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audience and as you can see
still trying to monetize hope.

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Yeah, yeah, you look like you're
in great shape. I'm doing great.

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Last time I saw you >> sort
of youth serum things going on or

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what? It's it's our longevity X prize.

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We're we're getting there, buddy. We're
getting there. I think I think in our

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last conversation you're
getting on board with the idea of

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extended longevity, yes?

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Uh Yeah. Okay. [laughter] I'll
leave it at that. Some degree. I

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mean like I don't know if we want
everyone to live forever or whatever,

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but I think uh health span and and not

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you know, having an extended period
[clears throat] of senescence where

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where you're just drooling on yourself
sounds like a good idea. We we want to

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avoid that. Yeah. So, first off,

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congratulations on the merger of SpaceX

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and xAI. Baller move. Uh going to power

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humanity's first Dyson swarm?

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So, I'm curious uh

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Uh it truly truly is.
What's your timeline for launching these

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data centers and how much bandwidth do
you think you can get in the first year?

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Give us a sense of the speed at which

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you're going to be making this happen.

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Uh yeah, so SpaceX is

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um has filed SpaceX is in
a quiet period. I I can't

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actually uh tell you things
that would cause a problems.

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Uh yeah. >> [laughter]

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>> I'll I'll leave it I'll leave
it at that. I appreciate that.

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But I can't wait for

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uh for the speed. You know, we had a

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conversation here on Monday with with

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Eric Schmidt uh and with

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one of the leads from one of the other
hyper scalers. I won't mention who, but

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I'm curious where you feel we are in

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recursive self-improvement. Are we

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there? Do you see Grok doing recursive

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self-improvement at this point? And how

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and what's the timeline for AGI and ASI?

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Give us a sense of that. Yeah, I I

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I think we're we've been on recursive

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improvement for a while here. Um

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you say if if it's really if you mean
by like recursive self-improvement without

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a human in the loop.

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Is that what you mean? I do.
I I on the on the AI software side.

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I mean humans are gradually getting less
and less in the loop on the recursive

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self-improvement. So, you know, every

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successive model

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uh is is built by the one before it.

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So, that that that that is
happening to a large degree, but

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it's it's not yet fully automated.

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Um it may be there

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end of this year, but I'm not
going to wait until the next year.

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Do you see a hard takeoff at that point?

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We're in the hard takeoff. Okay.

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Right now. Yes. I mean, look at

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I mean at this point

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I go to sleep, there's some
massive AI breakthrough,

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and when I wake up there's another one.

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Yes. Yeah, it's hard
to keep track, honestly.

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It's a It's a bit of a head spinner.

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Yeah, well, I think a lot of that head
spinning is happening from you, too.

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Yeah. Uh Well, you know,
Grok is doing pretty

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well, and in some metrics by some metrics
it's the best. For example, it's uh

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the best at predicting things,
which I you know, it's arguably the the

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best metric for intelligence.

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Um the new Grok 4.20

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is it's really really good. Um

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we're we're currently behind on coding.

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Um The reason I was put put late for this

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was that I was just in a giant sort
of all hands sort of on coding, just going

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through all of the things
that need to happen to

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uh essentially catch up and exceed
uh our competitors on uh coding.

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Um which I think I think we'll do. I feel
Yeah, we'll we should probably get there

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by the middle of this year. Um And uh

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And then I I think
people don't don't quite

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realize just how much
intelligence there will be or you

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know, just how far it will
exceed human intelligence.

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To a degree that is uh
impossible to fully understand.

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Um but you can certainly
imagine a situation where we

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Let's say if let's say a million
times more energy is harnessed

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uh than all of Earth's current electricity

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usage. That would still only be roughly a

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millionth of the sun's energy output.

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So, essentially if you increase Earth's
economy by a factor of a million, it's

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still roughly a trillion So,
since we're a trillionth of the

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sun's energy, if you increase
Earth's economy in in in terms of

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electricity usage by roughly a million,

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you'll be roughly 1 millionth only of

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the sun's energy harnessed.
But what is it What is What is an

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economy or an intelligence using
a million times more electricity than all

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of Earth's civilization think
about or look like or do?

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It's going to be something
pretty magnificent.

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Uh

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The challenge will be even vaguely

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appreciating that level of intelligence.

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Uh but it's it's safe to say it will it
will solve everything you can possibly

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think of. Yes.
>> Uh longevity being, you know, You're

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certainly one of them. Um And um

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I I I do enjoy your
unrelenting optimism. Um

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Thank you, pal.
I see you I see you if you uh

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Hope. Hope. Yeah, exactly. You've

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taken to heart monetizing hope, uh which

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is pretty funny. Yeah, it was it was

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It was Grok's It was Grok's marketing
advice to me when you roasted me on

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>> [laughter] >> Right. Okay.
Grok was seeing you and saying you

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monetize hope. But hey, if you you're
going to manage to further monetizing

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misery >> Yes, but yes. Um

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For sure. Yeah.

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Um But but yeah, just the the

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when you when you have AI
AI and robots are going to

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increase the

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the like economic output or or by by so

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many orders of magnitude we we
we cannot possibly comprehend it.

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We're likely in the very
short time to become

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a minority, then a vast minority, then
a microscopic minority of intelligence on

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this planet. Um Yes,
not even on this planet, but in the

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solar system. >> Yes, for sure. Because um

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Like like if

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if you know, your best case outcome for

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uh Earth for intelligence
is roughly 1 billionth

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of the sun's energy.

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Uh that's your best case outcome.

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Uh if you if you if you generate
intelligence only on Earth. Intercept

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it, right? Yes. Yes,
cuz roughly one roughly half a

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billionth of the sun's energy hits Earth,
and that's the vast majority of

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energy that that's out there
um that that we can access.

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Uh so uh really
the intelligence in the solar

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system will be many
orders of magnitude greater

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than the intelligence on Earth itself.

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How May I ask you a question, Elon? Um

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how far out can you see? How many years

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out can you make reasonable
predictions right now?

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It's hard to predict the

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the path exactly, especially if it cuz

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often things are kind of an S curve

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or a series of S curves
where it starts off slow

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grows exponentially hits linear
zone and then goes logarithmic.

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Um that generally has been what what I've
seen with the breakthroughs in in AI AI

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for example is you'll you'll
there'll be some breakthrough it'll do

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have an S curve but and then looks like
it's just going to go to infinity but

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then you hit logarithmic returns until
there's another breakthrough. Yeah. Um

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so progress in AI is just a sort
of series of you know sort of

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overlapping S curves

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um or connected S curves. Um

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I mean there was a point where you could
probably predict out a decade or two

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decades. What are your thoughts now?

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>> Yeah.

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Okay, this is going to sound pretty crazy.

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That's okay. We we've been we've
been talking about crazy all night.

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>> there's a separate acceptable audience

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to wild prognostications. Yes.

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Um

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>> [snorts] >> I'd say
the economy is 10 times this its

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current size in 10 years. Greater than.

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Okay.

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Um Yeah, you

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>> really saying something. Yeah, you said

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triple digit growth in in 5 plus years

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from now on on GDP. And 10x the economy.

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But in terms of your ability to >>
Like I I I feel like that's uh that's

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that's a 10x in roughly

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10 years um I feel is a

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I I actually feel like
comfortable prediction

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uh with There's obviously
if there's like World

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War or something um that
that could put a kink in those

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plans uh or those expectations. Yeah. Uh

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but in the absence of World War current

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trends continue I would say the

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the economy 10x in 10 years. Love it.

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Can you give us an We had a bunch
of robots >> have a base on the moon. Yes.

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And we'll And we'll have >> have
people on Mars. And we'll have mass

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drivers on the moon. Yes. Um I think so.
In 10 years, I think I think

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we'll have a mass driver on the moon in

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10 years. I love it. Uh Gerard K.

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O'Neill's vision uh being fulfilled.

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Uh we had uh four robots
on stage here this year um

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on the at the Abundance Summit. I I look

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forward to Optimus. I'm curious, Optimus

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3 timeline and in [clears throat]

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particular when can I buy one or two?

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When's uh when do you expect
Optimus to go into commercial

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uh for commercial sale?
Or will you be leasing it?

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Well, we're in the final stages of
completion of Optimus 3, which is really

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going to be by far the most advanced
robot in the world. Nothing's even

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close. Yeah. Um

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In fact, I haven't even seen any seen
any demos of robots that are as good as

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Optimus 3, frankly. Maybe they're out
there or they're secret or something, I

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don't know, but um

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um You know, I I I have to make sure I'm

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saying things that are reasonably public
as well, of course. Uh Of course. We're

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streaming this on X. Yeah. Okay,
this is pretty public knowledge, I guess.

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>> Yes. >> [laughter] >> Um

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Yeah, I I I think we'll
start production on Optimus 3

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this summer.
Um but but very slow at first.

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Yeah. Um like it you
know the sort of classic S

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curve ramp of manufacturing
units versus time.

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Um and then probably reach
high volume production

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around summer next year. Uh

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and then um

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you know, we'll we'll have Optimus 4

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you know, the design likely
next year. I got to try to

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release a new robot design every year
and I'm an improved robot design every

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year. When when Dave Blunden and I
were at the Gigafactory, uh it was

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extraordinary experience, 11 and a half
million square feet for the Tesla. And

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then I think you said you're building
out 9 and a half million square feet for

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Optimus there as well, which
is uh which is extraordinary.

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Um let's let's >> 9 square feet
[clears throat] round numbers. Yeah.

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Yeah. Yeah. I had to That'll be that'll
be that'll be quite That that's going to

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be a a a a a new factory
design, too. Like it's

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still not different from other factories.

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How far before we have robots building
robots? I mean, you automated so much of

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the Gigafactory already uh
where there are humans playing a

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small role. Do the robots just play the

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role that humans are
playing in that regard?

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Uh we still have a lot of humans

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building things. Mhm. Um

215
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you know, Tesla direct employees are
uh building things uh or like basically

216
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people in the factory are either building
or managing people who are building.

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Uh roughly 100,000.

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Uh so we have a lot of people. Is it To-

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Tesla total head count is around 150k.

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Of of which 2/3 are, you know,
in the factory in one form or another.

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And then our suppliers there's probably
uh maybe a a million or two million people

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in our suppliers type of thing.
So, it's it's a lot of people.

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Um What what we do expect
that is that is that the

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output per per person
at Tesla becomes very, very

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high. Yeah. So, we're not
planning any like layoffs

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or reductions in personnel. In fact, we

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will increase our head count. Um

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But, the output per human at Tesla is

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going to get nutty high.
When we were to Like you can't really

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believe it, you know.
When we were together um

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we discussed the idea of sustainable
abundance on our podcast and you

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reinforced the idea that we have
a coming age of universal high income

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uh which has become a point
of discussion beyond UBI. But, I'm just

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wondering if you have any thoughts
on how we get there. Have you reflected on

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that any further?
And and more so, you know, we talked

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about a time frame of civil unrest, you

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know, two, three, four, five years

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uh probably uh a lot of COVID-like

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checks in the interim until
we get to a demonetization

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uh and a you know, deflation that leads
us to UHI. Any more reflections on that?

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Cuz that's a really People
need that hope and that vision.

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Yeah. >> I mean, to be clear, I don't I
don't I don't think we should be sort of

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complacent. We need to We
do need to be careful because

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the future is a range of possible
outcomes and uh they're not all great.

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Um But, I I at this point I I I I do
agree with you that it's it's likely to be

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great. Um you know,
it's probably 80% likely,

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maybe more likely to be great.

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And uh and I and I do think we'll have
universal high income. We're we're We're

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just issuing money to people, you know,

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and and they are really just uh

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because the output of goods and services

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will far so far exceed
the money supply that um

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you know, that that that effectively have
deflation cuz just deflation is just the

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ratio of the outputs of goods
and services to the money supply.

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Um so, that that's uh so if you if you

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if the rate of growth of of goods and
services far exceeds the rate of growth

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of the money supply,
which I predict will happen,

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uh then uh you'll have deflation.

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Yes. And a lot of a lot of people spinning
up new companies, competing against each

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other, driving the price down, and
increasing the variability and deflation.

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Faster and faster. Yeah,
it's basically AI and robots are

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going to make so much stuff
and provide so many services

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that uh they'll actually run out of things

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to do for the humans.
They'll just run out of things to do for

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the humans. And then
they they'll you know,

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there's there's only so much that humans
can even express that they want.

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So, you go back to my example of like if
you go a million times greater than the

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US economy,

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you you've long since
saturated all human desire.

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Uh you know, like maybe like even
if you go a thousand times more

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than our current economy, thousand times,
you you you've probably already

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saturated saturated the human anything
people can think of that they want.

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So, do do you think the the value
of money is going to significantly

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decrease? Will it Will
we go post-capitalist?

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Yeah, I think money will stop being
relevant at some point in the future.

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So, just as you're becoming a >>
it's it's it's it's probably something

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like an in-banks uh
culture sort of future.

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Um And I I think the AI

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down the road will really

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not use uh human currency. It will just

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care about uh power and mass,
wattage and tonnage.

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Yeah. It's kind of ironic
then, right? Just as

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you're becoming a multi-trillionaire,
money starts to have less value. Um

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Yeah. Pretty much. Um Uh

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yeah. You know, this this all this stuff
is just really just trillionaire sort of

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represents like some percentage
ownership in companies that I have

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>> Yeah. uh you know, built and it's
not like sitting in a bank account,

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you know, it's just it's just literally
I own a percentage of the companies. The

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companies are doing lots of useful things.
The value of the company grows. I own a

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percentage of the companies and that's the
sums up to that number which seems high.

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Yeah. You know, it's I I I
was interviewed by somebody who was asking

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me about your your drive,
what drives you. And

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I said Elon's driven
to solve problems. He's

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driven to make

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life in the world better by just solving
the biggest problems over and over and

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over again. And if someone else were
solving them, he wouldn't need to. But

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no one else is solving them.
So, I just want to say, >> Yeah.

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thank you for that, pal. Thank you for
that. Uh you're welcome. Um >> [applause]

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>> I >> [applause] >> I I
am curious. Do you think that

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democracy and our modern institutions

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can keep up with a supersonic tsunami

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coming our way? Are they just going
to fall in its way? They're just going to

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break down. How do we deal?

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I mean, it's called the singularity for
a reason, you know, which [laughter] is

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that it's hard to predict what happens
in the in the singularity. I mean,

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Grok's logo is the singularity.

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00:19:19,360 --> 00:19:22,597
>> I love it. It's a beautiful logo behind
you, by the way. It's gorgeous. Yeah,

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00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:28,197
thank you. Uh yeah.
It It's sort of the light The light The

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The The halo around a a black hole is that
the mass and light are falling in type

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00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:37,077
of thing. Um It's hard It's
hard to know what happens

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inside the singularity.
Um but it's going to be very

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interesting. I We're going to live in
The future will be very entertaining. Of

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that I'm confident. >> Yes. Um

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And uh

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I I think also like AI and robotics also
I mean we're going to solve our budget

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deficit, frankly, and and not
just go bankrupt as a country.

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Um So

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I I'm I'm You know, you've had
an influence on me in that I'm like just

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I've just decided to be more optimistic.

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It's like we just should
be more optimistic.

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00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,717
>> Thank you, pal.
>> I wasn't an optimist, but I was like

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maybe dwelling a little too much on the
negative stuff. It's all It's all upside

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00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,677
being an optimist.
And a realist a little bit.

324
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,837
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
You don't want to be complacent or just

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assume everything's going to go
well, but try to make it go well.

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Um But I mean, there will be some
pretty amazing things that happen. So, if

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you've got uh humanoid robots
that are that have very high dexterity

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and uh and and and are
incredibly smart, it

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means that everyone on Earth

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will have access to better
medical care than than uh

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than the richest person on Earth, which
by the way, I would say like, you know,

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if I'm allegedly the richest person
in the world I think actually sovereigns

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00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,997
are richer than me, by the way. But But
it's like I like you know, I like I had

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00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,117
to have like an like a neck surgery
three times cuz the first two ones were

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00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:10,157
done wrong. You know,
like this is I'm like what the you know.

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00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:15,237
Um >> [laughter] >> So And and
I'm like my back still hurts a

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00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,677
little bit. I'm like can AI
please solve back pain? That

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00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,917
would be a huge win. And I think it will.

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00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:26,677
Yep. So you know, back pain sucks.
I think that's maybe like a

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you know, someone asked why do people
get grumpy when they get older? It's cuz

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back pain. You know, it's like if
your back hurts all the time you

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00:21:32,120 --> 00:21:36,037
can't sleep well, you're going to be
grumpy. We had uh Um but You you We had

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00:21:36,120 --> 00:21:40,437
David Sinclair on stage this morning
and he's going into human trials with ERW

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100 his partial epigenetic reprogramming.
And uh one of the one of

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the papers recently published shows it uh

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enables joint repair.

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And so back pain may be one of the

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things that uh it eliminates.
So Uh That'll be amazing. Yeah, for sure.

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For sure. >> Every honestly
average happiness level

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for humans would just go up so
tremendously if you just solve back pain

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because it's not a question of of if
you will get back pain, it's when you

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know, you'll get back pain.
I I I keep on invite

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I keep on inviting you to come down
to Fountain Life in in in Dallas. We'll

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00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,797
we'll help you out,
but sometime when you have time.

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00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,677
>> you have like what do you I understand
like you can get like MRI and CAT scans

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00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,717
and everything, but like what do
you do with that? You know, it's like

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00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,717
I'm happy to happy to send you the list.

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00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,117
I'll I'll DM you the list of therapeutics.

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00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:31,847
>> some or something. Yeah, exactly.

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00:22:31,930 --> 00:22:33,950
>> [laughter]

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>> Uh you know, um listen, you've been so

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generous. Next up on stage with me is

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00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,797
one of another great Moonshot
entrepreneur Ben Lam who runs Colossal

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00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,837
uh the de-extinction company. Uh you
know, the woolly mammoth and 15 other

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00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:53,157
species. I heard I heard you say you
might want a mini woolly mammoth. Is

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00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,837
that Is that true? >> Yeah,
I think it'd be really cool to

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have a pet miniature woolly mammoth.

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00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:02,197
That'd be pretty epic. Okay.
I'll I'll put a word in with you

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00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:03,947
for you with uh with with Ben.

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00:23:04,030 --> 00:23:05,957
>> [laughter] >> They're
very adorable. Little things

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00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,957
just running around trumpeting away and
it's like look at this this >> [laughter]

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00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:11,637
>> would be a great little pet.

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00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:17,077
Amazing. And also I can somebody
please do Jurassic Park in real life?

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00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,797
I'd definitely go out even if
there was some risk of death.

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00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,637
That'd be super cool.
I think if anybody's going to do that

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00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,637
it's it's Ben Lam in Colossal. He's re-
he's engineering living life products.

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00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:35,517
Someone asked him recently if he can make
a Pikachu and he said probably. I think

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00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,160
Yeah.

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00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,597
Well, Jurassic Jurassic World or whatever
that would be great. All right,

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00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,397
I'll ask him. Elon,
so grateful for you coming and

381
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,437
joining us and sharing. Thank you
my Thank you my friend. Let's give it up

382
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,480
for Elon Musk.

383
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,317
I have the power.
Nothing's going to stop us.

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00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,420
>> [music]

385
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,160
>> You have the power.
