1
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[Speaker 1] Another huge
shout out to Starlink.

2
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How good do I sound right now?
It's actually great. It's flawless.

3
00:00:05,220 --> 00:00:07,375
It's flawless. It's shocking.
It's amazing. Nick,

4
00:00:07,458 --> 00:00:10,343
show this behind the scenes shot
of what it took to get us going.

5
00:00:10,427 --> 00:00:11,427
Starlink is bananas.

6
00:00:12,180 --> 00:00:13,700
that's amazing

7
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Do you guys want to know something about
the Starlink network that I think is just

8
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kind of coming out now?

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Basically, the Starlink network, because
it's putting out radio waves and it can

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pick up radio waves
and you've got so many of them,

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you've basically got a phased array
telescope looking down on the Earth

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and you can pick up. what would
otherwise be stealth aircraft from above.

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So there's a UFO detector, you're saying?
It's a stealth airplane detector.

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That's a UFO detector. It could be
a UFO detector, but the Starlink...

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Networked.

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basically becomes this incredible radar
system that sits above the Earth to look

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down on things that would normally be
stealth from the surface of the Earth.

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[Speaker 2] So does this mean we don't
have to do a science corner today?

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Because you just did it.

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[Speaker 3] Great to see you. As one
of the architects of Bretton Woods 2.0,

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[Speaker 1] Sats is on a high.
He's coming in hot.

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[Speaker 4] All right, everybody,
welcome back to this week in AI. Sorry,

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00:01:25,805 --> 00:01:29,583
all in podcast. And we've got a ton
of news to get to on the docket.

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You're such an idiot.
You're an idiot. I mean,

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it's just the every week is AI on top
of AI on top of AI. You have a show.

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Called This Week in AI, and you cover
nothing about AI. No, no, we cover AI,

27
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but thank you for the plug.
ThisWeekinAI.AI,

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00:01:42,257 --> 00:01:44,734
sign up for the newsletter.
This Week in Superintelligence.

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I'm going to change the name.
This Week in...

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[Speaker 2] What you should say is we
have four super intelligences here.

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[Speaker 4] We have four
super intelligences here.

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To super intelligence, the week's news.
To intelligently discuss the news. Yes,

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and what a week it was. We were
sitting here just a couple of weeks ago,

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or sitting in Los Angeles, I should say,
and there was a bit of a chaotic moment.

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Hey, should we be auditing or...

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de-selling with all this AI
and Three weeks later...

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President Trump, held a super
intelligent summit in D.C.,

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Many of the besties were there,
or three or four, I should say.

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on Tuesday,

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President Trump convened the biggest
names in AI, Elon, Jensen, Zuck, Dario,

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Sundar, Satya, yada, yada, yada.

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all the way down the line,
and everybody from the government as well.

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I could ramble on about this, but Sax,
I have a feeling you were instrumental

44
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in setting this up. So maybe
I'll just hand it off to you.

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Tell us how this went down so quickly.

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and then what the outcome
is of this situation.

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Super Intelligence Summit.

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[Speaker 2] Well, the reason it happened
so quickly is because President Trump

49
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convened all of these
people to the White House.

50
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And I think he's the only person who could
get all the CEOs of all these companies

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in one room.

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I mean, these are the leading companies
in the world across data centers,

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across chips, hyperscalers,
and then obviously frontier models.

54
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And many of them, frankly,
don't like each other.

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They have disputes with one
another. We all know this.

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They may have lawsuits with one another.

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All of that didn't matter because
President Trump called them to the White

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House for this conversation.

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And I've called it the Bretton
Woods of superintelligence.

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This was the first gathering.

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of really all the critical
players across the entire stack

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of the industry.
And I think we had a really good

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open and honest conversation
about both the opportunities and,

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And the rest of superintelligence.
And as a result of that meeting,

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I'd say during the meeting, we worked out
this agreement that has come to be known

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as the White House Accord
on Superintelligence.

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That was then signed by the six
major frontier companies.

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model companies. And I think we'll now
apply a new rigor and new set of controls

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on the development of superintelligence
so that the public can be more confident

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that this will be done safely.

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And if I could just highlight a few
of the key features. So first of all,

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the companies who are developing these
products acknowledge that they are

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responsible. They have
to be the responsible actors.

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Let's not deflect it onto someone else.

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or anthropomorphize the models
or talk about the United Nations.

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These companies accept responsibility,
number one. Number two, they agree.

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to have internal controls and to have
those internal controls verified by

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an internal team that does that.
But we don't just leave it to,

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quote unquote, self-policing.
It starts there.

80
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But then you have external auditors
who will then validate and verify.

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that the internal controls are working.
And these companies will set up

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an independent committee of the board
to then receive those reports.

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And as Gavin Baker
pointed out this morning,

84
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when the board receives a report
from an external auditor,

85
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you can't disregard that.
It's not optional.

86
00:05:02,037 --> 00:05:05,682
The board has a massive fiduciary
duty to then act on that. Otherwise,

87
00:05:05,765 --> 00:05:09,835
their DNO policy can get canceled, right?
So now the board is going to receive

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the report of the external auditor,
and they have to make sure that,

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as a board that they're overseeing,
they're providing oversight to make sure

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that the frontier development
is happening safely. And then finally,

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sitting behind all of that,
you still have the FTC,

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and the SEC, which have the ability and
the responsibility to enforce the public

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commitments of these companies. So
although this agreement was entered into

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voluntarily, the governance that
follows from it is not voluntary.

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It is now voluntary.

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[Speaker 4] It's fiduciary.
This is a critical point.

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[Speaker 5] Because it's
an audit, and D and O,

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for people who may be not familiar
with the directors and officers,

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that's the liability insurance that that
board of directors has in case something

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goes wrong. So this has got teeth to it.
Even though it was voluntary,

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it has deep, deep hooks
into the board of directors.

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[Speaker 2] of that conversation.

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We got the major companies to sign it,
and I think everyone in the room...

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There's basically a consensus around it.
And these controls can now be implemented

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basically immediately or very,
very quickly automatically.

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And it doesn't require new legislation.
It certainly doesn't require some new

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international agreement
that's never going to happen.

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So this is something
that can be done right away.

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I think it's a credit to the president.
And I think this should, in large part,

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I think address many of the concerns that
the public has about the safe development

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of super intelligence. And I think there's
a lot of Democrats right now who don't

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want to give the president credit around
this because they want to keep using it

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as a campaign issue. But the reality is
that I think the president dealt with it.

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swiftly and sensibly and practically
this is way more practical

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than trying to declare a pause

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on frontier development that China would
never go along with or creating some DMV

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for models that, again, would slow us
down to the point where China just wins.

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So this is very practical and it's
immediate and the president deserves

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credit, even though the Democrats
won't give it to him.

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But I'll notice that even Jacob Coxson.

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Where, you know,

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[Speaker 5] in a way you could say
that the whistleblower, quote unquote,

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the so-called rage quit after six weeks,
who is working with the PR firm for the.

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Yes. Yes. I would say fake whistleblower
because he was working with the PR firm

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the whole time, even though he said
he was an official whistleblower or

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the artificial whistleblower. But look,
even he said that he was happy to read

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this. He was giving credit
to the president. So maybe.

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[Speaker 4] Everybody else should.
I mean, even the most cynical person,

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Shamath, looking at this would say, great
first step, right? Like, if you just...

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wanted the

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global UN, United Nations of AI,
this would be a great precursor to that,

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a first step where everybody's
opting in to be regulated,

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to regulate themselves, as we discussed on
this very podcast with the MPAA analogy.

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And here we are three weeks later. Take us
behind the scenes. There was one notable

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Addition. to the group of AI
executives, Dario from Anthropik,

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is obviously very anti-Trump.
He has never shown up for these things.

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The organization is 96% anti- Trump left
leaning, et cetera, but he participated.

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So how did Dario wind up participating
in this? How did he wind up?

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doing dinner one-on-one
with the president.

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Take us to the palace intrigue here.
Dario was a conscientious objector.

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He did not want to participate in any
of this. And now he was front and center.

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I can tell you what I heard,
and I just think it speaks to...

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[Speaker 1] how conscientious
and gracious the president is.

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I think there was like a couple of
previous events He noticed that Dario...

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wasn't invited and actually
just called and said, you know,

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this is an oversight and they
invited him to dinner.

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And I think that's how it started.
And they had dinner, I think,

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two nights before
that was widely reported.

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And then he stayed and he was at
the dinner. So I think it was just...

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very smart, strategic thing to do.
It was also a very...

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conscientious and very polite

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thing to do as well, just to make sure
that this is a broad coalition of people

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that were included. And I think that's
sort of been the general pattern that

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the president has exhibited.
Let me maybe give you a couple of other

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things that happened at the luncheon
that had an impact on me. The first was,

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It sounds like a very simple
statement, but the gravity of it,

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kind of has built in my mind
as I thought about it. He says,

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whoever wins super intelligence wins.
And then he just stopped talking.

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That was the first line of his prepared
remarks. And then he said it again.

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And when you think about it,

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He's completely right. There is no
world in which you're going to...

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have this multinational corpus of people
trying to allocate wins and losses on

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this thing. This is on the order
of the Industrial Revolution. In fact,

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Sachs had some really nice comments
at the luncheon, which framed it as,

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[Speaker 3] even bigger than
the Industrial Revolution.

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He went through the numbers
and it's bigger than

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the industrial revolution and like
three or four other things all added up

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together, this thing is still bigger.

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[Speaker 2] The railroads, the canals,
and the electrical grid combined.

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[Speaker 4] And the pyramids
in the Great Wall of China.

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That was in the Wall
Street Journal last week.

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[Speaker 3] When you
think about it that way,

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It's very important that we win. And so
he started by setting the stage that way.

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He had a couple of other specific things,
which was it's really important that

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The extremely positive use cases...

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that exist out of AI. And now SI.

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Hart demonstrated and he said, you have a
responsibility to lead with the benefits.

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And then he said, you also
have a responsibility to impact

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the local communities
in which you operate.

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And he pointed at Meta as an example
of a company doing really good things,

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with teacher bonuses and hospitals. And we
heard about that from Dina at the All-In

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Summit.

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And he said, you need to continue
to do these things. But meanwhile,

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we have to have the checks and balances
to trust and verify. After the luncheon,

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I had to fly to Orlando.

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Because we at 8090 have
a long-term partnership with...

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Merson Young. And

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I was speaking to their 3,400
partners and one of the things that...

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Ernst & Young in 80-90.

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we're doing was building an entire audit
infrastructure for super intelligence.

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And what's so cool is that we have been
building it for EY as our first customer.

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But on the heels of this,
I think we're going to be able to take

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that infrastructure and roll it
out to everybody, as Saks said,

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because everybody's going to need it.
And there's really three things.

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that you're going to need in an age
of super intelligence so that,

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Boards are protected. CEOs have
visibility and all of the other

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compliance infrastructure and governance
infrastructure of a company like D&O

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insurance and all these other
things are kept in place.

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which is end-to-end traceability, Which is
to say, when you deploy superintelligence,

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you need to know what's going on.

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You need to map it. to the policies so
that you understand what the risks are.

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All companies have standard
operating procedures,

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but you need to know exactly when
you're deploying superintelligence,

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how that builds on top of your
standard operating procedures.

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So you need to map policies to risk.
And then the third is you need to have

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auditable evidence.

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which is your way of showing
all of your downstream ecosystem,

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here's what I've done.
So if anybody taps you on the shoulder,

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whether it's a lawyer, whether it's
an auditor, whether it's a regulator,

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whether it's in a lawsuit, whether it's
a customer, "Hey, how did this happen?"

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You can present something. So these
are like very practical, sane things.

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And you can expect folks like EY now
to deploy this broadly and quickly to all

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of the companies that they work with.

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And this is just one extra step. But if
you think about how fast this happened,

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this is like three weeks before.

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And you have this solution
where the alternative was,

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hit the pause on trillions of dollars
of GDP so that we could sort this out in

218
00:12:51,093 --> 00:12:52,400
a multinational body.

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00:12:53,110 --> 00:12:57,108
The alternative was crazy. So I think
what happened was historic and important.

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00:12:57,192 --> 00:13:01,170
Was there any pushback on the Doomerism
narrative? Take us behind the scenes.

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00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:03,000
Jensen was really powerful.

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00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:08,002
He said something to the effect
of alarmism without solutions

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is unproductive. Hmm.

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which I thought was helpful grounding.
But he said, alarmism with solutions...

225
00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,800
It's helpful. Everybody had the same...

226
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,710
perspective in the room to be honest
was that directed at dario that comment it

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00:13:22,793 --> 00:13:27,584
was just generally said but i think you
know if we had to guess did dario respond

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00:13:27,667 --> 00:13:32,518
after that i mean susie and i were sitting
right across from so it's very fun just

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to watch his reactions in general
please unpack it what was his reaction to

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that comment i'd be like he listened got
who moderated the discussion sacks how

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00:13:41,868 --> 00:13:46,260
was this moderate were you the moderator
i noticed i didn't get an invite

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[Speaker 4] But Trump's
a pretty good moderator himself.

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Who moderates the discussion?

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00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:54,304
[Speaker 2] The president moderates it.
The president actually actively moderates

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00:13:54,387 --> 00:13:57,020
it. Oh, yeah. No, no, no.
Give an example of his moderation.

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00:13:57,104 --> 00:14:00,099
I would like to take some notes here.
Well, first when he got there,

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00:14:00,182 --> 00:14:03,042
you know, this is in the East
Room of the White House, I believe.

238
00:14:03,125 --> 00:14:06,483
And through the back of the East Room,
you get to where this new corridor to

239
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the ballroom is going to be.
And so we did a quick tour out there,

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00:14:09,554 --> 00:14:11,267
and he showed us what they're building.

241
00:14:11,350 --> 00:14:13,897
It's really amazing.
This is the new ballroom.

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00:14:13,980 --> 00:14:19,393
[Speaker 4] The new ballroom and the new
East Wing. Did you have to wear hats?

243
00:14:19,476 --> 00:14:23,973
No, no. We walked out there.
What's the sound of that foundation?

244
00:14:24,056 --> 00:14:29,270
They are making record progress.
You know the thing is like seven stories.

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00:14:29,590 --> 00:14:32,032
[Speaker 2] So the ballroom
itself is two stories,

246
00:14:32,115 --> 00:14:35,921
but it goes five stories down. Oh,
so there's all sorts of stuff that they're

247
00:14:36,004 --> 00:14:39,760
building. They're bowling alley. No,
For the military. There's all sorts of,

248
00:14:39,843 --> 00:14:43,530
I know there's like all sorts of vaults
that they want. But in any event,

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00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,443
And he's going to have it done in like
a year, under budget and on schedule.

250
00:14:47,527 --> 00:14:52,547
By the way, when it's done, I predict –
That it'll be so nice that...

251
00:14:52,630 --> 00:14:54,724
All future presidents
will really want to use it,

252
00:14:54,807 --> 00:14:57,567
and it's things that the White
House has needed for a long time.

253
00:14:57,650 --> 00:14:59,000
They're going to look back.

254
00:14:59,260 --> 00:15:01,882
and say, why did they give him
such a hard time doing this?

255
00:15:01,965 --> 00:15:05,320
It's just a distraction, too, by the way.
The fact that we had a builder in

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00:15:05,403 --> 00:15:08,237
the White House who just enjoys
doing it, it's so good at it.

257
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,877
I mean, why wouldn't you take
advantage of those skills?

258
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:16,123
[Speaker 4] All-in annual dinner
party there. We'll have an all-in gala.

259
00:15:16,206 --> 00:15:19,425
Yeah, anyway, it's going
to be a big upgrade. So anyway,

260
00:15:19,508 --> 00:15:22,280
he took us on a little
tour of that, and then –

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00:15:22,420 --> 00:15:24,727
[Speaker 2] He presided
over the conversation. First,

262
00:15:24,810 --> 00:15:27,197
he gave some remarks and he
spoke to the whole group.

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And then he started calling on people.

264
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,183
to give their opinion. And, um,
and so he, he always moderates, uh,

265
00:15:32,266 --> 00:15:34,197
these things.
What was the most challenging?

266
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,986
[Speaker 4] Did you have a challenging
moment? We kind of went at somebody,

267
00:15:38,069 --> 00:15:40,765
a followup question,
anything like that? Well, he just,

268
00:15:40,848 --> 00:15:44,150
he kind of asked people what they
think and how there's a followup.

269
00:15:44,234 --> 00:15:46,760
And then we had a breakout
session of the six, uh,

270
00:15:46,990 --> 00:15:49,217
[Speaker 2] frontier model companies.

271
00:15:49,300 --> 00:15:50,180
And the...

272
00:15:50,470 --> 00:15:55,103
[Speaker 4] Roosevelt Room, I believe.
And that's where we kind of hammered out

273
00:15:55,186 --> 00:15:56,357
the accord. Although,

274
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,776
[Speaker 2] when you're
hammering out that accord,

275
00:15:58,859 --> 00:16:01,146
are you literally there
typing it in Google Docs?

276
00:16:01,230 --> 00:16:04,823
And who's responsible for this typo?
There was a typo in the tweeted version

277
00:16:04,907 --> 00:16:08,327
that became- Yeah, I don't want to say
you're responsible for that, but-

278
00:16:08,410 --> 00:16:12,457
But if that's the only thing people can
find to object to, that's not so bad.

279
00:16:12,540 --> 00:16:16,494
[Speaker 4] Was Satya in Microsoft Word
and he just had to type in too fast?

280
00:16:16,578 --> 00:16:18,490
Yeah, I don't know. But basically...

281
00:16:19,420 --> 00:16:22,764
[Speaker 2] What happened is Zuck
and Jensen talked through some of

282
00:16:22,848 --> 00:16:27,144
the high-level principles of in the
main luncheon. And then Mike Johnson,

283
00:16:27,227 --> 00:16:31,520
the speaker of the house actually had
a copy and he read the whole thing.

284
00:16:31,750 --> 00:16:37,130
And then we discussed it and there
was general agreement and accord with it.

285
00:16:37,270 --> 00:16:40,637
And then we did the breakout session
and there was some wordsmithing,

286
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:44,437
not much, though, to be honest. Everyone
was just good with it. Now, we had,

287
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,337
I mean, the White House had a statement
that had been circulated to the groups

288
00:16:48,420 --> 00:16:51,287
in advance that it was a couple
of paragraphs. But frankly,

289
00:16:51,370 --> 00:16:54,137
this other statement had more
meat on the bone. You know,

290
00:16:54,220 --> 00:16:58,237
the original statement had the statement
of responsibility and it had the creation

291
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,937
of a working group to discuss, you know,
safety issues on an ongoing basis

292
00:17:02,020 --> 00:17:03,270
and share best practices.

293
00:17:07,270 --> 00:17:11,897
audits in the committee of the board, And
I think it's been publicly reported now,

294
00:17:11,980 --> 00:17:16,900
so I'm not really giving anything away,
that Zuckerberg and then Jensen, I think –

295
00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,220
had kind of come forward with that idea.

296
00:17:19,510 --> 00:17:21,457
And everyone was good with it.

297
00:17:21,540 --> 00:17:24,519
[Speaker 4] Any notable moments
where somebody was like, hey,

298
00:17:24,603 --> 00:17:26,979
I need a comma here or I
want to put an end here.

299
00:17:27,063 --> 00:17:30,594
I want to add something to this.
Any notable edits? I mean, like I said,

300
00:17:30,678 --> 00:17:34,611
I mean, people are generally good with it.
And they read it and everyone's like,

301
00:17:34,694 --> 00:17:38,828
yes. Which part do you think has the most
teeth will be the most effective at making

302
00:17:38,912 --> 00:17:41,891
things more secure?
The external audits. The external audits.

303
00:17:41,974 --> 00:17:44,401
Who's going to do an external
audit then, I guess?

304
00:17:44,484 --> 00:17:48,250
Is it going to be an Ernst & Young
type thing? PricewaterhouseCoopers or...

305
00:17:48,580 --> 00:17:51,966
[Speaker 2] KPMG? It might be they
should be professional auditors,

306
00:17:52,049 --> 00:17:55,000
not these NGOs. That's my view.
You're going to see EY...

307
00:17:55,630 --> 00:17:57,237
[Speaker 4] in short order
here or down something.

308
00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,357
[Speaker 3] And Friedberg,
when you look at this,

309
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,994
[Speaker 4] in terms of the speed
and velocity it happened, and you're,

310
00:18:03,077 --> 00:18:04,460
I guess, on the president's

311
00:18:04,930 --> 00:18:08,934
Science and Technology Council now.
Maybe you could speak to, you know,

312
00:18:09,017 --> 00:18:13,770
how quickly this is all occurring and what
the impact might be in terms of America's

313
00:18:13,853 --> 00:18:17,250
competitiveness, because you've
had concerns, hey, maybe...

314
00:18:18,010 --> 00:18:22,018
Slowing down here means China catches up.
So maybe you could talk a little bit

315
00:18:22,101 --> 00:18:25,900
to your prediction, if any, of the
alignment here of all of the companies.

316
00:18:25,983 --> 00:18:28,680
Also of note, just for the
audience, people are like,

317
00:18:28,763 --> 00:18:32,876
Sam Altman's not there. His partner, Greg,
was there. So Sam was doing, I guess,

318
00:18:32,959 --> 00:18:35,110
the launch of some new products they had.

319
00:18:35,860 --> 00:18:40,340
But OpenAI was obviously represented.
So maybe you could talk a little bit about

320
00:18:40,630 --> 00:18:44,424
What you think the impact this will
have on maybe the American public and

321
00:18:44,507 --> 00:18:47,740
their view of AI? I mean,
look, I think we are...

322
00:18:48,070 --> 00:18:52,874
[Speaker 3] We always assumed in the
sci-fi novels that we would be in an era

323
00:18:52,957 --> 00:18:54,290
of having robot wars.

324
00:18:54,640 --> 00:19:00,826
And I think we fail to recognize that the
software came first and we are actually

325
00:19:00,909 --> 00:19:06,430
having the AI wars. And there's a war that
I think we're in the middle of right now.

326
00:19:06,580 --> 00:19:10,080
where there's kind of one
side that wants to...

327
00:19:10,420 --> 00:19:13,420
centralized, control...

328
00:19:13,540 --> 00:19:19,720
manage, regulate, whatever the term
of the day might be, the technology.

329
00:19:20,410 --> 00:19:24,169
And there's another side that I
think is cognizant of the reality of

330
00:19:24,253 --> 00:19:27,503
the technology, which is that
it is effectively ubiquitous.

331
00:19:27,587 --> 00:19:30,442
We talked about this in
the past due to open source,

332
00:19:30,525 --> 00:19:32,390
open weight models proliferating.

333
00:19:32,710 --> 00:19:35,470
The fact that you can
run models on small...

334
00:19:35,590 --> 00:19:40,285
local machines, that you don't
need large clusters to do things,

335
00:19:40,368 --> 00:19:44,250
and that we're seeing model
after model come out now

336
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:48,023
that are not under the jurisdiction
of some centralized system or agency.

337
00:19:48,106 --> 00:19:51,220
Therefore, it becomes very hard
and practically impossible to,

338
00:19:51,670 --> 00:19:54,410
to actually regulate
the development of the software.

339
00:19:54,790 --> 00:19:57,590
That's the truth. It is what it is.
You may not like it,

340
00:19:58,000 --> 00:19:59,050
But it is what it is.

341
00:20:00,020 --> 00:20:02,577
[Speaker 1] And those two sides
are going to continue to fight.

342
00:20:02,660 --> 00:20:05,800
I think that the risks will rise.

343
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:11,020
And as that happens, I'm going to make
two predictions to your question.

344
00:20:11,940 --> 00:20:16,360
The first one is that I think we will
see a massive rise in defense systems.

345
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,909
There is no turning off the open source,
open weight models or shutting down all

346
00:20:22,992 --> 00:20:26,217
the data centers or centralizing
command and control.

347
00:20:26,300 --> 00:20:29,280
There are 197 countries on Earth.

348
00:20:29,700 --> 00:20:32,880
They each have sovereignty.
There's energy everywhere.

349
00:20:33,060 --> 00:20:34,757
They're all connected to the Internet.

350
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,990
Data centers will exist
all over the world.

351
00:20:37,540 --> 00:20:42,002
So the attempt to try and centralize
and manage the control of the software,

352
00:20:42,085 --> 00:20:43,760
I think, is a fool's errand.

353
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,364
But I do think that it's going to mandate,
because the risks will rise,

354
00:20:48,447 --> 00:20:49,957
an increased amount of defense.

355
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,374
And so I think, you know,
companies like Palo Alto Networks,

356
00:20:53,457 --> 00:20:56,676
I think the investment in this space,
what I heard in D.C.

357
00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,860
this week was some Fortune 50 CEOs
are very worried about cyber defense.

358
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,888
That means they're going to start to make
this their number one priority to address

359
00:21:04,972 --> 00:21:05,922
at the board level.

360
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,097
That means the budgets for cyber
defense are going to go through the roof.

361
00:21:09,180 --> 00:21:10,730
Now, let me ask you a question.

362
00:21:11,140 --> 00:21:13,571
When you have to do cyber
defense in an era of A.I.,

363
00:21:13,655 --> 00:21:17,155
are you going to use old school
software or are you going to use A.I.?

364
00:21:17,700 --> 00:21:19,760
Obviously, you're going to use A.I.

365
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:25,815
And because of that, because cyber
defense is going to need to grow, the U.S.

366
00:21:25,899 --> 00:21:30,540
is going to need to provide
competitive AI for cyber defense.

367
00:21:31,300 --> 00:21:33,840
It is a classic arms race scenario.

368
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,900
And so the U.S. cannot simply step
back and pause and turn off AI.

369
00:21:39,100 --> 00:21:41,000
It is already everywhere in the world.

370
00:21:41,420 --> 00:21:42,877
Therefore, the risks are rising.

371
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:48,142
Therefore, we need to increase
our investment in AI to maintain our cyber

372
00:21:48,225 --> 00:21:49,740
defense capabilities.

373
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,752
both at the enterprise level
and at the government level,

374
00:21:52,835 --> 00:21:54,517
and potentially even at the civilian

375
00:21:54,600 --> 00:22:00,308
consumer level. So I think that the cyber
defense necessity actually mandates

376
00:22:00,391 --> 00:22:01,737
that we continue to

377
00:22:01,820 --> 00:22:06,158
build out data centers to support it. The
second prediction I'll make is I think 12

378
00:22:06,241 --> 00:22:06,797
to 18 months

379
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,161
from now, we're going to shift away from
this conversation about managing models,

380
00:22:10,245 --> 00:22:13,615
regulating models, controlling models,
estimating models, scoring models,

381
00:22:13,699 --> 00:22:17,512
all this sort of stuff that's going
on because, like we mentioned last week,

382
00:22:17,595 --> 00:22:20,257
every 11 days we're seeing
new models get published

383
00:22:20,340 --> 00:22:23,708
now. It is unbelievable. And this week,
Google released their new model that also

384
00:22:23,791 --> 00:22:24,177
seems to be

385
00:22:24,260 --> 00:22:28,596
more performant than any other model And
every couple days we seeing a new one come

386
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,909
out So the model control systems are not
going to solve any problems What I think

387
00:22:32,993 --> 00:22:37,382
is going to end up happening and this is a
prediction no one may like but I do think

388
00:22:37,465 --> 00:22:38,607
we going to end up in a

389
00:22:38,690 --> 00:22:42,076
world where governments are going
to regulate data center access and usage.

390
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:43,187
They're going to say the

391
00:22:43,270 --> 00:22:46,557
data centers are here, but in order
to maintain defense capabilities,

392
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:47,827
we are going to decide who

393
00:22:47,910 --> 00:22:50,834
gets allocated a certain number of GPUs,
certain amount of inference,

394
00:22:50,917 --> 00:22:51,967
a certain number of chips,

395
00:22:52,050 --> 00:22:54,700
a certain number of servers.
Because at the end of the day,

396
00:22:54,783 --> 00:22:56,507
one of the key metrics of cyber defense

397
00:22:56,590 --> 00:23:00,767
is going to be how many machines do you
have allocated to defend your systems

398
00:23:00,850 --> 00:23:04,554
against how many machines are coming
after your systems. And it is, again,

399
00:23:04,638 --> 00:23:05,527
a classic arms race

400
00:23:05,610 --> 00:23:10,862
scenario. Assuming model convergence, and
even if models have slight advantages over

401
00:23:10,945 --> 00:23:11,779
others,

402
00:23:12,170 --> 00:23:14,556
it seems to be the case
that we will maintain pacing.

403
00:23:14,639 --> 00:23:16,239
And if we're maintaining pacing,

404
00:23:16,670 --> 00:23:21,081
then the number of machines allocated to a
specific task is going to be a key measure

405
00:23:21,164 --> 00:23:21,204
of

406
00:23:21,270 --> 00:23:25,245
how well it performs in that task relative
to another set of machines doing the same

407
00:23:25,328 --> 00:23:27,995
task. You're just going to need
to allocate more machines to it.

408
00:23:28,078 --> 00:23:29,127
So if you're going to allocate

409
00:23:29,210 --> 00:23:31,814
more machines to it, you're going to end
up having the government say, wait,

410
00:23:31,897 --> 00:23:32,987
wait, wait, wait, wait.

411
00:23:33,070 --> 00:23:38,350
We need the US financial services system
to get X percent of the GPUs in America.

412
00:23:38,650 --> 00:23:40,648
We need to make sure that Y
percent go to defense.

413
00:23:40,731 --> 00:23:42,327
We need to make sure that Z percent.

414
00:23:42,410 --> 00:23:45,307
You're saying it's all going to get
nationalized and allocated top down.

415
00:23:45,390 --> 00:23:48,067
I think that's where the regulators are
going to end up having to play a role.

416
00:23:48,150 --> 00:23:51,199
You can kind of think about data
centers becoming the utility,

417
00:23:51,282 --> 00:23:53,050
which is the clouds, the neoclouds.

418
00:23:53,490 --> 00:23:55,947
Effectively, the government will
end up saying, wait a second,

419
00:23:56,030 --> 00:23:57,787
we're not allocating enough to JP Morgan.

420
00:23:57,870 --> 00:24:00,920
We're not allocating enough
to the financial services system.

421
00:24:01,190 --> 00:24:03,147
And ultimately, the number
of machines that are being allocated.

422
00:24:03,230 --> 00:24:04,467
[Speaker 2] I would have
my remark to take care of that.

423
00:24:04,550 --> 00:24:06,447
[Speaker 4] Yeah, it's an opportunity
to sell into the government.

424
00:24:06,530 --> 00:24:09,282
Now, Google and Amazon Web
Services, Crusoe, whoever,

425
00:24:09,366 --> 00:24:10,810
can just sell more servers.

426
00:24:10,990 --> 00:24:16,352
And the government then can say, hey,
it is now SAC's national security that we

427
00:24:16,436 --> 00:24:18,067
build more data centers.

428
00:24:18,150 --> 00:24:22,330
and we're going to clear the road
for it based on that alone.

429
00:24:22,790 --> 00:24:23,567
That is inevitable.

430
00:24:23,650 --> 00:24:25,227
[Speaker 2] Yeah, here's
the part that I agree with.

431
00:24:25,310 --> 00:24:26,847
[Speaker 5] Blocking
a data center if we needed,

432
00:24:26,930 --> 00:24:30,167
that would be like blocking tanks
being built during World War II, right?

433
00:24:30,250 --> 00:24:32,327
[Speaker 2] Yeah,
here's the part I agree with.

434
00:24:32,410 --> 00:24:34,247
It's not just about
the capability of the model.

435
00:24:34,330 --> 00:24:36,810
It's about how much
compute you have to run it.

436
00:24:37,050 --> 00:24:40,530
And we want to have more
compute than our adversaries.

437
00:24:40,850 --> 00:24:43,487
And if we continue with this
anti-data center crusade,

438
00:24:43,570 --> 00:24:45,587
we're going to be
at a severe disadvantage.

439
00:24:45,670 --> 00:24:51,136
We already know that the precursor for
data centers is power generation and China

440
00:24:51,220 --> 00:24:56,617
doubling their grid every decade and we
been flat for about 25 years That a huge

441
00:24:56,701 --> 00:25:01,824
problem Now I went back and looked
Throughout the course of the 20th century

442
00:25:01,908 --> 00:25:07,580
the United States was on a pace to double
its electrical grid every decade That what

443
00:25:07,663 --> 00:25:11,232
we did. We actually grew
power generation enormously.

444
00:25:11,316 --> 00:25:14,397
And those were in the
days when America was a

445
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:19,624
great industrial empire and basically
dominated the world in manufacturing

446
00:25:19,707 --> 00:25:21,037
and industry. We did

447
00:25:21,120 --> 00:25:24,601
not have a problem doing this.
We found ways to do it. Obviously,

448
00:25:24,685 --> 00:25:28,604
the power generation plants, the power
plants were being built somewhere,

449
00:25:28,687 --> 00:25:31,417
and they found places
to put them where they didn't

450
00:25:31,500 --> 00:25:34,442
encounter too much NIMBY opposition.
They figured out a way to do it.

451
00:25:34,525 --> 00:25:35,757
Think about that. Every decade

452
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,264
of the 20th century until starting
around the 1970s, when it slowed a bit,

453
00:25:39,347 --> 00:25:40,117
they were doubling

454
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:44,059
the grid every decade. The 70s, it
started slowing, but the growth continued,

455
00:25:44,142 --> 00:25:48,567
and it wasn't until the early 2000s
that basically we flatlined. Why is that?

456
00:25:48,650 --> 00:25:51,457
Because of deindustrialization,
globalization,

457
00:25:51,540 --> 00:25:54,593
we shipped all those
manufacturing jobs overseas,

458
00:25:54,676 --> 00:25:57,537
and then people went
to work in offices, so we

459
00:25:57,620 --> 00:26:01,697
didn't need as much power. Efficiency
played a little bit of a part in it

460
00:26:01,780 --> 00:26:02,837
as well, but we kind

461
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:07,543
of lost that muscle of how do we basically
keep doubling our power grid every decade?

462
00:26:07,626 --> 00:26:08,097
We have to

463
00:26:08,180 --> 00:26:13,864
get that back. And again, this anti-data
center witch hunt that I'm seeing going

464
00:26:13,947 --> 00:26:17,707
on, it's so misguided. Look, data
centers have been around for a long time.

465
00:26:17,791 --> 00:26:19,391
Data centers serve the internet.

466
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,975
They serve all the mobile applications
on your phone. They serve now AI,

467
00:26:24,058 --> 00:26:25,337
but they serve all the

468
00:26:25,420 --> 00:26:31,680
uses of computers that we use. And to
blame them for any specific application,

469
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,597
this seems totally misguided. If you have
concerns about things like surveillance or

470
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,384
privacy, by all means,
strengthen the privacy laws, right?

471
00:26:40,467 --> 00:26:44,980
I'm all in favor of that, but just trying
to ban the data center seems insane.

472
00:26:45,300 --> 00:26:48,537
[Speaker 4] Saks, what everybody wants
to know, you have been pretty critical

473
00:26:48,620 --> 00:26:50,517
of the Anthropic Computer Corporation

474
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,000
and specifically Dario
and the leadership there.

475
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:54,280
He was at the event.

476
00:26:55,100 --> 00:26:57,700
You guys met, I think,
perhaps for the first time.

477
00:26:57,940 --> 00:27:00,457
Tell us about Dario's participation there.

478
00:27:00,540 --> 00:27:05,040
And did you guys talk a little bit
about your criticism of him specifically,

479
00:27:05,220 --> 00:27:08,937
of the organization specifically,
and all of this doomerism

480
00:27:09,020 --> 00:27:11,537
and effective altruism and all this?

481
00:27:11,620 --> 00:27:13,060
or did it not come up?

482
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,577
[Speaker 2] No, I mean, look,
I think that Dario was a good sport.

483
00:27:16,660 --> 00:27:18,097
It's true. That's the first
time I met him in person.

484
00:27:18,180 --> 00:27:19,537
I talked to him on the phone before.

485
00:27:19,620 --> 00:27:22,170
But look, he was a good
sport throughout the event.

486
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,985
It was not adversarial or hostile
Obviously he has his own views and he

487
00:27:26,068 --> 00:27:29,996
represented them But fundamentally
everybody got on the same page and signed

488
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,430
this accord Did you shake hands with Dario
Yeah yeah yeah yeah Yeah he joked He said

489
00:27:34,514 --> 00:27:36,157
oh my nemesis You know, he sort of joked.

490
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,400
Oh, really? Yeah. So it's kind of funny.

491
00:27:38,580 --> 00:27:38,697
Yeah.

492
00:27:38,780 --> 00:27:40,880
[Speaker 4] Did you invite him on the pod?

493
00:27:40,980 --> 00:27:43,037
[Speaker 2] I forgot to invite him
on the pod, but he's welcome anytime.

494
00:27:43,120 --> 00:27:44,357
[Speaker 5] Do you have his phone number?

495
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:45,857
And are you going
to invite him on the pod?

496
00:27:45,940 --> 00:27:46,897
The world wants to know.

497
00:27:46,980 --> 00:27:48,480
[Speaker 2] If you want me to.

498
00:27:48,580 --> 00:27:51,691
But look, I think it's good that he talked
to the president and had dinner with

499
00:27:51,774 --> 00:27:52,317
the president.

500
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,597
I think the president should talk
to all the major players in the space.

501
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,180
He should hear the full spectrum of views.

502
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,940
And I trust the president's going to
arrive at the right policy and solution.

503
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,460
So I think it's good
for him to hear Dario.

504
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,637
[Speaker 5] I mean, look, I think
insight into what happened at that dinner.

505
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,077
[Speaker 4] What was President
Trump's view of Dario?

506
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,697
He said he's an interesting guy.

507
00:28:11,780 --> 00:28:15,153
There were some interesting quotes and he
he dragged him from the back of the group

508
00:28:15,236 --> 00:28:16,897
in the presser and threw him out front.

509
00:28:16,980 --> 00:28:18,177
I saw you were right behind him.

510
00:28:18,260 --> 00:28:19,137
Zuck was right behind him.

511
00:28:19,220 --> 00:28:22,937
You guys had a little chuckle
at the president pushing him forward.

512
00:28:23,020 --> 00:28:26,998
[Speaker 2] to no we weren't we actually i
forgot exactly what no one was making fun

513
00:28:27,081 --> 00:28:27,917
of dario just no no

514
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,177
[Speaker 4] i wasn't implying that yeah
there were side conversations going

515
00:28:31,260 --> 00:28:32,177
on grabbed him from the

516
00:28:32,260 --> 00:28:36,282
back and said you have to speak i think
that was kind of a acute moment it was

517
00:28:36,365 --> 00:28:37,177
an affectionate i

518
00:28:37,260 --> 00:28:41,139
saw it as an affectionate moment that he
wanted dario to be part of the group

519
00:28:41,222 --> 00:28:42,117
and speak on behalf

520
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,254
[Speaker 2] of the group i saw it as
the opposite yeah yeah he gave him a pat

521
00:28:45,338 --> 00:28:46,477
on the back exactly and look i

522
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,345
think listen dario is a very special
person i didn't you know fully appreciate

523
00:28:51,429 --> 00:28:52,157
it till we're

524
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,982
all in that room together there's
obviously a wide spectrum of views in

525
00:28:57,065 --> 00:28:58,817
that room there's different

526
00:28:58,900 --> 00:29:04,106
levels of a good word yeah there's there's
an autism spectrum there's a there's

527
00:29:04,190 --> 00:29:04,977
a spectrum of

528
00:29:05,060 --> 00:29:08,308
[Speaker 6] autism spectrum in that room
you felt you felt very comfortable sacks

529
00:29:08,392 --> 00:29:09,337
well i mean you guys call

530
00:29:09,420 --> 00:29:14,330
[Speaker 2] me the rain man but um i mean
you're a rain man light yeah you're pretty

531
00:29:14,413 --> 00:29:15,697
functional i don't mean

532
00:29:15,780 --> 00:29:19,085
this as an insult but you know daria
is sort of the dustin hoffman in that room

533
00:29:19,168 --> 00:29:19,857
and then tom brown

534
00:29:19,940 --> 00:29:23,180
like the tom cruise character who's trying
to like translate they weren't wearing

535
00:29:23,264 --> 00:29:23,837
the same suit or

536
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:28,513
[Speaker 4] anything but um hey america
china russia meet my mutants okay i'm

537
00:29:28,597 --> 00:29:30,457
forming like the x-men here okay

538
00:29:30,540 --> 00:29:34,398
these are brainiacs they're a little bit
weird on the margins but they're getting

539
00:29:34,481 --> 00:29:35,177
done for america

540
00:29:35,260 --> 00:29:41,722
you certainly uh must have had an uh
an interesting uh a time there tell us

541
00:29:41,805 --> 00:29:43,817
a little bit more of the

542
00:29:43,900 --> 00:29:49,021
palace entry what was president trump's
vibe he seemed he was incredibly engaged

543
00:29:49,104 --> 00:29:49,737
and excited

544
00:29:49,820 --> 00:29:54,426
And I just want to say, listen, you don't
have to be a fan of President Trump or

545
00:29:54,509 --> 00:29:59,291
a Republican to appreciate what happened
here and compare it to when Biden excluded

546
00:29:59,374 --> 00:30:01,160
Elon from. from the EV summit.

547
00:30:01,410 --> 00:30:03,988
You need to, as the president
of the United States,

548
00:30:04,071 --> 00:30:06,702
be bipartisan and include
everybody in these things.

549
00:30:06,785 --> 00:30:09,728
We're all part of the same team.
It's called Team America.

550
00:30:09,812 --> 00:30:12,494
And I thought this was a great
juxtaposition of that.

551
00:30:12,578 --> 00:30:13,777
You had a lot of people.

552
00:30:13,860 --> 00:30:17,060
who are extremely critical
of the administration who were there,

553
00:30:17,190 --> 00:30:20,689
[Speaker 3] to make America stronger,
to make America win the AI race,

554
00:30:20,773 --> 00:30:24,221
the superintelligence race.
Most people have said this at this point.

555
00:30:24,304 --> 00:30:28,469
So this is sort of beating a dead horse.
But he's a generational political athlete.

556
00:30:28,552 --> 00:30:31,028
I mean, I don't think
we've seen anybody like him.

557
00:30:31,111 --> 00:30:34,867
And so he's extremely comfortable
around all kinds of people with all kinds

558
00:30:34,950 --> 00:30:37,067
of differing views.
And he's conscientious.

559
00:30:37,151 --> 00:30:40,343
And so when he notices things
are not right, he sets them right.

560
00:30:40,426 --> 00:30:43,190
He talks to as many people.
And I think you have to be

561
00:30:43,590 --> 00:30:45,650
really impressed with that. This is a

562
00:30:46,260 --> 00:30:48,940
an incredible pattern that I hope

563
00:30:49,140 --> 00:30:53,918
outlives him, which is this idea that when
you have very complicated problems,

564
00:30:54,001 --> 00:30:56,090
when you Use industry.com.

565
00:30:56,610 --> 00:31:00,446
to be a sounding board, and then
you sit with industry in real time,

566
00:31:00,530 --> 00:31:03,098
and then you craft these
accords in real time.

567
00:31:03,181 --> 00:31:06,870
And when that industry represents
the entire political spectrum,

568
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,172
As you said Jason, some who are with you
and some who are against you and some who

569
00:31:10,256 --> 00:31:11,156
are in the middle.

570
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,297
That is the right way
to govern, in my opinion,

571
00:31:14,380 --> 00:31:18,605
because you have the best chance of doing
something that's sustainable and that's

572
00:31:18,688 --> 00:31:21,937
realistic. And that comes back to this...

573
00:31:22,020 --> 00:31:25,670
point that is getting lost, which
is whoever wins superintelligence wins.

574
00:31:26,310 --> 00:31:30,787
And I think if we just keep that in mind,
this is the pattern that hopefully

575
00:31:30,870 --> 00:31:31,703
outlives the

576
00:31:32,430 --> 00:31:35,599
the president, which is that whenever
you run into any other thorny issue,

577
00:31:35,682 --> 00:31:39,832
and I would say this to whoever's going to
be president in 28 and beyond, Democrat.

578
00:31:40,170 --> 00:31:42,010
Republican, it doesn't matter.

579
00:31:42,810 --> 00:31:45,810
Get the smartest people
from that industry in a room.

580
00:31:46,500 --> 00:31:50,114
Make sure that that's filled with both
people that support you as well as may not

581
00:31:50,198 --> 00:31:52,837
necessarily support you
and then hash it out in the room.

582
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,100
and forced

583
00:31:54,810 --> 00:31:58,825
a set of realistic principles that
everybody can then build a business

584
00:31:58,908 --> 00:32:02,020
around. That is very smart
Politics and Governance.

585
00:32:02,940 --> 00:32:04,754
I just wanted to go back
to something you said before,

586
00:32:04,837 --> 00:32:07,327
because I was having this
conversation with Phil Deutsch.

587
00:32:07,410 --> 00:32:09,210
This is about the data center thing.

588
00:32:10,050 --> 00:32:12,397
He made this point to me,
which I think is really important.

589
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,420
When you look at the impact...

590
00:32:14,730 --> 00:32:19,240
that, The... Iran war
had on the price of oil.

591
00:32:19,890 --> 00:32:23,210
The most interesting takeaway
was actually how little...

592
00:32:24,210 --> 00:32:26,710
The price of oil moved significantly.

593
00:32:27,870 --> 00:32:30,110
during all of these
blockages in our moods.

594
00:32:30,660 --> 00:32:34,932
Because what really happened was there was
a lot of supply and generation shifting

595
00:32:35,015 --> 00:32:38,331
that occurred, right?
We were able to shape in real time, Jason,

596
00:32:38,414 --> 00:32:42,208
how to generate energy. And the real
takeaway from my perspective is that

597
00:32:42,291 --> 00:32:45,341
the generation of electrons
is actually the critical thing,

598
00:32:45,424 --> 00:32:49,620
not necessarily the generation of energy
as we've classically thought about it.

599
00:32:50,130 --> 00:32:53,450
Now, why that's important
is the data center now becomes the...

600
00:32:54,030 --> 00:32:56,050
critical symbol of national security.

601
00:32:56,670 --> 00:32:58,970
Because the ability
to generate electrons...

602
00:32:59,340 --> 00:33:01,990
and then the ability to make
sure that we can compute

603
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,825
the resources that we need to run
our economy is going to start from those

604
00:33:05,908 --> 00:33:09,550
things. And so domestic
energy production, I think...

605
00:33:09,750 --> 00:33:14,172
also is this hugely important thing that
is going to move from a domestic policy

606
00:33:14,255 --> 00:33:18,678
issue to a national security issue. And
that's why I think the data center thing

607
00:33:18,761 --> 00:33:21,070
and sort of why I disagree with Freebergs

608
00:33:21,300 --> 00:33:24,429
I understand where he's coming from
because this is why the data center will

609
00:33:24,512 --> 00:33:27,901
get so much scrutiny. But I also
think the opposite will happen,

610
00:33:27,984 --> 00:33:31,927
which is more of the Sachs idea of the
free market, because it is so critical.

611
00:33:32,010 --> 00:33:35,904
Similar to how we responded after
the Persian Gulf War and how we responded

612
00:33:35,987 --> 00:33:38,396
after the global war
on terror, what did we do?

613
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:42,586
We doubled and tripled down on that gas
and domestic oil production. Similarly,

614
00:33:42,669 --> 00:33:46,404
I think the domestic production
of electrons becomes so critical because

615
00:33:46,488 --> 00:33:50,116
the data center becomes this natural
security infrastructure that's so

616
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:50,737
important.

617
00:33:50,820 --> 00:33:52,720
[Speaker 1] Yeah, there was this great

618
00:33:54,150 --> 00:33:56,470
video from years ago,

619
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:01,111
where Milton Friedman was at a law school
and he was asked a question by this kid

620
00:34:01,194 --> 00:34:04,786
about when do we have a responsibility
to act to save someone's life?

621
00:34:04,869 --> 00:34:07,236
And can the government
mandate that I do that?

622
00:34:07,319 --> 00:34:10,218
And doesn't that take away
my freedom in a free society?

623
00:34:10,302 --> 00:34:14,000
And the way the kid asked it,
Milton Friedman responded by saying, hey,

624
00:34:14,083 --> 00:34:17,249
you started out talking about
your responsibility in society.

625
00:34:17,332 --> 00:34:21,380
And by the end of it, you were telling
me about what government needs to do.

626
00:34:21,750 --> 00:34:25,150
And he's like, I would argue that
those two things are not the same.

627
00:34:25,290 --> 00:34:27,390
And that the point you should take note of

628
00:34:27,510 --> 00:34:32,453
is that you don't need government to solve
your problems when society is giving you

629
00:34:32,537 --> 00:34:35,966
a clear signal of what the right
and wrong thing is to do.

630
00:34:36,049 --> 00:34:38,290
That people collectively can and will

631
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,200
solve their problems,
take their actions, choose the right path,

632
00:34:42,283 --> 00:34:46,340
do the right things, and businesses
can and will respond accordingly,

633
00:34:46,950 --> 00:34:48,814
When the market is telling them something,

634
00:34:48,897 --> 00:34:52,117
when society is telling them something,
they don't need anything.

635
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:57,317
the government to be responsible
for executing the actions and taking

636
00:34:57,401 --> 00:35:00,340
regulation onto its shoulders for them.

637
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,040
And I think we saw that this
week with NVIDIA's launch.

638
00:35:03,124 --> 00:35:06,757
And OpenAI was very declarative about how
they're being more precautionary before

639
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:10,240
they release models. But this morning,
Google also launched SynthID.

640
00:35:10,470 --> 00:35:14,483
And SynthID is a system for watermarking
proteins that are produced with AI.

641
00:35:14,566 --> 00:35:18,687
So the sequence, the DNA sequence that
codes for the protein will actually now

642
00:35:18,770 --> 00:35:23,072
have a watermark in it. and it's being
broadly adopted. And the protein itself,

643
00:35:23,155 --> 00:35:26,676
the three-dimensional construct of the
protein will actually have an embedded

644
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:30,469
watermark in it as well. This is actually
a pretty amazing technology that Google

645
00:35:30,552 --> 00:35:34,340
developed. for creating
watermarking and defense systems in

646
00:35:34,710 --> 00:35:40,250
AI bio. And I think we are starting
to see the market respond actively to,

647
00:35:40,890 --> 00:35:47,400
to what society is saying, and not need
to, these government people to come in,

648
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:48,473
and take over.

649
00:35:49,020 --> 00:35:50,977
[Speaker 3] And in the process,
put everything at risk.

650
00:35:51,060 --> 00:35:53,811
[Speaker 1] By the way, I saw that clip.
It was going viral as well.

651
00:35:53,895 --> 00:35:56,854
I thought that it was the young guy.
I don't know why I watched it. Yeah,

652
00:35:56,938 --> 00:35:59,106
he was a law school kid.
The young guy was articulate.

653
00:35:59,189 --> 00:36:01,867
Milton Friedman was unbelievably
articulate as always.

654
00:36:01,950 --> 00:36:05,317
[Speaker 3] But Jake, what was your view?
I'm curious, what's your view...

655
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,347
Just seeing it happen real time,
what were you thinking?

656
00:36:08,430 --> 00:36:10,600
[Speaker 4] Yeah, well, I was actually...

657
00:36:11,310 --> 00:36:14,688
Ironically invited to come down
to the White House for the first time,

658
00:36:14,771 --> 00:36:17,621
my friend Joe Jebbia,
who launched America.gov this week.

659
00:36:18,270 --> 00:36:21,610
which was a spectacular launch.
We were making the American...

660
00:36:21,870 --> 00:36:24,752
government as efficient
as private industry.

661
00:36:24,836 --> 00:36:28,459
He's the co-founder of Airbnb
and an incredible design.

662
00:36:28,543 --> 00:36:32,773
He went to RISD with his partners.
And so just shout out to him.

663
00:36:32,856 --> 00:36:36,817
If you haven't seen America.gov,
it's stunning and gorgeous.

664
00:36:36,901 --> 00:36:38,990
I spoke on a panel with Brooke.

665
00:36:39,270 --> 00:36:42,757
[Speaker 1] Rollins and Sean Sankar
at the event. It was an incredible event.

666
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,399
The whole cabinet showed up.
The president signed the EO.

667
00:36:45,483 --> 00:36:49,248
And even guys like Andrew Ross Sorkin gave
this standing monologue on why it was so

668
00:36:49,331 --> 00:36:52,168
incredible for America to see this.
It was not partisan at all.

669
00:36:52,252 --> 00:36:55,553
It was just upgrade America's technology
infrastructure for the citizens.

670
00:36:55,636 --> 00:36:57,918
And it was fantastic.
And by the way, sorry, Jacob,

671
00:36:58,001 --> 00:37:01,897
I'm sorry to interrupt you, but I just
want to give a shout out to Joe because –

672
00:37:01,980 --> 00:37:06,117
He did that work with his own money.
People think that this was like some big

673
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,160
government investment.
Joe was not aware of that. Wow.

674
00:37:09,420 --> 00:37:12,974
Joe and others put up personal funds
and gave up their personal time,

675
00:37:13,057 --> 00:37:15,452
despite their success
in their private careers,

676
00:37:15,535 --> 00:37:19,563
to step in and do this work for America.
And I just think it was an incredible

677
00:37:19,647 --> 00:37:23,253
rally and cry for all of these
technologists to get together and build

678
00:37:23,337 --> 00:37:27,049
something great together for America.
And it was a really beautiful day.

679
00:37:27,132 --> 00:37:28,367
It was great to be there.

680
00:37:28,450 --> 00:37:31,813
[Speaker 4] Sorry, go ahead. No,
no, it's fine. From the outside,

681
00:37:31,896 --> 00:37:35,789
it was incredible. It's just awesome
to see the power of all these American

682
00:37:35,872 --> 00:37:39,000
industry together. Not a critique,
but an end to add to it.

683
00:37:39,420 --> 00:37:42,170
I think the next piece
of this puzzle is to start to...

684
00:37:42,330 --> 00:37:46,104
include Americans in this,
the bottom half of the K-shaped recovery.

685
00:37:46,187 --> 00:37:50,472
Where's the teacher? Where's the teenager
going into college and all of this?

686
00:37:50,555 --> 00:37:53,989
Where's the American tool belt
worker, the plumber, et cetera?

687
00:37:54,072 --> 00:37:58,640
It looks from the outside, I think, to a
lot of Americans that this is still a bit

688
00:37:58,723 --> 00:38:02,070
scary. So there's more work
to do there. I was on a flight.

689
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,548
Delta and the flight
attendants asked me what I did.

690
00:38:04,632 --> 00:38:07,638
And I was talking to them and they said,
I'm so scared of this AI stuff.

691
00:38:07,721 --> 00:38:10,728
I'm so glad I'm retiring because I
don't want to lose my job, et cetera.

692
00:38:10,811 --> 00:38:12,831
Americans are still
petrified of this technology.

693
00:38:12,914 --> 00:38:16,092
They still think they're losing their
jobs. They still think it's dangerous.

694
00:38:16,176 --> 00:38:19,777
So I thought this was like a great first
step, but there's more work to do to

695
00:38:19,860 --> 00:38:22,466
pull Americans back off
that ledge. And we need to,

696
00:38:22,549 --> 00:38:26,737
and I think this is where the president
or the next president could have a really

697
00:38:26,820 --> 00:38:29,140
major impact,
is to start forcing Americans.

698
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,664
American companies, not just thinking
about how they make more money,

699
00:38:32,747 --> 00:38:35,377
how they get more green
lights for their data centers,

700
00:38:35,460 --> 00:38:37,940
how they get less regulation
and more free markets.

701
00:38:38,023 --> 00:38:41,859
But how does this impact education?
How does this lower the cost of education?

702
00:38:41,942 --> 00:38:43,500
How does this build more homes?

703
00:38:43,860 --> 00:38:47,941
How does this help health care? How did
people get more health care, you know,

704
00:38:48,024 --> 00:38:50,343
at a lower price?
None of that was addressed.

705
00:38:50,427 --> 00:38:53,386
That doesn't mean I'm giving
any criticism of this event,

706
00:38:53,470 --> 00:38:57,764
but that's the next piece. The next time
President Trump brings together this many

707
00:38:57,848 --> 00:39:00,968
powerful people, they should
talk about the American public,

708
00:39:01,051 --> 00:39:03,584
not just the data centers.
So a couple of things.

709
00:39:03,667 --> 00:39:07,908
He did ask for people to do just that and
actually showcase some of these things.

710
00:39:07,991 --> 00:39:10,020
And he was very specific. He did that.

711
00:39:13,860 --> 00:39:16,900
[Speaker 3] He was very direct.
That was super blunt.

712
00:39:16,983 --> 00:39:19,340
And one of the first few things he said.

713
00:39:19,530 --> 00:39:22,374
[Speaker 4] I wanted to build
on your other thing. By the way,

714
00:39:22,457 --> 00:39:26,103
that did not come across at all. The real
critique from the public that I think

715
00:39:26,187 --> 00:39:30,034
is valid here is it looks like, We're
just helping billionaires and companies.

716
00:39:30,118 --> 00:39:33,795
I want to talk to you about the junior.
That is something the billionaires and

717
00:39:33,878 --> 00:39:36,543
the companies, I don't mean
to sound like Bernie Sanders,

718
00:39:36,626 --> 00:39:40,351
they need to address this themselves.
It would be great if they started saying,

719
00:39:40,435 --> 00:39:43,485
like Facebook did with the free
tool belt stuff and the training,

720
00:39:43,568 --> 00:39:46,378
we need to see more of that.
And I think housing, education,

721
00:39:46,461 --> 00:39:49,270
healthcare is where Americans
will start to appreciate this.

722
00:39:49,354 --> 00:39:50,854
I told you that right after...

723
00:39:52,140 --> 00:39:55,490
[Speaker 3] the White House luncheon,
I flew to Orlando because the

724
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,980
Earth Young has a two-day off-site for all
their partners. Okay, but listen to this.

725
00:40:00,790 --> 00:40:04,143
I'm not going to say this person's name,
but this person is a very well-known

726
00:40:04,226 --> 00:40:06,426
Democratic person.
They were on stage and...

727
00:40:06,730 --> 00:40:08,830
They have this whole riff about Doomerism.

728
00:40:09,340 --> 00:40:12,551
And they're so cavalier about it. They
actually included the people in the room

729
00:40:12,634 --> 00:40:15,707
as part of the claim that they're
all going to be out of jobs.

730
00:40:15,790 --> 00:40:19,760
And I'm standing there backstage
and I'm like, What are you talking about?

731
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,370
Hmm. It's not rooted in details.
It's not rooted in data.

732
00:40:23,453 --> 00:40:26,329
It's not rooted in fact.
This is a very well-known person,

733
00:40:26,412 --> 00:40:29,320
very grounded theoretically
in what the data should show.

734
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:30,633
Shaman name.

735
00:40:31,300 --> 00:40:35,598
But what you realize, well, I mean,
I'll say to you, but maybe we bloop it up.

736
00:40:35,681 --> 00:40:39,585
And I was like, what the what is going on?
And so to your point, Jason,

737
00:40:39,669 --> 00:40:42,843
it is very partisan.
And I said this last time on the pod.

738
00:40:42,926 --> 00:40:44,780
There is an incredibly important.

739
00:40:44,980 --> 00:40:49,605
Incentive. For folks that are not in the
power structure today, i.e. Democrats,

740
00:40:49,688 --> 00:40:50,638
I'm not going to be

741
00:40:51,820 --> 00:40:56,697
to take up the Doomerism call to action,
because it is a very straightforward way

742
00:40:56,780 --> 00:41:00,240
to whip up fear, and to then
catalyze that to power.

743
00:41:00,610 --> 00:41:04,499
in the midterms and then in 28.
So you're going to win you votes for sure.

744
00:41:04,583 --> 00:41:09,050
When I went on stage, the first thing
I did was I was like, She's wrong.

745
00:41:09,940 --> 00:41:13,487
And that's not true.
And in fact, everything tells us

746
00:41:13,570 --> 00:41:17,910
all the data up until now, that there
will be more jobs and more to do.

747
00:41:17,993 --> 00:41:23,081
And I said the people in this room will be
making more money in the next four years

748
00:41:23,164 --> 00:41:27,255
and five years than less money.
There will be more work to be done,

749
00:41:27,338 --> 00:41:29,830
more judgment, more taste to be imposed.

750
00:41:30,430 --> 00:41:31,263
And so,

751
00:41:31,510 --> 00:41:34,970
I have a real issue with this narrative
because I think it's just fundamentally

752
00:41:35,053 --> 00:41:37,705
wrong. And it does not come
from a place of data-driven fact.

753
00:41:37,789 --> 00:41:39,039
It comes from a decision.

754
00:41:39,310 --> 00:41:43,870
But the political calculus
is the dumerism is a way to foment

755
00:41:44,530 --> 00:41:47,090
distrust and displeasure

756
00:41:47,590 --> 00:41:51,333
and then to use that at the polls. And I
understand that as a political tactic,

757
00:41:51,416 --> 00:41:53,516
but I think it's important to call it out.

758
00:41:53,620 --> 00:41:56,293
[Speaker 1] This is why I say
we're in the AI wars. I mean,

759
00:41:56,376 --> 00:41:58,675
this is the actual war.
There won't be a robot war.

760
00:41:58,759 --> 00:42:02,226
It's this battle right now about who's
actually going to have the technology

761
00:42:02,309 --> 00:42:05,729
and the progress and who's not. Well,
who's going to benefit from Freeberg?

762
00:42:05,813 --> 00:42:08,813
Who's going to benefit from it,
right? Rich people or poor people,

763
00:42:08,896 --> 00:42:11,242
middle class? People don't
know what open source is.

764
00:42:11,325 --> 00:42:13,344
No one knows what
an open-weight model means.

765
00:42:13,427 --> 00:42:16,941
No one understands any of this stuff,
and they're looking at the rich guys at

766
00:42:17,024 --> 00:42:19,217
the White House.
And I agree with you, J. Calh.

767
00:42:19,300 --> 00:42:23,167
I think the public perception and the
public narrative on this thing is I don't

768
00:42:23,250 --> 00:42:23,627
get it.

769
00:42:23,710 --> 00:42:27,605
I see a bunch of wealthy people kind of
hanging out with the president at lunch,

770
00:42:27,688 --> 00:42:30,638
making a bunch of decisions
that I don't have a voice around.

771
00:42:30,721 --> 00:42:34,218
I don't even know what's going on.
I don't even know what they're doing.

772
00:42:34,301 --> 00:42:36,505
And then I turn on the news.
I turn on the TV.

773
00:42:36,588 --> 00:42:39,888
I look at my Instagram and everything's
about the end of tomorrow.

774
00:42:40,540 --> 00:42:42,866
And so I'm all about
shutting it down. No problem.

775
00:42:42,949 --> 00:42:44,849
This is why I think it's important to,

776
00:42:45,220 --> 00:42:49,748
to have the conversation that we're having
about why does open source and open weight

777
00:42:49,831 --> 00:42:53,779
AI benefit everyone because there's
no company that's charging you a toll

778
00:42:53,862 --> 00:42:57,860
for this digital technology. It's just
like the internet. We maintained...

779
00:42:58,330 --> 00:43:01,978
an open internet it was a huge fight
people forget the fight that we had

780
00:43:02,061 --> 00:43:02,894
for the internet

781
00:43:03,340 --> 00:43:06,828
When the Internet was first starting out,
there were all these efforts to privatize

782
00:43:06,911 --> 00:43:08,711
the Internet, to create gatekeepers.

783
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,516
There were these efforts by all the telcos
that they were going to be the gatekeeper

784
00:43:12,599 --> 00:43:15,227
to the internet and charge
you different amounts of money.

785
00:43:15,310 --> 00:43:19,429
to access different websites. You weren't
going to be able to just go to Yahoo

786
00:43:19,512 --> 00:43:21,290
or AOL if you didn't pay a fee to

787
00:43:21,490 --> 00:43:25,750
to your telco to be allowed to access
Yahoo or AOL, and we made it illegal.

788
00:43:26,140 --> 00:43:30,220
And we made it an open internet. And I
think the same is happening right now

789
00:43:30,303 --> 00:43:33,562
with AI. People don't see the fight,
the war that's going on.

790
00:43:33,645 --> 00:43:36,739
But there is a contingent
of people that to Chema's point,

791
00:43:36,823 --> 00:43:40,245
recognize the political value
of regulatory control and capture.

792
00:43:40,329 --> 00:43:44,080
And they are fighting to create
gates and to create systems of control

793
00:43:44,163 --> 00:43:48,244
and ultimately new power structures.
This is where you solve the whole bomb.

794
00:43:48,327 --> 00:43:52,600
And we are fighting. The other side
is actually fighting for openness with AI.

795
00:43:56,140 --> 00:44:00,137
[Speaker 3] realize that these extremely
successful people are being deployed to

796
00:44:00,220 --> 00:44:04,963
with very tightly scripted talking
points that all point to doomerism,

797
00:44:05,046 --> 00:44:08,080
you realize that this
is extremely designed.

798
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:13,907
And then the rest of us who are working in
this arena and actually can see that there

799
00:44:13,990 --> 00:44:18,506
are more positive benefits than negative
and that there are more people making more

800
00:44:18,589 --> 00:44:21,360
money than before up
and down the income spectrum.

801
00:44:21,490 --> 00:44:23,570
We are not as organized as they are.

802
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,347
That's what I will say for sure.
And I think that the positive message

803
00:44:27,431 --> 00:44:29,920
of superintelligence
and the economic upside is,

804
00:44:30,100 --> 00:44:33,348
is not nearly as well trafficked
as the downside doomer message,

805
00:44:33,432 --> 00:44:37,461
because that goes from top to bottom
in an extremely organized, repetitive way.

806
00:44:37,544 --> 00:44:40,897
And that's why Jason, the flight
attendant, has the talking point.

807
00:44:40,980 --> 00:44:43,256
[Speaker 4] So they are
winning. And by the way,

808
00:44:43,339 --> 00:44:45,468
the talking point
was given to them by Dario.

809
00:44:45,551 --> 00:44:48,269
The talking point was given
to them by Elon when he said,

810
00:44:48,352 --> 00:44:52,054
you're not going to need to have a job.
Those talking points were handed out.

811
00:44:52,137 --> 00:44:55,445
Now they're being reversed.
Still work to be done. I think next time,

812
00:44:55,528 --> 00:44:57,778
best piece of advice,
save three seats, Saks.

813
00:44:58,240 --> 00:45:01,774
bring a Salcon, bring somebody
representing like teachers,

814
00:45:01,857 --> 00:45:05,889
bring somebody representing healthcare,
bring somebody thoughtful,

815
00:45:05,973 --> 00:45:09,606
non-business person, who could
represent other constituents in this.

816
00:45:09,689 --> 00:45:12,084
Save a seat at the table
for people who, you know,

817
00:45:12,167 --> 00:45:15,553
the every man and woman of America
can relate to, who says, hey, yeah,

818
00:45:15,637 --> 00:45:19,320
maybe this will help my kid, you know,
when I get a personal tutor for them.

819
00:45:19,403 --> 00:45:22,591
Like, Sal Khan would be the perfect
example at Khan Academy. Zach,

820
00:45:22,674 --> 00:45:24,177
you got any final thoughts here?

821
00:45:24,260 --> 00:45:27,779
[Speaker 2] Well, I mean, I kind of wanted
to broaden out this conversation to

822
00:45:27,863 --> 00:45:31,567
the economy as a whole, because I do think
that the dumerism is affecting people's

823
00:45:31,650 --> 00:45:34,800
perception of the economy.
Yeah, that's why I'm bringing it up.

824
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,831
in a tremendous amount of economic data
in just last week or two showing that

825
00:45:40,914 --> 00:45:43,997
the economy is much stronger than
people are giving it credit for.

826
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,752
I mean, yes, I know that diesel
prices are too high and rates are high,

827
00:45:47,836 --> 00:45:51,032
but those are the only two
variables that you ever hear about.

828
00:45:51,115 --> 00:45:55,211
Let's look at some of the other numbers
that have just come out because I think

829
00:45:55,294 --> 00:45:57,040
it's pretty extraordinary. Right.

830
00:45:57,220 --> 00:46:02,720
So first of all, Q2 GDP
was revised up to 2.2%.

831
00:46:03,460 --> 00:46:07,754
Up from 1.5 percent. So that's
basically a 50 percent increase.

832
00:46:07,838 --> 00:46:12,897
Economists had expected no revision.
Q1 was also revised up to 2.5 percent

833
00:46:12,980 --> 00:46:16,440
from 2.1 percent.
And if you look at the Q3 growth,

834
00:46:16,524 --> 00:46:22,277
it's tracking well above that. The Atlanta
Fed GDP now is showing around 3.7 percent

835
00:46:22,361 --> 00:46:23,820
as of late last week.

836
00:46:24,430 --> 00:46:29,830
August payrolls just came out, plus
162,000. The consensus was only 55,000,

837
00:46:29,913 --> 00:46:31,010
so it's a beat.

838
00:46:31,180 --> 00:46:36,698
of about 107,000 jobs. June and July
were also revised up by a combined 55,000.

839
00:46:36,782 --> 00:46:40,244
So unemployment is still
near record lows at 4.1%,

840
00:46:40,327 --> 00:46:44,300
even though labor
participation rose Point two.

841
00:46:44,620 --> 00:46:47,993
percent to 61.6 percent.
So good news on the jobs front,

842
00:46:48,077 --> 00:46:51,389
good news on the GDP front.
The economy is running hot.

843
00:46:51,472 --> 00:46:54,620
And then there is also
some good news on inflation.

844
00:46:54,970 --> 00:46:59,150
We saw that core PCE just came in at 3.0%.

845
00:46:59,260 --> 00:47:05,000
versus 3.3% expected. So inflation is
still a bit too high, but actually it is

846
00:47:05,470 --> 00:47:10,014
cooling and beating expectations. And then
finally, you look at manufacturing,

847
00:47:10,098 --> 00:47:12,527
we're seeing a huge wave of re-reporting.

848
00:47:12,610 --> 00:47:17,404
industrialization in this country. A
couple of the measures are the Chicago PMI

849
00:47:17,488 --> 00:47:22,529
and then ISM manufacturing. They both are
well into expansion territory and beating

850
00:47:22,612 --> 00:47:27,490
forecasts. Just one last point. Let's
talk about poverty for a second, because-

851
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:32,020
I want to address the idea that
this is just a K-shaped recovery.

852
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:38,877
So if you look at U.S. household
income, it's now at record high.

853
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:43,895
The median household income
in 2025 is almost $90,000.

854
00:47:43,978 --> 00:47:50,678
And after-tax household income
is growing again in the second Trump term.

855
00:47:50,761 --> 00:47:56,532
It's averaged 3.1% a year in Trump 47.
It was 3.9% in Trump 45,

856
00:47:56,616 --> 00:48:00,370
and it was minus 3.9%. 1.2% in...

857
00:48:00,790 --> 00:48:05,593
Biden's term as a four-year average.
So we're seeing that after-tax household

858
00:48:05,677 --> 00:48:11,980
incomes have risen by 3.1%. just in 2025,
and the poverty rate in the U.S.,

859
00:48:12,550 --> 00:48:18,295
has fallen to its lowest level in history,
10.2%. So, you know, the poverty rate,

860
00:48:18,378 --> 00:48:22,252
the child poverty rate,
these are all at historic lows.

861
00:48:22,336 --> 00:48:27,377
The average household's real income
is After inflation, after taxes,

862
00:48:27,460 --> 00:48:29,956
is increasing for the first time in years.

863
00:48:30,039 --> 00:48:34,460
So there is a lot of strong economic
data out there, and I think that...

864
00:48:34,630 --> 00:48:38,562
This is why, if I was to guess, I actually
think that the Republicans are going to do

865
00:48:38,645 --> 00:48:41,538
better in the midterms than some
of these polls are predicting,

866
00:48:41,621 --> 00:48:44,750
because I think the press around
the economy has been very negative.

867
00:48:44,834 --> 00:48:48,199
But I think people are starting to feel
that the economy is accelerating.

868
00:48:48,282 --> 00:48:51,789
And that was actually a headline in
the Wall Street Journal just last couple

869
00:48:51,872 --> 00:48:54,718
of days that the economy
is accelerating right now. So, again,

870
00:48:54,801 --> 00:48:57,351
you've got this AI boom
or SI boom. You've got the.

871
00:48:57,550 --> 00:49:01,705
The infrastructure build out that, again,
the Wall Street Journal said is bigger

872
00:49:01,788 --> 00:49:03,430
than the railroads, the canals.

873
00:49:03,550 --> 00:49:07,859
and the electric grid combined. And all
these things are basically fueling strong

874
00:49:07,942 --> 00:49:12,034
growth in the economy. And again, I
would just dispute the K-shaped narrative

875
00:49:12,118 --> 00:49:16,510
because the poor are benefiting and the
average household are benefiting as well.

876
00:49:17,050 --> 00:49:19,787
They don't feel that way, but I guess...

877
00:49:19,870 --> 00:49:23,147
[Speaker 4] I get the sentiment.
I agree with you. The sentiment...

878
00:49:23,230 --> 00:49:27,057
[Speaker 2] has not caught up with the
economic reality, but I think it will.

879
00:49:27,140 --> 00:49:30,430
[Speaker 1] We've got
a rate problem in the last...

880
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:35,978
30 days or so, right, we've seen short
term rates on treasuries climb by 60 basis

881
00:49:36,062 --> 00:49:38,858
points. That's a pretty
consequential climb.

882
00:49:38,942 --> 00:49:43,964
I think we haven't seen a short term
yield this high since going back to 2002.

883
00:49:44,047 --> 00:49:49,397
And so this massive increase in rates is
obviously going to impact people's ability

884
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:52,307
to refinance their home,
buy a new car, and,

885
00:49:52,390 --> 00:49:56,276
purchase things on credit. And that's
the majority of Americans fall under

886
00:49:56,359 --> 00:49:57,192
that umbrella.

887
00:49:57,340 --> 00:49:59,937
And I think there's also kind
of an economic challenge ahead with the

888
00:50:00,020 --> 00:50:02,212
rate problem.
And I would argue, as I always do,

889
00:50:02,296 --> 00:50:05,768
that the rate problem is fundamentally
rooted in the federal government and

890
00:50:05,852 --> 00:50:06,852
the insane spending.

891
00:50:07,910 --> 00:50:12,072
And if you look at the impact that
this rate is going to have on banks,

892
00:50:12,156 --> 00:50:13,770
I worked with ChatGPT in my

893
00:50:14,210 --> 00:50:17,210
my trusted analyst, my financial
analyst in my office here,

894
00:50:17,900 --> 00:50:20,872
to help kind of figure out what's the
impact of these rates actually going to be

895
00:50:20,956 --> 00:50:22,767
on banks and what the impairment would be.

896
00:50:22,850 --> 00:50:25,470
There's 4,295 banks.

897
00:50:26,210 --> 00:50:29,870
that have positive equity that report
FDIC their balance sheets every month.

898
00:50:29,953 --> 00:50:32,853
Based on the actual reported
balance sheet of these banks,

899
00:50:33,950 --> 00:50:37,417
About 95 banks are going to see
an impairment of more than 20% of

900
00:50:37,500 --> 00:50:38,333
their equity.

901
00:50:38,810 --> 00:50:43,990
in the last 30 days or so. And those
reports start to come out on October 30th.

902
00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:46,613
So the thing I worry a lot
about is on October 30th,

903
00:50:46,697 --> 00:50:50,109
we're going to kind of see all these
financial reports coming out from all

904
00:50:50,193 --> 00:50:53,795
the banks, all the lending institutions.
And there's about 95 of them that are

905
00:50:53,878 --> 00:50:57,338
going to say, hey, we've got more than
20% impairment charge on our equity.

906
00:50:57,421 --> 00:50:59,369
That's going to be
a massive kind of shock.

907
00:50:59,453 --> 00:51:01,401
And then what are
the implications of that?

908
00:51:01,484 --> 00:51:05,275
And that's where we're going to start to
wake up to the fact that the rate problem

909
00:51:05,358 --> 00:51:07,950
is. isn't just a purchasing
problem for consumers.

910
00:51:08,330 --> 00:51:11,547
but it may actually have a bit of a
rippling effect here in the economy.

911
00:51:11,630 --> 00:51:15,288
starting with the financial institutions.
So they publish their next monthly reports

912
00:51:15,372 --> 00:51:18,451
on the September 30th ending period
on October 30th. And unfortunately,

913
00:51:18,535 --> 00:51:20,685
it coincides right
with the election cycle.

914
00:51:20,930 --> 00:51:23,188
So there's going to be
all this noise about, hey,

915
00:51:23,272 --> 00:51:26,725
how bad are things looking while we're
trying to go through this election?

916
00:51:26,808 --> 00:51:28,317
So, Saks, I don't know, like...

917
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,444
If there's any view on how
we fix this rate problem,

918
00:51:30,528 --> 00:51:33,378
but it's pretty nasty and it's
going to have some impact.

919
00:51:44,270 --> 00:51:48,017
[Speaker 2] Look, if you compare rates
to the nominal growth rate of the economy,

920
00:51:48,100 --> 00:51:50,523
and those two things are
highly correlated over time,

921
00:51:50,607 --> 00:51:53,172
you can see the economy
is running really hot right now.

922
00:51:53,255 --> 00:51:55,005
And that is part of the reason why.

923
00:51:55,310 --> 00:51:59,250
rates are going up is because
you have to compensate people, for

924
00:51:59,420 --> 00:52:02,685
a real return. And you've
got inflation in the threes,

925
00:52:02,768 --> 00:52:07,645
and then you've got GDP growth at 3.7%,
then rates are going to be high as well.

926
00:52:07,728 --> 00:52:11,720
Look, I think this all comes
back to price of diesel because...

927
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:15,717
That obviously has a lot to do with
not just people's price at the pump,

928
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,880
but also diesel's and industrial input.

929
00:52:18,350 --> 00:52:22,085
and the transportation costs
get baked into all these goods.

930
00:52:22,168 --> 00:52:25,317
I think if we can just
solve that problem, then...

931
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,822
Gas prices come down.
Inflation comes down.

932
00:52:27,905 --> 00:52:32,133
We can get rate cuts on that basis.
So I think that's the last piece here.

933
00:52:32,216 --> 00:52:35,420
I think the economy is already
doing, again, very well.

934
00:52:35,870 --> 00:52:38,931
2.5% in Q2, 3.7% in Q3.
But if we just get that last piece,

935
00:52:39,014 --> 00:52:42,129
I'm not saying there's not
a little bit of work to do there,

936
00:52:42,212 --> 00:52:44,770
I think the economy will
take off like a rocket.

937
00:52:45,350 --> 00:52:47,947
[Speaker 1] Yeah. I think
the conditions are right. You're right.

938
00:52:48,031 --> 00:52:50,534
I think the federal spending
problem is still persisting, though.

939
00:52:50,618 --> 00:52:52,286
It's almost like pouring
acid on everything.

940
00:52:52,369 --> 00:52:54,477
Like you've got all
this great stuff growing.

941
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:57,650
And then you just have all this federal
spending, which as you and I both know,

942
00:52:57,733 --> 00:52:59,683
is like negative productivity spending.

943
00:53:00,230 --> 00:53:04,119
And it's creating fake employment and it's
doing all sorts of bad things. But man,

944
00:53:04,202 --> 00:53:07,461
if we don't get spending, you know,
as Scott Besson has talked about,

945
00:53:07,545 --> 00:53:11,094
to 3% deficit as a percentage GDP,
these rates are only going to get worse.

946
00:53:11,178 --> 00:53:14,437
And that could basically just shoot
us in the foot. It's almost like,

947
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:18,368
[Speaker 2] you know, we all agree about
spending as a long term problem and it's

948
00:53:18,452 --> 00:53:21,717
a bipartisan problem. We have to fix it.
I would just say that, look,

949
00:53:21,801 --> 00:53:25,251
I would say about six months ago,
people said that if we get a spike.

950
00:53:25,610 --> 00:53:29,270
In gas prices, we're going
to have 1970s style stagflation.

951
00:53:29,420 --> 00:53:33,328
That has not happened. Instead,
we're seeing a super hot economy,

952
00:53:33,412 --> 00:53:36,583
and yet gas prices are
a little high. But by the way,

953
00:53:36,667 --> 00:53:40,720
during the Obama presidency,
we had over 300 days of of

954
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:47,003
Brent crude over $100 a barrel. So people
forget that we've had the economy do well

955
00:53:47,087 --> 00:53:51,560
over large stretches of time
with gas prices at these levels.

956
00:53:51,950 --> 00:53:54,531
It's just the diesel price are
a little bit high and that has to do

957
00:53:54,614 --> 00:53:56,577
with refineries. Frankly, it'd be...

958
00:53:56,660 --> 00:54:00,040
good if Zelensky stopped
hitting Russian...

959
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:04,705
refineries That hasn't helped the problem.
But look, so we just have that one issue,

960
00:54:04,789 --> 00:54:07,466
and I think we can resolve it.
There was a report this week,

961
00:54:07,549 --> 00:54:10,527
I think it was in The Guardian,
that it was in the Guardian,

962
00:54:10,610 --> 00:54:11,860
which is not a pro-Trump.

963
00:54:12,230 --> 00:54:16,348
publication saying that more oil got
out of Hormuz this week than since

964
00:54:16,431 --> 00:54:20,785
the beginning of the war. So I think
we need to kind of wrap up that issue.

965
00:54:20,869 --> 00:54:25,223
Gas prices come down. And then I think
that means inflation will come down.

966
00:54:25,307 --> 00:54:27,910
It's already coming
down more than expected.

967
00:54:28,430 --> 00:54:31,051
but then we can get a rate cut.
I think actually right now,

968
00:54:31,135 --> 00:54:35,035
no one's pricing in the potential for rate
cuts here. It's all rate increases.

969
00:54:35,450 --> 00:54:39,454
If we could get some relief there,
get rate cuts, I mean, again,

970
00:54:39,537 --> 00:54:43,050
the economy is going to rocket
even more. We have two –

971
00:54:43,790 --> 00:54:46,140
[Speaker 3] tricky
auctions that are coming up.

972
00:54:46,970 --> 00:54:50,370
And I think Treasury will
be able to navigate those

973
00:54:50,690 --> 00:54:54,030
Well, just because I think Scott
has such a good handle on...

974
00:54:54,260 --> 00:54:56,900
how to do this and frankly
how to do the job

975
00:54:57,950 --> 00:55:01,621
But once we get past those two auctions,
I'm leaning more in the SACS camp.

976
00:55:01,704 --> 00:55:05,676
I kind of tend to agree with you. There's
going to be some growing evidence about

977
00:55:05,759 --> 00:55:08,459
what to do. based on what
happens from Europe as well.

978
00:55:08,870 --> 00:55:11,237
I don't know if you guys
have been tracking this,

979
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:13,870
but France is going through
a really complicated...

980
00:55:14,150 --> 00:55:19,236
budget negotiation right now. And they're
about to shrink the budget by probably

981
00:55:19,319 --> 00:55:20,870
$50-75 billion, which is

982
00:55:21,020 --> 00:55:25,182
You can imagine in France, that's like
ground zero for it's a one-way ratchet

983
00:55:25,266 --> 00:55:26,920
to GDP going through the roof.

984
00:55:27,230 --> 00:55:29,235
And so when the French start to make cuts,

985
00:55:29,319 --> 00:55:33,214
and it's what Freiburg has been saying,
it's why were they forced to capitulate?

986
00:55:33,297 --> 00:55:36,447
Because of long rates.
So that's happened. Andy Burnham, who...

987
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,937
you know, bumbled his way into
the prime ministership of the UK,

988
00:55:40,021 --> 00:55:42,621
presented his policy platform
yesterday for an hour,

989
00:55:43,730 --> 00:55:46,900
It's truly insane. what he's saying.

990
00:55:48,260 --> 00:55:50,067
This is an extremely...

991
00:55:50,150 --> 00:55:55,330
muscular form of socialism that he
intends to impose on the United Kingdom.

992
00:55:56,630 --> 00:55:59,410
and then to re-merge back into your...

993
00:56:00,050 --> 00:56:02,590
And so he's going to try to undo Brexit.

994
00:56:02,720 --> 00:56:05,820
He's going to try to double
and triple the size of government.

995
00:56:06,950 --> 00:56:10,330
Not a mention of growth. Like,
how do you grow the private economy?

996
00:56:11,750 --> 00:56:16,437
Insane. So what you're going to see from
both of those two places over the next...

997
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:19,340
here and is I think going to

998
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,011
tell us what we're going to have
to do in the United States.

999
00:56:23,094 --> 00:56:24,294
But I tend to think that

1000
00:56:25,010 --> 00:56:27,927
we're going to see a little bit
more growth than that is expected.

1001
00:56:28,011 --> 00:56:31,155
I tend to think we're going to probably
see a little bit more revision.

1002
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:34,383
And I think that people are sleeping
on the fact that we are not nearly

1003
00:56:34,467 --> 00:56:36,520
as dependent on oil
the way that we used to be.

1004
00:56:36,604 --> 00:56:40,067
And so even though we used to breathlessly
look at Brent crude and WTI and all

1005
00:56:40,150 --> 00:56:43,726
this stuff, I don't think it
matters nearly as much as it used to.

1006
00:56:43,809 --> 00:56:47,595
And I think that's crazy because like
the paradigm of rates and the paradigm

1007
00:56:47,678 --> 00:56:51,362
of currencies and the petrodollar,
all these intermingled things that used

1008
00:56:51,445 --> 00:56:52,707
to drive the global economy

1009
00:56:52,790 --> 00:56:57,012
are now getting rewired in ways that I
don't think anybody fully understands.

1010
00:56:57,096 --> 00:56:59,417
And that's very good
for the United States.

1011
00:56:59,500 --> 00:57:02,228
[Speaker 1] So I think we
have to factor that in as well.

1012
00:57:02,311 --> 00:57:06,272
The one problem is we do have gas prices
at the pump are up 50% since the Iran war

1013
00:57:06,355 --> 00:57:09,403
started. And that hurts
the everyday consumer significantly.

1014
00:57:09,486 --> 00:57:12,972
It may not drive the GDP numbers
down super aggressively because of

1015
00:57:13,055 --> 00:57:16,647
the industrial, but the actual cost
of living for the average person.

1016
00:57:16,730 --> 00:57:20,641
[Speaker 3] But can I say something?
Yeah. I've looked at those numbers.

1017
00:57:20,724 --> 00:57:23,110
The prices, they're terrible.
And I feel...

1018
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:25,940
bad for people that have
to bear that cost.

1019
00:57:26,390 --> 00:57:29,040
But I think it's also
important to say that is not...

1020
00:57:29,420 --> 00:57:31,900
An input issue, that is a refining issue.

1021
00:57:32,330 --> 00:57:36,761
For decades and decades, we turned off the
refining infrastructure that the United

1022
00:57:36,844 --> 00:57:38,110
States could have used.

1023
00:57:38,420 --> 00:57:42,236
And so we now need, as Sack said,
the Russians, the Chinese,

1024
00:57:42,319 --> 00:57:46,980
we need as much refining capacity
as possible to take all of this oil and

1025
00:57:47,063 --> 00:57:49,774
to get it into usable
forms. So I hear you,

1026
00:57:49,858 --> 00:57:54,388
but I think it's also important
to acknowledge where the constraint is.

1027
00:57:54,472 --> 00:57:59,132
The constraint is not the oil.
The constraint is over decades and decades

1028
00:57:59,216 --> 00:58:01,620
of all this electricity. I hate to...

1029
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:06,020
[Speaker 4] put a little rain
on this Hopian parade here.

1030
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,760
But two important charts
as we go into the midterms.

1031
00:58:09,890 --> 00:58:14,106
Here is Trump's. Well, in my court
belief is not enough has changed.

1032
00:58:14,190 --> 00:58:18,110
And so the American people,
you pull up the first chart, Nick.

1033
00:58:19,130 --> 00:58:21,970
If we look at just since
Trump's been in office,

1034
00:58:22,670 --> 00:58:25,687
I think the challenge is nothing's
changed. If you look at unemployment,

1035
00:58:25,771 --> 00:58:27,721
it hasn't changed. It's about the same.

1036
00:58:28,070 --> 00:58:32,211
And then if you look at inflation,
it's still sustained at that high threes,

1037
00:58:32,294 --> 00:58:36,630
sometimes dipping into four, sometimes
as low as 3.2, but never into the twos.

1038
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:41,146
And GDP is something that the
American people just don't feel.

1039
00:58:41,229 --> 00:58:43,107
And if you look at this chart,

1040
00:58:43,190 --> 00:58:46,757
These are Trump's biggest strengths.
So you have to ask yourself,

1041
00:58:46,841 --> 00:58:51,082
how did this administration go from an
incredibly positive feeling when Trump

1042
00:58:51,165 --> 00:58:55,701
2.0, came out to having just a net
negative on immigration, trade,

1043
00:58:55,784 --> 00:59:00,757
the economy and inflation. And people's
perception is their own reality.

1044
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:06,235
And the perception right now is that Trump
and this administration cares about

1045
00:59:06,318 --> 00:59:09,900
foreign wars and it cares
about industry much more.

1046
00:59:10,070 --> 00:59:15,238
then it cares about the average American.
And that is the exact opposite of what

1047
00:59:15,322 --> 00:59:18,258
Trump promised his own
constituents. And this,

1048
00:59:18,342 --> 00:59:23,379
what you see here in these results is,
he's lost all those independents he won

1049
00:59:23,462 --> 00:59:28,171
with the promise of Trump 2.0.
And he's obviously never going to win over

1050
00:59:28,254 --> 00:59:32,390
Democrats, and he's starting
to lose his base. And the base is,

1051
00:59:32,750 --> 00:59:36,838
You know, now fleeing and saying, hey, you
promised us you were going to deport 20

1052
00:59:36,921 --> 00:59:39,210
million people,
something I don't agree with.

1053
00:59:39,950 --> 00:59:43,446
But that didn't happen. So now he's
losing all those core positions,

1054
00:59:43,529 --> 00:59:45,867
the things that were
supposed to be a shrinks.

1055
00:59:45,950 --> 00:59:49,814
And that's where you have to wonder
what is going on in this administration

1056
00:59:49,897 --> 00:59:53,867
that they just can't even talk about
the issues that the American people care

1057
00:59:53,950 --> 00:59:57,919
about. And obviously, the war just
destroyed this administration's popularity

1058
00:59:58,003 --> 00:59:59,917
with their own base, their democracy.

1059
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,360
going to get shellacked. in the

1060
01:00:03,180 --> 01:00:05,916
midterms according to all polls.
And of course, Trump,

1061
01:00:05,999 --> 01:00:08,213
if anybody's gonna pull
a rabbit in the hat,

1062
01:00:08,296 --> 01:00:11,220
it will be Trump because he
has beaten the polls before.

1063
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:15,881
But this is not looking good, gentlemen.
And you could spin sacks the last couple

1064
01:00:15,964 --> 01:00:16,557
of quarters.

1065
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:20,387
[Speaker 2] Can I respond to this?
Absolutely. By the way,

1066
01:00:20,470 --> 01:00:22,657
I wish it was different. I wish the...

1067
01:00:22,740 --> 01:00:24,097
[Speaker 4] had 2% inflation right now.

1068
01:00:24,180 --> 01:00:26,101
[Speaker 1] Jason,
what is your prediction?

1069
01:00:26,184 --> 01:00:29,550
What do you think is going to happen?
I just look at Polymarket, honestly,

1070
01:00:29,633 --> 01:00:32,160
and pull up the Polymarket here.
I think it's about 70%,

1071
01:00:32,243 --> 01:00:35,236
80% that the Democrats sweep both.
By the way, over the next week,

1072
01:00:35,319 --> 01:00:38,965
the four of us are going to have a squad
on Polymarket where we're going to make

1073
01:00:39,048 --> 01:00:40,198
all of our predictions.

1074
01:00:40,590 --> 01:00:43,306
And then the audience can kind
of follow along and see how we all do on

1075
01:00:43,389 --> 01:00:43,937
our predictions,

1076
01:00:44,020 --> 01:00:47,522
[Speaker 4] which will be kind
of interesting. But I don't, Jamath,

1077
01:00:47,605 --> 01:00:49,207
I am not an expert on polling.

1078
01:00:49,290 --> 01:00:53,198
But I do think starting with the people
actually betting money and 63% chance

1079
01:00:53,281 --> 01:00:57,138
the Democrats take the Senate, 93%.
They take the House and if you put those

1080
01:00:57,221 --> 01:00:59,450
together, there's
a chance they sweep both.

1081
01:01:00,150 --> 01:01:02,630
Who knows with these polls? I do think

1082
01:01:03,570 --> 01:01:06,803
I would look at Polymarket first.
And if you could zoom in there,

1083
01:01:06,887 --> 01:01:09,030
the chances they take both is at what now?

1084
01:01:09,540 --> 01:01:11,527
[Speaker 2] Sweep 64%
that they sweep. Okay,

1085
01:01:11,610 --> 01:01:15,743
[Speaker 4] let me tell you what I
think is wrong with this analysis. Okay,

1086
01:01:15,827 --> 01:01:19,200
go ahead. Okay, look. So, look,
I made this mistake in 2022.

1087
01:01:19,950 --> 01:01:23,070
[Speaker 2] Like I was sure
there was going to be a red wave.

1088
01:01:23,220 --> 01:01:26,620
In 2022, this is when Biden
was president and this was his midterms.

1089
01:01:27,570 --> 01:01:29,942
Now, and it ended up being
like a red trickle. I mean,

1090
01:01:30,026 --> 01:01:32,076
it was very disappointing to Republicans.

1091
01:01:32,610 --> 01:01:35,330
They made gains,
but it was not a shellacking.

1092
01:01:35,413 --> 01:01:40,266
So what was the mistake that I made? It
was that I was only looking at perception

1093
01:01:40,350 --> 01:01:45,020
and I wasn't looking enough at reality
and I wasn't balancing the reality. So,

1094
01:01:45,103 --> 01:01:49,430
for example, Biden's polling was in
the 30s. He was very low back then.

1095
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:53,749
And inflation was 9%. But if you
looked at GDP growth and unemployment,

1096
01:01:53,833 --> 01:01:56,360
those numbers were actually pretty strong.

1097
01:01:56,790 --> 01:02:00,602
So, you know, there was a lot of talking
down the economy based on one variable,

1098
01:02:00,686 --> 01:02:03,586
which was inflation.
It was too high and it was a problem.

1099
01:02:04,110 --> 01:02:07,308
But there were other variables
that were actually quite good.

1100
01:02:07,391 --> 01:02:09,650
So the reality that people were feeling...

1101
01:02:10,020 --> 01:02:13,406
Wasn't as bad as, you know, this like
super hyperbolic view that, again,

1102
01:02:13,490 --> 01:02:17,021
all the pollsters have an incentive
to kind of exaggerate the stuff and all

1103
01:02:17,104 --> 01:02:20,587
the political operatives always freak out.
It's good for ratings. But yes,

1104
01:02:20,670 --> 01:02:23,864
it's good for ratings. But the reality
is the American people, look,

1105
01:02:23,947 --> 01:02:27,671
they went red. Don't get me wrong. But it
wasn't the massive wave that everyone

1106
01:02:27,754 --> 01:02:29,254
was expecting was more like a.

1107
01:02:29,460 --> 01:02:33,576
red trickle. I think here, I don't
think we're going to get a blue wave.

1108
01:02:33,659 --> 01:02:35,700
I think we might get a blue spritz.

1109
01:02:35,970 --> 01:02:42,970
I mean, listen, I think that, listen,
Biden wishes that back in 2022, Biden,

1110
01:02:45,150 --> 01:02:50,353
I'm saying that back in 2022, Biden would
have wished for the economy that Trump has

1111
01:02:50,436 --> 01:02:53,248
now. OK, yes, we have
three percent inflation.

1112
01:02:53,331 --> 01:02:58,031
It's not nine percent like Biden had.
Yes, gas prices are a little bit high,

1113
01:02:58,114 --> 01:03:02,122
but GDP growth is great.
It's accelerating. Unemployment's great.

1114
01:03:02,205 --> 01:03:06,212
Labor participation is great.
Poverty, the poverty line is great.

1115
01:03:06,296 --> 01:03:10,890
I think the Republicans are going
to surprise people and keep the Senate.

1116
01:03:11,460 --> 01:03:14,743
And I think, you know, most people
think Republicans lose the House.

1117
01:03:14,827 --> 01:03:18,655
I guess that's probably consensus, but
it's not going to be this gigantic wave.

1118
01:03:18,738 --> 01:03:24,040
I think it'll be. narrow if the Democrats
win. And I think it'll be a real headache.

1119
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:27,696
for Hakeem Jeffries to keep all
of these DSA Democrats in line.

1120
01:03:27,779 --> 01:03:30,314
If you remember when Kevin
McCarthy had the House,

1121
01:03:30,397 --> 01:03:34,608
he had a very thin majority, and he lost
his speakership because he couldn't quite

1122
01:03:34,691 --> 01:03:38,692
keep the Freedom Caucus in line. I think
Hakeem Jeffries is going to have very

1123
01:03:38,775 --> 01:03:41,729
similar problems if the Democrats
take the House. So look,

1124
01:03:41,812 --> 01:03:45,761
I even noticed Mark Halperin's been
predicting a blue tsunami for last month,

1125
01:03:45,844 --> 01:03:47,520
but he's starting to hedge that.

1126
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:50,826
So I think the pro-Democrat,
pro-Blue sentiment peaked, I think,

1127
01:03:50,909 --> 01:03:54,759
about two weeks ago. And since then,
it's been very positive economic numbers

1128
01:03:54,842 --> 01:03:58,641
for the president. The Republicans need
to go out there and tell that story.

1129
01:03:58,724 --> 01:04:02,420
You know, can't have all this Doomer
stuff. We've got to turn this around.

1130
01:04:02,504 --> 01:04:06,200
I think we just neutralized this whole
AI safety issue at the White House.

1131
01:04:06,284 --> 01:04:09,622
So I think that the next month
actually – If there had to be a war,

1132
01:04:09,706 --> 01:04:11,800
what do you think the situation would be?

1133
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:16,340
Well, look, I mean, you know, again,
I said that the one missing piece here

1134
01:04:16,424 --> 01:04:20,513
is diesel prices. So you get the price
of diesel down and that'll be the last

1135
01:04:20,596 --> 01:04:24,793
remaining unlock on inflation that'll
bring rates down and the economy is going

1136
01:04:24,876 --> 01:04:27,611
to hit, you know, 5% GDP growth.
So without the war,

1137
01:04:27,694 --> 01:04:29,941
you think the Republicans
could have swept?

1138
01:04:30,024 --> 01:04:33,733
Or there's ways of solving that problem
with diesel. I mean, and look,

1139
01:04:33,817 --> 01:04:37,201
in the last week, I mean,
this is the news report. OK, you know,

1140
01:04:37,285 --> 01:04:41,240
I don't know the reality of what's
happening in Hormuz, but according to.

1141
01:04:41,490 --> 01:04:45,187
all the publications, they just got a
record amount of oil out of Hormuz. Yeah,

1142
01:04:45,270 --> 01:04:48,796
[Speaker 4] they're doing night shipping
with the lights off kind of situation?

1143
01:04:48,879 --> 01:04:51,583
Yeah, interesting. So, look,
if we can just wrap that – look,

1144
01:04:51,666 --> 01:04:54,247
I'm in favor of wrapping it up,
don't get me wrong, but –

1145
01:04:54,330 --> 01:04:56,591
[Speaker 2] I think the president
says indicate he'll do that.

1146
01:04:56,674 --> 01:04:59,087
He doesn't want to be pressured
into doing it before the election.

1147
01:04:59,170 --> 01:05:02,621
[Speaker 4] You said that very clearly.
What do you think is going to happen here?

1148
01:05:02,704 --> 01:05:04,957
Prediction for the election.
We're a month out.

1149
01:05:05,040 --> 01:05:07,490
[Speaker 1] From the numbers
that I'm looking at,

1150
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:08,980
The Senate, I think, is...

1151
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:14,170
very much a toss-up, but I
think can remain Republican.

1152
01:05:14,910 --> 01:05:18,560
And I think the Democrats are going
to have a slim majority in the House.

1153
01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:20,160
Okay, same as snacks. Yeah.

1154
01:05:21,060 --> 01:05:23,580
And I think the... The way that...

1155
01:05:23,790 --> 01:05:27,550
the president can seal the deal,
so to speak, is I think you have to

1156
01:05:28,530 --> 01:05:33,440
focus on the economic gains and,
And you have to dispel...

1157
01:05:35,130 --> 01:05:38,760
the Doomer narrative. And I think if
you can stay focused on that for the next

1158
01:05:38,844 --> 01:05:40,594
month, I think the Republicans have

1159
01:05:40,830 --> 01:05:44,350
a pretty decent shot. Now,
the other side is also true. If you can...

1160
01:05:44,520 --> 01:05:45,680
distract people,

1161
01:05:47,190 --> 01:05:51,140
and focus on the one or two things that
are still problematic, like gas prices.

1162
01:05:51,510 --> 01:05:53,797
and continue to reinforce
the Doomer narrative,

1163
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:56,740
you have a chance to overachieve
if you're the Democrats.

1164
01:05:57,180 --> 01:06:00,298
So I think this is how it's
going to come down, Jason.

1165
01:06:00,381 --> 01:06:02,160
Can you focus on a few things?

1166
01:06:02,310 --> 01:06:05,971
Issues like gas prices, or do you look
at a broad-based look at the economy?

1167
01:06:06,054 --> 01:06:07,004
That's on one side.

1168
01:06:07,170 --> 01:06:11,482
And do you look at superintelligence as a
constructive force of GDP growth or do you

1169
01:06:11,565 --> 01:06:15,563
buy the boomer narrative? And I think
what we're going to see is who is better

1170
01:06:15,647 --> 01:06:20,550
organized. And who gets that message
out the cleanest? And whoever does that,

1171
01:06:21,090 --> 01:06:22,657
[Speaker 4] for sure wins the house.

1172
01:06:22,740 --> 01:06:26,075
Yeah, I think the dumerism, Freiburg,
is like not a huge winning issue.

1173
01:06:26,159 --> 01:06:29,109
All I have to say is Trump
promised not to start a war. He did.

1174
01:06:29,192 --> 01:06:31,564
He promised to solve inflation.
He didn't. The end.

1175
01:06:31,647 --> 01:06:35,223
And I think the Democrats sweep. What's
your take on what's going to happen,

1176
01:06:35,307 --> 01:06:36,140
Freiburg?

1177
01:06:41,700 --> 01:06:45,940
[Speaker 1] Yeah, I think the more
important question is what happens between

1178
01:06:46,410 --> 01:06:49,730
26 and 28. Go ahead, take that one.
That was my follow-up.

1179
01:06:50,100 --> 01:06:53,580
[Speaker 4] What do you think
happens between 26 and 28?

1180
01:06:54,210 --> 01:06:56,150
Whether we split, sweep, either way.

1181
01:06:58,050 --> 01:07:00,750
[Speaker 1] Yeah, I think
that those are kind of like,

1182
01:07:00,930 --> 01:07:05,690
a consequence and it's not just split
or sweep. I think what happens is,

1183
01:07:05,970 --> 01:07:10,918
Between 26 and 28 is how far left do the
Democrats go and how much does that get

1184
01:07:11,001 --> 01:07:15,320
hardened? And then how much do
the Republicans splinter into this kind

1185
01:07:15,403 --> 01:07:18,610
of populist thing and do
the populist kind of fuse?

1186
01:07:19,980 --> 01:07:23,230
And then we end up in this kind
of socialist takeover of America.

1187
01:07:23,910 --> 01:07:26,641
The America First movement,
I think you're referring to,

1188
01:07:26,724 --> 01:07:30,057
the Tucker Carlson movement.
I actually don't know if that's even...

1189
01:07:30,141 --> 01:07:34,077
Remember there was a Tea Party. There's
a whole bunch of manifestations of these

1190
01:07:34,161 --> 01:07:36,439
social emotions, these
kind of public emotions.

1191
01:07:36,522 --> 01:07:40,358
They all kind of fuse into different
words and different parties and different

1192
01:07:40,442 --> 01:07:43,926
groups. Who knows where it goes?
It's certainly unlikely that the first

1193
01:07:44,009 --> 01:07:47,695
manifestation is the one that sticks
and holds and becomes the biggest one.

1194
01:07:47,778 --> 01:07:50,190
I mean, look, I would
argue the Tea Party was...

1195
01:07:50,400 --> 01:07:53,520
sort of seeded MAGA years later.
Yes, of course.

1196
01:07:54,090 --> 01:07:56,302
But this kind of populist
movement does not –

1197
01:07:56,386 --> 01:07:59,772
like if you look at the first
derivative of it, it's still positive.

1198
01:07:59,855 --> 01:08:02,629
Like the populist sentiment
is still growing in America.

1199
01:08:02,712 --> 01:08:06,761
And that's what I really care about the
most because I do think that that's where

1200
01:08:06,844 --> 01:08:08,630
individual liberties get destroyed.

1201
01:08:09,030 --> 01:08:13,030
as populism effectively mandates
a bigger kind of government movement.

1202
01:08:13,350 --> 01:08:15,270
to solve our individual problems.

1203
01:08:16,110 --> 01:08:20,435
And I worry that we've got some looming
crises, looming crisis, number one,

1204
01:08:20,519 --> 01:08:24,810
being social security, looming crisis,
number two, being where rates are.

1205
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:28,120
and the impact that's going to have
on affordability looming crisis.

1206
01:08:28,203 --> 01:08:31,794
Number three being that this idea of an
asset tax is actually going to solve any

1207
01:08:31,877 --> 01:08:32,710
problems where

1208
01:08:32,850 --> 01:08:36,829
The truth is, like I've said in the past,
if you took 100% of the net wealth of all

1209
01:08:36,912 --> 01:08:39,912
the billionaires in the United
States as a tax, a one-time tax,

1210
01:08:39,995 --> 01:08:44,300
and took 100% of their net worth, It would
fund one year of the federal government.

1211
01:08:44,580 --> 01:08:48,617
All the billionaire's money combined is
one year of federal government spending.

1212
01:08:48,700 --> 01:08:51,346
It doesn't really move
the needle to do an asset tax,

1213
01:08:51,430 --> 01:08:55,364
that there's a fundamental restructuring
of how we tax and how we spend that's

1214
01:08:55,447 --> 01:08:56,580
going to be necessary.

1215
01:08:57,120 --> 01:09:01,942
You either need to tax the middle class,
which is where $160 trillion of America's

1216
01:09:02,025 --> 01:09:06,350
$183 trillion net worth sits,
or you've got to cut spending massively,

1217
01:09:06,540 --> 01:09:09,579
or you've got to completely
restructure these entitlement programs,

1218
01:09:09,663 --> 01:09:13,354
all of which are deeply unpopular. All
three of those paths are deeply unpopular.

1219
01:09:13,438 --> 01:09:16,938
So when something deeply unpopular
starts to kind of be the only path,

1220
01:09:17,700 --> 01:09:19,828
What happens? And that's
what I worry most about.

1221
01:09:19,912 --> 01:09:23,123
And I think that's all going to kind
of come to a head between 26 and 28.

1222
01:09:23,206 --> 01:09:26,057
I think it's going to frame
the political calculus going into 28.

1223
01:09:26,140 --> 01:09:28,659
[Speaker 4] It's going to be
fascinating and we'll be here for it.

1224
01:09:28,742 --> 01:09:32,442
I don't know if you guys had time when
you were busy here, but there was a

1225
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:34,660
hijacking that occurred.

1226
01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:39,760
slash terrorist attack, I think is the
only way to describe it. Fly Dubai, flight

1227
01:09:40,440 --> 01:09:46,777
from Dubai to Tel Aviv.
David had 174 passages on board.

1228
01:09:46,860 --> 01:09:49,620
An Omani co-pilot, apparently...

1229
01:09:50,700 --> 01:09:54,320
stabbed the captain and tried
to crash the plane...

1230
01:09:55,590 --> 01:10:01,370
in a 9-11 style attack.
Passengers, bravely, subdued him

1231
01:10:01,690 --> 01:10:05,290
And there were off-duty
pilots on the plane...

1232
01:10:06,130 --> 01:10:07,480
miraculously, miraculously,

1233
01:10:07,570 --> 01:10:12,490
I mean, what are the chances?
And they somehow, during this period,

1234
01:10:14,380 --> 01:10:17,398
terrorists trying to down
the plane, Friedberg,

1235
01:10:17,481 --> 01:10:22,742
were able to not only remove him, but get
these off-duty pilots into the cockpit,

1236
01:10:22,825 --> 01:10:25,200
level the plane, and land it safely.

1237
01:10:26,170 --> 01:10:31,694
One of the most amazing acts of bravery
with this co-pilot who fought off

1238
01:10:31,778 --> 01:10:32,930
the terrorists.

1239
01:10:33,430 --> 01:10:37,516
And then three or four passengers
were able to get into that cockpit,

1240
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:42,820
drag this terrorist out. And yeah,
land the plane. Your thoughts, Freebird?

1241
01:10:43,180 --> 01:10:47,139
[Speaker 1] Well, I mean, the eyewitness
accounts came out pretty fast and furious

1242
01:10:47,222 --> 01:10:51,132
because these guys had Internet access
as soon as they were able to land in Saudi

1243
01:10:51,215 --> 01:10:54,357
Arabia. And they started
to provide their reports.

1244
01:10:54,441 --> 01:10:58,925
But what really I thought was the most
striking aspect of all of this,

1245
01:10:59,008 --> 01:11:04,015
despite what I thought was incredible
heroism and bravery and just a true kind

1246
01:11:04,098 --> 01:11:05,837
of showing of human spirit.

1247
01:11:05,920 --> 01:11:12,920
was how the media covered it. And I was
deeply saddened because I remember 9-11,

1248
01:11:14,380 --> 01:11:21,028
I remember the shock and the anger and
the stories coming out during that day.

1249
01:11:21,112 --> 01:11:25,170
I remember the the media, the news...

1250
01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:28,620
channels were my source of truth.

1251
01:11:29,410 --> 01:11:31,050
And I watched it all day.

1252
01:11:31,210 --> 01:11:34,497
And then yesterday, this happened.
And so here's an example.

1253
01:11:34,581 --> 01:11:38,300
This is the New York Times...
cover the day after 9/11.

1254
01:11:38,530 --> 01:11:44,530
Hijacked jets destroy Twin Towers and
notice this and hit Pentagon in day of...

1255
01:11:44,740 --> 01:11:45,573
Terror.

1256
01:11:46,120 --> 01:11:48,140
And it really was a day of terror.

1257
01:11:48,580 --> 01:11:50,260
It was a truly tragic...

1258
01:11:51,460 --> 01:11:52,610
event in human history.

1259
01:11:53,740 --> 01:11:57,320
regardless of your political
or social beliefs then or now.

1260
01:11:57,670 --> 01:12:02,175
the loss of life, In this case, the loss
of life in conflict that followed,

1261
01:12:02,258 --> 01:12:04,150
the loss of life in conflict that

1262
01:12:04,750 --> 01:12:07,230
around October 7th and that followed that.

1263
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:09,520
It's all tragic, and it's all terror.

1264
01:12:09,910 --> 01:12:13,234
And it's all awful.
And the reporting yesterday on this event,

1265
01:12:13,317 --> 01:12:16,140
which I found to be kind
of emotionally distressing, was

1266
01:12:17,020 --> 01:12:22,230
Almost like a strange... casting
of the experience as being one of a fight

1267
01:12:22,720 --> 01:12:25,070
between two buddies
that weren't getting along.

1268
01:12:25,510 --> 01:12:25,550
The pilots got into a scuffle.

1269
01:12:25,620 --> 01:12:28,586
[Speaker 4] It was the
original reporting, yes.

1270
01:12:28,669 --> 01:12:33,322
The first one was New York Times came
out and said it was an altercation.

1271
01:12:33,405 --> 01:12:36,130
And then the journal called it a struggle.

1272
01:12:36,460 --> 01:12:39,222
[Speaker 1] The BBC called
it a fight between pilots.

1273
01:12:39,305 --> 01:12:41,560
Sky News called it a brawl between pilots.

1274
01:12:42,130 --> 01:12:47,085
AFP called it said they were fighting.
Even CNN said it was a altercation.

1275
01:12:47,168 --> 01:12:51,070
And there were direct eyewitness
reports coming out at this time

1276
01:12:51,700 --> 01:12:54,600
about this guy trying to take
over the plane and crash it.

1277
01:12:55,090 --> 01:12:58,990
And this was clearly a terror event.
And we stopped using this word terror.

1278
01:12:59,200 --> 01:13:01,500
For some reason,
because when we use terror...

1279
01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:05,578
It doesn't allow us to politicize and
create sides of a story and a long form

1280
01:13:05,661 --> 01:13:09,111
narrative that I believe so much
of the media is trying to portray.

1281
01:13:09,195 --> 01:13:13,278
And I'm not going to try and say what
their narrative is and who's trying to do

1282
01:13:13,361 --> 01:13:16,420
it. But here's the next day
on The New York Times website.

1283
01:13:17,710 --> 01:13:20,828
So this is the day after when all
the facts of the case have come out.

1284
01:13:20,911 --> 01:13:24,211
What happened? This is the front
page of the New York Times today.

1285
01:13:24,520 --> 01:13:28,213
A day after, with all of the witnesses,
with all of the journalism that would

1286
01:13:28,296 --> 01:13:31,067
allow you to validate multiply
witnesses on what happened,

1287
01:13:31,150 --> 01:13:34,430
on this flight that investigators
seek to establish a motive

1288
01:13:35,500 --> 01:13:39,006
The story is that the guy tried
to crash a plane full of passengers.

1289
01:13:39,090 --> 01:13:42,702
He took over the plane and he tried
to do it. Number one bullet point,

1290
01:13:42,785 --> 01:13:44,580
737 sustained the enormous stress.

1291
01:13:45,040 --> 01:13:47,660
Number two, investigators
seek to answer the motive.

1292
01:13:48,550 --> 01:13:53,857
And in bullet point number three, Israeli
politicians use the attack to try to score

1293
01:13:53,941 --> 01:13:55,940
points. in this month's election.

1294
01:13:57,730 --> 01:14:00,050
And so I just kind of lost faith.

1295
01:14:00,310 --> 01:14:05,594
yesterday and today and how the media is
kind of characterizing facts on the ground

1296
01:14:05,677 --> 01:14:08,910
that there is human tragedy,
that there is terror.

1297
01:14:09,100 --> 01:14:10,971
And that from their view,
from their writing,

1298
01:14:11,055 --> 01:14:14,012
this ends up becoming a place to kind
of sell, I think, unfortunately,

1299
01:14:14,095 --> 01:14:17,009
a narrative that is all too popular
and is what's going to sell them.

1300
01:14:17,093 --> 01:14:19,659
And they don't want to lose
people by saying the wrong thing.

1301
01:14:19,742 --> 01:14:21,657
And they want to say
what they think is right.

1302
01:14:21,741 --> 01:14:24,227
And I don't know who
the individuals are behind all of it.

1303
01:14:24,310 --> 01:14:28,104
But I just found it to be pretty shocking
for me that 25 years ago to today,

1304
01:14:28,188 --> 01:14:32,084
how much has changed in the landscape
of the people that we trust that we call

1305
01:14:32,167 --> 01:14:36,216
journalists to tell us the truth of what's
going on and to try and recharacterize

1306
01:14:36,300 --> 01:14:40,145
such horrific events because it doesn't
quite conform to a specific narrative

1307
01:14:40,228 --> 01:14:42,543
that they've been trying
to sell for some time.

1308
01:14:42,626 --> 01:14:46,370
So I was deeply upset about the whole
thing. I wanted to bring it up. Yeah,

1309
01:14:46,453 --> 01:14:47,177
I mean.

1310
01:14:47,260 --> 01:14:48,710
[Speaker 4] reasonably upset.

1311
01:14:50,080 --> 01:14:50,547
[Speaker 1] Two different responses.

1312
01:14:50,630 --> 01:14:54,360
[Speaker 4] And I do think
a big shout out to the pilot.

1313
01:14:54,460 --> 01:14:57,884
[Speaker 1] If you read the reports, he
wouldn't go to the bathroom because he had

1314
01:14:57,967 --> 01:15:00,377
suspicions that his co-pilot
was going to do something.

1315
01:15:00,460 --> 01:15:04,383
He called for an emergency urinary bag
and he stayed in the cockpit to pee in his

1316
01:15:04,466 --> 01:15:07,016
urinary bag. That's when
the guy tried to kill him.

1317
01:15:07,510 --> 01:15:11,910
He fought the guy off. While he
was stabbed and bleeding out to death,

1318
01:15:12,190 --> 01:15:16,707
heroically opened up the cockpit door, and
screamed for passengers to come and help.

1319
01:15:16,790 --> 01:15:18,850
And then several heroic souls stepped up,

1320
01:15:19,240 --> 01:15:22,540
and saved the day and saved 170
some odd lives. That's the story.

1321
01:15:22,623 --> 01:15:25,350
It's a story of terror.
It's a story of human heroism.

1322
01:15:25,434 --> 01:15:29,462
I don't care where these people are from.
I don't care what religion anyone is.

1323
01:15:29,545 --> 01:15:32,460
I don't care what political
interests anyone might have.

1324
01:15:32,650 --> 01:15:36,672
This is the story that needs to be told.
And it is being kind of bullshit recast

1325
01:15:36,755 --> 01:15:40,623
by the media about Israeli politicians
trying to score points is what the New

1326
01:15:40,706 --> 01:15:43,445
York Times is trying to sell
on their cover page today,

1327
01:15:43,528 --> 01:15:46,267
as opposed to the story
of what really took place here.

1328
01:15:46,351 --> 01:15:50,475
And then the New York Times, you know, got
so much shit over it that they started,

1329
01:15:50,558 --> 01:15:54,529
Jake, I'll you can cover this, but. Yeah.
And the New York Times communications

1330
01:15:54,612 --> 01:15:58,050
account says, based on the early
tweet, which was, hey, there were.

1331
01:15:58,330 --> 01:16:00,677
[Speaker 4] There
was an altercation. Quote,

1332
01:16:00,760 --> 01:16:05,150
our headlines and live coverage contain
all the facts we're able to confirm as we

1333
01:16:05,233 --> 01:16:07,635
confirm them.
Unlike activists and partisans,

1334
01:16:07,718 --> 01:16:10,673
we don't publish speculation
or unverified information.

1335
01:16:10,756 --> 01:16:14,207
Here's a gift link to follow
along to our reporting, yada, yada.

1336
01:16:14,290 --> 01:16:17,797
So I guess two topics there, Sachs.
You have the real time issue,

1337
01:16:17,880 --> 01:16:20,310
which is certainly very
different than 9-11.

1338
01:16:21,880 --> 01:16:22,940
And that was a,

1339
01:16:23,800 --> 01:16:26,767
An attack where people
took credit pretty quickly,

1340
01:16:26,850 --> 01:16:31,220
if my memory serves me correctly.
And in this case, we're left to wonder,

1341
01:16:31,304 --> 01:16:33,500
lone wolf, coordinated attack, etc.,

1342
01:16:34,450 --> 01:16:38,100
But certainly strange the next day's
coverage, I think, at a minimum, is,

1343
01:16:38,710 --> 01:16:42,300
that they can't call this a terrorist
attack, a little bit odd.

1344
01:16:42,384 --> 01:16:43,550
Your thoughts, next?

1345
01:16:44,320 --> 01:16:49,208
[Speaker 2] Well, I think we can probably
infer what the motive here was. I mean,

1346
01:16:49,292 --> 01:16:51,848
it was terrorism.
This was a Dubai airline,

1347
01:16:51,931 --> 01:16:54,947
but I think all the passengers
were Israeli. Yeah.

1348
01:16:55,030 --> 01:16:58,630
One other detail I thought
was interesting was that...

1349
01:16:59,320 --> 01:17:03,727
When the pilot yelled for help, I guess,
then a few of the pastors stormed

1350
01:17:03,810 --> 01:17:08,240
the cockpit. The terrorist was yanked
out of there by an Israeli plumber.

1351
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:12,834
I love it. Yeah. I don't think that's
like CIA plumber. I think that was,

1352
01:17:12,917 --> 01:17:16,258
I think it's like a real plumber.
Yeah. This guy has those,

1353
01:17:16,341 --> 01:17:20,147
those Israelis are tough.
I gotta say they're, they're quite tough.

1354
01:17:20,230 --> 01:17:23,913
[Speaker 4] The bravery to jump
in the cockpit like that. And then I just,

1355
01:17:23,997 --> 01:17:25,320
I mean, how the, the, the,

1356
01:17:25,900 --> 01:17:30,082
the fortuitous and I guess conspiracy
theorists are now losing their minds,

1357
01:17:30,165 --> 01:17:34,681
but, uh, To be able to have two pilots
who were able there and get this landed,

1358
01:17:34,764 --> 01:17:38,260
absolutely fantastic. And so glad
people's lives have been saved.

1359
01:17:39,070 --> 01:17:44,970
I'll save the false flag nonsense
and whatever for a conspiracy show.

1360
01:17:45,640 --> 01:17:48,907
somebody else can handle
that issue. Chamath, listen,

1361
01:17:48,990 --> 01:17:52,320
we've said a lot here about it.
Glad everybody's safe.

1362
01:17:52,404 --> 01:17:54,300
Any final thoughts as we wrap?

1363
01:17:54,850 --> 01:17:56,990
[Speaker 1] A Omani national...

1364
01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:00,760
stabbed an Indian pilot

1365
01:18:02,050 --> 01:18:05,010
and then try to down a plane...

1366
01:18:05,680 --> 01:18:06,720
full of Israelis.

1367
01:18:07,570 --> 01:18:08,770
That is what happened.

1368
01:18:10,360 --> 01:18:12,360
And any attempt...

1369
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:15,380
to try to

1370
01:18:16,510 --> 01:18:20,460
cover up any of those facts? is cowardly.

1371
01:18:22,600 --> 01:18:23,780
I've worked in Israel.

1372
01:18:25,480 --> 01:18:27,480
I've had some incredible memories there.

1373
01:18:27,820 --> 01:18:32,230
I think At some point, we all just
need to take a step back and realize...

1374
01:18:32,440 --> 01:18:36,048
What happened October 7th was horrible.
What's happened in Palestine,

1375
01:18:36,131 --> 01:18:36,964
also horrible.

1376
01:18:37,780 --> 01:18:42,583
But you cannot now see these kinds of
things and look past them because you care

1377
01:18:42,667 --> 01:18:45,660
more about the narrative
than what the facts are.

1378
01:18:46,300 --> 01:18:49,020
Those are 150, 170...

1379
01:18:49,990 --> 01:18:55,430
Ernest. Normal people, living lives.
Humans, yeah. Fathers, mothers.

1380
01:18:55,720 --> 01:18:59,360
Brothers, sisters, kids, they didn't
deserve to get plunged into the ground

1381
01:18:59,443 --> 01:19:00,276
and die.

1382
01:19:01,240 --> 01:19:02,073
So,

1383
01:19:02,560 --> 01:19:08,720
I think this idea that you can now
whitewash what happens, enough is enough.

1384
01:19:11,140 --> 01:19:14,534
And I think we need to find a way
to actually tell the truth for what things

1385
01:19:14,617 --> 01:19:15,450
are.

1386
01:19:16,630 --> 01:19:21,150
So I was really, really, really
disappointed in how the media handled it.

1387
01:19:23,290 --> 01:19:28,475
And I think it's dangerous. And I think
it's yet another demonstration that these

1388
01:19:28,558 --> 01:19:31,290
people have absolutely no moral authority.

1389
01:19:31,960 --> 01:19:35,960
left in society.
They're just pathetic, putrid

1390
01:19:36,280 --> 01:19:38,866
And by the way, they're coordinated.
When you see the words,

1391
01:19:38,949 --> 01:19:41,891
the same words over and over,
altercation, altercation, altercation,

1392
01:19:41,975 --> 01:19:45,060
it's very powerful. It means
that it starts from one place.

1393
01:19:46,660 --> 01:19:50,960
If you believe that you are reading
this stuff and you're getting the facts...

1394
01:19:51,070 --> 01:19:54,490
You're just not. And so it implies that
one guy did something wrong to the other

1395
01:19:54,574 --> 01:19:58,474
guy and they got in a fight. That's not
what happened. That's what it implies.

1396
01:20:00,530 --> 01:20:05,037
[Speaker 4] trying to have the most
charitable interpretation here, like, Why?

1397
01:20:05,120 --> 01:20:10,200
So in the moment, if you didn't
know what happened, but then...

1398
01:20:10,370 --> 01:20:14,020
After it happened, you would just very
easily be able to say potential terrorist

1399
01:20:14,103 --> 01:20:14,347
attack.

1400
01:20:14,430 --> 01:20:17,430
[Speaker 3] There was live
footage coming from the airplane.

1401
01:20:19,400 --> 01:20:20,217
[Speaker 4] Of course.

1402
01:20:20,300 --> 01:20:24,600
[Speaker 3] But how do you describe it
as a suicidal person? That's my point.

1403
01:20:24,740 --> 01:20:27,267
[Speaker 4] In the moment,
you could give them a...

1404
01:20:27,350 --> 01:20:29,836
hey, you don't know what's happening.
You want to be cautious here.

1405
01:20:29,920 --> 01:20:30,820
If it's a suicide,

1406
01:20:31,310 --> 01:20:34,606
If it is an actual fight or if
it's a terrorist attack, okay, fine.

1407
01:20:34,689 --> 01:20:38,439
I could have a little bit of room there
to be like, okay. But then after it,

1408
01:20:38,522 --> 01:20:41,750
like how could you not say this
is an apparent terrorist attack?

1409
01:20:42,050 --> 01:20:46,068
Or a mentally ill person. Those are
the two possibilities here. Period.

1410
01:20:46,151 --> 01:20:50,747
Full stop. And then you really have to get
into what what is the motivation here?

1411
01:20:50,830 --> 01:20:55,121
[Speaker 2] Yeah, look, I think the moral
principle here is that all attacks

1412
01:20:55,204 --> 01:20:59,092
on civilians are wrong. And that's
what this was. And it was, I mean,

1413
01:20:59,176 --> 01:21:01,190
pretty clearly an act of terrorism.

1414
01:21:01,430 --> 01:21:05,032
And regardless of who's doing it,
that's the thing we have to denounce.

1415
01:21:05,115 --> 01:21:08,561
That's right. Is even when there's
a military conflict taking place,

1416
01:21:08,644 --> 01:21:11,810
attacks on civilians are wrong.
Yeah. And that's a war crime.

1417
01:21:12,320 --> 01:21:15,800
And there's a lot of that happening.
So it's not the only case.

1418
01:21:15,883 --> 01:21:17,580
But all of that needs to stop.

1419
01:21:17,990 --> 01:21:24,580
[Speaker 5] All right, that's your All
In, episode 291 for October 2nd, 2026.

1420
01:21:24,663 --> 01:21:27,870
We'll see you all next week. Bye-bye.

1421
01:21:47,990 --> 01:21:54,990
[Speaker 7] Besties are gone.

1422
01:22:17,990 --> 01:22:24,990
[Speaker 1] I'm doing all in.