1
00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:03,037
Even if the technology goes as fast as I

2
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:06,397
suspect that it will, we we don't know

3
00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:10,957
exactly how fast it's going to drive
revenue. We we know it's coming, but

4
00:00:11,040 --> 00:00:15,277
with the way you buy these data centers,
if you're off by a couple years, that

5
00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,877
can be ruinous. It is just like how I
wrote, you know, in machines of loving

6
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,957
grace, I said, look, I think we might
get this powerful AI, this country of

7
00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,517
genius in the data center,
that description you gave comes from the

8
00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:30,317
machines of loving grace. I said, "We'll
get that 2026, maybe 2027." Again, that

9
00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,277
is that is my hunch. Wouldn't be
surprised if I'm off by a year or two,

10
00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:37,757
but like that is my hunch. Let's say
that happens. That's the starting gun.

11
00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,277
How long does it take to cure all
the diseases, right? That's that's one of

12
00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,597
the ways that like drives a huge amount
of of of of economic value, right? Like

13
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,277
you cure you cure every disease.
You know there's a question of how much of

14
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,997
that goes to the pharmaceutical
company to the AI company but there's an

15
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,917
enormous consumer surplus because
everyone you know assuming we can get

16
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,597
access for everyone which I care about
greatly we you know we we cure all of

17
00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:01,597
these diseases how long does it take you

18
00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,757
have to do the biological discovery you

19
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:08,957
have to you know go you have to you know
manufacture the new drug you have to you

20
00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,077
know go through the regulatory process
I mean we saw this with like vaccines and

21
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,357
co right like it there's just this we we

22
00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,117
got the vaccine out to everyone but it
took a year and a half, right? And and

23
00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,517
so my question is, how long does it take

24
00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,957
to get the cure for everything, which AI

25
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,757
is the genius that can in theory invent

26
00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:32,397
out to everyone? How long from when
that AI first exists in the lab to when

27
00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,637
diseases have actually been cured for

28
00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,517
everyone, right? In in you know, we've

29
00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:42,157
had a polio vaccine for 50 years. We're
still trying to eradicate it in the most

30
00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,837
remote corners of Africa. And you know,
the Gates Foundation is trying as hard

31
00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,837
as they can. others are trying
as hard as they can but you know that's

32
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,277
difficult again I you know I don't
expect most of the economic diffusion to

33
00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,197
be as difficult as that right that's
like the most difficult case but but

34
00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,437
there's a there's a real dilemma here

35
00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,997
and and where I've settled on it is it

36
00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,957
will be it will be it will be faster

37
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,957
than anything we've seen in the world

38
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,837
but it still has its limits and and so

39
00:02:09,920 --> 00:02:13,277
then when we go to buying data centers

40
00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,517
you know you again again the curve I'm

41
00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,477
looking at is okay. We you know we've

42
00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,997
had a 10x a year increase every year. So

43
00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:27,037
beginning of this year we're looking
at 10 billion in in in annual in you know

44
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,477
rate of annualized revenue. At the
beginning of the year we have to decide

45
00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,837
how much compute to buy. Um

46
00:02:33,920 --> 00:02:39,037
and you know it takes a year or two
to actually build out the data centers to

47
00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:40,637
reserve the data centers. So basically

48
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,717
I'm saying like in uh 2027 how much

49
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,837
compute do I get? Well, I could assume

50
00:02:47,920 --> 00:02:52,717
um uh that uh the uh revenue will

51
00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,717
continue growing 10x a year. So it'll be

52
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:58,557
uh one uh one 100 billion at the end of

53
00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:02,557
2026 and 1 trillion at the end of 2027.

54
00:03:02,640 --> 00:03:05,197
And so I could buy a trillion dollars.

55
00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,317
Actually, it would be like5 trillion
dollars of compute because it would be a

56
00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,157
trillion dollar a year for for five
years, right? I could buy a trillion

57
00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,157
dollars of compute that starts at the

58
00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,597
end of 2027. And if my if my revenue is

59
00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,637
not a trillion dollars, if it's even

60
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,677
800 billion, there's no force on earth.

61
00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,997
There's there's no hedge on earth that
could stop me from going bankrupt if I

62
00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:32,317
if I buy that much compute. And and so
even though a part of my brain wonders

63
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,957
if it's going to keep growing 10x, I

64
00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:37,117
can't buy a trillion dollars a year of

65
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,397
compute in in in in in in in in

66
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,757
2027. Uh if I'm just off by a year in

67
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,757
that rate of growth, or if the the growth
rate is 5x a year instead of 10x

68
00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,397
a year, then then you know you go

69
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,997
bankrupt. Um and and and so you end up

70
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,237
in a world where you know you're

71
00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,957
supporting hundreds of billions not

72
00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,357
trillions and you accept you accept some

73
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,317
risk that there's so much demand that

74
00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:09,197
you can't support the revenue and you
accept still some risk that you know you

75
00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,517
got it wrong and it's still slow and so
when I talked about behaving responsibly

76
00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,757
what I meant actually was not
the absolute amount that that actually was

77
00:04:17,840 --> 00:04:22,157
not um you know I think it is true we're
spending somewhat less than some of the

78
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:26,717
other players. It's actually the other
things like have we been thoughtful

79
00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,477
about it or are we yoloing and saying,
"Oh, we're going to do hundred billion

80
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,557
here or hundred billion dollars there."

81
00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,317
I kind of get the impression that,
you know, some of the other companies have

82
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,277
not written down the spreadsheet that
they don't really understand the risk

83
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,477
they're taking. They're just kind
of doing stuff because it sounds cool. If

84
00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:44,077
you enjoyed this clip, you can watch the

85
00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:49,680
full episode here and subscribe
for more clips. Thanks.