WEBVTT 00:00:12.520 --> 00:00:15.477 Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. 00:00:15.560 --> 00:00:18.477 It's great to have you here. Elon Musk: Thanks for having me. 00:00:18.560 --> 00:00:23.197 CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we're going to spend some time 00:00:23.280 --> 00:00:27.117 exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, 00:00:27.200 --> 00:00:32.997 which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring? 00:00:33.080 --> 00:00:35.870 EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:43.317 We're trying to dig a hole under LA, 00:00:43.400 --> 00:00:46.517 and this is to create the beginning 00:00:46.600 --> 00:00:50.720 of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:53.677 to alleviate congestion. 00:00:53.760 --> 00:00:59.237 So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. 00:00:59.320 --> 00:01:02.117 It affects people in every part of the world. 00:01:02.200 --> 00:01:05.957 It takes away so much of your life. 00:01:06.040 --> 00:01:09.597 It's horrible. It's particularly horrible in LA. 00:01:09.680 --> 00:01:14.237 (Laughter) CA: I think you've brought with you 00:01:14.320 --> 00:01:16.717 the first visualization that's been shown of this. 00:01:16.800 --> 00:01:20.797 Can I show this? EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- 00:01:20.880 --> 00:01:22.677 Just to show what we're talking about. 00:01:22.760 --> 00:01:28.757 So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. 00:01:28.840 --> 00:01:30.397 First of all, you have to be able 00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:32.677 to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel 00:01:32.760 --> 00:01:34.757 seamlessly into the fabric of the city. 00:01:34.840 --> 00:01:38.437 So by having an elevator, 00:01:38.520 --> 00:01:43.237 sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator, 00:01:43.320 --> 00:01:47.197 you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network 00:01:47.280 --> 00:01:49.520 just by using two parking spaces. 00:01:50.840 --> 00:01:52.877 And then the car gets on a skate. 00:01:52.960 --> 00:01:54.277 There's no speed limit here, 00:01:54.360 --> 00:01:59.317 so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour. 00:01:59.400 --> 00:02:03.960 CA: How much? EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. 00:02:04.800 --> 00:02:10.957 So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX 00:02:11.040 --> 00:02:13.237 in six minutes -- five, six minutes. 00:02:13.320 --> 00:02:19.197 (Applause) CA: So possibly, initially done, 00:02:19.280 --> 00:02:21.517 it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis. 00:02:21.600 --> 00:02:24.837 EM: Yeah. CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic 00:02:24.920 --> 00:02:26.557 from the surface streets as well. 00:02:26.640 --> 00:02:29.197 EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video, 00:02:29.280 --> 00:02:34.357 but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. 00:02:34.440 --> 00:02:37.197 You can go much further deep than you can go up. 00:02:37.280 --> 00:02:41.397 The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, 00:02:41.480 --> 00:02:46.677 so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion 00:02:46.760 --> 00:02:49.557 with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. 00:02:49.640 --> 00:02:55.957 So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, 00:02:56.040 --> 00:02:58.757 that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, 00:02:58.840 --> 00:03:02.077 and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion. 00:03:02.160 --> 00:03:05.877 But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels. 00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:09.437 CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig, 00:03:09.520 --> 00:03:11.237 and that would block this idea. 00:03:11.320 --> 00:03:14.197 EM: Yeah. Well, they're right. 00:03:14.280 --> 00:03:17.997 To give you an example, the LA subway extension, 00:03:18.080 --> 00:03:21.677 which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension 00:03:21.760 --> 00:03:23.937 that was just completed for two billion dollars. 00:03:24.020 --> 00:03:29.357 So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. 00:03:29.440 --> 00:03:33.357 And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. 00:03:33.440 --> 00:03:37.877 So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. 00:03:37.960 --> 00:03:41.077 I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement 00:03:41.160 --> 00:03:43.480 in the cost per mile of tunneling. 00:03:44.160 --> 00:03:45.910 CA: And how could you achieve that? 00:03:48.240 --> 00:03:50.237 EM: Actually, if you just do two things, 00:03:50.320 --> 00:03:53.597 you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:55.797 and I think you can go beyond that. 00:03:55.880 --> 00:04:00.077 So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter 00:04:00.160 --> 00:04:05.717 by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations 00:04:05.800 --> 00:04:08.597 has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:11.797 to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles 00:04:11.880 --> 00:04:16.077 and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. 00:04:16.160 --> 00:04:19.677 But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting, 00:04:19.760 --> 00:04:23.357 which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, 00:04:23.440 --> 00:04:26.597 you drop the diameter by a factor of two 00:04:26.680 --> 00:04:30.517 and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, 00:04:30.600 --> 00:04:33.397 and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area. 00:04:33.480 --> 00:04:36.637 So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. 00:04:36.720 --> 00:04:41.557 Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, 00:04:41.640 --> 00:04:46.077 and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. 00:04:46.160 --> 00:04:50.677 So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, 00:04:50.760 --> 00:04:52.917 that will give you a factor of two improvement. 00:04:53.000 --> 00:04:55.157 Combine that and that's a factor of eight. 00:04:55.240 --> 00:04:59.837 Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, 00:04:59.920 --> 00:05:02.917 so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. 00:05:03.000 --> 00:05:05.077 I think you can get at least a factor of two, 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:09.277 maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. 00:05:09.360 --> 00:05:13.517 So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps 00:05:13.600 --> 00:05:16.517 to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:21.237 in the cost per mile, and our target actually is -- 00:05:21.320 --> 00:05:26.637 we've got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," 00:05:26.720 --> 00:05:29.597 I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants." 00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:35.637 (Laughter) So Gary is capable of -- 00:05:35.720 --> 00:05:41.557 currently he's capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine. 00:05:41.640 --> 00:05:46.157 (Laughter) CA: You want to beat Gary. 00:05:46.240 --> 00:05:51.277 EM: We want to beat Gary. (Laughter) He's not a patient little fellow, 00:05:51.360 --> 00:05:55.880 and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail. 00:05:57.280 --> 00:06:00.277 CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, 00:06:00.360 --> 00:06:04.197 they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. 00:06:04.280 --> 00:06:08.277 You go aboveground. Why isn't that a better solution? 00:06:08.360 --> 00:06:10.277 You save all that tunneling cost. 00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:12.517 EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things. 00:06:12.600 --> 00:06:16.397 Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. 00:06:16.480 --> 00:06:19.357 This is not some inherent bias against flying things, 00:06:19.440 --> 00:06:25.757 but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they'll be quite noisy, 00:06:25.840 --> 00:06:28.400 the wind force generated will be very high. 00:06:32.000 --> 00:06:34.637 Let's just say that if something's flying over your head, 00:06:34.720 --> 00:06:37.420 a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, 00:06:38.440 --> 00:06:42.997 that is not an anxiety-reducing situation. 00:06:43.080 --> 00:06:44.400 (Laughter) 00:06:45.200 --> 00:06:48.760 You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." 00:06:50.520 --> 00:06:53.077 You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, 00:06:53.160 --> 00:06:55.997 or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" 00:06:56.080 --> 00:06:57.760 Things like that. 00:07:00.320 --> 00:07:01.837 CA: So you've got this vision 00:07:01.920 --> 00:07:07.157 of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. 00:07:07.240 --> 00:07:09.197 Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? 00:07:09.280 --> 00:07:12.757 Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea 00:07:12.840 --> 00:07:14.290 you released a few years ago. 00:07:14.840 --> 00:07:17.997 EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around 00:07:18.080 --> 00:07:20.637 with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. 00:07:20.720 --> 00:07:26.637 We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:29.677 to encourage innovative ideas in transport. 00:07:29.760 --> 00:07:34.717 And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world 00:07:34.800 --> 00:07:36.720 after the Large Hadron Collider, 00:07:37.800 --> 00:07:39.000 by volume. 00:07:41.320 --> 00:07:46.717 So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, 00:07:46.800 --> 00:07:50.437 and then we think we might -- 00:07:50.520 --> 00:07:54.880 so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods, 00:07:56.440 --> 00:08:00.317 but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go 00:08:00.400 --> 00:08:01.900 if it's not pushing something. 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:04.997 So we're cautiously optimistic 00:08:05.080 --> 00:08:10.037 we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train 00:08:10.120 --> 00:08:14.877 even in a.8-mile stretch. CA: Whoa. Good brakes. 00:08:14.960 --> 00:08:17.157 EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah. 00:08:17.240 --> 00:08:21.797 It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast. 00:08:21.880 --> 00:08:27.237 CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances. 00:08:27.320 --> 00:08:30.757 EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, 00:08:30.840 --> 00:08:34.600 it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- 00:08:36.320 --> 00:08:38.637 In order to seal against the water table, 00:08:38.720 --> 00:08:43.317 you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good 00:08:43.400 --> 00:08:45.720 to about five or six atmospheres. 00:08:47.160 --> 00:08:51.557 So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. 00:08:51.640 --> 00:08:55.997 So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, 00:08:56.080 --> 00:08:59.997 if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, 00:09:00.080 --> 00:09:02.437 it is automatically capable of holding vacuum. 00:09:02.520 --> 00:09:07.517 CA: Huh. EM: So, yeah. CA: And so you could actually picture, 00:09:07.600 --> 00:09:13.237 what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop? 00:09:13.320 --> 00:09:16.477 EM: I think there's no real length limit. 00:09:16.560 --> 00:09:19.517 You could dig as much as you want. 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:21.757 I think if you were to do something 00:09:21.840 --> 00:09:26.957 like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, 00:09:27.040 --> 00:09:29.837 I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way 00:09:29.920 --> 00:09:31.477 because it's a high-density area. 00:09:31.560 --> 00:09:37.117 You're going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, 00:09:37.200 --> 00:09:39.517 you cannot detect the tunnel. 00:09:39.600 --> 00:09:42.477 Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying 00:09:42.560 --> 00:09:44.357 to have a tunnel dug under my house. 00:09:44.440 --> 00:09:45.717 Like, if that tunnel is dug 00:09:45.800 --> 00:09:48.917 more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, 00:09:49.000 --> 00:09:51.880 you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. 00:09:52.880 --> 00:09:59.517 In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug, 00:09:59.600 --> 00:10:01.157 whatever device you are using, 00:10:01.240 --> 00:10:04.447 you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, 00:10:04.530 --> 00:10:07.330 who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, 00:10:07.640 --> 00:10:12.357 and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. 00:10:12.440 --> 00:10:15.597 So the reality is 00:10:15.680 --> 00:10:19.477 that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, 00:10:19.560 --> 00:10:24.477 and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. 00:10:24.560 --> 00:10:27.077 Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, 00:10:27.160 --> 00:10:28.710 you might be able to detect it. 00:10:29.280 --> 00:10:33.317 CA: So you've started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. 00:10:33.400 --> 00:10:38.197 Very nice. Very funny. (Laughter) EM: What's funny about that? 00:10:38.280 --> 00:10:42.840 (Laughter) CA: How much of your time is this? 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:46.720 EM: It's maybe... 00:10:47.680 --> 00:10:50.797 two or three percent. CA: You've called it a hobby. 00:10:50.880 --> 00:10:53.437 This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like. 00:10:53.520 --> 00:10:56.957 (Laughter) EM: I mean, it really is, like -- 00:10:57.040 --> 00:11:01.920 This is basically interns and people doing it part time. 00:11:03.320 --> 00:11:07.957 We bought some second-hand machinery. 00:11:08.040 --> 00:11:11.340 It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so -- 00:11:12.000 --> 00:11:13.837 CA: So an even bigger part of your time 00:11:13.920 --> 00:11:18.200 is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. 00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:21.957 Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project 00:11:22.040 --> 00:11:24.517 the realization that actually, 00:11:24.600 --> 00:11:27.957 in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving, 00:11:28.040 --> 00:11:31.517 there may end up being more cars on the roads 00:11:31.600 --> 00:11:33.917 on any given hour than there are now? 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:35.920 EM: Yeah, exactly. 00:11:38.040 --> 00:11:42.277 A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, 00:11:42.360 --> 00:11:46.917 they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. 00:11:47.000 --> 00:11:48.837 And to some degree that will be true, 00:11:48.920 --> 00:11:53.917 but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car 00:11:54.000 --> 00:11:55.500 and you can go point to point, 00:11:56.960 --> 00:12:02.037 the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. 00:12:02.120 --> 00:12:04.277 Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:09.357 So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, 00:12:09.440 --> 00:12:12.237 and actually traffic will get far worse. 00:12:12.320 --> 00:12:16.517 CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world 00:12:16.600 --> 00:12:19.677 that electrification was the future of cars, 00:12:19.760 --> 00:12:22.077 and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. 00:12:22.160 --> 00:12:27.757 Now, not so much. EM: OK. (Laughter) 00:12:27.840 --> 00:12:29.997 I don't know. I don't know. 00:12:30.080 --> 00:12:33.437 CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer 00:12:33.520 --> 00:12:36.477 has announced serious electrification plans 00:12:36.560 --> 00:12:39.200 for the short- to medium-term future? 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:41.200 EM: Yeah. Yeah. 00:12:43.280 --> 00:12:48.197 I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. 00:12:48.280 --> 00:12:49.477 They vary in seriousness. 00:12:49.560 --> 00:12:53.797 Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, 00:12:53.880 --> 00:12:56.240 and some are just dabbling in it. 00:12:57.280 --> 00:12:59.637 And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, 00:12:59.720 --> 00:13:01.797 but I think that won't last much longer. 00:13:01.880 --> 00:13:03.877 CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon, 00:13:03.960 --> 00:13:07.597 where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." 00:13:07.680 --> 00:13:11.760 Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff? 00:13:13.520 --> 00:13:14.720 EM: Yeah. 00:13:16.320 --> 00:13:20.837 I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, 00:13:20.920 --> 00:13:25.517 and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:27.717 Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. 00:13:27.800 --> 00:13:31.200 We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck. 00:13:32.120 --> 00:13:33.997 CA: OK, we're going to come to this. 00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:38.997 So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish. 00:13:39.080 --> 00:13:43.557 EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July. 00:13:43.640 --> 00:13:47.357 CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about 00:13:47.440 --> 00:13:50.597 is the fact that it's got autopilot. 00:13:50.680 --> 00:13:52.957 And you put out this video a while back 00:13:53.040 --> 00:13:58.317 showing what that technology would look like. 00:13:58.400 --> 00:14:02.087 EM: Yeah. CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now. 00:14:02.170 --> 00:14:03.477 What are we seeing here? 00:14:03.560 --> 00:14:09.517 EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. 00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:12.037 So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. 00:14:12.120 --> 00:14:16.160 This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. 00:14:17.200 --> 00:14:19.637 The whole road system is meant to be navigated 00:14:19.720 --> 00:14:23.717 with passive optical, or cameras, 00:14:23.800 --> 00:14:28.400 and so once you solve cameras or vision, 00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:33.520 then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. 00:14:34.120 --> 00:14:40.077 So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net 00:14:40.160 --> 00:14:43.317 that's very effective for road conditions. 00:14:43.400 --> 00:14:45.957 CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. 00:14:46.040 --> 00:14:48.837 You want cameras plus radar is most of it. 00:14:48.920 --> 00:14:52.237 EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. 00:14:52.320 --> 00:14:56.557 Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras. 00:14:56.640 --> 00:15:01.037 CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. 00:15:01.120 --> 00:15:05.397 They can't yet do what that showed. 00:15:05.480 --> 00:15:07.120 When will they be able to? 00:15:08.440 --> 00:15:14.117 EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country 00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:18.317 from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous. 00:15:18.400 --> 00:15:22.117 CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying, 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:26.117 someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:28.637 tap in "New York," off it goes. 00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:33.160 EM: Yeah. CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017. 00:15:34.280 --> 00:15:38.837 EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, 00:15:38.920 --> 00:15:43.277 we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California 00:15:43.360 --> 00:15:44.957 to a parking lot in New York, 00:15:45.040 --> 00:15:47.990 no controls touched at any point during the entire journey. 00:15:48.800 --> 00:15:53.437 (Applause) CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible 00:15:53.520 --> 00:15:56.877 because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. 00:15:56.960 --> 00:16:01.760 You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system. 00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:06.037 EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting 00:16:06.120 --> 00:16:11.200 is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route 00:16:12.960 --> 00:16:16.200 even if you change the route dynamically. 00:16:16.840 --> 00:16:19.240 So, it's fairly easy -- 00:16:20.040 --> 00:16:23.717 If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing, 00:16:23.800 --> 00:16:28.877 but it should be able to go, really be very good, 00:16:28.960 --> 00:16:33.437 certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system 00:16:33.520 --> 00:16:34.760 in a given country. 00:16:36.040 --> 00:16:38.277 So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York. 00:16:38.360 --> 00:16:44.317 We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. 00:16:44.400 --> 00:16:46.477 So you were going from LA to New York. 00:16:46.560 --> 00:16:49.280 Now go from LA to Toronto. 00:16:50.320 --> 00:16:55.797 CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, 00:16:55.880 --> 00:16:59.637 the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars 00:16:59.720 --> 00:17:03.477 and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep 00:17:03.560 --> 00:17:07.517 and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely? 00:17:07.600 --> 00:17:09.797 EM: I think that's about two years. 00:17:09.880 --> 00:17:16.157 So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, 00:17:16.240 --> 00:17:20.277 because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, 00:17:20.360 --> 00:17:24.340 then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. 00:17:27.520 --> 00:17:30.540 You shouldn't be, certainly. (Laughter) 00:17:32.040 --> 00:17:34.877 It's never going to be perfect. 00:17:34.960 --> 00:17:38.320 No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhaps -- 00:17:40.520 --> 00:17:46.357 the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:50.277 then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, 00:17:50.360 --> 00:17:54.317 I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that's probably OK. 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:58.437 CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually 00:17:58.520 --> 00:18:00.747 get seduced too early to think that this is safe, 00:18:00.830 --> 00:18:05.317 and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back. 00:18:05.400 --> 00:18:11.357 EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:12.920 except in rare circumstances. 00:18:14.280 --> 00:18:20.000 The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. 00:18:20.920 --> 00:18:24.317 I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:27.277 that they will have an accident that is their fault. 00:18:27.360 --> 00:18:28.680 It's never zero. 00:18:29.440 --> 00:18:33.757 So really the key threshold for autonomy 00:18:33.840 --> 00:18:38.197 is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person 00:18:38.280 --> 00:18:43.037 before you can rely on it? CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, 00:18:43.120 --> 00:18:45.877 the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, 00:18:45.960 --> 00:18:50.277 because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car, 00:18:50.360 --> 00:18:52.437 drops you off at work, and then you let it go 00:18:52.520 --> 00:18:57.677 and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, 00:18:57.760 --> 00:19:00.157 maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, 00:19:00.240 --> 00:19:02.037 so you can kind of get a car for free. 00:19:02.120 --> 00:19:06.197 Is that really likely? EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. 00:19:06.280 --> 00:19:09.477 So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car 00:19:09.560 --> 00:19:12.917 and you can choose to use that car exclusively, 00:19:13.000 --> 00:19:16.637 you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, 00:19:16.720 --> 00:19:21.717 only by other drivers who are rated five star, 00:19:21.800 --> 00:19:26.680 you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. 00:19:28.120 --> 00:19:31.357 That's 100 percent what will occur. 00:19:31.440 --> 00:19:32.890 It's just a question of when. 00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:37.357 CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:40.117 and I think you're planning to announce this in September, 00:19:40.200 --> 00:19:43.237 but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today? 00:19:43.320 --> 00:19:47.117 EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck. 00:19:47.200 --> 00:19:52.837 (Laughter) It's alive. CA: OK. 00:19:52.920 --> 00:19:55.557 EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious 00:19:55.640 --> 00:19:57.040 about the autonomy features. 00:19:58.360 --> 00:20:02.797 Yeah. (Laughter) CA: We can't see that much of it, 00:20:02.880 --> 00:20:06.037 but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. 00:20:06.120 --> 00:20:10.560 It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this? 00:20:11.160 --> 00:20:15.677 EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. 00:20:15.760 --> 00:20:19.957 So it's the highest weight capability 00:20:20.040 --> 00:20:23.037 and with long range. 00:20:23.120 --> 00:20:28.560 So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. 00:20:29.280 --> 00:20:34.517 And this is something which people do not today think is possible. 00:20:34.600 --> 00:20:38.277 They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range, 00:20:38.360 --> 00:20:43.517 and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck 00:20:43.600 --> 00:20:49.557 actually can out-torque any diesel semi. 00:20:49.640 --> 00:20:53.717 And if you had a tug-of-war competition, 00:20:53.800 --> 00:20:58.797 the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill. 00:20:58.880 --> 00:21:02.957 (Laughter) (Applause) 00:21:03.040 --> 00:21:05.997 CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless. 00:21:06.080 --> 00:21:09.400 These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive. 00:21:10.480 --> 00:21:13.037 EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this 00:21:13.120 --> 00:21:18.437 is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, 00:21:18.520 --> 00:21:21.957 whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, 00:21:22.040 --> 00:21:24.690 you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. 00:21:25.840 --> 00:21:28.717 So this will be a very spry truck. 00:21:28.800 --> 00:21:31.597 You can drive this around like a sports car. 00:21:31.680 --> 00:21:33.997 There's no gears. It's, like, single speed. 00:21:34.080 --> 00:21:36.477 CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere. 00:21:36.560 --> 00:21:40.517 I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well, but it's a great movie. 00:21:40.600 --> 00:21:44.317 (Laughter) EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving. 00:21:44.400 --> 00:21:48.357 When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. 00:21:48.440 --> 00:21:50.637 It's really weird, because you're driving around 00:21:50.720 --> 00:21:53.757 and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck. 00:21:53.840 --> 00:21:57.277 CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype? 00:21:57.360 --> 00:22:00.877 EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy. 00:22:00.960 --> 00:22:03.077 CA: Wow. This is no vaporware. 00:22:03.160 --> 00:22:07.197 EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers. 00:22:07.280 --> 00:22:12.317 CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. 00:22:12.400 --> 00:22:15.677 This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. 00:22:15.760 --> 00:22:18.757 What on earth is going on here? 00:22:18.840 --> 00:22:21.237 EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future 00:22:21.320 --> 00:22:24.237 that I think is how things will evolve. 00:22:24.320 --> 00:22:26.597 You've got an electric car in the driveway. 00:22:26.680 --> 00:22:30.357 If you look in between the electric car and the house, 00:22:30.440 --> 00:22:34.237 there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, 00:22:34.320 --> 00:22:37.077 and then that house roof is a solar roof. 00:22:37.160 --> 00:22:39.197 So that's an actual solar glass roof. 00:22:39.280 --> 00:22:44.717 CA: OK. EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house. 00:22:44.800 --> 00:22:51.397 That's a real fake house. (Laughter) CA: So these roof tiles, 00:22:51.480 --> 00:22:57.557 some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to -- 00:22:57.640 --> 00:23:04.397 EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color 00:23:04.480 --> 00:23:06.397 to a very fine-grained level, 00:23:06.480 --> 00:23:11.997 and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass, 00:23:12.080 --> 00:23:15.477 such that when you're looking at the roof from street level 00:23:15.560 --> 00:23:19.597 or close to street level, all the tiles look the same 00:23:19.680 --> 00:23:24.760 whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. 00:23:26.000 --> 00:23:32.877 So you have an even color from the ground level. 00:23:32.960 --> 00:23:34.997 If you were to look at it from a helicopter, 00:23:35.080 --> 00:23:37.397 you would be actually able to look through and see 00:23:37.480 --> 00:23:41.437 that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. 00:23:41.520 --> 00:23:43.077 You can't tell from street level. 00:23:43.160 --> 00:23:46.157 CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, 00:23:46.240 --> 00:23:48.557 and that makes these roofs super affordable, right? 00:23:48.640 --> 00:23:51.557 They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof. 00:23:51.640 --> 00:23:52.840 EM: Yeah. 00:23:53.840 --> 00:23:56.440 We're very confident that the cost of the roof 00:23:57.840 --> 00:23:59.760 plus the cost of electricity -- 00:24:01.920 --> 00:24:04.797 A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof 00:24:04.880 --> 00:24:07.517 plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, 00:24:07.600 --> 00:24:13.597 this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, 00:24:13.680 --> 00:24:18.837 and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, 00:24:18.920 --> 00:24:22.677 but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, 00:24:22.760 --> 00:24:28.317 but actually this is toughened glass. 00:24:28.400 --> 00:24:33.157 Well after the house has collapsed and there's nothing there, 00:24:33.240 --> 00:24:36.717 the glass tiles will still be there. 00:24:36.800 --> 00:24:40.077 (Applause) CA: I mean, this is cool. 00:24:40.160 --> 00:24:42.957 So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think, 00:24:43.040 --> 00:24:45.517 with four different roofing types. 00:24:45.600 --> 00:24:48.077 EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially, 00:24:48.160 --> 00:24:51.277 and the second two will be introduced early next year. 00:24:51.360 --> 00:24:53.357 CA: And what's the scale of ambition here? 00:24:53.440 --> 00:24:58.960 How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing? 00:24:59.760 --> 00:25:01.160 EM: I think eventually 00:25:02.560 --> 00:25:06.200 almost all houses will have a solar roof. 00:25:07.880 --> 00:25:13.837 The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order 00:25:13.920 --> 00:25:17.037 of 40 or 50 years. 00:25:17.120 --> 00:25:22.000 So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. 00:25:23.400 --> 00:25:26.677 But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately. 00:25:26.760 --> 00:25:33.517 But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, 00:25:33.600 --> 00:25:37.200 it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar. 00:25:37.840 --> 00:25:40.637 CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here 00:25:40.720 --> 00:25:45.077 that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, 00:25:45.160 --> 00:25:49.197 most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof 00:25:49.280 --> 00:25:51.277 pretty much to power all of their needs. 00:25:51.360 --> 00:25:55.277 If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. 00:25:55.360 --> 00:25:56.837 You could go off-grid, kind of. 00:25:56.920 --> 00:25:58.397 EM: It depends on where you are 00:25:58.480 --> 00:26:01.677 and what the house size is relative to the roof area, 00:26:01.760 --> 00:26:08.397 but it's a fair statement to say that most houses in the US have enough roof area 00:26:08.480 --> 00:26:10.440 to power all the needs of the house. 00:26:11.800 --> 00:26:14.917 CA: So the key to the economics 00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:18.957 of the cars, the Semi, of these houses 00:26:19.040 --> 00:26:22.877 is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, 00:26:22.960 --> 00:26:25.397 which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla. 00:26:25.480 --> 00:26:27.677 In many ways, that's almost the core competency. 00:26:27.760 --> 00:26:29.957 And you've decided 00:26:30.040 --> 00:26:35.197 that to really, like, own that competency, 00:26:35.280 --> 00:26:38.677 you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant 00:26:38.760 --> 00:26:41.837 to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries, 00:26:41.920 --> 00:26:47.637 with this guy. What is this? EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory, 00:26:47.720 --> 00:26:50.357 progress so far on the Gigafactory. 00:26:50.440 --> 00:26:52.277 Eventually, you can sort of roughly see 00:26:52.360 --> 00:26:55.237 that there's sort of a diamond shape overall, 00:26:55.320 --> 00:26:59.877 and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond, 00:26:59.960 --> 00:27:03.637 or that's the idea behind it, and it's aligned on true north. 00:27:03.720 --> 00:27:09.317 It's a small detail. CA: And capable of producing, eventually, 00:27:09.400 --> 00:27:12.517 like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year. 00:27:12.600 --> 00:27:15.517 EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah. 00:27:15.600 --> 00:27:17.917 CA: And they're actually being produced right now. 00:27:18.000 --> 00:27:21.117 EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. 00:27:21.200 --> 00:27:24.197 I mean, is that speeded up? EM: That's the slowed down version. 00:27:24.280 --> 00:27:28.357 (Laughter) CA: How fast does it actually go? 00:27:28.440 --> 00:27:31.197 EM: Well, when it's running at full speed, 00:27:31.280 --> 00:27:35.157 you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light. 00:27:35.240 --> 00:27:39.880 It's just blur. (Laughter) 00:27:40.000 --> 00:27:43.517 CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future 00:27:43.600 --> 00:27:46.400 is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. 00:27:47.480 --> 00:27:48.837 Help us picture this. 00:27:48.920 --> 00:27:53.877 How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there? 00:27:53.960 --> 00:27:55.637 EM: It's about a hundred, roughly. 00:27:55.720 --> 00:27:57.397 It's not 10, it's not a thousand. 00:27:57.480 --> 00:27:58.840 Most likely a hundred. 00:28:00.040 --> 00:28:05.637 CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take 00:28:05.720 --> 00:28:08.917 to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. 00:28:09.000 --> 00:28:14.397 It's like you're building one, it costs five billion dollars, 00:28:14.480 --> 00:28:16.557 or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. 00:28:16.640 --> 00:28:20.197 Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project. 00:28:20.280 --> 00:28:24.760 And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year. 00:28:25.480 --> 00:28:28.277 EM: I think we'll announce locations 00:28:28.360 --> 00:28:32.037 for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. 00:28:32.120 --> 00:28:35.597 Yeah, probably four. CA: Whoa. 00:28:35.680 --> 00:28:42.317 (Applause) No more teasing from you for here? 00:28:42.400 --> 00:28:45.200 Like -- where, continent? 00:28:47.480 --> 00:28:48.680 You can say no. 00:28:49.440 --> 00:28:53.157 EM: We need to address a global market. 00:28:53.240 --> 00:28:57.040 CA: OK. (Laughter) This is cool. 00:28:59.480 --> 00:29:03.720 I think we should talk for -- 00:29:04.560 --> 00:29:10.237 Actually, global market. I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one. 00:29:10.320 --> 00:29:13.517 I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. 00:29:13.600 --> 00:29:19.877 You're on a body now giving advice to a guy -- 00:29:19.960 --> 00:29:24.037 EM: Who? CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change, 00:29:24.120 --> 00:29:28.397 and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that. 00:29:28.480 --> 00:29:30.317 They'd like you to walk away from that. 00:29:30.400 --> 00:29:31.760 What would you say to them? 00:29:32.720 --> 00:29:38.837 EM: Well, I think that first of all, I'm just on two advisory councils 00:29:38.920 --> 00:29:41.677 where the format consists of going around the room 00:29:41.760 --> 00:29:44.597 and asking people's opinion on things, 00:29:44.680 --> 00:29:48.440 and so there's like a meeting every month or two. 00:29:49.560 --> 00:29:52.717 That's the sum total of my contribution. 00:29:52.800 --> 00:29:55.517 But I think to the degree that there are people in the room 00:29:55.600 --> 00:30:00.277 who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, 00:30:00.360 --> 00:30:04.360 or social issues, 00:30:06.520 --> 00:30:09.677 I've used the meetings I've had thus far 00:30:09.760 --> 00:30:14.557 to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change. 00:30:14.640 --> 00:30:21.477 (Applause) And if I hadn't done that, that wasn't on the agenda before. 00:30:21.560 --> 00:30:25.800 So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said. 00:30:26.680 --> 00:30:30.800 CA: OK. (Applause) 00:30:31.800 --> 00:30:35.277 So let's talk SpaceX and Mars. 00:30:35.360 --> 00:30:36.757 Last time you were here, 00:30:36.840 --> 00:30:40.477 you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream 00:30:40.560 --> 00:30:44.797 to develop rockets that were actually reusable. 00:30:44.880 --> 00:30:46.957 And you've only gone and done it. 00:30:47.040 --> 00:30:48.597 EM: Finally. It took a long time. 00:30:48.680 --> 00:30:51.197 CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here? 00:30:51.280 --> 00:30:53.357 EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters 00:30:53.440 --> 00:30:57.957 coming back from very high and fast in space. 00:30:58.040 --> 00:31:03.357 So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. 00:31:03.440 --> 00:31:09.280 I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage. 00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:12.880 (Applause) 00:31:13.840 --> 00:31:17.117 CA: So that was a sped-up -- EM: That was the slowed down version. 00:31:17.200 --> 00:31:20.997 (Laughter) CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. 00:31:21.080 --> 00:31:23.717 But I mean, that's amazing, and several of these failed 00:31:23.800 --> 00:31:26.677 before you finally figured out how to do it, 00:31:26.760 --> 00:31:29.597 but now you've done this, what, five or six times? 00:31:29.680 --> 00:31:33.557 EM: We're at eight or nine. CA: And for the first time, 00:31:33.640 --> 00:31:36.717 you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed. 00:31:36.800 --> 00:31:39.517 EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster 00:31:39.600 --> 00:31:42.157 and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, 00:31:42.240 --> 00:31:47.357 so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster 00:31:47.440 --> 00:31:49.357 where that reflight is relevant. 00:31:49.440 --> 00:31:52.557 So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant 00:31:52.640 --> 00:31:56.720 if it is rapid and complete. 00:31:57.400 --> 00:32:02.997 So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. 00:32:03.080 --> 00:32:08.077 You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights. 00:32:08.160 --> 00:32:12.917 CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea 00:32:13.000 --> 00:32:18.557 of sending many, many, many people to Mars in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess. 00:32:18.640 --> 00:32:23.397 EM: Yeah. CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it. 00:32:23.480 --> 00:32:25.837 Help us understand the scale of this thing. 00:32:25.920 --> 00:32:30.800 EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person. 00:32:32.680 --> 00:32:37.877 Yeah, and that's the vehicle. (Laughter) CA: So if that was a skyscraper, 00:32:37.960 --> 00:32:41.237 that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper? 00:32:41.320 --> 00:32:42.970 EM: Probably a little more, yeah. 00:32:44.360 --> 00:32:48.360 The thrust level of this is really -- 00:32:50.360 --> 00:32:55.280 This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket. 00:32:56.440 --> 00:33:01.237 CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before. 00:33:01.320 --> 00:33:02.520 EM: Yeah. Yeah. 00:33:04.640 --> 00:33:09.037 CA: As one does. EM: Yeah. (Laughter) 00:33:09.120 --> 00:33:15.037 In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, 00:33:15.120 --> 00:33:19.877 so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there's 40 747s. 00:33:19.960 --> 00:33:26.157 So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing. 00:33:26.240 --> 00:33:30.397 CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity, 00:33:30.480 --> 00:33:35.117 I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, 00:33:35.200 --> 00:33:38.757 people, cargo, everything, into orbit. 00:33:38.840 --> 00:33:43.917 EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, 00:33:44.000 --> 00:33:50.760 maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo. 00:33:52.080 --> 00:33:53.757 CA: So based on this, 00:33:53.840 --> 00:33:58.597 you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System 00:33:58.680 --> 00:34:01.997 which is visualized this way. 00:34:02.080 --> 00:34:06.160 This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? 00:34:06.880 --> 00:34:09.397 People walking into this rocket. 00:34:09.480 --> 00:34:13.997 EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. 00:34:14.080 --> 00:34:16.397 Aspirationally, that's our target. 00:34:16.480 --> 00:34:21.680 Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think -- (Laughter) 00:34:23.600 --> 00:34:26.917 CA: OK. EM: While vehicle seems quite large 00:34:27.000 --> 00:34:33.117 and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft 00:34:33.200 --> 00:34:37.040 will make this look like a rowboat. 00:34:38.320 --> 00:34:42.957 The future spaceships will be truly enormous. 00:34:43.040 --> 00:34:49.317 CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars 00:34:49.400 --> 00:34:52.397 with a million people on it in your lifetime, 00:34:52.480 --> 00:34:55.480 which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do? 00:34:56.480 --> 00:34:59.240 EM: I think it's important to have 00:35:01.120 --> 00:35:03.797 a future that is inspiring and appealing. 00:35:03.880 --> 00:35:06.597 I just think there have to be reasons 00:35:06.680 --> 00:35:09.557 that you get up in the morning and you want to live. 00:35:09.640 --> 00:35:11.037 Like, why do you want to live? 00:35:11.120 --> 00:35:12.797 What's the point? What inspires you? 00:35:12.880 --> 00:35:14.677 What do you love about the future? 00:35:14.760 --> 00:35:16.197 And if we're not out there, 00:35:16.280 --> 00:35:20.237 if the future does not include being out there among the stars 00:35:20.320 --> 00:35:24.477 and being a multiplanet species, I find that it's incredibly depressing 00:35:24.560 --> 00:35:27.837 if that's not the future that we're going to have. 00:35:27.920 --> 00:35:34.397 (Applause) CA: People want to position this as an either or, 00:35:34.480 --> 00:35:38.117 that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now 00:35:38.200 --> 00:35:41.640 from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. 00:35:42.480 --> 00:35:44.957 And this feels like a distraction. 00:35:45.040 --> 00:35:46.797 You shouldn't be thinking about this. 00:35:46.880 --> 00:35:48.997 You should be solving what's here and now. 00:35:49.080 --> 00:35:51.957 And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that 00:35:52.040 --> 00:35:54.797 with your work on sustainable energy. 00:35:54.880 --> 00:35:56.920 But why not just do that? 00:35:59.360 --> 00:36:01.440 EM: I think there's -- 00:36:04.840 --> 00:36:09.197 I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. 00:36:09.280 --> 00:36:13.397 It's like a branching stream of probabilities, 00:36:13.480 --> 00:36:18.480 and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities 00:36:19.920 --> 00:36:23.120 or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. 00:36:24.000 --> 00:36:28.120 I may introduce something new to the probability stream. 00:36:30.840 --> 00:36:32.957 Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. 00:36:33.040 --> 00:36:35.477 If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, 00:36:35.560 --> 00:36:38.357 it would have to happen out of necessity. 00:36:38.440 --> 00:36:39.957 It's tautological. 00:36:40.040 --> 00:36:43.637 If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. 00:36:43.720 --> 00:36:45.277 Eventually you will run out, 00:36:45.360 --> 00:36:51.117 and the laws of economics will drive civilization 00:36:51.200 --> 00:36:54.037 towards sustainable energy, inevitably. 00:36:54.120 --> 00:36:57.037 The fundamental value of a company like Tesla 00:36:57.120 --> 00:37:01.477 is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, 00:37:01.560 --> 00:37:03.410 faster than it would otherwise occur. 00:37:05.120 --> 00:37:09.037 So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, 00:37:09.120 --> 00:37:10.757 I would say, hopefully, 00:37:10.840 --> 00:37:16.397 if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, 00:37:16.480 --> 00:37:18.557 that would be quite a good thing to occur. 00:37:18.640 --> 00:37:24.360 That's what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla. 00:37:25.480 --> 00:37:31.757 Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. 00:37:31.840 --> 00:37:33.717 This is not inevitable. 00:37:33.800 --> 00:37:36.437 It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. 00:37:36.520 --> 00:37:39.557 The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, 00:37:39.640 --> 00:37:44.317 but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. 00:37:44.400 --> 00:37:48.517 If you look at the progress in space, 00:37:48.600 --> 00:37:51.200 in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 00:37:52.040 --> 00:37:53.240 1969. 00:37:54.840 --> 00:37:57.677 Then we had the Space Shuttle. 00:37:57.760 --> 00:38:01.117 The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. 00:38:01.200 --> 00:38:05.250 Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. 00:38:06.320 --> 00:38:10.280 So that's the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. 00:38:11.560 --> 00:38:15.997 People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. 00:38:16.080 --> 00:38:17.917 It does not automatically improve. 00:38:18.000 --> 00:38:22.597 It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, 00:38:22.680 --> 00:38:28.397 and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. 00:38:28.480 --> 00:38:30.837 You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, 00:38:30.920 --> 00:38:34.637 and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. 00:38:34.720 --> 00:38:37.477 And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. 00:38:37.560 --> 00:38:38.810 They forgot how to do it. 00:38:40.720 --> 00:38:42.717 CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you 00:38:42.800 --> 00:38:44.997 and looking at the different things you've done, 00:38:45.080 --> 00:38:47.797 that you've got this unique double motivation on everything 00:38:47.880 --> 00:38:49.230 that I find so interesting. 00:38:51.720 --> 00:38:56.237 One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good. 00:38:56.320 --> 00:38:58.597 The other is the desire to do something exciting. 00:38:58.680 --> 00:39:03.317 And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. 00:39:03.400 --> 00:39:06.437 With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, 00:39:06.520 --> 00:39:10.997 so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. 00:39:11.080 --> 00:39:14.697 Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. 00:39:14.780 --> 00:39:18.477 We haven't even spoken about your newest thing, which we don't have time to do, 00:39:18.560 --> 00:39:20.837 but you want to save humanity from bad AI, 00:39:20.920 --> 00:39:24.157 and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface 00:39:24.240 --> 00:39:28.037 to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. 00:39:28.120 --> 00:39:34.477 And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity 00:39:34.560 --> 00:39:39.157 and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, 00:39:39.240 --> 00:39:43.760 and this is a way to inspire. 00:39:45.680 --> 00:39:51.397 EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, 00:39:51.480 --> 00:39:54.277 no question. But I want to be clear. 00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:56.117 I'm not trying to be anyone's savior. 00:39:56.200 --> 00:39:57.400 That is not the -- 00:39:58.240 --> 00:40:03.240 I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad. 00:40:04.400 --> 00:40:07.720 (Applause) CA: Beautiful statement. 00:40:10.200 --> 00:40:13.000 I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- 00:40:13.800 --> 00:40:15.797 None of this is going to happen inevitably. 00:40:15.880 --> 00:40:19.477 The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, 00:40:19.560 --> 00:40:22.077 you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, 00:40:22.160 --> 00:40:24.757 or no one else would be capable of dreaming 00:40:24.840 --> 00:40:28.437 at the level of complexity that you do. 00:40:28.520 --> 00:40:31.637 The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. 00:40:31.720 --> 00:40:34.357 Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger. 00:40:34.440 --> 00:40:37.877 EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right? 00:40:37.960 --> 00:40:43.517 (Laughter) CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. 00:40:43.600 --> 00:40:49.120 That was really fantastic. (Applause)