WEBVTT 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:04.797 idea of the superpowered individual uh where if if I'm a coder like you know I 00:00:04.880 --> 00:00:07.517 mean step one is like I need to make sure that I really understand AI coding 00:00:07.600 --> 00:00:10.477 and like what that means and what how coding is going to change in the future 00:00:10.560 --> 00:00:13.997 you know that that I need to you know specifically how to go from being a 00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:17.357 coder who writes code entirely by hand to being a coder who you know 00:00:17.440 --> 00:00:21.597 orchestrates you know a dozen instances of of you know coding bots you know you 00:00:21.680 --> 00:00:24.477 know there's there's a change in the actual job of coding itself which is 00:00:24.560 --> 00:00:27.917 which is happening right now but the other part of it is okay how do I become 00:00:28.000 --> 00:00:31.277 that superpowered individual how how do become a coder that also then harnesses 00:00:31.360 --> 00:00:34.477 AI so that I can also be a great product manager and I I can also be a great 00:00:34.560 --> 00:00:38.157 designer, right? And then the same thing for the product manager which is how do 00:00:38.240 --> 00:00:40.957 I make sure that I can now use coding tools? How do I make sure I can also you 00:00:41.040 --> 00:00:44.957 know do AI AI based design? And the same thing for the designer which is how do I 00:00:45.040 --> 00:00:48.397 use AI to be also become a coder and also become a product manager. And then 00:00:48.480 --> 00:00:52.797 what you get is maybe the maybe the those individual roles change like maybe 00:00:52.880 --> 00:00:55.837 those are not anymore sort of stovepipe roles the way that you know they have 00:00:55.920 --> 00:00:57.597 been for the last 30 years or whatever. 00:00:57.680 --> 00:01:01.037 Uh but what happens is the the talented people in any of those roles become 00:01:01.120 --> 00:01:04.237 superpowered and they become good at doing all three of those things. Um and 00:01:04.320 --> 00:01:06.957 then and then those people become incredibly valuable because then those 00:01:07.040 --> 00:01:10.477 are people who can actually like you know build and design right new products 00:01:10.560 --> 00:01:13.277 right from scratch which is like the you know which is which is the most valuable 00:01:13.360 --> 00:01:17.117 thing. And so I I think I think that's I think I think that's the opportunity. 00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:20.557 >> So I love this answer. So what I'm hearing is essentially uh if you're 00:01:20.640 --> 00:01:23.997 amazing at any of these three roles you will do well. Number one, if you're 00:01:24.080 --> 00:01:25.837 amazing at these roles, that's great. 00:01:25.920 --> 00:01:29.597 But also, you part of being amazing in these roles is also being being able to 00:01:29.680 --> 00:01:31.757 fully harness the new technology, right? 00:01:31.840 --> 00:01:35.437 So, if you're if you're a master coder today and you you don't ever get to the 00:01:35.520 --> 00:01:38.157 point where you you figure out how to use AI to leverage your coding skills, 00:01:38.240 --> 00:01:41.357 you know, and and do more, right? Like at some point, you are going to hit an 00:01:41.440 --> 00:01:46.477 issue, right? Here's another way economists talk about this, which is 00:01:46.560 --> 00:01:50.157 there's the concept of the job, but the job is not actually the atomic unit of 00:01:50.240 --> 00:01:52.397 what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the 00:01:52.480 --> 00:01:56.157 workplace is the task. And so and and then what what the way the economists 00:01:56.240 --> 00:01:59.997 think about it is a job is a bundle of tasks. And everybody wants to talk about 00:02:00.080 --> 00:02:01.357 job loss, but really what you want to 00:02:01.440 --> 00:02:04.397 look at is is task task loss, right? 00:02:04.480 --> 00:02:07.837 Tasks changing. I mean the the the the 00:02:07.920 --> 00:02:11.437 classic the classic example of task changing. Classic example of task 00:02:11.520 --> 00:02:15.517 changing was once upon a time executives never used typewriters or personal 00:02:15.600 --> 00:02:18.877 computers themselves, right? You know, if you were a vice president of a 00:02:18.960 --> 00:02:21.997 company in 1970 or whatever, you did not have like a typewriter or a computer on 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:25.517 your desk typing things. You had a secretary who you dictated memos to, 00:02:25.600 --> 00:02:28.077 right? And then there and then there was this change where like emails started to 00:02:28.160 --> 00:02:31.357 show up. And what would happen was the job of the secretary then went from, you 00:02:31.440 --> 00:02:34.397 know, it went from, you know, the the job of the secretary changed from 00:02:34.480 --> 00:02:37.437 sending out letters with stamps on them to like sending or receiving emails with 00:02:37.520 --> 00:02:40.717 the other admins. And then and then that the secretary would print out the email 00:02:40.800 --> 00:02:43.357 and bring it into the executive's office. And the executive office would 00:02:43.440 --> 00:02:47.997 read the email and paper, scroll scroll the reply. um and and and and give and 00:02:48.080 --> 00:02:50.477 give that message back to the secretary who would go back and type it into the 00:02:50.560 --> 00:02:54.797 computer on on on on his or her desk and send it as an email. Fast forward to 00:02:54.880 --> 00:02:58.877 today, none of that happens. Now executives just do all their own email. 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:02.957 They still have secretaries or admins, but they're now doing different tasks. 00:03:03.040 --> 00:03:06.077 You know, they're travel planning and orchestrating events and like doing all 00:03:06.160 --> 00:03:09.677 these other things, you know, that that you know that the great admins do. And 00:03:09.760 --> 00:03:14.237 then that and then the task the task set ironically of the executive has expanded 00:03:14.320 --> 00:03:17.517 to do actually more of the clerical work themselves actually like sit there and 00:03:17.600 --> 00:03:20.637 like type their own memos which again 50 years ago they never never would have 00:03:20.720 --> 00:03:24.077 done that. And so the executive job still exists the secretary job still 00:03:24.160 --> 00:03:28.157 exists u but the tasks have changed and and I think that's like a great example 00:03:28.240 --> 00:03:31.037 of what's going to happen in coding. The tasks are going to change it's product 00:03:31.120 --> 00:03:33.517 management the tasks are going to change. designer tasks are going to 00:03:33.600 --> 00:03:36.557 change and so the the the job can p the 00:03:36.640 --> 00:03:38.477 job persists longer than the individual 00:03:38.560 --> 00:03:41.437 tasks and then as the tasks change 00:03:41.520 --> 00:03:46.237 enough then that's when the jobs change and so at the at the level of individual 00:03:46.320 --> 00:03:49.757 you kind of want to think of like okay I have this job the job is a bundle of 00:03:49.840 --> 00:03:53.277 tasks I need to be really good at making sure that I can like swap the tasks out 00:03:53.360 --> 00:03:56.877 right I can I can really adapt use the new technology you know get really good 00:03:56.960 --> 00:04:00.077 at AI coding for example um I can you know and then and then you want to kind 00:04:00.160 --> 00:04:03.117 of add skills I can also get really good at I can also get really good at product 00:04:03.200 --> 00:04:06.477 management because I've got this new tool. So you want to kind of pick up 00:04:06.560 --> 00:04:09.997 more and more scope as you do that. And then you know 10 years from now is your 00:04:10.080 --> 00:04:12.717 job title coder or coder designer 00:04:12.800 --> 00:04:17.197 product manager or is it just I build products or is it just I tell the AI how 00:04:17.280 --> 00:04:20.397 to build products? It's like whatever that whatever that job is called who 00:04:20.480 --> 00:04:22.797 even knows what it's going to be but it's going to be incredibly important 00:04:22.880 --> 00:04:25.917 because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI. And so 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:29.837 that that that's the track that the best people are going to be on. Um, and and I 00:04:29.920 --> 00:04:32.477 think that that's the thing to lean hard lean heart into. 00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:35.997 >> I think people aren't fully grasping just specifically software engineering 00:04:36.080 --> 00:04:40.317 and how much that is changing. Like it's pretty clear we're going to be in a 00:04:40.400 --> 00:04:43.997 world soon where engineers are not actually writing code which I think a 00:04:44.080 --> 00:04:47.037 year ago we would not have thought and now it's just clearly this is where it's 00:04:47.120 --> 00:04:49.997 heading. It's like there's going to be this artisal experience of sitting there 00:04:50.080 --> 00:04:54.237 writing code which is so crazy how much that job is going to change. 00:04:54.320 --> 00:04:56.397 >> Yeah. So again here I go back and again 00:04:56.480 --> 00:05:02.077 pardon maybe the history lesson but like I go back like coding. So the first you 00:05:02.160 --> 00:05:04.637 may know that do you know that the original definition of the of the term 00:05:04.720 --> 00:05:07.037 calculator? Do you know what that referred to? 00:05:07.120 --> 00:05:10.237 >> No. >> It referred to people. 00:05:10.320 --> 00:05:14.157 Right. So back there were like electronic calculators or computers or 00:05:14.240 --> 00:05:18.237 any of these things. um the way that you would actually do computing, the way 00:05:18.320 --> 00:05:20.637 that you would do calculating like the way that insurance company would 00:05:20.720 --> 00:05:23.677 calculate actuarial tables or the military would like calculate you know I 00:05:23.760 --> 00:05:27.357 don't know whatever troop logistics you formulas or whatever it was the way that 00:05:27.440 --> 00:05:30.477 you would do it is you would actually have a room full of people um and by the 00:05:30.560 --> 00:05:33.117 way these like big rooms you could have hundreds or thousands or tens of 00:05:33.200 --> 00:05:36.237 thousands of people doing this and you would actually you would actually figure 00:05:36.320 --> 00:05:38.877 out you have somebody at the head of the room who was like responsible for like 00:05:38.960 --> 00:05:42.397 whatever the mathematical equation was and then they would parcel out the 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:45.277 individual mathematical calculations to people sitting at desks who were doing 00:05:45.360 --> 00:05:48.957 them all by hand, right? And and those that that that job title was those 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:53.757 people were calculators, right? Um and so we've gone from a world in which you 00:05:53.840 --> 00:05:58.157 literally have people doing mathematical equations by hands by hand. Then we got 00:05:58.240 --> 00:06:00.717 the first computers. The first computers of course didn't have programming 00:06:00.800 --> 00:06:04.317 languages, right? They they only had machine code, right? So the first 00:06:04.400 --> 00:06:07.837 computers were programmed with ones and zeros. And so the task of the programmer 00:06:07.920 --> 00:06:11.997 became do the ones and zeros. And then that became punch cards. And you can 00:06:12.080 --> 00:06:14.637 still, you know, there's still people, you know, kicking, you know, today who, 00:06:14.720 --> 00:06:17.757 you know, whose job as a programmer was to like deal with the punch cards. And 00:06:17.840 --> 00:06:20.397 then you got actually this big breakthrough which was called assembly 00:06:20.480 --> 00:06:23.917 language, which was basically the way to do machine code, but like with some 00:06:24.000 --> 00:06:27.437 level of like English kind of added to it. And then the best programmers did 00:06:27.520 --> 00:06:30.237 assembly language. And then, you know, when I was coming up, it was higher 00:06:30.320 --> 00:06:33.677 level languages like C that compiled into machine code. And that's what 00:06:33.760 --> 00:06:36.957 programmers did. And then I still remember when when scripting, you know, 00:06:37.040 --> 00:06:39.277 when scripting languages, you know, we developed JavaScript at Netscape and 00:06:39.360 --> 00:06:41.437 then, you know, Python took off and Pearl and these other scripting 00:06:41.520 --> 00:06:44.797 languages. When scripting languages, you know, took off in the in the in the in 00:06:44.880 --> 00:06:48.717 the in the 2000s, there's this big fight in the technical community, which is is 00:06:48.800 --> 00:06:51.597 scripting real programming or not, right? Because it's it's like it's kind 00:06:51.680 --> 00:06:54.877 of cheating, right? Because real programmers write code that compiles to 00:06:54.960 --> 00:06:58.317 machine code and like real programmers like do like memory management 00:06:58.400 --> 00:07:01.277 themselves and they do all you know this this this whole craft of writing writing 00:07:01.360 --> 00:07:04.397 uh you know writing writing C code and you know these these JavaScript or 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:06.717 Python programmers are just doing this kind of lightweight thing and does it 00:07:06.800 --> 00:07:09.357 even really count as as coding and of course the answer is yes it very much 00:07:09.440 --> 00:07:13.037 counted and now most coding is done with the scripting languages right um which 00:07:13.120 --> 00:07:17.437 have you see my point the scripting languages have abstracted away like five 00:07:17.520 --> 00:07:20.237 layers of detail underneath that that people used to do by hand and they don't 00:07:20.320 --> 00:07:24.237 anymore and then and then there's and to your point like AI coding is the next 00:07:24.320 --> 00:07:27.037 layer on that AI coding actually abstracts away the process of actually 00:07:27.120 --> 00:07:31.197 writing the scripting code right and so in one sense this is a really big deal 00:07:31.280 --> 00:07:33.917 for all the obvious reasons but on the other hand it's like okay this is the 00:07:34.000 --> 00:07:36.477 next layer of the task redefinition 00:07:36.560 --> 00:07:40.157 under the job of programmer right now 00:07:40.240 --> 00:07:43.917 what's the job of the programmer it's to your point it's not necessarily to write 00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:46.957 the code by hand but what it is now is all right now you know if you talk to 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:50.157 the world's best programmers today what they'll tell you is oh my job is I'm 00:07:50.240 --> 00:07:53.837 sitting there and I'm orchestrating 10 code bots, right? Coding bots that are 00:07:53.920 --> 00:07:56.317 running in parallel, right? And literally they sit there and they shift 00:07:56.400 --> 00:07:58.797 from browser, you know, browser to browser or terminal to terminal and 00:07:58.880 --> 00:08:01.597 they're and they're they're watch they're their their day their day job 00:08:01.680 --> 00:08:04.397 now is kind of arguing with the AI bots to try to get them to like write the 00:08:04.480 --> 00:08:07.277 right code, right? And then and then debug it and and fix the problems and 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:10.717 change change the spec and and do all these things. And so now now the job of 00:08:10.800 --> 00:08:14.157 the programmer is to argue with the coding bots. But like if you don't know 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:17.037 how to write the code yourself, you don't know how to evaluate what the 00:08:17.120 --> 00:08:18.637 coding bots are giving you, right? 00:08:18.720 --> 00:08:21.677 Right. And so, you know, you asked about the 10, you know, our 10-year-old is, 00:08:21.760 --> 00:08:24.317 you know, super into computers and super into programming. And what I'm what I'm 00:08:24.400 --> 00:08:27.597 tell, you know, he's he's using Claude and ChatgPD co-pilot and all these 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:30.237 things. What I'm telling him is like, look, and by the way, he loves vibe 00:08:30.320 --> 00:08:32.957 coding. He's on Replet all the time doing vibe coding, you know, doing game 00:08:33.040 --> 00:08:35.597 doing games, you know, he's sitting there, you know, it's hysterical, right? 00:08:35.680 --> 00:08:37.677 Because he's sitting there, it's a 10-year-old basically who's, you know, 00:08:37.760 --> 00:08:42.717 spends two hours at dinner arguing with an AI for fun, right? Um, right? But but 00:08:42.800 --> 00:08:46.077 what I'm telling him is, no, look, you need to still fully understand and learn 00:08:46.160 --> 00:08:50.397 how to write and understand code because the coding bots are giving you code. If 00:08:50.480 --> 00:08:53.117 it doesn't work or if it's not doing what you expect or it's not fast enough 00:08:53.200 --> 00:08:55.997 or whatever, like you need to be able to understand the results of what the AI is 00:08:56.080 --> 00:08:58.877 giving you, right? In in the same way that somebody who's writing scripting 00:08:58.960 --> 00:09:01.997 language code does need to understand ultimately how the microprocessor works. 00:09:02.080 --> 00:09:06.317 Um, and so again, it's it's kind of this upleveling of capability where you 00:09:06.400 --> 00:09:09.757 actually want the depth to be able to go down and be able to understand what the 00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:12.717 thing is actually doing, even if you're not spending your day actually doing 00:09:12.800 --> 00:09:15.757 that by hand. And again, I look at that and I'm like, okay, now programmers are 00:09:15.840 --> 00:09:18.797 going to be 10 times or 100 times or a thousand times more productive than they 00:09:18.880 --> 00:09:22.237 used to be, right? And and that and and that is overwhelmingly a good thing. 00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:25.837 That the the the tasks are definitely changing. The nature of the job is 00:09:25.920 --> 00:09:28.157 changing. Um, but are human beings going 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:33.277 to be involved in like in the coding process and overseeing the the AI coding 00:09:33.360 --> 00:09:37.357 and all that? And and the answer is of course absolutely 100%. Like no question. 00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:40.077 >> So you're in the camp of still learning to code. Still a valuable skill. 00:09:40.160 --> 00:09:43.437 >> Oh yeah, totally. Well, again, if you want to be one of these super look look, 00:09:43.520 --> 00:09:47.117 if you just want to put your like self in autopilot and like I can't be 00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:49.357 bothered and I'm just going to have AI write the code and it's going to 00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:51.837 generate whatever it does and that's fine and I'm going to be, you know, I'm 00:09:51.920 --> 00:09:56.557 going to be if if the goal is to be a mediocre coder, then just let the AI do 00:09:56.640 --> 00:09:59.197 it. It's fine. The AI is going to be perfectly good at generating infinite 00:09:59.280 --> 00:10:00.877 amounts of mediocre code, no problem. 00:10:00.960 --> 00:10:04.237 It's all good. If if if the goal is I want to be one of the best software 00:10:04.320 --> 00:10:07.197 people in the world and I want to build new software products and technologies 00:10:07.280 --> 00:10:11.437 that like really matter then yeah you 100% want to still be you want to go all 00:10:11.520 --> 00:10:13.997 the way down you want your skill set to go all the way down to the assembly to 00:10:14.080 --> 00:10:17.277 assembly and machine code you want to understand every layer of the stack you 00:10:17.360 --> 00:10:19.997 want to deeply understand what's happening at the level of the chip right 00:10:20.080 --> 00:10:23.597 and and and the network and so forth by the way you also really deeply want to 00:10:23.680 --> 00:10:27.037 understand how the AI itself works right because you want to right because if 00:10:27.120 --> 00:10:30.557 people who understand how the AI works are able to they're clearly able to get 00:10:30.640 --> 00:10:33.117 more value out of it than somebody doesn't understand how it works, right? 00:10:33.200 --> 00:10:35.677 I mean, you're always more productive if you know how the machine works, right, 00:10:35.760 --> 00:10:39.437 when you use the machine. And so, yeah, the the super empowered individual on 00:10:39.520 --> 00:10:42.317 the other end of this that wants to do great things with the new technology, 00:10:42.400 --> 00:10:45.517 yes, you 100% want to understand this thing all the way down the stack because 00:10:45.600 --> 00:10:48.557 you want to be able to understand what it's giving you, right? And and and when 00:10:48.640 --> 00:10:50.797 something doesn't work or when something isn't right, you want to be able to 00:10:50.880 --> 00:10:52.637 really quickly understand why that is. 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:57.197 Um, by the way, again, this goes back to education. AI is your best friend at 00:10:57.280 --> 00:10:58.317 helping you learn all that, right? 00:10:58.400 --> 00:11:00.797 because it's like, oh, I need to understand, I don't know, like this 00:11:00.880 --> 00:11:04.557 isn't fast enough. Um, I need to go I need to figure out as a coder, I need to 00:11:04.640 --> 00:11:06.797 figure out how to do a different approach to memory management or 00:11:06.880 --> 00:11:09.517 something. And you can be like, well, you know, like I, you know, I 00:11:09.600 --> 00:11:13.437 don't quite know how to do that. Okay, AI, let's spend 10 minutes. Teach me how 00:11:13.520 --> 00:11:17.437 to do this, right? Teach me what this all means, right? So, all of a sudden, 00:11:17.520 --> 00:11:20.077 you have this like incredibly synergistic relationship with the AI 00:11:20.160 --> 00:11:22.477 where it's also helping you get better at the same time as it's doing a lot of 00:11:22.560 --> 00:11:24.557 work for you. >> By the way, I was going to say I was a 00:11:24.640 --> 00:11:27.917 big Pearl uh programmer. I was an engineer for 10 years and that was my my 00:11:28.000 --> 00:11:30.557 language of choice. >> You do you remember I don't know when 00:11:30.640 --> 00:11:33.277 you were doing it but do do you remember at the at least early on do you remember 00:11:33.360 --> 00:11:36.957 did you ever did you ever hit this where like coders were like looking down their 00:11:37.040 --> 00:11:39.677 nose at you being like >> for sure for sure it's like this is so 00:11:39.760 --> 00:11:41.757 slow it's not going to scale what are you what are you spending all your time 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:43.997 on this thing? Yeah, >> exactly. And of course, you know, and 00:11:44.080 --> 00:11:46.477 again, it was sort of this thing where, you know, they were they were sort of 00:11:46.560 --> 00:11:48.957 correct, which is at the beginning it wasn't, you know, fast enough or 00:11:49.040 --> 00:11:52.397 whatever. By the end, they were definitely wrong, right? Which is it got 00:11:52.480 --> 00:11:55.757 much better much faster and, you know, it swept the world. Uh, you know, most 00:11:55.840 --> 00:11:58.877 coding today happens in scripting languages. And and then, by the way, the 00:11:58.960 --> 00:12:01.757 people along along the way, the people who really understood the scripting 00:12:01.840 --> 00:12:04.637 languages and the people who understood all the lower level systems, they were 00:12:04.720 --> 00:12:06.877 the ones who were able to actually make the scripting languages actually work 00:12:06.960 --> 00:12:10.157 really well, right? And so that that was that was a great example of this kind of 00:12:10.240 --> 00:12:13.597 adaptation. And then and then again the result of that was you know a far higher 00:12:13.680 --> 00:12:15.997 number of people writing code with scripting languages than were ever 00:12:16.080 --> 00:12:19.280 writing code with lower level languages.