The thing that I want to just double
click on before we play this uh general
AI clip is that he talks about how just
more compute is not going to get us
there. And I think that that's become
less of a commonly held view in the
let's get the newest Nvidia chips and
get 20,000 of them in one building and
then push really hard. Meta in
particular, XAI in particular, have been
investing a lot in building up their
compute power as a way to create more
intelligent systems. So, it's funny to
hear him here say that that's not going
to get us all the way to the mountain
top.
>> What a a helpful thing. That made me
feel less crazy because I feel like
sometimes there is that assumption that
we don't need to like code things
anymore. We just need to put enough
chips in a room and then they will
figure it out for us. And to me, that's
always I'm not a programmer, folks. So,
like maybe that's how it'll work. But
that always felt very counterintuitive
to me. like every other piece of
software ever, we a human had to like
figure out how it was going to work. And
now we're suddenly coming with this idea
that well, if you just put enough
compute power together, it'll take care
of all of that for us. And I've never
really bought that. So, it was it was
nice to hear a technologist agree with
me in that way, like, oh, I'm not crazy.
This is a big assumption for us to make.
>> It'd be fun to hear what he has to think
about this now, but here's Alexander
Wang.
>> You believe in general AI that we'll hit
that at some point? AI that is just
generally smart can do anything a human
can.
>> I believe in some sense. I believe in
the sense that like for most
technological things that humans can
conceive of that aren't physically
impossible if humans survive they'll
happen at some point. Like I think
humans are like infinitely creative,
infinitely ingenious, etc. I think it's
very overblown the timelines that people
are talking about general AI happening.
There's a lot of things that are wrong
about like the common arguments. One of
which is people say that if Moore's law
keeps going then we'll have all this
exponential compute. it's only a matter
of time before we produce these general
AI morals laws is going to be dead and
then quantum computing is very far away
despite recent press releases etc. I
think that leg of the argument is not
actually that strong and then I also
think it's not even clear that if you
have infinite compute you'll be able to
produce general AI. I think that's very
unclear. So infinite compute helps
narrow AI because you're doing a number
of scenarios and playing out every
scenario in go the the game many more
permutations than poker many more
permutations than chess which is a
finite data set. So yeah, more compute
power on those things certainly gets you
quicker ability or even just throwing
people into a random video game like
open AI is sure
>> definitely
>> but general AI taking somebody who
mastered chess and then saying master go
and then master impressionist painting
it's different
>> it's very different one of the arguments
goes that once you have enough compute
you can create artificial life by
basically simulating evolution one of
the more vogue arguments
>> you have so much compute power that you
can say start with this tiny piece of
bacteria, whatever, then grow it and
grow and grow an entire evolutionary
system to the point at which there is a
human-like species and then grow that
humanlike species in whatever number of
scenarios with a big brain into whatever
comes after us.
>> Even if you just grow the humanlike
species that's as intelligent, then
you're that's kind of good.
>> That would be general AI as well, right?
Because general AI would normally most
people would define general AI as not
even being smarter than us, but being as
smart. But somebody would have to code
that and program that and build the
systems to do that. It's not just going
to magically happen, right? It's very
unclear if that's even possible.
>> That's an argument.
>> I honestly think that's the most
plausible argument. It's very much so
science fiction in the sense that we're
not close to being able to even validate
the hypothesis. So, I don't believe in
general AI anytime soon.
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