WEBVTT 00:00:05.440 --> 00:00:07.837 Every day for the last 3 years, we have 00:00:07.920 --> 00:00:12.477 seen dramatic images from the war in Ukraine. Periodically, we also see how 00:00:12.560 --> 00:00:16.797 Ukraine is defending itself by developing new tactics, but also new 00:00:16.880 --> 00:00:20.717 tools. Drones, in particular, are frequently pointed out as the 00:00:20.800 --> 00:00:23.757 protagonist of the new warfare. We had a 00:00:23.840 --> 00:00:26.157 live demonstration of this technology at 00:00:26.240 --> 00:00:29.277 the Ukrainian pavilion during CES. The 00:00:29.360 --> 00:00:33.917 drones on display were very cheap to produce in mass quantity but also very 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:36.317 deadly. >> This is also military drone and we are 00:00:36.400 --> 00:00:40.557 right now looking know how to use it in a in a civil in the civil sphere. 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:42.477 >> It's actually a kamicazi drone. 00:00:42.560 --> 00:00:45.757 >> Oh wow. So the idea of this drone was to 00:00:45.840 --> 00:00:50.637 develop super super cheap and effective comma because you need like enormous 00:00:50.720 --> 00:00:53.917 amount of them you know on the front line because it flies only one way >> right 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:55.917 >> and it's really really cheap and it can 00:00:56.000 --> 00:00:59.117 fly up to 100 km with 4 kilo of payload 00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:01.117 >> how cheap 00:01:01.200 --> 00:01:05.997 >> in Ukraine less than 200 $2,000 uh in 00:01:06.080 --> 00:01:07.437 Ukraine abroad it would be more 00:01:07.520 --> 00:01:09.437 expensive obviously because you know we 00:01:09.520 --> 00:01:13.437 have some like our country like help um 00:01:13.520 --> 00:01:16.957 helps companies like us in we're not paying taxes and so on. 00:01:17.040 --> 00:01:18.797 >> Everybody will be a bit more expensive 00:01:18.880 --> 00:01:25.000 but still not 20,000 like we see like for example 00:01:27.440 --> 00:01:29.917 >> in fact Eric Schmid is suggesting that 00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:31.837 every government should consider 00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:34.637 investing in alternative modern weapons 00:01:34.720 --> 00:01:37.277 like drones alongside the traditional 00:01:37.360 --> 00:01:39.357 war machines. Take a listen. [music] 00:01:39.440 --> 00:01:43.997 is take 10% and put it on new stuff. 00:01:44.080 --> 00:01:46.957 Spend 90% on all the stuff that you 00:01:47.040 --> 00:01:50.237 think you should buy and run a trial. 00:01:50.320 --> 00:01:54.077 Literally test whether that 10% is 00:01:54.160 --> 00:01:58.797 better than the 90%. And for example, for every tank you buy, 00:01:58.880 --> 00:02:02.557 build a [clears throat] unmanned ground vehicle. For every airplane you buy, 00:02:02.640 --> 00:02:04.957 build a thousand drones or whatever, 00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:07.037 whatever the numbers are appropriate and 00:02:07.120 --> 00:02:10.157 run the test. uh 00:02:10.240 --> 00:02:14.717 you should be skeptical in this in your organization. If you don't have tech 00:02:14.800 --> 00:02:17.037 people like these people embedded in 00:02:17.120 --> 00:02:21.917 every layer of in in this case the chancellory and the mods and so forth of 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:23.917 the countries you're going to miss out 00:02:24.000 --> 00:02:27.277 on a once in aundundredyear transition. 00:02:27.360 --> 00:02:31.517 This transition is analogous to the invention of the tank 100 years ago. And 00:02:31.600 --> 00:02:33.997 by the way, tanks are not a good place 00:02:34.080 --> 00:02:38.237 to be in right now. 2 kg drone costs 00:02:38.320 --> 00:02:42.157 what $5,000 takes out 5 million to30 00:02:42.240 --> 00:02:44.797 million in the case of US tanks. Boom. 00:02:44.880 --> 00:02:48.237 Just like that. And they're very hard to defend against. 00:02:48.320 --> 00:02:50.637 >> Eric Schmidt was a guest during one of 00:02:50.720 --> 00:02:55.357 the satellite events of the Munich Security Forum. And he has no doubt that 00:02:55.440 --> 00:02:59.757 what we are seeing in Ukraine has many elements of the warfare of the future 00:02:59.840 --> 00:03:03.757 wherever this may happen. >> [music] >> Um, I spent lots of time in Ukraine 00:03:03.840 --> 00:03:06.957 trying to understand the future of war and I think I I understand what's going 00:03:07.040 --> 00:03:10.477 to happen. Um, and I'm not talking about Ukraine specifically. I'm talking about 00:03:10.560 --> 00:03:13.437 combat. Um, all of us are familiar with 00:03:13.520 --> 00:03:16.637 tanks, boats, and air force jets of one 00:03:16.720 --> 00:03:21.357 kind or another. All of you command some combination of them. In every case, 00:03:21.440 --> 00:03:25.197 there's going to be an automation equivalent of that. Instead of buying 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:27.677 tanks, you'll be buying unmanounded 00:03:27.760 --> 00:03:32.397 ground vehicles. And I'll describe why in a sec. Instead of buying big ships, 00:03:32.480 --> 00:03:34.077 you'll be buying the equivalent of drone 00:03:34.160 --> 00:03:37.597 ships automated in various ways. And in 00:03:37.680 --> 00:03:42.077 terms of t and in terms of air force, you'll have drones. And the drones will 00:03:42.160 --> 00:03:44.077 be attack drones, but the drones will 00:03:44.160 --> 00:03:47.437 also be able to defend themselves. This 00:03:47.520 --> 00:03:50.557 is the future of war. And of course the 00:03:50.640 --> 00:03:55.037 existing systems be around but the quicker you can make this transition the 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:59.037 smarter and more sophisticated your national security approaches will be. 00:03:59.120 --> 00:04:01.117 The elements that are composed of this 00:04:01.200 --> 00:04:03.837 are first abundance. I come from a 00:04:03.920 --> 00:04:06.157 background of abundance. You all spend a 00:04:06.240 --> 00:04:08.877 time of scarcity and ex exquisite 00:04:08.960 --> 00:04:13.677 expensive things. Uh in my view that's wrong. Sorry to be obnoxious but I'm an 00:04:13.760 --> 00:04:17.037 American. um it's much better to say how do we 00:04:17.120 --> 00:04:19.037 solve this problem with abundance with 00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:21.117 inexpensive systems that work well in 00:04:21.200 --> 00:04:24.317 swarms and that technology now works. So 00:04:24.400 --> 00:04:26.237 the first thing is drive the prices 00:04:26.320 --> 00:04:28.557 down. And when I say down, I mean down 00:04:28.640 --> 00:04:32.237 by a factor of 10, not 10%. And you do 00:04:32.320 --> 00:04:34.077 that by using product lines of one kind 00:04:34.160 --> 00:04:37.037 or another. You use um consumer product 00:04:37.120 --> 00:04:39.357 lines, you use contract manufacturers. 00:04:39.440 --> 00:04:42.957 You don't use the traditional military procurement. The second thing that you 00:04:43.040 --> 00:04:44.477 do 00:04:44.560 --> 00:04:49.357 is um think of it as autom automation, 00:04:49.440 --> 00:04:51.917 right? Autonomy. Um, so for example, 00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:56.477 with modern vision systems, you can have automatic target detection, and so far 00:04:56.560 --> 00:05:00.797 the systems that I've watched in Ukraine have had zero collateral damage. These 00:05:00.880 --> 00:05:03.837 things are accurate enough that they're more accurate than humans, which is 00:05:03.920 --> 00:05:06.477 important in in com in combat and in 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:08.957 national security. And the third one is 00:05:09.040 --> 00:05:12.797 AI dominance. And AI dominance can be 00:05:12.880 --> 00:05:16.557 interpreted as many things. It can be interpreted as vision systems. What I'm 00:05:16.640 --> 00:05:19.357 talking about is in strategy and 00:05:19.440 --> 00:05:21.757 algorithmic warfare using all of these 00:05:21.840 --> 00:05:26.877 tools is the future. It's how war will be done. And obviously having spent a 00:05:26.960 --> 00:05:28.717 fair amount of time watching this real 00:05:28.800 --> 00:05:31.437 war, these are to be avoided, right? So 00:05:31.520 --> 00:05:34.157 I'm not in any way endorsing this. But 00:05:34.240 --> 00:05:36.397 the the the core point I'm trying to say 00:05:36.480 --> 00:05:39.517 is that this is happening very very 00:05:39.600 --> 00:05:43.197 quickly in Ukraine and all of you will 00:05:43.280 --> 00:05:45.757 either help or be dragged into it or 00:05:45.840 --> 00:05:48.637 will fight it because you don't like it. 00:05:48.720 --> 00:05:50.557 But the fact of the matter is this is 00:05:50.640 --> 00:05:53.517 the future and I'm convinced of it. Wars 00:05:53.600 --> 00:05:56.957 are won and lost through a whole bunch 00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.517 of players. There's no single reason why 00:05:59.600 --> 00:06:02.477 you win or lose. But every successful 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:07.117 war plan will fundamentally have AI as its strategic base and as its targeting 00:06:07.200 --> 00:06:11.677 base. The only question is how much scale do you have in order to do this? 00:06:11.760 --> 00:06:15.997 By the way, you have to have lots of training data, right? So the key with AI 00:06:16.080 --> 00:06:20.717 based things is that you actually have to the system has to learn. Um and thank 00:06:20.800 --> 00:06:24.477 goodness there aren't that many wars, but things like how do you identify 00:06:24.560 --> 00:06:28.637 targets? What does the enemy do? How do they respond? All of these are playing 00:06:28.720 --> 00:06:30.477 out right now between Russia and 00:06:30.560 --> 00:06:34.157 Ukraine. In AI development, 00:06:34.240 --> 00:06:38.637 the fastest gains right now are occurring in coding and you see this 00:06:38.720 --> 00:06:41.037 with Cloud Code and Augment and 00:06:41.120 --> 00:06:44.397 Microsoft Copilot and so forth. Um, my 00:06:44.480 --> 00:06:48.717 category of jobs, the job that I did 50 years ago is going away. It's rather 00:06:48.800 --> 00:06:53.277 disturbing. Um, but the fact of the matter is that's where all the initial 00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:55.437 gains are right now for a whole bunch of 00:06:55.520 --> 00:07:00.317 reasons. If you can write code, you can also write cyber attacks. So, one of the 00:07:00.400 --> 00:07:03.197 things that's going to happen is you're gonna have an enormous number of zeroday 00:07:03.280 --> 00:07:05.597 cyber attacks coming out of this because 00:07:05.680 --> 00:07:08.237 of this innovation cycle. So, having 00:07:08.320 --> 00:07:13.197 said that, AI and AI servers that are used in the military are legitimate 00:07:13.280 --> 00:07:16.797 military targets and therefore need to be hardened and protected. They need to 00:07:16.880 --> 00:07:21.437 be hardened physically. They need to have reliable power. But also the models 00:07:21.520 --> 00:07:25.277 uh there are things called adversarial attacks where you can go in and take the 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:29.037 model which is from your perspective is just a bunch of numbers and change them 00:07:29.120 --> 00:07:31.757 enough that the AI does the wrong thing. 00:07:31.840 --> 00:07:36.317 So protecting them cyber security cyber attacks are all incredibly important. I 00:07:36.400 --> 00:07:38.237 think this audience knows this is a 00:07:38.320 --> 00:07:40.477 growth business. Unfortunately when I 00:07:40.560 --> 00:07:44.397 talk about AI globally I always talk 00:07:44.480 --> 00:07:47.597 about what the US is doing and what 00:07:47.680 --> 00:07:52.717 China is doing. And the simple summary is the US, thank God that the American 00:07:52.800 --> 00:07:55.997 financial system will give these people billions and billions of dollars with no 00:07:56.080 --> 00:07:57.917 credible strategy for for making money 00:07:58.000 --> 00:07:59.997 at it. Um, Germans don't do that. 00:08:00.080 --> 00:08:03.117 Europeans don't do that. Um, but the 00:08:03.200 --> 00:08:07.837 fact of the matter is this enormous wave. It's $2 trillion of capital going 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:12.077 into the data centers in America and around the world for those companies. Um 00:08:12.160 --> 00:08:13.917 the estimate for power needed in the 00:08:14.000 --> 00:08:19.357 United States is 90 gawatts of additional power and as reference if 00:08:19.440 --> 00:08:23.677 you're not familiar with this the nuclear power plant is around 1.5 gawatt 00:08:23.760 --> 00:08:27.917 gives you a sense of the scale involved and this is these are the plans in China 00:08:28.000 --> 00:08:32.157 you have the same thing except that the Chinese are using a technique called 00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:37.357 open source they're releasing all of the weights and models um which is important 00:08:37.440 --> 00:08:41.517 strategically because it means the majority of the world the third world if 00:08:41.600 --> 00:08:44.957 you will the other countries that we don't typically visit are going to be 00:08:45.040 --> 00:08:47.597 using Chinese models not American models 00:08:47.680 --> 00:08:49.997 whereas Europe Europe has a couple of 00:08:50.080 --> 00:08:54.797 leading champions Mstral is one I'm an investor for example but Europe does not 00:08:54.880 --> 00:08:58.077 have the scale does not have the data centers does not have the financing to 00:08:58.160 --> 00:09:01.037 do it this is a tragedy Europe should 00:09:01.120 --> 00:09:03.117 organize in my view and I've said this 00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:05.437 and I'll say it again your own 00:09:05.520 --> 00:09:08.717 open-source models and they should be 00:09:08.800 --> 00:09:13.437 done thank you Um, it makes no sense for 00:09:13.520 --> 00:09:18.317 you to to allow your intelligence systems and I mean human intelligence, 00:09:18.400 --> 00:09:19.837 not military intelligence, to be 00:09:19.920 --> 00:09:23.917 controlled by the US or China, right? 00:09:24.000 --> 00:09:27.917 Europe has its own special thing going and I happen to like Europe and I want 00:09:28.000 --> 00:09:30.957 you guys to be successful and I don't want you to be overrun by the Chinese or 00:09:31.040 --> 00:09:35.197 the US. You're going to have to do this and furthermore it's going to cost you 00:09:35.280 --> 00:09:37.277 10 to20 billion. 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:40.877 That's what they cost. 00:09:40.960 --> 00:09:45.197 Why open source? >> Um, open source is the quickest way to 00:09:45.280 --> 00:09:47.437 catch up 00:09:47.520 --> 00:09:51.037 and having hired tens of thousands of 00:09:51.120 --> 00:09:56.557 people in Europe, the engineers in Europe are fantastic, right? So, you 00:09:56.640 --> 00:09:59.597 need a way of organizing them. You need a way to move quickly and open source is 00:09:59.680 --> 00:10:03.677 the easiest way to do it. My specific proposal is that Brussels or equivalent 00:10:03.760 --> 00:10:06.717 organize a group of 10 computer scientists who are obviously European 00:10:06.800 --> 00:10:10.557 and align with the British because they're kind of near you um and figure 00:10:10.640 --> 00:10:12.717 it out. It can be done fairly quickly. 00:10:12.800 --> 00:10:17.437 >> The importance of open-source models is often mentioned in this type of meetings 00:10:17.520 --> 00:10:21.437 also from the leading authorities in this field. Take a listen. Let's face 00:10:21.520 --> 00:10:24.557 it, the single most important thing that has happened last year, if you were to 00:10:24.640 --> 00:10:27.677 ask me the one single most important 00:10:27.760 --> 00:10:32.237 event last year and how it has activated 00:10:32.320 --> 00:10:34.717 AI researchers here in this region, it's 00:10:34.800 --> 00:10:37.277 actually Llama 2. It's an open- source 00:10:37.360 --> 00:10:40.157 model. All were possible because of some 00:10:40.240 --> 00:10:42.797 of these open source languages. And so I 00:10:42.880 --> 00:10:45.117 think that democratizing 00:10:45.200 --> 00:10:47.917 activating every region, activating 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:52.957 every country to join the AI advance is 00:10:53.040 --> 00:10:55.597 probably one of the most important thing. 00:10:55.680 --> 00:11:00.157 >> For more content about the impact of the Yama model and the importance of 00:11:00.240 --> 00:11:04.877 opensource models in general, you can watch the video at the link above. But 00:11:04.960 --> 00:11:08.237 let's carry on with the future of warfare. 00:11:08.320 --> 00:11:10.557 What I'm going to say is that in a 00:11:10.640 --> 00:11:13.117 national security perspective, 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:15.837 first the money is showing up which is 00:11:15.920 --> 00:11:18.317 great and that money needs to be applied 00:11:18.400 --> 00:11:21.357 to the right areas specifically the 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:25.037 algorithms lowcost a factors technically 00:11:25.120 --> 00:11:28.557 drones drone industry you have a number of national champions here you have a in 00:11:28.640 --> 00:11:32.237 Germany you have a company in Helsing called Helsing that's quite good um 00:11:32.320 --> 00:11:33.757 there are a number of such examples and 00:11:33.840 --> 00:11:37.917 we need a lot more of them the um I most 00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:43.117 interested in not the problem of volume which everyone is focused on because I 00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:46.157 think the volume stuff will ultimately be sorted out but rather the 00:11:46.240 --> 00:11:48.157 intelligence layer and I'll give you an 00:11:48.240 --> 00:11:50.157 example 00:11:50.240 --> 00:11:53.597 um the way AI is evolving is we start 00:11:53.680 --> 00:11:56.797 with um the AI that you all know which 00:11:56.880 --> 00:12:00.957 is sort of chat GPT language models things like that and then we move to 00:12:01.040 --> 00:12:05.277 strategy and planning which is where we are now with strategy and planning you 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:07.437 can begin to do steps Think of it as 00:12:07.520 --> 00:12:12.317 workflow. And when you can do that, this is what militaries do. This is what 00:12:12.400 --> 00:12:16.957 businesses do. This is what universities do. Europe should lead in the agentic 00:12:17.040 --> 00:12:20.797 revolution where you build agents to solve the problems that your citizens, 00:12:20.880 --> 00:12:23.037 your military, your universities have. 00:12:23.120 --> 00:12:26.877 This is the year of the agentic revolution. And that stuff is happening 00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:30.797 very fast. I'm talking about every month. You saw last week all the 00:12:30.880 --> 00:12:34.557 publicity about a fake world of agents that were beginning to learn how to 00:12:34.640 --> 00:12:37.277 interact with each other. And everyone was surprised that they didn't 00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:41.037 immediately try to assassinate each other. Well, that's presumably in game 00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:43.357 three of the simulation. But the 00:12:43.440 --> 00:12:46.397 important point is that the agent model 00:12:46.480 --> 00:12:48.477 is going to drive huge revenue in 00:12:48.560 --> 00:12:51.437 America. It should drive huge revenue in 00:12:51.520 --> 00:12:53.837 Europe. Along with that, start thinking 00:12:53.920 --> 00:12:58.637 about military uses. There's all the supply chain stuff that's it. And you 00:12:58.720 --> 00:13:02.717 all spend so much money in my view wasted it on these complicated systems 00:13:02.800 --> 00:13:06.237 just to have agents that figure this stuff out and move it around. It's 00:13:06.320 --> 00:13:10.237 possible now using a technique called MCP which is used throughout the 00:13:10.320 --> 00:13:14.077 industry model context protocol. You basically take all your databases and 00:13:14.160 --> 00:13:17.677 you start asking it questions and it figures it out. I mean these are huge 00:13:17.760 --> 00:13:20.077 breakthroughs architecturally and Europe 00:13:20.160 --> 00:13:22.557 is not leading in these areas. They will 00:13:22.640 --> 00:13:24.797 make you much more effective in whatever 00:13:24.880 --> 00:13:27.677 your objective is military, business, 00:13:27.760 --> 00:13:30.717 profit, entertainment, education. The 00:13:30.800 --> 00:13:33.517 the key next step after that is what 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:37.197 agents do you build for war. So most 00:13:37.280 --> 00:13:42.397 people when they talk about AI talk about it in the context of what in 00:13:42.480 --> 00:13:46.397 America is called project maven, which is essentially vision and the project 00:13:46.480 --> 00:13:48.237 maven thing was very controversial. 00:13:48.320 --> 00:13:50.077 Google started it with the Pentagon. 00:13:50.160 --> 00:13:54.877 Google canceled it. Um, I was on the Pentagon side, which is a mess. Um, and 00:13:54.960 --> 00:13:58.797 then eventually it's been taken over largely by a palunteer. 00:13:58.880 --> 00:14:00.557 That's not the kind of AI I'm talking 00:14:00.640 --> 00:14:04.157 about. It's an enabler for reasoning. 00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:07.917 And every general I've met talks about how they want to have battlefield 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:11.277 awareness and they want to be able to see everything. Well, here's what I 00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:13.837 want. When I sit in a command center and 00:14:13.920 --> 00:14:17.517 I watch the commanders who are very very 00:14:17.600 --> 00:14:19.757 committed to doing the right thing, I 00:14:19.840 --> 00:14:22.717 want the computer to give them a plan, a 00:14:22.800 --> 00:14:26.477 battle plan that we can prove will win 00:14:26.560 --> 00:14:30.957 in a series of iterations. There's a technique called reinforcement learning 00:14:31.040 --> 00:14:35.757 which was invented um some years ago. It was heavily used by Deep Mind winning 00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:39.677 the go game if you remember that about 10 years ago. And reinforcement learning 00:14:39.760 --> 00:14:44.317 allows you to sort of prove what the optimal paths are. So here's an example. 00:14:44.400 --> 00:14:47.997 This would never happen, but you and I are opponents. You have you have 00:14:48.080 --> 00:14:50.317 algorithms and I have algorithms. So now 00:14:50.400 --> 00:14:53.197 you and you and I are going to have a um 00:14:53.280 --> 00:14:56.477 and we're we're mad at each other. What 00:14:56.560 --> 00:14:59.277 is the deterrence that keeps you and me 00:14:59.360 --> 00:15:01.997 from fighting each other? Unlike 00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:06.797 traditional weapons, you can't count the algorithms. 00:15:06.880 --> 00:15:08.637 If your algorithms are better than mine, 00:15:08.720 --> 00:15:11.357 and I suspect they would be, I better be 00:15:11.440 --> 00:15:14.157 very careful before I do something 00:15:14.240 --> 00:15:16.237 because you get a vote and you get a 00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:19.837 vote to to win. I spent a lot of time 00:15:19.920 --> 00:15:21.997 trying to figure out what this fight 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:26.157 looks like. I'm sure within two or three 00:15:26.240 --> 00:15:29.517 years, algorithmic warfare as a category 00:15:29.600 --> 00:15:34.637 will exist. What I don't believe is that the algorithms will be the same. And 00:15:34.720 --> 00:15:38.157 I'll give you an example. In one of the more recent battles in 00:15:38.240 --> 00:15:42.557 Ukraine, and I won't go into the details, um it was pretty clear that the 00:15:42.640 --> 00:15:47.437 Russians were focused on land and the Ukrainians were focused on the people on 00:15:47.520 --> 00:15:48.877 the other side, right? These are 00:15:48.960 --> 00:15:52.157 different military strategies. 00:15:52.240 --> 00:15:55.197 It's not possible to model strategies 00:15:55.280 --> 00:15:58.077 where you have different goals, right? 00:15:58.160 --> 00:16:01.997 It's too hard. So the deterrence is if 00:16:02.080 --> 00:16:06.717 you and I have different strategies, I don't know what you're really going 00:16:06.800 --> 00:16:11.517 after and therefore I can't model what you're going to do. You become harder to 00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:15.597 predict with less prediction capability. I'm 00:16:15.680 --> 00:16:18.957 less likely to start a war. So deterrence, 00:16:19.040 --> 00:16:22.317 >> it is a form of deterrence. And and the 00:16:22.400 --> 00:16:24.237 reason I'm hammering on this is that 00:16:24.320 --> 00:16:26.317 almost everybody learned from the 00:16:26.400 --> 00:16:29.997 nuclear stuff. Sorry to as an aside. So 00:16:30.080 --> 00:16:31.757 Henry Ken and I were best best friends. 00:16:31.840 --> 00:16:36.557 We wrote two books together and uh and of course I miss him every day and he 00:16:36.640 --> 00:16:40.317 spent a lot of time here. He was by the way here at the original MSSE way back 00:16:40.400 --> 00:16:42.877 when when I think none of us were here. 00:16:42.960 --> 00:16:45.437 Um and but anyway, Henry would would 00:16:45.520 --> 00:16:50.077 tell all these stories about how he did deterrence and how the deterrence in the 00:16:50.160 --> 00:16:55.197 1950s was erected and it was fundamentally because you could count things. 00:16:55.280 --> 00:16:59.117 I'm talking about a world where you don't know. You can't model what the 00:16:59.200 --> 00:17:01.197 algorithms are going to do. Algorithmic 00:17:01.280 --> 00:17:03.997 warfare should be extremely 00:17:04.080 --> 00:17:08.557 self-deterring because of that issue. 00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:13.117 >> Some of these early capabilities were already on display at the Ukrainian 00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:15.437 booth during CES. 00:17:15.520 --> 00:17:17.997 >> Run uh you know the sophisticated things 00:17:18.080 --> 00:17:21.677 like like uh AI models. Then you just 00:17:21.760 --> 00:17:26.317 fly over your fields and the system automatically makes a photos detect what 00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:29.917 what are you going you know to detect and then just collects all the 00:17:30.000 --> 00:17:33.597 statistics calculates all the statistics that you want and it depicts here on 00:17:33.680 --> 00:17:35.997 your on your screen. >> There's wishful thinking and then 00:17:36.080 --> 00:17:39.997 there's reality. The wishful thinking is that there's going to be a new algorithm 00:17:40.080 --> 00:17:41.597 that replaces the transformer 00:17:41.680 --> 00:17:43.197 architecture that Google invented in 00:17:43.280 --> 00:17:47.517 2017 that uses less hardware. That is a 00:17:47.600 --> 00:17:50.717 great idea. It's it's not obvious how 00:17:50.800 --> 00:17:53.677 and when that will occur. If you look at 00:17:53.760 --> 00:17:55.837 let's use Google as an example. Google 00:17:55.920 --> 00:17:58.557 is a highly efficient answering machine. 00:17:58.640 --> 00:18:03.437 The computational costs of doing the same thing with any large language model 00:18:03.520 --> 00:18:07.437 are many orders of magnitude more expensive which is why these things take 00:18:07.520 --> 00:18:11.837 so much time and the value is there. And the part of the reason is that they do 00:18:11.920 --> 00:18:15.677 something called test time planning where they are actually learning as 00:18:15.760 --> 00:18:20.637 they're going. They literally you you you feed it what it knows and it knows 00:18:20.720 --> 00:18:24.077 something and then you feed it back in again. It's called it's essentially a 00:18:24.160 --> 00:18:26.237 recursive process. The important thing 00:18:26.320 --> 00:18:28.877 about all of this is it uses an enormous 00:18:28.960 --> 00:18:31.277 amount of energy. Um as I mentioned 00:18:31.360 --> 00:18:35.517 before in the United States the um it's 00:18:35.600 --> 00:18:38.877 pretty clear that every real estate developer in the United States has 00:18:38.960 --> 00:18:42.477 become obsessed with making more money from data center builds than from 00:18:42.560 --> 00:18:44.877 building building on farmland. And the 00:18:44.960 --> 00:18:47.757 US has lots of extra land. So you're 00:18:47.840 --> 00:18:52.637 going to see lots and lots of that. And this particular company um is working in 00:18:52.720 --> 00:18:54.637 an area called the Perian Basin which 00:18:54.720 --> 00:18:57.037 has a great deal of natural gas. In 00:18:57.120 --> 00:18:59.677 looking at it for Europe, Europe has uh 00:18:59.760 --> 00:19:04.957 France has excess nuclear capacity as far as I can tell and the the only 00:19:05.040 --> 00:19:08.717 problem is the prices in France for energy are high. I was recently 00:19:08.800 --> 00:19:12.077 contacted by somebody who's figured out a way to build a gigawatt in Bulgaria 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:16.397 which I thought was interesting. My guess for Europeans because the energy 00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:18.557 costs are so high is that people are 00:19:18.640 --> 00:19:20.397 here. The training will be done 00:19:20.480 --> 00:19:23.757 somewhere else. This is a a national 00:19:23.840 --> 00:19:27.837 security issue for Europe as a strategic 00:19:27.920 --> 00:19:30.637 issue. If I were doing things for the 00:19:30.720 --> 00:19:33.597 military in Europe, I'd want my training 00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:36.157 to be done in a European NATO type 00:19:36.240 --> 00:19:38.877 country. European values, European laws, 00:19:38.960 --> 00:19:43.917 European privacy laws. And that's hence why I keep going on about Europe needs a 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:47.517 strategy. You need some form of open source model and you need to do the 00:19:47.600 --> 00:19:51.277 training in Europe. >> So you're building this facility where 00:19:51.360 --> 00:19:55.837 natural gas is abundant. So you're in the right place for data centers. Middle 00:19:55.920 --> 00:19:59.277 East would seem to be a logical place to put some of them, but not the ones for 00:19:59.360 --> 00:20:03.117 military use. >> Yeah, I think I think that for the 00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:06.797 militaries will ultimately figure out that controlling that value chain is 00:20:06.880 --> 00:20:11.437 really important. You want to have pretty much vertical control over your stuff. 00:20:11.520 --> 00:20:13.517 >> Now before this event, we followed the 00:20:13.600 --> 00:20:16.397 World Economic Forum in Davos and it was 00:20:16.480 --> 00:20:21.117 evident that even among the leaders in AI, there was no consensus about the 00:20:21.200 --> 00:20:23.357 timeline [music] for AI to become a 00:20:23.440 --> 00:20:25.917 truly revolutionary. Eric Schmidt 00:20:26.000 --> 00:20:29.517 confirms the current situation. 00:20:29.600 --> 00:20:33.277 The real narrative is that America 00:20:33.360 --> 00:20:37.197 because of money, capital scale, 00:20:37.280 --> 00:20:39.997 craziness, people like me touting a 00:20:40.080 --> 00:20:41.517 future in two years where everything 00:20:41.600 --> 00:20:44.477 will be different. The AI boom in the US 00:20:44.560 --> 00:20:48.077 is like a religion, right? And I call it 00:20:48.160 --> 00:20:52.317 the San Francisco consensus. And um the people in San Francisco that I know and 00:20:52.400 --> 00:20:54.317 I spent lots of time with them all 00:20:54.400 --> 00:20:57.837 believe within 2 or 3 years 00:20:57.920 --> 00:20:59.437 something very interesting is going to 00:20:59.520 --> 00:21:03.597 happen. And one of my friends said h and 00:21:03.680 --> 00:21:06.477 he goes then we don't know what will 00:21:06.560 --> 00:21:09.437 happen. And by the way this is the way 00:21:09.520 --> 00:21:12.557 the pitch goes. When these systems these 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:14.317 systems are smart and they can do 00:21:14.400 --> 00:21:17.437 planning and so forth, there's a point 00:21:17.520 --> 00:21:22.237 at which the the system can begin to build itself. 00:21:22.320 --> 00:21:24.397 It can take off on its own. The 00:21:24.480 --> 00:21:27.277 technical term is called rein uh re 00:21:27.360 --> 00:21:32.157 essentially recursive self-improvement recursively getting smarter and smarter. 00:21:32.240 --> 00:21:35.757 Now, if you think about it, if the computer evolves faster than we do, 00:21:35.840 --> 00:21:40.317 we're in trouble. And then everyone goes, "Oh my god, we're in trouble." Now 00:21:40.400 --> 00:21:41.997 I personally don't think it'll be within 00:21:42.080 --> 00:21:45.197 2 years but the the but I do believe 00:21:45.280 --> 00:21:48.077 that over a 5 or 10 year period the rise 00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:51.117 of this foreign intelligence and how it 00:21:51.200 --> 00:21:54.557 gets hard harnessed is going to be huge. 00:21:54.640 --> 00:21:57.837 My view about Europe since we're in Europe is Europe needs to be a player 00:21:57.920 --> 00:22:01.917 there and I don't see Europe doing it right now because of the lack of 00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:04.637 hardware and companies and so forth and 00:22:04.720 --> 00:22:06.957 uh Europe is in big danger to be left 00:22:07.040 --> 00:22:10.637 out of this and China for example does 00:22:10.720 --> 00:22:14.557 understand this and the Chinese are working very very hard using a different 00:22:14.640 --> 00:22:19.277 approach. They do more computation at the edge. The computers are not as 00:22:19.360 --> 00:22:23.677 powerful because the US won't allow them to get those chips. Um, and that's 00:22:23.760 --> 00:22:28.397 there's a complicated discussion about all of that. I should mention that ASML, 00:22:28.480 --> 00:22:32.077 which is a European company, is incredibly impressive and incredibly 00:22:32.160 --> 00:22:36.237 important. If Europe could just create more ASMLs, everyone would be good, 00:22:36.320 --> 00:22:39.037 right? It's it's a true monopoly on a 00:22:39.120 --> 00:22:41.437 technology that is essential for the AI 00:22:41.520 --> 00:22:43.837 revolution. The these transitions take 00:22:43.920 --> 00:22:46.717 decades, right? Did anyone here arrive 00:22:46.800 --> 00:22:50.557 in a driverless car here in Munich? 00:22:50.640 --> 00:22:55.837 This is the car capital of the world, isn't it? Germany, right? By the way, in 00:22:55.920 --> 00:22:58.957 America, most people don't arrive in self-driving cars, too. And they were 00:22:59.040 --> 00:23:02.237 invented in the basically the late '9s. 00:23:02.320 --> 00:23:05.117 So, what is that 30 years, right? It 00:23:05.200 --> 00:23:07.277 just takes a long time. The industry 00:23:07.360 --> 00:23:10.237 uses the phrase technology overhang to 00:23:10.320 --> 00:23:12.317 refer to the fact that the rate of 00:23:12.400 --> 00:23:15.197 diffusion or adoption of the techn tech 00:23:15.280 --> 00:23:18.077 the stuff we're talking about is slow. 00:23:18.160 --> 00:23:21.917 It's slow for many reasons. Sometimes it doesn't work. Sometimes you don't have 00:23:22.000 --> 00:23:25.437 the right people on the other side. But at least in the case of national 00:23:25.520 --> 00:23:27.757 security, you have an obligation to 00:23:27.840 --> 00:23:30.077 protect your countries. You have to, in 00:23:30.160 --> 00:23:33.437 my view, take the jump, take the risk, 00:23:33.520 --> 00:23:38.077 and at least run the test. Right? To me, it's an it's a moral imperative. It's a 00:23:38.160 --> 00:23:43.277 national imperative. And is exemplified in the war. um with respect to to the 00:23:43.360 --> 00:23:47.197 rate at which this stuff is going to happen, a lot of it depends on how easy 00:23:47.280 --> 00:23:51.277 it will be for normal people to use it, right? So, for example, Google and I 00:23:51.360 --> 00:23:55.997 obviously have a pro Google bias. Um many of its Gemini answers are really 00:23:56.080 --> 00:23:57.677 better than the search results, right? 00:23:57.760 --> 00:24:01.277 And Gemini is really good. It's currently the best performing model, 00:24:01.360 --> 00:24:03.117 right? So, it's according to the 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.637 rankings. So, good for them. Uh so the 00:24:06.720 --> 00:24:10.397 the key thing to understand here is you have this brutal competition for 00:24:10.480 --> 00:24:14.077 innovation which is being funded by trillions of dollars. We all benefit 00:24:14.160 --> 00:24:18.157 from that competition. Let's see how far it goes. Specific things that are going 00:24:18.240 --> 00:24:21.037 to happen are agents will be used by 00:24:21.120 --> 00:24:24.077 businesses to improve customer service 00:24:24.160 --> 00:24:28.477 in there's evidence that customer service jobs for example are declining 00:24:28.560 --> 00:24:32.637 because you can automate those. A general rule about automation is that 00:24:32.720 --> 00:24:37.277 highly um highly repetitive jobs and highly 00:24:37.360 --> 00:24:39.117 dangerous jobs are automated out first. 00:24:39.200 --> 00:24:40.237 And I think that's what you'll see. 00:24:40.320 --> 00:24:42.340 [music]