1 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:15,477 Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. 2 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,477 It's great to have you here. Elon Musk: Thanks for having me. 3 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:23,197 CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we're going to spend some time 4 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:27,117 exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, 5 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:32,997 which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring? 6 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,870 EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. 7 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:43,317 We're trying to dig a hole under LA, 8 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,517 and this is to create the beginning 9 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,720 of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels 10 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,677 to alleviate congestion. 11 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:59,237 So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. 12 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,117 It affects people in every part of the world. 13 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,957 It takes away so much of your life. 14 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,597 It's horrible. It's particularly horrible in LA. 15 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:14,237 (Laughter) CA: I think you've brought with you 16 00:01:14,320 --> 00:01:16,717 the first visualization that's been shown of this. 17 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,797 Can I show this? EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- 18 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:22,677 Just to show what we're talking about. 19 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:28,757 So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. 20 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:30,397 First of all, you have to be able 21 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,677 to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel 22 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,757 seamlessly into the fabric of the city. 23 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,437 So by having an elevator, 24 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:43,237 sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator, 25 00:01:43,320 --> 00:01:47,197 you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network 26 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,520 just by using two parking spaces. 27 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:52,877 And then the car gets on a skate. 28 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:54,277 There's no speed limit here, 29 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,317 so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour. 30 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,960 CA: How much? EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. 31 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:10,957 So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX 32 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,237 in six minutes -- five, six minutes. 33 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:19,197 (Applause) CA: So possibly, initially done, 34 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,517 it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis. 35 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,837 EM: Yeah. CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic 36 00:02:24,920 --> 00:02:26,557 from the surface streets as well. 37 00:02:26,640 --> 00:02:29,197 EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video, 38 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:34,357 but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. 39 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,197 You can go much further deep than you can go up. 40 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,397 The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, 41 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:46,677 so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion 42 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,557 with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. 43 00:02:49,640 --> 00:02:55,957 So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, 44 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,757 that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, 45 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,077 and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion. 46 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,877 But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels. 47 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,437 CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig, 48 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,237 and that would block this idea. 49 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,197 EM: Yeah. Well, they're right. 50 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,997 To give you an example, the LA subway extension, 51 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,677 which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension 52 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,937 that was just completed for two billion dollars. 53 00:03:24,020 --> 00:03:29,357 So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. 54 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,357 And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. 55 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:37,877 So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. 56 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,077 I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement 57 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,480 in the cost per mile of tunneling. 58 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:45,910 CA: And how could you achieve that? 59 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,237 EM: Actually, if you just do two things, 60 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,597 you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, 61 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:55,797 and I think you can go beyond that. 62 00:03:55,880 --> 00:04:00,077 So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter 63 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:05,717 by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations 64 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,597 has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter 65 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,797 to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles 66 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:16,077 and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. 67 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,677 But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting, 68 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,357 which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, 69 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,597 you drop the diameter by a factor of two 70 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,517 and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, 71 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,397 and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area. 72 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,637 So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. 73 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:41,557 Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, 74 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:46,077 and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. 75 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:50,677 So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, 76 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:52,917 that will give you a factor of two improvement. 77 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,157 Combine that and that's a factor of eight. 78 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,837 Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, 79 00:04:59,920 --> 00:05:02,917 so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. 80 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,077 I think you can get at least a factor of two, 81 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,277 maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. 82 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,517 So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps 83 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,517 to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement 84 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:21,237 in the cost per mile, and our target actually is -- 85 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:26,637 we've got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," 86 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,597 I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants." 87 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:35,637 (Laughter) So Gary is capable of -- 88 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:41,557 currently he's capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine. 89 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:46,157 (Laughter) CA: You want to beat Gary. 90 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:51,277 EM: We want to beat Gary. (Laughter) He's not a patient little fellow, 91 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:55,880 and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail. 92 00:05:57,280 --> 00:06:00,277 CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, 93 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,197 they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. 94 00:06:04,280 --> 00:06:08,277 You go aboveground. Why isn't that a better solution? 95 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,277 You save all that tunneling cost. 96 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,517 EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things. 97 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,397 Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. 98 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,357 This is not some inherent bias against flying things, 99 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:25,757 but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they'll be quite noisy, 100 00:06:25,840 --> 00:06:28,400 the wind force generated will be very high. 101 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,637 Let's just say that if something's flying over your head, 102 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,420 a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, 103 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,997 that is not an anxiety-reducing situation. 104 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:44,400 (Laughter) 105 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,760 You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." 106 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,077 You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, 107 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,997 or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" 108 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:57,760 Things like that. 109 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:01,837 CA: So you've got this vision 110 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:07,157 of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. 111 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,197 Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? 112 00:07:09,280 --> 00:07:12,757 Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea 113 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,290 you released a few years ago. 114 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,997 EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around 115 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,637 with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. 116 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:26,637 We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, 117 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,677 to encourage innovative ideas in transport. 118 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:34,717 And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world 119 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:36,720 after the Large Hadron Collider, 120 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:39,000 by volume. 121 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:46,717 So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, 122 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,437 and then we think we might -- 123 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,880 so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods, 124 00:07:56,440 --> 00:08:00,317 but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go 125 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:01,900 if it's not pushing something. 126 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,997 So we're cautiously optimistic 127 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:10,037 we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train 128 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:14,877 even in a.8-mile stretch. CA: Whoa. Good brakes. 129 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,157 EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah. 130 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,797 It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast. 131 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:27,237 CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances. 132 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,757 EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, 133 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,600 it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- 134 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:38,637 In order to seal against the water table, 135 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:43,317 you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good 136 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,720 to about five or six atmospheres. 137 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:51,557 So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. 138 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,997 So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, 139 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,997 if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, 140 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,437 it is automatically capable of holding vacuum. 141 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:07,517 CA: Huh. EM: So, yeah. CA: And so you could actually picture, 142 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:13,237 what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop? 143 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,477 EM: I think there's no real length limit. 144 00:09:16,560 --> 00:09:19,517 You could dig as much as you want. 145 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:21,757 I think if you were to do something 146 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:26,957 like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, 147 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,837 I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way 148 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:31,477 because it's a high-density area. 149 00:09:31,560 --> 00:09:37,117 You're going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, 150 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,517 you cannot detect the tunnel. 151 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,477 Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying 152 00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:44,357 to have a tunnel dug under my house. 153 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:45,717 Like, if that tunnel is dug 154 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,917 more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, 155 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,880 you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. 156 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:59,517 In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug, 157 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,157 whatever device you are using, 158 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,447 you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, 159 00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:07,330 who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, 160 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:12,357 and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. 161 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,597 So the reality is 162 00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:19,477 that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, 163 00:10:19,560 --> 00:10:24,477 and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. 164 00:10:24,560 --> 00:10:27,077 Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, 165 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:28,710 you might be able to detect it. 166 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,317 CA: So you've started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. 167 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:38,197 Very nice. Very funny. (Laughter) EM: What's funny about that? 168 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:42,840 (Laughter) CA: How much of your time is this? 169 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,720 EM: It's maybe... 170 00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:50,797 two or three percent. CA: You've called it a hobby. 171 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,437 This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like. 172 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,957 (Laughter) EM: I mean, it really is, like -- 173 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:01,920 This is basically interns and people doing it part time. 174 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:07,957 We bought some second-hand machinery. 175 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,340 It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so -- 176 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:13,837 CA: So an even bigger part of your time 177 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,200 is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. 178 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,957 Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project 179 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,517 the realization that actually, 180 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,957 in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving, 181 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,517 there may end up being more cars on the roads 182 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,917 on any given hour than there are now? 183 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:35,920 EM: Yeah, exactly. 184 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:42,277 A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, 185 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:46,917 they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. 186 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:48,837 And to some degree that will be true, 187 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:53,917 but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car 188 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:55,500 and you can go point to point, 189 00:11:56,960 --> 00:12:02,037 the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. 190 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:04,277 Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. 191 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:09,357 So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, 192 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,237 and actually traffic will get far worse. 193 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,517 CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world 194 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,677 that electrification was the future of cars, 195 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,077 and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. 196 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:27,757 Now, not so much. EM: OK. (Laughter) 197 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:29,997 I don't know. I don't know. 198 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,437 CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer 199 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,477 has announced serious electrification plans 200 00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:39,200 for the short- to medium-term future? 201 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:41,200 EM: Yeah. Yeah. 202 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:48,197 I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. 203 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:49,477 They vary in seriousness. 204 00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:53,797 Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, 205 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,240 and some are just dabbling in it. 206 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,637 And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, 207 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,797 but I think that won't last much longer. 208 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:03,877 CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon, 209 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,597 where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." 210 00:13:07,680 --> 00:13:11,760 Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff? 211 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:14,720 EM: Yeah. 212 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,837 I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, 213 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:25,517 and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. 214 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,717 Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. 215 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,200 We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck. 216 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,997 CA: OK, we're going to come to this. 217 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:38,997 So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish. 218 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,557 EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July. 219 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,357 CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about 220 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:50,597 is the fact that it's got autopilot. 221 00:13:50,680 --> 00:13:52,957 And you put out this video a while back 222 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:58,317 showing what that technology would look like. 223 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,087 EM: Yeah. CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now. 224 00:14:02,170 --> 00:14:03,477 What are we seeing here? 225 00:14:03,560 --> 00:14:09,517 EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. 226 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,037 So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here. 227 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:16,160 This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. 228 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,637 The whole road system is meant to be navigated 229 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:23,717 with passive optical, or cameras, 230 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:28,400 and so once you solve cameras or vision, 231 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:33,520 then autonomy is solved. If you don't solve vision, it's not solved. 232 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:40,077 So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net 233 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,317 that's very effective for road conditions. 234 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,957 CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. 235 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,837 You want cameras plus radar is most of it. 236 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,237 EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. 237 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,557 Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras. 238 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:01,037 CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. 239 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:05,397 They can't yet do what that showed. 240 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,120 When will they be able to? 241 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:14,117 EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country 242 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:18,317 from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous. 243 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:22,117 CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying, 244 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,117 someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, 245 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,637 tap in "New York," off it goes. 246 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:33,160 EM: Yeah. CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017. 247 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,837 EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, 248 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:43,277 we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California 249 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:44,957 to a parking lot in New York, 250 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,990 no controls touched at any point during the entire journey. 251 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:53,437 (Applause) CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible 252 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,877 because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. 253 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:01,760 You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system. 254 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,037 EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting 255 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:11,200 is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route 256 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,200 even if you change the route dynamically. 257 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,240 So, it's fairly easy -- 258 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,717 If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing, 259 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:28,877 but it should be able to go, really be very good, 260 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:33,437 certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system 261 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:34,760 in a given country. 262 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,277 So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York. 263 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:44,317 We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. 264 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,477 So you were going from LA to New York. 265 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,280 Now go from LA to Toronto. 266 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:55,797 CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, 267 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,637 the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars 268 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,477 and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep 269 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,517 and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely? 270 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,797 EM: I think that's about two years. 271 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:16,157 So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, 272 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:20,277 because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, 273 00:17:20,360 --> 00:17:24,340 then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. 274 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,540 You shouldn't be, certainly. (Laughter) 275 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,877 It's never going to be perfect. 276 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,320 No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhaps -- 277 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:46,357 the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, 278 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:50,277 then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, 279 00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:54,317 I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that's probably OK. 280 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:58,437 CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually 281 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:00,747 get seduced too early to think that this is safe, 282 00:18:00,830 --> 00:18:05,317 and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back. 283 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:11,357 EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, 284 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:12,920 except in rare circumstances. 285 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:20,000 The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. 286 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,317 I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, 287 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,277 that they will have an accident that is their fault. 288 00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:28,680 It's never zero. 289 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,757 So really the key threshold for autonomy 290 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,197 is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person 291 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,037 before you can rely on it? CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, 292 00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:45,877 the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, 293 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:50,277 because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car, 294 00:18:50,360 --> 00:18:52,437 drops you off at work, and then you let it go 295 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:57,677 and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, 296 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,157 maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, 297 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,037 so you can kind of get a car for free. 298 00:19:02,120 --> 00:19:06,197 Is that really likely? EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. 299 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,477 So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car 300 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,917 and you can choose to use that car exclusively, 301 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,637 you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, 302 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:21,717 only by other drivers who are rated five star, 303 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:26,680 you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. 304 00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:31,357 That's 100 percent what will occur. 305 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:32,890 It's just a question of when. 306 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,357 CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi 307 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,117 and I think you're planning to announce this in September, 308 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,237 but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today? 309 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,117 EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck. 310 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:52,837 (Laughter) It's alive. CA: OK. 311 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,557 EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious 312 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,040 about the autonomy features. 313 00:19:58,360 --> 00:20:02,797 Yeah. (Laughter) CA: We can't see that much of it, 314 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,037 but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. 315 00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:10,560 It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this? 316 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,677 EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. 317 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,957 So it's the highest weight capability 318 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:23,037 and with long range. 319 00:20:23,120 --> 00:20:28,560 So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. 320 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:34,517 And this is something which people do not today think is possible. 321 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:38,277 They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range, 322 00:20:38,360 --> 00:20:43,517 and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck 323 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:49,557 actually can out-torque any diesel semi. 324 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,717 And if you had a tug-of-war competition, 325 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:58,797 the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill. 326 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,957 (Laughter) (Applause) 327 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,997 CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless. 328 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,400 These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive. 329 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,037 EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this 330 00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:18,437 is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, 331 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,957 whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, 332 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,690 you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. 333 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,717 So this will be a very spry truck. 334 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,597 You can drive this around like a sports car. 335 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,997 There's no gears. It's, like, single speed. 336 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,477 CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere. 337 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,517 I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well, but it's a great movie. 338 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,317 (Laughter) EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving. 339 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,357 When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. 340 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,637 It's really weird, because you're driving around 341 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,757 and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck. 342 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,277 CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype? 343 00:21:57,360 --> 00:22:00,877 EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy. 344 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,077 CA: Wow. This is no vaporware. 345 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,197 EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers. 346 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:12,317 CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. 347 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,677 This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. 348 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,757 What on earth is going on here? 349 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,237 EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future 350 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,237 that I think is how things will evolve. 351 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,597 You've got an electric car in the driveway. 352 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,357 If you look in between the electric car and the house, 353 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,237 there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, 354 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,077 and then that house roof is a solar roof. 355 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,197 So that's an actual solar glass roof. 356 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:44,717 CA: OK. EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house. 357 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:51,397 That's a real fake house. (Laughter) CA: So these roof tiles, 358 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:57,557 some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to -- 359 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:04,397 EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color 360 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,397 to a very fine-grained level, 361 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:11,997 and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass, 362 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,477 such that when you're looking at the roof from street level 363 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,597 or close to street level, all the tiles look the same 364 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:24,760 whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. 365 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:32,877 So you have an even color from the ground level. 366 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:34,997 If you were to look at it from a helicopter, 367 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,397 you would be actually able to look through and see 368 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,437 that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. 369 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,077 You can't tell from street level. 370 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,157 CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, 371 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,557 and that makes these roofs super affordable, right? 372 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,557 They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof. 373 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:52,840 EM: Yeah. 374 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,440 We're very confident that the cost of the roof 375 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,760 plus the cost of electricity -- 376 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,797 A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof 377 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,517 plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, 378 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:13,597 this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, 379 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:18,837 and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, 380 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,677 but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, 381 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:28,317 but actually this is toughened glass. 382 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:33,157 Well after the house has collapsed and there's nothing there, 383 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,717 the glass tiles will still be there. 384 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,077 (Applause) CA: I mean, this is cool. 385 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,957 So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think, 386 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,517 with four different roofing types. 387 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,077 EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially, 388 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,277 and the second two will be introduced early next year. 389 00:24:51,360 --> 00:24:53,357 CA: And what's the scale of ambition here? 390 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:58,960 How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing? 391 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:01,160 EM: I think eventually 392 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,200 almost all houses will have a solar roof. 393 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:13,837 The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order 394 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,037 of 40 or 50 years. 395 00:25:17,120 --> 00:25:22,000 So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. 396 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,677 But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately. 397 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:33,517 But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, 398 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,200 it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar. 399 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,637 CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here 400 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:45,077 that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, 401 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,197 most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof 402 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,277 pretty much to power all of their needs. 403 00:25:51,360 --> 00:25:55,277 If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. 404 00:25:55,360 --> 00:25:56,837 You could go off-grid, kind of. 405 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,397 EM: It depends on where you are 406 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,677 and what the house size is relative to the roof area, 407 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:08,397 but it's a fair statement to say that most houses in the US have enough roof area 408 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,440 to power all the needs of the house. 409 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,917 CA: So the key to the economics 410 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,957 of the cars, the Semi, of these houses 411 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,877 is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, 412 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,397 which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla. 413 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,677 In many ways, that's almost the core competency. 414 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,957 And you've decided 415 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:35,197 that to really, like, own that competency, 416 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,677 you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant 417 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,837 to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries, 418 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:47,637 with this guy. What is this? EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory, 419 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,357 progress so far on the Gigafactory. 420 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,277 Eventually, you can sort of roughly see 421 00:26:52,360 --> 00:26:55,237 that there's sort of a diamond shape overall, 422 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:59,877 and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond, 423 00:26:59,960 --> 00:27:03,637 or that's the idea behind it, and it's aligned on true north. 424 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:09,317 It's a small detail. CA: And capable of producing, eventually, 425 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,517 like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year. 426 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,517 EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah. 427 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,917 CA: And they're actually being produced right now. 428 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,117 EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. 429 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,197 I mean, is that speeded up? EM: That's the slowed down version. 430 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:28,357 (Laughter) CA: How fast does it actually go? 431 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,197 EM: Well, when it's running at full speed, 432 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:35,157 you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light. 433 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,880 It's just blur. (Laughter) 434 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,517 CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future 435 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,400 is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. 436 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:48,837 Help us picture this. 437 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:53,877 How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there? 438 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,637 EM: It's about a hundred, roughly. 439 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,397 It's not 10, it's not a thousand. 440 00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:58,840 Most likely a hundred. 441 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:05,637 CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take 442 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,917 to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. 443 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:14,397 It's like you're building one, it costs five billion dollars, 444 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,557 or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. 445 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,197 Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project. 446 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,760 And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year. 447 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,277 EM: I think we'll announce locations 448 00:28:28,360 --> 00:28:32,037 for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. 449 00:28:32,120 --> 00:28:35,597 Yeah, probably four. CA: Whoa. 450 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:42,317 (Applause) No more teasing from you for here? 451 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,200 Like -- where, continent? 452 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:48,680 You can say no. 453 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,157 EM: We need to address a global market. 454 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,040 CA: OK. (Laughter) This is cool. 455 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,720 I think we should talk for -- 456 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:10,237 Actually, global market. I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one. 457 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,517 I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. 458 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:19,877 You're on a body now giving advice to a guy -- 459 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,037 EM: Who? CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change, 460 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:28,397 and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that. 461 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,317 They'd like you to walk away from that. 462 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,760 What would you say to them? 463 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:38,837 EM: Well, I think that first of all, I'm just on two advisory councils 464 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,677 where the format consists of going around the room 465 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,597 and asking people's opinion on things, 466 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:48,440 and so there's like a meeting every month or two. 467 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,717 That's the sum total of my contribution. 468 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,517 But I think to the degree that there are people in the room 469 00:29:55,600 --> 00:30:00,277 who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, 470 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:04,360 or social issues, 471 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,677 I've used the meetings I've had thus far 472 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:14,557 to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change. 473 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:21,477 (Applause) And if I hadn't done that, that wasn't on the agenda before. 474 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,800 So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said. 475 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:30,800 CA: OK. (Applause) 476 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,277 So let's talk SpaceX and Mars. 477 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:36,757 Last time you were here, 478 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,477 you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream 479 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,797 to develop rockets that were actually reusable. 480 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,957 And you've only gone and done it. 481 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:48,597 EM: Finally. It took a long time. 482 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,197 CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here? 483 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,357 EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters 484 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,957 coming back from very high and fast in space. 485 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:03,357 So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. 486 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:09,280 I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage. 487 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,880 (Applause) 488 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:17,117 CA: So that was a sped-up -- EM: That was the slowed down version. 489 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,997 (Laughter) CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. 490 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,717 But I mean, that's amazing, and several of these failed 491 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,677 before you finally figured out how to do it, 492 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,597 but now you've done this, what, five or six times? 493 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,557 EM: We're at eight or nine. CA: And for the first time, 494 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,717 you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed. 495 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,517 EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster 496 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,157 and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, 497 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:47,357 so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster 498 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,357 where that reflight is relevant. 499 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,557 So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant 500 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,720 if it is rapid and complete. 501 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:02,997 So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. 502 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:08,077 You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights. 503 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:12,917 CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea 504 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:18,557 of sending many, many, many people to Mars in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess. 505 00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:23,397 EM: Yeah. CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it. 506 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,837 Help us understand the scale of this thing. 507 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:30,800 EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person. 508 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:37,877 Yeah, and that's the vehicle. (Laughter) CA: So if that was a skyscraper, 509 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,237 that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper? 510 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:42,970 EM: Probably a little more, yeah. 511 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:48,360 The thrust level of this is really -- 512 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:55,280 This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket. 513 00:32:56,440 --> 00:33:01,237 CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before. 514 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:02,520 EM: Yeah. Yeah. 515 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:09,037 CA: As one does. EM: Yeah. (Laughter) 516 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:15,037 In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, 517 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,877 so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there's 40 747s. 518 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:26,157 So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing. 519 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,397 CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity, 520 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:35,117 I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, 521 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,757 people, cargo, everything, into orbit. 522 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,917 EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, 523 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:50,760 maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo. 524 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,757 CA: So based on this, 525 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:58,597 you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System 526 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,997 which is visualized this way. 527 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:06,160 This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? 528 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,397 People walking into this rocket. 529 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:13,997 EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. 530 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,397 Aspirationally, that's our target. 531 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:21,680 Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think -- (Laughter) 532 00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,917 CA: OK. EM: While vehicle seems quite large 533 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:33,117 and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft 534 00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:37,040 will make this look like a rowboat. 535 00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:42,957 The future spaceships will be truly enormous. 536 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:49,317 CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars 537 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,397 with a million people on it in your lifetime, 538 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,480 which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do? 539 00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,240 EM: I think it's important to have 540 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,797 a future that is inspiring and appealing. 541 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,597 I just think there have to be reasons 542 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,557 that you get up in the morning and you want to live. 543 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,037 Like, why do you want to live? 544 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:12,797 What's the point? What inspires you? 545 00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,677 What do you love about the future? 546 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,197 And if we're not out there, 547 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:20,237 if the future does not include being out there among the stars 548 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:24,477 and being a multiplanet species, I find that it's incredibly depressing 549 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,837 if that's not the future that we're going to have. 550 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:34,397 (Applause) CA: People want to position this as an either or, 551 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:38,117 that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now 552 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:41,640 from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. 553 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,957 And this feels like a distraction. 554 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:46,797 You shouldn't be thinking about this. 555 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,997 You should be solving what's here and now. 556 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,957 And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that 557 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,797 with your work on sustainable energy. 558 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:56,920 But why not just do that? 559 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,440 EM: I think there's -- 560 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:09,197 I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. 561 00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,397 It's like a branching stream of probabilities, 562 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:18,480 and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities 563 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,120 or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. 564 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:28,120 I may introduce something new to the probability stream. 565 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:32,957 Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. 566 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,477 If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, 567 00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,357 it would have to happen out of necessity. 568 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:39,957 It's tautological. 569 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,637 If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. 570 00:36:43,720 --> 00:36:45,277 Eventually you will run out, 571 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:51,117 and the laws of economics will drive civilization 572 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,037 towards sustainable energy, inevitably. 573 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,037 The fundamental value of a company like Tesla 574 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:01,477 is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, 575 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,410 faster than it would otherwise occur. 576 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:09,037 So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, 577 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:10,757 I would say, hopefully, 578 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:16,397 if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, 579 00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,557 that would be quite a good thing to occur. 580 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:24,360 That's what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla. 581 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:31,757 Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. 582 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,717 This is not inevitable. 583 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,437 It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. 584 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,557 The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, 585 00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:44,317 but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. 586 00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,517 If you look at the progress in space, 587 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,200 in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 588 00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:53,240 1969. 589 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,677 Then we had the Space Shuttle. 590 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,117 The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. 591 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:05,250 Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. 592 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:10,280 So that's the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. 593 00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,997 People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. 594 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,917 It does not automatically improve. 595 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:22,597 It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, 596 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:28,397 and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. 597 00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:30,837 You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, 598 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,637 and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. 599 00:38:34,720 --> 00:38:37,477 And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. 600 00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:38,810 They forgot how to do it. 601 00:38:40,720 --> 00:38:42,717 CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you 602 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,997 and looking at the different things you've done, 603 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,797 that you've got this unique double motivation on everything 604 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,230 that I find so interesting. 605 00:38:51,720 --> 00:38:56,237 One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good. 606 00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:58,597 The other is the desire to do something exciting. 607 00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:03,317 And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. 608 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,437 With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, 609 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:10,997 so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. 610 00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,697 Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. 611 00:39:14,780 --> 00:39:18,477 We haven't even spoken about your newest thing, which we don't have time to do, 612 00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,837 but you want to save humanity from bad AI, 613 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,157 and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface 614 00:39:24,240 --> 00:39:28,037 to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. 615 00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:34,477 And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity 616 00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:39,157 and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, 617 00:39:39,240 --> 00:39:43,760 and this is a way to inspire. 618 00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:51,397 EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, 619 00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,277 no question. But I want to be clear. 620 00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,117 I'm not trying to be anyone's savior. 621 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:57,400 That is not the -- 622 00:39:58,240 --> 00:40:03,240 I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad. 623 00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,720 (Applause) CA: Beautiful statement. 624 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,000 I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- 625 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:15,797 None of this is going to happen inevitably. 626 00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,477 The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, 627 00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,077 you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, 628 00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,757 or no one else would be capable of dreaming 629 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,437 at the level of complexity that you do. 630 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,637 The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. 631 00:40:31,720 --> 00:40:34,357 Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger. 632 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,877 EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right? 633 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:43,517 (Laughter) CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. 634 00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:49,120 That was really fantastic. (Applause)