1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,437 There is an ominous new development. And 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:06,157 ominous, I mean ominous. Humans can't 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,277 run a swarm of a thousand drones, but a 4 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,597 computer can. I'm quite worried that 5 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,157 we're now at one of these decision 6 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,797 points, inflection points in the war. 7 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,037 Historically, Ukraine were was this 8 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,917 small, really smart, really fast 9 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,317 innovator, and the Russians were, if you 10 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:28,077 will, big, slow, not very capable. 11 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,437 That's changed. That's a big threat. 12 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:33,677 They need some money and they need 13 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:38,957 technological help in order to counter this set of waves coming. I'm concerned 14 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:40,557 that this is going to get much worse. 15 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,637 And I I'll give you my argument. Hello everyone, it's Richard Angel. I'm in 16 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,637 Ukraine and welcome to the world podcast. I hope you all had a wonderful 17 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,277 summer. I certainly did. Yalda will be here next week with another interview. 18 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,877 And now that we are back, what better way than to start with a chat with Eric 19 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:01,517 Schmidt. Eric Schmidt is the former CEO of Google and the ex-chairman of the US 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,197 National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Lesser known, 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:09,037 however, is that he is a big supporter of Ukraine, helping this country with 22 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,197 drone technology, and he's called what's 23 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:17,720 happening here the greatest revolution in warfare in history. 24 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,237 >> Hello, Eric. >> Yes, good to see you again, Richard. 25 00:01:22,320 --> 00:01:26,637 >> It's good to see you. So, first of all, why Ukraine? uh what draw drew you to 26 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,397 this conflict? Why not just sort of watch from the sidelines like like so 27 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,477 many people are doing? 28 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:36,397 >> Um I had worked for the US Pentagon and 29 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:41,357 uh enjoyed it. Um I'm not a natural military person, but I like the people 30 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:46,157 and I admire what they're doing in Defense of Liberty. So when I saw the 31 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,077 what I consider to be war crimes being committed by Russians against little old 32 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,317 ladies in cities, I thought I should do 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,157 something and try to help them. 34 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,917 And um this is a very different war from 35 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,597 what everybody thinks it is. And um the 36 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,477 rate of innovation is faster than I've 37 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,237 ever seen. And I work in tech which has 38 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,117 been the fastest ever seen anywhere. So, 39 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,317 you're watching a war that's really 40 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,957 driving the technological revolution in 41 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:21,437 in war in a way that I think people do not appreciate. And I've been privileged 42 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,397 to watch it and try to help the Ukrainians. 43 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:28,877 >> And I look forward to to getting into all of that. And I really agree with 44 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,197 you. I don't think people truly understand the kind of war that's being 45 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,757 fought here. I just came back from the frontline area in the east and and I'll 46 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,117 tell you what I saw there and I would love to your impressions but the Keefe 47 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,277 post a newspaper in this country had a 48 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,077 recent report and the headline was AI 49 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,757 drones from ex Google CEO helps Ukraine 50 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,077 down Russian shaheds the shaheds are 51 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,637 these one-way drones that uh that Russia 52 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,757 has been using great frequency and the 53 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:02,877 article went on Ukrainian military sources says firm swiftbeat supplied 54 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,557 three drone types responsible for 55 00:03:04,640 --> 00:03:08,077 downing about 90% of intercepted Russian 56 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,237 shaheds. Is that true? Are are your drones downing 90% of the Russian 57 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,837 shahads? >> I'd rather not get into any of the of 58 00:03:15,920 --> 00:03:19,197 the war specifics of that nature. So, 59 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,997 let's try to talk at the general level, 60 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:26,237 not at the specific level. Um the the 61 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,637 key problem now goes something like 62 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:29,917 this. 63 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,997 So, first to understand the um 64 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,557 the battle, you think of a war as like 65 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,557 people shooting each other with guns 66 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,277 against each other with tanks and things 67 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,557 like that. The battlefield today is a no 68 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,437 man's land where nothing moves because 69 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,317 there are drones and anti- drones above 70 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,317 you. So, if you're in a hole, you look 71 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,277 up. The moment you get out of your hole, 72 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,917 within about three minutes, you're likely to be spotted and dead. 73 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,757 Imagine what it's like on either side, by the way, to be in that situation. So, 74 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:07,917 the humans are stuck. 75 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,957 And in the case of Ukrainians, they are 76 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:12,957 perpetually being bombed by these very 77 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,237 large glide bombs called KB bombs. 78 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,117 But the real threat is continuous and 79 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,517 ubiquitous drone war. 80 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,637 And the way drones work is it's people 81 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,797 tend to think of like AI and robots and 82 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,197 humanoids and so forth. Think of them 83 00:04:29,280 --> 00:04:31,997 instead as little airplanes that are 84 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,637 having dog fights with each other. And 85 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,117 these little airplanes which are uh 86 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,117 traditionally battery powered or 87 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,997 gasoline powered run at a speed of about 88 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,037 100 to 150 miles an hour which is not 89 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,237 missile speed. And they come across and 90 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:49,997 then you have to hit them. And the way 91 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,717 you hit them is you basically build an 92 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,837 interceptor which both sides now have 93 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,237 and that interceptor seeks the other 94 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:02,397 drone. So it's drone anti- drone. Um for 95 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,997 the last year the Ukraine teams um there 96 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:10,557 have been quite a few companies in this area have done a fantastic job of of 97 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,717 downing the so-called shaheds as you 98 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:14,877 describe them. Shahed means I think 99 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,237 peace in in Iranian. But in any case, 100 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,637 um, the jihads were developed by Iran. 101 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:25,117 They were used extensively against Americans in the Iran war and then 102 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,517 they've been scaled by Russia. There is 103 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,877 an ominous new development. And ominous, 104 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,797 I mean ominous. They're the Russians have taken the 105 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:36,637 Shaheds and they've added jet engines. 106 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,877 And what they do is they take these little jet engines that they get from 107 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,597 China. Um, I looked online and they cost 108 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,077 say $5,000. So they're not expensive. 109 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,957 tiny. They're about hand size. Um they 110 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,197 run at 700 centigrade and they produce 111 00:05:51,280 --> 00:05:54,557 plenty of power. And those drones, those 112 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,357 shahed enemy drones are going faster 113 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,077 than the current interceptors. So how do 114 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,717 you intercept a faster drone? Well, you 115 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,117 have to add your own jet engine to the anti- drone. So this is called 116 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:11,837 adaptation. And so eight months ago when the initial 117 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:16,397 drone attacks were working really well, everyone was all smiling because 118 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,477 collectively we could depend defend 119 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,197 Ukraine against these shaheds. But as of 120 00:06:21,280 --> 00:06:23,517 now there is no good defense. This gives 121 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,957 you a sense of how fast this is going. 122 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:28,797 >> So that number and I know you don't want 123 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:33,117 to get into specifics. 90% that could be changing because they keep innovating. 124 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,197 They've added jet engines to the drone. 125 00:06:35,280 --> 00:06:38,957 So that means your drone interceptors have to get better and faster at finding 126 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,637 these these faster incoming Russia drones. 127 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,517 >> A pretty extraordinary thing occurred. 128 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,997 The there's something called the SBU 129 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,157 which think of it is like the CIA or the 130 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,597 former KGB and they have a building and 131 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:55,837 one of these jet sha heads managed to 132 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,717 get in hit the building and go into the building just in the right area where 133 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,237 the people were which is sort of horrible. This is the CIA headquarters. 134 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:05,997 This is the KGB headquarters. This is a 135 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,757 big deal. And it turns out if you look 136 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,277 at that particular shahed, it um took 137 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,837 off near an area called Dora Pilia 138 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,757 Pilia, excuse me, um in the southeast 139 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,797 corner of uh occupied Ukraine in the 140 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,597 donuts and it flew pretty much a 141 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,637 straight line along the river right into Kev. How did it get commanded in Kev? 142 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:35,037 That was the question. And the answer is that they have a mesh network and the 143 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:39,677 Russians have developed a a essentially think of it as a droneto drone 144 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:41,597 communication network. So they were able 145 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,917 to steer this thing straight into that 146 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:48,637 window probably from Russia. This means 147 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,837 that uh it's likely that in the next 148 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,637 little while um those things will be 149 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,037 flooding most of Ukraine or at least the 150 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:02,637 the eastern part which is where all the fighting is. Now, why do I mention this? 151 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,637 One of the numbers that was said publicly, I don't know if it's true, is 152 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,117 that the Russians have readied 80,000 of 153 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,077 these between now and December to hit to 154 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:16,157 hit our friends in Ukraine. All of this 155 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,957 is faster than I expected and I'm used 156 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,597 to the speed of this war. Uh when I was 157 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,477 there in May, the number was 10%. Now 158 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,557 it's 50% going to 80% of switch. So the 159 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:30,877 key thing to understand about this war 160 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:32,957 is it's not just innovation but it's 161 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,477 innovation to scale right because it's a 162 00:08:36,560 --> 00:08:39,037 large country and also large war and 163 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,917 whoever runs plays the game of fastest 164 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,797 innovation to scale will win this war. 165 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:49,357 Notice and I want to be very clear here the Americans are not part of this. Most 166 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,037 of the NATO countries are not part of 167 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,597 this. There's very little transfer of 168 00:08:53,680 --> 00:08:57,437 this knowledge at the moment to the west 169 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,957 and yet Russia is a future enemy andor 170 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,157 fighter andor conflier um against NATO. 171 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,877 That's why NATO was was invented. How 172 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,437 could we not be capturing this knowledge 173 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,717 in the west to defend our own countries 174 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:17,677 um our own strategies? Right? It's it's crazy. So I I totally agree with you as 175 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,437 I said earlier that people don't understand the the dynamics of this war. 176 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:26,077 So let's let's help them understand it a bit. So the frontline area I'm in I'm in 177 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,677 Kev right now in the capital which is in the center of Ukraine quite quite far 178 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,757 away from Russia. Uh but I came back from the east. I was in the city of 179 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:35,997 Harkfe which is close to the Russian 180 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,277 border and all along the Russian border 181 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,757 there is this area now that Ukrainians 182 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:43,517 call the kill zone. They call it the 183 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,717 kill zona. roughly 23,000 square miles 184 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,757 about the same size uh of Croatia or 185 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,557 West Virginia. So either a medium-sized 186 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,517 to small country or ai an American 187 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,317 state. And inside this kill zone, it is 188 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,797 what you were describing earlier. If you're in a bunker or you're in a hole 189 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,557 and you get out within a few minutes, you're probably going to be spotted by a 190 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,117 drone and killed. So where do you think 191 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,997 this is going? Is this kill zone getting 192 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,317 bigger because of the technology? Is all 193 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,117 of Ukraine going to become a kill zone? 194 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:22,237 Where where is this going? >> I'm I'm concerned that this is going to 195 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,077 get much worse. And I I'll give you my 196 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,637 argument. And you you've been I was just 197 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,277 in Hark right before you, so I 198 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,517 understand what you saw. 199 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,997 So the key thing to understand about 200 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:39,037 this new kind of warfare is these weapons are not toys. 201 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:40,797 You you look at them and oh, it's a cute 202 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,837 little drone and so forth. These are 203 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:48,237 very powerful uh kinetic bomb carrying 204 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,997 devices both uh drone and drone killer 205 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,917 devices. They are highly automated. They 206 00:10:56,000 --> 00:11:00,717 swarm. Um so for example the Russians have a recent technique where they'll 207 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,717 take five or 10 shahads and they move 208 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:08,077 them in a in a in various ways to try to evade being hit. But let me give you I 209 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:09,677 think there are five reasons to think 210 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,797 it's going to get much worse. 211 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,357 The first is that the missiles, these 212 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:17,757 are ballistic missiles that are being 213 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,797 launched by Russia against Ukraine. 214 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,957 Ballistic missiles go up and down. They don't go sideways. 215 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,597 Russia is increasing the the number of 216 00:11:27,680 --> 00:11:31,117 those things and they are um they're on 217 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,237 the order of allegedly 1300 a year. 218 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:39,517 Every one of those carries an enormous punch. They are block destroying. They 219 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:43,037 don't destroy just a building. they destroy the whole block and the the 220 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,277 sound they make is terrifying. The 221 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,237 second thing is this adoption of jets. 222 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,317 So one way to understand how war will emerge which I did not expect but I 223 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,117 think is pretty clear is that the entry 224 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,837 point of war is going to be these very 225 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:02,397 small jet engines because they allow you to go very far very fast. They're very 226 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:06,957 hard to counter. You can carry a lot of stuff. It is ultimately about mass. 227 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:11,197 Similarly, the ballistic and anti-bballistic missiles as you know it 228 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:15,517 is again claimed in the open press I don't know the real number that we the 229 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,517 US is down to 400 Patriot systems because we used so many of them in the 230 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,957 Iran war we can't give them to anybody else and certainly Ukraine needs them. 231 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,997 That's the argument. So those are two. 232 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,357 The third one is the scaling of these uh 233 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,477 so-called KB bombs. They're glide bombs. 234 00:12:32,560 --> 00:12:34,237 They're launched from Russian jets 235 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,597 across the border and they silently hit 236 00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:40,077 and they carry up to 3,000 kilograms and 237 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,317 they're precisiong guided using various 238 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:44,877 forms of GPS. There's no effective 239 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,677 counter to those. The fourth one is that 240 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,077 it's widely believed in Ukraine that 241 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,237 Russia will announce a mobilization 242 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,877 which is like a draft of another five or 243 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,917 six hundred people five or 600,000 244 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,997 people excuse me after the elections which are occurring in Russia to the 245 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,557 degree there are elections in September. 246 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,557 And the fifth one that I don't think is getting very much attention is that 247 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,037 there Russia has a a Starlink competitor 248 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,397 called Rusevet RSV 249 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,117 which sure looks like Starlink. Um and 250 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,917 it appears to be operational sometime 251 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,797 next year. At that point it'll be very 252 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,397 hard to stop the communication between 253 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,317 these airplanes, drones, and cruise missiles that Russia's doing and 254 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,637 surface. So what's the reason I'm I'm 255 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,317 giving a long-winded answer is to say 256 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,597 that what's Ukraine going to do? They 257 00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,997 believe that if Russia wins, they will all be killed. Their families will be 258 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,517 destroyed and so forth. They're not going to stop fighting. So you can 259 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,757 imagine a scenario where you end up with what I'm going to call total war. 260 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:53,357 Everything in both countries is a target for everything else. That's just 261 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:57,197 horrible. And I think that the lesson when people go back and they look at 262 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,397 this war, they're going to say, "We should have figured a way to get it 263 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,677 stopped sooner, right, through diplomacy 264 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,677 or pressure or whatever." But at the moment, what I can say to you and your 265 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,477 audience is that Ukraine has the 266 00:14:10,560 --> 00:14:14,717 capability of doing this. They have the courage, which is impossible for me to 267 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,557 imagine. I don't have that kind of courage to fight. They need Western 268 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,197 help. in particular, they need some 269 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,077 money and they need technological help 270 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,717 in order to counter this set of waves 271 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:31,677 coming that if that help comes, I think Ukraine can hold 272 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:33,597 >> and they need it quickly. I'm here in 273 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,237 Kev. Those jet powered drones and the 274 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:41,197 ballistic missiles are landing almost with impunity these days because they 275 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:42,877 don't have the Patriot interceptors. 276 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:47,837 It's really difficult. And I was out in in the in the west right on the edge of 277 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,837 the kill zone and they're just using fishing line. They're using old fishing 278 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:57,117 nets and hanging them between trees or between posts hoping that these drones 279 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,797 will, you know, get caught up in them and they won't explode. So they're using 280 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,157 very basic technologies. >> It's important to say that there are 281 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,357 different layers of the war. So I again 282 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,917 I'm new to this. Wars are more than one 283 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:14,477 weapon and one system. They're really layers. there. Everyone knows about the 284 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,317 small drone. They're so-called first-person view drones. Uh they use 285 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,557 fiber optics. Those are used to 286 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:22,717 essentially attack infiltration across 287 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:26,077 the line. The Russians tactic on the 288 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,557 front, the kill zone, as you say, is 289 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,957 they order these very unlucky uh Russian 290 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,917 uh army members essentially to run 291 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,037 across fields. Um they're often very 292 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,837 exposed and the Ukrainians kill them. 293 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,797 The death rate on the Russia side is 294 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:47,597 horrible. It's just horrible. And these 295 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,797 are human beings, too. Um, and the the 296 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,157 estimates of the of the rate of of death 297 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:59,437 on the Russian side right now are the highest they've ever been. So, the 298 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,957 Ukraine has to because they don't have as many people, they have to be both 299 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:07,677 morally but also strategically more careful. So the Ukrainians tend to hide 300 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:09,917 from that and then when they see their 301 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:11,997 enemy they they shoot them or destroy 302 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:16,317 them. Um the next layer is the KB bombs, 303 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:20,557 the glide bombs which are responsible for many many deaths on the front lines 304 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:24,797 because these poor Ukrainians are sitting in their holes and the KB bombs 305 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:29,197 are just pounding around them and you can imagine the PTSD if they survive. 306 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,437 Then the next layer is the shahed layer 307 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:33,677 which I was describing which gives you 308 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,717 range but not speed but it's fast enough 309 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:41,037 can't be countered. And then the biggest of all is the ballistic missile. What's 310 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,477 interesting about that little hierarchy is you're also going up a cost 311 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,037 hierarchy. So the first person view 312 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,197 drones are $600 $800 with fiber $1,000. 313 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,637 They're inexpensive but they don't go that far. Whereas the ballistic 314 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:59,437 missiles, the US numbers are thought to be around three or4 million dollars a 315 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,117 missile. I don't know the Russian numbers, but let's assume it's a similar 316 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,917 number, maybe half that. So you don't 317 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,317 have as many. So you have a lot, think 318 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,317 of it as you have a lot of bullets and 319 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,037 not very many many bombs. And so the 320 00:17:13,120 --> 00:17:15,517 bullets in this war are largely these 321 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,037 FPV drones and as you go up, you get to 322 00:17:19,120 --> 00:17:21,677 these very very expensive bombs. the 323 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,557 bombs um and they are used to different 324 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,957 for different tactics. The bombs are 325 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:28,717 essentially being used to terrify the 326 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,317 the the populace of Ukraine and also to 327 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,357 destroy key infrastructure. Um the jeta 328 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:40,157 heads are are being used in many many cruel ways including hitting you know 329 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,277 children in in kindergartens and things like that. 330 00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,797 >> They they certainly are. I was at a school in a bunker in a kindergarten, a 331 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,237 school that was built as a bunker because of these bombs. And actually, we 332 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,797 had to scramble for cover because there were four glide bombs ahead of us. And 333 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,717 these are big, as you say, they're just big bombs with wings attached to them 334 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,197 and they're extraordinarily powerful. 335 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,997 One of the things that's the hardest is 336 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:06,557 to I've been I've watched some of their 337 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,277 command centers and they have built the 338 00:18:09,360 --> 00:18:14,157 equivalent of a Google Maps which shows you what's going on in the war. Okay. 339 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:18,237 Perfectly reasonable. I I know what Google Maps is. And so you see an 340 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,837 airplane, a Russian airplane which they have on on their system. They get it 341 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,757 through various sensors like radars and then you can see the glide bomb 342 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,797 released. And they even can detect what 343 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:32,237 kind of glide bomb it is. And your heart 344 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,597 sinks when you realize that they know 345 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:37,997 exactly where it's going and they have 346 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,877 no idea when I where it's hitting. When 347 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,997 I was in Kev most recently, we left. We 348 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,997 were in and out. And they said, "You have to leave now." And I said, "Why?" 349 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:53,197 "Because there are two bombers that have been launched that are going to be 350 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,637 arrived at 3:00 a.m. and you need to be out of here by them." And I said, "No 351 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,197 problem. I'm leaving." But these poor 352 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,637 people in Kev were were then in shelters 353 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,797 all night because of these bombers coming in. They The problem is they know 354 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,317 where they are, but they don't have a good way to stop them. 355 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,917 >> Yeah. They're very powerful, as you said. Imagine a bomb that's dropped from 356 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,837 a plane, but they attach wings to it. 357 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:20,077 So, you can you drop the bomb from a jet, the wings pop out, and it goes and 358 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:24,717 goes and goes and and comes down with extraordinary force. I I want to also 359 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,037 talk about AI. 360 00:19:27,120 --> 00:19:31,837 AI is increasingly being used in by both sides in this conflict. There was a 361 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:33,917 report recently in the New York Times 362 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,597 that a Russian AI enabled bomb with an 363 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,037 Nvidia chip inside hit a gas station and 364 00:19:41,120 --> 00:19:43,597 that the last 365 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,797 bit of the the drone's journey was 366 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,557 commanded by AI. That at the end of the 367 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,997 day AI picked the target. Is that where 368 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,237 this is going? How is AI increasingly 369 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,317 being involved in this in this war? 370 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,797 >> Um there's something called final targeting. And the way to understand it 371 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,477 and this has been true of weapons for a 372 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:09,597 long time is think of it as um 373 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,197 green, yellow, red. 374 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,117 And what the weapon does is it has a 375 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,357 camera and it's green and then it 376 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,637 basically says yellow means I'm ready to 377 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:27,517 arm you. Then the human presses a button and 378 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,517 then it locks on the target and as the 379 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,117 target moves it moves to hit the target 380 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,277 and that final acquisition of the target 381 00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:39,117 is the kind of thing you're talking 382 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,797 about. In the particular report I read, 383 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:47,197 they claimed that this was actually done completely automatically. 384 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,717 So in other words, the human didn't press the button. 385 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,997 This is not AI. This is essentially just 386 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,957 computer vision, right? You know what 387 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,357 you're looking for. You see it in the 388 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,077 camera, right? So you I'll use a 389 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,557 terrible example. You build a weapon to 390 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,637 to to look at humans and target humans 391 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,517 and those hum those human fighters look 392 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,517 like people. It's not very difficult to 393 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,077 detect a human walking on a field and 394 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,877 then target them automatically. 395 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,917 It is however a violation of the laws of 396 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,437 war to do that without human the human 397 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,037 invention that I was describing. So it's 398 00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:31,037 it's perfectly possible that Russia 399 00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:34,477 built such a system using um computer 400 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,837 vision. I'll give you another example, 401 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,317 another cruel example. U it would be 402 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,357 relatively easy to make a gun that only 403 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:48,157 shot people in the face. I'm not advocating this. Please don't do 404 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,237 it, Richard. But the important point is 405 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,037 you have a scope, you see the face, you 406 00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:57,997 you computers can see faces very well and then it automatically shoots off. 407 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,437 You see my point? >> So this would be a bomb that was 408 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,117 basically loaded with images. It said hit this kind of target and when you 409 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,837 find one, hit it. Don't hit a cow, hit a person. 410 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,917 >> Yeah. Yes. Choose choose the person, not 411 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,797 the cow. Choose the tank, not the car. 412 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:17,917 >> Uh choose the missile launcher, not the truck. Uh that's that's very 413 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:22,077 wellestablished technology. It's been around for 20 years in in computing. 414 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,997 It's what you use every day when you unlock your iPhone or your Android phone 415 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,757 with a face lock. It's the same 416 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,957 technology. It's broadly available. 417 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,917 AI refers to learning 418 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,877 and AI means you're learning and 419 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,997 predicting things. AI is not just 420 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,117 computers being smarter at targeting. 421 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,637 And we have not yet seen its use in this 422 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,837 war. What we've seen is automation, 423 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:54,477 which is what you would expect. My own view 424 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,317 is actually more complicated than that. 425 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,077 I think that what you're going to see is first you're going to see these 426 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,397 automatically targeting weapons. And remember, the automatic targeting weapon 427 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,237 will also automatically target the other guy's weapon. So, in other words, 428 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,477 basically roam around, look for a bad 429 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,797 drone, and shoot that drone and attack 430 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,837 it. Just hit it. I think we're going to 431 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:20,077 see a lot of that uh on both sides because if you think of it as a drone 432 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:24,077 anti- drone war, that's going to get automated. 433 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,557 So, now the next question is, let's say both sides have that, and I think at the 434 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:33,277 rate we're going, both Ukraine and Russia will have that. How will they 435 00:23:33,360 --> 00:23:34,957 behave? 436 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,237 Well, humans can't run a swarm of a 437 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,677 thousand drones, but a computer can. So, 438 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,477 what I think will happen is computers 439 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,077 will develop war plans within a swarm. 440 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:49,597 So, I'm trying to be as technically 441 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,677 correct as possible. It will use 442 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,837 reinforcement learning to learn how to 443 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,557 best attack the enemy, the target, or 444 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,877 what have you. And that those algorithms 445 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,117 will be super secret. 446 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,397 And my own hope, which is just a hope, 447 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,077 and you know, if you think I'm I'm 448 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,637 naive, that's okay, is that when both 449 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,757 sides have that, neither side will be 450 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:18,397 willing to attack the other because they don't know what the other side will do 451 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,317 because the the computer algorithms are so powerful. That's my hope. 452 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,797 >> An AI mutually assured destruction. But let let's talk a bit for this this 453 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:31,437 automated shooting as you you described it in a in an interview with Naom 454 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,597 magazine. You said in the future, the future will entail humans on the loop 455 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,197 rather than always in the loop. 456 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,477 Supervising, auditing, and intervening when something looks wrong, but not 457 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,437 necessarily authorizing each individual shot. [snorts] 458 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,557 I think that's what you were just talking about where they're going to be 459 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,557 drones. They're going to have pre-programmed targets inside of them, 460 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,877 and when they see that target, they're not going to wait for authorization from 461 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,557 a person. They're just going to take the shot because they don't have time 462 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,317 necessarily to do it. You you think that's that's coming in a sense that's 463 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:03,597 already here? I 464 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,997 >> I think it's highly likely and um it's 465 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,517 already interpreted in the United States 466 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:16,077 that if a human knows or I helped write 467 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:20,077 this when I worked for the Pentagon, so I know what the rule is. Basically, 468 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,917 under US law, you can't just launch the thing and wander around looking for 469 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,397 targets for days. But if you've got real 470 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,757 intelligence and a human is watching, it 471 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,397 allows for that automation within that. 472 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,117 You can use the word AI. I'm going to use the technically correct term, which 473 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,237 is it's an automated activity, looking, 474 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,397 seeking, hitting, defending, what have 475 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,917 you. And my guess is that's going to be 476 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:50,797 the outcome for us um for the west. Um 477 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,517 it should work. You would hope that there's some limitations. 478 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,357 >> That is what I believe. Uh I think that 479 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,357 that will be the NATO rule. Um I believe 480 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,597 quite strongly that Russia will not adhere to this and China will not adhere 481 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,597 to this which is a separate set of moral 482 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,317 issues. So if we're in this world of 483 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,077 automated uh strikes which is a a a new 484 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,237 world, a new kind of warfare and you 485 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,397 were talking about how that's not really 486 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,237 AI warfare. AI warfare is even more 487 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,077 complicated, is more profound because it 488 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,197 it learns. Um, 489 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,077 are we starting to see that on the on 490 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,637 the battlefield where the the systems are learning from themselves and 491 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,717 teaching themselves lessons and getting better and feeding back into the to the 492 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:41,357 loop so that they can drone swarms can coordinate, they can figure out what 493 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,517 worked, didn't figure out what worked, and improve on the spot learning war 494 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,597 fighting machines. So, we have not seen 495 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,797 that yet, but I expect it to be soon. 496 00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,517 And let me give you the argument. Russia 497 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,837 now has full video, full mesh networks, 498 00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,917 and full reports of how well their 499 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,117 weapons are doing. It is a natural next 500 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,517 step for them to learn and improve their 501 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,157 algorithms. Right? I'm not advocating. 502 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,997 I'm just saying it it it don't be fooled. these guys are are very 503 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:18,717 committed to destroying Ukraine. There's every reason to think that they're in 504 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:23,327 they're either in that learning loop or they're beginning to. And by 505 00:27:23,410 --> 00:27:24,637 [clears throat] the way, the widespread 506 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,757 use of large language models um uh as 507 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,477 you know, China releases open- source 508 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:35,437 models which are very very capable of doing this. There's some evidence uh 509 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,117 there have been some reports about 510 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,517 Russia using those models. Um I can't my 511 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,837 myself I cannot validate if those reports are true but it sure looks like 512 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,077 the Chinese and the Chinese are either 513 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:53,197 giving or helping the Russia to do this right on the Ukrainian side I've been 514 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,037 trying to get people in Ukraine to 515 00:27:55,120 --> 00:27:57,277 understand this AI part but one they're 516 00:27:57,360 --> 00:28:01,037 in a war and two this AI stuff is hard 517 00:28:01,120 --> 00:28:05,517 right so this is a good example where the west could really help Ukraine if we 518 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,917 wanted to >> you mentioned right at the top of our 519 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,877 conversation that you had a maybe 520 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,117 hopeful output that a hopeful outlook 521 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,877 that AI war could be so bad for everyone 522 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,757 that there's a an incentive to never 523 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,957 launch it like what happened with with 524 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,357 nuclear weapons after they were used. 525 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,997 But what concerns me and I I'd love to hear what you think about this is when 526 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:34,317 nuclear weapons were developed during World War II, the the West developed 527 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,197 them for one reason, because they were worried the Nazis were going to get them 528 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,677 first. And they were developed by people 529 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:44,397 who knew they were creating an an abominable weapon that could destroy 530 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,317 humanity. And they immediately started putting controls on it even before it 531 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,637 was done. AI has a different origin 532 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,597 story. It's an efficiency machine. It's 533 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,917 it goes back to winning games, trying to 534 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,637 do things within a certain framework, 535 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,797 within a certain set of rules better and 536 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,397 faster than a human. and it's not being 537 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,877 built in the same way with the same 538 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,437 amount of fear or concerns. So the difference in the origin story does that 539 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,437 mean we're not going to be able to control AI warfare the same way we are 540 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,717 well we're still struggling to control nuclear warfare although we've never had 541 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:25,277 another there's never been a use of nuclear weapons since World War II. Do 542 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,797 you worry about that that that we're 543 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,477 building the system without the same 544 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,637 level of of fear concern and oversight? 545 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,877 Well, it may be that Russia Ukraine will be the catalyst for this understanding 546 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,037 of the point that you just made. If you 547 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:40,317 look at the history of nuclear 548 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,997 deterrence, we did a bomb in 45. Uh 549 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:49,117 Soviet Union did a bomb in 49. There was a 4-year period during which you must 550 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:50,957 you and I understand that there were 551 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,237 people who who uh leaked the information 552 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,717 from Los Alamos to to Russia to give 553 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,557 them a head start. um today this is a 554 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,317 war of innovation that's occurring in 555 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,997 days not years and so what I've seen in 556 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,197 the war is that something new will come 557 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,237 out and within three or four months the 558 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,157 other side has managed to figure out a 559 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,957 way to blunt it to diminish it and so 560 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,357 forth. So it looks like it's a war of 561 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,677 adaptation in that this group does 562 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,237 something then then the response is 563 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,277 adaptation and then it's back and forth. 564 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,437 So one way to understand the the nature 565 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,637 of this war is it's a race of innovation 566 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,597 up this stack that I'm describing. 567 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,117 So in AI all AI could do would be to 568 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,757 make that whole cycle faster right 569 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,717 because AI makes things smarter faster 570 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:49,277 you move quicker you design faster and so forth. So the question is if it's 571 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,357 applied uniformally, does it ultimately 572 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,717 become a deterrent to both? Or let's say 573 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,837 that both have it and the Russians 574 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,237 decide that the Ukrainians don't know 575 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,397 something that they do and they take a 576 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,197 risk. Well, that could be a great 577 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,237 tragedy, right, for both sides. 578 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:12,797 >> And finally, thank you for for your time. could go on for for a long time 579 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:17,677 and there's many other things but if I can ask one societal question because 580 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,917 this we've been talking about war and Ukraine are you worried about where AI 581 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,517 is going and where it's going to take us 582 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,837 as as human beings people are more and 583 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,037 more dependent on it people are more 584 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,277 using it in their everyday lives are you 585 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,437 are you worried about it sort of having 586 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,757 a an effect on society making people 587 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,757 use it like a like a crutch like a 588 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,037 mental crutch or uh breaking down p 589 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,797 personal interpersonal relations. Are you worried about its societal impacts, 590 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,757 not just its impacts on on war? 591 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,597 Um I worry about AI over everything. But 592 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,397 first, I am thankful AI is arriving 593 00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,477 because AI will allow us to solve an 594 00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,757 awful lot of problems. Um in the last 595 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,597 this summer, there were 10 major math problems that were thought unsolvable 596 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,757 that were solved by AI. That's a big 597 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,437 deal. Um if you look at efficiency, 598 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:16,317 energy use, climate change, health, there are people who are my friends who 599 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,077 believe that we can solve the majority 600 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,717 of human diseases within the la next 20 601 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:25,037 years. Sign me up for that. So 602 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,837 the likely outcome of AI is the same as 603 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,597 all previous technologies. It's broadly 604 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,557 helpful and it has issues that have to 605 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,237 get dealt with. you you listed a good 606 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,117 list, but you listed this year's list. 607 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,237 You can be quite sure that next year there'll be more concerns as there's 608 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,117 more adoption. Um, mine is the impact on 609 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:51,997 children. I think it's it's I I tend to be fairly libertarian. These are adults. 610 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,597 They can sort themselves out, but kids are not adults and they need to be 611 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,157 protected from the the downsides of AI. 612 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:02,237 That's an example. Um, if you look at 613 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,117 the notion of conflict, um, the first 614 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,757 wars are likely to be cyber attacks and 615 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:13,197 we're likely to see that from everyone, including the US, I would guess, uh, 616 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,237 because the tools have gotten so powerful. The industry has gotten 617 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,557 smarter and now the industry doesn't 618 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:23,437 release them until the basic systems have been, if you will, pressurized 619 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,197 against their own self attack. In other words, they release it to the special 620 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,957 people to make sure their systems like Apple, Google, whatever are not 621 00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:35,117 compromised and then the general public gets active. That's a good thing. So, 622 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,757 we're learning how as a society how to 623 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,557 manage the downside. I'm actually to be 624 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,597 very clear a very strong optimist that 625 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,157 all the concerns that you described uh 626 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:51,197 can be overcome. I don't see them as permanent. Um, and let me just finish by 627 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,117 saying that part of the reason I wanted 628 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,317 to talk to you on camera in addition to 629 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,117 being your incredible coverage and 630 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,717 service of this war and other wars is 631 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,917 that I'm quite worried that we're now at 632 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,997 one of these decision points, inflection 633 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,877 points in the war. It's not just the 634 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,277 jetahheads which we discussed at the 635 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,277 beginning. It's really the sum of 636 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,997 everything. Historically, Ukraine were 637 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,197 was this small, really smart, really 638 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,597 fast innovator. And the Russians were, 639 00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,237 if you will, big, slow, not very 640 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,237 capable. That's changed. That's a big 641 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,437 threat. And if you believe in democracy, 642 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,197 as I do, and you believe that you have 643 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,317 to fight for democracy, as I do, this is 644 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,757 an ominous development. All of us need 645 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:46,077 to recognize that wars are dynamic and whatever you thought last month has 646 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,837 changed, these are important new developments that everybody needs to 647 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:51,597 understand. If you're not doing 648 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,717 something to address this, then when you 649 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,517 when the bad outcome occurs, don't 650 00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,597 complain. 651 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,237 >> Eric, great conversation. Thank you very 652 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,237 much. I enjoyed it and I'm sure uh the people who are listening and watching 653 00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,037 will have found it tremendously interesting as well. Thanks very much. 654 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,557 >> Okay. Thank you, Richard. >> That was Eric Schmidt. I hope you 655 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,557 enjoyed it. I certainly did. If you want to send us questions, you have comments, 656 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,557 please do. You can always reach us at 657 00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:24,280 the worlds sky.uk. Until next time.