WEBVTT 00:00:00.400 --> 00:00:05.597 What does super intelligence mean and when is it likely to be here? Eric, 00:00:05.680 --> 00:00:07.437 we've talked about this. What are your thoughts? 00:00:07.520 --> 00:00:11.197 >> Super intelligence is defined as 00:00:11.280 --> 00:00:14.557 >> AI's ability to know from chemistry to 00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:18.797 biology to to sports. It's already super 00:00:18.880 --> 00:00:22.157 to human in many ways. But the 00:00:22.240 --> 00:00:25.357 collaboration between humans and AI will 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:30.157 be the most productive and fruitful way of of doing things. 00:00:30.240 --> 00:00:34.637 >> All of the evidence and fee said this very well is going to be human and 00:00:34.720 --> 00:00:39.197 computer interaction. I think that to get to real super intelligence, we 00:00:39.280 --> 00:00:40.717 probably need another algorithmic 00:00:40.800 --> 00:00:43.677 breakthrough. It's so important as we 00:00:43.760 --> 00:00:47.277 talk about AGI at ASI that the most 00:00:47.360 --> 00:00:52.077 important thing that we keep in mind is 00:00:52.160 --> 00:00:56.760 >> now that's a moonshot ladies and gentlemen. 00:00:57.200 --> 00:00:58.957 >> Everybody welcome to Eric Schmidt week. 00:00:59.040 --> 00:01:01.837 Uh two episodes this week both with Eric 00:01:01.920 --> 00:01:03.357 talking about some of the most important 00:01:03.440 --> 00:01:06.557 developments. The first is with me and 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:10.317 Eric and Fay Lee uh who's building world 00:01:10.400 --> 00:01:12.077 models. This is a conversation we had 00:01:12.160 --> 00:01:15.597 live at FI in Saudi Arabia talking about 00:01:15.680 --> 00:01:20.477 digital super intelligence. Uh this is rare because FFE doesn't travel. It was 00:01:20.560 --> 00:01:22.397 her first trip to Saudi and it was an 00:01:22.480 --> 00:01:25.037 extraordinary conversation. The second 00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:27.837 episode is between my moonshot mate Dave 00:01:27.920 --> 00:01:29.677 Blondon and Eric Schmidt talking about 00:01:29.760 --> 00:01:33.117 US versus China and how to avoid, you 00:01:33.200 --> 00:01:37.277 know, critical breakdowns and what might be catastrophes in the future due to 00:01:37.360 --> 00:01:39.997 accelerating AI. All right, get ready 00:01:40.080 --> 00:01:45.197 for two incredible episodes. The first one, myself, Eric, and Faith Ae on 00:01:45.280 --> 00:01:50.520 digital super intelligence. All right, let's jump in. 00:01:52.880 --> 00:01:54.477 We're going to be discussing super 00:01:54.560 --> 00:01:57.037 intelligence. What does that mean and 00:01:57.120 --> 00:02:00.237 what happens when it arrives? Uh we've 00:02:00.320 --> 00:02:05.197 been talking about AI, AGI, now perhaps 00:02:05.280 --> 00:02:07.597 digital super intelligence or ASI. I 00:02:07.680 --> 00:02:10.237 want to start with the obvious question 00:02:10.320 --> 00:02:12.717 and it's one that I don't think anybody 00:02:12.800 --> 00:02:15.757 has a perfect answer for, but what does 00:02:15.840 --> 00:02:20.317 super intelligence mean and when is it likely to be here? 00:02:20.400 --> 00:02:22.957 Eric, we've talked about this. What are your thoughts? 00:02:23.040 --> 00:02:26.717 >> So, a simple Thank you, Peter, and thanks for everybody for being here and 00:02:26.800 --> 00:02:29.277 obviously thanks to FFE, our very close 00:02:29.360 --> 00:02:32.717 colleague. Um, the general accepted 00:02:32.800 --> 00:02:37.837 definitions of general intelligence is its human level of intelligence, AGI. 00:02:37.920 --> 00:02:40.637 And human intelligence you can understand because we're all human. You 00:02:40.720 --> 00:02:44.557 have ideas, you have friends, you have, you know, you think about things, you're 00:02:44.640 --> 00:02:49.197 creative. Super intelligence is defined as the 00:02:49.280 --> 00:02:51.517 intelligence equal to the sum of 00:02:51.600 --> 00:02:55.357 everyone, right? Or even better than all 00:02:55.440 --> 00:02:58.957 humans. And there is a belief in our 00:02:59.040 --> 00:03:00.957 industry that we will get to super 00:03:01.040 --> 00:03:03.917 intelligence. We don't know exactly how 00:03:04.000 --> 00:03:08.717 long. Uh there's a group of people who I call the San Francisco consensus because 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:11.757 it's all they're all living in San Francisco. Maybe it's the weather or the 00:03:11.840 --> 00:03:15.437 drugs or something, but they all basically think that it's within 3 to 00:03:15.520 --> 00:03:19.997 four years. Uh I personally think it'll be longer than that. But fundamentally, 00:03:20.080 --> 00:03:23.037 their argument is that there are compounding 00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:27.997 uh effects that we're seeing now which will race us to this much faster than 00:03:28.080 --> 00:03:31.837 people think. >> And Fay, I don't think anybody's 00:03:31.920 --> 00:03:37.277 expected the performance that AI has given us so far. The scaling laws have 00:03:37.360 --> 00:03:40.637 given us capabilities that are extraordinary. you know, you're the CEO 00:03:40.720 --> 00:03:43.437 of a a new company, the founder of World 00:03:43.520 --> 00:03:48.157 Labs. You've been at Stanford working on this. Uh how do you think about super 00:03:48.240 --> 00:03:51.837 intelligence? Do you discuss super intelligence at all in your work? 00:03:51.920 --> 00:03:53.757 >> Yeah, that's a great question, Peter. 00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:57.357 And uh um you know, when Alan Turing 00:03:57.440 --> 00:04:00.317 dared humanity with the question of can 00:04:00.400 --> 00:04:03.837 we create thinking machines, um he was 00:04:03.920 --> 00:04:06.797 thinking about the fundamental question 00:04:06.880 --> 00:04:10.237 of intelligence. So the birth of AI is 00:04:10.320 --> 00:04:13.677 about intelligence is about the the the 00:04:13.760 --> 00:04:16.717 profound general ability of what 00:04:16.800 --> 00:04:19.037 intelligence means. So from that point 00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:22.877 of view AI is already born as a field 00:04:22.960 --> 00:04:25.597 that tries to push the boundary of what 00:04:25.680 --> 00:04:29.197 intelligence mean. Now in fast forward 00:04:29.280 --> 00:04:32.957 to 75 years after Allan Touring this 00:04:33.040 --> 00:04:36.077 phrase uh uh super intelligence is 00:04:36.160 --> 00:04:38.557 pretty hot in Silicon Valley and I do 00:04:38.640 --> 00:04:40.877 agree with Eric that the colloquial 00:04:40.960 --> 00:04:45.117 definition is um what is uh is the 00:04:45.200 --> 00:04:48.397 capability of AI and computers that's 00:04:48.480 --> 00:04:51.917 better than any human. But I do think we 00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:53.997 need to be a little careful. First of 00:04:54.080 --> 00:04:57.437 all, some part of today's AI is already 00:04:57.520 --> 00:05:01.437 better than any human. For example, um 00:05:01.520 --> 00:05:04.717 AI's ability of speaking many different 00:05:04.800 --> 00:05:07.837 languages, translating between, you 00:05:07.920 --> 00:05:11.997 know, dozens and dozens of language. 00:05:12.080 --> 00:05:14.957 Pretty much no human can do that. Or 00:05:15.040 --> 00:05:17.997 AI's ability to calculate things really 00:05:18.080 --> 00:05:21.277 fast. AI's ability to know from 00:05:21.360 --> 00:05:24.397 chemistry to biology to to sports, you 00:05:24.480 --> 00:05:27.357 know, the vast amount of uh knowledge. 00:05:27.440 --> 00:05:31.837 So, it's already super to human in many 00:05:31.920 --> 00:05:34.637 ways. But 00:05:34.720 --> 00:05:39.517 it remains a question that um can AI 00:05:39.600 --> 00:05:41.917 ever be Newton? 00:05:42.000 --> 00:05:47.597 Can AI ever be Einstein? Can AI ever be Picasso? 00:05:47.680 --> 00:05:48.077 M 00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:51.997 >> I actually don't know. For example, 00:05:52.080 --> 00:05:55.197 we have all the celestial data of the 00:05:55.280 --> 00:05:58.797 movement of the stars that we observe 00:05:58.880 --> 00:06:02.797 today. Give that data to any AI 00:06:02.880 --> 00:06:06.477 algorithm. It will not be able to deduce 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:10.797 Newtonian law of motion. 00:06:10.880 --> 00:06:13.677 that ability that humans have. It's the 00:06:13.760 --> 00:06:18.157 combination of creativity, abstraction. 00:06:18.240 --> 00:06:22.317 I do not see today's AI or tomorrow's AI 00:06:22.400 --> 00:06:24.157 being able to do that yet. 00:06:24.240 --> 00:06:27.197 >> So, so one of the common examples that 00:06:27.280 --> 00:06:30.637 and Fei of course got it right is to 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:34.797 think about if you had all of the knowledge in a computer that existed in 00:06:34.880 --> 00:06:36.317 1902. Yes. 00:06:36.400 --> 00:06:39.597 >> Could you invent relativity? uh 00:06:39.680 --> 00:06:41.837 basically the physics of today and the 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.117 answer today is no. Um so for example if 00:06:45.200 --> 00:06:46.797 you look at what is called test time 00:06:46.880 --> 00:06:49.197 compute where the systems are doing 00:06:49.280 --> 00:06:52.397 reasoning they can't take the reasoning 00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:57.037 that they learned and feed it back into themselves very quickly. Whereas if 00:06:57.120 --> 00:07:00.957 you're a mathematician you prove something you can base your next proof 00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:03.517 on that. It's hard for the systems today 00:07:03.600 --> 00:07:06.557 although there are appro approximations. 00:07:06.640 --> 00:07:08.957 So we're we're it's We don't know where 00:07:09.040 --> 00:07:10.717 the boundaries are. The example that I'd 00:07:10.800 --> 00:07:13.837 like to use is let's imagine that we can 00:07:13.920 --> 00:07:16.077 get computers that can solve everything 00:07:16.160 --> 00:07:19.037 that we normally can do as humans except 00:07:19.120 --> 00:07:22.397 for these amazing set of creativities. 00:07:22.480 --> 00:07:25.117 How do really creative people do it? The 00:07:25.200 --> 00:07:27.277 best examples are that they are experts 00:07:27.360 --> 00:07:30.077 in one area, they see another area and 00:07:30.160 --> 00:07:32.237 they have an intuition that the same 00:07:32.320 --> 00:07:37.437 mechanism will solve a problem of a completely different area there. That's 00:07:37.520 --> 00:07:39.117 an example of something we have to learn 00:07:39.200 --> 00:07:42.237 how to do with AI. An alternative would 00:07:42.320 --> 00:07:45.197 be to simply do it uh in brute force 00:07:45.280 --> 00:07:49.357 using reinforcement learning. The problem is that combinatorily the cost 00:07:49.440 --> 00:07:53.837 of that is insane and we're already running out of electricity and so forth. 00:07:53.920 --> 00:07:58.157 So I think that to get to real super intelligence, we probably need another 00:07:58.240 --> 00:08:00.317 algorithmic breakthrough. >> We need another what? 00:08:00.400 --> 00:08:05.437 >> Algorithmic breakthrough. Another way of dealing with this. So the technical the 00:08:05.520 --> 00:08:08.957 technical term is called non-stationerity of objectives. What's 00:08:09.040 --> 00:08:13.117 happening is the systems are trained against objectives. But to do this kind 00:08:13.200 --> 00:08:16.877 of creativity that FE is talking about, you need to be able to change the 00:08:16.960 --> 00:08:18.637 objectives as you're doing them. 00:08:18.720 --> 00:08:22.397 >> We've seen this past year, I think GPT 00:08:22.480 --> 00:08:27.117 5 Pro reach an IQ of like 148, which is 00:08:27.200 --> 00:08:28.477 extraordinary. And of course, there is 00:08:28.560 --> 00:08:31.757 no ceiling on on this. I mean, it it 00:08:31.840 --> 00:08:34.557 loses meaning at some point, but the 00:08:34.640 --> 00:08:37.037 ability for every human on the planet to 00:08:37.120 --> 00:08:39.437 have an Einstein level, not in the 00:08:39.520 --> 00:08:41.757 creativity side, but intelligence side 00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:45.997 in their pocket changes the game for 8 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:48.717 billion humans. And now with Starlink 00:08:48.800 --> 00:08:53.677 and with, you know, $50 smartphones, uh, it's possible that every single person 00:08:53.760 --> 00:08:58.397 on the planet has this kind of capability. Add to that humanoid robots. 00:08:58.480 --> 00:09:00.237 Add to that, you know, a whole slew of 00:09:00.320 --> 00:09:02.797 other exponential technologies. And the 00:09:02.880 --> 00:09:05.437 commentary is we're heading towards a a 00:09:05.520 --> 00:09:08.157 post scarcity society, 00:09:08.240 --> 00:09:10.877 right? Do you believe in that vision? 00:09:10.960 --> 00:09:13.037 Feet, 00:09:13.120 --> 00:09:14.957 >> I do think we have to be a little 00:09:15.040 --> 00:09:18.077 careful. I I know that we are combining 00:09:18.160 --> 00:09:20.877 some of the hottest words from Silicon 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:23.837 Valley from uh AI, super intelligence, 00:09:23.920 --> 00:09:26.317 humanoid robots and all that. To be 00:09:26.400 --> 00:09:28.797 honest, I think robotics has a long way 00:09:28.880 --> 00:09:32.077 to go. I I think uh we have to be a 00:09:32.160 --> 00:09:34.237 little bit careful with the projection 00:09:34.320 --> 00:09:37.917 of robotics. I I think the the ability 00:09:38.000 --> 00:09:41.837 the dexterity of human level uh 00:09:41.920 --> 00:09:46.237 manipulation is um is um 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:50.957 you know we we have to wait a lot longer 00:09:51.040 --> 00:09:54.157 to to get it. So, are we entering post 00:09:54.240 --> 00:09:58.840 uh scarcity? Um, 00:10:00.160 --> 00:10:04.077 I don't know. I I actually I'm not as uh 00:10:04.160 --> 00:10:07.917 bullish as a typical Silicon Valley uh 00:10:08.000 --> 00:10:11.437 person because I think we're entering I 00:10:11.520 --> 00:10:14.557 absolutely believe AI will be augmenting 00:10:14.640 --> 00:10:18.157 human uh capabilities in incredibly 00:10:18.240 --> 00:10:22.077 profound ways. But I think we we will 00:10:22.160 --> 00:10:25.277 continue to see that the collaboration 00:10:25.360 --> 00:10:28.877 between humans and AI will be the most 00:10:28.960 --> 00:10:32.717 productive and fruitful way of of doing things. 00:10:32.800 --> 00:10:35.837 >> So the projection is that AI is going to 00:10:35.920 --> 00:10:38.637 generate as much as 15 trillion in 00:10:38.720 --> 00:10:42.157 economic value by 2030. Uh the idea that 00:10:42.240 --> 00:10:46.557 shifting the foundation of national wealth from capital to labor to 00:10:46.640 --> 00:10:49.037 computational intelligence. So what's 00:10:49.120 --> 00:10:51.917 that implication, Eric, for the global 00:10:52.000 --> 00:10:56.077 economy? How are we going to see redistribution, 00:10:56.160 --> 00:10:59.757 if you would, of wealth or of capabilities? Are we going to see a 00:10:59.840 --> 00:11:03.757 leveling of the field between nation states, or are we going to see runaway 00:11:03.840 --> 00:11:07.837 winners? >> So in your abundance hypothesis, which 00:11:07.920 --> 00:11:10.637 we've talked a lot about, there may be a 00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:13.837 flaw in the argument because part of the 00:11:13.920 --> 00:11:18.077 abundance argument is that it's abundance for everyone. 00:11:18.160 --> 00:11:21.677 But there's plenty of evidence that these technologies have network effects 00:11:21.760 --> 00:11:25.757 which concentrates to a small number of winners. So you could for example 00:11:25.840 --> 00:11:30.637 imagine a small number of countries getting all those benefits in those 00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:34.237 countries. You could imagine a small number of firms and people getting those 00:11:34.320 --> 00:11:38.397 benefits. Those are public policy question. There's no question the wealth 00:11:38.480 --> 00:11:40.477 will be created because the wealth comes 00:11:40.560 --> 00:11:43.677 from efficiency. And every company that 00:11:43.760 --> 00:11:46.957 has implemented AI has seen huge gains. 00:11:47.040 --> 00:11:49.117 Think about here we are in Saudi Arabia. 00:11:49.200 --> 00:11:51.037 You have all of this oil distribution, 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:53.357 all the oil networks, all the losses. AI 00:11:53.440 --> 00:11:56.317 can easily improve that by 10% 20%. 00:11:56.400 --> 00:11:58.557 Those are huge numbers for this country. 00:11:58.640 --> 00:12:00.877 If you look in biology and medicine and 00:12:00.960 --> 00:12:05.917 drug discovery, much faster drug approval cycles, much lower cost trials, 00:12:06.000 --> 00:12:09.997 look at materials, much more efficient and easier to build materials. the 00:12:10.080 --> 00:12:12.797 companies that adopt AI quickly get a 00:12:12.880 --> 00:12:15.197 disproportionate return. The question 00:12:15.280 --> 00:12:18.637 is, is are those gains uniform, which 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:21.117 would be our hope, or in my view more 00:12:21.200 --> 00:12:25.917 likely largely centered around early adopters, network effects, well-run 00:12:26.000 --> 00:12:27.677 countries, and perhaps capital. 00:12:27.760 --> 00:12:31.197 >> But you could imagine still that we're going to see autonomous cars in which 00:12:31.280 --> 00:12:35.517 the ownership of a car is four times, let me put it the other way, uh being in 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:39.997 an autonomous vehicle is four times cheaper than owning a car. We can see AI 00:12:40.080 --> 00:12:44.157 giving us the best physicians, the best health care for free in the same way 00:12:44.240 --> 00:12:48.077 that Google gave us access to information for free. We will see a 00:12:48.160 --> 00:12:50.797 massive demonetization in so much of our 00:12:50.880 --> 00:12:53.437 world. I think that will be available to 00:12:53.520 --> 00:12:56.877 anyone with a smartphone and a decent 00:12:56.960 --> 00:13:02.077 bandwidth connectivity. Is that still not what you think will 00:13:02.160 --> 00:13:05.597 happen? Do you think there's a reason something that would stop that level of 00:13:05.680 --> 00:13:08.477 distribution of of those services which 00:13:08.560 --> 00:13:10.477 we spend a lot of our money on today? 00:13:10.560 --> 00:13:13.197 >> I do think AI democratizes that. I 00:13:13.280 --> 00:13:15.357 totally agree with you. I think whether 00:13:15.440 --> 00:13:18.157 it's healthcare or transportation or 00:13:18.240 --> 00:13:21.997 knowledge AI will will uh democratize 00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:25.517 massively. But I agree with Eric that uh 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:28.477 this increased global uh productivity 00:13:28.560 --> 00:13:31.197 does not necessarily translate to shared 00:13:31.280 --> 00:13:34.317 prosperity. Shared prosperity is a 00:13:34.400 --> 00:13:37.357 deeper social problem. It involves 00:13:37.440 --> 00:13:41.517 policy. It involves you know geopolit uh 00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:46.477 politics. It involves distribution and that's a different problem from the 00:13:46.560 --> 00:13:48.477 capability of the technology. So what's 00:13:48.560 --> 00:13:50.317 your advice to the country leaders that 00:13:50.400 --> 00:13:55.197 are here uh that are seeing ASI as a 00:13:55.280 --> 00:13:58.877 future for someone else and not for themselves? What should they be doing? I 00:13:58.960 --> 00:14:03.117 mean this is the crit the speed at which is deploying. They don't have a lot of 00:14:03.200 --> 00:14:06.797 time to make critical decisions. Well, it's it's worth describing where we are 00:14:06.880 --> 00:14:11.357 now in the United States because of the depth of our capital markets and because 00:14:11.440 --> 00:14:14.317 of the extraordinary chips that are available in the Taiwanese 00:14:14.400 --> 00:14:16.717 manufacturers, TSMC in particular, 00:14:16.800 --> 00:14:21.757 America has this huge lead in building these what are called hyperscalers. 00:14:21.840 --> 00:14:25.037 If there's going to be super intelligence, it's going to come from 00:14:25.120 --> 00:14:28.077 those efforts. That's a big deal. If 00:14:28.160 --> 00:14:30.637 there is super intelligence, imagine a 00:14:30.720 --> 00:14:32.637 company like Google inventing this, for 00:14:32.720 --> 00:14:35.757 example. I am obviously biased. Um, and 00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:40.797 what's the value of being able to solve every problem that humans can't solve? 00:14:40.880 --> 00:14:45.357 It's infinite. >> Sure. >> So, that's the goal, right? China is a 00:14:45.440 --> 00:14:49.597 second. Doesn't have the capital markets, doesn't have the chips, and the 00:14:49.680 --> 00:14:52.077 other countries are not anywhere near. 00:14:52.160 --> 00:14:56.477 Saudi has done a good job of partnering with America. Uh, and the hyperscalers 00:14:56.560 --> 00:14:58.717 will be located here and in the UAE. 00:14:58.800 --> 00:15:03.277 That's a good strategy. So that's a a good example of how you partner. You 00:15:03.360 --> 00:15:04.797 figure out which side you're on. 00:15:04.880 --> 00:15:06.397 Hopefully it's the United States. And 00:15:06.480 --> 00:15:09.437 you work with the US firms. I do think 00:15:09.520 --> 00:15:12.957 countries all should invest invest in 00:15:13.040 --> 00:15:15.917 their own human capital, invest in 00:15:16.000 --> 00:15:19.117 partnerships and and invest in its own 00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:22.477 uh technological stack as well as the 00:15:22.560 --> 00:15:25.437 business ecosystem. This is uh as Eric 00:15:25.520 --> 00:15:28.317 said it depends on the strength and uh 00:15:28.400 --> 00:15:30.637 particularity of the different countries 00:15:30.720 --> 00:15:34.317 but I think not investing in AI it would 00:15:34.400 --> 00:15:37.677 be macroscopically the wrong thing to do. 00:15:37.760 --> 00:15:40.317 >> So under the thesis that that investment 00:15:40.400 --> 00:15:45.117 involves building out data centers in your nation. 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:46.957 Do you think every country should be 00:15:47.040 --> 00:15:49.517 building out a data center that it has 00:15:49.600 --> 00:15:53.117 sovereign AI running on? 00:15:53.200 --> 00:15:55.277 >> Every country is a very sweeping 00:15:55.360 --> 00:16:00.317 statement. I I I do think um it depends. 00:16:00.400 --> 00:16:03.997 It depends. I I think obviously for a 00:16:04.080 --> 00:16:06.557 region like this absolutely where you 00:16:06.640 --> 00:16:10.157 know oil uh energy is cheaper and uh and 00:16:10.240 --> 00:16:12.397 such an important region in the world. 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:14.637 But if we're talking about smaller 00:16:14.720 --> 00:16:17.357 countries, I don't know if every single 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:19.517 country can afford to build data 00:16:19.600 --> 00:16:22.957 centers. But there are other um other 00:16:23.040 --> 00:16:26.637 areas of investment, right? >> But let me give you an example. Let's 00:16:26.720 --> 00:16:27.997 pick Europe. It's easy to pick on 00:16:28.080 --> 00:16:31.517 Europe. Energy costs are high, right? 00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:35.117 Financing costs are not low. So the odds 00:16:35.200 --> 00:16:37.197 of Europe being able to build very large 00:16:37.280 --> 00:16:40.077 data centers is extremely low. But they 00:16:40.160 --> 00:16:44.717 can partner with countries where they can do it. Uh France for example did a 00:16:44.800 --> 00:16:48.717 partnership with Abu Dhabi. So there's an there are examples of that. So I 00:16:48.800 --> 00:16:52.157 think if you take a global view and you figure out who your partners are, you 00:16:52.240 --> 00:16:54.717 have a better chance. The the one that I 00:16:54.800 --> 00:16:59.597 worry a lot about is Africa. And the reason is how does Africa benefit from 00:16:59.680 --> 00:17:03.837 this? So there's obviously some benefit of globalization, better crop yields and 00:17:03.920 --> 00:17:08.637 so forth. But without stable governments, strong universities, major 00:17:08.720 --> 00:17:10.717 industrial structures, which Africa with 00:17:10.800 --> 00:17:12.877 some exceptions lacks, it's going to 00:17:12.960 --> 00:17:15.757 lag. It's been lagging for years. How do 00:17:15.840 --> 00:17:17.837 we get ahead of that? I don't think that 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:20.157 problem is solved. 00:17:20.240 --> 00:17:23.277 We've seen incredible progress with AI 00:17:23.360 --> 00:17:26.477 today effectively beginning what people 00:17:26.560 --> 00:17:29.517 call solving math. 00:17:29.600 --> 00:17:31.757 that potentially tips physics, 00:17:31.840 --> 00:17:34.397 chemistry, biology. 00:17:34.480 --> 00:17:37.277 And we have the potential, my time frame 00:17:37.360 --> 00:17:39.197 is the next 5 years, others may think 00:17:39.280 --> 00:17:42.317 longer to be in a position to solve 00:17:42.400 --> 00:17:45.997 everything where the level of discovery 00:17:46.080 --> 00:17:48.877 and the level of new product creation, 00:17:48.960 --> 00:17:52.557 new materials, uh, biological, uh, 00:17:52.640 --> 00:17:55.277 therapeutics and such begins to grow at 00:17:55.360 --> 00:18:00.237 a super exponential rate. How do you think about that world in five years, 00:18:00.320 --> 00:18:01.277 Eric? 00:18:01.360 --> 00:18:03.917 >> So, um, first I think it's likely to 00:18:04.000 --> 00:18:07.517 occur and the reason technically is that 00:18:07.600 --> 00:18:09.837 the all of the large language models are 00:18:09.920 --> 00:18:12.477 essentially doing next word prediction. 00:18:12.560 --> 00:18:15.437 And if you have a limited v vocabulary, 00:18:15.520 --> 00:18:17.677 which math is, and you have a and 00:18:17.760 --> 00:18:20.557 software is, and also cyber attacks are, 00:18:20.640 --> 00:18:23.757 I'm sorry to say, you can make progress 00:18:23.840 --> 00:18:28.877 because they're scale free. All you have to do is just do more. So if you do 00:18:28.960 --> 00:18:32.077 software, you can verify it. You can do more software. If you do math, you can 00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:34.077 verify it, do more math. You're not 00:18:34.160 --> 00:18:36.797 constrained by real reality, physics and 00:18:36.880 --> 00:18:39.277 biology. So it's likely in the next few 00:18:39.360 --> 00:18:43.837 years that in math and software, you'll see the greatest of gains. And we all 00:18:43.920 --> 00:18:45.997 understand your point that math is at 00:18:46.080 --> 00:18:48.237 the basis of everything else. I think 00:18:48.320 --> 00:18:51.357 it's a a there Fifi is the expert on the 00:18:51.440 --> 00:18:56.557 real world. there's probably a longer period of time to get the real world 00:18:56.640 --> 00:18:59.997 right, which is why she founded the company of which I'm an investor. Do you 00:19:00.080 --> 00:19:03.997 want to talk about that? >> Yeah. Um, well, first of all, I actually 00:19:04.080 --> 00:19:06.477 want to respectfully disagree. Okay. I 00:19:06.560 --> 00:19:09.037 do not think that we will solve all the 00:19:09.120 --> 00:19:14.397 problems, fundamental math and physics and chemistry problems in uh in five years. 00:19:14.480 --> 00:19:15.837 >> We're going to take a bet on that one. 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:19.517 >> Yes. So, FII14. >> Okay, you got it. 00:19:19.600 --> 00:19:22.157 >> We should take a bet on that. Um, part 00:19:22.240 --> 00:19:25.837 of humanity's greatest capability is to 00:19:25.920 --> 00:19:28.237 actually come up with new problems. You 00:19:28.320 --> 00:19:30.957 know, as Albert Einstein said, uh, most 00:19:31.040 --> 00:19:33.837 of science is asking the right question 00:19:33.920 --> 00:19:35.917 and we will continue to find new 00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:40.957 questions to ask and there are so many fundamental questions that in our 00:19:41.040 --> 00:19:42.717 science and math that we haven't 00:19:42.800 --> 00:19:45.437 answered. Feet your new company World 00:19:45.520 --> 00:19:48.877 Labs uh creating extra extraordinary uh 00:19:48.960 --> 00:19:52.237 persistent uh you know photorealistic 00:19:52.320 --> 00:19:55.517 worlds. Are you expecting that we are 00:19:55.600 --> 00:19:59.357 going to be spending a lot more of our time in virtual worlds? I mean my 00:19:59.440 --> 00:20:02.877 14-year-old boys right now are spending way too much time in their virtual 00:20:02.960 --> 00:20:05.597 gaming worlds. But is this what we're 00:20:05.680 --> 00:20:09.837 going to do in a you know uh 10 20 years 00:20:09.920 --> 00:20:12.637 in a post ASI world where we don't have 00:20:12.720 --> 00:20:17.357 to work as much we have a lot more free time our robots maybe by then are 00:20:17.440 --> 00:20:20.077 serving us are we going to live in the virtual worlds 00:20:20.160 --> 00:20:22.477 >> great question so so what we are doing 00:20:22.560 --> 00:20:24.957 is building large world models that's a 00:20:25.040 --> 00:20:27.517 problem that's after large language 00:20:27.600 --> 00:20:30.477 models that humans have the ability to 00:20:30.560 --> 00:20:32.397 have the kind of spatial intelligence 00:20:32.480 --> 00:20:34.877 that we can understand the physical 3D 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:39.597 world we can imagine um any kind of of 00:20:39.680 --> 00:20:42.477 uh 3D worlds and be able to reason and 00:20:42.560 --> 00:20:45.837 interact with it. So we do not yet up 00:20:45.920 --> 00:20:48.797 till what our company has been doing we 00:20:48.880 --> 00:20:51.197 do not have such a world model. So World 00:20:51.280 --> 00:20:53.837 Labs the company I'm uh I'm uh I 00:20:53.920 --> 00:20:56.957 co-founded and I'm CEO in is just 00:20:57.040 --> 00:21:00.797 created the first large world model. So 00:21:00.880 --> 00:21:03.277 the future I see I actually agree with 00:21:03.360 --> 00:21:08.877 you that we will be spending more time in um in the multiverse 00:21:08.960 --> 00:21:09.277 >> yes 00:21:09.360 --> 00:21:12.957 >> of uh of the virtual worlds. It doesn't 00:21:13.040 --> 00:21:15.917 mean that the reality the real world 00:21:16.000 --> 00:21:18.637 this world this physical world is gone. 00:21:18.720 --> 00:21:24.237 It's just so much of our productivity, our entertainment, our communication, 00:21:24.320 --> 00:21:25.117 >> our education, 00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:28.877 >> our education are going to be a hybrid 00:21:28.960 --> 00:21:31.997 of virtual and physical world. Think 00:21:32.080 --> 00:21:34.797 about uh you know, think about in 00:21:34.880 --> 00:21:38.157 medicine, you know, how we conduct 00:21:38.240 --> 00:21:41.037 surgery is very much going to be a 00:21:41.120 --> 00:21:44.077 hybrid world of augmented reality, 00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:46.237 virtual reality as well as physical 00:21:46.320 --> 00:21:48.717 reality. And we can do that in every 00:21:48.800 --> 00:21:51.917 single sector. So, humanity is using 00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:54.877 these large world models are going to 00:21:54.960 --> 00:21:58.637 enter the mo uh infinite universe. Um, 00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:01.197 >> and I had a chance to see uh your model 00:22:01.280 --> 00:22:03.037 backstage. It's amazing. If you haven't 00:22:03.120 --> 00:22:06.397 yet, go check out Fee's World Labs. Uh, 00:22:06.480 --> 00:22:08.557 the technology she's building is going 00:22:08.640 --> 00:22:12.397 to be world changing. So, uh, my last 00:22:12.480 --> 00:22:14.797 question here is about human capital. So 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:16.957 super intelligence has been called the 00:22:17.040 --> 00:22:20.157 last invention humanity will ever make. 00:22:20.240 --> 00:22:24.477 Uh as it could automate eventually every process. We'll see if it automates 00:22:24.560 --> 00:22:26.157 discovery. We'll see how much of 00:22:26.240 --> 00:22:29.757 creation automates. But in a world where 00:22:29.840 --> 00:22:31.917 the best strategy, science and economic 00:22:32.000 --> 00:22:35.037 decisions are being made by machines at 00:22:35.120 --> 00:22:37.357 some point. What is the ultimate 00:22:37.440 --> 00:22:39.677 irreplaceable function of human 00:22:39.760 --> 00:22:43.117 intellect and leadership? What are 00:22:43.200 --> 00:22:46.637 humans innately going to be left with in 00:22:46.720 --> 00:22:48.637 10, 20 years? 00:22:48.720 --> 00:22:51.117 >> Well, in 20 years, we will enjoy 00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:53.837 watching each other compete in human 00:22:53.920 --> 00:22:56.957 sports, knowing that the robots can beat 00:22:57.040 --> 00:23:01.677 us 100% of the time. >> But if you go to Formula 1, you're going 00:23:01.760 --> 00:23:04.957 to want to see a human driver, not an automated car. 00:23:05.040 --> 00:23:07.997 >> Yes. So humans will always be interested 00:23:08.080 --> 00:23:11.037 in what other humans can do and we'll 00:23:11.120 --> 00:23:13.917 have our own contests and perhaps the 00:23:14.000 --> 00:23:15.357 supercomputers will have their own 00:23:15.440 --> 00:23:19.517 contests too. But the your reasoning 00:23:19.600 --> 00:23:22.717 presumes many many things. It presumes a 00:23:22.800 --> 00:23:24.797 breakout of intelligence in computers 00:23:24.880 --> 00:23:27.757 that's humanlike. Unlikely probably a 00:23:27.840 --> 00:23:32.237 different kind of intelligence. It it presumes that humans are largely not 00:23:32.320 --> 00:23:34.237 involved in that process. highly 00:23:34.320 --> 00:23:36.797 unlikely. All of the evidence and fee 00:23:36.880 --> 00:23:39.357 said this very well is going to be human 00:23:39.440 --> 00:23:42.477 and computer interaction that basically 00:23:42.560 --> 00:23:45.277 we will all have so going back to what 00:23:45.360 --> 00:23:47.597 you said about 8 8 million people 8 00:23:47.680 --> 00:23:49.917 billion people with smartphones with 00:23:50.000 --> 00:23:52.717 Einstein in their phone the smart people 00:23:52.800 --> 00:23:55.117 of which there's a lot will use that to 00:23:55.200 --> 00:23:57.677 make themselves more productive the win 00:23:57.760 --> 00:24:00.397 will be teameming between a human and 00:24:00.480 --> 00:24:02.637 their judgment and a supercomput and 00:24:02.720 --> 00:24:04.877 what it can think and remember that 00:24:04.960 --> 00:24:09.757 There is a limit to this craze that supercomputers and super intelligence 00:24:09.840 --> 00:24:13.357 need energy. >> So perhaps what will happen at some 00:24:13.440 --> 00:24:17.837 point is the supercomputers will say huh we need more energy and these humans are 00:24:17.920 --> 00:24:21.837 not building fusion fast enough. So we'll accelerate it. We'll come up with 00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:26.157 a new form of energy. Now this is science fiction but you could imagine at 00:24:26.240 --> 00:24:28.077 some point the objective function of the 00:24:28.160 --> 00:24:31.517 system says what do I need? I need more 00:24:31.600 --> 00:24:36.157 chips or more energy and I'll design it myself. Now, that would be a great 00:24:36.240 --> 00:24:37.517 moment to see. >> I agree. 00:24:37.600 --> 00:24:41.277 >> I I I do want to say it's so important 00:24:41.360 --> 00:24:44.957 as we talk about AGI at ASI that the 00:24:45.040 --> 00:24:46.957 most important thing that we keep in 00:24:47.040 --> 00:24:51.117 mind is human dignity and human agency. 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:53.837 Our world, unless we are going to wipe 00:24:53.920 --> 00:24:56.317 out this species, which we're not, has 00:24:56.400 --> 00:24:58.557 to be human- centered. Whether it's 00:24:58.640 --> 00:25:01.357 automation or collaboration, it needs to 00:25:01.440 --> 00:25:04.077 put human agency and dignity and human 00:25:04.160 --> 00:25:06.557 well-being in the center of all this. 00:25:06.640 --> 00:25:08.477 Whether it's technology, business, 00:25:08.560 --> 00:25:11.037 product, policy or any of that. And I 00:25:11.120 --> 00:25:14.797 think we cannot lose our focus uh from 00:25:14.880 --> 00:25:18.317 that. >> Amen. Everybody, ladies and gentlemen, 00:25:18.400 --> 00:25:21.117 FA Fa, Eric Schmidt, thank you all. 00:25:21.200 --> 00:25:26.157 Thank you. >> Every week, my team and I study the top 00:25:26.240 --> 00:25:29.917 10 technology metat trends that will transform industries over the decade 00:25:30.000 --> 00:25:33.757 ahead. I cover trends ranging from humanoid robotics, AGI, and quantum 00:25:33.840 --> 00:25:37.917 computing to transport, energy, longevity, and more. 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