WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.477 That is extremely interesting. It's interesting because there's all this 00:00:02.560 --> 00:00:06.397 concern that young people jobs are not going to be there for them. AIs are 00:00:06.480 --> 00:00:09.117 replacing them. On the flip side, there's what you're describing here. It 00:00:09.200 --> 00:00:13.077 feels like people coming into learning today are going to be move so fast and 00:00:13.160 --> 00:00:17.197 learn so much more in in where where do you sit on this divide of like young 00:00:17.280 --> 00:00:19.997 people are in big trouble or they're actually going to be the ones winning in 00:00:20.080 --> 00:00:22.077 the end? >> Yeah, so the job the job substitution 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:24.677 job loss thing is just it's very reductive. It's it's I think it's an 00:00:24.760 --> 00:00:27.357 overly simplistic model. And again, it goes back to what I said at the very 00:00:27.440 --> 00:00:31.357 beginning, which is we've actually been in a regime for 50 years of very slow 00:00:31.440 --> 00:00:34.757 technological change in the economy. And so, you know, and again, like I said, 00:00:34.840 --> 00:00:37.837 it's like at a at a half the rate of the of the previous era and then a third the 00:00:37.920 --> 00:00:40.757 rate of like 100 years ago. And so, we're we're we're we're we're coming out 00:00:40.840 --> 00:00:43.437 of this kind of phase where we've had like almost no technological progress in 00:00:43.520 --> 00:00:47.237 the economy. We've had remarkably little job churn as a result of that relative 00:00:47.320 --> 00:00:52.037 to to any historical period. And so, even if AI like ticks up even if AI 00:00:52.120 --> 00:00:54.677 triples productivity growth in the economy, which would like be a massively 00:00:54.760 --> 00:00:58.477 big deal, take us back to the same level of job churn that was happening between 00:00:58.560 --> 00:01:02.917 1870 and 1930. And if you go back and you read accounts of 1870 to 1930, 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:05.877 people just thought the world was awash with opportunity, right? At that rate of 00:01:05.960 --> 00:01:09.597 technological transformation, kids were able to like develop new careers into 00:01:09.680 --> 00:01:13.717 new areas of of the economy building new kinds of products and services. I mean, 00:01:13.800 --> 00:01:16.677 you know, a huge part of our everything in our modern world today was kind of 00:01:16.760 --> 00:01:20.557 invented and and I'm proliferate a kind of during that period. And so, even if 00:01:20.640 --> 00:01:23.517 AI like triples the pace of economic change in the economy, it's going to 00:01:23.600 --> 00:01:26.117 just translate to it like a much higher rate of economic growth. It's going to 00:01:26.200 --> 00:01:29.717 translate translate to a much higher higher rate of job growth. And you know, 00:01:29.800 --> 00:01:32.717 there there'll be some level of like task level and job level substitution 00:01:32.800 --> 00:01:36.717 will take place, but that will be swamped by the macro effects of economic 00:01:36.800 --> 00:01:40.037 growth and innovation. We'll happen in that then corresponding to that, there 00:01:40.120 --> 00:01:42.477 will be, you know, there will there will be hiring booms, you know, I quite 00:01:42.560 --> 00:01:46.277 honestly I think all over the place. And then again, go back to the 00:01:46.360 --> 00:01:49.237 other thing, which is like this is all happening in the face of declining 00:01:49.320 --> 00:01:52.957 population growth and and and increasingly population shrinkage. And 00:01:53.040 --> 00:01:56.597 so, human workers in many many many countries over the next, you know, 10, 00:01:56.680 --> 00:02:00.557 20, 30 years are going to be at more and more of a premium literally because 00:02:00.640 --> 00:02:03.637 you're going to have shrinking population levels. And so, if you sort 00:02:03.720 --> 00:02:07.077 of combine in a country like the US or any country in Europe, if you combine 00:02:07.160 --> 00:02:10.517 declining population with less immigration, you're 00:02:10.600 --> 00:02:13.197 the the remaining human workers are going to be at a premium, not at a 00:02:13.280 --> 00:02:17.117 discount. Uh and so, I think I think that combination of kind of faster 00:02:17.200 --> 00:02:20.237 productivity growth, faster economic growth, and then slower population 00:02:20.320 --> 00:02:23.517 growth and less immigration uh actually means there's going to be much less of 00:02:23.600 --> 00:02:26.637 this kind of dystopian, you know, no jobs thing. I I just think it's probably 00:02:26.720 --> 00:02:29.317 totally off base. >> That is extremely interesting. So, what 00:02:29.400 --> 00:02:33.317 I'm hearing is you're not super worried about job loss. Is the key here that the 00:02:33.400 --> 00:02:36.757 timing kind of just works out? This population decrease, you know, like all 00:02:36.840 --> 00:02:41.757 these kind of have to line up for there not to be this massive job loss with AI? 00:02:41.840 --> 00:02:44.917 >> Yeah, well, look, if we didn't have AI, we'd be in a panic right now about 00:02:45.000 --> 00:02:45.877 what's going to happen to the economy. 00:02:45.960 --> 00:02:48.997 Because what we what we'd be staring at is a future of depopulation and like 00:02:49.080 --> 00:02:51.597 depopulation without new technology would just mean that the economy 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:54.677 shrinks, right? So, so it would mean that the economy kind of itself kind of 00:02:54.760 --> 00:02:57.717 shrinks over time, you know, the opportunity diminishes, there are no new 00:02:57.800 --> 00:03:00.957 there there are no new jobs, there are no new fields, there's no new there's no 00:03:01.040 --> 00:03:04.677 new source of consumer demand for spending on things. Uh and so, you you 00:03:04.760 --> 00:03:07.077 would you would you would be very worried about going into a period of 00:03:07.160 --> 00:03:10.357 like severe decline and stagnation. Uh and you know, 00:03:10.440 --> 00:03:13.237 you know, essentially you'd be looking at these like very dystopian scenarios 00:03:13.320 --> 00:03:16.917 of like an economy kind of self-euthanizing itself uh over time. Uh 00:03:17.000 --> 00:03:19.597 and and you it's you'd be very worried about like the opposite of what 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:22.597 everybody, you know, thinks that they're worried about. The only reason we're not 00:03:22.680 --> 00:03:25.197 worried about that is because we now know that we have the technology that 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:27.597 can substitute for the lack of population growth and then, you know, 00:03:27.680 --> 00:03:31.637 also for the for the lack of immigration that's likely. And so, we you know, it it 00:03:31.720 --> 00:03:34.397 I would say the timing has worked out miraculously well in the sense of we're 00:03:34.480 --> 00:03:37.357 going to have AI and robots precisely when we actually need them to keep the 00:03:37.440 --> 00:03:40.317 economy from actually shrinking. Uh and and I just think like that that's just 00:03:40.400 --> 00:03:44.880 like a fun a fundamentally a fundamentally good news story.