WEBVTT

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[Speaker 1] Another huge
shout out to Starlink.

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How good do I sound right now?
It's actually great. It's flawless.

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It's flawless. It's shocking.
It's amazing. Nick,

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show this behind the scenes shot
of what it took to get us going.

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Starlink is bananas.

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that's amazing

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Do you guys want to know something about
the Starlink network that I think is just

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kind of coming out now?

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Basically, the Starlink network, because
it's putting out radio waves and it can

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pick up radio waves
and you've got so many of them,

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you've basically got a phased array
telescope looking down on the Earth

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and you can pick up. what would
otherwise be stealth aircraft from above.

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So there's a UFO detector, you're saying?
It's a stealth airplane detector.

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That's a UFO detector. It could be
a UFO detector, but the Starlink...

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Networked.

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basically becomes this incredible radar
system that sits above the Earth to look

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down on things that would normally be
stealth from the surface of the Earth.

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[Speaker 2] So does this mean we don't
have to do a science corner today?

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Because you just did it.

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[Speaker 3] Great to see you. As one
of the architects of Bretton Woods 2.0,

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[Speaker 1] Sats is on a high.
He's coming in hot.

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[Speaker 4] All right, everybody,
welcome back to this week in AI. Sorry,

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all in podcast. And we've got a ton
of news to get to on the docket.

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You're such an idiot.
You're an idiot. I mean,

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it's just the every week is AI on top
of AI on top of AI. You have a show.

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Called This Week in AI, and you cover
nothing about AI. No, no, we cover AI,

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but thank you for the plug.
ThisWeekinAI.AI,

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sign up for the newsletter.
This Week in Superintelligence.

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I'm going to change the name.
This Week in...

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[Speaker 2] What you should say is we
have four super intelligences here.

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[Speaker 4] We have four
super intelligences here.

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To super intelligence, the week's news.
To intelligently discuss the news. Yes,

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and what a week it was. We were
sitting here just a couple of weeks ago,

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or sitting in Los Angeles, I should say,
and there was a bit of a chaotic moment.

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Hey, should we be auditing or...

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de-selling with all this AI
and Three weeks later...

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President Trump, held a super
intelligent summit in D.C.,

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Many of the besties were there,
or three or four, I should say.

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on Tuesday,

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President Trump convened the biggest
names in AI, Elon, Jensen, Zuck, Dario,

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Sundar, Satya, yada, yada, yada.

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all the way down the line,
and everybody from the government as well.

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I could ramble on about this, but Sax,
I have a feeling you were instrumental

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in setting this up. So maybe
I'll just hand it off to you.

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Tell us how this went down so quickly.

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and then what the outcome
is of this situation.

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Super Intelligence Summit.

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[Speaker 2] Well, the reason it happened
so quickly is because President Trump

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convened all of these
people to the White House.

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And I think he's the only person who could
get all the CEOs of all these companies

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in one room.

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I mean, these are the leading companies
in the world across data centers,

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across chips, hyperscalers,
and then obviously frontier models.

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And many of them, frankly,
don't like each other.

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They have disputes with one
another. We all know this.

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They may have lawsuits with one another.

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All of that didn't matter because
President Trump called them to the White

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House for this conversation.

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And I've called it the Bretton
Woods of superintelligence.

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This was the first gathering.

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of really all the critical
players across the entire stack

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of the industry.
And I think we had a really good

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open and honest conversation
about both the opportunities and,

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And the rest of superintelligence.
And as a result of that meeting,

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I'd say during the meeting, we worked out
this agreement that has come to be known

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as the White House Accord
on Superintelligence.

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That was then signed by the six
major frontier companies.

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model companies. And I think we'll now
apply a new rigor and new set of controls

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on the development of superintelligence
so that the public can be more confident

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that this will be done safely.

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And if I could just highlight a few
of the key features. So first of all,

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the companies who are developing these
products acknowledge that they are

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responsible. They have
to be the responsible actors.

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Let's not deflect it onto someone else.

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or anthropomorphize the models
or talk about the United Nations.

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These companies accept responsibility,
number one. Number two, they agree.

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to have internal controls and to have
those internal controls verified by

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an internal team that does that.
But we don't just leave it to,

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quote unquote, self-policing.
It starts there.

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But then you have external auditors
who will then validate and verify.

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that the internal controls are working.
And these companies will set up

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an independent committee of the board
to then receive those reports.

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And as Gavin Baker
pointed out this morning,

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when the board receives a report
from an external auditor,

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you can't disregard that.
It's not optional.

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The board has a massive fiduciary
duty to then act on that. Otherwise,

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their DNO policy can get canceled, right?
So now the board is going to receive

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the report of the external auditor,
and they have to make sure that,

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as a board that they're overseeing,
they're providing oversight to make sure

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that the frontier development
is happening safely. And then finally,

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sitting behind all of that,
you still have the FTC,

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and the SEC, which have the ability and
the responsibility to enforce the public

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commitments of these companies. So
although this agreement was entered into

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voluntarily, the governance that
follows from it is not voluntary.

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It is now voluntary.

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[Speaker 4] It's fiduciary.
This is a critical point.

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[Speaker 5] Because it's
an audit, and D and O,

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for people who may be not familiar
with the directors and officers,

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that's the liability insurance that that
board of directors has in case something

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goes wrong. So this has got teeth to it.
Even though it was voluntary,

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it has deep, deep hooks
into the board of directors.

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[Speaker 2] of that conversation.

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We got the major companies to sign it,
and I think everyone in the room...

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There's basically a consensus around it.
And these controls can now be implemented

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basically immediately or very,
very quickly automatically.

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And it doesn't require new legislation.
It certainly doesn't require some new

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international agreement
that's never going to happen.

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So this is something
that can be done right away.

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I think it's a credit to the president.
And I think this should, in large part,

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I think address many of the concerns that
the public has about the safe development

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of super intelligence. And I think there's
a lot of Democrats right now who don't

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want to give the president credit around
this because they want to keep using it

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as a campaign issue. But the reality is
that I think the president dealt with it.

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swiftly and sensibly and practically
this is way more practical

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than trying to declare a pause

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on frontier development that China would
never go along with or creating some DMV

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for models that, again, would slow us
down to the point where China just wins.

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So this is very practical and it's
immediate and the president deserves

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credit, even though the Democrats
won't give it to him.

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But I'll notice that even Jacob Coxson.

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Where, you know,

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[Speaker 5] in a way you could say
that the whistleblower, quote unquote,

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the so-called rage quit after six weeks,
who is working with the PR firm for the.

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Yes. Yes. I would say fake whistleblower
because he was working with the PR firm

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the whole time, even though he said
he was an official whistleblower or

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the artificial whistleblower. But look,
even he said that he was happy to read

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this. He was giving credit
to the president. So maybe.

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[Speaker 4] Everybody else should.
I mean, even the most cynical person,

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Shamath, looking at this would say, great
first step, right? Like, if you just...

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wanted the

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global UN, United Nations of AI,
this would be a great precursor to that,

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a first step where everybody's
opting in to be regulated,

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to regulate themselves, as we discussed on
this very podcast with the MPAA analogy.

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And here we are three weeks later. Take us
behind the scenes. There was one notable

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Addition. to the group of AI
executives, Dario from Anthropik,

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is obviously very anti-Trump.
He has never shown up for these things.

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The organization is 96% anti- Trump left
leaning, et cetera, but he participated.

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So how did Dario wind up participating
in this? How did he wind up?

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doing dinner one-on-one
with the president.

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Take us to the palace intrigue here.
Dario was a conscientious objector.

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He did not want to participate in any
of this. And now he was front and center.

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I can tell you what I heard,
and I just think it speaks to...

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[Speaker 1] how conscientious
and gracious the president is.

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I think there was like a couple of
previous events He noticed that Dario...

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wasn't invited and actually
just called and said, you know,

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this is an oversight and they
invited him to dinner.

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And I think that's how it started.
And they had dinner, I think,

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two nights before
that was widely reported.

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And then he stayed and he was at
the dinner. So I think it was just...

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very smart, strategic thing to do.
It was also a very...

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conscientious and very polite

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thing to do as well, just to make sure
that this is a broad coalition of people

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that were included. And I think that's
sort of been the general pattern that

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the president has exhibited.
Let me maybe give you a couple of other

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things that happened at the luncheon
that had an impact on me. The first was,

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It sounds like a very simple
statement, but the gravity of it,

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kind of has built in my mind
as I thought about it. He says,

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whoever wins super intelligence wins.
And then he just stopped talking.

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That was the first line of his prepared
remarks. And then he said it again.

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And when you think about it,

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He's completely right. There is no
world in which you're going to...

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have this multinational corpus of people
trying to allocate wins and losses on

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this thing. This is on the order
of the Industrial Revolution. In fact,

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Sachs had some really nice comments
at the luncheon, which framed it as,

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[Speaker 3] even bigger than
the Industrial Revolution.

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He went through the numbers
and it's bigger than

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the industrial revolution and like
three or four other things all added up

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together, this thing is still bigger.

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[Speaker 2] The railroads, the canals,
and the electrical grid combined.

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[Speaker 4] And the pyramids
in the Great Wall of China.

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That was in the Wall
Street Journal last week.

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[Speaker 3] When you
think about it that way,

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It's very important that we win. And so
he started by setting the stage that way.

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He had a couple of other specific things,
which was it's really important that

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The extremely positive use cases...

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that exist out of AI. And now SI.

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Hart demonstrated and he said, you have a
responsibility to lead with the benefits.

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And then he said, you also
have a responsibility to impact

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the local communities
in which you operate.

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And he pointed at Meta as an example
of a company doing really good things,

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with teacher bonuses and hospitals. And we
heard about that from Dina at the All-In

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Summit.

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And he said, you need to continue
to do these things. But meanwhile,

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we have to have the checks and balances
to trust and verify. After the luncheon,

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I had to fly to Orlando.

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Because we at 8090 have
a long-term partnership with...

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Merson Young. And

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I was speaking to their 3,400
partners and one of the things that...

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Ernst & Young in 80-90.

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we're doing was building an entire audit
infrastructure for super intelligence.

00:11:19.442 --> 00:11:24.110
And what's so cool is that we have been
building it for EY as our first customer.

00:11:24.820 --> 00:11:27.115
But on the heels of this,
I think we're going to be able to take

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that infrastructure and roll it
out to everybody, as Saks said,

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because everybody's going to need it.
And there's really three things.

00:11:32.410 --> 00:11:35.730
that you're going to need in an age
of super intelligence so that,

00:11:35.920 --> 00:11:40.380
Boards are protected. CEOs have
visibility and all of the other

00:11:40.900 --> 00:11:44.130
compliance infrastructure and governance
infrastructure of a company like D&O

00:11:44.213 --> 00:11:46.637
insurance and all these other
things are kept in place.

00:11:46.720 --> 00:11:50.910
which is end-to-end traceability, Which is
to say, when you deploy superintelligence,

00:11:50.994 --> 00:11:52.644
you need to know what's going on.

00:11:53.320 --> 00:11:57.495
You need to map it. to the policies so
that you understand what the risks are.

00:11:57.578 --> 00:11:59.775
All companies have standard
operating procedures,

00:11:59.858 --> 00:12:02.985
but you need to know exactly when
you're deploying superintelligence,

00:12:03.069 --> 00:12:05.823
how that builds on top of your
standard operating procedures.

00:12:05.907 --> 00:12:09.313
So you need to map policies to risk.
And then the third is you need to have

00:12:09.396 --> 00:12:10.346
auditable evidence.

00:12:10.900 --> 00:12:13.813
which is your way of showing
all of your downstream ecosystem,

00:12:13.896 --> 00:12:16.809
here's what I've done.
So if anybody taps you on the shoulder,

00:12:16.892 --> 00:12:20.447
whether it's a lawyer, whether it's
an auditor, whether it's a regulator,

00:12:20.530 --> 00:12:24.480
whether it's in a lawsuit, whether it's
a customer, "Hey, how did this happen?"

00:12:24.700 --> 00:12:28.750
You can present something. So these
are like very practical, sane things.

00:12:29.920 --> 00:12:34.300
And you can expect folks like EY now
to deploy this broadly and quickly to all

00:12:34.383 --> 00:12:36.467
of the companies that they work with.

00:12:36.550 --> 00:12:40.239
And this is just one extra step. But if
you think about how fast this happened,

00:12:40.322 --> 00:12:41.922
this is like three weeks before.

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And you have this solution
where the alternative was,

00:12:46.240 --> 00:12:51.010
hit the pause on trillions of dollars
of GDP so that we could sort this out in

00:12:51.093 --> 00:12:52.400
a multinational body.

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The alternative was crazy. So I think
what happened was historic and important.

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Was there any pushback on the Doomerism
narrative? Take us behind the scenes.

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Jensen was really powerful.

00:13:03.760 --> 00:13:08.002
He said something to the effect
of alarmism without solutions

00:13:08.085 --> 00:13:10.140
is unproductive. Hmm.

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which I thought was helpful grounding.
But he said, alarmism with solutions...

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It's helpful. Everybody had the same...

00:13:18.040 --> 00:13:22.710
perspective in the room to be honest
was that directed at dario that comment it

00:13:22.793 --> 00:13:27.584
was just generally said but i think you
know if we had to guess did dario respond

00:13:27.667 --> 00:13:32.518
after that i mean susie and i were sitting
right across from so it's very fun just

00:13:32.601 --> 00:13:37.031
to watch his reactions in general
please unpack it what was his reaction to

00:13:37.114 --> 00:13:41.784
that comment i'd be like he listened got
who moderated the discussion sacks how

00:13:41.868 --> 00:13:46.260
was this moderate were you the moderator
i noticed i didn't get an invite

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[Speaker 4] But Trump's
a pretty good moderator himself.

00:13:49.806 --> 00:13:50.637
Who moderates the discussion?

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[Speaker 2] The president moderates it.
The president actually actively moderates

00:13:54.387 --> 00:13:57.020
it. Oh, yeah. No, no, no.
Give an example of his moderation.

00:13:57.104 --> 00:14:00.099
I would like to take some notes here.
Well, first when he got there,

00:14:00.182 --> 00:14:03.042
you know, this is in the East
Room of the White House, I believe.

00:14:03.125 --> 00:14:06.483
And through the back of the East Room,
you get to where this new corridor to

00:14:06.566 --> 00:14:09.471
the ballroom is going to be.
And so we did a quick tour out there,

00:14:09.554 --> 00:14:11.267
and he showed us what they're building.

00:14:11.350 --> 00:14:13.897
It's really amazing.
This is the new ballroom.

00:14:13.980 --> 00:14:19.393
[Speaker 4] The new ballroom and the new
East Wing. Did you have to wear hats?

00:14:19.476 --> 00:14:23.973
No, no. We walked out there.
What's the sound of that foundation?

00:14:24.056 --> 00:14:29.270
They are making record progress.
You know the thing is like seven stories.

00:14:29.590 --> 00:14:32.032
[Speaker 2] So the ballroom
itself is two stories,

00:14:32.115 --> 00:14:35.921
but it goes five stories down. Oh,
so there's all sorts of stuff that they're

00:14:36.004 --> 00:14:39.760
building. They're bowling alley. No,
For the military. There's all sorts of,

00:14:39.843 --> 00:14:43.530
I know there's like all sorts of vaults
that they want. But in any event,

00:14:43.720 --> 00:14:47.443
And he's going to have it done in like
a year, under budget and on schedule.

00:14:47.527 --> 00:14:52.547
By the way, when it's done, I predict –
That it'll be so nice that...

00:14:52.630 --> 00:14:54.724
All future presidents
will really want to use it,

00:14:54.807 --> 00:14:57.567
and it's things that the White
House has needed for a long time.

00:14:57.650 --> 00:14:59.000
They're going to look back.

00:14:59.260 --> 00:15:01.882
and say, why did they give him
such a hard time doing this?

00:15:01.965 --> 00:15:05.320
It's just a distraction, too, by the way.
The fact that we had a builder in

00:15:05.403 --> 00:15:08.237
the White House who just enjoys
doing it, it's so good at it.

00:15:08.320 --> 00:15:11.877
I mean, why wouldn't you take
advantage of those skills?

00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:16.123
[Speaker 4] All-in annual dinner
party there. We'll have an all-in gala.

00:15:16.206 --> 00:15:19.425
Yeah, anyway, it's going
to be a big upgrade. So anyway,

00:15:19.508 --> 00:15:22.280
he took us on a little
tour of that, and then –

00:15:22.420 --> 00:15:24.727
[Speaker 2] He presided
over the conversation. First,

00:15:24.810 --> 00:15:27.197
he gave some remarks and he
spoke to the whole group.

00:15:27.280 --> 00:15:29.117
And then he started calling on people.

00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:32.183
to give their opinion. And, um,
and so he, he always moderates, uh,

00:15:32.266 --> 00:15:34.197
these things.
What was the most challenging?

00:15:34.280 --> 00:15:37.986
[Speaker 4] Did you have a challenging
moment? We kind of went at somebody,

00:15:38.069 --> 00:15:40.765
a followup question,
anything like that? Well, he just,

00:15:40.848 --> 00:15:44.150
he kind of asked people what they
think and how there's a followup.

00:15:44.234 --> 00:15:46.760
And then we had a breakout
session of the six, uh,

00:15:46.990 --> 00:15:49.217
[Speaker 2] frontier model companies.

00:15:49.300 --> 00:15:50.180
And the...

00:15:50.470 --> 00:15:55.103
[Speaker 4] Roosevelt Room, I believe.
And that's where we kind of hammered out

00:15:55.186 --> 00:15:56.357
the accord. Although,

00:15:56.440 --> 00:15:58.776
[Speaker 2] when you're
hammering out that accord,

00:15:58.859 --> 00:16:01.146
are you literally there
typing it in Google Docs?

00:16:01.230 --> 00:16:04.823
And who's responsible for this typo?
There was a typo in the tweeted version

00:16:04.907 --> 00:16:08.327
that became- Yeah, I don't want to say
you're responsible for that, but-

00:16:08.410 --> 00:16:12.457
But if that's the only thing people can
find to object to, that's not so bad.

00:16:12.540 --> 00:16:16.494
[Speaker 4] Was Satya in Microsoft Word
and he just had to type in too fast?

00:16:16.578 --> 00:16:18.490
Yeah, I don't know. But basically...

00:16:19.420 --> 00:16:22.764
[Speaker 2] What happened is Zuck
and Jensen talked through some of

00:16:22.848 --> 00:16:27.144
the high-level principles of in the
main luncheon. And then Mike Johnson,

00:16:27.227 --> 00:16:31.520
the speaker of the house actually had
a copy and he read the whole thing.

00:16:31.750 --> 00:16:37.130
And then we discussed it and there
was general agreement and accord with it.

00:16:37.270 --> 00:16:40.637
And then we did the breakout session
and there was some wordsmithing,

00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:44.437
not much, though, to be honest. Everyone
was just good with it. Now, we had,

00:16:44.520 --> 00:16:48.337
I mean, the White House had a statement
that had been circulated to the groups

00:16:48.420 --> 00:16:51.287
in advance that it was a couple
of paragraphs. But frankly,

00:16:51.370 --> 00:16:54.137
this other statement had more
meat on the bone. You know,

00:16:54.220 --> 00:16:58.237
the original statement had the statement
of responsibility and it had the creation

00:16:58.320 --> 00:17:01.937
of a working group to discuss, you know,
safety issues on an ongoing basis

00:17:02.020 --> 00:17:03.270
and share best practices.

00:17:07.270 --> 00:17:11.897
audits in the committee of the board, And
I think it's been publicly reported now,

00:17:11.980 --> 00:17:16.900
so I'm not really giving anything away,
that Zuckerberg and then Jensen, I think –

00:17:17.080 --> 00:17:19.220
had kind of come forward with that idea.

00:17:19.510 --> 00:17:21.457
And everyone was good with it.

00:17:21.540 --> 00:17:24.519
[Speaker 4] Any notable moments
where somebody was like, hey,

00:17:24.603 --> 00:17:26.979
I need a comma here or I
want to put an end here.

00:17:27.063 --> 00:17:30.594
I want to add something to this.
Any notable edits? I mean, like I said,

00:17:30.678 --> 00:17:34.611
I mean, people are generally good with it.
And they read it and everyone's like,

00:17:34.694 --> 00:17:38.828
yes. Which part do you think has the most
teeth will be the most effective at making

00:17:38.912 --> 00:17:41.891
things more secure?
The external audits. The external audits.

00:17:41.974 --> 00:17:44.401
Who's going to do an external
audit then, I guess?

00:17:44.484 --> 00:17:48.250
Is it going to be an Ernst & Young
type thing? PricewaterhouseCoopers or...

00:17:48.580 --> 00:17:51.966
[Speaker 2] KPMG? It might be they
should be professional auditors,

00:17:52.049 --> 00:17:55.000
not these NGOs. That's my view.
You're going to see EY...

00:17:55.630 --> 00:17:57.237
[Speaker 4] in short order
here or down something.

00:17:57.320 --> 00:17:59.357
[Speaker 3] And Friedberg,
when you look at this,

00:17:59.440 --> 00:18:02.994
[Speaker 4] in terms of the speed
and velocity it happened, and you're,

00:18:03.077 --> 00:18:04.460
I guess, on the president's

00:18:04.930 --> 00:18:08.934
Science and Technology Council now.
Maybe you could speak to, you know,

00:18:09.017 --> 00:18:13.770
how quickly this is all occurring and what
the impact might be in terms of America's

00:18:13.853 --> 00:18:17.250
competitiveness, because you've
had concerns, hey, maybe...

00:18:18.010 --> 00:18:22.018
Slowing down here means China catches up.
So maybe you could talk a little bit

00:18:22.101 --> 00:18:25.900
to your prediction, if any, of the
alignment here of all of the companies.

00:18:25.983 --> 00:18:28.680
Also of note, just for the
audience, people are like,

00:18:28.763 --> 00:18:32.876
Sam Altman's not there. His partner, Greg,
was there. So Sam was doing, I guess,

00:18:32.959 --> 00:18:35.110
the launch of some new products they had.

00:18:35.860 --> 00:18:40.340
But OpenAI was obviously represented.
So maybe you could talk a little bit about

00:18:40.630 --> 00:18:44.424
What you think the impact this will
have on maybe the American public and

00:18:44.507 --> 00:18:47.740
their view of AI? I mean,
look, I think we are...

00:18:48.070 --> 00:18:52.874
[Speaker 3] We always assumed in the
sci-fi novels that we would be in an era

00:18:52.957 --> 00:18:54.290
of having robot wars.

00:18:54.640 --> 00:19:00.826
And I think we fail to recognize that the
software came first and we are actually

00:19:00.909 --> 00:19:06.430
having the AI wars. And there's a war that
I think we're in the middle of right now.

00:19:06.580 --> 00:19:10.080
where there's kind of one
side that wants to...

00:19:10.420 --> 00:19:13.420
centralized, control...

00:19:13.540 --> 00:19:19.720
manage, regulate, whatever the term
of the day might be, the technology.

00:19:20.410 --> 00:19:24.169
And there's another side that I
think is cognizant of the reality of

00:19:24.253 --> 00:19:27.503
the technology, which is that
it is effectively ubiquitous.

00:19:27.587 --> 00:19:30.442
We talked about this in
the past due to open source,

00:19:30.525 --> 00:19:32.390
open weight models proliferating.

00:19:32.710 --> 00:19:35.470
The fact that you can
run models on small...

00:19:35.590 --> 00:19:40.285
local machines, that you don't
need large clusters to do things,

00:19:40.368 --> 00:19:44.250
and that we're seeing model
after model come out now

00:19:44.440 --> 00:19:48.023
that are not under the jurisdiction
of some centralized system or agency.

00:19:48.106 --> 00:19:51.220
Therefore, it becomes very hard
and practically impossible to,

00:19:51.670 --> 00:19:54.410
to actually regulate
the development of the software.

00:19:54.790 --> 00:19:57.590
That's the truth. It is what it is.
You may not like it,

00:19:58.000 --> 00:19:59.050
But it is what it is.

00:20:00.020 --> 00:20:02.577
[Speaker 1] And those two sides
are going to continue to fight.

00:20:02.660 --> 00:20:05.800
I think that the risks will rise.

00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:11.020
And as that happens, I'm going to make
two predictions to your question.

00:20:11.940 --> 00:20:16.360
The first one is that I think we will
see a massive rise in defense systems.

00:20:18.000 --> 00:20:22.909
There is no turning off the open source,
open weight models or shutting down all

00:20:22.992 --> 00:20:26.217
the data centers or centralizing
command and control.

00:20:26.300 --> 00:20:29.280
There are 197 countries on Earth.

00:20:29.700 --> 00:20:32.880
They each have sovereignty.
There's energy everywhere.

00:20:33.060 --> 00:20:34.757
They're all connected to the Internet.

00:20:34.840 --> 00:20:36.990
Data centers will exist
all over the world.

00:20:37.540 --> 00:20:42.002
So the attempt to try and centralize
and manage the control of the software,

00:20:42.085 --> 00:20:43.760
I think, is a fool's errand.

00:20:44.800 --> 00:20:48.364
But I do think that it's going to mandate,
because the risks will rise,

00:20:48.447 --> 00:20:49.957
an increased amount of defense.

00:20:50.040 --> 00:20:53.374
And so I think, you know,
companies like Palo Alto Networks,

00:20:53.457 --> 00:20:56.676
I think the investment in this space,
what I heard in D.C.

00:20:56.760 --> 00:21:00.860
this week was some Fortune 50 CEOs
are very worried about cyber defense.

00:21:01.440 --> 00:21:04.888
That means they're going to start to make
this their number one priority to address

00:21:04.972 --> 00:21:05.922
at the board level.

00:21:06.280 --> 00:21:09.097
That means the budgets for cyber
defense are going to go through the roof.

00:21:09.180 --> 00:21:10.730
Now, let me ask you a question.

00:21:11.140 --> 00:21:13.571
When you have to do cyber
defense in an era of A.I.,

00:21:13.655 --> 00:21:17.155
are you going to use old school
software or are you going to use A.I.?

00:21:17.700 --> 00:21:19.760
Obviously, you're going to use A.I.

00:21:20.040 --> 00:21:25.815
And because of that, because cyber
defense is going to need to grow, the U.S.

00:21:25.899 --> 00:21:30.540
is going to need to provide
competitive AI for cyber defense.

00:21:31.300 --> 00:21:33.840
It is a classic arms race scenario.

00:21:34.640 --> 00:21:38.900
And so the U.S. cannot simply step
back and pause and turn off AI.

00:21:39.100 --> 00:21:41.000
It is already everywhere in the world.

00:21:41.420 --> 00:21:42.877
Therefore, the risks are rising.

00:21:42.960 --> 00:21:48.142
Therefore, we need to increase
our investment in AI to maintain our cyber

00:21:48.225 --> 00:21:49.740
defense capabilities.

00:21:50.040 --> 00:21:52.752
both at the enterprise level
and at the government level,

00:21:52.835 --> 00:21:54.517
and potentially even at the civilian

00:21:54.600 --> 00:22:00.308
consumer level. So I think that the cyber
defense necessity actually mandates

00:22:00.391 --> 00:22:01.737
that we continue to

00:22:01.820 --> 00:22:06.158
build out data centers to support it. The
second prediction I'll make is I think 12

00:22:06.241 --> 00:22:06.797
to 18 months

00:22:06.880 --> 00:22:10.161
from now, we're going to shift away from
this conversation about managing models,

00:22:10.245 --> 00:22:13.615
regulating models, controlling models,
estimating models, scoring models,

00:22:13.699 --> 00:22:17.512
all this sort of stuff that's going
on because, like we mentioned last week,

00:22:17.595 --> 00:22:20.257
every 11 days we're seeing
new models get published

00:22:20.340 --> 00:22:23.708
now. It is unbelievable. And this week,
Google released their new model that also

00:22:23.791 --> 00:22:24.177
seems to be

00:22:24.260 --> 00:22:28.596
more performant than any other model And
every couple days we seeing a new one come

00:22:28.680 --> 00:22:32.909
out So the model control systems are not
going to solve any problems What I think

00:22:32.993 --> 00:22:37.382
is going to end up happening and this is a
prediction no one may like but I do think

00:22:37.465 --> 00:22:38.607
we going to end up in a

00:22:38.690 --> 00:22:42.076
world where governments are going
to regulate data center access and usage.

00:22:42.160 --> 00:22:43.187
They're going to say the

00:22:43.270 --> 00:22:46.557
data centers are here, but in order
to maintain defense capabilities,

00:22:46.640 --> 00:22:47.827
we are going to decide who

00:22:47.910 --> 00:22:50.834
gets allocated a certain number of GPUs,
certain amount of inference,

00:22:50.917 --> 00:22:51.967
a certain number of chips,

00:22:52.050 --> 00:22:54.700
a certain number of servers.
Because at the end of the day,

00:22:54.783 --> 00:22:56.507
one of the key metrics of cyber defense

00:22:56.590 --> 00:23:00.767
is going to be how many machines do you
have allocated to defend your systems

00:23:00.850 --> 00:23:04.554
against how many machines are coming
after your systems. And it is, again,

00:23:04.638 --> 00:23:05.527
a classic arms race

00:23:05.610 --> 00:23:10.862
scenario. Assuming model convergence, and
even if models have slight advantages over

00:23:10.945 --> 00:23:11.779
others,

00:23:12.170 --> 00:23:14.556
it seems to be the case
that we will maintain pacing.

00:23:14.639 --> 00:23:16.239
And if we're maintaining pacing,

00:23:16.670 --> 00:23:21.081
then the number of machines allocated to a
specific task is going to be a key measure

00:23:21.164 --> 00:23:21.204
of

00:23:21.270 --> 00:23:25.245
how well it performs in that task relative
to another set of machines doing the same

00:23:25.328 --> 00:23:27.995
task. You're just going to need
to allocate more machines to it.

00:23:28.078 --> 00:23:29.127
So if you're going to allocate

00:23:29.210 --> 00:23:31.814
more machines to it, you're going to end
up having the government say, wait,

00:23:31.897 --> 00:23:32.987
wait, wait, wait, wait.

00:23:33.070 --> 00:23:38.350
We need the US financial services system
to get X percent of the GPUs in America.

00:23:38.650 --> 00:23:40.648
We need to make sure that Y
percent go to defense.

00:23:40.731 --> 00:23:42.327
We need to make sure that Z percent.

00:23:42.410 --> 00:23:45.307
You're saying it's all going to get
nationalized and allocated top down.

00:23:45.390 --> 00:23:48.067
I think that's where the regulators are
going to end up having to play a role.

00:23:48.150 --> 00:23:51.199
You can kind of think about data
centers becoming the utility,

00:23:51.282 --> 00:23:53.050
which is the clouds, the neoclouds.

00:23:53.490 --> 00:23:55.947
Effectively, the government will
end up saying, wait a second,

00:23:56.030 --> 00:23:57.787
we're not allocating enough to JP Morgan.

00:23:57.870 --> 00:24:00.920
We're not allocating enough
to the financial services system.

00:24:01.190 --> 00:24:03.147
And ultimately, the number
of machines that are being allocated.

00:24:03.230 --> 00:24:04.467
[Speaker 2] I would have
my remark to take care of that.

00:24:04.550 --> 00:24:06.447
[Speaker 4] Yeah, it's an opportunity
to sell into the government.

00:24:06.530 --> 00:24:09.282
Now, Google and Amazon Web
Services, Crusoe, whoever,

00:24:09.366 --> 00:24:10.810
can just sell more servers.

00:24:10.990 --> 00:24:16.352
And the government then can say, hey,
it is now SAC's national security that we

00:24:16.436 --> 00:24:18.067
build more data centers.

00:24:18.150 --> 00:24:22.330
and we're going to clear the road
for it based on that alone.

00:24:22.790 --> 00:24:23.567
That is inevitable.

00:24:23.650 --> 00:24:25.227
[Speaker 2] Yeah, here's
the part that I agree with.

00:24:25.310 --> 00:24:26.847
[Speaker 5] Blocking
a data center if we needed,

00:24:26.930 --> 00:24:30.167
that would be like blocking tanks
being built during World War II, right?

00:24:30.250 --> 00:24:32.327
[Speaker 2] Yeah,
here's the part I agree with.

00:24:32.410 --> 00:24:34.247
It's not just about
the capability of the model.

00:24:34.330 --> 00:24:36.810
It's about how much
compute you have to run it.

00:24:37.050 --> 00:24:40.530
And we want to have more
compute than our adversaries.

00:24:40.850 --> 00:24:43.487
And if we continue with this
anti-data center crusade,

00:24:43.570 --> 00:24:45.587
we're going to be
at a severe disadvantage.

00:24:45.670 --> 00:24:51.136
We already know that the precursor for
data centers is power generation and China

00:24:51.220 --> 00:24:56.617
doubling their grid every decade and we
been flat for about 25 years That a huge

00:24:56.701 --> 00:25:01.824
problem Now I went back and looked
Throughout the course of the 20th century

00:25:01.908 --> 00:25:07.580
the United States was on a pace to double
its electrical grid every decade That what

00:25:07.663 --> 00:25:11.232
we did. We actually grew
power generation enormously.

00:25:11.316 --> 00:25:14.397
And those were in the
days when America was a

00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:19.624
great industrial empire and basically
dominated the world in manufacturing

00:25:19.707 --> 00:25:21.037
and industry. We did

00:25:21.120 --> 00:25:24.601
not have a problem doing this.
We found ways to do it. Obviously,

00:25:24.685 --> 00:25:28.604
the power generation plants, the power
plants were being built somewhere,

00:25:28.687 --> 00:25:31.417
and they found places
to put them where they didn't

00:25:31.500 --> 00:25:34.442
encounter too much NIMBY opposition.
They figured out a way to do it.

00:25:34.525 --> 00:25:35.757
Think about that. Every decade

00:25:35.840 --> 00:25:39.264
of the 20th century until starting
around the 1970s, when it slowed a bit,

00:25:39.347 --> 00:25:40.117
they were doubling

00:25:40.200 --> 00:25:44.059
the grid every decade. The 70s, it
started slowing, but the growth continued,

00:25:44.142 --> 00:25:48.567
and it wasn't until the early 2000s
that basically we flatlined. Why is that?

00:25:48.650 --> 00:25:51.457
Because of deindustrialization,
globalization,

00:25:51.540 --> 00:25:54.593
we shipped all those
manufacturing jobs overseas,

00:25:54.676 --> 00:25:57.537
and then people went
to work in offices, so we

00:25:57.620 --> 00:26:01.697
didn't need as much power. Efficiency
played a little bit of a part in it

00:26:01.780 --> 00:26:02.837
as well, but we kind

00:26:02.920 --> 00:26:07.543
of lost that muscle of how do we basically
keep doubling our power grid every decade?

00:26:07.626 --> 00:26:08.097
We have to

00:26:08.180 --> 00:26:13.864
get that back. And again, this anti-data
center witch hunt that I'm seeing going

00:26:13.947 --> 00:26:17.707
on, it's so misguided. Look, data
centers have been around for a long time.

00:26:17.791 --> 00:26:19.391
Data centers serve the internet.

00:26:19.600 --> 00:26:23.975
They serve all the mobile applications
on your phone. They serve now AI,

00:26:24.058 --> 00:26:25.337
but they serve all the

00:26:25.420 --> 00:26:31.680
uses of computers that we use. And to
blame them for any specific application,

00:26:32.480 --> 00:26:36.597
this seems totally misguided. If you have
concerns about things like surveillance or

00:26:36.680 --> 00:26:40.384
privacy, by all means,
strengthen the privacy laws, right?

00:26:40.467 --> 00:26:44.980
I'm all in favor of that, but just trying
to ban the data center seems insane.

00:26:45.300 --> 00:26:48.537
[Speaker 4] Saks, what everybody wants
to know, you have been pretty critical

00:26:48.620 --> 00:26:50.517
of the Anthropic Computer Corporation

00:26:50.600 --> 00:26:53.000
and specifically Dario
and the leadership there.

00:26:53.280 --> 00:26:54.280
He was at the event.

00:26:55.100 --> 00:26:57.700
You guys met, I think,
perhaps for the first time.

00:26:57.940 --> 00:27:00.457
Tell us about Dario's participation there.

00:27:00.540 --> 00:27:05.040
And did you guys talk a little bit
about your criticism of him specifically,

00:27:05.220 --> 00:27:08.937
of the organization specifically,
and all of this doomerism

00:27:09.020 --> 00:27:11.537
and effective altruism and all this?

00:27:11.620 --> 00:27:13.060
or did it not come up?

00:27:13.760 --> 00:27:16.577
[Speaker 2] No, I mean, look,
I think that Dario was a good sport.

00:27:16.660 --> 00:27:18.097
It's true. That's the first
time I met him in person.

00:27:18.180 --> 00:27:19.537
I talked to him on the phone before.

00:27:19.620 --> 00:27:22.170
But look, he was a good
sport throughout the event.

00:27:22.320 --> 00:27:25.985
It was not adversarial or hostile
Obviously he has his own views and he

00:27:26.068 --> 00:27:29.996
represented them But fundamentally
everybody got on the same page and signed

00:27:30.080 --> 00:27:34.430
this accord Did you shake hands with Dario
Yeah yeah yeah yeah Yeah he joked He said

00:27:34.514 --> 00:27:36.157
oh my nemesis You know, he sort of joked.

00:27:36.240 --> 00:27:38.400
Oh, really? Yeah. So it's kind of funny.

00:27:38.580 --> 00:27:38.697
Yeah.

00:27:38.780 --> 00:27:40.880
[Speaker 4] Did you invite him on the pod?

00:27:40.980 --> 00:27:43.037
[Speaker 2] I forgot to invite him
on the pod, but he's welcome anytime.

00:27:43.120 --> 00:27:44.357
[Speaker 5] Do you have his phone number?

00:27:44.440 --> 00:27:45.857
And are you going
to invite him on the pod?

00:27:45.940 --> 00:27:46.897
The world wants to know.

00:27:46.980 --> 00:27:48.480
[Speaker 2] If you want me to.

00:27:48.580 --> 00:27:51.691
But look, I think it's good that he talked
to the president and had dinner with

00:27:51.774 --> 00:27:52.317
the president.

00:27:52.400 --> 00:27:54.597
I think the president should talk
to all the major players in the space.

00:27:54.680 --> 00:27:57.180
He should hear the full spectrum of views.

00:27:57.720 --> 00:28:01.940
And I trust the president's going to
arrive at the right policy and solution.

00:28:02.240 --> 00:28:04.460
So I think it's good
for him to hear Dario.

00:28:04.600 --> 00:28:07.637
[Speaker 5] I mean, look, I think
insight into what happened at that dinner.

00:28:07.720 --> 00:28:10.077
[Speaker 4] What was President
Trump's view of Dario?

00:28:10.160 --> 00:28:11.697
He said he's an interesting guy.

00:28:11.780 --> 00:28:15.153
There were some interesting quotes and he
he dragged him from the back of the group

00:28:15.236 --> 00:28:16.897
in the presser and threw him out front.

00:28:16.980 --> 00:28:18.177
I saw you were right behind him.

00:28:18.260 --> 00:28:19.137
Zuck was right behind him.

00:28:19.220 --> 00:28:22.937
You guys had a little chuckle
at the president pushing him forward.

00:28:23.020 --> 00:28:26.998
[Speaker 2] to no we weren't we actually i
forgot exactly what no one was making fun

00:28:27.081 --> 00:28:27.917
of dario just no no

00:28:28.000 --> 00:28:31.177
[Speaker 4] i wasn't implying that yeah
there were side conversations going

00:28:31.260 --> 00:28:32.177
on grabbed him from the

00:28:32.260 --> 00:28:36.282
back and said you have to speak i think
that was kind of a acute moment it was

00:28:36.365 --> 00:28:37.177
an affectionate i

00:28:37.260 --> 00:28:41.139
saw it as an affectionate moment that he
wanted dario to be part of the group

00:28:41.222 --> 00:28:42.117
and speak on behalf

00:28:42.200 --> 00:28:45.254
[Speaker 2] of the group i saw it as
the opposite yeah yeah he gave him a pat

00:28:45.338 --> 00:28:46.477
on the back exactly and look i

00:28:46.560 --> 00:28:51.345
think listen dario is a very special
person i didn't you know fully appreciate

00:28:51.429 --> 00:28:52.157
it till we're

00:28:52.240 --> 00:28:56.982
all in that room together there's
obviously a wide spectrum of views in

00:28:57.065 --> 00:28:58.817
that room there's different

00:28:58.900 --> 00:29:04.106
levels of a good word yeah there's there's
an autism spectrum there's a there's

00:29:04.190 --> 00:29:04.977
a spectrum of

00:29:05.060 --> 00:29:08.308
[Speaker 6] autism spectrum in that room
you felt you felt very comfortable sacks

00:29:08.392 --> 00:29:09.337
well i mean you guys call

00:29:09.420 --> 00:29:14.330
[Speaker 2] me the rain man but um i mean
you're a rain man light yeah you're pretty

00:29:14.413 --> 00:29:15.697
functional i don't mean

00:29:15.780 --> 00:29:19.085
this as an insult but you know daria
is sort of the dustin hoffman in that room

00:29:19.168 --> 00:29:19.857
and then tom brown

00:29:19.940 --> 00:29:23.180
like the tom cruise character who's trying
to like translate they weren't wearing

00:29:23.264 --> 00:29:23.837
the same suit or

00:29:23.920 --> 00:29:28.513
[Speaker 4] anything but um hey america
china russia meet my mutants okay i'm

00:29:28.597 --> 00:29:30.457
forming like the x-men here okay

00:29:30.540 --> 00:29:34.398
these are brainiacs they're a little bit
weird on the margins but they're getting

00:29:34.481 --> 00:29:35.177
done for america

00:29:35.260 --> 00:29:41.722
you certainly uh must have had an uh
an interesting uh a time there tell us

00:29:41.805 --> 00:29:43.817
a little bit more of the

00:29:43.900 --> 00:29:49.021
palace entry what was president trump's
vibe he seemed he was incredibly engaged

00:29:49.104 --> 00:29:49.737
and excited

00:29:49.820 --> 00:29:54.426
And I just want to say, listen, you don't
have to be a fan of President Trump or

00:29:54.509 --> 00:29:59.291
a Republican to appreciate what happened
here and compare it to when Biden excluded

00:29:59.374 --> 00:30:01.160
Elon from. from the EV summit.

00:30:01.410 --> 00:30:03.988
You need to, as the president
of the United States,

00:30:04.071 --> 00:30:06.702
be bipartisan and include
everybody in these things.

00:30:06.785 --> 00:30:09.728
We're all part of the same team.
It's called Team America.

00:30:09.812 --> 00:30:12.494
And I thought this was a great
juxtaposition of that.

00:30:12.578 --> 00:30:13.777
You had a lot of people.

00:30:13.860 --> 00:30:17.060
who are extremely critical
of the administration who were there,

00:30:17.190 --> 00:30:20.689
[Speaker 3] to make America stronger,
to make America win the AI race,

00:30:20.773 --> 00:30:24.221
the superintelligence race.
Most people have said this at this point.

00:30:24.304 --> 00:30:28.469
So this is sort of beating a dead horse.
But he's a generational political athlete.

00:30:28.552 --> 00:30:31.028
I mean, I don't think
we've seen anybody like him.

00:30:31.111 --> 00:30:34.867
And so he's extremely comfortable
around all kinds of people with all kinds

00:30:34.950 --> 00:30:37.067
of differing views.
And he's conscientious.

00:30:37.151 --> 00:30:40.343
And so when he notices things
are not right, he sets them right.

00:30:40.426 --> 00:30:43.190
He talks to as many people.
And I think you have to be

00:30:43.590 --> 00:30:45.650
really impressed with that. This is a

00:30:46.260 --> 00:30:48.940
an incredible pattern that I hope

00:30:49.140 --> 00:30:53.918
outlives him, which is this idea that when
you have very complicated problems,

00:30:54.001 --> 00:30:56.090
when you Use industry.com.

00:30:56.610 --> 00:31:00.446
to be a sounding board, and then
you sit with industry in real time,

00:31:00.530 --> 00:31:03.098
and then you craft these
accords in real time.

00:31:03.181 --> 00:31:06.870
And when that industry represents
the entire political spectrum,

00:31:07.320 --> 00:31:10.172
As you said Jason, some who are with you
and some who are against you and some who

00:31:10.256 --> 00:31:11.156
are in the middle.

00:31:11.880 --> 00:31:14.297
That is the right way
to govern, in my opinion,

00:31:14.380 --> 00:31:18.605
because you have the best chance of doing
something that's sustainable and that's

00:31:18.688 --> 00:31:21.937
realistic. And that comes back to this...

00:31:22.020 --> 00:31:25.670
point that is getting lost, which
is whoever wins superintelligence wins.

00:31:26.310 --> 00:31:30.787
And I think if we just keep that in mind,
this is the pattern that hopefully

00:31:30.870 --> 00:31:31.703
outlives the

00:31:32.430 --> 00:31:35.599
the president, which is that whenever
you run into any other thorny issue,

00:31:35.682 --> 00:31:39.832
and I would say this to whoever's going to
be president in 28 and beyond, Democrat.

00:31:40.170 --> 00:31:42.010
Republican, it doesn't matter.

00:31:42.810 --> 00:31:45.810
Get the smartest people
from that industry in a room.

00:31:46.500 --> 00:31:50.114
Make sure that that's filled with both
people that support you as well as may not

00:31:50.198 --> 00:31:52.837
necessarily support you
and then hash it out in the room.

00:31:52.920 --> 00:31:54.100
and forced

00:31:54.810 --> 00:31:58.825
a set of realistic principles that
everybody can then build a business

00:31:58.908 --> 00:32:02.020
around. That is very smart
Politics and Governance.

00:32:02.940 --> 00:32:04.754
I just wanted to go back
to something you said before,

00:32:04.837 --> 00:32:07.327
because I was having this
conversation with Phil Deutsch.

00:32:07.410 --> 00:32:09.210
This is about the data center thing.

00:32:10.050 --> 00:32:12.397
He made this point to me,
which I think is really important.

00:32:12.480 --> 00:32:14.420
When you look at the impact...

00:32:14.730 --> 00:32:19.240
that, The... Iran war
had on the price of oil.

00:32:19.890 --> 00:32:23.210
The most interesting takeaway
was actually how little...

00:32:24.210 --> 00:32:26.710
The price of oil moved significantly.

00:32:27.870 --> 00:32:30.110
during all of these
blockages in our moods.

00:32:30.660 --> 00:32:34.932
Because what really happened was there was
a lot of supply and generation shifting

00:32:35.015 --> 00:32:38.331
that occurred, right?
We were able to shape in real time, Jason,

00:32:38.414 --> 00:32:42.208
how to generate energy. And the real
takeaway from my perspective is that

00:32:42.291 --> 00:32:45.341
the generation of electrons
is actually the critical thing,

00:32:45.424 --> 00:32:49.620
not necessarily the generation of energy
as we've classically thought about it.

00:32:50.130 --> 00:32:53.450
Now, why that's important
is the data center now becomes the...

00:32:54.030 --> 00:32:56.050
critical symbol of national security.

00:32:56.670 --> 00:32:58.970
Because the ability
to generate electrons...

00:32:59.340 --> 00:33:01.990
and then the ability to make
sure that we can compute

00:33:02.400 --> 00:33:05.825
the resources that we need to run
our economy is going to start from those

00:33:05.908 --> 00:33:09.550
things. And so domestic
energy production, I think...

00:33:09.750 --> 00:33:14.172
also is this hugely important thing that
is going to move from a domestic policy

00:33:14.255 --> 00:33:18.678
issue to a national security issue. And
that's why I think the data center thing

00:33:18.761 --> 00:33:21.070
and sort of why I disagree with Freebergs

00:33:21.300 --> 00:33:24.429
I understand where he's coming from
because this is why the data center will

00:33:24.512 --> 00:33:27.901
get so much scrutiny. But I also
think the opposite will happen,

00:33:27.984 --> 00:33:31.927
which is more of the Sachs idea of the
free market, because it is so critical.

00:33:32.010 --> 00:33:35.904
Similar to how we responded after
the Persian Gulf War and how we responded

00:33:35.987 --> 00:33:38.396
after the global war
on terror, what did we do?

00:33:38.480 --> 00:33:42.586
We doubled and tripled down on that gas
and domestic oil production. Similarly,

00:33:42.669 --> 00:33:46.404
I think the domestic production
of electrons becomes so critical because

00:33:46.488 --> 00:33:50.116
the data center becomes this natural
security infrastructure that's so

00:33:50.200 --> 00:33:50.737
important.

00:33:50.820 --> 00:33:52.720
[Speaker 1] Yeah, there was this great

00:33:54.150 --> 00:33:56.470
video from years ago,

00:33:56.880 --> 00:34:01.111
where Milton Friedman was at a law school
and he was asked a question by this kid

00:34:01.194 --> 00:34:04.786
about when do we have a responsibility
to act to save someone's life?

00:34:04.869 --> 00:34:07.236
And can the government
mandate that I do that?

00:34:07.319 --> 00:34:10.218
And doesn't that take away
my freedom in a free society?

00:34:10.302 --> 00:34:14.000
And the way the kid asked it,
Milton Friedman responded by saying, hey,

00:34:14.083 --> 00:34:17.249
you started out talking about
your responsibility in society.

00:34:17.332 --> 00:34:21.380
And by the end of it, you were telling
me about what government needs to do.

00:34:21.750 --> 00:34:25.150
And he's like, I would argue that
those two things are not the same.

00:34:25.290 --> 00:34:27.390
And that the point you should take note of

00:34:27.510 --> 00:34:32.453
is that you don't need government to solve
your problems when society is giving you

00:34:32.537 --> 00:34:35.966
a clear signal of what the right
and wrong thing is to do.

00:34:36.049 --> 00:34:38.290
That people collectively can and will

00:34:38.520 --> 00:34:42.200
solve their problems,
take their actions, choose the right path,

00:34:42.283 --> 00:34:46.340
do the right things, and businesses
can and will respond accordingly,

00:34:46.950 --> 00:34:48.814
When the market is telling them something,

00:34:48.897 --> 00:34:52.117
when society is telling them something,
they don't need anything.

00:34:52.200 --> 00:34:57.317
the government to be responsible
for executing the actions and taking

00:34:57.401 --> 00:35:00.340
regulation onto its shoulders for them.

00:35:00.600 --> 00:35:03.040
And I think we saw that this
week with NVIDIA's launch.

00:35:03.124 --> 00:35:06.757
And OpenAI was very declarative about how
they're being more precautionary before

00:35:06.840 --> 00:35:10.240
they release models. But this morning,
Google also launched SynthID.

00:35:10.470 --> 00:35:14.483
And SynthID is a system for watermarking
proteins that are produced with AI.

00:35:14.566 --> 00:35:18.687
So the sequence, the DNA sequence that
codes for the protein will actually now

00:35:18.770 --> 00:35:23.072
have a watermark in it. and it's being
broadly adopted. And the protein itself,

00:35:23.155 --> 00:35:26.676
the three-dimensional construct of the
protein will actually have an embedded

00:35:26.760 --> 00:35:30.469
watermark in it as well. This is actually
a pretty amazing technology that Google

00:35:30.552 --> 00:35:34.340
developed. for creating
watermarking and defense systems in

00:35:34.710 --> 00:35:40.250
AI bio. And I think we are starting
to see the market respond actively to,

00:35:40.890 --> 00:35:47.400
to what society is saying, and not need
to, these government people to come in,

00:35:47.640 --> 00:35:48.473
and take over.

00:35:49.020 --> 00:35:50.977
[Speaker 3] And in the process,
put everything at risk.

00:35:51.060 --> 00:35:53.811
[Speaker 1] By the way, I saw that clip.
It was going viral as well.

00:35:53.895 --> 00:35:56.854
I thought that it was the young guy.
I don't know why I watched it. Yeah,

00:35:56.938 --> 00:35:59.106
he was a law school kid.
The young guy was articulate.

00:35:59.189 --> 00:36:01.867
Milton Friedman was unbelievably
articulate as always.

00:36:01.950 --> 00:36:05.317
[Speaker 3] But Jake, what was your view?
I'm curious, what's your view...

00:36:05.400 --> 00:36:08.347
Just seeing it happen real time,
what were you thinking?

00:36:08.430 --> 00:36:10.600
[Speaker 4] Yeah, well, I was actually...

00:36:11.310 --> 00:36:14.688
Ironically invited to come down
to the White House for the first time,

00:36:14.771 --> 00:36:17.621
my friend Joe Jebbia,
who launched America.gov this week.

00:36:18.270 --> 00:36:21.610
which was a spectacular launch.
We were making the American...

00:36:21.870 --> 00:36:24.752
government as efficient
as private industry.

00:36:24.836 --> 00:36:28.459
He's the co-founder of Airbnb
and an incredible design.

00:36:28.543 --> 00:36:32.773
He went to RISD with his partners.
And so just shout out to him.

00:36:32.856 --> 00:36:36.817
If you haven't seen America.gov,
it's stunning and gorgeous.

00:36:36.901 --> 00:36:38.990
I spoke on a panel with Brooke.

00:36:39.270 --> 00:36:42.757
[Speaker 1] Rollins and Sean Sankar
at the event. It was an incredible event.

00:36:42.840 --> 00:36:45.399
The whole cabinet showed up.
The president signed the EO.

00:36:45.483 --> 00:36:49.248
And even guys like Andrew Ross Sorkin gave
this standing monologue on why it was so

00:36:49.331 --> 00:36:52.168
incredible for America to see this.
It was not partisan at all.

00:36:52.252 --> 00:36:55.553
It was just upgrade America's technology
infrastructure for the citizens.

00:36:55.636 --> 00:36:57.918
And it was fantastic.
And by the way, sorry, Jacob,

00:36:58.001 --> 00:37:01.897
I'm sorry to interrupt you, but I just
want to give a shout out to Joe because –

00:37:01.980 --> 00:37:06.117
He did that work with his own money.
People think that this was like some big

00:37:06.200 --> 00:37:09.160
government investment.
Joe was not aware of that. Wow.

00:37:09.420 --> 00:37:12.974
Joe and others put up personal funds
and gave up their personal time,

00:37:13.057 --> 00:37:15.452
despite their success
in their private careers,

00:37:15.535 --> 00:37:19.563
to step in and do this work for America.
And I just think it was an incredible

00:37:19.647 --> 00:37:23.253
rally and cry for all of these
technologists to get together and build

00:37:23.337 --> 00:37:27.049
something great together for America.
And it was a really beautiful day.

00:37:27.132 --> 00:37:28.367
It was great to be there.

00:37:28.450 --> 00:37:31.813
[Speaker 4] Sorry, go ahead. No,
no, it's fine. From the outside,

00:37:31.896 --> 00:37:35.789
it was incredible. It's just awesome
to see the power of all these American

00:37:35.872 --> 00:37:39.000
industry together. Not a critique,
but an end to add to it.

00:37:39.420 --> 00:37:42.170
I think the next piece
of this puzzle is to start to...

00:37:42.330 --> 00:37:46.104
include Americans in this,
the bottom half of the K-shaped recovery.

00:37:46.187 --> 00:37:50.472
Where's the teacher? Where's the teenager
going into college and all of this?

00:37:50.555 --> 00:37:53.989
Where's the American tool belt
worker, the plumber, et cetera?

00:37:54.072 --> 00:37:58.640
It looks from the outside, I think, to a
lot of Americans that this is still a bit

00:37:58.723 --> 00:38:02.070
scary. So there's more work
to do there. I was on a flight.

00:38:02.400 --> 00:38:04.548
Delta and the flight
attendants asked me what I did.

00:38:04.632 --> 00:38:07.638
And I was talking to them and they said,
I'm so scared of this AI stuff.

00:38:07.721 --> 00:38:10.728
I'm so glad I'm retiring because I
don't want to lose my job, et cetera.

00:38:10.811 --> 00:38:12.831
Americans are still
petrified of this technology.

00:38:12.914 --> 00:38:16.092
They still think they're losing their
jobs. They still think it's dangerous.

00:38:16.176 --> 00:38:19.777
So I thought this was like a great first
step, but there's more work to do to

00:38:19.860 --> 00:38:22.466
pull Americans back off
that ledge. And we need to,

00:38:22.549 --> 00:38:26.737
and I think this is where the president
or the next president could have a really

00:38:26.820 --> 00:38:29.140
major impact,
is to start forcing Americans.

00:38:29.280 --> 00:38:32.664
American companies, not just thinking
about how they make more money,

00:38:32.747 --> 00:38:35.377
how they get more green
lights for their data centers,

00:38:35.460 --> 00:38:37.940
how they get less regulation
and more free markets.

00:38:38.023 --> 00:38:41.859
But how does this impact education?
How does this lower the cost of education?

00:38:41.942 --> 00:38:43.500
How does this build more homes?

00:38:43.860 --> 00:38:47.941
How does this help health care? How did
people get more health care, you know,

00:38:48.024 --> 00:38:50.343
at a lower price?
None of that was addressed.

00:38:50.427 --> 00:38:53.386
That doesn't mean I'm giving
any criticism of this event,

00:38:53.470 --> 00:38:57.764
but that's the next piece. The next time
President Trump brings together this many

00:38:57.848 --> 00:39:00.968
powerful people, they should
talk about the American public,

00:39:01.051 --> 00:39:03.584
not just the data centers.
So a couple of things.

00:39:03.667 --> 00:39:07.908
He did ask for people to do just that and
actually showcase some of these things.

00:39:07.991 --> 00:39:10.020
And he was very specific. He did that.

00:39:13.860 --> 00:39:16.900
[Speaker 3] He was very direct.
That was super blunt.

00:39:16.983 --> 00:39:19.340
And one of the first few things he said.

00:39:19.530 --> 00:39:22.374
[Speaker 4] I wanted to build
on your other thing. By the way,

00:39:22.457 --> 00:39:26.103
that did not come across at all. The real
critique from the public that I think

00:39:26.187 --> 00:39:30.034
is valid here is it looks like, We're
just helping billionaires and companies.

00:39:30.118 --> 00:39:33.795
I want to talk to you about the junior.
That is something the billionaires and

00:39:33.878 --> 00:39:36.543
the companies, I don't mean
to sound like Bernie Sanders,

00:39:36.626 --> 00:39:40.351
they need to address this themselves.
It would be great if they started saying,

00:39:40.435 --> 00:39:43.485
like Facebook did with the free
tool belt stuff and the training,

00:39:43.568 --> 00:39:46.378
we need to see more of that.
And I think housing, education,

00:39:46.461 --> 00:39:49.270
healthcare is where Americans
will start to appreciate this.

00:39:49.354 --> 00:39:50.854
I told you that right after...

00:39:52.140 --> 00:39:55.490
[Speaker 3] the White House luncheon,
I flew to Orlando because the

00:39:55.680 --> 00:39:59.980
Earth Young has a two-day off-site for all
their partners. Okay, but listen to this.

00:40:00.790 --> 00:40:04.143
I'm not going to say this person's name,
but this person is a very well-known

00:40:04.226 --> 00:40:06.426
Democratic person.
They were on stage and...

00:40:06.730 --> 00:40:08.830
They have this whole riff about Doomerism.

00:40:09.340 --> 00:40:12.551
And they're so cavalier about it. They
actually included the people in the room

00:40:12.634 --> 00:40:15.707
as part of the claim that they're
all going to be out of jobs.

00:40:15.790 --> 00:40:19.760
And I'm standing there backstage
and I'm like, What are you talking about?

00:40:20.080 --> 00:40:23.370
Hmm. It's not rooted in details.
It's not rooted in data.

00:40:23.453 --> 00:40:26.329
It's not rooted in fact.
This is a very well-known person,

00:40:26.412 --> 00:40:29.320
very grounded theoretically
in what the data should show.

00:40:29.800 --> 00:40:30.633
Shaman name.

00:40:31.300 --> 00:40:35.598
But what you realize, well, I mean,
I'll say to you, but maybe we bloop it up.

00:40:35.681 --> 00:40:39.585
And I was like, what the what is going on?
And so to your point, Jason,

00:40:39.669 --> 00:40:42.843
it is very partisan.
And I said this last time on the pod.

00:40:42.926 --> 00:40:44.780
There is an incredibly important.

00:40:44.980 --> 00:40:49.605
Incentive. For folks that are not in the
power structure today, i.e. Democrats,

00:40:49.688 --> 00:40:50.638
I'm not going to be

00:40:51.820 --> 00:40:56.697
to take up the Doomerism call to action,
because it is a very straightforward way

00:40:56.780 --> 00:41:00.240
to whip up fear, and to then
catalyze that to power.

00:41:00.610 --> 00:41:04.499
in the midterms and then in 28.
So you're going to win you votes for sure.

00:41:04.583 --> 00:41:09.050
When I went on stage, the first thing
I did was I was like, She's wrong.

00:41:09.940 --> 00:41:13.487
And that's not true.
And in fact, everything tells us

00:41:13.570 --> 00:41:17.910
all the data up until now, that there
will be more jobs and more to do.

00:41:17.993 --> 00:41:23.081
And I said the people in this room will be
making more money in the next four years

00:41:23.164 --> 00:41:27.255
and five years than less money.
There will be more work to be done,

00:41:27.338 --> 00:41:29.830
more judgment, more taste to be imposed.

00:41:30.430 --> 00:41:31.263
And so,

00:41:31.510 --> 00:41:34.970
I have a real issue with this narrative
because I think it's just fundamentally

00:41:35.053 --> 00:41:37.705
wrong. And it does not come
from a place of data-driven fact.

00:41:37.789 --> 00:41:39.039
It comes from a decision.

00:41:39.310 --> 00:41:43.870
But the political calculus
is the dumerism is a way to foment

00:41:44.530 --> 00:41:47.090
distrust and displeasure

00:41:47.590 --> 00:41:51.333
and then to use that at the polls. And I
understand that as a political tactic,

00:41:51.416 --> 00:41:53.516
but I think it's important to call it out.

00:41:53.620 --> 00:41:56.293
[Speaker 1] This is why I say
we're in the AI wars. I mean,

00:41:56.376 --> 00:41:58.675
this is the actual war.
There won't be a robot war.

00:41:58.759 --> 00:42:02.226
It's this battle right now about who's
actually going to have the technology

00:42:02.309 --> 00:42:05.729
and the progress and who's not. Well,
who's going to benefit from Freeberg?

00:42:05.813 --> 00:42:08.813
Who's going to benefit from it,
right? Rich people or poor people,

00:42:08.896 --> 00:42:11.242
middle class? People don't
know what open source is.

00:42:11.325 --> 00:42:13.344
No one knows what
an open-weight model means.

00:42:13.427 --> 00:42:16.941
No one understands any of this stuff,
and they're looking at the rich guys at

00:42:17.024 --> 00:42:19.217
the White House.
And I agree with you, J. Calh.

00:42:19.300 --> 00:42:23.167
I think the public perception and the
public narrative on this thing is I don't

00:42:23.250 --> 00:42:23.627
get it.

00:42:23.710 --> 00:42:27.605
I see a bunch of wealthy people kind of
hanging out with the president at lunch,

00:42:27.688 --> 00:42:30.638
making a bunch of decisions
that I don't have a voice around.

00:42:30.721 --> 00:42:34.218
I don't even know what's going on.
I don't even know what they're doing.

00:42:34.301 --> 00:42:36.505
And then I turn on the news.
I turn on the TV.

00:42:36.588 --> 00:42:39.888
I look at my Instagram and everything's
about the end of tomorrow.

00:42:40.540 --> 00:42:42.866
And so I'm all about
shutting it down. No problem.

00:42:42.949 --> 00:42:44.849
This is why I think it's important to,

00:42:45.220 --> 00:42:49.748
to have the conversation that we're having
about why does open source and open weight

00:42:49.831 --> 00:42:53.779
AI benefit everyone because there's
no company that's charging you a toll

00:42:53.862 --> 00:42:57.860
for this digital technology. It's just
like the internet. We maintained...

00:42:58.330 --> 00:43:01.978
an open internet it was a huge fight
people forget the fight that we had

00:43:02.061 --> 00:43:02.894
for the internet

00:43:03.340 --> 00:43:06.828
When the Internet was first starting out,
there were all these efforts to privatize

00:43:06.911 --> 00:43:08.711
the Internet, to create gatekeepers.

00:43:08.920 --> 00:43:12.516
There were these efforts by all the telcos
that they were going to be the gatekeeper

00:43:12.599 --> 00:43:15.227
to the internet and charge
you different amounts of money.

00:43:15.310 --> 00:43:19.429
to access different websites. You weren't
going to be able to just go to Yahoo

00:43:19.512 --> 00:43:21.290
or AOL if you didn't pay a fee to

00:43:21.490 --> 00:43:25.750
to your telco to be allowed to access
Yahoo or AOL, and we made it illegal.

00:43:26.140 --> 00:43:30.220
And we made it an open internet. And I
think the same is happening right now

00:43:30.303 --> 00:43:33.562
with AI. People don't see the fight,
the war that's going on.

00:43:33.645 --> 00:43:36.739
But there is a contingent
of people that to Chema's point,

00:43:36.823 --> 00:43:40.245
recognize the political value
of regulatory control and capture.

00:43:40.329 --> 00:43:44.080
And they are fighting to create
gates and to create systems of control

00:43:44.163 --> 00:43:48.244
and ultimately new power structures.
This is where you solve the whole bomb.

00:43:48.327 --> 00:43:52.600
And we are fighting. The other side
is actually fighting for openness with AI.

00:43:56.140 --> 00:44:00.137
[Speaker 3] realize that these extremely
successful people are being deployed to

00:44:00.220 --> 00:44:04.963
with very tightly scripted talking
points that all point to doomerism,

00:44:05.046 --> 00:44:08.080
you realize that this
is extremely designed.

00:44:09.280 --> 00:44:13.907
And then the rest of us who are working in
this arena and actually can see that there

00:44:13.990 --> 00:44:18.506
are more positive benefits than negative
and that there are more people making more

00:44:18.589 --> 00:44:21.360
money than before up
and down the income spectrum.

00:44:21.490 --> 00:44:23.570
We are not as organized as they are.

00:44:23.800 --> 00:44:27.347
That's what I will say for sure.
And I think that the positive message

00:44:27.431 --> 00:44:29.920
of superintelligence
and the economic upside is,

00:44:30.100 --> 00:44:33.348
is not nearly as well trafficked
as the downside doomer message,

00:44:33.432 --> 00:44:37.461
because that goes from top to bottom
in an extremely organized, repetitive way.

00:44:37.544 --> 00:44:40.897
And that's why Jason, the flight
attendant, has the talking point.

00:44:40.980 --> 00:44:43.256
[Speaker 4] So they are
winning. And by the way,

00:44:43.339 --> 00:44:45.468
the talking point
was given to them by Dario.

00:44:45.551 --> 00:44:48.269
The talking point was given
to them by Elon when he said,

00:44:48.352 --> 00:44:52.054
you're not going to need to have a job.
Those talking points were handed out.

00:44:52.137 --> 00:44:55.445
Now they're being reversed.
Still work to be done. I think next time,

00:44:55.528 --> 00:44:57.778
best piece of advice,
save three seats, Saks.

00:44:58.240 --> 00:45:01.774
bring a Salcon, bring somebody
representing like teachers,

00:45:01.857 --> 00:45:05.889
bring somebody representing healthcare,
bring somebody thoughtful,

00:45:05.973 --> 00:45:09.606
non-business person, who could
represent other constituents in this.

00:45:09.689 --> 00:45:12.084
Save a seat at the table
for people who, you know,

00:45:12.167 --> 00:45:15.553
the every man and woman of America
can relate to, who says, hey, yeah,

00:45:15.637 --> 00:45:19.320
maybe this will help my kid, you know,
when I get a personal tutor for them.

00:45:19.403 --> 00:45:22.591
Like, Sal Khan would be the perfect
example at Khan Academy. Zach,

00:45:22.674 --> 00:45:24.177
you got any final thoughts here?

00:45:24.260 --> 00:45:27.779
[Speaker 2] Well, I mean, I kind of wanted
to broaden out this conversation to

00:45:27.863 --> 00:45:31.567
the economy as a whole, because I do think
that the dumerism is affecting people's

00:45:31.650 --> 00:45:34.800
perception of the economy.
Yeah, that's why I'm bringing it up.

00:45:37.360 --> 00:45:40.831
in a tremendous amount of economic data
in just last week or two showing that

00:45:40.914 --> 00:45:43.997
the economy is much stronger than
people are giving it credit for.

00:45:44.080 --> 00:45:47.752
I mean, yes, I know that diesel
prices are too high and rates are high,

00:45:47.836 --> 00:45:51.032
but those are the only two
variables that you ever hear about.

00:45:51.115 --> 00:45:55.211
Let's look at some of the other numbers
that have just come out because I think

00:45:55.294 --> 00:45:57.040
it's pretty extraordinary. Right.

00:45:57.220 --> 00:46:02.720
So first of all, Q2 GDP
was revised up to 2.2%.

00:46:03.460 --> 00:46:07.754
Up from 1.5 percent. So that's
basically a 50 percent increase.

00:46:07.838 --> 00:46:12.897
Economists had expected no revision.
Q1 was also revised up to 2.5 percent

00:46:12.980 --> 00:46:16.440
from 2.1 percent.
And if you look at the Q3 growth,

00:46:16.524 --> 00:46:22.277
it's tracking well above that. The Atlanta
Fed GDP now is showing around 3.7 percent

00:46:22.361 --> 00:46:23.820
as of late last week.

00:46:24.430 --> 00:46:29.830
August payrolls just came out, plus
162,000. The consensus was only 55,000,

00:46:29.913 --> 00:46:31.010
so it's a beat.

00:46:31.180 --> 00:46:36.698
of about 107,000 jobs. June and July
were also revised up by a combined 55,000.

00:46:36.782 --> 00:46:40.244
So unemployment is still
near record lows at 4.1%,

00:46:40.327 --> 00:46:44.300
even though labor
participation rose Point two.

00:46:44.620 --> 00:46:47.993
percent to 61.6 percent.
So good news on the jobs front,

00:46:48.077 --> 00:46:51.389
good news on the GDP front.
The economy is running hot.

00:46:51.472 --> 00:46:54.620
And then there is also
some good news on inflation.

00:46:54.970 --> 00:46:59.150
We saw that core PCE just came in at 3.0%.

00:46:59.260 --> 00:47:05.000
versus 3.3% expected. So inflation is
still a bit too high, but actually it is

00:47:05.470 --> 00:47:10.014
cooling and beating expectations. And then
finally, you look at manufacturing,

00:47:10.098 --> 00:47:12.527
we're seeing a huge wave of re-reporting.

00:47:12.610 --> 00:47:17.404
industrialization in this country. A
couple of the measures are the Chicago PMI

00:47:17.488 --> 00:47:22.529
and then ISM manufacturing. They both are
well into expansion territory and beating

00:47:22.612 --> 00:47:27.490
forecasts. Just one last point. Let's
talk about poverty for a second, because-

00:47:28.120 --> 00:47:32.020
I want to address the idea that
this is just a K-shaped recovery.

00:47:32.920 --> 00:47:38.877
So if you look at U.S. household
income, it's now at record high.

00:47:38.960 --> 00:47:43.895
The median household income
in 2025 is almost $90,000.

00:47:43.978 --> 00:47:50.678
And after-tax household income
is growing again in the second Trump term.

00:47:50.761 --> 00:47:56.532
It's averaged 3.1% a year in Trump 47.
It was 3.9% in Trump 45,

00:47:56.616 --> 00:48:00.370
and it was minus 3.9%. 1.2% in...

00:48:00.790 --> 00:48:05.593
Biden's term as a four-year average.
So we're seeing that after-tax household

00:48:05.677 --> 00:48:11.980
incomes have risen by 3.1%. just in 2025,
and the poverty rate in the U.S.,

00:48:12.550 --> 00:48:18.295
has fallen to its lowest level in history,
10.2%. So, you know, the poverty rate,

00:48:18.378 --> 00:48:22.252
the child poverty rate,
these are all at historic lows.

00:48:22.336 --> 00:48:27.377
The average household's real income
is After inflation, after taxes,

00:48:27.460 --> 00:48:29.956
is increasing for the first time in years.

00:48:30.039 --> 00:48:34.460
So there is a lot of strong economic
data out there, and I think that...

00:48:34.630 --> 00:48:38.562
This is why, if I was to guess, I actually
think that the Republicans are going to do

00:48:38.645 --> 00:48:41.538
better in the midterms than some
of these polls are predicting,

00:48:41.621 --> 00:48:44.750
because I think the press around
the economy has been very negative.

00:48:44.834 --> 00:48:48.199
But I think people are starting to feel
that the economy is accelerating.

00:48:48.282 --> 00:48:51.789
And that was actually a headline in
the Wall Street Journal just last couple

00:48:51.872 --> 00:48:54.718
of days that the economy
is accelerating right now. So, again,

00:48:54.801 --> 00:48:57.351
you've got this AI boom
or SI boom. You've got the.

00:48:57.550 --> 00:49:01.705
The infrastructure build out that, again,
the Wall Street Journal said is bigger

00:49:01.788 --> 00:49:03.430
than the railroads, the canals.

00:49:03.550 --> 00:49:07.859
and the electric grid combined. And all
these things are basically fueling strong

00:49:07.942 --> 00:49:12.034
growth in the economy. And again, I
would just dispute the K-shaped narrative

00:49:12.118 --> 00:49:16.510
because the poor are benefiting and the
average household are benefiting as well.

00:49:17.050 --> 00:49:19.787
They don't feel that way, but I guess...

00:49:19.870 --> 00:49:23.147
[Speaker 4] I get the sentiment.
I agree with you. The sentiment...

00:49:23.230 --> 00:49:27.057
[Speaker 2] has not caught up with the
economic reality, but I think it will.

00:49:27.140 --> 00:49:30.430
[Speaker 1] We've got
a rate problem in the last...

00:49:30.760 --> 00:49:35.978
30 days or so, right, we've seen short
term rates on treasuries climb by 60 basis

00:49:36.062 --> 00:49:38.858
points. That's a pretty
consequential climb.

00:49:38.942 --> 00:49:43.964
I think we haven't seen a short term
yield this high since going back to 2002.

00:49:44.047 --> 00:49:49.397
And so this massive increase in rates is
obviously going to impact people's ability

00:49:49.480 --> 00:49:52.307
to refinance their home,
buy a new car, and,

00:49:52.390 --> 00:49:56.276
purchase things on credit. And that's
the majority of Americans fall under

00:49:56.359 --> 00:49:57.192
that umbrella.

00:49:57.340 --> 00:49:59.937
And I think there's also kind
of an economic challenge ahead with the

00:50:00.020 --> 00:50:02.212
rate problem.
And I would argue, as I always do,

00:50:02.296 --> 00:50:05.768
that the rate problem is fundamentally
rooted in the federal government and

00:50:05.852 --> 00:50:06.852
the insane spending.

00:50:07.910 --> 00:50:12.072
And if you look at the impact that
this rate is going to have on banks,

00:50:12.156 --> 00:50:13.770
I worked with ChatGPT in my

00:50:14.210 --> 00:50:17.210
my trusted analyst, my financial
analyst in my office here,

00:50:17.900 --> 00:50:20.872
to help kind of figure out what's the
impact of these rates actually going to be

00:50:20.956 --> 00:50:22.767
on banks and what the impairment would be.

00:50:22.850 --> 00:50:25.470
There's 4,295 banks.

00:50:26.210 --> 00:50:29.870
that have positive equity that report
FDIC their balance sheets every month.

00:50:29.953 --> 00:50:32.853
Based on the actual reported
balance sheet of these banks,

00:50:33.950 --> 00:50:37.417
About 95 banks are going to see
an impairment of more than 20% of

00:50:37.500 --> 00:50:38.333
their equity.

00:50:38.810 --> 00:50:43.990
in the last 30 days or so. And those
reports start to come out on October 30th.

00:50:44.240 --> 00:50:46.613
So the thing I worry a lot
about is on October 30th,

00:50:46.697 --> 00:50:50.109
we're going to kind of see all these
financial reports coming out from all

00:50:50.193 --> 00:50:53.795
the banks, all the lending institutions.
And there's about 95 of them that are

00:50:53.878 --> 00:50:57.338
going to say, hey, we've got more than
20% impairment charge on our equity.

00:50:57.421 --> 00:50:59.369
That's going to be
a massive kind of shock.

00:50:59.453 --> 00:51:01.401
And then what are
the implications of that?

00:51:01.484 --> 00:51:05.275
And that's where we're going to start to
wake up to the fact that the rate problem

00:51:05.358 --> 00:51:07.950
is. isn't just a purchasing
problem for consumers.

00:51:08.330 --> 00:51:11.547
but it may actually have a bit of a
rippling effect here in the economy.

00:51:11.630 --> 00:51:15.288
starting with the financial institutions.
So they publish their next monthly reports

00:51:15.372 --> 00:51:18.451
on the September 30th ending period
on October 30th. And unfortunately,

00:51:18.535 --> 00:51:20.685
it coincides right
with the election cycle.

00:51:20.930 --> 00:51:23.188
So there's going to be
all this noise about, hey,

00:51:23.272 --> 00:51:26.725
how bad are things looking while we're
trying to go through this election?

00:51:26.808 --> 00:51:28.317
So, Saks, I don't know, like...

00:51:28.400 --> 00:51:30.444
If there's any view on how
we fix this rate problem,

00:51:30.528 --> 00:51:33.378
but it's pretty nasty and it's
going to have some impact.

00:51:44.270 --> 00:51:48.017
[Speaker 2] Look, if you compare rates
to the nominal growth rate of the economy,

00:51:48.100 --> 00:51:50.523
and those two things are
highly correlated over time,

00:51:50.607 --> 00:51:53.172
you can see the economy
is running really hot right now.

00:51:53.255 --> 00:51:55.005
And that is part of the reason why.

00:51:55.310 --> 00:51:59.250
rates are going up is because
you have to compensate people, for

00:51:59.420 --> 00:52:02.685
a real return. And you've
got inflation in the threes,

00:52:02.768 --> 00:52:07.645
and then you've got GDP growth at 3.7%,
then rates are going to be high as well.

00:52:07.728 --> 00:52:11.720
Look, I think this all comes
back to price of diesel because...

00:52:11.960 --> 00:52:15.717
That obviously has a lot to do with
not just people's price at the pump,

00:52:15.800 --> 00:52:17.880
but also diesel's and industrial input.

00:52:18.350 --> 00:52:22.085
and the transportation costs
get baked into all these goods.

00:52:22.168 --> 00:52:25.317
I think if we can just
solve that problem, then...

00:52:25.400 --> 00:52:27.822
Gas prices come down.
Inflation comes down.

00:52:27.905 --> 00:52:32.133
We can get rate cuts on that basis.
So I think that's the last piece here.

00:52:32.216 --> 00:52:35.420
I think the economy is already
doing, again, very well.

00:52:35.870 --> 00:52:38.931
2.5% in Q2, 3.7% in Q3.
But if we just get that last piece,

00:52:39.014 --> 00:52:42.129
I'm not saying there's not
a little bit of work to do there,

00:52:42.212 --> 00:52:44.770
I think the economy will
take off like a rocket.

00:52:45.350 --> 00:52:47.947
[Speaker 1] Yeah. I think
the conditions are right. You're right.

00:52:48.031 --> 00:52:50.534
I think the federal spending
problem is still persisting, though.

00:52:50.618 --> 00:52:52.286
It's almost like pouring
acid on everything.

00:52:52.369 --> 00:52:54.477
Like you've got all
this great stuff growing.

00:52:54.560 --> 00:52:57.650
And then you just have all this federal
spending, which as you and I both know,

00:52:57.733 --> 00:52:59.683
is like negative productivity spending.

00:53:00.230 --> 00:53:04.119
And it's creating fake employment and it's
doing all sorts of bad things. But man,

00:53:04.202 --> 00:53:07.461
if we don't get spending, you know,
as Scott Besson has talked about,

00:53:07.545 --> 00:53:11.094
to 3% deficit as a percentage GDP,
these rates are only going to get worse.

00:53:11.178 --> 00:53:14.437
And that could basically just shoot
us in the foot. It's almost like,

00:53:14.520 --> 00:53:18.368
[Speaker 2] you know, we all agree about
spending as a long term problem and it's

00:53:18.452 --> 00:53:21.717
a bipartisan problem. We have to fix it.
I would just say that, look,

00:53:21.801 --> 00:53:25.251
I would say about six months ago,
people said that if we get a spike.

00:53:25.610 --> 00:53:29.270
In gas prices, we're going
to have 1970s style stagflation.

00:53:29.420 --> 00:53:33.328
That has not happened. Instead,
we're seeing a super hot economy,

00:53:33.412 --> 00:53:36.583
and yet gas prices are
a little high. But by the way,

00:53:36.667 --> 00:53:40.720
during the Obama presidency,
we had over 300 days of of

00:53:41.000 --> 00:53:47.003
Brent crude over $100 a barrel. So people
forget that we've had the economy do well

00:53:47.087 --> 00:53:51.560
over large stretches of time
with gas prices at these levels.

00:53:51.950 --> 00:53:54.531
It's just the diesel price are
a little bit high and that has to do

00:53:54.614 --> 00:53:56.577
with refineries. Frankly, it'd be...

00:53:56.660 --> 00:54:00.040
good if Zelensky stopped
hitting Russian...

00:54:00.200 --> 00:54:04.705
refineries That hasn't helped the problem.
But look, so we just have that one issue,

00:54:04.789 --> 00:54:07.466
and I think we can resolve it.
There was a report this week,

00:54:07.549 --> 00:54:10.527
I think it was in The Guardian,
that it was in the Guardian,

00:54:10.610 --> 00:54:11.860
which is not a pro-Trump.

00:54:12.230 --> 00:54:16.348
publication saying that more oil got
out of Hormuz this week than since

00:54:16.431 --> 00:54:20.785
the beginning of the war. So I think
we need to kind of wrap up that issue.

00:54:20.869 --> 00:54:25.223
Gas prices come down. And then I think
that means inflation will come down.

00:54:25.307 --> 00:54:27.910
It's already coming
down more than expected.

00:54:28.430 --> 00:54:31.051
but then we can get a rate cut.
I think actually right now,

00:54:31.135 --> 00:54:35.035
no one's pricing in the potential for rate
cuts here. It's all rate increases.

00:54:35.450 --> 00:54:39.454
If we could get some relief there,
get rate cuts, I mean, again,

00:54:39.537 --> 00:54:43.050
the economy is going to rocket
even more. We have two –

00:54:43.790 --> 00:54:46.140
[Speaker 3] tricky
auctions that are coming up.

00:54:46.970 --> 00:54:50.370
And I think Treasury will
be able to navigate those

00:54:50.690 --> 00:54:54.030
Well, just because I think Scott
has such a good handle on...

00:54:54.260 --> 00:54:56.900
how to do this and frankly
how to do the job

00:54:57.950 --> 00:55:01.621
But once we get past those two auctions,
I'm leaning more in the SACS camp.

00:55:01.704 --> 00:55:05.676
I kind of tend to agree with you. There's
going to be some growing evidence about

00:55:05.759 --> 00:55:08.459
what to do. based on what
happens from Europe as well.

00:55:08.870 --> 00:55:11.237
I don't know if you guys
have been tracking this,

00:55:11.320 --> 00:55:13.870
but France is going through
a really complicated...

00:55:14.150 --> 00:55:19.236
budget negotiation right now. And they're
about to shrink the budget by probably

00:55:19.319 --> 00:55:20.870
$50-75 billion, which is

00:55:21.020 --> 00:55:25.182
You can imagine in France, that's like
ground zero for it's a one-way ratchet

00:55:25.266 --> 00:55:26.920
to GDP going through the roof.

00:55:27.230 --> 00:55:29.235
And so when the French start to make cuts,

00:55:29.319 --> 00:55:33.214
and it's what Freiburg has been saying,
it's why were they forced to capitulate?

00:55:33.297 --> 00:55:36.447
Because of long rates.
So that's happened. Andy Burnham, who...

00:55:36.920 --> 00:55:39.937
you know, bumbled his way into
the prime ministership of the UK,

00:55:40.021 --> 00:55:42.621
presented his policy platform
yesterday for an hour,

00:55:43.730 --> 00:55:46.900
It's truly insane. what he's saying.

00:55:48.260 --> 00:55:50.067
This is an extremely...

00:55:50.150 --> 00:55:55.330
muscular form of socialism that he
intends to impose on the United Kingdom.

00:55:56.630 --> 00:55:59.410
and then to re-merge back into your...

00:56:00.050 --> 00:56:02.590
And so he's going to try to undo Brexit.

00:56:02.720 --> 00:56:05.820
He's going to try to double
and triple the size of government.

00:56:06.950 --> 00:56:10.330
Not a mention of growth. Like,
how do you grow the private economy?

00:56:11.750 --> 00:56:16.437
Insane. So what you're going to see from
both of those two places over the next...

00:56:16.520 --> 00:56:19.340
here and is I think going to

00:56:20.480 --> 00:56:23.011
tell us what we're going to have
to do in the United States.

00:56:23.094 --> 00:56:24.294
But I tend to think that

00:56:25.010 --> 00:56:27.927
we're going to see a little bit
more growth than that is expected.

00:56:28.011 --> 00:56:31.155
I tend to think we're going to probably
see a little bit more revision.

00:56:31.239 --> 00:56:34.383
And I think that people are sleeping
on the fact that we are not nearly

00:56:34.467 --> 00:56:36.520
as dependent on oil
the way that we used to be.

00:56:36.604 --> 00:56:40.067
And so even though we used to breathlessly
look at Brent crude and WTI and all

00:56:40.150 --> 00:56:43.726
this stuff, I don't think it
matters nearly as much as it used to.

00:56:43.809 --> 00:56:47.595
And I think that's crazy because like
the paradigm of rates and the paradigm

00:56:47.678 --> 00:56:51.362
of currencies and the petrodollar,
all these intermingled things that used

00:56:51.445 --> 00:56:52.707
to drive the global economy

00:56:52.790 --> 00:56:57.012
are now getting rewired in ways that I
don't think anybody fully understands.

00:56:57.096 --> 00:56:59.417
And that's very good
for the United States.

00:56:59.500 --> 00:57:02.228
[Speaker 1] So I think we
have to factor that in as well.

00:57:02.311 --> 00:57:06.272
The one problem is we do have gas prices
at the pump are up 50% since the Iran war

00:57:06.355 --> 00:57:09.403
started. And that hurts
the everyday consumer significantly.

00:57:09.486 --> 00:57:12.972
It may not drive the GDP numbers
down super aggressively because of

00:57:13.055 --> 00:57:16.647
the industrial, but the actual cost
of living for the average person.

00:57:16.730 --> 00:57:20.641
[Speaker 3] But can I say something?
Yeah. I've looked at those numbers.

00:57:20.724 --> 00:57:23.110
The prices, they're terrible.
And I feel...

00:57:23.600 --> 00:57:25.940
bad for people that have
to bear that cost.

00:57:26.390 --> 00:57:29.040
But I think it's also
important to say that is not...

00:57:29.420 --> 00:57:31.900
An input issue, that is a refining issue.

00:57:32.330 --> 00:57:36.761
For decades and decades, we turned off the
refining infrastructure that the United

00:57:36.844 --> 00:57:38.110
States could have used.

00:57:38.420 --> 00:57:42.236
And so we now need, as Sack said,
the Russians, the Chinese,

00:57:42.319 --> 00:57:46.980
we need as much refining capacity
as possible to take all of this oil and

00:57:47.063 --> 00:57:49.774
to get it into usable
forms. So I hear you,

00:57:49.858 --> 00:57:54.388
but I think it's also important
to acknowledge where the constraint is.

00:57:54.472 --> 00:57:59.132
The constraint is not the oil.
The constraint is over decades and decades

00:57:59.216 --> 00:58:01.620
of all this electricity. I hate to...

00:58:02.600 --> 00:58:06.020
[Speaker 4] put a little rain
on this Hopian parade here.

00:58:06.320 --> 00:58:09.760
But two important charts
as we go into the midterms.

00:58:09.890 --> 00:58:14.106
Here is Trump's. Well, in my court
belief is not enough has changed.

00:58:14.190 --> 00:58:18.110
And so the American people,
you pull up the first chart, Nick.

00:58:19.130 --> 00:58:21.970
If we look at just since
Trump's been in office,

00:58:22.670 --> 00:58:25.687
I think the challenge is nothing's
changed. If you look at unemployment,

00:58:25.771 --> 00:58:27.721
it hasn't changed. It's about the same.

00:58:28.070 --> 00:58:32.211
And then if you look at inflation,
it's still sustained at that high threes,

00:58:32.294 --> 00:58:36.630
sometimes dipping into four, sometimes
as low as 3.2, but never into the twos.

00:58:37.280 --> 00:58:41.146
And GDP is something that the
American people just don't feel.

00:58:41.229 --> 00:58:43.107
And if you look at this chart,

00:58:43.190 --> 00:58:46.757
These are Trump's biggest strengths.
So you have to ask yourself,

00:58:46.841 --> 00:58:51.082
how did this administration go from an
incredibly positive feeling when Trump

00:58:51.165 --> 00:58:55.701
2.0, came out to having just a net
negative on immigration, trade,

00:58:55.784 --> 00:59:00.757
the economy and inflation. And people's
perception is their own reality.

00:59:00.840 --> 00:59:06.235
And the perception right now is that Trump
and this administration cares about

00:59:06.318 --> 00:59:09.900
foreign wars and it cares
about industry much more.

00:59:10.070 --> 00:59:15.238
then it cares about the average American.
And that is the exact opposite of what

00:59:15.322 --> 00:59:18.258
Trump promised his own
constituents. And this,

00:59:18.342 --> 00:59:23.379
what you see here in these results is,
he's lost all those independents he won

00:59:23.462 --> 00:59:28.171
with the promise of Trump 2.0.
And he's obviously never going to win over

00:59:28.254 --> 00:59:32.390
Democrats, and he's starting
to lose his base. And the base is,

00:59:32.750 --> 00:59:36.838
You know, now fleeing and saying, hey, you
promised us you were going to deport 20

00:59:36.921 --> 00:59:39.210
million people,
something I don't agree with.

00:59:39.950 --> 00:59:43.446
But that didn't happen. So now he's
losing all those core positions,

00:59:43.529 --> 00:59:45.867
the things that were
supposed to be a shrinks.

00:59:45.950 --> 00:59:49.814
And that's where you have to wonder
what is going on in this administration

00:59:49.897 --> 00:59:53.867
that they just can't even talk about
the issues that the American people care

00:59:53.950 --> 00:59:57.919
about. And obviously, the war just
destroyed this administration's popularity

00:59:58.003 --> 00:59:59.917
with their own base, their democracy.

01:00:00.000 --> 01:00:02.360
going to get shellacked. in the

01:00:03.180 --> 01:00:05.916
midterms according to all polls.
And of course, Trump,

01:00:05.999 --> 01:00:08.213
if anybody's gonna pull
a rabbit in the hat,

01:00:08.296 --> 01:00:11.220
it will be Trump because he
has beaten the polls before.

01:00:11.400 --> 01:00:15.881
But this is not looking good, gentlemen.
And you could spin sacks the last couple

01:00:15.964 --> 01:00:16.557
of quarters.

01:00:16.640 --> 01:00:20.387
[Speaker 2] Can I respond to this?
Absolutely. By the way,

01:00:20.470 --> 01:00:22.657
I wish it was different. I wish the...

01:00:22.740 --> 01:00:24.097
[Speaker 4] had 2% inflation right now.

01:00:24.180 --> 01:00:26.101
[Speaker 1] Jason,
what is your prediction?

01:00:26.184 --> 01:00:29.550
What do you think is going to happen?
I just look at Polymarket, honestly,

01:00:29.633 --> 01:00:32.160
and pull up the Polymarket here.
I think it's about 70%,

01:00:32.243 --> 01:00:35.236
80% that the Democrats sweep both.
By the way, over the next week,

01:00:35.319 --> 01:00:38.965
the four of us are going to have a squad
on Polymarket where we're going to make

01:00:39.048 --> 01:00:40.198
all of our predictions.

01:00:40.590 --> 01:00:43.306
And then the audience can kind
of follow along and see how we all do on

01:00:43.389 --> 01:00:43.937
our predictions,

01:00:44.020 --> 01:00:47.522
[Speaker 4] which will be kind
of interesting. But I don't, Jamath,

01:00:47.605 --> 01:00:49.207
I am not an expert on polling.

01:00:49.290 --> 01:00:53.198
But I do think starting with the people
actually betting money and 63% chance

01:00:53.281 --> 01:00:57.138
the Democrats take the Senate, 93%.
They take the House and if you put those

01:00:57.221 --> 01:00:59.450
together, there's
a chance they sweep both.

01:01:00.150 --> 01:01:02.630
Who knows with these polls? I do think

01:01:03.570 --> 01:01:06.803
I would look at Polymarket first.
And if you could zoom in there,

01:01:06.887 --> 01:01:09.030
the chances they take both is at what now?

01:01:09.540 --> 01:01:11.527
[Speaker 2] Sweep 64%
that they sweep. Okay,

01:01:11.610 --> 01:01:15.743
[Speaker 4] let me tell you what I
think is wrong with this analysis. Okay,

01:01:15.827 --> 01:01:19.200
go ahead. Okay, look. So, look,
I made this mistake in 2022.

01:01:19.950 --> 01:01:23.070
[Speaker 2] Like I was sure
there was going to be a red wave.

01:01:23.220 --> 01:01:26.620
In 2022, this is when Biden
was president and this was his midterms.

01:01:27.570 --> 01:01:29.942
Now, and it ended up being
like a red trickle. I mean,

01:01:30.026 --> 01:01:32.076
it was very disappointing to Republicans.

01:01:32.610 --> 01:01:35.330
They made gains,
but it was not a shellacking.

01:01:35.413 --> 01:01:40.266
So what was the mistake that I made? It
was that I was only looking at perception

01:01:40.350 --> 01:01:45.020
and I wasn't looking enough at reality
and I wasn't balancing the reality. So,

01:01:45.103 --> 01:01:49.430
for example, Biden's polling was in
the 30s. He was very low back then.

01:01:49.560 --> 01:01:53.749
And inflation was 9%. But if you
looked at GDP growth and unemployment,

01:01:53.833 --> 01:01:56.360
those numbers were actually pretty strong.

01:01:56.790 --> 01:02:00.602
So, you know, there was a lot of talking
down the economy based on one variable,

01:02:00.686 --> 01:02:03.586
which was inflation.
It was too high and it was a problem.

01:02:04.110 --> 01:02:07.308
But there were other variables
that were actually quite good.

01:02:07.391 --> 01:02:09.650
So the reality that people were feeling...

01:02:10.020 --> 01:02:13.406
Wasn't as bad as, you know, this like
super hyperbolic view that, again,

01:02:13.490 --> 01:02:17.021
all the pollsters have an incentive
to kind of exaggerate the stuff and all

01:02:17.104 --> 01:02:20.587
the political operatives always freak out.
It's good for ratings. But yes,

01:02:20.670 --> 01:02:23.864
it's good for ratings. But the reality
is the American people, look,

01:02:23.947 --> 01:02:27.671
they went red. Don't get me wrong. But it
wasn't the massive wave that everyone

01:02:27.754 --> 01:02:29.254
was expecting was more like a.

01:02:29.460 --> 01:02:33.576
red trickle. I think here, I don't
think we're going to get a blue wave.

01:02:33.659 --> 01:02:35.700
I think we might get a blue spritz.

01:02:35.970 --> 01:02:42.970
I mean, listen, I think that, listen,
Biden wishes that back in 2022, Biden,

01:02:45.150 --> 01:02:50.353
I'm saying that back in 2022, Biden would
have wished for the economy that Trump has

01:02:50.436 --> 01:02:53.248
now. OK, yes, we have
three percent inflation.

01:02:53.331 --> 01:02:58.031
It's not nine percent like Biden had.
Yes, gas prices are a little bit high,

01:02:58.114 --> 01:03:02.122
but GDP growth is great.
It's accelerating. Unemployment's great.

01:03:02.205 --> 01:03:06.212
Labor participation is great.
Poverty, the poverty line is great.

01:03:06.296 --> 01:03:10.890
I think the Republicans are going
to surprise people and keep the Senate.

01:03:11.460 --> 01:03:14.743
And I think, you know, most people
think Republicans lose the House.

01:03:14.827 --> 01:03:18.655
I guess that's probably consensus, but
it's not going to be this gigantic wave.

01:03:18.738 --> 01:03:24.040
I think it'll be. narrow if the Democrats
win. And I think it'll be a real headache.

01:03:24.480 --> 01:03:27.696
for Hakeem Jeffries to keep all
of these DSA Democrats in line.

01:03:27.779 --> 01:03:30.314
If you remember when Kevin
McCarthy had the House,

01:03:30.397 --> 01:03:34.608
he had a very thin majority, and he lost
his speakership because he couldn't quite

01:03:34.691 --> 01:03:38.692
keep the Freedom Caucus in line. I think
Hakeem Jeffries is going to have very

01:03:38.775 --> 01:03:41.729
similar problems if the Democrats
take the House. So look,

01:03:41.812 --> 01:03:45.761
I even noticed Mark Halperin's been
predicting a blue tsunami for last month,

01:03:45.844 --> 01:03:47.520
but he's starting to hedge that.

01:03:47.640 --> 01:03:50.826
So I think the pro-Democrat,
pro-Blue sentiment peaked, I think,

01:03:50.909 --> 01:03:54.759
about two weeks ago. And since then,
it's been very positive economic numbers

01:03:54.842 --> 01:03:58.641
for the president. The Republicans need
to go out there and tell that story.

01:03:58.724 --> 01:04:02.420
You know, can't have all this Doomer
stuff. We've got to turn this around.

01:04:02.504 --> 01:04:06.200
I think we just neutralized this whole
AI safety issue at the White House.

01:04:06.284 --> 01:04:09.622
So I think that the next month
actually – If there had to be a war,

01:04:09.706 --> 01:04:11.800
what do you think the situation would be?

01:04:12.360 --> 01:04:16.340
Well, look, I mean, you know, again,
I said that the one missing piece here

01:04:16.424 --> 01:04:20.513
is diesel prices. So you get the price
of diesel down and that'll be the last

01:04:20.596 --> 01:04:24.793
remaining unlock on inflation that'll
bring rates down and the economy is going

01:04:24.876 --> 01:04:27.611
to hit, you know, 5% GDP growth.
So without the war,

01:04:27.694 --> 01:04:29.941
you think the Republicans
could have swept?

01:04:30.024 --> 01:04:33.733
Or there's ways of solving that problem
with diesel. I mean, and look,

01:04:33.817 --> 01:04:37.201
in the last week, I mean,
this is the news report. OK, you know,

01:04:37.285 --> 01:04:41.240
I don't know the reality of what's
happening in Hormuz, but according to.

01:04:41.490 --> 01:04:45.187
all the publications, they just got a
record amount of oil out of Hormuz. Yeah,

01:04:45.270 --> 01:04:48.796
[Speaker 4] they're doing night shipping
with the lights off kind of situation?

01:04:48.879 --> 01:04:51.583
Yeah, interesting. So, look,
if we can just wrap that – look,

01:04:51.666 --> 01:04:54.247
I'm in favor of wrapping it up,
don't get me wrong, but –

01:04:54.330 --> 01:04:56.591
[Speaker 2] I think the president
says indicate he'll do that.

01:04:56.674 --> 01:04:59.087
He doesn't want to be pressured
into doing it before the election.

01:04:59.170 --> 01:05:02.621
[Speaker 4] You said that very clearly.
What do you think is going to happen here?

01:05:02.704 --> 01:05:04.957
Prediction for the election.
We're a month out.

01:05:05.040 --> 01:05:07.490
[Speaker 1] From the numbers
that I'm looking at,

01:05:07.680 --> 01:05:08.980
The Senate, I think, is...

01:05:09.960 --> 01:05:14.170
very much a toss-up, but I
think can remain Republican.

01:05:14.910 --> 01:05:18.560
And I think the Democrats are going
to have a slim majority in the House.

01:05:18.720 --> 01:05:20.160
Okay, same as snacks. Yeah.

01:05:21.060 --> 01:05:23.580
And I think the... The way that...

01:05:23.790 --> 01:05:27.550
the president can seal the deal,
so to speak, is I think you have to

01:05:28.530 --> 01:05:33.440
focus on the economic gains and,
And you have to dispel...

01:05:35.130 --> 01:05:38.760
the Doomer narrative. And I think if
you can stay focused on that for the next

01:05:38.844 --> 01:05:40.594
month, I think the Republicans have

01:05:40.830 --> 01:05:44.350
a pretty decent shot. Now,
the other side is also true. If you can...

01:05:44.520 --> 01:05:45.680
distract people,

01:05:47.190 --> 01:05:51.140
and focus on the one or two things that
are still problematic, like gas prices.

01:05:51.510 --> 01:05:53.797
and continue to reinforce
the Doomer narrative,

01:05:53.880 --> 01:05:56.740
you have a chance to overachieve
if you're the Democrats.

01:05:57.180 --> 01:06:00.298
So I think this is how it's
going to come down, Jason.

01:06:00.381 --> 01:06:02.160
Can you focus on a few things?

01:06:02.310 --> 01:06:05.971
Issues like gas prices, or do you look
at a broad-based look at the economy?

01:06:06.054 --> 01:06:07.004
That's on one side.

01:06:07.170 --> 01:06:11.482
And do you look at superintelligence as a
constructive force of GDP growth or do you

01:06:11.565 --> 01:06:15.563
buy the boomer narrative? And I think
what we're going to see is who is better

01:06:15.647 --> 01:06:20.550
organized. And who gets that message
out the cleanest? And whoever does that,

01:06:21.090 --> 01:06:22.657
[Speaker 4] for sure wins the house.

01:06:22.740 --> 01:06:26.075
Yeah, I think the dumerism, Freiburg,
is like not a huge winning issue.

01:06:26.159 --> 01:06:29.109
All I have to say is Trump
promised not to start a war. He did.

01:06:29.192 --> 01:06:31.564
He promised to solve inflation.
He didn't. The end.

01:06:31.647 --> 01:06:35.223
And I think the Democrats sweep. What's
your take on what's going to happen,

01:06:35.307 --> 01:06:36.140
Freiburg?

01:06:41.700 --> 01:06:45.940
[Speaker 1] Yeah, I think the more
important question is what happens between

01:06:46.410 --> 01:06:49.730
26 and 28. Go ahead, take that one.
That was my follow-up.

01:06:50.100 --> 01:06:53.580
[Speaker 4] What do you think
happens between 26 and 28?

01:06:54.210 --> 01:06:56.150
Whether we split, sweep, either way.

01:06:58.050 --> 01:07:00.750
[Speaker 1] Yeah, I think
that those are kind of like,

01:07:00.930 --> 01:07:05.690
a consequence and it's not just split
or sweep. I think what happens is,

01:07:05.970 --> 01:07:10.918
Between 26 and 28 is how far left do the
Democrats go and how much does that get

01:07:11.001 --> 01:07:15.320
hardened? And then how much do
the Republicans splinter into this kind

01:07:15.403 --> 01:07:18.610
of populist thing and do
the populist kind of fuse?

01:07:19.980 --> 01:07:23.230
And then we end up in this kind
of socialist takeover of America.

01:07:23.910 --> 01:07:26.641
The America First movement,
I think you're referring to,

01:07:26.724 --> 01:07:30.057
the Tucker Carlson movement.
I actually don't know if that's even...

01:07:30.141 --> 01:07:34.077
Remember there was a Tea Party. There's
a whole bunch of manifestations of these

01:07:34.161 --> 01:07:36.439
social emotions, these
kind of public emotions.

01:07:36.522 --> 01:07:40.358
They all kind of fuse into different
words and different parties and different

01:07:40.442 --> 01:07:43.926
groups. Who knows where it goes?
It's certainly unlikely that the first

01:07:44.009 --> 01:07:47.695
manifestation is the one that sticks
and holds and becomes the biggest one.

01:07:47.778 --> 01:07:50.190
I mean, look, I would
argue the Tea Party was...

01:07:50.400 --> 01:07:53.520
sort of seeded MAGA years later.
Yes, of course.

01:07:54.090 --> 01:07:56.302
But this kind of populist
movement does not –

01:07:56.386 --> 01:07:59.772
like if you look at the first
derivative of it, it's still positive.

01:07:59.855 --> 01:08:02.629
Like the populist sentiment
is still growing in America.

01:08:02.712 --> 01:08:06.761
And that's what I really care about the
most because I do think that that's where

01:08:06.844 --> 01:08:08.630
individual liberties get destroyed.

01:08:09.030 --> 01:08:13.030
as populism effectively mandates
a bigger kind of government movement.

01:08:13.350 --> 01:08:15.270
to solve our individual problems.

01:08:16.110 --> 01:08:20.435
And I worry that we've got some looming
crises, looming crisis, number one,

01:08:20.519 --> 01:08:24.810
being social security, looming crisis,
number two, being where rates are.

01:08:25.080 --> 01:08:28.120
and the impact that's going to have
on affordability looming crisis.

01:08:28.203 --> 01:08:31.794
Number three being that this idea of an
asset tax is actually going to solve any

01:08:31.877 --> 01:08:32.710
problems where

01:08:32.850 --> 01:08:36.829
The truth is, like I've said in the past,
if you took 100% of the net wealth of all

01:08:36.912 --> 01:08:39.912
the billionaires in the United
States as a tax, a one-time tax,

01:08:39.995 --> 01:08:44.300
and took 100% of their net worth, It would
fund one year of the federal government.

01:08:44.580 --> 01:08:48.617
All the billionaire's money combined is
one year of federal government spending.

01:08:48.700 --> 01:08:51.346
It doesn't really move
the needle to do an asset tax,

01:08:51.430 --> 01:08:55.364
that there's a fundamental restructuring
of how we tax and how we spend that's

01:08:55.447 --> 01:08:56.580
going to be necessary.

01:08:57.120 --> 01:09:01.942
You either need to tax the middle class,
which is where $160 trillion of America's

01:09:02.025 --> 01:09:06.350
$183 trillion net worth sits,
or you've got to cut spending massively,

01:09:06.540 --> 01:09:09.579
or you've got to completely
restructure these entitlement programs,

01:09:09.663 --> 01:09:13.354
all of which are deeply unpopular. All
three of those paths are deeply unpopular.

01:09:13.438 --> 01:09:16.938
So when something deeply unpopular
starts to kind of be the only path,

01:09:17.700 --> 01:09:19.828
What happens? And that's
what I worry most about.

01:09:19.912 --> 01:09:23.123
And I think that's all going to kind
of come to a head between 26 and 28.

01:09:23.206 --> 01:09:26.057
I think it's going to frame
the political calculus going into 28.

01:09:26.140 --> 01:09:28.659
[Speaker 4] It's going to be
fascinating and we'll be here for it.

01:09:28.742 --> 01:09:32.442
I don't know if you guys had time when
you were busy here, but there was a

01:09:33.000 --> 01:09:34.660
hijacking that occurred.

01:09:34.800 --> 01:09:39.760
slash terrorist attack, I think is the
only way to describe it. Fly Dubai, flight

01:09:40.440 --> 01:09:46.777
from Dubai to Tel Aviv.
David had 174 passages on board.

01:09:46.860 --> 01:09:49.620
An Omani co-pilot, apparently...

01:09:50.700 --> 01:09:54.320
stabbed the captain and tried
to crash the plane...

01:09:55.590 --> 01:10:01.370
in a 9-11 style attack.
Passengers, bravely, subdued him

01:10:01.690 --> 01:10:05.290
And there were off-duty
pilots on the plane...

01:10:06.130 --> 01:10:07.480
miraculously, miraculously,

01:10:07.570 --> 01:10:12.490
I mean, what are the chances?
And they somehow, during this period,

01:10:14.380 --> 01:10:17.398
terrorists trying to down
the plane, Friedberg,

01:10:17.481 --> 01:10:22.742
were able to not only remove him, but get
these off-duty pilots into the cockpit,

01:10:22.825 --> 01:10:25.200
level the plane, and land it safely.

01:10:26.170 --> 01:10:31.694
One of the most amazing acts of bravery
with this co-pilot who fought off

01:10:31.778 --> 01:10:32.930
the terrorists.

01:10:33.430 --> 01:10:37.516
And then three or four passengers
were able to get into that cockpit,

01:10:37.600 --> 01:10:42.820
drag this terrorist out. And yeah,
land the plane. Your thoughts, Freebird?

01:10:43.180 --> 01:10:47.139
[Speaker 1] Well, I mean, the eyewitness
accounts came out pretty fast and furious

01:10:47.222 --> 01:10:51.132
because these guys had Internet access
as soon as they were able to land in Saudi

01:10:51.215 --> 01:10:54.357
Arabia. And they started
to provide their reports.

01:10:54.441 --> 01:10:58.925
But what really I thought was the most
striking aspect of all of this,

01:10:59.008 --> 01:11:04.015
despite what I thought was incredible
heroism and bravery and just a true kind

01:11:04.098 --> 01:11:05.837
of showing of human spirit.

01:11:05.920 --> 01:11:12.920
was how the media covered it. And I was
deeply saddened because I remember 9-11,

01:11:14.380 --> 01:11:21.028
I remember the shock and the anger and
the stories coming out during that day.

01:11:21.112 --> 01:11:25.170
I remember the the media, the news...

01:11:25.720 --> 01:11:28.620
channels were my source of truth.

01:11:29.410 --> 01:11:31.050
And I watched it all day.

01:11:31.210 --> 01:11:34.497
And then yesterday, this happened.
And so here's an example.

01:11:34.581 --> 01:11:38.300
This is the New York Times...
cover the day after 9/11.

01:11:38.530 --> 01:11:44.530
Hijacked jets destroy Twin Towers and
notice this and hit Pentagon in day of...

01:11:44.740 --> 01:11:45.573
Terror.

01:11:46.120 --> 01:11:48.140
And it really was a day of terror.

01:11:48.580 --> 01:11:50.260
It was a truly tragic...

01:11:51.460 --> 01:11:52.610
event in human history.

01:11:53.740 --> 01:11:57.320
regardless of your political
or social beliefs then or now.

01:11:57.670 --> 01:12:02.175
the loss of life, In this case, the loss
of life in conflict that followed,

01:12:02.258 --> 01:12:04.150
the loss of life in conflict that

01:12:04.750 --> 01:12:07.230
around October 7th and that followed that.

01:12:07.600 --> 01:12:09.520
It's all tragic, and it's all terror.

01:12:09.910 --> 01:12:13.234
And it's all awful.
And the reporting yesterday on this event,

01:12:13.317 --> 01:12:16.140
which I found to be kind
of emotionally distressing, was

01:12:17.020 --> 01:12:22.230
Almost like a strange... casting
of the experience as being one of a fight

01:12:22.720 --> 01:12:25.070
between two buddies
that weren't getting along.

01:12:25.510 --> 01:12:25.550
The pilots got into a scuffle.

01:12:25.620 --> 01:12:28.586
[Speaker 4] It was the
original reporting, yes.

01:12:28.669 --> 01:12:33.322
The first one was New York Times came
out and said it was an altercation.

01:12:33.405 --> 01:12:36.130
And then the journal called it a struggle.

01:12:36.460 --> 01:12:39.222
[Speaker 1] The BBC called
it a fight between pilots.

01:12:39.305 --> 01:12:41.560
Sky News called it a brawl between pilots.

01:12:42.130 --> 01:12:47.085
AFP called it said they were fighting.
Even CNN said it was a altercation.

01:12:47.168 --> 01:12:51.070
And there were direct eyewitness
reports coming out at this time

01:12:51.700 --> 01:12:54.600
about this guy trying to take
over the plane and crash it.

01:12:55.090 --> 01:12:58.990
And this was clearly a terror event.
And we stopped using this word terror.

01:12:59.200 --> 01:13:01.500
For some reason,
because when we use terror...

01:13:01.600 --> 01:13:05.578
It doesn't allow us to politicize and
create sides of a story and a long form

01:13:05.661 --> 01:13:09.111
narrative that I believe so much
of the media is trying to portray.

01:13:09.195 --> 01:13:13.278
And I'm not going to try and say what
their narrative is and who's trying to do

01:13:13.361 --> 01:13:16.420
it. But here's the next day
on The New York Times website.

01:13:17.710 --> 01:13:20.828
So this is the day after when all
the facts of the case have come out.

01:13:20.911 --> 01:13:24.211
What happened? This is the front
page of the New York Times today.

01:13:24.520 --> 01:13:28.213
A day after, with all of the witnesses,
with all of the journalism that would

01:13:28.296 --> 01:13:31.067
allow you to validate multiply
witnesses on what happened,

01:13:31.150 --> 01:13:34.430
on this flight that investigators
seek to establish a motive

01:13:35.500 --> 01:13:39.006
The story is that the guy tried
to crash a plane full of passengers.

01:13:39.090 --> 01:13:42.702
He took over the plane and he tried
to do it. Number one bullet point,

01:13:42.785 --> 01:13:44.580
737 sustained the enormous stress.

01:13:45.040 --> 01:13:47.660
Number two, investigators
seek to answer the motive.

01:13:48.550 --> 01:13:53.857
And in bullet point number three, Israeli
politicians use the attack to try to score

01:13:53.941 --> 01:13:55.940
points. in this month's election.

01:13:57.730 --> 01:14:00.050
And so I just kind of lost faith.

01:14:00.310 --> 01:14:05.594
yesterday and today and how the media is
kind of characterizing facts on the ground

01:14:05.677 --> 01:14:08.910
that there is human tragedy,
that there is terror.

01:14:09.100 --> 01:14:10.971
And that from their view,
from their writing,

01:14:11.055 --> 01:14:14.012
this ends up becoming a place to kind
of sell, I think, unfortunately,

01:14:14.095 --> 01:14:17.009
a narrative that is all too popular
and is what's going to sell them.

01:14:17.093 --> 01:14:19.659
And they don't want to lose
people by saying the wrong thing.

01:14:19.742 --> 01:14:21.657
And they want to say
what they think is right.

01:14:21.741 --> 01:14:24.227
And I don't know who
the individuals are behind all of it.

01:14:24.310 --> 01:14:28.104
But I just found it to be pretty shocking
for me that 25 years ago to today,

01:14:28.188 --> 01:14:32.084
how much has changed in the landscape
of the people that we trust that we call

01:14:32.167 --> 01:14:36.216
journalists to tell us the truth of what's
going on and to try and recharacterize

01:14:36.300 --> 01:14:40.145
such horrific events because it doesn't
quite conform to a specific narrative

01:14:40.228 --> 01:14:42.543
that they've been trying
to sell for some time.

01:14:42.626 --> 01:14:46.370
So I was deeply upset about the whole
thing. I wanted to bring it up. Yeah,

01:14:46.453 --> 01:14:47.177
I mean.

01:14:47.260 --> 01:14:48.710
[Speaker 4] reasonably upset.

01:14:50.080 --> 01:14:50.547
[Speaker 1] Two different responses.

01:14:50.630 --> 01:14:54.360
[Speaker 4] And I do think
a big shout out to the pilot.

01:14:54.460 --> 01:14:57.884
[Speaker 1] If you read the reports, he
wouldn't go to the bathroom because he had

01:14:57.967 --> 01:15:00.377
suspicions that his co-pilot
was going to do something.

01:15:00.460 --> 01:15:04.383
He called for an emergency urinary bag
and he stayed in the cockpit to pee in his

01:15:04.466 --> 01:15:07.016
urinary bag. That's when
the guy tried to kill him.

01:15:07.510 --> 01:15:11.910
He fought the guy off. While he
was stabbed and bleeding out to death,

01:15:12.190 --> 01:15:16.707
heroically opened up the cockpit door, and
screamed for passengers to come and help.

01:15:16.790 --> 01:15:18.850
And then several heroic souls stepped up,

01:15:19.240 --> 01:15:22.540
and saved the day and saved 170
some odd lives. That's the story.

01:15:22.623 --> 01:15:25.350
It's a story of terror.
It's a story of human heroism.

01:15:25.434 --> 01:15:29.462
I don't care where these people are from.
I don't care what religion anyone is.

01:15:29.545 --> 01:15:32.460
I don't care what political
interests anyone might have.

01:15:32.650 --> 01:15:36.672
This is the story that needs to be told.
And it is being kind of bullshit recast

01:15:36.755 --> 01:15:40.623
by the media about Israeli politicians
trying to score points is what the New

01:15:40.706 --> 01:15:43.445
York Times is trying to sell
on their cover page today,

01:15:43.528 --> 01:15:46.267
as opposed to the story
of what really took place here.

01:15:46.351 --> 01:15:50.475
And then the New York Times, you know, got
so much shit over it that they started,

01:15:50.558 --> 01:15:54.529
Jake, I'll you can cover this, but. Yeah.
And the New York Times communications

01:15:54.612 --> 01:15:58.050
account says, based on the early
tweet, which was, hey, there were.

01:15:58.330 --> 01:16:00.677
[Speaker 4] There
was an altercation. Quote,

01:16:00.760 --> 01:16:05.150
our headlines and live coverage contain
all the facts we're able to confirm as we

01:16:05.233 --> 01:16:07.635
confirm them.
Unlike activists and partisans,

01:16:07.718 --> 01:16:10.673
we don't publish speculation
or unverified information.

01:16:10.756 --> 01:16:14.207
Here's a gift link to follow
along to our reporting, yada, yada.

01:16:14.290 --> 01:16:17.797
So I guess two topics there, Sachs.
You have the real time issue,

01:16:17.880 --> 01:16:20.310
which is certainly very
different than 9-11.

01:16:21.880 --> 01:16:22.940
And that was a,

01:16:23.800 --> 01:16:26.767
An attack where people
took credit pretty quickly,

01:16:26.850 --> 01:16:31.220
if my memory serves me correctly.
And in this case, we're left to wonder,

01:16:31.304 --> 01:16:33.500
lone wolf, coordinated attack, etc.,

01:16:34.450 --> 01:16:38.100
But certainly strange the next day's
coverage, I think, at a minimum, is,

01:16:38.710 --> 01:16:42.300
that they can't call this a terrorist
attack, a little bit odd.

01:16:42.384 --> 01:16:43.550
Your thoughts, next?

01:16:44.320 --> 01:16:49.208
[Speaker 2] Well, I think we can probably
infer what the motive here was. I mean,

01:16:49.292 --> 01:16:51.848
it was terrorism.
This was a Dubai airline,

01:16:51.931 --> 01:16:54.947
but I think all the passengers
were Israeli. Yeah.

01:16:55.030 --> 01:16:58.630
One other detail I thought
was interesting was that...

01:16:59.320 --> 01:17:03.727
When the pilot yelled for help, I guess,
then a few of the pastors stormed

01:17:03.810 --> 01:17:08.240
the cockpit. The terrorist was yanked
out of there by an Israeli plumber.

01:17:08.680 --> 01:17:12.834
I love it. Yeah. I don't think that's
like CIA plumber. I think that was,

01:17:12.917 --> 01:17:16.258
I think it's like a real plumber.
Yeah. This guy has those,

01:17:16.341 --> 01:17:20.147
those Israelis are tough.
I gotta say they're, they're quite tough.

01:17:20.230 --> 01:17:23.913
[Speaker 4] The bravery to jump
in the cockpit like that. And then I just,

01:17:23.997 --> 01:17:25.320
I mean, how the, the, the,

01:17:25.900 --> 01:17:30.082
the fortuitous and I guess conspiracy
theorists are now losing their minds,

01:17:30.165 --> 01:17:34.681
but, uh, To be able to have two pilots
who were able there and get this landed,

01:17:34.764 --> 01:17:38.260
absolutely fantastic. And so glad
people's lives have been saved.

01:17:39.070 --> 01:17:44.970
I'll save the false flag nonsense
and whatever for a conspiracy show.

01:17:45.640 --> 01:17:48.907
somebody else can handle
that issue. Chamath, listen,

01:17:48.990 --> 01:17:52.320
we've said a lot here about it.
Glad everybody's safe.

01:17:52.404 --> 01:17:54.300
Any final thoughts as we wrap?

01:17:54.850 --> 01:17:56.990
[Speaker 1] A Omani national...

01:17:58.600 --> 01:18:00.760
stabbed an Indian pilot

01:18:02.050 --> 01:18:05.010
and then try to down a plane...

01:18:05.680 --> 01:18:06.720
full of Israelis.

01:18:07.570 --> 01:18:08.770
That is what happened.

01:18:10.360 --> 01:18:12.360
And any attempt...

01:18:14.200 --> 01:18:15.380
to try to

01:18:16.510 --> 01:18:20.460
cover up any of those facts? is cowardly.

01:18:22.600 --> 01:18:23.780
I've worked in Israel.

01:18:25.480 --> 01:18:27.480
I've had some incredible memories there.

01:18:27.820 --> 01:18:32.230
I think At some point, we all just
need to take a step back and realize...

01:18:32.440 --> 01:18:36.048
What happened October 7th was horrible.
What's happened in Palestine,

01:18:36.131 --> 01:18:36.964
also horrible.

01:18:37.780 --> 01:18:42.583
But you cannot now see these kinds of
things and look past them because you care

01:18:42.667 --> 01:18:45.660
more about the narrative
than what the facts are.

01:18:46.300 --> 01:18:49.020
Those are 150, 170...

01:18:49.990 --> 01:18:55.430
Ernest. Normal people, living lives.
Humans, yeah. Fathers, mothers.

01:18:55.720 --> 01:18:59.360
Brothers, sisters, kids, they didn't
deserve to get plunged into the ground

01:18:59.443 --> 01:19:00.276
and die.

01:19:01.240 --> 01:19:02.073
So,

01:19:02.560 --> 01:19:08.720
I think this idea that you can now
whitewash what happens, enough is enough.

01:19:11.140 --> 01:19:14.534
And I think we need to find a way
to actually tell the truth for what things

01:19:14.617 --> 01:19:15.450
are.

01:19:16.630 --> 01:19:21.150
So I was really, really, really
disappointed in how the media handled it.

01:19:23.290 --> 01:19:28.475
And I think it's dangerous. And I think
it's yet another demonstration that these

01:19:28.558 --> 01:19:31.290
people have absolutely no moral authority.

01:19:31.960 --> 01:19:35.960
left in society.
They're just pathetic, putrid

01:19:36.280 --> 01:19:38.866
And by the way, they're coordinated.
When you see the words,

01:19:38.949 --> 01:19:41.891
the same words over and over,
altercation, altercation, altercation,

01:19:41.975 --> 01:19:45.060
it's very powerful. It means
that it starts from one place.

01:19:46.660 --> 01:19:50.960
If you believe that you are reading
this stuff and you're getting the facts...

01:19:51.070 --> 01:19:54.490
You're just not. And so it implies that
one guy did something wrong to the other

01:19:54.574 --> 01:19:58.474
guy and they got in a fight. That's not
what happened. That's what it implies.

01:20:00.530 --> 01:20:05.037
[Speaker 4] trying to have the most
charitable interpretation here, like, Why?

01:20:05.120 --> 01:20:10.200
So in the moment, if you didn't
know what happened, but then...

01:20:10.370 --> 01:20:14.020
After it happened, you would just very
easily be able to say potential terrorist

01:20:14.103 --> 01:20:14.347
attack.

01:20:14.430 --> 01:20:17.430
[Speaker 3] There was live
footage coming from the airplane.

01:20:19.400 --> 01:20:20.217
[Speaker 4] Of course.

01:20:20.300 --> 01:20:24.600
[Speaker 3] But how do you describe it
as a suicidal person? That's my point.

01:20:24.740 --> 01:20:27.267
[Speaker 4] In the moment,
you could give them a...

01:20:27.350 --> 01:20:29.836
hey, you don't know what's happening.
You want to be cautious here.

01:20:29.920 --> 01:20:30.820
If it's a suicide,

01:20:31.310 --> 01:20:34.606
If it is an actual fight or if
it's a terrorist attack, okay, fine.

01:20:34.689 --> 01:20:38.439
I could have a little bit of room there
to be like, okay. But then after it,

01:20:38.522 --> 01:20:41.750
like how could you not say this
is an apparent terrorist attack?

01:20:42.050 --> 01:20:46.068
Or a mentally ill person. Those are
the two possibilities here. Period.

01:20:46.151 --> 01:20:50.747
Full stop. And then you really have to get
into what what is the motivation here?

01:20:50.830 --> 01:20:55.121
[Speaker 2] Yeah, look, I think the moral
principle here is that all attacks

01:20:55.204 --> 01:20:59.092
on civilians are wrong. And that's
what this was. And it was, I mean,

01:20:59.176 --> 01:21:01.190
pretty clearly an act of terrorism.

01:21:01.430 --> 01:21:05.032
And regardless of who's doing it,
that's the thing we have to denounce.

01:21:05.115 --> 01:21:08.561
That's right. Is even when there's
a military conflict taking place,

01:21:08.644 --> 01:21:11.810
attacks on civilians are wrong.
Yeah. And that's a war crime.

01:21:12.320 --> 01:21:15.800
And there's a lot of that happening.
So it's not the only case.

01:21:15.883 --> 01:21:17.580
But all of that needs to stop.

01:21:17.990 --> 01:21:24.580
[Speaker 5] All right, that's your All
In, episode 291 for October 2nd, 2026.

01:21:24.663 --> 01:21:27.870
We'll see you all next week. Bye-bye.

01:21:47.990 --> 01:21:54.990
[Speaker 7] Besties are gone.

01:22:17.990 --> 01:22:24.990
[Speaker 1] I'm doing all in.