There is an ominous new development. And ominous, I mean ominous. Humans can't run a swarm of a thousand drones, but a computer can. I'm quite worried that we're now at one of these decision points, inflection points in the war. Historically, Ukraine were was this small, really smart, really fast innovator, and the Russians were, if you will, big, slow, not very capable. That's changed. That's a big threat. They need some money and they need technological help in order to counter this set of waves coming. I'm concerned that this is going to get much worse. And I I'll give you my argument. Hello everyone, it's Richard Angel. I'm in Ukraine and welcome to the world podcast. I hope you all had a wonderful summer. I certainly did. Yalda will be here next week with another interview. And now that we are back, what better way than to start with a chat with Eric Schmidt. Eric Schmidt is the former CEO of Google and the ex-chairman of the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Lesser known, however, is that he is a big supporter of Ukraine, helping this country with drone technology, and he's called what's happening here the greatest revolution in warfare in history. >> Hello, Eric. >> Yes, good to see you again, Richard. >> It's good to see you. So, first of all, why Ukraine? uh what draw drew you to this conflict? Why not just sort of watch from the sidelines like like so many people are doing? >> Um I had worked for the US Pentagon and uh enjoyed it. Um I'm not a natural military person, but I like the people and I admire what they're doing in Defense of Liberty. So when I saw the what I consider to be war crimes being committed by Russians against little old ladies in cities, I thought I should do something and try to help them. And um this is a very different war from what everybody thinks it is. And um the rate of innovation is faster than I've ever seen. And I work in tech which has been the fastest ever seen anywhere. So, you're watching a war that's really driving the technological revolution in in war in a way that I think people do not appreciate. And I've been privileged to watch it and try to help the Ukrainians. >> And I look forward to to getting into all of that. And I really agree with you. I don't think people truly understand the kind of war that's being fought here. I just came back from the frontline area in the east and and I'll tell you what I saw there and I would love to your impressions but the Keefe post a newspaper in this country had a recent report and the headline was AI drones from ex Google CEO helps Ukraine down Russian shaheds the shaheds are these one-way drones that uh that Russia has been using great frequency and the article went on Ukrainian military sources says firm swiftbeat supplied three drone types responsible for downing about 90% of intercepted Russian shaheds. Is that true? Are are your drones downing 90% of the Russian shahads? >> I'd rather not get into any of the of the war specifics of that nature. So, let's try to talk at the general level, not at the specific level. Um the the key problem now goes something like this. So, first to understand the um the battle, you think of a war as like people shooting each other with guns against each other with tanks and things like that. The battlefield today is a no man's land where nothing moves because there are drones and anti- drones above you. So, if you're in a hole, you look up. The moment you get out of your hole, within about three minutes, you're likely to be spotted and dead. Imagine what it's like on either side, by the way, to be in that situation. So, the humans are stuck. And in the case of Ukrainians, they are perpetually being bombed by these very large glide bombs called KB bombs. But the real threat is continuous and ubiquitous drone war. And the way drones work is it's people tend to think of like AI and robots and humanoids and so forth. Think of them instead as little airplanes that are having dog fights with each other. And these little airplanes which are uh traditionally battery powered or gasoline powered run at a speed of about 100 to 150 miles an hour which is not missile speed. And they come across and then you have to hit them. And the way you hit them is you basically build an interceptor which both sides now have and that interceptor seeks the other drone. So it's drone anti- drone. Um for the last year the Ukraine teams um there have been quite a few companies in this area have done a fantastic job of of downing the so-called shaheds as you describe them. Shahed means I think peace in in Iranian. But in any case, um, the jihads were developed by Iran. They were used extensively against Americans in the Iran war and then they've been scaled by Russia. There is an ominous new development. And ominous, I mean ominous. They're the Russians have taken the Shaheds and they've added jet engines. And what they do is they take these little jet engines that they get from China. Um, I looked online and they cost say $5,000. So they're not expensive. tiny. They're about hand size. Um they run at 700 centigrade and they produce plenty of power. And those drones, those shahed enemy drones are going faster than the current interceptors. So how do you intercept a faster drone? Well, you have to add your own jet engine to the anti- drone. So this is called adaptation. And so eight months ago when the initial drone attacks were working really well, everyone was all smiling because collectively we could depend defend Ukraine against these shaheds. But as of now there is no good defense. This gives you a sense of how fast this is going. >> So that number and I know you don't want to get into specifics. 90% that could be changing because they keep innovating. They've added jet engines to the drone. So that means your drone interceptors have to get better and faster at finding these these faster incoming Russia drones. >> A pretty extraordinary thing occurred. The there's something called the SBU which think of it is like the CIA or the former KGB and they have a building and one of these jet sha heads managed to get in hit the building and go into the building just in the right area where the people were which is sort of horrible. This is the CIA headquarters. This is the KGB headquarters. This is a big deal. And it turns out if you look at that particular shahed, it um took off near an area called Dora Pilia Pilia, excuse me, um in the southeast corner of uh occupied Ukraine in the donuts and it flew pretty much a straight line along the river right into Kev. How did it get commanded in Kev? That was the question. And the answer is that they have a mesh network and the Russians have developed a a essentially think of it as a droneto drone communication network. So they were able to steer this thing straight into that window probably from Russia. This means that uh it's likely that in the next little while um those things will be flooding most of Ukraine or at least the the eastern part which is where all the fighting is. Now, why do I mention this? One of the numbers that was said publicly, I don't know if it's true, is that the Russians have readied 80,000 of these between now and December to hit to hit our friends in Ukraine. All of this is faster than I expected and I'm used to the speed of this war. Uh when I was there in May, the number was 10%. Now it's 50% going to 80% of switch. So the key thing to understand about this war is it's not just innovation but it's innovation to scale right because it's a large country and also large war and whoever runs plays the game of fastest innovation to scale will win this war. Notice and I want to be very clear here the Americans are not part of this. Most of the NATO countries are not part of this. There's very little transfer of this knowledge at the moment to the west and yet Russia is a future enemy andor fighter andor conflier um against NATO. That's why NATO was was invented. How could we not be capturing this knowledge in the west to defend our own countries um our own strategies? Right? It's it's crazy. So I I totally agree with you as I said earlier that people don't understand the the dynamics of this war. So let's let's help them understand it a bit. So the frontline area I'm in I'm in Kev right now in the capital which is in the center of Ukraine quite quite far away from Russia. Uh but I came back from the east. I was in the city of Harkfe which is close to the Russian border and all along the Russian border there is this area now that Ukrainians call the kill zone. They call it the kill zona. roughly 23,000 square miles about the same size uh of Croatia or West Virginia. So either a medium-sized to small country or ai an American state. And inside this kill zone, it is what you were describing earlier. If you're in a bunker or you're in a hole and you get out within a few minutes, you're probably going to be spotted by a drone and killed. So where do you think this is going? Is this kill zone getting bigger because of the technology? Is all of Ukraine going to become a kill zone? Where where is this going? >> I'm I'm concerned that this is going to get much worse. And I I'll give you my argument. And you you've been I was just in Hark right before you, so I understand what you saw. So the key thing to understand about this new kind of warfare is these weapons are not toys. You you look at them and oh, it's a cute little drone and so forth. These are very powerful uh kinetic bomb carrying devices both uh drone and drone killer devices. They are highly automated. They swarm. Um so for example the Russians have a recent technique where they'll take five or 10 shahads and they move them in a in a in various ways to try to evade being hit. But let me give you I think there are five reasons to think it's going to get much worse. The first is that the missiles, these are ballistic missiles that are being launched by Russia against Ukraine. Ballistic missiles go up and down. They don't go sideways. Russia is increasing the the number of those things and they are um they're on the order of allegedly 1300 a year. Every one of those carries an enormous punch. They are block destroying. They don't destroy just a building. they destroy the whole block and the the sound they make is terrifying. The second thing is this adoption of jets. So one way to understand how war will emerge which I did not expect but I think is pretty clear is that the entry point of war is going to be these very small jet engines because they allow you to go very far very fast. They're very hard to counter. You can carry a lot of stuff. It is ultimately about mass. Similarly, the ballistic and anti-bballistic missiles as you know it is again claimed in the open press I don't know the real number that we the US is down to 400 Patriot systems because we used so many of them in the Iran war we can't give them to anybody else and certainly Ukraine needs them. That's the argument. So those are two. The third one is the scaling of these uh so-called KB bombs. They're glide bombs. They're launched from Russian jets across the border and they silently hit and they carry up to 3,000 kilograms and they're precisiong guided using various forms of GPS. There's no effective counter to those. The fourth one is that it's widely believed in Ukraine that Russia will announce a mobilization which is like a draft of another five or six hundred people five or 600,000 people excuse me after the elections which are occurring in Russia to the degree there are elections in September. And the fifth one that I don't think is getting very much attention is that there Russia has a a Starlink competitor called Rusevet RSV which sure looks like Starlink. Um and it appears to be operational sometime next year. At that point it'll be very hard to stop the communication between these airplanes, drones, and cruise missiles that Russia's doing and surface. So what's the reason I'm I'm giving a long-winded answer is to say that what's Ukraine going to do? They believe that if Russia wins, they will all be killed. Their families will be destroyed and so forth. They're not going to stop fighting. So you can imagine a scenario where you end up with what I'm going to call total war. Everything in both countries is a target for everything else. That's just horrible. And I think that the lesson when people go back and they look at this war, they're going to say, "We should have figured a way to get it stopped sooner, right, through diplomacy or pressure or whatever." But at the moment, what I can say to you and your audience is that Ukraine has the capability of doing this. They have the courage, which is impossible for me to imagine. I don't have that kind of courage to fight. They need Western help. in particular, they need some money and they need technological help in order to counter this set of waves coming that if that help comes, I think Ukraine can hold >> and they need it quickly. I'm here in Kev. Those jet powered drones and the ballistic missiles are landing almost with impunity these days because they don't have the Patriot interceptors. It's really difficult. And I was out in in the in the west right on the edge of the kill zone and they're just using fishing line. They're using old fishing nets and hanging them between trees or between posts hoping that these drones will, you know, get caught up in them and they won't explode. So they're using very basic technologies. >> It's important to say that there are different layers of the war. So I again I'm new to this. Wars are more than one weapon and one system. They're really layers. there. Everyone knows about the small drone. They're so-called first-person view drones. Uh they use fiber optics. Those are used to essentially attack infiltration across the line. The Russians tactic on the front, the kill zone, as you say, is they order these very unlucky uh Russian uh army members essentially to run across fields. Um they're often very exposed and the Ukrainians kill them. The death rate on the Russia side is horrible. It's just horrible. And these are human beings, too. Um, and the the estimates of the of the rate of of death on the Russian side right now are the highest they've ever been. So, the Ukraine has to because they don't have as many people, they have to be both morally but also strategically more careful. So the Ukrainians tend to hide from that and then when they see their enemy they they shoot them or destroy them. Um the next layer is the KB bombs, the glide bombs which are responsible for many many deaths on the front lines because these poor Ukrainians are sitting in their holes and the KB bombs are just pounding around them and you can imagine the PTSD if they survive. Then the next layer is the shahed layer which I was describing which gives you range but not speed but it's fast enough can't be countered. And then the biggest of all is the ballistic missile. What's interesting about that little hierarchy is you're also going up a cost hierarchy. So the first person view drones are $600 $800 with fiber $1,000. They're inexpensive but they don't go that far. Whereas the ballistic missiles, the US numbers are thought to be around three or4 million dollars a missile. I don't know the Russian numbers, but let's assume it's a similar number, maybe half that. So you don't have as many. So you have a lot, think of it as you have a lot of bullets and not very many many bombs. And so the bullets in this war are largely these FPV drones and as you go up, you get to these very very expensive bombs. the bombs um and they are used to different for different tactics. The bombs are essentially being used to terrify the the the populace of Ukraine and also to destroy key infrastructure. Um the jeta heads are are being used in many many cruel ways including hitting you know children in in kindergartens and things like that. >> They they certainly are. I was at a school in a bunker in a kindergarten, a school that was built as a bunker because of these bombs. And actually, we had to scramble for cover because there were four glide bombs ahead of us. And these are big, as you say, they're just big bombs with wings attached to them and they're extraordinarily powerful. One of the things that's the hardest is to I've been I've watched some of their command centers and they have built the equivalent of a Google Maps which shows you what's going on in the war. Okay. Perfectly reasonable. I I know what Google Maps is. And so you see an airplane, a Russian airplane which they have on on their system. They get it through various sensors like radars and then you can see the glide bomb released. And they even can detect what kind of glide bomb it is. And your heart sinks when you realize that they know exactly where it's going and they have no idea when I where it's hitting. When I was in Kev most recently, we left. We were in and out. And they said, "You have to leave now." And I said, "Why?" "Because there are two bombers that have been launched that are going to be arrived at 3:00 a.m. and you need to be out of here by them." And I said, "No problem. I'm leaving." But these poor people in Kev were were then in shelters all night because of these bombers coming in. They The problem is they know where they are, but they don't have a good way to stop them. >> Yeah. They're very powerful, as you said. Imagine a bomb that's dropped from a plane, but they attach wings to it. So, you can you drop the bomb from a jet, the wings pop out, and it goes and goes and goes and and comes down with extraordinary force. I I want to also talk about AI. AI is increasingly being used in by both sides in this conflict. There was a report recently in the New York Times that a Russian AI enabled bomb with an Nvidia chip inside hit a gas station and that the last bit of the the drone's journey was commanded by AI. That at the end of the day AI picked the target. Is that where this is going? How is AI increasingly being involved in this in this war? >> Um there's something called final targeting. And the way to understand it and this has been true of weapons for a long time is think of it as um green, yellow, red. And what the weapon does is it has a camera and it's green and then it basically says yellow means I'm ready to arm you. Then the human presses a button and then it locks on the target and as the target moves it moves to hit the target and that final acquisition of the target is the kind of thing you're talking about. In the particular report I read, they claimed that this was actually done completely automatically. So in other words, the human didn't press the button. This is not AI. This is essentially just computer vision, right? You know what you're looking for. You see it in the camera, right? So you I'll use a terrible example. You build a weapon to to to look at humans and target humans and those hum those human fighters look like people. It's not very difficult to detect a human walking on a field and then target them automatically. It is however a violation of the laws of war to do that without human the human invention that I was describing. So it's it's perfectly possible that Russia built such a system using um computer vision. I'll give you another example, another cruel example. U it would be relatively easy to make a gun that only shot people in the face. I'm not advocating this. Please don't do it, Richard. But the important point is you have a scope, you see the face, you you computers can see faces very well and then it automatically shoots off. You see my point? >> So this would be a bomb that was basically loaded with images. It said hit this kind of target and when you find one, hit it. Don't hit a cow, hit a person. >> Yeah. Yes. Choose choose the person, not the cow. Choose the tank, not the car. >> Uh choose the missile launcher, not the truck. Uh that's that's very wellestablished technology. It's been around for 20 years in in computing. It's what you use every day when you unlock your iPhone or your Android phone with a face lock. It's the same technology. It's broadly available. AI refers to learning and AI means you're learning and predicting things. AI is not just computers being smarter at targeting. And we have not yet seen its use in this war. What we've seen is automation, which is what you would expect. My own view is actually more complicated than that. I think that what you're going to see is first you're going to see these automatically targeting weapons. And remember, the automatic targeting weapon will also automatically target the other guy's weapon. So, in other words, basically roam around, look for a bad drone, and shoot that drone and attack it. Just hit it. I think we're going to see a lot of that uh on both sides because if you think of it as a drone anti- drone war, that's going to get automated. So, now the next question is, let's say both sides have that, and I think at the rate we're going, both Ukraine and Russia will have that. How will they behave? Well, humans can't run a swarm of a thousand drones, but a computer can. So, what I think will happen is computers will develop war plans within a swarm. So, I'm trying to be as technically correct as possible. It will use reinforcement learning to learn how to best attack the enemy, the target, or what have you. And that those algorithms will be super secret. And my own hope, which is just a hope, and you know, if you think I'm I'm naive, that's okay, is that when both sides have that, neither side will be willing to attack the other because they don't know what the other side will do because the the computer algorithms are so powerful. That's my hope. >> An AI mutually assured destruction. But let let's talk a bit for this this automated shooting as you you described it in a in an interview with Naom magazine. You said in the future, the future will entail humans on the loop rather than always in the loop. Supervising, auditing, and intervening when something looks wrong, but not necessarily authorizing each individual shot. [snorts] I think that's what you were just talking about where they're going to be drones. They're going to have pre-programmed targets inside of them, and when they see that target, they're not going to wait for authorization from a person. They're just going to take the shot because they don't have time necessarily to do it. You you think that's that's coming in a sense that's already here? I >> I think it's highly likely and um it's already interpreted in the United States that if a human knows or I helped write this when I worked for the Pentagon, so I know what the rule is. Basically, under US law, you can't just launch the thing and wander around looking for targets for days. But if you've got real intelligence and a human is watching, it allows for that automation within that. You can use the word AI. I'm going to use the technically correct term, which is it's an automated activity, looking, seeking, hitting, defending, what have you. And my guess is that's going to be the outcome for us um for the west. Um it should work. You would hope that there's some limitations. >> That is what I believe. Uh I think that that will be the NATO rule. Um I believe quite strongly that Russia will not adhere to this and China will not adhere to this which is a separate set of moral issues. So if we're in this world of automated uh strikes which is a a a new world, a new kind of warfare and you were talking about how that's not really AI warfare. AI warfare is even more complicated, is more profound because it it learns. Um, are we starting to see that on the on the battlefield where the the systems are learning from themselves and teaching themselves lessons and getting better and feeding back into the to the loop so that they can drone swarms can coordinate, they can figure out what worked, didn't figure out what worked, and improve on the spot learning war fighting machines. So, we have not seen that yet, but I expect it to be soon. And let me give you the argument. Russia now has full video, full mesh networks, and full reports of how well their weapons are doing. It is a natural next step for them to learn and improve their algorithms. Right? I'm not advocating. I'm just saying it it it don't be fooled. these guys are are very committed to destroying Ukraine. There's every reason to think that they're in they're either in that learning loop or they're beginning to. And by [clears throat] the way, the widespread use of large language models um uh as you know, China releases open- source models which are very very capable of doing this. There's some evidence uh there have been some reports about Russia using those models. Um I can't my myself I cannot validate if those reports are true but it sure looks like the Chinese and the Chinese are either giving or helping the Russia to do this right on the Ukrainian side I've been trying to get people in Ukraine to understand this AI part but one they're in a war and two this AI stuff is hard right so this is a good example where the west could really help Ukraine if we wanted to >> you mentioned right at the top of our conversation that you had a maybe hopeful output that a hopeful outlook that AI war could be so bad for everyone that there's a an incentive to never launch it like what happened with with nuclear weapons after they were used. But what concerns me and I I'd love to hear what you think about this is when nuclear weapons were developed during World War II, the the West developed them for one reason, because they were worried the Nazis were going to get them first. And they were developed by people who knew they were creating an an abominable weapon that could destroy humanity. And they immediately started putting controls on it even before it was done. AI has a different origin story. It's an efficiency machine. It's it goes back to winning games, trying to do things within a certain framework, within a certain set of rules better and faster than a human. and it's not being built in the same way with the same amount of fear or concerns. So the difference in the origin story does that mean we're not going to be able to control AI warfare the same way we are well we're still struggling to control nuclear warfare although we've never had another there's never been a use of nuclear weapons since World War II. Do you worry about that that that we're building the system without the same level of of fear concern and oversight? Well, it may be that Russia Ukraine will be the catalyst for this understanding of the point that you just made. If you look at the history of nuclear deterrence, we did a bomb in 45. Uh Soviet Union did a bomb in 49. There was a 4-year period during which you must you and I understand that there were people who who uh leaked the information from Los Alamos to to Russia to give them a head start. um today this is a war of innovation that's occurring in days not years and so what I've seen in the war is that something new will come out and within three or four months the other side has managed to figure out a way to blunt it to diminish it and so forth. So it looks like it's a war of adaptation in that this group does something then then the response is adaptation and then it's back and forth. So one way to understand the the nature of this war is it's a race of innovation up this stack that I'm describing. So in AI all AI could do would be to make that whole cycle faster right because AI makes things smarter faster you move quicker you design faster and so forth. So the question is if it's applied uniformally, does it ultimately become a deterrent to both? Or let's say that both have it and the Russians decide that the Ukrainians don't know something that they do and they take a risk. Well, that could be a great tragedy, right, for both sides. >> And finally, thank you for for your time. could go on for for a long time and there's many other things but if I can ask one societal question because this we've been talking about war and Ukraine are you worried about where AI is going and where it's going to take us as as human beings people are more and more dependent on it people are more using it in their everyday lives are you are you worried about it sort of having a an effect on society making people use it like a like a crutch like a mental crutch or uh breaking down p personal interpersonal relations. Are you worried about its societal impacts, not just its impacts on on war? Um I worry about AI over everything. But first, I am thankful AI is arriving because AI will allow us to solve an awful lot of problems. Um in the last this summer, there were 10 major math problems that were thought unsolvable that were solved by AI. That's a big deal. Um if you look at efficiency, energy use, climate change, health, there are people who are my friends who believe that we can solve the majority of human diseases within the la next 20 years. Sign me up for that. So the likely outcome of AI is the same as all previous technologies. It's broadly helpful and it has issues that have to get dealt with. you you listed a good list, but you listed this year's list. You can be quite sure that next year there'll be more concerns as there's more adoption. Um, mine is the impact on children. I think it's it's I I tend to be fairly libertarian. These are adults. They can sort themselves out, but kids are not adults and they need to be protected from the the downsides of AI. That's an example. Um, if you look at the notion of conflict, um, the first wars are likely to be cyber attacks and we're likely to see that from everyone, including the US, I would guess, uh, because the tools have gotten so powerful. The industry has gotten smarter and now the industry doesn't release them until the basic systems have been, if you will, pressurized against their own self attack. In other words, they release it to the special people to make sure their systems like Apple, Google, whatever are not compromised and then the general public gets active. That's a good thing. So, we're learning how as a society how to manage the downside. I'm actually to be very clear a very strong optimist that all the concerns that you described uh can be overcome. I don't see them as permanent. Um, and let me just finish by saying that part of the reason I wanted to talk to you on camera in addition to being your incredible coverage and service of this war and other wars is that I'm quite worried that we're now at one of these decision points, inflection points in the war. It's not just the jetahheads which we discussed at the beginning. It's really the sum of everything. Historically, Ukraine were was this small, really smart, really fast innovator. And the Russians were, if you will, big, slow, not very capable. That's changed. That's a big threat. And if you believe in democracy, as I do, and you believe that you have to fight for democracy, as I do, this is an ominous development. All of us need to recognize that wars are dynamic and whatever you thought last month has changed, these are important new developments that everybody needs to understand. If you're not doing something to address this, then when you when the bad outcome occurs, don't complain. >> Eric, great conversation. Thank you very much. I enjoyed it and I'm sure uh the people who are listening and watching will have found it tremendously interesting as well. Thanks very much. >> Okay. Thank you, Richard. >> That was Eric Schmidt. I hope you enjoyed it. I certainly did. If you want to send us questions, you have comments, please do. You can always reach us at the worlds sky.uk. Until next time.