1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,757 Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on this side of it. Thank you for 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:05,037 having us here at Tesla Giga. 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,877 Um it is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives. I mean, you 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,717 are doing, I think, more to build the future than literally anybody alive 5 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,437 right now. >> I'm doing a lot of building in general. 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,797 I'm >> You're doing a lot of building. 7 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:19,837 >> builder, I suppose. I just like building things. 8 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:23,957 >> You are, but you're building I mean, >> You know, run around building things all 9 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,037 day long. >> You run around building a lot of things. 10 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,757 You pioneered electric vehicles, you revolutionized space travel, you've got 11 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:32,717 a cutting-edge AI model now, humanoid 12 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:37,237 robots. Can we start this conversation by you putting all of this together? 13 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,437 Tell me what the world's going to be like in, let's say, 10 years if you succeed. 14 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,357 >> 10 years, so we're talking 2036. 15 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,437 >> Yep. Hopefully, we'll both be around. 16 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:47,877 >> Hopefully, yes. >> can we can we 17 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:51,117 >> Uh probably. Most likely, we will be. 18 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:55,277 Um it it's hard to imagine a future that where there's not 19 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:59,077 an overall overwhelming amount of artificial intelligence. 20 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:03,477 Meaning, I can 10 years, I would expect artificial intelligence to be 21 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,277 far greater than the sum of human intelligence. 22 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:10,437 Like far greater. Um in fact, I think 23 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:16,317 AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about in around 5 years. 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,477 >> In 5 years? >> Roughly 5 years is my guess. 25 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,117 Um so 26 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:28,357 there really won't be anything that AI can't do better than humans apart from 27 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:34,760 being human, perhaps. >> At a more prosaic level, what will life be like? 28 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,477 >> The most likely outcome 29 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:43,397 is an age of amazing abundance uh where 30 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,637 anyone can have anything they can think of. 31 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,997 This is this is uh this may sound preposterous, but 32 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:54,597 well, here we are in 2026. Let's see where we stand in 2036. Now, 33 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,877 of course, there are things that could uh derail this, like a a massive global 34 00:01:59,960 --> 00:02:01,997 thermonuclear war or something like that. 35 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:06,077 Um but assuming that there's not World War III, 36 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,037 uh I think I think we're headed for an age of 37 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,917 amazing abundance. So, this is, I guess, a message of 38 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,917 of optimism and uh excitement about the future. 39 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,917 >> So, we'll talk about the abundance in a second, but just on a very prosaic 40 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,277 matter, how are your companies going to be making money? Because when you In the 41 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:29,357 In the SpaceX IPO prospectus, it it looked as though the overwhelming amount 42 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,397 of the revenue would be coming from AI, from Grok, really. It won't be 43 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,277 transporting things to space as SpaceX 44 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,197 is now doing. What is What will your 45 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,197 companies be doing in 10 years? 46 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,160 And how will they make money? 47 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,757 >> Well, you can really think of the economy as 48 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,717 uh digital and physical intelligence. 49 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:55,277 Um so, what we have right now advancing very 50 00:02:55,360 --> 00:03:00,637 rapidly is digital intelligence, obviously, with with AI that is 51 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:05,477 uh it seems that well, almost with every passing week, uh there are are more AI 52 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,917 breakthroughs. It It can do something amazing that it couldn't do before. 53 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,517 Uh but it's still somewhat confined to the digital realm. 54 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,517 It doesn't have end effectors. 55 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:18,637 You need the end effectors in the form of 56 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,277 humanoid robotics, um human In you need 57 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:25,837 you need it basically a lots of bots in a nutshell. You need lots of bots. 58 00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:29,637 Um and then you can go from um 59 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,477 intelligence manifesting itself only 60 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:37,917 digitally to shaping atoms. Um 61 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:42,277 and you say, "What What What is an economy?" An economy is um 62 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,877 the production of goods and provision of 63 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:49,637 services. And if you have vast numbers of 64 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:54,597 robots uh with uh vast amounts of digital intelligence, 65 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,197 you have a sort of 66 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,997 a quasi quasi-infinite economy. 67 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:06,797 So so this is this is really the the the future is going to be very 68 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,757 very different from the past. There's there's no um 69 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,917 there's no analogy or metaphor that I think 70 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,557 illustrates the magnitude of change that we're going to experience here. 71 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,757 >> I I I understand that and I'm I'm also trying to kind of figure out what that 72 00:04:22,840 --> 00:04:25,637 world would look like but but in some way you have 73 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,917 >> It's going to be a pretty incredible >> Yeah, well we'll also do there were some 74 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:34,317 risks too. We'll come to those. We'll come to those but just on on on how then 75 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,197 you make money cuz in the end people are buying your shares cuz cuz they expect 76 00:04:37,280 --> 00:04:39,677 you to make money. >> I'll I'll I'll make another prediction. 77 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:44,077 Money won't matter in 2036. >> You're watching my interview with Elon 78 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:48,357 Musk. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The 79 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,717 Economist by clicking the link above. 80 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,557 Now, back to the interview. >> [laughter] >> I'm not sure that the people who bought 81 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,517 your shares think that money won't matter in 2036. 82 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,357 >> what do you want money for? 83 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:03,837 Are you what you want money for? Goods and services. 84 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,357 >> Yeah. >> Right? You want money for obviously food, housing, transport, 85 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,717 entertainment. Um 86 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,877 well, if that is so abundant 87 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:18,597 that uh there's more that the robots and AI are providing 88 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:23,397 more goods and services than you than any human could possibly consume, 89 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,677 what do you need money for in that case? 90 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:27,757 >> But you're you're creating these robots. 91 00:05:27,840 --> 00:05:29,837 Are you then selling >> then you'll need money, sure. 92 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,757 >> Are you are you selling these robots? 93 00:05:31,840 --> 00:05:36,157 Are you selling human humanoid robots or are you producing goods and services 94 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,200 with the humanoid robots that you control? 95 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,117 I give you the leave I struck so >> I think I think I think I would probably 96 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:48,717 be And would be an exercise in vanity to for me to think that I would be 97 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:52,637 controlling a super genius AI that is vastly smarter 98 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,437 than me. I think what we can and should try to do 99 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,237 is to make sure that the AI 100 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,037 has good values, that it cares about 101 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:07,517 humanity, and that uh it wants wants us to be happy and 102 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,237 prosper. Um 103 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,757 I think it probably will be. Um My 104 00:06:14,840 --> 00:06:18,597 what my biological neural net tells me is that the most important thing for the 105 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,397 for AI safety is to be maximally truth 106 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,837 seeking and curious. 107 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,797 Uh if that's the case, uh I think it 108 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:30,357 will foster humanity. >> So, let's unpack that. You're sure that 109 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,957 humans will no longer be in control in 10 years' time. 110 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,677 >> I think it is unlikely. Um in the same 111 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:42,317 way that if the difference in intelligence between AI and humans is 112 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:46,757 vastly greater than the difference in intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, 113 00:06:46,840 --> 00:06:48,477 it's hard to imagine 114 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,237 that the chimpanzees would be in charge. 115 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,797 >> I'm really struck by what you're saying. 116 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,957 >> um an evolved form of chimpanzee. So, it 117 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,077 wasn't that long ago that we were swinging through the trees, eating 118 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,037 bananas, um in the jungle. And we still eat 119 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,557 bananas, by the way. We do. And we still, you know, bananas 120 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:10,197 >> sometimes swing through trees as well. 121 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:11,477 >> Yeah, sometimes swing through trees. 122 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:15,797 It's kind of fun. It's sort of um reminiscent of the past. Um for for old 123 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,637 time's sake, swing through the trees once in a while. Probably, you know, 124 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,397 there should be more swinging through trees. I bet it's way more fun than 125 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:22,707 people think. >> I'm with you on that. 126 00:07:22,790 --> 00:07:24,037 >> [laughter] >> I'm definitely with you on swinging 127 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,757 through trees. I love swinging through trees. But But But I'm really struck 128 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,197 listening to you say this now, cuz I've been listening to a bunch of things that 129 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,757 you've said over the years. And And 10 years ago, you were on a podcast, I 130 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,677 think it was with Neil deGrasse Tyson, and you said that the thing that 131 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:41,637 terrified you most was rapid recursive of in AIs. 132 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,877 >> Yes. that you said And it really stuck with me. You said that we will just be 133 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,037 the pet Labradors at the best. 134 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,917 >> Well, >> Now you see >> Labradors are pretty happy creatures. 135 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,477 That's my experience. >> in 2023 you you called you asked for a 136 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,517 slow down in AI cuz you were worried about it. 137 00:07:55,600 --> 00:08:00,037 >> Well, I signed on to, you know, on as one of many like 500 people. I I I was 138 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,637 just, you know, one of many signa- signatories on that thing. 139 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,557 >> But but I think even last year you said, 140 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,677 I don't know where was it, Ted Cruz's podcast, you said there was a 10 to 20% 141 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,397 chance of killer robots wiping out humanity. 142 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,197 >> Yes. >> So you sounded worried then. Now you 143 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:19,477 seem very relaxed about it. Have you changed your view? 144 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,117 >> I still think there's I still think there's a risk 145 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:24,797 associated with AI and robots. It's not 146 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:26,117 zero. 147 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:30,317 Um I I guess I've come to 148 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:35,597 my my I sort of philosophical conclusion is to look on the bright side. 149 00:08:35,680 --> 00:08:39,117 Um I like I I can't see any way to really 150 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:44,197 stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots. 151 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:47,437 Um and and at times I sort of think, well, 152 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:51,437 perhaps, you know, we're even if there was a stop button, we probably shouldn't 153 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,477 press it uh because 154 00:08:55,560 --> 00:09:00,597 I cuz the most likely outcome is incredible 155 00:09:00,680 --> 00:09:04,357 abundance for for all. >> That's what I thought actually. It 156 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,797 struck me that now you seem to have decided it's inevitable. 157 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,437 Let's hope for the best and go for the ride. 158 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,957 >> Yeah. I mean, yes, pretty much. 159 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:21,037 Let's uh let's enjoy the ride as as I think my philosophy at this point cuz 160 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:26,237 I mean, honestly, this this it's it's there seems to be just inexorable 161 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:31,317 uh progress here in in AI and and in robots 162 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:35,917 that um >> But you >> You know, even if I wanted to stop it 163 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,477 and I I couldn't. Um >> Do you think there's still a 10 to 20% 164 00:09:39,560 --> 00:09:42,237 chance that killer robots mean the end 165 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,837 of humanity? 166 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,717 That's a high P doom, as they say. 167 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:51,557 >> Well, in long run we're all dead, of course. 168 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:56,517 Uh you know, um So I mean I I so the it let let's 169 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:01,837 according to the standard model of physics, the end of the universe is 170 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,837 um a long, boring 171 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,637 sort of thin, gray soup of 172 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:13,197 uh gradual cooling. Um I mean it's sort of 173 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,997 the heat death of the universe it's called. So now if if the heat death of 174 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:21,717 the universe is in fact the outcome for our reality, then it really is all about 175 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,677 the journey. Because the destination is terrible. 176 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,477 >> 10 years is not very [laughter] Yeah, I get that, but that could be a 177 00:10:27,560 --> 00:10:31,917 long way ahead. And and no basis very very long way. If it's 10 to 20% in 10 178 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,677 years, you know, would you go into one of your rockets if you thought there was 179 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,557 a 10 to 20% chance of it blowing up and killing you? 180 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:44,517 >> Yes, but but let's say there's you can't do anything about it. 181 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,037 >> Okay. >> The I guess the only thing we can try to 182 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:50,997 do is minimize the probability of the bad outcome. 183 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,397 Um but trying to stop the intelligence in 184 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,237 robots 185 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,517 um 186 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,997 I mean for the longest time I 187 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,917 declined to participate in AI or was you know 188 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,757 you know, created OpenAI as a 189 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:13,277 essentially counterweight to to Google cuz at the time they were um had more or 190 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:18,677 less a monopoly on AI. Um and then Anthropic spun out of uh 191 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,757 OpenAI. And and if anything, it seems like what 192 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,477 my actions have really accelerated AI. You know, I wasn't 193 00:11:26,560 --> 00:11:31,197 really aiming to accelerate AI, but in creating OpenAI and then having 194 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,597 Anthropic spun out of that and now currently Anthropic's leader in AI. 195 00:11:35,680 --> 00:11:38,837 Um I mean these 196 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,037 these actions have actually resulted in 197 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,117 knock-on effects that accelerated AI 198 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:47,717 which wasn't really my intention. 199 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,077 So it just seems like 200 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:55,837 all roads lead to acceleration of AI. 201 00:11:55,920 --> 00:12:01,197 So then I'm like, "Okay. Well, you can just sort of be sad about it or 202 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,757 join the club, I suppose." >> Well, you've certainly joined the club. 203 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,677 >> Yeah. >> I mean you've you've definitely joined the club, but 204 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:07,797 >> You can't beat them, join them, you know? 205 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,877 >> Well, you've you've you've clearly done that and very successfully, but what 206 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,477 about trying to minimize the risks? And 207 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:17,477 you know, a number of the other leaders 208 00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:20,517 of of model makers have been pushing for 209 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:24,517 different ways to try and minimize the risks. Um you know, just last week Demis 210 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:29,717 Hassabis came out with a proposal for a private public regulator. 211 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:31,877 Um >> Yeah. >> you you said it was a good starting 212 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,677 point for discussions, I think. Do you think you guys should be working more 213 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:39,637 actively to get something in place to control the 214 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,717 risks or do you think that's impossible, too? 215 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,757 >> My recommendation to Demis, cuz we I talked to him for 216 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:49,277 a few hours before he published his his piece, was that um 217 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,157 the most immediate thing that we could do is to have the leading AI companies 218 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,957 um at least just meet uh or have a some sort of call 219 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:02,397 once every few weeks um and just 220 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,357 uh discuss 221 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,597 se- any safety and security issues 222 00:13:07,680 --> 00:13:11,637 that and and and that before a breakthrough uh sort of a a new 223 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,517 frontier model is released, something that sort of 224 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:18,517 is is far more intelligent than anything that already exists, that there's an 225 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,157 opportunity for the 226 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,997 various competing uh AI companies to 227 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,477 uh test test that model for 228 00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:30,197 any harmful effects. 229 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,517 And to be able to recommend pausing to 230 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,717 address some of these security issues. 231 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,677 I think I think that's that's the that's sort of the the easy quick thing that we 232 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:45,077 can do. And it can it can evolve to more than that over time. Um but that's um 233 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:46,517 that I think would be a smart move. 234 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,597 >> But why why haven't you done that yet? I mean there's like five of you, right? I 235 00:13:49,680 --> 00:13:50,997 mean everyone knows the first name. 236 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,837 Dario, Demis, Sam. I mean you don't all like each other very much. Yeah, but you 237 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,797 know you're not all I mean you're also all competing, right? You all want to be 238 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:02,877 first. >> but that's that's where I think um the 239 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,877 the competitors can keep keep each other honest. So I mean 240 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:10,877 meaning like if um like I think it's quite difficult for someone in the 241 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,837 government who doesn't have a deep technical understanding and isn't 242 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:18,717 driving the frontier of of AI to know whether something should be released or 243 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:19,797 not. 244 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:23,797 Um however, the competitors I think what 245 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,157 can you know if given sort of a week or 246 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:31,597 two to review a new model um can highlight issues and uh and have an 247 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,197 incentive to keep all all the competitors have an 248 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:35,597 incentive to keep the others honest. 249 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,437 >> Do you have enough trust between you to do that? I mean you don't much like each 250 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,597 other. Wouldn't wouldn't Sam Altman just think you're going to nick all his ideas 251 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:46,437 if you did that? >> Well, we're just talking about a Honestly, I I 252 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,397 I think as little as a week is all that would be needed uh 253 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,157 for private testing. It's it's not to it's not to hand over the AI. It's just 254 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,117 to test it. >> Have you proposed this? 255 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,637 >> Yeah, just to test it via an API or something. 256 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,237 Um I think that would probably be a a good thing to do. Um 257 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,757 >> But have you have you proposed it? I mean you could presumably organize that. 258 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,317 >> to Demis. And I guess uh 259 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,077 I'll I'll talk to Dario about it, too. 260 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,357 Um 261 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,997 There's also, of course, um some very 262 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:22,757 competent uh Chinese AI companies um 263 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,477 that uh there's several of them several of that are that are very good. 264 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,637 Um the new Kimmy model >> Kimmy K3, yeah, the one that came out 265 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:34,197 last week is I mean it's almost as good as Fable, right? So, it's >> Well, 266 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,517 um I I think realistically Fable is is 267 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,477 still uh clearly the smartest model. Um 268 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,157 I mean anyone realistically would say that that's still the case. But, 269 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:49,637 the Kimmy model is getting quite close to Fable. 270 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:55,037 Um Now, Anthropic had uh Mythos from which Fable is 271 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:59,957 derived. I think they had that ready in February. 272 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,917 So, they've got they've got for it what they 273 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:08,437 call I don't know what they're called, but Mythos 2 or or Fable 6 or something 274 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,997 something much better than what they had in February. They are almost certainly 275 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,717 have and we're not almost certainly, they certainly have right now. So, 276 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,997 I and I think they could they they could release it at any time. 277 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,957 >> Just before we get on to to releasing, how do you think about the Chinese 278 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:27,917 models and the geopolitics of it? Are you worried about the Chinese catching 279 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,517 up and getting ahead? >> Given that the Chinese 280 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,277 AI companies are um 281 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,837 are doing as well as they are with 282 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:41,957 a relatively small amount of compute, uh it seems though as that if they had a 283 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:46,637 lot of compute, um there's a good chance that they would be 284 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:53,560 the leaders. And at some point, they probably will have a lot of compute. 285 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,600 >> So, they will ergo they will be the leaders. 286 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:03,157 >> There's a good chance that they are the leaders at some point. Um 287 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,397 You can think of like the the constraints on AI are 288 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,637 essentially electricity and 289 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,437 AI chips. 290 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,597 Um and then for physical AI, the robots. 291 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,637 Uh China's also got some very good robot companies. In fact, they have 292 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,597 these like robot sporting events. I don't know if you've seen some of them. 293 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:26,317 >> Yes, I have. I saw them the last time I was in Beijing. I saw the the robots. 294 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,357 >> Well, and then they have this sort of like a like a boxing match or a fighting 295 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,677 match with um the robots, which is quite entertaining. 296 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,157 And I saw I saw some video of robot that got its head knocked off, kept fighting 297 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:37,997 even with its head knocked off. 298 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:42,157 Uh, it looked pretty funny, but um I mean in fact, I think the the robot battles 299 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,797 are going to be quite entertaining to watch. 300 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,757 Um >> But but just to be 301 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:48,637 >> so China's China's very strong on 302 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:53,397 robots, very strong on digital AI, and 303 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,917 and if you look at electricity production, you could say like AI is a 304 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,637 function of whatever what what whatever the limiting factor is. If it's chips or 305 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,717 electricity, China has far more electricity than the United States. In 306 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,997 fact, China has more electricity than the United States, 307 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,837 Europe, and India combined already. 308 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,157 Um and is heading to 309 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:18,717 And my guess is China gets to four times the electricity production of the US, 310 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,597 which is roughly proportionate to the population. 311 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,637 >> What should the US government do about this? I mean, if you you presumably it 312 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,237 is a little alarming if you have an authoritarian regime far ahead in the 313 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:33,037 most powerful technology. And clearly what what the US government's been 314 00:18:33,120 --> 00:18:34,917 trying to do is with the export controls 315 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,757 and so forth, keep China back. Do you 316 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:42,557 think they should ban the use of K3 Kimmy K3, for example? 317 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,717 >> Well, the US government can't they they can 318 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:50,797 they can pass some law that prevents US companies from using um 319 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,397 Chinese models, but they can't stop the rest of the world from from using them. 320 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,837 Um So, it's it's not like the the US government has authority over 321 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,357 China or the rest of the world. Um >> Do you think they should stop US 322 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,317 companies from using them? There's talk of that right now, right? 323 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,957 >> I don't think that that helps. 324 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:13,557 Um it that won't stop China from being the leader in AI. The 325 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,517 the really it's for for digital intelligence 326 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:21,797 it comes down to uh how much AI compute do you have? It 327 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,437 Well, how many chips chips do you have and how much power do 328 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,997 you have? How much electricity do you have? 329 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,397 Um so 330 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,037 the constraint right now I think is 331 00:19:33,120 --> 00:19:36,317 actually slightly more on 332 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,157 power and cooling than it is on AI chips because um 333 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:44,717 the the power demands of the AI chips are very very high. Um we'll talk about 334 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:49,357 water demands but the really the water usage of of AI is negligible or almost 335 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,637 nothing. Um but the electric the electrical demand is very high. 336 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,677 >> That's why you're thinking of orbital data centers presumably. That's 337 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,277 >> Yes, the constraint for any AI chips 338 00:20:00,360 --> 00:20:05,237 not being turned on in China is electricity and like power and cooling 339 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,477 and the electrical equipment and everything. 340 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:12,997 Um the rate at which AI chips are being made exceeds the rate at which new 341 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,557 electricity is coming online. >> In China. Okay. 342 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,397 >> Um out outside of China. >> Outside China, I see. Yeah. 343 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,837 >> Um and since China 344 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:25,757 you know the the US has banned the export of the latest AI chips to China 345 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,557 um China is is somewhat chip starved. So so 346 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,357 >> are becoming much more efficient at using the chips that they have and that 347 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,957 that one of the striking things of Kimik 3, right, is how efficiently they 348 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,957 >> And and and China is also um 349 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:44,157 I I think closer than most people realize to 350 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:48,357 solving uh the lithography problem 351 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,677 which would enable them to make uh AI 352 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,917 chips at at very large volumes. 353 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,837 So so I think this 354 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:02,877 you know, this isn't evolving into just a China conversation but um 355 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,637 but but the so the current current constraint is is electricity outside of 356 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,477 China. In China, the constraint is chips. 357 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,597 Uh once the once we address the 358 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,997 the power constraint with um AI data centers in space, 359 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,277 uh then the constraint will once again 360 00:21:19,360 --> 00:21:24,277 be chips outside of China. >> That suggests to me that you need China 361 00:21:24,360 --> 00:21:27,797 and the US if you're going to have some overall safety constraints that they 362 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:32,517 will need to work together. If you are going to try and I mean you suggested 363 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,557 you know, the five >> Well, I think it should include Uh 364 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,077 probably it should include um 365 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:43,837 the Chinese companies that are doing frontier uh AI models, too. 366 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,197 >> And do you think the governments need to be involved? 367 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:50,237 >> My recommendation would be that if 368 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:54,477 if some of the leading companies in AI in AI say that 369 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:58,797 this a new model is very dangerous, 370 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,157 then they should inform the government and and and and well if a new model is 371 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,957 very dangerous and that the company 372 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,637 producing that model is not taking steps to address the danger, 373 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:14,117 then then they should alert the government to take action um 374 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,437 to limit the uh 375 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,317 release of that model. Uh and that could be action by the 376 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,437 Chinese government or action by the US government. Um it's it's really it's 377 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,557 really just the US government and the Chinese government that that have the 378 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:29,997 power to take action here. 379 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,437 >> But the I guess people would be worried 380 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:38,237 about relying on a group of model builders to decide whether to do this. I 381 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,357 mean if you look at what the US government has done with with Mythos, 382 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,357 they stepped in because they were worried about the cybersecurity 383 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:50,277 risks and they stepped in using you know, threat of export controls to you know, 384 00:22:50,360 --> 00:22:53,837 prevent the widespread release of this model. I find it hard to see how 385 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:59,597 governments will not want to keep that power that they ultimately decide 386 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:00,597 whether or not it gets released. 387 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,717 >> I think they should keep they should have that power, but it it wasn't as 388 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,757 though someone in the government figured 389 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,397 out that Methos uh 390 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:13,237 was had had some scary cybersecurity 391 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:14,957 uh 392 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,397 risks. It it was Amazon. 393 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:22,237 Um Amazon highlighted this and Amazon called the White House. 394 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,917 >> So, you'd have a system where the model makers would check each other's work. If 395 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,277 there was something that worried them, you'd tell the government. The 396 00:23:28,360 --> 00:23:31,037 government would then think, "Okay." 397 00:23:31,120 --> 00:23:35,357 >> and that company was not doing anything to address that risk, then that would be 398 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:39,917 the the moment for government to step in and take action, which is literally what 399 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,477 just what occurred with Methos. 400 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,360 >> have to happen? 401 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,717 >> I think it'd be good to do that. 402 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,157 I think immediately, really. Yeah. 403 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,957 >> Yeah, that's what people keep telling me. We we have to get this some kind of 404 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,557 system in the next 6 months because of the pace at which the models are 405 00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:00,917 improving. >> Yeah, 6 months is a long time. 406 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:05,157 Um >> So, you think shorter than that? 407 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,477 >> Well, I I mean, there's there's so many AI 408 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,597 breakthrough announcements, sometimes multiple per day. 409 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,197 I mean, how many were there last week? 410 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,837 >> A lot. >> I lost track, you know. 411 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,957 >> Yeah, a lot. >> Um 412 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,597 >> So, so you you basically, you know, whether it's Demis' proposal or others, 413 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,517 you need to get together and get this set up kind of now, it sounds like 414 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:27,877 you're telling me. 415 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,797 >> Yeah. I I I would recommend that we at 416 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:35,397 least have some sort of informal um weekly or bi-weekly 417 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:40,117 um call and that there's that that 418 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:41,797 um there's maybe 419 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,357 a week or 2 weeks of of early access by 420 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,757 competitors. Um and this is why I think the incentives work is because if if, 421 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,117 you know, competing companies I think are likely to 422 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,997 understand if something is a security risk and they're they're not going to be 423 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:01,117 shy about highlighting that that their their competitors' models should be 424 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,117 delayed in release. >> Is that >> That that's the I think the structure 425 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,877 does work quite well there. And And if the if And if 426 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,837 this is sort of how it works with the Motion Picture Association, you know, 427 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,917 the it's it's an industry group that uh 428 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,317 decides how how movies should be rated. You know, 429 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,717 whe- whether it's appropriate for all for young children or or not. Um 430 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,437 and that's uh that seems to have worked quite well. 431 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,277 So, um And And And And then you really just ask 432 00:25:30,360 --> 00:25:33,757 have ask the government to intervene if if some if a company's doing something 433 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:38,317 very dangerous and refuses to take action to reduce the danger. 434 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,037 >> Do you think this is a This is a tricky one, but 435 00:25:42,120 --> 00:25:45,237 you guys don't much like each other and you don't much trust each other. You're 436 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,517 insulting each other on on social media constantly. So, do you Do you think you 437 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,077 can do that with people that you dislike that that where there seems to be such 438 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,157 kind of personal vitriol between some of these leaders? 439 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,557 >> Um Yes, well, I'm not I'm not a fan of Sam 440 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,637 Altman because um >> You're watching my interview with Elon 441 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,957 Musk. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The 442 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,237 Economist by clicking the link above. 443 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,397 Now, back to the interview. >> If you started a nonprofit that was 444 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:21,557 meant to be an open-source AI company and um 445 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,437 you know, owned by the world uh and it somehow got turned into 446 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:29,517 an $800 billion for-profit company with closed source, I think you'd be 447 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,597 like, "Well, wait a second. That's uh the exact opposite of what I donated the 448 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,917 money for." That That's my issue. I think it's a legitimate one. 449 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,997 Um And then Dario, I think, also is not a 450 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:45,677 fan of Sam Altman because he felt Uh in fact, the reason the Anthropic team left 451 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,517 OpenAI is because they they didn't trust Sam Altman. 452 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,917 Otherwise, Anthropic wouldn't exist. They would still be at Open AI. 453 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:57,037 Um I I think Dario is very principled 454 00:26:57,120 --> 00:26:59,677 person. He cares about things a lot. 455 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,677 He cares about the future of of the world and I I think everyone I've met at 456 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,877 Anthropic so far has been I mean like no one set off my evil 457 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:12,637 detector. You know, they always seem seem like they're well-intentioned. Um 458 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,117 and the road to hell is I think mostly paved 459 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,117 with bad intentions. There are a few 460 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,117 well-intentioned paving stones in there. 461 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,757 So we we don't want to be complacent. Um but 462 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,437 at the end of the day if we have to talk, we'll talk. I mean 463 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,717 set aside our personal differences for the good of the world at the end of the day. 464 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,517 >> Well, that's that's a very good thing for the rest of us to hear. 465 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,717 >> Yeah. Um >> Can I Can we turn to one other risk that 466 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,597 people worry about? Particularly I think ordinary Americans where you know, AI 467 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,677 has become incredibly unpopular. 75% of people are worried about it. And I think 468 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,397 they worry about their jobs. 469 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,597 And if you look at Dario has said 470 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,517 famously what? 50% of entry-level jobs 471 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,757 entry-level white-collar jobs will be gone within a few years. You're building 472 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,557 humanoid robots. >> Yes, he he also said like I mean Dario 473 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,197 did dig his own grave here regarding Methuselahs because he said, 474 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:09,197 you know, Methuselahs is like super scary, terrifying and also by the way, 475 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,457 we're going to release it. And then he's like, what what do you mean? 476 00:28:12,540 --> 00:28:14,917 >> [laughter] >> You know, so I think he 477 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:20,077 Um I think probably in the future will choose his words uh differently. Um 478 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,157 >> But what's your sense >> if you if you make if you terrify 479 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,157 everyone and then say, "Oh, we're releasing this terrifying thing." 480 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,957 People will obviously be alarmed about that. You know, you've literally told 481 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,477 them to be scared and then you release the scary thing and so they will be 482 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:36,277 scared. That is natural. >> So I I certainly don't want you to alarm 483 00:28:36,360 --> 00:28:38,237 people, but I do think there is a really 484 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,637 important debate about how quickly and 485 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:46,317 to what degree AI is displace people from jobs. Because it is as you say, if 486 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,317 within 10 years, it's more it's there's more intelligent artificial intelligence 487 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,477 than any human intelligence. >> Yes. 488 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:56,197 >> And if you are, and I think you're ahead of everyone this in this country on 489 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,437 powering humanoid robots, that's that's also going to be >> Yeah. 490 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,117 >> kind of factory work. So, do you Are you part Do 491 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,077 you Are you closer to Dario, let's say, 492 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:10,480 in your sense of the pace at which jobs are going to be displaced? 493 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,757 >> I I do think it's going to be a bumpy road. Um 494 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,717 because AI will be able to do any job 495 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,557 better than any person can do that job. 496 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:29,077 Um and that will be true very quickly of 497 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,517 jobs that um are digital or really anything that 498 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,957 involves a person at a computer or on a 499 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,117 phone. AI could do all of that um will 500 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:42,237 be will be able to do all of that very soon. 501 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,877 I mean, for 502 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,677 software engineering, we already have 503 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,957 a situation where AI is better than 504 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,757 at least 90% of humans um at writing software. 505 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:59,237 Or 90% of professional software engineers at writing software. 506 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:04,037 And I mean, it really is getting to the point where it'll be better than 99% 507 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,877 and then it'll get to the point where there's just no way to compete. It'll 508 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,397 It'll get to what I call Stockfish level. 509 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:14,757 So, Stockfish. So, Stockfish is the chess program 510 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:20,077 that um Stockfish is so good at chess that you 511 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,877 know, it will 512 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,237 easily beat Magnus Carlsen or anyone uh at chess 513 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,797 um on a even running on a small computer. I suspect that 514 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,157 you could probably run Stockfish on your phone 515 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,477 and beat Magnus Carlsen. That's how good it is at chess. 516 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,917 And that's how good AI will be at writing software. 517 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:46,877 >> And beyond software? Beyond >> And that applies to everything. 518 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:48,717 >> Everything >> Everything, everything. 519 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:54,317 >> Everything, but what about you for for physical jobs, for assembly jobs? You 520 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:58,277 will also need the capability in humanoid robots, which so far isn't 521 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,957 there yet, is it? >> Right, so 522 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,797 that's why I said digital AI and then physically manifested AI in the form of 523 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,797 robots, where the robot is is more or less an end effector 524 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,077 would have some amount of local intelligence, but be [clears throat] 525 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,077 managed by a large AI model. 526 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:19,720 Um and uh 527 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:25,037 I And I've said many times I think work is going to be optional. 528 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:26,077 So 529 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,077 I didn't mean Let me So so I think maybe 530 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,557 maybe a good a good uh 531 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,077 comparison would be um gardening. 532 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,317 Like you don't have to garden. You know, you don't like 533 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,197 you don't have to grow vegetables for in your in your garden. You can go to the 534 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:47,357 store and there are going to be pristine vegetables, or you can grow vegetables 535 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,997 in your garden and they will actually be uh 536 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,557 less perfect. Your tomato is not going to be as plump and 537 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:59,077 juicy as the ones at the store. They they have They'll you know, look a little 538 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,837 artisanal. Um But you know, if you if you go to a 539 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,717 friend's house and they they make dinner 540 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:09,917 at and it's it's with vegetables from their garden, it's it's a nice touch. 541 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,317 So that's what So that's what work is going to be like. 542 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,397 >> AI. I get that. I mean, in that world I would be hopeless cuz I can't garden to 543 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,837 save my life, but I get the idea. People still like playing chess with each other 544 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,437 even though every computer is better. 545 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,917 But let's just let's just think about the politics of this. 546 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,397 >> Yeah. >> Because it sounds to you you're 547 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,957 describing a world where within 10 years pretty much every job can be done better 548 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,917 by an intelligence. And >> Yes. 549 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,197 >> you're seeing huge returns to this intelligence to people like you. You're 550 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,317 the wealthiest man in the world. 551 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,477 What people who lose their jobs, who are displaced, who may go off and garden, 552 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,637 but how are they going to live? And what kind of I mean, it sounds to me like 553 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,437 >> to be universal high income. 554 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:48,637 >> But how are you going to get there? 555 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,717 Let's talk about the politics of this cuz right now 556 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,717 we if we look at the political pressures in most countries, people are very, very 557 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,997 worried about this, very against it. 558 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,637 I mean, it seems to me that there's a risk that we are heading more for 559 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,917 revolution than for an easy route to this nirvana you're playing out. 560 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:09,517 >> I mean, it will be a bumpy road. I'm not suggesting it will be 561 00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,637 a sort of that everything will be smooth sailing here. 562 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:19,317 Um so I mean, there are many jobs that used to 563 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,917 exist that don't exist because of computers. 564 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:28,317 I mean, the the word computer used to refer to a person doing computations. 565 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,077 Like that used to be a job description of a person. 566 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:35,437 And you can see pictures online of um of buildings that have entire 567 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:40,717 skyscrapers of just filled with people doing calculations to to do things like 568 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,637 calculate the interest on your bank balance. 569 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,677 Um this is how things were done 570 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,397 for a long time until computers came around. And even in 571 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:55,197 the beginning, computers were very expensive and hard to use. 572 00:33:55,280 --> 00:34:00,397 Uh so so the the thing that's different here is that the the pace of change 573 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:04,517 is radically accelerated. So 574 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,797 but still people you know, some people were upset that they 575 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,797 their job of calculating bank interest [clears throat] 576 00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:12,997 it would would no longer be available. 577 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,837 Um but now I think there's it's you'd be 578 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,037 hard-pressed to find people who wanted to do that job. 579 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,637 Um so I think I I have a suggestion for 580 00:34:23,720 --> 00:34:27,477 say what say science fiction 581 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,237 books people might want to read to get a 582 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,957 sense of what the future will be like. 583 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,437 And the the best envisioning of an AI future that I've read are the books by 584 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,757 Ian Banks, the Culture books. >> reading Excession. 585 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,117 So I've I've thanks to you I've started reading these. 586 00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:49,397 But I actually don't find that future a terribly appealing one because I don't 587 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,117 think humans have agency in that future. 588 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,517 >> They have agency >> Minimal compared to the minds. 589 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,957 >> way. >> But yeah, I really I mean Ian Banks as 590 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:02,837 you know was a socialist. Um but Ian Banks had a very different political philosophy. 591 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,237 >> I'm not sure that's I'm not sure I wouldn't totally agree with that. 592 00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:10,277 >> Let's agree that that could be where we end up. I'm I'm concerned about the road 593 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,477 and we live you know, we live in democracies and 594 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,957 people are very worried about this. So I 595 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:20,637 guess two questions. Firstly, do you have to have massive redistribution from 596 00:35:20,720 --> 00:35:24,197 people like you to the people who are losing their jobs? 597 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,557 Do you need to have Do you need to pay more tax? Do you have 598 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,197 much higher taxes on capital so that you 599 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,597 fund some kind of universal income? 600 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,397 Otherwise, what do people live off? 601 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,477 >> I I think that the Treasury should just simply issue people checks. 602 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,917 Oh, you send >> the revenue coming from? I mean I mean 603 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,837 I'm an economist. If you just issue checks, you're going to have inflation. 604 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,237 >> It it you know, this is like a lot of what we're trying to think 605 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,477 about is you these things were relevant in 606 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,677 the past, they will not be relevant in the future. So 607 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,197 like inflation is simply the ratio of 608 00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,117 money to the to to goods and services. 609 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,637 So if the goods and services output 610 00:36:03,720 --> 00:36:06,597 increases dramatically, if it increases 611 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:11,557 you know, 1,000% you can increase the you can literally 612 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,517 print all these case change the database. It's not not really print money. 613 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,797 You create money in the in the database. 614 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:22,597 Um provided the creation of that money uh 615 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:27,157 is less than the rate at which goods and services increase um 616 00:36:27,240 --> 00:36:31,077 you you actually have deflation. So, I'll make a prediction, which is that 617 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:34,757 deflation will be the issue, not inflation. 618 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:39,237 The because because as the output of goods and services increases, um if if 619 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,277 the output of goods and services increases faster than money supply, you 620 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,797 will have deflation. >> I'm actually I'm perfectly willing to 621 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,157 believe that. You may well be right. 622 00:36:46,240 --> 00:36:47,677 Yeah, yeah, absolutely. You may well be 623 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,797 right. But I'm I'm really 624 00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,197 hung up on how we get from the current 625 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:58,237 polarized, angry, fearful 626 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:02,637 policy we have now to this nirvana. And and I think you could you can paint a 627 00:37:02,720 --> 00:37:04,917 picture where people are so scared by this, 628 00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,277 you know, they essentially try to stop it. Maybe they can't, but you get 629 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:13,117 nationalized, there's a kind of, you know, far left government, uh there's 630 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:17,237 exorbitant tax increases, the kind of economy crumbles because people are so 631 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:21,517 worried about a future which does sound quite scary as you describe it. So, how 632 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,437 do you How do you handle the politics now? 633 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,597 >> and terrifying. >> But if if you were in the Yeah, exactly. 634 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,717 Exactly. >> Honestly, and if you ask me on any given 635 00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,557 day, I I I 636 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,237 In fact, even intraday, I've gone from 637 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:39,277 exhilaration to terror regarding AI. So, I'm I'm going to be clear. I'm not like 638 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:43,157 I'm not sort of some, you know, I'm going to try to be sort of candid here 639 00:37:43,240 --> 00:37:47,877 and and just be some, oh, everything's wonderful, some Panglossian 640 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,837 view of the world where everything's, you know, going to be great, no no no 641 00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:53,837 risk. I'm I'm saying there is some risk. 642 00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:58,357 Um >> I think we agree on that. I guess I'm trying to be more sort of, 643 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:03,517 you know, small bore and practical and think about what can be done now to 644 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,597 limit those risks. And you gave a very strong argument for what you and and 645 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,837 your fellow model makers could do. What should the government do? 646 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:13,317 >> would be good to for us to coordinate and and just highlight issues 647 00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,997 that we see in each others' models um to mitigate downside risk. 648 00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,477 >> Well, what should the Should the government Should you be paying more tax 649 00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,597 to fund more transfer programs? 650 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,917 >> Well, first of all, I do I do pay a lot of tax. Um 651 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:32,077 so, um I in fact I um 652 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,717 I set a record for the most amount of taxes ever paid by a by a human. 653 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,957 >> That's also cuz you're the world's richest man. 654 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,710 >> Well, even before that. >> [laughter] 655 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,277 >> So, my guess is that I will pay 656 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,917 many trillions in tax. And I'm fine with that. 657 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:53,757 Um so yeah, um 658 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:54,957 that's just the way it's going to be. 659 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,437 But I don't think in the future when money's relevant, I 660 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,397 think taxation also becomes somewhat irrelevant. 661 00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,677 >> about giving people a sense that they have a share in the upside? 662 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:09,477 >> Sure. >> Giving people shares in SpaceX and Tesla, do you think that's the And 663 00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,517 there's a lot of talk about this right now. 664 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:15,397 >> Um well, one of the reasons I took SpaceX public is so that 665 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:20,397 the public could participate in they could own a piece of SpaceX. Um 666 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:23,997 whereas as a private company, we're very limited in the number of shareholders 667 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,797 we're allowed to have before going public. So, as a public company, 668 00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:29,597 um we can have millions of shareholders. 669 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:33,837 As a private company, we're we're limited to just a few thousand shareholders. 670 00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,557 Um so >> Do you think there should be 671 00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:41,837 distribution of shares like, you know, the Alaska wealth fund is there for which 672 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,677 could you imagine a world and some people talk about the Trump accounts 673 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,677 being a kind of vehicle for this that you a share of your 674 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,597 equity goes to ordinary Americans? 675 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:56,197 >> Right. Well, in in the taxes that like that I that I pay, I mean I'll I'll 676 00:39:56,280 --> 00:40:00,917 you know, so for my stock options, I pay 40% 677 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:05,277 uh income tax on a national basis and then 678 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,597 because I spend I don't know, about 30% of my time in California, 679 00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:13,437 thereabouts, I pay an another sort of a roughly a third of the 680 00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,517 California state taxes, which is 681 00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,117 I know I know around 15%. So, so I I pay 682 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,157 about 45% in taxes just so people know 683 00:40:21,240 --> 00:40:25,197 know this, you know, I don't know if it's quite so roughly half. 684 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,197 >> Um then when I die, there'll be another sort of 685 00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:33,437 >> 45% roughly half that that will be taxed. 686 00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:36,677 Um so at at the end of the day I probably 687 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:40,637 I'll have a quarter of what I what I whatever I have. But 688 00:40:40,720 --> 00:40:44,077 the um 689 00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,917 I I think the only thing it gives me is that for some period of time 690 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:52,117 I would have control of the direction of the companies. 691 00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:56,997 So it's not um that that's pretty much all it it gets 692 00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,717 me and and until I guess the AI is so smart that 693 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:05,437 it's it's it's in charge. And at that point controlling companies won't really 694 00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,397 matter. >> Well, let's talk about that because I 695 00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:11,637 think one of the other things that worries people about the direction we're 696 00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:15,077 heading in and I'm going to caricature it but people think that the direction 697 00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:20,037 of the world is being shaped by a very small number of incredibly powerful 698 00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,157 people and you are right at the top of that list. 699 00:41:22,240 --> 00:41:25,117 >> But what what else is is this different from the from the past? 700 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,157 >> I agree with you. I think I think [laughter] it was like that in the 701 00:41:27,240 --> 00:41:29,077 >> When when when wasn't that the case? 702 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,037 >> ever thus. >> It was ever thus, exactly. 703 00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:34,877 >> It is a as you've described very vividly, it's an incredibly rapid 704 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,197 change. And so let's start with control of your company which you definitely 705 00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,797 have now. Um after the IPO you basically 706 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:45,357 you have 80% odd of voting shares and as I understand it 707 00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:49,517 you can only be removed by a vote of shares which you yourself control. So so 708 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,077 tell me if I'm wrong but I think you can go crazy. 709 00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:56,797 >> in that bucket by the way. The The AI companies are like Google's in that in 710 00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,077 that bucket. Alphabet is controlled by Larry and Sergey. 711 00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,037 Um >> But I think yours is more extreme. The inability to 712 00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,117 >> level of they have 713 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,477 voting control of of that company. 714 00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,397 Mark Zuckerberg has control of a matter. 715 00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:14,397 And and you know, Mark is trying very hard on the AI front and I think 716 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,997 probably will will also have a leading 717 00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,637 AI he's made I think he released one 718 00:42:19,720 --> 00:42:25,037 last week. Um so I think he's he's he'll be one of the 719 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,917 you know Meta will be one of the AI companies. 720 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,597 >> But is it sensible for one person to 721 00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,717 have so much control over a company? 722 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,157 >> Um well, it I really just need to make 723 00:42:35,240 --> 00:42:40,077 sure that I can focus on long-term 724 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:44,477 By long-term I just mean in the my 5 to 10 years. Um 725 00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,357 so one of the the challenges with being a 726 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:51,997 public company is that it is other sort of the pressure to to 727 00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,357 have uh great results every single quarter. 728 00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,117 But and and and to not really invest in 729 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:03,357 things that may only pay off in 5 to 10 years. And 730 00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,997 um in the case of SpaceX, I need I I want 731 00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:09,877 to extend consciousness beyond Earth. 732 00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,877 And and have a 733 00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:17,597 growing civilization on the moon, Mars, and elsewhere in the solar system. 734 00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,677 The return I I think ultimately this would have a very high return on 735 00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:24,597 investment, but in the short term we'll be spending all this money on a moon base 736 00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:28,917 or in a Mars base and then people are like I you know, I'm going to I'm going to 737 00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,837 get all this pressure for like, "Well, you missed your earnings this quarter 738 00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,637 cuz you spent too much on Mars." And I'm like, "Yes." By the way, that was in the 739 00:43:35,720 --> 00:43:38,477 in the S1 prospectus and it's it's it's 740 00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,077 literally listed as a thing we will do. 741 00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:44,637 Um so we do so. But but but they still get grumpy about 742 00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:48,037 these things, you know? Cuz they're like, "Well, you had whatever, you know, 743 00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,237 you said your gross margin would be this and it's actually slightly worse and 744 00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:55,077 then now now we're going to punish you and and the short sellers all descend 745 00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,357 upon you and you get a lot of pressure to public >> get a lot of that. 746 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,877 >> Yeah, so I just need some way to sort of 747 00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:04,757 you know, say like, "Listen, guys, we're we're going to focus on 5 to 10 year or 748 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:09,637 longer time horizon investments. This will depress our short-term earnings, 749 00:44:09,720 --> 00:44:13,357 but the long I mean, if you take a long-term view and there are investors 750 00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,077 we have many investors that do take a long-term view. In fact, 751 00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:20,437 I'm a big fan of the the retail investors. In fact, I find our retail investors 752 00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:22,917 um on balance have the have the 753 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,037 the they're very insightful and and have 754 00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:30,477 very long-term views. Um But but it part of this comes to you 755 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:31,477 say, "What's the incentive structure?" 756 00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:36,437 Is it the for portfolio managers, it's it's sort of understandable what why 757 00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,437 they put so much pressure on on a on a 758 00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:40,117 quarterly earnings because 759 00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:44,117 um their their compensation and their um 760 00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:48,677 and whether they get promoted or not is dependent on how their portfolio does. 761 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,677 And they they have they only have a few years 762 00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,597 to to make these decisions. Um and then 763 00:44:55,680 --> 00:45:00,157 they're evaluated based on those decisions over the course of sometimes only 764 00:45:00,240 --> 00:45:03,557 a year or less. And uh and so since since they're under 765 00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,477 pressure to have immediate returns, they then put 766 00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,957 companies under pressure to have immediate returns. So once you 767 00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:12,437 understand the incentive structure, the 768 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:14,917 behavior of naturally follows. 769 00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:20,437 >> What about though key man risk? I mean, what happens you know, I heaven forbid, 770 00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:24,557 but what happens if you get run over by the proverbial bus tomorrow? You know, 771 00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,517 it is you you have total control over these 772 00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:31,077 companies. Do you have a plan for how they would progress without you? 773 00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,717 >> I I think they would actually 774 00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:38,197 do very well for for for several years. 775 00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:40,237 Um 776 00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:45,277 And you know, there's a clear road map for or space map, I should say, for 777 00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:50,357 SpaceX. Um And there's a a road map 778 00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,557 actually for Tesla literally. Um 779 00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:57,517 So I think I think there's you know, if you look at Apple after 780 00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,357 Steve Jobs, you know, Steve Jobs had 781 00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:01,797 you know, he he he had a strategic 782 00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:05,597 vision and a bunch of products that um 783 00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,717 that that he had had ideas for and Apple has done very well. 784 00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,917 Um but but the but when you don't have a creative genius 785 00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:18,637 like Steve Jobs you don't you you you what what you miss 786 00:46:18,720 --> 00:46:22,637 what's what Apple's missing are the incredible breakthrough products. 787 00:46:22,720 --> 00:46:26,357 >> Yeah. >> So they make amazing phones, you know, 788 00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:30,557 great computers um but Apple hasn't come up with a sort of 789 00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,437 Steve Jobs Steve Jobs level breakthrough product. 790 00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:38,197 >> So by analogy, that's what you bring to all of your companies. 791 00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:43,117 You mentioned Mars, you know, most people think of you 792 00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,917 as the man who wants to, you know, create a colony on Mars so we have 793 00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,837 multi-planetary civilization. >> saying that for such a long time. 794 00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,037 >> You have but now you seem more focused 795 00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:57,197 on AI and what AI will do in the next 10 years and you you sound much more 796 00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,477 excited about using the moon as a base 797 00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:03,117 from which to, you know, pop out orbital 798 00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,637 AI satellites. Have you shifted your attention away 799 00:47:06,720 --> 00:47:08,757 from Mars or are you as interested in 800 00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,757 colonizing Mars as you ever were? 801 00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:16,117 >> I I'm I'm interested in the set of actions that propagate consciousness 802 00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,237 into the future to the maximum degree possible. 803 00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,157 So that the future light cone of consciousness 804 00:47:23,240 --> 00:47:26,437 is as big as as big as we can, you know, like like 805 00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:30,357 you know, there's a there's an exciting future where there's a where there's a 806 00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:35,117 spacefaring civilization out there among the stars and 807 00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,717 and the the great things that are envisioned in 808 00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:42,477 the non-dystopian sci-fi 809 00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:46,757 books and movies come become real one day. 810 00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:51,717 I sort of want the Star Trek you know Star Wars future. Star Wars was 811 00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:53,477 the first movie I ever saw in the theater, by the way. 812 00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,237 >> Really? >> It was probably maybe had a profound effect on me, I suppose. Um 813 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,397 so, I remember I was I I was 814 00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:04,717 it blew my mind, honestly. I was I think I was 6 years old and um I was like, 815 00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:06,397 "This is the greatest thing I've ever seen." 816 00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,837 >> Has your life been about making that happen? 817 00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,717 >> Yeah. I mean, it I didn't think it would be, but at the 818 00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,557 when I was young, but um I'm my life feels somewhat surreal. I I can't 819 00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,917 believe these things are actually happening, you know. 820 00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,277 Um >> I think the world feels somewhat surreal. 821 00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:27,477 >> in simulation theory. Where it's like, "Well, this 822 00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,997 Like the the things I'm doing are so preposterous that um 823 00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:33,917 it's hard to believe they're real. 824 00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:39,037 I mean, we've got Starship, which is the largest, most powerful 825 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:42,797 flying object ever made. Um 826 00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:45,637 and we intend to launch that 827 00:48:45,720 --> 00:48:50,317 more than once per hour. >> I know. I read that. And we can, you 828 00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:52,877 know, people can quibble about how quickly it happens, but I think based on 829 00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,877 your track record, we should assume it will happen at some point. 830 00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,277 >> It will happen. >> I I'm just sort of struck that when I 831 00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,397 when I I am as as blown away by this 832 00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,197 world as you are and I'm I watch it from 833 00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,757 a from a much more naive level, but 834 00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:09,437 for me, the whole evolution of AI and 835 00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,277 the capabilities of these models is in 836 00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,997 and of itself so mind-blowing. 837 00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,277 >> It's pretty much happening as I as I thought thought it would. 838 00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,397 >> Is it? >> Yeah. >> Oh, that's interesting. [laughter] 839 00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:23,517 >> Um 840 00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:27,117 And not just me, but many people um 841 00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:31,717 predicted this. Like, Ray Kurzweil predict Ray Ray Kurzweil's predictions have 842 00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,717 been remarkably accurate. >> Yeah, the singularity. 843 00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,037 >> Yeah. >> Approaching. Let's go back and more 844 00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:40,597 immediately to the here and now. We've talked about concentration of control in 845 00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,517 your companies. You made a very good case for why you should have it. You 846 00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:49,517 also have, through Starlink, incredible geopolitical power. I mean, I'm I'm one 847 00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:50,757 of your customers. >> Thank you. 848 00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:52,277 >> Excellent product. >> I I hope you're right. 849 00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,637 >> But without them, the Ukrainians would have been in serious serious trouble. 850 00:49:55,720 --> 00:49:57,757 >> Um yes, the Ukrainian government has 851 00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,717 publicly thanked Starlink many times for 852 00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,077 being instrumental in 853 00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:07,757 uh defending Ukraine. >> And you recently decided to prevent the 854 00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:11,757 Russians in the occupied territories from having access to Starlink. 855 00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:16,597 >> Um well, no that we do we were we were never at any point 856 00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,677 selling Starlink to Russians. Um but they were grabbing it, right? 857 00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:21,677 They were using it and you now >> Yes. 858 00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:25,957 Well, what they they they essentially got Starlink units 859 00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:31,477 that they ordered through Ukraine and then and then smuggled them into 860 00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,557 the into eastern Ukraine where the Russians are. 861 00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:40,077 Um and were then using them in some cases for 862 00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:44,397 attacks. Um Now, the 863 00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:49,157 in order to address this, um what we worked with the Ukrainian 864 00:50:49,240 --> 00:50:53,717 government to create a white list of approved Starlink terminals. 865 00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,877 Now, this has some downsides because a whole bunch of people who were just 866 00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:01,997 innocent users of Starlink and just trying to access the internet for work 867 00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:06,037 or for education now don't have Starlink. 868 00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,997 >> These are geopolitical decisions of consequence. How do you feel about 869 00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,437 having that power? You could determine the outcome of wars. 870 00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:18,357 How does that feel? And is it right that you should have that power? 871 00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:24,077 >> Well, I I'm not sure we're we're determining the ultimate outcome of the 872 00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:28,600 you know, that the say the war in Ukraine. Um 873 00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:33,557 You know, I I I think I do hope that that that that there's some sort of 874 00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:37,197 peace agreement reached soon because um 875 00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,357 for 876 00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:44,557 like two or three years now the border has barely moved and um 877 00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:47,797 and every day there are lots of people dying at the 878 00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:52,117 front line and um and I think there's a lot of wishful 879 00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:56,157 thinking here of of people saying well Russia should completely withdraw etc. 880 00:51:56,240 --> 00:51:58,317 But this is not realistic. Um I really 881 00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,157 think there needs to be some 882 00:52:02,240 --> 00:52:07,437 um you know a peace with that that is 883 00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,197 that you know we have to be pragmatic about 884 00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:13,637 this. What we can't what I think would be 885 00:52:13,720 --> 00:52:17,957 terrible is if if there's if there's another three years of people dying 886 00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,077 senselessly at the front lines. 887 00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:26,160 Um with with the and you have to say like well 888 00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:33,117 you know how do you explain to the the the children of of the men that 889 00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:36,477 are dying at the front lines. Russia on the Russian side too by the way they're 890 00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,357 they're being conscripted and sent there. I'm white 891 00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,957 offended by sort of fancy diplomats who have 892 00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,797 you know seven course dinners in in 893 00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:50,277 you know in luxurious places while people are dying at the front lines and 894 00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:54,197 who who pontificate about how Russia should withdraw but they're not going to 895 00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:56,597 Russia's Russia's not going to withdraw. 896 00:52:56,680 --> 00:53:02,317 So there really needs to be an accepted peace long along those lines. 897 00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:04,277 Um >> And do you think it's your 898 00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:09,357 responsibility to play a role in tipping the scales towards what you see as the 899 00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:11,837 right way to peace? >> I 900 00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:17,157 I'd like I've been advocating peace for a long time. I you know I I posted 901 00:53:17,240 --> 00:53:22,157 a few years ago that that that there really needs to be some concession 902 00:53:22,240 --> 00:53:25,877 here to Russia. Um This is not me being pro-Russia. I'm 903 00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:30,437 just being pragmatic um or people will die for years 904 00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:34,877 uh with nothing achieved and that is exactly 905 00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:39,477 what happened. >> I don't know. I mean the Ukrainians >> Exactly what happened. 906 00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:42,917 >> The Ukrainians do are doing pretty well right now at 907 00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,997 you know, with that incredible drone capacity hitting inside Russia and the 908 00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:51,557 and the kind of general consensus is that, you know, the the the balance of 909 00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,317 the war is shifting. But, my point is not so much about what 910 00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:55,877 >> not going to retake those territories. 911 00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,917 It is not going to happen. >> My interest is really on whether you 912 00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:03,437 think given that you you have through Starlink, you have an incredible power, 913 00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:06,957 whether it's appropriate that you should wield it. And that's 914 00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:09,637 quite rare that an individual actor has 915 00:54:09,720 --> 00:54:14,797 such power by turning on and off a capability to shape conflict. 916 00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:18,720 >> Well, is there something you think I should do differently? 917 00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:22,797 >> I mean, I I think you were right to support Ukraine. I think that, you know, 918 00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:27,357 as you as it won't surprise you, I I think that the Russian aggression was 919 00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:31,277 uh I, you know, for many, many reasons an appalling aggression. And I I think 920 00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,077 that that was an important thing that you did. 921 00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:38,717 >> Yeah, I mean, I did a a very deep dive into the background of that conflict to 922 00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,037 understand exactly what was going on. 923 00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:45,320 Um and um 924 00:54:46,240 --> 00:54:50,397 I'm reminded of the old adage that there are no angels in war. 925 00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:54,517 >> It's a similar tone, I think, about domestic politics where you've 926 00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:58,037 you know, you've you've played a big role domestically 927 00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:02,077 politically here. You spend a lot of money on Donald Trump's re-election. 928 00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:05,357 After the election, you got very actively involved, you know, through 929 00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:07,717 Dodge, you tried to cut a lot of 930 00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:10,477 spending, reshape the government. 931 00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:14,677 How do you feel that it wasn't hugely successful in the sense that, you know, 932 00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,277 there wasn't nearly as much spending cut as you tried. How do you as you look 933 00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:21,317 back on that? Do you regret getting so involved in 934 00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:23,837 politics? Do you think it was a good thing to do? 935 00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,477 >> I think I I think I got a little too involved in politics, got carried away, 936 00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:31,917 frankly. Um so the um 937 00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,877 you know, the the the goal with the sort of Dodge stuff was was to try to do 938 00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:39,077 something about the the deficit, which is massive. Um 939 00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:44,077 where the interest payments exceed the amount of money spent on 940 00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:47,797 the Department of War. Like basically, if you add up all the money spent on 941 00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:51,157 um what is now the Department of War and 942 00:55:51,240 --> 00:55:55,477 the and and intelligence in the US, uh that is smaller than the interest 943 00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:59,517 payments on the debt. So, that well, we we we we need to sort of take a close 944 00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:02,957 look at spending, um and make sure that uh money is being 945 00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:04,717 spent in sensible ways and that it is 946 00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:08,557 not wasted or spent on on fraudulent 947 00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:13,717 activities. Um and um I got a lot of flak from this for this, 948 00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,997 obviously. Um but the the the people don't understand 949 00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:19,877 just how um 950 00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,077 simple it was for for the DOS team to 951 00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,557 approve payments. Um 952 00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:29,797 if if we had literally we we we just asked to have the contact information of 953 00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:33,557 the recipients, um or some evidence that say money was 954 00:56:33,640 --> 00:56:37,597 going to um its intended purpose. 955 00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:40,797 Um but over and over there we were we told oh 956 00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:45,317 we we need to wire money for some sort of important cause in Africa. 957 00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:49,757 And we're like, "Okay, but the wiring wiring instructions are to Deloitte & 958 00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:53,077 Touche in DC in Washington, DC, not to Africa. 959 00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:56,557 So, we would like to send the money to Africa. Can you please connect us with 960 00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:59,757 the recipients so we can send them the money directly?" 961 00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:03,397 And then we'd get silence. >> I I I have We don't need to relitigate 962 00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:08,357 DOS. I have no doubt that there was there's a lot of waste in the US 963 00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:11,877 government. I think probably >> Much worse than anyone could possibly imagine. 964 00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:15,517 >> But the way I I mean, I think there is it is a fair criticism that the way you 965 00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:19,077 shut down a whole bunch of programs probably in fact, certainly caused 966 00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,357 unnecessary suffering. I mean, >> No. 967 00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:25,157 >> No? >> No. >> You You don't buy that at all. 968 00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:27,477 >> It It caused a lot of complaining. 969 00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:31,917 >> You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. If you want to get early access to 970 00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,917 other interviews, subscribe to the economist by clicking the link above. 971 00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:40,277 Now, back to the interview. You don't So, you don't buy the idea that anybody, 972 00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:44,237 and to put it really crudely and simply, any kid in Africa died because of the 973 00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:46,517 suddenness with which >> Zero. 974 00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,557 >> I just don't think that's right. I just don't think my I mean, I've had people 975 00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:53,397 reporting in Africa >> How many NGOs are there that could that 976 00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:57,797 could that could step in? Cuz bear in mind, this it it was 977 00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:02,477 it happened quickly. So, this and there are literally tens of thousands of NGOs. 978 00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:06,437 >> Yeah, not everyone functions as far as as you do. If if if if funding is cut 979 00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:11,557 off for antiretrovirals overnight and it just stops, then people will die when 980 00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:15,117 they don't have access to them. And it just >> No, it No, only if they cannot get 981 00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:18,917 funding for that. But what the Gates Foundation has $50 billion. 982 00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:21,597 What's what What What about that? 983 00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:25,117 What about any one of a number of organizations? What about um 984 00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:28,877 the uh um >> Well, in many of these countries, USAID 985 00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:33,917 >> whatever last name is must be Bezos uh gave $50 billion. What about that? 986 00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:35,357 >> But you don't ask me Let's be practical. 987 00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:38,517 In many of these countries, USAID was the biggest funder. But I I don't want 988 00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:41,197 to have an >> USAID was a political organization. 989 00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,117 >> It may also have been that, but it was the biggest funder of of health care 990 00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:48,277 system. So, I I I am I'm very sure that there's >> of 991 00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:53,357 of regime change. >> And and there may well be benefits from having 992 00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:55,677 changed the system. >> funding was not stopped. It was moved to 993 00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,157 the State Department. >> It was stopped. There were huge numbers 994 00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:01,877 of things shut down in Africa that were that were kind of health related. 995 00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:05,157 >> of this. These claims are false. 996 00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:07,997 They're nonsense. And and absolute 997 00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,117 nonsense. But but obviously 998 00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:12,757 just for 999 00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,957 when funding is stopped for a fraudulent 1000 00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:20,077 organizations or for something, do you think they're going to say Do you think 1001 00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,917 they're going to say, "Well, we please keep funding the fraud?" Or do you think 1002 00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:28,397 they're going to come up with a sad story that sounds sympathetic in order 1003 00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,597 to get the funding restored. Obviously, it would be the latter, and that's 1004 00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:36,197 exactly what they did. But, zero died because 1005 00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,557 >> Well, that's what I That's what I That's 1006 00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,637 what I would take issue with. I think you can I actually have a lot of 1007 00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:46,197 sympathy for the change of the aid regime that the US under the Trump 1008 00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:47,917 administration has precipitated. 1009 00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:50,677 However, I think the pace and the 1010 00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:55,877 suddenness with which it happened will almost certainly have caused unnecessary 1011 00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:57,717 suffering and deaths. And I think both of those could have been 1012 00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:00,437 >> that's totally false. >> Okay. Well, let's 1013 01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:04,117 >> And obviously false because there there are are 1014 01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,717 the amount of funding we're talking about uh is far less than what can be 1015 01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:12,437 done that that that what can be supported by a private uh 1016 01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:16,997 by a foundation like the Gates Foundation uh or McKenzie Bezos's 1017 01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:20,317 foundation. Um she's given away tens of billions of dollars. 1018 01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:25,117 Um the Gates Foundation has tens of billions of dollars. Uh they are capable 1019 01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:28,877 of acting very quickly. Um and if they didn't, I would say 1020 01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:31,757 they're equally responsible. >> I see. Okay. 1021 01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:35,837 >> Obviously. >> All right. Fair point. Um >> Zero people 1022 01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:37,437 >> I hear I hear you loud and clear. 1023 01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:39,677 >> Zero. >> Hear you loud and clear. 1024 01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:43,997 >> Obviously. >> Uh domestically, you you stepped away from 1025 01:00:44,080 --> 01:00:47,277 those. It It was hard to do what you were trying to do. You've just explained 1026 01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:50,277 it. But, this administration has gone in 1027 01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:54,477 directions that I suspect you were not expecting 1028 01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:56,357 2 and 1/2 years ago. You know, the >> going to agree with I'm not going to 1029 01:00:56,440 --> 01:00:59,437 agree with everything any administration does. 1030 01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:01,397 >> Are you disappointed by this administration? 1031 01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:05,197 >> No, I think this is a this administration on balance uh is is 1032 01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:09,117 excellent. No No administration is perfect, but 1033 01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:12,757 it's a vastly better than the alternative. 1034 01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:17,637 >> Can we talk about Europe? A place that you are very, very focused on. 1035 01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:21,117 Um >> that focused on Europe. >> I think judging by your posts, you're 1036 01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:25,037 pretty concerned about Europe. Uh you you support 1037 01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:28,317 >> I I once in a while I post something. 1038 01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:31,557 >> It's reasonably frequently. It's not once in a while. But But I'm because I'm 1039 01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:35,197 genuinely interested in this as someone who lives in Europe, lives in London. 1040 01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:37,717 >> Yeah. >> Uh you paint a picture Well, first of 1041 01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:40,917 all, you support not just the populist right, but the far right. In fact, very 1042 01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:42,597 fringe parties in some countries. 1043 01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:44,757 >> support the normal people. >> Okay. 1044 01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,077 >> What do you call the far right falsely? 1045 01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:48,957 >> You think it's the normal person. Okay. 1046 01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:51,877 >> Yes. >> Um >> Literally, you could you could go back 1047 01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:55,197 uh 10 or 15 years and these these these 1048 01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,437 these policies were completely normal. 1049 01:01:57,520 --> 01:02:01,117 In fact, you you uh one of the one of the one of the tricks I think is is is 1050 01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:06,037 funny. I think it's it's quite funny is to like take a speech from Obama and 1051 01:02:06,120 --> 01:02:11,077 Hillary and then and then go to someone and say uh who's who's sort of um 1052 01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:14,917 you know, on the sort of what I call the lunatic left. Um and say, "What do you 1053 01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:18,277 think of the speech by Trump?" And like, "Oh wow, he's the worst person ever." 1054 01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:22,957 Actually, that was a speech by Obama. Or actually, that was a speech by Hillary. 1055 01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:26,317 >> Uh I I I I I agree No, I agree that the center 1056 01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:28,237 of gravity in this country has shifted. 1057 01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:30,357 Certainly, the Democratic Party shifted to the left. But that's not what I'm 1058 01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:32,637 talking about. I'm talking about people like Rupert Lowe. I'm talking about 1059 01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:36,397 >> please. It's It's actually just normal people. Um it's just normal people. It's 1060 01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:40,197 just normal people. And um the And And here are the principles. And And tell me 1061 01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:44,677 which of these sound terrible. Um that we should have secure borders, that we 1062 01:02:44,760 --> 01:02:49,597 should have safe cities, uh that we should have sensible spending. 1063 01:02:49,680 --> 01:02:53,757 Which of those three are are are are are far right fringe? 1064 01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:56,677 >> I would like to just admonish you >> Do you 1065 01:02:56,760 --> 01:02:58,397 >> and the media 1066 01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:01,197 for the absurd characterization of the 1067 01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:04,117 far right. It is false and misleading 1068 01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:06,917 and nonsense. Please keep this part in. 1069 01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,437 >> We'll keep all of this in. But let me >> [laughter] >> Let me Let me 1070 01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:11,877 >> Don't cut this part. >> Let me push back on that. Let me push 1071 01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:13,957 back on that because you have 1072 01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:19,317 >> You know, you have What is it? Close to 250 million followers on X. 1073 01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:21,557 >> Yeah, cuz I'm >> You say things like >> Popular guy. 1074 01:03:21,640 --> 01:03:25,437 >> quote, "Civil war in Britain is inevitable. Just a question of when." 1075 01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:29,997 >> yes. >> I mean, when were you last in the UK? 1076 01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:33,997 >> Um a few years ago. >> Exactly. So So I live there. I'm there 1077 01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:35,397 the whole time. That is nonsense. 1078 01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,397 >> in a cloistered existence. >> No, I don't, actually. And the numbers 1079 01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:41,037 also disprove what you say. >> What numbers? 1080 01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:44,597 >> All the numbers about crime. London is a much safer city than any city in the 1081 01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:48,197 United States. Violent crime in the UK is not where you think it is. In fact, 1082 01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:51,557 it's coming down. You You have painted, and because you have so many followers, 1083 01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:53,237 so many Americans believe it, a a kind 1084 01:03:53,320 --> 01:03:57,317 of view that Europe and and the UK are 1085 01:03:57,400 --> 01:04:01,357 kind of, you know, overrun with terrifying Muslim immigrants. There's 1086 01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:04,597 rape on every corner. There's a sort of civilizational destruction. 1087 01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:07,517 >> any of those things. >> not Well, you said "Civil war in Britain 1088 01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:10,677 is inevitable." And then >> Yes, if current trends continue, it is. 1089 01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:15,357 >> Why? >> Well, if if you have uh a 1090 01:04:15,440 --> 01:04:16,837 large 1091 01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:19,437 uh and growing, rapidly growing 1092 01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:22,877 uh group of people whose beliefs are 1093 01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:28,157 antithetical to Western beliefs, um at some point there will be a 1094 01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:31,477 reckoning. They They They They will They will try 1095 01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:36,157 to implement their views, and those who oppose it will oppose it, and that's 1096 01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:41,757 what you call civil war. And obviously, this is the trend. Um and 1097 01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:46,277 uh and and you absolutely do live in a cloistered existence. And if you'd like, 1098 01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:47,797 we can go on a tour of Britain. 1099 01:04:47,880 --> 01:04:50,917 >> Sure. I I'd be very happy to come on a tour of Britain. 1100 01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:52,637 >> And then and you will see for yourself. 1101 01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:56,637 >> country that I live in all the time, and you haven't been to a few years ago. 1102 01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:59,797 >> literally 100 times. >> But when was the last time? 1103 01:04:59,880 --> 01:05:00,677 >> Like literally a few years ago. 1104 01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:02,677 >> You know why I this exercises me? 1105 01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:05,517 Because you have really shaped opinion 1106 01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:09,957 about the UK, and so many Americans I come across, and I have conversations 1107 01:05:10,040 --> 01:05:13,597 with them, and they have been And I just had one the day, along the order of oh, 1108 01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,677 London's such a dangerous place. How can you know there there are sort of 1109 01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:20,037 grooming gangs everywhere. There are there's violence everywhere. This is a 1110 01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:22,437 picture that people get from things that 1111 01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:24,917 you post or that are posted on X. And 1112 01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:27,357 for example, you you're posting for what 1113 01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:30,157 was it? 48 hours of citizen vigilante. 1114 01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:34,157 That film which, you know, paints a dystopian I've watched it. 1115 01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:36,357 >> Yes. >> It was not fun. I watched it yesterday. 1116 01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:39,877 It's not a very good movie. But it's also paints a dystopian picture of 1117 01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:44,677 Europe. And it glorifies vigilante violence. It glorifies the murdering of 1118 01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:47,797 a Muslim immigrant family. I honestly think that it is 1119 01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,077 irresponsible for you to put that up on X. 1120 01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:52,437 >> I think that it's it's a movie. 1121 01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:53,997 Um and it's worth watching. 1122 01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:56,637 >> You're clearly suggesting Europe is 1123 01:05:56,720 --> 01:05:59,917 dystopian place and you 1124 01:06:00,000 --> 01:06:04,437 >> Yes, I mean why aren't you more 1125 01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:08,157 doing more to fight censorship in Europe? Why aren't you? 1126 01:06:08,240 --> 01:06:11,557 >> I I >> seem to be doing anything to fight censorship in Europe. 1127 01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:14,117 >> I I think that there are there are issues with 1128 01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:18,557 >> in prison in the UK for social media posts. Do you think that's appropriate? 1129 01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,557 >> No, I mean we've written editorials against it. But I don't think my point 1130 01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:23,237 is with the UK. >> of thing that I think is bad. 1131 01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:26,637 >> think if you and I agree with you, but I don't think you have to glorify 1132 01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,277 vigilante violence and kind of, you 1133 01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:34,157 know, post the things that you are doing and paint an entirely inaccurate picture 1134 01:06:34,240 --> 01:06:36,877 of Europe that you do. >> think it is. 1135 01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:39,157 >> We should we should do a tour of the UK. 1136 01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:42,717 >> Yes, and one >> Cuz the UK has actually been very good 1137 01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:47,437 at integrating immigrants. The UK has a is is very effective at doing that. 1138 01:06:47,520 --> 01:06:50,157 There are problems. I'm the first to admit that there are problems. 1139 01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:51,277 >> Yes, there are major problems. 1140 01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:52,677 >> There are problems, but it is not it 1141 01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:55,837 really is not what you are 1142 01:06:55,920 --> 01:07:00,477 describing to or suggesting to your 240 million followers it is. And I think 1143 01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:04,797 there's a problem. >> No, I think I'm I think I'm spot on. 1144 01:07:04,880 --> 01:07:07,997 >> We'll we'll have to >> why you have freedom of speech or at least 1145 01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:10,357 >> You don't want people to can are wrong, but your point is not [clears throat] 1146 01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,477 that you're not just saying I have every right to say what I want. You're saying, 1147 01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:17,477 you know, I am right about Europe and I really don't think you are. 1148 01:07:17,560 --> 01:07:21,717 >> I think I am. >> I think you will find that most people 1149 01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:24,397 in Europe or many people in Europe don't think you're right about it, but let's 1150 01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:26,557 let's come to that. But >> Because the media keeps ignoring what's 1151 01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:31,197 ignoring reality. >> I don't think that's true, either. I really I really 1152 01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:32,837 >> by the TV and conventional media. 1153 01:07:32,920 --> 01:07:37,237 >> but And why are you This is I guess the even to me sort of the bigger picture 1154 01:07:37,320 --> 01:07:40,877 question. Why do you focus on this? Why are you 1155 01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:45,197 interested in it? Because on the one hand, you know, we started this conversation 1156 01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:49,157 and you described to me this extraordinary transformative 1157 01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:55,037 amazing sort Yeah, civilization-changing stuff that's happening in the next 10 1158 01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:58,677 years. >> Yes. >> And yet you're also, you know, a an 1159 01:07:58,760 --> 01:08:02,837 ongoing participant in the worst kind of tribalism 1160 01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:05,357 uh you know, cesspit of social media. 1161 01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:09,117 Like, how does that fit? Are you, you know, on the one They're two very 1162 01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:14,880 different views of the world. >> Yeah, I don't think they're inconsistent. 1163 01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:18,517 >> But why do you do the latter one, the tribalism? I mean, people say that 1164 01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:21,677 you're a racist. People say that you're, you know, there's all kinds of things 1165 01:08:21,760 --> 01:08:26,997 said about you, which I'm sure you would disagree with. Um but 1166 01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:29,437 I just don't understand what is the motivation for doing that. Are you 1167 01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:31,677 fermenting >> is is um 1168 01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:36,837 she's half Indian and my my and I have four children with her. 1169 01:08:36,920 --> 01:08:40,437 Um you know, um 1170 01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:42,077 one of them was named after an 1171 01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:48,117 a famous Indian physicist. Um so I I would say I'm not racist and also 1172 01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:53,237 uh the you know, if you look at the people that are employed at my companies, 1173 01:08:53,320 --> 01:08:57,837 um you know, we have senior executives of all races. 1174 01:08:57,920 --> 01:09:00,877 Uh there's there's there's I don't think there's any racism there. 1175 01:09:00,960 --> 01:09:02,997 >> Are you anti-Muslim? 1176 01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:06,197 >> Um I am 1177 01:09:06,280 --> 01:09:10,200 I'm I'm against uh 1178 01:09:10,960 --> 01:09:14,797 having if if if if people are coming to a country 1179 01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:19,077 with antithetical views 1180 01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:23,157 um I I am against that. 1181 01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:27,520 I I'm against that. You know, I'm against um 1182 01:09:28,440 --> 01:09:30,877 I I I'm against rape and murder. 1183 01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:34,277 I'm against uh the 1184 01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:37,717 imposition of 1185 01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:41,877 rules and laws that are 1186 01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:45,477 contrary to what we've 1187 01:09:45,560 --> 01:09:52,477 come to accept in the West. Um and um 1188 01:09:52,560 --> 01:09:56,477 and I think it's it's it's a crying shame that the sort of traditional media 1189 01:09:56,560 --> 01:10:00,197 like you um uh don't recognize this. 1190 01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:04,517 >> First of all, I think that you hugely exaggerate 1191 01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:06,117 the challenges that Europe faces. 1192 01:10:06,200 --> 01:10:10,077 Secondly, in areas I completely agree with you. I I I think that, you know, 1193 01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:13,437 the constraints on freedom of speech in in the UK in certain areas are 1194 01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:17,237 problematic. What worries me is that the people you 1195 01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:21,397 are supporting are really quite vile people in some areas. Like some members 1196 01:10:21,480 --> 01:10:23,277 of the AfD, Alice Weidel, whom I've met, 1197 01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:26,277 is a perfectly thoughtful person. But in 1198 01:10:26,360 --> 01:10:29,197 her party, are some real neo-Nazis. Are 1199 01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:32,557 some really, really awful people. And 1200 01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:37,197 your blanket support of this kind of party with 240 million followers means 1201 01:10:37,280 --> 01:10:40,837 that you have a power in Europe 1202 01:10:40,920 --> 01:10:45,677 that I think perhaps you don't realize the scale of impact you have. But you 1203 01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:47,957 can >> I hope I hope I'm having a big impact. 1204 01:10:48,040 --> 01:10:51,957 >> But why? Why should you Why should you be able to shape European politics? What 1205 01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:56,557 You don't even live there. >> I think of it as the sort of the West collectively. 1206 01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,397 >> But do you see why this makes people think 1207 01:10:59,480 --> 01:11:02,997 that this man, who has all this power, he's the world's richest man, he thinks 1208 01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:07,157 he has a right to influence our politics. It makes people It's why, you 1209 01:11:07,240 --> 01:11:11,637 know, we started this conversation saying superlatives, it's why people loathe you. 1210 01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:12,717 I mean, some people do loathe you. 1211 01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:15,917 >> Yes, some people do. >> But do you understand why? 1212 01:11:16,000 --> 01:11:18,797 Do you think what you're doing is helpful for Western democracy? 1213 01:11:18,880 --> 01:11:22,477 >> maybe some people do loathe me. I And that's And that's probably true. I don't 1214 01:11:22,560 --> 01:11:27,517 care. Um the uh but but the fact that uh 1215 01:11:27,600 --> 01:11:30,997 as you pointed out a quarter billion people follow me is 1216 01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:35,437 that I think a lot more people actually like me than don't. 1217 01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:37,277 And I think a lot more people hate you 1218 01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:41,357 and the media uh more than you realize. 1219 01:11:41,440 --> 01:11:45,437 Do you realize the media is despised? Do Do you realize that that journalists how 1220 01:11:45,520 --> 01:11:50,277 the view of journalists is is is like 1221 01:11:50,360 --> 01:11:53,837 it's it's like the a favorable view of journalists is like 15%. 1222 01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:57,797 >> in the United States. >> You So so the shoe is on the other foot. 1223 01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:01,717 They hate you. They hate you 1224 01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:05,477 far more than they hate me. >> I think there is certainly lots of trust 1225 01:12:05,560 --> 01:12:10,237 in journalism. I think in part and there have been mistakes by journalists and 1226 01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:12,357 journalism. I totally acknowledge that. 1227 01:12:12,440 --> 01:12:14,637 But I also think that the kind of 1228 01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:19,557 polarized environment, particularly on social media, fostered by the kinds of 1229 01:12:19,640 --> 01:12:23,717 things you are pushing on X actually helps this. Makes it worse. 1230 01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:26,480 >> I don't think so. 1231 01:12:27,480 --> 01:12:30,357 I think I think you're the problem, the media. 1232 01:12:30,440 --> 01:12:35,837 Um and And And speaking of loathing, you are loathed far more than I am. And you 1233 01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:37,277 don't seem to even realize that. 1234 01:12:37,360 --> 01:12:40,237 >> I think very few people know who I am relative to you, so I don't think I play 1235 01:12:40,320 --> 01:12:43,437 in the same game. >> collectively. Um 1236 01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:47,880 so I mean, you're hated. 1237 01:12:48,080 --> 01:12:50,237 Do you even Do you even know that? 1238 01:12:50,320 --> 01:12:53,757 You probably don't. >> I I like to think that I'm aware of 1239 01:12:53,840 --> 01:12:57,597 my own personal shortcomings and the economist shortcomings and I'm our world 1240 01:12:57,680 --> 01:13:00,077 view shortcomings. But what we stand for 1241 01:13:00,160 --> 01:13:03,397 as you as you know is liberal values, 1242 01:13:03,480 --> 01:13:08,077 traditional classical liberal values where we worry about concentrations of 1243 01:13:08,160 --> 01:13:11,197 power and we believe in the individual and the 1244 01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:16,037 dignity of the individual. I and individual freedom. I firmly believe 1245 01:13:16,120 --> 01:13:19,717 that and I have long thought that you were a classical liberal. But when I 1246 01:13:19,800 --> 01:13:22,477 read what you post classical liberal 1247 01:13:22,560 --> 01:13:24,877 J.S. Mill, limited government, 1248 01:13:24,960 --> 01:13:26,957 individual freedom. 1249 01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:30,037 But when I read what you post 1250 01:13:30,120 --> 01:13:34,397 on your feed, I sometimes wonder whether you really do believe in that. 1251 01:13:34,480 --> 01:13:35,277 Um 1252 01:13:35,360 --> 01:13:38,917 I literally said, "Look, I believe in uh 1253 01:13:39,000 --> 01:13:43,517 safe cities, secure borders, and sensible spending 1254 01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:44,877 with 1255 01:13:44,960 --> 01:13:50,877 with respect to government." Um That doesn't make me right-wing at all. Um 1256 01:13:50,960 --> 01:13:55,477 in the least. >> Does the US or do European countries score better on those? 1257 01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:57,757 >> The US is better. >> No. >> Yes. 1258 01:13:57,840 --> 01:14:02,557 >> Safe cities, much more dangerous in the US than the UK. Sensible spending, 1259 01:14:02,640 --> 01:14:06,877 bigger deficit here, out of control, you managed you you you failed to reduce it. 1260 01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:10,557 Secure borders, now under the Trump administration, I agree with you, before 1261 01:14:10,640 --> 01:14:13,917 not. But on two out of three, unequivocally, Europe is in a better 1262 01:14:14,000 --> 01:14:15,677 place. Yet you seem to paint a picture 1263 01:14:15,760 --> 01:14:21,317 of Europe being a hellhole. >> I don't think Europe's a hellhole. 1264 01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:22,597 >> Okay, we can agree on something. 1265 01:14:22,680 --> 01:14:24,037 >> When when did I ever say that? 1266 01:14:24,120 --> 01:14:27,197 >> Well, the picture you paint of Europe >> just you're making up things. 1267 01:14:27,280 --> 01:14:32,037 >> No, I'm not. You you say you say civil war in Britain is inevitable and 1268 01:14:32,120 --> 01:14:36,037 then you you've you basically proselytize for this citizen 1269 01:14:36,120 --> 01:14:39,797 vigilante film which really does paint Europe as a hellhole. It just starts 1270 01:14:39,880 --> 01:14:42,437 with you know ominous music and it says Europe. 1271 01:14:42,520 --> 01:14:48,280 >> Well, there are there was out of control rape and murder. 1272 01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:52,357 >> It's more dangerous in this country than it is in Europe. 1273 01:14:52,440 --> 01:14:56,357 >> Uh where where there is danger in this country is is because 1274 01:14:56,440 --> 01:14:59,117 we we we fail to incarcerate 1275 01:14:59,200 --> 01:15:01,957 uh repeat violent offenders. 1276 01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:04,637 Um and that's uh you know, the classic 1277 01:15:04,720 --> 01:15:09,197 sort of Soros DA uh or judges that fail to incarcerate 1278 01:15:09,280 --> 01:15:13,037 repeat violent offenders. And if somebody gets arrested 1279 01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:15,797 50 times, literally 1280 01:15:15,880 --> 01:15:20,637 um for violent crimes, uh and and eventually they're going to kill 1281 01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:23,557 somebody. So you So you either you either 1282 01:15:23,640 --> 01:15:26,277 incarcerate them or people will die. 1283 01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:29,157 >> I think the prevalence of guns has quite a lot to do with it, too. 1284 01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:32,117 I mean, this is a much more dangerous country. Murder rates are much higher in 1285 01:15:32,200 --> 01:15:35,517 large part because there's so much There are so many guns. 1286 01:15:35,600 --> 01:15:38,437 >> Well, let me give you an interesting number. There are more people that die 1287 01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:41,917 in Europe from heat deaths than gun than people that die from gun deaths in 1288 01:15:42,000 --> 01:15:47,397 America. Why aren't you uh writing an article about air conditioning? 1289 01:15:47,480 --> 01:15:49,637 >> Well, we've done several on air conditioning, and we had on our cover 1290 01:15:49,720 --> 01:15:54,557 last week um a whole a whole long piece about, you know, why the 1291 01:15:54,640 --> 01:15:56,277 >> Pro-regulation? >> Yeah, we're very pro-regulation. 1292 01:15:56,360 --> 01:15:57,997 >> Okay, good. Well, good. >> Very pro-regulation. You should read us. 1293 01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:00,357 Absolutely. I'm I I think I I think you 1294 01:16:00,440 --> 01:16:04,357 have a a a view of The Economist that 1295 01:16:04,440 --> 01:16:07,757 is not entirely accurate. So, I will 1296 01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:11,797 You come look at England, start reading The Economist, and I will um 1297 01:16:11,880 --> 01:16:18,837 you know, stand corrected on my criticism of you in this area. 1298 01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:20,277 >> The There There are 1299 01:16:20,360 --> 01:16:23,197 There are many parts of Britain um 1300 01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:27,397 and Europe which are not a 1301 01:16:27,480 --> 01:16:30,317 safe. You You You can't just walk around. 1302 01:16:30,400 --> 01:16:32,397 >> But there are far more in this country. 1303 01:16:32,480 --> 01:16:34,997 Far more. >> No, I don't think so. 1304 01:16:35,080 --> 01:16:37,357 >> All right, let's go and get my fact-checkers to check then. 1305 01:16:37,440 --> 01:16:39,237 >> Yeah, I don't I don't think that's true. 1306 01:16:39,320 --> 01:16:43,997 Um >> Let's move on from this because uh I think I've got a sense of why you're 1307 01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:46,997 doing what you're doing. >> The point is not that that that the 1308 01:16:47,080 --> 01:16:50,037 question is not is that is is America perfect? Question is 1309 01:16:50,120 --> 01:16:52,717 does Europe have a serious and growing problem? 1310 01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:54,157 >> is which is which is more dangerous. 1311 01:16:54,240 --> 01:16:57,397 That's where we started this. >> Europe has a serious and growing problem. 1312 01:16:57,480 --> 01:17:01,077 I'm I'm I'm not going to say that the United States has no 1313 01:17:01,160 --> 01:17:05,477 problems. Of course it does. Um but 1314 01:17:05,560 --> 01:17:08,557 you know, we we should all try to to address these issues. 1315 01:17:08,640 --> 01:17:11,477 >> We can agree on that. We should all try to address the problems. My point was 1316 01:17:11,560 --> 01:17:14,637 simply that I think you exaggerate the scale of Europe's problem and that 1317 01:17:14,720 --> 01:17:18,997 >> I think you people are asleep at the switch and do not realize the magnitude 1318 01:17:19,080 --> 01:17:20,837 of the issue. 1319 01:17:20,920 --> 01:17:23,317 >> I also think that your interventions, 1320 01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:28,357 however well-intentioned they may be, risk making Europe's problem a lot worse. 1321 01:17:28,440 --> 01:17:32,437 >> How? >> Because you are putting your support behind people who are 1322 01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:36,997 proto-authoritarians, who are not trying simply to you know, 1323 01:17:37,080 --> 01:17:38,997 make sure there is better integration of 1324 01:17:39,080 --> 01:17:41,197 Muslims or to to secure the borders, but 1325 01:17:41,280 --> 01:17:46,517 who have very clear fascist tendencies and you will cause huge divisions within 1326 01:17:46,600 --> 01:17:48,517 Europe. >> I think what you're saying is total 1327 01:17:48,600 --> 01:17:54,117 fiction. Um and really I I'm simply saying that there needs to be 1328 01:17:54,200 --> 01:17:57,477 there needs to that Europe has to have secure borders. 1329 01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:00,437 >> Okay. >> and so not let in vast numbers of people 1330 01:18:00,520 --> 01:18:03,997 who with views that are antithetical to 1331 01:18:04,080 --> 01:18:08,437 the accepted views in in Europe and and where they will where they will not be 1332 01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:13,277 some level of uh safe cultural integration. This is simply common sense. 1333 01:18:13,360 --> 01:18:15,997 >> If all you are saying is Europe should have secure borders, I completely agree 1334 01:18:16,080 --> 01:18:20,557 with you. Then then I have misunderstood what your 1335 01:18:20,640 --> 01:18:22,357 interventions have been on social media 1336 01:18:22,440 --> 01:18:27,877 cuz that is not what the view I have not what I would conclude having seen what 1337 01:18:27,960 --> 01:18:30,237 the people you are supporting and the things you're doing. But if that's your 1338 01:18:30,320 --> 01:18:33,437 goal, I share your goal that Europe should have secure borders. I think 1339 01:18:33,520 --> 01:18:36,557 that's perfectly agreeable. That gets me to a question. 1340 01:18:36,640 --> 01:18:40,277 >> And let me let me explain what what the fundamental forcing function here is 1341 01:18:40,360 --> 01:18:43,517 uh for why the borders are not secure, which is 1342 01:18:43,600 --> 01:18:48,317 uh When you have a welfare state that 1343 01:18:48,400 --> 01:18:52,277 provides substantial benefits uh to anyone who 1344 01:18:52,360 --> 01:18:56,317 comes there, um you create a very powerful economic 1345 01:18:56,400 --> 01:18:59,797 forcing function for anyone who is below that standard of 1346 01:18:59,880 --> 01:19:02,517 living to come to Europe. 1347 01:19:02,600 --> 01:19:08,517 Um it is it is a an obvious powerful driving force. 1348 01:19:08,600 --> 01:19:11,717 Um and um people will come there if if 1349 01:19:11,800 --> 01:19:16,877 their standard of living is uh from what they get in Europe is above 1350 01:19:16,960 --> 01:19:18,717 where they are elsewhere in the world. 1351 01:19:18,800 --> 01:19:21,597 It's very basic. >> agree with that. I don't I don't disagree. 1352 01:19:21,680 --> 01:19:24,597 >> very basic incentive structure. Um 1353 01:19:24,680 --> 01:19:27,877 >> Economic conditions, economic 1354 01:19:27,960 --> 01:19:30,757 influences determine a lot of migration. 1355 01:19:30,840 --> 01:19:34,277 I think asylum is a separate issue, but I think you I think you're absolutely 1356 01:19:34,360 --> 01:19:38,077 right. There are there are um pressures for migration. However, there are other 1357 01:19:38,160 --> 01:19:40,437 things that you haven't focused on, which is migration brings a lot of 1358 01:19:40,520 --> 01:19:43,797 benefits. And it also particularly does so in a continent like Europe, which is 1359 01:19:43,880 --> 01:19:46,677 a rapidly aging continent. So, we can 1360 01:19:46,760 --> 01:19:51,037 agree that completely uncontrolled borders are a bad idea. 1361 01:19:51,120 --> 01:19:56,277 But, I am I think Europe benefits from having 1362 01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:58,357 immigration, controlled immigration. It brings 1363 01:19:58,440 --> 01:20:00,637 >> Yes, I I I'm in favor of immigration. 1364 01:20:00,720 --> 01:20:03,317 Obviously, I'd be hypocritical if I wasn't since I am an immigrant to the 1365 01:20:03,400 --> 01:20:06,437 United States. Um I'm in favor of immigration if the 1366 01:20:06,520 --> 01:20:10,877 person immigrating um is going to be a productive member of society, 1367 01:20:10,960 --> 01:20:14,877 um if they're going to be honest, and if they're not going to mistreat people in 1368 01:20:14,960 --> 01:20:17,837 that country they're going to. 1369 01:20:17,920 --> 01:20:19,117 >> I can agree on all of those. 1370 01:20:19,200 --> 01:20:21,757 >> Yes. >> But, I think Europe does better on that 1371 01:20:21,840 --> 01:20:24,997 than you give it credit for. That's I think where we disagree. But, let's move 1372 01:20:25,080 --> 01:20:28,957 on. Tell me what do you think people get most wrong about you? 1373 01:20:29,040 --> 01:20:33,237 >> Well, I mean, you got a you just got a whole bunch of things wrong about me. 1374 01:20:33,320 --> 01:20:38,200 Pretty much everything in the last Just rewind the last 20 minutes is all wrong. 1375 01:20:38,560 --> 01:20:42,317 >> So I got we got I got wrong [laughter] your your 1376 01:20:42,400 --> 01:20:44,317 >> Let's not be repetitive here. 1377 01:20:44,400 --> 01:20:47,437 >> Okay. So So that political side of you people get most wrong. 1378 01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:49,917 >> Yeah, my political views are very are 1379 01:20:50,000 --> 01:20:52,757 centrist. They're not 1380 01:20:52,840 --> 01:20:55,477 far right. And frankly calling it far 1381 01:20:55,560 --> 01:20:59,197 right I think is an insult uh 1382 01:20:59,280 --> 01:21:03,237 to to history, an insult to many peoples, 1383 01:21:03,320 --> 01:21:04,517 and it is 1384 01:21:04,600 --> 01:21:07,917 an outrageous falsehood. Um 1385 01:21:08,000 --> 01:21:11,997 It's It's completely absurd. I I literally have stated my position, which 1386 01:21:12,080 --> 01:21:15,077 is that And And I've been very clear about this, which is that there need to 1387 01:21:15,160 --> 01:21:19,557 be secure borders, that um If If there's If there's an influx of 1388 01:21:19,640 --> 01:21:21,277 immigrants, they they they they need to 1389 01:21:21,360 --> 01:21:24,997 be people who will agree that the with 1390 01:21:25,080 --> 01:21:29,237 with with Western ideals, with Western values. And if they don't, and if And if 1391 01:21:29,320 --> 01:21:31,637 there's a long-term uh 1392 01:21:31,720 --> 01:21:34,717 growth of people who do not or or in 1393 01:21:34,800 --> 01:21:36,757 some cases are adamantly opposed to 1394 01:21:36,840 --> 01:21:39,277 Western values, you are setting yourself 1395 01:21:39,360 --> 01:21:42,277 up for civil war. This is obvious. 1396 01:21:42,360 --> 01:21:45,397 A child can see this. So So But this is This is not a 1397 01:21:45,480 --> 01:21:48,157 right-wing view. I'm simply stating reality. 1398 01:21:48,240 --> 01:21:52,797 >> Well, I think we can both agree that evidence will be able to decide which of 1399 01:21:52,880 --> 01:21:56,157 us is more or less right. And we will find evidence for both of our views in 1400 01:21:56,240 --> 01:21:58,597 different parts of Europe. The question is what the overall is. 1401 01:21:58,680 --> 01:22:00,237 >> I'm very good at predicting the future. 1402 01:22:00,320 --> 01:22:01,677 I'm not perfect, but I'm very good at 1403 01:22:01,760 --> 01:22:03,677 predicting the future. Uh my batting 1404 01:22:03,760 --> 01:22:07,797 average is is very high for a human. Um 1405 01:22:07,880 --> 01:22:09,757 But this this does have somewhat of of a 1406 01:22:09,840 --> 01:22:12,957 Cassandra effect, where where people 1407 01:22:13,040 --> 01:22:19,840 don't believe that what I'm saying is likely to be true um because 1408 01:22:20,360 --> 01:22:24,837 you know, I I I can see into the future with a higher bet not perfectly, but 1409 01:22:24,920 --> 01:22:28,837 with a higher probability of success than most people. 1410 01:22:28,920 --> 01:22:32,237 So, and including things that people believe to be 1411 01:22:32,320 --> 01:22:34,077 in some cases counterintuitive. 1412 01:22:34,160 --> 01:22:37,517 Um and uh again, I'm not saying I'm always 1413 01:22:37,600 --> 01:22:42,397 right. I certainly am not. But but my batting average is very good. 1414 01:22:42,480 --> 01:22:46,597 Um But but this this this does have, like I 1415 01:22:46,680 --> 01:22:50,477 said, a Cassandra effect where people don't realize that what I'm saying will 1416 01:22:50,560 --> 01:22:54,157 come to pass. Um 1417 01:22:54,240 --> 01:22:58,277 Maybe not exactly in the timing that I thought, but it will come to pass. 1418 01:22:58,360 --> 01:23:04,397 Um and uh Yeah. 1419 01:23:04,480 --> 01:23:08,560 The history will write the verdict. 1420 01:23:08,680 --> 01:23:11,317 But I think you will see that 1421 01:23:11,400 --> 01:23:13,637 very little of what I've said 1422 01:23:13,720 --> 01:23:15,637 um is inaccurate. 1423 01:23:15,720 --> 01:23:22,320 Um and a supermajority of what I've said 1424 01:23:22,560 --> 01:23:24,997 is very accurate and will come to pass. 1425 01:23:25,080 --> 01:23:27,237 Unless there are there's some change in direction. 1426 01:23:27,320 --> 01:23:28,917 >> Do you have higher confidence level in 1427 01:23:29,000 --> 01:23:33,597 your expectations of the future for AI, 1428 01:23:33,680 --> 01:23:35,957 the first part of our conversation, or 1429 01:23:36,040 --> 01:23:39,357 the latter part, the political part? 1430 01:23:39,440 --> 01:23:42,600 >> Um the 1431 01:23:43,040 --> 01:23:46,557 I mean, AI is digital superintelligence 1432 01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:49,997 is called the singularity, like a black hole, because 1433 01:23:50,080 --> 01:23:53,557 you don't know what's going to happen after that. It's and it sort of sucks in 1434 01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:56,517 everything. So, I think 1435 01:23:56,600 --> 01:23:58,477 really 1436 01:23:58,560 --> 01:24:03,720 in terms of the the really big macro effects here, 1437 01:24:04,280 --> 01:24:08,520 AI and robots will really dominate everything. 1438 01:24:09,400 --> 01:24:14,757 So, on on a on a time scale that is less than 10 years. 1439 01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:17,437 >> Which probably renders this other stuff that we've been talking about less 1440 01:24:17,520 --> 01:24:21,957 important and less relevant. >> The the AI 1441 01:24:22,040 --> 01:24:27,920 AI robotics revolution will happen 1442 01:24:29,200 --> 01:24:32,357 sooner than it will it will happen sooner than civil 1443 01:24:32,440 --> 01:24:36,317 war in in in in Britain. I would say civil war in Britain is 1444 01:24:36,400 --> 01:24:40,157 probably 20 years away. Um 1445 01:24:40,240 --> 01:24:44,877 and the AI robot singularity 1446 01:24:44,960 --> 01:24:47,797 is 10 years away. >> Well, hopefully these benign all 1447 01:24:47,880 --> 01:24:51,317 powerful AIs will prevent such outcomes. 1448 01:24:51,400 --> 01:24:54,477 >> They probably will. >> Eamonn I don't agree with everything you say, 1449 01:24:54,560 --> 01:24:56,837 but it's always absolutely [music] fascinating to talk to you. Thank you 1450 01:24:56,920 --> 01:24:59,557 very much indeed. >> Well, you're welcome. I'm not boring. 1451 01:24:59,640 --> 01:25:02,760 >> You're definitely not boring.