WEBVTT

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Let's say the AI, let's say for the sake
of argument that it that it will be a

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third industrial revolution.
Obviously, the second industrial

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revolution from 1870 to 1900 or so,
I think it tripled the living standards in

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the US. But what have we learned from
prior leaps in human progress and what

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lessons should we apply today? And what
mistakes should we avoid? You didn't you

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you're not too concerned about mistakes,
but are there lessons or are there

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mistakes to avoid? How how are you how
are you thinking about this based on

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history? Yeah, so look, the big thing
is for a very long time we had a model or

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an ethos or an ethic of of industrial
progress. It started with like you know,

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basically once upon a time it was for
for the greater glory of God it was

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to discover the secrets of the universe
and nature as a way to to glorify God,

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but then that that turned into what
became known as natural philosophy which

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turned into science. And then
the the enlightenment hit and

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then science became technology.

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That became industrialization and then
you know, we had about a 250-year run or

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something from basically like steam
power through basically the 1970s

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where we said, "Wow, this is great.
Like we can build all these new things. We

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can do electric you know, we can
electrify. We can have you know,

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lighting everywhere." You know, we can
have you know, antibiotics. We can have

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you know, computers. We can have cars.

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You know, we we can we can build all
these amazing things. By the way, we can

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build weapons, right? We can build like
you know, guns and we can have like you

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know, increasingly powerful tanks
and aircraft and and so [snorts] forth.

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And and we can do all these things,
you know, good and bad or you could say

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maybe civilian and military or you know,
sort of pacifistic or or potentially

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violent. But we we have we have all
these things that that we can do and we

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should do these things. Like we should
build these things. And and by doing

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that, you know, and and certainly in
in aggregate overwhelmingly we we we can

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improve the world and that that created
the civilization that we live in today.

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You know, I think basically things took
a bit of a left turn in the 70s with

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what was a concept invented by the
German Greens at the time called the

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precautionary principle. And that sort
of you know, kind of corresponded to the

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rise of a lot of the kind of defining
ethical ideas of our period

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you know, which basically basically
advocated a much more cautious stance.

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Um And and that's very kind of an an
evocative idea right now. Number one,

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cuz it just seems so obvious
to people in our modern world that if a

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technologist is going to release a new
technology, the burden should be on the

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technologist to prove that the
technology is not harmful, and that's

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what you keep hearing about about AI.

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Um, you know, the observation that I
make is the German Greens invented that

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concept in the 1970s to stop nuclear
power. Um, and I think, you know, that

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the consequences of stopping nuclear
power 50 years later, you know, it's

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just it was just like
a catastrophic mistake.

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Um, you know, geopolitically, it's
directly connected to Russia's invasion

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of Ukraine. Europe is effectively
funding Russia to invade Ukraine cuz

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they keep, you know, buying oil from them,
which they wouldn't need to buy if

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they were running all nuclear. And then,
of course, carbon emissions. Nuclear is

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carbon, you know, zero carbon. Um,
and of course, the alternative to nuclear

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and to carbon, um, you know, oil is is
is coal. And so, you know, emissions in

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Europe are are right now spiking through
the roof because they're bringing all

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these coal plants online. Uh, and so,
anyway, like I would argue in the last

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50 years, we've we've we've played
out this experiment with the so-called

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precautionary principle. It did not work
well uh for the technology it was invented

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for. I don't think it makes a lot
of sense for most of the new technologies.

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There's now an attempt to apply that
that that that ethos or that rule for

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AI, which I think would be another
catastrophic mistake. And as as we sit

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here today, I think it it uh it's uh
the future hangs in the balance because

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there's a lot of people who
are pushing for that right now.

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>> And in your essay, to jump to this,
I assume everyone's read it. You know,

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it's interesting to me, my my mind goes
to productivity first. My mind goes to

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the fact that we haven't had
productivity growth, and this is very

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bad for everyone, especially poor people,
over the last over the last few

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decades. This could actually make
productivity growth go up. You actually

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didn't start on productivity growth.
You started on the fact that we all get

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personalized coaches and education
and all these other things. But was this

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partially a rhetorical tactic to appeal
to people, or do you do you actually

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think productivity growth is not
the most important thing? How how how are

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you thinking about this? Well,
productivity growth is the most

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important economic thing, right? Um,
productivity growth is how technology

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expresses itself in the economy.

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Um, productivity growth is the source
of effectively all economic growth.

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And so therefore technology is source
of practically all economic growth and

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that's been the case for hundreds
of years. Like that that that just is that

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that kind of is what it is. And the the
nature of the technology is obviously

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changed over time but you know,
fundamentally if you just have the same

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resources and the same people and you
don't have new ways of doing things

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which is what technology is,
then you have stagnation. If you have

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technology you have
the potential for growth.

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So it's the most important economic thing.
It's therefore the most important

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thing for material progress right in
the world, right? So if you just want to

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make people materially better off, you
know, this is the thing that you focus on.

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But the mental health
might not be helped by this.

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Well, the thing this is the thing this
is the thing. So this is kind of what we

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learned in the last 100 150 years,
right? It's like just material progress

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is apparently not sufficient, right?

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Like it's actually really funny cuz it's
like the the Marxists were like super

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focused on material progress. Like their
whole view of the world and of history

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and of evolution and how things change
was based on material progress. And then

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the conventional justification
for classical liberalism or for capitalism

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has been, you know, progress in material
welfare. And of course what we all

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experience day-to-day is progress in
material welfare. And when your kid gets

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sick, you don't really want to have a,
you know, some sort of involved

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conversation about ethics or morals
or whatever. What you want to have is like

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a state-of-the-art hospital nearby with
all the best technology you can possibly

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get. And you know, doctors and nurses
who are incredibly well incentivized and

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compensated to be able to to
take care of your kid. So So

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I think you're right. Like it is the
actual most important thing. It's just

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it it it in our world today we don't just
that alone does not seem to win arguments.

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>> [laughter] >> And and by
the way and in fairness not

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just that it doesn't address the totality
of the human condition. And so

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I think it's also important to to to
address kind of higher level issues and

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how humans experience life
that's not just material.

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>> There's a couple ways to take that.
So first of all tell us a little bit more

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like what are like what are the most
important changes in our life that are

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not material? Like what what do you I
mean other than mental health? Like what

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what are what are the things
that actually actually change here?

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Well, yeah. So look the big one I'll
start [clears throat] with the really

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big one and this this is you know,
there's a long running debate around

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around this in the history of technology
industrialization but I think that this

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this is the following point applies here,
which is like what kind of life,

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you know, should a human being live,
right? Um and like and to be clear, like

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I'm not like a UBI, I'm the opposite of
a UBI person. Like I'm not a UBI person.

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I I'm not a communist.
Um I think it's a bad idea to pay people

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to not work. Um I think we're running
an experiment in this country right now to

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pay a lot of people not to work and it,
you know, it's sort of a big

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catastrophic mistake. Um and so like I
I I I'm definitely not that. Hav- Having

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said that, you know, there there is a
fundamental question, which is how what

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what should the human experience be?
How should people live?

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Um and in partic- and again,
this is a classic kind of argument for

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industrialization,
um which is like the the the the

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baseline there is I don't think people
should have to live lives of drudgery,

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right? Like I don't believe people
should have to, you know, 300 years ago

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the conversation would have been
agricultural technologies and I would

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have said I don't think people should
live lives as as subsistence farmers,

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you know, 150 to 100 years ago we would
have said I don't think people should

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live life just as factory workers.
Like we should create new kinds of

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white-collar jobs. Um you know,
50 years I would have said

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people shouldn't be just like stuck
in an office doing paperwork all day long,

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they should use computers, right? To do
the to do the paperwork instead. Um and

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then and then today what I would say is
look, most most of the drudgery of life,

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most of the things and you know, like
everybody knows everybody you can, you

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know, you know it when you see it,
right? It's when you show up and it's

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like, okay, there's the form and there's
the thing and there's the, you know, you

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open up your email
and there's the 200 emails.

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>> shouldn't self-service be building a
few of these bridges? Isn't that good for

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them to get a little like hands-on?

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Should they be using AI for all of it?

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Yeah, maybe yeah, maybe at some point
they should learn how to do it by hand.

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Um you know, and look, I'm I I have
an 8-year-old and he is getting taught how

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to like add numbers by hand.
Um and so yeah, he actually he has a

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he's a he's he's actually learning
Mandarin. Um and uh so his uh Mandarin

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teacher also has taught
him how to use an abacus.

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Um and so you know >> [laughter] >>
in the worst-case scenario, right, of an

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EMP, you know, nuking everything,
he'll be able to at least add up numbers.

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Um so um you know, may- yeah, look,
people should get trained and like people

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should have skills and we could we could
talk about that, but like should you go

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through life as a human being doing
things that machines can do for you? I

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think generally speaking
the answer to that is no.

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You should go through life doing the
things that uniquely people can do. And

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I And to be clear, I think there are many,
many, many things that people can do.

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I think people explore. I think people
create. I think people help other people.

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And I I My aspiration
would be that increased

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technology and in particular AI should
basically actually make it possible to

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be more human. You should be able
to spend more of your life doing things

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that are human in in their nature
and human in the sense of fulfillment as

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opposed to doing the things
that the machines can do for you.

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And I And I look, this this is one
of those things where like if this really

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works, this this really holds
out that that kind of opportunity.