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Welcome to the Huberman Lab
podcast where we discuss science and

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science-based tools
[music] for everyday life.

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I'm Andrew Huberman and I'm a professor
of neurobiology and opthalmology at

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Stamford School of Medicine. Today my

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guest is Mark Andre. Mark Andre is a

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software engineer and an investor
in technology companies. He co-founded and

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developed Mosaic which was one of the

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first widely used web browsers. He also

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co-founded and developed Netscape, which

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was one of the earliest widespread used

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web browsers. And he co-founded and is a
general partner at Andre Horwitz, one of

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the most successful Silicon Valley
venture capital firms. All of that is to

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say that Mark Andre is one of the most
successful innovators and investors

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ever. I was extremely excited to record
this episode with Mark for several

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reasons. First of all, he himself is an
incredible innovator. Second of all, he

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has an uncanny ability to spot
the innovators of the future. And third,

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Mark has shown over and over again
the ability to understand how technologies

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not yet even developed are going
to impact the way that humans interact at

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large. Our conversation starts off by
discussing what makes for an exceptional

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innovator as well as what sorts
of environmental conditions make for

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exceptional innovation and creativity
more generally. In that context, we talk

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about risk-taking. Not just in terms
of risk-taking in one's profession, but

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about how some people, not all, but how
some people who are risk-takers and

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innovators in the context of their work
also seem to take a lot of risks in

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their personal life and some of the
consequences that can bring. Then we

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discuss some of the most transformative
technologies that are now emerging such

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as novel approaches to developing clean

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energy as well as AI or artificial

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intelligence. With respect to AI, Mark

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shares his views as to why AI is likely

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to greatly improve human experience. And
we discuss the multiple roles that AI is

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very likely to have in all of our lives
in the near future. Mark explains how

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not too long from now, all of us are

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very likely to have AI assistance. For

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instance, assistants that give us highly
informed health advice, highly informed

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psychological advice. Indeed, it is very
likely that all of us will soon have AI

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assistants that govern most if not
all of our daily decisions. And Mark

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explains how if done correctly, this can

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be a tremendously positive addition
to our life. In doing so, Mark provides a

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stark counterargument for those that

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argue that AI is going to diminish human
experience. So, if you're hearing about

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and or concerned about the ways that AI
is likely to destroy us, today you are

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going to hear about the many different
ways that AI technologies now in

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development are likely to enhance
our human experience at every level. What

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you'll soon find is that while today's
discussion does center around technology

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and technology development, it is really
a discussion about human beings and

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human psychology. So whether you have
an interest in technology development

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and/or AI, I'm certain that you'll find
today's discussion to be an important

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and highly lucid view into what will
soon be the future that we all live in.

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Before we begin, I'd like to emphasize
that this podcast is separate from my

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teaching and research roles at Stanford.

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It is however part of my desire
and effort to bring zerocost to consumer

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information about science and science
related tools to the general public. In

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keeping with that theme, I'd like
to thank the sponsors of today's podcast.

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And now for my discussion
with Mark Andre. Mark, welcome.

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>> Hey, thank you. >> Delighted
to have you here and have so

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many questions for you about innovation,

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AI, your view of the landscape of tech

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and humanity in general. I want to start

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off by talking about innovation from

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three different perspectives.
There's the inner game, so to speak, or

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the psychology of the innovator or

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innovators. things like their propensity

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for engaging in conflict or not, their

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propensity for having a dream or a

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vision, and in particular their

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innovation as it relates
to some psychological

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trait or expression. So, we'll get
to that in a moment. The second component

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that I'm curious about is the outer
landscape around innovators who they

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place them themselves with uh the sorts
of choices that they make and also the

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sorts of personal relationships that
they might have or not have. And then

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the last component is this notion of
the larger landscape that they happen to

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find themselves in. What time in

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history? Uh what's the geography? Bay

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Area, New York, Dubai, etc.

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>> Sure. So to start off,
is there a common

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trait of innovators that you think is

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absolutely essential as a seed uh
to creating things that are really

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impactful? >> Yeah.
So I'm not a psychologist, but

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I've picked up some of the concepts uh
some of the uh some of the terms and so

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I've it was a great moment of delight
in my life when I learned about the big

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five personality traits because I
was like, "Aha, there's a way to actually

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describe the answer to this question
in at least reasonably scientific terms."

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Um, and so I I think what you're looking
for when you're when you're talking

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about real innovators, like people who
actually do really creative breakthrough

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work, I think you're talking about
a couple things. So, one is very high in

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what's called trade openness, right?

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Which is one of the big one of the big
five. Um, which is basically just like

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flat out open to new ideas. Um, and of
course the the nature of trade openness

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is trade openness means you're not
just open to new ideas in one category.

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You're open to many different kinds of new
ideas. And so we we might talk about

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the fact that a lot of innovators
also are very creative people in other

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aspects of their lives, right? even
outside of uh their their their specific

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creative domain. So that's important.

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But of course, just being open is not
sufficient because if you're just open,

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you could just be curious and explore,
right? And spend your entire life

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reading and and doing, you know, talking
to people and never actually create

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something. So you also need um a couple
other things. You need a high level of

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conscientiousness, which is another one
of the big five. You need somebody who's

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really willing to apply themselves. And
in our world, typically over a period of

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many years, right, to be able to to to
accomplish something, great. You know,

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they they typically work very hard.
um that often gets obscured because the

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stories that end up getting told about
these people are, you know, it's just

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like there's this kid and he just had
this idea and it was like a stroke of

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genius and it was like a moment in time
and you know it's just like oh he was so

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lucky and it's like no like for most
of these people it's years and years and

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years of of applied effort and so you
need you need somebody with like an

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extreme you know basically willingness
to defer gratification and really apply

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themselves to a specific thing for a long
time. Um, and of course this is why

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there aren't very many of these people
is there aren't many people who are high

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in openness and high
in conscientiousness because to a certain

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extent they're they're opposed right
traits. And so you need somebody who has

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both of those. Third is you need
somebody high in disagreeableness which

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is the third of the big five. Um so you
need somebody who's just like basically

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ordinary. Uh right? Because if they're
not ordinary then they'll be talked out

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of their ideas by people who will be
like oh well that you know because the

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reaction most people have no ideas
is oh that's dumb. [snorts] Um, and so

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somebody who's too agreeable will will
be easily dissuaded to to not pursue,

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you know, not pulling the thread anymore.
So you need somebody highly

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disagreeable. Again, the nature
of disagreeableness is they tend to be

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disagreeable disagreeable about
everything, right? So they tend to be

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these very sort of iconoclastic,
you know, kind of renegade characters. Um,

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and then there's just a table stakes
component, which is they just also need

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to be high IQ, right? They just they
just need to be really smart because

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it's just it's hard to innovate in any
category if you can't synthesize large

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amounts of information quickly. Um,
and so those are four like basically like

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high spikes, you know, very rare traits
that basically have to uh have to come

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together. Um, you you could probably
also say they they probably at some

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point need to be relatively low on
neuroticism, which is another of the big

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five because if they're too neurotic,
they probably can't handle the stress,

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right? So So it's kind of this this this
dial in there. And then of course, if

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you're if you're if you're into like
this the sort of science of the big

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five, basically, you know, these are all
people who are on like the far out kind

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of point on the on the normal
distribution across all these traits.

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And and then that just gets you to I
think the the sort of hardest topic of

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all around this this this whole concept
which is just there are very few of

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these people. >> Do you think
they're born with these traits?

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>> Yeah. Well, so the they're born with
the traits and then and then of course the

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traits are not, you know, genetics are
not destiny. And so that the the traits

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are not deterministic in the sense
of that, you know, just because they have

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those personality traits doesn't mean
they're they're going to, you know,

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deliver great creativity. But like they
need to have those properties because

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otherwise they're just not either going
to be able to do the work or they're not

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going to enjoy it, right? I mean,
look, a lot of these people are highly

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capable, competent people. You know,
it's very easy for them to get like

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high-paying jobs in traditional
institutions and, you know, get lots of,

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you know, traditional awards and, you
know, end up with big paychecks and, you

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know, there there's a lot of people at,
you know, big institutions that we we

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know you and I know well and I I deal
with many of these where people get paid

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a lot of money and they get a lot
of respect and they go for 20 years and

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it's great and they never create any
[laughter] anything new, right? And so

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there's there's a lot of >>
administrators. Well, a lot of them

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Yeah. a lot of lot of them end up
in administrative jobs. Um, and that's

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fine. That's good. The world needs, you
know, the world needs that also, right?

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The the the innovators can't run
everything because everything, you know,

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the the rate of change would be too high.
Society, I think, probably

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wouldn't be able to handle it. So,
you need some people who are on the other

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side who are going to kind of keep
the lights on and keep things running. Um,

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but but there is this decision that
people have to make, which is, okay, if

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I have the sort of latent capability to do
this, is this actually what I want to

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spend my life doing? And do I want to go
through the stress and the pain and the

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trauma, right, and the anxiety, right,
and the risk of failure, right? Right.

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And so do do I really want to once in
a while you run into somebody who's just

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like can't do it any other way.
Like they they just have to.

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>> Who's an example of that?
>> I mean Elon Elon's the you know the

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paramount example of our time. And he
and I I bring him up in part because

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he's such an obvious example but in part
because he's talked about this um in in

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in in interviews where he he basically
says like he's like I can't turn it off.

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Like the ideas come I have to pursue them,
right? It's why he's like running

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five companies at the same time and like
working on a sixth, right? Um uh is just

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like he can't he can't turn it off,
you know? Look, there's a lot of other

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people who are probably had the capability
to do it who ended up talking

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themselves into or you know,
whatever events conspired to put them in a

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position where they did something else.

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Um, you know, obviously there are people
who try to be creative who just don't

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have the the capability. And so there
there's some ven diagram there of

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determinism through traits, but also
choices in life. And then also, of

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course, the situation in which they're
born, the context within which they grow

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up, the culture, right? What their parents
expect of them and and so forth.

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And so you have to, you know, to kind
of get all the way through this, you have

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to thread all these all these
needles kind of at the same time.

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>> Do you think there are folks out
there that meet these criteria who are

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disagreeable but that can feain
agreeableness? You know, that can

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[laughter] >> for those
just listening, Mark just

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raised his right hand. Um um in other

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words that they can sort of um phrase
that comes to mind maybe because I can

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relate to a little bit. they um sneak up
through the system, meaning they behave

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ethically as it relates to the
requirements of the system. They're not

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breaking laws or breaking rules. In fact,
quite the opposite. They're paying

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attention to the rules and following
the rules until they get to a place where

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being disagreeable feels less
threatening to their overall sense of

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security. >> Yeah. I mean,
look, the really highly

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competent people don't have to break
laws, right? Like it's it's the there

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was this there was this there was this
myth, you know, that sort of happened

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around the movie The Godfather. And then
there was this character My Lansky, you

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know, who's like ran basically the mafia,
you know, 50, 60, 70 years ago.

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And there was this there's this great
line of like, well, my Lansky had only

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like applied himself to running General
Motors, he would have been the best CEO

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of all time. It's like, no, not really,
right? Like the the people who are like

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great at running big companies, they
don't have to they don't have to be mob

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bosses. They don't have to like break
laws. They can, you know, they can they

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can do they can work they're they're
smart and sophisticated enough to be

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able to work inside the system.
you know, they don't need to take the easy

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out. So, I I don't think there's any
implication that they have to, you know,

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that they have to they have to break laws.
That said, they have to break

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norms, right? And and and specifically
the the thing this is probably the thing

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that gets missed the most because
the process of the process of innovating,

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the process of creating something new,
like once it works, like the stories get

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retconed, um, as they say, um, in comic
books. So, the stories get adapted to

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where it's like it was inevitable all
along. You know, everybody always knew

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that this was a good idea. You know, the
person has won all these awards. Society

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embraced them. And it's if if invariably
if you if you were with them when that

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was when they were actually doing
the work or if you actually get a couple

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drinks into them and talk to them about
it, it'll be like no that's not how it

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happened at all. They faced a wall of
skepticism just like a wall of basically

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social, you know, essentially denial.

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No, this is not going to work. No, I'm
not going to join your lab. No, I'm not

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going to come work for your company.
No, I'm not going to buy your product,

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right? No, I'm not going to meet with you.
And so they they they they get just

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like tremendous social resistance.

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they're they're they're not getting
positive feedback from their from from

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their social network the way that more
agreeable people need to have. Right?

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And this is why this is why
agreeableness is a problem for

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innovation. If if you're agreeable,
you're going to listen to the people

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around you. They're going to tell you
that new ideas are stupid, right? End of

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story. You're you're not going to proceed.
Um and so I I would put it more

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on like they need to be able to deal
with they need to be able to deal with

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social discomfort to the level
of ostracism. Um or at some point they're

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going to get shaken out and they're just
going to quit. Do you think that people

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that meet these criteria do best by

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banding with others that meet these

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criteria early or is it important that

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they form this deep sense of self like

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the ability to cry oneself to sleep
at night or you know lie in the fetal

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position worrying that things aren't
going to work out and then still get up

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the next morning and get
right back out there.

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>> Right. So Sean Parker has the best line
by the way on on on uh on this. He says,

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uh, you know, being a being
an entrepreneur, being a creator is like,

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uh, you know, getting punched in the face
like over and over again. He said,

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eventually you start to like the taste
of your own blood. And I love that line

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because it makes everybody like
massively uncomfortable, right? But it

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gives you a sense of like how basically
painful the process is. If you talk to

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any entrepreneur, you know, who's been
through it about that, they're like,

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"Oh, yeah, that's exactly that's exactly
what it's like." So, so, so there is

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this there is a big individual component
to it. But look, but look, it can be

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very lonely, right? Um and it'd be
especially you know very hard I think to

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do this if if nobody around you
is trying to do anything even remotely

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similar right and if you're getting just
universally negative responses like I

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you know very few people I think have
very few people have the ego strength to

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be able to survive that for years.
So I do think there's a huge advantage and

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and this is why you you do see clusters.

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There's a huge advantage to clustering,
right? And so you have and and you know

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throughout history you've had this
clustering effect, right? You have, you

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know, clustering of the great artists
and sculptors in Renaissance Florence.

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You know, you had the clustering
of the philosophers of Greece. You had the

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clustering of tech people in Silicon
Valley. You have the clustering of

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creative, you know, arts, movie,
TV people in Los Angeles, right? And so

258
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forth and so on, you know, for,
you know, there's always a scene, right?

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There's there's there's always like
a nexus and a place where where people

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come together, um, you know, for for
these kinds of things. So generally

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speaking, like if somebody wants to work
in tech and innovate in tech, they're

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going to be much better off being around
a lot of people who are trying to do

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that kind of thing than they are
in a place where nobody else is doing it.

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Having said that, the clustering has
it can have downsides. It can have side

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effects and and you put any group
of people together and you do start to get

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group think even among people who are
individually very disagreeable. Um and

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so these same clusters where you get
these very idiosyncratic people, they do

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have fads and trends just like every
place else, right? And so they get they

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get they get wrapped up in their own
social dynamics. And the good news is

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the social dynamic in those places
is usually very forward-looking, right? Um

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and so it's usually it's usually like,
you know, it's I don't know it's like a

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herd of iconoclass looking for the next
big thing, right? So iconoclass looking

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for the next big thing. That's good. The
herd part, right? That's what you got to

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be careful of. So even when you're
in one of these environments, you have to

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be careful that you're not getting
sucked into the group think too much.

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When you say group think, do you mean
excessive friction due to pressure

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testing each other's ideas to the point
where things just don't move forward or

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are you talking about group think where
people start to form a consensus or the

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um self-belief that gosh we are so

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strong because we are so different.
Um what do you can we better define group

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think? >> It's actually less either one of
those things both happen. Those are good.

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Those are good. Uh the part of group
think I'm talking about is just like we

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all we all basically zero in we we just
end up zeroing in on the same ideas,

284
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right? In Hollywood there's this classic
thing. It's like there there are years

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where all of a sudden there's like a lot
of volcano movies. It's like why are

286
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there all these volcano movies and it's
just like I don't there was just

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something in the just right there was
just something in the air you know look

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tech Silicon Valley has this you know
there there are moments in time where

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you you'll have these it's like the old
thing like what's the difference between

290
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,317
a fad and a trend right? you know
the fed fed is the trend that doesn't last

291
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,157
right um and so you know Silicon Valley
is subject to fads and both fads and

292
00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,997
trends just like any place else right
in other words you take smart disagreeable

293
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,197
people you cluster them together they
will act like a herd right they they

294
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will end up thinking the same things
unless they try very hard not to

295
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:08,877
>> you've talked about these personality

296
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traits of great innovators before um and

297
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,037
we're talking about them now you invest

298
00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:19,437
in innovators you try and identify them
and you are one so you can recognize

299
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,317
these traits Here I'm making the
presumption that you have these traits.

300
00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,797
Indeed you do. Um we'll just get that

301
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,197
out of the way. Um

302
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have you observed people trying to feain

303
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,637
these traits? Um and are there any

304
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,757
specific questions or um behaviors that

305
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,277
are a giveaway? Um that they're

306
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pretending to be the young Steve Jobs or

307
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:43,677
that they're pretending to be the the

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00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,557
young Henry Ford. um pick your list of

309
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:51,597
other other names that qualify as uh
authentic legitimate innovators. Um we

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00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,717
won't name names of people who have
tried to disguise themselves as true

311
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innovators, but what are some of the um

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00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,917
uh the the litmus tests and uh I realize
here that um we don't want you to give

313
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,037
these away to the point where they're
uh lose their potency. But if you could

314
00:17:05,120 --> 00:17:09,517
share a few of those good we're actually
pretty open book on this. So um so yeah,

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00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,477
so so first of all, yes. So there are
people who definitely try to like come

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00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,797
in and basically present as being
something that they're not and they've

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00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:16,717
you know like they've read all
the books they will have listened to this

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00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,277
interview right they they will they you
know they study everything and they they

319
00:17:19,360 --> 00:17:22,797
construct a facade um and they come
in and present as something they're not I

320
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:27,277
would say the amount of that varies
exactly correlated to the NASDAQ um

321
00:17:27,360 --> 00:17:30,797
[laughter] right and so
when stock prices are super

322
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,677
low like you actually get the opposite
when stock prices are super low people

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get too demoralized and people who
should be doing it basically give up

324
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,797
because they just think that whatever
whatever the industry is over the trend

325
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,757
is over whatever it's all hopeless um
and So you get this flushing thing. So

326
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,797
nobody ever shows up at a stock market
low, right? And says like, "I'm the new

327
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,237
I'm the new I'm the new next big thing."

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Um uh and and and does and and doesn't
really want to do it because because

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there are higher status the kinds
of people who do the thing that you're

330
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,597
talking about, they're they're
fundamentally oriented for social

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status. They're they're trying they're
they're trying to get the social status

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00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,277
without actually without actually
the substance. And there are always other

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00:18:01,360 --> 00:18:04,157
places to go get social status. So, so

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00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,437
after 2000 the joke was um so you know

335
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,357
when I got to Silicon Valley in '93 94
the valley was dead. We can talk about

336
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,197
that. By 98 it was roaring and you had
a lot of these people showing up who were

337
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,997
you bas you basically had a lot of a lot
of people showing up with with such kind

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of stories. 2000 the market crash. By

339
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,957
2001 the joke was that um there were

340
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,317
these terms B toC and B2B and in 1998

341
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,997
they meant B TOC meant um business
to consumer and B2B meant business to

342
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,477
business which is the two different
kinds of business models for internet

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00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,437
companies. By 2001, uh, B to B2B meant

344
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,997
back to banking. Uh, and B TOC meant
back to consulting, right? Which is the

345
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high status people who the people
oriented to status who showed up to be

346
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:44,637
in tech. We're like, "Yeah, screw it."

347
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,157
Like, "This is over. Stick a fork in it.

348
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,197
I'm going to go back to, you know,
Goldman Sachs or go back to Mckenzie,

349
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,757
you know, where I can where I can where
I can be high status." And so you you

350
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,837
you get this flushing kind of effect
that happens in a in a downturn. Um that

351
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,757
said on a on a in a big upswing yeah you
you get you get a lot of you get a lot

352
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,557
of people showing up with with a lot
of um you know with a lot of uh you know

353
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,637
kind of let's say public persona without
the substance to back it up. Um so the

354
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,677
way we stress that I can actually
say exactly how we test for this which

355
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,517
because it's it the test exactly
addresses the issue in a way that is

356
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,877
impossible to fake. Um and and it's
actually this it's actually the same way

357
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,157
homicide detectives try to find out if
you if you if you're if you actually if

358
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,317
you're innocent or whether you've killed
somebody. It's the same it's the same

359
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:27,357
tactic. um which is you you ask
increasingly detailed questions. Um,

360
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,477
right. And so, you know, the way
a homicide cop does this is, you know,

361
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,357
what were you doing last night? You know,
oh, I was at a movie. Well, which

362
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,517
movie? You know, d which theater,
[snorts] you know, okay, which seat did

363
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,797
you sit in? You know, okay,
what was the end of the movie? [laughter]

364
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,997
Right? Like, right. And you you ask
increasingly detailed questions and

365
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,117
people have trouble at some point people
have trouble making up and things just

366
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,637
fuzz into just kind of obvious [__]
And basically fake founders basically

367
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,837
have the same problem. They have a con
they're able to relay a conceptual

368
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,637
theory of what they're doing that
they've kind of engineered. Um, but as

369
00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,637
they get into the details, it just it
just fuzzes out. Whereas the the the

370
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,837
true people that you want to back
that can do it, basically what you find is

371
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,357
they've spent five or 10 or 20 years
obsessing on the details of whatever it

372
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,397
is they're about to do. And they're so
deep in the details that they know so

373
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,157
much more about it than you ever will.

374
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,597
And in fact, the best possible reaction
is when they get mad, right? Um, which

375
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,557
is also what the homicide cops say,
right? What you actually want is you

376
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,357
actually want the you basically want
the emotional response of like, I can't

377
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,197
believe that you're asking me questions
this detailed and specific and picky.

378
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,757
and [snorts] they kind of figure out
what you're doing. Um, and then they get

379
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,837
upset. Like that's good. That's perfect,
right? But but but they they have, you

380
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,397
know, but then they have to proven
themselves in in the sense of like they

381
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,437
have to be able to answer
the questions in in in great detail.

382
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,077
>> Do you think that people that are
able to answer those questions in great

383
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,317
detail have actually taken the time to

384
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,717
systematically think through the ifands?

385
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,957
>> Yeah. of all the possible implications
of what they're going to do and they

386
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:50,557
have a specific vision in mind of how

387
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,757
things need to turn out or will turn out

388
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,397
or do you think that um they have a a

389
00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:01,197
vision and it's a no matter what it will
work out because the world will sort of

390
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,157
bend around it. I mean in other words
do you think that they place their vision

391
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,957
in context or they simply have a vision
and they have that tunnel vision of that

392
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:13,517
thing and that's going to be it. Let's
use you for an example um with Netscape.

393
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,517
I mean, that's how I first came to know

394
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,877
your name. Um, when you were conceiving

395
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,597
Netscape, did you think, okay, there's

396
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,797
this search engine and this browser and

397
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,957
and it's going to be this thing that

398
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:28,877
looks this way and works this way and

399
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,637
feels this way. Um, did you think that

400
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,397
and also think about, you know, that there
was going to be a gallery of other

401
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,517
search engines and it would fit into
that landscape of other search engines

402
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:44,077
or were you just projecting your vision
of this thing as this unique um and

403
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,677
special um brainchild? >> Well,
I'm let me give the general answer

404
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,317
and then we can talk about the specific
example. So, the general answer is what

405
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,917
what entre entrepreneurship, creativity,
innovation is what economists call

406
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,357
decision-making under uncertainty, right?
And so, both parts are important.

407
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,517
decision-m like you're going to make
a ton of decisions because you have to

408
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,797
decide what to do, what not to do
and then uncertainty which is like the

409
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,477
world's a complicated place right
and in mathematical terms the world is a

410
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:11,117
complex adaptive system with feedback
loops and like it's really I mean it's

411
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,797
it's extreme you know Isaac Azimov wrote
the you know that in his novels he he

412
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,357
wrote about this field called psycho
history right which is the idea that

413
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,157
there's like a supercomputer that can
predict the future of like human affairs

414
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:24,877
right and it's like we don't have
that >> not [laughter] yet not yet we'll

415
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,357
>> get to that later we
certainly don't have that

416
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:31,837
Um and so you're just dealing, you know,
military uh commanders call this the fog

417
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,477
of war, right? You're you're just
dealing with a situation where the

418
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,997
number of variables are just off
the charts. It's all these other people,

419
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,877
right, who are inherently unpredictable
making all these decisions in different

420
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,837
directions and then the whole system is
combinatorial, which is these people are

421
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,317
colliding with each other, influencing
the decisions. And so I mean, look, the

422
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,117
most straightforward kind of way
to think about this is it's just it's

423
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,517
amazing. Like anybody who believes
in economic central planning, it always

424
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,797
blows my mind because it's like it's
just like try opening a restaurant.

425
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:01,677
like try just opening a restaurant on
the corner down here and like 50/50 odds

426
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,157
the restaurant's going to work and like
all you have to do to run a restaurant

427
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,277
is like have a thing and serve food
and like and it's like most restaurants

428
00:23:07,360 --> 00:23:09,597
fail, right? And so and restaurant
people run restaurants are like pretty

429
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,997
smart like they're you know they're they
usually think about these things very

430
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,117
hard and they all want to succeed.
Um, and it's hard to do that. And so to

431
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,877
start a tech company or to start
an artistic movement or to or to fight a

432
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,957
war, like you're just going into this like
basically b conceptual battleground

433
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,557
or military terms, real battleground
where there's just like incredible

434
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,477
levels of complexity, branching future
paths. And so there there's nothing it's

435
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,357
it's, you know, there's nothing
predictable. And so what we look for is

436
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:38,077
basically the the the sort of the really
good innovators, they've got a drive to

437
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,037
basically be able to cope with that and
deal with that. And they they basically

438
00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:44,477
do that in two steps. So one is they try
to pre-plan as much as they possibly can

439
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,077
and and and we call that the process
of navigating the we call the idea maze

440
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,277
right and so the idea maze basically
is I've got this general idea and it might

441
00:23:51,360 --> 00:23:54,077
be the internet's going to work
or search or whatever and then it's like

442
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,517
okay in their head they have thought
through of like okay if I do it this way

443
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,397
that way this third way here's what'll
happen then I have to do that then I

444
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,117
have to do this then I have to bring in
somebody to do that here's the technical

445
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,237
challenge I'm going to hit and they've
got in their in their heads as best

446
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,917
anybody could they they've got
as complete a sort of a map of possible

447
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,717
futures as they could possibly have
and and This is where I say when you ask

448
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,197
them increasing detailed questions,
that's what you're trying to kind of get

449
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,357
them to kind of chart out is, okay, how
far ahead have you thought and how much

450
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,997
are you anticipating all of the different
twists and turns that this is

451
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,117
going to take. Okay, so then they start
on day one. And then of course what

452
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,437
happens is, you know, now they're now
they're in it. They're in now they're in

453
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,797
the fog of war, right? They're in future
uncertainty. And now that idea maze is

454
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,437
maybe not helpful practically,
but now they're going to be basically

455
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,037
constructing on the fly day by day
as they learn and discover new things and

456
00:24:37,120 --> 00:24:39,437
as the world changes around them.
And of course it's a feedback loop because

457
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,517
they're going to change you know if
their thing starts to work it's going to

458
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,077
change the world and then the fact the
world is changing is going to cause you

459
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,477
know their plan to you know to change as
well. Um and so yeah the great the great

460
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,437
ones basically they they course correct
you know they the great ones course

461
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,037
correct every single day. You know they
take stock of what they've learned. Um

462
00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:56,877
uh you know they they modify the plan.

463
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,037
Um the great ones tend to think in terms
of hypothesis right like a scientific

464
00:25:01,120 --> 00:25:04,717
sort of mentality which is they tend
to think okay I'm going to try this like

465
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,717
I'm going to go into the world.
I'm going to announce that I'm doing this

466
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,997
for sure, right? Like I'm going to say
like this is my plan and I'm going to

467
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,157
tell all my employees that I'm going to
tell all my investors that and I'm going

468
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,477
to put a steak in there on this my plan
and then I'm going to try it, [snorts]

469
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,357
right? And even though I sound like I
have complete certainty, I know that I

470
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,557
need to test to find out whether it's
going to work. And if it's not, then I

471
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,277
have to go back to all those same people
and I have to say, well, actually, we're

472
00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:27,037
not going left, we're going right. And
they have to run that loop thousands of

473
00:25:27,120 --> 00:25:29,757
times, right? And they had, you know,
to get through the other side. And this

474
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,117
this led to the creation of this great
term pivot, which has been very helpful

475
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,997
in our industry because the the word
when I was when I was young, the word we

476
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,187
used was [__] Um, [snorts] and pivot
like sounds like so much better,

477
00:25:39,270 --> 00:25:42,237
[laughter] sounds like so much more
professional. But yeah, you like make

478
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,077
mistakes. It's just it's just too
complicated to understand. You course

479
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,397
correct, you adjust, you evolve. Often
these things, at least in business, the

480
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,117
businesses that end up working really
well tend to be different than the

481
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:57,517
original plan. But that's that's part
of the process of a really smart founder

482
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,717
basically working their way through
reality, right, as as as they're

483
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,437
executing their plan.
>> The way you're describing this has

484
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,117
parallels to a lot of models in biology
and the practice of science. Um, you

485
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,637
know, random walks, but that aren't
truly random. Pseudo random walks in

486
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,917
biology, etc. But one thing that uh is

487
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,677
becoming clear from the way you're
describing this is that I could imagine

488
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,637
a great risk to early success. Mhm.

489
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,317
>> So for instance, somebody develops
a product, people are excited by it. Um

490
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,237
they start to implement that product,
but then the landscape changes and they

491
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:33,197
don't learn how to pivot to use the um
less profane version of it, right? They

492
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,637
don't learn how to do that. In other
words, the uh and I think of everything

493
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,197
these days um or most everything
in terms of reward schedules and dopamine

494
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:45,197
reward schedules because that is the
universal currency of reward. Um and so

495
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,117
when you talk about the Sean Parker
quote of um learning to enjoy the taste

496
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,197
of one's own blood, that is very
different than learning to enjoy the

497
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:54,557
taste of success. That's right.

498
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,197
>> Right. It's about internalizing success

499
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,837
as a process of being self-determined

500
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:02,717
and less agreeable, etc. In other words,

501
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:07,837
building up of those five traits >>
becomes the source of dopamine perhaps

502
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,037
in a way that's highly adaptive. So
on the outside we just see the product the

503
00:27:11,120 --> 00:27:13,597
end product the iPhone the MacBook the

504
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,797
Netscape etc. But I have to presume and

505
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,877
I'm not a psychologist um but I have
done neurohysiology and I've uh studied

506
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,597
the dopamine system enough to know that

507
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,917
what's being rewarded in the context
of what you're describing sounds to be a

508
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,317
reinforcement of those five traits
rather than oh it's going to be this

509
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,037
particular product or the company's
going to look this way or the logo is

510
00:27:35,120 --> 00:27:37,037
going to be this or that. That all seems

511
00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:40,877
like the peripheral to um what's really

512
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:45,037
going on that great innovators are
really in the process of of establishing

513
00:27:45,120 --> 00:27:49,197
neural circuitry that is all
about reinforcing the me

514
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,357
>> and the process of being me.

515
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,597
>> Yeah. Yeah. So this this goes to Yeah.

516
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,637
So this is like extrinsic versus
intrinsic motivation. So the the Steve

517
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,157
Jobs kind of Zen version of this, right?

518
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,117
Or the sort of hippie version
of this was the journey is the reward,

519
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,837
>> right? He always he always told he
always told his employees that is like

520
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,397
look like you know everybody thinks
in terms of these big public markers like

521
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,277
the stock price or the IPO or the product
launch or whatever he's like no

522
00:28:09,360 --> 00:28:14,237
it's it's actually the the process
itself is the point right and and and if

523
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,397
you to your point if you have
that mentality then that's that's an

524
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,197
intrinsic motivation not an extra
exttrinsic motivation and so that's a

525
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,957
kind of intrinsic motivation that can
keep you going for a long time another

526
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,757
way to think about it is competing
against yourself right it's like can I

527
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,397
get better at doing this right and can I
prove to myself that I can get better um

528
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,597
there's also a big social component
to this and this is one of the reasons why

529
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,877
Silicon Valley punches so so far above
its weight as a place. Um there's a

530
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,477
psychological component which is also
goes to the comparison set. Um so a

531
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:44,717
phenomenon that we've observed over time
is the leading uh tech company in any

532
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,197
city uh will aspire to be as large as

533
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,917
the previous leading tech company
in that city but often not larger right

534
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,277
because they sort of they have a model
of success and as long as they beat that

535
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,837
level of success they've kind of you
know checked the box like they've made

536
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,597
it you know and and then they but then
in contrast you're in Silicon Valley and

537
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,717
you look around and it's just like
Facebook and Cisco and Oracle and you

538
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,157
know tulip Packard and >> gladiators.
Yeah. And you're just like

539
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,677
looking at these, you know, giants
and and and you know, many of them are

540
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,757
still, you know, Mark Zuckerberg's still,
you know, going to work every day

541
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,477
and like trying to trying to do, you know,
like and and so like these people

542
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,597
are like, you know, the role models are
like alive, right? Right. And they're

543
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,117
like right there, right? And it's so
clear like how much better they are and

544
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,157
how much bigger their accomplishments are.
And so what what we find is young

545
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,237
founders in that environment have
much greater aspirations, right? Right?

546
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,517
Because they just again maybe it's
at that point maybe it's the social status

547
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,197
maybe there's there's an extrinsic
component to that but or maybe it helps

548
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,557
calibrate that internal system
to basically say actually you know no the

549
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,517
opportunity here is not to build a local
you know which we call local maximum

550
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,037
form of success but let's build to a
global maximum form of success which is

551
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,877
which is something as big as we possibly
can. Um, ultimately the great ones are

552
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,597
probably driven more internally than
externally when when it comes down to

553
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,317
it. And that is where you get this
phenomenon where you get people who are,

554
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,117
you know, extremely successful
and extremely wealthy who very easily can

555
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:04,077
punch out and move to Fiji and just call
it and they're still working 16our days,

556
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,117
right? And so obviously something
explains that that has nothing to do

557
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,277
with external rewards. And and I
think it's it's it's an internal thing.

558
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,557
>> I'd like to take a quick break
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559
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560
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564
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565
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566
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567
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569
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577
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578
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,357
I've heard you talk a lot about the

579
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,837
inner landscape, the inner psychology
of these folks and I appreciate that we're

580
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,837
going even deeper into that today and we
will talk about the the landscape around

581
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,477
whether or not Silicon Valley or New
York whether or not there are specific

582
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,437
cities that are ideal for certain
types of pursuits. I think there was an

583
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,357
article written by Paul Graham some
years ago about um the conversations

584
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,237
that you overhear in a city will tell
you everything you need to know about

585
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,797
whether or not you belong there uh
in terms of your uh professional pursuits.

586
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,077
Um, some of that's changed over time and
now we should probably add Austin to the

587
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,077
mix. Um, because it was written some

588
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,677
time ago. Um, in any event, I want to

589
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:08,557
return to that, but I want to focus
on an aspect of this intrinsic versus

590
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,717
exttrinsic motivators in terms
of something that's a bit more cryptic,

591
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,557
which is uh, one's personal
relationships. You know, if I think

592
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,877
about the um catalog of innovators
in Silicon Valley, some of them like Steve

593
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,957
Jobs had complicated personal lives,
romantic personal lives early on, and it

594
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:28,077
sounds like he worked it out. I don't
know. I didn't uh I wasn't their uh

595
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:32,797
couple's therapist, but you know, he um
when he died, he was in a marriage that

596
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:34,237
for all the world seemed like a happy

597
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,837
marriage. Um you also have examples of

598
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,597
innovators who have had many partners,
many children with other partners. Elon

599
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,277
comes to mind. Um, you know, I I don't
think I'm disclosing anything that isn't

600
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,517
already obvious. Um, those could have
been happy relationships and just had

601
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,917
many of them. But the reason I'm asking

602
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,237
this is you can imagine that for the

603
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,717
innovator, the person with these traits

604
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,197
who's trying to build up this this

605
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,077
thing, whatever it is, that having

606
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,917
someone or several people in some cases,

607
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,957
um, who just truly believe in you when
the rest of the world may not believe in

608
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,157
you yet or at all, >> could be
immensely powerful. And we have

609
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,557
examples from cults >> that um,
uh, embody this. We have

610
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:23,117
examples from politics. We have examples
from tech innovation and science. Uh,

611
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,397
and I've always been fascinated
by this because I feel like it's the more

612
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,597
cryptic and yet very potent form of

613
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:31,997
allowing someone to build themselves up.

614
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:36,157
It's a combination of inner psychology
and exttrinsic motivation because

615
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:40,477
obviously if that person were to die
or leave them or um cheat on them or you

616
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,637
know pair up with some other innovator
which we've seen several times recently

617
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,797
and in the past it can be devastating
to that person. But what are your thoughts

618
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,877
on the role of personal and in

619
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:56,237
particular romantic relationship as it
relates to people having an idea and

620
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,917
they're feeling that they can really
bring that idea to fruition in the world.

621
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,917
>> So I it's a real mixed bag. You have
lots of examples in all directions and I

622
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,717
think it's something like it's something
like something like following. So first

623
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,677
is we talked about the personality
traits of these people. They tend to be

624
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,797
highly disagreeable. >> Doesn't
foster a good romantic relationship.

625
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,717
>> Highly disagreeable people can
be difficult [laughter] to be in

626
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,317
relationship. >> I may have
heard of that once or twice

627
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,637
before. friend may [clears
throat] have given me that example.

628
00:34:18,720 --> 00:34:20,797
>> Yeah. Right. And you know, maybe you
just need to find the right person who

629
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,037
like complements that and is willing to,
you know, there's there's a lot of

630
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,277
relationships where like you it's
always this question about relationships,

631
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,837
right? Which is do you want to have
the same personality, you know, growth

632
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,317
profile, the same behavioral traits
basically as your partner or do you

633
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,597
actually want to have, you know, is it
is it an opposites opposites thing? And

634
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,757
you know, look, I'm sure you've seen this.
There are relationships where

635
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,757
you'll have somebody who's highly
disagreeable who's paired with somebody

636
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,797
who's highly agreeable. And it actually
works out great because one person just

637
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,197
gets to be on their soap box all the time
and the other person is just like,

638
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:47,437
"Okay, right. [laughter] It's fine,
right? It's fine. That's good. Um, you

639
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,797
know, you put two disagreeable people
together, you know, maybe sparks fly and

640
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,117
they have great conversations all
the time and maybe they come to hate each

641
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,877
other, right? And so, um, so anyway, so
these people, if you're going to be with

642
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,677
one of these people, you're fishing out
of the disagreeable end of the pond. And

643
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,077
and again, when I say disagreeable,
I don't mean, you know, these are these

644
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,277
are normal distributions.
I don't mean like 60% disagreeable or 80%

645
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,117
disagreeable. The people we're talking
about are 99.99% disagreeable, right? So

646
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:13,517
these are ordinary ordinary people.
So so part of it's that and then of course

647
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,997
they have the other personality traits,
right? they're they're, you know, super

648
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,717
conscientious. They're super driven.
As a consequence, they tend to work really

649
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,437
hard. They tend to not have a lot
of time for, you know, family vacations or

650
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,077
other things. You know, they're not they
then they don't enjoy them if they're

651
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,037
forced to go on them. And so, again,
that kind of thing can fray at a at a

652
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,317
relationship. So, so there there's a so
there's a fair amount in there that's

653
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,037
loaded. Like somebody who's going
to partner with one of these people needs

654
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,077
to be signed up for the ride. Um,
and that's that's a hard thing, you know,

655
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,517
that's a hard thing to do or or you
need a true partnership of two of these,

656
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,677
which is also hard to do. So, I think
that's part of it. Um and then look I

657
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,157
think a big part of it is you know
people achieve a certain level of

658
00:35:46,240 --> 00:35:49,997
success um and you know either
in their [laughter] own minds or you know

659
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,357
publicly um and then they start to be
able to get away with things right um

660
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,237
and they start to be able it's like
well okay you know now we're rich and

661
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,277
successful and famous and now I deserve
you know and and this is where you get

662
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:03,037
into I I view this now in the realm of
personal choice right you get in in this

663
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,757
thing where people start to think that
they deserve things um and so they start

664
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,437
to behave in you know very bad ways um
and and then they blow up their personal

665
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,957
worlds as a consequence and maybe
they regret later and maybe they don't,

666
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,197
right? It's always a always a question.

667
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,757
Um, so yeah, so I think there's that.

668
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:21,517
Um, and then I don't know like yeah,
some people just need maybe the other

669
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,157
part of it is some people just need
more emotional support than others. And I

670
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:27,117
don't know that that's a big I don't
know that that tilts either way. Like I

671
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,077
know I know some of these people who
have like great loving relationships and

672
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:33,917
seem to draw very much on having this
kind of firm foundation to rely upon.

673
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,317
And then I know other people who are
just like their personal lives are just

674
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:40,077
a continuous train wreck and it
doesn't seem doesn't seem to matter like

675
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,797
professionally. they just keep doing
what they're doing. And and and maybe

676
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,677
there's a maybe we could talk here
about like, you know, whatever is the

677
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,557
personality trait for risk-taking,
right? Like some people are so

678
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:52,157
incredibly riskrone that they need
to take risk in all aspects of their lives

679
00:36:52,240 --> 00:36:55,597
at all times and and if if if part
of their life gets stable, they find a way

680
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:59,757
to blow it up. Um and that's some
of some of these people you could describe

681
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,037
in those terms also. >> Yeah,
let's talk about that. Um because

682
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,157
I think um risk-taking and sensation

683
00:37:06,240 --> 00:37:08,317
seeking is something that fascinates me

684
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,477
um for my own reasons and in my

685
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,077
observations of others. Um

686
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:18,237
does it dovetail with these five
traits in a way that can really serve

687
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,517
innovation in ways that can benefit
everybody? The reason I say to benefit

688
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,997
everybody is because there is a view of

689
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,717
how we're painting this picture of the

690
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:31,197
innovator as this like really cruel
person. Um but oftentimes what we're

691
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,717
talking about are innovations that make
the world far better for billions of

692
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:35,757
people. >> Yeah, that's right.

693
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,357
>> Yeah. >> Yeah.
And and by the way, everything

694
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,237
we're talking about also is not just
in tech or science or or in business. It's

695
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,317
also everything we're also
talking about is true for the arts,

696
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,597
>> right? So, you know, the history of
like artistic expression is, you know, you

697
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:46,957
people with all these
same kinds of traits.

698
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,917
>> Well, I was thinking about Picasso
and his and his regular turnover of lovers

699
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,917
and partners and he was very open about

700
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:53,437
the fact that it was one of the sources

701
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,957
of his productivity uh slashcreativity.

702
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:01,277
Uh he wasn't shy about that. Um I I
suppose if he were alive today, it might

703
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,277
be a little bit different.
He might be judged a little differently.

704
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,877
>> Right. Or that was his story for you
know behaving in a pattern that you know

705
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,357
was very awful for the people
around him and he didn't care. Right.

706
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:10,717
>> Right. Maybe they left him.

707
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:14,077
>> Yeah. Like you know who knows, right?
So so so you know this puts and takes to

708
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,437
all this. Um but um but no. Okay. So I
have a theory. So here here's a theory.

709
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,677
This this is one of these. I keep a list
of things that will get me kicked out of

710
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,957
a dinner party. Um at topics
at any given point in time.

711
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:24,077
>> Do you read it before you go in?

712
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,037
>> Yeah. I just I yeah so I I I [laughter]

713
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:31,357
have it on on auto recall so that I can
I can get out of these things. But um so

714
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,997
here here's the thing that can get
me kicked out of a dinner party. Um uh

715
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:38,877
especially these days. Um so uh think
of the kind of person where it's like very

716
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,837
clear that they're like super high to
your point there is somebody who's super

717
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,077
high output in whatever domain they're in.
They've done things that have like

718
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:45,597
fundamentally like changed the world.

719
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,317
They've brought new whether it's
businesses or technologies or art you

720
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,397
know works of art um uh you know entire
schools of of creative expression in

721
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,917
some cases to the world. And then
at a certain point they blow themselves to

722
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,677
smitherines, right? And they do
that either through like a massive like

723
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,877
financial scandal. They do that through
a massive personal, you know, breakdown.

724
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,317
They do that through some sort of public
expression that causes them a huge

725
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,637
amount of problems. You know, they
say they say the wrong thing, maybe not

726
00:39:08,720 --> 00:39:11,837
once, but [laughter] several
hundred times and blow themselves to

727
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,637
smitherines. Um and and and there's
this, you know, there's this kind of

728
00:39:14,720 --> 00:39:17,757
arc. There's this moral arc that people
kind of want to apply which it's like

729
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,797
the Icarus, you know, the the you know,
flying too close to the sun and, you

730
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:24,077
know, he had it coming and he needed
to keep his ego under control and you get

731
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,757
kind of this, you know, kind of this
this this this judgment that applies. Um

732
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,677
so I have a different theory on this.
So the term I use to describe these people

733
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,157
and a lot of and by the way, a lot
of other people who don't actually blow

734
00:39:34,240 --> 00:39:38,317
themselves up but get close to it,
um which is a whole another set of people.

735
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:43,437
um uh I call them martyrs to
civilizational progress right so so work

736
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,957
backwards civilizational progress so
look the only way civilization gets

737
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:50,157
moved forward is when people like
this do something new right because

738
00:39:50,240 --> 00:39:54,397
civilization as a whole does not do new
things right groups of people do not do

739
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:58,237
new things right these these things
don't happen automatically like by by by

740
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,557
default nothing changes the only way
civilizational change on any of these

741
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:06,157
axes ever happens is because one of these
people stands up and says you know

742
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:08,397
no I'm going to do something different
than whatever everybody else has ever

743
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:12,477
done before. So th this is the this is
progress. Like this is actually how it

744
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:16,877
happens. Sometimes they get lionized
or awarded. Sometimes they get crucified.

745
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,037
Sometimes the crucification is literal.

746
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:20,637
Sometimes it's just you know symbolic.

747
00:40:20,720 --> 00:40:25,037
But like you know they are those kinds
of people. Um and then and then and then

748
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,877
murders like when when they go down
in flames like they have and again this is

749
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,757
where it really screws the people's
moral judgments cuz everybody wants to

750
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,437
have the sort of super clear story
of like okay he did a bad thing and he was

751
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:39,437
punished. And I'm I'm like, "No, no, no,
no, no." He was the kind of person who

752
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:43,437
was going to do great things and also
was going to take on a level of risk and

753
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,717
take on a level of sort of extreme
behavior such that he was going to

754
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,157
expose himself to flying too close
to the sun, wings melt, and crash to

755
00:40:50,240 --> 00:40:54,397
ground. But but but it's a package deal,
right? The the the reason you have the

756
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,517
Picassos and the Beethoven and all these
people is because they're willing to

757
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,117
take these extreme level of risks. they
they they are that creative and original

758
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,317
not just in their art or their business
but in everything else that they do that

759
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,357
they will set themselves up to be
able to fail psychologic you know a

760
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,597
psychologist would probably or
psychiatrist would probably say you know

761
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:11,997
maybe you know to what extent do they
actually like have a death wish do they

762
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,317
do they actually you know at some point
do they want to punish themselves do

763
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:18,397
they want to fail that I don't know but
you see this they they they deliberately

764
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,197
move themselves too close to the sun and
and and you can you can see it when it's

765
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,597
happening because like if [snorts]
they get too far from the sun they

766
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:27,117
deliberately move back towards it right
you know they they come right back and

767
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:31,757
they they they want the risk Uh,
and so anyway, like I I I yeah, so

768
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,997
martyrs to civilizational progress, like
this is how progress happens. When these

769
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,957
people crash and burn, the natural,
you know, inclination is to judge them

770
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:42,397
morally. I tend to think we should
basically say look like and and I don't

771
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,197
even know if this means like giving them
a moral pass or whatever, but it's like

772
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,437
look like this is how civil civilization
progresses and we need to at least

773
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,717
understand that there's
a self-sacrificial aspect to this that

774
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,837
that may be tragic and and often
is tragic, but it it is it is quite

775
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:57,837
literally self-sacrificial. Are there

776
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:01,677
any examples of great innovators who um

777
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,357
were able to compartmentalize their

778
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,797
risk-taking uh to such a degree that

779
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,877
they had what seemed to be
a morally impeccable life

780
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,837
>> in every domain except
in their business pursuits?

781
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,557
>> Yeah, that's right. So, some people
are very some people are very highly

782
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,637
controlled like that. Um some people are
able to like very narrowly and I I don't

783
00:42:20,720 --> 00:42:23,117
really want to set myself an example
in a lot of this, but I will tell you like

784
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:27,277
as an example like I I I will never use
debt in business. Uh, number one, you

785
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,837
know, number two, like I have the most
placid personal life you can imagine.

786
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,557
Number three, I'm not I'm the last
person in the world who's ever gonna do

787
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,157
an extreme sport. I mean, I'm not even
gonna go on the sauna on the ice bath.

788
00:42:36,240 --> 00:42:38,157
Like, I'm not I'm not doing any of this.

789
00:42:38,240 --> 00:42:41,997
Like, I don't doing any I'm not telesking.
No obligation. I'm not I'm

790
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,557
not on the Titan. I'm not, you know,
I'm not going down to see the Titanic.

791
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,477
>> Goodness, you weren't. >> I'm
not doing any of this. I'm not doing

792
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,037
any of this stuff. I have no interest.
I don't play golf. I don't ski. I I have

793
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,717
no interest in any of this stuff, right?

794
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,437
And so like there are ex and I know
people like this, right, who are very

795
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,997
high achievers. It's just like, yeah,
they they're they're they're completely

796
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,957
segmented. They're extreme risktakers in
business. They're completely button down

797
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,997
on the personal side. They're completely
buttoned down, you know, financially.

798
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,797
They're, you know, they they're
scrupulous with following every rule and

799
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,917
law you can possibly imagine. But but
they're still fantastic innovators. And

800
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,677
then I know many others who are just
like they've their life is on fire all

801
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,037
the time in every possible way.
And whenever it looks like the fire is

802
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,237
turning into embers, they figure out
a way to like relight the fire, right? um

803
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,197
and they just really want to live on the

804
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:25,437
edge. And so I I think that's maybe I
think that's an independent variable.

805
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:26,637
And again, I would apply the same thing.

806
00:43:26,720 --> 00:43:30,397
I think the same thing applies to the
arts. Um you know, classical music as an

807
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,117
example. Like I think Bach was,
you know, as an example, one of the you

808
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,717
know, kind of best you musicians of all
time, had just a completely sedate

809
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,837
personal life. You know, never had any
aberant behavior at all in his personal

810
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,957
life. You know, family man, tons of kids,
apparently, you know, pillar of

811
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,957
the community, right? Right. And so like
if Bach could be Bach and yet not like

812
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:50,957
burn his way through, you know, 300
mistresses or whatever, you know, maybe

813
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,557
you can too. >> So in thinking
about these two different

814
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,837
categories of innovators, those that
take on tremendous risk in all domains

815
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,477
of their life and those that take
on tremendous risk in a very

816
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,477
compartmentalized way, um I don't know

817
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:05,517
what the percentages are. Uh but I have

818
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,517
to wonder if in this modern age of the

819
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:09,917
public being far less forgivable, what

820
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,277
I'm referring to is cancel culture. Um,

821
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,917
do you think that we are limiting the

822
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,757
number of innovations

823
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,037
in total like by just simply frightening

824
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,597
or eliminating an enormous category of

825
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,597
innovators because they don't have the

826
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,637
confidence or the means or the um

827
00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:32,797
strategies in place to regulate.
So they're just either bowing out or

828
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,357
they're getting crossed off.
They're getting canceled one by one.

829
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:39,197
>> So do you think the public is less
tolerant than they used to be or more

830
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:40,877
tolerant?

831
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,477
Well, the systems that uh I'm not going

832
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,597
to be careful here. I think the um the

833
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:51,117
large institution systems, yes, are not

834
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,757
tolerant of what the public tells them

835
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:57,597
they shouldn't be tolerant of. Um and so

836
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:01,997
if there's enough noise, there's enough
noise in the mob, I think institutions

837
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:06,317
bow out. And here I'm referring not just
to univer they essentially say okay the

838
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,837
let the cancellation proceed or they
and maybe they're the maybe they're the

839
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,517
gavvel that comes down but but they're
not the the lever that got the thing

840
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,637
going. And so I'm not just thinking
about universities. I'm also thinking

841
00:45:16,720 --> 00:45:21,037
about advertisers. I'm thinking about
um the big movie houses that um cancel a

842
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,437
film that a given actor might be
in because they had something in their

843
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,917
personal life that's still getting
worked out. I'm thinking about people

844
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,957
who um are in a legal process that's not

845
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:33,037
yet resolved, but the public has
decided they're a bad person, etc.

846
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,157
>> My question is, are we
really talking about the public?

847
00:45:36,240 --> 00:45:39,677
I I agree with your question, and I'm
going to come back to it, but I I'm so

848
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,917
I'm going to examine one part of your
question, which is, is this really the

849
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,117
public we're talking about? And and I
would just say exhibit A is who is the

850
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:46,717
current front runner for the Republican

851
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:50,237
nomination? Um, today

852
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,797
the public [laughter] at least on one

853
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:57,437
side of the political aisle seems very
on board, right? Um, number two, like

854
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:01,197
look, uh, you know, there's a certain
musician who like, you know, flew too

855
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,997
close to the sun, blew himself to
smitherines. He's still hitting all-time

856
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:07,917
highs on music streams every month. The

857
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,597
public seems fine. >> Like I
I think the public might I I

858
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,317
would argue the public is actually more
open to these things than it actually

859
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,957
maybe ever has been. >> Um,
and we could talk about why that's

860
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,517
the case. I think it's a it's
a differentiation and this is what what

861
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,917
your question was aiming at but it's
a differentiation between the public and

862
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,157
the elites and so so so I my view is
everything that you just described as an

863
00:46:26,240 --> 00:46:29,837
elite phenomenon and actually the public
is very much not on board with it

864
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,877
>> interesting and and and so what's
actually happening is the division

865
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,917
what's happened is the public
and the elites have gapped out the the the

866
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,397
public is more forgiving of of of what

867
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:43,117
previously might have been considered
kind of eper extreme behavior um right

868
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,597
Scott Fitzgerald there are no second
acts in American lives it turns out

869
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,317
completely wrong turns out their second
acts, third acts, fourth acts.

870
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,117
Apparently, you can have a limited number
of acts. The public is actually up for it.

871
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:54,797
>> Yeah. I mean, I think of somebody
like Mike Tyson, right? I feel like he's

872
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,837
every, you know, his life exemplifies um

873
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:01,917
everything that's amazing and great
and also terrible about America.

874
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,437
>> If we took Mike Tyson to dinner tonight
at any restaurant anywhere in the United

875
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,197
States, what would happen?
>> He would be loved.

876
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:12,077
>> Oh, he would be like he would the
outpouring of enthusiasm and passion and

877
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:16,477
love >> would be incredible. Like it would
be unbelievable. This this is a great

878
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:19,357
example like it just like the and again
I'm not even going to draw more I'm not

879
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,837
even going to say I agree with that
or disagree with that of just like we I

880
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,597
think we all intuitively know that the
public is just like 100% like absolutely

881
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,557
like he's a legend like he's a legend
he's a living legend he's like a

882
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:31,437
cultural touchstone absolutely and you
see it when he shows up in movies right

883
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:34,317
he shows I remember the I mean the big
breakthrough where I figured this out

884
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,037
with respect to him because I don't
really follow sports but when he showed

885
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:40,557
up in that it was that first hangover
movie and he shows up and you know it

886
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:44,717
was I was in a theater and like the the
audience just goes bananas crazy they're

887
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,437
so excited to see him. >> Yeah,
he evokes delight. I always say

888
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:51,277
that Mike Tyson is the only person I'm
aware of that can wear a shirt with his

889
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:56,237
own name on it and it somehow doesn't
seem uh wrong. In fact, it just kind of

890
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:57,837
makes you like him more. >> Yeah.

891
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,117
>> Um it's it his ego feels very contoured

892
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,357
in a way that uh he knows who he is and

893
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:08,237
who he was and and yet there's a there's
a humbleness woven in maybe as a

894
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,597
consequence of all that he's been
through. I don't know. Um but yeah,

895
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:15,037
people love Mike. >> Publicly
loves him now. Exactly. Now,

896
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:17,917
you know, if he shows up to like lecture
at Harvard, right, like I think you're

897
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:19,117
probably going to get
a different reaction.

898
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:22,957
>> I don't know. I don't know. I mean,
David Simon, you know, the the guy who

899
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:27,197
wrote The Wire, gave a gave a talk
at Harvard and um and it sounded to me

900
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,517
based on his report of that um which is

901
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:33,117
very interesting. In fact, um that

902
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,277
people adore

903
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:38,877
um people who are connected to everybody

904
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:43,277
in that way. Like I feel like everybody
loves Mike from from above his status,

905
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:48,397
the sides, below his status. He's just
sort of he he occupies this this halo of

906
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,037
of love and adoration.
>> Okay. All right. Yeah.

907
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,317
>> Um Yeah. And then look, the other side
of this is the is is the elites. And you

908
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,717
kind of alluded to this, the institutions.
So So basically, it's like

909
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,277
the people who are like at least
nominally in charge or feel like they

910
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,277
should be in charge. >> Yeah.
I want to make sure we uh define

911
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,597
elite. So you're not necessarily talking
about people who are wealthy. You're

912
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:06,877
talking about people who have authority
within institutions. So the ultimate

913
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:11,197
definition of an elite
is who can get who fired,

914
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,317
right? Like that's the the ultimate test.
Who can get who fired, boycotted,

915
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:16,557
blacklisted, ostracized, like when push

916
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:21,597
prosecuted, jailed, like when push comes
to shove, right? I think that's always

917
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:24,317
the question. Who can destroy whose
career? And of course, you'll notice

918
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,277
that that is heavily asymmetric when
they when these fights play out. Like

919
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,677
there's very clear which side can get
the other the other side fired and which

920
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:33,037
side which side can't. Um and so yeah,
so look, I think we we live in a period

921
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,397
of time where the elites have gotten to be
extreme in a number of dimensions and

922
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:40,317
and I think it's characterized by for
sure extreme group think, um extreme

923
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:44,397
sanctimonyy, um extreme, you know,
moral, you know, I say dojon, um you

924
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:48,317
know, extreme, you know, this this weird
sort of modern Puritanism, um and then

925
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:52,637
an extreme sort of morality of like
punishment and terror against their

926
00:49:52,720 --> 00:49:55,837
perceived enemies. Um but but I wanted
to I wanted to go through that because I

927
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:58,237
actually think I actually think that's
a very different phenomenon. I think

928
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:00,317
what's happening at the elites is very
different than what's happening in the

929
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,997
in the population at large. And then of
course I I think there's a feedback loop

930
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,117
in there which is I think the population
at large is not on board with that

931
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:10,637
program. Right? I think the elites
are aware that the population is not on

932
00:50:10,720 --> 00:50:13,597
board with that program. I think they
judge the population negatively as a

933
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,797
consequence. That causes the elites
to harden their own positions. That causes

934
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:20,317
them to be even more alienating to the
population. And so they're, you know,

935
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:23,997
they're in sort of an oppositional
negative feedback loop. Um and yeah,

936
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,557
it's going to be and you know it's but
again it's a sort of question. Okay, who

937
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:30,877
who can get who fired? And so, you know,
elites are really good uh at getting

938
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:34,397
like normal people fired, ostracized,
banned, you know, hit pieces in the

939
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:38,317
press, like whatever. Um, you know, for
normal people to get elites fired, they

940
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:41,117
have to really like band together,
right? And really mount a serious

941
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,557
challenge, which mostly doesn't happen,
but but might be starting to happen in

942
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:45,277
some cases.

943
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,797
>> Do you think this um
power of the of the

944
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:54,557
elites over um stemmed from social
media sort of going against its original

945
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:57,197
purpose? I mean, when you think social
media, you think you're giving each and

946
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,837
every person their own little reality TV

947
00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:02,237
show, their own voice. And yet, um,

948
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,437
we've seen a dramatic uptick in the

949
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:10,637
number of cancellations and firings
related to immoral behavior based on

950
00:51:10,720 --> 00:51:14,077
things that were either done
or amplified on social media.

951
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:18,157
>> It's almost as if um the public
is holding the wrong end of the knife.

952
00:51:18,240 --> 00:51:23,277
>> Yeah. So the way I describe it, so
so I so I use these two terms and they're

953
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:25,837
somewhat interchangeable, but elites
and institutions and and they're they're

954
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:28,157
somewhat interchangeable because who
runs the institutions? The elites,

955
00:51:28,240 --> 00:51:32,397
right? And so it's it's a it's a sort
of a self-reinforcing thing. Um and you

956
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,877
know institutions of all kinds
institutions everything from you know

957
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:38,637
the government bureaucracies companies
nonprofits foundations NOS's you know

958
00:51:38,720 --> 00:51:41,757
tech companies you know on and on and
on like you know people who are in people

959
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:46,237
who are in charge of big complexes and
that that carry a lot of basically power

960
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:49,597
and influence and capability and money
as a consequence of their positional

961
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:53,757
authority right so you know the head
of a giant foundation may never have done

962
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,157
anything in their life that would cause
somebody to have a high opinion of them

963
00:51:56,240 --> 00:51:59,037
as a person but they're in charge
of this you know gigantic multi-billion

964
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:02,317
dollar complex and have all this power
of the results So that's just to define

965
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:05,757
terms at least institutions. Um so it's

966
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:10,397
actually interesting. Uh Gallup uh has
been doing polls on the following on the

967
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:13,677
question of of trust in institutions
which is sort of a therefore proxy for

968
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:18,557
trust in elites. Uh basically since the
early 1970s um and what you find and and

969
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:21,837
they do this across all the categories
of big institutions you know basically

970
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:24,237
every everyone I just talked about
a bunch of others big business small

971
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:29,437
business banks newspapers broadcast
television um the military police. So

972
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:32,557
they've got like 30 categories or
something. And basically what you see is

973
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:36,237
almost all the categories basically
started in the early 70s at like 60 or

974
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:40,477
70% trust and now they've basically
almost across the board they've just

975
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:44,637
done had a complete basically linear
slide down for 50 years basically my my

976
00:52:44,720 --> 00:52:48,717
whole life. Um and you know they're
they're they're now bottoming out. You

977
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:52,777
know Congress and journalists
bottom out at like 10%.

978
00:52:52,860 --> 00:52:55,037
[laughter] Right? Like the the two
groups everybody hates are like Congress

979
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:59,117
and journalists. Um, and then it's like
a lot of other big institutions are like

980
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,957
20 in their 20s, 30s, 40s. Actually,
big business actually scores fairly high.

981
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,317
Tech actually scores quite high.
The military scores quite high, but

982
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,997
basically everything else has really
caved in. And so, so this is sort of my

983
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,117
fundamental challenge to everybody who
basically says, and you you didn't do

984
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,917
this, but you you'll hear this the
simple form of this, which is social

985
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:20,717
media caused the current trouble. And
let's call this an example. Collapse in

986
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:22,637
faith and institutions and and elites.

987
00:53:22,720 --> 00:53:25,677
Let's call that part of the current
trouble. Um everybody's like well social

988
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:29,357
media caused that. I was like well no
social media social media is new right

989
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,157
in the last you know social media
is effectively new practically speaking

990
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:36,557
since 2010 2012 is when it really took
off. Um and so if the trend started in

991
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:39,677
the early 1970s right and has been
continuous then we're dealing with

992
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:44,077
something broader. U and and and and u
Martin Gur uh wrote I think the best

993
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,397
book on this called the revolt of the
public where he goes through this in

994
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:50,077
detail and and he he he does he does
say that um social media had a lot to do

995
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:51,677
with what's happened in the last decade.

996
00:53:51,760 --> 00:53:54,797
But he says is yeah if you go back you
look further it was basically two things

997
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:58,797
coinciding. Uh one was just a general
change in the media environment and in

998
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:02,397
particular in the 1970s is when you
started to and especially in the 1980s

999
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,277
is when you started to get
um specifically talk radio

1000
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:08,397
>> which was a new outlet. Um and then
you also started you also got cable

1001
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,597
television. Um and then you also by
the way it's actually interesting in the

1002
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,317
50s60s you had paperback books which
was another one of these which was an

1003
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,517
outlet. So you you you had like
a fracturing of the media landscape that

1004
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:20,797
started in the 50s through the 80s and
then of course the internet like blew it

1005
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:24,397
wide open. Having said that,
if the elites and the institutions were

1006
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:27,677
fantastic, you would know it more than
ever [laughter] because information is

1007
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,117
more accessible. And so the other thing
that he says and I agree with is the the

1008
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:33,917
public is not being tricked into
thinking the elites and institutions are

1009
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:37,277
bad. They're they're they're learning
that they're bad, right? And and and the

1010
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,837
mystery and therefore the mystery of the
Gallup poll is why those numbers aren't

1011
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:43,597
all just zero, right? which is,
you know, arguably, you know, in a lot of

1012
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,237
cases where they should be.
>> I think one reason that,

1013
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,037
>> oh, and by the way, he thinks this is
bad. So he and I have a different view.

1014
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:52,477
So here's where he and I disagree. He
thinks this is bad. So he's he basically

1015
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:56,317
says you you can't replace elites with
nothing. You can't replace institutions

1016
00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:59,277
with nothing. If if if because what
you're just left with is just going to

1017
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:02,557
be wreckage. You're going to left with a
completely basically, you know, atomized

1018
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:05,677
out of control society that has no
ability to marshall, you know, any sort

1019
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,717
of activity in any direction. It's just
going to be a dog eat dog awful, you

1020
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:11,997
know, world. Um, I have a very different
view on that which we could which we

1021
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,477
could talk about. >> Yeah, I'd love
to I'd love to hear your views on that.

1022
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:16,397
>> Yeah. The the quick
question I was going

1023
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:19,037
to ask before we go there is I think

1024
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,517
that one reason that I and many other

1025
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:23,757
people sort of reflexively assume that

1026
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:26,077
social media caused the the demise of

1027
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:29,597
our faith and institutions um is well

1028
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:32,237
first of all I wasn't aware of this um

1029
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:36,957
uh lack of correlation between the the
decline in faith and institutions and

1030
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,197
and the rise of social media but

1031
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:41,277
secondarily that we've seen some

1032
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:45,117
movements that have um essentially

1033
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:49,117
rooted themselves in tweets in comments

1034
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:51,917
in posts that get amplified and those

1035
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,237
tweets and comments and posts come from

1036
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:56,717
everyday people. In fact, I can't name

1037
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:00,317
one person who initiated uh a given uh

1038
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:04,237
cancellation or movement because it was
the sort of dog piling or mob um adding

1039
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:06,957
on to some person that was essentially
anonymous. So I think that for many of

1040
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:09,597
us we we have the bot to use
neuroscience language is sort of a

1041
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:14,237
bottom up in a perspective. Oh, you know,
someone sees something um in their

1042
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,917
daily life or experiences something in
their daily life and they tweet about it

1043
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,077
or they comment about it or they post

1044
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,677
about it and then enough people dogpile

1045
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:27,277
on the accused that um it picks up force

1046
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:30,397
and then the elites feel compelled um

1047
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:34,237
obligated to cancel somebody. Um that

1048
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:37,437
tends to be the narrative. And so I
think the logical conclusion is oh you

1049
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,477
know social media allows for this to
happen whereas normally someone would

1050
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:43,757
just be standing on the corner shouting
or calling lawyers that don't have faith

1051
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:47,757
in them and you know you got the like
the Aaron Brachovich model of a you know

1052
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:51,357
um you know that turns into a movie
but that's a rare case of this lone woman

1053
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:56,397
who's got this idea in mind about how um
big institution is is doing wrong uh or

1054
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:59,757
somebody is doing wrong in the world
and then can leverage big institutions

1055
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:01,997
excuse me but the way that you describe

1056
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:07,277
it is that the elites are um
are leading this this shift.

1057
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,317
>> So% >> so what is the
role of the public in it?

1058
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:12,157
I mean I mean just to give it a concrete

1059
00:57:12,240 --> 00:57:13,997
example um

1060
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:18,077
>> if for instance no one um tweeted or

1061
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:21,117
commented a meto or no one tweeted or

1062
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:24,317
commented about um some ill behavior of

1063
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:26,317
some I don't know university faculty

1064
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:31,437
member or um business person would
the elite have come down on them

1065
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,077
anyway? >> Oh yeah.
So what's happening? So what

1066
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:35,837
would which I based on what I've seen

1067
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:41,277
over the years um is is it's it's it
there is so much astrourfing right now

1068
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:44,797
there there are entire categories
of people who are paid to do this um some

1069
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,757
of them we call journalists um some
of them we call activists some of them we

1070
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:50,557
call you know NGO you know nonprofits
some of them we call university

1071
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,597
professors some of them we call grad
students like whatever they're paid to

1072
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,077
do this you know re I don't know
if you've ever looked into the

1073
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:59,757
misinformation uh industrial complex
there's this whole universe of basically

1074
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:02,637
these funded groups that basically
do quote unquote misin you know quote

1075
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:06,077
unquote min information and and they're
constantly mounting these kinds of

1076
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:09,517
attacks. They're constantly trying
to jin up this kind of basically panic to

1077
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:12,637
cause somebody to get fired.
Like >> so it's not a grassroots.

1078
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,517
>> It's the opposite of grassroots.
No, almost always when you trace these

1079
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,957
things back, it was a it was a journalist.
It was an activist. It was a

1080
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:21,837
it was a it was a public
figure of some kind.

1081
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:25,517
>> Um these are entrepreneur there there's
these are entrepreneurs in a in a sort

1082
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,637
of a weird way. Like they're they're
basically they're they're paid to their

1083
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,917
job mission calling in it's all
wrapped up together. like they're true

1084
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,557
believers, but they're also getting
paid to do it. Um, and there's a giant

1085
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,437
funding I mean there's a very large
funding complex for this coming from,

1086
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:41,197
you know, certain high-profile people
who put huge amounts of money into this.

1087
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,157
>> Is this well known? >> Yes.
Well, so I mean it is in my world.

1088
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:46,877
So this is what the social media
companies have been on the receiving end

1089
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:51,517
of for the last decade. Um, is it's
this it's it's basic basically a political

1090
00:58:51,600 --> 00:58:55,277
media activism complex with very deep
pockets behind it. And you've got people

1091
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:59,037
who basically literally people who sit
all day and watch the TV network on the

1092
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:01,677
other side or watch the Twitter feeds
the other side and they wait. They they

1093
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:04,477
basically wait. It's like every
politician, this has been the case for a

1094
00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:06,957
long time now. Every every politician
who goes out and gunk speeches, you'll

1095
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:09,757
see there's always somebody in the crowd
with a camcorder or now with a phone

1096
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:13,357
recording them. And that's somebody from
the other campaign who's paid somebody

1097
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:16,397
to just be there and like record every
single thing the politician says. So

1098
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,677
that so that when a Mitt Romney says
whatever the 47% thing, they've got it

1099
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:23,037
on tape and then they clip it and they
and they try to make it viral. So th

1100
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:26,397
this stuff is and again like look like
these people believe what they're doing.

1101
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:28,717
I'm not saying it's even dishonest. Like
these people believe what they're doing.

1102
00:59:28,800 --> 00:59:29,917
They think they're fighting a holy war.

1103
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:31,197
They think they're protecting democracy.

1104
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,117
They think they're protecting
civilization. They think they're

1105
00:59:33,200 --> 00:59:36,877
protecting whatever it is they're
protecting. Um but but they and then

1106
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:39,917
they know how to use the tools and so
they they know how to they know how to

1107
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:43,277
try to jin up the outrage. And then
by the way, sometimes it works in social

1108
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:46,557
cascade. Sometimes it works, sometimes
it doesn't. Sometimes they cascade,

1109
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:49,437
sometimes they don't. But if you follow
these people on Twitter, like this is

1110
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:52,237
what they do every day. They're
constantly trying to like light life is

1111
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,517
fire, right? I assume that it was really

1112
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:59,277
bottom up, but it sounds like it's sort
of a mid level and then it and that it

1113
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:02,237
captures the elites and then
the thing takes on a life of its own.

1114
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:04,797
>> By the way, it also intersects with
the trust and safety groups at the social

1115
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:07,917
media firms, right, who are responsible
for figuring out who gets promoted and

1116
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:11,437
who gets banned right across this.
And you'll notice one large social media

1117
01:00:11,520 --> 01:00:15,557
company has recently changed hands
and has implemented a different kind of

1118
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:18,477
[laughter] set of trust and safety.
and all of a sudden a different kind of

1119
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:21,037
boycott movement has all of a sudden
started to work that wasn't working

1120
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:23,837
before that and and another kind
of boycott movement is not working as well

1121
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:27,837
anymore. Um and so there's like for sure
there's an intermediation happening like

1122
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:30,477
look the stuff that's happening
in the world today is being intermediated

1123
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,677
through social media because social
media is the defining media of our time.

1124
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:37,277
Um but there are people who know how
to do this and and and do this for a

1125
01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:41,597
living. So so no I I very much view
this as a I I view very much the like

1126
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:43,117
cancellation wave like this whole thing.

1127
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:47,437
It's it's a it's a it's it's an it's an
elite phenomenon. Um and when it appears

1128
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:51,037
to be a grassroots thing, it's it's it's
it's either grassroots among the elites,

1129
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,677
which you know is possible because
there's, you know, a fairly large number

1130
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:56,797
of people who are like signed up for that,
you know, that particular crusade.

1131
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,277
Um but there's also a lot
of astroturfing that's taking place inside

1132
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:02,397
that. The question is, okay, at what
point does the population at large get

1133
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:06,397
pulled into this and and maybe there
are movements at certain points in time

1134
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:08,957
where they do get pulled in and then
maybe later they get disillusioned. And

1135
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,437
so then there's some question there.
And then there's another question of like,

1136
01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:13,917
well, if the population at large
is going to decide what these movements

1137
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:17,037
are, are they going to be the same
movements as that the elites want? And

1138
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:19,677
are the elites how are the elites going
to react when the population actually

1139
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:23,197
like fully expresses itself, right?
And so there's and like I said, there's a

1140
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:25,997
feedback loop between these where
the more extreme the elites get, they tend

1141
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:29,037
to push the population to more extreme
views on the other side and vice versa.

1142
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:31,037
So it ping pongs back and forth. And so

1143
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:32,797
yeah, this is yeah, this is our world.

1144
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:37,277
>> Yeah, this explains a lot.
Um I want to make sure that I

1145
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,877
>> Taibbe. So M Shelonberger, Matt Taibbe,
a bunch of these guys have done a lot of

1146
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:44,797
work just if you just look into what's
called the misinformation industrial

1147
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:47,277
complex, >> you'll find
a network of money and power

1148
01:01:47,360 --> 01:01:52,237
that is really quite amazing. >> I've
seen um more and more Shelonburgger

1149
01:01:52,320 --> 01:01:55,117
showing up, right? Um >> and he's
just look on this stuff he and

1150
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:58,477
he and Ta just they're literally just
like tracking money. I it's just like

1151
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:01,837
it's it's very clear how the money flows
in including like a remarkable amount of

1152
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:04,557
money out of the government,
>> you know, which is of course like in

1153
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:07,357
theory very concerning.
>> Very interesting.

1154
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:10,237
>> The government should not be
funding programs that take away people's

1155
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:14,877
constitutional rights and yet
somehow that is what's been happening.

1156
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:19,037
>> Very interesting. >> Yes.
>> I want to make sure that I hear your

1157
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:21,597
ideas about why the uh decline in

1158
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,957
confidence in institutions and is not

1159
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:29,837
necessarily problematic. Um, is this
going to be a uh total destruction,

1160
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:33,517
burning down of the forest that will
lead to new life? Is that your view?

1161
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:34,877
>> Yeah. Well, so this this is the thing.

1162
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,117
And and look, there's a question if
you're there's a couple questions in

1163
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:41,677
here, which is just like how how bad
is it really? Like how bad are they,

1164
01:02:41,760 --> 01:02:43,597
>> right? And I I you
know, I think they're

1165
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:47,677
pretty bad. Uh a lot of them are pretty
actually bad. Um and so so so that's one

1166
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:50,557
big question. And then yeah, look,
the other question is like okay, if an

1167
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:54,077
institution has gone bad or a group
of elites have gone bad, like can can it's

1168
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:57,197
this wonderful word reform, right? Can
can can they be reformed? And everybody

1169
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:00,317
always wants to reform everything and yet
somehow like nothing ever quite ever

1170
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:03,197
gets reformed, right? Um and so people
have been trying to reform, you know,

1171
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:05,917
housing policy in the Bay Area
for decades. And you know, we're not

1172
01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:09,117
building building fewer houses than ever
before. So somehow reform movements seem

1173
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:12,797
to lead to more just just just more bad
stuff. But anyway, yeah. So if you have

1174
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,117
an existing institution, can it be
reformed? Can it be fixed from the

1175
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:17,677
inside? Like what's happened
in universities? Like there's a lot of

1176
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:20,237
there are professors at Stanford as an
example who very much think that they

1177
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:23,677
can fix Stanford.
Like I don't know what you think. It

1178
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:27,037
doesn't seem like it's going
in productive directions right now.

1179
01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:29,757
>> Well, I mean, there are many things
about Stanford that function extremely

1180
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:33,437
well. I It's a big institution. It's
certainly got its issues like any other

1181
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:35,437
place. Um, they're also my employer.

1182
01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:37,037
Mark's giving me some interesting looks.

1183
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,877
He wants me to get a little more vocal
here. Um, no, no, you don't. No, no. I I

1184
01:03:40,960 --> 01:03:42,397
mean, I think that um
to put you on the spot.

1185
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:44,957
>> Yeah. I mean, one of the things about
being a researcher at a big institution

1186
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:48,317
like Stanford is well, first of all,
it meets the criteria that you described

1187
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,677
before. You know, you look to the left,
you look to the right or anywhere above

1188
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:55,677
or below you and you have excellence,
right? I mean, I've got a Nobel Prize

1189
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:59,597
winner below me whose daddy also won
a Nobel Prize and there is scientific

1190
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:03,757
offspring is likely to win. I mean,
you it it inspires you to do bigger things

1191
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:08,317
than uh than one ordinarily would no
matter what. So, there's that and that's

1192
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:13,037
great and that persists. Um there's
all the uh bureaucratic red tape about

1193
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:17,197
trying to get things done and how to
implement decisions is very hard. Um and

1194
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:19,917
there are a lot of reasons for that. And
then of course there are the things that

1195
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:24,317
um you know many people are aware of are
there are uh public accusations about

1196
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:27,357
people in positions of great leadership
and that's getting played out and it's

1197
01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:31,197
and the whole thing becomes kind
of overwhelming and a little bit opaque

1198
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:34,557
when you're just trying to like run
your lab or live your life. And so I think

1199
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:38,077
one of the reasons for um this lack
of reform that you're referring to

1200
01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:41,197
>> is because um there's no position of

1201
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:46,237
reformer, right? So deans are dealing
with a lot of issues. Provis are dealing

1202
01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:49,277
with a lot of issues. Presidents are
dealing with a lot of issues and and

1203
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:54,157
then some, uh, in some cases. And so,
um, you know, we don't have a dedicated

1204
01:04:54,240 --> 01:04:57,917
role of reformer, someone to go in and
say, "Listen, there there's just a lot

1205
01:04:58,000 --> 01:05:01,437
of fat on this and we need to trim it
or we need to create this or do that.

1206
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:05,037
There's there just isn't a system to do
that." Um, and that's I think in part

1207
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:09,277
because um, universities are are built
on old systems and you know, it's like

1208
01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:10,877
build it's like the New York subway.

1209
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,317
It's still it's amazing it still works
as well as it does and yet it's got a

1210
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:15,997
ton of problems also. >> Yeah.

1211
01:05:16,080 --> 01:05:18,797
>> Well, look so so so the point
the point we could we could debate the the

1212
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:21,357
universities specifically but the
point is like look if you do think

1213
01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:23,917
institutions are going bad and then you
have to make it number one you have to

1214
01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:26,877
figure out if you think institutions are
going bad. The population largely does

1215
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:30,077
think that then at the very least
the people who run institutions ought to

1216
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:31,437
really think hard about what that means.

1217
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:36,317
But people still strive to go to these
places. And I still hear from people who

1218
01:05:36,400 --> 01:05:39,277
like, for instance, did not go
to college are talking about how a

1219
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:42,237
university degree is useless. They'll
tell you how proud they are that their

1220
01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:46,557
son or daughter is going to Stanford
or is going to UCLA or is going to Urbana

1221
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:50,637
Champagne. I mean, it's almost like
to me that's always the most um you know,

1222
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:53,997
shocking contradiction is like, yeah,
like these institutions don't matter,

1223
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:57,997
but then when people want to hold up
a card that says why their kid is great,

1224
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:00,877
it's it's not about how many push-ups
they can do or that they started their

1225
01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:04,717
own business most of the time. It's
they're going to this university and I

1226
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:06,237
think, well, what's going on here?

1227
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:08,797
>> So, do you think the median voter in
the United States can have their kid go to

1228
01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:12,317
Stanford? >> No. >> No. >> No. And and >>
do you think the median voter in the

1229
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:14,397
United States could have their kid
admitted to Stanford even with perfect

1230
01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:19,117
SAT? No, no, no. [laughter] It in this day

1231
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:21,997
and age, the competition is so
fierce that it requires more.

1232
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:25,597
>> Yeah. So like, so first of all, again,
we're dealing here. Yes. We're dealing

1233
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,797
with there with a small number of very
elite institutions. People may admire

1234
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:33,357
them or not. U most people have no
connectivity to them whatsoever. In the

1235
01:06:33,440 --> 01:06:37,917
statistics, in the polling, universities
are not doing well. The population at

1236
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:40,317
large, yeah, they may have fantasies
about their kid going to Stanford, but

1237
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:43,437
like the reality of it is they have
a very very collapsing view of these

1238
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:47,437
institutions. Um so so anyways this this
actually goes straight to the question

1239
01:06:47,520 --> 01:06:50,237
of alternatives then right which
is like okay if you believe that there's

1240
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:53,037
collapsing faith in the institutions if
you believe that it is merited at least

1241
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:56,397
in some ways um if you believe that
reform is effectively impossible then

1242
01:06:56,480 --> 01:07:00,717
you are faced and we could debate each
of those but like the population at

1243
01:07:00,800 --> 01:07:04,477
large seems to believe a lot of that um
then there's a question of like okay

1244
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:08,397
like can can it be replaced and if so
like are you better off replacing these

1245
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:11,517
things basically while the old things
still exist or do you actually need to

1246
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,637
basically clear the field to be
able to have the new thing exist?

1247
01:07:14,720 --> 01:07:17,197
The universities are a great case study
of this because of the student because

1248
01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:20,877
of how student loans work, right? And
and the way student loans work is to to

1249
01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:24,717
be able to be a to be to be an actual
competitive university and compete, you

1250
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:27,277
need to have access to federal student
lending because if you don't, everybody

1251
01:07:27,360 --> 01:07:29,517
has to pay out of pocket and it's
completely out of reach for anybody

1252
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:32,797
other than, you know, a certain class
of either extremely rich or foreign

1253
01:07:32,880 --> 01:07:35,757
students. Um, so you need access
to federal student loan facility. To get

1254
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:38,477
access to the federal student loan
facility, you need to be an accredited

1255
01:07:38,560 --> 01:07:43,037
university. >> Guess who runs
the accreditation council? I don't know

1256
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:46,317
>> the existing universities, >> right?
So, it's a it's a it's a it's a

1257
01:07:46,400 --> 01:07:49,037
it's a it's a it's a selfundaing machine.
Like they they decide who the

1258
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:51,917
new universities are. Guess how many new
universities get accredited, right, each

1259
01:07:52,000 --> 01:07:54,317
year to be able? >> Zero.

1260
01:07:54,400 --> 01:07:59,357
>> Zero, right? Um and so as long as that
system is in place and as long as they

1261
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:03,037
have the government wired the way that
they do and as long as they control who

1262
01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:05,917
gets access to federal student loan
funding, like of course there's not

1263
01:08:06,000 --> 01:08:08,717
going to be any competition. Like
of course there can't be a new institution

1264
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:10,237
that's going to be able to get to scale.

1265
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:14,317
Like it's not possible. And so if you
actually wanted to create a new system

1266
01:08:14,400 --> 01:08:17,357
that was better in the you know I would
argue dozens or hundreds of ways it

1267
01:08:17,440 --> 01:08:20,877
could obvious obviously be better if you
were starting today um it probably can't

1268
01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:24,157
be done as long as the existing
institutions are actually intact. Um and

1269
01:08:24,240 --> 01:08:28,077
this is my counter to to Martin which
is like yeah we look we we we if we're

1270
01:08:28,160 --> 01:08:30,797
going to tear down the old there may be
a period of disruption before we get to

1271
01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:33,597
the new but we're never going to get
to the new if we don't tear down the old.

1272
01:08:33,680 --> 01:08:35,997
When you say counter to Martin, you're
talking about the author of Revolt tool

1273
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:37,677
to the public. >> Martin Gary.
Yeah. What Martin Guri says

1274
01:08:37,760 --> 01:08:41,757
is like look, he said basically um
what Martin says what Martin says is as

1275
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:44,397
follows. Um the elites deserve contempt.

1276
01:08:44,480 --> 01:08:46,797
Um but the only thing worse than these

1277
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:51,437
elites that deserve contempt would be no
elites at all. Right. Um and and because

1278
01:08:51,520 --> 01:08:54,477
and he basically says on the other side
on the other side of the destruction of

1279
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:57,757
the elites and the institutions
is is nihilism. You're basically left with

1280
01:08:57,840 --> 01:08:59,997
nothing. And and by the way, there
is a nihilistic streak. I mean there's a

1281
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:02,637
nihilistic streak in the in the culture
and the politics today. there are people

1282
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:05,437
who basically would just say, "Yeah,
just tear tear the whole system down,

1283
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:09,037
right? And there without any particular
plan for for what follows." And so you

1284
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:12,397
you I I think he he makes a good point
and that you want to be careful that you

1285
01:09:12,480 --> 01:09:15,357
actually have a plan on the other side
that you think is actually achievable.

1286
01:09:15,440 --> 01:09:18,397
But but the the but again the
counterargument to that is if you're not

1287
01:09:18,480 --> 01:09:22,237
willing to actually tear down the old,
you're not going to get to the new. Now

1288
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:25,117
what's interesting of course is this
is what happens every day in business,

1289
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:28,797
right? So like the entire way like how
do how do you know that the capitalist

1290
01:09:28,880 --> 01:09:32,717
system works? The way that you know
is that the old companies when they're no

1291
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:36,077
longer like the best at what they do,
they get torn down and then they

1292
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:38,237
ultimately die and they get
replaced by better companies.

1293
01:09:38,320 --> 01:09:40,077
>> Yeah. I haven't
seen a Sears in a while.

1294
01:09:40,160 --> 01:09:43,997
>> Exactly. Right. And we know what's
what's so interesting is we know in in

1295
01:09:44,080 --> 01:09:48,037
capitalism and market economy, we know
that that's the sign of health, right?

1296
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:50,877
[laughter] That's the sign of how
the system is working properly, right? And

1297
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:53,837
in fact, we get actually judged
by antitrust authorities in the government

1298
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:57,917
on that basis, right? It's like the best
defense against antitrust charges is no,

1299
01:09:58,000 --> 01:09:59,917
people are like coming to kill us and
they're doing like a really good job of

1300
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:03,037
it. Like that that's how we know we're
doing our job. And in fact, in business,

1301
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:06,317
we are specifically it is specifically
illegal for companies in the same

1302
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:09,437
industry to get together and plot
and conspire and plan and have things like

1303
01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:12,877
these accreditation bureaus. Like we we
would get if I created the equivalent in

1304
01:10:12,960 --> 01:10:15,117
my companies of the kind
of accreditation bureau that the

1305
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:18,077
universities have, I'd get straight
to federal prison and a trust violation

1306
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:21,357
Sherman act straight to prison. People
have been sent to prison for that. So in

1307
01:10:21,440 --> 01:10:24,797
the business world, we know that you
want everything subject to market

1308
01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:27,837
competition. We we know that you want
creative destruction. We know that you

1309
01:10:27,920 --> 01:10:31,197
want replacement of the old with with
superior new. It's just once we get

1310
01:10:31,280 --> 01:10:33,757
outside of business, we're like, oh,
we don't want any of that. We want we want

1311
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:38,077
basically stagnation and log rolling,
right? And in you know, and basically,

1312
01:10:38,160 --> 01:10:40,637
you know, institutional, you know,
incestuous like, you know, entanglements

1313
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:43,837
and conflicts of interest, you know,
as far as the eye can see. And then we're

1314
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:47,677
surprised by the results.
>> So let's play it out um as a bit of a

1315
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:50,317
thought experiment. So let's say that um

1316
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:54,157
one small banding together of people who

1317
01:10:54,240 --> 01:10:56,397
want to start a new university where

1318
01:10:56,480 --> 01:10:59,917
free exchange of open ideas um where

1319
01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:03,997
unless somebody has you know egregious
behavior, violent behavior, you know,

1320
01:11:04,080 --> 01:11:06,877
truly sexually inappropriate behavior
against somebody, you know, that

1321
01:11:06,960 --> 01:11:09,677
committing a crime, right? They're
allowed to be there. They're allowed to

1322
01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:12,557
be a student or a faculty member um or

1323
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:17,597
administrator. and let's just say this um
accreditation bureau allowed student

1324
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:20,157
loans for this one particular
university or let's say that there was an

1325
01:11:20,240 --> 01:11:23,197
independent source of funding for that
university such that students could just

1326
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:27,277
apply there. They didn't need to be part
of this you know this elite accredited

1327
01:11:27,360 --> 01:11:29,997
group which is sounds very mafial like

1328
01:11:30,080 --> 01:11:32,877
frankly um not necessarily violent but

1329
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:35,357
certainly coercive in this in and uh in

1330
01:11:35,440 --> 01:11:37,917
the way that it walls people out. Um,

1331
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:40,797
let's say that then there were

1332
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:43,837
20 or 30 of those or 40 of those. Do you

1333
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:48,477
think that over time that model
would overtake the the existing model?

1334
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:52,317
>> Is it interesting
that those don't exist?

1335
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:55,437
>> Remember the Sherlock
Holmes the dog that didn't bark?

1336
01:11:55,520 --> 01:11:57,197
>> It is interesting those don't exist.

1337
01:11:57,280 --> 01:11:59,677
>> Right. So there's there's two
possibilities. One is like nobody wants

1338
01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:03,517
that which I don't believe. Um and then
the other is like the system is wired in

1339
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:05,197
a way that will just simply not allow it.

1340
01:12:05,280 --> 01:12:08,557
>> Right. And you did a hypothetical
in which the system would allow it. And my

1341
01:12:08,640 --> 01:12:10,557
response to that is no, of course,
the system won't allow that.

1342
01:12:10,640 --> 01:12:13,917
>> Or the people that band together, you
know, have enough money or or get enough

1343
01:12:14,000 --> 01:12:17,677
resources to say, look, we can um you
know, we can afford to give loans to,

1344
01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:21,117
you know, 10,000 students per year. You
know, 10,000 isn't a trivial number when

1345
01:12:21,200 --> 01:12:25,117
thinking about the size of a university
and um and you know, they most of them

1346
01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:29,677
hopefully will graduate in four years
and there'll be a turnover. And um do

1347
01:12:29,760 --> 01:12:32,077
you think that the great future

1348
01:12:32,160 --> 01:12:34,557
innovators would tend to orient toward

1349
01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:39,117
that model um more than they currently
do toward the traditional model? I I

1350
01:12:39,200 --> 01:12:41,997
mean what I'm trying to get back to here
is how do you think that the current

1351
01:12:42,080 --> 01:12:45,517
model thwarts innovation? Um as well as

1352
01:12:45,600 --> 01:12:49,677
maybe some ways that it still supports
innovation. Um certainly cancellation

1353
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:51,597
and the the risk of cancellation from

1354
01:12:51,680 --> 01:12:56,717
the way that we framed it earlier
is going to um discourage risktakers um of

1355
01:12:56,800 --> 01:13:01,437
the category of risk takers that take
risk and every every domain that really

1356
01:13:01,520 --> 01:13:03,597
like to fly close to the sun
and sometimes into the sun,

1357
01:13:03,680 --> 01:13:06,717
>> right? Or are doing research
that is just not politically

1358
01:13:06,800 --> 01:13:11,757
>> right. Yeah. Looking into issues that
you know right that um that you know we

1359
01:13:11,840 --> 01:13:14,797
can't even talk about on this podcast
probably without without causing a

1360
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:17,197
distraction of what we're actually
trying to talk about. That gives up the

1361
01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:20,957
whole game right there. >> Exactly.
Yeah. [laughter] Um so the uh

1362
01:13:21,040 --> 01:13:24,557
you know I keep a file and it's
a written file um because I'm afraid to

1363
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:28,157
put it in into electronic form of all
the things that I'm afraid to talk about

1364
01:13:28,240 --> 01:13:32,237
publicly because I come from a lineage
of advisers where all three died young

1365
01:13:32,320 --> 01:13:35,517
and I figure if nothing else I'll die
and then you know I'll make it into the

1366
01:13:35,600 --> 01:13:40,397
world and you know when I'll say 5 10
years um 20 years and uh if not you know

1367
01:13:40,480 --> 01:13:42,877
I know with certainty I'm going to die
at some point and then we we'll see

1368
01:13:42,960 --> 01:13:45,517
where all those issues stand.
In any event, um,

1369
01:13:45,600 --> 01:13:47,277
>> is that list getting
longer over time or shorter?

1370
01:13:47,360 --> 01:13:48,557
>> Oh, it's definitely getting longer.

1371
01:13:48,640 --> 01:13:51,037
>> Isn't that interesting? >> Yeah,
it's get it's getting much longer.

1372
01:13:51,120 --> 01:13:53,357
I mean, um, there are just so many

1373
01:13:53,440 --> 01:13:55,437
issues that I would love to explore on

1374
01:13:55,520 --> 01:13:59,597
this podcast with experts and, um, that

1375
01:13:59,680 --> 01:14:02,637
I can't explore just bec even if I had a

1376
01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:06,797
panel of them because of the way that
things get sound bited and segmented out

1377
01:14:06,880 --> 01:14:11,277
and taken out of context, it's like
the whole conversation is lost. And so

1378
01:14:11,360 --> 01:14:12,637
fortunately there are an immense number

1379
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:15,437
of equally interesting conversations um

1380
01:14:15,520 --> 01:14:19,677
that I'm excited to have.
Uh but it is it is a little disturbing.

1381
01:14:19,760 --> 01:14:21,597
>> Do you remember Lysenkoism?

1382
01:14:21,680 --> 01:14:24,397
>> Uh no. >> Oh so Len
so famous in the Soviet

1383
01:14:24,480 --> 01:14:26,957
history of the Soviet Union this is
a famous thing. So there was a genet

1384
01:14:27,040 --> 01:14:29,997
geneticist named Lysenko. Um >>
that's why it sounds familiar but I'm

1385
01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:33,357
not I'm not calling to mind.
>> Well he was the guy who did uh he did

1386
01:14:33,440 --> 01:14:37,757
communist gen genetics. Um the field of
genetics. The Soviets did not approve of

1387
01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:40,877
the field of genetics because of course
they believed in the creation of the new

1388
01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:44,557
man and you know totally equality and
genetics did not support that. Um and so

1389
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:47,517
if you were doing like traditional
genetics you were you know going to be

1390
01:14:47,600 --> 01:14:51,197
you know at the very least fired if not
if not killed. Um and so this guy Leno

1391
01:14:51,280 --> 01:14:53,997
stood up and said oh I've got Marxist
genetics right I've got like a whole new

1392
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:57,037
field of genetics that basically
is politically compliant. And then they

1393
01:14:57,120 --> 01:14:59,917
actually implemented that in the
agriculture system of the Soviet Union

1394
01:15:00,000 --> 01:15:02,557
and it's it's the origin of one
of the big reasons that the Soviet Union

1395
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:06,157
actually fell which was they ultimately
couldn't feed themselves. So create a

1396
01:15:06,240 --> 01:15:08,717
new notion of biology
as it relates to genetics,

1397
01:15:08,800 --> 01:15:11,757
>> politically correct biology, right? And
so and so and they they not only created

1398
01:15:11,840 --> 01:15:14,477
it, they taught it, they they mandated it,
they required it and then they

1399
01:15:14,560 --> 01:15:17,997
implemented it in agriculture.
Um interesting. So so yeah, so it's it's I

1400
01:15:18,080 --> 01:15:20,717
I never understood there's a bunch
of things in history I never understood

1401
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:22,557
until the last decade
and that's one of them.

1402
01:15:22,640 --> 01:15:26,077
>> Well, I censor myself at the level
of deleting certain things, but I don't

1403
01:15:26,160 --> 01:15:31,917
contort what I do talk about. So I tend
to like to play on um lush open fields.

1404
01:15:32,000 --> 01:15:34,477
Yeah. >> Uh just makes my life.
This go this goes

1405
01:15:34,560 --> 01:15:37,117
to the rot this goes to the rot and I'll
come back to your question but like this

1406
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:39,837
goes to the rot in the existing system
which is we we've by the way I'm no

1407
01:15:39,920 --> 01:15:42,397
different I'm just like you like I'm not
I'm trying not to light myself on fire

1408
01:15:42,480 --> 01:15:45,917
either but like the the rot in the
existing system and by system I mean the

1409
01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:49,277
institutions and the elites the the rot
is that the set of things that are no

1410
01:15:49,360 --> 01:15:50,957
longer allow I mean that list is like

1411
01:15:51,040 --> 01:15:53,197
obviously expanding over time um and

1412
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:56,317
like that's a real like historically

1413
01:15:56,400 --> 01:15:58,957
speaking that doesn't end in good places

1414
01:15:59,040 --> 01:16:00,717
>> is this group of a
particular generation

1415
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:03,757
that we can look forward to the time
when they eventually die off.

1416
01:16:03,840 --> 01:16:07,197
>> It's sort of the boomers plus
the millennials. So, >> got a while.

1417
01:16:07,280 --> 01:16:10,157
>> Good good news, bad news.
>> I mean, Gen X is weird, right? Gen I'm

1418
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:12,957
Gen X. Gen X is weird because we we kind
of slipped in the middle. We're we're

1419
01:16:13,040 --> 01:16:16,717
kind of we were kind of the um I don't
like I don't know how to describe it. We

1420
01:16:16,800 --> 01:16:18,797
were the kind of non-political
generation kind of sandwiched between

1421
01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:20,397
the boomers and the millennials.

1422
01:16:20,480 --> 01:16:24,317
>> Gen Z is a very I think open question
right now which way they go. I could

1423
01:16:24,400 --> 01:16:28,157
imagine them being actually like
much more intense than the millennials

1424
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:30,637
>> on all these issues. I could also
imagine them reacting to the millennials

1425
01:16:30,720 --> 01:16:32,477
and being far more open-minded.

1426
01:16:32,560 --> 01:16:33,917
>> We don't know which
way it's going to go here.

1427
01:16:34,000 --> 01:16:35,677
>> It's going to go.
It might be different groups of them.

1428
01:16:35,760 --> 01:16:38,957
>> I mean, I'm Gen X also.
I'm 47. You're >> 5050. Yeah.

1429
01:16:39,040 --> 01:16:41,917
>> Right. So, more or less same. So,
grew up with some John Hughes films and so

1430
01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:46,557
where the the jocks and the hippies and
the punks and the were all divided. They

1431
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:48,237
were all segmented, but then it all sort

1432
01:16:48,320 --> 01:16:51,037
of mish mashed together a few years

1433
01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:55,437
later. Um, and I think that had a lot
to do with um, like you said, the sort of

1434
01:16:55,520 --> 01:16:58,637
a-political um, aspect of our generation.

1435
01:16:58,720 --> 01:17:02,637
>> We just knew we the Gen X just knew the
Boomers were nuts, right? Like all the I

1436
01:17:02,720 --> 01:17:06,397
mean, this is the canonical, right?
The one of the great sitcoms of of of the

1437
01:17:06,480 --> 01:17:09,757
era um, was Family Ties, right,
with the character Michael P. Katon.

1438
01:17:09,840 --> 01:17:12,797
>> And he was just like this guy is just
like, "Yeah, my boomer hippie parents

1439
01:17:12,880 --> 01:17:15,037
are crazy. Like I'm just going to like
go into business and like actually do

1440
01:17:15,120 --> 01:17:17,597
something productive." Like there
was something like iconic about that

1441
01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:19,757
character in our culture. And you know,
people like me were like, "Yeah,

1442
01:17:19,840 --> 01:17:22,077
obviously you go into business,
>> you know, going to like political

1443
01:17:22,160 --> 01:17:24,877
activism." And then, you know, it's
just like, man, that came whipping back

1444
01:17:24,960 --> 01:17:27,917
around with the next generation.
Um, so just to touch real quick on the

1445
01:17:28,000 --> 01:17:30,237
university thing. So, look, there are
people trying to do, and I'm actually

1446
01:17:30,320 --> 01:17:33,117
going to do a thing this afternoon with
the University of Austin, which is which

1447
01:17:33,200 --> 01:17:35,597
is which is which is one of these.
And so, there are people trying to do new

1448
01:17:35,680 --> 01:17:39,117
universities. Um, you know, I I like
I say, it's certainly possible. I hope

1449
01:17:39,200 --> 01:17:41,517
they succeed. I'm pulling for them.
I think it'd be great. I think it'd be

1450
01:17:41,600 --> 01:17:42,877
great if there were a lot more of them.

1451
01:17:42,960 --> 01:17:44,077
>> Who founded this university?

1452
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:47,597
>> Uh, this is a whole group of people.
I don't want to um freelance on that

1453
01:17:47,680 --> 01:17:49,357
because I don't know
originally who the idea was.

1454
01:17:49,440 --> 01:17:51,277
>> University of Austin, not UT Austin.

1455
01:17:51,360 --> 01:17:54,157
>> Yeah. So, this is not UT Austin. It's
called it's called University of Austin

1456
01:17:54,240 --> 01:17:58,317
or they call it I think
it's UAT or what is it? UATX.

1457
01:17:58,400 --> 01:18:03,597
>> Um and so um and it's a lot of very
sharp people associated with it. Um and

1458
01:18:03,680 --> 01:18:06,157
um then they're they're they're going
to try to very very much exactly like what

1459
01:18:06,240 --> 01:18:08,797
you described. They're going to try to do
a new one. I would just tell you like

1460
01:18:08,880 --> 01:18:12,797
the wall of opposition that they're up
against is profound, right? Um, and part

1461
01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:15,677
of it is economic, which is can they
ever get access to federal student

1462
01:18:15,760 --> 01:18:18,957
lending? And I, you know, I I hope that
they can, but I I I, you know, it seems

1463
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:21,517
nearly inconceivable the way
the system's rigged today.

1464
01:18:21,600 --> 01:18:24,477
>> Um, and then, you know, the other
is just like they're going to they already

1465
01:18:24,560 --> 01:18:28,557
have come under, I mean, any any anybody
any [laughter] anybody who publicly

1466
01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:30,877
associates with them who is in
traditional academia immediately gets

1467
01:18:30,960 --> 01:18:33,357
lit on fire, right? And there's like,
you know, cancellation campaigns. Like,

1468
01:18:33,440 --> 01:18:35,597
so they're up against
a wall of social ostracism.

1469
01:18:35,680 --> 01:18:38,797
>> Wow. >> Um, they're up against a wall
of, you know, press attacks. um they're up

1470
01:18:38,880 --> 01:18:42,477
against a wall of um you know people
just like doing the thing pouncing on

1471
01:18:42,560 --> 01:18:44,797
any anytime anybody says anything
they're going to try to like burn the

1472
01:18:44,880 --> 01:18:47,277
place down. This reminds me of like like

1473
01:18:47,360 --> 01:18:49,517
um Jerry Springer episodes and Heraldo

1474
01:18:49,600 --> 01:18:52,557
Rivera episodes where um you know it's

1475
01:18:52,640 --> 01:18:56,317
like if a teen listened to um you know

1476
01:18:56,400 --> 01:18:59,517
like Danzig or Marilyn Manson type music

1477
01:18:59,600 --> 01:19:03,477
or Metallica that they were considered
a devil worshipper like we right now we

1478
01:19:03,560 --> 01:19:06,637
[clears throat] just laugh right we're
like that's crazy right people listen to

1479
01:19:06,720 --> 01:19:08,237
music with all sorts of lyrics and ideas

1480
01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:11,597
and looks and and like that's crazy. Um,

1481
01:19:11,680 --> 01:19:15,757
but you know, there were people
legitimately sent to prison. I think it

1482
01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:19,837
was the West Memphis three, right?
These kids out in West Memphis that looked

1483
01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:23,917
different, acted different, were accused
of murders that eventually it was um

1484
01:19:24,000 --> 01:19:27,757
made clear they clearly didn't commit,
but they were in prison because of the

1485
01:19:27,840 --> 01:19:31,037
music they listened to. I mean,
this sounds very similar to that. And I

1486
01:19:31,120 --> 01:19:34,317
remember seeing bumper cigars, free
the West Memphis 3, and I thought this was

1487
01:19:34,400 --> 01:19:38,157
some crazy thing. you look into it
and this isn't uh it's a little bit niche

1488
01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:40,717
but um I mean these are real lives and

1489
01:19:40,800 --> 01:19:43,997
there was a active uh witch hunt for

1490
01:19:44,080 --> 01:19:47,997
people that looked different and acted
different and yet now we're sort of in

1491
01:19:48,080 --> 01:19:52,957
this inverted world where um on the one
hand we're all told that we can express

1492
01:19:53,040 --> 01:19:55,917
ourselves however we want but on the
other hand you can't get a bunch of

1493
01:19:56,000 --> 01:19:57,597
people together to take classes where

1494
01:19:57,680 --> 01:20:03,677
they learn biology
and sociology and econ in Texas

1495
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:06,157
wild >> yes also So
the you know the simple

1496
01:20:06,240 --> 01:20:09,357
explanation is it's this is puritanism
right? So this is the original American

1497
01:20:09,440 --> 01:20:13,437
pur puritanism that just like works
itself out through the system in

1498
01:20:13,520 --> 01:20:15,917
different ways at different times.
You know there's this phenomen there's a

1499
01:20:16,000 --> 01:20:18,957
religious phenomenon in America called
the the great awakenings. There's just

1500
01:20:19,040 --> 01:20:21,357
there there will be these periods in
American history where there's basically

1501
01:20:21,440 --> 01:20:24,077
religiosity fades and then there will
be this snapback effect where you'll have

1502
01:20:24,160 --> 01:20:27,997
this basically this you know frenzy
basically of religion. You know in the

1503
01:20:28,080 --> 01:20:30,557
old days it would have been you know
tent revivals and people speaking in

1504
01:20:30,640 --> 01:20:34,157
tongues and all this stuff. Um and then
in the modern world it's it's you know

1505
01:20:34,240 --> 01:20:37,117
it's it's of the form that we're living
through right now. Um and so yeah, it's

1506
01:20:37,200 --> 01:20:41,517
just basically these waves of sort of
American religious and you know remember

1507
01:20:41,600 --> 01:20:44,877
like religion in our time religious
impulses in our time don't get express

1508
01:20:44,960 --> 01:20:47,437
you because we live in we live
in more advanced times right we live in

1509
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:50,317
scientifically informed times and so
religious impulses in our time don't

1510
01:20:50,400 --> 01:20:54,717
show up as overtly religious right
they show up in a secularized form

1511
01:20:54,800 --> 01:20:57,517
>> right which of course conveniently is
is is therefore not subject to the first

1512
01:20:57,600 --> 01:21:01,197
amendment separation of church and state
right as long as the church is secular

1513
01:21:01,280 --> 01:21:04,157
there's no problem right and so but
but we're we're acting out these kind of

1514
01:21:04,240 --> 01:21:06,397
religious scripts over and over again
and we're in the middle of another

1515
01:21:06,480 --> 01:21:08,237
religious frenzy.

1516
01:21:08,320 --> 01:21:13,597
>> There's a phrase that I hear a lot and
um I don't necessarily believe it, but I

1517
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:17,197
want your thoughts on it, which
is the pendulum always swings back.

1518
01:21:17,280 --> 01:21:19,997
>> Yeah. Not quite. >> Well,
so that's how I feel too because,

1519
01:21:20,080 --> 01:21:22,237
you know, I'll take that.

1520
01:21:22,320 --> 01:21:27,117
>> Take any number of things that we've
talked about and um you know, gosh, it's

1521
01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:30,797
so crazy, you know, the the way things
have have gone with institutions or it's

1522
01:21:30,880 --> 01:21:34,157
so crazy the way things have gone
with social media or it's so crazy fill in

1523
01:21:34,240 --> 01:21:37,677
the blank. And people will
say, well, you know, the

1524
01:21:37,760 --> 01:21:41,597
pendulum always swings back like like the
like it's the stock market or something.

1525
01:21:41,680 --> 01:21:46,157
>> You know, after every crash, there'll
be an eventual boom and vice versa.

1526
01:21:46,240 --> 01:21:47,277
>> By the way, that's not true either.

1527
01:21:47,360 --> 01:21:49,357
Right. >> Right.
>> Most most stock markets we have, of

1528
01:21:49,440 --> 01:21:51,517
course, survivorship. It's all
survivorship. Everything is survivor.

1529
01:21:51,600 --> 01:21:54,237
It's all everything you just said
is obviously survivorship bias. Right. So,

1530
01:21:54,320 --> 01:21:57,917
if you look globally, most stock markets
over time crash and burn and never

1531
01:21:58,000 --> 01:22:01,277
recover. >> The American stock
market hasn't always recovered,

1532
01:22:01,360 --> 01:22:02,877
>> right? I was referring
to the American stock market.

1533
01:22:02,960 --> 01:22:04,797
>> Yeah. right >> globally.
But the reason everybody

1534
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:06,877
refers to the American stock market
is because it's the one that doesn't do

1535
01:22:06,960 --> 01:22:10,797
that. [snorts] The other 200 or whatever
[laughter] that crash and burn and never

1536
01:22:10,880 --> 01:22:13,917
recover. Like let's go check in on the,
you know, an Argentina stock market

1537
01:22:14,000 --> 01:22:15,997
right now. Like I don't think
it's coming back anytime soon.

1538
01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:20,557
>> Yeah. My father is Argentine and
immigrated to the US in the 1960s. So he

1539
01:22:20,640 --> 01:22:21,837
would definitely agree with that.

1540
01:22:21,920 --> 01:22:24,477
>> Yeah. Like it doesn't come. It doesn't
come, you know, like when when their

1541
01:22:24,560 --> 01:22:28,237
stocks crashed, they don't come back.
Um so and then you knowism like the Soviet

1542
01:22:28,320 --> 01:22:29,597
Union never recovered from lysencoism.

1543
01:22:29,680 --> 01:22:33,037
It never came back. It led to the end
of the country. you know, literally the

1544
01:22:33,120 --> 01:22:35,997
things that took down the Soviet Union
were oil and and wheat and the wheat

1545
01:22:36,080 --> 01:22:40,477
thing. You can trace the crisis back
to lysencoism. Um and so, um yeah, no,

1546
01:22:40,560 --> 01:22:44,077
look, I pendulum always swings back
is true only in the cases where the

1547
01:22:44,160 --> 01:22:47,677
pendulum swings back. Everybody just
conveniently forgets all the other

1548
01:22:47,760 --> 01:22:49,117
circumstances where that doesn't happen.

1549
01:22:49,200 --> 01:22:53,037
One of the things people you see this
in business also, um people have a really

1550
01:22:53,120 --> 01:22:55,997
hard time confronting really bad news.

1551
01:22:56,080 --> 01:22:59,597
>> I don't know if you've noticed that.
Um I think like every doctor who's

1552
01:22:59,680 --> 01:23:03,597
listening right now is like, "Yeah,
no shit." But like like there are situ you

1553
01:23:03,680 --> 01:23:07,357
see it in business there are situations
that it's Star Trek remember Star Trek

1554
01:23:07,440 --> 01:23:10,717
the Kobayashi Maru uh simulator right
so the big lesson to become a Star Trek

1555
01:23:10,800 --> 01:23:13,277
captain is you had to go through the
simulation called the Kobayashimaru and

1556
01:23:13,360 --> 01:23:16,717
the point was there's no way to it's
a no-win scenario right and then the and

1557
01:23:16,800 --> 01:23:19,837
then it turned out like Captain Kirk was
the only person to ever win the scenario

1558
01:23:19,920 --> 01:23:22,397
and the way that he did it was he he
went in ahead of time and hacked the

1559
01:23:22,480 --> 01:23:25,597
simulator right it was the only way
to actually get through and then there was

1560
01:23:25,680 --> 01:23:29,517
a debate whether to fire him or make him
a captain so they made him a captain um

1561
01:23:29,600 --> 01:23:33,357
and like you know problem is in real
life like we we you do get the Kobayashi

1562
01:23:33,440 --> 01:23:36,317
Maru on a regular basis like there are
actual no-win situations that you can't

1563
01:23:36,400 --> 01:23:39,997
work your way out of and as a leader
you can't ever comp to that right because

1564
01:23:40,080 --> 01:23:42,317
you have to like carry things forward
and you have to look for every every

1565
01:23:42,400 --> 01:23:44,797
possible choice you can but like
every once in a while you do run into a

1566
01:23:44,880 --> 01:23:48,077
situation where it's really not
recoverable and at least I found people

1567
01:23:48,160 --> 01:23:51,437
just like cannot cope with that and so
and so what happens is they basically

1568
01:23:51,520 --> 01:23:55,917
then they basically just like exclude it
from their memory that it ever happened.

1569
01:23:56,000 --> 01:23:58,797
I'm glad you brought up simulators
because I want to make sure that we talk

1570
01:23:58,880 --> 01:24:02,077
about um the new and emerging landscape

1571
01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:05,837
of AI, artificial intelligence. Um, and

1572
01:24:05,920 --> 01:24:09,517
I could try and uh smooth our

1573
01:24:09,600 --> 01:24:12,237
conversation of a moment ago uh with the

1574
01:24:12,320 --> 01:24:14,477
this one uh by creating some clever

1575
01:24:14,560 --> 01:24:16,797
segway, but I'm not going to except I'm

1576
01:24:16,880 --> 01:24:19,997
going to ask is there a possibility that

1577
01:24:20,080 --> 01:24:24,397
AI is going to remedy some of what we're
talking about? Um let's make sure that

1578
01:24:24,480 --> 01:24:28,157
we earmark that for discussion a little
bit later. But first off, because some

1579
01:24:28,240 --> 01:24:32,717
of um the listeners of this podcast
might not be as familiar with AI as

1580
01:24:32,800 --> 01:24:36,157
perhaps they should be. We've all heard
about artificial intelligence. People

1581
01:24:36,240 --> 01:24:38,877
hear about machine learning, etc. But um

1582
01:24:38,960 --> 01:24:40,797
it'd be great if you could define for us

1583
01:24:40,880 --> 01:24:44,877
what AI is. Um people almost immediately

1584
01:24:44,960 --> 01:24:48,957
hear AI and think, okay, robots taking
over. I'm going to wake up and I'm going

1585
01:24:49,040 --> 01:24:52,717
to, you know, strapped to the bed and my
organs are going to be pulled out of me.

1586
01:24:52,800 --> 01:24:54,237
um that robots are going to be in my

1587
01:24:54,320 --> 01:24:55,837
bank account. They're going to kill all

1588
01:24:55,920 --> 01:25:01,277
my children and um dystopia um for most

1589
01:25:01,360 --> 01:25:03,917
um clearly that's not the way it's going

1590
01:25:04,000 --> 01:25:07,677
to go. Um if you believe that machines

1591
01:25:07,760 --> 01:25:10,477
can augment human intelligence and human

1592
01:25:10,560 --> 01:25:13,597
intelligence is a good thing. So um tell

1593
01:25:13,680 --> 01:25:17,757
us what AI is and um where you think it

1594
01:25:17,840 --> 01:25:19,917
can take us both good and bad.

1595
01:25:20,000 --> 01:25:23,597
>> Yeah. So, so, so there was a big debate
when the computer was first invented,

1596
01:25:23,680 --> 01:25:27,677
which was in the 1930s, 1940s.
This people like Alan Turing and John von

1597
01:25:27,760 --> 01:25:32,557
Norman and these people. Um, and the big
debate at the time, um, was because they

1598
01:25:32,640 --> 01:25:33,597
knew they wanted to build computers.

1599
01:25:33,680 --> 01:25:36,477
They they had the basic idea. Um,
and you know, there had been like

1600
01:25:36,560 --> 01:25:39,037
calculating machines before that and there
had been like there had been these

1601
01:25:39,120 --> 01:25:41,677
looms that you basically programmed
with punch cards and so there was like a

1602
01:25:41,760 --> 01:25:44,237
there was a prehistory to computers
that had to do with building sort of

1603
01:25:44,320 --> 01:25:47,197
increasingly complex calculating
machines. So they were kind of on a

1604
01:25:47,280 --> 01:25:49,597
track, but they knew they were going
to be able to build they call a general

1605
01:25:49,680 --> 01:25:52,317
purpose computer that could basically
you could program in the way that you

1606
01:25:52,400 --> 01:25:55,917
program computers today. Um but they
had a big debate early on which is should

1607
01:25:56,000 --> 01:26:00,157
the fundamental architecture of the
computer be based on either a like

1608
01:26:00,240 --> 01:26:03,997
calculating machines like cash registers
and looms and right and other things

1609
01:26:04,080 --> 01:26:07,757
like that or should it be based on a
model of the human brain? Um and they

1610
01:26:07,840 --> 01:26:11,597
actually had this idea of computers
modeling the human brain back then. Um

1611
01:26:11,680 --> 01:26:14,797
and this was this concept of so-called
neural networks. Um, and it's it's

1612
01:26:14,880 --> 01:26:17,917
actually fairly astonishing from a
from a research standpoint. The original

1613
01:26:18,000 --> 01:26:21,917
paper on neural networks actually was
published in 1943, right? So so so they

1614
01:26:22,000 --> 01:26:24,237
didn't have our level of neuroscience,
but like they actually knew about the

1615
01:26:24,320 --> 01:26:26,717
neuron and they actually had a theory
of like neurons interconnecting and

1616
01:26:26,800 --> 01:26:31,597
synapses and information processing in
the brain even even back then. Um, and a

1617
01:26:31,680 --> 01:26:34,397
lot of people at the time basically said,
you know what, we should basically

1618
01:26:34,480 --> 01:26:37,437
have the computer from the start model
after the human brain because like if we

1619
01:26:37,520 --> 01:26:39,757
could if the computer could do
everything that the human brain can do,

1620
01:26:39,840 --> 01:26:42,317
like that would be the best possible
general purpose computer and then you

1621
01:26:42,400 --> 01:26:44,797
could have it do jobs and you could have
it, you know, create art and you could

1622
01:26:44,880 --> 01:26:48,317
have it do all kinds of things like
humans can do. Um, it turns out that

1623
01:26:48,400 --> 01:26:52,797
didn't happen um in our world. What
happened instead was the industry went

1624
01:26:52,880 --> 01:26:54,957
in the other direction.
It went basically in the model of the

1625
01:26:55,040 --> 01:26:57,677
calculating machine or the cash register.
And I I think practically

1626
01:26:57,760 --> 01:27:00,797
speaking that kind of had to be the case
because that was actually the technology

1627
01:27:00,880 --> 01:27:05,357
that was was practical at the time.
Um but but that's the path. And so what

1628
01:27:05,440 --> 01:27:08,957
what we all have experiences with up
to and including the iPhone in our pocket

1629
01:27:09,040 --> 01:27:12,557
is computers built on that basically
calculating machine model not the human

1630
01:27:12,640 --> 01:27:16,317
brain model. And so what that means
is computers as we have come to understand

1631
01:27:16,400 --> 01:27:20,557
them you know they're basically like you
know mathematical sants you know at best

1632
01:27:20,640 --> 01:27:23,517
right so they're like they're really
good at like you know doing lots of

1633
01:27:23,600 --> 01:27:26,877
mathematical calculations. They're
really good at executing these extremely

1634
01:27:26,960 --> 01:27:30,877
detailed computer programs. They're
hyper literal. Um, one of the things you

1635
01:27:30,960 --> 01:27:34,157
learn early when you're a programmer
is as a pro as the human programmer, you

1636
01:27:34,240 --> 01:27:36,637
have to get every single instruction
you give the computer correct because it

1637
01:27:36,720 --> 01:27:38,717
will do exactly what you tell it to do.

1638
01:27:38,800 --> 01:27:42,237
And and and bugs in computer programs
are always a mistake on the part of the

1639
01:27:42,320 --> 01:27:44,397
programmer. >> Interesting. >> You
never blame the computer. You always

1640
01:27:44,480 --> 01:27:47,597
blame the the programmer because that
that that's the nature of the thing that

1641
01:27:47,680 --> 01:27:50,477
you're dealing with.
>> One down score off and the whole thing

1642
01:27:50,560 --> 01:27:53,197
>> Yeah. Yeah. And it's the it's the
programmer's fault. Um, and if you talk

1643
01:27:53,280 --> 01:27:55,277
to any programmer, they'll agree with
this. will be like, "Yeah, if there's a

1644
01:27:55,360 --> 01:27:58,157
problem, it's it's my fault. I I did it."
I can't blame the computer. The

1645
01:27:58,240 --> 01:28:02,397
computer has no judgment. It has no
ability to interpret, synthesize, you

1646
01:28:02,480 --> 01:28:04,957
know, develop an independent
understanding of anything. It's just

1647
01:28:05,040 --> 01:28:08,717
it's literally just doing what I tell it
to do step by step. So, so for 80 years,

1648
01:28:08,800 --> 01:28:11,917
we've had this just, you know, this very
kind of hyperliteral, you know, kind of

1649
01:28:12,000 --> 01:28:14,477
kind of model computers. These are
called uh technically these are what are

1650
01:28:14,560 --> 01:28:18,717
called vonoyman machines based after
the mathematician John vonman. They run in

1651
01:28:18,800 --> 01:28:21,357
that way and they've been very
successful and very important and our

1652
01:28:21,440 --> 01:28:24,637
world has been shaped by them. But there
was always this other idea out there

1653
01:28:24,720 --> 01:28:27,837
which is okay, how about a completely
different approach which is based based

1654
01:28:27,920 --> 01:28:31,197
much more on how the human brain operates.
Um or or at least our our kind

1655
01:28:31,280 --> 01:28:33,917
of best understanding of how the human
brain operates, right? Because those

1656
01:28:34,000 --> 01:28:37,837
aren't the same thing. Um it basically
says, okay, what what if you could have

1657
01:28:37,920 --> 01:28:39,997
a computer instead of being hyperliteral,
what if you could have it

1658
01:28:40,080 --> 01:28:44,717
actually be conceptual, right?
Um and creative and able to synthesize

1659
01:28:44,800 --> 01:28:49,037
information, right? and able to draw
judgments and able to, you know, uh,

1660
01:28:49,120 --> 01:28:52,877
behave in, um, you know, in ways that
are not deterministic, but are rather

1661
01:28:52,960 --> 01:28:57,677
um, you know, creative, right? And and so
and and and and the applications for

1662
01:28:57,760 --> 01:29:01,917
this, of course, are endless. And so,
for example, the self-driving car, the

1663
01:29:02,000 --> 01:29:05,197
only way that you can make a you you
cannot program a computer with rules to

1664
01:29:05,280 --> 01:29:07,997
make it a self-driving car. You have
to do what Tesla and Whimo and these other

1665
01:29:08,080 --> 01:29:10,637
companies have done now. You have to use
AI, right? You have to use this other

1666
01:29:10,720 --> 01:29:13,997
architecture. uh and you have
to basically teach them how to recognize

1667
01:29:14,080 --> 01:29:17,037
objects in images at high speeds
the same way basically the same way the

1668
01:29:17,120 --> 01:29:19,597
human brain does and so those are those
are so-called neural networks running

1669
01:29:19,680 --> 01:29:22,477
inside >> so essentially
let the machine operate

1670
01:29:22,560 --> 01:29:25,757
based on priors you know we we almost

1671
01:29:25,840 --> 01:29:30,237
clipped a uh a boulder going up this
particular drive and so therefore this

1672
01:29:30,320 --> 01:29:34,477
shape that previously the machine didn't
recognize as a boulder it now introduces

1673
01:29:34,560 --> 01:29:38,077
to its catalog of boulders is that is that
>> yeah we've got a good good example or

1674
01:29:38,160 --> 01:29:41,597
let's even make it even even starker for
self-driving car um there's something in

1675
01:29:41,680 --> 01:29:45,117
the road, is it a small child or a or a
plastic shopping bag being blown by the

1676
01:29:45,200 --> 01:29:48,477
wind? >> Very important difference.

1677
01:29:48,560 --> 01:29:50,957
>> If it's a shopping bag, you you
definitely want to go straight through

1678
01:29:51,040 --> 01:29:53,597
it because if you deviate off course,
you might, you know, hit, you know,

1679
01:29:53,680 --> 01:29:55,997
you're going to make a fast, you know,
it's the same it's the same challenge we

1680
01:29:56,080 --> 01:29:58,157
have when we're driving. Like you don't
you don't want to swerve to avoid a

1681
01:29:58,240 --> 01:29:59,997
shopping bag because you might hit
something that you didn't see on the

1682
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:02,317
side. If it's a small child,
for sure you want to swerve,

1683
01:30:02,400 --> 01:30:06,077
>> right? Um and so, but it's very but
like in in that moment and you know, small

1684
01:30:06,160 --> 01:30:08,077
children come in different like
shapes and descriptions and are wearing

1685
01:30:08,160 --> 01:30:10,717
different kinds of clothes. They might
tumble onto the road the same way a bag

1686
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:12,157
would tumble. >> Yeah,
they might look like they're

1687
01:30:12,240 --> 01:30:14,877
tumbling. And by the way, they might
not be they might be wearing a Halloween

1688
01:30:14,960 --> 01:30:19,037
mask, right? So the face they might not
have a recognizable human face, right?

1689
01:30:19,120 --> 01:30:22,157
And it might or it might be a kid with,
you know, one leg, right? You definitely

1690
01:30:22,240 --> 01:30:24,637
want to not hit those, right? Like so.

1691
01:30:24,720 --> 01:30:28,717
So you you can't this is what basically
we figured out is you can't apply the

1692
01:30:28,800 --> 01:30:32,397
rules-based approach of a Vanoyman
machine to basically real life and

1693
01:30:32,480 --> 01:30:35,757
expect the computer to be in any way
understanding or resilient to change to

1694
01:30:35,840 --> 01:30:38,317
to basically things happening in real
life. And this is why there's always

1695
01:30:38,400 --> 01:30:41,197
been such a stark divide between what
the machine can do and what the and what

1696
01:30:41,280 --> 01:30:45,037
the human can do. Um and so basically
what's happened is in the last decade

1697
01:30:45,120 --> 01:30:48,237
that second type of computer, the neural
network based computer has started to

1698
01:30:48,320 --> 01:30:52,077
actually work. U it started to work
actually first interestingly in vision

1699
01:30:52,160 --> 01:30:54,637
>> recognizing objects and images which
is why the self-driving car is starting to

1700
01:30:54,720 --> 01:30:56,637
work. Um >> face recognition
face recognition. I

1701
01:30:56,720 --> 01:30:59,357
mean, when I was started off in visual
neuroscience, which is really my

1702
01:30:59,440 --> 01:31:02,317
original home, um, in neuroscience, the

1703
01:31:02,400 --> 01:31:04,957
idea that a computer or a camera could

1704
01:31:05,040 --> 01:31:06,637
do face recognition better than a human

1705
01:31:06,720 --> 01:31:10,717
was like a very low probability event.

1706
01:31:10,800 --> 01:31:14,157
Um, based on the technology we had
at the time, based on the understanding of

1707
01:31:14,240 --> 01:31:15,517
the face recognition cells and the

1708
01:31:15,600 --> 01:31:18,397
fusifform gyus, now you would

1709
01:31:18,480 --> 01:31:22,957
>> be smartest to put all your money on
the machine. Yeah. You know, you want to

1710
01:31:23,040 --> 01:31:27,037
find faces in airports, even with masks
on and you know, at profile versus

1711
01:31:27,120 --> 01:31:29,597
straight on machines can do it far

1712
01:31:29,680 --> 01:31:31,437
better than most all people. I mean,

1713
01:31:31,520 --> 01:31:34,317
there these super recognizers, but even

1714
01:31:34,400 --> 01:31:38,957
they can't match the best machines. Now,
10 years ago, what I just said was the

1715
01:31:39,040 --> 01:31:40,237
exact reverse, >> right? That's right.

1716
01:31:40,320 --> 01:31:43,197
>> Yeah. >> All right.
So, fa faces, handwriting,

1717
01:31:43,280 --> 01:31:46,717
um, right? Um, uh, and then voice,
right? Being able to understand voice.

1718
01:31:46,800 --> 01:31:49,837
Um, like if if you use just as a user,
if you use Google Docs, it has a

1719
01:31:49,920 --> 01:31:52,157
built-in voice transcription. They have
sort of the best industry leading kind

1720
01:31:52,240 --> 01:31:55,117
of voice transcription. If you use
voice transcription in Google Docs, it's

1721
01:31:55,200 --> 01:31:58,157
breathtakingly good. You you just speak
into it and it just like types what

1722
01:31:58,240 --> 01:32:00,077
you're what you're saying. >> Well,
that's good because in my phone,

1723
01:32:00,160 --> 01:32:02,717
every once in a while, I'll say, "I need
to go pick up a few things." And it'll

1724
01:32:02,800 --> 01:32:04,877
say, "I need to pick up a few thongs."

1725
01:32:04,960 --> 01:32:09,597
And so, um, Apple needs to get on board
uh, whatever the voice recognition is

1726
01:32:09,680 --> 01:32:14,157
that Google's using. >> Maybe it knows you
better than you think. Um, [laughter] so

1727
01:32:14,240 --> 01:32:16,637
>> that was not the topic I
was avoiding discussing, you know.

1728
01:32:16,720 --> 01:32:17,757
>> No. So, that's on the list, right?

1729
01:32:17,840 --> 01:32:21,677
That's on your your list. Um so um so
look there there's actually this there's

1730
01:32:21,760 --> 01:32:24,237
there's a reason actually why Google's
so good and Apple is not right now at

1731
01:32:24,320 --> 01:32:26,957
that kind of thing and it actually
goes to actually the it's actually an

1732
01:32:27,040 --> 01:32:28,637
ideological thing of all of all things

1733
01:32:28,720 --> 01:32:32,157
um uh Apple does not permit pooling of

1734
01:32:32,240 --> 01:32:37,117
data um for any purpose including
training AI whereas Google does um and

1735
01:32:37,200 --> 01:32:40,717
and Apple's just like stake their brand
on privacy and among that is sort of a

1736
01:32:40,800 --> 01:32:44,237
pledge that they don't like pull your data
um and so all of Apple's AI is like

1737
01:32:44,320 --> 01:32:47,757
AI that has to happen like locally
on your phone um whereas Google's AI can

1738
01:32:47,840 --> 01:32:50,557
happen in the cloud Right? It can happen
across pool data. Now, by the way, some

1739
01:32:50,640 --> 01:32:53,437
people think that that's bad because
they think pooling data is bad. But but

1740
01:32:53,520 --> 01:32:55,677
that that's an example of the shift
that's happening in the industry right

1741
01:32:55,760 --> 01:32:59,117
now, which is you have this separation
between the people who are embracing the

1742
01:32:59,200 --> 01:33:02,877
new way of training AIs and the people
who basically for whatever reason are not.

1743
01:33:02,960 --> 01:33:05,997
>> You um excuse me. Um you you say
that some people think it's bad because of

1744
01:33:06,080 --> 01:33:09,597
privacy issues or they think it's bad
because of the a reduced functionality

1745
01:33:09,680 --> 01:33:12,077
of that AI. >> Oh no.
So you're you're definitely going

1746
01:33:12,160 --> 01:33:16,717
to get So so um so there's three reasons
AI has started to work. One of them is

1747
01:33:16,800 --> 01:33:21,197
just simply larger data sets um larger
amounts of data. So so so specifically

1748
01:33:21,280 --> 01:33:24,797
the reason why objects and images are
now the reason machines are now better

1749
01:33:24,880 --> 01:33:28,397
than humans at recognizing objects,
images or recognizing faces is because

1750
01:33:28,480 --> 01:33:32,157
modern facial recognition AIs are
trained across all photos on the

1751
01:33:32,240 --> 01:33:35,357
internet of people, billions and billions
and billions of photos, right?

1752
01:33:35,440 --> 01:33:38,637
Unlimited number of photos of people
on the internet. Um attempts to train

1753
01:33:38,720 --> 01:33:41,677
facial recognition systems 10 or 20
years ago, they'd be trained on, you

1754
01:33:41,760 --> 01:33:45,837
know, thousands or tens of thousands of
photos. So the input data is simply much

1755
01:33:45,920 --> 01:33:47,757
more vast, >> much larger.
And this is the reason to

1756
01:33:47,840 --> 01:33:50,797
get to the conclusion on this. This is
the reason why chat GPT works so well is

1757
01:33:50,880 --> 01:33:54,317
chat GPT, one of the reasons chatgpt
works so well is it's trained on the

1758
01:33:54,400 --> 01:33:57,917
entire internet of text. And the entire
internet of text was not something that

1759
01:33:58,000 --> 01:34:01,517
was available for you to train an AI
on until it came to actually exist itself,

1760
01:34:01,600 --> 01:34:04,797
which is new in the last, you know,
basically decade. So in the case of face

1761
01:34:04,880 --> 01:34:09,037
recognition, I could see how having
a much larger input data set would be

1762
01:34:09,120 --> 01:34:13,037
beneficial if the goal is to recognize
mark injuries in space because you are

1763
01:34:13,120 --> 01:34:16,637
looking for signal to noise against
everything else, right? But in the case

1764
01:34:16,720 --> 01:34:19,037
of chat GPT, when you're pooling all

1765
01:34:19,120 --> 01:34:21,997
text on the internet and you ask chat

1766
01:34:22,080 --> 01:34:24,397
GPT to say um construct a paragraph

1767
01:34:24,480 --> 01:34:27,357
about um Mark Andre's prediction of the

1768
01:34:27,440 --> 01:34:29,597
future of human beings over the next 10

1769
01:34:29,680 --> 01:34:33,677
years um and the uh likely to be most

1770
01:34:33,760 --> 01:34:36,637
successful industries give chat JPT that

1771
01:34:36,720 --> 01:34:39,517
if it's pulling across all text, how

1772
01:34:39,600 --> 01:34:42,157
does it know what is authentically Mark

1773
01:34:42,240 --> 01:34:44,317
Andre's text? Because in the case of

1774
01:34:44,400 --> 01:34:47,117
face recognition, you have a um you've

1775
01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:50,077
got a standard to work from a a verified

1776
01:34:50,160 --> 01:34:53,277
image versus everything else. Um in the

1777
01:34:53,360 --> 01:34:57,117
case of text, um you have to make
sure that what you're starting with is

1778
01:34:57,200 --> 01:35:01,277
verified text from your mouth. So, um,
which makes sense if it's coming from

1779
01:35:01,360 --> 01:35:03,757
video, but then if that video is, um,

1780
01:35:03,840 --> 01:35:06,957
deep faked, all of a sudden what's true,

1781
01:35:07,040 --> 01:35:11,357
your your your valid Mark Andrees is of

1782
01:35:11,440 --> 01:35:15,997
question and then everything chat GPT
is producing that is then of question,

1783
01:35:16,080 --> 01:35:19,197
>> right? So, I would say there's a before
and after thing here. There's like a

1784
01:35:19,280 --> 01:35:22,717
before there's like a before chat GPT
and after GPT question, right? Because

1785
01:35:22,800 --> 01:35:26,397
the existence of GPT itself change
changes changes the the answer. So

1786
01:35:26,480 --> 01:35:29,437
before chat GPT, so the reason the version
you're using today is trained on

1787
01:35:29,520 --> 01:35:32,477
data up till September 2021.
It's they're caught off by the train their

1788
01:35:32,560 --> 01:35:35,837
training set up till September 2021
almost all text on the internet was

1789
01:35:35,920 --> 01:35:39,517
written by a human being. Um and then
most of that was written by people under

1790
01:35:39,600 --> 01:35:42,637
their own names. Some of it wasn't,
but a lot but a lot of it was. And why you

1791
01:35:42,720 --> 01:35:45,037
know it's from me is because it was
published in a magazine under my name or

1792
01:35:45,120 --> 01:35:48,397
it's a podcast transcript and it's
it's under my name. And and generally

1793
01:35:48,480 --> 01:35:51,037
speaking, if you just did a search
on like what are things Mark Anderson has

1794
01:35:51,120 --> 01:35:55,197
written and said, 90 plus% of that would
be would be correct. And there look,

1795
01:35:55,280 --> 01:35:58,237
somebody might have written a fake,
you know, parody article or something like

1796
01:35:58,320 --> 01:36:01,357
that, but like not that many people
were spending that much time writing like

1797
01:36:01,440 --> 01:36:03,117
fake articles about like
things that I said. Right.

1798
01:36:03,200 --> 01:36:04,797
>> So many people can pretend to be you.

1799
01:36:04,880 --> 01:36:07,197
>> Exactly. Right. And so generally
speaking, you can you can kind of get

1800
01:36:07,280 --> 01:36:10,157
your arms around the idea that there's
a corpus of material associated with me or

1801
01:36:10,240 --> 01:36:12,717
by the way, same thing with you. There's
a corpus of of YouTube transcripts and

1802
01:36:12,800 --> 01:36:15,517
other your academic papers and talks
you've given and you can kind of get

1803
01:36:15,600 --> 01:36:17,597
your hands around that. And that's
that's how these systems are trained.

1804
01:36:17,680 --> 01:36:19,837
They they take all that data collectively.
They put it in there and

1805
01:36:19,920 --> 01:36:23,277
and that's why this works as well as it
does. And that's why if you ask chat GPT

1806
01:36:23,360 --> 01:36:27,837
to speak or write like me or like you
or like you know somebody else it it will

1807
01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:30,797
actually generally do a really good job
because it has that it has all of our

1808
01:36:30,880 --> 01:36:35,357
prior uh text in it in its training data.
Um that said from here on out this

1809
01:36:35,440 --> 01:36:38,157
gets harder and of course the reason
this gets harder is because now we have

1810
01:36:38,240 --> 01:36:42,157
AI that can create text and we have
AI that can create text at industrial

1811
01:36:42,240 --> 01:36:45,197
scale. >> Is it watermarked
as AI generated text?

1812
01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:47,037
>> No. >> How hard would it be to do that?

1813
01:36:47,120 --> 01:36:50,157
>> I think it's impossible. Um I think
it's impossible. There are people who are

1814
01:36:50,240 --> 01:36:52,797
trying to do that. This is a hot topic
in the classroom. I was just talking to

1815
01:36:52,880 --> 01:36:55,677
a friend who's got like a 14-y old kid
in in in a class and there's like these

1816
01:36:55,760 --> 01:36:59,117
recurring scandals like every kid in
the class is using chat GPT to like write

1817
01:36:59,200 --> 01:37:04,077
their essays or to help them write their
essays. Um and then the um uh the the

1818
01:37:04,160 --> 01:37:07,597
teacher is using one of there's a tool
that you can use that it purports to be

1819
01:37:07,680 --> 01:37:10,797
able to tell you, you know, whether
something was written by Chad GPT, but

1820
01:37:10,880 --> 01:37:14,717
it's like only right like 60% of the time.
And so there was this case where

1821
01:37:14,800 --> 01:37:17,997
this student wrote an essay where their
parent sat and watched them write the

1822
01:37:18,080 --> 01:37:21,357
essay and then they submitted it
and this tool got the conclusion incorrect

1823
01:37:21,440 --> 01:37:24,157
and then the student feels outraged
because he got unfairly cheated, but the

1824
01:37:24,240 --> 01:37:26,637
teacher is like, "Well, you're all using
the tool." Then it turns out there's

1825
01:37:26,720 --> 01:37:30,957
another tool that basically you feed
in text and it actually um it sort of uh

1826
01:37:31,040 --> 01:37:33,597
it's it's a it's called they call it
a summarizer, but what it really is is

1827
01:37:33,680 --> 01:37:36,957
it's a cheating mechanism to to
basically um just shuffle the words

1828
01:37:37,040 --> 01:37:40,557
around enough so that it sheds whatever
characteristics were associated with AI.

1829
01:37:40,640 --> 01:37:43,997
So there's like a an arms race going on
in educational settings right now around

1830
01:37:44,080 --> 01:37:47,357
this exact question. I I don't I don't
think it's possible to do there are

1831
01:37:47,440 --> 01:37:49,197
people working on the watermarking.
I don't think it's possible to do the

1832
01:37:49,280 --> 01:37:51,677
watermarking. And I think it's just kind
of obvious why it's not possible to do

1833
01:37:51,760 --> 01:37:55,117
that, which is you can just
read the output for yourself.

1834
01:37:55,200 --> 01:37:58,397
It's it's really good. How are you
actually going to tell the difference

1835
01:37:58,480 --> 01:38:00,797
between that and something
that a real person wrote?

1836
01:38:00,880 --> 01:38:03,917
>> And then by the way, you can also ask
chat GPT to write in different styles,

1837
01:38:04,000 --> 01:38:06,477
right? So you can tell it like,
you know, write in the style of a

1838
01:38:06,560 --> 01:38:09,517
15-year-old, right? you can tell it
to write in the style of, you know, a

1839
01:38:09,600 --> 01:38:12,397
non-native English speaker, right? Or if
you're a non-native English speaker, you

1840
01:38:12,480 --> 01:38:15,277
can tell it to write in the style
of an English speaker, uh, native English

1841
01:38:15,360 --> 01:38:20,077
speaker, right? And so, the tool itself
will help you evade. So, I I I I don't

1842
01:38:20,160 --> 01:38:22,477
think that I think there's a lot
of people who are going to want to

1843
01:38:22,560 --> 01:38:26,077
distinguish, right, quote, real versus
fake. I I think those days are I think

1844
01:38:26,160 --> 01:38:27,837
those days are over.
>> Genie's out of the bottle.

1845
01:38:27,920 --> 01:38:28,877
>> Genie's completely out of the bottle.

1846
01:38:28,960 --> 01:38:31,917
And and by and by the way, I actually
think this is good. This doesn't map to

1847
01:38:32,000 --> 01:38:34,477
this doesn't map to my worldview of how
we use this technology anyway, which

1848
01:38:34,560 --> 01:38:38,797
which we can come back to. Um,
so there's that. So, so, so there's that.

1849
01:38:38,880 --> 01:38:41,277
So, and and then there's the problem
therefore of like the so-called deep

1850
01:38:41,360 --> 01:38:43,917
fake problem. So, then there's
the problem of like deliberate basically

1851
01:38:44,000 --> 01:38:47,197
manipulation. And that's like, you know,
one of your one one of your many

1852
01:38:47,280 --> 01:38:49,117
enemies, [laughter] one of your

1853
01:38:49,200 --> 01:38:54,717
increasingly long list of enemies like
mine. Um, who basically is like, "Wow, I

1854
01:38:54,800 --> 01:38:55,917
know how I'm going to get him, right?

1855
01:38:56,000 --> 01:38:58,877
I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna create
I'm gonna I'm gonna use it to create

1856
01:38:58,960 --> 01:39:01,197
something that looks like a Hebrewman
transcript, and I'm gonna have him say

1857
01:39:01,280 --> 01:39:02,557
all these bad things or a video."

1858
01:39:02,640 --> 01:39:04,317
>> Or a video or a video.
I mean, Joe Rogan

1859
01:39:04,400 --> 01:39:08,877
and I were deep faked in a video um I
don't want to flag people to it. I won't

1860
01:39:08,960 --> 01:39:10,557
so I won't talk about what it was about,

1861
01:39:10,640 --> 01:39:14,477
but um where it for all the world looked

1862
01:39:14,560 --> 01:39:18,077
like a conversation that we were
having and we never had that specific

1863
01:39:18,160 --> 01:39:19,757
conversation. >> Yeah,
that's right. So that's going to

1864
01:39:19,840 --> 01:39:21,997
happen for sure. And so there there's
so what there's going to need to be is

1865
01:39:22,080 --> 01:39:26,077
there's need to be basically registries
where basically you you like in your

1866
01:39:26,160 --> 01:39:30,797
case you will you will um submit your
legitimate uh content into a registry

1867
01:39:30,880 --> 01:39:34,317
under your unique cryptographic key
right and then basically there will be a

1868
01:39:34,400 --> 01:39:36,957
way to check against that registry to see
whether that was the real thing. And

1869
01:39:37,040 --> 01:39:39,757
I think this needs to be done for for
sure for public figures. It needs to be

1870
01:39:39,840 --> 01:39:42,317
done for politicians. It needs
to be done for you know music.

1871
01:39:42,400 --> 01:39:45,597
>> What about taking what's already out
there and being able to authenticate it

1872
01:39:45,680 --> 01:39:50,157
or not? In the same way that um many
times per week I get asked is this your

1873
01:39:50,240 --> 01:39:54,477
account about some a direct message that
somebody got on Instagram and I always

1874
01:39:54,560 --> 01:39:58,957
tell them look I only have the one
account this one verified account.

1875
01:39:59,040 --> 01:40:03,277
Although now with the advent
of pay-to-play verification makes it a

1876
01:40:03,360 --> 01:40:07,037
little less potent as a you know
security blanket for um knowing if it's

1877
01:40:07,120 --> 01:40:11,517
not this account um you know then it's
not me. But in any case, these accounts

1878
01:40:11,600 --> 01:40:13,277
pop up all the time pretending to be me.

1879
01:40:13,360 --> 01:40:18,477
And I'm I'm, you know, relatively low
on the on the scale, not not um not low,

1880
01:40:18,560 --> 01:40:22,397
but relatively low on the scale to say
like a um you know, like a Beyonce or

1881
01:40:22,480 --> 01:40:25,677
something like that who has, you know,
hundreds of millions of followers. So,

1882
01:40:25,760 --> 01:40:31,037
um, is there a system in mind where
people could go in and and verify text?

1883
01:40:31,120 --> 01:40:32,637
You know, click yes or no, this is me.

1884
01:40:32,720 --> 01:40:36,557
This is not me. And even there, there's
the opportunity for people to fudge to

1885
01:40:36,640 --> 01:40:39,517
eliminate things about themselves that
they don't want out there by saying no,

1886
01:40:39,600 --> 01:40:42,397
that's not me. It wasn't I didn't
actually say that or create that.

1887
01:40:42,480 --> 01:40:43,837
>> Yeah. No, that's right.
And so, yeah, so

1888
01:40:43,920 --> 01:40:45,997
technologically, this is actually
pretty straightforward. So, the way to

1889
01:40:46,080 --> 01:40:48,477
implement this technologically is with
public key, what's called public key

1890
01:40:48,560 --> 01:40:51,357
cryptography, which is the basis for how,
you know, cryptography information

1891
01:40:51,440 --> 01:40:54,157
is secured in the world today. Okay.
And and so basically what you would the

1892
01:40:54,240 --> 01:40:56,797
implementation form of this would be
you would like you would pick whatever is

1893
01:40:56,880 --> 01:40:59,117
your most trusted channel and let's say
let's say it's your YouTube channel as

1894
01:40:59,200 --> 01:41:01,757
an example where just everybody just
knows that it's you on your YouTube

1895
01:41:01,840 --> 01:41:04,637
channel because you've been doing it for
10 years or whatever and it's just obvious

1896
01:41:04,720 --> 01:41:07,917
>> and you would just publish like in the
about me page on YouTube you would just

1897
01:41:08,000 --> 01:41:11,357
publish your your your public
cryptographic key that's unique to you

1898
01:41:11,440 --> 01:41:14,557
>> right and then anytime anybody wants
to check to see whether any piece of

1899
01:41:14,640 --> 01:41:18,717
content is actually you they go to a
registry in the cloud somewhere and they

1900
01:41:18,800 --> 01:41:22,477
basically submit they basically say okay
is this him and then they can basically

1901
01:41:22,560 --> 01:41:26,477
you to see whether somebody with your
public key you had actually certified

1902
01:41:26,560 --> 01:41:28,637
that this was something
that that you made.

1903
01:41:28,720 --> 01:41:32,077
>> Um now who runs that registry
is an interesting question. Um if that

1904
01:41:32,160 --> 01:41:34,637
registry is run by the government we
will call that the min M ministry of

1905
01:41:34,720 --> 01:41:38,877
truth. I think that's probably a bad idea.
Um if that registry is run by a

1906
01:41:38,960 --> 01:41:41,917
company um we would you know call
that basically the equivalent of like a

1907
01:41:42,000 --> 01:41:43,597
credit bureau or something like that.

1908
01:41:43,680 --> 01:41:46,477
Maybe that's how it happens. The problem
with that is that company now becomes

1909
01:41:46,560 --> 01:41:49,517
hacking target number one, right,
of every bad person on earth, right?

1910
01:41:49,600 --> 01:41:52,077
Because you can, you know, if anybody
breaks into that company, you know, they

1911
01:41:52,160 --> 01:41:53,597
can they can they can
fake all kinds of things.

1912
01:41:53,680 --> 01:41:55,837
>> Yeah. They own the truth, >> right?
They own the truth, right? And

1913
01:41:55,920 --> 01:41:58,317
and by the way, insider threat also
their employees can monkey with it,

1914
01:41:58,400 --> 01:42:01,117
right? So you have to really trust
that company. Um the third way to do it is

1915
01:42:01,200 --> 01:42:04,237
with a blockchain, right? And so this
with the crypto blockchain technology,

1916
01:42:04,320 --> 01:42:07,837
you could have a distributed system,
basically distributed database uh in the

1917
01:42:07,920 --> 01:42:11,277
cloud that is run through a blockchain
and then it it it it implements this

1918
01:42:11,360 --> 01:42:15,037
cryptography and the certification
process. What about quantum internet? Um

1919
01:42:15,120 --> 01:42:17,917
is that another way to encrypt these
things? I know most of our listeners are

1920
01:42:18,000 --> 01:42:20,877
probably not familiar with quantum
internet, but um put simply, it's a way

1921
01:42:20,960 --> 01:42:24,637
to um secure communications on the
internet. Uh let's just leave it at

1922
01:42:24,720 --> 01:42:27,677
that. Um it's sophisticated and we'll
probably do a whole episode about this

1923
01:42:27,760 --> 01:42:30,477
at some point, but maybe you have
a succinct way of describing quantum

1924
01:42:30,560 --> 01:42:35,357
internet, but um that would be better
and if so, please please offer it up.

1925
01:42:35,440 --> 01:42:40,077
But is quantum internet going to be one
way to secure these kinds of um data and

1926
01:42:40,160 --> 01:42:43,437
resources? maybe in in in the in the
future, years in the future. We don't

1927
01:42:43,520 --> 01:42:46,397
yet have working quantum computers
in practice. So, it's not it's not

1928
01:42:46,480 --> 01:42:49,037
currently something you could do,
but maybe maybe in a decade or two.

1929
01:42:49,120 --> 01:42:51,997
>> Um, tell me, I'm going to take a stab
at defining quantum internet in one

1930
01:42:52,080 --> 01:42:54,877
sentence. It's a way in which if
anyone were to try and peer in on a

1931
01:42:54,960 --> 01:42:56,957
conversation on the internet essentially

1932
01:42:57,040 --> 01:42:59,037
um would be futile because of the way

1933
01:42:59,120 --> 01:43:03,037
that um uh quantum internet uh changes

1934
01:43:03,120 --> 01:43:06,557
the way that the communication
is happening so fast and so many times in

1935
01:43:06,640 --> 01:43:09,597
any one conversation. It's essentially
changing the translation or the

1936
01:43:09,680 --> 01:43:12,797
language. so fast that there's just no
way to keep up with it. Is that more or

1937
01:43:12,880 --> 01:43:16,637
less accurate? >> Yeah, conceivably. Yeah.
Not. Yeah. Not yet, but yeah, someday.

1938
01:43:16,720 --> 01:43:20,797
>> So, going back to AI, you know, most
people who hear about AI are afraid of

1939
01:43:20,880 --> 01:43:25,357
AI. >> Um, um, well, I I think
most people who aren't informed,

1940
01:43:25,440 --> 01:43:27,837
>> this goes back to our
elites versus masses thing.

1941
01:43:27,920 --> 01:43:29,757
>> Oh, interesting. Well, I heard you say

1942
01:43:29,840 --> 01:43:33,997
that, um, you know, um, and this is from

1943
01:43:34,080 --> 01:43:37,437
a really wonderful tweet thread that we
will link in the show note captions that

1944
01:43:37,520 --> 01:43:42,477
that you put out um, not long ago. and
that I've read now several times um and

1945
01:43:42,560 --> 01:43:45,917
that everyone really should take the time
to read it. Probably takes about um

1946
01:43:46,000 --> 01:43:47,677
20 minutes to read it carefully and to

1947
01:43:47,760 --> 01:43:49,437
think about each piece and it's I highly

1948
01:43:49,520 --> 01:43:53,437
recommend it. Um but you said um and I'm

1949
01:43:53,520 --> 01:43:57,517
quoting here, let's address uh the fifth

1950
01:43:57,600 --> 01:44:01,597
the one thing I actually agree with which
is AI will make it easier for bad

1951
01:44:01,680 --> 01:44:03,917
people to do bad things. >> Yeah.

1952
01:44:04,000 --> 01:44:08,157
>> Yeah. Well, so so yes. So um well so so
so yeah. So, so first of all, there is a

1953
01:44:08,240 --> 01:44:10,957
general freakout happening around AI.
I think it's primarily, it's one of these,

1954
01:44:11,040 --> 01:44:13,437
again, it's an elite driven freakout.
I don't think the man in the street knows

1955
01:44:13,520 --> 01:44:16,237
knows cares or feels one way or the other.
I think it's just not a relevant

1956
01:44:16,320 --> 01:44:18,957
concept, and it's probably just sounds
like science fiction. Um, so there

1957
01:44:19,040 --> 01:44:21,517
there's there's I think there's
there's an elite driven freakout that's

1958
01:44:21,600 --> 01:44:25,277
happening right now. Um, I think that
elite driven freakout has many aspects

1959
01:44:25,360 --> 01:44:29,117
to it that I think are incorrect, which
is not surprising. I would think that,

1960
01:44:29,200 --> 01:44:31,517
given that I think the elites are
incorrect about a lot of things, but I

1961
01:44:31,600 --> 01:44:34,557
think they're very wrong about a number
of things they're saying about AI. Uh

1962
01:44:34,640 --> 01:44:37,437
but that said, look, it's a it's
a this is a very powerful new technology,

1963
01:44:37,520 --> 01:44:41,117
right? This is like a new general
purpose like thinking technology, right?

1964
01:44:41,200 --> 01:44:44,157
So like what if machines could think,
right? And what if you could use

1965
01:44:44,240 --> 01:44:47,437
machines that think and what if you
could have them think for you? There's

1966
01:44:47,520 --> 01:44:51,277
obviously a lot of good that could come
from that. Um but also people, you know,

1967
01:44:51,360 --> 01:44:54,877
criminals could use them to plan better,
you know, crimes. Um you know,

1968
01:44:54,960 --> 01:44:57,677
terrorists could use them to plan better
terror attacks and so forth. And so

1969
01:44:57,760 --> 01:45:01,837
these are going to be tools that bad
people can use to do bad things for sure.

1970
01:45:01,920 --> 01:45:03,597
Um I can think of some ways that AI

1971
01:45:03,680 --> 01:45:05,517
could be leveraged to do fantastic

1972
01:45:05,600 --> 01:45:10,317
things like um in the realm of medicine

1973
01:45:10,400 --> 01:45:14,717
um an AI pathologist perhaps can scan

1974
01:45:14,800 --> 01:45:18,157
10,000 slides of hisytologology and find

1975
01:45:18,240 --> 01:45:21,517
the one microtumor cellular aberration

1976
01:45:21,600 --> 01:45:23,837
that would turn into a full-blown tumor.

1977
01:45:23,920 --> 01:45:27,197
Whereas the um even mildly fatigued or

1978
01:45:27,280 --> 01:45:32,157
well-rested human pathologists,
as great as they come, might miss that.

1979
01:45:32,240 --> 01:45:35,117
>> Right. >> And perhaps
the best solution is for

1980
01:45:35,200 --> 01:45:38,637
both of them to do it. And then for the
human to verify what the AI has found

1981
01:45:38,720 --> 01:45:40,157
and vice versa, >> right? That's right.

1982
01:45:40,240 --> 01:45:43,437
>> Right. And that's just one example.
I mean, I can come up with thousands of

1983
01:45:43,520 --> 01:45:46,077
examples where this would be wonderful.

1984
01:45:46,160 --> 01:45:49,757
Um >> I give another one by medicine.
Um so you're talking about some analytic

1985
01:45:49,840 --> 01:45:52,077
result which is good and important. And
the other is like the machines are going

1986
01:45:52,160 --> 01:45:54,637
to be much better bedside manner.

1987
01:45:54,720 --> 01:45:57,197
>> They're going to be much better at
dealing with the patient. And we already

1988
01:45:57,280 --> 01:45:59,357
know there's already been a study
there's already been a study on this. So

1989
01:45:59,440 --> 01:46:04,077
there was already a study done on this um
uh where um there was a a study team

1990
01:46:04,160 --> 01:46:06,877
that scraped thousands of medical
questions off of an internet forum and

1991
01:46:06,960 --> 01:46:09,997
then they had real doctors answer
the questions and then they had basically

1992
01:46:10,080 --> 01:46:13,837
GPT4 answer the questions and then they
had another panel of doctors score the

1993
01:46:13,920 --> 01:46:17,357
responses. Right? So there were no
patients experimented on here. This was

1994
01:46:17,440 --> 01:46:20,397
a test contained within
the within the medical world.

1995
01:46:20,480 --> 01:46:23,677
And then the the the the panel of the
judges the panel of doctors who are the

1996
01:46:23,760 --> 01:46:25,277
judges scored the answers on both

1997
01:46:25,360 --> 01:46:27,277
factual accuracy um and on bedside

1998
01:46:27,360 --> 01:46:30,797
manner um on empathy. Um and the GPT4

1999
01:46:30,880 --> 01:46:36,637
was was equal or better on most of the
factual questions analytically already

2000
01:46:36,720 --> 01:46:40,237
um and it's not even a specifically
trained medical AI um but it was

2001
01:46:40,320 --> 01:46:42,797
overwhelmingly better um on empathy.

2002
01:46:42,880 --> 01:46:45,597
>> Amazing. >> Right.
Um and so and and you know I

2003
01:46:45,680 --> 01:46:48,317
don't think yeah I don't do you do
you treat patient do you treat patients

2004
01:46:48,400 --> 01:46:49,917
directly in your work? You don't. Yeah.

2005
01:46:50,000 --> 01:46:52,477
You don't we do we run
clinical trials, right?

2006
01:46:52,560 --> 01:46:55,117
>> Um but I don't I don't
do any direct clinical.

2007
01:46:55,200 --> 01:46:58,877
>> So I I know I have no direct experience
of this, but from the surgeons I from

2008
01:46:58,960 --> 01:47:01,997
like if you talk to surgeons or you
talk to people who train surgeons, what

2009
01:47:02,080 --> 01:47:04,717
they'll tell you is like surgeons need
to have an emotional remove from their

2010
01:47:04,800 --> 01:47:07,917
patients in order to do a good job with
the surgery. The side effect of that and

2011
01:47:08,000 --> 01:47:10,397
by the way, look, it's a hell of a job
to have to go in and tell somebody that

2012
01:47:10,480 --> 01:47:12,637
they're going to die, right? Or that
they have so they're never going to

2013
01:47:12,720 --> 01:47:15,277
recover, they're never going to walk
again or whatever it is. And so there's

2014
01:47:15,360 --> 01:47:18,157
a there's sort of something inherent
in that job where they need to keep an

2015
01:47:18,240 --> 01:47:21,597
emotional reserve from the patient,
right, to be able to do the job and it's

2016
01:47:21,680 --> 01:47:23,917
expected of them as professionals.

2017
01:47:24,000 --> 01:47:27,917
The machine has no such limitation. Like
the machine can be as sympathetic as you

2018
01:47:28,000 --> 01:47:31,197
want it to be for as long as you want it
to be. It can be infinitely sympathetic.

2019
01:47:31,280 --> 01:47:33,677
It's happy to talk to you at 4 in the
morning. It's happy to sympathize with

2020
01:47:33,760 --> 01:47:37,837
you. It's and by the way, it's not just
sympathizing you in in the way that oh,

2021
01:47:37,920 --> 01:47:40,077
it's just lying, you know, it's just
making up words to lie to you to make

2022
01:47:40,160 --> 01:47:43,437
you feel good. It can also sympathize
with you in terms of helping you through

2023
01:47:43,520 --> 01:47:46,477
all the things that you can actually
do to improve your situation, right? And

2024
01:47:46,560 --> 01:47:50,877
so, you know, boy, like if you be, you
know, can you keep a patient actually on

2025
01:47:50,960 --> 01:47:52,317
track with a physical therapy program?

2026
01:47:52,400 --> 01:47:55,117
Can you keep a patient on track with
a nutritional program? Can you keep a

2027
01:47:55,200 --> 01:47:56,957
patient off of drugs or alcohol, right?

2028
01:47:57,040 --> 01:48:00,397
And if they have a machine medical
companion that's with them all the time

2029
01:48:00,480 --> 01:48:03,597
that they're talking to all the time
that's infinitely patient, infinitely

2030
01:48:03,680 --> 01:48:06,317
wise, right? Infinitely loving, right?

2031
01:48:06,400 --> 01:48:08,477
and and it's just going to be there
all the time and it's going to be

2032
01:48:08,560 --> 01:48:10,477
encouraging and it's going to be saying,
you know, you did such a great job

2033
01:48:10,560 --> 01:48:12,717
yesterday. I know you
can do this again today.

2034
01:48:12,800 --> 01:48:15,757
>> Cognitive behavioral therapy is an
obvious fit here. These things are going

2035
01:48:15,840 --> 01:48:19,357
to be great at CBT and that's that's
already starting. You can already use

2036
01:48:19,440 --> 01:48:23,277
Chat GPT as a as a CBT therapist if you
want. It's actually quite good at it.

2037
01:48:23,360 --> 01:48:26,557
And so so there's there's a universe
here that's it goes to what you said.

2038
01:48:26,640 --> 01:48:29,437
There's a universe here that's opening
up which is what what I believe is it's

2039
01:48:29,520 --> 01:48:32,797
it's partnership between man and machine,
right? It's it's a symbiotic

2040
01:48:32,880 --> 01:48:36,477
relationship, not an adversarial
relationship. And so that exactly the

2041
01:48:36,560 --> 01:48:39,357
doctor is going to pair with the AI
to do all the things that you described,

2042
01:48:39,440 --> 01:48:42,797
but the patient is also going to pair
with the AI and and I think it's I think

2043
01:48:42,880 --> 01:48:46,477
I think this this partnership that's
going to emerge is going to lead among

2044
01:48:46,560 --> 01:48:48,957
other things to actually
much better health outcomes. I

2045
01:48:49,040 --> 01:48:53,517
>> mean, I've relied for so much
of my life on excellent mentors,

2046
01:48:53,600 --> 01:48:56,797
>> right? >> Um from a very
young age and still now

2047
01:48:56,880 --> 01:48:59,437
>> um in order to make best decisions

2048
01:48:59,520 --> 01:49:02,477
possible with the information I had. um

2049
01:49:02,560 --> 01:49:06,877
and rarely were they available at four
in the morning sometimes um but not on a

2050
01:49:06,960 --> 01:49:08,717
frequent basis and they fatigue like

2051
01:49:08,800 --> 01:49:11,437
anybody else and they have their own

2052
01:49:11,520 --> 01:49:13,997
stuff like anybody else baggage events

2053
01:49:14,080 --> 01:49:19,357
in their life etc. Um what you're
describing is a sort of AI coach or

2054
01:49:19,440 --> 01:49:20,877
therapist of sorts

2055
01:49:20,960 --> 01:49:22,957
>> that hopefully would learn to identify

2056
01:49:23,040 --> 01:49:28,477
our best self and encourage us to be our
best self. And um when I say best self,

2057
01:49:28,560 --> 01:49:31,677
I don't mean that in any kind of pop
psychology way. I mean, I could imagine

2058
01:49:31,760 --> 01:49:35,597
AI very easily knowing, you know,
how well I slept the night before and what

2059
01:49:35,680 --> 01:49:39,597
types of good or bad decisions I tend
to make at 2:00 in the afternoon, uh, when

2060
01:49:39,680 --> 01:49:44,237
I've only had 5 hours of sleep or maybe
just less REM sleep the night before. It

2061
01:49:44,320 --> 01:49:46,877
might encourage me to take a little
more time to think about something.

2062
01:49:46,960 --> 01:49:49,037
>> Yeah. >> Might give me
a little, uh, tap on the

2063
01:49:49,120 --> 01:49:53,117
wrist through a device that no one else
would detect to um, you know, refrain

2064
01:49:53,200 --> 01:49:55,597
from something. You know,
>> it's never going to judge you.

2065
01:49:55,680 --> 01:49:57,997
>> It's never going to be resentful. It's
never going to be upset that you didn't

2066
01:49:58,080 --> 01:50:01,597
listen to it, [laughter] >> right?
It's never going to go on vacation.

2067
01:50:01,680 --> 01:50:04,157
>> It's going to be there for you. Like
I think this is the this is the way people

2068
01:50:04,240 --> 01:50:06,237
are going to live. It's going to start
with kids and then over time it's going

2069
01:50:06,320 --> 01:50:08,637
to be adults. I think the way people are
going to live is they're going to have a

2070
01:50:08,720 --> 01:50:10,957
Exactly. friend, therapist, companion,

2071
01:50:11,040 --> 01:50:15,917
mentor, coach, teacher, right, assistant.
And that that that that or or

2072
01:50:16,000 --> 01:50:18,317
by the way, maybe multiple of those. It
may be that we're actually talking about

2073
01:50:18,400 --> 01:50:21,037
six like different personas interacting,
which is a whole another possibility,

2074
01:50:21,120 --> 01:50:22,877
but they're going to have a committee.

2075
01:50:22,960 --> 01:50:23,997
Yeah. Yeah. Committee. Yeah. Yeah.

2076
01:50:24,080 --> 01:50:25,357
Exactly. Actually different personas.

2077
01:50:25,440 --> 01:50:27,437
And maybe by the way, when there are
difficult decisions to be made in your

2078
01:50:27,520 --> 01:50:30,957
life, maybe what you want to hear is the
argument among the different personas.

2079
01:50:31,040 --> 01:50:34,557
Um, and so you're just going to get
you're just going to grow up. You're

2080
01:50:34,640 --> 01:50:37,357
just going to have this in your life
and you're going to always be able to talk

2081
01:50:37,440 --> 01:50:40,317
to it and always be able to learn from
it and always be able to help it make,

2082
01:50:40,400 --> 01:50:43,997
you know, and like it's just it's going
to it's it's going to be a symbiotic

2083
01:50:44,080 --> 01:50:45,997
relationship. It's going to I think
it's be much better way to live. I think

2084
01:50:46,080 --> 01:50:47,517
people are going to get a lot out of it.

2085
01:50:47,600 --> 01:50:49,677
>> What modalities will it include? So, I

2086
01:50:49,760 --> 01:50:52,717
can imagine um my phone has this um

2087
01:50:52,800 --> 01:50:55,277
engine in it uh this AI companion and

2088
01:50:55,360 --> 01:50:57,757
I'm listening in headphones as I walk

2089
01:50:57,840 --> 01:51:02,477
into work and it's giving me some um not
just encouragement, some warnings, some

2090
01:51:02,560 --> 01:51:06,237
um thoughts that uh things that I might
ask Mark Andre today that I might not

2091
01:51:06,320 --> 01:51:10,397
have thought of. Uh and so on.
Um I could also imagine it having a more

2092
01:51:10,480 --> 01:51:15,277
human form. I could imagine it being uh
tactile, having some haptic, so tapping

2093
01:51:15,360 --> 01:51:18,397
to remind me so that it's not going
to enter our conversation in a way that

2094
01:51:18,480 --> 01:51:22,957
that it interferes or distracts you,
but I would be aware. Oh, right. Um, you

2095
01:51:23,040 --> 01:51:26,877
know, things of that sort. I mean,
how many different modalities are we going

2096
01:51:26,960 --> 01:51:31,997
to allow these AI coaches to approach
us with? And is anyone actually thinking

2097
01:51:32,080 --> 01:51:33,837
about the hardware piece right now?

2098
01:51:33,920 --> 01:51:36,477
Because I'm hearing a lot about
the software piece. Uh, what does the

2099
01:51:36,560 --> 01:51:39,117
hardware piece look like? >> Yeah.
So, the entrep this is where

2100
01:51:39,200 --> 01:51:41,597
Silicon Valley is going to kick in.
So the entrepreneurial community is going

2101
01:51:41,680 --> 01:51:44,637
to try all of those, right? And by
the way, the big companies and and and

2102
01:51:44,720 --> 01:51:47,117
startups are going to try all those.
And so there's obviously there's big

2103
01:51:47,200 --> 01:51:49,757
companies that are working, you know,
the big companies that have talked about

2104
01:51:49,840 --> 01:51:53,277
a variety of these including, you know,
heads-up displays, AR, VR, you know,

2105
01:51:53,360 --> 01:51:56,397
kinds of things. Um, you know, there's
lots of people doing voice, you know,

2106
01:51:56,480 --> 01:52:00,237
the voice thing is voice is a real
possibility. It may just be an earpiece.

2107
01:52:00,320 --> 01:52:04,477
Um, there's a new startup that just
unveiled a new thing, um, where it's

2108
01:52:04,560 --> 01:52:07,597
actually they actually project.
So you'll have like a pendant you wear on

2109
01:52:07,680 --> 01:52:09,997
like a necklace and it actually like
projects like literally it will like

2110
01:52:10,080 --> 01:52:13,037
project images like on your hand or like
on the table or on the wall in front of

2111
01:52:13,120 --> 01:52:16,477
you. So like maybe that's how it shows up.
Um yeah, there are people working on

2112
01:52:16,560 --> 01:52:20,477
so-called haptic or touch based uh kinds
of things. There are people working on

2113
01:52:20,560 --> 01:52:24,557
actually picking up uh nerve signals
like out of your arm. Um right to be

2114
01:52:24,640 --> 01:52:28,717
able to um uh to be able to uh there's
um people there's you know there's some

2115
01:52:28,800 --> 01:52:32,557
science for being able to do basically
like subocalization. Um so maybe you

2116
01:52:32,640 --> 01:52:37,517
could pick up um you could pick up
that way uh bone conduction you know um so

2117
01:52:37,600 --> 01:52:40,717
yeah these are all going to be tried
so so so that's one question is the

2118
01:52:40,800 --> 01:52:43,357
physical form of it and then and then
the other question is the software

2119
01:52:43,440 --> 01:52:46,157
version of it which is like okay what's
the level of abstraction that you want

2120
01:52:46,240 --> 01:52:49,997
to deal with these things in like do
you like right now it's like a question

2121
01:52:50,080 --> 01:52:53,117
answer paradigm so called chatbot
like ask question get an answer ask a

2122
01:52:53,200 --> 01:52:56,237
question get an answer like well you
want that to go for sure to more of a

2123
01:52:56,320 --> 01:52:59,277
fluid conversation you want to build
up more knowledge of who you are and you

2124
01:52:59,360 --> 01:53:01,757
don't want to have to explain yourself
the second time and so forth And then

2125
01:53:01,840 --> 01:53:04,477
you want to be able to tell it things
like, well, remind me this, that, or you

2126
01:53:04,560 --> 01:53:06,477
know, be sure and tell me when x.

2127
01:53:06,560 --> 01:53:10,077
>> Um, but then maybe over time, more and
more, you want it actually deciding when

2128
01:53:10,160 --> 01:53:12,957
it's going to talk to you, right? Um,
and when it thinks it has something to

2129
01:53:13,040 --> 01:53:15,277
say, it says it
and otherwise it stay silent.

2130
01:53:15,360 --> 01:53:20,237
>> And and normally, at least in my head,
unless I make a concerted effort to do

2131
01:53:20,320 --> 01:53:21,837
otherwise, I don't think in complete

2132
01:53:21,920 --> 01:53:26,077
sentences. Um, so presumably this these

2133
01:53:26,160 --> 01:53:29,917
AI um these machines could learn my

2134
01:53:30,000 --> 01:53:32,717
style of fragmented internal dialogue

2135
01:53:32,800 --> 01:53:34,397
and I'll maybe I have an earpiece and

2136
01:53:34,480 --> 01:53:37,277
I'm walking in and and I start hearing

2137
01:53:37,360 --> 01:53:39,997
something but at some you know advice

2138
01:53:40,080 --> 01:53:42,717
etc. Um encouragement discouragement um

2139
01:53:42,800 --> 01:53:45,117
but at some point

2140
01:53:45,200 --> 01:53:49,757
those sounds that I hear in an earphone
are very different than seeing something

2141
01:53:49,840 --> 01:53:53,517
or hearing something in the room.
We know this based on the neuroscience of

2142
01:53:53,600 --> 01:53:56,557
musical perception and language
perception. Hearing something in your

2143
01:53:56,640 --> 01:54:00,397
head is very different. And I could
imagine at some point that the AI will

2144
01:54:00,480 --> 01:54:03,437
cross a precipice where if it has inline

2145
01:54:03,520 --> 01:54:07,597
wiring to actually control neural
activity in specific brain areas and I

2146
01:54:07,680 --> 01:54:10,477
don't mean very precisely even just
stimulating a little more prefrontal

2147
01:54:10,560 --> 01:54:12,877
cortical activity for instance
through the earpiece. You know a little

2148
01:54:12,960 --> 01:54:16,717
ultrasound wave now can stimulate
prefrontal cortex in a non-invasive way

2149
01:54:16,800 --> 01:54:20,237
that's being used clinically
and experimentally.

2150
01:54:20,320 --> 01:54:22,877
um that the AI could decide that I need

2151
01:54:22,960 --> 01:54:28,237
to be a little bit more um contextaware,
right? Um this is something that uh is

2152
01:54:28,320 --> 01:54:31,437
very beneficial for those listening that
are trying to figure out how to navigate

2153
01:54:31,520 --> 01:54:34,237
through life. It's like you know know
the context you're in and know the

2154
01:54:34,320 --> 01:54:37,757
catalog of behaviors and words that are
appropriate for that situation and not

2155
01:54:37,840 --> 01:54:40,877
others. And um you know uh this would go

2156
01:54:40,960 --> 01:54:44,877
along with agreeableness perhaps, but
strategic agreeableness, right? Context

2157
01:54:44,960 --> 01:54:48,317
is important. Um there's nothing
diabolical about that. context is

2158
01:54:48,400 --> 01:54:51,837
important, but I could imagine the AI
recognizing, ah, we're entering a

2159
01:54:51,920 --> 01:54:55,677
particular environment. I'm now actually
going to ramp up activity in prefrontal

2160
01:54:55,760 --> 01:55:00,237
cortex a little bit in a certain way
that allows you to be more situationally

2161
01:55:00,320 --> 01:55:02,477
aware of yourself and others, which is

2162
01:55:02,560 --> 01:55:06,317
great unless I can't necessarily short

2163
01:55:06,400 --> 01:55:09,437
circuit that influence because, you

2164
01:55:09,520 --> 01:55:13,357
know, at some point the AI is actually
then controlling my brain activity and

2165
01:55:13,440 --> 01:55:17,037
my decision-m and my speech, right?
I think that's what people fear is that

2166
01:55:17,120 --> 01:55:21,677
once we cross that precipice that we
are giving up control to the artificial

2167
01:55:21,760 --> 01:55:23,197
versions of our human intelligence.

2168
01:55:23,280 --> 01:55:26,157
>> Yeah. And look, I think we have to
decide and you we we collectively and we

2169
01:55:26,240 --> 01:55:28,877
as individuals I think have to decide
exactly how to do that. And and this is

2170
01:55:28,960 --> 01:55:30,237
the big thing that I believe about AI.

2171
01:55:30,320 --> 01:55:32,797
There's just a much more I would say
practical view of the world than a lot

2172
01:55:32,880 --> 01:55:36,557
of the panic that you hear is just like
these are machines. They're able to do

2173
01:55:36,640 --> 01:55:38,797
things that increasingly are like
the things that people can do in some

2174
01:55:38,880 --> 01:55:40,077
circumstances. But these are machines.

2175
01:55:40,160 --> 01:55:42,717
We build the machines.
We decide how to use the machines.

2176
01:55:42,800 --> 01:55:44,717
>> When we want the machines turned on,
they're turned on. We want them turned

2177
01:55:44,800 --> 01:55:47,757
off. they're turned off. Um and so yeah,
so I I think that's absolutely the kind

2178
01:55:47,840 --> 01:55:50,317
of thing that the individual person
should always be in charge of.

2179
01:55:50,400 --> 01:55:53,837
>> I mean, everyone was and I have
to imagine some people are still afraid of

2180
01:55:53,920 --> 01:55:57,197
crisper of gene editing.
>> Um but gene editing stands to

2181
01:55:57,280 --> 01:56:01,517
revolutionize our treatment of all sorts
of diseases. Um you know, inserting and

2182
01:56:01,600 --> 01:56:05,677
deleting particular genes in adulthood,
right? Not having to um recombine in the

2183
01:56:05,760 --> 01:56:10,557
womb a new a new organism is an immensely
powerful tool. Um and yet the

2184
01:56:10,640 --> 01:56:15,437
Chinese scientist who did crisper
on humans, this has been done actually did

2185
01:56:15,520 --> 01:56:19,677
his posttock at Stanford with Steve
Quake then went to China did crisper on

2186
01:56:19,760 --> 01:56:21,837
babies mutated um something I believe it

2187
01:56:21,920 --> 01:56:24,797
was the HIV one of the HIV receptors I'm

2188
01:56:24,880 --> 01:56:28,957
told it was with the intention
of augmenting human memory. It had very

2189
01:56:29,040 --> 01:56:33,837
little to do in fact with um limiting
susceptibility to HIV per se to do with

2190
01:56:33,920 --> 01:56:35,117
the way that that receptor is involved

2191
01:56:35,200 --> 01:56:39,917
in human memory. um the world demonized

2192
01:56:40,000 --> 01:56:42,557
that person. We actually don't know what
happened to them. Whether or not they

2193
01:56:42,640 --> 01:56:46,477
have a laboratory now or they're sitting
in jail, it's unclear, but in China and

2194
01:56:46,560 --> 01:56:48,957
elsewhere, people are doing crisper on

2195
01:56:49,040 --> 01:56:51,837
humans. We know this. Um it's not legal

2196
01:56:51,920 --> 01:56:54,877
in the US and um other countries, but

2197
01:56:54,960 --> 01:56:59,437
it's happening. Um, do you
think it's a mistake for us to

2198
01:56:59,520 --> 01:57:03,517
fear these technologies so much that we
back away from them and end up 10, 20

2199
01:57:03,600 --> 01:57:08,237
years behind other countries that could
use it for both benevolent or um

2200
01:57:08,320 --> 01:57:10,797
malevolent reasons? [clears throat]
>> Yeah. So there's always and you know

2201
01:57:10,880 --> 01:57:13,917
look the details matter. So it it's
technology by technology, but I would

2202
01:57:14,000 --> 01:57:16,397
say there's there's two things.
There's you always have to think in these

2203
01:57:16,480 --> 01:57:19,117
questions I think in terms
of counterfactuals and opportunity cost,

2204
01:57:19,200 --> 01:57:22,477
right? And so so [laughter] crisper
is an interesting one. Crisper,

2205
01:57:22,560 --> 01:57:27,677
you manipulate the human genome. Nature
manipulates the human genome [laughter]

2206
01:57:27,760 --> 01:57:30,317
>> like in all kinds of ways.
>> Yeah. When you pick a spouse and you

2207
01:57:30,400 --> 01:57:33,197
have a child with that spouse,
you're doing genetic recombination.

2208
01:57:33,280 --> 01:57:36,717
>> You are really you are quite possibly
you know if you're Genghaskhan you know

2209
01:57:36,800 --> 01:57:37,997
you're determining the future of you

2210
01:57:38,080 --> 01:57:41,037
know humanity right by those like like

2211
01:57:41,120 --> 01:57:46,717
yeah nature I mean look mutations
like so this is the old this is the old

2212
01:57:46,800 --> 01:57:49,757
question of like basically you know
this is all state of nature state of grace

2213
01:57:49,840 --> 01:57:52,717
like you know basically is nature good
and then therefore artificial things are

2214
01:57:52,800 --> 01:57:55,757
bad. Um, you know, which is kind of shock.
A lot of people have like ethical

2215
01:57:55,840 --> 01:57:59,757
views like that. Um, uh, I'm always
of the view that like nature's a [__] and

2216
01:57:59,840 --> 01:58:04,317
wants us dead. Like nature's out to get
us, man. Like nature wants to kill us,

2217
01:58:04,400 --> 01:58:07,037
right? Um, like nature wants to like
evolve all kinds of like horrible

2218
01:58:07,120 --> 01:58:08,637
viruses. Nature wants to do plagues.

2219
01:58:08,720 --> 01:58:11,437
Nature wants to like do, you know,
weather, you know, like nature nature

2220
01:58:11,520 --> 01:58:14,317
wants to do all kinds of stuff. I mean,
look, the original nature religion was

2221
01:58:14,400 --> 01:58:17,197
the original religion, right? Like that
was the original thing people worshiped.

2222
01:58:17,280 --> 01:58:19,837
And the reason was because nature
was the thing that was out to get you,

2223
01:58:19,920 --> 01:58:23,517
right? um before you had scientific
and technological methods to be able to to

2224
01:58:23,600 --> 01:58:27,997
be able to deal with it. So, so, so the
idea of not doing these things to me is

2225
01:58:28,080 --> 01:58:30,477
just saying, "Oh, we're just going
to turn over the future of everything to

2226
01:58:30,560 --> 01:58:33,277
nature." And I don't think that that
there's no reason to believe that that

2227
01:58:33,360 --> 01:58:37,037
leads in a particularly good direction
or bad, you know, that that that's not a

2228
01:58:37,120 --> 01:58:40,557
value neutral decision. Um and then
the related thing that comes from that is

2229
01:58:40,640 --> 01:58:43,757
this always this question around what's
called the precautionary principle. Um

2230
01:58:43,840 --> 01:58:46,477
which shows up in all these
conversations on things like Crisper. um

2231
01:58:46,560 --> 01:58:49,757
which basically is this it's this
principle that basically says the

2232
01:58:49,840 --> 01:58:52,717
inventors of a new technology should be
required to prove that it will not have

2233
01:58:52,800 --> 01:58:57,117
negative effects before they roll it out.
Um this of course is a very new

2234
01:58:57,200 --> 01:59:00,717
idea. This is actually a new idea in the
1970s. Um it's actually invented by the

2235
01:59:00,800 --> 01:59:04,477
German Greens the 1970s. Um before
that people didn't think in those terms.

2236
01:59:04,560 --> 01:59:08,317
People just invented things uh
and rolled them out. And we got all of

2237
01:59:08,400 --> 01:59:12,477
modern civilization by people inventing
things and and rolling them out. Um the

2238
01:59:12,560 --> 01:59:15,117
German Greens came up with the
precautionary principle for one specific

2239
01:59:15,200 --> 01:59:17,677
purpose. I'll bet you
can guess what it is.

2240
01:59:17,760 --> 01:59:20,637
>> Uh, >> it was to prevent >> famine.

2241
01:59:20,720 --> 01:59:22,797
>> Nuclear power. >> Oh,
[snorts] it was to shut down

2242
01:59:22,880 --> 01:59:24,797
attempts to do civilian nuclear power.

2243
01:59:24,880 --> 01:59:28,637
Um, and if you fast forward 50 years
later, you're like, "Wow, that was a big

2244
01:59:28,720 --> 01:59:31,757
mistake, right?" Um, so what with what
what they said at the time was you have

2245
01:59:31,840 --> 01:59:33,917
to prove that nuclear reactors
are not going to melt down

2246
01:59:34,000 --> 01:59:36,397
>> and cause all kinds of problems. And
of course, as an engineer, can you prove

2247
01:59:36,480 --> 01:59:39,597
that that will never happen? Like
you can't like you can't rule out like

2248
01:59:39,680 --> 01:59:41,197
things that might happen in the future.

2249
01:59:41,280 --> 01:59:45,917
Um, and so that that philosophy was used
to stop nuclear power. By the way, not

2250
01:59:46,000 --> 01:59:49,437
just in Europe, but also in the US and
around much of the rest of the world. If

2251
01:59:49,520 --> 01:59:52,077
you're somebody who's concerned about
carbon emissions, of course, this is the

2252
01:59:52,160 --> 01:59:55,357
worst thing that happened in the last 50
years in terms of energy. We we actually

2253
01:59:55,440 --> 01:59:58,317
have the silver bullet answer
to unlimited energy with zero carbon

2254
01:59:58,400 --> 02:00:02,237
emissions, nuclear power. We we choose
not to do it. Not only do we choose not

2255
02:00:02,320 --> 02:00:05,677
to do it, we're actually shutting down
the plants that we have now, right? In

2256
02:00:05,760 --> 02:00:09,197
California, we just shut down, you know,
the big plant. Germany just shut down

2257
02:00:09,280 --> 02:00:12,317
their plants. Germanyy's in the middle
of an energy war with Russia, right,

2258
02:00:12,400 --> 02:00:14,957
that we are informed as existential
for the future of Europe.

2259
02:00:15,040 --> 02:00:19,597
>> But unless the risk of nuclear um power
plant uh meltdown has increased, and I

2260
02:00:19,680 --> 02:00:21,117
have to imagine it's gone the other way.

2261
02:00:21,200 --> 02:00:24,237
Yeah. >> Um what is the
rationale behind shutting

2262
02:00:24,320 --> 02:00:27,197
down these plants and not expanding >>
because nuclear is bad, right? Nuclear

2263
02:00:27,280 --> 02:00:29,677
is icky. Nuclear is nuclear.
Nuclear has been tagged.

2264
02:00:29,760 --> 02:00:31,677
>> It just sounds bad. Nuclear.

2265
02:00:31,760 --> 02:00:33,277
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go nuclear.

2266
02:00:33,360 --> 02:00:34,397
>> Nuclear. Well, so what what happened?

2267
02:00:34,480 --> 02:00:37,197
>> We didn't shut down postal offices
and you hear go postal. So what what

2268
02:00:37,280 --> 02:00:40,957
happened was so so nuclear technology
arrived on planet earth as a weapon,

2269
02:00:41,040 --> 02:00:43,917
right? So it arrived in the form of the
first thing they did was in the middle

2270
02:00:44,000 --> 02:00:46,397
of World War II. The first thing they
did was the atomic bomb they dropped on

2271
02:00:46,480 --> 02:00:49,037
Japan and then and then there were all
the debates that followed around nuclear

2272
02:00:49,120 --> 02:00:51,997
weapons and disarmament and there's
a whole conversation to be had by the way

2273
02:00:52,080 --> 02:00:55,437
about that because there's different
views you could have on that and then it

2274
02:00:55,520 --> 02:00:57,997
was in the like 50s and 60s where they
started to roll out civilian nuclear

2275
02:00:58,080 --> 02:01:00,397
power and then there were there were me
there were accidents there was like you

2276
02:01:00,480 --> 02:01:03,597
know three mile island melted down
and you know and then Chernobyl you know

2277
02:01:03,680 --> 02:01:06,637
melted down in the Soviet Union and then
even recently you know Fukushima melted

2278
02:01:06,720 --> 02:01:09,677
down um and so you know there have
been meltdowns and so I think it was a

2279
02:01:09,760 --> 02:01:14,077
combination of it's a weapon
um it is sort of icky

2280
02:01:14,160 --> 02:01:15,677
scientists sometimes say the ick factor.

2281
02:01:15,760 --> 02:01:19,677
Um right. Um it sort of it's you know
it's radioactive. It glows green you

2282
02:01:19,760 --> 02:01:23,837
know and by the way it becomes you know
becomes like a mythical fictional thing

2283
02:01:23,920 --> 02:01:26,717
and so you have all these movies of like
horrible you know super villains powered

2284
02:01:26,800 --> 02:01:28,717
by like nuclear energy
and all this all this stuff.

2285
02:01:28,800 --> 02:01:32,237
>> Well the intro to the Simpsons
right is the nuclear power plant and the

2286
02:01:32,320 --> 02:01:36,637
three-eyed fish and the you know all
all the negative implications of this

2287
02:01:36,720 --> 02:01:38,957
nuclear power plant run by um at least

2288
02:01:39,040 --> 02:01:42,877
on the Simpsons idiots. Um and that is

2289
02:01:42,960 --> 02:01:48,157
the you know uh the dystopia where
people are unaware of just how bad it is

2290
02:01:48,240 --> 02:01:51,597
>> and who owns the nuclear power plant
right this like evil you know this evil

2291
02:01:51,680 --> 02:01:54,717
capitalist right like so it's like
connected to like you know capitalism

2292
02:01:54,800 --> 02:01:59,037
right um and >> so we're blaming Matt
groaning for the demise of a particular

2293
02:01:59,120 --> 02:02:01,117
>> he certainly didn't
help >> no he didn't

2294
02:02:01,200 --> 02:02:03,437
>> right um but it's
literally this amazing

2295
02:02:03,520 --> 02:02:05,757
thing where if you're just like thinking
if you're just thinking like rationally

2296
02:02:05,840 --> 02:02:08,717
scientifically you're like okay we want
to get rid of carbon this is the obvious

2297
02:02:08,800 --> 02:02:13,757
way to do it so so okay fun Richard
Nixon um uh did two two things

2298
02:02:13,840 --> 02:02:16,637
that really mattered on this. So one
is he defined in 1971 something called

2299
02:02:16,720 --> 02:02:19,917
project independence uh which was to
create a thousand new state-of-the-art

2300
02:02:20,000 --> 02:02:23,597
nuclear plants, civilian nuclear plants
in the US by 1980 and to get the US

2301
02:02:23,680 --> 02:02:27,357
completely off of oil uh and cut
the entire US energy grid over to nuclear

2302
02:02:27,440 --> 02:02:30,557
power electricity cut over to electric
cars the whole thing like detach from

2303
02:02:30,640 --> 02:02:35,037
carbon. Um you'll notice that didn't
happen. Um why did that not happen?

2304
02:02:35,120 --> 02:02:38,557
Because he also created the EPA and the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission which then

2305
02:02:38,640 --> 02:02:39,677
prevented that from happening, right?

2306
02:02:39,760 --> 02:02:42,157
Right. And the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission did not authorize a new

2307
02:02:42,240 --> 02:02:43,917
nuclear plant in the US for 40 years.

2308
02:02:44,000 --> 02:02:46,637
>> Why would he hamstring
himself like that?

2309
02:02:46,720 --> 02:02:49,037
>> You know, he got
distracted by [laughter]

2310
02:02:49,120 --> 02:02:52,157
>> Yeah. He had by by
Watergate in Vietnam.

2311
02:02:52,240 --> 02:02:55,277
Um >> Yeah. I think Ellberg just died
recently, right? The guy who released

2312
02:02:55,360 --> 02:02:58,157
the Pentagon papers. Yeah.
So, you know, it's complicated,

2313
02:02:58,240 --> 02:02:59,517
>> but it's Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Exactly. It's

2314
02:02:59,600 --> 02:03:02,077
this thing. Yeah. He didn't, you know,
he left office shortly there after. He

2315
02:03:02,160 --> 02:03:04,557
didn't have time to, you know, fully
figure this out. I don't know whether he

2316
02:03:04,640 --> 02:03:07,037
would have figured it out or not.
You know, look, Ford could have figured it

2317
02:03:07,120 --> 02:03:08,237
out. Carter could have figured it out.

2318
02:03:08,320 --> 02:03:10,397
Reagan could have figured it out. any
of these guys could have figured it out.

2319
02:03:10,480 --> 02:03:13,197
It's like the most obvious, knowing
what we know today, it's the most obvious

2320
02:03:13,280 --> 02:03:16,237
thing in the world. The Russia thing
is the amazing thing. It's like Europe is

2321
02:03:16,320 --> 02:03:20,077
literally funding Russia's invasion
of Ukraine by paying them for oil, right?

2322
02:03:20,160 --> 02:03:23,357
And they can't shut off the oil because
they won't cut over to nuclear, right?

2323
02:03:23,440 --> 02:03:25,997
And then of course what happens, okay,
so then here's the other kicker of what

2324
02:03:26,080 --> 02:03:29,437
happens, right? Which is they won't do
nuclear, but they want to do renewables,

2325
02:03:29,520 --> 02:03:33,517
right? Sustainable energy. And so what
they do is they do uh solar and wind.

2326
02:03:33,600 --> 02:03:37,437
Solar and wind are not reliable [snorts]
because it sometimes gets dark out and

2327
02:03:37,520 --> 02:03:40,797
sometimes the wind doesn't blow. And so
then what happens is they fire up the

2328
02:03:40,880 --> 02:03:44,637
coal plants, right? And so the actual
consequence of the precautionary

2329
02:03:44,720 --> 02:03:48,717
principle for the purpose it was invented
is a massive spike in use of coal.

2330
02:03:48,800 --> 02:03:50,637
>> That's taking us back
over a hundred years.

2331
02:03:50,720 --> 02:03:52,957
>> Yes. Correct.
That is the consequence of

2332
02:03:53,040 --> 02:03:56,477
the precautionary principle. Like that's
the consequence of that mentality. And

2333
02:03:56,560 --> 02:03:59,757
so it's a failure of a principle on its
own merits for the thing it was designed

2334
02:03:59,840 --> 02:04:03,037
for. And then, you know, there there's
a whole movement of people who want to

2335
02:04:03,120 --> 02:04:06,157
apply it to every new thing. And and
and and this is the hot topic on AI right

2336
02:04:06,240 --> 02:04:09,037
now in in Washington, which is like,
oh my god, these people have to prove that

2337
02:04:09,120 --> 02:04:10,557
this can never get used for bad things.

2338
02:04:10,640 --> 02:04:12,077
>> Sorry, I'm hung up on this nuclear

2339
02:04:12,160 --> 02:04:15,677
thing. And and um I wonder uh can it

2340
02:04:15,760 --> 02:04:20,077
just be renamed? I mean, seriously,
I mean, there is something about the

2341
02:04:20,160 --> 02:04:24,717
naming of things. We know this in biology,
right? I mean, um you know, uh

2342
02:04:24,800 --> 02:04:28,477
Lamarian evolution and things like that
are bad. These are bad words in biology.

2343
02:04:28,560 --> 02:04:31,597
But we had a guest on this podcast.
So did Rashavei who's over in Israel who's

2344
02:04:31,680 --> 02:04:36,477
shown you know inherited traits but if
you talk about his Lamarian then it has

2345
02:04:36,560 --> 02:04:40,557
all sorts of negative implications but
he's the his discoveries have important

2346
02:04:40,640 --> 02:04:44,477
implications for everything from
inherited trauma to treatment of

2347
02:04:44,560 --> 02:04:47,917
disease. I mean there's all sorts
of positives that await us if we are able

2348
02:04:48,000 --> 02:04:51,917
to reframe our thinking around something
that yes indeed could be used for evil,

2349
02:04:52,000 --> 02:04:54,877
>> right? >> Um but that has
enormous potential and

2350
02:04:54,960 --> 02:04:59,517
that is in agreement with nature, >>
right? This fundamental truth that um at

2351
02:04:59,600 --> 02:05:03,997
least to my knowledge no one is revising
in any significant way anytime soon. So

2352
02:05:04,080 --> 02:05:06,237
what if it were called something else?

2353
02:05:06,320 --> 02:05:10,637
>> Instead of nuclear, it's it's called
um you know sustainable, right? I mean,

2354
02:05:10,720 --> 02:05:15,117
it's amazing how marketing can can shift
our perspective of robots, for instance,

2355
02:05:15,200 --> 02:05:17,517
or um anyway, I'm sure you can come up

2356
02:05:17,600 --> 02:05:19,437
with better examples than I can, but uh

2357
02:05:19,520 --> 02:05:23,677
is there a uh good solid PR uh firm

2358
02:05:23,760 --> 02:05:25,757
working from the nuclear side?

2359
02:05:25,840 --> 02:05:30,317
>> Thunberian. Greta Thunderberg.
Um oh, Thumbergian.

2360
02:05:30,400 --> 02:05:33,277
>> Then like if she got if
she was in favor of it. Yeah.

2361
02:05:33,360 --> 02:05:35,517
>> Which by the way, she's not.
She's dead set against it.

2362
02:05:35,600 --> 02:05:40,317
>> She said that >> 100%. Yeah.
ba based on >> based on principles.

2363
02:05:40,400 --> 02:05:43,597
>> The prevailing the prevailing ethic
in environmentalism for 50 years is that

2364
02:05:43,680 --> 02:05:46,317
nuclear is evil. Like they won't
consider it. There are by the way

2365
02:05:46,400 --> 02:05:48,957
certain environmentalists who disagree
with this and so Stuart Brand is the one

2366
02:05:49,040 --> 02:05:51,597
that's been the most public and he has
impeccable credentials in the space and

2367
02:05:51,680 --> 02:05:52,877
he wrote this >> polar catalog.

2368
02:05:52,960 --> 02:05:55,517
>> Polar catalog guy. Yeah. And um
he's written a whole bunch of really

2369
02:05:55,600 --> 02:05:57,997
interesting books since and he he
wrote a recent book that goes through in

2370
02:05:58,080 --> 02:06:01,037
detail. He's like yes obviously
the correct environmental thing to do is

2371
02:06:01,120 --> 02:06:04,157
nuclear power. Um and we should be
we should be implementing project

2372
02:06:04,240 --> 02:06:06,797
independence. We should be building
a thousand. We should specifically we

2373
02:06:06,880 --> 02:06:09,037
should He didn't say this, but this is
what I would say. We should hire Charles

2374
02:06:09,120 --> 02:06:12,957
Ko. [laughter] We should
hire KO Industries,

2375
02:06:13,040 --> 02:06:15,597
right? And they should build us
a thousand nuclear power plants, right?

2376
02:06:15,680 --> 02:06:18,317
And then we should give him the
Presidential Medal of Freedom for saving

2377
02:06:18,400 --> 02:06:21,677
the environment. >> And that would put
us independent of our reliance on oil.

2378
02:06:21,760 --> 02:06:23,917
>> Yeah. Then we're done with oil.
Like we're just think about what happens.

2379
02:06:24,000 --> 02:06:25,517
We're done with oil. Zero emissions.

2380
02:06:25,600 --> 02:06:28,837
We're done with the Middle East.
We're done. We're done. We We're not

2381
02:06:28,920 --> 02:06:31,037
[clears throat] drilling We're not
drilling on American land anymore. We're

2382
02:06:31,120 --> 02:06:34,237
not drilling on foreign land. like we
have no military entanglements in places

2383
02:06:34,320 --> 02:06:37,357
where we're drilling. We're not,
you know, despoiling in Alaska. We're not

2384
02:06:37,440 --> 02:06:38,957
nothing. No offshore rigs, no nothing.

2385
02:06:39,040 --> 02:06:42,237
We're done. And you basically just you
build state-of-the-art plants engineered

2386
02:06:42,320 --> 02:06:44,797
properly. You have them just completely
contained when there's nuclear waste.

2387
02:06:44,880 --> 02:06:48,797
You just entomb the waste, right,
in concrete. So it it it just sits there,

2388
02:06:48,880 --> 02:06:51,997
you know, forever. Um it's just very
small, you know, footprint, you know,

2389
02:06:52,080 --> 02:06:54,237
kind of thing. Um and you're just done.

2390
02:06:54,320 --> 02:06:57,757
And so this is like the to me it's like
scientifically, technologically, this is

2391
02:06:57,840 --> 02:07:01,117
just like the most obvious thing in
the world. Um it's a massive tell on the

2392
02:07:01,200 --> 02:07:03,517
part of the people who claim to be pro-
environment that they're not in favor of

2393
02:07:03,600 --> 02:07:06,877
this. >> And if I were
to say um tweet that I'm

2394
02:07:06,960 --> 02:07:10,877
pro nuclear power because it's
the more sustainable form of power. If I

2395
02:07:10,960 --> 02:07:15,037
hypothetically did that today um
what would happen to me in this

2396
02:07:15,120 --> 02:07:18,797
>> cryptofascist, you know,
[laughter] interesting

2397
02:07:18,880 --> 02:07:22,157
>> dirty evil capitalist,
you know, monster, how dare you?

2398
02:07:22,240 --> 02:07:24,957
>> I'm unlikely to run that experiment.
I was just curious. That was what we call

2399
02:07:25,040 --> 02:07:26,877
a Gdankan experiment. Experiment in Earth.

2400
02:07:26,960 --> 02:07:29,837
>> You're a terrible Andrew. You're
a terrible human being. Wow, we we were

2401
02:07:29,920 --> 02:07:32,077
looking for evidence that you're
a terrible human being and now now we know

2402
02:07:32,160 --> 02:07:36,077
it, right? And so this is a great
example of of the I I gave Andrew a book

2403
02:07:36,160 --> 02:07:38,637
on the way in here with this.
My favorite new book is the title of it is

2404
02:07:38,720 --> 02:07:41,917
when reason goes on holiday. [snorts]
Um and this is a great example of it is

2405
02:07:42,000 --> 02:07:44,957
that the people who are who the people
who simultaneously say they're

2406
02:07:45,040 --> 02:07:47,517
environmentalists and say they're
anti-uclear power. Like the positions

2407
02:07:47,600 --> 02:07:51,997
just simply don't reconcile. But that
doesn't bother them like at all. So be

2408
02:07:52,080 --> 02:07:54,717
clear, I predict none
none of this will happen.

2409
02:07:54,800 --> 02:07:59,037
>> Amazing. Uh I need to learn
more about nuclear power. Long coal.

2410
02:07:59,120 --> 02:08:02,557
>> Long coal. >> Long coal. Invest in coal
>> because you think we're just going to

2411
02:08:02,640 --> 02:08:05,917
revert. >> It's the energy
source of the future.

2412
02:08:06,000 --> 02:08:08,477
>> Well, because it can't be solar and
wind because they're not reliable. So, you

2413
02:08:08,560 --> 02:08:11,277
need something >> if it's
not nuclear, it's going to be

2414
02:08:11,360 --> 02:08:13,197
either like oil, natural gas, or coal.

2415
02:08:13,280 --> 02:08:15,037
>> And you're unwilling to say bet on

2416
02:08:15,120 --> 02:08:17,837
nuclear because you don't think that um

2417
02:08:17,920 --> 02:08:22,157
the socopolitical elitist
trends that are driving against

2418
02:08:22,240 --> 02:08:24,237
nuclear are likely
to dissipate anytime soon.

2419
02:08:24,320 --> 02:08:26,557
>> Not a chance. I I can't imagine. It

2420
02:08:26,640 --> 02:08:31,917
would be great if they did, but the that
that they are the the powers that be are

2421
02:08:32,000 --> 02:08:33,277
very locked in on this as a position.

2422
02:08:33,360 --> 02:08:35,677
And look, they've been saying this for 50
years. And so they'd have to reverse

2423
02:08:35,760 --> 02:08:38,717
themselves off of a bad position they've
had for 50 years. And [clears throat]

2424
02:08:38,800 --> 02:08:40,877
>> people really don't like to do that.

2425
02:08:40,960 --> 02:08:43,597
>> One thing that's good about this
and other podcasts is that young people

2426
02:08:43,680 --> 02:08:45,677
listen and they eventually will take over.

2427
02:08:45,760 --> 02:08:49,357
>> Yeah. And by the way, I will say also
there are nuclear entrepreneurs. Um so

2428
02:08:49,440 --> 02:08:51,837
there are actually a b there are a bunch
on the point of young kids, there are a

2429
02:08:51,920 --> 02:08:54,877
bunch of young entrepreneurs who are
basically not taking no for an answer.

2430
02:08:54,960 --> 02:08:57,037
um and they're trying to develop and
in particularly there's people trying to

2431
02:08:57,120 --> 02:09:01,917
develop new very small form factor
uh nuclear power um plants um with a

2432
02:09:02,000 --> 02:09:06,157
variety of possible use cases. Um so you
know look maybe you know maybe they show

2433
02:09:06,240 --> 02:09:09,597
up with a better mousetrap and people
take a second look but we'll see

2434
02:09:09,680 --> 02:09:11,917
>> or just rename it. Um [laughter]

2435
02:09:12,000 --> 02:09:15,197
so my understanding is that you think we

2436
02:09:15,280 --> 02:09:18,477
should go all in on AI with the

2437
02:09:18,560 --> 02:09:23,517
constraints that we discover we need
in order to rein in safety and things of

2438
02:09:23,600 --> 02:09:25,117
that sort. Not unlike social media.

2439
02:09:25,200 --> 02:09:27,117
>> Yeah. >> Not unlike the internet.

2440
02:09:27,200 --> 02:09:29,357
>> Not unlike what we should
have done with nuclear power.

2441
02:09:29,440 --> 02:09:31,437
>> Mhm. Yeah.

2442
02:09:31,520 --> 02:09:34,477
>> And in terms of the um near infinite

2443
02:09:34,560 --> 02:09:38,877
number of ways that AI can be envisioned
to harm us, how do you think we should

2444
02:09:38,960 --> 02:09:42,877
cope with that um psychologically?
You know, because I can imagine a lot of

2445
02:09:42,960 --> 02:09:45,837
people listening to this conversation
are thinking, okay, that all sounds

2446
02:09:45,920 --> 02:09:49,997
great, but there are just too many
whatifs that are terrible, right? You

2447
02:09:50,080 --> 02:09:53,357
know, what if the machines take over?
Or what if you know I'll the silly example

2448
02:09:53,440 --> 02:09:56,957
I gave earlier but um you know what if
one day I could log into my um you know

2449
02:09:57,040 --> 02:09:59,357
hard earned bank account
and it's all gone right

2450
02:09:59,440 --> 02:10:01,277
>> you know my the AI version of myself

2451
02:10:01,360 --> 02:10:04,077
like ran off with someone else and with

2452
02:10:04,160 --> 02:10:06,957
all my money right [laughter]

2453
02:10:07,040 --> 02:10:11,597
my AI coach abandoned me for somebody
else after it learned all the stuff that

2454
02:10:11,680 --> 02:10:14,957
I taught it >> it took
off with somebody else

2455
02:10:15,040 --> 02:10:19,517
>> stranded [snorts] you know and it has
my bank account numbers like this kind of

2456
02:10:19,600 --> 02:10:21,197
thing right >> you could
really make this scenario

2457
02:10:21,280 --> 02:10:24,637
horrible if you kept going. [snorts]
>> Yeah. Um well, we can throw in a

2458
02:10:24,720 --> 02:10:28,077
benevolent example as well um to counter

2459
02:10:28,160 --> 02:10:32,237
it. But um it's kind of fun to think
about where the human mind goes, >> right?

2460
02:10:32,320 --> 02:10:35,037
>> Yeah. So, first I I say we got to
separate the real problems from the fake

2461
02:10:35,120 --> 02:10:37,757
problems. And so there's a lot a lot
of the science fiction scenarios I think

2462
02:10:37,840 --> 02:10:40,797
are just not real. And the ones that you
decided as an example, like it's not

2463
02:10:40,880 --> 02:10:42,797
that's not what's going to happen. And I
can explain why that's not what's going

2464
02:10:42,880 --> 02:10:45,517
to happen. So you should there's a set
of there's a set of fake ones. The fake

2465
02:10:45,600 --> 02:10:49,117
ones are are ones or the ones that just
aren't I think technologically grounded

2466
02:10:49,200 --> 02:10:51,597
that aren't rational. It's the AI is going
to like wake up and decide to kill

2467
02:10:51,680 --> 02:10:54,397
us all. It's going to like yeah,
it's going to develop the kind of agency

2468
02:10:54,480 --> 02:10:56,797
where it's going to steal our money,
you know, money and our spouse and

2469
02:10:56,880 --> 02:11:00,957
everything else, our kids. Um like
that's just that's not how it works. Um

2470
02:11:01,040 --> 02:11:03,437
and then there's also all these
concerns, you know, destruction of

2471
02:11:03,520 --> 02:11:06,797
society concerns and this is, you know,
misinformation, hate speech, deep fakes,

2472
02:11:06,880 --> 02:11:10,397
like all that stuff. U which I I don't
think is a real is actually a real

2473
02:11:10,480 --> 02:11:13,917
problem. Um and then there's a people
have a bunch of economic concerns around

2474
02:11:14,000 --> 02:11:16,717
um you know, what's going to take all
the jobs and all all those kinds of

2475
02:11:16,800 --> 02:11:18,957
things. We could talk about that.
I don't think those are those are those

2476
02:11:19,040 --> 02:11:21,997
are I don't think that's actually
the thing that happens. But then there are

2477
02:11:22,080 --> 02:11:25,277
two actual real concerns that I actually
do very much agree with and one of them

2478
02:11:25,360 --> 02:11:28,797
is is what you said which is um bad
people doing bad things and there's

2479
02:11:28,880 --> 02:11:33,037
there's a whole set of things to be done
inside there. The big one is we should

2480
02:11:33,120 --> 02:11:37,037
use AI to build defenses against all
the bad things, right? And so for for

2481
02:11:37,120 --> 02:11:39,837
example, there's a concern AI is going
to make it easier for bad people to

2482
02:11:39,920 --> 02:11:43,037
build pathogens, right? Design pathogens
in labs, which you know, bad people, bad

2483
02:11:43,120 --> 02:11:46,077
scientists can do today, but this is
going to make it easier easier to do.

2484
02:11:46,160 --> 02:11:49,197
Well, obviously we should have
the equivalent of an operation warp speed

2485
02:11:49,280 --> 02:11:52,957
operating, you know, in perpetuity anyway,
right? But then we should use AI

2486
02:11:53,040 --> 02:11:56,157
to build much better bio defenses,
right? And we should be using AI today

2487
02:11:56,240 --> 02:11:59,197
to design like, for example, full
spectrum vaccines against every possible

2488
02:11:59,280 --> 02:12:03,757
form of pathogen, right? And so so
defensive mechanism um hacking you can

2489
02:12:03,840 --> 02:12:06,637
use AI to build better defense tools,
right? And so you should you should have

2490
02:12:06,720 --> 02:12:09,197
a whole new kind of security suite
wrapped around you, wrapped around your

2491
02:12:09,280 --> 02:12:13,197
data, wrapped around your money
where you you're having AI uh repel um

2492
02:12:13,280 --> 02:12:17,037
attacks, uh disinformation, hate speech,
deep fakes, all that stuff. You should

2493
02:12:17,120 --> 02:12:20,397
have an AI filter when you use
the internet where it, you know, you

2494
02:12:20,480 --> 02:12:23,037
shouldn't have to figure out whether
it's really me or whether it's it's a

2495
02:12:23,120 --> 02:12:25,837
madeup thing. You should have an AI
assistant that's doing that for you.

2496
02:12:25,920 --> 02:12:28,797
>> Oh yeah. I mean, these these little
banners and cloaks that you see on

2497
02:12:28,880 --> 02:12:32,397
social media, like this has been deemed
misinformation that, you know, if you're

2498
02:12:32,480 --> 02:12:35,997
me, you always click, right? Because
you're like, what's behind the scrim?

2499
02:12:36,080 --> 02:12:41,037
And then um or this is a I don't
always look at the the this image is is

2500
02:12:41,120 --> 02:12:42,957
gruesome type thing. Sometimes I just

2501
02:12:43,040 --> 02:12:48,077
pass on that. But if it's something that
um seems debatable, of course you look

2502
02:12:48,160 --> 02:12:50,317
>> well. And you should have you should
have an AI assistant with you when

2503
02:12:50,400 --> 02:12:52,477
you're on the internet. And you should
be able to tell that AI assistant what

2504
02:12:52,560 --> 02:12:55,997
you want, right? So, yes, I want the full
I want the full experience to show

2505
02:12:56,080 --> 02:12:58,877
me everything. Um, I want it from a
particular point of view, and I don't

2506
02:12:58,960 --> 02:13:01,837
want to hear from these other people who
I don't like. I, by the way, it's going

2507
02:13:01,920 --> 02:13:04,397
to be my 8-year-old is using this.
I don't want anything that's going to

2508
02:13:04,480 --> 02:13:07,757
cause a problem, and I want everything
filtered and and and AI based filters

2509
02:13:07,840 --> 02:13:11,357
like that that you program and control
are going to work much better uh and and

2510
02:13:11,440 --> 02:13:13,997
be much more honest and straightforward
and clear and so forth than than what we

2511
02:13:14,080 --> 02:13:16,717
have today. So, so anyway, so so
basically what I want people to do is

2512
02:13:16,800 --> 02:13:19,357
think every time you think of like
a risk of how it can be used, just think

2513
02:13:19,440 --> 02:13:22,237
of like, okay, we can use it to build
a counter measure. And the great thing

2514
02:13:22,320 --> 02:13:25,117
about the countermeasures is they
can not only offset AI risks, they can

2515
02:13:25,200 --> 02:13:28,397
offset other risks, right? Because we
already live in a world where pathogens

2516
02:13:28,480 --> 02:13:32,317
are a problem, right? Um we ought
to have better vaccines um anyway, right?

2517
02:13:32,400 --> 02:13:34,637
Uh we already live in a world where
there's cyber hacking and cyber

2518
02:13:34,720 --> 02:13:37,037
terrorism. There already live in a world
where there is bad content on the

2519
02:13:37,120 --> 02:13:40,397
internet and we have the ability now
to build much better AI powered tools to

2520
02:13:40,480 --> 02:13:44,637
deal with all those things.
I also love the idea of the AI

2521
02:13:44,720 --> 02:13:48,717
physicians. >> Um, you know,
getting decent health care

2522
02:13:48,800 --> 02:13:53,037
in this country is so difficult even
for people who have means or insurance. I

2523
02:13:53,120 --> 02:13:56,157
mean, the number of phone calls
and weights that you have to go through to

2524
02:13:56,240 --> 02:14:00,317
get a referral to see a specialist.
I mean, it's absurd. Like I mean, the

2525
02:14:00,400 --> 02:14:05,437
process is is absurd. I mean, it makes
one partially or frankly ill just to go

2526
02:14:05,520 --> 02:14:08,877
through the process of having to do all
that. I don't know how anyone does it.

2527
02:14:08,960 --> 02:14:12,797
Um, and granted I don't have um
the highest degree of patience, but I'm

2528
02:14:12,880 --> 02:14:15,837
pretty patient and it drives me insane

2529
02:14:15,920 --> 02:14:18,877
um to even just get a remedial care. But

2530
02:14:18,960 --> 02:14:23,277
um so I can think of a lot of um
benevolent uses of AI and I'm I'm

2531
02:14:23,360 --> 02:14:26,477
grateful that you're bringing this up
and uh here and that you've tweeted

2532
02:14:26,560 --> 02:14:29,837
about it in that thread. Again,
we'll refer people to that and that you're

2533
02:14:29,920 --> 02:14:33,197
thinking about this. I have to imagine
that in your role as investor um

2534
02:14:33,280 --> 02:14:37,677
nowadays that you're also thinking about
AI quite often um in terms of all these

2535
02:14:37,760 --> 02:14:40,157
roles. Um and so does that mean that

2536
02:14:40,240 --> 02:14:45,917
there are a lot of u young people who are
really bullish on AI and are going for it?

2537
02:14:46,000 --> 02:14:47,517
>> Yeah. >> Okay. This is here to stay.

2538
02:14:47,600 --> 02:14:49,437
>> Yeah. >> Okay.
>> Yeah. Oh yeah. Big time.

2539
02:14:49,520 --> 02:14:52,877
>> Okay. Unlike crisper which is sort
of in this liinal place where biotech

2540
02:14:52,960 --> 02:14:55,277
companies aren't sure if
they should invest or not

2541
02:14:55,360 --> 02:14:58,317
>> in in uh in crisper
because it's unclear

2542
02:14:58,400 --> 02:15:00,877
whether or not the governing bodies
are going to allow gene editing.

2543
02:15:00,960 --> 02:15:03,197
>> Right. >> Just like it
was unclear uh 15 years ago

2544
02:15:03,280 --> 02:15:05,997
if they were going to allow gene therapy.
But now we know they do allow

2545
02:15:06,080 --> 02:15:08,237
gene therapy and amunotherapy. Okay.

2546
02:15:08,320 --> 02:15:10,477
>> So, there is a fight. Having said that,
there is a fight. There's a fight

2547
02:15:10,560 --> 02:15:13,917
happening in Washington right now over
exactly what should be legal or not

2548
02:15:14,000 --> 02:15:16,477
legal. Um, and there's quite a bit
of risk, I think, attached to that fight

2549
02:15:16,560 --> 02:15:19,357
right now because there are some people
in there that are being telling a very

2550
02:15:19,440 --> 02:15:22,877
effective story to try to get people
to either outlaw AI or specifically limit

2551
02:15:22,960 --> 02:15:27,277
it to a small number of big companies,
which I think is potentially disastrous.

2552
02:15:27,360 --> 02:15:31,117
Um, by the way, the EU also is like
super negative. You know, the EU has

2553
02:15:31,200 --> 02:15:33,517
turned super negative on basically all
new technology. So, they're moving to

2554
02:15:33,600 --> 02:15:38,397
try to outlaw AI, which if they succeed,
>> outlaw AI. flat out don't want it.

2555
02:15:38,480 --> 02:15:40,797
>> But that's like saying you're going to
outlaw the internet. I don't see how you

2556
02:15:40,880 --> 02:15:42,717
can stop this train.
>> And frankly, they're not a big fan of

2557
02:15:42,800 --> 02:15:46,397
the internet either.
So like they're I I think they regret

2558
02:15:46,480 --> 02:15:49,837
the EU has a very especially the EU
bureaucrats, the people who run the EU

2559
02:15:49,920 --> 02:15:52,797
in Brussels have a very negative view on

2560
02:15:52,880 --> 02:15:56,957
a lot of modernity. [laughter] >>
But what I'm hearing here, you know,

2561
02:15:57,040 --> 02:16:00,077
calls to mind things that I've heard
people like David Gogggin say, which is,

2562
02:16:00,160 --> 02:16:03,597
you know, there's so many um lazy,
undisiplined people out there that

2563
02:16:03,680 --> 02:16:06,557
nowadays it's easier and easier
to become exceptional. I've heard him say

2564
02:16:06,640 --> 02:16:09,117
something to that extent. It almost
sounds like there's so many countries

2565
02:16:09,200 --> 02:16:11,277
that are just backing off of um

2566
02:16:11,360 --> 02:16:13,037
particular technologies because it just

2567
02:16:13,120 --> 02:16:16,477
sounds bad from the PR perspective um

2568
02:16:16,560 --> 02:16:20,877
that you know it's creating great
lowhanging fruit opportunities for

2569
02:16:20,960 --> 02:16:23,837
people to barge forward and countries
to barge forward if they're willing to

2570
02:16:23,920 --> 02:16:26,397
embrace this stuff.
>> It is but number one you have to have a

2571
02:16:26,480 --> 02:16:29,917
country that wants to do that.
Um and and those exist and there there are

2572
02:16:30,000 --> 02:16:32,637
countries like that. Um but and then the
other is look they they need to be able

2573
02:16:32,720 --> 02:16:37,277
to withstand the attack from uh stronger
countries that don't want them to do it

2574
02:16:37,360 --> 02:16:41,037
right. So like EU like the EU has you
know nominal control over like what

2575
02:16:41,120 --> 02:16:44,557
whatever it is 27 or whatever member
countries. So like even if you're like

2576
02:16:44,640 --> 02:16:47,357
whatever the Germans get all fired up
about whatever like Brussels can still

2577
02:16:47,440 --> 02:16:50,077
in a lot of cases just like flat out
basically control them and tell them not

2578
02:16:50,160 --> 02:16:53,357
to do it right. And then the US I mean
look we have you know we have a lot of

2579
02:16:53,440 --> 02:16:56,877
control over a lot of the world >>
but it sounds like we sit somewhere sort

2580
02:16:56,960 --> 02:17:00,797
of in between like right
now people are developing

2581
02:17:00,880 --> 02:17:04,157
AI technologies in US companies
right so it is happening

2582
02:17:04,240 --> 02:17:05,597
>> yeah today today
it's happening but like

2583
02:17:05,680 --> 02:17:08,717
I said there's a set of people who are
very focused in Washington right now

2584
02:17:08,800 --> 02:17:12,877
about trying to either ban it outright
um or trying to as I said limit it to a

2585
02:17:12,960 --> 02:17:17,277
small number of big companies um and then
look China's got a whole the front

2586
02:17:17,360 --> 02:17:19,997
of this is China's got a whole different
kind of take on this right than we do

2587
02:17:20,080 --> 02:17:22,637
and So they're of course going to allow
it for sure, but they're going to allow

2588
02:17:22,720 --> 02:17:26,557
it in the ways that that their their
system wants it to happen, right? Which

2589
02:17:26,640 --> 02:17:31,037
is much more for population control um
and to implement authoritarianism. Um

2590
02:17:31,120 --> 02:17:34,077
and then of course they they they are
going to spread their technology and

2591
02:17:34,160 --> 02:17:37,837
their vision of how society should run
across the world, right? So we're we're

2592
02:17:37,920 --> 02:17:40,477
back in a cold war dynamic like we were
with the Soviet Union where there are

2593
02:17:40,560 --> 02:17:43,437
two different systems that have
fundamentally different views on on

2594
02:17:43,520 --> 02:17:46,557
issues, you know, concepts like freedom
and and individual choice and freedom of

2595
02:17:46,640 --> 02:17:50,077
speech and so on. Um, and you know,
we know where the Chinese stand. We're

2596
02:17:50,160 --> 02:17:53,117
still figuring out where we stand, >>
right? There are a lot of So, I'm having

2597
02:17:53,200 --> 02:17:55,597
a lot of schizophrenic I'm having
specifically a lot of schizophrenic

2598
02:17:55,680 --> 02:17:59,037
conversations with people in DC right
now where if I talk to them in China, it

2599
02:17:59,120 --> 02:18:02,557
doesn't come up. They just like hate tech,
they hate American tech companies,

2600
02:18:02,640 --> 02:18:05,197
they hate AI, they hate social media,
they hate this, they hate that, they

2601
02:18:05,280 --> 02:18:07,997
hate crypto, they hate everything,
and they just want to like punish and like

2602
02:18:08,080 --> 02:18:11,517
ban and like they're just like very
very negative. But then if we have a

2603
02:18:11,600 --> 02:18:14,717
conversation a half hour later and we
talk about China, then the conversation

2604
02:18:14,800 --> 02:18:17,037
totally different. Now we need
a partnership between the US government

2605
02:18:17,120 --> 02:18:21,437
and American tech companies to defeat
China. It's it's like the exact opposite

2606
02:18:21,520 --> 02:18:24,797
discussion, right? >> Is that fear or
competitiveness >> on China specifically

2607
02:18:24,880 --> 02:18:27,517
>> on on in terms
of the the US response in

2608
02:18:27,600 --> 02:18:32,237
Washington when you know you bring up
these technologies like you know I'll

2609
02:18:32,320 --> 02:18:35,357
lump crisper in there. Things like
crisper, nuclear power, AI, it all

2610
02:18:35,440 --> 02:18:38,717
sounds very cold,
very dystopian to a lot of people

2611
02:18:38,800 --> 02:18:43,357
>> and yet there are all these benevolent
uses as we've been talking about. And

2612
02:18:43,440 --> 02:18:46,477
then you say you raised the issue
of China and then it sounds like this big

2613
02:18:46,560 --> 02:18:50,797
you know dark cloud emerging and then
all of a sudden you know it's we need to

2614
02:18:50,880 --> 02:18:54,797
galvanize and and develop these
technologies to counter their effort. So

2615
02:18:54,880 --> 02:18:59,277
is it fear of them or is it
competitiveness or both? Well, so

2616
02:18:59,360 --> 02:19:03,677
without them in the picture, um you just
have this basically it's it's there's an

2617
02:19:03,760 --> 02:19:07,517
old bedin uh was a saying is me against
my brother, me and my brother against my

2618
02:19:07,600 --> 02:19:10,717
cousin, me and my brother, my cousin
against, you know, the world, right?

2619
02:19:10,800 --> 02:19:14,637
Like so so with it's it's actually it's
evolution in action if the way I think

2620
02:19:14,720 --> 02:19:17,437
would think about it is if there's no
external threat, then the conflict turns

2621
02:19:17,520 --> 02:19:19,437
inward. >> Um and then
and then at that point

2622
02:19:19,520 --> 02:19:23,437
there's a big fight between specifically
tech and then I was just say generally

2623
02:19:23,520 --> 02:19:26,877
politics and and my interpretation
of that fight is it's a fight for status.

2624
02:19:26,960 --> 02:19:29,917
It's fundamentally a fight for status
and for power, which is like if you're

2625
02:19:30,000 --> 02:19:33,277
in politics, you like the you like the
status quo of how power and status work

2626
02:19:33,360 --> 02:19:36,717
in our society. You don't want these
new technologies to show up and change

2627
02:19:36,800 --> 02:19:39,117
things because change is bad, right?

2628
02:19:39,200 --> 02:19:41,597
Change threatens your position.
It threatens your, you know, the respect

2629
02:19:41,680 --> 02:19:44,877
that people have for you and your control
over things. Um, and so I think

2630
02:19:44,960 --> 02:19:49,037
it's primarily a status fight, which we
could talk about. Um, but the the China

2631
02:19:49,120 --> 02:19:52,157
thing is just like a straight up
geopolitical us versus them. You know,

2632
02:19:52,240 --> 02:19:55,357
like I said, it's like a cold war
scenario. And you know, look, 20 years

2633
02:19:55,440 --> 02:19:58,237
ago, the prevailing view in Washington
was we need to be friends with China,

2634
02:19:58,320 --> 02:20:00,557
right? And we're going to be trading
partners with China. And yes, they're a

2635
02:20:00,640 --> 02:20:03,517
totalitarian dictatorship, but like if
we trade with them over time, they'll

2636
02:20:03,600 --> 02:20:07,757
become more democratic. In the last 5
to 10 years, it's become more and more

2637
02:20:07,840 --> 02:20:11,917
clear that that's just not true. Um,
and now there's a lot of people in both

2638
02:20:12,000 --> 02:20:15,917
political parties in DC who very much
regret that and want to change to much

2639
02:20:16,000 --> 02:20:17,757
more of a sort of a cold war footing.

2640
02:20:17,840 --> 02:20:20,077
Are you willing to comment on Tik Tok

2641
02:20:20,160 --> 02:20:24,877
and technologies that emerge from China
that are in um widespread use within the

2642
02:20:24,960 --> 02:20:28,317
US? Like how much you trust them
or don't trust them? I can um go on record

2643
02:20:28,400 --> 02:20:31,197
myself by saying that early on when Tik

2644
02:20:31,280 --> 02:20:35,757
Tok was released, we were told
as Stanford faculty that we should not and

2645
02:20:35,840 --> 02:20:38,957
could not have Tik Tok
accounts nor WeChat accounts.

2646
02:20:39,040 --> 02:20:42,237
>> Right. >> So start
with there are a lot of really

2647
02:20:42,320 --> 02:20:45,357
bright Chinese tech entrepreneurs
and engineers who are trying to do good

2648
02:20:45,440 --> 02:20:49,277
things. I'm totally absolutely positive
about that. So I think the many of the

2649
02:20:49,360 --> 02:20:52,787
people mean mean very well.
>> But the Chinese have a specific system

2650
02:20:52,870 --> 02:20:56,077
[snorts] and the system
is very clear and unambiguous.

2651
02:20:56,160 --> 02:20:59,837
>> Um and the system is everything in
China is owned by the party. It's not even

2652
02:20:59,920 --> 02:21:01,357
owned by the state. It's owned
by the party. It's owned by the Chinese

2653
02:21:01,440 --> 02:21:03,597
Communist Party. So the Chinese
Communist Party owns everything and they

2654
02:21:03,680 --> 02:21:06,477
control everything. By the way,
it's actually illegal to this day. It's

2655
02:21:06,560 --> 02:21:10,157
illegal for an foreign investor to buy
equity in a Chinese company. There's all

2656
02:21:10,240 --> 02:21:13,517
these like basically legal machinations
that people do to try to do something

2657
02:21:13,600 --> 02:21:16,237
that's like economically equivalent to
that. But it's actually still illegal to

2658
02:21:16,320 --> 02:21:19,037
do that. The chi Chinese have no
intention. The Chinese Communist Party

2659
02:21:19,120 --> 02:21:23,117
has no intention of letting foreigners
own any of China. Like zero intention of

2660
02:21:23,200 --> 02:21:26,077
that. And they they they regularly move
to make sure that that doesn't happen.

2661
02:21:26,160 --> 02:21:29,357
So so so they own everything.
They control everything. So

2662
02:21:29,440 --> 02:21:32,717
>> sorry to interrupt you, but people
in China can invest in American companies

2663
02:21:32,800 --> 02:21:35,597
essentially all the time. >> Well,
they can subject to US government

2664
02:21:35,680 --> 02:21:39,037
constraints. There there is a there
is a US government system that attempts to

2665
02:21:39,120 --> 02:21:42,637
mediate that called CPHAS. Um and there
are more and more there are more and

2666
02:21:42,720 --> 02:21:45,997
more limitations being put on that.
uh if you can get through that approval

2667
02:21:46,080 --> 02:21:47,677
process then legally you can do that

2668
02:21:47,760 --> 02:21:49,117
whereas the same is not true with

2669
02:21:49,200 --> 02:21:53,437
respect to China um and so um so so they

2670
02:21:53,520 --> 02:21:56,957
just have a system and so if you're if
you're the CEO of a Chinese company it's

2671
02:21:57,040 --> 02:22:00,797
not optional if you're the CEO of bite
dance or CEO of 10centent it's not opt

2672
02:22:00,880 --> 02:22:04,157
your relationship with the Chinese
communist party is not optional it's

2673
02:22:04,240 --> 02:22:08,157
required and what's required is you
are a unit of the party and you and your

2674
02:22:08,240 --> 02:22:11,437
company do what the party says and when
the party says we get full access to all

2675
02:22:11,520 --> 02:22:15,197
user data in America you say
When the party says you change the

2676
02:22:15,280 --> 02:22:19,357
algorithm to optimize to a certain
social result, you say yes. Right? So,

2677
02:22:19,440 --> 02:22:22,957
so it's just it's whatever it's whatever
it's whatever Xiinping and his party

2678
02:22:23,040 --> 02:22:27,117
cadres decide and that's what's gets
implemented. If you're the CEO of a

2679
02:22:27,200 --> 02:22:30,717
Chinese tech company, there is a
political officer assigned to you who

2680
02:22:30,800 --> 02:22:34,317
has an office down the hall. Um,
and at any given time he can come down the

2681
02:22:34,400 --> 02:22:36,957
hall, he can grab you out of your staff
meeting or board meeting and he can take

2682
02:22:37,040 --> 02:22:40,237
you down the hall and he can make you
sit for hours and study Marxism and Xi

2683
02:22:40,320 --> 02:22:42,877
Jinping thought and quiz you
on it and test you on it. Wow.

2684
02:22:42,960 --> 02:22:45,037
>> And you'd better pass the test, right?

2685
02:22:45,120 --> 02:22:48,317
So, so it's like a straight political
control [laughter] thing. And then, by

2686
02:22:48,400 --> 02:22:49,837
the way, if you get crossed with them,

2687
02:22:49,920 --> 02:22:52,957
like, you know,

2688
02:22:53,040 --> 02:22:55,997
so when we see um uh tech founders

2689
02:22:56,080 --> 02:23:00,877
getting called up to Congress for um you
know, what looks like interrogation, but

2690
02:23:00,960 --> 02:23:03,997
it's probably pretty light interrogation
compared to what happens in other

2691
02:23:04,080 --> 02:23:05,997
countries. >> Yeah,
it's it's a it's a it's state it's

2692
02:23:06,080 --> 02:23:08,637
state power. They they just they just
have this view of top down state power

2693
02:23:08,720 --> 02:23:11,357
and they view it's that their system
and they view that it's necessary for lots

2694
02:23:11,440 --> 02:23:13,757
of historical and moral reasons that
they've defined and that's how they run

2695
02:23:13,840 --> 02:23:16,237
and then they've got a view that says
how they want to propagate that vision

2696
02:23:16,320 --> 02:23:19,757
outside the country and they have these
programs like belt and road right um

2697
02:23:19,840 --> 02:23:21,357
that basically are intended to propagate

2698
02:23:21,440 --> 02:23:27,197
kind of their vision worldwide um and so
they are who they are like I will say

2699
02:23:27,280 --> 02:23:29,597
that they don't lie about it right
they're they're very straightforward

2700
02:23:29,680 --> 02:23:32,477
>> they give speeches they write books
you can buy Xiinping speeches he goes

2701
02:23:32,560 --> 02:23:35,277
through the whole thing they have they
have their tech 2025 plan talk about you

2702
02:23:35,360 --> 02:23:38,477
know this is like 10 years ago So
their whole AI agenda, it's all in there.

2703
02:23:38,560 --> 02:23:42,957
>> And is there a goal that you know
in 200 years, 300 years that China is the

2704
02:23:43,040 --> 02:23:45,117
superpower controlling everything?

2705
02:23:45,200 --> 02:23:48,077
>> Well, yeah. Or 20 years,
30 years or two years, three years. Yeah.

2706
02:23:48,160 --> 02:23:49,197
>> Well, they got a shorter horizon.

2707
02:23:49,280 --> 02:23:52,157
>> I mean, look, they're Yeah. They're
they're I mean, if if you're it's you

2708
02:23:52,240 --> 02:23:54,317
know, I don't know, everybody's a little
bit like this, I guess, but yeah, if

2709
02:23:54,400 --> 02:23:58,717
you're they want to win. Mhm.
>> Well, the the crisper in humans example

2710
02:23:58,800 --> 02:24:01,517
that I gave earlier was interesting
to me because first of all, I'm a

2711
02:24:01,600 --> 02:24:04,637
neuroscientist and they could have um

2712
02:24:04,720 --> 02:24:09,197
edited any genes, but they chose to edit
the genes involved in um the attempt to

2713
02:24:09,280 --> 02:24:11,597
create supermemory babies, >> right?

2714
02:24:11,680 --> 02:24:13,357
>> Which presumably grow into supermemory

2715
02:24:13,440 --> 02:24:17,037
adults. Um and whether or not they

2716
02:24:17,120 --> 02:24:19,037
succeeded in that isn't clear. Those

2717
02:24:19,120 --> 02:24:24,397
babies are alive and presumably by now
walking talking as far as I know.

2718
02:24:24,480 --> 02:24:25,677
Whether or not they have super memories

2719
02:24:25,760 --> 02:24:29,597
isn't clear, but um China is clearly

2720
02:24:29,680 --> 02:24:33,197
unafraid to augment biology in that way.

2721
02:24:33,280 --> 02:24:38,877
Um and I believe that that's inevitable.

2722
02:24:38,960 --> 02:24:41,837
That's going to happen elsewhere.
Um probably first for the treatment of

2723
02:24:41,920 --> 02:24:46,157
disease, but at some point I'm assuming
people are going to augment biology to

2724
02:24:46,240 --> 02:24:51,117
make smarter kids. I mean, people um not
always, but um often will select mates

2725
02:24:51,200 --> 02:24:54,717
based on the traits they would like
their children to inherit. So this

2726
02:24:54,800 --> 02:24:59,117
happens far more frequently than could
be deemed uh bad because either that or

2727
02:24:59,200 --> 02:25:02,237
people are bad because people do this all
the time. Selecting mates that have

2728
02:25:02,320 --> 02:25:06,157
physical and psychological and cognitive
traits that you would like your

2729
02:25:06,240 --> 02:25:09,037
offspring to have. >> Crisper
is a more targeted approach. Of

2730
02:25:09,120 --> 02:25:12,397
course, you know, the reason I'm kind
of giving this example and and examples

2731
02:25:12,480 --> 02:25:14,797
like it is that I feel like so much of

2732
02:25:14,880 --> 02:25:17,517
the way that um governments and the and

2733
02:25:17,600 --> 02:25:21,997
the public react to technologies is to
just, you know, take that first glimpse

2734
02:25:22,080 --> 02:25:24,397
and it just feels scary.

2735
02:25:24,480 --> 02:25:29,037
>> Um you think about the old Apple ad
of the, you know, 1984 ad. I mean, there

2736
02:25:29,120 --> 02:25:32,637
was one very scary version of the
personal computer and computers and

2737
02:25:32,720 --> 02:25:36,797
robots taking over and everyone like
automatons. And then there was the Apple

2738
02:25:36,880 --> 02:25:39,677
version where it's all about creativity,
love, and peace. And it had the

2739
02:25:39,760 --> 02:25:41,597
pseudocychedelic California thing going

2740
02:25:41,680 --> 02:25:45,917
for it. Again, great marketing seems to

2741
02:25:46,000 --> 02:25:48,397
convert people's thinking about

2742
02:25:48,480 --> 02:25:51,197
technology such that what was once

2743
02:25:51,280 --> 02:25:56,557
viewed as very scary and dangerous
and dystopian is like an oasis of

2744
02:25:56,640 --> 02:25:59,597
opportunity. >> So why
are people so afraid of new

2745
02:25:59,680 --> 02:26:03,357
technologies? So, this is the thing
I've tried to understand for a long time

2746
02:26:03,440 --> 02:26:07,757
because the history is so clear. Um,
and the history basically is every new

2747
02:26:07,840 --> 02:26:11,517
technology is greeted by what's called
a moral panic. Um, and so it's basically

2748
02:26:11,600 --> 02:26:15,197
this like hysterical freakout of some
kind that causes people to basically

2749
02:26:15,280 --> 02:26:18,157
predict the end of the world.
And you go back in time and actually this

2750
02:26:18,240 --> 02:26:21,357
historical sort of effect, it happens
even in things now where you just go

2751
02:26:21,440 --> 02:26:24,717
back and it's ludicrous, right? And so
you mentioned earlier the satanic panic

2752
02:26:24,800 --> 02:26:27,997
of the of the 80s and you know
the concern around like heavy metal music,

2753
02:26:28,080 --> 02:26:30,877
right? Before that, there was like
a freakout around comic books, you know,

2754
02:26:30,960 --> 02:26:34,877
in the 50s. There was a freakout around
jazz music in the 20s and 30s. You know,

2755
02:26:34,960 --> 02:26:38,397
it's devil music. Um, you know, there
was a freakout, the arrival of bicycles

2756
02:26:38,480 --> 02:26:40,717
caused a moral panic
in the like 1860s, 187.

2757
02:26:40,800 --> 02:26:42,637
>> Bicycles. >> Bicycles.
Yeah. So, there was this thing

2758
02:26:42,720 --> 02:26:46,877
at the time. So, bicycles were the first
um they were the first very easy to use

2759
02:26:46,960 --> 02:26:50,717
personal transportation thing that
basically let kids travel between towns

2760
02:26:50,800 --> 02:26:54,077
um uh you know, quickly um without any
overhead, you know, to take care take

2761
02:26:54,160 --> 02:26:54,200
care take care take care take care take
care take care take care take care take

2762
02:26:54,160 --> 02:26:57,597
care take care of a horse, just jump
in a bike and go. Um and so it was there

2763
02:26:57,680 --> 02:27:00,637
was a historical panic specifically
around at the time young women um who

2764
02:27:00,720 --> 02:27:04,557
for the first time were able to venture
outside the confines of the town to

2765
02:27:04,640 --> 02:27:08,317
maybe go have a boyfriend in another town.
Um and so the magazines at the

2766
02:27:08,400 --> 02:27:11,197
time ran all these stories on this
phenomenon medical phenomenon called

2767
02:27:11,280 --> 02:27:15,757
bicycle face. And the idea of bicycle
face was the exertion caused by pedaling

2768
02:27:15,840 --> 02:27:18,797
a bicycle would cause your face your face
would grimace and then if you were

2769
02:27:18,880 --> 02:27:22,397
on the bicycle for too long your face
would lock into place and then right and

2770
02:27:22,480 --> 02:27:25,837
then [laughter] right and then you
would be you would be unattractive and

2771
02:27:25,920 --> 02:27:28,477
therefore of course unable
to then you know get married.

2772
02:27:28,560 --> 02:27:33,757
>> Um uh cars there was a moral panic
around car red flag laws. There were all

2773
02:27:33,840 --> 02:27:36,237
these laws that greed the the automobile.
Automobile freaked people

2774
02:27:36,320 --> 02:27:39,837
out. So there are all these laws if in
the early days of the automobile um in a

2775
02:27:39,920 --> 02:27:43,917
lot of places you had to um you
would take a ride an automobile uh and

2776
02:27:44,000 --> 02:27:46,317
automobiles they broke down all the time.
So it would be you only rich

2777
02:27:46,400 --> 02:27:49,997
people had automobiles be you and your
mechanic [laughter] in in the car right

2778
02:27:50,080 --> 02:27:51,757
for when it broke down and then you had

2779
02:27:51,840 --> 02:27:54,797
to hire another guy um to walk 200 yards

2780
02:27:54,880 --> 02:27:58,957
in front of the car with a red flag.
Um and he had to wave the red flag and so

2781
02:27:59,040 --> 02:28:01,757
you could only drive as fast as he could
walk because the red flag was to warn

2782
02:28:01,840 --> 02:28:03,677
people that the that the car was coming.

2783
02:28:03,760 --> 02:28:06,557
And and then and then in I think it
was Pennsylvania, they had the most

2784
02:28:06,640 --> 02:28:10,317
draconian version which was uh they were
very worried about the cars scaring the

2785
02:28:10,400 --> 02:28:14,957
horses. Um and so there was a law
that said if you saw a horse coming um you

2786
02:28:15,040 --> 02:28:18,237
need to stop the car, you had
to disassemble the car and you had to hide

2787
02:28:18,320 --> 02:28:22,477
the pieces of the car behind the nearest
hay bale, >> wait for the horse to go by

2788
02:28:22,560 --> 02:28:24,157
>> and and then you
could put your car back

2789
02:28:24,240 --> 02:28:27,997
together. So So anyways, just example,
there's electric lighting. there was a

2790
02:28:28,080 --> 02:28:30,637
panic around like whether was this going
to like completely ruin you know this is

2791
02:28:30,720 --> 02:28:32,957
going to completely ruin like the romance
of the dark and it was going to

2792
02:28:33,040 --> 02:28:35,837
cause you know you know a whole new
kind of like terrible civilization where

2793
02:28:35,920 --> 02:28:39,197
everything is always brightly lit so
there's just like all these examples and

2794
02:28:39,280 --> 02:28:42,157
so it's like okay what on earth
is happening that this is always what

2795
02:28:42,240 --> 02:28:45,757
happens and so I finally found this book
that I think has a has a good model for

2796
02:28:45,840 --> 02:28:49,597
it is called men machines in modern
times and it's written by this MIT

2797
02:28:49,680 --> 02:28:53,437
professor like 60 years ago so it it
predates the internet um but it uses a

2798
02:28:53,520 --> 02:28:57,277
lot of historical examples and what
he says basically is he says There's

2799
02:28:57,360 --> 02:28:58,797
there's actually a three-stage response.

2800
02:28:58,880 --> 02:29:01,597
There's a three-stage societal
response to new technologies. It's very

2801
02:29:01,680 --> 02:29:05,997
predictable. He said stage one is um
basically just denial. Uh just ignore

2802
02:29:06,080 --> 02:29:08,637
like we just like don't pay attention to
this. Nobody takes it seriously. We just

2803
02:29:08,720 --> 02:29:12,557
like there's just a blackout on the whole
topic. Um he says stage uh that's

2804
02:29:12,640 --> 02:29:16,637
stage one. Stage two is rational
counterargument. Um so stage two is

2805
02:29:16,720 --> 02:29:19,357
where you line up all the different
reasons why this can't possibly work. It

2806
02:29:19,440 --> 02:29:22,877
can't possibly ever get you know cheap
or you know this that you know it's not

2807
02:29:22,960 --> 02:29:24,877
fast enough or whatever the thing is.

2808
02:29:24,960 --> 02:29:29,197
And then he says stage three he says
is when the name calling begins. Um so he

2809
02:29:29,280 --> 02:29:33,677
says stage three is like when right
right so when they failed to ignore it

2810
02:29:33,760 --> 02:29:35,837
and they failed to argue
society out of it.

2811
02:29:35,920 --> 02:29:37,757
>> I love it. >> They move
to the name calling. Right.

2812
02:29:37,840 --> 02:29:40,557
And what's the name calling? The name
calling is this is evil. This is moral

2813
02:29:40,640 --> 02:29:41,997
panic. This is evil. This is terrible.

2814
02:29:42,080 --> 02:29:44,877
This is awful. This is going to destroy
everything. Like don't you understand

2815
02:29:44,960 --> 02:29:48,157
like you know all this you know this is
just like this is this is horrifying and

2816
02:29:48,240 --> 02:29:51,117
you you know the person working on being
reckless and evil and you know all all

2817
02:29:51,200 --> 02:29:54,557
this stuff and you must be stopped.
and and he said the reason for that is

2818
02:29:54,640 --> 02:29:57,677
because basically fundamentally what
these things are is they're a war over

2819
02:29:57,760 --> 02:30:01,357
status. Um it's a it's a it's a war over
status and therefore a war over power

2820
02:30:01,440 --> 02:30:05,677
and and then of course ult ultimately
money but but status human status is the

2821
02:30:05,760 --> 02:30:09,597
thing and so and because what he says
is what what is the societal impact of a

2822
02:30:09,680 --> 02:30:13,277
new technology? The societal impact of
a new technology is it reorders status in

2823
02:30:13,360 --> 02:30:16,957
the society. So the people who are
specialists in that technology become

2824
02:30:17,040 --> 02:30:20,077
high status and the people who are
specialists in the previous way of doing

2825
02:30:20,160 --> 02:30:24,317
things become low status and generally
people don't adapt. Right? Generally if

2826
02:30:24,400 --> 02:30:27,597
you're the kind of person who is high
status because you're you're you're an

2827
02:30:27,680 --> 02:30:30,877
evolved adaptation to an existing
technology, you're probably not the kind

2828
02:30:30,960 --> 02:30:33,677
of person that's going to enthus
enthusiastically try to replant yourself

2829
02:30:33,760 --> 02:30:36,477
onto a new technology.
>> And so and so this is like every

2830
02:30:36,560 --> 02:30:39,357
politician who's just like in a complete
state of panic about social media. Like

2831
02:30:39,440 --> 02:30:42,157
why are they so freaked out about social
media is because they all know that the

2832
02:30:42,240 --> 02:30:44,877
whole nature of modern politics
has changed. the entire battery of

2833
02:30:44,960 --> 02:30:48,477
techniques that you use to get elected
before social media are now obsolete.

2834
02:30:48,560 --> 02:30:51,277
Obviously, the best new politicians
of the future are going to be 100%

2835
02:30:51,360 --> 02:30:54,157
creations of social media
>> and podcast and podcast.

2836
02:30:54,240 --> 02:30:57,197
>> And we're seeing this now as we head
towards the next presidential election

2837
02:30:57,280 --> 02:31:00,077
that podcasts uh clearly are going to be

2838
02:31:00,160 --> 02:31:04,477
featured very heavily in that next
election because long form content is a

2839
02:31:04,560 --> 02:31:07,197
whole different landscape. >> So,
this is exact. So this is the this

2840
02:31:07,280 --> 02:31:10,477
is so so Rogan Rogan's had like what
like he's had like Bernie, he's had like

2841
02:31:10,560 --> 02:31:14,157
Tulsi, he's had like a whole series of >>
RK most recently and that's created a

2842
02:31:14,240 --> 02:31:16,797
lot of >> controversies.
But also my understanding

2843
02:31:16,880 --> 02:31:18,077
he's I'm sure he's invited everybody.

2844
02:31:18,160 --> 02:31:20,317
I'm sure he I'm sure he'd love to have
Biden on. I'm sure he'd love to have

2845
02:31:20,400 --> 02:31:22,477
Trump on. I'm sure he >> You'd
have to ask him. I mean I think

2846
02:31:22,560 --> 02:31:25,117
that um you know every podcaster has

2847
02:31:25,200 --> 02:31:27,517
their own ethos around who they invite

2848
02:31:27,600 --> 02:31:32,317
on and why and how. Um, so I
certainly can't speak for him, but um,

2849
02:31:32,400 --> 02:31:36,717
>> but I have to imagine that any
opportunity to have true long- form

2850
02:31:36,800 --> 02:31:40,637
discourse that would allow people
to really understand people's positions on

2851
02:31:40,720 --> 02:31:44,877
things, >> I have to imagine that he
would be in favor of that thing.

2852
02:31:44,960 --> 02:31:46,157
>> Yeah. Or somebody
else would, right? You

2853
02:31:46,240 --> 02:31:50,557
know, some some other top podcast would,
right? And so so there's a if my point

2854
02:31:50,640 --> 02:31:53,277
Exactly. I totally agree with you,
but my point is if if you're a politician,

2855
02:31:53,360 --> 02:31:57,037
if you're if you're let's say a legacy
politician, right? You have the option

2856
02:31:57,120 --> 02:32:00,877
of embracing the new technology. You can
do it anytime you want, right? But you

2857
02:32:00,960 --> 02:32:05,277
you don't they're not they won't like
they won't do it. And why won't they do

2858
02:32:05,360 --> 02:32:07,597
it? Well, okay, first of all, they
want to ignore it, right? They want to

2859
02:32:07,680 --> 02:32:10,477
pretend that things aren't changing,
you know? Second is they want like have

2860
02:32:10,560 --> 02:32:13,277
rational counter arguments for like why
the existing campaign system works the

2861
02:32:13,360 --> 02:32:15,837
way that it does and this and that and
the existing media networks and like

2862
02:32:15,920 --> 02:32:18,317
here's how you like do things and here's
how you give speeches and here's the

2863
02:32:18,400 --> 02:32:20,557
clothes you wear and the tie and the
thing and the pocket square and like

2864
02:32:20,640 --> 02:32:23,437
you've got your whole system. It's how
you succeeded was coming up through that

2865
02:32:23,520 --> 02:32:26,237
system. So you've got all your arguments
as to why that won't work anymore. And

2866
02:32:26,320 --> 02:32:29,757
then and then we've now proceeded to
the the name calling phase, which is now

2867
02:32:29,840 --> 02:32:33,357
it's evil, right? Now it's evil
for somebody to show up in, you know, on a

2868
02:32:33,440 --> 02:32:37,197
on a stream, god forbid, for three hours
and actually say what they think, right?

2869
02:32:37,280 --> 02:32:39,997
And it's going to destroy society,
right? So it's exactly right. It's like

2870
02:32:40,080 --> 02:32:43,677
it's it's a it's a classic example
of this pattern. And anyway, so Morrison

2871
02:32:43,760 --> 02:32:47,837
says in the book, um, basically this
is the forever pattern. Like this will

2872
02:32:47,920 --> 02:32:50,957
never change. This will this is one
of those things where you can learn about

2873
02:32:51,040 --> 02:32:53,677
it and still nothing the entire world
could learn about this and still nothing

2874
02:32:53,760 --> 02:32:57,437
changes because at the end of the day
it's not it has it's not the tech that's

2875
02:32:57,520 --> 02:33:01,037
the question it's it's
the reordering of status.

2876
02:33:01,120 --> 02:33:04,797
>> Um I have a lot of thoughts about the
podcast component. Uh I'll just say this

2877
02:33:04,880 --> 02:33:07,037
because I want to get back to um the

2878
02:33:07,120 --> 02:33:10,317
topic of innovation of technology. Um

2879
02:33:10,400 --> 02:33:14,157
but on a long form podcast there's no um

2880
02:33:14,240 --> 02:33:16,717
safe zone. you know, the person can get

2881
02:33:16,800 --> 02:33:19,117
up and walk out, but if the person

2882
02:33:19,200 --> 02:33:21,517
interviewing them, and certainly Joe is

2883
02:33:21,600 --> 02:33:24,557
um the best of the very best, if not the

2884
02:33:24,640 --> 02:33:29,757
most skilled podcaster in the entire
universe at continuing to press people

2885
02:33:29,840 --> 02:33:33,517
on specific topics when they're, you know,
trying to bob and weave and wrigle

2886
02:33:33,600 --> 02:33:36,157
wrigle out. He'll just keep, you know,

2887
02:33:36,240 --> 02:33:40,637
either drilling or alter the question
somewhat in a way that forces them to

2888
02:33:40,720 --> 02:33:42,477
finally come up with an answer of some

2889
02:33:42,560 --> 02:33:45,677
sort. And I think that probably um puts

2890
02:33:45,760 --> 02:33:50,157
certain people's cortisol levels through
the roof um such that they just would

2891
02:33:50,240 --> 02:33:52,157
never go on there. >> I think
there's another deeper question

2892
02:33:52,240 --> 02:33:54,957
also or another question along with that
which is how many people actually have

2893
02:33:55,040 --> 02:33:58,397
something to say [laughter]

2894
02:33:58,480 --> 02:34:01,997
>> real substance like how many people
can actually talk in a way that's actually

2895
02:34:02,080 --> 02:34:04,717
interesting to anybody
else for any length of time.

2896
02:34:04,800 --> 02:34:06,237
>> Like how much
substance is there really?

2897
02:34:06,320 --> 02:34:09,997
And like a lot of historical politics
was to be able to manufacture a facade

2898
02:34:10,080 --> 02:34:12,957
where you honestly
as far as I you can't tell

2899
02:34:13,040 --> 02:34:15,437
>> like how how deep the thoughts are.
Like even if they have deep thoughts like

2900
02:34:15,520 --> 02:34:16,717
it's it's kept it's kept away from you.

2901
02:34:16,800 --> 02:34:18,557
They would certainly never cop to it.

2902
02:34:18,640 --> 02:34:22,477
>> It's going to be an interesting next
what is it about uh you know 20 months

2903
02:34:22,560 --> 02:34:24,717
or so um leading into the next election.

2904
02:34:24,800 --> 02:34:26,797
>> Panic and the name calling
have already started. So yeah it's

2905
02:34:26,880 --> 02:34:31,437
>> yeah I was gonna say this list
of three things denial um you know uh the

2906
02:34:31,520 --> 02:34:35,277
counterargument and name calling.
It seems like with AI um it's already just

2907
02:34:35,360 --> 02:34:37,277
jumped to numbers two and three.

2908
02:34:37,360 --> 02:34:38,877
>> That's correct. >> Right.
We're already at two and three

2909
02:34:38,960 --> 02:34:40,397
and it's kind of leaning three.

2910
02:34:40,480 --> 02:34:42,157
>> Yes. >> Yeah. That's correct.

2911
02:34:42,240 --> 02:34:46,637
>> Well, so AI is unusual just because
um it had So new technologies that take

2912
02:34:46,720 --> 02:34:49,117
off, they almost always have a prehistory.
They almost always have a 30

2913
02:34:49,200 --> 02:34:51,677
or 40 year history where people tried
and failed to get them to work before

2914
02:34:51,760 --> 02:34:55,277
they took off. AI has an 80-year
prehistory. So it has a very long one.

2915
02:34:55,360 --> 02:34:57,197
>> Um and then it it it just it all of a

2916
02:34:57,280 --> 02:35:02,477
sudden started to work dramatically well
like seemingly overnight. And so it it

2917
02:35:02,560 --> 02:35:05,437
went from basically it as far as most
people were concerned it went from it

2918
02:35:05,520 --> 02:35:08,237
doesn't work at all to it works
incredibly well in one step and that

2919
02:35:08,320 --> 02:35:11,037
almost never happens. And so and so
I actually think that's exactly what's

2920
02:35:11,120 --> 02:35:13,517
happening. I think it's actually
speedrunning this progression just just

2921
02:35:13,600 --> 02:35:17,277
because if you use midjourney or you
use GPT or any of these things for five

2922
02:35:17,360 --> 02:35:20,157
minutes you're just like wow like
obviously this thing is going to be like

2923
02:35:20,240 --> 02:35:22,957
the obviously in my life this is going
to be the best thing ever. Like this is

2924
02:35:23,040 --> 02:35:25,437
amazing. There's all these ways
that I can use it and then it and then

2925
02:35:25,520 --> 02:35:28,157
therefore immediately you're like
oh my god this is going to transform

2926
02:35:28,240 --> 02:35:32,397
everything. Therefore >> step three.
Mhm. Right. Straight to the

2927
02:35:32,480 --> 02:35:37,197
name calling. Exactly.
>> In the face of all this, uh there are

2928
02:35:37,280 --> 02:35:41,757
innovators out there. Maybe they are
aware they are innovators. Um uh maybe

2929
02:35:41,840 --> 02:35:43,597
they are already starting companies or

2930
02:35:43,680 --> 02:35:46,637
maybe uh they are just some uh young or

2931
02:35:46,720 --> 02:35:49,757
older person who has these five traits

2932
02:35:49,840 --> 02:35:52,237
in abundance or doesn't but knows

2933
02:35:52,320 --> 02:35:54,237
somebody who does and is partnering with

2934
02:35:54,320 --> 02:35:58,397
them in some sort of idea. Um, and you

2935
02:35:58,480 --> 02:36:02,077
have an amazing track record at
identifying these people. Um, I think in

2936
02:36:02,160 --> 02:36:05,917
part because you have
those same traits yourself.

2937
02:36:06,000 --> 02:36:10,717
I've heard you say the following. Uh,
the world is a very malleable place. If

2938
02:36:10,800 --> 02:36:14,397
you know what you want and you go
for it with maximum energy and drive and

2939
02:36:14,480 --> 02:36:18,157
passion, the world will often
reconfigure itself around you much more

2940
02:36:18,240 --> 02:36:20,797
quickly and easily than you would think.

2941
02:36:20,880 --> 02:36:23,117
That's a remarkable quote um because it

2942
02:36:23,200 --> 02:36:26,477
says at least two things uh to me. One

2943
02:36:26,560 --> 02:36:31,117
is that um you have a very clear
understanding of the inner workings of

2944
02:36:31,200 --> 02:36:33,437
these great innovators. We talked a

2945
02:36:33,520 --> 02:36:35,597
little bit about that earlier, these

2946
02:36:35,680 --> 02:36:38,797
five traits, etc. But that also you have

2947
02:36:38,880 --> 02:36:43,037
an intense understanding of the world
landscape. And the way that we've been

2948
02:36:43,120 --> 02:36:46,957
talking about it for the last hour or so
is that it is a really intense and kind

2949
02:36:47,040 --> 02:36:51,037
of oppressive landscape. You've got
countries and organizations and elites

2950
02:36:51,120 --> 02:36:53,917
and uh journalists that you know that

2951
02:36:54,000 --> 02:36:59,117
are trying to not necessarily trying but
are suppressing the innovation process.

2952
02:36:59,200 --> 02:37:02,477
I mean that's sort of the the picture
that I'm getting. So it's like we're

2953
02:37:02,560 --> 02:37:06,077
trying to innovate inside of a vice
that's getting progressively tighter.

2954
02:37:06,160 --> 02:37:09,117
And yet this quote argues that it is the

2955
02:37:09,200 --> 02:37:13,517
the person the boy or girl man or woman

2956
02:37:13,600 --> 02:37:16,237
who says well you know what that all

2957
02:37:16,320 --> 02:37:19,197
might be true but my view of the world

2958
02:37:19,280 --> 02:37:23,437
is the way the world's going to bend
or I'm going to create a dent in that vice

2959
02:37:23,520 --> 02:37:27,117
that allows me to exist the way that I
want or you know what I'm actually going

2960
02:37:27,200 --> 02:37:29,437
to uncurl the vice the other direction

2961
02:37:29,520 --> 02:37:32,237
and so um I'm at once picking up a sort

2962
02:37:32,320 --> 02:37:36,557
of um pessimistic glass half empty uh

2963
02:37:36,640 --> 02:37:38,317
view of the world as well as a glass

2964
02:37:38,400 --> 02:37:43,757
half full view. And um so tell me about
that and and tell if you would could you

2965
02:37:43,840 --> 02:37:45,277
tell us about that from the perspective

2966
02:37:45,360 --> 02:37:47,197
of someone listening who is thinking,

2967
02:37:47,280 --> 02:37:51,037
you know, I've got an idea and I know

2968
02:37:51,120 --> 02:37:53,437
it's a really good one cuz I just know.

2969
02:37:53,520 --> 02:37:57,437
I might not have the confidence
of extrinsic reward yet, but I just know

2970
02:37:57,520 --> 02:37:59,757
there's a seed of something. Um what

2971
02:37:59,840 --> 02:38:02,637
does it take to foster that? and um how

2972
02:38:02,720 --> 02:38:06,797
do we foster real innovation in the
landscape that we're talking about?

2973
02:38:06,880 --> 02:38:09,917
>> Yeah. So part is I think you just I
think one of the ways to square it is I

2974
02:38:10,000 --> 02:38:13,277
think you you as the innovator need
to be signed up to fight the fight, right?

2975
02:38:13,360 --> 02:38:16,317
So and and again this is where like the
fictional portrayals of startups I think

2976
02:38:16,400 --> 02:38:19,117
take people off course or even
scientists or whatever because they the

2977
02:38:19,200 --> 02:38:22,877
when when there's great success stories
they get kind of pritified uh after the

2978
02:38:22,960 --> 02:38:26,157
fact um and they made they get made
to be like cute and fun and it's like yeah

2979
02:38:26,240 --> 02:38:28,877
no like if you talk to anybody who
actually did any of these things like no

2980
02:38:28,960 --> 02:38:31,837
there was it was just like these things
are always just like brutal exercises

2981
02:38:31,920 --> 02:38:34,797
and just like sheer willpower
and fighting you know fighting fighting

2982
02:38:34,880 --> 02:38:38,317
forces that are trying to get you. So,
um, so, so part of it is you just, you

2983
02:38:38,400 --> 02:38:40,557
have to be signed up for the fight.
And this kind of goes to the

2984
02:38:40,640 --> 02:38:44,477
conscientiousness thing we're talking
about. We also, my partner Ben uses the

2985
02:38:44,560 --> 02:38:48,157
term courage a lot, right? Which is some
combination of like just stubbornness,

2986
02:38:48,240 --> 02:38:51,437
but coupled with like
a willingness to take pain

2987
02:38:51,520 --> 02:38:53,917
>> um, and not stop um,
and, you know, have

2988
02:38:54,000 --> 02:38:56,877
people think very bad things of you for
a long time uh, until it turns out, you

2989
02:38:56,960 --> 02:39:00,157
know, you hopefully prove yourself prove
yourself correct. Um, and so you have to

2990
02:39:00,240 --> 02:39:03,357
be willing to do that. Like it's it's
a these are it's a contact sport. Like

2991
02:39:03,440 --> 02:39:04,797
it's these aren't easy roads, right?

2992
02:39:04,880 --> 02:39:08,397
It's a contact sport. So, you have
to be signed up uh for the fight. The

2993
02:39:08,480 --> 02:39:11,117
advantage that you have as an innovator

2994
02:39:11,200 --> 02:39:16,077
um is is that at the end of the day,
the truth actually matters. Um and all the

2995
02:39:16,160 --> 02:39:19,597
arguments in the world, the classic
Victor Hugo quote is there's nothing

2996
02:39:19,680 --> 02:39:23,517
more powerful in the world than
an idea whose time has come, right? Like

2997
02:39:23,600 --> 02:39:27,997
>> if if it's real, right? And and this
is so just pure substance. If the thing is

2998
02:39:28,080 --> 02:39:31,997
real, if the idea is real, like if
it's a legitimately good scientific

2999
02:39:32,080 --> 02:39:36,317
discovery, you know, about how nature
works, if it's a new invention, um if

3000
02:39:36,400 --> 02:39:40,717
it's a new work of art, and if it's real,
you know, then you you you do at

3001
02:39:40,800 --> 02:39:44,157
the end of the day, you have that on
your side. Um and all of the people who

3002
02:39:44,240 --> 02:39:47,037
are fighting you and arguing with you
and telling you no, they don't have that

3003
02:39:47,120 --> 02:39:50,477
on their side, right? It's not like
they're showing up with some other thing

3004
02:39:50,560 --> 02:39:52,957
and they're like, "My thing is better
than your thing." Like, that's not the

3005
02:39:53,040 --> 02:39:57,037
main problem, right? The main problem
is like, "I have a thing. I'm convinced.

3006
02:39:57,120 --> 02:39:59,757
Everybody else is telling me it's
stupid, wrong, it should be illegal,

3007
02:39:59,840 --> 02:40:03,437
whatever the thing is, but at the end
of the day, I still have the thing, right?

3008
02:40:03,520 --> 02:40:06,477
And so, so, so at the end of the day,
like, yeah, the the truth really

3009
02:40:06,560 --> 02:40:09,757
matters. The substance really matters
if it's real. It's really, I give you an

3010
02:40:09,840 --> 02:40:13,757
example. It's really hard historically
to find an example of a new technology

3011
02:40:13,840 --> 02:40:16,797
that came into the world
that was then pulled back.

3012
02:40:16,880 --> 02:40:19,757
>> And, you know, and we could, you know,
nuclear is maybe maybe an example of

3013
02:40:19,840 --> 02:40:22,077
that, but even still, there are still,
you know, nuclear there are still

3014
02:40:22,160 --> 02:40:25,997
nuclear plants like running today. Um,
you know, that that that still exists.

3015
02:40:26,080 --> 02:40:29,437
Um, you know, I would say the same thing
as scientific like at least I may as you

3016
02:40:29,520 --> 02:40:31,837
don't know I don't know of any
scientific discovery that was made and

3017
02:40:31,920 --> 02:40:35,437
then people like I I know I know
there are areas of science that are not

3018
02:40:35,520 --> 02:40:40,637
politically correct to talk about today
but every scientist knows the truth like

3019
02:40:40,720 --> 02:40:43,837
the truth is still the truth. I mean
even the geneticists in the Soviet Union

3020
02:40:43,920 --> 02:40:46,557
who were forced to buy into lenoism like
knew the whole time that it was wrong.

3021
02:40:46,640 --> 02:40:48,717
Like that I'm completely convinced of.

3022
02:40:48,800 --> 02:40:52,157
>> Yeah. They couldn't delude themselves
especially because the basic training

3023
02:40:52,240 --> 02:40:55,757
that one gets in any field establishes
some core truths upon which even the

3024
02:40:55,840 --> 02:41:00,157
crazy ideas have to rest and if they
don't as you pointed out um things fall

3025
02:41:00,240 --> 02:41:01,597
to pieces. I would say that even the

3026
02:41:01,680 --> 02:41:04,637
technologies that um did not pan out and

3027
02:41:04,720 --> 02:41:07,757
in some cases were disastrous but that

3028
02:41:07,840 --> 02:41:12,637
were great ideas at the
beginning are starting to pan

3029
02:41:12,720 --> 02:41:16,077
out. So the example I'll give is that
most people are aware of the Elizabeth

3030
02:41:16,160 --> 02:41:19,117
Holmes therronos debacle [clears throat]

3031
02:41:19,200 --> 02:41:22,077
to put it lightly you know analyzing uh

3032
02:41:22,160 --> 02:41:26,157
what's in a single drop of blood as a way
to analyze hormones and disease and

3033
02:41:26,240 --> 02:41:29,437
antibodies etc.
I mean that's a great idea.

3034
02:41:29,520 --> 02:41:33,117
>> I mean it's a terrific idea as opposed
to having a flammus come to your house

3035
02:41:33,200 --> 02:41:35,757
or you have to go in and you get tapped
with a you know and they're pulling

3036
02:41:35,840 --> 02:41:38,557
vials and the whole thing. there's now a

3037
02:41:38,640 --> 02:41:41,517
company um born out of Stanford that is

3038
02:41:41,600 --> 02:41:44,637
doing exactly what she sought to do

3039
02:41:44,720 --> 02:41:48,557
except that at least the courts ruled
that um she fudged the thing and is

3040
02:41:48,640 --> 02:41:50,637
that's why she's in jail right now. Um

3041
02:41:50,720 --> 02:41:54,397
but the idea of getting a wide array of

3042
02:41:54,480 --> 02:41:59,117
markers from a single drop of blood
is an absolutely spectacular idea. The

3043
02:41:59,200 --> 02:42:01,997
biggest challenge that company is going
to confront is the idea that it's just

3044
02:42:02,080 --> 02:42:06,317
the next Theronos. But if they've got the
thing >> and they're not fudging it as it

3045
02:42:06,400 --> 02:42:08,557
apparently Theronos was,

3046
02:42:08,640 --> 02:42:12,317
>> um I think um everything will work out.

3047
02:42:12,400 --> 02:42:14,317
Allah Victor Hugo. >> Yeah. Exactly.

3048
02:42:14,400 --> 02:42:15,997
>> Yeah. >> Yeah.
Because who wants to go back? Like

3049
02:42:16,080 --> 02:42:19,597
when if they if they if they
get to the work if it's real,

3050
02:42:19,680 --> 02:42:21,437
>> it's going to be
like this is the thing.

3051
02:42:21,520 --> 02:42:26,157
The the opponents the opponents, they're
not bringing their own ideas. [laughter]

3052
02:42:26,240 --> 02:42:28,717
Like they're not bringing their oh
my idea is better than yours. Like that's

3053
02:42:28,800 --> 02:42:33,997
not what's happening. They're bringing
the silence or counterargument, right,

3054
02:42:34,080 --> 02:42:37,677
or name calling. >> Well,
this is why I think um people who

3055
02:42:37,760 --> 02:42:40,877
need to be loved probably stand a um

3056
02:42:40,960 --> 02:42:44,877
reduced chance of success.
>> Um and maybe that's also why having

3057
02:42:44,960 --> 02:42:48,637
people close to you that do love you
and allowing that to be sufficient

3058
02:42:48,720 --> 02:42:52,157
>> can be very beneficial. This gets
back to the idea of partnership and family

3059
02:42:52,240 --> 02:42:57,037
around innovators. Um because if you
feel filled up by those people local to

3060
02:42:57,120 --> 02:43:00,157
you, >> Yep. you know,
in your home, then you

3061
02:43:00,240 --> 02:43:03,437
don't need people on the internet saying
nice things about you or your ideas

3062
02:43:03,520 --> 02:43:08,397
because you're good and you can forge
forward. Um, another question about

3063
02:43:08,480 --> 02:43:11,517
innovation is the teams that you
assemble around you. And you've talked

3064
02:43:11,600 --> 02:43:13,757
before about um the sort of small

3065
02:43:13,840 --> 02:43:19,037
squadron model um you know sort of David
and Goliath uh examples as well where

3066
02:43:19,120 --> 02:43:20,637
you know a small group of individuals

3067
02:43:20,720 --> 02:43:23,837
can um create a technology that frankly

3068
02:43:23,920 --> 02:43:26,477
outdoes what a you know a giant like

3069
02:43:26,560 --> 02:43:31,517
Facebook might be doing or what um
any other large company might be doing.

3070
02:43:31,600 --> 02:43:34,957
There are a lot of theories as to why
that would happen, but I know you have

3071
02:43:35,040 --> 02:43:37,837
some unique theories. Um why do you

3072
02:43:37,920 --> 02:43:41,997
think small groups can
defeat large organizations?

3073
02:43:42,080 --> 02:43:46,157
>> So the conventional explanation
is I think correct and it's just that um

3074
02:43:46,240 --> 02:43:48,957
large organizations have a lot
of advantages but they just have a very

3075
02:43:49,040 --> 02:43:52,237
hard time um actually executing anything

3076
02:43:52,320 --> 02:43:56,797
because of all the overhead.
So large organizations have combinatorial

3077
02:43:56,880 --> 02:43:59,197
communication overhead, right?
The the number of people who have to be

3078
02:43:59,280 --> 02:44:02,237
consulted, who have to agree on things
gets to be staggering. The amount of

3079
02:44:02,320 --> 02:44:05,837
time it takes to schedule the meeting
gets to be staggering. You know, you get

3080
02:44:05,920 --> 02:44:08,477
these really big companies and they have
some issue they're dealing with. And it

3081
02:44:08,560 --> 02:44:11,677
takes like a month to schedule the
premeating to like plan for the meeting,

3082
02:44:11,760 --> 02:44:13,997
which is going to happen two months later,
which is then going to result in

3083
02:44:14,080 --> 02:44:17,357
a post meeting, which will then result
in a board presentation, which will then

3084
02:44:17,440 --> 02:44:19,357
result in a planning offsite.
Right. So they're

3085
02:44:19,440 --> 02:44:21,997
>> I thought I thought academia was bad,
but what you're describing is giving me

3086
02:44:22,080 --> 02:44:25,757
hives. Kafkovka was Kafka was a
documentary. Yeah. Like this is this is

3087
02:44:25,840 --> 02:44:28,477
Yeah. So it it's just like these
these are I mean look you'd have these

3088
02:44:28,560 --> 02:44:31,517
organizations at 100,000 people or more
like you're you're more of a nation

3089
02:44:31,600 --> 02:44:35,197
state than a than a than a than a company.
Um and you've got all these

3090
02:44:35,280 --> 02:44:37,597
competing internal you know it's the
Bedwin thing I was saying before. You've

3091
02:44:37,680 --> 02:44:40,717
got all these internal like at most big
companies your internal enemies are like

3092
02:44:40,800 --> 02:44:43,437
way more dangerous to you
than anybody on the outside.

3093
02:44:43,520 --> 02:44:45,837
>> Can you elaborate on that?
>> Oh yeah. Yeah. your big compet the big

3094
02:44:45,920 --> 02:44:48,317
compet at a big company the big
competition is for the for the next

3095
02:44:48,400 --> 02:44:51,517
promotion right and and and the enemy
for the next promotion is the next

3096
02:44:51,600 --> 02:44:56,157
executive over in your company
like that's your enemy the other the

3097
02:44:56,240 --> 02:44:58,717
competitor on the outside is like
an abstraction like maybe they'll matter

3098
02:44:58,800 --> 02:45:02,877
someday whatever I got to beat that guy
inside my own company right um and so

3099
02:45:02,960 --> 02:45:06,717
the internal warfare is at least
as intense as the external warfare um and

3100
02:45:06,800 --> 02:45:09,837
so yeah so it's just I mean this is just
all the you know this iron law of all

3101
02:45:09,920 --> 02:45:13,357
these big big bureaucracies and how
they function so if if a bureaucracy ever

3102
02:45:13,440 --> 02:45:15,997
does anything productive I think It's
like a miracle. Like it's like a miracle

3103
02:45:16,080 --> 02:45:18,797
to the point where there
should be like a celebration.

3104
02:45:18,880 --> 02:45:21,277
There should be parties. There should
be like ticker tape parades for like big

3105
02:45:21,360 --> 02:45:24,637
large organizations that actually do
things like that. That's great because

3106
02:45:24,720 --> 02:45:28,877
it's like so it's so rare. It doesn't
happen very often. So anyway, so that's

3107
02:45:28,960 --> 02:45:32,157
the conventional explanation. Whereas
look, small companies, small teams, you

3108
02:45:32,240 --> 02:45:34,317
know, there's a lot that they can't
do because they can't you they're not

3109
02:45:34,400 --> 02:45:37,037
operating at scale and they don't have
global coverage and you know, all these

3110
02:45:37,120 --> 02:45:39,677
kind of, you know, they don't have
the resources and so forth. But at least

3111
02:45:39,760 --> 02:45:43,437
they can move quickly, right? Um they
can organize fast. they can have a, you

3112
02:45:43,520 --> 02:45:45,757
know, if there's an issue today, they
can have a meeting today. They can solve

3113
02:45:45,840 --> 02:45:48,797
the issue today, right? And everybody
they need to solve the issue is in the

3114
02:45:48,880 --> 02:45:52,317
room today, right? So, they can just
move a lot faster. Um, I think that's

3115
02:45:52,400 --> 02:45:55,197
part of it, but I think there's another
deeper thing underneath that that people

3116
02:45:55,280 --> 02:45:57,997
really don't like to talk about that
takes us back full circle to where we

3117
02:45:58,080 --> 02:46:01,037
started, which is just the sheer number
of people in the world who are capable

3118
02:46:01,120 --> 02:46:05,677
of doing new things is just a very small
set of people. Um, and so you're not

3119
02:46:05,760 --> 02:46:08,797
going to have a hundred of them in a
company or a thousand or 10,000. You're

3120
02:46:08,880 --> 02:46:13,437
going to have three,
[laughter] eight or 10 maybe.

3121
02:46:13,520 --> 02:46:15,437
>> And some of them are
flying too close to the sun.

3122
02:46:15,520 --> 02:46:18,957
>> Some of them are blowing themselves
up, right? Some of them are. So IBM, I

3123
02:46:19,040 --> 02:46:21,917
actually first learned this at so
my first actual job job was at IBM when it

3124
02:46:22,000 --> 02:46:25,117
was and when when IBM was still on top
of the world right before it caved in in

3125
02:46:25,200 --> 02:46:26,797
the early 90s and so when I was there it

3126
02:46:26,880 --> 02:46:32,317
was 440,000 employees which and again if
you inflation adjust like today for that

3127
02:46:32,400 --> 02:46:35,037
same size of business inflation adjusted,
market size adjusted it would

3128
02:46:35,120 --> 02:46:37,757
be it's equivalent today of like a two
or three million person organization. It

3129
02:46:37,840 --> 02:46:41,757
was like a It was a nation state.
Uh there were 6,000 people in my division,

3130
02:46:41,840 --> 02:46:44,237
you know, and we were next door
to another building that had another 6,000

3131
02:46:44,320 --> 02:46:47,197
people in another division. So, you just
you could work there for years and never

3132
02:46:47,280 --> 02:46:49,117
meet anybody who didn't work for IBM.

3133
02:46:49,200 --> 02:46:52,237
The first half of every meeting was just
IBM introducing themselves to each

3134
02:46:52,320 --> 02:46:54,397
other. Like it it was just mindboggling

3135
02:46:54,480 --> 02:46:56,397
in the level of of complexity. But they

3136
02:46:56,480 --> 02:47:01,437
were so powerful um that they had uh
at at four years before I got there in

3137
02:47:01,520 --> 02:47:04,557
1985, they were 80% of the market
capitalization of the entire tech

3138
02:47:04,640 --> 02:47:08,077
industry. Right? So, so they were at a
level of dominance that even, you know,

3139
02:47:08,160 --> 02:47:11,917
Google or Apple today is not even close
to right at the time. So, that's how

3140
02:47:12,000 --> 02:47:15,117
powerful they were. And so, they had
a system and it worked really well for

3141
02:47:15,200 --> 02:47:18,717
like 50 years. They had a system which
was most of the employees in the company

3142
02:47:18,800 --> 02:47:22,397
were expected to basically rig follow
rules. So, they dressed the same, they

3143
02:47:22,480 --> 02:47:24,717
acted the same, they did everything
out of the playbook, you know, they they

3144
02:47:24,800 --> 02:47:28,157
were trained very specifically. Um,
but they had this category of people they

3145
02:47:28,240 --> 02:47:32,077
called wild ducks. Um, and this was an
idea that the founder Thomas Watson come

3146
02:47:32,160 --> 02:47:36,557
up with, wild ducks. And the wild ducks
were they often had the formal title of

3147
02:47:36,640 --> 02:47:38,877
an IBM fellow and they were the people

3148
02:47:38,960 --> 02:47:41,677
who could make new things and there were

3149
02:47:41,760 --> 02:47:46,397
eight of them and they got to break
all the rules and they got to invent new

3150
02:47:46,480 --> 02:47:48,717
products. They got to go off and work
on something new. They didn't have to

3151
02:47:48,800 --> 02:47:52,877
report back. Um they got to pull people
off of other projects to work with them.

3152
02:47:52,960 --> 02:47:55,997
Um they got, you know, budget when they
needed it. They they reported directly

3153
02:47:56,080 --> 02:47:58,717
to the CEO. They got whatever they needed.
He supported them in doing it.

3154
02:47:58,800 --> 02:48:02,317
and they were glass breakers and you
know they showed the the one in Austin

3155
02:48:02,400 --> 02:48:05,117
at the time was this guy Andy Heler
and he would show up in you know jeans and

3156
02:48:05,200 --> 02:48:09,517
cowboy boots and you know amongst
an ocean of men in you know blue suits,

3157
02:48:09,600 --> 02:48:13,597
white shirts, red ties um and put his
cowboy boots up on the table [snorts]

3158
02:48:13,680 --> 02:48:16,477
and it was fine for Andy Holiday to do
that and it was not fine for you to do

3159
02:48:16,560 --> 02:48:20,317
that right and so they very specifically
identified we have an we have an we have

3160
02:48:20,400 --> 02:48:24,797
like a like almost like an aristocratic
class within our our company that gets

3161
02:48:24,880 --> 02:48:28,157
to play by different rules. Now
the expectation is they deliver right they

3162
02:48:28,240 --> 02:48:31,757
they their job is to invent the next
breakthrough product but we IBM

3163
02:48:31,840 --> 02:48:35,037
management know that the 6,000 person
division is not going to invent the next

3164
02:48:35,120 --> 02:48:38,237
product. we know it's gonna be a crazy
Andy Heler in his um in his cowboy

3165
02:48:38,320 --> 02:48:42,157
boots. And so I I was always like very
impressed like and again like ultimately

3166
02:48:42,240 --> 02:48:45,997
IBM had its issues but like that model
worked for 50 years right like worked

3167
02:48:46,080 --> 02:48:49,917
incredibly well and I I think that's
basically the model that works. Um and

3168
02:48:50,000 --> 02:48:53,437
so but it's a paradox right which
is like how do you have a large

3169
02:48:53,520 --> 02:48:57,357
bureaucratic regimented organization
whether it's academia or government or

3170
02:48:57,440 --> 02:49:00,637
business or anything that has all
these rule followers in it and all these

3171
02:49:00,720 --> 02:49:04,237
people who are jealous of their status
and don't want things to change but then

3172
02:49:04,320 --> 02:49:09,117
still have that spark of of of creativity.
I would say mostly it's

3173
02:49:09,200 --> 02:49:12,797
impossible [laughter] like mostly it
just doesn't happen. Those people get

3174
02:49:12,880 --> 02:49:15,917
driven out right and and in tech what
happens is those people get driven out

3175
02:49:16,000 --> 02:49:18,557
because we will fund them.
>> These are the people we fund. Right. I

3176
02:49:18,640 --> 02:49:22,637
was going to say I I gather that you are
in the business of finding and funding

3177
02:49:22,720 --> 02:49:24,397
the wild ducks. >> The wild ducks.
That's exactly right.

3178
02:49:24,480 --> 02:49:27,357
And and actually this is actually
to close the close the loop. This is

3179
02:49:27,440 --> 02:49:30,077
actually I think the simplest
explanation for why IBM ultimately caved

3180
02:49:30,160 --> 02:49:34,237
in and then HP sort of in the 80s also
c you know these IBM and HP kind of were

3181
02:49:34,320 --> 02:49:37,677
monol they were these incredible
monolithic incredible companies for 40

3182
02:49:37,760 --> 02:49:41,277
or 50 years and then they kind of both
caved in in the 80s and 90s and and I

3183
02:49:41,360 --> 02:49:44,237
actually think it was the emergence of
venture capital. It was the emergence of

3184
02:49:44,320 --> 02:49:47,997
a parallel funding system where the wild
ducks or in HP's case their their

3185
02:49:48,080 --> 02:49:50,397
superstar technical people could
actually leave and start their own

3186
02:49:50,480 --> 02:49:53,517
companies. And again, it goes back
to the university discussion we're having

3187
02:49:53,600 --> 02:49:56,397
is like this is what doesn't
exist at the university level.

3188
02:49:56,480 --> 02:49:58,557
>> This certainly does not
exist at the government level.

3189
02:49:58,640 --> 02:50:02,157
>> And until recently in media, it didn't
exist until there's this thing that we

3190
02:50:02,240 --> 02:50:04,957
call podcast. >> Exactly.
Right. Exactly. Right.

3191
02:50:05,040 --> 02:50:08,717
>> Which clearly have picked up some um
some momentum. And I I would hope that

3192
02:50:08,800 --> 02:50:13,037
these other wild duck models
will um will uh move quickly.

3193
02:50:13,120 --> 02:50:14,237
>> Yeah. But the one
thing you know, right,

3194
02:50:14,320 --> 02:50:16,477
and you know this, like the one thing
you know is the people on the other side

3195
02:50:16,560 --> 02:50:20,397
are going to be mad as hell. >> Yeah.
They're going to Well, I think um

3196
02:50:20,480 --> 02:50:24,877
they're past denial. Um
the counterarguments continue. Um the name

3197
02:50:24,960 --> 02:50:25,837
calling is prolific.

3198
02:50:25,920 --> 02:50:28,157
>> Name calling is fully underway. Yeah.

3199
02:50:28,240 --> 02:50:32,077
>> Yes. Well, Mark, we've covered a lot of

3200
02:50:32,160 --> 02:50:35,517
topics, but as with every time I talk to

3201
02:50:35,600 --> 02:50:38,637
you, I learn oh so very much. So, I'm so

3202
02:50:38,720 --> 02:50:42,557
grateful for you taking the time out of
your schedule to talk about all of these

3203
02:50:42,640 --> 02:50:46,637
topics in depth with us. You know,
I'd be remiss if I didn't say that it is

3204
02:50:46,720 --> 02:50:49,037
clear to me now that you are hyper

3205
02:50:49,120 --> 02:50:52,157
realistic about the landscape,

3206
02:50:52,240 --> 02:50:56,237
>> uh, but you are also intensely
optimistic about the existence of wild

3207
02:50:56,320 --> 02:50:58,797
ducks. >> Yes. and those
around them that support

3208
02:50:58,880 --> 02:51:01,837
them and that are necessary for the
implementation of their ideas at some

3209
02:51:01,920 --> 02:51:05,277
point >> and that also
you have um a real rebel

3210
02:51:05,360 --> 02:51:08,477
inside you. So that is oh so welcome on

3211
02:51:08,560 --> 02:51:11,597
this podcast and it's um oh so needed in

3212
02:51:11,680 --> 02:51:16,477
uh these times and every time. So on
behalf of myself and the rest of us here

3213
02:51:16,560 --> 02:51:19,677
at the podcast and especially
the listeners, thank you so much.

3214
02:51:19,760 --> 02:51:22,477
>> Thanks for having me.
>> Thank you for joining me for today's

3215
02:51:22,560 --> 02:51:26,397
discussion with Mark Andrees. If
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3216
02:51:26,480 --> 02:51:30,397
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02:51:30,480 --> 02:51:34,477
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