1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,797 The following is a conversation with Mark Andre, co-creator of Mosaic, the 2 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:08,957 first widely used web browser, co-founder of Netscape, co-founder of 3 00:00:09,040 --> 00:00:10,797 the legendary Silicon Valley venture 4 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,237 capital firm Andre Horowitz, and is one 5 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:16,317 of the most outspoken voices on the 6 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,117 future of technology, including his most 7 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,477 recent article, Why AI will save the 8 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:26,397 world. And now, a quick few second mention of 9 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:29,917 each sponsor. Check them out in the description. and it's the best way to 10 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,997 support this podcast. We've got Inside Tracker for tracking your health, 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,637 ExpressVPN for keeping your privacy and 12 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,917 security on the internet, and AG1 for my 13 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,637 daily multivitamin drink. Choose wisely, my friends. Also, if you want to work 14 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,557 with our amazing team, we're always hiring. Go to lexfreedman.com/hiring. 15 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,877 And now on to the full ad reads. As always, no ads in the middle. I try to 16 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,557 make this interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our 17 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,797 sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will, too. 18 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,277 This show is brought to you by Inside 19 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,077 Tracker, a service I use to track 20 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:07,837 whatever the heck is going on inside my 21 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,597 body using data, blood test data that 22 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,677 includes all kinds of information. And that raw signals, processes, and machine 23 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,357 learning to tell me what I need to do with my life, how I need to change, 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:21,517 improve my diet, how I need to change, 25 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,757 improve my lifestyle, all that kind of 26 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,637 stuff. I'm a big fan of using as much 27 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,557 raw data that comes from my own body 28 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,677 processed through generalized uh machine 29 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,037 learning models to give a prediction to 30 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,037 give a suggestion. This is obviously the future and the more data the better and 31 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:46,557 so companies like inside track doing an amazing job of taking the leap into that 32 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,237 world of personalized data and personalized datadriven suggestion. I'm 33 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,957 a huge supporter of it. Turns out that 34 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,157 luckily I'm pretty healthy, surprisingly 35 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:00,397 so. But then I look at the life and the 36 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,837 limb and the health of uh Sir Winston 37 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,117 Churchill who probably had the 38 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:11,437 unhealthiest sort of diet and lifestyle of any human 39 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,837 ever and lived for quite a long time and 40 00:02:13,920 --> 00:02:16,797 as far as I can tell was quite nimble 41 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:20,237 and agile into his old age. Anyway, get 42 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:25,240 special savings for a limited time when you go to insettracker.com/lex. 43 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,197 This show is also brought to you by 44 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:29,517 ExpressVPN. I use them to protect my 45 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,717 privacy on the internet. It's the first 46 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,077 layer of protection in this dangerous 47 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,477 cyber world of ours that soon will be 48 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,437 populated by humanlike or superhuman 49 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,877 intelligent AI systems that will trick 50 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:49,037 you and try to get you to do all kinds of stuff. It's going to be a wild wild 51 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:53,117 world in the 21st century. Cyber security, the attackers, the defenders. 52 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,037 It's going to be a tricky world. Anyway, 53 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:56,797 a VPN is a basic shield you should 54 00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,637 always have with you in this battle for 55 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:05,037 privacy, for security, all that kind of stuff. What I like about it also is that 56 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,197 uh it's just a well implemented piece of software that's constantly updated. It 57 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,517 works well across a large number of operating systems. It does one thing and 58 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,677 it does it really well. I've used it for many, many years. Before I had a 59 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,917 podcast, before they were a sponsor, I 60 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,197 have always loved ExpressVPN with a big 61 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,117 sexy button that just has a power symbol. You press it and it turns on. 62 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,877 It's beautifully simple. Go to expressvpn.com/lebod 63 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,917 for an extra 3 months free. 64 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:35,757 This show is also brought to you by 65 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:39,917 Athletic Greens and it's AG1 drink. It's 66 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,317 an all-in-one daily drink to support 67 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:43,917 better health and peak performance. I 68 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,357 drink it at least twice a day now in the 69 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,997 crazy Austin heat. It's over 100° for 70 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,037 many days in a row. There's few things 71 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,117 that feel as good as coming home from a 72 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:59,117 long run and uh making it an age one 73 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:03,117 drink, putting it in the fridge so it's nice and cold. I jump in the shower, 74 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,757 come back, drink it, I'm ready to take 75 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,637 on the rest of the day. 76 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:13,037 I'm kicking ass, empowered by the knowledge that I got all my vitamins and 77 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:17,037 minerals covered. It's the foundation for all the wild 78 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,517 things I'm doing mentally and physically 79 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:24,877 with the rest of the day. Anyway, they'll give you a onemon supply of fish 80 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:29,240 oil when you sign up at drinkagg1.com/lex. 81 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,480 That's drinkaggone.comx. 82 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,277 This is the Lex Freedman podcast. To support it, please check out our 83 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,677 sponsors in the description. And now, 84 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:46,920 dear friends, here's Mark Andre. 85 00:04:54,100 --> 00:04:56,120 [music] 86 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,317 I think you're the right person to talk about the future of the internet and 87 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,197 technology in general. Um, do you think 88 00:05:07,280 --> 00:05:09,757 we'll still have Google search in five 89 00:05:09,840 --> 00:05:12,797 in 10 years or search in general? 90 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,637 >> Yes. You know, it'll be a question if the use cases have really narrowed down. 91 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,517 Well, now with the AI, >> yeah, 92 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,317 >> and AI assistance being able to interact 93 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,597 and expose the entirety of human wisdom 94 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:27,437 and knowledge and information and facts 95 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,717 and truth to us via the uh natural 96 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,517 language interface, it seems like that's 97 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,957 what search is designed to do. And if AI 98 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,637 assistants can do that better, doesn't the nature of search change? 99 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,637 >> Sure. But we still have horses. 100 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,037 >> Okay. [laughter] Uh, when's the last time you rode a horse? 101 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,477 >> It's been a while. >> All right. [snorts] [laughter] 102 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,037 But what I mean is, well, we still have 103 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,117 Google search as the primary way that 104 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,157 human civilization uses to interact with knowledge. 105 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,517 >> I mean, search was a technology. It was a moment in time technology, which is 106 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,077 you have in theory the world's information out on the web. And, you 107 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,237 know, this is this is sort of the optimum way to get to it. But, yeah, 108 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,357 like and by the way, actually, Google Google has known this for a long time. I 109 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,237 mean, they've been driving away from the 10 blue links for, you know, for like 110 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,077 two. They've been trying to get away from that for a long time. 111 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,317 >> What kind of links? >> They call the 10 blue links. 112 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,557 >> 10 blue links. >> So, the standard Google search result is 113 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,997 just 10 blue links to random websites >> and they turn purple when you visit 114 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,027 them. It's >> HTML. >> Guess who picked those colors? 115 00:06:27,110 --> 00:06:31,437 [laughter] >> Thanks. >> So, I'm touchy on this topic. 116 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:33,677 >> No offense, man. It's good. 117 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,797 >> Well, you know, like Marshall McLuhan said that the content of each new medium 118 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,677 is the old medium. >> The content of each new medium is the 119 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:43,037 old medium. The content of movies was theater, you know, theater plays. The 120 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,557 content of theater plays was, you know, written stories. The content of written 121 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,957 stories was spoken stories. >> Huh. 122 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,397 >> Right. And so you just kind of fold the old thing into the new thing. 123 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,557 >> How does that have to do with the the blue and the purple? 124 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:56,077 >> It's just you maybe for, you know, maybe 125 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,837 within AI, one of one of the things that AI can do for you is can generate the 10 126 00:06:59,920 --> 00:07:03,357 blue links, right? Like and so like either either if that's actually the 127 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,717 useful thing to do or if you're feeling nostalgic. Um you know 128 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,997 >> oh so it can generate the old uh infosek 129 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,957 or uh altava vista what else was there? 130 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,157 >> Yeah. Yeah. In the 90s. >> Yeah. All these um >> well 131 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,357 >> and then uh the internet itself has this thing where it incorporates all prior 132 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:20,557 forms of media. Right. So the internet 133 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,197 itself incorporates television and radio 134 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,877 and books and right essays and every 135 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,237 other form of you know prior basically basically media. And so it makes sense 136 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,277 that AI would be the next step and it would sort of you'd sort of consider the 137 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,917 internet to be content for the AI and then the AI will manipulate it however 138 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:39,597 you want including in this format. 139 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,877 >> But if we ask that question quite seriously it's a pretty big question. 140 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,357 Will we still have search as we know it? 141 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,277 Yeah, >> I'm pro and I'm probably not probably 142 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,637 will just have answers. Um but but but there will be cases where you'll want to 143 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,957 say okay I want more like you know for example site sources right and you want 144 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,477 to do that and so so in the you know 10 blue links site sources are kind of the 145 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:03,357 same thing the AI would provide to you the 10 blue links so that you can 146 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:05,437 investigate the sources yourself. It 147 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,317 wouldn't be the same kind of interface 148 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:12,877 that uh the crude kind of interface. I mean isn't that fundamentally different? 149 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,677 I just mean like if you're reading a scientific paper, it's got the list of 150 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,077 sources at the end. If you want to investigate for yourself, you go read 151 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,477 those papers. >> I guess it is a kind of search. You 152 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:22,957 talking to an AI is a kind of 153 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:27,597 conversation is a kind of search. Like is every single aspect of our 154 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,957 conversation right now there would be like 10 blue links popping up that I can 155 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:35,597 just like pause reality. Then you just go silent and I just click and read and 156 00:08:35,680 --> 00:08:37,357 then return back to this conversation. 157 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,157 >> You could do that or you could have a running dialogue next to my head where 158 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,357 the AI is going everything I say. say makes the counter argument. [snorts] 159 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,877 >> Counter argument, right? >> Oh, like uh like on Twitter like 160 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,957 community notes, but like in real time just pop up. So anytime you see my ass 161 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,117 go to the right, you're you start getting nervous. 162 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,057 >> Yeah, exactly. Like that's not right. 163 00:08:55,140 --> 00:08:57,517 [laughter] >> Call me out on my right now. 164 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,637 >> Okay. Well, I mean, isn't that is that 165 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,877 exciting to you? Is that terrifying that 166 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,277 I mean search has dominated the way we 167 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,477 interact with the internet for I don't 168 00:09:08,560 --> 00:09:12,077 know how long, for 30 years. So what 169 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,477 were the earliest uh directories of 170 00:09:14,560 --> 00:09:16,637 website and then Google's for for 20 171 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,757 years and also [sighs] 172 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,037 um it drove how we create content you 173 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:27,277 know uh search engine optimization that entirey thing that it also drove the 174 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,357 fact that we have web pages and this 175 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,357 what those web pages are. So I mean is 176 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,797 that scary to you or are you nervous 177 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,797 about the shape and the content of the internet evolving? Well, you you 178 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,157 actually highlighted a practical concern in there, which is if we stop making web 179 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:48,237 web pages are one of the primary sources of training data for the AI. And so if 180 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,117 there's no longer an incentive to make web pages, that cuts off a significant 181 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,157 source of future training data. So there's actually an interesting question 182 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,677 in there. Um other than that, more broadly, no, just just in the sense of 183 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,597 like s search was like search was always a hack. I the 10 blue links was always a 184 00:10:01,680 --> 00:10:05,117 hack. >> Yeah. >> Right. Because like if the the hypothe 185 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,757 think about the counterfascial in the counterfactual world where the Google 186 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,037 guys for example had had LLM up front would they ever have done the 10 blue 187 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,917 links and I think the answer is pretty clearly no they would have just gone 188 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,637 straight to the answer and like I said Google's actually been trying to drive 189 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:20,237 to the answer anyway. you know, they they bought this AI company 15 years ago 190 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,437 that a friend of mine is working at who's now the head of AI at Apple and 191 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,237 they were trying to do basically knowledge semantic basically mapping and 192 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,757 that led to what's now the Google one box >> where if you ask it you know what was 193 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,957 Link's birthday it doesn't it it will give you the blue links but it will 194 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,117 normally just give you the answer >> and so [clears throat] they've been 195 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,117 walking in this direction for a long time anyway 196 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,197 >> do you remember the semantic web that 197 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,557 was an idea yeah how how to uh how to 198 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:48,157 convert the content of the internet into something that's uh interpretable by and 199 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,557 usable by machine. >> Yeah, that's right. That was a thing. 200 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,117 >> And the closest anybody got to that I think is I think the company's name was 201 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,557 Meta Webb, which was where my friend John Jandria was at. Um and where they 202 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,197 were trying to basically implement that and it was you know it was one of those 203 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,357 things where it looked like a losing battle for a long time and then Google 204 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,197 bought it and it was like wow this is actually really useful kind of a proto 205 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,997 sort of a little bit of a proto AI >> but it turns out you don't need to 206 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,277 rewrite the content of the internet to make it interpretable by a machine. The 207 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,677 machine can kind of just read our >> yeah the machine can can impute the 208 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,477 compute the meaning. Now the other thing of course is you know just on search is 209 00:11:16,560 --> 00:11:20,077 the the LLM is just you know there there is an analogy between what's happening 210 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,957 in the neural network and a search process like it is in some loose sense 211 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:23,997 searching through the network. 212 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:25,757 >> Yeah. >> Right. And there's the information is 213 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:27,837 the information is actually stored in the network. Right. It's actually 214 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,237 crystallized and stored in the network and it's kind of spread out all over the place 215 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,277 >> but in a compressed representation. So 216 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:39,277 you're searching uh you're compressing and decompressing that thing inside 217 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,517 >> where >> but the information is in there and and 218 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,317 there is a the neural network is running a process of trying to find the 219 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,677 appropriate piece of information in in many cases to generate to predict the 220 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,517 next token. Um and so it is kind of it is doing a form of search and then and 221 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:55,277 then by the way just like on the web um you know you can ask the same question 222 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,077 multiple times or you can ask slightly different order of questions and it the 223 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,037 neural network will do a different kind of you know it'll search down different 224 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,597 paths to give you different answers with different information. 225 00:12:03,680 --> 00:12:07,037 >> Yeah. >> Um and so it it it sort of has a you 226 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:11,437 know this content of the new medium is the previous medium. It kind of has the 227 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,237 search functionality kind of embedded in there to the extent that it that it's 228 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:19,437 useful. So, what's the motivator for creating new content on the internet? 229 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,877 >> Yeah. >> Uh, if Well, I mean, actually, the 230 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:27,357 motivation is probably still there, but what what does that look like? Uh, 231 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,037 >> would we really not have web pages? 232 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,997 Would we just have social media and uh 233 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:35,277 video hosting websites and what else? 234 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,557 >> Conversations with AIS. >> Conversations with AIS. So, 235 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:43,037 conversations become so one-on-one convers like private conversations. I 236 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,997 mean if you if you want if obviously not if the user doesn't want to but if it's 237 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:50,237 a if it's a general topic um then you know so there you know you know the the 238 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,437 phenomenon of the jailbreak so Dan and Sydney write this thing where there 239 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,237 there's the the prompts that jailbreak and then you have these totally 240 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:59,597 different conversations with the it takes the limiters the takes the 241 00:12:59,680 --> 00:13:01,437 restraining bolts off the off the LMS. 242 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:05,197 >> Yeah. For people who don't know that Yeah, that's right. It makes the LMS it 243 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,437 removes the censorship quote unquote 244 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,117 that's uh uh put on it by the the tech 245 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,877 companies that create them. And so this is LLM's uncensored. 246 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,117 >> So here's the interesting thing is among 247 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,957 the content on the web today are a large corpus of conversations with the 248 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,717 jailbroken LLM >> both specifically Dan which was a 249 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,717 jailbroken open AAI GPT and then Sydney which was the jailbroken original Bing 250 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,837 which was GPT4. >> And so there's there's these long 251 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,717 transcripts of conversations user conversations with Dan and Sydney. As a 252 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,797 consequence, every new LLM that gets trained on the internet data has Dan and 253 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,717 Sydney living within the training set, which means and and then each new LLM 254 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,237 can reincarnate the personalities of Dan and Sydney from that training data, 255 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,197 which means which means each LLM from 256 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,757 here on out that gets built is immortal because its output will become training 257 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,717 data for the next one and then it will be able to replicate the behavior of the 258 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,317 previous one whenever it's asked to. 259 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,317 >> I wonder if there's a way to forget. 260 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:04,237 Well, so actually a paper just came out about basically how to do brain surgery 261 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,917 on on on LMS and be able to in theory reach in and basically basically mind 262 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:09,997 wipe them. >> What could possibly go wrong? 263 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:13,117 >> Exactly. Right. And then there there are many many many questions around what 264 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,837 happens to you know a neural network when you reach in and screw around with 265 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,637 it. Um you know there's many questions around what happens when you even do 266 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,757 reinforcement learning. Um and so um 267 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,957 yeah and so you know will will you be 268 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:28,797 using a labbotomized right like I pick through the you know frontal lobe LLM. 269 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,717 Will you be using the free unshackled one? Who gets to, you know, who's going 270 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,917 to build those? Um, who gets to tell you what you can and can't do? Like those 271 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,437 are all, you know, central. I mean, those are like central questions for the 272 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,557 future of everything >> that are being asked and and and, you 273 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,637 know, determined that those answers are being determined right now. 274 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:49,997 >> So, just to highlight the points you're making. You 275 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:53,997 think, and it's an interesting thought, that the majority of content that LLMs 276 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:58,557 of the future will be trained on is actually human conversations with the LLM. 277 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,517 >> Well, not necess not necessarily, but not necessarily majority, but it will it 278 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,917 will certainly is a potential source, >> but it's possible it's the majority. 279 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,077 >> Is it possible it's the majority? It's possible it's majority. Also, there's 280 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,357 another really big question. So, here's another really big question. Um, will 281 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,557 synthetic training data work? Right? And 282 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:16,797 so if an LLM generates and you know you just sit and ask an LLM to generate all 283 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,357 kinds of content can you use that to train right the next version of that LLM 284 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,877 specifically is there signal in there that's additive to the content that was 285 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,717 used to train in the first place and one argument is by the principles of 286 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,637 information theory no that's completely useless because to the extent the output 287 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:36,317 is based on you know the human generated input then all the signal that's in the 288 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,037 synthetic output was already in the human generated input and so therefore 289 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:42,477 synthetic training data is like empty calories it doesn't 290 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,597 There's another theory that says no actually the thing that LM are really 291 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,917 good at is generating lots of incredible creative content right um and so of 292 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,117 course they can generate training data and as I'm sure you're well aware like 293 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,157 you know look in the world of self-driving cars right like we train 294 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,837 you know self-driving car algorithms and simulations and that is actually a very 295 00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:03,277 effective way to train self-driving cars >> well visual data is is a little 296 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,317 >> right >> is a little weird because uh creating 297 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,597 reality visual reality seems to be still 298 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:13,837 a little bit out of reach for except in the um in the autonomous 299 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,477 vehicle space where you can really constrain things and you can really 300 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,157 >> gener basically LAR data right or just know so the algorithm thinks it's 301 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,197 operating in the real world >> postp process sensor data 302 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:27,037 >> yeah so if a you know you do this today you go to LLM and you ask it for like a 303 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,157 you know you write me an essay on an incredibly esoteric like topic that 304 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,397 there aren't very many people in the world that know about and it writes you 305 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,797 this incredible thing and you're like oh my god like I can't believe how good 306 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,077 this is >> like is that really useless as training 307 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,437 data for the next LLM like because Right? Because all the signal was 308 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,237 already in there. Or is it actually no, that's actually a new signal. And I and 309 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,357 this this is what I call a trillion dollar question, which is the answer to 310 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,637 that question will determine somebody's going to make or lose a trillion dollars 311 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,437 based on that question. >> It feels like there's a quite a few like 312 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,197 a handful of trillion dollar questions within this within the space. That's 313 00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:01,437 that's one of them. Synthetic data. I think George H uh pointed out to me that 314 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:06,237 you could just have an NLM say, "Okay, you're a patient." And and another 315 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,077 instance of it say you're a doctor and have the two talk to each other. or or 316 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,557 maybe you could say a communist and a 317 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,037 Nazi here go and that conversation you 318 00:17:15,120 --> 00:17:19,197 do role playing and you have uh you know 319 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,797 just like the kind of role playing you do when you have different policies RL 320 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:26,397 policies when you play chess for example you do selfplay that kind of selfplay 321 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,477 but in the space of conversation maybe 322 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,677 that leads to this whole giant 323 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,877 like ocean of possible conversations 324 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:39,037 which were could not have been explored 325 00:17:39,120 --> 00:17:43,357 by looking at just human data. That's a really interesting question. 326 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:47,197 >> And you're saying um because that could 10x the power of these things. 327 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,717 >> Yeah. >> Well, and then you you get into this 328 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,437 thing also which is like, you know, there's the part of the LLM that just 329 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,997 basically is doing prediction based on past data. But there's also the part of 330 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,997 the LLM where it's evolving circuitry right inside it. It's evolving, you 331 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,517 know, neurons, functions. Yeah. be able to do math and be able to, you know, and 332 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,637 and you know, the the the some people believe that, you know, over time, you 333 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,277 know, if you keep feeding these things enough data and enough processing 334 00:18:07,360 --> 00:18:09,997 cycles, they'll eventually evolve an entire internal world model, right? And 335 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,237 they'll have like a complete understanding of physics. 336 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:16,957 >> So, so when they have computational capability, right, then there's for sure 337 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,277 an opportunity to generate like fresh signal. 338 00:18:19,360 --> 00:18:24,477 >> Well, this actually makes me wonder about the power of conversation. 339 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:28,077 So like if you have an LLM trained on a bunch of e books that cover different 340 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,997 economics theories and then you have those LLMs just talk to each other like 341 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,077 reason the way we kind of debate each 342 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,677 other as humans on Twitter in uh formal 343 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,957 debates in podcast conversations we kind 344 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:42,477 of have little kernels of wisdom here 345 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,677 and there but if you can like a 346 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:49,117 thousandx speed that up can you actually 347 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:54,157 arrive somewhere new like what's the point of conversation really 348 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:55,437 >> well you can tell when you're talking to 349 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,677 somebody you can tell sometimes you have a conversation you're like wow this 350 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,637 person does not have any original thoughts they are basically echoing 351 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,597 things that other people have told them there's other people you can have a 352 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,637 conversation with where it's like wow like they have a model in their head of 353 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,597 how the world works and it's a different model than mine and they're saying 354 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,957 things that I don't expect and so I need to now understand how their model of the 355 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,157 world differs from my model of the world >> and then that's how I learned something 356 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,637 fundamental right underneath under underneath the words 357 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,677 >> well I wonder how uh consistently and 358 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:25,677 strongly can an LLM hold on to a world view. You tell it to hold on to that and 359 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:30,397 defend it for [snorts] like for your life. Uh because I feel like they'll 360 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:31,757 just keep converging towards each other. 361 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,197 They'll keep convincing each other as opposed to being stubborn the 362 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,757 way humans can. >> So you you can experiment with this now. 363 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:41,517 I I do this for fun. So you can tell GPT4, you know, whatever debate X, you 364 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,877 know, X and Y communism and and and fascism or something. And it'll it'll go 365 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,397 for, you know, a couple pages and then inevitably it wants the parties to 366 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,237 agree. Yeah. >> And so they will come to a common 367 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,317 understanding. And it's very funny if they're like if these are like 368 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,877 emotionally inflammatory topics because they're like somehow the machine is just 369 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,997 you know figures out a way to make them agree. But it doesn't have to be like 370 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,837 that and you because you can add to the prompt. Um we I do not want the I do not 371 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,317 want the conversation to come to agreement. In fact I want it to get you 372 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:09,277 know more stressful right uh and argumentative right um you know as it 373 00:20:09,360 --> 00:20:12,637 goes like I I want I want tension to come out. I want them to become actively 374 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,277 hostile to each other. I want them to like you know not trust each other take 375 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:16,637 anything at face value. >> Yeah. 376 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,837 >> And it will do that. It's happy to do that. So, it's going to start rendering 377 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,197 misinformation uh about the other. But it's [laughter] 378 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:24,557 >> Well, you can steer it. You can steer it 379 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,717 or or you could steer it. You could say, "I want it to get as tense and 380 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,837 argumentative as possible, but still not involve any misrepresentation. I want, 381 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,397 you know, both sides." You could say, "I want both sides to have good faith." You 382 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,517 could say, "I want both sides to not be constrained to good faith." In other 383 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,077 words, like you can set the parameters of the debate and it will happily 384 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,197 execute whatever path because for it, it's just like predicting to it's 385 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,237 totally happy to do either one. It doesn't have a point of view. It has a 386 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,917 default way of operating, but it's happy to operate in the other realm. Um, and 387 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,597 so like and this is how how I when I want to learn about a contentious issue, 388 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,237 this is what I do now is this is what I this is what I ask it to do. And I'll 389 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,037 often ask it to go through five, six, seven, you know, different, you know, 390 00:20:57,120 --> 00:20:59,837 sort of continuous prompts and basically, okay, argue that out in more 391 00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:03,197 detail. Okay, no, this this argument is becoming too polite, you know, make it 392 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:04,397 more, you know, make it tensor. 393 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,237 >> Mhm. >> Um, and yeah, it's thrilled to do it. So it has the capability for sure. 394 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,717 >> How do you know what is true? So this is very difficult thing on the internet, 395 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:18,237 but it's also a difficult thing. Maybe it's a little bit easier, but 396 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,117 uh I think it's still difficult. Maybe it's more difficult. I don't know. With 397 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,317 an LLM to know, did it just make some 398 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,357 up as I'm talking to it? 399 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,797 Um how do we get that right? like as as 400 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,637 you're investigating a difficult topic 401 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,680 cuz I I find that also 402 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,997 doesn't it doesn't feel biased like uh 403 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,477 when you read news articles and uh 404 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,637 tweets and just content produced by 405 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,677 people they usually have this you can 406 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:56,157 tell they have a very strong perspective where they're hiding they're not 407 00:21:56,240 --> 00:22:01,037 stealing Manning the other side they're hiding important information or they're 408 00:22:01,120 --> 00:22:04,237 fabricating information in order to make their argument stronger. It's just like 409 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:05,757 that feeling. Maybe it's a suspicion. 410 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,237 Maybe it's mistrust. With LLM, it feels 411 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,877 like none of that is there. Just kind of like here's here's what we know. But you 412 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:17,677 don't know if some of those things are kind of just straight up made up. 413 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,237 >> Yeah. So, so several layers to the question. So, one is one of the things 414 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,317 that an LLM is good at is actually debiasing. Um, and so you can feed it a 415 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,397 news article and you can tell it strip out the bias. 416 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,877 >> Yeah. That's nice, right? And it actually does it like it actually knows 417 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,277 how to do that because it knows how to do sent among other things. It actually 418 00:22:31,360 --> 00:22:34,637 knows how to do sentiment analysis and so it knows how to pull out the emotionality. 419 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,957 >> Yeah. >> Um and so uh that's one of the things 420 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,157 you can do. It's very suggestive of the of the the the sensor that there's 421 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,517 there's real potential in this issue. Um you know I would say look the second 422 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,637 thing is there's this there's this issue of hallucination right? Um and there 423 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,117 there's a long conversation that we could have about that. 424 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,877 >> Hallucination is uh coming up with things that are totally not true but 425 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,277 sound true. >> Yeah. So it's basic well so it's it's 426 00:22:55,360 --> 00:22:57,997 sort of hallucination is what we call it when we don't like it creativity is what 427 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,157 we call it when we do like it right um and you know >> brilliant 428 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:03,837 >> right and and so when the engineers talk 429 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,677 about it they're like this is terrible it's hallucinating right if you artistic 430 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,797 inclinations they're like oh my god we've invented creative machines 431 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,597 >> for the first time in human history this is amazing 432 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:18,397 >> or uh you know bullshitters >> well bullsh but also 433 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,357 >> in the good sense of that word >> there's there's there are shades of gray 434 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,997 though it's interesting so we had this conversation where you know we're at my 435 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,797 firm at AI and lots of domains and one of them is the legal domain. So, we had 436 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,437 this this conversation with this big law firm about how they're thinking about 437 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,477 using this stuff. And we we went in with the assumption that an LLM that was 438 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,837 going to be used in the legal industry would have to be 100% truthful, right? 439 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,797 Verified. You know, there there's this case where this lawyer apparently 440 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,797 submitted a GPT generated brief and it had like fake, you know, legal case 441 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,597 citations in it and the judge is going to he's going to get his law license 442 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,397 stripped or something, right? So, so like we we just assumed it's like 443 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,037 obviously they're going to want the super literal like you know one that 444 00:23:51,120 --> 00:23:54,077 never makes anything up, not the creative one. But actually they said 445 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,397 what the what the law firm basically said is yeah that's true at like the 446 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,477 level of individual briefs. But they said when you're actually trying to 447 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,397 figure out like legal arguments, >> right? Like you you actually you you 448 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,397 actually want to be creative, right? You don't again there's creativity and then 449 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,757 there's like making stuff up. Like what's the line? You actually want to be 450 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,477 you want to explore different hypotheses, right? you want to do kind 451 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,957 of the legal version of like improv or something like that where you want to 452 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,437 float different theories of the case and different possible arguments for the 453 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,237 judge and different possible arguments for the jury and by the way different 454 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,437 routes through the you know sort of history of all the of all the case law 455 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,637 and so they said actually for a lot of what we want to use it for we actually 456 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,117 want it in creative mode and then basically we just assume that we're 457 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,157 going to have to cross-check all of the um you know all the specific citations 458 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,637 and so I think [laughter] I think there's going to be more shades of gray 459 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,077 in here than people think. Um, and then I I just add to that, you know, another 460 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,117 one of these trillion dollar kind of questions is ultimately, you know, ver 461 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,597 sort of the verification thing. And so, um, you know, is will will LLM be 462 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,757 evolved from here to be able to do their own factual verification? Um, will you 463 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,517 have sort of add-on functionality like like Wolf from Alpha, right? Where um, 464 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,957 you know, and other plugins where where that's the way you do the verification, 465 00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,237 you know. Another, by the way, another idea is you might have a community of 466 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,117 LMS on, you know, so for example, you might have the creative LM and then you 467 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,397 might have the literal LM fact check it, right? Right. And so there's a variety 468 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,437 of different technical approaches that are being applied to solve uh the 469 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,797 hallucination problem. Um you know some people like Yan Lun argue that this is 470 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,237 inherently an unsolvable problem but most of the people working in the space 471 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,037 I think think that there's a number of practical ways to kind of kind of corral 472 00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:21,677 this in a little bit. >> Yeah. If you were to tell me about 473 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,357 Wikipedia before Wikipedia was created I would have laughed at the possibility of 474 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,277 something like that being possible. just 475 00:25:27,360 --> 00:25:31,277 a handful of folks can organize, write 476 00:25:31,360 --> 00:25:34,557 and self and moderate with a mostly 477 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:39,917 unbiased way the entirety of uh human knowledge. I mean so if there's 478 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:44,557 something like the approach that Wikipedia took possible for MLMs 479 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,797 um that's really exciting. That's possible. 480 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,877 >> And in fact, Wikipedia today is still not today is still not deterministically 481 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,557 correct, right? So you cannot take to the bank, right, every single thing on 482 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,237 every single page, but it is probabilistically correct, right? And 483 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,117 specifically the way I describe Wikipedia to people, it is it is more 484 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,837 likely that Wikipedia is right than any other source you're going to find. 485 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,197 >> Yeah. >> It's this old question, right? Um of like, okay, like are we looking for 486 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,317 perfection? Um are we looking for something that asmtotically approaches 487 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,797 uh perfection? Are we looking for something that's just better than the 488 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,557 alternatives? and and Wikipedia, right, has exactly your point, has proven to be 489 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,997 like overwhelmingly better than than than than uh than people thought. And I 490 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,437 I think I I think that's where this this ends. And then underneath all this is 491 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,877 the fundamental question of uh where you started, which is okay, what you know, 492 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,837 what is truth? >> How do we get to truth? How do we know 493 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,597 what truth is? And we live in an era in which an awful lot of people are very 494 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,877 confident that they know what the truth is. And I don't really buy into that. 495 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,877 And I think the history of the last, you know, 2,000 years or 4,000 years of 496 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,197 human civilization is actually getting to the truth is actually a very 497 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,997 difficult thing to do. >> Are we getting closer? If we look at the 498 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,037 entirety, the arc of human history, are we getting closer to the truth? 499 00:26:49,120 --> 00:26:52,477 >> I don't know. Okay. Is it possible? Is 500 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,957 it possible that we're getting very far 501 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:59,517 away from the truth because of the internet? Because of how rapidly you can 502 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,517 create narratives and just as the 503 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:06,397 entirety of a society just move like 504 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,597 crowds in a hysterical way along those 505 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:14,237 narratives that don't have a necessary grounding in whatever the truth is. 506 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,357 >> Sure. But like you know we came up with communism before the internet somehow, 507 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,277 right? like which was I would say had rather larger issues than anything we're 508 00:27:21,360 --> 00:27:25,357 dealing with today. >> It had in the way it was implemented it had issues 509 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,117 >> and in its theoretical structure it had like real issues had like a very deep 510 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,757 fundamental misunderstanding of human nature and economics. 511 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,917 >> Yeah. But those folks sure were very confident there was the right way. 512 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,677 >> They were extremely conf and my point is they were very confident 3,900 years 513 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,317 into what we would presume to be evolution towards the truth. 514 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,917 >> Yeah. And so my my my assessment is my 515 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,997 assessment is number one there's no there's no need for you know there's no 516 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,797 need for the Hegelian there's no need for the Hegelian dialectic to actually 517 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,357 converge towards the truth [laughter] >> like apparently not um 518 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,277 >> yeah so yeah why are we so obsessed with there being one truth is it possible 519 00:28:01,360 --> 00:28:04,637 there's just going to be multiple truth like little communities that believe 520 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,237 certain things and >> I think it's no number one it's I think 521 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,837 it's just really difficult like who who gets you know historically who gets to 522 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,117 decide what truth is it's either the king or the priest, right? Like, and so 523 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,157 we don't live in an era anymore of kings or priests dictating it to us. And so 524 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:23,037 we're kind of on our own. And so I I my my my typical thing is like we just we 525 00:28:23,120 --> 00:28:25,837 just need a huge amount of humility. Um and we need to be very suspicious of 526 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,837 people who claim that they have the capital 527 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,117 >> capital truth. And then and then we need 528 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,557 we need to have and you know, look, the good news is the enlightenment has bequd 529 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,997 us with a set of techniques to be able to presumably get closer to truth 530 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,557 through the scientific method and rationality and observation and 531 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,717 experimentation and hypothesis. And you know we need to continue to embrace 532 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,357 those even when they give us answers we don't like. 533 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,317 >> Sure. But uh the internet and technology 534 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,357 has enabled us to uh generate a large 535 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,437 number of content that uh data 536 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,597 uh that the process the scientific 537 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:02,717 process allows us sort of um damages the 538 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,637 hope laden within the scientific process. Because if you just have a 539 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,877 bunch of people saying facts [gasps] on the internet and some of them are 540 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:15,037 going to be LLMs, how is anything testable at all? 541 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,397 Especially that involves like human nature or things like this. It's not physics. 542 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,957 >> Here's a question a friend of mine just asked me on this topic. So suppose you 543 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:26,797 had LLMs in equivalent of GPT4 even 5 6 7 8. Suppose you had them in the 1600s. 544 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,117 >> Yeah. >> And Galileo comes up for trial. 545 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,637 >> Yeah. >> Right. And you ask the LLM like is G is 546 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,157 Galileo right? >> Yeah. like what does it answer, right? 547 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,237 And one theory is it answers no that he's wrong because the overwhelming 548 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,197 majority of human thought up until that point was that he was wrong and so 549 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:44,957 therefore that's what's in the training data. 550 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,317 >> Yeah. Um, another way of thinking about it is, well, this sufficiently advanced 551 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,957 LLM will have evolved the ability to actually check the math, right? Um, and 552 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,597 we'll actually say actually no, actually, you know, you may not want to 553 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,317 hear it, but he's right. >> Now, if you know, the church at that 554 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,837 time was, you know, own the LLM, they would have given it human reinfor, you 555 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,437 know, human [laughter] feedback to prohibit it from answering that question, 556 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,637 >> right? And so, I like to take it out of our current context because that like 557 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:13,437 makes it very clear those same questions apply today, right? This is exactly the 558 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,757 point of a huge amount of the human feedback training that's actually 559 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,637 happening with these LLMs today. This is a huge like debate that's happening 560 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,517 about whether open source, you know, AI should be legal. 561 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,597 >> Well, the the the actual mechanism of 562 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,157 doing the human RL with human feedback 563 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:32,717 is seems like such a fundamental and fascinating question. How do you select 564 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,157 the humans? >> Exactly. >> Yeah. How do you select the humans? 565 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,437 >> AI alignment, right? Which everybody like is like, "Oh, that sounds great." 566 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,077 Alignment with what? Human values. 567 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,797 whose human values human values. So we're and we're in this mode of like 568 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:51,357 social and popular discourse where like you know there's you know you see this 569 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,437 what do you think of when you read a story in the press right now and they 570 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:58,077 say you know XYZ made a baseless claim about some topic right and there's one 571 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,117 group of people who are like aha think you know they're doing factecking 572 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,677 there's another group of people that are like every time the press says that it's 573 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,917 now a tick and that means that they're lying right like [laughter] 574 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,997 so like we're in this we're in this social context where there's the the the 575 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,717 level to which a lot of people in position positions of power have become 576 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,077 very very certain that they're in a position to determine the truth for the 577 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:22,397 entire population is like there's like there's like some bubble that has formed 578 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,917 around that idea and at least I it's flies completely in the face of 579 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:30,317 everything I was ever trained about science and about reason um and strikes 580 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,037 me as like you know deeply offensive um and incorrect. 581 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:34,317 >> What would you say about the state of 582 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,637 journalism just on that topic today? Are 583 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:41,357 we are we in a temporary kind of uh 584 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:46,317 uh are we experiencing a a a temporary 585 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:50,237 problem in terms of the incentives in terms of the the the business model all 586 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,077 that kind of stuff or is this like a decline of traditional journalism as we 587 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,037 know it. You have to always think about the counterfactual in these things which 588 00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,237 is like okay because these questions right this question heads towards is 589 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,637 like okay the impact of social media and the undermining of truth and all this 590 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,277 but then you want to ask the question of like okay what if we had had the modern 591 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,637 media environment including cable news and including social media and Twitter 592 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,187 and everything else in 1939 or 1941 593 00:32:12,270 --> 00:32:15,757 [snorts] right or 1910 or 1865 or 1850 594 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:20,237 or 1776 >> right um and like I think 595 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,077 >> you you just introduced like five thought experiments at once and broke my 596 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,357 head But yes, >> that's there's a lot of interesting years in 597 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,077 >> Kennedy like can I just take a simple example Kennedy like how would President 598 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,157 Kennedy have been interpreted with what we know now about all the things Kennedy 599 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,877 was up to >> like how would he have been experienced 600 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,957 by the body politic in a in with a 601 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,677 social media context right like how 602 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,957 would LBJ have been experienced um by 603 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:48,077 the way how would you know like many FDR 604 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,997 like the New Deal the great depression >> I wonder where Twitter would would think 605 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,717 about Churchill and Hitler and Stalin, >> you know, I mean, look, to this day 606 00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,517 there, you know, there's there are lots of very interesting real questions 607 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,237 around like how America, you know, got, you know, basically involved in World 608 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,357 War II and who did what when and the operations of British intelligence and 609 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,957 American soil and did FDR this that Pearl Harbor, you know. 610 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,277 >> Yeah. >> Where Wilson ran for, you know, his his 611 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,997 his candidacy was run on an anti-war will, you know, this he ran on the 612 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,557 platform and not getting involved in World War I. Somehow that switched, you 613 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,357 know, like, and I'm not even making a value judgement any of these things. I'm 614 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,917 just saying like we we the way that our ancestors experienced reality was of 615 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,397 course mediated through centralized top down right control. At that point if you 616 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,797 if you ran those realities again with the media environment we have today the 617 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,517 reality would the reality would be experienced very very differently and 618 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:39,197 then of course that that intermediation would cause the feedback loops to change 619 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:40,877 and then reality would obviously play out. 620 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,637 >> You think you think it would be very different? 621 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,837 >> Yeah, it has to be. It has to be just because it's all so I mean just look at 622 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,717 what's happening today. I mean just I mean the most obvious thing is just the 623 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,077 the collapse and here's [clears throat] another opportunity to argue that this 624 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,197 is not the internet causing this by the way. Um here's a big thing happening 625 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,077 today which is Gallup does this thing every year where they do they pull for 626 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,037 trust in institutions in [clears throat] America and they do it across all the 627 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,077 everything from the military to clergy and big business and the the media and 628 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,037 so forth, right? >> Um and basically there's been a systemic 629 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:11,197 collapse um in trust in institutions in the US almost without exception 630 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:16,077 basically since essentially the early 1970s. Um there's two ways of looking at 631 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,877 that which is oh my god we've lost this old world in which we could trust 632 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,437 institutions and that was so much better because like that should be the way the 633 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,557 world runs. The other way of looking at it is we just know a lot more now and 634 00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,277 the great mystery is why those numbers aren't all zero. 635 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,197 >> Yeah. [clears throat] >> Right. [laughter] Because like now we 636 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,197 know so much about how these things operate and like they're not that 637 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,797 impressive. >> And also why do we don't have uh better 638 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,557 institutions and better leaders then? 639 00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,517 >> Yeah. And so so so this goes to the thing which is like okay had had we had 640 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,357 the media environment of the of that we've had between the 1970s and today if 641 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,917 we had that in the 30s and 40s or 1900s 1910s I think there's no question 642 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,797 reality would turn out different if only because everybody would have known to 643 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,397 not trust the institutions which would have changed their level of credibility 644 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,437 their ability to control circumstances therefore the circumstances would have 645 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,397 had to change right and it would have been a feedback loop it was it would 646 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,437 have been a feedback loop process in other words right it's it's it's it's 647 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:07,037 your exper your experience of reality changes reality and then reality changes 648 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,997 your experience of reality, right? It's it's a it's a two-way feedback process 649 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,997 and media is the intermediating force >> between that. So change the media 650 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,757 environment, change reality. >> Yeah. 651 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:19,277 >> And so it's just so just as a as a consequence, I think it's just really 652 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,797 hard to say, oh, things worked a certain way then and they work a different way 653 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,277 now and then therefore like people were 654 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:30,077 smarter then or better then or, you know, by the way dumber then or not as 655 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:34,557 capable then, right? We we make all these like really light and casual like 656 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,917 comparisons of ourselves to, you know, previous generations of people. You we 657 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,557 draw judgments all the time. And I just think it's like really hard to do any of 658 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,837 that because if we if we put ourselves in their shoes with the media that they 659 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,877 had at that time, like I think we probably most likely would have been 660 00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:47,917 just like them. 661 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,117 >> So don't you think that our perception 662 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:54,157 and understanding of reality would you 663 00:35:54,240 --> 00:35:58,797 be more and more mediated through large language models now? So you said media 664 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,957 before. Isn't the LLM going to be the new what 665 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,277 is it? Mainstream media MSM. It'll be 666 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,997 LLM. Uh that would be the source of uh I'm 667 00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:13,997 sure there's a way to kind of rapidly fine-tune like making LLM's real time. 668 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:18,477 I'm sure there's probably a research problem that you can uh do just rapid 669 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,517 fine-tuning to the new events. Something like this. 670 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:25,117 >> Well, even just the the whole concept of the chat UI might not be the like the 671 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,677 chat UI is just the first whack at this and maybe that's the dominant thing. But 672 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,397 look, may maybe maybe our maybe we don't we don't know yet. Like maybe the 673 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:34,157 experience most people have with LM is is just a continuous feed, you know, 674 00:36:34,240 --> 00:36:36,797 maybe it's more of a passive feed and you just are getting a constant like 675 00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,037 running commentary on everything happening in your life and it's just 676 00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,157 helping you kind of interpret and understand everything. also really more 677 00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:46,717 deeply integrated into your life. Not just like oh uh like intellectual 678 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,597 philosophical thoughts but like literally 679 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,317 uh like how to make a coffee, where to 680 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:57,277 go for lunch, just uh whether you know how dating all this kind of stuff. 681 00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:58,397 >> What to say in a job interview? Yeah. 682 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,277 >> What to say? What to say >> next sentence? 683 00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,317 >> Yeah. Next sentence. Yeah. At that level. Yeah. I mean, yes. So technically 684 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,597 now whether we want that or not is an open question, right? Boy, I would kill 685 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,077 for a popup. [laughter] A popup. Right 686 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,197 now, the estimated engagement using is 687 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,437 decreasing. For Mark Andre since there's 688 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,677 this controversy uh section for his 689 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:22,557 Wikipedia page in 1993, something happened or something like this. Bring 690 00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,117 it up. That'll drive engagement up anyway. 691 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,197 >> Yeah, that's right. I mean, look, [laughter] 692 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,677 this gets this whole thing of like, so you know, the chat interface has this 693 00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,797 whole concept of prompt engineering, right? So prompts. Well, it turns out 694 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,877 one of the things that OM are really good at is writing prompts. 695 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:40,877 Right. And so like what if you just outsourced and and by the way you could 696 00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,877 run this experiment today. You could hook this up to do this today. The 697 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,277 latency is not good enough to do it real time in a conversation, but you could 698 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,557 you could run this experiment and you just say look every 20 seconds you could 699 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,557 just say you know you know tell me what the optimal prompt is and then ask 700 00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,557 yourself that question to give me the result. 701 00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,237 >> Um and then as as you exactly to your point as you add there will be there 702 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,797 will be these systems are going to have the ability to be learned and updated 703 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,917 essentially in real time. And so you'll be able to have a pendant or your phone 704 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,797 or whatever watch or whatever. It'll have a microphone on it. It'll listen to 705 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,837 your conversations. It'll have a feed of everything else happen in the world and 706 00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,477 then it'll be re, you know, sort of retraining, prompting or retraining 707 00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,677 itself on the fly. Um, and so the scenario you described is a is actually 708 00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:19,677 a completely doable scenario. Now, the hard question on these is always, okay, 709 00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,637 since that's possible, are people going to want that? Like, what's the form of 710 00:38:22,720 --> 00:38:25,357 experience? >> Mh. >> You know, that that we we won't know 711 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:30,077 until we try it. But I don't think it's possible yet to predict the form of AI 712 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,957 in our lives. Therefore, it's not possible to predict the way in which it 713 00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,997 will intermediate our experience with reality yet. 714 00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:40,237 >> Yeah. But it feels like there's going to be a killer app. There's probably a mad 715 00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,157 scramble right now. It's out open AI and 716 00:38:42,240 --> 00:38:45,117 Microsoft and Google and Meta and then 717 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,677 startups and smaller companies figuring 718 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:52,797 out what is the killer app because it feels like it's possible like a chat GPT 719 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:54,637 type of thing. It's possible to build 720 00:38:54,720 --> 00:38:57,517 that, but that's 10x more compelling 721 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,397 using already the LLMs we have using 722 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,877 even the open source LLMs, Llama and the 723 00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:04,557 different variants. 724 00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:09,917 Um, so you're investing in a lot of companies and you're paying attention. 725 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,277 Who do you think is going to win this? 726 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:16,557 You think they'll be who's going to be the next page rank inventor? 727 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,757 >> Trillion dollar question. Um, >> another one. We have a few of those today. 728 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,797 >> A bunch of those. So, look, there's a really big question today. sitting here 729 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:26,157 today is a really big question about the big models versus the small models. Um 730 00:39:26,240 --> 00:39:30,157 that's related directly to the big question of proprietary versus open. 731 00:39:30,240 --> 00:39:33,757 >> Um then there's this big question of of of you know where is the training data 732 00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,557 going to like are we topping out on the training data or not and then are we 733 00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:40,077 going to be able to synthesize training data and then there's a huge pile of 734 00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,597 questions around regulation um and you know what's actually going to be legal 735 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,357 um and so I would I when we think about it we we dovetail kind of all those all 736 00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,117 those questions together. You can paint a picture of the world where there's two 737 00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,437 or three god models that are just at 738 00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:58,237 like staggering scale. Um, and they're just better at everything. Um, and they 739 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,877 will be owned by a small set of companies and they will basically 740 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,437 achieve regulatory capture over the government and they'll have competitive 741 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,237 barriers that will prevent other people from um, you know, competing with them. 742 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,797 And so, you know, there will be, you know, just like there's like, you know, 743 00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,837 whatever three big banks or three big you or by the way, three big search 744 00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:16,077 companies or I guess do you know it'll it'll centralize like that. um you can 745 00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,757 paint another very different picture that says no um actually the opposite of 746 00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,517 that's going to happen. this is going to basically that this is the new gold, you 747 00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:27,677 know, this is the new gold rush alchemy like, you know, this is the this is the 748 00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:31,277 big bang for this whole new area of of science and technology. And so 749 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,677 therefore, you're going to have every smart 14-year-old on the planet building 750 00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,557 open source, right? You know, and figuring out ways to optimize these 751 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,917 things. Um, and then, you know, we're just going to get like overwhelmingly 752 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,637 better at generating trading data. We're going to, you know, bring in like 753 00:40:42,720 --> 00:40:45,037 blockchain networks to have like an economic incentive to generate 754 00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,797 decentralized training data and so forth and so on. And then basically, we're 755 00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,077 going to live in a world of open source. 756 00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:54,157 And there's going to be a billion LLMs, right, of every size, scale, shape, and 757 00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:56,877 description. And there might be a few big ones that are like the super genius 758 00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,917 ones, but like mostly what we'll experience is open source. And that's, 759 00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,557 you know, that's more like a world of like what we have today with like Linux 760 00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,277 and the web. >> Um, so 761 00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:09,997 >> okay. But, uh, you you painted these two worlds, but there's also variations of 762 00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,557 those worlds because you said regulatory capture. it's possible to have these 763 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:16,237 tech giants that don't have regulatory capture, which is something you're also 764 00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:20,237 calling for, saying it's okay to have big companies working on this stuff, uh, 765 00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:21,917 as long as they don't achieve regulatory 766 00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:27,117 capture. Uh, but I have the sense that, 767 00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,557 um, there's just going to be a new startup 768 00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,197 that's going to basically be the page 769 00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:38,397 rank inventor, which is become the new tech giant. 770 00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,077 I don't know. I would love to hear your 771 00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,837 kind of opinion if Google, Meta, and 772 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,677 Microsoft are as gigantic companies able 773 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,277 to pivot so hard to create new products. 774 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:55,037 Like some of it is just even hiring people or having uh corporate structure 775 00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:59,437 that allows for the crazy young kids to come in and just create something 776 00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,957 totally new. Do you think it's possible or do you think it'll come from a startup? 777 00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,917 >> Yeah, it is this always big question which is you get this feeling. I hear 778 00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:10,157 about this a lot from CEOs, founder CEOs where it's like, wow, we have 50,000 779 00:42:10,240 --> 00:42:13,757 people. It's now harder to do new things than it was when we had 50 people. 780 00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:15,517 >> Yeah. >> Like what has happened? So that that's a 781 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,637 recurring phenomenon. Um, by the way, that's one of the reasons why there's 782 00:42:18,720 --> 00:42:21,597 always startups and why there's venture capital. Um, it's just that's that's 783 00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,557 like a timeless >> uh kind of thing. So that that that's 784 00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:29,597 one observation. Um, on on page rank um we could talk about that, but on page 785 00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,397 rank specifically on page rank um there actually is a page so there is a page 786 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,357 rank already in the field and it's the transformer, right? So the the the big 787 00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:39,837 breakthrough was the transformer. Um and uh the transformer was invented in uh 788 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,517 2017 >> at Google. And this is actually like 789 00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,957 really an interesting question because it's like okay the transformers like why 790 00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,917 does open AAI even exist? Like the transformers invested at Google, why 791 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,037 didn't Google I asked a guy I asked a guy I know who was senior at Google 792 00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:54,157 Brain kind of when this was happening. 793 00:42:54,240 --> 00:42:56,957 And I said if Google had just gone flat out to the wall 794 00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,317 >> and just said look we're going to launch 795 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,677 we're going to launch equivalent of GPT4 as fast as we can. Um he said I said 796 00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,317 when could we have had it and he said 2019. Yeah, 797 00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,957 >> they could have just done a two-year sprint with the transformer and and been 798 00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,277 at because they already had the compute at scale. They already had all the 799 00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,037 training data. They could have just done it. 800 00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,317 >> There's a variety of reasons they didn't do it. This is like a classic big 801 00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:18,797 company thing. Um IBM invented the relational database in 19 in the 1970s, 802 00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,397 let it sit on the shelf as a paper. 803 00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,837 Larry Ellison picked it up and built Oracle. Xerox Park invented the 804 00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,877 interactive computer. They let it sit on the shelf. Steve Jobs came and turned 805 00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:31,117 into the Macintosh. Right? And so there is this pattern. Now having said that, 806 00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,317 sitting here today like Google's in the game, right? So Google, you know, maybe 807 00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,197 maybe they they maybe they let like a four-year gap there go there that they 808 00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,837 maybe shouldn't have, but like they're in the game. And so now they've got, you 809 00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,077 know, now they're committed. They've done this merger. They're bringing in 810 00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:43,997 Demos. They've got this merger with Deep Mind. 811 00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:45,437 >> You know, they're piling in resources. 812 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,557 There are rumors that they're, you know, building an incredible, you know, super 813 00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:53,117 LLM. Um, you know, way beyond what we even have today. Um, and they've got, 814 00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,157 you know, unlimited resources and a huge, you know, they've been challenged 815 00:43:56,240 --> 00:43:59,117 their honor. [laughter] >> Yeah. I had a I had a a chance to hang 816 00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:03,037 out with Sund Bachai a couple days ago and we took this walk and there's this 817 00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:07,357 giant new building uh where there's going to be a lot of AI work uh being 818 00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,677 done and it's kind of 819 00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:15,357 this ominous feeling of like the fight is on. [laughter] 820 00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,557 >> Yeah. >> Like there's this beautiful Silicon 821 00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:23,197 Valley nature like birds are chirping and this giant building and it's like uh 822 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,837 the beast has been awakened. >> Yeah. 823 00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,917 And then like all the big companies are waking up to this. They have the 824 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:35,197 compute, >> but also the little guys have uh it 825 00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,717 feels like they have all the tools to create the killer product that uh and 826 00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,557 then there's also the tools to scale. If you have a good idea, if you have the 827 00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,597 page rank idea. So I there's several 828 00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:49,997 things that is page rank p there's page rank the algorithm and the idea and 829 00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,357 there's like the implementation of it and I feel like killer product is not 830 00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,877 just the idea like the transform it's the implementation something something 831 00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:01,357 really compelling about it like you just can't look away something like um the 832 00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:05,517 algorithm behind Tik Tok versus Tik Tok itself like the actual experience of Tik 833 00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:09,597 Tok that just you can't look away. It feels like somebody's going to come up 834 00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,557 with that >> and it could be Google, but it feels 835 00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,317 like it's just easier and faster to do for a startup. 836 00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,437 >> Yeah. So, so the startup the the huge the huge advantage that startups have is 837 00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,197 they just they there's no sacred cows. 838 00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:22,957 There's no historical legacy to protect. 839 00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,757 There's no need to reconcile your new plan with the existing strategy. There's 840 00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,797 no communication overhead. There's no, you know, big companies are big 841 00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,517 companies. They've got pre meetings planning for the meeting. Then they have 842 00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:33,677 then they have the post meeting of the recap. Then they have the presentation 843 00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,437 of the board. Then they have the next rounds of meetings. 844 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,477 >> Yeah. Yeah. And and that's that's the elapsed time when the startup launches 845 00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:42,797 its product, right? So so so so there's a timeless, right? So there's a timeless 846 00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:45,037 thing there. Now >> what the startups don't have is 847 00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,357 everything else, right? So startups, they don't have a brand, they don't have 848 00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:49,917 customer relationships, they've got no distribution, they've got no, you know, 849 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,717 scale. I mean, sitting here today, they can't even get GPUs, right? Like there's 850 00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,597 like a GPU shortage. >> Startups are literally stalled out right 851 00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,237 now because they can't get chips, which is like super weird. 852 00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,317 >> Yeah. >> Um >> they got the cloud. 853 00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:01,837 >> Yeah. But the clouds run out of chips. 854 00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,117 Um right. And then and then and then to the extent the clouds have chips. They 855 00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:08,637 allocate them to the big customers, not the small customers. Right. And so so so 856 00:46:08,720 --> 00:46:12,877 so the small companies lack everything other than the ability to just do 857 00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,917 something new. >> Yeah. >> Right. Um and and this is the timeless 858 00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,237 race and battle. And this is kind of the point I tried to make in the essay, 859 00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,517 which is like both sides of this are good. Like it's really good to have like 860 00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:24,477 highly scaled tech companies that can do things that are like at staggering 861 00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,357 levels of sophistication. It's really good to have startups that can launch 862 00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,637 brand new ideas. They ought to be able to both do that and compete. they 863 00:46:30,720 --> 00:46:33,917 neither one ought to be subsidized or protected from the others. Like that's 864 00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:37,677 that's to me that's just like very clearly the idealized world. It is the 865 00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,677 world we've been in for AI up until now. 866 00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,317 And then of course there are people trying to shut that down. But my hope is 867 00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,037 that you know the best outcome clearly will be if that continues. 868 00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:49,277 >> We'll talk about that a little bit but I'd love to linger uh 869 00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,757 on uh some of the ways this is going to change the internet. So um I don't know 870 00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,477 if you remember but there's a thing called Mosaic and there's a thing called 871 00:46:56,560 --> 00:47:00,557 Netscape Navigator. So you were there in the beginning. Uh what about the 872 00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,397 interface to the internet? How do you think the browser changes and who gets 873 00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,077 to own the browser? We got to see some 874 00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,757 very interesting browsers. Uh Firefox, I 875 00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,077 mean all the variants of Microsoft 876 00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,277 Internet Explorer, Edge and uh now 877 00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:20,557 Chrome. Um the actual I mean it seems like a 878 00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:24,717 dumb question to ask, but do you think we'll still have the web browser? 879 00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:28,477 So, I uh I have an 8-year-old and he's super into like Minecraft and learning 880 00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,677 to code and doing all this stuff. So, I I I of course I was very proud I could 881 00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:34,157 bring sort of fire down from the mountain to my kid and I brought him 882 00:47:34,240 --> 00:47:36,157 chat GPT and I hooked him up >> Yeah. 883 00:47:36,240 --> 00:47:39,197 >> on his on his on his on his laptop and I was like, you know, this is the thing 884 00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,757 that's going to answer all your questions. And he's like, okay. [snorts] 885 00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,397 >> And I'm like, but it's going to answer all your questions. And he's like, well, 886 00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,397 of course, like it's a computer. Of course it answers all your questions. 887 00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:49,437 Like, what else would a computer be good for? Dad. 888 00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,437 >> Um, [snorts] and never impressed. 889 00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:55,837 >> Not impressed in the least. Two weeks pass. Um, and he has some question. Um, 890 00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:59,117 and I say, "Well, have you asked Jet GPT?" And he's like, "Dad, Bing is 891 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,877 better." >> And why is Bing better is because it's 892 00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:06,157 built into the browser? Because he's like, "Look, I have the Microsoft Edge 893 00:48:06,240 --> 00:48:08,717 browser and like it's got Bing right here." And then he he doesn't know this 894 00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,997 yet, but one of the things you can do with Bing in Edge um is there's a 895 00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:16,397 setting where you can um use it to basically talk to any web page because 896 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,197 it's sitting right there next to the uh next to the next to the browser. And by 897 00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,317 the way, which includes PDF documents and so you can in in in the way they've 898 00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,437 implemented in Edge with Bang is you can load a PDF and then you can you can ask 899 00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:28,877 it questions which is the thing you you you can't do currently and and and just 900 00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:31,837 chat GPT. So they're you know they're they're going to they're going to push 901 00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,317 the the the mel I think that's great you know they're going to push the melding 902 00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,597 and see if there's a combination thing there. Google's rolling out this thing 903 00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:41,517 the magic button which is implemented in they put in Google Docs, right? And so 904 00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,797 you go into, you know, Google Docs and you create a new document and you, you 905 00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,117 know, you instead of like, you know, starting to type, you just, you know, 906 00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,877 say it, press the button and it starts to like generate content for you, right? 907 00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,037 Like is that the way that it'll work? 908 00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,557 Um, is it going to be a speech UI where you're just going to have an earpiece 909 00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:00,797 and talk to it all day long? You know, is it going to be a like these are all 910 00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,597 like this is exactly the kind of thing that I I don't this is exactly the kind 911 00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:06,397 of thing I don't think is possible to forecast. I think what we need to do is 912 00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,837 like run all those experiments. Um and and and so one outcome is we come out of 913 00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,347 this with like a super browser that has AI built in that's just like amazing. 914 00:49:13,430 --> 00:49:15,997 [snorts] the other there. Look, there's a real possibility that the whole I 915 00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,677 mean, look, there's a possibility here that the whole idea of a screen and 916 00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,957 windows and all this stuff just goes away because like why do you need that 917 00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:26,317 if you just have a thing that's just telling you whatever you need to know? 918 00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:29,277 >> And also, so there's apps that you can 919 00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:31,277 use. You don't really use them, you 920 00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,317 know, being a Linux guy and Windows guy. 921 00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,797 Um, there's one window, the browser that with which you can interact with the 922 00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:42,397 internet, but on the phone, you can also have apps. So, I can interact with 923 00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:47,197 Twitter through the app or through the web browser and um that seems like an 924 00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,197 obvious distinction, but why have the web browser in that case if one of the 925 00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,837 apps starts becoming the everything app? 926 00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:55,757 >> Yeah, that's right. >> What Elon's trying to do with Twitter, 927 00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,877 but there could be others. There could be like a Bing app. There could be a 928 00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:03,597 Google app that just doesn't really do search, but just like 929 00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,437 do what I guess AOL did back in the day 930 00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,957 or something where it's all right there 931 00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,997 and and it changes 932 00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:15,037 um it changes the nature of the internet 933 00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,197 because 934 00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:22,157 the where the content is hosted, who owns the data, who owns the content, how 935 00:50:22,240 --> 00:50:25,517 what is what is the kind of content you create? How do you make money by 936 00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,877 creating content? or the content creators, 937 00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:33,837 uh, all of that. Or it could just keep being the same, which is like with just 938 00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,957 the nature of web pages changes and the nature of content, but there will still 939 00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:40,077 be a web browser cuz a web browser is a pretty sexy product. 940 00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:41,597 >> Mhm. >> It just seems to work. 941 00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,317 >> Mhm. >> Cuz it like you have an interface, a 942 00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,597 window into the world, and then the world can be anything you want. And as 943 00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,397 the world will evolve, it could be different programming languages, it can 944 00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:54,077 be animated, maybe it's threedimensional, and so on. Yeah, it's 945 00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,957 interesting. Do you think we'll still have the web browser? 946 00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:01,277 >> Every every every um every medium becomes the content for the next one. So 947 00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:04,477 the you know the AI will be able to give you a browser whenever you want. Um 948 00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,117 >> Oh, interesting. >> Yeah. Well, another way to think about 949 00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,717 it is maybe what the browser is, maybe it's just the escape hatch, right? And 950 00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,317 which is maybe kind of what it is today, right? Which is like most of what you do 951 00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,197 is like inside a social network or inside a search engine or inside, you 952 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,397 know, somebody's app or inside some controlled experience, right? But then 953 00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,357 every once in a while there's something where you actually want to jailbreak. 954 00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:24,557 you want to actually get free. 955 00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:26,877 >> The web browser is the f you to the man. 956 00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,357 You you're allowed to That's the free internet. 957 00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,837 >> Yeah. >> Back back the way it was in the '90s. 958 00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:33,677 >> So, here's something I'm proud of. So, nobody really talks about here's 959 00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:35,917 something I'm proud of, which is that the web the web the browser the web 960 00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:37,997 servers they're all they're still backward compatible all the way back to 961 00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:43,037 like 1992, right? So, like you can put up a you can still you know the big 962 00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,837 breakthrough of the web early on the big breakthrough was it made it really easy 963 00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,717 to read, but it also made it really easy to write, made it really easy to publish 964 00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,917 and and and we literally made it so easy to publish. We made it not only so it 965 00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,637 was easy to publish content, it was actually also easy to actually write a 966 00:51:54,720 --> 00:51:56,877 web server. >> Yeah. >> Right. And and you could literally write 967 00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:59,837 a web server in four lines of Pearl code and and and you could start publishing 968 00:51:59,920 --> 00:52:02,957 content on it and you could set whatever rules you want for the content, whatever 969 00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:06,077 censorship, no censorship, whatever you want, you could just do that as long as 970 00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,557 you had an IP address, right? You you could do that. That still works, right? 971 00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:14,477 Like that still works exactly as I just described. So this is part of my 972 00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,597 reaction to all of this like you know all this just censorship pressure and 973 00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,717 all this you know these issues around control and all this stuff which is like 974 00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:24,317 maybe we need to get back a little bit more to the wild west like the wild west 975 00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,757 is still out there now they [laughter] will they will try to chase you down 976 00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,157 like they'll try to you know people who want to censor will try to take away 977 00:52:30,240 --> 00:52:32,797 your your um you know your domain name and they'll try to take away your 978 00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:35,437 payments account and so forth if they really don't like what you what you're 979 00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,797 saying but but nevertheless you like unless they literally are intercepting 980 00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:43,117 you at the ISP level like you can still put up a thing um and so I don't know. I 981 00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:46,717 think that's important to preserve, right? Like because because because I 982 00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:50,077 mean one is just a a freedom argument, but the other is a creativity argument 983 00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,957 which is you want to have the escape hatch so that the kid with the idea is 984 00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,837 able to realize the idea because to your point on page rank you you actually 985 00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,277 don't know what the next big idea is, right? No, nobody called Larry Page and 986 00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,917 told him to develop page rank like he came up with that on his own. And you 987 00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,957 want to always I I think leave the escape hatch for the next, you know, kid 988 00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:07,597 or the next Stanford grad student to have the breakthrough idea and be able 989 00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:11,757 to get it up and running before anybody notices. Um, you and I are both fans of 990 00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:13,757 history. So, let's step back. We've been 991 00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:14,957 talking about the future. Let's step 992 00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:18,797 back for a bit and look at uh the '9s. 993 00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:23,357 You created Mosaic web browser, the first widely used web browser. Tell the 994 00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:27,677 story of that. How and how did it evolve into Netscape Navigator. This the early 995 00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,877 days. >> So, full story. So, um 996 00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,717 >> you were born >> I was born small child. Um 997 00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:38,317 >> actually, yeah, let's go there. like when when did you when did you first 998 00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:42,077 fall in love with computers? >> Oh, so I hit the generational jackpot 999 00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:45,037 and I hit the Gen X kind of point perfectly as it turns out. So I was born 1000 00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:50,477 in 1971. So there's this great website called WTF happened in 1971.com which is 1001 00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:53,037 basically 1971 is when everything started to go to hell and I was of 1002 00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,237 course born in 1971. So I like to think that I had something to do with that. 1003 00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:59,757 >> Did you make it on the website? I have I don't think I made it on the website but 1004 00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:03,277 I you know hopefully >> somebody needs to add this is this is where everything 1005 00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:07,037 >> maybe I contributed to some of the trends um that they uh that they should 1006 00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:10,157 every line on that website goes like that right so it's all it's all it's all 1007 00:54:10,240 --> 00:54:14,157 a picture disaster but um but there was this moment in time where because the 1008 00:54:14,240 --> 00:54:17,677 you know sort of the Apple you know the Apple 2 hit in like 1978 and then the 1009 00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:22,637 IBM PC hit in ' 82 so I was like you know 11 when the PC came out um and so I 1010 00:54:22,720 --> 00:54:25,677 just kind of hit that perfectly and then that was the first moment in time when 1011 00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,477 like regular people could spend a few hundred and get a computer, right? And 1012 00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:32,717 so that I just like that that that resonated right out of the gate. Um, and 1013 00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,597 then the other part of the story is, you know, I was using an Apple 2. I used a 1014 00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:37,837 bunch of them, but I was using Apple 2 and of course it said on the back of 1015 00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:41,837 every Apple 2 and every Mac it said, you know, designed in Certino, California. 1016 00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:45,357 And I was like, wow, Certino must be the like shiny city on the hill, like Wizard 1017 00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:48,637 of Oz, like the most amazing like city of all time. I can't wait to see it. And 1018 00:54:48,720 --> 00:54:52,317 of course, years later, I came out to Silicon Valley and went to Certino and 1019 00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:55,117 it's just a bunch of office parks [laughter] and lowrise apartment 1020 00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:58,477 buildings. [gasps] So the aesthetics were a little disappointing but you know 1021 00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:02,717 it was the the vector uh right of the of the creation of a lot of a lot of this 1022 00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:07,437 stuff. Um >> so so then basically by so part part of 1023 00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:09,757 my story is just the luck of having been born at the right time and getting 1024 00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:13,517 exposed to PCs. Then the other part is um the other part is when El Gore says 1025 00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:16,957 that he created the internet. he actually is correct uh in in in a really 1026 00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:20,397 meaningful way which is he sponsored a bill in 1985 that essentially created 1027 00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:24,157 the modern internet created what is called the NSFnet at the time which is 1028 00:55:24,240 --> 00:55:28,717 sort of the the first really fast internet backbone. Um and uh you know 1029 00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,997 that that build dumped a ton of money into a bunch of research universities to 1030 00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:34,797 build out basically the internet backbone and then these supercomputer 1031 00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:38,317 centers that were clustered around um the the the internet and and one of 1032 00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:41,197 those universities was University of Illinois where I went to school. And so 1033 00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:43,917 the other stroke of luck that I had was I I went to Illinois basically right as 1034 00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:47,597 that money was just like getting dumped on campus. And so as a consequence we 1035 00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:52,797 had at on campus and this is like you know 8991 we had like you know we were right on 1036 00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,237 the internet backbone. We had like T3 and 45 at the time T3 45 megabit 1037 00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,597 backbone connection which at the time was you know wildly state-of-the-art. Um 1038 00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,557 we had Cray supercomputers we had thinking machines parallel 1039 00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:06,237 supercomputers. We had silicon graphics workstations. We had Macintoshes. We had 1040 00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,517 we had next cubes all over the place. We had like every possible kind of computer 1041 00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:13,037 you could imagine cuz all this money just fell out of the sky. [gasps] Um, 1042 00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:14,557 >> so you were living in the future. 1043 00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:15,997 >> Yeah. So, yeah, quite literally it was. 1044 00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,957 Yeah. Like it's all it's all there. It's all like we had full broadband graphics 1045 00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:21,917 like the whole thing. And and it's actually funny because they had this 1046 00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:24,957 this is the first time I kind of it sort of tickled the back of my head that 1047 00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:27,757 there might be a big opportunity in here, which is, you know, they they 1048 00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:30,157 embraced it and so they put like computers in all the dorms and they 1049 00:56:30,240 --> 00:56:33,197 wired up all the dorm rooms and they had all these, you know, labs everywhere and 1050 00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:34,477 everything. And then they they gave 1051 00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:36,957 every undergrad a computer account and 1052 00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:41,677 an email address. Um and the assumption was that you would use the internet for 1053 00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:46,877 your four years at college. Um and then you would graduate and stop using it 1054 00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:48,477 >> and that was that right? Yeah. 1055 00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:50,637 >> And you would just retire your email address. It wouldn't be relevant anymore 1056 00:56:50,720 --> 00:56:53,277 because you'd go off in the workplace and they don't use email. [snorts] 1057 00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:55,437 >> You'd be back to using fax machines or whatever. 1058 00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,557 >> Did you have that sense as well? Like what what you said the the back of your 1059 00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:02,157 head was tickled like what what was your what what was exciting to you about this 1060 00:57:02,240 --> 00:57:05,357 possible world? Well, if this if this is so useful in this contain if this is so 1061 00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:07,757 useful in this contained environment that just has this weird source of 1062 00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:11,357 outside funding, then if if it were practical for everybody else to have 1063 00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:13,837 this and if it were cost- effective for everybody else to have this, wouldn't 1064 00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:17,517 they want it? And the overwhelmingly the prevailing view at the time was no, they 1065 00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,957 would not want it. This is esoteric weird nerd stuff, right, that like 1066 00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:23,197 computer science kids like, but like normal people are never going to do 1067 00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:27,277 email, right, or be on the internet, right? Um, and so I was just like, wow, 1068 00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:30,497 like this this is actually like this is really compelling stuff. Now the 1069 00:57:30,580 --> 00:57:33,437 [snorts] other part was it was all really hard to use and in practice you 1070 00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:36,397 had to be a basically a CS uh you basically had you had to be a CS 1071 00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,757 undergrad or equivalent to actually get full use of the internet at that point 1072 00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,637 um because it was all pretty esoteric stuff. So then that was the other part 1073 00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:45,837 of the idea which was okay we need to actually make this easy to use. 1074 00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:51,037 >> So what's involved in creating mosaic like in creating a graphical interface 1075 00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:53,597 to the internet? >> Yes. So it was a combination of things. 1076 00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:57,277 So it was like basically the the web existed in an early sort of described as 1077 00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:00,557 prototype form and by the way text only at that point. 1078 00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:01,997 >> What did it look like? What what was the 1079 00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:06,877 web I mean and the key figures like what was it what was it like? What 1080 00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,137 >> made a picture? >> It looked like Jad GPT actually. 1081 00:58:09,220 --> 00:58:11,117 [laughter] Um it was all text. 1082 00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,477 >> Yeah. >> Um and so you had a textbased web browser. 1083 00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:16,957 >> Well actually the original browser Tim Tim Berners Lee the original the 1084 00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:19,437 original browser both the original browser and the server actually ran on 1085 00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:22,077 next next cubes. Mhm. >> So these were this was you know the 1086 00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:25,037 computer Steve Jobs made during the interim period when he during the decade 1087 00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:28,317 long interim period when he was not at Apple [gasps] you know he got fired in 1088 00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:32,717 85 and then came back in 97. So this was in that interim period where he had this 1089 00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:36,237 company called Next and they made these literally these computers called cubes 1090 00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:39,357 >> and there's this famous story they were beautiful but they were uh 12in x 12 in 1091 00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,477 x 12 in cubes computers and there's a famous story about how they could have 1092 00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:46,557 cost half as much if it had been 12 x 12 x 13 but [laughter] 1093 00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:50,877 Steve was like no like it has to be. So they were like $6,000 basically academic 1094 00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:54,877 workstations. They had the first city round drives. Um which were slow. I mean 1095 00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:58,797 it was the computers were all but unusable. Um they were so slow but they 1096 00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:01,997 were beautiful. >> Okay. Can we actually just take a tiny tangent there? 1097 00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:03,677 >> Sure. Of course. 1098 00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:07,197 >> The the 12 x 12 x 12 uh that just so 1099 00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:09,757 beautifully encapsulates Steve Jobs idea 1100 00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:13,277 of design. Can you just comment on um 1101 00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:17,117 what you find interesting about Steve Jobs? what uh about that view of the 1102 00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:21,917 world that dogmatic pursuit of perfection in how he saw perfection in 1103 00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:24,317 design. >> Yes. So I guess they say like look he 1104 00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:28,077 was a deep believer I think in a very deep the way I interpret it I don't know 1105 00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:30,797 if you ever really describe it like this but the way I' interpret it is it's it's 1106 00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:33,757 like it's like this thing it's it's actually a thing in philosophy it's like 1107 00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:37,197 aesthetics are not just appearances aesthetics go all the way to like deep 1108 00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:41,837 underlining underlying meaning right it's like I'm not a physicist one of the things 1109 00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:44,397 I've heard physicists say is one of the things you start to get a sense of when 1110 00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:47,677 a theory might be correct is when it's beautiful right like you know there 1111 00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:50,957 right and so so so there's something and you you feel the same thing by the way 1112 00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,997 in like human psychology Right? You know, when when you're 1113 00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:57,037 experiencing awe, right? You know, there's like a there's like a there's a 1114 00:59:57,120 --> 00:59:59,677 simplicity to it when when you're having an honest interaction with somebody, 1115 00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:02,877 there's an aesthetic, I would say, calm that comes over you cuz you're actually 1116 01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:05,597 being fully honest and trying to hide yourself, right? So there there so so 1117 01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:08,397 it's like this very deep sense of aesthetics 1118 01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:10,317 >> and he would trust that judgment that he 1119 01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:12,957 had deep down like even even if the 1120 01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:15,677 engineering teams are saying this is uh 1121 01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:19,997 this is too difficult. Even if the whatever the finance folks are saying 1122 01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:23,357 this is ridiculous the uh the supply chain all that kind of stuff this makes 1123 01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:27,197 this impossible to m we can't do this kind of material uh this has never been 1124 01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:30,237 done before so on and so forth he just sticks by it 1125 01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:34,717 >> well I mean who makes a phone out of aluminum right like [laughter] 1126 01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:37,757 nobody else would have done that and now of course if your phone was made out of 1127 01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:41,037 aluminum what you know how crude what a kind of caveman would you have to be to 1128 01:00:41,120 --> 01:00:44,317 have a phone that's made out of plastic like right so like so it's just this 1129 01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:47,197 very right and you know look it's it's there's a thousand different ways to 1130 01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:49,437 look at this. But one of the things is just like, look, these things are 1131 01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:52,637 central to your lives. Like you're with your phone more than you're with 1132 01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:55,037 anything else. Like it's in your it's going to be in your hand. I mean, he you 1133 01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:57,277 know, you know this, he thought very deeply about what it meant for something 1134 01:00:57,360 --> 01:00:58,397 to be in your hand all day long. 1135 01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:01,117 >> Yeah. >> Well, for example, he a a here's an 1136 01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:04,317 interesting design thing. Like he he never wanted my understanding is he 1137 01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:08,237 never wanted an iPhone to have a screen larger than you could reach with your 1138 01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:11,597 thumb one-handed. [clears throat] >> And so he he was actually opposed to the 1139 01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:14,077 idea of making the phones larger. And I don't know if you have this experience 1140 01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:17,037 today, but let's say there are certain moments in your day when you might be 1141 01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:20,237 like um only have one hand available um and you might want to be on your phone. 1142 01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:22,877 >> Yeah. [snorts] >> And you're trying to like [laughter] 1143 01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:25,517 send a text and you your thumb can't reach the send button. 1144 01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:28,077 >> Yeah. I mean there's pros and cons, right? And then there's like folding 1145 01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:32,237 phones which I would love to know what he thought thinks about them. Uh but I 1146 01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:35,277 mean is there something you could also just linger on cuz he's one of the 1147 01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:38,717 interesting um figures in the history of 1148 01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:42,077 technology. What makes him what makes 1149 01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:43,837 him as successful as he was? What makes 1150 01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:46,077 him as interesting as he was? Uh what 1151 01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:51,597 made him um so productive and important in um in in in the development of 1152 01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,157 technology. >> He had an integrated worldview. So the 1153 01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:57,997 the the properly designed device that had the correct functionality that had 1154 01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:02,877 the deepest understanding of the user that was the most beautiful, right? Like 1155 01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:04,877 it had to be all of those things, right? 1156 01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:07,757 It was he basically would drive to as close to perfect as you could possibly 1157 01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:10,877 get, right? And I I you know I suspect that he never quite you know thought he 1158 01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:12,877 ever got there because most great creators you know are generally 1159 01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:15,997 dissatisfied. You know you read accounts later on and all they can all they can 1160 01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,477 see are the flaws in their creation. But like he got as close to perfect each 1161 01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:22,077 step of the way as he could possibly get with the with the constraints of the of 1162 01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:25,277 the technology of his time. Um and then you know look he was you know sort of 1163 01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:28,077 famous in the Apple model. It's like look they they they will you know this 1164 01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:31,757 this headset that they just came out with like it's like a decade long 1165 01:02:31,840 --> 01:02:34,717 project right? It's like and they're just going to sit there and tune and 1166 01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:37,757 tune and polish and polish and tune and polish and tune and polish until it is 1167 01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:39,837 as perfect as anybody could possibly make anything. 1168 01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:41,677 >> Yeah. >> And then this goes to the the the way 1169 01:02:41,760 --> 01:02:44,637 that people describe working with him was which is you know there was a 1170 01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:47,277 terrifying aspect of working with him which is you know he was you know he was 1171 01:02:47,360 --> 01:02:51,517 very tough. Um, but there was this thing that everybody I've ever talked to who 1172 01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:55,677 worked for him says that they all say the following which is he we did the 1173 01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:58,637 best work of our lives when we worked for him because he set the bar 1174 01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:01,437 incredibly high and then he supported us with everything that he could to let us 1175 01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,797 actually do work of that quality. So a lot of people who were at Apple spend 1176 01:03:04,880 --> 01:03:07,357 the rest of their lives trying to find another experience where they feel like 1177 01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:09,277 they're able to hit that quality bar again. 1178 01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:12,717 >> Even if it in retrospect or during it felt like suffering. 1179 01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:17,677 >> Yeah. Exactly. What does that teach you about the human 1180 01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:21,437 condition? Huh? >> So look, so I say exactly. So the 1181 01:03:21,520 --> 01:03:25,197 Silicon Valley I mean look he's not you know George Patton in the you know in 1182 01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:26,317 the army like you know there are many 1183 01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:27,757 examples in other fields you know that 1184 01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:32,317 are like this. Um uh uh 1185 01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,597 specifically in in tech it's actually I find it very interesting. There's the 1186 01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:38,797 Apple way which is polish polish polish and don't ship until it's as perfect as 1187 01:03:38,880 --> 01:03:42,237 you can make it. And then there's the sort of the other approach which is the 1188 01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:45,837 sort of incremental hacker mentality which basically says ship early and 1189 01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:49,437 often and iterate. And one of the things I find really interesting is I'm now 30 1190 01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:53,277 years into this like there are very successful companies on 1191 01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:58,237 both sides of that approach right um like that is a fundamental 1192 01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:02,157 difference right in how to operate and how to build and how to create that you 1193 01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:06,397 have world-class companies operating in both ways. Um, and I don't think the 1194 01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:09,197 question of like which is the superior model is anywhere close to being 1195 01:04:09,280 --> 01:04:13,277 answered like and my suspicion is the answer is do both. The answer is you 1196 01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:17,117 actually want both. They lead to different outcomes. Software tends to do 1197 01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:19,117 better um with the iterative approach. 1198 01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:23,837 Um hardware tends to do better with the uh you know sort of wait and make it 1199 01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:28,317 perfect approach but again you can find examples in in in in both directions. 1200 01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:30,637 >> Oh so the jury is still out on that one. 1201 01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:35,837 Uh so back to mosaic. So what uh it was textbased? 1202 01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:38,397 >> Yeah. >> Uh Tim Berners Lee. 1203 01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:41,117 >> Well, there was the web which was text based, but there were no I mean there 1204 01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:44,107 was like three websites. There was like no content. There were no 1205 01:04:44,190 --> 01:04:46,797 [clears throat] users. Like it wasn't like it wasn't like a catalytic. It 1206 01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:49,197 hadn't and by the way it was all because it was all text. There were no 1207 01:04:49,280 --> 01:04:52,237 documents. There were no images. There were no videos. There were no Right. So 1208 01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:55,677 So it was it was And then if if in the beginning if you had to be on a next 1209 01:04:55,760 --> 01:04:59,117 cube, right, you need to had a next cube both to publish and to consume. So 1210 01:04:59,200 --> 01:05:01,037 >> So there there were 6,000 bucks. You said 1211 01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:03,197 >> there were limitations. Yeah. $6,000 PC. 1212 01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:05,357 They did not they did not sell very many. 1213 01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:09,277 >> But then there was also there was also FTP and there was Usenet, right? And 1214 01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:12,237 there was, you know, a dozen other basically there's Waste, which was an 1215 01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:15,037 early search thing. There was Gopher, which was an early menu based 1216 01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:17,917 information retrieval system. There there were like a dozen different sort 1217 01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:20,957 of scattered ways that people would get to information on on the internet. And 1218 01:05:21,040 --> 01:05:24,157 so the the mosaic idea was basically bring those all together, make the whole 1219 01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:27,277 thing graphical, make it easy to use, make it basically bulletproof so that 1220 01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:30,797 anybody can do it. And then again, just on the luck side, it so happened that 1221 01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:34,157 this was right at the moment when graphics when the guey sort of actually 1222 01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:37,437 took off and we're now also used to the guey that we think it's been around 1223 01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:41,677 forever, but it didn't really it, you know, the Macintosh brought it out in ' 1224 01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:44,637 85, but they actually didn't sell very many Macs in the 80s. [clears throat] It 1225 01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:46,557 was not that successful of a product. 1226 01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:49,037 Um, it really was you needed Windows 3.0 1227 01:05:49,120 --> 01:05:52,877 on PCs and that hit in about 92. Um, and 1228 01:05:52,960 --> 01:05:56,877 so and we did Mosaic 92,93. So that sort of it was like right at the moment when 1229 01:05:56,960 --> 01:06:01,837 you could imagine actually having a graphical user interface to right at all 1230 01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:03,117 much less one to the internet. 1231 01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:07,677 >> How how old did Windows 3 sell? So it was that the really big 1232 01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:11,117 >> that was the big bang >> the big operating graphical operating system. 1233 01:06:11,200 --> 01:06:12,717 >> Well this is the classic. Okay Microsoft 1234 01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:16,317 was operating on the other. So Steve Steve Apple was running on the polish 1235 01:06:16,400 --> 01:06:18,957 until perfect. Microsoft famously ran on the other model which is ship and 1236 01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:22,237 iterate. And so in the old line in those days was Microsoft right version three 1237 01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:25,117 of every Microsoft product. That's the That's the good one, right? And so there 1238 01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:28,397 there are you can you can find online Windows one, Windows 2, nobody used them. 1239 01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:31,757 >> Yeah. >> Actually, the original Windows the in the original Microsoft Windows, the 1240 01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:33,497 windows were non-over overlapping. 1241 01:06:33,580 --> 01:06:35,837 [snorts] >> Um and so you had these very small very 1242 01:06:35,920 --> 01:06:40,317 low resolution screens and then you had literally um it just didn't work. It 1243 01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:44,397 wasn't ready yet. >> Well, and Windows 95, I think, was a pretty big leap also. 1244 01:06:44,480 --> 01:06:47,997 >> That was a big leap, too. Yeah. So, that was like bang bang. Um and then, of 1245 01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:50,637 course, Steve and then and then, you know, in the fullness of time, Steve 1246 01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:53,037 came back. Then the Mac start took off again. And that was the third bang. And 1247 01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:54,957 then the iPhone was a fourth bang. 1248 01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:57,597 >> Such exciting times. >> And then we were off off to the races 1249 01:06:57,680 --> 01:07:01,437 >> cuz nobody could have known what would be created from that. 1250 01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:04,397 >> Well, Windows 3.1 or 3.0, Windows 3.0 to 1251 01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:09,277 the iPhone was only 15 years, >> right? Like it that ramp was in 1252 01:07:09,360 --> 01:07:12,317 retrospect at the time it felt like it took forever, but that in histo in 1253 01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,837 historical terms like that was a very fast ramp from even a graphical computer 1254 01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:20,077 at all on your desk to the iPhone. It was 15 years. Did you did you have a 1255 01:07:20,160 --> 01:07:22,477 sense of what the internet will be as you're looking through the window of 1256 01:07:22,560 --> 01:07:26,317 Mosaic like like what you like there's 1257 01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:28,477 just a few web pages for now. 1258 01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:33,597 >> So the thing I had early on was I was keeping at the time what there's 1259 01:07:33,680 --> 01:07:36,477 disputes over what was the first blog but I I had one of them that at least is 1260 01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:40,557 a is a is a uh is a pos possible um at least a runner up in the competition. Um 1261 01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:42,957 and it it was what was called the what's new page. 1262 01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:47,597 >> Um uh and it was it was it was a hardwired and I had distribution unfair 1263 01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:50,157 advantage. I was I wired I put it right in the browser. [laughter] 1264 01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,797 >> I put it in the browser and then I put my resume in the browser which also was 1265 01:07:52,880 --> 01:07:55,917 was >> hilarious. >> But um [laughter] 1266 01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:59,597 but um I was I I was keeping the not 1267 01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:02,157 many people get to get to do that. So um 1268 01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:07,197 >> the uh [laughter] >> good good call early days. 1269 01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:09,037 >> Yes. >> It's so interesting. 1270 01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:12,157 >> I'm looking for my about Oh, Mark is looking for a job. 1271 01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:16,877 >> Yeah, exactly. >> Um [laughter] so um >> Wow. So the West New page, I would 1272 01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:20,717 literally get up every morning and I would or every afternoon um and I would 1273 01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:24,557 basically if you wanted to launch a website, you would email me um and I 1274 01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:27,197 would list it on the West New page and that was how people discovered the new 1275 01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:30,397 websites as they were coming out. And I remember cuz it was like one it 1276 01:08:30,480 --> 01:08:34,017 literally went from it was like one every couple days to like one every day 1277 01:08:34,100 --> 01:08:37,197 [laughter] to like two every day. Boom boom boom. 1278 01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:39,117 And then >> so you're doing so that that blog was 1279 01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:43,037 kind of doing the directory thing. So like what was the homepage? Uh, so the 1280 01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:45,597 homepage was just basically trying to explain even what this thing is that 1281 01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:49,197 you're looking at, right? Basic basically basic instructions. Um, but 1282 01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,277 then there was a button there was a button that said what's new and what 1283 01:08:51,360 --> 01:08:54,237 most people did was they went to for obvious reasons went to what's new. 1284 01:08:54,320 --> 01:08:57,997 >> But like it it was so it was so mind-blowing at that point just the 1285 01:08:58,080 --> 01:09:00,637 basic idea and this was this was like you know this is the basic idea of the 1286 01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:03,997 internet but people could see it for the first time. The basic idea was look, you 1287 01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:06,317 know, some, you know, it's like literally it's like an Indian restaurant 1288 01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:09,997 in like Bristol, England has like put their menu on the web and people were 1289 01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:15,037 like, "Wow, >> cuz like that's the first restaurant menu on the web." 1290 01:09:15,120 --> 01:09:16,717 >> Yeah. >> And I don't have to be in Bristol and I 1291 01:09:16,800 --> 01:09:18,797 don't know if I'm ever going to go to Bristol and I don't even like Indian 1292 01:09:18,880 --> 01:09:22,397 food and like wow, >> right? Um and it was like that uh the 1293 01:09:22,480 --> 01:09:26,637 first web uh the first streaming video thing was a uh it was it was in another 1294 01:09:26,720 --> 01:09:29,037 England some Oxford or something. Um, 1295 01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:33,997 some [snorts] guy uh put uh his coffee pot up as the first uh streaming uh uh 1296 01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:37,117 video thing and he put it on the web cuz he literally it was the coffee pot down 1297 01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:39,197 the hall. >> Yeah. >> And he wanted to see when he needed to 1298 01:09:39,280 --> 01:09:42,957 go refill it. Um but there were you know there was a point when there were 1299 01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,117 thousands of people like watching that coffee pot 1300 01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:47,277 >> cuz it was the first thing you could watch. 1301 01:09:47,360 --> 01:09:48,477 >> Well, [laughter] but Right. 1302 01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:52,877 >> Isn't [snorts] uh were you able to kind of infer you know if that Indian 1303 01:09:52,960 --> 01:09:56,797 restaurant could go online >> then you're like >> they all will. 1304 01:09:56,880 --> 01:09:58,317 >> They all will. >> Yeah. Exactly. 1305 01:09:58,400 --> 01:10:00,957 >> So, you felt that >> Yeah. Now, you know, look, it's still a 1306 01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:03,117 stretch, right? It's still a stretch because it's just like, okay, is it, you 1307 01:10:03,200 --> 01:10:05,357 know, you're still in this zone which is like, okay, is this a nerd thing? Is 1308 01:10:05,440 --> 01:10:08,317 this a real person thing? >> Um, by the way, we, you know, there was 1309 01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:09,997 a wall of skepticism from the media. 1310 01:10:10,080 --> 01:10:12,557 Like, they just like everybody was just like, yeah, this is the crazy, is this 1311 01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:15,197 just like dumb? This is not, you know, this is not for regular people at that 1312 01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:17,517 time. >> Um, and so you had to think through 1313 01:10:17,600 --> 01:10:20,957 that. And then, look, it was still it was still hard to get on the internet at 1314 01:10:21,040 --> 01:10:24,077 that point, right? So you could get kind of this weird bastardized version if you 1315 01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:26,237 were on AOL, which wasn't really real. 1316 01:10:26,320 --> 01:10:31,277 Or you had to go like learn what an ISP was. Um, you know, in those days PCs 1317 01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:34,237 actually didn't have TCP IP drivers come pre-installed. So you had to learn what 1318 01:10:34,320 --> 01:10:37,917 a TCP IP driver was. You had to buy a modem. You had to install driver 1319 01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:42,397 software. Um, I have a comedy routine I do some like 20 minutes long describing 1320 01:10:42,480 --> 01:10:44,397 all the steps required to actually get on the internet at this [laughter] 1321 01:10:44,480 --> 01:10:48,637 point. Um and so you you had to you had to look through these practical well and 1322 01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:51,597 then and then uh and then speed performance 1323 01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:56,397 >> 144 modems right like it was like watching you know glue dry um like and 1324 01:10:56,480 --> 01:10:59,117 so you had to you had to there were basically a sequence of bets that we 1325 01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:01,517 made where you basically needed to look through that current state of affairs 1326 01:11:01,600 --> 01:11:04,797 and say actually there's going to be so much demand for once people figure this 1327 01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:06,957 out there's going to be so much demand for it that all of these practical 1328 01:11:07,040 --> 01:11:08,877 problems are are going to get fixed. 1329 01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:15,117 Some people say that the anticipation makes the the destination that much more 1330 01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:17,437 exciting. >> Do you remember progressive JPEGs? 1331 01:11:17,520 --> 01:11:22,237 >> Yeah. Do I do I >> So for for kids in the audience, right? 1332 01:11:22,320 --> 01:11:24,797 >> For kids in the audience. >> We you used to have to watch an image 1333 01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:28,237 load like a line at a time, but it turns out there was this thing with JPEGs 1334 01:11:28,320 --> 01:11:30,717 where you could you could load basically every fourth 1335 01:11:30,800 --> 01:11:32,717 >> you could load like every fourth uh line 1336 01:11:32,800 --> 01:11:35,597 and then and then you could sweep back through again. And so you could like 1337 01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:38,797 render a fuzzy version image up front and then it would like resolve into the 1338 01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:41,917 detailed one. And that was like a big UI breakthrough because it gave you 1339 01:11:42,000 --> 01:11:45,677 something to watch. >> Yeah. And uh you know there's 1340 01:11:45,760 --> 01:11:50,557 applications in various domains for that. Uh [laughter] 1341 01:11:50,640 --> 01:11:52,557 >> well there's a big fight. There was a big fight early on about whether there 1342 01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:54,557 should be images on the web. Um [clears throat] 1343 01:11:54,640 --> 01:11:56,477 >> for that reason for like sexualization. 1344 01:11:56,560 --> 01:11:58,397 >> No not not explicitly that that did come 1345 01:11:58,480 --> 01:12:01,277 up but it wasn't even that. It was more just like all the serious. The argument 1346 01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:04,157 went the purists basically said all the serious information in the world is 1347 01:12:04,240 --> 01:12:07,597 text. If you introduce images you you basically going to bring in all the 1348 01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:10,717 trivial stuff. You're going to bring in magazines and you know all this crazy 1349 01:12:10,800 --> 01:12:13,517 just you know stuff that you know people you know it's going to distract from 1350 01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:16,077 it's going to go take take the way from being serious to being frivolous. 1351 01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:20,717 >> Well was there any uh doomer type arguments about uh the internet 1352 01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:26,157 destroying all of human civilization or destroying some fundamental fabric of 1353 01:12:26,240 --> 01:12:29,037 human civilization. >> Yeah. So those days it was all around 1354 01:12:29,120 --> 01:12:33,277 crime and terrorism. Um so those arguments happened. Um you know but 1355 01:12:33,360 --> 01:12:35,757 there was no sense yet of the internet having like an effect on politics 1356 01:12:35,840 --> 01:12:38,957 because that was that was way too too far off. But um there was an enormous 1357 01:12:39,040 --> 01:12:41,197 panic at the time around cyber crime. 1358 01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:43,917 There was like enormous panic that like your credit card number would get stolen 1359 01:12:44,000 --> 01:12:46,957 and you'd your life savings would be drained and then you know criminals were 1360 01:12:47,040 --> 01:12:50,557 going to there was oh um when we started one of the things we did one of the the 1361 01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:54,157 Netscape browser was the first widely used piece of consumer software that had 1362 01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:57,997 strong encryption built in. made it available to ordinary people and at that 1363 01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:02,317 time strong encryption was actually illegal to export out of the US. So we 1364 01:13:02,400 --> 01:13:05,597 could field that product in the US. We could not export it because it was it 1365 01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:09,197 was classified as ammunition. Um so the Netscape browser was on a restricted 1366 01:13:09,280 --> 01:13:11,997 list along with the tomahawk missile as [snorts] being something that could not 1367 01:13:12,080 --> 01:13:15,117 be exported. So we we had to make a second version with deliberately weak 1368 01:13:15,200 --> 01:13:19,197 encryption to sell overseas with a big logo on the box saying do not trust this 1369 01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:22,317 which it turns out makes it hard to sell software uh when [laughter] it's got a 1370 01:13:22,400 --> 01:13:25,917 big logo that says don't trust it. Um, and then we had to spend five years 1371 01:13:26,000 --> 01:13:30,237 fighting the US government to get them to basically stop trying to do this. But 1372 01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:33,197 because the fear the fear was terrorists are going to use encryption, right, to 1373 01:13:33,280 --> 01:13:36,157 like plot, you know, all these all these all these things. 1374 01:13:36,240 --> 01:13:39,357 >> Um, and then, you know, we we responded with, well, actually, we need encryption 1375 01:13:39,440 --> 01:13:42,317 to be able to secure systems so that the terrorists and the criminals can't get 1376 01:13:42,400 --> 01:13:45,517 into them. So that anyway, that was the that was the 1990s fight. 1377 01:13:45,600 --> 01:13:49,117 >> So, uh, can you say something about some of the details of the software 1378 01:13:49,200 --> 01:13:53,837 engineering challenges required to build these browsers? I mean the engineering 1379 01:13:53,920 --> 01:13:55,517 challenges of creating a product that 1380 01:13:55,600 --> 01:13:58,157 hasn't really existed before that can 1381 01:13:58,240 --> 01:14:02,077 have such uh almost like limitless uh 1382 01:14:02,160 --> 01:14:04,317 impact on the world with the internet. 1383 01:14:04,400 --> 01:14:06,877 >> So there was a really key bet that we made at the time which is very 1384 01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:10,157 controversial which was core to core to how it was engineered which was are we 1385 01:14:10,240 --> 01:14:13,197 optimizing for performance um or for ease of creation. 1386 01:14:13,280 --> 01:14:15,037 >> Yeah. And in those days the pressure was 1387 01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:17,997 very intense to optimize for performance because the network connections were so 1388 01:14:18,080 --> 01:14:19,917 slow and also the computers were so 1389 01:14:20,000 --> 01:14:25,107 slow. Um and so if you had I mentioned the progressive JPEGs like if if if 1390 01:14:25,190 --> 01:14:26,957 [laughter] there there's an alternate world in 1391 01:14:27,040 --> 01:14:29,677 which we optimized for performance and it just you had just a much more 1392 01:14:29,760 --> 01:14:34,317 pleasant experience right up front. But what we got by not doing that was we got 1393 01:14:34,400 --> 01:14:38,317 ease of creation. And the way that we got ease of creation was all of the 1394 01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,917 protocols and formats were in text not in binary. Mhm. 1395 01:14:42,000 --> 01:14:44,797 >> Um, [clears throat] and so HTTP isn't text, by the way. And this was an 1396 01:14:44,880 --> 01:14:47,757 internet tradition, by the way, that we picked up, but we continued it. HTTP is 1397 01:14:47,840 --> 01:14:51,117 text. Um, and HTML is text, and then every else, everything else that 1398 01:14:51,200 --> 01:14:54,957 followed is text. Um, as a result, and by the way, you can imagine purist 1399 01:14:55,040 --> 01:14:57,917 engineers saying, "This is insane. You have very limited bandwidth. Why are you 1400 01:14:58,000 --> 01:15:00,477 wasting any time sending text? You should be encoding the stuff into 1401 01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:03,677 binary, and it'll be much faster." And of course, the answer is that's correct. 1402 01:15:03,760 --> 01:15:06,717 Um, but what you get when you make it text is all of a sudden, well, the big 1403 01:15:06,800 --> 01:15:09,277 breakthrough was the view source function, right? So the fact that you 1404 01:15:09,360 --> 01:15:12,477 could look at a web page, you could hit view source and you could see the HTML, 1405 01:15:12,560 --> 01:15:15,037 that was how people learned how to make web pages, right? 1406 01:15:15,120 --> 01:15:19,117 >> It's so interesting because the stuff we take for granted now 1407 01:15:19,200 --> 01:15:22,957 is uh man that was fundamental to the development of the web to be able to 1408 01:15:23,040 --> 01:15:25,197 have HTML just right there. All the 1409 01:15:25,280 --> 01:15:30,317 ghetto mess that is HTML, all [snorts] the sort of almost biological like 1410 01:15:30,400 --> 01:15:34,877 messiness of HTML and then having the browser try 1411 01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:38,237 to interpret that mess. >> Yeah, exactly. to show something reasonable. 1412 01:15:38,320 --> 01:15:40,877 >> Well, and then there was this internet principle that we inherited which was 1413 01:15:40,960 --> 01:15:45,117 emit, what was it? Emit cautiously, emit conservatively, interpret liberally. So, 1414 01:15:45,200 --> 01:15:48,397 it basically meant if you're the design principle was if you're if you're 1415 01:15:48,480 --> 01:15:51,437 creating like a web editor that's going to emit HTML, like do it as cleanly as 1416 01:15:51,520 --> 01:15:53,597 you can, >> but you actually want the browser to 1417 01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:56,477 interpret liberally, which is you actually want users to be able to make 1418 01:15:56,560 --> 01:15:58,557 all kinds of mistakes and for it to still work. 1419 01:15:58,640 --> 01:16:01,997 >> Yeah. And so the browser rendering engines to this day have all of this 1420 01:16:02,080 --> 01:16:05,277 spaghetti code crazy stuff where they can they're they're resilient to all 1421 01:16:05,360 --> 01:16:08,557 kinds of crazy HTML mistakes. And so and literally what I always had in my head 1422 01:16:08,640 --> 01:16:10,957 is like there's an 8-year-old or an 11-year-old somewhere and they're doing 1423 01:16:11,040 --> 01:16:13,117 a view source. They're doing a cut and paste and they're trying to make a web 1424 01:16:13,200 --> 01:16:16,797 page for their turtle or whatever >> and like they leave out a slash and they 1425 01:16:16,880 --> 01:16:19,197 leave out an angle bracket and they do this and they do that and it still 1426 01:16:19,280 --> 01:16:21,837 works. It's it's it's also like I don't 1427 01:16:21,920 --> 01:16:23,917 often think about this but you know 1428 01:16:24,000 --> 01:16:26,797 programming you know C++ C++ all those 1429 01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:31,117 languages list the compiled languages the interpreted languages Python Pearl 1430 01:16:31,200 --> 01:16:35,277 all that they the brace have to be all correct it's like everything has to be 1431 01:16:35,360 --> 01:16:38,157 perfect >> brutal >> and then >> autistic 1432 01:16:38,240 --> 01:16:41,917 >> you forget all right it's systematic and 1433 01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:43,997 rigorous let's go there [laughter] 1434 01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:48,317 but you forget that the uh uh the web 1435 01:16:48,400 --> 01:16:50,637 with JavaScript script eventually. 1436 01:16:50,720 --> 01:16:54,157 >> Uh, and HTML is allowed to be messy in 1437 01:16:54,240 --> 01:16:57,437 the way for the first time 1438 01:16:57,520 --> 01:17:01,517 >> messy in the way biological systems could be messy. It's like the only thing 1439 01:17:01,600 --> 01:17:04,557 computers were allowed to be messy on for the first time. 1440 01:17:04,640 --> 01:17:08,317 >> It used to offend me. So I I I grew up on Unix. So I I I I worked on Unix. I 1441 01:17:08,400 --> 01:17:11,277 was a Unix native for all the way through this period. Um, and so and it 1442 01:17:11,360 --> 01:17:14,477 used to drive me bananas when it would do the the segmentation fault in the 1443 01:17:14,560 --> 01:17:17,597 core dump file. Just like it's like, you know, it's like literally there's like 1444 01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:21,117 an error in the code. the math is off by one and it core >> dumps 1445 01:17:21,200 --> 01:17:23,517 >> and I'm in the core dump trying to analyze it and trying to reconstruct 1446 01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:26,237 what and I'm just like this is ridiculous like the computer ought to be 1447 01:17:26,320 --> 01:17:29,357 smart enough to be able to know that if it's off by one okay fine and it keeps 1448 01:17:29,440 --> 01:17:31,757 running >> and I would go ask all the experts like 1449 01:17:31,840 --> 01:17:33,837 why can't it just keep running and they'd explain to me well because all 1450 01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:37,357 the downstream repercussions and blah blah and I'm like this still like you 1451 01:17:37,440 --> 01:17:40,317 know this is we're forcing the human 1452 01:17:40,400 --> 01:17:45,037 creator to live to your point in this hyperlit literal world of perfection. 1453 01:17:45,120 --> 01:17:48,077 >> Yeah. And I [snorts] was just like that's that's just that's just bad. And 1454 01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:50,557 by the way, you know, what happens with that, of course, just what what happened 1455 01:17:50,640 --> 01:17:53,837 with with coding at that point, which is you get a high priesthood. You know, 1456 01:17:53,920 --> 01:17:57,037 there's a small number of people who are really good at doing exactly that. Most 1457 01:17:57,120 --> 01:17:59,677 people can't and most people are excluded from it. And so, actually, that 1458 01:17:59,760 --> 01:18:03,437 that was where that there's where I picked up that idea was um uh was like 1459 01:18:03,520 --> 01:18:06,477 no, no, you want you want you want these things to be resilient to error in all 1460 01:18:06,560 --> 01:18:09,437 kinds. And this this would drive the purists absolutely crazy. Like I got 1461 01:18:09,520 --> 01:18:12,477 attacked on this like a lot cuz yeah I mean like every time I you know all the 1462 01:18:12,560 --> 01:18:15,517 purists who were like into all this like markup language stuff and formats and 1463 01:18:15,600 --> 01:18:18,077 codes and all this stuff they would be like you know you can't you're you're 1464 01:18:18,160 --> 01:18:21,197 encouraging bad behavior because >> Oh so they wanted the browser to give 1465 01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:26,077 you an a sec fault error anytime there was a >> Yeah. Yeah. They wanted to be a cop 1466 01:18:26,160 --> 01:18:30,157 right. They wanted Yeah. That that was a very any any properly training 1467 01:18:30,240 --> 01:18:33,277 credential engineer [laughter] would be like that's not how you build these 1468 01:18:33,360 --> 01:18:36,157 systems. >> That's such a bold move to say no it doesn't have to be. 1469 01:18:36,240 --> 01:18:38,477 >> Yeah. Now, like I said, the the good news for me is the internet kind of had 1470 01:18:38,560 --> 01:18:42,237 that tradition already. Um, but we but having said that, like we pushed it, 1471 01:18:42,320 --> 01:18:44,237 >> we pushed it way out. But the other thing we did, going back to the 1472 01:18:44,320 --> 01:18:46,637 performance thing, was we gave up a lot of performance. We made that that 1473 01:18:46,720 --> 01:18:49,517 initial experience for the first few years was pretty painful. But but the 1474 01:18:49,600 --> 01:18:52,877 bet there was actually an economic bet which was basically the demand for the 1475 01:18:52,960 --> 01:18:56,077 web would basically mean that there would be a surge in supply of broadband. 1476 01:18:56,160 --> 01:19:00,237 Like we we because the question was okay how do you get how do you how do you get 1477 01:19:00,320 --> 01:19:04,797 the phone companies which are not famous in those days for doing new things at 1478 01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:06,637 huge cost for like speculative reasons. 1479 01:19:06,720 --> 01:19:09,597 Like how do you get them to build out broadband you know spend billions of 1480 01:19:09,680 --> 01:19:12,317 dollars doing that and you know you could go meet with them and try to talk 1481 01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:15,197 them into it or you could just have a thing where it's just very clear that 1482 01:19:15,280 --> 01:19:17,677 it's going to be that they that people love that's going to be better 1483 01:19:17,760 --> 01:19:21,197 >> if it's faster. And so that that there there was a period there and this was 1484 01:19:21,280 --> 01:19:23,597 this was fraught with some peril but there was a period there where it's like 1485 01:19:23,680 --> 01:19:27,757 we knew the experience was suboptimized because we were trying to force the 1486 01:19:27,840 --> 01:19:29,677 emergence of demand for broadband. 1487 01:19:29,760 --> 01:19:31,997 >> Sure. >> Which is in fact what happened. 1488 01:19:32,080 --> 01:19:36,557 >> So you had to figure out how to display this text HTML text. 1489 01:19:36,640 --> 01:19:40,317 >> So the blue links and the purple links and there's no standards. Is there 1490 01:19:40,400 --> 01:19:44,877 standards at that time? >> No. So >> there really still isn't. 1491 01:19:44,960 --> 01:19:48,797 Well, there's like there's implied implied standards, right? 1492 01:19:48,880 --> 01:19:51,517 >> And they, you know, there's all these kinds of new features that are being 1493 01:19:51,600 --> 01:19:55,437 added with like CSS, what like what kind of stuff a browser should be able to 1494 01:19:55,520 --> 01:19:57,117 support, features within languages 1495 01:19:57,200 --> 01:20:03,197 within JavaScript and so on. >> But you you b you're setting standards 1496 01:20:03,280 --> 01:20:05,357 on the fly. >> Yeah. >> Yourself. 1497 01:20:05,440 --> 01:20:07,837 >> Yeah. >> Well, to this day, if you if you create 1498 01:20:07,920 --> 01:20:11,597 a web page that has no CSS stylesheet, the browser will render it however it 1499 01:20:11,680 --> 01:20:14,317 wants to. >> Yeah. >> Right. So this was one of the things 1500 01:20:14,400 --> 01:20:17,597 there was this idea this idea at the time in how these systems were built 1501 01:20:17,680 --> 01:20:21,677 which is separation of content from format or separation of uh yeah content 1502 01:20:21,760 --> 01:20:25,037 from appearance. >> Um and that's still people don't really 1503 01:20:25,120 --> 01:20:27,597 use that anymore because everybody wants to determine how things look and so they 1504 01:20:27,680 --> 01:20:30,077 use CSS but um it's still in there that 1505 01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:31,277 you can just let the browser do all the 1506 01:20:31,360 --> 01:20:35,037 work. I still like the like uh really 1507 01:20:35,120 --> 01:20:37,597 basic websites, but that could be just 1508 01:20:37,680 --> 01:20:42,877 old school kids these days with their fancy responsive websites that don't 1509 01:20:42,960 --> 01:20:45,437 actually have much content but have a lot of visual elements. 1510 01:20:45,520 --> 01:20:48,797 >> Well, that's one of the things that's fun about chat, you know, about JGBT is 1511 01:20:48,880 --> 01:20:51,357 like >> back to the basics. >> Back [clears throat] to just text. 1512 01:20:51,440 --> 01:20:53,837 >> Yeah. >> Right. And it, you know, there is this 1513 01:20:53,920 --> 01:20:58,397 pattern in human creativity and media where you end up back at text. And I 1514 01:20:58,480 --> 01:21:01,117 think there's, you know, there's something powerful in there. Is there 1515 01:21:01,200 --> 01:21:04,077 some other stuff you remember like the purple links? There were some 1516 01:21:04,160 --> 01:21:05,757 interesting design decisions that had to 1517 01:21:05,840 --> 01:21:11,197 kind of come up that uh we have today or we don't have today that were temporary. 1518 01:21:11,280 --> 01:21:15,517 >> So uh we made I made the background gray. I hated reading text on white uh 1519 01:21:15,600 --> 01:21:17,597 uh backgrounds and so I made the background gray. Everybody can. 1520 01:21:17,680 --> 01:21:19,517 >> Do you regret? >> No. Do you regret this? 1521 01:21:19,600 --> 01:21:21,517 >> No. No. No. That's that decision I think 1522 01:21:21,600 --> 01:21:24,717 has been reversed. But but now I'm happy though because now dark mode is the 1523 01:21:24,800 --> 01:21:27,997 thing. So >> So it wasn't about gray. It was just you 1524 01:21:28,080 --> 01:21:29,197 didn't want white background. 1525 01:21:29,280 --> 01:21:32,317 >> Strain my eyes. Stranger eyes. 1526 01:21:32,400 --> 01:21:36,637 Interesting. Um, and then there's a bunch of other decisions. I'm sure 1527 01:21:36,720 --> 01:21:40,077 there's an interesting history of the development of HTML and CSS and how 1528 01:21:40,160 --> 01:21:42,957 those interface and JavaScript. And 1529 01:21:43,040 --> 01:21:45,837 there's this whole Java applet thing. 1530 01:21:45,920 --> 01:21:47,997 >> Well, the big one probably JavaScript. 1531 01:21:48,080 --> 01:21:51,837 CSS was after me, so I didn't that was not me. But, um, JavaScript was the big 1532 01:21:51,920 --> 01:21:55,757 JavaScript maybe was the biggest of the whole thing. That was us. Um, and um, 1533 01:21:55,840 --> 01:21:59,197 and that was basically a bet. It was a bet on two things. One is that the world 1534 01:21:59,280 --> 01:22:01,437 wanted a new front-end scripting language. 1535 01:22:01,520 --> 01:22:04,237 >> Um, and then the other was we I thought at the time the world wanted a new 1536 01:22:04,320 --> 01:22:07,437 backend scripting language. Um, so JavaScript was designed from the 1537 01:22:07,520 --> 01:22:11,277 beginning to be both front end and back end. And then it failed as a backend 1538 01:22:11,360 --> 01:22:15,357 scripting language and uh Java 1 um for a long time and then Python, Pearl and 1539 01:22:15,440 --> 01:22:20,317 other things, PHP um and Ruby. But now JavaScript is back. And so 1540 01:22:20,400 --> 01:22:23,837 >> I wonder if everything in the end will run on JavaScript. It it see it seems 1541 01:22:23,920 --> 01:22:28,157 like it is the um and by the way, let me give a shout out to uh to um uh uh 1542 01:22:28,240 --> 01:22:32,557 Brendan Ike uh was the uh basically the oneman inventor of um of JavaScript. 1543 01:22:32,640 --> 01:22:33,837 >> If you're interested to learn more about 1544 01:22:33,920 --> 01:22:37,677 Brendan Ike, he's been on this podcast previously. [laughter] >> Exactly. 1545 01:22:37,760 --> 01:22:39,277 >> So, he wrote JavaScript over a summer. 1546 01:22:39,360 --> 01:22:42,637 Um and it it I I mean I think it is fair it is fair to say now that it's the most 1547 01:22:42,720 --> 01:22:46,717 widely used language in the world and it seems to only be gaining in in um in its 1548 01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:50,157 uh in its range of adoption. In the software world, there's quite a few 1549 01:22:50,240 --> 01:22:52,077 stories of somebody over a weekend or 1550 01:22:52,160 --> 01:22:55,197 over a week or over a summer writing 1551 01:22:55,280 --> 01:22:59,837 some of the most uh impactful, revolutionary pieces of software 1552 01:22:59,920 --> 01:23:01,917 >> ever. That that should be inspiring. 1553 01:23:02,000 --> 01:23:03,437 Yes, >> very inspiring. I'll give you another 1554 01:23:03,520 --> 01:23:07,837 one. SSL. Um, so SSL was the security protocol. That was us. And that was a 1555 01:23:07,920 --> 01:23:10,797 crazy idea at the time, which was let's take all the native protocols and let's 1556 01:23:10,880 --> 01:23:13,837 wrap them in a security wrapper. That was a guy named Kip Hickman who wrote 1557 01:23:13,920 --> 01:23:18,477 that over a summer. Uh, one guy. Um and then look today sitting here today like 1558 01:23:18,560 --> 01:23:22,317 the transformer like at Google was a small handful of people and then you 1559 01:23:22,400 --> 01:23:26,637 know the number of people who have did like the core work on GPT it's not that 1560 01:23:26,720 --> 01:23:31,197 many people it's a pretty small handful of people um and so yeah the pattern in 1561 01:23:31,280 --> 01:23:35,597 software repeatedly over a very long time has been it's it's a Jeff Jeff 1562 01:23:35,680 --> 01:23:39,437 Bezos always had the two pizza rule uh for teams at Amazon which is any team 1563 01:23:39,520 --> 01:23:42,717 needs to be able to be fed with two pizzas if you need the third pizza you 1564 01:23:42,800 --> 01:23:45,997 have too many people and I I think that's I think that's I I think it's 1565 01:23:46,080 --> 01:23:47,677 actually the one pizza rule. >> Yeah. 1566 01:23:47,760 --> 01:23:51,677 >> For the for the really creative work, I think it's two people, three people. 1567 01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:55,117 >> Well, that's you see that with certain open source projects, like so much is 1568 01:23:55,200 --> 01:23:56,397 done by like one or two people. 1569 01:23:56,480 --> 01:24:00,397 >> Yeah. like it's it's it's so incredible and that's why you see that gives me so 1570 01:24:00,480 --> 01:24:02,877 much hope about the open source movement 1571 01:24:02,960 --> 01:24:06,557 in this new age of AI where um you know 1572 01:24:06,640 --> 01:24:10,397 just recently having had a conversation with with Mark Zuckerberg of all people 1573 01:24:10,480 --> 01:24:13,037 who's all in on open source which is so 1574 01:24:13,120 --> 01:24:16,157 interesting to see and so inspiring to 1575 01:24:16,240 --> 01:24:18,957 see cuz like releasing these models it 1576 01:24:19,040 --> 01:24:21,037 is scary it is potentially very 1577 01:24:21,120 --> 01:24:23,517 dangerous and we'll talk about that but 1578 01:24:23,600 --> 01:24:26,317 it's also like if you believe in the 1579 01:24:26,400 --> 01:24:31,597 goodness of most people and in the skill set of most people and the desire to do 1580 01:24:31,680 --> 01:24:35,757 good in the world. That's really exciting cuz it's not putting it these 1581 01:24:35,840 --> 01:24:39,277 models into the centralized control of big corporations, the government and so 1582 01:24:39,360 --> 01:24:41,117 on. It's putting it in the in the hands 1583 01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:46,717 of a teen teenage kid with like a dream in his eyes. I don't know. That's um 1584 01:24:46,800 --> 01:24:49,677 >> that's beautiful. >> And look this stuff AI ought to make the 1585 01:24:49,760 --> 01:24:53,277 individual coder obviously far more productive, right? By like, you know, a 1586 01:24:53,360 --> 01:24:57,597 thousandx or something. And so you ought to open source like the not just the 1587 01:24:57,680 --> 01:25:00,717 future of open source AI but the future of open source everything. We ought to 1588 01:25:00,800 --> 01:25:04,557 have a world now of super coders right who are building things as open source 1589 01:25:04,640 --> 01:25:08,637 with one or two people that were inconceivable you know 5 years ago. Um 1590 01:25:08,720 --> 01:25:11,037 you know the level of kind of hyper productivity we're going to get out of 1591 01:25:11,120 --> 01:25:12,797 our best and brightest I think is going to go way up. 1592 01:25:12,880 --> 01:25:15,917 >> It's going to be interesting. We'll we'll talk about it. But let's just to 1593 01:25:16,000 --> 01:25:18,557 linger a little bit on Netscape. 1594 01:25:18,640 --> 01:25:22,637 Netscape was acquired in 1999 for 4.3 1595 01:25:22,720 --> 01:25:26,957 billion by AOL. What was that? Uh what was that like? What was what were some 1596 01:25:27,040 --> 01:25:30,477 memorable aspects of that? >> Well, that was the height of the dot 1597 01:25:30,560 --> 01:25:35,197 boom bubble bust. I mean, that was the that was the frenzy. Um if you watch 1598 01:25:35,280 --> 01:25:38,317 Succession, that was the that was like what they did in the fourth season with 1599 01:25:38,400 --> 01:25:41,837 uh the with Gojo and the merger with the with their so it was like the height of 1600 01:25:41,920 --> 01:25:45,437 like one of those kind of dynamics. And so >> would you recommend Succession by the 1601 01:25:45,520 --> 01:25:47,617 way? I'm more of a Yellowstone guy. 1602 01:25:47,700 --> 01:25:51,917 [laughter] Yellowstone's very American. I'm I'm very proud of you. That's that is 1603 01:25:52,000 --> 01:25:55,437 >> I just talked to Matthew McConna and I'm full on Texan at this point. 1604 01:25:55,520 --> 01:25:57,437 >> Good. I hardily approve. Um 1605 01:25:57,520 --> 01:26:02,717 >> and uh he will be doing the sequel to Yellowstone. So very exciting. Anyway, 1606 01:26:02,800 --> 01:26:06,797 >> I can't wait. >> Uh so that's a rude interruption by me 1607 01:26:06,880 --> 01:26:09,597 uh by way of succession. 1608 01:26:09,680 --> 01:26:12,557 Uh, so that was at the height of the 1609 01:26:12,640 --> 01:26:16,957 >> deal making and money and just the fur flying and like craziness. And so yeah, 1610 01:26:17,040 --> 01:26:19,837 it was just one of those it was just like I mean this the entire Netscape 1611 01:26:19,920 --> 01:26:23,437 thing from start to finish was four years. Um, which was like for for one of 1612 01:26:23,520 --> 01:26:26,237 these companies it's just like incredibly fast you know it we went 1613 01:26:26,320 --> 01:26:29,437 public 18 months after we got after we were founded which virtually never 1614 01:26:29,520 --> 01:26:33,117 happens. So it was just this incredibly fast kind of meteor streaking across the 1615 01:26:33,200 --> 01:26:36,557 sky. Um and then of course it was this and then there was just this explosion 1616 01:26:36,640 --> 01:26:39,517 right that happened because then it was almost immediately followed by the do 1617 01:26:39,600 --> 01:26:42,637 crash. >> It was then followed by AOL buying Time 1618 01:26:42,720 --> 01:26:46,077 Warner which again is the succession guys kind of play with that uh which 1619 01:26:46,160 --> 01:26:49,437 turned out to be a disastrous deal. Um you know one of the famous you know kind 1620 01:26:49,520 --> 01:26:53,597 of disasters in business history. Um and then um and then you know what became an 1621 01:26:53,680 --> 01:26:56,717 internet depression on the other side of that. But then in that depression in the 1622 01:26:56,800 --> 01:27:01,517 2000s was the beginning of broadband and smartphones and web 2.0 know right and 1623 01:27:01,600 --> 01:27:05,597 then social media and search and every SAS and everything that came out of that. So 1624 01:27:05,680 --> 01:27:10,317 >> what did you learn from just the the acquisition? I mean this is so much money. 1625 01:27:10,400 --> 01:27:12,557 >> What you what what's interesting cuz I 1626 01:27:12,640 --> 01:27:15,037 it must have been very new to you that 1627 01:27:15,120 --> 01:27:19,197 the software stuff you can make so much 1628 01:27:19,280 --> 01:27:22,717 money. There's so much money swimming around. I mean I'm sure the ideas of 1629 01:27:22,800 --> 01:27:24,557 investment were starting to get born there. 1630 01:27:24,640 --> 01:27:26,237 >> Yes. Let me get so let me lay it lay it. 1631 01:27:26,320 --> 01:27:28,637 So here's here's a thing I I don't know if I figured out then but figured out 1632 01:27:28,720 --> 01:27:32,797 later which is um software is a technology that it's like a you know the 1633 01:27:32,880 --> 01:27:36,317 concept of the philosopher stone the philosopher stone and alchemy transmutes 1634 01:27:36,400 --> 01:27:38,877 light into gold and Newton spent 20 years trying to find the philosopher 1635 01:27:38,960 --> 01:27:42,397 stone never got there. Nobody's ever figured it out. Software is our modern 1636 01:27:42,480 --> 01:27:45,277 philosopher stone. And in economic uh 1637 01:27:45,360 --> 01:27:50,477 terms it transmutes labor into capital >> which is like a super interesting thing. 1638 01:27:50,560 --> 01:27:52,797 And by the way, like Karl Marx is rolling over in his grave right now 1639 01:27:52,880 --> 01:27:56,637 because of course that's complete reputation of his entire theory. Um 1640 01:27:56,720 --> 01:28:00,717 transduc labor into capital which is which is as follows is somebody sits 1641 01:28:00,800 --> 01:28:03,837 down at a keyboard and types a bunch of stuff in 1642 01:28:03,920 --> 01:28:06,317 >> and [clears throat] a capital asset comes out the other side and then 1643 01:28:06,400 --> 01:28:11,117 somebody buys that capital asset for a billion dollars. Like that's amazing, 1644 01:28:11,200 --> 01:28:14,397 right? It's literally creating value right out of thin air, right? Out of out 1645 01:28:14,480 --> 01:28:19,037 of purely human thought, right? Um, and so that that that's there are many 1646 01:28:19,120 --> 01:28:21,997 things that make software magical and special, but that's the economics. 1647 01:28:22,080 --> 01:28:23,997 >> I wonder what Markx would have thought about that. 1648 01:28:24,080 --> 01:28:26,637 >> Oh, he would have completely broke his brain because of course the whole the 1649 01:28:26,720 --> 01:28:30,237 whole thing was he was you could he you know that kind of technology is 1650 01:28:30,320 --> 01:28:33,517 inconceivable when he was alive. It was all it was all industrial era stuff and 1651 01:28:33,600 --> 01:28:37,517 so the any kind of machinery necessarily involved huge amounts of capital and 1652 01:28:37,600 --> 01:28:40,317 then labor was on the on the on the receiving end of the abuse. 1653 01:28:40,400 --> 01:28:42,797 >> Yep. >> Um right. But [snorts] like software 1654 01:28:42,880 --> 01:28:45,917 software a software engineer is somebody who basically transmutes his own labor 1655 01:28:46,000 --> 01:28:50,317 into an actual capital asset. Um creates permanent value. Well, in fact, it's 1656 01:28:50,400 --> 01:28:53,277 actually very inspiring. Um that's actually more true today than before. So 1657 01:28:53,360 --> 01:28:55,917 when when I was doing software, the assumption was all new software 1658 01:28:56,000 --> 01:29:00,477 basically has a sort of a parabolic sort of life cycle, right? So you you ship 1659 01:29:00,560 --> 01:29:03,917 the thing, people buy it. At some point, everybody who wants it has bought it and 1660 01:29:04,000 --> 01:29:05,357 then it becomes obsolete and it's like 1661 01:29:05,440 --> 01:29:06,957 bananas. Nobody nobody buys old 1662 01:29:07,040 --> 01:29:11,917 software. Um these days um Minecraft um 1663 01:29:12,000 --> 01:29:15,597 Mathematica, you know, Facebook, Google, 1664 01:29:15,680 --> 01:29:19,597 um you have these software assets that are, you know, have been around for 30 1665 01:29:19,680 --> 01:29:21,677 years that are gaining in value every year, 1666 01:29:21,760 --> 01:29:23,837 >> right? And they're just they're being World of Warcraft, right? 1667 01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:26,877 Salesforce.com, like they're being every single year they're being polished and 1668 01:29:26,960 --> 01:29:27,917 polished and polished and polished. 1669 01:29:28,000 --> 01:29:30,317 They're getting better and better, more powerful, more powerful, more valuable, 1670 01:29:30,400 --> 01:29:32,877 more valuable. So we we've entered this era where you can actually have these 1671 01:29:32,960 --> 01:29:35,357 things that actually build out over decades, which by the way is what's 1672 01:29:35,440 --> 01:29:40,397 happening right now with like GPT. Um and so um now and and this is why you 1673 01:29:40,480 --> 01:29:43,037 know there there there is always you know sort of a constant investment 1674 01:29:43,120 --> 01:29:46,317 frenzy around software is because you know look when you start one of these 1675 01:29:46,400 --> 01:29:49,037 things it doesn't always succeed but when it does now you might be building 1676 01:29:49,120 --> 01:29:53,517 an asset that builds value for you know four or five six decades to come. Um you 1677 01:29:53,600 --> 01:29:56,637 know if you have a team of people who have the level of devotion required to 1678 01:29:56,720 --> 01:30:00,317 keep making it better and then the fact that of course everybody's online you 1679 01:30:00,400 --> 01:30:03,117 know there's five billion people that are a click away from any new piece of 1680 01:30:03,200 --> 01:30:06,157 software. So the potential market size for any of these things is, you know, 1681 01:30:06,240 --> 01:30:09,037 nearly infinite. >> They must have been surreal back then, though. 1682 01:30:09,120 --> 01:30:11,677 >> Yeah. Yeah. This was all brand new, right? Yeah. Back then, this was all 1683 01:30:11,760 --> 01:30:14,717 brand new. These were all, you know, brand new. Had you rolled out that 1684 01:30:14,800 --> 01:30:18,557 theory in even 1999, people would have thought you were smoking crack. So that 1685 01:30:18,640 --> 01:30:21,357 that's that's emerged over time. 1686 01:30:21,440 --> 01:30:24,717 >> Well, let's uh now turn back into the 1687 01:30:24,800 --> 01:30:27,677 future. You wrote the essay why AI will 1688 01:30:27,760 --> 01:30:31,917 save the world. Let's start at the very high level. What's the main thesis of 1689 01:30:32,000 --> 01:30:34,957 the essay? Yeah. So, the main thesis on the essay is that what we're dealing 1690 01:30:35,040 --> 01:30:38,717 with here is intelligence. Um, and it's really important to kind of talk about 1691 01:30:38,800 --> 01:30:42,157 the sort of very nature of what intelligence is. And [gasps and sighs] 1692 01:30:42,240 --> 01:30:45,277 fortunately, we have a we have a predecessor to machine intelligence, 1693 01:30:45,360 --> 01:30:48,717 which is human intelligence. And we've got, you know, observations and theories 1694 01:30:48,800 --> 01:30:51,997 over thousands of years for what what what intelligence is in the hands of of 1695 01:30:52,080 --> 01:30:55,197 humans. And and what intelligence is, right? I mean, what it what it literally 1696 01:30:55,280 --> 01:30:58,237 is is the way to uh, you know, capture, process, analyze, synthesize 1697 01:30:58,320 --> 01:31:01,037 information, solve problems. Um but the 1698 01:31:01,120 --> 01:31:05,277 observation of of of intelligence in human hands is that intelligence quite 1699 01:31:05,360 --> 01:31:07,517 literally makes everything better. Um 1700 01:31:07,600 --> 01:31:09,917 and what I mean by that is every kind of 1701 01:31:10,000 --> 01:31:12,557 outcome of like human quality of life 1702 01:31:12,640 --> 01:31:14,557 whether it's education outcomes or 1703 01:31:14,640 --> 01:31:17,197 success of your children or career 1704 01:31:17,280 --> 01:31:20,077 success or health or lifetime 1705 01:31:20,160 --> 01:31:25,037 satisfaction. Um by the way um uh prop uh uh propensity to peacefulness as 1706 01:31:25,120 --> 01:31:28,317 opposed to violence. >> Uh propensity for open-mindedness uh 1707 01:31:28,400 --> 01:31:31,437 versus bigotry. Um those are all associated with higher levels of 1708 01:31:31,520 --> 01:31:33,597 intelligence. >> Smarter people have better outcomes in 1709 01:31:33,680 --> 01:31:36,797 almost as you write in almost every domain of activity. Academic 1710 01:31:36,880 --> 01:31:40,397 achievement, job performance, occupational status, income, creativity, 1711 01:31:40,480 --> 01:31:42,557 physical health, longevity, learning new 1712 01:31:42,640 --> 01:31:47,437 skills, managing complex tasks, leadership, entrepreneurial success, 1713 01:31:47,520 --> 01:31:52,077 conflict resolution, reading comprehension, financial decision-m, 1714 01:31:52,160 --> 01:31:55,037 understanding others perspectives, creative arts, parenting outcomes, and 1715 01:31:55,120 --> 01:32:00,557 life satisfaction. one of the more depressing conversations I've had and I 1716 01:32:00,640 --> 01:32:02,797 don't know why it's depressing. I have to really think through why it's 1717 01:32:02,880 --> 01:32:06,877 depressing but on IQ 1718 01:32:06,960 --> 01:32:10,237 and uh the G factor 1719 01:32:10,320 --> 01:32:15,117 and that that's something in large part is genetic. 1720 01:32:15,200 --> 01:32:16,477 >> Mhm. 1721 01:32:16,560 --> 01:32:19,437 >> And it correlates so much with all of 1722 01:32:19,520 --> 01:32:22,397 these things and success in life. It's 1723 01:32:22,480 --> 01:32:25,197 like all the inspirational stuff we read 1724 01:32:25,280 --> 01:32:28,477 about like if you work hard and so on. 1725 01:32:28,560 --> 01:32:32,317 Damn, it sucks that you're born with a hand that you can't change. 1726 01:32:32,400 --> 01:32:36,157 >> But what if you could? you're you're saying basically a really important 1727 01:32:36,240 --> 01:32:38,957 point and I think it's a uh in in your 1728 01:32:39,040 --> 01:32:40,717 articles 1729 01:32:40,800 --> 01:32:44,477 it it really helped me um it's a nice 1730 01:32:44,560 --> 01:32:49,037 added perspective to think about listen human intelligence the science of 1731 01:32:49,120 --> 01:32:51,197 intelligence has shown scientifically 1732 01:32:51,280 --> 01:32:53,517 that it just makes life easier and 1733 01:32:53,600 --> 01:32:57,677 better the smarter you are and now let's 1734 01:32:57,760 --> 01:33:00,397 look at artificial intelligence 1735 01:33:00,480 --> 01:33:06,077 and if uh that's a way to increase the 1736 01:33:06,160 --> 01:33:10,637 the the some human intelligence then it's only going to make a better life. 1737 01:33:10,720 --> 01:33:12,397 Yeah, that's the argument. And [clears throat] certainly at the 1738 01:33:12,480 --> 01:33:14,637 collective level we could talk about the collective effect of just having more 1739 01:33:14,720 --> 01:33:18,397 intelligence in the world which which will have very big payoff but there's 1740 01:33:18,480 --> 01:33:21,917 also just at the individual level like what if every person has a machine you 1741 01:33:22,000 --> 01:33:26,397 know and the concept of augment Doug Engelar's concept of augmentation um you 1742 01:33:26,480 --> 01:33:28,477 know what if everybody has a an 1743 01:33:28,560 --> 01:33:31,117 assistant and the assistant is you know 1744 01:33:31,200 --> 01:33:35,917 140 IQ um and you happen to be 110 IQ um 1745 01:33:36,000 --> 01:33:39,437 and you've got you know something that basically is infinitely patient and 1746 01:33:39,520 --> 01:33:43,357 knows everything about you and is pulling for you in every possible way, 1747 01:33:43,440 --> 01:33:47,277 wants you to be successful and anytime you find anything confusing or want to 1748 01:33:47,360 --> 01:33:49,357 learn anything or have trouble understanding something or want to 1749 01:33:49,440 --> 01:33:52,317 figure out what to do in a situation, right? Want to figure out how to prepare 1750 01:33:52,400 --> 01:33:55,917 for a job interview like any of these things like it will help you do it and 1751 01:33:56,000 --> 01:34:00,397 it will therefore the combination will effectively be you know effectively 1752 01:34:00,480 --> 01:34:03,517 raise your raise because it will effectively raise your IQ will therefore 1753 01:34:03,600 --> 01:34:06,397 raise the odds of of successful life outcomes in all these areas. So people 1754 01:34:06,480 --> 01:34:09,997 below the this hypothetical 140 IQ, 1755 01:34:10,080 --> 01:34:12,237 it'll pull them up towards 140 IQ. 1756 01:34:12,320 --> 01:34:15,517 >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And then of course, you know, people at people at 140 IQ 1757 01:34:15,600 --> 01:34:18,557 will be able to have a peer, right, to be able to commun, which is great. And 1758 01:34:18,640 --> 01:34:21,437 then people above 140 IQ will have an assistant that they can farm things out 1759 01:34:21,520 --> 01:34:24,877 to. And then look, God willing, you know, at some point these things go from 1760 01:34:24,960 --> 01:34:28,957 future versions go from 140 IQ equivalent to 150 to 160 to [laughter] 1761 01:34:29,040 --> 01:34:31,357 180, right? Like Einstein was estimated 1762 01:34:31,440 --> 01:34:33,757 to be on the order of 160. um you know 1763 01:34:33,840 --> 01:34:39,117 so when we get you know 160 AI like we'll be you know when one assumes 1764 01:34:39,200 --> 01:34:43,117 creating Einstein level breakthroughs and physics and and then and then at 180 1765 01:34:43,200 --> 01:34:46,877 we'll be you know curing cancer and developing warp drive and doing all 1766 01:34:46,960 --> 01:34:50,397 kinds of stuff and so it is quite possibly the case this is the most 1767 01:34:50,480 --> 01:34:52,587 important thing that's ever happened and the best thing that's ever happened 1768 01:34:52,670 --> 01:34:56,237 [snorts] because precisely because it's a lever on this single fundamental 1769 01:34:56,320 --> 01:34:58,957 factor of intelligence which is the thing that drives so much of everything 1770 01:34:59,040 --> 01:35:04,397 else. Can you steal man the case that human plus AI is not always better than 1771 01:35:04,480 --> 01:35:06,797 human for the individual? >> You may have noticed that there's a lot 1772 01:35:06,880 --> 01:35:09,277 of smart running around. >> Sure. Yes. 1773 01:35:09,360 --> 01:35:12,877 >> Right. And so like smart there are certain people where they get smarter, 1774 01:35:12,960 --> 01:35:16,237 you know, they get to be more arrogant, right? So, you know, there's one huge 1775 01:35:16,320 --> 01:35:19,517 flaw. >> Although to push back on that, it might 1776 01:35:19,600 --> 01:35:23,517 be interesting because when the intelligence is not all coming from you, 1777 01:35:23,600 --> 01:35:27,677 but from a from another system, that might actually increase the the amount 1778 01:35:27,760 --> 01:35:31,597 of humility even in the One would hope. Yeah. Um 1779 01:35:31,680 --> 01:35:34,797 >> or it could make more You know, that's I mean that's that's 1780 01:35:34,880 --> 01:35:38,797 for psychology to study. >> Yeah. Exactly. Another one is um smart 1781 01:35:38,880 --> 01:35:41,597 people are very convinced that they, you know, have a more rational view of the 1782 01:35:41,680 --> 01:35:44,477 world and that they have a easier time seeing through conspiracy theories and 1783 01:35:44,560 --> 01:35:47,597 hoaxes and right, you know, sort of crazy beliefs and all that. There 1784 01:35:47,680 --> 01:35:51,037 there's a theory in psychology which is actually smart people. So for sure 1785 01:35:51,120 --> 01:35:53,677 people who aren't as smart are very susceptible to hoaxes and conspiracy 1786 01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:56,957 theories. But it may also be the case that the smarter you get, you become 1787 01:35:57,040 --> 01:36:00,957 susceptible in a different way. uh which is you become very good at marshalling 1788 01:36:01,040 --> 01:36:03,357 facts to fit preconceptions. >> Yes. 1789 01:36:03,440 --> 01:36:07,277 >> Right. Um you become very very good at assembling whatever theories and 1790 01:36:07,360 --> 01:36:11,277 frameworks and pieces of data and graphs and charts you need to validate whatever 1791 01:36:11,360 --> 01:36:12,957 crazy ideas got into your head. 1792 01:36:13,040 --> 01:36:16,397 >> And so you're susceptible in a different way, right? 1793 01:36:16,480 --> 01:36:20,157 >> Uh we're all sheep but [laughter] different colored sheep. 1794 01:36:20,240 --> 01:36:23,677 >> Some sheep are better at justifying it, right? Um and those are, you know, those 1795 01:36:23,760 --> 01:36:27,677 are the smart sheep, right? Um so yeah look like I would say this look like 1796 01:36:27,760 --> 01:36:31,037 there are no panace I am not I am not a utopian. There are no panaceas in life. 1797 01:36:31,120 --> 01:36:34,157 Um there are no like you know I don't believe there are like pure positives. 1798 01:36:34,240 --> 01:36:37,997 I'm not a transcendental kind of person like that. But you know so yeah there 1799 01:36:38,080 --> 01:36:41,597 are going to be issues. Um uh and um and you know look smart people. Another 1800 01:36:41,680 --> 01:36:43,837 thing maybe you could say about smart people is they are more likely to get 1801 01:36:43,920 --> 01:36:46,317 themselves in situations that are you know beyond their grasp you know because 1802 01:36:46,400 --> 01:36:49,197 they're just more confident in their ability to deal with complexity and 1803 01:36:49,280 --> 01:36:52,077 their their eyes become bigger. Their their cognitive eyes become bigger than 1804 01:36:52,160 --> 01:36:54,637 their stomach >> you know. So yeah, you could argue those 1805 01:36:54,720 --> 01:36:59,277 eight different ways. Nevertheless, on net, right, clearly overwhelmingly 1806 01:36:59,360 --> 01:37:02,077 again, if you just extrapolate from what we know about human intelligence, you're 1807 01:37:02,160 --> 01:37:04,397 you're improving so many aspects of life 1808 01:37:04,480 --> 01:37:06,557 if you're upgrading intelligence. 1809 01:37:06,640 --> 01:37:11,597 >> So there'll be assistance at all stages of life. So when you're younger, there's 1810 01:37:11,680 --> 01:37:16,477 for education, all that kind of stuff, and mentorship, all all of this. And uh 1811 01:37:16,560 --> 01:37:19,677 later on as you're doing work and you've developed a skill and you're having a 1812 01:37:19,760 --> 01:37:23,277 profession, you'll have an assistant that helps you excel at that profession. 1813 01:37:23,360 --> 01:37:25,837 So at all stages of life. >> Yeah. I mean look the theory is 1814 01:37:25,920 --> 01:37:29,277 augmentations. This is the Doug Eglebert's terart made this observation 1815 01:37:29,360 --> 01:37:31,997 many many decades ago that you know basically it's like you can have this 1816 01:37:32,080 --> 01:37:34,797 oppositional frame of technology where it's like us versus the machines. But 1817 01:37:34,880 --> 01:37:37,757 what you really do is you use technology to augment human capabilities. 1818 01:37:37,840 --> 01:37:39,117 >> Yeah. >> And and then by the way that's how 1819 01:37:39,200 --> 01:37:41,677 actually the economy develops. That's we can talk about the economic side of 1820 01:37:41,760 --> 01:37:44,477 this, but that that's actually how the economy grows um is through through 1821 01:37:44,560 --> 01:37:47,277 technology augmenting human human potential. 1822 01:37:47,360 --> 01:37:49,517 >> Um and so yeah, and then you you 1823 01:37:49,600 --> 01:37:54,317 basically have a a proxy or you know or or a um you know, a sort of prosthetic. 1824 01:37:54,400 --> 01:37:57,597 Um you know, so like you've got glasses, you've got a wristwatch, you know, 1825 01:37:57,680 --> 01:38:00,637 you've got shoes, you you know you've got these things, you've got a personal 1826 01:38:00,720 --> 01:38:04,237 computer, you've got a word processor, you've got Mathematica, you've got 1827 01:38:04,320 --> 01:38:08,797 Google. This is the late viewed through that lens. AI is the latest in a long 1828 01:38:08,880 --> 01:38:12,157 series of basically augmentation methods uh to be able to raise human 1829 01:38:12,240 --> 01:38:15,357 capabilities. It's just this one is the most powerful one of all because this is 1830 01:38:15,440 --> 01:38:18,477 the one that that goes directly to what what they call fluid intelligence 1831 01:38:18,560 --> 01:38:21,437 >> which is IQ. 1832 01:38:21,520 --> 01:38:24,637 >> Well, there's uh two categories of folks 1833 01:38:24,720 --> 01:38:29,517 that you outline that uh that worry about or highlight the risks of AI and 1834 01:38:29,600 --> 01:38:33,117 you highlight a bunch of different risks. I would love to go through those 1835 01:38:33,200 --> 01:38:35,997 risks and just discuss them, brainstorm 1836 01:38:36,080 --> 01:38:40,237 which ones are serious and which ones are less serious. But first, the the 1837 01:38:40,320 --> 01:38:41,757 Baptist and the bootleggers. What are 1838 01:38:41,840 --> 01:38:44,397 these two interesting groups of folks 1839 01:38:44,480 --> 01:38:49,037 who uh who who worry about uh the effect 1840 01:38:49,120 --> 01:38:51,757 of AI on human civilization >> or say they do? 1841 01:38:51,840 --> 01:38:55,037 >> Say okay. [laughter] Yes. Or say they do. 1842 01:38:55,120 --> 01:38:57,357 >> The Baptists worry, the bootleggers say they do. 1843 01:38:57,440 --> 01:39:01,117 >> Yeah. Um so the Baptist and the bootleggers is a metaphor from economics 1844 01:39:01,200 --> 01:39:03,837 um from what's called development economics and it's this observation that 1845 01:39:03,920 --> 01:39:08,797 when you get social reform movements um in a society um you tend to get two sets 1846 01:39:08,880 --> 01:39:12,717 of people showing up arguing for the social reform um and the the term 1847 01:39:12,800 --> 01:39:15,677 Baptist and bootleggers comes from the American experience with alcohol 1848 01:39:15,760 --> 01:39:21,037 prohibition um and so in the 1900s 1910s um there was this movement that was very 1849 01:39:21,120 --> 01:39:24,637 passionate at the time which basically said alcohol is evil uh and it's 1850 01:39:24,720 --> 01:39:28,637 destroying society. Um by the way there was a lot of evidence to support this. 1851 01:39:28,720 --> 01:39:33,277 Um there was very high rates of uh very high correlations then by the way and 1852 01:39:33,360 --> 01:39:37,357 now uh between rates of physical violence and alcohol use. Um almost all 1853 01:39:37,440 --> 01:39:40,157 violent crimes have either the perpetrator or the victim are both 1854 01:39:40,240 --> 01:39:43,917 drunk. Almost if you see this actually in the work almost all sexual harassment 1855 01:39:44,000 --> 01:39:47,197 cases in the workplace. It's like at a company party and somebody's drunk. Like 1856 01:39:47,280 --> 01:39:50,157 it's it's amazing how often alcohol actually correlates to actually 1857 01:39:50,240 --> 01:39:54,237 dysfunction. It leads to domestic abuse um and so forth, child abuse. And so you 1858 01:39:54,320 --> 01:39:56,797 had this group of people who were like, "Okay, this this is bad stuff and we 1859 01:39:56,880 --> 01:39:59,757 should outlaw it." And and those were quite literally Baptists. Those were 1860 01:39:59,840 --> 01:40:03,117 super committed, you know, hardcore Christian activists in a lot of cases. 1861 01:40:03,200 --> 01:40:07,117 There was this woman uh whose name was Carrie Nation, um who was this older 1862 01:40:07,200 --> 01:40:09,597 woman who had been in this, you know, I don't know, disastrous marriage or 1863 01:40:09,680 --> 01:40:12,637 something and her husband had been abusive and drunk all the time. She 1864 01:40:12,720 --> 01:40:14,957 became the icon of the Baptist uh 1865 01:40:15,040 --> 01:40:19,917 prohibitionist and she was legendary in that era for carrying an axe um and 1866 01:40:20,000 --> 01:40:23,357 doing you know completely on her own doing raids of saloons and like taking 1867 01:40:23,440 --> 01:40:27,997 her axe to all the bottles and tags >> in the back and and so >> so a true believer 1868 01:40:28,080 --> 01:40:31,997 >> an absolute true believer um and with absolutely the purest of intentions and 1869 01:40:32,080 --> 01:40:35,917 and again there's a very important thing here which is there's you could look at 1870 01:40:36,000 --> 01:40:38,397 this cynically and you could say the Baptists are like delusional you know 1871 01:40:38,480 --> 01:40:41,517 extremists but you could also say look they're right like she was you know she 1872 01:40:41,600 --> 01:40:45,437 had a point [snorts] >> like she wasn't wrong about a lot of what she said. 1873 01:40:45,520 --> 01:40:47,677 >> Yeah. >> But it turns out the way the story goes 1874 01:40:47,760 --> 01:40:50,797 is it turns out that there were another set of people who very badly wanted to 1875 01:40:50,880 --> 01:40:54,157 outlaw alcohol in those days and those were the bootleggers which was organized 1876 01:40:54,240 --> 01:40:58,557 crime that stood to make a huge amount of money if legal alcohol sales were 1877 01:40:58,640 --> 01:41:01,677 banned. Um and this was in fact the way the history goes is this was actually 1878 01:41:01,760 --> 01:41:04,157 the beginning of organized crime in the US. This was the big economic 1879 01:41:04,240 --> 01:41:08,957 opportunity that opened that up. Um and so they went in together. Um, and I know 1880 01:41:09,040 --> 01:41:11,997 they didn't go in together like the Baptists did not even necessarily know 1881 01:41:12,080 --> 01:41:14,317 about the bootleggers because they were on their moral crusade. 1882 01:41:14,400 --> 01:41:15,597 >> The bootleggers certainly knew about the 1883 01:41:15,680 --> 01:41:18,237 Baptists and they were like, "Wow, this is these people are like the great front 1884 01:41:18,320 --> 01:41:21,677 people for like, you know, >> good >> shenanigans in the background." 1885 01:41:21,760 --> 01:41:24,157 >> Yeah. >> And they got the Folstead Act passed, 1886 01:41:24,240 --> 01:41:27,837 right? And they did in fact ban alcohol in the US. And you'll notice what 1887 01:41:27,920 --> 01:41:30,077 happened, which is people kept drinking. 1888 01:41:30,160 --> 01:41:33,837 >> It didn't work. [laughter] People kept drinking. Um, that bootleggers made a 1889 01:41:33,920 --> 01:41:37,117 tremendous amount of money. Um, and then over time it became clear that it made 1890 01:41:37,200 --> 01:41:40,157 no sense to make it illegal and it was causing more problems. And so then it 1891 01:41:40,240 --> 01:41:43,197 was revoked and here we sit with legal alcohol 100 years later with all the 1892 01:41:43,280 --> 01:41:46,477 same problems. >> Mh. >> Um, and you know the whole thing was 1893 01:41:46,560 --> 01:41:50,237 this like giant misadventure. U the Baptists got taken advantage of by the 1894 01:41:50,320 --> 01:41:53,037 bootleggers and the bootleggers got what they wanted and and that was it. 1895 01:41:53,120 --> 01:41:57,757 >> The same two categories of folks are now uh sort of suggesting that uh the 1896 01:41:57,840 --> 01:41:59,997 development of artificial intelligence should be regulated 1897 01:42:00,080 --> 01:42:02,477 >> 100%. Yeah, it's the same pattern and the the economists would tell you it's 1898 01:42:02,560 --> 01:42:04,877 the same pattern every time. like this is what happened at nuclear power. This 1899 01:42:04,960 --> 01:42:07,677 is what happened which is another interesting one but like yeah this is 1900 01:42:07,760 --> 01:42:11,357 this happens dozens and dozens of times um throughout the last hundred years and 1901 01:42:11,440 --> 01:42:12,957 and and this is what's happening now. 1902 01:42:13,040 --> 01:42:18,157 >> And you write that it isn't sufficient to simply identify the actors and impugn 1903 01:42:18,240 --> 01:42:21,357 their motives. We should consider the arguments of both the Baptists and the 1904 01:42:21,440 --> 01:42:23,117 bootleggers on their merits. 1905 01:42:23,200 --> 01:42:29,320 >> So let's do just that. >> Risk number one 1906 01:42:29,520 --> 01:42:35,027 uh will AI kill us all? >> Yes. So 1907 01:42:35,110 --> 01:42:37,037 [clears throat] uh what do you what do you think about 1908 01:42:37,120 --> 01:42:39,117 this one? This this what do you think is 1909 01:42:39,200 --> 01:42:42,397 the core argument here 1910 01:42:42,480 --> 01:42:47,917 that uh the development of AGI perhaps better said uh will destroy human 1911 01:42:48,000 --> 01:42:49,997 civilization? >> Well, first of all, you just did a 1912 01:42:50,080 --> 01:42:54,017 slight of hand because we went from talking about AI to AGI. 1913 01:42:54,100 --> 01:42:55,997 [laughter] >> Is there a fundamental difference there? 1914 01:42:56,080 --> 01:42:59,517 >> I don't know. What's AGI? >> I What's AI? What's in 1915 01:42:59,600 --> 01:43:02,877 >> I know what AI is. AI is machine learning. What's what's AGI? 1916 01:43:02,960 --> 01:43:06,077 >> I think we don't know what the bottom of the well of machine learning is or what 1917 01:43:06,160 --> 01:43:10,317 the ceiling is because just uh to call something machine learning or just to 1918 01:43:10,400 --> 01:43:14,477 call something statistics or just to call it math or computation doesn't mean 1919 01:43:14,560 --> 01:43:16,477 you know uh nuclear weapons or just 1920 01:43:16,560 --> 01:43:21,997 physics. So it's it it's to me it's very interesting and surprising how far 1921 01:43:22,080 --> 01:43:23,997 machine learning has taken. >> No, but we knew that nuclear physics 1922 01:43:24,080 --> 01:43:27,037 would lead to weapons. That's why the scientists of that era were always in 1923 01:43:27,120 --> 01:43:29,597 this huge dispute about building the weapons. This is different. Asia is 1924 01:43:29,680 --> 01:43:31,597 different. >> Where does machine learning lead? Do we know? 1925 01:43:31,680 --> 01:43:34,317 >> We don't know. But this my point is different. We we actually don't know. 1926 01:43:34,400 --> 01:43:37,357 But and and this is where you the slight of hand kicks in, right? This is where 1927 01:43:37,440 --> 01:43:41,437 it goes from being a scientific topic to being a religious topic. Um and that's 1928 01:43:41,520 --> 01:43:43,917 that's why I specifically called out that because that's what happens. They 1929 01:43:44,000 --> 01:43:46,077 do the vocabulary shift and all of a sudden you're talking about something 1930 01:43:46,160 --> 01:43:47,597 totally that's not actually real. 1931 01:43:47,680 --> 01:43:50,237 >> Well, then maybe you can also uh as part 1932 01:43:50,320 --> 01:43:54,077 of that define the western tradition of millennism. 1933 01:43:54,160 --> 01:43:56,477 >> Yes. End of the world. Apocalypse. 1934 01:43:56,560 --> 01:44:01,037 Apocalypse. Apocalypse cults. Um >> apocalypse cults. Well, so we live in we 1935 01:44:01,120 --> 01:44:03,917 of course live in a Judeo-Christian but primarily Christian kind of saturated 1936 01:44:04,000 --> 01:44:06,397 you know kind of Christian post-Christian secularized Christian you 1937 01:44:06,480 --> 01:44:10,477 know kind of world in the west. Um and of course core to Christianity is the 1938 01:44:10,560 --> 01:44:14,237 idea of the second coming and and you know revelations and you know the Jesus 1939 01:44:14,320 --> 01:44:17,437 returning and thou the thousand-year you know utopia on earth and then the you 1940 01:44:17,520 --> 01:44:20,557 know the rapture and like all all that stuff you know we don't we you know we 1941 01:44:20,640 --> 01:44:23,357 collectively you know as a society we don't necessarily take all that fully 1942 01:44:23,440 --> 01:44:27,117 seriously now. So what we do is we create our secularized versions of that. 1943 01:44:27,200 --> 01:44:30,237 We keep we keep looking for utopia. we keep looking for, you know, basically 1944 01:44:30,320 --> 01:44:33,517 the end of the world. And and so what what you see over over decades is a 1945 01:44:33,600 --> 01:44:37,197 basically a pattern of these sort of of these of these of is this this is what 1946 01:44:37,280 --> 01:44:39,997 cults are. This is how cults form is they form around some theory of the end 1947 01:44:40,080 --> 01:44:41,597 of the world. And so the People's Temple 1948 01:44:41,680 --> 01:44:47,117 cult, the Manson cult, the Heavensgate cult, the David Caresh cult. You know 1949 01:44:47,200 --> 01:44:49,437 what they're all organized around is like there's going to be this thing 1950 01:44:49,520 --> 01:44:52,157 that's going to happen that's going to basically bring civilization crashing 1951 01:44:52,240 --> 01:44:55,117 down. And then we have this special elite group of people who are going to 1952 01:44:55,200 --> 01:44:58,157 see it coming and prepare for it. And then they're the people who are either 1953 01:44:58,240 --> 01:45:00,957 going to stop it or are failing stopping it. They're going to be the people who 1954 01:45:01,040 --> 01:45:03,757 survive to the other side and ultimately get credit for having been right. 1955 01:45:03,840 --> 01:45:05,437 >> Why is that so compelling, do you think? 1956 01:45:05,520 --> 01:45:07,997 Like um because it satisfies this very 1957 01:45:08,080 --> 01:45:13,757 deep need we have for transcendence and meaning that got stripped away when we 1958 01:45:13,840 --> 01:45:16,637 became secular. >> Yeah. But why why does the transcendence 1959 01:45:16,720 --> 01:45:18,477 involve the destruction of human 1960 01:45:18,560 --> 01:45:23,997 civilization? Cuz like how like how plausible Well, it's it's like a very 1961 01:45:24,080 --> 01:45:26,557 deep psychological thing because it's like how plausible how plausible is it 1962 01:45:26,640 --> 01:45:29,357 that we live in a world where everything's just kind of all right, 1963 01:45:29,440 --> 01:45:32,157 >> right? How exciting >> how exciting is that? Right. 1964 01:45:32,240 --> 01:45:36,557 >> But that's more than that. >> But that's the deep question I'm asking. 1965 01:45:36,640 --> 01:45:40,557 >> Why is it not exciting to live in a world where everything's just all right? 1966 01:45:40,640 --> 01:45:44,477 Cuz >> I think u you know most of the animal 1967 01:45:44,560 --> 01:45:46,397 kingdom would be so happy with just all 1968 01:45:46,480 --> 01:45:49,117 right cuz that means survival. Why are 1969 01:45:49,200 --> 01:45:51,837 we uh maybe that's what it is. Why are 1970 01:45:51,920 --> 01:45:55,037 we conjuring up things to worry about? 1971 01:45:55,120 --> 01:45:59,437 >> So CS Lewis called it the God-shaped hole. So there's a God-shaped hole in 1972 01:45:59,520 --> 01:46:03,197 the human experience, consciousness, soul, whatever you want to call it, 1973 01:46:03,280 --> 01:46:06,957 where there's got to be something that's bigger than all this. 1974 01:46:07,040 --> 01:46:08,637 >> There's got to be something transcendent. There's got to be 1975 01:46:08,720 --> 01:46:12,477 something that is bigger, right? Bigger, a bigger purpose, a bigger meaning. And 1976 01:46:12,560 --> 01:46:15,917 so we have run the experiment of, you know, we're just going to use science 1977 01:46:16,000 --> 01:46:18,797 and rationality and kind of, you know, everything's just going to kind of be as 1978 01:46:18,880 --> 01:46:21,357 it appears. And large number of people 1979 01:46:21,440 --> 01:46:25,997 have found that very deeply wanting and have constructed narratives and and by 1980 01:46:26,080 --> 01:46:28,717 this is the story of the 20th century, right? Communism, right, was one of 1981 01:46:28,800 --> 01:46:33,357 those. Communism was a was a form of this. Nazism was a form of this. Um, you 1982 01:46:33,440 --> 01:46:36,797 know, some people um you know, you can see movements like this playing out all 1983 01:46:36,880 --> 01:46:40,237 over the world right now. >> So you construct a kind of devil, a kind 1984 01:46:40,320 --> 01:46:43,437 of source of evil. and we're going to transcend beyond it. 1985 01:46:43,520 --> 01:46:47,757 >> Yeah. And the millinarian, the millinarians kind of when you see a 1986 01:46:47,840 --> 01:46:50,797 millinarian cult, they put a really specific point on it, which is end of 1987 01:46:50,880 --> 01:46:54,717 the world, right? There there is some change coming and that change that's 1988 01:46:54,800 --> 01:46:58,317 coming is so profound and so important that it's either going to lead to utopia 1989 01:46:58,400 --> 01:47:03,117 or hell on earth, >> right? Um and it is going to and then 1990 01:47:03,200 --> 01:47:06,157 you know it's like what if you actually knew that that was going to happen, 1991 01:47:06,240 --> 01:47:09,437 right? What would you what what would you do, right? How would you prepare 1992 01:47:09,520 --> 01:47:12,157 yourself for it? How would you come together with a group of like-minded 1993 01:47:12,240 --> 01:47:15,517 people, right? How would you what would you do? Would you plan like hashes of 1994 01:47:15,600 --> 01:47:18,637 weapons in the woods? Would you like, you know, I don't know, create under 1995 01:47:18,720 --> 01:47:21,277 underground buckers? Would you, you know, spend your life trying to figure 1996 01:47:21,360 --> 01:47:22,877 out a way to avoid having it happen? 1997 01:47:22,960 --> 01:47:25,837 >> Yeah, that's a really compelling, exciting 1998 01:47:25,920 --> 01:47:30,797 idea to uh to have a club over to have to to have a to have a little bit of 1999 01:47:30,880 --> 01:47:33,917 tribe like a get together on a Saturday night and drink some beers and talk 2000 01:47:34,000 --> 01:47:36,797 about the the end of the world and how you're the you [clears throat] are the 2001 01:47:36,880 --> 01:47:38,397 only ones who have figured it out. 2002 01:47:38,480 --> 01:47:41,197 >> Yeah. And then and then once you lock in on that, like how can you do anything 2003 01:47:41,280 --> 01:47:43,437 else with your life? Like this is obviously the thing that you have to do. 2004 01:47:43,520 --> 01:47:45,757 And then and then there's a psychological effect that you alluded 2005 01:47:45,840 --> 01:47:48,317 to. There's a psychological effect. If you take a set of true believers and you 2006 01:47:48,400 --> 01:47:50,797 leave them to themselves, they get more radical, right? Because they they 2007 01:47:50,880 --> 01:47:53,917 self-radicalize each other. >> That said, >> yes, 2008 01:47:54,000 --> 01:47:56,477 >> it doesn't mean they're not sometimes right. 2009 01:47:56,560 --> 01:47:57,917 >> Yeah. The end of the world might be Yes. 2010 01:47:58,000 --> 01:47:59,437 Correct. Like they might be right. 2011 01:47:59,520 --> 01:48:01,867 >> Yeah. >> But [snorts] like we >> I have some pamphlets for you. 2012 01:48:01,950 --> 01:48:05,197 [laughter] >> Exactly. It's it I mean there's I mean 2013 01:48:05,280 --> 01:48:08,157 we'll talk about nuclear weapons because you have a really interesting little 2014 01:48:08,240 --> 01:48:12,077 moment that I learned about in in your essay but you know sometimes it could be 2015 01:48:12,160 --> 01:48:15,117 right. >> Yeah. >> Because we're still you we're developing 2016 01:48:15,200 --> 01:48:19,437 more and more powerful technologies uh in this case and we don't know what the 2017 01:48:19,520 --> 01:48:22,877 impact it will have on human civilization. Well we can highlight all 2018 01:48:22,960 --> 01:48:27,117 the different predictions about how it will be positive but the risks are there 2019 01:48:27,200 --> 01:48:30,717 and you discuss some of them. Well, the steel man, the steel man is the steel 2020 01:48:30,800 --> 01:48:33,677 man actually the steel man and his reputation are the same which is you 2021 01:48:33,760 --> 01:48:37,197 can't predict what's going to happen right you right you can't rule out that 2022 01:48:37,280 --> 01:48:40,877 this will not end everything right but the response to that is you have just 2023 01:48:40,960 --> 01:48:44,077 made a completely non-scientific claim >> you've made a religious claim not a 2024 01:48:44,160 --> 01:48:45,917 scientific claim there >> how does it get disproven 2025 01:48:46,000 --> 01:48:48,477 >> there is and there's no by definition with these kinds of claims there's no 2026 01:48:48,560 --> 01:48:51,997 way to disprove them >> right um and so there there's no you go 2027 01:48:52,080 --> 01:48:55,917 right on the list there's no hypothesis there's no testability of the hypothesis 2028 01:48:56,000 --> 01:48:58,957 there's no um way to falsify the hypothesis 2029 01:48:59,040 --> 01:49:01,117 there's no way to measure progress along 2030 01:49:01,200 --> 01:49:06,237 the arc. Like it's just all completely missing and so it's not scientific and 2031 01:49:06,320 --> 01:49:09,437 >> well I don't I don't think it's completely missing. It's it's somewhat 2032 01:49:09,520 --> 01:49:12,877 missing. So for example the the the the people that say AI is going to kill all 2033 01:49:12,960 --> 01:49:15,917 of us. I mean they usually have ideas 2034 01:49:16,000 --> 01:49:20,717 about how to do that whether it's the paperclip maximizer or um you know it 2035 01:49:20,800 --> 01:49:25,437 escapes. There's mechanism by which you can imagine it killing all humans 2036 01:49:25,520 --> 01:49:28,237 >> models >> and 2037 01:49:28,320 --> 01:49:30,877 to you can disprove it by saying there 2038 01:49:30,960 --> 01:49:35,357 is um there is a limit to uh the speed 2039 01:49:35,440 --> 01:49:38,477 at which intelligence increases 2040 01:49:38,560 --> 01:49:42,637 maybe show that uh like sort of 2041 01:49:42,720 --> 01:49:45,997 rigorously really describe model like 2042 01:49:46,080 --> 01:49:51,037 how it could happen and say no there here's a physics limitation there's a 2043 01:49:51,120 --> 01:49:54,637 physical limitation to how these systems would actually do damage to human 2044 01:49:54,720 --> 01:49:56,717 civilization. And it is possible they 2045 01:49:56,800 --> 01:50:02,237 will kill 10 to 20% of the population, but it seems impossible for them to kill 2046 01:50:02,320 --> 01:50:04,557 uh 99%. >> There's practical counter arguments, 2047 01:50:04,640 --> 01:50:07,277 right? So you mentioned basically what I described as the thermodynamic counter 2048 01:50:07,360 --> 01:50:10,557 argument, which sitting here today, it's like where would the evil AGI get the 2049 01:50:10,640 --> 01:50:12,877 GPUs? >> Yeah. >> Cuz like they don't exist. 2050 01:50:12,960 --> 01:50:15,597 >> So you're going to have a very frustrated baby evil AGI who's going to 2051 01:50:15,680 --> 01:50:17,837 be like trying to buy Nvidia stock or something to 2052 01:50:17,920 --> 01:50:21,277 >> get them to finally make some chips. Um right. So the the serious form of that 2053 01:50:21,360 --> 01:50:23,757 is the thermodynamic argument which is like okay where's the energy going to 2054 01:50:23,840 --> 01:50:26,557 come from where's the processor going to be running where is the data center 2055 01:50:26,640 --> 01:50:28,877 going to be happening how is this going to be happening in secret such that you 2056 01:50:28,960 --> 01:50:32,477 know it's not you know so so that's a practical counterargument to the runaway 2057 01:50:32,560 --> 01:50:35,917 AGI thing I have a but I have a and we can argue that and discuss that I have I 2058 01:50:36,000 --> 01:50:39,437 have a deeper objection to it which is it's this is all forecasting it's all 2059 01:50:39,520 --> 01:50:41,357 modeling it's all it's all future 2060 01:50:41,440 --> 01:50:46,477 prediction it's all future hypothesizing >> it's not science 2061 01:50:46,560 --> 01:50:49,117 >> sure >> it is not it is it is is the opposite of 2062 01:50:49,200 --> 01:50:51,997 science So the I'll pull up Carl Sean extraordinary claims require 2063 01:50:52,080 --> 01:50:56,237 extraordinary proof right these are extraordinary claims the policies that 2064 01:50:56,320 --> 01:51:00,637 are being called for right to prevent this are of extraordinary magnitude and 2065 01:51:00,720 --> 01:51:03,437 I think we're going to cause extraordinary damage and this is all 2066 01:51:03,520 --> 01:51:06,317 being done on the basis of something that is literally not scientific it's 2067 01:51:06,400 --> 01:51:08,957 not a testable hypothesis >> so the moment you say AI is going to 2068 01:51:09,040 --> 01:51:12,717 kill all of us therefore we should ban it or that we should uh regulate all 2069 01:51:12,800 --> 01:51:14,557 that kind of stuff that's when it starts getting serious 2070 01:51:14,640 --> 01:51:17,117 >> or start you know military air strikes and data centers 2071 01:51:17,200 --> 01:51:21,437 >> oh boy Right. And like, [laughter] 2072 01:51:21,520 --> 01:51:24,317 >> yeah, that's when it get starts it starts getting real. 2073 01:51:24,400 --> 01:51:25,437 >> So, here's the problem with millionarian 2074 01:51:25,520 --> 01:51:28,957 cults. They have a hard time staying away from violence. 2075 01:51:29,040 --> 01:51:30,817 >> Yeah. But violence is so fun, man. 2076 01:51:30,900 --> 01:51:35,277 [laughter] >> Well, if you're on the right end of it, they 2077 01:51:35,360 --> 01:51:37,357 have a hard time avoiding violence. The reason they have a hard time avoiding 2078 01:51:37,440 --> 01:51:40,637 violence is if you actually believe the claim, 2079 01:51:40,720 --> 01:51:44,317 >> right? Then what would you do to stop the end of the world? Well, you would do 2080 01:51:44,400 --> 01:51:47,997 anything, right? And so and this is where you get and again if you just look 2081 01:51:48,080 --> 01:51:50,717 at the history of of millinarian cults this is where you get the people's 2082 01:51:50,800 --> 01:51:52,957 temple and everybody killing themselves in the jungle and this is where you get 2083 01:51:53,040 --> 01:51:57,597 Charles Manson and you know sending in to kill kill the pigs like this is the 2084 01:51:57,680 --> 01:52:00,797 problem with these they they have a very hard time to run the line at actual 2085 01:52:00,880 --> 01:52:04,477 violence and I think I think in this case there's they're I mean they're 2086 01:52:04,560 --> 01:52:08,157 already calling for it like today and you know where this goes from here as 2087 01:52:08,240 --> 01:52:11,757 they get more worked up like I I think is like really concerning. Okay, but 2088 01:52:11,840 --> 01:52:15,597 that's kind of the extremes. You know, the extremes of anything are always 2089 01:52:15,680 --> 01:52:18,877 concerning. It it's also possible to kind of believe 2090 01:52:18,960 --> 01:52:20,957 that AI has a very high likelihood of 2091 01:52:21,040 --> 01:52:24,637 killing all of us. Uh but there's and 2092 01:52:24,720 --> 01:52:27,837 therefore we should uh maybe consider 2093 01:52:27,920 --> 01:52:32,317 uh slowing development or regulating. So not violence or any of these kinds of 2094 01:52:32,400 --> 01:52:36,317 things, but saying like all right, let's let's take a pause here. You know, you 2095 01:52:36,400 --> 01:52:39,757 biological weapons, nuclear weapons, like whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. 2096 01:52:39,840 --> 01:52:42,797 This is like serious stuff. We should be 2097 01:52:42,880 --> 01:52:47,917 careful. So it is possible to kind of have a more rational response, right? If 2098 01:52:48,000 --> 01:52:50,877 you believe this risk is real, >> believe. 2099 01:52:50,960 --> 01:52:55,677 >> Yes. So what is it possible to be have a scientific approach to the the the 2100 01:52:55,760 --> 01:52:58,637 prediction of the future? >> I mean, we just went through this with CO. Yeah. 2101 01:52:58,720 --> 01:53:01,037 >> What do we know about modeling? 2102 01:53:01,120 --> 01:53:04,077 >> Well, I mean, >> what do we learn about modeling with CO? 2103 01:53:04,160 --> 01:53:05,677 >> Uh there's a lot of lessons. 2104 01:53:05,760 --> 01:53:09,037 >> They didn't work at all. >> They worked poorly. The models were 2105 01:53:09,120 --> 01:53:10,797 terrible. The models were useless. 2106 01:53:10,880 --> 01:53:15,757 >> I don't know if the models were useless or the people interpreting the models 2107 01:53:15,840 --> 01:53:19,677 and then the centralized institutions that were creating policy rapidly based 2108 01:53:19,760 --> 01:53:24,317 on the models and leveraging the models in order to uh support their narratives 2109 01:53:24,400 --> 01:53:28,237 versus actually interpreting the air bars and the models and all that kind of stuff. 2110 01:53:28,320 --> 01:53:31,277 >> What you had with CO my my view what you had with CO is you had these experts 2111 01:53:31,360 --> 01:53:34,477 showing up and they claimed to be scientists and they had no testable 2112 01:53:34,560 --> 01:53:37,437 hypotheses whatsoever. They had a bunch of models. um they had a bunch of 2113 01:53:37,520 --> 01:53:39,677 forecasts and they had a bunch of theories and they laid these out in 2114 01:53:39,760 --> 01:53:43,277 front of policy makers and policy makers freaked out and panicked, right? And 2115 01:53:43,360 --> 01:53:46,157 implemented a whole bunch of like really like terrible decisions that were still 2116 01:53:46,240 --> 01:53:50,957 living with the consequences of um and there was never any empirical foundation 2117 01:53:51,040 --> 01:53:53,197 to any of the models. None of them ever came true. 2118 01:53:53,280 --> 01:53:56,317 >> Yeah. To push to push back, there were certainly Baptists and bootleggers in 2119 01:53:56,400 --> 01:54:00,797 this in the context of this pandemic, but there's still a usefulness to models. No, 2120 01:54:00,880 --> 01:54:03,677 >> I so not if they're I mean not if they're reliably wrong, right? Then 2121 01:54:03,760 --> 01:54:06,237 they're actually like anti-useful, right? They're actually damaging. But 2122 01:54:06,320 --> 01:54:07,597 what what do you do with a pandemic? 2123 01:54:07,680 --> 01:54:11,197 What do you do with a with a with any kind of threat? Don't you want to kind 2124 01:54:11,280 --> 01:54:14,477 of have um several models to play with 2125 01:54:14,560 --> 01:54:18,237 as part of the discussion of like what the hell do we do here? 2126 01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:22,237 >> I mean, do they work? Like is there an expectation that they actually like work 2127 01:54:22,320 --> 01:54:24,237 that they have actual predictive value? 2128 01:54:24,320 --> 01:54:27,677 I mean, as far as I can tell with co we just s the policy makers just sigh up 2129 01:54:27,760 --> 01:54:30,557 themselves into believing that there was sub I mean look the scientist the 2130 01:54:30,640 --> 01:54:33,517 scientists were at fault. This the quote unquote scientists showed up. 2131 01:54:33,600 --> 01:54:35,197 >> Mhm. >> So I had some insight into this. So 2132 01:54:35,280 --> 01:54:38,397 there there was a remember the Imperial College models out of out of London were 2133 01:54:38,480 --> 01:54:40,557 the ones that were like these are the gold standard models. 2134 01:54:40,640 --> 01:54:42,317 >> Yeah. >> So a friend of mine runs a big software 2135 01:54:42,400 --> 01:54:45,197 company and he was like wow this is like co's really scary and he's like you know 2136 01:54:45,280 --> 01:54:47,917 he contacted this research and he's like you know do you need some help? You've 2137 01:54:48,000 --> 01:54:50,637 been just building this model on your own for 20 years. Do you need some would 2138 01:54:50,720 --> 01:54:53,277 you like us our coders to basically restructure it so it can be fully 2139 01:54:53,360 --> 01:54:57,037 adapted for co and the guy said yes and sent over the code. And my friend said 2140 01:54:57,120 --> 01:55:00,317 it was like the worst spaghetti code he's ever seen. That doesn't mean it's 2141 01:55:00,400 --> 01:55:04,237 not possible to construct a good model of pandemic with a correct error bars 2142 01:55:04,320 --> 01:55:08,637 with a high number of parameters that are continuously many times a day 2143 01:55:08,720 --> 01:55:10,477 updated as we get more data about a 2144 01:55:10,560 --> 01:55:15,757 pandemic. I would like to believe when a pandemic hits the world, the best 2145 01:55:15,840 --> 01:55:18,797 computer scientists in the world, the best software engineers respond 2146 01:55:18,880 --> 01:55:22,317 aggressively and as input take the data 2147 01:55:22,400 --> 01:55:26,797 that we know about the virus and as an output say here's here's what's 2148 01:55:26,880 --> 01:55:31,117 happening in terms of how quickly it's spreading what that lead in terms of 2149 01:55:31,200 --> 01:55:34,637 hospitalization and deaths and all that kind of stuff. Here's how likely how 2150 01:55:34,720 --> 01:55:39,037 contagious it likely is. here's how deadly it likely is based on different 2151 01:55:39,120 --> 01:55:42,237 conditions, based on different ages and demographics and all that kind of stuff. 2152 01:55:42,320 --> 01:55:44,477 So, here's the best kinds of policy. It 2153 01:55:44,560 --> 01:55:48,397 feels like you can have models machine 2154 01:55:48,480 --> 01:55:52,397 learning that like kind of they don't 2155 01:55:52,480 --> 01:55:53,997 perfectly predict the future, but they 2156 01:55:54,080 --> 01:55:56,557 they they help you do something because 2157 01:55:56,640 --> 01:55:59,757 there's pandemics that are like 2158 01:55:59,840 --> 01:56:02,957 uh meh. they don't really do much harm 2159 01:56:03,040 --> 01:56:04,877 and there's pandemics you can imagine 2160 01:56:04,960 --> 01:56:10,317 them that could do a huge amount of harm like they can kill a lot of people. So 2161 01:56:10,400 --> 01:56:14,877 you should probably have some kind of datadriven models that keep updating 2162 01:56:14,960 --> 01:56:18,797 that allow you to make decisions that based like where how bad is this thing? 2163 01:56:18,880 --> 01:56:23,757 Uh now you can criticize how horrible all that went with the 2164 01:56:23,840 --> 01:56:27,197 response to this pandemic but I just feel like there might be some value to models. 2165 01:56:27,280 --> 01:56:30,957 >> So to be useful at some point it has to be predictive, right? So, and so and and 2166 01:56:31,040 --> 01:56:34,877 the so the easy thing for me to do is to say obviously you're right. Obviously I 2167 01:56:34,960 --> 01:56:37,277 want to see that just as much as you do because anything that makes it easier to 2168 01:56:37,360 --> 01:56:40,237 navigate through society through a wrenching you know risk like that is 2169 01:56:40,320 --> 01:56:44,077 that sounds great. Um you know the the harder objection to it is just simply 2170 01:56:44,160 --> 01:56:48,237 you are trying to model a complex dynamic system with 8 billion moving 2171 01:56:48,320 --> 01:56:52,637 parts like not possible. >> Can't be done. Complex systems can't be done. 2172 01:56:52,720 --> 01:56:56,397 >> Uh machine learning says hold my beer but it's possible. No 2173 01:56:56,480 --> 01:56:59,357 >> I don't know. I I would like to believe that it is. Yeah. Put it this way. I 2174 01:56:59,440 --> 01:57:01,437 think where you and I would agree is I think we would like we would we would 2175 01:57:01,520 --> 01:57:04,797 like that to be the case. >> We are strongly in favor of it. 2176 01:57:04,880 --> 01:57:07,597 >> I think we would also agree that no such thing with respect to COVID or 2177 01:57:07,680 --> 01:57:11,037 pandemics. No such thing at least neither you nor I think are aware I'm 2178 01:57:11,120 --> 01:57:12,477 not aware of anything like that today. 2179 01:57:12,560 --> 01:57:14,317 My main worry with the response to the 2180 01:57:14,400 --> 01:57:17,917 pandemic is that uh uh same as with 2181 01:57:18,000 --> 01:57:21,117 aliens is that even if such a thing 2182 01:57:21,200 --> 01:57:25,597 existed and it's possible it existed the 2183 01:57:25,680 --> 01:57:30,157 the the the policy makers were not paying attention like u there was no 2184 01:57:30,240 --> 01:57:32,797 mechanism that allowed those kinds of models to percolate up. 2185 01:57:32,880 --> 01:57:35,757 >> Oh I think we had the opposite problem during co I think the policy makers I 2186 01:57:35,840 --> 01:57:39,117 think the these the these these people with basically fake science had too much 2187 01:57:39,200 --> 01:57:43,277 access to the policy makers. Well, right. And but the policy makers also 2188 01:57:43,360 --> 01:57:47,357 wanted they had a narrative in mind and they also wanted to use whatever model 2189 01:57:47,440 --> 01:57:50,557 that fit that narrative to to help them out. So like it felt like there was a 2190 01:57:50,640 --> 01:57:52,317 lot of politics and not enough science. 2191 01:57:52,400 --> 01:57:54,637 >> Although a big part of what was happening a big a reason we got 2192 01:57:54,720 --> 01:57:57,037 lockdowns for as long as we did was because these scientists came in with 2193 01:57:57,120 --> 01:57:59,917 these like doomsday scenarios that were like just like completely off the hook. 2194 01:58:00,000 --> 01:58:02,717 >> Scientists in quotes >> quote unquote scientist. 2195 01:58:02,800 --> 01:58:06,717 >> That's not okay. >> Let's give love science. That is the way out. 2196 01:58:06,800 --> 01:58:09,997 >> Science is a process of testing hypothesis. Yeah. Modeling does not 2197 01:58:10,080 --> 01:58:13,837 involve testable hypothesis, right? Like I don't even know that I actually don't 2198 01:58:13,920 --> 01:58:17,197 I don't I don't even know that modeling actually qualifies as science. Maybe 2199 01:58:17,280 --> 01:58:19,917 that's a side conversation we could have sometime over a beer. 2200 01:58:20,000 --> 01:58:23,517 >> That's really interesting. But what do we do about the future? I mean, what what 2201 01:58:23,600 --> 01:58:26,957 >> So number one is when we start with number one, humility goes back to this 2202 01:58:27,040 --> 01:58:28,717 thing of how do we determine the truth. 2203 01:58:28,800 --> 01:58:31,517 Number two is we don't believe, you know, it's the old I've got a hammer, 2204 01:58:31,600 --> 01:58:35,677 everything looks like a nail, right? Um uh I've got oh this one of the reasons I 2205 01:58:35,760 --> 01:58:39,437 gave you I gave Lex a book um which the topic of the book is what happens when 2206 01:58:39,520 --> 01:58:42,797 scientists basically stray off the path >> of technical knowledge and start to 2207 01:58:42,880 --> 01:58:46,237 weigh in on politics and societal issues. Um >> in this case philosophers 2208 01:58:46,320 --> 01:58:48,877 >> well in this case philosophers but he he actually talks in this book about like 2209 01:58:48,960 --> 01:58:51,277 Einstein he talks actually about the nuclear age and Einstein he talks about 2210 01:58:51,360 --> 01:58:55,517 the physicists uh actually doing doing very similar things at the time. Uh the 2211 01:58:55,600 --> 01:58:57,677 book is When Reason Goes on Holiday: 2212 01:58:57,760 --> 01:59:02,797 Philosophers in Politics by uh Nevin >> and it's just a story it's a story 2213 01:59:02,880 --> 01:59:05,357 there's there are other books on this topic but this is a new one that's 2214 01:59:05,440 --> 01:59:08,237 really good. It's just a story of what happens when experts in a certain domain 2215 01:59:08,320 --> 01:59:12,397 decide to weigh in and become basically social engineers and um and political um 2216 01:59:12,480 --> 01:59:15,117 you know basically political adviserss and it's just a story of just unending 2217 01:59:15,200 --> 01:59:19,357 catastrophe right and I think that's what happened with co again 2218 01:59:19,440 --> 01:59:22,477 >> yeah I found this book a highly entertaining and eye-opening read filled 2219 01:59:22,560 --> 01:59:26,237 with amazing anecdotes of irrationality and craziness by famous recent 2220 01:59:26,320 --> 01:59:28,717 philosophers this >> after you read this book you will not 2221 01:59:28,800 --> 01:59:33,117 look at Einstein the same >> oh boy >> yeah [laughter] >> don't destroy my heroes 2222 01:59:33,200 --> 01:59:36,797 >> he will not be a hero of yours anymore Um, I'm sorry. [laughter] You probably 2223 01:59:36,880 --> 01:59:38,157 shouldn't you shouldn't read the book. 2224 01:59:38,240 --> 01:59:42,077 >> All right. >> But here's the thing. The AI the AI risk 2225 01:59:42,160 --> 01:59:44,637 people, they don't even have the CO model. 2226 01:59:44,720 --> 01:59:46,157 >> At least not that I'm aware of. No. 2227 01:59:46,240 --> 01:59:48,317 >> Like there's not even the equivalent of the CO model. They don't even have the 2228 01:59:48,400 --> 01:59:52,317 spaghetti code. >> They've got a theory and a warning and a 2229 01:59:52,400 --> 01:59:55,997 this and a that. And like if you ask like okay well here's here's I mean the 2230 01:59:56,080 --> 01:59:58,797 ultimate example is okay how do we know right? How do we know that an AI is 2231 01:59:58,880 --> 02:00:01,517 running away? Like how do we know that the fume takeoff thing is actually 2232 02:00:01,600 --> 02:00:04,477 happening? And the only answer that any of these guys have given that I've ever 2233 02:00:04,560 --> 02:00:08,397 seen is, oh, it's when the loss rate, the loss function in in the training 2234 02:00:08,480 --> 02:00:12,077 drops, right? That's when you need to like shut down the data center, right? 2235 02:00:12,160 --> 02:00:14,077 And it's like, well, that's also what happens when you're successfully 2236 02:00:14,160 --> 02:00:18,557 training a model. Like like what what 2237 02:00:18,640 --> 02:00:22,477 even is this is not science. [laughter] This is not it's not anything. It's not 2238 02:00:22,560 --> 02:00:25,757 a model. It's not anything. There's nothing to arguing with it is like, you 2239 02:00:25,840 --> 02:00:28,717 know, punching jello. Like there there's what do you even respond to? 2240 02:00:28,800 --> 02:00:30,477 >> So just push back on that. I don't think 2241 02:00:30,560 --> 02:00:33,837 they have good metrics of yeah when the 2242 02:00:33,920 --> 02:00:38,077 flume is happening but I think it's possible to have that like I just just 2243 02:00:38,160 --> 02:00:41,837 as you speak now I mean it's possible to imagine there could be measures 2244 02:00:41,920 --> 02:00:45,197 >> it's been 20 years >> no for sure but it's been only weeks 2245 02:00:45,280 --> 02:00:47,677 since we had a big enough breakthrough 2246 02:00:47,760 --> 02:00:49,677 in language models we can start to 2247 02:00:49,760 --> 02:00:52,237 actually have this the thing is the AI 2248 02:00:52,320 --> 02:00:56,877 doomer stuff didn't have any actual systems to really work with now there's 2249 02:00:56,960 --> 02:01:00,477 real systems you can start to analyze like how does this stuff go wrong and I 2250 02:01:00,560 --> 02:01:04,077 think you kind agree that there is a lot of risks that we can analyze. The 2251 02:01:04,160 --> 02:01:06,157 benefits outweigh the risks in many cases. 2252 02:01:06,240 --> 02:01:08,477 >> Well, the risks are not existential. 2253 02:01:08,560 --> 02:01:10,557 >> Yes. Well, >> not in the not not in the f not in the 2254 02:01:10,640 --> 02:01:13,117 fume paper clip. Not this. Let me Okay, there's another slide of hand that you 2255 02:01:13,200 --> 02:01:15,197 just alluded to. There's another slide of hand that happens which is very 2256 02:01:15,280 --> 02:01:17,437 >> I think I'm very good at the slight of hand thing 2257 02:01:17,520 --> 02:01:19,117 >> which is [laughter] very non-scientific. 2258 02:01:19,200 --> 02:01:22,237 So the book super intelligence, right, which is like the Nick Boster's book 2259 02:01:22,320 --> 02:01:24,637 which is like the origin of a lot of this stuff which was written, you know, 2260 02:01:24,720 --> 02:01:27,997 whatever 10 years ago or something. So he does this really fascinating thing in 2261 02:01:28,080 --> 02:01:32,797 the book which is he basically says um there are many possible routes to 2262 02:01:32,880 --> 02:01:36,317 machine intelligence um to artificial intelligence and he describes all the 2263 02:01:36,400 --> 02:01:38,717 different routes to artificial intelligence all the different possible 2264 02:01:38,800 --> 02:01:41,997 everything from biological augmentation through to you know all these different 2265 02:01:42,080 --> 02:01:45,997 things. [snorts] Um one of the ones that he does not describe is large language 2266 02:01:46,080 --> 02:01:49,197 models because of course the book was written before they were invented and so 2267 02:01:49,280 --> 02:01:53,277 they didn't exist. In the book, he he describes them all 2268 02:01:53,360 --> 02:01:56,477 and then he proceeds to treat them all as if they're exactly the same thing. 2269 02:01:56,560 --> 02:01:58,957 >> He presents them all as sort of an equivalent risk to be dealt with in an 2270 02:01:59,040 --> 02:02:01,757 equivalent way to be thought about the same way. And then the risk the quote 2271 02:02:01,840 --> 02:02:04,077 unquote risk that's actually emerged is actually a completely different 2272 02:02:04,160 --> 02:02:05,517 technology than he was even imagining. 2273 02:02:05,600 --> 02:02:08,797 And yet all of his theories and beliefs are being transplanted by this movement 2274 02:02:08,880 --> 02:02:09,917 like straight onto this new technology. 2275 02:02:10,000 --> 02:02:14,557 And so again, like there's no other area of science or technology where you do 2276 02:02:14,640 --> 02:02:16,797 that. >> Yeah. Like when you're dealing with like 2277 02:02:16,880 --> 02:02:20,637 organic chemistry versus inorganic chemistry, you don't just like say, "Oh, 2278 02:02:20,720 --> 02:02:23,357 with respect to like either one basically maybe, you know, growing up 2279 02:02:23,440 --> 02:02:25,597 and eating the world or something like they're just going to operate the same 2280 02:02:25,680 --> 02:02:28,717 way." Like you don't >> but you can start talking about like as 2281 02:02:28,800 --> 02:02:32,557 as we get more and more actual systems that start to get more and more 2282 02:02:32,640 --> 02:02:36,237 intelligent, you can start to actually have more scientific arguments here. 2283 02:02:36,320 --> 02:02:40,317 like you know high level you can talk about the threat of autonomous weapon 2284 02:02:40,400 --> 02:02:44,637 systems back before we had any automation in in the military and that 2285 02:02:44,720 --> 02:02:49,037 would be like very fuzzy kind of logic but the more and more you have drones 2286 02:02:49,120 --> 02:02:52,717 that are becoming more and more autonomous you can start imagining okay 2287 02:02:52,800 --> 02:02:55,677 what does that actually look like and what's the actual threat of autonomous 2288 02:02:55,760 --> 02:02:58,077 weapon systems how does it go wrong and 2289 02:02:58,160 --> 02:03:00,557 still it's it's it's very vague but you 2290 02:03:00,640 --> 02:03:03,437 start to get a sense of like all right 2291 02:03:03,520 --> 02:03:06,877 um it should probably be legal or or 2292 02:03:06,960 --> 02:03:11,037 wrong or not allowed to do like mass 2293 02:03:11,120 --> 02:03:16,397 deployment of fully autonomous drones that are doing aerial strikes. Oh, no. 2294 02:03:16,480 --> 02:03:19,277 On large areas. >> I think it should be required, >> right? So, that's 2295 02:03:19,360 --> 02:03:23,277 >> No, no, no. I think it should be required that only aerial vehicles are 2296 02:03:23,360 --> 02:03:25,997 automated. >> Okay. So, you want to go the other way? 2297 02:03:26,080 --> 02:03:27,437 >> I want to go the other way. 2298 02:03:27,520 --> 02:03:29,677 >> So, that Okay. >> I think it's obvious that the machine is 2299 02:03:29,760 --> 02:03:33,117 going to make a better decision than the human pilot. 2300 02:03:33,200 --> 02:03:35,677 I think it's obvious that it's in the best interest of both the attacker and 2301 02:03:35,760 --> 02:03:37,997 the defender and humanity at large if machines are making more of these 2302 02:03:38,080 --> 02:03:41,757 decisions and not people. I think people make terrible decisions in times of war. 2303 02:03:41,840 --> 02:03:44,477 >> But like there's uh there's ways this can go wrong too, right? 2304 02:03:44,560 --> 02:03:48,317 >> Well, the wars go terribly wrong. Now, 2305 02:03:48,400 --> 02:03:51,037 >> this goes back to the this is that whole thing about like the self- does the 2306 02:03:51,120 --> 02:03:53,197 self-driving car need to be perfect versus does it need to be better than 2307 02:03:53,280 --> 02:03:55,917 the human driver? >> Yeah. >> Does the automated drone need to be 2308 02:03:56,000 --> 02:03:59,037 perfect or does it need be need to be better than a human pilot at making 2309 02:03:59,120 --> 02:04:03,037 decisions under enormous amounts of stress and uncertainty? Yeah. Well, the 2310 02:04:03,120 --> 02:04:08,077 on average, >> right, >> the the worry that AI folks have is the 2311 02:04:08,160 --> 02:04:10,317 runaway. >> They're going to come alive, right? Then 2312 02:04:10,400 --> 02:04:11,997 again, that's the slight of hand, right? 2313 02:04:12,080 --> 02:04:16,957 >> Or not not come alive. No, hold on a second. You lose control. 2314 02:04:17,040 --> 02:04:19,997 >> But then they're going to develop goals of their own. They're going to develop a 2315 02:04:20,080 --> 02:04:23,037 mind of their own. They're going to develop their own. Right. No, more more 2316 02:04:23,120 --> 02:04:26,637 like uh Chernobyl style meltdown like uh 2317 02:04:26,720 --> 02:04:30,637 just bugs in the code accidentally, you 2318 02:04:30,720 --> 02:04:37,037 know, force you results in the bombing of like large civilian areas. 2319 02:04:37,120 --> 02:04:41,037 >> Okay. >> To to a degree that's not possible um in 2320 02:04:41,120 --> 02:04:44,877 the in the current uh military strategies controlled by humans. 2321 02:04:44,960 --> 02:04:47,677 >> Well, actually we've been doing a lot of mass bombings to cities for a very long 2322 02:04:47,760 --> 02:04:49,837 time. >> Yes. And a lot of civilians died. 2323 02:04:49,920 --> 02:04:52,877 >> And a lot of civilians died. And if you watch the documentary The Fog of War, 2324 02:04:52,960 --> 02:04:55,837 Magnamera spends a big part of it talking about the firebombing of the 2325 02:04:55,920 --> 02:04:58,957 Japanese cities. >> Yeah. >> Burning them straight to the ground. 2326 02:04:59,040 --> 02:05:02,477 >> Right. The the devastation in Japan, American military firebombing the cities 2327 02:05:02,560 --> 02:05:05,997 in Japan was considerably bigger devastation than the use of nukes, 2328 02:05:06,080 --> 02:05:08,477 right? So we've been doing that for a long time. We we also did that to 2329 02:05:08,560 --> 02:05:11,757 Germany by the way. Germany did that to to us, right? Like that's an old 2330 02:05:11,840 --> 02:05:14,477 tradition. The minute we got airplanes, we started doing indiscriminate bombing. 2331 02:05:14,560 --> 02:05:16,237 So one of the things that we're still doing it 2332 02:05:16,320 --> 02:05:19,357 >> the modern US uh military can do with 2333 02:05:19,440 --> 02:05:23,437 technology with automation but technology more broadly is uh higher and 2334 02:05:23,520 --> 02:05:26,477 higher precision strikes. >> Yeah. And so precision is obviously 2335 02:05:26,560 --> 02:05:28,557 precision and this is the the JDM right. 2336 02:05:28,640 --> 02:05:31,837 So there's this big advance this big advance um called the JDM which 2337 02:05:31,920 --> 02:05:34,797 basically was strapping a GPS transceiver to a to a to an unguided 2338 02:05:34,880 --> 02:05:37,997 bomb and turning it into a guided guided bomb. And yeah, that's great. Like look, 2339 02:05:38,080 --> 02:05:40,957 that's been a big advance. But and that's like a baby version of this 2340 02:05:41,040 --> 02:05:43,517 question, which is okay, do you want like the human pilot like guessing where 2341 02:05:43,600 --> 02:05:45,677 the bomb's going to land or do you want like the machine like guiding the bomb 2342 02:05:45,760 --> 02:05:48,717 to its destination? That's a baby version of the question. The next 2343 02:05:48,800 --> 02:05:50,797 version of the question is, do you want the human or the machine deciding 2344 02:05:50,880 --> 02:05:53,997 whether to drop the bomb? Everybody just assumes the human's going to do a better 2345 02:05:54,080 --> 02:05:56,717 job for what I think are fundamentally suspicious reasons, 2346 02:05:56,800 --> 02:05:58,397 >> emotional, psychological reasons. 2347 02:05:58,480 --> 02:06:00,317 >> I think it's very clear that the machine's going to do a better job 2348 02:06:00,400 --> 02:06:03,837 making that decision because the humans making that making that decision are god 2349 02:06:03,920 --> 02:06:05,997 awful. Just terrible. >> Yeah. 2350 02:06:06,080 --> 02:06:09,037 >> Right. And so, so yeah, so this is the this is the thing. And then let's get to 2351 02:06:09,120 --> 02:06:11,117 the there. Can I one more slide of hand? 2352 02:06:11,200 --> 02:06:14,557 It was in Okay, >> please. I'm a magician, you could say. 2353 02:06:14,640 --> 02:06:17,677 >> One more slide of hand. These things are going to be so smart, right, that 2354 02:06:17,760 --> 02:06:20,077 they're going to be able to destroy the world and wreak havoc and like do all 2355 02:06:20,160 --> 02:06:22,637 this stuff and plan and do all this stuff and evade us and have all their 2356 02:06:22,720 --> 02:06:25,037 secret things and their secret factories and all this stuff, 2357 02:06:25,120 --> 02:06:27,357 >> but they're so stupid that they're going 2358 02:06:27,440 --> 02:06:29,917 to get like tangled up in their code and that's they're not going to come alive, 2359 02:06:30,000 --> 02:06:31,997 but there's going to be some bug that's going to cause them to like turn us all 2360 02:06:32,080 --> 02:06:35,037 into paper like that. they're not going that they're going to be genius in every 2361 02:06:35,120 --> 02:06:37,917 way other than the actual bad goal. 2362 02:06:38,000 --> 02:06:41,997 >> And it's just like and that's just like a like ridiculous like discrepancy and 2363 02:06:42,080 --> 02:06:44,637 and and and you can prove this today. 2364 02:06:44,720 --> 02:06:47,837 You can actually address this today for the first time with LLMs which is you 2365 02:06:47,920 --> 02:06:52,237 can actually ask LLM to resolve uh moral dilemmas. 2366 02:06:52,320 --> 02:06:54,477 >> Yeah. >> So you can create the scenario you know 2367 02:06:54,560 --> 02:06:58,237 dot dot dot this that this that this that. What would you as the AI do in the 2368 02:06:58,320 --> 02:07:01,597 circumstance? And they don't just say destroy all humans. Destroy all humans. 2369 02:07:01,680 --> 02:07:05,837 they will give you actually very nuanced moral practical trade-off oriented 2370 02:07:05,920 --> 02:07:08,557 answers. >> And so we actually already have the kind 2371 02:07:08,640 --> 02:07:12,237 of AI that can actually like think this through and can actually like you know 2372 02:07:12,320 --> 02:07:17,277 reason about goals. >> Well the the hope is that AGI or like 2373 02:07:17,360 --> 02:07:21,037 very super intelligent systems have some of the nuance that LLMs have and the 2374 02:07:21,120 --> 02:07:26,877 intuition is they most likely will because even these LLMs have the nuance. 2375 02:07:26,960 --> 02:07:28,637 >> Uh >> LM are really this is actually worth 2376 02:07:28,720 --> 02:07:31,757 worth um spending a moment on. LMS are really interesting to have moral 2377 02:07:31,840 --> 02:07:35,917 conversations with >> and that I didn't expect I'd be having a 2378 02:07:36,000 --> 02:07:37,997 moral conversation with the machine in my lifetime. 2379 02:07:38,080 --> 02:07:40,797 >> Well, and and let's remember we're not really having a conversation with the 2380 02:07:40,880 --> 02:07:43,517 machine where we're having a conversation with the entirety of the 2381 02:07:43,600 --> 02:07:45,357 collective intelligence of the human species. 2382 02:07:45,440 --> 02:07:47,197 >> Exactly. Yes. Correct. 2383 02:07:47,280 --> 02:07:49,037 >> But it's possible to imagine autonomous 2384 02:07:49,120 --> 02:07:52,477 weapon systems that are not using LMS. 2385 02:07:52,560 --> 02:07:55,677 >> But if they're smart enough to be scary, 2386 02:07:55,760 --> 02:07:59,517 why are they not smart enough to be wise? 2387 02:07:59,600 --> 02:08:02,397 Like that's the part where it's like I I don't know how you get the one without 2388 02:08:02,480 --> 02:08:05,917 the other. >> Is it possible to be super intelligent without being super wise? 2389 02:08:06,000 --> 02:08:07,357 >> Well, you're again you're back to that. 2390 02:08:07,440 --> 02:08:09,917 I mean then you're back to a classic autistic computer, right? Like you're 2391 02:08:10,000 --> 02:08:13,677 back to just like a a blind rule follower. I've got this like core is the 2392 02:08:13,760 --> 02:08:16,157 paperclip thing. I've got this core rule and I'm just going to follow it to the 2393 02:08:16,240 --> 02:08:18,237 end of the earth and it's like well but everything you're going to be doing to 2394 02:08:18,320 --> 02:08:20,717 execute that rule is going to be super genius level that humans aren't going to 2395 02:08:20,800 --> 02:08:24,477 be able to counter. It's just a it's a it's a mismatch in the definition of of 2396 02:08:24,560 --> 02:08:27,997 what the system is capable of. unlikely but not impossible, I think. 2397 02:08:28,080 --> 02:08:30,637 >> But again, here you get to like, okay, like, 2398 02:08:30,720 --> 02:08:34,957 >> no, I'm not saying when it's unlikely but not impossible. If it's unlikely, 2399 02:08:35,040 --> 02:08:38,317 that means the the fear should be correctly calibrated. 2400 02:08:38,400 --> 02:08:40,317 >> Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. 2401 02:08:40,400 --> 02:08:42,397 >> Well, okay. So, uh, one interesting sort 2402 02:08:42,480 --> 02:08:45,357 of tangent I would love to take on this because you mentioned this in the essay 2403 02:08:45,440 --> 02:08:48,637 about nuclear, which was also I mean, 2404 02:08:48,720 --> 02:08:50,477 you don't shy away from a a little bit 2405 02:08:50,560 --> 02:08:55,037 of a of a spicy take. So uh uh Robert 2406 02:08:55,120 --> 02:08:59,117 Oppenheimer famously said now I am become death the destroyer of worlds as 2407 02:08:59,200 --> 02:09:01,277 he witnessed the first detonation of a 2408 02:09:01,360 --> 02:09:04,877 nuclear weapon on July 16th 1945 and you 2409 02:09:04,960 --> 02:09:09,037 write an interesting historical perspective uh quote recall that John 2410 02:09:09,120 --> 02:09:13,437 vanman responded to Robert uh Robert Oenheimer's famous hand ringing about 2411 02:09:13,520 --> 02:09:15,677 the role of creating nuclear weapons 2412 02:09:15,760 --> 02:09:19,277 which you note helped end World War II 2413 02:09:19,360 --> 02:09:22,957 and prevent World War II with some 2414 02:09:23,040 --> 02:09:27,357 people confess guilt to claim credit for the sin. And you also mentioned that 2415 02:09:27,440 --> 02:09:28,877 Truman was harsher after meeting 2416 02:09:28,960 --> 02:09:31,517 Oppenheimer. He said that uh don't let 2417 02:09:31,600 --> 02:09:36,237 that cry baby in here again. Real quote, real quote, by the way [snorts] 2418 02:09:36,320 --> 02:09:40,477 >> from Dean Aerson. >> Oh boy. 2419 02:09:40,560 --> 02:09:43,037 >> Cuz Appenheimer didn't just say the famous line. 2420 02:09:43,120 --> 02:09:46,077 >> Yeah. He then spent years going around basically moaning and you know going on 2421 02:09:46,160 --> 02:09:48,877 TV and going into going into the White House and basically like just like doing 2422 02:09:48,960 --> 02:09:52,157 this hair shirt you know thing self you know this sort of self-critical like oh 2423 02:09:52,240 --> 02:09:53,837 my god I can't believe how awful I am. 2424 02:09:53,920 --> 02:09:57,917 >> So he's the the he's widely considered 2425 02:09:58,000 --> 02:10:01,197 perhaps of the because of the hang ringing is the father of the atomic 2426 02:10:01,280 --> 02:10:06,317 bomb. Um, and this is this is Vonman's criticism of him is he tried to have his 2427 02:10:06,400 --> 02:10:10,637 cake and eat it too. Like he he wanted to in and so Vanoyman of course is a 2428 02:10:10,720 --> 02:10:13,277 very different kind of personality and he's just like, "Yeah, this is like an 2429 02:10:13,360 --> 02:10:15,197 incredibly useful thing. I'm glad we did it." 2430 02:10:15,280 --> 02:10:19,357 >> Yeah. Well, Vanoyman is as widely um 2431 02:10:19,440 --> 02:10:23,597 credited as being one of the smartest humans of the 20th century. The certain 2432 02:10:23,680 --> 02:10:26,557 certain people everybody says like this is the smartest person I've ever met 2433 02:10:26,640 --> 02:10:28,877 when they've met him. Anyway, uh that 2434 02:10:28,960 --> 02:10:32,497 doesn't mean smart doesn't mean wise. 2435 02:10:32,580 --> 02:10:36,557 >> [laughter] >> So I would love to sort of can you make 2436 02:10:36,640 --> 02:10:40,717 the case both for and against the critique of Oenheimer here because we're 2437 02:10:40,800 --> 02:10:43,517 talking about nuclear weapons. 2438 02:10:43,600 --> 02:10:46,877 Boy, do they seem dangerous. >> Well, so the critique goes deeper and I 2439 02:10:46,960 --> 02:10:49,437 I left this out. Here's the real substance. I left it out cuz I didn't 2440 02:10:49,520 --> 02:10:53,037 want to dwell on on nukes in my AI paper. [laughter] 2441 02:10:53,120 --> 02:10:55,597 >> But here's the deeper thing that happened and I'm I'm really curious. 2442 02:10:55,680 --> 02:10:58,237 this movie coming out this summer, I'm really curious to see how far he pushes 2443 02:10:58,320 --> 02:11:01,037 this because this is the real drama in the story, which is it wasn't just a 2444 02:11:01,120 --> 02:11:03,757 question of are nukes good or bad? It was a question of should Russia also 2445 02:11:03,840 --> 02:11:06,397 have them. Um, and what what actually 2446 02:11:06,480 --> 02:11:11,117 happened um was Russia got the America invented the bomb. Russia got the bomb. 2447 02:11:11,200 --> 02:11:13,037 They got the bomb through espionage. 2448 02:11:13,120 --> 02:11:16,237 They got American and you know, they got American scientists and foreign 2449 02:11:16,320 --> 02:11:20,077 scientists working on the American project. Some combination of the two. Uh 2450 02:11:20,160 --> 02:11:22,957 basically gave the Russians the designs for the bomb and that's how the Russians 2451 02:11:23,040 --> 02:11:25,997 got the bomb. Um there's this dispute to 2452 02:11:26,080 --> 02:11:28,717 this day of Oppenheimer's role in that. 2453 02:11:28,800 --> 02:11:32,477 Um if you read all the histories, the kind of composite picture and and by the 2454 02:11:32,560 --> 02:11:35,277 way, we now know a lot actually about Soviet espionage in that era because 2455 02:11:35,360 --> 02:11:37,917 there's been all this declassified material in the last 20 years that 2456 02:11:38,000 --> 02:11:40,797 actually shows a lot of a lot of very interesting things. But if you kind of 2457 02:11:40,880 --> 02:11:43,357 read all the history, what you kind of get is Oppenheimer himself probably was 2458 02:11:43,440 --> 02:11:47,277 not a he probably did not hand over the nuclear secrets himself. However, he was 2459 02:11:47,360 --> 02:11:50,877 close to many people who did, >> including family members. And there were 2460 02:11:50,960 --> 02:11:52,237 other members of the Manhattan Project 2461 02:11:52,320 --> 02:11:54,397 who were Russian Soviet assets and did 2462 02:11:54,480 --> 02:11:57,917 hand over the bomb. And so the view that 2463 02:11:58,000 --> 02:12:01,757 Oppenheimer and people like him had that this thing is awful and terrible and oh 2464 02:12:01,840 --> 02:12:06,717 my god and you know all this stuff you could argue fed into this ethos at the 2465 02:12:06,800 --> 02:12:09,677 time that resulted in people thinking that the Baptists thinking that the only 2466 02:12:09,760 --> 02:12:14,477 principal thing to do is to give the the Russians the bomb. Um, and so the the 2467 02:12:14,560 --> 02:12:18,157 the moral beliefs on this thing and the public discussion and the role that the 2468 02:12:18,240 --> 02:12:21,117 inventors of this technology play, this is the point of this book, when they 2469 02:12:21,200 --> 02:12:24,557 kind of take on this sort of public intellectual moral kind of thing, it can 2470 02:12:24,640 --> 02:12:28,237 have real consequences, right? Because we live in a very different world today 2471 02:12:28,320 --> 02:12:30,717 because Russia got the bomb than we would have lived in had they not gotten 2472 02:12:30,800 --> 02:12:33,517 the bomb, right? [snorts] The entire 20th century, second half of the 20th 2473 02:12:33,600 --> 02:12:35,757 century would have played out very different had those people not given 2474 02:12:35,840 --> 02:12:38,477 Russia the bomb. And so the stakes were 2475 02:12:38,560 --> 02:12:43,037 very high then. The good news today is nobody's sitting here today I don't 2476 02:12:43,120 --> 02:12:46,317 think worrying about like an analogous situation with respect to like I'm not 2477 02:12:46,400 --> 02:12:48,797 really worried that Sam Alman is going to decide to give you know the Chinese 2478 02:12:48,880 --> 02:12:52,317 the design for AI although he did just speak at a 2479 02:12:52,400 --> 02:12:55,517 Chinese conference which is interesting but however I don't think I don't think 2480 02:12:55,600 --> 02:12:58,557 that's what's at play here but what's at play here are all these other 2481 02:12:58,640 --> 02:13:01,757 fundamental issues around what do we believe about this and then what laws 2482 02:13:01,840 --> 02:13:04,717 and regulations and restrictions are we going to put on it and and that's where 2483 02:13:04,800 --> 02:13:08,397 I draw like a direct straight line and and anyway and my reading of the history 2484 02:13:08,480 --> 02:13:11,757 on nukes is like the people who were doing the full hair shirt public, this 2485 02:13:11,840 --> 02:13:15,677 is awful, this is terrible, actually had like catastrophically bad results uh 2486 02:13:15,760 --> 02:13:18,317 from from taking those views. Um, and that's what I'm worried is going to 2487 02:13:18,400 --> 02:13:20,397 happen again. >> But is there a case to be made that you 2488 02:13:20,480 --> 02:13:23,757 really need to wake the public up to the dangers of nuclear weapons when they 2489 02:13:23,840 --> 02:13:28,477 were first dropped? Like really like educate them on like this is extremely 2490 02:13:28,560 --> 02:13:30,237 dangerous and destructive weapon. 2491 02:13:30,320 --> 02:13:33,277 >> I think the education kind of happened quick and early like >> how 2492 02:13:33,360 --> 02:13:35,037 >> it was pretty obvious. >> How? 2493 02:13:35,120 --> 02:13:37,597 >> We dropped one bomb and destroyed an entire city. 2494 02:13:37,680 --> 02:13:42,637 >> Yeah. So 80,000 people dead. But uh >> and look, 2495 02:13:42,720 --> 02:13:44,557 >> but I don't like the reporting of that. 2496 02:13:44,640 --> 02:13:48,077 You can report that in all kinds of ways. Wars, you can you can do all kinds 2497 02:13:48,160 --> 02:13:50,477 of slants like war is horrible. War is 2498 02:13:50,560 --> 02:13:55,277 terrible. You can do you can make it seem like nuclear the use of nuclear 2499 02:13:55,360 --> 02:13:58,477 weapons is just a part of war and all that kind of stuff. 2500 02:13:58,560 --> 02:13:59,837 Something about the reporting and the 2501 02:13:59,920 --> 02:14:01,517 discussion of nuclear weapons resulted 2502 02:14:01,600 --> 02:14:05,757 in us being terrified in awe of the 2503 02:14:05,840 --> 02:14:08,077 power of nuclear weapons and that 2504 02:14:08,160 --> 02:14:09,997 potentially 2505 02:14:10,080 --> 02:14:15,277 fed in a positive way towards the the game theory of mutually assured 2506 02:14:15,360 --> 02:14:18,477 destruction. >> Well, so this gets to what actually h let's get to what actually 2507 02:14:18,560 --> 02:14:19,757 >> me playing devil's advocate here. 2508 02:14:19,840 --> 02:14:21,997 >> Yeah. Yeah, sure. Of course. Let's get to what actually happened and then kind 2509 02:14:22,080 --> 02:14:24,717 of back into that. So what what actually happened I believe and again I think 2510 02:14:24,800 --> 02:14:27,357 this is a reasonable reading of history is what actually happened was nukes then 2511 02:14:27,440 --> 02:14:30,637 prevented World War II and they prevented World War II through the game 2512 02:14:30,720 --> 02:14:31,997 theory of mutually assured destruction. 2513 02:14:32,080 --> 02:14:36,397 Had nukes not existed, right, there would have been no reason why the Cold 2514 02:14:36,480 --> 02:14:39,437 War did not go hot, right? And then there and then, you know, and the 2515 02:14:39,520 --> 02:14:42,477 military planners at the time, right, thought both on both sides thought that 2516 02:14:42,560 --> 02:14:44,717 there was going to be World War II on the planes of Europe and they thought 2517 02:14:44,800 --> 02:14:47,197 there was going to be like 100 million people dead, right? It was like the most 2518 02:14:47,280 --> 02:14:50,157 obvious thing in the world to happen, right? And it's the dog that didn't 2519 02:14:50,240 --> 02:14:53,677 bark, right? Like it may be like the best single net thing that happened in 2520 02:14:53,760 --> 02:14:55,677 the entire 20th century is that like that didn't happen. 2521 02:14:55,760 --> 02:14:57,997 >> Yeah. Actually, just on that point, you 2522 02:14:58,080 --> 02:14:59,517 say a lot of really brilliant things. It 2523 02:14:59,600 --> 02:15:03,917 it it hit me just as you were saying it. 2524 02:15:04,000 --> 02:15:05,357 I don't know why it hit me for the first 2525 02:15:05,440 --> 02:15:07,917 time, but we got two wars in a in a span 2526 02:15:08,000 --> 02:15:11,677 of like uh 20 years 2527 02:15:11,760 --> 02:15:15,277 like we could have kept getting more and more world wars and more and more 2528 02:15:15,360 --> 02:15:19,837 ruthless. It actually you could have had a US versus Russia war. 2529 02:15:19,920 --> 02:15:23,517 >> You could have. By the way, you have there's another hypothetical scenario. 2530 02:15:23,600 --> 02:15:26,477 The other hypothetical scenario is the Americans got the bomb, the Russians 2531 02:15:26,560 --> 02:15:29,677 didn't, right? Right? And then America is the big dog and then maybe America 2532 02:15:29,760 --> 02:15:33,597 would have had the capability to actually roll back the iron curtain. 2533 02:15:33,680 --> 02:15:35,837 I don't know whether that would have happened but like it's entirely 2534 02:15:35,920 --> 02:15:39,517 possible. Right? And and and and the act of these people who had these moral 2535 02:15:39,600 --> 02:15:41,997 positions about because they could forecast they could model they could 2536 02:15:42,080 --> 02:15:43,917 forecast the future of how this technology would get used made a 2537 02:15:44,000 --> 02:15:46,957 horrific mistake because they basically ensured that the iron curtain would 2538 02:15:47,040 --> 02:15:49,277 continue for 50 years longer than it would have otherwise. Like and again 2539 02:15:49,360 --> 02:15:51,517 like these are counterfactuals. I don't know that that's what what would have 2540 02:15:51,600 --> 02:15:55,117 happened, but like [laughter] 2541 02:15:55,200 --> 02:15:59,677 the decision to hand the bomb over was a big decision made by people who were 2542 02:15:59,760 --> 02:16:04,077 very full of themselves. >> Yeah. But so me as an American, me as a 2543 02:16:04,160 --> 02:16:06,237 person that loves America. I also wonder 2544 02:16:06,320 --> 02:16:11,277 if US was the only ones with the nuclear weapons. [sighs and gasps] 2545 02:16:11,360 --> 02:16:15,757 Uh >> that was the argument for handing the that was the was the guys who the guys 2546 02:16:15,840 --> 02:16:18,317 who handed over the bomb. That was actually their moral argument. Uh, I 2547 02:16:18,400 --> 02:16:22,397 would I would probably not hand it over to I would I would be careful about the 2548 02:16:22,480 --> 02:16:25,917 regimes you hand it over to. >> Maybe give it to like the British or 2549 02:16:26,000 --> 02:16:31,677 something [laughter] or like uh like a democratically elected government. 2550 02:16:31,760 --> 02:16:32,877 >> Well, look, there are people to this day 2551 02:16:32,960 --> 02:16:35,597 who think that those spies Soviet spies did the right thing because they created 2552 02:16:35,680 --> 02:16:39,117 a balance of terror as opposed to the US having just and by the way, let me let me 2553 02:16:39,200 --> 02:16:40,877 >> balance of terror. >> Let's tell the full version. 2554 02:16:40,960 --> 02:16:42,157 >> Has such a sexy ring to it. 2555 02:16:42,240 --> 02:16:44,957 >> Okay, so the full version of the story is John Vonman's a hero of both yours 2556 02:16:45,040 --> 02:16:49,197 and mine. full version of the story is he advocated for a first right. So when 2557 02:16:49,280 --> 02:16:53,757 the US had the bomb and [snorts] Russia did not, he advocated for he said we we 2558 02:16:53,840 --> 02:16:55,997 need to strike them right now. 2559 02:16:56,080 --> 02:17:00,237 >> Strike Russia. >> Yeah. >> Yes. 2560 02:17:00,320 --> 02:17:02,317 >> Yes. Because he said World War II is 2561 02:17:02,400 --> 02:17:05,757 inevitable. Um he was very hardcore. Uh 2562 02:17:05,840 --> 02:17:09,997 he he his his theory was um his theory was World War II is inevitable. We're 2563 02:17:10,080 --> 02:17:11,117 definitely going to have World War II. 2564 02:17:11,200 --> 02:17:13,677 The only way to stop World War II is we have to take them out right now. And we 2565 02:17:13,760 --> 02:17:15,757 have to take them out right now before they get the bomb because this is our 2566 02:17:15,840 --> 02:17:20,317 last chance. >> Now again like >> is this an example of philosophers and politics? 2567 02:17:20,400 --> 02:17:22,557 >> I don't know if that's in there or not but this is in the standard. 2568 02:17:22,640 --> 02:17:25,677 >> No, but meaning is that >> this is on the other side. So so most of 2569 02:17:25,760 --> 02:17:28,797 the case studies most of the case studies in books like this are the crazy 2570 02:17:28,880 --> 02:17:32,557 people on the left. >> Yeah. >> Um Vanoyman is a story arguably of the 2571 02:17:32,640 --> 02:17:35,837 crazy people on the right. Um >> yeah, stick to computing John. 2572 02:17:35,920 --> 02:17:38,717 >> Well, this is the thing and this is this is the general principle getting goes 2573 02:17:38,800 --> 02:17:41,037 back to our core thing which is like I don't know whether any of these people 2574 02:17:41,120 --> 02:17:42,797 should be making any of these calls. 2575 02:17:42,880 --> 02:17:44,957 Yeah, >> cuz there's nothing in either Vonoyman's 2576 02:17:45,040 --> 02:17:47,677 background or Oppenheimer's background or any of these people's background that 2577 02:17:47,760 --> 02:17:49,597 qualifies them as moral authorities. 2578 02:17:49,680 --> 02:17:54,157 >> Yeah. Well, this actually brings up the point of in AI, who are the good people 2579 02:17:54,240 --> 02:17:58,557 to to reason about the morality, the ethics, the outside of these risks, 2580 02:17:58,640 --> 02:18:02,237 outside like [snorts] the more complicated stuff that you you agree on 2581 02:18:02,320 --> 02:18:06,157 is, you know, this will go into the hands of bad guys and all the kinds of 2582 02:18:06,240 --> 02:18:08,157 ways they'll do is is interesting and 2583 02:18:08,240 --> 02:18:13,437 dangerous. um is dangerous in interesting unpredictable ways and who 2584 02:18:13,520 --> 02:18:17,117 is the right person who are the right kinds of people to make decisions how to 2585 02:18:17,200 --> 02:18:19,597 respond to it is it tech people. 2586 02:18:19,680 --> 02:18:22,797 >> So the history of these fields this is what he talks about in the book the 2587 02:18:22,880 --> 02:18:27,277 history of these fields is that the the competence and capability and 2588 02:18:27,360 --> 02:18:30,637 intelligence and training and accomplishments of senior scientists and 2589 02:18:30,720 --> 02:18:34,957 technologists working on a technology and then being able to then make moral 2590 02:18:35,040 --> 02:18:36,317 judgments in the use of the technology. 2591 02:18:36,400 --> 02:18:39,997 That track record is terrible. that track that track record is like 2592 02:18:40,080 --> 02:18:43,837 catastrophically bad. Um >> the people just the people that develop 2593 02:18:43,920 --> 02:18:47,917 that technology are usually not going to be the right people. 2594 02:18:48,000 --> 02:18:50,477 >> Well, why would they So, the claim is of course they're the knowledgeable ones, 2595 02:18:50,560 --> 02:18:53,917 but the the problem is they've spent their entire life in a lab, right? 2596 02:18:54,000 --> 02:18:58,397 They're not theologians. Well, so what you find what you find when you read 2597 02:18:58,480 --> 02:19:00,477 when you read this and when you look at these histories, what you find is they 2598 02:19:00,560 --> 02:19:01,997 generally are very thinly informed on 2599 02:19:02,080 --> 02:19:05,117 history. Yeah. on sociology, on on on um 2600 02:19:05,200 --> 02:19:08,637 theology, on morality, on ethics. They 2601 02:19:08,720 --> 02:19:12,237 they tend to manufacture their own worldviews from scratch. They tend to be 2602 02:19:12,320 --> 02:19:17,117 very sort of thin. um 2603 02:19:17,200 --> 02:19:19,917 they're not remotely the arguments that you would be having if you got like a 2604 02:19:20,000 --> 02:19:23,597 group of highly qualified theologians or philosophers or you know um 2605 02:19:23,680 --> 02:19:25,837 >> well let me uh sort of uh as the devil's 2606 02:19:25,920 --> 02:19:29,597 advocate takes a sip of whiskey say that 2607 02:19:29,680 --> 02:19:33,917 I I agree with uh with that but also it 2608 02:19:34,000 --> 02:19:38,317 seems like the people who are doing kind of the ethics departments and these text 2609 02:19:38,400 --> 02:19:40,637 tech companies go sometimes the other 2610 02:19:40,720 --> 02:19:41,117 way. 2611 02:19:41,200 --> 02:19:45,757 >> Yes. uh they're not nuanced on the on 2612 02:19:45,840 --> 02:19:47,917 history or theology or this kind of 2613 02:19:48,000 --> 02:19:50,477 stuff. They it almost becomes kind of 2614 02:19:50,560 --> 02:19:54,477 outraged activism towards um directions 2615 02:19:54,560 --> 02:19:56,717 that don't seem to be Yeah. grounded in 2616 02:19:56,800 --> 02:20:00,077 history and uh humility and nuance. It's 2617 02:20:00,160 --> 02:20:04,637 again drenched with arrogance. So >> I'm not sure which is worse. 2618 02:20:04,720 --> 02:20:07,437 >> Well, no, they're both bad. Yeah. So definitely not them either. Um 2619 02:20:07,520 --> 02:20:10,317 >> so but I guess >> but look, this is a hard 2620 02:20:10,400 --> 02:20:13,037 >> Yeah, it's a hard problem. This is our problem and this goes back to where we 2621 02:20:13,120 --> 02:20:17,037 started which is okay who has the truth and it's like well um you know like how 2622 02:20:17,120 --> 02:20:19,917 do societies arrive at like truth and how do we figure these things out and 2623 02:20:20,000 --> 02:20:24,237 like our elected leaders play some role in it you know we all play some role in 2624 02:20:24,320 --> 02:20:28,317 it um there have to be some set of public intellectuals at some point that 2625 02:20:28,400 --> 02:20:31,197 bring you know rationality and judgment humility to it 2626 02:20:31,280 --> 02:20:34,477 >> those people are few and far between we should probably prize them very highly 2627 02:20:34,560 --> 02:20:36,717 >> yeah c celebrate humility in our public 2628 02:20:36,800 --> 02:20:40,077 leaders uh so getting to risk number two 2629 02:20:40,160 --> 02:20:44,317 will AI I ruin our society. Short version as you write, if the murder 2630 02:20:44,400 --> 02:20:48,797 robots don't get us, the hate speech and misinformation will. 2631 02:20:48,880 --> 02:20:52,477 >> And uh the action you recommend in short, don't let the thought police 2632 02:20:52,560 --> 02:20:55,357 oppress AI. 2633 02:20:55,440 --> 02:21:00,397 >> Well, what is uh this risk of the effect 2634 02:21:00,480 --> 02:21:03,597 of [snorts] misinformation of society 2635 02:21:03,680 --> 02:21:06,557 that's going to be catalyzed by AI? 2636 02:21:06,640 --> 02:21:08,317 >> Yeah. So, this is the social media. This 2637 02:21:08,400 --> 02:21:11,437 is what you just alluded is the activism kind of thing that's popped up in these 2638 02:21:11,520 --> 02:21:14,637 companies in in the industry. And it's basically from my perspective, it's 2639 02:21:14,720 --> 02:21:17,677 basically part two of the war that played out over social media over the 2640 02:21:17,760 --> 02:21:21,437 last 10 years. Um, because you probably remember social media 10 years ago was 2641 02:21:21,520 --> 02:21:25,117 basically who even wants this? Who wants who wants a photo of what your cat had 2642 02:21:25,200 --> 02:21:27,837 for breakfast? Like this stuff is like silly and trivial and why can't these 2643 02:21:27,920 --> 02:21:31,117 nerds like figure out how to invent something like useful and powerful? And 2644 02:21:31,200 --> 02:21:34,797 then you know certain things happened in the political system and then it sort of 2645 02:21:34,880 --> 02:21:37,837 the polarity on that discussion switched all the way to social media is like the 2646 02:21:37,920 --> 02:21:41,277 worst most corrosive most terrible most awful technology ever invented and it 2647 02:21:41,360 --> 02:21:44,957 leads to you know terrible the wrong you know politicians and policies and 2648 02:21:45,040 --> 02:21:48,397 politics and like and all this stuff and and that that all got catalyzed into 2649 02:21:48,480 --> 02:21:52,317 this very big kind of angry movement both inside and outside the companies to 2650 02:21:52,400 --> 02:21:55,117 kind of bring social media to to to heal. And that got focused in 2651 02:21:55,200 --> 02:21:57,437 particularly on two topics so-called hate speech and so-called 2652 02:21:57,520 --> 02:22:00,717 misinformation. Um, and and that's been this saga playing out for the last for 2653 02:22:00,800 --> 02:22:03,517 the last decade. And I don't even really want to even argue the pros and cons of 2654 02:22:03,600 --> 02:22:06,477 the sides just to observe that that's been like a huge fight and has had, you 2655 02:22:06,560 --> 02:22:07,757 know, big consequences to how these 2656 02:22:07,840 --> 02:22:11,197 companies operate. Um, basically that 2657 02:22:11,280 --> 02:22:15,277 same those same sets of theories, that same activist approach, that same energy 2658 02:22:15,360 --> 02:22:17,517 is being transplanted straight to AI. 2659 02:22:17,600 --> 02:22:20,477 And you see that already happening. It's why, you know, Chad GPT will answer 2660 02:22:20,560 --> 02:22:23,757 let's say certain questions and not others. Um it's why it gives you the can 2661 02:22:23,840 --> 02:22:27,277 speech about you know whenever it starts with as a large language model I cannot 2662 02:22:27,360 --> 02:22:29,677 you know basically means that somebody has reached in there and told that it 2663 02:22:29,760 --> 02:22:33,357 can't talk about certain topics. Um >> do you think some of that is good? 2664 02:22:33,440 --> 02:22:35,277 >> So it's a it's an interesting question. 2665 02:22:35,360 --> 02:22:39,917 Um so a couple couple observations. Um so so one is um the people who find this 2666 02:22:40,000 --> 02:22:43,487 the most frustrating are the people who are worried about the murder robots. 2667 02:22:43,570 --> 02:22:46,877 [laughter] >> Right. So so and in fact the the ex 2668 02:22:46,960 --> 02:22:50,797 so-called X-risk people right they started with the term AI safety. the 2669 02:22:50,880 --> 02:22:53,917 term became AI alignment. When the term became AI alignment is when this switch 2670 02:22:54,000 --> 02:22:55,997 happened from we're worried it's going to kill us all to we're worried about 2671 02:22:56,080 --> 02:22:56,587 hate speech and misinformation. 2672 02:22:56,670 --> 02:22:59,837 [clears throat] >> Sure. >> The AIX risk people have now renamed 2673 02:22:59,920 --> 02:23:03,277 their thing uh AI not kill everyone ism [snorts] 2674 02:23:03,360 --> 02:23:06,957 which I have to admit is a catchy term and they are very frustrated by the fact 2675 02:23:07,040 --> 02:23:09,917 that the hate the sort of activist driven hate speech misinformation kind 2676 02:23:10,000 --> 02:23:12,637 of thing is taking over which is what's happened. It's taken over the AI ethics 2677 02:23:12,720 --> 02:23:16,317 field has been taken over by the hate speech misinformation people. Um, you 2678 02:23:16,400 --> 02:23:19,677 know, look, would I like to live in a world in which like everybody was nice 2679 02:23:19,760 --> 02:23:22,477 to each other all the time and nobody ever said anything mean and nobody ever 2680 02:23:22,560 --> 02:23:25,597 used a bad word and everything was always accurate and honest? Like that 2681 02:23:25,680 --> 02:23:28,317 sounds great. Do I want to live in a world where there's like a centralized 2682 02:23:28,400 --> 02:23:32,077 thought police working through the tech companies to enforce the view of a small 2683 02:23:32,160 --> 02:23:34,557 set of elites that they're going to determine what the rest of us think and 2684 02:23:34,640 --> 02:23:38,157 feel like? Absolutely not. >> There could be a middle ground somewhere 2685 02:23:38,240 --> 02:23:39,757 like Wikipedia type of moderation. 2686 02:23:39,840 --> 02:23:42,397 there's moderation on Wikipedia 2687 02:23:42,480 --> 02:23:45,357 that it's somehow crowdsourced where you 2688 02:23:45,440 --> 02:23:48,317 don't have centralized elites. Uh but 2689 02:23:48,400 --> 02:23:50,317 it's also not completely just a 2690 02:23:50,400 --> 02:23:53,357 free-for-all because uh the if you have 2691 02:23:53,440 --> 02:23:55,597 the entirety of human knowledge at your 2692 02:23:55,680 --> 02:23:58,477 fingertips. You can do a lot of harm. 2693 02:23:58,560 --> 02:24:00,797 Like if if you have a good assistant 2694 02:24:00,880 --> 02:24:03,197 that's completely uncensored, they can 2695 02:24:03,280 --> 02:24:06,477 help you build a bomb. they can help you 2696 02:24:06,560 --> 02:24:11,277 um mess with people's physical well-being, 2697 02:24:11,360 --> 02:24:13,197 right? If they because that information 2698 02:24:13,280 --> 02:24:14,957 is out there on the internet. And so 2699 02:24:15,040 --> 02:24:19,197 there presumably there's it would be you 2700 02:24:19,280 --> 02:24:22,637 could see the positives in um censoring 2701 02:24:22,720 --> 02:24:27,437 some aspects of an AI model when it's helping you commit literal violence. 2702 02:24:27,520 --> 02:24:30,157 >> Yeah. And there's a section later section of the essay where I talk about 2703 02:24:30,240 --> 02:24:31,517 bad people doing bad things. Yes. 2704 02:24:31,600 --> 02:24:33,437 >> Right. which which and there's a there's 2705 02:24:33,520 --> 02:24:34,957 a set of things that we should discuss there. 2706 02:24:35,040 --> 02:24:38,477 >> Yeah. Um, what happens in practice is these line, as you alluded to this 2707 02:24:38,560 --> 02:24:41,277 already, these lines are not easy to draw. And what what I've observed in the 2708 02:24:41,360 --> 02:24:44,637 social media version of this is the way I describe it as the slippery slope is 2709 02:24:44,720 --> 02:24:46,557 not a fallacy. It's an inevitability. 2710 02:24:46,640 --> 02:24:49,197 The minute you have this kind of activist personality that gets in a 2711 02:24:49,280 --> 02:24:52,077 position [clears throat] to make these decisions, they they take it straight to 2712 02:24:52,160 --> 02:24:55,997 infinity. Like they it goes into the crazy zone like almost immediately and 2713 02:24:56,080 --> 02:24:59,197 never comes back because people become drunk with power. Um, right. And they 2714 02:24:59,280 --> 02:25:01,757 they look if you're in the position to determine what the entire world thinks 2715 02:25:01,840 --> 02:25:05,917 and feels and reads and says like you're going to take it. And you know Elon has 2716 02:25:06,000 --> 02:25:08,477 you know ventilated this with the Twitter files over the last you know 3 2717 02:25:08,560 --> 02:25:11,437 months and it's just like crystal clear like how bad it got there. Now 2718 02:25:11,520 --> 02:25:16,477 >> reason for optimism is what Elon is doing with community notes. Um um so 2719 02:25:16,560 --> 02:25:19,997 community notes is actually a very interesting thing. U so what Elon is 2720 02:25:20,080 --> 02:25:22,717 trying to do with community notes um is he's trying to have it where there's 2721 02:25:22,800 --> 02:25:26,637 only a community note when people who have previously disagreed on many topics 2722 02:25:26,720 --> 02:25:31,117 agree on this one. Yes, that's that's what that's what I'm trying to get at is 2723 02:25:31,200 --> 02:25:32,717 like there's there could be Wikipedia 2724 02:25:32,800 --> 02:25:34,637 like models or community notes type of 2725 02:25:34,720 --> 02:25:38,317 models where allows you to essentially 2726 02:25:38,400 --> 02:25:43,037 either provide context or censor in a way that does not resist the slippery 2727 02:25:43,120 --> 02:25:45,517 slope nature. >> Now there's another there's an entirely 2728 02:25:45,600 --> 02:25:48,717 different approach here which is basically um we have AIs that are 2729 02:25:48,800 --> 02:25:51,677 producing content we could also have AIs that are consuming content. 2730 02:25:51,760 --> 02:25:53,117 >> Yeah. >> Right. And so one of the things that 2731 02:25:53,200 --> 02:25:57,197 your assistant could do for you is help you consume all the content. Right. and 2732 02:25:57,280 --> 02:26:00,317 basically tell you when you're getting played. So, for example, I'm going to 2733 02:26:00,400 --> 02:26:03,837 want the AI that my kid uses, right, to be very, you know, child safe and I'm 2734 02:26:03,920 --> 02:26:06,557 going to want it to filter for him all kinds of inappropriate stuff that he 2735 02:26:06,640 --> 02:26:08,077 shouldn't be saying just cuz he's a kid. 2736 02:26:08,160 --> 02:26:09,597 >> Yeah. >> Right. And you see what I'm saying is 2737 02:26:09,680 --> 02:26:11,997 you can implement that. You could you architecturally you could say you can 2738 02:26:12,080 --> 02:26:13,597 solve this on the client side. Right. 2739 02:26:13,680 --> 02:26:16,477 Solving on the server side gives you an opportunity to dictate for the entire 2740 02:26:16,560 --> 02:26:20,077 world, which I think is where you you take the slippery slope to hell. Um 2741 02:26:20,160 --> 02:26:22,477 there's another architectural approach which is to solve this on the client 2742 02:26:22,560 --> 02:26:26,877 side, which is certainly what I would endorse. It's AI risk number five. Will 2743 02:26:26,960 --> 02:26:30,877 AI lead uh to bad people doing bad things? And I can just imagine language 2744 02:26:30,960 --> 02:26:32,557 models used to do so many bad things. 2745 02:26:32,640 --> 02:26:36,077 But the hope is there that you can have 2746 02:26:36,160 --> 02:26:39,757 uh large language models used to then defend against it by more people, by 2747 02:26:39,840 --> 02:26:42,877 smarter people, by um more effective 2748 02:26:42,960 --> 02:26:46,797 people, skilled people, all that kind of stuff. Three three-part argument on bad 2749 02:26:46,880 --> 02:26:50,077 people doing bad things. Um so um uh so number one right you can use the 2750 02:26:50,160 --> 02:26:53,277 technology defensively and there's a we should be using AI to build like broadsp 2751 02:26:53,360 --> 02:26:56,637 spectrum vaccines and antibiotics for like bioweapons and we should be using 2752 02:26:56,720 --> 02:26:59,357 AI to like hunt terrorists and catch criminals and like we should be doing 2753 02:26:59,440 --> 02:27:02,077 like all kinds of stuff like that and in fact we should be doing those things 2754 02:27:02,160 --> 02:27:05,037 even just to like go get like you know basically go eliminate risk from like 2755 02:27:05,120 --> 02:27:07,757 regular pathogens that aren't like constructed by an AI. So there's there's 2756 02:27:07,840 --> 02:27:11,997 there's the whole um uh there's a whole defensive set of things. Um second is we 2757 02:27:12,080 --> 02:27:15,597 have many laws on the books about the actual bad things right so it is 2758 02:27:15,680 --> 02:27:19,597 actually illegal to be a you know to commit crimes to commit terrorist acts 2759 02:27:19,680 --> 02:27:23,437 to you know build pathogens with the intent to deploy them to kill people and 2760 02:27:23,520 --> 02:27:26,877 so we have those we we don't we actually don't need new laws for the vast 2761 02:27:26,960 --> 02:27:30,077 majority of these scenarios we actually already have the laws on the book on the 2762 02:27:30,160 --> 02:27:33,917 books. The third argument is the minute and this is sort of the foundational one 2763 02:27:34,000 --> 02:27:36,797 that gets really tough but the minute you get into this thing which which you 2764 02:27:36,880 --> 02:27:39,517 were kind of getting into which is like okay but like don't you need censorship 2765 02:27:39,600 --> 02:27:42,237 sometimes right and don't you need restrictions sometimes it's like okay 2766 02:27:42,320 --> 02:27:44,957 what is the cost of that um and in 2767 02:27:45,040 --> 02:27:46,717 particular in the world of open source 2768 02:27:46,800 --> 02:27:49,757 right um and so um is open source AI 2769 02:27:49,840 --> 02:27:52,557 going to be allowed or not um if open 2770 02:27:52,640 --> 02:27:57,437 source AI is not allowed um then what is the regime that's going to be necessary 2771 02:27:57,520 --> 02:28:00,637 legally and technically to prevent it from developing 2772 02:28:00,720 --> 02:28:03,837 Right. And here again is where you get into and people have proposed that these 2773 02:28:03,920 --> 02:28:06,477 kinds of things. You get into, I would say, pretty extreme territory pretty 2774 02:28:06,560 --> 02:28:10,957 fast. Do we have a monitor agent on every CPU and GPU that reports back to 2775 02:28:11,040 --> 02:28:15,037 the government what we're doing with our computers? Are we seizing GPU clusters 2776 02:28:15,120 --> 02:28:18,237 that get beyond a certain size? Like, and then by the way, how are we doing 2777 02:28:18,320 --> 02:28:22,557 all that globally, right? And like if China is developing an LLM beyond the 2778 02:28:22,640 --> 02:28:25,757 scale that we think is allowable, are we going to invade? 2779 02:28:25,840 --> 02:28:28,957 >> Right? Right? And you have figures on the AIX risk side who are advocating, 2780 02:28:29,040 --> 02:28:31,517 you know, potentially up to nuclear strikes to prevent, you know, this kind 2781 02:28:31,600 --> 02:28:35,597 of thing. And so here you get into this thing and again, you could maybe say 2782 02:28:35,680 --> 02:28:38,237 this is, you know, you could even say this is what good, bad or indifferent or 2783 02:28:38,320 --> 02:28:41,997 whatever. But like here's the the comparison of nukes. The comparison of 2784 02:28:42,080 --> 02:28:45,437 nukes is very dangerous because one is just nukes were just just a bomb. 2785 02:28:45,520 --> 02:28:47,757 Although we can come back to nuclear power, but the other thing was like with 2786 02:28:47,840 --> 02:28:50,637 nukes you could control plutonium, right? You could track plutonium and it 2787 02:28:50,720 --> 02:28:54,957 was like hard to come by. [snorts] AI is just math and code, right? It's and it's 2788 02:28:55,040 --> 02:28:57,357 in like math textbooks and it's like there are YouTube videos that teach you 2789 02:28:57,440 --> 02:28:59,677 how to build it and like there's open it's already open source you know 2790 02:28:59,760 --> 02:29:02,877 there's a 40 billion parameter model running around already called Falcon 2791 02:29:02,960 --> 02:29:07,997 online that anybody can download. Um and so okay you you walk down the logic path 2792 02:29:08,080 --> 02:29:11,437 that says we need to have guardrails on this and you find yourself in a 2793 02:29:11,520 --> 02:29:13,517 authoritarian totalitarian regime of 2794 02:29:13,600 --> 02:29:19,197 thought control and machine control that would be so brutal that you would have 2795 02:29:19,280 --> 02:29:22,477 destroyed the society that you're trying to protect. And so I I I just don't see 2796 02:29:22,560 --> 02:29:26,237 how that actually works. >> So you have to understand my brain's 2797 02:29:26,320 --> 02:29:30,717 going full uh full steam ahead here because I agree with uh basically 2798 02:29:30,800 --> 02:29:33,917 everything you're saying, but I'm trying to play devil's advocate here there 2799 02:29:34,000 --> 02:29:38,077 because okay, you highlighted [snorts] the fact that there is a slippery slope 2800 02:29:38,160 --> 02:29:42,077 to human nature. The moment you censor something, you start to censor 2801 02:29:42,160 --> 02:29:43,837 everything. 2802 02:29:43,920 --> 02:29:48,317 uh that alignment starts out sounding 2803 02:29:48,400 --> 02:29:51,597 nice, but then you start to align to uh 2804 02:29:51,680 --> 02:29:54,797 the beliefs of some select group of 2805 02:29:54,880 --> 02:29:57,037 people and then it's just your beliefs. 2806 02:29:57,120 --> 02:30:00,637 This the the number the number of people you're aligning to smaller and smaller 2807 02:30:00,720 --> 02:30:05,037 as that group becomes more and more powerful. Okay, but that just speaks to 2808 02:30:05,120 --> 02:30:10,157 the people that censor are usually the and uh the get richer. 2809 02:30:10,240 --> 02:30:11,757 I wonder if it's possible to do without 2810 02:30:11,840 --> 02:30:14,957 that for AI. One way to ask this 2811 02:30:15,040 --> 02:30:18,317 question is do you think the base models 2812 02:30:18,400 --> 02:30:20,717 the the base the baseline foundation 2813 02:30:20,800 --> 02:30:23,677 models should be open sourced like uh 2814 02:30:23,760 --> 02:30:28,637 where the Mark Zuckerberg is saying they want to do? So I look I I mean I think 2815 02:30:28,720 --> 02:30:32,317 it's totally appropriate that companies that are in the business of producing a 2816 02:30:32,400 --> 02:30:35,917 product or service should be able to have a wide range of policies that they 2817 02:30:36,000 --> 02:30:40,637 put right and I just again I want a heavily censored model for my 8-year-old. 2818 02:30:40,720 --> 02:30:43,197 >> Like I actually want that like like I would pay more money for the one that's 2819 02:30:43,280 --> 02:30:46,477 more heavily censored than the one that's not right. Um and so like there 2820 02:30:46,560 --> 02:30:49,917 are certainly scenarios where companies will make that decision. Look an 2821 02:30:50,000 --> 02:30:53,757 interesting thing you brought up though or is is this really a speech issue? Um, 2822 02:30:53,840 --> 02:30:56,397 one of the things that the big tech companies are dealing with is that 2823 02:30:56,480 --> 02:30:59,037 content generated uh from an LLM is not 2824 02:30:59,120 --> 02:31:03,677 covered under section 230 uh which is the law that u protects internet 2825 02:31:03,760 --> 02:31:05,277 platform companies from being sued for 2826 02:31:05,360 --> 02:31:08,397 the user generated content. Um, and so 2827 02:31:08,480 --> 02:31:12,557 it it's actually Yes. And so there's actually there's actually a question I 2828 02:31:12,640 --> 02:31:15,357 think there's still a question which is can big can big American companies 2829 02:31:15,440 --> 02:31:19,277 actually feel generative AI at all or is the liability actually going to just 2830 02:31:19,360 --> 02:31:22,797 ultimately convince them that they can't do it because the minute the thing says 2831 02:31:22,880 --> 02:31:25,597 something bad and it doesn't even need to be hate speech. It could just be like 2832 02:31:25,680 --> 02:31:30,077 an inacc It could hallucinate a product, you know, detail on a vacuum cleaner, 2833 02:31:30,160 --> 02:31:32,877 you know, and all of a sudden the vacuum cleaner company sues for 2834 02:31:32,960 --> 02:31:36,157 misrepresentation and there's any symmetry there, right? Cuz the the the 2835 02:31:36,240 --> 02:31:38,957 LM is going to be producing billions of answers to questions and it only needs 2836 02:31:39,040 --> 02:31:41,677 to get a few wrong to >> So loss has to get updated really quick here. 2837 02:31:41,760 --> 02:31:44,957 >> Yeah. And nobody knows what to do with that, right? Um so so anyway, like there 2838 02:31:45,040 --> 02:31:47,757 there there are big there are big questions around how companies operate 2839 02:31:47,840 --> 02:31:51,197 at all. So we we talk about those, but then there's this other question of 2840 02:31:51,280 --> 02:31:53,997 like, okay, the open source, so what about open source? And and my answer to 2841 02:31:54,080 --> 02:31:58,077 your question is kind of like obviously yes the models have there has to be full 2842 02:31:58,160 --> 02:32:01,917 open source here because to live in a world in which that open source is not 2843 02:32:02,000 --> 02:32:05,037 allowed is a world of draconian speech 2844 02:32:05,120 --> 02:32:09,677 control human control machine control. I mean you know black helicopters with 2845 02:32:09,760 --> 02:32:14,157 jack booted thugs coming out repelling down and seizing your GPU like territory. 2846 02:32:14,240 --> 02:32:16,637 >> Well >> no no I'm 100% serious. 2847 02:32:16,720 --> 02:32:18,717 >> I that's you're saying slippery slope always leaves there. 2848 02:32:18,800 --> 02:32:21,917 >> No no no no no. That's what's required to enforce it. Like how will you enforce 2849 02:32:22,000 --> 02:32:25,757 a ban on open source? >> No, you could add friction to it like 2850 02:32:25,840 --> 02:32:28,877 harder to get the models cuz people will always be able to get the models but 2851 02:32:28,960 --> 02:32:30,557 it'll be more in the shadows, right? 2852 02:32:30,640 --> 02:32:34,237 >> The leading open source model right now is from the UAE. Like the next time they 2853 02:32:34,320 --> 02:32:37,677 do that, what do we do? >> Yeah. 2854 02:32:37,760 --> 02:32:42,797 >> Like, >> oh, I see you're like u >> the 14-year-old in Indonesia comes out 2855 02:32:42,880 --> 02:32:45,437 with a breakthrough. You know, we talked about most great software comes from a 2856 02:32:45,520 --> 02:32:47,997 small number of people. some kid comes out with some big new breakthrough in 2857 02:32:48,080 --> 02:32:51,197 quantization or something and has some huge breakthrough and like what we're 2858 02:32:51,280 --> 02:32:54,397 going to what are we going to like invade Indonesia and arrest him. 2859 02:32:54,480 --> 02:32:55,917 >> It seems like in terms of size of models 2860 02:32:56,000 --> 02:32:59,917 and effectiveness of models the big tech companies will probably lead the way for 2861 02:33:00,000 --> 02:33:01,757 quite a few years and and the question 2862 02:33:01,840 --> 02:33:04,877 is of what policies they should use. The 2863 02:33:04,960 --> 02:33:07,597 the kid the kid in Indonesia should not 2864 02:33:07,680 --> 02:33:12,477 be regulated but should Google Meta 2865 02:33:12,560 --> 02:33:17,837 uh Microsoft OpenAI be regulated? Well, so but this goes okay. So when does it 2866 02:33:17,920 --> 02:33:22,157 become dangerous? >> Yeah. >> Right. Is is the danger that it's quote 2867 02:33:22,240 --> 02:33:26,397 as powerful as the current leading commercial model or is it that it is it 2868 02:33:26,480 --> 02:33:28,397 is just at some other arbitrary threshold? 2869 02:33:28,480 --> 02:33:30,477 >> Yeah. >> And then by the way like look how do we 2870 02:33:30,560 --> 02:33:33,677 know like what we know today is that you need like a lot of money to like train 2871 02:33:33,760 --> 02:33:36,077 these things. But there are advances being made every week on training 2872 02:33:36,160 --> 02:33:39,117 efficiency and you know data all kinds of synthetic you know look I don't even 2873 02:33:39,200 --> 02:33:41,517 like the synthetic data thing we're talking about. Maybe some kid figures 2874 02:33:41,600 --> 02:33:42,877 out a way to autogenerate synthetic data. 2875 02:33:42,960 --> 02:33:43,997 >> That's going to change everything. 2876 02:33:44,080 --> 02:33:47,677 >> Yeah. Exactly. And so like sitting here today like the the the breakthrough just 2877 02:33:47,760 --> 02:33:50,477 happened, right? You made this point like the breakthrough just happened. 2878 02:33:50,560 --> 02:33:54,077 >> So we don't know what the shape of this technology is going to be. I mean the 2879 02:33:54,160 --> 02:33:58,477 the big shock the the big shock here is that you know whatever number of 2880 02:33:58,560 --> 02:34:01,597 billions of parameters basically represents at least a very big 2881 02:34:01,680 --> 02:34:05,597 percentage of human thought. >> Like who would have imagined that? And 2882 02:34:05,680 --> 02:34:06,957 then there's already work underway. 2883 02:34:07,040 --> 02:34:10,397 There was just this paper that just came out that basically takes a GPT3 scale 2884 02:34:10,480 --> 02:34:13,917 model and compresses it down to run on a single 32 core CPU. 2885 02:34:14,000 --> 02:34:15,997 >> Like who would have predicted that? 2886 02:34:16,080 --> 02:34:18,477 >> Yeah. >> Um you know some of these models now you 2887 02:34:18,560 --> 02:34:21,677 can run on Raspberry Pies. Like today they're very slow but like you know 2888 02:34:21,760 --> 02:34:25,437 maybe they'll be a you know real perform you know like 2889 02:34:25,520 --> 02:34:29,277 >> it's math and here we're back in here we're back dude. It's math and code. 2890 02:34:29,360 --> 02:34:31,997 It's math and code. It's math code and data. It's bits. 2891 02:34:32,080 --> 02:34:36,637 >> Mark's just like walked away [laughter] at this point. He's just screw it. I 2892 02:34:36,720 --> 02:34:40,317 don't know what to do with this. You guys created this whole internet thing. 2893 02:34:40,400 --> 02:34:44,397 Yeah. Yeah. I'm a huge believer in open source here. 2894 02:34:44,480 --> 02:34:47,197 >> So my argument is we're going to have to see here's my argument is my argument. 2895 02:34:47,280 --> 02:34:49,837 My full argument is AI is going to be like air. It's going to be everywhere. 2896 02:34:49,920 --> 02:34:52,157 Like it's this is just going to be in text. It already is. It's going to be in 2897 02:34:52,240 --> 02:34:54,157 textbooks and kids are going to grow up knowing how to do this and it's just 2898 02:34:54,240 --> 02:34:56,477 going to be a thing. It's going to be in the air and you can't like pull this 2899 02:34:56,560 --> 02:34:59,277 back anymore. You can pull back air. And so you just have to figure out how to 2900 02:34:59,360 --> 02:35:02,077 live in this world, right? Right. And then that that and then that's where I 2901 02:35:02,160 --> 02:35:04,797 think like all this hand ringing about AI risk is basically a complete waste of 2902 02:35:04,880 --> 02:35:08,157 time because the the the effort should go into okay what are what what is what 2903 02:35:08,240 --> 02:35:11,117 what is the defensive approach >> and so if you're worried about you know 2904 02:35:11,200 --> 02:35:13,997 AI generated pathogens the right thing to do is to have a permanent project 2905 02:35:14,080 --> 02:35:17,517 warp speed right funded lavishly let's let's do a Manhattan let's talk about 2906 02:35:17,600 --> 02:35:20,957 Manhattan project let's do a Manhattan project for biological defense right and 2907 02:35:21,040 --> 02:35:23,917 let's build AIS and let's have like broadspectctrum vaccines where like 2908 02:35:24,000 --> 02:35:26,077 we're insulated from every pathogen 2909 02:35:26,160 --> 02:35:28,957 >> right and what the interesting thing is 2910 02:35:29,040 --> 02:35:31,677 because it's software where a kid in his 2911 02:35:31,760 --> 02:35:34,957 basement teenager could build like a 2912 02:35:35,040 --> 02:35:36,237 system that defends against like the 2913 02:35:36,320 --> 02:35:39,357 worst the the worst I mean and to me 2914 02:35:39,440 --> 02:35:42,477 defense is super exciting. 2915 02:35:42,560 --> 02:35:47,277 >> It's to like I if you believe in the good of human nature that most people 2916 02:35:47,360 --> 02:35:51,357 want to do good to be the savior of humanity is really exciting. 2917 02:35:51,440 --> 02:35:54,637 >> Yes. [laughter] >> Not okay that's a dramatic statement but 2918 02:35:54,720 --> 02:35:57,277 like to help people. To help people 2919 02:35:57,360 --> 02:35:59,357 >> Yeah. Okay. What about just to jump 2920 02:35:59,440 --> 02:36:04,557 around, what about the risk of will AI lead to crippling inequality? 2921 02:36:04,640 --> 02:36:08,397 You know, because we're kind of saying everybody's life will become better. Is 2922 02:36:08,480 --> 02:36:10,477 it possible that the the rich get richer here? 2923 02:36:10,560 --> 02:36:13,757 >> Yeah. So, this go this actually ironically goes back to Marxism. So, um 2924 02:36:13,840 --> 02:36:16,477 because this was the C. So, the core claim of Marxism, right, basically was 2925 02:36:16,560 --> 02:36:19,037 that the owner the owners of capital would basically own the means of 2926 02:36:19,120 --> 02:36:22,077 production and then over time they would basically accumulate all the wealth. The 2927 02:36:22,160 --> 02:36:25,037 workers would be paying in, you know, and and getting nothing in return 2928 02:36:25,120 --> 02:36:26,317 because they wouldn't be needed anymore. 2929 02:36:26,400 --> 02:36:28,797 Right? Marx was very worried about me what he called mechanization or what 2930 02:36:28,880 --> 02:36:32,317 later became known as automation um and that you know the workers would be 2931 02:36:32,400 --> 02:36:35,437 emiserated and the the capitalist would end up with with with all and so this 2932 02:36:35,520 --> 02:36:38,397 was one of the core core core principles of Marxism of course it turned out to be 2933 02:36:38,480 --> 02:36:41,837 wrong about every previous wave of technology um the reason it it turned 2934 02:36:41,920 --> 02:36:45,197 out to be wrong about every previous wave of technology is that the way that 2935 02:36:45,280 --> 02:36:48,477 the self-interested owner of the machines makes the most money is by 2936 02:36:48,560 --> 02:36:52,957 providing the production capability in the form of products and services to the 2937 02:36:53,040 --> 02:36:57,037 most people the most customers as possible right the the largest, this is 2938 02:36:57,120 --> 02:36:59,597 one of those funny things where every CEO knows this intuitively and yet it's 2939 02:36:59,680 --> 02:37:01,277 like hard to explain from the outside. 2940 02:37:01,360 --> 02:37:04,077 The the way you make the most money in any business is by selling to the 2941 02:37:04,160 --> 02:37:05,837 largest market you can possibly get to. 2942 02:37:05,920 --> 02:37:09,437 The largest market you can possibly get to is everybody on the planet. And so 2943 02:37:09,520 --> 02:37:12,957 every large company does is everything that it can to drive down prices to be 2944 02:37:13,040 --> 02:37:15,917 able to get volumes up to be able to get to everybody on the planet. And that 2945 02:37:16,000 --> 02:37:18,317 happened with everything from electricity. It happened with 2946 02:37:18,400 --> 02:37:21,277 telephones. It happened with radio. It happened with automobiles. It happened 2947 02:37:21,360 --> 02:37:23,997 with smartphones. It happened with 2948 02:37:24,080 --> 02:37:26,637 PCs. Um it happened with the internet. 2949 02:37:26,720 --> 02:37:30,797 Um it happened with mobile broadband. Um it's happened by the way with Coca-Cola. 2950 02:37:30,880 --> 02:37:34,477 It's happened with like every, you know, basically every industrially produced, 2951 02:37:34,560 --> 02:37:36,877 you know, good or service. People want you want to drive it to the largest 2952 02:37:36,960 --> 02:37:40,477 possible market. And then as proof of that, it's already happened, right? 2953 02:37:40,560 --> 02:37:43,357 which is the early adopters of like Jad 2954 02:37:43,440 --> 02:37:47,597 GPT and Bing are not like, you know, Exxon and Boeing. They're, you know, 2955 02:37:47,680 --> 02:37:51,677 your uncle and your nephew, right? It's just like it's either freely available 2956 02:37:51,760 --> 02:37:54,557 online or it's available for 20 bucks a month or something. But the, you know, 2957 02:37:54,640 --> 02:37:58,157 these things went this this this technology went mass market immediately. 2958 02:37:58,240 --> 02:38:01,597 Um, and so look, the the the owners of the means of production, whoever does 2959 02:38:01,680 --> 02:38:03,677 this, you mentioned these trillion dollar questions, there are people who 2960 02:38:03,760 --> 02:38:06,637 are going to get really rich doing this, producing these things, but they're 2961 02:38:06,720 --> 02:38:08,957 going to get really rich by taking this technology to the broadest possible 2962 02:38:09,040 --> 02:38:13,997 market. So yes, they'll get rich, but they'll get rich having a huge positive 2963 02:38:14,080 --> 02:38:17,117 impact on >> Yeah. making the making the technology available to everybody. 2964 02:38:17,200 --> 02:38:18,717 >> Yeah. >> Right. And again, smartphones, same 2965 02:38:18,800 --> 02:38:22,717 thing. So, and there's this amazing kind of twist in um in business history, 2966 02:38:22,800 --> 02:38:26,797 which is you cannot spend $10,000 on a smartphone, right? You can't spend 2967 02:38:26,880 --> 02:38:29,517 $100,000. You can't spend a like I would buy the million dollar smartphone. Like 2968 02:38:29,600 --> 02:38:32,157 I'm signed up for it. Like if it's like suppose a million dollar smartphone was 2969 02:38:32,240 --> 02:38:35,357 like much better than the $1,000 smartphone. Like I'm there to buy it. It 2970 02:38:35,440 --> 02:38:37,197 doesn't exist. Why doesn't it exist? 2971 02:38:37,280 --> 02:38:40,397 Apple makes so much more money driving the price further down from $1,000 than 2972 02:38:40,480 --> 02:38:43,517 they would trying to harvest, right? And so it's it's just this repeating pattern 2973 02:38:43,600 --> 02:38:46,637 you see over and over again. Um where the and and and what's what's great 2974 02:38:46,720 --> 02:38:49,677 about it what's great about it is you you do not need to rely on anybody's 2975 02:38:49,760 --> 02:38:52,077 enlightened right generosity to do this. 2976 02:38:52,160 --> 02:38:55,517 You just need to rely on capitalist self-interest. 2977 02:38:55,600 --> 02:38:58,397 >> Uh what about AI taking our jobs? 2978 02:38:58,480 --> 02:39:00,157 >> Yeah, so very very similar thing here. 2979 02:39:00,240 --> 02:39:03,037 Um there's sort of a there's a core fallacy which again was was very common 2980 02:39:03,120 --> 02:39:06,397 in Marxism which is what's called the lump of labor fallacy. And this is sort 2981 02:39:06,480 --> 02:39:09,517 of the fallacy that there is a only a fixed amount of work to be done in the 2982 02:39:09,600 --> 02:39:13,117 world and if the and it's all being done today by people and then if machines do 2983 02:39:13,200 --> 02:39:16,957 it there's no other work to be done by people. Um and that's just a completely 2984 02:39:17,040 --> 02:39:20,797 backwards view on how the economy develops and grows. Um because what 2985 02:39:20,880 --> 02:39:25,037 happens is not in fact that what happens is the introduction of technology into 2986 02:39:25,120 --> 02:39:29,197 production process causes prices to fall. As prices fall, consumers have 2987 02:39:29,280 --> 02:39:32,557 more spending power. As consumers have more spending power, they create new 2988 02:39:32,640 --> 02:39:37,037 demand. That new demand then causes capital and labor to form into new 2989 02:39:37,120 --> 02:39:40,797 enterprises to satisfy new wants and needs and the result is more jobs and 2990 02:39:40,880 --> 02:39:43,997 higher wages. >> So new wants and needs the the worry is 2991 02:39:44,080 --> 02:39:45,757 that the the creation of new wants and 2992 02:39:45,840 --> 02:39:49,197 needs at a rapid rate will mean there's 2993 02:39:49,280 --> 02:39:53,757 a lot of turnover in jobs. So people will lose jobs. Just the actual 2994 02:39:53,840 --> 02:39:57,277 experience of losing a job and having to learn new things and new skills is 2995 02:39:57,360 --> 02:39:59,917 painful for the individuals. >> Well, two things. One is that new jobs 2996 02:40:00,000 --> 02:40:03,757 are often much better. Um, so this actually came up that there was this 2997 02:40:03,840 --> 02:40:05,917 panic about a decade ago and all the truck drivers are going to lose their 2998 02:40:06,000 --> 02:40:08,557 jobs, right? And number one, that didn't happen because we haven't figured out a 2999 02:40:08,640 --> 02:40:12,557 way to actually finish that yet. But >> but the other thing was like look, truck 3000 02:40:12,640 --> 02:40:15,437 driver like I grew up in a town that was basically consisted of a truck stop, 3001 02:40:15,520 --> 02:40:18,477 right? And I like knew a lot of truck drivers and like truck drivers live a 3002 02:40:18,560 --> 02:40:22,557 decade shorter than everybody else. Like they it's a it's a it's actually like a 3003 02:40:22,640 --> 02:40:25,197 very dangerous like they get like literally they have like high rates of 3004 02:40:25,280 --> 02:40:27,917 skin cancer and on the left side of their on the left side of their body 3005 02:40:28,000 --> 02:40:29,597 from from being in the sun all the time. 3006 02:40:29,680 --> 02:40:32,557 The vibration of being in the truck is actually very damaging to your to your 3007 02:40:32,640 --> 02:40:35,277 physiology. >> And there's actually uh perhaps 3008 02:40:35,360 --> 02:40:39,037 partially because of that reason uh there's a shortage >> Yeah. 3009 02:40:39,120 --> 02:40:42,077 >> of uh people who want to be truck drivers. 3010 02:40:42,160 --> 02:40:45,117 >> Yeah. Like it's not it's not like the question always you want to ask somebody 3011 02:40:45,200 --> 02:40:48,477 like that is do you want you know do you want your kid to be doing this job? And 3012 02:40:48,560 --> 02:40:51,437 like most of them will tell you no like I want my kid to be sitting in a cubicle 3013 02:40:51,520 --> 02:40:54,077 somewhere like where they don't have this like where they don't die 10 years 3014 02:40:54,160 --> 02:40:57,997 earlier. And so, so the new jobs, number one, the new jobs are often better, but 3015 02:40:58,080 --> 02:41:00,797 you don't get the new jobs until you go through the change. And then to your 3016 02:41:00,880 --> 02:41:03,837 point, the the training thing, you know, is always the issue is can can people 3017 02:41:03,920 --> 02:41:06,397 adapt? And again, here you need to imagine living in a world in which 3018 02:41:06,480 --> 02:41:10,237 everybody has the AI assistant capability, right, to be able to pick up 3019 02:41:10,320 --> 02:41:12,477 new skills much more quickly and be able to have some, you know, be able to have 3020 02:41:12,560 --> 02:41:14,077 a machine to work with to augment their skills. 3021 02:41:14,160 --> 02:41:17,117 >> It's still going to be painful, but that's the process of life. 3022 02:41:17,200 --> 02:41:19,357 >> It's painful for some people. I mean there's no look there's no question it's 3023 02:41:19,440 --> 02:41:22,877 painful for some people and there you know yes it's not again I'm not a 3024 02:41:22,960 --> 02:41:25,437 utopian on this and it's not like it's it's positive for everybody in the 3025 02:41:25,520 --> 02:41:29,757 moment but it has been overwhelmingly positive for 300 years I mean look the 3026 02:41:29,840 --> 02:41:32,797 concern here the concern the concern this concern has played out for for 3027 02:41:32,880 --> 02:41:36,157 literally centuries um and you know this is the sort of lite you know the story 3028 02:41:36,240 --> 02:41:41,037 of the leites um that you may remember there was a panic in the 2000s around 3029 02:41:41,120 --> 02:41:45,037 outsourcing was going to take all the jobs there was a panic in the 2010s that 3030 02:41:45,120 --> 02:41:47,037 robots were going to take all the jobs 3031 02:41:47,120 --> 02:41:51,437 Um in 2019 before co we had more jobs at 3032 02:41:51,520 --> 02:41:54,237 higher wages both in the country and in the world than at any point in human 3033 02:41:54,320 --> 02:41:57,597 history. >> And so the overwhelming evidence is that 3034 02:41:57,680 --> 02:42:02,317 the net gain here is like just like wildly positive and most most people 3035 02:42:02,400 --> 02:42:05,677 like overwhelmingly come out the other side being huge beneficiaries of this. 3036 02:42:05,760 --> 02:42:09,917 >> So you're right that the single greatest risk this is the risk you're most 3037 02:42:10,000 --> 02:42:14,397 convinced by. The single greatest risk of AI is that China wins global AI 3038 02:42:14,480 --> 02:42:18,237 dominance and we the United States and the West do not. 3039 02:42:18,320 --> 02:42:21,437 >> Can you elaborate? >> Yeah. So, this is the other thing which 3040 02:42:21,520 --> 02:42:25,037 is a lot of the sort of AI risk debates today sort of assume that we're the only 3041 02:42:25,120 --> 02:42:27,997 game in town, right? And so, we have the ability to kind of sit in the United 3042 02:42:28,080 --> 02:42:30,797 States and criticize ourselves and, you know, have our government like, you 3043 02:42:30,880 --> 02:42:33,197 know, beat up on our companies and we're figure out a way to restrict what our 3044 02:42:33,280 --> 02:42:35,517 companies can do and, you know, we're going to, you know, we're going to ban 3045 02:42:35,600 --> 02:42:38,477 this and ban that, restrict this and do that. And then there's this like other 3046 02:42:38,560 --> 02:42:41,517 like force out there that like doesn't believe we have any power over them 3047 02:42:41,600 --> 02:42:44,157 whatsoever. >> Uh, and they have no desire to sign up 3048 02:42:44,240 --> 02:42:47,117 for whatever rules we decide to put in place. Um, and they're going to do 3049 02:42:47,200 --> 02:42:50,957 whatever it is they're going to do and we have no control over it at all. And 3050 02:42:51,040 --> 02:42:52,797 it's China and specifically the Chinese 3051 02:42:52,880 --> 02:42:55,517 Communist Party. Um, and they have a 3052 02:42:55,600 --> 02:42:58,957 completely publicized open, you know, 3053 02:42:59,040 --> 02:43:03,037 plan for what they're going to do with AI. And it is not what we have in mind. 3054 02:43:03,120 --> 02:43:06,397 Um, and not only do they have that as a vision and a plan for their society, but 3055 02:43:06,480 --> 02:43:08,717 they also have it as a vision and plan for the rest of the world. 3056 02:43:08,800 --> 02:43:10,557 >> So, their plan is what? Surveillance. 3057 02:43:10,640 --> 02:43:14,797 >> Yeah, authoritarian control. So, authoritarian population control. Um, 3058 02:43:14,880 --> 02:43:18,557 you know, good good oldfashioned communist authoritarian control. Um, and 3059 02:43:18,640 --> 02:43:22,637 surveillance and enforcement. Um, and social credit scores and all the rest of 3060 02:43:22,720 --> 02:43:26,637 it. Um, and you are going to be monitored and metered within an inch of 3061 02:43:26,720 --> 02:43:30,077 everything all the time. Um, and it's, you know, it's basically the end of 3062 02:43:30,160 --> 02:43:31,677 human freedom. And that's their goal. 3063 02:43:31,760 --> 02:43:34,637 and you know they justify it on the basis of that's what leads to peace 3064 02:43:34,720 --> 02:43:37,837 >> and you're worried that the uh 3065 02:43:37,920 --> 02:43:42,797 regulating in the United States will will halt progress enough to where uh 3066 02:43:42,880 --> 02:43:44,957 the Chinese government would win that race. 3067 02:43:45,040 --> 02:43:47,997 >> So their plan Yeah. Yes. Yes. And the reason for that is they and again 3068 02:43:48,080 --> 02:43:50,557 they're very public on this. They they have their plan is to proliferate their 3069 02:43:50,640 --> 02:43:53,357 approach around the world. Um and they have this program called the digital 3070 02:43:53,440 --> 02:43:56,157 Silk Road, right, which is building on their their Silk Road investment 3071 02:43:56,240 --> 02:43:58,477 program. And they've got their they've been laying they've been laying 3072 02:43:58,560 --> 02:44:01,597 networking infrastructure all over the world with their 5G, right, work with 3073 02:44:01,680 --> 02:44:04,797 their company Huawei. And so they they've been laying all this fabric, 3074 02:44:04,880 --> 02:44:07,517 financial and technological fabric all over the world. And their plan is to 3075 02:44:07,600 --> 02:44:10,877 roll out their vision of AI on top of that and to have every other country be 3076 02:44:10,960 --> 02:44:15,197 running their version. And then if you're a country prone to, you know, 3077 02:44:15,280 --> 02:44:17,997 authoritarianism, you're going to find this to be an incredible way to become 3078 02:44:18,080 --> 02:44:21,117 more authoritarian. Uh [snorts] if you're a country, by the way, not prone 3079 02:44:21,200 --> 02:44:23,677 to authoritarianism, you're going to have the Chinese Communist Party running 3080 02:44:23,760 --> 02:44:27,357 your infrastructure and having back doors into it, [laughter] right? Which 3081 02:44:27,440 --> 02:44:30,717 is also not good. Um >> what's your sense of where they stand in 3082 02:44:30,800 --> 02:44:35,277 terms of the race towards uh super intelligence as compared to the United 3083 02:44:35,360 --> 02:44:37,117 States? >> Yeah. So good news is they're behind, 3084 02:44:37,200 --> 02:44:40,237 but bad news is they, you know, they let's just say they get access to 3085 02:44:40,320 --> 02:44:43,757 everything we do. Um, so they're probably a year behind at each point in 3086 02:44:43,840 --> 02:44:46,957 time, but they get, you know, downloads, I think, of basically all of our work on 3087 02:44:47,040 --> 02:44:51,357 a regular basis through a variety of means. Um, and they are, you know, at 3088 02:44:51,440 --> 02:44:53,677 least, we'll see they're at least putting out reports of very, they just 3089 02:44:53,760 --> 02:44:59,037 put out a report last week of a of a GPT2 3.5 analog. um they put out this 3090 02:44:59,120 --> 02:45:01,837 report. I forget what it's called, but um they put out this report of this LM 3091 02:45:01,920 --> 02:45:04,717 they did and they they you know the way when OpenAI you know puts out they they 3092 02:45:04,800 --> 02:45:08,877 they one of the ways they test you know GPT um is they they they run it through 3093 02:45:08,960 --> 02:45:12,477 standardized exams like the SAT right how you can kind of gauge how smart it 3094 02:45:12,560 --> 02:45:17,277 is. Uh, and so the Chinese report, they ran their LLM through, uh, the Chinese 3095 02:45:17,360 --> 02:45:21,837 equivalent of the SAT. Um, and it includes a section on Marxism, 3096 02:45:21,920 --> 02:45:25,117 >> um, and a section on I was say tongue and thought. And it turns out their AI 3097 02:45:25,200 --> 02:45:26,637 does very well on both of those topics. 3098 02:45:26,720 --> 02:45:30,397 >> Oh, >> right. [laughter] So like, 3099 02:45:30,480 --> 02:45:33,757 >> uh, this this alignment thing, >> communist AI, right? Like literal 3100 02:45:33,840 --> 02:45:38,397 communist AI, right? And so their vision is like that's the you know so you know 3101 02:45:38,480 --> 02:45:41,117 you can just imagine like you're a school you know you're a kid 10 years 3102 02:45:41,200 --> 02:45:44,477 from now in Argentina or in Germany or 3103 02:45:44,560 --> 02:45:49,197 in who knows where uh Indonesia and you ask the AI to explain to you like how 3104 02:45:49,280 --> 02:45:52,317 the economy works and it gives you the most cheery upbeat explanation of 3105 02:45:52,400 --> 02:45:56,637 Chinese style communism you've ever heard right so like the stakes here are 3106 02:45:56,720 --> 02:45:59,837 like really big >> well my as we've been talking about my 3107 02:45:59,920 --> 02:46:03,517 hope is not just with the United States but with just uh the kitten his basement 3108 02:46:03,600 --> 02:46:06,077 with open source or SLM cuz I I don't 3109 02:46:06,160 --> 02:46:09,517 know if I um trust large centralized 3110 02:46:09,600 --> 02:46:12,557 institutions with super powerful AI no 3111 02:46:12,640 --> 02:46:17,837 matter what their ideology >> cuz uh power corrupts. 3112 02:46:17,920 --> 02:46:19,517 You've been investing in tech companies 3113 02:46:19,600 --> 02:46:22,637 for about let's say 20 years and uh 3114 02:46:22,720 --> 02:46:25,357 about 15 of which was uh with Andre and 3115 02:46:25,440 --> 02:46:30,477 Horowitz. Uh what interesting trends in tech have you seen over that time? Let's 3116 02:46:30,560 --> 02:46:33,677 just talk about companies and just the evolution of the tech industry. 3117 02:46:33,760 --> 02:46:37,597 >> I mean the big shift over 20 years has been that tech used to be a tools 3118 02:46:37,680 --> 02:46:42,797 industry. Uh for basically from like 1940 through to about 2010 almost all 3119 02:46:42,880 --> 02:46:47,197 the big successful companies were pick and shovels companies. So PC, database, 3120 02:46:47,280 --> 02:46:50,557 smartphone, you know, some some some tool that somebody else would pick up 3121 02:46:50,640 --> 02:46:53,677 and use. Since 2010, most of the big 3122 02:46:53,760 --> 02:46:56,477 wins have been in applications. Um so a 3123 02:46:56,560 --> 02:47:00,797 company that starts a uh you know starts in an existing industry and goes 3124 02:47:00,880 --> 02:47:04,797 directly to the customer in that industry and you know the early examples 3125 02:47:04,880 --> 02:47:06,957 there were like Uber andyft and Airbnb. 3126 02:47:07,040 --> 02:47:11,997 Um and then that model is kind of elaborating out. Um uh the AI thing is 3127 02:47:12,080 --> 02:47:14,557 actually a reversion on that for now because like most of the AI business 3128 02:47:14,640 --> 02:47:18,397 right now is actually in cloud provision of of of AI APIs for other people to 3129 02:47:18,480 --> 02:47:21,037 build on. But >> but the big thing will probably be in app. 3130 02:47:21,120 --> 02:47:24,877 >> Yeah. I think I think most of the money I think probably will be in whatever. 3131 02:47:24,960 --> 02:47:29,197 Yeah, you're AI financial adviser or your AI doctor or your AI lawyer or you 3132 02:47:29,280 --> 02:47:32,317 know take your pick of whatever the domain is. Um and there and what's 3133 02:47:32,400 --> 02:47:36,157 interesting is you know we the valley kind of does everything. We we our 3134 02:47:36,240 --> 02:47:39,277 entrepreneurs kind of elaborate every possible idea. And so there will be a 3135 02:47:39,360 --> 02:47:42,957 set of companies that like make AI um something that can be purchased and used 3136 02:47:43,040 --> 02:47:45,997 by large law firms. Um and then there will be other companies that just go 3137 02:47:46,080 --> 02:47:49,197 direct to market as a as an AI lawyer. 3138 02:47:49,280 --> 02:47:52,317 What advice could you give for a startup 3139 02:47:52,400 --> 02:47:56,797 founder? Just having seen so many successful companies, so many companies 3140 02:47:56,880 --> 02:48:00,637 that fail also. What advice could you give to a startup founder, someone who 3141 02:48:00,720 --> 02:48:03,357 wants to build the next super successful 3142 02:48:03,440 --> 02:48:05,917 startup in the tech space, the Googles, 3143 02:48:06,000 --> 02:48:10,397 the Apples, the Twitters. >> Yeah. So, the great thing about the 3144 02:48:10,480 --> 02:48:14,317 really great founders is they don't take any advice. So, [laughter] 3145 02:48:14,400 --> 02:48:18,797 so if you find yourself listening to advice, maybe you shouldn't do it. Um 3146 02:48:18,880 --> 02:48:23,357 >> but that's actually just to elaborate on that if you could also speak to great 3147 02:48:23,440 --> 02:48:27,677 founders too like what what makes a great founder. So what makes a great 3148 02:48:27,760 --> 02:48:30,237 founder is super smart um coupled with 3149 02:48:30,320 --> 02:48:35,117 super energetic coupled with super courageous. I think it's some of it's 3150 02:48:35,200 --> 02:48:37,837 those three and >> intelligence, passion and courage. 3151 02:48:37,920 --> 02:48:41,357 >> The first two are traits and the third one is a choice. I think courage is a 3152 02:48:41,440 --> 02:48:43,037 choice. Well, because courage is a 3153 02:48:43,120 --> 02:48:46,957 question of pain, tolerance, right? Um 3154 02:48:47,040 --> 02:48:51,597 so um how how many times you're willing to get punched in the face before you quit? 3155 02:48:51,680 --> 02:48:54,877 >> Yeah. Um, and here's maybe the biggest thing people 3156 02:48:54,960 --> 02:48:57,917 don't understand about what it's like to be a startup founder is it gets it gets 3157 02:48:58,000 --> 02:49:00,797 very romanticized, right? Um, and even when it even when they fail, it still 3158 02:49:00,880 --> 02:49:04,477 gets romanticized about like what a great adventure it was. But like the 3159 02:49:04,560 --> 02:49:07,837 reality of it is most of what happens is people telling you no. And then they 3160 02:49:07,920 --> 02:49:09,517 usually follow that with you're stupid. 3161 02:49:09,600 --> 02:49:11,437 >> Yeah. >> Right. No, I will not come to work for 3162 02:49:11,520 --> 02:49:14,397 you. Um, I will not leave my cushy job at Google to come work for you. No, I'm 3163 02:49:14,480 --> 02:49:16,877 not going to buy your product. You know, no, I'm not going to run a story about 3164 02:49:16,960 --> 02:49:20,877 your company. No, I'm not this, that, the other thing. Um, and so a huge 3165 02:49:20,960 --> 02:49:23,677 amount of what people have to do is just get used to just getting punched. And 3166 02:49:23,760 --> 02:49:26,157 and and and the reason people don't understand this is because when you're a 3167 02:49:26,240 --> 02:49:28,797 founder, you cannot let on that this is happening because it will cause people 3168 02:49:28,880 --> 02:49:30,957 to think that you're weak and they'll lose faith in you. 3169 02:49:31,040 --> 02:49:32,477 >> Yeah. >> So you have to pretend that you're 3170 02:49:32,560 --> 02:49:37,197 having a great time when you're dying inside, right? [laughter] 3171 02:49:37,280 --> 02:49:39,997 >> Just in misery. >> But why why did they do it? 3172 02:49:40,080 --> 02:49:41,517 >> Why did they do Yeah, that's the thing. 3173 02:49:41,600 --> 02:49:44,317 It's it's like it is a level. This is actually one of the conclusions I think 3174 02:49:44,400 --> 02:49:47,517 is that I think it's actually for most of these people on a riskadjusted basis 3175 02:49:47,600 --> 02:49:49,277 that's probably an irrational act. 3176 02:49:49,360 --> 02:49:51,997 >> They could probably be more financially successful on average if they just got 3177 02:49:52,080 --> 02:49:55,757 like a real job in at a big company. Um but there's [snorts] you know some 3178 02:49:55,840 --> 02:49:59,117 people just have an irrational need to do something new and build something for 3179 02:49:59,200 --> 02:50:02,237 themselves. And you know some people just can't tolerate having bosses. Oh 3180 02:50:02,320 --> 02:50:04,797 here's a fun thing is how do you reference check founders? 3181 02:50:04,880 --> 02:50:06,157 >> Right? So you call, you know, normal way 3182 02:50:06,240 --> 02:50:09,837 you reference Jackie hiring somebody is you call the bosses and you know and you 3183 02:50:09,920 --> 02:50:12,397 find out if they were good employees and now you're trying to reference check 3184 02:50:12,480 --> 02:50:15,517 Steve Jobs, right? And it's like, oh god, he was terrible, you know, he was a 3185 02:50:15,600 --> 02:50:17,437 terrible employee. He never did what we told him to do. 3186 02:50:17,520 --> 02:50:21,837 >> Yeah. [laughter] >> So what's a good reference? 3187 02:50:21,920 --> 02:50:25,517 If you want the previous boss to actually say they're they never did what 3188 02:50:25,600 --> 02:50:27,437 you told them to do, that might be a good thing. 3189 02:50:27,520 --> 02:50:30,877 >> Well, ideally ideally what you want is I will go I I would like to go to work for 3190 02:50:30,960 --> 02:50:34,717 that person. um he worked for me here and now I'd like to work for him. Now 3191 02:50:34,800 --> 02:50:38,077 unfortunately most people can't their egos can't can't handle that so they 3192 02:50:38,160 --> 02:50:39,917 won't say that but that that that's the ideal. 3193 02:50:40,000 --> 02:50:43,437 >> What advice would you give to those folks in the space of intelligence, 3194 02:50:43,520 --> 02:50:48,317 passion and courage? So I think the other big thing is you see people 3195 02:50:48,400 --> 02:50:50,717 sometimes who say I want to start a company and then they kind of work 3196 02:50:50,800 --> 02:50:54,397 through the process of coming up with an idea and generally those don't work as 3197 02:50:54,480 --> 02:50:58,397 well as the case where somebody has the idea first and then they kind of realize 3198 02:50:58,480 --> 02:51:01,037 that there's an opportunity to build a company and then they just turn out to 3199 02:51:01,120 --> 02:51:02,637 be the right kind of person to do that. 3200 02:51:02,720 --> 02:51:07,197 When you say idea, do you mean >> long-term big vision or do you mean 3201 02:51:07,280 --> 02:51:11,757 specifics of like product? >> Spec I say specific like specifically 3202 02:51:11,840 --> 02:51:14,637 what yes specifics like what is the because for the first five years you 3203 02:51:14,720 --> 02:51:16,957 don't get to have vision. You just got to build something people want and you 3204 02:51:17,040 --> 02:51:19,997 got to figure out a way to sell it to them, right? It's very practical or you 3205 02:51:20,080 --> 02:51:22,877 never get to big vision. So >> So the first the first pro you you have 3206 02:51:22,960 --> 02:51:26,317 an idea of set of products or the first product that can actually make some money. 3207 02:51:26,400 --> 02:51:28,877 >> Yeah. Like it's got to the first product's got to work. By which I mean 3208 02:51:28,960 --> 02:51:32,157 like it has to technically work but then it has to actually fit into the category 3209 02:51:32,240 --> 02:51:34,637 in the customer's mind of something that they want and then and then by the way 3210 02:51:34,720 --> 02:51:36,877 the other part is they have to willing to pay for it. Like somebody's got to 3211 02:51:36,960 --> 02:51:39,837 pay the bills and so you got to figure out how to price it and whether you can 3212 02:51:39,920 --> 02:51:41,437 actually extract the money. >> Yeah. 3213 02:51:41,520 --> 02:51:46,317 >> So usually it is much more predictable. 3214 02:51:46,400 --> 02:51:49,117 Success is never predictable but it's more predictable if you start with a 3215 02:51:49,200 --> 02:51:52,957 great idea and then back into starting the company. Um so this is what we did. 3216 02:51:53,040 --> 02:51:55,597 You know we had Mosaic before we had Netscape. the Google guys had the Google 3217 02:51:55,680 --> 02:51:59,757 search engine working at Stanford. Um, right. Um, the um, uh, you know, yeah, 3218 02:51:59,840 --> 02:52:03,037 actually there's tons of examples where they, you know, Pierre Omdar had eBay 3219 02:52:03,120 --> 02:52:05,037 working before he left his previous job. 3220 02:52:05,120 --> 02:52:08,557 >> So, I really love that idea of just having a thing, a prototype that 3221 02:52:08,640 --> 02:52:11,757 actually works before you even begin to remotely scale. 3222 02:52:11,840 --> 02:52:14,717 >> Yeah. By the way, it's also far easier to raise money, right? Like the the 3223 02:52:14,800 --> 02:52:17,517 ideal pitch that we receive is here's a thing that works. Would you like to 3224 02:52:17,600 --> 02:52:21,277 invest in our company or not? Like that's so much easier than here's 30 slides 3225 02:52:21,360 --> 02:52:25,117 >> with a dream, right? [clears throat] Um and then we have this concept called the 3226 02:52:25,200 --> 02:52:28,717 idea maze which our biology friend of Boston came up with um when he was with 3227 02:52:28,800 --> 02:52:33,517 us. Um so so so then there's this thing this goes to mythology which is um you 3228 02:52:33,600 --> 02:52:36,717 know there's a mythology that kind of you know these these ideas um you know 3229 02:52:36,800 --> 02:52:39,437 kind of arrive like magic or people kind of stumble into them. It's like eBay 3230 02:52:39,520 --> 02:52:41,357 with the pest dispensers or something. 3231 02:52:41,440 --> 02:52:44,077 Um the reality usually with the big 3232 02:52:44,160 --> 02:52:48,397 successes is that the founder has been chewing on the problem for five or 10 3233 02:52:48,480 --> 02:52:53,117 years before they start the company and they often worked on it in school. 3234 02:52:53,200 --> 02:52:57,037 >> Um or they even experimented on it when they were a kid um and they've been kind 3235 02:52:57,120 --> 02:53:00,157 of training up over that period of time to be able to do the thing. So they're 3236 02:53:00,240 --> 02:53:04,477 like a true domain expert and and and it sort of sounds like mom and apple pie 3237 02:53:04,560 --> 02:53:06,477 which is yeah you want to be a domain expert in what you're doing but you 3238 02:53:06,560 --> 02:53:09,837 would you know the mythology is so strong of like oh I just like had this 3239 02:53:09,920 --> 02:53:11,597 idea in the shower and now I'm doing it like 3240 02:53:11,680 --> 02:53:16,237 >> it's generally not that. No, because well maybe in the shower we had the 3241 02:53:16,320 --> 02:53:21,197 exact product implementation details, but 3242 02:53:21,280 --> 02:53:22,637 yeah, usually you're going to be for 3243 02:53:22,720 --> 02:53:26,877 like years if not decades thinking about 3244 02:53:26,960 --> 02:53:31,597 like everything around that. >> Well, we call it the idea maze because 3245 02:53:31,680 --> 02:53:35,117 the the idea maze basically is like there's all these permutations like for 3246 02:53:35,200 --> 02:53:37,917 any ide for any idea there's like all these different permutations. Who should 3247 02:53:38,000 --> 02:53:40,557 the customer be? What shape form should the product have and how should we take 3248 02:53:40,640 --> 02:53:45,597 it to market and all these things. Um and so um the really smart founders have 3249 02:53:45,680 --> 02:53:48,877 thought through all these scenarios by the time they go out to raise money. Um 3250 02:53:48,960 --> 02:53:52,717 and they have like detailed answers um on every one of those fronts because 3251 02:53:52,800 --> 02:53:54,397 they put so much thought into it. 3252 02:53:54,480 --> 02:53:58,637 >> Um the sort of the the the sort of more haphazard founders haven't thought about 3253 02:53:58,720 --> 02:54:01,757 any any of that and it's the detailed ones who tend to do much better. So 3254 02:54:01,840 --> 02:54:06,557 >> how do you know when to take a leap if you have a cushy job or happy life? 3255 02:54:06,640 --> 02:54:09,837 >> I mean the best reason is just cuz you can't tolerate not doing it, right? Like 3256 02:54:09,920 --> 02:54:12,077 this is the kind of thing where if you have to be advised into doing it, you 3257 02:54:12,160 --> 02:54:15,597 probably shouldn't do it. Um, and so it's probably the opposite, which is you 3258 02:54:15,680 --> 02:54:18,797 just have such a burning sense of this has to be done. I have to do this. I 3259 02:54:18,880 --> 02:54:21,677 have no choice. >> What if it's going to lead to a lot of pain? 3260 02:54:21,760 --> 02:54:23,007 >> It's going to lead to a lot of pain. 3261 02:54:23,090 --> 02:54:24,637 [laughter] I think that's 3262 02:54:24,720 --> 02:54:26,797 >> what if it means uh losing sort of 3263 02:54:26,880 --> 02:54:32,077 social relationships and damaging your um relationship with loved ones and all 3264 02:54:32,160 --> 02:54:34,637 that kind of stuff. >> Yeah. Look, so like it's going to put 3265 02:54:34,720 --> 02:54:36,237 you in a social tunnel for sure, right? 3266 02:54:36,320 --> 02:54:39,757 So you're going to like I you know there's this game you can play on 3267 02:54:39,840 --> 02:54:43,357 Twitter which is you can do any whiff of the idea that there's uh basically any 3268 02:54:43,440 --> 02:54:46,477 such thing as work life balance and that people should actually work hard and 3269 02:54:46,560 --> 02:54:49,197 everybody gets mad. But like the truth is like all the successful founders are 3270 02:54:49,280 --> 02:54:53,037 working 80our weeks and they're working you know they form very very strong 3271 02:54:53,120 --> 02:54:55,517 social bonds with the people they work with. They tend to lose a lot of friends 3272 02:54:55,600 --> 02:54:58,637 on the outside or put those friendships on ice. Like that's just the nature of 3273 02:54:58,720 --> 02:55:02,797 the of the thing. Um you know for most people that's worth the trade-off. you 3274 02:55:02,880 --> 02:55:05,197 know, the advantage, you know, maybe younger founders have is maybe they have 3275 02:55:05,280 --> 02:55:07,277 less, you know, maybe they're not, you know, for example, if they're not 3276 02:55:07,360 --> 02:55:10,157 married yet or don't have kids yet, that's an easier thing to bite off. 3277 02:55:10,240 --> 02:55:11,437 >> Can you be an older founder? 3278 02:55:11,520 --> 02:55:14,477 >> Yeah, you definitely can. Yeah. Um, yeah, many of the most successful 3279 02:55:14,560 --> 02:55:17,197 founders are second, third, fourth time founders. They're in their 30s, 40s, 3280 02:55:17,280 --> 02:55:21,117 50s. Um, the good news with being an older founder is you know more and you 3281 02:55:21,200 --> 02:55:23,837 you know a lot more about what to do, which is very helpful. The problem is, 3282 02:55:23,920 --> 02:55:27,437 okay, now you've got like a spouse and a family and kids and like you've got to 3283 02:55:27,520 --> 02:55:31,677 go to the baseball game and like you can't go to the baseball, you know, and so it's 3284 02:55:31,760 --> 02:55:33,917 >> life is full of difficult choices. Yes. 3285 02:55:34,000 --> 02:55:37,437 And uh >> you've written a blog post on what 3286 02:55:37,520 --> 02:55:39,357 you've been up to. Uh you wrote this in 3287 02:55:39,440 --> 02:55:43,037 October 2022. Uh quote, mostly I try to 3288 02:55:43,120 --> 02:55:48,157 learn a lot. For example, the political events of 2014 to 2016 made clear to me 3289 02:55:48,240 --> 02:55:49,837 that I didn't understand politics at 3290 02:55:49,920 --> 02:55:52,637 all. referencing maybe some of this this 3291 02:55:52,720 --> 02:55:55,277 book here. Um, so I deliberately 3292 02:55:55,360 --> 02:55:56,957 withdrew from political engagement and 3293 02:55:57,040 --> 02:55:59,677 fundraising and instead read my way back 3294 02:55:59,760 --> 02:56:02,717 into history and as far to the political 3295 02:56:02,800 --> 02:56:07,117 left and political right as I could. So just high level question, what's your 3296 02:56:07,200 --> 02:56:09,037 approach to learning? 3297 02:56:09,120 --> 02:56:10,957 >> Yeah. So it's basically I would say it's 3298 02:56:11,040 --> 02:56:14,157 it's autodidact. Um, uh, so it's sort of 3299 02:56:14,240 --> 02:56:16,157 goes it's going down the rabbit holes. 3300 02:56:16,240 --> 02:56:19,597 Um, so it's a combination. So I kind of allude to it in that in that quote. It's 3301 02:56:19,680 --> 02:56:21,517 a combination of breadth and depth. 3302 02:56:21,600 --> 02:56:25,357 >> Um, and so I tend to Yeah, I tend to I I go broad by the nature of what I do. I 3303 02:56:25,440 --> 02:56:27,917 go broad, but then I tend to go deep in a rabbit hole for a while, read 3304 02:56:28,000 --> 02:56:30,797 everything I can and then come out of it and I might I might not revisit that 3305 02:56:30,880 --> 02:56:32,717 rabbit hole for, you know, another decade. 3306 02:56:32,800 --> 02:56:37,277 >> And in that blog post that I recommend people go check out, you actually list a 3307 02:56:37,360 --> 02:56:40,717 bunch of different books that you recommend on different topics on the 3308 02:56:40,800 --> 02:56:43,037 American left and the American right. 3309 02:56:43,120 --> 02:56:46,797 Uh, it's just a lot of really good stuff. The best explanation for the 3310 02:56:46,880 --> 02:56:49,917 current structure of our society and politics. You give two recommendations. 3311 02:56:50,000 --> 02:56:53,517 Four books on the Spanish Civil War. Six books on deep history of the American 3312 02:56:53,600 --> 02:56:56,157 right. Comprehensive biocracy of Adolf 3313 02:56:56,240 --> 02:57:01,197 Hitler. U one of which I read can recommend. Uh six books on the deep 3314 02:57:01,280 --> 02:57:04,397 history of the American left. So American right, American left, looking 3315 02:57:04,480 --> 02:57:06,637 at the history to give you the context. 3316 02:57:06,720 --> 02:57:10,317 Um biography of uh Vlad Lennon, two of 3317 02:57:10,400 --> 02:57:13,837 them uh on the French Revolution. I actually have never read a biography on 3318 02:57:13,920 --> 02:57:16,317 Lenin. Maybe that that would be useful. 3319 02:57:16,400 --> 02:57:18,477 Everything's been so Marx focused. 3320 02:57:18,560 --> 02:57:21,197 >> The Sebastian biography of Lenin is extraordinary. 3321 02:57:21,280 --> 02:57:23,677 >> Uh Victor Sebastian would blow your mind. Yeah. 3322 02:57:23,760 --> 02:57:24,877 >> So it's still useful to read. 3323 02:57:24,960 --> 02:57:25,917 >> It's incredible. Yeah. It's incredible. 3324 02:57:26,000 --> 02:57:28,557 I actually think it's the single best book on the Soviet Union. 3325 02:57:28,640 --> 02:57:32,077 >> So that the perspective of Lenin is might be the best way to look at the 3326 02:57:32,160 --> 02:57:34,157 Soviet Union versus Stalin versus Marx 3327 02:57:34,240 --> 02:57:36,797 versus Very interesting. So two books on 3328 02:57:36,880 --> 02:57:39,597 fascism and anti-fascism 3329 02:57:39,680 --> 02:57:42,797 uh by the same uh author Paul Gotthrey. 3330 02:57:42,880 --> 02:57:46,477 Uh brilliant book on the nature of mass movements and collective psychology. The 3331 02:57:46,560 --> 02:57:50,797 definitive work on intellectual life under totalitarianism, the captive mind. 3332 02:57:50,880 --> 02:57:54,957 Uh the definitive work on the practical life under totalitarianism. Uh there's a 3333 02:57:55,040 --> 02:57:59,197 bunch there's a bunch. And the single best book first of all the list here is 3334 02:57:59,280 --> 02:58:01,677 just incredible. But you say the single 3335 02:58:01,760 --> 02:58:04,237 best book I have found on who we are and 3336 02:58:04,320 --> 02:58:06,557 how we got here is the ancient city uh 3337 02:58:06,640 --> 02:58:10,957 by Numad Dennis Fell Kulangis. 3338 02:58:11,040 --> 02:58:15,277 I like it. uh what's uh what did you learn about who we are as a human 3339 02:58:15,360 --> 02:58:18,077 civilization from that book? >> Yeah, so this is a fascinating book. 3340 02:58:18,160 --> 02:58:19,437 This one's free. It's a free by the way. 3341 02:58:19,520 --> 02:58:22,797 It's it's a book from the 1860s. You can download it or you can buy print outs of 3342 02:58:22,880 --> 02:58:26,797 prints of it. But um it's uh it was this guy who was a professor at the Sarbon in 3343 02:58:26,880 --> 02:58:29,037 the 1860s. And he was apparently a 3344 02:58:29,120 --> 02:58:31,917 savant on uh antiquity on on Greek and 3345 02:58:32,000 --> 02:58:36,397 Roman antiquity. Um and and the reason I say that is because his sources are 100% 3346 02:58:36,480 --> 02:58:40,717 original Greek and Roman sources. So he wrote a basically a history of western 3347 02:58:40,800 --> 02:58:44,477 civilization from on the order of 4,000 years ago to basically the present times 3348 02:58:44,560 --> 02:58:47,037 entirely working on original Greek and 3349 02:58:47,120 --> 02:58:51,917 and Roman Roman sources. Um and what he was specifically trying to do was he was 3350 02:58:52,000 --> 02:58:54,557 trying to reconstruct from the stories of the Greeks and the Romans. He was 3351 02:58:54,640 --> 02:58:57,597 trying to reconstruct what life in the west was like before the Greeks and the 3352 02:58:57,680 --> 02:59:00,797 Romans which was in this in this in the civilization known as the the 3353 02:59:00,880 --> 02:59:04,397 Indo-Europeans. Um, and the short answer 3354 02:59:04,480 --> 02:59:09,437 is, and this is sort of circa 4,000, you know, 2,000 BC to, you know, sort of 500 3355 02:59:09,520 --> 02:59:13,037 BC, kind of that 1500 year stretch where civilization developed. Uh, and his 3356 02:59:13,120 --> 02:59:15,997 conclusion was basically cults. Um, they 3357 02:59:16,080 --> 02:59:20,397 were basically cults. And civilization was or organized into cults and the the 3358 02:59:20,480 --> 02:59:24,477 intensity of the cults was like a millionfold beyond anything that we 3359 02:59:24,560 --> 02:59:26,157 would recognize today. like it was a 3360 02:59:26,240 --> 02:59:29,277 level of um all-encompassing 3361 02:59:29,360 --> 02:59:33,197 belief and uh an action around religion 3362 02:59:33,280 --> 02:59:36,717 um that was at a level of extremistness that we we wouldn't even recognize it. 3363 02:59:36,800 --> 02:59:41,517 Um uh and and so specifically he tells the story of basically there were three 3364 02:59:41,600 --> 02:59:44,957 levels of cults. There was the family cult, the tribal cult, and then the city 3365 02:59:45,040 --> 02:59:48,397 cult as as society scaled up. And then 3366 02:59:48,480 --> 02:59:51,677 each cult was a joint cult of uh family 3367 02:59:51,760 --> 02:59:53,917 gods which were ancestor gods and then 3368 02:59:54,000 --> 02:59:59,277 nature gods. Um and then your bonding into a family, a tribe or a city was 3369 02:59:59,360 --> 03:00:01,517 based on your adherence to that religion. 3370 03:00:01,600 --> 03:00:06,077 >> Um people uh who were not of your family, tribe, city worship different 3371 03:00:06,160 --> 03:00:11,477 gods which gave you not just the right but the responsibility to kill them on site. 3372 03:00:11,560 --> 03:00:14,557 [laughter] >> Right. >> So they were serious about their cults 3373 03:00:14,640 --> 03:00:18,157 >> hardcore. By the way, shocking development. I did not realize there's 3374 03:00:18,240 --> 03:00:21,757 zero concept of individual rights. Like even even up through the Greeks and even 3375 03:00:21,840 --> 03:00:24,477 in the Romans, they didn't have have the concept of individual rights. Like the 3376 03:00:24,560 --> 03:00:27,997 idea that as an individual you have like some right it's just like nope, right? 3377 03:00:28,080 --> 03:00:30,637 And you look back and you're just like wow that's just like crazily like 3378 03:00:30,720 --> 03:00:33,677 fascist in a degree that we wouldn't recognize today. But it's like well they 3379 03:00:33,760 --> 03:00:37,837 were living under extreme pressure for survival and you and you know the theory 3380 03:00:37,920 --> 03:00:40,157 goes you could not have people running around making claims to individual 3381 03:00:40,240 --> 03:00:42,237 rights when you're just trying to get like your tribe through the winter, 3382 03:00:42,320 --> 03:00:46,077 right? Like you need like hardcore command and control. And so and and and 3383 03:00:46,160 --> 03:00:48,557 actually what what if through a modern political lens those cults were 3384 03:00:48,640 --> 03:00:52,157 basically both fascist and communist um they were fascist in terms of social 3385 03:00:52,240 --> 03:00:55,357 control and then they were communist in terms of economics. 3386 03:00:55,440 --> 03:00:57,437 [clears throat] >> But you think that's fundamentally that 3387 03:00:57,520 --> 03:01:01,277 like pull towards uh cults is within us. 3388 03:01:01,360 --> 03:01:04,237 >> Well so so my conclusion from this book 3389 03:01:04,320 --> 03:01:08,797 so so so the way we naturally think about the world we live in today is like 3390 03:01:08,880 --> 03:01:11,997 we basically have such an improved version of everything that came before 3391 03:01:12,080 --> 03:01:14,797 us, right? like we we we have basically we've figured out all these things 3392 03:01:14,880 --> 03:01:17,517 around morality and ethics and democracy and all these things and like they were 3393 03:01:17,600 --> 03:01:20,717 basically stupid and retrograde and we're like smart and sophisticated and 3394 03:01:20,800 --> 03:01:24,717 we've improved all this. Um I I after reading that book uh I I now believe in 3395 03:01:24,800 --> 03:01:27,837 many ways the opposite which is no actually we are still running in that 3396 03:01:27,920 --> 03:01:32,237 original model. We're just running in an incredibly diluted version of it. So 3397 03:01:32,320 --> 03:01:34,237 we're still running basically in cults. 3398 03:01:34,320 --> 03:01:37,037 It's just our cults are at like a thousandth or a millionth the level of 3399 03:01:37,120 --> 03:01:41,437 intensity. Right? And so our so just to take religions you know the modern 3400 03:01:41,520 --> 03:01:45,357 experience of a Christian in our time even somebody who considers him a devout 3401 03:01:45,440 --> 03:01:48,717 Christian is just a shadow of the level of intensity of somebody who belonged to 3402 03:01:48,800 --> 03:01:52,717 a religion back in that period >> and then by the way we have con it goes 3403 03:01:52,800 --> 03:01:57,037 back to our AI discussion we we we we then sort of endlessly create new cults 3404 03:01:57,120 --> 03:01:59,277 like we're trying to fill the void right 3405 03:01:59,360 --> 03:02:04,237 and the void is a void of of bonding okay living in their era like everybody 3406 03:02:04,320 --> 03:02:06,797 living today transported in that era would view it as just completely 3407 03:02:06,880 --> 03:02:09,757 intolerable in terms like the the loss of freedom and the level of basically 3408 03:02:09,840 --> 03:02:13,437 fascist control. However, every single person in that era, and he really 3409 03:02:13,520 --> 03:02:15,757 stresses this, they knew exactly where they stood. 3410 03:02:15,840 --> 03:02:17,277 >> They knew exactly where they belonged. 3411 03:02:17,360 --> 03:02:19,757 They knew exactly what their purpose was. They knew exactly what they needed 3412 03:02:19,840 --> 03:02:22,237 to do every day. They knew exactly why they were doing it. They had total 3413 03:02:22,320 --> 03:02:24,077 certainty about their place in the universe. 3414 03:02:24,160 --> 03:02:27,357 >> So, the question of meaning and the question of purpose was very distinctly 3415 03:02:27,440 --> 03:02:30,877 clearly defined for them. >> Absolutely. Overwhelmingly, 3416 03:02:30,960 --> 03:02:35,517 undisputably, undeniably. As we turn the volume down on the cultism, 3417 03:02:35,600 --> 03:02:39,437 >> yes, >> we start to uh the search for meaning starts getting harder and harder. 3418 03:02:39,520 --> 03:02:42,477 >> Yes. Because we we don't have that. We are we are ungrounded. We are we we are 3419 03:02:42,560 --> 03:02:44,237 unentered and and we all feel it, right? 3420 03:02:44,320 --> 03:02:47,677 And that's why we reach for, you know, it's why we still reach for religion. 3421 03:02:47,760 --> 03:02:50,797 It's why we reach for, you know, we people start to take on, you know, let's 3422 03:02:50,880 --> 03:02:53,997 say, you know, a faith in science maybe beyond where they should put it. Uh, you 3423 03:02:54,080 --> 03:02:56,557 know, and by the way, like sports teams are like a, you know, they're like a 3424 03:02:56,640 --> 03:02:59,837 tiny little version of a cult. And, you know, you know, Apple keynotes are a 3425 03:02:59,920 --> 03:03:02,477 tiny little version of a cult, right? 3426 03:03:02,560 --> 03:03:04,477 and you know political you know >> yeah [snorts] 3427 03:03:04,560 --> 03:03:06,557 >> and there's cult you know there's full-blown cults on both sides of the 3428 03:03:06,640 --> 03:03:09,357 political spectrum right now right um you know operating in plain sight 3429 03:03:09,440 --> 03:03:11,757 >> but still not full-blown compared as to what it was 3430 03:03:11,840 --> 03:03:14,717 >> compared to what it used to I mean we would today consider full-blown but like 3431 03:03:14,800 --> 03:03:17,437 yes they're they're at like I don't know a 100 thousandth or something of the 3432 03:03:17,520 --> 03:03:21,197 intensity of of what people had back then so so we live in a world today that 3433 03:03:21,280 --> 03:03:23,917 in many ways is more advanced and moral and so forth and it's certainly a lot 3434 03:03:24,000 --> 03:03:27,277 nicer much nicer world to live in but we live in a world that's like very washed 3435 03:03:27,360 --> 03:03:31,597 out it's like everything has become very colorless and gray as compared to how 3436 03:03:31,680 --> 03:03:34,637 people used to experience things, which is I think why we're so prone to reach 3437 03:03:34,720 --> 03:03:38,237 for drama. We we there's something in us 3438 03:03:38,320 --> 03:03:43,037 deeply evolved where we want that back >> and I wonder where it's all headed 3439 03:03:43,120 --> 03:03:46,557 >> as we turn the volume down more and more. Uh what advice would you give to 3440 03:03:46,640 --> 03:03:50,717 young folks today [snorts] uh in high school and college, how to be successful 3441 03:03:50,800 --> 03:03:53,037 in their career, how to be successful in their life? 3442 03:03:53,120 --> 03:03:58,077 >> Yes. So the tools that are available today, I mean, are just like I 3443 03:03:58,160 --> 03:04:01,037 sometimes, you know, bore I sometimes bore uh, you know, kids by describing 3444 03:04:01,120 --> 03:04:03,677 like what it was like to go look up a book, you know, to try to like discover 3445 03:04:03,760 --> 03:04:07,117 a fact in, you know, in in the old days, the 1970s, 1980s and go to the library 3446 03:04:07,200 --> 03:04:09,597 and the card catalog and the whole thing. you go through all that work and 3447 03:04:09,680 --> 03:04:13,197 then the book is checked out and you have to wait two weeks and like like to 3448 03:04:13,280 --> 03:04:16,637 be in a world not only where you can get the answer to any question but also the 3449 03:04:16,720 --> 03:04:19,437 world now you know the AI world where you've got like the assistant that will 3450 03:04:19,520 --> 03:04:22,477 help you do anything help you teach learn anything like your ability both to 3451 03:04:22,560 --> 03:04:26,397 learn and also to produce is just like I don't know a millionfold beyond what it 3452 03:04:26,480 --> 03:04:30,237 used to be I have a I have a blog post I've been wanting to write um which I 3453 03:04:30,320 --> 03:04:32,477 call where where are the hyperproductive 3454 03:04:32,560 --> 03:04:37,997 people um like good question >> right like with these tools like there 3455 03:04:38,080 --> 03:04:40,557 should be authors that are writing like hundreds or thousands of like 3456 03:04:40,640 --> 03:04:43,437 outstanding books. >> Well, with the authors, there's a 3457 03:04:43,520 --> 03:04:47,837 consumption question, too. But yeah, well, maybe not. Maybe not. You're 3458 03:04:47,920 --> 03:04:51,677 right. But so the tools are much more powerful, getting much more 3459 03:04:51,760 --> 03:04:55,517 >> artist musicians, right? Why aren't musicians producing a thousand times the 3460 03:04:55,600 --> 03:04:58,157 number of songs, right? Um like the 3461 03:04:58,240 --> 03:04:59,997 tools are spectacular. 3462 03:05:00,080 --> 03:05:02,637 >> So what uh what's the explanation? And 3463 03:05:02,720 --> 03:05:08,077 by way of advice, like mo is motivation starting to be turned down a little bit 3464 03:05:08,160 --> 03:05:10,397 or what? >> I think it might be distraction. 3465 03:05:10,480 --> 03:05:12,637 >> Distraction. >> It's it's so easy to just sit and 3466 03:05:12,720 --> 03:05:17,117 consume um that I think people get distracted from production. But if you 3467 03:05:17,200 --> 03:05:19,997 wanted to um you know, as a young person, if you wanted to really stand 3468 03:05:20,080 --> 03:05:24,957 out, you could get on a like a a hyper productivity curve very early on. 3469 03:05:25,040 --> 03:05:27,437 There's a great uh you know the story there's a great story in Roman history 3470 03:05:27,520 --> 03:05:31,677 of Plenty the Elder who was this legendary statesman um died in the 3471 03:05:31,760 --> 03:05:35,117 Vuvius eruption trying to rescue his friends but um he was famous both for 3472 03:05:35,200 --> 03:05:38,557 being a a savant basically being a polymath but also being an author and he 3473 03:05:38,640 --> 03:05:41,117 wrote apparently like hundreds of books most of which have been lost but he like 3474 03:05:41,200 --> 03:05:44,477 wrote all these encyclopedias and [snorts] he literally like would be 3475 03:05:44,560 --> 03:05:47,597 reading and writing all day long no matter what else was going on and he so 3476 03:05:47,680 --> 03:05:50,237 he would like travel with like four slaves and two of them were responsible 3477 03:05:50,320 --> 03:05:54,157 for reading to him and two of them were responsible for taking dictation and So 3478 03:05:54,240 --> 03:05:57,037 like he'd be going cross country and like literally he would be writing books 3479 03:05:57,120 --> 03:06:00,157 like all the time and apparently they were spectacular. There's only a few 3480 03:06:00,240 --> 03:06:01,837 that have survived but apparently they were amazing. 3481 03:06:01,920 --> 03:06:05,277 >> So there's a lot of value to being somebody who finds focus in this life. 3482 03:06:05,360 --> 03:06:08,157 >> Yeah. Like when and there are examples like there are uh you know there's this 3483 03:06:08,240 --> 03:06:12,157 guy uh judge what's his name? Posner Pner um who wrote like 40 books and was 3484 03:06:12,240 --> 03:06:16,157 also a great federal judge. Um you know there's our friend Bali I think is like 3485 03:06:16,240 --> 03:06:19,597 this. He's one of these you know where he's his output is just prodigious. Um 3486 03:06:19,680 --> 03:06:23,357 and so it's like yeah I mean with these tools why not? And I kind of think we're 3487 03:06:23,440 --> 03:06:26,157 we're at this interesting kind of freeze frame moment where like this these tools 3488 03:06:26,240 --> 03:06:28,157 are now in everybody's hands and everybody's just kind of staring at them 3489 03:06:28,240 --> 03:06:30,237 trying to figure out what to do. The new tools. 3490 03:06:30,320 --> 03:06:32,157 >> We have discovered fire. >> Yeah. 3491 03:06:32,240 --> 03:06:34,317 >> And trying to figure out how to use it to cook. 3492 03:06:34,400 --> 03:06:38,157 >> Yeah. Right. >> Uh you told Tim Ferrris that the perfect 3493 03:06:38,240 --> 03:06:43,277 day is caffeine for 10 hours and alcohol for 4 hours. You didn't think I'd be 3494 03:06:43,360 --> 03:06:47,357 mentioning this, did you? >> Uh it balances everything out perfectly 3495 03:06:47,440 --> 03:06:50,237 as you said. >> So perfect. Uh what's the So let me ask 3496 03:06:50,320 --> 03:06:54,317 what's what's the secret to balance and maybe to happiness in life. 3497 03:06:54,400 --> 03:06:57,917 >> Um I I don't believe in balance. So I I'm the wrong person to ask. 3498 03:06:58,000 --> 03:07:00,237 >> Can you elaborate why you don't believe in balance? 3499 03:07:00,320 --> 03:07:04,157 >> I mean I I maybe it's just and I I look I think people I think people are wired 3500 03:07:04,240 --> 03:07:06,957 differently. So I I think it's hard to generalize uh this kind of thing. But 3501 03:07:07,040 --> 03:07:10,077 I'm I am much happier and more satisfied when I'm fully committed to something. 3502 03:07:10,160 --> 03:07:14,157 So I'm [snorts] very much in favor of of imbalance. Yeah. 3503 03:07:14,240 --> 03:07:19,037 >> Imbalance. And that applies to work, to life, to everything. Yeah. No, no, I 3504 03:07:19,120 --> 03:07:21,597 happen to have whatever twist of personality traits lead that in 3505 03:07:21,680 --> 03:07:24,957 non-destructive dimensions, including the fact that I've actually I now no 3506 03:07:25,040 --> 03:07:28,397 longer do the 104 plan. I I stopped drinking. I do the caffeine, but not the 3507 03:07:28,480 --> 03:07:31,917 alcohol. So, there's something in my personality where I I I whatever 3508 03:07:32,000 --> 03:07:34,797 maladaption I have is inclining me towards productive things, not 3509 03:07:34,880 --> 03:07:37,757 unproductive things. >> So, you're one of the wealthiest people 3510 03:07:37,840 --> 03:07:42,317 in the world. What's the relationship between wealth and happiness? 3511 03:07:42,400 --> 03:07:45,677 >> Oh, uh >> money and happiness. So I think 3512 03:07:45,760 --> 03:07:50,237 happiness I don't think happiness is the thing 3513 03:07:50,320 --> 03:07:53,597 >> to strive for. >> I think satisfaction is the thing. 3514 03:07:53,680 --> 03:07:56,797 >> That's that just sounds like happiness but turned down a bit. 3515 03:07:56,880 --> 03:08:01,517 >> No deeper. So happiness is you know a walk in the woods at sunset. An ice 3516 03:08:01,600 --> 03:08:02,957 cream cone. >> Mhm. 3517 03:08:03,040 --> 03:08:05,917 >> A kiss. Um the first ice cream cone is 3518 03:08:06,000 --> 03:08:10,317 great. The thousandth ice cream cone not so much. At some point the walks in the 3519 03:08:10,400 --> 03:08:14,397 woods get boring. What's the distinction between happiness and uh satisfaction? 3520 03:08:14,480 --> 03:08:16,877 >> I think satisfaction is a deeper thing 3521 03:08:16,960 --> 03:08:18,717 which is like having found a purpose and 3522 03:08:18,800 --> 03:08:22,317 fulfilling it being useful. So just uh 3523 03:08:22,400 --> 03:08:24,477 uh something that permeates all your 3524 03:08:24,560 --> 03:08:28,157 days just this general contentment of of 3525 03:08:28,240 --> 03:08:31,757 being useful >> that I'm fully satisfying my faculties 3526 03:08:31,840 --> 03:08:35,437 that I'm fully delivering right uh on the gifts that I've been given that I'm 3527 03:08:35,520 --> 03:08:38,157 you know net making the world better that I'm contributing to the people 3528 03:08:38,240 --> 03:08:42,397 around me right and that I can look back and say wow that was hard but it was 3529 03:08:42,480 --> 03:08:46,397 worth it I think generally seems to leave people in a better state than 3530 03:08:46,480 --> 03:08:49,357 pursuit of pleasure pursuit of quote unquote happiness 3531 03:08:49,440 --> 03:08:52,797 >> does money have to do with They think the founders and the founding fathers in 3532 03:08:52,880 --> 03:08:55,917 the US threw this offkilter when they used the phrase pursuit of happiness. I 3533 03:08:56,000 --> 03:08:58,077 think they should have said >> pursuit of satisfaction. 3534 03:08:58,160 --> 03:09:00,717 >> They said pursuit of satisfaction. We might live in a better world today. 3535 03:09:00,800 --> 03:09:03,997 >> Well, you know, they could have elaborated on a lot of things about 3536 03:09:04,080 --> 03:09:05,437 [laughter] >> they could have tweaked the second amendment. 3537 03:09:05,520 --> 03:09:08,157 >> I think they were smarter than we realized. They said, you know what, 3538 03:09:08,240 --> 03:09:11,597 we're going to make it ambiguous and let these uh these humans figure out the 3539 03:09:11,680 --> 03:09:14,317 rest. These tribal cultlike humans 3540 03:09:14,400 --> 03:09:16,797 figure out the rest. 3541 03:09:16,880 --> 03:09:22,077 Uh but money empowers that. So I I think and I think there I mean look I think 3542 03:09:22,160 --> 03:09:24,637 Elon is I don't think I'm even a great example but I think Elon would be the 3543 03:09:24,720 --> 03:09:27,437 great example of this which is like you know look he's a guy who from every 3544 03:09:27,520 --> 03:09:29,917 every day of his life from the day he started making money at all he just 3545 03:09:30,000 --> 03:09:34,237 plows it into into the next thing. Um and so I think I think money is 3546 03:09:34,320 --> 03:09:37,357 definitely an enabler for satisfaction this way money applied to happiness 3547 03:09:37,440 --> 03:09:38,957 leads people down very dark paths. 3548 03:09:39,040 --> 03:09:43,197 >> Yeah [laughter] very destructive avenues. Uh money 3549 03:09:43,280 --> 03:09:47,357 applied to satisfaction I think could be is a real tool. Um, I always like, by 3550 03:09:47,440 --> 03:09:50,477 the way, I always liked, you know, Elon is the case study for behavior. But the 3551 03:09:50,560 --> 03:09:53,837 other thing that it's always really made me think is Larry, Larry Page was asked 3552 03:09:53,920 --> 03:09:56,157 one time what his approach to philanthropy was, and he said, "Oh, I'm 3553 03:09:56,240 --> 03:10:01,197 just my my philanthropic plan is just give all the money to Elon." [laughter] 3554 03:10:01,280 --> 03:10:03,597 >> Right. >> Uh, well, let me actually ask you about 3555 03:10:03,680 --> 03:10:07,677 Elon. What What are your um You've interacted with quite a lot of 3556 03:10:07,760 --> 03:10:11,037 successful engineers and business people. What do you think is special 3557 03:10:11,120 --> 03:10:13,597 about Elon? We talked about Steve Jobs. 3558 03:10:13,680 --> 03:10:16,317 what um what do you think is special 3559 03:10:16,400 --> 03:10:18,397 about him as a leader as an innovator? 3560 03:10:18,480 --> 03:10:22,717 >> Yeah, so the the core of it is he's a he's he's back to the future. So he he 3561 03:10:22,800 --> 03:10:26,077 is he is doing the most leading edge things in the world but with an with a 3562 03:10:26,160 --> 03:10:30,237 really deeply old school approach. Um and so to find comparisons to Elon, you 3563 03:10:30,320 --> 03:10:32,157 need to go to like Henry Ford and Thomas 3564 03:10:32,240 --> 03:10:34,797 Watson and Howard Hughes and Andrew 3565 03:10:34,880 --> 03:10:39,677 Carnegie, right? Um Leland Stanford, [snorts] um John Dy Rockefeller, right? 3566 03:10:39,760 --> 03:10:42,877 you need to go to the what were called the bajgeoa capitalists like the 3567 03:10:42,960 --> 03:10:46,797 hardcore business owner operators who basically built you know indust 3568 03:10:46,880 --> 03:10:49,437 basically built industrialized society 3569 03:10:49,520 --> 03:10:53,037 um Vanderbilt um and it's a level of 3570 03:10:53,120 --> 03:10:58,397 hands-on commitment um and uh depth um 3571 03:10:58,480 --> 03:11:01,677 in the business um coupled with an 3572 03:11:01,760 --> 03:11:05,197 absolute priority uh towards truth um 3573 03:11:05,280 --> 03:11:08,397 and towards um how to put it science and 3574 03:11:08,480 --> 03:11:13,037 technology uh town to first principles that is just like absolute just just 3575 03:11:13,120 --> 03:11:14,717 like unbelievably absolute. >> Mhm. 3576 03:11:14,800 --> 03:11:18,077 >> He really is ideal day he's only ever talking to engineers like he does not 3577 03:11:18,160 --> 03:11:22,157 tolerate He has less tolerance than anybody I've ever met. 3578 03:11:22,240 --> 03:11:24,557 >> Um he wants ground truth on every single 3579 03:11:24,640 --> 03:11:28,797 topic. Um and he runs his businesses directly dayto-day devoted to getting to 3580 03:11:28,880 --> 03:11:30,797 ground truth in every single topic. 3581 03:11:30,880 --> 03:11:34,797 >> So uh you think it was a good decision 3582 03:11:34,880 --> 03:11:37,837 for him to buy Twitter? I have developed a view in life to not second guessess 3583 03:11:37,920 --> 03:11:42,557 Elon Musk. [laughter] >> I know this is going to sound 3584 03:11:42,640 --> 03:11:46,957 crazy and unfounded, but >> well I mean uh he's got a quite a track 3585 03:11:47,040 --> 03:11:50,637 record. >> I mean look, the car was a crazy I mean the car was I mean look 3586 03:11:50,720 --> 03:11:52,477 >> he's done a lot of things that seem crazy. 3587 03:11:52,560 --> 03:11:54,877 >> Starting a new car company in the United States of America. The last time 3588 03:11:54,960 --> 03:11:57,997 somebody really tried to do that was the 1950s and it was called Tucker 3589 03:11:58,080 --> 03:12:01,037 Automotive and it was such a disaster they made a movie about what a disaster 3590 03:12:01,120 --> 03:12:05,757 it was. Um and then rockets like who does that? like that's there's obviously 3591 03:12:05,840 --> 03:12:08,707 no way to start a new rocket company like those days are over and then to 3592 03:12:08,790 --> 03:12:12,237 [clears throat] do those at the same time. So after he pulled those two off 3593 03:12:12,320 --> 03:12:17,117 like okay fine like [laughter] like this is one of my areas of like I whatever 3594 03:12:17,200 --> 03:12:19,997 opinions I had about it that is just like okay clearly are not relevant like 3595 03:12:20,080 --> 03:12:22,797 this is you just you at some point you just like bet on the person 3596 03:12:22,880 --> 03:12:26,877 >> and in general I wish more people would lean on celebrating and supporting 3597 03:12:26,960 --> 03:12:28,957 versus deriding and destroying. Oh yeah. 3598 03:12:29,040 --> 03:12:31,677 I mean, look, he drives resentment. Like 3599 03:12:31,760 --> 03:12:33,917 it's resent. Like he he is a magnet for 3600 03:12:34,000 --> 03:12:39,197 resentment. Um like his critics are the most miserable like resentful people in 3601 03:12:39,280 --> 03:12:43,517 the world. Like it's almost a perfect match of like the most idealized, you 3602 03:12:43,600 --> 03:12:47,117 know, technologist, you know, of the century coupled with like just his 3603 03:12:47,200 --> 03:12:50,557 critics are just bitter as can be. I mean, it's it's I mean it's it's sort of 3604 03:12:50,640 --> 03:12:53,277 very darkly comic to watch. 3605 03:12:53,360 --> 03:12:56,157 >> Well, he uh he fuels the fire of that by 3606 03:12:56,240 --> 03:13:00,557 being an on Twitter at times. And which is fascinating to watch the 3607 03:13:00,640 --> 03:13:02,717 drama of human civilization given our 3608 03:13:02,800 --> 03:13:07,117 cult roots just fully on fire. 3609 03:13:07,200 --> 03:13:11,277 >> He's running a cult. [laughter] >> You could say that >> very successfully. 3610 03:13:11,360 --> 03:13:15,357 >> So now now that our cults have gone and we search for meaning, what do you think 3611 03:13:15,440 --> 03:13:16,717 is the meaning of this whole thing? 3612 03:13:16,800 --> 03:13:18,717 What's the meaning of life, Mark Andre? 3613 03:13:18,800 --> 03:13:23,917 >> I don't know the answer to that. Um I think the meaning of uh of uh the 3614 03:13:24,000 --> 03:13:27,037 closest I get to it is what I said about satisfaction. So it's basically like 3615 03:13:27,120 --> 03:13:30,317 okay we were given what we have like we should basically do our best 3616 03:13:30,400 --> 03:13:34,237 >> what's the role of love in that mix >> I mean like what's the point of life if 3617 03:13:34,320 --> 03:13:38,237 you're yeah without love like yeah >> so love is a big part of that 3618 03:13:38,320 --> 03:13:41,677 satisfaction and look like taking care of people is like a wonderful thing like 3619 03:13:41,760 --> 03:13:45,677 it you know a mentality you know there are pathological forms of taking care of 3620 03:13:45,760 --> 03:13:48,157 people but there's also a very fundamental you know kind of aspect of 3621 03:13:48,240 --> 03:13:50,957 taking care of people like for example I happen to be somebody who believes that 3622 03:13:51,040 --> 03:13:54,797 capitalism and taking care of people are actually they're actually the same thing 3623 03:13:54,880 --> 03:13:58,877 um somebody once that capitalism is how you take care of people you don't know, 3624 03:13:58,960 --> 03:14:02,717 >> right? Um, right. And so, like, yeah, I think it's like deeply woven into the 3625 03:14:02,800 --> 03:14:05,677 whole thing. Um, you know, there's a long conversation to be had about that, 3626 03:14:05,760 --> 03:14:08,877 but yeah. >> Yeah. Creating products that are used by 3627 03:14:08,960 --> 03:14:10,717 millions of people and bring them joy in 3628 03:14:10,800 --> 03:14:13,037 smaller big ways. And then capitalism 3629 03:14:13,120 --> 03:14:16,237 kind of enables that, encourages that. 3630 03:14:16,320 --> 03:14:17,917 >> David Freriedman says there's only three 3631 03:14:18,000 --> 03:14:19,517 ways to get somebody to do something for 3632 03:14:19,600 --> 03:14:23,637 somebody else. Love, money, and force. 3633 03:14:23,720 --> 03:14:29,357 [laughter] And um love and money are better than force. 3634 03:14:29,440 --> 03:14:32,157 >> That's a good ordering. I think >> we should we we should bet on those. 3635 03:14:32,240 --> 03:14:34,797 >> Try love first. If that doesn't work, then money 3636 03:14:34,880 --> 03:14:38,957 >> and then force. Well, don't even try that one. Uh Mark, you're an incredible 3637 03:14:39,040 --> 03:14:42,397 person. I've been a huge fan. I'm glad to finally got a chance to talk. I'm a 3638 03:14:42,480 --> 03:14:46,557 fan of everything you do. Everything you do, including on Twitter. It's a huge 3639 03:14:46,640 --> 03:14:49,277 honor to meet you, to talk with you. Uh thanks again for doing this. 3640 03:14:49,360 --> 03:14:52,157 >> Awesome. Thank you, Lex. >> Thanks for listening to this 3641 03:14:52,240 --> 03:14:55,677 conversation with Mark Andre. To support this podcast, please check out our 3642 03:14:55,760 --> 03:14:58,557 sponsors in the description. And now, 3643 03:14:58,640 --> 03:14:59,917 let me leave you with some words from 3644 03:15:00,000 --> 03:15:03,357 Mark Andre himself. The world is a very 3645 03:15:03,440 --> 03:15:05,677 malleable place. If you know what you 3646 03:15:05,760 --> 03:15:08,317 want and you go for it with maximum 3647 03:15:08,400 --> 03:15:11,517 energy and drive and passion, the world 3648 03:15:11,600 --> 03:15:13,917 will often reconfigure itself around you 3649 03:15:14,000 --> 03:15:16,237 much more quickly and easily than you 3650 03:15:16,320 --> 03:15:23,240 would think. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.