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We're dealing with magic here that we
I think probably all would have thought

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was impossible 5 years ago or certainly
10 years ago. This is the most amazing

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technology ever and it's moving really
fast and yet we're still like really

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disappointed. Like it's not moving fast
enough and like it's like maybe right on

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the verge of stalling out. We should
both be like hyper excited but also on

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the verge of like slitting our wrists
cuz like you know the gravy train is

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coming to an end, >> right?
>> It is faster but it's not at computer

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speed, right? What we expect computer
speed to be. It's sort of like watching

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a person work.

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>> It's like watching John Carmarmac

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>> the world. Okay.
the world's the world's

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best programmer on a stimulus.

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>> On a stimulant. Yeah, that's right.

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>> So, let's start with um let's assume
that I'm a sort of a novice programmer.

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So, maybe I'm a student um uh or maybe
I'm just somebody, you know, I took a

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few coding classes and I've hacked
around a little bit or like I don't

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know, I do Excel macros or something
like that, but I'm like not less. I'm

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not like a master craftsman at coding.

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Um and you know people somebody tells me
about replet and and specifically AI um

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AI and Replet like what's my what's my
experience uh when when I launch in with

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with what replet is today with AI.

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>> Yeah I I would um I I think
the experience of someone with no coding

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experience or some coding experience
is largely the same when you go into

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replet. Okay. >> The first
thing we try to do is get all

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the nonsense away from like setting up
development environment and all of that

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stuff and just have you focus on your
idea. So what do you want to build? Do

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you want to build a product? Do you want
to solve a problem? Do you want to do a

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data vis visualization? So the prompt
box is really open for you. You can put

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in anything there. So let's say you want
to, you know, build a startup. You have

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an idea for a startup. I would I would

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start with like a paragraph long kind of

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description of what I want to build.
Uh the agents will read that. It will

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>> you just type just type >>
standard English. Standard English. You

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just type it in. I want to build a I
want to sell I want to sell crepes. I

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want to sell crepes online.
So you just like type in I want to talk.

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>> You can it literally could be
that four words or five words. Okay.

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>> Or it could be if you're if you have
a programming language you prefer or stack

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you prefer, you could do that. But we
actually prefer not for you not to do

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that because we're going to pick
the best thing for we're going to classify

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the best stack for that request. Right?

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>> It's a if it's a data app, we'll pick
Python and stream whatever. If it's like

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a web app, we'll pick JavaScript
and Postgress and things like that. So you

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just type that >> or you can
decide you can decide you can

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say and I want to do it I know Python or
I'm learning Python in school and I want

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to do it in Python.
>> That's right. The cool thing about

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Replet is you know we we've been around
for almost 10 years now and we built all

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this infrastructure. Replet runs any
programming language. So if you're

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comfortable with Python you
can go in and do that for sure.

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>> Okay. >> And then
just again I know this is

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obvious people have used it
but like I'm dealing in English.

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>> Yes. >> So okay go ahead. >> Yes.
You're fully in English. I mean,

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you know, just a, you know, a little bit

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of of sort of background here, like when

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um when I I came here and pitched to you
like 10 years ago or like whatever 7

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years ago, >> right?
>> Uh what we were saying is we were

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exactly describing this future
is that >> uh everyone would want to build

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software, right?
>> And the thing that's kind of getting in

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in people's ways is all the uh what Fred
Brooks called the accidental complexity

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of programming, right? They're like
essential complexity which is like how

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do I bring my startup to market and how

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do I build a business and all of that
accidental complexity is what package

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manager do I use all of that stuff we've

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been abstracting away that for so many

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years so you can just um and the last
thing we had to abstract away is code

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>> right >> I had this
realization last year which

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is I think we you know built an amazing
platform but the business is not

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performing and the reason the business
is not performing is that code is the

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bottleneck like yes all the other stuff

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is important to solve but syntax
is still an issue like you know syntax is

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just an unnatural thing for people so
ultimately English is the programming

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language >> right >> I I just
does it work with other other

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world languages other
than English at this point

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>> yes you can write in Japanese and we
have a lot of users especially Japanese

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that tends to be very >> so does
it support these days like for a

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does a support every language or is it
still do you still have to do like

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custom work to craft a new new language
>> no most most you know uh mainstream

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dream language that has like 100 million
plus people that speak it. AI is pretty

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good at it. >> Okay. Yeah. >> Yeah. Wow.

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>> So, uh I I I did a bit of a bit
of historical research recently for for

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some reason. I just want to just
understand the moment we're in and

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because it's such a special moment. It's

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I think it's important to contextualize

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it and I I I read this quote from

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Gracehopper. So, Gracehopper invented

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the compiler as you know. uh at the time

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people were uh you know programming in
machine code and that's what programmers

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do that's what the specialists do >> yes
>> and she said you know specialists will

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always be a specialist they have
to learn the underlying machinery of

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computers but I want to get to a world
where people are programming English

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that's what she said that's before
karpathy right that's like you know 75

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years ago >> uh and and and
that's why I invented the

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compiler and in her mind like C
programming is English >> right

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>> uh But that, you know, that really
didn't uh that was just the start of it.

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You had C and then you go higher level
Python and JavaScript. And I think it

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we're at a moment where
it's the next step, >> right?

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>> Instead of typing syntax, you're
actually typing thoughts, you know,

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which is what we ultimately want.

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>> And the machine writes the code
>> and the machine writes the code,

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>> right? Right. >> Um yeah,
I remember it. you're you're

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probably not old enough uh to remember
but I I remember when when I was a kid

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it was um you know there there were were
higher level languages you know by the

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70s like like basic
and so forth and forran

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>> and C and C but um uh there were still
you know you still would run into people

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who were doing assembly programming
assembly language which by the way you

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still do you know like game companies
or whatever still do assembly to to to get

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>> and they were hating on the kids
that were doing basic. Oh well so so the

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assembly people were hating the kids
doing basic but there were also older

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coders who hated on the assembly
programmers for doing assembly and not

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and not and not no no no not doing
direct machine code right not doing

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direct zero in one machine code because
because as because assembly assembly so

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people don't know assembly language
is sort of this very low-level programming

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language that sort of compiles to actual
actual machine code and if and if it's

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it's it's incomprehensible gibberish
to most program even most programmers

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>> you're writing an octal or something
>> you're writing like very very close to

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the hardware but even still it's still
a language that compiles to zeros and ones

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>> um whereas the actual real programmers
actually wrote in zeros and ones. And so

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there there's always there's always this
tendency, you know, for the for the for

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the pros to be, you know,
look on the nose.

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>> Yeah. >> And say,
you know, the new people are

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being are being, you know, basically
sloppy. They don't understand what's

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happening. You know, they don't really
understand the machine. And then, of

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course, you know, with with the higher
level with the higher level abstractions

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do is they make they democratize.
The absolute irony is I was part of the

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JavaScript revolution. I was at Facebook
uh before starting repled and we built

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the modern JavaScript stack. We built
ReactJS and all the tooling around it

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>> and we got a lot of hate from from
the programmers that you should type you

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know vanilla JavaScript directly and >>
um I was like okay whatever and then

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that you and now that's mainstream and
then those guys that built their careers

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on the last wave we invented are hating
on this new wave and so just you know

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people never change. Okay, got it. Okay,
so you you're typing English I want to

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sell crepes online. I want to do this.
I want to have a t-shirt. Whatever the

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business is. Okay. What what happens then?

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>> Yeah. and then uh uh replet agent will

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show you what it understood.
So it's trying to build um a common

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understanding between you and it and I
think there's a lot of things we can do

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better there in terms of UI but for
now it'll show you a list of tasks.

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>> It'll tell you I'm going to go set up
a database because you need to store your

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data somewhere. Uh we need to set up
Shopify or Stripe because we need to

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accept payments. Uh and then it shows
you this list and gives you two options

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initially. Do you want to start with a
design so that we can iterate back and

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forth to get lock that design down
or do you want to build a full thing?

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>> Hey, if you want to build a full thing,
we'll go for 20, 30, 40 minutes.

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>> Uh, and the a and be like the agent
will tell you go here, install the app.

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>> Uh, I'm going to go
set up the database,

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do the migrations, write the SQL, you
know, build the site. I'm going to also

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test it. So this is a recent innovation

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we did with um agent 3 is that after it

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writes the software spins up a browser

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goes around and tests in the browser and
then any issue it kind of iterates kind

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of goes and fix the code. So it'll spend
20 30 minutes building that I'll send

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you a notification it'll tell you the app
is ready. And so you can test it on

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your phone. You can go back to your
computer. You'll see maybe you'll find a

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bug or an issue, you'll describe it
to the agent, say, "Hey, it's not exactly

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doing what I expected." Uh or if it's
perfect and and you're ready to go and

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that's it. You know, 20 minutes. By
the way, there's a lot of examples where

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people just get their idea in 20 30
minutes, which is amazing. Um you just

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hit publish. >> Mhm.

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>> You hit you hit publish. Um

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couple clicks, you'll be up in the

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cloud. we'll set up a a virtual machine
in the cloud. The database is deployed.

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Everything's done and now you
have a production database.

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>> So, think about the steps needed just
two or 3 years ago in order to get to

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that step. You have to set up your local
development environment. You have to

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sign up for an AWS account. You have
to provision the databases, the virtual

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machines, you have to create the entire
pip deployment pipeline. All of that is

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done for you. And it just, you know, a

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kid can do it, a lay person can do it.

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If you're a programmer and uh you're
curious about what the agent did, the

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cool thing about replet because we have
this history of being an IDE, you can

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peel the layers. You can open the file
tree and you could look at the files.

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You can open gits, you can push it
to GitHub, you can connect it to your

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editor if you want, you can open it
in Emacs. So the cool thing about Replet,

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yes, it is a vibe coding platform that
abstracts away all the complexities, but

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all the layers are
there for you to look at.

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>> Right. So let's go let's go back to um
that was great, but let's go back to you

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said it. It it gives you that the a the
agent gives you you you say I've got my

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idea. You plug it in and it says it
gives you this list of things and then

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you and then when you describe it you
said I'm going to do this. I'm going to

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do that. The eye there in that case
was the agent as opposed to the user. Yes.

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>> And so the the agent lists the set
of things that it's going to do and then

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the agent actually does those things.

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>> Agent does those things. Yeah.
That that's a that's a that's a very

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important point. when we did this shift,

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we hadn't realized internally at Replet
how much the actual user stopped being

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the human user and it's actually
the agent programmer, >> right?

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>> So, one really uh funny thing happened

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is we had servers in Asia uh and we the
reason we had servers in Asia because we

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wanted our Indian or you know Japanese

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users to be to have a you know shorter

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uh time to the servers. uh when we

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launched the agent their experience got
significantly worse and we're like what

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happened like it's supposed to be faster
well turns out it's worse it's because

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the AIS are sitting in uh in United
States and so the the programmer is

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actually in United States it's you're
sending the request to the programmer

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00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:45,277
and the programmer is interfacing
with a machine across the world and so yes

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suddenly the agent is the programmer
okay so like the the ter ter you know

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00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,917
new terminology agent is a software
program that is basically using the rest

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of the as if it were
a as if it were a human

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user, but it's not. It's a it's a bot.

200
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>> That's right. It has access to tools

201
00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,357
such as write a file, edit a file,

202
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,877
delete a file, uh uh search the package

203
00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:11,677
index, install a package, uh provision
a database, provision object object

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00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,437
storage. It is a programmer that has the
tools and interface. It has a sort of an

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00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,317
interface >> that that
is very similar to a human

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00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,317
programmer. And then um you know we'll
talk more about how this all works but a

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debate inside the AI industry um is
with these was kind of this you know this

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idea now of having agents that do things
on your behalf and then go out you know

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go go out and kind of accomplish missions.
Um there's this you know kind

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00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,237
of debate which is okay how like
obviously you know it's a big deal even

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to have an AI agent that can do
relatively simple things to do complex

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things of course is you know one of the
great technical challenges of the last

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80 years you know to to do that and then
there's sort of this question of like

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can the agent go out and run and operate
on its own for 5 minutes you know for

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for 15 minutes for an hour for 8 hours
and and meaning like sort of like how

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long does it maintain coherence like how
long does it actually like stay in full

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control of it of its faculties and not
kind of spin out because at least the

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early early agents or the the early AIS,
if if you set them off to do this, they

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might be able to run for two or three
minutes, then they would they would

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start to get confused and go down rabbit
holes and, you know, kind of kind of

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spin out. Um, more recently, more
recently, um, uh, you know, we've seen

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that that that that agents can run a lot
longer and and do more complex tasks.

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Like, where are we on the curve
of agents being able to run for how long

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and for what complexity tasks
before before they break?

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>> That's that's
absolutely the the I think

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the main metric we're looking at. even
back in 2023, you know, had the idea for

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software agents, you know, four or five
years ago now. The problem every time we

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attempt them, the the problem
of coherence, you know, they'll they'll go

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on for a minute or two and then they'll
just, you know, they compound in errors

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in a way that they just can't recover.

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>> Um, >> and you can
actually see it, right?

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Because they actually they actually,
if you watch watch them operate, they get

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increasingly confused and then,
you know, maybe even deranged. Yeah, they

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vary the range and they they go into
very weird areas and sometimes they

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start speaking Chinese and doing really

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weird things and um but I would say

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sometime around last year we maybe

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crossed the 3 four five minute mark

239
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>> and it felt to us that okay we're on a

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path where long re you know long horizon

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reasoning is getting solved >> uh
and so we made we made a bet and I I

242
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tell my team >> so long
horizon reasoning meaning

243
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reasoning meaning like
dealing in like facts and logic

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>> um in a in a sort of complex way
and then long horizon being over a long

245
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period of time. Yes. >> With many
many steps to a reasoning process.

246
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>> Yeah, that's right. So if you think
about the way large language models work

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is that they have a context. This context
is basically the memory all the

248
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text all your prompt and also all
the internal talk that the AI is doing as

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it's reasoning. So when the AI
is reasoning it's actually talking to

250
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itself. It's like oh now I need to go
set up a database. Well, what what kind

251
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of tool do I have? Oh, there's a tool
here that says Postgress. Okay, let me

252
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try using that. Okay, I use that. I got
feedback. Let me look at the feedback

253
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and read it. And it'll read the

254
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feedback. And so the that that prompt

255
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box or context is where both the user

256
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input, the environment input, and the
internal thoughts of the machine are all

257
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within. It's sort of like a program
memory in in memory space. And so

258
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reasoning over that was the challenge

259
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for a long time. That's when AIs just

260
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like went off track and now they're able

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to kind of think through this entire

262
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thing and and maintain coherence. And

263
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there's there's now techniques around uh

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compression of contacts. So there still

265
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context length is still a problem,
right? So I would say LM today, you

266
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know, they're marketed as a million uh

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token uh length, which is like a million

268
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words almost. uh in reality it's about

269
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200,000 and then they start to struggle.

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So we do a lot of uh you know we stop we

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compress the memory. So if a memory
if if a portion of the memory is saying

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that I'm getting all the logs from
the database you can summarize you know

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paragraphs of logs with one statement
or the database setup that's it right and

274
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so every once in a while we'll compress
the context so that we make sure we

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maintain coherence so that there's a lot
of innovation happened outside of the

276
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foundation models as well in order to
to enable that long context coherence. So

277
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what was the what was the key technical
breakthrough at the in the foundation

278
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models that made this
possible do you think?

279
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>> I think it's RL I think it's uh

280
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reinforcement learning. So the way

281
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pre-training works is you know uh they

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uh pre-training is a uh the first step

283
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of training a large language model.
It reads a piece of text. It covers the

284
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last words and tries to guess it. That's

285
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how it's trained. That doesn't really

286
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imply long context reasoning. it it you

287
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know it it turns out to be very very

288
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effective. It can learn language that

289
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way. But the reason we weren't able to

290
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move past that limitation is that that

291
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modality of training just wasn't good

292
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enough. And what you want is you want a

293
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type of problem solving over a uh over

294
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long context. So what reinforcement

295
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learning uh uh especially from code

296
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execution gave us is the ability to for

297
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the machine to for the LLM to roll out

298
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what we call trajectories in AI. So

299
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trajectory is a uh stepbystep reasoning

300
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chain in order to reach a solution.
So uh the way uh as I understand

301
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reinforcement learning works is they put

302
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the LM in a programming environment like

303
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replet and say hey here's a pro here's a

304
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codebase here's a bug in the codebase

305
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and we want you to solve it. Um now
the human trainer already knows what the

306
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solution would look like. So we have
a pull request that we have on GitHub so

307
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we know exactly or we have a unit test
that we can run and verify the solution.

308
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,517
So what it does is it rolls out a lot
of different trajectories. Those they

309
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sample the model and maybe one of those

310
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trajectories will reach and a lot of

311
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them will just go go off off track but

312
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one of them will reach the solution
by solving the bug and it reinforces on

313
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that. So that that gets a reward and
the model gets trained that okay you know

314
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,557
this is how you solve these type
of problems. So that's how we're able to

315
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extend these reasoning chains.

316
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:15,917
>> Got it. and and how it's a two-part

317
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,557
question is how how how good how good

318
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are the models now at long long long
reasoning and and I would say and how do

319
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we know like how how is that

320
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established? Um

321
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there is a nonprofit called meter um

322
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that is uh measuring

323
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,837
uh useful has a benchmark to measure uh

324
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:43,037
how long a model runs while maintaining
coherence and doing useful useful things

325
00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:46,797
whether it's programming or other
benchmark tasks that they've done. uh

326
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,357
and they put up a paper I think uh late

327
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last year that said every seven months

328
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>> uh the the minutes that a model can run

329
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is doubling. >> So you go
from 2 minutes to you know 4

330
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,197
minutes in 7 months I think
they vastly underestimated that.

331
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:06,717
>> Is that right? Vastly it's doubling.

332
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,157
It's doubling more often than 7 months.

333
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,957
>> We so Asian 3 we measure that you know

334
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:16,157
very closely uh and we measure that in
real tasks from real users. So we're not

335
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,357
doing benchmarking. We're actually doing
AB tests and we're looking at the data

336
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that how users are successful or not.

337
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,477
>> For us,
the the absolute sign of success

338
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,157
is you made an app and you published it.

339
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Because when you publish it, you're
paying extra money. You're saying this

340
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,637
app is economically useful. I'm going
to publish it. So that's as clear-cut as

341
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:37,357
possible. And so what we're seeing
is in agent one, the agent could run for 2

342
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,317
minutes >> and then
and then perhaps struggle.

343
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:45,597
Agent two came out in February, it ran
for 20 minutes. Agent 3 200 minutes.

344
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,797
>> Okay, >> 200.
Some users are pushing it to like

345
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,797
12 hours and things like that. I'm less

346
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,437
confident that it is as good and when it

347
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,317
goes to these stratospheres, but at like

348
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,117
2 3 hours timeline, it is really it's

349
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,997
it's it's it's insanely good. And and

350
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:03,677
the main innovation outside of the

351
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,117
models is a verification loop. Actually,

352
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,997
uh I remember reading um a research

353
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paper from Nvidia. So what Nvidia did is

354
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,597
they're trying to uh write um GPU

355
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,877
kernels uh using deepseek and that was

356
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:23,597
like perhaps 7 months ago when deepseek
came out and what they found is that if

357
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,837
we add a verifier in the loop if we can
run the kernel and verify it's working

358
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,677
we're able to run deepseeek for like
20 minutes and it it was generating

359
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,077
actually optimized kernels

360
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,397
>> and so I was like okay the next thing

361
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,677
for us obviously as an as a sort of a

362
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,037
agent lab or like applay our company.

363
00:19:43,120 --> 00:19:46,157
We're not doing the foundation model
stuff, but we're doing a lot of research

364
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:50,397
on top of that. And so, okay, we know
that agents can run for 10 20 minutes

365
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,637
now or LLMs can stay coherent for

366
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,997
longer, but for you to push them to 200,

367
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300 minutes, you need a verifier in the

368
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loop. So, that's why we spend all our

369
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,757
time uh creating scaffolds to make it so

370
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that the agent can spin up a browser
and do computer use style testing. So once

371
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,397
you put that in the middle, what's

372
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,877
happening is it works for 20 minutes uh

373
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spin up another agent uh spins up a a

374
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,077
browser tests the work of the previous

375
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,157
agent. So it's a multi- aent system

376
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,557
>> and if it is uh if it founds a bug it

377
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:29,037
starts a new trajectory and says okay
good work let's summarize what you did

378
00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:32,717
the last 20 minutes >> now
that be that plus what the bug that

379
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,957
we found that's a prompt
for a new trajectory right

380
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,837
>> so you stack those on each
other and you can go endlessly but

381
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,037
>> so it's like a mar like setting
up a marathon or like a relay race

382
00:20:41,120 --> 00:20:43,837
>> as long as as long as each step is done
properly you could do in sort of an

383
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,077
infinite number of steps >> that's
right that's right you can always

384
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,197
compress the previous step into
a paragraph And that becomes a prompt. So

385
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,277
it's it's an agent
prompting the next agent.

386
00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:54,237
>> Right. Right. Right. That's amazing. So
um and then when when an agent like when

387
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,677
a modern agent like running on modern
modern LM that are trained this way when

388
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,117
it let's say it runs for 200 minutes
like when you watch the agent run is it

389
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,037
like running is it like processing
through like logic and tasks at the same

390
00:21:05,120 --> 00:21:07,197
pace that like a human being is or

391
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,797
slower or faster? I

392
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,637
>> it's actually I would say it is faster

393
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,957
but not that much significantly faster.

394
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,397
It's not at computer speed, right?
What we expect computer speed to be.

395
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,877
>> It's like watching a per like if
you watch if you if it's describing what

396
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,037
it's doing, it's sort of like
watching a person work.

397
00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:26,877
>> It's like watching
John Carmarmacine work.

398
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:31,277
>> The world Okay. The world's
the world's best programmer.

399
00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,597
>> Yeah. >> The world's best
programmer on a stim on a stimulant.

400
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,597
>> On a stimulant. Yeah, that's right.

401
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,037
>> Working for you. Working for you.

402
00:21:37,120 --> 00:21:41,277
>> Yeah. There. So, it's very fast
and you can see the uh file diffs running

403
00:21:41,360 --> 00:21:44,557
through, but every once in a while it'll
stop and it'll start thinking. I'll show

404
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,757
you the reasoning. Yeah. It's like,
I did this and I did this. Am I on the

405
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,317
right track? It kind of really
tries to reflect, right?

406
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,557
>> Uh and then it might review its work
and decide the next step or it might kick

407
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:59,677
into the testing agent or you know,
so so you're seeing it do all of that and

408
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,117
every once in a while it calls the tool
for example, it stops and says, well, we

409
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,597
ran into an issue. you know, Postgress

410
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:11,437
um 15 is not um compatible with this,

411
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,717
you know, database ORM
package that that I have.

412
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,837
>> Um okay, this is a problem I haven't
seen before. I'm going to go search the

413
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,997
web. So, it has a web search tool.
Go do that. And so, it looks like a human

414
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,477
programmer, right? >> And it's
really fascinating to watch.

415
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,237
It's one of my favorite things to do
is just to watch the tool chain and

416
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,477
reasoning chain and the testing chain.

417
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,477
And it's yeah it is like watching
a hyperproductive programmer

418
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,437
>> right so you know we're kind of getting
into here kind of the holy grail of AI

419
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,757
which is sort of you know generalized
reasoning um you know by the machine um

420
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:46,477
so uh you mentioned this a couple times
but this idea of a of a verification so

421
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,997
so just for folks on the listening
to podcast who maybe aren't in the details

422
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:53,357
let me try to describe this and see see
if I have it right so like a just a just

423
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,997
a large language model the way you would
exper you would have experienced with

424
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,357
like Chad GPT out of the gate two years
ago or whatever would have been it's

425
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,757
like And it's incredible how fluid uh
it is at language. Um it's incredible how

426
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,877
good it is at like writing Shakespearean
sonnetss or rap lyrics. It's it's

427
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,917
amazing how good it is at human
conversation. But if you start to ask it

428
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:14,157
like problems that involve like rational
thinking uh or problem solving all of a

429
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,677
sudden like you math or the math the whole
show and and in the very beginning

430
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,557
it was you could ask if you ask it very
basic math problems, you know, it would

431
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:21,757
it would not be able to do them.

432
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,397
>> That's right. Uh but then even when
it got better at those, if you started to

433
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,117
ask it to like, you know, it it could
maybe add two small numbers together,

434
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,837
but it couldn't add two large numbers
together. Or if it could add two large

435
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:31,197
numbers, it couldn't multiply them.

436
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:32,877
Yeah. >> And it's just
like, all right, this is

437
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,517
And then it had this there was this
famous the famous was the straw the

438
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,997
strawberry test, the famous strawberry
test, which is how many Rs are in the

439
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,037
word strawberry. >> That's right.

440
00:23:39,120 --> 00:23:41,837
>> And there was this long period where
it it kept it would it would just guess

441
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,797
wrong. It would say there were only two
Rs in the word strawberry. And it turns

442
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:49,757
out there are three. Um, so, um, so it
it was this thing and so people were and

443
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,637
there was even this term that was being
used kind of the the slur that was being

444
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,237
used at the time was stoastic parrot.

445
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:55,837
>> Yeah, >> I was thinking clanker.

446
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,997
>> Well, well, clanker is the is the new
slur. Clank clanker. Clanker is just the

447
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,477
full-on racial slur against AI as a

448
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:07,437
species. Um, but the technical critique
was so-called stoastic par stoastic

449
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,637
means random. Uh so sort of random
parrot me meaning basically that this

450
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,357
thing was sort of the large language
models were like a they were like a

451
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,997
mirage where they were like repeating
back to you things that they thought

452
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,597
that you wanted to hear but they didn't
>> in a way it's true in the in the pure

453
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,157
pre-training LLM world >> right
for the for the very basic layer

454
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,877
but then what happened is as you said
over the last year or something there

455
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,237
there was this layering in of of
reinforcement learning and then but the

456
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,157
key to >> it's not new crucially
it's like it's alpha go right so

457
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:33,597
>> describe so describe that for a second.

458
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,197
Yeah. So we we had this breakthrough

459
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:39,597
before in uh 2015 was the Alph Go

460
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,477
breakthrough. I think 2015 2016 where it

461
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:47,357
is emerging of sort of uh you know the
the the you would know a lot better than

462
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,997
me the old AI debate between the
connectionists uh the the people who who

463
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:53,757
thinks neuronet networks are the true

464
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,957
sort of way of doing AI and the symbolic

465
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:01,837
systems I think or like the people that
think that you know discrete reasonings

466
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,517
fates and knowledge bases whatever this
is the way to go and so there was there

467
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,677
was a merging of these two worlds where
the way AlphaG go worked is it had a

468
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:13,997
neural network but it had a Monte Carlo
research algorithm on top of that. So

469
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:18,317
the neural network would generate uh
would would like uh generate a list of

470
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,957
potential moves uh and then you had a

471
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,597
more discrete algorithm sort those moves

472
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,797
and find the best based on just uh tree

473
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,357
search based on just trying to verify

474
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,877
again this sort of a verifier in the

475
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,557
loop trying to verify which move might

476
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,077
yield the best based on more classical

477
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,877
way of doing algorithms. Um, and so that

478
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,437
that's a resurgence of of that movement

479
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,637
where we have this amazing generative uh

480
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:51,997
neural network that is the the LLM and now
let's layer on more discrete ways of

481
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,197
trying to verify whether it's doing the
right thing or not and let's put that in

482
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,117
a training loop and once you do that the

483
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:02,237
LLM will start gaining new capabilities
such as uh reasoning over math and code

484
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,317
and things like that. >> Exactly.
Right. Okay. And then that's

485
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,677
great. And then and then the the key
thing there though for for RL to work

486
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:12,717
for LMS to reason the key is that it
be a a problem statement that there is a

487
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,477
defined and verifiable answer. That's
right. Is that right? And so and and and

488
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,117
you might think about this as like
let's give a bunch of examples like in

489
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,637
medicine this might be like um you know
a diagnosis that like a panel of human

490
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,077
doctors agrees with um or or or by the
way or a diagnosis that actually you

491
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:31,037
know solves the condition. Um in law
this would be a um you know a a argument

492
00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:34,957
that in front of a jury actually results
in an acquitt or or something like that.

493
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,037
Um in u math it's an equation that
actually solves properly. Uh in physics

494
00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:41,277
it's a result that actually
works in the real world.

495
00:26:41,360 --> 00:26:44,077
>> I don't know in civil engineering it's
a bridge that doesn't collapse. Right. So

496
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:45,837
so so there there there's always some

497
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,117
some test is that the first two do not

498
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,597
work very well just yet. like the the

499
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,997
like I would say uh law and healthcare

500
00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:01,277
they're still a little too squishy
a little too soft it's unlike math or code

501
00:27:01,360 --> 00:27:04,397
like the way that they're training
on math they're using this uh sort of like

502
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,637
a program language uh provable language
called lean for proofs right so you can

503
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:13,357
run a lean statement you can run
a computer code uh perhaps you can run a

504
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,677
physics simulation or civil engineering
uh sort of physics simulation but you

505
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,437
can't run a diagnosis >>
okay So I would say the

506
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,757
>> but you could verify it
with human answers or or not.

507
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,557
>> Yeah. So that that's a more RL HF in a

508
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,277
way. So it is not the like sort of

509
00:27:29,360 --> 00:27:32,157
autonomous RL train like fully scalable

510
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,357
autonomous which is why coding is moving

511
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,357
faster than any other domain is because

512
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,877
we can we we can generate these problems

513
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,397
and verify them on the fly. But there's
two but with coding as anybody who's

514
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,717
coded knows there's coding there's
two tests which is one is does the code

515
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,717
compile >> right >> and then
the other is does it produce

516
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,437
the right output and just because it
compiles doesn't mean it produces the

517
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,237
right output and I you tell me
but verifying that it's the correct output

518
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:55,197
is harder

519
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:56,957
>> yeah sobbench

520
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:02,877
is a collection of uh verified pull

521
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,157
request end state uh so so it is it is

522
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,197
not just about compiling we so they they

523
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,437
group of scientists sobbench is the main

524
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,877
benchmark used to test whether AI is

525
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:16,877
good at software engineering tasks and

526
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,197
we're almost saturating that. So last

527
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:23,277
year we're at like maybe 5% early 24 or

528
00:28:23,360 --> 00:28:25,997
less and now we're like 82% or something

529
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,477
like that with cloth on at 4.5 that's
state-of-the-art and that's like a

530
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,557
really nice health climb that's
happening right now. uh and basically

531
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,557
they went and looked on GitHub.
They found the the you know most complex

532
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,197
repositories. They found bug statements

533
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,917
that are very clear uh and they found
ProQuest that actually solve those bug

534
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,757
statements with unit tests and everything.
So there is an existing

535
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:54,557
corpus on GitHub of tasks that that
the AIS can can solve and you can also

536
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,557
generate them. Those are not too hard to

537
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,317
to generate uh you know what's called

538
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,157
synthetic uh data. Uh uh but but you're

539
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:09,437
right it's not infinitely scalable um
because you you some human verifiers

540
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,557
still need to kind of look at the at
the task but maybe the foundation models

541
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,677
have found a way to have
the synthetic training go all the way

542
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:17,997
>> right and then what's happening I think
I think because what's happening is the

543
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,877
foundation model companies are in some
cases they are hire they're actually

544
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,517
hiring human experts to generate
new training data. Yes.

545
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,997
>> So they're actually hiring
mathematicians and physicists and coders

546
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,917
to basically sit and you know they're
they're hiring they're they're hiring

547
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:31,917
human programmers putting
them on the cocaine. Yes.

548
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:37,437
>> Um and having them probably coffee um
uh and having them actually write code and

549
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,997
then and then write code in a way
where there's a known result of the code

550
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,277
running such that the this RO loop can
be trained properly. That's right. And

551
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,077
then the other the other and then the
other thing these companies are doing is

552
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,677
as you said they're building systems
where the software itself generates the

553
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,277
training data, generates the tests,
generates the valid the validated

554
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,677
results and and that's soal
synthetic training data.

555
00:29:55,760 --> 00:30:00,317
>> That's right. And but yeah,
but but again those work in the very hard

556
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,677
domains. It works to some
extent in the software domains

557
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,397
>> and I think there's some transfer
learning we can you can see the

558
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,157
reasoning work when it comes to you know
tools like deep research and things like

559
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,557
that but we're not making as fast as

560
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,117
progress in the in the more soft domain.

561
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,437
>> So so say softer domains meaning like

562
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:22,157
domains in which it's harder harder
or even impossible to actually verify

563
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,317
correctness of of result in a sort
of a deterministic factual grounded

564
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,077
>> non-controversial way. Like if you have

565
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:29,917
a a chronic disease, you could you could

566
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:35,197
have you know you have a POTS or uh you

567
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,157
know whatever EDS syndrome or and

568
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,397
they're all they're all clusters
and it's because it it is the domain of

569
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,797
abstraction. It is not as concrete as code
and math and things like that. So I

570
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,397
think there's still
a long ways to go there.

571
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,677
>> Right. So sort of the more concrete the
problem like it's the concretness of the

572
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,477
problem that is the key variable not the
difficulty of the problem. Would that be

573
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,837
a way to think about it?
>> Yeah. Yeah. I think the the uh

574
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,237
concreteness in a sense of can you
get a true or false ver verifiable

575
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,277
>> right but like in any domain in any
domain of human effort in which there's

576
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,677
a verifiable answer we should
expect extremely rapid progress.

577
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:09,997
>> Yes. >> Right. >> Yes. Absolutely.
And I I think that's what we're saying.

578
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,477
>> Right. And that and that for sure
includes math. That for sure includes

579
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,837
physics for sure includes chemistry.
For sure includes >> large areas of code.

580
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,077
>> That's right. >> Right. What what
else does that include do you think?

581
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:22,237
>> Bio like we're seeing with a protein
>> genomic. Yeah. Okay. Right.

582
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:23,917
>> Yeah. Yeah. Things like that. I think

583
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:28,237
some some areas of robotics, right? Um

584
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,637
there's a clear outcome, right?

585
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,717
>> Uh but but it's not that many.
I mean, surprisingly, >> well, it depends.

586
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,157
>> Yeah, depends on your point of view.

587
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,917
That's some people might say that's a lot.
Um so, uh and then um you you

588
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,557
mentioned that we you mentioned the pace
of improvement. So, what would you

589
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,277
expect from the pace of improvement
going forward for this?

590
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,437
>> I I think we're
we're ripping on coding.

591
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,077
Like I think I think it's just it's

592
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,637
going like I think it's going to be like

593
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,277
what we're working on with with agent

594
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:59,837
floor right now um is by by next year we
think you're going to be sitting instead

595
00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:02,237
of rep in front of replet and you're

596
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,477
shooting off multiple agents at a time.

597
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,437
You're like planning a new feature. Um

598
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,157
so I I want you know social network on

599
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,637
top of my storefront and another one is

600
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,157
like hey um refactor the database. Hey,

601
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:17,997
in and you're running parallel agents.

602
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,797
So, you have five 10 agents kind
of working in the background and they're

603
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,037
merging the code and taking care of all
of that, but you also have a really nice

604
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,317
interface on top of that that you're
doing design and you're interacting with

605
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,637
AI in a more creative way. Uh maybe
using visuals and charts and things like

606
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,957
that. So, there's a multimodal angle of

607
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,597
that of that interaction. So I think you

608
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,237
know creating software is going to be

609
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,557
such an exciting

610
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,597
uh area and and and I think that the lay

611
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,957
person will be as good as a what a

612
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:50,477
senior software engineer that works at

613
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,637
Google uh is today. So I think I think

614
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,477
that's happening very soon. Um but but

615
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,877
you know I don't see them and be curious
about your point of view but like my

616
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,277
experience between as as a sort of a you

617
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,077
know on the let's say healthcare side or

618
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:10,797
more you know write me an essay side
or more creative side haven't seen as much

619
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,077
of a rapid improvement as what we're
seeing in code. So so I think I think

620
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:15,677
code is going to go to the moon. Math is

621
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,557
probably as well some some you know

622
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,877
scientific domains bio things like that
those are are going to move really fast.

623
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,077
>> Yeah. So there's this there's this
there's this weird dynamic see if you

624
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,957
agree with this and Eric also curious
your point of view on this like there's

625
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,357
this weird dynamic that we have and we
have this in the office here a lot and I

626
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,837
also have this with like the leading
of entrepreneurs a lot which is this thing

627
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,317
of like >> like wow
this is the most amazing

628
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,637
technology ever and it's moving really
fast and yet we're still like really

629
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:43,437
disappointed um and like it's not moving
fast enough and like it's like maybe

630
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,637
right on the verge of stalling out >>
and like you know we should both be like

631
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,517
hyper excited but also on the verge
of like slitting our wrists because like

632
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,517
you know the gravy train
is coming to an end,

633
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,757
>> right? And and I
always wonder it's like

634
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,557
you know on the one hand it's like
okay like you know not all I don't know

635
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,277
ladders go to the moon like just because
something you know looks like it works

636
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,517
or you know doesn't mean it's going
to you know be able to you're going to be

637
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,357
able to scale it up and have it work
you know to the fullest extent. Um uh you

638
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,397
know so like it's important to like
recognize practical limits and not just

639
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,677
extrapolate everything to infinity.
Um on the other hand like you know we're

640
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,237
dealing with magic here that we I think
probably all would have thought was

641
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,717
impossible 5 years ago
or certainly 10 years ago.

642
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,597
>> Like I I didn't you know look I I
you know I got my CS degree in the late '

643
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,637
80s early 90s. I I never I didn't think
I would live to see any of this, right?

644
00:34:22,720 --> 00:34:26,077
Like this is just amazing that this is
actually happening in in in my lifetime.

645
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,797
>> Um >> but but there's
a huge bet on AGI,

646
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,317
right? like whether it's the foundation
models uh I think you know now the

647
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,877
entire US economy is sort of a bet on

648
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,357
AGI and and there are crucial questions

649
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:42,317
to ask whether are we on track to AGI
or not because there are some ways that I

650
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,957
can tell you it doesn't seem like we're
on track to AGI because we uh because

651
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,557
there doesn't seem to be transfer
learning across these domains that are

652
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:55,677
that are you know significance right
so if we get a lot better at code

653
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,757
we're not immediately getting better at
like generalized reasoning we need to go

654
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:01,757
also you know get training data and

655
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,757
create RL environment for bio or

656
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,957
chemistry or physics or math or law or

657
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,677
so so and this this has been the sort of

658
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,277
point of discussion now in the AI

659
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,077
community after the Darkish and Richard

660
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,197
Sutton uh interview where uh you know

661
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,197
Richard Sutton kind of poured this cold

662
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,157
water on the on the bitter lesson. So

663
00:35:22,240 --> 00:35:24,397
everyone was using this uh essay that he

664
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,237
wrote called the bitter lesson. The idea

665
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,597
is that there are um infinitely scalable

666
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:34,397
ways of uh doing uh uh AI research and

667
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,437
and and and anytime you can pour more

668
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:41,597
compute and more data and go more
performance out you're just you know

669
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,277
that's the ultimate way of getting to

670
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:47,437
AGI and some people you know interpreted

671
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,157
that interview that perhaps he's

672
00:35:50,240 --> 00:35:52,717
doubtful that even we're even on a on a

673
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:56,317
bitter uh lessened path here and perhaps

674
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,797
the current training regime is actually

675
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,277
very much the opposite in which we we

676
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,837
are so dependent on human data and human

677
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,917
annotation and and all of that stuff. So

678
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,037
I think the I I agree with you. I mean

679
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,197
as a company we're we're excited about
where things are headed but but there's

680
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,277
there's a question of like are we on

681
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:20,397
track to AGI or not and be curious what
you think. So, so and you know Ilia I

682
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,037
think you know Ilioskcover makes a makes
a specific form of this argument which

683
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,357
is basically like we're just literally
running out of training data. It's a

684
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,557
fossil fuel argument right like if we
slurped all the training fundamentally

685
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,797
we've slurped all the data off
the internet that is where almost all the

686
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,597
data is at this point. There's a little
bit more data that's in like you know

687
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,157
private dark pool somewhere
that we're going to go get but like

688
00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:38,477
>> we have it all and then right we're
we're in this business now trying to

689
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,037
generate new data but generating new
data is hard and expensive you know

690
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,517
compared to just like slurping
things off the internet. So

691
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,557
>> there are these arguments. Um you know
having said that you know you get into

692
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,797
definitional questions here really
quick which are kind of a rabbit hole but

693
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,117
having said that like you mentioned
transfer learning. So transfer learning

694
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,237
is the ability of the machine to right
to be an expert in one domain and then

695
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,397
and then generalize
that into another domain.

696
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,957
>> My answer to that is
like have you met people?

697
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:03,037
>> Um and how many people do you
know are able to do transfer learning?

698
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,437
>> Not many. Right. Well because there's

699
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,037
>> quite the opposite
actually. The nerdier

700
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:11,517
they are in a certain domain the kind of
you know often they have blind spots. We

701
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,797
joke about how everyone's just
in one area or they make some like

702
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,157
massive mistake and and like don't trust
them on this but on this other topic you

703
00:37:18,240 --> 00:37:20,717
know >> right? Yeah. Well and this is a
well-known thing among like for example

704
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,717
public intellect. So this happens
there's actually been whole books

705
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,197
written about this on so-called public
intellectuals. So you get these people

706
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,077
who show up on TV and they're experts
and what happens is they're like an

707
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,717
expert in economics right and then
they show up on TV and they talk about

708
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,757
politics and they don't know anything
about politics right or they don't know

709
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,397
anything about like medicine or they
don't know anything about the law or

710
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,797
they don't know anything about computers.
You know, this is the Paul

711
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,197
Gregman talking about how the internet's
going to be no more significant than the

712
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,197
fax machine. >> Facts.
>> He's a brilliant economist. He has no

713
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:44,237
idea what a how a computer works.

714
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:45,517
>> Is he a brilliant economist?

715
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,437
>> Well, at one at one point at one point

716
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:54,397
at one point, let's get even if even if
he's a brilliant Well, this is the thing

717
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,877
like what does that mean? Like should
a brilliant economist be able to

718
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,717
extrapolate, you know, the internet is
is a good question. But um but the point

719
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,837
being like even if he is a you know,
take any take anybody Oh, by the way, or

720
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:07,757
like Ein like Einstein's like actually
my favorite example. I think you'd agree

721
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:09,357
Einstein was a brilliant physicist.

722
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,437
>> He was like a he
was he was a Stalinist.

723
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,237
Like he was just he was Yeah. He was a
socialist and he was a Stalinist and he

724
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,317
was like he thought like
Stalin was fantastic.

725
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,797
>> Out still. >> Yeah. Okay. All right.

726
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:24,077
>> True socialism. >> All right.
All right. Einstein, you know, I'll I'll

727
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,957
I'll take your word for it. But like
once he got into politics, he was just

728
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,837
like totally loopy or or you know,
even right or wrong. It's just he just

729
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,557
sounded like all of a sudden like
an undergraduate lunatic, like somebody in

730
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,357
a dorm room. Like he there was no
transfer learning from physics into

731
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:39,197
politics. like he he didn't listen right
or wrong he didn't there was no there

732
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,477
was clearly there was nothing new in his
political analysis it was the same wrote

733
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,757
routine you get out of >> you
know yeah so so in a way the

734
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:50,077
argument you're making is like we maybe
already a human level AI I mean perhaps

735
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:54,157
the definition of AGI is is is something
totally different is like above human

736
00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:57,677
level that something that totally
generalizes across domains it's it's not

737
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,317
something that we've seen >> yeah
like we've ideal yeah I was saying

738
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,877
we we've we've and you know look we
should we should shoot big but we we've

739
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:07,437
idealized a a we've idealized a goal
um that may be idealized in a way that

740
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,637
like number one it's just it it's it's
like so far beyond what people can do

741
00:39:10,720 --> 00:39:13,277
that it's you're no longer it's no
longer relevant comparison to people and

742
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,397
and usually AGI is defined as you know
able to do everything better than a

743
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,877
person can >> and it's
like well okay so if doing

744
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,357
everything better than a person can it's
like if a person can't do any transfer

745
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,717
learning at all >> right doing
even a little little bit a

746
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,357
marginal bit might might actually
be better or it might not matter just

747
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,077
because no no human can do it and so
therefore you just you just stack up the

748
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,357
domains there's also this well-known
phenomenon in AI with you know t

749
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,317
typically this works the other way which
there's a phenomenon AI AI engineers

750
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,957
always complain about and scientists
always complain about which is the

751
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,477
definition of AI is always the next
thing that that the machine can't do and

752
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,677
so like the definition for of AI for a
long time was like can it beat humans at

753
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,517
chess >> and then the minute
it could beat humans

754
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,717
at chess that was no longer AI that
was just like oh that's just like boring

755
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,437
>> that's computer chess it became >>
computer chess it's just like boring and

756
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,477
now it's an app on your iPhone and nobody
nobody and nobody cares right and

757
00:39:56,560 --> 00:40:00,317
it's immediately then >> cheering test was
the test and then we passed it and nobody

758
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,957
>> we blew this is a really big
deal >> there was no celebration

759
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,317
>> there was no parties That's exactly
right. There was no for 80 years the

760
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,117
Turing test I mean they made a movie
about it like the whole thing that was

761
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,917
the thing and like we blew right through
it and nobody even registered it. Nobody

762
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,317
cares. It gets no credit for it.
We're just like ah it's still you know

763
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,997
complete p piece of like >> right
and so there's this thing where so

764
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,757
the AI scientists are are are used
to complaining basically that they're that

765
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,157
they're they're being they're always
being judged against the next thing as

766
00:40:24,240 --> 00:40:26,317
opposed to all the things they've
already they've already solved.

767
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,757
>> Um uh but but that's maybe the other
side of it which is they're also putting

768
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,757
out for themselves um an unreasonable
goal. an an unreasonable goal and then

769
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,957
doing this sort of self flagagillation
kind of along the way and and and I I

770
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,277
kind of wonder yeah I I wonder
kind of which way that cuts.

771
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,037
>> Yeah. Yeah.
It's an interesting question

772
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:42,557
like I started thinking about this idea

773
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,117
of like it doesn't matter whether it's

774
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,237
truly AGI and the way I define AGI is

775
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,197
that you put in a AI system in any

776
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,677
environment and efficiently learns right

777
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,437
>> um you know it
doesn't have to have that

778
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,557
much prior knowledge in order to kind
of learn something but also can transfer

779
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,877
that knowledge across different domains.

780
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:03,677
Um but you know we can get to like

781
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,157
functional AGI and what functional AGI

782
00:41:06,240 --> 00:41:09,357
is is just yeah collect data on every uh

783
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,637
useful uh economic activity in uh in the

784
00:41:12,720 --> 00:41:15,517
world today and train an LLM on top of

785
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,677
that or train the same foundation model
on top of that and and we we'll go we'll

786
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,757
target every sector economy and and you
can automate a big part of labor that

787
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,757
way. So I think I think yeah I
think we're on that track for sure.

788
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,197
>> Right. um you tweeted after GBG5
came out that you were feeling the

789
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:35,437
diminishing returns. Yeah. What were you
expecting and but and and what needs to

790
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,077
be done? Do we need another breakthrough
to get back to the pace of growth or

791
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,637
what are your thoughts there?
>> I mean this this whole discussion is is

792
00:41:40,720 --> 00:41:42,557
sort of about that and and my feeling is

793
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:46,877
that uh you know GPT5 uh got good at

794
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:51,837
verifiable domains. It didn't feel that
much better at anything else. the more

795
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:53,437
human angle of it. It felt like it

796
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:55,677
regressed and like you had this uh sort

797
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:59,837
of uh Reddit pitchfork uh sort of uh

798
00:41:59,920 --> 00:42:02,317
movement against against Sam and Open AI

799
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,157
because they felt like they lost a

800
00:42:04,240 --> 00:42:06,877
friend. Gupta felt a lot more human and

801
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:10,957
closer uh whereas GT5 felt a lot more

802
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:14,557
robotic, you know, very in its head
kind of trying to think through through

803
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,437
everything. And um and so I I I would

804
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:19,117
have just expected like when we went

805
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:23,037
from GP2 2 to 3, it was clear it was

806
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,757
getting a lot more human. It was uh a

807
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:30,557
lot closer to our experience. It can you
can feel like it's actually all it gets

808
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,397
me like there's something about it that

809
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,557
understands the world better. Similarly

810
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:39,277
3 to four to five didn't feel like it

811
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:42,717
was a better overall

812
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,597
being as it were. But is that is that is

813
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:47,917
that is that a is the question there

814
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:50,717
like is it emotionality? Is it partly

815
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,437
emotionality but but again partly like I

816
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,437
like to ask models like very

817
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,557
controversial uh things. Um can it

818
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,117
reason through

819
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:06,717
uh I don't know how deep we want to go
here but like um what happened with

820
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,837
World Trade 7, >> right? >> Sure.

821
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:11,197
>> It's an interesting question, right?

822
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:15,437
Like I'm not I'm not putting out a theory,
but like it's interesting like

823
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,517
how did it you know and and can it can

824
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:19,917
it think through controversial questions

825
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,557
>> in the same way that it can go think

826
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:27,597
through a coding problem and there
hasn't been any movement there like the

827
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,797
all the reasoning and all of that stuff
I haven't se and not just that you know

828
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:36,237
that's a cute example but like um co
right like you know the origins of co

829
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:41,197
right >> you know go you know
dig up GPT4 or other models

830
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:44,957
and go to GPT5, you're not going to find
that much difference of okay, let's

831
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,157
reason together. Let's try to figure out
what was the origins of CO because it's

832
00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:52,237
still an unanswered question, you know,
and I don't see them making progress in

833
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:53,517
that. I mean, you play a lot with them.

834
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,277
Do you feel like >> I use
it differently? I don't know,

835
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:59,597
maybe I have different expectations.
Um, I I'm I the way I my main use case

836
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:03,437
actually is sort of sort of PhD and
everything at my beck and call. Um, and

837
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,997
so I'm I'm trying to get it to explain
things to me more than I'm trying to

838
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:09,357
like, you know, have conversations
with it. Maybe maybe I'm just unusual with

839
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,317
that. But >> and that that that gets back
>> well. So what I what I what I found

840
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:16,397
specifically is uh a combination of like
GPT5 Pro plus deep reasoning or like

841
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:21,277
Rock 4 heavy like the you know the the
highest end models um u like that um you

842
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,797
know they now basically generate 30
to 40 page you know essentially books on

843
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:29,677
demand on any topic. Um and so anytime
I get curious about something you just

844
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,397
take it maybe it's my version of it but
it's something like I don't like a good

845
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:36,157
here's a good example. um when when when
a when an advanced economy puts a tariff

846
00:44:36,240 --> 00:44:38,957
on on on a raw m you know on a raw
material or on a finished good like who

847
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,477
pays >> you know is it is it the consumer
is it the is it the importer is it the

848
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,677
exporter or is it the producer and
and this actually a very complicated it

849
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,557
turns out very complicated question
it's a big big big thing that economists

850
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,757
study a lot and it's just like okay who
you know who pays and what I found like

851
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:53,677
for that kind of thing is it's outstanding

852
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:57,437
>> well well but but it's outstanding
at um sort of going out of the web getting

853
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,637
information synthesizing it >>
correct it it gives me it gives me a

854
00:45:00,720 --> 00:45:02,957
synthesized 20 30 40 p basically tops

855
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,437
out 40 p 40 40 pages of PDF. Yeah.

856
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,037
>> Um uh but I can get I can get up
to 40 pages of PDF but it's a completely

857
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,317
coherent and as far as I can tell for
everything I've cross-cheed a completely

858
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,997
like it like world class like if I hired
you know for a question like that if I

859
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:20,317
hired like a great you know econ
posttock at Stanford who just like went

860
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,877
out and did that work like
it would maybe be that good.

861
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:24,477
>> Yeah. Um but then
but then of course the

862
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:28,077
significance is it's like it's like you
know at least for this is true for many

863
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:29,917
domains you know kind
of PhD and everything and so

864
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,277
>> but but this is synthesizing knowledge
not trying to create new knowledge.

865
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,037
>> Well but this this
gets to the this sort

866
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:37,837
of you know of course the you get into
the angels dancing on the head of a pin

867
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:40,797
thing which is like what what you know
what's the difference how many how much

868
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,157
new knowledge ever actually is there
anyway? What do you actually expect from

869
00:45:44,240 --> 00:45:47,437
people when you ask them questions?
Um, and so what what I'm looking for is

870
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,157
like, yes, explain this to me
in like the the the clearest, most

871
00:45:50,240 --> 00:45:53,677
sophisticated, most complex, most like
complete way that it's possible for

872
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,757
somebody to, you know, for a real expert
to be able to to to explain things to me.

873
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:00,077
>> Um, and that's what I use it for.
And again, as far as I can tell from the

874
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,877
crossing, like I'm getting, you know,
like almost like basically 100 out of

875
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:07,517
100, like I don't even think I've had
an issue in months where it's like had had

876
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,917
a problem in it. >> And it's
like, yeah, you can say, yeah,

877
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,237
synthesizing is supposed to create
new information, but like it's it's

878
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,037
generating a 40 p.
He's basically generating a 40-page book.

879
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,157
>> That's amazing. >> That's
like incredibly like fluid. It's,

880
00:46:18,240 --> 00:46:22,077
you know, it's it's it's it's you know,
the the logical coherence of the entire

881
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:26,477
like it's it's a great writing. Like
if if you if you evaluated an a a human

882
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,677
author on it, you would say, "Wow,
that's a great author." You know, do are

883
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,877
people who write books, you know,
creating new knowledge? Well, yeah.

884
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,997
Well, sort of not because a lot of what
they're doing is building on everything

885
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,677
that came before them is synthesizing
a mind, but also like a book is a creative

886
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,517
accomplishment, right? And so, >> yeah,
one of the thing I'm I'm I'm I'm

887
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:45,917
interested in I'm hoping AI could help

888
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,357
us solve is just like how confusing the

889
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:53,037
information ecosystem right now. You know,
everything feels like propaganda.

890
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,997
Like it doesn't feel like you're getting
real information from anywhere. So, I I

891
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,837
really want an AI that could help
me reason from first principles about

892
00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:04,237
what's happening in the world for me
to actually get real information. and and

893
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:08,877
maybe that's an unreasonable sort of ask
of of the AI researchers, but but I

894
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,077
don't think we're we have made any
progress there. So maybe I'm over focus.

895
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,277
Yeah, maybe I'm over in being in my
my line or maybe I'm over focused on ar

896
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:18,877
arguing at people as opposed to um
trying to get as trying to get underline

897
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,917
truth. But well here here's the thing I
I do a lot with this is I just say like

898
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:25,837
take take a provocative point of view
um and then steel man the position take

899
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:29,277
your co thing steel so I often I often
pair these steel man the position that

900
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,877
it was a lab leak um and steel man
the position that it was natural origins

901
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,317
>> um and and again
like is this creativity

902
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,357
or not? I don't know. But like what
comes back is like 30 pages each of like

903
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,237
wow like that is like the most
compelling case in the world I can

904
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:42,877
imagine with like every you know
everything marshaled against it like the

905
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:44,557
argument structured
in like the most possible

906
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,037
>> part of the reason that started
happening is because it stopped being

907
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:51,277
taboo to talk about a human
origin when it was taboo

908
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,917
>> the the AIS would like talk will you

909
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:55,757
know talk down to like oh you're a

910
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:58,957
conspiracy theorist and so yes uh so

911
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,877
there's a there's a you know period
of time and so it takes something truly

912
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,757
controversial and they actually they
they can't reason about it because of

913
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:09,677
all RLHF and answers all the limitations
and as as you know I won't pick no

914
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,237
specific ones here but like there there
are certain certain big models that will

915
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,877
still lecture you >> that you're
a bad person for asking that

916
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,917
question but but you know like I just
there some of them are just like really

917
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:19,437
really open now to you know being able

918
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:20,797
to do these things

919
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:25,517
>> um and then um uh yeah so um okay uh

920
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,517
yeah so okay so yeah so there's this
yeah so so basically like ultimately

921
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,717
what you're looking for like
the ultimate thing would be if there's

922
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,957
something that's like I don't I think
anybody's really defined this really

923
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:37,597
well because it's not because again
it's like the conventional all the

924
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,077
conventional definitions of AGI are
like basically comparing to people.

925
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:41,757
>> Yeah. >> And there
there and there it's always

926
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,317
like you know it's the conventional

927
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:49,277
explanations of of of um of uh of AGI
always for me struck me a lot like the

928
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,677
debate around like whether
a self-driving car works or not which is

929
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,277
is does a self-driving car work because
it's a perfect driver uh or does it work

930
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,877
because it is a is better than the human
driver and better than the human driver

931
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,757
I think is actually quite you know just
like with the the chess thing and the go

932
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,477
thing. I actually think like that that
that's like a real thing. And then and

933
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,277
then and then and then there's the like
is it a perfect driver which is you know

934
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:09,597
what they're obviously the the
self-driving car companies are working

935
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,557
for but then I think you're looking
for something beyond the perfect driver.

936
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:16,077
You're looking for the car who like
knows where to go. So I I I I'm of two

937
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,157
minds, right? So one mind is the sort
of practical entrepreneur, right?

938
00:49:20,240 --> 00:49:22,797
>> Uh and I just I have so many toys to

939
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:27,277
play with to build like stop AI progress
today and replet will continue to get

940
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,477
better for the next 5 years.
like there's so much we can do just on the

941
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,197
app uh app layer
and the infrastructure layer.

942
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:37,757
>> So you know I but but I think that will
you know the the foundation models will

943
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,877
continue to get better as well and so
it's it's a very exciting time in our

944
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,277
industry. Um the other mind is more
academic because as a kid I've always

945
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:49,197
been interested in the nature of
consciousness, nature of intelligence. I

946
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,277
was always interested in AI and reading

947
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:56,397
the literature there and I would point
to the RL uh literature. So Richard

948
00:49:56,480 --> 00:50:00,397
Soden, there's another guy I think
co-founder of deep mind Shane Lag wrote

949
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,797
wrote a paper trying to define what AGI

950
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,237
is. Um and in there I think that the

951
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,717
definition of AI I think is the is the

952
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:12,317
original perhaps correct one which is uh

953
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:16,237
efficient continual learning. >> Okay.
Like if you if you truly want to

954
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:20,557
build an artificial general intelligence
that you can drop in any domain, you can

955
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:23,117
drop in a car without that much prior

956
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:27,437
knowledge about cars and within um you

957
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:31,117
know how long does it take a human to to
learn how to drive you within months be

958
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:35,437
able to drive a car really well,
you know, generalized skill sort of

959
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:39,437
generalized skill acquisition,
generalized understanding acquisition,

960
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,277
generalized reasoning acquisition. And I
think that's the thing that will like

961
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:47,437
truly change the world. That's
the thing that would give us a better

962
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,597
understanding of of the human mind of

963
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:51,917
human consciousness and that's the thing

964
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,637
that will like propel us to the next uh

965
00:50:54,720 --> 00:50:57,437
level of human civilization.

966
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:59,757
on a civilization level that's a really

967
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:04,760
deep question but separ

968
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:07,517
but but there's an academic
aspect of it that I'm really

969
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,477
>> so what and what odds what if we're
on if we're on Kelsey today what what odds

970
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:11,677
do we place on that

971
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:15,197
>> I I I'm kind of bearish on on on true

972
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:17,757
AGI breakthrough because

973
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,797
>> what we built is so useful and

974
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:23,997
economically valuable uh so in a way

975
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:28,157
>> good enough good enough is the enemy
Yeah. Yeah. Do do you remember that

976
00:51:28,240 --> 00:51:29,997
essay? Um, >> worse is better.

977
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,397
>> Worse is better. >> Worse is better.
Worse is better. And and

978
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:35,117
>> so there's like a local there's like
a trap. There's like a local local maximum

979
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:38,557
trap. We're in a local maximum >>
local maximum trap where it's because

980
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,757
it's because it's good enough for so
much economically productive work.

981
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,477
>> Yes. >> It relieves
the pressure um in the

982
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,077
system to create the generalized answer.

983
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,197
>> Yes. And and then you have the weirdos
like Rich Sutton and others that are

984
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,917
still trying to go that down
that path and maybe they'll succeed,

985
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,997
>> right? Uh but there's enormous
optimization energy behind the current

986
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,637
thing that we're hell climbing
on this like local maximum.

987
00:51:58,720 --> 00:52:01,037
>> Right. Right. Right. And and the irony
of it is everybody's worried about like

988
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,517
the you know the gazillions of dollars
going into building out all this stuff

989
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:06,797
and and so the the the most ironic thing
in the world would be if the gazillions

990
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,477
of dollars are going
into the local maximum.

991
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:10,557
>> That's right.
>> As as opposed to a counterfactual world

992
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,397
in which they're going into
solving the general problem.

993
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,197
>> But but it's also potentially
irrational. Like maybe the general

994
00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:20,077
problem is actually you know not within
our lifetimes. Who knows? Right. Um, h

995
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,877
>> how much further do you think like
do you think we squeeze most of the juice

996
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,077
out of out of LLMs in general then?
Or are there any other research directions

997
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,597
that you're particularly um excited about?

998
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:31,837
>> Well, that's the thing. I think the

999
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:33,997
problem is there aren't that that many.

1000
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:38,717
I I think the the the breakthroughs
in RL are incredibly exciting, but we also

1001
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,637
knew about them now for like over 10
years where you marry generative uh

1002
00:52:42,720 --> 00:52:47,357
systems with uh with tree search
and things like that. Um but but there's a

1003
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:51,997
lot more to go there and I think again
the the the the original minds behind

1004
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:55,517
reinforcement learning are trying
to go down that path and try to kind of

1005
00:52:55,600 --> 00:53:00,557
bootstrap intelligence from scratch.
Uh Carmarmac is is going down that path as

1006
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:04,237
as far as I understand Carmarmac you
guys may be invested but the the you

1007
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:07,277
know they're they're not trying to go
down the LLM path. So there are people

1008
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:11,997
that are trying to do that but I'm
not seeing a lot of progress or outcome

1009
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:13,837
there but I watch it kind of from far.

1010
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,237
Although, you know, for all we know,
it's already there's already a bot on X

1011
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:19,837
somewhere. >> You know,
you know, you never know. It

1012
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:21,917
might not be a big announcement.
It might just be a you know, one day

1013
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:24,477
there's just like a bot on X that
starts winning all the arguments.

1014
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:28,957
>> Yeah, it could be >> or a
code a user read and all of a

1015
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,677
sudden it's >> generating
incredible software. Um,

1016
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:34,477
okay. Let's uh let's spend our remaining
minutes. Let's let's let's talk about

1017
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:38,717
you. So, uh so uh so how so yeah, take
us start from the beginning with your uh

1018
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,197
with your life and how how did you get
how did you get from being born to being

1019
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:45,597
in Silicon Valley? >> Okay.
um >> in two minutes. Yeah,

1020
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,197
>> I'm just I'm joking. But

1021
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:50,557
>> yeah, I I got
introduced to computers uh

1022
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,437
very very early on. And so for whatever

1023
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:58,557
reason, so I was born in Aman, Jordan
>> and for whatever reason, my my dad who

1024
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:00,397
was just a government engineer at the

1025
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:03,597
time uh decided that computers were

1026
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,757
important and he didn't have a lot
of money took out of that, bought a

1027
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:10,477
computer. It was the first computer
in their in our neighborhood. first

1028
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:14,317
computer of anyone I know. And I just

1029
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:18,077
one of my earliest memories I was 6
years old just watching my dad unpack

1030
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,877
this machine and sort of open up this

1031
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:24,317
huge manual and kind of finger type CD

1032
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:29,197
LS MKDIR and like I would, you know,
be behind his shoulder and just like

1033
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:33,197
watching him, you know, type these
commands and seeing the sort of machine

1034
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,157
kind of respond and do exactly what he's

1035
00:54:36,240 --> 00:54:41,680
asked it to do. Um,
>> pop in Tylenol as your

1036
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:47,757
Exactly. Autism activated.
>> Of course, you have to.

1037
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:51,517
>> You have to. >> Exactly.
What kind of um what kind of

1038
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:55,917
computer was it? >> Uh it
was uh an IBM as far as I

1039
00:54:56,000 --> 00:55:00,557
remember. It was IBM PC.
>> What year was this? Uh 1993.

1040
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,917
>> 1993. Okay. So, it's DOS. So,
did it have Windows at that point or

1041
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:05,197
>> No, it didn't have Windows.

1042
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:07,917
>> Right before Windows. right before
Windows, but I think Windows had been

1043
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,277
out, but you would add >> you it
was an add-on. You wouldn't boot

1044
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,597
it up. So, we I think we bought the disc

1045
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,397
for uh for uh for Windows and you had to

1046
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:20,797
kind of uh bootloaded, you know,
from the disk and and it will open Windows

1047
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:24,077
and you can click around. It wasn't
that interesting cuz there wasn't a lot on

1048
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:25,917
it. So, a lot of time I just spend in

1049
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,477
DOSs and writing batch files and opening

1050
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:31,597
games and messing around with that. Um

1051
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:36,637
but it wasn't until Visual Basic that I
started. So like after Windows 95 that I

1052
00:55:36,720 --> 00:55:38,317
started making real software, right?

1053
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:41,997
>> Uh and the first idea I had was um I I

1054
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,477
used to be a huge gamer. So I used I

1055
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:49,437
used to go to these uh Lang gaming cafes
and play Counter Strike and I would go

1056
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,797
there and you know the whole thing is full
of computers but they don't use any

1057
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,477
software to run their business. M it
was just like people running around just

1058
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:00,317
like writing down your machine number,
how much time you spend on it and how

1059
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,277
much did you pay and kind of tapping
your shoulders like hey you need to pay

1060
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,797
a little more for that. And I asked
him like why don't you like just build a

1061
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:09,997
piece of software that allows me to log
in and have a time or whatever. And I

1062
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:13,117
was like yeah we don't know how to do
that. And I was like okay I think I know

1063
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:17,357
how to do that. So I spent I was like
12 or something like that. I spent like 2

1064
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:21,517
years building that uh and then went
out and tried to sell it and was able to

1065
00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:23,597
sell it uh and was making so much money.

1066
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,637
I remember McDonald's opened uh in

1067
00:56:26,720 --> 00:56:30,717
Jordan uh around the time when I
was 13 14. I took my entire class to

1068
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:32,237
McDonald's. It was very expensive, but I

1069
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:35,677
was balling it all this money and I was

1070
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:39,677
showing off um and uh and so that was

1071
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:43,517
the first uh business that I uh created.

1072
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:46,397
And then when it came to and at the time

1073
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:48,877
I started kind of learning about AI, you

1074
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:53,757
know, reading sci-fi and all of that
stuff. And when it came time to go to

1075
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:57,917
college, uh I didn't want to go
to computer science because I felt like

1076
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:02,877
coding is on its way to get automated.
I remember using these um wizards. Do you

1077
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:05,997
remember wizards? >> Yes.
>> Wizards basically. It's like extremely

1078
00:57:06,080 --> 00:57:09,197
crude early bots or that generate code.

1079
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:10,797
Yeah. >> Yeah.
And I remember you could like, you

1080
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:13,837
know, type in a few things like
here's my project, here's what it does,

1081
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:17,197
whatever, and then click click click and
just like scaffold a lot of code. I was

1082
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:18,637
like, oh, I think that's the future.

1083
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:22,637
Like coding is such a >> it's almost >>
yeah it's solved you know why why should

1084
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:27,197
I go into coding I was okay if AI can
do the code what should I do well someone

1085
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:30,317
needs to build and maintain the computers
and so I went to the computer

1086
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,477
engineering and and and did that for a

1087
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:35,757
while uh but then rediscovered my love

1088
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,397
for for programming uh reading program

1089
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:41,197
essays on lisp and things like that and

1090
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:45,597
uh started messing around with scheme
and programming languages like that um

1091
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:49,277
but then I found it incredibly difficult
to just like learn different programming

1092
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:53,277
languages. I didn't have a laptop at
the time. And so every time I go to like

1093
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,077
wanting to learn Python or Java, I would

1094
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:58,717
go to the computer lab, download

1095
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,517
gigabytes of software, try to set it up,

1096
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:03,677
type a little bit of code, try to run

1097
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:06,797
it, you know, run into missing DL issue

1098
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:10,077
or and I was like, man, this is so

1099
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:13,037
primitive. Like at the time it was 2008

1100
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:16,157
something like that you know we had uh

1101
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:18,317
Google Docs, we had Gmail, you could

1102
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:21,357
like open the browser uh and partly

1103
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:23,917
thanks to you and be able to kind of uh

1104
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:28,397
use software on the internet and I
thought the web is the ultimate software

1105
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:31,917
platform like everything should go
on the web. Okay, who's building an online

1106
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:35,837
development environment, right? And and no
one, right? And it felt like I w I

1107
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:40,637
found like $100 bill on the, you know,
on the floor of Grand Association. Like

1108
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:44,237
surely someone should be building this,
but no, no one was building this. And so

1109
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,557
I was like, okay,
I'll I'll try to build it.

1110
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:51,437
>> And I got something done in like
a couple hours. Uh, which was a text box.

1111
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:54,797
You type in some JavaScript. We
And there's a there's a button that says

1112
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:57,597
eval. You click eval and evaluates. It

1113
00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:59,757
shows you in a in an alert box, right?

1114
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:03,917
Right. So oneplus 1 2 I was like oh I
have a programming environment. I showed

1115
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:07,197
it to my friends people started using it.
I added a few additional things like

1116
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:11,037
saving the program. I was like okay
all right this is there's there's a real

1117
00:59:11,120 --> 00:59:15,277
idea here. People love it. And then
again it took me two two or three years

1118
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:18,877
to actually be able to build anything
because you know the browser can only

1119
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:21,117
run JavaScript. And it took a

1120
00:59:21,200 --> 00:59:24,077
breakthrough at the time. Uh, Moisella

1121
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:26,397
had a research project called mcripton

1122
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:30,077
that allowed you to uh compile different

1123
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:32,237
uh programming languages like C, C++

1124
00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:35,597
into JavaScript. And for the browser to

1125
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:39,437
be able to run something like Python,
I needed to compile C, Python to

1126
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:44,237
JavaScript. So I was the first to do it
in the world. uh so built uh contributed

1127
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:45,677
to that project and built a lot of the

1128
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:49,357
scaffolding around it and we uh my

1129
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:53,917
friends and I compiled Python into
JavaScript and I was like okay we did it

1130
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:58,077
for Python let's do it for Ruby let's
do it for Lo and that's how the emergence

1131
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:01,837
of the idea for replet came is that when
you need a ripple you should get it you

1132
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:05,437
should replet it and so ripple is is the
most primitive programming environment

1133
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:08,877
possible so I added all these
programming languages and again all this

1134
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:11,597
time my friends were
using it and excited about

1135
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:15,997
And I was on GitHub at the time and just
my standard thing is like when I make a

1136
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:19,677
piece of software is open source it. And
so I was open sourcing all the things I

1137
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:23,517
was you know years building just like
this underlying infrastructure to be

1138
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:25,757
able to just run code in the browser

1139
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,157
>> and then it went viral uh went viral in

1140
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,357
hacker news and it coincided with the

1141
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:34,397
MOO era. So massively online courses

1142
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:38,797
Udacity was coming online Corsera
and and most famously Code Academy. Right.

1143
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:42,717
So, Code Academy uh was the first kind
of website that allowed you to code in

1144
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:46,477
the browser interactively and learn how
to code. And they built a lot of it on

1145
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:49,597
my software that I was open sourcing all
the way from Jordan. And so, I remember

1146
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:52,237
seeing them on Hacker News and they
were going super viral. I was like, "Hey,

1147
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:54,317
that's, you know, I I recognize this.

1148
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,797
What are you using?" And so, I left
the Hacker News comments. I was like, "Oh,

1149
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,117
you're using my my open source package."

1150
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:02,077
And so, they reached out to me. They uh
they're like, "Hey, would like to hire

1151
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:04,877
you." I was like, "I'm not interested.
I I want to start a startup. I want to

1152
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:09,197
start this thing called Replet." and and
they're like, "Well, no, you know, you

1153
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:12,717
should come work with us. We can we can
do the same stuff." And I kept saying,

1154
01:01:12,800 --> 01:01:16,157
"No." I was like, "Okay, I'll contract
with you." They were paying me $12 an

1155
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:17,517
hour. I was really excited about it.

1156
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:21,357
Back from Oman. >> Um,
but they came out to their to their

1157
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,397
credit. They came out of Jordan
to recruit me and spend a few a few days

1158
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:28,157
there. And then I, you know, I kept
saying no. And in the end, they gave me

1159
01:01:28,240 --> 01:01:33,037
an offer I can't refuse. Um, and they got
me an O1 visa. Came to the United States.

1160
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:37,037
>> That's when you moved. So when when was
the first cuz you were born what year to

1161
01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:39,357
>> 1987 >> 87.
What was the first year that you

1162
01:01:39,440 --> 01:01:41,917
could remember where you had the idea
that you might not live your life in

1163
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:44,317
Jordan and that you might you
might actually move to the US?

1164
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:46,557
>> Uh when I watched
Pirates of Silicon Valley.

1165
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:47,837
>> Is that right? Okay. Got it. All right.

1166
01:01:47,920 --> 01:01:52,157
>> Uh maybe 98 or 99.
I don't know when it came out.

1167
01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:53,917
>> Okay. That might be
a good place to >> Yeah.

1168
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:56,397
>> Is it worth telling the hacker story
because there's a version of the world

1169
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:59,677
where you didn't actually like if that
changed maybe you wouldn't have gone to

1170
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:03,197
America. >> Right. Right.
Yeah. So uh in in school I

1171
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:06,717
was programming the whole time you so I
I just want to start businesses. I just

1172
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:09,997
like I'm exploding with ideas all the
time. And like the reason Replet exists

1173
01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:13,357
is because I have ideas all the time.
I just want to go type on the computer and

1174
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:17,117
like build them. Um so I wasn't going
to school. It was like incredibly boring

1175
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:21,117
for me. Uh and part of the reason why
Replet has a mobile app today is because

1176
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:25,037
I always wanted to program
under the desk just to do things.

1177
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:27,917
>> Um and so the at school they kept

1178
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,557
failing me uh for attendance. you know,

1179
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:35,037
so I would get A's, but I just didn't
show up and so they they would fail me.

1180
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:37,517
And so I felt it was incredibly unfair.

1181
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:39,517
And all my friends were graduating now.

1182
01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:43,997
This year was like 2011. I've been like
for 6 years in college. It should be

1183
01:02:44,080 --> 01:02:45,917
like a three or four year. And I was

1184
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:47,517
like incredibly depressed. I really

1185
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:51,037
wanted to be in Silicon Valley. And so I

1186
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:54,877
was like, "Oh, what if
I changed my grades?"

1187
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:55,917
>> There we go.

1188
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:59,517
>> The university database. And um and and

1189
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:05,277
so I went into my parents uh uh basement

1190
01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:10,797
uh and uh implemented uh the polyphasic
sleep. Are you familiar with that?

1191
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:14,477
>> I I I I am >> uh Leonardo
da Vinci's uh polyphysic

1192
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:18,077
sleep. I didn't hear from Ronaldo da
Vinci. I heard it from Seinfeld cuz uh

1193
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:20,957
there's an episode where
John Kamemer goes on on

1194
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:25,917
>> poly sleep what 20 minutes every four
hours. 20 minutes every 24 hours. And

1195
01:03:26,000 --> 01:03:27,997
yes, and this this somehow
is going to work well. And it

1196
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:30,477
>> Yeah. And and hacking,
if you've ever done anything,

1197
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:33,277
>> as the meme goes, this this has never
worked for anybody else, but it might

1198
01:03:33,360 --> 01:03:36,397
but it might work for me. >> Yes.

1199
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:40,557
>> And a lot of what hacking is is that
you're you're coming up with ideas for

1200
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:43,597
like finding certain security holes
and like writing a script and then running

1201
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:46,877
that script and that script will take
like a 20 30 minutes to run and so

1202
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:50,317
you'll take that, you know, 20 30
minutes to sleep and go on. So I spent

1203
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:52,077
two weeks just going mad like trying to

1204
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:54,877
hack into the university database and uh

1205
01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:58,477
finally I found um a way I found a SQL

1206
01:03:58,560 --> 01:04:02,557
injection somewhere on the site uh and I
found a way to like be able to edit the

1207
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:06,797
the records but I didn't want to risk it.
So I went to my neighbor who's going

1208
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:10,637
to the same school. Uh I think till this
day no one caught him. But I went to him

1209
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:15,357
and I said um hey uh I have this way
to change grades like would you want to be

1210
01:04:15,440 --> 01:04:18,397
my guinea pig? And I was honest about it.
I was like I'm not going to do it.

1211
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:22,077
are you open to doing? He's like,
"Yeah, yeah, yeah." They call

1212
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:24,637
his human trials.

1213
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:27,677
This is how medicine works.

1214
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:32,397
So, so we we went and and and uh we went
and changed his grades and he he went

1215
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:36,957
and pulled his transcript and the you
know, the update wasn't wasn't there and

1216
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:41,517
went back to the basement. Well, turned
out that I had access to the uh slave

1217
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:43,997
database. I didn't have
access to ambassador database.

1218
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:48,397
>> So, find a way through the network
privilege escalation. It was an Oracle

1219
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:52,317
database that had a vulnerability and
then found the real database and then I

1220
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,877
just, you know, did it for myself. Uh,

1221
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:58,557
changed the grades and went and pulled

1222
01:04:58,640 --> 01:05:00,797
my scrcripts and sure enough it actually

1223
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:04,077
changed. Went and bought the the the

1224
01:05:04,160 --> 01:05:07,197
gown, went to the graduation parties,

1225
01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:10,637
uh, did all that. We're graduating. Um,

1226
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:13,357
and then one day I'm at home. It's like

1227
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:15,757
maybe 6:00 or 7:00 p.m. I get a you know

1228
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:19,677
the the telephone at home rings

1229
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:23,357
ominous ominous ring >> Santa

1230
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:27,357
um hello and he's like hey this is the
university registration system and I

1231
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:31,277
knew the guy that run it. Uh he's like
look you know we we we're having this

1232
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:36,157
problem. The system's been down all day
and it keeps coming back to your record.

1233
01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:38,157
there's an anomaly in your record where

1234
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:40,237
you're both pass you have a passing

1235
01:05:40,320 --> 01:05:43,277
grade but you're also banned from that

1236
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:47,837
uh final exam of subject I was like
oh well turns out the database is not

1237
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,157
normalized so typically that when they

1238
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:54,877
ban you from an exam the the grades
resets to 35 out of 100 but apparently

1239
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:57,997
there's a boolean flag and by the way
all the column names in the database are

1240
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:02,797
single single letters that was the hardest
thing is security by obscurity >> right

1241
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:04,317
>> and turns out there's a flag that I

1242
01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:06,237
didn't track so when when when when you

1243
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:09,917
go over attendance um uh when you don't

1244
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:13,677
attend and they they they want to fail
you, they they ban you from the final

1245
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:18,557
exam. So, I changed the grades
and that that that created uh an issue and

1246
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:22,877
brought down the system. So, they were
calling me and I thought at the time I

1247
01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:25,037
was like, you know, I could I could

1248
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:27,197
potentially lie and I'll it'll be a huge

1249
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:30,717
issue or I just like I'll just I'll just

1250
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:34,637
fess up. Yeah. So, I said, hey, listen,
look, um yeah, I might know something

1251
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:38,957
about it. Hey, let me let me come uh
tomorrow and kind of talk to you about

1252
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:43,037
what happened. So, I go in and I open
the door and it's the deans of all the

1253
01:06:43,120 --> 01:06:46,317
all the schools. It's a computer science
computer. They were all working on it

1254
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:50,717
for like days because it's like it's
like it's a very computerheavy, you

1255
01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:53,197
know, university and it was like a problem

1256
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:55,517
>> and they're all
kind of really intrigued

1257
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:59,597
about what happened. And so I pull up
a whiteboard and started explaining what I

1258
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:03,517
did and and everyone was engaged. I gave
them a lecture basically. your oral exam

1259
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:07,197
for your PhD. This is great.
>> They were they were they were really

1260
01:07:07,280 --> 01:07:11,277
excited and uh and I think I it was
endearing to them. I was like, "Oh, wow.

1261
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:13,597
This is a this is a very
interesting problem."

1262
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:15,997
>> Um and then I was like, "Okay, great.

1263
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:19,117
Thank you." And I was like, "Hey, wait,

1264
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:20,957
>> wait. We don't know
what to do with you.

1265
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:24,397
Do we send you to jail? Do we

1266
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:28,317
>> And uh I was like, "Hey, we have
to escalate to the university um uh

1267
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:30,717
president." and and he he was a great

1268
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:35,757
man and I think uh he gave me a second
chance in life and I went to him and I

1269
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:39,117
uh you know I I explained the situation
I said like I'm really frustrated. I

1270
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:42,797
need to graduate. I need to get on with
my life. I've been here for six years

1271
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:45,837
and I just can't sit in in in school the

1272
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:50,157
stuff I already know. I'm a really
good programmer. Uh and and he gave me a

1273
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,957
Spider-Man line at the time.
was like with great power comes great

1274
01:07:53,040 --> 01:07:55,357
responsibility and you have a great
power and you know and it really

1275
01:07:55,440 --> 01:08:00,637
affected me and I think he he was right
at the moment and and so he said well

1276
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:03,597
we're going to let you go but you're
going to have to help the system

1277
01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:07,997
administrators secure the system >> uh
for the summer I was like happy to do

1278
01:08:08,080 --> 01:08:12,477
it and I show up and all the programmers
there hate me hate my gut%

1279
01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:15,917
>> and uh they they would lock me out like
I would see them they would be outside I

1280
01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:18,397
would knock on the door and nobody would
listen it's like they don't want to let

1281
01:08:18,480 --> 01:08:20,477
me in I try to help them a little bit

1282
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:25,677
they theyen't and collaborative and so
I was like all right whatever. Uh and so

1283
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:27,117
it came time for me to actually

1284
01:08:27,200 --> 01:08:30,397
graduate. It was the final project and

1285
01:08:30,480 --> 01:08:34,237
one of the computer science dean came
to me and he said look I I need to call a

1286
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:38,237
favor. I was a big part of the reason we
kind of let you go and we didn't kind of

1287
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:43,357
prosecute you. Uh so I want you to work
with me on the um on the final project

1288
01:08:43,440 --> 01:08:47,037
and it's going to be around security and
hacking. I was like no I'm I'm done with

1289
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:50,317
that like I just want to I just want
to build programming environments

1290
01:08:50,400 --> 01:08:54,317
and things like that. Uh and he's like
no you have to do it. I was like okay.

1291
01:08:54,400 --> 01:08:57,117
So I I thought I' do something more
productive. So I wrote a security

1292
01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:00,957
scanner uh that was very proud of that
that kind of crawls the different side

1293
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:05,277
that tries to do SQL injection and all
sorts of things. Um and actually my

1294
01:09:05,360 --> 01:09:07,677
security scanner found another
vulnerability in the system.

1295
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,157
>> Amazing. >> And so I
went to the defense and he's

1296
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:14,157
like you need to run this security
scanner live and show that there's a

1297
01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:17,037
vulnerability. And I didn't understand
what was going on at the time, but I

1298
01:09:17,120 --> 01:09:21,757
just okay. So I gave the presentation
about how the system works and I was

1299
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:24,557
like, oh, let's run it. And it showed
that there's security vulnerability.

1300
01:09:24,640 --> 01:09:28,077
Okay, let's get let's try to get a shell.
So the system automatically runs

1301
01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:29,997
all the security stuff and it gets you

1302
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:33,197
gets you a shell. And then the other

1303
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:38,157
dean that turned out he was giving the
mandate to secure the system. And now I

1304
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:40,157
started to realize I'm a pawn in some

1305
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:44,557
kind of rivalry here. and and his his

1306
01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:48,237
face turned red and he's like, "No,
it's impossible. You know, we secured the

1307
01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:53,277
system. You're lying." I was like, "You
know, you're accusing me of lying." All

1308
01:09:53,360 --> 01:09:57,997
right. What should we know? Should
we know your um uh your salary or your

1309
01:09:58,080 --> 01:10:01,037
password? What do you want me to look up?
And I was like, "Yeah, I look up my

1310
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:04,957
password." So, I I look up his his
password. Uh and it was like gibberish.

1311
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:07,357
It was encrypted. And I was like, "Oh,
that's not my password. See, you're

1312
01:10:07,440 --> 01:10:10,557
lying." I was like, "Well, there's
a decrypt function that the programmers

1313
01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:15,117
put in there." So I I do decrypt and it
shows his password. It was something

1314
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:19,997
embarrassing. I forgot I forgot what
it was. And so he gets up really angry,

1315
01:10:20,080 --> 01:10:24,477
shakes my hand and leaves to change
his password. Uh so that I I was able to

1316
01:10:24,560 --> 01:10:26,557
hack into the university another time.

1317
01:10:26,640 --> 01:10:29,997
Luckily I I was able to graduate,
gave them the software, they secured the

1318
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:33,357
system. But um but yeah, later on I

1319
01:10:33,440 --> 01:10:37,037
would realize that yeah, he wanted to
embarrass the other guy, which was why I

1320
01:10:37,120 --> 01:10:39,357
was in the middle. >> Politics.
Well, I think the the moral

1321
01:10:39,440 --> 01:10:42,157
the moral of the story is if if you
can successfully hack into your school

1322
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:45,277
system and change your grade, you deserve
the grade and you deserve to graduate.

1323
01:10:45,360 --> 01:10:47,677
>> I I think so. >> And and
and just for any for any parents

1324
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:50,477
out there just children out there,
you can just you can see you can site you

1325
01:10:50,560 --> 01:10:53,917
can sight site me as the moral you can
site you can set out to me as the moral

1326
01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:55,597
moral authority moral authority on this.

1327
01:10:55,680 --> 01:10:58,477
One maybe lesson I think that is very

1328
01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:02,717
relevant for the AI age. Uh I think that

1329
01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:04,957
the traditional sort of more conformous

1330
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:08,477
path is paying less and less dividends

1331
01:11:08,560 --> 01:11:10,717
and I think uh you know kids coming up

1332
01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:13,117
today should use all the tools available

1333
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:15,837
to be able to discover and chart their

1334
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:18,557
own paths cuz I feel like just you know

1335
01:11:18,640 --> 01:11:21,357
listening to the traditional advice and

1336
01:11:21,440 --> 01:11:23,517
doing the same things that people have

1337
01:11:23,600 --> 01:11:29,117
always done is just not as it's not
working out as much as as we'd like.

1338
01:11:29,200 --> 01:11:33,800
>> Thanks for coming on the podcast.
Thank you, man. Fantastic.

1339
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:44,280
Wow.

1340
01:11:45,040 --> 01:11:48,600
Wow. Wow.
