WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.000 Heat. Heat. 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:53.037 That was not a That was Not a large 00:00:53.120 --> 00:00:57.000 applause. Start again. 00:01:01.040 --> 00:01:04.317 >> That's better. Thank you. >> Yeah, we're going to make this 00:01:04.400 --> 00:01:06.877 interesting. 00:01:06.960 --> 00:01:11.597 How many how many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this 00:01:11.680 --> 00:01:16.397 session? >> Uh I don't know. I mean, five. 00:01:16.480 --> 00:01:19.917 >> Okay. So, uh good afternoon everybody. It's 00:01:20.000 --> 00:01:21.757 great to see everybody here. Uh it's 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:24.957 been an amazing week here in Davos. Um 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:27.197 hopefully everybody 00:01:27.280 --> 00:01:30.237 saw that we are having conversations 00:01:30.320 --> 00:01:34.477 here. Hopefully everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may 00:01:34.560 --> 00:01:38.717 disagreed. There's many conversations we may have agreed but through those 00:01:38.800 --> 00:01:41.437 conversations and I think today's result 00:01:41.520 --> 00:01:46.957 with a peace agreement earlier today um the world economic forum is here to 00:01:47.040 --> 00:01:48.397 have those conversations to have 00:01:48.480 --> 00:01:52.637 understandings and also resolution. So 00:01:52.720 --> 00:01:56.477 um uh it's an important component of who 00:01:56.560 --> 00:01:59.597 we and what we are and I'm thrilled uh 00:01:59.680 --> 00:02:02.797 to have Elon Musk here. Um 00:02:02.880 --> 00:02:07.037 he came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So uh thank 00:02:07.120 --> 00:02:11.560 you Elon. >> Uh you're most welcome. 00:02:11.920 --> 00:02:14.317 >> Um >> I mean I heard I heard about heard about 00:02:14.400 --> 00:02:17.117 the formation of the the peace summit 00:02:17.200 --> 00:02:21.517 and I was like is that uh is that PIC? 00:02:21.600 --> 00:02:24.600 Uh 00:02:25.040 --> 00:02:29.917 you know little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. 00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:33.517 Okay, we we got one. >> All we want is peace. 00:02:33.600 --> 00:02:35.437 >> Okay, I'm going to uh as I said, I'm a 00:02:35.520 --> 00:02:40.717 pretty proud uh CEO of Black Rockck since we went public. Um uh the 00:02:40.800 --> 00:02:42.237 compounding return of Black Rockck to 00:02:42.320 --> 00:02:44.717 our shareholders with 21%. 00:02:44.800 --> 00:02:49.117 Uh since Elon took Tesla uh public, his 00:02:49.200 --> 00:02:54.920 compounded return is 43%. 00:02:55.680 --> 00:02:57.677 This is I just another advertisement for 00:02:57.760 --> 00:03:00.077 everybody especially for Europeans. This 00:03:00.160 --> 00:03:04.237 is why more citizens should be investing 00:03:04.320 --> 00:03:06.397 with growth, investing with their 00:03:06.480 --> 00:03:08.877 countries. Imagine if a lot of pension 00:03:08.960 --> 00:03:12.717 funds invested with Elon when Tesla went 00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:16.157 public and how much 00:03:16.240 --> 00:03:19.037 return with the all the pension funds 00:03:19.120 --> 00:03:21.997 that invested side by side with Elon and 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:27.597 the growth. So, um, a spectacular return. There's very few companies, 00:03:27.680 --> 00:03:31.197 well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has 00:03:31.280 --> 00:03:34.477 that compounded return. So, congratulations. Thank you. It's a good 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:36.397 measurement. >> Well, we have an incredible team at 00:03:36.480 --> 00:03:38.477 Tesla, and that's the reason. 00:03:38.560 --> 00:03:42.237 >> So, I want to get into the dirt, the the 00:03:42.320 --> 00:03:44.877 meaningful component about technology, 00:03:44.960 --> 00:03:47.597 the possibilities. Um I want to talk 00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:51.277 about AI and robotics, energy, space and 00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:56.077 the progress ultimately coming down to engineering engineering discipline scale 00:03:56.160 --> 00:03:57.597 execution. 00:03:57.680 --> 00:04:01.597 Um and few few people if not anyone has 00:04:01.680 --> 00:04:04.797 the experience and the fortitude to 00:04:04.880 --> 00:04:07.277 confront these issues headon. Not just 00:04:07.360 --> 00:04:12.397 the ideas but the execution across so many different technologies. Elon and 00:04:12.480 --> 00:04:14.077 that's why I thought it was important 00:04:14.160 --> 00:04:16.797 for us to have this dialogue here uh in 00:04:16.880 --> 00:04:20.557 Davos. So you're presently building on 00:04:20.640 --> 00:04:24.317 AI, on robotics, on space, on energy all 00:04:24.400 --> 00:04:29.597 at the same time. When you look across those efforts, 00:04:29.680 --> 00:04:33.437 what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint? 00:04:33.520 --> 00:04:35.037 >> Uh well, they're all very difficult 00:04:35.120 --> 00:04:38.877 technology challenges. Um but the 00:04:38.960 --> 00:04:40.957 uh the overall goal of my companies is 00:04:41.040 --> 00:04:42.957 to 00:04:43.040 --> 00:04:45.917 maximize the future of civilization like 00:04:46.000 --> 00:04:48.157 basically maximize the probability that 00:04:48.240 --> 00:04:52.077 civilization has a great future. Um and 00:04:52.160 --> 00:04:55.437 uh to expand consciousness beyond earth. 00:04:55.520 --> 00:04:58.877 So take SpaceX for example that SpaceX 00:04:58.960 --> 00:05:02.477 is about build advancing rocket technology to the point where we can 00:05:02.560 --> 00:05:04.877 extend life and consciousness beyond 00:05:04.960 --> 00:05:08.077 earth. uh to the moon, to Mars, uh 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:12.237 eventually to other star systems. And uh 00:05:12.320 --> 00:05:13.997 and I think we should always view 00:05:14.080 --> 00:05:16.877 consciousness uh life as we know it as 00:05:16.960 --> 00:05:20.637 as precarious and delicate. Um because 00:05:20.720 --> 00:05:23.677 to the best of our knowledge, we we we 00:05:23.760 --> 00:05:25.757 don't know of life anywhere else. You 00:05:25.840 --> 00:05:28.717 know, I'm often asked um are there 00:05:28.800 --> 00:05:33.677 aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one, but 00:05:33.760 --> 00:05:36.077 >> or you're from the future. They don't believe me. 00:05:36.160 --> 00:05:40.957 >> Okay. >> Um, so, uh, but I I I 00:05:41.040 --> 00:05:42.157 think if anyone would know if there are 00:05:42.240 --> 00:05:45.437 aliens among us, it would be me. Um, 00:05:45.520 --> 00:05:48.957 and, uh, we we have 9,000 satellites up 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:51.117 there, and not once have we had to 00:05:51.200 --> 00:05:54.157 maneuver around an an alien spaceship. 00:05:54.240 --> 00:05:57.037 So, I'm like, I don't know. It's bottom 00:05:57.120 --> 00:06:00.157 line is I think we need to assume that 00:06:00.240 --> 00:06:02.477 life and consciousness is extremely rare 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:05.917 and it might only be us. And if that's 00:06:06.000 --> 00:06:07.757 the case, then we need to do everything 00:06:07.840 --> 00:06:11.917 possible to to ensure that the the light 00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:13.517 of can the light the light of 00:06:13.600 --> 00:06:16.397 consciousness is not extinguished 00:06:16.480 --> 00:06:18.957 because we're effectively the way I view 00:06:19.040 --> 00:06:21.917 it is the image in my mind is of a a 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:26.237 tiny candle in a vast darkness tiny 00:06:26.320 --> 00:06:28.157 candle of consciousness that could 00:06:28.240 --> 00:06:33.437 easily go out. Um and that's why it's important to make life multilanetary 00:06:33.520 --> 00:06:37.917 uh such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on earth 00:06:38.000 --> 00:06:39.837 that consciousness continues. That's the 00:06:39.920 --> 00:06:43.197 purpose of SpaceX. Um 00:06:43.280 --> 00:06:45.757 te Tesla is obviously about sustainable 00:06:45.840 --> 00:06:50.237 technology and uh and and also at this 00:06:50.320 --> 00:06:52.397 point we've we've sort of added to our 00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:55.437 mission sustainable abundance. 00:06:55.520 --> 00:06:59.437 So with robotics and AI 00:06:59.520 --> 00:07:02.957 um this this is really the path to 00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:05.437 abundance for all. If you say you know 00:07:05.520 --> 00:07:09.437 people often talk about uh solving 00:07:09.520 --> 00:07:11.917 global poverty or essentially how how do 00:07:12.000 --> 00:07:15.277 we make give everyone a very high 00:07:15.360 --> 00:07:17.437 standard of living? I I think the only 00:07:17.520 --> 00:07:21.437 way to do this is AI and robotics. 00:07:21.520 --> 00:07:25.197 um which which doesn't mean that it is uh 00:07:25.280 --> 00:07:29.277 without its issues. I mean there's we need to be very careful with AI. We need 00:07:29.360 --> 00:07:31.837 to be very careful with robotics. We 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:33.997 don't want to find ourselves in a James 00:07:34.080 --> 00:07:37.117 Cameron movie. Uh 00:07:37.200 --> 00:07:41.837 you know Terminator >> he's he's great movies. Love his movies 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:42.877 but but we don't want to be in 00:07:42.960 --> 00:07:46.157 Terminator obviously. Um but but if you 00:07:46.240 --> 00:07:50.077 have um ubiquitous AI that is 00:07:50.160 --> 00:07:52.637 essentially free or close to it and 00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:56.237 ubiquitous robotics uh then uh you will 00:07:56.320 --> 00:08:00.557 have an an an explosion in the in the global economy 00:08:00.640 --> 00:08:03.757 an expansion in the global economy that is truly 00:08:03.840 --> 00:08:05.837 beyond all precedent. 00:08:05.920 --> 00:08:09.277 >> Elen, can that expansion be broad? Yes. 00:08:09.360 --> 00:08:12.077 >> Or is it narrow? And how can that be 00:08:12.160 --> 00:08:16.317 created? How can it broaden the global economy? 00:08:16.400 --> 00:08:21.437 >> Yeah, it's I mean I mean a way to think of it is 00:08:21.520 --> 00:08:26.637 that if you have a large number of humanoid robots um the economic output 00:08:26.720 --> 00:08:31.757 is the average productivity per robot times 00:08:31.840 --> 00:08:32.957 the number of robots, 00:08:33.040 --> 00:08:37.117 >> right? Um and and actually my prediction 00:08:37.200 --> 00:08:39.917 is in the in the benign scenario of the 00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:44.557 future that we will the robots we will actually make so many robots in AI that 00:08:44.640 --> 00:08:46.877 they will actually saturate all human 00:08:46.960 --> 00:08:49.437 needs. Meaning you won't be able to even 00:08:49.520 --> 00:08:51.597 think of something 00:08:51.680 --> 00:08:54.477 to ask the robot for at a certain point 00:08:54.560 --> 00:08:56.877 like like there will be such an 00:08:56.960 --> 00:08:59.517 abundance of goods and services 00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:02.957 because the my prediction is there'll be 00:09:03.040 --> 00:09:04.877 there'll be more robots than people. So 00:09:04.960 --> 00:09:07.997 >> but how do you then have human purpose 00:09:08.080 --> 00:09:11.117 in that scenario? Yeah, I mean, you 00:09:11.200 --> 00:09:13.197 know, there nothing's perfect, you know, 00:09:13.280 --> 00:09:16.157 but um 00:09:16.240 --> 00:09:19.277 but I mean I mean it is it is a a 00:09:19.360 --> 00:09:22.157 necessary um 00:09:22.240 --> 00:09:24.077 like you can't have both. You can't have 00:09:24.160 --> 00:09:28.157 work that has to be done uh um and uh 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:32.797 amazing abundance for all. Um because if it's if it's work that has 00:09:32.880 --> 00:09:37.037 to be done then then then you and and only some people can do it then then you 00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:39.197 you you can't have abundance of >> then it's narrow. 00:09:39.280 --> 00:09:40.877 >> It's narrow. Exactly. 00:09:40.960 --> 00:09:45.277 >> So um but if you if you have billions of 00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:49.917 humanoid robots and I think there will be um then I think I think everyone on 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:51.437 earth is going to have one and going to 00:09:51.520 --> 00:09:55.517 want one. Um because uh you would who 00:09:55.600 --> 00:09:59.117 wouldn't want a robot to you know um 00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:01.437 assuming it's very safe uh watch over 00:10:01.520 --> 00:10:04.717 your kids, take care of your pet. Uh if 00:10:04.800 --> 00:10:08.877 you have elderly parents, uh a lot of friends of mine said they have elderly 00:10:08.960 --> 00:10:11.517 parents, it's it's uh very difficult to take care of them. 00:10:11.600 --> 00:10:13.997 >> Expensive. >> Yeah, it's expensive and it's expensive 00:10:14.080 --> 00:10:17.517 and there just aren't enough people to take care of the there aren't enough 00:10:17.600 --> 00:10:19.837 young people to take care of the old people, >> right? 00:10:19.920 --> 00:10:23.837 >> Um so if you if they Um, if if you had a 00:10:23.920 --> 00:10:28.877 robot that could take care of and protect an an elderly parent, I think 00:10:28.960 --> 00:10:30.557 that would be great. That would be an 00:10:30.640 --> 00:10:33.677 amazing thing to have. Um, and and that 00:10:33.760 --> 00:10:38.317 I think we will have those things. So, I mean, overall, I'm I'm very optimistic 00:10:38.400 --> 00:10:39.757 about the future. I think we're headed 00:10:39.840 --> 00:10:43.437 for a future of amazing abundance, uh, 00:10:43.520 --> 00:10:47.677 which is very cool. Um, and, uh, and and 00:10:47.760 --> 00:10:51.677 definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. 00:10:51.760 --> 00:10:54.317 Um, I don't think there's more a more 00:10:54.400 --> 00:10:56.877 interesting time in history. 00:10:56.960 --> 00:10:59.677 >> Can we uh can you and I reverse aging in 00:10:59.760 --> 00:11:04.957 this new history or or or are we going to see it? 00:11:05.040 --> 00:11:06.557 >> You know, I haven't I haven't put much 00:11:06.640 --> 00:11:09.997 time into uh the aging stuff. I I do 00:11:10.080 --> 00:11:14.237 think it is a very solvable problem like like you can 00:11:14.320 --> 00:11:18.557 I think when when when we figure out what causes aging, 00:11:18.640 --> 00:11:23.277 >> I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. Um, 00:11:23.360 --> 00:11:27.037 the reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body, 00:11:27.120 --> 00:11:29.277 you know, with some pretty much age at 00:11:29.360 --> 00:11:31.917 the same rate. I've never seen someone 00:11:32.000 --> 00:11:34.957 with with an old left arm and a young 00:11:35.040 --> 00:11:40.077 right arm ever in my life. >> Um, so why is that? It that means that 00:11:40.160 --> 00:11:42.717 there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock, >> right, 00:11:42.800 --> 00:11:45.757 >> that is synchronizing across 35 trillion 00:11:45.840 --> 00:11:51.437 cells in your body. Um and uh 00:11:51.520 --> 00:11:55.117 you know the but there is some benefit 00:11:55.200 --> 00:11:58.157 to death by the way. It's like there's 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:02.957 there's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan. Uh because if 00:12:03.040 --> 00:12:06.637 you if you have if people do live forever for very long time I think 00:12:06.720 --> 00:12:09.197 there's some risk of an oification of 00:12:09.280 --> 00:12:12.157 society of of things just getting kind 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:18.477 of locked in place. Um and uh 00:12:18.560 --> 00:12:23.197 you know it it just may become um 00:12:23.280 --> 00:12:26.317 stalifying just not uh lack lack 00:12:26.400 --> 00:12:29.437 vibrancy. Um but but that that said, do 00:12:29.520 --> 00:12:33.437 I think we'll figure out ways to extend 00:12:33.520 --> 00:12:36.717 life and um and maybe even reverse 00:12:36.800 --> 00:12:40.237 aging? I think that's highly likely. 00:12:40.320 --> 00:12:42.717 >> I'm looking forward to that. 00:12:42.800 --> 00:12:46.717 >> Yeah. Uh so um in the future that you 00:12:46.800 --> 00:12:48.957 talk about AI models, autonomous 00:12:49.040 --> 00:12:51.917 machines, rockets depends on massive 00:12:52.000 --> 00:12:54.957 increases of compute, massive increases 00:12:55.040 --> 00:12:58.717 in energy, expensive energy, 00:12:58.800 --> 00:13:01.197 manufacturing scale, 00:13:01.280 --> 00:13:03.197 what are the bottlenecks to to get 00:13:03.280 --> 00:13:06.717 there? And then once again with all that 00:13:06.800 --> 00:13:09.117 expenditures again, how can we make sure 00:13:09.200 --> 00:13:14.080 that it's broadened, not narrow? 00:13:14.960 --> 00:13:17.597 Um 00:13:17.680 --> 00:13:22.797 I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because uh AI 00:13:22.880 --> 00:13:26.877 companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can and the cost of AI 00:13:26.960 --> 00:13:29.037 will get is already very low and it's 00:13:29.120 --> 00:13:32.157 it's plummeting every year. I mean you 00:13:32.240 --> 00:13:36.237 almost the cost of AI is almost ch meaningfully changing on a 00:13:36.320 --> 00:13:39.517 month-to-month basis. >> There's open there's open models now 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:43.837 everywhere. Yeah. >> Yes. very there's open models um and the 00:13:43.920 --> 00:13:48.557 open models only lag they're maybe a year behind right the the private the 00:13:48.640 --> 00:13:50.237 sort of closed models 00:13:50.320 --> 00:13:55.997 >> um so so I I think the the ai companies 00:13:56.080 --> 00:13:59.517 will seek as as many customers as possible which means they'll seek 00:13:59.600 --> 00:14:02.877 they'll provide AI to the world >> but the cost of getting to there the 00:14:02.960 --> 00:14:05.437 compute the chips 00:14:05.520 --> 00:14:11.037 um the fab um the powering 00:14:11.120 --> 00:14:14.477 that to me what are the what are the you know those are huge 00:14:14.560 --> 00:14:18.877 >> the limiting factor yeah I think the limiting factor for um AI deployment is 00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:21.037 fundamentally electrical power 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:23.757 >> it's just right it's energy 00:14:23.840 --> 00:14:27.197 >> yeah yeah um I mean we're seeing the the 00:14:27.280 --> 00:14:29.597 rate of AI chip production increase 00:14:29.680 --> 00:14:31.517 exponentially but the rate of 00:14:31.600 --> 00:14:34.637 electricity being brought online is uh 00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:39.117 >> 3% 4% a year max >> yeah it's clear that we're we're We're 00:14:39.200 --> 00:14:41.037 we're very soon, maybe even later this 00:14:41.120 --> 00:14:43.277 year, uh we'll be producing more chips 00:14:43.360 --> 00:14:46.397 than we can turn on 00:14:46.480 --> 00:14:50.877 except for China. China China is China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. 00:14:50.960 --> 00:14:54.237 >> They're building 100 gawatts of nuclear as we speak. 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:59.277 >> Uh actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's I believe China's 00:14:59.360 --> 00:15:01.117 production capacity on solar is 1500 00:15:01.200 --> 00:15:03.917 gawatts a year. Um and they're deploying 00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:08.157 over 1,000 gawatts a year of of solar. 00:15:08.240 --> 00:15:11.997 Um now you know for continuous solar 00:15:12.080 --> 00:15:14.717 load you divide that by roughly I don't 00:15:14.800 --> 00:15:18.317 know four or five uh call it that's 00:15:18.400 --> 00:15:21.757 around uh 250 gawatts of steady state 00:15:21.840 --> 00:15:25.277 power um paired with batteries 00:15:25.360 --> 00:15:30.957 um and that that's a very big number that's half of the average power usage 00:15:31.040 --> 00:15:31.917 in the US right 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:35.677 >> so US US power uh usage on average is is 00:15:35.760 --> 00:15:39.277 500 gawatt uh China just in solar just 00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:42.477 like just in in in in solar like that 00:15:42.560 --> 00:15:45.917 can provide steady state power uh and 00:15:46.000 --> 00:15:48.477 batteries can do half of the US 00:15:48.560 --> 00:15:50.797 electricity output per year just with 00:15:50.880 --> 00:15:53.997 solar. Solar is by far the the the 00:15:54.080 --> 00:15:57.117 biggest source of of of energy. Um and 00:15:57.200 --> 00:15:59.597 actually when you look beyond or even 00:15:59.680 --> 00:16:03.117 even on Earth but certainly beyond Earth 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:06.557 u the sun rounds up to 100% of all 00:16:06.640 --> 00:16:09.037 energy. This is an important thing to 00:16:09.120 --> 00:16:14.317 consider. Um so this the sun is 99.8% 00:16:14.400 --> 00:16:16.957 of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter 00:16:17.040 --> 00:16:19.117 is about.1% and everything else is 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:22.317 miscellaneous. Um now even if you were 00:16:22.400 --> 00:16:26.477 to uh burn Jupiter in a in a 00:16:26.560 --> 00:16:30.077 thermonuclear reactor uh the sun the 00:16:30.160 --> 00:16:34.157 amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100% because 00:16:34.240 --> 00:16:36.957 Jupiter is only.1%. If you teleported 00:16:37.040 --> 00:16:39.437 teleported three more Jupiters into our 00:16:39.520 --> 00:16:42.717 solar system, the and and burnt three 00:16:42.800 --> 00:16:45.437 more Jupiters and everything else in the 00:16:45.520 --> 00:16:48.317 solar system, the sun's 00:16:48.400 --> 00:16:52.157 energy would still round up to 100%. 00:16:52.240 --> 00:16:57.117 >> So, it's really all about the sun. Um and that's that's why 00:16:57.200 --> 00:16:58.477 uh one of the things we'll be doing with 00:16:58.560 --> 00:17:04.797 SpaceX uh in within a few years is launching um solar powered AI 00:17:04.880 --> 00:17:05.437 satellites, 00:17:05.520 --> 00:17:09.197 >> right? Um because the space is really 00:17:09.280 --> 00:17:11.917 the source of immense power and then you 00:17:12.000 --> 00:17:14.317 don't need to take up any room on earth. 00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:17.357 uh there's so much room in space and you 00:17:17.440 --> 00:17:20.957 can scale to uh enormous uh I mean you 00:17:21.040 --> 00:17:23.357 can you can scale to 00:17:23.440 --> 00:17:29.960 I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terowatts a year 00:17:30.960 --> 00:17:34.877 you and I have had these conversations before but why don't you tell the 00:17:34.960 --> 00:17:36.797 audience what would it take for the 00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:38.957 United States and what type of geography 00:17:39.040 --> 00:17:44.397 would it take to have that solar field to electrify the United States And and 00:17:44.480 --> 00:17:47.757 then let me ask a question. Why aren't we doing it? 00:17:47.840 --> 00:17:50.317 >> Yeah. So I mean I guess rough way to 00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:53.277 think about it is um 100 miles by 100 00:17:53.360 --> 00:17:57.997 miles we'll call it 160 km by 160 km of 00:17:58.080 --> 00:18:01.117 of solar is enough to power the entire 00:18:01.200 --> 00:18:03.757 United States. 00:18:03.840 --> 00:18:08.317 So the 100 100 mile mile by 100 mile area is is I mean you could take 00:18:08.400 --> 00:18:11.117 basically a small corner of Utah, >> Nevada, 00:18:11.200 --> 00:18:16.317 >> Nevada, New Mexico. Obviously we wouldn't want it all in one place, but 00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:18.077 you could it's it is a very small 00:18:18.160 --> 00:18:21.837 percentage of the area of of the US to 00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:26.317 generate all of the electricity that the US uses. Um and the same is true 00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:28.557 actually I mean for for Europe you you 00:18:28.640 --> 00:18:31.277 could take a small part you could take 00:18:31.360 --> 00:18:34.717 uh relatively unpopulated areas of say 00:18:34.800 --> 00:18:39.597 Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs. 00:18:39.680 --> 00:18:43.517 >> So why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the 00:18:43.600 --> 00:18:45.917 United States? >> Uh well there is 00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:48.237 >> as it is in China. 00:18:48.320 --> 00:18:50.877 Well, unfortunately in in the US the the 00:18:50.960 --> 00:18:54.717 the tariff barriers for solar are are 00:18:54.800 --> 00:18:57.757 extremely high. Um and that makes the 00:18:57.840 --> 00:19:01.597 economics of deploying solar uh 00:19:01.680 --> 00:19:07.437 so artificially high because China makes almost all the solar um and uh and the 00:19:07.520 --> 00:19:09.357 that >> what would it take for Europe or the US 00:19:09.440 --> 00:19:12.077 to build it commercially if it's that 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:14.717 scale? 00:19:14.800 --> 00:19:17.917 Yeah, I I think I think uh well, I can 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:21.757 tell you what what we're going to do, you know, at SpaceX and Tesla was is 00:19:21.840 --> 00:19:25.597 we're we're building up um large scale solar, >> right? 00:19:25.680 --> 00:19:27.917 >> So, the the SpaceX and Tesla teams both 00:19:28.000 --> 00:19:30.477 separately are working to build to 100 00:19:30.560 --> 00:19:33.837 gawatts a year of solar power in the US 00:19:33.920 --> 00:19:38.797 of manufactured solar power. Um and um 00:19:38.880 --> 00:19:41.917 that'll probably take us I don't know about three years or something. 00:19:42.000 --> 00:19:43.917 >> But that's these are pretty big numbers. 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:44.477 Mhm. 00:19:44.560 --> 00:19:48.157 >> Um and um you know I'd encourage others 00:19:48.240 --> 00:19:51.517 to the to do the same. Um 00:19:51.600 --> 00:19:53.597 we obviously don't control the you know 00:19:53.680 --> 00:19:59.197 US tariff policy. uh but uh for for for 00:19:59.280 --> 00:20:02.397 other countries uh I would re you know 00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:05.277 that there's China makes solar cells 00:20:05.360 --> 00:20:08.317 that are incredibly low cost and I think 00:20:08.400 --> 00:20:13.720 uh it would be worth uh doing large scale solo. 00:20:15.760 --> 00:20:18.760 So, 00:20:19.040 --> 00:20:23.677 I know you are you're going to be having a couple big announcements on robotics 00:20:23.760 --> 00:20:28.077 and what it can do. I mean, when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. 00:20:28.160 --> 00:20:31.560 >> Yeah. >> Um, 00:20:32.000 --> 00:20:36.477 how quickly you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and 00:20:36.560 --> 00:20:38.317 how quickly can they be deployed in a 00:20:38.400 --> 00:20:40.477 manufacturing setting? How quickly can 00:20:40.560 --> 00:20:43.597 they be utilized and be functional and 00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:49.960 be uh create that that abundance that you talked about? 00:20:50.640 --> 00:20:52.317 >> Well, 00:20:52.400 --> 00:20:53.997 humanoid robotics will advance very 00:20:54.080 --> 00:20:58.157 quickly. I think uh we we we do have 00:20:58.240 --> 00:21:00.877 some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing 00:21:00.960 --> 00:21:03.997 simple tasks in the factory. 00:21:04.080 --> 00:21:07.917 um except probably later this year by 00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:09.197 the end of this year I think they'll be 00:21:09.280 --> 00:21:14.477 doing um more more complex tasks um and 00:21:14.560 --> 00:21:16.877 and but still deployed in an industrial 00:21:16.960 --> 00:21:20.317 environment and uh and probably sometime 00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:24.317 next year I'd say that by the by the end 00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:27.837 of next year I I think uh we'd be 00:21:27.920 --> 00:21:30.637 selling humanoid robots uh to the 00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:33.677 public. um that that's when we are 00:21:33.760 --> 00:21:35.357 confident that the it's very high 00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:38.157 reliability, very high safety um and the 00:21:38.240 --> 00:21:42.477 range of functionality is uh is also very high. You can basically ask it to 00:21:42.560 --> 00:21:45.917 do anything you'd like. >> You're already seeing that in Tesla 00:21:46.000 --> 00:21:49.517 cars. This the software changes that you're doing and what is it every 00:21:49.600 --> 00:21:53.997 quarter now a software change that upgrades the the ability of the robot 00:21:54.080 --> 00:21:58.237 within the car. >> Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving 00:21:58.320 --> 00:22:00.397 software we we update it sometimes once 00:22:00.480 --> 00:22:04.877 a week. Um and um recently some of the 00:22:04.960 --> 00:22:07.037 insurance companies have said that uh it 00:22:07.120 --> 00:22:10.237 is actually so safe uh when where Tesla 00:22:10.320 --> 00:22:13.197 full full self-driving is so safe that 00:22:13.280 --> 00:22:16.317 uh they're they're offering uh customers 00:22:16.400 --> 00:22:21.517 half price insurance if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in their car 00:22:21.600 --> 00:22:24.317 >> and that can be monitored by the insurance company. Can they is that part 00:22:24.400 --> 00:22:28.237 of the agreement then? >> Yeah. 00:22:28.320 --> 00:22:34.717 Um but I I think uh self-driving cars is 00:22:34.800 --> 00:22:37.117 essentially a solved problem at this point, 00:22:37.200 --> 00:22:41.517 >> right? um at and te Tesla's r rolled out 00:22:41.600 --> 00:22:44.717 uh sort of robo taxi service in a few cities and 00:22:44.800 --> 00:22:45.197 >> right 00:22:45.280 --> 00:22:49.117 >> we'll uh I be very very widespread by 00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:52.077 the end of this year within the US and 00:22:52.160 --> 00:22:57.117 then we we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe 00:22:57.200 --> 00:22:59.757 hopefully next month >> really that quickly 00:22:59.840 --> 00:23:03.597 >> yeah and then uh maybe a similar timing 00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:07.037 timing for China hopefully >> I want to move to space because 00:23:07.120 --> 00:23:09.517 historically space is very capital 00:23:09.600 --> 00:23:12.157 intensive. It historically been done by 00:23:12.240 --> 00:23:14.637 governments obviously SpaceX changed the 00:23:14.720 --> 00:23:18.157 whole model. Uh but we've seen it slow 00:23:18.240 --> 00:23:21.757 to scale and now I'm starting to see it ramping up and what you're doing and 00:23:21.840 --> 00:23:26.717 other things. Um talk to us about the res you know the 00:23:26.800 --> 00:23:28.717 automation and AI how it's changing the 00:23:28.800 --> 00:23:31.037 economics in building uh and preparing 00:23:31.120 --> 00:23:34.477 for us in operating in space. 00:23:34.560 --> 00:23:38.600 >> Uh sure. Um 00:23:39.520 --> 00:23:43.517 well the the key breakthrough that tells that that's the major breakthrough that 00:23:43.600 --> 00:23:45.757 SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is 00:23:45.840 --> 00:23:47.997 full reusability. 00:23:48.080 --> 00:23:51.277 Um so no one has ever achieved full 00:23:51.360 --> 00:23:55.037 reusability of a rocket which is very important for the cost of access to 00:23:55.120 --> 00:23:59.277 space. Um we've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the 00:23:59.360 --> 00:24:01.037 boost stage. We've we've now landed the 00:24:01.120 --> 00:24:05.437 boost stage over 500 times. Um but uh we 00:24:05.520 --> 00:24:09.757 we don't we have to throw away the upper stage. The upper stage burns up on 00:24:09.840 --> 00:24:12.237 re-entry for Falcon 9. So and that that 00:24:12.320 --> 00:24:14.317 the cost of that is equivalent to a 00:24:14.400 --> 00:24:18.797 small to mediumsiz jet. So um but with 00:24:18.880 --> 00:24:23.277 with Starship which is a giant rocket it's it's the largest flying machine ever made. 00:24:23.360 --> 00:24:26.957 >> That's a rocket that you using for the idea of going to Mars right? 00:24:27.040 --> 00:24:29.357 >> Yeah Mars and the moon. Um as well as 00:24:29.440 --> 00:24:33.677 for high volume satellite stuff. So, 00:24:33.760 --> 00:24:36.797 Starship um hopefully this year we 00:24:36.880 --> 00:24:39.037 should prove full reusability for 00:24:39.120 --> 00:24:43.917 Starship which will be um a a profound 00:24:44.000 --> 00:24:47.677 invention uh because 00:24:47.760 --> 00:24:50.477 uh the cost of access to space will drop 00:24:50.560 --> 00:24:55.437 by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. Um, 00:24:55.520 --> 00:24:57.597 >> right. >> It's it's the same sort of economic 00:24:57.680 --> 00:25:02.717 difference that you would expect that uh between say a reusable aircraft and a 00:25:02.800 --> 00:25:06.957 non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every 00:25:07.040 --> 00:25:08.797 flight, that would be a very expensive 00:25:08.880 --> 00:25:11.597 flight. Um, but if you only have to 00:25:11.680 --> 00:25:14.237 refuel uh then it's the cost of the 00:25:14.320 --> 00:25:19.437 fuel. And so that's really the uh 00:25:19.520 --> 00:25:21.837 the the fundamental breakthrough that 00:25:21.920 --> 00:25:25.197 gets the cost of access to space uh we 00:25:25.280 --> 00:25:30.157 think uh below the cost of uh of freight 00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:32.317 on aircraft. 00:25:32.400 --> 00:25:34.557 Uh so 00:25:34.640 --> 00:25:37.437 you know under under $100 a pound type 00:25:37.520 --> 00:25:42.477 of thing easily. Um so it it it makes uh 00:25:42.560 --> 00:25:46.077 putting large satellites into into space 00:25:46.160 --> 00:25:49.197 very low very very cheap. Um and then 00:25:49.280 --> 00:25:54.557 when you have solar in space you you get uh five times more effectiveness maybe 00:25:54.640 --> 00:25:58.557 even more than that than solar on the ground because it's it's always sunny. 00:25:58.640 --> 00:26:02.317 >> It's cold and >> it yeah it's it's it's always well it's 00:26:02.400 --> 00:26:04.237 always sunny so you don't have a dayight 00:26:04.320 --> 00:26:05.837 cycle or seasonality 00:26:05.920 --> 00:26:09.677 >> or weather. Um and you get about uh 30% 00:26:09.760 --> 00:26:14.477 more power in space uh because uh you don't have atmospheric attenuation of 00:26:14.560 --> 00:26:15.597 the power. >> Right? 00:26:15.680 --> 00:26:17.357 >> The the net effect is solar is five 00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:21.917 times more uh any given solar panel will 00:26:22.000 --> 00:26:25.357 do five times more uh energy in space 00:26:25.440 --> 00:26:29.277 than uh on the ground. >> Is there any capacity in doing that and 00:26:29.360 --> 00:26:33.517 and then taking that power and bringing it back to earth? Is there any way of 00:26:33.600 --> 00:26:35.197 doing that or or you're just taking that 00:26:35.280 --> 00:26:37.277 power and utilizing it for the needs 00:26:37.360 --> 00:26:42.237 like building um u AI data centers in 00:26:42.320 --> 00:26:45.357 the space? I I I think the the case it's 00:26:45.440 --> 00:26:50.397 it's a no-brainer for building uh AI solar powered AI data centers in space. 00:26:50.480 --> 00:26:53.597 Um because as you mentioned it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if 00:26:53.680 --> 00:26:57.917 you're if you're in the shadow uh then it's it's very cold in space just 3° 00:26:58.000 --> 00:27:00.397 Kelvin. So you just have you have solar 00:27:00.480 --> 00:27:04.477 panels facing the sun and then uh a uh 00:27:04.560 --> 00:27:09.357 radiator that's like point like pointed away from the sun. Um so it has no sun 00:27:09.440 --> 00:27:12.317 incident and then it's and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient 00:27:12.400 --> 00:27:15.757 cooling system. So 00:27:15.840 --> 00:27:17.917 uh net net effect is that the lowest 00:27:18.000 --> 00:27:21.677 cost place to put AI will be space and 00:27:21.760 --> 00:27:27.037 that and that'll be true within two years maybe three three at the latest. 00:27:27.120 --> 00:27:31.197 >> Wow. So looking 10 or 20 years out um what 00:27:31.280 --> 00:27:33.517 would how would you describe success 00:27:33.600 --> 00:27:36.877 with AI or space technology and where do 00:27:36.960 --> 00:27:39.917 you see it is that can you are you more 00:27:40.000 --> 00:27:45.197 certain what's going to happen in the next three years or or five or 10 00:27:45.280 --> 00:27:49.357 >> I don't know what's going to happen in 10 years but the rate at which AI is 00:27:49.440 --> 00:27:51.437 progressing 00:27:51.520 --> 00:27:53.437 I think we 00:27:53.520 --> 00:27:57.037 we're we might have AI that is smarter 00:27:57.120 --> 00:27:59.357 than any human by the end of this year. 00:27:59.440 --> 00:28:01.757 Um and and I would say no later than next year. 00:28:01.840 --> 00:28:03.117 >> Wow. 00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:07.597 >> Um and then probably by 2030 or 2031, 00:28:07.680 --> 00:28:10.157 call it 5 years from now, 00:28:10.240 --> 00:28:16.637 uh AI will be smarter than uh all of humanity collectively. 00:28:16.720 --> 00:28:19.997 >> We only have a number of minutes left, but I want I want to humanize you for a 00:28:20.080 --> 00:28:23.437 second >> so there's no speculation that you're 00:28:23.520 --> 00:28:27.837 talking about peace. >> Right. Right. I want to I mean I would 00:28:27.920 --> 00:28:29.837 frame this question by you are the most 00:28:29.920 --> 00:28:32.317 successful entrepreneur industrialist in 00:28:32.400 --> 00:28:35.757 the 21st century maybe beyond. Um, I 00:28:35.840 --> 00:28:39.517 want to so I want to really get this, you know, what inspired you? Who's 00:28:39.600 --> 00:28:43.517 inspired you? What was the foundation of of your 00:28:43.600 --> 00:28:45.117 curiosity? 00:28:45.200 --> 00:28:48.477 And and importantly, what was the what 00:28:48.560 --> 00:28:51.117 was it? Was there a aha moment, an 00:28:51.200 --> 00:28:55.997 epiphany at any time in your life and career? 00:28:56.080 --> 00:28:59.837 >> Well, um, I mean, as a kid, I read a lot of 00:28:59.920 --> 00:29:02.317 science fiction, sci-fi, fantasy books. 00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:03.277 >> Yep. we talked about 00:29:03.360 --> 00:29:07.357 >> um and uh comic books uh and I always 00:29:07.440 --> 00:29:09.837 liked technology. Uh I didn't expect to 00:29:09.920 --> 00:29:12.317 be where I am today seems incredibly 00:29:12.400 --> 00:29:16.397 implausible. Um but uh yeah, I was I was 00:29:16.480 --> 00:29:18.157 inspired by reading about books about 00:29:18.240 --> 00:29:21.437 the future about science fiction and uh 00:29:21.520 --> 00:29:25.597 and I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction forever at some 00:29:25.680 --> 00:29:27.357 point turn science fiction to science 00:29:27.440 --> 00:29:31.437 fact. Um, and uh, 00:29:31.520 --> 00:29:35.597 you know, we want to have like Starfleet 00:29:35.680 --> 00:29:39.997 and Star Star Trek really for for real, like where we actually have giant 00:29:40.080 --> 00:29:44.237 spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to 00:29:44.320 --> 00:29:49.037 other star systems. >> Be beamed up to go back to New York. 00:29:49.120 --> 00:29:51.117 >> You know, I I'd like to just be beamed 00:29:51.200 --> 00:29:55.197 back to New York instead of flying. 00:29:55.280 --> 00:29:58.397 >> Yeah. um 00:29:58.480 --> 00:30:02.557 talk about Star Trek. >> No, I guess my my central I what I would 00:30:02.640 --> 00:30:04.397 call the phil philosoph philosophy of 00:30:04.480 --> 00:30:07.277 curiosity. I'd like to understand um the 00:30:07.360 --> 00:30:11.277 meaning of life, you know, the is the 00:30:11.360 --> 00:30:14.317 standard model of is a standard model of physics correct 00:30:14.400 --> 00:30:17.437 >> regarding the beginning of life, beginning of existence and the end of 00:30:17.520 --> 00:30:20.317 the universe. Um what what questions do 00:30:20.400 --> 00:30:23.037 we not know to ask that we should ask? 00:30:23.120 --> 00:30:28.397 Um, and AI will help us with these things. Um, so I'm just trying to 00:30:28.480 --> 00:30:32.237 understand how do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? 00:30:32.320 --> 00:30:36.557 Maybe they are. Um, and if if we've got if we got spaceships that are traveling 00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:39.117 to other star systems, uh, we may find 00:30:39.200 --> 00:30:41.837 we may encounter aliens and or we may 00:30:41.920 --> 00:30:44.877 find many long dead alien civilizations. 00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:48.717 But I I I'm just I just I just want to know what's going on. kind of curious 00:30:48.800 --> 00:30:51.597 about the the universe and 00:30:51.680 --> 00:30:53.117 um 00:30:53.200 --> 00:30:56.077 that's my philosophy. 00:30:56.160 --> 00:31:00.877 >> Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime? 00:31:00.960 --> 00:31:04.797 >> Uh yeah, I mean I would say like I you know I >> That's a long commitment. 00:31:04.880 --> 00:31:07.677 >> I've been asked >> wasn't that three years each way? 00:31:07.760 --> 00:31:10.637 >> Uh it's six months. >> Six months. That's all it is? 00:31:10.720 --> 00:31:12.157 >> Yeah, six months. But the planets only 00:31:12.240 --> 00:31:13.997 align every every two years. 00:31:14.080 --> 00:31:17.757 >> Okay. So, uh, yeah, I've been asked a 00:31:17.840 --> 00:31:20.717 few times like, "Do I want to, you know, 00:31:20.800 --> 00:31:27.000 die on Mars?" And I'm like, "Yes, but just not on impact." 00:31:29.440 --> 00:31:30.637 That's a good That's a good answer. 00:31:30.720 --> 00:31:32.797 Anyway, uh, we're out of time. I 00:31:32.880 --> 00:31:36.317 hopefully everybody enjoyed this. Um, I 00:31:36.400 --> 00:31:37.997 mean, there's so many myths around Elon 00:31:38.080 --> 00:31:40.637 Musk. I could tell you he's a great 00:31:40.720 --> 00:31:43.597 friend and I constantly learn so much 00:31:43.680 --> 00:31:47.597 from him. Um, and I'm totally inspired 00:31:47.680 --> 00:31:51.837 by what he's what he has done. 00:31:51.920 --> 00:31:55.357 I've been inspired who he is and I'm 00:31:55.440 --> 00:31:57.597 totally inspired by his vision of the 00:31:57.680 --> 00:31:59.997 future and I don't think it's such a bad 00:32:00.080 --> 00:32:02.477 future and I agree with his optimism. So 00:32:02.560 --> 00:32:06.877 Elon, thank you. Any last words? Um 00:32:06.960 --> 00:32:09.997 >> um well I think generally I think my 00:32:10.080 --> 00:32:14.237 last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited 00:32:14.320 --> 00:32:16.237 about the future. >> Good. 00:32:16.320 --> 00:32:18.717 >> Um and and and generally I think for 00:32:18.800 --> 00:32:21.517 quality of life it is actually better to 00:32:21.600 --> 00:32:24.317 on the side of being an optimist and 00:32:24.400 --> 00:32:27.997 wrong rather than a pessimist and right. 00:32:28.080 --> 00:32:31.480 On that note, 00:32:43.520 --> 00:32:47.080 I think you needed