WEBVTT

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People are becoming what we now refer
to as AI vampires. They've got these huge

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bags under their eyes. They're
completely exhausted, but they're like

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euphoric. They're thrilled. We're
entering a golden age, which is AI is

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going to be a superpower that everybody
on the planet's going to have access to.

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It's like the most dramatic increase
in programmer productivity in like ever.

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>> Twitter proved it, right? Cutting 70%
and then it's running better or as good

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as it was before.
>> I generally don't wish I could go back

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in time and do things over again, but it
would be really really fun right now to

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be 18 or 20 or 22 and to have this
capability and figure out what I could

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do with it. We are going to see super
producers the likes of which we've never

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seen in the world. >> There's
news about it. UFOs. What is

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clear is the government at certain times
has hid certain materials. Why would

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they do that if there's
nothing to really worry about?

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>> Two things are pretty clear
at this point. One is that

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>> Mark, welcome
to monitoring the situation.

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>> Eric, it is great to be back.

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>> So, there's a lot to monitor today. Uh
I want to start first start with something

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that just happened um which is the uh

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anthropic uh blackmailing incident. And

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I I first want to tell a brief story
which is uh my uh friend Joe Hudson has

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this concept called the golden algorithm.
And the golden algorithm is

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states that um whatever you're scared
about you bring it about in exactly the

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way you're scared about it. So if you're
scared about getting abandoned you'll be

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super insecure and then you'll people
will abandon you because you're so

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insecure. Uh this is an example of a
literal golden algorithm where people

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have been so scared that AI is going
to be evil and have written about all the

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ways in which it's evil and in fact
maybe it's informed um informed

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something. What's happening there
or what do we find uh interesting?

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>> I I haven't studied this one in detail.

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Um uh I I've been monitoring other
situations but however um uh I mean just

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what I saw so far I think I just saw
anthropics thread. I haven't I haven't I

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haven't read the underlying material
yet, but Anthropic threads have said

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they trace the they trace some blackmail
behavior to literally to the to the AI

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doomer literature. >> Yeah.
>> That they [laughter]

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that it was in the training data.
So there there are all these there are all

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these there are all these you know
scenarios of like you know the terminate

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you know all the rogue AI gone wrong
that the that the AI doomer has been

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writing about for 20 years and and
literally anthropic of course which is

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of course the company is like you
know half doomer u apparently you know

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basically you know essentially said that
their own their own their own movement's

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literature is the thing that's causing
the behavior that they say they they

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they don't want. So it is a fairly um
incredible Yes. Yes it is. Yes. Oh, I

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mean like look if you didn't if you
don't want to build the killer AI, you

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know, step one would
be don't build the AI.

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[laughter] It's like hm
and then you know step two

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is like don't train it on all the data
that says it's supposed to, you know,

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the literature that your movement wrote
that says it's supposed to be a killer

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AI. So I, you know, Yeah. I don't know.

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Yeah. It's like your it's like your your
your golden algorithm coupled coupled

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with like the snake eating his tail.
Um coupled with, you know, I don't even

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know. Like the whole thing is so bananas.

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>> Yeah. Yeah. the um >> I mean
you know I can't resist you know

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if I could if I can if I can act out
memes it's the scream meme right which

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is you know the calls
coming from inside the house.

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>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. The um

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speaking of other situations another
thing you've been talking about recently

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is um is the concept of suicidal empathy
and and and Matt Kramer had a good quote

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which is if the empathy you have doesn't
make you more forgiving more accepting

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of other people's spiritual sovereignty
or more understanding of people who

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don't want to think or live the same way
you do you don't have empathy. you have

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empathy TM. Why have you been
thinking about this this this concept?

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>> Yeah, so there's this really brilliant

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there's this really brilliant guy God

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gad exactly pronouncing Gatsad. Um
and um and you know very brilliant guy and

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it's obviously lots of YouTube videos
and books and so forth and really

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brilliant guy. He's got this new book
coming out on so-called what he calls

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suicidal empathy and you know look it's
a you know there's a there's a sort of

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political loading to it which you know
we don't need to spend a lot of time on

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but um you know it's sort of this idea
that there are kind of these social

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justice you know kind of social reform
movements you know kind of through time

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that that have this characteristic
of you know they you know they they they

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claim to be causing positive change you
know in some direction and then it turns

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out they have you know sort of severe
you know sort of negative consequences.

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um that the the great Thomas Soul um
you know has you know basically spent 50

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years writing books about this um
and [laughter] and by the way no nobody

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nobody listened um and then in the last
decade we've been through you know wave

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after wave of this kind of social
activism that kind of you know results

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in like I mean it's it's all the stuff
right it's just you know all these like

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you know crime policy reform defund
the police things and it causes these

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massive crime waves and then of course
low-inccome and minority people get hit

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hardest by that and you know all the all
all these other all these other crazy

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things. Um, and so he says, you know,
he says the characteristic of kind of that

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kind of social reform movement is is
characterized by what he calls suicidal

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empathy. Um, and the and the idea be
being basically it's it's sort of driven

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by a pathological, you know,
take it backwards, a pathological form of

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empathy on the one hand. Um, which is,
you know, it's sort of a deep desire to

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be nice. Um, and empathetic um,
you know, but but coupled with like

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basically you know, a sort of
self-destructiveness, you know, either a

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willingness to really cause damage
to the people you claim to be speaking for

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or by the way to cause damage
to yourself kind of in that process. And

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and it's the kind of thing where you
know if you've you know you know if

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you've lived through you know like
everybody who you know everybody in San

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Francisco's lived through this for the
last decade and seen the consequences of

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these movements. I [clears throat] you
know the San Francisco version of this

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is like the the quote harm reduction
movement you know that ended up

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basically handing out you know free
drug you know paraphernia and you know in

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some cases actually just free drugs
to you know people who are just literally

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dying in the street from drug addiction.

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Right. So so so you just look at it and
you're like well yeah that that you know

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they they claim to be activists they
claim to be reformers. they claim to

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care about these people and yet they're
killing them or or um and then killing

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the city um and causing innocent people
to get get harmed. It's like okay that

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you know you know that that that you
know they seem so actively like that

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they're doing it out of some sense
of compassion that this must be suicidal

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empathy. Um the problem [laughter]
with it is and I think that the problem

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is the theory is sort of easily
falsifiable or or maybe let's lets the

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reformers off the hook which is they
certainly don't show empathy to their

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enemies, right?
And so if they're like if they're

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like all empathetic, you would think
that they would be less aggro uh when it

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comes to destroying their ideological
opponents, you know, who they act, you

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know, they take great delight in trying
to wreck. Um number one, on the one

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hand, and then and then number two
is they they use the you know, the classic

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reformer move is to use use these
movements to gain to gain power and

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status and money for themselves. And you
know, again, San Francisco's a case

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study of this where you have all these,
you know, nonprofits that, you know,

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recall this damage on the city and yet,
you know, basically get like lavishly

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funded, you know, including, by the way,
by the city government, by the state

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government. Um, and so it's just like,
okay, well, like just like they're not,

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if you just like spend two seconds
thinking about it, like it, you know,

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they're neither empathetic nor nor
are they suicidal, right? Right? Rather

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quite the opposite. They're hateful
and they're and they're and they're and

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they're greedy. You know, they're
sort of self- aggrandizing um and and

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gathering power and resources
for themselves. Um, and so I just I just

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think it it it lets it lets the
phenomenon off the hook, you know, it's

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a little bit like, "Oh, Eric, what's
your biggest flaw?" You know, "Oh, I'm

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too nice." >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
I care too much. Right. Exactly.

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It's like, yeah, don't Like,
I I By the way, Eric, I don't know. I

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don't know what your biggest flaw is.

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Like, it's definitely like, it's
definitely not that because that's also

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definitely not my flaw. Like, I I
guarantee I have other things wrong with

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me that are like way more wrong than that.

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>> Yeah. >> Um, and so I
I I just I Yeah. I can't I

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I I hit my limit on on on on on that
topic. And maybe a maybe a crazy example

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of this and I'm not sure if all the all
the facts are out yet, but but it was a

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situation a week ago, but it hasn't been

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covered, you know, that that much. the

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SPLC incident. Is it accurate that

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basically what was happening or is it
our understanding that basically the

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groups that they were um sort of

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fighting the most or or thought were the

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biggest threats to um sort of you
know what they care about also the same

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groups that they were secretly funding
unbeknownst to those to to those groups

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or how do we make sense of what was
actually happening there and is that is

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that indicative of what's of of of
something bigger happening and it's

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funny because that happened the day
after we had a conversation about

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astrourfing and I was uh and I was like
is it really happening to the degree

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that that uh you know people are or sort
of conspiracies are are things like that

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really happening and it's just funny
that more and more seem to get uncovered.

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>> Yeah. And so I should start by saying
the reason why this situation really

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matters and actually I think matters
a lot is the the SPLC specifically um and

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other groups like it as well but the SPLC
specifically played a dominant role

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in the debanking and censorship
and cancellation programs of the last 15

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years. Um, and I cannot tell you how
I I was in so many meetings in so many

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contexts with so many companies um where
the SPLC's word was was gospel. Like it

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was just like, oh, it's the SPLC that it
was almost like they're the outsourced

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US Department of I don't know, racism
detection or something. It's just like

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if the SPLC's says you're bad, you're bad.
Um, and and you're bad means you

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get kicked off of all the social media
platforms. It means you get debanked. It

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means you can't get a job. It means like
just like it's just like total absolute

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like, you know, social economic death.

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Um, and and in my view, you know,
I've been very vocal on the debanking and

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censorship topics. In my view,
that includes, you know, very deeply

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unamerican and I think in many cases
unconstitutional removal of both free

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speech rights and also u literally the
ability to to bank. Um, and in fact, you

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know, our partner Ben's father himself
was was was specifically tagged and

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attacked by the SPLC for for unfairly
very unfairly uh for being racist. Um,

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and was himself debanked um and you
know, really like directly threatened

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his livelihood um in a in a really,
you know, egregious way. um you know and

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then and then by the way
the significance of this is of course it's

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not literally the US department of racism
it's actually arguably worse than

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that it's not a government agency and so
it's not subject to like any level of

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government oversight it's not you know
it's a completely you know as I say it's

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an NGO right um and so it's it lives
in this like twilight world you know it

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doesn't have the you know business
responsibilities of a company it doesn't

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have any of the um any of the legal um
oversight um you know that a government

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agency has it lives in this kind
of twilight world where it gets to do you

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know fundamentally gets to do whatever
it wants um and then by the way on top

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of that you raises raises money as a
nonprofit. Um, so, you know, on top of

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that, everybody gets a tax break. And so,
it's this it's this, you know, kind

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of shadowy thing. Like, if you if you
didn't agree with his politics, you were

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just like, "Wow, like that this is like
a weird star chamber like shadowy thing.

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Like, what the hell?" Um, but like it
had like really really really really

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intense power particularly uh in in
the business world, particularly in the

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financial sector, particularly in Silicon
Valley. Like, it could basically

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it was like a death star uh to be able
to aim it at at obliterating people's

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reputations um uh and rights. Um, and so,
you know, this is a really big deal.

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Um, by the way, um, many of the, uh, big
corporations and and including big tech

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companies funded it directly. Um, and so
the the the money trail on this is not

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not just major philanthropist and
philanthropists and political activists,

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um, but also um, actual, you know,
actual companies. And then, by the way,

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they also had, you know, a long history
of actually cooperation with certain

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government agencies, including, I think
for a long time, they quote unquote

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trained FBI agents um, basically um,
uh, you know, essentially catching, you

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know, you know, racist and therefore,
you know, sort of presumptive um,

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domestic terrorists or something.
Um, and so just like a ve very powerful

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outfit and then you know this this this
this thing that dropped is that they've

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been now criminally indicted by the US
Justice Department and and I should say

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the the indictment is like reads like
a novel that no it's an indictment the

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SPLC in fairness has not had a chance
to present a defense um and so you know

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presumably in court we'll you know we'll
get both sides of this um which I'm sure

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will be an absolutely spellbinding
experience. Um so I I you know of course

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I I want to say you know all all all
of the things that are in the indictment

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are allegations um and innocent until
proven guilty and you know so forth. Um

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you know however the allegations are eye
watering right and the allegations are

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that they they that the SPLC using donor
funds was directly funding among other

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organizations the Klux Clan
and the American Nazi party. [laughter]

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Let me just repeat that. the Ku Klux

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Clan and the American Nazi Party. Um,
as well as an array of other uh sort of uh

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sort of extreme, you know, hate,
you know, you know, literal lit literal

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little literal hate groups. Um, and you
know, and funding them and not just

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funding them, not just like funneling
money in, but like funneling money to

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very senior members or leaders of the
of these organizations. And then the the

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kicker is in in in the among
the allegations is they were directly

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funding one of the leaders of the the
Charlottesville riot. So the the the

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Charlottville riot in 2017 that played
such a central role, you know, in our

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politics, um at the time, you know,
you know, kind of the famous there good

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people on both sides, you know, kind
of thing, you know, which was like one of

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the big crises of of of kind of that of
of kind of that that that that era. Um

00:11:54.560 --> 00:11:57.917
the SPS was directly funding, evidently,
allegedly, they were directly funding

00:11:58.000 --> 00:12:01.917
one of the organizers of the January 6th
riot. Um a and apparently they were also

00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:04.397
paying for transport um for for riers to

00:12:04.480 --> 00:12:08.237
to go to the capital. Um right. And so

00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:12.797
like if this is true, you know, yeah,
I mean, if this is if this, you know, what

00:12:12.880 --> 00:12:14.077
could you conclude if this is true?

00:12:14.160 --> 00:12:16.717
Well, well, number one is like the
allegation is they they broke the law in

00:12:16.800 --> 00:12:19.277
doing that. There's additional
allegations in the DOJ uh you know,

00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:21.597
indictment that they've committed,
you know, money various kinds of

00:12:21.680 --> 00:12:24.877
moneyaundering crimes, you know, other
other kinds of crimes. And so that, you

00:12:24.960 --> 00:12:27.837
know, that that, you know, that's a big
deal. Um, and then and then I've been

00:12:27.920 --> 00:12:30.877
I've been asking the the the obvious
question, which is if any of these

00:12:30.960 --> 00:12:34.877
claims are true, what what did their
donors know? Um and you know were the

00:12:34.960 --> 00:12:37.757
donors all totally oblivious to this or
or did the donors you know work closely

00:12:37.840 --> 00:12:41.197
with them um the also by the way
the companies that worked with them um you

00:12:41.280 --> 00:12:44.077
know did they you know what what did
they know of what was happening and so I

00:12:44.160 --> 00:12:47.357
you know I do wonder whether there's
like a you know I I wonder whether over

00:12:47.440 --> 00:12:49.837
time what we're going to discover
is this was a you know sort of sprawling

00:12:49.920 --> 00:12:53.117
network um you know of which there's
you know a legal the legal term would be

00:12:53.200 --> 00:12:56.477
conspiracy um you know that was that
was going on around this and so I I think

00:12:56.560 --> 00:13:00.877
this needs to be f fully unressed um
you know look the other thing is you know

00:13:00.960 --> 00:13:05.117
this raises the obvious question is were
they the only one. Um, and so there's a

00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:07.997
variety of these groups that had, you
know, degrees of the kind of power that

00:13:08.080 --> 00:13:11.037
I was talking about. Um, and you know,
tremendous amounts of funding along the

00:13:11.120 --> 00:13:14.957
way um, and the ability to basically
again direct some combination of of of

00:13:15.040 --> 00:13:19.197
state and government uh, state and uh,
and um, and private sector, you know,

00:13:19.280 --> 00:13:21.837
sort of obliteration raise um, uh, at

00:13:21.920 --> 00:13:26.317
uh, at at at American citizens. Um,
there have been rumors for years, you

00:13:26.400 --> 00:13:28.957
know, on I mean there's been rumors for
years on this. There's been, by the way,

00:13:29.040 --> 00:13:31.197
there's been incidents like this in
the past like, you know, this isn't the

00:13:31.280 --> 00:13:35.357
first time this has happened. Um,
but you know, if if if the if if the

00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:37.917
allegations are true and the SPLC
was doing it, I think it raises the very

00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:40.877
direct question of like, okay, who else
who else is? It's hard to believe they

00:13:40.960 --> 00:13:43.917
were the only one. Um, and so who else
is doing it? And then, yeah, and then

00:13:44.000 --> 00:13:47.037
we're back to our astroturfing thing,
um, which is, yeah, we're, you know,

00:13:47.120 --> 00:13:50.557
we're were they constructing
the boogeyman um, you know, that that that

00:13:50.640 --> 00:13:53.437
they claim to be fighting? And by the way,
and this is where you get into the

00:13:53.520 --> 00:13:54.877
sort of self-interest component of it.

00:13:54.960 --> 00:13:57.357
This is where you get back to the
suicidal empathy thing, which is like,

00:13:57.440 --> 00:14:01.197
okay, how how how suicidal is it if
you're the anti-KK group to fund the

00:14:01.280 --> 00:14:04.957
KKK? Like I I don't know, maybe it's
suicidal if people find out about it.

00:14:05.040 --> 00:14:07.917
But if they don't find out about it,
like that's not that's like the o that's

00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:11.117
like the opposite of suicidal because
like wow like would you know wouldn't

00:14:11.200 --> 00:14:14.637
you like to get to like if your if your
group's entire purpose for existing is

00:14:14.720 --> 00:14:17.677
to fight an enemy then you need to make
sure that that enemy exists to do that

00:14:17.760 --> 00:14:21.997
of course of course of course you would
fund them. Um and so yeah you you I

00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:24.637
don't know what is that. That's like the
reverse of the snake eating the tail. Um

00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:28.237
it's the um you know sort of a you
know you're creating a self-fulfilling

00:14:28.320 --> 00:14:33.037
prophecy. Um, and so, yeah, I mean,
look, we're gonna I I mean, this all

00:14:33.120 --> 00:14:36.637
needs to be ventilated. Um, I'm I'm
really fascinated to see like what the

00:14:36.720 --> 00:14:39.277
reality is underneath this, but, you know,
by at the end of the day and what

00:14:39.360 --> 00:14:42.557
this means about what we've all been told
all these years about all these groups. It

00:14:42.640 --> 00:14:46.957
>> it's it's funny. There was a Nathan
Fielder sort of AI, you know, video that

00:14:47.040 --> 00:14:49.757
looked so real, which is he's basically
saying, "Hey, our business model is to

00:14:49.840 --> 00:14:53.997
fight racism. We need to fund more racism.
Uh, and then we'll get more business."

00:14:54.080 --> 00:14:55.917
>> Yes. Correct. Exactly. [laughter] Yeah.

00:14:56.000 --> 00:14:58.557
And one of the things is the lucrative
and again it's because they get they get

00:14:58.640 --> 00:15:02.397
cloaked in this kind of NGO lens. I mean
they they've got you know the amounts of

00:15:02.480 --> 00:15:05.997
money at play are not small. Um you know
they're they're very very low you know I

00:15:06.080 --> 00:15:09.757
don't know the the SPLC has something
like an $800 million endowment. Um and

00:15:09.840 --> 00:15:12.797
you know has an enormous budget.
Um and by the way people get paid a lot of

00:15:12.880 --> 00:15:16.237
money to do this work. Um and and by the
way there's recurring scandals on that

00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:19.037
front also. um you know which is um you
know you get you get a lot of these kind

00:15:19.120 --> 00:15:21.677
of activist uh you know kind
of foundations and so forth where when you

00:15:21.760 --> 00:15:25.357
when you look into it it's like you know
some some giant percentage of the uh of

00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:28.557
their of their of their spending
is going to you know salaries and and and

00:15:28.640 --> 00:15:30.557
expenses for their for their employees.

00:15:30.640 --> 00:15:33.677
Um, and so, and again, they they kind
of they they cloak it in, you know, they

00:15:33.760 --> 00:15:36.317
cloak it in virtue. Um, and then you
kind of look underneath and you're like,

00:15:36.400 --> 00:15:39.997
"Wow, like this is this is, you know,
this is this this is amaz like and by

00:15:40.080 --> 00:15:41.917
the way, like I don't know, it's America.
Maybe they should be allowed to

00:15:42.000 --> 00:15:44.797
do all this, but like maybe we should
not get Yeah, maybe we should not get

00:15:44.880 --> 00:15:48.797
lied to in the process." You know, may
may all this should not get them dressed

00:15:48.880 --> 00:15:51.917
up to make us feel like, you know, our
our whole society is rotten and immoral

00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:54.557
and that and that and that, you know,
deplatforming and censorship are and

00:15:54.640 --> 00:15:58.600
debanking are good ideas.

00:16:17.840 --> 00:16:21.517
you people respond of course with hey
this time is different because it's it's

00:16:21.600 --> 00:16:24.317
it's all potential cognitive work and so

00:16:24.400 --> 00:16:28.877
uh and then there's also this other
statement of hey um you know humans will

00:16:28.960 --> 00:16:32.637
you know differentiate among taste and
agency but it seems like AI can can can

00:16:32.720 --> 00:16:37.517
do that too um and and then there's
al that juxtaposed there's also the

00:16:37.600 --> 00:16:40.477
statement of hey uh it won't replace
a lot of the jobs because a lot of jobs

00:16:40.560 --> 00:16:44.637
are make work anyways. Uh you had this
you know tweet the other day of hey I'

00:16:44.720 --> 00:16:46.797
I've been saying companies have been you

00:16:46.880 --> 00:16:49.917
know two to 4x bloated for a long time

00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:54.157
and people have just been unwilling to
to to to deal with it or or look that in

00:16:54.240 --> 00:16:58.637
the face. So and this presents kind of
a golden opportunity for that. What um so

00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:02.877
why don't you address some of these some
of these topics as it relates to AI and

00:17:02.960 --> 00:17:05.517
jobs of the future as it relates to tech.

00:17:05.600 --> 00:17:07.677
>> Yeah. So we'll come back to the blow
thing. I will say the the funny thing on

00:17:07.760 --> 00:17:10.877
the bloat tweet was the responses have
been along the line. The responses for

00:17:10.960 --> 00:17:13.597
the most part have not been you're wrong.
The responses have been oh no the

00:17:13.680 --> 00:17:18.797
company I used to work at is like 8x
bloated [laughter] >> yeah too generous

00:17:18.880 --> 00:17:21.517
>> right or yeah too generous or you
know the not you know or by the way the

00:17:21.600 --> 00:17:24.637
nonprofit or the you know whatever the you
know whatever kind of institution uh

00:17:24.720 --> 00:17:26.077
you know agency I used to work for.

00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:29.517
>> Well well Twitter proved it right
cutting 70% or 80% and then it's running

00:17:29.600 --> 00:17:33.437
you know better or as good as it was
before at at least and it's probably not

00:17:33.520 --> 00:17:37.597
the only it's not the exception. I I I
mean, look, I I don't even know. Uh and

00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:40.317
you know, if I knew I wouldn't say, but

00:17:40.400 --> 00:17:43.647
like I like I think Twitter is way down

00:17:43.730 --> 00:17:46.957
[laughter] from the 80%.

00:17:47.040 --> 00:17:50.717
I think there I don't know if the number
for sure the number has a nine on it. Um

00:17:50.800 --> 00:17:54.957
if not if not if not a high nines. Um so
yeah, no, he's really he's as usual with

00:17:55.040 --> 00:17:57.917
Elon, he's really demonstrated he's
really u forecasted the future through

00:17:58.000 --> 00:18:02.237
his own actions. Um yeah, so um yeah,
so a couple things. So one is I mean look

00:18:02.320 --> 00:18:04.797
there there's just this endless you
know there's this endless I mean there's

00:18:04.880 --> 00:18:07.917
literally been a 300-year argument
about about about about mechanization,

00:18:08.000 --> 00:18:11.197
industrialization, technology,
computers, software uh replacing human

00:18:11.280 --> 00:18:13.837
labor causing unemployment, you know,
lower wages and unemployment. You know,

00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:17.197
it's it's been a 300-year argument.
I I you know, quite frankly, I'm even

00:18:17.280 --> 00:18:19.357
wondering at this point whether it's
even worth having that argument because

00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:21.837
people really really deeply
don't want to hear it.

00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:25.357
>> Um and what I find is I I I you know,
I go through it. Many other people, by the

00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:28.317
way, there's great books on this topic
and there have been for hundreds of

00:18:28.400 --> 00:18:32.237
years. Um um and um people have talked
about this for a long time. You know,

00:18:32.320 --> 00:18:34.557
people really, this is one of those
things where people really don't want to

00:18:34.640 --> 00:18:38.557
hear good news. Um and so, you know,
it's it's actually even hard to have a

00:18:38.640 --> 00:18:41.197
discussion about it because people
actually won't they're so dug in on this

00:18:41.280 --> 00:18:43.597
that they actually won't even engage
on the topic. They just keep repeating the

00:18:43.680 --> 00:18:47.197
same kind of repeating the same fallacy
over and over again. So, so you know, we

00:18:47.280 --> 00:18:49.677
we could go through that. I guess the
the more interesting thing to say though

00:18:49.760 --> 00:18:53.437
is just like we have data now. Um and um
you know, because now we now now we have

00:18:53.520 --> 00:18:56.637
AI and now we have data. So, we can like
look at what's actually happening. Um

00:18:56.720 --> 00:18:59.437
and I would just make a couple
of observations. Um so one is there was

00:18:59.520 --> 00:19:03.677
actually jobs jobs data just came out
today. Um as a situation to monitor and

00:19:03.760 --> 00:19:05.677
you know it's sort of unexpectedly good.

00:19:05.760 --> 00:19:09.597
Um and so you know you know and and by
the way the the jobs data overall in the

00:19:09.680 --> 00:19:12.077
last couple years has been has
been interesting because the federal

00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:14.637
government has actually shed you know
has shed a lot of workers. I think the

00:19:14.720 --> 00:19:18.157
federal government is down estimates
are as much as 400,000 uh workers in the

00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:21.437
federal government um since Trump took
office the second time. So, so private

00:19:21.520 --> 00:19:24.317
sector uh employment is actually way
down and then private sector employment

00:19:24.400 --> 00:19:27.117
is way up and then the net result I
think for the last quarter was actually

00:19:27.200 --> 00:19:30.957
very positive. Um and so like is in
other words like the the reported jobs

00:19:31.040 --> 00:19:33.597
numbers are even more impressive than
they look because the private sector

00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:36.717
growth actually has to make up for the
public sector decline which means the

00:19:36.800 --> 00:19:39.677
private sector job growth is actually
much better um than than people were

00:19:39.760 --> 00:19:43.037
expecting. And again like this is in the
face of like actual AI you know staring

00:19:43.120 --> 00:19:46.317
us in the face and you know being being
rapidly adopted and so okay like the

00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:49.597
data is you know there you know there's
more data. Um and then the other thing

00:19:49.680 --> 00:19:51.997
that you know that's sort of macro data
and then there's the micro data which is

00:19:52.080 --> 00:19:55.437
the world we live in. Um and the micro
data is you know that sort of obvious

00:19:55.520 --> 00:19:58.717
question is you know if you live
in Silicon Valley or work in San Francisco

00:19:58.800 --> 00:20:01.997
you undoubtedly have friends who are you
know computer programmers. Those friends

00:20:02.080 --> 00:20:05.357
you know some percentage of those
friends are early adopters of AI coding.

00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:08.477
um you know you would you would you you
can just observe their behavior and of

00:20:08.560 --> 00:20:11.597
course the if you believe in the you
know kind of the the the lite you know

00:20:11.680 --> 00:20:14.157
kind of zero sum argument you would
expect that they would be working less

00:20:14.240 --> 00:20:17.197
and less and and then rapidly become be
becoming you know and getting paid less

00:20:17.280 --> 00:20:20.637
and less by the way and be rapidly
becoming unemployed and in fact the

00:20:20.720 --> 00:20:23.597
observed the observed behavior of what's
happening is very clear which is the

00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:25.597
opposite uh which is those people are

00:20:25.680 --> 00:20:27.437
becoming uh what we now refer to as AI

00:20:27.520 --> 00:20:31.037
vampires um by which I mean um they're

00:20:31.120 --> 00:20:34.477
uh their the individual programmer's
productivity an individual programmer

00:20:34.560 --> 00:20:38.477
who is, you know, uh, Codeex or Cloud
Code or one of these, uh, AI coding

00:20:38.560 --> 00:20:41.997
systems. Just the thing that you just
now see over and over again at at at at

00:20:42.080 --> 00:20:45.117
at at at at at at at on the ground
level is, um, they're working harder than

00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:48.077
ever. Um, they're they're working just
like more hours than ever. And then the

00:20:48.160 --> 00:20:52.077
AI vampire thing is literally this thing
where they stop sleeping. Um, and and

00:20:52.160 --> 00:20:54.397
then when you when you when you like
talk to them, it's actually really

00:20:54.480 --> 00:20:58.077
funny. Um, because um, they're like they
and I have a whole bunch of friends like

00:20:58.160 --> 00:21:00.477
this. They're blurry. Like they've
got these huge bags under their eyes.

00:21:00.560 --> 00:21:03.997
They're completely exhausted. Um, and
but they're like euphoric. like they're

00:21:04.080 --> 00:21:06.957
thrilled like they're having the absolute
time of their life. By the way,

00:21:07.040 --> 00:21:09.517
a fair number of people who we we
both know, you know, literally they're

00:21:09.600 --> 00:21:12.557
they're former programmers who stopped
coding at one point. Um and then all of

00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:15.197
a sudden, you know, have picked it
back up again. Um and then, you know,

00:21:15.280 --> 00:21:18.157
actually we have partners uh you know,
you and I have partners at the firm who

00:21:18.240 --> 00:21:21.197
actually have never coded who are now
like ripping out software like crazy and

00:21:21.280 --> 00:21:24.237
and again they've they've turned
in [laughter] they've turned into AI

00:21:24.320 --> 00:21:27.117
vampires. I won't name names because
I'll let him tell his own story, but we

00:21:27.200 --> 00:21:30.637
have one partner who's built an entire
AI system for everything that he does at

00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:33.597
work and he is absolutely excited about
it and it's it works great and he loves

00:21:33.680 --> 00:21:37.517
it. Um, and it's like his partner in all
of his work now. Um, and I asked him I

00:21:37.600 --> 00:21:41.677
said uh uh I said uh have did you know
have you looked at you know he vibed the

00:21:41.760 --> 00:21:43.437
whole thing and I said you know have
you looked at the have you looked at the

00:21:43.520 --> 00:21:47.677
code and he's like hell no. [snorts] Um
uh you knowve I've never done that and I

00:21:47.760 --> 00:21:50.237
said you know have you have you ever
looked at any software code and he's

00:21:50.320 --> 00:21:53.597
like hell no. [snorts] he doesn't
have, you know, he's not he's

00:21:53.680 --> 00:21:55.037
not a programmer by background.

00:21:55.120 --> 00:21:59.677
>> Um, and yet all of a sudden he's he's
he's hyperproductive. Um, and so you've

00:21:59.760 --> 00:22:02.077
got this, you got, of course, the
phenomenon which is sort of exactly what

00:22:02.160 --> 00:22:05.037
classic economics would predict, which
is if you increase marginal productivity

00:22:05.120 --> 00:22:07.277
of the worker, you don't have
a diminishment of human work, you have an

00:22:07.360 --> 00:22:10.237
expansion of human work. Um, you make
the worker more productive, therefore

00:22:10.320 --> 00:22:13.277
the worker works more um and and gets
paid more and there are more more jobs

00:22:13.360 --> 00:22:17.037
in the process. Um, and so it's it's
it's the opposite of what of what of of

00:22:17.120 --> 00:22:19.757
what all the doomers say. So so we're
seeing that at the level of these

00:22:19.840 --> 00:22:22.237
individuals. And then and then
by the way what you see kind of inside

00:22:22.320 --> 00:22:25.597
companies um inside employers of these
individuals is of course these people

00:22:25.680 --> 00:22:28.637
are now in even more demand than they
were before. They they are they are

00:22:28.720 --> 00:22:32.877
garnering higher salaries than they were
before. Um and um and then by the way

00:22:32.960 --> 00:22:35.277
their pro and by the way their
productivity is just is just starting to

00:22:35.360 --> 00:22:38.957
ramp up right like the the everything
that I'm describing and like you know

00:22:39.040 --> 00:22:41.677
like at our leading edge companies
estimates are the leading edge

00:22:41.760 --> 00:22:44.557
programmers are like 20x more productive
than they were a year ago. Like it's

00:22:44.640 --> 00:22:47.437
like a it's like the most dramatic
increase in pro programmer productivity

00:22:47.520 --> 00:22:52.317
in like ever. Um and and so again
logically people get paid according to

00:22:52.400 --> 00:22:54.797
their marginal productivity and you're
also seeing that track in the

00:22:54.880 --> 00:22:58.077
compensation data or I'm seeing that
on the ground in the companies which is

00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:01.437
that the the the more hyperproductive
a coder becomes all of a sudden the more

00:23:01.520 --> 00:23:04.317
bargaining power that they have um
you know for for their compensation and

00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:09.277
we're we're seeing comp uh for those
people uh ramp up quickly. Um and so I I

00:23:09.360 --> 00:23:11.677
just it's just kind of like it's just
kind of staring us in the face and and

00:23:11.760 --> 00:23:15.597
and coding of course coding is like the
first domain in which this has happened.

00:23:15.680 --> 00:23:17.917
Now people want to project forward
and say this is going to happen in every

00:23:18.000 --> 00:23:21.997
area of knowledge work. Um uh and then
um you know I think you can predict a

00:23:22.080 --> 00:23:25.997
similar outcome. And then that gets
us to the bloat topic. Um which is of

00:23:26.080 --> 00:23:28.397
course the the other thing that's
happening is of course companies are now

00:23:28.480 --> 00:23:31.997
seeing big layoffs. Um and and then you
know of course immediately it's like you

00:23:32.080 --> 00:23:35.197
know two plus two must equal four.
And so if it's AI coding it must therefore

00:23:35.280 --> 00:23:37.837
translate into into layoffs.
And you know Mark you're wrong. you know,

00:23:37.920 --> 00:23:40.317
therefore all of your ideas are wrong
because that's evidence that the you

00:23:40.400 --> 00:23:42.797
know, these companies are wiping out
their um you know, they're they're

00:23:42.880 --> 00:23:46.317
they're reducing their their workforces
or are really nuking them because of AI

00:23:46.400 --> 00:23:48.797
coding. And I and I guess there again,
this is like maybe the inside inside

00:23:48.880 --> 00:23:50.797
baseball take on it is but I I see it. I

00:23:50.880 --> 00:23:54.557
see it uh up close, which is just every

00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:57.837
every major Silicon Valley company
is overstaffed. Um every major Silicon

00:23:57.920 --> 00:24:01.437
Valley company's been overstaffed
basically forever. They all know it. Um

00:24:01.520 --> 00:24:05.357
there's a whole variety of reasons why
it's the case. Um uh by the way I think

00:24:05.440 --> 00:24:09.037
this is true basically of just like you
know corporate America broadly uh you

00:24:09.120 --> 00:24:13.517
know companies broadly we we we can talk
in in detail about why that's the case

00:24:13.600 --> 00:24:15.997
because it it flies in the face of the
idea that these companies optimize for

00:24:16.080 --> 00:24:21.117
profits which they definitely do not.
Um like the one thing that is the least

00:24:21.200 --> 00:24:23.117
true claim in the world [snorts]
is the companies are optimized for

00:24:23.200 --> 00:24:28.797
profitability which is 100% not true.
Um uh and so um and so you know and then

00:24:28.880 --> 00:24:32.237
you know basically if you're going to do
a big cut like if if you want to do a

00:24:32.320 --> 00:24:35.997
big cut if you want to take out you know
whether it's 15% or 40% or whatever like

00:24:36.080 --> 00:24:38.717
obviously you want to you want
a scapegoat right you just you want to peg

00:24:38.800 --> 00:24:43.197
it on something um and so of course it's
going to get pegged on AI and again and

00:24:43.280 --> 00:24:46.397
say like it's not like it's not like
it's just like a straight lie like it it

00:24:46.480 --> 00:24:49.917
is simultaneously true that there's
there are these massive you know for the

00:24:50.000 --> 00:24:52.637
same amount of coding you can now have
fewer people using tools like that is

00:24:52.720 --> 00:24:54.957
true and so do you need as many
aggregate number of programmers if

00:24:55.040 --> 00:24:57.277
you're generating the same amount of code.
No, you don't. And so you can take

00:24:57.360 --> 00:25:00.077
out people um on the other side.
So there is truth to that. But what that

00:25:00.160 --> 00:25:02.717
misses is is what what happens on the
other side of that, which is of course

00:25:02.800 --> 00:25:04.797
you're not just going to be generating
the same amount of code in the future.

00:25:04.880 --> 00:25:07.117
You're going to be generating a lot more
code. You're going to be building a lot

00:25:07.200 --> 00:25:10.077
more products a lot more quickly. Um and
that and that's going to fuel, you know,

00:25:10.160 --> 00:25:13.997
enormous amounts of employment growth
on the other side. Um and so so I so I I

00:25:14.080 --> 00:25:17.037
think you're seeing both uh basically
both both both phenomena play out and

00:25:17.120 --> 00:25:19.597
and you kind of have to read
the announcements coming out of these

00:25:19.680 --> 00:25:22.557
companies in code uh because of the
the kind of those two the way those two

00:25:22.640 --> 00:25:26.477
dynamics are crossing. >> Yeah.
Um that's that's well said. There

00:25:26.560 --> 00:25:28.317
was a article that was going viral in

00:25:28.400 --> 00:25:31.357
our circles the other uh week about the

00:25:31.440 --> 00:25:35.597
jobs of the future. Um and Yonyi
Recman he said there's there's there's

00:25:35.680 --> 00:25:36.957
possibility the only jobs in tech

00:25:37.040 --> 00:25:39.117
companies are going to be one product

00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:43.277
engineer vibecoders slop cannon two uh

00:25:43.360 --> 00:25:47.757
you know infra security systems three
the adults in the room you know like

00:25:47.840 --> 00:25:50.157
legal and finance and then four hot

00:25:50.240 --> 00:25:54.477
people uh slash personality hires. Um

00:25:54.560 --> 00:25:58.637
any any any truth in this or you
know what do we make sense of this?

00:25:58.720 --> 00:26:00.557
>> What are the what do
the hot people do exactly?

00:26:00.640 --> 00:26:03.837
>> Uh range sales people uh you know

00:26:03.920 --> 00:26:07.597
customer support uh there will always be
an important place for those who present

00:26:07.680 --> 00:26:11.597
easy UX to the world and are pleasant to
be around. There are many ways to be hot.

00:26:11.680 --> 00:26:14.237
>> Otherwise known as the pharmaceutical
sales rep. [clears throat and laughter]

00:26:14.320 --> 00:26:17.357
Yes or >> or the Oracle
or the Oracle sales rep.

00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:22.077
So um yeah. So uh yes exactly. So um
yeah I mean look this is going to happen

00:26:22.160 --> 00:26:24.797
like the well well not literally that
but like the jobs are the jobs are going

00:26:24.880 --> 00:26:27.197
to change. I mean this is sort
of the obvious thing and this this always

00:26:27.280 --> 00:26:30.557
happens. The jobs are going to change
you know by the way so there's like a

00:26:30.640 --> 00:26:33.037
nent concept that that is actually
playing out I'm seeing in a bunch of the

00:26:33.120 --> 00:26:35.437
early leading edge companies in the
valley which is they're they're kind of

00:26:35.520 --> 00:26:40.397
circling around a a job title could
loosely call builder um or or something

00:26:40.480 --> 00:26:43.757
like it. And and basically the idea
is that you had these separate jobs in the

00:26:43.840 --> 00:26:47.837
past of programmer product manager and
designer. Um, and I I've been describing

00:26:47.920 --> 00:26:50.317
what's happening in the valley companies
as sort of this three-way Mexican

00:26:50.400 --> 00:26:53.757
standoff. Uh, where the programmers
think that they can they don't need the

00:26:53.840 --> 00:26:56.157
product managers and the designers
anymore because they can have AI do

00:26:56.240 --> 00:26:58.717
that. And then each of the other two
doesn't think that they need the other

00:26:58.800 --> 00:27:01.597
two either. Um, and and what I've been
predicting is like that they're all

00:27:01.680 --> 00:27:05.037
they're all correct. Um, you know,
the the product manager can generate code

00:27:05.120 --> 00:27:08.317
and design now and you know, so each
of them can do the job of all three. Um,

00:27:08.400 --> 00:27:11.597
and so the idea is the job's changed
and so now now the job is builder. Um, and

00:27:11.680 --> 00:27:14.557
you might come into the builder, you
might get on the builder track by coming

00:27:14.640 --> 00:27:18.397
out of coding or product management,
um, or, um, design or or maybe even

00:27:18.480 --> 00:27:20.557
something else, customer service, um, or

00:27:20.640 --> 00:27:25.677
whatever. Um, and, um, and and and but
but you you you then become responsible

00:27:25.760 --> 00:27:28.637
for building, you know, building
complete products. Um, and and and

00:27:28.720 --> 00:27:31.197
again, you have this kind of, you know,
you're you're super empowered by the the

00:27:31.280 --> 00:27:34.317
the AI that can help fill in all
the things that are not directly in your

00:27:34.400 --> 00:27:37.837
background. Um, and so like I think I
think it's entirely possible that we're

00:27:37.920 --> 00:27:40.557
sitting here in 10 years, you know,
in 20 years or whatever and like the, you

00:27:40.640 --> 00:27:43.837
know, the job of coder is gone, but you
have this just, you know, extraordinary

00:27:43.920 --> 00:27:46.877
number of number of builders running
around. And again, by the way, this is

00:27:46.960 --> 00:27:50.797
the historical pattern, right? And so um
I think our partner David George uh did

00:27:50.880 --> 00:27:53.757
a post um on this this week, but it's
I forget the exact numbers, but it's

00:27:53.840 --> 00:27:57.037
something, you know, some some giant
percentage of the jobs that existed in,

00:27:57.120 --> 00:28:00.957
you know, call it 1940 were like gone
by 1970. Um, and they're like ancient

00:28:01.040 --> 00:28:05.197
history today. Um, right. Um and I mean
the ultimate example of this is you know

00:28:05.280 --> 00:28:09.197
United States 200 years ago like 99%
of the people in the US were farming. Um

00:28:09.280 --> 00:28:12.877
and today it's like 2%. And having you
know grown up in farm country I can tell

00:28:12.960 --> 00:28:15.917
you all these people who worry about you
know job loss and job change would not

00:28:16.000 --> 00:28:18.717
like to go back and be farmers.
I guarantee that. And particularly they

00:28:18.800 --> 00:28:21.357
would not like to go back and be farmers
the way people were farming in 1800.

00:28:21.440 --> 00:28:24.877
Like they definitely don't want to do
that. Um and so the new jobs that have

00:28:24.960 --> 00:28:28.477
been created of course are far better
jobs. Um and that isn't to you know

00:28:28.560 --> 00:28:31.997
understate the the level of you know
kind of stress in in in individual

00:28:32.080 --> 00:28:35.997
people's lives as as the economy changes
but in aggregate the result is evolution

00:28:36.080 --> 00:28:39.277
towards um you know toward towards
higher income and and um and sort of

00:28:39.360 --> 00:28:43.517
more um you know jobs that people are
are happier to do. Um, by the way, you

00:28:43.600 --> 00:28:46.637
can also see all of this playing out
in the American economy broadly. Um, which

00:28:46.720 --> 00:28:50.317
is the the American economy is um that
that there again there's this kind and

00:28:50.400 --> 00:28:52.637
there's this kind of doomer narrative or
there has been for a long time that like

00:28:52.720 --> 00:28:56.077
the American middle class is is is
is falling apart and the the sort of

00:28:56.160 --> 00:28:58.397
presumption of that is that all the
middle class people are kind of falling

00:28:58.480 --> 00:29:01.517
off the ledge and becoming becoming
lower class. But actually the and by the

00:29:01.600 --> 00:29:04.157
way there is some of that and you know
there's there are communities in which

00:29:04.240 --> 00:29:06.957
that's very clearly happening. But having
said that there there is at least

00:29:07.040 --> 00:29:09.597
as much or more of the other phenomenon
which is people in the middle class

00:29:09.680 --> 00:29:12.877
climbing the ladder into the upper
middle class. um and u you know rapidly

00:29:12.960 --> 00:29:15.517
gaining um in in wealth and income um

00:29:15.600 --> 00:29:19.997
and um um and and it just and again just
like quality of life um you know for for

00:29:20.080 --> 00:29:23.277
themselves and for their kids and their
grandkids um you know as time passes and

00:29:23.360 --> 00:29:26.237
and and that is a consequence of actual

00:29:26.320 --> 00:29:30.477
economic development, technological
change, job transformation actually

00:29:30.560 --> 00:29:34.237
being allowed to happen um is you know
20 years later you're you look back and

00:29:34.320 --> 00:29:37.197
you're just like oh thank god like this
is just a much better world u you know

00:29:37.280 --> 00:29:40.877
for for me and my family than it was
before. Um, and so this is why like I'm

00:29:40.960 --> 00:29:44.317
so optim I like I I think you know,
God willing, like we're entering a golden

00:29:44.400 --> 00:29:48.157
age on on this topic, which is a AI
is going to be a superpower that everybody

00:29:48.240 --> 00:29:50.557
in the country and everybody in the
planet is going to have access to.

00:29:50.640 --> 00:29:52.957
Everybody's going to become far more
capable at whatever it is that they that

00:29:53.040 --> 00:29:55.997
they that they want to do. Um, they're
going to become far more productive in

00:29:56.080 --> 00:29:57.197
whatever line of work that they're in.

00:29:57.280 --> 00:30:00.157
Um, they're going to get, you know,
they're going to get compensated. The

00:30:00.240 --> 00:30:03.917
economy naturally uh compensates
according to according to productivity.

00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:07.357
Uh, so they they'll get uh they'll get
compensated that way. the you know there

00:30:07.440 --> 00:30:11.597
will be a rapidly rising ladder of of
of of both incomes and number of jobs and

00:30:11.680 --> 00:30:14.877
and my my prediction again consistent
with history is the extent to which

00:30:14.960 --> 00:30:17.917
that's a positive phenomenon is a
function to the degree to which it's

00:30:18.000 --> 00:30:22.717
actually allowed to happen um and and then
of course Europe is is going to run

00:30:22.800 --> 00:30:24.877
the [snorts] opposite you know test
which is they're going to try to prevent

00:30:24.960 --> 00:30:28.237
all this from happening and and again
I think the data is already in there um

00:30:28.320 --> 00:30:30.877
which is they're you know they've been
they've been falling very badly behind

00:30:30.960 --> 00:30:33.197
economically and they're going
to continue to fall further and further

00:30:33.280 --> 00:30:37.437
behind uh the US and and it's it's
it's a tragedy because It's a 100% a

00:30:37.520 --> 00:30:39.677
self-inflicted self-inflicted wound.

00:30:39.760 --> 00:30:44.877
>> Yeah. The um that's well said.
You you were also we

00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:48.477
talked about and you've written
about how AI psychosis. There's an AI

00:30:48.560 --> 00:30:49.837
psychosis summit apparently happening.

00:30:49.920 --> 00:30:51.597
I'm not sure if that's real or a parody.

00:30:51.680 --> 00:30:54.717
Um I haven't looked into it but I'm
curious how you make sense of this

00:30:54.800 --> 00:30:57.837
phenomenon. You've also written about
so you you tweeted the other day sort of

00:30:57.920 --> 00:31:01.757
the opposite of AI psychosis is is cope
AI cope. Uh maybe you talk about the

00:31:01.840 --> 00:31:04.557
both sides. >> Yeah.
I also identified earlier

00:31:04.640 --> 00:31:09.437
identified the concept of AI
psychosis psychosis [laughter]

00:31:09.520 --> 00:31:10.877
which we can we can also talk about.

00:31:10.960 --> 00:31:14.237
>> Let's unpack it as well. >> Um
yeah so first of all the AI psychosis

00:31:14.320 --> 00:31:18.317
summit did in fact happen. Um I was not
there but I am assured that it did. Uh

00:31:18.400 --> 00:31:21.677
some very very smart and creative people
put that on in New York I think late

00:31:21.760 --> 00:31:25.677
last week I think maybe about a week ago.
Um and uh it was an art it's like

00:31:25.760 --> 00:31:28.557
an art it's essentially an art project
and it was basically art artists and

00:31:28.640 --> 00:31:31.997
creative people who were um who got
together and like fully indulge their uh

00:31:32.080 --> 00:31:35.997
their AI psychosis um [snorts] in in the
form of creating new art uh using using

00:31:36.080 --> 00:31:39.917
AI and um I yeah I would definitely
recommend people should should go uh

00:31:40.000 --> 00:31:42.957
should [snorts] go go on go on excellent
search on AI psychosis summit and take a

00:31:43.040 --> 00:31:45.437
look because it's it's it's incredibly
creative and I and I think it's

00:31:45.520 --> 00:31:48.477
fantastic because it's it's you know
it's a it's a you know it's a it's a

00:31:48.560 --> 00:31:53.197
little bit tongue-in-cheek but also it's
it's a you know there is a real split

00:31:53.280 --> 00:31:55.757
that's developed in the artistic
community, the creative community in

00:31:55.840 --> 00:31:58.637
Hollywood. Um, and there are people
who are staking out kind of very extreme

00:31:58.720 --> 00:32:02.077
positions on pro AI, anti-AI. Um, and

00:32:02.160 --> 00:32:04.157
uh, it's generating a lot a lot of heat.

00:32:04.240 --> 00:32:07.997
Um, and and so this this was a I think
this was a nice example of like no

00:32:08.080 --> 00:32:10.717
actually like in a in a world of AI
like creatives are going to have again

00:32:10.800 --> 00:32:12.637
creatives are going to have all these
superpowers. They're going to be able to

00:32:12.720 --> 00:32:16.477
create all kinds of art that wasn't
possible before. Um, and then of course,

00:32:16.560 --> 00:32:20.397
you know, this whole topic, you can
create art about this topic. Um uh so I

00:32:20.480 --> 00:32:24.317
I thought that I think all the stuff
that was there was very creative. Um

00:32:24.400 --> 00:32:28.317
yeah and then uh yeah so so uh yeah so
okay so my concept so so AI psychosis so

00:32:28.400 --> 00:32:30.797
AI psychosis is is a is a pjorative uh

00:32:30.880 --> 00:32:33.917
so AI psychosis is the idea that um if

00:32:34.000 --> 00:32:38.077
um uh if if u it's the idea that
basically people get whammy by the AI.

00:32:38.160 --> 00:32:40.637
So the [snorts] you know the the classic
example is through what's called

00:32:40.720 --> 00:32:43.757
syphency. So it's it's basically like
you you know you tell Cloud you've

00:32:43.840 --> 00:32:46.397
discovered you know a new um you know
you know you have a new idea for an

00:32:46.480 --> 00:32:51.437
anti-gravity machine and Claude says oh
that's amazing like that's amazing like

00:32:51.520 --> 00:32:54.397
you've achieved a giant breakthrough
at physics like nobody else has ever

00:32:54.480 --> 00:32:58.077
thought of this before you are
an underappreciated genius and you know I

00:32:58.160 --> 00:33:00.557
it's so unfair that you couldn't
get admitted to the you know physics

00:33:00.640 --> 00:33:03.357
department at MIT and you know you
know they're all going to feel like

00:33:03.440 --> 00:33:06.557
completely stupid when they see this work
that you've done um and so you know

00:33:06.640 --> 00:33:09.677
kind of people go down this rabbit hole
and and I and again in fairness I should

00:33:09.760 --> 00:33:13.757
also say like if if people are prone If
people are prone to delusion and and an

00:33:13.840 --> 00:33:16.877
AI is overly sick of sickopantic like
then it it is going to feed delusions

00:33:16.960 --> 00:33:20.077
and so there is a there is kind of a
kind of serious element to that among

00:33:20.160 --> 00:33:23.757
people who are kind of predisposed to
that kind of thing. Um but but but again

00:33:23.840 --> 00:33:27.277
it's like okay yes there there be some
number of those cases but that causes

00:33:27.360 --> 00:33:30.957
kind of AI critics or AI doomers
to basically say anybody therefore who

00:33:31.040 --> 00:33:34.877
reports a positive productive experience
with AI has fallen into AI psychosis

00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:37.917
right and so anybody who actually
is like wow my productivity is way up or

00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:40.477
wow I really have a thought partner
for the first time in my work or wow I

00:33:40.560 --> 00:33:42.157
really have been able to produce
something that I never would have been

00:33:42.240 --> 00:33:45.197
able to produce before you know that's
sort of all bucketed under you know they

00:33:45.280 --> 00:33:49.277
they all have they all have AI psychosis
um which I which I and then that led me

00:33:49.360 --> 00:33:53.437
to my my my co my AI cope, right? Which
is the other side of it, which is like

00:33:53.520 --> 00:33:57.437
AI cope is classifying anybody who has
a positive experience with AI as being an

00:33:57.520 --> 00:34:02.317
AI psychosis. Um, and and and and you
know, AI cope is this thing where in,

00:34:02.400 --> 00:34:05.837
you know, concentrated in certain places
on the planet, um, where people are just

00:34:05.920 --> 00:34:09.277
like absolutely hellbent on proving
to themselves and everybody else that this

00:34:09.360 --> 00:34:12.957
whole thing is a complete, you know,
fraud, fake, you know, is a sta there's

00:34:13.040 --> 00:34:17.357
a term stochastic parrot, a is fake,
it doesn't work. Um, and if anybody's

00:34:17.440 --> 00:34:21.517
having a good experience, um, uh,
you know, they must be full of it. Um, and

00:34:21.600 --> 00:34:25.037
so that's the AI cope. Um, and and I
would describe the AI cope is people who

00:34:25.120 --> 00:34:29.277
are basically dismissive. Um, uh,
and then, um, and then AI psychosis.

00:34:29.360 --> 00:34:33.017
Psychosis is the people
who get really mad,

00:34:33.100 --> 00:34:36.317
[laughter] the people who
froth at the mouth. And

00:34:36.400 --> 00:34:40.957
so maybe it's it's it's AI coat but with
a with a with a different loading. Um,

00:34:41.040 --> 00:34:44.557
and then look, all all of this is going
to become just like so much more intense

00:34:44.640 --> 00:34:48.317
over the next several years. Um because
you know look that the reality is that

00:34:48.400 --> 00:34:51.917
that you know the large language models
that we had between call it 19 yeah or

00:34:52.000 --> 00:34:56.957
uh sorry 20 call it
between like GPT2 to GPT4

00:34:57.040 --> 00:35:00.557
something like that uh maybe four and
a half like you know they were they were

00:35:00.640 --> 00:35:05.037
fun they were fun um you know you they
could you know compose Shakespearean rap

00:35:05.120 --> 00:35:07.677
lyrics or whatever you want um you know
you could have very interesting late

00:35:07.760 --> 00:35:11.117
night conversations with them um but you
know the hallucination rates were high

00:35:11.200 --> 00:35:13.517
and you know they weren't good
at reasoning and so forth um and they

00:35:13.600 --> 00:35:16.237
couldn't write code very well and couldn't
you know do math very Well, and

00:35:16.320 --> 00:35:19.917
you know, we're we're too prone
to synopy and and so on. And so I I think

00:35:20.000 --> 00:35:22.557
what happened is a lot of people a lot
of skeptics basically used the early

00:35:22.640 --> 00:35:25.597
models um and got a and got a let's say

00:35:25.680 --> 00:35:28.637
accurate but um but um uh early and and

00:35:28.720 --> 00:35:33.357
therefore lagging view uh of the actual
quality of the technology. Um and then

00:35:33.440 --> 00:35:37.517
you know you fast forward to today um
and you know what May of 26 and we have

00:35:37.600 --> 00:35:41.517
you know just stellar absolutely stellar
you know models now like you know the

00:35:41.600 --> 00:35:45.757
GBD 5.5 is just you know extraordinary
um and then we have reasoning models on

00:35:45.840 --> 00:35:51.197
top of that and we have RL um you know
uh reason you know RL post training

00:35:51.280 --> 00:35:55.037
happening with in all in all these
different domains um uh you know to get

00:35:55.120 --> 00:35:57.917
kind of deterministic high quality work
out of these things and then we have you

00:35:58.000 --> 00:36:00.877
know now we have agents now we have
longived agents and now we have just in

00:36:00.960 --> 00:36:04.797
the last week uh you know GPT he has
this new thing um the goal feature of

00:36:04.880 --> 00:36:08.877
Codeex um that is is letting people
literally run you know run projects have

00:36:08.960 --> 00:36:12.397
have have have Codex go off and do
projects for you know you know 24 hours

00:36:12.480 --> 00:36:16.397
or longer uh without human intervention
and so the the the the actual you know

00:36:16.480 --> 00:36:19.837
what what what we see in our job is like
the actual utility of these things is

00:36:19.920 --> 00:36:23.357
like ramping incredibly quickly um
and and by the way it's really good today

00:36:23.440 --> 00:36:26.957
and ramping very fast and we and every
other I think serious company in the

00:36:27.040 --> 00:36:30.397
space expects the ramping capability
to be very rapid you know at least for the

00:36:30.480 --> 00:36:35.117
next couple years we we have like I
think line of sight to it for sure is

00:36:35.200 --> 00:36:37.997
going to ramp dramatically. Um the
capability is going to ramp dramatically

00:36:38.080 --> 00:36:41.597
and so um so I just the other thing
here is just like a lot of people I don't

00:36:41.680 --> 00:36:44.397
know either skeptics or people who just
don't know what to think. Like if they

00:36:44.480 --> 00:36:46.877
tried it two years ago they don't
understand what's happening today. If

00:36:46.960 --> 00:36:49.597
they tried it six months ago they
might not have a good uh idea of what's

00:36:49.680 --> 00:36:52.877
happening today. By the way if they try
the free version they might not have a

00:36:52.960 --> 00:36:55.997
good idea of what's happening today.
um or if they try the version that's

00:36:56.080 --> 00:36:59.437
bundled, you know, into their whatever
um uh you know, they might they might,

00:36:59.520 --> 00:37:01.517
you know, that just is like a free
add-on to something, they're not going

00:37:01.600 --> 00:37:05.117
to have a you know, to to to really it's
just like anything new like to to really

00:37:05.200 --> 00:37:07.597
understand this, you have to be
directly in front of it. Um

00:37:07.680 --> 00:37:10.077
>> the the good news is like that that
literally means you have to be willing

00:37:10.160 --> 00:37:13.037
to put out $200 to get the to get
whatever is the you know, basically the

00:37:13.120 --> 00:37:15.837
premium package any of these things.
So, it's like not that much money if you

00:37:15.920 --> 00:37:19.517
want to get up close to these things.
Um but I I would yeah, if anybody Yeah, I

00:37:19.600 --> 00:37:22.317
don't know we have a selected audience
of people who are probably believers but

00:37:22.400 --> 00:37:25.277
anybody who's a skeptic on these things
I would just say it's really important

00:37:25.360 --> 00:37:28.557
um to be face to face with the actual
technology um and to and to to be face

00:37:28.640 --> 00:37:30.717
to face with it now
and not have a lagging view

00:37:30.800 --> 00:37:33.037
>> right yeah
and state-of-the-art the what

00:37:33.120 --> 00:37:34.957
do you say to people or what do you say

00:37:35.040 --> 00:37:37.597
to the idea of like you know apparently

00:37:37.680 --> 00:37:42.477
you know the NPS of AI in this country
was like 30% or something like that came

00:37:42.560 --> 00:37:45.757
out recently is pretty low and they're
comparing it to to China where where

00:37:45.840 --> 00:37:48.237
it's much higher I'm I'm curious what

00:37:48.320 --> 00:37:49.997
you think is the source of of why it's

00:37:50.080 --> 00:37:53.197
currently low and what could a strategy

00:37:53.280 --> 00:37:57.437
to to boost it look like?
You some people have suggested economic

00:37:57.520 --> 00:38:00.957
incentives like you know some sort of like
Trump accounts tied to AI companies

00:38:01.040 --> 00:38:05.277
like a basket that people get access
to to feel economically aligned with it in

00:38:05.360 --> 00:38:09.437
a more direct way. Uh even though of
course you know it will increase the you

00:38:09.520 --> 00:38:13.597
know GDP and economy in ways that
they'll also benefit from. Others say,

00:38:13.680 --> 00:38:16.797
"Hey, we actually just need to tell
better stories around the impact that

00:38:16.880 --> 00:38:20.557
it's having on, you know, in people's
lives and their health and their

00:38:20.640 --> 00:38:24.957
education and just the the you know,
people having a tutor or people having a

00:38:25.040 --> 00:38:27.837
lawyer or people having a doctor,
you know, who couldn't afford one

00:38:27.920 --> 00:38:32.877
otherwise." Um, what are what are
your thoughts on the sort of AI sentiment

00:38:32.960 --> 00:38:35.117
perspective? >> Yeah.
So, I would separate two two

00:38:35.200 --> 00:38:38.877
things. Um, so I separate sentiment
and sentiment is is is interpreted through

00:38:38.960 --> 00:38:42.397
polling. Um and we'll talk about that
and then and then you but I bring it up

00:38:42.480 --> 00:38:45.037
to separate it out though which because
you you use the term maybe inadvertently

00:38:45.120 --> 00:38:48.957
NPS uh which is net promoter score which
is which is more um their view of actual

00:38:49.040 --> 00:38:52.557
actual product use product usefulness
right NPS NPS for people who don't know

00:38:52.640 --> 00:38:55.277
is a is a term of art called net
promoter score and it's like it's

00:38:55.360 --> 00:38:57.997
basically the the most high quality
way to find out whether somebody really

00:38:58.080 --> 00:39:00.317
likes a product which is you literally
ask them would would you would you

00:39:00.400 --> 00:39:03.997
recommend this to a friend that's that's
called the NPS rate and so but I but I

00:39:04.080 --> 00:39:06.477
bring I bring that up of course because
there's a big difference between those

00:39:06.560 --> 00:39:09.357
right um and so >> everyone's
using it and benefiting from

00:39:09.440 --> 00:39:12.957
I couldn't live without it. And yet,
>> well, exactly. This is the thing. So,

00:39:13.040 --> 00:39:16.397
this is the thing. So, so and and and by
the way, this is a very common thing in

00:39:16.480 --> 00:39:20.397
like in in in properly conducted social
science like proper like every social

00:39:20.480 --> 00:39:23.997
science 101 textbook will tell you
that you cannot just ask people what they

00:39:24.080 --> 00:39:27.597
think. Um you you you will get back
all kinds of crazy And we'll talk

00:39:27.680 --> 00:39:29.997
about why that's the case, but this
is like this is very standard social

00:39:30.080 --> 00:39:32.397
science methodology, which is you never
just ask people. What you do is you

00:39:32.480 --> 00:39:35.117
watch their behavior, right? And and
what you do is then you want to what

00:39:35.200 --> 00:39:37.277
what you want to do is you want to look
for the gaps between what they what they

00:39:37.360 --> 00:39:39.917
say they believe versus what what they
actually do. And and this is true like

00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:43.117
universally for all form of human
behavior. For example, if you're

00:39:43.200 --> 00:39:46.557
studying let's say mating patterns,
right? Like you know who people date and

00:39:46.640 --> 00:39:49.357
marry like it's just been well
established forever that the thing that

00:39:49.440 --> 00:39:52.157
they say that is their criteria I
mean you know we all see this with our

00:39:52.240 --> 00:39:54.797
friends right? You know our friends all
start out single with a certain criteria

00:39:54.880 --> 00:39:57.517
list and then then they marry somebody
like completely different and so it's

00:39:57.600 --> 00:40:01.117
like okay you know who who do you
believe me or your lying eyes right?

00:40:01.200 --> 00:40:03.677
Like who do you believe what do you
believe? what I told you I wanted or

00:40:03.760 --> 00:40:06.797
what I actually demonstrated that you
know that that I wanted and and this is

00:40:06.880 --> 00:40:10.237
basically true for all areas of human
behavior. But this is like fairly, you

00:40:10.320 --> 00:40:12.317
know, this is a fair, you know, this
is this is one of these sort of slightly

00:40:12.400 --> 00:40:14.957
counterintuitive ideas that you have
to kind of have been trained up in it and

00:40:15.040 --> 00:40:16.717
have seen examples to really understand.

00:40:16.800 --> 00:40:19.677
And so what happens is of course people
people don't know this or they forget

00:40:19.760 --> 00:40:22.557
this. Um and then what happens
is there's there's there's like there's

00:40:22.640 --> 00:40:26.077
literally just like a poll and somebody
does a poll and then the poll comes back

00:40:26.160 --> 00:40:28.877
with like results and it looks and it
looks like you know in the p in the

00:40:28.960 --> 00:40:32.477
results it looks like oh if people say
that then that must be the case. Um, but

00:40:32.560 --> 00:40:35.037
then you you get into this thing which
is like, okay, first of all, you're

00:40:35.120 --> 00:40:37.677
asking them what they think as opposed
to watching their behavior. And there's

00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:40.477
this there's potentially huge delta there.
And then the other thing is

00:40:40.560 --> 00:40:43.037
everybody in the world of polling will
tell you like you can basically make a

00:40:43.120 --> 00:40:45.837
poll say whatever you want. And this is
one of the reasons why you have to look

00:40:45.920 --> 00:40:48.477
at what people do is because you can
make a poll say whatever you want. In

00:40:48.560 --> 00:40:52.557
fact, there's a whole category of poll
that's called a push poll. Uh push pull

00:40:52.640 --> 00:40:55.757
push pull, which is you you word
the questions in a way to generate the

00:40:55.840 --> 00:40:58.637
answers that you want or you word
the questions in a way to actually cause

00:40:58.720 --> 00:41:02.157
people to think differently than they
did before the poll, you know. So the

00:41:02.240 --> 00:41:04.957
political example of a push pull is, you
know, would you continue to support your

00:41:05.040 --> 00:41:07.437
favorite candidate if you knew that he,
you know, was killing kittens in his

00:41:07.520 --> 00:41:11.837
spare time, >> right?
And right and so number one is

00:41:11.920 --> 00:41:13.677
people are going to say, "No, of course
I would not support him." And then

00:41:13.760 --> 00:41:15.517
number two, people are going to say,
"Wait a minute, I didn't know he killed

00:41:15.600 --> 00:41:18.157
kittens in his spare time."
You know, that's horrible,

00:41:18.240 --> 00:41:20.717
>> right? Um, and so
so in polling, you you

00:41:20.800 --> 00:41:24.077
can manipulate these things in all kinds
of ways up to and including what people

00:41:24.160 --> 00:41:27.197
actually think. So it's really really
dangerous. And then you overlay on top

00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:30.237
of that the media environment. And of
course the media environment is you know

00:41:30.320 --> 00:41:33.197
as we you and I have discussed many
times like what you know what is the

00:41:33.280 --> 00:41:37.277
thing the press hates the most in the
entire world you know is is tech and and

00:41:37.360 --> 00:41:39.917
of course what is the you know vanguard
of tech right now and one of the one of

00:41:40.000 --> 00:41:42.557
the one of the things is AI and so the
of course the press hates AI with the f

00:41:42.640 --> 00:41:45.917
theory of a thousand sons and so
the press is running this you know sustain

00:41:46.000 --> 00:41:47.997
you know kind of fear campaign on AI and

00:41:48.080 --> 00:41:50.797
so if you just if you like drown the the

00:41:50.880 --> 00:41:55.517
audience with negative narratives um
and then you ask you know basically these

00:41:55.600 --> 00:41:59.277
these loaded polling questions of course
you're going to generate. I I mean I we

00:41:59.360 --> 00:42:02.077
can pick any topic. We can pick like
fluffy bunnies running in the field and

00:42:02.160 --> 00:42:05.357
we can produce the same thing. You know,
don't you know how much they Like

00:42:05.440 --> 00:42:07.517
I mean you can just do all kind,
you know, they chew up all the crops,

00:42:07.600 --> 00:42:08.637
everybody's going to die from hunger.

00:42:08.720 --> 00:42:12.317
Like you can manufacture a negative
result on anything uh by how you do

00:42:12.400 --> 00:42:15.757
this, which is the the exercise that
that these people have been on. Um and

00:42:15.840 --> 00:42:18.077
and the reason I'm confident in saying
that is because then you look at what

00:42:18.160 --> 00:42:20.797
they actually do. Um and of course what
they're actually doing is they're using

00:42:20.880 --> 00:42:23.677
AI. They're using it a lot. They they
love it. The MPS scores are like super

00:42:23.760 --> 00:42:25.437
high. The usage levels are super high.

00:42:25.520 --> 00:42:29.037
Um there and by the way the usage the
the the the churn levels are shrinking.

00:42:29.120 --> 00:42:32.477
The the the the recurring usage uh uh
patterns consumptions are are rising

00:42:32.560 --> 00:42:36.797
over time. Um you know which is which is
really important. Um and people love it.

00:42:36.880 --> 00:42:40.397
Um and people love it in the same way
that they love their cell phones and in

00:42:40.480 --> 00:42:43.437
the same way they love their Netflix and
the same way that they love their u you

00:42:43.520 --> 00:42:46.237
know the same way that they love their
social media and it's the same way that

00:42:46.320 --> 00:42:50.317
they love their ice cream. And like you
know people love it. Now you if you pull

00:42:50.400 --> 00:42:52.957
somebody and you ask you know do you
know do you think ice cream is good for

00:42:53.040 --> 00:42:54.957
you? They're going to say no. But like,
you know, late at night, they're going

00:42:55.040 --> 00:42:57.117
to be in there with, you know,
the carton because like ice cream is

00:42:57.200 --> 00:43:01.517
delicious. Um, and so it, you know,
it's the same thing with AI. Um, which is,

00:43:01.600 --> 00:43:02.957
yeah, people are using it. They love it.

00:43:03.040 --> 00:43:05.357
The, you know, usage numbers are
speaking for themselves. The growth

00:43:05.440 --> 00:43:08.157
rates of these companies are speaking
for themselves. You know, look, this is

00:43:08.240 --> 00:43:10.717
the fastest category of technology
in the entire history of the world, right?

00:43:10.800 --> 00:43:13.997
In terms of growth rate of usage
and revenue. Um, so it's speaking for

00:43:14.080 --> 00:43:17.437
itself. And so, so basically what you
have is a you you have this Project Fure

00:43:17.520 --> 00:43:21.597
campaign. Um and I would say you know
maybe two things added on to that which

00:43:21.680 --> 00:43:24.717
is uh you know number one is it's
like the thing that is I would say not

00:43:24.800 --> 00:43:28.237
helpful is that the companies themselves
have been running the fear campaign. Um

00:43:28.320 --> 00:43:31.357
and so you know the fact that certain
companies um have been you know sort of

00:43:31.440 --> 00:43:34.237
for a variety of reasons running
a fear campaign is certainly not not not

00:43:34.320 --> 00:43:37.597
helping any um and again it's this weird
paradox is they're running the fear

00:43:37.680 --> 00:43:39.677
campaign while they're actually building
the thing that they tell everybody to be

00:43:39.760 --> 00:43:42.397
afraid of. And so you know there's again
a little bit of a watch what I watch

00:43:42.480 --> 00:43:45.597
what I do not what not what I say.
And then it's like, yeah, should the

00:43:45.680 --> 00:43:46.797
industry have like better narratives?

00:43:46.880 --> 00:43:49.037
Like, yes, almost certainly the industry
should have better narratives and better

00:43:49.120 --> 00:43:53.517
spokespeople and so forth and so on.
But just like, okay, like fine, yes, I'm

00:43:53.600 --> 00:43:55.917
sure that's true. But having said that,
that it's not like that would make the

00:43:56.000 --> 00:43:58.957
fear campaigns go away. It's not like
that would make the press coverage go

00:43:59.040 --> 00:44:02.797
away. It's not like that would make the
the sort of fake polls go away. Um, I'll

00:44:02.880 --> 00:44:06.077
close on one final polling observation,
which is David Shore, who's a, by the

00:44:06.160 --> 00:44:09.117
way, a very leftwing, very progressive
pollster, but very well respected, uh,

00:44:09.200 --> 00:44:12.077
just did a a a different kind of a
different kind of poll, I think much

00:44:12.160 --> 00:44:15.677
more properly constructed, where
he asked Americans to stack rank the

00:44:15.760 --> 00:44:17.597
issues, uh, that they really care about.

00:44:17.680 --> 00:44:20.797
Um, and I I I believe it's I'm pulling
this out of top of my head, but I I

00:44:20.880 --> 00:44:23.917
believe AI ranked as number 29.

00:44:24.000 --> 00:44:27.037
Um and so and and and again it's just
sort of like once you once you get out

00:44:27.120 --> 00:44:29.277
of the bubble of like everybody must
take care of this stuff it's just like

00:44:29.360 --> 00:44:32.477
of course AI ranks as number 29 because
like it doesn't hit it's having no

00:44:32.560 --> 00:44:37.917
tangible impact on anything relative
to issues 1 through 28 right like just

00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:40.477
obviously Americans are dealing
with like more important issues in their

00:44:40.560 --> 00:44:43.357
daily lives than AI like obviously like
they're dealing with energy costs and

00:44:43.440 --> 00:44:45.917
they're dealing with crime and they're
dealing like any number of drug

00:44:46.000 --> 00:44:49.117
addiction like any number of other
things um they're they're more worried

00:44:49.200 --> 00:44:51.917
about and like and by the way like
everybody knows this who like lives a

00:44:52.000 --> 00:44:54.797
normal life is just like this is not
like the thing that I'm worried about.

00:44:54.880 --> 00:44:57.597
I'm worried about like I, you know,
how am I going to make my house payment?

00:44:57.680 --> 00:45:01.117
Like much more fundamental things.
Um, uh, and so, you know, what's what's

00:45:01.200 --> 00:45:04.317
happening at my kids's school? Um,
you know, you know, much much, you know,

00:45:04.400 --> 00:45:05.597
what's what's happening with my health?

00:45:05.680 --> 00:45:09.277
Like, what much more central things?
And so, I I think if you if you get if you

00:45:09.360 --> 00:45:11.437
get to the smart polls and the smart
pollsters, they they also end up

00:45:11.520 --> 00:45:14.317
debunking this. Speaking of things that

00:45:14.400 --> 00:45:17.357
are not uh you know urgent on people's

00:45:17.440 --> 00:45:19.757
day-to-day life and yet capture the

00:45:19.840 --> 00:45:22.237
imagination uh whenever they they

00:45:22.320 --> 00:45:25.407
there's news about it. UFOs. Uh

00:45:25.490 --> 00:45:30.077
[laughter] so there was some some news
that that came out. Um you I don't we

00:45:30.160 --> 00:45:32.397
haven't spent a ton of time talking
about this topic. So I'm curious for

00:45:32.480 --> 00:45:36.797
your general uh how have you kind
of perceived um this topic when there's

00:45:36.880 --> 00:45:40.957
been news out about it o over the over
the years? Um, I remember during during

00:45:41.040 --> 00:45:45.677
COVID, you know, Mike Salana, our our
friend was was coming out and and really

00:45:45.760 --> 00:45:48.957
sort of uh getting excited about
the the news that was being reported then.

00:45:49.040 --> 00:45:51.117
What's been your vantage point and and
what do you what do you think about it

00:45:51.200 --> 00:45:54.317
now? >> Yeah. So, I should start by saying
I don't so I don't know anything. So,

00:45:54.400 --> 00:45:57.437
start start by saying that I I know
nothing um that everybody else doesn't

00:45:57.520 --> 00:45:59.677
know. Um so, I'd start by saying like

00:45:59.760 --> 00:46:04.477
number one, I want to believe um like I
my my usual thing on this is I I want to

00:46:04.560 --> 00:46:08.557
live in the world in which this is a real
possibility. Um, and by the way, I

00:46:08.640 --> 00:46:13.037
was I was actually I I Okay, AIOS. I was
in AI psychosis the other night. Um, and

00:46:13.120 --> 00:46:15.917
I was like I was talking to one of the
one of the bots and I was like, "All

00:46:16.000 --> 00:46:20.557
right, how many u uh galaxies are there
in the universe again?" And and I don't

00:46:20.640 --> 00:46:22.957
know if you've like looked that up
recently, but the number keeps growing

00:46:23.040 --> 00:46:25.517
and I forget what the number is,
but it's like a giant number. And then I'm

00:46:25.600 --> 00:46:29.677
like, "How many stars in in in each
galaxy?" And then how many planets and

00:46:29.760 --> 00:46:32.637
then how many Earthlike planets? And and
the number I don't have on the top of my

00:46:32.720 --> 00:46:35.357
head, but if you if you get do address
it like how many earthlike planets are

00:46:35.440 --> 00:46:37.757
there in the world in which a human
being could like step out of a spaceship

00:46:37.840 --> 00:46:42.237
and breathe and be fine, it's
a staggering it's a very very very large

00:46:42.320 --> 00:46:45.597
number. I mean it's it's it's almost
uncountable number of Earthlike planets

00:46:45.680 --> 00:46:49.037
just in in the statistics. And so it's
like all right like you know it must be

00:46:49.120 --> 00:46:53.197
the case um you know that there's
there's there's there's other other

00:46:53.280 --> 00:46:57.037
stuff going on out there. Um and so
you know logic logically like that makes

00:46:57.120 --> 00:46:59.437
sense and then I would love to live in
a world in which they figure out a way to

00:46:59.520 --> 00:47:02.877
you know at some point get here
hopefully in a in a in a peaceful way.

00:47:02.960 --> 00:47:07.037
Um uh you know having said that you
know you know as you know the the problem

00:47:07.120 --> 00:47:09.757
with this space is you know generally
as you get close to the details you know

00:47:09.840 --> 00:47:11.597
the the the examples tend to fall apart.

00:47:11.680 --> 00:47:15.677
Um, and you know there's all these like
the classic examples like the UFO like

00:47:15.760 --> 00:47:19.117
what what appears to be like a you know
you you'll have these things where like

00:47:19.200 --> 00:47:21.997
a US military aircraft or something will
have a camera imagery that looks like

00:47:22.080 --> 00:47:25.677
it's tracking a you know rapidly moving
and weirdly maneuvering object and it's

00:47:25.760 --> 00:47:28.157
it's just like you know you get you
get close enough to that and look at the

00:47:28.240 --> 00:47:32.157
details and it's you know it's like the
there's like a parallax optical illusion

00:47:32.240 --> 00:47:36.157
uh thing that pops up. Um, and then
there's artifacts, uh, instrument

00:47:36.240 --> 00:47:40.877
artifacts, u, camera artifacts, imagery,
digital imagery artifacts. Um, and then

00:47:40.960 --> 00:47:43.757
there's, um, you know, like literally
like weather balloons and ball lightning

00:47:43.840 --> 00:47:47.517
and all these other things. So, like,
yeah. So, I I haven't I I would Yes, I

00:47:47.600 --> 00:47:48.797
want to believe I haven't seen the one

00:47:48.880 --> 00:47:52.317
yet um that, um, is uh has tipp me over

00:47:52.400 --> 00:47:55.597
it. I I I would like to I will I will

00:47:55.680 --> 00:47:59.357
big big release of new information today.
Um, it it is really fun, by the

00:47:59.440 --> 00:48:02.077
way, to have the official White
House exac account being tweeting uh

00:48:02.160 --> 00:48:05.437
transcripts of interviews with uh
US intelligence officers apparently

00:48:05.520 --> 00:48:08.877
relaying accounts that they've had.
So, I will be up late reading tonight, but

00:48:08.960 --> 00:48:12.077
um uh you know, finger fingers crossed.

00:48:12.160 --> 00:48:14.397
>> Yeah. >> Um friends
have said something to the

00:48:14.480 --> 00:48:18.317
effect of um hey, it's unclear what's
actually happening, but what is clear is

00:48:18.400 --> 00:48:23.277
the government is or at certain times
has has hid certain uh materials. Why

00:48:23.360 --> 00:48:27.037
would they do that if if uh if there's
nothing to really worry about? So I

00:48:27.120 --> 00:48:29.277
don't know how much of this has been
fully validated and I'm not really an

00:48:29.360 --> 00:48:32.637
expert in it. I would say like my under
like I I think two things are pretty

00:48:32.720 --> 00:48:35.917
clear at this point. I think one is that
you know there have been classified you

00:48:36.000 --> 00:48:38.877
know there have been classified you
know that when when stealth when stealth

00:48:38.960 --> 00:48:41.197
fighters and bombers are being developed
you know that whole program was like

00:48:41.280 --> 00:48:43.837
incredibly highly classified and so if
they were going to do test flights on

00:48:43.920 --> 00:48:46.637
something like that you know they they
were going to have to like do anything

00:48:46.720 --> 00:48:49.357
they could to prevent people from
realizing what was actually happening.

00:48:49.440 --> 00:48:52.237
Um, and so, you know, you know, for sure
there were class lots of classified

00:48:52.320 --> 00:48:54.957
aerospace programs over the years
that that would have had various kinds of

00:48:55.040 --> 00:48:58.237
cover stories or various kinds of,
you know, or let's just say blankets of of

00:48:58.320 --> 00:49:01.277
of of suppression of information,
you know, kind of placed over them because

00:49:01.360 --> 00:49:03.677
it's like the most, you know, some
of the most highly classified information

00:49:03.760 --> 00:49:06.477
in the government. Um, you know, that
would cause people to kind of think that

00:49:06.560 --> 00:49:09.277
there's information being hidden.
I mean, Area 51 was of course the classic

00:49:09.360 --> 00:49:12.957
example of this for a long time,
which was, you know, which is which is the

00:49:13.040 --> 00:49:15.917
whole Area 51 thing was around basically
these classified test flights for for

00:49:16.000 --> 00:49:20.797
new new aircraft. Um and then um and then
uh and then at least you know there

00:49:20.880 --> 00:49:23.357
are suggestions I don't know if this has
been validated but there are suggestions

00:49:23.440 --> 00:49:26.157
that at different points in time
the government might have put out UFO

00:49:26.240 --> 00:49:30.477
stories as as basically as an actual
overt cover story. Um and so you know

00:49:30.560 --> 00:49:33.757
what if you're a you know if you're
a let's let's say you're a highly capable

00:49:33.840 --> 00:49:37.197
military intelligence officer whose job
is to make sure that the stealth flight

00:49:37.280 --> 00:49:40.797
you know doesn't become you know
recognized for what it is. Um because it

00:49:40.880 --> 00:49:43.277
would you know that would be very bad
for national security then you'd much

00:49:43.360 --> 00:49:46.877
rather have you know basically a UFO
cult kind of get built up around it. um

00:49:46.960 --> 00:49:49.997
where people get all you know kind of
crazed and freaked out about UFOs by the

00:49:50.080 --> 00:49:52.717
way for two reasons. One is to give
people a story to believe that's not

00:49:52.800 --> 00:49:55.117
that you have some new breakthrough
military technology. But the other thing

00:49:55.200 --> 00:49:59.837
is it it make and this is actually maybe
the serious observation. Um if you can

00:49:59.920 --> 00:50:02.637
build the argument would be I think
if you could build up UFO cult around

00:50:02.720 --> 00:50:04.877
something then you make any
investigation into that topic something

00:50:04.960 --> 00:50:08.077
that people feel like they can't do right.
Um and and and my understanding

00:50:08.160 --> 00:50:11.597
is by the way this was true for a long
time even in the US military which is um

00:50:11.680 --> 00:50:15.117
if a US you know air force pilot you
know or a commercial airline pilot by

00:50:15.200 --> 00:50:17.917
the way thought that they had seen
something weird. I think for a long time

00:50:18.000 --> 00:50:21.277
a lot of pilots didn't want to report
uh what what they you know what they had

00:50:21.360 --> 00:50:24.397
seen because they didn't want to be
viewed that they were like UFO nuts. Um

00:50:24.480 --> 00:50:27.677
and of course if there are actual
UFOs out there like that is a very big

00:50:27.760 --> 00:50:31.357
problem. Um or by the way if there are
just other kinds of things out there

00:50:31.440 --> 00:50:33.997
right you know if there's you know if
the Chinese are testing some sort of new

00:50:34.080 --> 00:50:36.477
advanced you know highspeed drone
or something you know you want the pilots

00:50:36.560 --> 00:50:38.877
to be able to report that even if
they you know think that it might get

00:50:38.960 --> 00:50:42.637
mischaracterized as a UFO. Um, and so
anyway, like I I don't know, maybe maybe

00:50:42.720 --> 00:50:47.357
maybe the the the the interesting thing
we could say on this is um all of this

00:50:47.440 --> 00:50:49.197
played out in the old media environment.

00:50:49.280 --> 00:50:53.917
Um, and so like all of this played out
in the world of broadcast TV and then

00:50:54.000 --> 00:50:56.557
um, you know, on the sort of official
programming on the one hand and then to

00:50:56.640 --> 00:50:59.277
the extent that there was like
unofficial media, it had to be in like

00:50:59.360 --> 00:51:03.437
mimograph newsletters, right? Or like
paperback books. Um, and you know, when

00:51:03.520 --> 00:51:06.557
I was a kid, there were all these like
crazy UFO paperback books. Um, you know,

00:51:06.640 --> 00:51:08.957
and you know, you you'd always tell us,
you know, the the books that said there

00:51:09.040 --> 00:51:11.517
were no UFOs, you know, were were
in hardback and the books that said there

00:51:11.600 --> 00:51:13.277
were, you know, many UFOs were were in

00:51:13.360 --> 00:51:18.637
paperback. Um, so, uh, you know, in the
maybe maybe the the the smart thing you

00:51:18.720 --> 00:51:21.597
could say is in the, um, in the in the
new media environment, this this is yet

00:51:21.680 --> 00:51:26.317
another example of like these these
these old walls just collapse. You know,

00:51:26.400 --> 00:51:28.077
the Overton window just disintegrates.

00:51:28.160 --> 00:51:32.637
Um, and so, of course, you know, the new
media environment is extremely conducive

00:51:32.720 --> 00:51:36.797
to the spread of every UFO theory in the
world. Um, of course it's also extremely

00:51:36.880 --> 00:51:40.077
conducive to the to to the spread
of propaganda campaigns if you wanted to,

00:51:40.160 --> 00:51:42.717
you know, like I said, if you wanted
to hide real information by spreading

00:51:42.800 --> 00:51:46.397
propaganda. And then of course the the
pressure builds, you know, very much

00:51:46.480 --> 00:51:48.717
along the lines of the Epstein thing,
right? That the pressure builds and

00:51:48.800 --> 00:51:51.597
builds and builds and builds until it's
at some point, you know, you know, you

00:51:51.680 --> 00:51:53.597
get, you know, you get somebody in the
White House is just like, "All right,

00:51:53.680 --> 00:51:55.597
screw it." Like, "We're going to rip
the band-aid off and find out what's

00:51:55.680 --> 00:51:58.797
actually going on." >> Yeah.
you know, no, you know, assuming

00:51:58.880 --> 00:52:02.717
that they're not still [laughter]
buzzing fuzzing the details, but we'll

00:52:02.800 --> 00:52:04.877
leave that to the next turn
of the of the situation.

00:52:04.960 --> 00:52:07.197
>> Exactly. Um,
we will stay monitoring. We

00:52:07.280 --> 00:52:08.557
we'll close on a last couple questions

00:52:08.640 --> 00:52:12.157
from the chat. One is um advice for

00:52:12.240 --> 00:52:16.797
young graduates. If if if you were uh in
college today, you you of course were at

00:52:16.880 --> 00:52:20.237
the forefront of the internet revolution
at the University of Illinois. What

00:52:20.320 --> 00:52:24.637
would you be studying or would you even
be in college uh you know today in 2026?

00:52:24.720 --> 00:52:28.877
what advice might you have for uh
for college students uh you know sort of

00:52:28.960 --> 00:52:31.837
trying to make sense of how
to prepare for for what's to come?

00:52:31.920 --> 00:52:35.437
>> Yeah, so it's basically gain AI
superpowers. I I think it's actually you

00:52:35.520 --> 00:52:38.317
know very straightforward. It's like
okay you you you have you have you you

00:52:38.400 --> 00:52:42.797
you you have the enormous stroke of luck
um that you have arrived at the moment

00:52:42.880 --> 00:52:47.117
in which there is this new capability
for augmenting you know human uh ability

00:52:47.200 --> 00:52:50.957
on on on a thousand fronts at the same
time. Um that's just dropped into our

00:52:51.040 --> 00:52:55.037
laps. Um and it's going to get much
better from here. Um, and you know,

00:52:55.120 --> 00:52:58.157
enormous numbers of people who are
supposedly older and wiser than you are

00:52:58.240 --> 00:53:00.557
are going to dig in their heels
and they're going to be mad about it and

00:53:00.640 --> 00:53:03.677
they're going to fight it. They're going
to not want to do it. Um, and you know,

00:53:03.760 --> 00:53:06.157
you are going to have the opportunity
to have this be something that is

00:53:06.240 --> 00:53:09.757
absolutely key to your skill set.
Um, and key to everything that you can

00:53:09.840 --> 00:53:12.957
accomplish as a professional or as a
creative um, you know, for the for for

00:53:13.040 --> 00:53:17.037
the next 50 years. Um, and so I would
just like lean in as incredibly hard on

00:53:17.120 --> 00:53:20.077
that. You know, walk into every job
interview with like, you know, here's my

00:53:20.160 --> 00:53:21.517
whatever portfolio, resume, whatever.

00:53:21.600 --> 00:53:24.637
like here here is here here is how
I use this technology here are the

00:53:24.720 --> 00:53:27.677
capabilities that I'm bringing um you
know to the table and by the way you

00:53:27.760 --> 00:53:30.157
know some employers you'll talk to will
they'll you know they'll fuzz out on

00:53:30.240 --> 00:53:33.357
that and not not not not respect it but
you'll you know other employers will be

00:53:33.440 --> 00:53:37.117
like wow like that that's clearly you
know this is exactly what we want um and

00:53:37.200 --> 00:53:41.757
so this is a uh this is actually this is
actually funny there's um Douglas Adams

00:53:41.840 --> 00:53:44.957
the the great science fiction novelist
um he once said there's he said there's

00:53:45.040 --> 00:53:48.077
a there's he said there's a repeating
and this was by the way pre-I like this

00:53:48.160 --> 00:53:50.877
is something he said like 30 years ago
uh he said there's a repeating pattern

00:53:50.960 --> 00:53:54.877
of how technology is received by the
different age cohorts um in society. He

00:53:54.960 --> 00:53:58.717
said um if you are um when a new
technology arrives whatever it is in

00:53:58.800 --> 00:54:02.477
this case AI. Um he said if you're below
the age of 15 he said this is just how

00:54:02.560 --> 00:54:06.157
the worlds always work. It's just
obvious. Um um and then if you're

00:54:06.240 --> 00:54:09.197
between the ages of 15 to 35 this is cool
and nifty and you can probably get

00:54:09.280 --> 00:54:12.317
a you know get a career using it. And
then if you're above the age of 35 this

00:54:12.400 --> 00:54:14.637
is unholy uh and against everything that

00:54:14.720 --> 00:54:15.997
society stands for and should absolutely

00:54:16.080 --> 00:54:19.357
be destroyed. Um, and so I think that um

00:54:19.440 --> 00:54:21.837
I think that uh I think 15 to 35 and

00:54:21.920 --> 00:54:23.917
especially 15 to 25 right now like I

00:54:24.000 --> 00:54:29.517
yeah I am very jealous like I I I I yeah
I I I generally don't wish I could go

00:54:29.600 --> 00:54:32.237
back in time and do things over again,
but I it would be really really fun

00:54:32.320 --> 00:54:35.917
right now to be 18 or 20 or 22 uh and to
have this capability and and figure out

00:54:36.000 --> 00:54:40.637
what I could do with it. And we're um
it's funny, we atz are trying to hire

00:54:40.720 --> 00:54:45.277
more more of these people um because
they're AI native um and they're going

00:54:45.360 --> 00:54:48.157
to help us become more AI.
>> By the way, this is the thing. This is

00:54:48.240 --> 00:54:50.317
there's this narrative right now
and part of the dmer part of the doomer

00:54:50.400 --> 00:54:52.717
narrative is oh companies are never
going to hire junior employees again. Uh

00:54:52.800 --> 00:54:54.877
the new generation is screwed because
companies are never going to hire junior

00:54:54.960 --> 00:54:57.357
employees again because those are
the most easily replaced by AI and so

00:54:57.440 --> 00:54:59.597
companies are only ever going to have
senior people. And I think the I believe

00:54:59.680 --> 00:55:03.757
the opposite is true. Um I I think 100%
you you want that you want the AI native

00:55:03.840 --> 00:55:06.397
kids. um like the AI native the A the AI

00:55:06.480 --> 00:55:10.877
native kids are going to outperform the
um you know their older lite peers like

00:55:10.960 --> 00:55:14.557
gigantically titanically now their their
older peers who are not lets are also

00:55:14.640 --> 00:55:17.437
going to do great um but um it is yeah

00:55:17.520 --> 00:55:21.997
no an 18-year-old with or by the way
a 24y old or by the way a 14-year-old with

00:55:22.080 --> 00:55:25.197
AI uh we are going to see super
producers you know the likes of which

00:55:25.280 --> 00:55:28.557
we've never seen in the world so yes
by the way this is going to greatly stress

00:55:28.640 --> 00:55:31.517
the uh this is going to be another
big uh point of stress on all the child

00:55:31.600 --> 00:55:36.397
labor laws >> yeah Um
[laughter] >> yeah, exactly.

00:55:36.480 --> 00:55:39.197
>> Let me just say let me just say
the children yearn for the AI minds.

00:55:39.280 --> 00:55:42.797
>> Yeah. Yeah.
They're uh Yeah, absolutely.

00:55:42.880 --> 00:55:47.517
the um speaking of you know we talked
about Zoomers in previous episodes and

00:55:47.600 --> 00:55:51.757
and and why you like them in terms
of you know they just have so much courage

00:55:51.840 --> 00:55:55.517
um and and are are willing or sort
of kind of fed up because they grew up in

00:55:55.600 --> 00:55:57.597
you know COVID school and all these sort

00:55:57.680 --> 00:56:03.437
of you know adjacent sort of uh you know
sort of impositions and um but one one

00:56:03.520 --> 00:56:07.757
thing you quote tweeted recently was Chris
Arnad's uh sort of post around the

00:56:07.840 --> 00:56:10.077
uh you know people talk about
the educational divide but there's also

00:56:10.160 --> 00:56:12.557
generational divide in terms of boomers

00:56:12.640 --> 00:56:15.997
being just much more um sort of

00:56:16.080 --> 00:56:18.477
confident in their sort of truth and

00:56:18.560 --> 00:56:23.437
younger people being more uh sort
of post-truth relativistic more pluralist.

00:56:23.520 --> 00:56:26.957
Um and I thought that was a really
interesting sort of epistemological

00:56:27.040 --> 00:56:29.677
divide. What what did you find
interesting about about her or how do

00:56:29.760 --> 00:56:32.157
you see that play out? >> Yeah.
So there's really two parts to it

00:56:32.240 --> 00:56:37.037
which very interesting. So, part
number one is um a lot of boomers um uh

00:56:37.120 --> 00:56:39.597
somebody once said the definition
of a baby boomer is somebody who believes

00:56:39.680 --> 00:56:43.197
what's on the TV set.
Like they believe what the talking head

00:56:43.280 --> 00:56:46.397
on the TV says. Um and like anybody
who's 20 knows that you obviously don't

00:56:46.480 --> 00:56:49.517
do that, right? That that would be stupid.
But every, you know, 60-year-old

00:56:49.600 --> 00:56:52.157
or 80-year-old has been watching TV
their entire lives and when they grew

00:56:52.240 --> 00:56:54.877
up, you know, it's it's it's the old
story. We've all heard it, you know, a

00:56:54.960 --> 00:56:58.637
million times. Walker Kronhite used
to tell us what the truth was. Um right.

00:56:58.720 --> 00:57:01.837
And you know, of course, that was always
BS, but nevertheless, that that was what

00:57:01.920 --> 00:57:05.197
the boomers believed. They believed what
the TV said. They believed what the New

00:57:05.280 --> 00:57:08.797
York Times wrote, right? So, you know,

00:57:08.880 --> 00:57:12.237
they believe these things. Um, you know,
any anybody below the age of 40 like

00:57:12.320 --> 00:57:14.957
just at this point has example after
example after example of how like

00:57:15.040 --> 00:57:17.757
obviously that's just not true. And then
anybody who's like 20 who's been through

00:57:17.840 --> 00:57:20.557
the last, you know, 15 years in school
like just obviously knows that, you

00:57:20.640 --> 00:57:23.117
know, these people are fake and,
you know, this is not real and you just

00:57:23.200 --> 00:57:25.437
can't take this stuff seriously. Um and

00:57:25.520 --> 00:57:30.717
so um so so so part of it is that divide
and so the the the boomers had um uh by

00:57:30.800 --> 00:57:33.197
the way there's this great YouTube
account there's this amazing video on

00:57:33.280 --> 00:57:36.877
this there's this great YouTube account
called academic agent uh this is a

00:57:36.960 --> 00:57:41.757
British uh uh author uh named Nema
Parvini um who writes these really

00:57:41.840 --> 00:57:44.237
interesting books and he but he has
this two-hour video that's really worth

00:57:44.320 --> 00:57:47.917
watching and it's it's it's called
Boomer Truth and so it's like a two-hour

00:57:48.000 --> 00:57:50.797
documentary on kind of this concept he
calls Boomer Truth which is basically

00:57:50.880 --> 00:57:54.477
like whatever the TV says um and how
it's falling apart. So, so there's sort

00:57:54.560 --> 00:57:57.597
of there's sort of the boomer truth thing.
Um, but then there's this other

00:57:57.680 --> 00:58:00.957
thing which is like a key part of boomer
truth is that there's no fixed morality,

00:58:01.040 --> 00:58:04.157
right? So, so, so like a key part
of boomer truth is you get to make up your

00:58:04.240 --> 00:58:06.877
own values. It's like all cultures are
the, you know, was a moral relativism.

00:58:06.960 --> 00:58:09.757
All cultures are the same.
Western society is not superior. You know,

00:58:09.840 --> 00:58:10.957
there's many, many different cultures.

00:58:11.040 --> 00:58:13.677
They're all wonderful. Like, it's all
great. It's all great. It's all great.

00:58:13.760 --> 00:58:16.637
If anything, the West is the worst of
the cultures. The other ones are better.

00:58:16.720 --> 00:58:20.077
You know, just like that was such
a like before there was woke, there was

00:58:20.160 --> 00:58:23.197
political correctness. and like the
political correctness of like when I was

00:58:23.280 --> 00:58:26.717
in like college it was literally
around was called multiculturalism or

00:58:26.800 --> 00:58:29.757
>> Peter Teal and David Sax wrote about it
in their book you know diversity myth in

00:58:29.840 --> 00:58:32.157
1995 >> the diversity
myth and it was it was it

00:58:32.240 --> 00:58:35.997
was actually it was actually a term that
it's called multi multicult multiculty

00:58:36.080 --> 00:58:40.717
multiculti multicultural um and and
there were these furious de there's a

00:58:40.800 --> 00:58:43.677
classic book of that era Peter's book is
great but actually before that there was

00:58:43.760 --> 00:58:46.717
a famous book at the time which has
been huge headline news all through the

00:58:46.800 --> 00:58:49.517
country when it came out called
the the closing of the American mind yeah

00:58:49.600 --> 00:58:52.877
>> and this sort this sort of right-wing
academic at University of Chicago who

00:58:52.960 --> 00:58:55.357
basically said these these colleges
are teaching these kids that there is no

00:58:55.440 --> 00:58:58.397
there is no mor you know there is no
morality um you know it's all just

00:58:58.480 --> 00:59:02.237
basically morality is just choose
your own adventure um and so there is this

00:59:02.320 --> 00:59:05.037
moral relativism that's kind of at the
heart of Boomer truth right and so so

00:59:05.120 --> 00:59:07.997
it's this weird thing where it's like
there is a a fixed received belief that

00:59:08.080 --> 00:59:12.557
there is no fixed morality um and so
if you're on the and then basically like

00:59:12.640 --> 00:59:16.957
the entire media apparatus the entire
cultural program the entire educational

00:59:17.040 --> 00:59:20.797
system got designed around this um
and all of the stuff all the crazy stuff

00:59:20.880 --> 00:59:22.957
that, you know, kids are getting
in school now is basically, you know,

00:59:23.040 --> 00:59:25.517
downstream of downstream of this
movement from, you know, 30, 40 years

00:59:25.600 --> 00:59:28.317
ago, uh, 60 years ago. Um, and so if

00:59:28.400 --> 00:59:32.557
you're, yeah, if you're 20, you've just
like come up in this sort of like weird

00:59:32.640 --> 00:59:35.277
environment in which, you know, on the
one hand, you're just like the boomers

00:59:35.360 --> 00:59:38.077
have no credibility at all because like
I I can't believe they still believe

00:59:38.160 --> 00:59:41.277
what's on TV. Um, and then number two
is like to the extent that they we do

00:59:41.360 --> 00:59:44.317
listen to anything they say, they keep
telling us to not judge anybody and not

00:59:44.400 --> 00:59:46.877
judge anything and that all all
moralities are equal and all cultures

00:59:46.960 --> 00:59:49.757
are equal. And so of course they're
going to the course their zoomers are

00:59:49.840 --> 00:59:53.277
going to come out of that with like just
like an incredible level of skepticism.

00:59:53.360 --> 00:59:56.077
And then by the way this is not
an abstract exercise because these are the

00:59:56.160 --> 00:59:59.437
these are the kids who came up through
co right and these are the kids who came

00:59:59.520 --> 01:00:02.637
up through woke and these are the kids
who came up through like all of the all

01:00:02.720 --> 01:00:06.477
of all of the craziness of the last you
know the last decade you know 15 years.

01:00:06.560 --> 01:00:10.237
And so I think these kids are just
coming out with like a completely

01:00:10.320 --> 01:00:13.037
different viewpoint on how the world
works. And by the way, you know, not in

01:00:13.120 --> 01:00:16.957
every case, but like in many cases,
completely different, like much more, I

01:00:17.040 --> 01:00:19.517
would say, much almost like
simultaneously more open-minded, more

01:00:19.600 --> 01:00:23.677
critical, like much more interested
in ideas, uh much more much more skeptical

01:00:23.760 --> 01:00:27.597
of of of authority, much more skeptical
of received wisdom, u much more cynical

01:00:27.680 --> 01:00:31.277
about about manipulation, um, by the way,
much more sensitive about the media

01:00:31.360 --> 01:00:34.717
environment. Um, you know, they they're
much more aware of the idea that there

01:00:34.800 --> 01:00:37.277
actually is psychological warfare going
on, and they have been on the receiving

01:00:37.360 --> 01:00:42.077
end of it. um you know m much less much
more skeptical of authority. You know

01:00:42.160 --> 01:00:44.797
they just you know their their view
of the authority figures that they've seen

01:00:44.880 --> 01:00:48.637
in their life you know in many cases
is just like complete contempt. Um and in

01:00:48.720 --> 01:00:51.117
many cases very well earned um and so

01:00:51.200 --> 01:00:55.677
yeah it's just a it's it's just a it's
a starkly different um I think it's a

01:00:55.760 --> 01:00:58.557
starkly different worldview than the than
the for sure than the boomers had.

01:00:58.640 --> 01:01:01.437
Also very different than my generation
Gen X also very different than the

01:01:01.520 --> 01:01:04.877
millennials. Like it it's something new
and and I'm I'm I'm very excited. I I

01:01:04.960 --> 01:01:06.237
think I think they're fantastic.

01:01:06.320 --> 01:01:09.437
>> Yeah. Spe speaking of something new is

01:01:09.520 --> 01:01:11.437
would would it be fair to summarize

01:01:11.520 --> 01:01:16.637
maxing as stoicism meets
you can just do things?

01:01:16.720 --> 01:01:18.397
>> No, I think it's just
you can just do things.

01:01:18.480 --> 01:01:22.077
>> Okay. [laughter] >> Like I
think it's even like I think it's

01:01:22.160 --> 01:01:25.197
even it's even shedding. I don't know.
I don't know. Maybe I think I can see what

01:01:25.280 --> 01:01:27.437
you're driving at and I I think you
could probably explain it that way. But

01:01:27.520 --> 01:01:29.917
I think I don't know. The way I put
it is the stoics put a lot of time and

01:01:30.000 --> 01:01:31.537
effort into trying to be stoic.

01:01:31.620 --> 01:01:33.757
[laughter] Whereas
the whole point of maxing

01:01:33.840 --> 01:01:36.317
is you're not supposed to put that level
of time and effort into being the way

01:01:36.400 --> 01:01:40.157
that you are. You're just supposed to do
it. Um and so yeah, I guess you could

01:01:40.240 --> 01:01:43.917
say our friend Ryan Holidayiday
is a stoic and not a maxer. [laughter]

01:01:44.000 --> 01:01:49.437
Um as he demonstrated this week and so
um maybe maybe right there in that in that

01:01:49.520 --> 01:01:51.677
in that in that in that video
you can see the difference.

01:01:51.760 --> 01:01:54.237
>> Yeah, that's well said.
Um last question

01:01:54.320 --> 01:01:58.317
from the chat. We'll get you out of here.
How are you such a good monitor? H

01:01:58.400 --> 01:02:02.557
what is your secret to monitoring so
many situations? Any strategies? What is

01:02:02.640 --> 01:02:05.437
your approach? >> Well,
of course, being plugged into the

01:02:05.520 --> 01:02:09.117
MTS fire hose uh is of course absolutely
critical. And of course, the amazing

01:02:09.200 --> 01:02:11.757
tools that the team
is developing and putting online

01:02:11.840 --> 01:02:14.477
>> uh is fantastic. I have been glued
I've been among other things been glued to

01:02:14.560 --> 01:02:16.157
the uh the coverage of the uh of the

01:02:16.240 --> 01:02:19.437
OpenAI um uh uh trial this week um on on

01:02:19.520 --> 01:02:22.557
on is it MT MTS? Is it MTS.com? Okay.

01:02:22.640 --> 01:02:26.557
Yeah. Yeah. Um uh so um yeah, for sure
that and then yeah, I mean I'm at you

01:02:26.640 --> 01:02:30.317
know I I I long ago plugged the back
of my skull wire, you know, I wire jacked

01:02:30.400 --> 01:02:34.157
into uh into social media. So um I
sort of you know continuous X feed, my

01:02:34.240 --> 01:02:38.877
continuous Substack feed, my continuous
YouTube feed. Um and uh yeah, and then

01:02:38.960 --> 01:02:41.917
trying to as usual try trying to read
enough old books to try to have some

01:02:42.000 --> 01:02:45.117
counterbalance to the uh
to the to to to the daily fire hose.

01:02:45.200 --> 01:02:49.277
>> Yeah. Awesome. Uh well u Mark thank
you so much for coming on another great

01:02:49.360 --> 01:02:52.957
episode at MTS and we'll see
you back soon. See you soon.

01:02:53.040 --> 01:02:56.040
>> Okay.

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