1 00:00:01,640 --> 00:00:06,467 That was not a That was not a large applause. Start again. 2 00:00:06,550 --> 00:00:08,570 >> [applause and cheering] 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:17,597 >> That's better. Thank you. >> Yeah, we're going to make this interesting. 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:19,997 >> [laughter] >> How many How many quotes are you going 5 00:00:20,080 --> 00:00:24,807 to want that are going to be after this session? 6 00:00:24,890 --> 00:00:27,957 >> [snorts] >> Uh I don't know. I mean five. 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,477 >> Okay. >> [laughter] >> So, uh good afternoon everyone. It's 8 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,357 great to see everybody here. Uh it's 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,077 been an amazing week here in Davos. 10 00:00:36,160 --> 00:00:40,317 Um hopefully everybody saw 11 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,477 that we are having conversations here. 12 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,997 Hopefully everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:50,277 disagree. There's many conversations we may have agreed. But through those 14 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,677 conversations and I think today's result with a peace 15 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:58,437 agreement earlier today, um the World Economic Forum is here to 16 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,357 have those conversations, to have understandings, 17 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:05,477 and also resolution. So, um 18 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,277 uh it's an important component of who we 19 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,997 and what we are and I'm thrilled 20 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,557 uh to have Elon Musk here. Um 21 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,797 He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So, uh thank 22 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,520 you Elon. >> Uh you're most welcome. 23 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,597 Um I mean I heard I heard about I heard about the formation of the 24 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,717 the peace summit and I was like is that uh 25 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,897 is that p i e c? Uh 26 00:01:34,980 --> 00:01:38,477 >> [laughter] >> You know, a little piece of 27 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,137 Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. 28 00:01:40,220 --> 00:01:45,077 [laughter] >> We got one. >> All we want is peace. 29 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:49,637 >> Okay, I would have As I said, I'm a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock since we 30 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:53,877 went public. Um um the compounding return of BlackRock to 31 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,397 our shareholders was 21%. 32 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,237 Uh since Elon took Tesla 33 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,117 uh public, his compounded return 34 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,480 is 43%. 35 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,517 This is I just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. 36 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:13,317 This is why 37 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,157 more citizens should be investing with 38 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,997 growth, investing with your countries. 39 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,317 Imagine if a lot of pension funds 40 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,237 invested with Elon at when Tesla went 41 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,597 public and how much 42 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,517 return would be 43 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,197 all the pension funds that invested side 44 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,197 by side with Elon and the growth. So, um 45 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,397 a spectacular return. There's very few companies 46 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,797 Well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has 47 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,397 that compounded return. So, congratulations. 48 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:46,957 >> Oh, thank you. >> good measurement. 49 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,077 >> Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla, and that's the reason. 50 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,557 >> So, I want to get into uh the dirt, the 51 00:02:53,640 --> 00:02:55,317 the meaningful component about 52 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,357 technology, the possibilities. 53 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,157 Um I want to talk about AI and robotics, 54 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,597 energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, 55 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,277 engineering discipline, scale, execution. 56 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:10,877 Um and few 57 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,317 few people, if not anyone, has the 58 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,797 experience and the fortitude to confront 59 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:21,637 these issues head-on. Not just the ideas, but the execution 60 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,797 across so many different technologies, Elon. And that's why I thought I thought 61 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:30,177 it's important for us to have this dialogue here uh in Davos. So, 62 00:03:30,260 --> 00:03:33,157 >> [clears throat] >> you're presently building on AI, on 63 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,077 robotics, on space, on energy all at the 64 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:41,277 same time. When you look across those efforts, 65 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,157 what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint? 66 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:50,237 >> Uh well, they're all very difficult technology challenges, um but the 67 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:50,877 uh 68 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,557 the overall goal of my companies is to 69 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,277 maximize the future of civilization. 70 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:02,077 Like, basically, maximize the probability that civilization has great future. 71 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,357 Um, and, uh, 72 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,917 to expand consciousness beyond Earth. 73 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,277 So, if you take SpaceX, for example, 74 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,797 that SpaceX is about both advancing 75 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:16,477 rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond 76 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:20,237 Earth, uh, to the moon, to Mars, uh, eventually 77 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,957 to other star systems. And, uh, 78 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,277 I know I think we should always view consciousness, uh, 79 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,357 life as we know it as as precarious and delicate, 80 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:35,237 um, because to the best of our knowledge, we we we 81 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,357 don't know of life anywhere else. You 82 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,037 know, I'm often asked, um, 83 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:45,437 "Are there aliens among us?" And I'll say that I am one, but 84 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,637 >> Or you're from the future. >> They don't believe me. 85 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:52,557 >> Okay. >> Um, so, uh, but I I would I >> [clears throat] 86 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,677 >> I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. 87 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,557 Um, and, uh, 88 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:01,437 we we have 9,000 satellites up there, 89 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,877 and not once have we had to maneuver around an an alien spaceship. 90 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,397 So, I'm like, I don't know. It's 91 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,877 Bottom line is I think we need to assume 92 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,717 that life and consciousness is extremely 93 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,277 rare, and it might only be us. 94 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:21,437 And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to to 95 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,957 ensure that the the light of can the light the light of 96 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,517 consciousness is not extinguished, because we're 97 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,637 effectively we're we're we're The way I view it is 98 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:35,437 the image in my mind is of a a tiny candle 99 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,557 in a vast darkness, a tiny candle of consciousness 100 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,037 that could easily go out. Um, and that's why it's important to 101 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,637 make life multi-planetary, uh, such that if there is a natural 102 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:51,437 disaster or a man-made disaster on Earth that consciousness continues. That's the 103 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,477 purpose of SpaceX. Um 104 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:59,517 Uh Te- Tesla is obviously about uh sustainable technology and 105 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,517 uh and and also at this moment we've we've 106 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,397 sort of added to our mission sustainable 107 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:10,717 abundance. So, with uh robotics and AI 108 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,597 um th- this this is really the path to 109 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,077 abundance for all. If you say you know 110 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:18,957 people often talk about 111 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:23,117 uh solving global poverty or essentially 112 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,117 how how do we make give everyone 113 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:31,157 a very high standard of living. I I think the only way to do this is AI and 114 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,117 and robotics. Um which which doesn't mean that it is 115 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,517 uh wi- without its issues. I mean this we 116 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:43,277 need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. 117 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:47,277 We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. 118 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:51,117 Uh you know, Terminator. 119 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,317 Is is a great He's great great movies. I love his movies. But but we don't want 120 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:58,677 to be in Terminator, obviously. Um but but we if you have 121 00:06:58,760 --> 00:06:59,477 um 122 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,717 ubiquitous AI that is essentially free 123 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,077 or close to it and ubiquitous robotics 124 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:11,757 uh then uh you will have an an ex- an explosion in the in the global 125 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,317 economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly uh 126 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,477 beyond all precedent. 127 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,157 >> Elon, can that expansion be broad or is 128 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,477 it narrow? And how can that be created? 129 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,877 How can it broaden the global economy? 130 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,077 >> Yeah, it's I mean what 131 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:33,557 I mean a way to think of it is that if 132 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,117 you have a large number of humanoid 133 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,837 robots um the economic output is 134 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:44,557 the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. 135 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,597 >> Right. >> Um 136 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:52,277 and and actually my prediction is in the in the benign scenario of the future 137 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,157 that we will the robots will actually make so many 138 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:59,477 robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. 139 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,357 >> Meaning you won't be able to even think of something 140 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,117 >> to ask the robot for at a certain point. 141 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:11,157 Like like the there will be such an abundance of goods and services 142 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,717 because the [clears throat] my prediction is that they'll be they'll 143 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:19,757 be more robots than people. So >> But how do you then have human purpose 144 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:24,437 in that scenario? >> Yeah, I mean you know, there was nothing's perfect, 145 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,557 you know, but >> [laughter] >> um 146 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,717 but but it I mean I mean it is it is a a 147 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:35,677 necessary um like you can't have both. You can't have 148 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,517 work that has to be done uh um and 149 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:44,357 uh amazing abundance for all. Um because if it's if it's work that has 150 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,157 to be done that then then you and then only some people can do it then 151 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,277 you then you you you can't have abundance for all. 152 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:54,877 >> narrow. >> It's narrow, exactly. So um 153 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:58,117 but if you if you have billions of humanoid robots and I think there will 154 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,717 be um then I think I think everyone on Earth 155 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,157 is going to have one and going to want one. 156 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,717 Um because uh you would who wouldn't want a 157 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:12,597 robot to you know um assuming it's very safe 158 00:09:12,680 --> 00:09:16,117 uh watch over your kids, take care of your pets uh 159 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,837 if you have elderly parents uh a lot of friends of mine have said they 160 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:23,837 have elderly parents and it's it's very difficult to take care of them. 161 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,917 >> Yeah, it's expensive and it's it's expensive and there just aren't enough 162 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,117 people to take care of the there aren't enough young people to take care of the 163 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:31,477 old people. >> Right. 164 00:09:31,560 --> 00:09:33,837 >> Um so if you if they 165 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,197 um if if you had a robot that could take 166 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,477 care of an and protect an an elderly parent, I think that would be great. 167 00:09:41,560 --> 00:09:44,117 That would be an amazing thing to have. 168 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,357 Um and and that I think we will have those things. 169 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,997 So, I mean overall I'm I'm very optimistic about the future. I think 170 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:56,877 we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, uh which is very cool. 171 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,237 Um and uh and and definitely >> [clears throat] 172 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,277 >> we are in the most interesting time in history. 173 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,197 Um I think there's more more interesting 174 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:08,437 time in history. So. 175 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,237 >> Can we Can you and I reverse aging in 176 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:16,520 this new history or or or are we going to see it? 177 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:21,117 >> I you know, I haven't I haven't put much time into uh the aging stuff. 178 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,477 I I I do think it is a very solvable problem. Like like you can do 179 00:10:25,560 --> 00:10:30,237 Uh I think when when when when we find figure out what causes aging, >> Mhm. 180 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:34,037 >> I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. No, it's not a subtle thing. 181 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,157 Um The reason I say it's not a subtle thing 182 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:40,117 is because all the cells in your body, you know, with some 183 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:41,557 pretty much age at the same rate. 184 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,397 >> Right. >> Uh you I've never seen someone with with an old 185 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:49,277 left arm and a young right arm, ever in my life. 186 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,837 Um so, why is that? It it it that that means that there must be a clock, a 187 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:54,517 synchronizing clock. >> Right. 188 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:59,117 >> That is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body. 189 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:03,077 Um and uh Uh 190 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,437 you know, the There is some 191 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,437 benefit to death, by the way. 192 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:13,677 There's There's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan, 193 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:18,077 uh because if you if you have if people do live for a very very long time, I 194 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:22,517 think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of of things 195 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,317 just getting kind of locked in place. 196 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:31,197 Um and uh Yeah, you know, it it it it it it just 197 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,600 may become um 198 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,397 stultifying, just not uh 199 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,277 lack lack vibrancy. Um but but that 200 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,477 that's it. Do I think we'll 201 00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:47,437 figure out ways to extend life and um 202 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:51,917 and maybe even reverse aging, I think that's highly likely. 203 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,357 >> I'm looking forward to that. 204 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,477 >> Yeah. >> So, um in 205 00:11:57,560 --> 00:11:59,397 the future that you talk about, the AI 206 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,357 models, autonomous machines, rockets, 207 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,597 depends on massive increases of compute, 208 00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:08,237 massive increases in energy, 209 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:12,837 expensive energy, manufacturing scale. 210 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:14,837 What are the bottlenecks to to get 211 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,037 there? And then once again, 212 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,917 with all that expenditures, again, how 213 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:25,360 can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow? 214 00:12:26,560 --> 00:12:29,317 >> Um >> [clears throat and cough] 215 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:34,437 >> I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because uh AI 216 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,637 companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. 217 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:42,037 And the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's is plummeting 218 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:46,917 every year. I mean, you almost the cost of AI is almost 219 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,197 meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis. 220 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,077 >> There's open There's open models now everywhere, yeah. 221 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,237 >> Yes, very There's open models >> [clears throat] 222 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,957 >> and the open models only lag They they may be a year behind >> Right. 223 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:00,677 >> the the private the sort of closed 224 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:05,197 models. Um so so I think 225 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:10,397 the the AI companies will seek as as many customers as possible, which means 226 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,637 they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world. 227 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:14,317 >> But the cost of getting to there, the 228 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,677 compute, the chips, 229 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,437 um the fab, um 230 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:24,797 the powering, that to me What are the What are the you 231 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,757 know, those are huge >> factor Yeah, I think the limiting factor 232 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,837 for um AI deployment is fundamentally 233 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,437 electrical power. >> It's just It's right. It's energy. 234 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,797 >> Yeah, yeah. Um I mean we're we're we're seeing the the 235 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,197 rate of AI chip production increase 236 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:46,837 exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is uh negligible. 237 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,797 >> 4% a year. >> Facts. >> Yeah. It's clear that we're we're we're 238 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,557 we're very soon, maybe even later this year, 239 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,917 uh we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on. 240 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:02,557 Except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. 241 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,877 >> They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak. 242 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:10,277 >> Uh actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's 243 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:11,677 I believe China's production capacity on 244 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:17,397 solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year, um and they're deploying over 1,000 gigawatts a 245 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,877 year of of solar. Um 246 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,637 Now you you know for continuous solar 247 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:27,997 load, you divide that by roughly I don't know four or five. 248 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,117 Uh call it that's around 249 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:36,677 uh 250 gigawatts of steady state power um paired with batteries. 250 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:43,277 Um and that's a very big number. That's half of the average power usage in the US. 251 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:43,677 >> Right. 252 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:47,197 >> So US US power uh usage on average is is 253 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:52,997 500 gigawatts. Uh China just in solar just like just in in in in in solar like 254 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,357 that can provide steady state power. 255 00:14:56,440 --> 00:15:00,077 Uh and batteries can do half of the US 256 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,437 electricity output per year just with 257 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,997 solar. Solar's by far it 258 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:09,637 the the the biggest source of of of energy. Um and actually when you look 259 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:14,517 beyond or even even even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth, 260 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:15,197 uh 261 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,717 the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. 262 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,597 This is an important thing to consider. 263 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:26,037 Um So, the the sun is 99.8% 264 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,197 of the mass of the solar system. 265 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,397 Jupiter is about 0.1% and everything 266 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:32,157 else is miscellaneous. 267 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,877 Um now, even if you were to uh 268 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:40,837 burn Jupiter in a in a thermonuclear reactor, uh 269 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,437 the sun the the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up 270 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:49,557 to 100% cuz Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported teleported three more 271 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,717 Jupiters into our solar system, 272 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,717 the and and burned three more Jupiters 273 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,277 and everything else in the solar system, 274 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,037 the sun's 275 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,757 energy would still round up to 100%. 276 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,317 So, it's really all about the sun. 277 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,997 Um and that's that's why uh one of things we'll be doing with 278 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,157 SpaceX uh you know, within a few years 279 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:17,037 is launching um solar-powered AI satellites. 280 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:21,397 >> Right. >> Um because the space is really the source of 281 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,717 immense power and then you don't need to take up any room on Earth. 282 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,637 Uh there's so much room in space 283 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,397 and you can scale to uh enormous uh 284 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,757 I mean, you can you can scale to 285 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:40,760 uh I I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terawatts a year. 286 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,757 >> But, we you and I have had these conversations before, but 287 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,477 why don't you tell the audience what would it take for the United States and 288 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,877 what type of geography would it take to 289 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,397 have that solar field to electrify the 290 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,557 United States? And And then, let me ask 291 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,277 a question, why aren't we doing it? 292 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,757 >> Yeah, so, I mean, I I guess rough way to 293 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:03,397 think about it is 294 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,077 um 100 miles by 100 miles or quote 160 295 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,677 km by 160 km 296 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,677 of solar is enough to power the entire 297 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,317 United States. 298 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,917 So, you know, 100 100 mi mi by 100 mi area is is I mean that you could take 299 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:24,657 basically a small corner of Utah, >> Nevada, >> Nevada, New Mexico. 300 00:17:24,740 --> 00:17:27,517 >> [clears throat] >> Obviously, you wouldn't want it all in one place, but 301 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:31,957 it it it it's it's it is a very small percentage of the area of 302 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:36,517 of the US to generate all of the electricity that the US uses. 303 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,477 Um and the same is true actually, I 304 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:40,957 mean, for for Europe. You you could take 305 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,637 a small You could take uh 306 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,237 uh relatively unpopulated areas of, say, 307 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:51,357 Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs. 308 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,037 >> So, why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the 309 00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:57,597 United States? >> Uh well, there is 310 00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,477 >> as it is in China. 311 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,477 >> Well, unfortunately, in in the US the 312 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:07,717 the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high. 313 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,677 Um >> [clears throat] >> and that makes the economics of deploying solar 314 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:16,077 uh so artificially high because China makes 315 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,317 almost all the solar. Um and and the tax that 316 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,597 >> What would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially? If it's that 317 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:29,317 scale. >> Yeah, I I think I think uh 318 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,837 Well, I can tell you what what we're going to do 319 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:36,757 in SpaceX and Tesla was is we're we're building up um large-scale solar. 320 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,077 >> Right. >> So, the the SpaceX and Tesla team is 321 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,997 both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in 322 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,637 the US. Of manufactured solar power. 323 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,917 Um and um I'd probably say like a sign of about 3 324 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,517 years or something. But this this these are pretty big numbers. 325 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,997 >> Mhm. >> Um and um you know, I I'd encourage others to do 326 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,117 the same to do the same. Um 327 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:07,397 We obviously don't control the you know, your US tariff policy. 328 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:12,157 Uh but uh for for for uh other countries, 329 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:16,237 uh it I would rec you know that this China makes 330 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,157 solar cells that are incredibly low 331 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:24,680 cost, and I think uh it would be worth uh doing large-scale solar. 332 00:19:27,360 --> 00:19:32,677 >> So, >> [clears throat] >> I know you are like you're going to be 333 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,957 having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, 334 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,677 when I when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. 335 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,640 >> Yeah. >> Um 336 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:48,077 how quickly you you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and 337 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:49,837 how quickly can they be deployed in a 338 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:55,197 manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and 339 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,117 be uh create that that abundance that you 340 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,237 talked about? >> [clears throat] 341 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:07,917 >> Well, hu- humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think 342 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,557 uh we we we we do have some 343 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,357 the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. 344 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:19,477 Um we expect it it probably later this year, 345 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,357 by the end of this year, I think they'll be doing um more more complex tasks. 346 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:29,367 Um and and be still deployed in an industrial environment. 347 00:20:29,450 --> 00:20:33,797 >> [clears throat] >> And uh and probably sometime next year, I'd say 348 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,277 that by the by the end of next year, I I 349 00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:42,077 think uh we'll be selling humanoid robots uh to 350 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:46,157 the public. Um that that's when we are confident that 351 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,197 the it's very high reliability, very high safety, 352 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:53,557 um and the range of functionality is uh is is also very high. You can basically 353 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,197 ask it to do anything you'd like. 354 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,757 >> You're [clears throat] already seeing that in Tesla cars. This 355 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,677 the software changes that you're doing in What is it? Every quarter now a 356 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,397 software change that upgrades the the 357 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,717 ability of the robot within the car? 358 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:12,077 >> Uh yes, uh the Tesla full self-driving software we updated sometimes once a 359 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:16,517 week. Um and recently some [clears throat] of the 360 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,437 insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe 361 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:25,317 when Tesla full self-driving is so safe that uh 362 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:30,157 they're they're offering uh customers half-price insurance 363 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,237 if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in the car. 364 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,877 >> And that could be monitored by the insurance company. Can they Is that part 365 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,040 of the agreement then? >> Yeah. 366 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,597 Um but but >> [clears throat] >> I I think I think 367 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:48,757 uh self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. 368 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:53,877 >> Right. >> Um and Tesla's rolled out uh 369 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,797 it's a robotaxi service in a few cities and >> Right. 370 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:02,077 >> will uh I be very very widespread by the end of this year 371 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:06,077 within the US. And then we hope to get supervised full 372 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,117 self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month. 373 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,317 >> Really that quickly? >> Yeah, and then uh 374 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,557 maybe a similar time timing for China hopefully. 375 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,237 >> I want to move to space cuz historically 376 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,877 space is very capital intensive and it 377 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,797 historically been done by governments of 378 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,517 at least SpaceX changed the whole model. 379 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,677 Um but we've seen it's slow to scale and 380 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,477 now I'm starting to see it ramping up in 381 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,037 what you're doing and other things. Um 382 00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:39,757 talk to us about the reason you know the automation and AI how it's 383 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:44,117 changing the economics in building and preparing for us in operating in 384 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:49,640 space. >> Uh sure. Um 385 00:22:50,930 --> 00:22:54,157 >> [clears throat] >> Well, the the key breakthrough that tells that that's 386 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,717 the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full 387 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:02,957 reusability. >> [clears throat] >> Um so no one has ever achieved full 388 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:07,677 reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. 389 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,117 Um we've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost 390 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,997 stage. We've We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. 391 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:20,037 Um but uh we we don't we have to uh throw away the upper stage. The upper 392 00:23:20,120 --> 00:23:24,357 stage sort of burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. So, and that that the cost of 393 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,997 that is equivalent to a small to medium-size jet. 394 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,477 So, um but with with Starship, which is a giant 395 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,917 rocket, it's the it's the largest flying machine ever made. 396 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,677 >> That's the rocket that you using for the idea of going to Mars, right? 397 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:43,997 >> Yeah, Mars and the moon um as well as for uh high-volume satellite stuff. 398 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,437 So, Starship um 399 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:52,717 hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be 400 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,357 um a profound 401 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:59,237 invention uh because 402 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,877 uh the cost of access to space will will 403 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:07,117 drop by a factor of a hundred when you achieve full reusability. Um 404 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,157 >> Right. >> It's It's the same sort of economic 405 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:14,357 difference that you would expect that between say a reusable aircraft and a 406 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,557 non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every 407 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,477 flight, that would be a very expensive flight. 408 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,477 Um but if you only have to refuel, 409 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,037 uh then it's the cost of the fuel. 410 00:24:27,120 --> 00:24:31,677 And so, that's really the uh the 411 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,557 the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space uh 412 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:37,797 we think 413 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,037 uh below the cost of uh 414 00:24:41,120 --> 00:24:46,277 of freight on aircraft. Uh so, 415 00:24:46,360 --> 00:24:48,837 you know, under under a hundred dollars a a pound 416 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:53,337 type of thing easily. Um So, it it it it makes uh 417 00:24:53,420 --> 00:24:57,677 >> [clears throat and cough] >> putting large satellites into into space 418 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,757 very low very very cheap. Um and then when you have solar in 419 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:06,397 space, you you get uh five times more effectiveness maybe even 420 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,717 more than that than solar on the ground. 421 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,557 Because it's it's always sunny >> It's cold. 422 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,197 >> It Yeah, it's it's it's always Well, it's always sunny, so you you you don't 423 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,717 have a day-night cycle or seasonality or weather. 424 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:20,717 >> Um and you get about 425 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:25,997 30% more power in space uh because uh you don't have atmospheric attenuation 426 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:31,397 of the power. >> Right. >> The net effect is solar is five times more uh 427 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:36,077 The any given solar panel will do five times more uh 428 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,877 energy in space than on the ground. 429 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,677 >> Is there any capacity in doing that and and then taking that power and bringing 430 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,357 it back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that or or you're just 431 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:51,637 taking that power and utilizing it for the needs like building um 432 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,477 um AI data centers in the space? 433 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,997 >> I I think I think the the case is it's it's a no-brainer for building 434 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,197 uh AI solar-powered AI data centers in space 435 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,357 um cuz as you mentioned it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if you're 436 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,037 if you're in the shadow, uh then it's it's very cold in space just 437 00:26:09,120 --> 00:26:11,717 3° Kelvin. So, you just have you have 438 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,117 solar panels facing the sun and then uh 439 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,277 a uh radiator that's like point like 440 00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:22,277 pointed away from the sun. Um so, it has no sun incidence and then it's and then 441 00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:25,717 it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. 442 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,437 So, uh net net effect is that the lowest 443 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:33,637 cost place to put AI will be space and that and 444 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,597 that'll be true within two years. Maybe three three at the latest. 445 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:42,637 >> Wow. >> [clears throat] >> So, looking 10 or 20 years out, um 446 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,317 what would how would you describe success 447 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:50,157 with AI or space technology? And where do you see it? Is that 448 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,197 Can you are you more certain of what's going to happen in the next three years 449 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:57,997 or or five or 10? >> I don't know what what's going to happen 450 00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,717 in 10 years, but 451 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:05,037 the rate at which AI is progressing, uh I think we [clears throat] 452 00:27:05,120 --> 00:27:09,877 we're we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the 453 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,357 end of this year. Um and I would say no later than next year. 454 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,717 >> Wow. >> Um 455 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,357 and then probably by 2030 or 2031, call 456 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:23,327 it five years, no, uh AI will be smarter than 457 00:27:23,410 --> 00:27:27,920 [clears throat] uh all of humanity collectively. 458 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,357 >> We only have a number of minutes left, but I want I want to humanize you for a 459 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,877 second. >> [laughter] >> So there's no speculation that you're a >> peace. 460 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,837 >> Right. Right. I want to I mean, I would frame this question by 461 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:41,877 you are the most successful 462 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,517 entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st 463 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,997 century, maybe beyond. Um I want to So I 464 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:52,807 want to really get this, you know, what inspired you, who's inspired you? 465 00:27:52,890 --> 00:27:55,077 >> [snorts] >> What was the foundation of of your 466 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,517 curiosity? 467 00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:00,037 And and importantly, what was the what 468 00:28:00,120 --> 00:28:04,477 was the was there a a aha moment, an epiphany at any time in your life and 469 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,040 career? 470 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:13,437 >> Well, um I mean, as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi and fantasy 471 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,557 books. >> Yep, we talked about that. 472 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,157 >> And uh comic books. 473 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,837 Uh and I always liked technology. Uh it 474 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,197 didn't expect to be where I am today. It 475 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:28,837 seems incredibly implausible. Um but uh yeah, I was I was inspired by 476 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:33,197 reading about books about the future, about science fiction, and uh 477 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,997 and I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction forever. At 478 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,837 some point, turn science fiction to science fact. Um 479 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:46,517 and uh you know, we want to have like Starfleet. 480 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,517 >> [clears throat] >> And Star Star Trek really for for real. 481 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,717 Like where where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, 482 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,077 going to other planets, traveling to other star systems, going 483 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,277 to other places where we have never gone. 484 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,757 >> beamed up to go back to New York. 485 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:06,400 You know, I I I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying. 486 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,360 >> Yeah. 487 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,317 You know, talking about Star Trek. 488 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:15,597 >> No, I guess my my essential I what I would call the philosophy 489 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:20,277 philosophy of curiosity. Um I'd like to understand um the meaning of life, 490 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:25,717 you know, the it is the standard model of is the standard model of physics correct 491 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,037 >> Mhm. >> regarding the beginning of life of beginning of existence and the end of 492 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,597 the universe. Um what what questions do we not know to 493 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:38,237 ask that we should ask? Um and AI will help us with these things. 494 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,677 Um so I'm just trying to understand how how 495 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,957 do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are. 496 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,557 Um and if if we've got if we've got spaceships that are traveling to other 497 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,437 star systems, uh we may find we may encounter aliens 498 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,517 and or we may find many long dead alien civilizations. 499 00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,517 But I I'm just I just I just want to know what's going on. I'm curious about 500 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,957 the the universe and 501 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:07,797 um that's my philosophy. 502 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:12,557 >> Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime? 503 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,437 >> Uh yeah. I mean I would say like I I you know, I There 504 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,197 >> That's a long commitment >> I've been asked uh but 505 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,397 >> Isn't that 3 years each way? 506 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,317 >> Uh it's uh 6 months. >> 6 months? That's all it is? 507 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,557 >> Yeah, 6 months but the planets only align every every 2 years. 508 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:30,597 >> Okay. >> So >> [clears throat] >> uh Yeah, I've been asked a few times like 509 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,677 do I want to you know, die on Mars and I'm like yes, 510 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,660 but just not on impact. >> [laughter] 511 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,277 >> That's a good that's a good answer. 512 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:47,877 Anyway, we're out of time. I Hopefully everybody enjoyed this. 513 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,717 I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. 514 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,557 I could tell you he's a great friend. 515 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,637 And I constantly learn so much from him. 516 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,597 And I'm totally inspired by what he's 517 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,517 what he has done. 518 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,677 I've been been inspired who he is. 519 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,317 And I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future. 520 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,877 And I don't think it's such a bad future. And I agree with his optimism. 521 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,397 So, Elon, thank you. Any last words? 522 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:21,277 >> Um Um Well, I think generally 523 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,437 I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and 524 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,917 excited about the future. >> Good. 525 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,317 >> Um and and and generally, I think for 526 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,597 quality of life, it is actually better 527 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,477 to err on the side of being an optimist 528 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,677 and wrong rather than a pessimist and right. 529 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,850 >> On that note >> [applause and cheering] 530 00:31:47,380 --> 00:31:49,400 [applause]