WEBVTT 00:00:01.640 --> 00:00:06.467 That was not a That was not a large applause. Start again. 00:00:06.550 --> 00:00:08.570 >> [applause and cheering] 00:00:12.680 --> 00:00:17.597 >> That's better. Thank you. >> Yeah, we're going to make this interesting. 00:00:17.680 --> 00:00:19.997 >> [laughter] >> How many How many quotes are you going 00:00:20.080 --> 00:00:24.807 to want that are going to be after this session? 00:00:24.890 --> 00:00:27.957 >> [snorts] >> Uh I don't know. I mean five. 00:00:28.040 --> 00:00:31.477 >> Okay. >> [laughter] >> So, uh good afternoon everyone. It's 00:00:31.560 --> 00:00:33.357 great to see everybody here. Uh it's 00:00:33.440 --> 00:00:36.077 been an amazing week here in Davos. 00:00:36.160 --> 00:00:40.317 Um hopefully everybody saw 00:00:40.400 --> 00:00:42.477 that we are having conversations here. 00:00:42.560 --> 00:00:45.997 Hopefully everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may 00:00:46.080 --> 00:00:50.277 disagree. There's many conversations we may have agreed. But through those 00:00:50.360 --> 00:00:53.677 conversations and I think today's result with a peace 00:00:53.760 --> 00:00:58.437 agreement earlier today, um the World Economic Forum is here to 00:00:58.520 --> 00:01:01.357 have those conversations, to have understandings, 00:01:01.440 --> 00:01:05.477 and also resolution. So, um 00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:08.277 uh it's an important component of who we 00:01:08.360 --> 00:01:10.997 and what we are and I'm thrilled 00:01:11.080 --> 00:01:14.557 uh to have Elon Musk here. Um 00:01:14.640 --> 00:01:18.797 He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So, uh thank 00:01:18.880 --> 00:01:22.520 you Elon. >> Uh you're most welcome. 00:01:23.520 --> 00:01:27.597 Um I mean I heard I heard about I heard about the formation of the 00:01:27.680 --> 00:01:30.717 the peace summit and I was like is that uh 00:01:30.800 --> 00:01:34.897 is that p i e c? Uh 00:01:34.980 --> 00:01:38.477 >> [laughter] >> You know, a little piece of 00:01:38.560 --> 00:01:40.137 Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. 00:01:40.220 --> 00:01:45.077 [laughter] >> We got one. >> All we want is peace. 00:01:45.160 --> 00:01:49.637 >> Okay, I would have As I said, I'm a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock since we 00:01:49.720 --> 00:01:53.877 went public. Um um the compounding return of BlackRock to 00:01:53.960 --> 00:01:56.397 our shareholders was 21%. 00:01:56.480 --> 00:01:59.237 Uh since Elon took Tesla 00:01:59.320 --> 00:02:03.117 uh public, his compounded return 00:02:03.200 --> 00:02:06.480 is 43%. 00:02:07.480 --> 00:02:11.517 This is I just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. 00:02:11.600 --> 00:02:13.317 This is why 00:02:13.400 --> 00:02:16.157 more citizens should be investing with 00:02:16.240 --> 00:02:18.997 growth, investing with your countries. 00:02:19.080 --> 00:02:21.317 Imagine if a lot of pension funds 00:02:21.400 --> 00:02:24.237 invested with Elon at when Tesla went 00:02:24.320 --> 00:02:27.597 public and how much 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:29.517 return would be 00:02:29.600 --> 00:02:32.197 all the pension funds that invested side 00:02:32.280 --> 00:02:35.197 by side with Elon and the growth. So, um 00:02:35.280 --> 00:02:39.397 a spectacular return. There's very few companies 00:02:39.480 --> 00:02:42.797 Well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has 00:02:42.880 --> 00:02:45.397 that compounded return. So, congratulations. 00:02:45.480 --> 00:02:46.957 >> Oh, thank you. >> good measurement. 00:02:47.040 --> 00:02:50.077 >> Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla, and that's the reason. 00:02:50.160 --> 00:02:53.557 >> So, I want to get into uh the dirt, the 00:02:53.640 --> 00:02:55.317 the meaningful component about 00:02:55.400 --> 00:02:58.357 technology, the possibilities. 00:02:58.440 --> 00:03:01.157 Um I want to talk about AI and robotics, 00:03:01.240 --> 00:03:05.597 energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, 00:03:05.680 --> 00:03:09.277 engineering discipline, scale, execution. 00:03:09.360 --> 00:03:10.877 Um and few 00:03:10.960 --> 00:03:13.317 few people, if not anyone, has the 00:03:13.400 --> 00:03:16.797 experience and the fortitude to confront 00:03:16.880 --> 00:03:21.637 these issues head-on. Not just the ideas, but the execution 00:03:21.720 --> 00:03:24.797 across so many different technologies, Elon. And that's why I thought I thought 00:03:24.880 --> 00:03:30.177 it's important for us to have this dialogue here uh in Davos. So, 00:03:30.260 --> 00:03:33.157 >> [clears throat] >> you're presently building on AI, on 00:03:33.240 --> 00:03:36.077 robotics, on space, on energy all at the 00:03:36.160 --> 00:03:41.277 same time. When you look across those efforts, 00:03:41.360 --> 00:03:45.157 what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint? 00:03:45.240 --> 00:03:50.237 >> Uh well, they're all very difficult technology challenges, um but the 00:03:50.320 --> 00:03:50.877 uh 00:03:50.960 --> 00:03:54.557 the overall goal of my companies is to 00:03:54.640 --> 00:03:57.277 maximize the future of civilization. 00:03:57.360 --> 00:04:02.077 Like, basically, maximize the probability that civilization has great future. 00:04:02.160 --> 00:04:04.357 Um, and, uh, 00:04:04.440 --> 00:04:06.917 to expand consciousness beyond Earth. 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:09.277 So, if you take SpaceX, for example, 00:04:09.360 --> 00:04:11.797 that SpaceX is about both advancing 00:04:11.880 --> 00:04:16.477 rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond 00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:20.237 Earth, uh, to the moon, to Mars, uh, eventually 00:04:20.320 --> 00:04:23.957 to other star systems. And, uh, 00:04:24.040 --> 00:04:27.277 I know I think we should always view consciousness, uh, 00:04:27.360 --> 00:04:31.357 life as we know it as as precarious and delicate, 00:04:31.440 --> 00:04:35.237 um, because to the best of our knowledge, we we we 00:04:35.320 --> 00:04:37.357 don't know of life anywhere else. You 00:04:37.440 --> 00:04:40.037 know, I'm often asked, um, 00:04:40.120 --> 00:04:45.437 "Are there aliens among us?" And I'll say that I am one, but 00:04:45.520 --> 00:04:47.637 >> Or you're from the future. >> They don't believe me. 00:04:47.720 --> 00:04:52.557 >> Okay. >> Um, so, uh, but I I would I >> [clears throat] 00:04:52.640 --> 00:04:55.677 >> I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. 00:04:55.760 --> 00:04:58.557 Um, and, uh, 00:04:58.640 --> 00:05:01.437 we we have 9,000 satellites up there, 00:05:01.520 --> 00:05:05.877 and not once have we had to maneuver around an an alien spaceship. 00:05:05.960 --> 00:05:08.397 So, I'm like, I don't know. It's 00:05:08.480 --> 00:05:10.877 Bottom line is I think we need to assume 00:05:10.960 --> 00:05:13.717 that life and consciousness is extremely 00:05:13.800 --> 00:05:16.277 rare, and it might only be us. 00:05:16.360 --> 00:05:21.437 And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to to 00:05:21.520 --> 00:05:24.957 ensure that the the light of can the light the light of 00:05:25.040 --> 00:05:28.517 consciousness is not extinguished, because we're 00:05:28.600 --> 00:05:31.637 effectively we're we're we're The way I view it is 00:05:31.720 --> 00:05:35.437 the image in my mind is of a a tiny candle 00:05:35.520 --> 00:05:39.557 in a vast darkness, a tiny candle of consciousness 00:05:39.640 --> 00:05:43.037 that could easily go out. Um, and that's why it's important to 00:05:43.120 --> 00:05:46.637 make life multi-planetary, uh, such that if there is a natural 00:05:46.720 --> 00:05:51.437 disaster or a man-made disaster on Earth that consciousness continues. That's the 00:05:51.520 --> 00:05:54.477 purpose of SpaceX. Um 00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:59.517 Uh Te- Tesla is obviously about uh sustainable technology and 00:05:59.600 --> 00:06:02.517 uh and and also at this moment we've we've 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:05.397 sort of added to our mission sustainable 00:06:05.480 --> 00:06:10.717 abundance. So, with uh robotics and AI 00:06:10.800 --> 00:06:14.597 um th- this this is really the path to 00:06:14.680 --> 00:06:17.077 abundance for all. If you say you know 00:06:17.160 --> 00:06:18.957 people often talk about 00:06:19.040 --> 00:06:23.117 uh solving global poverty or essentially 00:06:23.200 --> 00:06:26.117 how how do we make give everyone 00:06:26.200 --> 00:06:31.157 a very high standard of living. I I think the only way to do this is AI and 00:06:31.240 --> 00:06:35.117 and robotics. Um which which doesn't mean that it is 00:06:35.200 --> 00:06:38.517 uh wi- without its issues. I mean this we 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:43.277 need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. 00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:47.277 We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. 00:06:47.360 --> 00:06:51.117 Uh you know, Terminator. 00:06:51.200 --> 00:06:54.317 Is is a great He's great great movies. I love his movies. But but we don't want 00:06:54.400 --> 00:06:58.677 to be in Terminator, obviously. Um but but we if you have 00:06:58.760 --> 00:06:59.477 um 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:02.717 ubiquitous AI that is essentially free 00:07:02.800 --> 00:07:06.077 or close to it and ubiquitous robotics 00:07:06.160 --> 00:07:11.757 uh then uh you will have an an ex- an explosion in the in the global 00:07:11.840 --> 00:07:15.317 economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly uh 00:07:15.400 --> 00:07:17.477 beyond all precedent. 00:07:17.560 --> 00:07:21.157 >> Elon, can that expansion be broad or is 00:07:21.240 --> 00:07:24.477 it narrow? And how can that be created? 00:07:24.560 --> 00:07:27.877 How can it broaden the global economy? 00:07:27.960 --> 00:07:32.077 >> Yeah, it's I mean what 00:07:32.160 --> 00:07:33.557 I mean a way to think of it is that if 00:07:33.640 --> 00:07:35.117 you have a large number of humanoid 00:07:35.200 --> 00:07:39.837 robots um the economic output is 00:07:39.920 --> 00:07:44.557 the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. 00:07:44.640 --> 00:07:46.597 >> Right. >> Um 00:07:46.680 --> 00:07:52.277 and and actually my prediction is in the in the benign scenario of the future 00:07:52.360 --> 00:07:55.157 that we will the robots will actually make so many 00:07:55.240 --> 00:07:59.477 robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. 00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:03.357 >> Meaning you won't be able to even think of something 00:08:03.440 --> 00:08:06.117 >> to ask the robot for at a certain point. 00:08:06.200 --> 00:08:11.157 Like like the there will be such an abundance of goods and services 00:08:11.240 --> 00:08:14.717 because the [clears throat] my prediction is that they'll be they'll 00:08:14.800 --> 00:08:19.757 be more robots than people. So >> But how do you then have human purpose 00:08:19.840 --> 00:08:24.437 in that scenario? >> Yeah, I mean you know, there was nothing's perfect, 00:08:24.520 --> 00:08:27.557 you know, but >> [laughter] >> um 00:08:27.640 --> 00:08:30.717 but but it I mean I mean it is it is a a 00:08:30.800 --> 00:08:35.677 necessary um like you can't have both. You can't have 00:08:35.760 --> 00:08:39.517 work that has to be done uh um and 00:08:39.600 --> 00:08:44.357 uh amazing abundance for all. Um because if it's if it's work that has 00:08:44.440 --> 00:08:48.157 to be done that then then you and then only some people can do it then 00:08:48.240 --> 00:08:50.277 you then you you you can't have abundance for all. 00:08:50.360 --> 00:08:54.877 >> narrow. >> It's narrow, exactly. So um 00:08:54.960 --> 00:08:58.117 but if you if you have billions of humanoid robots and I think there will 00:08:58.200 --> 00:09:01.717 be um then I think I think everyone on Earth 00:09:01.800 --> 00:09:04.157 is going to have one and going to want one. 00:09:04.240 --> 00:09:07.717 Um because uh you would who wouldn't want a 00:09:07.800 --> 00:09:12.597 robot to you know um assuming it's very safe 00:09:12.680 --> 00:09:16.117 uh watch over your kids, take care of your pets uh 00:09:16.200 --> 00:09:19.837 if you have elderly parents uh a lot of friends of mine have said they 00:09:19.920 --> 00:09:23.837 have elderly parents and it's it's very difficult to take care of them. 00:09:23.920 --> 00:09:26.917 >> Yeah, it's expensive and it's it's expensive and there just aren't enough 00:09:27.000 --> 00:09:30.117 people to take care of the there aren't enough young people to take care of the 00:09:30.200 --> 00:09:31.477 old people. >> Right. 00:09:31.560 --> 00:09:33.837 >> Um so if you if they 00:09:33.920 --> 00:09:37.197 um if if you had a robot that could take 00:09:37.280 --> 00:09:41.477 care of an and protect an an elderly parent, I think that would be great. 00:09:41.560 --> 00:09:44.117 That would be an amazing thing to have. 00:09:44.200 --> 00:09:47.357 Um and and that I think we will have those things. 00:09:47.440 --> 00:09:50.997 So, I mean overall I'm I'm very optimistic about the future. I think 00:09:51.080 --> 00:09:56.877 we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, uh which is very cool. 00:09:56.960 --> 00:10:00.237 Um and uh and and definitely >> [clears throat] 00:10:00.320 --> 00:10:03.277 >> we are in the most interesting time in history. 00:10:03.360 --> 00:10:06.197 Um I think there's more more interesting 00:10:06.280 --> 00:10:08.437 time in history. So. 00:10:08.520 --> 00:10:11.237 >> Can we Can you and I reverse aging in 00:10:11.320 --> 00:10:16.520 this new history or or or are we going to see it? 00:10:16.640 --> 00:10:21.117 >> I you know, I haven't I haven't put much time into uh the aging stuff. 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:25.477 I I I do think it is a very solvable problem. Like like you can do 00:10:25.560 --> 00:10:30.237 Uh I think when when when when we find figure out what causes aging, >> Mhm. 00:10:30.320 --> 00:10:34.037 >> I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. No, it's not a subtle thing. 00:10:34.120 --> 00:10:36.157 Um The reason I say it's not a subtle thing 00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:40.117 is because all the cells in your body, you know, with some 00:10:40.200 --> 00:10:41.557 pretty much age at the same rate. 00:10:41.640 --> 00:10:45.397 >> Right. >> Uh you I've never seen someone with with an old 00:10:45.480 --> 00:10:49.277 left arm and a young right arm, ever in my life. 00:10:49.360 --> 00:10:52.837 Um so, why is that? It it it that that means that there must be a clock, a 00:10:52.920 --> 00:10:54.517 synchronizing clock. >> Right. 00:10:54.600 --> 00:10:59.117 >> That is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body. 00:10:59.200 --> 00:11:03.077 Um and uh Uh 00:11:03.160 --> 00:11:06.437 you know, the There is some 00:11:06.520 --> 00:11:09.437 benefit to death, by the way. 00:11:09.520 --> 00:11:13.677 There's There's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan, 00:11:13.760 --> 00:11:18.077 uh because if you if you have if people do live for a very very long time, I 00:11:18.160 --> 00:11:22.517 think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of of things 00:11:22.600 --> 00:11:26.317 just getting kind of locked in place. 00:11:26.400 --> 00:11:31.197 Um and uh Yeah, you know, it it it it it it just 00:11:31.280 --> 00:11:34.600 may become um 00:11:34.760 --> 00:11:37.397 stultifying, just not uh 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:40.277 lack lack vibrancy. Um but but that 00:11:40.360 --> 00:11:42.477 that's it. Do I think we'll 00:11:42.560 --> 00:11:47.437 figure out ways to extend life and um 00:11:47.520 --> 00:11:51.917 and maybe even reverse aging, I think that's highly likely. 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.357 >> I'm looking forward to that. 00:11:54.440 --> 00:11:57.477 >> Yeah. >> So, um in 00:11:57.560 --> 00:11:59.397 the future that you talk about, the AI 00:11:59.480 --> 00:12:02.357 models, autonomous machines, rockets, 00:12:02.440 --> 00:12:05.597 depends on massive increases of compute, 00:12:05.680 --> 00:12:08.237 massive increases in energy, 00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:12.837 expensive energy, manufacturing scale. 00:12:12.920 --> 00:12:14.837 What are the bottlenecks to to get 00:12:14.920 --> 00:12:17.037 there? And then once again, 00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:19.917 with all that expenditures, again, how 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:25.360 can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow? 00:12:26.560 --> 00:12:29.317 >> Um >> [clears throat and cough] 00:12:29.400 --> 00:12:34.437 >> I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because uh AI 00:12:34.520 --> 00:12:37.637 companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. 00:12:37.720 --> 00:12:42.037 And the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's is plummeting 00:12:42.120 --> 00:12:46.917 every year. I mean, you almost the cost of AI is almost 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:49.197 meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis. 00:12:49.280 --> 00:12:52.077 >> There's open There's open models now everywhere, yeah. 00:12:52.160 --> 00:12:55.237 >> Yes, very There's open models >> [clears throat] 00:12:55.320 --> 00:12:58.957 >> and the open models only lag They they may be a year behind >> Right. 00:12:59.040 --> 00:13:00.677 >> the the private the sort of closed 00:13:00.760 --> 00:13:05.197 models. Um so so I think 00:13:05.280 --> 00:13:10.397 the the AI companies will seek as as many customers as possible, which means 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:12.637 they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world. 00:13:12.720 --> 00:13:14.317 >> But the cost of getting to there, the 00:13:14.400 --> 00:13:16.677 compute, the chips, 00:13:16.760 --> 00:13:20.437 um the fab, um 00:13:20.520 --> 00:13:24.797 the powering, that to me What are the What are the you 00:13:24.880 --> 00:13:27.757 know, those are huge >> factor Yeah, I think the limiting factor 00:13:27.840 --> 00:13:31.837 for um AI deployment is fundamentally 00:13:31.920 --> 00:13:35.437 electrical power. >> It's just It's right. It's energy. 00:13:35.520 --> 00:13:38.797 >> Yeah, yeah. Um I mean we're we're we're seeing the the 00:13:38.880 --> 00:13:41.197 rate of AI chip production increase 00:13:41.280 --> 00:13:46.837 exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is uh negligible. 00:13:46.920 --> 00:13:50.797 >> 4% a year. >> Facts. >> Yeah. It's clear that we're we're we're 00:13:50.880 --> 00:13:53.557 we're very soon, maybe even later this year, 00:13:53.640 --> 00:13:57.917 uh we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on. 00:13:58.000 --> 00:14:02.557 Except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. 00:14:02.640 --> 00:14:05.877 >> They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak. 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:10.277 >> Uh actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's 00:14:10.360 --> 00:14:11.677 I believe China's production capacity on 00:14:11.760 --> 00:14:17.397 solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year, um and they're deploying over 1,000 gigawatts a 00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:20.877 year of of solar. Um 00:14:20.960 --> 00:14:23.637 Now you you know for continuous solar 00:14:23.720 --> 00:14:27.997 load, you divide that by roughly I don't know four or five. 00:14:28.080 --> 00:14:31.117 Uh call it that's around 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:36.677 uh 250 gigawatts of steady state power um paired with batteries. 00:14:36.760 --> 00:14:43.277 Um and that's a very big number. That's half of the average power usage in the US. 00:14:43.360 --> 00:14:43.677 >> Right. 00:14:43.760 --> 00:14:47.197 >> So US US power uh usage on average is is 00:14:47.280 --> 00:14:52.997 500 gigawatts. Uh China just in solar just like just in in in in in solar like 00:14:53.080 --> 00:14:56.357 that can provide steady state power. 00:14:56.440 --> 00:15:00.077 Uh and batteries can do half of the US 00:15:00.160 --> 00:15:02.437 electricity output per year just with 00:15:02.520 --> 00:15:04.997 solar. Solar's by far it 00:15:05.080 --> 00:15:09.637 the the the biggest source of of of energy. Um and actually when you look 00:15:09.720 --> 00:15:14.517 beyond or even even even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth, 00:15:14.600 --> 00:15:15.197 uh 00:15:15.280 --> 00:15:18.717 the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. 00:15:18.800 --> 00:15:21.597 This is an important thing to consider. 00:15:21.680 --> 00:15:26.037 Um So, the the sun is 99.8% 00:15:26.120 --> 00:15:28.197 of the mass of the solar system. 00:15:28.280 --> 00:15:30.397 Jupiter is about 0.1% and everything 00:15:30.480 --> 00:15:32.157 else is miscellaneous. 00:15:32.240 --> 00:15:35.877 Um now, even if you were to uh 00:15:35.960 --> 00:15:40.837 burn Jupiter in a in a thermonuclear reactor, uh 00:15:40.920 --> 00:15:44.437 the sun the the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up 00:15:44.520 --> 00:15:49.557 to 100% cuz Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported teleported three more 00:15:49.640 --> 00:15:52.717 Jupiters into our solar system, 00:15:52.800 --> 00:15:55.717 the and and burned three more Jupiters 00:15:55.800 --> 00:15:58.277 and everything else in the solar system, 00:15:58.360 --> 00:16:00.037 the sun's 00:16:00.120 --> 00:16:03.757 energy would still round up to 100%. 00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:06.317 So, it's really all about the sun. 00:16:06.400 --> 00:16:09.997 Um and that's that's why uh one of things we'll be doing with 00:16:10.080 --> 00:16:13.157 SpaceX uh you know, within a few years 00:16:13.240 --> 00:16:17.037 is launching um solar-powered AI satellites. 00:16:17.120 --> 00:16:21.397 >> Right. >> Um because the space is really the source of 00:16:21.480 --> 00:16:25.717 immense power and then you don't need to take up any room on Earth. 00:16:25.800 --> 00:16:28.637 Uh there's so much room in space 00:16:28.720 --> 00:16:32.397 and you can scale to uh enormous uh 00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:34.757 I mean, you can you can scale to 00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:40.760 uh I I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terawatts a year. 00:16:42.280 --> 00:16:45.757 >> But, we you and I have had these conversations before, but 00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:49.477 why don't you tell the audience what would it take for the United States and 00:16:49.560 --> 00:16:51.877 what type of geography would it take to 00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:54.397 have that solar field to electrify the 00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:56.557 United States? And And then, let me ask 00:16:56.640 --> 00:16:59.277 a question, why aren't we doing it? 00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:01.757 >> Yeah, so, I mean, I I guess rough way to 00:17:01.840 --> 00:17:03.397 think about it is 00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:07.077 um 100 miles by 100 miles or quote 160 00:17:07.160 --> 00:17:09.677 km by 160 km 00:17:09.760 --> 00:17:12.677 of solar is enough to power the entire 00:17:12.760 --> 00:17:15.317 United States. 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:19.917 So, you know, 100 100 mi mi by 100 mi area is is I mean that you could take 00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:24.657 basically a small corner of Utah, >> Nevada, >> Nevada, New Mexico. 00:17:24.740 --> 00:17:27.517 >> [clears throat] >> Obviously, you wouldn't want it all in one place, but 00:17:27.600 --> 00:17:31.957 it it it it's it's it is a very small percentage of the area of 00:17:32.040 --> 00:17:36.517 of the US to generate all of the electricity that the US uses. 00:17:36.600 --> 00:17:38.477 Um and the same is true actually, I 00:17:38.560 --> 00:17:40.957 mean, for for Europe. You you could take 00:17:41.040 --> 00:17:43.637 a small You could take uh 00:17:43.720 --> 00:17:46.237 uh relatively unpopulated areas of, say, 00:17:46.320 --> 00:17:51.357 Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs. 00:17:51.440 --> 00:17:55.037 >> So, why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the 00:17:55.120 --> 00:17:57.597 United States? >> Uh well, there is 00:17:57.680 --> 00:17:59.477 >> as it is in China. 00:17:59.560 --> 00:18:02.477 >> Well, unfortunately, in in the US the 00:18:02.560 --> 00:18:07.717 the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high. 00:18:07.800 --> 00:18:11.677 Um >> [clears throat] >> and that makes the economics of deploying solar 00:18:11.760 --> 00:18:16.077 uh so artificially high because China makes 00:18:16.160 --> 00:18:19.317 almost all the solar. Um and and the tax that 00:18:19.400 --> 00:18:23.597 >> What would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially? If it's that 00:18:23.680 --> 00:18:29.317 scale. >> Yeah, I I think I think uh 00:18:29.400 --> 00:18:31.837 Well, I can tell you what what we're going to do 00:18:31.920 --> 00:18:36.757 in SpaceX and Tesla was is we're we're building up um large-scale solar. 00:18:36.840 --> 00:18:39.077 >> Right. >> So, the the SpaceX and Tesla team is 00:18:39.160 --> 00:18:43.997 both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in 00:18:44.080 --> 00:18:47.637 the US. Of manufactured solar power. 00:18:47.720 --> 00:18:51.917 Um and um I'd probably say like a sign of about 3 00:18:52.000 --> 00:18:55.517 years or something. But this this these are pretty big numbers. 00:18:55.600 --> 00:18:59.997 >> Mhm. >> Um and um you know, I I'd encourage others to do 00:19:00.080 --> 00:19:03.117 the same to do the same. Um 00:19:03.200 --> 00:19:07.397 We obviously don't control the you know, your US tariff policy. 00:19:07.480 --> 00:19:12.157 Uh but uh for for for uh other countries, 00:19:12.240 --> 00:19:16.237 uh it I would rec you know that this China makes 00:19:16.320 --> 00:19:18.157 solar cells that are incredibly low 00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:24.680 cost, and I think uh it would be worth uh doing large-scale solar. 00:19:27.360 --> 00:19:32.677 >> So, >> [clears throat] >> I know you are like you're going to be 00:19:32.760 --> 00:19:36.957 having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, 00:19:37.040 --> 00:19:39.677 when I when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. 00:19:39.760 --> 00:19:42.640 >> Yeah. >> Um 00:19:43.640 --> 00:19:48.077 how quickly you you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and 00:19:48.160 --> 00:19:49.837 how quickly can they be deployed in a 00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:55.197 manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and 00:19:55.280 --> 00:19:58.117 be uh create that that abundance that you 00:19:58.200 --> 00:20:02.237 talked about? >> [clears throat] 00:20:02.320 --> 00:20:07.917 >> Well, hu- humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think 00:20:08.000 --> 00:20:10.557 uh we we we we do have some 00:20:10.640 --> 00:20:15.357 the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. 00:20:15.440 --> 00:20:19.477 Um we expect it it probably later this year, 00:20:19.560 --> 00:20:24.357 by the end of this year, I think they'll be doing um more more complex tasks. 00:20:24.440 --> 00:20:29.367 Um and and be still deployed in an industrial environment. 00:20:29.450 --> 00:20:33.797 >> [clears throat] >> And uh and probably sometime next year, I'd say 00:20:33.880 --> 00:20:37.277 that by the by the end of next year, I I 00:20:37.360 --> 00:20:42.077 think uh we'll be selling humanoid robots uh to 00:20:42.160 --> 00:20:46.157 the public. Um that that's when we are confident that 00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:49.197 the it's very high reliability, very high safety, 00:20:49.280 --> 00:20:53.557 um and the range of functionality is uh is is also very high. You can basically 00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:56.197 ask it to do anything you'd like. 00:20:56.280 --> 00:20:58.757 >> You're [clears throat] already seeing that in Tesla cars. This 00:20:58.840 --> 00:21:01.677 the software changes that you're doing in What is it? Every quarter now a 00:21:01.760 --> 00:21:04.397 software change that upgrades the the 00:21:04.480 --> 00:21:07.717 ability of the robot within the car? 00:21:07.800 --> 00:21:12.077 >> Uh yes, uh the Tesla full self-driving software we updated sometimes once a 00:21:12.160 --> 00:21:16.517 week. Um and recently some [clears throat] of the 00:21:16.600 --> 00:21:20.437 insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe 00:21:20.520 --> 00:21:25.317 when Tesla full self-driving is so safe that uh 00:21:25.400 --> 00:21:30.157 they're they're offering uh customers half-price insurance 00:21:30.240 --> 00:21:33.237 if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in the car. 00:21:33.320 --> 00:21:35.877 >> And that could be monitored by the insurance company. Can they Is that part 00:21:35.960 --> 00:21:39.040 of the agreement then? >> Yeah. 00:21:39.960 --> 00:21:43.597 Um but but >> [clears throat] >> I I think I think 00:21:43.680 --> 00:21:48.757 uh self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. 00:21:48.840 --> 00:21:53.877 >> Right. >> Um and Tesla's rolled out uh 00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:56.797 it's a robotaxi service in a few cities and >> Right. 00:21:56.880 --> 00:22:02.077 >> will uh I be very very widespread by the end of this year 00:22:02.160 --> 00:22:06.077 within the US. And then we hope to get supervised full 00:22:06.160 --> 00:22:10.117 self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month. 00:22:10.200 --> 00:22:14.317 >> Really that quickly? >> Yeah, and then uh 00:22:14.400 --> 00:22:17.557 maybe a similar time timing for China hopefully. 00:22:17.640 --> 00:22:19.237 >> I want to move to space cuz historically 00:22:19.320 --> 00:22:21.877 space is very capital intensive and it 00:22:21.960 --> 00:22:24.797 historically been done by governments of 00:22:24.880 --> 00:22:27.517 at least SpaceX changed the whole model. 00:22:27.600 --> 00:22:30.677 Um but we've seen it's slow to scale and 00:22:30.760 --> 00:22:32.477 now I'm starting to see it ramping up in 00:22:32.560 --> 00:22:36.037 what you're doing and other things. Um 00:22:36.120 --> 00:22:39.757 talk to us about the reason you know the automation and AI how it's 00:22:39.840 --> 00:22:44.117 changing the economics in building and preparing for us in operating in 00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:49.640 space. >> Uh sure. Um 00:22:50.930 --> 00:22:54.157 >> [clears throat] >> Well, the the key breakthrough that tells that that's 00:22:54.240 --> 00:22:57.717 the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full 00:22:57.800 --> 00:23:02.957 reusability. >> [clears throat] >> Um so no one has ever achieved full 00:23:03.040 --> 00:23:07.677 reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. 00:23:07.760 --> 00:23:11.117 Um we've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost 00:23:11.200 --> 00:23:14.997 stage. We've We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. 00:23:15.080 --> 00:23:20.037 Um but uh we we don't we have to uh throw away the upper stage. The upper 00:23:20.120 --> 00:23:24.357 stage sort of burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. So, and that that the cost of 00:23:24.440 --> 00:23:27.997 that is equivalent to a small to medium-size jet. 00:23:28.080 --> 00:23:32.477 So, um but with with Starship, which is a giant 00:23:32.560 --> 00:23:34.917 rocket, it's the it's the largest flying machine ever made. 00:23:35.000 --> 00:23:38.677 >> That's the rocket that you using for the idea of going to Mars, right? 00:23:38.760 --> 00:23:43.997 >> Yeah, Mars and the moon um as well as for uh high-volume satellite stuff. 00:23:44.080 --> 00:23:47.437 So, Starship um 00:23:47.520 --> 00:23:52.717 hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be 00:23:52.800 --> 00:23:55.357 um a profound 00:23:55.440 --> 00:23:59.237 invention uh because 00:23:59.320 --> 00:24:01.877 uh the cost of access to space will will 00:24:01.960 --> 00:24:07.117 drop by a factor of a hundred when you achieve full reusability. Um 00:24:07.200 --> 00:24:09.157 >> Right. >> It's It's the same sort of economic 00:24:09.240 --> 00:24:14.357 difference that you would expect that between say a reusable aircraft and a 00:24:14.440 --> 00:24:18.557 non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every 00:24:18.640 --> 00:24:21.477 flight, that would be a very expensive flight. 00:24:21.560 --> 00:24:24.477 Um but if you only have to refuel, 00:24:24.560 --> 00:24:27.037 uh then it's the cost of the fuel. 00:24:27.120 --> 00:24:31.677 And so, that's really the uh the 00:24:31.760 --> 00:24:36.557 the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space uh 00:24:36.640 --> 00:24:37.797 we think 00:24:37.880 --> 00:24:41.037 uh below the cost of uh 00:24:41.120 --> 00:24:46.277 of freight on aircraft. Uh so, 00:24:46.360 --> 00:24:48.837 you know, under under a hundred dollars a a pound 00:24:48.920 --> 00:24:53.337 type of thing easily. Um So, it it it it makes uh 00:24:53.420 --> 00:24:57.677 >> [clears throat and cough] >> putting large satellites into into space 00:24:57.760 --> 00:25:01.757 very low very very cheap. Um and then when you have solar in 00:25:01.840 --> 00:25:06.397 space, you you get uh five times more effectiveness maybe even 00:25:06.480 --> 00:25:08.717 more than that than solar on the ground. 00:25:08.800 --> 00:25:11.557 Because it's it's always sunny >> It's cold. 00:25:11.640 --> 00:25:15.197 >> It Yeah, it's it's it's always Well, it's always sunny, so you you you don't 00:25:15.280 --> 00:25:18.717 have a day-night cycle or seasonality or weather. 00:25:18.800 --> 00:25:20.717 >> Um and you get about 00:25:20.800 --> 00:25:25.997 30% more power in space uh because uh you don't have atmospheric attenuation 00:25:26.080 --> 00:25:31.397 of the power. >> Right. >> The net effect is solar is five times more uh 00:25:31.480 --> 00:25:36.077 The any given solar panel will do five times more uh 00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:38.877 energy in space than on the ground. 00:25:38.960 --> 00:25:42.677 >> Is there any capacity in doing that and and then taking that power and bringing 00:25:42.760 --> 00:25:46.357 it back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that or or you're just 00:25:46.440 --> 00:25:51.637 taking that power and utilizing it for the needs like building um 00:25:51.720 --> 00:25:55.477 um AI data centers in the space? 00:25:55.560 --> 00:25:58.997 >> I I think I think the the case is it's it's a no-brainer for building 00:25:59.080 --> 00:26:02.197 uh AI solar-powered AI data centers in space 00:26:02.280 --> 00:26:05.357 um cuz as you mentioned it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if you're 00:26:05.440 --> 00:26:09.037 if you're in the shadow, uh then it's it's very cold in space just 00:26:09.120 --> 00:26:11.717 3° Kelvin. So, you just have you have 00:26:11.800 --> 00:26:15.117 solar panels facing the sun and then uh 00:26:15.200 --> 00:26:18.277 a uh radiator that's like point like 00:26:18.360 --> 00:26:22.277 pointed away from the sun. Um so, it has no sun incidence and then it's and then 00:26:22.360 --> 00:26:25.717 it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. 00:26:25.800 --> 00:26:29.437 So, uh net net effect is that the lowest 00:26:29.520 --> 00:26:33.637 cost place to put AI will be space and that and 00:26:33.720 --> 00:26:38.597 that'll be true within two years. Maybe three three at the latest. 00:26:38.680 --> 00:26:42.637 >> Wow. >> [clears throat] >> So, looking 10 or 20 years out, um 00:26:42.720 --> 00:26:45.317 what would how would you describe success 00:26:45.400 --> 00:26:50.157 with AI or space technology? And where do you see it? Is that 00:26:50.240 --> 00:26:53.197 Can you are you more certain of what's going to happen in the next three years 00:26:53.280 --> 00:26:57.997 or or five or 10? >> I don't know what what's going to happen 00:26:58.080 --> 00:26:59.717 in 10 years, but 00:26:59.800 --> 00:27:05.037 the rate at which AI is progressing, uh I think we [clears throat] 00:27:05.120 --> 00:27:09.877 we're we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the 00:27:09.960 --> 00:27:13.357 end of this year. Um and I would say no later than next year. 00:27:13.440 --> 00:27:15.717 >> Wow. >> Um 00:27:15.800 --> 00:27:19.357 and then probably by 2030 or 2031, call 00:27:19.440 --> 00:27:23.327 it five years, no, uh AI will be smarter than 00:27:23.410 --> 00:27:27.920 [clears throat] uh all of humanity collectively. 00:27:28.240 --> 00:27:31.357 >> We only have a number of minutes left, but I want I want to humanize you for a 00:27:31.440 --> 00:27:35.877 second. >> [laughter] >> So there's no speculation that you're a >> peace. 00:27:35.960 --> 00:27:40.837 >> Right. Right. I want to I mean, I would frame this question by 00:27:40.920 --> 00:27:41.877 you are the most successful 00:27:41.960 --> 00:27:44.517 entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st 00:27:44.600 --> 00:27:47.997 century, maybe beyond. Um I want to So I 00:27:48.080 --> 00:27:52.807 want to really get this, you know, what inspired you, who's inspired you? 00:27:52.890 --> 00:27:55.077 >> [snorts] >> What was the foundation of of your 00:27:55.160 --> 00:27:56.517 curiosity? 00:27:56.600 --> 00:28:00.037 And and importantly, what was the what 00:28:00.120 --> 00:28:04.477 was the was there a a aha moment, an epiphany at any time in your life and 00:28:04.560 --> 00:28:07.040 career? 00:28:07.640 --> 00:28:13.437 >> Well, um I mean, as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi and fantasy 00:28:13.520 --> 00:28:15.557 books. >> Yep, we talked about that. 00:28:15.640 --> 00:28:18.157 >> And uh comic books. 00:28:18.240 --> 00:28:20.837 Uh and I always liked technology. Uh it 00:28:20.920 --> 00:28:23.197 didn't expect to be where I am today. It 00:28:23.280 --> 00:28:28.837 seems incredibly implausible. Um but uh yeah, I was I was inspired by 00:28:28.920 --> 00:28:33.197 reading about books about the future, about science fiction, and uh 00:28:33.280 --> 00:28:36.997 and I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction forever. At 00:28:37.080 --> 00:28:40.837 some point, turn science fiction to science fact. Um 00:28:40.920 --> 00:28:46.517 and uh you know, we want to have like Starfleet. 00:28:46.600 --> 00:28:49.517 >> [clears throat] >> And Star Star Trek really for for real. 00:28:49.600 --> 00:28:53.717 Like where where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, 00:28:53.800 --> 00:28:57.077 going to other planets, traveling to other star systems, going 00:28:57.160 --> 00:28:58.277 to other places where we have never gone. 00:28:58.360 --> 00:29:00.757 >> beamed up to go back to New York. 00:29:00.840 --> 00:29:06.400 You know, I I I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying. 00:29:06.920 --> 00:29:09.360 >> Yeah. 00:29:09.920 --> 00:29:11.317 You know, talking about Star Trek. 00:29:11.400 --> 00:29:15.597 >> No, I guess my my essential I what I would call the philosophy 00:29:15.680 --> 00:29:20.277 philosophy of curiosity. Um I'd like to understand um the meaning of life, 00:29:20.360 --> 00:29:25.717 you know, the it is the standard model of is the standard model of physics correct 00:29:25.800 --> 00:29:29.037 >> Mhm. >> regarding the beginning of life of beginning of existence and the end of 00:29:29.120 --> 00:29:32.597 the universe. Um what what questions do we not know to 00:29:32.680 --> 00:29:38.237 ask that we should ask? Um and AI will help us with these things. 00:29:38.320 --> 00:29:40.677 Um so I'm just trying to understand how how 00:29:40.760 --> 00:29:44.957 do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are. 00:29:45.040 --> 00:29:48.557 Um and if if we've got if we've got spaceships that are traveling to other 00:29:48.640 --> 00:29:52.437 star systems, uh we may find we may encounter aliens 00:29:52.520 --> 00:29:56.517 and or we may find many long dead alien civilizations. 00:29:56.600 --> 00:30:00.517 But I I'm just I just I just want to know what's going on. I'm curious about 00:30:00.600 --> 00:30:02.957 the the universe and 00:30:03.040 --> 00:30:07.797 um that's my philosophy. 00:30:07.880 --> 00:30:12.557 >> Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime? 00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:15.437 >> Uh yeah. I mean I would say like I I you know, I There 00:30:15.520 --> 00:30:17.197 >> That's a long commitment >> I've been asked uh but 00:30:17.280 --> 00:30:19.397 >> Isn't that 3 years each way? 00:30:19.480 --> 00:30:22.317 >> Uh it's uh 6 months. >> 6 months? That's all it is? 00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:25.557 >> Yeah, 6 months but the planets only align every every 2 years. 00:30:25.640 --> 00:30:30.597 >> Okay. >> So >> [clears throat] >> uh Yeah, I've been asked a few times like 00:30:30.680 --> 00:30:34.677 do I want to you know, die on Mars and I'm like yes, 00:30:34.760 --> 00:30:38.660 but just not on impact. >> [laughter] 00:30:41.120 --> 00:30:42.277 >> That's a good that's a good answer. 00:30:42.360 --> 00:30:47.877 Anyway, we're out of time. I Hopefully everybody enjoyed this. 00:30:47.960 --> 00:30:50.717 I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. 00:30:50.800 --> 00:30:53.557 I could tell you he's a great friend. 00:30:53.640 --> 00:30:56.637 And I constantly learn so much from him. 00:30:56.720 --> 00:31:00.597 And I'm totally inspired by what he's 00:31:00.680 --> 00:31:03.517 what he has done. 00:31:03.600 --> 00:31:06.677 I've been been inspired who he is. 00:31:06.760 --> 00:31:10.317 And I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future. 00:31:10.400 --> 00:31:13.877 And I don't think it's such a bad future. And I agree with his optimism. 00:31:13.960 --> 00:31:16.397 So, Elon, thank you. Any last words? 00:31:16.480 --> 00:31:21.277 >> Um Um Well, I think generally 00:31:21.360 --> 00:31:25.437 I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and 00:31:25.520 --> 00:31:27.917 excited about the future. >> Good. 00:31:28.000 --> 00:31:30.317 >> Um and and and generally, I think for 00:31:30.400 --> 00:31:32.597 quality of life, it is actually better 00:31:32.680 --> 00:31:35.477 to err on the side of being an optimist 00:31:35.560 --> 00:31:39.677 and wrong rather than a pessimist and right. 00:31:39.760 --> 00:31:42.850 >> On that note >> [applause and cheering] 00:31:47.380 --> 00:31:49.400 [applause]