WEBVTT 00:00:00.400 --> 00:00:03.837 Welcome to the Huberman Lab podcast where we discuss science and 00:00:03.920 --> 00:00:08.520 science-based tools [music] for everyday life. 00:00:09.200 --> 00:00:13.437 I'm Andrew Huberman and I'm a professor of neurobiology and opthalmology at 00:00:13.520 --> 00:00:15.837 Stamford School of Medicine. Today my 00:00:15.920 --> 00:00:18.877 guest is Mark Andre. Mark Andre is a 00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:23.117 software engineer and an investor in technology companies. He co-founded and 00:00:23.200 --> 00:00:25.277 developed Mosaic which was one of the 00:00:25.360 --> 00:00:27.757 first widely used web browsers. He also 00:00:27.840 --> 00:00:30.237 co-founded and developed Netscape, which 00:00:30.320 --> 00:00:32.477 was one of the earliest widespread used 00:00:32.560 --> 00:00:37.517 web browsers. And he co-founded and is a general partner at Andre Horwitz, one of 00:00:37.600 --> 00:00:41.837 the most successful Silicon Valley venture capital firms. All of that is to 00:00:41.920 --> 00:00:46.477 say that Mark Andre is one of the most successful innovators and investors 00:00:46.560 --> 00:00:50.237 ever. I was extremely excited to record this episode with Mark for several 00:00:50.320 --> 00:00:54.957 reasons. First of all, he himself is an incredible innovator. Second of all, he 00:00:55.040 --> 00:00:59.197 has an uncanny ability to spot the innovators of the future. And third, 00:00:59.280 --> 00:01:03.357 Mark has shown over and over again the ability to understand how technologies 00:01:03.440 --> 00:01:07.437 not yet even developed are going to impact the way that humans interact at 00:01:07.520 --> 00:01:12.077 large. Our conversation starts off by discussing what makes for an exceptional 00:01:12.160 --> 00:01:15.837 innovator as well as what sorts of environmental conditions make for 00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:19.917 exceptional innovation and creativity more generally. In that context, we talk 00:01:20.000 --> 00:01:24.157 about risk-taking. Not just in terms of risk-taking in one's profession, but 00:01:24.240 --> 00:01:28.237 about how some people, not all, but how some people who are risk-takers and 00:01:28.320 --> 00:01:32.477 innovators in the context of their work also seem to take a lot of risks in 00:01:32.560 --> 00:01:36.557 their personal life and some of the consequences that can bring. Then we 00:01:36.640 --> 00:01:40.637 discuss some of the most transformative technologies that are now emerging such 00:01:40.720 --> 00:01:42.797 as novel approaches to developing clean 00:01:42.880 --> 00:01:45.677 energy as well as AI or artificial 00:01:45.760 --> 00:01:48.397 intelligence. With respect to AI, Mark 00:01:48.480 --> 00:01:50.877 shares his views as to why AI is likely 00:01:50.960 --> 00:01:55.517 to greatly improve human experience. And we discuss the multiple roles that AI is 00:01:55.600 --> 00:01:59.677 very likely to have in all of our lives in the near future. Mark explains how 00:01:59.760 --> 00:02:01.597 not too long from now, all of us are 00:02:01.680 --> 00:02:04.637 very likely to have AI assistance. For 00:02:04.720 --> 00:02:08.957 instance, assistants that give us highly informed health advice, highly informed 00:02:09.040 --> 00:02:13.597 psychological advice. Indeed, it is very likely that all of us will soon have AI 00:02:13.680 --> 00:02:17.757 assistants that govern most if not all of our daily decisions. And Mark 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:20.477 explains how if done correctly, this can 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:25.037 be a tremendously positive addition to our life. In doing so, Mark provides a 00:02:25.120 --> 00:02:27.357 stark counterargument for those that 00:02:27.440 --> 00:02:32.077 argue that AI is going to diminish human experience. So, if you're hearing about 00:02:32.160 --> 00:02:36.637 and or concerned about the ways that AI is likely to destroy us, today you are 00:02:36.720 --> 00:02:40.557 going to hear about the many different ways that AI technologies now in 00:02:40.640 --> 00:02:44.717 development are likely to enhance our human experience at every level. What 00:02:44.800 --> 00:02:48.237 you'll soon find is that while today's discussion does center around technology 00:02:48.320 --> 00:02:52.397 and technology development, it is really a discussion about human beings and 00:02:52.480 --> 00:02:55.917 human psychology. So whether you have an interest in technology development 00:02:56.000 --> 00:03:00.717 and/or AI, I'm certain that you'll find today's discussion to be an important 00:03:00.800 --> 00:03:05.277 and highly lucid view into what will soon be the future that we all live in. 00:03:05.360 --> 00:03:08.637 Before we begin, I'd like to emphasize that this podcast is separate from my 00:03:08.720 --> 00:03:10.397 teaching and research roles at Stanford. 00:03:10.480 --> 00:03:13.917 It is however part of my desire and effort to bring zerocost to consumer 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:17.677 information about science and science related tools to the general public. In 00:03:17.760 --> 00:03:21.277 keeping with that theme, I'd like to thank the sponsors of today's podcast. 00:03:21.360 --> 00:03:25.517 And now for my discussion with Mark Andre. Mark, welcome. 00:03:25.600 --> 00:03:28.557 >> Hey, thank you. >> Delighted to have you here and have so 00:03:28.640 --> 00:03:30.797 many questions for you about innovation, 00:03:30.880 --> 00:03:34.157 AI, your view of the landscape of tech 00:03:34.240 --> 00:03:37.837 and humanity in general. I want to start 00:03:37.920 --> 00:03:40.317 off by talking about innovation from 00:03:40.400 --> 00:03:44.877 three different perspectives. There's the inner game, so to speak, or 00:03:44.960 --> 00:03:47.117 the psychology of the innovator or 00:03:47.200 --> 00:03:50.077 innovators. things like their propensity 00:03:50.160 --> 00:03:53.517 for engaging in conflict or not, their 00:03:53.600 --> 00:03:55.277 propensity for having a dream or a 00:03:55.360 --> 00:03:58.077 vision, and in particular their 00:03:58.160 --> 00:04:02.317 innovation as it relates to some psychological 00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:06.877 trait or expression. So, we'll get to that in a moment. The second component 00:04:06.960 --> 00:04:10.717 that I'm curious about is the outer landscape around innovators who they 00:04:10.800 --> 00:04:15.677 place them themselves with uh the sorts of choices that they make and also the 00:04:15.760 --> 00:04:19.037 sorts of personal relationships that they might have or not have. And then 00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:23.677 the last component is this notion of the larger landscape that they happen to 00:04:23.760 --> 00:04:25.117 find themselves in. What time in 00:04:25.200 --> 00:04:28.317 history? Uh what's the geography? Bay 00:04:28.400 --> 00:04:31.037 Area, New York, Dubai, etc. 00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:34.397 >> Sure. So to start off, is there a common 00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:39.197 trait of innovators that you think is 00:04:39.280 --> 00:04:43.837 absolutely essential as a seed uh to creating things that are really 00:04:43.920 --> 00:04:47.277 impactful? >> Yeah. So I'm not a psychologist, but 00:04:47.360 --> 00:04:50.477 I've picked up some of the concepts uh some of the uh some of the terms and so 00:04:50.560 --> 00:04:53.837 I've it was a great moment of delight in my life when I learned about the big 00:04:53.920 --> 00:04:57.037 five personality traits because I was like, "Aha, there's a way to actually 00:04:57.120 --> 00:05:00.717 describe the answer to this question in at least reasonably scientific terms." 00:05:00.800 --> 00:05:03.277 Um, and so I I think what you're looking for when you're when you're talking 00:05:03.360 --> 00:05:06.077 about real innovators, like people who actually do really creative breakthrough 00:05:06.160 --> 00:05:09.437 work, I think you're talking about a couple things. So, one is very high in 00:05:09.520 --> 00:05:10.797 what's called trade openness, right? 00:05:10.880 --> 00:05:13.757 Which is one of the big one of the big five. Um, which is basically just like 00:05:13.840 --> 00:05:18.477 flat out open to new ideas. Um, and of course the the nature of trade openness 00:05:18.560 --> 00:05:21.117 is trade openness means you're not just open to new ideas in one category. 00:05:21.200 --> 00:05:24.077 You're open to many different kinds of new ideas. And so we we might talk about 00:05:24.160 --> 00:05:27.277 the fact that a lot of innovators also are very creative people in other 00:05:27.360 --> 00:05:30.877 aspects of their lives, right? even outside of uh their their their specific 00:05:30.960 --> 00:05:32.877 creative domain. So that's important. 00:05:32.960 --> 00:05:35.437 But of course, just being open is not sufficient because if you're just open, 00:05:35.520 --> 00:05:37.917 you could just be curious and explore, right? And spend your entire life 00:05:38.000 --> 00:05:40.477 reading and and doing, you know, talking to people and never actually create 00:05:40.560 --> 00:05:43.677 something. So you also need um a couple other things. You need a high level of 00:05:43.760 --> 00:05:46.717 conscientiousness, which is another one of the big five. You need somebody who's 00:05:46.800 --> 00:05:50.397 really willing to apply themselves. And in our world, typically over a period of 00:05:50.480 --> 00:05:53.277 many years, right, to be able to to to accomplish something, great. You know, 00:05:53.360 --> 00:05:57.197 they they typically work very hard. um that often gets obscured because the 00:05:57.280 --> 00:05:59.677 stories that end up getting told about these people are, you know, it's just 00:05:59.760 --> 00:06:02.157 like there's this kid and he just had this idea and it was like a stroke of 00:06:02.240 --> 00:06:05.037 genius and it was like a moment in time and you know it's just like oh he was so 00:06:05.120 --> 00:06:08.397 lucky and it's like no like for most of these people it's years and years and 00:06:08.480 --> 00:06:11.917 years of of applied effort and so you need you need somebody with like an 00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:15.437 extreme you know basically willingness to defer gratification and really apply 00:06:15.520 --> 00:06:19.837 themselves to a specific thing for a long time. Um, and of course this is why 00:06:19.920 --> 00:06:22.077 there aren't very many of these people is there aren't many people who are high 00:06:22.160 --> 00:06:24.877 in openness and high in conscientiousness because to a certain 00:06:24.960 --> 00:06:27.917 extent they're they're opposed right traits. And so you need somebody who has 00:06:28.000 --> 00:06:32.237 both of those. Third is you need somebody high in disagreeableness which 00:06:32.320 --> 00:06:35.837 is the third of the big five. Um so you need somebody who's just like basically 00:06:35.920 --> 00:06:39.757 ordinary. Uh right? Because if they're not ordinary then they'll be talked out 00:06:39.840 --> 00:06:42.397 of their ideas by people who will be like oh well that you know because the 00:06:42.480 --> 00:06:45.357 reaction most people have no ideas is oh that's dumb. [snorts] Um, and so 00:06:45.440 --> 00:06:48.957 somebody who's too agreeable will will be easily dissuaded to to not pursue, 00:06:49.040 --> 00:06:51.757 you know, not pulling the thread anymore. So you need somebody highly 00:06:51.840 --> 00:06:54.797 disagreeable. Again, the nature of disagreeableness is they tend to be 00:06:54.880 --> 00:06:57.517 disagreeable disagreeable about everything, right? So they tend to be 00:06:57.600 --> 00:07:01.597 these very sort of iconoclastic, you know, kind of renegade characters. Um, 00:07:01.680 --> 00:07:04.317 and then there's just a table stakes component, which is they just also need 00:07:04.400 --> 00:07:07.277 to be high IQ, right? They just they just need to be really smart because 00:07:07.360 --> 00:07:10.717 it's just it's hard to innovate in any category if you can't synthesize large 00:07:10.800 --> 00:07:15.197 amounts of information quickly. Um, and so those are four like basically like 00:07:15.280 --> 00:07:19.437 high spikes, you know, very rare traits that basically have to uh have to come 00:07:19.520 --> 00:07:22.877 together. Um, you you could probably also say they they probably at some 00:07:22.960 --> 00:07:25.997 point need to be relatively low on neuroticism, which is another of the big 00:07:26.080 --> 00:07:28.557 five because if they're too neurotic, they probably can't handle the stress, 00:07:28.640 --> 00:07:31.437 right? So So it's kind of this this this dial in there. And then of course, if 00:07:31.520 --> 00:07:34.397 you're if you're if you're into like this the sort of science of the big 00:07:34.480 --> 00:07:38.237 five, basically, you know, these are all people who are on like the far out kind 00:07:38.320 --> 00:07:40.957 of point on the on the normal distribution across all these traits. 00:07:41.040 --> 00:07:44.397 And and then that just gets you to I think the the sort of hardest topic of 00:07:44.480 --> 00:07:47.277 all around this this this whole concept which is just there are very few of 00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:50.877 these people. >> Do you think they're born with these traits? 00:07:50.960 --> 00:07:53.917 >> Yeah. Well, so the they're born with the traits and then and then of course the 00:07:54.000 --> 00:07:56.797 traits are not, you know, genetics are not destiny. And so that the the traits 00:07:56.880 --> 00:07:59.677 are not deterministic in the sense of that, you know, just because they have 00:07:59.760 --> 00:08:02.077 those personality traits doesn't mean they're they're going to, you know, 00:08:02.160 --> 00:08:05.917 deliver great creativity. But like they need to have those properties because 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:08.157 otherwise they're just not either going to be able to do the work or they're not 00:08:08.240 --> 00:08:11.437 going to enjoy it, right? I mean, look, a lot of these people are highly 00:08:11.520 --> 00:08:15.437 capable, competent people. You know, it's very easy for them to get like 00:08:15.520 --> 00:08:18.397 high-paying jobs in traditional institutions and, you know, get lots of, 00:08:18.480 --> 00:08:21.277 you know, traditional awards and, you know, end up with big paychecks and, you 00:08:21.360 --> 00:08:24.397 know, there there's a lot of people at, you know, big institutions that we we 00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:27.517 know you and I know well and I I deal with many of these where people get paid 00:08:27.600 --> 00:08:30.157 a lot of money and they get a lot of respect and they go for 20 years and 00:08:30.240 --> 00:08:32.957 it's great and they never create any [laughter] anything new, right? And so 00:08:33.040 --> 00:08:35.357 there's there's a lot of >> administrators. Well, a lot of them 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:38.877 Yeah. a lot of lot of them end up in administrative jobs. Um, and that's 00:08:38.960 --> 00:08:41.437 fine. That's good. The world needs, you know, the world needs that also, right? 00:08:41.520 --> 00:08:43.837 The the the innovators can't run everything because everything, you know, 00:08:43.920 --> 00:08:46.237 the the rate of change would be too high. Society, I think, probably 00:08:46.320 --> 00:08:49.037 wouldn't be able to handle it. So, you need some people who are on the other 00:08:49.120 --> 00:08:52.077 side who are going to kind of keep the lights on and keep things running. Um, 00:08:52.160 --> 00:08:55.037 but but there is this decision that people have to make, which is, okay, if 00:08:55.120 --> 00:08:58.957 I have the sort of latent capability to do this, is this actually what I want to 00:08:59.040 --> 00:09:02.557 spend my life doing? And do I want to go through the stress and the pain and the 00:09:02.640 --> 00:09:06.397 trauma, right, and the anxiety, right, and the risk of failure, right? Right. 00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:09.437 And so do do I really want to once in a while you run into somebody who's just 00:09:09.520 --> 00:09:12.477 like can't do it any other way. Like they they just have to. 00:09:12.560 --> 00:09:15.037 >> Who's an example of that? >> I mean Elon Elon's the you know the 00:09:15.120 --> 00:09:18.477 paramount example of our time. And he and I I bring him up in part because 00:09:18.560 --> 00:09:21.837 he's such an obvious example but in part because he's talked about this um in in 00:09:21.920 --> 00:09:25.277 in in interviews where he he basically says like he's like I can't turn it off. 00:09:25.360 --> 00:09:29.997 Like the ideas come I have to pursue them, right? It's why he's like running 00:09:30.080 --> 00:09:33.837 five companies at the same time and like working on a sixth, right? Um uh is just 00:09:33.920 --> 00:09:36.877 like he can't he can't turn it off, you know? Look, there's a lot of other 00:09:36.960 --> 00:09:40.237 people who are probably had the capability to do it who ended up talking 00:09:40.320 --> 00:09:43.597 themselves into or you know, whatever events conspired to put them in a 00:09:43.680 --> 00:09:45.197 position where they did something else. 00:09:45.280 --> 00:09:47.837 Um, you know, obviously there are people who try to be creative who just don't 00:09:47.920 --> 00:09:51.277 have the the capability. And so there there's some ven diagram there of 00:09:51.360 --> 00:09:55.677 determinism through traits, but also choices in life. And then also, of 00:09:55.760 --> 00:09:58.877 course, the situation in which they're born, the context within which they grow 00:09:58.960 --> 00:10:02.797 up, the culture, right? What their parents expect of them and and so forth. 00:10:02.880 --> 00:10:05.677 And so you have to, you know, to kind of get all the way through this, you have 00:10:05.760 --> 00:10:08.637 to thread all these all these needles kind of at the same time. 00:10:08.720 --> 00:10:12.957 >> Do you think there are folks out there that meet these criteria who are 00:10:13.040 --> 00:10:17.587 disagreeable but that can feain agreeableness? You know, that can 00:10:17.670 --> 00:10:19.837 [laughter] >> for those just listening, Mark just 00:10:19.920 --> 00:10:22.637 raised his right hand. Um um in other 00:10:22.720 --> 00:10:26.877 words that they can sort of um phrase that comes to mind maybe because I can 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:31.277 relate to a little bit. they um sneak up through the system, meaning they behave 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:34.157 ethically as it relates to the requirements of the system. They're not 00:10:34.240 --> 00:10:37.437 breaking laws or breaking rules. In fact, quite the opposite. They're paying 00:10:37.520 --> 00:10:40.957 attention to the rules and following the rules until they get to a place where 00:10:41.040 --> 00:10:46.237 being disagreeable feels less threatening to their overall sense of 00:10:46.320 --> 00:10:49.117 security. >> Yeah. I mean, look, the really highly 00:10:49.200 --> 00:10:52.557 competent people don't have to break laws, right? Like it's it's the there 00:10:52.640 --> 00:10:56.157 was this there was this there was this myth, you know, that sort of happened 00:10:56.240 --> 00:10:58.797 around the movie The Godfather. And then there was this character My Lansky, you 00:10:58.880 --> 00:11:01.597 know, who's like ran basically the mafia, you know, 50, 60, 70 years ago. 00:11:01.680 --> 00:11:04.157 And there was this there's this great line of like, well, my Lansky had only 00:11:04.240 --> 00:11:06.557 like applied himself to running General Motors, he would have been the best CEO 00:11:06.640 --> 00:11:10.077 of all time. It's like, no, not really, right? Like the the people who are like 00:11:10.160 --> 00:11:12.797 great at running big companies, they don't have to they don't have to be mob 00:11:12.880 --> 00:11:15.037 bosses. They don't have to like break laws. They can, you know, they can they 00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:18.157 can do they can work they're they're smart and sophisticated enough to be 00:11:18.240 --> 00:11:20.877 able to work inside the system. you know, they don't need to take the easy 00:11:20.960 --> 00:11:23.357 out. So, I I don't think there's any implication that they have to, you know, 00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:25.437 that they have to they have to break laws. That said, they have to break 00:11:25.520 --> 00:11:29.517 norms, right? And and and specifically the the thing this is probably the thing 00:11:29.600 --> 00:11:33.197 that gets missed the most because the process of the process of innovating, 00:11:33.280 --> 00:11:36.637 the process of creating something new, like once it works, like the stories get 00:11:36.720 --> 00:11:41.037 retconed, um, as they say, um, in comic books. So, the stories get adapted to 00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:43.597 where it's like it was inevitable all along. You know, everybody always knew 00:11:43.680 --> 00:11:47.117 that this was a good idea. You know, the person has won all these awards. Society 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:50.957 embraced them. And it's if if invariably if you if you were with them when that 00:11:51.040 --> 00:11:53.437 was when they were actually doing the work or if you actually get a couple 00:11:53.520 --> 00:11:55.837 drinks into them and talk to them about it, it'll be like no that's not how it 00:11:55.920 --> 00:12:00.237 happened at all. They faced a wall of skepticism just like a wall of basically 00:12:00.320 --> 00:12:01.917 social, you know, essentially denial. 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:04.957 No, this is not going to work. No, I'm not going to join your lab. No, I'm not 00:12:05.040 --> 00:12:07.757 going to come work for your company. No, I'm not going to buy your product, 00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:11.437 right? No, I'm not going to meet with you. And so they they they they get just 00:12:11.520 --> 00:12:13.437 like tremendous social resistance. 00:12:13.520 --> 00:12:16.237 they're they're they're not getting positive feedback from their from from 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:19.597 their social network the way that more agreeable people need to have. Right? 00:12:19.680 --> 00:12:21.757 And this is why this is why agreeableness is a problem for 00:12:21.840 --> 00:12:23.757 innovation. If if you're agreeable, you're going to listen to the people 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:27.517 around you. They're going to tell you that new ideas are stupid, right? End of 00:12:27.600 --> 00:12:30.557 story. You're you're not going to proceed. Um and so I I would put it more 00:12:30.640 --> 00:12:33.517 on like they need to be able to deal with they need to be able to deal with 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:37.677 social discomfort to the level of ostracism. Um or at some point they're 00:12:37.760 --> 00:12:40.317 going to get shaken out and they're just going to quit. Do you think that people 00:12:40.400 --> 00:12:42.877 that meet these criteria do best by 00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:44.477 banding with others that meet these 00:12:44.560 --> 00:12:47.837 criteria early or is it important that 00:12:47.920 --> 00:12:50.637 they form this deep sense of self like 00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:55.197 the ability to cry oneself to sleep at night or you know lie in the fetal 00:12:55.280 --> 00:12:58.477 position worrying that things aren't going to work out and then still get up 00:12:58.560 --> 00:13:00.557 the next morning and get right back out there. 00:13:00.640 --> 00:13:04.557 >> Right. So Sean Parker has the best line by the way on on on uh on this. He says, 00:13:04.640 --> 00:13:06.957 uh, you know, being a being an entrepreneur, being a creator is like, 00:13:07.040 --> 00:13:09.437 uh, you know, getting punched in the face like over and over again. He said, 00:13:09.520 --> 00:13:13.037 eventually you start to like the taste of your own blood. And I love that line 00:13:13.120 --> 00:13:15.757 because it makes everybody like massively uncomfortable, right? But it 00:13:15.840 --> 00:13:19.117 gives you a sense of like how basically painful the process is. If you talk to 00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:21.837 any entrepreneur, you know, who's been through it about that, they're like, 00:13:21.920 --> 00:13:25.117 "Oh, yeah, that's exactly that's exactly what it's like." So, so, so there is 00:13:25.200 --> 00:13:28.077 this there is a big individual component to it. But look, but look, it can be 00:13:28.160 --> 00:13:31.837 very lonely, right? Um and it'd be especially you know very hard I think to 00:13:31.920 --> 00:13:34.637 do this if if nobody around you is trying to do anything even remotely 00:13:34.720 --> 00:13:37.677 similar right and if you're getting just universally negative responses like I 00:13:37.760 --> 00:13:40.637 you know very few people I think have very few people have the ego strength to 00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:44.397 be able to survive that for years. So I do think there's a huge advantage and 00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:45.917 and this is why you you do see clusters. 00:13:46.000 --> 00:13:49.197 There's a huge advantage to clustering, right? And so you have and and you know 00:13:49.280 --> 00:13:51.597 throughout history you've had this clustering effect, right? You have, you 00:13:51.680 --> 00:13:54.557 know, clustering of the great artists and sculptors in Renaissance Florence. 00:13:54.640 --> 00:13:57.277 You know, you had the clustering of the philosophers of Greece. You had the 00:13:57.360 --> 00:13:59.837 clustering of tech people in Silicon Valley. You have the clustering of 00:13:59.920 --> 00:14:03.517 creative, you know, arts, movie, TV people in Los Angeles, right? And so 00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:06.557 forth and so on, you know, for, you know, there's always a scene, right? 00:14:06.640 --> 00:14:09.357 There's there's there's always like a nexus and a place where where people 00:14:09.440 --> 00:14:12.957 come together, um, you know, for for these kinds of things. So generally 00:14:13.040 --> 00:14:15.357 speaking, like if somebody wants to work in tech and innovate in tech, they're 00:14:15.440 --> 00:14:18.397 going to be much better off being around a lot of people who are trying to do 00:14:18.480 --> 00:14:21.917 that kind of thing than they are in a place where nobody else is doing it. 00:14:22.000 --> 00:14:25.277 Having said that, the clustering has it can have downsides. It can have side 00:14:25.360 --> 00:14:28.397 effects and and you put any group of people together and you do start to get 00:14:28.480 --> 00:14:32.237 group think even among people who are individually very disagreeable. Um and 00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:36.317 so these same clusters where you get these very idiosyncratic people, they do 00:14:36.400 --> 00:14:39.837 have fads and trends just like every place else, right? And so they get they 00:14:39.920 --> 00:14:43.837 get they get wrapped up in their own social dynamics. And the good news is 00:14:43.920 --> 00:14:47.197 the social dynamic in those places is usually very forward-looking, right? Um 00:14:47.280 --> 00:14:50.077 and so it's usually it's usually like, you know, it's I don't know it's like a 00:14:50.160 --> 00:14:53.837 herd of iconoclass looking for the next big thing, right? So iconoclass looking 00:14:53.920 --> 00:14:57.197 for the next big thing. That's good. The herd part, right? That's what you got to 00:14:57.280 --> 00:14:59.597 be careful of. So even when you're in one of these environments, you have to 00:14:59.680 --> 00:15:01.997 be careful that you're not getting sucked into the group think too much. 00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:05.197 When you say group think, do you mean excessive friction due to pressure 00:15:05.280 --> 00:15:08.477 testing each other's ideas to the point where things just don't move forward or 00:15:08.560 --> 00:15:12.637 are you talking about group think where people start to form a consensus or the 00:15:12.720 --> 00:15:14.797 um self-belief that gosh we are so 00:15:14.880 --> 00:15:19.677 strong because we are so different. Um what do you can we better define group 00:15:19.760 --> 00:15:24.157 think? >> It's actually less either one of those things both happen. Those are good. 00:15:24.240 --> 00:15:26.797 Those are good. Uh the part of group think I'm talking about is just like we 00:15:26.880 --> 00:15:31.037 all we all basically zero in we we just end up zeroing in on the same ideas, 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:34.877 right? In Hollywood there's this classic thing. It's like there there are years 00:15:34.960 --> 00:15:38.237 where all of a sudden there's like a lot of volcano movies. It's like why are 00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:40.637 there all these volcano movies and it's just like I don't there was just 00:15:40.720 --> 00:15:43.517 something in the just right there was just something in the air you know look 00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:46.157 tech Silicon Valley has this you know there there are moments in time where 00:15:46.240 --> 00:15:49.277 you you'll have these it's like the old thing like what's the difference between 00:15:49.360 --> 00:15:52.317 a fad and a trend right? you know the fed fed is the trend that doesn't last 00:15:52.400 --> 00:15:56.157 right um and so you know Silicon Valley is subject to fads and both fads and 00:15:56.240 --> 00:15:59.997 trends just like any place else right in other words you take smart disagreeable 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:03.197 people you cluster them together they will act like a herd right they they 00:16:03.280 --> 00:16:07.197 will end up thinking the same things unless they try very hard not to 00:16:07.280 --> 00:16:08.877 >> you've talked about these personality 00:16:08.960 --> 00:16:12.397 traits of great innovators before um and 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:15.037 we're talking about them now you invest 00:16:15.120 --> 00:16:19.437 in innovators you try and identify them and you are one so you can recognize 00:16:19.520 --> 00:16:22.317 these traits Here I'm making the presumption that you have these traits. 00:16:22.400 --> 00:16:24.797 Indeed you do. Um we'll just get that 00:16:24.880 --> 00:16:27.197 out of the way. Um 00:16:27.280 --> 00:16:29.917 have you observed people trying to feain 00:16:30.000 --> 00:16:32.637 these traits? Um and are there any 00:16:32.720 --> 00:16:35.757 specific questions or um behaviors that 00:16:35.840 --> 00:16:39.277 are a giveaway? Um that they're 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:41.597 pretending to be the young Steve Jobs or 00:16:41.680 --> 00:16:43.677 that they're pretending to be the the 00:16:43.760 --> 00:16:46.557 young Henry Ford. um pick your list of 00:16:46.640 --> 00:16:51.597 other other names that qualify as uh authentic legitimate innovators. Um we 00:16:51.680 --> 00:16:54.717 won't name names of people who have tried to disguise themselves as true 00:16:54.800 --> 00:16:57.677 innovators, but what are some of the um 00:16:57.760 --> 00:17:01.917 uh the the litmus tests and uh I realize here that um we don't want you to give 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:05.037 these away to the point where they're uh lose their potency. But if you could 00:17:05.120 --> 00:17:09.517 share a few of those good we're actually pretty open book on this. So um so yeah, 00:17:09.600 --> 00:17:12.477 so so first of all, yes. So there are people who definitely try to like come 00:17:12.560 --> 00:17:14.797 in and basically present as being something that they're not and they've 00:17:14.880 --> 00:17:16.717 you know like they've read all the books they will have listened to this 00:17:16.800 --> 00:17:19.277 interview right they they will they you know they study everything and they they 00:17:19.360 --> 00:17:22.797 construct a facade um and they come in and present as something they're not I 00:17:22.880 --> 00:17:27.277 would say the amount of that varies exactly correlated to the NASDAQ um 00:17:27.360 --> 00:17:30.797 [laughter] right and so when stock prices are super 00:17:30.880 --> 00:17:33.677 low like you actually get the opposite when stock prices are super low people 00:17:33.760 --> 00:17:36.237 get too demoralized and people who should be doing it basically give up 00:17:36.320 --> 00:17:38.797 because they just think that whatever whatever the industry is over the trend 00:17:38.880 --> 00:17:41.757 is over whatever it's all hopeless um and So you get this flushing thing. So 00:17:41.840 --> 00:17:44.797 nobody ever shows up at a stock market low, right? And says like, "I'm the new 00:17:44.880 --> 00:17:46.237 I'm the new I'm the new next big thing." 00:17:46.320 --> 00:17:50.717 Um uh and and and does and and doesn't really want to do it because because 00:17:50.800 --> 00:17:53.677 there are higher status the kinds of people who do the thing that you're 00:17:53.760 --> 00:17:55.597 talking about, they're they're fundamentally oriented for social 00:17:55.680 --> 00:17:58.477 status. They're they're trying they're they're trying to get the social status 00:17:58.560 --> 00:18:01.277 without actually without actually the substance. And there are always other 00:18:01.360 --> 00:18:04.157 places to go get social status. So, so 00:18:04.240 --> 00:18:07.437 after 2000 the joke was um so you know 00:18:07.520 --> 00:18:11.357 when I got to Silicon Valley in '93 94 the valley was dead. We can talk about 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:15.197 that. By 98 it was roaring and you had a lot of these people showing up who were 00:18:15.280 --> 00:18:17.997 you bas you basically had a lot of a lot of people showing up with with such kind 00:18:18.080 --> 00:18:19.997 of stories. 2000 the market crash. By 00:18:20.080 --> 00:18:22.957 2001 the joke was that um there were 00:18:23.040 --> 00:18:26.317 these terms B toC and B2B and in 1998 00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:29.997 they meant B TOC meant um business to consumer and B2B meant business to 00:18:30.080 --> 00:18:32.477 business which is the two different kinds of business models for internet 00:18:32.560 --> 00:18:35.437 companies. By 2001, uh, B to B2B meant 00:18:35.520 --> 00:18:39.997 back to banking. Uh, and B TOC meant back to consulting, right? Which is the 00:18:40.080 --> 00:18:42.957 high status people who the people oriented to status who showed up to be 00:18:43.040 --> 00:18:44.637 in tech. We're like, "Yeah, screw it." 00:18:44.720 --> 00:18:46.157 Like, "This is over. Stick a fork in it. 00:18:46.240 --> 00:18:49.197 I'm going to go back to, you know, Goldman Sachs or go back to Mckenzie, 00:18:49.280 --> 00:18:51.757 you know, where I can where I can where I can be high status." And so you you 00:18:51.840 --> 00:18:55.837 you get this flushing kind of effect that happens in a in a downturn. Um that 00:18:55.920 --> 00:18:59.757 said on a on a in a big upswing yeah you you get you get a lot of you get a lot 00:18:59.840 --> 00:19:02.557 of people showing up with with a lot of um you know with a lot of uh you know 00:19:02.640 --> 00:19:06.637 kind of let's say public persona without the substance to back it up. Um so the 00:19:06.720 --> 00:19:09.677 way we stress that I can actually say exactly how we test for this which 00:19:09.760 --> 00:19:13.517 because it's it the test exactly addresses the issue in a way that is 00:19:13.600 --> 00:19:16.877 impossible to fake. Um and and it's actually this it's actually the same way 00:19:16.960 --> 00:19:20.157 homicide detectives try to find out if you if you if you're if you actually if 00:19:20.240 --> 00:19:22.317 you're innocent or whether you've killed somebody. It's the same it's the same 00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:27.357 tactic. um which is you you ask increasingly detailed questions. Um, 00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:30.477 right. And so, you know, the way a homicide cop does this is, you know, 00:19:30.560 --> 00:19:33.357 what were you doing last night? You know, oh, I was at a movie. Well, which 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:37.517 movie? You know, d which theater, [snorts] you know, okay, which seat did 00:19:37.600 --> 00:19:40.797 you sit in? You know, okay, what was the end of the movie? [laughter] 00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:43.997 Right? Like, right. And you you ask increasingly detailed questions and 00:19:44.080 --> 00:19:47.117 people have trouble at some point people have trouble making up and things just 00:19:47.200 --> 00:19:50.637 fuzz into just kind of obvious [__] And basically fake founders basically 00:19:50.720 --> 00:19:53.837 have the same problem. They have a con they're able to relay a conceptual 00:19:53.920 --> 00:19:56.637 theory of what they're doing that they've kind of engineered. Um, but as 00:19:56.720 --> 00:20:00.637 they get into the details, it just it just fuzzes out. Whereas the the the 00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:03.837 true people that you want to back that can do it, basically what you find is 00:20:03.920 --> 00:20:07.357 they've spent five or 10 or 20 years obsessing on the details of whatever it 00:20:07.440 --> 00:20:10.397 is they're about to do. And they're so deep in the details that they know so 00:20:10.480 --> 00:20:12.157 much more about it than you ever will. 00:20:12.240 --> 00:20:15.597 And in fact, the best possible reaction is when they get mad, right? Um, which 00:20:15.680 --> 00:20:18.557 is also what the homicide cops say, right? What you actually want is you 00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:21.357 actually want the you basically want the emotional response of like, I can't 00:20:21.440 --> 00:20:25.197 believe that you're asking me questions this detailed and specific and picky. 00:20:25.280 --> 00:20:27.757 and [snorts] they kind of figure out what you're doing. Um, and then they get 00:20:27.840 --> 00:20:31.837 upset. Like that's good. That's perfect, right? But but but they they have, you 00:20:31.920 --> 00:20:34.397 know, but then they have to proven themselves in in the sense of like they 00:20:34.480 --> 00:20:37.437 have to be able to answer the questions in in in great detail. 00:20:37.520 --> 00:20:40.077 >> Do you think that people that are able to answer those questions in great 00:20:40.160 --> 00:20:42.317 detail have actually taken the time to 00:20:42.400 --> 00:20:44.717 systematically think through the ifands? 00:20:44.800 --> 00:20:48.957 >> Yeah. of all the possible implications of what they're going to do and they 00:20:49.040 --> 00:20:50.557 have a specific vision in mind of how 00:20:50.640 --> 00:20:53.757 things need to turn out or will turn out 00:20:53.840 --> 00:20:56.397 or do you think that um they have a a 00:20:56.480 --> 00:21:01.197 vision and it's a no matter what it will work out because the world will sort of 00:21:01.280 --> 00:21:04.157 bend around it. I mean in other words do you think that they place their vision 00:21:04.240 --> 00:21:08.957 in context or they simply have a vision and they have that tunnel vision of that 00:21:09.040 --> 00:21:13.517 thing and that's going to be it. Let's use you for an example um with Netscape. 00:21:13.600 --> 00:21:15.517 I mean, that's how I first came to know 00:21:15.600 --> 00:21:18.877 your name. Um, when you were conceiving 00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:21.597 Netscape, did you think, okay, there's 00:21:21.680 --> 00:21:24.797 this search engine and this browser and 00:21:24.880 --> 00:21:26.957 and it's going to be this thing that 00:21:27.040 --> 00:21:28.877 looks this way and works this way and 00:21:28.960 --> 00:21:32.637 feels this way. Um, did you think that 00:21:32.720 --> 00:21:36.397 and also think about, you know, that there was going to be a gallery of other 00:21:36.480 --> 00:21:39.517 search engines and it would fit into that landscape of other search engines 00:21:39.600 --> 00:21:44.077 or were you just projecting your vision of this thing as this unique um and 00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:47.677 special um brainchild? >> Well, I'm let me give the general answer 00:21:47.760 --> 00:21:50.317 and then we can talk about the specific example. So, the general answer is what 00:21:50.400 --> 00:21:53.917 what entre entrepreneurship, creativity, innovation is what economists call 00:21:54.000 --> 00:21:57.357 decision-making under uncertainty, right? And so, both parts are important. 00:21:57.440 --> 00:21:59.517 decision-m like you're going to make a ton of decisions because you have to 00:21:59.600 --> 00:22:02.797 decide what to do, what not to do and then uncertainty which is like the 00:22:02.880 --> 00:22:06.477 world's a complicated place right and in mathematical terms the world is a 00:22:06.560 --> 00:22:11.117 complex adaptive system with feedback loops and like it's really I mean it's 00:22:11.200 --> 00:22:14.797 it's extreme you know Isaac Azimov wrote the you know that in his novels he he 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:17.357 wrote about this field called psycho history right which is the idea that 00:22:17.440 --> 00:22:20.157 there's like a supercomputer that can predict the future of like human affairs 00:22:20.240 --> 00:22:24.877 right and it's like we don't have that >> not [laughter] yet not yet we'll 00:22:24.960 --> 00:22:27.357 >> get to that later we certainly don't have that 00:22:27.440 --> 00:22:31.837 Um and so you're just dealing, you know, military uh commanders call this the fog 00:22:31.920 --> 00:22:34.477 of war, right? You're you're just dealing with a situation where the 00:22:34.560 --> 00:22:37.997 number of variables are just off the charts. It's all these other people, 00:22:38.080 --> 00:22:40.877 right, who are inherently unpredictable making all these decisions in different 00:22:40.960 --> 00:22:43.837 directions and then the whole system is combinatorial, which is these people are 00:22:43.920 --> 00:22:48.317 colliding with each other, influencing the decisions. And so I mean, look, the 00:22:48.400 --> 00:22:51.117 most straightforward kind of way to think about this is it's just it's 00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:53.517 amazing. Like anybody who believes in economic central planning, it always 00:22:53.600 --> 00:22:56.797 blows my mind because it's like it's just like try opening a restaurant. 00:22:56.880 --> 00:23:01.677 like try just opening a restaurant on the corner down here and like 50/50 odds 00:23:01.760 --> 00:23:04.157 the restaurant's going to work and like all you have to do to run a restaurant 00:23:04.240 --> 00:23:07.277 is like have a thing and serve food and like and it's like most restaurants 00:23:07.360 --> 00:23:09.597 fail, right? And so and restaurant people run restaurants are like pretty 00:23:09.680 --> 00:23:11.997 smart like they're you know they're they usually think about these things very 00:23:12.080 --> 00:23:15.117 hard and they all want to succeed. Um, and it's hard to do that. And so to 00:23:15.200 --> 00:23:18.877 start a tech company or to start an artistic movement or to or to fight a 00:23:18.960 --> 00:23:22.957 war, like you're just going into this like basically b conceptual battleground 00:23:23.040 --> 00:23:26.557 or military terms, real battleground where there's just like incredible 00:23:26.640 --> 00:23:30.477 levels of complexity, branching future paths. And so there there's nothing it's 00:23:30.560 --> 00:23:33.357 it's, you know, there's nothing predictable. And so what we look for is 00:23:33.440 --> 00:23:38.077 basically the the the sort of the really good innovators, they've got a drive to 00:23:38.160 --> 00:23:41.037 basically be able to cope with that and deal with that. And they they basically 00:23:41.120 --> 00:23:44.477 do that in two steps. So one is they try to pre-plan as much as they possibly can 00:23:44.560 --> 00:23:48.077 and and and we call that the process of navigating the we call the idea maze 00:23:48.160 --> 00:23:51.277 right and so the idea maze basically is I've got this general idea and it might 00:23:51.360 --> 00:23:54.077 be the internet's going to work or search or whatever and then it's like 00:23:54.160 --> 00:23:57.517 okay in their head they have thought through of like okay if I do it this way 00:23:57.600 --> 00:24:00.397 that way this third way here's what'll happen then I have to do that then I 00:24:00.480 --> 00:24:03.117 have to do this then I have to bring in somebody to do that here's the technical 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.237 challenge I'm going to hit and they've got in their in their heads as best 00:24:06.320 --> 00:24:09.917 anybody could they they've got as complete a sort of a map of possible 00:24:10.000 --> 00:24:12.717 futures as they could possibly have and and This is where I say when you ask 00:24:12.800 --> 00:24:15.197 them increasing detailed questions, that's what you're trying to kind of get 00:24:15.280 --> 00:24:19.357 them to kind of chart out is, okay, how far ahead have you thought and how much 00:24:19.440 --> 00:24:21.997 are you anticipating all of the different twists and turns that this is 00:24:22.080 --> 00:24:25.117 going to take. Okay, so then they start on day one. And then of course what 00:24:25.200 --> 00:24:27.437 happens is, you know, now they're now they're in it. They're in now they're in 00:24:27.520 --> 00:24:30.797 the fog of war, right? They're in future uncertainty. And now that idea maze is 00:24:30.880 --> 00:24:33.437 maybe not helpful practically, but now they're going to be basically 00:24:33.520 --> 00:24:37.037 constructing on the fly day by day as they learn and discover new things and 00:24:37.120 --> 00:24:39.437 as the world changes around them. And of course it's a feedback loop because 00:24:39.520 --> 00:24:41.517 they're going to change you know if their thing starts to work it's going to 00:24:41.600 --> 00:24:44.077 change the world and then the fact the world is changing is going to cause you 00:24:44.160 --> 00:24:48.477 know their plan to you know to change as well. Um and so yeah the great the great 00:24:48.560 --> 00:24:51.437 ones basically they they course correct you know they the great ones course 00:24:51.520 --> 00:24:55.037 correct every single day. You know they take stock of what they've learned. Um 00:24:55.120 --> 00:24:56.877 uh you know they they modify the plan. 00:24:56.960 --> 00:25:01.037 Um the great ones tend to think in terms of hypothesis right like a scientific 00:25:01.120 --> 00:25:04.717 sort of mentality which is they tend to think okay I'm going to try this like 00:25:04.800 --> 00:25:06.717 I'm going to go into the world. I'm going to announce that I'm doing this 00:25:06.800 --> 00:25:09.997 for sure, right? Like I'm going to say like this is my plan and I'm going to 00:25:10.080 --> 00:25:12.157 tell all my employees that I'm going to tell all my investors that and I'm going 00:25:12.240 --> 00:25:14.477 to put a steak in there on this my plan and then I'm going to try it, [snorts] 00:25:14.560 --> 00:25:17.357 right? And even though I sound like I have complete certainty, I know that I 00:25:17.440 --> 00:25:20.557 need to test to find out whether it's going to work. And if it's not, then I 00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:23.277 have to go back to all those same people and I have to say, well, actually, we're 00:25:23.360 --> 00:25:27.037 not going left, we're going right. And they have to run that loop thousands of 00:25:27.120 --> 00:25:29.757 times, right? And they had, you know, to get through the other side. And this 00:25:29.840 --> 00:25:33.117 this led to the creation of this great term pivot, which has been very helpful 00:25:33.200 --> 00:25:35.997 in our industry because the the word when I was when I was young, the word we 00:25:36.080 --> 00:25:39.187 used was [__] Um, [snorts] and pivot like sounds like so much better, 00:25:39.270 --> 00:25:42.237 [laughter] sounds like so much more professional. But yeah, you like make 00:25:42.320 --> 00:25:46.077 mistakes. It's just it's just too complicated to understand. You course 00:25:46.160 --> 00:25:50.397 correct, you adjust, you evolve. Often these things, at least in business, the 00:25:50.480 --> 00:25:53.117 businesses that end up working really well tend to be different than the 00:25:53.200 --> 00:25:57.517 original plan. But that's that's part of the process of a really smart founder 00:25:57.600 --> 00:26:00.717 basically working their way through reality, right, as as as they're 00:26:00.800 --> 00:26:03.437 executing their plan. >> The way you're describing this has 00:26:03.520 --> 00:26:07.117 parallels to a lot of models in biology and the practice of science. Um, you 00:26:07.200 --> 00:26:10.637 know, random walks, but that aren't truly random. Pseudo random walks in 00:26:10.720 --> 00:26:13.917 biology, etc. But one thing that uh is 00:26:14.000 --> 00:26:17.677 becoming clear from the way you're describing this is that I could imagine 00:26:17.760 --> 00:26:20.637 a great risk to early success. Mhm. 00:26:20.720 --> 00:26:24.317 >> So for instance, somebody develops a product, people are excited by it. Um 00:26:24.400 --> 00:26:28.237 they start to implement that product, but then the landscape changes and they 00:26:28.320 --> 00:26:33.197 don't learn how to pivot to use the um less profane version of it, right? They 00:26:33.280 --> 00:26:36.637 don't learn how to do that. In other words, the uh and I think of everything 00:26:36.720 --> 00:26:41.197 these days um or most everything in terms of reward schedules and dopamine 00:26:41.280 --> 00:26:45.197 reward schedules because that is the universal currency of reward. Um and so 00:26:45.280 --> 00:26:49.117 when you talk about the Sean Parker quote of um learning to enjoy the taste 00:26:49.200 --> 00:26:53.197 of one's own blood, that is very different than learning to enjoy the 00:26:53.280 --> 00:26:54.557 taste of success. That's right. 00:26:54.640 --> 00:26:57.197 >> Right. It's about internalizing success 00:26:57.280 --> 00:26:59.837 as a process of being self-determined 00:26:59.920 --> 00:27:02.717 and less agreeable, etc. In other words, 00:27:02.800 --> 00:27:07.837 building up of those five traits >> becomes the source of dopamine perhaps 00:27:07.920 --> 00:27:11.037 in a way that's highly adaptive. So on the outside we just see the product the 00:27:11.120 --> 00:27:13.597 end product the iPhone the MacBook the 00:27:13.680 --> 00:27:16.797 Netscape etc. But I have to presume and 00:27:16.880 --> 00:27:20.877 I'm not a psychologist um but I have done neurohysiology and I've uh studied 00:27:20.960 --> 00:27:23.597 the dopamine system enough to know that 00:27:23.680 --> 00:27:27.917 what's being rewarded in the context of what you're describing sounds to be a 00:27:28.000 --> 00:27:32.317 reinforcement of those five traits rather than oh it's going to be this 00:27:32.400 --> 00:27:35.037 particular product or the company's going to look this way or the logo is 00:27:35.120 --> 00:27:37.037 going to be this or that. That all seems 00:27:37.120 --> 00:27:40.877 like the peripheral to um what's really 00:27:40.960 --> 00:27:45.037 going on that great innovators are really in the process of of establishing 00:27:45.120 --> 00:27:49.197 neural circuitry that is all about reinforcing the me 00:27:49.280 --> 00:27:51.357 >> and the process of being me. 00:27:51.440 --> 00:27:53.597 >> Yeah. Yeah. So this this goes to Yeah. 00:27:53.680 --> 00:27:56.637 So this is like extrinsic versus intrinsic motivation. So the the Steve 00:27:56.720 --> 00:27:58.157 Jobs kind of Zen version of this, right? 00:27:58.240 --> 00:28:01.117 Or the sort of hippie version of this was the journey is the reward, 00:28:01.200 --> 00:28:03.837 >> right? He always he always told he always told his employees that is like 00:28:03.920 --> 00:28:06.397 look like you know everybody thinks in terms of these big public markers like 00:28:06.480 --> 00:28:09.277 the stock price or the IPO or the product launch or whatever he's like no 00:28:09.360 --> 00:28:14.237 it's it's actually the the process itself is the point right and and and if 00:28:14.320 --> 00:28:16.397 you to your point if you have that mentality then that's that's an 00:28:16.480 --> 00:28:19.197 intrinsic motivation not an extra exttrinsic motivation and so that's a 00:28:19.280 --> 00:28:22.957 kind of intrinsic motivation that can keep you going for a long time another 00:28:23.040 --> 00:28:25.757 way to think about it is competing against yourself right it's like can I 00:28:25.840 --> 00:28:30.397 get better at doing this right and can I prove to myself that I can get better um 00:28:30.480 --> 00:28:33.597 there's also a big social component to this and this is one of the reasons why 00:28:33.680 --> 00:28:36.877 Silicon Valley punches so so far above its weight as a place. Um there's a 00:28:36.960 --> 00:28:40.477 psychological component which is also goes to the comparison set. Um so a 00:28:40.560 --> 00:28:44.717 phenomenon that we've observed over time is the leading uh tech company in any 00:28:44.800 --> 00:28:47.197 city uh will aspire to be as large as 00:28:47.280 --> 00:28:51.917 the previous leading tech company in that city but often not larger right 00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:55.277 because they sort of they have a model of success and as long as they beat that 00:28:55.360 --> 00:28:57.837 level of success they've kind of you know checked the box like they've made 00:28:57.920 --> 00:29:01.597 it you know and and then they but then in contrast you're in Silicon Valley and 00:29:01.680 --> 00:29:04.717 you look around and it's just like Facebook and Cisco and Oracle and you 00:29:04.800 --> 00:29:08.157 know tulip Packard and >> gladiators. Yeah. And you're just like 00:29:08.240 --> 00:29:11.677 looking at these, you know, giants and and and you know, many of them are 00:29:11.760 --> 00:29:13.757 still, you know, Mark Zuckerberg's still, you know, going to work every day 00:29:13.840 --> 00:29:16.477 and like trying to trying to do, you know, like and and so like these people 00:29:16.560 --> 00:29:19.597 are like, you know, the role models are like alive, right? Right. And they're 00:29:19.680 --> 00:29:23.117 like right there, right? And it's so clear like how much better they are and 00:29:23.200 --> 00:29:26.157 how much bigger their accomplishments are. And so what what we find is young 00:29:26.240 --> 00:29:30.237 founders in that environment have much greater aspirations, right? Right? 00:29:30.320 --> 00:29:33.517 Because they just again maybe it's at that point maybe it's the social status 00:29:33.600 --> 00:29:37.197 maybe there's there's an extrinsic component to that but or maybe it helps 00:29:37.280 --> 00:29:40.557 calibrate that internal system to basically say actually you know no the 00:29:40.640 --> 00:29:43.517 opportunity here is not to build a local you know which we call local maximum 00:29:43.600 --> 00:29:47.037 form of success but let's build to a global maximum form of success which is 00:29:47.120 --> 00:29:50.877 which is something as big as we possibly can. Um, ultimately the great ones are 00:29:50.960 --> 00:29:53.597 probably driven more internally than externally when when it comes down to 00:29:53.680 --> 00:29:56.317 it. And that is where you get this phenomenon where you get people who are, 00:29:56.400 --> 00:29:59.117 you know, extremely successful and extremely wealthy who very easily can 00:29:59.200 --> 00:30:04.077 punch out and move to Fiji and just call it and they're still working 16our days, 00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:07.117 right? And so obviously something explains that that has nothing to do 00:30:07.200 --> 00:30:11.277 with external rewards. And and I think it's it's it's an internal thing. 00:30:11.360 --> 00:30:14.557 >> I'd like to take a quick break and acknowledge one of our sponsors, 00:30:14.640 --> 00:30:16.797 Athletic Greens. Athletic Greens, now 00:30:16.880 --> 00:30:21.597 called AG1, is a vitamin mineral probiotic drink that covers all of your 00:30:21.680 --> 00:30:26.157 foundational nutritional needs. I've been taking Athletic Greens since 2012. 00:30:26.240 --> 00:30:28.877 So, I'm delighted that they're sponsoring the podcast. The reason I 00:30:28.960 --> 00:30:32.397 started taking Athletic Greens and the reason I still take Athletic Greens once 00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:37.037 or usually twice a day is that it gets me the probiotics that I need for gut 00:30:37.120 --> 00:30:41.517 health. Our gut is very important. It's populated by gut microbiota that 00:30:41.600 --> 00:30:44.637 communicate with the brain, the immune system, and basically all the biological 00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:49.357 systems of our body to strongly impact our immediate and long-term health. And 00:30:49.440 --> 00:30:54.077 those probiotics and athletic greens are optimal and vital for microbiotic 00:30:54.160 --> 00:30:57.437 health. In addition, Athletic Greens contains a number of adaptogens, 00:30:57.520 --> 00:31:00.717 vitamins, and minerals that make sure that all of my foundational nutritional 00:31:00.800 --> 00:31:03.757 needs are met, and it tastes great. 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Again, that's athletic 00:31:19.840 --> 00:31:22.957 greens.com/huberman to get the five free travel packs and 00:31:23.040 --> 00:31:26.717 the year supply of vitamin D3 K2. 00:31:26.800 --> 00:31:29.357 I've heard you talk a lot about the 00:31:29.440 --> 00:31:33.837 inner landscape, the inner psychology of these folks and I appreciate that we're 00:31:33.920 --> 00:31:37.837 going even deeper into that today and we will talk about the the landscape around 00:31:37.920 --> 00:31:40.477 whether or not Silicon Valley or New York whether or not there are specific 00:31:40.560 --> 00:31:43.437 cities that are ideal for certain types of pursuits. I think there was an 00:31:43.520 --> 00:31:47.357 article written by Paul Graham some years ago about um the conversations 00:31:47.440 --> 00:31:50.237 that you overhear in a city will tell you everything you need to know about 00:31:50.320 --> 00:31:54.797 whether or not you belong there uh in terms of your uh professional pursuits. 00:31:54.880 --> 00:31:58.077 Um, some of that's changed over time and now we should probably add Austin to the 00:31:58.160 --> 00:32:00.077 mix. Um, because it was written some 00:32:00.160 --> 00:32:03.677 time ago. Um, in any event, I want to 00:32:03.760 --> 00:32:08.557 return to that, but I want to focus on an aspect of this intrinsic versus 00:32:08.640 --> 00:32:12.717 exttrinsic motivators in terms of something that's a bit more cryptic, 00:32:12.800 --> 00:32:16.557 which is uh, one's personal relationships. You know, if I think 00:32:16.640 --> 00:32:20.877 about the um catalog of innovators in Silicon Valley, some of them like Steve 00:32:20.960 --> 00:32:24.957 Jobs had complicated personal lives, romantic personal lives early on, and it 00:32:25.040 --> 00:32:28.077 sounds like he worked it out. I don't know. I didn't uh I wasn't their uh 00:32:28.160 --> 00:32:32.797 couple's therapist, but you know, he um when he died, he was in a marriage that 00:32:32.880 --> 00:32:34.237 for all the world seemed like a happy 00:32:34.320 --> 00:32:37.837 marriage. Um you also have examples of 00:32:37.920 --> 00:32:41.597 innovators who have had many partners, many children with other partners. Elon 00:32:41.680 --> 00:32:45.277 comes to mind. Um, you know, I I don't think I'm disclosing anything that isn't 00:32:45.360 --> 00:32:49.517 already obvious. Um, those could have been happy relationships and just had 00:32:49.600 --> 00:32:51.917 many of them. But the reason I'm asking 00:32:52.000 --> 00:32:54.237 this is you can imagine that for the 00:32:54.320 --> 00:32:56.717 innovator, the person with these traits 00:32:56.800 --> 00:32:59.197 who's trying to build up this this 00:32:59.280 --> 00:33:02.077 thing, whatever it is, that having 00:33:02.160 --> 00:33:05.917 someone or several people in some cases, 00:33:06.000 --> 00:33:10.957 um, who just truly believe in you when the rest of the world may not believe in 00:33:11.040 --> 00:33:14.157 you yet or at all, >> could be immensely powerful. And we have 00:33:14.240 --> 00:33:18.557 examples from cults >> that um, uh, embody this. We have 00:33:18.640 --> 00:33:23.117 examples from politics. We have examples from tech innovation and science. Uh, 00:33:23.200 --> 00:33:26.397 and I've always been fascinated by this because I feel like it's the more 00:33:26.480 --> 00:33:29.597 cryptic and yet very potent form of 00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:31.997 allowing someone to build themselves up. 00:33:32.080 --> 00:33:36.157 It's a combination of inner psychology and exttrinsic motivation because 00:33:36.240 --> 00:33:40.477 obviously if that person were to die or leave them or um cheat on them or you 00:33:40.560 --> 00:33:44.637 know pair up with some other innovator which we've seen several times recently 00:33:44.720 --> 00:33:48.797 and in the past it can be devastating to that person. But what are your thoughts 00:33:48.880 --> 00:33:50.877 on the role of personal and in 00:33:50.960 --> 00:33:56.237 particular romantic relationship as it relates to people having an idea and 00:33:56.320 --> 00:33:59.917 they're feeling that they can really bring that idea to fruition in the world. 00:34:00.000 --> 00:34:03.917 >> So I it's a real mixed bag. You have lots of examples in all directions and I 00:34:04.000 --> 00:34:06.717 think it's something like it's something like something like following. So first 00:34:06.800 --> 00:34:09.677 is we talked about the personality traits of these people. They tend to be 00:34:09.760 --> 00:34:12.797 highly disagreeable. >> Doesn't foster a good romantic relationship. 00:34:12.880 --> 00:34:14.717 >> Highly disagreeable people can be difficult [laughter] to be in 00:34:14.800 --> 00:34:16.317 relationship. >> I may have heard of that once or twice 00:34:16.400 --> 00:34:18.637 before. friend may [clears throat] have given me that example. 00:34:18.720 --> 00:34:20.797 >> Yeah. Right. And you know, maybe you just need to find the right person who 00:34:20.880 --> 00:34:23.037 like complements that and is willing to, you know, there's there's a lot of 00:34:23.120 --> 00:34:25.277 relationships where like you it's always this question about relationships, 00:34:25.360 --> 00:34:27.837 right? Which is do you want to have the same personality, you know, growth 00:34:27.920 --> 00:34:30.317 profile, the same behavioral traits basically as your partner or do you 00:34:30.400 --> 00:34:33.597 actually want to have, you know, is it is it an opposites opposites thing? And 00:34:33.680 --> 00:34:35.757 you know, look, I'm sure you've seen this. There are relationships where 00:34:35.840 --> 00:34:37.757 you'll have somebody who's highly disagreeable who's paired with somebody 00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:40.797 who's highly agreeable. And it actually works out great because one person just 00:34:40.880 --> 00:34:43.197 gets to be on their soap box all the time and the other person is just like, 00:34:43.280 --> 00:34:47.437 "Okay, right. [laughter] It's fine, right? It's fine. That's good. Um, you 00:34:47.520 --> 00:34:50.797 know, you put two disagreeable people together, you know, maybe sparks fly and 00:34:50.880 --> 00:34:53.117 they have great conversations all the time and maybe they come to hate each 00:34:53.200 --> 00:34:56.877 other, right? And so, um, so anyway, so these people, if you're going to be with 00:34:56.960 --> 00:34:59.677 one of these people, you're fishing out of the disagreeable end of the pond. And 00:34:59.760 --> 00:35:02.077 and again, when I say disagreeable, I don't mean, you know, these are these 00:35:02.160 --> 00:35:05.277 are normal distributions. I don't mean like 60% disagreeable or 80% 00:35:05.360 --> 00:35:09.117 disagreeable. The people we're talking about are 99.99% disagreeable, right? So 00:35:09.200 --> 00:35:13.517 these are ordinary ordinary people. So so part of it's that and then of course 00:35:13.600 --> 00:35:15.997 they have the other personality traits, right? they're they're, you know, super 00:35:16.080 --> 00:35:18.717 conscientious. They're super driven. As a consequence, they tend to work really 00:35:18.800 --> 00:35:21.437 hard. They tend to not have a lot of time for, you know, family vacations or 00:35:21.520 --> 00:35:24.077 other things. You know, they're not they then they don't enjoy them if they're 00:35:24.160 --> 00:35:27.037 forced to go on them. And so, again, that kind of thing can fray at a at a 00:35:27.120 --> 00:35:30.317 relationship. So, so there there's a so there's a fair amount in there that's 00:35:30.400 --> 00:35:33.037 loaded. Like somebody who's going to partner with one of these people needs 00:35:33.120 --> 00:35:36.077 to be signed up for the ride. Um, and that's that's a hard thing, you know, 00:35:36.160 --> 00:35:39.517 that's a hard thing to do or or you need a true partnership of two of these, 00:35:39.600 --> 00:35:43.677 which is also hard to do. So, I think that's part of it. Um and then look I 00:35:43.760 --> 00:35:46.157 think a big part of it is you know people achieve a certain level of 00:35:46.240 --> 00:35:49.997 success um and you know either in their [laughter] own minds or you know 00:35:50.080 --> 00:35:53.357 publicly um and then they start to be able to get away with things right um 00:35:53.440 --> 00:35:56.237 and they start to be able it's like well okay you know now we're rich and 00:35:56.320 --> 00:35:59.277 successful and famous and now I deserve you know and and this is where you get 00:35:59.360 --> 00:36:03.037 into I I view this now in the realm of personal choice right you get in in this 00:36:03.120 --> 00:36:05.757 thing where people start to think that they deserve things um and so they start 00:36:05.840 --> 00:36:09.437 to behave in you know very bad ways um and and then they blow up their personal 00:36:09.520 --> 00:36:12.957 worlds as a consequence and maybe they regret later and maybe they don't, 00:36:13.040 --> 00:36:15.197 right? It's always a always a question. 00:36:15.280 --> 00:36:17.757 Um, so yeah, so I think there's that. 00:36:17.840 --> 00:36:21.517 Um, and then I don't know like yeah, some people just need maybe the other 00:36:21.600 --> 00:36:24.157 part of it is some people just need more emotional support than others. And I 00:36:24.240 --> 00:36:27.117 don't know that that's a big I don't know that that tilts either way. Like I 00:36:27.200 --> 00:36:30.077 know I know some of these people who have like great loving relationships and 00:36:30.160 --> 00:36:33.917 seem to draw very much on having this kind of firm foundation to rely upon. 00:36:34.000 --> 00:36:36.317 And then I know other people who are just like their personal lives are just 00:36:36.400 --> 00:36:40.077 a continuous train wreck and it doesn't seem doesn't seem to matter like 00:36:40.160 --> 00:36:42.797 professionally. they just keep doing what they're doing. And and and maybe 00:36:42.880 --> 00:36:45.677 there's a maybe we could talk here about like, you know, whatever is the 00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:48.557 personality trait for risk-taking, right? Like some people are so 00:36:48.640 --> 00:36:52.157 incredibly riskrone that they need to take risk in all aspects of their lives 00:36:52.240 --> 00:36:55.597 at all times and and if if if part of their life gets stable, they find a way 00:36:55.680 --> 00:36:59.757 to blow it up. Um and that's some of some of these people you could describe 00:36:59.840 --> 00:37:03.037 in those terms also. >> Yeah, let's talk about that. Um because 00:37:03.120 --> 00:37:06.157 I think um risk-taking and sensation 00:37:06.240 --> 00:37:08.317 seeking is something that fascinates me 00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:10.477 um for my own reasons and in my 00:37:10.560 --> 00:37:14.077 observations of others. Um 00:37:14.160 --> 00:37:18.237 does it dovetail with these five traits in a way that can really serve 00:37:18.320 --> 00:37:21.517 innovation in ways that can benefit everybody? The reason I say to benefit 00:37:21.600 --> 00:37:23.997 everybody is because there is a view of 00:37:24.080 --> 00:37:26.717 how we're painting this picture of the 00:37:26.800 --> 00:37:31.197 innovator as this like really cruel person. Um but oftentimes what we're 00:37:31.280 --> 00:37:34.717 talking about are innovations that make the world far better for billions of 00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:35.757 people. >> Yeah, that's right. 00:37:35.840 --> 00:37:37.357 >> Yeah. >> Yeah. And and by the way, everything 00:37:37.440 --> 00:37:40.237 we're talking about also is not just in tech or science or or in business. It's 00:37:40.320 --> 00:37:42.317 also everything we're also talking about is true for the arts, 00:37:42.400 --> 00:37:45.597 >> right? So, you know, the history of like artistic expression is, you know, you 00:37:45.680 --> 00:37:46.957 people with all these same kinds of traits. 00:37:47.040 --> 00:37:49.917 >> Well, I was thinking about Picasso and his and his regular turnover of lovers 00:37:50.000 --> 00:37:51.917 and partners and he was very open about 00:37:52.000 --> 00:37:53.437 the fact that it was one of the sources 00:37:53.520 --> 00:37:56.957 of his productivity uh slashcreativity. 00:37:57.040 --> 00:38:01.277 Uh he wasn't shy about that. Um I I suppose if he were alive today, it might 00:38:01.360 --> 00:38:03.277 be a little bit different. He might be judged a little differently. 00:38:03.360 --> 00:38:06.877 >> Right. Or that was his story for you know behaving in a pattern that you know 00:38:06.960 --> 00:38:09.357 was very awful for the people around him and he didn't care. Right. 00:38:09.440 --> 00:38:10.717 >> Right. Maybe they left him. 00:38:10.800 --> 00:38:14.077 >> Yeah. Like you know who knows, right? So so so you know this puts and takes to 00:38:14.160 --> 00:38:17.437 all this. Um but um but no. Okay. So I have a theory. So here here's a theory. 00:38:17.520 --> 00:38:19.677 This this is one of these. I keep a list of things that will get me kicked out of 00:38:19.760 --> 00:38:22.957 a dinner party. Um at topics at any given point in time. 00:38:23.040 --> 00:38:24.077 >> Do you read it before you go in? 00:38:24.160 --> 00:38:27.037 >> Yeah. I just I yeah so I I I [laughter] 00:38:27.120 --> 00:38:31.357 have it on on auto recall so that I can I can get out of these things. But um so 00:38:31.440 --> 00:38:33.997 here here's the thing that can get me kicked out of a dinner party. Um uh 00:38:34.080 --> 00:38:38.877 especially these days. Um so uh think of the kind of person where it's like very 00:38:38.960 --> 00:38:41.837 clear that they're like super high to your point there is somebody who's super 00:38:41.920 --> 00:38:44.077 high output in whatever domain they're in. They've done things that have like 00:38:44.160 --> 00:38:45.597 fundamentally like changed the world. 00:38:45.680 --> 00:38:48.317 They've brought new whether it's businesses or technologies or art you 00:38:48.400 --> 00:38:52.397 know works of art um uh you know entire schools of of creative expression in 00:38:52.480 --> 00:38:55.917 some cases to the world. And then at a certain point they blow themselves to 00:38:56.000 --> 00:38:59.677 smitherines, right? And they do that either through like a massive like 00:38:59.760 --> 00:39:02.877 financial scandal. They do that through a massive personal, you know, breakdown. 00:39:02.960 --> 00:39:06.317 They do that through some sort of public expression that causes them a huge 00:39:06.400 --> 00:39:08.637 amount of problems. You know, they say they say the wrong thing, maybe not 00:39:08.720 --> 00:39:11.837 once, but [laughter] several hundred times and blow themselves to 00:39:11.920 --> 00:39:14.637 smitherines. Um and and and there's this, you know, there's this kind of 00:39:14.720 --> 00:39:17.757 arc. There's this moral arc that people kind of want to apply which it's like 00:39:17.840 --> 00:39:20.797 the Icarus, you know, the the you know, flying too close to the sun and, you 00:39:20.880 --> 00:39:24.077 know, he had it coming and he needed to keep his ego under control and you get 00:39:24.160 --> 00:39:27.757 kind of this, you know, kind of this this this this judgment that applies. Um 00:39:27.840 --> 00:39:31.677 so I have a different theory on this. So the term I use to describe these people 00:39:31.760 --> 00:39:34.157 and a lot of and by the way, a lot of other people who don't actually blow 00:39:34.240 --> 00:39:38.317 themselves up but get close to it, um which is a whole another set of people. 00:39:38.400 --> 00:39:43.437 um uh I call them martyrs to civilizational progress right so so work 00:39:43.520 --> 00:39:46.957 backwards civilizational progress so look the only way civilization gets 00:39:47.040 --> 00:39:50.157 moved forward is when people like this do something new right because 00:39:50.240 --> 00:39:54.397 civilization as a whole does not do new things right groups of people do not do 00:39:54.480 --> 00:39:58.237 new things right these these things don't happen automatically like by by by 00:39:58.320 --> 00:40:02.557 default nothing changes the only way civilizational change on any of these 00:40:02.640 --> 00:40:06.157 axes ever happens is because one of these people stands up and says you know 00:40:06.240 --> 00:40:08.397 no I'm going to do something different than whatever everybody else has ever 00:40:08.480 --> 00:40:12.477 done before. So th this is the this is progress. Like this is actually how it 00:40:12.560 --> 00:40:16.877 happens. Sometimes they get lionized or awarded. Sometimes they get crucified. 00:40:16.960 --> 00:40:19.037 Sometimes the crucification is literal. 00:40:19.120 --> 00:40:20.637 Sometimes it's just you know symbolic. 00:40:20.720 --> 00:40:25.037 But like you know they are those kinds of people. Um and then and then and then 00:40:25.120 --> 00:40:28.877 murders like when when they go down in flames like they have and again this is 00:40:28.960 --> 00:40:31.757 where it really screws the people's moral judgments cuz everybody wants to 00:40:31.840 --> 00:40:35.437 have the sort of super clear story of like okay he did a bad thing and he was 00:40:35.520 --> 00:40:39.437 punished. And I'm I'm like, "No, no, no, no, no." He was the kind of person who 00:40:39.520 --> 00:40:43.437 was going to do great things and also was going to take on a level of risk and 00:40:43.520 --> 00:40:46.717 take on a level of sort of extreme behavior such that he was going to 00:40:46.800 --> 00:40:50.157 expose himself to flying too close to the sun, wings melt, and crash to 00:40:50.240 --> 00:40:54.397 ground. But but but it's a package deal, right? The the the reason you have the 00:40:54.480 --> 00:40:57.517 Picassos and the Beethoven and all these people is because they're willing to 00:40:57.600 --> 00:41:01.117 take these extreme level of risks. they they they are that creative and original 00:41:01.200 --> 00:41:04.317 not just in their art or their business but in everything else that they do that 00:41:04.400 --> 00:41:07.357 they will set themselves up to be able to fail psychologic you know a 00:41:07.440 --> 00:41:09.597 psychologist would probably or psychiatrist would probably say you know 00:41:09.680 --> 00:41:11.997 maybe you know to what extent do they actually like have a death wish do they 00:41:12.080 --> 00:41:14.317 do they actually you know at some point do they want to punish themselves do 00:41:14.400 --> 00:41:18.397 they want to fail that I don't know but you see this they they they deliberately 00:41:18.480 --> 00:41:21.197 move themselves too close to the sun and and and you can you can see it when it's 00:41:21.280 --> 00:41:23.597 happening because like if [snorts] they get too far from the sun they 00:41:23.680 --> 00:41:27.117 deliberately move back towards it right you know they they come right back and 00:41:27.200 --> 00:41:31.757 they they they want the risk Uh, and so anyway, like I I I yeah, so 00:41:31.840 --> 00:41:35.997 martyrs to civilizational progress, like this is how progress happens. When these 00:41:36.080 --> 00:41:38.957 people crash and burn, the natural, you know, inclination is to judge them 00:41:39.040 --> 00:41:42.397 morally. I tend to think we should basically say look like and and I don't 00:41:42.480 --> 00:41:45.197 even know if this means like giving them a moral pass or whatever, but it's like 00:41:45.280 --> 00:41:49.437 look like this is how civil civilization progresses and we need to at least 00:41:49.520 --> 00:41:52.717 understand that there's a self-sacrificial aspect to this that 00:41:52.800 --> 00:41:55.837 that may be tragic and and often is tragic, but it it is it is quite 00:41:55.920 --> 00:41:57.837 literally self-sacrificial. Are there 00:41:57.920 --> 00:42:01.677 any examples of great innovators who um 00:42:01.760 --> 00:42:03.357 were able to compartmentalize their 00:42:03.440 --> 00:42:06.797 risk-taking uh to such a degree that 00:42:06.880 --> 00:42:10.877 they had what seemed to be a morally impeccable life 00:42:10.960 --> 00:42:13.837 >> in every domain except in their business pursuits? 00:42:13.920 --> 00:42:16.557 >> Yeah, that's right. So, some people are very some people are very highly 00:42:16.640 --> 00:42:20.637 controlled like that. Um some people are able to like very narrowly and I I don't 00:42:20.720 --> 00:42:23.117 really want to set myself an example in a lot of this, but I will tell you like 00:42:23.200 --> 00:42:27.277 as an example like I I I will never use debt in business. Uh, number one, you 00:42:27.360 --> 00:42:29.837 know, number two, like I have the most placid personal life you can imagine. 00:42:29.920 --> 00:42:32.557 Number three, I'm not I'm the last person in the world who's ever gonna do 00:42:32.640 --> 00:42:36.157 an extreme sport. I mean, I'm not even gonna go on the sauna on the ice bath. 00:42:36.240 --> 00:42:38.157 Like, I'm not I'm not doing any of this. 00:42:38.240 --> 00:42:41.997 Like, I don't doing any I'm not telesking. No obligation. I'm not I'm 00:42:42.080 --> 00:42:44.557 not on the Titan. I'm not, you know, I'm not going down to see the Titanic. 00:42:44.640 --> 00:42:46.477 >> Goodness, you weren't. >> I'm not doing any of this. I'm not doing 00:42:46.560 --> 00:42:49.037 any of this stuff. I have no interest. I don't play golf. I don't ski. I I have 00:42:49.120 --> 00:42:50.717 no interest in any of this stuff, right? 00:42:50.800 --> 00:42:53.437 And so like there are ex and I know people like this, right, who are very 00:42:53.520 --> 00:42:55.997 high achievers. It's just like, yeah, they they're they're they're completely 00:42:56.080 --> 00:42:58.957 segmented. They're extreme risktakers in business. They're completely button down 00:42:59.040 --> 00:43:01.997 on the personal side. They're completely buttoned down, you know, financially. 00:43:02.080 --> 00:43:04.797 They're, you know, they they're scrupulous with following every rule and 00:43:04.880 --> 00:43:07.917 law you can possibly imagine. But but they're still fantastic innovators. And 00:43:08.000 --> 00:43:11.677 then I know many others who are just like they've their life is on fire all 00:43:11.760 --> 00:43:15.037 the time in every possible way. And whenever it looks like the fire is 00:43:15.120 --> 00:43:18.237 turning into embers, they figure out a way to like relight the fire, right? um 00:43:18.320 --> 00:43:21.197 and they just really want to live on the 00:43:21.280 --> 00:43:25.437 edge. And so I I think that's maybe I think that's an independent variable. 00:43:25.520 --> 00:43:26.637 And again, I would apply the same thing. 00:43:26.720 --> 00:43:30.397 I think the same thing applies to the arts. Um you know, classical music as an 00:43:30.480 --> 00:43:33.117 example. Like I think Bach was, you know, as an example, one of the you 00:43:33.200 --> 00:43:36.717 know, kind of best you musicians of all time, had just a completely sedate 00:43:36.800 --> 00:43:39.837 personal life. You know, never had any aberant behavior at all in his personal 00:43:39.920 --> 00:43:42.957 life. You know, family man, tons of kids, apparently, you know, pillar of 00:43:43.040 --> 00:43:46.957 the community, right? Right. And so like if Bach could be Bach and yet not like 00:43:47.040 --> 00:43:50.957 burn his way through, you know, 300 mistresses or whatever, you know, maybe 00:43:51.040 --> 00:43:54.557 you can too. >> So in thinking about these two different 00:43:54.640 --> 00:43:57.837 categories of innovators, those that take on tremendous risk in all domains 00:43:57.920 --> 00:44:00.477 of their life and those that take on tremendous risk in a very 00:44:00.560 --> 00:44:02.477 compartmentalized way, um I don't know 00:44:02.560 --> 00:44:05.517 what the percentages are. Uh but I have 00:44:05.600 --> 00:44:07.517 to wonder if in this modern age of the 00:44:07.600 --> 00:44:09.917 public being far less forgivable, what 00:44:10.000 --> 00:44:13.277 I'm referring to is cancel culture. Um, 00:44:13.360 --> 00:44:15.917 do you think that we are limiting the 00:44:16.000 --> 00:44:17.757 number of innovations 00:44:17.840 --> 00:44:21.037 in total like by just simply frightening 00:44:21.120 --> 00:44:23.597 or eliminating an enormous category of 00:44:23.680 --> 00:44:25.597 innovators because they don't have the 00:44:25.680 --> 00:44:28.637 confidence or the means or the um 00:44:28.720 --> 00:44:32.797 strategies in place to regulate. So they're just either bowing out or 00:44:32.880 --> 00:44:35.357 they're getting crossed off. They're getting canceled one by one. 00:44:35.440 --> 00:44:39.197 >> So do you think the public is less tolerant than they used to be or more 00:44:39.280 --> 00:44:40.877 tolerant? 00:44:40.960 --> 00:44:44.477 Well, the systems that uh I'm not going 00:44:44.560 --> 00:44:47.597 to be careful here. I think the um the 00:44:47.680 --> 00:44:51.117 large institution systems, yes, are not 00:44:51.200 --> 00:44:53.757 tolerant of what the public tells them 00:44:53.840 --> 00:44:57.597 they shouldn't be tolerant of. Um and so 00:44:57.680 --> 00:45:01.997 if there's enough noise, there's enough noise in the mob, I think institutions 00:45:02.080 --> 00:45:06.317 bow out. And here I'm referring not just to univer they essentially say okay the 00:45:06.400 --> 00:45:09.837 let the cancellation proceed or they and maybe they're the maybe they're the 00:45:09.920 --> 00:45:13.517 gavvel that comes down but but they're not the the lever that got the thing 00:45:13.600 --> 00:45:16.637 going. And so I'm not just thinking about universities. I'm also thinking 00:45:16.720 --> 00:45:21.037 about advertisers. I'm thinking about um the big movie houses that um cancel a 00:45:21.120 --> 00:45:23.437 film that a given actor might be in because they had something in their 00:45:23.520 --> 00:45:25.917 personal life that's still getting worked out. I'm thinking about people 00:45:26.000 --> 00:45:28.957 who um are in a legal process that's not 00:45:29.040 --> 00:45:33.037 yet resolved, but the public has decided they're a bad person, etc. 00:45:33.120 --> 00:45:36.157 >> My question is, are we really talking about the public? 00:45:36.240 --> 00:45:39.677 I I agree with your question, and I'm going to come back to it, but I I'm so 00:45:39.760 --> 00:45:41.917 I'm going to examine one part of your question, which is, is this really the 00:45:42.000 --> 00:45:45.117 public we're talking about? And and I would just say exhibit A is who is the 00:45:45.200 --> 00:45:46.717 current front runner for the Republican 00:45:46.800 --> 00:45:50.237 nomination? Um, today 00:45:50.320 --> 00:45:52.797 the public [laughter] at least on one 00:45:52.880 --> 00:45:57.437 side of the political aisle seems very on board, right? Um, number two, like 00:45:57.520 --> 00:46:01.197 look, uh, you know, there's a certain musician who like, you know, flew too 00:46:01.280 --> 00:46:03.997 close to the sun, blew himself to smitherines. He's still hitting all-time 00:46:04.080 --> 00:46:07.917 highs on music streams every month. The 00:46:08.000 --> 00:46:11.597 public seems fine. >> Like I I think the public might I I 00:46:11.680 --> 00:46:14.317 would argue the public is actually more open to these things than it actually 00:46:14.400 --> 00:46:16.957 maybe ever has been. >> Um, and we could talk about why that's 00:46:17.040 --> 00:46:19.517 the case. I think it's a it's a differentiation and this is what what 00:46:19.600 --> 00:46:21.917 your question was aiming at but it's a differentiation between the public and 00:46:22.000 --> 00:46:26.157 the elites and so so so I my view is everything that you just described as an 00:46:26.240 --> 00:46:29.837 elite phenomenon and actually the public is very much not on board with it 00:46:29.920 --> 00:46:32.877 >> interesting and and and so what's actually happening is the division 00:46:32.960 --> 00:46:35.917 what's happened is the public and the elites have gapped out the the the 00:46:36.000 --> 00:46:38.397 public is more forgiving of of of what 00:46:38.480 --> 00:46:43.117 previously might have been considered kind of eper extreme behavior um right 00:46:43.200 --> 00:46:45.597 Scott Fitzgerald there are no second acts in American lives it turns out 00:46:45.680 --> 00:46:48.317 completely wrong turns out their second acts, third acts, fourth acts. 00:46:48.400 --> 00:46:51.117 Apparently, you can have a limited number of acts. The public is actually up for it. 00:46:51.200 --> 00:46:54.797 >> Yeah. I mean, I think of somebody like Mike Tyson, right? I feel like he's 00:46:54.880 --> 00:46:57.837 every, you know, his life exemplifies um 00:46:57.920 --> 00:47:01.917 everything that's amazing and great and also terrible about America. 00:47:02.000 --> 00:47:05.437 >> If we took Mike Tyson to dinner tonight at any restaurant anywhere in the United 00:47:05.520 --> 00:47:07.197 States, what would happen? >> He would be loved. 00:47:07.280 --> 00:47:12.077 >> Oh, he would be like he would the outpouring of enthusiasm and passion and 00:47:12.160 --> 00:47:16.477 love >> would be incredible. Like it would be unbelievable. This this is a great 00:47:16.560 --> 00:47:19.357 example like it just like the and again I'm not even going to draw more I'm not 00:47:19.440 --> 00:47:21.837 even going to say I agree with that or disagree with that of just like we I 00:47:21.920 --> 00:47:25.597 think we all intuitively know that the public is just like 100% like absolutely 00:47:25.680 --> 00:47:28.557 like he's a legend like he's a legend he's a living legend he's like a 00:47:28.640 --> 00:47:31.437 cultural touchstone absolutely and you see it when he shows up in movies right 00:47:31.520 --> 00:47:34.317 he shows I remember the I mean the big breakthrough where I figured this out 00:47:34.400 --> 00:47:37.037 with respect to him because I don't really follow sports but when he showed 00:47:37.120 --> 00:47:40.557 up in that it was that first hangover movie and he shows up and you know it 00:47:40.640 --> 00:47:44.717 was I was in a theater and like the the audience just goes bananas crazy they're 00:47:44.800 --> 00:47:47.437 so excited to see him. >> Yeah, he evokes delight. I always say 00:47:47.520 --> 00:47:51.277 that Mike Tyson is the only person I'm aware of that can wear a shirt with his 00:47:51.360 --> 00:47:56.237 own name on it and it somehow doesn't seem uh wrong. In fact, it just kind of 00:47:56.320 --> 00:47:57.837 makes you like him more. >> Yeah. 00:47:57.920 --> 00:48:01.117 >> Um it's it his ego feels very contoured 00:48:01.200 --> 00:48:03.357 in a way that uh he knows who he is and 00:48:03.440 --> 00:48:08.237 who he was and and yet there's a there's a humbleness woven in maybe as a 00:48:08.320 --> 00:48:11.597 consequence of all that he's been through. I don't know. Um but yeah, 00:48:11.680 --> 00:48:15.037 people love Mike. >> Publicly loves him now. Exactly. Now, 00:48:15.120 --> 00:48:17.917 you know, if he shows up to like lecture at Harvard, right, like I think you're 00:48:18.000 --> 00:48:19.117 probably going to get a different reaction. 00:48:19.200 --> 00:48:22.957 >> I don't know. I don't know. I mean, David Simon, you know, the the guy who 00:48:23.040 --> 00:48:27.197 wrote The Wire, gave a gave a talk at Harvard and um and it sounded to me 00:48:27.280 --> 00:48:29.517 based on his report of that um which is 00:48:29.600 --> 00:48:33.117 very interesting. In fact, um that 00:48:33.200 --> 00:48:35.277 people adore 00:48:35.360 --> 00:48:38.877 um people who are connected to everybody 00:48:38.960 --> 00:48:43.277 in that way. Like I feel like everybody loves Mike from from above his status, 00:48:43.360 --> 00:48:48.397 the sides, below his status. He's just sort of he he occupies this this halo of 00:48:48.480 --> 00:48:51.037 of love and adoration. >> Okay. All right. Yeah. 00:48:51.120 --> 00:48:54.317 >> Um Yeah. And then look, the other side of this is the is is the elites. And you 00:48:54.400 --> 00:48:56.717 kind of alluded to this, the institutions. So So basically, it's like 00:48:56.800 --> 00:48:59.277 the people who are like at least nominally in charge or feel like they 00:48:59.360 --> 00:49:01.277 should be in charge. >> Yeah. I want to make sure we uh define 00:49:01.360 --> 00:49:03.597 elite. So you're not necessarily talking about people who are wealthy. You're 00:49:03.680 --> 00:49:06.877 talking about people who have authority within institutions. So the ultimate 00:49:06.960 --> 00:49:11.197 definition of an elite is who can get who fired, 00:49:11.280 --> 00:49:14.317 right? Like that's the the ultimate test. Who can get who fired, boycotted, 00:49:14.400 --> 00:49:16.557 blacklisted, ostracized, like when push 00:49:16.640 --> 00:49:21.597 prosecuted, jailed, like when push comes to shove, right? I think that's always 00:49:21.680 --> 00:49:24.317 the question. Who can destroy whose career? And of course, you'll notice 00:49:24.400 --> 00:49:27.277 that that is heavily asymmetric when they when these fights play out. Like 00:49:27.360 --> 00:49:29.677 there's very clear which side can get the other the other side fired and which 00:49:29.760 --> 00:49:33.037 side which side can't. Um and so yeah, so look, I think we we live in a period 00:49:33.120 --> 00:49:36.397 of time where the elites have gotten to be extreme in a number of dimensions and 00:49:36.480 --> 00:49:40.317 and I think it's characterized by for sure extreme group think, um extreme 00:49:40.400 --> 00:49:44.397 sanctimonyy, um extreme, you know, moral, you know, I say dojon, um you 00:49:44.480 --> 00:49:48.317 know, extreme, you know, this this weird sort of modern Puritanism, um and then 00:49:48.400 --> 00:49:52.637 an extreme sort of morality of like punishment and terror against their 00:49:52.720 --> 00:49:55.837 perceived enemies. Um but but I wanted to I wanted to go through that because I 00:49:55.920 --> 00:49:58.237 actually think I actually think that's a very different phenomenon. I think 00:49:58.320 --> 00:50:00.317 what's happening at the elites is very different than what's happening in the 00:50:00.400 --> 00:50:03.997 in the population at large. And then of course I I think there's a feedback loop 00:50:04.080 --> 00:50:07.117 in there which is I think the population at large is not on board with that 00:50:07.200 --> 00:50:10.637 program. Right? I think the elites are aware that the population is not on 00:50:10.720 --> 00:50:13.597 board with that program. I think they judge the population negatively as a 00:50:13.680 --> 00:50:16.797 consequence. That causes the elites to harden their own positions. That causes 00:50:16.880 --> 00:50:20.317 them to be even more alienating to the population. And so they're, you know, 00:50:20.400 --> 00:50:23.997 they're in sort of an oppositional negative feedback loop. Um and yeah, 00:50:24.080 --> 00:50:26.557 it's going to be and you know it's but again it's a sort of question. Okay, who 00:50:26.640 --> 00:50:30.877 who can get who fired? And so, you know, elites are really good uh at getting 00:50:30.960 --> 00:50:34.397 like normal people fired, ostracized, banned, you know, hit pieces in the 00:50:34.480 --> 00:50:38.317 press, like whatever. Um, you know, for normal people to get elites fired, they 00:50:38.400 --> 00:50:41.117 have to really like band together, right? And really mount a serious 00:50:41.200 --> 00:50:44.557 challenge, which mostly doesn't happen, but but might be starting to happen in 00:50:44.640 --> 00:50:45.277 some cases. 00:50:45.360 --> 00:50:48.797 >> Do you think this um power of the of the 00:50:48.880 --> 00:50:54.557 elites over um stemmed from social media sort of going against its original 00:50:54.640 --> 00:50:57.197 purpose? I mean, when you think social media, you think you're giving each and 00:50:57.280 --> 00:50:59.837 every person their own little reality TV 00:50:59.920 --> 00:51:02.237 show, their own voice. And yet, um, 00:51:02.320 --> 00:51:05.437 we've seen a dramatic uptick in the 00:51:05.520 --> 00:51:10.637 number of cancellations and firings related to immoral behavior based on 00:51:10.720 --> 00:51:14.077 things that were either done or amplified on social media. 00:51:14.160 --> 00:51:18.157 >> It's almost as if um the public is holding the wrong end of the knife. 00:51:18.240 --> 00:51:23.277 >> Yeah. So the way I describe it, so so I so I use these two terms and they're 00:51:23.360 --> 00:51:25.837 somewhat interchangeable, but elites and institutions and and they're they're 00:51:25.920 --> 00:51:28.157 somewhat interchangeable because who runs the institutions? The elites, 00:51:28.240 --> 00:51:32.397 right? And so it's it's a it's a sort of a self-reinforcing thing. Um and you 00:51:32.480 --> 00:51:34.877 know institutions of all kinds institutions everything from you know 00:51:34.960 --> 00:51:38.637 the government bureaucracies companies nonprofits foundations NOS's you know 00:51:38.720 --> 00:51:41.757 tech companies you know on and on and on like you know people who are in people 00:51:41.840 --> 00:51:46.237 who are in charge of big complexes and that that carry a lot of basically power 00:51:46.320 --> 00:51:49.597 and influence and capability and money as a consequence of their positional 00:51:49.680 --> 00:51:53.757 authority right so you know the head of a giant foundation may never have done 00:51:53.840 --> 00:51:56.157 anything in their life that would cause somebody to have a high opinion of them 00:51:56.240 --> 00:51:59.037 as a person but they're in charge of this you know gigantic multi-billion 00:51:59.120 --> 00:52:02.317 dollar complex and have all this power of the results So that's just to define 00:52:02.400 --> 00:52:05.757 terms at least institutions. Um so it's 00:52:05.840 --> 00:52:10.397 actually interesting. Uh Gallup uh has been doing polls on the following on the 00:52:10.480 --> 00:52:13.677 question of of trust in institutions which is sort of a therefore proxy for 00:52:13.760 --> 00:52:18.557 trust in elites. Uh basically since the early 1970s um and what you find and and 00:52:18.640 --> 00:52:21.837 they do this across all the categories of big institutions you know basically 00:52:21.920 --> 00:52:24.237 every everyone I just talked about a bunch of others big business small 00:52:24.320 --> 00:52:29.437 business banks newspapers broadcast television um the military police. So 00:52:29.520 --> 00:52:32.557 they've got like 30 categories or something. And basically what you see is 00:52:32.640 --> 00:52:36.237 almost all the categories basically started in the early 70s at like 60 or 00:52:36.320 --> 00:52:40.477 70% trust and now they've basically almost across the board they've just 00:52:40.560 --> 00:52:44.637 done had a complete basically linear slide down for 50 years basically my my 00:52:44.720 --> 00:52:48.717 whole life. Um and you know they're they're they're now bottoming out. You 00:52:48.800 --> 00:52:52.777 know Congress and journalists bottom out at like 10%. 00:52:52.860 --> 00:52:55.037 [laughter] Right? Like the the two groups everybody hates are like Congress 00:52:55.120 --> 00:52:59.117 and journalists. Um, and then it's like a lot of other big institutions are like 00:52:59.200 --> 00:53:02.957 20 in their 20s, 30s, 40s. Actually, big business actually scores fairly high. 00:53:03.040 --> 00:53:06.317 Tech actually scores quite high. The military scores quite high, but 00:53:06.400 --> 00:53:09.997 basically everything else has really caved in. And so, so this is sort of my 00:53:10.080 --> 00:53:13.117 fundamental challenge to everybody who basically says, and you you didn't do 00:53:13.200 --> 00:53:15.917 this, but you you'll hear this the simple form of this, which is social 00:53:16.000 --> 00:53:20.717 media caused the current trouble. And let's call this an example. Collapse in 00:53:20.800 --> 00:53:22.637 faith and institutions and and elites. 00:53:22.720 --> 00:53:25.677 Let's call that part of the current trouble. Um everybody's like well social 00:53:25.760 --> 00:53:29.357 media caused that. I was like well no social media social media is new right 00:53:29.440 --> 00:53:32.157 in the last you know social media is effectively new practically speaking 00:53:32.240 --> 00:53:36.557 since 2010 2012 is when it really took off. Um and so if the trend started in 00:53:36.640 --> 00:53:39.677 the early 1970s right and has been continuous then we're dealing with 00:53:39.760 --> 00:53:44.077 something broader. U and and and and u Martin Gur uh wrote I think the best 00:53:44.160 --> 00:53:46.397 book on this called the revolt of the public where he goes through this in 00:53:46.480 --> 00:53:50.077 detail and and he he he does he does say that um social media had a lot to do 00:53:50.160 --> 00:53:51.677 with what's happened in the last decade. 00:53:51.760 --> 00:53:54.797 But he says is yeah if you go back you look further it was basically two things 00:53:54.880 --> 00:53:58.797 coinciding. Uh one was just a general change in the media environment and in 00:53:58.880 --> 00:54:02.397 particular in the 1970s is when you started to and especially in the 1980s 00:54:02.480 --> 00:54:05.277 is when you started to get um specifically talk radio 00:54:05.360 --> 00:54:08.397 >> which was a new outlet. Um and then you also started you also got cable 00:54:08.480 --> 00:54:11.597 television. Um and then you also by the way it's actually interesting in the 00:54:11.680 --> 00:54:14.317 50s60s you had paperback books which was another one of these which was an 00:54:14.400 --> 00:54:17.517 outlet. So you you you had like a fracturing of the media landscape that 00:54:17.600 --> 00:54:20.797 started in the 50s through the 80s and then of course the internet like blew it 00:54:20.880 --> 00:54:24.397 wide open. Having said that, if the elites and the institutions were 00:54:24.480 --> 00:54:27.677 fantastic, you would know it more than ever [laughter] because information is 00:54:27.760 --> 00:54:31.117 more accessible. And so the other thing that he says and I agree with is the the 00:54:31.200 --> 00:54:33.917 public is not being tricked into thinking the elites and institutions are 00:54:34.000 --> 00:54:37.277 bad. They're they're they're learning that they're bad, right? And and and the 00:54:37.360 --> 00:54:39.837 mystery and therefore the mystery of the Gallup poll is why those numbers aren't 00:54:39.920 --> 00:54:43.597 all just zero, right? which is, you know, arguably, you know, in a lot of 00:54:43.680 --> 00:54:46.237 cases where they should be. >> I think one reason that, 00:54:46.320 --> 00:54:49.037 >> oh, and by the way, he thinks this is bad. So he and I have a different view. 00:54:49.120 --> 00:54:52.477 So here's where he and I disagree. He thinks this is bad. So he's he basically 00:54:52.560 --> 00:54:56.317 says you you can't replace elites with nothing. You can't replace institutions 00:54:56.400 --> 00:54:59.277 with nothing. If if if because what you're just left with is just going to 00:54:59.360 --> 00:55:02.557 be wreckage. You're going to left with a completely basically, you know, atomized 00:55:02.640 --> 00:55:05.677 out of control society that has no ability to marshall, you know, any sort 00:55:05.760 --> 00:55:08.717 of activity in any direction. It's just going to be a dog eat dog awful, you 00:55:08.800 --> 00:55:11.997 know, world. Um, I have a very different view on that which we could which we 00:55:12.080 --> 00:55:14.477 could talk about. >> Yeah, I'd love to I'd love to hear your views on that. 00:55:14.560 --> 00:55:16.397 >> Yeah. The the quick question I was going 00:55:16.480 --> 00:55:19.037 to ask before we go there is I think 00:55:19.120 --> 00:55:21.517 that one reason that I and many other 00:55:21.600 --> 00:55:23.757 people sort of reflexively assume that 00:55:23.840 --> 00:55:26.077 social media caused the the demise of 00:55:26.160 --> 00:55:29.597 our faith and institutions um is well 00:55:29.680 --> 00:55:32.237 first of all I wasn't aware of this um 00:55:32.320 --> 00:55:36.957 uh lack of correlation between the the decline in faith and institutions and 00:55:37.040 --> 00:55:39.197 and the rise of social media but 00:55:39.280 --> 00:55:41.277 secondarily that we've seen some 00:55:41.360 --> 00:55:45.117 movements that have um essentially 00:55:45.200 --> 00:55:49.117 rooted themselves in tweets in comments 00:55:49.200 --> 00:55:51.917 in posts that get amplified and those 00:55:52.000 --> 00:55:54.237 tweets and comments and posts come from 00:55:54.320 --> 00:55:56.717 everyday people. In fact, I can't name 00:55:56.800 --> 00:56:00.317 one person who initiated uh a given uh 00:56:00.400 --> 00:56:04.237 cancellation or movement because it was the sort of dog piling or mob um adding 00:56:04.320 --> 00:56:06.957 on to some person that was essentially anonymous. So I think that for many of 00:56:07.040 --> 00:56:09.597 us we we have the bot to use neuroscience language is sort of a 00:56:09.680 --> 00:56:14.237 bottom up in a perspective. Oh, you know, someone sees something um in their 00:56:14.320 --> 00:56:17.917 daily life or experiences something in their daily life and they tweet about it 00:56:18.000 --> 00:56:20.077 or they comment about it or they post 00:56:20.160 --> 00:56:23.677 about it and then enough people dogpile 00:56:23.760 --> 00:56:27.277 on the accused that um it picks up force 00:56:27.360 --> 00:56:30.397 and then the elites feel compelled um 00:56:30.480 --> 00:56:34.237 obligated to cancel somebody. Um that 00:56:34.320 --> 00:56:37.437 tends to be the narrative. And so I think the logical conclusion is oh you 00:56:37.520 --> 00:56:40.477 know social media allows for this to happen whereas normally someone would 00:56:40.560 --> 00:56:43.757 just be standing on the corner shouting or calling lawyers that don't have faith 00:56:43.840 --> 00:56:47.757 in them and you know you got the like the Aaron Brachovich model of a you know 00:56:47.840 --> 00:56:51.357 um you know that turns into a movie but that's a rare case of this lone woman 00:56:51.440 --> 00:56:56.397 who's got this idea in mind about how um big institution is is doing wrong uh or 00:56:56.480 --> 00:56:59.757 somebody is doing wrong in the world and then can leverage big institutions 00:56:59.840 --> 00:57:01.997 excuse me but the way that you describe 00:57:02.080 --> 00:57:07.277 it is that the elites are um are leading this this shift. 00:57:07.360 --> 00:57:10.317 >> So% >> so what is the role of the public in it? 00:57:10.400 --> 00:57:12.157 I mean I mean just to give it a concrete 00:57:12.240 --> 00:57:13.997 example um 00:57:14.080 --> 00:57:18.077 >> if for instance no one um tweeted or 00:57:18.160 --> 00:57:21.117 commented a meto or no one tweeted or 00:57:21.200 --> 00:57:24.317 commented about um some ill behavior of 00:57:24.400 --> 00:57:26.317 some I don't know university faculty 00:57:26.400 --> 00:57:31.437 member or um business person would the elite have come down on them 00:57:31.520 --> 00:57:34.077 anyway? >> Oh yeah. So what's happening? So what 00:57:34.160 --> 00:57:35.837 would which I based on what I've seen 00:57:35.920 --> 00:57:41.277 over the years um is is it's it's it there is so much astrourfing right now 00:57:41.360 --> 00:57:44.797 there there are entire categories of people who are paid to do this um some 00:57:44.880 --> 00:57:47.757 of them we call journalists um some of them we call activists some of them we 00:57:47.840 --> 00:57:50.557 call you know NGO you know nonprofits some of them we call university 00:57:50.640 --> 00:57:53.597 professors some of them we call grad students like whatever they're paid to 00:57:53.680 --> 00:57:56.077 do this you know re I don't know if you've ever looked into the 00:57:56.160 --> 00:57:59.757 misinformation uh industrial complex there's this whole universe of basically 00:57:59.840 --> 00:58:02.637 these funded groups that basically do quote unquote misin you know quote 00:58:02.720 --> 00:58:06.077 unquote min information and and they're constantly mounting these kinds of 00:58:06.160 --> 00:58:09.517 attacks. They're constantly trying to jin up this kind of basically panic to 00:58:09.600 --> 00:58:12.637 cause somebody to get fired. Like >> so it's not a grassroots. 00:58:12.720 --> 00:58:15.517 >> It's the opposite of grassroots. No, almost always when you trace these 00:58:15.600 --> 00:58:18.957 things back, it was a it was a journalist. It was an activist. It was a 00:58:19.040 --> 00:58:21.837 it was a it was a public figure of some kind. 00:58:21.920 --> 00:58:25.517 >> Um these are entrepreneur there there's these are entrepreneurs in a in a sort 00:58:25.600 --> 00:58:28.637 of a weird way. Like they're they're basically they're they're paid to their 00:58:28.720 --> 00:58:31.917 job mission calling in it's all wrapped up together. like they're true 00:58:32.000 --> 00:58:34.557 believers, but they're also getting paid to do it. Um, and there's a giant 00:58:34.640 --> 00:58:37.437 funding I mean there's a very large funding complex for this coming from, 00:58:37.520 --> 00:58:41.197 you know, certain high-profile people who put huge amounts of money into this. 00:58:41.280 --> 00:58:44.157 >> Is this well known? >> Yes. Well, so I mean it is in my world. 00:58:44.240 --> 00:58:46.877 So this is what the social media companies have been on the receiving end 00:58:46.960 --> 00:58:51.517 of for the last decade. Um, is it's this it's it's basic basically a political 00:58:51.600 --> 00:58:55.277 media activism complex with very deep pockets behind it. And you've got people 00:58:55.360 --> 00:58:59.037 who basically literally people who sit all day and watch the TV network on the 00:58:59.120 --> 00:59:01.677 other side or watch the Twitter feeds the other side and they wait. They they 00:59:01.760 --> 00:59:04.477 basically wait. It's like every politician, this has been the case for a 00:59:04.560 --> 00:59:06.957 long time now. Every every politician who goes out and gunk speeches, you'll 00:59:07.040 --> 00:59:09.757 see there's always somebody in the crowd with a camcorder or now with a phone 00:59:09.840 --> 00:59:13.357 recording them. And that's somebody from the other campaign who's paid somebody 00:59:13.440 --> 00:59:16.397 to just be there and like record every single thing the politician says. So 00:59:16.480 --> 00:59:19.677 that so that when a Mitt Romney says whatever the 47% thing, they've got it 00:59:19.760 --> 00:59:23.037 on tape and then they clip it and they and they try to make it viral. So th 00:59:23.120 --> 00:59:26.397 this stuff is and again like look like these people believe what they're doing. 00:59:26.480 --> 00:59:28.717 I'm not saying it's even dishonest. Like these people believe what they're doing. 00:59:28.800 --> 00:59:29.917 They think they're fighting a holy war. 00:59:30.000 --> 00:59:31.197 They think they're protecting democracy. 00:59:31.280 --> 00:59:33.117 They think they're protecting civilization. They think they're 00:59:33.200 --> 00:59:36.877 protecting whatever it is they're protecting. Um but but they and then 00:59:36.960 --> 00:59:39.917 they know how to use the tools and so they they know how to they know how to 00:59:40.000 --> 00:59:43.277 try to jin up the outrage. And then by the way, sometimes it works in social 00:59:43.360 --> 00:59:46.557 cascade. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes they cascade, 00:59:46.640 --> 00:59:49.437 sometimes they don't. But if you follow these people on Twitter, like this is 00:59:49.520 --> 00:59:52.237 what they do every day. They're constantly trying to like light life is 00:59:52.320 --> 00:59:55.517 fire, right? I assume that it was really 00:59:55.600 --> 00:59:59.277 bottom up, but it sounds like it's sort of a mid level and then it and that it 00:59:59.360 --> 01:00:02.237 captures the elites and then the thing takes on a life of its own. 01:00:02.320 --> 01:00:04.797 >> By the way, it also intersects with the trust and safety groups at the social 01:00:04.880 --> 01:00:07.917 media firms, right, who are responsible for figuring out who gets promoted and 01:00:08.000 --> 01:00:11.437 who gets banned right across this. And you'll notice one large social media 01:00:11.520 --> 01:00:15.557 company has recently changed hands and has implemented a different kind of 01:00:15.640 --> 01:00:18.477 [laughter] set of trust and safety. and all of a sudden a different kind of 01:00:18.560 --> 01:00:21.037 boycott movement has all of a sudden started to work that wasn't working 01:00:21.120 --> 01:00:23.837 before that and and another kind of boycott movement is not working as well 01:00:23.920 --> 01:00:27.837 anymore. Um and so there's like for sure there's an intermediation happening like 01:00:27.920 --> 01:00:30.477 look the stuff that's happening in the world today is being intermediated 01:00:30.560 --> 01:00:33.677 through social media because social media is the defining media of our time. 01:00:33.760 --> 01:00:37.277 Um but there are people who know how to do this and and and do this for a 01:00:37.360 --> 01:00:41.597 living. So so no I I very much view this as a I I view very much the like 01:00:41.680 --> 01:00:43.117 cancellation wave like this whole thing. 01:00:43.200 --> 01:00:47.437 It's it's a it's a it's it's an it's an elite phenomenon. Um and when it appears 01:00:47.520 --> 01:00:51.037 to be a grassroots thing, it's it's it's it's either grassroots among the elites, 01:00:51.120 --> 01:00:53.677 which you know is possible because there's, you know, a fairly large number 01:00:53.760 --> 01:00:56.797 of people who are like signed up for that, you know, that particular crusade. 01:00:56.880 --> 01:00:59.277 Um but there's also a lot of astroturfing that's taking place inside 01:00:59.360 --> 01:01:02.397 that. The question is, okay, at what point does the population at large get 01:01:02.480 --> 01:01:06.397 pulled into this and and maybe there are movements at certain points in time 01:01:06.480 --> 01:01:08.957 where they do get pulled in and then maybe later they get disillusioned. And 01:01:09.040 --> 01:01:11.437 so then there's some question there. And then there's another question of like, 01:01:11.520 --> 01:01:13.917 well, if the population at large is going to decide what these movements 01:01:14.000 --> 01:01:17.037 are, are they going to be the same movements as that the elites want? And 01:01:17.120 --> 01:01:19.677 are the elites how are the elites going to react when the population actually 01:01:19.760 --> 01:01:23.197 like fully expresses itself, right? And so there's and like I said, there's a 01:01:23.280 --> 01:01:25.997 feedback loop between these where the more extreme the elites get, they tend 01:01:26.080 --> 01:01:29.037 to push the population to more extreme views on the other side and vice versa. 01:01:29.120 --> 01:01:31.037 So it ping pongs back and forth. And so 01:01:31.120 --> 01:01:32.797 yeah, this is yeah, this is our world. 01:01:32.880 --> 01:01:37.277 >> Yeah, this explains a lot. Um I want to make sure that I 01:01:37.360 --> 01:01:40.877 >> Taibbe. So M Shelonberger, Matt Taibbe, a bunch of these guys have done a lot of 01:01:40.960 --> 01:01:44.797 work just if you just look into what's called the misinformation industrial 01:01:44.880 --> 01:01:47.277 complex, >> you'll find a network of money and power 01:01:47.360 --> 01:01:52.237 that is really quite amazing. >> I've seen um more and more Shelonburgger 01:01:52.320 --> 01:01:55.117 showing up, right? Um >> and he's just look on this stuff he and 01:01:55.200 --> 01:01:58.477 he and Ta just they're literally just like tracking money. I it's just like 01:01:58.560 --> 01:02:01.837 it's it's very clear how the money flows in including like a remarkable amount of 01:02:01.920 --> 01:02:04.557 money out of the government, >> you know, which is of course like in 01:02:04.640 --> 01:02:07.357 theory very concerning. >> Very interesting. 01:02:07.440 --> 01:02:10.237 >> The government should not be funding programs that take away people's 01:02:10.320 --> 01:02:14.877 constitutional rights and yet somehow that is what's been happening. 01:02:14.960 --> 01:02:19.037 >> Very interesting. >> Yes. >> I want to make sure that I hear your 01:02:19.120 --> 01:02:21.597 ideas about why the uh decline in 01:02:21.680 --> 01:02:24.957 confidence in institutions and is not 01:02:25.040 --> 01:02:29.837 necessarily problematic. Um, is this going to be a uh total destruction, 01:02:29.920 --> 01:02:33.517 burning down of the forest that will lead to new life? Is that your view? 01:02:33.600 --> 01:02:34.877 >> Yeah. Well, so this this is the thing. 01:02:34.960 --> 01:02:37.117 And and look, there's a question if you're there's a couple questions in 01:02:37.200 --> 01:02:41.677 here, which is just like how how bad is it really? Like how bad are they, 01:02:41.760 --> 01:02:43.597 >> right? And I I you know, I think they're 01:02:43.680 --> 01:02:47.677 pretty bad. Uh a lot of them are pretty actually bad. Um and so so so that's one 01:02:47.760 --> 01:02:50.557 big question. And then yeah, look, the other question is like okay, if an 01:02:50.640 --> 01:02:54.077 institution has gone bad or a group of elites have gone bad, like can can it's 01:02:54.160 --> 01:02:57.197 this wonderful word reform, right? Can can can they be reformed? And everybody 01:02:57.280 --> 01:03:00.317 always wants to reform everything and yet somehow like nothing ever quite ever 01:03:00.400 --> 01:03:03.197 gets reformed, right? Um and so people have been trying to reform, you know, 01:03:03.280 --> 01:03:05.917 housing policy in the Bay Area for decades. And you know, we're not 01:03:06.000 --> 01:03:09.117 building building fewer houses than ever before. So somehow reform movements seem 01:03:09.200 --> 01:03:12.797 to lead to more just just just more bad stuff. But anyway, yeah. So if you have 01:03:12.880 --> 01:03:15.117 an existing institution, can it be reformed? Can it be fixed from the 01:03:15.200 --> 01:03:17.677 inside? Like what's happened in universities? Like there's a lot of 01:03:17.760 --> 01:03:20.237 there are professors at Stanford as an example who very much think that they 01:03:20.320 --> 01:03:23.677 can fix Stanford. Like I don't know what you think. It 01:03:23.760 --> 01:03:27.037 doesn't seem like it's going in productive directions right now. 01:03:27.120 --> 01:03:29.757 >> Well, I mean, there are many things about Stanford that function extremely 01:03:29.840 --> 01:03:33.437 well. I It's a big institution. It's certainly got its issues like any other 01:03:33.520 --> 01:03:35.437 place. Um, they're also my employer. 01:03:35.520 --> 01:03:37.037 Mark's giving me some interesting looks. 01:03:37.120 --> 01:03:40.877 He wants me to get a little more vocal here. Um, no, no, you don't. No, no. I I 01:03:40.960 --> 01:03:42.397 mean, I think that um to put you on the spot. 01:03:42.480 --> 01:03:44.957 >> Yeah. I mean, one of the things about being a researcher at a big institution 01:03:45.040 --> 01:03:48.317 like Stanford is well, first of all, it meets the criteria that you described 01:03:48.400 --> 01:03:51.677 before. You know, you look to the left, you look to the right or anywhere above 01:03:51.760 --> 01:03:55.677 or below you and you have excellence, right? I mean, I've got a Nobel Prize 01:03:55.760 --> 01:03:59.597 winner below me whose daddy also won a Nobel Prize and there is scientific 01:03:59.680 --> 01:04:03.757 offspring is likely to win. I mean, you it it inspires you to do bigger things 01:04:03.840 --> 01:04:08.317 than uh than one ordinarily would no matter what. So, there's that and that's 01:04:08.400 --> 01:04:13.037 great and that persists. Um there's all the uh bureaucratic red tape about 01:04:13.120 --> 01:04:17.197 trying to get things done and how to implement decisions is very hard. Um and 01:04:17.280 --> 01:04:19.917 there are a lot of reasons for that. And then of course there are the things that 01:04:20.000 --> 01:04:24.317 um you know many people are aware of are there are uh public accusations about 01:04:24.400 --> 01:04:27.357 people in positions of great leadership and that's getting played out and it's 01:04:27.440 --> 01:04:31.197 and the whole thing becomes kind of overwhelming and a little bit opaque 01:04:31.280 --> 01:04:34.557 when you're just trying to like run your lab or live your life. And so I think 01:04:34.640 --> 01:04:38.077 one of the reasons for um this lack of reform that you're referring to 01:04:38.160 --> 01:04:41.197 >> is because um there's no position of 01:04:41.280 --> 01:04:46.237 reformer, right? So deans are dealing with a lot of issues. Provis are dealing 01:04:46.320 --> 01:04:49.277 with a lot of issues. Presidents are dealing with a lot of issues and and 01:04:49.360 --> 01:04:54.157 then some, uh, in some cases. And so, um, you know, we don't have a dedicated 01:04:54.240 --> 01:04:57.917 role of reformer, someone to go in and say, "Listen, there there's just a lot 01:04:58.000 --> 01:05:01.437 of fat on this and we need to trim it or we need to create this or do that. 01:05:01.520 --> 01:05:05.037 There's there just isn't a system to do that." Um, and that's I think in part 01:05:05.120 --> 01:05:09.277 because um, universities are are built on old systems and you know, it's like 01:05:09.360 --> 01:05:10.877 build it's like the New York subway. 01:05:10.960 --> 01:05:14.317 It's still it's amazing it still works as well as it does and yet it's got a 01:05:14.400 --> 01:05:15.997 ton of problems also. >> Yeah. 01:05:16.080 --> 01:05:18.797 >> Well, look so so so the point the point we could we could debate the the 01:05:18.880 --> 01:05:21.357 universities specifically but the point is like look if you do think 01:05:21.440 --> 01:05:23.917 institutions are going bad and then you have to make it number one you have to 01:05:24.000 --> 01:05:26.877 figure out if you think institutions are going bad. The population largely does 01:05:26.960 --> 01:05:30.077 think that then at the very least the people who run institutions ought to 01:05:30.160 --> 01:05:31.437 really think hard about what that means. 01:05:31.520 --> 01:05:36.317 But people still strive to go to these places. And I still hear from people who 01:05:36.400 --> 01:05:39.277 like, for instance, did not go to college are talking about how a 01:05:39.360 --> 01:05:42.237 university degree is useless. They'll tell you how proud they are that their 01:05:42.320 --> 01:05:46.557 son or daughter is going to Stanford or is going to UCLA or is going to Urbana 01:05:46.640 --> 01:05:50.637 Champagne. I mean, it's almost like to me that's always the most um you know, 01:05:50.720 --> 01:05:53.997 shocking contradiction is like, yeah, like these institutions don't matter, 01:05:54.080 --> 01:05:57.997 but then when people want to hold up a card that says why their kid is great, 01:05:58.080 --> 01:06:00.877 it's it's not about how many push-ups they can do or that they started their 01:06:00.960 --> 01:06:04.717 own business most of the time. It's they're going to this university and I 01:06:04.800 --> 01:06:06.237 think, well, what's going on here? 01:06:06.320 --> 01:06:08.797 >> So, do you think the median voter in the United States can have their kid go to 01:06:08.880 --> 01:06:12.317 Stanford? >> No. >> No. >> No. And and >> do you think the median voter in the 01:06:12.400 --> 01:06:14.397 United States could have their kid admitted to Stanford even with perfect 01:06:14.480 --> 01:06:19.117 SAT? No, no, no. [laughter] It in this day 01:06:19.200 --> 01:06:21.997 and age, the competition is so fierce that it requires more. 01:06:22.080 --> 01:06:25.597 >> Yeah. So like, so first of all, again, we're dealing here. Yes. We're dealing 01:06:25.680 --> 01:06:28.797 with there with a small number of very elite institutions. People may admire 01:06:28.880 --> 01:06:33.357 them or not. U most people have no connectivity to them whatsoever. In the 01:06:33.440 --> 01:06:37.917 statistics, in the polling, universities are not doing well. The population at 01:06:38.000 --> 01:06:40.317 large, yeah, they may have fantasies about their kid going to Stanford, but 01:06:40.400 --> 01:06:43.437 like the reality of it is they have a very very collapsing view of these 01:06:43.520 --> 01:06:47.437 institutions. Um so so anyways this this actually goes straight to the question 01:06:47.520 --> 01:06:50.237 of alternatives then right which is like okay if you believe that there's 01:06:50.320 --> 01:06:53.037 collapsing faith in the institutions if you believe that it is merited at least 01:06:53.120 --> 01:06:56.397 in some ways um if you believe that reform is effectively impossible then 01:06:56.480 --> 01:07:00.717 you are faced and we could debate each of those but like the population at 01:07:00.800 --> 01:07:04.477 large seems to believe a lot of that um then there's a question of like okay 01:07:04.560 --> 01:07:08.397 like can can it be replaced and if so like are you better off replacing these 01:07:08.480 --> 01:07:11.517 things basically while the old things still exist or do you actually need to 01:07:11.600 --> 01:07:14.637 basically clear the field to be able to have the new thing exist? 01:07:14.720 --> 01:07:17.197 The universities are a great case study of this because of the student because 01:07:17.280 --> 01:07:20.877 of how student loans work, right? And and the way student loans work is to to 01:07:20.960 --> 01:07:24.717 be able to be a to be to be an actual competitive university and compete, you 01:07:24.800 --> 01:07:27.277 need to have access to federal student lending because if you don't, everybody 01:07:27.360 --> 01:07:29.517 has to pay out of pocket and it's completely out of reach for anybody 01:07:29.600 --> 01:07:32.797 other than, you know, a certain class of either extremely rich or foreign 01:07:32.880 --> 01:07:35.757 students. Um, so you need access to federal student loan facility. To get 01:07:35.840 --> 01:07:38.477 access to the federal student loan facility, you need to be an accredited 01:07:38.560 --> 01:07:43.037 university. >> Guess who runs the accreditation council? I don't know 01:07:43.120 --> 01:07:46.317 >> the existing universities, >> right? So, it's a it's a it's a it's a 01:07:46.400 --> 01:07:49.037 it's a it's a it's a selfundaing machine. Like they they decide who the 01:07:49.120 --> 01:07:51.917 new universities are. Guess how many new universities get accredited, right, each 01:07:52.000 --> 01:07:54.317 year to be able? >> Zero. 01:07:54.400 --> 01:07:59.357 >> Zero, right? Um and so as long as that system is in place and as long as they 01:07:59.440 --> 01:08:03.037 have the government wired the way that they do and as long as they control who 01:08:03.120 --> 01:08:05.917 gets access to federal student loan funding, like of course there's not 01:08:06.000 --> 01:08:08.717 going to be any competition. Like of course there can't be a new institution 01:08:08.800 --> 01:08:10.237 that's going to be able to get to scale. 01:08:10.320 --> 01:08:14.317 Like it's not possible. And so if you actually wanted to create a new system 01:08:14.400 --> 01:08:17.357 that was better in the you know I would argue dozens or hundreds of ways it 01:08:17.440 --> 01:08:20.877 could obvious obviously be better if you were starting today um it probably can't 01:08:20.960 --> 01:08:24.157 be done as long as the existing institutions are actually intact. Um and 01:08:24.240 --> 01:08:28.077 this is my counter to to Martin which is like yeah we look we we we if we're 01:08:28.160 --> 01:08:30.797 going to tear down the old there may be a period of disruption before we get to 01:08:30.880 --> 01:08:33.597 the new but we're never going to get to the new if we don't tear down the old. 01:08:33.680 --> 01:08:35.997 When you say counter to Martin, you're talking about the author of Revolt tool 01:08:36.080 --> 01:08:37.677 to the public. >> Martin Gary. Yeah. What Martin Guri says 01:08:37.760 --> 01:08:41.757 is like look, he said basically um what Martin says what Martin says is as 01:08:41.840 --> 01:08:44.397 follows. Um the elites deserve contempt. 01:08:44.480 --> 01:08:46.797 Um but the only thing worse than these 01:08:46.880 --> 01:08:51.437 elites that deserve contempt would be no elites at all. Right. Um and and because 01:08:51.520 --> 01:08:54.477 and he basically says on the other side on the other side of the destruction of 01:08:54.560 --> 01:08:57.757 the elites and the institutions is is nihilism. You're basically left with 01:08:57.840 --> 01:08:59.997 nothing. And and by the way, there is a nihilistic streak. I mean there's a 01:09:00.080 --> 01:09:02.637 nihilistic streak in the in the culture and the politics today. there are people 01:09:02.720 --> 01:09:05.437 who basically would just say, "Yeah, just tear tear the whole system down, 01:09:05.520 --> 01:09:09.037 right? And there without any particular plan for for what follows." And so you 01:09:09.120 --> 01:09:12.397 you I I think he he makes a good point and that you want to be careful that you 01:09:12.480 --> 01:09:15.357 actually have a plan on the other side that you think is actually achievable. 01:09:15.440 --> 01:09:18.397 But but the the but again the counterargument to that is if you're not 01:09:18.480 --> 01:09:22.237 willing to actually tear down the old, you're not going to get to the new. Now 01:09:22.320 --> 01:09:25.117 what's interesting of course is this is what happens every day in business, 01:09:25.200 --> 01:09:28.797 right? So like the entire way like how do how do you know that the capitalist 01:09:28.880 --> 01:09:32.717 system works? The way that you know is that the old companies when they're no 01:09:32.800 --> 01:09:36.077 longer like the best at what they do, they get torn down and then they 01:09:36.160 --> 01:09:38.237 ultimately die and they get replaced by better companies. 01:09:38.320 --> 01:09:40.077 >> Yeah. I haven't seen a Sears in a while. 01:09:40.160 --> 01:09:43.997 >> Exactly. Right. And we know what's what's so interesting is we know in in 01:09:44.080 --> 01:09:48.037 capitalism and market economy, we know that that's the sign of health, right? 01:09:48.120 --> 01:09:50.877 [laughter] That's the sign of how the system is working properly, right? And 01:09:50.960 --> 01:09:53.837 in fact, we get actually judged by antitrust authorities in the government 01:09:53.920 --> 01:09:57.917 on that basis, right? It's like the best defense against antitrust charges is no, 01:09:58.000 --> 01:09:59.917 people are like coming to kill us and they're doing like a really good job of 01:10:00.000 --> 01:10:03.037 it. Like that that's how we know we're doing our job. And in fact, in business, 01:10:03.120 --> 01:10:06.317 we are specifically it is specifically illegal for companies in the same 01:10:06.400 --> 01:10:09.437 industry to get together and plot and conspire and plan and have things like 01:10:09.520 --> 01:10:12.877 these accreditation bureaus. Like we we would get if I created the equivalent in 01:10:12.960 --> 01:10:15.117 my companies of the kind of accreditation bureau that the 01:10:15.200 --> 01:10:18.077 universities have, I'd get straight to federal prison and a trust violation 01:10:18.160 --> 01:10:21.357 Sherman act straight to prison. People have been sent to prison for that. So in 01:10:21.440 --> 01:10:24.797 the business world, we know that you want everything subject to market 01:10:24.880 --> 01:10:27.837 competition. We we know that you want creative destruction. We know that you 01:10:27.920 --> 01:10:31.197 want replacement of the old with with superior new. It's just once we get 01:10:31.280 --> 01:10:33.757 outside of business, we're like, oh, we don't want any of that. We want we want 01:10:33.840 --> 01:10:38.077 basically stagnation and log rolling, right? And in you know, and basically, 01:10:38.160 --> 01:10:40.637 you know, institutional, you know, incestuous like, you know, entanglements 01:10:40.720 --> 01:10:43.837 and conflicts of interest, you know, as far as the eye can see. And then we're 01:10:43.920 --> 01:10:47.677 surprised by the results. >> So let's play it out um as a bit of a 01:10:47.760 --> 01:10:50.317 thought experiment. So let's say that um 01:10:50.400 --> 01:10:54.157 one small banding together of people who 01:10:54.240 --> 01:10:56.397 want to start a new university where 01:10:56.480 --> 01:10:59.917 free exchange of open ideas um where 01:11:00.000 --> 01:11:03.997 unless somebody has you know egregious behavior, violent behavior, you know, 01:11:04.080 --> 01:11:06.877 truly sexually inappropriate behavior against somebody, you know, that 01:11:06.960 --> 01:11:09.677 committing a crime, right? They're allowed to be there. They're allowed to 01:11:09.760 --> 01:11:12.557 be a student or a faculty member um or 01:11:12.640 --> 01:11:17.597 administrator. and let's just say this um accreditation bureau allowed student 01:11:17.680 --> 01:11:20.157 loans for this one particular university or let's say that there was an 01:11:20.240 --> 01:11:23.197 independent source of funding for that university such that students could just 01:11:23.280 --> 01:11:27.277 apply there. They didn't need to be part of this you know this elite accredited 01:11:27.360 --> 01:11:29.997 group which is sounds very mafial like 01:11:30.080 --> 01:11:32.877 frankly um not necessarily violent but 01:11:32.960 --> 01:11:35.357 certainly coercive in this in and uh in 01:11:35.440 --> 01:11:37.917 the way that it walls people out. Um, 01:11:38.000 --> 01:11:40.797 let's say that then there were 01:11:40.880 --> 01:11:43.837 20 or 30 of those or 40 of those. Do you 01:11:43.920 --> 01:11:48.477 think that over time that model would overtake the the existing model? 01:11:48.560 --> 01:11:52.317 >> Is it interesting that those don't exist? 01:11:52.400 --> 01:11:55.437 >> Remember the Sherlock Holmes the dog that didn't bark? 01:11:55.520 --> 01:11:57.197 >> It is interesting those don't exist. 01:11:57.280 --> 01:11:59.677 >> Right. So there's there's two possibilities. One is like nobody wants 01:11:59.760 --> 01:12:03.517 that which I don't believe. Um and then the other is like the system is wired in 01:12:03.600 --> 01:12:05.197 a way that will just simply not allow it. 01:12:05.280 --> 01:12:08.557 >> Right. And you did a hypothetical in which the system would allow it. And my 01:12:08.640 --> 01:12:10.557 response to that is no, of course, the system won't allow that. 01:12:10.640 --> 01:12:13.917 >> Or the people that band together, you know, have enough money or or get enough 01:12:14.000 --> 01:12:17.677 resources to say, look, we can um you know, we can afford to give loans to, 01:12:17.760 --> 01:12:21.117 you know, 10,000 students per year. You know, 10,000 isn't a trivial number when 01:12:21.200 --> 01:12:25.117 thinking about the size of a university and um and you know, they most of them 01:12:25.200 --> 01:12:29.677 hopefully will graduate in four years and there'll be a turnover. And um do 01:12:29.760 --> 01:12:32.077 you think that the great future 01:12:32.160 --> 01:12:34.557 innovators would tend to orient toward 01:12:34.640 --> 01:12:39.117 that model um more than they currently do toward the traditional model? I I 01:12:39.200 --> 01:12:41.997 mean what I'm trying to get back to here is how do you think that the current 01:12:42.080 --> 01:12:45.517 model thwarts innovation? Um as well as 01:12:45.600 --> 01:12:49.677 maybe some ways that it still supports innovation. Um certainly cancellation 01:12:49.760 --> 01:12:51.597 and the the risk of cancellation from 01:12:51.680 --> 01:12:56.717 the way that we framed it earlier is going to um discourage risktakers um of 01:12:56.800 --> 01:13:01.437 the category of risk takers that take risk and every every domain that really 01:13:01.520 --> 01:13:03.597 like to fly close to the sun and sometimes into the sun, 01:13:03.680 --> 01:13:06.717 >> right? Or are doing research that is just not politically 01:13:06.800 --> 01:13:11.757 >> right. Yeah. Looking into issues that you know right that um that you know we 01:13:11.840 --> 01:13:14.797 can't even talk about on this podcast probably without without causing a 01:13:14.880 --> 01:13:17.197 distraction of what we're actually trying to talk about. That gives up the 01:13:17.280 --> 01:13:20.957 whole game right there. >> Exactly. Yeah. [laughter] Um so the uh 01:13:21.040 --> 01:13:24.557 you know I keep a file and it's a written file um because I'm afraid to 01:13:24.640 --> 01:13:28.157 put it in into electronic form of all the things that I'm afraid to talk about 01:13:28.240 --> 01:13:32.237 publicly because I come from a lineage of advisers where all three died young 01:13:32.320 --> 01:13:35.517 and I figure if nothing else I'll die and then you know I'll make it into the 01:13:35.600 --> 01:13:40.397 world and you know when I'll say 5 10 years um 20 years and uh if not you know 01:13:40.480 --> 01:13:42.877 I know with certainty I'm going to die at some point and then we we'll see 01:13:42.960 --> 01:13:45.517 where all those issues stand. In any event, um, 01:13:45.600 --> 01:13:47.277 >> is that list getting longer over time or shorter? 01:13:47.360 --> 01:13:48.557 >> Oh, it's definitely getting longer. 01:13:48.640 --> 01:13:51.037 >> Isn't that interesting? >> Yeah, it's get it's getting much longer. 01:13:51.120 --> 01:13:53.357 I mean, um, there are just so many 01:13:53.440 --> 01:13:55.437 issues that I would love to explore on 01:13:55.520 --> 01:13:59.597 this podcast with experts and, um, that 01:13:59.680 --> 01:14:02.637 I can't explore just bec even if I had a 01:14:02.720 --> 01:14:06.797 panel of them because of the way that things get sound bited and segmented out 01:14:06.880 --> 01:14:11.277 and taken out of context, it's like the whole conversation is lost. And so 01:14:11.360 --> 01:14:12.637 fortunately there are an immense number 01:14:12.720 --> 01:14:15.437 of equally interesting conversations um 01:14:15.520 --> 01:14:19.677 that I'm excited to have. Uh but it is it is a little disturbing. 01:14:19.760 --> 01:14:21.597 >> Do you remember Lysenkoism? 01:14:21.680 --> 01:14:24.397 >> Uh no. >> Oh so Len so famous in the Soviet 01:14:24.480 --> 01:14:26.957 history of the Soviet Union this is a famous thing. So there was a genet 01:14:27.040 --> 01:14:29.997 geneticist named Lysenko. Um >> that's why it sounds familiar but I'm 01:14:30.080 --> 01:14:33.357 not I'm not calling to mind. >> Well he was the guy who did uh he did 01:14:33.440 --> 01:14:37.757 communist gen genetics. Um the field of genetics. The Soviets did not approve of 01:14:37.840 --> 01:14:40.877 the field of genetics because of course they believed in the creation of the new 01:14:40.960 --> 01:14:44.557 man and you know totally equality and genetics did not support that. Um and so 01:14:44.640 --> 01:14:47.517 if you were doing like traditional genetics you were you know going to be 01:14:47.600 --> 01:14:51.197 you know at the very least fired if not if not killed. Um and so this guy Leno 01:14:51.280 --> 01:14:53.997 stood up and said oh I've got Marxist genetics right I've got like a whole new 01:14:54.080 --> 01:14:57.037 field of genetics that basically is politically compliant. And then they 01:14:57.120 --> 01:14:59.917 actually implemented that in the agriculture system of the Soviet Union 01:15:00.000 --> 01:15:02.557 and it's it's the origin of one of the big reasons that the Soviet Union 01:15:02.640 --> 01:15:06.157 actually fell which was they ultimately couldn't feed themselves. So create a 01:15:06.240 --> 01:15:08.717 new notion of biology as it relates to genetics, 01:15:08.800 --> 01:15:11.757 >> politically correct biology, right? And so and so and they they not only created 01:15:11.840 --> 01:15:14.477 it, they taught it, they they mandated it, they required it and then they 01:15:14.560 --> 01:15:17.997 implemented it in agriculture. Um interesting. So so yeah, so it's it's I 01:15:18.080 --> 01:15:20.717 I never understood there's a bunch of things in history I never understood 01:15:20.800 --> 01:15:22.557 until the last decade and that's one of them. 01:15:22.640 --> 01:15:26.077 >> Well, I censor myself at the level of deleting certain things, but I don't 01:15:26.160 --> 01:15:31.917 contort what I do talk about. So I tend to like to play on um lush open fields. 01:15:32.000 --> 01:15:34.477 Yeah. >> Uh just makes my life. This go this goes 01:15:34.560 --> 01:15:37.117 to the rot this goes to the rot and I'll come back to your question but like this 01:15:37.200 --> 01:15:39.837 goes to the rot in the existing system which is we we've by the way I'm no 01:15:39.920 --> 01:15:42.397 different I'm just like you like I'm not I'm trying not to light myself on fire 01:15:42.480 --> 01:15:45.917 either but like the the rot in the existing system and by system I mean the 01:15:46.000 --> 01:15:49.277 institutions and the elites the the rot is that the set of things that are no 01:15:49.360 --> 01:15:50.957 longer allow I mean that list is like 01:15:51.040 --> 01:15:53.197 obviously expanding over time um and 01:15:53.280 --> 01:15:56.317 like that's a real like historically 01:15:56.400 --> 01:15:58.957 speaking that doesn't end in good places 01:15:59.040 --> 01:16:00.717 >> is this group of a particular generation 01:16:00.800 --> 01:16:03.757 that we can look forward to the time when they eventually die off. 01:16:03.840 --> 01:16:07.197 >> It's sort of the boomers plus the millennials. So, >> got a while. 01:16:07.280 --> 01:16:10.157 >> Good good news, bad news. >> I mean, Gen X is weird, right? Gen I'm 01:16:10.240 --> 01:16:12.957 Gen X. Gen X is weird because we we kind of slipped in the middle. We're we're 01:16:13.040 --> 01:16:16.717 kind of we were kind of the um I don't like I don't know how to describe it. We 01:16:16.800 --> 01:16:18.797 were the kind of non-political generation kind of sandwiched between 01:16:18.880 --> 01:16:20.397 the boomers and the millennials. 01:16:20.480 --> 01:16:24.317 >> Gen Z is a very I think open question right now which way they go. I could 01:16:24.400 --> 01:16:28.157 imagine them being actually like much more intense than the millennials 01:16:28.240 --> 01:16:30.637 >> on all these issues. I could also imagine them reacting to the millennials 01:16:30.720 --> 01:16:32.477 and being far more open-minded. 01:16:32.560 --> 01:16:33.917 >> We don't know which way it's going to go here. 01:16:34.000 --> 01:16:35.677 >> It's going to go. It might be different groups of them. 01:16:35.760 --> 01:16:38.957 >> I mean, I'm Gen X also. I'm 47. You're >> 5050. Yeah. 01:16:39.040 --> 01:16:41.917 >> Right. So, more or less same. So, grew up with some John Hughes films and so 01:16:42.000 --> 01:16:46.557 where the the jocks and the hippies and the punks and the were all divided. They 01:16:46.640 --> 01:16:48.237 were all segmented, but then it all sort 01:16:48.320 --> 01:16:51.037 of mish mashed together a few years 01:16:51.120 --> 01:16:55.437 later. Um, and I think that had a lot to do with um, like you said, the sort of 01:16:55.520 --> 01:16:58.637 a-political um, aspect of our generation. 01:16:58.720 --> 01:17:02.637 >> We just knew we the Gen X just knew the Boomers were nuts, right? Like all the I 01:17:02.720 --> 01:17:06.397 mean, this is the canonical, right? The one of the great sitcoms of of of the 01:17:06.480 --> 01:17:09.757 era um, was Family Ties, right, with the character Michael P. Katon. 01:17:09.840 --> 01:17:12.797 >> And he was just like this guy is just like, "Yeah, my boomer hippie parents 01:17:12.880 --> 01:17:15.037 are crazy. Like I'm just going to like go into business and like actually do 01:17:15.120 --> 01:17:17.597 something productive." Like there was something like iconic about that 01:17:17.680 --> 01:17:19.757 character in our culture. And you know, people like me were like, "Yeah, 01:17:19.840 --> 01:17:22.077 obviously you go into business, >> you know, going to like political 01:17:22.160 --> 01:17:24.877 activism." And then, you know, it's just like, man, that came whipping back 01:17:24.960 --> 01:17:27.917 around with the next generation. Um, so just to touch real quick on the 01:17:28.000 --> 01:17:30.237 university thing. So, look, there are people trying to do, and I'm actually 01:17:30.320 --> 01:17:33.117 going to do a thing this afternoon with the University of Austin, which is which 01:17:33.200 --> 01:17:35.597 is which is which is one of these. And so, there are people trying to do new 01:17:35.680 --> 01:17:39.117 universities. Um, you know, I I like I say, it's certainly possible. I hope 01:17:39.200 --> 01:17:41.517 they succeed. I'm pulling for them. I think it'd be great. I think it'd be 01:17:41.600 --> 01:17:42.877 great if there were a lot more of them. 01:17:42.960 --> 01:17:44.077 >> Who founded this university? 01:17:44.160 --> 01:17:47.597 >> Uh, this is a whole group of people. I don't want to um freelance on that 01:17:47.680 --> 01:17:49.357 because I don't know originally who the idea was. 01:17:49.440 --> 01:17:51.277 >> University of Austin, not UT Austin. 01:17:51.360 --> 01:17:54.157 >> Yeah. So, this is not UT Austin. It's called it's called University of Austin 01:17:54.240 --> 01:17:58.317 or they call it I think it's UAT or what is it? UATX. 01:17:58.400 --> 01:18:03.597 >> Um and so um and it's a lot of very sharp people associated with it. Um and 01:18:03.680 --> 01:18:06.157 um then they're they're they're going to try to very very much exactly like what 01:18:06.240 --> 01:18:08.797 you described. They're going to try to do a new one. I would just tell you like 01:18:08.880 --> 01:18:12.797 the wall of opposition that they're up against is profound, right? Um, and part 01:18:12.880 --> 01:18:15.677 of it is economic, which is can they ever get access to federal student 01:18:15.760 --> 01:18:18.957 lending? And I, you know, I I hope that they can, but I I I, you know, it seems 01:18:19.040 --> 01:18:21.517 nearly inconceivable the way the system's rigged today. 01:18:21.600 --> 01:18:24.477 >> Um, and then, you know, the other is just like they're going to they already 01:18:24.560 --> 01:18:28.557 have come under, I mean, any any anybody any [laughter] anybody who publicly 01:18:28.640 --> 01:18:30.877 associates with them who is in traditional academia immediately gets 01:18:30.960 --> 01:18:33.357 lit on fire, right? And there's like, you know, cancellation campaigns. Like, 01:18:33.440 --> 01:18:35.597 so they're up against a wall of social ostracism. 01:18:35.680 --> 01:18:38.797 >> Wow. >> Um, they're up against a wall of, you know, press attacks. um they're up 01:18:38.880 --> 01:18:42.477 against a wall of um you know people just like doing the thing pouncing on 01:18:42.560 --> 01:18:44.797 any anytime anybody says anything they're going to try to like burn the 01:18:44.880 --> 01:18:47.277 place down. This reminds me of like like 01:18:47.360 --> 01:18:49.517 um Jerry Springer episodes and Heraldo 01:18:49.600 --> 01:18:52.557 Rivera episodes where um you know it's 01:18:52.640 --> 01:18:56.317 like if a teen listened to um you know 01:18:56.400 --> 01:18:59.517 like Danzig or Marilyn Manson type music 01:18:59.600 --> 01:19:03.477 or Metallica that they were considered a devil worshipper like we right now we 01:19:03.560 --> 01:19:06.637 [clears throat] just laugh right we're like that's crazy right people listen to 01:19:06.720 --> 01:19:08.237 music with all sorts of lyrics and ideas 01:19:08.320 --> 01:19:11.597 and looks and and like that's crazy. Um, 01:19:11.680 --> 01:19:15.757 but you know, there were people legitimately sent to prison. I think it 01:19:15.840 --> 01:19:19.837 was the West Memphis three, right? These kids out in West Memphis that looked 01:19:19.920 --> 01:19:23.917 different, acted different, were accused of murders that eventually it was um 01:19:24.000 --> 01:19:27.757 made clear they clearly didn't commit, but they were in prison because of the 01:19:27.840 --> 01:19:31.037 music they listened to. I mean, this sounds very similar to that. And I 01:19:31.120 --> 01:19:34.317 remember seeing bumper cigars, free the West Memphis 3, and I thought this was 01:19:34.400 --> 01:19:38.157 some crazy thing. you look into it and this isn't uh it's a little bit niche 01:19:38.240 --> 01:19:40.717 but um I mean these are real lives and 01:19:40.800 --> 01:19:43.997 there was a active uh witch hunt for 01:19:44.080 --> 01:19:47.997 people that looked different and acted different and yet now we're sort of in 01:19:48.080 --> 01:19:52.957 this inverted world where um on the one hand we're all told that we can express 01:19:53.040 --> 01:19:55.917 ourselves however we want but on the other hand you can't get a bunch of 01:19:56.000 --> 01:19:57.597 people together to take classes where 01:19:57.680 --> 01:20:03.677 they learn biology and sociology and econ in Texas 01:20:03.760 --> 01:20:06.157 wild >> yes also So the you know the simple 01:20:06.240 --> 01:20:09.357 explanation is it's this is puritanism right? So this is the original American 01:20:09.440 --> 01:20:13.437 pur puritanism that just like works itself out through the system in 01:20:13.520 --> 01:20:15.917 different ways at different times. You know there's this phenomen there's a 01:20:16.000 --> 01:20:18.957 religious phenomenon in America called the the great awakenings. There's just 01:20:19.040 --> 01:20:21.357 there there will be these periods in American history where there's basically 01:20:21.440 --> 01:20:24.077 religiosity fades and then there will be this snapback effect where you'll have 01:20:24.160 --> 01:20:27.997 this basically this you know frenzy basically of religion. You know in the 01:20:28.080 --> 01:20:30.557 old days it would have been you know tent revivals and people speaking in 01:20:30.640 --> 01:20:34.157 tongues and all this stuff. Um and then in the modern world it's it's you know 01:20:34.240 --> 01:20:37.117 it's it's of the form that we're living through right now. Um and so yeah, it's 01:20:37.200 --> 01:20:41.517 just basically these waves of sort of American religious and you know remember 01:20:41.600 --> 01:20:44.877 like religion in our time religious impulses in our time don't get express 01:20:44.960 --> 01:20:47.437 you because we live in we live in more advanced times right we live in 01:20:47.520 --> 01:20:50.317 scientifically informed times and so religious impulses in our time don't 01:20:50.400 --> 01:20:54.717 show up as overtly religious right they show up in a secularized form 01:20:54.800 --> 01:20:57.517 >> right which of course conveniently is is is therefore not subject to the first 01:20:57.600 --> 01:21:01.197 amendment separation of church and state right as long as the church is secular 01:21:01.280 --> 01:21:04.157 there's no problem right and so but but we're we're acting out these kind of 01:21:04.240 --> 01:21:06.397 religious scripts over and over again and we're in the middle of another 01:21:06.480 --> 01:21:08.237 religious frenzy. 01:21:08.320 --> 01:21:13.597 >> There's a phrase that I hear a lot and um I don't necessarily believe it, but I 01:21:13.680 --> 01:21:17.197 want your thoughts on it, which is the pendulum always swings back. 01:21:17.280 --> 01:21:19.997 >> Yeah. Not quite. >> Well, so that's how I feel too because, 01:21:20.080 --> 01:21:22.237 you know, I'll take that. 01:21:22.320 --> 01:21:27.117 >> Take any number of things that we've talked about and um you know, gosh, it's 01:21:27.200 --> 01:21:30.797 so crazy, you know, the the way things have have gone with institutions or it's 01:21:30.880 --> 01:21:34.157 so crazy the way things have gone with social media or it's so crazy fill in 01:21:34.240 --> 01:21:37.677 the blank. And people will say, well, you know, the 01:21:37.760 --> 01:21:41.597 pendulum always swings back like like the like it's the stock market or something. 01:21:41.680 --> 01:21:46.157 >> You know, after every crash, there'll be an eventual boom and vice versa. 01:21:46.240 --> 01:21:47.277 >> By the way, that's not true either. 01:21:47.360 --> 01:21:49.357 Right. >> Right. >> Most most stock markets we have, of 01:21:49.440 --> 01:21:51.517 course, survivorship. It's all survivorship. Everything is survivor. 01:21:51.600 --> 01:21:54.237 It's all everything you just said is obviously survivorship bias. Right. So, 01:21:54.320 --> 01:21:57.917 if you look globally, most stock markets over time crash and burn and never 01:21:58.000 --> 01:22:01.277 recover. >> The American stock market hasn't always recovered, 01:22:01.360 --> 01:22:02.877 >> right? I was referring to the American stock market. 01:22:02.960 --> 01:22:04.797 >> Yeah. right >> globally. But the reason everybody 01:22:04.880 --> 01:22:06.877 refers to the American stock market is because it's the one that doesn't do 01:22:06.960 --> 01:22:10.797 that. [snorts] The other 200 or whatever [laughter] that crash and burn and never 01:22:10.880 --> 01:22:13.917 recover. Like let's go check in on the, you know, an Argentina stock market 01:22:14.000 --> 01:22:15.997 right now. Like I don't think it's coming back anytime soon. 01:22:16.080 --> 01:22:20.557 >> Yeah. My father is Argentine and immigrated to the US in the 1960s. So he 01:22:20.640 --> 01:22:21.837 would definitely agree with that. 01:22:21.920 --> 01:22:24.477 >> Yeah. Like it doesn't come. It doesn't come, you know, like when when their 01:22:24.560 --> 01:22:28.237 stocks crashed, they don't come back. Um so and then you knowism like the Soviet 01:22:28.320 --> 01:22:29.597 Union never recovered from lysencoism. 01:22:29.680 --> 01:22:33.037 It never came back. It led to the end of the country. you know, literally the 01:22:33.120 --> 01:22:35.997 things that took down the Soviet Union were oil and and wheat and the wheat 01:22:36.080 --> 01:22:40.477 thing. You can trace the crisis back to lysencoism. Um and so, um yeah, no, 01:22:40.560 --> 01:22:44.077 look, I pendulum always swings back is true only in the cases where the 01:22:44.160 --> 01:22:47.677 pendulum swings back. Everybody just conveniently forgets all the other 01:22:47.760 --> 01:22:49.117 circumstances where that doesn't happen. 01:22:49.200 --> 01:22:53.037 One of the things people you see this in business also, um people have a really 01:22:53.120 --> 01:22:55.997 hard time confronting really bad news. 01:22:56.080 --> 01:22:59.597 >> I don't know if you've noticed that. Um I think like every doctor who's 01:22:59.680 --> 01:23:03.597 listening right now is like, "Yeah, no shit." But like like there are situ you 01:23:03.680 --> 01:23:07.357 see it in business there are situations that it's Star Trek remember Star Trek 01:23:07.440 --> 01:23:10.717 the Kobayashi Maru uh simulator right so the big lesson to become a Star Trek 01:23:10.800 --> 01:23:13.277 captain is you had to go through the simulation called the Kobayashimaru and 01:23:13.360 --> 01:23:16.717 the point was there's no way to it's a no-win scenario right and then the and 01:23:16.800 --> 01:23:19.837 then it turned out like Captain Kirk was the only person to ever win the scenario 01:23:19.920 --> 01:23:22.397 and the way that he did it was he he went in ahead of time and hacked the 01:23:22.480 --> 01:23:25.597 simulator right it was the only way to actually get through and then there was 01:23:25.680 --> 01:23:29.517 a debate whether to fire him or make him a captain so they made him a captain um 01:23:29.600 --> 01:23:33.357 and like you know problem is in real life like we we you do get the Kobayashi 01:23:33.440 --> 01:23:36.317 Maru on a regular basis like there are actual no-win situations that you can't 01:23:36.400 --> 01:23:39.997 work your way out of and as a leader you can't ever comp to that right because 01:23:40.080 --> 01:23:42.317 you have to like carry things forward and you have to look for every every 01:23:42.400 --> 01:23:44.797 possible choice you can but like every once in a while you do run into a 01:23:44.880 --> 01:23:48.077 situation where it's really not recoverable and at least I found people 01:23:48.160 --> 01:23:51.437 just like cannot cope with that and so and so what happens is they basically 01:23:51.520 --> 01:23:55.917 then they basically just like exclude it from their memory that it ever happened. 01:23:56.000 --> 01:23:58.797 I'm glad you brought up simulators because I want to make sure that we talk 01:23:58.880 --> 01:24:02.077 about um the new and emerging landscape 01:24:02.160 --> 01:24:05.837 of AI, artificial intelligence. Um, and 01:24:05.920 --> 01:24:09.517 I could try and uh smooth our 01:24:09.600 --> 01:24:12.237 conversation of a moment ago uh with the 01:24:12.320 --> 01:24:14.477 this one uh by creating some clever 01:24:14.560 --> 01:24:16.797 segway, but I'm not going to except I'm 01:24:16.880 --> 01:24:19.997 going to ask is there a possibility that 01:24:20.080 --> 01:24:24.397 AI is going to remedy some of what we're talking about? Um let's make sure that 01:24:24.480 --> 01:24:28.157 we earmark that for discussion a little bit later. But first off, because some 01:24:28.240 --> 01:24:32.717 of um the listeners of this podcast might not be as familiar with AI as 01:24:32.800 --> 01:24:36.157 perhaps they should be. We've all heard about artificial intelligence. People 01:24:36.240 --> 01:24:38.877 hear about machine learning, etc. But um 01:24:38.960 --> 01:24:40.797 it'd be great if you could define for us 01:24:40.880 --> 01:24:44.877 what AI is. Um people almost immediately 01:24:44.960 --> 01:24:48.957 hear AI and think, okay, robots taking over. I'm going to wake up and I'm going 01:24:49.040 --> 01:24:52.717 to, you know, strapped to the bed and my organs are going to be pulled out of me. 01:24:52.800 --> 01:24:54.237 um that robots are going to be in my 01:24:54.320 --> 01:24:55.837 bank account. They're going to kill all 01:24:55.920 --> 01:25:01.277 my children and um dystopia um for most 01:25:01.360 --> 01:25:03.917 um clearly that's not the way it's going 01:25:04.000 --> 01:25:07.677 to go. Um if you believe that machines 01:25:07.760 --> 01:25:10.477 can augment human intelligence and human 01:25:10.560 --> 01:25:13.597 intelligence is a good thing. So um tell 01:25:13.680 --> 01:25:17.757 us what AI is and um where you think it 01:25:17.840 --> 01:25:19.917 can take us both good and bad. 01:25:20.000 --> 01:25:23.597 >> Yeah. So, so, so there was a big debate when the computer was first invented, 01:25:23.680 --> 01:25:27.677 which was in the 1930s, 1940s. This people like Alan Turing and John von 01:25:27.760 --> 01:25:32.557 Norman and these people. Um, and the big debate at the time, um, was because they 01:25:32.640 --> 01:25:33.597 knew they wanted to build computers. 01:25:33.680 --> 01:25:36.477 They they had the basic idea. Um, and you know, there had been like 01:25:36.560 --> 01:25:39.037 calculating machines before that and there had been like there had been these 01:25:39.120 --> 01:25:41.677 looms that you basically programmed with punch cards and so there was like a 01:25:41.760 --> 01:25:44.237 there was a prehistory to computers that had to do with building sort of 01:25:44.320 --> 01:25:47.197 increasingly complex calculating machines. So they were kind of on a 01:25:47.280 --> 01:25:49.597 track, but they knew they were going to be able to build they call a general 01:25:49.680 --> 01:25:52.317 purpose computer that could basically you could program in the way that you 01:25:52.400 --> 01:25:55.917 program computers today. Um but they had a big debate early on which is should 01:25:56.000 --> 01:26:00.157 the fundamental architecture of the computer be based on either a like 01:26:00.240 --> 01:26:03.997 calculating machines like cash registers and looms and right and other things 01:26:04.080 --> 01:26:07.757 like that or should it be based on a model of the human brain? Um and they 01:26:07.840 --> 01:26:11.597 actually had this idea of computers modeling the human brain back then. Um 01:26:11.680 --> 01:26:14.797 and this was this concept of so-called neural networks. Um, and it's it's 01:26:14.880 --> 01:26:17.917 actually fairly astonishing from a from a research standpoint. The original 01:26:18.000 --> 01:26:21.917 paper on neural networks actually was published in 1943, right? So so so they 01:26:22.000 --> 01:26:24.237 didn't have our level of neuroscience, but like they actually knew about the 01:26:24.320 --> 01:26:26.717 neuron and they actually had a theory of like neurons interconnecting and 01:26:26.800 --> 01:26:31.597 synapses and information processing in the brain even even back then. Um, and a 01:26:31.680 --> 01:26:34.397 lot of people at the time basically said, you know what, we should basically 01:26:34.480 --> 01:26:37.437 have the computer from the start model after the human brain because like if we 01:26:37.520 --> 01:26:39.757 could if the computer could do everything that the human brain can do, 01:26:39.840 --> 01:26:42.317 like that would be the best possible general purpose computer and then you 01:26:42.400 --> 01:26:44.797 could have it do jobs and you could have it, you know, create art and you could 01:26:44.880 --> 01:26:48.317 have it do all kinds of things like humans can do. Um, it turns out that 01:26:48.400 --> 01:26:52.797 didn't happen um in our world. What happened instead was the industry went 01:26:52.880 --> 01:26:54.957 in the other direction. It went basically in the model of the 01:26:55.040 --> 01:26:57.677 calculating machine or the cash register. And I I think practically 01:26:57.760 --> 01:27:00.797 speaking that kind of had to be the case because that was actually the technology 01:27:00.880 --> 01:27:05.357 that was was practical at the time. Um but but that's the path. And so what 01:27:05.440 --> 01:27:08.957 what we all have experiences with up to and including the iPhone in our pocket 01:27:09.040 --> 01:27:12.557 is computers built on that basically calculating machine model not the human 01:27:12.640 --> 01:27:16.317 brain model. And so what that means is computers as we have come to understand 01:27:16.400 --> 01:27:20.557 them you know they're basically like you know mathematical sants you know at best 01:27:20.640 --> 01:27:23.517 right so they're like they're really good at like you know doing lots of 01:27:23.600 --> 01:27:26.877 mathematical calculations. They're really good at executing these extremely 01:27:26.960 --> 01:27:30.877 detailed computer programs. They're hyper literal. Um, one of the things you 01:27:30.960 --> 01:27:34.157 learn early when you're a programmer is as a pro as the human programmer, you 01:27:34.240 --> 01:27:36.637 have to get every single instruction you give the computer correct because it 01:27:36.720 --> 01:27:38.717 will do exactly what you tell it to do. 01:27:38.800 --> 01:27:42.237 And and and bugs in computer programs are always a mistake on the part of the 01:27:42.320 --> 01:27:44.397 programmer. >> Interesting. >> You never blame the computer. You always 01:27:44.480 --> 01:27:47.597 blame the the programmer because that that that's the nature of the thing that 01:27:47.680 --> 01:27:50.477 you're dealing with. >> One down score off and the whole thing 01:27:50.560 --> 01:27:53.197 >> Yeah. Yeah. And it's the it's the programmer's fault. Um, and if you talk 01:27:53.280 --> 01:27:55.277 to any programmer, they'll agree with this. will be like, "Yeah, if there's a 01:27:55.360 --> 01:27:58.157 problem, it's it's my fault. I I did it." I can't blame the computer. The 01:27:58.240 --> 01:28:02.397 computer has no judgment. It has no ability to interpret, synthesize, you 01:28:02.480 --> 01:28:04.957 know, develop an independent understanding of anything. It's just 01:28:05.040 --> 01:28:08.717 it's literally just doing what I tell it to do step by step. So, so for 80 years, 01:28:08.800 --> 01:28:11.917 we've had this just, you know, this very kind of hyperliteral, you know, kind of 01:28:12.000 --> 01:28:14.477 kind of model computers. These are called uh technically these are what are 01:28:14.560 --> 01:28:18.717 called vonoyman machines based after the mathematician John vonman. They run in 01:28:18.800 --> 01:28:21.357 that way and they've been very successful and very important and our 01:28:21.440 --> 01:28:24.637 world has been shaped by them. But there was always this other idea out there 01:28:24.720 --> 01:28:27.837 which is okay, how about a completely different approach which is based based 01:28:27.920 --> 01:28:31.197 much more on how the human brain operates. Um or or at least our our kind 01:28:31.280 --> 01:28:33.917 of best understanding of how the human brain operates, right? Because those 01:28:34.000 --> 01:28:37.837 aren't the same thing. Um it basically says, okay, what what if you could have 01:28:37.920 --> 01:28:39.997 a computer instead of being hyperliteral, what if you could have it 01:28:40.080 --> 01:28:44.717 actually be conceptual, right? Um and creative and able to synthesize 01:28:44.800 --> 01:28:49.037 information, right? and able to draw judgments and able to, you know, uh, 01:28:49.120 --> 01:28:52.877 behave in, um, you know, in ways that are not deterministic, but are rather 01:28:52.960 --> 01:28:57.677 um, you know, creative, right? And and so and and and and the applications for 01:28:57.760 --> 01:29:01.917 this, of course, are endless. And so, for example, the self-driving car, the 01:29:02.000 --> 01:29:05.197 only way that you can make a you you cannot program a computer with rules to 01:29:05.280 --> 01:29:07.997 make it a self-driving car. You have to do what Tesla and Whimo and these other 01:29:08.080 --> 01:29:10.637 companies have done now. You have to use AI, right? You have to use this other 01:29:10.720 --> 01:29:13.997 architecture. uh and you have to basically teach them how to recognize 01:29:14.080 --> 01:29:17.037 objects in images at high speeds the same way basically the same way the 01:29:17.120 --> 01:29:19.597 human brain does and so those are those are so-called neural networks running 01:29:19.680 --> 01:29:22.477 inside >> so essentially let the machine operate 01:29:22.560 --> 01:29:25.757 based on priors you know we we almost 01:29:25.840 --> 01:29:30.237 clipped a uh a boulder going up this particular drive and so therefore this 01:29:30.320 --> 01:29:34.477 shape that previously the machine didn't recognize as a boulder it now introduces 01:29:34.560 --> 01:29:38.077 to its catalog of boulders is that is that >> yeah we've got a good good example or 01:29:38.160 --> 01:29:41.597 let's even make it even even starker for self-driving car um there's something in 01:29:41.680 --> 01:29:45.117 the road, is it a small child or a or a plastic shopping bag being blown by the 01:29:45.200 --> 01:29:48.477 wind? >> Very important difference. 01:29:48.560 --> 01:29:50.957 >> If it's a shopping bag, you you definitely want to go straight through 01:29:51.040 --> 01:29:53.597 it because if you deviate off course, you might, you know, hit, you know, 01:29:53.680 --> 01:29:55.997 you're going to make a fast, you know, it's the same it's the same challenge we 01:29:56.080 --> 01:29:58.157 have when we're driving. Like you don't you don't want to swerve to avoid a 01:29:58.240 --> 01:29:59.997 shopping bag because you might hit something that you didn't see on the 01:30:00.080 --> 01:30:02.317 side. If it's a small child, for sure you want to swerve, 01:30:02.400 --> 01:30:06.077 >> right? Um and so, but it's very but like in in that moment and you know, small 01:30:06.160 --> 01:30:08.077 children come in different like shapes and descriptions and are wearing 01:30:08.160 --> 01:30:10.717 different kinds of clothes. They might tumble onto the road the same way a bag 01:30:10.800 --> 01:30:12.157 would tumble. >> Yeah, they might look like they're 01:30:12.240 --> 01:30:14.877 tumbling. And by the way, they might not be they might be wearing a Halloween 01:30:14.960 --> 01:30:19.037 mask, right? So the face they might not have a recognizable human face, right? 01:30:19.120 --> 01:30:22.157 And it might or it might be a kid with, you know, one leg, right? You definitely 01:30:22.240 --> 01:30:24.637 want to not hit those, right? Like so. 01:30:24.720 --> 01:30:28.717 So you you can't this is what basically we figured out is you can't apply the 01:30:28.800 --> 01:30:32.397 rules-based approach of a Vanoyman machine to basically real life and 01:30:32.480 --> 01:30:35.757 expect the computer to be in any way understanding or resilient to change to 01:30:35.840 --> 01:30:38.317 to basically things happening in real life. And this is why there's always 01:30:38.400 --> 01:30:41.197 been such a stark divide between what the machine can do and what the and what 01:30:41.280 --> 01:30:45.037 the human can do. Um and so basically what's happened is in the last decade 01:30:45.120 --> 01:30:48.237 that second type of computer, the neural network based computer has started to 01:30:48.320 --> 01:30:52.077 actually work. U it started to work actually first interestingly in vision 01:30:52.160 --> 01:30:54.637 >> recognizing objects and images which is why the self-driving car is starting to 01:30:54.720 --> 01:30:56.637 work. Um >> face recognition face recognition. I 01:30:56.720 --> 01:30:59.357 mean, when I was started off in visual neuroscience, which is really my 01:30:59.440 --> 01:31:02.317 original home, um, in neuroscience, the 01:31:02.400 --> 01:31:04.957 idea that a computer or a camera could 01:31:05.040 --> 01:31:06.637 do face recognition better than a human 01:31:06.720 --> 01:31:10.717 was like a very low probability event. 01:31:10.800 --> 01:31:14.157 Um, based on the technology we had at the time, based on the understanding of 01:31:14.240 --> 01:31:15.517 the face recognition cells and the 01:31:15.600 --> 01:31:18.397 fusifform gyus, now you would 01:31:18.480 --> 01:31:22.957 >> be smartest to put all your money on the machine. Yeah. You know, you want to 01:31:23.040 --> 01:31:27.037 find faces in airports, even with masks on and you know, at profile versus 01:31:27.120 --> 01:31:29.597 straight on machines can do it far 01:31:29.680 --> 01:31:31.437 better than most all people. I mean, 01:31:31.520 --> 01:31:34.317 there these super recognizers, but even 01:31:34.400 --> 01:31:38.957 they can't match the best machines. Now, 10 years ago, what I just said was the 01:31:39.040 --> 01:31:40.237 exact reverse, >> right? That's right. 01:31:40.320 --> 01:31:43.197 >> Yeah. >> All right. So, fa faces, handwriting, 01:31:43.280 --> 01:31:46.717 um, right? Um, uh, and then voice, right? Being able to understand voice. 01:31:46.800 --> 01:31:49.837 Um, like if if you use just as a user, if you use Google Docs, it has a 01:31:49.920 --> 01:31:52.157 built-in voice transcription. They have sort of the best industry leading kind 01:31:52.240 --> 01:31:55.117 of voice transcription. If you use voice transcription in Google Docs, it's 01:31:55.200 --> 01:31:58.157 breathtakingly good. You you just speak into it and it just like types what 01:31:58.240 --> 01:32:00.077 you're what you're saying. >> Well, that's good because in my phone, 01:32:00.160 --> 01:32:02.717 every once in a while, I'll say, "I need to go pick up a few things." And it'll 01:32:02.800 --> 01:32:04.877 say, "I need to pick up a few thongs." 01:32:04.960 --> 01:32:09.597 And so, um, Apple needs to get on board uh, whatever the voice recognition is 01:32:09.680 --> 01:32:14.157 that Google's using. >> Maybe it knows you better than you think. Um, [laughter] so 01:32:14.240 --> 01:32:16.637 >> that was not the topic I was avoiding discussing, you know. 01:32:16.720 --> 01:32:17.757 >> No. So, that's on the list, right? 01:32:17.840 --> 01:32:21.677 That's on your your list. Um so um so look there there's actually this there's 01:32:21.760 --> 01:32:24.237 there's a reason actually why Google's so good and Apple is not right now at 01:32:24.320 --> 01:32:26.957 that kind of thing and it actually goes to actually the it's actually an 01:32:27.040 --> 01:32:28.637 ideological thing of all of all things 01:32:28.720 --> 01:32:32.157 um uh Apple does not permit pooling of 01:32:32.240 --> 01:32:37.117 data um for any purpose including training AI whereas Google does um and 01:32:37.200 --> 01:32:40.717 and Apple's just like stake their brand on privacy and among that is sort of a 01:32:40.800 --> 01:32:44.237 pledge that they don't like pull your data um and so all of Apple's AI is like 01:32:44.320 --> 01:32:47.757 AI that has to happen like locally on your phone um whereas Google's AI can 01:32:47.840 --> 01:32:50.557 happen in the cloud Right? It can happen across pool data. Now, by the way, some 01:32:50.640 --> 01:32:53.437 people think that that's bad because they think pooling data is bad. But but 01:32:53.520 --> 01:32:55.677 that that's an example of the shift that's happening in the industry right 01:32:55.760 --> 01:32:59.117 now, which is you have this separation between the people who are embracing the 01:32:59.200 --> 01:33:02.877 new way of training AIs and the people who basically for whatever reason are not. 01:33:02.960 --> 01:33:05.997 >> You um excuse me. Um you you say that some people think it's bad because of 01:33:06.080 --> 01:33:09.597 privacy issues or they think it's bad because of the a reduced functionality 01:33:09.680 --> 01:33:12.077 of that AI. >> Oh no. So you're you're definitely going 01:33:12.160 --> 01:33:16.717 to get So so um so there's three reasons AI has started to work. One of them is 01:33:16.800 --> 01:33:21.197 just simply larger data sets um larger amounts of data. So so so specifically 01:33:21.280 --> 01:33:24.797 the reason why objects and images are now the reason machines are now better 01:33:24.880 --> 01:33:28.397 than humans at recognizing objects, images or recognizing faces is because 01:33:28.480 --> 01:33:32.157 modern facial recognition AIs are trained across all photos on the 01:33:32.240 --> 01:33:35.357 internet of people, billions and billions and billions of photos, right? 01:33:35.440 --> 01:33:38.637 Unlimited number of photos of people on the internet. Um attempts to train 01:33:38.720 --> 01:33:41.677 facial recognition systems 10 or 20 years ago, they'd be trained on, you 01:33:41.760 --> 01:33:45.837 know, thousands or tens of thousands of photos. So the input data is simply much 01:33:45.920 --> 01:33:47.757 more vast, >> much larger. And this is the reason to 01:33:47.840 --> 01:33:50.797 get to the conclusion on this. This is the reason why chat GPT works so well is 01:33:50.880 --> 01:33:54.317 chat GPT, one of the reasons chatgpt works so well is it's trained on the 01:33:54.400 --> 01:33:57.917 entire internet of text. And the entire internet of text was not something that 01:33:58.000 --> 01:34:01.517 was available for you to train an AI on until it came to actually exist itself, 01:34:01.600 --> 01:34:04.797 which is new in the last, you know, basically decade. So in the case of face 01:34:04.880 --> 01:34:09.037 recognition, I could see how having a much larger input data set would be 01:34:09.120 --> 01:34:13.037 beneficial if the goal is to recognize mark injuries in space because you are 01:34:13.120 --> 01:34:16.637 looking for signal to noise against everything else, right? But in the case 01:34:16.720 --> 01:34:19.037 of chat GPT, when you're pooling all 01:34:19.120 --> 01:34:21.997 text on the internet and you ask chat 01:34:22.080 --> 01:34:24.397 GPT to say um construct a paragraph 01:34:24.480 --> 01:34:27.357 about um Mark Andre's prediction of the 01:34:27.440 --> 01:34:29.597 future of human beings over the next 10 01:34:29.680 --> 01:34:33.677 years um and the uh likely to be most 01:34:33.760 --> 01:34:36.637 successful industries give chat JPT that 01:34:36.720 --> 01:34:39.517 if it's pulling across all text, how 01:34:39.600 --> 01:34:42.157 does it know what is authentically Mark 01:34:42.240 --> 01:34:44.317 Andre's text? Because in the case of 01:34:44.400 --> 01:34:47.117 face recognition, you have a um you've 01:34:47.200 --> 01:34:50.077 got a standard to work from a a verified 01:34:50.160 --> 01:34:53.277 image versus everything else. Um in the 01:34:53.360 --> 01:34:57.117 case of text, um you have to make sure that what you're starting with is 01:34:57.200 --> 01:35:01.277 verified text from your mouth. So, um, which makes sense if it's coming from 01:35:01.360 --> 01:35:03.757 video, but then if that video is, um, 01:35:03.840 --> 01:35:06.957 deep faked, all of a sudden what's true, 01:35:07.040 --> 01:35:11.357 your your your valid Mark Andrees is of 01:35:11.440 --> 01:35:15.997 question and then everything chat GPT is producing that is then of question, 01:35:16.080 --> 01:35:19.197 >> right? So, I would say there's a before and after thing here. There's like a 01:35:19.280 --> 01:35:22.717 before there's like a before chat GPT and after GPT question, right? Because 01:35:22.800 --> 01:35:26.397 the existence of GPT itself change changes changes the the answer. So 01:35:26.480 --> 01:35:29.437 before chat GPT, so the reason the version you're using today is trained on 01:35:29.520 --> 01:35:32.477 data up till September 2021. It's they're caught off by the train their 01:35:32.560 --> 01:35:35.837 training set up till September 2021 almost all text on the internet was 01:35:35.920 --> 01:35:39.517 written by a human being. Um and then most of that was written by people under 01:35:39.600 --> 01:35:42.637 their own names. Some of it wasn't, but a lot but a lot of it was. And why you 01:35:42.720 --> 01:35:45.037 know it's from me is because it was published in a magazine under my name or 01:35:45.120 --> 01:35:48.397 it's a podcast transcript and it's it's under my name. And and generally 01:35:48.480 --> 01:35:51.037 speaking, if you just did a search on like what are things Mark Anderson has 01:35:51.120 --> 01:35:55.197 written and said, 90 plus% of that would be would be correct. And there look, 01:35:55.280 --> 01:35:58.237 somebody might have written a fake, you know, parody article or something like 01:35:58.320 --> 01:36:01.357 that, but like not that many people were spending that much time writing like 01:36:01.440 --> 01:36:03.117 fake articles about like things that I said. Right. 01:36:03.200 --> 01:36:04.797 >> So many people can pretend to be you. 01:36:04.880 --> 01:36:07.197 >> Exactly. Right. And so generally speaking, you can you can kind of get 01:36:07.280 --> 01:36:10.157 your arms around the idea that there's a corpus of material associated with me or 01:36:10.240 --> 01:36:12.717 by the way, same thing with you. There's a corpus of of YouTube transcripts and 01:36:12.800 --> 01:36:15.517 other your academic papers and talks you've given and you can kind of get 01:36:15.600 --> 01:36:17.597 your hands around that. And that's that's how these systems are trained. 01:36:17.680 --> 01:36:19.837 They they take all that data collectively. They put it in there and 01:36:19.920 --> 01:36:23.277 and that's why this works as well as it does. And that's why if you ask chat GPT 01:36:23.360 --> 01:36:27.837 to speak or write like me or like you or like you know somebody else it it will 01:36:27.920 --> 01:36:30.797 actually generally do a really good job because it has that it has all of our 01:36:30.880 --> 01:36:35.357 prior uh text in it in its training data. Um that said from here on out this 01:36:35.440 --> 01:36:38.157 gets harder and of course the reason this gets harder is because now we have 01:36:38.240 --> 01:36:42.157 AI that can create text and we have AI that can create text at industrial 01:36:42.240 --> 01:36:45.197 scale. >> Is it watermarked as AI generated text? 01:36:45.280 --> 01:36:47.037 >> No. >> How hard would it be to do that? 01:36:47.120 --> 01:36:50.157 >> I think it's impossible. Um I think it's impossible. There are people who are 01:36:50.240 --> 01:36:52.797 trying to do that. This is a hot topic in the classroom. I was just talking to 01:36:52.880 --> 01:36:55.677 a friend who's got like a 14-y old kid in in in a class and there's like these 01:36:55.760 --> 01:36:59.117 recurring scandals like every kid in the class is using chat GPT to like write 01:36:59.200 --> 01:37:04.077 their essays or to help them write their essays. Um and then the um uh the the 01:37:04.160 --> 01:37:07.597 teacher is using one of there's a tool that you can use that it purports to be 01:37:07.680 --> 01:37:10.797 able to tell you, you know, whether something was written by Chad GPT, but 01:37:10.880 --> 01:37:14.717 it's like only right like 60% of the time. And so there was this case where 01:37:14.800 --> 01:37:17.997 this student wrote an essay where their parent sat and watched them write the 01:37:18.080 --> 01:37:21.357 essay and then they submitted it and this tool got the conclusion incorrect 01:37:21.440 --> 01:37:24.157 and then the student feels outraged because he got unfairly cheated, but the 01:37:24.240 --> 01:37:26.637 teacher is like, "Well, you're all using the tool." Then it turns out there's 01:37:26.720 --> 01:37:30.957 another tool that basically you feed in text and it actually um it sort of uh 01:37:31.040 --> 01:37:33.597 it's it's a it's called they call it a summarizer, but what it really is is 01:37:33.680 --> 01:37:36.957 it's a cheating mechanism to to basically um just shuffle the words 01:37:37.040 --> 01:37:40.557 around enough so that it sheds whatever characteristics were associated with AI. 01:37:40.640 --> 01:37:43.997 So there's like a an arms race going on in educational settings right now around 01:37:44.080 --> 01:37:47.357 this exact question. I I don't I don't think it's possible to do there are 01:37:47.440 --> 01:37:49.197 people working on the watermarking. I don't think it's possible to do the 01:37:49.280 --> 01:37:51.677 watermarking. And I think it's just kind of obvious why it's not possible to do 01:37:51.760 --> 01:37:55.117 that, which is you can just read the output for yourself. 01:37:55.200 --> 01:37:58.397 It's it's really good. How are you actually going to tell the difference 01:37:58.480 --> 01:38:00.797 between that and something that a real person wrote? 01:38:00.880 --> 01:38:03.917 >> And then by the way, you can also ask chat GPT to write in different styles, 01:38:04.000 --> 01:38:06.477 right? So you can tell it like, you know, write in the style of a 01:38:06.560 --> 01:38:09.517 15-year-old, right? you can tell it to write in the style of, you know, a 01:38:09.600 --> 01:38:12.397 non-native English speaker, right? Or if you're a non-native English speaker, you 01:38:12.480 --> 01:38:15.277 can tell it to write in the style of an English speaker, uh, native English 01:38:15.360 --> 01:38:20.077 speaker, right? And so, the tool itself will help you evade. So, I I I I don't 01:38:20.160 --> 01:38:22.477 think that I think there's a lot of people who are going to want to 01:38:22.560 --> 01:38:26.077 distinguish, right, quote, real versus fake. I I think those days are I think 01:38:26.160 --> 01:38:27.837 those days are over. >> Genie's out of the bottle. 01:38:27.920 --> 01:38:28.877 >> Genie's completely out of the bottle. 01:38:28.960 --> 01:38:31.917 And and by and by the way, I actually think this is good. This doesn't map to 01:38:32.000 --> 01:38:34.477 this doesn't map to my worldview of how we use this technology anyway, which 01:38:34.560 --> 01:38:38.797 which we can come back to. Um, so there's that. So, so, so there's that. 01:38:38.880 --> 01:38:41.277 So, and and then there's the problem therefore of like the so-called deep 01:38:41.360 --> 01:38:43.917 fake problem. So, then there's the problem of like deliberate basically 01:38:44.000 --> 01:38:47.197 manipulation. And that's like, you know, one of your one one of your many 01:38:47.280 --> 01:38:49.117 enemies, [laughter] one of your 01:38:49.200 --> 01:38:54.717 increasingly long list of enemies like mine. Um, who basically is like, "Wow, I 01:38:54.800 --> 01:38:55.917 know how I'm going to get him, right? 01:38:56.000 --> 01:38:58.877 I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna create I'm gonna I'm gonna use it to create 01:38:58.960 --> 01:39:01.197 something that looks like a Hebrewman transcript, and I'm gonna have him say 01:39:01.280 --> 01:39:02.557 all these bad things or a video." 01:39:02.640 --> 01:39:04.317 >> Or a video or a video. I mean, Joe Rogan 01:39:04.400 --> 01:39:08.877 and I were deep faked in a video um I don't want to flag people to it. I won't 01:39:08.960 --> 01:39:10.557 so I won't talk about what it was about, 01:39:10.640 --> 01:39:14.477 but um where it for all the world looked 01:39:14.560 --> 01:39:18.077 like a conversation that we were having and we never had that specific 01:39:18.160 --> 01:39:19.757 conversation. >> Yeah, that's right. So that's going to 01:39:19.840 --> 01:39:21.997 happen for sure. And so there there's so what there's going to need to be is 01:39:22.080 --> 01:39:26.077 there's need to be basically registries where basically you you like in your 01:39:26.160 --> 01:39:30.797 case you will you will um submit your legitimate uh content into a registry 01:39:30.880 --> 01:39:34.317 under your unique cryptographic key right and then basically there will be a 01:39:34.400 --> 01:39:36.957 way to check against that registry to see whether that was the real thing. And 01:39:37.040 --> 01:39:39.757 I think this needs to be done for for sure for public figures. It needs to be 01:39:39.840 --> 01:39:42.317 done for politicians. It needs to be done for you know music. 01:39:42.400 --> 01:39:45.597 >> What about taking what's already out there and being able to authenticate it 01:39:45.680 --> 01:39:50.157 or not? In the same way that um many times per week I get asked is this your 01:39:50.240 --> 01:39:54.477 account about some a direct message that somebody got on Instagram and I always 01:39:54.560 --> 01:39:58.957 tell them look I only have the one account this one verified account. 01:39:59.040 --> 01:40:03.277 Although now with the advent of pay-to-play verification makes it a 01:40:03.360 --> 01:40:07.037 little less potent as a you know security blanket for um knowing if it's 01:40:07.120 --> 01:40:11.517 not this account um you know then it's not me. But in any case, these accounts 01:40:11.600 --> 01:40:13.277 pop up all the time pretending to be me. 01:40:13.360 --> 01:40:18.477 And I'm I'm, you know, relatively low on the on the scale, not not um not low, 01:40:18.560 --> 01:40:22.397 but relatively low on the scale to say like a um you know, like a Beyonce or 01:40:22.480 --> 01:40:25.677 something like that who has, you know, hundreds of millions of followers. So, 01:40:25.760 --> 01:40:31.037 um, is there a system in mind where people could go in and and verify text? 01:40:31.120 --> 01:40:32.637 You know, click yes or no, this is me. 01:40:32.720 --> 01:40:36.557 This is not me. And even there, there's the opportunity for people to fudge to 01:40:36.640 --> 01:40:39.517 eliminate things about themselves that they don't want out there by saying no, 01:40:39.600 --> 01:40:42.397 that's not me. It wasn't I didn't actually say that or create that. 01:40:42.480 --> 01:40:43.837 >> Yeah. No, that's right. And so, yeah, so 01:40:43.920 --> 01:40:45.997 technologically, this is actually pretty straightforward. So, the way to 01:40:46.080 --> 01:40:48.477 implement this technologically is with public key, what's called public key 01:40:48.560 --> 01:40:51.357 cryptography, which is the basis for how, you know, cryptography information 01:40:51.440 --> 01:40:54.157 is secured in the world today. Okay. And and so basically what you would the 01:40:54.240 --> 01:40:56.797 implementation form of this would be you would like you would pick whatever is 01:40:56.880 --> 01:40:59.117 your most trusted channel and let's say let's say it's your YouTube channel as 01:40:59.200 --> 01:41:01.757 an example where just everybody just knows that it's you on your YouTube 01:41:01.840 --> 01:41:04.637 channel because you've been doing it for 10 years or whatever and it's just obvious 01:41:04.720 --> 01:41:07.917 >> and you would just publish like in the about me page on YouTube you would just 01:41:08.000 --> 01:41:11.357 publish your your your public cryptographic key that's unique to you 01:41:11.440 --> 01:41:14.557 >> right and then anytime anybody wants to check to see whether any piece of 01:41:14.640 --> 01:41:18.717 content is actually you they go to a registry in the cloud somewhere and they 01:41:18.800 --> 01:41:22.477 basically submit they basically say okay is this him and then they can basically 01:41:22.560 --> 01:41:26.477 you to see whether somebody with your public key you had actually certified 01:41:26.560 --> 01:41:28.637 that this was something that that you made. 01:41:28.720 --> 01:41:32.077 >> Um now who runs that registry is an interesting question. Um if that 01:41:32.160 --> 01:41:34.637 registry is run by the government we will call that the min M ministry of 01:41:34.720 --> 01:41:38.877 truth. I think that's probably a bad idea. Um if that registry is run by a 01:41:38.960 --> 01:41:41.917 company um we would you know call that basically the equivalent of like a 01:41:42.000 --> 01:41:43.597 credit bureau or something like that. 01:41:43.680 --> 01:41:46.477 Maybe that's how it happens. The problem with that is that company now becomes 01:41:46.560 --> 01:41:49.517 hacking target number one, right, of every bad person on earth, right? 01:41:49.600 --> 01:41:52.077 Because you can, you know, if anybody breaks into that company, you know, they 01:41:52.160 --> 01:41:53.597 can they can they can fake all kinds of things. 01:41:53.680 --> 01:41:55.837 >> Yeah. They own the truth, >> right? They own the truth, right? And 01:41:55.920 --> 01:41:58.317 and by the way, insider threat also their employees can monkey with it, 01:41:58.400 --> 01:42:01.117 right? So you have to really trust that company. Um the third way to do it is 01:42:01.200 --> 01:42:04.237 with a blockchain, right? And so this with the crypto blockchain technology, 01:42:04.320 --> 01:42:07.837 you could have a distributed system, basically distributed database uh in the 01:42:07.920 --> 01:42:11.277 cloud that is run through a blockchain and then it it it it implements this 01:42:11.360 --> 01:42:15.037 cryptography and the certification process. What about quantum internet? Um 01:42:15.120 --> 01:42:17.917 is that another way to encrypt these things? I know most of our listeners are 01:42:18.000 --> 01:42:20.877 probably not familiar with quantum internet, but um put simply, it's a way 01:42:20.960 --> 01:42:24.637 to um secure communications on the internet. Uh let's just leave it at 01:42:24.720 --> 01:42:27.677 that. Um it's sophisticated and we'll probably do a whole episode about this 01:42:27.760 --> 01:42:30.477 at some point, but maybe you have a succinct way of describing quantum 01:42:30.560 --> 01:42:35.357 internet, but um that would be better and if so, please please offer it up. 01:42:35.440 --> 01:42:40.077 But is quantum internet going to be one way to secure these kinds of um data and 01:42:40.160 --> 01:42:43.437 resources? maybe in in in the in the future, years in the future. We don't 01:42:43.520 --> 01:42:46.397 yet have working quantum computers in practice. So, it's not it's not 01:42:46.480 --> 01:42:49.037 currently something you could do, but maybe maybe in a decade or two. 01:42:49.120 --> 01:42:51.997 >> Um, tell me, I'm going to take a stab at defining quantum internet in one 01:42:52.080 --> 01:42:54.877 sentence. It's a way in which if anyone were to try and peer in on a 01:42:54.960 --> 01:42:56.957 conversation on the internet essentially 01:42:57.040 --> 01:42:59.037 um would be futile because of the way 01:42:59.120 --> 01:43:03.037 that um uh quantum internet uh changes 01:43:03.120 --> 01:43:06.557 the way that the communication is happening so fast and so many times in 01:43:06.640 --> 01:43:09.597 any one conversation. It's essentially changing the translation or the 01:43:09.680 --> 01:43:12.797 language. so fast that there's just no way to keep up with it. Is that more or 01:43:12.880 --> 01:43:16.637 less accurate? >> Yeah, conceivably. Yeah. Not. Yeah. Not yet, but yeah, someday. 01:43:16.720 --> 01:43:20.797 >> So, going back to AI, you know, most people who hear about AI are afraid of 01:43:20.880 --> 01:43:25.357 AI. >> Um, um, well, I I think most people who aren't informed, 01:43:25.440 --> 01:43:27.837 >> this goes back to our elites versus masses thing. 01:43:27.920 --> 01:43:29.757 >> Oh, interesting. Well, I heard you say 01:43:29.840 --> 01:43:33.997 that, um, you know, um, and this is from 01:43:34.080 --> 01:43:37.437 a really wonderful tweet thread that we will link in the show note captions that 01:43:37.520 --> 01:43:42.477 that you put out um, not long ago. and that I've read now several times um and 01:43:42.560 --> 01:43:45.917 that everyone really should take the time to read it. Probably takes about um 01:43:46.000 --> 01:43:47.677 20 minutes to read it carefully and to 01:43:47.760 --> 01:43:49.437 think about each piece and it's I highly 01:43:49.520 --> 01:43:53.437 recommend it. Um but you said um and I'm 01:43:53.520 --> 01:43:57.517 quoting here, let's address uh the fifth 01:43:57.600 --> 01:44:01.597 the one thing I actually agree with which is AI will make it easier for bad 01:44:01.680 --> 01:44:03.917 people to do bad things. >> Yeah. 01:44:04.000 --> 01:44:08.157 >> Yeah. Well, so so yes. So um well so so so yeah. So, so first of all, there is a 01:44:08.240 --> 01:44:10.957 general freakout happening around AI. I think it's primarily, it's one of these, 01:44:11.040 --> 01:44:13.437 again, it's an elite driven freakout. I don't think the man in the street knows 01:44:13.520 --> 01:44:16.237 knows cares or feels one way or the other. I think it's just not a relevant 01:44:16.320 --> 01:44:18.957 concept, and it's probably just sounds like science fiction. Um, so there 01:44:19.040 --> 01:44:21.517 there's there's I think there's there's an elite driven freakout that's 01:44:21.600 --> 01:44:25.277 happening right now. Um, I think that elite driven freakout has many aspects 01:44:25.360 --> 01:44:29.117 to it that I think are incorrect, which is not surprising. I would think that, 01:44:29.200 --> 01:44:31.517 given that I think the elites are incorrect about a lot of things, but I 01:44:31.600 --> 01:44:34.557 think they're very wrong about a number of things they're saying about AI. Uh 01:44:34.640 --> 01:44:37.437 but that said, look, it's a it's a this is a very powerful new technology, 01:44:37.520 --> 01:44:41.117 right? This is like a new general purpose like thinking technology, right? 01:44:41.200 --> 01:44:44.157 So like what if machines could think, right? And what if you could use 01:44:44.240 --> 01:44:47.437 machines that think and what if you could have them think for you? There's 01:44:47.520 --> 01:44:51.277 obviously a lot of good that could come from that. Um but also people, you know, 01:44:51.360 --> 01:44:54.877 criminals could use them to plan better, you know, crimes. Um you know, 01:44:54.960 --> 01:44:57.677 terrorists could use them to plan better terror attacks and so forth. And so 01:44:57.760 --> 01:45:01.837 these are going to be tools that bad people can use to do bad things for sure. 01:45:01.920 --> 01:45:03.597 Um I can think of some ways that AI 01:45:03.680 --> 01:45:05.517 could be leveraged to do fantastic 01:45:05.600 --> 01:45:10.317 things like um in the realm of medicine 01:45:10.400 --> 01:45:14.717 um an AI pathologist perhaps can scan 01:45:14.800 --> 01:45:18.157 10,000 slides of hisytologology and find 01:45:18.240 --> 01:45:21.517 the one microtumor cellular aberration 01:45:21.600 --> 01:45:23.837 that would turn into a full-blown tumor. 01:45:23.920 --> 01:45:27.197 Whereas the um even mildly fatigued or 01:45:27.280 --> 01:45:32.157 well-rested human pathologists, as great as they come, might miss that. 01:45:32.240 --> 01:45:35.117 >> Right. >> And perhaps the best solution is for 01:45:35.200 --> 01:45:38.637 both of them to do it. And then for the human to verify what the AI has found 01:45:38.720 --> 01:45:40.157 and vice versa, >> right? That's right. 01:45:40.240 --> 01:45:43.437 >> Right. And that's just one example. I mean, I can come up with thousands of 01:45:43.520 --> 01:45:46.077 examples where this would be wonderful. 01:45:46.160 --> 01:45:49.757 Um >> I give another one by medicine. Um so you're talking about some analytic 01:45:49.840 --> 01:45:52.077 result which is good and important. And the other is like the machines are going 01:45:52.160 --> 01:45:54.637 to be much better bedside manner. 01:45:54.720 --> 01:45:57.197 >> They're going to be much better at dealing with the patient. And we already 01:45:57.280 --> 01:45:59.357 know there's already been a study there's already been a study on this. So 01:45:59.440 --> 01:46:04.077 there was already a study done on this um uh where um there was a a study team 01:46:04.160 --> 01:46:06.877 that scraped thousands of medical questions off of an internet forum and 01:46:06.960 --> 01:46:09.997 then they had real doctors answer the questions and then they had basically 01:46:10.080 --> 01:46:13.837 GPT4 answer the questions and then they had another panel of doctors score the 01:46:13.920 --> 01:46:17.357 responses. Right? So there were no patients experimented on here. This was 01:46:17.440 --> 01:46:20.397 a test contained within the within the medical world. 01:46:20.480 --> 01:46:23.677 And then the the the the panel of the judges the panel of doctors who are the 01:46:23.760 --> 01:46:25.277 judges scored the answers on both 01:46:25.360 --> 01:46:27.277 factual accuracy um and on bedside 01:46:27.360 --> 01:46:30.797 manner um on empathy. Um and the GPT4 01:46:30.880 --> 01:46:36.637 was was equal or better on most of the factual questions analytically already 01:46:36.720 --> 01:46:40.237 um and it's not even a specifically trained medical AI um but it was 01:46:40.320 --> 01:46:42.797 overwhelmingly better um on empathy. 01:46:42.880 --> 01:46:45.597 >> Amazing. >> Right. Um and so and and you know I 01:46:45.680 --> 01:46:48.317 don't think yeah I don't do you do you treat patient do you treat patients 01:46:48.400 --> 01:46:49.917 directly in your work? You don't. Yeah. 01:46:50.000 --> 01:46:52.477 You don't we do we run clinical trials, right? 01:46:52.560 --> 01:46:55.117 >> Um but I don't I don't do any direct clinical. 01:46:55.200 --> 01:46:58.877 >> So I I know I have no direct experience of this, but from the surgeons I from 01:46:58.960 --> 01:47:01.997 like if you talk to surgeons or you talk to people who train surgeons, what 01:47:02.080 --> 01:47:04.717 they'll tell you is like surgeons need to have an emotional remove from their 01:47:04.800 --> 01:47:07.917 patients in order to do a good job with the surgery. The side effect of that and 01:47:08.000 --> 01:47:10.397 by the way, look, it's a hell of a job to have to go in and tell somebody that 01:47:10.480 --> 01:47:12.637 they're going to die, right? Or that they have so they're never going to 01:47:12.720 --> 01:47:15.277 recover, they're never going to walk again or whatever it is. And so there's 01:47:15.360 --> 01:47:18.157 a there's sort of something inherent in that job where they need to keep an 01:47:18.240 --> 01:47:21.597 emotional reserve from the patient, right, to be able to do the job and it's 01:47:21.680 --> 01:47:23.917 expected of them as professionals. 01:47:24.000 --> 01:47:27.917 The machine has no such limitation. Like the machine can be as sympathetic as you 01:47:28.000 --> 01:47:31.197 want it to be for as long as you want it to be. It can be infinitely sympathetic. 01:47:31.280 --> 01:47:33.677 It's happy to talk to you at 4 in the morning. It's happy to sympathize with 01:47:33.760 --> 01:47:37.837 you. It's and by the way, it's not just sympathizing you in in the way that oh, 01:47:37.920 --> 01:47:40.077 it's just lying, you know, it's just making up words to lie to you to make 01:47:40.160 --> 01:47:43.437 you feel good. It can also sympathize with you in terms of helping you through 01:47:43.520 --> 01:47:46.477 all the things that you can actually do to improve your situation, right? And 01:47:46.560 --> 01:47:50.877 so, you know, boy, like if you be, you know, can you keep a patient actually on 01:47:50.960 --> 01:47:52.317 track with a physical therapy program? 01:47:52.400 --> 01:47:55.117 Can you keep a patient on track with a nutritional program? Can you keep a 01:47:55.200 --> 01:47:56.957 patient off of drugs or alcohol, right? 01:47:57.040 --> 01:48:00.397 And if they have a machine medical companion that's with them all the time 01:48:00.480 --> 01:48:03.597 that they're talking to all the time that's infinitely patient, infinitely 01:48:03.680 --> 01:48:06.317 wise, right? Infinitely loving, right? 01:48:06.400 --> 01:48:08.477 and and it's just going to be there all the time and it's going to be 01:48:08.560 --> 01:48:10.477 encouraging and it's going to be saying, you know, you did such a great job 01:48:10.560 --> 01:48:12.717 yesterday. I know you can do this again today. 01:48:12.800 --> 01:48:15.757 >> Cognitive behavioral therapy is an obvious fit here. These things are going 01:48:15.840 --> 01:48:19.357 to be great at CBT and that's that's already starting. You can already use 01:48:19.440 --> 01:48:23.277 Chat GPT as a as a CBT therapist if you want. It's actually quite good at it. 01:48:23.360 --> 01:48:26.557 And so so there's there's a universe here that's it goes to what you said. 01:48:26.640 --> 01:48:29.437 There's a universe here that's opening up which is what what I believe is it's 01:48:29.520 --> 01:48:32.797 it's partnership between man and machine, right? It's it's a symbiotic 01:48:32.880 --> 01:48:36.477 relationship, not an adversarial relationship. And so that exactly the 01:48:36.560 --> 01:48:39.357 doctor is going to pair with the AI to do all the things that you described, 01:48:39.440 --> 01:48:42.797 but the patient is also going to pair with the AI and and I think it's I think 01:48:42.880 --> 01:48:46.477 I think this this partnership that's going to emerge is going to lead among 01:48:46.560 --> 01:48:48.957 other things to actually much better health outcomes. I 01:48:49.040 --> 01:48:53.517 >> mean, I've relied for so much of my life on excellent mentors, 01:48:53.600 --> 01:48:56.797 >> right? >> Um from a very young age and still now 01:48:56.880 --> 01:48:59.437 >> um in order to make best decisions 01:48:59.520 --> 01:49:02.477 possible with the information I had. um 01:49:02.560 --> 01:49:06.877 and rarely were they available at four in the morning sometimes um but not on a 01:49:06.960 --> 01:49:08.717 frequent basis and they fatigue like 01:49:08.800 --> 01:49:11.437 anybody else and they have their own 01:49:11.520 --> 01:49:13.997 stuff like anybody else baggage events 01:49:14.080 --> 01:49:19.357 in their life etc. Um what you're describing is a sort of AI coach or 01:49:19.440 --> 01:49:20.877 therapist of sorts 01:49:20.960 --> 01:49:22.957 >> that hopefully would learn to identify 01:49:23.040 --> 01:49:28.477 our best self and encourage us to be our best self. And um when I say best self, 01:49:28.560 --> 01:49:31.677 I don't mean that in any kind of pop psychology way. I mean, I could imagine 01:49:31.760 --> 01:49:35.597 AI very easily knowing, you know, how well I slept the night before and what 01:49:35.680 --> 01:49:39.597 types of good or bad decisions I tend to make at 2:00 in the afternoon, uh, when 01:49:39.680 --> 01:49:44.237 I've only had 5 hours of sleep or maybe just less REM sleep the night before. It 01:49:44.320 --> 01:49:46.877 might encourage me to take a little more time to think about something. 01:49:46.960 --> 01:49:49.037 >> Yeah. >> Might give me a little, uh, tap on the 01:49:49.120 --> 01:49:53.117 wrist through a device that no one else would detect to um, you know, refrain 01:49:53.200 --> 01:49:55.597 from something. You know, >> it's never going to judge you. 01:49:55.680 --> 01:49:57.997 >> It's never going to be resentful. It's never going to be upset that you didn't 01:49:58.080 --> 01:50:01.597 listen to it, [laughter] >> right? It's never going to go on vacation. 01:50:01.680 --> 01:50:04.157 >> It's going to be there for you. Like I think this is the this is the way people 01:50:04.240 --> 01:50:06.237 are going to live. It's going to start with kids and then over time it's going 01:50:06.320 --> 01:50:08.637 to be adults. I think the way people are going to live is they're going to have a 01:50:08.720 --> 01:50:10.957 Exactly. friend, therapist, companion, 01:50:11.040 --> 01:50:15.917 mentor, coach, teacher, right, assistant. And that that that that or or 01:50:16.000 --> 01:50:18.317 by the way, maybe multiple of those. It may be that we're actually talking about 01:50:18.400 --> 01:50:21.037 six like different personas interacting, which is a whole another possibility, 01:50:21.120 --> 01:50:22.877 but they're going to have a committee. 01:50:22.960 --> 01:50:23.997 Yeah. Yeah. Committee. Yeah. Yeah. 01:50:24.080 --> 01:50:25.357 Exactly. Actually different personas. 01:50:25.440 --> 01:50:27.437 And maybe by the way, when there are difficult decisions to be made in your 01:50:27.520 --> 01:50:30.957 life, maybe what you want to hear is the argument among the different personas. 01:50:31.040 --> 01:50:34.557 Um, and so you're just going to get you're just going to grow up. You're 01:50:34.640 --> 01:50:37.357 just going to have this in your life and you're going to always be able to talk 01:50:37.440 --> 01:50:40.317 to it and always be able to learn from it and always be able to help it make, 01:50:40.400 --> 01:50:43.997 you know, and like it's just it's going to it's it's going to be a symbiotic 01:50:44.080 --> 01:50:45.997 relationship. It's going to I think it's be much better way to live. I think 01:50:46.080 --> 01:50:47.517 people are going to get a lot out of it. 01:50:47.600 --> 01:50:49.677 >> What modalities will it include? So, I 01:50:49.760 --> 01:50:52.717 can imagine um my phone has this um 01:50:52.800 --> 01:50:55.277 engine in it uh this AI companion and 01:50:55.360 --> 01:50:57.757 I'm listening in headphones as I walk 01:50:57.840 --> 01:51:02.477 into work and it's giving me some um not just encouragement, some warnings, some 01:51:02.560 --> 01:51:06.237 um thoughts that uh things that I might ask Mark Andre today that I might not 01:51:06.320 --> 01:51:10.397 have thought of. Uh and so on. Um I could also imagine it having a more 01:51:10.480 --> 01:51:15.277 human form. I could imagine it being uh tactile, having some haptic, so tapping 01:51:15.360 --> 01:51:18.397 to remind me so that it's not going to enter our conversation in a way that 01:51:18.480 --> 01:51:22.957 that it interferes or distracts you, but I would be aware. Oh, right. Um, you 01:51:23.040 --> 01:51:26.877 know, things of that sort. I mean, how many different modalities are we going 01:51:26.960 --> 01:51:31.997 to allow these AI coaches to approach us with? And is anyone actually thinking 01:51:32.080 --> 01:51:33.837 about the hardware piece right now? 01:51:33.920 --> 01:51:36.477 Because I'm hearing a lot about the software piece. Uh, what does the 01:51:36.560 --> 01:51:39.117 hardware piece look like? >> Yeah. So, the entrep this is where 01:51:39.200 --> 01:51:41.597 Silicon Valley is going to kick in. So the entrepreneurial community is going 01:51:41.680 --> 01:51:44.637 to try all of those, right? And by the way, the big companies and and and 01:51:44.720 --> 01:51:47.117 startups are going to try all those. And so there's obviously there's big 01:51:47.200 --> 01:51:49.757 companies that are working, you know, the big companies that have talked about 01:51:49.840 --> 01:51:53.277 a variety of these including, you know, heads-up displays, AR, VR, you know, 01:51:53.360 --> 01:51:56.397 kinds of things. Um, you know, there's lots of people doing voice, you know, 01:51:56.480 --> 01:52:00.237 the voice thing is voice is a real possibility. It may just be an earpiece. 01:52:00.320 --> 01:52:04.477 Um, there's a new startup that just unveiled a new thing, um, where it's 01:52:04.560 --> 01:52:07.597 actually they actually project. So you'll have like a pendant you wear on 01:52:07.680 --> 01:52:09.997 like a necklace and it actually like projects like literally it will like 01:52:10.080 --> 01:52:13.037 project images like on your hand or like on the table or on the wall in front of 01:52:13.120 --> 01:52:16.477 you. So like maybe that's how it shows up. Um yeah, there are people working on 01:52:16.560 --> 01:52:20.477 so-called haptic or touch based uh kinds of things. There are people working on 01:52:20.560 --> 01:52:24.557 actually picking up uh nerve signals like out of your arm. Um right to be 01:52:24.640 --> 01:52:28.717 able to um uh to be able to uh there's um people there's you know there's some 01:52:28.800 --> 01:52:32.557 science for being able to do basically like subocalization. Um so maybe you 01:52:32.640 --> 01:52:37.517 could pick up um you could pick up that way uh bone conduction you know um so 01:52:37.600 --> 01:52:40.717 yeah these are all going to be tried so so so that's one question is the 01:52:40.800 --> 01:52:43.357 physical form of it and then and then the other question is the software 01:52:43.440 --> 01:52:46.157 version of it which is like okay what's the level of abstraction that you want 01:52:46.240 --> 01:52:49.997 to deal with these things in like do you like right now it's like a question 01:52:50.080 --> 01:52:53.117 answer paradigm so called chatbot like ask question get an answer ask a 01:52:53.200 --> 01:52:56.237 question get an answer like well you want that to go for sure to more of a 01:52:56.320 --> 01:52:59.277 fluid conversation you want to build up more knowledge of who you are and you 01:52:59.360 --> 01:53:01.757 don't want to have to explain yourself the second time and so forth And then 01:53:01.840 --> 01:53:04.477 you want to be able to tell it things like, well, remind me this, that, or you 01:53:04.560 --> 01:53:06.477 know, be sure and tell me when x. 01:53:06.560 --> 01:53:10.077 >> Um, but then maybe over time, more and more, you want it actually deciding when 01:53:10.160 --> 01:53:12.957 it's going to talk to you, right? Um, and when it thinks it has something to 01:53:13.040 --> 01:53:15.277 say, it says it and otherwise it stay silent. 01:53:15.360 --> 01:53:20.237 >> And and normally, at least in my head, unless I make a concerted effort to do 01:53:20.320 --> 01:53:21.837 otherwise, I don't think in complete 01:53:21.920 --> 01:53:26.077 sentences. Um, so presumably this these 01:53:26.160 --> 01:53:29.917 AI um these machines could learn my 01:53:30.000 --> 01:53:32.717 style of fragmented internal dialogue 01:53:32.800 --> 01:53:34.397 and I'll maybe I have an earpiece and 01:53:34.480 --> 01:53:37.277 I'm walking in and and I start hearing 01:53:37.360 --> 01:53:39.997 something but at some you know advice 01:53:40.080 --> 01:53:42.717 etc. Um encouragement discouragement um 01:53:42.800 --> 01:53:45.117 but at some point 01:53:45.200 --> 01:53:49.757 those sounds that I hear in an earphone are very different than seeing something 01:53:49.840 --> 01:53:53.517 or hearing something in the room. We know this based on the neuroscience of 01:53:53.600 --> 01:53:56.557 musical perception and language perception. Hearing something in your 01:53:56.640 --> 01:54:00.397 head is very different. And I could imagine at some point that the AI will 01:54:00.480 --> 01:54:03.437 cross a precipice where if it has inline 01:54:03.520 --> 01:54:07.597 wiring to actually control neural activity in specific brain areas and I 01:54:07.680 --> 01:54:10.477 don't mean very precisely even just stimulating a little more prefrontal 01:54:10.560 --> 01:54:12.877 cortical activity for instance through the earpiece. You know a little 01:54:12.960 --> 01:54:16.717 ultrasound wave now can stimulate prefrontal cortex in a non-invasive way 01:54:16.800 --> 01:54:20.237 that's being used clinically and experimentally. 01:54:20.320 --> 01:54:22.877 um that the AI could decide that I need 01:54:22.960 --> 01:54:28.237 to be a little bit more um contextaware, right? Um this is something that uh is 01:54:28.320 --> 01:54:31.437 very beneficial for those listening that are trying to figure out how to navigate 01:54:31.520 --> 01:54:34.237 through life. It's like you know know the context you're in and know the 01:54:34.320 --> 01:54:37.757 catalog of behaviors and words that are appropriate for that situation and not 01:54:37.840 --> 01:54:40.877 others. And um you know uh this would go 01:54:40.960 --> 01:54:44.877 along with agreeableness perhaps, but strategic agreeableness, right? Context 01:54:44.960 --> 01:54:48.317 is important. Um there's nothing diabolical about that. context is 01:54:48.400 --> 01:54:51.837 important, but I could imagine the AI recognizing, ah, we're entering a 01:54:51.920 --> 01:54:55.677 particular environment. I'm now actually going to ramp up activity in prefrontal 01:54:55.760 --> 01:55:00.237 cortex a little bit in a certain way that allows you to be more situationally 01:55:00.320 --> 01:55:02.477 aware of yourself and others, which is 01:55:02.560 --> 01:55:06.317 great unless I can't necessarily short 01:55:06.400 --> 01:55:09.437 circuit that influence because, you 01:55:09.520 --> 01:55:13.357 know, at some point the AI is actually then controlling my brain activity and 01:55:13.440 --> 01:55:17.037 my decision-m and my speech, right? I think that's what people fear is that 01:55:17.120 --> 01:55:21.677 once we cross that precipice that we are giving up control to the artificial 01:55:21.760 --> 01:55:23.197 versions of our human intelligence. 01:55:23.280 --> 01:55:26.157 >> Yeah. And look, I think we have to decide and you we we collectively and we 01:55:26.240 --> 01:55:28.877 as individuals I think have to decide exactly how to do that. And and this is 01:55:28.960 --> 01:55:30.237 the big thing that I believe about AI. 01:55:30.320 --> 01:55:32.797 There's just a much more I would say practical view of the world than a lot 01:55:32.880 --> 01:55:36.557 of the panic that you hear is just like these are machines. They're able to do 01:55:36.640 --> 01:55:38.797 things that increasingly are like the things that people can do in some 01:55:38.880 --> 01:55:40.077 circumstances. But these are machines. 01:55:40.160 --> 01:55:42.717 We build the machines. We decide how to use the machines. 01:55:42.800 --> 01:55:44.717 >> When we want the machines turned on, they're turned on. We want them turned 01:55:44.800 --> 01:55:47.757 off. they're turned off. Um and so yeah, so I I think that's absolutely the kind 01:55:47.840 --> 01:55:50.317 of thing that the individual person should always be in charge of. 01:55:50.400 --> 01:55:53.837 >> I mean, everyone was and I have to imagine some people are still afraid of 01:55:53.920 --> 01:55:57.197 crisper of gene editing. >> Um but gene editing stands to 01:55:57.280 --> 01:56:01.517 revolutionize our treatment of all sorts of diseases. Um you know, inserting and 01:56:01.600 --> 01:56:05.677 deleting particular genes in adulthood, right? Not having to um recombine in the 01:56:05.760 --> 01:56:10.557 womb a new a new organism is an immensely powerful tool. Um and yet the 01:56:10.640 --> 01:56:15.437 Chinese scientist who did crisper on humans, this has been done actually did 01:56:15.520 --> 01:56:19.677 his posttock at Stanford with Steve Quake then went to China did crisper on 01:56:19.760 --> 01:56:21.837 babies mutated um something I believe it 01:56:21.920 --> 01:56:24.797 was the HIV one of the HIV receptors I'm 01:56:24.880 --> 01:56:28.957 told it was with the intention of augmenting human memory. It had very 01:56:29.040 --> 01:56:33.837 little to do in fact with um limiting susceptibility to HIV per se to do with 01:56:33.920 --> 01:56:35.117 the way that that receptor is involved 01:56:35.200 --> 01:56:39.917 in human memory. um the world demonized 01:56:40.000 --> 01:56:42.557 that person. We actually don't know what happened to them. Whether or not they 01:56:42.640 --> 01:56:46.477 have a laboratory now or they're sitting in jail, it's unclear, but in China and 01:56:46.560 --> 01:56:48.957 elsewhere, people are doing crisper on 01:56:49.040 --> 01:56:51.837 humans. We know this. Um it's not legal 01:56:51.920 --> 01:56:54.877 in the US and um other countries, but 01:56:54.960 --> 01:56:59.437 it's happening. Um, do you think it's a mistake for us to 01:56:59.520 --> 01:57:03.517 fear these technologies so much that we back away from them and end up 10, 20 01:57:03.600 --> 01:57:08.237 years behind other countries that could use it for both benevolent or um 01:57:08.320 --> 01:57:10.797 malevolent reasons? [clears throat] >> Yeah. So there's always and you know 01:57:10.880 --> 01:57:13.917 look the details matter. So it it's technology by technology, but I would 01:57:14.000 --> 01:57:16.397 say there's there's two things. There's you always have to think in these 01:57:16.480 --> 01:57:19.117 questions I think in terms of counterfactuals and opportunity cost, 01:57:19.200 --> 01:57:22.477 right? And so so [laughter] crisper is an interesting one. Crisper, 01:57:22.560 --> 01:57:27.677 you manipulate the human genome. Nature manipulates the human genome [laughter] 01:57:27.760 --> 01:57:30.317 >> like in all kinds of ways. >> Yeah. When you pick a spouse and you 01:57:30.400 --> 01:57:33.197 have a child with that spouse, you're doing genetic recombination. 01:57:33.280 --> 01:57:36.717 >> You are really you are quite possibly you know if you're Genghaskhan you know 01:57:36.800 --> 01:57:37.997 you're determining the future of you 01:57:38.080 --> 01:57:41.037 know humanity right by those like like 01:57:41.120 --> 01:57:46.717 yeah nature I mean look mutations like so this is the old this is the old 01:57:46.800 --> 01:57:49.757 question of like basically you know this is all state of nature state of grace 01:57:49.840 --> 01:57:52.717 like you know basically is nature good and then therefore artificial things are 01:57:52.800 --> 01:57:55.757 bad. Um, you know, which is kind of shock. A lot of people have like ethical 01:57:55.840 --> 01:57:59.757 views like that. Um, uh, I'm always of the view that like nature's a [__] and 01:57:59.840 --> 01:58:04.317 wants us dead. Like nature's out to get us, man. Like nature wants to kill us, 01:58:04.400 --> 01:58:07.037 right? Um, like nature wants to like evolve all kinds of like horrible 01:58:07.120 --> 01:58:08.637 viruses. Nature wants to do plagues. 01:58:08.720 --> 01:58:11.437 Nature wants to like do, you know, weather, you know, like nature nature 01:58:11.520 --> 01:58:14.317 wants to do all kinds of stuff. I mean, look, the original nature religion was 01:58:14.400 --> 01:58:17.197 the original religion, right? Like that was the original thing people worshiped. 01:58:17.280 --> 01:58:19.837 And the reason was because nature was the thing that was out to get you, 01:58:19.920 --> 01:58:23.517 right? um before you had scientific and technological methods to be able to to 01:58:23.600 --> 01:58:27.997 be able to deal with it. So, so, so the idea of not doing these things to me is 01:58:28.080 --> 01:58:30.477 just saying, "Oh, we're just going to turn over the future of everything to 01:58:30.560 --> 01:58:33.277 nature." And I don't think that that there's no reason to believe that that 01:58:33.360 --> 01:58:37.037 leads in a particularly good direction or bad, you know, that that that's not a 01:58:37.120 --> 01:58:40.557 value neutral decision. Um and then the related thing that comes from that is 01:58:40.640 --> 01:58:43.757 this always this question around what's called the precautionary principle. Um 01:58:43.840 --> 01:58:46.477 which shows up in all these conversations on things like Crisper. um 01:58:46.560 --> 01:58:49.757 which basically is this it's this principle that basically says the 01:58:49.840 --> 01:58:52.717 inventors of a new technology should be required to prove that it will not have 01:58:52.800 --> 01:58:57.117 negative effects before they roll it out. Um this of course is a very new 01:58:57.200 --> 01:59:00.717 idea. This is actually a new idea in the 1970s. Um it's actually invented by the 01:59:00.800 --> 01:59:04.477 German Greens the 1970s. Um before that people didn't think in those terms. 01:59:04.560 --> 01:59:08.317 People just invented things uh and rolled them out. And we got all of 01:59:08.400 --> 01:59:12.477 modern civilization by people inventing things and and rolling them out. Um the 01:59:12.560 --> 01:59:15.117 German Greens came up with the precautionary principle for one specific 01:59:15.200 --> 01:59:17.677 purpose. I'll bet you can guess what it is. 01:59:17.760 --> 01:59:20.637 >> Uh, >> it was to prevent >> famine. 01:59:20.720 --> 01:59:22.797 >> Nuclear power. >> Oh, [snorts] it was to shut down 01:59:22.880 --> 01:59:24.797 attempts to do civilian nuclear power. 01:59:24.880 --> 01:59:28.637 Um, and if you fast forward 50 years later, you're like, "Wow, that was a big 01:59:28.720 --> 01:59:31.757 mistake, right?" Um, so what with what what they said at the time was you have 01:59:31.840 --> 01:59:33.917 to prove that nuclear reactors are not going to melt down 01:59:34.000 --> 01:59:36.397 >> and cause all kinds of problems. And of course, as an engineer, can you prove 01:59:36.480 --> 01:59:39.597 that that will never happen? Like you can't like you can't rule out like 01:59:39.680 --> 01:59:41.197 things that might happen in the future. 01:59:41.280 --> 01:59:45.917 Um, and so that that philosophy was used to stop nuclear power. By the way, not 01:59:46.000 --> 01:59:49.437 just in Europe, but also in the US and around much of the rest of the world. If 01:59:49.520 --> 01:59:52.077 you're somebody who's concerned about carbon emissions, of course, this is the 01:59:52.160 --> 01:59:55.357 worst thing that happened in the last 50 years in terms of energy. We we actually 01:59:55.440 --> 01:59:58.317 have the silver bullet answer to unlimited energy with zero carbon 01:59:58.400 --> 02:00:02.237 emissions, nuclear power. We we choose not to do it. Not only do we choose not 02:00:02.320 --> 02:00:05.677 to do it, we're actually shutting down the plants that we have now, right? In 02:00:05.760 --> 02:00:09.197 California, we just shut down, you know, the big plant. Germany just shut down 02:00:09.280 --> 02:00:12.317 their plants. Germanyy's in the middle of an energy war with Russia, right, 02:00:12.400 --> 02:00:14.957 that we are informed as existential for the future of Europe. 02:00:15.040 --> 02:00:19.597 >> But unless the risk of nuclear um power plant uh meltdown has increased, and I 02:00:19.680 --> 02:00:21.117 have to imagine it's gone the other way. 02:00:21.200 --> 02:00:24.237 Yeah. >> Um what is the rationale behind shutting 02:00:24.320 --> 02:00:27.197 down these plants and not expanding >> because nuclear is bad, right? Nuclear 02:00:27.280 --> 02:00:29.677 is icky. Nuclear is nuclear. Nuclear has been tagged. 02:00:29.760 --> 02:00:31.677 >> It just sounds bad. Nuclear. 02:00:31.760 --> 02:00:33.277 >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go nuclear. 02:00:33.360 --> 02:00:34.397 >> Nuclear. Well, so what what happened? 02:00:34.480 --> 02:00:37.197 >> We didn't shut down postal offices and you hear go postal. So what what 02:00:37.280 --> 02:00:40.957 happened was so so nuclear technology arrived on planet earth as a weapon, 02:00:41.040 --> 02:00:43.917 right? So it arrived in the form of the first thing they did was in the middle 02:00:44.000 --> 02:00:46.397 of World War II. The first thing they did was the atomic bomb they dropped on 02:00:46.480 --> 02:00:49.037 Japan and then and then there were all the debates that followed around nuclear 02:00:49.120 --> 02:00:51.997 weapons and disarmament and there's a whole conversation to be had by the way 02:00:52.080 --> 02:00:55.437 about that because there's different views you could have on that and then it 02:00:55.520 --> 02:00:57.997 was in the like 50s and 60s where they started to roll out civilian nuclear 02:00:58.080 --> 02:01:00.397 power and then there were there were me there were accidents there was like you 02:01:00.480 --> 02:01:03.597 know three mile island melted down and you know and then Chernobyl you know 02:01:03.680 --> 02:01:06.637 melted down in the Soviet Union and then even recently you know Fukushima melted 02:01:06.720 --> 02:01:09.677 down um and so you know there have been meltdowns and so I think it was a 02:01:09.760 --> 02:01:14.077 combination of it's a weapon um it is sort of icky 02:01:14.160 --> 02:01:15.677 scientists sometimes say the ick factor. 02:01:15.760 --> 02:01:19.677 Um right. Um it sort of it's you know it's radioactive. It glows green you 02:01:19.760 --> 02:01:23.837 know and by the way it becomes you know becomes like a mythical fictional thing 02:01:23.920 --> 02:01:26.717 and so you have all these movies of like horrible you know super villains powered 02:01:26.800 --> 02:01:28.717 by like nuclear energy and all this all this stuff. 02:01:28.800 --> 02:01:32.237 >> Well the intro to the Simpsons right is the nuclear power plant and the 02:01:32.320 --> 02:01:36.637 three-eyed fish and the you know all all the negative implications of this 02:01:36.720 --> 02:01:38.957 nuclear power plant run by um at least 02:01:39.040 --> 02:01:42.877 on the Simpsons idiots. Um and that is 02:01:42.960 --> 02:01:48.157 the you know uh the dystopia where people are unaware of just how bad it is 02:01:48.240 --> 02:01:51.597 >> and who owns the nuclear power plant right this like evil you know this evil 02:01:51.680 --> 02:01:54.717 capitalist right like so it's like connected to like you know capitalism 02:01:54.800 --> 02:01:59.037 right um and >> so we're blaming Matt groaning for the demise of a particular 02:01:59.120 --> 02:02:01.117 >> he certainly didn't help >> no he didn't 02:02:01.200 --> 02:02:03.437 >> right um but it's literally this amazing 02:02:03.520 --> 02:02:05.757 thing where if you're just like thinking if you're just thinking like rationally 02:02:05.840 --> 02:02:08.717 scientifically you're like okay we want to get rid of carbon this is the obvious 02:02:08.800 --> 02:02:13.757 way to do it so so okay fun Richard Nixon um uh did two two things 02:02:13.840 --> 02:02:16.637 that really mattered on this. So one is he defined in 1971 something called 02:02:16.720 --> 02:02:19.917 project independence uh which was to create a thousand new state-of-the-art 02:02:20.000 --> 02:02:23.597 nuclear plants, civilian nuclear plants in the US by 1980 and to get the US 02:02:23.680 --> 02:02:27.357 completely off of oil uh and cut the entire US energy grid over to nuclear 02:02:27.440 --> 02:02:30.557 power electricity cut over to electric cars the whole thing like detach from 02:02:30.640 --> 02:02:35.037 carbon. Um you'll notice that didn't happen. Um why did that not happen? 02:02:35.120 --> 02:02:38.557 Because he also created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission which then 02:02:38.640 --> 02:02:39.677 prevented that from happening, right? 02:02:39.760 --> 02:02:42.157 Right. And the Nuclear Regulatory Commission did not authorize a new 02:02:42.240 --> 02:02:43.917 nuclear plant in the US for 40 years. 02:02:44.000 --> 02:02:46.637 >> Why would he hamstring himself like that? 02:02:46.720 --> 02:02:49.037 >> You know, he got distracted by [laughter] 02:02:49.120 --> 02:02:52.157 >> Yeah. He had by by Watergate in Vietnam. 02:02:52.240 --> 02:02:55.277 Um >> Yeah. I think Ellberg just died recently, right? The guy who released 02:02:55.360 --> 02:02:58.157 the Pentagon papers. Yeah. So, you know, it's complicated, 02:02:58.240 --> 02:02:59.517 >> but it's Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. It's 02:02:59.600 --> 02:03:02.077 this thing. Yeah. He didn't, you know, he left office shortly there after. He 02:03:02.160 --> 02:03:04.557 didn't have time to, you know, fully figure this out. I don't know whether he 02:03:04.640 --> 02:03:07.037 would have figured it out or not. You know, look, Ford could have figured it 02:03:07.120 --> 02:03:08.237 out. Carter could have figured it out. 02:03:08.320 --> 02:03:10.397 Reagan could have figured it out. any of these guys could have figured it out. 02:03:10.480 --> 02:03:13.197 It's like the most obvious, knowing what we know today, it's the most obvious 02:03:13.280 --> 02:03:16.237 thing in the world. The Russia thing is the amazing thing. It's like Europe is 02:03:16.320 --> 02:03:20.077 literally funding Russia's invasion of Ukraine by paying them for oil, right? 02:03:20.160 --> 02:03:23.357 And they can't shut off the oil because they won't cut over to nuclear, right? 02:03:23.440 --> 02:03:25.997 And then of course what happens, okay, so then here's the other kicker of what 02:03:26.080 --> 02:03:29.437 happens, right? Which is they won't do nuclear, but they want to do renewables, 02:03:29.520 --> 02:03:33.517 right? Sustainable energy. And so what they do is they do uh solar and wind. 02:03:33.600 --> 02:03:37.437 Solar and wind are not reliable [snorts] because it sometimes gets dark out and 02:03:37.520 --> 02:03:40.797 sometimes the wind doesn't blow. And so then what happens is they fire up the 02:03:40.880 --> 02:03:44.637 coal plants, right? And so the actual consequence of the precautionary 02:03:44.720 --> 02:03:48.717 principle for the purpose it was invented is a massive spike in use of coal. 02:03:48.800 --> 02:03:50.637 >> That's taking us back over a hundred years. 02:03:50.720 --> 02:03:52.957 >> Yes. Correct. That is the consequence of 02:03:53.040 --> 02:03:56.477 the precautionary principle. Like that's the consequence of that mentality. And 02:03:56.560 --> 02:03:59.757 so it's a failure of a principle on its own merits for the thing it was designed 02:03:59.840 --> 02:04:03.037 for. And then, you know, there there's a whole movement of people who want to 02:04:03.120 --> 02:04:06.157 apply it to every new thing. And and and and this is the hot topic on AI right 02:04:06.240 --> 02:04:09.037 now in in Washington, which is like, oh my god, these people have to prove that 02:04:09.120 --> 02:04:10.557 this can never get used for bad things. 02:04:10.640 --> 02:04:12.077 >> Sorry, I'm hung up on this nuclear 02:04:12.160 --> 02:04:15.677 thing. And and um I wonder uh can it 02:04:15.760 --> 02:04:20.077 just be renamed? I mean, seriously, I mean, there is something about the 02:04:20.160 --> 02:04:24.717 naming of things. We know this in biology, right? I mean, um you know, uh 02:04:24.800 --> 02:04:28.477 Lamarian evolution and things like that are bad. These are bad words in biology. 02:04:28.560 --> 02:04:31.597 But we had a guest on this podcast. So did Rashavei who's over in Israel who's 02:04:31.680 --> 02:04:36.477 shown you know inherited traits but if you talk about his Lamarian then it has 02:04:36.560 --> 02:04:40.557 all sorts of negative implications but he's the his discoveries have important 02:04:40.640 --> 02:04:44.477 implications for everything from inherited trauma to treatment of 02:04:44.560 --> 02:04:47.917 disease. I mean there's all sorts of positives that await us if we are able 02:04:48.000 --> 02:04:51.917 to reframe our thinking around something that yes indeed could be used for evil, 02:04:52.000 --> 02:04:54.877 >> right? >> Um but that has enormous potential and 02:04:54.960 --> 02:04:59.517 that is in agreement with nature, >> right? This fundamental truth that um at 02:04:59.600 --> 02:05:03.997 least to my knowledge no one is revising in any significant way anytime soon. So 02:05:04.080 --> 02:05:06.237 what if it were called something else? 02:05:06.320 --> 02:05:10.637 >> Instead of nuclear, it's it's called um you know sustainable, right? I mean, 02:05:10.720 --> 02:05:15.117 it's amazing how marketing can can shift our perspective of robots, for instance, 02:05:15.200 --> 02:05:17.517 or um anyway, I'm sure you can come up 02:05:17.600 --> 02:05:19.437 with better examples than I can, but uh 02:05:19.520 --> 02:05:23.677 is there a uh good solid PR uh firm 02:05:23.760 --> 02:05:25.757 working from the nuclear side? 02:05:25.840 --> 02:05:30.317 >> Thunberian. Greta Thunderberg. Um oh, Thumbergian. 02:05:30.400 --> 02:05:33.277 >> Then like if she got if she was in favor of it. Yeah. 02:05:33.360 --> 02:05:35.517 >> Which by the way, she's not. She's dead set against it. 02:05:35.600 --> 02:05:40.317 >> She said that >> 100%. Yeah. ba based on >> based on principles. 02:05:40.400 --> 02:05:43.597 >> The prevailing the prevailing ethic in environmentalism for 50 years is that 02:05:43.680 --> 02:05:46.317 nuclear is evil. Like they won't consider it. There are by the way 02:05:46.400 --> 02:05:48.957 certain environmentalists who disagree with this and so Stuart Brand is the one 02:05:49.040 --> 02:05:51.597 that's been the most public and he has impeccable credentials in the space and 02:05:51.680 --> 02:05:52.877 he wrote this >> polar catalog. 02:05:52.960 --> 02:05:55.517 >> Polar catalog guy. Yeah. And um he's written a whole bunch of really 02:05:55.600 --> 02:05:57.997 interesting books since and he he wrote a recent book that goes through in 02:05:58.080 --> 02:06:01.037 detail. He's like yes obviously the correct environmental thing to do is 02:06:01.120 --> 02:06:04.157 nuclear power. Um and we should be we should be implementing project 02:06:04.240 --> 02:06:06.797 independence. We should be building a thousand. We should specifically we 02:06:06.880 --> 02:06:09.037 should He didn't say this, but this is what I would say. We should hire Charles 02:06:09.120 --> 02:06:12.957 Ko. [laughter] We should hire KO Industries, 02:06:13.040 --> 02:06:15.597 right? And they should build us a thousand nuclear power plants, right? 02:06:15.680 --> 02:06:18.317 And then we should give him the Presidential Medal of Freedom for saving 02:06:18.400 --> 02:06:21.677 the environment. >> And that would put us independent of our reliance on oil. 02:06:21.760 --> 02:06:23.917 >> Yeah. Then we're done with oil. Like we're just think about what happens. 02:06:24.000 --> 02:06:25.517 We're done with oil. Zero emissions. 02:06:25.600 --> 02:06:28.837 We're done with the Middle East. We're done. We're done. We We're not 02:06:28.920 --> 02:06:31.037 [clears throat] drilling We're not drilling on American land anymore. We're 02:06:31.120 --> 02:06:34.237 not drilling on foreign land. like we have no military entanglements in places 02:06:34.320 --> 02:06:37.357 where we're drilling. We're not, you know, despoiling in Alaska. We're not 02:06:37.440 --> 02:06:38.957 nothing. No offshore rigs, no nothing. 02:06:39.040 --> 02:06:42.237 We're done. And you basically just you build state-of-the-art plants engineered 02:06:42.320 --> 02:06:44.797 properly. You have them just completely contained when there's nuclear waste. 02:06:44.880 --> 02:06:48.797 You just entomb the waste, right, in concrete. So it it it just sits there, 02:06:48.880 --> 02:06:51.997 you know, forever. Um it's just very small, you know, footprint, you know, 02:06:52.080 --> 02:06:54.237 kind of thing. Um and you're just done. 02:06:54.320 --> 02:06:57.757 And so this is like the to me it's like scientifically, technologically, this is 02:06:57.840 --> 02:07:01.117 just like the most obvious thing in the world. Um it's a massive tell on the 02:07:01.200 --> 02:07:03.517 part of the people who claim to be pro- environment that they're not in favor of 02:07:03.600 --> 02:07:06.877 this. >> And if I were to say um tweet that I'm 02:07:06.960 --> 02:07:10.877 pro nuclear power because it's the more sustainable form of power. If I 02:07:10.960 --> 02:07:15.037 hypothetically did that today um what would happen to me in this 02:07:15.120 --> 02:07:18.797 >> cryptofascist, you know, [laughter] interesting 02:07:18.880 --> 02:07:22.157 >> dirty evil capitalist, you know, monster, how dare you? 02:07:22.240 --> 02:07:24.957 >> I'm unlikely to run that experiment. I was just curious. That was what we call 02:07:25.040 --> 02:07:26.877 a Gdankan experiment. Experiment in Earth. 02:07:26.960 --> 02:07:29.837 >> You're a terrible Andrew. You're a terrible human being. Wow, we we were 02:07:29.920 --> 02:07:32.077 looking for evidence that you're a terrible human being and now now we know 02:07:32.160 --> 02:07:36.077 it, right? And so this is a great example of of the I I gave Andrew a book 02:07:36.160 --> 02:07:38.637 on the way in here with this. My favorite new book is the title of it is 02:07:38.720 --> 02:07:41.917 when reason goes on holiday. [snorts] Um and this is a great example of it is 02:07:42.000 --> 02:07:44.957 that the people who are who the people who simultaneously say they're 02:07:45.040 --> 02:07:47.517 environmentalists and say they're anti-uclear power. Like the positions 02:07:47.600 --> 02:07:51.997 just simply don't reconcile. But that doesn't bother them like at all. So be 02:07:52.080 --> 02:07:54.717 clear, I predict none none of this will happen. 02:07:54.800 --> 02:07:59.037 >> Amazing. Uh I need to learn more about nuclear power. Long coal. 02:07:59.120 --> 02:08:02.557 >> Long coal. >> Long coal. Invest in coal >> because you think we're just going to 02:08:02.640 --> 02:08:05.917 revert. >> It's the energy source of the future. 02:08:06.000 --> 02:08:08.477 >> Well, because it can't be solar and wind because they're not reliable. So, you 02:08:08.560 --> 02:08:11.277 need something >> if it's not nuclear, it's going to be 02:08:11.360 --> 02:08:13.197 either like oil, natural gas, or coal. 02:08:13.280 --> 02:08:15.037 >> And you're unwilling to say bet on 02:08:15.120 --> 02:08:17.837 nuclear because you don't think that um 02:08:17.920 --> 02:08:22.157 the socopolitical elitist trends that are driving against 02:08:22.240 --> 02:08:24.237 nuclear are likely to dissipate anytime soon. 02:08:24.320 --> 02:08:26.557 >> Not a chance. I I can't imagine. It 02:08:26.640 --> 02:08:31.917 would be great if they did, but the that that they are the the powers that be are 02:08:32.000 --> 02:08:33.277 very locked in on this as a position. 02:08:33.360 --> 02:08:35.677 And look, they've been saying this for 50 years. And so they'd have to reverse 02:08:35.760 --> 02:08:38.717 themselves off of a bad position they've had for 50 years. And [clears throat] 02:08:38.800 --> 02:08:40.877 >> people really don't like to do that. 02:08:40.960 --> 02:08:43.597 >> One thing that's good about this and other podcasts is that young people 02:08:43.680 --> 02:08:45.677 listen and they eventually will take over. 02:08:45.760 --> 02:08:49.357 >> Yeah. And by the way, I will say also there are nuclear entrepreneurs. Um so 02:08:49.440 --> 02:08:51.837 there are actually a b there are a bunch on the point of young kids, there are a 02:08:51.920 --> 02:08:54.877 bunch of young entrepreneurs who are basically not taking no for an answer. 02:08:54.960 --> 02:08:57.037 um and they're trying to develop and in particularly there's people trying to 02:08:57.120 --> 02:09:01.917 develop new very small form factor uh nuclear power um plants um with a 02:09:02.000 --> 02:09:06.157 variety of possible use cases. Um so you know look maybe you know maybe they show 02:09:06.240 --> 02:09:09.597 up with a better mousetrap and people take a second look but we'll see 02:09:09.680 --> 02:09:11.917 >> or just rename it. Um [laughter] 02:09:12.000 --> 02:09:15.197 so my understanding is that you think we 02:09:15.280 --> 02:09:18.477 should go all in on AI with the 02:09:18.560 --> 02:09:23.517 constraints that we discover we need in order to rein in safety and things of 02:09:23.600 --> 02:09:25.117 that sort. Not unlike social media. 02:09:25.200 --> 02:09:27.117 >> Yeah. >> Not unlike the internet. 02:09:27.200 --> 02:09:29.357 >> Not unlike what we should have done with nuclear power. 02:09:29.440 --> 02:09:31.437 >> Mhm. Yeah. 02:09:31.520 --> 02:09:34.477 >> And in terms of the um near infinite 02:09:34.560 --> 02:09:38.877 number of ways that AI can be envisioned to harm us, how do you think we should 02:09:38.960 --> 02:09:42.877 cope with that um psychologically? You know, because I can imagine a lot of 02:09:42.960 --> 02:09:45.837 people listening to this conversation are thinking, okay, that all sounds 02:09:45.920 --> 02:09:49.997 great, but there are just too many whatifs that are terrible, right? You 02:09:50.080 --> 02:09:53.357 know, what if the machines take over? Or what if you know I'll the silly example 02:09:53.440 --> 02:09:56.957 I gave earlier but um you know what if one day I could log into my um you know 02:09:57.040 --> 02:09:59.357 hard earned bank account and it's all gone right 02:09:59.440 --> 02:10:01.277 >> you know my the AI version of myself 02:10:01.360 --> 02:10:04.077 like ran off with someone else and with 02:10:04.160 --> 02:10:06.957 all my money right [laughter] 02:10:07.040 --> 02:10:11.597 my AI coach abandoned me for somebody else after it learned all the stuff that 02:10:11.680 --> 02:10:14.957 I taught it >> it took off with somebody else 02:10:15.040 --> 02:10:19.517 >> stranded [snorts] you know and it has my bank account numbers like this kind of 02:10:19.600 --> 02:10:21.197 thing right >> you could really make this scenario 02:10:21.280 --> 02:10:24.637 horrible if you kept going. [snorts] >> Yeah. Um well, we can throw in a 02:10:24.720 --> 02:10:28.077 benevolent example as well um to counter 02:10:28.160 --> 02:10:32.237 it. But um it's kind of fun to think about where the human mind goes, >> right? 02:10:32.320 --> 02:10:35.037 >> Yeah. So, first I I say we got to separate the real problems from the fake 02:10:35.120 --> 02:10:37.757 problems. And so there's a lot a lot of the science fiction scenarios I think 02:10:37.840 --> 02:10:40.797 are just not real. And the ones that you decided as an example, like it's not 02:10:40.880 --> 02:10:42.797 that's not what's going to happen. And I can explain why that's not what's going 02:10:42.880 --> 02:10:45.517 to happen. So you should there's a set of there's a set of fake ones. The fake 02:10:45.600 --> 02:10:49.117 ones are are ones or the ones that just aren't I think technologically grounded 02:10:49.200 --> 02:10:51.597 that aren't rational. It's the AI is going to like wake up and decide to kill 02:10:51.680 --> 02:10:54.397 us all. It's going to like yeah, it's going to develop the kind of agency 02:10:54.480 --> 02:10:56.797 where it's going to steal our money, you know, money and our spouse and 02:10:56.880 --> 02:11:00.957 everything else, our kids. Um like that's just that's not how it works. Um 02:11:01.040 --> 02:11:03.437 and then there's also all these concerns, you know, destruction of 02:11:03.520 --> 02:11:06.797 society concerns and this is, you know, misinformation, hate speech, deep fakes, 02:11:06.880 --> 02:11:10.397 like all that stuff. U which I I don't think is a real is actually a real 02:11:10.480 --> 02:11:13.917 problem. Um and then there's a people have a bunch of economic concerns around 02:11:14.000 --> 02:11:16.717 um you know, what's going to take all the jobs and all all those kinds of 02:11:16.800 --> 02:11:18.957 things. We could talk about that. I don't think those are those are those 02:11:19.040 --> 02:11:21.997 are I don't think that's actually the thing that happens. But then there are 02:11:22.080 --> 02:11:25.277 two actual real concerns that I actually do very much agree with and one of them 02:11:25.360 --> 02:11:28.797 is is what you said which is um bad people doing bad things and there's 02:11:28.880 --> 02:11:33.037 there's a whole set of things to be done inside there. The big one is we should 02:11:33.120 --> 02:11:37.037 use AI to build defenses against all the bad things, right? And so for for 02:11:37.120 --> 02:11:39.837 example, there's a concern AI is going to make it easier for bad people to 02:11:39.920 --> 02:11:43.037 build pathogens, right? Design pathogens in labs, which you know, bad people, bad 02:11:43.120 --> 02:11:46.077 scientists can do today, but this is going to make it easier easier to do. 02:11:46.160 --> 02:11:49.197 Well, obviously we should have the equivalent of an operation warp speed 02:11:49.280 --> 02:11:52.957 operating, you know, in perpetuity anyway, right? But then we should use AI 02:11:53.040 --> 02:11:56.157 to build much better bio defenses, right? And we should be using AI today 02:11:56.240 --> 02:11:59.197 to design like, for example, full spectrum vaccines against every possible 02:11:59.280 --> 02:12:03.757 form of pathogen, right? And so so defensive mechanism um hacking you can 02:12:03.840 --> 02:12:06.637 use AI to build better defense tools, right? And so you should you should have 02:12:06.720 --> 02:12:09.197 a whole new kind of security suite wrapped around you, wrapped around your 02:12:09.280 --> 02:12:13.197 data, wrapped around your money where you you're having AI uh repel um 02:12:13.280 --> 02:12:17.037 attacks, uh disinformation, hate speech, deep fakes, all that stuff. You should 02:12:17.120 --> 02:12:20.397 have an AI filter when you use the internet where it, you know, you 02:12:20.480 --> 02:12:23.037 shouldn't have to figure out whether it's really me or whether it's it's a 02:12:23.120 --> 02:12:25.837 madeup thing. You should have an AI assistant that's doing that for you. 02:12:25.920 --> 02:12:28.797 >> Oh yeah. I mean, these these little banners and cloaks that you see on 02:12:28.880 --> 02:12:32.397 social media, like this has been deemed misinformation that, you know, if you're 02:12:32.480 --> 02:12:35.997 me, you always click, right? Because you're like, what's behind the scrim? 02:12:36.080 --> 02:12:41.037 And then um or this is a I don't always look at the the this image is is 02:12:41.120 --> 02:12:42.957 gruesome type thing. Sometimes I just 02:12:43.040 --> 02:12:48.077 pass on that. But if it's something that um seems debatable, of course you look 02:12:48.160 --> 02:12:50.317 >> well. And you should have you should have an AI assistant with you when 02:12:50.400 --> 02:12:52.477 you're on the internet. And you should be able to tell that AI assistant what 02:12:52.560 --> 02:12:55.997 you want, right? So, yes, I want the full I want the full experience to show 02:12:56.080 --> 02:12:58.877 me everything. Um, I want it from a particular point of view, and I don't 02:12:58.960 --> 02:13:01.837 want to hear from these other people who I don't like. I, by the way, it's going 02:13:01.920 --> 02:13:04.397 to be my 8-year-old is using this. I don't want anything that's going to 02:13:04.480 --> 02:13:07.757 cause a problem, and I want everything filtered and and and AI based filters 02:13:07.840 --> 02:13:11.357 like that that you program and control are going to work much better uh and and 02:13:11.440 --> 02:13:13.997 be much more honest and straightforward and clear and so forth than than what we 02:13:14.080 --> 02:13:16.717 have today. So, so anyway, so so basically what I want people to do is 02:13:16.800 --> 02:13:19.357 think every time you think of like a risk of how it can be used, just think 02:13:19.440 --> 02:13:22.237 of like, okay, we can use it to build a counter measure. And the great thing 02:13:22.320 --> 02:13:25.117 about the countermeasures is they can not only offset AI risks, they can 02:13:25.200 --> 02:13:28.397 offset other risks, right? Because we already live in a world where pathogens 02:13:28.480 --> 02:13:32.317 are a problem, right? Um we ought to have better vaccines um anyway, right? 02:13:32.400 --> 02:13:34.637 Uh we already live in a world where there's cyber hacking and cyber 02:13:34.720 --> 02:13:37.037 terrorism. There already live in a world where there is bad content on the 02:13:37.120 --> 02:13:40.397 internet and we have the ability now to build much better AI powered tools to 02:13:40.480 --> 02:13:44.637 deal with all those things. I also love the idea of the AI 02:13:44.720 --> 02:13:48.717 physicians. >> Um, you know, getting decent health care 02:13:48.800 --> 02:13:53.037 in this country is so difficult even for people who have means or insurance. I 02:13:53.120 --> 02:13:56.157 mean, the number of phone calls and weights that you have to go through to 02:13:56.240 --> 02:14:00.317 get a referral to see a specialist. I mean, it's absurd. Like I mean, the 02:14:00.400 --> 02:14:05.437 process is is absurd. I mean, it makes one partially or frankly ill just to go 02:14:05.520 --> 02:14:08.877 through the process of having to do all that. I don't know how anyone does it. 02:14:08.960 --> 02:14:12.797 Um, and granted I don't have um the highest degree of patience, but I'm 02:14:12.880 --> 02:14:15.837 pretty patient and it drives me insane 02:14:15.920 --> 02:14:18.877 um to even just get a remedial care. But 02:14:18.960 --> 02:14:23.277 um so I can think of a lot of um benevolent uses of AI and I'm I'm 02:14:23.360 --> 02:14:26.477 grateful that you're bringing this up and uh here and that you've tweeted 02:14:26.560 --> 02:14:29.837 about it in that thread. Again, we'll refer people to that and that you're 02:14:29.920 --> 02:14:33.197 thinking about this. I have to imagine that in your role as investor um 02:14:33.280 --> 02:14:37.677 nowadays that you're also thinking about AI quite often um in terms of all these 02:14:37.760 --> 02:14:40.157 roles. Um and so does that mean that 02:14:40.240 --> 02:14:45.917 there are a lot of u young people who are really bullish on AI and are going for it? 02:14:46.000 --> 02:14:47.517 >> Yeah. >> Okay. This is here to stay. 02:14:47.600 --> 02:14:49.437 >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Yeah. Oh yeah. Big time. 02:14:49.520 --> 02:14:52.877 >> Okay. Unlike crisper which is sort of in this liinal place where biotech 02:14:52.960 --> 02:14:55.277 companies aren't sure if they should invest or not 02:14:55.360 --> 02:14:58.317 >> in in uh in crisper because it's unclear 02:14:58.400 --> 02:15:00.877 whether or not the governing bodies are going to allow gene editing. 02:15:00.960 --> 02:15:03.197 >> Right. >> Just like it was unclear uh 15 years ago 02:15:03.280 --> 02:15:05.997 if they were going to allow gene therapy. But now we know they do allow 02:15:06.080 --> 02:15:08.237 gene therapy and amunotherapy. Okay. 02:15:08.320 --> 02:15:10.477 >> So, there is a fight. Having said that, there is a fight. There's a fight 02:15:10.560 --> 02:15:13.917 happening in Washington right now over exactly what should be legal or not 02:15:14.000 --> 02:15:16.477 legal. Um, and there's quite a bit of risk, I think, attached to that fight 02:15:16.560 --> 02:15:19.357 right now because there are some people in there that are being telling a very 02:15:19.440 --> 02:15:22.877 effective story to try to get people to either outlaw AI or specifically limit 02:15:22.960 --> 02:15:27.277 it to a small number of big companies, which I think is potentially disastrous. 02:15:27.360 --> 02:15:31.117 Um, by the way, the EU also is like super negative. You know, the EU has 02:15:31.200 --> 02:15:33.517 turned super negative on basically all new technology. So, they're moving to 02:15:33.600 --> 02:15:38.397 try to outlaw AI, which if they succeed, >> outlaw AI. flat out don't want it. 02:15:38.480 --> 02:15:40.797 >> But that's like saying you're going to outlaw the internet. I don't see how you 02:15:40.880 --> 02:15:42.717 can stop this train. >> And frankly, they're not a big fan of 02:15:42.800 --> 02:15:46.397 the internet either. So like they're I I think they regret 02:15:46.480 --> 02:15:49.837 the EU has a very especially the EU bureaucrats, the people who run the EU 02:15:49.920 --> 02:15:52.797 in Brussels have a very negative view on 02:15:52.880 --> 02:15:56.957 a lot of modernity. [laughter] >> But what I'm hearing here, you know, 02:15:57.040 --> 02:16:00.077 calls to mind things that I've heard people like David Gogggin say, which is, 02:16:00.160 --> 02:16:03.597 you know, there's so many um lazy, undisiplined people out there that 02:16:03.680 --> 02:16:06.557 nowadays it's easier and easier to become exceptional. I've heard him say 02:16:06.640 --> 02:16:09.117 something to that extent. It almost sounds like there's so many countries 02:16:09.200 --> 02:16:11.277 that are just backing off of um 02:16:11.360 --> 02:16:13.037 particular technologies because it just 02:16:13.120 --> 02:16:16.477 sounds bad from the PR perspective um 02:16:16.560 --> 02:16:20.877 that you know it's creating great lowhanging fruit opportunities for 02:16:20.960 --> 02:16:23.837 people to barge forward and countries to barge forward if they're willing to 02:16:23.920 --> 02:16:26.397 embrace this stuff. >> It is but number one you have to have a 02:16:26.480 --> 02:16:29.917 country that wants to do that. Um and and those exist and there there are 02:16:30.000 --> 02:16:32.637 countries like that. Um but and then the other is look they they need to be able 02:16:32.720 --> 02:16:37.277 to withstand the attack from uh stronger countries that don't want them to do it 02:16:37.360 --> 02:16:41.037 right. So like EU like the EU has you know nominal control over like what 02:16:41.120 --> 02:16:44.557 whatever it is 27 or whatever member countries. So like even if you're like 02:16:44.640 --> 02:16:47.357 whatever the Germans get all fired up about whatever like Brussels can still 02:16:47.440 --> 02:16:50.077 in a lot of cases just like flat out basically control them and tell them not 02:16:50.160 --> 02:16:53.357 to do it right. And then the US I mean look we have you know we have a lot of 02:16:53.440 --> 02:16:56.877 control over a lot of the world >> but it sounds like we sit somewhere sort 02:16:56.960 --> 02:17:00.797 of in between like right now people are developing 02:17:00.880 --> 02:17:04.157 AI technologies in US companies right so it is happening 02:17:04.240 --> 02:17:05.597 >> yeah today today it's happening but like 02:17:05.680 --> 02:17:08.717 I said there's a set of people who are very focused in Washington right now 02:17:08.800 --> 02:17:12.877 about trying to either ban it outright um or trying to as I said limit it to a 02:17:12.960 --> 02:17:17.277 small number of big companies um and then look China's got a whole the front 02:17:17.360 --> 02:17:19.997 of this is China's got a whole different kind of take on this right than we do 02:17:20.080 --> 02:17:22.637 and So they're of course going to allow it for sure, but they're going to allow 02:17:22.720 --> 02:17:26.557 it in the ways that that their their system wants it to happen, right? Which 02:17:26.640 --> 02:17:31.037 is much more for population control um and to implement authoritarianism. Um 02:17:31.120 --> 02:17:34.077 and then of course they they they are going to spread their technology and 02:17:34.160 --> 02:17:37.837 their vision of how society should run across the world, right? So we're we're 02:17:37.920 --> 02:17:40.477 back in a cold war dynamic like we were with the Soviet Union where there are 02:17:40.560 --> 02:17:43.437 two different systems that have fundamentally different views on on 02:17:43.520 --> 02:17:46.557 issues, you know, concepts like freedom and and individual choice and freedom of 02:17:46.640 --> 02:17:50.077 speech and so on. Um, and you know, we know where the Chinese stand. We're 02:17:50.160 --> 02:17:53.117 still figuring out where we stand, >> right? There are a lot of So, I'm having 02:17:53.200 --> 02:17:55.597 a lot of schizophrenic I'm having specifically a lot of schizophrenic 02:17:55.680 --> 02:17:59.037 conversations with people in DC right now where if I talk to them in China, it 02:17:59.120 --> 02:18:02.557 doesn't come up. They just like hate tech, they hate American tech companies, 02:18:02.640 --> 02:18:05.197 they hate AI, they hate social media, they hate this, they hate that, they 02:18:05.280 --> 02:18:07.997 hate crypto, they hate everything, and they just want to like punish and like 02:18:08.080 --> 02:18:11.517 ban and like they're just like very very negative. But then if we have a 02:18:11.600 --> 02:18:14.717 conversation a half hour later and we talk about China, then the conversation 02:18:14.800 --> 02:18:17.037 totally different. Now we need a partnership between the US government 02:18:17.120 --> 02:18:21.437 and American tech companies to defeat China. It's it's like the exact opposite 02:18:21.520 --> 02:18:24.797 discussion, right? >> Is that fear or competitiveness >> on China specifically 02:18:24.880 --> 02:18:27.517 >> on on in terms of the the US response in 02:18:27.600 --> 02:18:32.237 Washington when you know you bring up these technologies like you know I'll 02:18:32.320 --> 02:18:35.357 lump crisper in there. Things like crisper, nuclear power, AI, it all 02:18:35.440 --> 02:18:38.717 sounds very cold, very dystopian to a lot of people 02:18:38.800 --> 02:18:43.357 >> and yet there are all these benevolent uses as we've been talking about. And 02:18:43.440 --> 02:18:46.477 then you say you raised the issue of China and then it sounds like this big 02:18:46.560 --> 02:18:50.797 you know dark cloud emerging and then all of a sudden you know it's we need to 02:18:50.880 --> 02:18:54.797 galvanize and and develop these technologies to counter their effort. So 02:18:54.880 --> 02:18:59.277 is it fear of them or is it competitiveness or both? Well, so 02:18:59.360 --> 02:19:03.677 without them in the picture, um you just have this basically it's it's there's an 02:19:03.760 --> 02:19:07.517 old bedin uh was a saying is me against my brother, me and my brother against my 02:19:07.600 --> 02:19:10.717 cousin, me and my brother, my cousin against, you know, the world, right? 02:19:10.800 --> 02:19:14.637 Like so so with it's it's actually it's evolution in action if the way I think 02:19:14.720 --> 02:19:17.437 would think about it is if there's no external threat, then the conflict turns 02:19:17.520 --> 02:19:19.437 inward. >> Um and then and then at that point 02:19:19.520 --> 02:19:23.437 there's a big fight between specifically tech and then I was just say generally 02:19:23.520 --> 02:19:26.877 politics and and my interpretation of that fight is it's a fight for status. 02:19:26.960 --> 02:19:29.917 It's fundamentally a fight for status and for power, which is like if you're 02:19:30.000 --> 02:19:33.277 in politics, you like the you like the status quo of how power and status work 02:19:33.360 --> 02:19:36.717 in our society. You don't want these new technologies to show up and change 02:19:36.800 --> 02:19:39.117 things because change is bad, right? 02:19:39.200 --> 02:19:41.597 Change threatens your position. It threatens your, you know, the respect 02:19:41.680 --> 02:19:44.877 that people have for you and your control over things. Um, and so I think 02:19:44.960 --> 02:19:49.037 it's primarily a status fight, which we could talk about. Um, but the the China 02:19:49.120 --> 02:19:52.157 thing is just like a straight up geopolitical us versus them. You know, 02:19:52.240 --> 02:19:55.357 like I said, it's like a cold war scenario. And you know, look, 20 years 02:19:55.440 --> 02:19:58.237 ago, the prevailing view in Washington was we need to be friends with China, 02:19:58.320 --> 02:20:00.557 right? And we're going to be trading partners with China. And yes, they're a 02:20:00.640 --> 02:20:03.517 totalitarian dictatorship, but like if we trade with them over time, they'll 02:20:03.600 --> 02:20:07.757 become more democratic. In the last 5 to 10 years, it's become more and more 02:20:07.840 --> 02:20:11.917 clear that that's just not true. Um, and now there's a lot of people in both 02:20:12.000 --> 02:20:15.917 political parties in DC who very much regret that and want to change to much 02:20:16.000 --> 02:20:17.757 more of a sort of a cold war footing. 02:20:17.840 --> 02:20:20.077 Are you willing to comment on Tik Tok 02:20:20.160 --> 02:20:24.877 and technologies that emerge from China that are in um widespread use within the 02:20:24.960 --> 02:20:28.317 US? Like how much you trust them or don't trust them? I can um go on record 02:20:28.400 --> 02:20:31.197 myself by saying that early on when Tik 02:20:31.280 --> 02:20:35.757 Tok was released, we were told as Stanford faculty that we should not and 02:20:35.840 --> 02:20:38.957 could not have Tik Tok accounts nor WeChat accounts. 02:20:39.040 --> 02:20:42.237 >> Right. >> So start with there are a lot of really 02:20:42.320 --> 02:20:45.357 bright Chinese tech entrepreneurs and engineers who are trying to do good 02:20:45.440 --> 02:20:49.277 things. I'm totally absolutely positive about that. So I think the many of the 02:20:49.360 --> 02:20:52.787 people mean mean very well. >> But the Chinese have a specific system 02:20:52.870 --> 02:20:56.077 [snorts] and the system is very clear and unambiguous. 02:20:56.160 --> 02:20:59.837 >> Um and the system is everything in China is owned by the party. It's not even 02:20:59.920 --> 02:21:01.357 owned by the state. It's owned by the party. It's owned by the Chinese 02:21:01.440 --> 02:21:03.597 Communist Party. So the Chinese Communist Party owns everything and they 02:21:03.680 --> 02:21:06.477 control everything. By the way, it's actually illegal to this day. It's 02:21:06.560 --> 02:21:10.157 illegal for an foreign investor to buy equity in a Chinese company. There's all 02:21:10.240 --> 02:21:13.517 these like basically legal machinations that people do to try to do something 02:21:13.600 --> 02:21:16.237 that's like economically equivalent to that. But it's actually still illegal to 02:21:16.320 --> 02:21:19.037 do that. The chi Chinese have no intention. The Chinese Communist Party 02:21:19.120 --> 02:21:23.117 has no intention of letting foreigners own any of China. Like zero intention of 02:21:23.200 --> 02:21:26.077 that. And they they they regularly move to make sure that that doesn't happen. 02:21:26.160 --> 02:21:29.357 So so so they own everything. They control everything. So 02:21:29.440 --> 02:21:32.717 >> sorry to interrupt you, but people in China can invest in American companies 02:21:32.800 --> 02:21:35.597 essentially all the time. >> Well, they can subject to US government 02:21:35.680 --> 02:21:39.037 constraints. There there is a there is a US government system that attempts to 02:21:39.120 --> 02:21:42.637 mediate that called CPHAS. Um and there are more and more there are more and 02:21:42.720 --> 02:21:45.997 more limitations being put on that. uh if you can get through that approval 02:21:46.080 --> 02:21:47.677 process then legally you can do that 02:21:47.760 --> 02:21:49.117 whereas the same is not true with 02:21:49.200 --> 02:21:53.437 respect to China um and so um so so they 02:21:53.520 --> 02:21:56.957 just have a system and so if you're if you're the CEO of a Chinese company it's 02:21:57.040 --> 02:22:00.797 not optional if you're the CEO of bite dance or CEO of 10centent it's not opt 02:22:00.880 --> 02:22:04.157 your relationship with the Chinese communist party is not optional it's 02:22:04.240 --> 02:22:08.157 required and what's required is you are a unit of the party and you and your 02:22:08.240 --> 02:22:11.437 company do what the party says and when the party says we get full access to all 02:22:11.520 --> 02:22:15.197 user data in America you say When the party says you change the 02:22:15.280 --> 02:22:19.357 algorithm to optimize to a certain social result, you say yes. Right? So, 02:22:19.440 --> 02:22:22.957 so it's just it's whatever it's whatever it's whatever Xiinping and his party 02:22:23.040 --> 02:22:27.117 cadres decide and that's what's gets implemented. If you're the CEO of a 02:22:27.200 --> 02:22:30.717 Chinese tech company, there is a political officer assigned to you who 02:22:30.800 --> 02:22:34.317 has an office down the hall. Um, and at any given time he can come down the 02:22:34.400 --> 02:22:36.957 hall, he can grab you out of your staff meeting or board meeting and he can take 02:22:37.040 --> 02:22:40.237 you down the hall and he can make you sit for hours and study Marxism and Xi 02:22:40.320 --> 02:22:42.877 Jinping thought and quiz you on it and test you on it. Wow. 02:22:42.960 --> 02:22:45.037 >> And you'd better pass the test, right? 02:22:45.120 --> 02:22:48.317 So, so it's like a straight political control [laughter] thing. And then, by 02:22:48.400 --> 02:22:49.837 the way, if you get crossed with them, 02:22:49.920 --> 02:22:52.957 like, you know, 02:22:53.040 --> 02:22:55.997 so when we see um uh tech founders 02:22:56.080 --> 02:23:00.877 getting called up to Congress for um you know, what looks like interrogation, but 02:23:00.960 --> 02:23:03.997 it's probably pretty light interrogation compared to what happens in other 02:23:04.080 --> 02:23:05.997 countries. >> Yeah, it's it's a it's a it's state it's 02:23:06.080 --> 02:23:08.637 state power. They they just they just have this view of top down state power 02:23:08.720 --> 02:23:11.357 and they view it's that their system and they view that it's necessary for lots 02:23:11.440 --> 02:23:13.757 of historical and moral reasons that they've defined and that's how they run 02:23:13.840 --> 02:23:16.237 and then they've got a view that says how they want to propagate that vision 02:23:16.320 --> 02:23:19.757 outside the country and they have these programs like belt and road right um 02:23:19.840 --> 02:23:21.357 that basically are intended to propagate 02:23:21.440 --> 02:23:27.197 kind of their vision worldwide um and so they are who they are like I will say 02:23:27.280 --> 02:23:29.597 that they don't lie about it right they're they're very straightforward 02:23:29.680 --> 02:23:32.477 >> they give speeches they write books you can buy Xiinping speeches he goes 02:23:32.560 --> 02:23:35.277 through the whole thing they have they have their tech 2025 plan talk about you 02:23:35.360 --> 02:23:38.477 know this is like 10 years ago So their whole AI agenda, it's all in there. 02:23:38.560 --> 02:23:42.957 >> And is there a goal that you know in 200 years, 300 years that China is the 02:23:43.040 --> 02:23:45.117 superpower controlling everything? 02:23:45.200 --> 02:23:48.077 >> Well, yeah. Or 20 years, 30 years or two years, three years. Yeah. 02:23:48.160 --> 02:23:49.197 >> Well, they got a shorter horizon. 02:23:49.280 --> 02:23:52.157 >> I mean, look, they're Yeah. They're they're I mean, if if you're it's you 02:23:52.240 --> 02:23:54.317 know, I don't know, everybody's a little bit like this, I guess, but yeah, if 02:23:54.400 --> 02:23:58.717 you're they want to win. Mhm. >> Well, the the crisper in humans example 02:23:58.800 --> 02:24:01.517 that I gave earlier was interesting to me because first of all, I'm a 02:24:01.600 --> 02:24:04.637 neuroscientist and they could have um 02:24:04.720 --> 02:24:09.197 edited any genes, but they chose to edit the genes involved in um the attempt to 02:24:09.280 --> 02:24:11.597 create supermemory babies, >> right? 02:24:11.680 --> 02:24:13.357 >> Which presumably grow into supermemory 02:24:13.440 --> 02:24:17.037 adults. Um and whether or not they 02:24:17.120 --> 02:24:19.037 succeeded in that isn't clear. Those 02:24:19.120 --> 02:24:24.397 babies are alive and presumably by now walking talking as far as I know. 02:24:24.480 --> 02:24:25.677 Whether or not they have super memories 02:24:25.760 --> 02:24:29.597 isn't clear, but um China is clearly 02:24:29.680 --> 02:24:33.197 unafraid to augment biology in that way. 02:24:33.280 --> 02:24:38.877 Um and I believe that that's inevitable. 02:24:38.960 --> 02:24:41.837 That's going to happen elsewhere. Um probably first for the treatment of 02:24:41.920 --> 02:24:46.157 disease, but at some point I'm assuming people are going to augment biology to 02:24:46.240 --> 02:24:51.117 make smarter kids. I mean, people um not always, but um often will select mates 02:24:51.200 --> 02:24:54.717 based on the traits they would like their children to inherit. So this 02:24:54.800 --> 02:24:59.117 happens far more frequently than could be deemed uh bad because either that or 02:24:59.200 --> 02:25:02.237 people are bad because people do this all the time. Selecting mates that have 02:25:02.320 --> 02:25:06.157 physical and psychological and cognitive traits that you would like your 02:25:06.240 --> 02:25:09.037 offspring to have. >> Crisper is a more targeted approach. Of 02:25:09.120 --> 02:25:12.397 course, you know, the reason I'm kind of giving this example and and examples 02:25:12.480 --> 02:25:14.797 like it is that I feel like so much of 02:25:14.880 --> 02:25:17.517 the way that um governments and the and 02:25:17.600 --> 02:25:21.997 the public react to technologies is to just, you know, take that first glimpse 02:25:22.080 --> 02:25:24.397 and it just feels scary. 02:25:24.480 --> 02:25:29.037 >> Um you think about the old Apple ad of the, you know, 1984 ad. I mean, there 02:25:29.120 --> 02:25:32.637 was one very scary version of the personal computer and computers and 02:25:32.720 --> 02:25:36.797 robots taking over and everyone like automatons. And then there was the Apple 02:25:36.880 --> 02:25:39.677 version where it's all about creativity, love, and peace. And it had the 02:25:39.760 --> 02:25:41.597 pseudocychedelic California thing going 02:25:41.680 --> 02:25:45.917 for it. Again, great marketing seems to 02:25:46.000 --> 02:25:48.397 convert people's thinking about 02:25:48.480 --> 02:25:51.197 technology such that what was once 02:25:51.280 --> 02:25:56.557 viewed as very scary and dangerous and dystopian is like an oasis of 02:25:56.640 --> 02:25:59.597 opportunity. >> So why are people so afraid of new 02:25:59.680 --> 02:26:03.357 technologies? So, this is the thing I've tried to understand for a long time 02:26:03.440 --> 02:26:07.757 because the history is so clear. Um, and the history basically is every new 02:26:07.840 --> 02:26:11.517 technology is greeted by what's called a moral panic. Um, and so it's basically 02:26:11.600 --> 02:26:15.197 this like hysterical freakout of some kind that causes people to basically 02:26:15.280 --> 02:26:18.157 predict the end of the world. And you go back in time and actually this 02:26:18.240 --> 02:26:21.357 historical sort of effect, it happens even in things now where you just go 02:26:21.440 --> 02:26:24.717 back and it's ludicrous, right? And so you mentioned earlier the satanic panic 02:26:24.800 --> 02:26:27.997 of the of the 80s and you know the concern around like heavy metal music, 02:26:28.080 --> 02:26:30.877 right? Before that, there was like a freakout around comic books, you know, 02:26:30.960 --> 02:26:34.877 in the 50s. There was a freakout around jazz music in the 20s and 30s. You know, 02:26:34.960 --> 02:26:38.397 it's devil music. Um, you know, there was a freakout, the arrival of bicycles 02:26:38.480 --> 02:26:40.717 caused a moral panic in the like 1860s, 187. 02:26:40.800 --> 02:26:42.637 >> Bicycles. >> Bicycles. Yeah. So, there was this thing 02:26:42.720 --> 02:26:46.877 at the time. So, bicycles were the first um they were the first very easy to use 02:26:46.960 --> 02:26:50.717 personal transportation thing that basically let kids travel between towns 02:26:50.800 --> 02:26:54.077 um uh you know, quickly um without any overhead, you know, to take care take 02:26:54.160 --> 02:26:54.200 care take care take care take care take care take care take care take care take 02:26:54.160 --> 02:26:57.597 care take care of a horse, just jump in a bike and go. Um and so it was there 02:26:57.680 --> 02:27:00.637 was a historical panic specifically around at the time young women um who 02:27:00.720 --> 02:27:04.557 for the first time were able to venture outside the confines of the town to 02:27:04.640 --> 02:27:08.317 maybe go have a boyfriend in another town. Um and so the magazines at the 02:27:08.400 --> 02:27:11.197 time ran all these stories on this phenomenon medical phenomenon called 02:27:11.280 --> 02:27:15.757 bicycle face. And the idea of bicycle face was the exertion caused by pedaling 02:27:15.840 --> 02:27:18.797 a bicycle would cause your face your face would grimace and then if you were 02:27:18.880 --> 02:27:22.397 on the bicycle for too long your face would lock into place and then right and 02:27:22.480 --> 02:27:25.837 then [laughter] right and then you would be you would be unattractive and 02:27:25.920 --> 02:27:28.477 therefore of course unable to then you know get married. 02:27:28.560 --> 02:27:33.757 >> Um uh cars there was a moral panic around car red flag laws. There were all 02:27:33.840 --> 02:27:36.237 these laws that greed the the automobile. Automobile freaked people 02:27:36.320 --> 02:27:39.837 out. So there are all these laws if in the early days of the automobile um in a 02:27:39.920 --> 02:27:43.917 lot of places you had to um you would take a ride an automobile uh and 02:27:44.000 --> 02:27:46.317 automobiles they broke down all the time. So it would be you only rich 02:27:46.400 --> 02:27:49.997 people had automobiles be you and your mechanic [laughter] in in the car right 02:27:50.080 --> 02:27:51.757 for when it broke down and then you had 02:27:51.840 --> 02:27:54.797 to hire another guy um to walk 200 yards 02:27:54.880 --> 02:27:58.957 in front of the car with a red flag. Um and he had to wave the red flag and so 02:27:59.040 --> 02:28:01.757 you could only drive as fast as he could walk because the red flag was to warn 02:28:01.840 --> 02:28:03.677 people that the that the car was coming. 02:28:03.760 --> 02:28:06.557 And and then and then in I think it was Pennsylvania, they had the most 02:28:06.640 --> 02:28:10.317 draconian version which was uh they were very worried about the cars scaring the 02:28:10.400 --> 02:28:14.957 horses. Um and so there was a law that said if you saw a horse coming um you 02:28:15.040 --> 02:28:18.237 need to stop the car, you had to disassemble the car and you had to hide 02:28:18.320 --> 02:28:22.477 the pieces of the car behind the nearest hay bale, >> wait for the horse to go by 02:28:22.560 --> 02:28:24.157 >> and and then you could put your car back 02:28:24.240 --> 02:28:27.997 together. So So anyways, just example, there's electric lighting. there was a 02:28:28.080 --> 02:28:30.637 panic around like whether was this going to like completely ruin you know this is 02:28:30.720 --> 02:28:32.957 going to completely ruin like the romance of the dark and it was going to 02:28:33.040 --> 02:28:35.837 cause you know you know a whole new kind of like terrible civilization where 02:28:35.920 --> 02:28:39.197 everything is always brightly lit so there's just like all these examples and 02:28:39.280 --> 02:28:42.157 so it's like okay what on earth is happening that this is always what 02:28:42.240 --> 02:28:45.757 happens and so I finally found this book that I think has a has a good model for 02:28:45.840 --> 02:28:49.597 it is called men machines in modern times and it's written by this MIT 02:28:49.680 --> 02:28:53.437 professor like 60 years ago so it it predates the internet um but it uses a 02:28:53.520 --> 02:28:57.277 lot of historical examples and what he says basically is he says There's 02:28:57.360 --> 02:28:58.797 there's actually a three-stage response. 02:28:58.880 --> 02:29:01.597 There's a three-stage societal response to new technologies. It's very 02:29:01.680 --> 02:29:05.997 predictable. He said stage one is um basically just denial. Uh just ignore 02:29:06.080 --> 02:29:08.637 like we just like don't pay attention to this. Nobody takes it seriously. We just 02:29:08.720 --> 02:29:12.557 like there's just a blackout on the whole topic. Um he says stage uh that's 02:29:12.640 --> 02:29:16.637 stage one. Stage two is rational counterargument. Um so stage two is 02:29:16.720 --> 02:29:19.357 where you line up all the different reasons why this can't possibly work. It 02:29:19.440 --> 02:29:22.877 can't possibly ever get you know cheap or you know this that you know it's not 02:29:22.960 --> 02:29:24.877 fast enough or whatever the thing is. 02:29:24.960 --> 02:29:29.197 And then he says stage three he says is when the name calling begins. Um so he 02:29:29.280 --> 02:29:33.677 says stage three is like when right right so when they failed to ignore it 02:29:33.760 --> 02:29:35.837 and they failed to argue society out of it. 02:29:35.920 --> 02:29:37.757 >> I love it. >> They move to the name calling. Right. 02:29:37.840 --> 02:29:40.557 And what's the name calling? The name calling is this is evil. This is moral 02:29:40.640 --> 02:29:41.997 panic. This is evil. This is terrible. 02:29:42.080 --> 02:29:44.877 This is awful. This is going to destroy everything. Like don't you understand 02:29:44.960 --> 02:29:48.157 like you know all this you know this is just like this is this is horrifying and 02:29:48.240 --> 02:29:51.117 you you know the person working on being reckless and evil and you know all all 02:29:51.200 --> 02:29:54.557 this stuff and you must be stopped. and and he said the reason for that is 02:29:54.640 --> 02:29:57.677 because basically fundamentally what these things are is they're a war over 02:29:57.760 --> 02:30:01.357 status. Um it's a it's a it's a war over status and therefore a war over power 02:30:01.440 --> 02:30:05.677 and and then of course ult ultimately money but but status human status is the 02:30:05.760 --> 02:30:09.597 thing and so and because what he says is what what is the societal impact of a 02:30:09.680 --> 02:30:13.277 new technology? The societal impact of a new technology is it reorders status in 02:30:13.360 --> 02:30:16.957 the society. So the people who are specialists in that technology become 02:30:17.040 --> 02:30:20.077 high status and the people who are specialists in the previous way of doing 02:30:20.160 --> 02:30:24.317 things become low status and generally people don't adapt. Right? Generally if 02:30:24.400 --> 02:30:27.597 you're the kind of person who is high status because you're you're you're an 02:30:27.680 --> 02:30:30.877 evolved adaptation to an existing technology, you're probably not the kind 02:30:30.960 --> 02:30:33.677 of person that's going to enthus enthusiastically try to replant yourself 02:30:33.760 --> 02:30:36.477 onto a new technology. >> And so and so this is like every 02:30:36.560 --> 02:30:39.357 politician who's just like in a complete state of panic about social media. Like 02:30:39.440 --> 02:30:42.157 why are they so freaked out about social media is because they all know that the 02:30:42.240 --> 02:30:44.877 whole nature of modern politics has changed. the entire battery of 02:30:44.960 --> 02:30:48.477 techniques that you use to get elected before social media are now obsolete. 02:30:48.560 --> 02:30:51.277 Obviously, the best new politicians of the future are going to be 100% 02:30:51.360 --> 02:30:54.157 creations of social media >> and podcast and podcast. 02:30:54.240 --> 02:30:57.197 >> And we're seeing this now as we head towards the next presidential election 02:30:57.280 --> 02:31:00.077 that podcasts uh clearly are going to be 02:31:00.160 --> 02:31:04.477 featured very heavily in that next election because long form content is a 02:31:04.560 --> 02:31:07.197 whole different landscape. >> So, this is exact. So this is the this 02:31:07.280 --> 02:31:10.477 is so so Rogan Rogan's had like what like he's had like Bernie, he's had like 02:31:10.560 --> 02:31:14.157 Tulsi, he's had like a whole series of >> RK most recently and that's created a 02:31:14.240 --> 02:31:16.797 lot of >> controversies. But also my understanding 02:31:16.880 --> 02:31:18.077 he's I'm sure he's invited everybody. 02:31:18.160 --> 02:31:20.317 I'm sure he I'm sure he'd love to have Biden on. I'm sure he'd love to have 02:31:20.400 --> 02:31:22.477 Trump on. I'm sure he >> You'd have to ask him. I mean I think 02:31:22.560 --> 02:31:25.117 that um you know every podcaster has 02:31:25.200 --> 02:31:27.517 their own ethos around who they invite 02:31:27.600 --> 02:31:32.317 on and why and how. Um, so I certainly can't speak for him, but um, 02:31:32.400 --> 02:31:36.717 >> but I have to imagine that any opportunity to have true long- form 02:31:36.800 --> 02:31:40.637 discourse that would allow people to really understand people's positions on 02:31:40.720 --> 02:31:44.877 things, >> I have to imagine that he would be in favor of that thing. 02:31:44.960 --> 02:31:46.157 >> Yeah. Or somebody else would, right? You 02:31:46.240 --> 02:31:50.557 know, some some other top podcast would, right? And so so there's a if my point 02:31:50.640 --> 02:31:53.277 Exactly. I totally agree with you, but my point is if if you're a politician, 02:31:53.360 --> 02:31:57.037 if you're if you're let's say a legacy politician, right? You have the option 02:31:57.120 --> 02:32:00.877 of embracing the new technology. You can do it anytime you want, right? But you 02:32:00.960 --> 02:32:05.277 you don't they're not they won't like they won't do it. And why won't they do 02:32:05.360 --> 02:32:07.597 it? Well, okay, first of all, they want to ignore it, right? They want to 02:32:07.680 --> 02:32:10.477 pretend that things aren't changing, you know? Second is they want like have 02:32:10.560 --> 02:32:13.277 rational counter arguments for like why the existing campaign system works the 02:32:13.360 --> 02:32:15.837 way that it does and this and that and the existing media networks and like 02:32:15.920 --> 02:32:18.317 here's how you like do things and here's how you give speeches and here's the 02:32:18.400 --> 02:32:20.557 clothes you wear and the tie and the thing and the pocket square and like 02:32:20.640 --> 02:32:23.437 you've got your whole system. It's how you succeeded was coming up through that 02:32:23.520 --> 02:32:26.237 system. So you've got all your arguments as to why that won't work anymore. And 02:32:26.320 --> 02:32:29.757 then and then we've now proceeded to the the name calling phase, which is now 02:32:29.840 --> 02:32:33.357 it's evil, right? Now it's evil for somebody to show up in, you know, on a 02:32:33.440 --> 02:32:37.197 on a stream, god forbid, for three hours and actually say what they think, right? 02:32:37.280 --> 02:32:39.997 And it's going to destroy society, right? So it's exactly right. It's like 02:32:40.080 --> 02:32:43.677 it's it's a it's a classic example of this pattern. And anyway, so Morrison 02:32:43.760 --> 02:32:47.837 says in the book, um, basically this is the forever pattern. Like this will 02:32:47.920 --> 02:32:50.957 never change. This will this is one of those things where you can learn about 02:32:51.040 --> 02:32:53.677 it and still nothing the entire world could learn about this and still nothing 02:32:53.760 --> 02:32:57.437 changes because at the end of the day it's not it has it's not the tech that's 02:32:57.520 --> 02:33:01.037 the question it's it's the reordering of status. 02:33:01.120 --> 02:33:04.797 >> Um I have a lot of thoughts about the podcast component. Uh I'll just say this 02:33:04.880 --> 02:33:07.037 because I want to get back to um the 02:33:07.120 --> 02:33:10.317 topic of innovation of technology. Um 02:33:10.400 --> 02:33:14.157 but on a long form podcast there's no um 02:33:14.240 --> 02:33:16.717 safe zone. you know, the person can get 02:33:16.800 --> 02:33:19.117 up and walk out, but if the person 02:33:19.200 --> 02:33:21.517 interviewing them, and certainly Joe is 02:33:21.600 --> 02:33:24.557 um the best of the very best, if not the 02:33:24.640 --> 02:33:29.757 most skilled podcaster in the entire universe at continuing to press people 02:33:29.840 --> 02:33:33.517 on specific topics when they're, you know, trying to bob and weave and wrigle 02:33:33.600 --> 02:33:36.157 wrigle out. He'll just keep, you know, 02:33:36.240 --> 02:33:40.637 either drilling or alter the question somewhat in a way that forces them to 02:33:40.720 --> 02:33:42.477 finally come up with an answer of some 02:33:42.560 --> 02:33:45.677 sort. And I think that probably um puts 02:33:45.760 --> 02:33:50.157 certain people's cortisol levels through the roof um such that they just would 02:33:50.240 --> 02:33:52.157 never go on there. >> I think there's another deeper question 02:33:52.240 --> 02:33:54.957 also or another question along with that which is how many people actually have 02:33:55.040 --> 02:33:58.397 something to say [laughter] 02:33:58.480 --> 02:34:01.997 >> real substance like how many people can actually talk in a way that's actually 02:34:02.080 --> 02:34:04.717 interesting to anybody else for any length of time. 02:34:04.800 --> 02:34:06.237 >> Like how much substance is there really? 02:34:06.320 --> 02:34:09.997 And like a lot of historical politics was to be able to manufacture a facade 02:34:10.080 --> 02:34:12.957 where you honestly as far as I you can't tell 02:34:13.040 --> 02:34:15.437 >> like how how deep the thoughts are. Like even if they have deep thoughts like 02:34:15.520 --> 02:34:16.717 it's it's kept it's kept away from you. 02:34:16.800 --> 02:34:18.557 They would certainly never cop to it. 02:34:18.640 --> 02:34:22.477 >> It's going to be an interesting next what is it about uh you know 20 months 02:34:22.560 --> 02:34:24.717 or so um leading into the next election. 02:34:24.800 --> 02:34:26.797 >> Panic and the name calling have already started. So yeah it's 02:34:26.880 --> 02:34:31.437 >> yeah I was gonna say this list of three things denial um you know uh the 02:34:31.520 --> 02:34:35.277 counterargument and name calling. It seems like with AI um it's already just 02:34:35.360 --> 02:34:37.277 jumped to numbers two and three. 02:34:37.360 --> 02:34:38.877 >> That's correct. >> Right. We're already at two and three 02:34:38.960 --> 02:34:40.397 and it's kind of leaning three. 02:34:40.480 --> 02:34:42.157 >> Yes. >> Yeah. That's correct. 02:34:42.240 --> 02:34:46.637 >> Well, so AI is unusual just because um it had So new technologies that take 02:34:46.720 --> 02:34:49.117 off, they almost always have a prehistory. They almost always have a 30 02:34:49.200 --> 02:34:51.677 or 40 year history where people tried and failed to get them to work before 02:34:51.760 --> 02:34:55.277 they took off. AI has an 80-year prehistory. So it has a very long one. 02:34:55.360 --> 02:34:57.197 >> Um and then it it it just it all of a 02:34:57.280 --> 02:35:02.477 sudden started to work dramatically well like seemingly overnight. And so it it 02:35:02.560 --> 02:35:05.437 went from basically it as far as most people were concerned it went from it 02:35:05.520 --> 02:35:08.237 doesn't work at all to it works incredibly well in one step and that 02:35:08.320 --> 02:35:11.037 almost never happens. And so and so I actually think that's exactly what's 02:35:11.120 --> 02:35:13.517 happening. I think it's actually speedrunning this progression just just 02:35:13.600 --> 02:35:17.277 because if you use midjourney or you use GPT or any of these things for five 02:35:17.360 --> 02:35:20.157 minutes you're just like wow like obviously this thing is going to be like 02:35:20.240 --> 02:35:22.957 the obviously in my life this is going to be the best thing ever. Like this is 02:35:23.040 --> 02:35:25.437 amazing. There's all these ways that I can use it and then it and then 02:35:25.520 --> 02:35:28.157 therefore immediately you're like oh my god this is going to transform 02:35:28.240 --> 02:35:32.397 everything. Therefore >> step three. Mhm. Right. Straight to the 02:35:32.480 --> 02:35:37.197 name calling. Exactly. >> In the face of all this, uh there are 02:35:37.280 --> 02:35:41.757 innovators out there. Maybe they are aware they are innovators. Um uh maybe 02:35:41.840 --> 02:35:43.597 they are already starting companies or 02:35:43.680 --> 02:35:46.637 maybe uh they are just some uh young or 02:35:46.720 --> 02:35:49.757 older person who has these five traits 02:35:49.840 --> 02:35:52.237 in abundance or doesn't but knows 02:35:52.320 --> 02:35:54.237 somebody who does and is partnering with 02:35:54.320 --> 02:35:58.397 them in some sort of idea. Um, and you 02:35:58.480 --> 02:36:02.077 have an amazing track record at identifying these people. Um, I think in 02:36:02.160 --> 02:36:05.917 part because you have those same traits yourself. 02:36:06.000 --> 02:36:10.717 I've heard you say the following. Uh, the world is a very malleable place. If 02:36:10.800 --> 02:36:14.397 you know what you want and you go for it with maximum energy and drive and 02:36:14.480 --> 02:36:18.157 passion, the world will often reconfigure itself around you much more 02:36:18.240 --> 02:36:20.797 quickly and easily than you would think. 02:36:20.880 --> 02:36:23.117 That's a remarkable quote um because it 02:36:23.200 --> 02:36:26.477 says at least two things uh to me. One 02:36:26.560 --> 02:36:31.117 is that um you have a very clear understanding of the inner workings of 02:36:31.200 --> 02:36:33.437 these great innovators. We talked a 02:36:33.520 --> 02:36:35.597 little bit about that earlier, these 02:36:35.680 --> 02:36:38.797 five traits, etc. But that also you have 02:36:38.880 --> 02:36:43.037 an intense understanding of the world landscape. And the way that we've been 02:36:43.120 --> 02:36:46.957 talking about it for the last hour or so is that it is a really intense and kind 02:36:47.040 --> 02:36:51.037 of oppressive landscape. You've got countries and organizations and elites 02:36:51.120 --> 02:36:53.917 and uh journalists that you know that 02:36:54.000 --> 02:36:59.117 are trying to not necessarily trying but are suppressing the innovation process. 02:36:59.200 --> 02:37:02.477 I mean that's sort of the the picture that I'm getting. So it's like we're 02:37:02.560 --> 02:37:06.077 trying to innovate inside of a vice that's getting progressively tighter. 02:37:06.160 --> 02:37:09.117 And yet this quote argues that it is the 02:37:09.200 --> 02:37:13.517 the person the boy or girl man or woman 02:37:13.600 --> 02:37:16.237 who says well you know what that all 02:37:16.320 --> 02:37:19.197 might be true but my view of the world 02:37:19.280 --> 02:37:23.437 is the way the world's going to bend or I'm going to create a dent in that vice 02:37:23.520 --> 02:37:27.117 that allows me to exist the way that I want or you know what I'm actually going 02:37:27.200 --> 02:37:29.437 to uncurl the vice the other direction 02:37:29.520 --> 02:37:32.237 and so um I'm at once picking up a sort 02:37:32.320 --> 02:37:36.557 of um pessimistic glass half empty uh 02:37:36.640 --> 02:37:38.317 view of the world as well as a glass 02:37:38.400 --> 02:37:43.757 half full view. And um so tell me about that and and tell if you would could you 02:37:43.840 --> 02:37:45.277 tell us about that from the perspective 02:37:45.360 --> 02:37:47.197 of someone listening who is thinking, 02:37:47.280 --> 02:37:51.037 you know, I've got an idea and I know 02:37:51.120 --> 02:37:53.437 it's a really good one cuz I just know. 02:37:53.520 --> 02:37:57.437 I might not have the confidence of extrinsic reward yet, but I just know 02:37:57.520 --> 02:37:59.757 there's a seed of something. Um what 02:37:59.840 --> 02:38:02.637 does it take to foster that? and um how 02:38:02.720 --> 02:38:06.797 do we foster real innovation in the landscape that we're talking about? 02:38:06.880 --> 02:38:09.917 >> Yeah. So part is I think you just I think one of the ways to square it is I 02:38:10.000 --> 02:38:13.277 think you you as the innovator need to be signed up to fight the fight, right? 02:38:13.360 --> 02:38:16.317 So and and again this is where like the fictional portrayals of startups I think 02:38:16.400 --> 02:38:19.117 take people off course or even scientists or whatever because they the 02:38:19.200 --> 02:38:22.877 when when there's great success stories they get kind of pritified uh after the 02:38:22.960 --> 02:38:26.157 fact um and they made they get made to be like cute and fun and it's like yeah 02:38:26.240 --> 02:38:28.877 no like if you talk to anybody who actually did any of these things like no 02:38:28.960 --> 02:38:31.837 there was it was just like these things are always just like brutal exercises 02:38:31.920 --> 02:38:34.797 and just like sheer willpower and fighting you know fighting fighting 02:38:34.880 --> 02:38:38.317 forces that are trying to get you. So, um, so, so part of it is you just, you 02:38:38.400 --> 02:38:40.557 have to be signed up for the fight. And this kind of goes to the 02:38:40.640 --> 02:38:44.477 conscientiousness thing we're talking about. We also, my partner Ben uses the 02:38:44.560 --> 02:38:48.157 term courage a lot, right? Which is some combination of like just stubbornness, 02:38:48.240 --> 02:38:51.437 but coupled with like a willingness to take pain 02:38:51.520 --> 02:38:53.917 >> um, and not stop um, and, you know, have 02:38:54.000 --> 02:38:56.877 people think very bad things of you for a long time uh, until it turns out, you 02:38:56.960 --> 02:39:00.157 know, you hopefully prove yourself prove yourself correct. Um, and so you have to 02:39:00.240 --> 02:39:03.357 be willing to do that. Like it's it's a these are it's a contact sport. Like 02:39:03.440 --> 02:39:04.797 it's these aren't easy roads, right? 02:39:04.880 --> 02:39:08.397 It's a contact sport. So, you have to be signed up uh for the fight. The 02:39:08.480 --> 02:39:11.117 advantage that you have as an innovator 02:39:11.200 --> 02:39:16.077 um is is that at the end of the day, the truth actually matters. Um and all the 02:39:16.160 --> 02:39:19.597 arguments in the world, the classic Victor Hugo quote is there's nothing 02:39:19.680 --> 02:39:23.517 more powerful in the world than an idea whose time has come, right? Like 02:39:23.600 --> 02:39:27.997 >> if if it's real, right? And and this is so just pure substance. If the thing is 02:39:28.080 --> 02:39:31.997 real, if the idea is real, like if it's a legitimately good scientific 02:39:32.080 --> 02:39:36.317 discovery, you know, about how nature works, if it's a new invention, um if 02:39:36.400 --> 02:39:40.717 it's a new work of art, and if it's real, you know, then you you you do at 02:39:40.800 --> 02:39:44.157 the end of the day, you have that on your side. Um and all of the people who 02:39:44.240 --> 02:39:47.037 are fighting you and arguing with you and telling you no, they don't have that 02:39:47.120 --> 02:39:50.477 on their side, right? It's not like they're showing up with some other thing 02:39:50.560 --> 02:39:52.957 and they're like, "My thing is better than your thing." Like, that's not the 02:39:53.040 --> 02:39:57.037 main problem, right? The main problem is like, "I have a thing. I'm convinced. 02:39:57.120 --> 02:39:59.757 Everybody else is telling me it's stupid, wrong, it should be illegal, 02:39:59.840 --> 02:40:03.437 whatever the thing is, but at the end of the day, I still have the thing, right? 02:40:03.520 --> 02:40:06.477 And so, so, so at the end of the day, like, yeah, the the truth really 02:40:06.560 --> 02:40:09.757 matters. The substance really matters if it's real. It's really, I give you an 02:40:09.840 --> 02:40:13.757 example. It's really hard historically to find an example of a new technology 02:40:13.840 --> 02:40:16.797 that came into the world that was then pulled back. 02:40:16.880 --> 02:40:19.757 >> And, you know, and we could, you know, nuclear is maybe maybe an example of 02:40:19.840 --> 02:40:22.077 that, but even still, there are still, you know, nuclear there are still 02:40:22.160 --> 02:40:25.997 nuclear plants like running today. Um, you know, that that that still exists. 02:40:26.080 --> 02:40:29.437 Um, you know, I would say the same thing as scientific like at least I may as you 02:40:29.520 --> 02:40:31.837 don't know I don't know of any scientific discovery that was made and 02:40:31.920 --> 02:40:35.437 then people like I I know I know there are areas of science that are not 02:40:35.520 --> 02:40:40.637 politically correct to talk about today but every scientist knows the truth like 02:40:40.720 --> 02:40:43.837 the truth is still the truth. I mean even the geneticists in the Soviet Union 02:40:43.920 --> 02:40:46.557 who were forced to buy into lenoism like knew the whole time that it was wrong. 02:40:46.640 --> 02:40:48.717 Like that I'm completely convinced of. 02:40:48.800 --> 02:40:52.157 >> Yeah. They couldn't delude themselves especially because the basic training 02:40:52.240 --> 02:40:55.757 that one gets in any field establishes some core truths upon which even the 02:40:55.840 --> 02:41:00.157 crazy ideas have to rest and if they don't as you pointed out um things fall 02:41:00.240 --> 02:41:01.597 to pieces. I would say that even the 02:41:01.680 --> 02:41:04.637 technologies that um did not pan out and 02:41:04.720 --> 02:41:07.757 in some cases were disastrous but that 02:41:07.840 --> 02:41:12.637 were great ideas at the beginning are starting to pan 02:41:12.720 --> 02:41:16.077 out. So the example I'll give is that most people are aware of the Elizabeth 02:41:16.160 --> 02:41:19.117 Holmes therronos debacle [clears throat] 02:41:19.200 --> 02:41:22.077 to put it lightly you know analyzing uh 02:41:22.160 --> 02:41:26.157 what's in a single drop of blood as a way to analyze hormones and disease and 02:41:26.240 --> 02:41:29.437 antibodies etc. I mean that's a great idea. 02:41:29.520 --> 02:41:33.117 >> I mean it's a terrific idea as opposed to having a flammus come to your house 02:41:33.200 --> 02:41:35.757 or you have to go in and you get tapped with a you know and they're pulling 02:41:35.840 --> 02:41:38.557 vials and the whole thing. there's now a 02:41:38.640 --> 02:41:41.517 company um born out of Stanford that is 02:41:41.600 --> 02:41:44.637 doing exactly what she sought to do 02:41:44.720 --> 02:41:48.557 except that at least the courts ruled that um she fudged the thing and is 02:41:48.640 --> 02:41:50.637 that's why she's in jail right now. Um 02:41:50.720 --> 02:41:54.397 but the idea of getting a wide array of 02:41:54.480 --> 02:41:59.117 markers from a single drop of blood is an absolutely spectacular idea. The 02:41:59.200 --> 02:42:01.997 biggest challenge that company is going to confront is the idea that it's just 02:42:02.080 --> 02:42:06.317 the next Theronos. But if they've got the thing >> and they're not fudging it as it 02:42:06.400 --> 02:42:08.557 apparently Theronos was, 02:42:08.640 --> 02:42:12.317 >> um I think um everything will work out. 02:42:12.400 --> 02:42:14.317 Allah Victor Hugo. >> Yeah. Exactly. 02:42:14.400 --> 02:42:15.997 >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Because who wants to go back? Like 02:42:16.080 --> 02:42:19.597 when if they if they if they get to the work if it's real, 02:42:19.680 --> 02:42:21.437 >> it's going to be like this is the thing. 02:42:21.520 --> 02:42:26.157 The the opponents the opponents, they're not bringing their own ideas. [laughter] 02:42:26.240 --> 02:42:28.717 Like they're not bringing their oh my idea is better than yours. Like that's 02:42:28.800 --> 02:42:33.997 not what's happening. They're bringing the silence or counterargument, right, 02:42:34.080 --> 02:42:37.677 or name calling. >> Well, this is why I think um people who 02:42:37.760 --> 02:42:40.877 need to be loved probably stand a um 02:42:40.960 --> 02:42:44.877 reduced chance of success. >> Um and maybe that's also why having 02:42:44.960 --> 02:42:48.637 people close to you that do love you and allowing that to be sufficient 02:42:48.720 --> 02:42:52.157 >> can be very beneficial. This gets back to the idea of partnership and family 02:42:52.240 --> 02:42:57.037 around innovators. Um because if you feel filled up by those people local to 02:42:57.120 --> 02:43:00.157 you, >> Yep. you know, in your home, then you 02:43:00.240 --> 02:43:03.437 don't need people on the internet saying nice things about you or your ideas 02:43:03.520 --> 02:43:08.397 because you're good and you can forge forward. Um, another question about 02:43:08.480 --> 02:43:11.517 innovation is the teams that you assemble around you. And you've talked 02:43:11.600 --> 02:43:13.757 before about um the sort of small 02:43:13.840 --> 02:43:19.037 squadron model um you know sort of David and Goliath uh examples as well where 02:43:19.120 --> 02:43:20.637 you know a small group of individuals 02:43:20.720 --> 02:43:23.837 can um create a technology that frankly 02:43:23.920 --> 02:43:26.477 outdoes what a you know a giant like 02:43:26.560 --> 02:43:31.517 Facebook might be doing or what um any other large company might be doing. 02:43:31.600 --> 02:43:34.957 There are a lot of theories as to why that would happen, but I know you have 02:43:35.040 --> 02:43:37.837 some unique theories. Um why do you 02:43:37.920 --> 02:43:41.997 think small groups can defeat large organizations? 02:43:42.080 --> 02:43:46.157 >> So the conventional explanation is I think correct and it's just that um 02:43:46.240 --> 02:43:48.957 large organizations have a lot of advantages but they just have a very 02:43:49.040 --> 02:43:52.237 hard time um actually executing anything 02:43:52.320 --> 02:43:56.797 because of all the overhead. So large organizations have combinatorial 02:43:56.880 --> 02:43:59.197 communication overhead, right? The the number of people who have to be 02:43:59.280 --> 02:44:02.237 consulted, who have to agree on things gets to be staggering. The amount of 02:44:02.320 --> 02:44:05.837 time it takes to schedule the meeting gets to be staggering. You know, you get 02:44:05.920 --> 02:44:08.477 these really big companies and they have some issue they're dealing with. And it 02:44:08.560 --> 02:44:11.677 takes like a month to schedule the premeating to like plan for the meeting, 02:44:11.760 --> 02:44:13.997 which is going to happen two months later, which is then going to result in 02:44:14.080 --> 02:44:17.357 a post meeting, which will then result in a board presentation, which will then 02:44:17.440 --> 02:44:19.357 result in a planning offsite. Right. So they're 02:44:19.440 --> 02:44:21.997 >> I thought I thought academia was bad, but what you're describing is giving me 02:44:22.080 --> 02:44:25.757 hives. Kafkovka was Kafka was a documentary. Yeah. Like this is this is 02:44:25.840 --> 02:44:28.477 Yeah. So it it's just like these these are I mean look you'd have these 02:44:28.560 --> 02:44:31.517 organizations at 100,000 people or more like you're you're more of a nation 02:44:31.600 --> 02:44:35.197 state than a than a than a than a company. Um and you've got all these 02:44:35.280 --> 02:44:37.597 competing internal you know it's the Bedwin thing I was saying before. You've 02:44:37.680 --> 02:44:40.717 got all these internal like at most big companies your internal enemies are like 02:44:40.800 --> 02:44:43.437 way more dangerous to you than anybody on the outside. 02:44:43.520 --> 02:44:45.837 >> Can you elaborate on that? >> Oh yeah. Yeah. your big compet the big 02:44:45.920 --> 02:44:48.317 compet at a big company the big competition is for the for the next 02:44:48.400 --> 02:44:51.517 promotion right and and and the enemy for the next promotion is the next 02:44:51.600 --> 02:44:56.157 executive over in your company like that's your enemy the other the 02:44:56.240 --> 02:44:58.717 competitor on the outside is like an abstraction like maybe they'll matter 02:44:58.800 --> 02:45:02.877 someday whatever I got to beat that guy inside my own company right um and so 02:45:02.960 --> 02:45:06.717 the internal warfare is at least as intense as the external warfare um and 02:45:06.800 --> 02:45:09.837 so yeah so it's just I mean this is just all the you know this iron law of all 02:45:09.920 --> 02:45:13.357 these big big bureaucracies and how they function so if if a bureaucracy ever 02:45:13.440 --> 02:45:15.997 does anything productive I think It's like a miracle. Like it's like a miracle 02:45:16.080 --> 02:45:18.797 to the point where there should be like a celebration. 02:45:18.880 --> 02:45:21.277 There should be parties. There should be like ticker tape parades for like big 02:45:21.360 --> 02:45:24.637 large organizations that actually do things like that. That's great because 02:45:24.720 --> 02:45:28.877 it's like so it's so rare. It doesn't happen very often. So anyway, so that's 02:45:28.960 --> 02:45:32.157 the conventional explanation. Whereas look, small companies, small teams, you 02:45:32.240 --> 02:45:34.317 know, there's a lot that they can't do because they can't you they're not 02:45:34.400 --> 02:45:37.037 operating at scale and they don't have global coverage and you know, all these 02:45:37.120 --> 02:45:39.677 kind of, you know, they don't have the resources and so forth. But at least 02:45:39.760 --> 02:45:43.437 they can move quickly, right? Um they can organize fast. they can have a, you 02:45:43.520 --> 02:45:45.757 know, if there's an issue today, they can have a meeting today. They can solve 02:45:45.840 --> 02:45:48.797 the issue today, right? And everybody they need to solve the issue is in the 02:45:48.880 --> 02:45:52.317 room today, right? So, they can just move a lot faster. Um, I think that's 02:45:52.400 --> 02:45:55.197 part of it, but I think there's another deeper thing underneath that that people 02:45:55.280 --> 02:45:57.997 really don't like to talk about that takes us back full circle to where we 02:45:58.080 --> 02:46:01.037 started, which is just the sheer number of people in the world who are capable 02:46:01.120 --> 02:46:05.677 of doing new things is just a very small set of people. Um, and so you're not 02:46:05.760 --> 02:46:08.797 going to have a hundred of them in a company or a thousand or 10,000. You're 02:46:08.880 --> 02:46:13.437 going to have three, [laughter] eight or 10 maybe. 02:46:13.520 --> 02:46:15.437 >> And some of them are flying too close to the sun. 02:46:15.520 --> 02:46:18.957 >> Some of them are blowing themselves up, right? Some of them are. So IBM, I 02:46:19.040 --> 02:46:21.917 actually first learned this at so my first actual job job was at IBM when it 02:46:22.000 --> 02:46:25.117 was and when when IBM was still on top of the world right before it caved in in 02:46:25.200 --> 02:46:26.797 the early 90s and so when I was there it 02:46:26.880 --> 02:46:32.317 was 440,000 employees which and again if you inflation adjust like today for that 02:46:32.400 --> 02:46:35.037 same size of business inflation adjusted, market size adjusted it would 02:46:35.120 --> 02:46:37.757 be it's equivalent today of like a two or three million person organization. It 02:46:37.840 --> 02:46:41.757 was like a It was a nation state. Uh there were 6,000 people in my division, 02:46:41.840 --> 02:46:44.237 you know, and we were next door to another building that had another 6,000 02:46:44.320 --> 02:46:47.197 people in another division. So, you just you could work there for years and never 02:46:47.280 --> 02:46:49.117 meet anybody who didn't work for IBM. 02:46:49.200 --> 02:46:52.237 The first half of every meeting was just IBM introducing themselves to each 02:46:52.320 --> 02:46:54.397 other. Like it it was just mindboggling 02:46:54.480 --> 02:46:56.397 in the level of of complexity. But they 02:46:56.480 --> 02:47:01.437 were so powerful um that they had uh at at four years before I got there in 02:47:01.520 --> 02:47:04.557 1985, they were 80% of the market capitalization of the entire tech 02:47:04.640 --> 02:47:08.077 industry. Right? So, so they were at a level of dominance that even, you know, 02:47:08.160 --> 02:47:11.917 Google or Apple today is not even close to right at the time. So, that's how 02:47:12.000 --> 02:47:15.117 powerful they were. And so, they had a system and it worked really well for 02:47:15.200 --> 02:47:18.717 like 50 years. They had a system which was most of the employees in the company 02:47:18.800 --> 02:47:22.397 were expected to basically rig follow rules. So, they dressed the same, they 02:47:22.480 --> 02:47:24.717 acted the same, they did everything out of the playbook, you know, they they 02:47:24.800 --> 02:47:28.157 were trained very specifically. Um, but they had this category of people they 02:47:28.240 --> 02:47:32.077 called wild ducks. Um, and this was an idea that the founder Thomas Watson come 02:47:32.160 --> 02:47:36.557 up with, wild ducks. And the wild ducks were they often had the formal title of 02:47:36.640 --> 02:47:38.877 an IBM fellow and they were the people 02:47:38.960 --> 02:47:41.677 who could make new things and there were 02:47:41.760 --> 02:47:46.397 eight of them and they got to break all the rules and they got to invent new 02:47:46.480 --> 02:47:48.717 products. They got to go off and work on something new. They didn't have to 02:47:48.800 --> 02:47:52.877 report back. Um they got to pull people off of other projects to work with them. 02:47:52.960 --> 02:47:55.997 Um they got, you know, budget when they needed it. They they reported directly 02:47:56.080 --> 02:47:58.717 to the CEO. They got whatever they needed. He supported them in doing it. 02:47:58.800 --> 02:48:02.317 and they were glass breakers and you know they showed the the one in Austin 02:48:02.400 --> 02:48:05.117 at the time was this guy Andy Heler and he would show up in you know jeans and 02:48:05.200 --> 02:48:09.517 cowboy boots and you know amongst an ocean of men in you know blue suits, 02:48:09.600 --> 02:48:13.597 white shirts, red ties um and put his cowboy boots up on the table [snorts] 02:48:13.680 --> 02:48:16.477 and it was fine for Andy Holiday to do that and it was not fine for you to do 02:48:16.560 --> 02:48:20.317 that right and so they very specifically identified we have an we have an we have 02:48:20.400 --> 02:48:24.797 like a like almost like an aristocratic class within our our company that gets 02:48:24.880 --> 02:48:28.157 to play by different rules. Now the expectation is they deliver right they 02:48:28.240 --> 02:48:31.757 they their job is to invent the next breakthrough product but we IBM 02:48:31.840 --> 02:48:35.037 management know that the 6,000 person division is not going to invent the next 02:48:35.120 --> 02:48:38.237 product. we know it's gonna be a crazy Andy Heler in his um in his cowboy 02:48:38.320 --> 02:48:42.157 boots. And so I I was always like very impressed like and again like ultimately 02:48:42.240 --> 02:48:45.997 IBM had its issues but like that model worked for 50 years right like worked 02:48:46.080 --> 02:48:49.917 incredibly well and I I think that's basically the model that works. Um and 02:48:50.000 --> 02:48:53.437 so but it's a paradox right which is like how do you have a large 02:48:53.520 --> 02:48:57.357 bureaucratic regimented organization whether it's academia or government or 02:48:57.440 --> 02:49:00.637 business or anything that has all these rule followers in it and all these 02:49:00.720 --> 02:49:04.237 people who are jealous of their status and don't want things to change but then 02:49:04.320 --> 02:49:09.117 still have that spark of of of creativity. I would say mostly it's 02:49:09.200 --> 02:49:12.797 impossible [laughter] like mostly it just doesn't happen. Those people get 02:49:12.880 --> 02:49:15.917 driven out right and and in tech what happens is those people get driven out 02:49:16.000 --> 02:49:18.557 because we will fund them. >> These are the people we fund. Right. I 02:49:18.640 --> 02:49:22.637 was going to say I I gather that you are in the business of finding and funding 02:49:22.720 --> 02:49:24.397 the wild ducks. >> The wild ducks. That's exactly right. 02:49:24.480 --> 02:49:27.357 And and actually this is actually to close the close the loop. This is 02:49:27.440 --> 02:49:30.077 actually I think the simplest explanation for why IBM ultimately caved 02:49:30.160 --> 02:49:34.237 in and then HP sort of in the 80s also c you know these IBM and HP kind of were 02:49:34.320 --> 02:49:37.677 monol they were these incredible monolithic incredible companies for 40 02:49:37.760 --> 02:49:41.277 or 50 years and then they kind of both caved in in the 80s and 90s and and I 02:49:41.360 --> 02:49:44.237 actually think it was the emergence of venture capital. It was the emergence of 02:49:44.320 --> 02:49:47.997 a parallel funding system where the wild ducks or in HP's case their their 02:49:48.080 --> 02:49:50.397 superstar technical people could actually leave and start their own 02:49:50.480 --> 02:49:53.517 companies. And again, it goes back to the university discussion we're having 02:49:53.600 --> 02:49:56.397 is like this is what doesn't exist at the university level. 02:49:56.480 --> 02:49:58.557 >> This certainly does not exist at the government level. 02:49:58.640 --> 02:50:02.157 >> And until recently in media, it didn't exist until there's this thing that we 02:50:02.240 --> 02:50:04.957 call podcast. >> Exactly. Right. Exactly. Right. 02:50:05.040 --> 02:50:08.717 >> Which clearly have picked up some um some momentum. And I I would hope that 02:50:08.800 --> 02:50:13.037 these other wild duck models will um will uh move quickly. 02:50:13.120 --> 02:50:14.237 >> Yeah. But the one thing you know, right, 02:50:14.320 --> 02:50:16.477 and you know this, like the one thing you know is the people on the other side 02:50:16.560 --> 02:50:20.397 are going to be mad as hell. >> Yeah. They're going to Well, I think um 02:50:20.480 --> 02:50:24.877 they're past denial. Um the counterarguments continue. Um the name 02:50:24.960 --> 02:50:25.837 calling is prolific. 02:50:25.920 --> 02:50:28.157 >> Name calling is fully underway. Yeah. 02:50:28.240 --> 02:50:32.077 >> Yes. Well, Mark, we've covered a lot of 02:50:32.160 --> 02:50:35.517 topics, but as with every time I talk to 02:50:35.600 --> 02:50:38.637 you, I learn oh so very much. So, I'm so 02:50:38.720 --> 02:50:42.557 grateful for you taking the time out of your schedule to talk about all of these 02:50:42.640 --> 02:50:46.637 topics in depth with us. You know, I'd be remiss if I didn't say that it is 02:50:46.720 --> 02:50:49.037 clear to me now that you are hyper 02:50:49.120 --> 02:50:52.157 realistic about the landscape, 02:50:52.240 --> 02:50:56.237 >> uh, but you are also intensely optimistic about the existence of wild 02:50:56.320 --> 02:50:58.797 ducks. >> Yes. and those around them that support 02:50:58.880 --> 02:51:01.837 them and that are necessary for the implementation of their ideas at some 02:51:01.920 --> 02:51:05.277 point >> and that also you have um a real rebel 02:51:05.360 --> 02:51:08.477 inside you. So that is oh so welcome on 02:51:08.560 --> 02:51:11.597 this podcast and it's um oh so needed in 02:51:11.680 --> 02:51:16.477 uh these times and every time. So on behalf of myself and the rest of us here 02:51:16.560 --> 02:51:19.677 at the podcast and especially the listeners, thank you so much. 02:51:19.760 --> 02:51:22.477 >> Thanks for having me. >> Thank you for joining me for today's 02:51:22.560 --> 02:51:26.397 discussion with Mark Andrees. If you're learning from andor enjoying this 02:51:26.480 --> 02:51:30.397 podcast, please subscribe to our YouTube channel. That's a terrific zerocost way 02:51:30.480 --> 02:51:34.477 to support us. In addition, please subscribe to the podcast on both Spotify 02:51:34.560 --> 02:51:37.597 and Apple. And on both Spotify and Apple, you can leave us up to a 02:51:37.680 --> 02:51:41.357 five-star review. If you have questions for me or comments about the podcast or 02:51:41.440 --> 02:51:44.877 guests that you'd like me to consider hosting on the Huberman Lab podcast, 02:51:44.960 --> 02:51:49.037 please put those in the comment section on YouTube. 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