WEBVTT

00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:01.917
The following is a conversation with

00:00:02.000 --> 00:00:04.797
Mark Andre, his second time on the

00:00:04.880 --> 00:00:07.517
podcast. Mark is a visionary tech leader

00:00:07.600 --> 00:00:12.397
and investor who fundamentally shaped
the development of the internet and the

00:00:12.480 --> 00:00:14.317
tech industry in general over the past

00:00:14.400 --> 00:00:17.357
30 years. He is the co-creator of

00:00:17.440 --> 00:00:22.317
Mosaic, the first widely used web
browser, co-founder of Netscape,

00:00:22.400 --> 00:00:24.317
co-founder of the legendary Silicon

00:00:24.400 --> 00:00:26.877
Valley venture capital firm Andre

00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:29.357
Horowitz, and is one of the most

00:00:29.440 --> 00:00:31.997
influential voices in the tech world,

00:00:32.080 --> 00:00:36.877
including at the intersection
of technology and politics.

00:00:36.960 --> 00:00:41.037
And now, a quick few second mention
of each sponsor. Check them out in the

00:00:41.120 --> 00:00:45.037
description. It's the best way
to support this podcast. We got Encord for

00:00:45.120 --> 00:00:47.277
unifying your ML stack, GitHub for

00:00:47.360 --> 00:00:49.837
programming, notion for team projects

00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:52.797
and collaboration, Shopify for merch,

00:00:52.880 --> 00:00:58.317
and Element for hydration. Choose wisely,
my friends. Also, if you want to

00:00:58.400 --> 00:01:02.477
get in touch with me for whatever
reason, go to lexfreeman.com/cont.

00:01:02.560 --> 00:01:06.077
And now on to the full ad reads.
No ads in the middle. I try to make this

00:01:06.160 --> 00:01:08.477
interesting, but if you skip them,

00:01:08.560 --> 00:01:13.437
please still check out the sponsors.
I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too.

00:01:13.520 --> 00:01:15.117
This episode is brought to you by

00:01:15.200 --> 00:01:17.837
Encord, a platform that provides data

00:01:17.920 --> 00:01:20.877
focused AI tooling for data annotation,

00:01:20.960 --> 00:01:23.517
curation, and management, and for model

00:01:23.600 --> 00:01:26.477
evaluation once you train up the model

00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:29.757
on the data that you curate. In this

00:01:29.840 --> 00:01:31.997
conversation with Mark Andre, we

00:01:32.080 --> 00:01:34.957
actually discuss what he calls kind of

00:01:35.040 --> 00:01:37.997
like the trillion dollar questions. And

00:01:38.080 --> 00:01:41.197
one of them for AI is how effective will

00:01:41.280 --> 00:01:43.517
synthetic data be? It really isn't an

00:01:43.600 --> 00:01:47.677
open question. What piece, what fraction

00:01:47.760 --> 00:01:50.237
of the intelligence of future models

00:01:50.320 --> 00:01:52.397
will be based on training on synthetic

00:01:52.480 --> 00:01:55.757
data at the top AI labs. I'm hearing a

00:01:55.840 --> 00:01:57.837
lot of optimism. As far as I can tell,

00:01:57.920 --> 00:01:59.997
that optimism is not currently, at least

00:02:00.080 --> 00:02:03.917
in the general case, based on any real

00:02:04.000 --> 00:02:06.317
evidence. So, I do think synthetic data

00:02:06.400 --> 00:02:10.077
will play a part, but how big a part?

00:02:10.160 --> 00:02:13.757
There's still going to be some curation
from humans. There's still going to need

00:02:13.840 --> 00:02:16.797
to be a human in the loop. I think the

00:02:16.880 --> 00:02:19.197
real question is how do you effectively

00:02:19.280 --> 00:02:22.957
integrate the human in the loop so that

00:02:23.040 --> 00:02:27.037
the synthetic data sort of 99 synthetic

00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:29.917
1% human

00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:34.317
[sighs] that combination
can be most effective.

00:02:34.400 --> 00:02:37.997
That's a real question and uh companies
like Encord are trying to solve that

00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:40.237
very problem. First of all, they want to

00:02:40.320 --> 00:02:42.077
provide the tooling for the annotation

00:02:42.160 --> 00:02:45.437
for the actual um human collaboration

00:02:45.520 --> 00:02:47.597
but also asking and answering the

00:02:47.680 --> 00:02:50.397
research question of like how do you

00:02:50.480 --> 00:02:54.957
pull it all off and make the resulting
model more intelligent for very specific

00:02:55.040 --> 00:02:58.957
applications and for the general
applications. Yeah. So, Encore does a

00:02:59.040 --> 00:03:00.717
really good job on the tooling side. Go

00:03:00.800 --> 00:03:03.597
try them out to curate, annotate, and

00:03:03.680 --> 00:03:07.917
manage your AI data at encord.com/lex.

00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:11.400
That's encord.com/lex.

00:03:12.080 --> 00:03:14.877
This episode is brought to you by GitHub

00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:17.837
and GitHub Copilot. If you don't know

00:03:17.920 --> 00:03:20.797
what that is, my friends, you're in for

00:03:20.880 --> 00:03:23.997
a joyous, beautiful surprise.

00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:26.477
I think a lot of people that program

00:03:26.560 --> 00:03:30.557
regularly know and love GitHub and know

00:03:30.640 --> 00:03:35.517
and love Copilot. It's the OG AI

00:03:35.600 --> 00:03:38.397
programming assistant and uh it's the

00:03:38.480 --> 00:03:40.637
one that's really trying to win this

00:03:40.720 --> 00:03:43.837
very competitive space. It is not easy.

00:03:43.920 --> 00:03:46.717
If you're somebody that uses VS Code,

00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:51.277
obviously, well, maybe not obviously,
but uh you can use GitHub copilot in VS

00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:53.597
Code, but you can use it also in other

00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:59.037
IDE. I'm going to be honest with you,
it's a very competitive space. I'm

00:03:59.120 --> 00:04:00.477
trying all the different tools in the

00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:05.677
space, and I really love how much GitHub

00:04:05.760 --> 00:04:11.277
and GitHub Copilot want to win in this
competitive space. So, I'm excitedly

00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:14.477
sort of sitting back and just eating
popcorn like that uh Michael Jackson

00:04:14.560 --> 00:04:16.797
meme [snorts] [laughter]

00:04:16.880 --> 00:04:19.757
and just enjoying the hell out of it.

00:04:19.840 --> 00:04:21.597
And uh like I said, I'm going to be

00:04:21.680 --> 00:04:23.677
doing a bunch of programming

00:04:23.760 --> 00:04:27.997
episodes including with Prime and he I

00:04:28.080 --> 00:04:29.597
think has a lovehate relationship with

00:04:29.680 --> 00:04:33.517
AI and with uh AI agents and

00:04:33.600 --> 00:04:37.757
with the role of AI in the programming
experience and he's really at the

00:04:37.840 --> 00:04:40.237
forefront of people that are playing

00:04:40.320 --> 00:04:43.197
with all these languages with all these

00:04:43.280 --> 00:04:45.277
different applications with all the

00:04:45.360 --> 00:04:48.877
different use cases of code and he as a

00:04:48.960 --> 00:04:51.597
U of Mim user, so he's going to be

00:04:51.680 --> 00:04:53.517
skeptical in general of new technology.

00:04:53.600 --> 00:04:57.917
He's a kagon sitting on a porch
on rocking chairs, screaming at the kids,

00:04:58.000 --> 00:05:00.077
throwing stuff at them. But at the same

00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:02.557
time, he's able to play with the kids as

00:05:02.640 --> 00:05:05.917
well. So I am more on the kids side with

00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:08.237
a childlike joy, enjoy the new

00:05:08.320 --> 00:05:12.077
technology. For me, basically everything

00:05:12.160 --> 00:05:15.677
I do programming wise

00:05:15.760 --> 00:05:18.397
has the possibility of AI either

00:05:18.480 --> 00:05:23.357
reviewing it or assisting it.
It's constantly in the loop. Even if I'm

00:05:23.440 --> 00:05:25.277
writing stuff from scratch, I'm always

00:05:25.360 --> 00:05:29.357
just kind of one second away from asking

00:05:29.440 --> 00:05:33.677
a question about the code or asking it
to generate or rewrite a certain line or

00:05:33.760 --> 00:05:38.157
to add a few more lines, all that kind
of stuff. So, I'm constantly constantly

00:05:38.240 --> 00:05:40.557
using it. If you're learning to code or

00:05:40.640 --> 00:05:43.917
if you're an advanced programmer,

00:05:44.000 --> 00:05:48.077
it is really important that you get
better and better at using AI as an

00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:50.237
assistant programmer. Get started with

00:05:50.320 --> 00:05:55.677
GitHub Copilot for free
today at gh.io/copilot.

00:05:55.760 --> 00:05:57.197
This episode is also brought to you by

00:05:57.280 --> 00:05:59.597
Notion, a note takingaking and team

00:05:59.680 --> 00:06:02.797
collaboration tool that Mark Andre on

00:06:02.880 --> 00:06:07.277
this very episode sings a lot of praises
to. I believe he sings, was it on mic or

00:06:07.360 --> 00:06:08.797
off mic? I don't remember. But anyway,

00:06:08.880 --> 00:06:12.317
he loves it. It's one of the tools, one

00:06:12.400 --> 00:06:14.797
of the companies, one of the ecosystems

00:06:14.880 --> 00:06:17.677
that integrate AI really effectively for

00:06:17.760 --> 00:06:21.117
team applications. When you have

00:06:21.200 --> 00:06:23.837
uh let's see, like docs and wikis and

00:06:23.920 --> 00:06:25.997
projects and all that kind of stuff. You

00:06:26.080 --> 00:06:29.117
can have the AI load all that in and

00:06:29.200 --> 00:06:33.037
answer questions based on that. You can
connect a bunch of apps like you could

00:06:33.120 --> 00:06:35.197
connect Slack, you can connect Google

00:06:35.280 --> 00:06:38.237
Drive. I think in the context we were

00:06:38.320 --> 00:06:41.357
talking about something like notion for

00:06:41.440 --> 00:06:44.957
email for like Gmail. I don't know if

00:06:45.040 --> 00:06:47.517
Notion integrates email yet. I mean

00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:52.477
they're just like this machine that's
constantly increasing the productivity

00:06:52.560 --> 00:06:55.597
of every aspect of your life. So I'm
sure they're going to start integrating

00:06:55.680 --> 00:06:58.077
more and more apps. I use it for Slack

00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:02.957
and Google Drive, but I use it primarily
at the individual level for note-taking

00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:07.917
and even at the individual level. Just
incredible what Notion AI can do. Try it

00:07:08.000 --> 00:07:09.837
out for free when you go to

00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:11.837
notion.com/lex.

00:07:11.920 --> 00:07:15.117
That's all lowercase notion.com/ lex to

00:07:15.200 --> 00:07:19.597
try the power of notion AI today. This

00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:23.277
episode is also brought to you by Shopify,
a platform designed for anyone

00:07:23.360 --> 00:07:24.957
to sell anywhere with a great looking

00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:27.997
online store. Very few people embody the

00:07:28.080 --> 00:07:32.317
uh the joy and the power of uh

00:07:32.400 --> 00:07:33.917
capitalism

00:07:34.000 --> 00:07:37.357
than Mark Andre. I believe Mark and Toby

00:07:37.440 --> 00:07:41.117
are friends. I was at a thing where Mark

00:07:41.200 --> 00:07:45.357
and Toby were both there and we were
chatting and they were very friendly. So

00:07:45.440 --> 00:07:48.557
I think they're friends and I got
to hang out with Toby and is again

00:07:48.640 --> 00:07:53.357
incredible person. I say it again
and again. It's almost becoming funny that

00:07:53.440 --> 00:07:54.797
uh eventually we'll do a podcast.

00:07:54.880 --> 00:07:58.797
[snorts] [laughter] I don't
know why we haven't done a

00:07:58.880 --> 00:08:00.957
podcast. There's a few people in my life

00:08:01.040 --> 00:08:04.637
where uh it's like like Jeffrey Hinton

00:08:04.720 --> 00:08:06.477
is one of those people. It's like we've

00:08:06.560 --> 00:08:10.077
agreed to do a podcast for so long

00:08:10.160 --> 00:08:14.077
and we've just been kind
of lazy about it. [gasps]

00:08:14.160 --> 00:08:17.997
And uh Toby is the same. Anyway, he's
the co of Shopify. I don't even know if

00:08:18.080 --> 00:08:20.797
he knows that Shopify sponsors this

00:08:20.880 --> 00:08:25.117
podcast. It doesn't matter. It goes
without saying. It should be obvious to

00:08:25.200 --> 00:08:29.437
everybody that one doesn't affect
the other. I am very fortunate to have way

00:08:29.520 --> 00:08:31.597
more sponsors than uh we can possibly

00:08:31.680 --> 00:08:33.917
fit. So, I can pick whoever the hell I

00:08:34.000 --> 00:08:37.517
want. And uh whatever guest I choose

00:08:37.600 --> 00:08:40.397
will never have anything to do with the

00:08:40.480 --> 00:08:42.237
companies that sponsor the podcast.

00:08:42.320 --> 00:08:47.517
There's no there's not even like
a tinge of influence. In fact, if there's

00:08:47.600 --> 00:08:50.717
anything, it'll be the opposite direction.
But I also try to avoid that,

00:08:50.800 --> 00:08:55.757
you know. Uh it's possible I talked
to the CEO of GitHub, for example, on this

00:08:55.840 --> 00:08:59.117
podcast, and GitHub sponsors this podcast.
It's possible I talked to the

00:08:59.200 --> 00:09:02.077
CEO of Shopify, Toby, and uh Shopify

00:09:02.160 --> 00:09:04.477
sponsors this podcast. One doesn't

00:09:04.560 --> 00:09:07.757
affect the other. And obviously, again,

00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:09.357
goes without saying, but let me say it.

00:09:09.440 --> 00:09:12.317
make it explicit that nobody can buy

00:09:12.400 --> 00:09:14.797
their way onto the podcast, whether

00:09:14.880 --> 00:09:16.797
through sponsorships

00:09:16.880 --> 00:09:20.237
or buying me dinner or whatever. I don't

00:09:20.320 --> 00:09:23.037
know. This this just it's impossible.

00:09:23.120 --> 00:09:26.317
And most likely, if that's attempted,

00:09:26.400 --> 00:09:28.637
it's going to backfire. So, I think

00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:31.437
people intuitively know not to attempt

00:09:31.520 --> 00:09:34.557
cuz it would really piss me off. Anyway,

00:09:34.640 --> 00:09:37.677
this is a uh detour. We're supposed to

00:09:37.760 --> 00:09:40.077
talk about Shopify. I have a Shopify

00:09:40.160 --> 00:09:42.157
store, luxury.com/store, that sells

00:09:42.240 --> 00:09:47.117
t-shirts, but you can sell uh more
sophisticated stuff, make a lot of

00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:52.157
money, and participate in this beautiful
machinery of capitalism. Sign up for a

00:09:52.240 --> 00:09:56.557
$1 per month trial period
at shopify.com/llex. That's all lowercase.

00:09:56.640 --> 00:10:01.677
Go to shopify.com/llex to take your
business to the next level today. This

00:10:01.760 --> 00:10:06.237
episode is also brought to you
by Element, my daily zero sugar and

00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:08.557
delicious electrolyte mix of which I

00:10:08.640 --> 00:10:13.597
consume very ridiculously large amounts.

00:10:13.680 --> 00:10:15.677
You know, salt used to be currency in

00:10:15.760 --> 00:10:18.397
the ancient world. How silly are humans

00:10:18.480 --> 00:10:22.957
or not silly? how sort of surprising

00:10:23.040 --> 00:10:26.077
the things we converge on as uh being

00:10:26.160 --> 00:10:29.357
the store of value. Just value in

00:10:29.440 --> 00:10:30.797
general. The kind of things we assign

00:10:30.880 --> 00:10:33.677
value to together. We just kind of all

00:10:33.760 --> 00:10:38.237
agree that this item, this material,

00:10:38.320 --> 00:10:41.757
this idea, this building is extremely

00:10:41.840 --> 00:10:45.597
valuable. And then we compete over that

00:10:45.680 --> 00:10:49.037
resource or that idea or that building

00:10:49.120 --> 00:10:53.997
and we fight and sometimes there is uh
wars and sometimes there is complete

00:10:54.080 --> 00:10:55.917
destruction and the rise and fall of

00:10:56.000 --> 00:10:59.677
empires all over some resource.

00:10:59.760 --> 00:11:04.237
What a funny, strange little world.

00:11:04.320 --> 00:11:09.597
Mostly harmless as uh Hitchhiker's Guide

00:11:09.680 --> 00:11:13.837
to the Galaxy summarizes humans. For some
reason, instead of that book, I was

00:11:13.920 --> 00:11:16.077
going to say Catcher in the Rye. In my

00:11:16.160 --> 00:11:19.197
exhausted brain, the books kind of all

00:11:19.280 --> 00:11:24.237
morphed together. But Catcher and the Ry
is a really damn good book. All the

00:11:24.320 --> 00:11:26.077
classics I return to often the simple

00:11:26.160 --> 00:11:28.477
books are just even like the first book

00:11:28.560 --> 00:11:32.397
I read in English trivial book trivial

00:11:32.480 --> 00:11:36.077
book called the giver it's like I return

00:11:36.160 --> 00:11:40.877
to it in its simplicity maybe it's um

00:11:40.960 --> 00:11:44.637
maybe has sentimental value maybe that's
what it is but just the simplicity of

00:11:44.720 --> 00:11:48.477
words animal farm I've read I don't know
how many times probably over 50 times I

00:11:48.560 --> 00:11:51.677
return to it over and over
and over the simplicity

00:11:51.760 --> 00:11:57.037
the poetry of that simplicity.
It's something that just resonates with my

00:11:57.120 --> 00:11:58.637
brain. Maybe it's a peculiar kind of

00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:02.557
brain. It is a peculiar kind of brain.

00:12:02.640 --> 00:12:05.117
And I have to thank you for being

00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:08.397
patient with this peculiar kind of

00:12:08.480 --> 00:12:12.157
brain. Get a sample pack for free with

00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:14.157
uh any purchase of whatever the thing I

00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:20.360
was talking about, which I think
is element. Try it at drinklement.com/lex.

00:12:20.880 --> 00:12:24.077
This is a Lex Freedman podcast.
To support it, please check out our

00:12:24.160 --> 00:12:26.717
sponsors in the description. And now,

00:12:26.800 --> 00:12:31.960
dear friends, here's Mark and

00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:48.797
All right, let's start with optimism.

00:12:48.880 --> 00:12:52.557
If you were to imagine the best possible

00:12:52.640 --> 00:12:57.277
one to two years, 2025, 26 for tech, for

00:12:57.360 --> 00:13:00.717
big tech and small tech, what would it be?
What would it look like? Lay out

00:13:00.800 --> 00:13:05.437
your vision for the best possible
scenario trajectory for America.

00:13:05.520 --> 00:13:07.277
>> The roaring 20s. >> The roaring 20s.

00:13:07.360 --> 00:13:10.877
>> The roaring 20s. I mean, look, a couple
things. It is remarkable over the last

00:13:10.960 --> 00:13:14.557
several years with all of the issues,
including, you know, every not just

00:13:14.640 --> 00:13:17.357
everything in politics, but also co and
every other thing that's happened. It's

00:13:17.440 --> 00:13:19.437
really amazing. And the United States
just kept growing. If you just look at

00:13:19.520 --> 00:13:22.317
economic growth charts, the US just kept
growing. And very significantly, many

00:13:22.400 --> 00:13:25.517
other countries stopped growing.
So Canada stopped growing, the UK has

00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:28.317
stopped growing, Germany has stopped
growing. And you know, some of those

00:13:28.400 --> 00:13:31.517
countries may be actually going
backwards at this point. And there's a

00:13:31.600 --> 00:13:34.397
very long [laughter] discussion to be
had about what's wrong with those

00:13:34.480 --> 00:13:36.877
countries. And there's of course
plenty of things that are wrong with our

00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:39.677
country. But um the US is just flatout

00:13:39.760 --> 00:13:42.157
primed for growth. Um and I think that's

00:13:42.240 --> 00:13:46.957
a consequence of many factors. um you
know some of which were are lucky and

00:13:47.040 --> 00:13:49.917
some of which through hard work and so
the lucky part is just you know number

00:13:50.000 --> 00:13:52.477
one you know we just have like
incredible physical security by being

00:13:52.560 --> 00:13:56.557
our own continent um you know we have
incredible natural resources right

00:13:56.640 --> 00:13:58.877
there's there's there's this running
joke now that like whenever it looks

00:13:58.960 --> 00:14:01.917
like the US is going to run out of some
like rare earth material you know some

00:14:02.000 --> 00:14:05.197
farmer in North Dakota like kicks over
a hay bale and finds like a $2 trillion

00:14:05.280 --> 00:14:07.757
deposit >> right I mean
we're just like blessed you

00:14:07.840 --> 00:14:12.077
know with with with geography and with
natural resources um energy you know we

00:14:12.160 --> 00:14:15.677
can be energy independent anytime
we want Um, this last administration

00:14:15.760 --> 00:14:18.237
decided they didn't want to be. They
wanted to turn off American energy. This

00:14:18.320 --> 00:14:21.597
new administration has declared that
they have a goal of turning it on in a

00:14:21.680 --> 00:14:25.357
dramatic way. There's no question we can
be energy independent. We can be a giant

00:14:25.440 --> 00:14:29.037
net energy exporter. It's purely
a question of choice. Um, and I think that

00:14:29.120 --> 00:14:32.557
the new administration is going to do
that. Um, and so we and oh, and then I

00:14:32.640 --> 00:14:35.677
would say two other things. One is um,
you know, we we are the beneficiaries

00:14:35.760 --> 00:14:36.877
and you know, you're an example of this.

00:14:36.960 --> 00:14:40.557
We're a beneficiary. we're
the beneficiary of, you know, 50, 100, 200

00:14:40.640 --> 00:14:43.517
years of like the basically most
aggressive driven, smartest people in

00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:45.997
the world, most capable people, you know,
moving to the US and raising their

00:14:46.080 --> 00:14:50.077
kids here. Um, and so we just have, you
know, by far the most dynamic, you know,

00:14:50.160 --> 00:14:53.117
we're by far the most dynamic
population, most aggressive um, you

00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:56.317
know, we're the most aggressive set
of characters in certainly in in any

00:14:56.400 --> 00:15:00.317
western country and have been for a long
time and certainly are today. Um, and

00:15:00.400 --> 00:15:03.277
then finally, I would just say look,
we are overwhelmingly the advanced

00:15:03.360 --> 00:15:06.877
technology leader. um you know we we
have our issues and we have a I would

00:15:06.960 --> 00:15:10.237
say particular issue with manufacturing
which we could talk about but for you

00:15:10.320 --> 00:15:13.917
know anything in software anything in AI
anything in um you know all these you

00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:17.197
know advanced biotech all these advanced
areas of technology like we're we're by

00:15:17.280 --> 00:15:19.997
far the leader again in part because
many of the best scientists and

00:15:20.080 --> 00:15:24.077
engineers in those fields you know you
know come to the US um and so we we we

00:15:24.160 --> 00:15:29.117
just we have all of the preconditions
for a uh for just a monster um boom you

00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:31.917
know I could see economic growth going
way up I could see productivity growth

00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:35.597
going way up rate of technology adoption
going way up and then we could we can do

00:15:35.680 --> 00:15:39.517
a global tour if you like, but like
basically all of our competitors have

00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:42.317
like profound issues and you know we
could kind of go through them one by

00:15:42.400 --> 00:15:46.797
one, but the the competitive landscape
just is it's like it's it's remarkable

00:15:46.880 --> 00:15:50.237
how u how how much better
positioned we are for growth.

00:15:50.320 --> 00:15:52.157
>> What about the humans
themselves? Almost

00:15:52.240 --> 00:15:55.997
philosophical questions. You know,
I travel across the world and there's

00:15:56.080 --> 00:16:00.957
something about the American spirit,
the entrepreneurial spirit that's uniquely

00:16:01.040 --> 00:16:02.557
intense in America. I don't know what

00:16:02.640 --> 00:16:06.317
that is. Uh I I've talked to uh Saga who

00:16:06.400 --> 00:16:08.797
claims it might be the Scots-Irish blood

00:16:08.880 --> 00:16:11.517
that runs through uh the history of

00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:16.317
America. What is it? You at the heart
of Silicon Valley. Is there something in

00:16:16.400 --> 00:16:19.597
the water? Why is there
this entrepreneurial spirit?

00:16:19.680 --> 00:16:21.917
>> Yeah. So, is this a family
show or am I allowed to swear

00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:23.997
>> you you can say
whatever the [__] you want?

00:16:24.080 --> 00:16:27.837
>> Okay. So, the TV the great TV show
Succession. The show of course that

00:16:27.920 --> 00:16:30.877
which you were intended to root for
exactly zero of the characters. Yes. The

00:16:30.960 --> 00:16:34.077
best line from Succession was in the
final episode of the first season when

00:16:34.160 --> 00:16:38.237
the whole family's over in uh Logan
Royy's ancestral homeland of Scotland

00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:41.437
and they're at this castle, you know,
for some wedding and Logan is just like

00:16:41.520 --> 00:16:43.917
completely miserable after having to,
you know, because he's been in New York

00:16:44.000 --> 00:16:47.677
for 50 years. He's totally miserable
being back in in um in Scotland and he

00:16:47.760 --> 00:16:50.397
gets in some argument with somebody
and he's like, "My" He says finally just

00:16:50.480 --> 00:16:53.437
says, "My god, I cannot wait to get out
of here and go back to America where we

00:16:53.520 --> 00:16:57.280
can [__] without condoms." [laughter]

00:16:58.080 --> 00:16:59.767
>> Uh was that a metaphor or Okay.

00:16:59.850 --> 00:17:02.877
[laughter] Exactly right. And and so no,
but it's exactly the thing and everybody

00:17:02.960 --> 00:17:06.077
instantly knows what that like everybody
watching that instantly starts laughing

00:17:06.160 --> 00:17:08.637
because you know what it means, which
is it's exactly this. I think there's like

00:17:08.720 --> 00:17:09.997
an ethnographic, you know, way of it.

00:17:10.080 --> 00:17:12.477
There's a bunch of books on like all
like you said the Scots-Irish like all

00:17:12.560 --> 00:17:14.637
the different derivations of all
the different ethnic groups that have come

00:17:14.720 --> 00:17:18.637
to the US over the course of the last
400 years, right? But it's been and but

00:17:18.720 --> 00:17:21.037
what we have is this sort
of amalgamation of like, you know, the you

00:17:21.120 --> 00:17:24.077
know the the Northeast, you know,
Yankees who were like super tough and

00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:27.277
hardcore. Yeah. The Scots-Irish are
super aggressive. you know, we've got

00:17:27.360 --> 00:17:29.997
the, you know, the Southerners and the
Texans, uh, you know, and the and, you

00:17:30.080 --> 00:17:32.397
know, the sort of, you know, whole
kind of blended, you know, kind of

00:17:32.480 --> 00:17:35.917
Anglo-Hispanic thing, you know, super
incredibly tough, strong, driven, you

00:17:36.000 --> 00:17:39.917
know, capable characters, you know,
the Texas Rangers. Um, you know, we've got

00:17:40.000 --> 00:17:43.277
the, yeah, we've got the California, you
know, we've got the, you know, the wild,

00:17:43.360 --> 00:17:46.317
we've got the incredibly, you know,
inventive hippies, but we also have the

00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:49.117
hardcore engineers, we've got, you know,
the best, you know, rocket scientists in

00:17:49.200 --> 00:17:52.077
the world, we've got the best, you know,
artists in the world, you know, creative

00:17:52.160 --> 00:17:55.837
professionals, uh, you know, the best
movies. Um and so yeah there there there

00:17:55.920 --> 00:18:00.077
is you know the the the the you know
say all of our problems I think are

00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:03.517
basically you know in my view to some
extent you know attempts to basically

00:18:03.600 --> 00:18:07.197
sand all that off and make everything
basically boring and mediocre. But there

00:18:07.280 --> 00:18:10.237
is something in the national spirit that
basically keeps bouncing back and it and

00:18:10.320 --> 00:18:13.837
and basically what we discover over time
is we we basically just need people to

00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:17.757
stand up at a certain point and say you
know it's time to you it's time to build

00:18:17.840 --> 00:18:21.117
it's time to grow you know it's time
to do things. Um, and so, and there's

00:18:21.200 --> 00:18:23.757
something in the American spirit that
just like right back to life. And I and

00:18:23.840 --> 00:18:26.317
I've seen it before. I actually saw, you
know, I I saw it as a kid here in the in

00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:30.557
the early 80s. Um, you know,
because the the the 70s were like horribly

00:18:30.640 --> 00:18:32.077
depressing, right, in the in in the US.

00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:36.477
Like it was they were a nightmare
on many fronts. And in a lot of ways, the

00:18:36.560 --> 00:18:38.397
last decade to me has felt a lot like

00:18:38.480 --> 00:18:41.917
the 70s, just being mired in misery. Um,

00:18:42.000 --> 00:18:45.517
and just this self-defeating, you know,
negative attitude and everybody's upset

00:18:45.600 --> 00:18:48.717
about everything and, you know, and then
by the way, like energy crisis and

00:18:48.800 --> 00:18:51.517
hostage crisis and foreign wars and just

00:18:51.600 --> 00:18:56.237
demoralization, right? Um, you know, the
low point for in the 70s was, you know,

00:18:56.320 --> 00:18:58.957
Jimmy Carter who just passed away. He
went on TV and he gave this speech known

00:18:59.040 --> 00:19:03.037
as the Malay speech and it was like
the weakest possible trying to like rouse

00:19:03.120 --> 00:19:05.197
people back to a sense of like passion.

00:19:05.280 --> 00:19:08.477
completely failed and you know we had
the you know the hostages in you know

00:19:08.560 --> 00:19:12.317
Iran for I think 440 days and every
night on the nightly news it was you

00:19:12.400 --> 00:19:16.637
know lines around the block energy
crisis depression inflation and then you

00:19:16.720 --> 00:19:19.517
know Reagan came in and you know Reagan
was a very controversial character at

00:19:19.600 --> 00:19:22.397
the time and you know he came
in and he's like yep nope it's morning in

00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:25.677
America and we're the shiny city on the
hill and we're going to do it and he did

00:19:25.760 --> 00:19:28.877
it and we did it and the national spirit
came roaring back and you know roared

00:19:28.960 --> 00:19:32.237
really hard for a full decade and I and I
think that's exactly what I think you

00:19:32.320 --> 00:19:34.157
know we'll see but I think
that's what could happen here

00:19:34.240 --> 00:19:38.317
>> and I just did a super long podcast
on Milton Freriedman with Jennifer Burns

00:19:38.400 --> 00:19:42.557
who's this incredible professor
at Stanford and he was part of the Reagan.

00:19:42.640 --> 00:19:46.317
So some there's a bunch of components
to that. One of which is economic.

00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:48.877
>> Yes. >> And one
of which maybe you can put a

00:19:48.960 --> 00:19:51.997
word on it of not to be romantic or

00:19:52.080 --> 00:19:55.997
anything but freedom uh individual
freedom, economic freedom, political

00:19:56.080 --> 00:19:59.277
freedom and just in general individualism.

00:19:59.360 --> 00:20:02.877
>> Yeah, that's right. Yeah. And as you
know this America has this incredible

00:20:02.960 --> 00:20:06.557
streak of individualism. You know
individualism in America probably peaked

00:20:06.640 --> 00:20:09.997
I think between roughly call it
the end of the civil war 1865 through to

00:20:10.080 --> 00:20:14.237
probably call it 1931 or something.
Um you know and there was this like

00:20:14.320 --> 00:20:16.717
incredible rush. I mean that period
you know we now know that period as the

00:20:16.800 --> 00:20:19.837
second industrial revolution and it's
when the United States basically assumed

00:20:19.920 --> 00:20:22.557
global leadership and basically took
took over technological and economic

00:20:22.640 --> 00:20:26.237
leadership from from England. Um and then
you know that that led to you know

00:20:26.320 --> 00:20:29.037
ultimately then therefore being able
to you know not only industrialize the

00:20:29.120 --> 00:20:32.717
world but also win World War II and then
win the Cold War. Um and yeah you know

00:20:32.800 --> 00:20:36.557
there's a massive industrial you know
massive individualistic streak. Um by

00:20:36.640 --> 00:20:39.197
the way you know Milton Fre Milton
Friedman's old videos are all on

00:20:39.280 --> 00:20:42.237
YouTube. They are every bit
as compelling and inspiring. Yeah.

00:20:42.320 --> 00:20:46.877
>> Um as they uh as they were then um
you know he's this he's a singular figure

00:20:46.960 --> 00:20:50.637
and many of us you know have you know I
never knew him but um he was at actually

00:20:50.720 --> 00:20:54.157
at Stanford for many years at the Hoover
Institution but uh I never met him but I

00:20:54.240 --> 00:20:56.797
know a lot of people who worked with him
and you know that you know he was he was

00:20:56.880 --> 00:21:00.717
a singular figure but his his all all
of his lessons you know live on or fully

00:21:00.800 --> 00:21:04.477
available. Um, but I would also say it's
not just individualism. And this is, you

00:21:04.560 --> 00:21:06.797
know, one of this is one of the big
things that's like playing out in a lot

00:21:06.880 --> 00:21:10.237
of our culture and kind of political
fights right now, which is, you know,

00:21:10.320 --> 00:21:13.677
basically this feeling, you know,
certainly that I have and I share with a

00:21:13.760 --> 00:21:16.397
lot of people, which is it it's
not enough for America to just be an

00:21:16.480 --> 00:21:19.917
economic zone. Um, and it's not enough
for us to just be individuals and it's

00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:22.957
not enough to just have line go up
and it's not enough to just have economic

00:21:23.040 --> 00:21:26.797
success. There are deeper questions
uh at play and and and also, you know,

00:21:26.880 --> 00:21:30.717
there there there's more to a country
uh than just that. and and you know quite

00:21:30.800 --> 00:21:32.317
quite frankly a lot of it is intangible.

00:21:32.400 --> 00:21:36.397
Um a lot of it is you know involves
spirit um and passion and you know like

00:21:36.480 --> 00:21:40.557
I said we we have more of it than
anybody else. Um but um you know we we

00:21:40.640 --> 00:21:43.037
have to choose to want it. The way I
look at it is like all of our problems

00:21:43.120 --> 00:21:46.477
are self-inflicted. Like they're you
know the client is a choice. You know

00:21:46.560 --> 00:21:49.917
all of our problems are basically
demoralization campaigns. You know

00:21:50.000 --> 00:21:52.717
basically people telling us people
in positions of authority telling us that

00:21:52.800 --> 00:21:56.317
we should you know we shouldn't you know
stand out. We shouldn't be adventurous.

00:21:56.400 --> 00:21:59.517
We shouldn't be exciting. We shouldn't
be exploratory. you know, we shouldn't,

00:21:59.600 --> 00:22:01.757
you know, this that and the other thing
and we should feel bad about everything

00:22:01.840 --> 00:22:04.877
that we do. And I think we've lived
through a decade where that's been the

00:22:04.960 --> 00:22:08.237
prevailing theme. And I I think quite
honestly, as of November, I think people

00:22:08.320 --> 00:22:12.077
are done with it. >> If we
could go on a tangent of a

00:22:12.160 --> 00:22:15.677
tangent, since we're talking about
individualism, and that's not all that

00:22:15.760 --> 00:22:19.357
it takes. You've mentioned in the past
the book The Ancient City. Yes.

00:22:19.440 --> 00:22:24.637
>> By if I could only pronounce the name,
French historian Numa Deni Fustel Duno.

00:22:24.720 --> 00:22:26.317
I don't know. >> That was amazing.

00:22:26.400 --> 00:22:27.837
>> Okay. All right. From the 19th century.

00:22:27.920 --> 00:22:30.717
Anyway, you said this is an important
book to understand who we are and where

00:22:30.800 --> 00:22:33.037
we come from. >> So,
what that book does, it's actually

00:22:33.120 --> 00:22:37.747
quite a striking book. Um, so that
book is written by this guy um as a

00:22:37.830 --> 00:22:40.317
[laughter] let let do
the pronunciations, the

00:22:40.400 --> 00:22:41.677
foreign language pronunciations for the

00:22:41.760 --> 00:22:43.997
day. Um, he was a uh professor of

00:22:44.080 --> 00:22:47.677
classics um at uh the Serban in um in uh

00:22:47.760 --> 00:22:51.277
Paris, you know, the top university
uh at um in the in the actually in the

00:22:51.360 --> 00:22:55.597
1860s. though actually right around
after the US civil war and he was a

00:22:55.680 --> 00:22:59.037
soant of a particular kind which is he
and you can see this in the book is he

00:22:59.120 --> 00:23:02.237
had apparently read and you know sort
of absorbed and memorized every possible

00:23:02.320 --> 00:23:06.557
scrap of Greek and and um Roman
literature um and so it's like a walking

00:23:06.640 --> 00:23:09.277
like index on basically Greek and Roman
everything we know about Greek and Roman

00:23:09.360 --> 00:23:12.477
culture and that's significant the reason
this matters is because basically

00:23:12.560 --> 00:23:15.517
none of that has changed right and so
he he he had access to the exact same

00:23:15.600 --> 00:23:18.237
written materials that we have we have
access to and so there you know we we've

00:23:18.320 --> 00:23:20.797
learned nothing and then specifically
what he did is he talked about the

00:23:20.880 --> 00:23:23.677
Greeks and the Romans But specifically
what he did is he went back further. He

00:23:23.760 --> 00:23:26.317
reconstructed the people who came before
the Greeks and the Romans and what their

00:23:26.400 --> 00:23:28.717
life and society was like. And these
were the people who were now known as

00:23:28.800 --> 00:23:31.757
the as the Indo-Europeans. And these were,
you may have heard of these, these

00:23:31.840 --> 00:23:34.317
are the people who came down from the
steps. And so they they they came out of

00:23:34.400 --> 00:23:37.197
what's now like Eastern Europe, like
around sort of the outskirts of what's

00:23:37.280 --> 00:23:40.877
now Russia. Um and then they sort of swept
through uh Europe. They ultimately

00:23:40.960 --> 00:23:44.477
took over all of Europe. By the way, you
know, almost many of the ethnicities in

00:23:44.560 --> 00:23:48.077
the Americas the hundreds of years that
follow, you know, are indo-uropean. And

00:23:48.160 --> 00:23:50.877
so like you know they were this
basically this warrior basically class

00:23:50.960 --> 00:23:54.157
that like came down and swept through
and and um and and you know essentially

00:23:54.240 --> 00:23:56.317
um you know populated much of the world.

00:23:56.400 --> 00:23:59.357
Um and there's a whole interesting saga
there. But what he does and then they

00:23:59.440 --> 00:24:02.557
basically they from there came basically
what we know as the Greeks and the

00:24:02.640 --> 00:24:05.757
Romans were kind of evolutions off
of that. Um and so what he reconstructs is

00:24:05.840 --> 00:24:09.517
sort of what life was like what life was
like at least in the west for people in

00:24:09.600 --> 00:24:13.197
their kind of original social state.
And the the significance of that is is the

00:24:13.280 --> 00:24:16.717
original social state is this is living
in the state of the absolute imperative

00:24:16.800 --> 00:24:20.637
for survival with absolutely no
technology, right? Like no modern

00:24:20.720 --> 00:24:23.837
systems, no nothing, right? You've got
the clothes in your back, you've got

00:24:23.920 --> 00:24:26.717
your, you know, you you've got whatever
you can build with your bare hands,

00:24:26.800 --> 00:24:29.997
right? This is, you know,
predates basically all concepts of of of

00:24:30.080 --> 00:24:31.117
technologies as we understand it today.

00:24:31.200 --> 00:24:34.717
And so these are people under like
maximum levels of physical survival

00:24:34.800 --> 00:24:37.357
pressure. And so what what social
patterns did they evolve to be able to

00:24:37.440 --> 00:24:41.437
do that? And and the social pattern
basically was as follows. um is a is a

00:24:41.520 --> 00:24:43.997
three-part social structure u family um

00:24:44.080 --> 00:24:47.757
uh tribe and city um and um zero concept

00:24:47.840 --> 00:24:51.837
of individual rights um and essentially
no concept of individualism and so you

00:24:51.920 --> 00:24:55.437
were not an individual you were
a member of your family and then a set of

00:24:55.520 --> 00:24:58.637
families would aggregate into a tribe
and then a set of tribes would aggregate

00:24:58.720 --> 00:25:01.837
into a um into a city um and then the

00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:05.917
morality was completely it was actually
what Nichi talks Nichi talks about the

00:25:06.000 --> 00:25:09.037
morality was entirely master morality
not slave morality and so in their

00:25:09.120 --> 00:25:13.117
morality Anything that was strong was good
and anything that was weak was bad.

00:25:13.200 --> 00:25:14.637
And it's very clear why that is, right?

00:25:14.720 --> 00:25:18.477
It's because strong equals good equals
survive. Weak equals bad equals die. And

00:25:18.560 --> 00:25:21.997
that led to what became known later
as the master slave dialectic, which is is

00:25:22.080 --> 00:25:24.557
it more important for you to live
on your feet as a master even at the risk

00:25:24.640 --> 00:25:28.077
of dying? Or are you willing to um you
know live as a slave on your knees in

00:25:28.160 --> 00:25:30.877
order to not die. And this is sort
of the the derivation of that moral

00:25:30.960 --> 00:25:34.157
framework. Christianity later inverted
that moral framework. But it you know

00:25:34.240 --> 00:25:37.917
the the original uh framework lasted
for you know many many thousands of years.

00:25:38.000 --> 00:25:40.557
No concept of individualism. The head
of the family had total life and death

00:25:40.640 --> 00:25:41.997
control over the over over the family.

00:25:42.080 --> 00:25:44.717
The head of the tribe, same thing.
Head of the city, same thing. And then you

00:25:44.800 --> 00:25:47.997
were morally obligated to kill members
of the of the other cities on on

00:25:48.080 --> 00:25:51.117
contact. Right. [laughter] Right.
You were morally required to. Like if you

00:25:51.200 --> 00:25:55.357
didn't do it, you were a bad person.
Um and then the form of the society was

00:25:55.440 --> 00:25:57.837
basically maximum fascism combined with

00:25:57.920 --> 00:26:02.557
maximum communism. Right. And so it was
maximum fascism in the form of this like

00:26:02.640 --> 00:26:05.597
absolute top- down control where the head
of the family, tribe or city could

00:26:05.680 --> 00:26:09.997
kill other members of the community
at any time with no repercussions at all.

00:26:10.080 --> 00:26:14.157
So maximum hierarchy but combined
with maximum communism which is no market

00:26:14.240 --> 00:26:17.357
economy and so everything gets shared,
right? And and sort of the point of

00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:20.317
being in one of these collectives
is that it's a collective and and and you

00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:23.357
know and and people are sharing. And of
course that limited how big they could

00:26:23.440 --> 00:26:26.397
get cuz you know the problem with
communism is it doesn't scale, right? It

00:26:26.480 --> 00:26:28.877
works at the level of a family. It's
much harder to make it work at the level

00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:33.197
of a country. Impossible. Maximum fascism,
maximum communism. And then and

00:26:33.280 --> 00:26:37.677
then it was all intricately uh tied into
their religion. And their their religion

00:26:37.760 --> 00:26:41.997
was uh it was in two parts. It was uh
veneration of ancestors um and it was

00:26:42.080 --> 00:26:45.837
veneration of nature. And the veneration
of ancestors is extremely important

00:26:45.920 --> 00:26:49.037
because it was basically like basically
the ancestors were the people who got

00:26:49.120 --> 00:26:51.757
you to where you were. The ancestors
were the people who had everything to

00:26:51.840 --> 00:26:54.477
teach you, right? And then it
was veneration of nature because of course

00:26:54.560 --> 00:26:57.437
nature is the thing that's trying
to kill you. Um and then you had your

00:26:57.520 --> 00:27:00.557
ancestor every family, tribe or city
had their ancestor gods and then they had

00:27:00.640 --> 00:27:02.077
their um they had their nature gods.

00:27:02.160 --> 00:27:05.917
Okay. So fast forward to today like we
live in a world that is like radically

00:27:06.000 --> 00:27:08.797
different but in and the book takes you
through kind of what happened from that

00:27:08.880 --> 00:27:12.397
through the Greeks and Romans through
to Christianity. And so that but but it's

00:27:12.480 --> 00:27:15.357
very helpful to kind of think in these
terms because the conventional view of

00:27:15.440 --> 00:27:19.997
the progress through time is that we are
you know the cliche is the arc of the un

00:27:20.080 --> 00:27:23.357
moral universe you know bends towards
justice right or so-called wig history

00:27:23.440 --> 00:27:26.477
which is you know that the arc
of progress is positive right and so we we

00:27:26.560 --> 00:27:29.197
you know what you hear all the time
which you're taught in school and

00:27:29.280 --> 00:27:31.837
everything is you know every year
that goes by we get better and better and

00:27:31.920 --> 00:27:34.237
more and more moral and more and more
pure and a better version of of

00:27:34.320 --> 00:27:38.557
ourselves our Indo-European ancestors
would say oh no like you people have

00:27:38.640 --> 00:27:42.637
like fallen to [__] like you people took
took all of the principles of basically

00:27:42.720 --> 00:27:45.677
your civilization and you have diluted
them down to the point where they barely

00:27:45.760 --> 00:27:48.637
even matter, you know, and you're
having, you know, children out of

00:27:48.720 --> 00:27:51.117
wedlock and you're, you know,
you regularly encounter people of other

00:27:51.200 --> 00:27:54.237
cities and you don't try to kill them
and like how crazy is that? And and they

00:27:54.320 --> 00:27:58.397
would basically consider us to be living
like an incredibly diluted version of

00:27:58.480 --> 00:28:02.237
this sort of highly religious,
highly cult-like, right, highly organized,

00:28:02.320 --> 00:28:06.557
highly fascist fascist communist
society. I can't resist noting

00:28:06.640 --> 00:28:09.757
[laughter] that as a consequence
of basically going

00:28:09.840 --> 00:28:11.997
through all the transitions we've
been through going all the way through

00:28:12.080 --> 00:28:15.597
Christianity coming out the other end of
Christianity nature declares God is dead

00:28:15.680 --> 00:28:18.957
we're in a secular society you know
that still has you know tinges of

00:28:19.040 --> 00:28:22.397
Christianity but you know largely prides
itself on no longer being religious in

00:28:22.480 --> 00:28:25.197
that way um you know we being the sort

00:28:25.280 --> 00:28:29.437
of most fully evolved modern secular
you know experts scientists and so forth

00:28:29.520 --> 00:28:33.837
have basically re-evolved or fallen back
on the exact same religious structure uh

00:28:33.920 --> 00:28:37.837
that the Indo-Uropeans had specifically
ancestor worship which is identity

00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:42.717
politics um and nature worship which
is environmentalism. Um and so we have

00:28:42.800 --> 00:28:45.197
actually like worked our way all the way
back to their cult religions without

00:28:45.280 --> 00:28:48.157
realizing it. And and and it just goes
to show that like you know in some ways

00:28:48.240 --> 00:28:52.157
we have fallen far from the far from the
family tree but in in some cases we're

00:28:52.240 --> 00:28:55.037
we're exactly the same.
>> You kind of described this progressive

00:28:55.120 --> 00:29:00.397
idea of wokeism and so
on as uh worshiping ancestors.

00:29:00.480 --> 00:29:03.357
>> Identity politics is worshiping
ancestors, right? It's it's tagging

00:29:03.440 --> 00:29:07.357
newborn infants with either, you know,
benefits or responsibilities or, you

00:29:07.440 --> 00:29:10.477
know, levels of condemnation
based on who their ancestors were.

00:29:10.560 --> 00:29:13.837
>> The Indo-Uropeans would
have recognized it on site.

00:29:13.920 --> 00:29:16.157
We somehow think it's like
supercially progressive.

00:29:16.240 --> 00:29:19.997
>> Yeah. And it is not. >> I mean,
I would say obviously not, you

00:29:20.080 --> 00:29:23.357
know, get get new, which is where I
think you're headed, which is look, like

00:29:23.440 --> 00:29:26.557
is the idea that you can like completely
reinvent society every generation and

00:29:26.640 --> 00:29:29.517
have no regard whatsoever for what came
before you that that seems like a really

00:29:29.600 --> 00:29:32.717
bad idea, right? That's like
the Cambodians with year zero under PP pot

00:29:32.800 --> 00:29:34.237
and you know death you know follows.

00:29:34.320 --> 00:29:36.397
It's obviously the Soviets tried that.

00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:40.797
Um you know the the you know the the
utopian fantasists who think that they

00:29:40.880 --> 00:29:43.357
can just rip up everything that came
before and create something new in the

00:29:43.440 --> 00:29:46.317
human condition and human society have
a very bad history of of causing you know

00:29:46.400 --> 00:29:49.757
enormous destruction. So on the one
hand it's like okay there there is like a

00:29:49.840 --> 00:29:53.197
deeply important role for tradition
and and and the way I think about that is

00:29:53.280 --> 00:29:56.637
it's the process of evolutionary
learning right which is what what

00:29:56.720 --> 00:29:59.997
tradition ought to be is the distilled
wisdom of all and and you know this is

00:30:00.080 --> 00:30:02.397
how the new Europeans thought about
it should be the distilled wisdom of

00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:06.077
everybody who came before you right
all those important and powerful lessons

00:30:06.160 --> 00:30:09.037
learned um and that's that's why I think
it's fascinating to go back and study

00:30:09.120 --> 00:30:11.517
how these people lived is because that's
that's part of the history and you know

00:30:11.600 --> 00:30:14.637
part of the learning that got us
to where we are today having said that

00:30:14.720 --> 00:30:18.077
there are many cultures around the world
that are you mired in tradition to the

00:30:18.160 --> 00:30:21.597
point of not being able to progress.
Um and in fact you might even say globally

00:30:21.680 --> 00:30:24.717
that's the default human condition
which is you know a lot of people are in

00:30:24.800 --> 00:30:28.397
societies in which you know there's like
absolute seniority by age you know kids

00:30:28.480 --> 00:30:31.517
are completely you know like in the US
like for some reason we decided kids are

00:30:31.600 --> 00:30:34.237
in charge of everything right and like
you know they're the trends setters and

00:30:34.320 --> 00:30:36.557
they're allowed to like set all the
agendas and like set settle the politics

00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:39.597
and settle the culture and maybe that's
a little bit crazy but like in a lot of

00:30:39.680 --> 00:30:42.877
other cultures kids have no voice at all
no role at all because it's the old

00:30:42.960 --> 00:30:46.557
people who are in charge of everything
you know they're gerontocracies and it's

00:30:46.640 --> 00:30:49.917
all a bunch of 80-year-olds running
everything which by the Okay, we have a

00:30:50.000 --> 00:30:53.837
little bit of that too, right? Um, and so
I what I would say is like there's a

00:30:53.920 --> 00:30:55.357
down there's there's a real downside.

00:30:55.440 --> 00:30:59.437
You know, full traditionalism
is communitarianism, you know, it's ethnic

00:30:59.520 --> 00:31:03.037
particularism. Um, you know, it's ethnic
chauvinism. It's um, you know, this

00:31:03.120 --> 00:31:07.277
incredible level of of resistance to
change. Um, you know, that's I mean that

00:31:07.360 --> 00:31:09.917
it just doesn't get you anywhere. Like
it it may be good and fine at the level

00:31:10.000 --> 00:31:12.957
of an individual tribe, but as a societ
society living in the modern world, it

00:31:13.040 --> 00:31:15.917
you you can't evolve, you can't you
can't advance, you can't participate in

00:31:16.000 --> 00:31:19.437
all the good things that you know that
that have happened. And so I, you know,

00:31:19.520 --> 00:31:21.997
I think it probably this is one of those
things where extremistness on either

00:31:22.080 --> 00:31:25.757
side is probably a bad idea. Um, and I
but you know, but but this needs to be

00:31:25.840 --> 00:31:29.277
approached in a sophisticated
and nuanced way.

00:31:29.360 --> 00:31:33.437
>> So the beautiful picture
you painted of the roaring 20s,

00:31:33.520 --> 00:31:37.437
how can the Trump administration play
a part in making that future happen?

00:31:37.520 --> 00:31:41.677
>> Yeah. So look, a big part of this is
getting the government boot off the neck

00:31:41.760 --> 00:31:44.797
of the American economy, the American
technology industry, the American

00:31:44.880 --> 00:31:48.237
people. Um, you know, and and again,
this is a replay of what happened in the

00:31:48.320 --> 00:31:51.677
60s and 70s, which is, you know, for what
started out looking like, you know,

00:31:51.760 --> 00:31:55.517
I'm sure good and virtuous purposes,
you know, we we ended up both then and now

00:31:55.600 --> 00:31:57.917
with this, you know, what I what I
describe as sort of a form of soft

00:31:58.000 --> 00:32:00.877
authoritarianism. You know,
the good news is it's not like a military

00:32:00.960 --> 00:32:04.077
dictatorship. It's not like, you know,
you get thrown into Lubian, you know,

00:32:04.160 --> 00:32:06.797
for the most part. It's not coming
at 4 in the morning. You're not getting

00:32:06.880 --> 00:32:09.917
dragged off to a cell. So, it's not
hard authoritarianism, but it is soft

00:32:10.000 --> 00:32:13.597
authoritarianism. And so it's this you
know incredible suppressive blanket of

00:32:13.680 --> 00:32:18.397
regulation rules you know this concept
of a vetocracy right what's required to

00:32:18.480 --> 00:32:21.357
get anything done you know you need
to get 40 people to sign off on anything

00:32:21.440 --> 00:32:24.877
any one of them can veto it is you know
a lot of how our now political system

00:32:24.960 --> 00:32:29.597
works um and then you know just this
general idea of you know progress is bad

00:32:29.680 --> 00:32:33.357
and technology is bad and capitalism
is bad and building businesses is bad and

00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:38.637
success is bad um you know tall poppy
syndrome you know basically anybody who

00:32:38.720 --> 00:32:41.277
sticks their head up you know deserves
to get it you know chopped off. Anybody

00:32:41.360 --> 00:32:44.637
who's wrong about anything deserves
to get condemned forever. You know, just

00:32:44.720 --> 00:32:49.037
this this very kind of, you know,
grinding, you know, repression. And then

00:32:49.120 --> 00:32:50.957
coupled with specific government actions

00:32:51.040 --> 00:32:53.437
such as censorship regimes, right, and

00:32:53.520 --> 00:32:58.077
debanking, right? Um, and, you know,
draconian, you know, deliberately

00:32:58.160 --> 00:33:01.197
kneecapping, you know, critical American
industries. Um, and then, you know,

00:33:01.280 --> 00:33:03.917
congratulating yourselves in the back
for doing it or, you know, having these

00:33:04.000 --> 00:33:06.797
horrible social policies like, let's
let all the criminals out of jail and see

00:33:06.880 --> 00:33:09.837
what happens, right? Um, and so like
[clears throat] we we've just been

00:33:09.920 --> 00:33:12.397
through this period, you know, I call
it a demoralization campaign. Like we've

00:33:12.480 --> 00:33:14.797
just been through this period where,
you know, whether it started that way or

00:33:14.880 --> 00:33:17.917
not, it ended up basically being this
comprehensive message that says you're

00:33:18.000 --> 00:33:22.157
terrible and if you try to do anything,
you're terrible and [__] you. Um, and

00:33:22.240 --> 00:33:25.357
the Biden administration reached kind
of the full pinnacle of that in in in our

00:33:25.440 --> 00:33:29.277
time. They they got really bad on on many
fronts at the same time. Um, and so

00:33:29.360 --> 00:33:34.397
just like relieving that, um,
and getting kind of back to a reasonably,

00:33:34.480 --> 00:33:37.277
you know, kind of optimistic,
constructive, um, you know, progrowth

00:33:37.360 --> 00:33:41.197
frame of mind. Um, there's just there's
so much pent-up energy and potentially

00:33:41.280 --> 00:33:43.677
in the American system that that alone
is going to, I think, cause, you know,

00:33:43.760 --> 00:33:47.357
growth and and and and spirit to take off.
And then there's a lot of things

00:33:47.440 --> 00:33:49.837
proactively that Yeah. And then there's
a lot of things proactively that could

00:33:49.920 --> 00:33:52.717
be done. >> So, how do
you relieve that? To what

00:33:52.800 --> 00:33:55.117
degree has the thing you describe

00:33:55.200 --> 00:33:58.557
ideologically permeated government and

00:33:58.640 --> 00:34:02.237
permeated big companies?
>> Disclaimer at first, which is I don't

00:34:02.320 --> 00:34:05.037
want to predict anything on any of this
stuff because I've learned the hard way

00:34:05.120 --> 00:34:08.557
that I can't predict politics
or Washington at all. Um, but I would just

00:34:08.640 --> 00:34:11.997
say that the the plans and intentions
are clear and the staffing supports it.

00:34:12.080 --> 00:34:14.637
Um, and all the conversations
are consistent um, with the new

00:34:14.720 --> 00:34:17.597
administration and that they plan to take,
you know, very rapid action on a

00:34:17.680 --> 00:34:19.037
lot of these fronts very quickly.

00:34:19.120 --> 00:34:21.117
They're going to do as much as they
can through executive orders and then

00:34:21.200 --> 00:34:24.397
they're going to do legislation and and
regulatory changes for the rest. And so

00:34:24.480 --> 00:34:26.557
they're they're going to move I think
quickly on a whole bunch of stuff. You

00:34:26.640 --> 00:34:29.597
can already feel I think a shift in the
national spirit or at least let's put it

00:34:29.680 --> 00:34:33.197
this way. I feel it for sure in in Silicon
Valley like it it you mean we we

00:34:33.280 --> 00:34:35.677
you know we just saw a great example
of this with what you know with what Mark

00:34:35.760 --> 00:34:38.637
Zuckerberg is doing. Um you know
obviously I'm I'm involved with with his

00:34:38.720 --> 00:34:41.437
company but you know we we just saw kind
of in public the scope of and speed of

00:34:41.520 --> 00:34:45.037
the changes you know are reflective
of of sort of this of a lot of these

00:34:45.120 --> 00:34:48.797
shifts. But I would say that that same
conversation, those same kinds of things

00:34:48.880 --> 00:34:51.597
are happening throughout the industry,
right? And so the the the tech industry

00:34:51.680 --> 00:34:54.637
itself, whether people were proTrump
or anti-Trump, like there's just like a

00:34:54.720 --> 00:34:58.557
giant vibe shift, mood shift that's like
kicked in already. And then I was with a

00:34:58.640 --> 00:35:02.077
group of Hollywood people about two
weeks ago, um, and they were still, you

00:35:02.160 --> 00:35:05.517
know, people who at least at least
vocally were still very anti-Trump, but

00:35:05.600 --> 00:35:08.477
I said, you know, has anything changed
since since November 6, and they they

00:35:08.560 --> 00:35:11.277
immediately said, oh, it's completely
different. Um, it feels like the ISIS

00:35:11.360 --> 00:35:15.437
thaw um, you know, woke us over.
um you know they said that all kinds of

00:35:15.520 --> 00:35:17.837
projects are going to be able to get
made now that couldn't before that you

00:35:17.920 --> 00:35:21.757
know Hollywood's going to start making
comedies again you know like it it they

00:35:21.840 --> 00:35:25.677
were just like it's it's like it's like
a just like an incredible immediate uh

00:35:25.760 --> 00:35:29.037
environmental change and I'm as I talk
to people kind of throughout you know

00:35:29.120 --> 00:35:31.677
certainly throughout the economy people
who run businesses I I hear that all the

00:35:31.760 --> 00:35:35.757
time which is just this this last 10
years of misery is just over I mean the

00:35:35.840 --> 00:35:38.317
one that I'm watching that's really
funny I mean Facebook's getting a lot

00:35:38.400 --> 00:35:41.117
met is getting a lot of attention
but the other funny one is Black Rockck

00:35:41.200 --> 00:35:43.757
>> which I'm not which you know and I
don't know him but I've watched for a long

00:35:43.840 --> 00:35:47.277
time. And so, you know, the Larry Fink,
who's the CEO of BlackRock, was like

00:35:47.360 --> 00:35:48.877
first in as a major, you know,

00:35:48.960 --> 00:35:52.237
investment CEO on like every dumb social

00:35:52.320 --> 00:35:56.397
trend and rule set. Like every All

00:35:56.480 --> 00:36:00.797
right, I'm going for it. Every [__]
[laughter] every [__] thing you can

00:36:00.880 --> 00:36:04.957
imagine. >> Yeah. >> Every ESG
and every like every possible

00:36:05.040 --> 00:36:08.957
satellite companies with every aspect of
just these crazed ideological positions.

00:36:09.040 --> 00:36:12.237
And you know, he was coming in, he
literally was like had aggreg aggregated

00:36:12.320 --> 00:36:16.397
together trillions of dollars of of of
of of shareholdings that he did not that

00:36:16.480 --> 00:36:19.597
were, you know, that were his his
customers rights. And he, you know,

00:36:19.680 --> 00:36:22.397
seized their voting control of their
shares and was using it to force all

00:36:22.480 --> 00:36:25.597
these companies to do all of this like
crazy ideological stuff. And he he was

00:36:25.680 --> 00:36:28.797
like the typhoid Mary of all this stuff
in corporate America. And if and he in

00:36:28.880 --> 00:36:31.517
the last year has been like backpedaling
from that stuff like as fast as he

00:36:31.600 --> 00:36:35.037
possibly can. And I saw just an example
last week he pulled out of the whatever

00:36:35.120 --> 00:36:38.717
the corporate net zero alliance you know
he pulled out of the crazy energy energy

00:36:38.800 --> 00:36:41.997
energy stuff and so like you know he's
backing away as fast as he can he's

00:36:42.080 --> 00:36:45.117
doing remember the Richard
Prior backwards walk

00:36:45.200 --> 00:36:47.517
>> Richard Prior had this way where he
could he could back out of a room while

00:36:47.600 --> 00:36:49.837
looking at like he
was walking forward [laughter]

00:36:49.920 --> 00:36:53.517
um and so um you know even they're doing

00:36:53.600 --> 00:36:57.597
that um and just the whole thing I mean
this I if you saw the court recently

00:36:57.680 --> 00:37:01.597
ruled that NASDAQ had these crazy
board of directors composition rules

00:37:01.680 --> 00:37:04.237
One of the funniest moments of my life
is when my friend Peter Teal and I were

00:37:04.320 --> 00:37:07.997
on the the the meta board and these
NASDAQ rules came down mandated

00:37:08.080 --> 00:37:11.357
diversity on corporate boards. Um
and so we sat around the table and had to

00:37:11.440 --> 00:37:14.157
figure out, you know, which of us
counted as diverse and the um very

00:37:14.240 --> 00:37:18.877
professional attorneys at at Meta
explained with a 100% complete um

00:37:18.960 --> 00:37:23.677
straight face that Peter Teal counts
as diverse uh by virtue of being LGBT.

00:37:23.760 --> 00:37:26.477
>> And and this is a guy who literally
wrote a book called The Diversity Myth.

00:37:26.560 --> 00:37:28.957
Yeah. >> Um and he
literally looked like he

00:37:29.040 --> 00:37:33.837
swallowed a live goldfish.
Um and and and this was imposed I mean

00:37:33.920 --> 00:37:36.637
this was like so incredibly offensive
to him that like it just like it was just

00:37:36.720 --> 00:37:39.357
absolutely appalling and I felt terrible
for him but the look on his face was

00:37:39.440 --> 00:37:43.437
very funny. Um, and it was imposed
by NASDAQ, you know, your stock exchange

00:37:43.520 --> 00:37:46.957
imposing this stuff on you and then
the court, whatever the court of appeals

00:37:47.040 --> 00:37:50.077
just nuked that, you know, so like
the these things basically are being like

00:37:50.160 --> 00:37:52.877
ripped down one by one and and and
what's on the other side of it is

00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:55.757
basically, you know, finally being able
to get back to, you know, everything

00:37:55.840 --> 00:37:58.157
that, you know, everybody always
wanted to do, which is like run their

00:37:58.240 --> 00:38:02.317
companies, have great products, have
happy customers, you know, like succeed,

00:38:02.400 --> 00:38:05.997
like succeed, achieve, outperform, um,
and, you know, work with the best and

00:38:06.080 --> 00:38:08.797
the brightest and not and not be made
to feel bad about it. And I I think that's

00:38:08.880 --> 00:38:10.957
happening in many areas
of American society.

00:38:11.040 --> 00:38:15.517
>> It's great to hear that Peter Teal
is fundamentally a diversity hire.

00:38:15.600 --> 00:38:18.717
>> Well, so it was very, you know,
there was a moment. So So Peter, you know,

00:38:18.800 --> 00:38:22.077
Peter, of course, um, you know, is is,
uh, you know, is is publicly gay, has

00:38:22.160 --> 00:38:25.357
been for a long time, you know, but, you
know, there are other men on the board,

00:38:25.440 --> 00:38:27.517
right? And, you know, we're sitting
there and we're all looking at it and

00:38:27.600 --> 00:38:30.637
we're like, "All right, like, okay,
LGBT." And we just we keep coming back

00:38:30.720 --> 00:38:36.157
to the B, right? Um,
and it's like, [laughter]

00:38:36.240 --> 00:38:39.517
>> you know, it's like, >> all right,
>> you know, I'm willing to do a lot for

00:38:39.600 --> 00:38:44.077
this company, but [laughter] >> it's
all about sacrifice for diversity.

00:38:44.160 --> 00:38:46.797
>> Well, yeah. And then it's like,
okay, like is there a test?

00:38:46.880 --> 00:38:52.637
>> Like, you know, [laughter] um, so,
>> oh yeah, exactly. How do you prove it?

00:38:52.720 --> 00:38:55.117
>> The questions that [laughter]
got asked, you know,

00:38:55.200 --> 00:38:56.237
>> what are you willing to do?

00:38:56.320 --> 00:39:00.957
>> Yeah. And I I become very good
at asking um lawyers uh completely absurd

00:39:01.040 --> 00:39:02.797
questions with a totally straight face.

00:39:02.880 --> 00:39:05.277
>> And do they answer
with a straight face?

00:39:05.360 --> 00:39:07.757
>> Some sometimes. >> Okay.
>> I think in fairness they have trouble

00:39:07.840 --> 00:39:11.357
telling when I'm joking.
>> So you mentioned the the Hollywood

00:39:11.440 --> 00:39:13.997
folks, maybe people in Silicon Valley

00:39:14.080 --> 00:39:16.237
and the vibe shift. Maybe you can speak

00:39:16.320 --> 00:39:19.437
to uh preference falsification. What do

00:39:19.520 --> 00:39:22.157
they actually believe? How many of them

00:39:22.240 --> 00:39:24.637
actually hate Trump? what like what

00:39:24.720 --> 00:39:27.757
percent of them are uh feeling this vibe

00:39:27.840 --> 00:39:33.437
shift and are interested in uh creating
the roaring 20s in the way they've

00:39:33.520 --> 00:39:37.677
described. >> So first we should maybe
talk population. So there's like all of

00:39:37.760 --> 00:39:40.717
Silicon Valley um and and the way to just
measure that is just look at voting

00:39:40.800 --> 00:39:43.357
records, right? And and and what that
shows consistently is Silicon Valley is

00:39:43.440 --> 00:39:45.837
just a you know at least historically
my entire time there has been

00:39:45.920 --> 00:39:49.757
overwhelmingly majority just straight up
Democrat. Um uh the other way to look at

00:39:49.840 --> 00:39:52.877
that is political donation records. And
again, you know, the political donations

00:39:52.960 --> 00:39:57.117
in the valley, you know, range from 90
to 99%, you know, to one side. Um and

00:39:57.200 --> 00:39:59.677
so, you know, we'll we'll I just bring
up because like we'll see what happens

00:39:59.760 --> 00:40:03.757
with the voting and with donations going
forward. Um I we maybe talk about the

00:40:03.840 --> 00:40:06.477
fire later, but I can tell you there
is a very big question of what's happening

00:40:06.560 --> 00:40:10.317
in Los Angeles right now. Um I don't
want to get into the fire, but like it's

00:40:10.400 --> 00:40:13.277
catastrophic. And you know, there
was already a rightward shift in the big

00:40:13.360 --> 00:40:16.877
cities in California. And I think a lot
of people in LA are really thinking

00:40:16.960 --> 00:40:19.597
about things right now as they're
trying to, you know, literally save their

00:40:19.680 --> 00:40:23.037
houses and save their families. Um, but,
you know, even in San Francisco, there

00:40:23.120 --> 00:40:26.397
was a big, right, there's a big shift
to the right in the voting um, in um, in

00:40:26.480 --> 00:40:28.877
2014. So, we'll see where we'll see
where that goes. But, you know, you

00:40:28.960 --> 00:40:32.317
observe that by just looking at looking
at the numbers over time. Um, the part

00:40:32.400 --> 00:40:35.437
that I'm more focused on is, you know,
and I don't know how to exactly describe

00:40:35.520 --> 00:40:39.917
this, but it's like the top thousand
or the top 10,000 people, right? Um and um

00:40:40.000 --> 00:40:42.637
you know I don't have a list but like
it's the you know it's all the top

00:40:42.720 --> 00:40:46.797
founders, top CEOs, top executives,
top engineers, top VCs, you know and then

00:40:46.880 --> 00:40:49.837
kind of into the ranks um you know
the people who kind of built and run the

00:40:49.920 --> 00:40:53.197
companies. Um and there there you know
I don't have numbers but I have a much

00:40:53.280 --> 00:40:55.517
more tactile feel you know for for for

00:40:55.600 --> 00:40:57.997
what's happening. Um

00:40:58.080 --> 00:41:01.917
so I the big thing I I have now come to

00:41:02.000 --> 00:41:03.517
believe is that the idea that people

00:41:03.600 --> 00:41:07.917
have beliefs is mostly wrong. Um, I

00:41:08.000 --> 00:41:09.997
think that most people just go along.

00:41:10.080 --> 00:41:13.917
Um, and I think even most high status
people just go along. And I think maybe

00:41:14.000 --> 00:41:17.197
the most high status people are the most
prone to just go along because they're

00:41:17.280 --> 00:41:21.917
the most focused on status. Um, and the
way I would describe that is, um, you

00:41:22.000 --> 00:41:25.277
know, one of the great forbidden
philosophers of our time is the uni

00:41:25.360 --> 00:41:29.437
bomber, uh, Ted Kazinski. And amidst
his madness, he had this extremely

00:41:29.520 --> 00:41:32.957
interesting articulation. you know,
he was a he was a he was an insane lunatic

00:41:33.040 --> 00:41:37.437
murderer, but he was also, you know, at
Harvard super genius. Um, not that those

00:41:37.520 --> 00:41:41.677
are in conflict. Um,
[laughter] but >> shots fired, man.

00:41:41.760 --> 00:41:46.157
>> But, uh, he it was a very bright guy
and he he did this whole thing um where he

00:41:46.240 --> 00:41:49.677
talked about basically he he was very
right-wing and talked about leftism a

00:41:49.760 --> 00:41:52.717
lot. Um, and he had this great concept
that's just stuck in my mind ever since

00:41:52.800 --> 00:41:55.357
I wrote it, which is he had this
concept just called over social over

00:41:55.440 --> 00:42:00.157
socialization. Um and so you know most
people are socializ most people are

00:42:00.240 --> 00:42:03.117
socialized like most people are you know
we live in a society most people learn

00:42:03.200 --> 00:42:06.877
how to be part of a society they give
some difference to the society. There's

00:42:06.960 --> 00:42:10.477
something about modern western elites
where they're over socialized um and

00:42:10.560 --> 00:42:13.757
they're just like overly oriented
towards what other people like

00:42:13.840 --> 00:42:18.317
themselves you know think um and believe.
And you can get a real sense of

00:42:18.400 --> 00:42:21.517
that if you have a little bit of an
outside perspective, which I just do I

00:42:21.600 --> 00:42:25.517
think as a consequence of where I grew up.
Um, like even before I had the views

00:42:25.600 --> 00:42:28.397
that I have today, there was always just
this weird thing where it's like, why

00:42:28.480 --> 00:42:30.797
does every dinner party have the exact

00:42:30.880 --> 00:42:35.437
same conversation? Why does everybody
agree on every single issue? Why is that

00:42:35.520 --> 00:42:39.917
agreement precisely what was in the New
York Times today? Um, why are these

00:42:40.000 --> 00:42:43.357
positions not the same as they
were 5 years ago, [laughter]

00:42:43.440 --> 00:42:47.197
right? Uh, but why does everybody like
snap into agreement every step of the

00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:49.917
way? And that was true when I came
to Silicon Valley and it's just as true

00:42:50.000 --> 00:42:53.917
today, 30 years later. And so I I think
most people are just literally take I

00:42:54.000 --> 00:42:56.717
think they're taking their cues from it's
some combination of the press, the

00:42:56.800 --> 00:43:00.317
universities, the big foundations.
So, it's like basically it's like the New

00:43:00.400 --> 00:43:04.477
York Times, a Harvard, the Ford
Foundation, and you know, I don't know,

00:43:04.560 --> 00:43:07.997
um, you know, a few CEOs, um, and a few
public figures and, you know, maybe, you

00:43:08.080 --> 00:43:11.037
know, maybe the president of your parties
in power and like whatever that

00:43:11.120 --> 00:43:15.357
is, everybody just everybody who's sort
of good and proper and elite in good

00:43:15.440 --> 00:43:19.117
standing and in charge of things
and a sort of correct member of, you know,

00:43:19.200 --> 00:43:22.157
let's call it coastal American society,
everybody just believes those things.

00:43:22.240 --> 00:43:25.437
And then, you know, the two interesting
things about that is number one, there's

00:43:25.520 --> 00:43:29.517
no divergence among the the organs
of power, right? So the Harvard and Yale

00:43:29.600 --> 00:43:32.077
believe the exact same thing. The New
York Times, the Washington Post believe

00:43:32.160 --> 00:43:34.157
the exact same thing. The Ford
Foundation and the Rockefeller

00:43:34.240 --> 00:43:35.517
Foundation believe the exact same thing.

00:43:35.600 --> 00:43:37.437
Google and you know whatever, you know,

00:43:37.520 --> 00:43:39.597
Microsoft believe the exact same thing.

00:43:39.680 --> 00:43:43.357
Um, but those things change over time,

00:43:43.440 --> 00:43:47.357
but there's never conflict in the moment,
right? Um, and so, you know, the

00:43:47.440 --> 00:43:49.997
New York Times and the and the
Washington Post agreed on exactly

00:43:50.080 --> 00:43:52.877
everything in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000,

00:43:52.960 --> 00:43:57.677
2010, and 2020, despite the fact
that the specifics changed radically.

00:43:57.760 --> 00:44:01.277
the the lock step was what mattered. Um,
and so I I think basically we we in the

00:44:01.360 --> 00:44:03.757
Valley we're on the tail end of that and
the same way Hollywood's on the tail end

00:44:03.840 --> 00:44:06.397
of that and the same way New York's
on the tail end of that the same way the

00:44:06.480 --> 00:44:09.197
media is on the tail end of that. It's
it's like some sort of collective hive

00:44:09.280 --> 00:44:12.477
mind thing. And I just go through that
to say like I don't think most people in

00:44:12.560 --> 00:44:16.717
my orbit or you know let's say the top
10,000 people in the valley or the top

00:44:16.800 --> 00:44:20.077
10,000 people in LA I don't think
they're sitting there thinking basically

00:44:20.160 --> 00:44:23.517
I have rock I mean they probably think
they have rock beliefs but they don't

00:44:23.600 --> 00:44:26.557
actually have like some inner core of rock
beliefs and then they kind of watch

00:44:26.640 --> 00:44:29.117
reality change around them and try
to figure out how to keep their beliefs

00:44:29.200 --> 00:44:31.757
like correct. I don't think that's what
happens. I think what happens is they

00:44:31.840 --> 00:44:35.197
conform to the belief system around them
and and I think most of the time they're

00:44:35.280 --> 00:44:39.277
not even aware that that they're
basically part of a herd. Is it possible

00:44:39.360 --> 00:44:42.157
that the surface chatter of dinner

00:44:42.240 --> 00:44:45.357
parties underneath that there is a

00:44:45.440 --> 00:44:49.837
turmoil of ideas and thoughts and beliefs
that's going on but you're just

00:44:49.920 --> 00:44:52.077
talking to people really close to you or

00:44:52.160 --> 00:44:54.717
in your own mind and the socialization

00:44:54.800 --> 00:44:59.757
happens at the dinner parties like uh
when you go outside the inner circle of

00:44:59.840 --> 00:45:03.357
one two three four people who you really
trust then you start to conform but

00:45:03.440 --> 00:45:08.477
inside there inside the mind there
is an actual belief or a struggle

00:45:08.560 --> 00:45:10.157
attention with the New York Times or

00:45:10.240 --> 00:45:13.517
with the with

00:45:13.600 --> 00:45:17.757
uh for the listener there's a there's
a slow smile that overtook Mark Andre's

00:45:17.840 --> 00:45:19.117
face. >> So look,
I'll just tell you what I think

00:45:19.200 --> 00:45:22.797
which is at at at the dinner parties and
at the conferences. No, there's none of

00:45:22.880 --> 00:45:26.957
that. Um it's what what there is is
that all of the heretical conversations h

00:45:27.040 --> 00:45:31.037
anything that challenges the status quo
um any heretical ideas and any new idea,

00:45:31.120 --> 00:45:35.277
you know, is a heretical idea. um any
deviation if it's either discussed a

00:45:35.360 --> 00:45:39.357
one-on-one face to face. It's it's like
a whisper network or it's like a real

00:45:39.440 --> 00:45:42.557
life social network. There's a secret
handshake which is like okay you meet

00:45:42.640 --> 00:45:45.677
somebody and you like know each other
a little bit but like not well and like

00:45:45.760 --> 00:45:48.237
you're both trying to figure out if you
can like talk to the other person openly

00:45:48.320 --> 00:45:52.637
or whether you have to like be
fully conformist. It's a joke.

00:45:52.720 --> 00:45:56.237
>> Oh yeah. Humor. >> Somebody cracks
a joke, right? Somebody cracks a joke.

00:45:56.320 --> 00:45:58.877
>> If the other person laughs,
the conversation is on.

00:45:58.960 --> 00:46:03.397
>> Yeah. Yeah. If the other person doesn't
laugh, back slowly away from the scene.

00:46:03.480 --> 00:46:07.757
[laughter] I didn't mean anything by it,
>> right? And by the way, it doesn't have

00:46:07.840 --> 00:46:10.237
to be like a super offensive joke.
It just has to be a joke that's just up

00:46:10.320 --> 00:46:13.677
against the edge of one of the to use
the Sam Bankman Freed term, one of the

00:46:13.760 --> 00:46:18.157
shivalas, you know, it has to be up
against one of the things um of um you

00:46:18.240 --> 00:46:20.717
know, one of the things that you're
absolutely required to believe to be the

00:46:20.800 --> 00:46:22.877
dinner parties. And then and then
at that point, what happens is you have a

00:46:22.960 --> 00:46:26.477
peer-to-p peer network, right? You have
you have you have you have a a one to

00:46:26.560 --> 00:46:29.277
one connection with somebody and then
you you have your you have your your

00:46:29.360 --> 00:46:32.797
little conspiracy of of thought th
thought criminality. Um and then you

00:46:32.880 --> 00:46:35.437
have your you probably been through this.
You have your network of thought

00:46:35.520 --> 00:46:37.517
criminals and then they have their
network of thought criminals and then

00:46:37.600 --> 00:46:40.157
you have this like delicate mating dance
as to whether you should bring the thar

00:46:40.240 --> 00:46:44.637
criminals together. >> Mh. >> Right.
Um >> and the dance the fundamental uh

00:46:44.720 --> 00:46:46.157
mechanism of the dance is humor.

00:46:46.240 --> 00:46:48.957
>> Yeah. It's humor like Right.
Well, of course >> memes. Yeah.

00:46:49.040 --> 00:46:51.837
>> Well, for two for two reasons. Number
one. Number one, humor is a way to have

00:46:51.920 --> 00:46:54.477
deniability, right? Humor is a way
to discuss serious things without without

00:46:54.560 --> 00:46:57.757
without having deniability. Oh, I'm sorry.
It was just a joke. Right? So, so

00:46:57.840 --> 00:47:00.317
that's part of it, which is one of the
reasons why comedians can get away with

00:47:00.400 --> 00:47:02.797
saying things the rest of us can't is,
you know, they can always fall back on,

00:47:02.880 --> 00:47:04.237
oh yeah, I was just going for the laugh.

00:47:04.320 --> 00:47:06.717
>> But but the other key thing about
humor, right, is that is that laughter is

00:47:06.800 --> 00:47:10.237
involuntary, right? Like you either
laugh or you don't. And and it's not

00:47:10.320 --> 00:47:12.797
like a conscious decision whether you're
going to laugh. And everybody can tell

00:47:12.880 --> 00:47:13.997
when somebody's fake laughing, right?

00:47:14.080 --> 00:47:16.557
And this every professional comedian
knows this, right? The laughter is the

00:47:16.640 --> 00:47:18.397
clue that you're on to something truthful.

00:47:18.480 --> 00:47:21.597
>> Like people don't laugh at like made
up [__] stories. They they laugh cuz

00:47:21.680 --> 00:47:24.637
like you're revealing something that
they either have not been allowed to

00:47:24.720 --> 00:47:28.157
think about or have not been allowed
to talk about, right? Or is off limits and

00:47:28.240 --> 00:47:31.037
all of a sudden it's like the ice breaks
and it's like, "Oh yeah, that's the

00:47:31.120 --> 00:47:34.237
thing." And it's funny and like I laugh
and then and then of course this is why

00:47:34.320 --> 00:47:36.797
of course live comedy is so powerful
is because you're all doing that at the

00:47:36.880 --> 00:47:39.597
same time. So you start to have right
the safety of you know the safety of

00:47:39.680 --> 00:47:43.117
numbers and so so the comedians have
like the all it's no no surprise to me

00:47:43.200 --> 00:47:45.517
like for example Joe's been
as successful as he has because they have

00:47:45.600 --> 00:47:48.157
they have this hack that the you know
the rest of us who are not professional

00:47:48.240 --> 00:47:51.117
comedians don't have but but you have
your inperson version of it. Yeah. Yeah.

00:47:51.200 --> 00:47:53.517
And then you got the question of whether
the whether you can sort of join the

00:47:53.600 --> 00:47:55.917
networks together and then you've
probably been to this is you know then

00:47:56.000 --> 00:47:59.357
at some point there's like a different
there's like the alt dinner party uh the

00:47:59.440 --> 00:48:01.837
darker middle dinner party and you get
six or eight people together and you

00:48:01.920 --> 00:48:05.037
join the networks and those are like the
happiest mo at least in the last decade

00:48:05.120 --> 00:48:07.437
those are like the happiest moments
of everybody's lives because they're just

00:48:07.520 --> 00:48:10.157
like everybody's just ecstatic because
they're like I don't have to worry about

00:48:10.240 --> 00:48:13.197
getting yelled at and shamed >> like
for every third sentence that comes

00:48:13.280 --> 00:48:16.717
out of my mouth and we can actually talk
about real things. Um so so that's the

00:48:16.800 --> 00:48:19.437
live version of it and then the and then
of course the other side of it is the

00:48:19.520 --> 00:48:22.797
you know the group chat the group chat
phenomenon. Um right and then this and

00:48:22.880 --> 00:48:25.917
then basically the same thing played out
you know until until Elon bought X and

00:48:26.000 --> 00:48:28.637
until Substack took off uh you
know which were really the two big

00:48:28.720 --> 00:48:32.397
breakthroughs in free speech online. The
same dynamic played out online which is

00:48:32.480 --> 00:48:35.277
you had absolute conformity on the social
networks like literally enforced

00:48:35.360 --> 00:48:37.837
by the social networks themselves
through censorship and and then also

00:48:37.920 --> 00:48:41.597
through cancellation campaigns
and mobbing and shaming right and and but

00:48:41.680 --> 00:48:45.597
then you had but but then group chats grew
up to be the equivalent of samos right

00:48:45.680 --> 00:48:49.277
>> anybody who grew up in the Soviet
Union under you know communism no you know

00:48:49.360 --> 00:48:51.997
they had the hard version of this right
it's like how do you know who you could

00:48:52.080 --> 00:48:56.077
talk to and then how do you distribute
information and you know like you know

00:48:56.160 --> 00:48:58.717
again that was the hard authoritarian
version of this and then we've been

00:48:58.800 --> 00:49:01.917
living through this weird mutant you
know, soft authoritarian version, but

00:49:02.000 --> 00:49:03.597
with, you know,
with some of the same patterns

00:49:03.680 --> 00:49:05.277
>> and WhatsApp allows you to scale it and

00:49:05.360 --> 00:49:07.837
make it more efficient to uh to build on

00:49:07.920 --> 00:49:13.037
these uh groups of heretical
ideas bonded by humor.

00:49:13.120 --> 00:49:15.277
>> Yeah, exactly. Well, and this is
the thing and well, this is kind of the

00:49:15.360 --> 00:49:17.917
running joke about group the running
kind of thing about group chats. It's

00:49:18.000 --> 00:49:21.037
not even a joke. It's true. It's like
it's like every group chat, if you've

00:49:21.120 --> 00:49:24.397
noticed this, like every this principle
of group chats, every group chat ends up

00:49:24.480 --> 00:49:28.317
being about memes and humor. And the goal
of the game, the game of the group

00:49:28.400 --> 00:49:31.517
chat is to get as close to the line
of being actually objectionable.

00:49:31.600 --> 00:49:34.157
>> Yeah. >> As you can get
without actually tripping

00:49:34.240 --> 00:49:37.597
it, right? And like literally every
group chat that I have been in for the

00:49:37.680 --> 00:49:40.877
last decade, even if it starts some
other direction, what ends up happening

00:49:40.960 --> 00:49:45.277
is it becomes that absolute comedy fest
where but it's walking. They walk right

00:49:45.360 --> 00:49:47.677
up to the line and they're constantly
testing and every once in a while

00:49:47.760 --> 00:49:50.157
somebody will trip the line and people
will freak out and it's like, "Oh, too

00:49:50.240 --> 00:49:52.877
soon. Okay, you know, we got to wait
till next year to talk about that." You

00:49:52.960 --> 00:49:55.597
know, they they walk it back and so
it's that same thing. And yeah, and then

00:49:55.680 --> 00:49:58.637
group chats as a technological phenomenon.
It was amazing to see cuz

00:49:58.720 --> 00:50:01.917
basically it was number one it was, you
know, obviously the rise of smartphones.

00:50:02.000 --> 00:50:05.917
Then it was the rise of the of the the
new messaging services. Um then it was

00:50:06.000 --> 00:50:09.037
the rise specifically of I would say
combination of WhatsApp and Signal. And

00:50:09.120 --> 00:50:12.237
the reason for that is those were
the two the two big systems that did the

00:50:12.320 --> 00:50:16.477
full encryption. Um so you actually had
you actually felt safe and then the real

00:50:16.560 --> 00:50:21.037
breakthrough I think was disappearing
messages uh which hit signal probably

00:50:21.120 --> 00:50:25.437
four or five years ago and hit WhatsApp
three or four years ago. And then the

00:50:25.520 --> 00:50:29.997
combination of um the combination
of encryption and um uh and disappearing

00:50:30.080 --> 00:50:31.357
messages I think really unleashed it.

00:50:31.440 --> 00:50:33.597
Well, then there's the fight then
there's the fight over the the the

00:50:33.680 --> 00:50:36.637
length of the disappearing messages,
>> right? And so it's like, you know, I

00:50:36.720 --> 00:50:40.717
often get behind on my my thing.
So I I set to 7-day, you know, disinferior

00:50:40.800 --> 00:50:44.157
messages and my friends who, you know,
are like, "No, that's way too much risk."

00:50:44.240 --> 00:50:45.517
>> Yeah. >> It's got to be a day.
And then every

00:50:45.600 --> 00:50:48.397
once in a while, somebody will set it
to five minutes before they send something

00:50:48.480 --> 00:50:49.677
like particularly inflammatory.

00:50:49.760 --> 00:50:53.597
>> Yeah. 100%. What what I mean one of
the things that bothers me about WhatsApp

00:50:53.680 --> 00:50:58.147
the choice is between 24 hours and you
know 7 days one day or seven days

00:50:58.230 --> 00:51:01.837
[laughter] and I I have to have
an existential crisis about deciding

00:51:01.920 --> 00:51:04.877
>> Yes. Exactly. >> whether
I can last for seven days with

00:51:04.960 --> 00:51:07.757
what I'm about to say. [laughter] >> Yeah.
Exactly. Now of course what's

00:51:07.840 --> 00:51:10.797
happening right now is the big thaw,
right? And so the vibe shift. So what's

00:51:10.880 --> 00:51:14.077
happening on the other on the other side
of of the election is you know Elon on

00:51:14.160 --> 00:51:17.517
Twitter two years ago and now Mark
with Facebook and Instagram and by the way

00:51:17.600 --> 00:51:20.077
with the continued growth of Substack
and with other you know new platforms

00:51:20.160 --> 00:51:24.237
that are emerging you know like I I
think it may be you know I don't know

00:51:24.320 --> 00:51:27.277
that everything just shifts back into
public but like a tremendous amount of

00:51:27.360 --> 00:51:31.117
the uh a tremendous amount of the
verboten um uh conversations you know

00:51:31.200 --> 00:51:35.117
can now shift back into into public view.
Um, and I mean quite frankly, this

00:51:35.200 --> 00:51:37.277
is one of those things, you know, quite
frankly, even if I was opposed to what

00:51:37.360 --> 00:51:40.717
those what people are saying, and I'm
sure I am in some cases. Um, you know, I

00:51:40.800 --> 00:51:43.357
I would argue it's still like net better
for society that those things happen in

00:51:43.440 --> 00:51:47.837
public instead of private. Um, you know,
do do you really want like Yeah. Like

00:51:47.920 --> 00:51:49.357
don't you want to know? >> Yeah.

00:51:49.440 --> 00:51:52.797
>> Um, and and so and and then it's
just look, it's just I think clearly much

00:51:52.880 --> 00:51:55.517
healthier to live in a society in which
people are not literally scared of what

00:51:55.600 --> 00:51:59.917
they're saying. I mean to to push back
and to come back to this idea that we're

00:52:00.000 --> 00:52:03.517
talking about I do believe that people
have beliefs and thoughts that are

00:52:03.600 --> 00:52:05.517
heretical like a lot of people I wonder

00:52:05.600 --> 00:52:09.757
what fraction of people have that to me

00:52:09.840 --> 00:52:13.277
this is the preference falsification is
really interesting what is the landscape

00:52:13.360 --> 00:52:16.317
of ideas that human civilization has in

00:52:16.400 --> 00:52:18.077
private

00:52:18.160 --> 00:52:20.957
>> as compared to what's out in public cuz

00:52:21.040 --> 00:52:24.077
like that the the the dynamical system

00:52:24.160 --> 00:52:28.077
that is the difference between those
It's fascinating like there's throughout

00:52:28.160 --> 00:52:30.237
history the the fall of communism in

00:52:30.320 --> 00:52:33.117
multiple regimes throughout Europe is

00:52:33.200 --> 00:52:35.677
really interesting because everybody was

00:52:35.760 --> 00:52:39.277
following you know the line until not

00:52:39.360 --> 00:52:42.397
but you better for sure privately there

00:52:42.480 --> 00:52:44.157
was a huge number of boiling

00:52:44.240 --> 00:52:46.797
conversations happening where like this

00:52:46.880 --> 00:52:51.917
is this the bureaucracy of communism the
corruption of communism all of that was

00:52:52.000 --> 00:52:55.357
really bothering people more and more
and more and more and all of a sudden

00:52:55.440 --> 00:52:57.997
there's a trigger that allows the vibe

00:52:58.080 --> 00:53:00.637
shift to happen. So to me like the the

00:53:00.720 --> 00:53:03.197
interesting question here is what is the

00:53:03.280 --> 00:53:05.757
landscape of private thoughts and ideas

00:53:05.840 --> 00:53:07.677
and conversations that are happening

00:53:07.760 --> 00:53:11.677
under the surface of uh of of Americans

00:53:11.760 --> 00:53:16.077
especially my question is how much
dormant energy is there for this roaring

00:53:16.160 --> 00:53:19.997
20s where people are like no
more [__] let's get [__] done.

00:53:20.080 --> 00:53:22.477
>> Yeah. So let's go through the we'll
go through the theory of preference

00:53:22.560 --> 00:53:26.557
falsification just just >> by the way
amazing the books on this is fascinating.

00:53:26.640 --> 00:53:29.277
>> Yeah. Yeah. So this is this is exactly
this is one of the all-time great books.

00:53:29.360 --> 00:53:32.157
Incredibly it's about 20 30 year old
book but it's very it's completely

00:53:32.240 --> 00:53:34.877
modern and current in what it
talks about as well as very deeply

00:53:34.960 --> 00:53:39.117
historically informed. Um so it's called
private truths public lies and it's

00:53:39.200 --> 00:53:41.837
written by assoc a social science

00:53:41.920 --> 00:53:44.637
professor named Timmer Kuran um at I

00:53:44.720 --> 00:53:48.877
think Duke um and it's it's definitive
work on this and so he he has this

00:53:48.960 --> 00:53:50.957
concept he calls preference
falsification and so preference

00:53:51.040 --> 00:53:54.237
falsification is two things preference
falsification and you get it from the

00:53:54.320 --> 00:53:57.197
title of the book private truths public
lies. So preference falsification is

00:53:57.280 --> 00:54:02.477
when you believe something and you can't
say it or and this is very important.

00:54:02.560 --> 00:54:06.877
You don't believe something and you must
say it, right? Um and and and and the

00:54:06.960 --> 00:54:10.237
commonality there is in both cases
you're lying. You you you you believe

00:54:10.320 --> 00:54:12.397
you believe something internally
and then and then you're lying about it in

00:54:12.480 --> 00:54:16.317
public. Um and so the the thing you
know and and there's sort of two the two

00:54:16.400 --> 00:54:19.037
classic forms of it. There's the I you
know, for example, there's the I believe

00:54:19.120 --> 00:54:22.637
communism is rotten but I can't say it
version of it. Um but then there's also

00:54:22.720 --> 00:54:27.597
the the the famous parable of the the
real life example but um the thing that

00:54:27.680 --> 00:54:30.477
Vaslav Haval talks about in the other
good book on this topic which is the

00:54:30.560 --> 00:54:34.557
power of the powerless um you know who
is an anti-communist resistance fighter

00:54:34.640 --> 00:54:37.757
who ultimately became the you know the
the president chuckles after the fall of

00:54:37.840 --> 00:54:40.717
the wall but he wrote this book and he
he describes the other side of this

00:54:40.800 --> 00:54:45.197
which is um workers of the world unite
right and so he he describes what he

00:54:45.280 --> 00:54:46.957
calls the parable of the green ger which

00:54:47.040 --> 00:54:50.717
is your green ger in Prague in 1985 um

00:54:50.800 --> 00:54:54.717
And for the last 70 years it has been
or 50 years it's been absolutely mandatory

00:54:54.800 --> 00:54:57.517
to have a sign in the window of your
store that says workers of the world

00:54:57.600 --> 00:55:02.157
unite, right? Um and it's 1985. It
is like crystal clear that the world the

00:55:02.240 --> 00:55:06.077
workers of the world are not going
to unite. Like [laughter] like of all the

00:55:06.160 --> 00:55:08.877
things that could happen in the world,
that is not going to happen. The commies

00:55:08.960 --> 00:55:11.757
have been at that for 70 years.
It is not happening. But that slogan had

00:55:11.840 --> 00:55:14.397
better be in your window every morning
because if it's not in your window every

00:55:14.480 --> 00:55:15.917
morning, you are not a good communist.

00:55:16.000 --> 00:55:17.997
The secret police are going to come
by and they're going to they're going to

00:55:18.080 --> 00:55:21.037
get you. Um, and so the first thing you
do when you get to the story is you put

00:55:21.120 --> 00:55:23.437
that slogan in the window and you make
sure that it stays in the window all day

00:55:23.520 --> 00:55:26.637
long. And but he says the thing is every
single person, the green grosser knows

00:55:26.720 --> 00:55:29.197
the slogan is fake. He knows it's a lie.

00:55:29.280 --> 00:55:32.317
Every single person walking past
the slogan knows that it's a lie. Every

00:55:32.400 --> 00:55:35.517
single person walking past the store
knows that the green grosser is only

00:55:35.600 --> 00:55:39.597
putting it up there because he has to lie
in public. Um, and the green grosser

00:55:39.680 --> 00:55:42.797
has to go through the humiliation
of knowing that everybody knows that he's

00:55:42.880 --> 00:55:46.637
caving into the system and lying
in public. And so it it it turns into

00:55:46.720 --> 00:55:50.877
demoralization campaign. It it it it's
it's not just ideological enforcement.

00:55:50.960 --> 00:55:53.197
In fact, it's not ideological
enforcement anymore because everybody

00:55:53.280 --> 00:55:56.237
knows it's fake. The authorities know
it's fake. Everybody knows it's fake.

00:55:56.320 --> 00:55:59.357
It's not that they're enforcing
the actual ideology of the world's workers

00:55:59.440 --> 00:56:02.717
of the world uniting.
It's that they are enforcing compliance,

00:56:02.800 --> 00:56:07.117
>> right? And compliance with the regime
and [__] you, you will comply, right? Uh

00:56:07.200 --> 00:56:09.597
and so so anyway, that that that's
the other side of that. And and of course,

00:56:09.680 --> 00:56:13.917
we have lived in the last decade through
a lot of both of those. Um, I think

00:56:14.000 --> 00:56:16.957
anybody listening to this could name
a series of slogans that we've all been

00:56:17.040 --> 00:56:20.317
forced to chant for the last decade that
everybody knows at this point are just

00:56:20.400 --> 00:56:22.237
like simply not true. I'll I'll let the

00:56:22.320 --> 00:56:23.757
audience, you know, speculate on those

00:56:23.840 --> 00:56:29.357
on their own group chats. Um, [laughter]
>> send Mark your memes online as well,

00:56:29.440 --> 00:56:32.637
please. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. But, okay.
So, anyway, so it's the two sides of that,

00:56:32.720 --> 00:56:36.397
right? So, it's it's it's it's private
true public lies. Um so then what

00:56:36.480 --> 00:56:39.357
preference falsification does is it
talks about extending that from the idea

00:56:39.440 --> 00:56:41.997
of the individual experiencing
that to the idea of the entire society

00:56:42.080 --> 00:56:45.117
experiencing that right and this gets
to your percentages question which is like

00:56:45.200 --> 00:56:48.877
okay what happens in a society in which
people are forced to lie in public about

00:56:48.960 --> 00:56:51.357
what they truly believe. What happens
number one is that individually they're

00:56:51.440 --> 00:56:54.077
lying in public and that's bad. But
the other thing that happens is they no

00:56:54.160 --> 00:56:57.437
longer have an accurate gauge at all
or any way to estimate how many people

00:56:57.520 --> 00:57:01.117
agree with them. And and and this is how
you and again this this this literally

00:57:01.200 --> 00:57:03.757
is like how you get something like like
the communist system which is like okay

00:57:03.840 --> 00:57:08.157
it it you you you end up in a situation
in which 80 or 90 or 99% of a society

00:57:08.240 --> 00:57:10.717
can actually all be thinking
individually I really don't buy this

00:57:10.800 --> 00:57:14.077
anymore and if anybody would just stand
up and say it I would be willing to go

00:57:14.160 --> 00:57:16.077
along with it but I'm not going to be
the first one to put my head on the

00:57:16.160 --> 00:57:20.157
chopping block. But you have no because
of the suppression censorship you have

00:57:20.240 --> 00:57:24.077
no way of knowing how many other people
agree with you. And if the people if the

00:57:24.160 --> 00:57:26.877
people agree with you are 10% of the
population and you become part of a

00:57:26.960 --> 00:57:31.277
movement, you're going to get killed. If
90% of the people agree with you, you're

00:57:31.360 --> 00:57:35.117
going to win the revolution, right?
And so the question of like what the

00:57:35.200 --> 00:57:38.157
percentage actually is is like a really
critical question. And then and then

00:57:38.240 --> 00:57:41.037
basically in any sort of authoritarian
system, you can you can't like run a

00:57:41.120 --> 00:57:43.997
survey, right, to get an accurate result.
And so you actually can't know

00:57:44.080 --> 00:57:46.637
until you put it to the test. And then
what he describes in the book is it's

00:57:46.720 --> 00:57:47.757
always put to the test in the same way.

00:57:47.840 --> 00:57:50.877
And this is exactly what's happened for
the last two years. Like 100% of exactly

00:57:50.960 --> 00:57:52.237
what's happened. It's like straight out

00:57:52.320 --> 00:57:56.077
of this book, which is somebody Elon

00:57:56.160 --> 00:57:59.757
>> sticks his hand up [laughter] and says,
"The workers of the world are not going

00:57:59.840 --> 00:58:02.397
to unite." >> Yeah. >> Right.
Or the emperor is actually

00:58:02.480 --> 00:58:05.757
wearing no clothes. Right. You know that
famous parable, right? Um so one person

00:58:05.840 --> 00:58:08.317
stands up and does it and and literally
that person is standing there by

00:58:08.400 --> 00:58:11.517
themselves and everybody else
in the audience is like, "Ooh,

00:58:11.600 --> 00:58:13.677
>> I wonder what's going
to happen to that guy."

00:58:13.760 --> 00:58:16.557
>> Right? But again, nobody knows.
Elon doesn't know. The first guy doesn't

00:58:16.640 --> 00:58:19.277
know. Other people don't know.
Like which way is this going to go? And it

00:58:19.360 --> 00:58:22.077
may be that that's a minority position
and that's a way to get yourself killed.

00:58:22.160 --> 00:58:25.117
Or it may be that that's the majority
position and that and you are now the

00:58:25.200 --> 00:58:27.997
leader of a revolution. And then
basically of course what happens is okay

00:58:28.080 --> 00:58:31.757
the first guy does that doesn't get
killed. The second guy does well a lot

00:58:31.840 --> 00:58:34.557
of the time that guy does get killed
but when the guy doesn't get killed then a

00:58:34.640 --> 00:58:38.237
second guy pops his head up says the same
thing. All right now you've got two

00:58:38.320 --> 00:58:42.077
two leads to four leads to eight. Eight
leads to 16. And then as we saw with the

00:58:42.160 --> 00:58:45.117
fall of the Berlin wall this is what
happened in Russia and Eastern Europe in

00:58:45.200 --> 00:58:47.517
' 89. you when it when it goes it can go

00:58:47.600 --> 00:58:52.157
right and then it rips and then what
happens is very very quickly if it if it

00:58:52.240 --> 00:58:54.397
turns out that you had a large
percentage of the population that

00:58:54.480 --> 00:58:57.197
actually believe the different thing it
turns out all of a sudden everybody has

00:58:57.280 --> 00:59:00.637
this giant epiphany that says oh I'm
actually part of the majority and at

00:59:00.720 --> 00:59:04.317
that point like you are on the freight
train of revolution right like it is

00:59:04.400 --> 00:59:08.797
rolling right now the other part of this
is the distinction between the role of

00:59:08.880 --> 00:59:11.917
the elites and the masses um and here
and here the best book is called the

00:59:12.000 --> 00:59:15.757
true believer which is the the Eric
Hoffer book um and so the the The nuance

00:59:15.840 --> 00:59:19.517
you have to put on this is the the the
elites play a giant role in this because

00:59:19.600 --> 00:59:23.597
the the the elites do idea formation
and communication, but the elites by

00:59:23.680 --> 00:59:27.037
definition are a small minority. And so
there's also this giant role played by

00:59:27.120 --> 00:59:29.517
the masses. And the masses are not
necessarily thinking these things

00:59:29.600 --> 00:59:33.437
through in the same intellectualized
formal way that the elites are, but they

00:59:33.520 --> 00:59:36.237
are for sure experiencing these things
in their daily lives and they for sure

00:59:36.320 --> 00:59:39.277
have at least very strong emotional
views on them. And so when you when you

00:59:39.360 --> 00:59:42.717
really get the revolution, it's when you
get the elites lined up with or or or or

00:59:42.800 --> 00:59:46.077
a new either the current elites change
or the new set of elites, a new set of

00:59:46.160 --> 00:59:48.957
counter elites um basically come along
and say no, there's actually a different

00:59:49.040 --> 00:59:51.997
better way to live and then the piece
the people basically decide to follow

00:59:52.080 --> 00:59:53.597
the you know follow the counter elite.

00:59:53.680 --> 00:59:56.397
So that that that's the other dimension
to it and of course that part is also

00:59:56.480 --> 00:59:59.597
happening right now. Um, and again, case
study number one of that would be Elon

00:59:59.680 --> 01:00:03.037
and his, you know, it turns out,
you know, truly massive following.

01:00:03.120 --> 01:00:06.157
>> And he has done that over and over
in different industries, not just saying

01:00:06.240 --> 01:00:08.557
crazy [__] online, but saying crazy [__]

01:00:08.640 --> 01:00:11.357
in the in the realm of space, in the

01:00:11.440 --> 01:00:15.597
realm of autonomous driving, in the realm
of AI, just over and over and over

01:00:15.680 --> 01:00:19.197
again. Turns out saying crazy [__]
is one of the ways to do a revolution and

01:00:19.280 --> 01:00:21.517
to actually make progress. >> Yeah.
And it's like, well, but then

01:00:21.600 --> 01:00:23.517
there's the test.
Is it crazy [__] or is it the truth?

01:00:23.600 --> 01:00:25.757
>> Yeah. >> Right.
and and and you know and this is

01:00:25.840 --> 01:00:28.957
where you know many there are many
specific things about Elon's genius but

01:00:29.040 --> 01:00:32.157
one of the one of the really core ones
is an absolute dedication to the truth

01:00:32.240 --> 01:00:35.037
um and so when Elon says something it
sounds like crazy [__] but in his mind

01:00:35.120 --> 01:00:39.357
it's true now is he always right no
sometimes the rockets crash like you

01:00:39.440 --> 01:00:42.637
know sometimes he's wrong or he's human
he's like anybody else he's not right

01:00:42.720 --> 01:00:46.157
all the time but at least my my throughine
with him both in what he says

01:00:46.240 --> 01:00:48.717
in public and what he says in private
which by the way are the exact same

01:00:48.800 --> 01:00:52.077
things he he does not do this he doesn't
lie in public about what he believes in

01:00:52.160 --> 01:00:54.957
private or at least he doesn't do that
anymore like he's he's 100%% consistent

01:00:55.040 --> 01:00:58.797
in my in my experience. By the way,
there's two guys who are 100% consistent

01:00:58.880 --> 01:01:03.117
like that that I know.
Um Elen and Trump. [laughter] >> Yeah.

01:01:03.200 --> 01:01:04.557
>> Whatever you think of them.

01:01:04.640 --> 01:01:07.437
>> Yeah. >> What they say in private is
100% identical to what they say in public.

01:01:07.520 --> 01:01:08.637
Like they are completely transparent.

01:01:08.720 --> 01:01:11.837
They're completely honest in that way,
right? Which is like, and again, it's

01:01:11.920 --> 01:01:14.397
not like they're perfect people,
but they're honest in that way. And and it

01:01:14.480 --> 01:01:17.757
makes them potentially both as they
have been very powerful leaders of these

01:01:17.840 --> 01:01:20.957
movements because they're both willing
to stand up and say the thing that if

01:01:21.040 --> 01:01:24.157
it's true, it turns out to be the thing
in many cases that, you know, many or

01:01:24.240 --> 01:01:26.877
most or almost everyone else actually
believes, but nobody was actually

01:01:26.960 --> 01:01:30.317
willing to say out loud. And so they can
actually catalyze these shifts. And I I

01:01:30.400 --> 01:01:32.957
mean I think this framework is exactly
why Trump took over the Republican party

01:01:33.040 --> 01:01:35.277
as I think Trump stood up there
on stage with all these other kind of

01:01:35.360 --> 01:01:37.917
conventional Republicans and he started
saying things out loud that it turned

01:01:38.000 --> 01:01:41.197
out the base really was they were either
already believing or they were prone to

01:01:41.280 --> 01:01:44.557
believe. Um and he was the only one
who was saying them. And so the ma again

01:01:44.640 --> 01:01:47.917
elite masses. He was elite. The voters
of the ma masses and the the voters

01:01:48.000 --> 01:01:52.317
decided you know no more bushes like
we're going this other direction. That's

01:01:52.400 --> 01:01:54.957
the mechanism of social change.
Like what we just described is like the

01:01:55.040 --> 01:01:58.477
actual mechanism of social change.
It is fascinating to me that we have been

01:01:58.560 --> 01:02:01.677
living through exactly this. We've been
living through exa everything exactly

01:02:01.760 --> 01:02:05.997
what team describes everything that
Vasav Havl described. We've been you

01:02:06.080 --> 01:02:10.477
know black squares on Instagram like
the whole thing right all of it. Um uh and

01:02:10.560 --> 01:02:13.677
we've been living through the um you
know the the true believer elites masses

01:02:13.760 --> 01:02:16.717
you know thing with you know with a set
of like basically incredibly corrupt

01:02:16.800 --> 01:02:19.037
elites wondering why they don't have the
loyalty to the masses anymore and a set

01:02:19.120 --> 01:02:22.477
of new elites that are running away with
things and so like we're living through

01:02:22.560 --> 01:02:25.997
this like incredible applied case
study um of these ideas and you know if

01:02:26.080 --> 01:02:29.837
there's a moral of the story it is you
know I think fairly obvious which is it

01:02:29.920 --> 01:02:33.037
is a really bad idea for a society
to wedge itself into a position in which

01:02:33.120 --> 01:02:35.677
most people don't believe
the fundamental precepts of what they're

01:02:35.760 --> 01:02:38.397
told they have to do you know to be
to be good people like that that is just

01:02:38.480 --> 01:02:42.157
not not a good state be in.
>> So one of the ways to avoid that in the

01:02:42.240 --> 01:02:45.917
future maybe is to keep the delta
between what's said in private and

01:02:46.000 --> 01:02:48.957
what's said in public small. >> Yeah.
It's like well this is sort of the

01:02:49.040 --> 01:02:51.677
the siren song of censorship is we can
keep people from saying things which

01:02:51.760 --> 01:02:53.757
means we can keep keep
people from thinking things.

01:02:53.840 --> 01:02:59.117
>> Yeah. And you know by the way that may
work for a while right like you know I

01:02:59.200 --> 01:03:02.877
mean again the hard form of the Soviet
Union Soviet Union owning a mimograph

01:03:02.960 --> 01:03:05.917
prehoccopers there were mimograph
machines that were used to make satan

01:03:06.000 --> 01:03:08.877
underground newspapers which is the the
mechanism of comm written communication

01:03:08.960 --> 01:03:11.757
of of radical ideas heretical ideas um

01:03:11.840 --> 01:03:16.717
ownership of a meograph machine
was punishable by death um right so that's

01:03:16.800 --> 01:03:20.397
the hard version right you know the soft
version is somebody clicks a button in

01:03:20.480 --> 01:03:24.717
Washington and you are erased from the
internet right like which you know good

01:03:24.800 --> 01:03:27.437
news you're still alive bad news is you
know shame about not being able to get a

01:03:27.520 --> 01:03:30.877
job you know too bad your family now you
know hates you and won't talk to you but

01:03:30.960 --> 01:03:33.357
you know what or whatever the you know
whatever the version of cancellation has

01:03:33.440 --> 01:03:36.717
been um and so so so like does that work

01:03:36.800 --> 01:03:40.397
like maybe it works for a while like it
worked for the Soviet Union for a while

01:03:40.480 --> 01:03:43.117
you know in its way especially when it
was coupled with you know official state

01:03:43.200 --> 01:03:47.517
power but when it unwinds it can unwind
with like incredible speed and ferocity

01:03:47.600 --> 01:03:50.797
because to your point there's all this
bottled up energy now your question was

01:03:50.880 --> 01:03:55.277
like what are the percentages like what
what's the breakdown down. And so my my

01:03:55.360 --> 01:03:57.117
rough guess just based on what I've seen

01:03:57.200 --> 01:04:00.637
in my world is it's something like 20 60

01:04:00.720 --> 01:04:04.717
um it's like you've got 20% like true
believers in whatever is you know the

01:04:04.800 --> 01:04:08.237
current thing you know you got 20%
of people who are just like true believers

01:04:08.320 --> 01:04:10.717
of whatever they they're you know
whatever's the like I said whatever's

01:04:10.800 --> 01:04:13.917
the New York Times Harvard professors
and the Ford Foundation like just they

01:04:14.000 --> 01:04:16.717
just believe and by the way maybe
it's 10 maybe it's five but let's say

01:04:16.800 --> 01:04:19.197
generously it's it's 20 so so you know

01:04:19.280 --> 01:04:24.157
20% kind of full-on revolutionaries um
Um, and then you've got, let's call it

01:04:24.240 --> 01:04:26.957
20% on the other side that are like,
"No, I'm not on board with this. This is

01:04:27.040 --> 01:04:30.237
this is crazy. I'm not I'm not signing
up for this." But, you know, you know,

01:04:30.320 --> 01:04:32.957
they their view of themselves is they're
in a small minority. And in fact, they

01:04:33.040 --> 01:04:35.997
start out in a small minority because
what happens is the 60% go with the

01:04:36.080 --> 01:04:40.317
first 20%, not the second 20%. So,
you've got this large middle of people.

01:04:40.400 --> 01:04:42.877
And it's not that there's anything like
it's not that people in the middle are

01:04:42.960 --> 01:04:46.317
not smart or anything like that.
it's that they just have like normal lives

01:04:46.400 --> 01:04:48.717
and they're just trying to get by and
they're just trying to go to work each

01:04:48.800 --> 01:04:52.317
day and do a good job and be a good
person and raise their kids and, you

01:04:52.400 --> 01:04:55.757
know, have a little bit of time to watch
the game. Um, and they're just not

01:04:55.840 --> 01:04:59.517
engaged in the cut and thrust of, you
know, political activism or any of this

01:04:59.600 --> 01:05:03.517
stuff is just not their thing. But then,
but that's where the over socialization

01:05:03.600 --> 01:05:07.437
comes in. It's just like, okay,
by default, the 60% will go along with the

01:05:07.520 --> 01:05:09.197
20% of the radical revolutionaries, at

01:05:09.280 --> 01:05:11.837
least for a while. And then the counter

01:05:11.920 --> 01:05:14.477
elite is in this other 20%. And over

01:05:14.560 --> 01:05:19.997
time they build up a theory and network
and ability to resist um and a new set

01:05:20.080 --> 01:05:23.357
of representatives and a new set of ideas.
And then at some point there's a

01:05:23.440 --> 01:05:26.797
contest and then and then and then and
then right and then the question is what

01:05:26.880 --> 01:05:29.917
happens in the middle? What happens
in the 60%? And and it and it's kind of my

01:05:30.000 --> 01:05:33.597
point. It's not even really does the 60%
change their beliefs as much as it's

01:05:33.680 --> 01:05:35.197
like okay what what is the thing that

01:05:35.280 --> 01:05:37.757
that 60% now decides to basically fall

01:05:37.840 --> 01:05:42.477
into step with. And I think that 60
in the valley that 60% for the last decade

01:05:42.560 --> 01:05:44.557
decided to be woke. Um and you know

01:05:44.640 --> 01:05:47.357
extremely I would say

01:05:47.440 --> 01:05:52.397
on edge on a lot of things and I you
know that 60% is pivoting in real time.

01:05:52.480 --> 01:05:55.437
They're they're just done.
They're they've just had it

01:05:55.520 --> 01:05:57.437
>> and I would love
to see where that pivot

01:05:57.520 --> 01:06:00.637
goes because there's internal
battles happening right now. Right.

01:06:00.720 --> 01:06:03.117
>> So this is the other thing. Okay.
So there's two two forms of internal

01:06:03.200 --> 01:06:06.237
there's two forms of things and team
has actually talked about this. Professor

01:06:06.320 --> 01:06:09.277
Kron has talked about this. So, so one
is he said he said this is the kind of

01:06:09.360 --> 01:06:11.517
unwind where what you're going to have
is you're now going to have people in

01:06:11.600 --> 01:06:13.117
the other direction. You're going
to have people who claim that they

01:06:13.200 --> 01:06:17.117
supported Trump all along who
actually didn't. [laughter] >> Right.

01:06:17.200 --> 01:06:19.037
>> Right. >> So, it's going
to swing the other way.

01:06:19.120 --> 01:06:21.517
And by the way, Trump's not the only
part of this, but you know, he's just a

01:06:21.600 --> 01:06:24.157
convenient shortorthhand for, you know,
for a lot of this. Um, but you know,

01:06:24.240 --> 01:06:26.397
whatever it is, you'll you'll have
people who will say, "Well, I never

01:06:26.480 --> 01:06:29.517
supported DEI, right? Or I never
supported ESG or I never thought we

01:06:29.600 --> 01:06:32.477
should have canceled that person, right?"
Where of course they were fullon

01:06:32.560 --> 01:06:35.757
a part of the mob like you know, kind of
at that moment. And so anyway, so you'll

01:06:35.840 --> 01:06:38.797
have preference falsification happening
in the other direction. And in his

01:06:38.880 --> 01:06:42.077
prediction, I think basically is you'll
end up with the same quote problem on

01:06:42.160 --> 01:06:46.157
the on the other side. Now, will that
happen here? I don't know. You know, how

01:06:46.240 --> 01:06:49.037
far is American society willing to go
any of these things? I don't know. But

01:06:49.120 --> 01:06:50.957
like there is some some question there.

01:06:51.040 --> 01:06:54.877
Um and then and then the other part of it
is okay, now you have this, you know,

01:06:54.960 --> 01:06:58.797
elite that is used to being in power
for the last decade. And and by the way,

01:06:58.880 --> 01:07:01.197
many of those people are still in power
and they're in very, you know, important

01:07:01.280 --> 01:07:03.517
positions. and the New York Times
is still the New York Times and Harvard is

01:07:03.600 --> 01:07:07.117
still Harvard and like those people
haven't changed like at all, right? Um

01:07:07.200 --> 01:07:09.997
and they, you know, they bureaucrats
in the government and you know, senior

01:07:10.080 --> 01:07:13.517
Democratic, you know, politicians and so
forth and and they're sitting there, you

01:07:13.600 --> 01:07:16.397
know, right now feeling like reality
has just smacked them hard in the face

01:07:16.480 --> 01:07:20.957
because they lost the election so badly,
but they're now going into a and

01:07:21.040 --> 01:07:24.157
specifically the Democratic party
is going into a civil war, right? and and

01:07:24.240 --> 01:07:27.277
and and and that form of the civil
war is completely predictable and it's

01:07:27.360 --> 01:07:30.717
exactly what's happening which is half
of them are saying we need to go back to

01:07:30.800 --> 01:07:34.477
the center. We need to dradicalize
because we've lost the people. We've

01:07:34.560 --> 01:07:37.117
lost that the people in the middle
and so we need to go back to the middle in

01:07:37.200 --> 01:07:40.957
order to be able to get 50% plus one
in an election. Right? And then the other

01:07:41.040 --> 01:07:43.277
half of them are saying no, we weren't
true to our principles. We were too

01:07:43.360 --> 01:07:46.077
weak. We were too soft. You know,
we must become more revolutionary. We must

01:07:46.160 --> 01:07:48.477
double down and we must, you know,
celebrate, you know, murders in the

01:07:48.560 --> 01:07:50.237
street of health insurance executives.

01:07:50.320 --> 01:07:53.597
And that's and that that right now is like
a real fight. If I could tell you a

01:07:53.680 --> 01:07:57.917
little personal story that breaks
my heart a little bit. There's a there's a

01:07:58.000 --> 01:08:00.397
professor historian I won't say who who

01:08:00.480 --> 01:08:02.637
I admire deeply love his work. He's a

01:08:02.720 --> 01:08:06.717
kind of a heretical thinker and we were

01:08:06.800 --> 01:08:08.957
talking about having a podcast or doing

01:08:09.040 --> 01:08:12.717
a podcast and he eventually said that

01:08:12.800 --> 01:08:14.637
you know what at this time given your

01:08:14.720 --> 01:08:16.557
guest list

01:08:16.640 --> 01:08:20.237
I just don't want the headache of

01:08:20.320 --> 01:08:22.877
being in the faculty meetings in my

01:08:22.960 --> 01:08:25.757
particular institution and I asked who

01:08:25.840 --> 01:08:27.917
are the particular figures in this guest

01:08:28.000 --> 01:08:32.397
list. He said Trump and the second one

01:08:32.480 --> 01:08:34.477
he said that you announced your interest

01:08:34.560 --> 01:08:37.997
to talk to Vladimir Putin. So I just

01:08:38.080 --> 01:08:41.997
don't want the headache.
Now I I fully believe he

01:08:42.080 --> 01:08:43.597
uh it would surprise a lot of people if

01:08:43.680 --> 01:08:46.317
I said who it is. But you know this is a

01:08:46.400 --> 01:08:49.357
person who's not bothered by the uh the

01:08:49.440 --> 01:08:51.357
guest list. And I should also say that

01:08:51.440 --> 01:08:54.957
80 plus% of the guest list is leftwing.

01:08:55.040 --> 01:08:59.197
Okay. Uh, nevertheless,
he just doesn't want the

01:08:59.280 --> 01:09:03.037
headache. And that speaks to the the thing
that you've kind of mentioned that

01:09:03.120 --> 01:09:04.637
you just don't don't want the headache.

01:09:04.720 --> 01:09:08.957
You just want to just have a pleasant
morning with some coffee and talk to

01:09:09.040 --> 01:09:12.397
your fellow professors. And I think
a lot of people are feeling that in

01:09:12.480 --> 01:09:14.157
universities and in other contexts in

01:09:14.240 --> 01:09:17.837
tech companies. And I wonder if that

01:09:17.920 --> 01:09:20.637
shifts, how quickly that shifts. And

01:09:20.720 --> 01:09:22.877
there the percentages you mentioned 20

01:09:22.960 --> 01:09:26.317
60 matters. and the and the the contents

01:09:26.400 --> 01:09:30.317
of the private groups matters and the
dynamics of how that shifts matters

01:09:30.400 --> 01:09:34.397
because it's very possible nothing
really changes in universities and in

01:09:34.480 --> 01:09:36.637
major tech companies. We're just there's

01:09:36.720 --> 01:09:39.837
a kind of um excitement right now for

01:09:39.920 --> 01:09:44.157
potential revolution
and these new ideas, this new

01:09:44.240 --> 01:09:46.477
vibes to reverberate through these

01:09:46.560 --> 01:09:47.677
companies, universities, but it's

01:09:47.760 --> 01:09:51.677
possible the the the wall will hold.

01:09:51.760 --> 01:09:55.117
>> Yeah. So, he's a friend of yours.
I respect that you don't want to name him.

01:09:55.200 --> 01:09:57.597
I also respect you don't want to beat
on him. So, I would like to beat on him on

01:09:57.680 --> 01:10:00.797
your behalf. >> Um, does he have tenure?

01:10:00.880 --> 01:10:04.397
>> Yes. >> He should use it.

01:10:04.480 --> 01:10:08.877
>> So, this is the thing, right?
This is the ultimate indictment of the

01:10:08.960 --> 01:10:11.837
corruption and the rot at the heart
of our education system, uh, at the heart

01:10:11.920 --> 01:10:14.317
of these universities. And it's, by the
way, it's like across the board. It's

01:10:14.400 --> 01:10:16.397
like all the all the top universities.

01:10:16.480 --> 01:10:20.077
It's like because the the siren song
for right what it's been for 70 years

01:10:20.160 --> 01:10:23.357
whatever the tenure system peer
reviewview system tenure system um which

01:10:23.440 --> 01:10:27.117
is like yeah you work your butt off
as an academic to get a professorship and

01:10:27.200 --> 01:10:29.837
then to get tenure because then you can

01:10:29.920 --> 01:10:35.037
say what you actually think right then
you can do your work and your research

01:10:35.120 --> 01:10:36.637
and your speaking and your teaching

01:10:36.720 --> 01:10:39.917
without fear of being fired right

01:10:40.000 --> 01:10:42.957
without fear of being canceled. um like

01:10:43.040 --> 01:10:45.517
academic freedom. I mean, think of the

01:10:45.600 --> 01:10:47.597
term academic freedom and then think of

01:10:47.680 --> 01:10:50.157
what these people have done to it. Like

01:10:50.240 --> 01:10:54.637
it's gone. Like that entire thing was

01:10:54.720 --> 01:10:58.157
fake and is completely rotten. And these

01:10:58.240 --> 01:11:03.917
people are completely completely
giving up the entire moral

01:11:04.000 --> 01:11:04.957
foundation of the system that's been

01:11:05.040 --> 01:11:06.877
built for them, which by the way is paid

01:11:06.960 --> 01:11:11.837
for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.

01:11:11.920 --> 01:11:16.077
What's the what's the inkling of hope
in this? Like what this particular person

01:11:16.160 --> 01:11:20.957
and others who hear this what can give
them strength, inspiration and courage.

01:11:21.040 --> 01:11:23.997
>> Um that the population at large is
going to realize the corruption in their

01:11:24.080 --> 01:11:26.637
industry and it's going
to withdraw the funding.

01:11:26.720 --> 01:11:30.077
>> It's okay. So desperation. [laughter]
>> No, no, no, no, no. Think about what

01:11:30.160 --> 01:11:32.797
happens next. Okay. So let's go let's go
through it. So the the the universities

01:11:32.880 --> 01:11:35.837
the univers the universities are funded
by four primary sources of federal

01:11:35.920 --> 01:11:38.717
funding. the the big one is the federal
student loan program which is you know

01:11:38.800 --> 01:11:41.597
in the many trillions of dollars at this
point and and only spiraling you know

01:11:41.680 --> 01:11:45.197
way faster than than inflation. Um
that's number one. Number two is federal

01:11:45.280 --> 01:11:49.677
research funding which is also very
large and you probably know that um um

01:11:49.760 --> 01:11:53.037
when a scientist at the university gets
a research grant the university ras as

01:11:53.120 --> 01:11:56.717
much as 70% of the money
uh for central uses.

01:11:56.800 --> 01:11:59.197
>> Yeah. >> Uh number three
is tax exemption at the

01:11:59.280 --> 01:12:01.997
operating level which is based
on the idea that these are nonprofit

01:12:02.080 --> 01:12:05.597
institutions as opposed to let's
say political institutions.

01:12:05.680 --> 01:12:09.677
Um and then number four is tax
exemptions at the endowment level. Um

01:12:09.760 --> 01:12:14.797
you know which is the financial buffer
that these places have. Um hypothet

01:12:14.880 --> 01:12:17.757
anybody who's been close to a university
budget will basically see that what

01:12:17.840 --> 01:12:20.717
would happen if you withdrew those
sources of federal taxpayer money and

01:12:20.800 --> 01:12:21.997
then for the state schools the state

01:12:22.080 --> 01:12:24.237
money they they instantly go bankrupt

01:12:24.320 --> 01:12:29.037
and then you could rebuild.
Then you could rebuild because the

01:12:29.120 --> 01:12:31.277
problem right now, you know, like
the folks at University of Austin are like

01:12:31.360 --> 01:12:33.677
mounting a very valiant effort and I
hope that they succeed and I'm I'm

01:12:33.760 --> 01:12:37.117
cheering for them. The problem is you're
you're now inserting you suppose suppose

01:12:37.200 --> 01:12:39.917
you and I want to start a new university
and we want to hire all the freethinking

01:12:40.000 --> 01:12:43.037
professors and we want to have the place
that fixes all this practically speaking

01:12:43.120 --> 01:12:46.637
we can't do it because we can't get
access to that money even the most

01:12:46.720 --> 01:12:49.357
direct reason we can't get access
to that money uh we can't get access to

01:12:49.440 --> 01:12:53.277
federal student funding do you know how
universities are accredited uh for the

01:12:53.360 --> 01:12:57.517
purpose of getting access to federal
student funding federal student loans

01:12:57.600 --> 01:13:01.197
they're accredited by the government
but not directly indirectly they're not

01:13:01.280 --> 01:13:03.917
accredited by the department
of education instead what happens is the

01:13:04.000 --> 01:13:07.437
Department of Education accredits
accreditation bureaus that are

01:13:07.520 --> 01:13:09.437
nonprofits that do the accreditation.

01:13:09.520 --> 01:13:13.277
Guess what the composition of the
accreditation bureaus is? The existing

01:13:13.360 --> 01:13:16.797
universities. They are
in complete control. The

01:13:16.880 --> 01:13:20.637
incumbents are in complete control
as to who gets um as to who gets access to

01:13:20.720 --> 01:13:23.277
federal student loan money. Guess how
enthusiastic they are about accrediting

01:13:23.360 --> 01:13:26.237
a new university.

01:13:26.320 --> 01:13:30.957
Right? And so we have a government-f
funed and supported cartel um that has

01:13:31.040 --> 01:13:34.397
gone I mean it's just obvious now it's
just gone like sideways in basically any

01:13:34.480 --> 01:13:37.037
possible way it could go sideways
including I mean literally as you know

01:13:37.120 --> 01:13:39.677
students getting beaten up in the on
campus for being you know of the wrong

01:13:39.760 --> 01:13:43.197
religion. I just they're just wrong in
every possible way at this point. Um and

01:13:43.280 --> 01:13:47.357
and they're it's all in the federal
taxpayer back. Um and there is no way I

01:13:47.440 --> 01:13:50.557
mean I my opinion there is no way to fix
these things without without replacing

01:13:50.640 --> 01:13:53.917
them. Um and and there's no way
to replace them without letting them fail.

01:13:54.000 --> 01:13:57.277
And by the way, it's like everything
else in life. I mean, in a sense, this

01:13:57.360 --> 01:14:00.557
is like the most obvious conclusion
of all time, which is what happens in in

01:14:00.640 --> 01:14:04.077
the business world when a company does
a bad job is they go bankrupt and another

01:14:04.160 --> 01:14:05.437
another company takes its place, right?

01:14:05.520 --> 01:14:06.797
And that that's how you get progress.

01:14:06.880 --> 01:14:10.157
Um, and of course below that is what
happens is this is the process of

01:14:10.240 --> 01:14:12.797
evolution, right? Why why does anything
ever get better? Because things are

01:14:12.880 --> 01:14:15.357
tested and tried and then you you know
the things that the things that are good

01:14:15.440 --> 01:14:18.797
survive. And so these places have cut
themselves off. they've been allowed to

01:14:18.880 --> 01:14:22.317
cut themselves off from both from
evolution at the institutional level and

01:14:22.400 --> 01:14:24.397
evolution at the individual level as

01:14:24.480 --> 01:14:29.357
shown by the the the the just widespread
abuse of tenure. Um and so we we've just

01:14:29.440 --> 01:14:32.797
stalled out. We we built it we built
an oified system an oified centralized

01:14:32.880 --> 01:14:36.157
corrupt system.
We're surprised by the results.

01:14:36.240 --> 01:14:38.237
They are not fixable
in their current form.

01:14:38.320 --> 01:14:42.397
>> I disagree with you on that.
I have maybe it's grounded in hope that I

01:14:42.480 --> 01:14:46.157
believe you can revolutionize a system
from within because I do believe

01:14:46.240 --> 01:14:48.397
Stanford and MIT are important.

01:14:48.480 --> 01:14:52.557
>> Oh, but that logic doesn't follow
at all. That's underpants gnome logic.

01:14:52.640 --> 01:14:54.637
>> Underpants no gnome.
Can you explain what that means?

01:14:54.720 --> 01:14:57.597
>> Underpants nose logic. So, I just
started watching a key touchstone of

01:14:57.680 --> 01:15:00.797
American culture with my nine-year-old,
which of course is South Park.

01:15:00.880 --> 01:15:02.317
>> Yes. >> And there is >> Wow.

01:15:02.400 --> 01:15:05.117
>> And there is a which by the way is
a little aggressive for a nine-year-old.

01:15:05.200 --> 01:15:07.757
>> Very aggressive,
>> but but he likes it. So, [laughter]

01:15:07.840 --> 01:15:11.517
he's learning all kinds of new words >>
and all kinds of new ideas. But yeah, go.

01:15:11.600 --> 01:15:13.757
>> I told I told him I said, "You're going
to hear words on here that you are not

01:15:13.840 --> 01:15:17.437
allowed to use." >> Right. >> Yes.
And I said, "Do you know how we

01:15:17.520 --> 01:15:18.717
have an agreement that we never lie to

01:15:18.800 --> 01:15:21.997
mommy?" [laughter]

01:15:22.080 --> 01:15:26.957
>> I said, "Not using a word that you
learn in here >> does not count as lying."

01:15:27.040 --> 01:15:29.357
>> Mhm. >> Wow.
>> Keep and keep that in mind.

01:15:29.440 --> 01:15:32.717
>> Orwellian red redefinition of lying.
But yes, go ahead. Of course, in the very

01:15:32.800 --> 01:15:35.357
opening episode, in the first in the
first 30 seconds, one of the one of the

01:15:35.440 --> 01:15:37.197
kids calls the other kid a dildo, right?

01:15:37.280 --> 01:15:39.357
We're off to the races. >> Yep.

01:15:39.440 --> 01:15:44.077
>> Daddy, what's a dildo?
>> Um, >> yep. [laughter]

01:15:44.160 --> 01:15:46.237
>> You know, sorry.
Sorry, son. I don't know.

01:15:46.320 --> 01:15:51.677
>> Yeah. >> Um, so, um,
uh, so famous episode of

01:15:51.760 --> 01:15:54.397
South Park, the underpants gnomes. And so
the the underpants gnome. So there's

01:15:54.480 --> 01:15:57.197
there's there's this rat. All the kids
basically realize that their underpants

01:15:57.280 --> 01:16:00.157
are going missing from their dresser
drawers. Somebody's stealing the

01:16:00.240 --> 01:16:02.717
underpants. And it's just like, well,
who on earth would steal the underp the

01:16:02.800 --> 01:16:05.357
underpants? And it turns out
it's the underpants gnomes.

01:16:05.440 --> 01:16:07.837
>> And it turns out the underpants gnomes
have come to town and they've got this

01:16:07.920 --> 01:16:10.157
little underground warrant of tunnels
and storage places for all the

01:16:10.240 --> 01:16:13.037
underpants. And so they go out at night,
they steal the underpants. And the kids

01:16:13.120 --> 01:16:15.437
discover that, you know, the underpants
gnomes and they're, you know, what what

01:16:15.520 --> 01:16:18.157
are you doing? Like what what's what's
the point of this? And so the underpants

01:16:18.240 --> 01:16:21.757
gnomes present their their master plan,
which is a three-part plan, which is

01:16:21.840 --> 01:16:25.677
step one, uh, collect underpants.
Step three, profit.

01:16:25.760 --> 01:16:29.357
>> Yeah. >> Step two, question mark.

01:16:29.440 --> 01:16:32.557
>> Yeah. So you just you just
proposed the underpants gnome.

01:16:32.640 --> 01:16:34.317
>> Yeah. >> Which is very
common in politics. So so

01:16:34.400 --> 01:16:37.117
the form of this in politics
is we must do something.

01:16:37.200 --> 01:16:41.757
>> Yeah. >> This is something
therefore we must do this.

01:16:41.840 --> 01:16:44.717
>> But there's no causal logic chain
in there at all to expect that that's

01:16:44.800 --> 01:16:47.597
actually going to succeed >> because
there's no reason to believe that it is.

01:16:47.680 --> 01:16:51.277
>> Yeah. It's the same thing. But this
is what I hear all the time. And I'll I

01:16:51.360 --> 01:16:53.997
will let you talk as the host
of the show in a moment. But [laughter]

01:16:54.080 --> 01:16:56.557
>> u but the but I hear this all the time.

01:16:56.640 --> 01:16:59.357
I hear this I have friends who are on
these boards, right? um very involved in

01:16:59.440 --> 01:17:01.597
these places and I hear this all
the time which is like oh these are very

01:17:01.680 --> 01:17:04.477
important we must fix them and so

01:17:04.560 --> 01:17:09.757
therefore they are fixable >>
there's no logic chain there at all if

01:17:09.840 --> 01:17:14.157
there's that pressure that you described
in terms of cutting funding then you

01:17:14.240 --> 01:17:16.477
have the leverage to fire a lot of the

01:17:16.560 --> 01:17:18.477
administration and have new leadership

01:17:18.560 --> 01:17:23.037
that steps up that that uh aligns with

01:17:23.120 --> 01:17:27.357
this vision that things really need
to change at the heads of the universities

01:17:27.440 --> 01:17:29.917
and They put students and faculty

01:17:30.000 --> 01:17:32.397
primary fire a lot of the administration

01:17:32.480 --> 01:17:35.837
and realign and reinvigorate this idea

01:17:35.920 --> 01:17:37.917
of freedom of thought and intellectual

01:17:38.000 --> 01:17:40.637
freedom. I mean I don't because there is

01:17:40.720 --> 01:17:45.197
already a framework of of great
institutions that's there and the way

01:17:45.280 --> 01:17:48.957
they talk about what it means to be
a great institution is aligned with this

01:17:49.040 --> 01:17:51.277
very idea that you're talking about.

01:17:51.360 --> 01:17:53.357
It's this meaning like intellectual

01:17:53.440 --> 01:17:59.437
freedom the idea of tenure right the on
the surface it's aligned underneath it's

01:17:59.520 --> 01:18:01.677
become corrupted >> if we
say free speech and academic

01:18:01.760 --> 01:18:04.637
freedom often enough sooner or later
these tenured professors will get brave

01:18:04.720 --> 01:18:06.237
>> well do you think that universities are

01:18:06.320 --> 01:18:08.637
fundamentally broken okay so how do you

01:18:08.720 --> 01:18:11.677
fix it how do you have institutions for

01:18:11.760 --> 01:18:14.157
educating 20-year-olds

01:18:14.240 --> 01:18:17.677
and institutions that host

01:18:17.760 --> 01:18:20.237
uh researchers that have the freedom to

01:18:20.320 --> 01:18:25.517
do epic [__] like research type
[__] that's outside the scopes of R&D

01:18:25.600 --> 01:18:28.797
departments and inside companies. So, how
do you create an institution like that?

01:18:28.880 --> 01:18:32.077
>> How do you create a good restaurant
when the one down the street sucks,

01:18:32.160 --> 01:18:34.157
>> right? You uh invent something new.

01:18:34.240 --> 01:18:37.117
>> You open a new restaurant. >> Yeah.

01:18:37.200 --> 01:18:39.917
>> Like, how often in your life have
you experienced a restaurant that's just

01:18:40.000 --> 01:18:42.797
absolutely horrible and it's poisoning
all of its customers and the food tastes

01:18:42.880 --> 01:18:46.317
terrible and then three years later
you go back and it's fantastic.

01:18:46.400 --> 01:18:48.637
>> Charlie Mer actually had the great
the best comment on this. Great investor,

01:18:48.720 --> 01:18:51.437
Charlie Mer, the great comment he always
once asked. He's like, you know, he's,

01:18:51.520 --> 01:18:54.157
you know, General Electric was going
through all these challenges and he was

01:18:54.240 --> 01:18:56.557
asked at a Q&A. He said, "How would you
fix the culture of General Electric?"

01:18:56.640 --> 01:18:59.037
And he said, "Fix the culture of General
Electric?" He said, "I couldn't even fix

01:18:59.120 --> 01:19:02.717
the culture at a restaurant.
[laughter and gasps]

01:19:02.800 --> 01:19:05.517
Like, it's insane. Like,
obviously you can't do it."

01:19:05.600 --> 01:19:08.717
>> Nobody in business
thinks you can do that. Like,

01:19:08.800 --> 01:19:12.477
it's impossible. Like, it's not. It's
Now, now look, having said all that, I

01:19:12.560 --> 01:19:14.797
should also express this because I
have a lot of friends who work at these

01:19:14.880 --> 01:19:18.237
places and and um and are involved
in various attempts to fix these. I hope

01:19:18.320 --> 01:19:21.837
that I'm wrong. I would love to be wrong.
I would love for the I would love

01:19:21.920 --> 01:19:25.037
for the underpants gnome step two to be
something clear and straightforward

01:19:25.120 --> 01:19:27.597
>> that they can figure out how to do.
I would love to love to fix it. I'd love

01:19:27.680 --> 01:19:30.397
to see them come back to their spoken
principles. I I think that'd be great.

01:19:30.480 --> 01:19:33.757
I'd love to see the professors with
tenure get bravery. Um I would love to

01:19:33.840 --> 01:19:37.357
see I mean it would be fantastic. Um you
know my partner and I have done like a

01:19:37.440 --> 01:19:38.557
lot of public speaking on this topic.

01:19:38.640 --> 01:19:42.317
It's it's been intended to not just be
harsh but also be like okay like these

01:19:42.400 --> 01:19:45.517
these challenges have to be confronted
directly. By the way, let me also say

01:19:45.600 --> 01:19:49.197
something positive. you know, especially
post October 7th, there are a bunch of

01:19:49.280 --> 01:19:52.477
very smart people who are major donors
and board members of these institutions

01:19:52.560 --> 01:19:55.757
like Mark Rowan, you know, who are
really coming in trying to, you know, I

01:19:55.840 --> 01:19:58.397
think legitimately trying trying to fix
these places. I have a friend on the

01:19:58.480 --> 01:20:01.037
executive committee at one of the top
technical universities. He's working

01:20:01.120 --> 01:20:05.597
overtime to try to do this. Man,
I hope they can figure it out. Um,

01:20:05.680 --> 01:20:08.557
but I I but the counter question would
just be like, do you see it actually

01:20:08.640 --> 01:20:12.637
happening at a single one of these places?
I I'm a person that believes in

01:20:12.720 --> 01:20:16.397
leadership. If you have
the right leadership,

01:20:16.480 --> 01:20:18.477
>> the whole system can be changed.

01:20:18.560 --> 01:20:19.837
>> So here's a question
for your friend who

01:20:19.920 --> 01:20:23.117
has tenure at one of these places,
which is who runs his university.

01:20:23.200 --> 01:20:25.037
>> I think you know,
you know who I think runs it.

01:20:25.120 --> 01:20:28.077
>> Yeah. >> Whoever
the [__] says they run it.

01:20:28.160 --> 01:20:31.837
That's what great leadership is. Like
a president has that power. President of

01:20:31.920 --> 01:20:35.117
university has the leverage because
they can mouth off like Elon can.

01:20:35.200 --> 01:20:36.557
>> Can they fire the professors?

01:20:36.640 --> 01:20:40.397
>> They can fire them through being
vocal publicly. Yes. Can they fire the

01:20:40.480 --> 01:20:43.037
professors? >> What are you
talking about? Legally? No,

01:20:43.120 --> 01:20:44.477
they cannot fire the professors.

01:20:44.560 --> 01:20:45.757
>> Then we know who runs the university.

01:20:45.840 --> 01:20:48.237
>> The professors. >> Yeah,
the professors. The professors and

01:20:48.320 --> 01:20:50.797
the students. The professors and the
feral students. Then they're of course

01:20:50.880 --> 01:20:53.597
in a radicalization feedback
cycle driving each other crazy.

01:20:53.680 --> 01:20:56.317
>> The feral students. Yeah, the feral
students. Yeah, the feral students. What

01:20:56.400 --> 01:20:59.197
happens when you're put in charge
of of your bureaucracy where the where the

01:20:59.280 --> 01:21:02.797
thing that the bureaucracy knows
is that they can outlast you.

01:21:02.880 --> 01:21:05.437
>> The thing that the tenure professors
at all these places know is it doesn't

01:21:05.520 --> 01:21:08.557
matter who the president is because they
can outlast them. because they cannot

01:21:08.640 --> 01:21:11.517
get fired. And by the way, it's
the same thing that bureaucrats in in the

01:21:11.600 --> 01:21:13.917
government know. It's the same thing
that the bureaucrats in the Department

01:21:14.000 --> 01:21:17.677
of Education know. They know the exact
same thing. They they can outlast you.

01:21:17.760 --> 01:21:20.397
It's I mean, it's the whole thing
that it's the resistance. Like they can be

01:21:20.480 --> 01:21:23.437
the resistance. They can just sit
there and resist, which is what they do.

01:21:23.520 --> 01:21:25.837
They're not fireable. >> That's
definitely a crisis that needs to

01:21:25.920 --> 01:21:29.277
be solved. That's a huge problem.
And I also don't like that I'm defending

01:21:29.360 --> 01:21:31.677
academia here. I I agree with you that

01:21:31.760 --> 01:21:36.077
the situation is dire and uh but I just

01:21:36.160 --> 01:21:39.517
think that institutions are important
and I should also add context since

01:21:39.600 --> 01:21:40.957
you've been grilling me a little bit.

01:21:41.040 --> 01:21:45.677
You were using restaurants as an analogy
and earlier offline in this conversation

01:21:45.760 --> 01:21:48.957
you said the Dairy Queen is a great
restaurant. So let's let's say Dairy

01:21:49.040 --> 01:21:50.717
Queen is a great restaurant.
Let the listener take

01:21:50.800 --> 01:21:52.317
>> I said Dairy Queen
is the best restaurant.

01:21:52.400 --> 01:21:55.597
>> The best restaurant. There [laughter]
you go. So everything that Mark Andrea

01:21:55.680 --> 01:21:58.877
is saying today that >> you should
go order a blizzard. It's one

01:21:58.960 --> 01:22:00.797
one day you should walk down
there and order a Blizzard.

01:22:00.880 --> 01:22:03.197
>> Yeah, >> they can get
like 4,000 calories in a cup.

01:22:03.280 --> 01:22:04.797
>> They can. And they're delicious.

01:22:04.880 --> 01:22:07.357
>> Amazing. They are they are truly
delicious. And they'll put they'll put

01:22:07.440 --> 01:22:09.117
anything in there you want. >> All right.

01:22:09.200 --> 01:22:11.917
>> Okay. So but anyway, let me just
close by saying look I I my friends in

01:22:12.000 --> 01:22:14.797
university system I would just say look
like I this is the challenge. Like I

01:22:14.880 --> 01:22:17.757
would just I would just pose this as
the challenge. Like to me like this is

01:22:17.840 --> 01:22:21.357
having had a lot of these conversations
like this is the bar in my view. This is

01:22:21.440 --> 01:22:23.677
the conversation that actually has
to happen. this is the bar that actually

01:22:23.760 --> 01:22:26.637
has to be hit. These problems need
to be confronted directly because I think

01:22:26.720 --> 01:22:29.437
there's just I think there's been way
too much I mean I'm actually worried

01:22:29.520 --> 01:22:31.917
kind of on the other side there's too
much happy talk in these conversations.

01:22:32.000 --> 01:22:34.237
Mhm. >> I think the taxpayers
do not understand

01:22:34.320 --> 01:22:37.597
this level of crisis. And I think if the
taxpayers come to understand it, I think

01:22:37.680 --> 01:22:42.237
the funding evaporates. And so I I think
the the fuse is going through, you know,

01:22:42.320 --> 01:22:45.117
no fault of any of ours, but like the fuse
is going and there's some window of

01:22:45.200 --> 01:22:49.197
time here uh to fix this and address
it and justify the money because it just

01:22:49.280 --> 01:22:54.047
normal taxpayers sitting in normal towns
in normal jobs are not going to tolerate

01:22:54.130 --> 01:22:55.837
[clears throat] this
for for that much longer.

01:22:55.920 --> 01:22:57.997
>> You've mentioned
censorship a few times.

01:22:58.080 --> 01:23:00.157
Let us if we can go deep into the

01:23:00.240 --> 01:23:02.717
darkness of the past and how censorship

01:23:02.800 --> 01:23:06.317
mechanism was used. So you are a good

01:23:06.400 --> 01:23:07.597
person to speak about the history of

01:23:07.680 --> 01:23:09.917
this because you were there uh on the

01:23:10.000 --> 01:23:13.757
ground floor in uh 2013ish

01:23:13.840 --> 01:23:17.277
Facebook. I I heard that uh you were

01:23:17.360 --> 01:23:20.877
there when they invented or maybe uh uh

01:23:20.960 --> 01:23:23.677
developed the term hate speech in the

01:23:23.760 --> 01:23:27.277
context of censorship of on social

01:23:27.360 --> 01:23:31.997
media. So uh take me to through
that history if you can the use of uh

01:23:32.080 --> 01:23:35.967
censorship. >> So I was there
on the ground floor in 1993.

01:23:36.050 --> 01:23:39.277
[laughter] >> There's multiple
floors to this building apparently.

01:23:39.360 --> 01:23:42.157
>> There are. >> Yeah.
>> So I got the first ask to implement

01:23:42.240 --> 01:23:45.837
censorship on the internet.
um which was in the web browser.

01:23:45.920 --> 01:23:49.117
>> That is fascinating. >> Yeah.
Yeah. 19 actually 1982. Uh I was

01:23:49.200 --> 01:23:51.117
asked to implement a nudity filter.

01:23:51.200 --> 01:23:53.437
>> Did you have the courage
to speak up back then?

01:23:53.520 --> 01:23:55.117
>> I I did not have
any problem speaking up

01:23:55.200 --> 01:23:58.077
back then. Um I was making $625 an hour.

01:23:58.160 --> 01:24:02.077
Um I did not have a lot to lose. Um no,
I was asked at the time and and look, I

01:24:02.160 --> 01:24:04.877
you know, legitimate, you know, in some
sense a legitimate request which is

01:24:04.960 --> 01:24:07.357
working on a on a research project
actually funded by the federal

01:24:07.440 --> 01:24:10.717
government at a public university. So,
you know, I don't think my boss was like

01:24:10.800 --> 01:24:13.757
in any way out of line, but it was like,
yeah, like this this web browser thing

01:24:13.840 --> 01:24:16.397
is great, but like could it just make
sure to not have any photos of naked

01:24:16.480 --> 01:24:19.357
people that show up, but if you
think about this for a second as a

01:24:19.440 --> 01:24:22.957
technologist, I had an issue, which
is this was like pre-imageet, right? And

01:24:23.040 --> 01:24:26.397
so, I had a brief period where I
tried to imagine an algorithm um that I

01:24:26.480 --> 01:24:30.717
referred to as the breast detection
algorithm um [laughter] that I was going

01:24:30.800 --> 01:24:34.397
to have to design. And then apparently
a variety of other apparently body parts

01:24:34.480 --> 01:24:35.837
people are also sensitive about.

01:24:35.920 --> 01:24:38.877
>> Yeah. And um and then I I
politely declined to do this

01:24:38.960 --> 01:24:41.117
>> for for just the the
technical difficulties of it.

01:24:41.200 --> 01:24:42.877
>> Well, number one, I didn't I actually
didn't know how to do it. But number

01:24:42.960 --> 01:24:45.197
two, I was just like, "No, I'm not I'm
not building I'm just not building a

01:24:45.280 --> 01:24:48.797
censorship engine. Like I'm a you know,
I'm just not doing it." Um and and in

01:24:48.880 --> 01:24:51.037
those days it was, you know, in those
days the internet generally was, you

01:24:51.120 --> 01:24:54.957
know, free fire zone for everything.
It was actually interesting sort of pre93

01:24:55.040 --> 01:24:56.717
the internet was such a specific niche

01:24:56.800 --> 01:24:58.957
community like it was like the million

01:24:59.040 --> 01:25:02.317
kind of highest IQ nerds in the world.

01:25:02.400 --> 01:25:05.837
Um and so it actually like didn't
really have a lot of you know issues. the

01:25:05.920 --> 01:25:08.637
people were like super interested
in talking about like astrophysics and not

01:25:08.720 --> 01:25:11.917
very interested in you know even
politics at that at that time so there

01:25:12.000 --> 01:25:14.877
really was not an issue there but um
yeah I didn't I didn't want to start the

01:25:14.960 --> 01:25:18.957
process um so I think the way to think
about this so first of all um you know

01:25:19.040 --> 01:25:21.757
yeah so I was involved in this at Facebook
every step by the way I've been

01:25:21.840 --> 01:25:24.077
involved with this at Facebook every
step of the way I joined the board there

01:25:24.160 --> 01:25:27.997
in 2007 so I saw I've seen everything
in the last you know almost 20 years um

01:25:28.080 --> 01:25:30.637
every step of the way but also I've been
involved in most of the other companies

01:25:30.720 --> 01:25:34.077
over time so I was an angel investor in
Twitter knew them really well um we were

01:25:34.160 --> 01:25:36.077
the founding investor in subst stack.

01:25:36.160 --> 01:25:40.797
I'm part of the Elon takeover of Twitter
with X. I was an angel at LinkedIn. So I

01:25:40.880 --> 01:25:43.517
I' I've been in these we were the founder
of Pinterest. We were one of the

01:25:43.600 --> 01:25:47.197
one of the main investors there.
Reddit um as well. And I was having these

01:25:47.280 --> 01:25:49.597
conversations with all these guys
all the way through. So as much talk

01:25:49.680 --> 01:25:52.157
specifically about Facebook, but I
can just tell you like the the general

01:25:52.240 --> 01:25:55.037
pattern and for quite a while it
was kind of all the same across these

01:25:55.120 --> 01:25:59.277
companies. Um yeah. So, so basically
the way to think about this that the the

01:25:59.360 --> 01:26:03.117
true kind of nuanced view of this is
that there is practically speaking no

01:26:03.200 --> 01:26:07.037
internet service that can have zero
censorship. Um, and and by the way that

01:26:07.120 --> 01:26:10.317
also mirrors there is no country
that actually has un limited free speech

01:26:10.400 --> 01:26:15.437
either. The US first amendment actually
has 12 or 13 formal carveouts from the

01:26:15.520 --> 01:26:19.037
Supreme Court over time. You know,
so incitement to violence and terrorist

01:26:19.120 --> 01:26:22.877
recruitment and child abuse and so you
know, child pornography and so forth are

01:26:22.960 --> 01:26:26.717
like they're not covered by the first
amendment. Um, and just practically

01:26:26.800 --> 01:26:28.877
speaking, if you and I are going
to start an internet company and have a

01:26:28.960 --> 01:26:31.677
service, we can't have that stuff
either, right? Cuz it's illegal or it

01:26:31.760 --> 01:26:35.277
will just clearly, you know, destroy the
whole thing. So, you you're always going

01:26:35.360 --> 01:26:38.397
to have a censorship engine. I mean,
hopefully it's not actually in the

01:26:38.480 --> 01:26:40.957
browser, but like you're going to have
it for sure at the level of an of an

01:26:41.040 --> 01:26:44.797
internet service. And but then what
happens is now you have now you have a

01:26:44.880 --> 01:26:48.797
machine, right? Now, now you have
a system where you can put in rules saying

01:26:48.880 --> 01:26:51.197
we allow this, we don't allow that. You

01:26:51.280 --> 01:26:53.357
have enforcement, you have consequences,

01:26:53.440 --> 01:26:55.917
right? Um and once that system is in

01:26:56.000 --> 01:27:00.717
place like it becomes the ring of power
right which is like okay now anybody in

01:27:00.800 --> 01:27:03.677
that company or anybody associated
with that company or anybody who wants to

01:27:03.760 --> 01:27:06.797
pressure that company will just start to
say okay you should use that machine for

01:27:06.880 --> 01:27:10.797
more than just terrorist recruitment and
child pornography you should use it for

01:27:10.880 --> 01:27:13.997
XYZ um and basically that transition

01:27:14.080 --> 01:27:18.637
happened call it 2012 2013 is is when
there was this like very very kind of

01:27:18.720 --> 01:27:22.317
rapid pivot I think the kickoff to it
for some reason was this it was the

01:27:22.400 --> 01:27:26.637
beginning of the second Obama term
Um I think it also coincided with the

01:27:26.720 --> 01:27:30.317
sort of arrival of the first kind
of super woke kids into these into these

01:27:30.400 --> 01:27:34.397
schools. Um you know that kind of you
know it's the kids that were in school

01:27:34.480 --> 01:27:37.517
between like you know for the Iraq war
and then the global financial crisis and

01:27:37.600 --> 01:27:39.597
like they came out like super
radicalized. They came into these

01:27:39.680 --> 01:27:42.477
companies and they immediately started
mounting these social crusades to ban

01:27:42.560 --> 01:27:46.477
and censor uh lots of things. And then
you know quite frankly the Democratic

01:27:46.560 --> 01:27:49.117
party figured this out. Um and they
figured out that these companies were

01:27:49.200 --> 01:27:51.917
you know very subject to being
controlled and they and the you know the

01:27:52.000 --> 01:27:54.957
executive teams and boards of directors
are almost all Democrats and you know

01:27:55.040 --> 01:27:57.837
there's tremendous circulation.
A lot of Obama people from the first term

01:27:57.920 --> 01:28:01.197
actually came and worked in these
companies and a lot of FBI people and

01:28:01.280 --> 01:28:03.517
other you know law enforcement
intelligence people came in and worked

01:28:03.600 --> 01:28:07.517
and they're all dem you know all
Democrats for that set. Um and so they

01:28:07.600 --> 01:28:11.437
just you know the the ring of power
was lying on the table. it had been built

01:28:11.520 --> 01:28:15.917
and they, you know, picked it up and put
it on and then they just ran. And the

01:28:16.000 --> 01:28:19.277
original discussions were basically
always on two topics. It was hate speech

01:28:19.360 --> 01:28:23.917
and misinformation. Uh, hate speech
was the original one. Um, and the hate

01:28:24.000 --> 01:28:26.957
speech conversation started exactly like
you'd expect, which is we can't have the

01:28:27.040 --> 01:28:29.277
n-word. And which the answer is fair

01:28:29.360 --> 01:28:34.157
enough, let's not have the n-word. Okay,
now we've set a precedent, right? And

01:28:34.240 --> 01:28:36.957
then the and then and Jordan Peterson
has talked a lot lot about this. the

01:28:37.040 --> 01:28:40.637
definition of hate speech ended up being
things that make people uncomfortable,

01:28:40.720 --> 01:28:43.277
right? So, we can't have things that make,
you know, people uncomfortable. I

01:28:43.360 --> 01:28:46.317
of course, you know, people like me that
are disagreeable raise their hands and

01:28:46.400 --> 01:28:50.077
say, "Well, that idea right there makes
me uncomfortable, but of course that

01:28:50.160 --> 01:28:51.437
doesn't count as hate speech, right?"

01:28:51.520 --> 01:28:56.237
So, you know, the ring of power is on one
hand and not not on the other hand.

01:28:56.320 --> 01:28:57.997
Um, and then basically that began this

01:28:58.080 --> 01:29:03.597
slide where it ended up being that, you
know, completely anodine. His point Mark

01:29:03.680 --> 01:29:06.397
has been making recently like completely
added comments that are completely

01:29:06.480 --> 01:29:09.517
legitimate on television or on the
Senate floor. All of a sudden our hate

01:29:09.600 --> 01:29:11.917
speech and can't be said online. So
that you know that the ring of power was

01:29:12.000 --> 01:29:14.397
wielded in grossly irresponsible ways.

01:29:14.480 --> 01:29:16.877
We could talk about all the stuff that
happened there. And then the other one

01:29:16.960 --> 01:29:20.637
was misinformation and that wasn't
as there was a little bit of that early on

01:29:20.720 --> 01:29:24.077
but of course that really kicked in
with with Trump. Um so so the hate speech

01:29:24.160 --> 01:29:28.317
stuff the hate speech stuff predated
Trump by like three or four years. Um

01:29:28.400 --> 01:29:31.997
the misinformation stuff was basically
it was a little bit later and it was a

01:29:32.080 --> 01:29:35.437
consequence of the Russia gate hoax.
Um and then that was you know a ring of

01:29:35.520 --> 01:29:39.837
power that was even more powerful right
because you know hate speech it's like

01:29:39.920 --> 01:29:43.277
okay at some point if some if something
offensive or not like at least you can

01:29:43.360 --> 01:29:46.477
have a question as to whether that's the
case but the problem with misinformation

01:29:46.560 --> 01:29:50.957
is like is it the truth or not you know
you know what do we know for 800 years

01:29:51.040 --> 01:29:53.757
or whatever western civilization
it's that you know there's only a few

01:29:53.840 --> 01:29:57.837
entities that can determine the truth
on every topic. you know, there's God, you

01:29:57.920 --> 01:30:00.457
know, there's the king. We don't
have those anymore. And the rest of

01:30:00.540 --> 01:30:03.677
[clears throat] us are all imperfect and
flawed. And so, the idea that any group

01:30:03.760 --> 01:30:06.557
of experts is going to sit around
the table and decide on the truth is, you

01:30:06.640 --> 01:30:09.837
know, deeply anti-western and deeply
authoritarian. And somehow the

01:30:09.920 --> 01:30:13.357
misinformation kind of crusade went
from the Russia gate hoax into just

01:30:13.440 --> 01:30:17.517
full-blown we're going to use that
weapon for whatever we want. And then

01:30:17.600 --> 01:30:19.917
and then of course then then
the culminating moment on that that really

01:30:20.000 --> 01:30:23.517
was the straw that broke the camel's
back was um we're going to censor all

01:30:23.600 --> 01:30:26.957
theories that the co virus might
have been manufactured in a lab as

01:30:27.040 --> 01:30:30.477
misinformation and and and then and inside
these companies like that was the

01:30:30.560 --> 01:30:33.437
point where people for the first time
this is like what three years ago if for

01:30:33.520 --> 01:30:37.037
the first time they were like that
was when it sunk in where it's just

01:30:37.120 --> 01:30:40.637
like okay this has spun completely out
of control. So anyway, that that that's

01:30:40.720 --> 01:30:44.557
how we got to where we are. And then
basically that spell lasted that that

01:30:44.640 --> 01:30:47.117
that complex existed and got expanded

01:30:47.200 --> 01:30:51.517
basically from call it 2013 to 2023.

01:30:51.600 --> 01:30:53.357
I think basically two things broke it.

01:30:53.440 --> 01:30:56.717
Um one is Substack and so and I'm super

01:30:56.800 --> 01:31:00.877
proud of those guys cuz they started
from scratch and declared right up front

01:31:00.960 --> 01:31:05.117
that they were going to be a a free
speech platform. Um and they came under

01:31:05.200 --> 01:31:09.197
intense pressure um including from the
press. um and you know they tried to

01:31:09.280 --> 01:31:11.997
just beat them to the ground and kill
them and intense pressure by the way

01:31:12.080 --> 01:31:15.197
from you know let's say certain of the
platform companies um you know basically

01:31:15.280 --> 01:31:18.717
threatening them um and they stood up
to it and you know sitting here today they

01:31:18.800 --> 01:31:21.757
have the widest spectrum of of speech
and and and conversation you know

01:31:21.840 --> 01:31:24.877
anywhere on planet earth and they've
done a great job and it's worked by the

01:31:24.960 --> 01:31:28.717
way it's great uh and then obviously
Elon uh you know with X was the the you

01:31:28.800 --> 01:31:32.237
know the hammer blow um and then I the
third one now was what Mark is doing at

01:31:32.320 --> 01:31:36.477
Facebook >> and there's
also like singular moments I

01:31:36.560 --> 01:31:39.197
think you've spoken about this which uh

01:31:39.280 --> 01:31:43.117
like John Stewart going on Steven Coar

01:31:43.200 --> 01:31:45.597
and talking about the lab leak theory.

01:31:45.680 --> 01:31:47.997
>> Yes. >> I just there's
certain moments that just

01:31:48.080 --> 01:31:53.997
kind of shake everybody up. The right
person the right time just it's a wakeup

01:31:54.080 --> 01:31:56.877
call. >> So that there
and I will tell you like

01:31:56.960 --> 01:31:59.677
and I should say John Stewart attacked
me recently so I'm not that thrilled

01:31:59.760 --> 01:32:03.837
about him but I would say I was a longun
fan of John Stewart. I watched probably

01:32:03.920 --> 01:32:07.517
every episode of the Daily Show when he
was on it. um you know for probably 20

01:32:07.600 --> 01:32:11.517
years but he did a very important public
service and it was that appearance on

01:32:11.600 --> 01:32:14.317
the coar show and I don't know how
broadly this is you know at the time it

01:32:14.400 --> 01:32:16.877
was in the news briefly but I don't know
how if people remember this but I will

01:32:16.960 --> 01:32:20.637
tell you in in the rooms where people
discuss what is misinformation and these

01:32:20.720 --> 01:32:23.517
policies that was a very big moment that
was probably actually the key catalyzing

01:32:23.600 --> 01:32:26.957
moment and I think he exhibited I would
say conspicuous bravery and had a big

01:32:27.040 --> 01:32:30.397
impact with that um and and yeah what
what for people who don't recall what he

01:32:30.480 --> 01:32:33.757
did was and this was in the full-blown
like you absolut you know you absolutely

01:32:33.840 --> 01:32:36.237
must lock down for 2 years you
absolutely must keep all the schools

01:32:36.320 --> 01:32:38.957
closed. You absolutely must have
everybody work from home. You absolutely

01:32:39.040 --> 01:32:41.437
must wear a mask. Like the whole thing.

01:32:41.520 --> 01:32:43.277
Um and one of those was you absolutely

01:32:43.360 --> 01:32:48.477
must believe that um co was completely
natural. You must believe that and not

01:32:48.560 --> 01:32:52.637
believing that means you're a fascist
Nazi Trump supporter mega evil QAnon

01:32:52.720 --> 01:32:55.437
person, right? And that was like uniform
and that was enforced by the social

01:32:55.520 --> 01:32:59.517
media companies. Um and and and like I
said that that was the peak and and and

01:32:59.600 --> 01:33:02.477
John Stewart went on the Cobar show
and I don't know if they planned it or not

01:33:02.560 --> 01:33:05.277
cuz Coar looked shocked. I don't know
how much of it was a bit, but he went on

01:33:05.360 --> 01:33:09.357
there and he he just had one of these
like the emperor is wearing no clothes

01:33:09.440 --> 01:33:13.437
things where he said it's just not
plausible that you had the co supervirus

01:33:13.520 --> 01:33:15.437
appear 300 yards down the street from

01:33:15.520 --> 01:33:17.517
the Wuhan Institute of [laughter]

01:33:17.600 --> 01:33:22.477
of Lethal Corona viruses. Um like
it's just not plausible that that that

01:33:22.560 --> 01:33:24.877
certainly that you could just rule
that out. And then there was another key

01:33:24.960 --> 01:33:27.517
moment actually the more serious version
was I think the author Nicholson Baker

01:33:27.600 --> 01:33:29.037
wrote a big piece for New York magazine.

01:33:29.120 --> 01:33:32.797
Uh Nicholson Baker is like one of our
great novelist writers um of our time

01:33:32.880 --> 01:33:36.717
and he wrote the piece and he did
the complete undressing of it. Um and that

01:33:36.800 --> 01:33:39.917
was the first I think that was the first
legit there had been like alt you know

01:33:40.000 --> 01:33:42.317
renegade there had been you know people
running around saying this but getting

01:33:42.400 --> 01:33:44.557
censored all over the place. That
was the first one that was like in the

01:33:44.640 --> 01:33:48.397
mainstream press where he and he talked
to all the heretics and he just like

01:33:48.480 --> 01:33:51.437
laid the whole thing out and and that
was a moment and I remember let's say a

01:33:51.520 --> 01:33:54.717
board meeting at one of these companies
after that where basically you know

01:33:54.800 --> 01:33:59.197
everybody looked around the table and
was like all right like I guess we're not

01:33:59.280 --> 01:34:00.797
we don't need to censor that anymore.

01:34:00.880 --> 01:34:03.357
And you know, and then of course what
immediately follows from that is well

01:34:03.440 --> 01:34:07.277
wait a minute why were we censoring
that in the first place? And okay like and

01:34:07.360 --> 01:34:09.837
then you know the downstream not
that day but the downstream conversations

01:34:09.920 --> 01:34:13.597
were like okay if if if we made such
a giant in retrospect if we all made such

01:34:13.680 --> 01:34:17.117
a giant collective mistake censoring
that then what does that say about the

01:34:17.200 --> 01:34:19.917
rest of our regime and I think that was
the thread in the sweater that started

01:34:20.000 --> 01:34:23.437
to unravel it. I should say it again.
I do think that the John Stewart

01:34:23.520 --> 01:34:27.837
appearance and the statement he made
was a courageous act. Y uh and I think we

01:34:27.920 --> 01:34:29.597
need to have more that of that in the

01:34:29.680 --> 01:34:32.317
world. And like you said, Elon,

01:34:32.400 --> 01:34:35.197
everything he did with X is is is a

01:34:35.280 --> 01:34:38.477
series of courageous acts. And I think

01:34:38.560 --> 01:34:40.717
what um

01:34:40.800 --> 01:34:43.757
Zuck, what Mark Zuckerberg did on Rogan

01:34:43.840 --> 01:34:47.117
a few days ago is a courageous act.

01:34:47.200 --> 01:34:50.717
>> Can you just speak to that?
he has become, I think, an outstanding

01:34:50.800 --> 01:34:53.197
communicator, right? Um, and he's, you
know, somebody who came in for a lot of

01:34:53.280 --> 01:34:57.357
criticism earlier in his career on that
front. And I think he's, you know, he's

01:34:57.440 --> 01:35:00.157
one of these guys who can sit down
and talk for three hours and and make

01:35:00.240 --> 01:35:03.837
complete sense. And and you know,
as as you do with with all of all of your

01:35:03.920 --> 01:35:06.477
episodes, like when somebody sits
and talks for three hours, like you really

01:35:06.560 --> 01:35:10.077
get a sense of somebody cuz it's it's
really hard to to be artificial for that

01:35:10.160 --> 01:35:12.637
long. And, you know, he's he's not done
that repeatedly. He's really good at it.

01:35:12.720 --> 01:35:15.917
And then look, I I again I would maybe
put him in the third category now with

01:35:16.000 --> 01:35:19.517
um certainly after that appearance.
Uh I would say um I would put him up there

01:35:19.600 --> 01:35:22.317
now with you know kind of Trump in the
sense of the public and the the public

01:35:22.400 --> 01:35:25.517
and the private are now synchronized.
I guess I'd say that like he he he said on

01:35:25.600 --> 01:35:28.477
that show what he really believes. He
said all the same things that he says in

01:35:28.560 --> 01:35:32.637
private like I don't think there's
really any any discrepancy anymore. Um I

01:35:32.720 --> 01:35:36.237
would say he has always taken
upon himself a level of obligation

01:35:36.320 --> 01:35:38.957
responsibility to running a company the

01:35:39.040 --> 01:35:43.837
size of Meta and to running services
that are that large. Um and I think you

01:35:43.920 --> 01:35:46.477
know his conception of what he's doing
which I think is correct is he's running

01:35:46.560 --> 01:35:48.877
services that are bigger than any
country, right? He's running you know

01:35:48.960 --> 01:35:53.197
over three billion people use those
services. Um and so and then you know

01:35:53.280 --> 01:35:56.157
the company has you know many tens
of thousands of of employees and many

01:35:56.240 --> 01:35:59.117
investors and it's a public company
and he thinks very deeply and seriously

01:35:59.200 --> 01:36:03.597
about his responsibilities. Um, and so,
you know, he has not felt like he has

01:36:03.680 --> 01:36:07.277
had, let's just say, the complete
flexibility that Elon has had. Um, and,

01:36:07.360 --> 01:36:10.237
you know, people could argue that one
way or the other, but, you know, he's

01:36:10.320 --> 01:36:13.037
he's, you know, yeah, he's he's,
you know, he talked about a lot. He's he's

01:36:13.120 --> 01:36:16.397
evolved a lot. A lot of it was he
learned a lot. And by the way, I'm going

01:36:16.480 --> 01:36:19.597
to put myself right back up there. Like,
I'm not claiming any huge foresight or

01:36:19.680 --> 01:36:23.357
heroism on any of this. Like, I've also
learned to learn a lot. Like, like I my

01:36:23.440 --> 01:36:26.397
views on things are very different
than they were 10 years ago on lots of

01:36:26.480 --> 01:36:29.437
topics. And so, um, you know, I I've
been on a learning journey. he's been on

01:36:29.520 --> 01:36:33.837
a learn learning journey. Um he
is a really really good learner. Um he

01:36:33.920 --> 01:36:37.357
assimilates information, you know,
as good as or better than anybody else I

01:36:37.440 --> 01:36:41.917
know. Um the other thing I guess I would
just say is he talked on that show about

01:36:42.000 --> 01:36:45.517
something very important which is when
you're in a role where you're running a

01:36:45.600 --> 01:36:49.117
company like that, there are a set
of decisions that you get to make and and

01:36:49.200 --> 01:36:52.797
you deserve to be criticized for those
decisions and so forth and it's valid.

01:36:52.880 --> 01:36:57.037
Um, but you are under tremendous
external pressure um, as well. Uh, and

01:36:57.120 --> 01:37:00.157
and by the way, you're under tremendous
internal pressure. You've got your

01:37:00.240 --> 01:37:03.437
employees coming at you. You've got your
executives in some cases coming at you.

01:37:03.520 --> 01:37:06.637
You've got your board in some cases
coming at you. Um, you've got your

01:37:06.720 --> 01:37:09.757
shareholders coming at you. So, you
you've got your internal pressures, but

01:37:09.840 --> 01:37:11.677
you also have the press coming at you.

01:37:11.760 --> 01:37:13.757
You've got academia coming at you.

01:37:13.840 --> 01:37:17.517
You've got the entire nonprofit complex
coming, activist complex coming at you.

01:37:17.600 --> 01:37:21.037
And then really critically, you know,
he talked about in Rogan, um, and these

01:37:21.120 --> 01:37:25.357
companies all went through this in this
last especially five years, you had the

01:37:25.440 --> 01:37:28.877
government coming at you. Um,
and you know, that's the really, you know,

01:37:28.960 --> 01:37:32.717
stinky end of the pool. um where you
know the government was in my view you

01:37:32.800 --> 01:37:35.997
know illegally exerting um you know
just in flagrant violation of the first

01:37:36.080 --> 01:37:40.397
amendment and federal laws on on speech
and coercion and uh and conspiracy uh

01:37:40.480 --> 01:37:43.917
forcing these companies to uh engage
in activities um you know that again in

01:37:44.000 --> 01:37:46.237
some cases they may have wanted to do
but in other cases they clearly didn't

01:37:46.320 --> 01:37:51.037
want to do and felt like they had
to do and the level of pressure

01:37:51.120 --> 01:37:54.637
like I say like I've known every CEO
at Twitter um they they've all had the

01:37:54.720 --> 01:37:58.557
exact same experience which when they
were in the job it was just daily beatings

01:37:58.640 --> 01:37:59.677
like it's just getting punched in the

01:37:59.760 --> 01:38:02.157
face every single day constantly. And

01:38:02.240 --> 01:38:06.877
you know, Mark is very good at getting
physically punched in the face,

01:38:06.960 --> 01:38:08.077
>> getting better and better. Yeah.

01:38:08.160 --> 01:38:11.437
>> And he is and and he you know, and he's
very good at, you know, taking a punch

01:38:11.520 --> 01:38:14.717
and he has taken many many punches. So
I would encourage people to have a level

01:38:14.800 --> 01:38:16.797
of sympathy for these are not kings.

01:38:16.880 --> 01:38:19.917
These these are people who operate with
like I would say extraordinary levels of

01:38:20.000 --> 01:38:23.517
external pressure. I think if I had been
in his job for the last decade, I would

01:38:23.600 --> 01:38:28.077
be a little puddle on the floor. Um,
and so it it it says, I think, a lot about

01:38:28.160 --> 01:38:31.117
him that he has, you know, risen to this
occasion the way that he has. And by the

01:38:31.200 --> 01:38:33.517
way, I should also say, you know,
the the cynicism of course is immediately

01:38:33.600 --> 01:38:36.717
out. And, you know, it's a, you know,
legitimate thing for people to say, but,

01:38:36.800 --> 01:38:38.877
you know, it's like, oh, you're only
doing this because of Trump or, you

01:38:38.960 --> 01:38:42.317
know, whatever. And it's just like,
no, like he has been thinking about and

01:38:42.400 --> 01:38:45.117
working on these things and trying
to figure them out for a very long time.

01:38:45.200 --> 01:38:48.477
And so, I I think what you saw are
legitimate, deeply held beliefs, not

01:38:48.560 --> 01:38:51.437
some, you know, you know, sort of just
in the- moment thing that could change

01:38:51.520 --> 01:38:53.517
at any time. >> So,
what do you think it's like to be

01:38:53.600 --> 01:38:56.077
him? and uh other leaders of companies

01:38:56.160 --> 01:38:59.597
to be you and withstand internal

01:38:59.680 --> 01:39:04.637
pressure and external pressure. What's
that life like? Is it deeply lonely?

01:39:04.720 --> 01:39:07.677
>> That's a great question. So leaders are
lonely to start with and and this is one

01:39:07.760 --> 01:39:10.877
of those things where almost nobody has
sympathy, right? [laughter] Nobody feels

01:39:10.960 --> 01:39:15.117
sorry for a CEO, right? Like it's not
a thing, right? Um and you know, and again

01:39:15.200 --> 01:39:17.917
legitimately so like CEOs get paid a lot
like the whole thing. There's a lot of

01:39:18.000 --> 01:39:20.317
great things about it. So it's not like
they should be out there asking for a

01:39:20.400 --> 01:39:23.597
lot of sympathy, but it is the case that
they are human beings. Um, and it is the

01:39:23.680 --> 01:39:27.357
case that it is a lonely job. And the
reason it's a lonely job, um, is because

01:39:27.440 --> 01:39:31.757
your words carry tremendous weight.
Um, and you are dealing with extremely

01:39:31.840 --> 01:39:34.797
complicated issues and you're under
a tremendous amount of emotional, you

01:39:34.880 --> 01:39:38.477
know, personal emotional stress. Um,
and you know, you often end up not being

01:39:38.560 --> 01:39:41.277
able to sleep well and you end up not
being able to like keep up an exercise

01:39:41.360 --> 01:39:43.917
routine and all those things.
And you know, you come under family stress

01:39:44.000 --> 01:39:47.197
because you're working all the time or
my partner Ben, you know, was he was CEO

01:39:47.280 --> 01:39:50.237
of our last company before we started
the venture firm. He he said, you know,

01:39:50.320 --> 01:39:53.037
the problem he had like with with his
family life was he would even when he

01:39:53.120 --> 01:39:56.957
was home at night, he wasn't home
because he was in his head trying to

01:39:57.040 --> 01:39:59.517
solve all the business problems and so
he was like supposed to be like having

01:39:59.600 --> 01:40:01.517
dinner with his kids and he was
physically there but he wasn't mentally

01:40:01.600 --> 01:40:04.797
there. So, you know, you kind of get
you get that a lot. But the key thing is

01:40:04.880 --> 01:40:05.997
like you can't talk to people, right?

01:40:06.080 --> 01:40:08.557
So, you can't I mean, you can talk to
your spouse and your kids, but like they

01:40:08.640 --> 01:40:11.117
don't understand they're not working in
your company. They don't understand they

01:40:11.200 --> 01:40:14.957
have the context to really help you. You
if you talk to your executives, they all

01:40:15.040 --> 01:40:18.797
have agendas, right? And so they're all
they're all and they can't resist. Like

01:40:18.880 --> 01:40:22.717
it's just human nature and and and so
you you can't necessarily rely on what

01:40:22.800 --> 01:40:26.797
they say. It's very hard in most
companies to talk to your board because

01:40:26.880 --> 01:40:30.637
they can fire you right now.
Now Mark has the situation because he has

01:40:30.720 --> 01:40:33.517
control. It actually turns out he can
talk to his board and Mark talks to us

01:40:33.600 --> 01:40:36.077
about many things that he doesn't
that most CEOs won't talk to their boards

01:40:36.160 --> 01:40:39.917
about because we literally because we
can't fire him. Um but the general a

01:40:40.000 --> 01:40:42.637
general including all the CEOs
of Twitter that that none of them had

01:40:42.720 --> 01:40:46.317
control and so they they could all get
fired. So, um, you can't talk to the

01:40:46.400 --> 01:40:48.557
board members. They're going to fire you.
You can't talk to the shareholders

01:40:48.640 --> 01:40:52.397
cuz they they'll just like dump your
stock, right? Like, okay, so who's the

01:40:52.480 --> 01:40:55.597
So, so, so every once in a while,
what you find is basically the best case

01:40:55.680 --> 01:40:58.877
scenario they have is they can talk to
other CEOs. Um, and there's these little

01:40:58.960 --> 01:41:01.437
organizations where they kind of pair
up and do that. And so, they maybe get a

01:41:01.520 --> 01:41:04.317
little bit out of that, but but even
that's fraught with peril because can

01:41:04.400 --> 01:41:07.597
you really talk about confidential
information with another CEO? Insider

01:41:07.680 --> 01:41:11.517
trading risk. Um, and so it's just
a very it's just a very lonely isolating

01:41:11.600 --> 01:41:14.797
thing to start with. Um and then you
you and then on top of that you apply

01:41:14.880 --> 01:41:18.557
pressure. Um right and that's where it
gets painful. And then maybe I'll just

01:41:18.640 --> 01:41:20.637
spend a moment on this internal external

01:41:20.720 --> 01:41:23.757
pressure thing. Um my general experience

01:41:23.840 --> 01:41:28.557
with companies is that they can
withstand most forms of external

01:41:28.640 --> 01:41:31.917
pressure as long as they
retain internal coherence.

01:41:32.000 --> 01:41:34.717
>> Right? So as long as the internal team

01:41:34.800 --> 01:41:39.597
um is really bonded together
and supporting each other um most forms of

01:41:39.680 --> 01:41:42.877
external pressure you can withstand.
And by that I mean investors dumped your

01:41:42.960 --> 01:41:45.757
stock, you lose your biggest customers,

01:41:45.840 --> 01:41:50.077
you know, whatever negative article, you
know, negative headline and you know um

01:41:50.160 --> 01:41:53.437
you can you can withstand all that and
basically in fact many of those forms of

01:41:53.520 --> 01:41:55.917
pressure can be bonding experiences
for the team where they where they where

01:41:56.000 --> 01:42:00.877
they come out stronger. Um what you 100%
cannot withstand is the internal crack.

01:42:00.960 --> 01:42:04.957
And what I always look for in high
pressure corporate situations now is the

01:42:05.040 --> 01:42:07.117
moment when the internal team cracks

01:42:07.200 --> 01:42:12.717
because I know the minute that happens,
we're in a different regime. Like it's

01:42:12.800 --> 01:42:15.277
like the, you know, the solid is turned
into a liquid. Like we're in a different

01:42:15.360 --> 01:42:18.397
regime and like the whole thing can
unravel in the next week cuz then people

01:42:18.480 --> 01:42:21.357
turn I mean this I guess this is what's
happening in Los Angeles right now. The

01:42:21.440 --> 01:42:26.717
the the the mayor and and the fire chief
turned on each other and that's it. That

01:42:26.800 --> 01:42:29.837
government is dysfunctional. It is never
going to get put back together again. It

01:42:29.920 --> 01:42:33.357
is over. it is not going to work ever
again. And that's what happens inside

01:42:33.440 --> 01:42:36.477
companies. Um and so so so somebody like

01:42:36.560 --> 01:42:41.037
Mark is under like profound internal
pressure and external pressure at the

01:42:41.120 --> 01:42:44.157
same time. Now he's been very good
at maintaining the coherence of his

01:42:44.240 --> 01:42:49.197
executive team, but he has had over the
years a lot of activist employees um as

01:42:49.280 --> 01:42:52.477
a lot of these companies have had and so
that's been continuous pressure. And

01:42:52.560 --> 01:42:55.517
then the final thing I'd say is I said
that companies can withstand most forms

01:42:55.600 --> 01:42:58.637
of external pressure but not all.
And the special although not all one is

01:42:58.720 --> 01:43:00.557
government pressure. um is that when

01:43:00.640 --> 01:43:03.517
your government comes for you like

01:43:03.600 --> 01:43:07.837
yeah any CEO who thinks that they're
bigger than their government um has that

01:43:07.920 --> 01:43:09.837
notion beaten out of them in short order.

01:43:09.920 --> 01:43:13.437
>> Can you just linger
on that cuz it it is

01:43:13.520 --> 01:43:17.357
uh maybe educating and deeply
disturbing. You've spoken about it

01:43:17.440 --> 01:43:22.557
before but worth speaking about again
this government pressure. So you think

01:43:22.640 --> 01:43:24.077
they've crossed the line into

01:43:24.160 --> 01:43:27.357
essentially criminal levels of pressure?

01:43:27.440 --> 01:43:29.597
>> Flagrant criminality

01:43:29.680 --> 01:43:32.317
felonies like obvious felonies and I can

01:43:32.400 --> 01:43:35.437
I can actually cite the laws but yes

01:43:35.520 --> 01:43:39.757
absolute criminality.
>> Can you explain how those possible to

01:43:39.840 --> 01:43:42.397
happen and maybe on a hopeful note how

01:43:42.480 --> 01:43:46.797
we can avoid that happening again? So
I should start with is a lot of this now

01:43:46.880 --> 01:43:50.077
is in the public record. Um which
is good because it needs to be in the

01:43:50.160 --> 01:43:52.237
public record. And so there's there's
three forms of things that are in the

01:43:52.320 --> 01:43:53.437
public record that people can look at.

01:43:53.520 --> 01:43:57.197
So one is the Twitter files. Um right
which Elon put out with the set of

01:43:57.280 --> 01:43:59.917
journalists when he took over. And I
will just tell you the Twitter files are

01:44:00.000 --> 01:44:03.277
100% representative of what I've seen
at every other one of these companies. And

01:44:03.360 --> 01:44:06.477
so you can just see what happened
in Twitter and you can just assume that

01:44:06.560 --> 01:44:09.357
that happened in in these other companies.
Um you know for the most part

01:44:09.440 --> 01:44:11.837
certainly in terms of the kind of pressure
that they got. So that's that's

01:44:11.920 --> 01:44:14.557
number one. And that stuff's you can
just read it and you should if you

01:44:14.640 --> 01:44:19.117
haven't. Um the second is um Mark
referenced this in the Rogan podcast.

01:44:19.200 --> 01:44:22.157
There's a congressman Jim Jordan who
has a committee congressional committee

01:44:22.240 --> 01:44:25.437
called the weaponization committee and
they in the last you know whatever three

01:44:25.520 --> 01:44:28.797
years have uh done a full-scale
investigation of this and Facebook

01:44:28.880 --> 01:44:32.797
produced a lot of documents into
that investigation and those have many of

01:44:32.880 --> 01:44:35.357
those have now been made public and you
can download those reports and there's

01:44:35.440 --> 01:44:38.877
like like 2,000 pages worth of material
on that and that's essentially the

01:44:38.960 --> 01:44:41.597
Facebook version of the Twitter
files just arrived at with a different

01:44:41.680 --> 01:44:45.517
mechanism. Um and then third is Mark
himself talking about this on on on

01:44:45.600 --> 01:44:49.197
Rogan. So I'll, you know, just defer
to his comments there. But yeah, basically

01:44:49.280 --> 01:44:52.797
what what those three forms
of information show you is basically the

01:44:52.880 --> 01:44:57.517
government, you know, over time, um,
and then culminating in 2020, 2021, you

01:44:57.600 --> 01:45:00.317
know, in the last four years just
decided that the First Amendment didn't

01:45:00.400 --> 01:45:04.397
apply to them. Um, and they just decided
that, um, federal laws around free

01:45:04.480 --> 01:45:08.317
speech and around conspiracies to take
away the rights of citizens just don't

01:45:08.400 --> 01:45:13.037
apply. Um, and they just decided that
they can just arbitrarily pressure um,

01:45:13.120 --> 01:45:16.637
uh, just like literally arbitrarily call
up companies and threaten and bully um,

01:45:16.720 --> 01:45:19.917
and yell and scream and and you know,
threaten repercussions and force people

01:45:20.000 --> 01:45:24.157
to force them to censor. Um, and you know,
there's this whole thing of like,

01:45:24.240 --> 01:45:26.397
well, the First Amendment only applies to,
you know, the government. It doesn't

01:45:26.480 --> 01:45:29.517
apply to companies. It's like, well,
there's actually a little bit of nuance

01:45:29.600 --> 01:45:33.277
to that. First of all, it definitely
applies to the government. [laughter]

01:45:33.360 --> 01:45:37.517
Like 100% the first amendment applies
to the government. By the way, so does the

01:45:37.600 --> 01:45:39.757
fourth amendment and the fifth
amendment, including the right to due

01:45:39.840 --> 01:45:41.437
process, also applies to the government.

01:45:41.520 --> 01:45:45.037
There was no due process at all to any
of the censorship regime that was put in

01:45:45.120 --> 01:45:48.637
place. There was no due process put in
place, by the way, for debanking either.

01:45:48.720 --> 01:45:52.717
Those are just as serious violations
as the as the free speech violations. And

01:45:52.800 --> 01:45:55.597
so this is just like flagrant flagrant
unconstitutional behavior. And then

01:45:55.680 --> 01:46:00.717
there are specific federal statutes.
Um there's it's 18241 and 18242.

01:46:00.800 --> 01:46:03.677
And one of them applies to federal
employees, government employees. And the

01:46:03.760 --> 01:46:08.077
other one uh applies to private actors
um around what's called deprivation of

01:46:08.160 --> 01:46:12.077
rights um and conspiracy to deprive
rights. And it is not legal according to

01:46:12.160 --> 01:46:15.917
the United States criminal code for
government employees or in a conspiracy

01:46:16.000 --> 01:46:19.197
private entities to take away
constitutional rights. And

01:46:19.280 --> 01:46:22.477
interestingly, some of those
constitutional rights are enumerated,

01:46:22.560 --> 01:46:24.957
for example, in the first amendment,
freedom of speech. And then some of

01:46:25.040 --> 01:46:27.997
those rights actually do
not need to be enumerated.

01:46:28.080 --> 01:46:31.917
It is if the government takes away
rights that you have, they don't need to

01:46:32.000 --> 01:46:34.877
be specifically enumerated rights
in the constitution in order to still be a

01:46:34.960 --> 01:46:39.837
felony. The constitution does not very
specifically does not say you only have

01:46:39.920 --> 01:46:42.637
the rights that it gives you. It says
you have all the rights that have not

01:46:42.720 --> 01:46:46.637
been previously defined as being taken
away from you, right? And so debanking

01:46:46.720 --> 01:46:50.077
qualifies as a right, you know, right
to access to the financial system is every

01:46:50.160 --> 01:46:53.997
bit something that's subject to these
laws as as as free speech. Um, and so

01:46:54.080 --> 01:46:56.557
yeah, that this has happened. And then
I'll just add one final thing, which is

01:46:56.640 --> 01:46:59.677
we've talked about two parties. So far
talked about the government employees um

01:46:59.760 --> 01:47:02.557
and then we've talked about the companies.
The government employees for

01:47:02.640 --> 01:47:06.237
sure have misbehaved. Um the companies
there's a very interesting question

01:47:06.320 --> 01:47:10.797
there as to whether they are victims
or perpetrators or both. um you know they

01:47:10.880 --> 01:47:13.677
will defend and they will argue and I
believe they have a good case that they

01:47:13.760 --> 01:47:17.037
are victims not perpetrators right they
are the downstream subjects of pressure

01:47:17.120 --> 01:47:20.957
not the co you know not the cause
of pressure but there's a big swath of

01:47:21.040 --> 01:47:23.597
people who are in the middle and
specifically the ones that are funded by

01:47:23.680 --> 01:47:26.957
the government that I think are
in possibly pretty big trouble and that's

01:47:27.040 --> 01:47:31.437
all of these third party um censorship
bureaus um I mean the one that sort of

01:47:31.520 --> 01:47:35.757
is most obvious is the so-called
Stanford Internet Observatory um that

01:47:35.840 --> 01:47:38.877
got booted up there over the last
several years and they basically were

01:47:38.960 --> 01:47:40.797
funded by the federal government to be

01:47:40.880 --> 01:47:43.357
third-party censorship operations and

01:47:43.440 --> 01:47:48.157
they're private sector actors but acting
with federal funding and so it puts them

01:47:48.240 --> 01:47:51.917
in this very interesting spot where
there there could be you know the very

01:47:52.000 --> 01:47:54.237
obvious theory under which they're
basically acting as agents of the

01:47:54.320 --> 01:47:57.517
government um and so I think they're
also very exposed on this and have

01:47:57.600 --> 01:47:59.437
behaved in just flagrantly illegal ways

01:47:59.520 --> 01:48:01.837
>> so fundamentally government should not

01:48:01.920 --> 01:48:04.797
do any kind of pressure even soft

01:48:04.880 --> 01:48:08.877
pressure on companies to censor can't

01:48:08.960 --> 01:48:11.997
not allow >> it really
is disturbing. I mean, it

01:48:12.080 --> 01:48:15.597
probably started soft,

01:48:15.680 --> 01:48:19.037
lightly, slowly, and then it escalates

01:48:19.120 --> 01:48:23.357
>> as the the old will to power
will instruct them to do

01:48:23.440 --> 01:48:27.117
>> cuz you get you get I mean, yeah.
I mean, that's why that's why there's

01:48:27.200 --> 01:48:31.517
protection cuz you can't put a check
on power for government, right?

01:48:31.600 --> 01:48:34.397
>> There are so many ways that they can
get you. Like there are so many ways they

01:48:34.480 --> 01:48:37.437
can come at you and get you. And you
know the the thing here to think about

01:48:37.520 --> 01:48:40.477
is a lot of times when people think
about government action they think about

01:48:40.560 --> 01:48:44.717
legislation right because you so when
I was a kid we got trained how does

01:48:44.800 --> 01:48:48.077
government work there was this famous
animated short the thing we got shown

01:48:48.160 --> 01:48:51.037
was just a cartoon of how a bill becomes
a law and it's like this you know fancy

01:48:51.120 --> 01:48:53.517
little bill snaked along
and goes this >> I'm just a bill.

01:48:53.600 --> 01:48:56.077
>> Yeah >> exactly like
it's like all right number

01:48:56.160 --> 01:48:58.717
one that's not how it works at all like
that that doesn't actually happen. We

01:48:58.800 --> 01:49:01.677
could talk about that but but but even
beyond that mostly what we're dealing

01:49:01.760 --> 01:49:04.717
with is not legislation. When we talk
about government power these days mostly

01:49:04.800 --> 01:49:09.037
it's not legislation. Mostly it's
either regulation which is basically the

01:49:09.120 --> 01:49:12.077
equivalent of legislation but having
not gone through the legislative process

01:49:12.160 --> 01:49:15.117
which is a very big open legal issue
and one of the things that the DOA is very

01:49:15.200 --> 01:49:19.117
focused on. Most most government rules
are not legislated they're regulated. Um

01:49:19.200 --> 01:49:22.237
and that that and there's tons and tons
of regulations that these companies are

01:49:22.320 --> 01:49:25.037
sub this is another cliche you'll hear
a lot which is oh private companies can do

01:49:25.120 --> 01:49:28.237
whatever they want. It's like oh no
they can't. they're subject to tens of

01:49:28.320 --> 01:49:32.157
thousands of regulations that they have
to comply with. Um, and the the hammer

01:49:32.240 --> 01:49:34.717
that comes down when you don't comply
with regulations is profound. Like they

01:49:34.800 --> 01:49:37.517
can completely wreck your company
with no abil no ability for you to do

01:49:37.600 --> 01:49:40.797
anything about it. So so so regulation
is a big part of the way the power gets

01:49:40.880 --> 01:49:44.317
exercised. And then there's what's
called just flatout administrative power

01:49:44.400 --> 01:49:47.117
is the term that you'll hear.
Administrative power is just literally

01:49:47.200 --> 01:49:49.917
the government telling you calling you
and telling you what to do. Here's an

01:49:50.000 --> 01:49:52.957
example how this works. So Facebook had
this whole program a few years back to

01:49:53.040 --> 01:49:56.477
do a global cryptocurrency for payments
called Libra. you know, and they they

01:49:56.560 --> 01:49:59.037
built the entire system and it
was this high-scale, you know, sort of new

01:49:59.120 --> 01:50:01.037
cryptocurrency and they were going
to build in every product and there were

01:50:01.120 --> 01:50:03.677
going to be three billion people who
could transact with Libra and they went

01:50:03.760 --> 01:50:06.157
to the government and they went to the
all these different try to figure out

01:50:06.240 --> 01:50:08.637
how to make it so it's like fully
compliant with anti-moneyaundering and

01:50:08.720 --> 01:50:10.477
all these, you know, controls and
everything and they had the whole thing

01:50:10.560 --> 01:50:14.877
ready to go. two senators wrote letters
to the big banks um saying we're not

01:50:14.960 --> 01:50:20.157
telling you that you can't work with
Facebook on this. But if you do, you

01:50:20.240 --> 01:50:23.277
should know that every aspect of your
business is going to come under greatly

01:50:23.360 --> 01:50:27.517
increased level of regulatory scrutiny,
which is of course the exact equivalent

01:50:27.600 --> 01:50:31.037
of it sure is a nice corner restaurant
you have here. It would be a shame if

01:50:31.120 --> 01:50:33.357
you know somebody tossed a Molotov
cocktail through the window and burned

01:50:33.440 --> 01:50:37.357
it down tonight, right? And so that
letter like what is that letter? Like

01:50:37.440 --> 01:50:41.757
it's not a law. It's not even
a regulation. is just like straight direct

01:50:41.840 --> 01:50:45.517
state power and and then and then it
culminates in literally calls from the

01:50:45.600 --> 01:50:49.037
White House where they're just like flat
out telling you what to do, which is of

01:50:49.120 --> 01:50:52.557
course what a king gets to do, but not
what a president gets to do. Um and and

01:50:52.640 --> 01:50:55.757
so anyway, so this B so so what
these companies experienced was they

01:50:55.840 --> 01:50:59.917
experienced the full paniply of this,
but it was it was the level of intensity

01:51:00.000 --> 01:51:02.157
was in that order. It was actually
legislation was the least important

01:51:02.240 --> 01:51:04.157
part. Regulation was more important.

01:51:04.240 --> 01:51:05.597
Administrative power was more important.

01:51:05.680 --> 01:51:09.277
And then just like flatout demands and
flatout threats were ultimately the most

01:51:09.360 --> 01:51:13.517
important. How do you fix it? Well,
first of all, like you have to elect

01:51:13.600 --> 01:51:17.197
people who don't do it. So like as with
all these things, ultimately the fault

01:51:17.280 --> 01:51:20.877
lies with the voters. Um and so, you know,
you have to decide you don't want

01:51:20.960 --> 01:51:23.837
to live in that regime. I have no idea
what part of this recent election mapped

01:51:23.920 --> 01:51:26.557
to the censorship regime. I do know
a lot of people on the right got very

01:51:26.640 --> 01:51:29.197
angry about the censorship, but I,
you know, I think it probably at least

01:51:29.280 --> 01:51:33.117
helped with enthusiasm on that side. Um,
you know, maybe some people on the left

01:51:33.200 --> 01:51:36.077
will now not want their, you know,
Democratic nominees to be sore

01:51:36.160 --> 01:51:40.637
proensorship. Um, so the the voters
definitely, you know, get a vote. Um,

01:51:40.720 --> 01:51:44.317
number one. Number two, I think you
need transparency. You need to know what

01:51:44.400 --> 01:51:46.397
happened. We know some of what happened.

01:51:46.480 --> 01:51:50.317
Um, Peter Teal has written in the FT
just now saying we just need like broad

01:51:50.400 --> 01:51:52.877
after what we've been through in the
last decade. We need broad-based truth

01:51:52.960 --> 01:51:55.997
and reconciliation, uh, you know,
efforts to really get to the root of

01:51:56.080 --> 01:51:59.117
things. Um, so maybe that's part of it.

01:51:59.200 --> 01:52:01.677
We need investigations for sure.

01:52:01.760 --> 01:52:04.797
Ultimately, we need prosecutions. Like
we we need ultimately we need people to

01:52:04.880 --> 01:52:07.677
go to jail. Um, because we need to set
object lessons that say that you don't

01:52:07.760 --> 01:52:11.357
get to do this. And and on those last
two, I would say that that those are

01:52:11.440 --> 01:52:14.397
both up to the new administration.
And I don't want to speak for them and I I

01:52:14.480 --> 01:52:16.877
don't want to predict what they're going
to do, but they have they for sure have

01:52:16.960 --> 01:52:18.237
the ability to do both of those things.

01:52:18.320 --> 01:52:20.477
And, you know, we'll we'll
see where they take it.

01:52:20.560 --> 01:52:22.877
>> Yeah. Yeah, it's truly disturbing.
I don't think anybody wants this kind of

01:52:22.960 --> 01:52:25.277
overreach of power for government,

01:52:25.360 --> 01:52:26.877
including perhaps people that were

01:52:26.960 --> 01:52:30.157
participating it. It's like this dark

01:52:30.240 --> 01:52:33.277
momentum of power that you just get

01:52:33.360 --> 01:52:37.197
caught up in it. And that's the reason
there's that kind of protection. Nobody

01:52:37.280 --> 01:52:39.357
wants that. >> So, I use
the metaphor of the ring of

01:52:39.440 --> 01:52:42.317
power. And for people who don't catch
the reference, that's Lord Lord of the

01:52:42.400 --> 01:52:44.717
Rings. And the thing with the ring
of power in Lord of the Rings, it's the

01:52:44.800 --> 01:52:47.917
ring the Gollum has in the beginning and
it turns you invisible. And it turns out

01:52:48.000 --> 01:52:50.717
it like unlocks all this like fearsome
power. is the most powerful thing in the

01:52:50.800 --> 01:52:54.237
world is the key to everything.
And basically the the the moral lesson of

01:52:54.320 --> 01:52:56.797
Lord of the Rings, which was, you know,
written by a guy who thought very deeply

01:52:56.880 --> 01:53:00.557
about these things, is yeah, the ring
of power is inherently corrupting. The

01:53:00.640 --> 01:53:02.797
characters at one point they're like,
Gandalf, just put on the ring and like

01:53:02.880 --> 01:53:05.117
fix this, right? And he's like he like

01:53:05.200 --> 01:53:07.677
he will not put the ring on even to like

01:53:07.760 --> 01:53:12.157
end the war um because he knows that it
will corrupt him. And then you know the

01:53:12.240 --> 01:53:16.397
charact as it starts the character
of Gollum is the result of you know like a

01:53:16.480 --> 01:53:19.357
normal character who ultimately becomes
you know this incredibly corrupt and

01:53:19.440 --> 01:53:22.477
deranged version of himself.
And so I mean I think you I think you said

01:53:22.560 --> 01:53:25.837
something actually quite profound there
which is the ring of power is infinitely

01:53:25.920 --> 01:53:28.477
tempting. You know the censorship
[clears throat] machine is infinitely

01:53:28.560 --> 01:53:33.037
tempting if you if you have it like you
are going to use it. It's overwhelmingly

01:53:33.120 --> 01:53:37.837
tempting because it's so powerful
and that it will corrupt you. And yeah I I

01:53:37.920 --> 01:53:42.317
don't know whether any of these people
feel any of this today. they should. I

01:53:42.400 --> 01:53:46.157
don't know if they do. Um, but yeah, you
go out five or 10 years later, you know,

01:53:46.240 --> 01:53:49.357
you would hope that you would realize
that your soul has been corroded and you

01:53:49.440 --> 01:53:52.157
probably started out thinking that you
were a patriot and you were trying to

01:53:52.240 --> 01:53:55.277
defend democracy and you ended up being,
you know, extremely authoritarian and

01:53:55.360 --> 01:53:57.197
anti-democratic and anti-western.

01:53:57.280 --> 01:54:01.437
>> Can I ask you a a tough question here?

01:54:01.520 --> 01:54:04.637
Staying on the ring of power, Elon is

01:54:04.720 --> 01:54:09.880
quickly becoming the most
powerful human on Earth.

01:54:10.560 --> 01:54:12.637
Uh, >> I'm not sure about that.

01:54:12.720 --> 01:54:13.837
>> You don't you don't think he is?

01:54:13.920 --> 01:54:17.847
>> Well, he doesn't have
the nukes. So, >> nukes.

01:54:17.930 --> 01:54:20.797
[laughter] >> Yeah,
there's different definitions and

01:54:20.880 --> 01:54:22.797
perspectives on power, right?

01:54:22.880 --> 01:54:27.117
>> How can he and or Donald Trump

01:54:27.200 --> 01:54:29.997
uh avoid the corrupting
aspects of this power?

01:54:30.080 --> 01:54:31.197
>> I mean, I think
the danger is there with

01:54:31.280 --> 01:54:34.957
power. It's just it's flat out there.
I I would say with Elon, I mean, we, you

01:54:35.040 --> 01:54:37.117
know, we'll see. I would say
with Elon and I would say by the way

01:54:37.200 --> 01:54:40.077
overwhelmingly I would say so far so good.
I'm extremely extremely thrilled

01:54:40.160 --> 01:54:45.117
by what he's done on almost every front
um for like you know the last 30 years

01:54:45.200 --> 01:54:47.677
but including all this stuff recently
like I think he's he's been a real hero

01:54:47.760 --> 01:54:51.197
on a lot of topics where we needed
to see heroism but look I I would say I

01:54:51.280 --> 01:54:54.157
guess the sort of case that he has
this level of power is some combination of

01:54:54.240 --> 01:54:57.117
the money and the the pro and the
proximity to the president. Um and

01:54:57.200 --> 01:55:00.077
obviously both of those are you
know are instruments of power. The

01:55:00.160 --> 01:55:05.197
counter-argument to that is I do think
a lot of how Elon is causing change in the

01:55:05.280 --> 01:55:07.757
world right now. I mean there's there's
the companies he's running directly

01:55:07.840 --> 01:55:11.357
where I think he's doing very well and
we're investors in multiple of them and

01:55:11.440 --> 01:55:15.837
doing very well. Um uh but I think like
a lot of the stuff that gets people mad

01:55:15.920 --> 01:55:18.797
at him is like it's the social
and political stuff and it's you know it's

01:55:18.880 --> 01:55:21.437
his statements and then it's the down
downstream effects of his statements.

01:55:21.520 --> 01:55:24.077
So, like for example, it's, you know,
for the last couple weeks, it's been

01:55:24.160 --> 01:55:27.277
him, you know, kind of weighing in on
this rape gang scandal, you know, this

01:55:27.360 --> 01:55:31.917
rape organized child rape thing in the UK.
Um, and, you know, it's it's, you

01:55:32.000 --> 01:55:34.477
know, it's it's actually it's
a preference cascade. It's one of these

01:55:34.560 --> 01:55:36.957
things where people knew there was a
problem. They weren't willing to talk

01:55:37.040 --> 01:55:41.437
about it. It kind of got suppressed.
Um, and then, um, Elon brought it up and

01:55:41.520 --> 01:55:44.557
then all of a sudden there's now
in the UK this like massive explosion of

01:55:44.640 --> 01:55:47.277
basically open conversation about it for
the first time. And you know, it's like

01:55:47.360 --> 01:55:49.917
this catalyzing all of a sudden
everybody's kind of woken up and being

01:55:50.000 --> 01:55:53.277
like, "Oh my god, you know, this is
really bad." And and and there will be

01:55:53.360 --> 01:55:56.077
now, you know, I'm pretty sure pretty
pretty clearly big changes as a result.

01:55:56.160 --> 01:55:59.517
So, and Elon was, you know, he played
the role of the boy who said the emperor

01:55:59.600 --> 01:56:03.197
has no clothes, right? But but but here's
the thing. Here's my point. Like

01:56:03.280 --> 01:56:06.317
he said it about something that was true,
right? And so had he said it about

01:56:06.400 --> 01:56:09.997
something that was false, you know,
he would get no credit for it. He wouldn't

01:56:10.080 --> 01:56:13.837
deserve any credit for it. But he said
something that was true. And by the way,

01:56:13.920 --> 01:56:16.397
everybody over there instantly they were
like, "Oh yeah, he's right." right? Like

01:56:16.480 --> 01:56:20.397
nobody like nobody seriously said
they're just arguing the details now. So

01:56:20.480 --> 01:56:23.437
so number one it's like okay he says
true things and so it's like okay how

01:56:23.520 --> 01:56:28.637
far put it this way like how worried
are we about somebody becoming corrupt by

01:56:28.720 --> 01:56:32.077
virtue of their power being that they
get to speak the truth. And I guess I

01:56:32.160 --> 01:56:34.237
would say especially in the last
decade of what we've been through where

01:56:34.320 --> 01:56:36.557
everybody's been lying all the time
about everything I'd say I think we

01:56:36.640 --> 01:56:39.917
should run this experiment as hard as we
can to get people to tell the truth. And

01:56:40.000 --> 01:56:42.077
so uh I don't feel that bad about that.

01:56:42.160 --> 01:56:46.557
And then the money side, you know, this
rapidly gets into the money and politics

01:56:46.640 --> 01:56:49.597
question. And the money and politics
question is this very interesting

01:56:49.680 --> 01:56:53.837
question because um it seems like
there's a clear-cut case that the more

01:56:53.920 --> 01:56:57.837
money and politics, the worse things are
and the more corrupted the system is. Um

01:56:57.920 --> 01:56:59.757
that was a very popular topic of public

01:56:59.840 --> 01:57:04.877
conversation up until 2016 um when
Hillary outspent Trump 3 to1 and lost.

01:57:04.960 --> 01:57:08.957
You'll notice that money and politics
has all almost vanished as a topic um in

01:57:09.040 --> 01:57:12.557
the last eight years and and once again
Trump spent far you know Kamla raised

01:57:12.640 --> 01:57:16.717
and spent 1.5 billion on top of what
Biden had spent. So they were they were

01:57:16.800 --> 01:57:19.197
at I don't know something like three
three billion total and Trump I think

01:57:19.280 --> 01:57:23.677
spent again like a third or a fourth
of that. Um and so the money and politics

01:57:23.760 --> 01:57:27.037
kind of topic has kind of vanished from
the popular conversation the last eight

01:57:27.120 --> 01:57:32.440
years. it has come back a little
bit now that Elon is spending,

01:57:33.040 --> 01:57:34.397
>> you know, but but again,
like it's like,

01:57:34.480 --> 01:57:37.357
okay, he's spending, but the data would
seem to indicate in the last at least

01:57:37.440 --> 01:57:40.397
the last eight years that money doesn't
win the political battles. It's actually

01:57:40.480 --> 01:57:43.277
like the voters actually have a voice
and they actually exercise it and they

01:57:43.360 --> 01:57:46.157
don't just listen to ads. And so again,
there I would say like, yeah, clearly

01:57:46.240 --> 01:57:48.957
there's some power there, but I don't
know if it's like I don't know if it's

01:57:49.040 --> 01:57:52.477
some like I don't know if it's some
weapon that he can just like turn on and

01:57:52.560 --> 01:57:55.277
and use in a definitive way. And I don't

01:57:55.360 --> 01:57:59.837
know if there's parallels there, but I
could also say just on a human level, he

01:57:59.920 --> 01:58:04.317
has a good heart and I interact with
a lot of powerful people and that's not

01:58:04.400 --> 01:58:06.797
always the case. So that's a good thing

01:58:06.880 --> 01:58:11.597
there. If we if we can draw parallels
to the Hobbit or whatever, [laughter]

01:58:11.680 --> 01:58:13.677
who gets to put on the ring? >> Froto.

01:58:13.760 --> 01:58:15.757
>> Froto. Yeah. >> Yeah.
I mean, maybe one of the lessons

01:58:15.840 --> 01:58:18.077
of Lord of the Rings, right, is even
even Froto would have been, you know,

01:58:18.160 --> 01:58:21.517
even Froto would have been corrupted,
right? But, you know, nevertheless,

01:58:21.600 --> 01:58:24.317
>> you had somebody who could do what
it took at the at the time. The the thing

01:58:24.400 --> 01:58:27.597
that I find just so amazing about the Elon
phenomenon and all the critiques is

01:58:27.680 --> 01:58:30.877
um you know the one thing that everybody
in our societies universally agrees on

01:58:30.960 --> 01:58:35.517
because of our sort of our our
postChristian egalitarian. So you know

01:58:35.600 --> 01:58:39.437
we live in sort of this post secularized
Christian context in the west now and

01:58:39.520 --> 01:58:43.037
it's you we you know we we consider
Christianity kind of you know backwards

01:58:43.120 --> 01:58:44.397
but we still believe essentially all the

01:58:44.480 --> 01:58:46.477
same things. We just dress them up in in

01:58:46.560 --> 01:58:51.517
in sort of fake science. Um um so the
the one thing that we're all told we're

01:58:51.600 --> 01:58:53.917
all taught from from early is that the
best people in the world are the people

01:58:54.000 --> 01:58:57.597
who care about all of humanity right
u and we venerate you know all of our

01:58:57.680 --> 01:58:59.997
figures are people who care about all
of you know Jesus cared about all of

01:59:00.080 --> 01:59:02.957
humanity Gandhi cared about all
of humanity Martin Luther King cared about

01:59:03.040 --> 01:59:06.237
all of humanity like this univer
the person who cares the most about

01:59:06.320 --> 01:59:10.957
everybody and and with Elon you have
a guy who literally like is he's lit and

01:59:11.040 --> 01:59:13.837
he he talks about this constantly and he
talks about exactly the same in private

01:59:13.920 --> 01:59:17.837
he's literally he is operating on behalf
of all of humanity to try to get us to,

01:59:17.920 --> 01:59:20.557
you know, he goes through to get us to be
multilanetary civilization so that we

01:59:20.640 --> 01:59:23.197
can survive a strike at any one planet
so that we can extend the light of human

01:59:23.280 --> 01:59:25.597
consciousness into the world and,
you know, into the universe and have it

01:59:25.680 --> 01:59:28.717
persist, you know, and the good
of the whole thing. And like literally the

01:59:28.800 --> 01:59:31.517
critique is, yeah, we want you to care
about all of humanity, but not like

01:59:31.600 --> 01:59:33.757
that. [laughter]

01:59:33.840 --> 01:59:38.877
>> Yeah. All the critics, all the all the
surface turmoil, all of the critics will

01:59:38.960 --> 01:59:42.237
be forgotten. >> Yeah,
I think that's Yeah, that's clear.

01:59:42.320 --> 01:59:45.197
You said that uh we always end up being

01:59:45.280 --> 01:59:47.917
ruled by the elites of some kind. Can

01:59:48.000 --> 01:59:50.557
you explain this law, this idea?

01:59:50.640 --> 01:59:54.797
>> So, this comes from a Italian political
philosopher from about 100 years ago

01:59:54.880 --> 01:59:57.277
named Robert I'm going to mangle the let

01:59:57.360 --> 02:00:00.397
you pronounce the Italian uh Michelle's

02:00:00.480 --> 02:00:05.037
um or Michael's. Um and then it was I
learned about it through a a famous book

02:00:05.120 --> 02:00:07.997
on on politics. probably the best book
on politics written in the 20th century

02:00:08.080 --> 02:00:11.997
called the Machavelians by this guy
James Bernham um who has had a big

02:00:12.080 --> 02:00:15.277
impact on me but um in the Machavelians
he resurrects what he calls this the

02:00:15.360 --> 02:00:18.157
sort of Italian realist school of of
political philosophy from the from the

02:00:18.240 --> 02:00:21.437
tens and 20s um and these were people
to be clear this was not like a Mousolini

02:00:21.520 --> 02:00:24.877
thing these were people who were trying
to understand the actual mechanics of

02:00:24.960 --> 02:00:30.237
how politics actually works so to get
to the actual sort of mechanical substance

02:00:30.320 --> 02:00:34.397
of like how the political machine
operates and um this guy Michelle's had

02:00:34.480 --> 02:00:36.157
this concept ended up with called the

02:00:36.240 --> 02:00:41.517
iron law of oligarchy. Um, and so what
the iron law of oligarchy and let me

02:00:41.600 --> 02:00:43.917
take a step back to say what he meant
by oligarchy because it has multiple

02:00:44.000 --> 02:00:46.717
meanings. So basically in classic
political theory there's basically three

02:00:46.800 --> 02:00:51.597
forms of government at core. There's
democracy which is rule of many. There's

02:00:51.680 --> 02:00:54.717
oligarchy which is rule of the few.
Um, and there's monarchy which is rule of

02:00:54.800 --> 02:00:57.997
the one. And you can just use that as
a general framework of any government

02:00:58.080 --> 02:01:00.317
you're going to be under is going
to be one of those. Just a mechanical

02:01:00.400 --> 02:01:03.437
observation without even saying which
one's good or bad. Just a structural

02:01:03.520 --> 02:01:07.117
observation. Um, and so the question
that Michelle's asked was like, is there

02:01:07.200 --> 02:01:09.597
such a thing as democracy? Like,
is there actually such a thing as

02:01:09.680 --> 02:01:13.837
democracy? Is is there ever actually
like direct direct government? And what

02:01:13.920 --> 02:01:16.957
he did was he mounted this sort
of incredible historical uh exploration of

02:01:17.040 --> 02:01:20.477
whether democracies had ever existed
in the world. And the answer basically is

02:01:20.560 --> 02:01:23.597
almost never. And we could talk about
that. But the other thing he did was he

02:01:23.680 --> 02:01:28.077
he sought out the most democratic uh
private organization in the world that

02:01:28.160 --> 02:01:31.197
he could find at that point which he
concluded was some basically communist

02:01:31.280 --> 02:01:34.637
German autoworkers union that was like
wholly devoted to the workers of the

02:01:34.720 --> 02:01:37.917
world uniting you know back when that
was like the hot thing and he went in

02:01:38.000 --> 02:01:40.557
there and he's like okay this is the
organization out of all organizations on

02:01:40.640 --> 02:01:43.757
planet earth that must be operating as
a as as a direct democracy and he went in

02:01:43.840 --> 02:01:46.637
there and he's like oh nope there's
a leadership class you know there's like

02:01:46.720 --> 02:01:49.117
six guys at the top and they
control everything [laughter]

02:01:49.200 --> 02:01:52.397
and they lead the rest of the membership
along you know by the nose which is of

02:01:52.480 --> 02:01:56.317
course the story of every union. The story
of every union is always the story

02:01:56.400 --> 02:01:58.557
of, you know, there's there's a Jimmy
Hoffa in there, you know, kind of

02:01:58.640 --> 02:02:01.357
running the thing. You know, we just saw
that with the doc workers union, right?

02:02:01.440 --> 02:02:05.917
Like, you know, there's a guy. Um,
and he's in charge. And by the way, the

02:02:06.000 --> 02:02:09.837
number two is his son, right?
Like that's not like a, you know, an

02:02:09.920 --> 02:02:13.357
accident, right? So, the iron law
oligarchy basically says democracy is

02:02:13.440 --> 02:02:15.357
fake. Um, there's always a ruling class.

02:02:15.440 --> 02:02:17.917
There's always a ruling elite
structurally. And he said the reason for

02:02:18.000 --> 02:02:21.437
that is because the masses can't
organize, right? what what's the

02:02:21.520 --> 02:02:25.037
fundamental problem that whether the mass
is 25,000 people in a union or 250

02:02:25.120 --> 02:02:28.157
million people in a country the masses
can't organize the majority cannot

02:02:28.240 --> 02:02:32.317
organize only a minority can organize um
and to be effective in politics you must

02:02:32.400 --> 02:02:37.117
organize um and therefore every
political structure in human history has

02:02:37.200 --> 02:02:39.277
been some form of a small organized

02:02:39.360 --> 02:02:40.957
elite ruling a large and dispersed

02:02:41.040 --> 02:02:45.197
majority every single one. Um the Greeks

02:02:45.280 --> 02:02:49.037
and the Florentines had brief
experiments in direct democracy and they

02:02:49.120 --> 02:02:53.197
were total disasters. Uh in Florence,
I forget the name of it. It was called

02:02:53.280 --> 02:02:56.157
like the workers revolt or something
like that. There was like a 2-year

02:02:56.240 --> 02:02:59.837
period um where they basically
experimented with direct democracy

02:02:59.920 --> 02:03:02.957
during the Renaissance and it was a
complete disaster and they never tried

02:03:03.040 --> 02:03:07.757
it again. In the state of California, we
have our own experiment on this which is

02:03:07.840 --> 02:03:11.677
the proposition system which is an
overlay on top of the legislature and

02:03:11.760 --> 02:03:14.397
it, you know, anybody who looks at it
for two seconds concludes it's been a

02:03:14.480 --> 02:03:17.357
complete disaster. It's just
a catastrophe. Um, and it's caused

02:03:17.440 --> 02:03:20.877
enormous damage to the state.
And so basically the the the basically the

02:03:20.960 --> 02:03:24.317
presumption that we are in a democracy
is just sort of by definition fake. Now

02:03:24.400 --> 02:03:27.117
good news for the US. It turns out
the founders understood this and so of

02:03:27.200 --> 02:03:29.757
course they didn't give us a direct
democracy. They gave us a representative

02:03:29.840 --> 02:03:32.717
democracy, right? Right. And so they
they they built the oligarchy into the

02:03:32.800 --> 02:03:35.357
system in the form of Congress
and the and the executive branch and the

02:03:35.440 --> 02:03:39.917
judicial branch. Um but but so anyway,
so as a consequence, democracy is always

02:03:40.000 --> 02:03:43.677
everywhere fake. There is always
a ruling elite. Um and and basically the

02:03:43.760 --> 02:03:47.197
the the the lesson of the Machavelians
is you can deny that if you want, but

02:03:47.280 --> 02:03:50.477
you're fooling yourself. Um the way
to actually think about how to make a

02:03:50.560 --> 02:03:54.157
system work and maintain any sort
of shred of freedom um is to actually

02:03:54.240 --> 02:03:57.197
understand that that is actually what's
happening. And uh lucky for us, the

02:03:57.280 --> 02:04:00.157
Vander saw this and

02:04:00.240 --> 02:04:02.557
figured out a way to given that there's

02:04:02.640 --> 02:04:07.357
going to be a ruling elite,
how to create a balance of power

02:04:07.440 --> 02:04:09.997
among that elite. Yes.
So it doesn't get out of hand.

02:04:10.080 --> 02:04:12.957
>> And it was very clever, right? And you
know, some of this was based on earlier

02:04:13.040 --> 02:04:15.357
experiments. Some of this, by the way,
you know, they these these were very

02:04:15.440 --> 02:04:17.917
very smart people, right? And so they
they knew tremendous amounts of like

02:04:18.000 --> 02:04:21.037
Greek and Roman history. They knew the
Renaissance history. You know, they the

02:04:21.120 --> 02:04:23.997
Federalist papers, they argued this at
great length. You can read it all. um

02:04:24.080 --> 02:04:27.117
you know they they they they ran like
a one of the best seminars in world

02:04:27.200 --> 02:04:30.317
history trying to figure this out um and
they they went through all this and yeah

02:04:30.400 --> 02:04:32.637
and so they they thought through it
very carefully but just I'll give you an

02:04:32.720 --> 02:04:36.477
example which continues to be a hot
topic so you know one way they did it is

02:04:36.560 --> 02:04:39.997
through the three branches of government
right executive legislative and judicial

02:04:40.080 --> 02:04:44.157
um sort of balance of powers but the
other way they did it was they sort of

02:04:44.240 --> 02:04:47.997
echoing what had been done earlier I
think in the UK parliament um uh they

02:04:48.080 --> 02:04:51.357
created the two different bodies of the
legislature right and so the you know

02:04:51.440 --> 02:04:54.477
the house and the senate and as you know
the the house of portion on the basis of

02:04:54.560 --> 02:04:56.317
population and the Senate is not right.

02:04:56.400 --> 02:05:00.397
Uh the small states have just as many
senators as the big states. Um and then

02:05:00.480 --> 02:05:03.117
they made the deliberate decision
to have the House get reelected every two

02:05:03.200 --> 02:05:05.837
years to make it very responsive to
the will of the people and they made the

02:05:05.920 --> 02:05:09.117
decision to have the Senate get
re-elected every six years so that it

02:05:09.200 --> 02:05:13.197
had more buffer from the passions of
the moment. Um but what's interesting is

02:05:13.280 --> 02:05:16.557
they didn't choose one or the other,
right? They did them both. And then to

02:05:16.640 --> 02:05:19.197
to get legislation passed, you have
to get through both of them. And so they

02:05:19.280 --> 02:05:23.677
they built in like a second layer
of checks and balances. And then there's a

02:05:23.760 --> 02:05:26.317
thousand observations we could make
about like how well the system is

02:05:26.400 --> 02:05:29.997
working today and like how much does it
live up to the ideal and how much are we

02:05:30.080 --> 02:05:32.957
actually complying with the constitution
and there's lots of you know there's

02:05:33.040 --> 02:05:36.797
lots of open questions there but you
know this system has survived for coming

02:05:36.880 --> 02:05:41.037
on 250 years with a country that has
been spectacularly successful that I

02:05:41.120 --> 02:05:43.677
don't think at least you know I don't
think any of us would trade the system

02:05:43.760 --> 02:05:46.717
for any other one and so it's yeah
one of the great all-time achievements.

02:05:46.800 --> 02:05:50.317
Yeah, it's incredible. And we should say
they were all pretty young relative to

02:05:50.400 --> 02:05:54.237
our current set of leaders,
>> many in their 20s at the time and like

02:05:54.320 --> 02:05:56.717
super geniuses. This is one of those
things where it's just like, all right,

02:05:56.800 --> 02:05:59.517
something happened where there was a
group of people where, you know, nobody

02:05:59.600 --> 02:06:02.877
ever tested their IQs, but like these
are Einsteins of politics. Yeah. An

02:06:02.960 --> 02:06:05.917
amazing thing. But anyway, I I I just I
go through all that, which is they were

02:06:06.000 --> 02:06:07.837
very keen students of the actual

02:06:07.920 --> 02:06:12.957
mechanical practice of democracy, not
fixated on what was desirable. They were

02:06:13.040 --> 02:06:15.837
incredibly focused on what would
actually work, which is, you know, I

02:06:15.920 --> 02:06:17.837
think the the way to think
about these things.

02:06:17.920 --> 02:06:22.237
>> They were engineers of sort,
not the fuzzy humanity students of sort.

02:06:22.320 --> 02:06:24.877
>> They were shape rotators,
not word cells.

02:06:24.960 --> 02:06:29.597
>> I [laughter] remember that. Wow.
That meme came and went. I think you were

02:06:29.680 --> 02:06:31.917
central to that.
You're central to a lot of memes.

02:06:32.000 --> 02:06:35.197
>> I was. >> You're You're the meme
dealer and the meme popularizer.

02:06:35.280 --> 02:06:37.357
>> That's true. >> That meme
I get some credit for. And

02:06:37.440 --> 02:06:39.677
then the current thing is the other one
I get some credit for. I don't know that

02:06:39.760 --> 02:06:42.637
I invented either one,
but um I I popularized them.

02:06:42.720 --> 02:06:45.917
>> Take credit and run with it.

02:06:46.000 --> 02:06:49.117
>> Uh if we can just
linger on the McKavalians,

02:06:49.200 --> 02:06:51.597
it's a it's a study of power and power

02:06:51.680 --> 02:06:53.997
dynamics like you mentioned looking at

02:06:54.080 --> 02:06:57.197
the actual reality of the machinery of

02:06:57.280 --> 02:07:00.077
power. from everything you've seen now

02:07:00.160 --> 02:07:04.877
in government but also in companies what
are some interesting things you can sort

02:07:04.960 --> 02:07:08.877
of continue to say about the dynamics
of power the jostling for power that

02:07:08.960 --> 02:07:13.437
happens inside these institutions yeah
so it a lot of it you know we we already

02:07:13.520 --> 02:07:16.157
talked about this a bit with the
universities which is you can apply a

02:07:16.240 --> 02:07:19.677
Machavevelian style lens to the it's why
I posed the question to you that I did

02:07:19.760 --> 02:07:24.397
which is okay who runs the university
the trustees the administration the

02:07:24.480 --> 02:07:27.117
students or the faculty and and you
know the answer the true answer is some

02:07:27.200 --> 02:07:31.277
combination of the three of the four
plus the donors by the way plus the

02:07:31.360 --> 02:07:34.557
government plus the press etc right
and so there you know there's there's a

02:07:34.640 --> 02:07:38.477
mechanical interpretation of that I mean
companies operate under the exact same

02:07:38.560 --> 02:07:42.477
you know set of questions who runs
a company you know the CEO but like the

02:07:42.560 --> 02:07:45.757
CEO runs the company basically up to the
day that either the shareholders or the

02:07:45.840 --> 02:07:48.957
management team revolt if
the shareholders revolt it's very hard for

02:07:49.040 --> 02:07:51.597
the CEO to stay in the seat if
the management team revolts it's very hard

02:07:51.680 --> 02:07:54.797
for the CEO to stay in the seat by the
way if the employees revolt it's also

02:07:54.880 --> 02:07:58.237
hard to stay in the seat by the way if
the New York Times comes at you, it's

02:07:58.320 --> 02:08:01.117
also very hard to stay in the seat.
If the Senate comes at you, it's very hard

02:08:01.200 --> 02:08:05.997
to stay in the seat. So, you know, like
a a a a a reductionist version of this

02:08:06.080 --> 02:08:09.597
that is a good shortorthhand
is who can get who fired,

02:08:09.680 --> 02:08:13.197
you know, so so who has more power?
You know, the the newspaper columnist who

02:08:13.280 --> 02:08:16.957
makes, you know, $200,000 a year or the
CEO who makes, you know, $200 million a

02:08:17.040 --> 02:08:20.237
year. And it's like, well, I know for
sure that the columnist can get the CEO

02:08:20.320 --> 02:08:22.077
fired. I've seen that happen before. I

02:08:22.160 --> 02:08:23.917
have yet to see a CEO get a columnist

02:08:24.000 --> 02:08:27.437
fired. Did anyone ever get fired from

02:08:27.520 --> 02:08:29.517
the Bill Aman

02:08:29.600 --> 02:08:35.117
assault on journalism? So,
Bill Bill like really showed the [__] that

02:08:35.200 --> 02:08:37.597
happens in journalism. >> No,
cuz what happens is they they they

02:08:37.680 --> 02:08:40.557
wear it with a I mean they and I would
say to their credit they wear it as a

02:08:40.640 --> 02:08:43.677
badge of honor and then to their shame
they wear it as a badge of honor, right?

02:08:43.760 --> 02:08:47.357
Which is if you know if they're
doing the right thing then they are

02:08:47.440 --> 02:08:50.797
justifiably priding themselves for
standing up under pressure. But it also

02:08:50.880 --> 02:08:54.317
means that they can't respond
to legitimate criticism and you know

02:08:54.400 --> 02:08:56.157
They're obviously terrible at that now.

02:08:56.240 --> 02:09:00.077
Um, as I recall, he went straight
to the CEO of I think Ashel Springer

02:09:00.160 --> 02:09:03.757
>> that owns Insider and I, you know,
and I I happen to know the CEO and I think

02:09:03.840 --> 02:09:06.477
he's quite a good CEO, but like I like
Well, there's a good example. Does the

02:09:06.560 --> 02:09:11.277
CEO of Axel Springer run his own company,
>> right? Like, well, there's a fascin

02:09:11.360 --> 02:09:13.997
Okay, so there's a fascinating thing
playing out right now. Not to dwell on

02:09:14.080 --> 02:09:18.317
these fires. Um, but um, it's a you see
the pressure reveals things, right? And

02:09:18.400 --> 02:09:21.597
so if you've been watching what's
happened with the LA Times recently, so

02:09:21.680 --> 02:09:24.717
so this guy biotech entrepreneur buys
the LA Times like whatever 8 years ago.

02:09:24.800 --> 02:09:29.117
Um it is just like the most radical
social revolutionary thing you can

02:09:29.200 --> 02:09:32.557
possibly imagine. It endorses every
crazy leftwing radical you can imagine.

02:09:32.640 --> 02:09:36.317
It endorses Karen Bass. It endorses
Gavin Newsome. It's just like an litany

02:09:36.400 --> 02:09:39.357
of all the people who are currently
burning the city to the ground. It's

02:09:39.440 --> 02:09:42.637
just like endorsed every single bad
person every step of the way. Um he's

02:09:42.720 --> 02:09:46.397
owned it the entire time. you know,
he put his foot down right before for the

02:09:46.480 --> 02:09:48.877
first time, I think, put his foot down
right before the November election and

02:09:48.960 --> 02:09:51.517
said, "We're not we're getting he said
we're going to get out of this thing

02:09:51.600 --> 02:09:53.357
where we just always endorse
the Democrat and we said we're not

02:09:53.440 --> 02:09:55.757
endorsing." I think he said, "We're not
endorsing for the for the presidency."

02:09:55.840 --> 02:09:57.517
And like the paper flipped out, right?

02:09:57.600 --> 02:10:01.117
It's like our billionaire backer who and I
don't know what he spends, but like he

02:10:01.200 --> 02:10:04.637
must be burning 50 or $100 million
a year out of his pocket to keep this

02:10:04.720 --> 02:10:09.677
thing running. He paid 500 million for it,
which is amazing. U back when people

02:10:09.760 --> 02:10:13.917
still thought these things [laughter]
were businesses. Um, and then he's

02:10:14.000 --> 02:10:17.917
probably burned another 500 million over
the last decade keeping it running. And

02:10:18.000 --> 02:10:21.117
he burns probably another 50 100 million
a year to do this. And the journalists

02:10:21.200 --> 02:10:25.197
at the LA Times hate him with the fury
of a thousand sons. Like they just like

02:10:25.280 --> 02:10:28.557
absolutely freaking despise him.
And they have been like attacking him. And

02:10:28.640 --> 02:10:30.957
you know the ones that can get jobs
elsewhere quit and do it. And the rest

02:10:31.040 --> 02:10:33.357
just stay and say the worst, you know,
most horrible things about him. And they

02:10:33.440 --> 02:10:37.917
want to constantly run these stories
attacking him. Um, and so he has had

02:10:38.000 --> 02:10:41.117
this reaction that a lot of people in LA
LA are having right now to to this fire

02:10:41.200 --> 02:10:44.397
and to this just like incredibly vivid
collapse of leadership and all these

02:10:44.480 --> 02:10:48.877
people that he had his paper head
endorsed are just disastrous. Um, and he

02:10:48.960 --> 02:10:53.357
he's on this tour. He's basically just
he's decided he's he's decided to be the

02:10:53.440 --> 02:10:56.237
the boy who says the emperor has no
clothes, but he's doing it to his own

02:10:56.320 --> 02:10:59.357
newspaper. Very smart guy. He's on a
press tour and he's basically saying,

02:10:59.440 --> 02:11:02.557
"Yeah, we we yes, we did all that and we
endorsed all these people and it was a

02:11:02.640 --> 02:11:05.437
huge mistake and we're going
to completely change." and his paper is,

02:11:05.520 --> 02:11:07.837
you know, in a complete internal revolt.

02:11:07.920 --> 02:11:10.157
But I go through it, which is, okay,
now we have a very interesting question,

02:11:10.240 --> 02:11:12.877
which is who runs the LA Times because

02:11:12.960 --> 02:11:17.277
for the last eight years,
it hasn't been him. [laughter]

02:11:17.360 --> 02:11:21.357
It it's been the reporters. Now,
for the first time, the owner is

02:11:21.440 --> 02:11:23.837
showing up saying, "Oh, no. I'm actually
in charge." And the reporters are

02:11:23.920 --> 02:11:27.277
saying, "No, you're not." And like like

02:11:27.360 --> 02:11:30.877
it is freaking on. And so, again, if
the Machavelian's mindset on this is like,

02:11:30.960 --> 02:11:35.117
"Okay, how is power actually exercised
here? Can can can a guy who's like even

02:11:35.200 --> 02:11:38.237
super rich and super powerful, who even
owns his own newspaper, can he stand up

02:11:38.320 --> 02:11:41.917
to a full-scale assault, not only
by his own reporters, but by every other

02:11:42.000 --> 02:11:45.437
journalism outlet who also
now thinks he's the antichrist.

02:11:45.520 --> 02:11:49.517
>> And he is trying to exercise power by
speaking out publicly. And so that's the

02:11:49.600 --> 02:11:52.397
game of power there >> and firing
people and you know he has

02:11:52.480 --> 02:11:53.917
removed people and he has set new rules.

02:11:54.000 --> 02:11:57.117
I mean he he is he is now I think
at long I think he's saying he's now at

02:11:57.200 --> 02:12:00.317
long last actually exercising
prerogatives of an owner of a business

02:12:00.400 --> 02:12:02.957
which is to decide on the policies
and staffing of the business. there are

02:12:03.040 --> 02:12:05.597
certain other owners of these
publications that are doing similar

02:12:05.680 --> 02:12:08.957
things right now. Um, he's the one I
don't know, so he's the one I can talk

02:12:09.040 --> 02:12:12.477
about. Um, but there are others that are
going through the same thing right now.

02:12:12.560 --> 02:12:16.317
Um, and I think it's a really
interesting open question like you know

02:12:16.400 --> 02:12:19.277
in a fight between the employees and
the employer. Like it's not crystal clear

02:12:19.360 --> 02:12:20.797
that the employer wins that one.

02:12:20.880 --> 02:12:23.837
>> And just to stay on journalism for
a second, we mentioned Bill Aman. I just

02:12:23.920 --> 02:12:29.037
want to say put him in the category we
mentioned before of a really courageous

02:12:29.120 --> 02:12:30.637
person. I don't think I've ever seen

02:12:30.720 --> 02:12:34.157
anybody so fearless

02:12:34.240 --> 02:12:36.557
in going after,

02:12:36.640 --> 02:12:38.237
you know, in following what he believes

02:12:38.320 --> 02:12:42.077
in publicly. That's courage. That that

02:12:42.160 --> 02:12:46.637
that several things he's done publicly
has been really inspiring. Just being

02:12:46.720 --> 02:12:49.197
courageous. What do you think
is like the most impressive example

02:12:49.280 --> 02:12:51.917
>> where he went after a journalist

02:12:52.000 --> 02:12:55.357
>> whose whole incentive is to like I mean

02:12:55.440 --> 02:12:57.997
it's uh it's like sticking your like

02:12:58.080 --> 02:13:02.557
kicking the beehive or whatever.
You know what's going to follow

02:13:02.640 --> 02:13:06.797
>> and to do that. I mean, that's why
it's difficult to challenge journalistic

02:13:06.880 --> 02:13:10.637
organizations because they're going to,
you know, there's just so many

02:13:10.720 --> 02:13:13.837
mechanisms they use, including like
writing articles and get cited by

02:13:13.920 --> 02:13:15.917
Wikipedia, then drive the narrative and

02:13:16.000 --> 02:13:17.437
then they can get you fired, all this

02:13:17.520 --> 02:13:21.037
kind of stuff. Bill Aman like a bad mfer

02:13:21.120 --> 02:13:25.517
just just tweets these essays and just

02:13:25.600 --> 02:13:31.037
goes after them uh legally and also
in the public eye and just I I don't know

02:13:31.120 --> 02:13:32.397
that was truly inspiring. And there's

02:13:32.480 --> 02:13:35.437
not many people like that out uh in

02:13:35.520 --> 02:13:40.557
public. And I hopefully that inspires
not just me but many others to be like

02:13:40.640 --> 02:13:44.397
to be courageous themselves.
>> Did you know of him before he started

02:13:44.480 --> 02:13:47.597
doing this in public? >> I knew
of Ner his his wife. She's this

02:13:47.680 --> 02:13:50.957
brilliant researcher and scientist.
And so I I admire her, look up to her. I

02:13:51.040 --> 02:13:53.277
think she's amazing. >> Well,
the reason I asked if you knew

02:13:53.360 --> 02:13:56.477
about Bill is because a lot of people
had not heard of him before, especially

02:13:56.560 --> 02:13:59.437
like before October 7th and before some
of the campaigns he's been running since

02:13:59.520 --> 02:14:03.197
in public, but um and with Harvard and so
forth. But um he was very well known

02:14:03.280 --> 02:14:07.277
in the in the investment world before
before that. So uh he was a famous um he

02:14:07.360 --> 02:14:11.117
was a so-called acti activist investor
for you know very very successful and

02:14:11.200 --> 02:14:15.517
very widely respected for probably 30
years before before before now. And and

02:14:15.600 --> 02:14:18.077
I bring that up because it it turns
out they weren't [clears throat] for the

02:14:18.160 --> 02:14:20.557
most part battles that happened in kind
of full public view. They weren't

02:14:20.640 --> 02:14:23.917
national stories. But in the business
and investing world it the activist

02:14:24.000 --> 02:14:27.277
investor is a very it's like in the movie
Taken. It's a very specific set of

02:14:27.360 --> 02:14:32.317
skills. um >> yeah, [laughter] >>
on how to like really take control of

02:14:32.400 --> 02:14:36.157
situations um and how to wreck
the people who you're going up against. Um

02:14:36.240 --> 02:14:41.117
and um just and there's lot there's been
controversy over the years on this topic

02:14:41.200 --> 02:14:44.317
and there's too much detail to go into
but the the defensive activist investing

02:14:44.400 --> 02:14:47.997
which I think is valid is um you know
these are the guys who basically go in

02:14:48.080 --> 02:14:51.277
and take stakes in companies that are
being poorly managed or underoptimized

02:14:51.360 --> 02:14:54.397
and and and and then generally what
that means is at least the theory is that

02:14:54.480 --> 02:14:59.197
means the existing management has become
entrenched and lazy mediocre you know

02:14:59.280 --> 02:15:02.797
whatever not you know responding
to the needs of the shareholders often not

02:15:02.880 --> 02:15:07.037
responding to the customers um
And the activists basically go in with a

02:15:07.120 --> 02:15:10.397
minority position and then they rally
support among other investors who are

02:15:10.480 --> 02:15:13.837
not activists. Um and then they
basically show up and they force change.

02:15:13.920 --> 02:15:17.597
Um but they are the aggressive version
of this. Um and I've been on the I've

02:15:17.680 --> 02:15:20.317
been involved in companies that have
been on the receiving end of these.

02:15:20.400 --> 02:15:24.157
>> Um where it is amazing how much
somebody like that can exert pressure on

02:15:24.240 --> 02:15:27.757
situations even when they don't have
formal control. So So it's another it

02:15:27.840 --> 02:15:31.037
would be another chess piece on the
mechanical board of kind of how power

02:15:31.120 --> 02:15:33.437
gets exercised. And basically what
happens is the effective analysts a

02:15:33.520 --> 02:15:36.237
large amount of the time they end up
taking they end up taking over control

02:15:36.320 --> 02:15:39.597
of companies even though they never own
more than like 5% of the stock. And so

02:15:39.680 --> 02:15:42.317
anyway, so it turns out with Bill's been
it's such a fascinating case because he

02:15:42.400 --> 02:15:44.637
has that like complete skill set.

02:15:44.720 --> 02:15:49.437
>> Um and he has now decided to bring
it to bear in areas that are not just

02:15:49.520 --> 02:15:53.117
companies. And two interesting things
for that. One is you know some of these

02:15:53.200 --> 02:15:55.517
places you know and some of these
battles are still ongoing. But number

02:15:55.600 --> 02:15:59.357
one, like a lot of people who run
universities or newspapers are not used

02:15:59.440 --> 02:16:01.437
to being up against somebody like this.

02:16:01.520 --> 02:16:04.157
U and by the way, also now with
infinitely deep pockets and lots of

02:16:04.240 --> 02:16:06.957
experience in courtrooms and all the
things that kind of go with that. Um but

02:16:07.040 --> 02:16:11.117
the other is through example,
he is teaching a lot of the rest of us the

02:16:11.200 --> 02:16:15.517
activist playbook like in real time.
And so the Liam Niss skill set is getting

02:16:15.600 --> 02:16:19.677
more broadly diffused um just by being
able to watch and learn from him. So I I

02:16:19.760 --> 02:16:22.557
think he I think he's having a you know
I would put him up there with Elon in

02:16:22.640 --> 02:16:25.677
terms of somebody who's really
affecting how all this is playing out.

02:16:25.760 --> 02:16:27.597
>> But even skill set
aside just courage and

02:16:27.680 --> 02:16:30.797
>> Yes. including by the way c
courage to go outside of his own zone.

02:16:30.880 --> 02:16:33.117
>> Yeah. >> Right.
Um you know because like he

02:16:33.200 --> 02:16:35.677
hasn't I'll give you an example like
my my firm venture capital firm we have

02:16:35.760 --> 02:16:39.357
LPs. There are things that I feel like
I can't do or say because I feel like I

02:16:39.440 --> 02:16:42.557
would be bringing you know I would
be bringing embarrassment or other

02:16:42.640 --> 02:16:45.837
consequences to our LPs. He has
investors also where he worries about

02:16:45.920 --> 02:16:48.397
that. Um, and so his so a couple things.

02:16:48.480 --> 02:16:51.837
One is his willingness to go out a bit
and risk his relationship with his own

02:16:51.920 --> 02:16:55.197
investors. But I will tell you the other
thing which is his investors I know this

02:16:55.280 --> 02:16:58.957
for a fact. His investors have been
remarkably supportive of him doing that

02:16:59.040 --> 02:17:04.317
because as it turns out a lot of them
actually agree with him. Um, and so he's

02:17:04.400 --> 02:17:07.037
the same thing he does in his activism
campaigns. He is able to be the tip of

02:17:07.120 --> 02:17:09.997
the spear on something that actually
a lot more people agree with.

02:17:10.080 --> 02:17:15.437
>> Yeah. It turns out if you have truth
behind you, it it helps. And just again,

02:17:15.520 --> 02:17:18.557
you know, how I started is a lot
of people are just fed up. [snorts]

02:17:18.640 --> 02:17:22.397
>> You've been spending a bunch of time
in Mara Lago in Palm Beach helping the new

02:17:22.480 --> 02:17:24.637
administration in many ways including uh

02:17:24.720 --> 02:17:29.597
interviewing people who might join.
So uh what's your general sense about the

02:17:29.680 --> 02:17:32.877
talent about the people who are
coming in into the new administration?

02:17:32.960 --> 02:17:36.397
>> Yeah. So I should start by saying I'm
not a member of the new administration.

02:17:36.480 --> 02:17:39.997
Um I'm not I'm not in the I'm not like
in the room when a lot of these people

02:17:40.080 --> 02:17:42.877
are being selected.
>> I believe you said unpaid intern. I am

02:17:42.960 --> 02:17:46.477
an unpaid intern. Uh so I'm I'm
a volunteer and you know when helpful, but

02:17:46.560 --> 02:17:49.357
I'm not I I'm not making the decisions,
nor am I in a position to, you know,

02:17:49.440 --> 02:17:52.157
speak for the administration. So I don't
want to say anything that would cause

02:17:52.240 --> 02:17:54.637
people to think I'm doing that. There's
a very unusual situation, right, where

02:17:54.720 --> 02:17:57.117
you had an incumbent president and then
you had a four-year gap where he's out

02:17:57.200 --> 02:18:00.397
of office and then you have him coming
back, right? Um and as you'll recall,

02:18:00.480 --> 02:18:04.477
there was a fair amount of controversy
over the end of the first term.

02:18:04.560 --> 02:18:08.637
>> Oh, yeah. >> The fear, the specific
concern was um you know, the first Trump

02:18:08.720 --> 02:18:11.277
administration, they you know, they they
will all say this is like they didn't

02:18:11.360 --> 02:18:13.837
come in with a team, right? So they they
you know they didn't come into the team

02:18:13.920 --> 02:18:17.197
and most of the sort of institutional
base of the Republican party were Bush

02:18:17.280 --> 02:18:20.077
Republicans and they were and many
of them had become never Trumpers and so

02:18:20.160 --> 02:18:22.877
they had a hard time putting the team
together and then by the way they had a

02:18:22.960 --> 02:18:25.917
hard time getting people confirmed
and so if you talk to the people who were

02:18:26.000 --> 02:18:28.717
there in the first term it took them two
to three years to kind of even get the

02:18:28.800 --> 02:18:31.757
government in place and then they
basically only had the government in

02:18:31.840 --> 02:18:35.917
place for um you know for basically like
18 months and then co hit you know and

02:18:36.000 --> 02:18:38.397
then sort of the aftermath and everything
and all the all the drama and

02:18:38.480 --> 02:18:41.757
headlines and everything and so the
the concern you know including from some

02:18:41.840 --> 02:18:44.477
very smart people in the last two years
has been, boy, if Trump gets a second

02:18:44.560 --> 02:18:48.237
term, is he going to be able to get
a team that is as good as the team he had

02:18:48.320 --> 02:18:51.517
last time or a team that is actually
not as good? Cuz maybe people got burned

02:18:51.600 --> 02:18:53.117
out, maybe they're more cynical now.

02:18:53.200 --> 02:18:56.077
Maybe they're not willing to go through
the drama. By the way, a lot of people

02:18:56.160 --> 02:18:58.797
on in the first term came under like,
you know, their own withering legal

02:18:58.880 --> 02:19:01.277
assaults and, you know, some of them
went to prison and like, you know, a lot

02:19:01.360 --> 02:19:05.757
of a lot of stuff happened. Uh, lots
of investigations, lots of legal fees, um,

02:19:05.840 --> 02:19:09.917
lots of bad press. Um, lots of debunking.
By the way, a lot of the

02:19:10.000 --> 02:19:12.877
officials in the first Trump
term got debunked. [gasps]

02:19:12.960 --> 02:19:16.077
Um, including
the president's wife and son.

02:19:16.160 --> 02:19:17.277
>> Yeah, I heard you tell that story.

02:19:17.360 --> 02:19:18.877
That's insane. That's just insane.

02:19:18.960 --> 02:19:22.397
>> In the wake of the first term, yes,
we we now take out spouses and children

02:19:22.480 --> 02:19:27.117
with our ring of power. Um, and so there
there's like this legitimate question as

02:19:27.200 --> 02:19:29.997
to like whether okay, what what will the
team for the second term look like? And

02:19:30.080 --> 02:19:32.957
at least what I've seen and what you're
seeing this appointments is it looks

02:19:33.040 --> 02:19:36.397
much much better. Um, first of all,
it just looks better than the first term.

02:19:36.480 --> 02:19:38.957
and not because the people in the first
term were not necessarily good, but just

02:19:39.040 --> 02:19:42.237
you you just have this like influx of like
incredibly capable people that have

02:19:42.320 --> 02:19:43.997
shown up that want to be part of this.

02:19:44.080 --> 02:19:47.517
Um, and you just didn't have that the
first time. Um, and so they they're just

02:19:47.600 --> 02:19:50.717
drawing on a much deeper, richer talent
pool than they had the first time. And

02:19:50.800 --> 02:19:53.757
and they're drawing on people who know
what the game is. Like they're drawing

02:19:53.840 --> 02:19:56.477
on people now who know what is going
to happen and they're still willing to do

02:19:56.560 --> 02:19:59.677
it. Um, and so they're going to get,
I think, you know, some of the best people

02:19:59.760 --> 02:20:01.837
from the first term, but they're
bringing in a lot of people who they

02:20:01.920 --> 02:20:03.997
couldn't get uh the first time around.

02:20:04.080 --> 02:20:07.597
Um, and then second is there's a bunch
of people, including people in the first

02:20:07.680 --> 02:20:09.437
term, where they're just 10 years older.

02:20:09.520 --> 02:20:11.997
Um, and so they went through the first
term and they just learned how

02:20:12.080 --> 02:20:15.277
everything works. Um, or they're young
people who just had a different point of

02:20:15.360 --> 02:20:19.197
view and now they're 10 years older and
they're ready to go serve in government.

02:20:19.280 --> 02:20:21.757
Um, and so there's a generational shift
happening. And actually, one of the

02:20:21.840 --> 02:20:25.597
interesting things about the team that's
forming up is it's remarkably young.

02:20:25.680 --> 02:20:28.397
some of the cabinet members and then
many of the second and third level

02:20:28.480 --> 02:20:32.157
people are like in their 30s and 40s
you know which is a big change from the

02:20:32.240 --> 02:20:36.397
gerontocracy that you know we've been
under for the last 30 years um and so I

02:20:36.480 --> 02:20:39.117
think the caliber has been outstanding
you know and we could sit here and list

02:20:39.200 --> 02:20:42.237
tons and tons of people but like you
know the people who are running you know

02:20:42.320 --> 02:20:44.637
it's everything from the people who are
running all the different departments at

02:20:44.720 --> 02:20:48.397
HHS it's the people running you know the
the number two at the Pentagon is Steve

02:20:48.480 --> 02:20:51.437
Fineberg who's just like an incredible
legend of private equity incredible

02:20:51.520 --> 02:20:54.397
capable guy um we've got uh two actually

02:20:54.480 --> 02:20:59.357
two of my partners are going who I both
think are amazing. Yeah. Like many many

02:20:59.440 --> 02:21:00.637
parts of the government the people are

02:21:00.720 --> 02:21:02.957
like really impressive. Well, I think

02:21:03.040 --> 02:21:06.797
one of the concerns is is actually that

02:21:06.880 --> 02:21:10.157
um given the human being of Donald Trump

02:21:10.240 --> 02:21:12.797
that there would be more tendency

02:21:12.880 --> 02:21:16.397
towards let's say favoritism versus

02:21:16.480 --> 02:21:19.917
meritocracy that there's kind of circles

02:21:20.000 --> 02:21:22.877
of sickopancy that form and if you're be

02:21:22.960 --> 02:21:26.477
able to uh be loyal

02:21:26.560 --> 02:21:31.277
and never oppose and just be uh
basically suck up to the president that

02:21:31.360 --> 02:21:34.397
you'll get a position. So, that's one
of the concerns and I think you're in a

02:21:34.480 --> 02:21:36.557
good position to speak to the degree

02:21:36.640 --> 02:21:41.917
that's happening versus uh
hiring based on merit and just

02:21:42.000 --> 02:21:45.037
getting great teams. >> Yeah.
So, look, I just start by saying

02:21:45.120 --> 02:21:49.117
any leader at that level, by the way,
any CEO, there's always some risk of

02:21:49.200 --> 02:21:51.597
that, right? So, there there's always
some, you know, it's just it's like a

02:21:51.680 --> 02:21:54.877
natural reality warps around around
powerful leaders. And so, there's always

02:21:54.960 --> 02:21:57.357
some risk to that. Of course, the good
powerful leaders are, you know, very

02:21:57.440 --> 02:21:59.997
aware of that. And Trump at this point
in his life, I think, is highly aware of

02:22:00.080 --> 02:22:02.957
that. at least my interactions with him
like he he he definitely seems very

02:22:03.040 --> 02:22:07.277
aware of that. So um so so that's one
thing I would just say that I think the

02:22:07.360 --> 02:22:09.677
way to look at that I mean look like
I said I don't want to predict what's

02:22:09.760 --> 02:22:12.557
going to happen once this whole thing
starts unfolding but um I I would just

02:22:12.640 --> 02:22:15.597
say again the caliber of the people who
are showing up and getting the jobs and

02:22:15.680 --> 02:22:18.557
then the fact that these are some of the
most accomplished people in the business

02:22:18.640 --> 02:22:22.317
world um and in the medical field um I I

02:22:22.400 --> 02:22:26.397
just you know Jay Badataria coming in to
run NIH when so I was actually in the I

02:22:26.480 --> 02:22:29.917
was actually I was part of the interview
team for a lot of the HHS folks um

02:22:30.000 --> 02:22:33.437
>> Jay is amazing. Oh I was so I was so
happy to see that. So, I literally got,

02:22:33.520 --> 02:22:36.077
this is a story, I got to the the the
transition office for one of the days of

02:22:36.160 --> 02:22:38.717
the HHS interviews and I was on one
of the interviewing teams and they gave us

02:22:38.800 --> 02:22:40.797
I didn't know who the candidates
were and they gave us the sheet in the

02:22:40.880 --> 02:22:43.837
beginning and I go down the sheet
and I saw Jay's name and I like I almost

02:22:43.920 --> 02:22:45.117
physically fell out of my chair.

02:22:45.200 --> 02:22:49.997
>> Yeah. >> And I was just like,
you know, and I have I happen to know

02:22:50.080 --> 02:22:52.317
Jay. I happen to know Jay and I like
respect him enormously. And then he

02:22:52.400 --> 02:22:55.277
proved himself under this like talk
about a guy who proved himself under

02:22:55.360 --> 02:22:57.837
extraordinary pressure
uh over the last 5 years

02:22:57.920 --> 02:23:01.037
>> and then go radical under the pressure.

02:23:01.120 --> 02:23:05.277
He maintained balance and thoughtfulness
and depth. I mean, incredible.

02:23:05.360 --> 02:23:07.437
>> Very serious, very analytical, very

02:23:07.520 --> 02:23:10.557
applied and and and and yes, 100% tested

02:23:10.640 --> 02:23:14.557
under pressure, came out like the more
people look back at what he said and did

02:23:14.640 --> 02:23:19.037
and you know, he's not, you know, none
of us are perfect, but like overwhelmingly

02:23:19.120 --> 02:23:21.757
like overwhelmingly insightful
throughout that whole period. Um, and

02:23:21.840 --> 02:23:24.157
you know, we you know, we would all
be much better off today had he been in

02:23:24.240 --> 02:23:28.157
charge of the response. Um, and and so
just like an incredibly capable guy and

02:23:28.240 --> 02:23:30.557
and look and and then he learned from all
that, right? and he he learned a lot

02:23:30.640 --> 02:23:33.837
in the last 5 years. Um and so the idea
that somebody like that could be head of

02:23:33.920 --> 02:23:37.677
NIH as compared to the people we've had
is just like breathtakingly it's just a

02:23:37.760 --> 02:23:42.077
gigantic upgrade. Um you know and then
Marty Machery coming in to run FDA exact

02:23:42.160 --> 02:23:44.477
same thing. Um the guy coming to run CDC

02:23:44.560 --> 02:23:47.917
exact same thing. Um um um I mean I've

02:23:48.000 --> 02:23:51.597
been spending time with Dr. Oz. Um so
um you know I'm not like as again I'm not

02:23:51.680 --> 02:23:54.317
like I'm not on these teams. I'm not
in the room, but like I've been spending

02:23:54.400 --> 02:23:57.917
enough time trying to help that like his
level of insight into into the healthare

02:23:58.000 --> 02:24:01.517
system is like it's like astounding.
And it comes from being a guy who's been

02:24:01.600 --> 02:24:03.997
like in the middle of the whole thing
and been talking to people about this

02:24:04.080 --> 02:24:06.877
stuff and working on it and serving
as a doctor himself and in medical systems

02:24:06.960 --> 02:24:10.397
for, you know, his entire life and is just
like, you know, he's like a walking

02:24:10.480 --> 02:24:13.677
encyclopedia on these things and so and,
you know, very dynamic, you know, very

02:24:13.760 --> 02:24:18.397
charismatic, very smart, organized,
effective. Um so you know to have

02:24:18.480 --> 02:24:21.997
somebody like that in there and so
anyway there just I have like 30 of

02:24:22.080 --> 02:24:24.717
these stories now across all these
different um all these different

02:24:24.800 --> 02:24:28.637
positions and so I and then I just I'd
be quite honest I you do the compare and

02:24:28.720 --> 02:24:31.917
contrast of the last four years and it
not even these people are not in the

02:24:32.000 --> 02:24:34.557
same ballpark. They're just like wildly

02:24:34.640 --> 02:24:39.197
better. Um, and so it, you know,
pound-for-pound is maybe the best team

02:24:39.280 --> 02:24:43.837
in the White House since, you know,
I don't even know, maybe the '9s, maybe

02:24:43.920 --> 02:24:48.237
the maybe the 30s, maybe the ' 50s.
[clears throat] You

02:24:48.320 --> 02:24:51.677
know, maybe Eisenhower had a team like
this or something, but um, it it's it's

02:24:51.760 --> 02:24:53.357
there's a lot of really
good people in there now.

02:24:53.440 --> 02:24:56.797
>> Yeah, the potential for change
is certain extremely high. What can you

02:24:56.880 --> 02:24:58.877
speak to Doge?

02:24:58.960 --> 02:25:02.797
What's the most wildly successful

02:25:02.880 --> 02:25:05.757
next two years for Doge? Can you imagine

02:25:05.840 --> 02:25:10.797
maybe also can you think about the
trajectory that's the most likely and uh

02:25:10.880 --> 02:25:12.877
what kind of challenges
would it be facing?

02:25:12.960 --> 02:25:16.717
>> Yeah. So, and I start by saying again
I'm not disclaimer. I have to disclaim.

02:25:16.800 --> 02:25:19.917
I'm not on Doge.
[laughter] I'm not a member of Doge.

02:25:20.000 --> 02:25:24.077
>> We should say there's about 10 lawyers
in the room. They're staring. No, I'm

02:25:24.160 --> 02:25:26.797
just kidding.
>> Both the angels and the devils on my

02:25:26.880 --> 02:25:30.477
shoulder are lawyers. So, um yeah. So,
I'm not speaking for Doge. Um I'm not in

02:25:30.560 --> 02:25:33.277
charge of Doge. >> Um those
guys are doing it. I'm not

02:25:33.360 --> 02:25:36.157
doing it. But I am, you know, again,
I'm I'm volunteering to help as much as I

02:25:36.240 --> 02:25:41.037
can. Um, and I'm 100% supportive. Um,
yeah. So, look, I I I think the way to

02:25:41.120 --> 02:25:44.077
think, I mean, the the basic outlines
are in public, right, which is it's a

02:25:44.160 --> 02:25:47.597
it's a time limited, you know, basically
commission. Um, uh, it's not a formal

02:25:47.680 --> 02:25:52.637
government agency. Um, it's a, you know,
time limited 18-month um, it'll it'll in

02:25:52.720 --> 02:25:55.917
terms of implementation, it will advise
the executive branch, right? And so, the

02:25:56.000 --> 02:25:59.757
the the implementation will happen
through the the White House. Um, and the

02:25:59.840 --> 02:26:03.837
president has total attitude on what he
wants to what he wants to implement. Um

02:26:03.920 --> 02:26:07.277
and then basically I think about it
is the three kind of streams you know kind

02:26:07.360 --> 02:26:11.837
of target sets and they're related
but different. So money uh people and

02:26:11.920 --> 02:26:15.117
regulations um and so you
know the headline number

02:26:15.200 --> 02:26:17.677
they you know put us the $2 trillion
number and there's already you know

02:26:17.760 --> 02:26:20.397
disputes over over that and whatever and
there's a whole question there but then

02:26:20.480 --> 02:26:23.517
there's the people thing and the people
thing is interesting because you get

02:26:23.600 --> 02:26:27.517
into these very um kind of um
fascinating questions. Um, and I've been

02:26:27.600 --> 02:26:30.877
doing this I I won't do this for you
as a pop quiz, but I do this for people in

02:26:30.960 --> 02:26:34.237
government as a pop quiz and I can stump
them every time, which is a how many

02:26:34.320 --> 02:26:36.317
federal agencies are there? >> Mhm.

02:26:36.400 --> 02:26:41.277
>> And the answer is somewhere between
450 and 520 and nobody's quite sure. And

02:26:41.360 --> 02:26:44.797
then the other is how many people work
for the federal government? Um, and the

02:26:44.880 --> 02:26:47.437
answer is, you know, something
on the order I forget, but like 4 million

02:26:47.520 --> 02:26:50.877
full-time employees and maybe up to 20
million contractors, and nobody is quite

02:26:50.960 --> 02:26:55.837
sure. And so there's a large people
component to this. Um and then by the

02:26:55.920 --> 02:26:58.077
way there's a related component to that
which is how many of them are actually

02:26:58.160 --> 02:27:02.397
in the office and the answer is not many.
most of the federal buildings are

02:27:02.480 --> 02:27:05.597
still empty, right? And so, and then
there's questions of like are people,

02:27:05.680 --> 02:27:08.477
you know, working from home? Are we
actually working from home? So, there's

02:27:08.560 --> 02:27:11.277
the people dimension and of course the
money and the people are connected. And

02:27:11.360 --> 02:27:14.237
then there's the third which is the
the regulation thing, right? And I I

02:27:14.320 --> 02:27:17.437
described earlier how basically
our system of government is much more now

02:27:17.520 --> 02:27:21.437
based on regulations than legislation,
right? Most of the rules that we all

02:27:21.520 --> 02:27:24.717
live under are not from a bill that went
through Congress. They're from an agency

02:27:24.800 --> 02:27:28.797
that that created a regulation. That
turns out to be very very important. So

02:27:28.880 --> 02:27:31.837
one is Elon have already described
we want to do the Doge wants to do

02:27:31.920 --> 02:27:35.117
broad-based regulatory relief and Trump
has talked about this and basically get

02:27:35.200 --> 02:27:38.157
the government off people's backs and
liberate the American people to be able

02:27:38.240 --> 02:27:41.357
to do things again. Um so that's part
of it but there's also something else

02:27:41.440 --> 02:27:43.837
that's happened which is very
interesting which was there were a set

02:27:43.920 --> 02:27:45.357
of Supreme Court decisions about 2 years

02:27:45.440 --> 02:27:48.477
ago um that went directly after the idea

02:27:48.560 --> 02:27:52.557
that the executive branch can
create regulatory agencies and issue

02:27:52.640 --> 02:27:55.597
regulations and enforce those
regulations without corresponding

02:27:55.680 --> 02:27:58.557
congressional legislation. Um, and most

02:27:58.640 --> 02:28:03.197
of the federal government that exists
today, including most of the departments

02:28:03.280 --> 02:28:06.557
and most of the rules and most of the
money and most of the people, most of it

02:28:06.640 --> 02:28:11.437
is not enforcing laws the Congress passed.
Most of it is is regulation. And

02:28:11.520 --> 02:28:13.437
the Supreme Court basically said large

02:28:13.520 --> 02:28:18.717
parts, you know, large to maybe all
of that regulation that did not directly

02:28:18.800 --> 02:28:21.757
result from a bill that went through
Congress the way that the cartoon said

02:28:21.840 --> 02:28:24.317
that it should. Um, that may not

02:28:24.400 --> 02:28:29.277
actually be legal. Now, the previous
White House, of course, was super in

02:28:29.360 --> 02:28:31.757
favor of big government. They had no
desire to act. They did nothing based on

02:28:31.840 --> 02:28:35.757
this. They they didn't, you know, pull
anything back in. But the new regime, if

02:28:35.840 --> 02:28:39.837
they choose to, could say, "Look, the
the thing that we're doing here is not,

02:28:39.920 --> 02:28:43.197
you know, challenging the laws.
We're actually complying with the Supreme

02:28:43.280 --> 02:28:46.717
Court decision that basically says we
have to unwind a lot of this and we have

02:28:46.800 --> 02:28:50.237
to unwind the regulations, which are no
longer legal, constitutional. We have to

02:28:50.320 --> 02:28:54.157
unwind the spend and we have to unwind
the people." Um and and so and that's

02:28:54.240 --> 02:28:56.957
how you get from basically you connect
the thread from the regulation part back

02:28:57.040 --> 02:29:00.477
to the money part back to the people part.
Um they have work going on all

02:29:00.560 --> 02:29:03.757
three of these threads. They have I
would say incredibly creative ideas on

02:29:03.840 --> 02:29:07.997
how to deal with this. Um I'm I I know
lots of former government people who

02:29:08.080 --> 02:29:10.557
100% of them are super cynical
on this topic. And they're like this is

02:29:10.640 --> 02:29:14.317
impossible. This could never possibly
work. And I'm like well I can't tell you

02:29:14.400 --> 02:29:19.037
what the secret plans are but like
like blow my mind. like and all three of

02:29:19.120 --> 02:29:22.637
those like they they have ideas that are
like really quite amazing as you'd

02:29:22.720 --> 02:29:25.837
expect from you know from from the
people involved and so um over the

02:29:25.920 --> 02:29:29.037
course of the next few months you know
that'll start to become visible and then

02:29:29.120 --> 02:29:33.357
the final thing I would say is um this
is going to be very different than than

02:29:33.440 --> 02:29:37.597
attempts like there have been other
programs like this in the past um the

02:29:37.680 --> 02:29:40.317
Clinton Gore administration had one
and then there were others before that

02:29:40.400 --> 02:29:43.197
Reagan had one um the the difference is

02:29:43.280 --> 02:29:46.157
at this time their social media

02:29:46.240 --> 02:29:50.637
>> um and so There has
never been like it's

02:29:50.720 --> 02:29:53.277
interesting. One of the reasons people
in Washington are so cynical is because

02:29:53.360 --> 02:29:57.437
they know all the [__] Like they
know all the bad spending and all the

02:29:57.520 --> 02:30:00.957
bad rules and all the like, you know,
I mean, look, we're adding a trillion

02:30:01.040 --> 02:30:05.037
dollars to the national debt every 100
days right now. And that's compounding

02:30:05.120 --> 02:30:08.317
and it's now passing the size of the
Defense Department budget. And it's

02:30:08.400 --> 02:30:10.397
compounding. And it's pretty soon it's
going to be adding a trillion dollars

02:30:10.480 --> 02:30:13.037
every 90 days. And then it's going to be
adding a trillion dollars every 80 days.

02:30:13.120 --> 02:30:15.917
And then it's going to be a trillion
dollars every 70 days. And then if this

02:30:16.000 --> 02:30:19.037
doesn't get fixed at some point,
we enter a hyperinflationary spiral and we

02:30:19.120 --> 02:30:22.157
become Argentina or Brazil and

02:30:22.240 --> 02:30:26.477
Kabooi, right? And so like everybody
in DC knows that something has to be done

02:30:26.560 --> 02:30:30.637
and then everybody in DC knows for a fact
that it's impossible to do anything,

02:30:30.720 --> 02:30:33.277
right? They know all the problems
and they also know the sheer impossibility

02:30:33.360 --> 02:30:36.477
of fixing it. But I think what they're
not taking into account, what the

02:30:36.560 --> 02:30:41.037
critics are not taking into account is
these guys can do this in the full light

02:30:41.120 --> 02:30:43.677
of day and they can do it on social media.
They can completely bypass the

02:30:43.760 --> 02:30:47.677
press. They can completely bypass
the cynicism. They can expose any element

02:30:47.760 --> 02:30:51.117
of, you know, unconstitutional or,
you know, silly government spending. They

02:30:51.200 --> 02:30:54.077
can run victory laps every single day
on what they're doing. They can they can

02:30:54.160 --> 02:30:57.357
bring the people into the process. And
again, if you think about it, this goes

02:30:57.440 --> 02:30:59.917
back to our Mabelian uh structure, which

02:31:00.000 --> 02:31:04.557
is if you think about again, you've got
democracy, oligarchy, monarchy, rule of

02:31:04.640 --> 02:31:07.997
the many, rule of the few, rule
of the one. You could think about what's

02:31:08.080 --> 02:31:11.277
happening here as a little bit of a
sandwich, right? which is you have you

02:31:11.360 --> 02:31:14.157
have we don't have a monarch but we have
a president rule of the one with some

02:31:14.240 --> 02:31:18.317
power and then we have the people who
can't organize but they can be informed

02:31:18.400 --> 02:31:21.517
and they can be aware and they can
express themselves through voting and

02:31:21.600 --> 02:31:25.437
polling right and so there's a sandwich
happening right now is the way to think

02:31:25.520 --> 02:31:28.877
about it which is you've got basically
monarch monarchy you've got rule of one

02:31:28.960 --> 02:31:32.157
combining with rule of many right
and rule of many is they do get to vote

02:31:32.240 --> 02:31:36.237
right the people do get to vote
basically and then essentially congress

02:31:36.320 --> 02:31:39.117
as in this sort of permanent
bureaucratic class in Washington as the

02:31:39.200 --> 02:31:44.157
oligarchy in the middle. And so
the White House plus the people um I think

02:31:44.240 --> 02:31:47.037
have the power to do all kinds of things
here. And I and I think that that would

02:31:47.120 --> 02:31:48.397
be the way I would watch it.

02:31:48.480 --> 02:31:50.237
>> The transparency

02:31:50.320 --> 02:31:55.197
I mean Elon just uh by who he is in is

02:31:55.280 --> 02:31:58.877
incentivized to be transparent
and show the [__] in the system and to

02:31:58.960 --> 02:32:01.117
celebrate the victories. So it's going

02:32:01.200 --> 02:32:03.197
to be so exciting. I mean honestly just

02:32:03.280 --> 02:32:06.397
makes government more exciting which is

02:32:06.480 --> 02:32:10.237
a win for everybody.
These people are spending our money.

02:32:10.320 --> 02:32:13.597
>> Yeah, >> these people
have enormous contempt for

02:32:13.680 --> 02:32:16.717
the taxpayer. Okay, here's the thing
you hear in Washington. Here's one of the

02:32:16.800 --> 02:32:19.117
things. So, the first thing you hear
is this is impossible. They'll be able to

02:32:19.200 --> 02:32:21.677
do nothing. And then I walk them through
this and they're like, they start to get

02:32:21.760 --> 02:32:24.237
it starts to dawn on them that this is
a new kind of thing. And then they're

02:32:24.320 --> 02:32:27.197
like, well, it doesn't matter because
all the money is in entitlements and the

02:32:27.280 --> 02:32:31.117
debt and the military. And so, like,
yeah, you've got like this silly fake

02:32:31.200 --> 02:32:35.037
whatever, you know, NPR funding
or whatever. And like it just it's a

02:32:35.120 --> 02:32:35.997
rounding error and it doesn't matter.

02:32:36.080 --> 02:32:39.997
and you look it up in the budget
and it's like whatever $500 million or $5

02:32:40.080 --> 02:32:43.597
billion or it's the or it's the the
the the it's the charging stations that

02:32:43.680 --> 02:32:46.157
don't exist. It's the $40 billion
of charging stations and they build eight

02:32:46.240 --> 02:32:50.157
charging stations or it's the it's
the broadband internet plan that delivered

02:32:50.240 --> 02:32:54.237
broadband to nobody, right? And cost
you $30 billion like so these these

02:32:54.320 --> 02:32:57.117
boondoggles and what everybody in
Washington says is that $30 billion is a

02:32:57.200 --> 02:32:59.917
rounding error on the federal budget.
It doesn't matter. Who cares if they if

02:33:00.000 --> 02:33:03.777
they if if they make it go away? And
of course any taxpayer is like what the

02:33:03.860 --> 02:33:05.837
[laughter] >> what do you mean?

02:33:05.920 --> 02:33:09.997
>> It's $30 billion. >> Yeah.
>> Right. And then then then the experts

02:33:10.080 --> 02:33:12.717
are like and the press is in on this too.
Then the experts are like, "Well,

02:33:12.800 --> 02:33:15.037
it doesn't it doesn't matter because
it's a rounding." No, no, it's $30

02:33:15.120 --> 02:33:19.037
billion. And if you're this cavalier
about $30 billion, imagine how cavalier

02:33:19.120 --> 02:33:20.317
you are about the three trillion.

02:33:20.400 --> 02:33:24.637
>> Yeah. >> Okay. Then there's the Okay,
$30 billion. Is $30 billion a lot of the

02:33:24.720 --> 02:33:28.077
federal budget in a percentage? No, it's
not. But $30 billion divided by 30, do

02:33:28.160 --> 02:33:31.517
the math. $30 billion divided
by let's say 300 million taxpayers,

02:33:31.600 --> 02:33:34.557
>> right? Like what's that math expert?

02:33:34.640 --> 02:33:37.597
>> $100. >> $100 per
taxpayer per year. Okay. So

02:33:37.680 --> 02:33:41.037
$100 to an ordinary person working hard

02:33:41.120 --> 02:33:42.957
every day to make money and provide for

02:33:43.040 --> 02:33:46.397
their kids. $100 is a meal out. It's a

02:33:46.480 --> 02:33:50.237
trip to the amusement park. It's
the ability to, you know, buy additional

02:33:50.320 --> 02:33:53.837
educational materials. It's the ability
to have a babysitter, to be able to have

02:33:53.920 --> 02:33:55.357
a romantic relationship with your wife.

02:33:55.440 --> 02:33:59.037
It's there's like a hundred things
that that person can do with $100 that

02:33:59.120 --> 02:34:02.717
they're not doing cuz it's going to some
[__] program that is being basically

02:34:02.800 --> 02:34:06.157
where the money is being looted out
in the form of just like ridiculous

02:34:06.240 --> 02:34:09.677
ridiculousness and graft. And so
the idea that that $30 billion program is

02:34:09.760 --> 02:34:12.717
not something that is like a very
important thing to go after is just like

02:34:12.800 --> 02:34:17.597
the level of contempt for the taxpayer
>> is just off the charts. And then that's

02:34:17.680 --> 02:34:21.677
just one of those programs and there's
like a hundred of those programs and

02:34:21.760 --> 02:34:24.157
they're all just like that. Like it's
not like any of this stuff is running

02:34:24.240 --> 02:34:26.717
well. Like the one thing we know is that
none of this stuff is running well. Like

02:34:26.800 --> 02:34:29.757
we know that for sure, right? And we
like we know these people aren't showing

02:34:29.840 --> 02:34:32.557
up to work and like we know that all
this crazy stuff is happening, right? Um

02:34:32.640 --> 02:34:36.797
and like you know the the do you
remember Elon's story of the um do you

02:34:36.880 --> 02:34:39.837
remember Elon's story of what got the
Amish to turn out to vote in Pennsylvania?

02:34:39.920 --> 02:34:42.797
>> Oh, okay. So like Pennsylvania. Okay.
So Pennsylvania is like a wonderful state,

02:34:42.880 --> 02:34:45.917
great history. It has these cities like
Philadelphia that have descended like

02:34:46.000 --> 02:34:49.037
other cities into just like complete
chaos, violent madness, and death,

02:34:49.120 --> 02:34:52.237
right? And the federal government has
just like let it happen. It's incredibly

02:34:52.320 --> 02:34:55.757
violent places. And so the Biden
administration decided that the big

02:34:55.840 --> 02:34:58.397
pressing law enforcement thing that they
needed to do in Pennsylvania was that

02:34:58.480 --> 02:35:03.357
they needed to start raiding Amish farms
to prevent them from selling raw milk

02:35:03.440 --> 02:35:05.677
with armed raids, >> right?

02:35:05.760 --> 02:35:10.397
>> And it turns out it really pissed off
the Amish. And it turns out they weren't

02:35:10.480 --> 02:35:13.517
willing to drive to the polling places
cuz they don't have cars. But if you

02:35:13.600 --> 02:35:16.157
came and got them, they would go
and they would vote. And that's one of the

02:35:16.240 --> 02:35:19.757
reasons why Trump won. Anyway, so like
the law enforcement agencies are off

02:35:19.840 --> 02:35:21.917
working on like crazy things. like the

02:35:22.000 --> 02:35:24.477
system's not working. And so you you add

02:35:24.560 --> 02:35:27.197
up just pick a $130 billion programs.

02:35:27.280 --> 02:35:29.037
All right. Now you're okay, math major.

02:35:29.120 --> 02:35:34.077
100 times 100 >> 10,000 >> $10,000.
Okay. $10,000 per taxpayer per year.

02:35:34.160 --> 02:35:38.157
>> And but but it's also not just about
money that's really obviously money is a

02:35:38.240 --> 02:35:39.277
hugely important thing, but it's the

02:35:39.360 --> 02:35:41.997
cavalier attitude. Yes. That then in

02:35:42.080 --> 02:35:45.597
sort of in the ripple effect of that,

02:35:45.680 --> 02:35:50.237
>> it makes it so nobody wants to work
in government and be productive. It makes

02:35:50.320 --> 02:35:52.557
it so that corruption can it breeds

02:35:52.640 --> 02:35:55.677
corruption. It breeds laziness. It

02:35:55.760 --> 02:35:59.597
breeds secrecy because you don't want to
be transparent about having done nothing

02:35:59.680 --> 02:36:03.517
all year. All this kind of stuff. You
don't want to reverse that. So it would

02:36:03.600 --> 02:36:05.597
be exciting for the future to work at

02:36:05.680 --> 02:36:08.557
government to because the the amazing

02:36:08.640 --> 02:36:10.877
thing if you're the steel man government

02:36:10.960 --> 02:36:13.837
is you can do [__] at scale. you have

02:36:13.920 --> 02:36:16.077
money and you can directly impact

02:36:16.160 --> 02:36:19.037
people's lives in a positive uh sense at

02:36:19.120 --> 02:36:22.397
scale. That's it's super exciting. As

02:36:22.480 --> 02:36:25.037
long as there's no bureaucracy that

02:36:25.120 --> 02:36:29.437
slows you down or not huge amounts
of bureaucracy that slows you down

02:36:29.520 --> 02:36:31.837
significantly. >> Yeah. So,
uh here's here's the trick.

02:36:31.920 --> 02:36:36.077
This blew my mind because I was you
know once you look into once you open the

02:36:36.160 --> 02:36:39.517
hell mouth of looking into the federal
budget you learn all kinds of things.

02:36:39.600 --> 02:36:43.837
Um, so there is a term of art
in government called impoundment.

02:36:43.920 --> 02:36:45.997
>> And so you you if
you're like me, you've

02:36:46.080 --> 02:36:48.957
learned this the hard way when your car
has been impounded. The government

02:36:49.040 --> 02:36:51.517
meaning of empoundment, the federal
budget meaning is a is a different

02:36:51.600 --> 02:36:53.997
meaning. Um, empoundment is as follows.

02:36:54.080 --> 02:36:57.757
The constitution uh requires Congress
to authorize money to be spent by the

02:36:57.840 --> 02:37:00.957
executive branch. Right? So the the the
executive branch goes to Congress, says

02:37:01.040 --> 02:37:03.677
we need money X. Congress does their
thing. They come back and they say you

02:37:03.760 --> 02:37:06.477
can have money Y. The money
is appropriated from Congress. the

02:37:06.560 --> 02:37:09.117
executive branch spends it on the military
or whatever they spend it on or

02:37:09.200 --> 02:37:14.157
on roads to nowhere, charging stations
to nowhere or whatever. Um the the and

02:37:14.240 --> 02:37:16.077
what's in the constitution is the the

02:37:16.160 --> 02:37:18.797
Congress appropriates the money. Um over

02:37:18.880 --> 02:37:23.197
the last 60 years um there has
been an additional interpretation of

02:37:23.280 --> 02:37:27.197
appropriations applied by the courts
um and by the system um which is the

02:37:27.280 --> 02:37:31.357
executive branch not only needs Congress
to appropriate X amount of money, the

02:37:31.440 --> 02:37:33.677
executive branch is not
allowed to underspend.

02:37:33.760 --> 02:37:37.357
>> Yeah, I'm aware of this.
I'm aware of this.

02:37:37.440 --> 02:37:40.317
>> And so there's this thing that happens
in Washington at the end of every fiscal

02:37:40.400 --> 02:37:44.157
year, which is September 30th, and it's
the it's the great budget flush. And any

02:37:44.240 --> 02:37:46.717
remaining money that's in the system
that they don't know how to productively

02:37:46.800 --> 02:37:49.437
spend, they deliberately
spend it unproductively.

02:37:49.520 --> 02:37:52.397
>> Yeah. >> To the tune
of hundreds and hundreds of

02:37:52.480 --> 02:37:55.597
billions of dollars. A president that
doesn't want to spend the money can't

02:37:55.680 --> 02:38:00.237
not spend it. >> Yeah. >> Like,
okay, a that's not what's in the

02:38:00.320 --> 02:38:03.037
Constitution. Um, and there's actually
quite a good Wikipedia page that goes

02:38:03.120 --> 02:38:05.597
through the the great debate on this has
played out in the legal world over the

02:38:05.680 --> 02:38:08.957
last 60 years. And like basically,
if you look at this with anything

02:38:09.040 --> 02:38:11.117
resembling, I think an open mind, you're
like, "All right, this is not what the

02:38:11.200 --> 02:38:13.517
founders meant." Um, and then number

02:38:13.600 --> 02:38:14.877
two, again, we go back to this thing of

02:38:14.960 --> 02:38:20.557
contempt. Like, can you imagine [snorts]
showing up and running the government

02:38:20.640 --> 02:38:23.037
like that and thinking that you're doing
the right thing and not going home at

02:38:23.120 --> 02:38:26.797
night and thinking that you've sold
your soul, right? Like it's just like I

02:38:26.880 --> 02:38:29.517
actually think you sort of hit a really
good point which is it's even unfair to

02:38:29.600 --> 02:38:31.117
the people who have to execute this.

02:38:31.200 --> 02:38:32.877
>> Yeah. >> Right.
Because it it makes them it makes

02:38:32.960 --> 02:38:34.957
them bad people and they didn't they
didn't start out wanting to be bad

02:38:35.040 --> 02:38:38.957
people. And so there is stuff
like this like >> Yeah. Everywhere.

02:38:39.040 --> 02:38:42.877
>> Everywhere. And so we'll see how
far these guys get. I'm I am extremely

02:38:42.960 --> 02:38:44.557
encouraged what I've
what I've seen so far.

02:38:44.640 --> 02:38:47.677
>> It seems like a lot of people will try
to slow them down but yeah hope they get

02:38:47.760 --> 02:38:50.637
far. >> Yeah. >> Another
difficult topic, immigration.

02:38:50.720 --> 02:38:52.877
What's your take on the uh let's say

02:38:52.960 --> 02:38:55.517
heated H-1B visa debate that's going on

02:38:55.600 --> 02:38:59.037
online and legal immigration in general?

02:38:59.120 --> 02:39:02.637
>> Yeah, so I should start by saying I am
not involved in any aspect of government

02:39:02.720 --> 02:39:06.637
policy on this. I'm not planning to be
this is not an issue that I'm working on

02:39:06.720 --> 02:39:09.517
or that I'm going to work on. I'm we're
not this is not part of the agenda of

02:39:09.600 --> 02:39:13.197
what the firm is doing. So my firm
is doing. So like I'm not I'm not in I'm

02:39:13.280 --> 02:39:17.197
not in this in the new administration
or the government. I'm not planning to be.

02:39:17.280 --> 02:39:19.997
So purely just personal opinion. So I

02:39:20.080 --> 02:39:24.477
would say I would describe as a complex
or nuanced hopefully nuanced view on on

02:39:24.560 --> 02:39:27.117
this issue that's maybe a little bit
different than what a lot of my peers

02:39:27.200 --> 02:39:31.517
have. Um and I think and I kind of thought
about this you know I didn't say

02:39:31.600 --> 02:39:33.757
anything about it all the way through
the big kind of debate over Christmas

02:39:33.840 --> 02:39:37.197
but I thought about it a lot read
everything. Um I think what I realized

02:39:37.280 --> 02:39:40.157
is that I just have a very different
perspective on some of these things and

02:39:40.240 --> 02:39:43.357
the reason is because of the combination
of where I came from and then where I

02:39:43.440 --> 02:39:47.117
ended up. Um and so um let's start with

02:39:47.200 --> 02:39:50.957
this. I where I ended up in Silicon
Valley. So, um, and I have made the

02:39:51.040 --> 02:39:54.637
proskilled high skilled immigration
argument many, many times, the H-1B

02:39:54.720 --> 02:39:59.117
argument many times in past lives.
I've been in DC many times, arguing with

02:39:59.200 --> 02:40:03.037
prior administrations about this, always
on the side of trying to get more H1Bs

02:40:03.120 --> 02:40:05.837
and trying to get more high skilled
immigration. Um, and, you know, I think

02:40:05.920 --> 02:40:08.317
that argument is very strong and very

02:40:08.400 --> 02:40:12.877
solid and very um, you know, has paid
off for the US in some in many many ways

02:40:12.960 --> 02:40:15.437
and we can go through it, but I think
it's the argument everybody already

02:40:15.520 --> 02:40:18.317
knows, right? It's like the stock You
take any Silicon Valley person, you

02:40:18.400 --> 02:40:20.637
press the button and they tell you why
we need to brain drain the world to get

02:40:20.720 --> 02:40:23.357
more H1Bs, right? So everybody
kind of gets that argument.

02:40:23.440 --> 02:40:27.277
>> So it's basically just to summarize,
it's a mechanism by which you can get

02:40:27.360 --> 02:40:28.717
super smart people from the rest of the

02:40:28.800 --> 02:40:34.717
world, import them in, keep them here
to uh increase the productivity of the US

02:40:34.800 --> 02:40:36.717
companies. >> Yeah.
and and then and then and then

02:40:36.800 --> 02:40:40.237
that it's not just good for the them and
it's not just good for Silicon Valley or

02:40:40.320 --> 02:40:42.877
the tech industry, it's good for the
country because they then create new

02:40:42.960 --> 02:40:46.157
companies and create new technologies
and create new industries that then

02:40:46.240 --> 02:40:49.517
create many more jobs for Americans,
nativeborn Americans than would have

02:40:49.600 --> 02:40:53.597
previously existed. And so you've got
a it's a positive sum flywheel thing where

02:40:53.680 --> 02:40:55.357
everybody wins like everybody wins.

02:40:55.440 --> 02:40:59.277
There are no trade-offs. It's all
absolutely glorious in all directions.

02:40:59.360 --> 02:41:02.957
You cannot possibly there cannot
possibly be a moral right argument

02:41:03.040 --> 02:41:04.237
against it under any circumstances.

02:41:04.320 --> 02:41:06.797
anybody who argues against it
is obviously doing so from a position of

02:41:06.880 --> 02:41:11.677
racism is probably a fascist than a Nazi.
Right. [laughter] Right. I mean, >> right.

02:41:11.760 --> 02:41:14.157
>> That's the thing. And like I said, I've
made that argument many times. I'm I'm

02:41:14.240 --> 02:41:16.557
very comfortable with that argument. And
then I'd also say, look, I I I would say

02:41:16.640 --> 02:41:19.517
number one, I believe a lot of it.
I'll talk about the parts I don't believe,

02:41:19.600 --> 02:41:22.877
but I believe a lot of it. And then
the other part is look, I I benefit every

02:41:22.960 --> 02:41:27.677
day. I I I always describe it as I work
in in the United Nations. like I my own

02:41:27.760 --> 02:41:29.677
firm and our founders and our companies

02:41:29.760 --> 02:41:33.197
and the industry um and my friends um

02:41:33.280 --> 02:41:35.597
you know are just this like amazing you

02:41:35.680 --> 02:41:41.277
know paniply cornucopia of people
from all over the world um and you know I

02:41:41.360 --> 02:41:43.757
just I've worked I don't know at this
point with people from it's got to be I

02:41:43.840 --> 02:41:46.557
don't know 80 countries or something
um and hopefully over time it'll be you

02:41:46.640 --> 02:41:49.757
know the rest as well and you know it's
just it's been amazing and they've done

02:41:49.840 --> 02:41:52.317
many of the most important things
in my industry and it's it's been really

02:41:52.400 --> 02:41:56.637
remarkable so so that's all good um
and And then you know there's just the

02:41:56.720 --> 02:41:59.197
practical version of the argument which
is we are the we are the main place

02:41:59.280 --> 02:42:02.077
these people get educated anyway right
they the the best and the brightest tend

02:42:02.160 --> 02:42:05.197
to come here to get educated and so you
know this is the old kind of Mitt Romney

02:42:05.280 --> 02:42:08.557
staple of green card to every you
know at least you know maybe not every

02:42:08.640 --> 02:42:13.037
university degree but every technical
degree maybe the sociologists we could

02:42:13.120 --> 02:42:16.637
quibble about but you know
the roboticists for sure for sure for sure

02:42:16.720 --> 02:42:18.877
we can all agree that >> at least
I won you over on something

02:42:18.960 --> 02:42:22.477
today. Well, no.
I'm I'm exaggerating for effect. So,

02:42:22.560 --> 02:42:24.957
>> and I lost you. I had you for a second.

02:42:25.040 --> 02:42:26.637
>> I haven't gotten to the other
side of the argument yet.

02:42:26.720 --> 02:42:29.597
>> Okay. Thank you.
>> So, surely we can all agree

02:42:29.680 --> 02:42:31.597
>> that uh we need to staple a green card.

02:42:31.680 --> 02:42:32.957
>> The roller coaster is going up.

02:42:33.040 --> 02:42:36.717
>> The roller coaster is ratcheting slowly
up. So, um yeah. So, surely we can all

02:42:36.800 --> 02:42:39.357
agree that the roboticist should all get
green cards. And again, like there's a

02:42:39.440 --> 02:42:41.837
lot of merit to that. Obviously,
like look, we want the US to be the world

02:42:41.920 --> 02:42:45.197
leader in robotics. What's step one
to being the world leader in robotics is

02:42:45.280 --> 02:42:48.477
have all the great robotics people,
right? like you know very unlike the

02:42:48.560 --> 02:42:51.357
underpants gnome it's like a very
straightforward formula right

02:42:51.440 --> 02:42:53.917
>> all right that's all well and good
all right but it gets a little bit more

02:42:54.000 --> 02:42:57.917
complicated um because um there is a
kind of argument that's sort of right

02:42:58.000 --> 02:43:00.717
underneath that that you also hear
from you know these same people and I have

02:43:00.800 --> 02:43:04.077
made this argument myself many times
which is we need to do this because we

02:43:04.160 --> 02:43:07.437
don't have enough people in the US who
can do it otherwise right we have all

02:43:07.520 --> 02:43:09.997
these unfilled jobs we've got all
these you know all these companies that

02:43:10.080 --> 02:43:12.637
wouldn't exist we don't have enough good
founders we don't have enough engineers

02:43:12.720 --> 02:43:15.517
we don't have enough scientists or or
then the next version of the argument

02:43:15.600 --> 02:43:19.117
below that is our education system
is not good enough to generate those

02:43:19.200 --> 02:43:22.797
people. Um, and which is a weird
argument by the way cuz like our

02:43:22.880 --> 02:43:25.517
education system is good enough
for foreigners to be able to come here

02:43:25.600 --> 02:43:29.117
preferentially in like a very large
number of cases but somehow not good

02:43:29.200 --> 02:43:32.637
enough to educate our own nativeorn
people. So there's like a weird these

02:43:32.720 --> 02:43:35.677
little cracks in the matrix that you can
kind of stick your fingernail into and

02:43:35.760 --> 02:43:39.517
kind of wonder about and we'll come back
to that one but like at least yes our

02:43:39.600 --> 02:43:42.717
education system has its flaws and then
and then underneath that is the is the

02:43:42.800 --> 02:43:45.917
argument that you know VC made um
you know which is you know we have a

02:43:46.000 --> 02:43:49.517
cultural rot in the country and you know
native born people in the country aren't

02:43:49.600 --> 02:43:52.237
you know don't work hard enough and spend
too much time watching TV and Tik

02:43:52.320 --> 02:43:56.397
Tok and don't spend enough time studying
differential you know equations. Um and

02:43:56.480 --> 02:43:59.117
again it's like all right like you know
yeah there's a fair amount to that like

02:43:59.200 --> 02:44:03.357
there's a lot of American culture
that um is um you know there's a lot of

02:44:03.440 --> 02:44:06.397
frivvality there's a lot of you know
look I mean we have well doumented

02:44:06.480 --> 02:44:10.077
social issues on many fronts many things
that cut against having a culture of

02:44:10.160 --> 02:44:14.157
just like straightforward high
achievement and and effort and striving

02:44:14.240 --> 02:44:17.197
anyway like you know those are the basic
arguments um but then I have this kind

02:44:17.280 --> 02:44:20.557
of other side of my you know kind of
personality and thought process which is

02:44:20.640 --> 02:44:24.397
well I grew up in a small farming town
in rural Wisconsin the rural Midwest and

02:44:24.480 --> 02:44:27.357
you know it's interesting there's not
a lot of people who make it from rural

02:44:27.440 --> 02:44:30.317
Wisconsin to, you know, high-tech.

02:44:30.400 --> 02:44:34.237
Um, and so it's like, all right, why
is that exactly right? And and I know I'm

02:44:34.320 --> 02:44:37.277
an aberration. Like I I was the only
one from anybody I ever knew who ever did

02:44:37.360 --> 02:44:39.997
this, right? That I know what
an aberration I am and I know exactly how

02:44:40.080 --> 02:44:43.917
that aberration happened and it's a very
unusual, you know, set of steps. Um,

02:44:44.000 --> 02:44:48.317
including, you know, many that were were
just luck. Um, but like it there is in

02:44:48.400 --> 02:44:50.637
no sense a talent flow from rural

02:44:50.720 --> 02:44:53.917
Wisconsin into high-tech. Like not at

02:44:54.000 --> 02:44:58.077
all. Um, there is also like in no
sense a talent flow from the rest of the

02:44:58.160 --> 02:45:00.957
Midwest into high-tech. There is no
talent flow from the South into

02:45:01.040 --> 02:45:03.917
high-tech. There is no flow from the
Sunb Belt into high-tech. There is no

02:45:04.000 --> 02:45:08.397
flow from, you know, the Deep South into
high-tech. Like just like literally it's

02:45:08.480 --> 02:45:12.877
like the blank SP there's this whole
section of the country that just where

02:45:12.960 --> 02:45:17.117
the people just like for some reason
don't end up in tech. Now, that's a

02:45:17.200 --> 02:45:20.717
little bit strange because these are
the people who put a man on the moon.

02:45:20.800 --> 02:45:22.397
>> These are the people
who built the World

02:45:22.480 --> 02:45:26.237
War II war machine. These are the people
at least their ancestors are the people

02:45:26.320 --> 02:45:29.357
who built the second industrial
revolution and built the railroads and

02:45:29.440 --> 02:45:32.717
built the telephone network telephone
network and built you know logistics and

02:45:32.800 --> 02:45:35.357
transportation in the auto ind. I mean
the auto industry was built in Cleveland

02:45:35.440 --> 02:45:39.197
and Detroit and so at least these
people's parents and grandparents and

02:45:39.280 --> 02:45:42.317
great-grandparents somehow had
the wherewithal to like build all of this

02:45:42.400 --> 02:45:45.517
like amazing things invent all these
things. And then there's many many many

02:45:45.600 --> 02:45:49.597
many stories in the history of American
invention and innovation and capitalism

02:45:49.680 --> 02:45:52.717
where you had people who grew up in the
middle of nowhere, Philo Farnsworth who

02:45:52.800 --> 02:45:55.757
invented the television and just like
you know tons and tons of others endless

02:45:55.840 --> 02:45:59.917
stories like this. Now you have like a
a puzzle, right, and a conundrum which is

02:46:00.000 --> 02:46:03.917
like, okay, like what is happening
on the blank spot of the map? And then of

02:46:04.000 --> 02:46:07.277
course you also can't help noticing that
the blank spot on the map, the Midwest,

02:46:07.360 --> 02:46:11.357
the South, you've also just
defined Trump country, [laughter]

02:46:11.440 --> 02:46:13.997
>> the Trump voter base, right? And it's
like, oh well, that's interesting. Like

02:46:14.080 --> 02:46:15.917
how how did that happen, right? Right.

02:46:16.000 --> 02:46:18.957
And so either you really really really
have to believe the very very strong

02:46:19.040 --> 02:46:21.757
version of like the VC thesis or something
where you have to believe that

02:46:21.840 --> 02:46:25.837
like that basically culture the whole
sort of civilization in the middle of

02:46:25.920 --> 02:46:29.197
the country and the south of the country
is so like deeply flawed either

02:46:29.280 --> 02:46:32.797
inherently flawed or culturally flawed
such that for whatever reason they are

02:46:32.880 --> 02:46:35.917
not able to do the things that their you
know parents and grandparents were able

02:46:36.000 --> 02:46:39.197
to do and that their peers were able to do
or something else is happening. Would

02:46:39.280 --> 02:46:40.877
you care to guess on what
else is happening? You

02:46:40.960 --> 02:46:42.397
>> mean what? Affirmative action.

02:46:42.480 --> 02:46:47.677
>> Affirmative action. Okay,
[laughter] this is very think

02:46:47.760 --> 02:46:48.797
about this is very entertaining, right?

02:46:48.880 --> 02:46:51.677
What are the three things that we
know about affirmative action? It is

02:46:51.760 --> 02:46:55.277
absolutely 100% necessary.

02:46:55.360 --> 02:46:59.997
But however, it cannot explain the success
of any one individual, >> right?

02:47:00.080 --> 02:47:02.157
>> Nor does it have any victims at all.

02:47:02.240 --> 02:47:06.157
>> That could explain maybe
disproportionate, but like it it surely

02:47:06.240 --> 02:47:10.557
doesn't explain why you're probably
the only person in Silicon Valley from

02:47:10.640 --> 02:47:14.077
Wisconsin. What educational institution
in the last 60 years has wanted farm

02:47:14.160 --> 02:47:17.757
boys from Wisconsin? >> But what
institution rejected farm boys

02:47:17.840 --> 02:47:19.357
from Wisconsin? >> All of them.

02:47:19.440 --> 02:47:22.077
>> All of them. >> Of course.
Okay. So, we know this. We

02:47:22.160 --> 02:47:24.957
know this. The reason we know this is
because of the Harvard and UNCC court

02:47:25.040 --> 02:47:28.317
Supreme Court cases. >> So,
this was like three years ago. These

02:47:28.400 --> 02:47:30.397
were these were big court cases.
And you know that because the idea of

02:47:30.480 --> 02:47:33.277
affirmative action has been litigated
for many many many years and through

02:47:33.360 --> 02:47:36.237
many court cases. And the Supreme Court
repeatedly in the past had upheld that

02:47:36.320 --> 02:47:39.437
it was a completely legitimate thing
to do. And a lot of these and there's

02:47:39.520 --> 02:47:42.557
basically two categories of affirmative
action that like really matter, right?

02:47:42.640 --> 02:47:46.077
The one is um the admissions into
educational institutions and then the

02:47:46.160 --> 02:47:47.997
other is jobs, right? Getting hired.

02:47:48.080 --> 02:47:49.677
Like those are the two biggest areas.

02:47:49.760 --> 02:47:52.957
The education one is like super potent
has been a super potent political issue

02:47:53.040 --> 02:47:55.597
for a very long time for all you know
people have written and talked about

02:47:55.680 --> 02:47:57.757
this for many decades. I don't I don't
need to go through it. There's many

02:47:57.840 --> 02:47:59.037
arguments for why it's important.

02:47:59.120 --> 02:48:02.157
There's many arguments as to how it
could backfire. It's been this thing.

02:48:02.240 --> 02:48:06.317
But the Supreme Court upheld it
for a very long time. Um the most the most

02:48:06.400 --> 02:48:07.597
recent ruling I don't I'm not a lawyer.

02:48:07.680 --> 02:48:11.917
I don't have the exact reference in my
head, but there was a case in 2003 that

02:48:12.000 --> 02:48:16.557
said that um Sandra Day Oconor famously
wrote that um you know it although it

02:48:16.640 --> 02:48:20.077
had been 30 years of affirmative action
and although it was not working remotely

02:48:20.160 --> 02:48:24.237
as it had had been intended um uh she
said that you know well basically we

02:48:24.320 --> 02:48:27.357
need to try it for another 25 years
but she said basically as a message to

02:48:27.440 --> 02:48:30.637
future Supreme Court justices if it
hasn't resolved basic basically the

02:48:30.720 --> 02:48:33.677
issues it's intended to resolve within
25 years then we should probably call it

02:48:33.760 --> 02:48:35.837
off. By the way we're coming up on the

02:48:35.920 --> 02:48:41.117
25 years. It's couple it's a couple
years away. Uh the Supreme Court just uh

02:48:41.200 --> 02:48:44.157
had these cases. It was a Harvard case
and I think a UT University of North

02:48:44.240 --> 02:48:47.437
Carolina case. And what's interesting
about those cases is the the lawyers in

02:48:47.520 --> 02:48:51.597
those cases put a tremendous amount
of evidence into the record of how the

02:48:51.680 --> 02:48:53.677
admissions decisions actually happen um

02:48:53.760 --> 02:48:56.637
at Harvard and happen at UNC. And it is

02:48:56.720 --> 02:48:58.877
like every bit as cartoonishly garish

02:48:58.960 --> 02:49:04.637
and racist as you could possibly imagine
because it's a ring of power. And if

02:49:04.720 --> 02:49:07.437
you're an admissions officer at a private
university or an administrator,

02:49:07.520 --> 02:49:11.437
you have unlimited power to do what you
want and you can justify any of it under

02:49:11.520 --> 02:49:16.077
any of these rules or systems. Um,
and up until these cases, it had been a

02:49:16.160 --> 02:49:18.877
black box where you didn't have to explain
yourself and show your work. And

02:49:18.960 --> 02:49:22.077
and what the Harvard and USC cases did
is they basically required showing the

02:49:22.160 --> 02:49:26.157
work. And so they and there was like all
kinds of like phenomenal detail. I mean,

02:49:26.240 --> 02:49:28.877
number one is there were text messages
in there that will just curl your hair

02:49:28.960 --> 02:49:31.997
of people of students being spoken
of and just like crude racial stereotypes

02:49:32.080 --> 02:49:35.277
that would just make you want to jump
out the window. It's horrible stuff. But

02:49:35.360 --> 02:49:38.797
also, um, there was statistical
information. And of course, the big

02:49:38.880 --> 02:49:42.077
statistical kicker to the whole thing
is that at top institutions, it's common

02:49:42.160 --> 02:49:43.757
for diff different ethnic groups to have

02:49:43.840 --> 02:49:46.637
different cutoffs for SAT, uh, that are

02:49:46.720 --> 02:49:49.757
as wide as 400 points. Um, right? So

02:49:49.840 --> 02:49:52.477
different groups. So it so so a

02:49:52.560 --> 02:49:56.877
specifically Asians need to perform
at 400 SAT points higher than other

02:49:56.960 --> 02:49:59.437
ethnicities in order to actually get
admitted into these I mean this is not

02:49:59.520 --> 02:50:01.917
even about I mean white people are
a part of this but like Asians are like a

02:50:02.000 --> 02:50:04.717
very big part of this and actually the
the Harvard case is actually brought by

02:50:04.800 --> 02:50:07.597
an activist on behalf of actually
the Asian students who are being turned

02:50:07.680 --> 02:50:11.677
away. Um, and it it's basically I mean
it's the cliche now in in in the valley

02:50:11.760 --> 02:50:14.317
and in the medical community which is like
if you want a super genius you hire

02:50:14.400 --> 02:50:18.477
an Asian from Harvard cuz they are
guaranteed to be freaking Einstein cuz

02:50:18.560 --> 02:50:21.757
if they weren't they were never getting
admitted right almost all the qualified

02:50:21.840 --> 02:50:25.197
Asians get turned away. Um so they've

02:50:25.280 --> 02:50:29.197
been running this it's a very very
explicit very very clear program. Um

02:50:29.280 --> 02:50:31.837
this of course has been a third rail
of things that people are not supposed to

02:50:31.920 --> 02:50:35.517
discuss or under any circumstances.
Um the thing that has really changed the

02:50:35.600 --> 02:50:37.117
tenor on this is I think two things.

02:50:37.200 --> 02:50:40.637
Number one, those Supreme Court cases,
the Supreme Court ruled that they can no

02:50:40.720 --> 02:50:44.637
longer do that. I will tell you,
I don't believe there's a single education

02:50:44.720 --> 02:50:46.957
institution in America that is
conforming with the Supreme Court

02:50:47.040 --> 02:50:50.877
ruling. Um, I think they are all
flagrantly ignoring it. And we we could

02:50:50.960 --> 02:50:53.517
talk about that >> mostly because
of momentum probably or what?

02:50:53.600 --> 02:50:55.757
>> They are trying to make the world
a better place. They are trying to solve

02:50:55.840 --> 02:50:59.117
all these social problems.
They are trying to have diverse student

02:50:59.200 --> 02:51:02.397
populations. They are trying to live
up to the expectations of their donors.

02:51:02.480 --> 02:51:06.557
They are trying to make their faculty
happy. they are trying to um have their

02:51:06.640 --> 02:51:09.757
friends and family think that
they're good people, >> right?

02:51:09.840 --> 02:51:12.957
>> They're trying to have the press
write nice things about them.

02:51:13.040 --> 02:51:15.037
Like it's nearly impossible for them.

02:51:15.120 --> 02:51:18.237
And and you know, to be clear, like
nobody has been fired from an admissions

02:51:18.320 --> 02:51:22.237
office for, you know, 25 years of prior
what we now the Supreme Court now has

02:51:22.320 --> 02:51:25.357
ruled to be illegality. Um and so
they're all the same people under the

02:51:25.440 --> 02:51:29.517
exact same pressures. Um, and so, um,
like I, you know, the numbers are moving

02:51:29.600 --> 02:51:32.557
a little bit, but like I don't think
I don't know anybody in the system who

02:51:32.640 --> 02:51:35.597
thinks that they're complying with the
Supreme Court. Like who's in charge in

02:51:35.680 --> 02:51:39.437
the rank ordering of who rules who, the
universities rule the Supreme Court way

02:51:39.520 --> 02:51:42.477
more than the Supreme Court rules
the universities, right? Well, another

02:51:42.560 --> 02:51:44.957
example of that is I think it's is
that every sitting member of the Supreme

02:51:45.040 --> 02:51:48.797
Court right now went to either Harvard
or or Yale, right? Like the the level of

02:51:48.880 --> 02:51:51.197
incestuousness here is like any anyway.

02:51:51.280 --> 02:51:54.477
So, so there's that and so so this has
been running for a very long time. So

02:51:54.560 --> 02:51:57.517
one is the Harvard and UNCC cases kind
of gave up the game number one or at

02:51:57.600 --> 02:52:00.637
least show showed what the mechanism was.
Uh and then number two, the other

02:52:00.720 --> 02:52:04.077
thing is obviously the the aftermath
of October 7th, right? Um and what we

02:52:04.160 --> 02:52:07.677
discovered was happening with Jewish
applicants. Um and what was happening at

02:52:07.760 --> 02:52:10.397
all the top institutions for Jewish
applicants was they were being managed

02:52:10.480 --> 02:52:13.117
down being actively managed down as a

02:52:13.200 --> 02:52:16.637
percentage of the of of the base. Um and

02:52:16.720 --> 02:52:21.117
um let's say I I've heard reports
of like extremely explicit um uh basically

02:52:21.200 --> 02:52:24.797
plans to manage to manage the Jewish
admissions down to their representative

02:52:24.880 --> 02:52:28.317
percentage of the US population which
is 2%. And and you know there's a whole

02:52:28.400 --> 02:52:31.277
backstory here which is 100 years ago
Jews were not admitted into a lot of

02:52:31.360 --> 02:52:34.317
these institutions and then there was
a big campaign to get them in. Once they

02:52:34.400 --> 02:52:37.597
could get in they immediately became 30%
of these institutions because there's so

02:52:37.680 --> 02:52:42.397
many smart talented Jews. So it went
from 0% to 30% and then the most recent

02:52:42.480 --> 02:52:45.757
generation of leadership has been
trying to get it down to 2%. And a lot of

02:52:45.840 --> 02:52:49.437
Jewish people, at least a lot of Jewish
people I know, sort of they kind of knew

02:52:49.520 --> 02:52:53.037
this was happening, but they discovered
it the hard way uh after October 7th,

02:52:53.120 --> 02:52:56.797
right? And so all of a sudden, so so
basically the the Supreme Court case

02:52:56.880 --> 02:53:00.957
meant that you could address this in
terms of the Asian victims. The October

02:53:01.040 --> 02:53:04.317
7th meant that you could address it
in terms of the Jewish victims. And for

02:53:04.400 --> 02:53:07.437
sure both of those groups are being
systematically excluded, right? And then

02:53:07.520 --> 02:53:10.797
of course um there's the thing that you
basically can't talk about which is all

02:53:10.880 --> 02:53:13.277
the white people are being excluded.

02:53:13.360 --> 02:53:17.677
And then it turns out it's also
happening to black people. And this is

02:53:17.760 --> 02:53:22.237
the thing that like blew my freaking
mind when I found out about it. So um I

02:53:22.320 --> 02:53:26.397
just assumed that like this was great
news for like American blacks because

02:53:26.480 --> 02:53:29.517
like you know obviously if you know
whites, Asians and Jews are being

02:53:29.600 --> 02:53:32.237
excluded then you know the whole point
of this in the beginning was to get the

02:53:32.320 --> 02:53:35.917
black population up and so this must
be great for American blacks. So then I

02:53:36.000 --> 02:53:40.717
discovered this New York Times article
from 2004 u called u blacks are being

02:53:40.800 --> 02:53:45.517
admitted into top schools
at greater numbers but which ones?

02:53:45.600 --> 02:53:48.077
>> Uhoh. >> And again
by the way this is in the New

02:53:48.160 --> 02:53:52.397
York Times. This is not in like you know
whatever national review. This is New

02:53:52.480 --> 02:53:55.357
York Times uh 2004. And the two
authorities that were quoted in the

02:53:55.440 --> 02:53:59.117
story are Henry Lewis Gates who's the dean
of the African-American studies you

02:53:59.200 --> 02:54:00.717
know community in the United States.

02:54:00.800 --> 02:54:02.157
Super brilliant guy. And then Lonni

02:54:02.240 --> 02:54:05.757
Guineir who was a she was a potential

02:54:05.840 --> 02:54:09.597
Supreme Court uh appointee under I think
uh close friend of Hillary Clinton and

02:54:09.680 --> 02:54:12.397
there was for a long time she was on the
short list for Supreme Court. So one of

02:54:12.480 --> 02:54:17.677
the top you know jurists lawyers
in the country both black um sort of

02:54:17.760 --> 02:54:21.277
legendarily successful in their in their
in the academic and legal worlds. Um and

02:54:21.360 --> 02:54:23.437
black um and they are quoted as the

02:54:23.520 --> 02:54:24.957
authorities in this story and the story

02:54:25.040 --> 02:54:28.477
that they tell is actually very it's

02:54:28.560 --> 02:54:32.237
amazing. Um and by the way it's
happening today in uh education

02:54:32.320 --> 02:54:34.717
institutions and it's happening
in companies and you can see it all over

02:54:34.800 --> 02:54:37.917
the place and the government um which is

02:54:38.000 --> 02:54:42.797
um at least at that time the number
was half of the black admits into a place

02:54:42.880 --> 02:54:44.317
like Harvard were not Americanborn

02:54:44.400 --> 02:54:47.117
blacks they were foreignb born blacks um

02:54:47.200 --> 02:54:50.957
specifically u uh northern African off

02:54:51.040 --> 02:54:54.797
generally Nigerian um or west Indian um

02:54:54.880 --> 02:54:58.877
right um and by the way many Nigerians
and northern Africans have come to the

02:54:58.960 --> 02:54:59.837
and have been very successful.

02:54:59.920 --> 02:55:02.957
Nigerian-Americans as a group like way
outperformed. They're, you know, this a

02:55:03.040 --> 02:55:05.997
super smart cohort of people.
And then West Indian blacks in the US are

02:55:06.080 --> 02:55:10.157
incredibly successful. Um, most recently,
by the way, Kla Harris as well

02:55:10.240 --> 02:55:14.637
as Colon Powell like just two sort
of examples of that. And so basically what

02:55:14.720 --> 02:55:18.317
Henry Lewis Gates and Lana Grineer said
in the story is Harvard is basically

02:55:18.400 --> 02:55:22.557
struggling to either whatever it
was identify, recruit, make successful,

02:55:22.640 --> 02:55:26.557
whatever it was, Americanborn native
blacks. And so therefore they were using

02:55:26.640 --> 02:55:29.837
high school immigration, high school
immigration as an escape hatch to go get

02:55:29.920 --> 02:55:34.317
blocks from other countries. Um and then
and then this was 2004 when you could

02:55:34.400 --> 02:55:36.637
discuss such things. Um obviously that

02:55:36.720 --> 02:55:41.757
is a topic that nobody has discussed
since. It has sailed on. All of the DEI

02:55:41.840 --> 02:55:45.677
programs of the last 20 years have had
this exact characteristic. Um there's

02:55:45.760 --> 02:55:48.717
large numbers of black people in America
who are fully aware of this and are like

02:55:48.800 --> 02:55:51.997
it's obviously not us that are getting
these slots where we're obviously we're

02:55:52.080 --> 02:55:55.437
literally competing with people who are
being imported and and you know if you

02:55:55.520 --> 02:55:57.917
believe in the basis of affirmative
action you are trying to make up for

02:55:58.000 --> 02:56:01.597
historical injustice of American black
slavery. So the idea that you're import

02:56:01.680 --> 02:56:06.237
somebody from you know Nigeria that
never experienced that um you know is

02:56:06.320 --> 02:56:10.237
like tremendously insulting to to to
black Americans. Anyway, so you can see

02:56:10.320 --> 02:56:13.597
where I'm heading with this.
We have been in a 60-year social engineer

02:56:13.680 --> 02:56:17.597
engineering experiment to exclude
nativeborn people from the educational

02:56:17.680 --> 02:56:20.237
slots and jobs that high school
immigration has been funneling

02:56:20.320 --> 02:56:24.317
foreigners into, right? And so it
turns out it's not a victim-free thing.

02:56:24.400 --> 02:56:27.757
There's there's like 100% there's
victims cuz why? There's only so many

02:56:27.840 --> 02:56:30.557
for sure there's only so many education
slots and then for sure there's only so

02:56:30.640 --> 02:56:33.997
many of these jobs, right? You know
Google only hires so many, you know,

02:56:34.080 --> 02:56:36.157
whatever level seven engineers, right?

02:56:36.240 --> 02:56:38.077
And so so so that's the other side of

02:56:38.160 --> 02:56:40.557
it, right? And so you're a farm boy in

02:56:40.640 --> 02:56:45.117
Wisconsin, right? Or a, you know, black
American whose ancestors arrived here,

02:56:45.200 --> 02:56:46.877
you know, on a slave ship 300 years ago

02:56:46.960 --> 02:56:49.917
in Louisiana or a, you know, Cambodian

02:56:50.000 --> 02:56:55.037
immigrant in, you know, the Bronx. Um,
and you're a kid or a Jewish immigrant,

02:56:55.120 --> 02:56:58.717
uh, or, you know, from a very successful
Jewish family. Um, and you know, your

02:56:58.800 --> 02:57:01.997
entire, you know, for three generations,
you and your parents and grandparents

02:57:02.080 --> 02:57:03.837
went to Harvard. And what all of those

02:57:03.920 --> 02:57:05.677
groups know is the system that has been

02:57:05.760 --> 02:57:09.037
created is not for them, right? It's

02:57:09.120 --> 02:57:11.037
designed specifically to exclude them.

02:57:11.120 --> 02:57:14.077
And then what happens is all of these
tech people show up in public and say,

02:57:14.160 --> 02:57:16.397
"Yeah, let's bring in more foreigners."

02:57:16.480 --> 02:57:19.757
Right? And so so anyway, so the the
the short version of it is you can't

02:57:19.840 --> 02:57:23.917
anymore, I don't think, just have
the the the um the the the quote high skil

02:57:24.000 --> 02:57:28.877
immigration conversation for either
education or for um uh or for employment

02:57:28.960 --> 02:57:32.717
without also having the DEI conversation.
Um and then underneath and

02:57:32.800 --> 02:57:35.037
then DEI is just another word
for affirmative action. So it's it's the

02:57:35.120 --> 02:57:38.077
affirmative action conversation and you
you need to actually deal with this it

02:57:38.160 --> 02:57:40.317
substance and to see what's actually
happening to people who needed to join

02:57:40.400 --> 02:57:45.117
these topics and and and I think it
is much harder to make the moral claim for

02:57:45.200 --> 02:57:48.957
high school immigration given the the
the extent to which DEI took over both

02:57:49.040 --> 02:57:52.237
the education hiring uh education
process and the and the hiring process.

02:57:52.320 --> 02:57:56.877
>> Okay. So first of all that was
brilliantly laid out the nuance of it.

02:57:56.960 --> 02:58:01.197
So, just to understand, it's not so
much a criticism of H1B, high skilled

02:58:01.280 --> 02:58:03.197
immigration. It's that there needs to be

02:58:03.280 --> 02:58:06.637
more people saying, "Yay, we need more

02:58:06.720 --> 02:58:10.237
Americanborn hires." >> So,
I spent the entire Christmas holiday

02:58:10.320 --> 02:58:13.567
reading every message on this and not
saying anything. And what I was,

02:58:13.650 --> 02:58:17.517
[laughter] which you know me well
enough to know that's a serious level of

02:58:17.600 --> 02:58:20.157
>> Yeah, that was very zen.
>> Yes. Thank you. Thank you. No, it

02:58:20.240 --> 02:58:23.837
wasn't. There was tremendous rage on
the other side of it, but we I suppressed

02:58:23.920 --> 02:58:28.317
it. So, um, I was waiting for the dog that

02:58:28.400 --> 02:58:31.997
didn't bark, right? And the dog that
didn't bark was I did not, and you tell

02:58:32.080 --> 02:58:34.797
me if you saw one, I did not see
a single example of somebody pounding the

02:58:34.880 --> 02:58:37.757
table for more high school immigration
who was also pounding the table to go

02:58:37.840 --> 02:58:41.597
get more smart kids who are already here
uh, into these educational institutions

02:58:41.680 --> 02:58:44.557
and into these jobs. I didn't
see I didn't see a single one.

02:58:44.640 --> 02:58:49.037
>> That's true. I I I think I agree with
that. There's there really was a divide,

02:58:49.120 --> 02:58:51.997
>> but it was like literally it was like
the proponents of five skilled immigrant

02:58:52.080 --> 02:58:54.717
and again, this was me for a very long
time. I mean, I kind of took myself by

02:58:54.800 --> 02:58:58.637
surprise on this because I was on,
you know, I I I I had the much say simpler

02:58:58.720 --> 02:59:01.037
version of this story for a very
long and like I said, I I've been in

02:59:01.120 --> 02:59:03.997
Washington many times under past
presidents lobbing for this, by the way,

02:59:04.080 --> 02:59:06.797
never made any progress, which we
could talk about, like it never actually

02:59:06.880 --> 02:59:10.557
worked. Um but um you know I I've been
on the other side of this one but I was

02:59:10.640 --> 02:59:13.117
literally sitting there and being like
all right which of these like super

02:59:13.200 --> 02:59:16.637
geniuses um who you know many of whom
by the way are very you know successful

02:59:16.720 --> 02:59:20.077
high school immigrants or children of high
school immigrants you know which of

02:59:20.160 --> 02:59:23.357
these super geniuses are going
to like say actually we have this like

02:59:23.440 --> 02:59:25.997
incredible talent source here in the
country which again to be clear I'm not

02:59:26.080 --> 02:59:28.397
talking about white people I'm talking
about native born Americans whites

02:59:28.480 --> 02:59:32.637
Asians Jews blacks for sure >>
for sure for sure those four groups

02:59:32.720 --> 02:59:36.237
>> but also white people.
Yeah. And and also white people,

02:59:36.320 --> 02:59:38.557
>> people that are making the case for

02:59:38.640 --> 02:59:41.277
Americanborn hires

02:59:41.360 --> 02:59:44.237
are usually not also supporting H-1B.

02:59:44.320 --> 02:59:46.797
This is it's an extreme divide and those

02:59:46.880 --> 02:59:48.317
people that are making that case are

02:59:48.400 --> 02:59:53.357
often not making it in a way that's like

02:59:53.440 --> 02:59:55.917
uh m making it in quite a radical way.

02:59:56.000 --> 02:59:57.757
Let's put it this way. >> Yeah.
But you have this interesting

02:59:57.840 --> 03:00:00.317
thing. You have a split between
the sides that I've noticed which is one

03:00:00.400 --> 03:00:02.637
side has all of the experts. >> Right.

03:00:02.720 --> 03:00:06.157
>> Right. And I and I'm using scare
for people listening to audio. I'm making

03:00:06.240 --> 03:00:08.637
quotes in the air with my fingers
as vigorously as I can.

03:00:08.720 --> 03:00:10.957
>> One side has all the certified experts.

03:00:11.040 --> 03:00:13.277
>> The other side just has a bunch
of people who are like they know that

03:00:13.360 --> 03:00:15.997
something is wrong and they don't
quite know how to explain it.

03:00:16.080 --> 03:00:18.877
>> And what was so unusual about
the Harvard UNCC cases by the way in front

03:00:18.960 --> 03:00:21.677
of Supreme Court is they actually had
sophisticated lawyers for the first time

03:00:21.760 --> 03:00:24.157
in a long time actually put all this
evidence together and actually put it in

03:00:24.240 --> 03:00:27.757
the public record. They actually they
actually had experts which is just which

03:00:27.840 --> 03:00:30.717
is just really rare. Generally what you
get is you get because if you don't have

03:00:30.800 --> 03:00:33.197
experts what do you have? you know
something is wrong and you have but you

03:00:33.280 --> 03:00:35.357
have primarily an emotional response.

03:00:35.440 --> 03:00:39.517
You feel it. But can you put it,
you know, can you put it in the words and

03:00:39.600 --> 03:00:43.597
tables and charts, you know, that that
a certified expert can and no, you can't.

03:00:43.680 --> 03:00:45.917
Like that's not, you know, that's not
who you are. That doesn't mean that

03:00:46.000 --> 03:00:49.597
you're wrong. And it also doesn't mean
that you have less of a moral stance. Um

03:00:49.680 --> 03:00:52.397
yeah, and so it's just like, all right,
now by the way, look, I think there's

03:00:52.480 --> 03:00:54.717
there I think there are ways to square
the circle. I think there's a way to

03:00:54.800 --> 03:00:57.677
have our cake and eat it, too. Like I
I think there'd be many ways to resolve

03:00:57.760 --> 03:01:01.597
this. Um I I think again I think the way
to do it is to look at these these these

03:01:01.680 --> 03:01:04.157
issues combined. Look at DEI combined

03:01:04.240 --> 03:01:09.037
with um high school immigration. It so
happens that DEI um is under much more

03:01:09.120 --> 03:01:13.117
scrutiny today than it has been for
probably 20 years. Affirmative action is

03:01:13.200 --> 03:01:15.597
um the Supreme Court did just rule that

03:01:15.680 --> 03:01:18.317
it is not legal um for universities to

03:01:18.400 --> 03:01:20.557
do that. They are still doing it but

03:01:20.640 --> 03:01:24.397
they should stop. Um and then there are

03:01:24.480 --> 03:01:29.037
more and more you've seen more companies
now also dishing their DEI programs.

03:01:29.120 --> 03:01:32.397
>> Um in part that's happening for a bunch
of reasons, but it's happening in part

03:01:32.480 --> 03:01:36.077
because a lot of corporate lawyers will
tell you that the Supreme Court rulings

03:01:36.160 --> 03:01:41.117
in education either already apply
to businesses or it just is a clear

03:01:41.200 --> 03:01:43.837
foreshadowing the Supreme Court
will rule on new cases that will ban

03:01:43.920 --> 03:01:46.957
businesses. And so so so there there is

03:01:47.040 --> 03:01:51.917
a moment here to be able to look at
this um on both sides. Um, let me add one

03:01:52.000 --> 03:01:54.317
more nuance to it though that
makes it even more complicated.

03:01:54.400 --> 03:01:56.317
>> Yeah. >> So, the cliche
is we're going to brain

03:01:56.400 --> 03:01:58.637
drain the world, right? You've heard that.
We're going to we're going to take

03:01:58.720 --> 03:02:00.877
all the smart people from all over
the world. We're going to bring them here.

03:02:00.960 --> 03:02:02.477
We're going to educate them and then
we're going to keep them and then

03:02:02.560 --> 03:02:04.637
they're going to raise their families
here, create businesses here, create

03:02:04.720 --> 03:02:07.757
jobs here, right? >> In the cliche,
that's a super positive thing.

03:02:07.840 --> 03:02:11.997
>> Yeah. Okay. So, what happens
to the rest of the world?

03:02:12.080 --> 03:02:14.957
>> They lose. >> Well,

03:02:15.040 --> 03:02:18.637
how funible are people?

03:02:18.720 --> 03:02:21.437
How many highly ambitious, highly

03:02:21.520 --> 03:02:23.837
conscientious, highly energetic, high

03:02:23.920 --> 03:02:28.797
achieving, high IQ super geniuses are
there in the world? And if there's a

03:02:28.880 --> 03:02:33.437
lot, that's great. But if there just
aren't that many and they all come here

03:02:33.520 --> 03:02:37.117
and they all aren't where they would
be otherwise, what happens to all those

03:02:37.200 --> 03:02:41.117
other places? So,
it's almost impossible for us here

03:02:41.200 --> 03:02:43.917
to have that conversation in part
because we become incredibly

03:02:44.000 --> 03:02:46.797
uncomfortable as a society talking about
the fact that people aren't just simply

03:02:46.880 --> 03:02:49.837
all the same. um which
is a whole thing we could talk

03:02:49.920 --> 03:02:54.477
about but um also we we are purely the
beneficiary of this effect right we are

03:02:54.560 --> 03:02:58.477
brain draining the world not the other
way around there's only four so if you

03:02:58.560 --> 03:03:01.597
look at the flow of high skill
immigration over time there's only four

03:03:01.680 --> 03:03:05.597
permanent syncs of high skill
immigration places people go it's the US

03:03:05.680 --> 03:03:08.877
Canada the UK and Australia
it's the it's >> what Australia

03:03:08.960 --> 03:03:11.757
>> it's the four it's four of the five
five eyes it's the major angloposphere

03:03:11.840 --> 03:03:15.277
countries and so for those countries
this there this seems like a no- lose

03:03:15.360 --> 03:03:19.597
proposition it's all the other countries
that basically what what we what we four

03:03:19.680 --> 03:03:22.157
countries have been doing is draining
all the smart people out. It's actually

03:03:22.240 --> 03:03:25.117
much easier for people in Europe to talk
about this I've discovered. um because

03:03:25.200 --> 03:03:28.877
the Euro zone is whatever you know 28
countries and within the Euro zone the

03:03:28.960 --> 03:03:33.197
high-killed people over time have been
migrating to originally the UK but also

03:03:33.280 --> 03:03:36.717
specifically I think it's
the Netherlands um Germany and France but

03:03:36.800 --> 03:03:40.397
specifically they've been migrating out
of the peripheral Eurosone countries and

03:03:40.480 --> 03:03:44.237
the the the one where this really hit
the fan was in Greece right so you know

03:03:44.320 --> 03:03:47.117
Greece falls into chaos disaster
and then you know you're running the

03:03:47.200 --> 03:03:49.117
government in Greece and you're trying
to figure out how to put an economic

03:03:49.200 --> 03:03:51.517
development plan together

03:03:51.600 --> 03:03:53.917
all of your smart young kids have left

03:03:54.000 --> 03:03:56.157
like what are you going to do, right?

03:03:56.240 --> 03:04:00.797
Um, by the way, this is a potential I
know you care a lot about Ukraine. This

03:04:00.880 --> 03:04:03.757
is a potential crisis for Ukraine. Not
[clears throat] because in part because

03:04:03.840 --> 03:04:06.797
of this, because we enthusiastically
recruit Ukrainians, of course, and so

03:04:06.880 --> 03:04:09.357
we've been drain brain draining
Ukraine for a long time,

03:04:09.440 --> 03:04:12.557
>> but also of course, you know, war does
tend to cause people to to migrate out.

03:04:12.640 --> 03:04:16.077
And so, you know, when it comes time
for Ukraine to rebuild as a peaceful

03:04:16.160 --> 03:04:20.157
country, is it going to have the talent
base even that it had 5 years ago is

03:04:20.240 --> 03:04:21.917
like a very big and important question.

03:04:22.000 --> 03:04:24.877
By the way, Russia, like we have brain
drained a lot of really smart people out

03:04:24.960 --> 03:04:27.917
of Russia. A lot of them are here,
right, over the last, you know, 30

03:04:28.000 --> 03:04:32.477
years. Um, and so there's this thing,
it's actually really funny if you think

03:04:32.560 --> 03:04:35.917
about it, like the one thing that we
know to be the height of absolute evil

03:04:36.000 --> 03:04:40.397
that the West ever did was colonization
>> and resource extraction, right? So, we

03:04:40.480 --> 03:04:43.757
know the height of absolute evil was when
the Portuguese and the English and,

03:04:43.840 --> 03:04:46.477
you know, everybody else went and had
these colonies and then went in and we,

03:04:46.560 --> 03:04:48.877
you know, took all the oil or we took
all the diamonds or we took all the

03:04:48.960 --> 03:04:51.597
whatever lithium or whatever it is, right?

03:04:51.680 --> 03:04:54.397
Well, for some reason we realize that
that's a deeply evil thing to do when

03:04:54.480 --> 03:04:58.477
it's a physical resource, when it's
a non-concious physical matter. Um, for

03:04:58.560 --> 03:05:01.357
some reason, we think it's completely
morally acceptable to do it with human

03:05:01.440 --> 03:05:05.997
capital. In fact, we think it's glorious
and beautiful and wonderful and, you

03:05:06.080 --> 03:05:09.757
know, the great flowering of of of peace
and harmony and and moral justice of our

03:05:09.840 --> 03:05:12.877
time to do it. And we don't think
for one second what we're doing to the

03:05:12.960 --> 03:05:16.797
countries that we're pulling all these
people out of. And I I this is one of

03:05:16.880 --> 03:05:19.357
these things like I don't know like
maybe we're just going to live in this

03:05:19.440 --> 03:05:22.237
delusional state forever and we'll just
keep doing it and it'll keep benefiting

03:05:22.320 --> 03:05:23.837
us and we just won't care what happens.

03:05:23.920 --> 03:05:26.557
But like I I think there may come
this is one of these this is like one of

03:05:26.640 --> 03:05:30.237
these submarines under 10 ft under
the water line. Like I think it's just a

03:05:30.320 --> 03:05:33.917
matter of time until people suddenly
realize oh my god what are we doing cuz

03:05:34.000 --> 03:05:38.637
like we need the rest of the world
to succeed too, right? Like we need these

03:05:38.720 --> 03:05:41.357
other countries to like flourish. Like
we don't want to be the only successful

03:05:41.440 --> 03:05:44.877
country in the middle of just like
complete chaos and disaster and we just

03:05:44.960 --> 03:05:48.237
extract and we extract and we extract
and we don't think twice about it.

03:05:48.320 --> 03:05:50.877
>> Well, this is so deeply profound

03:05:50.960 --> 03:05:54.077
actually. So what is the cost of winning

03:05:54.160 --> 03:05:56.237
quote unquote? If these countries are

03:05:56.320 --> 03:05:59.357
drained in terms of human capital

03:05:59.440 --> 03:06:01.597
on the on the level of geopolitics, what

03:06:01.680 --> 03:06:03.597
does that lead to? Even if we talk about

03:06:03.680 --> 03:06:06.477
wars and conflict and all of this, we

03:06:06.560 --> 03:06:09.917
actually want them to be strong in the

03:06:10.000 --> 03:06:12.237
way we understand strong, not just in

03:06:12.320 --> 03:06:15.597
every way so that cooperation and

03:06:15.680 --> 03:06:19.277
competition can build a better
world for all of humanity.

03:06:19.360 --> 03:06:22.317
>> It's interesting.
I [laughter] I've been

03:06:22.400 --> 03:06:27.357
this is one of those uh truths where
you just speak and it it resonates and I

03:06:27.440 --> 03:06:30.477
didn't even think about it. >> Yeah.
Exactly. So this is what you were

03:06:30.560 --> 03:06:32.687
sitting in during the holiday season

03:06:32.770 --> 03:06:35.277
[laughter] just boiling over. So all

03:06:35.360 --> 03:06:40.237
that said, there's still
to you some good to the H-1B.

03:06:40.320 --> 03:06:41.917
>> Okay. So then you get this other Okay.

03:06:42.000 --> 03:06:43.837
So then there's >> going
come all the way around.

03:06:43.920 --> 03:06:45.917
>> There's another nuance. So there's
another nuance. There's another nuance

03:06:46.000 --> 03:06:48.637
which is mostly in the valley
we don't use H-1Bs anymore.

03:06:48.720 --> 03:06:52.397
>> Mostly we use 01's.
>> So there's a se there's you may there's

03:06:52.480 --> 03:06:56.077
a separate class of visa and and the 01
is like this. It turns out the 01 is the

03:06:56.160 --> 03:06:59.117
super genius visa. >> Mhm.
Uh so the 01 is the basically our

03:06:59.200 --> 03:07:02.157
our founder like when we have like
a when we have somebody from anywhere in

03:07:02.240 --> 03:07:04.397
the world and they've like invented
a breakthrough in new technology and they

03:07:04.480 --> 03:07:07.597
want to come to the US to start
a company they come in through an 01 visa.

03:07:07.680 --> 03:07:11.357
Um and and that actually is like
a it's a fairly high bar. It's a high

03:07:11.440 --> 03:07:14.077
acceptance rate but it's like a pretty
high bar and they they do a lot of work

03:07:14.160 --> 03:07:17.037
and they there's like a you have to put
real work into it really really prove

03:07:17.120 --> 03:07:19.677
your case. Um mostly what's happened

03:07:19.760 --> 03:07:24.317
with the H-1B visa program um is that it
has gone to basically two categories of

03:07:24.400 --> 03:07:27.917
employers. one is the basically a small
set of big tech companies that hire in

03:07:28.000 --> 03:07:31.357
volume which is exactly the companies
that you would think um and then the

03:07:31.440 --> 03:07:34.557
other is it goes to these what they
call kind of the mills um the consulting

03:07:34.640 --> 03:07:37.357
mills right and so there's these set
of companies with names I don't want to

03:07:37.440 --> 03:07:40.717
pick on companies but you know names
like cognizant that you know hire

03:07:40.800 --> 03:07:44.877
basically have their business model uh
is primarily Indian bring in primarily

03:07:44.960 --> 03:07:48.877
Indians um in in large numbers um
and you know they often have you know

03:07:48.960 --> 03:07:52.077
offices next to company owned housing
and they'll have you know organizations

03:07:52.160 --> 03:07:54.317
that are you know they'll have you
know organizations that are literally

03:07:54.400 --> 03:07:57.277
thousands of Indians, you know,
living and working in the US and they do

03:07:57.360 --> 03:08:00.397
basically um call it mid-tier like uh IT

03:08:00.480 --> 03:08:04.717
consulting. So the you know these folks
they're making good good good wages but

03:08:04.800 --> 03:08:06.957
they're making 60 80 or $100,000 a year

03:08:07.040 --> 03:08:09.117
not the you know 300,000 that you'd make

03:08:09.200 --> 03:08:12.077
in the valley. Um and so like in

03:08:12.160 --> 03:08:16.557
practice the startups basic like little
tech as we call it or the startup world

03:08:16.640 --> 03:08:20.397
mainly doesn't use H-1Bs at this point
and and mainly can't because the system

03:08:20.480 --> 03:08:24.077
is kind of rigged in a way that we
really can't. Um, and then and then and

03:08:24.160 --> 03:08:26.557
then again you get to the sort
of underlying morality here, which is it's

03:08:26.640 --> 03:08:30.477
like, well, you know, Amazon like
Amazon's a like I love Amazon, but like

03:08:30.560 --> 03:08:33.357
they're a big powerful company. You know,
they've got, you know, more money

03:08:33.440 --> 03:08:36.637
than God. They've got resources. They've
got a long-term planning horizon. They

03:08:36.720 --> 03:08:40.397
do big, you know, profound things over,
you know, decades at a time. Um, you

03:08:40.480 --> 03:08:43.677
know, they could, you know, or any
of these other companies could launch

03:08:43.760 --> 03:08:47.357
massively effective programs to go
recruit the best and brightest from all

03:08:47.440 --> 03:08:50.557
throughout the the country. And, you know,
you'll notice they don't do that.

03:08:50.640 --> 03:08:55.357
you know, they bring in, you know,
10,000 20,000 H1Bs a year. Um, and so

03:08:55.440 --> 03:08:58.717
you've got a question there. Um,
and then these mills, like there's lots of

03:08:58.800 --> 03:09:01.437
questions around them and whether they
should, you know, whether that's even a

03:09:01.520 --> 03:09:03.997
ethical way, you know, I don't want
to say they're unethical, but there's

03:09:04.080 --> 03:09:08.877
questions around like exactly what what
the trade-offs are there. Um, and so,

03:09:08.960 --> 03:09:11.677
you know, this this Yeah. And this is
like a Pandora's box that really, you

03:09:11.760 --> 03:09:13.357
know, nobody really wanted to be opened.

03:09:13.440 --> 03:09:17.037
um you know to to to play devil's
advocate on all this in terms of like

03:09:17.120 --> 03:09:19.837
national immigration issues you know
none of this is like a top- end issue

03:09:19.920 --> 03:09:23.037
just cuz the numbers are small um right
and so you know I don't think you know

03:09:23.120 --> 03:09:25.597
the administration has said like this is
not like a priority of theirs for right

03:09:25.680 --> 03:09:28.397
now um but I guess what I would say is

03:09:28.480 --> 03:09:32.957
like there is actually a lot
of complexity and nuance here um I have a

03:09:33.040 --> 03:09:35.757
lot of f like I said I have a lot
of friends and colleagues who are you know

03:09:35.840 --> 03:09:40.397
came over on H1Bs or green cards many
are now citizens and you know every

03:09:40.480 --> 03:09:42.797
single one one of them was not every
single one a lot of them were enthusiast

03:09:42.880 --> 03:09:46.317
astic to, you know, defend the honor of
immigrants throughout this whole period.

03:09:46.400 --> 03:09:48.477
And they said to me, it's like, well,
Mark, how can we, you know, how can we,

03:09:48.560 --> 03:09:50.957
how can we more clearly express,
you know, the importance of high school

03:09:51.040 --> 03:09:53.837
immigration to the US. And I was like,
um, I think you can do it by advocating

03:09:53.920 --> 03:09:57.917
for also developing
our native porn talent.

03:09:58.000 --> 03:10:01.197
Like, do you want to inflame the issue
or do you want to diffuse the issue,

03:10:01.280 --> 03:10:04.957
>> right? And I I think I think the answer
is to diffuse the issue. Uh, let me give

03:10:05.040 --> 03:10:08.797
you one more positive scenario,
which and then I'll

03:10:08.880 --> 03:10:12.797
also beat up on the university some more.
Um do you do you know about the

03:10:12.880 --> 03:10:15.917
National Merit Scholarship System?
Have you heard about this?

03:10:16.000 --> 03:10:17.837
>> Um not really. Can you explain?

03:10:17.920 --> 03:10:20.637
>> So there's a system that was created
during the Cold War um called the

03:10:20.720 --> 03:10:25.357
National Merit Scholars. And um it is a
basically um it was created I forget in

03:10:25.440 --> 03:10:29.037
the 1950s or 60s when it was when
people in government actually wanted to

03:10:29.120 --> 03:10:32.397
identify the best and the brightest
>> as heretical an idea as that sounds

03:10:32.480 --> 03:10:35.117
today. Um and so it's basically a

03:10:35.200 --> 03:10:38.397
national talent search for basically IQ.

03:10:38.480 --> 03:10:40.157
um it it goal is to identify basically

03:10:40.240 --> 03:10:45.517
the top 0.5% of the IQ um uh in the
country by the way completely regardless

03:10:45.600 --> 03:10:48.717
of other characteristics. So there's no
race, gender or any other aspect to it.

03:10:48.800 --> 03:10:52.397
It's just going for straight intelligence.
Um it uses the first the

03:10:52.480 --> 03:10:55.357
PAT um which is the preparatory SAT that

03:10:55.440 --> 03:10:59.917
you take um and then the SAT. Uh so
it uses those scores that that is the

03:11:00.000 --> 03:11:01.997
scoring. It's a straight PAT SAT scoring

03:11:02.080 --> 03:11:04.557
system. Um so they use the SAT as a

03:11:04.640 --> 03:11:08.557
proxy for IQ which it is. Um

03:11:08.640 --> 03:11:11.997
uh they run this every year. They
identify they they it's like a they get

03:11:12.080 --> 03:11:15.517
down to like 1% of the population of the
kids of 18-year-olds in any given year

03:11:15.600 --> 03:11:18.797
who scored highest on the PAT and then
they get down to they further qualify

03:11:18.880 --> 03:11:23.117
down to the 0.5% that also replicate
on the SAT. Um and then it's like the

03:11:23.200 --> 03:11:26.797
scholarship amount is like $2,500,
right? So it's like it was a lot of

03:11:26.880 --> 03:11:28.797
money 50 years ago, not as much today.

03:11:28.880 --> 03:11:32.477
But it's a national system being run
literally to find the best and the

03:11:32.560 --> 03:11:34.957
brightest. Mhm. >> How many
of our great and powerful

03:11:35.040 --> 03:11:39.197
universities use this as a scouting
system? Like our universities all have

03:11:39.280 --> 03:11:43.437
sports teams. They all have national
scouting uh they have full-time scouts

03:11:43.520 --> 03:11:45.837
who go out and they go to every high
school and they try to find all the

03:11:45.920 --> 03:11:49.997
great basketball players and bring them
into the NCAA into all these leagues. Um

03:11:50.080 --> 03:11:52.957
how many of our great and powerful
and enlightened universities use the

03:11:53.040 --> 03:11:56.637
National Merit System to go do a talent
uh search for the smartest kids and just

03:11:56.720 --> 03:11:59.437
bring them in? >> Let me guess. Very few.

03:11:59.520 --> 03:12:03.997
>> Zero. >> Zero. As you say it,
that's brilliant. There

03:12:04.080 --> 03:12:07.597
should be that same level
of scouting for talent internally.

03:12:07.680 --> 03:12:09.517
>> Go get the smartest ones.
I give you one

03:12:09.600 --> 03:12:12.957
more kicker on this topic if you're not
if I haven't beaten it to death. Um, you

03:12:13.040 --> 03:12:15.277
know, the SAT has changed.

03:12:15.360 --> 03:12:17.757
>> Um, so the SAT used to be a highly

03:12:17.840 --> 03:12:21.437
accurate proxy for IQ. Um, that caused a

03:12:21.520 --> 03:12:25.077
bunch of problems. People really
don't like the whole idea of IQ. Um,

03:12:25.160 --> 03:12:28.637
[clears throat] and so the SAT has been
actively managed over the last 50 years

03:12:28.720 --> 03:12:32.237
by the College Board that runs it. And it
has been essentially like everything

03:12:32.320 --> 03:12:34.957
else, it's been dumbed down. Um, and so

03:12:35.040 --> 03:12:39.597
the the in in in two ways. Um, number
one, it's been dumbed down where uh an

03:12:39.680 --> 03:12:44.637
800 from 40 years ago does not mean what
an 800 means today. Um, and 800 40 years

03:12:44.720 --> 03:12:48.717
ago, it was almost impossible to get
an 800. Uh, today there's today there's so

03:12:48.800 --> 03:12:52.077
many 800s that you could stock the entire
Ivy League with 800s, right? Um,

03:12:52.160 --> 03:12:56.317
and so so so so it's been deliberately
dumbed down. Um, and then two is they

03:12:56.400 --> 03:12:59.037
have they have tried to pull out a lot
of what's called the g- loing. And so

03:12:59.120 --> 03:13:02.957
they they've tried to detach it from
being an IQ proxy because IQ is such an

03:13:03.040 --> 03:13:06.157
inflammatory concept and and the
consequence of that is and this is sort

03:13:06.240 --> 03:13:09.357
of perverse.
They've made it more coachable,

03:13:09.440 --> 03:13:13.037
right? So the IT the SAT 40 years ago
coaching didn't really work. And more

03:13:13.120 --> 03:13:14.317
recently it has really started to work.

03:13:14.400 --> 03:13:17.357
And one of the things you see is that
the Asian spike, you see this like giant

03:13:17.440 --> 03:13:20.397
leap upward in Asian performance over
the last decade. And I I think looking

03:13:20.480 --> 03:13:23.437
at the data, I think a lot of that is
because it's more coachable now and the

03:13:23.520 --> 03:13:27.757
and the Asians do the most coaching.
Um so there's a bunch of issues with this.

03:13:27.840 --> 03:13:30.557
And so the coaching thing is really
difficult because the coaching thing is

03:13:30.640 --> 03:13:34.077
a subsidy then to the kids whose
parents can afford coaching,

03:13:34.160 --> 03:13:36.397
>> right? And I don't know about you,
but where I grew up, there was no SAT

03:13:36.480 --> 03:13:39.837
coaching. So there's like an issue there.
I didn't even know what the SAT

03:13:39.920 --> 03:13:42.477
was until the day I took it. Much less
that there was coaching, much less that

03:13:42.560 --> 03:13:46.237
it could work. So much less we could
afford it. So So number one, there's

03:13:46.320 --> 03:13:48.717
issues there. But the other issue there
is think about what's happened by the

03:13:48.800 --> 03:13:52.157
dumbing down. 800 no longer captures all

03:13:52.240 --> 03:13:55.197
the smart 800 is too crude of a test.

03:13:55.280 --> 03:13:57.037
It's like the AI benchmarking problem.

03:13:57.120 --> 03:14:00.397
It's it's the same problem we have in AI
benchmarking right now. 800 is too low

03:14:00.480 --> 03:14:04.477
of a threshold. There are
too many kids scoring 800

03:14:04.560 --> 03:14:07.677
because what you want is you want
whatever if it's going to be 100,000

03:14:07.760 --> 03:14:09.997
kids. I don't know what it is, but it's
going to be 50,000 kids a year scoring

03:14:10.080 --> 03:14:14.317
800. You also then want kids to be able
to score 900 and 1,000 and 1100 and 1200

03:14:14.400 --> 03:14:17.517
and you want to ultimately get to >>
you know this you'd like to ident

03:14:17.600 --> 03:14:21.117
ultimately identify the top 100 kids
and make sure that you get them in MIT

03:14:21.200 --> 03:14:24.877
>> and the resolution of the test has
been reduced so that it actually is not

03:14:24.960 --> 03:14:28.397
useful for doing that. And again, it's
I I would say this is like part of the

03:14:28.480 --> 03:14:31.037
generalized corruption that's taken
place throughout this entire system

03:14:31.120 --> 03:14:34.317
where we we we have been heading
in the reverse direction from wanting to

03:14:34.400 --> 03:14:37.357
actually go get the best and brightest
and actually put them in the places um

03:14:37.440 --> 03:14:40.157
where they should be. And then just
the final comment would be the great thing

03:14:40.240 --> 03:14:43.437
about standardized testing and the
national merit system is it's like I

03:14:43.520 --> 03:14:46.637
said, it's completely race blind. It's
gender blind. It's blind on every other

03:14:46.720 --> 03:14:49.997
characteristic. it's only done on test
scores, you know, and you can make an

03:14:50.080 --> 03:14:53.997
argument about whether that's good or bad,
but it is, you know, for sure, um,

03:14:54.080 --> 03:14:57.437
you know, it's the closest thing that we
had to get to merit. Um, it was the

03:14:57.520 --> 03:15:00.157
thing that they did when they thought
they needed merit to win the Cold War.

03:15:00.240 --> 03:15:03.757
And of course, we could we could choose
to do that anytime we want. And, and I

03:15:03.840 --> 03:15:07.277
just say I find it like incredibly
striking, um, and an enormous moral

03:15:07.360 --> 03:15:09.837
indictment of the current system
that there are no universities to do this

03:15:09.920 --> 03:15:11.997
today. >> So,
back to the immigration thing just

03:15:12.080 --> 03:15:14.877
real quick. It's like, okay, we aren't
even trying to go get the smart kids out

03:15:14.960 --> 03:15:17.997
of the center of South and and even if
they think that they can get into these

03:15:18.080 --> 03:15:20.877
places, they get turned down. And the
same thing for the smart Asians and the

03:15:20.960 --> 03:15:23.117
same thing for the smart Jews and the
same thing for the smart black people.

03:15:23.200 --> 03:15:27.917
And like it it just like it's
just like I don't know how

03:15:28.000 --> 03:15:29.277
like I I don't know how that's moral.

03:15:29.360 --> 03:15:31.917
Like I I don't get it at all. As you

03:15:32.000 --> 03:15:34.477
said about the 800, so I took the SAT

03:15:34.560 --> 03:15:36.797
and ACT many times and there I've always

03:15:36.880 --> 03:15:40.077
gotten perfect at math 800. It's just

03:15:40.160 --> 03:15:43.277
and I'm not that I'm not special. Like

03:15:43.360 --> 03:15:47.837
it it it doesn't identify genius. I

03:15:47.920 --> 03:15:50.637
think you want to search for genius and

03:15:50.720 --> 03:15:53.597
you want to create measures that find

03:15:53.680 --> 03:15:55.757
genius of all different kinds. Speaking

03:15:55.840 --> 03:16:00.077
of diversity, and I guess we should

03:16:00.160 --> 03:16:01.997
reiterate and say over and over and

03:16:02.080 --> 03:16:06.237
over, uh, defend immigrants, yes, but

03:16:06.320 --> 03:16:09.597
say we should hire
more and more nativeorn.

03:16:09.680 --> 03:16:12.077
>> Well, you asked me in the beginning
like what what would what's the most

03:16:12.160 --> 03:16:14.637
optimistic forecast, right, that we
could have? And the most optimistic

03:16:14.720 --> 03:16:17.607
forecast would be, my god,
what if we did both?

03:16:17.690 --> 03:16:20.957
[laughter] Like,

03:16:21.040 --> 03:16:25.757
>> so that's the reasonable, the rational,
the smart thing to say here. In fact, we

03:16:25.840 --> 03:16:28.637
don't have to have a war. >> Well,
it would diffuse, it would diffuse

03:16:28.720 --> 03:16:31.277
the entire issue. >> Yeah.
>> If everybody in the center in the south

03:16:31.360 --> 03:16:33.677
of the country and every Jewish family,
Asian family, black family knew they

03:16:33.760 --> 03:16:37.277
were getting a fair shake.
Like, it would diffuse the issue.

03:16:37.360 --> 03:16:38.557
Like, how about diffusing the issue?

03:16:38.640 --> 03:16:41.757
Like, what a crazy radical. Sorry,
I don't mean to really get out over my

03:16:41.840 --> 03:16:43.437
skis here, but

03:16:43.520 --> 03:16:46.237
>> I think your profile on X states it's

03:16:46.320 --> 03:16:49.837
time to build. It feels like 25 2025 is

03:16:49.920 --> 03:16:51.997
a good year to build.

03:16:52.080 --> 03:16:56.637
So uh I wanted to ask your advice

03:16:56.720 --> 03:16:59.117
and maybe

03:16:59.200 --> 03:17:01.117
uh for advice for anybody who's trying

03:17:01.200 --> 03:17:03.677
to build so who's trying to build

03:17:03.760 --> 03:17:06.157
something useful in the world

03:17:06.240 --> 03:17:08.957
maybe launch a startup or maybe just

03:17:09.040 --> 03:17:12.797
launch apps services whatever ship

03:17:12.880 --> 03:17:16.637
software products. So maybe by way of

03:17:16.720 --> 03:17:21.037
advice, how do you
actually get to shipping?

03:17:21.120 --> 03:17:24.157
>> So I mean a big part of the answer I
think is we're in the middle of a legit

03:17:24.240 --> 03:17:26.717
revolution. And I know you've been
talking about this on your show, but

03:17:26.800 --> 03:17:29.437
like AI coding, I mean this is the

03:17:29.520 --> 03:17:33.757
biggest earthquake to hit software
in certainly my life. um maybe since the

03:17:33.840 --> 03:17:37.037
invention of software um and I'm sure
you know we're involved in various of

03:17:37.120 --> 03:17:40.157
these companies but you know these
these tools um you know from a variety of

03:17:40.240 --> 03:17:45.357
companies are um like absolutely
revolutionary and and and they're

03:17:45.440 --> 03:17:48.317
getting better by leaps and bounds right
every day and and you you you know all

03:17:48.400 --> 03:17:51.597
this but like the thing with coding
like there there's like open questions of

03:17:51.680 --> 03:17:54.717
whether AI can get better at like I
don't know understanding philosophy or

03:17:54.800 --> 03:17:57.917
whatever creative writing or whatever
but like for sure we can make it much

03:17:58.000 --> 03:17:59.757
better at coding >> right
[clears throat] because you can

03:17:59.840 --> 03:18:03.197
validate the results of coding um And so,
you know, there's all these methods

03:18:03.280 --> 03:18:05.837
of, you know, synthetic data and
selftraining and reinforcement learning

03:18:05.920 --> 03:18:09.277
that for sure you can do with with coding.
And so, everybody I know who

03:18:09.360 --> 03:18:13.197
works in the field says AI coding is going
to get to be phenomenally good and

03:18:13.280 --> 03:18:16.397
it's it's already great and you you can
I mean, anybody wants to see this just

03:18:16.480 --> 03:18:19.117
go on YouTube and look at AI coding
demos. You know, little little kids

03:18:19.200 --> 03:18:22.477
making apps in 10 minutes working
with an AI coding system. And so, I think

03:18:22.560 --> 03:18:24.717
it's the golden age. I mean, I think
this is an area where it's clearly the

03:18:24.800 --> 03:18:28.237
golden age. The tool set is extraordinary.
You know, in in a day as

03:18:28.320 --> 03:18:31.997
as a coder, for sure, in a day you can
retrain yourself. um uh you know, start

03:18:32.080 --> 03:18:34.877
using these things, get a huge boost
in productivity. As a non-coder, you can

03:18:34.960 --> 03:18:36.877
learn much more quickly
than you could before.

03:18:36.960 --> 03:18:41.197
>> That's that's actually a tricky one
in terms of learning as a non-coder to

03:18:41.280 --> 03:18:42.877
build stuff. It's still I feel like you

03:18:42.960 --> 03:18:45.997
still need to learn how to code. It it

03:18:46.080 --> 03:18:48.317
becomes a superpower. It helps you be

03:18:48.400 --> 03:18:49.997
much more productive. Like you could

03:18:50.080 --> 03:18:53.037
legitimately be a oneperson

03:18:53.120 --> 03:18:55.837
uh company and get quite far.

03:18:55.920 --> 03:18:59.357
>> I agree with that.
Up to a point. So the

03:18:59.440 --> 03:19:02.877
um I think for sure for quite a long
time the people who are good at coding

03:19:02.960 --> 03:19:05.757
are going to be the best at actually
having AIs code things um because

03:19:05.840 --> 03:19:08.077
they're going to understand what I mean
very basic they're going to understand

03:19:08.160 --> 03:19:10.877
what's happening right and they're going
to be be able to evaluate the work and

03:19:10.960 --> 03:19:14.237
they're going to be able to you know
literally like manage AIS better um like

03:19:14.320 --> 03:19:15.997
even if they're not literally
handwriting the code they're just going

03:19:16.080 --> 03:19:19.037
to have a much better sense of what's
going on so I definitely think like 100%

03:19:19.120 --> 03:19:21.917
my nine-year-old is like doing all kinds
of coding classes and he'll keep doing

03:19:22.000 --> 03:19:24.717
that for certainly through 18 we'll see

03:19:24.800 --> 03:19:29.837
after that um and so like for sure
that's the case. Um but but look having

03:19:29.920 --> 03:19:34.557
said that one of the things you can do
with an AI is say teach me how to code

03:19:34.640 --> 03:19:39.437
right. Um, and so and you know there's
there's a whole bunch of um you know I

03:19:39.520 --> 03:19:41.597
I'll name names you know Khan Academy
like there's a whole bunch of a whole

03:19:41.680 --> 03:19:44.237
bunch of work that they're doing at Khan
Academy for free and then you know we

03:19:44.320 --> 03:19:47.837
have this company Replet uh which is was
originally specifically built for kids

03:19:47.920 --> 03:19:51.437
for coding um that is has AI built
in that's just absolutely extraordinary

03:19:51.520 --> 03:19:54.797
now. Um and then you know there's
a variety of other of other systems like

03:19:54.880 --> 03:19:58.557
this um and uh yeah that I mean the AI
is going to be able to teach you to

03:19:58.640 --> 03:20:02.557
code. The AI by the way is as you know
spectacularly good at explaining code.

03:20:02.640 --> 03:20:05.517
>> Mhm. >> Right. Um,
and so you know the tools

03:20:05.600 --> 03:20:09.197
have these features now where you can
talk to the codebase and so you can like

03:20:09.280 --> 03:20:13.037
literally like ask the codebase
questions about itself. Um, and you can

03:20:13.120 --> 03:20:16.397
also just do the simple form which is you
can copy and paste code into chatgpt

03:20:16.480 --> 03:20:19.837
and just ask it to explain it what's
going on, rewrite it, improve it, make

03:20:19.920 --> 03:20:23.357
recommendations and so there there's
yeah there's dozens of ways to to to do

03:20:23.440 --> 03:20:26.717
this. By the way, you can also I mean
even more broadly than code like you

03:20:26.800 --> 03:20:30.157
okay you want to make a video game okay
now you can do AI art generation sound

03:20:30.240 --> 03:20:34.797
generation dialogue generation voice
generation right and so all of a sudden

03:20:34.880 --> 03:20:39.677
like you don't need designers you know
you don't need um you know voice actors

03:20:39.760 --> 03:20:42.877
you know so yeah so there's just like
unlimited and and then you know big is

03:20:42.960 --> 03:20:45.437
you know a big part of coding
is so-called glue you know it's it's

03:20:45.520 --> 03:20:49.037
interfacing into other systems so it's
interfacing into you know stripe to take

03:20:49.120 --> 03:20:53.677
payments or something like that and you
know AI's fantastic at writing glue

03:20:53.760 --> 03:20:56.557
Um, so you know, really, really good at
making sure that you can plug everything

03:20:56.640 --> 03:21:00.557
together, really good at helping you
figure out how to deploy. Um, you know,

03:21:00.640 --> 03:21:04.797
it'll even write a business plan for you.
Um, so it it's just this it's it's

03:21:04.880 --> 03:21:07.197
like everything happening with AI right
now. It's just it's like this latent

03:21:07.280 --> 03:21:10.717
superpower and there's this incredible
spectrum of people who have really

03:21:10.800 --> 03:21:13.677
figured out massive performance
increases, productivity increases with

03:21:13.760 --> 03:21:16.877
it already. there's other people who
aren't even aware it's happening and

03:21:16.960 --> 03:21:21.597
there's some gearing to whether you're
a coder or not, but I think there are lots

03:21:21.680 --> 03:21:24.077
of non-coders that are off to the
races and I think there are lots of

03:21:24.160 --> 03:21:28.237
professional coders who are still like,
you know, the blacksmiths were not

03:21:28.320 --> 03:21:30.717
necessarily in favor of, you know, the

03:21:30.800 --> 03:21:35.437
car business. Um, so, uh, there's the old
William Gibson quote, the future is

03:21:35.520 --> 03:21:39.197
here, it's just not evenly distributed
yet. And this is maybe the most potent

03:21:39.280 --> 03:21:41.757
version of that that I've ever seen.

03:21:41.840 --> 03:21:43.597
Yeah, there's uh you know the old meme

03:21:43.680 --> 03:21:46.957
with the uh with the bell curve that the

03:21:47.040 --> 03:21:49.917
the people on both extremes say AI

03:21:50.000 --> 03:21:54.397
coding is the future. Um it's very
common with the programmers to say you

03:21:54.480 --> 03:21:57.997
know if you're any good of a programmer
you're not going to be using it. That's

03:21:58.080 --> 03:22:02.717
just not true. Now I consider myself
reasonably good programmer and I my

03:22:02.800 --> 03:22:06.957
productivity has been just skyrocketed
and the joy of programming skyro

03:22:07.040 --> 03:22:09.517
rocketed is every aspect of programming

03:22:09.600 --> 03:22:14.317
is more efficient uh more
productive more fun all that

03:22:14.400 --> 03:22:18.237
kind of stuff. I would also say code
is you know code has code has of anything

03:22:18.320 --> 03:22:22.557
in like industrial society code has has
the highest elasticity which is to say

03:22:22.640 --> 03:22:25.917
the easier it is to make it the more
get get the more of it gets made like I

03:22:26.000 --> 03:22:29.597
think effectively there's unlimited
demand for code like in other words like

03:22:29.680 --> 03:22:33.277
there's always some other idea for a thing
that you can do a feature that you

03:22:33.360 --> 03:22:38.957
can add or a thing that you can optimize
um and so and so like overwhelmingly you

03:22:39.040 --> 03:22:41.357
know the amount of code that exists
in the world is a fraction of even the

03:22:41.440 --> 03:22:45.037
ideas we have today and then we come up
with new ideas all the time um and So I

03:22:45.120 --> 03:22:49.037
I think that like you know
I was I was in the late ' 80s

03:22:49.120 --> 03:22:51.917
early 90s when sort of automated coding
systems started to come out expert

03:22:52.000 --> 03:22:54.797
systems a big deal in those days and
there were all these there was a famous

03:22:54.880 --> 03:22:57.597
book called the decline and fall
of the American programmer you know that

03:22:57.680 --> 03:22:59.837
predicted that these new coding systems
were going to mean we wouldn't have

03:22:59.920 --> 03:23:02.397
programmers in the future and of course
the number of programming jobs exploded

03:23:02.480 --> 03:23:06.317
by like a factor of 100 like my guess
will be we'll have more my guess is

03:23:06.400 --> 03:23:09.437
we'll have more coding jobs probably by
like an order of magnitude 10 years from

03:23:09.520 --> 03:23:13.197
now >> that will be different they'll
be different jobs they'll they'll involve

03:23:13.280 --> 03:23:17.117
orchestrating AI Um but um
we there will be we will be

03:23:17.200 --> 03:23:20.477
creating so much more software that that
the whole industry will just explode in

03:23:20.560 --> 03:23:23.997
size. >> Are you seeing
the size of companies

03:23:24.080 --> 03:23:28.397
decrease in terms of startups?
What's the landscapes of little tech?

03:23:28.480 --> 03:23:32.477
>> All we're seeing right now
is the AI hiring boom of all time.

03:23:32.560 --> 03:23:35.517
>> Oh for the big tech >> people
and and little tech. Everybody's

03:23:35.600 --> 03:23:39.757
trying to hire as many engineers as they
can to build AI systems. It's just it's

03:23:39.840 --> 03:23:43.677
100%. Uh I mean there there's a handful
of company you know there's a little bit

03:23:43.760 --> 03:23:46.477
there's there's customer service you
know there we have some companies and

03:23:46.560 --> 03:23:50.797
others I think it's CLA that's
publicizing a lot of this um in Europe

03:23:50.880 --> 03:23:55.037
um uh where um you know you know there
are jobs that can be optimized um and

03:23:55.120 --> 03:23:59.757
jobs that can be automated but um like
for engineering jobs like it's just an

03:23:59.840 --> 03:24:03.597
explosion of hiring um at least
so far there's no trace of

03:24:03.680 --> 03:24:07.357
any sort of diminishing effect um now
having said that I am looking forward to

03:24:07.440 --> 03:24:11.597
the day I I am waiting for the first
company to walk and saying yes um like

03:24:11.680 --> 03:24:14.877
the more radical form of it. So,
so basically the companies that we see are

03:24:14.960 --> 03:24:19.277
basically one of two kinds.
We we see the companies that are basically

03:24:19.360 --> 03:24:22.957
sometimes use weak form strong form.
So the the weak form companies I sometimes

03:24:23.040 --> 03:24:27.037
use the term it's the called the sixth
bullet point. U AI is the sixth bullet

03:24:27.120 --> 03:24:28.957
point of whatever they're doing.

03:24:29.040 --> 03:24:30.637
>> Sure. >> Right.
In this on the slide, right? So

03:24:30.720 --> 03:24:33.117
they've got the you know whatever dot
dot dot dot and then AI is the sixth

03:24:33.200 --> 03:24:35.037
thing. And the reason AI is the sixth
thing is because they had already

03:24:35.120 --> 03:24:37.837
previously written the slide before the
AI revolution started. And so they just

03:24:37.920 --> 03:24:40.957
added the six bullet point in the slide,
>> which is how you're getting all these

03:24:41.040 --> 03:24:44.077
products that have like the AI button up
in the corner, right? The little sparkly

03:24:44.160 --> 03:24:46.557
button. >> Y, >> right? Um,
and all of a sudden, Gmail is

03:24:46.640 --> 03:24:49.757
offering to summarize your email,
which I'm like, I don't need that. Like, I

03:24:49.840 --> 03:24:53.677
need I need you to answer my email,
not summarize it. Like, what the hell?

03:24:53.760 --> 03:24:55.357
>> Okay, so we see those and that's fine.

03:24:55.440 --> 03:24:59.357
That's like I don't know, putting sugar
on the cake or something. Um, but then

03:24:59.440 --> 03:25:02.637
we see the strong form, which is the
companies that are building from scratch

03:25:02.720 --> 03:25:05.357
for AI, right? Right. And they're
they're building it. I actually just met

03:25:05.440 --> 03:25:09.037
with a company that is building literally
an AI email system as an example. So just

03:25:09.120 --> 03:25:12.557
>> Oh, nice. I I can't wait. >> Yeah.
They're going to completely Right.

03:25:12.640 --> 03:25:15.837
So the very obvious idea, very smart team.
Um you know, it's going to be

03:25:15.920 --> 03:25:19.597
great, you know, and and then you know,
notion just uh you know, another not one

03:25:19.680 --> 03:25:22.477
of our companies, but just came out with
a product. So So now companies are going

03:25:22.560 --> 03:25:24.477
to basically come through, sweep
through, and they're going to do

03:25:24.560 --> 03:25:28.637
basically AI first versions of basically
everything. And those are like companies

03:25:28.720 --> 03:25:31.757
built, you know, AI is the first bullet
point. It's the strong form of the

03:25:31.840 --> 03:25:33.997
argument. >> Yeah.
Cursor is an example of that. They

03:25:34.080 --> 03:25:37.997
basically said, "Okay, we're going to re
rebuild the thing with AI as the first

03:25:38.080 --> 03:25:39.837
citizen. >> What if we
knew from scratch that we

03:25:39.920 --> 03:25:42.637
could build on this?" And and and again,
this is like this is part of the full

03:25:42.720 --> 03:25:45.197
employment act for startups and VCs is

03:25:45.280 --> 03:25:49.837
it just like if if a if a technology
transformation is sufficiently powerful,

03:25:49.920 --> 03:25:52.477
then you actually need to start
the product development process over from

03:25:52.560 --> 03:25:55.197
scratch because you need to
reconceptualize the product and and then

03:25:55.280 --> 03:25:58.557
usually what that means is you need
a new company because most incumbents just

03:25:58.640 --> 03:26:02.157
just won't do that. Um, and so yeah,
so that that's underway across many

03:26:02.240 --> 03:26:06.077
categories. Um, what I'm waiting for is
the company where it's like, no, our org

03:26:06.160 --> 03:26:09.917
chart is redesigned as a result of AI,
right? So I'm looking I'm waiting for

03:26:10.000 --> 03:26:13.117
the company where it's like, no,
we're going to have like, you know,

03:26:13.200 --> 03:26:16.317
>> and and the cliche, here's a thought
experiment, right? The cliche would be

03:26:16.400 --> 03:26:18.637
we're going to have like the human
executive team and then we're going to

03:26:18.720 --> 03:26:21.037
have the AIs be the workers, right?
So we'll have a VP of engineering

03:26:21.120 --> 03:26:23.677
supervising 100 instances of of coding

03:26:23.760 --> 03:26:28.397
of coding agents, right? >> Okay.
Maybe, right? by the way or maybe

03:26:28.480 --> 03:26:31.517
um maybe the VP
of engineering should be the AI

03:26:31.600 --> 03:26:35.437
>> maybe supervising human coders who are
supervising AIS right because one of the

03:26:35.520 --> 03:26:38.477
things that AI should be
pretty good at is managing

03:26:38.560 --> 03:26:40.157
>> because it's like
not you know it's like

03:26:40.240 --> 03:26:43.517
a process driven it's the kind of thing
that AI is actually pretty good at right

03:26:43.600 --> 03:26:48.797
performance evaluation coaching um and so
should it be an AI executive team um

03:26:48.880 --> 03:26:53.357
and then you know and then of course
the ultimate question which is AI CEO

03:26:53.440 --> 03:26:56.397
right um and then you know and then
there's and then maybe the most

03:26:56.480 --> 03:26:59.837
futuristic version of it would be an
actual AI agent that actually goes fully

03:26:59.920 --> 03:27:03.277
autonomous. Yeah. What if you really set
one of these things loose and let it let

03:27:03.360 --> 03:27:07.517
it basically build itself a business? Um
and and so I will say like we're not yet

03:27:07.600 --> 03:27:11.517
seeing those and I think there's
a little bit of the systems aren't quite

03:27:11.600 --> 03:27:15.517
ready for that yet. Um, and then I think
it's a little bit of you really do need

03:27:15.600 --> 03:27:19.357
at that point like a founder who's
really willing to break all the rules

03:27:19.440 --> 03:27:22.637
um, and really willing to take the swing
and and and those people exist and so

03:27:22.720 --> 03:27:25.837
I'm sure we'll see that.
>> And some of it is as as you know with

03:27:25.920 --> 03:27:30.237
all the startups this is the execution
the the idea that you have a AI first

03:27:30.320 --> 03:27:32.637
email client. This seems like an obvious

03:27:32.720 --> 03:27:35.677
idea but actually creating one executing

03:27:35.760 --> 03:27:40.077
and then taking on Gmail is really
is really difficult. I mean, Gmail, it's

03:27:40.160 --> 03:27:45.437
it's it's fascinating to see Google
can't do it because because why? Because

03:27:45.520 --> 03:27:49.197
of momentum because it's hard
to re-engineer the entirety of the system.

03:27:49.280 --> 03:27:53.597
Feels like Google's perfectly positioned
to to do it. Same with like you have

03:27:53.680 --> 03:27:57.357
Perplexity, uh, which I love.
Like Google could

03:27:57.440 --> 03:27:59.517
technically take on Perplexity and do it

03:27:59.600 --> 03:28:02.317
much better, but they haven't not yet.

03:28:02.400 --> 03:28:07.197
So, it's fascinating why that is for
large companies. I mean that that is an

03:28:07.280 --> 03:28:09.997
advantage for little tech.
They can be agile.

03:28:10.080 --> 03:28:11.837
>> Yeah, that's right.
>> They can move fast.

03:28:11.920 --> 03:28:14.397
>> Yeah. Little companies can break
glass in a way big companies can't.

03:28:14.480 --> 03:28:16.237
>> Right. >> This is sort
of the big breakthrough

03:28:16.320 --> 03:28:18.957
that Clay Christensen had in the
innovators dilemma, which is sometimes

03:28:19.040 --> 03:28:22.077
when big companies don't do things,
it's because they're screwing up. And that

03:28:22.160 --> 03:28:24.797
certainly happens. >> But a lot
of times they don't do things

03:28:24.880 --> 03:28:26.157
because it would break too much glass.

03:28:26.240 --> 03:28:29.277
It would specifically it would it would
it would interfere with their existing

03:28:29.360 --> 03:28:32.237
customers um and their existing
businesses and they just simply won't do

03:28:32.320 --> 03:28:35.277
that. And by the way,
responsibly they shouldn't do that.

03:28:35.360 --> 03:28:38.957
Um, right. Um, and so they just get this

03:28:39.040 --> 03:28:42.317
Clay Christian's big thing is they
they often don't adapt because they are

03:28:42.400 --> 03:28:46.077
wellrun, not because they're poorly run,
but they're optimizing machines. They're

03:28:46.160 --> 03:28:49.597
they're they're optimizing against the
existing business. And and and and as as

03:28:49.680 --> 03:28:52.637
you kind of just said, this is like
a permanent state of affairs for large

03:28:52.720 --> 03:28:55.997
organizations. Like every once
in a while, one breaks the pattern and

03:28:56.080 --> 03:28:58.957
actually does it, but for the most part,
like this is a very predictable form of

03:28:59.040 --> 03:29:02.877
human behavior. And this fundamentally
is why startups exist.

03:29:02.960 --> 03:29:05.277
It feels like 2025 is when the race for

03:29:05.360 --> 03:29:07.757
dominance in AI will uh see some

03:29:07.840 --> 03:29:10.557
winners. Like it's a big year. So, who

03:29:10.640 --> 03:29:15.277
do you think wins the race? Open AI,
Meta, Google, XAI. Who do you think wins

03:29:15.360 --> 03:29:18.237
the AI race? >> I would say I'm I'm not
going to predict. I'm going to say there's

03:29:18.320 --> 03:29:21.357
questions all over the place. Um,
and then we have we have this category

03:29:21.440 --> 03:29:23.757
question we call the trillion dollar
question, which is like literally

03:29:23.840 --> 03:29:27.117
depending on how it's answered, people
make or lose a trillion dollars. And I

03:29:27.200 --> 03:29:30.557
think there's like I don't know five
or six trillion dollar questions right now

03:29:30.640 --> 03:29:33.117
that are hanging out there which
is an unusually large number.

03:29:33.200 --> 03:29:34.957
>> Yeah. >> And I just you
know I'll just hit a few

03:29:35.040 --> 03:29:37.917
of them and we can talk about them.
So one is big models versus small models.

03:29:38.000 --> 03:29:42.397
Um another is open models versus closed
models. Another is whether you can use

03:29:42.480 --> 03:29:46.637
synthetic data or not. Another is chain
of thought. How far can you push that

03:29:46.720 --> 03:29:50.637
and reinforcement learning? And then
another one is political trillion dollar

03:29:50.720 --> 03:29:54.397
questions. um you know policy questions
which you know the US and the EU have

03:29:54.480 --> 03:29:58.397
both been flunking [snorts] dramatically
and the US hopefully is about to really

03:29:58.480 --> 03:30:02.557
succeed at um yeah and then there's
probably another you know half dozen big

03:30:02.640 --> 03:30:06.797
important questions after that and so
these are all just like say this is an

03:30:06.880 --> 03:30:10.717
industry that's in flux in a way that I
even more dramatic I think than the ones

03:30:10.800 --> 03:30:14.477
I've seen before um and look the most
example most obvious example of the flux

03:30:14.560 --> 03:30:17.277
is sitting here three sitting here
in the summer you know sitting here less

03:30:17.360 --> 03:30:20.717
than three years ago sitting here
in December of 22 we would have said that

03:30:20.800 --> 03:30:23.037
OpenAI is just running
away with everything.

03:30:23.120 --> 03:30:26.477
>> Um, and sitting here today, it's like,
you know, there's at least six, you

03:30:26.560 --> 03:30:31.437
know, worldass god model companies
and teams that are, by the way, generating

03:30:31.520 --> 03:30:34.317
remarkably similar results. That's
actually been one of the most shocking

03:30:34.400 --> 03:30:37.277
things to me is like it turns out
that once you know that it's possible to

03:30:37.360 --> 03:30:41.677
build one incredibly smart touring test
passing large language model, which was

03:30:41.760 --> 03:30:45.357
a complete shock and surprise uh
to the world, um, it turns out within, you

03:30:45.440 --> 03:30:49.197
know, a year you can have five more.
Um there's also a money component thing to

03:30:49.280 --> 03:30:53.037
it which is um to get the money to scale
one of these things into the billions of

03:30:53.120 --> 03:30:55.757
dollars. There's basically right now
only two sources of money that will do

03:30:55.840 --> 03:30:59.437
that for you. One is um the hyperscalers
giving you the money which you turn

03:30:59.520 --> 03:31:03.357
around and round trip back to them.
Um or you know foreign sovereigns you know

03:31:03.440 --> 03:31:06.397
other you know country sovereign
sovereign wealth funds which can be you

03:31:06.480 --> 03:31:11.437
know difficult in some cases to for
companies to access. Um so there's a

03:31:11.520 --> 03:31:13.597
there's another there's maybe another
trillion dollar question is the

03:31:13.680 --> 03:31:17.357
financing question. Here's one. Uh so
Sam Alman has been public about the fact

03:31:17.440 --> 03:31:21.197
that he wants to transition OpenAI from
being a nonprofit to being a for-profit.

03:31:21.280 --> 03:31:25.677
>> Um the way that that is legally done
is that um and there is a way to do it.

03:31:25.760 --> 03:31:29.597
There is a way in US law to do it.
Um the IRS and and other legal entities uh

03:31:29.680 --> 03:31:32.717
government entities scrutinize this
very carefully because the US takes

03:31:32.800 --> 03:31:37.117
foundation nonprofit law very seriously
because of the tax exemption. Um, and so

03:31:37.200 --> 03:31:40.397
the way that historically the way that
you do it is you start a for-profit and

03:31:40.480 --> 03:31:43.597
then you you raise money with the
for-profit to buy the assets of the

03:31:43.680 --> 03:31:47.277
nonprofit at fair market value. Um, and

03:31:47.360 --> 03:31:51.037
you know, the last financing round
at OpenAI was, you know, $150 some billion

03:31:51.120 --> 03:31:54.157
dollars. And so logically the if if the

03:31:54.240 --> 03:31:58.157
flip is going to happen, the for-profit
has to go raise $150 billion out of the

03:31:58.240 --> 03:32:00.817
chute to buy the assets. You know,

03:32:00.900 --> 03:32:05.517
[laughter] raising 150 billion is a
challenge. Um, so you know, is that even

03:32:05.600 --> 03:32:08.797
possible? If that is possible,
then OpenAI maybe is off to the races as a

03:32:08.880 --> 03:32:12.157
for-profit company. If not, you know,
you know, I don't know. And then, you

03:32:12.240 --> 03:32:15.437
know, obviously the Elon lawsuit. So,
so just because they're the market leader

03:32:15.520 --> 03:32:18.877
today, you know, there's big important
questions there. You know, Microsoft has

03:32:18.960 --> 03:32:22.477
this kind of lovehate relationship with
them. Where does that go? Apple's, you

03:32:22.560 --> 03:32:25.437
know, lagging badly behind, but, you know,
they're very good at catching up.

03:32:25.520 --> 03:32:28.637
Amazon, you know, is primarily
hyperscaler, but they now have their own

03:32:28.720 --> 03:32:31.917
models. And then there's the other
questions like you laid out brilliantly

03:32:32.000 --> 03:32:36.637
briefly and brilliantly open versus
closed big versus little models

03:32:36.720 --> 03:32:38.397
synthetic data that's a huge huge

03:32:38.480 --> 03:32:41.597
question and then test compute with uh

03:32:41.680 --> 03:32:45.117
chain of thought the role of that fasc

03:32:45.200 --> 03:32:48.637
and these are I think it's fair to say
trillion dollar questions. Yeah, these

03:32:48.720 --> 03:32:51.117
are big like look, you know, it's it's
like okay, here's a trillion dollar

03:32:51.200 --> 03:32:53.677
question which is kind of embedded
in that which is just hallucinations,

03:32:53.760 --> 03:32:57.917
right? Like so if you are trying to use
these tools creatively, you're thrilled

03:32:58.000 --> 03:33:01.277
because they can draw new images and they
can make new music and they can do

03:33:01.360 --> 03:33:03.197
all this incredible stuff, right?

03:33:03.280 --> 03:33:06.317
They're creative. The flip side of that
is if you need them to be correct, they

03:33:06.400 --> 03:33:09.677
they can't be creative. And that's,
you know, the term hallucination.

03:33:09.760 --> 03:33:14.317
>> And these things do hallucinate. And
um you know, there have been, you know,

03:33:14.400 --> 03:33:17.277
court cases already where lawyers have
submitted legal briefs that contain

03:33:17.360 --> 03:33:20.877
madeup court citations, case citations
that the judge is like, "Wait a minute,

03:33:20.960 --> 03:33:23.037
this doesn't exist." And the very
next question is, "Did you write this

03:33:23.120 --> 03:33:26.797
yourself?" And the lawyer
goes, "Uh, [laughter]

03:33:26.880 --> 03:33:28.957
>> I mean, that's why
with Elon with Grock,

03:33:29.040 --> 03:33:33.837
uh, yes, looking for truth." I mean
that's a open technical question. How

03:33:33.920 --> 03:33:35.837
close can you get to truth with LLMs?

03:33:35.920 --> 03:33:37.677
>> Yeah, that's right. And and I I my my

03:33:37.760 --> 03:33:43.277
sense u this is very contentious topic
at the industry. My sense is if to the

03:33:43.360 --> 03:33:46.157
extent that there is a domain in which
there is a definitive and checkable and

03:33:46.240 --> 03:33:49.917
provable answer and you might say math
satisfies that, coding satisfies that

03:33:50.000 --> 03:33:53.197
and maybe some other fields then you
should be able to generate synthetic

03:33:53.280 --> 03:33:55.917
data. You should be able to do chain of
thought reasoning. You should be able to

03:33:56.000 --> 03:33:58.877
do reinforcement learning and you should
be able to ultimately you know eliminate

03:33:58.960 --> 03:34:02.957
hallucinations.
um for but by the way that's a trillion

03:34:03.040 --> 03:34:05.677
dollar question right there as to
whether that's true. Um but then but

03:34:05.760 --> 03:34:08.157
then there's question of like okay
is that going to work in the more general

03:34:08.240 --> 03:34:11.357
domain? Like so for example one
possibility is these things are going to

03:34:11.440 --> 03:34:15.597
get be truly superhuman at like math
and coding but at like discussing

03:34:15.680 --> 03:34:18.637
philosophy they're going to just they're
basically as smart as they're ever going

03:34:18.720 --> 03:34:22.397
to be. Um and they're going to be kind
of you know say midwit grad student

03:34:22.480 --> 03:34:25.597
level. Um and and the theory there would
just be they're already out of training

03:34:25.680 --> 03:34:28.557
data. Like they they they they literally
if you know you talk to these people

03:34:28.640 --> 03:34:31.917
like lit literally the big models
the big models are like within a factor 2x

03:34:32.000 --> 03:34:34.637
of consuming all the human generated
training data to the point that some of

03:34:34.720 --> 03:34:37.597
these big companies are literally hiring
people like doctors and lawyers to sit

03:34:37.680 --> 03:34:39.517
and write new training data by hand.

03:34:39.600 --> 03:34:41.037
>> And so does this mean
that like you have

03:34:41.120 --> 03:34:43.517
to if you want your model to be better
at philosophy you have to go hire like a

03:34:43.600 --> 03:34:46.237
thousand philosophers and have them
write new content and is anybody going

03:34:46.320 --> 03:34:49.277
to do that? >> And so you
know maybe maybe these things

03:34:49.360 --> 03:34:51.597
are topping out in certain ways and
they're going to leap way ahead in other

03:34:51.680 --> 03:34:56.237
ways. And so anyway, so we just don't,
you know, I guess this this is I tell

03:34:56.320 --> 03:34:59.837
you maybe my main conclusion is I
I don't any of these anybody telling

03:34:59.920 --> 03:35:03.357
anybody telling you these big sweeping
conclusions, you know, this whole super,

03:35:03.440 --> 03:35:06.477
you know, all of these abstract
generalized super intelligence AGI stuff

03:35:06.560 --> 03:35:09.917
like it, you know, maybe it's the engineer
in me, but like no, like that's

03:35:10.000 --> 03:35:14.157
not the that's not the that's too
abstract. Like it it's got to actually

03:35:14.240 --> 03:35:18.717
work. Um and then by the way, it has
to actually have to be able to pay for it.

03:35:18.800 --> 03:35:21.437
Um, [laughter] I mean this is a problem
right now with, you know, the big

03:35:21.520 --> 03:35:23.837
models. The big models that are like
really good at coding a math, they're

03:35:23.920 --> 03:35:28.477
like actually very expensive to run.
You know, they're quite slow. Um, another

03:35:28.560 --> 03:35:30.317
trillion dollar question, future chips.

03:35:30.400 --> 03:35:33.837
Um, which I know you've talked a lot
about. Um, another trillion dollar

03:35:33.920 --> 03:35:37.437
question, um, yeah, I mean, all
the global issues. Oh, another trillion

03:35:37.520 --> 03:35:40.157
dollar question, censorship,

03:35:40.240 --> 03:35:42.557
right? Like and and and and um and all

03:35:42.640 --> 03:35:47.597
the as they say, all the uh human
feedback uh training process.

03:35:47.680 --> 03:35:49.917
Exactly. What are you training these
things to do? What are they allowed to

03:35:50.000 --> 03:35:53.117
talk about? How long do
they give you these inc how

03:35:53.200 --> 03:35:57.357
how often do they give you these
incredibly preachy moral lectures? How

03:35:57.440 --> 03:36:00.077
here's a here's a here's a good here's
a trillion dollar question. How many other

03:36:00.160 --> 03:36:05.137
countries want their country to run its
education system, healthare system, news

03:36:05.220 --> 03:36:07.437
[clears throat] system, political
system on the basis of an AI that's been

03:36:07.520 --> 03:36:11.917
trained according to the most
extreme leftwing California politics?

03:36:12.000 --> 03:36:15.117
Um, right? Because that's kind of what
they have on offer right now. And I

03:36:15.200 --> 03:36:19.757
think the answer to that is not very many.
So there's like massive open

03:36:19.840 --> 03:36:23.517
questions there about like what you know
and by the way like what morality are

03:36:23.600 --> 03:36:25.677
these things going to get trained on as a

03:36:25.760 --> 03:36:28.957
>> and that one we're cracking wide open

03:36:29.040 --> 03:36:30.877
with uh what's been happening over the

03:36:30.960 --> 03:36:33.357
past few months censorship on every

03:36:33.440 --> 03:36:36.397
level of these companies and just the

03:36:36.480 --> 03:36:38.797
very idea what truth means and what it

03:36:38.880 --> 03:36:43.677
means to be expand the Overton window
of LLMs or the Overton window of human

03:36:43.760 --> 03:36:46.157
discourse. Yeah. >> So,
what what I experienced, you know,

03:36:46.240 --> 03:36:48.717
going back to how we started, what I
experienced was, all right, social media

03:36:48.800 --> 03:36:52.397
censorship regime from hell, debanking,

03:36:52.480 --> 03:36:56.557
>> right, at like a large scale. Um,
and then the war on the crypto industry,

03:36:56.640 --> 03:37:00.077
trying to kill it, and then basically
declared intent to do the same thing to

03:37:00.160 --> 03:37:04.397
AI. Um, and to put AI under the same
kind of censorship and control regime as

03:37:04.480 --> 03:37:08.877
as as social media and the banks. And I
and I think this election tipped in in

03:37:08.960 --> 03:37:12.557
America. I think this election tipped
us from a timeline in which things were

03:37:12.640 --> 03:37:15.357
going to get really bad on that front
uh to a timeline in which I think things

03:37:15.440 --> 03:37:18.797
are going to be quite good. But look,
those same questions also apply outside

03:37:18.880 --> 03:37:22.637
the US. And you know, the EU is doing
their thing. They're being extremely

03:37:22.720 --> 03:37:26.317
draconian and they're trying to lock
in a political censorship regime on AI

03:37:26.400 --> 03:37:29.037
right now to that's so harsh that even
American AI companies are not even

03:37:29.120 --> 03:37:32.797
willing to launch new products in the EU
right now. Like that's not going to

03:37:32.880 --> 03:37:36.557
last. But like what what happens there,
right? And what what are the trade-offs?

03:37:36.640 --> 03:37:39.357
You know, what levels of censorship are
American companies going to have to sign

03:37:39.440 --> 03:37:42.877
up for if they want to operate in the EU?
Or is the EU still capable of

03:37:42.960 --> 03:37:45.357
generating its own AI companies? Or have

03:37:45.440 --> 03:37:47.977
we brain drained them

03:37:48.060 --> 03:37:50.637
[laughter] so that they can't? So, big

03:37:50.720 --> 03:37:53.837
questions. Uh, quick questions. So,

03:37:53.920 --> 03:37:58.237
you're very active on X,
a very unique character,

03:37:58.320 --> 03:37:59.837
um,

03:37:59.920 --> 03:38:04.237
flamboyant, exciting, bold. uh you post

03:38:04.320 --> 03:38:06.717
a lot. I think there's a meme I don't

03:38:06.800 --> 03:38:09.437
remember it exactly but that Elon posted

03:38:09.520 --> 03:38:11.677
something like uh inside Elon there are

03:38:11.760 --> 03:38:14.797
two wolves. One is please be kind or

03:38:14.880 --> 03:38:17.437
more positive and the other one is I

03:38:17.520 --> 03:38:20.957
think uh you know doing the uh take a

03:38:21.040 --> 03:38:24.637
big step back and [__]
yourself in the face guy.

03:38:24.720 --> 03:38:27.997
How many wolves are inside
your mind when you're tweeting

03:38:28.080 --> 03:38:31.117
>> to be clear a reference from
the comedy classic Tropic Thunder.

03:38:31.200 --> 03:38:33.597
>> Tropic Thunder. Yeah. Legendary movie.

03:38:33.680 --> 03:38:37.837
>> Yes. Um, [laughter] any
zoomers listening to this

03:38:37.920 --> 03:38:39.917
who haven't seen that movie,
go watch it immediately.

03:38:40.000 --> 03:38:41.437
>> Yeah, there's nothing
offensive about it.

03:38:41.520 --> 03:38:44.307
>> Nothing offensive about it at all. Um,

03:38:44.390 --> 03:38:48.877
[laughter] so Tom Cruz's
greatest performance.

03:38:48.960 --> 03:38:53.837
>> Um, so um, >> yeah. >> Yeah.
No, look, I just start by saying

03:38:53.920 --> 03:38:56.397
like I'm not supposed to be
tweeting at all. So >> Oh, yeah.

03:38:56.480 --> 03:39:01.357
>> Yes. Yes. Yes. So, but you know, >>
so how do you approach that? like how do

03:39:01.440 --> 03:39:04.797
you approach what to tweet?
>> I I mean I don't I look so it's it's a

03:39:04.880 --> 03:39:09.437
it's a um it it I I don't I don't well
enough. Um it's mostly an exercise in

03:39:09.520 --> 03:39:12.717
frustration. Um look there's a glory
to it and there's there's a there's an

03:39:12.800 --> 03:39:15.677
issue with it and the glory of it
is like you know instantaneous global

03:39:15.760 --> 03:39:19.437
communication you know in X in particular
is like the you know the town

03:39:19.520 --> 03:39:22.077
square on all these you know social
issues political issues everything else

03:39:22.160 --> 03:39:25.597
current events. Um but I mean look
there's no question the format the

03:39:25.680 --> 03:39:29.757
format of at least the original tweet
is you know prone to be inflammatory. You

03:39:29.840 --> 03:39:32.717
know, I'm I'm I'm the guy who at one
point the entire nation of India hated

03:39:32.800 --> 03:39:35.037
me. Um because I once tweeted something.

03:39:35.120 --> 03:39:38.557
It turned out that is still politically
sensitive. Um and the entire continent.

03:39:38.640 --> 03:39:42.637
Um I stayed up all night that night
as as I became front page headline and

03:39:42.720 --> 03:39:46.397
leading television news in each time
zone in India for a single tweet. So

03:39:46.480 --> 03:39:48.477
like the single tweet out of context is

03:39:48.560 --> 03:39:52.717
a very dangerous thing. Um obviously

03:39:52.800 --> 03:39:55.517
X now has the the middle ground where
they you know they they now have the

03:39:55.600 --> 03:39:58.877
longer form essays. Um, and so, um, you
know, probably the most productive thing

03:39:58.960 --> 03:40:03.677
I can do is is is longer form,
um, is is longer form things. Um,

03:40:03.760 --> 03:40:04.877
>> you're not going
to do it though, are you?

03:40:04.960 --> 03:40:07.677
>> I do. I do from time to time.
I think I should I should do more of them.

03:40:07.760 --> 03:40:10.797
>> And then, yeah, I mean, look, but and
yeah, and then obviously X is X is doing

03:40:10.880 --> 03:40:13.597
great. And then, uh, like I said,
like Substack, you know, has become the

03:40:13.680 --> 03:40:16.397
center for a lot, you know, a lot
of the I think the best kind of, you know,

03:40:16.480 --> 03:40:20.797
deeply thought through, you know,
certainly intellectual content. Um, you

03:40:20.880 --> 03:40:24.637
know, tons of current events, uh, stuff
there as well. Um, and then, um, yeah.

03:40:24.720 --> 03:40:26.797
So, and then there's a bunch of other,
you know, a bunch of new systems that

03:40:26.880 --> 03:40:29.277
are very exciting. So, I think one of
the things we can look forward to in the

03:40:29.360 --> 03:40:32.957
next four years is number one, just like
a massive reinvigoration of social media

03:40:33.040 --> 03:40:35.837
>> as a consequence of the changes
that are happening right now. Uh, and very

03:40:35.920 --> 03:40:38.797
excited to see the con to see what's
going to happen with that. And then, um,

03:40:38.880 --> 03:40:42.717
I it's happened on X, but it's now
going to happen on other platforms.

03:40:42.800 --> 03:40:46.637
>> And then, um, the other is, um, crypto
is going to come, you know, crypto is

03:40:46.720 --> 03:40:49.357
going to come right back to life.
Um, and actually that's very exciting.

03:40:49.440 --> 03:40:52.477
Actually, that's worth noting is that's
another trillion dollar question on AI,

03:40:52.560 --> 03:40:57.437
which is um in a world of pervasive AI
and especially in a world of AI agents,

03:40:57.520 --> 03:40:58.637
and imagine a world of billions or

03:40:58.720 --> 03:41:00.557
trillions of AI agents running around,

03:41:00.640 --> 03:41:05.917
they need an economy. Um and crypto
in our view happens to be the ideal

03:41:06.000 --> 03:41:08.637
economic system for that, right? Because
it's a programmable money. It's a very

03:41:08.720 --> 03:41:11.757
easy way to plug in and do that.
And there's this transaction processing

03:41:11.840 --> 03:41:15.117
system that can that can do that. And so,
I think the crypto AI intersection,

03:41:15.200 --> 03:41:19.997
you know, is potentially very a very
very big deal. Um, and so when that was

03:41:20.080 --> 03:41:22.717
that was going to be impossible under
the prior regime, and I think under the

03:41:22.800 --> 03:41:25.277
new regime, hopefully it'll
be something we can do.

03:41:25.360 --> 03:41:27.757
>> Uh, almost for fun, let me ask uh a

03:41:27.840 --> 03:41:32.637
friend of yours, Yan Lun, what are
your top 10 favorite things about Yan Lun?

03:41:32.720 --> 03:41:38.077
[laughter] >> He's uh I think he's
a he's a brilliant guy. I think he's

03:41:38.160 --> 03:41:42.157
important to the world. I think you
guys disagree on a lot of things, but I

03:41:42.240 --> 03:41:44.397
personally like vigorous disagreement. I

03:41:44.480 --> 03:41:49.197
as a person in the stands like
to watch the gladiators go at it. And

03:41:49.280 --> 03:41:52.317
>> no, he's a super genius. I mean, look,
I wouldn't say if we're super close, but

03:41:52.400 --> 03:41:55.117
you know, casual casual friends. I I
worked with him at Meta, you know, he's

03:41:55.200 --> 03:41:57.997
the chief scientist at Meta for a long
time and is still, you know, works with

03:41:58.080 --> 03:42:02.957
us and and um you know, and as obviously
he's a legendary figure in the field and

03:42:03.040 --> 03:42:06.477
one of the main people responsible
for what's happening. Um I it's my serious

03:42:06.560 --> 03:42:10.237
observation would be that it's it's
it's the thing I keep I've talked to him

03:42:10.320 --> 03:42:13.117
about for a long time and I keep trying
to read and follow everything he does is

03:42:13.200 --> 03:42:16.397
he's probably he is the I think see if

03:42:16.480 --> 03:42:21.117
you agree with this he is the smartest
and most credible critic of LLM is the

03:42:21.200 --> 03:42:25.197
path for AI. Um, and um,
he's not, you know, there's

03:42:25.280 --> 03:42:27.757
certain, I would say, troll like
characters who are just like crap on

03:42:27.840 --> 03:42:31.517
everything, but like Yan has like very
deeply thought through basically um,

03:42:31.600 --> 03:42:33.277
theories as to why LMs are an

03:42:33.360 --> 03:42:37.437
evolutionary dead end. Um, and um, and I

03:42:37.520 --> 03:42:40.477
actually like um, I I try to do this
thing where I try to model, you know, I

03:42:40.560 --> 03:42:42.637
try to have a mental model of like
the two different sides of a serious

03:42:42.720 --> 03:42:45.357
argument. And so I I've tried to like
internalize that argument as much as I

03:42:45.440 --> 03:42:48.317
can, which is difficult because
like we're investing it behind LM as

03:42:48.400 --> 03:42:52.157
aggressively as we can. So if he's right,
like that can be a big problem.

03:42:52.240 --> 03:42:56.637
But like we should also know that.
Um and then I sort of use his ideas to

03:42:56.720 --> 03:43:00.477
challenge all the bullish people, you
know, to really kind of test their level

03:43:00.560 --> 03:43:04.077
of knowledge. So I like to kind of grill
people like I'm not like I'm not you

03:43:04.160 --> 03:43:09.357
know I'm I'm I was not you know I
was got my CS degree 35 years ago. So I'm

03:43:09.440 --> 03:43:12.317
not like deep in the technology but like
if if to the extent I can understand

03:43:12.400 --> 03:43:16.477
Yan's points I can use them to um you
know to really surface a lot of the

03:43:16.560 --> 03:43:19.277
questions for the people who are more
bullish. Um and that's been I think very

03:43:19.360 --> 03:43:23.117
very productive. Um yeah. So I yeah
just it's very striking that you have

03:43:23.200 --> 03:43:27.517
somebody who is like that central in the
space who is actually like a full-on a

03:43:27.600 --> 03:43:31.117
full-on skeptic and and you know
and again as you this could go different

03:43:31.200 --> 03:43:33.197
ways. He could end up being very wrong.

03:43:33.280 --> 03:43:36.797
He could end up being totally right
or it could be that he will provoke the

03:43:36.880 --> 03:43:39.757
evolution of these systems to be
much better than they would have been.

03:43:39.840 --> 03:43:41.037
>> Yeah, he could be both right and wrong.

03:43:41.120 --> 03:43:43.037
I I first of all I do I do agree with

03:43:43.120 --> 03:43:45.837
that. He's one of the most legit and uh

03:43:45.920 --> 03:43:49.357
rigorous and deep critics of the LLM

03:43:49.440 --> 03:43:53.837
path to AGI. You know, his basic notion
is that there needs AI needs to have

03:43:53.920 --> 03:43:57.997
some physical understanding
of the physical world and

03:43:58.080 --> 03:44:02.237
that's very difficult to achieve with LLM.
So there and that that is a really

03:44:02.320 --> 03:44:04.477
good way to challenge the limitations of

03:44:04.560 --> 03:44:08.477
LLMs and so on. He's also been a vocal

03:44:08.560 --> 03:44:12.237
and a huge proponent of open source
which is a whole another which you have

03:44:12.320 --> 03:44:13.917
been as well >> which
is very useful. Yeah.

03:44:14.000 --> 03:44:15.597
>> And that's been just
fascinating to watch.

03:44:15.680 --> 03:44:17.757
>> And anti-doomer. >> Anti-doomer.

03:44:17.840 --> 03:44:20.157
>> Yeah. >> Yeah.
He's >> he's very anti-doomer.

03:44:20.240 --> 03:44:23.197
>> He embodies.
He also has many wolves inside.

03:44:23.280 --> 03:44:25.517
>> Yes, he does. Yes, he does.
Yes, he does. [laughter] He does.

03:44:25.600 --> 03:44:27.277
>> So, it's been really
really fun to watch.

03:44:27.360 --> 03:44:29.117
>> The other two Okay,
here's my other wolf

03:44:29.200 --> 03:44:30.637
coming out. Yeah. The other two of the

03:44:30.720 --> 03:44:34.237
three godfathers of AI are like radicals

03:44:34.320 --> 03:44:38.957
like like full-on left you know far-left
you know like they I would say like

03:44:39.040 --> 03:44:42.317
either Marxists or borderline Marxists
um and they're like I think quite

03:44:42.400 --> 03:44:45.677
extreme in their social and political
views and I think that feeds into their

03:44:45.760 --> 03:44:49.277
dumerism um and I think you know
they they they are lobbying for like

03:44:49.360 --> 03:44:52.397
draconian government I think what would
be ruinously destructive government

03:44:52.480 --> 03:44:56.237
legislation um and regulation and so
it's it's actually super helpful super

03:44:56.320 --> 03:44:59.597
super helpful to have Jan
as a counterpoint to those

03:44:59.680 --> 03:45:04.237
Another fun question. Uh, our mutual
friend Andrew Huberman. First maybe what

03:45:04.320 --> 03:45:08.477
do you love most about Andrew? And second,
what score on a scale of 1 to 10

03:45:08.560 --> 03:45:11.837
do you think he would give
you on your approach to health?

03:45:11.920 --> 03:45:16.237
>> Oh, three. >> Physical three.
You think you score that high, huh? Okay.

03:45:16.320 --> 03:45:18.877
>> Exactly. >> 10. That's good. [laughter]

03:45:18.960 --> 03:45:20.877
>> Exactly. Well,
so he he did he convinced

03:45:20.960 --> 03:45:23.997
me to stop drinking alcohol.
Um, which was a big successfully.

03:45:24.080 --> 03:45:26.797
>> Well, it was like my fa other than
my family, it was my favorite thing in the

03:45:26.880 --> 03:45:29.357
world. Yeah. >> And so it
was a major major reduction.

03:45:29.440 --> 03:45:32.397
Like having like a glass of scotch
at night was like a major like it was like

03:45:32.480 --> 03:45:35.677
the thing I would do to relax. And so
he has profoundly negatively impacted my

03:45:35.760 --> 03:45:39.277
emotional health.
>> Um [laughter] I uh I blame him for

03:45:39.360 --> 03:45:42.797
making me much less happy as a person,
but much much much healthier.

03:45:42.880 --> 03:45:45.517
>> Yeah. >> Uh physically
healthier. So that that I

03:45:45.600 --> 03:45:49.437
I credit him with that. I'm glad I did
that. Um but then his sleep stuff, like

03:45:49.520 --> 03:45:51.037
yeah, I'm not doing any of that.

03:45:51.120 --> 03:45:53.037
>> Yeah. >> I have no
interest in his sleep [__]

03:45:53.120 --> 03:45:56.077
Like no this whole light, natural light.

03:45:56.160 --> 03:45:58.237
No, we're not doing that.
>> You're too hardcore for this. I

03:45:58.320 --> 03:46:00.877
>> don't see any say I don't see any
natural I don't see any natural light in

03:46:00.960 --> 03:46:04.237
here. >> It's all covered.
>> It's all horrible.

03:46:04.320 --> 03:46:08.077
>> And I'm very happy. I would be very
happy living and working here cuz I'm

03:46:08.160 --> 03:46:10.397
totally happy without
natural light >> in darkness.

03:46:10.480 --> 03:46:12.637
>> Yes. >> It must be
a metaphor for something.

03:46:12.720 --> 03:46:15.197
>> Yes. It's a test. Look, it's a test
of manhood as to whether you could have a

03:46:15.280 --> 03:46:17.837
blue screen in your face for 3 hours
and then go right to sleep. Like I don't

03:46:17.920 --> 03:46:21.277
understand why you should
want to take shortcuts.

03:46:21.360 --> 03:46:23.597
>> Um I now understand what they mean by

03:46:23.680 --> 03:46:29.000
toxic masculinity. All right.

03:46:29.120 --> 03:46:32.637
So, uh, let's see. You're exceptionally

03:46:32.720 --> 03:46:35.997
successful by most measures,

03:46:36.080 --> 03:46:39.997
but what to you is the
definition of success.

03:46:40.080 --> 03:46:42.957
>> I would probably
say it is a combination

03:46:43.040 --> 03:46:46.317
of two things. I think it is um

03:46:46.400 --> 03:46:48.077
contribution.

03:46:48.160 --> 03:46:49.997
Um, so you know, have you done something

03:46:50.080 --> 03:46:54.077
that mattered ultimately? Um and um and

03:46:54.160 --> 03:46:57.517
you know and specifically it matter to
people. Um and then the other thing is I

03:46:57.600 --> 03:47:02.877
think happiness is either overrated
or almost a complete myth. Um and in fact

03:47:02.960 --> 03:47:05.277
interesting Thomas Jefferson did
not mean happiness the way that we

03:47:05.360 --> 03:47:07.917
understand it when he said pursuit
of happiness in the Declaration of

03:47:08.000 --> 03:47:12.477
Independence. He meant it more of the
the Greek meaning um which is closer to

03:47:12.560 --> 03:47:16.557
satisfaction or fulfillment.
Um, and so I [laughter]

03:47:16.640 --> 03:47:21.437
think happiness is so I think about
happiness as the first the first ice

03:47:21.520 --> 03:47:25.037
cream cone makes you super happy.
The first mile of the walk in the park and

03:47:25.120 --> 03:47:29.357
during sunset makes you super happy.
The first kiss makes you super happy. The

03:47:29.440 --> 03:47:31.757
thousandth ice cream cone,

03:47:31.840 --> 03:47:34.797
not so much. Um, the thousandth mile of

03:47:34.880 --> 03:47:38.797
the walk through the park. Um,
the thousandth kiss can still be good, but

03:47:38.880 --> 03:47:43.597
maybe just not right in a row. Um,
right. And so happiness is this very

03:47:43.680 --> 03:47:47.357
fleeting concept. Um, and the people
who anger on happiness seem to go off the

03:47:47.440 --> 03:47:49.437
rails pretty often. So did the deep

03:47:49.520 --> 03:47:56.360
sense of having been I don't
know how to put it useful.

03:47:57.520 --> 03:48:00.317
>> So that's a good place
to arrive at in life.

03:48:00.400 --> 03:48:04.877
>> Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I mean like can
you sit can yeah you know who was it who

03:48:04.960 --> 03:48:07.677
said that all this the source of all the
ills in the world is man's inability to

03:48:07.760 --> 03:48:10.397
sit in a room by himself doing nothing.

03:48:10.480 --> 03:48:13.117
Um, but like if you're sitting in a room
by yourself and you're like, "All

03:48:13.200 --> 03:48:15.997
right," or, you know, 4 in the morning
and it's like, "All right, have I like,

03:48:16.080 --> 03:48:19.197
you know, have I lived up
to my expectation of myself,

03:48:19.280 --> 03:48:21.917
like if you have, you know, the people
I know who feel that way are are pretty

03:48:22.000 --> 03:48:26.637
centered, um, and, um, you know,
generally seem very, um, I don't know

03:48:26.720 --> 03:48:29.917
how to put it, pleased
with, you know, proud,

03:48:30.000 --> 03:48:32.557
um, calm, at peace,

03:48:32.640 --> 03:48:37.277
um, the people who are, um,
you know, sensation seekers. Um

03:48:37.360 --> 03:48:39.677
you know some of the sensations
by the way some s you know there's there's

03:48:39.760 --> 03:48:42.077
certain entrepreneurs for example
who are like in every form of extreme

03:48:42.160 --> 03:48:45.997
extreme sport and they get you know huge
satisfaction out of that um or you know

03:48:46.080 --> 03:48:48.637
there's sensation seeking in sort
of useful and productive ways you know

03:48:48.720 --> 03:48:52.557
Larry Ellison was always like that
Zuckerberg's like that and then you know

03:48:52.640 --> 03:48:53.997
there's a lot of entrepreneurs who end

03:48:54.080 --> 03:48:56.737
up you know drugs

03:48:56.820 --> 03:49:01.277
[laughter] you know like sexual you know
sexual escapades that seem like they'll

03:49:01.360 --> 03:49:02.797
be fun at first and then backfire.

03:49:02.880 --> 03:49:07.197
>> Yeah. But at the end of the day,
if you're able to be at peace by yourself

03:49:07.280 --> 03:49:09.357
in a room at 4:00 a.m. >> Yeah.

03:49:09.440 --> 03:49:11.597
>> And I would even
say happy, but I know I

03:49:11.680 --> 03:49:13.597
understand Thomas Jefferson didn't mean

03:49:13.680 --> 03:49:19.197
it the way the way maybe I mean it, but I
can be happy about myself at 4:00 a.m.

03:49:19.280 --> 03:49:21.837
with a blue screen.
>> That's good. Exactly.

03:49:21.920 --> 03:49:26.200
>> Staring at cursor. >> Exactly.

03:49:26.560 --> 03:49:30.717
As a small tangent, a quick shout out
to an amazing interview you did with Barry

03:49:30.800 --> 03:49:35.597
Weiss and just to her in general, Barry
Weiss of uh the free press. She has a

03:49:35.680 --> 03:49:37.437
podcast called Honestly with Bear Weiss.

03:49:37.520 --> 03:49:39.837
She's great. People should go listen.

03:49:39.920 --> 03:49:45.037
You were asked if you believe in God.

03:49:45.120 --> 03:49:48.077
One of the joys, see we talked about
happiness. One of the things that makes

03:49:48.160 --> 03:49:50.237
me happy is making you uncomfortable.

03:49:50.320 --> 03:49:54.077
>> Thank you. So the this question is
designed for many of the questions today

03:49:54.160 --> 03:49:55.997
are designed for that. You [snorts] were

03:49:56.080 --> 03:49:57.837
asked if you believe in God and you said

03:49:57.920 --> 03:50:01.197
after a pause that you're not sure. So

03:50:01.280 --> 03:50:03.597
it felt like the pause

03:50:03.680 --> 03:50:07.517
the uncertainty there was uh uh some

03:50:07.600 --> 03:50:09.597
kind of ongoing search for wisdom and

03:50:09.680 --> 03:50:13.357
meaning. Uh are you in fact searching

03:50:13.440 --> 03:50:14.717
for wisdom and meaning?

03:50:14.800 --> 03:50:17.517
>> I guess I put it this way.
There's a lot

03:50:17.600 --> 03:50:20.877
to just understand about people that I

03:50:20.960 --> 03:50:24.957
feel like I'm only starting to understand.

03:50:25.040 --> 03:50:27.517
Um, and that's certainly a simpler

03:50:27.600 --> 03:50:31.997
concept than God. [laughter] So,
um, that's what I spent a lot of the

03:50:32.080 --> 03:50:35.197
last, you know, 15 years trying to figure
out. I feel like I spent my first

03:50:35.280 --> 03:50:38.157
like whatever 30 years figuring out
machines and then now I'm spending 30

03:50:38.240 --> 03:50:40.877
years figuring out people, which turns
out to be quite a bit more complicated.

03:50:40.960 --> 03:50:42.797
Um, and then I don't know, maybe God's

03:50:42.880 --> 03:50:48.317
the last 30 years or something.
Um uh and then you know look I mean just

03:50:48.400 --> 03:50:51.517
you know like like Elon is just like
okay the known universe is like very you

03:50:51.600 --> 03:50:55.277
know complicated and you know mystifying.
I mean every time I you know

03:50:55.360 --> 03:50:57.757
pull up an astronomy you know my kids
get super in astronomy and it's like you

03:50:57.840 --> 03:51:00.797
know you know daddy how many galaxies
are there in the universe and you know

03:51:00.880 --> 03:51:03.677
what's how many galaxies
are there in the universe?

03:51:03.760 --> 03:51:08.440
>> 100 billion. >> Okay. Like how

03:51:08.720 --> 03:51:11.997
>> like how is that
freaking possible? Like

03:51:12.080 --> 03:51:15.997
what? Like it's just it's such
a staggering concept that I

03:51:16.080 --> 03:51:17.917
>> I actually wanted to show you a tweet

03:51:18.000 --> 03:51:23.037
that blew my mind from Elon from a while
back. He said uh Elon said as a friend

03:51:23.120 --> 03:51:24.717
called it, this is the ultimate skill

03:51:24.800 --> 03:51:30.877
tree. This is a wall of galaxies,
>> a billion light years across.

03:51:30.960 --> 03:51:32.877
>> Yeah. >> So these are all galaxies.

03:51:32.960 --> 03:51:38.397
>> Yeah. Like what the like how how
is it that big? like how the hell like you

03:51:38.480 --> 03:51:40.797
know I can read the textbook and the
this and the that and the whatever 8

03:51:40.880 --> 03:51:43.517
billion years and the big bang and the
whole thing and then it's just like all

03:51:43.600 --> 03:51:44.797
right wow and then it's like all right

03:51:44.880 --> 03:51:47.437
the big bang all right like what was

03:51:47.520 --> 03:51:50.557
what was before the big bang

03:51:50.640 --> 03:51:52.317
>> you think we'll
ever we humans will ever

03:51:52.400 --> 03:51:56.397
colonize like a galaxy
and maybe even go beyond

03:51:56.480 --> 03:51:58.877
>> sure I mean yeah I mean
in the fullness of time yeah

03:51:58.960 --> 03:52:01.837
>> so you have that kind of optimism
you have that kind of hope that extends

03:52:01.920 --> 03:52:03.677
across thousand >> in the
fullness of time I mean yeah I

03:52:03.760 --> 03:52:05.917
mean yeah you know all the all the
problem all the challenges with it that

03:52:06.000 --> 03:52:09.357
I do But like, yeah, why not? I mean,
again, in the fullness of time, it'll

03:52:09.440 --> 03:52:11.517
it'll take a long time. >> You
don't think we'll destroy ourselves?

03:52:11.600 --> 03:52:15.857
>> No, I I doubt it. I doubt it.
And, you know, fortunately, we have Elon

03:52:15.940 --> 03:52:19.117
[laughter] giving us giving us the the
backup plan. So, so I don't know. Like,

03:52:19.200 --> 03:52:21.597
I grew up, you know, rural Midwest
sort of just like conventionally kind of

03:52:21.680 --> 03:52:25.437
Protestant Christian. Um, it never made
that much sense to me. Got trained as an

03:52:25.520 --> 03:52:28.077
engineer and a scientist. I'm like, "Oh,
that definitely doesn't make sense." I'm

03:52:28.160 --> 03:52:30.957
like, "I know. I'll spend my life
as an empirical, you know, rationalist and

03:52:31.040 --> 03:52:34.317
I'll I'll figure everything out." And
then, you know, and then again, you walk

03:52:34.400 --> 03:52:37.837
up against these things, you know,
you you bump up against these things and

03:52:37.920 --> 03:52:40.717
you're just like, "All right, I like,
okay, I guess there's a scientific

03:52:40.800 --> 03:52:44.157
explanation for this, but like, wow."

03:52:44.240 --> 03:52:47.357
Um, and then there's like, "All right,
where did that come from?" Um, right.

03:52:47.440 --> 03:52:52.077
And then how how far back can you go on
the causality chain? Um, yeah. And then,

03:52:52.160 --> 03:52:54.637
yeah, I mean, then even even just,
you know, experiences that we all have on

03:52:54.720 --> 03:52:57.357
Earth, it's it's hard to it's hard to
rationally explain it all. And then, you

03:52:57.440 --> 03:53:01.597
know, so yeah, I guess I just say I'm
kind of radically open-minded. um at

03:53:01.680 --> 03:53:04.877
peace with the fact that I'll probably
never know. Um the other thing though

03:53:04.960 --> 03:53:07.997
that's happened and maybe the more more
practical answer to the question is um I

03:53:08.080 --> 03:53:11.837
think I have a much better understanding
now of the role that religion plays in

03:53:11.920 --> 03:53:16.637
society that I didn't have when I
was younger. Um and my partner Ben has a

03:53:16.720 --> 03:53:19.597
great I think he quotes his father
on this. He's like if if a man does not

03:53:19.680 --> 03:53:21.117
have a real religion he makes up a fake

03:53:21.200 --> 03:53:24.157
one. Um and the fake ones go very very

03:53:24.240 --> 03:53:29.197
badly. Um and so there's
this class it's actually really

03:53:29.280 --> 03:53:30.957
funny. There's this class of intellectual.
There's this class of

03:53:31.040 --> 03:53:33.677
intellectual that has what appears to be
a very patronizing point of view, which

03:53:33.760 --> 03:53:35.997
is yes, I'm an atheist, but it's very

03:53:36.080 --> 03:53:40.957
important that the people believe
in something, right? And Mark's had like

03:53:41.040 --> 03:53:43.517
the negative view on that, which
is religionist, OP to the masses, but

03:53:43.600 --> 03:53:45.757
there's a lot of like right-wing
intellectuals who are themselves, I

03:53:45.840 --> 03:53:48.317
think, pretty atheist, agnostic, that are
like it's deeply important that the

03:53:48.400 --> 03:53:52.397
people be Christian or or something like
that. Um, and on the one hand it's like,

03:53:52.480 --> 03:53:55.597
wow, that's arrogant, presumptive. But
on the other hand, you know, maybe it's

03:53:55.680 --> 03:54:00.397
right because, you know, what have we
learned in the last hundred years is in

03:54:00.480 --> 03:54:04.797
the absence of a real religion, people
will make up fake ones. Um, there's this

03:54:04.880 --> 03:54:07.357
writer, there's this political
philosopher who's super interesting on

03:54:07.440 --> 03:54:11.197
this named Eric Boglin. And he wrote
this, he wrote in the sort of mid mid

03:54:11.280 --> 03:54:14.957
part of the century, mid late part
of the 20th century. He's like born in I

03:54:15.040 --> 03:54:18.237
think like 1900 and like died in like 85.
So he saw the complete run of

03:54:18.320 --> 03:54:23.437
communism and and uh and Nazism
and himself you know fled I think he

03:54:23.520 --> 03:54:27.837
fled Europe and and you know the whole
thing. Um and um you know his his sort

03:54:27.920 --> 03:54:31.277
of big conclusion was basically that
both communism and Nazism and fascism

03:54:31.360 --> 03:54:36.157
were were basically religions were were
but like in the deep way of religions

03:54:36.240 --> 03:54:38.717
like they were you know he called them
political religions but they they were

03:54:38.800 --> 03:54:42.717
like actual religions and you know they
were the they were what Nze forecasted

03:54:42.800 --> 03:54:45.917
when he said you know God is dead we've
killed him and we won't wash the blood

03:54:46.000 --> 03:54:49.997
off our hands for a thousand years right
um is we will come up with new religions

03:54:50.080 --> 03:54:54.557
that will just cause just mass murder
and death. Um, and like you you read his

03:54:54.640 --> 03:54:57.677
stuff now and you're like, "Yep, [clears
throat] that happened." Right? And then of

03:54:57.760 --> 03:55:00.477
course as fully, you know, elite
moderates, of course, we couldn't

03:55:00.560 --> 03:55:04.637
possibly be doing that to ourselves
right now, but of course we are. And you

03:55:04.720 --> 03:55:07.917
know, I would argue that Eric Vogelan
for sure would argue that the last 10

03:55:08.000 --> 03:55:11.197
years, you know, we have been in a
religious frenzy. You know, that that

03:55:11.280 --> 03:55:14.717
woke has been a full-scale religious
frenzy. Um, and has had all of the

03:55:14.800 --> 03:55:16.477
characteristics of a religion, including

03:55:16.560 --> 03:55:18.077
everything from patron saints to holy

03:55:18.160 --> 03:55:22.237
texts to, you know, sin. It's said

03:55:22.320 --> 03:55:26.397
wokenness has said every aspect of a
wokeness has said every I think it's

03:55:26.480 --> 03:55:30.717
said every single aspect of an actual
religion other than redemption

03:55:30.800 --> 03:55:33.597
right which is maybe like the most
dangerous religion you could ever come

03:55:33.680 --> 03:55:36.557
up with is the one where
there's no forgiveness

03:55:36.640 --> 03:55:39.437
right so I think if Voggan were alive
I think he would have zeroed right in on

03:55:39.520 --> 03:55:43.437
that would have said that um and you
know we just like sailed right off I

03:55:43.520 --> 03:55:46.077
mentioned earlier like we we somehow
rediscover the religions of the

03:55:46.160 --> 03:55:50.237
Indo-Uropeans were all into identity
politics and environmentalism

03:55:50.320 --> 03:55:52.637
like I don't I think that's an accident.

03:55:52.720 --> 03:55:54.397
So, so anyway, like there there is

03:55:54.480 --> 03:55:56.797
something very deep going on in the

03:55:56.880 --> 03:56:01.277
human psyche um on religion that is not

03:56:01.360 --> 03:56:03.997
dismissible

03:56:04.080 --> 03:56:06.717
and needs to be taken seriously even if

03:56:06.800 --> 03:56:08.637
one struggles with the the um specifics

03:56:08.720 --> 03:56:11.197
of it. I think I speak for a lot of

03:56:11.280 --> 03:56:13.757
people that it's been a real joy and for

03:56:13.840 --> 03:56:17.437
me an honor to get to watch you

03:56:17.520 --> 03:56:21.597
uh seek to understand the human psyche
as you described. You're in that 30-year

03:56:21.680 --> 03:56:25.837
part of your life.
>> Um and it's been an honor to talk with

03:56:25.920 --> 03:56:30.077
you today. Thank you, Mark. >> Thank
you, Alex. Is that it? That's only

03:56:30.160 --> 03:56:34.317
only how long is that?
>> Four hours with uh Mark Andrew is like

03:56:34.400 --> 03:56:38.397
40 hours of actual content. So >> I
I I'll accept being one of the short

03:56:38.480 --> 03:56:40.397
ones. Uh for the [laughter] for the

03:56:40.480 --> 03:56:43.037
listener, Mark looks like he's ready to

03:56:43.120 --> 03:56:48.157
go for 20 more hours and I need a nap.
[laughter] Thank you, Mark.

03:56:48.240 --> 03:56:50.877
>> Thank you, Lex.
>> Thanks for listening to this

03:56:50.960 --> 03:56:54.877
conversation with Mark Andre. To support
this podcast, please check out our

03:56:54.960 --> 03:56:57.677
sponsors in the description. And now,

03:56:57.760 --> 03:57:01.997
let me leave you with some
words from Thomas Soul.

03:57:02.080 --> 03:57:07.197
It takes considerable knowledge just
to realize the extent of your own

03:57:07.280 --> 03:57:08.957
ignorance.

03:57:09.040 --> 03:57:14.760
Thank you for listening
and hope to see you next time.

03:57:22.480 --> 03:57:24.500
>> [music]