# Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: โ€œ50% of consultants, ... will be completely wiped out within 1โ€“5 years.โ€ *UninformedInvestors* ยท https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUfXp0-_N0w ## Summary Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei discusses how quickly AI capabilities have advanced, from a smart high school student two years ago to a smart college student today. He warns that entry-level white collar jobs in finance, consulting, tech and other fields may be augmented and then replaced by AI, potentially causing a serious employment crisis within one to five years. He argues we cannot stop AI development but may be able to steer it, and suggests education, worker adaptation, and possibly taxing AI companies as mitigations. ## Key points - Dario Amodei has worked on AI for 10 years and says progress has gone from a smart high school student level two years ago to a smart college student level now. - He believes AI skills could help cure diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's and provide cheaper energy. - The same skills threaten entry-level white collar work in finance, consulting, tech and many other areas, which he expects to be augmented and then replaced. - He would not be surprised to see big effects on employment somewhere between one and five years. - He says AI CEOs and other company CEOs discuss this in private, but the message has not reached ordinary people or legislators. - He argues we cannot stop the AI race because six or seven US companies are working on it and China would continue regardless. - Anthropic has released an economic index to track the rate at which these effects are happening. - Mitigations he mentions include educating people to use AI, helping workers adapt faster, and possibly taxing AI companies to level the economic playing field. ## Notes ### AI Progress and Its Dual Nature - Dario Amodei has worked on AI for 10 years and observes rapid progress: two years ago it was at the level of a smart high school student, now a smart college student and reaching beyond. - He sees positive potential: as a former biologist, he believes AI has the skills needed to cure diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's and provide cheaper energy. ### Threat to Entry-Level White Collar Work - The same skills (summarizing documents, brainstorming, putting together financial reports) worry him for entry-level jobs in finance, consulting, tech and many other areas. - He expects these jobs to be first augmented and before long replaced by AI systems. - The pipeline of early-stage white collar work may contract and dry up, potentially causing a serious employment crisis. ### Timeline and Why He Is Speaking Out - He would not be surprised if big effects appear somewhere between one and five years. - AI CEOs and other CEOs discuss this in private, but the message has not reached ordinary people or legislators, so he felt he needed to speak on the record. ### Can We Stop or Steer AI? - He does not think we can stop the AI bus: six or seven US companies work in this area, and even if they all stopped, China would continue. - But he believes we may have an opportunity to steer it, and the public, Congress and legislators need to start thinking about it seriously. - Anthropic has released an economic index to track the rate of these effects, and at some point measurement must give way to action, building AI that augments rather than replaces. ### Mitigations - Educating people to use AI and helping workers adapt faster. - Government action to level the economic playing field, including the possibly controversial idea of taxing AI companies like Anthropic. ## Transcript [00:00] So, just to back up a bit, I've been working on AI for uh for 10 years, and probably the thing I've noticed most about it is is how fast it's making progress. Two years ago, it was at the level of a smart high school student. Now, it's probably at the level of a smart college student and reaching beyond that. And on one hand, I think there's a number of very positive things that are going to happen. I used to be a biologist. I think AI has exactly the kind of skills that are needed to cure important diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's to provide cheaper energy many positive things but exactly those same kind of skills things like summarizing a document brainstorming putting together a financial report [00:40] makes me worry a lot that entry-level jobs in areas like finance consulting um tech uh many many other areas like that entry level white collar work. I worry that those things are going to be first augmented but before long replaced by AI systems and that we we we may indeed it's hard to predict the future but we may indeed have a have a serious employment crisis on our hands as the pipeline for for these the early stage white collar work starts to uh starts to contract and dry up. >> What's the timeline here? >> Yes. So it's very hard to predict these things given how fast um you know given how fast AI is making progress. Um but I would I would not be surprised if somewhere between one and five years um [01:28] we started to see big effects here. You know, I've heard a number of people talk about this in private. AI CEOs talk about this in private. CEOs of other companies talk about this in private. Um uh and I I really felt that uh you know the message that this is happening hasn't been getting out to to ordinary people, hasn't been getting out to our legislators, our Congress people either. And so I felt I needed to speak up on the record. I do think that this is something we can prevent this uh but but we need to act now. I don't think we can stop the AI bus. Um, you know, there are there are six or seven companies just in the US working in this air working in this area. I just run one of them. Even [02:09] if our company stopped doing what it was doing today, all the other companies would would continue. Even if all six companies started, then China would beat us. I think that's a big and important threat. So, we can't stop the bus. But I do think we may have an opportunity to steer it. And and I think you know we need to get congress people, legislators, the public to to think about this. Now one of the first steps we're taking is just measuring the effects. Enthropic has put out something that we call our economic index. And using the economic index, we try and track the rate at which these things are happening. You know, at some point we have to go beyond measuring this to actually taking action to trying to [02:46] build our AI systems in a way that augments rather than replaces. But that won't be a long-term solution either. We need to think about what what the government is going to do. And you know, there's a wide range of actions that that the government uh uh the government could take. And you know, it's it's not not my place to decide which of those are which of those are correct. But but I think the first step is people need to think about this and start taking it very seriously. >> Yeah. And you're talking about AI possibly wiping out all entrylevel white collar jobs and spiking unemployment to 10 to 20%. So dive into the mitigation of this a little bit more. How could we mitigate the worst possible scenario [03:25] here? >> Yeah. So it's hard to know the exact numbers. I mean, you know, I don't have a crystal ball. I can't I can't predict the future. But what I will say is I think what AI can do, you know, there have been these technological changes in the past, but I think what's different about AI is it's broader, it's deeper, and it's moving faster than than previous uh such technologies. And so in terms of mitigations, you know, I think I think one is just educating people in order in order to you in order to use AI. There will always be people who are who are who are using AI and helping our workers to adapt faster I think I think is an important move. A second move is that we may want we may want government [04:05] to you know to to to kind of to kind of find a way to level the economic playing field and you know this may be a controversial proposal but you know something like taxing AI companies like us we we may need to get >> and that's a very interesting message coming from you who runs an AI company. Uh but you're doing a public service announcement for all of us uh in terms of this future concern. andio, thank you.