1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,477 That is extremely interesting. It's interesting because there's all this 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:06,397 concern that young people jobs are not going to be there for them. AIs are 3 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:09,117 replacing them. On the flip side, there's what you're describing here. It 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,077 feels like people coming into learning today are going to be move so fast and 5 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:17,197 learn so much more in in where where do you sit on this divide of like young 6 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:19,997 people are in big trouble or they're actually going to be the ones winning in 7 00:00:20,080 --> 00:00:22,077 the end? >> Yeah, so the job the job substitution 8 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,677 job loss thing is just it's very reductive. It's it's I think it's an 9 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,357 overly simplistic model. And again, it goes back to what I said at the very 10 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,357 beginning, which is we've actually been in a regime for 50 years of very slow 11 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,757 technological change in the economy. And so, you know, and again, like I said, 12 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,837 it's like at a at a half the rate of the of the previous era and then a third the 13 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,757 rate of like 100 years ago. And so, we're we're we're we're we're coming out 14 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,437 of this kind of phase where we've had like almost no technological progress in 15 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:47,237 the economy. We've had remarkably little job churn as a result of that relative 16 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:52,037 to to any historical period. And so, even if AI like ticks up even if AI 17 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,677 triples productivity growth in the economy, which would like be a massively 18 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,477 big deal, take us back to the same level of job churn that was happening between 19 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:02,917 1870 and 1930. And if you go back and you read accounts of 1870 to 1930, 20 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,877 people just thought the world was awash with opportunity, right? At that rate of 21 00:01:05,960 --> 00:01:09,597 technological transformation, kids were able to like develop new careers into 22 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,717 new areas of of the economy building new kinds of products and services. I mean, 23 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,677 you know, a huge part of our everything in our modern world today was kind of 24 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,557 invented and and I'm proliferate a kind of during that period. And so, even if 25 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,517 AI like triples the pace of economic change in the economy, it's going to 26 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,117 just translate to it like a much higher rate of economic growth. It's going to 27 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,717 translate translate to a much higher higher rate of job growth. And you know, 28 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,717 there there'll be some level of like task level and job level substitution 29 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,717 will take place, but that will be swamped by the macro effects of economic 30 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,037 growth and innovation. We'll happen in that then corresponding to that, there 31 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,477 will be, you know, there will there will be hiring booms, you know, I quite 32 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,277 honestly I think all over the place. And then again, go back to the 33 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,237 other thing, which is like this is all happening in the face of declining 34 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,957 population growth and and and increasingly population shrinkage. And 35 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,597 so, human workers in many many many countries over the next, you know, 10, 36 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,557 20, 30 years are going to be at more and more of a premium literally because 37 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,637 you're going to have shrinking population levels. And so, if you sort 38 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,077 of combine in a country like the US or any country in Europe, if you combine 39 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,517 declining population with less immigration, you're 40 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,197 the the remaining human workers are going to be at a premium, not at a 41 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:17,117 discount. Uh and so, I think I think that combination of kind of faster 42 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,237 productivity growth, faster economic growth, and then slower population 43 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,517 growth and less immigration uh actually means there's going to be much less of 44 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,637 this kind of dystopian, you know, no jobs thing. I I just think it's probably 45 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,317 totally off base. >> That is extremely interesting. So, what 46 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:33,317 I'm hearing is you're not super worried about job loss. Is the key here that the 47 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,757 timing kind of just works out? This population decrease, you know, like all 48 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:41,757 these kind of have to line up for there not to be this massive job loss with AI? 49 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,917 >> Yeah, well, look, if we didn't have AI, we'd be in a panic right now about 50 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:45,877 what's going to happen to the economy. 51 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,997 Because what we what we'd be staring at is a future of depopulation and like 52 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,597 depopulation without new technology would just mean that the economy 53 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,677 shrinks, right? So, so it would mean that the economy kind of itself kind of 54 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,717 shrinks over time, you know, the opportunity diminishes, there are no new 55 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,957 there there are no new jobs, there are no new fields, there's no new there's no 56 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,677 new source of consumer demand for spending on things. Uh and so, you you 57 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,077 would you would you would be very worried about going into a period of 58 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,357 like severe decline and stagnation. Uh and you know, 59 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,237 you know, essentially you'd be looking at these like very dystopian scenarios 60 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,917 of like an economy kind of self-euthanizing itself uh over time. Uh 61 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,597 and and you it's you'd be very worried about like the opposite of what 62 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,597 everybody, you know, thinks that they're worried about. The only reason we're not 63 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,197 worried about that is because we now know that we have the technology that 64 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,597 can substitute for the lack of population growth and then, you know, 65 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,637 also for the for the lack of immigration that's likely. And so, we you know, it it 66 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,397 I would say the timing has worked out miraculously well in the sense of we're 67 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,357 going to have AI and robots precisely when we actually need them to keep the 68 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,317 economy from actually shrinking. Uh and and I just think like that that's just 69 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,880 like a fun a fundamentally a fundamentally good news story.