1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,717
for a predictor of what the world
is going to be like going forward. Um I

2
00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:07,917
don't think you should trust me
for having good intuition of the rate of

3
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,597
change. Um it

4
00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:13,517
young people always figure this out the

5
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,957
best and the world you are all

6
00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,517
inheriting is going to be very different

7
00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,757
and you'll have to quickly develop your

8
00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,037
own intuitions and trust them. Um but I

9
00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,317
think the traditional career advice is

10
00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,717
probably not going to work as well >>
and computing. My question is what do

11
00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:36,797
you say to the workers who fear that
their jobs will be outdated in next 5

12
00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,637
years and what skills should
they be focusing on? Now

13
00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,517
>> anyone who says they're only excited or

14
00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,837
only fearful about AI is I think not
being very thoughtful. I don't think

15
00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:49,437
it's two camps. I think there's a

16
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,597
continuum of people based on whether

17
00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,877
you're 90% excited and 10% fearful or

18
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,717
90% fearful and 10% excited. But as with

19
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:03,757
any change of this magnitude happening
this quickly, um, and with this much

20
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:08,957
unknown, this much promise, this much
obvious peril, um, it's it you you have

21
00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,797
to be somewhere on that spectrum.
You can't it can't be sort of at at either

22
00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,117
end. Um,

23
00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,997
a big part of that is what the impact on

24
00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,357
jobs is going to be. And

25
00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:25,277
I will caveat this with lots of other
things by AI by saying that no one

26
00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:27,357
really knows, including us. There will

27
00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:30,797
be many surprises. Um, some jobs will

28
00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:35,277
totally go away. Many jobs will not

29
00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:40,717
change as much as it seems like they
should with AI because we have, you

30
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,877
know, we want someone else to be doing
that. we still go want a human doctor to

31
00:01:44,960 --> 00:01:46,957
tell us things even if the we know the

32
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,197
egg gives better advice or any many

33
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,077
other set of examples uh or you know

34
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,797
entrepreneurs will still start companies
they'll just grow faster and they'll do

35
00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:00,077
more and it'll be more
disruptive to existing jobs

36
00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,997
and then most of all

37
00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,757
every time in history that there's
been a major technological shift we have

38
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,117
underestimated how quickly
the new jobs are going to

39
00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:12,237
come and how different they were going

40
00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,477
to be it'd be very hard to think about

41
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,637
my job for example before computers
were invented um and impossible to think

42
00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:22,397
about my job before say the industrial

43
00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,917
revolution. Um, there are jobs now that

44
00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:27,917
are

45
00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:29,997
incredibly good jobs that didn't exist

46
00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,037
as a category 20 years ago even. If

47
00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,077
someone from 500 years ago could look at

48
00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,437
the jobs of the world today, um,

49
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,837
generally speaking, they would say about

50
00:02:41,920 --> 00:02:45,037
many of the jobs, um, certainly my job,

51
00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:49,517
you know, death's not a real job. You're
doing fine. You could, you don't have to

52
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,877
be working. You're like, you've got
plenty of food. you've got access to

53
00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,917
great shelter. Like this is this is not

54
00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,197
a job they could have imagined and it

55
00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,797
wouldn't look like real work. I hope

56
00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,717
100 years from now, not even 500,
we would all look at the jobs and be like,

57
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,717
"Those people are impossibly rich.
They have everything they could ever want.

58
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:13,037
They are making up ways to spend their
time to entertain themselves. It's a,

59
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,797
you know, it's a player of game style
existence. They don't really need this."

60
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,517
Um, and

61
00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,397
that is sort of the history of society

62
00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:27,117
building up more collective
welfare for each other.

63
00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,797
Uh, and I think that's great, but we never

64
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,317
run out of things to do. We have never
gotten to the sort of like thing that

65
00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,837
people have theorized for for centuries
now, which is technology is going to

66
00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,117
progress so much that we just sit around
and do nothing. We find new things to

67
00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,797
do. We find new ways to express
our creativity. Um, we find new ways to be

68
00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:46,317
useful to each other. you find new ways

69
00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,877
to, you know, gain status or whatever,

70
00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,837
whatever it is. Uh,

71
00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:56,717
many of you will eventually do jobs
that don't exist today, even really as a

72
00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,237
concept. It doesn't mean
that the transition is

73
00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:02,397
not painful. I expect for many people it

74
00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,437
will be very painful. Um,

75
00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,717
as society gets richer quickly, I hope

76
00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:13,997
we find new socioeconomic models to make
it less painful. But I'm less worried

77
00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,437
about the long-term future. And I think
we'll find new things to do in in not

78
00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,917
very long. >> So my question is,
what is the biggest

79
00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:21,837
mistake you see young people make right

80
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:26,477
now when they apparently prepare for AI?

81
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:27,917
>> Man, I'm going to answer this. I hope

82
00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,437
this talk is not recorded. Uh,

83
00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:38,200
I think listening to old people
is the biggest mistake young people make.

84
00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,837
I >> I think your your
parents obviously love

85
00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,877
you more than anyone.
They're extremely well-meaning.

86
00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,357
um for advice about how to live a happy

87
00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,837
life or how to be a a good person, there

88
00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,397
is no one you should listen to

89
00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,557
more than your parents. Um but

90
00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,117
for a predictor of what the world
is going to be like going forward, um I

91
00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,317
don't think you should trust me
for having good intuition of the rate of

92
00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,997
change. Um it

93
00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:09,917
young people always figure this out the

94
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,357
best and the world you are all

95
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:15,917
inheriting is going to be very different

96
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,157
and you'll have to quickly develop your

97
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,437
own intuitions and trust them. Um but I

98
00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,717
think the traditional career advice is

99
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,727
probably not going to work as well.

100
00:05:28,810 --> 00:05:30,830
[music]

101
00:05:34,710 --> 00:05:36,730
>> [music]