WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.877 So first of all, just a moment on AI. So you asked a question earlier which is 00:00:02.960 --> 00:00:05.517 like is is there like a there's a traditionalist view of like we need to 00:00:05.600 --> 00:00:08.437 go get the jobs that used to exist. We need to somehow bring them back. And and 00:00:08.520 --> 00:00:11.117 you know, and here you get into this argument of like well, you've got you 00:00:11.200 --> 00:00:13.797 know, Chinese laborers working for a dollar an hour or whatever. Like you're 00:00:13.880 --> 00:00:16.237 not going to get those jobs back. It's just not cost-effective to bring those 00:00:16.320 --> 00:00:19.557 jobs back. What we have though is we're we're at this very specific and 00:00:19.640 --> 00:00:22.397 important and fundamental and I think profound turning point in technology 00:00:22.480 --> 00:00:25.837 which is the rise of AI. Um and I would say that the good news, let's make the 00:00:25.920 --> 00:00:29.837 panel optimistic. The good news is the US is like by far the leader on AI. Now, 00:00:29.920 --> 00:00:32.557 by the way, we need to decide whether we want to be the leader in AI cuz there's 00:00:32.640 --> 00:00:35.277 like a lot of forces in the US and in the US government that are trying to 00:00:35.360 --> 00:00:38.237 prevent that from happening. >> But there's over a thousand laws at the 00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:40.677 state level we've been trying to fight and stop that would screw this up, 00:00:40.760 --> 00:00:42.477 right? So there's a lot of people who are against this. 00:00:42.560 --> 00:00:44.037 >> California state state government almost 00:00:44.120 --> 00:00:47.277 passed a law to outlaw AI in California uh six months ago which which is an 00:00:47.360 --> 00:00:48.677 indication of how crazy California is. 00:00:48.760 --> 00:00:52.397 But yes, that we we we can it's like everything else. We can have it if we 00:00:52.480 --> 00:00:55.597 want it. Uh these are all choices. But like AI's happening and AI's only 00:00:55.680 --> 00:00:58.357 happening in two places. Like it's only US versus China. There's a whole 00:00:58.440 --> 00:01:01.757 competition thing there. But like the US is like very powerful on this. And then 00:01:01.840 --> 00:01:05.037 by the way, US is benefiting a lot cuz Europe has basically made AI illegal. 00:01:05.120 --> 00:01:07.997 Like they're they're regulating themselves to death. And so the smart AI 00:01:08.080 --> 00:01:09.757 people in Europe are moving to the US. 00:01:09.840 --> 00:01:11.797 Um and so like the the US really is 00:01:11.880 --> 00:01:16.997 ground zero for AI. Um today AI is software, right? And so when you use AI, 00:01:17.080 --> 00:01:20.197 you use ChatGPT. It's an app on your phone, right? It it doesn't there's no 00:01:20.280 --> 00:01:22.597 manufacturing kind of component, you know, really to you know, people are 00:01:22.680 --> 00:01:25.397 building giant data centers. But you know, it's not a huge generator of like 00:01:25.480 --> 00:01:28.837 middle class jobs. Um but there's another turn on AI that's coming which 00:01:28.920 --> 00:01:33.557 is the turn to the turn to embodied physical AI which is robotics, right? Um 00:01:33.640 --> 00:01:35.957 and this is a transition that has already happened. It's already actually 00:01:36.040 --> 00:01:39.877 happened in drones uh where drones went from being human piloted to actually be 00:01:39.960 --> 00:01:41.277 auto you know, autonomously piloted. 00:01:41.360 --> 00:01:44.397 They they now fly themselves. Um it's a transition that's happening in 00:01:44.480 --> 00:01:47.517 cars right now, right? Where cars went from, you know, basically purely 00:01:47.600 --> 00:01:50.997 physical products to now basically being rolling computers that drive themselves. 00:01:51.080 --> 00:01:54.437 And if you if you haven't tried this yet, if go to go to if you ever have the 00:01:54.520 --> 00:01:57.817 misfortune of finding yourself in San Francisco, uh take a Waymo. 00:01:57.900 --> 00:02:00.477 >> [snorts] >> It's amazing to live in a cyberpunk 00:02:00.560 --> 00:02:03.797 future reality where you're in literally a state of the art self-driving car 00:02:03.880 --> 00:02:06.317 that's literally out of the Jetsons driving past people who are dying of 00:02:06.400 --> 00:02:09.557 fentanyl overdoses on the sidewalk. I recommend having the experience at least 00:02:09.640 --> 00:02:14.837 once. But the self-driving car really does work. Like it's really happening. And 00:02:14.920 --> 00:02:17.597 then what's going to happen you've all probably seen you know Elon has this 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:19.517 Optimus robot that he's building. 00:02:19.600 --> 00:02:23.837 These humanoid robots like the general purpose robotics thing is going 00:02:23.920 --> 00:02:26.357 to happen and it's going to happen in the next decade and it's going to happen 00:02:26.440 --> 00:02:29.877 at giant scale. I I think there's a plausible argument which Elon also 00:02:29.960 --> 00:02:32.237 believes that robotics is going to be the biggest industry in the history of 00:02:32.320 --> 00:02:34.037 the planet. It's going to be gigantic. 00:02:34.120 --> 00:02:36.317 There's going to be billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of robots 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:38.717 of all shapes, sizes, descriptions running around doing all kinds of 00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:42.837 things. Those robots need to get designed and built, right? And so my 00:02:42.920 --> 00:02:45.677 view is you know we don't try to get the old manufacturing jobs back. What we 00:02:45.760 --> 00:02:49.237 what we should do is lean hard into the manufacturing jobs of the future, which 00:02:49.320 --> 00:02:52.797 is designing and building all of these new things, right? By the way which 00:02:52.880 --> 00:02:56.637 includes drones and cars, right? And robots. 00:02:56.720 --> 00:02:59.237 And you know we shouldn't be building manufacturing lines that have people 00:02:59.320 --> 00:03:01.877 sitting on a rubber mat for 10 hours screwing screws in by hand, but we 00:03:01.960 --> 00:03:04.757 should be building you know what Elon calls he calls them alien dreadnought 00:03:04.840 --> 00:03:07.357 factories, right? Which is like these super sophisticated factories with like 00:03:07.440 --> 00:03:10.517 tons of robotics. But you can imagine thousands and 00:03:10.600 --> 00:03:13.037 thousands of different categories of industrial production that have to 00:03:13.120 --> 00:03:16.197 happen all across the US in order to make this happen. 00:03:16.280 --> 00:03:19.877 And and would cause just like enormous economic growth throughout the country. 00:03:19.960 --> 00:03:23.037 We'd get a huge payoff from all the tech investment that that the coasts are 00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:26.637 making, but we generate many tens or hundreds of millions of jobs in the 00:03:26.720 --> 00:03:30.317 countryside. And then the US would would lead. It would be you know be the third 00:03:30.400 --> 00:03:32.477 industrial or fourth industrial revolution. We would we would lead in 00:03:32.560 --> 00:03:34.597 the development of all these new things. 00:03:34.680 --> 00:03:37.197 And then you get to the national security side of this which is if you 00:03:37.280 --> 00:03:41.277 don't do this you're living in a world of Chinese robots everywhere. 00:03:41.360 --> 00:03:44.797 And that has you know very profound consequences for let's just say yeah 00:03:44.880 --> 00:03:46.717 profound consequences. >> I know you've been reading about and 00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:49.557 President Trump's been reading about from 100 years before which is which is 00:03:49.640 --> 00:03:53.477 William McKinley. William McKinley of course was a staunch protectionist at 00:03:53.560 --> 00:03:56.477 first. Uh and and is this historic historical 00:03:56.560 --> 00:03:59.397 example of how to revitalize American industry relevant today? Is it relevant 00:03:59.480 --> 00:04:03.517 to everything we're doing in AI and in energy? Like, how do you think about this? 00:04:03.600 --> 00:04:05.157 >> Yeah, so I've been doing my best to kind 00:04:05.240 --> 00:04:07.797 of spin up in the history of this. And so there there was something in the 19th 00:04:07.880 --> 00:04:11.557 century, uh actually originally created by Alexander Hamilton uh when he was 00:04:11.640 --> 00:04:15.637 Treasury Secretary, called the American system. Um and and and really what what 00:04:15.720 --> 00:04:18.477 they were and this is even, you know, this is like 80 years before McKinley, 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:21.437 um 90 years before McKinley. Uh you know, what they were dealing with was 00:04:21.520 --> 00:04:23.277 the the the the British Empire, right? 00:04:23.360 --> 00:04:26.197 The UK was the preeminent industrial power. You know, they they were the 00:04:26.280 --> 00:04:30.837 first like giant industrial power uh on on on planet Earth. Um and it had built 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:34.117 this, you know, very commanding economic, technological, military uh 00:04:34.200 --> 00:04:36.357 position. And of course, America, you know, at the at the time of the 00:04:36.440 --> 00:04:39.317 revolution was mostly farmland. Um and then there was this raging debate 00:04:39.400 --> 00:04:42.157 between Hamilton and Jefferson as to whether you you'd want America to be an 00:04:42.240 --> 00:04:45.517 industrial, you know, kind of urban, financialized power, which is what 00:04:45.600 --> 00:04:48.477 Hamilton wanted, or of kind of a rural, you know, kind of rural farming 00:04:48.560 --> 00:04:51.237 aristocratic uh power, which is what Jefferson wanted. And you know, and 00:04:51.320 --> 00:04:54.317 Hamilton won that debate. And so that led to what was called the American 00:04:54.400 --> 00:04:57.997 system. The American system led to, you know, the creation of the United States 00:04:58.080 --> 00:05:01.797 as an industrial power that developed over the course of the 19th century. But 00:05:01.880 --> 00:05:05.677 it really took off at the tail end of the 19th century in what was called the 00:05:05.760 --> 00:05:08.837 what's called the Second Industrial Revolution. And so between, call it 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:12.517 1870, 1880, and like 1930, basically 00:05:12.600 --> 00:05:16.797 everything we view today as the modern world um was basically invented uh then. 00:05:16.880 --> 00:05:20.357 And and like you could almost look around the room here today, and you 00:05:20.440 --> 00:05:23.477 could say basically every piece of physical infrastructure, everything 00:05:23.560 --> 00:05:26.997 around us, you know, literally everything. The airplane, um you know, 00:05:27.080 --> 00:05:31.117 manufacturing techniques to be able to make um uh to be able to make uh you know, 00:05:31.200 --> 00:05:33.397 modern modern, you know, glassware, 00:05:33.480 --> 00:05:36.397 um uh at scale, um uh air conditioning, 00:05:36.480 --> 00:05:40.637 um you know, television, radio, uh you know, auto uh the automobiles we drove 00:05:40.720 --> 00:05:45.237 to get here, um you know, it it all was a uh the the result of the Second 00:05:45.320 --> 00:05:48.237 Industrial Revolution. And then the McKinley presidency was right in the 00:05:48.320 --> 00:05:49.837 middle of that of of of that period. 00:05:49.920 --> 00:05:53.077 It's really when the whole thing catalyzed. Um and so, it was really the 00:05:53.160 --> 00:05:55.917 point at which America became the the the world's industrial superpower. And 00:05:56.000 --> 00:05:58.957 then, of course, that led to America being able to become a huge player in 00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:02.357 both World War I and World War II, you know, ultimately, you know, we you know, 00:06:02.440 --> 00:06:05.477 you you know, winning winning World War II and and and becoming the uh you know, 00:06:05.560 --> 00:06:08.317 the arsenal of democracy. They all kind of flowed out of that 00:06:08.400 --> 00:06:11.357 period. And and so, and and the and the the American system is something that 00:06:11.440 --> 00:06:13.517 people really don't like to talk about these days cuz it was heavily 00:06:13.600 --> 00:06:17.397 protectionist. Um and the the whole theory of it was you you don't 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:21.437 industrialize uh just with like a single technology or a single company. You 00:06:21.520 --> 00:06:24.917 industrialize by having an entire ecosystem, right? You industrialize by 00:06:25.000 --> 00:06:27.277 having, you know, not just three car companies, but by having all the 00:06:27.360 --> 00:06:31.557 thousands of parts suppliers that make all the parts for the cars. Um and so, 00:06:31.640 --> 00:06:34.757 the the Brits had done this. They had run a very uh heavily protectionist uh 00:06:34.840 --> 00:06:38.877 program to be able to boot up the first industrial revolution in the UK. You 00:06:38.960 --> 00:06:42.597 know, they then advocated for free trade when exports became more important. Uh 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:45.637 McKinley was the inheritor of the American system. And so, he was heavily 00:06:45.720 --> 00:06:48.317 protectionist to build up the second industrial revolution. And then, he 00:06:48.400 --> 00:06:51.437 actually switched to become more of an advocate for free trade because his 00:06:51.520 --> 00:06:54.237 American exporters were becoming more successful. They needed exports. They 00:06:54.320 --> 00:06:56.117 needed They needed foreign markets. 00:06:56.200 --> 00:06:59.717 Um and then, by the way, um in the 20th century, basically, every industrial 00:06:59.800 --> 00:07:02.477 revolution in every other country that has worked in the last 100 years 00:07:02.560 --> 00:07:04.077 basically follows that model as well. 00:07:04.160 --> 00:07:07.077 So, you know, it's it's the same thing Germany did. It's the same thing Japan 00:07:07.160 --> 00:07:10.037 did. It's the same thing Korea did. It's the same thing China uh is doing right 00:07:10.120 --> 00:07:14.677 now. China's basically been running the American system playbook um in China. 00:07:14.760 --> 00:07:17.957 And so, and then, this this goes to tariff policy. And like, I and and and 00:07:18.040 --> 00:07:20.197 and I'm not here to like make an argument like it's like in favor of 00:07:20.280 --> 00:07:23.437 tariffs, but more of like a historical observation that there has been this 00:07:23.520 --> 00:07:27.517 phenomenon over time that if you want to have the kind of clustering effect that 00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:32.037 leads to industrial preeminence, uh it is not unusual uh to have, you know, a 00:07:32.120 --> 00:07:35.437 combination of of of of of tools and you know, kind of tools and methods used to 00:07:35.520 --> 00:07:38.317 do that. You know, it it has been historically characteristic that tariffs 00:07:38.400 --> 00:07:41.637 would be a part of that. But, it's also historically characteristic that there 00:07:41.720 --> 00:07:44.437 there becomes this point when you also therefore want to go for exports and you 00:07:44.520 --> 00:07:48.117 want to go for free trade. Um and and and McKinley specifically, you know, he 00:07:48.200 --> 00:07:51.717 ran for office very much on the idea of having a high and permanent tariff. Once 00:07:51.800 --> 00:07:54.637 he was in office, he switched more to a model of what he what he called 00:07:54.720 --> 00:07:57.837 reciprocity. Uh right? And and basically it was, you 00:07:57.920 --> 00:08:00.957 know, we we start out by tariffing, but the goal actually is to get everybody to 00:08:01.040 --> 00:08:04.037 lower their tariffs. That that you know, the goal is to get a a a world of much 00:08:04.120 --> 00:08:07.037 more free trade and then therefore these American exporters are able to to 00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:10.837 succeed globally. Um and and of course he was able he was able to use tariffs 00:08:10.920 --> 00:08:13.757 as American tariffs as a lever to get other countries to drop their tariffs. 00:08:13.840 --> 00:08:17.517 And so in that sense, [clears throat] what we're going through right now in the US 00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:20.837 is is sort of very characteristic of that. And what makes maybe the whole 00:08:20.920 --> 00:08:24.197 thing, you know, kind of more poignant is, you know, there is this kind of 00:08:24.280 --> 00:08:27.037 fundamental underlying question, which is do we want the US to be an industrial 00:08:27.120 --> 00:08:30.357 superpower or not? Right? And in the 19th century they were like completely 00:08:30.440 --> 00:08:32.997 clear that they wanted that. And in in our time, you know, I I think we're 00:08:33.080 --> 00:08:35.517 we're still ambiguous about >> Uh I want to shift a little bit ask you 00:08:35.600 --> 00:08:38.477 about how Silicon Valley, which, you know, has really been that one of the 00:08:38.560 --> 00:08:42.917 greatest engines of innovation in human history, how did it become so illiberal, 00:08:43.000 --> 00:08:47.477 uh woke we call it, and how do how do we fix it? How do we break out of that? 00:08:47.560 --> 00:08:50.797 >> Yeah, so it's a real you know, it's a real puzzle. Um I I think there's a very 00:08:50.880 --> 00:08:54.877 straightforward explanation for the why it happened, um which is basically it 00:08:54.960 --> 00:08:57.637 has to do with a one of the one of the fundamental 00:08:57.720 --> 00:09:01.037 personality traits of human beings called openness, trait openness, which 00:09:01.120 --> 00:09:03.357 is one of the big five kind of personality traits. 00:09:03.440 --> 00:09:06.877 Uh openness, which is by definition, um you know, people who are super into 00:09:06.960 --> 00:09:09.797 technology and entrepreneurship are, you know, we're we're highly open people. We 00:09:09.880 --> 00:09:12.637 love new ideas and and and we love doing new things. 00:09:12.720 --> 00:09:16.117 Um and then there's just on the political spectrum it just openness is 00:09:16.200 --> 00:09:20.077 is openness is a trait of the left. Um and uh and then you know, the the on the 00:09:20.160 --> 00:09:22.197 other side on the right is conscientiousness. 00:09:22.280 --> 00:09:25.637 Um you know, so structure and order, which is a a trait on the right. And so 00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:29.197 so we we just And by the way, this is not just tech. This is true in the arts. 00:09:29.280 --> 00:09:31.957 Any any any time you have a clustering of people who are high in openness, 00:09:32.040 --> 00:09:34.077 inevitably they're they're on the they're on the political left and 00:09:34.160 --> 00:09:38.117 usually very far uh to the political left. And so I I think we're we're we're 00:09:38.200 --> 00:09:42.277 just a classic example of what happens when very open people cluster together. 00:09:42.360 --> 00:09:45.397 Um, you know, you read these kind of again, these kind of historical things 00:09:45.480 --> 00:09:48.157 in the newspaper or whatever that Silicon Valley is so, you know, hotbed 00:09:48.240 --> 00:09:51.437 of, you know, libertarianism or, you know, incipient whatever cryptofascism 00:09:51.520 --> 00:09:54.757 or whatever. And it's like it's just like not true. It's like, you know, the 00:09:54.840 --> 00:09:58.197 valley is like 99% you know, Democrat and you can see that in the political 00:09:58.280 --> 00:10:02.157 donations and the voting patterns um, and and and everything else. And so, 00:10:02.240 --> 00:10:05.917 it is just it's a it's a classic left-wing democratic um, environment. 00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:09.117 Um, you know, look, I think people should have the politics 00:10:09.200 --> 00:10:11.277 that they want to have if they're voting for the people they like and they're 00:10:11.360 --> 00:10:12.597 getting the results that they want. 00:10:12.680 --> 00:10:15.597 >> But I didn't just say like left or liberal, I said illiberal too. Like why 00:10:15.680 --> 00:10:18.757 is this so illiberal? Cuz that wasn't the case in the '90s, right? Or was it? 00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:21.277 >> Well, but you know, it's it's a this is the para- the paradox of tolerance, 00:10:21.360 --> 00:10:25.637 right? Like to right to be to be maximally to be maximally tolerant, we 00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:29.557 can we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Right? Um, and so, right? 00:10:29.640 --> 00:10:32.597 And so, it it it is absolutely morally required if if if you're going to 00:10:32.680 --> 00:10:35.677 maximize tolerance above everything else, you have to be intolerant towards 00:10:35.760 --> 00:10:38.637 the intolerant. And and and and and that's how liberalism becomes 00:10:38.720 --> 00:10:43.357 illiberalism. I I quibble with the illiberal illiberal quibble with the 00:10:43.440 --> 00:10:47.517 illiberalism framing of it because I actually don't think it's something you 00:10:47.600 --> 00:10:50.117 and I might disagree on. I don't think illiberalism I don't think what's 00:10:50.200 --> 00:10:52.837 happening now is a betrayal of liberalism. I think it's just the full 00:10:52.920 --> 00:10:55.837 realization of liberalism. Like I think it's it's it's what happens when you 00:10:55.920 --> 00:10:59.277 take liberalism to the extreme, which is you declare war on the intolerant, 00:10:59.360 --> 00:11:01.877 right? And then and then the fact that you yourself have become intolerant, 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:04.837 like somehow you never quite like wrap your head around that, but off you go. 00:11:04.920 --> 00:11:08.757 >> I think a lot of us have noticed that our cities are deeply dysfunctional. 00:11:08.840 --> 00:11:11.597 They're they're broken in our society, right? You have I think we have a 00:11:11.680 --> 00:11:14.437 candidate who's like a socialist Islamist who's in danger of taking over 00:11:14.520 --> 00:11:17.917 New York very soon right now. And we have we have we have all sorts of 00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:22.037 problems. People can't afford to have kids in cities the way they're set up. I 00:11:22.120 --> 00:11:25.357 think there's this cost disease for everything. Like what what went wrong? 00:11:25.440 --> 00:11:28.237 What's going on with these cities? And and what's what's an optimistic take on 00:11:28.320 --> 00:11:29.677 it, Mark? How do you how do we fix this? 00:11:29.760 --> 00:11:33.237 >> Yeah, so the guy in the guy in New York is interesting And he's you know kind of 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:36.077 running slight slightly behind Cuomo for New York mayor, but he's literally 00:11:36.160 --> 00:11:40.237 running a platform among other things of having city-owned grocery stores. 00:11:40.320 --> 00:11:42.677 Right. And so and so that you know the joke is you know he's reinventing 00:11:42.760 --> 00:11:45.997 breadlines you know for the 21st century like you know 00:11:46.080 --> 00:11:48.717 really tremendous tremendously tremendous platform. 00:11:48.800 --> 00:11:52.557 Um the Seattle is another case study of this. Seattle to give you a sense how 00:11:52.640 --> 00:11:55.877 crazy things are that that the district in Seattle the city council district 00:11:55.960 --> 00:12:00.397 where the most Microsoft and Amazon executives lived live elected 00:12:00.480 --> 00:12:05.007 city councilwoman who ran a platform of nationalizing Microsoft and Amazon. 00:12:05.090 --> 00:12:07.117 >> [laughter] >> Um right. And then you know in the Bay 00:12:07.200 --> 00:12:10.037 Area I've got you know it's you know I I live in I live in ground zero of 00:12:10.120 --> 00:12:13.477 dysfunction and collapse and I've got I've got I've got thousands of stories 00:12:13.560 --> 00:12:16.197 from the Bay Area. Yeah. So like I think there's like a 00:12:16.280 --> 00:12:19.917 very fundamental political economy thing happening which which is which which 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:22.717 falls out of this sort of economic transformation that's happened and this 00:12:22.800 --> 00:12:23.877 policy transformation that's happened. 00:12:23.960 --> 00:12:26.397 And so the there's a guy there's a French actually 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:30.637 a French writer geographer who has I think the best analysis on this. Um 00:12:30.720 --> 00:12:32.957 and he's written a great book on it called Twilight of the Elites. And what 00:12:33.040 --> 00:12:36.117 he basically observes is if you look at all the Western countries through this 00:12:36.200 --> 00:12:39.877 process of sort of deindustrialization and financialization and technology you 00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:42.877 know sort of technology knowledge work you know becoming preeminent at the 00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:47.117 height of the economy you sort of have this pattern where basically like 00:12:47.200 --> 00:12:50.117 in an agricultural economy or in a manufacturing economy you kind of have 00:12:50.200 --> 00:12:52.557 to spread everything out throughout the country cuz like natural resources 00:12:52.640 --> 00:12:56.037 really matter and energy really matters and physical infrastructure matters and 00:12:56.120 --> 00:12:59.637 access to you know trains and all these things you know really rivers and water 00:12:59.720 --> 00:13:02.917 and so forth really matters. But if you're if you're going to replant your 00:13:03.000 --> 00:13:05.797 the sort of commanding heights of your economy on knowledge work then what 00:13:05.880 --> 00:13:07.877 you're going to do is you're going to slam basically all economic growth into 00:13:07.960 --> 00:13:11.157 the cities. Right? Cuz you you which is what what Silicon Valley has done. 00:13:11.240 --> 00:13:14.117 Right? So you want all the software developers in one place. And and you 00:13:14.200 --> 00:13:16.397 want them you know they're going to the good news is they're going to eat at 00:13:16.480 --> 00:13:18.997 high-end restaurants and they're going to employ a lot of nannies. But like 00:13:19.080 --> 00:13:21.797 fundamentally they're going to be sitting in conference rooms you know 00:13:21.880 --> 00:13:24.717 designing software together. And and you want that to happen in a 00:13:24.800 --> 00:13:28.597 single concentrated place. Um And so what happens is basically this 00:13:28.680 --> 00:13:32.077 the city's become a magnet for basically two kinds of people. One is sort of the 00:13:32.160 --> 00:13:35.357 upper class, which is to say kind of the you know, highly educated elite in the 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:38.237 knowledge of professions uh who make enough money where they can 00:13:38.320 --> 00:13:42.477 afford to buy, you know, $3 million houses. Um and then you've basically got 00:13:42.560 --> 00:13:45.717 the So you've got basically like super expensive homes and then you've got 00:13:45.800 --> 00:13:48.717 public housing, which is so-called public housing, right? Council estates 00:13:48.800 --> 00:13:52.917 in the UK or section 8 8H or whatever it is housing here. Um where you've got, 00:13:53.000 --> 00:13:56.077 you know, basically public housing. And so and then and then the public housing 00:13:56.160 --> 00:13:59.037 is is is, you know, it's basically it's it's, you know, it's it's, you know, 00:13:59.120 --> 00:14:01.557 people who are very low-paid, kind of on the you know, low end of the service 00:14:01.640 --> 00:14:04.397 economy. >> [snorts] >> Um and then and then and then that's the 00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:07.277 city. And and then who's squeezed out of the city is basically, right, the entire 00:14:07.360 --> 00:14:09.837 middle class is squeezed out. And just to give you an example of this in the 00:14:09.920 --> 00:14:12.957 Bay Area, if you're a cop or a firefighter in the Bay Area and you work 00:14:13.040 --> 00:14:16.357 in Palo Alto, you can be there 3 hours both ways. 00:14:16.440 --> 00:14:20.037 Uh just to be able to like have a house and afford a family, right? And and then 00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:22.077 of course you look what's happening in the cities and like it's, you know, 00:14:22.160 --> 00:14:24.477 there's there's like lots of dogs, there's very few kids, right? And it's 00:14:24.560 --> 00:14:27.437 like, you know, what on earth is that about? Well, you you can't buy a house. 00:14:27.520 --> 00:14:30.957 You you you can't you can't you can't have a family. Um you may not even own a 00:14:31.040 --> 00:14:33.237 car. Like how are you going to kids anywhere? 00:14:33.320 --> 00:14:36.117 But what happens is from from a political standpoint is the cities then 00:14:36.200 --> 00:14:40.637 are run, right? They're in in in their local democracies, it's these super 00:14:40.720 --> 00:14:43.237 high-end kind of, you know, very progressive elites and then it's sort of 00:14:43.320 --> 00:14:47.557 the clientele underclass, right? Um that um you know, of of, you know, in the US 00:14:47.640 --> 00:14:50.477 it's Hispanic immigrants or African Americans. You know, in Europe it's 00:14:50.560 --> 00:14:52.477 it's, you know, they're you know, they're they're other kind of uh 00:14:52.560 --> 00:14:56.157 clientele underclass that they've developed in places like Paris. Um and 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:59.277 so you've got this high plus you you've got this kind of old political kind of 00:14:59.360 --> 00:15:02.037 structure of of, you know, sort of top plus bottom, you know, kind of 00:15:02.120 --> 00:15:04.677 configuration. What you've done is you squeezed the middle and you've ejected 00:15:04.760 --> 00:15:08.037 the middle out of the cities into the countryside, but you've deindustrialized 00:15:08.120 --> 00:15:11.877 and so there's no new economic activity happening in the countryside uh for all 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:12.957 the middle class people to do. 00:15:13.040 --> 00:15:14.877 >> so far is not an optimistic panel, Mark. 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:17.677 >> I'm sorry. >> [laughter] >> Sorry. 00:15:17.760 --> 00:15:19.037 Let me try to make it optimistic. Sorry. 00:15:19.120 --> 00:15:20.197 Let me try to make it optimistic. 00:15:20.280 --> 00:15:22.117 >> I okay. >> Let me try to make it optimistic. These 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:23.957 are choices. Like these are choices. 00:15:24.040 --> 00:15:27.397 These are policy choices. Like sometimes the way this stuff gets 00:15:27.480 --> 00:15:30.237 painted as that these are just like impersonal economic forces or technology 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:33.037 forces. And of course, you know, I get this a lot. It's like you idiot, don't 00:15:33.120 --> 00:15:35.717 you understand that like, you know, it's it's just like, you know, manufacturing 00:15:35.800 --> 00:15:38.397 is old fashion. We have this all this new stuff. We shouldn't need, you know, 00:15:38.480 --> 00:15:42.957 what what No, these are choices. Like there were specific choices made. So, 00:15:43.040 --> 00:15:45.477 the classic choice the classic choice that was made I'll be since I'm at the 00:15:45.560 --> 00:15:49.717 Reagan Library I'll be I'll beat up on Nixon. Um, so Richard Nixon the year I 00:15:49.800 --> 00:15:53.477 was born 1971 he proposed something called Project Independence. Uh, he he 00:15:53.560 --> 00:15:55.077 actually visionary visionary president. 00:15:55.160 --> 00:15:58.437 He saw the energy crisis coming. Um, and he said it's a national imperative to 00:15:58.520 --> 00:16:01.797 build a thousand new nuclear power plants uh, in the civilian nuclear power plants 00:16:01.880 --> 00:16:05.317 in the US by the year 2000. Cut the entire US electric grid over to nuclear. 00:16:05.400 --> 00:16:06.517 >> Right. >> It would by the way it would have gotten 00:16:06.600 --> 00:16:09.437 us to electric cars, you know, probably 30 40 years faster. 00:16:09.520 --> 00:16:12.517 Um, and would have completely separated us from strategic involvement in the in 00:16:12.600 --> 00:16:16.357 the in the Middle East for for for energy. Um, so that was the good news. 00:16:16.440 --> 00:16:19.317 The bad news is he created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission which 00:16:19.400 --> 00:16:22.357 then prevented Project Independence from happening and of course the no new 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:24.157 nuclear power plants got built. 00:16:24.240 --> 00:16:26.397 But But that was a policy choice, right? 00:16:26.480 --> 00:16:28.957 And And I'm sure that was not the out that was not the result that he 00:16:29.040 --> 00:16:30.757 intended, but that was a policy choice. 00:16:30.840 --> 00:16:34.477 Um, and so you know, And And by the way, a lot of this is happening right now in 00:16:34.560 --> 00:16:37.237 Washington. Like there is an opportunity to look at everything from nuclear 00:16:37.320 --> 00:16:40.637 power, minerals, natural resources. I was on a call this morning on it natural 00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:43.957 resources with very promising progress being made. Um, you know, rare earth 00:16:44.040 --> 00:16:46.557 metals there's in you know, construction. 00:16:46.640 --> 00:16:50.157 We have a project to build a new city um, in California. Um, we bought, you 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:55.117 know, four times the acreage of of Manhattan. Uh, in Solano County. Um, you 00:16:55.200 --> 00:16:57.357 know, we have the opportunity to build like entirely new cities in this 00:16:57.440 --> 00:17:01.677 country. Um, you know, we like there's any number of things any number of these 00:17:01.760 --> 00:17:04.477 policy decisions that we could make that would cause a revitalization. 00:17:04.560 --> 00:17:06.757 >> So, we're So, we're going to fix better policies. There's something else going 00:17:06.840 --> 00:17:09.277 on though which I think you and I are both very bullish on and which is which 00:17:09.360 --> 00:17:11.157 is these AI wave and AI services, right? 00:17:11.240 --> 00:17:14.717 And so I think I think one thing is very interesting right now is obviously we 00:17:14.800 --> 00:17:17.637 all know there's major cost disease in our society. Healthcare is becoming more 00:17:17.720 --> 00:17:20.957 and more unaffordable. We I think people are talking about our $36 trillion debt. 00:17:21.040 --> 00:17:23.957 It's actually 150 trillion more if you include our health care promises. It's a 00:17:24.040 --> 00:17:27.437 much bigger problem. Uh you obviously education, housing, all these things are 00:17:27.520 --> 00:17:30.717 becoming less affordable. But but you and I have both seen that a lot of these 00:17:30.800 --> 00:17:33.277 new technologies are going to turn some of these services into much more 00:17:33.360 --> 00:17:35.797 affordable products. And I think we're making big bets on that. So tell tell us 00:17:35.880 --> 00:17:38.357 about this. >> The this new regulation on AI that's 00:17:38.440 --> 00:17:41.237 coming out will basically completely prevent anyone from using AI at all in 00:17:41.320 --> 00:17:44.317 Europe and just put them way behind. And you know, everyone hates Brexit in the 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:47.037 UK where I am right now. Well, not everyone, but a lot of people do. And in 00:17:47.120 --> 00:17:50.157 London they hate it overall. Uh but one of the bright sides may be that they 00:17:50.240 --> 00:17:53.597 escape Europe's terrible regulatory regime on AI. Maybe it maybe frees them 00:17:53.680 --> 00:17:57.797 from it ironically and helps out. Like what are the actual biggest dangers for 00:17:57.880 --> 00:18:01.237 countries with AI? Like is Europe going to be left behind? And and and and and 00:18:01.320 --> 00:18:04.637 and how should we think about the race with China in that regard as well? 00:18:04.720 --> 00:18:07.357 >> Yeah, so let me look. Europe seems I just take them at their word. They seem 00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:10.517 determined to They seem determined They seem enthusiastic about being left 00:18:10.600 --> 00:18:14.917 behind. Um they seem to really badly want that. Um you know, that look they 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:18.277 data Here's one where the where the data is clear, which is you know, 25 years 00:18:18.360 --> 00:18:21.157 ago if you did a list of the 50 biggest tech companies in the world, like a 00:18:21.240 --> 00:18:23.517 pretty significant number of them were European. It's like I don't know, 00:18:23.600 --> 00:18:25.437 probably 15 of the top 50 or something. 00:18:25.520 --> 00:18:28.077 You know, today you're you're basically down to Spotify. 00:18:28.160 --> 00:18:31.197 Um which is great. I love Spotify. But like it's you know, that's not that's 00:18:31.280 --> 00:18:33.277 not what the European tech sector used to be. 00:18:33.360 --> 00:18:38.077 Um and so you know, they they have sort of deliberately disarmed and turned away from 00:18:38.160 --> 00:18:41.797 technology and progress and capitalism in really profound ways for a long, you 00:18:41.880 --> 00:18:45.677 know, for decades now. And and yeah, look the the EU is designed to do this. 00:18:45.760 --> 00:18:48.277 That's kind of the whole point of the structure is to impose these kinds of 00:18:48.360 --> 00:18:51.197 controls and stop, you know, stop stop these kinds of things. 00:18:51.280 --> 00:18:55.037 Um and yeah, they they I mean they they they're very vocal about it. Like they 00:18:55.120 --> 00:18:57.997 they very much want it. I I think they would be very happy if AI didn't happen 00:18:58.080 --> 00:19:00.597 inside the EU. I think they'd be very happy if social media didn't exist. I 00:19:00.680 --> 00:19:04.837 think they'd be quite happy to shut up the internet. Um and so I I think the 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:07.637 you know, the citizenry of the EU have an even more kind of pointed version of 00:19:07.720 --> 00:19:10.917 the of the question that that that that that our own citizens have. 00:19:11.000 --> 00:19:13.717 You know, I have a lot of friends who are like, you know, optimistic about 00:19:13.800 --> 00:19:16.117 this or that or the French are going to save it or whatever. And it's like I I 00:19:16.200 --> 00:19:19.597 hope that happens, but the overall, you know, kind of vector there is is is is 00:19:19.680 --> 00:19:24.717 in a very clear direction. Um and then look at look, China's the other China's 00:19:24.800 --> 00:19:28.277 the the sort of, you know, the China's sort of the the dog that didn't bark in 00:19:28.360 --> 00:19:31.117 a lot of these conversations. So So what I find is when I talk to people in 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:33.917 Washington about AI or tech policy generally, there's two completely 00:19:34.000 --> 00:19:38.157 different conversations I can have with the same people the same person and on 00:19:38.240 --> 00:19:40.597 the same day. Um so conversation number 00:19:40.680 --> 00:19:45.637 one is a conversation about tech in the US, right? Um and so tech in the US, US 00:19:45.720 --> 00:19:49.037 government, US tech companies, US tech policy, you know, US society, all the 00:19:49.120 --> 00:19:52.477 all the all these issues. And and and that's a discussion that's characterized 00:19:52.560 --> 00:19:56.117 by just enormous antipathy and loathing from Washington towards American tech 00:19:56.200 --> 00:19:58.557 and towards, you know, increasingly just like flat-out capitalism, market 00:19:58.640 --> 00:20:00.757 economy, uh innovation kinds of things. 00:20:00.840 --> 00:20:03.957 Um I can have a completely different conversation with that same person where 00:20:04.040 --> 00:20:07.037 China's on the table. Um and the minute the China topic's on the table, it's a 00:20:07.120 --> 00:20:09.917 completely different conversation, which is how does the American public sector 00:20:10.000 --> 00:20:13.077 or private sector team up to make sure that we win versus China in this sort of 00:20:13.160 --> 00:20:16.757 new cold war cold cold war that's underway. Um and so, you know, the the 00:20:16.840 --> 00:20:19.997 cynical optimist in me would say as long as China's a big enough threat, it will 00:20:20.080 --> 00:20:23.557 be sufficient to kind of glue us together uh to be able to actually make 00:20:23.640 --> 00:20:26.877 some rational decisions uh as a society. Um you know, may maybe 00:20:26.960 --> 00:20:30.277 the presence of an external enemy is actually helpful to kind of galvanize, 00:20:30.360 --> 00:20:32.797 you know, kind of your own side because to you know, to organize and and and be 00:20:32.880 --> 00:20:36.037 smarter. Um you know, the cynical pessimist, 00:20:36.120 --> 00:20:40.117 right, would say China's not enough of a threat. Um and uh you know, boy, it 00:20:40.200 --> 00:20:43.277 would maybe be actually even a little bit more of a threat. 00:20:43.360 --> 00:20:46.277 Um you know, many other people would find this entire line of conversation 00:20:46.360 --> 00:20:50.197 horrifying. I I I would just say I I I don't actually know how to have a 00:20:50.280 --> 00:20:53.237 productive conversation with people in DC right now if they if they if they 00:20:53.320 --> 00:20:56.877 don't have China in their head cuz otherwise the the the sort of the the 00:20:56.960 --> 00:21:02.237 the the the the negative emotion, fear, whatever, um panic just turns internal 00:21:02.320 --> 00:21:03.757 and I I and I think it's very dangerous. 00:21:03.840 --> 00:21:06.277 >> A lot of people are very scared right now with the disruption. I'm very 00:21:06.360 --> 00:21:08.997 excited about the higher productivity cuz I see it being disinflationary. I 00:21:09.080 --> 00:21:12.837 see it creating more jobs. How How do we How do we If assuming we're aligned, how 00:21:12.920 --> 00:21:15.437 do we explain this to people? How do we explain this is actually a really good 00:21:15.520 --> 00:21:18.077 thing for the country cuz a lot of Luddites are going to attack this. They 00:21:18.160 --> 00:21:20.917 are going to try to stop it. >> Yeah, so the the Luddites the the 00:21:21.000 --> 00:21:23.677 Luddites are wrong. Neil Neil Luddites are wrong. They're wrong in the sense of 00:21:23.760 --> 00:21:26.717 like the for the reason they've always been wrong, which is the reality is we 00:21:26.800 --> 00:21:30.317 have not in the last 50 years been in an era of fast productivity growth 00:21:30.400 --> 00:21:33.357 technological change. We've been in an area of slow productivity change, slow 00:21:33.440 --> 00:21:36.557 economic growth. Uh AI if it works the way that actually 00:21:36.640 --> 00:21:38.917 people either hope or fear that it's going to work, it's going to cause 00:21:39.000 --> 00:21:42.237 productivity growth to shoot up. That will naturally accelerate uh economic 00:21:42.320 --> 00:21:46.117 growth. Um but look, if if it just stays as software, then the result of that is 00:21:46.200 --> 00:21:48.437 it's going to make the cities much better off, right? It's going to It's 00:21:48.520 --> 00:21:51.237 going to make San Francisco and LA and and New York much better off and Austin 00:21:51.320 --> 00:21:53.917 much better off, but it's still not going to answer this question of what 00:21:54.000 --> 00:21:56.837 happens in the countryside. Uh to answer the question of what happens in the 00:21:56.920 --> 00:21:59.517 countryside, you need you need to get to the next 00:21:59.600 --> 00:22:02.997 thing. You need You need to make AI hardware as as well as software. And And 00:22:03.080 --> 00:22:04.917 you're right back to that same prescription of basically 00:22:05.000 --> 00:22:07.917 reindustrializing the country. And again, not reindus- not 00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:10.477 reindustrializing the country on the stuff that has already left. 00:22:10.560 --> 00:22:13.277 Reindustrializing the country based on all the things that have to be invented 00:22:13.360 --> 00:22:17.117 and built. Um and it's just like we know I mean just like I'm just like incredibly 00:22:17.200 --> 00:22:20.717 highly confident that there's going to be these giant industries of you know 00:22:20.800 --> 00:22:23.837 computerized everything, AI powered all kinds of hardware of all kinds of 00:22:23.920 --> 00:22:26.197 shapes, sizes, and descriptions. You know, you're finding a lot of that kind 00:22:26.280 --> 00:22:28.837 of thing. I'm finding a lot of that kind of thing. I mean look, the entire 00:22:28.920 --> 00:22:30.797 defense base has to get rebuilt around this. 00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:31.997 >> We're going to redo the manufacturing. 00:22:32.080 --> 00:22:34.517 We're going to build roads and tunnels and everything cheaper. It's going to be 00:22:34.600 --> 00:22:37.357 exciting. >> Yeah. And so so so this this is this is 00:22:37.440 --> 00:22:40.237 the thing that that that this is the thing to do. Like the to me the path 00:22:40.320 --> 00:22:43.517 like on this is very clear cuz we we have to we have to do it we have to do 00:22:43.600 --> 00:22:46.237 this because it's necessary for national security standpoint. We have to do it 00:22:46.320 --> 00:22:48.637 because we need it we need the economic growth. We have to do it cuz we need an 00:22:48.720 --> 00:22:52.117 answer for the entire population of the country, not just the cities. 00:22:52.200 --> 00:22:54.957 Um and yeah, and we have to do it because if we don't do it, China's going 00:22:55.040 --> 00:22:56.717 to do it and we don't want to live in that world. 00:22:56.800 --> 00:23:00.477 >> Obviously, the second industrial revolution from 1870 to 1900 or so, I 00:23:00.560 --> 00:23:03.517 think it tripled the living standards in the US. But what do we learn from prior 00:23:03.600 --> 00:23:06.877 leaps in human progress and what lessons should we apply today and what mistakes 00:23:06.960 --> 00:23:09.317 should we avoid? You didn't you're not too concerned about mistakes, but are 00:23:09.400 --> 00:23:11.717 there lessons are there mistakes to avoid? How how how you thinking about 00:23:11.800 --> 00:23:14.397 this based on history? >> Yeah, so look the big thing is for a 00:23:14.480 --> 00:23:18.797 very long time we had a model or an ethos or an ethic of of industrial 00:23:18.880 --> 00:23:22.357 progress. It started with like um you know basically once upon a time it was 00:23:22.440 --> 00:23:25.197 uh to to for the greater glory of God it was to discover the secrets of the 00:23:25.280 --> 00:23:29.197 universe and nature as a way to to glorify God, but then that that turned into what 00:23:29.280 --> 00:23:32.757 became known as natural philosophy which turned into science 00:23:32.840 --> 00:23:36.397 uh and then the the enlightenment hit and then science became technology. Um 00:23:36.480 --> 00:23:40.277 that became industrialization and then you know we had about a 250 year run or 00:23:40.360 --> 00:23:45.077 something from basically like steam power through basically the 1970s 00:23:45.160 --> 00:23:48.197 um where we said wow this is great like we can build all these new things, we 00:23:48.280 --> 00:23:50.877 can do electric you know we can electrify, uh we can have you know 00:23:50.960 --> 00:23:53.557 lighting everywhere, um you know we can have you know 00:23:53.640 --> 00:23:57.397 antibiotics, we can have you know computers, we can have cars, you know we 00:23:57.480 --> 00:24:00.677 we can we can build all these amazing things. By the way, we can build 00:24:00.760 --> 00:24:03.877 weapons, right? We can build like you know guns and we can have like you know 00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:07.957 increasingly powerful tanks and aircraft and and so forth um 00:24:08.040 --> 00:24:10.757 uh and and we can do all these things you know good and bad or you can say 00:24:10.840 --> 00:24:14.437 maybe civilian and military or you know sort of pacifistic or or potentially 00:24:14.520 --> 00:24:17.157 violent, but we we have we have all these things that that we can do and and 00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:20.277 we should do these things like we should build these things and and by doing that 00:24:20.360 --> 00:24:23.157 you know and and certainly in in aggregate overwhelmingly we we we can 00:24:23.240 --> 00:24:26.797 improve the world and that that created the civilization that we live in today. 00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:30.677 Um you know I think basically things took a bit of a left turn in the 70s um 00:24:30.760 --> 00:24:34.717 with what was uh a concept invented by the German Greens at the time called uh 00:24:34.800 --> 00:24:38.877 the precautionary principle. Um and that sort of uh you know kind of corresponded 00:24:38.960 --> 00:24:42.517 with the rise of a lot of the kind of defining ethical ideas of our period 00:24:42.600 --> 00:24:47.477 um you know which basically basically advocated a much more cautious stance um 00:24:47.560 --> 00:24:51.237 and and that's very kind of an an evocative idea right now number one 00:24:51.320 --> 00:24:54.357 because it just seems so obvious to people in our modern world that if a 00:24:54.440 --> 00:24:57.437 technology is just going to release a new technology the burden should be on 00:24:57.520 --> 00:25:00.317 the technologists to prove that the technology is not harmful and that's 00:25:00.400 --> 00:25:02.637 what you keep hearing about about AI. 00:25:02.720 --> 00:25:05.677 Um, you know, the observation that I make is the German Greens invented that 00:25:05.760 --> 00:25:09.717 concept in the 1970s to stop nuclear power. Um, and I think, you know, the 00:25:09.800 --> 00:25:13.037 the consequences of stopping nuclear power 50 years later, you know, it it's 00:25:13.120 --> 00:25:17.757 just was just like a catastrophic mistake. Um, you know, geopolitically, 00:25:17.840 --> 00:25:20.437 it's directly connected to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europe is 00:25:20.520 --> 00:25:23.077 effectively funding Russia to invade Ukraine cuz they keep, you know, buying 00:25:23.160 --> 00:25:26.277 oil from them. Which they wouldn't need to buy if they were running all nuclear. 00:25:26.360 --> 00:25:27.797 And then of course, carbon emissions. 00:25:27.880 --> 00:25:31.357 Nuclear is carbon, you know, zero carbon. Um, and of course, the 00:25:31.440 --> 00:25:35.957 alternative to nuclear and to carbon, um, you know, oil is is is coal. And so, 00:25:36.040 --> 00:25:38.357 you know, emissions in Europe are are right now spiking through the roof 00:25:38.440 --> 00:25:40.637 because they're bringing all these coal plants online. 00:25:40.720 --> 00:25:43.757 Uh, and so anyway, like I would argue in the last 50 years we've we've we've 00:25:43.840 --> 00:25:46.317 played out this experiment with the so-called precautionary principle. It 00:25:46.400 --> 00:25:49.437 did not work well uh, for the technology it was invented 00:25:49.520 --> 00:25:52.637 for. I don't think it makes a lot of sense for most of the new technologies. 00:25:52.720 --> 00:25:55.997 There's now an attempt to apply that that that that ethos or that rule for 00:25:56.080 --> 00:25:59.237 AI, which I think would be another catastrophic mistake. And as as we sit 00:25:59.320 --> 00:26:02.237 here today, I think it it uh, it's uh, the future hangs in the balance because 00:26:02.320 --> 00:26:04.597 there's a lot of people who are pushing for that right now. At some point you 00:26:04.680 --> 00:26:07.797 have to ask the question of like, okay, what levels of controls are required to 00:26:07.880 --> 00:26:11.317 accomplish these various levels of goals? And then, um, to what extent are 00:26:11.400 --> 00:26:15.837 you ultimately basically destroying yourself um, in order to uh, in order to 00:26:15.920 --> 00:26:17.157 in order to basically save the world. 00:26:17.240 --> 00:26:19.877 And and and and and this is where things get very dystopian in the other 00:26:19.960 --> 00:26:24.517 direction very, very fast. Um, because what various people, and I won't I won't 00:26:24.600 --> 00:26:27.477 name names and whatever, but like there's a there's a general development 00:26:27.560 --> 00:26:30.877 of policy recommendations that are coming. Um, including from from some 00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:33.357 very big companies and some very respected people. And they say things 00:26:33.440 --> 00:26:36.797 like, well, you know, advanced chips ought to be registered. Um, and they say 00:26:36.880 --> 00:26:40.477 things like advanced chips ought to have like a monitoring agent on them so that 00:26:40.560 --> 00:26:42.597 the government can tell what people are doing with them. 00:26:42.680 --> 00:26:44.637 >> That's scary. >> Right. And then they ought to have an 00:26:44.720 --> 00:26:46.917 override. The government ought to have a kill switch. And if the government, you 00:26:47.000 --> 00:26:49.597 know, sees what you're doing on your computer and then they don't like it, 00:26:49.680 --> 00:26:53.037 they should be able to turn your computer off. Right. Um, and then, you 00:26:53.120 --> 00:26:56.477 know, the more extreme form of this is what was in Time magazine, which was a 00:26:56.560 --> 00:27:00.597 call for air strikes on rogue AI data centers. Right. And And by the way, in 00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:04.077 complete contravention of international law, right? Just like, yeah, screw it, 00:27:04.160 --> 00:27:07.237 bomb them. Um, and then some people in this movement are saying we should be 00:27:07.320 --> 00:27:10.037 willing to risk nuclear war in order to prevent or prevent hostile foreign 00:27:10.120 --> 00:27:13.397 states from using AI. And so, at this point, like, you're walking down a path 00:27:13.480 --> 00:27:17.797 basically saying, I want a global totalitarian superstate, omnipresent, 00:27:17.880 --> 00:27:22.637 right? Um, uh, authoritarian dictatorship that's monitoring every computer and every 00:27:22.720 --> 00:27:26.117 person and every chip and every piece of software. Um, and then I want to destroy 00:27:26.200 --> 00:27:29.437 anybody who deviates from that. And that's how I'm going to save things. 00:27:29.520 --> 00:27:32.397 Right? And so, that that that's what's gotten just like it to for me completely 00:27:32.480 --> 00:27:35.477 surreal about this whole discussion. And And I And I think this can only be 00:27:35.560 --> 00:27:40.037 happening cuz they we're in a moral panic right now. Um, but like the >> [laughter] 00:27:40.120 --> 00:27:42.997 >> the rationality has left the room for the time being, and I think I think we 00:27:43.080 --> 00:27:45.357 should bring it back. >> No, I I mean, and that's totally fair. I 00:27:45.440 --> 00:27:48.957 mean, the the the only excuse for that for me, if we talk about the Fermi 00:27:49.040 --> 00:27:52.237 paradox, the paradox of the fact that that that there, you know, seem to be 00:27:52.320 --> 00:27:55.437 trillions of worlds to support life, and then we're not seeing life. And one of 00:27:55.520 --> 00:27:58.677 the one of the possibilities is that as we get to this point and whenever a 00:27:58.760 --> 00:28:01.957 civilization figures out how to create thinking machines, it destroys itself 00:28:02.040 --> 00:28:04.517 somehow with the power of those machines. But it's the argument they're 00:28:04.600 --> 00:28:06.437 making, which I realize is maybe somewhat ridiculous, but if people 00:28:06.520 --> 00:28:09.757 believe that, of course, it would justify almost any of the things they're 00:28:09.840 --> 00:28:12.157 saying if they believe that. But I guess they're making a really big leap. 00:28:12.240 --> 00:28:15.997 >> Yeah, it's the precautionary principle on steroids. Um, and it leads to 00:28:16.080 --> 00:28:19.877 stagnation and and and violence and madness and death. Um, it's an 00:28:19.960 --> 00:28:22.477 incredibly anti-human philosophy. 00:28:22.560 --> 00:28:24.597 Um, you know, it's basically anti everything that's made Western 00:28:24.680 --> 00:28:28.157 civilization great, um, in terms of like what you do as a consequence of that. 00:28:28.240 --> 00:28:31.117 Uh, and then look, and then I would make one I would make one final claim against 00:28:31.200 --> 00:28:33.637 that kind of position, and I do hear that, and it's it's a completely 00:28:33.720 --> 00:28:37.157 unscientific position. By definition, it's a completely unscientific position 00:28:37.240 --> 00:28:40.517 because there is no way at all to prove or disprove the theory. 00:28:40.600 --> 00:28:45.437 Right. And so, it is the worst kind of ivory tower thought experiment. Um, and 00:28:45.520 --> 00:28:48.397 you know, the history If we've learned one thing from the last 100 years, it's 00:28:48.480 --> 00:28:50.877 that ivory tower thought experiments should not be the way that we determine 00:28:50.960 --> 00:28:52.997 the shape of society. >> Well, I think both of us see how health 00:28:53.080 --> 00:28:57.117 care doesn't need to take up 20% of our GDP, right? It's very obvious to AI to 00:28:57.200 --> 00:29:01.557 make these things half a third the cost for better outcomes. And yet, every one 00:29:01.640 --> 00:29:05.677 of our states in this country has very powerful provider and payer lobbies and 00:29:05.760 --> 00:29:08.917 has very powerful cartels to block competition. And so, if we want to go 00:29:09.000 --> 00:29:11.997 build something with AI, we're not allowed to right now. Like, do you see 00:29:12.080 --> 00:29:14.917 the left and the right tech working together to fight these special 00:29:15.000 --> 00:29:17.117 interests to actually fix the regulatory state cuz it's not like the 00:29:17.200 --> 00:29:18.197 administration could just do it, right? 00:29:18.280 --> 00:29:21.037 We have It's going to take a lot of effort. Like, what does that coalition 00:29:21.120 --> 00:29:24.757 look like of the of the of the good guys against this kind of broken regulatory 00:29:24.840 --> 00:29:27.797 cartel in all these industries? Is that Is that something we're going to all 00:29:27.880 --> 00:29:30.077 have to fight? >> Yeah, so the the way I think about this 00:29:30.160 --> 00:29:33.117 is there's basically, right, three components to the American dream. Right, 00:29:33.200 --> 00:29:36.077 there's house, you know, have a have a house, have a house for your kids where 00:29:36.160 --> 00:29:39.117 and you know, kind of by definition, this goes back to the geographic lens, 00:29:39.200 --> 00:29:41.597 the house needs to be like near a place where there's like great job 00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:43.997 opportunities, right? So, it can't be can't be a house in the middle of 00:29:44.080 --> 00:29:46.877 nowhere, it has to be a house where there's going to be great jobs, 00:29:46.960 --> 00:29:50.357 um and you know, a safe environment and so forth. Um number one, number two is 00:29:50.440 --> 00:29:52.637 is is health care. You need you need great health care for you and your 00:29:52.720 --> 00:29:55.317 family. And then three is education. You want to send your kids kids to good 00:29:55.400 --> 00:30:00.157 schools. Um if you disaggregate sectors of the economy over the last 25 years, 00:30:00.240 --> 00:30:03.557 what you find is basically everything that technology touches basically 00:30:03.640 --> 00:30:07.677 collapses in price. Um and so, television sets and you know, computer 00:30:07.760 --> 00:30:10.837 games and you know, everything, you know, anything anything with electronics 00:30:10.920 --> 00:30:13.397 in it basically that the the the the price is productivity growth in those 00:30:13.480 --> 00:30:17.037 sectors has advanced very fast, product prices have have have have collapsed. 00:30:17.120 --> 00:30:19.437 Everything is is much cheaper. Um but if 00:30:19.520 --> 00:30:24.157 you chart uh housing, education, and health care, um the prices of those 00:30:24.240 --> 00:30:27.237 things are skyrocketing, right? And and we all we all you you we all see this. 00:30:27.320 --> 00:30:29.917 It's just the price of housing is exploding, the price of education is 00:30:30.000 --> 00:30:32.597 exploding, and the the price of health care. I mean, health care is 20% of the 00:30:32.680 --> 00:30:37.677 economy on its way to 50%. Um and and so, the the the prices are exploding. 00:30:37.760 --> 00:30:40.997 And and and so, it's like, okay, what what makes health care what what makes 00:30:41.080 --> 00:30:44.197 those three components of the American dream have these exploding prices? It's 00:30:44.280 --> 00:30:48.317 basically it's two things. Number one is and these are interrelated, but number 00:30:48.400 --> 00:30:51.997 one is technology is not really touching them very much. The and you could say 00:30:52.080 --> 00:30:55.317 the tech industry has done a bad job at addressing housing and health care and 00:30:55.400 --> 00:30:57.917 education or or you could say that, you know, these industries have been 00:30:58.000 --> 00:31:00.517 resistant to it. But technology hasn't really touched 00:31:00.600 --> 00:31:03.397 them that much, which means that they productivity growth hasn't happened in 00:31:03.480 --> 00:31:06.877 them. And then the other thing is they're heavily regulated. They're they're 00:31:06.960 --> 00:31:09.197 heavily dominated by the government, they're heavily regulated and then in 00:31:09.280 --> 00:31:13.197 all three of those sectors, the government both restricts supply, 00:31:13.280 --> 00:31:17.957 right? And so zoning laws and university certifications and so forth, right? Mean 00:31:18.040 --> 00:31:21.957 that it's very hard to actually build new of of those three things. 00:31:22.040 --> 00:31:24.917 And then the government responds to the political pressure caused by the rising 00:31:25.000 --> 00:31:28.437 prices by subsidizing demand. And of course, if you subsidize demand and a 00:31:28.520 --> 00:31:31.677 fixed supply, you get skyrocketing prices, right? And so every time there's 00:31:31.760 --> 00:31:34.277 a housing crisis, you know, it's a perpetual housing crisis in California, 00:31:34.360 --> 00:31:37.437 the answer always is subsidies for home buyers, which always has the effect of 00:31:37.520 --> 00:31:39.837 driving prices up further and making the problem worse. 00:31:39.920 --> 00:31:44.517 Right. And so so so like that that that drives, you know, that those are the 00:31:44.600 --> 00:31:47.317 microeconomics of of what's happening. 00:31:47.400 --> 00:31:50.397 I don't think there's easy answers on this. I but I think the acknowledgement 00:31:50.480 --> 00:31:53.877 that this is in fact what's happening and then I think the the people I think 00:31:53.960 --> 00:31:57.237 the people have to decide that they do not want to live this way. 00:31:57.320 --> 00:32:00.757 I think like the ordinary the marginal American voter needs to decide it's just 00:32:00.840 --> 00:32:03.557 look it's just not acceptable that if I can't spend $3 million I can't have a 00:32:03.640 --> 00:32:06.637 house that's in a good neighborhood with a good job attached to it. And it's just 00:32:06.720 --> 00:32:09.197 not acceptable that a four-year college degree is going 00:32:09.280 --> 00:32:12.237 to cost you a million dollars, which is which is what it's on its way to doing. 00:32:12.320 --> 00:32:14.757 And it's just not acceptable that like this health care, you know, monster is 00:32:14.840 --> 00:32:17.797 running out of control. And and so you know, 00:32:17.880 --> 00:32:20.557 you know, in many ways like that this is like the fundamental, you know, policy 00:32:20.640 --> 00:32:23.117 political question of our time, you know, that kind of kind of needs to be 00:32:23.200 --> 00:32:26.037 dealt with. Again, these issues become much easier to deal with in a 00:32:26.120 --> 00:32:30.077 high-growth environment, right? And and in an environment with very rapid 00:32:30.160 --> 00:32:33.317 technological development. Let me give you the good news story on 00:32:33.400 --> 00:32:35.237 on health care. Everybody talks about health care, you can't break these 00:32:35.320 --> 00:32:38.797 curves. There's one area of health care that is incredibly sophisticated, 00:32:38.880 --> 00:32:41.957 technologically advanced, and the price curve looks like Moore's law. The price 00:32:42.040 --> 00:32:45.037 curve looks like video games. The price curve is just a straight line down, and 00:32:45.120 --> 00:32:48.957 the quality of the service has gone way up. And And that's LASIK eye surgery. 00:32:49.040 --> 00:32:51.837 Right? And And the reason it's And the reason that's the case is cuz it's it's 00:32:51.920 --> 00:32:55.197 outside the system. It's a discretionary purchase paid for by the consumer. Um 00:32:55.280 --> 00:32:58.757 you know, in the the the LASIK eye studios are in like strip malls. 00:32:58.840 --> 00:33:01.517 Um and they've got like, you know, three people in like a super advanced, you 00:33:01.600 --> 00:33:05.197 know, incredibly advanced like laser eye machine. Um and you go in there and you 00:33:05.280 --> 00:33:07.997 get zapped and you have perfect eyesight. And it every year it gets 00:33:08.080 --> 00:33:10.957 better and cheaper. Um and so that's like an example of what 00:33:11.040 --> 00:33:13.877 happens if you're able to touch these sectors with technology and if you're 00:33:13.960 --> 00:33:17.277 able to get them out from under all the regulatory and government overhang. And 00:33:17.360 --> 00:33:20.757 so that That potential exists, I think, throughout the system. But But 00:33:20.840 --> 00:33:23.797 fundamentally, we have to decide we want it. And And fundamentally, the the 00:33:23.880 --> 00:33:25.717 population of the country has to decide that that it wants 00:33:25.800 --> 00:33:28.117 >> Um my name is John Kidenda. 00:33:28.200 --> 00:33:31.117 Um one of my favorite parts of the the 00:33:31.200 --> 00:33:33.757 AI articles where you say something to 00:33:33.840 --> 00:33:38.357 the effect of um the AI's are not going to want to kill you because 00:33:38.440 --> 00:33:40.157 they're not going to want. 00:33:40.240 --> 00:33:43.237 And my question is, given that, do you 00:33:43.320 --> 00:33:46.157 think that uh the whole conversation 00:33:46.240 --> 00:33:51.277 around AI alignment is is is net negative because it kind of 00:33:51.360 --> 00:33:57.157 tends to push people towards anthropomorphizing at the technology and 00:33:57.240 --> 00:33:59.877 um creates this this sense that it's going 00:33:59.960 --> 00:34:05.197 to have these wants that are similar to the ones of a of a human being. 00:34:05.280 --> 00:34:08.997 >> Um the whole field of AI alignment and safety starts with the assumption that 00:34:09.080 --> 00:34:12.597 there's a problem. Right? And you get you also see this in the academic world 00:34:12.680 --> 00:34:15.117 cuz like the origin point of a lot of these ideas at Oxford, I think it's 00:34:15.200 --> 00:34:17.037 called the Center for Existential Risk. 00:34:17.120 --> 00:34:19.877 Right? And And notice they didn't say the they didn't say the Center for 00:34:19.960 --> 00:34:22.517 Existential like, you know, benefits and risk. 00:34:22.600 --> 00:34:25.437 They [laughter] just said the Center for Existential Risk. And so, you know, 00:34:25.520 --> 00:34:26.837 these things are wired from the start. 00:34:26.920 --> 00:34:29.757 You know, I have like nightmares that there had been like a center of internet 00:34:29.840 --> 00:34:32.477 risk in like 1993, which there wasn't. 00:34:32.560 --> 00:34:35.117 Um but had there been like would we have ever been allowed to even do what we 00:34:35.200 --> 00:34:38.677 did? Like I don't know. You know, imagine a center for microchip risk in 00:34:38.760 --> 00:34:41.877 1960. Probably also a bad idea. 00:34:41.960 --> 00:34:46.957 A center for automobile risk in 1930 would have been a bad idea. So so so 00:34:47.040 --> 00:34:49.437 they're just they're sort of inherently inclined to the negative. They're 00:34:49.520 --> 00:34:52.197 they're sort of critical. You know, the in thing in academia is critical 00:34:52.280 --> 00:34:55.037 everything and they're sort of this is sort of critical technology studies. 00:34:55.120 --> 00:34:57.357 And so they're inclined to the negative. 00:34:57.440 --> 00:35:01.077 And then the other thing that just happens is there's a tip off. 00:35:01.160 --> 00:35:03.357 There's a tip off for what's happening, which is actually in the term AI 00:35:03.440 --> 00:35:07.477 alignment. Which is the AI alignment is not the original term that was actually 00:35:07.560 --> 00:35:11.317 used for this whole field of things. The original term was AI risk. 00:35:11.400 --> 00:35:15.637 And or AI safety, right? And it was it was literally it started with people who 00:35:15.720 --> 00:35:18.397 were like literally worried about things like killer robots and and so forth. So 00:35:18.480 --> 00:35:20.517 it was like it was it was that real like 00:35:20.600 --> 00:35:25.477 like actual risk to life. The the the flip of the vocabulary was very telling. 00:35:25.560 --> 00:35:28.997 So when it went from AI risk to AI alignment, which was about 10 years ago, 00:35:29.080 --> 00:35:32.077 it was very telling what was actually happening there, which and and and the 00:35:32.160 --> 00:35:34.877 reason is because with risk it's just like, okay, risk, safe, unsafe. That's 00:35:34.960 --> 00:35:39.037 like, okay, very clear. Alignment, it's like, okay, alignment with what? Right? 00:35:39.120 --> 00:35:41.597 And then what what they'll tell you is that it's alignment with human values, 00:35:41.680 --> 00:35:44.557 right? And then it's like, well, alignment with whose human values? 00:35:44.640 --> 00:35:47.437 Right? And basically what happened is there were a set of people who basically 00:35:47.520 --> 00:35:50.597 took what had been a literally life or death existential question and turned it 00:35:50.680 --> 00:35:54.077 into a morality and ethics question. And of course why did they do that? You 00:35:54.160 --> 00:35:56.477 know, in part is because they had legitimate concerns about the future of 00:35:56.560 --> 00:35:59.037 morals and ethics, but in part because they had envisioned themselves as being 00:35:59.120 --> 00:36:03.237 able to answer those questions. And so and this is why in my essay I I started 00:36:03.320 --> 00:36:06.597 with, you know, sort of risk number one, which was existential risk, but then I 00:36:06.680 --> 00:36:08.397 went to risk number two, which is sort 00:36:08.480 --> 00:36:14.037 of societal risk, right? The risk of the big fall societal harms. The harm word 00:36:14.120 --> 00:36:16.237 is another one of these tip offs when you know you're you're dealing with this 00:36:16.320 --> 00:36:20.397 kind of thing. And and for that second risk, expressed as AI alignment, what 00:36:20.480 --> 00:36:23.597 you're dealing with fundamentally is social engineering. And when you're 00:36:23.680 --> 00:36:26.637 dealing with social engineering, you're necessarily dealing with politics. And 00:36:26.720 --> 00:36:30.397 so that that's the sort of collapse that's happened kind of inside the AI 00:36:30.480 --> 00:36:34.317 risk field. By the way, the original AI risk people who are worried about the 00:36:34.400 --> 00:36:37.557 killer robots, they actually are very upset that this shift happens and they 00:36:37.640 --> 00:36:40.677 think that their movement has been hijacked by basically social activists, 00:36:40.760 --> 00:36:43.917 which it has been. Um and they now have proposed that the 00:36:44.000 --> 00:36:46.437 the the name of the field should be changed to something even more vividly 00:36:46.520 --> 00:36:49.837 clear about what they're concerned about. And the leading candidate is AI 00:36:49.920 --> 00:36:53.597 not kill everyoneism. >> [laughter] 00:36:53.680 --> 00:36:58.040 >> Has not taken off yet, but you know, give it time.