Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on AI race: Focused on making our models as smart and capable as possible

00:01VERSUS EXPECTATIONS OF $99 BILLION. EITHER WAY, THE STOCK IS DOWN ALMOST 3% IN THE PREMARKET. >> AND OUR NEXT GUEST IS ON THE FRONT LINES OF THE AI REVOLUTION. JOINING US RIGHT NOW IS ANTHROPIC CO-FOUNDER AND CEO DARIO AMODEI. GREAT TO SEE YOU, SIR. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. ANDREW. >> SO HERE WE ARE. YOU JUST CAME OUT WITH A NEW MODEL LAST WEEK. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE BUZZING ABOUT THAT HERE. I THINK IT WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL FOR THE AUDIENCE TO UNDERSTAND HOW YOU SEE WHAT YOU'RE DOING, WHAT THE FOLKS AT GOOGLE ARE NOW DOING, WHAT OPENAI IS DOING, WHAT YOU THINK X AI IS DOING, SORT OF WHAT THAT ACTUALLY EVEN LOOKS LIKE ANYMORE, BECAUSE IT DOES SEEM LIKE EVERYBODY'S TRYING NOW ALL OF A SUDDEN TO DIFFERENTIATE IN DIFFERENT WAYS.

00:42>> THAT'S RIGHT. SO, YOU KNOW, I THINK WE'VE WE'VE PICKED A PATH THAT'S QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER PLAYERS. YOU KNOW ANTHROPIC SINCE THE BEGINNING, YOU KNOW, ANTHROPIC HAS THOUGHT IN TERMS OF SAFETY AND RELIABILITY OF AI SYSTEMS. AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE REALIZED IS THAT THAT WAS VERY SYNERGISTIC WITH WORKING WITH ENTERPRISES AS COMPARED TO CONSUMERS, BECAUSE ENTERPRISES REALLY THEY VALUE THE RELIABILITY, THEY VALUE THE TRUST, THEY VALUE THE LONG TERM RELATIONSHIP WITH CUSTOMERS. AND AND SO WE DECIDED TO PURSUE THE ENTERPRISE BUSINESS. WE HAVE, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE CONSUMER PRODUCTS, BUT THEY'RE NOT OUR MAJOR FOCUS. IT'S MAYBE 80 OVER 20 ON IT'S MAYBE 80 OVER 20 ON THE ENTERPRISE SIDE. AND SO THAT THAT REALLY ALLOWS

01:20US TO PROCEED IN A DIFFERENT WAY. RIGHT. WE DON'T HAVE TO DO ADS. WE DON'T HAVE TO FOCUS ON SHORT FORM VIDEO. WE DON'T HAVE TO FOCUS ON MAXIMIZING ENGAGEMENT. INSTEAD, WE ACTUALLY JUST FOCUS ON MAKING OUR MODELS AS SMART AND AS CAPABLE AS POSSIBLE, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT ENTERPRISES ARE LOOKING FOR. THEY'RE LOOKING FOR CAPABILITY. THEY'RE LOOKING FOR INTELLIGENCE. THEY'RE LOOKING FOR OPTIMIZING COMPLEX BUSINESS PROCESSES ACROSS THINGS LIKE FINANCE, CODING, PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES, MANUFACTURING, ENERGY, RIGHT. ALL THE THINGS THAT DRIVE THE ECONOMY. SO WE THINK OF THE WORK WE DO AS, AS MOST DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO DIRECTLY DRIVING GDP AND NOT ALL THIS, ALL THIS KIND OF INDIRECT OR COMPLEX STUFF LIKE MAXIMIZING

02:02ENGAGEMENT. >> BUT IS THE COMPLEX STUFF, VIDEO AND IMAGES AND ALL OF THAT. AND ULTIMATELY, DO YOU THINK THAT THOSE MODELS WILL BE ABLE TO DO WHAT YOUR MODELS DO? >> SO, YOU KNOW, I ACTUALLY THINK THERE'S A DIVERGENCE WHERE IF YOU'RE OPTIMIZING, IF YOU'RE OPTIMIZING FOR FOR CONSUMERS, RIGHT, YOU'RE TRYING TO BE AS ENGAGING AS POSSIBLE. YOU'RE TRYING TO BE AS ENTERTAINING AS POSSIBLE. I ACTUALLY DON'T THINK SOME OF THESE OTHER MODELS HAVE ENOUGH INCENTIVE TO GET SMARTER, HAVE ENOUGH INCENTIVE TO BECOME CAPABLE OF MORE TASKS ACROSS THE BOARD, AND WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO FOCUS ON THAT MORE. >> I MEAN, THAT THAT PROBABLY RESPONDS TO SOME. IT'S PROBABLY MUSIC TO THE EARS OF SOME INVESTORS. WE'VE SPOKEN WITH

02:42INVESTORS. SATYA NADELLA WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT THIS AT MICROSOFT. YOU KNOW, HIS POINT IS THAT IF WE DON'T SEE A BROADENING OF MORE THAN JUST THE BIG TECH COMPANIES USING THIS AI, IF WE DON'T SEE A BROADENING OF JUST THE WEALTHIEST NATIONS USING IT, THEN IT IS INDEED A BUBBLE THAT THERE'S TOO MUCH INFRASTRUCTURE THAT'S BEING BUILT UP. BUT MAYBE THAT SPEAKS TO WHO'S GOING TO PAY FOR IT AND WHO'S NOT. >> WELL, YOU KNOW, I MEAN, I THINK ACROSS THE BOARD, WE'RE BOTH TRYING TO GROW OUR REVENUE AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. OUR REVENUE GREW FROM 0 IN 2023 0 TO 100 MILLION IN 2024, 100 MILLION TO 1,000,000,020 25, 1 BILLION TO ALMOST 10 BILLION. SO IF WE CAN KEEP THAT CURVE GOING OR EVEN ANYWHERE CLOSE TO IT, THEN THEN YOU KNOW, THE,

03:23THE, THE INVESTMENTS WILL BE JUSTIFIED. BUT I THINK YOU BRING UP ANOTHER POINT THAT'S ALSO RELEVANT, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THE TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSES AND EVERYONE SHARES IN THE BENEFITS. THE STARTUPS AT SILICON VALLEY, YOU KNOW, ADOPT, ADOPT THIS TECHNOLOGY ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. I THINK IT'S A LITTLE HARDER TO GET INTO LARGE ENTERPRISES, ALTHOUGH WE'RE SPENDING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF TIME ON GO TO MARKET WORK TO TRY AND DRIVE THAT ENTERPRISE TRANSFORMATION AND GET ENTERPRISES TO ADOPT IT AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. BUT THEN, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALL KINDS OF COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD. SO, YOU KNOW, DIFFUSING THIS TECHNOLOGY ACROSS, NOT JUST THE DEVELOPED, BUT BUT THE DEVELOPING WORLD. I THINK

03:59THAT'S GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT. AND, YOU KNOW, WE'VE DONE WE'RE STARTING TO DO WORK WITH FOLKS LIKE THE GATES FOUNDATION. >> COULD YOU JUST ESTIMATE. >> TEN YEAR. >> REVENUE GROWTH? >> YOU KNOW, IT'S IT'S IT'S VERY IT'S VERY HARD TO SAY. ANYTHING I SAY IS GOING TO SOUND TOTALLY CRAZY. BUT IF YOU IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT AI IS CAPABLE OF, IF YOU HAVE THESE MODELS THAT ARE GETTING MORE AND MORE CAPABLE ACROSS A WIDE RANGE OF COGNITIVE TASKS, YOU KNOW, YOU LOOK AT ALL LABOR IN THE ECONOMY, THAT'S SOMETHING LIKE $50 TRILLION A YEAR. SO I COULD EASILY IMAGINE THAT THE REVENUE OF THE INDUSTRY OR EVEN SINGLE COMPANIES, IF IT'S EVEN 10% OF THAT, COULD BE $5 TRILLION A YEAR. NOW, THAT'S SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN

04:39THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD. THAT CREATES ALL KINDS OF PROBLEMS AS WELL AS CREATING ALL KINDS OF GROWTH. >> WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE GROWTH AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S OBVIOUSLY AN EXPECTATION THAT YOU'LL GO PUBLIC AS POTENTIALLY OPEN AI AND OTHERS DO AS WELL. HOW MUCH MORE CAPITAL ARE YOU GOING TO NEED TO RAISE BETWEEN NOW AND WHATEVER THAT MOMENT IS? BECAUSE THERE'S THERE'S SORT OF THE TECHNOLOGY PIECE ON ONE END AND THEN THERE'S THE CAPITAL RAISING PIECE. I DON'T KNOW IF YOU EVER GOT INTO THIS THINKING YOU WERE GOING TO BE A CAPITAL RAISER ALL DAY LONG. >> NOT REALLY. NO. SO, YOU KNOW, THE WAY I'VE THOUGHT ABOUT IT AND, YOU KNOW, WE TALKED ABOUT IT WHEN WE WHEN WE SPOKE AT WHEN WE SPOKE AT DEALBOOK IS

05:16THERE'S THIS KIND OF DIFFICULT PROBLEM, THIS CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT. WHICH IS THE REVENUE IS GROWING VERY FAST. YOU DON'T KNOW EXACTLY HOW FAST BECAUSE THE RATE OF, OF, OF ENTERPRISE DIFFUSION IS UNKNOWN. BUT, YOU KNOW, YOU DON'T KNOW WHETHER YOUR REVENUE NEXT YEAR IS GOING TO BE 10 BILLION. NOW, IS IT GOING TO BE 20 BILLION OR IS IT GOING TO BE 100 BILLION NEXT YEAR. YOU DON'T KNOW. YOU DON'T KNOW ANYWHERE BETWEEN THAT. AND YET YOU HAVE TO BUY THE DATA CENTER. >> SO WHAT DO YOU DO. >> 60 TO. >> 80%. >> FOR TEN YEARS STARTING 2024 TO 2028, 130 TO 150? >> WHICH MODEL IS TELLING YOU. >> THAT THIS IS CHATGPT? >> OOH, DON'T TELL HIM THAT I. >> I THOUGHT THEY'D LOWBALL IT. I DON'T. >> KNOW WHAT I MEAN. WHAT DO

05:53YOU DO WHEN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WHY. >> SO THERE THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT ARE YOUR BUFFER. THE FIRST THING THAT'S YOUR BUFFER IS, YOU KNOW, THE HIGHER YOUR MARGINS ARE, THE MORE YOU KNOW, THE YOU KNOW, THE MORE FAIRWAY YOU HAVE BETWEEN THE AMOUNT YOU HAVE TO BUY AND THE AMOUNT OF REVENUE YOU HAVE TO SUPPORT. SO ONE OF THE FORTUNATE THINGS ABOUT BEING IN THE ENTERPRISE BUSINESS IS THAT WE HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER MARGINS, AND ENTERPRISE SPENDING IS RELATIVELY PREDICTABLE IN COMPARISON TO CONSUMER SPENDING, WHICH IS VERY FICKLE, RIGHT? WE SEE GOOGLE AND OPENAI FIGHTING IT OUT OVER CONSUMER SPENDING. WE HAVE MORE STABILITY THAN ENTERPRISE. THE OTHER THING, OF COURSE, IS, YOU KNOW, WHILE

06:29YOU'RE GROWING, THAT REVENUE IS IS OF COURSE, IS OF COURSE RAISING MONEY. AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE DO THAT PERIODICALLY. YOU KNOW, WE RAISE WE R