# Dario Amodei on White Collar Jobs *Mike Evans AI Disruption Keynote Speaker* ยท https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvK03dPM6ho ## Summary In this short interview, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warns that AI, having advanced from a smart high school student to a smart college student level in two years, will soon augment and then replace entry-level white-collar jobs in fields like finance, consulting and tech. He expects big effects within one to five years and says CEOs discuss this privately while the public and legislators remain unaware. He argues the AI race can't be stopped but can be steered, pointing to Anthropic's economic index as a first step, and suggests worker education and possibly taxing AI companies as mitigations. ## Key points - Dario Amodei says AI has gone from a smart high school student level two years ago to a smart college student level today. - He worries entry-level white-collar jobs in finance, consulting, tech and similar fields will be augmented and then replaced by AI. - He would not be surprised to see big effects on entry-level jobs within one to five years. - He says AI CEOs and other CEOs discuss this privately, but the message hasn't reached the public or legislators. - He believes the AI bus can't be stopped, with six or seven US companies plus China in the race, but it may be steered. - Anthropic has released an economic index to track the rate of AI's effects on work. - Suggested mitigations include educating workers to adapt faster and possibly taxing AI companies to level the economic playing field. - He notes AI is broader, deeper and moving faster than previous technological changes. ## Notes ### AI Progress and Its Promise - Dario Amodei has worked on AI for 10 years and observes rapid progress: two years ago it was at a smart high school student level, now a smart college student level and beyond. - He sees positives: AI has the skills needed to help cure diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's and provide cheaper energy. ### Concern for Entry-Level White-Collar Jobs - The same skills (summarizing documents, brainstorming, financial reports) make him worry that entry-level jobs in finance, consulting, tech and many other areas will first be augmented, then replaced. - He warns of a possible serious employment crisis as the pipeline of early-stage white-collar work contracts and dries up. - Timeline: hard to predict, but he would not be surprised to see big effects within one to five years. ### Speaking Up Publicly - AI CEOs and other CEOs discuss this in private, but the message hasn't reached ordinary people or legislators, so he chose to speak on the record. - He believes this can be prevented but action is needed now. ### Can't Stop the Bus, But Can Steer It - Six or seven US companies work on AI; even if Anthropic stopped, others would continue, and China would compete. - Anthropic has released an economic index to measure the rate of these effects. - Eventually we must go beyond measuring to action, building AI that augments rather than replaces, though that isn't a long-term solution either. ### Mitigations - AI is broader, deeper and faster than past technological changes. - Mitigation one: educate people to use AI and help workers adapt faster. - Mitigation two: government may need to level the economic playing field, possibly by taxing AI companies like Anthropic. - He says it's not his place to decide which government actions are correct, but people need to take this seriously now. ## Transcript [00:02] So, just to back up a bit, I've been working on AI for for 10 years and probably the thing I've noticed most about it is is how fast it's making progress. 2 years ago, it was at the level of a smart high school student. Now, it's probably the level of a smart college student and reaching beyond that. And on one hand, I think there's a number of very positive things that are going to happen. I used to be a biologist. I think AI has exactly the kind of skills that are needed to cure important diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's, to provide cheaper energy, many positive things. But exactly those same kind of skills, things like summarizing a document, brainstorming, putting together a financial report, [00:42] makes me worry a lot that entry-level jobs in areas like finance, consulting, tech, many many other areas like that, entry-level white-collar work, I worry that those things are going to be first augmented but before long replaced by AI systems and that we we may indeed it's hard to predict the future, but we may indeed have a have a serious employment crisis on our hands as the pipeline for for these early-stage white-collar work starts to starts to contract and dry up. What's the timeline here? Yeah, so it's very hard to predict these things given how fast you know, given how fast AI is making progress. But I would I would not be surprised if somewhere between one and five years we started to see big effects here. You [01:32] know, I've heard a number of people talk about this in private, AI CEOs talk about this in private, CEOs of other companies talk about this in private. And I I really felt that you know, the message that this is happening hasn't been getting out to to ordinary people, hasn't been getting out to our legislators, our congress people either. And so I felt I needed to speak up on the record. I do think that this is something we can prevent this, but we need to act now. I don't think we can stop the AI bus. You know, there are there are six or seven companies just in the US working in this working in this area. I just run one of them. Even if our company stopped doing what it was doing today, all the other [02:14] companies would would continue. Even if all six companies started, then China would beat us. I think that's a big and important threat. So, we can't stop the bus, but I do think we may have an opportunity to steer it. And and I think you know, we need to get congress people, legislators, the public to to think about this now. One of the first steps we're taking is just measuring the effects. Anthropic has put out something that we call our economic index and using the economic index, we try and track the rate at which these things are happening. You know, at some point we have to go beyond measuring this to actually taking action, trying to build our AI systems in a way that augments rather than replaces. But that won't be [02:54] a long-term solution either. We need to think about what what the government is going to do. And you know, there's a wide range of actions that that the government the government could take. And you know, it's it's not not my place to decide which of those are which of those are correct. But but I think the first step is people need to think about this and start taking it very seriously. Yeah, and you're talking about AI possibly wiping out all entry-level white-collar jobs and spiking unemployment to 10 to 20%. So, dive into the mitigation of this a little bit more. How could we mitigate the worst possible scenario here? Yeah, so it's hard to know the exact numbers. I mean, you know, I don't have [03:32] a crystal ball. I can't I can't predict the future. But what I will say is I think what AI can do, you know, there have been these technological changes in the past, but I think what's different about AI is it's broader, it's deeper, and it's moving faster than than previous such technologies. And so in terms of mitigations, you know, I think I think one is just educating people in order in order to you in order to use AI. There will always be people who are who are who are using AI and helping our workers to adapt faster. I think I think is an important move. A second move is that we may want we may want government to you know, to to to kind of to kind of find a way to level the economic playing [04:12] field. And you know, this this may be a controversial proposal, but you know, something like taxing AI companies like us. We we may need to get to things that are actually >> message coming from you who runs an AI company. But you're doing a public service announcement for all of us in terms of this future concern. Dario, thank you so much for joining us. I'm sure