Public transcript

Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239

By: Peter H. Diamandis
Length: 24 min
Language: English
Text from: the video's captions
Transcribed: 13 October 2026

Read the full transcript Open on YouTube

Notes in English.

Summary

In this on-stage conversation at Peter Diamandis's Abundance Summit, Elon Musk discusses the state of AI, saying we are currently in a "hard takeoff" with recursive self-improvement largely underway. He predicts the economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years, that Optimus 3 production starts this summer, and that AI and robots will eventually make money irrelevant. The conversation also touches on longevity, back pain, moon bases, Mars, and de-extinction.

Key points

Elon Musk says we are currently in a 'hard takeoff' of AI, with recursive self-improvement largely underway and possibly fully automated by end of year.
He predicts the economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years, absent a World War.
Optimus 3 is in final stages of completion, with slow production starting this summer and high volume around summer next year.
Grok is best at prediction metrics but currently behind on coding, which Musk expects to catch up by mid-year.
Musk believes AI and robots will produce so much that money will eventually stop being relevant, replaced by an economy of wattage and tonnage.
He estimates an 80% or better chance the future is great, with universal high income arriving through deflation.
He expects a moon base, people on Mars, and a mass driver on the moon within 10 years.
Musk wants a pet miniature woolly mammoth and would visit a real-life Jurassic Park despite risk of death.

Questions it answers

01:41Recursive self-improvement and AGI

Are we in recursive self-improvement yet, and how close is AGI?

Musk says we are already in the hard takeoff, with each AI model built by the one before it and humans increasingly out of the loop. Fully automated recursive self-improvement may arrive by end of this year.

We are in the hard takeoff right now
Grok is best at prediction but behind on coding
Coding catch-up expected by mid-year

07:53Predictions: 10x economy in 10 years

How big will the economy be in 10 years?

He predicts the economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years, absent a World War, and expects a moon base, people on Mars, and a mass driver on the moon in that timeframe.

10x economy in 10 years
Moon base and Mars settlements expected
Mass driver on the moon within 10 years

10:49Optimus 3 timeline

When can we buy an Optimus robot?

Optimus 3 is in final stages of completion and will be the most advanced robot in the world. Production starts slowly this summer, with high volume around summer next year and an improved design each year.

Optimus 3 production starts this summer
High volume by summer next year
New robot design every year

14:17Universal high income and the end of money

How do we get to universal high income?

He says AI and robots will produce so many goods and services that output far exceeds the money supply, causing deflation and universal high income. Eventually money stops being relevant and AI cares about wattage and tonnage.

Deflation from AI-driven abundance
Universal high income likely
Money eventually becomes irrelevant

19:09Democracy and the singularity

Can democracy and institutions survive the singularity?

He says it's hard to predict inside the singularity, but the future will be very entertaining. He estimates 80% or better odds it's great and has decided to be more optimistic.

Hard to predict inside the singularity
~80% chance the future is great
AI may help solve the budget deficit

22:53Back pain, health, and de-extinction

What did Musk say about back pain and woolly mammoths?

Musk jokes that solving back pain would massively raise human happiness, mentions his own neck surgeries, and says he'd love a pet miniature woolly mammoth and a real-life Jurassic Park.

Back pain is a huge happiness problem
Musk wants a mini woolly mammoth
Would risk death for a real Jurassic Park

Notes

AI and Recursive Self-Improvement

Musk says we are already in a "hard takeoff" — every successive AI model is built by the one before it, with humans gradually less in the loop.
Fully automated recursive self-improvement may arrive by end of this year.
Grok is best at prediction, which Musk calls arguably the best metric for intelligence; Grok 4.20 is "really really good."
Grok is currently behind on coding; Musk expects to catch up and exceed competitors by the middle of this year.

Scale of Future Intelligence

If Earth harnessed a million times more energy than current electricity usage, it would still be only about a millionth of the sun's output.
Intelligence at that scale would "solve everything you can possibly think of."
Humans will become a minority, then a microscopic minority, of intelligence in the solar system.

Economic Predictions

Musk predicts the economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years, barring a World War.
He expects a moon base, people on Mars, and a mass driver on the moon within 10 years.

Optimus and Tesla Manufacturing

Optimus 3 is in final stages of completion and will be "by far the most advanced robot in the world."
Production starts slowly this summer, reaching high volume around summer next year; Optimus 4 design likely next year.
Tesla has ~150k employees, ~100,000 in factories; no layoffs planned, but output per human will get "nutty high."

Universal High Income and Money

Musk estimates ~80% likelihood the future is great.
Goods and services output will far exceed money supply, causing deflation and universal high income.
Money will eventually stop being relevant; AI will care about wattage and tonnage, like an Iain Banks-style culture.

Health and Fun

Musk jokes that solving back pain would raise average human happiness; he's had three neck surgeries.
He wants a pet miniature woolly mammoth and would visit a real-life Jurassic Park even with risk of death.

Text from the video's own captions. Summary and notes written by AI from the transcript, so check anything important against the recording.