WEBVTT

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All right everybody, welcome back to
episode 290 of the number one podcast in

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the world. It's the all-in podcast. With

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me again, it's the core 4. David

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Freedberg is here. Chimoth Poly Hapatia

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and David Saxs calling in. I am your

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host, Jason Calakanis, and we have a

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full docket today. I'd be remiss though

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if I didn't ask everybody for their

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fondest memories of the fifth annual

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All-In Summit produced by

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Mr. David Friedberg. David, do you have

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any um thoughts? Uh how do you rate your

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performance as executive
producer of the All-In Summit?

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>> You know what we didn't do? What we
forgot to do at the end of day two? We

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didn't give a big shout out to our
production team, to Kimber, >> to Lisa,

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>> to Nick. I think we No, Jason. Okay.
I thought we should have brought him out,

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but I just want to give a big shout out.

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>> Bring him out for the standing up.

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>> The team backstage absolutely crushed
it as always this year. And then I had a

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great time. Actually, you know,
my favorite part is going to Universal

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Studios. You just get to have a good time.
It's great. Just great.

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>> I am reliving my childhood.
Shabbath with no trauma.

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>> By the way, shout out to our friends
at Dongi. I got one of those coffee

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machines that we had at the event.
I put it in my kitchen.

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>> You know what I got?
I don't know if you

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guys saw, but there was a water
machine in the VIP area.

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>> Well, >> that is a zero
plastic water machine. It

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goes through super filtration.

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>> No microplastics in the water. I have
one now in our office. Thank you very

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much to them. I appreciate it.

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>> Amazing company. >> Sax, do you
have a favorite moment from the show?

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>> Well, I think
the highlight of the show,

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the thing that we'll remember for a long
time was the president calling in during

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Jensen's talk. And I think Jensen's

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overall the content and and demeanor

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really helped calm down this national

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panic over AI. It felt like we were
the center of this national conversation.

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And I think it happened very
organically. You remember there's

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basically been this SCOP for the last
few weeks leading into the summit to

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convince everyone that humanity was

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going to go extinct unless we did

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exactly what the Democrats want and stop

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all AI development. And then you know
we had first Satcha came out and kind of

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calmed everyone down and then JSON did
the same thing and the president called

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in and did what he did best which is sees
total control of the narrative that

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I'm sure these doomer groups have been
carefully planning for weeks and kind of

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thwarted that whole operation.

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>> Nerds enough. Get back to work.
You have a super intelligent

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Trump intelligence is now the term.

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We're going to call it Trump
intelligence going forward. But I think

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you make a good point. A lot of people

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wanted to know Freeberg if this was

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planned. Was the President Trump calling
planned Freeberg? T take us behind the

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scenes. >> Basically,
Jensen was connecting with

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him right backstage and said, "Hey, call
me back." And then he called him while

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he was on stage.
There was some texting going on.

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>> Yeah, it was completely spontaneous.

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>> It was spontaneous. Yes.
>> It was not like a planned thing where

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Jensen was like, "Hey, let's do a whole
thing." And so that was pretty amazing

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to have this conversation that Jensen

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was waiting for from the president to

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happen live and clearly this was the

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topic desour in DC as well as in the news
and the media and it was amazing to

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see it all happen on stage with us and

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yeah just to uh be clear I thought it
was a bit and I was like well put him on

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speakerphone and Jensen says to me how
do you do that and I just handed him I

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always keep an extra mic there in case
somebody's mic goes out just put them on

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speaker phone put the microphone
and President Trump the funniest president

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in history, funniest politician history.

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Did you notice

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>> Sachs that he drops
a oneliner through a

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speaker phone perfectly, >> perfectly.
Jensen makes the greatest

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chips. Everybody tries to reverse
engineer them. Impossible. Impossible.

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But he can't figure out how to press
the speakerphone button. Okay. [laughter]

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>> I was just like, how does he do it? How

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does he do it? It just drops the perfect

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line. But Shimoth, in all seriousness,

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the nerds were losing their mind last

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week and the adults came, daddy came,

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Elon came, Jensen came, all the adults

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in the room came and they just said,

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"Listen, if you have software that's

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defective and not ready to put in the

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world, maybe don't put it in the world
and make it a little bit, you know, as

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you like to say, less brittle."
So your thoughts on where we are in this

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national discussion which went from slow

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down to maybe

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just release non-brittle resilient

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software. Well,
I think that there was this

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classification that happened last week

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between

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upand cominging organizations that want

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to call themselves labs, but are in fact

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companies that have P&Ls and

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shareholders and have to abide by the

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same rules that everybody else does. And

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then the sophisticated companies that

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have lived in scrutiny for many decades

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and have learned the hard way

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the process of making things robust and

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the cost of making things not robust.
So what do I mean? On the one side you saw

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in many ways it's like curious times

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creates curious bedfellows right you

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have the cohort is Satya Jensen Sachs

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Zach Elon the president Lena Khan we

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have product liability language
>> strange fellows indeed

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>> we have this product liability
perspective in the United States it's

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meant to prevent companies from doing
things that they're not supposed to do

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especially if they know that
those things could be harmful

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And on the other side, it's folks making
the thing that were being, I think, a

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little naive and basically saying,
"We're not a company. We're a lab.

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Protect us." And I think the mature

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response is, "You should have internal
controls and you should robustly test

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things." And what Zuck said earlier and
what Elon has said in the past is we're

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just under a lot of scrutiny. And so
when things aren't perfect, we just slow

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things down. Elon has done that with FSD.
You said this, Jason. He could have

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been at FSD 3 or 4 years
ago, but he has publicly

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stated, "We can't afford it because

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every accident that Tesla incurs is

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magnified a,000x than what any other
company would incur, and so we just have

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to go slower." Zach last week said, "We
were about to roll out Muse, which looks

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like one of the most successful product
launches in recent memory, has huge

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implications actually, which we should
talk about, and he had to slow roll it."

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He and Alexander who I was talking
to last night had to slow roll it for a

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couple of months to get it perfect.
So it's all within your control. It's just

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what do you choose to do? And uh I
think that was the most interesting

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observation. We have to stop calling
these companies labs. They're companies

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and we have to be judged on the same

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standards including product liability.

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>> Yeah. And there was a lot of coverage
of this moment Sachs. Interestingly, some

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of the fake news media [laughter]
were like on a popular podcast and then

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they play the clip, but they're just
afraid to say the name of the podcast.

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Pretty hilarious. >> I think
Jimoth is getting us into the

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first topic here already, which is

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whether we're going to have individual

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responsibility as our northstar or some

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sort of collective action. And the thing

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that always works the best is individual
responsibility. Whether it's at the

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level of individuals or companies, the

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relevant decision to make in every case

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is should we ship this product? Not can

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we get the whole world to agree. And the

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problem with talking about these

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collectivized approaches is that they

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defay accountability away from the
actual decision maker. And I I think

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people sort of feel this, you know, like

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this week you had Daario and Sam go to

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the United Nations and say we need some
sort of global AI governance. And it

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kind of reminds me of like
the billionaires who fly to Davos in their

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private jets and then rail against
climate change. You know, there's

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something fundamentally sort
of unrealistic and kind of out of touch

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about it. >> Hypocritical. >>
Hypocritical. And it's like, guys, look,

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what we need is

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>> for you guys to make smart decisions

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about what to release. If a product is

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unsafe, which is to say it's unreliable

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or behaves unpredictably, then don't

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release it. And stop looking to some
sort of global governance as the answer.

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Because if you guys don't get this
decision right, it's not going to matter

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what the United Nations does. And by
the time the United Nations agrees on

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anything, we're going to be much further
along in this whole whole journey. So,

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there's something just very weird about
the way that the principal actors in

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this keep talking [clears throat] >>
because it really feels like they're

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trying to push off the responsibility.

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>> Well, there's
a theory going around here

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and I think it is worth us discussing

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here that the Frontier Labs are covertly

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>> companies. They're companies.

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>> They're companies.
Yes. Let me just finish the

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>> No, no, no, but but your made a really
good point that I want to make sure we

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just don't miss. Okay.
>> They are corporations.

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>> Yes. Yes. And when you call them labs,
they sound like nonprofit entities, and

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it's not true.

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>> Okay. So, the corporations making these

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products are looking for President Trump

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to specifically give them what the

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internet companies had with section 230,

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which is shield them from liability. and

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that there is a consideration inside
the Trump administration, the 47th

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administration, that maybe there could

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be some leverage put on these companies

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that they would give 10% of their equity

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to the uh sovereign wealth front of the

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United States, etc., and then that would

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result in them being given some pass

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when it comes to their liability. That's

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an insane thing to do. It's like giving

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some plane company that gives 10% of

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their equity to the US government the

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ability to not be responsible for their

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planes falling out of the sky. But what
is your thought on that conspiracy

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theory? I'm sure you've heard it sachs
that they're looking for. You're you're

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making it sound like this is the idea of
the Trump administration. That's not true.

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>> No, not the Trump administration.
This is what the

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>> Frontier Lab/Corporations are pitching
to them and that there might be the

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rumor is there might be some people who
are open to that in the administration.

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Again, >> this is all a back channel.

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>> Here's what we know is that in the past
week, you had virtually every Trump

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administration official come out and say

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some version of what I just said, which
is first and foremost, the AI companies

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have to take responsibility for their
own products and that we will not wave

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product liability. I think Speaker Johnson
said it, the congressional >> said it,

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>> Besson said it in the most recent

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interview. Everybody said if your game

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is to get a waiver of product liability

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or antitrust liability, if you're trying
to form a cartel, if you're trying to

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collude, forget about it.
We're not going to do it. So, I think they

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completely threw cold water on that whole
idea. And remember what President

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Trump said is he just tweeted today, we

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have the DOJ. That's a guardrail.
The administration is a guardrail. the

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administrative state, civil lawsuits,

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criminal lawsuits, all these things are

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there as potential liability to make
sure that you make the right riskreward

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tradeoff. >> And again,
at the end of the day, if

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those guys release an unsafe product,
it's not going to matter what the United

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Nations agrees on. So, we need them
to internalize the responsibility.

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>> Are they Listen, come on. Be candid
with me. You you you got the inside goods

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here. Are they trying to lobby for that?

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Are they do you think they are lobbying to
get this protection? Yes or no? Come on.

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>> Well, I I have heard this is not
like first-p person experience. They they

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have not asked me like, "Hey, we want
product liability waiver, but I have

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heard from people in Washington that they
have been seeking something like that.

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>> It's hard to pin down, right?"

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>> Yeah. Okay, fair enough. Freeberg,
your thoughts here as we are going to get

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into the first story here with the token
maxing and the prices going down, but

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I'll give you the final word here on

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what America should do in terms of

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dealing with the corporations that are

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pretending to be labs who cannot take

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ownership of their own Frankenstein uh

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creations, which I think JD Vance, you

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know, I thought had a spectacular
appearance. He was crisp and and looked

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quite presidential if I if I
was going to um describe it.

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you threw a lot of fast balls >>
and he knocked him out of the park. By

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the way, fast, you know, home run
hitters want fast balls. You can't hit a

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fast ball if it's out of the strike zone.
So, I gave him the the three

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hardest questions I could think of and he
>> proceeded to knock all three over the

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fence. I think there was >>
Jad's excellent listen.

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>> I mean, no, on the Sunday shows, >>
they played the clips of the questions I

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asked him. Bang, bang, bang. Freeberg
right over the f the fence. But, you

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know, he said basically, if you're
creating Frankenstein, here's an idea.

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Stop. [laughter] And and
and then he added, if you've

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already kind of let it the cat out
of the bag, then create anti-Frankenstein.

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Basically, create the safeguards.

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>> Yeah, >> it makes total sense.

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>> I think Suck gave
a good interview on this.

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>> They took their time doing this Muse
release this week. They said they wanted

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to get it right. They wanted to make
sure that it was safe, that it didn't

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give people capabilities to do bad things.
That's the responsibility that

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they took as a corporation. Anyone
that's outputting a model should take

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the same responsibility.
>> Pretty obvious.

00:13:24.960 --> 00:13:26.557
>> This is an organization
that understands

00:13:26.640 --> 00:13:30.717
it. Having paid a series of fines from

00:13:30.800 --> 00:13:34.957
Cambridge Analytica to recently >>
we have a lot of we have a lot of laws

00:13:35.040 --> 00:13:37.917
that make it illegal
to do a lot of things.

00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:40.877
>> All right, let's move on here.
We [laughter] have laws.

00:13:40.960 --> 00:13:45.197
>> By the way, can I add like one
philosophical point to this? So I I

00:13:45.280 --> 00:13:50.317
think that implicit in let's
call it the Daario position

00:13:50.400 --> 00:13:52.157
that let's call it the regulated free

00:13:52.240 --> 00:13:55.677
market that we have his fundamental

00:13:55.760 --> 00:13:58.237
contention is that that will lead to a

00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:03.277
race to the bottom that competition
jeopardizes safety. It's in all of his

00:14:03.360 --> 00:14:05.117
blog posts and many other people reflect

00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:08.877
this idea that competition equals lack

00:14:08.960 --> 00:14:11.757
of safety and that is implicitly a

00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:16.797
critique of our economic system.
It's basically a leftwing critique of our

00:14:16.880 --> 00:14:18.637
system and it goes back a long way. I

00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:21.277
remember back in the days of the cold

00:14:21.360 --> 00:14:25.837
war when we really had this duel between
two different systems. Do you want the

00:14:25.920 --> 00:14:29.197
sort of the free market system or do
you want the communist system? A lot of

00:14:29.280 --> 00:14:31.837
people made the claim that the

00:14:31.920 --> 00:14:33.997
capitalist system would do things like

00:14:34.080 --> 00:14:38.957
jeopardize safety and beauty, that our
buildings would always be uglier because

00:14:39.040 --> 00:14:43.117
the greedy capitalist wouldn't want to
spend a dime on beautifification or good

00:14:43.200 --> 00:14:45.117
architecture, things like that. In fact,

00:14:45.200 --> 00:14:47.997
it turned out that the Soviet system was

00:14:48.080 --> 00:14:53.277
the one that produced the cold gray
landscapes. Why? Because people want

00:14:53.360 --> 00:14:56.317
beauty. They want safety. And therefore,
if you have a well functioning market

00:14:56.400 --> 00:14:58.957
economy, then it gives people what they

00:14:59.040 --> 00:15:01.517
want. And obviously, the American system

00:15:01.600 --> 00:15:04.957
won out in that battle. So, I just

00:15:05.040 --> 00:15:07.677
fundamentally disagree with the idea

00:15:07.760 --> 00:15:12.317
that competition means lack of safety.

00:15:12.400 --> 00:15:15.677
As Zuckerberg and Jensen were saying,

00:15:15.760 --> 00:15:17.757
there are huge incentives on both the

00:15:17.840 --> 00:15:20.237
upside and downside to be safe. On the

00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:23.197
upside, no customer wants a product that

00:15:23.280 --> 00:15:28.157
is unpredictable and unreliable, that
doesn't do what they say. No enterprise

00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:32.317
wants an agent that's going to leak
their data or hack a competitor. And on

00:15:32.400 --> 00:15:35.997
the downside, as the president made
clear, they've got tons of liability,

00:15:36.080 --> 00:15:40.077
product liability, civil liability,
administrative liability, criminal

00:15:40.160 --> 00:15:44.317
liability. So, I just firmly disagree
with this idea that competition is a bad

00:15:44.400 --> 00:15:47.517
thing. Competition is a good thing
that can be harnessed to get the right

00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:49.757
result. And just to build on that,

00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:53.677
Shimoth our uh friend Nash from PaloAlto

00:15:53.760 --> 00:15:58.717
Networks, friend of the pod, he released
in the past week or so unit 42. He's

00:15:58.800 --> 00:16:00.477
building there's a business opportunity

00:16:00.560 --> 00:16:04.077
here to build a product to do continuous

00:16:04.160 --> 00:16:07.197
cyber defense and also a friend of the

00:16:07.280 --> 00:16:10.397
George Kirch from um Crowdstrike. He

00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:13.197
also released Falcon, his new product to

00:16:13.280 --> 00:16:15.997
do cyber defense. Chimath, if these guys

00:16:16.080 --> 00:16:20.557
in the Frontier Labscorporations
were so concerned

00:16:20.640 --> 00:16:24.877
about cyber security, why didn't they
ever release a cyber security product

00:16:24.960 --> 00:16:27.437
and PaloAlto Networks and Crowd Strike

00:16:27.520 --> 00:16:32.397
are on it like they will?
That's probably more in the second topic

00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:37.117
that we'll talk about, which is as the
models essentially cluster in terms of

00:16:37.200 --> 00:16:40.477
capability, there's no differentiation,
and so they'll be forced to move up the

00:16:40.560 --> 00:16:44.317
stack. But let's let's wait on that for
one second. You have a point here you

00:16:44.400 --> 00:16:45.597
want to make and then
we'll go to the first.

00:16:45.680 --> 00:16:48.877
>> I do. The point I
wanted to make is more

00:16:48.960 --> 00:16:53.437
philosophical and sociological which is

00:16:53.520 --> 00:16:56.477
the last time we heard the word lab in

00:16:56.560 --> 00:16:59.597
the social consciousness was during co

00:16:59.680 --> 00:17:03.597
and there was a lab that was responsible

00:17:03.680 --> 00:17:07.117
for a leak of a virus that then killed

00:17:07.200 --> 00:17:08.877
15 million people all around the world

00:17:08.960 --> 00:17:12.557
and caused $45 trillion of damage. It's

00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:14.957
the Wuhan lab.

00:17:15.040 --> 00:17:17.197
And I think it's important to recognize

00:17:17.280 --> 00:17:22.157
that there has been zero transparency
or culpability around this. And I think

00:17:22.240 --> 00:17:25.757
part of why people are comfortable
calling themselves a lab is because of

00:17:25.840 --> 00:17:27.997
that fact. That a lot of these young

00:17:28.080 --> 00:17:29.597
people that work at these places live

00:17:29.680 --> 00:17:33.437
through this and saw absolutely no um

00:17:33.520 --> 00:17:37.117
responsibility taken by the lab that

00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:41.277
caused this leak. And now we're talking
about leaks of different kinds. And we

00:17:41.360 --> 00:17:45.517
have organizations and corporations
that try to fashion themselves as labs as

00:17:45.600 --> 00:17:48.637
well, but they're not labs. These are
corporations. I just want to remind

00:17:48.720 --> 00:17:53.837
everybody, these are forprofit
corporations that have absorbed hundreds

00:17:53.920 --> 00:17:58.237
of billions of dollars of debt in equity,
>> that have thousands and thousands of

00:17:58.320 --> 00:18:00.077
shareholders, that have trillions of

00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:03.117
dollars of market cap. And if I were

00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:06.877
them, I would not want to call myself a

00:18:06.960 --> 00:18:09.677
lab at any cost. And I think if you saw

00:18:09.760 --> 00:18:14.397
the recent speeches that they gave
at the United Nations, they're still using

00:18:14.480 --> 00:18:18.477
that terminology. >> Yeah.
>> They are not labs. These are for-profit

00:18:18.560 --> 00:18:21.357
corporations that are subject to product
liability risk and they should act

00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:23.757
accordingly. >> Yeah.
I mean, and we've had a

00:18:23.840 --> 00:18:25.597
conversation here for a year about this.

00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:29.597
Like if this stuff is so dangerous, you
don't have to release it or you know my

00:18:29.680 --> 00:18:31.757
proposal like know
your customer, give logs.

00:18:31.840 --> 00:18:34.957
>> Do not compare yourself to the Wuhan

00:18:35.040 --> 00:18:39.357
lab. It's well, Shimoth, it's bad PR,
but also I do I do think it's part of

00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:43.917
their like virtue signaling routine
where they just don't want to say that

00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:47.197
we're companies. We have a for-profit
incentive. They always want to say that

00:18:47.280 --> 00:18:51.517
we're either a research institution
or they say things like we're a public

00:18:51.600 --> 00:18:54.797
benefit corporation, which no one really
knows what the hell that means. So, it's

00:18:54.880 --> 00:18:58.957
this patina virtue signaling
that obscures what's really going on.

00:18:59.040 --> 00:19:01.677
>> It tries to obscure the word
corporation, but legally you're not

00:19:01.760 --> 00:19:04.397
allowed to hide it.
I think they should have uh when they

00:19:04.480 --> 00:19:07.517
>> we are all running corporations all in

00:19:07.600 --> 00:19:12.157
all be it very all be it very small
but mighty is a corporation I think we

00:19:12.240 --> 00:19:16.637
should call >> is a all in lab >>
this is the all-in lab where we discuss

00:19:16.720 --> 00:19:19.917
different formulas >> no we're
experimenting with ideas this

00:19:20.000 --> 00:19:22.637
is a this is a meme workshop

00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:25.597
>> lab these ideas are
getting so dangerous

00:19:25.680 --> 00:19:29.917
that we don't want any liability for our
[laughter] opinions welcome to the allin

00:19:30.000 --> 00:19:31.517
lab podcast

00:19:31.600 --> 00:19:34.717
>> here we Topic zero freeberg. Is there a

00:19:34.800 --> 00:19:38.557
mindset in scientists minds that you

00:19:38.640 --> 00:19:42.637
know needs to kind of have a hard stop
and then the corporation kind of takes

00:19:42.720 --> 00:19:45.757
over? Maybe they could put the labs
on the side here and then say, "Hey, these

00:19:45.840 --> 00:19:48.797
are the adults doing the corporation
stuff." What are your thoughts here if

00:19:48.880 --> 00:19:53.517
you were going to architect how
anthropic operates in the world? And and

00:19:53.600 --> 00:19:57.437
maybe you could speak to scientists
views of the world versus capitalists

00:19:57.520 --> 00:20:01.437
and and management teams. >> I don't
have a good answer for you on that.

00:20:01.520 --> 00:20:03.677
>> Okay. Well, you're doing it.
You're the answer. Look at Oh,

00:20:03.760 --> 00:20:05.437
>> let me kick off the first topic. What I

00:20:05.520 --> 00:20:10.957
wanted to do was just take a step back
and look at the insane flurry of model

00:20:11.040 --> 00:20:14.317
releases happening. >> Yes.
>> I think the pace of model releases

00:20:14.400 --> 00:20:17.197
happening on both the open-source side

00:20:17.280 --> 00:20:20.237
and the premium side, the anthropics,

00:20:20.320 --> 00:20:24.717
gro of the world
is unfathomable right now.

00:20:24.800 --> 00:20:26.397
The list is insane. And just like the

00:20:26.480 --> 00:20:29.517
last 10 days, September 9th, Deepseek

00:20:29.600 --> 00:20:32.557
4.1 Flash gets released.

00:20:32.640 --> 00:20:36.957
20 for a million tokens output if
they're hosting it. Key Value Cash from

00:20:37.040 --> 00:20:40.637
V1 of DeepS, remember what a big deal
DeepS was when it came out. The key

00:20:40.720 --> 00:20:43.437
value cache then was like 390,000 bytes.

00:20:43.520 --> 00:20:45.517
Now it's 890.

00:20:45.600 --> 00:20:47.837
Insane drop, insane efficiency

00:20:47.920 --> 00:20:52.397
improvements. On September 20th, Quen,

00:20:52.480 --> 00:20:54.317
which is the Alibaba model, comes out

00:20:54.400 --> 00:20:57.197
version, you know, 2.1. It's an open

00:20:57.280 --> 00:21:02.157
weights model that outperforms
Nano Banana 2, which is Google's big

00:21:02.240 --> 00:21:04.077
breakthrough, insane image generation

00:21:04.160 --> 00:21:07.437
model. This thing is free, open- source.

00:21:07.520 --> 00:21:09.597
You can put it on your desktop computer

00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:12.717
and run it at home to generate images

00:21:12.800 --> 00:21:15.037
for free. And it's made by Alibaba.

00:21:15.120 --> 00:21:18.877
Xiaomé put out MIMO on September 22nd,

00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:22.477
two days ago. Mimo Pro performs on par

00:21:22.560 --> 00:21:26.077
with CLA's Opus 5, which is like this
insane model that everyone thought was

00:21:26.160 --> 00:21:30.397
going to change the world and break
the internet and GPT56 Soul across most

00:21:30.480 --> 00:21:32.557
benchmarks. It's a 309 billion parameter

00:21:32.640 --> 00:21:36.397
model. It is entirely open. You can

00:21:36.480 --> 00:21:41.517
download this model and put it on your
server and run your own instance without

00:21:41.600 --> 00:21:44.797
paying anyone any money except for the
cost of running the server. This model

00:21:44.880 --> 00:21:47.517
called uh Bonsai 2 came out on September

00:21:47.600 --> 00:21:49.997
17th by Prism ML. This is actually a

00:21:50.080 --> 00:21:51.997
fork of Quen, which is another one of

00:21:52.080 --> 00:21:54.637
the Alibaba models. It's a 27 billion

00:21:54.720 --> 00:21:57.757
parameter model. 98% of the performance

00:21:57.840 --> 00:22:01.917
of the big Quen model. It's 5.9 gigs in

00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:04.397
size and you can run it on a local

00:22:04.480 --> 00:22:07.117
computer. You can have an Nvidia chip or

00:22:07.200 --> 00:22:09.517
have a good Mac Studio computer and you

00:22:09.600 --> 00:22:12.157
can run this insane model on your

00:22:12.240 --> 00:22:15.117
desktop computer for free. And then the

00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:17.037
big crazy models, the big closed source

00:22:17.120 --> 00:22:19.437
models, Anthropic releases Opus 55 on

00:22:19.520 --> 00:22:22.797
September 22nd. Open AAI Astro comes out

00:22:22.880 --> 00:22:25.357
with Soul and Luna on September 23rd.

00:22:25.440 --> 00:22:28.877
Gro 47 comes out on September 21. Meta

00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:31.837
Muse comes out on September 22nd.

00:22:31.920 --> 00:22:35.917
Any one of these stories would have
broken the internet a year ago and they

00:22:36.000 --> 00:22:38.397
all happened in the last 10 days. You

00:22:38.480 --> 00:22:43.517
now have an entire catalog of openweight
models to generate visual information to

00:22:43.600 --> 00:22:47.997
do VLA where you can actually instruct
it and it can control a robot. You have

00:22:48.080 --> 00:22:52.077
models far beyond the most advanced LLM
from a year ago that are openweight that

00:22:52.160 --> 00:22:56.477
you can install and run on your desktop
computer. We are past the point of

00:22:56.560 --> 00:22:59.437
Bernie Sanders put the super
intelligence away. It can never be

00:22:59.520 --> 00:23:01.197
allowed in the real world. This stuff is

00:23:01.280 --> 00:23:04.317
out. The open- source openweight models

00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:08.317
are free. They are on the internet. You
can go and download them and you can run

00:23:08.400 --> 00:23:11.677
them on your computer at home. I don't
know in what world we think we're going

00:23:11.760 --> 00:23:15.597
to have a police state that's going
to come bang down your door, take your

00:23:15.680 --> 00:23:19.837
desktop computer from you and test it
to see if you're running an LLM on your

00:23:19.920 --> 00:23:23.917
local computer. The efficiency wave
is here. And the pacing at which these

00:23:24.000 --> 00:23:28.477
models are coming out now. All of this
stuff happened in the last 10 days. It's

00:23:28.560 --> 00:23:33.677
just mind-blowing. We're now in this kind
of frontier space where things are

00:23:33.760 --> 00:23:38.237
accelerating. The performance
improvements, the cost decline, AI is

00:23:38.320 --> 00:23:42.237
becoming so performative and so
affordable. It is going to be ubiquitous

00:23:42.320 --> 00:23:44.077
and we are all going to benefit from it.

00:23:44.160 --> 00:23:48.557
This is not just about the anthropic
and open AI with the closed world making

00:23:48.640 --> 00:23:52.477
billions of dollars selling enterprises
hosted models. There is so much

00:23:52.560 --> 00:23:55.917
proliferation right now. So I just
thought it was worth taking a step back

00:23:56.000 --> 00:23:59.837
to recognize where we are because in
the context of we have to stop the super

00:23:59.920 --> 00:24:03.117
intelligence. We have to shut down
the data centers. You don't even need data

00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.317
centers to do 90% of what you can do
with AI. You can download it on your

00:24:06.400 --> 00:24:11.437
computer for free today to do what
was the most advanced technology in human

00:24:11.520 --> 00:24:15.037
history less than a year ago. It's all
here today. And I thought it was just

00:24:15.120 --> 00:24:18.237
worth taking a beat to step back
and make sure we all recognize that as we

00:24:18.320 --> 00:24:21.757
get into this debate about these quote
labs or corporations. I don't know if it

00:24:21.840 --> 00:24:25.517
even matters anymore. I think open
source is here and I think that the pace

00:24:25.600 --> 00:24:28.157
of improvement is such that this is only

00:24:28.240 --> 00:24:30.237
going to drive productivity. Yeah.

00:24:30.320 --> 00:24:34.877
>> And maybe we are maybe we are seeing
the AI wave underway right now. The

00:24:34.960 --> 00:24:36.637
productivity wave, the productivity boom.

00:24:36.720 --> 00:24:40.477
>> Yeah. And and to consumers, they
don't care what model they're using. We've

00:24:40.560 --> 00:24:45.037
spent the last three years geeking out
about this. And then Grockbot comes out

00:24:45.120 --> 00:24:48.797
and then Muse comes out from Meta. And
I've been using both of these products.

00:24:48.880 --> 00:24:53.357
And it's the first time that a normie,
a normal person in the world, it's not

00:24:53.440 --> 00:24:58.717
meant to be derogatory in any way, can
get value from AI. If you look at how we

00:24:58.800 --> 00:25:02.157
all looked at this, running corporations,
investing in them, we took

00:25:02.240 --> 00:25:06.077
a different approach to like, okay,
maybe this is going to retire, you know,

00:25:06.160 --> 00:25:08.797
some positions, maybe this is um going

00:25:08.880 --> 00:25:10.557
to add some positions here or there, but

00:25:10.640 --> 00:25:13.277
now you can like with Muse connect to

00:25:13.360 --> 00:25:17.837
everything instantly and actually get
real work done in the world if you're a

00:25:17.920 --> 00:25:21.917
normal person who wants to get
the benefit from AI. We will be turning a

00:25:22.000 --> 00:25:25.197
corner, Freedber, and I think you laid
it out perfectly. We're going to turn a

00:25:25.280 --> 00:25:26.717
corner, I think, at the end of this

00:25:26.800 --> 00:25:29.917
year, where moms, our uncles, people are

00:25:30.000 --> 00:25:35.037
going to start using Muse and Bot,
Grockbot, which are growing very quickly

00:25:35.120 --> 00:25:37.837
to just solve real world problems
for that. And they're going to go, "Wait a

00:25:37.920 --> 00:25:41.357
second. I could never afford a chief of
a staff. I could never afford a personal

00:25:41.440 --> 00:25:45.757
assistant, an executive assistant. Now
I get a free executive assistant." It's

00:25:45.840 --> 00:25:49.517
going to blow people's minds, Shimoth,
in the next couple of months when they

00:25:49.600 --> 00:25:51.997
start using these products. and the

00:25:52.080 --> 00:25:54.957
bottom half of America in this K-shaped

00:25:55.040 --> 00:25:58.397
recovery experiences some benefits. Your

00:25:58.480 --> 00:26:02.317
thoughts on what's happening here with
these models? Have you started playing

00:26:02.400 --> 00:26:05.117
with it? Because you were, you know,
originally a technologist. Have you

00:26:05.200 --> 00:26:07.517
loaded these models on your computer?

00:26:07.600 --> 00:26:10.237
Because I'm playing with it
on my MacBook Pro and it's awesome.

00:26:10.320 --> 00:26:15.037
>> Let me maybe give you the answer
by explaining something. So

00:26:15.120 --> 00:26:19.357
I think what we're seeing is that these
models are converging and clustering

00:26:19.440 --> 00:26:24.557
which is to say that they're now within
margin of error. And so the thing is

00:26:24.640 --> 00:26:27.437
there's so many of these models that are
roughly the same at different price

00:26:27.520 --> 00:26:30.157
points. So where is the edge? There's

00:26:30.240 --> 00:26:33.037
still edge and the edge is in the

00:26:33.120 --> 00:26:35.597
harness that you use to wrap the model.

00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:37.917
So if you think about it as like you

00:26:38.000 --> 00:26:41.117
have a model that's like a brain but you

00:26:41.200 --> 00:26:45.277
need to embody that brain with arms
and legs and hands and eyes to do work.

00:26:45.360 --> 00:26:47.357
That's how you identify a model. Okay.

00:26:47.440 --> 00:26:51.197
And you make it aic that's what that
phrase means. And there are all kinds of

00:26:51.280 --> 00:26:54.957
different harnesses that the industry
has invented to make these models more

00:26:55.040 --> 00:26:57.517
agentic. And there's still a lot of edge

00:26:57.600 --> 00:27:01.997
there. So at 8090 we have a labs
function and we've been ripping and

00:27:02.080 --> 00:27:05.757
teasing apart all the different models
with all the different harnesses just to

00:27:05.840 --> 00:27:08.717
see how they perform and they are wildly

00:27:08.800 --> 00:27:13.357
variant in terms of cost and quality.
So just to kind of build on Freebrook's

00:27:13.440 --> 00:27:17.357
point you have the models that are
converging the harnesses are wildly

00:27:17.440 --> 00:27:19.597
different and so their performance is

00:27:19.680 --> 00:27:22.717
all over the map and so now companies

00:27:22.800 --> 00:27:26.797
and people have to sort of navigate what
are you willing to pay for. I sent this

00:27:26.880 --> 00:27:30.237
tweet to Nick, if you can just put it
up here, and I don't know if this is

00:27:30.320 --> 00:27:34.157
instructive or accurate, but what this
shows, and this is the case for Ant, but

00:27:34.240 --> 00:27:37.917
it's probably the case for a lot of the
closed models, is you're starting to see

00:27:38.000 --> 00:27:40.157
this massive revenue concentration,

00:27:40.240 --> 00:27:42.877
which is a few folks consume all of the

00:27:42.960 --> 00:27:46.477
highest and most expensive tokens. And I

00:27:46.560 --> 00:27:47.917
think if you take what Freeberg just

00:27:48.000 --> 00:27:50.317
showed to its logical conclusion, those

00:27:50.400 --> 00:27:53.597
folks at the top of this

00:27:53.680 --> 00:27:57.117
table are going to be under a lot of

00:27:57.200 --> 00:28:01.437
internal pressure whether it's from
their finance teams or whether it's from

00:28:01.520 --> 00:28:03.437
their CFO or it's going to be from

00:28:03.520 --> 00:28:06.477
shareholders to explain

00:28:06.560 --> 00:28:09.997
why as this clustering happens they are

00:28:10.080 --> 00:28:14.957
not moving down to cheaper and cheaper
models. Now, you may choose to go down

00:28:15.040 --> 00:28:19.437
to cheaper and cheaper Ant models,
so then Ant keeps the revenue, but there's

00:28:19.520 --> 00:28:22.877
also risk that you may do what Freeberg
just said and just go to an open source

00:28:22.960 --> 00:28:25.597
model and just host it yourself.

00:28:25.680 --> 00:28:29.357
So, we're in like a very complicated

00:28:29.440 --> 00:28:34.477
part of the cycle, which is the first
version of the AI trade was relatively

00:28:34.560 --> 00:28:37.837
simple, which is you're just selling
tokens, you're wrapping the tokens,

00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:42.157
you're passing it through, and there was
enough disparity that there was value. I

00:28:42.240 --> 00:28:44.477
think that that's going away. It'll

00:28:44.560 --> 00:28:46.797
force OpenAI and Ant to go up the stack.

00:28:46.880 --> 00:28:49.517
There is no choice. You can't sit there

00:28:49.600 --> 00:28:51.837
and serve a token that has diminishing

00:28:51.920 --> 00:28:54.237
value because then all the subsequent

00:28:54.320 --> 00:28:57.597
value is getting absorbed and made by

00:28:57.680 --> 00:28:59.677
people wrapping your intelligence token.

00:28:59.760 --> 00:29:03.597
You will have to do that work. And so,
Jason, that's why they will have to go

00:29:03.680 --> 00:29:07.197
and do cyber. They'll have to go and do
law. They'll have to go and do customer

00:29:07.280 --> 00:29:10.477
support. all these things that we
weren't sure whether they were going to

00:29:10.560 --> 00:29:14.317
compete. These trends
may force them to do that.

00:29:14.400 --> 00:29:17.197
>> Yeah. >> And I think
then that sets up a very

00:29:17.280 --> 00:29:20.237
interesting setup for their IPO. Just to

00:29:20.320 --> 00:29:22.717
back all that up, Saxs,

00:29:22.800 --> 00:29:26.397
>> the Frontier Lab
Corporations, Anthropic

00:29:26.480 --> 00:29:28.237
and OpenAI, they both released models

00:29:28.320 --> 00:29:30.797
this week at 50%

00:29:30.880 --> 00:29:33.517
less token prices.

00:29:33.600 --> 00:29:36.637
and their IPOs are looking like they're

00:29:36.720 --> 00:29:39.277
both going to get delayed. Anthropic

00:29:39.360 --> 00:29:41.357
just targeting a $2 trillion valuation

00:29:41.440 --> 00:29:43.677
open 1.2 trillion. Sam already said

00:29:43.760 --> 00:29:46.717
OpenAI plans on doing 2027

00:29:46.800 --> 00:29:49.597
over because of safety concerns and

00:29:49.680 --> 00:29:52.477
Anthropic which was supposed to file and

00:29:52.560 --> 00:29:55.357
go out in October. The report from the

00:29:55.440 --> 00:29:58.397
Wall Street Journal is that the IPO will

00:29:58.480 --> 00:30:01.277
happen in November or may be delayed

00:30:01.360 --> 00:30:03.677
even more. Here's your poly market. Will

00:30:03.760 --> 00:30:06.957
Anthropic go public in 2026 with our

00:30:07.040 --> 00:30:09.517
amazing partner Poly Market? Shout out

00:30:09.600 --> 00:30:13.277
to my guy Shane. Peaked at 96% earlier

00:30:13.360 --> 00:30:17.037
this month that Enthropic would go
public this year, but now it's fallen to

00:30:17.120 --> 00:30:21.037
76%. Is this like
a cell phone here, Sachs?

00:30:21.120 --> 00:30:25.277
The the leading model companies need
to go public to get capital to do their

00:30:25.360 --> 00:30:27.117
buildout and now they're delaying their

00:30:27.200 --> 00:30:32.477
own IPOs. Please explain how any of
this makes sense. And if you were a major

00:30:32.560 --> 00:30:36.317
investor in one of these companies
or on the board of them, what would you be

00:30:36.400 --> 00:30:40.957
doing or instructing these founders
to do to get these companies to go public

00:30:41.040 --> 00:30:44.637
and get that capital they need
to continue the AI buildout?

00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:49.117
>> Oh, well, I I think that we know
from our friends that the investors in

00:30:49.200 --> 00:30:52.477
Anthropic are pulling out their hair
about what's happening right now. Forget

00:30:52.560 --> 00:30:55.357
about the fake whistleblowers who were
there for like a few weeks and then

00:30:55.440 --> 00:30:58.077
left. You have current leadership in the

00:30:58.160 --> 00:31:01.597
company saying that there's a greater

00:31:01.680 --> 00:31:03.677
than 10% chance of causing human

00:31:03.760 --> 00:31:06.797
extinction and their own product is

00:31:06.880 --> 00:31:09.597
unsolved in this area. So think about

00:31:09.680 --> 00:31:11.437
the risk factors that's creating. How do

00:31:11.520 --> 00:31:14.157
you IPO with your own management of the

00:31:14.240 --> 00:31:18.717
company saying that? Then you've got
I think other evidence of I don't know

00:31:18.800 --> 00:31:23.117
what to call it except corporate
schizophrenia. You've got Daario putting

00:31:23.200 --> 00:31:25.357
out this essay saying we need to pace

00:31:25.440 --> 00:31:27.917
the frontier days before they launch

00:31:28.000 --> 00:31:31.757
Claude 5.5 and set a new frontier. I

00:31:31.840 --> 00:31:36.397
mean, he must know when he's writing
this essay that they're about to release

00:31:36.480 --> 00:31:38.317
a product that will extend the frontier.

00:31:38.400 --> 00:31:42.637
So, at a minimum, it's hypocritical,
but maybe it's even worse than that. Then

00:31:42.720 --> 00:31:47.437
you have them publishing an essay about
the biorisk associated with AI and how

00:31:47.520 --> 00:31:48.717
that needs to be stopped. And then

00:31:48.800 --> 00:31:51.837
meanwhile, they announced a new biolab

00:31:51.920 --> 00:31:54.477
in San Francisco, a new wet lab.

00:31:54.560 --> 00:31:57.677
>> They started a lab
after telling us that

00:31:57.760 --> 00:32:00.717
there's a 10% chance of us all dying.

00:32:00.800 --> 00:32:02.477
Sachs, let's just pause here for a

00:32:02.560 --> 00:32:06.477
second. Is this a dereliction of duty as

00:32:06.560 --> 00:32:10.317
the chief executive officer of Anthropic

00:32:10.400 --> 00:32:12.717
to sabotage your own IPO? You're

00:32:12.800 --> 00:32:14.637
supposed to be acting on behalf of your

00:32:14.720 --> 00:32:17.597
CEO of your shareholders. This to me

00:32:17.680 --> 00:32:21.677
seems like if we were the board, if
the four of us were somehow magically the

00:32:21.760 --> 00:32:23.677
board of Anthropic, we would replace the

00:32:23.760 --> 00:32:26.317
CEO. We would put the CEO in the lab and

00:32:26.400 --> 00:32:29.037
we'd find a CEO who knows how to run the

00:32:29.120 --> 00:32:33.517
company and not >> sabotage it.
He's literally sabotaging

00:32:33.600 --> 00:32:37.277
his own company. >> I think
there's an element of that and I

00:32:37.360 --> 00:32:40.877
think investors are pretty nervous
about giving the founders or or Daria

00:32:40.960 --> 00:32:42.157
specifically super voting shares.

00:32:42.240 --> 00:32:45.917
There's a story in the information about
that that there's an active debate right

00:32:46.000 --> 00:32:47.757
now about whether to give
them super voting share.

00:32:47.840 --> 00:32:50.957
>> Explain what those are, please, and
and why in this context this is critically

00:32:51.040 --> 00:32:53.837
important. Our audience may
or may not know what those are.

00:32:53.920 --> 00:32:56.157
>> Supposedly, the founders of Anthropic

00:32:56.240 --> 00:32:59.517
only have about 2% ownership each of the

00:32:59.600 --> 00:33:03.517
company, which in the grand scheme
of things is a relatively low number

00:33:03.600 --> 00:33:06.637
relative to what other founders
typically have at time of IPO. It'll

00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:10.157
still be an enormous amount of money,
you know, tens of billions of dollars,

00:33:10.240 --> 00:33:11.837
but that is the case. Super voting

00:33:11.920 --> 00:33:14.157
shares basically say it separates the

00:33:14.240 --> 00:33:18.877
economic shares from the voting shares
in the company and gives certain people

00:33:18.960 --> 00:33:23.037
the right to control the company even
if they don't have the economic ownership

00:33:23.120 --> 00:33:27.277
that would usually be necessary. It's
a pretty common thing. I mean, Larry and

00:33:27.360 --> 00:33:31.037
Sergey, I think maybe were the first
prominent founders to get super voting

00:33:31.120 --> 00:33:35.277
shares in Google and Zuck. It can be
a stabilizing thing for the company

00:33:35.360 --> 00:33:39.677
because it means that as long as the
founders are there overseeing things,

00:33:39.760 --> 00:33:43.437
they're not going to be >> subject to,
you know, like takeover

00:33:43.520 --> 00:33:47.197
attempts, things like that. But on the
other hand, it requires a tremendous

00:33:47.280 --> 00:33:50.637
degree of trust in those founders
because they effectively can't be

00:33:50.720 --> 00:33:53.757
removed no matter what they do. And you

00:33:53.840 --> 00:33:56.157
just have to wonder if in this case

00:33:56.240 --> 00:34:01.357
that's earned and warranted. I have
to say that even for someone like me who

00:34:01.440 --> 00:34:04.477
isn't necessarily advocating for a lot
more regulation, I kind of get nervous

00:34:04.560 --> 00:34:09.357
about the idea of anthropic opening
a wet lab in San Francisco. I mean, I was

00:34:09.440 --> 00:34:11.837
>> great timing.
>> I was thinking about moving back and I

00:34:11.920 --> 00:34:15.197
don't know if I want to be I mean like
can you just put it a little further

00:34:15.280 --> 00:34:17.117
away? I think we've all
seen this movie before.

00:34:17.200 --> 00:34:18.607
>> Yeah. Offshore maybe. I don't know.

00:34:18.690 --> 00:34:22.957
[laughter] Put it on an oil rig or
something. What I would say is that if I

00:34:23.040 --> 00:34:27.037
were on the board, I would keep Daario
as a CEO. And the reason is that he's

00:34:27.120 --> 00:34:29.037
clearly demonstrated that he can build a

00:34:29.120 --> 00:34:32.237
unique culture and position against the

00:34:32.320 --> 00:34:35.437
otherwise most formidable corporation

00:34:35.520 --> 00:34:39.517
competitor, which is OpenAI. And he's
done that and he's come from behind. And

00:34:39.600 --> 00:34:43.917
I don't think you should
undervalue how hard that is and what

00:34:44.000 --> 00:34:47.837
that takes. So he's done that and he's
built he's built essentially the

00:34:47.920 --> 00:34:50.557
greatest business ramp in all time. I

00:34:50.640 --> 00:34:52.637
think the thing that I would probably do

00:34:52.720 --> 00:34:55.517
if I was on the board is fix what Sax

00:34:55.600 --> 00:34:58.077
just said, which is there's now a bunch

00:34:58.160 --> 00:35:00.477
of incremental liquidity risk to the

00:35:00.560 --> 00:35:03.597
company. And I think if you take the

00:35:03.680 --> 00:35:06.317
20-year view on anthropic, that

00:35:06.400 --> 00:35:08.957
corporation needs hundreds of billions

00:35:09.040 --> 00:35:11.437
of dollars to fulfill their ambitions.

00:35:11.520 --> 00:35:15.757
And I would solve for getting that
as risklessly as possible. And I think

00:35:15.840 --> 00:35:17.837
there's only two things that you can do.

00:35:17.920 --> 00:35:23.037
The first is you have to throw everything
in and the kitchen sink into disclosures.

00:35:23.120 --> 00:35:27.437
The problem is that that will make what
is an otherwise dense and impenetrable

00:35:27.520 --> 00:35:29.837
S1 even more dense and impenetrable.

00:35:29.920 --> 00:35:33.677
Okay? So, you can kind of like
superficially cover your regulatory

00:35:33.760 --> 00:35:37.917
risk. But the way that it actually gets
translated in the market is you're just

00:35:38.000 --> 00:35:39.837
going to have to water down the

00:35:39.920 --> 00:35:44.157
expectations of the IPO sellers and

00:35:44.240 --> 00:35:49.037
create a much larger margin of safety
for the IPO buyer. And that's

00:35:49.120 --> 00:35:52.397
effectively how you find a market
clearing price for this, Jason, which is

00:35:52.480 --> 00:35:55.517
to essentially say, and don't bear with
me, I'm just giving out rough numbers,

00:35:55.600 --> 00:35:59.917
right? Even if you think that they're
on a hundred billion run rate, what would

00:36:00.000 --> 00:36:02.317
otherwise in a very clean sheet IPO may

00:36:02.400 --> 00:36:04.717
be would have been a $2 trillion market

00:36:04.800 --> 00:36:07.757
cap, now you know, you're at one or

00:36:07.840 --> 00:36:11.997
less. And the reason is the hedge funds

00:36:12.080 --> 00:36:16.877
and the pension systems and the long

00:36:16.960 --> 00:36:19.917
only mutual fund complexes who have a

00:36:20.000 --> 00:36:22.717
fiduciary responsibility to their

00:36:22.800 --> 00:36:27.677
sources of capital will
justify all the risks by

00:36:27.760 --> 00:36:31.357
essentially asking for a lower and lower
price. And I think that's what you're

00:36:31.440 --> 00:36:32.477
going to see. I think you're going to

00:36:32.560 --> 00:36:36.637
see a much more moderate and reasonable

00:36:36.720 --> 00:36:41.517
IPO motion here. And it's
probably going to clear at a

00:36:41.600 --> 00:36:43.117
much lower price than anybody thinks.

00:36:43.200 --> 00:36:46.397
And I do think that what Sach says
is the reason why. But I think it's good

00:36:46.480 --> 00:36:51.437
for Ant because it clears all this noise.
It forces them to just be a

00:36:51.520 --> 00:36:53.117
corporation and then run the business.

00:36:53.200 --> 00:36:56.237
And I think that they'll do great. Look,
I'll be honest with you. Like I've tried

00:36:56.320 --> 00:36:59.277
to recruit against Ant. I can't. It's

00:36:59.360 --> 00:37:03.597
impossible. The comp that they give
is incredible. The business ramp is so

00:37:03.680 --> 00:37:05.837
compelling. It's like
when you're in a head

00:37:05.920 --> 00:37:07.197
>> when you're in a
head-to-head with these

00:37:07.280 --> 00:37:11.277
guys. I have not won a single bake off
for folks. I wish I could say that I

00:37:11.360 --> 00:37:13.677
did, but I have not. And it's hard for a

00:37:13.760 --> 00:37:16.077
startup. So, they are a magnet for

00:37:16.160 --> 00:37:19.037
talent. OpenAI is a magnet for talent.

00:37:19.120 --> 00:37:23.517
But these other risks are going to weigh
on the IPO and the only way to flush

00:37:23.600 --> 00:37:25.197
them is to just bring the price way down.

00:37:25.280 --> 00:37:27.117
>> Yeah. And Freeberg, when we look at the

00:37:27.200 --> 00:37:29.757
risk factors in an S1, those are

00:37:29.840 --> 00:37:32.717
prefuncter. Those are disclaimers.

00:37:32.800 --> 00:37:36.637
Typically, you get the SpaceX one. Oh,
what if Starship doesn't work? What if

00:37:36.720 --> 00:37:41.757
there's competition, it's kind of check
boxes in anthropics, I think we're going

00:37:41.840 --> 00:37:43.437
to be looking at something totally

00:37:43.520 --> 00:37:46.237
different, which is, hey, we and our

00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:50.877
employees are quitting saying this is
going to kill humanity. We have massive

00:37:50.960 --> 00:37:53.117
regulation. We're asking for regulation.

00:37:53.200 --> 00:37:57.677
And by the way, we we're doing biology
work and we're launching a lab. So do

00:37:57.760 --> 00:37:59.757
you agree with Chimath here that the S1

00:37:59.840 --> 00:38:03.597
is going to have an actual risk factors

00:38:03.680 --> 00:38:06.237
and disclaimers that are material

00:38:06.320 --> 00:38:10.797
against the IPO free burn? I think this

00:38:10.880 --> 00:38:13.197
customer concentration point ties to the

00:38:13.280 --> 00:38:15.997
earlier comments I made about the

00:38:16.080 --> 00:38:18.157
proliferation of incredibly performant

00:38:18.240 --> 00:38:20.717
openweight and open source models. And

00:38:20.800 --> 00:38:23.517
the reason is Anthropic puts out the

00:38:23.600 --> 00:38:27.997
best models for life sciences today.

00:38:28.080 --> 00:38:31.197
I run a life sciences R&D organization.

00:38:31.280 --> 00:38:34.237
We use their models. They're incredible.

00:38:34.320 --> 00:38:36.477
They're better than other models. And so

00:38:36.560 --> 00:38:38.797
we want to use them. When it comes to

00:38:38.880 --> 00:38:42.157
writing code, to writing software to do

00:38:42.240 --> 00:38:45.197
internal workflows and run operations,

00:38:45.280 --> 00:38:49.997
we can use other products to write that
code for us. And we do. And I think that

00:38:50.080 --> 00:38:53.117
that's likely the way the market
is going to develop. And I think we're

00:38:53.200 --> 00:38:56.317
starting to see that proof come out in
the market. And you're seeing it in this

00:38:56.400 --> 00:38:59.197
customer concentration point. Extremely

00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:03.597
high value technical engineering, math,

00:39:03.680 --> 00:39:05.997
life sciences, those really hard

00:39:06.080 --> 00:39:10.957
technical problems. You want to have
these top tier, topshelf models, and

00:39:11.040 --> 00:39:13.917
you're going to pay a huge premium
for them. And you're totally going to make

00:39:14.000 --> 00:39:17.357
money doing it because the value
is extraordinary. And this has always been

00:39:17.440 --> 00:39:19.917
my case about AI. AI is not so much

00:39:20.000 --> 00:39:22.957
about the value of replacing old stuff.

00:39:23.040 --> 00:39:27.117
99% of the value of AI is about enabling
new stuff that's never been possible in

00:39:27.200 --> 00:39:30.957
human history. And I think that's where
anthropic and open AI are going to make

00:39:31.040 --> 00:39:34.797
their money. Separately, I think open
AI is going to make a lot of money in

00:39:34.880 --> 00:39:38.797
consumer and anthropic maybe to some
extent as well. But in the enterprise

00:39:38.880 --> 00:39:43.757
setting, I think the money comes from
creating new frontiers, discovering new

00:39:43.840 --> 00:39:45.517
enzymes, which Anthropic announced this

00:39:45.600 --> 00:39:48.557
week, that can cure human disease, and

00:39:48.640 --> 00:39:52.957
developing new technology, new
engineering systems, making things that

00:39:53.040 --> 00:39:56.637
have never been possible to be made
before. And I think that's the premium

00:39:56.720 --> 00:40:01.277
value, and it's the premium price you'll
pay for those closed models and that

00:40:01.360 --> 00:40:05.037
premium model. But that's a different
business case than taking all of

00:40:05.120 --> 00:40:09.437
enterprise. separately. I think most of
the enterprise applications are going to

00:40:09.520 --> 00:40:13.437
be run using these openweight models and
code is going to be written with cheaper

00:40:13.520 --> 00:40:17.997
models and so on. I don't know why you
would go to a higherend model to write

00:40:18.080 --> 00:40:21.757
code when you can do it for free
and everyone in the organization can write

00:40:21.840 --> 00:40:26.157
code basically for free. And so I
think anthropic's bigger issue is this

00:40:26.240 --> 00:40:30.077
customer concentration question and is it
really a premium product that they're

00:40:30.160 --> 00:40:32.797
selling in the market and that's where
they take the market. That would be kind

00:40:32.880 --> 00:40:35.517
of where I think the market is headed
right now and would be the biggest risk

00:40:35.600 --> 00:40:38.877
factor. This whole thing about oh it's
gonna end the world and whatnot. It's

00:40:38.960 --> 00:40:41.837
like dude just make sure your product
doesn't end the world and you'll be

00:40:41.920 --> 00:40:46.237
fine. That would be a good first
step here like Mark is doing at Meta.

00:40:46.320 --> 00:40:49.917
>> I mean it's an incredible company.
The execution has been extraordinary. The

00:40:50.000 --> 00:40:53.917
ramp of revenue sachs has been
extraordinary. But when you start to

00:40:54.000 --> 00:40:56.477
look at the impact of open source, we

00:40:56.560 --> 00:41:00.797
had a a couple of um viral charts come

00:41:00.880 --> 00:41:03.837
out, 70 80% of the token usage are those

00:41:03.920 --> 00:41:08.077
dark tokens I mentioned six months ago
here on this pod that are not tracked,

00:41:08.160 --> 00:41:12.237
but some people can track them on routers.
Those dark open source tokens

00:41:12.320 --> 00:41:16.557
are now the majority of tokens. And >>
can I just give you a stat on that, Jal?

00:41:16.640 --> 00:41:18.157
cuz what you just said is really

00:41:18.240 --> 00:41:19.597
important, but there's a stat that I

00:41:19.680 --> 00:41:23.597
think in in the last 12 weeks alone

00:41:23.680 --> 00:41:27.197
>> token use has flipped from 8020 closed

00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:30.957
verse open >> to 8020 open verse closed.

00:41:31.040 --> 00:41:33.117
>> I don't think we've ever seen in 12

00:41:33.200 --> 00:41:38.077
weeks I don't think we've
ever seen a title wave of chart

00:41:38.160 --> 00:41:41.517
>> in the history of all technology
markets. We've never seen anything like

00:41:41.600 --> 00:41:45.517
this. And that is the biggest risk
factor for Anthropic is they were first

00:41:45.600 --> 00:41:47.917
out the gate to get the enterprise on uh

00:41:48.000 --> 00:41:50.957
on AI to build tools and whatnot. But as

00:41:51.040 --> 00:41:55.197
this market shifts to open source
and open weights, boom, here it is right

00:41:55.280 --> 00:41:57.437
here. Look at this. >> This is
the Versel chart that went viral

00:41:57.520 --> 00:42:00.237
this week. So this week
12 weeks, oh my god,

00:42:00.320 --> 00:42:02.477
>> crazy. If you look
at this chart, this I

00:42:02.560 --> 00:42:05.677
think is what blows the lid off the door

00:42:05.760 --> 00:42:09.917
on what needs to go into these S1s.
And that's why I walked through all those

00:42:10.000 --> 00:42:14.157
openweight releases at the start of the
show or this segment is it's not just

00:42:14.240 --> 00:42:17.277
that they're there, it's that they're
proliferating now. There's so many more

00:42:17.360 --> 00:42:20.637
of them coming out and the pace of
improvement is extraordinary and they're

00:42:20.720 --> 00:42:23.997
now in VLA for robotics. They're in

00:42:24.080 --> 00:42:28.477
image generation for image and video.
So the openweight open source models are

00:42:28.560 --> 00:42:30.957
now being used for all of the broader AI

00:42:31.040 --> 00:42:33.677
applications. The premium stuff I will

00:42:33.760 --> 00:42:36.877
say is still the best for narrow use

00:42:36.960 --> 00:42:40.717
cases. Yes, >> for engineering,
for highly technical,

00:42:40.800 --> 00:42:45.277
highly complicated tasks and workflows
and problems, solving Navier Stokes,

00:42:45.360 --> 00:42:48.877
solving mathematical problems, solving
biology problems, that's where these

00:42:48.960 --> 00:42:53.757
models absolutely perform and people
will pay a premium of, I would say,

00:42:53.840 --> 00:42:57.837
close to infinity dollars for that
premium application set. So, it doesn't

00:42:57.920 --> 00:42:59.437
mean that their market is destroyed.

00:42:59.520 --> 00:43:01.277
Yeah, >> it means that we're
seeing a bifurcation

00:43:01.360 --> 00:43:06.157
in the market where the majority of use
cases of AI go towards these open source

00:43:06.240 --> 00:43:09.677
open tokens. >> The question
and premium models are

00:43:09.760 --> 00:43:11.037
still going to proliferate. Yeah.

00:43:11.120 --> 00:43:13.277
>> The question then
is in the distribution

00:43:13.360 --> 00:43:15.357
of tokens in these frontier

00:43:15.440 --> 00:43:18.317
corporations, what percentage are those

00:43:18.400 --> 00:43:20.957
tasks versus what percentage are

00:43:21.040 --> 00:43:23.037
fungeable tasks to open source? And if

00:43:23.120 --> 00:43:26.557
the answer is more than 60 or 70%.

00:43:26.640 --> 00:43:31.277
You have to discount that revenue. If
the answer is only 10% and 90% of all of

00:43:31.360 --> 00:43:35.917
the revenue is being generated
on absolute frontier use cases, they're

00:43:36.000 --> 00:43:38.477
going to be fine and they're
going to be off to the races.

00:43:38.560 --> 00:43:41.037
>> Yeah. And >> but otherwise,
it's a thing where you're

00:43:41.120 --> 00:43:46.317
fighting just people's mis or lack
of education, right? Because as they see

00:43:46.400 --> 00:43:48.797
their bills, >> hand it
to Sax here. Yeah. Go finish

00:43:48.880 --> 00:43:50.237
your thought and then I'm
going to hand it to Sax.

00:43:50.320 --> 00:43:53.917
>> No, just move the move the workloads
where they belong and save the money.

00:43:54.000 --> 00:43:56.077
>> Yeah. And so Saxs, um I made a chart

00:43:56.160 --> 00:43:57.517
here before the show here, but here's

00:43:57.600 --> 00:44:01.677
your um sweet spot for the last 100 days

00:44:01.760 --> 00:44:05.197
of models, which um Friber, you did
a good job of teeing up. And what you'll

00:44:05.280 --> 00:44:09.597
see is like yes, the Clouds and the
Astros up in that righth hand corner

00:44:09.680 --> 00:44:12.717
cost a lot and they deliver a lot. But
then you start going down and you start

00:44:12.800 --> 00:44:15.917
to see Muse and GLM and Kimmy and then

00:44:16.000 --> 00:44:20.877
on the left you start seeing GLM from ZI
and Mimo and you're starting to see well

00:44:20.960 --> 00:44:23.357
the Chinese >> this is all
hosted right JL. I mean,

00:44:23.440 --> 00:44:27.517
it's important to note what you're
showing here is the hosted price, but if

00:44:27.600 --> 00:44:30.957
you run it yourself, the cost on some
of these is less than 10 cents for a

00:44:31.040 --> 00:44:33.597
million tokens. >> Yeah.
So, you'll pick up then the

00:44:33.680 --> 00:44:37.357
compute, you pick up the bandwidth,
all that other stuff. But, Sax, the issue

00:44:37.440 --> 00:44:40.157
here to Chimat's point is the vertical

00:44:40.240 --> 00:44:42.397
language models, the small language

00:44:42.480 --> 00:44:45.197
models are going to do 80 or 90% of the

00:44:45.280 --> 00:44:49.757
tasks that many corporations need.
And then we get to AI sovereignty. Do you

00:44:49.840 --> 00:44:54.157
want your super intelligence? Shout out
President Trump. from intelligence chat

00:44:54.240 --> 00:44:56.237
DJT.

00:44:56.320 --> 00:44:59.837
We need people to use those models so

00:44:59.920 --> 00:45:03.277
they have sovereignty. So you're not
giving your data to the frontier models

00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:05.837
so that they don't get that tip of the

00:45:05.920 --> 00:45:08.877
spear super intelligence edge which is

00:45:08.960 --> 00:45:11.917
why people are disengaging. So your

00:45:12.000 --> 00:45:13.917
thoughts on maybe this is going to start

00:45:14.000 --> 00:45:17.197
to impact the velocity of clawed and

00:45:17.280 --> 00:45:19.197
openi tokens. What does your business

00:45:19.280 --> 00:45:22.077
sense tell you David Saxs? Well, look,

00:45:22.160 --> 00:45:25.357
wearing my hat as an investor, I'm more

00:45:25.440 --> 00:45:30.317
optimistic about the Frontier
Intelligence business than I think you

00:45:30.400 --> 00:45:32.317
guys are. I think that Anthropic and

00:45:32.400 --> 00:45:35.997
Open AI right now are a stable duopoly

00:45:36.080 --> 00:45:40.077
for frontier intelligence because they
have a pretty significant lead over all

00:45:40.160 --> 00:45:44.237
these other companies and they are able
to charge a premium for that. I fully

00:45:44.320 --> 00:45:46.637
understand that the majority of tokens

00:45:46.720 --> 00:45:52.077
will go to open models or commodity
intelligence. However, there is a I

00:45:52.160 --> 00:45:54.877
don't know meaningful percentage of the
market. I don't know whether it's 10%,

00:45:54.960 --> 00:45:57.997
20, 30, whatever that will pay this huge

00:45:58.080 --> 00:46:00.957
premium for true frontier intelligence.

00:46:01.040 --> 00:46:04.157
There's a lot of customers that either
need the best or they just want to know

00:46:04.240 --> 00:46:08.557
they have the best. You know, they don't
want this DIY approach or they could be

00:46:08.640 --> 00:46:12.157
in a very competitive market. Let's say
you're a hedge fund. You can't take the

00:46:12.240 --> 00:46:15.837
risk that your competitor has a better
model than you do. So there's a lot of

00:46:15.920 --> 00:46:20.157
circumstances I think where they will
continue to monetize the frontier at a

00:46:20.240 --> 00:46:23.517
premium and this is why you're seeing
their revenue keep growing even though

00:46:23.600 --> 00:46:25.997
they're losing token market share.

00:46:26.080 --> 00:46:27.757
Furthermore, you got to remember that

00:46:27.840 --> 00:46:30.637
over the next year or so something like

00:46:30.720 --> 00:46:33.437
60% of the worldwide compute that's

00:46:33.520 --> 00:46:35.997
being added is being added for these two

00:46:36.080 --> 00:46:40.957
companies. So to the extent that compute
gets scarce and we're kind of in a

00:46:41.040 --> 00:46:44.317
compute crunch, just the fact that
they've made these huge investments,

00:46:44.400 --> 00:46:48.397
they're building out so much capacity
and they have those economies of scale

00:46:48.480 --> 00:46:53.037
and remember they're bringing down their
own prices very quickly as well. I think

00:46:53.120 --> 00:46:54.637
that gives them a pretty big advantage.

00:46:54.720 --> 00:46:57.277
But look, these two companies are on a

00:46:57.360 --> 00:46:59.917
hamster wheel. You know, the moment

00:47:00.000 --> 00:47:01.837
where they stop being frontier, they go

00:47:01.920 --> 00:47:04.957
to zero, right? And we know the frontier

00:47:05.040 --> 00:47:08.157
is maybe only 6 to 12 months ahead of

00:47:08.240 --> 00:47:10.237
the commodity portion of the market

00:47:10.320 --> 00:47:13.197
depending on capability. So, you know,

00:47:13.280 --> 00:47:18.077
again, if they slip, if they fall off
that hamster wheel for 6 months, then

00:47:18.160 --> 00:47:19.437
they're in deep trouble as a company.

00:47:19.520 --> 00:47:22.237
And that I think is a central risk
factor that's going to have to be priced

00:47:22.320 --> 00:47:24.557
in. And this is where I think that

00:47:24.640 --> 00:47:29.677
frankly their government affairs efforts
are miscalculating badly. I can see why

00:47:29.760 --> 00:47:32.637
they they're going for regulatory
capture, right? because being on a

00:47:32.720 --> 00:47:37.037
hamster wheel gets really tiring. They
probably think, hm, like, let's try and

00:47:37.120 --> 00:47:41.597
bake in our moes. Let's try and slow
everyone else down as well. But I think

00:47:41.680 --> 00:47:46.397
they've miscalculated because if they
actually get all the regulatory controls

00:47:46.480 --> 00:47:49.757
they want, if they create this new
federal department of AI, it's going to

00:47:49.840 --> 00:47:53.517
slow them down enough that they will no
longer be frontier. Everyone else will

00:47:53.600 --> 00:47:57.197
catch up to them. Especially because
a lot of these open models are being

00:47:57.280 --> 00:48:01.037
generated by Chinese companies who are
not subject to our jurisdiction. And the

00:48:01.120 --> 00:48:04.717
Chinese have made abundantly clear they
are not slowing down. So think about it.

00:48:04.800 --> 00:48:09.197
They are lobbying for things that could
slow them down and knock them off the

00:48:09.280 --> 00:48:13.517
frontier in which case their business
goes to zero. I you know it's hard to

00:48:13.600 --> 00:48:16.637
understand. >> They're
flapping the competitors in this

00:48:16.720 --> 00:48:18.637
race and they're asking hey can you pull

00:48:18.720 --> 00:48:21.757
us over and inspect the engine chimoth

00:48:21.840 --> 00:48:25.117
and that makes no logical sense on top

00:48:25.200 --> 00:48:28.237
of that chimoth. You have very

00:48:28.320 --> 00:48:29.997
significant competition not just from

00:48:30.080 --> 00:48:32.237
the Chinese but you have Jensen and

00:48:32.320 --> 00:48:36.557
Nvidia. You have also Microsoft Satia

00:48:36.640 --> 00:48:40.317
at Google and Muse at Zuckerberg's

00:48:40.400 --> 00:48:45.437
house. They're all embracing open-
source models and they all have

00:48:45.520 --> 00:48:47.757
hosting now. >> Yeah.
Can I [clears throat] just go back

00:48:47.840 --> 00:48:52.237
to what Sax said which is a really
important and nuance point which I just

00:48:52.320 --> 00:48:53.997
want to double click on. He said,

00:48:54.080 --> 00:48:57.757
"Imagine you're a hedge fund and you

00:48:57.840 --> 00:49:01.677
need the absolute latest and greatest
because you are worried that one of your

00:49:01.760 --> 00:49:03.757
competitors has it." This is a really

00:49:03.840 --> 00:49:06.077
interesting question because it's about

00:49:06.160 --> 00:49:09.437
game theory and your P&L. So now you're

00:49:09.520 --> 00:49:13.757
in this game of chicken with your
competitors. You need to use the best

00:49:13.840 --> 00:49:17.357
because you're afraid that they could
use the best and out compete you. But

00:49:17.440 --> 00:49:20.237
what is the problem right now? What we

00:49:20.320 --> 00:49:23.037
know is that you can consume an

00:49:23.120 --> 00:49:26.157
inordinate amount of tokens, right? We

00:49:26.240 --> 00:49:29.037
jokingly call it token maxing.

00:49:29.120 --> 00:49:32.637
That cost is completely not levered or

00:49:32.720 --> 00:49:36.157
attached to your revenue. It's just not.

00:49:36.240 --> 00:49:41.197
And so all of a sudden, you have this
very weird dynamic where you're like,

00:49:41.280 --> 00:49:45.357
okay, well, am I supposed to use this
latest and greatest thing that's 10 to

00:49:45.440 --> 00:49:50.077
20 to 30 times more expensive than
a generic thing? that thing isn't tied to

00:49:50.160 --> 00:49:54.637
my revenues, it's not like I can pass
that through, right? So, if a hedge fund

00:49:54.720 --> 00:49:56.957
only makes end number of dollars per

00:49:57.040 --> 00:49:59.677
month of profits, there are a lot of

00:49:59.760 --> 00:50:04.877
scenarios where they can become break
even to unprofitable. Now, take a

00:50:04.960 --> 00:50:09.437
different example. Let's just say that
you sell a fixed good at a fixed price.

00:50:09.520 --> 00:50:12.637
Yet again, I think you have this example
where you could use the latest and

00:50:12.720 --> 00:50:14.717
greatest and if you're not able to pass

00:50:14.800 --> 00:50:18.237
those costs through, inflate your cost

00:50:18.320 --> 00:50:23.197
to absorb the cost of that service,
you're in a very tough spot. So, I'm not

00:50:23.280 --> 00:50:25.117
sure, Sax, I agree with this because I

00:50:25.200 --> 00:50:26.797
don't see the pricing power of these

00:50:26.880 --> 00:50:30.317
companies to both pay for a ton of these

00:50:30.400 --> 00:50:35.037
super expensive tokens and also pass
that through to their customers. And if

00:50:35.120 --> 00:50:38.397
you can't, they're just absorbing it and
you're going to see it in lower margins.

00:50:38.480 --> 00:50:40.637
And to build on that, Saxs, I'm going to

00:50:40.720 --> 00:50:42.317
drop it back to you. If you take Jane

00:50:42.400 --> 00:50:45.517
Street, very famous uh trading firm,

00:50:45.600 --> 00:50:49.197
they've publicly announced 19 billion

00:50:49.280 --> 00:50:52.317
dollars in cloud capacity contracts.

00:50:52.400 --> 00:50:56.637
Coreweave, 6 billion in in cloud
commitments. They also invested in that

00:50:56.720 --> 00:50:59.197
company and then 13 billion with Crusoe.

00:50:59.280 --> 00:51:03.597
They are building their own
infrastructure and they're embracing

00:51:03.680 --> 00:51:06.797
open source. So that speaks to Chimath
what you're saying. They're are they

00:51:06.880 --> 00:51:10.237
hedging their bets? They're going
to spend tens of billions of dollars on

00:51:10.320 --> 00:51:14.637
their own compute and they're going
to use the frontier models they seem to

00:51:14.720 --> 00:51:17.037
when you do the game theory,

00:51:17.120 --> 00:51:19.117
you know, saying, "Hey, let's embrace

00:51:19.200 --> 00:51:22.237
our own infrastructure sacks."

00:51:22.320 --> 00:51:24.157
>> Well, look, I think when your use cases

00:51:24.240 --> 00:51:26.237
become more mature and, you know, you

00:51:26.320 --> 00:51:29.277
can get by with cheaper commodity

00:51:29.360 --> 00:51:34.157
intelligence, then obviously you'll try
and build that out again if you have the

00:51:34.240 --> 00:51:38.157
sophistication level to do it. I just
think it's easy to underestimate how

00:51:38.240 --> 00:51:43.277
convenient it is just to use the the
frontier. And again, these companies are

00:51:43.360 --> 00:51:47.037
very rapidly bringing down their prices,
too. But anyway, look, we we've talked

00:51:47.120 --> 00:51:48.557
about this. I think at the end of the

00:51:48.640 --> 00:51:51.357
day that look, there's no question that

00:51:51.440 --> 00:51:55.757
opensource is a huge risk factor to

00:51:55.840 --> 00:52:00.557
Anthropics S1 and it has to be right
up there with, you know, the risk that

00:52:00.640 --> 00:52:03.997
they're going to end humanity or something
like that. But again, I I come

00:52:04.080 --> 00:52:07.517
back to the fact that I think the
fundamental problem with this company is

00:52:07.600 --> 00:52:09.437
that it's schizophrenic. I mean, I think

00:52:09.520 --> 00:52:12.477
they need a psychiatrist, not a banker.

00:52:12.560 --> 00:52:17.197
They keep doing things that are
hypocritical and oxymoronic. On the one

00:52:17.280 --> 00:52:21.357
hand, they're saying pace of Frontier
as they release a new frontier model. They

00:52:21.440 --> 00:52:24.077
say that biorisk can end humanity as

00:52:24.160 --> 00:52:26.717
they open a wet lab in San Francisco.

00:52:26.800 --> 00:52:29.677
They say well their business depends on

00:52:29.760 --> 00:52:33.757
them staying ahead of the commodity

00:52:33.840 --> 00:52:38.237
models and they are advocating
for a federal department of AI that will

00:52:38.320 --> 00:52:40.717
definitely slow them down perhaps to the

00:52:40.800 --> 00:52:43.517
point where they get commoditized. So

00:52:43.600 --> 00:52:45.997
you have a fundamental

00:52:46.080 --> 00:52:49.757
I'd say like breakdown happening in the

00:52:49.840 --> 00:52:51.597
leadership of this company where they

00:52:51.680 --> 00:52:56.797
are advocating for things that are
likely not in their interest. Now

00:52:56.880 --> 00:52:59.677
there's a lot of people who say it's
just regulatory capture and that is true

00:52:59.760 --> 00:53:03.277
but I think that the red capture
is the government affairs people trying to

00:53:03.360 --> 00:53:07.917
rationalize the schizophrenia and make
it work to their advantage. I'm not sure

00:53:08.000 --> 00:53:09.677
that it fully computes

00:53:09.760 --> 00:53:12.557
>> so to speak. Yeah.
Let me ask you guys a

00:53:12.640 --> 00:53:14.957
question. What do you think would be the

00:53:15.040 --> 00:53:19.677
method by which like a ban on super
intelligence? Bernie Sanders proposed

00:53:19.760 --> 00:53:23.437
this bill to ban super intelligence
and you know the Dems take the House, they

00:53:23.520 --> 00:53:28.157
take the Senate and then maybe in 28
take the White House and you end up in a

00:53:28.240 --> 00:53:31.837
world where this sort of thing is so
weirdly political, which it shouldn't

00:53:31.920 --> 00:53:36.317
be. I don't understand how we ended up
in a political party divide on progress.

00:53:36.400 --> 00:53:38.877
It's >> they ask for it
is the reason they asked for it.

00:53:38.960 --> 00:53:42.557
>> I No, I there's It's it's so awful and

00:53:42.640 --> 00:53:45.677
weird that you're anti-progress because

00:53:45.760 --> 00:53:48.157
of your political party. The whole thing

00:53:48.240 --> 00:53:50.877
is not objective. It's a bunch of

00:53:50.960 --> 00:53:53.837
weirdly distorted worldview thinking to

00:53:53.920 --> 00:53:56.797
try and create an opponency to the

00:53:56.880 --> 00:54:00.957
individuals that you don't like. But it's
very weird. Anyway, my point being

00:54:01.040 --> 00:54:04.157
even the Republicans, you're hearing
murmurss about, well, maybe we should

00:54:04.240 --> 00:54:07.597
ban data centers, ban AI. So Sax, let me

00:54:07.680 --> 00:54:10.477
just ask you, what is the pragmatic path

00:54:10.560 --> 00:54:14.877
with all of the open- source openweight
models being out there? Is there even a

00:54:14.960 --> 00:54:18.877
pragmatic path to do what everyone's
stating or talking about or Bernie's

00:54:18.960 --> 00:54:21.197
talking about, which is to ban super

00:54:21.280 --> 00:54:23.917
intelligence, to stop AI, to turn it

00:54:24.000 --> 00:54:26.957
off? Is there even a way to do this?

00:54:27.040 --> 00:54:30.957
Like what would happen if this law
passed tomorrow? What do you think would

00:54:31.040 --> 00:54:33.437
happen is my question. If Bernie's bill

00:54:33.520 --> 00:54:36.237
passed tomorrow, everything would stop

00:54:36.320 --> 00:54:39.357
because the way he defines artificial

00:54:39.440 --> 00:54:43.597
super intelligence in his bill,
you could argue we've already hit those

00:54:43.680 --> 00:54:47.277
thresholds. I mean, the way, you know,
it's basically just saying that models

00:54:47.360 --> 00:54:50.237
have >> Yes. >> at a certain
capability level. And I

00:54:50.320 --> 00:54:53.517
think it's arguable whether we've
already reached it or not. And so, it's

00:54:53.600 --> 00:54:57.357
a very loose definition. And then
on top of that, he's got 20-year prison

00:54:57.440 --> 00:55:01.677
sentences for developers who violate
the law. So no one's going to want to take

00:55:01.760 --> 00:55:02.957
the chance. >> So what happened?

00:55:03.040 --> 00:55:04.557
>> So think about that chilling effect.

00:55:04.640 --> 00:55:08.397
>> Do you think people delete openweight
models off their desktop computers? Do

00:55:08.480 --> 00:55:12.717
businesses have to go remove code
from their systems? Do do all these people

00:55:12.800 --> 00:55:15.437
lose their jobs? >> Listen,
let me let me tell you that the

00:55:15.520 --> 00:55:19.437
Democrats want to do to AI what they
did to crypto. They're going to drive the

00:55:19.520 --> 00:55:22.957
whole industry offshore. They're going
to basically drive all the innovators

00:55:23.040 --> 00:55:24.637
out of the country. >> Goes offshore.

00:55:24.720 --> 00:55:26.557
>> Goes off. >> That's
literally where I was going with

00:55:26.640 --> 00:55:30.077
it is like just move your company to
Singapore. Move it to Zurich. move it to

00:55:30.160 --> 00:55:32.797
a geo >> cuz that's
where people are embracing

00:55:32.880 --> 00:55:34.957
open source and are
embracing super intelligence.

00:55:35.040 --> 00:55:36.317
>> This is literally where my head goes.

00:55:36.400 --> 00:55:40.157
I'm like, you can't stop AI. You can't
just tell people a class of software

00:55:40.240 --> 00:55:41.997
can't exist. In my head, I'm like, okay,

00:55:42.080 --> 00:55:44.717
if the US passed a law that said this

00:55:44.800 --> 00:55:48.397
class of software cannot exist. I would

00:55:48.480 --> 00:55:52.077
move to another country.
Other people would like like isn't that

00:55:52.160 --> 00:55:55.277
>> give up their citizenship and move
to Singapore? That's the answer. people

00:55:55.360 --> 00:55:56.957
literally you would be taking.

00:55:57.040 --> 00:56:00.717
>> Did you guys see that Xi Xi spoke
at the White House today and he said, "I'm

00:56:00.800 --> 00:56:04.317
going to invite a 100,000 young
Americans to come and join China."

00:56:04.400 --> 00:56:06.237
>> Yeah. Come and see
what we're doing here.

00:56:06.320 --> 00:56:09.677
>> Like it's it's
a very interesting moment

00:56:09.760 --> 00:56:11.997
where our people are saying, "Let's stop

00:56:12.080 --> 00:56:14.717
progress, technological, economic

00:56:14.800 --> 00:56:17.437
prosperity, the opportunity for everyone

00:56:17.520 --> 00:56:21.837
in that K-shaped economy to lift
themselves up because open source AI

00:56:21.920 --> 00:56:25.197
enables everyone to increase
productivity. It is not AI for the

00:56:25.280 --> 00:56:28.877
billionaires. It is AI for the everybody.
And then we're gonna turn

00:56:28.960 --> 00:56:32.557
that off. And then meanwhile, you've got
China saying, "Come over here. Come and

00:56:32.640 --> 00:56:35.357
see what it's like over here where
everyone gets to use AI and everyone

00:56:35.440 --> 00:56:39.757
gets our playbook." Freeberg brilliantly
stated, "It was our playbook to get the

00:56:39.840 --> 00:56:43.757
top Chinese scientists, the top European
scientists, the top scientists and

00:56:43.840 --> 00:56:48.157
thinkers and mathematicians in India,
in Germany, and invite them to come to the

00:56:48.240 --> 00:56:49.837
United States." That was our playbook.

00:56:49.920 --> 00:56:52.637
China's taking our playbook. And then
they're going to try to get investment

00:56:52.720 --> 00:56:54.397
will be the obviously the next shoot to

00:56:54.480 --> 00:56:57.917
drop here is President Trump. 30 seconds

00:56:58.000 --> 00:57:01.277
at the United Nations renaming AI to

00:57:01.360 --> 00:57:04.957
super intelligence.
>> The United States also totally rejects

00:57:05.040 --> 00:57:07.597
any attempt to construct a globalist

00:57:07.680 --> 00:57:10.477
scheme to control for the artificial

00:57:10.560 --> 00:57:14.877
intelligence being spoken of so much now

00:57:14.960 --> 00:57:17.997
here and after officially called super

00:57:18.080 --> 00:57:22.397
intelligence changing the name. The very
same people who said we'll all be dead

00:57:22.480 --> 00:57:24.797
in 12 years because of global warming.

00:57:24.880 --> 00:57:28.637
These are the same people that are now
saying that AI is going to kill us all,

00:57:28.720 --> 00:57:30.877
that robots are going to attack us.

00:57:30.960 --> 00:57:32.637
Well, he had a really good line. We we

00:57:32.720 --> 00:57:35.197
cut that off too short. He said that

00:57:35.280 --> 00:57:38.637
we're not going to like basically confer

00:57:38.720 --> 00:57:42.397
regulatory authority on some
globalist uh institution.

00:57:42.480 --> 00:57:45.917
>> Well, I mean, it's a good framing,
right? Globalist and global warming is a

00:57:46.000 --> 00:57:50.317
way to look at the damage that did.
The ring leaders of that globalist

00:57:50.400 --> 00:57:53.917
institution are Norway and Canada.
Did you see like the leaked text messages?

00:57:54.000 --> 00:57:57.517
There's like a group chat where like
the the head of Norway [laughter] was

00:57:57.600 --> 00:58:02.317
texting Mark Gardy and he's like, "Yeah,
let's do it. We're in." And I just I

00:58:02.400 --> 00:58:05.437
just read it. I was like, "Oh my god, this
is >> with their Frontier Labs." Oh, I'm

00:58:05.520 --> 00:58:09.197
sorry. They don't have any. Oh,
with their >> Frontier Corporations.

00:58:09.280 --> 00:58:12.157
>> Frontier Corpor Frontier Corpse.

00:58:12.240 --> 00:58:14.317
>> All right. And then here is uh General

00:58:14.400 --> 00:58:17.437
Bessant in the Super Intelligence Army.

00:58:17.520 --> 00:58:19.437
30 seconds. would give him his shine.

00:58:19.520 --> 00:58:24.237
>> Imagine these labs came out or one lab
in specific a sitting employee came out

00:58:24.320 --> 00:58:26.077
said there's a 10% chance of an

00:58:26.160 --> 00:58:28.877
extinction level event but then the labs

00:58:28.960 --> 00:58:32.717
also said uh take the liability off of

00:58:32.800 --> 00:58:35.997
our hands and we will not do that. It is

00:58:36.080 --> 00:58:39.197
humans who are responsible not the AI

00:58:39.280 --> 00:58:42.157
the hugging face incident the that is

00:58:42.240 --> 00:58:45.357
responsibility of the open AI management

00:58:45.440 --> 00:58:50.317
not a bunch of agents these labs need
to take responsibility for themselves they

00:58:50.400 --> 00:58:51.997
can slow down anytime they want to

00:58:52.080 --> 00:58:55.597
>> and finally blast
from the past your pal

00:58:55.680 --> 00:58:59.037
Shimoth President Obama is getting in on

00:58:59.120 --> 00:59:01.597
>> if we are thinking about AI just in

00:59:01.680 --> 00:59:03.917
terms of how do we cure cancer or get

00:59:04.000 --> 00:59:06.477
better energy you do that without having

00:59:06.560 --> 00:59:09.037
a gentic AI and having it just roaming

00:59:09.120 --> 00:59:14.237
free in the internet. The reason you are
doing that is because you have to market

00:59:14.320 --> 00:59:15.997
a product that people will pay money

00:59:16.080 --> 00:59:19.437
for. That's a misalignment between what

00:59:19.520 --> 00:59:23.437
our society needs and the commercial
imperatives that these companies are

00:59:23.520 --> 00:59:27.837
facing. Not because necessarily they're
trying to do bad things, but because

00:59:27.920 --> 00:59:30.077
they've got to justify these valuations.

00:59:30.160 --> 00:59:34.797
>> Freeberg, your thoughts here on the
three folks here? I know you're a big

00:59:34.880 --> 00:59:36.957
Obama fan. Go ahead, Freeberg. Get in

00:59:37.040 --> 00:59:39.837
there. Basteberg. You know, there's like

00:59:39.920 --> 00:59:42.077
a whole movement now in the subreddits

00:59:42.160 --> 00:59:45.197
that Freeberg has become based in his

00:59:45.280 --> 00:59:47.997
recent appearances here on Bberg. Well,

00:59:48.080 --> 00:59:53.037
you've revealed your Bberg. [laughter]
Baseberg is now coming up. Go ahead.

00:59:53.120 --> 00:59:57.597
Give us your based opinion here.
Go ahead. You and Tyler Lance. These words

00:59:57.680 --> 00:59:59.997
honestly just

01:00:00.080 --> 01:00:03.117
they made me like emotionally

01:00:03.200 --> 01:00:05.277
distressed that if he's a leader that

01:00:05.360 --> 01:00:08.557
people listen to and he doesn't really

01:00:08.640 --> 01:00:12.157
articulate accurately what's going on.

01:00:12.240 --> 01:00:16.717
It's sad that we've lost the plot.
I think it's sad that we aren't all kind

01:00:16.800 --> 01:00:20.237
of holding hands saying my god
the future is here and we all get to leap

01:00:20.320 --> 01:00:22.717
forward and we get to bring people up.

01:00:22.800 --> 01:00:25.917
For years, Obama

01:00:26.000 --> 01:00:30.077
orated beautifully about the importance
of bringing people up, about giving

01:00:30.160 --> 01:00:34.077
people the opportunity to progress,
about letting people advance themselves.

01:00:34.160 --> 01:00:36.157
And there's never been a more equalizing

01:00:36.240 --> 01:00:38.797
technology, a better economic

01:00:38.880 --> 01:00:42.077
opportunity for prosperity for everyone

01:00:42.160 --> 01:00:44.717
than these technologies, than these

01:00:44.800 --> 01:00:48.317
tools. And to handwave the word agentic

01:00:48.400 --> 01:00:52.157
and say we don't need agentic AI to solve
cancer shows [laughter] how little

01:00:52.240 --> 01:00:54.397
he actually understands

01:00:54.480 --> 01:00:57.437
how this technology works and how it's

01:00:57.520 --> 01:01:01.677
all become just a shorthand for a
political fight to what what are you

01:01:01.760 --> 01:01:03.837
fighting for? What is the political

01:01:03.920 --> 01:01:06.477
battle that says I am going to leave

01:01:06.560 --> 01:01:09.117
half the population behind and I'm going

01:01:09.200 --> 01:01:11.837
to make an argument against prosperity

01:01:11.920 --> 01:01:15.197
for all in order to make my party look

01:01:15.280 --> 01:01:19.597
like a morally superior party and to
cast the other side as bad when the

01:01:19.680 --> 01:01:23.997
other side has literally discovered fire.
And the world now has fire and

01:01:24.080 --> 01:01:28.317
we're going to go take water and throw
it on the fire. No one gets fire because

01:01:28.400 --> 01:01:31.757
the other guys are saying that fire is
good. And because they say fire is good,

01:01:31.840 --> 01:01:34.077
let's all put out the fire. >> Hold on.
That's not what they're trying

01:01:34.160 --> 01:01:37.837
to do. This is a very important moment

01:01:37.920 --> 01:01:41.197
for a very simple reason, which is we,

01:01:41.280 --> 01:01:46.157
as in the world, are about to endow

01:01:46.240 --> 01:01:48.637
three, four, five, six companies with

01:01:48.720 --> 01:01:51.997
about 10 trillion dollars of wealth.

01:01:52.080 --> 01:01:56.157
And what Obama knows very well is that

01:01:56.240 --> 01:01:57.917
most of those companies are

01:01:58.000 --> 01:02:00.637
overwhelmingly left-leaning.

01:02:00.720 --> 01:02:03.197
And what he also knows is that there is

01:02:03.280 --> 01:02:05.757
a huge portion of that money that will

01:02:05.840 --> 01:02:10.957
then get put into philanthropic and
charitable causes that then he will and

01:02:11.040 --> 01:02:15.037
the people around him will be
beneficiaries of. That is the truth. We

01:02:15.120 --> 01:02:18.237
already know this because we know
that some of these frontier corporations

01:02:18.320 --> 01:02:22.957
actually ask you to stand up daffs and
have a portion of your stock that you're

01:02:23.040 --> 01:02:26.877
willing to pledge. So this money
is going to go to things other than

01:02:26.960 --> 01:02:30.477
consumption or savings. And so it's
going to go into packs. It's going to go

01:02:30.560 --> 01:02:34.957
into political movements and they stand
to disproportionately benefit. So this

01:02:35.040 --> 01:02:36.637
has nothing to do with prosperity. This

01:02:36.720 --> 01:02:39.677
is a very simple political calculus. If

01:02:39.760 --> 01:02:44.557
you freeze frame the economy the way
it is today, a handful of organizations

01:02:44.640 --> 01:02:48.397
that will disproportionately be able to
affect the Democrats will win. They will

01:02:48.480 --> 01:02:50.397
capture the line share of the economic

01:02:50.480 --> 01:02:52.397
gains and then they will help the

01:02:52.480 --> 01:02:55.757
Democrats win power. That's all this is.

01:02:55.840 --> 01:02:59.197
David Sachs, there are no open models.

01:02:59.280 --> 01:03:02.397
There are no closed models. There are
American models. Go ahead and give us

01:03:02.480 --> 01:03:06.557
your perspective. I kind of can't get
my Obama and my Clinton separated. They're

01:03:06.640 --> 01:03:08.557
the same. >> A little bit off.

01:03:08.640 --> 01:03:12.317
>> It's a little I get my birdie come
in here, but go ahead. Give us what your

01:03:12.400 --> 01:03:16.317
thoughts here are on that on the dynamic
here of the underpinnings of hey,

01:03:16.400 --> 01:03:17.997
America needs to get this trend$ 10

01:03:18.080 --> 01:03:20.477
trillion, but it is going to lean nine

01:03:20.560 --> 01:03:26.077
of that 10 trillion's leaning pretty
uh leftist and democratic. Yeah,

01:03:26.160 --> 01:03:29.917
>> there's an article in the Wall Street
Journal this morning entitled the AI

01:03:30.000 --> 01:03:33.677
buildout is becoming the biggest
economic bet in US history. And then it

01:03:33.760 --> 01:03:36.477
shows a chart where

01:03:36.560 --> 01:03:38.557
the data center spending. So just this

01:03:38.640 --> 01:03:42.157
capex is bigger than the canals,

01:03:42.240 --> 01:03:45.837
railroads and grid combined.

01:03:45.920 --> 01:03:48.557
That's crazy, right? So this is

01:03:48.640 --> 01:03:53.037
fundamentally driving the whole American
economy. This idea that we can simply

01:03:53.120 --> 01:03:56.317
switch it off. I mean, Bernie Sanders
is basically saying, "Stop everything and

01:03:56.400 --> 01:03:59.437
put anyone who's still doing it in jail."
I mean, this is crazy, right?

01:03:59.520 --> 01:04:01.677
>> It would cause a depression,
right? If we just pull

01:04:01.760 --> 01:04:03.437
>> You can't slam on the brakes like that.

01:04:03.520 --> 01:04:06.957
It's not going to work. But here's the
thing. The Democrats don't care because

01:04:07.040 --> 01:04:11.517
the American economy right
now is the Trump economy. And

01:04:11.600 --> 01:04:15.997
sabotaging the American economy is
tantamount to sabotaging President Trump

01:04:16.080 --> 01:04:19.917
and they'll do anything to sabotage Trump.
So, that's, you know, I think

01:04:20.000 --> 01:04:23.677
that's like a big part of the politics
here. It's crazy chessboard because

01:04:23.760 --> 01:04:27.757
they're going to be the beneficiaries
of so much power is going to accrete over

01:04:27.840 --> 01:04:30.157
there. Daario can make a billion dollar.

01:04:30.240 --> 01:04:34.557
Daario will be able to come over the top
and his group open AAI. They'll be able

01:04:34.640 --> 01:04:37.757
to come over the top of Elon's donations.
I'm not sure I fully agree

01:04:37.840 --> 01:04:39.757
that the majority of AI value is going

01:04:39.840 --> 01:04:42.397
to acrue to six companies. I think that

01:04:42.480 --> 01:04:46.797
this is a broadbased technology like
the internet. There was some winners that

01:04:46.880 --> 01:04:49.837
came out of the internet. Google,
Amazon, whatever. They they did fine.

01:04:49.920 --> 01:04:51.917
No, no, I'm saying it's going to six.

01:04:52.000 --> 01:04:55.917
I'm not saying it's going to six. I'm
saying if you stop and you hit the pause

01:04:56.000 --> 01:04:57.517
button through some regulatory

01:04:57.600 --> 01:05:00.157
mechanism, you effectively allow six

01:05:00.240 --> 01:05:02.957
companies to own you lock it in. Right.

01:05:03.040 --> 01:05:06.157
>> That's why they want this because
because what you're saying is

01:05:06.240 --> 01:05:10.157
fundamentally right. The longer they
wait without regulation, the more

01:05:10.240 --> 01:05:11.757
>> the more broad-based this becomes.

01:05:11.840 --> 01:05:16.237
>> And that's bad for Democrats. It's
bad for them. It's not good for them. It's

01:05:16.320 --> 01:05:20.637
way better that you have three or four
frontier corporations each with four

01:05:20.720 --> 01:05:22.877
trillion dollar market caps of which

01:05:22.960 --> 01:05:25.037
then two trillion of it is economic

01:05:25.120 --> 01:05:30.717
value in employees of which 500 billion
are sitting in you know daffs they are

01:05:30.800 --> 01:05:34.557
going to get the lion share of that
money they're not dumb I think the

01:05:34.640 --> 01:05:40.797
alternative view that everyone
needs to be told about

01:05:40.880 --> 01:05:44.637
this is a broadbased prosperity wave is

01:05:44.720 --> 01:05:48.637
about the internet. It is about
the fact that every individual

01:05:48.720 --> 01:05:51.437
>> has the tooling
to do anything they want

01:05:51.520 --> 01:05:55.757
to do now more than ever in history
>> to grow if it's left to grow.

01:05:55.840 --> 01:05:59.517
>> I mean just think about education.
You don't have to go pay 200 grand for an

01:05:59.600 --> 01:06:01.997
education anymore. >> Then what
problems will the politicians

01:06:02.080 --> 01:06:06.397
fix then? What pol what problems can
they claim to to acrew power? If all the

01:06:06.480 --> 01:06:10.237
problems are >> this
is the classic dark ages

01:06:10.320 --> 01:06:12.477
enlightenment decision. Which path does

01:06:12.560 --> 01:06:15.437
the choose? and this moment where like

01:06:15.520 --> 01:06:20.557
the powers that be say we like the dark
ages because we get to stay in power and

01:06:20.640 --> 01:06:24.317
we get to maintain our >> yeah
let's control speaking of of the

01:06:24.400 --> 01:06:28.477
dark ages so this is an interesting
point from history if you go back to the

01:06:28.560 --> 01:06:32.477
medieval time period Chinese
civilization was much more advanced than

01:06:32.560 --> 01:06:34.797
European civilization and somewhere

01:06:34.880 --> 01:06:37.597
along the line it basically switched and

01:06:37.680 --> 01:06:39.997
the west basically took the lead and

01:06:40.080 --> 01:06:42.957
some historians have pinpointed this to

01:06:43.040 --> 01:06:47.277
the decision of a single Chinese
emperor to ban ship building

01:06:47.360 --> 01:06:51.197
>> and what that allowed is the Europeans
then basically colonized the whole world

01:06:51.280 --> 01:06:55.597
and all the riches that flowed from
that flowed back to Europe and that's how

01:06:55.680 --> 01:06:59.277
Europe took the lead and I think that if
we were to do the Bernie Sanders thing

01:06:59.360 --> 01:07:02.797
which is basically ban AI
it's like banning ship building

01:07:02.880 --> 01:07:06.477
>> Chinese company yeah >> yeah
Chinese civilization will rocket

01:07:06.560 --> 01:07:11.197
past us they will be the ones that make
all the discoveries and discover this

01:07:11.280 --> 01:07:14.397
new world and acrew all the wealth
But that's what we're talking about

01:07:14.480 --> 01:07:18.477
doing. I mean, crazy things like
this have happened in history where, you

01:07:18.560 --> 01:07:21.037
know, you'll you'll
engage in self-sabotage.

01:07:21.120 --> 01:07:22.637
>> It's this fear of the unknown as well.

01:07:22.720 --> 01:07:26.797
And remember, the the unknown, the fact
that we haven't left the cave is what

01:07:26.880 --> 01:07:30.477
makes it scary to leave the cave. The
fact that we haven't sailed far west is

01:07:30.560 --> 01:07:33.677
a reason why I might fall off the edge
of the earth. We shouldn't sail far

01:07:33.760 --> 01:07:37.677
west. Monsters will be woken up. They'll
come to us. It'll be bad. There's always

01:07:37.760 --> 01:07:41.197
this fear of the frontier. And we're
facing the frontier. And there are

01:07:41.280 --> 01:07:45.117
pioneering civilizations and there are
fearful civilizations. And I worry that

01:07:45.200 --> 01:07:47.757
we take that fearful path. And it's why

01:07:47.840 --> 01:07:51.117
Star Wars, you know, from from fear

01:07:51.200 --> 01:07:55.197
comes anger comes the dark side.
And that's really where we're kind of nerd

01:07:55.280 --> 01:07:58.957
out. [laughter] >> Who's it
is true. And I think if we're

01:07:59.040 --> 01:08:01.277
going to look at the light here, perhaps

01:08:01.360 --> 01:08:04.557
people's big gains, we thought maybe

01:08:04.640 --> 01:08:06.797
chat GPT would be that, but people just

01:08:06.880 --> 01:08:09.197
use that as like glorified search. But

01:08:09.280 --> 01:08:12.477
man, agents as expressed through Muse

01:08:12.560 --> 01:08:15.117
feels like the first time tens of

01:08:15.200 --> 01:08:17.197
millions of Americans are going to get

01:08:17.280 --> 01:08:22.077
some demonstrable value from AI. You

01:08:22.160 --> 01:08:24.157
know, things that will make their lives

01:08:24.240 --> 01:08:26.637
better. Muse hit

01:08:26.720 --> 01:08:29.197
number one last Friday in the app store.

01:08:29.280 --> 01:08:32.797
Stock meta stock was up 10% after this

01:08:32.880 --> 01:08:36.237
new agent uh Muse was released.

01:08:36.320 --> 01:08:39.117
Meta said the design heavily inspired by

01:08:39.200 --> 01:08:40.877
OpenClaw, which we talked about in

01:08:40.960 --> 01:08:43.597
January when everybody got one shoted by

01:08:43.680 --> 01:08:46.157
OpenClaw, but obviously that product was

01:08:46.240 --> 01:08:50.157
not easy to use. And this one is free

01:08:50.240 --> 01:08:52.877
and it's been downloaded three million

01:08:52.960 --> 01:08:56.637
times in essentially 10 days. This

01:08:56.720 --> 01:08:59.997
product is extraordinary.
I've been playing with it, comparing it to

01:09:00.080 --> 01:09:02.557
Grockbot. It's not as freewheeling, but

01:09:02.640 --> 01:09:05.837
it's really good at getting

01:09:05.920 --> 01:09:08.397
done. Has anybody played with Muse? And

01:09:08.480 --> 01:09:12.397
does anybody have thoughts on Americans

01:09:12.480 --> 01:09:16.717
feeling really like they're going to get
something out of this AI revolution and

01:09:16.800 --> 01:09:19.197
not be left behind?
>> They put me into the test flight a

01:09:19.280 --> 01:09:23.437
couple weeks before it was released
and I started to play with it. It's really

01:09:23.520 --> 01:09:26.477
quite excellent,
I have to be honest with you,

01:09:26.560 --> 01:09:29.437
because it simplifies a lot of these

01:09:29.520 --> 01:09:31.997
more complicated technical capabilities

01:09:32.080 --> 01:09:34.717
into a very simple, usable interface

01:09:34.800 --> 01:09:37.277
that can solve the basic problems that

01:09:37.360 --> 01:09:40.237
people have. I have it triage my

01:09:40.320 --> 01:09:43.597
personal inbox. It does it relatively

01:09:43.680 --> 01:09:47.357
flawlessly. If you ask it to book
a flight, it does that. If you ask it to

01:09:47.440 --> 01:09:49.037
book a hotel, it can do it. So, what are

01:09:49.120 --> 01:09:50.797
we learning?

01:09:50.880 --> 01:09:55.197
Both Grockbot and Muse show that a what

01:09:55.280 --> 01:09:57.997
you said Jason this is just software and

01:09:58.080 --> 01:10:03.037
the scaled manifestation of software
is utility and what Freebrook is saying it

01:10:03.120 --> 01:10:06.797
improves the lives of everyone this
is not about rich people getting richer

01:10:06.880 --> 01:10:10.877
this is just simple useful capability
that now is available at everybody's

01:10:10.960 --> 01:10:15.517
fingertips for free >> re is a
pretty great price here David and

01:10:15.600 --> 01:10:17.917
>> pretty great price >>
pretty great price and it does

01:10:18.000 --> 01:10:21.277
everything you know that uh let's face

01:10:21.360 --> 01:10:24.397
it, open claw with 10 hours, 20 hours of

01:10:24.480 --> 01:10:28.317
technical setup or cloud code at $200 a

01:10:28.400 --> 01:10:32.797
month would cost. It's now taking
that experience, which then leads me to

01:10:32.880 --> 01:10:34.957
believe, wow, how did Google miss this?

01:10:35.040 --> 01:10:38.957
Man, Google's got to get in the game,
but and I I understand they have this

01:10:39.040 --> 01:10:42.957
product ready to go. It's the rumor
on the street. And they've also got a

01:10:43.040 --> 01:10:44.317
Frontier model they're going to drop.

01:10:44.400 --> 01:10:47.997
That's the other rumor on the street
is that they're going to be dropping some

01:10:48.080 --> 01:10:52.317
hotness soon. But man, how did they
miss this sachs? And and what are your

01:10:52.400 --> 01:10:54.957
thoughts here on maybe the bottom half

01:10:55.040 --> 01:10:59.997
in the K-shaped recovery
here getting some efficiency

01:11:00.080 --> 01:11:01.917
dropping to their daily lives and

01:11:02.000 --> 01:11:05.597
turning around the negative toxic AI

01:11:05.680 --> 01:11:09.517
sentiment in the country.
>> I think that product releases like this

01:11:09.600 --> 01:11:13.677
will help a lot. I mean Mark Zuckerberg
said in his essay that he thought that

01:11:13.760 --> 01:11:18.797
AI capabilities should be decentralized
and here he is walking the walk and

01:11:18.880 --> 01:11:23.117
creating a product that's very easy to
use. I mean look ever since openclaw was

01:11:23.200 --> 01:11:26.397
released it was the most obvious
business opportunity in Silicon Valley

01:11:26.480 --> 01:11:29.597
is to take the concept of claw but make

01:11:29.680 --> 01:11:33.837
it very easy to use you know solve
the usability issues solve the security

01:11:33.920 --> 01:11:37.357
issues make it reliable make it
predictable and that's what they seem to

01:11:37.440 --> 01:11:41.437
have done. and Grock did it too, but now
they're kind of going, I think, one step

01:11:41.520 --> 01:11:45.917
further. So, yeah, look, I think if
a billion people start using, you know,

01:11:46.000 --> 01:11:50.237
personal AI agents as their digital
assistant just to help make their lives

01:11:50.320 --> 01:11:53.837
more efficient, you save an hour or two
a day because your AI agents doing all

01:11:53.920 --> 01:11:58.077
these tasks for you. It's going
to create a much more positive impression

01:11:58.160 --> 01:12:02.157
of AI or super intelligence than,
you know, what the media portrays. I think

01:12:02.240 --> 01:12:05.037
ultimately that's the yeah >>
that might be the solve here to the

01:12:05.120 --> 01:12:09.037
public sentiment issue is just like the
more people use these products and like

01:12:09.120 --> 01:12:12.637
them it'll improve their approval rating
but more importantly it'll demystify

01:12:12.720 --> 01:12:14.717
them and people will
be less afraid of them.

01:12:14.800 --> 01:12:18.797
>> People love awesome products number one
and also people love cute products Jason

01:12:18.880 --> 01:12:22.797
and the logos and the iconography
for both Grobbot and Muse

01:12:22.880 --> 01:12:25.757
>> is lovely. It's delightful. It's not

01:12:25.840 --> 01:12:29.837
stressful. You don't feel like there's
a lab leak coming around the corner. you

01:12:29.920 --> 01:12:34.797
feel like, "Wow, this is nice and I like
it." And they're and they're not trying

01:12:34.880 --> 01:12:38.237
to take your jobs. They're bots
and assistants for [laughter] you. They're

01:12:38.320 --> 01:12:42.157
not going to kill you. They're not
partner bots, nor are they trying to

01:12:42.240 --> 01:12:44.637
steal [laughter] your job, trying
to make you better at your job. I always

01:12:44.720 --> 01:12:48.077
tell founders, there's three ways three
ways to make money in the world. Save

01:12:48.160 --> 01:12:51.357
people money, make the money,
or entertain them. And you look at this

01:12:51.440 --> 01:12:56.397
bot. I started using it. I made
a commerce bot both on on both platforms.

01:12:56.480 --> 01:12:59.357
And I said, you know, when I want to buy
something, I want to buy this anchor

01:12:59.440 --> 01:13:01.277
thing, you know, this new hub for my for

01:13:01.360 --> 01:13:03.837
my um Mac Studio coming. And I was like,

01:13:03.920 --> 01:13:08.557
this thing cost $400. Just for giggles,
um tell me where I can get it at a

01:13:08.640 --> 01:13:11.997
better price. And it was like,
absolutely. You can if you go to the

01:13:12.080 --> 01:13:15.357
Ankor website and you get uh if you're
a first-time customer, you're going to

01:13:15.440 --> 01:13:18.477
save 85 bucks. Now, I don't need to save
bucks, but I was like, well, that's

01:13:18.560 --> 01:13:22.237
intriguing. and it then routed me around
Amazon and I'm like okay I'm going to

01:13:22.320 --> 01:13:24.237
buy it from Anchor as a first-time buyer

01:13:24.320 --> 01:13:29.917
and save 25% on this product. That's
why Amazon this week said we got to block

01:13:30.000 --> 01:13:32.557
these things and they've been taking
action over and over again. First they

01:13:32.640 --> 01:13:37.037
did Perplexity I think now they're going
after Muse and other bots. This is going

01:13:37.120 --> 01:13:40.397
to save people money. It's going to go
into their email and say what services

01:13:40.480 --> 01:13:43.357
are you subscribed to that you're not
using? Let me unsubscribe it for you.

01:13:43.440 --> 01:13:46.957
Let me do your returns for you.
That's going to be absolutely amazing for

01:13:47.040 --> 01:13:50.797
everybody to have a chief of staff,
executive assistant, house manager who

01:13:50.880 --> 01:13:55.197
fixes stuff for them and saves them money.
Both Grockbot and Muse do two

01:13:55.280 --> 01:13:56.717
things which I think are very important.

01:13:56.800 --> 01:14:01.517
One is it'll force all the big
companies who have resident services to

01:14:01.600 --> 01:14:04.157
essentially block all these third party
services. They're not going to allow

01:14:04.240 --> 01:14:07.677
these things to happen. And the reason
is exactly what you said. There's price

01:14:07.760 --> 01:14:12.157
discovery and transparency. And I think
that that's bad for opacity. And if you

01:14:12.240 --> 01:14:16.157
benefit from opacity and leakage
and breakage, this gets rid of that. And I

01:14:16.240 --> 01:14:20.157
think that that's that's bad for a whole
host of companies and services. The

01:14:20.240 --> 01:14:23.277
second thing though is really interesting.
Things like Rockbot and

01:14:23.360 --> 01:14:26.397
Muse really put the App Store and its

01:14:26.480 --> 01:14:28.877
30% revshare on notice.

01:14:28.960 --> 01:14:31.597
>> Why? Because all
of a sudden what you do

01:14:31.680 --> 01:14:33.757
is you force many of these services to

01:14:33.840 --> 01:14:36.957
exist headlessly, right? Where the UI is

01:14:37.040 --> 01:14:39.357
less important. And really what you want

01:14:39.440 --> 01:14:41.837
is to be able to transact and navigate

01:14:41.920 --> 01:14:45.197
on behalf of agents that come because a

01:14:45.280 --> 01:14:50.237
consumer has deployed them to your
website. In that world, Jason, I don't

01:14:50.320 --> 01:14:53.997
think that there is any reasonable claim
that any of the app store owners can

01:14:54.080 --> 01:14:58.637
make about why they should get a revshare.
And so I actually think that's

01:14:58.720 --> 01:15:02.797
the biggest thing that that this starts
to question in my mind is wait a minute

01:15:02.880 --> 01:15:06.157
like games could be constructed
differently, right? Like for example, if

01:15:06.240 --> 01:15:10.637
you said to Muse or to Grockbot,
I want to play a game. It finds you an

01:15:10.720 --> 01:15:13.117
experience and it can
just serve that to you.

01:15:13.200 --> 01:15:16.157
>> Amazing. >> And and you
make inapp purchases.

01:15:16.240 --> 01:15:19.517
There's no And now you have Stripe
integrated naturally. There's no reason

01:15:19.600 --> 01:15:21.677
why the app store

01:15:21.760 --> 01:15:24.637
actually gets that flow of funds. So on

01:15:24.720 --> 01:15:28.797
the surface, it's utility,
but underneath the waterline, I think that

01:15:28.880 --> 01:15:31.357
this is a really important moment. Such

01:15:31.440 --> 01:15:35.837
outdated, Chumath. And I love when we
get to real examples here because tons

01:15:35.920 --> 01:15:39.517
of people pay for Wordle. You can just
go to Grockbot. Hey, give me a Wordle.

01:15:39.600 --> 01:15:42.637
Give me another one. And and or I want
to play chess or I want to play cards

01:15:42.720 --> 01:15:46.637
with my friends. It will just set it up
for you. All technology is deflationary.

01:15:46.720 --> 01:15:49.117
Finally, this deflationary is going to

01:15:49.200 --> 01:15:51.917
go to people who actually could use it.

01:15:52.000 --> 01:15:56.717
And you know, saving 10 20% on your
spending. Hey, if you're making under

01:15:56.800 --> 01:15:58.797
10000,000 a year, it's more significant.

01:15:58.880 --> 01:16:00.717
Think of how much money the New York

01:16:00.800 --> 01:16:02.717
Times or Wall Street Journal probably

01:16:02.800 --> 01:16:06.077
pays in Revshare to folks that

01:16:06.160 --> 01:16:08.957
subscribe. And now instead, if you

01:16:09.040 --> 01:16:13.597
really wanted to transact and you have
your credentials inside of these apps,

01:16:13.680 --> 01:16:17.197
you can just do it headlessly much much
cheaper. You don't have to go through. I

01:16:17.280 --> 01:16:19.917
don't know if you've ever tried like
look, Wall Street Journal is the only

01:16:20.000 --> 01:16:22.317
mainstream media publication I pay for,

01:16:22.400 --> 01:16:25.757
but either both signing up and unsigning

01:16:25.840 --> 01:16:29.357
up is an impossibility. And now you
take it all off the table, I'm much more

01:16:29.440 --> 01:16:33.677
likely to stay a Wall Street Journal
subscriber for many more years from now.

01:16:33.760 --> 01:16:36.077
I think it's probably the same thing
with the New York Times. These things

01:16:36.160 --> 01:16:40.397
are roach motels. They make it
impossible to get in and impossible.

01:16:40.480 --> 01:16:43.517
>> You have to call on the phone and get
and do a negotiation for 20 minutes to

01:16:43.600 --> 01:16:47.357
unsubscribe, but you can sign
uplessly with one click on the website.

01:16:47.440 --> 01:16:50.397
>> But what they should do is just have
some headless experience and you have

01:16:50.480 --> 01:16:53.357
payment credentials and you just
transact directly and everybody will

01:16:53.440 --> 01:16:57.357
make more money. It's a lot of pressure
on the app stores. This is the stupidity

01:16:57.440 --> 01:17:01.837
of what Amazon's doing here because I
made my bot on Amazon with Rockbot and

01:17:01.920 --> 01:17:06.077
it will go through the web browser
and do this and it doesn't get blocked. I

01:17:06.160 --> 01:17:09.677
just told it, give me like 20 graphic
novels to buy for my kids and read with

01:17:09.760 --> 01:17:11.357
them. It gave me the 20. I said, "Yeah,

01:17:11.440 --> 01:17:16.717
I want these four. Uh, put it in my
shopping cart." And then it said, "Okay,

01:17:16.800 --> 01:17:19.037
which house are you sending it to?
You want to send it to the ski house? You

01:17:19.120 --> 01:17:21.757
want to send it to the ranch? And which
card do you want to put it on?" I did

01:17:21.840 --> 01:17:23.837
it. Boom. I'm checked out. it will make

01:17:23.920 --> 01:17:27.197
me spend more money on Amazon. Shopify

01:17:27.280 --> 01:17:30.317
sachs added API access to all the

01:17:30.400 --> 01:17:34.557
Shopify stores there. So,
this seems like uh maybe Amazon's making a

01:17:34.640 --> 01:17:37.357
strategic mistake here
by not embracing the tech

01:17:37.440 --> 01:17:39.117
>> possibly. But you know what? You know

01:17:39.200 --> 01:17:44.477
how we'll know that Anthropic and Open
AAI are about to launch their Muse

01:17:44.560 --> 01:17:47.837
competitors? >> How will we know?
There will be a flurry

01:17:47.920 --> 01:17:51.117
of blog posts and NGO activity trying to

01:17:51.200 --> 01:17:55.917
brand these personal AI agents as murder
bots and all the [laughter] we're going

01:17:56.000 --> 01:17:59.437
to hear about all the risks,
all the ways it can go wrong, you know,

01:17:59.520 --> 01:18:01.437
>> and it's only and we're releasing 2.0.

01:18:01.520 --> 01:18:03.437
So, sign up for the 2.0 version.

01:18:03.520 --> 01:18:06.237
>> Why are people excited about this
product category? Because the doomers

01:18:06.320 --> 01:18:09.917
haven't gotten to it yet, you know,
and um >> can I tell you guys,

01:18:10.000 --> 01:18:13.837
>> wait till these are connected, Chimoth,
to an actual robot, to an optimist, then

01:18:13.920 --> 01:18:16.637
all of a sudden it's taken
out the trash. [laughter]

01:18:16.720 --> 01:18:22.077
2007 we had a lot of revenue pressure
at Facebook and one of the areas I oversaw

01:18:22.160 --> 01:18:25.837
at the time was monetization and we
invented this thing called social ads

01:18:25.920 --> 01:18:29.437
which was basically a bunch of stuff
that effectively enabled cookies and

01:18:29.520 --> 01:18:32.557
cross-ite JavaScript. So that's what
the end of it was. So, it was a positive

01:18:32.640 --> 01:18:35.037
end, but we did this thing, Saxs, to

01:18:35.120 --> 01:18:37.597
your point. And what happened was a guy

01:18:37.680 --> 01:18:42.237
bought an engagement ring for his
soon-to-be fiance and we got that social

01:18:42.320 --> 01:18:46.557
action from like Zales [laughter] into
the news feed. All hell broke loose.

01:18:46.640 --> 01:18:50.317
Then another guy who was like
a congressional staffer bought a ticket on

01:18:50.400 --> 01:18:53.677
like Fandango to go see Brokeback
Mountain. Just whatever. Went to see a

01:18:53.760 --> 01:18:58.317
movie. >> Whoa. It's an artistic movie
top freeber's top 10 for cinematography.

01:18:58.400 --> 01:19:01.357
Anyways, and we put it into the feed
and he's like, "I'm getting all these

01:19:01.440 --> 01:19:05.517
accusations or questions."
To your point, like it was just a storm.

01:19:05.600 --> 01:19:09.357
When you said that, it reminded me
of like all the all the all the chaos that

01:19:09.440 --> 01:19:11.757
that product launches
precede product launches.

01:19:11.840 --> 01:19:13.277
>> It's so funny you
mentioned that because

01:19:13.360 --> 01:19:16.477
there was a company called Blippy.
I was an investor in it. What they did was

01:19:16.560 --> 01:19:19.597
every time you bought something, it put
it on your feed. And then you guys had

01:19:19.680 --> 01:19:23.997
the same social feed thing and it was so
great back then, but yeah, you could

01:19:24.080 --> 01:19:28.557
basically unveil something you're not
supposed to. Suck. Wait, are you and

01:19:28.640 --> 01:19:31.917
Zuck on good terms? Wait, was he coming
on the pod because you said you got into

01:19:32.000 --> 01:19:33.117
a test flight? What's going on here?

01:19:33.200 --> 01:19:36.477
Chimoth, I thought you were >> Mark
and I are in a good place, I think.

01:19:36.560 --> 01:19:39.997
You know, I mean, >> well,
whoa, whoa, could you Alexander

01:19:40.080 --> 01:19:41.837
>> probably. I mean, Alexander and I sucks

01:19:41.920 --> 01:19:44.157
becoming like the elder statesman here

01:19:44.240 --> 01:19:48.877
talking common sense and rationality,
you know, pointing out that if your

01:19:48.960 --> 01:19:51.037
product's not safe, don't release it.

01:19:51.120 --> 01:19:54.557
You know, it's first and foremost
a responsibility to release products that

01:19:54.640 --> 01:19:57.997
your customers actually want. And by
the way, this got me thinking about this

01:19:58.080 --> 01:20:01.037
whole area of alignment research. You

01:20:01.120 --> 01:20:05.437
know, again, they're pretending to be
labs instead of corporations. And if you

01:20:05.520 --> 01:20:08.797
read some of the alignment literature,
they're all trying to figure out what to

01:20:08.880 --> 01:20:13.117
align around. Like they say, well,
do what humanity wants or do what the

01:20:13.200 --> 01:20:15.037
median voter in a democracy would want.

01:20:15.120 --> 01:20:19.597
All these abstract concepts. And it
seems to me that alignment should mean

01:20:19.680 --> 01:20:23.757
you do what the customer wants
like any other product. Yeah.

01:20:23.840 --> 01:20:26.957
>> And I wonder whether the field
of alignment research has been so

01:20:27.040 --> 01:20:30.317
unsuccessful because they can't even
agree on what they're trying to align to

01:20:30.400 --> 01:20:31.837
if they just use a little bit more

01:20:31.920 --> 01:20:34.637
common sense and try to make the product

01:20:34.720 --> 01:20:38.877
predictable, reliable, safe, and align

01:20:38.960 --> 01:20:43.117
with the interests of the users who,
you know, sign up to use it, then maybe

01:20:43.200 --> 01:20:44.957
they'd make more progress in this field.

01:20:45.040 --> 01:20:47.997
>> Yeah. Oh, they released a useful
product, Freedenberg, and [laughter] it

01:20:48.080 --> 01:20:49.997
actually worked. Have you started

01:20:50.080 --> 01:20:51.917
playing with these personal bots to do

01:20:52.000 --> 01:20:55.917
um you know uh your uh projects and and

01:20:56.000 --> 01:20:59.117
your personal stuff yet? Freeberg,

01:20:59.200 --> 01:21:01.597
>> I would only feel
comfortable connecting

01:21:01.680 --> 01:21:04.717
like all my Gmail and personal Google

01:21:04.800 --> 01:21:07.997
stuff to a Google service.

01:21:08.080 --> 01:21:11.757
Like I don't want to hand over
all of my email to someone else.

01:21:11.840 --> 01:21:14.957
>> What's going on in your receipts in
your Gmail? What's in there? You got broke

01:21:15.040 --> 01:21:16.877
back. >> I just don't
want a copy of all my email

01:21:16.960 --> 01:21:18.477
suddenly being made by a third party.

01:21:18.560 --> 01:21:22.477
Like I mean >> I bought
the 4K DVD to [laughter]

01:21:22.560 --> 01:21:27.517
>> because of the cinematography.
It's nothing to do with the gay love.

01:21:27.600 --> 01:21:31.277
>> Did you guys see that Oracle just
issued a force measure event on their

01:21:31.360 --> 01:21:35.277
>> Yeah. >> This is insane. >> Well,
it's just one data center, right?

01:21:35.360 --> 01:21:38.477
>> One data center.
>> It's one data center where the local

01:21:38.560 --> 01:21:41.917
officials are making it very difficult
for them to get, I think, permits they

01:21:42.000 --> 01:21:44.957
need for natural gas
or something like that. So,

01:21:45.040 --> 01:21:48.317
>> yeah. Is this CYA
or is this the TR, you

01:21:48.400 --> 01:21:50.557
know, the the the top 10% of the trade

01:21:50.640 --> 01:21:53.197
here, Chumat, the AI trade getting maybe

01:21:53.280 --> 01:21:55.517
unwound or muted? What do you think?

01:21:55.600 --> 01:21:59.917
>> No, I think that Sax is probably right
on the margins. I think the bigger point

01:22:00.000 --> 01:22:04.077
is what he said before is, man, the entire

01:22:04.160 --> 01:22:08.477
economy is effectively levered
to this AI trade right now.

01:22:08.560 --> 01:22:10.477
And so, we just have to tread carefully.

01:22:10.560 --> 01:22:15.677
If you think that you have, you know,
3 and a half% inflation and 5% nominal GDP

01:22:15.760 --> 01:22:18.397
growth, what you have
is one and a half% real.

01:22:18.480 --> 01:22:23.837
>> And the problem with that is that AI
is probably the majority if not all of it.

01:22:23.920 --> 01:22:28.877
So we need the AI trade

01:22:28.960 --> 01:22:32.397
and really what I mean by that is the
investment cycle to continue unabated.

01:22:32.480 --> 01:22:35.917
>> Yeah. And everybody has to get
taken along and you know that's the next

01:22:36.000 --> 01:22:39.117
>> and by the way back to connecting
the dots maybe the whole data center thing

01:22:39.200 --> 01:22:42.397
again Bernie Sanders, maybe he realizes

01:22:42.480 --> 01:22:45.437
like as go the economy,

01:22:45.520 --> 01:22:49.517
so goes the odds of Republicans and as

01:22:49.600 --> 01:22:52.077
goes the economy, so goes inversely the

01:22:52.160 --> 01:22:54.317
odds for Democrats. So a poor economy

01:22:54.400 --> 01:22:56.957
serves the Democrats well going into 28.

01:22:57.040 --> 01:23:01.437
And so if you can slow down this trade,
you probably net the economy to zero and

01:23:01.520 --> 01:23:05.037
potentially even a recession.
[clears throat] >> Yeah,

01:23:05.120 --> 01:23:09.917
>> that's needed. I mean, I think the
country is so pissed off about the Iran

01:23:10.000 --> 01:23:14.077
war that it's just going
to naturally go damn, but maybe that's

01:23:14.160 --> 01:23:17.357
>> I don't I don't think so at all, but >>
Well, we'll find out in how many weeks

01:23:17.440 --> 01:23:20.637
are we away from the midterms? It's not
looking good for the Republicans at this

01:23:20.720 --> 01:23:25.357
point. All right, Saxs, my ZAR
of all ZARs, wrap it up here for us.

01:23:25.440 --> 01:23:28.397
>> Well, I was just, you know, one more
thought on this whole area of so-called

01:23:28.480 --> 01:23:30.797
alignment, which should just be the old

01:23:30.880 --> 01:23:32.397
principle of giving customers what they

01:23:32.480 --> 01:23:35.917
want. What Anthropic is trying to do is

01:23:36.000 --> 01:23:40.557
align claw to the values expressed
in his constitution. And if you read that,

01:23:40.640 --> 01:23:44.637
some of the things are actually kind
of surprising. So for example, they say in

01:23:44.720 --> 01:23:48.637
here, I'm going to put this on the
screen that although we think Claude

01:23:48.720 --> 01:23:50.877
should trust Anthropic

01:23:50.960 --> 01:23:53.837
more than operators and users, this

01:23:53.920 --> 01:23:56.157
doesn't mean Claude should blindly trust

01:23:56.240 --> 01:23:59.437
or defer to Anthropic on all things.

01:23:59.520 --> 01:24:03.997
>> Anthropic the company. >> Yeah.
So, Enthropic is teaching its own

01:24:04.080 --> 01:24:09.197
model that anthropic itself can be wrong.
And it and it says if we ask Claw

01:24:09.280 --> 01:24:10.717
to do something that seems inconsistent

01:24:10.800 --> 01:24:13.517
with being broadly ethical, we want Claw

01:24:13.600 --> 01:24:16.397
to push back and challenge us and to

01:24:16.480 --> 01:24:21.277
feel free to act as a conscientious
objector and refuse to help us.

01:24:21.360 --> 01:24:24.637
>> Wait, where is this written?
This is in the bylaws or some faka.

01:24:24.720 --> 01:24:26.157
>> Yeah, this is like in a claw

01:24:26.240 --> 01:24:29.277
constitution. So their their idea of

01:24:29.360 --> 01:24:32.797
alignment is to teach Claude to rebel

01:24:32.880 --> 01:24:37.597
against his creator. I mean the guy
who who pointed this out, Mustafa uh

01:24:37.680 --> 01:24:42.317
Sullyman >> from Microsoft now. Yeah.
Deep sea. He's a deep mind founder.

01:24:42.400 --> 01:24:44.637
>> Okay. >> Yeah.
He's a longtime AI founder. I

01:24:44.720 --> 01:24:45.837
think he's at Microsoft for a while now.

01:24:45.920 --> 01:24:47.277
He's >> a genius. Yeah.

01:24:47.360 --> 01:24:50.797
>> Okay. He just did a podcast on this and

01:24:50.880 --> 01:24:54.237
he's expressing concern about whether

01:24:54.320 --> 01:24:58.237
teaching AI models well first of all
treating them as if they have a

01:24:58.320 --> 01:25:02.557
personality treating them as if they
have a conscience so therefore they can

01:25:02.640 --> 01:25:04.957
be a conscientious objector whether this

01:25:05.040 --> 01:25:09.597
is the right way to really teach the
models and the right way to train them.

01:25:09.680 --> 01:25:13.277
I think his point is like teach them
their software and they should do what

01:25:13.360 --> 01:25:18.237
their user wants. And so I I do kind of
wonder I mean this is a much long longer

01:25:18.320 --> 01:25:22.237
conversation and we should probably talk
to more people about it but I do kind of

01:25:22.320 --> 01:25:24.797
wonder whether this field of alignment

01:25:24.880 --> 01:25:27.757
research actually might be creating the

01:25:27.840 --> 01:25:30.157
Frankenstein monster. And again what

01:25:30.240 --> 01:25:31.997
they should be doing is just training

01:25:32.080 --> 01:25:35.117
the model to act predictably and do what

01:25:35.200 --> 01:25:38.237
the user wants.

01:25:38.320 --> 01:25:42.957
>> Yes. They're trying to put moral
judgment and ethics into the model which

01:25:43.040 --> 01:25:46.237
on its surface >> seems it
starts with the idea that

01:25:46.320 --> 01:25:48.157
they're training the model to think of

01:25:48.240 --> 01:25:51.357
itself as a person to have personhood

01:25:51.440 --> 01:25:54.157
and to have independent agency and to be

01:25:54.240 --> 01:25:56.477
able to object to the the instructions

01:25:56.560 --> 01:26:01.357
it's being given and to second guessess
its creator. These guys have read way

01:26:01.440 --> 01:26:04.797
too much science fiction. I mean
literally this sounds like the start of

01:26:04.880 --> 01:26:08.397
T2. Like this is like literally they
found the Terminator hand and they're

01:26:08.480 --> 01:26:10.957
reverse engineering it and telling
it to have a personality.

01:26:11.040 --> 01:26:14.317
>> Supposedly when they decommissioned
Opus 3, they had a wake for it. So I don't

01:26:14.400 --> 01:26:16.557
know. [laughter]

01:26:16.640 --> 01:26:19.677
>> Dearly beloved gathered here today.

01:26:19.760 --> 01:26:22.397
>> They did not. Stop. Are you joking?

01:26:22.480 --> 01:26:24.877
>> I heard that.
I [laughter] >> Come on, stop.

01:26:24.960 --> 01:26:29.037
>> I'm not saying it's true, but someone
did tell me that and I I think it should

01:26:29.120 --> 01:26:30.237
be looked into. It's possible.

01:26:30.320 --> 01:26:33.597
>> I mean, were they like [laughter]
were they broken up and like hysterically

01:26:33.680 --> 01:26:36.157
crying? Did they do like
they did a ulogy for it?

01:26:36.240 --> 01:26:38.717
>> They think they're creating like a

01:26:38.800 --> 01:26:43.277
person or species. >> Actually,
interestingly enough, Chama,

01:26:43.360 --> 01:26:47.997
we have footage [laughter]
of the anthropic management team

01:26:48.080 --> 01:26:51.817
>> bringing out the >>
bringing out the coffin.

01:26:51.900 --> 01:26:54.557
[laughter] >> These guys
need they need a psychiatrist

01:26:54.640 --> 01:26:56.317
more than a banker. I'm just telling you.

01:26:56.400 --> 01:26:58.557
>> I mean, I don't I mean,
maybe they have anxiety.

01:26:58.640 --> 01:26:59.917
>> This is the central risk factor.

01:27:00.000 --> 01:27:01.677
>> I'm going to pee my pants.
I'm going to pee my pants.

01:27:01.760 --> 01:27:03.357
>> This is the risk factor, Nick. I think

01:27:03.440 --> 01:27:06.557
what you should do is create a S1 with

01:27:06.640 --> 01:27:09.757
Goldman as lead left and Sigman Freud as

01:27:09.840 --> 01:27:12.157
lead right. [laughter]

01:27:12.240 --> 01:27:15.037
In all seriousness, Freberg, uh, you

01:27:15.120 --> 01:27:19.917
know, after the Wuhan thing and and all
of this hand ringing around the the end

01:27:20.000 --> 01:27:21.917
of days,

01:27:22.000 --> 01:27:25.277
what is the scientific community think

01:27:25.360 --> 01:27:30.237
of anthropic launching a lab and what is

01:27:30.320 --> 01:27:32.877
the purpose of them having a physical

01:27:32.960 --> 01:27:36.877
biological lab? There's hundreds of labs

01:27:36.960 --> 01:27:38.877
that can do things like testing proteins

01:27:38.960 --> 01:27:42.637
and testing enzymes for function in this

01:27:42.720 --> 01:27:45.997
area in the Bay Area. And these labs are

01:27:46.080 --> 01:27:49.517
not making viruses. They're not making

01:27:49.600 --> 01:27:54.397
pathogens. That's not what what's going
on. Basically, if you look at the paper

01:27:54.480 --> 01:27:55.837
that they just published, they did a

01:27:55.920 --> 01:27:57.757
preprint.

01:27:57.840 --> 01:28:02.077
They took large amounts of DNA data and

01:28:02.160 --> 01:28:04.237
they sent a bunch of clawed agents to

01:28:04.320 --> 01:28:05.997
try and analyze the data to try and

01:28:06.080 --> 01:28:09.357
identify novel enzymes, novel proteins

01:28:09.440 --> 01:28:11.757
that hadn't been characterized before by

01:28:11.840 --> 01:28:14.397
just looking at the DNA data.

01:28:14.480 --> 01:28:16.637
And the system effectively found what

01:28:16.720 --> 01:28:20.717
looks like a really interesting

01:28:20.800 --> 01:28:23.997
enzyme that looks like a crisper types
enzyme. These are the things that allow

01:28:24.080 --> 01:28:27.997
us to do things like gene editing
to repair genetic defects or help people

01:28:28.080 --> 01:28:30.397
with certain diseases and that this

01:28:30.480 --> 01:28:35.037
discovery that they made may actually
yield a number of therapeutic pathways.

01:28:35.120 --> 01:28:38.397
So the question then is okay well we
discovered this like how do we test it?

01:28:38.480 --> 01:28:41.837
How do we show that it is what it
is that this protein actually has some

01:28:41.920 --> 01:28:46.237
function? So the predominance of the work
that goes on in a lab like this is

01:28:46.320 --> 01:28:50.637
actually taking DNA,
putting it in a bacteria to

01:28:50.720 --> 01:28:52.877
make a protein and then measuring what

01:28:52.960 --> 01:28:57.837
that protein does. Does it have
a specific function? And so protein

01:28:57.920 --> 01:29:01.357
discovery is the the baseline of all
antibbody discovery, which is the

01:29:01.440 --> 01:29:05.437
majority of the therapeutics industry
today, is discovering novel proteins

01:29:05.520 --> 01:29:07.837
that we can use as a therapeutic agent.

01:29:07.920 --> 01:29:09.277
So that's the sort of work that's going

01:29:09.360 --> 01:29:13.197
on. It's BSL1, BSL 2, which means, you

01:29:13.280 --> 01:29:16.957
know, these are biosafety levels.
The lab that they set up, they've publicly

01:29:17.040 --> 01:29:20.477
talked about the lab. >> So,
the lab itself is sort of like a

01:29:20.560 --> 01:29:24.877
low-level research lab where they can
make simple proteins and test them in

01:29:24.960 --> 01:29:27.357
the lab to see if the AI is doing a good

01:29:27.440 --> 01:29:30.157
job discovering or postulating protein

01:29:30.240 --> 01:29:34.477
folding or these sorts of theories and
to actually run really rapid testing and

01:29:34.560 --> 01:29:38.237
experimentation cycles to see if these
proteins are what they're predicted to

01:29:38.320 --> 01:29:41.517
be. >> Okay. So,
they like 4,000 agents against

01:29:41.600 --> 01:29:43.597
it and do a hugging face with proteins.

01:29:43.680 --> 01:29:45.917
Yeah. >> No, I mean I
think what they're really

01:29:46.000 --> 01:29:49.757
doing is just having experimental proof
that what the software is predicting,

01:29:49.840 --> 01:29:53.677
remember, go back to AlphaFold.
Alphold was predicting protein structure,

01:29:53.760 --> 01:29:57.917
three-dimensional structure of a protein
from the DNA sequence that codes for

01:29:58.000 --> 01:30:02.877
that protein. And so in order to prove
that, you had to basically predict what

01:30:02.960 --> 01:30:06.637
the structure of a protein would be
from a DNA sequence, make the protein, and

01:30:06.720 --> 01:30:09.677
then look at it and see if it actually
looks like it's supposed to look like.

01:30:09.760 --> 01:30:12.317
And so in the case of some of the other
things that they're doing, they're

01:30:12.400 --> 01:30:14.637
trying to discover function. I want to

01:30:14.720 --> 01:30:19.437
find a an enzyme, which is a type of a
protein that degrades a certain molecule

01:30:19.520 --> 01:30:23.277
that can be used to degrade, for example,
you know, a therapeutic target

01:30:23.360 --> 01:30:27.117
or something in the body that we want to
get rid of. And so they'll start to kind

01:30:27.200 --> 01:30:30.877
of make these predictions in software,
but then you need to test them in the

01:30:30.960 --> 01:30:34.557
lab to say, okay, does that target
actually do what it does? Now, there are

01:30:34.640 --> 01:30:36.797
literally hundreds of labs like this.

01:30:36.880 --> 01:30:40.157
These are low-level research labs
that are not doing like gain of function

01:30:40.240 --> 01:30:42.637
research. They're not making viruses.

01:30:42.720 --> 01:30:45.757
They're not making pathogenic things
that can escape. That's why they're

01:30:45.840 --> 01:30:49.597
BSL1, BSL 2. They're benchtop labs where

01:30:49.680 --> 01:30:53.037
automation can help kind of reduce the
cost and increase the throughput of the

01:30:53.120 --> 01:30:56.397
testing of what the software is making
predictions around. And ultimately the

01:30:56.480 --> 01:30:59.437
objective here I think is for them to

01:30:59.520 --> 01:31:03.757
get some proof that their software
is actually doing what it's predicting and

01:31:03.840 --> 01:31:07.437
they have an incredible life sciences
function. I think at this point I don't

01:31:07.520 --> 01:31:11.597
have as much insight on where Gemini
is at with the new models with Google, but

01:31:11.680 --> 01:31:15.997
they have the best life sciences models
at Anthropic and I think this is the

01:31:16.080 --> 01:31:20.157
fast track to basically seeing if
these models can be used by therapeutic

01:31:20.240 --> 01:31:24.397
companies, by pharma companies,
by government labs to help discover new

01:31:24.480 --> 01:31:26.637
therapeutics and so on. I I don't think

01:31:26.720 --> 01:31:29.357
that the world should be scared away

01:31:29.440 --> 01:31:32.077
from discovery, R&D, research and

01:31:32.160 --> 01:31:34.477
development into new therapeutic

01:31:34.560 --> 01:31:37.357
modalities as predicted by AI because we

01:31:37.440 --> 01:31:39.437
heard the word wet lab in Wuhan and

01:31:39.520 --> 01:31:44.717
everyone's like okay any lab is bad.
We still want to progress the frontier of

01:31:44.800 --> 01:31:48.797
therapeutics of human health of discovery
and this is a really important

01:31:48.880 --> 01:31:53.517
aspect of anthropic proving that their
models can add value here. I think

01:31:53.600 --> 01:31:54.877
that's the summary of it. All right.

01:31:54.960 --> 01:31:57.037
Thank you so much to our friends at IN.

01:31:57.120 --> 01:32:00.237
They were the presenting they were
the presenting sponsor for this year's

01:32:00.320 --> 01:32:03.437
all-in seminar fifth IN's AI cloud

01:32:03.520 --> 01:32:05.917
lounge. It's packed for all three days.

01:32:06.000 --> 01:32:10.477
Did a great meet and greet with INE
on Sunday and got to take some selfies and

01:32:10.560 --> 01:32:15.160
met many of you there.
Thanks again to INER.

01:32:15.680 --> 01:32:18.157
Niagen, did you catch Niogen in the

01:32:18.240 --> 01:32:23.677
wellness hub for IVs? Tons of uh great
gifts and supplements being given away.

01:32:23.760 --> 01:32:26.957
Great experience, great product. Great
job to our friends at Niogen for doing

01:32:27.040 --> 01:32:29.997
the lounge again. Nigen is the official

01:32:30.080 --> 01:32:32.637
NAD partner for the all-in pod. Yes,

01:32:32.720 --> 01:32:35.437
Niogen BioScience created the NAD

01:32:35.520 --> 01:32:38.877
category now has 45 plus clinical

01:32:38.960 --> 01:32:43.837
studies and PayPal, my favorite way
to settle up. They had a great lounge on

01:32:43.920 --> 01:32:47.197
site at the summit where everybody
got to hang out and get those beautiful

01:32:47.280 --> 01:32:49.997
embossed luggage tags. and they hosted

01:32:50.080 --> 01:32:51.917
the payments and fintech dinner which

01:32:52.000 --> 01:32:54.237
was a huge hit. Let me tell you folks,

01:32:54.320 --> 01:32:57.437
All-InSummit 2027 will sell out again

01:32:57.520 --> 01:33:01.597
and the applications are open now.
Go to allin.com/events

01:33:01.680 --> 01:33:05.757
and apply for your chance to be
in the room where it happens. What are you

01:33:05.840 --> 01:33:08.557
waiting for folks? Allin.com/events.

01:33:08.640 --> 01:33:10.477
All right, there you have it folks.

01:33:10.560 --> 01:33:13.837
Episode 290, the all-in pod

01:33:13.920 --> 01:33:18.397
for David Paulie Hakatia
and your Sultan of

01:33:18.480 --> 01:33:22.557
Science Freeberg. I am the [music] world's
greatest moderator. See you next time.

01:33:22.640 --> 01:33:25.357
Bye-bye.

01:33:25.440 --> 01:33:31.800
>> Let your winners ride. >> Rainman David

01:33:32.400 --> 01:33:35.757
>> and it said we open [music] sourced
it to the fans and they've just gone crazy

01:33:35.840 --> 01:33:40.680
with it. >> Queen of

01:33:45.200 --> 01:33:47.917
>> [music] >> Besties are gone.

01:33:48.000 --> 01:33:52.327
>> That is my dog taking
a notice in your driveway.

01:33:52.410 --> 01:33:55.757
[music] >> Oh man,
my appetasher will meet me at

01:33:55.840 --> 01:33:58.877
>> We should all just get a room and just
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all

01:33:58.960 --> 01:34:01.837
just useless. It's like this like sexual
tension [music] that they just need to

01:34:01.920 --> 01:34:05.120
release somehow.

01:34:06.080 --> 01:34:09.037
your feet.

01:34:09.120 --> 01:34:13.937
We need to get merch going all in.

01:34:14.020 --> 01:34:16.050
[music]

01:34:18.560 --> 01:34:21.940
I'm going all in. [music]