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So I I've made this series
of predictions on um code and software

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engineering and and and I think people
have repeatedly kind of misunderstood

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them. So, so let me let me let me let me
let me lay out the spectrum, right? like

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I think it was like you know like you
know eight eight or nine months ago or

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something I said you know the AI model

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will be writing 90 90% of the lines of

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code in like you know 3 to 6 months

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which which happened at least at some
places right happened happened at

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Antropic happened with many people
downstream using our models but but

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that's actually a very weak criterion
right people thought I was saying like

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we won't need 90% of the software
engineers those things are worlds apart

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right like I would put the spectrum as

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90% of code is written by the model,
100% of code is written by the model and

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that's a big difference in productivity.

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Um 90% of the end toend SWE tasks right

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including things like compiling
including things like setting up

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clusters and environments, testing

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features, writing memos. 90% of the

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tasks are written by the models. 100% of
today's SUI tasks are are are written by

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the models. and and even when when
when that happens doesn't mean software

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engineers are out of a job like there's
like new higher level things they can do

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where they can they can manage and then
there's a further down the spectrum like

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you know there's 90% less demand for SWES
which I think will happen but like

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this is this this is a spectrum
and you know I wrote about it in in the

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adolescence of technology where I
went through this kind of spectrum with

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farming um uh uh and so I I actually

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totally agree with you on that it's just
these are very different benchmarks from

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each other but we're proceeding through
them super fast. It seems like in part

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of your vision it's like going from 90

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to 100. Um first it's going to happen

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fast and two that somehow that leads to

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huge productivity improvements.
Um whereas when I noticed even in green

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field projects that people start with
cloud code or something people report

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starting a lot of projects and I'm
like do we see in the world out there a

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renaissance of software all these new
features that wouldn't exist otherwise

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and at least so far it doesn't seem
like we see that and so that does make me

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wonder even if even if like I never had
to intervene on cloud code um there is

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this thing of like there's just
the world is complicated jobs are

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complicated and closing
the loop on self-contained

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systems whether it's just writing
software or something, how much sort of

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how much broader gains we would see just

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from that. And so maybe that makes us
this should dilute our estimation of the

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country of geniuses. >> I well
well I actually I I like I like

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simultaneously

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I simultaneously agree with you agree

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that it's a reason why these things
don't happen instantly, but at the same

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time I think the the the effect is going
to be very fast. So like I don't know

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you could have these two polls, right?

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one is like um you know AI is like you

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know it's not going to make progress
it's slow like it's going to take you

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know kind of forever to diffuse within
the economy right economic diffusion has

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become one of these buzzwords that's
like a a reason why we're not going to

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make AI progress or why AI progress
doesn't matter and and you know the

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other axis is like we'll get recursive
self-improvement you know the whole

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thing you know can't you just draw an
exponential line on the on the curve you

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know it's it's we're going to have you
know Dyson spheres around the sun and

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like you

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you know so many nanconds after uh you
know after after we get recursive I mean

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I'm completely caricaturing the view
here but like you know there there there

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are these two extremes but what we've

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seen from from the beginning you know at

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least if you look within anthropic

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there's this bizarre 10x per year growth

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in revenue that we've seen right so you

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know in 2023 it was like zero to 100
million 2024 it was 100 million to a

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billion 2025 it was a
billion to like 9 or 10

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billion. If you enjoyed this clip, you

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can watch the full episode here
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