WEBVTT

00:00:00.400 --> 00:00:03.277
So the theory of great geniuses is that

00:00:03.360 --> 00:00:05.997
they understand one area extremely well

00:00:06.080 --> 00:00:08.957
and they're so brilliant the lady or man

00:00:09.040 --> 00:00:11.037
can then take their ideas and apply it

00:00:11.120 --> 00:00:14.237
to a completely different domain. If we

00:00:14.320 --> 00:00:16.877
can solve that problem then I think it's

00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:21.837
over. Then we get to AGI and then
it's a whole different world.

00:00:21.920 --> 00:00:25.757
>> So Eric Schmidt just gave another
eye openening interview about AGI. He

00:00:25.840 --> 00:00:30.397
unveiled the exact how we get to AGI and
also mapped the time we can achieve it.

00:00:30.480 --> 00:00:32.637
Let's listen to this before
we dive in deeper.

00:00:32.720 --> 00:00:35.677
>> It feels like there's
been um a pullback

00:00:35.760 --> 00:00:39.037
a little bit from the AGI narrative
which I think I think is actually a good

00:00:39.120 --> 00:00:43.437
thing. I think it's more conducive
to calm rational policym. What's your

00:00:43.520 --> 00:00:45.357
perception of AGI right now? Where where

00:00:45.440 --> 00:00:48.637
are we on that whole train? So, so, um,

00:00:48.720 --> 00:00:50.477
so first place, the speech that the

00:00:50.560 --> 00:00:55.757
president delivered about a month ago
about AI strategy, which I think you

00:00:55.840 --> 00:00:59.997
probably wouldn't say it, but you kind
of wrote it for him, was exactly right.

00:01:00.080 --> 00:01:03.437
Right. So, thank you.
>> David collaborated with an amazing

00:01:03.520 --> 00:01:06.797
leader who we all respect and admire so

00:01:06.880 --> 00:01:09.277
much, Eric.

00:01:09.360 --> 00:01:12.877
>> Yes. Uh, so, nevertheless,

00:01:12.960 --> 00:01:16.717
>> saying I wrote it was was way too
strong. I mean, actually, but anyway, If

00:01:16.800 --> 00:01:17.997
you didn't write it, then it must have

00:01:18.080 --> 00:01:21.437
been your twin. But in any case, um the

00:01:21.520 --> 00:01:24.077
you got you got the emphasis right,

00:01:24.160 --> 00:01:26.477
which was that investment in research,

00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:31.437
investment in the kind of stuff
that we do is really really important.

00:01:31.520 --> 00:01:35.597
I don't agree with you on this on this
AGI thing because there's this group

00:01:35.680 --> 00:01:38.397
which I call the San Francisco um

00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:42.637
narrative because they all live in San
Francisco and their narrative goes

00:01:42.720 --> 00:01:47.357
something like this. Um today we're
doing agents. Uh the agentic revolution

00:01:47.440 --> 00:01:51.837
will change businesses which I agree with.
Um that what happens is the

00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:56.077
systems will become
recursively self-intelligent.

00:01:56.160 --> 00:02:00.717
With recursive self-improvement as it's
called if you have a scale-free problem

00:02:00.800 --> 00:02:02.877
and a scale-free problem for example is

00:02:02.960 --> 00:02:04.957
programming or math where you can just

00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:07.757
keep doing it. You get these enormous

00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:12.237
fast gains if you buy enough hardware,
do enough software so forth and so on.

00:02:12.320 --> 00:02:14.637
that is still underway.

00:02:14.720 --> 00:02:17.597
The collective of that says that in the

00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:20.637
next three-ish years they believe that

00:02:20.720 --> 00:02:23.357
we will get forms of super intelligence

00:02:23.440 --> 00:02:26.397
and the way they define it is basically

00:02:26.480 --> 00:02:29.277
a savant a chemist soant a physics soant

00:02:29.360 --> 00:02:33.517
a mathematician soant I don't agree
with the three years but I do agree that

00:02:33.600 --> 00:02:38.157
it'll be maybe six or seven years
>> but if it's a savant in you know a

00:02:38.240 --> 00:02:41.197
particular area
is that general intelligence

00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:46.317
>> it's not general intelligence Yet
general intelligence is when it can set

00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:48.637
its own objective function. >> Right?

00:02:48.720 --> 00:02:50.237
>> And >> there's no evidence of that.

00:02:50.320 --> 00:02:53.357
>> There's no evidence right now
of the ability to set your own objective

00:02:53.440 --> 00:02:55.917
function. Um the the the thinking and

00:02:56.000 --> 00:02:57.837
I'm writing a paper on this so I've been

00:02:57.920 --> 00:03:00.957
studying it is that the the the

00:03:01.040 --> 00:03:05.997
technical problem is non-stationerity
of mathematical proofs. And that what

00:03:06.080 --> 00:03:09.357
you're doing is you're trying to solve
against objective function but the

00:03:09.440 --> 00:03:13.517
objective function keeps changing which
is how humans operate. your goal changes

00:03:13.600 --> 00:03:15.117
every day. Whereas computers have

00:03:15.200 --> 00:03:17.677
trouble with that. As a math problem, we

00:03:17.760 --> 00:03:20.717
don't have an algorithm yet for LLMs

00:03:20.800 --> 00:03:22.557
that can do that. People are working on

00:03:22.640 --> 00:03:26.637
it. Um and the the test will be can you

00:03:26.720 --> 00:03:29.277
basically um using the information

00:03:29.360 --> 00:03:32.557
available in 1902, can you derive the

00:03:32.640 --> 00:03:34.157
same thing that Einstein did with

00:03:34.240 --> 00:03:36.397
special relativity followed by general

00:03:36.480 --> 00:03:39.997
relativity? We cannot do that today. Um

00:03:40.080 --> 00:03:42.797
and most people believe that the way

00:03:42.880 --> 00:03:45.357
this will be solved is through analogy.

00:03:45.440 --> 00:03:48.317
So the theory of great geniuses is that

00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:51.037
they understand one area extremely well

00:03:51.120 --> 00:03:53.997
and they're so brilliant the lady or man

00:03:54.080 --> 00:03:55.997
can then take their ideas and apply it

00:03:56.080 --> 00:03:59.277
to a completely different domain. If we

00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:01.837
can solve that problem then I think it's

00:04:01.920 --> 00:04:05.357
over. Then we get to AGI and then it's a

00:04:05.440 --> 00:04:07.037
whole different world.

00:04:07.120 --> 00:04:09.357
I think one of the reasons why it's hard

00:04:09.440 --> 00:04:13.437
to replace a human and you know JK and I

00:04:13.520 --> 00:04:17.757
debate this is that humans are end to end.
You know we can do the whole job.

00:04:17.840 --> 00:04:20.477
You have sort of a complete
understanding. You can pivot very

00:04:20.560 --> 00:04:24.797
easily. AI at least as we know it
today is not end to end. It has to be

00:04:24.880 --> 00:04:28.637
prompted. You get an answer. That answer
has to be validated. Then you have to

00:04:28.720 --> 00:04:31.597
ask a new question because it never
gives you exactly what you want. You

00:04:31.680 --> 00:04:34.637
have to apply more context. You have
to go through an iterative loop. Finally,

00:04:34.720 --> 00:04:39.117
you get to an answer that has business
value. The way biology puts it is that

00:04:39.200 --> 00:04:41.037
AI is not endtoend. It's middle to

00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:43.197
middle. Humans are endtoend. And so, as

00:04:43.280 --> 00:04:46.157
a result of that, instead of AI

00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:48.797
replacing all of us, AI will be very

00:04:48.880 --> 00:04:53.277
synergistic with humans because we can
define the objective function. We do the

00:04:53.360 --> 00:04:57.357
prompting and we work with it to iterate
and it does a lot of the work in the

00:04:57.440 --> 00:05:00.237
middle. Um, that seems to me like a very

00:05:00.320 --> 00:05:03.437
optimistic, less doomeristic take on it.

00:05:03.520 --> 00:05:07.837
What you just said is exactly what's
going to happen for the next few years

00:05:07.920 --> 00:05:10.317
that each of us will have assistance

00:05:10.400 --> 00:05:12.797
which on our command and our prompting

00:05:12.880 --> 00:05:17.517
will be incredibly helpful to whatever
problem we have you know personal uh you

00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:20.477
have people who are using these things
for relationship advice for you know

00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:24.157
talking to their kids I mean it's
all crazy stuff um but the fact of the

00:05:24.240 --> 00:05:28.557
matter is that's it the to me the real
question is when does it cross over to

00:05:28.640 --> 00:05:32.557
having its own valition its own ability
to seek information and solve new

00:05:32.640 --> 00:05:34.317
problems s that's a different animal.

00:05:34.400 --> 00:05:37.677
>> But have we seen any evidence
of recursive self-improvement yet?

00:05:37.760 --> 00:05:40.717
>> Um, not yet. I'm I'm I've funded a

00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:44.957
number of startups which claim to be
close to it, but of course these are

00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:47.277
startups and you never know, which tells

00:05:47.360 --> 00:05:49.997
me it's 5 10 years.

00:05:50.080 --> 00:05:54.477
>> Okay, so just in 5 to 10 years, that
will be enormously fast for a new tech

00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:56.477
industry. And recursive self-improvement

00:05:56.560 --> 00:06:01.837
is the key element that define AGI
and ASI. Let's go deeper into this with

00:06:01.920 --> 00:06:04.477
Eric. >> People who are
now looking at how do you

00:06:04.560 --> 00:06:09.037
control a super intelligence with a dumb
intelligence, right? And there's math

00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:12.557
that I did not understand which says
that to some degree you can contain it,

00:06:12.640 --> 00:06:17.277
but we don't know. Um, but I think
this the first point to make is that

00:06:17.360 --> 00:06:21.037
recursive self-improvement or recursive
intelligence is where the system is

00:06:21.120 --> 00:06:23.837
learning itself and you're beginning to

00:06:23.920 --> 00:06:25.837
see agentic solutions that are doing

00:06:25.920 --> 00:06:28.957
self-learning. Um, I expect by the end

00:06:29.040 --> 00:06:33.277
of this year, so six months, you'll be
getting you you'll start using systems

00:06:33.360 --> 00:06:35.277
that are learning as you're using them.

00:06:35.360 --> 00:06:39.517
It's the natural progression. One
of the reasons to think that the hardware

00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:44.157
investments that you're seeing, which
are insanely large, make sense is that

00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:47.757
that those reasoning models are
infinitely more expensive than a Google

00:06:47.840 --> 00:06:50.397
search. Many many thousands of times

00:06:50.480 --> 00:06:52.477
more electricity queries and so forth

00:06:52.560 --> 00:06:57.677
and so on. And so you the recursive
stuff has already started.

00:06:57.760 --> 00:06:59.277
The general consensus there are

00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:03.437
different definitions of AGI is that AGI

00:07:03.520 --> 00:07:07.837
means it's generally intelligent. Now
generally intelligent means that you get

00:07:07.920 --> 00:07:11.997
up there in the morning and you have
free will. Uh I think largely invented

00:07:12.080 --> 00:07:16.317
here in France and you you have free
will and you basically have this notion

00:07:16.400 --> 00:07:20.797
of I get up, I do what I want, I learn
what I want, I seek what I want. That

00:07:20.880 --> 00:07:25.117
kind of strategic intelligence is not
yet present in these systems. The

00:07:25.200 --> 00:07:27.757
consensus is that occurs my own dates

00:07:27.840 --> 00:07:29.917
are between you know four to six years

00:07:30.000 --> 00:07:33.597
relatively soon. The step after that is

00:07:33.680 --> 00:07:38.157
when the system the general term there
is super intelligence. It's where the

00:07:38.240 --> 00:07:40.317
system is smarter than the sum of all

00:07:40.400 --> 00:07:43.437
humans. And the test for for super

00:07:43.520 --> 00:07:46.477
intelligence is pretty simple. It can

00:07:46.560 --> 00:07:49.357
prove something that we know to be true

00:07:49.440 --> 00:07:52.477
but we cannot understand the proof. We

00:07:52.560 --> 00:07:54.877
humans no human can understand it. Even

00:07:54.960 --> 00:07:56.877
all of us together cannot understand it

00:07:56.960 --> 00:07:59.677
but we know it's true. Henry would say

00:07:59.760 --> 00:08:03.837
what is that? Is that magic?

00:08:03.920 --> 00:08:05.757
He also would say and we said in the

00:08:05.840 --> 00:08:08.397
book that when people see that they may

00:08:08.480 --> 00:08:11.037
take up arms against it because it'll be

00:08:11.120 --> 00:08:13.997
so frightening to humans. A number of us

00:08:14.080 --> 00:08:18.637
wrote a a paper on super intelligence
where we speculated how do you contain

00:08:18.720 --> 00:08:23.277
super intelligence? I do a lot
of national security work and how do you

00:08:23.360 --> 00:08:28.077
deal with the fact that your competitor
might be ahead of you? Well, in network

00:08:28.160 --> 00:08:31.437
effect businesses, which is what I've
lived in for my whole life, didn't have

00:08:31.520 --> 00:08:35.197
a name when I started, but there
understand that all the most valuable

00:08:35.280 --> 00:08:37.597
companies in the world are essentially
network effect businesses because

00:08:37.680 --> 00:08:40.157
network effects work. What happens when

00:08:40.240 --> 00:08:44.637
you've got two countries where one
is ahead of the other? And I'll give you a

00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:47.997
simple example. This is you and me.
We have our little tech startup. We have a

00:08:48.080 --> 00:08:50.317
thousand people so forth. And then one

00:08:50.400 --> 00:08:52.957
day you and I decide that we're going to

00:08:53.040 --> 00:08:57.997
have AI researchers. That is computers
doing AI research. And how many do we

00:08:58.080 --> 00:09:02.477
have? Well, we have a million because we
we have enough money. And all they need

00:09:02.560 --> 00:09:06.397
is electricity. You know, they don't
eat pizza, they don't sleep, whatever. So

00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:08.157
now your slope of innovation goes like

00:09:08.240 --> 00:09:11.197
that. this in a network effect business.

00:09:11.280 --> 00:09:13.597
This is likely to produce slopes of

00:09:13.680 --> 00:09:17.277
gains at this level. The opponent may

00:09:17.360 --> 00:09:21.517
decide that once you get there,
they'll never catch up and then you can do

00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:23.517
really bad things to them. Then you have

00:09:23.600 --> 00:09:25.837
an issue essentially a race condition of

00:09:25.920 --> 00:09:28.797
preeemption. So these are just the

00:09:28.880 --> 00:09:31.437
beginnings of these ideas. But if you

00:09:31.520 --> 00:09:34.477
believe that AI is this powerful, then

00:09:34.560 --> 00:09:37.117
every aspect of human experience will be

00:09:37.200 --> 00:09:41.837
touched by it, including national
security, politicians, democracies, and

00:09:41.920 --> 00:09:44.077
so forth. I spend lots of time in

00:09:44.160 --> 00:09:46.157
conversations with people who say, will

00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:51.037
democracy uh survive AGI, right? I mean,

00:09:51.120 --> 00:09:54.397
these are really the core questions
about humanity that are being raised by

00:09:54.480 --> 00:09:56.637
the arrival of this intelligence.

00:09:56.720 --> 00:10:00.397
>> Pretty wild interviews so far. So
in the upcoming part, let's see what Dr.

00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:03.837
Schmidt talks about the AI bubble and
the historically important discovery for

00:10:03.920 --> 00:10:07.197
our mankind. >> If you ask
most of the executives in the

00:10:07.280 --> 00:10:09.997
industry, they will say the following.

00:10:10.080 --> 00:10:13.837
They'll say that we're
in a period of overbuilding.

00:10:13.920 --> 00:10:15.757
They'll say that there will be over

00:10:15.840 --> 00:10:19.437
capacity in two or three years.

00:10:19.520 --> 00:10:23.357
And when you ask them, they'll say,
"But I'll be fine and the other guys are

00:10:23.440 --> 00:10:25.437
going to lose all their money." So

00:10:25.520 --> 00:10:28.717
that's a classic bubble, right?

00:10:28.800 --> 00:10:32.317
What would mean what would it be? What
would need to be true for that not to be

00:10:32.400 --> 00:10:35.997
a bubble? If you believe the San Francisco

00:10:36.080 --> 00:10:40.237
consensus and you believe that reasoning,

00:10:40.320 --> 00:10:44.717
which is done through inference
and through these back and forth um

00:10:44.800 --> 00:10:50.077
essentially reinforcement learning
chains, if you believe that those are

00:10:50.160 --> 00:10:54.877
going to be the defining aspects
of humanity, then it's underhyped and we

00:10:54.960 --> 00:10:58.237
need even more. I know that sounds insane,

00:10:58.320 --> 00:11:03.117
right? But that's the basis of the
reasoning. I personally don't know. Um

00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:07.597
I've looked at this pretty hard because
you have these massive data centers and

00:11:07.680 --> 00:11:12.477
Nvidia is quite happy to sell them all
the chips, you know, and uh the real

00:11:12.560 --> 00:11:13.997
estate developers are used to borrowing

00:11:14.080 --> 00:11:16.877
money to build these things. I've never

00:11:16.960 --> 00:11:20.637
seen a situation where hardware capacity

00:11:20.720 --> 00:11:23.677
was not taken up by software. There was

00:11:23.760 --> 00:11:27.117
an old saying when I was young that was

00:11:27.200 --> 00:11:31.917
grove giveth and gates taketh away,

00:11:32.000 --> 00:11:36.637
right? Referring to Intel. So you the
old-timers will remember that the Intel

00:11:36.720 --> 00:11:40.717
chips would get better, but your
computer never got faster. And we used

00:11:40.800 --> 00:11:42.317
to say, why does it not get faster?

00:11:42.400 --> 00:11:44.397
Well, because in this case, Microsoft

00:11:44.480 --> 00:11:46.797
would add all these extra features. So I

00:11:46.880 --> 00:11:49.997
think it's it's unlikely based on my

00:11:50.080 --> 00:11:53.117
experience that this is a bubble. It's

00:11:53.200 --> 00:11:57.197
much more likely that you're seeing
an whole new industrial structure. So one

00:11:57.280 --> 00:11:59.837
way to think about this is the discovery

00:11:59.920 --> 00:12:03.197
of LLMs and foundation models which

00:12:03.280 --> 00:12:05.037
we're properly going to give credit to

00:12:05.120 --> 00:12:08.317
the team at OpenAI at the time is a

00:12:08.400 --> 00:12:11.757
historically important discovery. it

00:12:11.840 --> 00:12:15.837
began right to give them some credit
although in fairness quite a few of

00:12:15.920 --> 00:12:19.757
those people used to work for me uh we
won't bring that up but we'll give them

00:12:19.840 --> 00:12:22.797
credit that historical event

00:12:22.880 --> 00:12:26.797
is a very big deal overall AI is no

00:12:26.880 --> 00:12:29.597
longer just a tool it is a force

00:12:29.680 --> 00:12:32.717
reshaping business society and culture

00:12:32.800 --> 00:12:37.197
no one knows how this is all going
to work yet but preparation matters let's

00:12:37.280 --> 00:12:41.357
wrap things up with this powerful speech
from the former open AAI chief chief

00:12:41.440 --> 00:12:42.477
scientist.

00:12:42.560 --> 00:12:43.917
>> There is something a little different

00:12:44.000 --> 00:12:48.557
going on right now. You all leave, we

00:12:48.640 --> 00:12:51.997
all leave in the most unusual time ever.

00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:55.037
And this is something that people might
say often, but I think it's actually

00:12:55.120 --> 00:12:57.117
true this time. And the reason it's true

00:12:57.200 --> 00:13:01.357
this time is because of AI, right?

00:13:01.440 --> 00:13:06.157
Obviously, I mean, from what I hear,

00:13:06.240 --> 00:13:08.637
the AI of today has already changed what

00:13:08.720 --> 00:13:12.237
it means to be a student by a pretty

00:13:12.320 --> 00:13:14.957
considerable degree.

00:13:15.040 --> 00:13:16.797
That's

00:13:16.880 --> 00:13:20.797
I uh especially I that's what I I sense

00:13:20.880 --> 00:13:23.357
and I think it's true. But of course,

00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:27.357
the impact of AI goes beyond that.

00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:29.597
What happens to the kind of work we do?

00:13:29.680 --> 00:13:34.237
Well, it's starting to change a little bit
in some unknown and unpredictable ways.

00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:39.037
And some some some
work may feel it sooner,

00:13:39.120 --> 00:13:43.437
some work might feel it later.
With today's AI, you can go on on uh on

00:13:43.520 --> 00:13:47.517
Twitter and you can look at what AI
can do and what people say and you might

00:13:47.600 --> 00:13:50.797
feel a little bit of that. You wonder,
hey, which skills are useful? Which ones

00:13:50.880 --> 00:13:52.877
will be less useful? So, you got these

00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:55.197
questions going on. And so you can say

00:13:55.280 --> 00:14:01.117
that the current level of challenge is

00:14:01.200 --> 00:14:04.077
how will it affect

00:14:04.160 --> 00:14:07.277
work and our careers.

00:14:07.360 --> 00:14:11.517
But the thing the real challenge with AI
is that is really unprecedented and

00:14:11.600 --> 00:14:15.757
really extreme and it's going to be very
different in the future compared to the

00:14:15.840 --> 00:14:19.917
way it is today. Like you know we've all
seen AI. We've all spoken to a computer

00:14:20.000 --> 00:14:24.477
and a computer has spoken back to us
which is a new thing. Computers would

00:14:24.560 --> 00:14:28.717
not do this in the past, but now they do.
So, you speak to a computer and it

00:14:28.800 --> 00:14:32.397
understands you and it speaks back
to you and it also does it in voice and it

00:14:32.480 --> 00:14:35.197
write some code. It's it's pretty crazy,

00:14:35.280 --> 00:14:39.437
but there are so many things it cannot
do as well and it's so efficient. So,

00:14:39.520 --> 00:14:41.117
you can say it still needs to catch up

00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:44.957
on a lot of things, but

00:14:45.040 --> 00:14:47.037
it's evocative.

00:14:47.120 --> 00:14:48.957
It's good enough that you can ask

00:14:49.040 --> 00:14:54.237
yourself, you could imagine, okay, fine,
in some number of years, some people say

00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:58.397
it's in three, some people say it's
in five, 10, numbers are being thrown

00:14:58.480 --> 00:15:03.197
around. It's a bit hard
to predict the future, but [snorts]

00:15:03.280 --> 00:15:07.437
slowly but surely or maybe not so slowly,
AI will keep getting better. And

00:15:07.520 --> 00:15:12.637
the day will come when AI will do all
of our all the things that we can do. Not

00:15:12.720 --> 00:15:13.997
just some of them, but all of them.

00:15:14.080 --> 00:15:15.837
Anything which I can learn, anything

00:15:15.920 --> 00:15:18.317
which any any one of you can learn, the

00:15:18.400 --> 00:15:21.117
AI could do as well. How do we know

00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:23.037
this? By the way, how can I be so sure?

00:15:23.120 --> 00:15:25.837
How can I be so sure of that? The reason

00:15:25.920 --> 00:15:27.437
is

00:15:27.520 --> 00:15:30.637
that all of us have a brain and the

00:15:30.720 --> 00:15:33.757
brain is a biological computer.

00:15:33.840 --> 00:15:36.397
That's why we have a brain, the brain is

00:15:36.480 --> 00:15:41.277
a biological computer. So why can't
a digital computer, a digital brain do the

00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:44.957
same things? This is the one sentence
summary for why AI will be able to do

00:15:45.040 --> 00:15:49.357
all those things because we have a brain
and the brain is a biological computer.

00:15:49.440 --> 00:15:53.357
And so you can start asking yourselves
what's going to happen? What's going to

00:15:53.440 --> 00:15:56.557
happen when computers can do all
of our jobs? Right? Those are really big

00:15:56.640 --> 00:15:58.637
questions. Those are dramatic questions.

00:15:58.720 --> 00:16:01.357
And right now like you start thinking
about it a little bit. You go, gosh,

00:16:01.440 --> 00:16:02.957
that's a little intense. But it's

00:16:03.040 --> 00:16:05.037
actually only part of the intensity

00:16:05.120 --> 00:16:08.717
because what's going to happen?

00:16:08.800 --> 00:16:11.757
What what will we the collective V want

00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:16.157
to use these AIs for? Do more work, grow

00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:20.397
the economy, do R&D, do AI research. So

00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:24.717
then the rate of progress will become
really extremely fast for some time at

00:16:24.800 --> 00:16:27.117
least. These are such extreme things.

00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:30.797
These are such unimaginable things.
So right now I'm trying to pull you into

00:16:30.880 --> 00:16:33.357
that a little bit into this headsp space

00:16:33.440 --> 00:16:38.637
of this really extreme and radical
future that AI creates. But it's also

00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:41.517
very difficult to imagine. It's very
very difficult to imagine. It's very

00:16:41.600 --> 00:16:45.037
difficult to internalize and to really
believe on an emotional level. Even I

00:16:45.120 --> 00:16:47.917
struggle with it. And yet the logic

00:16:48.000 --> 00:16:51.917
seems to dictate that this very likely

00:16:52.000 --> 00:16:54.237
should happen.

00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:56.877
So

00:16:56.960 --> 00:17:00.077
what does one do in such a world? You

00:17:00.160 --> 00:17:02.717
know there is a quote which is like this

00:17:02.800 --> 00:17:04.637
uh

00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:07.917
uh which goes like this. It says you may

00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:09.917
not take interest in politics but

00:17:10.000 --> 00:17:12.717
politics will take interest in you. So

00:17:12.800 --> 00:17:15.437
the same applies to AI many times over.

00:17:15.520 --> 00:17:20.237
And in particular I think that by simply

00:17:20.320 --> 00:17:23.037
using AI and looking at what the best AI

00:17:23.120 --> 00:17:26.317
of today can do, you get an intuition.

00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:31.037
You get an intuition. And as AI
continues to improve in one year, in two

00:17:31.120 --> 00:17:33.117
years, in three years, the intuition

00:17:33.200 --> 00:17:34.877
will become stronger. And a lot of the

00:17:34.960 --> 00:17:38.237
things that we are talking about now,

00:17:38.320 --> 00:17:40.877
they will become much more real. They'll

00:17:40.960 --> 00:17:42.957
become less imaginary. In the end of the

00:17:43.040 --> 00:17:47.997
day, no amount of essays
and and explanations can

00:17:48.080 --> 00:17:49.917
can compete with what we see with our

00:17:50.000 --> 00:17:52.477
own senses, with our own two eyes. And

00:17:52.560 --> 00:17:55.357
especially with AI, the very smart,

00:17:55.440 --> 00:18:00.557
super intelligent AI in the future,
there will be very profound issues about

00:18:00.640 --> 00:18:04.717
making sure that they are they say what
they say and not pretend to be something

00:18:04.800 --> 00:18:07.357
else. And I'm really condensing a lot

00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:09.757
into a small amount of information here

00:18:09.840 --> 00:18:13.917
in time here. But overall by simply

00:18:14.000 --> 00:18:16.797
looking at what AI can do not ignoring

00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:19.437
it when the time comes that will

00:18:19.520 --> 00:18:23.917
generate the energy that's required to
overcome the huge challenge that AI will

00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:26.317
pose and the challenge that AI poses in

00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:29.197
some sense is the greatest challenge of

00:18:29.280 --> 00:18:33.117
humanity ever and

00:18:33.200 --> 00:18:35.197
overcoming it will also have the will

00:18:35.280 --> 00:18:37.757
also bring the greatest reward

00:18:37.840 --> 00:18:40.797
and in some sense whether you like it or

00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:45.437
not your life is going to be affected
by AI to a great extent and so looking at

00:18:45.520 --> 00:18:47.757
it paying attention and then generating

00:18:47.840 --> 00:18:50.237
the energy to solve the problems that

00:18:50.320 --> 00:18:54.880
will come up that's going to be the main