Public transcript

“Russia and Ukraine are inventing the future of war”: former Google CEO Eric Schmidt | The Economist

By: The Economist
Length: 38 min
Language: English
Text from: the video's captions
Transcribed: 14 October 2026

Read the full transcript Open on YouTube

Notes in English.

Summary

In an interview recorded in Kyiv, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt tells The Economist that Russia and Ukraine are jointly inventing the future of war. He warns that Russia has matched Ukraine's pace of innovation with far greater resources, citing ballistic missiles, jet Shaheds, a coming satellite network, glide bombs and mobilization. He argues Ukraine needs Western money and scaling help, insists humans must stay in every military decision involving AI, and proposes a 'no surprises' treaty between the US and China rather than an unverifiable AI pause.

Key points

Eric Schmidt says Russia has matched Ukraine's innovation slope but with far greater resources, moving toward a strategy of total war.
He lists five Russian advances: ballistic missiles, jet Shaheds, mobilization, the Rusevet satellite network, and glide bombs, which Ukraine cannot overcome alone.
Jet Shaheds use a Chinese-parts mesh network with relay drones to stream 8K video of targets, and up to 80,000 may be used against Kyiv and other towns by end of December.
Schmidt argues there is no technical restriction on using Starlink over Russia; it is a political decision for the US government.
He distinguishes terminal machine-vision guidance, which is just good engineering, from true AI systems that learn and reason.
He insists a human must be involved in every military decision, warning that fully autonomous AI could commit war crimes.
He says the US and European militaries are change-resistant, and Europe should license cheaper, better Ukrainian technology.
On China, he proposes a 'no surprises' treaty and a concept of mutual AI destruction rather than an unverifiable pause.

Questions it answers

00:00The future of war in Ukraine

What did Eric Schmidt take away from visiting Ukraine's front lines?

He says visiting Ukraine's front lines gives a dystopian glimpse of the future of war, and that Russia and Ukraine are together inventing that future.

War is far worse than war movies suggest
Russia and Ukraine are jointly inventing the future of warfare

01:36Russia's total war strategy

Why is Schmidt more worried than since the early days of the invasion?

Russia is now innovating at a similar slope to Ukraine but with far more resources, across ballistic missiles, jet Shaheds, mobilization, a new satellite network, and glide bombs.

Five Russian advances together are almost impossible for Ukraine to overcome alone
Ukraine needs Western money and help with scaling

04:04Jet Shaheds

What makes jet Shaheds so dangerous and can Ukraine stop them?

Russia added jet engines to Shahed drones and built a mesh relay network giving 8K video of targets; up to 80,000 may be used against Kyiv by end of December, though Ukrainian counter-solutions are in test.

Jet Shaheds are the major killers away from the front line
At least five Ukrainian companies have solutions in testing

06:12Starlink over Russia

Why can't Ukraine use Starlink over Russia?

There is no technical restriction; it is a policy choice by SpaceX that the US government could change or order otherwise.

Schmidt favors giving Ukraine tools to end the war by force
The president can order a national security action on a private company

09:13AI versus machine vision

Is AI already being used in this war?

Terminal machine vision is good engineering, not AI; true AI learns and reasons, and its military use is only beginning.

Terminal guidance failures are often due to jamming
Precision weapons cause almost no civilian damage and almost no survivable injuries

14:59Autonomy and the laws of war

Should AI be allowed to make targeting decisions autonomously?

He insists a human must be involved in every military decision, arguing historical accountability like Nuremberg shows constraints survive even in war.

Fully autonomous commands could lead to war crimes
The solution to Russian escalation is to help Ukraine, not abandon the rules

22:06Reforming US and European militaries

Are Western militaries adapting fast enough?

Both systems are change-resistant due to politics, jobs programs and loss aversion; Europe should license cheaper, better Ukrainian technology.

Ukraine could be the vehicle for Europe's defense transformation
Ukrainian factories work 12 hours a day, six or seven days a week

28:32China and AI arms control

What do Ukraine's lessons mean for China and AI arms control?

A Taiwan conflict would likely be a drone war rather than a ship war, and China lacks recent combat experience; he proposes a 'no surprises' treaty and mutual AI destruction instead of an unverifiable pause.

China has not fought a war in 50 years
Schmidt believes AI can stay under human control and alignment

Notes

Russia's shift to total war

Eric Schmidt, speaking in Kyiv, says Russia is now innovating at a similar slope to Ukraine but with far more resources.
He cites five Russian advances: ballistic missiles Ukraine cannot counter (Patriots are in short supply), jet Shaheds, talk of large mobilization, the Rusevet satellite network (possibly a year away), and powerful glide bombs keeping the front line static.
Ukraine needs Western money and help with scaling; it has courage but not the capability to scale.

Jet Shaheds

Russia added small jet engines (obtainable from China) to Shahed drones, using them on more than half of Shaheds rather than the expected 10%.
They built a mesh network with relay drones circling between Belarus and Kyiv, enabling 8K video of targets; one hit the central window of the SBU headquarters.
Reports suggest plans for up to 80,000 jet Shaheds against Kyiv and other towns by end of December; at least five Ukrainian companies have solutions in test.

Starlink and ballistic missiles

There is no technical restriction preventing satellite services over Russia; it is a policy of SpaceX and a political question for the US government.
Ukraine has one effective ballistic missile, the 'flamingo' missile, but cannot scale production.

AI versus machine vision

Terminal guidance ('last mile') is good computer engineering, not AI; true AI systems learn and reason.
Failures in terminal guidance are often due to jamming, as seen when a Switchblade 600 and a HIMARS both missed a target.
Precision means almost no civilian damage and almost no survivable injuries.

Autonomy and the laws of war

Schmidt insists a human must be involved in every military decision; an 'attack this country, call me when you're done' command is unacceptable.
He cites the Nuremberg trials as evidence that restraints and accountability survive even in war.

Military reform and China

US and European militaries are change-resistant due to politics, jobs programs, and loss aversion; Europe should license Ukrainian technology.
A Taiwan conflict would likely be a drone war, not a ship war; big ships are easy targets.
On US-China AI competition: no pause is possible; he proposes a 'no surprises' treaty, cyber limits, and 'mutual AI destruction' — the ability to shut down the other side's data centers.
He remains optimistic that AI can stay under human control and alignment.

Text from the video's own captions. Summary and notes written by AI from the transcript, so check anything important against the recording.