WEBVTT

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We're dealing with magic here that we
I think probably all would have thought

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was impossible 5 years ago or certainly
10 years ago. This is the most amazing

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technology ever and it's moving really
fast and yet we're still like really

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disappointed. Like it's not moving fast
enough and like it's like maybe right on

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the verge of stalling out. We should
both be like hyper excited but also on

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the verge of like slitting our wrists
cuz like you know the gravy train is

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coming to an end, >> right?
>> It is faster but it's not at computer

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speed, right? What we expect computer
speed to be. It's sort of like watching

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a person work.

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>> It's like watching John Carmarmac

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>> the world. Okay.
the world's the world's

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best programmer on a stimulus.

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>> On a stimulant. Yeah, that's right.

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>> So, let's start with um let's assume
that I'm a sort of a novice programmer.

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So, maybe I'm a student um uh or maybe
I'm just somebody, you know, I took a

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few coding classes and I've hacked
around a little bit or like I don't

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know, I do Excel macros or something
like that, but I'm like not less. I'm

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not like a master craftsman at coding.

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Um and you know people somebody tells me
about replet and and specifically AI um

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AI and Replet like what's my what's my
experience uh when when I launch in with

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with what replet is today with AI.

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>> Yeah I I would um I I think
the experience of someone with no coding

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experience or some coding experience
is largely the same when you go into

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replet. Okay. >> The first
thing we try to do is get all

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the nonsense away from like setting up
development environment and all of that

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stuff and just have you focus on your
idea. So what do you want to build? Do

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you want to build a product? Do you want
to solve a problem? Do you want to do a

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data vis visualization? So the prompt
box is really open for you. You can put

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in anything there. So let's say you want
to, you know, build a startup. You have

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an idea for a startup. I would I would

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start with like a paragraph long kind of

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description of what I want to build.
Uh the agents will read that. It will

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>> you just type just type >>
standard English. Standard English. You

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just type it in. I want to build a I
want to sell I want to sell crepes. I

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want to sell crepes online.
So you just like type in I want to talk.

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>> You can it literally could be
that four words or five words. Okay.

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>> Or it could be if you're if you have
a programming language you prefer or stack

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you prefer, you could do that. But we
actually prefer not for you not to do

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that because we're going to pick
the best thing for we're going to classify

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the best stack for that request. Right?

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>> It's a if it's a data app, we'll pick
Python and stream whatever. If it's like

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a web app, we'll pick JavaScript
and Postgress and things like that. So you

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just type that >> or you can
decide you can decide you can

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say and I want to do it I know Python or
I'm learning Python in school and I want

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to do it in Python.
>> That's right. The cool thing about

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Replet is you know we we've been around
for almost 10 years now and we built all

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this infrastructure. Replet runs any
programming language. So if you're

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comfortable with Python you
can go in and do that for sure.

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>> Okay. >> And then
just again I know this is

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obvious people have used it
but like I'm dealing in English.

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>> Yes. >> So okay go ahead. >> Yes.
You're fully in English. I mean,

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you know, just a, you know, a little bit

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of of sort of background here, like when

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um when I I came here and pitched to you
like 10 years ago or like whatever 7

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years ago, >> right?
>> Uh what we were saying is we were

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exactly describing this future
is that >> uh everyone would want to build

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software, right?
>> And the thing that's kind of getting in

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in people's ways is all the uh what Fred
Brooks called the accidental complexity

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of programming, right? They're like
essential complexity which is like how

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do I bring my startup to market and how

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do I build a business and all of that
accidental complexity is what package

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manager do I use all of that stuff we've

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been abstracting away that for so many

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years so you can just um and the last
thing we had to abstract away is code

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>> right >> I had this
realization last year which

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is I think we you know built an amazing
platform but the business is not

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performing and the reason the business
is not performing is that code is the

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bottleneck like yes all the other stuff

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is important to solve but syntax
is still an issue like you know syntax is

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just an unnatural thing for people so
ultimately English is the programming

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language >> right >> I I just
does it work with other other

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world languages other
than English at this point

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>> yes you can write in Japanese and we
have a lot of users especially Japanese

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that tends to be very >> so does
it support these days like for a

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does a support every language or is it
still do you still have to do like

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custom work to craft a new new language
>> no most most you know uh mainstream

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dream language that has like 100 million
plus people that speak it. AI is pretty

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good at it. >> Okay. Yeah. >> Yeah. Wow.

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>> So, uh I I I did a bit of a bit
of historical research recently for for

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some reason. I just want to just
understand the moment we're in and

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because it's such a special moment. It's

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I think it's important to contextualize

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it and I I I read this quote from

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Gracehopper. So, Gracehopper invented

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the compiler as you know. uh at the time

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people were uh you know programming in
machine code and that's what programmers

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do that's what the specialists do >> yes
>> and she said you know specialists will

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always be a specialist they have
to learn the underlying machinery of

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computers but I want to get to a world
where people are programming English

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that's what she said that's before
karpathy right that's like you know 75

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years ago >> uh and and and
that's why I invented the

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compiler and in her mind like C
programming is English >> right

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>> uh But that, you know, that really
didn't uh that was just the start of it.

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You had C and then you go higher level
Python and JavaScript. And I think it

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we're at a moment where
it's the next step, >> right?

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>> Instead of typing syntax, you're
actually typing thoughts, you know,

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which is what we ultimately want.

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>> And the machine writes the code
>> and the machine writes the code,

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>> right? Right. >> Um yeah,
I remember it. you're you're

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probably not old enough uh to remember
but I I remember when when I was a kid

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it was um you know there there were were
higher level languages you know by the

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70s like like basic
and so forth and forran

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>> and C and C but um uh there were still
you know you still would run into people

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who were doing assembly programming
assembly language which by the way you

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still do you know like game companies
or whatever still do assembly to to to get

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>> and they were hating on the kids
that were doing basic. Oh well so so the

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assembly people were hating the kids
doing basic but there were also older

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coders who hated on the assembly
programmers for doing assembly and not

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and not and not no no no not doing
direct machine code right not doing

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direct zero in one machine code because
because as because assembly assembly so

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people don't know assembly language
is sort of this very low-level programming

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language that sort of compiles to actual
actual machine code and if and if it's

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it's it's incomprehensible gibberish
to most program even most programmers

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>> you're writing an octal or something
>> you're writing like very very close to

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the hardware but even still it's still
a language that compiles to zeros and ones

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>> um whereas the actual real programmers
actually wrote in zeros and ones. And so

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there there's always there's always this
tendency, you know, for the for the for

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the pros to be, you know,
look on the nose.

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>> Yeah. >> And say,
you know, the new people are

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being are being, you know, basically
sloppy. They don't understand what's

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happening. You know, they don't really
understand the machine. And then, of

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course, you know, with with the higher
level with the higher level abstractions

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do is they make they democratize.
The absolute irony is I was part of the

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JavaScript revolution. I was at Facebook
uh before starting repled and we built

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the modern JavaScript stack. We built
ReactJS and all the tooling around it

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>> and we got a lot of hate from from
the programmers that you should type you

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know vanilla JavaScript directly and >>
um I was like okay whatever and then

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that you and now that's mainstream and
then those guys that built their careers

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on the last wave we invented are hating
on this new wave and so just you know

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people never change. Okay, got it. Okay,
so you you're typing English I want to

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sell crepes online. I want to do this.
I want to have a t-shirt. Whatever the

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business is. Okay. What what happens then?

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>> Yeah. and then uh uh replet agent will

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show you what it understood.
So it's trying to build um a common

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understanding between you and it and I
think there's a lot of things we can do

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better there in terms of UI but for
now it'll show you a list of tasks.

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>> It'll tell you I'm going to go set up
a database because you need to store your

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data somewhere. Uh we need to set up
Shopify or Stripe because we need to

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accept payments. Uh and then it shows
you this list and gives you two options

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initially. Do you want to start with a
design so that we can iterate back and

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forth to get lock that design down
or do you want to build a full thing?

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>> Hey, if you want to build a full thing,
we'll go for 20, 30, 40 minutes.

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>> Uh, and the a and be like the agent
will tell you go here, install the app.

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>> Uh, I'm going to go
set up the database,

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do the migrations, write the SQL, you
know, build the site. I'm going to also

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test it. So this is a recent innovation

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we did with um agent 3 is that after it

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writes the software spins up a browser

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goes around and tests in the browser and
then any issue it kind of iterates kind

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of goes and fix the code. So it'll spend
20 30 minutes building that I'll send

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you a notification it'll tell you the app
is ready. And so you can test it on

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your phone. You can go back to your
computer. You'll see maybe you'll find a

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bug or an issue, you'll describe it
to the agent, say, "Hey, it's not exactly

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doing what I expected." Uh or if it's
perfect and and you're ready to go and

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that's it. You know, 20 minutes. By
the way, there's a lot of examples where

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people just get their idea in 20 30
minutes, which is amazing. Um you just

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hit publish. >> Mhm.

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>> You hit you hit publish. Um

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couple clicks, you'll be up in the

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cloud. we'll set up a a virtual machine
in the cloud. The database is deployed.

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Everything's done and now you
have a production database.

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>> So, think about the steps needed just
two or 3 years ago in order to get to

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that step. You have to set up your local
development environment. You have to

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sign up for an AWS account. You have
to provision the databases, the virtual

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machines, you have to create the entire
pip deployment pipeline. All of that is

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done for you. And it just, you know, a

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kid can do it, a lay person can do it.

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If you're a programmer and uh you're
curious about what the agent did, the

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cool thing about replet because we have
this history of being an IDE, you can

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peel the layers. You can open the file
tree and you could look at the files.

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You can open gits, you can push it
to GitHub, you can connect it to your

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editor if you want, you can open it
in Emacs. So the cool thing about Replet,

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yes, it is a vibe coding platform that
abstracts away all the complexities, but

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all the layers are
there for you to look at.

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>> Right. So let's go let's go back to um
that was great, but let's go back to you

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said it. It it gives you that the a the
agent gives you you you say I've got my

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idea. You plug it in and it says it
gives you this list of things and then

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you and then when you describe it you
said I'm going to do this. I'm going to

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do that. The eye there in that case
was the agent as opposed to the user. Yes.

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>> And so the the agent lists the set
of things that it's going to do and then

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the agent actually does those things.

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>> Agent does those things. Yeah.
That that's a that's a that's a very

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important point. when we did this shift,

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we hadn't realized internally at Replet
how much the actual user stopped being

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the human user and it's actually
the agent programmer, >> right?

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>> So, one really uh funny thing happened

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is we had servers in Asia uh and we the
reason we had servers in Asia because we

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wanted our Indian or you know Japanese

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users to be to have a you know shorter

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uh time to the servers. uh when we

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launched the agent their experience got
significantly worse and we're like what

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happened like it's supposed to be faster
well turns out it's worse it's because

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the AIS are sitting in uh in United
States and so the the programmer is

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actually in United States it's you're
sending the request to the programmer

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and the programmer is interfacing
with a machine across the world and so yes

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suddenly the agent is the programmer
okay so like the the ter ter you know

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new terminology agent is a software
program that is basically using the rest

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of the as if it were
a as if it were a human

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user, but it's not. It's a it's a bot.

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>> That's right. It has access to tools

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such as write a file, edit a file,

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delete a file, uh uh search the package

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index, install a package, uh provision
a database, provision object object

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storage. It is a programmer that has the
tools and interface. It has a sort of an

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interface >> that that
is very similar to a human

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programmer. And then um you know we'll
talk more about how this all works but a

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debate inside the AI industry um is
with these was kind of this you know this

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idea now of having agents that do things
on your behalf and then go out you know

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go go out and kind of accomplish missions.
Um there's this you know kind

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of debate which is okay how like
obviously you know it's a big deal even

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to have an AI agent that can do
relatively simple things to do complex

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things of course is you know one of the
great technical challenges of the last

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80 years you know to to do that and then
there's sort of this question of like

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can the agent go out and run and operate
on its own for 5 minutes you know for

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for 15 minutes for an hour for 8 hours
and and meaning like sort of like how

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long does it maintain coherence like how
long does it actually like stay in full

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control of it of its faculties and not
kind of spin out because at least the

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early early agents or the the early AIS,
if if you set them off to do this, they

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might be able to run for two or three
minutes, then they would they would

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start to get confused and go down rabbit
holes and, you know, kind of kind of

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spin out. Um, more recently, more
recently, um, uh, you know, we've seen

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that that that that agents can run a lot
longer and and do more complex tasks.

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Like, where are we on the curve
of agents being able to run for how long

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and for what complexity tasks
before before they break?

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>> That's that's
absolutely the the I think

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the main metric we're looking at. even
back in 2023, you know, had the idea for

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software agents, you know, four or five
years ago now. The problem every time we

00:12:33.200 --> 00:12:37.117
attempt them, the the problem
of coherence, you know, they'll they'll go

00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:41.357
on for a minute or two and then they'll
just, you know, they compound in errors

00:12:41.440 --> 00:12:43.837
in a way that they just can't recover.

00:12:43.920 --> 00:12:45.037
>> Um, >> and you can
actually see it, right?

00:12:45.120 --> 00:12:47.757
Because they actually they actually,
if you watch watch them operate, they get

00:12:47.840 --> 00:12:51.037
increasingly confused and then,
you know, maybe even deranged. Yeah, they

00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:54.237
vary the range and they they go into
very weird areas and sometimes they

00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:56.157
start speaking Chinese and doing really

00:12:56.240 --> 00:12:59.437
weird things and um but I would say

00:12:59.520 --> 00:13:03.437
sometime around last year we maybe

00:13:03.520 --> 00:13:05.917
crossed the 3 four five minute mark

00:13:06.000 --> 00:13:09.037
>> and it felt to us that okay we're on a

00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:12.397
path where long re you know long horizon

00:13:12.480 --> 00:13:17.197
reasoning is getting solved >> uh
and so we made we made a bet and I I

00:13:17.280 --> 00:13:20.157
tell my team >> so long
horizon reasoning meaning

00:13:20.240 --> 00:13:23.837
reasoning meaning like
dealing in like facts and logic

00:13:23.920 --> 00:13:28.157
>> um in a in a sort of complex way
and then long horizon being over a long

00:13:28.240 --> 00:13:31.037
period of time. Yes. >> With many
many steps to a reasoning process.

00:13:31.120 --> 00:13:34.157
>> Yeah, that's right. So if you think
about the way large language models work

00:13:34.240 --> 00:13:37.757
is that they have a context. This context
is basically the memory all the

00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:42.797
text all your prompt and also all
the internal talk that the AI is doing as

00:13:42.880 --> 00:13:45.437
it's reasoning. So when the AI
is reasoning it's actually talking to

00:13:45.520 --> 00:13:49.357
itself. It's like oh now I need to go
set up a database. Well, what what kind

00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:53.277
of tool do I have? Oh, there's a tool
here that says Postgress. Okay, let me

00:13:53.360 --> 00:13:57.677
try using that. Okay, I use that. I got
feedback. Let me look at the feedback

00:13:57.760 --> 00:13:58.877
and read it. And it'll read the

00:13:58.960 --> 00:14:01.997
feedback. And so the that that prompt

00:14:02.080 --> 00:14:06.877
box or context is where both the user

00:14:06.960 --> 00:14:11.757
input, the environment input, and the
internal thoughts of the machine are all

00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:15.837
within. It's sort of like a program
memory in in memory space. And so

00:14:15.920 --> 00:14:17.917
reasoning over that was the challenge

00:14:18.000 --> 00:14:20.797
for a long time. That's when AIs just

00:14:20.880 --> 00:14:23.677
like went off track and now they're able

00:14:23.760 --> 00:14:25.197
to kind of think through this entire

00:14:25.280 --> 00:14:27.917
thing and and maintain coherence. And

00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:30.717
there's there's now techniques around uh

00:14:30.800 --> 00:14:33.437
compression of contacts. So there still

00:14:33.520 --> 00:14:37.917
context length is still a problem,
right? So I would say LM today, you

00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:40.077
know, they're marketed as a million uh

00:14:40.160 --> 00:14:42.477
token uh length, which is like a million

00:14:42.560 --> 00:14:44.957
words almost. uh in reality it's about

00:14:45.040 --> 00:14:47.437
200,000 and then they start to struggle.

00:14:47.520 --> 00:14:49.997
So we do a lot of uh you know we stop we

00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:54.957
compress the memory. So if a memory
if if a portion of the memory is saying

00:14:55.040 --> 00:14:59.597
that I'm getting all the logs from
the database you can summarize you know

00:14:59.680 --> 00:15:03.997
paragraphs of logs with one statement
or the database setup that's it right and

00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:08.317
so every once in a while we'll compress
the context so that we make sure we

00:15:08.400 --> 00:15:11.997
maintain coherence so that there's a lot
of innovation happened outside of the

00:15:12.080 --> 00:15:16.397
foundation models as well in order to
to enable that long context coherence. So

00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:19.117
what was the what was the key technical
breakthrough at the in the foundation

00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:20.957
models that made this
possible do you think?

00:15:21.040 --> 00:15:22.877
>> I think it's RL I think it's uh

00:15:22.960 --> 00:15:24.957
reinforcement learning. So the way

00:15:25.040 --> 00:15:28.477
pre-training works is you know uh they

00:15:28.560 --> 00:15:31.997
uh pre-training is a uh the first step

00:15:32.080 --> 00:15:35.917
of training a large language model.
It reads a piece of text. It covers the

00:15:36.000 --> 00:15:37.997
last words and tries to guess it. That's

00:15:38.080 --> 00:15:41.037
how it's trained. That doesn't really

00:15:41.120 --> 00:15:44.317
imply long context reasoning. it it you

00:15:44.400 --> 00:15:47.037
know it it turns out to be very very

00:15:47.120 --> 00:15:48.557
effective. It can learn language that

00:15:48.640 --> 00:15:51.597
way. But the reason we weren't able to

00:15:51.680 --> 00:15:54.957
move past that limitation is that that

00:15:55.040 --> 00:15:57.357
modality of training just wasn't good

00:15:57.440 --> 00:15:59.997
enough. And what you want is you want a

00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:03.597
type of problem solving over a uh over

00:16:03.680 --> 00:16:05.837
long context. So what reinforcement

00:16:05.920 --> 00:16:08.717
learning uh uh especially from code

00:16:08.800 --> 00:16:12.557
execution gave us is the ability to for

00:16:12.640 --> 00:16:16.317
the machine to for the LLM to roll out

00:16:16.400 --> 00:16:18.397
what we call trajectories in AI. So

00:16:18.480 --> 00:16:22.717
trajectory is a uh stepbystep reasoning

00:16:22.800 --> 00:16:27.677
chain in order to reach a solution.
So uh the way uh as I understand

00:16:27.760 --> 00:16:29.517
reinforcement learning works is they put

00:16:29.600 --> 00:16:31.917
the LM in a programming environment like

00:16:32.000 --> 00:16:35.757
replet and say hey here's a pro here's a

00:16:35.840 --> 00:16:38.077
codebase here's a bug in the codebase

00:16:38.160 --> 00:16:43.197
and we want you to solve it. Um now
the human trainer already knows what the

00:16:43.280 --> 00:16:46.237
solution would look like. So we have
a pull request that we have on GitHub so

00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:50.157
we know exactly or we have a unit test
that we can run and verify the solution.

00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:53.517
So what it does is it rolls out a lot
of different trajectories. Those they

00:16:53.600 --> 00:16:55.917
sample the model and maybe one of those

00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:57.837
trajectories will reach and a lot of

00:16:57.920 --> 00:17:00.877
them will just go go off off track but

00:17:00.960 --> 00:17:05.517
one of them will reach the solution
by solving the bug and it reinforces on

00:17:05.600 --> 00:17:09.357
that. So that that gets a reward and
the model gets trained that okay you know

00:17:09.440 --> 00:17:12.557
this is how you solve these type
of problems. So that's how we're able to

00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:13.917
extend these reasoning chains.

00:17:14.000 --> 00:17:15.917
>> Got it. and and how it's a two-part

00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:18.557
question is how how how good how good

00:17:18.640 --> 00:17:23.757
are the models now at long long long
reasoning and and I would say and how do

00:17:23.840 --> 00:17:25.197
we know like how how is that

00:17:25.280 --> 00:17:27.757
established? Um

00:17:27.840 --> 00:17:30.877
there is a nonprofit called meter um

00:17:30.960 --> 00:17:34.077
that is uh measuring

00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:37.837
uh useful has a benchmark to measure uh

00:17:37.920 --> 00:17:43.037
how long a model runs while maintaining
coherence and doing useful useful things

00:17:43.120 --> 00:17:46.797
whether it's programming or other
benchmark tasks that they've done. uh

00:17:46.880 --> 00:17:49.357
and they put up a paper I think uh late

00:17:49.440 --> 00:17:52.877
last year that said every seven months

00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:57.277
>> uh the the minutes that a model can run

00:17:57.360 --> 00:18:01.517
is doubling. >> So you go
from 2 minutes to you know 4

00:18:01.600 --> 00:18:05.197
minutes in 7 months I think
they vastly underestimated that.

00:18:05.280 --> 00:18:06.717
>> Is that right? Vastly it's doubling.

00:18:06.800 --> 00:18:08.157
It's doubling more often than 7 months.

00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:10.957
>> We so Asian 3 we measure that you know

00:18:11.040 --> 00:18:16.157
very closely uh and we measure that in
real tasks from real users. So we're not

00:18:16.240 --> 00:18:19.357
doing benchmarking. We're actually doing
AB tests and we're looking at the data

00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:21.677
that how users are successful or not.

00:18:21.760 --> 00:18:24.477
>> For us,
the the absolute sign of success

00:18:24.560 --> 00:18:26.157
is you made an app and you published it.

00:18:26.240 --> 00:18:28.717
Because when you publish it, you're
paying extra money. You're saying this

00:18:28.800 --> 00:18:32.637
app is economically useful. I'm going
to publish it. So that's as clear-cut as

00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:37.357
possible. And so what we're seeing
is in agent one, the agent could run for 2

00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:40.317
minutes >> and then
and then perhaps struggle.

00:18:40.400 --> 00:18:45.597
Agent two came out in February, it ran
for 20 minutes. Agent 3 200 minutes.

00:18:45.680 --> 00:18:48.797
>> Okay, >> 200.
Some users are pushing it to like

00:18:48.880 --> 00:18:50.797
12 hours and things like that. I'm less

00:18:50.880 --> 00:18:53.437
confident that it is as good and when it

00:18:53.520 --> 00:18:56.317
goes to these stratospheres, but at like

00:18:56.400 --> 00:18:59.117
2 3 hours timeline, it is really it's

00:18:59.200 --> 00:19:01.997
it's it's it's insanely good. And and

00:19:02.080 --> 00:19:03.677
the main innovation outside of the

00:19:03.760 --> 00:19:07.117
models is a verification loop. Actually,

00:19:07.200 --> 00:19:09.997
uh I remember reading um a research

00:19:10.080 --> 00:19:12.797
paper from Nvidia. So what Nvidia did is

00:19:12.880 --> 00:19:15.597
they're trying to uh write um GPU

00:19:15.680 --> 00:19:18.877
kernels uh using deepseek and that was

00:19:18.960 --> 00:19:23.597
like perhaps 7 months ago when deepseek
came out and what they found is that if

00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:27.837
we add a verifier in the loop if we can
run the kernel and verify it's working

00:19:27.920 --> 00:19:31.677
we're able to run deepseeek for like
20 minutes and it it was generating

00:19:31.760 --> 00:19:34.077
actually optimized kernels

00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:36.397
>> and so I was like okay the next thing

00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:39.677
for us obviously as an as a sort of a

00:19:39.760 --> 00:19:43.037
agent lab or like applay our company.

00:19:43.120 --> 00:19:46.157
We're not doing the foundation model
stuff, but we're doing a lot of research

00:19:46.240 --> 00:19:50.397
on top of that. And so, okay, we know
that agents can run for 10 20 minutes

00:19:50.480 --> 00:19:52.637
now or LLMs can stay coherent for

00:19:52.720 --> 00:19:55.997
longer, but for you to push them to 200,

00:19:56.080 --> 00:19:58.157
300 minutes, you need a verifier in the

00:19:58.240 --> 00:19:59.917
loop. So, that's why we spend all our

00:20:00.000 --> 00:20:03.757
time uh creating scaffolds to make it so

00:20:03.840 --> 00:20:08.797
that the agent can spin up a browser
and do computer use style testing. So once

00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:10.397
you put that in the middle, what's

00:20:10.480 --> 00:20:12.877
happening is it works for 20 minutes uh

00:20:12.960 --> 00:20:16.157
spin up another agent uh spins up a a

00:20:16.240 --> 00:20:18.077
browser tests the work of the previous

00:20:18.160 --> 00:20:20.157
agent. So it's a multi- aent system

00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:24.557
>> and if it is uh if it founds a bug it

00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:29.037
starts a new trajectory and says okay
good work let's summarize what you did

00:20:29.120 --> 00:20:32.717
the last 20 minutes >> now
that be that plus what the bug that

00:20:32.800 --> 00:20:34.957
we found that's a prompt
for a new trajectory right

00:20:35.040 --> 00:20:37.837
>> so you stack those on each
other and you can go endlessly but

00:20:37.920 --> 00:20:41.037
>> so it's like a mar like setting
up a marathon or like a relay race

00:20:41.120 --> 00:20:43.837
>> as long as as long as each step is done
properly you could do in sort of an

00:20:43.920 --> 00:20:46.077
infinite number of steps >> that's
right that's right you can always

00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:49.197
compress the previous step into
a paragraph And that becomes a prompt. So

00:20:49.280 --> 00:20:51.277
it's it's an agent
prompting the next agent.

00:20:51.360 --> 00:20:54.237
>> Right. Right. Right. That's amazing. So
um and then when when an agent like when

00:20:54.320 --> 00:20:57.677
a modern agent like running on modern
modern LM that are trained this way when

00:20:57.760 --> 00:21:01.117
it let's say it runs for 200 minutes
like when you watch the agent run is it

00:21:01.200 --> 00:21:05.037
like running is it like processing
through like logic and tasks at the same

00:21:05.120 --> 00:21:07.197
pace that like a human being is or

00:21:07.280 --> 00:21:08.797
slower or faster? I

00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:12.637
>> it's actually I would say it is faster

00:21:12.720 --> 00:21:14.957
but not that much significantly faster.

00:21:15.040 --> 00:21:18.397
It's not at computer speed, right?
What we expect computer speed to be.

00:21:18.480 --> 00:21:20.877
>> It's like watching a per like if
you watch if you if it's describing what

00:21:20.960 --> 00:21:23.037
it's doing, it's sort of like
watching a person work.

00:21:23.120 --> 00:21:26.877
>> It's like watching
John Carmarmacine work.

00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:31.277
>> The world Okay. The world's
the world's best programmer.

00:21:31.360 --> 00:21:33.597
>> Yeah. >> The world's best
programmer on a stim on a stimulant.

00:21:33.680 --> 00:21:35.597
>> On a stimulant. Yeah, that's right.

00:21:35.680 --> 00:21:37.037
>> Working for you. Working for you.

00:21:37.120 --> 00:21:41.277
>> Yeah. There. So, it's very fast
and you can see the uh file diffs running

00:21:41.360 --> 00:21:44.557
through, but every once in a while it'll
stop and it'll start thinking. I'll show

00:21:44.640 --> 00:21:47.757
you the reasoning. Yeah. It's like,
I did this and I did this. Am I on the

00:21:47.840 --> 00:21:50.317
right track? It kind of really
tries to reflect, right?

00:21:50.400 --> 00:21:54.557
>> Uh and then it might review its work
and decide the next step or it might kick

00:21:54.640 --> 00:21:59.677
into the testing agent or you know,
so so you're seeing it do all of that and

00:21:59.760 --> 00:22:03.117
every once in a while it calls the tool
for example, it stops and says, well, we

00:22:03.200 --> 00:22:05.597
ran into an issue. you know, Postgress

00:22:05.680 --> 00:22:11.437
um 15 is not um compatible with this,

00:22:11.520 --> 00:22:14.717
you know, database ORM
package that that I have.

00:22:14.800 --> 00:22:17.837
>> Um okay, this is a problem I haven't
seen before. I'm going to go search the

00:22:17.920 --> 00:22:21.997
web. So, it has a web search tool.
Go do that. And so, it looks like a human

00:22:22.080 --> 00:22:24.477
programmer, right? >> And it's
really fascinating to watch.

00:22:24.560 --> 00:22:28.237
It's one of my favorite things to do
is just to watch the tool chain and

00:22:28.320 --> 00:22:30.477
reasoning chain and the testing chain.

00:22:30.560 --> 00:22:34.477
And it's yeah it is like watching
a hyperproductive programmer

00:22:34.560 --> 00:22:37.437
>> right so you know we're kind of getting
into here kind of the holy grail of AI

00:22:37.520 --> 00:22:41.757
which is sort of you know generalized
reasoning um you know by the machine um

00:22:41.840 --> 00:22:46.477
so uh you mentioned this a couple times
but this idea of a of a verification so

00:22:46.560 --> 00:22:49.997
so just for folks on the listening
to podcast who maybe aren't in the details

00:22:50.080 --> 00:22:53.357
let me try to describe this and see see
if I have it right so like a just a just

00:22:53.440 --> 00:22:55.997
a large language model the way you would
exper you would have experienced with

00:22:56.080 --> 00:22:59.357
like Chad GPT out of the gate two years
ago or whatever would have been it's

00:22:59.440 --> 00:23:03.757
like And it's incredible how fluid uh
it is at language. Um it's incredible how

00:23:03.840 --> 00:23:06.877
good it is at like writing Shakespearean
sonnetss or rap lyrics. It's it's

00:23:06.960 --> 00:23:09.917
amazing how good it is at human
conversation. But if you start to ask it

00:23:10.000 --> 00:23:14.157
like problems that involve like rational
thinking uh or problem solving all of a

00:23:14.240 --> 00:23:17.677
sudden like you math or the math the whole
show and and in the very beginning

00:23:17.760 --> 00:23:20.557
it was you could ask if you ask it very
basic math problems, you know, it would

00:23:20.640 --> 00:23:21.757
it would not be able to do them.

00:23:21.840 --> 00:23:24.397
>> That's right. Uh but then even when
it got better at those, if you started to

00:23:24.480 --> 00:23:27.117
ask it to like, you know, it it could
maybe add two small numbers together,

00:23:27.200 --> 00:23:29.837
but it couldn't add two large numbers
together. Or if it could add two large

00:23:29.920 --> 00:23:31.197
numbers, it couldn't multiply them.

00:23:31.280 --> 00:23:32.877
Yeah. >> And it's just
like, all right, this is

00:23:32.960 --> 00:23:35.517
And then it had this there was this
famous the famous was the straw the

00:23:35.600 --> 00:23:37.997
strawberry test, the famous strawberry
test, which is how many Rs are in the

00:23:38.080 --> 00:23:39.037
word strawberry. >> That's right.

00:23:39.120 --> 00:23:41.837
>> And there was this long period where
it it kept it would it would just guess

00:23:41.920 --> 00:23:44.797
wrong. It would say there were only two
Rs in the word strawberry. And it turns

00:23:44.880 --> 00:23:49.757
out there are three. Um, so, um, so it
it was this thing and so people were and

00:23:49.840 --> 00:23:52.637
there was even this term that was being
used kind of the the slur that was being

00:23:52.720 --> 00:23:54.237
used at the time was stoastic parrot.

00:23:54.320 --> 00:23:55.837
>> Yeah, >> I was thinking clanker.

00:23:55.920 --> 00:23:59.997
>> Well, well, clanker is the is the new
slur. Clank clanker. Clanker is just the

00:24:00.080 --> 00:24:02.477
full-on racial slur against AI as a

00:24:02.560 --> 00:24:07.437
species. Um, but the technical critique
was so-called stoastic par stoastic

00:24:07.520 --> 00:24:10.637
means random. Uh so sort of random
parrot me meaning basically that this

00:24:10.720 --> 00:24:13.357
thing was sort of the large language
models were like a they were like a

00:24:13.440 --> 00:24:15.997
mirage where they were like repeating
back to you things that they thought

00:24:16.080 --> 00:24:19.597
that you wanted to hear but they didn't
>> in a way it's true in the in the pure

00:24:19.680 --> 00:24:22.157
pre-training LLM world >> right
for the for the very basic layer

00:24:22.240 --> 00:24:24.877
but then what happened is as you said
over the last year or something there

00:24:24.960 --> 00:24:28.237
there was this layering in of of
reinforcement learning and then but the

00:24:28.320 --> 00:24:32.157
key to >> it's not new crucially
it's like it's alpha go right so

00:24:32.240 --> 00:24:33.597
>> describe so describe that for a second.

00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:35.197
Yeah. So we we had this breakthrough

00:24:35.280 --> 00:24:39.597
before in uh 2015 was the Alph Go

00:24:39.680 --> 00:24:42.477
breakthrough. I think 2015 2016 where it

00:24:42.560 --> 00:24:47.357
is emerging of sort of uh you know the
the the you would know a lot better than

00:24:47.440 --> 00:24:51.997
me the old AI debate between the
connectionists uh the the people who who

00:24:52.080 --> 00:24:53.757
thinks neuronet networks are the true

00:24:53.840 --> 00:24:56.957
sort of way of doing AI and the symbolic

00:24:57.040 --> 00:25:01.837
systems I think or like the people that
think that you know discrete reasonings

00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:05.517
fates and knowledge bases whatever this
is the way to go and so there was there

00:25:05.600 --> 00:25:09.677
was a merging of these two worlds where
the way AlphaG go worked is it had a

00:25:09.760 --> 00:25:13.997
neural network but it had a Monte Carlo
research algorithm on top of that. So

00:25:14.080 --> 00:25:18.317
the neural network would generate uh
would would like uh generate a list of

00:25:18.400 --> 00:25:20.957
potential moves uh and then you had a

00:25:21.040 --> 00:25:23.597
more discrete algorithm sort those moves

00:25:23.680 --> 00:25:26.797
and find the best based on just uh tree

00:25:26.880 --> 00:25:29.357
search based on just trying to verify

00:25:29.440 --> 00:25:30.877
again this sort of a verifier in the

00:25:30.960 --> 00:25:34.557
loop trying to verify which move might

00:25:34.640 --> 00:25:38.077
yield the best based on more classical

00:25:38.160 --> 00:25:40.877
way of doing algorithms. Um, and so that

00:25:40.960 --> 00:25:43.437
that's a resurgence of of that movement

00:25:43.520 --> 00:25:46.637
where we have this amazing generative uh

00:25:46.720 --> 00:25:51.997
neural network that is the the LLM and now
let's layer on more discrete ways of

00:25:52.080 --> 00:25:55.197
trying to verify whether it's doing the
right thing or not and let's put that in

00:25:55.280 --> 00:25:57.117
a training loop and once you do that the

00:25:57.200 --> 00:26:02.237
LLM will start gaining new capabilities
such as uh reasoning over math and code

00:26:02.320 --> 00:26:04.317
and things like that. >> Exactly.
Right. Okay. And then that's

00:26:04.400 --> 00:26:07.677
great. And then and then the the key
thing there though for for RL to work

00:26:07.760 --> 00:26:12.717
for LMS to reason the key is that it
be a a problem statement that there is a

00:26:12.800 --> 00:26:16.477
defined and verifiable answer. That's
right. Is that right? And so and and and

00:26:16.560 --> 00:26:19.117
you might think about this as like
let's give a bunch of examples like in

00:26:19.200 --> 00:26:22.637
medicine this might be like um you know
a diagnosis that like a panel of human

00:26:22.720 --> 00:26:26.077
doctors agrees with um or or or by the
way or a diagnosis that actually you

00:26:26.160 --> 00:26:31.037
know solves the condition. Um in law
this would be a um you know a a argument

00:26:31.120 --> 00:26:34.957
that in front of a jury actually results
in an acquitt or or something like that.

00:26:35.040 --> 00:26:39.037
Um in u math it's an equation that
actually solves properly. Uh in physics

00:26:39.120 --> 00:26:41.277
it's a result that actually
works in the real world.

00:26:41.360 --> 00:26:44.077
>> I don't know in civil engineering it's
a bridge that doesn't collapse. Right. So

00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:45.837
so so there there there's always some

00:26:45.920 --> 00:26:49.117
some test is that the first two do not

00:26:49.200 --> 00:26:51.597
work very well just yet. like the the

00:26:51.680 --> 00:26:55.997
like I would say uh law and healthcare

00:26:56.080 --> 00:27:01.277
they're still a little too squishy
a little too soft it's unlike math or code

00:27:01.360 --> 00:27:04.397
like the way that they're training
on math they're using this uh sort of like

00:27:04.480 --> 00:27:08.637
a program language uh provable language
called lean for proofs right so you can

00:27:08.720 --> 00:27:13.357
run a lean statement you can run
a computer code uh perhaps you can run a

00:27:13.440 --> 00:27:17.677
physics simulation or civil engineering
uh sort of physics simulation but you

00:27:17.760 --> 00:27:21.437
can't run a diagnosis >>
okay So I would say the

00:27:21.520 --> 00:27:23.757
>> but you could verify it
with human answers or or not.

00:27:23.840 --> 00:27:26.557
>> Yeah. So that that's a more RL HF in a

00:27:26.640 --> 00:27:29.277
way. So it is not the like sort of

00:27:29.360 --> 00:27:32.157
autonomous RL train like fully scalable

00:27:32.240 --> 00:27:35.357
autonomous which is why coding is moving

00:27:35.440 --> 00:27:37.357
faster than any other domain is because

00:27:37.440 --> 00:27:40.877
we can we we can generate these problems

00:27:40.960 --> 00:27:44.397
and verify them on the fly. But there's
two but with coding as anybody who's

00:27:44.480 --> 00:27:46.717
coded knows there's coding there's
two tests which is one is does the code

00:27:46.800 --> 00:27:48.717
compile >> right >> and then
the other is does it produce

00:27:48.800 --> 00:27:51.437
the right output and just because it
compiles doesn't mean it produces the

00:27:51.520 --> 00:27:54.237
right output and I you tell me
but verifying that it's the correct output

00:27:54.320 --> 00:27:55.197
is harder

00:27:55.280 --> 00:27:56.957
>> yeah sobbench

00:27:57.040 --> 00:28:02.877
is a collection of uh verified pull

00:28:02.960 --> 00:28:06.157
request end state uh so so it is it is

00:28:06.240 --> 00:28:09.197
not just about compiling we so they they

00:28:09.280 --> 00:28:11.437
group of scientists sobbench is the main

00:28:11.520 --> 00:28:14.877
benchmark used to test whether AI is

00:28:14.960 --> 00:28:16.877
good at software engineering tasks and

00:28:16.960 --> 00:28:19.197
we're almost saturating that. So last

00:28:19.280 --> 00:28:23.277
year we're at like maybe 5% early 24 or

00:28:23.360 --> 00:28:25.997
less and now we're like 82% or something

00:28:26.080 --> 00:28:30.477
like that with cloth on at 4.5 that's
state-of-the-art and that's like a

00:28:30.560 --> 00:28:34.557
really nice health climb that's
happening right now. uh and basically

00:28:34.640 --> 00:28:38.557
they went and looked on GitHub.
They found the the you know most complex

00:28:38.640 --> 00:28:41.197
repositories. They found bug statements

00:28:41.280 --> 00:28:45.917
that are very clear uh and they found
ProQuest that actually solve those bug

00:28:46.000 --> 00:28:49.757
statements with unit tests and everything.
So there is an existing

00:28:49.840 --> 00:28:54.557
corpus on GitHub of tasks that that
the AIS can can solve and you can also

00:28:54.640 --> 00:28:56.557
generate them. Those are not too hard to

00:28:56.640 --> 00:29:00.317
to generate uh you know what's called

00:29:00.400 --> 00:29:04.157
synthetic uh data. Uh uh but but you're

00:29:04.240 --> 00:29:09.437
right it's not infinitely scalable um
because you you some human verifiers

00:29:09.520 --> 00:29:12.557
still need to kind of look at the at
the task but maybe the foundation models

00:29:12.640 --> 00:29:15.677
have found a way to have
the synthetic training go all the way

00:29:15.760 --> 00:29:17.997
>> right and then what's happening I think
I think because what's happening is the

00:29:18.080 --> 00:29:20.877
foundation model companies are in some
cases they are hire they're actually

00:29:20.960 --> 00:29:23.517
hiring human experts to generate
new training data. Yes.

00:29:23.600 --> 00:29:25.997
>> So they're actually hiring
mathematicians and physicists and coders

00:29:26.080 --> 00:29:29.917
to basically sit and you know they're
they're hiring they're they're hiring

00:29:30.000 --> 00:29:31.917
human programmers putting
them on the cocaine. Yes.

00:29:32.000 --> 00:29:37.437
>> Um and having them probably coffee um
uh and having them actually write code and

00:29:37.520 --> 00:29:39.997
then and then write code in a way
where there's a known result of the code

00:29:40.080 --> 00:29:43.277
running such that the this RO loop can
be trained properly. That's right. And

00:29:43.360 --> 00:29:46.077
then the other the other and then the
other thing these companies are doing is

00:29:46.160 --> 00:29:49.677
as you said they're building systems
where the software itself generates the

00:29:49.760 --> 00:29:53.277
training data, generates the tests,
generates the valid the validated

00:29:53.360 --> 00:29:55.677
results and and that's soal
synthetic training data.

00:29:55.760 --> 00:30:00.317
>> That's right. And but yeah,
but but again those work in the very hard

00:30:00.400 --> 00:30:03.677
domains. It works to some
extent in the software domains

00:30:03.760 --> 00:30:06.397
>> and I think there's some transfer
learning we can you can see the

00:30:06.480 --> 00:30:10.157
reasoning work when it comes to you know
tools like deep research and things like

00:30:10.240 --> 00:30:12.557
that but we're not making as fast as

00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:15.117
progress in the in the more soft domain.

00:30:15.200 --> 00:30:17.437
>> So so say softer domains meaning like

00:30:17.520 --> 00:30:22.157
domains in which it's harder harder
or even impossible to actually verify

00:30:22.240 --> 00:30:26.317
correctness of of result in a sort
of a deterministic factual grounded

00:30:26.400 --> 00:30:28.077
>> non-controversial way. Like if you have

00:30:28.160 --> 00:30:29.917
a a chronic disease, you could you could

00:30:30.000 --> 00:30:35.197
have you know you have a POTS or uh you

00:30:35.280 --> 00:30:38.157
know whatever EDS syndrome or and

00:30:38.240 --> 00:30:42.397
they're all they're all clusters
and it's because it it is the domain of

00:30:42.480 --> 00:30:46.797
abstraction. It is not as concrete as code
and math and things like that. So I

00:30:46.880 --> 00:30:48.397
think there's still
a long ways to go there.

00:30:48.480 --> 00:30:51.677
>> Right. So sort of the more concrete the
problem like it's the concretness of the

00:30:51.760 --> 00:30:54.477
problem that is the key variable not the
difficulty of the problem. Would that be

00:30:54.560 --> 00:30:57.837
a way to think about it?
>> Yeah. Yeah. I think the the uh

00:30:57.920 --> 00:31:02.237
concreteness in a sense of can you
get a true or false ver verifiable

00:31:02.320 --> 00:31:05.277
>> right but like in any domain in any
domain of human effort in which there's

00:31:05.360 --> 00:31:07.677
a verifiable answer we should
expect extremely rapid progress.

00:31:07.760 --> 00:31:09.997
>> Yes. >> Right. >> Yes. Absolutely.
And I I think that's what we're saying.

00:31:10.080 --> 00:31:12.477
>> Right. And that and that for sure
includes math. That for sure includes

00:31:12.560 --> 00:31:15.837
physics for sure includes chemistry.
For sure includes >> large areas of code.

00:31:15.920 --> 00:31:18.077
>> That's right. >> Right. What what
else does that include do you think?

00:31:18.160 --> 00:31:22.237
>> Bio like we're seeing with a protein
>> genomic. Yeah. Okay. Right.

00:31:22.320 --> 00:31:23.917
>> Yeah. Yeah. Things like that. I think

00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:28.237
some some areas of robotics, right? Um

00:31:28.320 --> 00:31:30.637
there's a clear outcome, right?

00:31:30.720 --> 00:31:34.717
>> Uh but but it's not that many.
I mean, surprisingly, >> well, it depends.

00:31:34.800 --> 00:31:36.157
>> Yeah, depends on your point of view.

00:31:36.240 --> 00:31:39.917
That's some people might say that's a lot.
Um so, uh and then um you you

00:31:40.000 --> 00:31:42.557
mentioned that we you mentioned the pace
of improvement. So, what would you

00:31:42.640 --> 00:31:45.277
expect from the pace of improvement
going forward for this?

00:31:45.360 --> 00:31:47.437
>> I I think we're
we're ripping on coding.

00:31:47.520 --> 00:31:50.077
Like I think I think it's just it's

00:31:50.160 --> 00:31:52.637
going like I think it's going to be like

00:31:52.720 --> 00:31:55.277
what we're working on with with agent

00:31:55.360 --> 00:31:59.837
floor right now um is by by next year we
think you're going to be sitting instead

00:31:59.920 --> 00:32:02.237
of rep in front of replet and you're

00:32:02.320 --> 00:32:04.477
shooting off multiple agents at a time.

00:32:04.560 --> 00:32:07.437
You're like planning a new feature. Um

00:32:07.520 --> 00:32:10.157
so I I want you know social network on

00:32:10.240 --> 00:32:12.637
top of my storefront and another one is

00:32:12.720 --> 00:32:16.157
like hey um refactor the database. Hey,

00:32:16.240 --> 00:32:17.997
in and you're running parallel agents.

00:32:18.080 --> 00:32:20.797
So, you have five 10 agents kind
of working in the background and they're

00:32:20.880 --> 00:32:25.037
merging the code and taking care of all
of that, but you also have a really nice

00:32:25.120 --> 00:32:28.317
interface on top of that that you're
doing design and you're interacting with

00:32:28.400 --> 00:32:32.637
AI in a more creative way. Uh maybe
using visuals and charts and things like

00:32:32.720 --> 00:32:34.957
that. So, there's a multimodal angle of

00:32:35.040 --> 00:32:37.597
that of that interaction. So I think you

00:32:37.680 --> 00:32:40.237
know creating software is going to be

00:32:40.320 --> 00:32:42.557
such an exciting

00:32:42.640 --> 00:32:45.597
uh area and and and I think that the lay

00:32:45.680 --> 00:32:48.957
person will be as good as a what a

00:32:49.040 --> 00:32:50.477
senior software engineer that works at

00:32:50.560 --> 00:32:52.637
Google uh is today. So I think I think

00:32:52.720 --> 00:32:56.477
that's happening very soon. Um but but

00:32:56.560 --> 00:33:00.877
you know I don't see them and be curious
about your point of view but like my

00:33:00.960 --> 00:33:03.277
experience between as as a sort of a you

00:33:03.360 --> 00:33:06.077
know on the let's say healthcare side or

00:33:06.160 --> 00:33:10.797
more you know write me an essay side
or more creative side haven't seen as much

00:33:10.880 --> 00:33:14.077
of a rapid improvement as what we're
seeing in code. So so I think I think

00:33:14.160 --> 00:33:15.677
code is going to go to the moon. Math is

00:33:15.760 --> 00:33:18.557
probably as well some some you know

00:33:18.640 --> 00:33:22.877
scientific domains bio things like that
those are are going to move really fast.

00:33:22.960 --> 00:33:26.077
>> Yeah. So there's this there's this
there's this weird dynamic see if you

00:33:26.160 --> 00:33:28.957
agree with this and Eric also curious
your point of view on this like there's

00:33:29.040 --> 00:33:31.357
this weird dynamic that we have and we
have this in the office here a lot and I

00:33:31.440 --> 00:33:33.837
also have this with like the leading
of entrepreneurs a lot which is this thing

00:33:33.920 --> 00:33:36.317
of like >> like wow
this is the most amazing

00:33:36.400 --> 00:33:38.637
technology ever and it's moving really
fast and yet we're still like really

00:33:38.720 --> 00:33:43.437
disappointed um and like it's not moving
fast enough and like it's like maybe

00:33:43.520 --> 00:33:46.637
right on the verge of stalling out >>
and like you know we should both be like

00:33:46.720 --> 00:33:49.517
hyper excited but also on the verge
of like slitting our wrists because like

00:33:49.600 --> 00:33:51.517
you know the gravy train
is coming to an end,

00:33:51.600 --> 00:33:53.757
>> right? And and I
always wonder it's like

00:33:53.840 --> 00:33:56.557
you know on the one hand it's like
okay like you know not all I don't know

00:33:56.640 --> 00:33:59.277
ladders go to the moon like just because
something you know looks like it works

00:33:59.360 --> 00:34:01.517
or you know doesn't mean it's going
to you know be able to you're going to be

00:34:01.600 --> 00:34:05.357
able to scale it up and have it work
you know to the fullest extent. Um uh you

00:34:05.440 --> 00:34:08.397
know so like it's important to like
recognize practical limits and not just

00:34:08.480 --> 00:34:11.677
extrapolate everything to infinity.
Um on the other hand like you know we're

00:34:11.760 --> 00:34:14.237
dealing with magic here that we I think
probably all would have thought was

00:34:14.320 --> 00:34:16.717
impossible 5 years ago
or certainly 10 years ago.

00:34:16.800 --> 00:34:19.597
>> Like I I didn't you know look I I
you know I got my CS degree in the late '

00:34:19.680 --> 00:34:22.637
80s early 90s. I I never I didn't think
I would live to see any of this, right?

00:34:22.720 --> 00:34:26.077
Like this is just amazing that this is
actually happening in in in my lifetime.

00:34:26.160 --> 00:34:28.797
>> Um >> but but there's
a huge bet on AGI,

00:34:28.880 --> 00:34:32.317
right? like whether it's the foundation
models uh I think you know now the

00:34:32.400 --> 00:34:34.877
entire US economy is sort of a bet on

00:34:34.960 --> 00:34:37.357
AGI and and there are crucial questions

00:34:37.440 --> 00:34:42.317
to ask whether are we on track to AGI
or not because there are some ways that I

00:34:42.400 --> 00:34:46.957
can tell you it doesn't seem like we're
on track to AGI because we uh because

00:34:47.040 --> 00:34:50.557
there doesn't seem to be transfer
learning across these domains that are

00:34:50.640 --> 00:34:55.677
that are you know significance right
so if we get a lot better at code

00:34:55.760 --> 00:34:59.757
we're not immediately getting better at
like generalized reasoning we need to go

00:34:59.840 --> 00:35:01.757
also you know get training data and

00:35:01.840 --> 00:35:03.757
create RL environment for bio or

00:35:03.840 --> 00:35:06.957
chemistry or physics or math or law or

00:35:07.040 --> 00:35:09.677
so so and this this has been the sort of

00:35:09.760 --> 00:35:11.277
point of discussion now in the AI

00:35:11.360 --> 00:35:14.077
community after the Darkish and Richard

00:35:14.160 --> 00:35:17.197
Sutton uh interview where uh you know

00:35:17.280 --> 00:35:19.197
Richard Sutton kind of poured this cold

00:35:19.280 --> 00:35:22.157
water on the on the bitter lesson. So

00:35:22.240 --> 00:35:24.397
everyone was using this uh essay that he

00:35:24.480 --> 00:35:26.237
wrote called the bitter lesson. The idea

00:35:26.320 --> 00:35:29.597
is that there are um infinitely scalable

00:35:29.680 --> 00:35:34.397
ways of uh doing uh uh AI research and

00:35:34.480 --> 00:35:37.437
and and and anytime you can pour more

00:35:37.520 --> 00:35:41.597
compute and more data and go more
performance out you're just you know

00:35:41.680 --> 00:35:43.277
that's the ultimate way of getting to

00:35:43.360 --> 00:35:47.437
AGI and some people you know interpreted

00:35:47.520 --> 00:35:50.157
that interview that perhaps he's

00:35:50.240 --> 00:35:52.717
doubtful that even we're even on a on a

00:35:52.800 --> 00:35:56.317
bitter uh lessened path here and perhaps

00:35:56.400 --> 00:35:58.797
the current training regime is actually

00:35:58.880 --> 00:36:01.277
very much the opposite in which we we

00:36:01.360 --> 00:36:03.837
are so dependent on human data and human

00:36:03.920 --> 00:36:05.917
annotation and and all of that stuff. So

00:36:06.000 --> 00:36:09.037
I think the I I agree with you. I mean

00:36:09.120 --> 00:36:13.197
as a company we're we're excited about
where things are headed but but there's

00:36:13.280 --> 00:36:15.277
there's a question of like are we on

00:36:15.360 --> 00:36:20.397
track to AGI or not and be curious what
you think. So, so and you know Ilia I

00:36:20.480 --> 00:36:23.037
think you know Ilioskcover makes a makes
a specific form of this argument which

00:36:23.120 --> 00:36:25.357
is basically like we're just literally
running out of training data. It's a

00:36:25.440 --> 00:36:28.557
fossil fuel argument right like if we
slurped all the training fundamentally

00:36:28.640 --> 00:36:30.797
we've slurped all the data off
the internet that is where almost all the

00:36:30.880 --> 00:36:33.597
data is at this point. There's a little
bit more data that's in like you know

00:36:33.680 --> 00:36:36.157
private dark pool somewhere
that we're going to go get but like

00:36:36.240 --> 00:36:38.477
>> we have it all and then right we're
we're in this business now trying to

00:36:38.560 --> 00:36:41.037
generate new data but generating new
data is hard and expensive you know

00:36:41.120 --> 00:36:43.517
compared to just like slurping
things off the internet. So

00:36:43.600 --> 00:36:46.557
>> there are these arguments. Um you know
having said that you know you get into

00:36:46.640 --> 00:36:48.797
definitional questions here really
quick which are kind of a rabbit hole but

00:36:48.880 --> 00:36:51.117
having said that like you mentioned
transfer learning. So transfer learning

00:36:51.200 --> 00:36:54.237
is the ability of the machine to right
to be an expert in one domain and then

00:36:54.320 --> 00:36:56.397
and then generalize
that into another domain.

00:36:56.480 --> 00:36:58.957
>> My answer to that is
like have you met people?

00:36:59.040 --> 00:37:03.037
>> Um and how many people do you
know are able to do transfer learning?

00:37:03.120 --> 00:37:05.437
>> Not many. Right. Well because there's

00:37:05.520 --> 00:37:07.037
>> quite the opposite
actually. The nerdier

00:37:07.120 --> 00:37:11.517
they are in a certain domain the kind of
you know often they have blind spots. We

00:37:11.600 --> 00:37:14.797
joke about how everyone's just
in one area or they make some like

00:37:14.880 --> 00:37:18.157
massive mistake and and like don't trust
them on this but on this other topic you

00:37:18.240 --> 00:37:20.717
know >> right? Yeah. Well and this is a
well-known thing among like for example

00:37:20.800 --> 00:37:22.717
public intellect. So this happens
there's actually been whole books

00:37:22.800 --> 00:37:25.197
written about this on so-called public
intellectuals. So you get these people

00:37:25.280 --> 00:37:28.077
who show up on TV and they're experts
and what happens is they're like an

00:37:28.160 --> 00:37:30.717
expert in economics right and then
they show up on TV and they talk about

00:37:30.800 --> 00:37:33.757
politics and they don't know anything
about politics right or they don't know

00:37:33.840 --> 00:37:36.397
anything about like medicine or they
don't know anything about the law or

00:37:36.480 --> 00:37:38.797
they don't know anything about computers.
You know, this is the Paul

00:37:38.880 --> 00:37:41.197
Gregman talking about how the internet's
going to be no more significant than the

00:37:41.280 --> 00:37:43.197
fax machine. >> Facts.
>> He's a brilliant economist. He has no

00:37:43.280 --> 00:37:44.237
idea what a how a computer works.

00:37:44.320 --> 00:37:45.517
>> Is he a brilliant economist?

00:37:45.600 --> 00:37:49.437
>> Well, at one at one point at one point

00:37:49.520 --> 00:37:54.397
at one point, let's get even if even if
he's a brilliant Well, this is the thing

00:37:54.480 --> 00:37:56.877
like what does that mean? Like should
a brilliant economist be able to

00:37:56.960 --> 00:38:00.717
extrapolate, you know, the internet is
is a good question. But um but the point

00:38:00.800 --> 00:38:03.837
being like even if he is a you know,
take any take anybody Oh, by the way, or

00:38:03.920 --> 00:38:07.757
like Ein like Einstein's like actually
my favorite example. I think you'd agree

00:38:07.840 --> 00:38:09.357
Einstein was a brilliant physicist.

00:38:09.440 --> 00:38:11.437
>> He was like a he
was he was a Stalinist.

00:38:11.520 --> 00:38:14.237
Like he was just he was Yeah. He was a
socialist and he was a Stalinist and he

00:38:14.320 --> 00:38:16.317
was like he thought like
Stalin was fantastic.

00:38:16.400 --> 00:38:18.797
>> Out still. >> Yeah. Okay. All right.

00:38:18.880 --> 00:38:24.077
>> True socialism. >> All right.
All right. Einstein, you know, I'll I'll

00:38:24.160 --> 00:38:26.957
I'll take your word for it. But like
once he got into politics, he was just

00:38:27.040 --> 00:38:29.837
like totally loopy or or you know,
even right or wrong. It's just he just

00:38:29.920 --> 00:38:32.557
sounded like all of a sudden like
an undergraduate lunatic, like somebody in

00:38:32.640 --> 00:38:35.357
a dorm room. Like he there was no
transfer learning from physics into

00:38:35.440 --> 00:38:39.197
politics. like he he didn't listen right
or wrong he didn't there was no there

00:38:39.280 --> 00:38:42.477
was clearly there was nothing new in his
political analysis it was the same wrote

00:38:42.560 --> 00:38:45.757
routine you get out of >> you
know yeah so so in a way the

00:38:45.840 --> 00:38:50.077
argument you're making is like we maybe
already a human level AI I mean perhaps

00:38:50.160 --> 00:38:54.157
the definition of AGI is is is something
totally different is like above human

00:38:54.240 --> 00:38:57.677
level that something that totally
generalizes across domains it's it's not

00:38:57.760 --> 00:39:00.317
something that we've seen >> yeah
like we've ideal yeah I was saying

00:39:00.400 --> 00:39:02.877
we we've we've and you know look we
should we should shoot big but we we've

00:39:02.960 --> 00:39:07.437
idealized a a we've idealized a goal
um that may be idealized in a way that

00:39:07.520 --> 00:39:10.637
like number one it's just it it's it's
like so far beyond what people can do

00:39:10.720 --> 00:39:13.277
that it's you're no longer it's no
longer relevant comparison to people and

00:39:13.360 --> 00:39:16.397
and usually AGI is defined as you know
able to do everything better than a

00:39:16.480 --> 00:39:18.877
person can >> and it's
like well okay so if doing

00:39:18.960 --> 00:39:21.357
everything better than a person can it's
like if a person can't do any transfer

00:39:21.440 --> 00:39:24.717
learning at all >> right doing
even a little little bit a

00:39:24.800 --> 00:39:27.357
marginal bit might might actually
be better or it might not matter just

00:39:27.440 --> 00:39:30.077
because no no human can do it and so
therefore you just you just stack up the

00:39:30.160 --> 00:39:33.357
domains there's also this well-known
phenomenon in AI with you know t

00:39:33.440 --> 00:39:36.317
typically this works the other way which
there's a phenomenon AI AI engineers

00:39:36.400 --> 00:39:38.957
always complain about and scientists
always complain about which is the

00:39:39.040 --> 00:39:42.477
definition of AI is always the next
thing that that the machine can't do and

00:39:42.560 --> 00:39:45.677
so like the definition for of AI for a
long time was like can it beat humans at

00:39:45.760 --> 00:39:47.517
chess >> and then the minute
it could beat humans

00:39:47.600 --> 00:39:50.717
at chess that was no longer AI that
was just like oh that's just like boring

00:39:50.800 --> 00:39:53.437
>> that's computer chess it became >>
computer chess it's just like boring and

00:39:53.520 --> 00:39:56.477
now it's an app on your iPhone and nobody
nobody and nobody cares right and

00:39:56.560 --> 00:40:00.317
it's immediately then >> cheering test was
the test and then we passed it and nobody

00:40:00.400 --> 00:40:02.957
>> we blew this is a really big
deal >> there was no celebration

00:40:03.040 --> 00:40:06.317
>> there was no parties That's exactly
right. There was no for 80 years the

00:40:06.400 --> 00:40:09.117
Turing test I mean they made a movie
about it like the whole thing that was

00:40:09.200 --> 00:40:11.917
the thing and like we blew right through
it and nobody even registered it. Nobody

00:40:12.000 --> 00:40:14.317
cares. It gets no credit for it.
We're just like ah it's still you know

00:40:14.400 --> 00:40:17.997
complete p piece of like >> right
and so there's this thing where so

00:40:18.080 --> 00:40:21.757
the AI scientists are are are used
to complaining basically that they're that

00:40:21.840 --> 00:40:24.157
they're they're being they're always
being judged against the next thing as

00:40:24.240 --> 00:40:26.317
opposed to all the things they've
already they've already solved.

00:40:26.400 --> 00:40:29.757
>> Um uh but but that's maybe the other
side of it which is they're also putting

00:40:29.840 --> 00:40:33.757
out for themselves um an unreasonable
goal. an an unreasonable goal and then

00:40:33.840 --> 00:40:36.957
doing this sort of self flagagillation
kind of along the way and and and I I

00:40:37.040 --> 00:40:39.277
kind of wonder yeah I I wonder
kind of which way that cuts.

00:40:39.360 --> 00:40:41.037
>> Yeah. Yeah.
It's an interesting question

00:40:41.120 --> 00:40:42.557
like I started thinking about this idea

00:40:42.640 --> 00:40:45.117
of like it doesn't matter whether it's

00:40:45.200 --> 00:40:48.237
truly AGI and the way I define AGI is

00:40:48.320 --> 00:40:51.197
that you put in a AI system in any

00:40:51.280 --> 00:40:53.677
environment and efficiently learns right

00:40:53.760 --> 00:40:55.437
>> um you know it
doesn't have to have that

00:40:55.520 --> 00:40:58.557
much prior knowledge in order to kind
of learn something but also can transfer

00:40:58.640 --> 00:41:00.877
that knowledge across different domains.

00:41:00.960 --> 00:41:03.677
Um but you know we can get to like

00:41:03.760 --> 00:41:06.157
functional AGI and what functional AGI

00:41:06.240 --> 00:41:09.357
is is just yeah collect data on every uh

00:41:09.440 --> 00:41:12.637
useful uh economic activity in uh in the

00:41:12.720 --> 00:41:15.517
world today and train an LLM on top of

00:41:15.600 --> 00:41:19.677
that or train the same foundation model
on top of that and and we we'll go we'll

00:41:19.760 --> 00:41:23.757
target every sector economy and and you
can automate a big part of labor that

00:41:23.840 --> 00:41:27.757
way. So I think I think yeah I
think we're on that track for sure.

00:41:27.840 --> 00:41:31.197
>> Right. um you tweeted after GBG5
came out that you were feeling the

00:41:31.280 --> 00:41:35.437
diminishing returns. Yeah. What were you
expecting and but and and what needs to

00:41:35.520 --> 00:41:38.077
be done? Do we need another breakthrough
to get back to the pace of growth or

00:41:38.160 --> 00:41:40.637
what are your thoughts there?
>> I mean this this whole discussion is is

00:41:40.720 --> 00:41:42.557
sort of about that and and my feeling is

00:41:42.640 --> 00:41:46.877
that uh you know GPT5 uh got good at

00:41:46.960 --> 00:41:51.837
verifiable domains. It didn't feel that
much better at anything else. the more

00:41:51.920 --> 00:41:53.437
human angle of it. It felt like it

00:41:53.520 --> 00:41:55.677
regressed and like you had this uh sort

00:41:55.760 --> 00:41:59.837
of uh Reddit pitchfork uh sort of uh

00:41:59.920 --> 00:42:02.317
movement against against Sam and Open AI

00:42:02.400 --> 00:42:04.157
because they felt like they lost a

00:42:04.240 --> 00:42:06.877
friend. Gupta felt a lot more human and

00:42:06.960 --> 00:42:10.957
closer uh whereas GT5 felt a lot more

00:42:11.040 --> 00:42:14.557
robotic, you know, very in its head
kind of trying to think through through

00:42:14.640 --> 00:42:17.437
everything. And um and so I I I would

00:42:17.520 --> 00:42:19.117
have just expected like when we went

00:42:19.200 --> 00:42:23.037
from GP2 2 to 3, it was clear it was

00:42:23.120 --> 00:42:25.757
getting a lot more human. It was uh a

00:42:25.840 --> 00:42:30.557
lot closer to our experience. It can you
can feel like it's actually all it gets

00:42:30.640 --> 00:42:32.397
me like there's something about it that

00:42:32.480 --> 00:42:34.557
understands the world better. Similarly

00:42:34.640 --> 00:42:39.277
3 to four to five didn't feel like it

00:42:39.360 --> 00:42:42.717
was a better overall

00:42:42.800 --> 00:42:45.597
being as it were. But is that is that is

00:42:45.680 --> 00:42:47.917
that is that a is the question there

00:42:48.000 --> 00:42:50.717
like is it emotionality? Is it partly

00:42:50.800 --> 00:42:53.437
emotionality but but again partly like I

00:42:53.520 --> 00:42:55.437
like to ask models like very

00:42:55.520 --> 00:42:58.557
controversial uh things. Um can it

00:42:58.640 --> 00:43:01.117
reason through

00:43:01.200 --> 00:43:06.717
uh I don't know how deep we want to go
here but like um what happened with

00:43:06.800 --> 00:43:09.837
World Trade 7, >> right? >> Sure.

00:43:09.920 --> 00:43:11.197
>> It's an interesting question, right?

00:43:11.280 --> 00:43:15.437
Like I'm not I'm not putting out a theory,
but like it's interesting like

00:43:15.520 --> 00:43:17.517
how did it you know and and can it can

00:43:17.600 --> 00:43:19.917
it think through controversial questions

00:43:20.000 --> 00:43:22.557
>> in the same way that it can go think

00:43:22.640 --> 00:43:27.597
through a coding problem and there
hasn't been any movement there like the

00:43:27.680 --> 00:43:30.797
all the reasoning and all of that stuff
I haven't se and not just that you know

00:43:30.880 --> 00:43:36.237
that's a cute example but like um co
right like you know the origins of co

00:43:36.320 --> 00:43:41.197
right >> you know go you know
dig up GPT4 or other models

00:43:41.280 --> 00:43:44.957
and go to GPT5, you're not going to find
that much difference of okay, let's

00:43:45.040 --> 00:43:48.157
reason together. Let's try to figure out
what was the origins of CO because it's

00:43:48.240 --> 00:43:52.237
still an unanswered question, you know,
and I don't see them making progress in

00:43:52.320 --> 00:43:53.517
that. I mean, you play a lot with them.

00:43:53.600 --> 00:43:55.277
Do you feel like >> I use
it differently? I don't know,

00:43:55.360 --> 00:43:59.597
maybe I have different expectations.
Um, I I'm I the way I my main use case

00:43:59.680 --> 00:44:03.437
actually is sort of sort of PhD and
everything at my beck and call. Um, and

00:44:03.520 --> 00:44:05.997
so I'm I'm trying to get it to explain
things to me more than I'm trying to

00:44:06.080 --> 00:44:09.357
like, you know, have conversations
with it. Maybe maybe I'm just unusual with

00:44:09.440 --> 00:44:12.317
that. But >> and that that that gets back
>> well. So what I what I what I found

00:44:12.400 --> 00:44:16.397
specifically is uh a combination of like
GPT5 Pro plus deep reasoning or like

00:44:16.480 --> 00:44:21.277
Rock 4 heavy like the you know the the
highest end models um u like that um you

00:44:21.360 --> 00:44:24.797
know they now basically generate 30
to 40 page you know essentially books on

00:44:24.880 --> 00:44:29.677
demand on any topic. Um and so anytime
I get curious about something you just

00:44:29.760 --> 00:44:32.397
take it maybe it's my version of it but
it's something like I don't like a good

00:44:32.480 --> 00:44:36.157
here's a good example. um when when when
a when an advanced economy puts a tariff

00:44:36.240 --> 00:44:38.957
on on on a raw m you know on a raw
material or on a finished good like who

00:44:39.040 --> 00:44:42.477
pays >> you know is it is it the consumer
is it the is it the importer is it the

00:44:42.560 --> 00:44:45.677
exporter or is it the producer and
and this actually a very complicated it

00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:48.557
turns out very complicated question
it's a big big big thing that economists

00:44:48.640 --> 00:44:51.757
study a lot and it's just like okay who
you know who pays and what I found like

00:44:51.840 --> 00:44:53.677
for that kind of thing is it's outstanding

00:44:53.760 --> 00:44:57.437
>> well well but but it's outstanding
at um sort of going out of the web getting

00:44:57.520 --> 00:45:00.637
information synthesizing it >>
correct it it gives me it gives me a

00:45:00.720 --> 00:45:02.957
synthesized 20 30 40 p basically tops

00:45:03.040 --> 00:45:05.437
out 40 p 40 40 pages of PDF. Yeah.

00:45:05.520 --> 00:45:09.037
>> Um uh but I can get I can get up
to 40 pages of PDF but it's a completely

00:45:09.120 --> 00:45:12.317
coherent and as far as I can tell for
everything I've cross-cheed a completely

00:45:12.400 --> 00:45:15.997
like it like world class like if I hired
you know for a question like that if I

00:45:16.080 --> 00:45:20.317
hired like a great you know econ
posttock at Stanford who just like went

00:45:20.400 --> 00:45:22.877
out and did that work like
it would maybe be that good.

00:45:22.960 --> 00:45:24.477
>> Yeah. Um but then
but then of course the

00:45:24.560 --> 00:45:28.077
significance is it's like it's like you
know at least for this is true for many

00:45:28.160 --> 00:45:29.917
domains you know kind
of PhD and everything and so

00:45:30.000 --> 00:45:33.277
>> but but this is synthesizing knowledge
not trying to create new knowledge.

00:45:33.360 --> 00:45:35.037
>> Well but this this
gets to the this sort

00:45:35.120 --> 00:45:37.837
of you know of course the you get into
the angels dancing on the head of a pin

00:45:37.920 --> 00:45:40.797
thing which is like what what you know
what's the difference how many how much

00:45:40.880 --> 00:45:44.157
new knowledge ever actually is there
anyway? What do you actually expect from

00:45:44.240 --> 00:45:47.437
people when you ask them questions?
Um, and so what what I'm looking for is

00:45:47.520 --> 00:45:50.157
like, yes, explain this to me
in like the the the clearest, most

00:45:50.240 --> 00:45:53.677
sophisticated, most complex, most like
complete way that it's possible for

00:45:53.760 --> 00:45:57.757
somebody to, you know, for a real expert
to be able to to to explain things to me.

00:45:57.840 --> 00:46:00.077
>> Um, and that's what I use it for.
And again, as far as I can tell from the

00:46:00.160 --> 00:46:02.877
crossing, like I'm getting, you know,
like almost like basically 100 out of

00:46:02.960 --> 00:46:07.517
100, like I don't even think I've had
an issue in months where it's like had had

00:46:07.600 --> 00:46:09.917
a problem in it. >> And it's
like, yeah, you can say, yeah,

00:46:10.000 --> 00:46:12.237
synthesizing is supposed to create
new information, but like it's it's

00:46:12.320 --> 00:46:15.037
generating a 40 p.
He's basically generating a 40-page book.

00:46:15.120 --> 00:46:18.157
>> That's amazing. >> That's
like incredibly like fluid. It's,

00:46:18.240 --> 00:46:22.077
you know, it's it's it's it's you know,
the the logical coherence of the entire

00:46:22.160 --> 00:46:26.477
like it's it's a great writing. Like
if if you if you evaluated an a a human

00:46:26.560 --> 00:46:29.677
author on it, you would say, "Wow,
that's a great author." You know, do are

00:46:29.760 --> 00:46:32.877
people who write books, you know,
creating new knowledge? Well, yeah.

00:46:32.960 --> 00:46:35.997
Well, sort of not because a lot of what
they're doing is building on everything

00:46:36.080 --> 00:46:39.677
that came before them is synthesizing
a mind, but also like a book is a creative

00:46:39.760 --> 00:46:43.517
accomplishment, right? And so, >> yeah,
one of the thing I'm I'm I'm I'm

00:46:43.600 --> 00:46:45.917
interested in I'm hoping AI could help

00:46:46.000 --> 00:46:49.357
us solve is just like how confusing the

00:46:49.440 --> 00:46:53.037
information ecosystem right now. You know,
everything feels like propaganda.

00:46:53.120 --> 00:46:55.997
Like it doesn't feel like you're getting
real information from anywhere. So, I I

00:46:56.080 --> 00:46:59.837
really want an AI that could help
me reason from first principles about

00:46:59.920 --> 00:47:04.237
what's happening in the world for me
to actually get real information. and and

00:47:04.320 --> 00:47:08.877
maybe that's an unreasonable sort of ask
of of the AI researchers, but but I

00:47:08.960 --> 00:47:12.077
don't think we're we have made any
progress there. So maybe I'm over focus.

00:47:12.160 --> 00:47:15.277
Yeah, maybe I'm over in being in my
my line or maybe I'm over focused on ar

00:47:15.360 --> 00:47:18.877
arguing at people as opposed to um
trying to get as trying to get underline

00:47:18.960 --> 00:47:21.917
truth. But well here here's the thing I
I do a lot with this is I just say like

00:47:22.000 --> 00:47:25.837
take take a provocative point of view
um and then steel man the position take

00:47:25.920 --> 00:47:29.277
your co thing steel so I often I often
pair these steel man the position that

00:47:29.360 --> 00:47:32.877
it was a lab leak um and steel man
the position that it was natural origins

00:47:32.960 --> 00:47:34.317
>> um and and again
like is this creativity

00:47:34.400 --> 00:47:37.357
or not? I don't know. But like what
comes back is like 30 pages each of like

00:47:37.440 --> 00:47:40.237
wow like that is like the most
compelling case in the world I can

00:47:40.320 --> 00:47:42.877
imagine with like every you know
everything marshaled against it like the

00:47:42.960 --> 00:47:44.557
argument structured
in like the most possible

00:47:44.640 --> 00:47:47.037
>> part of the reason that started
happening is because it stopped being

00:47:47.120 --> 00:47:51.277
taboo to talk about a human
origin when it was taboo

00:47:51.360 --> 00:47:53.917
>> the the AIS would like talk will you

00:47:54.000 --> 00:47:55.757
know talk down to like oh you're a

00:47:55.840 --> 00:47:58.957
conspiracy theorist and so yes uh so

00:47:59.040 --> 00:48:02.877
there's a there's a you know period
of time and so it takes something truly

00:48:02.960 --> 00:48:05.757
controversial and they actually they
they can't reason about it because of

00:48:05.840 --> 00:48:09.677
all RLHF and answers all the limitations
and as as you know I won't pick no

00:48:09.760 --> 00:48:12.237
specific ones here but like there there
are certain certain big models that will

00:48:12.320 --> 00:48:14.877
still lecture you >> that you're
a bad person for asking that

00:48:14.960 --> 00:48:17.917
question but but you know like I just
there some of them are just like really

00:48:18.000 --> 00:48:19.437
really open now to you know being able

00:48:19.520 --> 00:48:20.797
to do these things

00:48:20.880 --> 00:48:25.517
>> um and then um uh yeah so um okay uh

00:48:25.600 --> 00:48:29.517
yeah so okay so yeah so there's this
yeah so so basically like ultimately

00:48:29.600 --> 00:48:32.717
what you're looking for like
the ultimate thing would be if there's

00:48:32.800 --> 00:48:34.957
something that's like I don't I think
anybody's really defined this really

00:48:35.040 --> 00:48:37.597
well because it's not because again
it's like the conventional all the

00:48:37.680 --> 00:48:40.077
conventional definitions of AGI are
like basically comparing to people.

00:48:40.160 --> 00:48:41.757
>> Yeah. >> And there
there and there it's always

00:48:41.840 --> 00:48:44.317
like you know it's the conventional

00:48:44.400 --> 00:48:49.277
explanations of of of um of uh of AGI
always for me struck me a lot like the

00:48:49.360 --> 00:48:51.677
debate around like whether
a self-driving car works or not which is

00:48:51.760 --> 00:48:55.277
is does a self-driving car work because
it's a perfect driver uh or does it work

00:48:55.360 --> 00:48:58.877
because it is a is better than the human
driver and better than the human driver

00:48:58.960 --> 00:49:01.757
I think is actually quite you know just
like with the the chess thing and the go

00:49:01.840 --> 00:49:04.477
thing. I actually think like that that
that's like a real thing. And then and

00:49:04.560 --> 00:49:07.277
then and then and then there's the like
is it a perfect driver which is you know

00:49:07.360 --> 00:49:09.597
what they're obviously the the
self-driving car companies are working

00:49:09.680 --> 00:49:12.557
for but then I think you're looking
for something beyond the perfect driver.

00:49:12.640 --> 00:49:16.077
You're looking for the car who like
knows where to go. So I I I I'm of two

00:49:16.160 --> 00:49:20.157
minds, right? So one mind is the sort
of practical entrepreneur, right?

00:49:20.240 --> 00:49:22.797
>> Uh and I just I have so many toys to

00:49:22.880 --> 00:49:27.277
play with to build like stop AI progress
today and replet will continue to get

00:49:27.360 --> 00:49:30.477
better for the next 5 years.
like there's so much we can do just on the

00:49:30.560 --> 00:49:33.197
app uh app layer
and the infrastructure layer.

00:49:33.280 --> 00:49:37.757
>> So you know I but but I think that will
you know the the foundation models will

00:49:37.840 --> 00:49:40.877
continue to get better as well and so
it's it's a very exciting time in our

00:49:40.960 --> 00:49:45.277
industry. Um the other mind is more
academic because as a kid I've always

00:49:45.360 --> 00:49:49.197
been interested in the nature of
consciousness, nature of intelligence. I

00:49:49.280 --> 00:49:51.277
was always interested in AI and reading

00:49:51.360 --> 00:49:56.397
the literature there and I would point
to the RL uh literature. So Richard

00:49:56.480 --> 00:50:00.397
Soden, there's another guy I think
co-founder of deep mind Shane Lag wrote

00:50:00.480 --> 00:50:02.797
wrote a paper trying to define what AGI

00:50:02.880 --> 00:50:06.237
is. Um and in there I think that the

00:50:06.320 --> 00:50:08.717
definition of AI I think is the is the

00:50:08.800 --> 00:50:12.317
original perhaps correct one which is uh

00:50:12.400 --> 00:50:16.237
efficient continual learning. >> Okay.
Like if you if you truly want to

00:50:16.320 --> 00:50:20.557
build an artificial general intelligence
that you can drop in any domain, you can

00:50:20.640 --> 00:50:23.117
drop in a car without that much prior

00:50:23.200 --> 00:50:27.437
knowledge about cars and within um you

00:50:27.520 --> 00:50:31.117
know how long does it take a human to to
learn how to drive you within months be

00:50:31.200 --> 00:50:35.437
able to drive a car really well,
you know, generalized skill sort of

00:50:35.520 --> 00:50:39.437
generalized skill acquisition,
generalized understanding acquisition,

00:50:39.520 --> 00:50:43.277
generalized reasoning acquisition. And I
think that's the thing that will like

00:50:43.360 --> 00:50:47.437
truly change the world. That's
the thing that would give us a better

00:50:47.520 --> 00:50:49.597
understanding of of the human mind of

00:50:49.680 --> 00:50:51.917
human consciousness and that's the thing

00:50:52.000 --> 00:50:54.637
that will like propel us to the next uh

00:50:54.720 --> 00:50:57.437
level of human civilization.

00:50:57.520 --> 00:50:59.757
on a civilization level that's a really

00:50:59.840 --> 00:51:04.760
deep question but separ

00:51:05.600 --> 00:51:07.517
but but there's an academic
aspect of it that I'm really

00:51:07.600 --> 00:51:10.477
>> so what and what odds what if we're
on if we're on Kelsey today what what odds

00:51:10.560 --> 00:51:11.677
do we place on that

00:51:11.760 --> 00:51:15.197
>> I I I'm kind of bearish on on on true

00:51:15.280 --> 00:51:17.757
AGI breakthrough because

00:51:17.840 --> 00:51:20.797
>> what we built is so useful and

00:51:20.880 --> 00:51:23.997
economically valuable uh so in a way

00:51:24.080 --> 00:51:28.157
>> good enough good enough is the enemy
Yeah. Yeah. Do do you remember that

00:51:28.240 --> 00:51:29.997
essay? Um, >> worse is better.

00:51:30.080 --> 00:51:32.397
>> Worse is better. >> Worse is better.
Worse is better. And and

00:51:32.480 --> 00:51:35.117
>> so there's like a local there's like
a trap. There's like a local local maximum

00:51:35.200 --> 00:51:38.557
trap. We're in a local maximum >>
local maximum trap where it's because

00:51:38.640 --> 00:51:41.757
it's because it's good enough for so
much economically productive work.

00:51:41.840 --> 00:51:44.477
>> Yes. >> It relieves
the pressure um in the

00:51:44.560 --> 00:51:46.077
system to create the generalized answer.

00:51:46.160 --> 00:51:49.197
>> Yes. And and then you have the weirdos
like Rich Sutton and others that are

00:51:49.280 --> 00:51:51.917
still trying to go that down
that path and maybe they'll succeed,

00:51:52.000 --> 00:51:55.997
>> right? Uh but there's enormous
optimization energy behind the current

00:51:56.080 --> 00:51:58.637
thing that we're hell climbing
on this like local maximum.

00:51:58.720 --> 00:52:01.037
>> Right. Right. Right. And and the irony
of it is everybody's worried about like

00:52:01.120 --> 00:52:03.517
the you know the gazillions of dollars
going into building out all this stuff

00:52:03.600 --> 00:52:06.797
and and so the the the most ironic thing
in the world would be if the gazillions

00:52:06.880 --> 00:52:08.477
of dollars are going
into the local maximum.

00:52:08.560 --> 00:52:10.557
>> That's right.
>> As as opposed to a counterfactual world

00:52:10.640 --> 00:52:12.397
in which they're going into
solving the general problem.

00:52:12.480 --> 00:52:15.197
>> But but it's also potentially
irrational. Like maybe the general

00:52:15.280 --> 00:52:20.077
problem is actually you know not within
our lifetimes. Who knows? Right. Um, h

00:52:20.160 --> 00:52:22.877
>> how much further do you think like
do you think we squeeze most of the juice

00:52:22.960 --> 00:52:26.077
out of out of LLMs in general then?
Or are there any other research directions

00:52:26.160 --> 00:52:29.597
that you're particularly um excited about?

00:52:29.680 --> 00:52:31.837
>> Well, that's the thing. I think the

00:52:31.920 --> 00:52:33.997
problem is there aren't that that many.

00:52:34.080 --> 00:52:38.717
I I think the the the breakthroughs
in RL are incredibly exciting, but we also

00:52:38.800 --> 00:52:42.637
knew about them now for like over 10
years where you marry generative uh

00:52:42.720 --> 00:52:47.357
systems with uh with tree search
and things like that. Um but but there's a

00:52:47.440 --> 00:52:51.997
lot more to go there and I think again
the the the the original minds behind

00:52:52.080 --> 00:52:55.517
reinforcement learning are trying
to go down that path and try to kind of

00:52:55.600 --> 00:53:00.557
bootstrap intelligence from scratch.
Uh Carmarmac is is going down that path as

00:53:00.640 --> 00:53:04.237
as far as I understand Carmarmac you
guys may be invested but the the you

00:53:04.320 --> 00:53:07.277
know they're they're not trying to go
down the LLM path. So there are people

00:53:07.360 --> 00:53:11.997
that are trying to do that but I'm
not seeing a lot of progress or outcome

00:53:12.080 --> 00:53:13.837
there but I watch it kind of from far.

00:53:13.920 --> 00:53:16.237
Although, you know, for all we know,
it's already there's already a bot on X

00:53:16.320 --> 00:53:19.837
somewhere. >> You know,
you know, you never know. It

00:53:19.920 --> 00:53:21.917
might not be a big announcement.
It might just be a you know, one day

00:53:22.000 --> 00:53:24.477
there's just like a bot on X that
starts winning all the arguments.

00:53:24.560 --> 00:53:28.957
>> Yeah, it could be >> or a
code a user read and all of a

00:53:29.040 --> 00:53:31.677
sudden it's >> generating
incredible software. Um,

00:53:31.760 --> 00:53:34.477
okay. Let's uh let's spend our remaining
minutes. Let's let's let's talk about

00:53:34.560 --> 00:53:38.717
you. So, uh so uh so how so yeah, take
us start from the beginning with your uh

00:53:38.800 --> 00:53:41.197
with your life and how how did you get
how did you get from being born to being

00:53:41.280 --> 00:53:45.597
in Silicon Valley? >> Okay.
um >> in two minutes. Yeah,

00:53:45.680 --> 00:53:47.197
>> I'm just I'm joking. But

00:53:47.280 --> 00:53:50.557
>> yeah, I I got
introduced to computers uh

00:53:50.640 --> 00:53:53.437
very very early on. And so for whatever

00:53:53.520 --> 00:53:58.557
reason, so I was born in Aman, Jordan
>> and for whatever reason, my my dad who

00:53:58.640 --> 00:54:00.397
was just a government engineer at the

00:54:00.480 --> 00:54:03.597
time uh decided that computers were

00:54:03.680 --> 00:54:07.757
important and he didn't have a lot
of money took out of that, bought a

00:54:07.840 --> 00:54:10.477
computer. It was the first computer
in their in our neighborhood. first

00:54:10.560 --> 00:54:14.317
computer of anyone I know. And I just

00:54:14.400 --> 00:54:18.077
one of my earliest memories I was 6
years old just watching my dad unpack

00:54:18.160 --> 00:54:20.877
this machine and sort of open up this

00:54:20.960 --> 00:54:24.317
huge manual and kind of finger type CD

00:54:24.400 --> 00:54:29.197
LS MKDIR and like I would, you know,
be behind his shoulder and just like

00:54:29.280 --> 00:54:33.197
watching him, you know, type these
commands and seeing the sort of machine

00:54:33.280 --> 00:54:36.157
kind of respond and do exactly what he's

00:54:36.240 --> 00:54:41.680
asked it to do. Um,
>> pop in Tylenol as your

00:54:41.840 --> 00:54:47.757
Exactly. Autism activated.
>> Of course, you have to.

00:54:47.840 --> 00:54:51.517
>> You have to. >> Exactly.
What kind of um what kind of

00:54:51.600 --> 00:54:55.917
computer was it? >> Uh it
was uh an IBM as far as I

00:54:56.000 --> 00:55:00.557
remember. It was IBM PC.
>> What year was this? Uh 1993.

00:55:00.640 --> 00:55:03.917
>> 1993. Okay. So, it's DOS. So,
did it have Windows at that point or

00:55:04.000 --> 00:55:05.197
>> No, it didn't have Windows.

00:55:05.280 --> 00:55:07.917
>> Right before Windows. right before
Windows, but I think Windows had been

00:55:08.000 --> 00:55:11.277
out, but you would add >> you it
was an add-on. You wouldn't boot

00:55:11.360 --> 00:55:13.597
it up. So, we I think we bought the disc

00:55:13.680 --> 00:55:16.397
for uh for uh for Windows and you had to

00:55:16.480 --> 00:55:20.797
kind of uh bootloaded, you know,
from the disk and and it will open Windows

00:55:20.880 --> 00:55:24.077
and you can click around. It wasn't
that interesting cuz there wasn't a lot on

00:55:24.160 --> 00:55:25.917
it. So, a lot of time I just spend in

00:55:26.000 --> 00:55:28.477
DOSs and writing batch files and opening

00:55:28.560 --> 00:55:31.597
games and messing around with that. Um

00:55:31.680 --> 00:55:36.637
but it wasn't until Visual Basic that I
started. So like after Windows 95 that I

00:55:36.720 --> 00:55:38.317
started making real software, right?

00:55:38.400 --> 00:55:41.997
>> Uh and the first idea I had was um I I

00:55:42.080 --> 00:55:44.477
used to be a huge gamer. So I used I

00:55:44.560 --> 00:55:49.437
used to go to these uh Lang gaming cafes
and play Counter Strike and I would go

00:55:49.520 --> 00:55:52.797
there and you know the whole thing is full
of computers but they don't use any

00:55:52.880 --> 00:55:56.477
software to run their business. M it
was just like people running around just

00:55:56.560 --> 00:56:00.317
like writing down your machine number,
how much time you spend on it and how

00:56:00.400 --> 00:56:03.277
much did you pay and kind of tapping
your shoulders like hey you need to pay

00:56:03.360 --> 00:56:06.797
a little more for that. And I asked
him like why don't you like just build a

00:56:06.880 --> 00:56:09.997
piece of software that allows me to log
in and have a time or whatever. And I

00:56:10.080 --> 00:56:13.117
was like yeah we don't know how to do
that. And I was like okay I think I know

00:56:13.200 --> 00:56:17.357
how to do that. So I spent I was like
12 or something like that. I spent like 2

00:56:17.440 --> 00:56:21.517
years building that uh and then went
out and tried to sell it and was able to

00:56:21.600 --> 00:56:23.597
sell it uh and was making so much money.

00:56:23.680 --> 00:56:26.637
I remember McDonald's opened uh in

00:56:26.720 --> 00:56:30.717
Jordan uh around the time when I
was 13 14. I took my entire class to

00:56:30.800 --> 00:56:32.237
McDonald's. It was very expensive, but I

00:56:32.320 --> 00:56:35.677
was balling it all this money and I was

00:56:35.760 --> 00:56:39.677
showing off um and uh and so that was

00:56:39.760 --> 00:56:43.517
the first uh business that I uh created.

00:56:43.600 --> 00:56:46.397
And then when it came to and at the time

00:56:46.480 --> 00:56:48.877
I started kind of learning about AI, you

00:56:48.960 --> 00:56:53.757
know, reading sci-fi and all of that
stuff. And when it came time to go to

00:56:53.840 --> 00:56:57.917
college, uh I didn't want to go
to computer science because I felt like

00:56:58.000 --> 00:57:02.877
coding is on its way to get automated.
I remember using these um wizards. Do you

00:57:02.960 --> 00:57:05.997
remember wizards? >> Yes.
>> Wizards basically. It's like extremely

00:57:06.080 --> 00:57:09.197
crude early bots or that generate code.

00:57:09.280 --> 00:57:10.797
Yeah. >> Yeah.
And I remember you could like, you

00:57:10.880 --> 00:57:13.837
know, type in a few things like
here's my project, here's what it does,

00:57:13.920 --> 00:57:17.197
whatever, and then click click click and
just like scaffold a lot of code. I was

00:57:17.280 --> 00:57:18.637
like, oh, I think that's the future.

00:57:18.720 --> 00:57:22.637
Like coding is such a >> it's almost >>
yeah it's solved you know why why should

00:57:22.720 --> 00:57:27.197
I go into coding I was okay if AI can
do the code what should I do well someone

00:57:27.280 --> 00:57:30.317
needs to build and maintain the computers
and so I went to the computer

00:57:30.400 --> 00:57:32.477
engineering and and and did that for a

00:57:32.560 --> 00:57:35.757
while uh but then rediscovered my love

00:57:35.840 --> 00:57:38.397
for for programming uh reading program

00:57:38.480 --> 00:57:41.197
essays on lisp and things like that and

00:57:41.280 --> 00:57:45.597
uh started messing around with scheme
and programming languages like that um

00:57:45.680 --> 00:57:49.277
but then I found it incredibly difficult
to just like learn different programming

00:57:49.360 --> 00:57:53.277
languages. I didn't have a laptop at
the time. And so every time I go to like

00:57:53.360 --> 00:57:56.077
wanting to learn Python or Java, I would

00:57:56.160 --> 00:57:58.717
go to the computer lab, download

00:57:58.800 --> 00:58:01.517
gigabytes of software, try to set it up,

00:58:01.600 --> 00:58:03.677
type a little bit of code, try to run

00:58:03.760 --> 00:58:06.797
it, you know, run into missing DL issue

00:58:06.880 --> 00:58:10.077
or and I was like, man, this is so

00:58:10.160 --> 00:58:13.037
primitive. Like at the time it was 2008

00:58:13.120 --> 00:58:16.157
something like that you know we had uh

00:58:16.240 --> 00:58:18.317
Google Docs, we had Gmail, you could

00:58:18.400 --> 00:58:21.357
like open the browser uh and partly

00:58:21.440 --> 00:58:23.917
thanks to you and be able to kind of uh

00:58:24.000 --> 00:58:28.397
use software on the internet and I
thought the web is the ultimate software

00:58:28.480 --> 00:58:31.917
platform like everything should go
on the web. Okay, who's building an online

00:58:32.000 --> 00:58:35.837
development environment, right? And and no
one, right? And it felt like I w I

00:58:35.920 --> 00:58:40.637
found like $100 bill on the, you know,
on the floor of Grand Association. Like

00:58:40.720 --> 00:58:44.237
surely someone should be building this,
but no, no one was building this. And so

00:58:44.320 --> 00:58:46.557
I was like, okay,
I'll I'll try to build it.

00:58:46.640 --> 00:58:51.437
>> And I got something done in like
a couple hours. Uh, which was a text box.

00:58:51.520 --> 00:58:54.797
You type in some JavaScript. We
And there's a there's a button that says

00:58:54.880 --> 00:58:57.597
eval. You click eval and evaluates. It

00:58:57.680 --> 00:58:59.757
shows you in a in an alert box, right?

00:58:59.840 --> 00:59:03.917
Right. So oneplus 1 2 I was like oh I
have a programming environment. I showed

00:59:04.000 --> 00:59:07.197
it to my friends people started using it.
I added a few additional things like

00:59:07.280 --> 00:59:11.037
saving the program. I was like okay
all right this is there's there's a real

00:59:11.120 --> 00:59:15.277
idea here. People love it. And then
again it took me two two or three years

00:59:15.360 --> 00:59:18.877
to actually be able to build anything
because you know the browser can only

00:59:18.960 --> 00:59:21.117
run JavaScript. And it took a

00:59:21.200 --> 00:59:24.077
breakthrough at the time. Uh, Moisella

00:59:24.160 --> 00:59:26.397
had a research project called mcripton

00:59:26.480 --> 00:59:30.077
that allowed you to uh compile different

00:59:30.160 --> 00:59:32.237
uh programming languages like C, C++

00:59:32.320 --> 00:59:35.597
into JavaScript. And for the browser to

00:59:35.680 --> 00:59:39.437
be able to run something like Python,
I needed to compile C, Python to

00:59:39.520 --> 00:59:44.237
JavaScript. So I was the first to do it
in the world. uh so built uh contributed

00:59:44.320 --> 00:59:45.677
to that project and built a lot of the

00:59:45.760 --> 00:59:49.357
scaffolding around it and we uh my

00:59:49.440 --> 00:59:53.917
friends and I compiled Python into
JavaScript and I was like okay we did it

00:59:54.000 --> 00:59:58.077
for Python let's do it for Ruby let's
do it for Lo and that's how the emergence

00:59:58.160 --> 01:00:01.837
of the idea for replet came is that when
you need a ripple you should get it you

01:00:01.920 --> 01:00:05.437
should replet it and so ripple is is the
most primitive programming environment

01:00:05.520 --> 01:00:08.877
possible so I added all these
programming languages and again all this

01:00:08.960 --> 01:00:11.597
time my friends were
using it and excited about

01:00:11.680 --> 01:00:15.997
And I was on GitHub at the time and just
my standard thing is like when I make a

01:00:16.080 --> 01:00:19.677
piece of software is open source it. And
so I was open sourcing all the things I

01:00:19.760 --> 01:00:23.517
was you know years building just like
this underlying infrastructure to be

01:00:23.600 --> 01:00:25.757
able to just run code in the browser

01:00:25.840 --> 01:00:28.157
>> and then it went viral uh went viral in

01:00:28.240 --> 01:00:31.357
hacker news and it coincided with the

01:00:31.440 --> 01:00:34.397
MOO era. So massively online courses

01:00:34.480 --> 01:00:38.797
Udacity was coming online Corsera
and and most famously Code Academy. Right.

01:00:38.880 --> 01:00:42.717
So, Code Academy uh was the first kind
of website that allowed you to code in

01:00:42.800 --> 01:00:46.477
the browser interactively and learn how
to code. And they built a lot of it on

01:00:46.560 --> 01:00:49.597
my software that I was open sourcing all
the way from Jordan. And so, I remember

01:00:49.680 --> 01:00:52.237
seeing them on Hacker News and they
were going super viral. I was like, "Hey,

01:00:52.320 --> 01:00:54.317
that's, you know, I I recognize this.

01:00:54.400 --> 01:00:56.797
What are you using?" And so, I left
the Hacker News comments. I was like, "Oh,

01:00:56.880 --> 01:00:59.117
you're using my my open source package."

01:00:59.200 --> 01:01:02.077
And so, they reached out to me. They uh
they're like, "Hey, would like to hire

01:01:02.160 --> 01:01:04.877
you." I was like, "I'm not interested.
I I want to start a startup. I want to

01:01:04.960 --> 01:01:09.197
start this thing called Replet." and and
they're like, "Well, no, you know, you

01:01:09.280 --> 01:01:12.717
should come work with us. We can we can
do the same stuff." And I kept saying,

01:01:12.800 --> 01:01:16.157
"No." I was like, "Okay, I'll contract
with you." They were paying me $12 an

01:01:16.240 --> 01:01:17.517
hour. I was really excited about it.

01:01:17.600 --> 01:01:21.357
Back from Oman. >> Um,
but they came out to their to their

01:01:21.440 --> 01:01:24.397
credit. They came out of Jordan
to recruit me and spend a few a few days

01:01:24.480 --> 01:01:28.157
there. And then I, you know, I kept
saying no. And in the end, they gave me

01:01:28.240 --> 01:01:33.037
an offer I can't refuse. Um, and they got
me an O1 visa. Came to the United States.

01:01:33.120 --> 01:01:37.037
>> That's when you moved. So when when was
the first cuz you were born what year to

01:01:37.120 --> 01:01:39.357
>> 1987 >> 87.
What was the first year that you

01:01:39.440 --> 01:01:41.917
could remember where you had the idea
that you might not live your life in

01:01:42.000 --> 01:01:44.317
Jordan and that you might you
might actually move to the US?

01:01:44.400 --> 01:01:46.557
>> Uh when I watched
Pirates of Silicon Valley.

01:01:46.640 --> 01:01:47.837
>> Is that right? Okay. Got it. All right.

01:01:47.920 --> 01:01:52.157
>> Uh maybe 98 or 99.
I don't know when it came out.

01:01:52.240 --> 01:01:53.917
>> Okay. That might be
a good place to >> Yeah.

01:01:54.000 --> 01:01:56.397
>> Is it worth telling the hacker story
because there's a version of the world

01:01:56.480 --> 01:01:59.677
where you didn't actually like if that
changed maybe you wouldn't have gone to

01:01:59.760 --> 01:02:03.197
America. >> Right. Right.
Yeah. So uh in in school I

01:02:03.280 --> 01:02:06.717
was programming the whole time you so I
I just want to start businesses. I just

01:02:06.800 --> 01:02:09.997
like I'm exploding with ideas all the
time. And like the reason Replet exists

01:02:10.080 --> 01:02:13.357
is because I have ideas all the time.
I just want to go type on the computer and

01:02:13.440 --> 01:02:17.117
like build them. Um so I wasn't going
to school. It was like incredibly boring

01:02:17.200 --> 01:02:21.117
for me. Uh and part of the reason why
Replet has a mobile app today is because

01:02:21.200 --> 01:02:25.037
I always wanted to program
under the desk just to do things.

01:02:25.120 --> 01:02:27.917
>> Um and so the at school they kept

01:02:28.000 --> 01:02:30.557
failing me uh for attendance. you know,

01:02:30.640 --> 01:02:35.037
so I would get A's, but I just didn't
show up and so they they would fail me.

01:02:35.120 --> 01:02:37.517
And so I felt it was incredibly unfair.

01:02:37.600 --> 01:02:39.517
And all my friends were graduating now.

01:02:39.600 --> 01:02:43.997
This year was like 2011. I've been like
for 6 years in college. It should be

01:02:44.080 --> 01:02:45.917
like a three or four year. And I was

01:02:46.000 --> 01:02:47.517
like incredibly depressed. I really

01:02:47.600 --> 01:02:51.037
wanted to be in Silicon Valley. And so I

01:02:51.120 --> 01:02:54.877
was like, "Oh, what if
I changed my grades?"

01:02:54.960 --> 01:02:55.917
>> There we go.

01:02:56.000 --> 01:02:59.517
>> The university database. And um and and

01:02:59.600 --> 01:03:05.277
so I went into my parents uh uh basement

01:03:05.360 --> 01:03:10.797
uh and uh implemented uh the polyphasic
sleep. Are you familiar with that?

01:03:10.880 --> 01:03:14.477
>> I I I I am >> uh Leonardo
da Vinci's uh polyphysic

01:03:14.560 --> 01:03:18.077
sleep. I didn't hear from Ronaldo da
Vinci. I heard it from Seinfeld cuz uh

01:03:18.160 --> 01:03:20.957
there's an episode where
John Kamemer goes on on

01:03:21.040 --> 01:03:25.917
>> poly sleep what 20 minutes every four
hours. 20 minutes every 24 hours. And

01:03:26.000 --> 01:03:27.997
yes, and this this somehow
is going to work well. And it

01:03:28.080 --> 01:03:30.477
>> Yeah. And and hacking,
if you've ever done anything,

01:03:30.560 --> 01:03:33.277
>> as the meme goes, this this has never
worked for anybody else, but it might

01:03:33.360 --> 01:03:36.397
but it might work for me. >> Yes.

01:03:36.480 --> 01:03:40.557
>> And a lot of what hacking is is that
you're you're coming up with ideas for

01:03:40.640 --> 01:03:43.597
like finding certain security holes
and like writing a script and then running

01:03:43.680 --> 01:03:46.877
that script and that script will take
like a 20 30 minutes to run and so

01:03:46.960 --> 01:03:50.317
you'll take that, you know, 20 30
minutes to sleep and go on. So I spent

01:03:50.400 --> 01:03:52.077
two weeks just going mad like trying to

01:03:52.160 --> 01:03:54.877
hack into the university database and uh

01:03:54.960 --> 01:03:58.477
finally I found um a way I found a SQL

01:03:58.560 --> 01:04:02.557
injection somewhere on the site uh and I
found a way to like be able to edit the

01:04:02.640 --> 01:04:06.797
the records but I didn't want to risk it.
So I went to my neighbor who's going

01:04:06.880 --> 01:04:10.637
to the same school. Uh I think till this
day no one caught him. But I went to him

01:04:10.720 --> 01:04:15.357
and I said um hey uh I have this way
to change grades like would you want to be

01:04:15.440 --> 01:04:18.397
my guinea pig? And I was honest about it.
I was like I'm not going to do it.

01:04:18.480 --> 01:04:22.077
are you open to doing? He's like,
"Yeah, yeah, yeah." They call

01:04:22.160 --> 01:04:24.637
his human trials.

01:04:24.720 --> 01:04:27.677
This is how medicine works.

01:04:27.760 --> 01:04:32.397
So, so we we went and and and uh we went
and changed his grades and he he went

01:04:32.480 --> 01:04:36.957
and pulled his transcript and the you
know, the update wasn't wasn't there and

01:04:37.040 --> 01:04:41.517
went back to the basement. Well, turned
out that I had access to the uh slave

01:04:41.600 --> 01:04:43.997
database. I didn't have
access to ambassador database.

01:04:44.080 --> 01:04:48.397
>> So, find a way through the network
privilege escalation. It was an Oracle

01:04:48.480 --> 01:04:52.317
database that had a vulnerability and
then found the real database and then I

01:04:52.400 --> 01:04:54.877
just, you know, did it for myself. Uh,

01:04:54.960 --> 01:04:58.557
changed the grades and went and pulled

01:04:58.640 --> 01:05:00.797
my scrcripts and sure enough it actually

01:05:00.880 --> 01:05:04.077
changed. Went and bought the the the

01:05:04.160 --> 01:05:07.197
gown, went to the graduation parties,

01:05:07.280 --> 01:05:10.637
uh, did all that. We're graduating. Um,

01:05:10.720 --> 01:05:13.357
and then one day I'm at home. It's like

01:05:13.440 --> 01:05:15.757
maybe 6:00 or 7:00 p.m. I get a you know

01:05:15.840 --> 01:05:19.677
the the telephone at home rings

01:05:19.760 --> 01:05:23.357
ominous ominous ring >> Santa

01:05:23.440 --> 01:05:27.357
um hello and he's like hey this is the
university registration system and I

01:05:27.440 --> 01:05:31.277
knew the guy that run it. Uh he's like
look you know we we we're having this

01:05:31.360 --> 01:05:36.157
problem. The system's been down all day
and it keeps coming back to your record.

01:05:36.240 --> 01:05:38.157
there's an anomaly in your record where

01:05:38.240 --> 01:05:40.237
you're both pass you have a passing

01:05:40.320 --> 01:05:43.277
grade but you're also banned from that

01:05:43.360 --> 01:05:47.837
uh final exam of subject I was like
oh well turns out the database is not

01:05:47.920 --> 01:05:50.157
normalized so typically that when they

01:05:50.240 --> 01:05:54.877
ban you from an exam the the grades
resets to 35 out of 100 but apparently

01:05:54.960 --> 01:05:57.997
there's a boolean flag and by the way
all the column names in the database are

01:05:58.080 --> 01:06:02.797
single single letters that was the hardest
thing is security by obscurity >> right

01:06:02.880 --> 01:06:04.317
>> and turns out there's a flag that I

01:06:04.400 --> 01:06:06.237
didn't track so when when when when you

01:06:06.320 --> 01:06:09.917
go over attendance um uh when you don't

01:06:10.000 --> 01:06:13.677
attend and they they they want to fail
you, they they ban you from the final

01:06:13.760 --> 01:06:18.557
exam. So, I changed the grades
and that that that created uh an issue and

01:06:18.640 --> 01:06:22.877
brought down the system. So, they were
calling me and I thought at the time I

01:06:22.960 --> 01:06:25.037
was like, you know, I could I could

01:06:25.120 --> 01:06:27.197
potentially lie and I'll it'll be a huge

01:06:27.280 --> 01:06:30.717
issue or I just like I'll just I'll just

01:06:30.800 --> 01:06:34.637
fess up. Yeah. So, I said, hey, listen,
look, um yeah, I might know something

01:06:34.720 --> 01:06:38.957
about it. Hey, let me let me come uh
tomorrow and kind of talk to you about

01:06:39.040 --> 01:06:43.037
what happened. So, I go in and I open
the door and it's the deans of all the

01:06:43.120 --> 01:06:46.317
all the schools. It's a computer science
computer. They were all working on it

01:06:46.400 --> 01:06:50.717
for like days because it's like it's
like it's a very computerheavy, you

01:06:50.800 --> 01:06:53.197
know, university and it was like a problem

01:06:53.280 --> 01:06:55.517
>> and they're all
kind of really intrigued

01:06:55.600 --> 01:06:59.597
about what happened. And so I pull up
a whiteboard and started explaining what I

01:06:59.680 --> 01:07:03.517
did and and everyone was engaged. I gave
them a lecture basically. your oral exam

01:07:03.600 --> 01:07:07.197
for your PhD. This is great.
>> They were they were they were really

01:07:07.280 --> 01:07:11.277
excited and uh and I think I it was
endearing to them. I was like, "Oh, wow.

01:07:11.360 --> 01:07:13.597
This is a this is a very
interesting problem."

01:07:13.680 --> 01:07:15.997
>> Um and then I was like, "Okay, great.

01:07:16.080 --> 01:07:19.117
Thank you." And I was like, "Hey, wait,

01:07:19.200 --> 01:07:20.957
>> wait. We don't know
what to do with you.

01:07:21.040 --> 01:07:24.397
Do we send you to jail? Do we

01:07:24.480 --> 01:07:28.317
>> And uh I was like, "Hey, we have
to escalate to the university um uh

01:07:28.400 --> 01:07:30.717
president." and and he he was a great

01:07:30.800 --> 01:07:35.757
man and I think uh he gave me a second
chance in life and I went to him and I

01:07:35.840 --> 01:07:39.117
uh you know I I explained the situation
I said like I'm really frustrated. I

01:07:39.200 --> 01:07:42.797
need to graduate. I need to get on with
my life. I've been here for six years

01:07:42.880 --> 01:07:45.837
and I just can't sit in in in school the

01:07:45.920 --> 01:07:50.157
stuff I already know. I'm a really
good programmer. Uh and and he gave me a

01:07:50.240 --> 01:07:52.957
Spider-Man line at the time.
was like with great power comes great

01:07:53.040 --> 01:07:55.357
responsibility and you have a great
power and you know and it really

01:07:55.440 --> 01:08:00.637
affected me and I think he he was right
at the moment and and so he said well

01:08:00.720 --> 01:08:03.597
we're going to let you go but you're
going to have to help the system

01:08:03.680 --> 01:08:07.997
administrators secure the system >> uh
for the summer I was like happy to do

01:08:08.080 --> 01:08:12.477
it and I show up and all the programmers
there hate me hate my gut%

01:08:12.560 --> 01:08:15.917
>> and uh they they would lock me out like
I would see them they would be outside I

01:08:16.000 --> 01:08:18.397
would knock on the door and nobody would
listen it's like they don't want to let

01:08:18.480 --> 01:08:20.477
me in I try to help them a little bit

01:08:20.560 --> 01:08:25.677
they theyen't and collaborative and so
I was like all right whatever. Uh and so

01:08:25.760 --> 01:08:27.117
it came time for me to actually

01:08:27.200 --> 01:08:30.397
graduate. It was the final project and

01:08:30.480 --> 01:08:34.237
one of the computer science dean came
to me and he said look I I need to call a

01:08:34.320 --> 01:08:38.237
favor. I was a big part of the reason we
kind of let you go and we didn't kind of

01:08:38.320 --> 01:08:43.357
prosecute you. Uh so I want you to work
with me on the um on the final project

01:08:43.440 --> 01:08:47.037
and it's going to be around security and
hacking. I was like no I'm I'm done with

01:08:47.120 --> 01:08:50.317
that like I just want to I just want
to build programming environments

01:08:50.400 --> 01:08:54.317
and things like that. Uh and he's like
no you have to do it. I was like okay.

01:08:54.400 --> 01:08:57.117
So I I thought I' do something more
productive. So I wrote a security

01:08:57.200 --> 01:09:00.957
scanner uh that was very proud of that
that kind of crawls the different side

01:09:01.040 --> 01:09:05.277
that tries to do SQL injection and all
sorts of things. Um and actually my

01:09:05.360 --> 01:09:07.677
security scanner found another
vulnerability in the system.

01:09:07.760 --> 01:09:10.157
>> Amazing. >> And so I
went to the defense and he's

01:09:10.240 --> 01:09:14.157
like you need to run this security
scanner live and show that there's a

01:09:14.240 --> 01:09:17.037
vulnerability. And I didn't understand
what was going on at the time, but I

01:09:17.120 --> 01:09:21.757
just okay. So I gave the presentation
about how the system works and I was

01:09:21.840 --> 01:09:24.557
like, oh, let's run it. And it showed
that there's security vulnerability.

01:09:24.640 --> 01:09:28.077
Okay, let's get let's try to get a shell.
So the system automatically runs

01:09:28.160 --> 01:09:29.997
all the security stuff and it gets you

01:09:30.080 --> 01:09:33.197
gets you a shell. And then the other

01:09:33.280 --> 01:09:38.157
dean that turned out he was giving the
mandate to secure the system. And now I

01:09:38.240 --> 01:09:40.157
started to realize I'm a pawn in some

01:09:40.240 --> 01:09:44.557
kind of rivalry here. and and his his

01:09:44.640 --> 01:09:48.237
face turned red and he's like, "No,
it's impossible. You know, we secured the

01:09:48.320 --> 01:09:53.277
system. You're lying." I was like, "You
know, you're accusing me of lying." All

01:09:53.360 --> 01:09:57.997
right. What should we know? Should
we know your um uh your salary or your

01:09:58.080 --> 01:10:01.037
password? What do you want me to look up?
And I was like, "Yeah, I look up my

01:10:01.120 --> 01:10:04.957
password." So, I I look up his his
password. Uh and it was like gibberish.

01:10:05.040 --> 01:10:07.357
It was encrypted. And I was like, "Oh,
that's not my password. See, you're

01:10:07.440 --> 01:10:10.557
lying." I was like, "Well, there's
a decrypt function that the programmers

01:10:10.640 --> 01:10:15.117
put in there." So I I do decrypt and it
shows his password. It was something

01:10:15.200 --> 01:10:19.997
embarrassing. I forgot I forgot what
it was. And so he gets up really angry,

01:10:20.080 --> 01:10:24.477
shakes my hand and leaves to change
his password. Uh so that I I was able to

01:10:24.560 --> 01:10:26.557
hack into the university another time.

01:10:26.640 --> 01:10:29.997
Luckily I I was able to graduate,
gave them the software, they secured the

01:10:30.080 --> 01:10:33.357
system. But um but yeah, later on I

01:10:33.440 --> 01:10:37.037
would realize that yeah, he wanted to
embarrass the other guy, which was why I

01:10:37.120 --> 01:10:39.357
was in the middle. >> Politics.
Well, I think the the moral

01:10:39.440 --> 01:10:42.157
the moral of the story is if if you
can successfully hack into your school

01:10:42.240 --> 01:10:45.277
system and change your grade, you deserve
the grade and you deserve to graduate.

01:10:45.360 --> 01:10:47.677
>> I I think so. >> And and
and just for any for any parents

01:10:47.760 --> 01:10:50.477
out there just children out there,
you can just you can see you can site you

01:10:50.560 --> 01:10:53.917
can sight site me as the moral you can
site you can set out to me as the moral

01:10:54.000 --> 01:10:55.597
moral authority moral authority on this.

01:10:55.680 --> 01:10:58.477
One maybe lesson I think that is very

01:10:58.560 --> 01:11:02.717
relevant for the AI age. Uh I think that

01:11:02.800 --> 01:11:04.957
the traditional sort of more conformous

01:11:05.040 --> 01:11:08.477
path is paying less and less dividends

01:11:08.560 --> 01:11:10.717
and I think uh you know kids coming up

01:11:10.800 --> 01:11:13.117
today should use all the tools available

01:11:13.200 --> 01:11:15.837
to be able to discover and chart their

01:11:15.920 --> 01:11:18.557
own paths cuz I feel like just you know

01:11:18.640 --> 01:11:21.357
listening to the traditional advice and

01:11:21.440 --> 01:11:23.517
doing the same things that people have

01:11:23.600 --> 01:11:29.117
always done is just not as it's not
working out as much as as we'd like.

01:11:29.200 --> 01:11:33.800
>> Thanks for coming on the podcast.
Thank you, man. Fantastic.

01:11:41.280 --> 01:11:44.280
Wow.

01:11:45.040 --> 01:11:48.600
Wow. Wow.
