WEBVTT 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.437 There is an ominous new development. And 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:06.157 ominous, I mean ominous. Humans can't 00:00:06.240 --> 00:00:09.277 run a swarm of a thousand drones, but a 00:00:09.360 --> 00:00:11.597 computer can. I'm quite worried that 00:00:11.680 --> 00:00:14.157 we're now at one of these decision 00:00:14.240 --> 00:00:16.797 points, inflection points in the war. 00:00:16.880 --> 00:00:19.037 Historically, Ukraine were was this 00:00:19.120 --> 00:00:21.917 small, really smart, really fast 00:00:22.000 --> 00:00:24.317 innovator, and the Russians were, if you 00:00:24.400 --> 00:00:28.077 will, big, slow, not very capable. 00:00:28.160 --> 00:00:31.437 That's changed. That's a big threat. 00:00:31.520 --> 00:00:33.677 They need some money and they need 00:00:33.760 --> 00:00:38.957 technological help in order to counter this set of waves coming. I'm concerned 00:00:39.040 --> 00:00:40.557 that this is going to get much worse. 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:44.637 And I I'll give you my argument. Hello everyone, it's Richard Angel. I'm in 00:00:44.720 --> 00:00:48.637 Ukraine and welcome to the world podcast. I hope you all had a wonderful 00:00:48.720 --> 00:00:53.277 summer. I certainly did. Yalda will be here next week with another interview. 00:00:53.360 --> 00:00:56.877 And now that we are back, what better way than to start with a chat with Eric 00:00:56.960 --> 00:01:01.517 Schmidt. Eric Schmidt is the former CEO of Google and the ex-chairman of the US 00:01:01.600 --> 00:01:05.197 National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Lesser known, 00:01:05.280 --> 00:01:09.037 however, is that he is a big supporter of Ukraine, helping this country with 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:11.197 drone technology, and he's called what's 00:01:11.280 --> 00:01:17.720 happening here the greatest revolution in warfare in history. 00:01:18.720 --> 00:01:22.237 >> Hello, Eric. >> Yes, good to see you again, Richard. 00:01:22.320 --> 00:01:26.637 >> It's good to see you. So, first of all, why Ukraine? uh what draw drew you to 00:01:26.720 --> 00:01:30.397 this conflict? Why not just sort of watch from the sidelines like like so 00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:32.477 many people are doing? 00:01:32.560 --> 00:01:36.397 >> Um I had worked for the US Pentagon and 00:01:36.480 --> 00:01:41.357 uh enjoyed it. Um I'm not a natural military person, but I like the people 00:01:41.440 --> 00:01:46.157 and I admire what they're doing in Defense of Liberty. So when I saw the 00:01:46.240 --> 00:01:50.077 what I consider to be war crimes being committed by Russians against little old 00:01:50.160 --> 00:01:52.317 ladies in cities, I thought I should do 00:01:52.400 --> 00:01:56.157 something and try to help them. 00:01:56.240 --> 00:01:59.917 And um this is a very different war from 00:02:00.000 --> 00:02:03.597 what everybody thinks it is. And um the 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:06.477 rate of innovation is faster than I've 00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:08.237 ever seen. And I work in tech which has 00:02:08.320 --> 00:02:11.117 been the fastest ever seen anywhere. So, 00:02:11.200 --> 00:02:14.317 you're watching a war that's really 00:02:14.400 --> 00:02:16.957 driving the technological revolution in 00:02:17.040 --> 00:02:21.437 in war in a way that I think people do not appreciate. And I've been privileged 00:02:21.520 --> 00:02:24.397 to watch it and try to help the Ukrainians. 00:02:24.480 --> 00:02:28.877 >> And I look forward to to getting into all of that. And I really agree with 00:02:28.960 --> 00:02:33.197 you. I don't think people truly understand the kind of war that's being 00:02:33.280 --> 00:02:37.757 fought here. I just came back from the frontline area in the east and and I'll 00:02:37.840 --> 00:02:41.117 tell you what I saw there and I would love to your impressions but the Keefe 00:02:41.200 --> 00:02:43.277 post a newspaper in this country had a 00:02:43.360 --> 00:02:46.077 recent report and the headline was AI 00:02:46.160 --> 00:02:49.757 drones from ex Google CEO helps Ukraine 00:02:49.840 --> 00:02:52.077 down Russian shaheds the shaheds are 00:02:52.160 --> 00:02:54.637 these one-way drones that uh that Russia 00:02:54.720 --> 00:02:57.757 has been using great frequency and the 00:02:57.840 --> 00:03:02.877 article went on Ukrainian military sources says firm swiftbeat supplied 00:03:02.960 --> 00:03:04.557 three drone types responsible for 00:03:04.640 --> 00:03:08.077 downing about 90% of intercepted Russian 00:03:08.160 --> 00:03:12.237 shaheds. Is that true? Are are your drones downing 90% of the Russian 00:03:12.320 --> 00:03:15.837 shahads? >> I'd rather not get into any of the of 00:03:15.920 --> 00:03:19.197 the war specifics of that nature. So, 00:03:19.280 --> 00:03:21.997 let's try to talk at the general level, 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:26.237 not at the specific level. Um the the 00:03:26.320 --> 00:03:28.637 key problem now goes something like 00:03:28.720 --> 00:03:29.917 this. 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:33.997 So, first to understand the um 00:03:34.080 --> 00:03:36.557 the battle, you think of a war as like 00:03:36.640 --> 00:03:38.557 people shooting each other with guns 00:03:38.640 --> 00:03:41.277 against each other with tanks and things 00:03:41.360 --> 00:03:44.557 like that. The battlefield today is a no 00:03:44.640 --> 00:03:47.437 man's land where nothing moves because 00:03:47.520 --> 00:03:50.317 there are drones and anti- drones above 00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:54.317 you. So, if you're in a hole, you look 00:03:54.400 --> 00:03:57.277 up. The moment you get out of your hole, 00:03:57.360 --> 00:04:01.917 within about three minutes, you're likely to be spotted and dead. 00:04:02.000 --> 00:04:05.757 Imagine what it's like on either side, by the way, to be in that situation. So, 00:04:05.840 --> 00:04:07.917 the humans are stuck. 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:10.957 And in the case of Ukrainians, they are 00:04:11.040 --> 00:04:12.957 perpetually being bombed by these very 00:04:13.040 --> 00:04:16.237 large glide bombs called KB bombs. 00:04:16.320 --> 00:04:19.117 But the real threat is continuous and 00:04:19.200 --> 00:04:21.517 ubiquitous drone war. 00:04:21.600 --> 00:04:24.637 And the way drones work is it's people 00:04:24.720 --> 00:04:26.797 tend to think of like AI and robots and 00:04:26.880 --> 00:04:29.197 humanoids and so forth. Think of them 00:04:29.280 --> 00:04:31.997 instead as little airplanes that are 00:04:32.080 --> 00:04:34.637 having dog fights with each other. And 00:04:34.720 --> 00:04:37.117 these little airplanes which are uh 00:04:37.200 --> 00:04:39.117 traditionally battery powered or 00:04:39.200 --> 00:04:41.997 gasoline powered run at a speed of about 00:04:42.080 --> 00:04:45.037 100 to 150 miles an hour which is not 00:04:45.120 --> 00:04:48.237 missile speed. And they come across and 00:04:48.320 --> 00:04:49.997 then you have to hit them. And the way 00:04:50.080 --> 00:04:52.717 you hit them is you basically build an 00:04:52.800 --> 00:04:55.837 interceptor which both sides now have 00:04:55.920 --> 00:04:58.237 and that interceptor seeks the other 00:04:58.320 --> 00:05:02.397 drone. So it's drone anti- drone. Um for 00:05:02.480 --> 00:05:05.997 the last year the Ukraine teams um there 00:05:06.080 --> 00:05:10.557 have been quite a few companies in this area have done a fantastic job of of 00:05:10.640 --> 00:05:12.717 downing the so-called shaheds as you 00:05:12.800 --> 00:05:14.877 describe them. Shahed means I think 00:05:14.960 --> 00:05:18.237 peace in in Iranian. But in any case, 00:05:18.320 --> 00:05:20.637 um, the jihads were developed by Iran. 00:05:20.720 --> 00:05:25.117 They were used extensively against Americans in the Iran war and then 00:05:25.200 --> 00:05:27.517 they've been scaled by Russia. There is 00:05:27.600 --> 00:05:30.877 an ominous new development. And ominous, 00:05:30.960 --> 00:05:34.797 I mean ominous. They're the Russians have taken the 00:05:34.880 --> 00:05:36.637 Shaheds and they've added jet engines. 00:05:36.720 --> 00:05:40.877 And what they do is they take these little jet engines that they get from 00:05:40.960 --> 00:05:43.597 China. Um, I looked online and they cost 00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:46.077 say $5,000. So they're not expensive. 00:05:46.160 --> 00:05:48.957 tiny. They're about hand size. Um they 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:51.197 run at 700 centigrade and they produce 00:05:51.280 --> 00:05:54.557 plenty of power. And those drones, those 00:05:54.640 --> 00:05:57.357 shahed enemy drones are going faster 00:05:57.440 --> 00:06:00.077 than the current interceptors. So how do 00:06:00.160 --> 00:06:02.717 you intercept a faster drone? Well, you 00:06:02.800 --> 00:06:07.117 have to add your own jet engine to the anti- drone. So this is called 00:06:07.200 --> 00:06:11.837 adaptation. And so eight months ago when the initial 00:06:11.920 --> 00:06:16.397 drone attacks were working really well, everyone was all smiling because 00:06:16.480 --> 00:06:18.477 collectively we could depend defend 00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:21.197 Ukraine against these shaheds. But as of 00:06:21.280 --> 00:06:23.517 now there is no good defense. This gives 00:06:23.600 --> 00:06:26.957 you a sense of how fast this is going. 00:06:27.040 --> 00:06:28.797 >> So that number and I know you don't want 00:06:28.880 --> 00:06:33.117 to get into specifics. 90% that could be changing because they keep innovating. 00:06:33.200 --> 00:06:35.197 They've added jet engines to the drone. 00:06:35.280 --> 00:06:38.957 So that means your drone interceptors have to get better and faster at finding 00:06:39.040 --> 00:06:42.637 these these faster incoming Russia drones. 00:06:42.720 --> 00:06:45.517 >> A pretty extraordinary thing occurred. 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:47.997 The there's something called the SBU 00:06:48.080 --> 00:06:50.157 which think of it is like the CIA or the 00:06:50.240 --> 00:06:53.597 former KGB and they have a building and 00:06:53.680 --> 00:06:55.837 one of these jet sha heads managed to 00:06:55.920 --> 00:07:00.717 get in hit the building and go into the building just in the right area where 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:04.237 the people were which is sort of horrible. This is the CIA headquarters. 00:07:04.320 --> 00:07:05.997 This is the KGB headquarters. This is a 00:07:06.080 --> 00:07:09.757 big deal. And it turns out if you look 00:07:09.840 --> 00:07:13.277 at that particular shahed, it um took 00:07:13.360 --> 00:07:15.837 off near an area called Dora Pilia 00:07:15.920 --> 00:07:19.757 Pilia, excuse me, um in the southeast 00:07:19.840 --> 00:07:22.797 corner of uh occupied Ukraine in the 00:07:22.880 --> 00:07:25.597 donuts and it flew pretty much a 00:07:25.680 --> 00:07:30.637 straight line along the river right into Kev. How did it get commanded in Kev? 00:07:30.720 --> 00:07:35.037 That was the question. And the answer is that they have a mesh network and the 00:07:35.120 --> 00:07:39.677 Russians have developed a a essentially think of it as a droneto drone 00:07:39.760 --> 00:07:41.597 communication network. So they were able 00:07:41.680 --> 00:07:43.917 to steer this thing straight into that 00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:48.637 window probably from Russia. This means 00:07:48.720 --> 00:07:51.837 that uh it's likely that in the next 00:07:51.920 --> 00:07:54.637 little while um those things will be 00:07:54.720 --> 00:07:57.037 flooding most of Ukraine or at least the 00:07:57.120 --> 00:08:02.637 the eastern part which is where all the fighting is. Now, why do I mention this? 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:06.637 One of the numbers that was said publicly, I don't know if it's true, is 00:08:06.720 --> 00:08:09.117 that the Russians have readied 80,000 of 00:08:09.200 --> 00:08:12.077 these between now and December to hit to 00:08:12.160 --> 00:08:16.157 hit our friends in Ukraine. All of this 00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:18.957 is faster than I expected and I'm used 00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:21.597 to the speed of this war. Uh when I was 00:08:21.680 --> 00:08:24.477 there in May, the number was 10%. Now 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:28.557 it's 50% going to 80% of switch. So the 00:08:28.640 --> 00:08:30.877 key thing to understand about this war 00:08:30.960 --> 00:08:32.957 is it's not just innovation but it's 00:08:33.040 --> 00:08:36.477 innovation to scale right because it's a 00:08:36.560 --> 00:08:39.037 large country and also large war and 00:08:39.120 --> 00:08:41.917 whoever runs plays the game of fastest 00:08:42.000 --> 00:08:44.797 innovation to scale will win this war. 00:08:44.880 --> 00:08:49.357 Notice and I want to be very clear here the Americans are not part of this. Most 00:08:49.440 --> 00:08:51.037 of the NATO countries are not part of 00:08:51.120 --> 00:08:53.597 this. There's very little transfer of 00:08:53.680 --> 00:08:57.437 this knowledge at the moment to the west 00:08:57.520 --> 00:09:00.957 and yet Russia is a future enemy andor 00:09:01.040 --> 00:09:04.157 fighter andor conflier um against NATO. 00:09:04.240 --> 00:09:06.877 That's why NATO was was invented. How 00:09:06.960 --> 00:09:09.437 could we not be capturing this knowledge 00:09:09.520 --> 00:09:12.717 in the west to defend our own countries 00:09:12.800 --> 00:09:17.677 um our own strategies? Right? It's it's crazy. So I I totally agree with you as 00:09:17.760 --> 00:09:21.437 I said earlier that people don't understand the the dynamics of this war. 00:09:21.520 --> 00:09:26.077 So let's let's help them understand it a bit. So the frontline area I'm in I'm in 00:09:26.160 --> 00:09:29.677 Kev right now in the capital which is in the center of Ukraine quite quite far 00:09:29.760 --> 00:09:33.757 away from Russia. Uh but I came back from the east. I was in the city of 00:09:33.840 --> 00:09:35.997 Harkfe which is close to the Russian 00:09:36.080 --> 00:09:39.277 border and all along the Russian border 00:09:39.360 --> 00:09:41.757 there is this area now that Ukrainians 00:09:41.840 --> 00:09:43.517 call the kill zone. They call it the 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:46.717 kill zona. roughly 23,000 square miles 00:09:46.800 --> 00:09:49.757 about the same size uh of Croatia or 00:09:49.840 --> 00:09:52.557 West Virginia. So either a medium-sized 00:09:52.640 --> 00:09:55.517 to small country or ai an American 00:09:55.600 --> 00:09:58.317 state. And inside this kill zone, it is 00:09:58.400 --> 00:10:02.797 what you were describing earlier. If you're in a bunker or you're in a hole 00:10:02.880 --> 00:10:06.557 and you get out within a few minutes, you're probably going to be spotted by a 00:10:06.640 --> 00:10:09.117 drone and killed. So where do you think 00:10:09.200 --> 00:10:11.997 this is going? Is this kill zone getting 00:10:12.080 --> 00:10:14.317 bigger because of the technology? Is all 00:10:14.400 --> 00:10:17.117 of Ukraine going to become a kill zone? 00:10:17.200 --> 00:10:22.237 Where where is this going? >> I'm I'm concerned that this is going to 00:10:22.320 --> 00:10:24.077 get much worse. And I I'll give you my 00:10:24.160 --> 00:10:26.637 argument. And you you've been I was just 00:10:26.720 --> 00:10:29.277 in Hark right before you, so I 00:10:29.360 --> 00:10:31.517 understand what you saw. 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:33.997 So the key thing to understand about 00:10:34.080 --> 00:10:39.037 this new kind of warfare is these weapons are not toys. 00:10:39.120 --> 00:10:40.797 You you look at them and oh, it's a cute 00:10:40.880 --> 00:10:43.837 little drone and so forth. These are 00:10:43.920 --> 00:10:48.237 very powerful uh kinetic bomb carrying 00:10:48.320 --> 00:10:51.997 devices both uh drone and drone killer 00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:55.917 devices. They are highly automated. They 00:10:56.000 --> 00:11:00.717 swarm. Um so for example the Russians have a recent technique where they'll 00:11:00.800 --> 00:11:02.717 take five or 10 shahads and they move 00:11:02.800 --> 00:11:08.077 them in a in a in various ways to try to evade being hit. But let me give you I 00:11:08.160 --> 00:11:09.677 think there are five reasons to think 00:11:09.760 --> 00:11:12.797 it's going to get much worse. 00:11:12.880 --> 00:11:15.357 The first is that the missiles, these 00:11:15.440 --> 00:11:17.757 are ballistic missiles that are being 00:11:17.840 --> 00:11:20.797 launched by Russia against Ukraine. 00:11:20.880 --> 00:11:24.957 Ballistic missiles go up and down. They don't go sideways. 00:11:25.040 --> 00:11:27.597 Russia is increasing the the number of 00:11:27.680 --> 00:11:31.117 those things and they are um they're on 00:11:31.200 --> 00:11:34.237 the order of allegedly 1300 a year. 00:11:34.320 --> 00:11:39.517 Every one of those carries an enormous punch. They are block destroying. They 00:11:39.600 --> 00:11:43.037 don't destroy just a building. they destroy the whole block and the the 00:11:43.120 --> 00:11:45.277 sound they make is terrifying. The 00:11:45.360 --> 00:11:48.237 second thing is this adoption of jets. 00:11:48.320 --> 00:11:52.317 So one way to understand how war will emerge which I did not expect but I 00:11:52.400 --> 00:11:55.117 think is pretty clear is that the entry 00:11:55.200 --> 00:11:57.837 point of war is going to be these very 00:11:57.920 --> 00:12:02.397 small jet engines because they allow you to go very far very fast. They're very 00:12:02.480 --> 00:12:06.957 hard to counter. You can carry a lot of stuff. It is ultimately about mass. 00:12:07.040 --> 00:12:11.197 Similarly, the ballistic and anti-bballistic missiles as you know it 00:12:11.280 --> 00:12:15.517 is again claimed in the open press I don't know the real number that we the 00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:19.517 US is down to 400 Patriot systems because we used so many of them in the 00:12:19.600 --> 00:12:22.957 Iran war we can't give them to anybody else and certainly Ukraine needs them. 00:12:23.040 --> 00:12:25.997 That's the argument. So those are two. 00:12:26.080 --> 00:12:29.357 The third one is the scaling of these uh 00:12:29.440 --> 00:12:32.477 so-called KB bombs. They're glide bombs. 00:12:32.560 --> 00:12:34.237 They're launched from Russian jets 00:12:34.320 --> 00:12:37.597 across the border and they silently hit 00:12:37.680 --> 00:12:40.077 and they carry up to 3,000 kilograms and 00:12:40.160 --> 00:12:42.317 they're precisiong guided using various 00:12:42.400 --> 00:12:44.877 forms of GPS. There's no effective 00:12:44.960 --> 00:12:47.677 counter to those. The fourth one is that 00:12:47.760 --> 00:12:50.077 it's widely believed in Ukraine that 00:12:50.160 --> 00:12:52.237 Russia will announce a mobilization 00:12:52.320 --> 00:12:54.877 which is like a draft of another five or 00:12:54.960 --> 00:12:57.917 six hundred people five or 600,000 00:12:58.000 --> 00:13:01.997 people excuse me after the elections which are occurring in Russia to the 00:13:02.080 --> 00:13:04.557 degree there are elections in September. 00:13:04.640 --> 00:13:08.557 And the fifth one that I don't think is getting very much attention is that 00:13:08.640 --> 00:13:11.037 there Russia has a a Starlink competitor 00:13:11.120 --> 00:13:14.397 called Rusevet RSV 00:13:14.480 --> 00:13:17.117 which sure looks like Starlink. Um and 00:13:17.200 --> 00:13:19.917 it appears to be operational sometime 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:22.797 next year. At that point it'll be very 00:13:22.880 --> 00:13:26.397 hard to stop the communication between 00:13:26.480 --> 00:13:30.317 these airplanes, drones, and cruise missiles that Russia's doing and 00:13:30.400 --> 00:13:32.637 surface. So what's the reason I'm I'm 00:13:32.720 --> 00:13:34.317 giving a long-winded answer is to say 00:13:34.400 --> 00:13:37.597 that what's Ukraine going to do? They 00:13:37.680 --> 00:13:41.997 believe that if Russia wins, they will all be killed. Their families will be 00:13:42.080 --> 00:13:45.517 destroyed and so forth. They're not going to stop fighting. So you can 00:13:45.600 --> 00:13:49.757 imagine a scenario where you end up with what I'm going to call total war. 00:13:49.840 --> 00:13:53.357 Everything in both countries is a target for everything else. That's just 00:13:53.440 --> 00:13:57.197 horrible. And I think that the lesson when people go back and they look at 00:13:57.280 --> 00:14:00.397 this war, they're going to say, "We should have figured a way to get it 00:14:00.480 --> 00:14:03.677 stopped sooner, right, through diplomacy 00:14:03.760 --> 00:14:07.677 or pressure or whatever." But at the moment, what I can say to you and your 00:14:07.760 --> 00:14:10.477 audience is that Ukraine has the 00:14:10.560 --> 00:14:14.717 capability of doing this. They have the courage, which is impossible for me to 00:14:14.800 --> 00:14:18.557 imagine. I don't have that kind of courage to fight. They need Western 00:14:18.640 --> 00:14:21.197 help. in particular, they need some 00:14:21.280 --> 00:14:24.077 money and they need technological help 00:14:24.160 --> 00:14:26.717 in order to counter this set of waves 00:14:26.800 --> 00:14:31.677 coming that if that help comes, I think Ukraine can hold 00:14:31.760 --> 00:14:33.597 >> and they need it quickly. I'm here in 00:14:33.680 --> 00:14:36.237 Kev. Those jet powered drones and the 00:14:36.320 --> 00:14:41.197 ballistic missiles are landing almost with impunity these days because they 00:14:41.280 --> 00:14:42.877 don't have the Patriot interceptors. 00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:47.837 It's really difficult. And I was out in in the in the west right on the edge of 00:14:47.920 --> 00:14:51.837 the kill zone and they're just using fishing line. They're using old fishing 00:14:51.920 --> 00:14:57.117 nets and hanging them between trees or between posts hoping that these drones 00:14:57.200 --> 00:15:00.797 will, you know, get caught up in them and they won't explode. So they're using 00:15:00.880 --> 00:15:04.157 very basic technologies. >> It's important to say that there are 00:15:04.240 --> 00:15:07.357 different layers of the war. So I again 00:15:07.440 --> 00:15:09.917 I'm new to this. Wars are more than one 00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:14.477 weapon and one system. They're really layers. there. Everyone knows about the 00:15:14.560 --> 00:15:18.317 small drone. They're so-called first-person view drones. Uh they use 00:15:18.400 --> 00:15:20.557 fiber optics. Those are used to 00:15:20.640 --> 00:15:22.717 essentially attack infiltration across 00:15:22.800 --> 00:15:26.077 the line. The Russians tactic on the 00:15:26.160 --> 00:15:28.557 front, the kill zone, as you say, is 00:15:28.640 --> 00:15:32.957 they order these very unlucky uh Russian 00:15:33.040 --> 00:15:35.917 uh army members essentially to run 00:15:36.000 --> 00:15:39.037 across fields. Um they're often very 00:15:39.120 --> 00:15:41.837 exposed and the Ukrainians kill them. 00:15:41.920 --> 00:15:44.797 The death rate on the Russia side is 00:15:44.880 --> 00:15:47.597 horrible. It's just horrible. And these 00:15:47.680 --> 00:15:50.797 are human beings, too. Um, and the the 00:15:50.880 --> 00:15:54.157 estimates of the of the rate of of death 00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:59.437 on the Russian side right now are the highest they've ever been. So, the 00:15:59.520 --> 00:16:02.957 Ukraine has to because they don't have as many people, they have to be both 00:16:03.040 --> 00:16:07.677 morally but also strategically more careful. So the Ukrainians tend to hide 00:16:07.760 --> 00:16:09.917 from that and then when they see their 00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:11.997 enemy they they shoot them or destroy 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:16.317 them. Um the next layer is the KB bombs, 00:16:16.400 --> 00:16:20.557 the glide bombs which are responsible for many many deaths on the front lines 00:16:20.640 --> 00:16:24.797 because these poor Ukrainians are sitting in their holes and the KB bombs 00:16:24.880 --> 00:16:29.197 are just pounding around them and you can imagine the PTSD if they survive. 00:16:29.280 --> 00:16:31.437 Then the next layer is the shahed layer 00:16:31.520 --> 00:16:33.677 which I was describing which gives you 00:16:33.760 --> 00:16:36.717 range but not speed but it's fast enough 00:16:36.800 --> 00:16:41.037 can't be countered. And then the biggest of all is the ballistic missile. What's 00:16:41.120 --> 00:16:44.477 interesting about that little hierarchy is you're also going up a cost 00:16:44.560 --> 00:16:47.037 hierarchy. So the first person view 00:16:47.120 --> 00:16:51.197 drones are $600 $800 with fiber $1,000. 00:16:51.280 --> 00:16:54.637 They're inexpensive but they don't go that far. Whereas the ballistic 00:16:54.720 --> 00:16:59.437 missiles, the US numbers are thought to be around three or4 million dollars a 00:16:59.520 --> 00:17:03.117 missile. I don't know the Russian numbers, but let's assume it's a similar 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:05.917 number, maybe half that. So you don't 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:08.317 have as many. So you have a lot, think 00:17:08.400 --> 00:17:10.317 of it as you have a lot of bullets and 00:17:10.400 --> 00:17:13.037 not very many many bombs. And so the 00:17:13.120 --> 00:17:15.517 bullets in this war are largely these 00:17:15.600 --> 00:17:19.037 FPV drones and as you go up, you get to 00:17:19.120 --> 00:17:21.677 these very very expensive bombs. the 00:17:21.760 --> 00:17:24.557 bombs um and they are used to different 00:17:24.640 --> 00:17:26.957 for different tactics. The bombs are 00:17:27.040 --> 00:17:28.717 essentially being used to terrify the 00:17:28.800 --> 00:17:32.317 the the populace of Ukraine and also to 00:17:32.400 --> 00:17:35.357 destroy key infrastructure. Um the jeta 00:17:35.440 --> 00:17:40.157 heads are are being used in many many cruel ways including hitting you know 00:17:40.240 --> 00:17:43.277 children in in kindergartens and things like that. 00:17:43.360 --> 00:17:46.797 >> They they certainly are. I was at a school in a bunker in a kindergarten, a 00:17:46.880 --> 00:17:50.237 school that was built as a bunker because of these bombs. And actually, we 00:17:50.320 --> 00:17:54.797 had to scramble for cover because there were four glide bombs ahead of us. And 00:17:54.880 --> 00:17:58.717 these are big, as you say, they're just big bombs with wings attached to them 00:17:58.800 --> 00:18:01.197 and they're extraordinarily powerful. 00:18:01.280 --> 00:18:03.997 One of the things that's the hardest is 00:18:04.080 --> 00:18:06.557 to I've been I've watched some of their 00:18:06.640 --> 00:18:09.277 command centers and they have built the 00:18:09.360 --> 00:18:14.157 equivalent of a Google Maps which shows you what's going on in the war. Okay. 00:18:14.240 --> 00:18:18.237 Perfectly reasonable. I I know what Google Maps is. And so you see an 00:18:18.320 --> 00:18:21.837 airplane, a Russian airplane which they have on on their system. They get it 00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:25.757 through various sensors like radars and then you can see the glide bomb 00:18:25.840 --> 00:18:28.797 released. And they even can detect what 00:18:28.880 --> 00:18:32.237 kind of glide bomb it is. And your heart 00:18:32.320 --> 00:18:35.597 sinks when you realize that they know 00:18:35.680 --> 00:18:37.997 exactly where it's going and they have 00:18:38.080 --> 00:18:40.877 no idea when I where it's hitting. When 00:18:40.960 --> 00:18:43.997 I was in Kev most recently, we left. We 00:18:44.080 --> 00:18:47.997 were in and out. And they said, "You have to leave now." And I said, "Why?" 00:18:48.080 --> 00:18:53.197 "Because there are two bombers that have been launched that are going to be 00:18:53.280 --> 00:18:56.637 arrived at 3:00 a.m. and you need to be out of here by them." And I said, "No 00:18:56.720 --> 00:18:59.197 problem. I'm leaving." But these poor 00:18:59.280 --> 00:19:02.637 people in Kev were were then in shelters 00:19:02.720 --> 00:19:06.797 all night because of these bombers coming in. They The problem is they know 00:19:06.880 --> 00:19:10.317 where they are, but they don't have a good way to stop them. 00:19:10.400 --> 00:19:13.917 >> Yeah. They're very powerful, as you said. Imagine a bomb that's dropped from 00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:15.837 a plane, but they attach wings to it. 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:20.077 So, you can you drop the bomb from a jet, the wings pop out, and it goes and 00:19:20.160 --> 00:19:24.717 goes and goes and and comes down with extraordinary force. I I want to also 00:19:24.800 --> 00:19:27.037 talk about AI. 00:19:27.120 --> 00:19:31.837 AI is increasingly being used in by both sides in this conflict. There was a 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:33.917 report recently in the New York Times 00:19:34.000 --> 00:19:37.597 that a Russian AI enabled bomb with an 00:19:37.680 --> 00:19:41.037 Nvidia chip inside hit a gas station and 00:19:41.120 --> 00:19:43.597 that the last 00:19:43.680 --> 00:19:46.797 bit of the the drone's journey was 00:19:46.880 --> 00:19:48.557 commanded by AI. That at the end of the 00:19:48.640 --> 00:19:51.997 day AI picked the target. Is that where 00:19:52.080 --> 00:19:54.237 this is going? How is AI increasingly 00:19:54.320 --> 00:19:58.317 being involved in this in this war? 00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:02.797 >> Um there's something called final targeting. And the way to understand it 00:20:02.880 --> 00:20:04.477 and this has been true of weapons for a 00:20:04.560 --> 00:20:09.597 long time is think of it as um 00:20:09.680 --> 00:20:13.197 green, yellow, red. 00:20:13.280 --> 00:20:15.117 And what the weapon does is it has a 00:20:15.200 --> 00:20:19.357 camera and it's green and then it 00:20:19.440 --> 00:20:22.637 basically says yellow means I'm ready to 00:20:22.720 --> 00:20:27.517 arm you. Then the human presses a button and 00:20:27.600 --> 00:20:29.517 then it locks on the target and as the 00:20:29.600 --> 00:20:33.117 target moves it moves to hit the target 00:20:33.200 --> 00:20:37.277 and that final acquisition of the target 00:20:37.360 --> 00:20:39.117 is the kind of thing you're talking 00:20:39.200 --> 00:20:42.797 about. In the particular report I read, 00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:47.197 they claimed that this was actually done completely automatically. 00:20:47.280 --> 00:20:50.717 So in other words, the human didn't press the button. 00:20:50.800 --> 00:20:53.997 This is not AI. This is essentially just 00:20:54.080 --> 00:20:56.957 computer vision, right? You know what 00:20:57.040 --> 00:20:59.357 you're looking for. You see it in the 00:20:59.440 --> 00:21:02.077 camera, right? So you I'll use a 00:21:02.160 --> 00:21:04.557 terrible example. You build a weapon to 00:21:04.640 --> 00:21:08.637 to to look at humans and target humans 00:21:08.720 --> 00:21:11.517 and those hum those human fighters look 00:21:11.600 --> 00:21:13.517 like people. It's not very difficult to 00:21:13.600 --> 00:21:16.077 detect a human walking on a field and 00:21:16.160 --> 00:21:18.877 then target them automatically. 00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:21.917 It is however a violation of the laws of 00:21:22.000 --> 00:21:25.437 war to do that without human the human 00:21:25.520 --> 00:21:29.037 invention that I was describing. So it's 00:21:29.120 --> 00:21:31.037 it's perfectly possible that Russia 00:21:31.120 --> 00:21:34.477 built such a system using um computer 00:21:34.560 --> 00:21:37.837 vision. I'll give you another example, 00:21:37.920 --> 00:21:40.317 another cruel example. U it would be 00:21:40.400 --> 00:21:43.357 relatively easy to make a gun that only 00:21:43.440 --> 00:21:48.157 shot people in the face. I'm not advocating this. Please don't do 00:21:48.240 --> 00:21:50.237 it, Richard. But the important point is 00:21:50.320 --> 00:21:53.037 you have a scope, you see the face, you 00:21:53.120 --> 00:21:57.997 you computers can see faces very well and then it automatically shoots off. 00:21:58.080 --> 00:22:01.437 You see my point? >> So this would be a bomb that was 00:22:01.520 --> 00:22:05.117 basically loaded with images. It said hit this kind of target and when you 00:22:05.200 --> 00:22:07.837 find one, hit it. Don't hit a cow, hit a person. 00:22:07.920 --> 00:22:09.917 >> Yeah. Yes. Choose choose the person, not 00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:12.797 the cow. Choose the tank, not the car. 00:22:12.880 --> 00:22:17.917 >> Uh choose the missile launcher, not the truck. Uh that's that's very 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:22.077 wellestablished technology. It's been around for 20 years in in computing. 00:22:22.160 --> 00:22:25.997 It's what you use every day when you unlock your iPhone or your Android phone 00:22:26.080 --> 00:22:27.757 with a face lock. It's the same 00:22:27.840 --> 00:22:30.957 technology. It's broadly available. 00:22:31.040 --> 00:22:33.917 AI refers to learning 00:22:34.000 --> 00:22:36.877 and AI means you're learning and 00:22:36.960 --> 00:22:39.997 predicting things. AI is not just 00:22:40.080 --> 00:22:43.117 computers being smarter at targeting. 00:22:43.200 --> 00:22:46.637 And we have not yet seen its use in this 00:22:46.720 --> 00:22:49.837 war. What we've seen is automation, 00:22:49.920 --> 00:22:54.477 which is what you would expect. My own view 00:22:54.560 --> 00:22:56.317 is actually more complicated than that. 00:22:56.400 --> 00:23:00.077 I think that what you're going to see is first you're going to see these 00:23:00.160 --> 00:23:04.397 automatically targeting weapons. And remember, the automatic targeting weapon 00:23:04.480 --> 00:23:08.237 will also automatically target the other guy's weapon. So, in other words, 00:23:08.320 --> 00:23:10.477 basically roam around, look for a bad 00:23:10.560 --> 00:23:12.797 drone, and shoot that drone and attack 00:23:12.880 --> 00:23:15.837 it. Just hit it. I think we're going to 00:23:15.920 --> 00:23:20.077 see a lot of that uh on both sides because if you think of it as a drone 00:23:20.160 --> 00:23:24.077 anti- drone war, that's going to get automated. 00:23:24.160 --> 00:23:28.557 So, now the next question is, let's say both sides have that, and I think at the 00:23:28.640 --> 00:23:33.277 rate we're going, both Ukraine and Russia will have that. How will they 00:23:33.360 --> 00:23:34.957 behave? 00:23:35.040 --> 00:23:38.237 Well, humans can't run a swarm of a 00:23:38.320 --> 00:23:41.677 thousand drones, but a computer can. So, 00:23:41.760 --> 00:23:44.477 what I think will happen is computers 00:23:44.560 --> 00:23:48.077 will develop war plans within a swarm. 00:23:48.160 --> 00:23:49.597 So, I'm trying to be as technically 00:23:49.680 --> 00:23:51.677 correct as possible. It will use 00:23:51.760 --> 00:23:55.837 reinforcement learning to learn how to 00:23:55.920 --> 00:23:58.557 best attack the enemy, the target, or 00:23:58.640 --> 00:24:00.877 what have you. And that those algorithms 00:24:00.960 --> 00:24:03.117 will be super secret. 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.397 And my own hope, which is just a hope, 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:08.077 and you know, if you think I'm I'm 00:24:08.160 --> 00:24:10.637 naive, that's okay, is that when both 00:24:10.720 --> 00:24:13.757 sides have that, neither side will be 00:24:13.840 --> 00:24:18.397 willing to attack the other because they don't know what the other side will do 00:24:18.480 --> 00:24:22.317 because the the computer algorithms are so powerful. That's my hope. 00:24:22.400 --> 00:24:26.797 >> An AI mutually assured destruction. But let let's talk a bit for this this 00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:31.437 automated shooting as you you described it in a in an interview with Naom 00:24:31.520 --> 00:24:35.597 magazine. You said in the future, the future will entail humans on the loop 00:24:35.680 --> 00:24:37.197 rather than always in the loop. 00:24:37.280 --> 00:24:40.477 Supervising, auditing, and intervening when something looks wrong, but not 00:24:40.560 --> 00:24:43.437 necessarily authorizing each individual shot. [snorts] 00:24:43.520 --> 00:24:46.557 I think that's what you were just talking about where they're going to be 00:24:46.640 --> 00:24:50.557 drones. They're going to have pre-programmed targets inside of them, 00:24:50.640 --> 00:24:54.877 and when they see that target, they're not going to wait for authorization from 00:24:54.960 --> 00:24:58.557 a person. They're just going to take the shot because they don't have time 00:24:58.640 --> 00:25:02.317 necessarily to do it. You you think that's that's coming in a sense that's 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:03.597 already here? I 00:25:03.680 --> 00:25:07.997 >> I think it's highly likely and um it's 00:25:08.080 --> 00:25:11.517 already interpreted in the United States 00:25:11.600 --> 00:25:16.077 that if a human knows or I helped write 00:25:16.160 --> 00:25:20.077 this when I worked for the Pentagon, so I know what the rule is. Basically, 00:25:20.160 --> 00:25:23.917 under US law, you can't just launch the thing and wander around looking for 00:25:24.000 --> 00:25:26.397 targets for days. But if you've got real 00:25:26.480 --> 00:25:29.757 intelligence and a human is watching, it 00:25:29.840 --> 00:25:32.397 allows for that automation within that. 00:25:32.480 --> 00:25:35.117 You can use the word AI. I'm going to use the technically correct term, which 00:25:35.200 --> 00:25:38.237 is it's an automated activity, looking, 00:25:38.320 --> 00:25:40.397 seeking, hitting, defending, what have 00:25:40.480 --> 00:25:43.917 you. And my guess is that's going to be 00:25:44.000 --> 00:25:50.797 the outcome for us um for the west. Um 00:25:50.880 --> 00:25:53.517 it should work. You would hope that there's some limitations. 00:25:53.600 --> 00:25:55.357 >> That is what I believe. Uh I think that 00:25:55.440 --> 00:25:59.357 that will be the NATO rule. Um I believe 00:25:59.440 --> 00:26:03.597 quite strongly that Russia will not adhere to this and China will not adhere 00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:05.597 to this which is a separate set of moral 00:26:05.680 --> 00:26:08.317 issues. So if we're in this world of 00:26:08.400 --> 00:26:12.077 automated uh strikes which is a a a new 00:26:12.160 --> 00:26:14.237 world, a new kind of warfare and you 00:26:14.320 --> 00:26:16.397 were talking about how that's not really 00:26:16.480 --> 00:26:20.237 AI warfare. AI warfare is even more 00:26:20.320 --> 00:26:22.077 complicated, is more profound because it 00:26:22.160 --> 00:26:25.197 it learns. Um, 00:26:25.280 --> 00:26:28.077 are we starting to see that on the on 00:26:28.160 --> 00:26:32.637 the battlefield where the the systems are learning from themselves and 00:26:32.720 --> 00:26:36.717 teaching themselves lessons and getting better and feeding back into the to the 00:26:36.800 --> 00:26:41.357 loop so that they can drone swarms can coordinate, they can figure out what 00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:45.517 worked, didn't figure out what worked, and improve on the spot learning war 00:26:45.600 --> 00:26:47.597 fighting machines. So, we have not seen 00:26:47.680 --> 00:26:50.797 that yet, but I expect it to be soon. 00:26:50.880 --> 00:26:53.517 And let me give you the argument. Russia 00:26:53.600 --> 00:26:57.837 now has full video, full mesh networks, 00:26:57.920 --> 00:26:59.917 and full reports of how well their 00:27:00.000 --> 00:27:03.117 weapons are doing. It is a natural next 00:27:03.200 --> 00:27:07.517 step for them to learn and improve their 00:27:07.600 --> 00:27:10.157 algorithms. Right? I'm not advocating. 00:27:10.240 --> 00:27:13.997 I'm just saying it it it don't be fooled. these guys are are very 00:27:14.080 --> 00:27:18.717 committed to destroying Ukraine. There's every reason to think that they're in 00:27:18.800 --> 00:27:23.327 they're either in that learning loop or they're beginning to. And by 00:27:23.410 --> 00:27:24.637 [clears throat] the way, the widespread 00:27:24.720 --> 00:27:27.757 use of large language models um uh as 00:27:27.840 --> 00:27:30.477 you know, China releases open- source 00:27:30.560 --> 00:27:35.437 models which are very very capable of doing this. There's some evidence uh 00:27:35.520 --> 00:27:37.117 there have been some reports about 00:27:37.200 --> 00:27:41.517 Russia using those models. Um I can't my 00:27:41.600 --> 00:27:45.837 myself I cannot validate if those reports are true but it sure looks like 00:27:45.920 --> 00:27:48.077 the Chinese and the Chinese are either 00:27:48.160 --> 00:27:53.197 giving or helping the Russia to do this right on the Ukrainian side I've been 00:27:53.280 --> 00:27:55.037 trying to get people in Ukraine to 00:27:55.120 --> 00:27:57.277 understand this AI part but one they're 00:27:57.360 --> 00:28:01.037 in a war and two this AI stuff is hard 00:28:01.120 --> 00:28:05.517 right so this is a good example where the west could really help Ukraine if we 00:28:05.600 --> 00:28:07.917 wanted to >> you mentioned right at the top of our 00:28:08.000 --> 00:28:10.877 conversation that you had a maybe 00:28:10.960 --> 00:28:13.117 hopeful output that a hopeful outlook 00:28:13.200 --> 00:28:16.877 that AI war could be so bad for everyone 00:28:16.960 --> 00:28:19.757 that there's a an incentive to never 00:28:19.840 --> 00:28:22.957 launch it like what happened with with 00:28:23.040 --> 00:28:25.357 nuclear weapons after they were used. 00:28:25.440 --> 00:28:29.997 But what concerns me and I I'd love to hear what you think about this is when 00:28:30.080 --> 00:28:34.317 nuclear weapons were developed during World War II, the the West developed 00:28:34.400 --> 00:28:37.197 them for one reason, because they were worried the Nazis were going to get them 00:28:37.280 --> 00:28:39.677 first. And they were developed by people 00:28:39.760 --> 00:28:44.397 who knew they were creating an an abominable weapon that could destroy 00:28:44.480 --> 00:28:48.317 humanity. And they immediately started putting controls on it even before it 00:28:48.400 --> 00:28:50.637 was done. AI has a different origin 00:28:50.720 --> 00:28:53.597 story. It's an efficiency machine. It's 00:28:53.680 --> 00:28:57.917 it goes back to winning games, trying to 00:28:58.000 --> 00:29:00.637 do things within a certain framework, 00:29:00.720 --> 00:29:02.797 within a certain set of rules better and 00:29:02.880 --> 00:29:06.397 faster than a human. and it's not being 00:29:06.480 --> 00:29:08.877 built in the same way with the same 00:29:08.960 --> 00:29:13.437 amount of fear or concerns. So the difference in the origin story does that 00:29:13.520 --> 00:29:17.437 mean we're not going to be able to control AI warfare the same way we are 00:29:17.520 --> 00:29:20.717 well we're still struggling to control nuclear warfare although we've never had 00:29:20.800 --> 00:29:25.277 another there's never been a use of nuclear weapons since World War II. Do 00:29:25.360 --> 00:29:26.797 you worry about that that that we're 00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:28.477 building the system without the same 00:29:28.560 --> 00:29:32.637 level of of fear concern and oversight? 00:29:32.720 --> 00:29:36.877 Well, it may be that Russia Ukraine will be the catalyst for this understanding 00:29:36.960 --> 00:29:39.037 of the point that you just made. If you 00:29:39.120 --> 00:29:40.317 look at the history of nuclear 00:29:40.400 --> 00:29:43.997 deterrence, we did a bomb in 45. Uh 00:29:44.080 --> 00:29:49.117 Soviet Union did a bomb in 49. There was a 4-year period during which you must 00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:50.957 you and I understand that there were 00:29:51.040 --> 00:29:54.237 people who who uh leaked the information 00:29:54.320 --> 00:29:56.717 from Los Alamos to to Russia to give 00:29:56.800 --> 00:30:00.557 them a head start. um today this is a 00:30:00.640 --> 00:30:02.317 war of innovation that's occurring in 00:30:02.400 --> 00:30:05.997 days not years and so what I've seen in 00:30:06.080 --> 00:30:09.197 the war is that something new will come 00:30:09.280 --> 00:30:12.237 out and within three or four months the 00:30:12.320 --> 00:30:14.157 other side has managed to figure out a 00:30:14.240 --> 00:30:16.957 way to blunt it to diminish it and so 00:30:17.040 --> 00:30:19.357 forth. So it looks like it's a war of 00:30:19.440 --> 00:30:21.677 adaptation in that this group does 00:30:21.760 --> 00:30:24.237 something then then the response is 00:30:24.320 --> 00:30:27.277 adaptation and then it's back and forth. 00:30:27.360 --> 00:30:29.437 So one way to understand the the nature 00:30:29.520 --> 00:30:32.637 of this war is it's a race of innovation 00:30:32.720 --> 00:30:35.597 up this stack that I'm describing. 00:30:35.680 --> 00:30:39.117 So in AI all AI could do would be to 00:30:39.200 --> 00:30:41.757 make that whole cycle faster right 00:30:41.840 --> 00:30:44.717 because AI makes things smarter faster 00:30:44.800 --> 00:30:49.277 you move quicker you design faster and so forth. So the question is if it's 00:30:49.360 --> 00:30:51.357 applied uniformally, does it ultimately 00:30:51.440 --> 00:30:54.717 become a deterrent to both? Or let's say 00:30:54.800 --> 00:30:57.837 that both have it and the Russians 00:30:57.920 --> 00:31:00.237 decide that the Ukrainians don't know 00:31:00.320 --> 00:31:02.397 something that they do and they take a 00:31:02.480 --> 00:31:05.197 risk. Well, that could be a great 00:31:05.280 --> 00:31:08.237 tragedy, right, for both sides. 00:31:08.320 --> 00:31:12.797 >> And finally, thank you for for your time. could go on for for a long time 00:31:12.880 --> 00:31:17.677 and there's many other things but if I can ask one societal question because 00:31:17.760 --> 00:31:21.917 this we've been talking about war and Ukraine are you worried about where AI 00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:23.517 is going and where it's going to take us 00:31:23.600 --> 00:31:25.837 as as human beings people are more and 00:31:25.920 --> 00:31:29.037 more dependent on it people are more 00:31:29.120 --> 00:31:31.277 using it in their everyday lives are you 00:31:31.360 --> 00:31:33.437 are you worried about it sort of having 00:31:33.520 --> 00:31:37.757 a an effect on society making people 00:31:37.840 --> 00:31:39.757 use it like a like a crutch like a 00:31:39.840 --> 00:31:43.037 mental crutch or uh breaking down p 00:31:43.120 --> 00:31:46.797 personal interpersonal relations. Are you worried about its societal impacts, 00:31:46.880 --> 00:31:49.757 not just its impacts on on war? 00:31:49.840 --> 00:31:53.597 Um I worry about AI over everything. But 00:31:53.680 --> 00:31:56.397 first, I am thankful AI is arriving 00:31:56.480 --> 00:31:58.477 because AI will allow us to solve an 00:31:58.560 --> 00:32:01.757 awful lot of problems. Um in the last 00:32:01.840 --> 00:32:05.597 this summer, there were 10 major math problems that were thought unsolvable 00:32:05.680 --> 00:32:07.757 that were solved by AI. That's a big 00:32:07.840 --> 00:32:11.437 deal. Um if you look at efficiency, 00:32:11.520 --> 00:32:16.317 energy use, climate change, health, there are people who are my friends who 00:32:16.400 --> 00:32:18.077 believe that we can solve the majority 00:32:18.160 --> 00:32:20.717 of human diseases within the la next 20 00:32:20.800 --> 00:32:25.037 years. Sign me up for that. So 00:32:25.120 --> 00:32:27.837 the likely outcome of AI is the same as 00:32:27.920 --> 00:32:31.597 all previous technologies. It's broadly 00:32:31.680 --> 00:32:34.557 helpful and it has issues that have to 00:32:34.640 --> 00:32:38.237 get dealt with. you you listed a good 00:32:38.320 --> 00:32:41.117 list, but you listed this year's list. 00:32:41.200 --> 00:32:44.237 You can be quite sure that next year there'll be more concerns as there's 00:32:44.320 --> 00:32:47.117 more adoption. Um, mine is the impact on 00:32:47.200 --> 00:32:51.997 children. I think it's it's I I tend to be fairly libertarian. These are adults. 00:32:52.080 --> 00:32:55.597 They can sort themselves out, but kids are not adults and they need to be 00:32:55.680 --> 00:32:58.157 protected from the the downsides of AI. 00:32:58.240 --> 00:33:02.237 That's an example. Um, if you look at 00:33:02.320 --> 00:33:05.117 the notion of conflict, um, the first 00:33:05.200 --> 00:33:07.757 wars are likely to be cyber attacks and 00:33:07.840 --> 00:33:13.197 we're likely to see that from everyone, including the US, I would guess, uh, 00:33:13.280 --> 00:33:16.237 because the tools have gotten so powerful. The industry has gotten 00:33:16.320 --> 00:33:18.557 smarter and now the industry doesn't 00:33:18.640 --> 00:33:23.437 release them until the basic systems have been, if you will, pressurized 00:33:23.520 --> 00:33:27.197 against their own self attack. In other words, they release it to the special 00:33:27.280 --> 00:33:30.957 people to make sure their systems like Apple, Google, whatever are not 00:33:31.040 --> 00:33:35.117 compromised and then the general public gets active. That's a good thing. So, 00:33:35.200 --> 00:33:37.757 we're learning how as a society how to 00:33:37.840 --> 00:33:40.557 manage the downside. I'm actually to be 00:33:40.640 --> 00:33:43.597 very clear a very strong optimist that 00:33:43.680 --> 00:33:46.157 all the concerns that you described uh 00:33:46.240 --> 00:33:51.197 can be overcome. I don't see them as permanent. Um, and let me just finish by 00:33:51.280 --> 00:33:53.117 saying that part of the reason I wanted 00:33:53.200 --> 00:33:56.317 to talk to you on camera in addition to 00:33:56.400 --> 00:33:59.117 being your incredible coverage and 00:33:59.200 --> 00:34:02.717 service of this war and other wars is 00:34:02.800 --> 00:34:05.917 that I'm quite worried that we're now at 00:34:06.000 --> 00:34:07.997 one of these decision points, inflection 00:34:08.080 --> 00:34:10.877 points in the war. It's not just the 00:34:10.960 --> 00:34:13.277 jetahheads which we discussed at the 00:34:13.360 --> 00:34:15.277 beginning. It's really the sum of 00:34:15.360 --> 00:34:17.997 everything. Historically, Ukraine were 00:34:18.080 --> 00:34:21.197 was this small, really smart, really 00:34:21.280 --> 00:34:23.597 fast innovator. And the Russians were, 00:34:23.680 --> 00:34:26.237 if you will, big, slow, not very 00:34:26.320 --> 00:34:30.237 capable. That's changed. That's a big 00:34:30.320 --> 00:34:33.437 threat. And if you believe in democracy, 00:34:33.520 --> 00:34:35.197 as I do, and you believe that you have 00:34:35.280 --> 00:34:38.317 to fight for democracy, as I do, this is 00:34:38.400 --> 00:34:41.757 an ominous development. All of us need 00:34:41.840 --> 00:34:46.077 to recognize that wars are dynamic and whatever you thought last month has 00:34:46.160 --> 00:34:49.837 changed, these are important new developments that everybody needs to 00:34:49.920 --> 00:34:51.597 understand. If you're not doing 00:34:51.680 --> 00:34:54.717 something to address this, then when you 00:34:54.800 --> 00:34:57.517 when the bad outcome occurs, don't 00:34:57.600 --> 00:34:59.597 complain. 00:34:59.680 --> 00:35:02.237 >> Eric, great conversation. Thank you very 00:35:02.320 --> 00:35:06.237 much. I enjoyed it and I'm sure uh the people who are listening and watching 00:35:06.320 --> 00:35:09.037 will have found it tremendously interesting as well. Thanks very much. 00:35:09.120 --> 00:35:12.557 >> Okay. Thank you, Richard. >> That was Eric Schmidt. I hope you 00:35:12.640 --> 00:35:16.557 enjoyed it. I certainly did. If you want to send us questions, you have comments, 00:35:16.640 --> 00:35:18.557 please do. You can always reach us at 00:35:18.640 --> 00:35:24.280 the worlds sky.uk. Until next time.