WEBVTT

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Let's get started with the show.
Our first guest tonight is someone we've

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been very excited we've been trying
to get them on the show for many years. He

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finally agreed and he's here tonight.

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Everyone please give a warm welcome to

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Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft.

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>> [cheering and applause]

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>> Hello. >> [applause]

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>> Now Satya, I have to start by making a

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confession which is that I have not been

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a regular user of a Microsoft AI product

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since 2023 when when one of them
tried to break up my marriage.

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Um Unsuccessfully I should add. My wife IS

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RIGHT THERE. >> [applause]

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>> THOSE WERE THE DAYS WHEN
WE DIDN'T [laughter] have

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Think about a world without guardrails.

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>> But so much has been happening
at Microsoft with AI since then. So just

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catch us up like what what for people
who may not have tuned in a little

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while, what have you
guys been up to in AI?

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>> Yeah, I mean, look um

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the fundamental thing that I feel we're

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about to move from um is not
talking about AI as a one

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thing

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to sort of having even a mental picture

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of what is an ecosystem

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that is sort of driven by AI, right?
So today if you think about it even since

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when you first used Sydney to now,
it has been about frontier model you sort

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of talked about Fable, what have you.

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But if we are ever going to transition
to an economy that is driven by AI, it

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can't be about one model, it can't
be about three firms, it has to be

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something that's broadly felt where the

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economy is at the frontier, not a firm

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or a model is at the frontier. So

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Microsoft is a platform company, to me
that's what we are at up to, right? So

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to me we had our developer conference
last week. It was all about, "Hey, can

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we build a platform and the tools where
every enterprise in every country can

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operate at the frontier?" To me, that's
the question. To be saying, "Hey, my

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model does this, but the economy is

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growing at 2%." means this is not going

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to end well. Unless we sort of really
get to a place where the economy is

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inflecting in terms of its economic
growth and it's broad-spread because the

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frontier benefits are. That's what
happened in electricity and every other

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technology which was a
general-purpose technology.

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>> Let me ask about one of the platform

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shifts that you signaled at Build last
week when you announced Project Solara.

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You said it would be agent-first

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hardware, kind of next-generation
set of devices that would have agents

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running them. Tell us a little bit more
about that what that looks like. Like,

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can you give us an example of maybe
what Project Solara looks like?

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>> uh, Casey, we did at Build which were
interesting, right? One was we took the

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PC itself. In fact, Jensen had done it

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the previous, uh, night at Comdex, uh,
at, uh, Computex where he talked about,

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you know, if you the the picture I one
of the my favorite pictures was Jensen

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with the desktops, the laptops, and
because the and he obviously had the RTX

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chip, which is a new SOC, uh,
with essentially a petaflop of

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compute, right? Right on your PC. So,

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that was about new functionality

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coming to the old form factor, right?

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So, think about the what I describe
as unmetered intelligence, right? So, the

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fact that you can have a Windows computer
that can run a one bill, you know,

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a trillion parameter model locally, uh,
I think it's going to be very needed,

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uh, if you're going
to ever have token, I mean,

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agents running 24/7. But then, the

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question it sets up is in a world where

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we have these models

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and these agents that are long-running,

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can I have like a badge?

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Uh, right? If I'm I'm in a hospital and

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I'm walking to from station to station.

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Can I just take out this device, which

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can scan, which can input, which can

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take my speech output, and turn it into

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a prompt? Um that is what I think an

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agent-first device looks like, right?

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So, it's sort of really a new
The centrality of the phone, I think, is

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still going to be there for a lot
of apps that we use. But in agent world,

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you kind of have that ambient

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intelligence that is like a sense of

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feel that then works with your models.

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And so, that's what our goal is, to

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invent the new form factors that are not

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beholden to the old form
factors for this functionality.

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>> It's super interesting, and I want
to hear a lot more about it. We have many

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more questions about AI, but I wanted
to ask about one more device that has been

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in the news today, which is the Xbox.

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Um the leaders of the Xbox division put
out a memo today saying that we should

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expect a hard reset of Xbox coming soon.

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They said that there are massive
increases in the prices of components,

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and that Xbox might need a new business
model. So, as a big gamer who's enjoyed

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many happy hours on Xbox, Satya, I have
to ask, what is your strategy for Xbox?

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>> Yeah, so look, in fact, we're you know,

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this is the 25th year of Xbox.

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Um and we're very
thrilled about the progress

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we have made. I mean, gaming, in an
interesting way, at Microsoft is older

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than even Windows and Office,
right? The first

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app we built was the Flight Simulator.

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And so, it's got a long heritage. Xbox

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itself has been there for 24 5 years.

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The challenge now for us is to think

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about how do you innovate both in

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hardware as well as in the games going

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forward in a world in an economically
viable way, right? I think one of the

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things that Asha, who's just taken over
Xbox, put out is that we've invested a

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lot. No one can accuse Microsoft of not

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having invested

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for the last 25 years. And now we have

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to turn this into a sustainable business

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that delivers what is fundamentally the

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one of the best sources of entertainment

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still. The challenge we have
is we're not the been monetizing that

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entertainment. In fact,
if anything we've been subsidizing that

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entertainment. In fact, like there's
more monetization of Xbox games

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happening on YouTube than at Microsoft.

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And so that doesn't mean we go do things
that are unnatural. We want us to do

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what is really our job, which is to build
great games, build great hardware,

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but we've got to do it in an economically
sustainable way. So I think

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Asha is really 100 days in and she put
out a post saying in the next 100 days

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she's going to take a fresh look
and make sure we deliver on what our fans

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expect of us both on the hardware
side or on the publishing side.

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>> I mean, can you give us just any
more detail? Like like when I hear that I

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think, okay, so maybe like the Xbox gets
way more expensive, the games get way

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more expensive. Like is there any sort
of like carrot you can offer the gamers?

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>> Like I I think we have to find ways to

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deliver the games at which

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it's economically relevant for the

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customer and for us. So today there's a

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issue, in fact, unfortunately because of

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what's happening with the cloud and AI,
the prices have gone up, right? It's

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happening with PCs, it's happening
with phones, Xbox is impacted

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as well. So the scarcity of the

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semiconductor supply and memory in

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particular

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having a massive impact on consumer
electronics all up. That's a temporal

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thing. That I think
we'll get through. It is

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not going to be a permanent. But there
is a permanent thing, which is what's

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the Xbox model going forward. And that's
where if you think about it, like PCs

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and consoles both have their place.

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Obviously, mobile has people play
and elsewhere. And so we have to now bring

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it all together while staying
true to what we've always done.

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>> Satya, I want to take you back
in a time machine. The year is 2023.

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The board of OpenAI has just fired Sam

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Altman, one of Microsoft's biggest

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partners. You and your team spent a

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harried weekend trying to pull together

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an entirely new division of Microsoft

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Microsoft Advanced AI Research to sort

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of catch the employees that are making a

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mass exodus from OpenAI. You're ordering
laptops. You're opening up an office in

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San Francisco so that all these people
have a place to go work. Uh the company

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looks like it's on the verge of collapse.
Uh and then nothing happens.

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Then then Sam gets rehired and OpenAI
stands back up on its feet. Um and I

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want to present you as part of this time
machine experiment with a piece of rare

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merchandise, which I recently acquired

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from an OpenAI employee, which is a

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Microsoft Advanced AI Research

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sweatshirt. >> That is awesome.

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>> To be clear,
this division never existed

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and I was told by the person who made
this that they had to sort of fudge a

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little bit on the the sort of copying
and printing shop application, which

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made them prove that they were
a Microsoft employee >> [laughter]

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>> to to get this.
But this is for you if you ever want to

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>> Thank you. Thank you so much.

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>> down memory lane. >> Oh, man.
That weekend, I remember that

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forever. And thank you for this. But all
I remember, quite frankly, the weekend

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is India getting thrashed by Australia
in cricket. That was the >> [laughter]

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>> the more tragic thing. >> So,

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if that had happened, in the world where
all of these OpenAI employees end up

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working at Microsoft in a new Advanced
AI Research division run by Sam Altman

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and Greg Brockman,
in that world is Microsoft better or

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worse off with AI than it is today in

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this world?

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>> Look, we're thrilled that Greg and Sam

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made it back to OpenAI and they are

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where they are and they're now, as you

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said, our father S1 or what have you and

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look, it's fascinating,
right? When we initially

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um took the bet on OpenAI, it was a not,

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you know, it was a

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a research lab, a nonprofit entity that

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had created a for-profit

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uh unit and said, "Hey, they went and

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shopped around and said, who can back
our crazy idea that intelligence is log

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of compute?" Uh and quite
frankly, there were lots of

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people that uh or at Microsoft at that

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time who thought this is nuts.

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Um but, you know, we said, "I think
this is a worthwhile thing to back." And

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quite frankly, we changed uh I think and
they changed through their work and the

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OpenAI through their work, the world
and here we are in 2026 and we're thrilled

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about it. >> You guys
recently renegotiated your deal

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um between OpenAI and Microsoft. And uh
I understand what OpenAI got out of that

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deal, they got the ability to work with
multiple cloud providers, to be a little

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bit more open about how they
commercialize their technology. What did

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Microsoft get out
of the revision of that deal?

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>> I mean, we have a lot of, you know,

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interests in OpenAI. We're obviously on

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their cap table and uh we're a They're a

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customer of ours, a large one. We are uh

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They're a source of IP for us uh all the

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way to 32 and uh and so all
of the things and and and at

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the same time we have the ability
and the flexibility to reuse the IP, build

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our own IP. We just last week launched
MAI models, uh which have hill-climbed

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from the ground up. We published,
in fact, the paper, which I think should

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help people even get the capability we
have, especially if you take those two

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thoughts, right, which is uh here is,

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you know, intelligence is log of compute

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and here is a pure lineage model from

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Microsoft that climbed all the way,

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means that we now have the ability to

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keep going and to us and we would
and and our infrastructure. I must mention

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that that we wouldn't have been
where we are with even Azure

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but for that close partnership with
OpenAI. So, we have the compute, we have

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now the model and we have
still the partnership.

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>> Let's talk about those models. Is your

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goal to make a frontier best model
in the world? And if so, what's the

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strategy for overtaking
a ChatGPT, a Gemini, a Claude?

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>> Yeah, so I think the way I would say is

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our real goal is to get
everyone across the

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ecosystem to the frontier. So, we are
going to take a slightly different take

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in saying for example,
if you think about what's

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how does one build a frontier model? Um

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you hill climb, URL

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um and then you need data, right? So,
at this point we have saturated the data

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and so that means you're basically
hovering the data from every place,

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right? So, the question is what if you
turn that around and said, "No, there's

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a base model that has reasoning, that

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has the agent loop, but you can bring it

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into your R&D." Every company, right? If

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you if the if the comp- the future of

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the firm is human capital and token

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capital. I want every balance sheet,

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every income statement in every company

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to have both. And that's our goal with

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our frontier model. Our model should be

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the best model that they can use as a

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base and keep even the weights,
uh definitely the harness and the

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context which is theirs and they can
replace our model with anything else.

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So, that to me is more of a vision that I
think is what Micro- I always ask the

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question, why does Microsoft

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uh or why does the world need Microsoft?

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And if we are successful, can the world
around us be successful? This I believe

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is a more sustainable way to go at it.

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>> We have to ask a question about the AI
backlash that we're seeing around the

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country. Graduation speakers are getting

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booted. AI is polling terribly. Uh lots

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of people upset about data centers. What
role does Microsoft have in that image

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or helping to solve that?
And how do you think the industry can

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find a path forward that involves,
I don't know, being a little more popular?

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>> [laughter] >> I think we
can start, but frankly, by

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painting a picture

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and delivering the results on why

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there are more than, you know, everyone
is a stakeholder, right? You can't go

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out there and say, "I have this

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unbelievable technology. Uh except

00:14:06.440 --> 00:14:10.597
you're not going to have a job and um in
fact, we're going to take all your water

00:14:10.680 --> 00:14:12.917
and all your energy and, you know, uh

00:14:13.000 --> 00:14:16.437
good luck." I mean, that cannot be uh an

00:14:16.520 --> 00:14:20.757
an And then the no wonder there's so
much anxiety, right? You talked about

00:14:20.840 --> 00:14:24.317
the students or you can talk about
a community. And so therefore, you got to

00:14:24.400 --> 00:14:26.037
do the hard work at this point. It is

00:14:26.120 --> 00:14:28.117
what it is, right? So, you can't deny

00:14:28.200 --> 00:14:31.397
that the perception is terrible. And so,

00:14:31.480 --> 00:14:36.117
I feel at Microsoft, we want to whether
it's like take the the data centers. Uh

00:14:36.200 --> 00:14:37.957
it's fascinating. We've been operating

00:14:38.040 --> 00:14:41.397
in Quincy, Washington for 20 plus years.

00:14:41.480 --> 00:14:45.517
And I just, you know,
uh we celebrated our 20th year.

00:14:45.600 --> 00:14:49.917
You know, if I look at what all has
happened in Quincy in the 20 years,

00:14:50.000 --> 00:14:52.477
their tax base has gone up.

00:14:52.560 --> 00:14:55.557
Their taxes locally have gone down. Uh

00:14:55.640 --> 00:14:58.397
they have more employment locally.

00:14:58.480 --> 00:14:59.517
>> Because of the data center.

00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:02.877
>> Because of the data center. In fact,
the data center is it's kind of like

00:15:02.960 --> 00:15:07.717
basically it's become a data center town.
Uh and we when we we we did this,

00:15:07.800 --> 00:15:11.917
you know, cookout and people came
and they said they celebrate the

00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.717
rejuvenation of Quincy, Washington

00:15:14.800 --> 00:15:19.117
because of our presence for the last
20 years. That long That's the first

00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:23.397
longitudinal thing of 20 years that I've
seen. And that's what the communities

00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:26.597
where data centers are. They They
definitely can't increase price on

00:15:26.680 --> 00:15:30.677
energy. They have to be, you know,
very, you know, in fact, they they should

00:15:30.760 --> 00:15:35.597
replenish all the water they use uh
and create economic opportunity. So,

00:15:35.680 --> 00:15:40.557
that's on the data center side. But,
across the economy, if there are small

00:15:40.640 --> 00:15:44.357
businesses feeling like, "Wow,
AI is making me more productive." If every

00:15:44.440 --> 00:15:49.197
large multinational is able to say, "Oh,
I'm building that token capital and the

00:15:49.280 --> 00:15:53.877
human capital." Right? Because
the the the big question is employment.

00:15:53.960 --> 00:15:58.437
Everybody thinks that all jobs are going
away. But, if you sort of And I'm not

00:15:58.520 --> 00:16:01.837
saying there won't be real displacement,
the workflow doesn't change. But, take

00:16:01.920 --> 00:16:07.117
software development. Of course,
you know, software development is now

00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:10.277
all agentic. Except,
if you think about even the

00:16:10.360 --> 00:16:14.077
evolution of the GitHub app, right?
You know, when I had a hundred CLIs, what

00:16:14.160 --> 00:16:18.757
did I need? I need a new IDE. It's
called an ADE, right? I'm back at again,

00:16:18.840 --> 00:16:20.437
some piece of software that helps me

00:16:20.520 --> 00:16:23.197
manage all of this complexity. So, I

00:16:23.280 --> 00:16:25.837
think we have to think about new work

00:16:25.920 --> 00:16:30.837
that gets done, which will
be meta-cognition, meta-work,

00:16:30.920 --> 00:16:33.997
that is going to have wages.
And we have to be concrete about that.

00:16:34.080 --> 00:16:38.397
>> But, but help us understand like
what your own view is of the potential

00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:41.477
disruption, right? Like there because
I've I've been talking to so many

00:16:41.560 --> 00:16:44.157
economists, like tech leaders like
yourself about this over the past couple

00:16:44.240 --> 00:16:47.357
of months, and truly opinion is all over
the place. And I talked to some folks

00:16:47.440 --> 00:16:50.717
who say, "Yes, you better believe I'm
hiring fewer people next year because of

00:16:50.800 --> 00:16:54.317
AI." And then I talked to other
people that say, "I I can't get enough

00:16:54.400 --> 00:16:57.917
engineers. I want more than I have."
So, where are you on that? In two years

00:16:58.000 --> 00:16:59.437
you're going to have
more engineers or fewer?

00:16:59.520 --> 00:17:01.917
>> Yeah, so I think the

00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:06.837
if in the early '80s, if someone had
come to us and said, "Hey, we're going

00:17:06.920 --> 00:17:09.637
to have three and a half billion people
in the world who are all going to be

00:17:09.720 --> 00:17:12.557
typists." We would have
said, "Why does the world

00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:14.957
need three and a half billion typists?"

00:17:15.040 --> 00:17:18.597
Except, we do. We all get up in the
morning and type, but we're doing {quote

00:17:18.680 --> 00:17:20.877
unquote} information work, knowledge

00:17:20.960 --> 00:17:25.237
work, and so on. So, that type of change

00:17:25.320 --> 00:17:28.877
is going to have to happen, and that and

00:17:28.960 --> 00:17:33.397
each of them will have a name that
and it'll have a wage support. That

00:17:33.480 --> 00:17:35.877
reinvention, right? So, the software

00:17:35.960 --> 00:17:38.437
developer of the past to the software

00:17:38.520 --> 00:17:40.717
developer of the future may have the

00:17:40.800 --> 00:17:44.157
similar sort of skills, but the work

00:17:44.240 --> 00:17:48.797
they do is different. Because they're
managing a group of 100 agents, 1,000

00:17:48.880 --> 00:17:52.477
agents. In fact, there's a beautiful
term one of my colleagues has, which is

00:17:52.560 --> 00:17:55.997
just like in software development
we already had this concept of test

00:17:56.080 --> 00:18:00.797
coverage. One of the new things that we
are learning is what I'll call cognitive

00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:03.957
coverage, right? So, what does
a software developer do? I might have I

00:18:04.040 --> 00:18:05.877
have a repo full of code that was

00:18:05.960 --> 00:18:08.917
written by agents. I am

00:18:09.000 --> 00:18:13.517
cognitively understanding what happened,
and I now need tools for cognitive

00:18:13.600 --> 00:18:17.077
coverage on what there has been. That's
a job, I think, of a software developer.

00:18:17.160 --> 00:18:19.277
And in order to do that, you got to go
to school, you got to learn computer

00:18:19.360 --> 00:18:20.997
science, and have cognitive coverage.

00:18:21.080 --> 00:18:24.157
And so, this reinvention of work, the

00:18:24.240 --> 00:18:27.157
work artifact, the workflow, right?

00:18:27.240 --> 00:18:31.237
Because software went from input
to output. That's a format change, an

00:18:31.320 --> 00:18:35.557
artifact change, the workflow has
changed, and the work changes with it.

00:18:35.640 --> 00:18:38.797
>> I feel like what people really want
to hear is some combination of like, your

00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:42.077
job isn't going to change that much,
or if it does change, you're going to get

00:18:42.160 --> 00:18:44.917
paid more. Do you think that either of
those things will be true for most people?

00:18:45.000 --> 00:18:47.037
>> That's the thing. The wages, you know,

00:18:47.120 --> 00:18:49.877
have always been about what is it that

00:18:49.960 --> 00:18:53.237
we as a society value, right? Um I mean,

00:18:53.320 --> 00:18:56.317
we have grown in the last 200 years, 250

00:18:56.400 --> 00:18:58.677
years, was about a particular form of

00:18:58.760 --> 00:19:01.797
expertise and accrual of knowledge. So,

00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:03.957
when you have abundance of some form of

00:19:04.040 --> 00:19:07.397
expertise, what is that human ability to

00:19:07.480 --> 00:19:10.877
now build a new expertise that is not

00:19:10.960 --> 00:19:15.837
trainable? Right? In fact, there was a
nice blog I read this morning from Sarah

00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:18.077
Go, which was I thought was an
interesting one where she sort of

00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:22.437
mentions, "Hey, what is the untrainable
part?" And that applies to organizations

00:19:22.520 --> 00:19:24.637
and I think us as well. And it's

00:19:24.720 --> 00:19:27.957
We as humans have agency, ambition,

00:19:28.040 --> 00:19:30.837
that should not be counted out. And if

00:19:30.920 --> 00:19:35.157
you look at even what is human capital
today, the human cap in spite of all the

00:19:35.240 --> 00:19:37.557
digital systems we have in in at our

00:19:37.640 --> 00:19:41.157
disposal, we do the glue work. We will

00:19:41.240 --> 00:19:44.237
discover the new glue work that happens

00:19:44.320 --> 00:19:48.397
in with all this automation. And that I
think is the process of change. One idea

00:19:48.480 --> 00:19:52.917
that's been floated recently,
including by reportedly Sam Altman and and

00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:56.517
President Trump has also weighed
in on it, is the idea of having the US

00:19:56.600 --> 00:20:02.117
government take direct investment
stakes in frontier AI companies.

00:20:02.200 --> 00:20:05.517
Do you think that's a good idea? What
percent of Microsoft would you like the

00:20:05.600 --> 00:20:11.027
US government to own? MSFT, you can trade.

00:20:11.110 --> 00:20:13.757
>> [laughter] >> Do you think
that is a way for the the

00:20:13.840 --> 00:20:16.317
gains of AI to be more broadly felt? You

00:20:16.400 --> 00:20:18.517
know, look, this is all very new, right?

00:20:18.600 --> 00:20:21.757
I mean, the idea that there may be

00:20:21.840 --> 00:20:23.637
the United States, whether it has a

00:20:23.720 --> 00:20:25.877
sovereign fund and the sovereign fund

00:20:25.960 --> 00:20:29.357
has equity stakes and that somehow

00:20:29.440 --> 00:20:33.397
is part of what is considered
this the wealth of

00:20:33.480 --> 00:20:37.237
the citizens of this country, I think
it's a novel idea. Other countries have

00:20:37.320 --> 00:20:40.637
done it. I think Alaska
has some form of it

00:20:40.720 --> 00:20:43.437
in the state because of the oil wealth.

00:20:43.520 --> 00:20:47.717
So, I'm not sort of opposed
to innovative ideas like this, but at the

00:20:47.800 --> 00:20:51.197
end of the day, I mean, there's
this entire movement of if only we had

00:20:51.280 --> 00:20:56.557
invested some portion of our social
security in S&P 500, we would have a

00:20:56.640 --> 00:20:59.837
surplus or what have you. And so, to the
degree to which some of these ideas can

00:20:59.920 --> 00:21:02.597
be played out and and they succeed, I

00:21:02.680 --> 00:21:04.797
think we'll all benefit from it.

00:21:04.880 --> 00:21:07.957
>> You um Dwarkesh Patel in February 2025

00:21:08.040 --> 00:21:10.277
that your benchmark for achieving AGI

00:21:10.360 --> 00:21:14.037
was 10% GDP growth. Seems like we're not

00:21:14.120 --> 00:21:17.637
super close to hitting 10% yet. Um I'm

00:21:17.720 --> 00:21:22.997
curious like how how you view that kind
of statement you made a year ago now and

00:21:23.080 --> 00:21:26.957
do you see any sort of recent acceleration
that makes you think it's more possible?

00:21:27.040 --> 00:21:29.597
>> In fact, it's one of the

00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:32.477
things that I think a lot about is the

00:21:32.560 --> 00:21:35.317
difficulty of even a very powerful

00:21:35.400 --> 00:21:40.077
general purpose technology and its
diffusion and the amount of change

00:21:40.160 --> 00:21:43.877
management that is required, right?
I mean, the systems, right? For example,

00:21:43.960 --> 00:21:47.477
one of the challenges right now that
we're going to face in the next year, 2

00:21:47.560 --> 00:21:50.477
years is this, you know, the economics

00:21:50.560 --> 00:21:55.037
of tokens. Uh for example,
the hard truth is that the

00:21:55.120 --> 00:21:57.277
marginal cost of productivity

00:21:57.360 --> 00:22:00.117
improvement has to match the marginal

00:22:00.200 --> 00:22:02.957
cost of the token. That's a management

00:22:03.040 --> 00:22:07.157
discipline, right? So, you can't just
say, "Hey, I love token maxing because

00:22:07.240 --> 00:22:11.357
it's sort of money in my bank."
That business has to

00:22:11.440 --> 00:22:15.397
benefit from it. And that is what
is going to really drive it. So, in fact,

00:22:15.480 --> 00:22:17.317
it's fascinating. The equation for the

00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:19.397
10% growth would be when you have a

00:22:19.480 --> 00:22:23.397
perfect match between the marginal cost

00:22:23.480 --> 00:22:27.197
of the token to the marginal
value and it's priced,

00:22:27.280 --> 00:22:32.157
right? So, that means it's the best way
to get at it. If that happens, 10% is

00:22:32.240 --> 00:22:35.757
definitely going to happen. But not
definitely what's happening right now

00:22:35.840 --> 00:22:39.117
where everybody goes and white codes and
token maxes, that's not a way to achieve

00:22:39.200 --> 00:22:42.437
10% growth. >> How much
sort of token maxing has been

00:22:42.520 --> 00:22:44.957
going on at Microsoft? And then you Yeah.

00:22:45.040 --> 00:22:48.637
>> [laughter] >> And I'm
out of it. Like get me

00:22:48.720 --> 00:22:52.717
And what I mean by that is um
you know, look, I want people to

00:22:52.800 --> 00:22:56.397
obviously and myself,
I'm like a token maxer, too. So,

00:22:56.480 --> 00:23:00.397
it's addictive. It's kind of like, "Hey,
I love this thing." So, So you have to

00:23:00.480 --> 00:23:03.317
step back when the novelty wears off to

00:23:03.400 --> 00:23:05.237
say what is it that I'm trying to

00:23:05.320 --> 00:23:07.677
create? Uh in fact the thing that I love

00:23:07.760 --> 00:23:11.157
now in in Copilot now is our auto mode.

00:23:11.240 --> 00:23:15.157
And so we now have a very good we have
an economic model that's feeding it as

00:23:15.240 --> 00:23:18.117
well. Basically I say don't use frontier

00:23:18.200 --> 00:23:20.557
models for non-frontier problems, right?

00:23:20.640 --> 00:23:25.197
Please let's kind of match these things
such that you get the outputs, you get

00:23:25.280 --> 00:23:29.317
the economics, uh and it's
not it can't be a race to

00:23:29.400 --> 00:23:32.317
just doing things
that just don't add value.

00:23:32.400 --> 00:23:35.797
>> Give us a flavor of like Satya's token
maxing. Like what are some of your your

00:23:35.880 --> 00:23:39.117
big token projects lately? >> Yeah,
I mean like the one thing that I

00:23:39.200 --> 00:23:44.517
recently um built was you know

00:23:44.600 --> 00:23:49.197
I always sort of felt that

00:23:49.280 --> 00:23:51.357
I want a repo

00:23:51.440 --> 00:23:54.877
that is in sync all the time

00:23:54.960 --> 00:23:58.557
with discussions that are
happening out of band

00:23:58.640 --> 00:24:02.517
uh that I'm not in. Right?
Think about even that concept.

00:24:02.600 --> 00:24:06.277
See I like that thing because it sort of
is sort of not possible today, right? So

00:24:06.360 --> 00:24:09.397
you'll have essentially the ability now

00:24:09.480 --> 00:24:11.477
to have an agent that literally is

00:24:11.560 --> 00:24:13.997
looking at all the work discussions that

00:24:14.080 --> 00:24:17.397
may be related to your repo and creating

00:24:17.480 --> 00:24:21.437
the plan and executing the plan.
And it's just in fact all I did was I put

00:24:21.520 --> 00:24:24.077
work IQ which is the database underneath

00:24:24.160 --> 00:24:28.837
uh all of Microsoft 365
and as an MCP server and to my

00:24:28.920 --> 00:24:32.837
coding agent and I said keep watching
that and every time people discuss this

00:24:32.920 --> 00:24:36.677
repo, please change my repo. And it
keeps working. And so this is like the

00:24:36.760 --> 00:24:39.437
best way to keep your come basically a

00:24:39.520 --> 00:24:44.037
model you know in sync with all
requirements that ever come up.

00:24:44.120 --> 00:24:47.877
>> You've been thinking a lot about the
political economy of AI. Obviously, you

00:24:47.960 --> 00:24:50.957
know, the things you're talking about
about diffusion and adoption and GDP

00:24:51.040 --> 00:24:54.237
growth are all part of that. What do
you think the people in San Francisco

00:24:54.320 --> 00:24:58.637
leading the AI companies here get
wrong about the political economy of AI?

00:24:58.720 --> 00:25:01.837
>> I I mean I wouldn't say they're wrong
about the political economy of AI, but I

00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:05.717
do think when I look back
at the you know there's

00:25:05.800 --> 00:25:09.677
a very cool book I read I
think in December. It's I

00:25:09.760 --> 00:25:13.077
I may have the name wrong, but it's
written by Joel Mokyr and a couple of a

00:25:13.160 --> 00:25:16.797
co-authors on it's I think it's called
Parallel Paths to Prosperity. They

00:25:16.880 --> 00:25:21.597
describe a little bit of how the last
thousand years in the you know the West

00:25:21.680 --> 00:25:23.397
grew and what was what was happening in

00:25:23.480 --> 00:25:25.957
China. So it is a thousand year history.

00:25:26.040 --> 00:25:29.117
Um but the fundamental thing when I take

00:25:29.200 --> 00:25:31.677
from that book and and in general when I

00:25:31.760 --> 00:25:33.317
read history is

00:25:33.400 --> 00:25:36.757
the West in particular got three things

00:25:36.840 --> 00:25:40.157
into a virtual cycle, right? They got uh

00:25:40.240 --> 00:25:42.637
technological revolutions

00:25:42.720 --> 00:25:45.077
mark and markets

00:25:45.160 --> 00:25:48.677
and democracy. All both acting as a

00:25:48.760 --> 00:25:52.477
check on the other. Uh that's
why there is no such thing as

00:25:52.560 --> 00:25:56.237
an economy. It's a political economy.
A democracy controls ultimately what

00:25:56.320 --> 00:26:00.597
happens in a market and then technology
sort of tries to disrupt the two and

00:26:00.680 --> 00:26:02.597
then you keep sort of the checks and

00:26:02.680 --> 00:26:04.557
balances. That's magical. It's one of

00:26:04.640 --> 00:26:07.757
the most unbelievable social constructs

00:26:07.840 --> 00:26:10.997
ever to emerge in the world, right?

00:26:11.080 --> 00:26:13.037
Think about sort of you know that it

00:26:13.120 --> 00:26:14.837
became the model.

00:26:14.920 --> 00:26:18.637
And we now need that same model

00:26:18.720 --> 00:26:23.997
to be redefined for this age, but it
will work because it worked the last

00:26:24.080 --> 00:26:28.117
time. And so therefore I think us
reminding ourselves that the balance the

00:26:28.200 --> 00:26:31.557
checks and uh that each
one has on the other is

00:26:31.640 --> 00:26:35.317
what I think we have a we have to aspire
for whether it's in San Francisco,

00:26:35.400 --> 00:26:38.397
whether it's in Washington D.C.
or quite frankly anywhere else.

00:26:38.480 --> 00:26:41.757
>> Mhm. Maybe just as a
last question, I'm still

00:26:41.840 --> 00:26:43.757
trying to like hone in on what I think

00:26:43.840 --> 00:26:46.197
Kevin might call how AGI pilled you are.

00:26:46.280 --> 00:26:50.877
Like there's a sense in the in Silicon
Valley that that it really is different

00:26:50.960 --> 00:26:54.157
this time and that the jagged frontier
is going to keep advancing forever, and

00:26:54.240 --> 00:26:57.077
all of a sudden the little tasks that
AI can automate today it are going to

00:26:57.160 --> 00:27:00.317
convert into full jobs.
How much do you buy that story?

00:27:00.400 --> 00:27:04.037
>> Look, I I buy that anything

00:27:04.120 --> 00:27:06.917
where the loops can be closed.

00:27:07.000 --> 00:27:08.917
Right? Like coding.

00:27:09.000 --> 00:27:11.917
In fact, AI research

00:27:12.000 --> 00:27:15.117
is sort of possible to close. I think we

00:27:15.200 --> 00:27:17.877
have now got sufficient um I'd say

00:27:17.960 --> 00:27:21.117
evidence uh of that.

00:27:21.200 --> 00:27:25.197
But is that enough? I don't think so.

00:27:25.280 --> 00:27:28.237
Um in in and when I think about

00:27:28.320 --> 00:27:29.837
you know, people talk about how

00:27:29.920 --> 00:27:32.837
verifiable is this task. And in the

00:27:32.920 --> 00:27:36.917
messy real world of even knowledge work,

00:27:37.000 --> 00:27:40.077
uh just say I'm going to look at the

00:27:40.160 --> 00:27:43.597
traces of human activity

00:27:43.680 --> 00:27:47.357
uh is enough to close the loop.
I don't think so. That I think is the the

00:27:47.440 --> 00:27:49.957
challenge, which is when I am in a

00:27:50.040 --> 00:27:51.437
meeting,

00:27:51.520 --> 00:27:56.237
I say things, I note things, um I may

00:27:56.320 --> 00:28:00.117
observe things, but what I do with it is

00:28:00.200 --> 00:28:03.077
not a trace today that I can orally my

00:28:03.160 --> 00:28:06.597
way in, right? And that to me is where

00:28:06.680 --> 00:28:10.237
we're selling short what is um I would

00:28:10.320 --> 00:28:13.157
say unverifiable part of the human

00:28:13.240 --> 00:28:16.357
capital. And so to me, that's where So,

00:28:16.440 --> 00:28:18.877
I believe the advances keep happening.

00:28:18.960 --> 00:28:21.597
I still am in the more in the world of

00:28:21.680 --> 00:28:24.237
hey, this is platforms tools. Very

00:28:24.320 --> 00:28:27.397
powerful, very disruptive. I have a lot

00:28:27.480 --> 00:28:29.757
of sort of I'd say, you know, uh

00:28:29.840 --> 00:28:31.797
humility to say a lot of things will

00:28:31.880 --> 00:28:34.477
change, but at the end of the day, so

00:28:34.560 --> 00:28:38.957
was electricity, so were a lot of other,
you know, steam when it first came out

00:28:39.040 --> 00:28:41.917
and what have you. And so I'm not sort
of sitting there and thinking this is

00:28:42.000 --> 00:28:44.797
the last technology we ever will invent.

00:28:44.880 --> 00:28:46.917
I I buy that. I I I kind of feel like

00:28:47.000 --> 00:28:48.997
yeah, this is in the pantheon of all

00:28:49.080 --> 00:28:54.077
technologies a big step up. Uh but I
do think that it you know, there will be

00:28:54.160 --> 00:28:57.317
more to come. >> Very good. >> Well,
Satya Nadella, thanks so much for

00:28:57.400 --> 00:29:00.357
joining us. Please give
Satya Nadella a hand.

00:29:00.440 --> 00:29:01.477
>> Thank you. >> Thank you so much.

00:29:01.560 --> 00:29:04.240
>> Thank you so much. Thank you.

00:29:06.250 --> 00:29:08.270
>> [music]

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[music]