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The following is a conversation with

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Mark Andre, his second time on the

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podcast. Mark is a visionary tech leader

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and investor who fundamentally shaped
the development of the internet and the

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tech industry in general over the past

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30 years. He is the co-creator of

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Mosaic, the first widely used web
browser, co-founder of Netscape,

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co-founder of the legendary Silicon

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Valley venture capital firm Andre

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Horowitz, and is one of the most

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influential voices in the tech world,

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including at the intersection
of technology and politics.

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And now, a quick few second mention
of each sponsor. Check them out in the

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description. It's the best way
to support this podcast. We got Encord for

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unifying your ML stack, GitHub for

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programming, notion for team projects

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and collaboration, Shopify for merch,

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and Element for hydration. Choose wisely,
my friends. Also, if you want to

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get in touch with me for whatever
reason, go to lexfreeman.com/cont.

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And now on to the full ad reads.
No ads in the middle. I try to make this

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interesting, but if you skip them,

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please still check out the sponsors.
I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too.

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This episode is brought to you by

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Encord, a platform that provides data

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focused AI tooling for data annotation,

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curation, and management, and for model

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evaluation once you train up the model

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on the data that you curate. In this

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conversation with Mark Andre, we

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actually discuss what he calls kind of

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like the trillion dollar questions. And

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one of them for AI is how effective will

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synthetic data be? It really isn't an

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open question. What piece, what fraction

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of the intelligence of future models

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will be based on training on synthetic

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data at the top AI labs. I'm hearing a

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lot of optimism. As far as I can tell,

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that optimism is not currently, at least

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in the general case, based on any real

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evidence. So, I do think synthetic data

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will play a part, but how big a part?

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There's still going to be some curation
from humans. There's still going to need

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to be a human in the loop. I think the

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real question is how do you effectively

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integrate the human in the loop so that

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the synthetic data sort of 99 synthetic

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1% human

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[sighs] that combination
can be most effective.

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That's a real question and uh companies
like Encord are trying to solve that

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very problem. First of all, they want to

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provide the tooling for the annotation

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for the actual um human collaboration

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but also asking and answering the

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research question of like how do you

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pull it all off and make the resulting
model more intelligent for very specific

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applications and for the general
applications. Yeah. So, Encore does a

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really good job on the tooling side. Go

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try them out to curate, annotate, and

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manage your AI data at encord.com/lex.

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That's encord.com/lex.

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This episode is brought to you by GitHub

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and GitHub Copilot. If you don't know

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what that is, my friends, you're in for

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a joyous, beautiful surprise.

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I think a lot of people that program

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regularly know and love GitHub and know

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and love Copilot. It's the OG AI

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programming assistant and uh it's the

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one that's really trying to win this

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very competitive space. It is not easy.

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If you're somebody that uses VS Code,

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obviously, well, maybe not obviously,
but uh you can use GitHub copilot in VS

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Code, but you can use it also in other

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IDE. I'm going to be honest with you,
it's a very competitive space. I'm

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trying all the different tools in the

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space, and I really love how much GitHub

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and GitHub Copilot want to win in this
competitive space. So, I'm excitedly

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sort of sitting back and just eating
popcorn like that uh Michael Jackson

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meme [snorts] [laughter]

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and just enjoying the hell out of it.

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And uh like I said, I'm going to be

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doing a bunch of programming

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episodes including with Prime and he I

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think has a lovehate relationship with

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AI and with uh AI agents and

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with the role of AI in the programming
experience and he's really at the

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forefront of people that are playing

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with all these languages with all these

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different applications with all the

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different use cases of code and he as a

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U of Mim user, so he's going to be

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skeptical in general of new technology.

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He's a kagon sitting on a porch
on rocking chairs, screaming at the kids,

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throwing stuff at them. But at the same

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time, he's able to play with the kids as

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well. So I am more on the kids side with

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a childlike joy, enjoy the new

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technology. For me, basically everything

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I do programming wise

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has the possibility of AI either

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reviewing it or assisting it.
It's constantly in the loop. Even if I'm

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writing stuff from scratch, I'm always

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just kind of one second away from asking

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a question about the code or asking it
to generate or rewrite a certain line or

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to add a few more lines, all that kind
of stuff. So, I'm constantly constantly

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using it. If you're learning to code or

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if you're an advanced programmer,

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it is really important that you get
better and better at using AI as an

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assistant programmer. Get started with

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GitHub Copilot for free
today at gh.io/copilot.

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This episode is also brought to you by

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Notion, a note takingaking and team

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collaboration tool that Mark Andre on

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this very episode sings a lot of praises
to. I believe he sings, was it on mic or

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off mic? I don't remember. But anyway,

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he loves it. It's one of the tools, one

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of the companies, one of the ecosystems

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that integrate AI really effectively for

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team applications. When you have

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uh let's see, like docs and wikis and

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projects and all that kind of stuff. You

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can have the AI load all that in and

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answer questions based on that. You can
connect a bunch of apps like you could

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connect Slack, you can connect Google

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Drive. I think in the context we were

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talking about something like notion for

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email for like Gmail. I don't know if

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Notion integrates email yet. I mean

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they're just like this machine that's
constantly increasing the productivity

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of every aspect of your life. So I'm
sure they're going to start integrating

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more and more apps. I use it for Slack

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and Google Drive, but I use it primarily
at the individual level for note-taking

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and even at the individual level. Just
incredible what Notion AI can do. Try it

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out for free when you go to

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notion.com/lex.

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That's all lowercase notion.com/ lex to

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try the power of notion AI today. This

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episode is also brought to you by Shopify,
a platform designed for anyone

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to sell anywhere with a great looking

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online store. Very few people embody the

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uh the joy and the power of uh

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capitalism

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than Mark Andre. I believe Mark and Toby

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are friends. I was at a thing where Mark

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and Toby were both there and we were
chatting and they were very friendly. So

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I think they're friends and I got
to hang out with Toby and is again

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incredible person. I say it again
and again. It's almost becoming funny that

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uh eventually we'll do a podcast.

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[snorts] [laughter] I don't
know why we haven't done a

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podcast. There's a few people in my life

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where uh it's like like Jeffrey Hinton

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is one of those people. It's like we've

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agreed to do a podcast for so long

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and we've just been kind
of lazy about it. [gasps]

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And uh Toby is the same. Anyway, he's
the co of Shopify. I don't even know if

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he knows that Shopify sponsors this

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podcast. It doesn't matter. It goes
without saying. It should be obvious to

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everybody that one doesn't affect
the other. I am very fortunate to have way

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more sponsors than uh we can possibly

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fit. So, I can pick whoever the hell I

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want. And uh whatever guest I choose

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will never have anything to do with the

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companies that sponsor the podcast.

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There's no there's not even like
a tinge of influence. In fact, if there's

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anything, it'll be the opposite direction.
But I also try to avoid that,

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you know. Uh it's possible I talked
to the CEO of GitHub, for example, on this

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podcast, and GitHub sponsors this podcast.
It's possible I talked to the

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CEO of Shopify, Toby, and uh Shopify

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sponsors this podcast. One doesn't

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affect the other. And obviously, again,

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goes without saying, but let me say it.

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make it explicit that nobody can buy

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their way onto the podcast, whether

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through sponsorships

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or buying me dinner or whatever. I don't

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know. This this just it's impossible.

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And most likely, if that's attempted,

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it's going to backfire. So, I think

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people intuitively know not to attempt

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cuz it would really piss me off. Anyway,

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this is a uh detour. We're supposed to

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talk about Shopify. I have a Shopify

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store, luxury.com/store, that sells

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t-shirts, but you can sell uh more
sophisticated stuff, make a lot of

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money, and participate in this beautiful
machinery of capitalism. Sign up for a

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$1 per month trial period
at shopify.com/llex. That's all lowercase.

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Go to shopify.com/llex to take your
business to the next level today. This

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episode is also brought to you
by Element, my daily zero sugar and

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delicious electrolyte mix of which I

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consume very ridiculously large amounts.

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You know, salt used to be currency in

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the ancient world. How silly are humans

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or not silly? how sort of surprising

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the things we converge on as uh being

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the store of value. Just value in

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general. The kind of things we assign

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value to together. We just kind of all

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agree that this item, this material,

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this idea, this building is extremely

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valuable. And then we compete over that

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resource or that idea or that building

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and we fight and sometimes there is uh
wars and sometimes there is complete

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destruction and the rise and fall of

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empires all over some resource.

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What a funny, strange little world.

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Mostly harmless as uh Hitchhiker's Guide

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to the Galaxy summarizes humans. For some
reason, instead of that book, I was

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going to say Catcher in the Rye. In my

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exhausted brain, the books kind of all

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morphed together. But Catcher and the Ry
is a really damn good book. All the

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classics I return to often the simple

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books are just even like the first book

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I read in English trivial book trivial

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book called the giver it's like I return

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to it in its simplicity maybe it's um

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maybe has sentimental value maybe that's
what it is but just the simplicity of

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words animal farm I've read I don't know
how many times probably over 50 times I

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return to it over and over
and over the simplicity

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the poetry of that simplicity.
It's something that just resonates with my

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brain. Maybe it's a peculiar kind of

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brain. It is a peculiar kind of brain.

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And I have to thank you for being

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patient with this peculiar kind of

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00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,157
brain. Get a sample pack for free with

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00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,157
uh any purchase of whatever the thing I

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00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:20,360
was talking about, which I think
is element. Try it at drinklement.com/lex.

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This is a Lex Freedman podcast.
To support it, please check out our

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00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,717
sponsors in the description. And now,

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dear friends, here's Mark and

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All right, let's start with optimism.

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If you were to imagine the best possible

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one to two years, 2025, 26 for tech, for

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big tech and small tech, what would it be?
What would it look like? Lay out

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your vision for the best possible
scenario trajectory for America.

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>> The roaring 20s. >> The roaring 20s.

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>> The roaring 20s. I mean, look, a couple
things. It is remarkable over the last

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several years with all of the issues,
including, you know, every not just

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everything in politics, but also co and
every other thing that's happened. It's

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really amazing. And the United States
just kept growing. If you just look at

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economic growth charts, the US just kept
growing. And very significantly, many

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other countries stopped growing.
So Canada stopped growing, the UK has

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stopped growing, Germany has stopped
growing. And you know, some of those

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countries may be actually going
backwards at this point. And there's a

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very long [laughter] discussion to be
had about what's wrong with those

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countries. And there's of course
plenty of things that are wrong with our

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country. But um the US is just flatout

248
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primed for growth. Um and I think that's

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a consequence of many factors. um you
know some of which were are lucky and

250
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some of which through hard work and so
the lucky part is just you know number

251
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one you know we just have like
incredible physical security by being

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our own continent um you know we have
incredible natural resources right

253
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there's there's there's this running
joke now that like whenever it looks

254
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like the US is going to run out of some
like rare earth material you know some

255
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farmer in North Dakota like kicks over
a hay bale and finds like a $2 trillion

256
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,757
deposit >> right I mean
we're just like blessed you

257
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,077
know with with with geography and with
natural resources um energy you know we

258
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can be energy independent anytime
we want Um, this last administration

259
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,237
decided they didn't want to be. They
wanted to turn off American energy. This

260
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,597
new administration has declared that
they have a goal of turning it on in a

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dramatic way. There's no question we can
be energy independent. We can be a giant

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net energy exporter. It's purely
a question of choice. Um, and I think that

263
00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,557
the new administration is going to do
that. Um, and so we and oh, and then I

264
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would say two other things. One is um,
you know, we we are the beneficiaries

265
00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:36,877
and you know, you're an example of this.

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We're a beneficiary. we're
the beneficiary of, you know, 50, 100, 200

267
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years of like the basically most
aggressive driven, smartest people in

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the world, most capable people, you know,
moving to the US and raising their

269
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kids here. Um, and so we just have, you
know, by far the most dynamic, you know,

270
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we're by far the most dynamic
population, most aggressive um, you

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know, we're the most aggressive set
of characters in certainly in in any

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western country and have been for a long
time and certainly are today. Um, and

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then finally, I would just say look,
we are overwhelmingly the advanced

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technology leader. um you know we we
have our issues and we have a I would

275
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say particular issue with manufacturing
which we could talk about but for you

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00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,917
know anything in software anything in AI
anything in um you know all these you

277
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,197
know advanced biotech all these advanced
areas of technology like we're we're by

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00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,997
far the leader again in part because
many of the best scientists and

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00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:24,077
engineers in those fields you know you
know come to the US um and so we we we

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just we have all of the preconditions
for a uh for just a monster um boom you

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know I could see economic growth going
way up I could see productivity growth

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going way up rate of technology adoption
going way up and then we could we can do

283
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:39,517
a global tour if you like, but like
basically all of our competitors have

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00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,317
like profound issues and you know we
could kind of go through them one by

285
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:46,797
one, but the the competitive landscape
just is it's like it's it's remarkable

286
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,237
how u how how much better
positioned we are for growth.

287
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,157
>> What about the humans
themselves? Almost

288
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,997
philosophical questions. You know,
I travel across the world and there's

289
00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,957
something about the American spirit,
the entrepreneurial spirit that's uniquely

290
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:02,557
intense in America. I don't know what

291
00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,317
that is. Uh I I've talked to uh Saga who

292
00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,797
claims it might be the Scots-Irish blood

293
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,517
that runs through uh the history of

294
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:16,317
America. What is it? You at the heart
of Silicon Valley. Is there something in

295
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,597
the water? Why is there
this entrepreneurial spirit?

296
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,917
>> Yeah. So, is this a family
show or am I allowed to swear

297
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:23,997
>> you you can say
whatever the [__] you want?

298
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:27,837
>> Okay. So, the TV the great TV show
Succession. The show of course that

299
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,877
which you were intended to root for
exactly zero of the characters. Yes. The

300
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,077
best line from Succession was in the
final episode of the first season when

301
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:38,237
the whole family's over in uh Logan
Royy's ancestral homeland of Scotland

302
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,437
and they're at this castle, you know,
for some wedding and Logan is just like

303
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,917
completely miserable after having to,
you know, because he's been in New York

304
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:47,677
for 50 years. He's totally miserable
being back in in um in Scotland and he

305
00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,397
gets in some argument with somebody
and he's like, "My" He says finally just

306
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,437
says, "My god, I cannot wait to get out
of here and go back to America where we

307
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,280
can [__] without condoms." [laughter]

308
00:16:58,080 --> 00:16:59,767
>> Uh was that a metaphor or Okay.

309
00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:02,877
[laughter] Exactly right. And and so no,
but it's exactly the thing and everybody

310
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,077
instantly knows what that like everybody
watching that instantly starts laughing

311
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,637
because you know what it means, which
is it's exactly this. I think there's like

312
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:09,997
an ethnographic, you know, way of it.

313
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,477
There's a bunch of books on like all
like you said the Scots-Irish like all

314
00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,637
the different derivations of all
the different ethnic groups that have come

315
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,637
to the US over the course of the last
400 years, right? But it's been and but

316
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,037
what we have is this sort
of amalgamation of like, you know, the you

317
00:17:21,120 --> 00:17:24,077
know the the Northeast, you know,
Yankees who were like super tough and

318
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,277
hardcore. Yeah. The Scots-Irish are
super aggressive. you know, we've got

319
00:17:27,360 --> 00:17:29,997
the, you know, the Southerners and the
Texans, uh, you know, and the and, you

320
00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,397
know, the sort of, you know, whole
kind of blended, you know, kind of

321
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,917
Anglo-Hispanic thing, you know, super
incredibly tough, strong, driven, you

322
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,917
know, capable characters, you know,
the Texas Rangers. Um, you know, we've got

323
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,277
the, yeah, we've got the California, you
know, we've got the, you know, the wild,

324
00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,317
we've got the incredibly, you know,
inventive hippies, but we also have the

325
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,117
hardcore engineers, we've got, you know,
the best, you know, rocket scientists in

326
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,077
the world, we've got the best, you know,
artists in the world, you know, creative

327
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,837
professionals, uh, you know, the best
movies. Um and so yeah there there there

328
00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:00,077
is you know the the the the you know
say all of our problems I think are

329
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,517
basically you know in my view to some
extent you know attempts to basically

330
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,197
sand all that off and make everything
basically boring and mediocre. But there

331
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:10,237
is something in the national spirit that
basically keeps bouncing back and it and

332
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,837
and basically what we discover over time
is we we basically just need people to

333
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,757
stand up at a certain point and say you
know it's time to you it's time to build

334
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,117
it's time to grow you know it's time
to do things. Um, and so, and there's

335
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,757
something in the American spirit that
just like right back to life. And I and

336
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,317
I've seen it before. I actually saw, you
know, I I saw it as a kid here in the in

337
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,557
the early 80s. Um, you know,
because the the the 70s were like horribly

338
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,077
depressing, right, in the in in the US.

339
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:36,477
Like it was they were a nightmare
on many fronts. And in a lot of ways, the

340
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,397
last decade to me has felt a lot like

341
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,917
the 70s, just being mired in misery. Um,

342
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,517
and just this self-defeating, you know,
negative attitude and everybody's upset

343
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,717
about everything and, you know, and then
by the way, like energy crisis and

344
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,517
hostage crisis and foreign wars and just

345
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:56,237
demoralization, right? Um, you know, the
low point for in the 70s was, you know,

346
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,957
Jimmy Carter who just passed away. He
went on TV and he gave this speech known

347
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:03,037
as the Malay speech and it was like
the weakest possible trying to like rouse

348
00:19:03,120 --> 00:19:05,197
people back to a sense of like passion.

349
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,477
completely failed and you know we had
the you know the hostages in you know

350
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,317
Iran for I think 440 days and every
night on the nightly news it was you

351
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,637
know lines around the block energy
crisis depression inflation and then you

352
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,517
know Reagan came in and you know Reagan
was a very controversial character at

353
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,397
the time and you know he came
in and he's like yep nope it's morning in

354
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,677
America and we're the shiny city on the
hill and we're going to do it and he did

355
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,877
it and we did it and the national spirit
came roaring back and you know roared

356
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,237
really hard for a full decade and I and I
think that's exactly what I think you

357
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,157
know we'll see but I think
that's what could happen here

358
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:38,317
>> and I just did a super long podcast
on Milton Freriedman with Jennifer Burns

359
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,557
who's this incredible professor
at Stanford and he was part of the Reagan.

360
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,317
So some there's a bunch of components
to that. One of which is economic.

361
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,877
>> Yes. >> And one
of which maybe you can put a

362
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,997
word on it of not to be romantic or

363
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,997
anything but freedom uh individual
freedom, economic freedom, political

364
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,277
freedom and just in general individualism.

365
00:19:59,360 --> 00:20:02,877
>> Yeah, that's right. Yeah. And as you
know this America has this incredible

366
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,557
streak of individualism. You know
individualism in America probably peaked

367
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,997
I think between roughly call it
the end of the civil war 1865 through to

368
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:14,237
probably call it 1931 or something.
Um you know and there was this like

369
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,717
incredible rush. I mean that period
you know we now know that period as the

370
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,837
second industrial revolution and it's
when the United States basically assumed

371
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,557
global leadership and basically took
took over technological and economic

372
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:26,237
leadership from from England. Um and then
you know that that led to you know

373
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,037
ultimately then therefore being able
to you know not only industrialize the

374
00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:32,717
world but also win World War II and then
win the Cold War. Um and yeah you know

375
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,557
there's a massive industrial you know
massive individualistic streak. Um by

376
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,197
the way you know Milton Fre Milton
Friedman's old videos are all on

377
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,237
YouTube. They are every bit
as compelling and inspiring. Yeah.

378
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,877
>> Um as they uh as they were then um
you know he's this he's a singular figure

379
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,637
and many of us you know have you know I
never knew him but um he was at actually

380
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,157
at Stanford for many years at the Hoover
Institution but uh I never met him but I

381
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,797
know a lot of people who worked with him
and you know that you know he was he was

382
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,717
a singular figure but his his all all
of his lessons you know live on or fully

383
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,477
available. Um, but I would also say it's
not just individualism. And this is, you

384
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,797
know, one of this is one of the big
things that's like playing out in a lot

385
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,237
of our culture and kind of political
fights right now, which is, you know,

386
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,677
basically this feeling, you know,
certainly that I have and I share with a

387
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,397
lot of people, which is it it's
not enough for America to just be an

388
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,917
economic zone. Um, and it's not enough
for us to just be individuals and it's

389
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,957
not enough to just have line go up
and it's not enough to just have economic

390
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,797
success. There are deeper questions
uh at play and and and also, you know,

391
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,717
there there there's more to a country
uh than just that. and and you know quite

392
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:32,317
quite frankly a lot of it is intangible.

393
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,397
Um a lot of it is you know involves
spirit um and passion and you know like

394
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,557
I said we we have more of it than
anybody else. Um but um you know we we

395
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,037
have to choose to want it. The way I
look at it is like all of our problems

396
00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:46,477
are self-inflicted. Like they're you
know the client is a choice. You know

397
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,917
all of our problems are basically
demoralization campaigns. You know

398
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,717
basically people telling us people
in positions of authority telling us that

399
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,317
we should you know we shouldn't you know
stand out. We shouldn't be adventurous.

400
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,517
We shouldn't be exciting. We shouldn't
be exploratory. you know, we shouldn't,

401
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,757
you know, this that and the other thing
and we should feel bad about everything

402
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,877
that we do. And I think we've lived
through a decade where that's been the

403
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,237
prevailing theme. And I I think quite
honestly, as of November, I think people

404
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,077
are done with it. >> If we
could go on a tangent of a

405
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,677
tangent, since we're talking about
individualism, and that's not all that

406
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,357
it takes. You've mentioned in the past
the book The Ancient City. Yes.

407
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:24,637
>> By if I could only pronounce the name,
French historian Numa Deni Fustel Duno.

408
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,317
I don't know. >> That was amazing.

409
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:27,837
>> Okay. All right. From the 19th century.

410
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,717
Anyway, you said this is an important
book to understand who we are and where

411
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,037
we come from. >> So,
what that book does, it's actually

412
00:22:33,120 --> 00:22:37,747
quite a striking book. Um, so that
book is written by this guy um as a

413
00:22:37,830 --> 00:22:40,317
[laughter] let let do
the pronunciations, the

414
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:41,677
foreign language pronunciations for the

415
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,997
day. Um, he was a uh professor of

416
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,677
classics um at uh the Serban in um in uh

417
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,277
Paris, you know, the top university
uh at um in the in the actually in the

418
00:22:51,360 --> 00:22:55,597
1860s. though actually right around
after the US civil war and he was a

419
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,037
soant of a particular kind which is he
and you can see this in the book is he

420
00:22:59,120 --> 00:23:02,237
had apparently read and you know sort
of absorbed and memorized every possible

421
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,557
scrap of Greek and and um Roman
literature um and so it's like a walking

422
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,277
like index on basically Greek and Roman
everything we know about Greek and Roman

423
00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:12,477
culture and that's significant the reason
this matters is because basically

424
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,517
none of that has changed right and so
he he he had access to the exact same

425
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,237
written materials that we have we have
access to and so there you know we we've

426
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,797
learned nothing and then specifically
what he did is he talked about the

427
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,677
Greeks and the Romans But specifically
what he did is he went back further. He

428
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,317
reconstructed the people who came before
the Greeks and the Romans and what their

429
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,717
life and society was like. And these
were the people who were now known as

430
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,757
the as the Indo-Europeans. And these were,
you may have heard of these, these

431
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,317
are the people who came down from the
steps. And so they they they came out of

432
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,197
what's now like Eastern Europe, like
around sort of the outskirts of what's

433
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,877
now Russia. Um and then they sort of swept
through uh Europe. They ultimately

434
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,477
took over all of Europe. By the way, you
know, almost many of the ethnicities in

435
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,077
the Americas the hundreds of years that
follow, you know, are indo-uropean. And

436
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,877
so like you know they were this
basically this warrior basically class

437
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,157
that like came down and swept through
and and um and and you know essentially

438
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,317
um you know populated much of the world.

439
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,357
Um and there's a whole interesting saga
there. But what he does and then they

440
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,557
basically they from there came basically
what we know as the Greeks and the

441
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,757
Romans were kind of evolutions off
of that. Um and so what he reconstructs is

442
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,517
sort of what life was like what life was
like at least in the west for people in

443
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,197
their kind of original social state.
And the the significance of that is is the

444
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,717
original social state is this is living
in the state of the absolute imperative

445
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,637
for survival with absolutely no
technology, right? Like no modern

446
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,837
systems, no nothing, right? You've got
the clothes in your back, you've got

447
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,717
your, you know, you you've got whatever
you can build with your bare hands,

448
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,997
right? This is, you know,
predates basically all concepts of of of

449
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,117
technologies as we understand it today.

450
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,717
And so these are people under like
maximum levels of physical survival

451
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,357
pressure. And so what what social
patterns did they evolve to be able to

452
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,437
do that? And and the social pattern
basically was as follows. um is a is a

453
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,997
three-part social structure u family um

454
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,757
uh tribe and city um and um zero concept

455
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,837
of individual rights um and essentially
no concept of individualism and so you

456
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,437
were not an individual you were
a member of your family and then a set of

457
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,637
families would aggregate into a tribe
and then a set of tribes would aggregate

458
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,837
into a um into a city um and then the

459
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,917
morality was completely it was actually
what Nichi talks Nichi talks about the

460
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,037
morality was entirely master morality
not slave morality and so in their

461
00:25:09,120 --> 00:25:13,117
morality Anything that was strong was good
and anything that was weak was bad.

462
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,637
And it's very clear why that is, right?

463
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:18,477
It's because strong equals good equals
survive. Weak equals bad equals die. And

464
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,997
that led to what became known later
as the master slave dialectic, which is is

465
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,557
it more important for you to live
on your feet as a master even at the risk

466
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,077
of dying? Or are you willing to um you
know live as a slave on your knees in

467
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,877
order to not die. And this is sort
of the the derivation of that moral

468
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,157
framework. Christianity later inverted
that moral framework. But it you know

469
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,917
the the original uh framework lasted
for you know many many thousands of years.

470
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,557
No concept of individualism. The head
of the family had total life and death

471
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:41,997
control over the over over the family.

472
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,717
The head of the tribe, same thing.
Head of the city, same thing. And then you

473
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,997
were morally obligated to kill members
of the of the other cities on on

474
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,117
contact. Right. [laughter] Right.
You were morally required to. Like if you

475
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,357
didn't do it, you were a bad person.
Um and then the form of the society was

476
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,837
basically maximum fascism combined with

477
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,557
maximum communism. Right. And so it was
maximum fascism in the form of this like

478
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,597
absolute top- down control where the head
of the family, tribe or city could

479
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,997
kill other members of the community
at any time with no repercussions at all.

480
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:14,157
So maximum hierarchy but combined
with maximum communism which is no market

481
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,357
economy and so everything gets shared,
right? And and sort of the point of

482
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,317
being in one of these collectives
is that it's a collective and and and you

483
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,357
know and and people are sharing. And of
course that limited how big they could

484
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,397
get cuz you know the problem with
communism is it doesn't scale, right? It

485
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,877
works at the level of a family. It's
much harder to make it work at the level

486
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,197
of a country. Impossible. Maximum fascism,
maximum communism. And then and

487
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:37,677
then it was all intricately uh tied into
their religion. And their their religion

488
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,997
was uh it was in two parts. It was uh
veneration of ancestors um and it was

489
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,837
veneration of nature. And the veneration
of ancestors is extremely important

490
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,037
because it was basically like basically
the ancestors were the people who got

491
00:26:49,120 --> 00:26:51,757
you to where you were. The ancestors
were the people who had everything to

492
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,477
teach you, right? And then it
was veneration of nature because of course

493
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,437
nature is the thing that's trying
to kill you. Um and then you had your

494
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,557
ancestor every family, tribe or city
had their ancestor gods and then they had

495
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,077
their um they had their nature gods.

496
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,917
Okay. So fast forward to today like we
live in a world that is like radically

497
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,797
different but in and the book takes you
through kind of what happened from that

498
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,397
through the Greeks and Romans through
to Christianity. And so that but but it's

499
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,357
very helpful to kind of think in these
terms because the conventional view of

500
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,997
the progress through time is that we are
you know the cliche is the arc of the un

501
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,357
moral universe you know bends towards
justice right or so-called wig history

502
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,477
which is you know that the arc
of progress is positive right and so we we

503
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,197
you know what you hear all the time
which you're taught in school and

504
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,837
everything is you know every year
that goes by we get better and better and

505
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,237
more and more moral and more and more
pure and a better version of of

506
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,557
ourselves our Indo-European ancestors
would say oh no like you people have

507
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,637
like fallen to [__] like you people took
took all of the principles of basically

508
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,677
your civilization and you have diluted
them down to the point where they barely

509
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,637
even matter, you know, and you're
having, you know, children out of

510
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,117
wedlock and you're, you know,
you regularly encounter people of other

511
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,237
cities and you don't try to kill them
and like how crazy is that? And and they

512
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,397
would basically consider us to be living
like an incredibly diluted version of

513
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:02,237
this sort of highly religious,
highly cult-like, right, highly organized,

514
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:06,557
highly fascist fascist communist
society. I can't resist noting

515
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,757
[laughter] that as a consequence
of basically going

516
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,997
through all the transitions we've
been through going all the way through

517
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,597
Christianity coming out the other end of
Christianity nature declares God is dead

518
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,957
we're in a secular society you know
that still has you know tinges of

519
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,397
Christianity but you know largely prides
itself on no longer being religious in

520
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,197
that way um you know we being the sort

521
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,437
of most fully evolved modern secular
you know experts scientists and so forth

522
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,837
have basically re-evolved or fallen back
on the exact same religious structure uh

523
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,837
that the Indo-Uropeans had specifically
ancestor worship which is identity

524
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:42,717
politics um and nature worship which
is environmentalism. Um and so we have

525
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,197
actually like worked our way all the way
back to their cult religions without

526
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,157
realizing it. And and and it just goes
to show that like you know in some ways

527
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,157
we have fallen far from the far from the
family tree but in in some cases we're

528
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,037
we're exactly the same.
>> You kind of described this progressive

529
00:28:55,120 --> 00:29:00,397
idea of wokeism and so
on as uh worshiping ancestors.

530
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,357
>> Identity politics is worshiping
ancestors, right? It's it's tagging

531
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,357
newborn infants with either, you know,
benefits or responsibilities or, you

532
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,477
know, levels of condemnation
based on who their ancestors were.

533
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,837
>> The Indo-Uropeans would
have recognized it on site.

534
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,157
We somehow think it's like
supercially progressive.

535
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,997
>> Yeah. And it is not. >> I mean,
I would say obviously not, you

536
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,357
know, get get new, which is where I
think you're headed, which is look, like

537
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,557
is the idea that you can like completely
reinvent society every generation and

538
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,517
have no regard whatsoever for what came
before you that that seems like a really

539
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,717
bad idea, right? That's like
the Cambodians with year zero under PP pot

540
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,237
and you know death you know follows.

541
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,397
It's obviously the Soviets tried that.

542
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,797
Um you know the the you know the the
utopian fantasists who think that they

543
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,357
can just rip up everything that came
before and create something new in the

544
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,317
human condition and human society have
a very bad history of of causing you know

545
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,757
enormous destruction. So on the one
hand it's like okay there there is like a

546
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,197
deeply important role for tradition
and and and the way I think about that is

547
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,637
it's the process of evolutionary
learning right which is what what

548
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,997
tradition ought to be is the distilled
wisdom of all and and you know this is

549
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,397
how the new Europeans thought about
it should be the distilled wisdom of

550
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,077
everybody who came before you right
all those important and powerful lessons

551
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,037
learned um and that's that's why I think
it's fascinating to go back and study

552
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,517
how these people lived is because that's
that's part of the history and you know

553
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,637
part of the learning that got us
to where we are today having said that

554
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,077
there are many cultures around the world
that are you mired in tradition to the

555
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,597
point of not being able to progress.
Um and in fact you might even say globally

556
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,717
that's the default human condition
which is you know a lot of people are in

557
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,397
societies in which you know there's like
absolute seniority by age you know kids

558
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,517
are completely you know like in the US
like for some reason we decided kids are

559
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,237
in charge of everything right and like
you know they're the trends setters and

560
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,557
they're allowed to like set all the
agendas and like set settle the politics

561
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,597
and settle the culture and maybe that's
a little bit crazy but like in a lot of

562
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,877
other cultures kids have no voice at all
no role at all because it's the old

563
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,557
people who are in charge of everything
you know they're gerontocracies and it's

564
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,917
all a bunch of 80-year-olds running
everything which by the Okay, we have a

565
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,837
little bit of that too, right? Um, and so
I what I would say is like there's a

566
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,357
down there's there's a real downside.

567
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,437
You know, full traditionalism
is communitarianism, you know, it's ethnic

568
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,037
particularism. Um, you know, it's ethnic
chauvinism. It's um, you know, this

569
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:07,277
incredible level of of resistance to
change. Um, you know, that's I mean that

570
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,917
it just doesn't get you anywhere. Like
it it may be good and fine at the level

571
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,957
of an individual tribe, but as a societ
society living in the modern world, it

572
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,917
you you can't evolve, you can't you
can't advance, you can't participate in

573
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,437
all the good things that you know that
that have happened. And so I, you know,

574
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,997
I think it probably this is one of those
things where extremistness on either

575
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,757
side is probably a bad idea. Um, and I
but you know, but but this needs to be

576
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,277
approached in a sophisticated
and nuanced way.

577
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:33,437
>> So the beautiful picture
you painted of the roaring 20s,

578
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,437
how can the Trump administration play
a part in making that future happen?

579
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,677
>> Yeah. So look, a big part of this is
getting the government boot off the neck

580
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,797
of the American economy, the American
technology industry, the American

581
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,237
people. Um, you know, and and again,
this is a replay of what happened in the

582
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,677
60s and 70s, which is, you know, for what
started out looking like, you know,

583
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,517
I'm sure good and virtuous purposes,
you know, we we ended up both then and now

584
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,917
with this, you know, what I what I
describe as sort of a form of soft

585
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,877
authoritarianism. You know,
the good news is it's not like a military

586
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,077
dictatorship. It's not like, you know,
you get thrown into Lubian, you know,

587
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,797
for the most part. It's not coming
at 4 in the morning. You're not getting

588
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,917
dragged off to a cell. So, it's not
hard authoritarianism, but it is soft

589
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,597
authoritarianism. And so it's this you
know incredible suppressive blanket of

590
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:18,397
regulation rules you know this concept
of a vetocracy right what's required to

591
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,357
get anything done you know you need
to get 40 people to sign off on anything

592
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,877
any one of them can veto it is you know
a lot of how our now political system

593
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:29,597
works um and then you know just this
general idea of you know progress is bad

594
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,357
and technology is bad and capitalism
is bad and building businesses is bad and

595
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:38,637
success is bad um you know tall poppy
syndrome you know basically anybody who

596
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,277
sticks their head up you know deserves
to get it you know chopped off. Anybody

597
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,637
who's wrong about anything deserves
to get condemned forever. You know, just

598
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:49,037
this this very kind of, you know,
grinding, you know, repression. And then

599
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,957
coupled with specific government actions

600
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,437
such as censorship regimes, right, and

601
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:58,077
debanking, right? Um, and, you know,
draconian, you know, deliberately

602
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,197
kneecapping, you know, critical American
industries. Um, and then, you know,

603
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,917
congratulating yourselves in the back
for doing it or, you know, having these

604
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,797
horrible social policies like, let's
let all the criminals out of jail and see

605
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,837
what happens, right? Um, and so like
[clears throat] we we've just been

606
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,397
through this period, you know, I call
it a demoralization campaign. Like we've

607
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,797
just been through this period where,
you know, whether it started that way or

608
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,917
not, it ended up basically being this
comprehensive message that says you're

609
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:22,157
terrible and if you try to do anything,
you're terrible and [__] you. Um, and

610
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,357
the Biden administration reached kind
of the full pinnacle of that in in in our

611
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:29,277
time. They they got really bad on on many
fronts at the same time. Um, and so

612
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:34,397
just like relieving that, um,
and getting kind of back to a reasonably,

613
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,277
you know, kind of optimistic,
constructive, um, you know, progrowth

614
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:41,197
frame of mind. Um, there's just there's
so much pent-up energy and potentially

615
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,677
in the American system that that alone
is going to, I think, cause, you know,

616
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,357
growth and and and and spirit to take off.
And then there's a lot of things

617
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,837
proactively that Yeah. And then there's
a lot of things proactively that could

618
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,717
be done. >> So, how do
you relieve that? To what

619
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,117
degree has the thing you describe

620
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,557
ideologically permeated government and

621
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,237
permeated big companies?
>> Disclaimer at first, which is I don't

622
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,037
want to predict anything on any of this
stuff because I've learned the hard way

623
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,557
that I can't predict politics
or Washington at all. Um, but I would just

624
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,997
say that the the plans and intentions
are clear and the staffing supports it.

625
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,637
Um, and all the conversations
are consistent um, with the new

626
00:34:14,720 --> 00:34:17,597
administration and that they plan to take,
you know, very rapid action on a

627
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,037
lot of these fronts very quickly.

628
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,117
They're going to do as much as they
can through executive orders and then

629
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,397
they're going to do legislation and and
regulatory changes for the rest. And so

630
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,557
they're they're going to move I think
quickly on a whole bunch of stuff. You

631
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,597
can already feel I think a shift in the
national spirit or at least let's put it

632
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,197
this way. I feel it for sure in in Silicon
Valley like it it you mean we we

633
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,677
you know we just saw a great example
of this with what you know with what Mark

634
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,637
Zuckerberg is doing. Um you know
obviously I'm I'm involved with with his

635
00:34:38,720 --> 00:34:41,437
company but you know we we just saw kind
of in public the scope of and speed of

636
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:45,037
the changes you know are reflective
of of sort of this of a lot of these

637
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,797
shifts. But I would say that that same
conversation, those same kinds of things

638
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,597
are happening throughout the industry,
right? And so the the the tech industry

639
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,637
itself, whether people were proTrump
or anti-Trump, like there's just like a

640
00:34:54,720 --> 00:34:58,557
giant vibe shift, mood shift that's like
kicked in already. And then I was with a

641
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,077
group of Hollywood people about two
weeks ago, um, and they were still, you

642
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,517
know, people who at least at least
vocally were still very anti-Trump, but

643
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,477
I said, you know, has anything changed
since since November 6, and they they

644
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,277
immediately said, oh, it's completely
different. Um, it feels like the ISIS

645
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,437
thaw um, you know, woke us over.
um you know they said that all kinds of

646
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,837
projects are going to be able to get
made now that couldn't before that you

647
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,757
know Hollywood's going to start making
comedies again you know like it it they

648
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,677
were just like it's it's like it's like
a just like an incredible immediate uh

649
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,037
environmental change and I'm as I talk
to people kind of throughout you know

650
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,677
certainly throughout the economy people
who run businesses I I hear that all the

651
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:35,757
time which is just this this last 10
years of misery is just over I mean the

652
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,317
one that I'm watching that's really
funny I mean Facebook's getting a lot

653
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,117
met is getting a lot of attention
but the other funny one is Black Rockck

654
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,757
>> which I'm not which you know and I
don't know him but I've watched for a long

655
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,277
time. And so, you know, the Larry Fink,
who's the CEO of BlackRock, was like

656
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:48,877
first in as a major, you know,

657
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,237
investment CEO on like every dumb social

658
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:56,397
trend and rule set. Like every All

659
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,797
right, I'm going for it. Every [__]
[laughter] every [__] thing you can

660
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,957
imagine. >> Yeah. >> Every ESG
and every like every possible

661
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,957
satellite companies with every aspect of
just these crazed ideological positions.

662
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,237
And you know, he was coming in, he
literally was like had aggreg aggregated

663
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:16,397
together trillions of dollars of of of
of of shareholdings that he did not that

664
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,597
were, you know, that were his his
customers rights. And he, you know,

665
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,397
seized their voting control of their
shares and was using it to force all

666
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,597
these companies to do all of this like
crazy ideological stuff. And he he was

667
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,797
like the typhoid Mary of all this stuff
in corporate America. And if and he in

668
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,517
the last year has been like backpedaling
from that stuff like as fast as he

669
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:35,037
possibly can. And I saw just an example
last week he pulled out of the whatever

670
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,717
the corporate net zero alliance you know
he pulled out of the crazy energy energy

671
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,997
energy stuff and so like you know he's
backing away as fast as he can he's

672
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,117
doing remember the Richard
Prior backwards walk

673
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,517
>> Richard Prior had this way where he
could he could back out of a room while

674
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,837
looking at like he
was walking forward [laughter]

675
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,517
um and so um you know even they're doing

676
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:57,597
that um and just the whole thing I mean
this I if you saw the court recently

677
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:01,597
ruled that NASDAQ had these crazy
board of directors composition rules

678
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,237
One of the funniest moments of my life
is when my friend Peter Teal and I were

679
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,997
on the the the meta board and these
NASDAQ rules came down mandated

680
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,357
diversity on corporate boards. Um
and so we sat around the table and had to

681
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,157
figure out, you know, which of us
counted as diverse and the um very

682
00:37:14,240 --> 00:37:18,877
professional attorneys at at Meta
explained with a 100% complete um

683
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:23,677
straight face that Peter Teal counts
as diverse uh by virtue of being LGBT.

684
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,477
>> And and this is a guy who literally
wrote a book called The Diversity Myth.

685
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,957
Yeah. >> Um and he
literally looked like he

686
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:33,837
swallowed a live goldfish.
Um and and and this was imposed I mean

687
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,637
this was like so incredibly offensive
to him that like it just like it was just

688
00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:39,357
absolutely appalling and I felt terrible
for him but the look on his face was

689
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:43,437
very funny. Um, and it was imposed
by NASDAQ, you know, your stock exchange

690
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,957
imposing this stuff on you and then
the court, whatever the court of appeals

691
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,077
just nuked that, you know, so like
the these things basically are being like

692
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,877
ripped down one by one and and and
what's on the other side of it is

693
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,757
basically, you know, finally being able
to get back to, you know, everything

694
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,157
that, you know, everybody always
wanted to do, which is like run their

695
00:37:58,240 --> 00:38:02,317
companies, have great products, have
happy customers, you know, like succeed,

696
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:05,997
like succeed, achieve, outperform, um,
and, you know, work with the best and

697
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,797
the brightest and not and not be made
to feel bad about it. And I I think that's

698
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:10,957
happening in many areas
of American society.

699
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:15,517
>> It's great to hear that Peter Teal
is fundamentally a diversity hire.

700
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,717
>> Well, so it was very, you know,
there was a moment. So So Peter, you know,

701
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,077
Peter, of course, um, you know, is is,
uh, you know, is is publicly gay, has

702
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,357
been for a long time, you know, but, you
know, there are other men on the board,

703
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,517
right? And, you know, we're sitting
there and we're all looking at it and

704
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,637
we're like, "All right, like, okay,
LGBT." And we just we keep coming back

705
00:38:30,720 --> 00:38:36,157
to the B, right? Um,
and it's like, [laughter]

706
00:38:36,240 --> 00:38:39,517
>> you know, it's like, >> all right,
>> you know, I'm willing to do a lot for

707
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:44,077
this company, but [laughter] >> it's
all about sacrifice for diversity.

708
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,797
>> Well, yeah. And then it's like,
okay, like is there a test?

709
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:52,637
>> Like, you know, [laughter] um, so,
>> oh yeah, exactly. How do you prove it?

710
00:38:52,720 --> 00:38:55,117
>> The questions that [laughter]
got asked, you know,

711
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:56,237
>> what are you willing to do?

712
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,957
>> Yeah. And I I become very good
at asking um lawyers uh completely absurd

713
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:02,797
questions with a totally straight face.

714
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,277
>> And do they answer
with a straight face?

715
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,757
>> Some sometimes. >> Okay.
>> I think in fairness they have trouble

716
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,357
telling when I'm joking.
>> So you mentioned the the Hollywood

717
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,997
folks, maybe people in Silicon Valley

718
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,237
and the vibe shift. Maybe you can speak

719
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,437
to uh preference falsification. What do

720
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,157
they actually believe? How many of them

721
00:39:22,240 --> 00:39:24,637
actually hate Trump? what like what

722
00:39:24,720 --> 00:39:27,757
percent of them are uh feeling this vibe

723
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:33,437
shift and are interested in uh creating
the roaring 20s in the way they've

724
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:37,677
described. >> So first we should maybe
talk population. So there's like all of

725
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,717
Silicon Valley um and and the way to just
measure that is just look at voting

726
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,357
records, right? And and and what that
shows consistently is Silicon Valley is

727
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,837
just a you know at least historically
my entire time there has been

728
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,757
overwhelmingly majority just straight up
Democrat. Um uh the other way to look at

729
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,877
that is political donation records. And
again, you know, the political donations

730
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:57,117
in the valley, you know, range from 90
to 99%, you know, to one side. Um and

731
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,677
so, you know, we'll we'll I just bring
up because like we'll see what happens

732
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,757
with the voting and with donations going
forward. Um I we maybe talk about the

733
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,477
fire later, but I can tell you there
is a very big question of what's happening

734
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,317
in Los Angeles right now. Um I don't
want to get into the fire, but like it's

735
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,277
catastrophic. And you know, there
was already a rightward shift in the big

736
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,877
cities in California. And I think a lot
of people in LA are really thinking

737
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,597
about things right now as they're
trying to, you know, literally save their

738
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,037
houses and save their families. Um, but,
you know, even in San Francisco, there

739
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,397
was a big, right, there's a big shift
to the right in the voting um, in um, in

740
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,877
2014. So, we'll see where we'll see
where that goes. But, you know, you

741
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,317
observe that by just looking at looking
at the numbers over time. Um, the part

742
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,437
that I'm more focused on is, you know,
and I don't know how to exactly describe

743
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:39,917
this, but it's like the top thousand
or the top 10,000 people, right? Um and um

744
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,637
you know I don't have a list but like
it's the you know it's all the top

745
00:40:42,720 --> 00:40:46,797
founders, top CEOs, top executives,
top engineers, top VCs, you know and then

746
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,837
kind of into the ranks um you know
the people who kind of built and run the

747
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,197
companies. Um and there there you know
I don't have numbers but I have a much

748
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,517
more tactile feel you know for for for

749
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,997
what's happening. Um

750
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,917
so I the big thing I I have now come to

751
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,517
believe is that the idea that people

752
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:07,917
have beliefs is mostly wrong. Um, I

753
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,997
think that most people just go along.

754
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,917
Um, and I think even most high status
people just go along. And I think maybe

755
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,197
the most high status people are the most
prone to just go along because they're

756
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:21,917
the most focused on status. Um, and the
way I would describe that is, um, you

757
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,277
know, one of the great forbidden
philosophers of our time is the uni

758
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:29,437
bomber, uh, Ted Kazinski. And amidst
his madness, he had this extremely

759
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,957
interesting articulation. you know,
he was a he was a he was an insane lunatic

760
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:37,437
murderer, but he was also, you know, at
Harvard super genius. Um, not that those

761
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:41,677
are in conflict. Um,
[laughter] but >> shots fired, man.

762
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:46,157
>> But, uh, he it was a very bright guy
and he he did this whole thing um where he

763
00:41:46,240 --> 00:41:49,677
talked about basically he he was very
right-wing and talked about leftism a

764
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,717
lot. Um, and he had this great concept
that's just stuck in my mind ever since

765
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,357
I wrote it, which is he had this
concept just called over social over

766
00:41:55,440 --> 00:42:00,157
socialization. Um and so you know most
people are socializ most people are

767
00:42:00,240 --> 00:42:03,117
socialized like most people are you know
we live in a society most people learn

768
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,877
how to be part of a society they give
some difference to the society. There's

769
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:10,477
something about modern western elites
where they're over socialized um and

770
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,757
they're just like overly oriented
towards what other people like

771
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:18,317
themselves you know think um and believe.
And you can get a real sense of

772
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,517
that if you have a little bit of an
outside perspective, which I just do I

773
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:25,517
think as a consequence of where I grew up.
Um, like even before I had the views

774
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,397
that I have today, there was always just
this weird thing where it's like, why

775
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,797
does every dinner party have the exact

776
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,437
same conversation? Why does everybody
agree on every single issue? Why is that

777
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:39,917
agreement precisely what was in the New
York Times today? Um, why are these

778
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:43,357
positions not the same as they
were 5 years ago, [laughter]

779
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:47,197
right? Uh, but why does everybody like
snap into agreement every step of the

780
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,917
way? And that was true when I came
to Silicon Valley and it's just as true

781
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,917
today, 30 years later. And so I I think
most people are just literally take I

782
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,717
think they're taking their cues from it's
some combination of the press, the

783
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:00,317
universities, the big foundations.
So, it's like basically it's like the New

784
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,477
York Times, a Harvard, the Ford
Foundation, and you know, I don't know,

785
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,997
um, you know, a few CEOs, um, and a few
public figures and, you know, maybe, you

786
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,037
know, maybe the president of your parties
in power and like whatever that

787
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:15,357
is, everybody just everybody who's sort
of good and proper and elite in good

788
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:19,117
standing and in charge of things
and a sort of correct member of, you know,

789
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,157
let's call it coastal American society,
everybody just believes those things.

790
00:43:22,240 --> 00:43:25,437
And then, you know, the two interesting
things about that is number one, there's

791
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:29,517
no divergence among the the organs
of power, right? So the Harvard and Yale

792
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,077
believe the exact same thing. The New
York Times, the Washington Post believe

793
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,157
the exact same thing. The Ford
Foundation and the Rockefeller

794
00:43:34,240 --> 00:43:35,517
Foundation believe the exact same thing.

795
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,437
Google and you know whatever, you know,

796
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,597
Microsoft believe the exact same thing.

797
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,357
Um, but those things change over time,

798
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:47,357
but there's never conflict in the moment,
right? Um, and so, you know, the

799
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,997
New York Times and the and the
Washington Post agreed on exactly

800
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,877
everything in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000,

801
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,677
2010, and 2020, despite the fact
that the specifics changed radically.

802
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,277
the the lock step was what mattered. Um,
and so I I think basically we we in the

803
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,757
Valley we're on the tail end of that and
the same way Hollywood's on the tail end

804
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,397
of that and the same way New York's
on the tail end of that the same way the

805
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,197
media is on the tail end of that. It's
it's like some sort of collective hive

806
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,477
mind thing. And I just go through that
to say like I don't think most people in

807
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,717
my orbit or you know let's say the top
10,000 people in the valley or the top

808
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,077
10,000 people in LA I don't think
they're sitting there thinking basically

809
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:23,517
I have rock I mean they probably think
they have rock beliefs but they don't

810
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,557
actually have like some inner core of rock
beliefs and then they kind of watch

811
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,117
reality change around them and try
to figure out how to keep their beliefs

812
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,757
like correct. I don't think that's what
happens. I think what happens is they

813
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:35,197
conform to the belief system around them
and and I think most of the time they're

814
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:39,277
not even aware that that they're
basically part of a herd. Is it possible

815
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:42,157
that the surface chatter of dinner

816
00:44:42,240 --> 00:44:45,357
parties underneath that there is a

817
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:49,837
turmoil of ideas and thoughts and beliefs
that's going on but you're just

818
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,077
talking to people really close to you or

819
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,717
in your own mind and the socialization

820
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:59,757
happens at the dinner parties like uh
when you go outside the inner circle of

821
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,357
one two three four people who you really
trust then you start to conform but

822
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:08,477
inside there inside the mind there
is an actual belief or a struggle

823
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:10,157
attention with the New York Times or

824
00:45:10,240 --> 00:45:13,517
with the with

825
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:17,757
uh for the listener there's a there's
a slow smile that overtook Mark Andre's

826
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:19,117
face. >> So look,
I'll just tell you what I think

827
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,797
which is at at at the dinner parties and
at the conferences. No, there's none of

828
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,957
that. Um it's what what there is is
that all of the heretical conversations h

829
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:31,037
anything that challenges the status quo
um any heretical ideas and any new idea,

830
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:35,277
you know, is a heretical idea. um any
deviation if it's either discussed a

831
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:39,357
one-on-one face to face. It's it's like
a whisper network or it's like a real

832
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,557
life social network. There's a secret
handshake which is like okay you meet

833
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:45,677
somebody and you like know each other
a little bit but like not well and like

834
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,237
you're both trying to figure out if you
can like talk to the other person openly

835
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:52,637
or whether you have to like be
fully conformist. It's a joke.

836
00:45:52,720 --> 00:45:56,237
>> Oh yeah. Humor. >> Somebody cracks
a joke, right? Somebody cracks a joke.

837
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,877
>> If the other person laughs,
the conversation is on.

838
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:03,397
>> Yeah. Yeah. If the other person doesn't
laugh, back slowly away from the scene.

839
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:07,757
[laughter] I didn't mean anything by it,
>> right? And by the way, it doesn't have

840
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:10,237
to be like a super offensive joke.
It just has to be a joke that's just up

841
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,677
against the edge of one of the to use
the Sam Bankman Freed term, one of the

842
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:18,157
shivalas, you know, it has to be up
against one of the things um of um you

843
00:46:18,240 --> 00:46:20,717
know, one of the things that you're
absolutely required to believe to be the

844
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:22,877
dinner parties. And then and then
at that point, what happens is you have a

845
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,477
peer-to-p peer network, right? You have
you have you have you have a a one to

846
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,277
one connection with somebody and then
you you have your you have your your

847
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,797
little conspiracy of of thought th
thought criminality. Um and then you

848
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,437
have your you probably been through this.
You have your network of thought

849
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,517
criminals and then they have their
network of thought criminals and then

850
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,157
you have this like delicate mating dance
as to whether you should bring the thar

851
00:46:40,240 --> 00:46:44,637
criminals together. >> Mh. >> Right.
Um >> and the dance the fundamental uh

852
00:46:44,720 --> 00:46:46,157
mechanism of the dance is humor.

853
00:46:46,240 --> 00:46:48,957
>> Yeah. It's humor like Right.
Well, of course >> memes. Yeah.

854
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,837
>> Well, for two for two reasons. Number
one. Number one, humor is a way to have

855
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,477
deniability, right? Humor is a way
to discuss serious things without without

856
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:57,757
without having deniability. Oh, I'm sorry.
It was just a joke. Right? So, so

857
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,317
that's part of it, which is one of the
reasons why comedians can get away with

858
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,797
saying things the rest of us can't is,
you know, they can always fall back on,

859
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,237
oh yeah, I was just going for the laugh.

860
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,717
>> But but the other key thing about
humor, right, is that is that laughter is

861
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,237
involuntary, right? Like you either
laugh or you don't. And and it's not

862
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,797
like a conscious decision whether you're
going to laugh. And everybody can tell

863
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:13,997
when somebody's fake laughing, right?

864
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,557
And this every professional comedian
knows this, right? The laughter is the

865
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:18,397
clue that you're on to something truthful.

866
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,597
>> Like people don't laugh at like made
up [__] stories. They they laugh cuz

867
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,637
like you're revealing something that
they either have not been allowed to

868
00:47:24,720 --> 00:47:28,157
think about or have not been allowed
to talk about, right? Or is off limits and

869
00:47:28,240 --> 00:47:31,037
all of a sudden it's like the ice breaks
and it's like, "Oh yeah, that's the

870
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,237
thing." And it's funny and like I laugh
and then and then of course this is why

871
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:36,797
of course live comedy is so powerful
is because you're all doing that at the

872
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,597
same time. So you start to have right
the safety of you know the safety of

873
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:43,117
numbers and so so the comedians have
like the all it's no no surprise to me

874
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,517
like for example Joe's been
as successful as he has because they have

875
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:48,157
they have this hack that the you know
the rest of us who are not professional

876
00:47:48,240 --> 00:47:51,117
comedians don't have but but you have
your inperson version of it. Yeah. Yeah.

877
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,517
And then you got the question of whether
the whether you can sort of join the

878
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,917
networks together and then you've
probably been to this is you know then

879
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,357
at some point there's like a different
there's like the alt dinner party uh the

880
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:01,837
darker middle dinner party and you get
six or eight people together and you

881
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,037
join the networks and those are like the
happiest mo at least in the last decade

882
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,437
those are like the happiest moments
of everybody's lives because they're just

883
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,157
like everybody's just ecstatic because
they're like I don't have to worry about

884
00:48:10,240 --> 00:48:13,197
getting yelled at and shamed >> like
for every third sentence that comes

885
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,717
out of my mouth and we can actually talk
about real things. Um so so that's the

886
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,437
live version of it and then the and then
of course the other side of it is the

887
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,797
you know the group chat the group chat
phenomenon. Um right and then this and

888
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,917
then basically the same thing played out
you know until until Elon bought X and

889
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,637
until Substack took off uh you
know which were really the two big

890
00:48:28,720 --> 00:48:32,397
breakthroughs in free speech online. The
same dynamic played out online which is

891
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,277
you had absolute conformity on the social
networks like literally enforced

892
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,837
by the social networks themselves
through censorship and and then also

893
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:41,597
through cancellation campaigns
and mobbing and shaming right and and but

894
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:45,597
then you had but but then group chats grew
up to be the equivalent of samos right

895
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:49,277
>> anybody who grew up in the Soviet
Union under you know communism no you know

896
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,997
they had the hard version of this right
it's like how do you know who you could

897
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:56,077
talk to and then how do you distribute
information and you know like you know

898
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,717
again that was the hard authoritarian
version of this and then we've been

899
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,917
living through this weird mutant you
know, soft authoritarian version, but

900
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:03,597
with, you know,
with some of the same patterns

901
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:05,277
>> and WhatsApp allows you to scale it and

902
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,837
make it more efficient to uh to build on

903
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:13,037
these uh groups of heretical
ideas bonded by humor.

904
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:15,277
>> Yeah, exactly. Well, and this is
the thing and well, this is kind of the

905
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,917
running joke about group the running
kind of thing about group chats. It's

906
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:21,037
not even a joke. It's true. It's like
it's like every group chat, if you've

907
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,397
noticed this, like every this principle
of group chats, every group chat ends up

908
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:28,317
being about memes and humor. And the goal
of the game, the game of the group

909
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:31,517
chat is to get as close to the line
of being actually objectionable.

910
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:34,157
>> Yeah. >> As you can get
without actually tripping

911
00:49:34,240 --> 00:49:37,597
it, right? And like literally every
group chat that I have been in for the

912
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,877
last decade, even if it starts some
other direction, what ends up happening

913
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,277
is it becomes that absolute comedy fest
where but it's walking. They walk right

914
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:47,677
up to the line and they're constantly
testing and every once in a while

915
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,157
somebody will trip the line and people
will freak out and it's like, "Oh, too

916
00:49:50,240 --> 00:49:52,877
soon. Okay, you know, we got to wait
till next year to talk about that." You

917
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,597
know, they they walk it back and so
it's that same thing. And yeah, and then

918
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,637
group chats as a technological phenomenon.
It was amazing to see cuz

919
00:49:58,720 --> 00:50:01,917
basically it was number one it was, you
know, obviously the rise of smartphones.

920
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,917
Then it was the rise of the of the the
new messaging services. Um then it was

921
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:09,037
the rise specifically of I would say
combination of WhatsApp and Signal. And

922
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,237
the reason for that is those were
the two the two big systems that did the

923
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:16,477
full encryption. Um so you actually had
you actually felt safe and then the real

924
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:21,037
breakthrough I think was disappearing
messages uh which hit signal probably

925
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:25,437
four or five years ago and hit WhatsApp
three or four years ago. And then the

926
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:29,997
combination of um the combination
of encryption and um uh and disappearing

927
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:31,357
messages I think really unleashed it.

928
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,597
Well, then there's the fight then
there's the fight over the the the

929
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,637
length of the disappearing messages,
>> right? And so it's like, you know, I

930
00:50:36,720 --> 00:50:40,717
often get behind on my my thing.
So I I set to 7-day, you know, disinferior

931
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:44,157
messages and my friends who, you know,
are like, "No, that's way too much risk."

932
00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:45,517
>> Yeah. >> It's got to be a day.
And then every

933
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:48,397
once in a while, somebody will set it
to five minutes before they send something

934
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:49,677
like particularly inflammatory.

935
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,597
>> Yeah. 100%. What what I mean one of
the things that bothers me about WhatsApp

936
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:58,147
the choice is between 24 hours and you
know 7 days one day or seven days

937
00:50:58,230 --> 00:51:01,837
[laughter] and I I have to have
an existential crisis about deciding

938
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,877
>> Yes. Exactly. >> whether
I can last for seven days with

939
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,757
what I'm about to say. [laughter] >> Yeah.
Exactly. Now of course what's

940
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,797
happening right now is the big thaw,
right? And so the vibe shift. So what's

941
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:14,077
happening on the other on the other side
of of the election is you know Elon on

942
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,517
Twitter two years ago and now Mark
with Facebook and Instagram and by the way

943
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,077
with the continued growth of Substack
and with other you know new platforms

944
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:24,237
that are emerging you know like I I
think it may be you know I don't know

945
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,277
that everything just shifts back into
public but like a tremendous amount of

946
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:31,117
the uh a tremendous amount of the
verboten um uh conversations you know

947
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:35,117
can now shift back into into public view.
Um, and I mean quite frankly, this

948
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:37,277
is one of those things, you know, quite
frankly, even if I was opposed to what

949
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:40,717
those what people are saying, and I'm
sure I am in some cases. Um, you know, I

950
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,357
I would argue it's still like net better
for society that those things happen in

951
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:47,837
public instead of private. Um, you know,
do do you really want like Yeah. Like

952
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:49,357
don't you want to know? >> Yeah.

953
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,797
>> Um, and and so and and then it's
just look, it's just I think clearly much

954
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,517
healthier to live in a society in which
people are not literally scared of what

955
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:59,917
they're saying. I mean to to push back
and to come back to this idea that we're

956
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:03,517
talking about I do believe that people
have beliefs and thoughts that are

957
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:05,517
heretical like a lot of people I wonder

958
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:09,757
what fraction of people have that to me

959
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:13,277
this is the preference falsification is
really interesting what is the landscape

960
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,317
of ideas that human civilization has in

961
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,077
private

962
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,957
>> as compared to what's out in public cuz

963
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,077
like that the the the dynamical system

964
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:28,077
that is the difference between those
It's fascinating like there's throughout

965
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,237
history the the fall of communism in

966
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:33,117
multiple regimes throughout Europe is

967
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,677
really interesting because everybody was

968
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:39,277
following you know the line until not

969
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,397
but you better for sure privately there

970
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,157
was a huge number of boiling

971
00:52:44,240 --> 00:52:46,797
conversations happening where like this

972
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:51,917
is this the bureaucracy of communism the
corruption of communism all of that was

973
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:55,357
really bothering people more and more
and more and more and all of a sudden

974
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:57,997
there's a trigger that allows the vibe

975
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,637
shift to happen. So to me like the the

976
00:53:00,720 --> 00:53:03,197
interesting question here is what is the

977
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:05,757
landscape of private thoughts and ideas

978
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:07,677
and conversations that are happening

979
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:11,677
under the surface of uh of of Americans

980
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:16,077
especially my question is how much
dormant energy is there for this roaring

981
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,997
20s where people are like no
more [__] let's get [__] done.

982
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,477
>> Yeah. So let's go through the we'll
go through the theory of preference

983
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:26,557
falsification just just >> by the way
amazing the books on this is fascinating.

984
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:29,277
>> Yeah. Yeah. So this is this is exactly
this is one of the all-time great books.

985
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:32,157
Incredibly it's about 20 30 year old
book but it's very it's completely

986
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:34,877
modern and current in what it
talks about as well as very deeply

987
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:39,117
historically informed. Um so it's called
private truths public lies and it's

988
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,837
written by assoc a social science

989
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,637
professor named Timmer Kuran um at I

990
00:53:44,720 --> 00:53:48,877
think Duke um and it's it's definitive
work on this and so he he has this

991
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:50,957
concept he calls preference
falsification and so preference

992
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:54,237
falsification is two things preference
falsification and you get it from the

993
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,197
title of the book private truths public
lies. So preference falsification is

994
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:02,477
when you believe something and you can't
say it or and this is very important.

995
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:06,877
You don't believe something and you must
say it, right? Um and and and and the

996
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:10,237
commonality there is in both cases
you're lying. You you you you believe

997
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,397
you believe something internally
and then and then you're lying about it in

998
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,317
public. Um and so the the thing you
know and and there's sort of two the two

999
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:19,037
classic forms of it. There's the I you
know, for example, there's the I believe

1000
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:22,637
communism is rotten but I can't say it
version of it. Um but then there's also

1001
00:54:22,720 --> 00:54:27,597
the the the famous parable of the the
real life example but um the thing that

1002
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,477
Vaslav Haval talks about in the other
good book on this topic which is the

1003
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:34,557
power of the powerless um you know who
is an anti-communist resistance fighter

1004
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,757
who ultimately became the you know the
the president chuckles after the fall of

1005
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,717
the wall but he wrote this book and he
he describes the other side of this

1006
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:45,197
which is um workers of the world unite
right and so he he describes what he

1007
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:46,957
calls the parable of the green ger which

1008
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,717
is your green ger in Prague in 1985 um

1009
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,717
And for the last 70 years it has been
or 50 years it's been absolutely mandatory

1010
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:57,517
to have a sign in the window of your
store that says workers of the world

1011
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:02,157
unite, right? Um and it's 1985. It
is like crystal clear that the world the

1012
00:55:02,240 --> 00:55:06,077
workers of the world are not going
to unite. Like [laughter] like of all the

1013
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:08,877
things that could happen in the world,
that is not going to happen. The commies

1014
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,757
have been at that for 70 years.
It is not happening. But that slogan had

1015
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:14,397
better be in your window every morning
because if it's not in your window every

1016
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:15,917
morning, you are not a good communist.

1017
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:17,997
The secret police are going to come
by and they're going to they're going to

1018
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:21,037
get you. Um, and so the first thing you
do when you get to the story is you put

1019
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,437
that slogan in the window and you make
sure that it stays in the window all day

1020
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,637
long. And but he says the thing is every
single person, the green grosser knows

1021
00:55:26,720 --> 00:55:29,197
the slogan is fake. He knows it's a lie.

1022
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:32,317
Every single person walking past
the slogan knows that it's a lie. Every

1023
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,517
single person walking past the store
knows that the green grosser is only

1024
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:39,597
putting it up there because he has to lie
in public. Um, and the green grosser

1025
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:42,797
has to go through the humiliation
of knowing that everybody knows that he's

1026
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:46,637
caving into the system and lying
in public. And so it it it turns into

1027
00:55:46,720 --> 00:55:50,877
demoralization campaign. It it it it's
it's not just ideological enforcement.

1028
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,197
In fact, it's not ideological
enforcement anymore because everybody

1029
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:56,237
knows it's fake. The authorities know
it's fake. Everybody knows it's fake.

1030
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,357
It's not that they're enforcing
the actual ideology of the world's workers

1031
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,717
of the world uniting.
It's that they are enforcing compliance,

1032
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:07,117
>> right? And compliance with the regime
and [__] you, you will comply, right? Uh

1033
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,597
and so so anyway, that that that's
the other side of that. And and of course,

1034
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:13,917
we have lived in the last decade through
a lot of both of those. Um, I think

1035
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,957
anybody listening to this could name
a series of slogans that we've all been

1036
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:20,317
forced to chant for the last decade that
everybody knows at this point are just

1037
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:22,237
like simply not true. I'll I'll let the

1038
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:23,757
audience, you know, speculate on those

1039
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:29,357
on their own group chats. Um, [laughter]
>> send Mark your memes online as well,

1040
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:32,637
please. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. But, okay.
So, anyway, so it's the two sides of that,

1041
00:56:32,720 --> 00:56:36,397
right? So, it's it's it's it's private
true public lies. Um so then what

1042
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,357
preference falsification does is it
talks about extending that from the idea

1043
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:41,997
of the individual experiencing
that to the idea of the entire society

1044
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:45,117
experiencing that right and this gets
to your percentages question which is like

1045
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,877
okay what happens in a society in which
people are forced to lie in public about

1046
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:51,357
what they truly believe. What happens
number one is that individually they're

1047
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:54,077
lying in public and that's bad. But
the other thing that happens is they no

1048
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:57,437
longer have an accurate gauge at all
or any way to estimate how many people

1049
00:56:57,520 --> 00:57:01,117
agree with them. And and and this is how
you and again this this this literally

1050
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,757
is like how you get something like like
the communist system which is like okay

1051
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:08,157
it it you you you end up in a situation
in which 80 or 90 or 99% of a society

1052
00:57:08,240 --> 00:57:10,717
can actually all be thinking
individually I really don't buy this

1053
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:14,077
anymore and if anybody would just stand
up and say it I would be willing to go

1054
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:16,077
along with it but I'm not going to be
the first one to put my head on the

1055
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:20,157
chopping block. But you have no because
of the suppression censorship you have

1056
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:24,077
no way of knowing how many other people
agree with you. And if the people if the

1057
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,877
people agree with you are 10% of the
population and you become part of a

1058
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:31,277
movement, you're going to get killed. If
90% of the people agree with you, you're

1059
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:35,117
going to win the revolution, right?
And so the question of like what the

1060
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:38,157
percentage actually is is like a really
critical question. And then and then

1061
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,037
basically in any sort of authoritarian
system, you can you can't like run a

1062
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,997
survey, right, to get an accurate result.
And so you actually can't know

1063
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,637
until you put it to the test. And then
what he describes in the book is it's

1064
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:47,757
always put to the test in the same way.

1065
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:50,877
And this is exactly what's happened for
the last two years. Like 100% of exactly

1066
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:52,237
what's happened. It's like straight out

1067
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:56,077
of this book, which is somebody Elon

1068
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:59,757
>> sticks his hand up [laughter] and says,
"The workers of the world are not going

1069
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:02,397
to unite." >> Yeah. >> Right.
Or the emperor is actually

1070
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:05,757
wearing no clothes. Right. You know that
famous parable, right? Um so one person

1071
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:08,317
stands up and does it and and literally
that person is standing there by

1072
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:11,517
themselves and everybody else
in the audience is like, "Ooh,

1073
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:13,677
>> I wonder what's going
to happen to that guy."

1074
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:16,557
>> Right? But again, nobody knows.
Elon doesn't know. The first guy doesn't

1075
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:19,277
know. Other people don't know.
Like which way is this going to go? And it

1076
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:22,077
may be that that's a minority position
and that's a way to get yourself killed.

1077
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:25,117
Or it may be that that's the majority
position and that and you are now the

1078
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:27,997
leader of a revolution. And then
basically of course what happens is okay

1079
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:31,757
the first guy does that doesn't get
killed. The second guy does well a lot

1080
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:34,557
of the time that guy does get killed
but when the guy doesn't get killed then a

1081
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:38,237
second guy pops his head up says the same
thing. All right now you've got two

1082
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:42,077
two leads to four leads to eight. Eight
leads to 16. And then as we saw with the

1083
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,117
fall of the Berlin wall this is what
happened in Russia and Eastern Europe in

1084
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:47,517
' 89. you when it when it goes it can go

1085
00:58:47,600 --> 00:58:52,157
right and then it rips and then what
happens is very very quickly if it if it

1086
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:54,397
turns out that you had a large
percentage of the population that

1087
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:57,197
actually believe the different thing it
turns out all of a sudden everybody has

1088
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:00,637
this giant epiphany that says oh I'm
actually part of the majority and at

1089
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:04,317
that point like you are on the freight
train of revolution right like it is

1090
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:08,797
rolling right now the other part of this
is the distinction between the role of

1091
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,917
the elites and the masses um and here
and here the best book is called the

1092
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:15,757
true believer which is the the Eric
Hoffer book um and so the the The nuance

1093
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:19,517
you have to put on this is the the the
elites play a giant role in this because

1094
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:23,597
the the the elites do idea formation
and communication, but the elites by

1095
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:27,037
definition are a small minority. And so
there's also this giant role played by

1096
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:29,517
the masses. And the masses are not
necessarily thinking these things

1097
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:33,437
through in the same intellectualized
formal way that the elites are, but they

1098
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:36,237
are for sure experiencing these things
in their daily lives and they for sure

1099
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:39,277
have at least very strong emotional
views on them. And so when you when you

1100
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:42,717
really get the revolution, it's when you
get the elites lined up with or or or or

1101
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:46,077
a new either the current elites change
or the new set of elites, a new set of

1102
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,957
counter elites um basically come along
and say no, there's actually a different

1103
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:51,997
better way to live and then the piece
the people basically decide to follow

1104
00:59:52,080 --> 00:59:53,597
the you know follow the counter elite.

1105
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,397
So that that that's the other dimension
to it and of course that part is also

1106
00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:59,597
happening right now. Um, and again, case
study number one of that would be Elon

1107
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:03,037
and his, you know, it turns out,
you know, truly massive following.

1108
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:06,157
>> And he has done that over and over
in different industries, not just saying

1109
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:08,557
crazy [__] online, but saying crazy [__]

1110
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:11,357
in the in the realm of space, in the

1111
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:15,597
realm of autonomous driving, in the realm
of AI, just over and over and over

1112
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:19,197
again. Turns out saying crazy [__]
is one of the ways to do a revolution and

1113
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:21,517
to actually make progress. >> Yeah.
And it's like, well, but then

1114
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:23,517
there's the test.
Is it crazy [__] or is it the truth?

1115
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:25,757
>> Yeah. >> Right.
and and and you know and this is

1116
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,957
where you know many there are many
specific things about Elon's genius but

1117
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:32,157
one of the one of the really core ones
is an absolute dedication to the truth

1118
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:35,037
um and so when Elon says something it
sounds like crazy [__] but in his mind

1119
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:39,357
it's true now is he always right no
sometimes the rockets crash like you

1120
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:42,637
know sometimes he's wrong or he's human
he's like anybody else he's not right

1121
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:46,157
all the time but at least my my throughine
with him both in what he says

1122
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,717
in public and what he says in private
which by the way are the exact same

1123
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:52,077
things he he does not do this he doesn't
lie in public about what he believes in

1124
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:54,957
private or at least he doesn't do that
anymore like he's he's 100%% consistent

1125
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:58,797
in my in my experience. By the way,
there's two guys who are 100% consistent

1126
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:03,117
like that that I know.
Um Elen and Trump. [laughter] >> Yeah.

1127
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:04,557
>> Whatever you think of them.

1128
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,437
>> Yeah. >> What they say in private is
100% identical to what they say in public.

1129
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:08,637
Like they are completely transparent.

1130
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:11,837
They're completely honest in that way,
right? Which is like, and again, it's

1131
01:01:11,920 --> 01:01:14,397
not like they're perfect people,
but they're honest in that way. And and it

1132
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:17,757
makes them potentially both as they
have been very powerful leaders of these

1133
01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:20,957
movements because they're both willing
to stand up and say the thing that if

1134
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:24,157
it's true, it turns out to be the thing
in many cases that, you know, many or

1135
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:26,877
most or almost everyone else actually
believes, but nobody was actually

1136
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:30,317
willing to say out loud. And so they can
actually catalyze these shifts. And I I

1137
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:32,957
mean I think this framework is exactly
why Trump took over the Republican party

1138
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:35,277
as I think Trump stood up there
on stage with all these other kind of

1139
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:37,917
conventional Republicans and he started
saying things out loud that it turned

1140
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,197
out the base really was they were either
already believing or they were prone to

1141
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,557
believe. Um and he was the only one
who was saying them. And so the ma again

1142
01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,917
elite masses. He was elite. The voters
of the ma masses and the the voters

1143
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:52,317
decided you know no more bushes like
we're going this other direction. That's

1144
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:54,957
the mechanism of social change.
Like what we just described is like the

1145
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:58,477
actual mechanism of social change.
It is fascinating to me that we have been

1146
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:01,677
living through exactly this. We've been
living through exa everything exactly

1147
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:05,997
what team describes everything that
Vasav Havl described. We've been you

1148
01:02:06,080 --> 01:02:10,477
know black squares on Instagram like
the whole thing right all of it. Um uh and

1149
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:13,677
we've been living through the um you
know the the true believer elites masses

1150
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:16,717
you know thing with you know with a set
of like basically incredibly corrupt

1151
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:19,037
elites wondering why they don't have the
loyalty to the masses anymore and a set

1152
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:22,477
of new elites that are running away with
things and so like we're living through

1153
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:25,997
this like incredible applied case
study um of these ideas and you know if

1154
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:29,837
there's a moral of the story it is you
know I think fairly obvious which is it

1155
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:33,037
is a really bad idea for a society
to wedge itself into a position in which

1156
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:35,677
most people don't believe
the fundamental precepts of what they're

1157
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:38,397
told they have to do you know to be
to be good people like that that is just

1158
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:42,157
not not a good state be in.
>> So one of the ways to avoid that in the

1159
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:45,917
future maybe is to keep the delta
between what's said in private and

1160
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:48,957
what's said in public small. >> Yeah.
It's like well this is sort of the

1161
01:02:49,040 --> 01:02:51,677
the siren song of censorship is we can
keep people from saying things which

1162
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:53,757
means we can keep keep
people from thinking things.

1163
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:59,117
>> Yeah. And you know by the way that may
work for a while right like you know I

1164
01:02:59,200 --> 01:03:02,877
mean again the hard form of the Soviet
Union Soviet Union owning a mimograph

1165
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,917
prehoccopers there were mimograph
machines that were used to make satan

1166
01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:08,877
underground newspapers which is the the
mechanism of comm written communication

1167
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:11,757
of of radical ideas heretical ideas um

1168
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:16,717
ownership of a meograph machine
was punishable by death um right so that's

1169
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:20,397
the hard version right you know the soft
version is somebody clicks a button in

1170
01:03:20,480 --> 01:03:24,717
Washington and you are erased from the
internet right like which you know good

1171
01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:27,437
news you're still alive bad news is you
know shame about not being able to get a

1172
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:30,877
job you know too bad your family now you
know hates you and won't talk to you but

1173
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:33,357
you know what or whatever the you know
whatever the version of cancellation has

1174
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,717
been um and so so so like does that work

1175
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:40,397
like maybe it works for a while like it
worked for the Soviet Union for a while

1176
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:43,117
you know in its way especially when it
was coupled with you know official state

1177
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:47,517
power but when it unwinds it can unwind
with like incredible speed and ferocity

1178
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:50,797
because to your point there's all this
bottled up energy now your question was

1179
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:55,277
like what are the percentages like what
what's the breakdown down. And so my my

1180
01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:57,117
rough guess just based on what I've seen

1181
01:03:57,200 --> 01:04:00,637
in my world is it's something like 20 60

1182
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:04,717
um it's like you've got 20% like true
believers in whatever is you know the

1183
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:08,237
current thing you know you got 20%
of people who are just like true believers

1184
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:10,717
of whatever they they're you know
whatever's the like I said whatever's

1185
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:13,917
the New York Times Harvard professors
and the Ford Foundation like just they

1186
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:16,717
just believe and by the way maybe
it's 10 maybe it's five but let's say

1187
01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:19,197
generously it's it's 20 so so you know

1188
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:24,157
20% kind of full-on revolutionaries um
Um, and then you've got, let's call it

1189
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:26,957
20% on the other side that are like,
"No, I'm not on board with this. This is

1190
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:30,237
this is crazy. I'm not I'm not signing
up for this." But, you know, you know,

1191
01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:32,957
they their view of themselves is they're
in a small minority. And in fact, they

1192
01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:35,997
start out in a small minority because
what happens is the 60% go with the

1193
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:40,317
first 20%, not the second 20%. So,
you've got this large middle of people.

1194
01:04:40,400 --> 01:04:42,877
And it's not that there's anything like
it's not that people in the middle are

1195
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:46,317
not smart or anything like that.
it's that they just have like normal lives

1196
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:48,717
and they're just trying to get by and
they're just trying to go to work each

1197
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:52,317
day and do a good job and be a good
person and raise their kids and, you

1198
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:55,757
know, have a little bit of time to watch
the game. Um, and they're just not

1199
01:04:55,840 --> 01:04:59,517
engaged in the cut and thrust of, you
know, political activism or any of this

1200
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:03,517
stuff is just not their thing. But then,
but that's where the over socialization

1201
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:07,437
comes in. It's just like, okay,
by default, the 60% will go along with the

1202
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:09,197
20% of the radical revolutionaries, at

1203
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:11,837
least for a while. And then the counter

1204
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:14,477
elite is in this other 20%. And over

1205
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:19,997
time they build up a theory and network
and ability to resist um and a new set

1206
01:05:20,080 --> 01:05:23,357
of representatives and a new set of ideas.
And then at some point there's a

1207
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:26,797
contest and then and then and then and
then right and then the question is what

1208
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:29,917
happens in the middle? What happens
in the 60%? And and it and it's kind of my

1209
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:33,597
point. It's not even really does the 60%
change their beliefs as much as it's

1210
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:35,197
like okay what what is the thing that

1211
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:37,757
that 60% now decides to basically fall

1212
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:42,477
into step with. And I think that 60
in the valley that 60% for the last decade

1213
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:44,557
decided to be woke. Um and you know

1214
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:47,357
extremely I would say

1215
01:05:47,440 --> 01:05:52,397
on edge on a lot of things and I you
know that 60% is pivoting in real time.

1216
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,437
They're they're just done.
They're they've just had it

1217
01:05:55,520 --> 01:05:57,437
>> and I would love
to see where that pivot

1218
01:05:57,520 --> 01:06:00,637
goes because there's internal
battles happening right now. Right.

1219
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:03,117
>> So this is the other thing. Okay.
So there's two two forms of internal

1220
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:06,237
there's two forms of things and team
has actually talked about this. Professor

1221
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:09,277
Kron has talked about this. So, so one
is he said he said this is the kind of

1222
01:06:09,360 --> 01:06:11,517
unwind where what you're going to have
is you're now going to have people in

1223
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:13,117
the other direction. You're going
to have people who claim that they

1224
01:06:13,200 --> 01:06:17,117
supported Trump all along who
actually didn't. [laughter] >> Right.

1225
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:19,037
>> Right. >> So, it's going
to swing the other way.

1226
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:21,517
And by the way, Trump's not the only
part of this, but you know, he's just a

1227
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:24,157
convenient shortorthhand for, you know,
for a lot of this. Um, but you know,

1228
01:06:24,240 --> 01:06:26,397
whatever it is, you'll you'll have
people who will say, "Well, I never

1229
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:29,517
supported DEI, right? Or I never
supported ESG or I never thought we

1230
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,477
should have canceled that person, right?"
Where of course they were fullon

1231
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:35,757
a part of the mob like you know, kind of
at that moment. And so anyway, so you'll

1232
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:38,797
have preference falsification happening
in the other direction. And in his

1233
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:42,077
prediction, I think basically is you'll
end up with the same quote problem on

1234
01:06:42,160 --> 01:06:46,157
the on the other side. Now, will that
happen here? I don't know. You know, how

1235
01:06:46,240 --> 01:06:49,037
far is American society willing to go
any of these things? I don't know. But

1236
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:50,957
like there is some some question there.

1237
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:54,877
Um and then and then the other part of it
is okay, now you have this, you know,

1238
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:58,797
elite that is used to being in power
for the last decade. And and by the way,

1239
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:01,197
many of those people are still in power
and they're in very, you know, important

1240
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:03,517
positions. and the New York Times
is still the New York Times and Harvard is

1241
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:07,117
still Harvard and like those people
haven't changed like at all, right? Um

1242
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:09,997
and they, you know, they bureaucrats
in the government and you know, senior

1243
01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:13,517
Democratic, you know, politicians and so
forth and and they're sitting there, you

1244
01:07:13,600 --> 01:07:16,397
know, right now feeling like reality
has just smacked them hard in the face

1245
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:20,957
because they lost the election so badly,
but they're now going into a and

1246
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:24,157
specifically the Democratic party
is going into a civil war, right? and and

1247
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:27,277
and and and that form of the civil
war is completely predictable and it's

1248
01:07:27,360 --> 01:07:30,717
exactly what's happening which is half
of them are saying we need to go back to

1249
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:34,477
the center. We need to dradicalize
because we've lost the people. We've

1250
01:07:34,560 --> 01:07:37,117
lost that the people in the middle
and so we need to go back to the middle in

1251
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:40,957
order to be able to get 50% plus one
in an election. Right? And then the other

1252
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:43,277
half of them are saying no, we weren't
true to our principles. We were too

1253
01:07:43,360 --> 01:07:46,077
weak. We were too soft. You know,
we must become more revolutionary. We must

1254
01:07:46,160 --> 01:07:48,477
double down and we must, you know,
celebrate, you know, murders in the

1255
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:50,237
street of health insurance executives.

1256
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:53,597
And that's and that that right now is like
a real fight. If I could tell you a

1257
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:57,917
little personal story that breaks
my heart a little bit. There's a there's a

1258
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:00,397
professor historian I won't say who who

1259
01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:02,637
I admire deeply love his work. He's a

1260
01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:06,717
kind of a heretical thinker and we were

1261
01:08:06,800 --> 01:08:08,957
talking about having a podcast or doing

1262
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:12,717
a podcast and he eventually said that

1263
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:14,637
you know what at this time given your

1264
01:08:14,720 --> 01:08:16,557
guest list

1265
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:20,237
I just don't want the headache of

1266
01:08:20,320 --> 01:08:22,877
being in the faculty meetings in my

1267
01:08:22,960 --> 01:08:25,757
particular institution and I asked who

1268
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:27,917
are the particular figures in this guest

1269
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:32,397
list. He said Trump and the second one

1270
01:08:32,480 --> 01:08:34,477
he said that you announced your interest

1271
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:37,997
to talk to Vladimir Putin. So I just

1272
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:41,997
don't want the headache.
Now I I fully believe he

1273
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:43,597
uh it would surprise a lot of people if

1274
01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:46,317
I said who it is. But you know this is a

1275
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:49,357
person who's not bothered by the uh the

1276
01:08:49,440 --> 01:08:51,357
guest list. And I should also say that

1277
01:08:51,440 --> 01:08:54,957
80 plus% of the guest list is leftwing.

1278
01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:59,197
Okay. Uh, nevertheless,
he just doesn't want the

1279
01:08:59,280 --> 01:09:03,037
headache. And that speaks to the the thing
that you've kind of mentioned that

1280
01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:04,637
you just don't don't want the headache.

1281
01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:08,957
You just want to just have a pleasant
morning with some coffee and talk to

1282
01:09:09,040 --> 01:09:12,397
your fellow professors. And I think
a lot of people are feeling that in

1283
01:09:12,480 --> 01:09:14,157
universities and in other contexts in

1284
01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:17,837
tech companies. And I wonder if that

1285
01:09:17,920 --> 01:09:20,637
shifts, how quickly that shifts. And

1286
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:22,877
there the percentages you mentioned 20

1287
01:09:22,960 --> 01:09:26,317
60 matters. and the and the the contents

1288
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:30,317
of the private groups matters and the
dynamics of how that shifts matters

1289
01:09:30,400 --> 01:09:34,397
because it's very possible nothing
really changes in universities and in

1290
01:09:34,480 --> 01:09:36,637
major tech companies. We're just there's

1291
01:09:36,720 --> 01:09:39,837
a kind of um excitement right now for

1292
01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:44,157
potential revolution
and these new ideas, this new

1293
01:09:44,240 --> 01:09:46,477
vibes to reverberate through these

1294
01:09:46,560 --> 01:09:47,677
companies, universities, but it's

1295
01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:51,677
possible the the the wall will hold.

1296
01:09:51,760 --> 01:09:55,117
>> Yeah. So, he's a friend of yours.
I respect that you don't want to name him.

1297
01:09:55,200 --> 01:09:57,597
I also respect you don't want to beat
on him. So, I would like to beat on him on

1298
01:09:57,680 --> 01:10:00,797
your behalf. >> Um, does he have tenure?

1299
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:04,397
>> Yes. >> He should use it.

1300
01:10:04,480 --> 01:10:08,877
>> So, this is the thing, right?
This is the ultimate indictment of the

1301
01:10:08,960 --> 01:10:11,837
corruption and the rot at the heart
of our education system, uh, at the heart

1302
01:10:11,920 --> 01:10:14,317
of these universities. And it's, by the
way, it's like across the board. It's

1303
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:16,397
like all the all the top universities.

1304
01:10:16,480 --> 01:10:20,077
It's like because the the siren song
for right what it's been for 70 years

1305
01:10:20,160 --> 01:10:23,357
whatever the tenure system peer
reviewview system tenure system um which

1306
01:10:23,440 --> 01:10:27,117
is like yeah you work your butt off
as an academic to get a professorship and

1307
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:29,837
then to get tenure because then you can

1308
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:35,037
say what you actually think right then
you can do your work and your research

1309
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:36,637
and your speaking and your teaching

1310
01:10:36,720 --> 01:10:39,917
without fear of being fired right

1311
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,957
without fear of being canceled. um like

1312
01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:45,517
academic freedom. I mean, think of the

1313
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:47,597
term academic freedom and then think of

1314
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:50,157
what these people have done to it. Like

1315
01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:54,637
it's gone. Like that entire thing was

1316
01:10:54,720 --> 01:10:58,157
fake and is completely rotten. And these

1317
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:03,917
people are completely completely
giving up the entire moral

1318
01:11:04,000 --> 01:11:04,957
foundation of the system that's been

1319
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:06,877
built for them, which by the way is paid

1320
01:11:06,960 --> 01:11:11,837
for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.

1321
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:16,077
What's the what's the inkling of hope
in this? Like what this particular person

1322
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:20,957
and others who hear this what can give
them strength, inspiration and courage.

1323
01:11:21,040 --> 01:11:23,997
>> Um that the population at large is
going to realize the corruption in their

1324
01:11:24,080 --> 01:11:26,637
industry and it's going
to withdraw the funding.

1325
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:30,077
>> It's okay. So desperation. [laughter]
>> No, no, no, no, no. Think about what

1326
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:32,797
happens next. Okay. So let's go let's go
through it. So the the the universities

1327
01:11:32,880 --> 01:11:35,837
the univers the universities are funded
by four primary sources of federal

1328
01:11:35,920 --> 01:11:38,717
funding. the the big one is the federal
student loan program which is you know

1329
01:11:38,800 --> 01:11:41,597
in the many trillions of dollars at this
point and and only spiraling you know

1330
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:45,197
way faster than than inflation. Um
that's number one. Number two is federal

1331
01:11:45,280 --> 01:11:49,677
research funding which is also very
large and you probably know that um um

1332
01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:53,037
when a scientist at the university gets
a research grant the university ras as

1333
01:11:53,120 --> 01:11:56,717
much as 70% of the money
uh for central uses.

1334
01:11:56,800 --> 01:11:59,197
>> Yeah. >> Uh number three
is tax exemption at the

1335
01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:01,997
operating level which is based
on the idea that these are nonprofit

1336
01:12:02,080 --> 01:12:05,597
institutions as opposed to let's
say political institutions.

1337
01:12:05,680 --> 01:12:09,677
Um and then number four is tax
exemptions at the endowment level. Um

1338
01:12:09,760 --> 01:12:14,797
you know which is the financial buffer
that these places have. Um hypothet

1339
01:12:14,880 --> 01:12:17,757
anybody who's been close to a university
budget will basically see that what

1340
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:20,717
would happen if you withdrew those
sources of federal taxpayer money and

1341
01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:21,997
then for the state schools the state

1342
01:12:22,080 --> 01:12:24,237
money they they instantly go bankrupt

1343
01:12:24,320 --> 01:12:29,037
and then you could rebuild.
Then you could rebuild because the

1344
01:12:29,120 --> 01:12:31,277
problem right now, you know, like
the folks at University of Austin are like

1345
01:12:31,360 --> 01:12:33,677
mounting a very valiant effort and I
hope that they succeed and I'm I'm

1346
01:12:33,760 --> 01:12:37,117
cheering for them. The problem is you're
you're now inserting you suppose suppose

1347
01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:39,917
you and I want to start a new university
and we want to hire all the freethinking

1348
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:43,037
professors and we want to have the place
that fixes all this practically speaking

1349
01:12:43,120 --> 01:12:46,637
we can't do it because we can't get
access to that money even the most

1350
01:12:46,720 --> 01:12:49,357
direct reason we can't get access
to that money uh we can't get access to

1351
01:12:49,440 --> 01:12:53,277
federal student funding do you know how
universities are accredited uh for the

1352
01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:57,517
purpose of getting access to federal
student funding federal student loans

1353
01:12:57,600 --> 01:13:01,197
they're accredited by the government
but not directly indirectly they're not

1354
01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:03,917
accredited by the department
of education instead what happens is the

1355
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:07,437
Department of Education accredits
accreditation bureaus that are

1356
01:13:07,520 --> 01:13:09,437
nonprofits that do the accreditation.

1357
01:13:09,520 --> 01:13:13,277
Guess what the composition of the
accreditation bureaus is? The existing

1358
01:13:13,360 --> 01:13:16,797
universities. They are
in complete control. The

1359
01:13:16,880 --> 01:13:20,637
incumbents are in complete control
as to who gets um as to who gets access to

1360
01:13:20,720 --> 01:13:23,277
federal student loan money. Guess how
enthusiastic they are about accrediting

1361
01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:26,237
a new university.

1362
01:13:26,320 --> 01:13:30,957
Right? And so we have a government-f
funed and supported cartel um that has

1363
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:34,397
gone I mean it's just obvious now it's
just gone like sideways in basically any

1364
01:13:34,480 --> 01:13:37,037
possible way it could go sideways
including I mean literally as you know

1365
01:13:37,120 --> 01:13:39,677
students getting beaten up in the on
campus for being you know of the wrong

1366
01:13:39,760 --> 01:13:43,197
religion. I just they're just wrong in
every possible way at this point. Um and

1367
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:47,357
and they're it's all in the federal
taxpayer back. Um and there is no way I

1368
01:13:47,440 --> 01:13:50,557
mean I my opinion there is no way to fix
these things without without replacing

1369
01:13:50,640 --> 01:13:53,917
them. Um and and there's no way
to replace them without letting them fail.

1370
01:13:54,000 --> 01:13:57,277
And by the way, it's like everything
else in life. I mean, in a sense, this

1371
01:13:57,360 --> 01:14:00,557
is like the most obvious conclusion
of all time, which is what happens in in

1372
01:14:00,640 --> 01:14:04,077
the business world when a company does
a bad job is they go bankrupt and another

1373
01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:05,437
another company takes its place, right?

1374
01:14:05,520 --> 01:14:06,797
And that that's how you get progress.

1375
01:14:06,880 --> 01:14:10,157
Um, and of course below that is what
happens is this is the process of

1376
01:14:10,240 --> 01:14:12,797
evolution, right? Why why does anything
ever get better? Because things are

1377
01:14:12,880 --> 01:14:15,357
tested and tried and then you you know
the things that the things that are good

1378
01:14:15,440 --> 01:14:18,797
survive. And so these places have cut
themselves off. they've been allowed to

1379
01:14:18,880 --> 01:14:22,317
cut themselves off from both from
evolution at the institutional level and

1380
01:14:22,400 --> 01:14:24,397
evolution at the individual level as

1381
01:14:24,480 --> 01:14:29,357
shown by the the the the just widespread
abuse of tenure. Um and so we we've just

1382
01:14:29,440 --> 01:14:32,797
stalled out. We we built it we built
an oified system an oified centralized

1383
01:14:32,880 --> 01:14:36,157
corrupt system.
We're surprised by the results.

1384
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:38,237
They are not fixable
in their current form.

1385
01:14:38,320 --> 01:14:42,397
>> I disagree with you on that.
I have maybe it's grounded in hope that I

1386
01:14:42,480 --> 01:14:46,157
believe you can revolutionize a system
from within because I do believe

1387
01:14:46,240 --> 01:14:48,397
Stanford and MIT are important.

1388
01:14:48,480 --> 01:14:52,557
>> Oh, but that logic doesn't follow
at all. That's underpants gnome logic.

1389
01:14:52,640 --> 01:14:54,637
>> Underpants no gnome.
Can you explain what that means?

1390
01:14:54,720 --> 01:14:57,597
>> Underpants nose logic. So, I just
started watching a key touchstone of

1391
01:14:57,680 --> 01:15:00,797
American culture with my nine-year-old,
which of course is South Park.

1392
01:15:00,880 --> 01:15:02,317
>> Yes. >> And there is >> Wow.

1393
01:15:02,400 --> 01:15:05,117
>> And there is a which by the way is
a little aggressive for a nine-year-old.

1394
01:15:05,200 --> 01:15:07,757
>> Very aggressive,
>> but but he likes it. So, [laughter]

1395
01:15:07,840 --> 01:15:11,517
he's learning all kinds of new words >>
and all kinds of new ideas. But yeah, go.

1396
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:13,757
>> I told I told him I said, "You're going
to hear words on here that you are not

1397
01:15:13,840 --> 01:15:17,437
allowed to use." >> Right. >> Yes.
And I said, "Do you know how we

1398
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:18,717
have an agreement that we never lie to

1399
01:15:18,800 --> 01:15:21,997
mommy?" [laughter]

1400
01:15:22,080 --> 01:15:26,957
>> I said, "Not using a word that you
learn in here >> does not count as lying."

1401
01:15:27,040 --> 01:15:29,357
>> Mhm. >> Wow.
>> Keep and keep that in mind.

1402
01:15:29,440 --> 01:15:32,717
>> Orwellian red redefinition of lying.
But yes, go ahead. Of course, in the very

1403
01:15:32,800 --> 01:15:35,357
opening episode, in the first in the
first 30 seconds, one of the one of the

1404
01:15:35,440 --> 01:15:37,197
kids calls the other kid a dildo, right?

1405
01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:39,357
We're off to the races. >> Yep.

1406
01:15:39,440 --> 01:15:44,077
>> Daddy, what's a dildo?
>> Um, >> yep. [laughter]

1407
01:15:44,160 --> 01:15:46,237
>> You know, sorry.
Sorry, son. I don't know.

1408
01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:51,677
>> Yeah. >> Um, so, um,
uh, so famous episode of

1409
01:15:51,760 --> 01:15:54,397
South Park, the underpants gnomes. And so
the the underpants gnome. So there's

1410
01:15:54,480 --> 01:15:57,197
there's there's this rat. All the kids
basically realize that their underpants

1411
01:15:57,280 --> 01:16:00,157
are going missing from their dresser
drawers. Somebody's stealing the

1412
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:02,717
underpants. And it's just like, well,
who on earth would steal the underp the

1413
01:16:02,800 --> 01:16:05,357
underpants? And it turns out
it's the underpants gnomes.

1414
01:16:05,440 --> 01:16:07,837
>> And it turns out the underpants gnomes
have come to town and they've got this

1415
01:16:07,920 --> 01:16:10,157
little underground warrant of tunnels
and storage places for all the

1416
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:13,037
underpants. And so they go out at night,
they steal the underpants. And the kids

1417
01:16:13,120 --> 01:16:15,437
discover that, you know, the underpants
gnomes and they're, you know, what what

1418
01:16:15,520 --> 01:16:18,157
are you doing? Like what what's what's
the point of this? And so the underpants

1419
01:16:18,240 --> 01:16:21,757
gnomes present their their master plan,
which is a three-part plan, which is

1420
01:16:21,840 --> 01:16:25,677
step one, uh, collect underpants.
Step three, profit.

1421
01:16:25,760 --> 01:16:29,357
>> Yeah. >> Step two, question mark.

1422
01:16:29,440 --> 01:16:32,557
>> Yeah. So you just you just
proposed the underpants gnome.

1423
01:16:32,640 --> 01:16:34,317
>> Yeah. >> Which is very
common in politics. So so

1424
01:16:34,400 --> 01:16:37,117
the form of this in politics
is we must do something.

1425
01:16:37,200 --> 01:16:41,757
>> Yeah. >> This is something
therefore we must do this.

1426
01:16:41,840 --> 01:16:44,717
>> But there's no causal logic chain
in there at all to expect that that's

1427
01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,597
actually going to succeed >> because
there's no reason to believe that it is.

1428
01:16:47,680 --> 01:16:51,277
>> Yeah. It's the same thing. But this
is what I hear all the time. And I'll I

1429
01:16:51,360 --> 01:16:53,997
will let you talk as the host
of the show in a moment. But [laughter]

1430
01:16:54,080 --> 01:16:56,557
>> u but the but I hear this all the time.

1431
01:16:56,640 --> 01:16:59,357
I hear this I have friends who are on
these boards, right? um very involved in

1432
01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:01,597
these places and I hear this all
the time which is like oh these are very

1433
01:17:01,680 --> 01:17:04,477
important we must fix them and so

1434
01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:09,757
therefore they are fixable >>
there's no logic chain there at all if

1435
01:17:09,840 --> 01:17:14,157
there's that pressure that you described
in terms of cutting funding then you

1436
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:16,477
have the leverage to fire a lot of the

1437
01:17:16,560 --> 01:17:18,477
administration and have new leadership

1438
01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:23,037
that steps up that that uh aligns with

1439
01:17:23,120 --> 01:17:27,357
this vision that things really need
to change at the heads of the universities

1440
01:17:27,440 --> 01:17:29,917
and They put students and faculty

1441
01:17:30,000 --> 01:17:32,397
primary fire a lot of the administration

1442
01:17:32,480 --> 01:17:35,837
and realign and reinvigorate this idea

1443
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:37,917
of freedom of thought and intellectual

1444
01:17:38,000 --> 01:17:40,637
freedom. I mean I don't because there is

1445
01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:45,197
already a framework of of great
institutions that's there and the way

1446
01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:48,957
they talk about what it means to be
a great institution is aligned with this

1447
01:17:49,040 --> 01:17:51,277
very idea that you're talking about.

1448
01:17:51,360 --> 01:17:53,357
It's this meaning like intellectual

1449
01:17:53,440 --> 01:17:59,437
freedom the idea of tenure right the on
the surface it's aligned underneath it's

1450
01:17:59,520 --> 01:18:01,677
become corrupted >> if we
say free speech and academic

1451
01:18:01,760 --> 01:18:04,637
freedom often enough sooner or later
these tenured professors will get brave

1452
01:18:04,720 --> 01:18:06,237
>> well do you think that universities are

1453
01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:08,637
fundamentally broken okay so how do you

1454
01:18:08,720 --> 01:18:11,677
fix it how do you have institutions for

1455
01:18:11,760 --> 01:18:14,157
educating 20-year-olds

1456
01:18:14,240 --> 01:18:17,677
and institutions that host

1457
01:18:17,760 --> 01:18:20,237
uh researchers that have the freedom to

1458
01:18:20,320 --> 01:18:25,517
do epic [__] like research type
[__] that's outside the scopes of R&D

1459
01:18:25,600 --> 01:18:28,797
departments and inside companies. So, how
do you create an institution like that?

1460
01:18:28,880 --> 01:18:32,077
>> How do you create a good restaurant
when the one down the street sucks,

1461
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:34,157
>> right? You uh invent something new.

1462
01:18:34,240 --> 01:18:37,117
>> You open a new restaurant. >> Yeah.

1463
01:18:37,200 --> 01:18:39,917
>> Like, how often in your life have
you experienced a restaurant that's just

1464
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:42,797
absolutely horrible and it's poisoning
all of its customers and the food tastes

1465
01:18:42,880 --> 01:18:46,317
terrible and then three years later
you go back and it's fantastic.

1466
01:18:46,400 --> 01:18:48,637
>> Charlie Mer actually had the great
the best comment on this. Great investor,

1467
01:18:48,720 --> 01:18:51,437
Charlie Mer, the great comment he always
once asked. He's like, you know, he's,

1468
01:18:51,520 --> 01:18:54,157
you know, General Electric was going
through all these challenges and he was

1469
01:18:54,240 --> 01:18:56,557
asked at a Q&A. He said, "How would you
fix the culture of General Electric?"

1470
01:18:56,640 --> 01:18:59,037
And he said, "Fix the culture of General
Electric?" He said, "I couldn't even fix

1471
01:18:59,120 --> 01:19:02,717
the culture at a restaurant.
[laughter and gasps]

1472
01:19:02,800 --> 01:19:05,517
Like, it's insane. Like,
obviously you can't do it."

1473
01:19:05,600 --> 01:19:08,717
>> Nobody in business
thinks you can do that. Like,

1474
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:12,477
it's impossible. Like, it's not. It's
Now, now look, having said all that, I

1475
01:19:12,560 --> 01:19:14,797
should also express this because I
have a lot of friends who work at these

1476
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:18,237
places and and um and are involved
in various attempts to fix these. I hope

1477
01:19:18,320 --> 01:19:21,837
that I'm wrong. I would love to be wrong.
I would love for the I would love

1478
01:19:21,920 --> 01:19:25,037
for the underpants gnome step two to be
something clear and straightforward

1479
01:19:25,120 --> 01:19:27,597
>> that they can figure out how to do.
I would love to love to fix it. I'd love

1480
01:19:27,680 --> 01:19:30,397
to see them come back to their spoken
principles. I I think that'd be great.

1481
01:19:30,480 --> 01:19:33,757
I'd love to see the professors with
tenure get bravery. Um I would love to

1482
01:19:33,840 --> 01:19:37,357
see I mean it would be fantastic. Um you
know my partner and I have done like a

1483
01:19:37,440 --> 01:19:38,557
lot of public speaking on this topic.

1484
01:19:38,640 --> 01:19:42,317
It's it's been intended to not just be
harsh but also be like okay like these

1485
01:19:42,400 --> 01:19:45,517
these challenges have to be confronted
directly. By the way, let me also say

1486
01:19:45,600 --> 01:19:49,197
something positive. you know, especially
post October 7th, there are a bunch of

1487
01:19:49,280 --> 01:19:52,477
very smart people who are major donors
and board members of these institutions

1488
01:19:52,560 --> 01:19:55,757
like Mark Rowan, you know, who are
really coming in trying to, you know, I

1489
01:19:55,840 --> 01:19:58,397
think legitimately trying trying to fix
these places. I have a friend on the

1490
01:19:58,480 --> 01:20:01,037
executive committee at one of the top
technical universities. He's working

1491
01:20:01,120 --> 01:20:05,597
overtime to try to do this. Man,
I hope they can figure it out. Um,

1492
01:20:05,680 --> 01:20:08,557
but I I but the counter question would
just be like, do you see it actually

1493
01:20:08,640 --> 01:20:12,637
happening at a single one of these places?
I I'm a person that believes in

1494
01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:16,397
leadership. If you have
the right leadership,

1495
01:20:16,480 --> 01:20:18,477
>> the whole system can be changed.

1496
01:20:18,560 --> 01:20:19,837
>> So here's a question
for your friend who

1497
01:20:19,920 --> 01:20:23,117
has tenure at one of these places,
which is who runs his university.

1498
01:20:23,200 --> 01:20:25,037
>> I think you know,
you know who I think runs it.

1499
01:20:25,120 --> 01:20:28,077
>> Yeah. >> Whoever
the [__] says they run it.

1500
01:20:28,160 --> 01:20:31,837
That's what great leadership is. Like
a president has that power. President of

1501
01:20:31,920 --> 01:20:35,117
university has the leverage because
they can mouth off like Elon can.

1502
01:20:35,200 --> 01:20:36,557
>> Can they fire the professors?

1503
01:20:36,640 --> 01:20:40,397
>> They can fire them through being
vocal publicly. Yes. Can they fire the

1504
01:20:40,480 --> 01:20:43,037
professors? >> What are you
talking about? Legally? No,

1505
01:20:43,120 --> 01:20:44,477
they cannot fire the professors.

1506
01:20:44,560 --> 01:20:45,757
>> Then we know who runs the university.

1507
01:20:45,840 --> 01:20:48,237
>> The professors. >> Yeah,
the professors. The professors and

1508
01:20:48,320 --> 01:20:50,797
the students. The professors and the
feral students. Then they're of course

1509
01:20:50,880 --> 01:20:53,597
in a radicalization feedback
cycle driving each other crazy.

1510
01:20:53,680 --> 01:20:56,317
>> The feral students. Yeah, the feral
students. Yeah, the feral students. What

1511
01:20:56,400 --> 01:20:59,197
happens when you're put in charge
of of your bureaucracy where the where the

1512
01:20:59,280 --> 01:21:02,797
thing that the bureaucracy knows
is that they can outlast you.

1513
01:21:02,880 --> 01:21:05,437
>> The thing that the tenure professors
at all these places know is it doesn't

1514
01:21:05,520 --> 01:21:08,557
matter who the president is because they
can outlast them. because they cannot

1515
01:21:08,640 --> 01:21:11,517
get fired. And by the way, it's
the same thing that bureaucrats in in the

1516
01:21:11,600 --> 01:21:13,917
government know. It's the same thing
that the bureaucrats in the Department

1517
01:21:14,000 --> 01:21:17,677
of Education know. They know the exact
same thing. They they can outlast you.

1518
01:21:17,760 --> 01:21:20,397
It's I mean, it's the whole thing
that it's the resistance. Like they can be

1519
01:21:20,480 --> 01:21:23,437
the resistance. They can just sit
there and resist, which is what they do.

1520
01:21:23,520 --> 01:21:25,837
They're not fireable. >> That's
definitely a crisis that needs to

1521
01:21:25,920 --> 01:21:29,277
be solved. That's a huge problem.
And I also don't like that I'm defending

1522
01:21:29,360 --> 01:21:31,677
academia here. I I agree with you that

1523
01:21:31,760 --> 01:21:36,077
the situation is dire and uh but I just

1524
01:21:36,160 --> 01:21:39,517
think that institutions are important
and I should also add context since

1525
01:21:39,600 --> 01:21:40,957
you've been grilling me a little bit.

1526
01:21:41,040 --> 01:21:45,677
You were using restaurants as an analogy
and earlier offline in this conversation

1527
01:21:45,760 --> 01:21:48,957
you said the Dairy Queen is a great
restaurant. So let's let's say Dairy

1528
01:21:49,040 --> 01:21:50,717
Queen is a great restaurant.
Let the listener take

1529
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:52,317
>> I said Dairy Queen
is the best restaurant.

1530
01:21:52,400 --> 01:21:55,597
>> The best restaurant. There [laughter]
you go. So everything that Mark Andrea

1531
01:21:55,680 --> 01:21:58,877
is saying today that >> you should
go order a blizzard. It's one

1532
01:21:58,960 --> 01:22:00,797
one day you should walk down
there and order a Blizzard.

1533
01:22:00,880 --> 01:22:03,197
>> Yeah, >> they can get
like 4,000 calories in a cup.

1534
01:22:03,280 --> 01:22:04,797
>> They can. And they're delicious.

1535
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:07,357
>> Amazing. They are they are truly
delicious. And they'll put they'll put

1536
01:22:07,440 --> 01:22:09,117
anything in there you want. >> All right.

1537
01:22:09,200 --> 01:22:11,917
>> Okay. So but anyway, let me just
close by saying look I I my friends in

1538
01:22:12,000 --> 01:22:14,797
university system I would just say look
like I this is the challenge. Like I

1539
01:22:14,880 --> 01:22:17,757
would just I would just pose this as
the challenge. Like to me like this is

1540
01:22:17,840 --> 01:22:21,357
having had a lot of these conversations
like this is the bar in my view. This is

1541
01:22:21,440 --> 01:22:23,677
the conversation that actually has
to happen. this is the bar that actually

1542
01:22:23,760 --> 01:22:26,637
has to be hit. These problems need
to be confronted directly because I think

1543
01:22:26,720 --> 01:22:29,437
there's just I think there's been way
too much I mean I'm actually worried

1544
01:22:29,520 --> 01:22:31,917
kind of on the other side there's too
much happy talk in these conversations.

1545
01:22:32,000 --> 01:22:34,237
Mhm. >> I think the taxpayers
do not understand

1546
01:22:34,320 --> 01:22:37,597
this level of crisis. And I think if the
taxpayers come to understand it, I think

1547
01:22:37,680 --> 01:22:42,237
the funding evaporates. And so I I think
the the fuse is going through, you know,

1548
01:22:42,320 --> 01:22:45,117
no fault of any of ours, but like the fuse
is going and there's some window of

1549
01:22:45,200 --> 01:22:49,197
time here uh to fix this and address
it and justify the money because it just

1550
01:22:49,280 --> 01:22:54,047
normal taxpayers sitting in normal towns
in normal jobs are not going to tolerate

1551
01:22:54,130 --> 01:22:55,837
[clears throat] this
for for that much longer.

1552
01:22:55,920 --> 01:22:57,997
>> You've mentioned
censorship a few times.

1553
01:22:58,080 --> 01:23:00,157
Let us if we can go deep into the

1554
01:23:00,240 --> 01:23:02,717
darkness of the past and how censorship

1555
01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:06,317
mechanism was used. So you are a good

1556
01:23:06,400 --> 01:23:07,597
person to speak about the history of

1557
01:23:07,680 --> 01:23:09,917
this because you were there uh on the

1558
01:23:10,000 --> 01:23:13,757
ground floor in uh 2013ish

1559
01:23:13,840 --> 01:23:17,277
Facebook. I I heard that uh you were

1560
01:23:17,360 --> 01:23:20,877
there when they invented or maybe uh uh

1561
01:23:20,960 --> 01:23:23,677
developed the term hate speech in the

1562
01:23:23,760 --> 01:23:27,277
context of censorship of on social

1563
01:23:27,360 --> 01:23:31,997
media. So uh take me to through
that history if you can the use of uh

1564
01:23:32,080 --> 01:23:35,967
censorship. >> So I was there
on the ground floor in 1993.

1565
01:23:36,050 --> 01:23:39,277
[laughter] >> There's multiple
floors to this building apparently.

1566
01:23:39,360 --> 01:23:42,157
>> There are. >> Yeah.
>> So I got the first ask to implement

1567
01:23:42,240 --> 01:23:45,837
censorship on the internet.
um which was in the web browser.

1568
01:23:45,920 --> 01:23:49,117
>> That is fascinating. >> Yeah.
Yeah. 19 actually 1982. Uh I was

1569
01:23:49,200 --> 01:23:51,117
asked to implement a nudity filter.

1570
01:23:51,200 --> 01:23:53,437
>> Did you have the courage
to speak up back then?

1571
01:23:53,520 --> 01:23:55,117
>> I I did not have
any problem speaking up

1572
01:23:55,200 --> 01:23:58,077
back then. Um I was making $625 an hour.

1573
01:23:58,160 --> 01:24:02,077
Um I did not have a lot to lose. Um no,
I was asked at the time and and look, I

1574
01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:04,877
you know, legitimate, you know, in some
sense a legitimate request which is

1575
01:24:04,960 --> 01:24:07,357
working on a on a research project
actually funded by the federal

1576
01:24:07,440 --> 01:24:10,717
government at a public university. So,
you know, I don't think my boss was like

1577
01:24:10,800 --> 01:24:13,757
in any way out of line, but it was like,
yeah, like this this web browser thing

1578
01:24:13,840 --> 01:24:16,397
is great, but like could it just make
sure to not have any photos of naked

1579
01:24:16,480 --> 01:24:19,357
people that show up, but if you
think about this for a second as a

1580
01:24:19,440 --> 01:24:22,957
technologist, I had an issue, which
is this was like pre-imageet, right? And

1581
01:24:23,040 --> 01:24:26,397
so, I had a brief period where I
tried to imagine an algorithm um that I

1582
01:24:26,480 --> 01:24:30,717
referred to as the breast detection
algorithm um [laughter] that I was going

1583
01:24:30,800 --> 01:24:34,397
to have to design. And then apparently
a variety of other apparently body parts

1584
01:24:34,480 --> 01:24:35,837
people are also sensitive about.

1585
01:24:35,920 --> 01:24:38,877
>> Yeah. And um and then I I
politely declined to do this

1586
01:24:38,960 --> 01:24:41,117
>> for for just the the
technical difficulties of it.

1587
01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:42,877
>> Well, number one, I didn't I actually
didn't know how to do it. But number

1588
01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:45,197
two, I was just like, "No, I'm not I'm
not building I'm just not building a

1589
01:24:45,280 --> 01:24:48,797
censorship engine. Like I'm a you know,
I'm just not doing it." Um and and in

1590
01:24:48,880 --> 01:24:51,037
those days it was, you know, in those
days the internet generally was, you

1591
01:24:51,120 --> 01:24:54,957
know, free fire zone for everything.
It was actually interesting sort of pre93

1592
01:24:55,040 --> 01:24:56,717
the internet was such a specific niche

1593
01:24:56,800 --> 01:24:58,957
community like it was like the million

1594
01:24:59,040 --> 01:25:02,317
kind of highest IQ nerds in the world.

1595
01:25:02,400 --> 01:25:05,837
Um and so it actually like didn't
really have a lot of you know issues. the

1596
01:25:05,920 --> 01:25:08,637
people were like super interested
in talking about like astrophysics and not

1597
01:25:08,720 --> 01:25:11,917
very interested in you know even
politics at that at that time so there

1598
01:25:12,000 --> 01:25:14,877
really was not an issue there but um
yeah I didn't I didn't want to start the

1599
01:25:14,960 --> 01:25:18,957
process um so I think the way to think
about this so first of all um you know

1600
01:25:19,040 --> 01:25:21,757
yeah so I was involved in this at Facebook
every step by the way I've been

1601
01:25:21,840 --> 01:25:24,077
involved with this at Facebook every
step of the way I joined the board there

1602
01:25:24,160 --> 01:25:27,997
in 2007 so I saw I've seen everything
in the last you know almost 20 years um

1603
01:25:28,080 --> 01:25:30,637
every step of the way but also I've been
involved in most of the other companies

1604
01:25:30,720 --> 01:25:34,077
over time so I was an angel investor in
Twitter knew them really well um we were

1605
01:25:34,160 --> 01:25:36,077
the founding investor in subst stack.

1606
01:25:36,160 --> 01:25:40,797
I'm part of the Elon takeover of Twitter
with X. I was an angel at LinkedIn. So I

1607
01:25:40,880 --> 01:25:43,517
I' I've been in these we were the founder
of Pinterest. We were one of the

1608
01:25:43,600 --> 01:25:47,197
one of the main investors there.
Reddit um as well. And I was having these

1609
01:25:47,280 --> 01:25:49,597
conversations with all these guys
all the way through. So as much talk

1610
01:25:49,680 --> 01:25:52,157
specifically about Facebook, but I
can just tell you like the the general

1611
01:25:52,240 --> 01:25:55,037
pattern and for quite a while it
was kind of all the same across these

1612
01:25:55,120 --> 01:25:59,277
companies. Um yeah. So, so basically
the way to think about this that the the

1613
01:25:59,360 --> 01:26:03,117
true kind of nuanced view of this is
that there is practically speaking no

1614
01:26:03,200 --> 01:26:07,037
internet service that can have zero
censorship. Um, and and by the way that

1615
01:26:07,120 --> 01:26:10,317
also mirrors there is no country
that actually has un limited free speech

1616
01:26:10,400 --> 01:26:15,437
either. The US first amendment actually
has 12 or 13 formal carveouts from the

1617
01:26:15,520 --> 01:26:19,037
Supreme Court over time. You know,
so incitement to violence and terrorist

1618
01:26:19,120 --> 01:26:22,877
recruitment and child abuse and so you
know, child pornography and so forth are

1619
01:26:22,960 --> 01:26:26,717
like they're not covered by the first
amendment. Um, and just practically

1620
01:26:26,800 --> 01:26:28,877
speaking, if you and I are going
to start an internet company and have a

1621
01:26:28,960 --> 01:26:31,677
service, we can't have that stuff
either, right? Cuz it's illegal or it

1622
01:26:31,760 --> 01:26:35,277
will just clearly, you know, destroy the
whole thing. So, you you're always going

1623
01:26:35,360 --> 01:26:38,397
to have a censorship engine. I mean,
hopefully it's not actually in the

1624
01:26:38,480 --> 01:26:40,957
browser, but like you're going to have
it for sure at the level of an of an

1625
01:26:41,040 --> 01:26:44,797
internet service. And but then what
happens is now you have now you have a

1626
01:26:44,880 --> 01:26:48,797
machine, right? Now, now you have
a system where you can put in rules saying

1627
01:26:48,880 --> 01:26:51,197
we allow this, we don't allow that. You

1628
01:26:51,280 --> 01:26:53,357
have enforcement, you have consequences,

1629
01:26:53,440 --> 01:26:55,917
right? Um and once that system is in

1630
01:26:56,000 --> 01:27:00,717
place like it becomes the ring of power
right which is like okay now anybody in

1631
01:27:00,800 --> 01:27:03,677
that company or anybody associated
with that company or anybody who wants to

1632
01:27:03,760 --> 01:27:06,797
pressure that company will just start to
say okay you should use that machine for

1633
01:27:06,880 --> 01:27:10,797
more than just terrorist recruitment and
child pornography you should use it for

1634
01:27:10,880 --> 01:27:13,997
XYZ um and basically that transition

1635
01:27:14,080 --> 01:27:18,637
happened call it 2012 2013 is is when
there was this like very very kind of

1636
01:27:18,720 --> 01:27:22,317
rapid pivot I think the kickoff to it
for some reason was this it was the

1637
01:27:22,400 --> 01:27:26,637
beginning of the second Obama term
Um I think it also coincided with the

1638
01:27:26,720 --> 01:27:30,317
sort of arrival of the first kind
of super woke kids into these into these

1639
01:27:30,400 --> 01:27:34,397
schools. Um you know that kind of you
know it's the kids that were in school

1640
01:27:34,480 --> 01:27:37,517
between like you know for the Iraq war
and then the global financial crisis and

1641
01:27:37,600 --> 01:27:39,597
like they came out like super
radicalized. They came into these

1642
01:27:39,680 --> 01:27:42,477
companies and they immediately started
mounting these social crusades to ban

1643
01:27:42,560 --> 01:27:46,477
and censor uh lots of things. And then
you know quite frankly the Democratic

1644
01:27:46,560 --> 01:27:49,117
party figured this out. Um and they
figured out that these companies were

1645
01:27:49,200 --> 01:27:51,917
you know very subject to being
controlled and they and the you know the

1646
01:27:52,000 --> 01:27:54,957
executive teams and boards of directors
are almost all Democrats and you know

1647
01:27:55,040 --> 01:27:57,837
there's tremendous circulation.
A lot of Obama people from the first term

1648
01:27:57,920 --> 01:28:01,197
actually came and worked in these
companies and a lot of FBI people and

1649
01:28:01,280 --> 01:28:03,517
other you know law enforcement
intelligence people came in and worked

1650
01:28:03,600 --> 01:28:07,517
and they're all dem you know all
Democrats for that set. Um and so they

1651
01:28:07,600 --> 01:28:11,437
just you know the the ring of power
was lying on the table. it had been built

1652
01:28:11,520 --> 01:28:15,917
and they, you know, picked it up and put
it on and then they just ran. And the

1653
01:28:16,000 --> 01:28:19,277
original discussions were basically
always on two topics. It was hate speech

1654
01:28:19,360 --> 01:28:23,917
and misinformation. Uh, hate speech
was the original one. Um, and the hate

1655
01:28:24,000 --> 01:28:26,957
speech conversation started exactly like
you'd expect, which is we can't have the

1656
01:28:27,040 --> 01:28:29,277
n-word. And which the answer is fair

1657
01:28:29,360 --> 01:28:34,157
enough, let's not have the n-word. Okay,
now we've set a precedent, right? And

1658
01:28:34,240 --> 01:28:36,957
then the and then and Jordan Peterson
has talked a lot lot about this. the

1659
01:28:37,040 --> 01:28:40,637
definition of hate speech ended up being
things that make people uncomfortable,

1660
01:28:40,720 --> 01:28:43,277
right? So, we can't have things that make,
you know, people uncomfortable. I

1661
01:28:43,360 --> 01:28:46,317
of course, you know, people like me that
are disagreeable raise their hands and

1662
01:28:46,400 --> 01:28:50,077
say, "Well, that idea right there makes
me uncomfortable, but of course that

1663
01:28:50,160 --> 01:28:51,437
doesn't count as hate speech, right?"

1664
01:28:51,520 --> 01:28:56,237
So, you know, the ring of power is on one
hand and not not on the other hand.

1665
01:28:56,320 --> 01:28:57,997
Um, and then basically that began this

1666
01:28:58,080 --> 01:29:03,597
slide where it ended up being that, you
know, completely anodine. His point Mark

1667
01:29:03,680 --> 01:29:06,397
has been making recently like completely
added comments that are completely

1668
01:29:06,480 --> 01:29:09,517
legitimate on television or on the
Senate floor. All of a sudden our hate

1669
01:29:09,600 --> 01:29:11,917
speech and can't be said online. So
that you know that the ring of power was

1670
01:29:12,000 --> 01:29:14,397
wielded in grossly irresponsible ways.

1671
01:29:14,480 --> 01:29:16,877
We could talk about all the stuff that
happened there. And then the other one

1672
01:29:16,960 --> 01:29:20,637
was misinformation and that wasn't
as there was a little bit of that early on

1673
01:29:20,720 --> 01:29:24,077
but of course that really kicked in
with with Trump. Um so so the hate speech

1674
01:29:24,160 --> 01:29:28,317
stuff the hate speech stuff predated
Trump by like three or four years. Um

1675
01:29:28,400 --> 01:29:31,997
the misinformation stuff was basically
it was a little bit later and it was a

1676
01:29:32,080 --> 01:29:35,437
consequence of the Russia gate hoax.
Um and then that was you know a ring of

1677
01:29:35,520 --> 01:29:39,837
power that was even more powerful right
because you know hate speech it's like

1678
01:29:39,920 --> 01:29:43,277
okay at some point if some if something
offensive or not like at least you can

1679
01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:46,477
have a question as to whether that's the
case but the problem with misinformation

1680
01:29:46,560 --> 01:29:50,957
is like is it the truth or not you know
you know what do we know for 800 years

1681
01:29:51,040 --> 01:29:53,757
or whatever western civilization
it's that you know there's only a few

1682
01:29:53,840 --> 01:29:57,837
entities that can determine the truth
on every topic. you know, there's God, you

1683
01:29:57,920 --> 01:30:00,457
know, there's the king. We don't
have those anymore. And the rest of

1684
01:30:00,540 --> 01:30:03,677
[clears throat] us are all imperfect and
flawed. And so, the idea that any group

1685
01:30:03,760 --> 01:30:06,557
of experts is going to sit around
the table and decide on the truth is, you

1686
01:30:06,640 --> 01:30:09,837
know, deeply anti-western and deeply
authoritarian. And somehow the

1687
01:30:09,920 --> 01:30:13,357
misinformation kind of crusade went
from the Russia gate hoax into just

1688
01:30:13,440 --> 01:30:17,517
full-blown we're going to use that
weapon for whatever we want. And then

1689
01:30:17,600 --> 01:30:19,917
and then of course then then
the culminating moment on that that really

1690
01:30:20,000 --> 01:30:23,517
was the straw that broke the camel's
back was um we're going to censor all

1691
01:30:23,600 --> 01:30:26,957
theories that the co virus might
have been manufactured in a lab as

1692
01:30:27,040 --> 01:30:30,477
misinformation and and and then and inside
these companies like that was the

1693
01:30:30,560 --> 01:30:33,437
point where people for the first time
this is like what three years ago if for

1694
01:30:33,520 --> 01:30:37,037
the first time they were like that
was when it sunk in where it's just

1695
01:30:37,120 --> 01:30:40,637
like okay this has spun completely out
of control. So anyway, that that that's

1696
01:30:40,720 --> 01:30:44,557
how we got to where we are. And then
basically that spell lasted that that

1697
01:30:44,640 --> 01:30:47,117
that complex existed and got expanded

1698
01:30:47,200 --> 01:30:51,517
basically from call it 2013 to 2023.

1699
01:30:51,600 --> 01:30:53,357
I think basically two things broke it.

1700
01:30:53,440 --> 01:30:56,717
Um one is Substack and so and I'm super

1701
01:30:56,800 --> 01:31:00,877
proud of those guys cuz they started
from scratch and declared right up front

1702
01:31:00,960 --> 01:31:05,117
that they were going to be a a free
speech platform. Um and they came under

1703
01:31:05,200 --> 01:31:09,197
intense pressure um including from the
press. um and you know they tried to

1704
01:31:09,280 --> 01:31:11,997
just beat them to the ground and kill
them and intense pressure by the way

1705
01:31:12,080 --> 01:31:15,197
from you know let's say certain of the
platform companies um you know basically

1706
01:31:15,280 --> 01:31:18,717
threatening them um and they stood up
to it and you know sitting here today they

1707
01:31:18,800 --> 01:31:21,757
have the widest spectrum of of speech
and and and conversation you know

1708
01:31:21,840 --> 01:31:24,877
anywhere on planet earth and they've
done a great job and it's worked by the

1709
01:31:24,960 --> 01:31:28,717
way it's great uh and then obviously
Elon uh you know with X was the the you

1710
01:31:28,800 --> 01:31:32,237
know the hammer blow um and then I the
third one now was what Mark is doing at

1711
01:31:32,320 --> 01:31:36,477
Facebook >> and there's
also like singular moments I

1712
01:31:36,560 --> 01:31:39,197
think you've spoken about this which uh

1713
01:31:39,280 --> 01:31:43,117
like John Stewart going on Steven Coar

1714
01:31:43,200 --> 01:31:45,597
and talking about the lab leak theory.

1715
01:31:45,680 --> 01:31:47,997
>> Yes. >> I just there's
certain moments that just

1716
01:31:48,080 --> 01:31:53,997
kind of shake everybody up. The right
person the right time just it's a wakeup

1717
01:31:54,080 --> 01:31:56,877
call. >> So that there
and I will tell you like

1718
01:31:56,960 --> 01:31:59,677
and I should say John Stewart attacked
me recently so I'm not that thrilled

1719
01:31:59,760 --> 01:32:03,837
about him but I would say I was a longun
fan of John Stewart. I watched probably

1720
01:32:03,920 --> 01:32:07,517
every episode of the Daily Show when he
was on it. um you know for probably 20

1721
01:32:07,600 --> 01:32:11,517
years but he did a very important public
service and it was that appearance on

1722
01:32:11,600 --> 01:32:14,317
the coar show and I don't know how
broadly this is you know at the time it

1723
01:32:14,400 --> 01:32:16,877
was in the news briefly but I don't know
how if people remember this but I will

1724
01:32:16,960 --> 01:32:20,637
tell you in in the rooms where people
discuss what is misinformation and these

1725
01:32:20,720 --> 01:32:23,517
policies that was a very big moment that
was probably actually the key catalyzing

1726
01:32:23,600 --> 01:32:26,957
moment and I think he exhibited I would
say conspicuous bravery and had a big

1727
01:32:27,040 --> 01:32:30,397
impact with that um and and yeah what
what for people who don't recall what he

1728
01:32:30,480 --> 01:32:33,757
did was and this was in the full-blown
like you absolut you know you absolutely

1729
01:32:33,840 --> 01:32:36,237
must lock down for 2 years you
absolutely must keep all the schools

1730
01:32:36,320 --> 01:32:38,957
closed. You absolutely must have
everybody work from home. You absolutely

1731
01:32:39,040 --> 01:32:41,437
must wear a mask. Like the whole thing.

1732
01:32:41,520 --> 01:32:43,277
Um and one of those was you absolutely

1733
01:32:43,360 --> 01:32:48,477
must believe that um co was completely
natural. You must believe that and not

1734
01:32:48,560 --> 01:32:52,637
believing that means you're a fascist
Nazi Trump supporter mega evil QAnon

1735
01:32:52,720 --> 01:32:55,437
person, right? And that was like uniform
and that was enforced by the social

1736
01:32:55,520 --> 01:32:59,517
media companies. Um and and and like I
said that that was the peak and and and

1737
01:32:59,600 --> 01:33:02,477
John Stewart went on the Cobar show
and I don't know if they planned it or not

1738
01:33:02,560 --> 01:33:05,277
cuz Coar looked shocked. I don't know
how much of it was a bit, but he went on

1739
01:33:05,360 --> 01:33:09,357
there and he he just had one of these
like the emperor is wearing no clothes

1740
01:33:09,440 --> 01:33:13,437
things where he said it's just not
plausible that you had the co supervirus

1741
01:33:13,520 --> 01:33:15,437
appear 300 yards down the street from

1742
01:33:15,520 --> 01:33:17,517
the Wuhan Institute of [laughter]

1743
01:33:17,600 --> 01:33:22,477
of Lethal Corona viruses. Um like
it's just not plausible that that that

1744
01:33:22,560 --> 01:33:24,877
certainly that you could just rule
that out. And then there was another key

1745
01:33:24,960 --> 01:33:27,517
moment actually the more serious version
was I think the author Nicholson Baker

1746
01:33:27,600 --> 01:33:29,037
wrote a big piece for New York magazine.

1747
01:33:29,120 --> 01:33:32,797
Uh Nicholson Baker is like one of our
great novelist writers um of our time

1748
01:33:32,880 --> 01:33:36,717
and he wrote the piece and he did
the complete undressing of it. Um and that

1749
01:33:36,800 --> 01:33:39,917
was the first I think that was the first
legit there had been like alt you know

1750
01:33:40,000 --> 01:33:42,317
renegade there had been you know people
running around saying this but getting

1751
01:33:42,400 --> 01:33:44,557
censored all over the place. That
was the first one that was like in the

1752
01:33:44,640 --> 01:33:48,397
mainstream press where he and he talked
to all the heretics and he just like

1753
01:33:48,480 --> 01:33:51,437
laid the whole thing out and and that
was a moment and I remember let's say a

1754
01:33:51,520 --> 01:33:54,717
board meeting at one of these companies
after that where basically you know

1755
01:33:54,800 --> 01:33:59,197
everybody looked around the table and
was like all right like I guess we're not

1756
01:33:59,280 --> 01:34:00,797
we don't need to censor that anymore.

1757
01:34:00,880 --> 01:34:03,357
And you know, and then of course what
immediately follows from that is well

1758
01:34:03,440 --> 01:34:07,277
wait a minute why were we censoring
that in the first place? And okay like and

1759
01:34:07,360 --> 01:34:09,837
then you know the downstream not
that day but the downstream conversations

1760
01:34:09,920 --> 01:34:13,597
were like okay if if if we made such
a giant in retrospect if we all made such

1761
01:34:13,680 --> 01:34:17,117
a giant collective mistake censoring
that then what does that say about the

1762
01:34:17,200 --> 01:34:19,917
rest of our regime and I think that was
the thread in the sweater that started

1763
01:34:20,000 --> 01:34:23,437
to unravel it. I should say it again.
I do think that the John Stewart

1764
01:34:23,520 --> 01:34:27,837
appearance and the statement he made
was a courageous act. Y uh and I think we

1765
01:34:27,920 --> 01:34:29,597
need to have more that of that in the

1766
01:34:29,680 --> 01:34:32,317
world. And like you said, Elon,

1767
01:34:32,400 --> 01:34:35,197
everything he did with X is is is a

1768
01:34:35,280 --> 01:34:38,477
series of courageous acts. And I think

1769
01:34:38,560 --> 01:34:40,717
what um

1770
01:34:40,800 --> 01:34:43,757
Zuck, what Mark Zuckerberg did on Rogan

1771
01:34:43,840 --> 01:34:47,117
a few days ago is a courageous act.

1772
01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:50,717
>> Can you just speak to that?
he has become, I think, an outstanding

1773
01:34:50,800 --> 01:34:53,197
communicator, right? Um, and he's, you
know, somebody who came in for a lot of

1774
01:34:53,280 --> 01:34:57,357
criticism earlier in his career on that
front. And I think he's, you know, he's

1775
01:34:57,440 --> 01:35:00,157
one of these guys who can sit down
and talk for three hours and and make

1776
01:35:00,240 --> 01:35:03,837
complete sense. And and you know,
as as you do with with all of all of your

1777
01:35:03,920 --> 01:35:06,477
episodes, like when somebody sits
and talks for three hours, like you really

1778
01:35:06,560 --> 01:35:10,077
get a sense of somebody cuz it's it's
really hard to to be artificial for that

1779
01:35:10,160 --> 01:35:12,637
long. And, you know, he's he's not done
that repeatedly. He's really good at it.

1780
01:35:12,720 --> 01:35:15,917
And then look, I I again I would maybe
put him in the third category now with

1781
01:35:16,000 --> 01:35:19,517
um certainly after that appearance.
Uh I would say um I would put him up there

1782
01:35:19,600 --> 01:35:22,317
now with you know kind of Trump in the
sense of the public and the the public

1783
01:35:22,400 --> 01:35:25,517
and the private are now synchronized.
I guess I'd say that like he he he said on

1784
01:35:25,600 --> 01:35:28,477
that show what he really believes. He
said all the same things that he says in

1785
01:35:28,560 --> 01:35:32,637
private like I don't think there's
really any any discrepancy anymore. Um I

1786
01:35:32,720 --> 01:35:36,237
would say he has always taken
upon himself a level of obligation

1787
01:35:36,320 --> 01:35:38,957
responsibility to running a company the

1788
01:35:39,040 --> 01:35:43,837
size of Meta and to running services
that are that large. Um and I think you

1789
01:35:43,920 --> 01:35:46,477
know his conception of what he's doing
which I think is correct is he's running

1790
01:35:46,560 --> 01:35:48,877
services that are bigger than any
country, right? He's running you know

1791
01:35:48,960 --> 01:35:53,197
over three billion people use those
services. Um and so and then you know

1792
01:35:53,280 --> 01:35:56,157
the company has you know many tens
of thousands of of employees and many

1793
01:35:56,240 --> 01:35:59,117
investors and it's a public company
and he thinks very deeply and seriously

1794
01:35:59,200 --> 01:36:03,597
about his responsibilities. Um, and so,
you know, he has not felt like he has

1795
01:36:03,680 --> 01:36:07,277
had, let's just say, the complete
flexibility that Elon has had. Um, and,

1796
01:36:07,360 --> 01:36:10,237
you know, people could argue that one
way or the other, but, you know, he's

1797
01:36:10,320 --> 01:36:13,037
he's, you know, yeah, he's he's,
you know, he talked about a lot. He's he's

1798
01:36:13,120 --> 01:36:16,397
evolved a lot. A lot of it was he
learned a lot. And by the way, I'm going

1799
01:36:16,480 --> 01:36:19,597
to put myself right back up there. Like,
I'm not claiming any huge foresight or

1800
01:36:19,680 --> 01:36:23,357
heroism on any of this. Like, I've also
learned to learn a lot. Like, like I my

1801
01:36:23,440 --> 01:36:26,397
views on things are very different
than they were 10 years ago on lots of

1802
01:36:26,480 --> 01:36:29,437
topics. And so, um, you know, I I've
been on a learning journey. he's been on

1803
01:36:29,520 --> 01:36:33,837
a learn learning journey. Um he
is a really really good learner. Um he

1804
01:36:33,920 --> 01:36:37,357
assimilates information, you know,
as good as or better than anybody else I

1805
01:36:37,440 --> 01:36:41,917
know. Um the other thing I guess I would
just say is he talked on that show about

1806
01:36:42,000 --> 01:36:45,517
something very important which is when
you're in a role where you're running a

1807
01:36:45,600 --> 01:36:49,117
company like that, there are a set
of decisions that you get to make and and

1808
01:36:49,200 --> 01:36:52,797
you deserve to be criticized for those
decisions and so forth and it's valid.

1809
01:36:52,880 --> 01:36:57,037
Um, but you are under tremendous
external pressure um, as well. Uh, and

1810
01:36:57,120 --> 01:37:00,157
and by the way, you're under tremendous
internal pressure. You've got your

1811
01:37:00,240 --> 01:37:03,437
employees coming at you. You've got your
executives in some cases coming at you.

1812
01:37:03,520 --> 01:37:06,637
You've got your board in some cases
coming at you. Um, you've got your

1813
01:37:06,720 --> 01:37:09,757
shareholders coming at you. So, you
you've got your internal pressures, but

1814
01:37:09,840 --> 01:37:11,677
you also have the press coming at you.

1815
01:37:11,760 --> 01:37:13,757
You've got academia coming at you.

1816
01:37:13,840 --> 01:37:17,517
You've got the entire nonprofit complex
coming, activist complex coming at you.

1817
01:37:17,600 --> 01:37:21,037
And then really critically, you know,
he talked about in Rogan, um, and these

1818
01:37:21,120 --> 01:37:25,357
companies all went through this in this
last especially five years, you had the

1819
01:37:25,440 --> 01:37:28,877
government coming at you. Um,
and you know, that's the really, you know,

1820
01:37:28,960 --> 01:37:32,717
stinky end of the pool. um where you
know the government was in my view you

1821
01:37:32,800 --> 01:37:35,997
know illegally exerting um you know
just in flagrant violation of the first

1822
01:37:36,080 --> 01:37:40,397
amendment and federal laws on on speech
and coercion and uh and conspiracy uh

1823
01:37:40,480 --> 01:37:43,917
forcing these companies to uh engage
in activities um you know that again in

1824
01:37:44,000 --> 01:37:46,237
some cases they may have wanted to do
but in other cases they clearly didn't

1825
01:37:46,320 --> 01:37:51,037
want to do and felt like they had
to do and the level of pressure

1826
01:37:51,120 --> 01:37:54,637
like I say like I've known every CEO
at Twitter um they they've all had the

1827
01:37:54,720 --> 01:37:58,557
exact same experience which when they
were in the job it was just daily beatings

1828
01:37:58,640 --> 01:37:59,677
like it's just getting punched in the

1829
01:37:59,760 --> 01:38:02,157
face every single day constantly. And

1830
01:38:02,240 --> 01:38:06,877
you know, Mark is very good at getting
physically punched in the face,

1831
01:38:06,960 --> 01:38:08,077
>> getting better and better. Yeah.

1832
01:38:08,160 --> 01:38:11,437
>> And he is and and he you know, and he's
very good at, you know, taking a punch

1833
01:38:11,520 --> 01:38:14,717
and he has taken many many punches. So
I would encourage people to have a level

1834
01:38:14,800 --> 01:38:16,797
of sympathy for these are not kings.

1835
01:38:16,880 --> 01:38:19,917
These these are people who operate with
like I would say extraordinary levels of

1836
01:38:20,000 --> 01:38:23,517
external pressure. I think if I had been
in his job for the last decade, I would

1837
01:38:23,600 --> 01:38:28,077
be a little puddle on the floor. Um,
and so it it it says, I think, a lot about

1838
01:38:28,160 --> 01:38:31,117
him that he has, you know, risen to this
occasion the way that he has. And by the

1839
01:38:31,200 --> 01:38:33,517
way, I should also say, you know,
the the cynicism of course is immediately

1840
01:38:33,600 --> 01:38:36,717
out. And, you know, it's a, you know,
legitimate thing for people to say, but,

1841
01:38:36,800 --> 01:38:38,877
you know, it's like, oh, you're only
doing this because of Trump or, you

1842
01:38:38,960 --> 01:38:42,317
know, whatever. And it's just like,
no, like he has been thinking about and

1843
01:38:42,400 --> 01:38:45,117
working on these things and trying
to figure them out for a very long time.

1844
01:38:45,200 --> 01:38:48,477
And so, I I think what you saw are
legitimate, deeply held beliefs, not

1845
01:38:48,560 --> 01:38:51,437
some, you know, you know, sort of just
in the- moment thing that could change

1846
01:38:51,520 --> 01:38:53,517
at any time. >> So,
what do you think it's like to be

1847
01:38:53,600 --> 01:38:56,077
him? and uh other leaders of companies

1848
01:38:56,160 --> 01:38:59,597
to be you and withstand internal

1849
01:38:59,680 --> 01:39:04,637
pressure and external pressure. What's
that life like? Is it deeply lonely?

1850
01:39:04,720 --> 01:39:07,677
>> That's a great question. So leaders are
lonely to start with and and this is one

1851
01:39:07,760 --> 01:39:10,877
of those things where almost nobody has
sympathy, right? [laughter] Nobody feels

1852
01:39:10,960 --> 01:39:15,117
sorry for a CEO, right? Like it's not
a thing, right? Um and you know, and again

1853
01:39:15,200 --> 01:39:17,917
legitimately so like CEOs get paid a lot
like the whole thing. There's a lot of

1854
01:39:18,000 --> 01:39:20,317
great things about it. So it's not like
they should be out there asking for a

1855
01:39:20,400 --> 01:39:23,597
lot of sympathy, but it is the case that
they are human beings. Um, and it is the

1856
01:39:23,680 --> 01:39:27,357
case that it is a lonely job. And the
reason it's a lonely job, um, is because

1857
01:39:27,440 --> 01:39:31,757
your words carry tremendous weight.
Um, and you are dealing with extremely

1858
01:39:31,840 --> 01:39:34,797
complicated issues and you're under
a tremendous amount of emotional, you

1859
01:39:34,880 --> 01:39:38,477
know, personal emotional stress. Um,
and you know, you often end up not being

1860
01:39:38,560 --> 01:39:41,277
able to sleep well and you end up not
being able to like keep up an exercise

1861
01:39:41,360 --> 01:39:43,917
routine and all those things.
And you know, you come under family stress

1862
01:39:44,000 --> 01:39:47,197
because you're working all the time or
my partner Ben, you know, was he was CEO

1863
01:39:47,280 --> 01:39:50,237
of our last company before we started
the venture firm. He he said, you know,

1864
01:39:50,320 --> 01:39:53,037
the problem he had like with with his
family life was he would even when he

1865
01:39:53,120 --> 01:39:56,957
was home at night, he wasn't home
because he was in his head trying to

1866
01:39:57,040 --> 01:39:59,517
solve all the business problems and so
he was like supposed to be like having

1867
01:39:59,600 --> 01:40:01,517
dinner with his kids and he was
physically there but he wasn't mentally

1868
01:40:01,600 --> 01:40:04,797
there. So, you know, you kind of get
you get that a lot. But the key thing is

1869
01:40:04,880 --> 01:40:05,997
like you can't talk to people, right?

1870
01:40:06,080 --> 01:40:08,557
So, you can't I mean, you can talk to
your spouse and your kids, but like they

1871
01:40:08,640 --> 01:40:11,117
don't understand they're not working in
your company. They don't understand they

1872
01:40:11,200 --> 01:40:14,957
have the context to really help you. You
if you talk to your executives, they all

1873
01:40:15,040 --> 01:40:18,797
have agendas, right? And so they're all
they're all and they can't resist. Like

1874
01:40:18,880 --> 01:40:22,717
it's just human nature and and and so
you you can't necessarily rely on what

1875
01:40:22,800 --> 01:40:26,797
they say. It's very hard in most
companies to talk to your board because

1876
01:40:26,880 --> 01:40:30,637
they can fire you right now.
Now Mark has the situation because he has

1877
01:40:30,720 --> 01:40:33,517
control. It actually turns out he can
talk to his board and Mark talks to us

1878
01:40:33,600 --> 01:40:36,077
about many things that he doesn't
that most CEOs won't talk to their boards

1879
01:40:36,160 --> 01:40:39,917
about because we literally because we
can't fire him. Um but the general a

1880
01:40:40,000 --> 01:40:42,637
general including all the CEOs
of Twitter that that none of them had

1881
01:40:42,720 --> 01:40:46,317
control and so they they could all get
fired. So, um, you can't talk to the

1882
01:40:46,400 --> 01:40:48,557
board members. They're going to fire you.
You can't talk to the shareholders

1883
01:40:48,640 --> 01:40:52,397
cuz they they'll just like dump your
stock, right? Like, okay, so who's the

1884
01:40:52,480 --> 01:40:55,597
So, so, so every once in a while,
what you find is basically the best case

1885
01:40:55,680 --> 01:40:58,877
scenario they have is they can talk to
other CEOs. Um, and there's these little

1886
01:40:58,960 --> 01:41:01,437
organizations where they kind of pair
up and do that. And so, they maybe get a

1887
01:41:01,520 --> 01:41:04,317
little bit out of that, but but even
that's fraught with peril because can

1888
01:41:04,400 --> 01:41:07,597
you really talk about confidential
information with another CEO? Insider

1889
01:41:07,680 --> 01:41:11,517
trading risk. Um, and so it's just
a very it's just a very lonely isolating

1890
01:41:11,600 --> 01:41:14,797
thing to start with. Um and then you
you and then on top of that you apply

1891
01:41:14,880 --> 01:41:18,557
pressure. Um right and that's where it
gets painful. And then maybe I'll just

1892
01:41:18,640 --> 01:41:20,637
spend a moment on this internal external

1893
01:41:20,720 --> 01:41:23,757
pressure thing. Um my general experience

1894
01:41:23,840 --> 01:41:28,557
with companies is that they can
withstand most forms of external

1895
01:41:28,640 --> 01:41:31,917
pressure as long as they
retain internal coherence.

1896
01:41:32,000 --> 01:41:34,717
>> Right? So as long as the internal team

1897
01:41:34,800 --> 01:41:39,597
um is really bonded together
and supporting each other um most forms of

1898
01:41:39,680 --> 01:41:42,877
external pressure you can withstand.
And by that I mean investors dumped your

1899
01:41:42,960 --> 01:41:45,757
stock, you lose your biggest customers,

1900
01:41:45,840 --> 01:41:50,077
you know, whatever negative article, you
know, negative headline and you know um

1901
01:41:50,160 --> 01:41:53,437
you can you can withstand all that and
basically in fact many of those forms of

1902
01:41:53,520 --> 01:41:55,917
pressure can be bonding experiences
for the team where they where they where

1903
01:41:56,000 --> 01:42:00,877
they come out stronger. Um what you 100%
cannot withstand is the internal crack.

1904
01:42:00,960 --> 01:42:04,957
And what I always look for in high
pressure corporate situations now is the

1905
01:42:05,040 --> 01:42:07,117
moment when the internal team cracks

1906
01:42:07,200 --> 01:42:12,717
because I know the minute that happens,
we're in a different regime. Like it's

1907
01:42:12,800 --> 01:42:15,277
like the, you know, the solid is turned
into a liquid. Like we're in a different

1908
01:42:15,360 --> 01:42:18,397
regime and like the whole thing can
unravel in the next week cuz then people

1909
01:42:18,480 --> 01:42:21,357
turn I mean this I guess this is what's
happening in Los Angeles right now. The

1910
01:42:21,440 --> 01:42:26,717
the the the mayor and and the fire chief
turned on each other and that's it. That

1911
01:42:26,800 --> 01:42:29,837
government is dysfunctional. It is never
going to get put back together again. It

1912
01:42:29,920 --> 01:42:33,357
is over. it is not going to work ever
again. And that's what happens inside

1913
01:42:33,440 --> 01:42:36,477
companies. Um and so so so somebody like

1914
01:42:36,560 --> 01:42:41,037
Mark is under like profound internal
pressure and external pressure at the

1915
01:42:41,120 --> 01:42:44,157
same time. Now he's been very good
at maintaining the coherence of his

1916
01:42:44,240 --> 01:42:49,197
executive team, but he has had over the
years a lot of activist employees um as

1917
01:42:49,280 --> 01:42:52,477
a lot of these companies have had and so
that's been continuous pressure. And

1918
01:42:52,560 --> 01:42:55,517
then the final thing I'd say is I said
that companies can withstand most forms

1919
01:42:55,600 --> 01:42:58,637
of external pressure but not all.
And the special although not all one is

1920
01:42:58,720 --> 01:43:00,557
government pressure. um is that when

1921
01:43:00,640 --> 01:43:03,517
your government comes for you like

1922
01:43:03,600 --> 01:43:07,837
yeah any CEO who thinks that they're
bigger than their government um has that

1923
01:43:07,920 --> 01:43:09,837
notion beaten out of them in short order.

1924
01:43:09,920 --> 01:43:13,437
>> Can you just linger
on that cuz it it is

1925
01:43:13,520 --> 01:43:17,357
uh maybe educating and deeply
disturbing. You've spoken about it

1926
01:43:17,440 --> 01:43:22,557
before but worth speaking about again
this government pressure. So you think

1927
01:43:22,640 --> 01:43:24,077
they've crossed the line into

1928
01:43:24,160 --> 01:43:27,357
essentially criminal levels of pressure?

1929
01:43:27,440 --> 01:43:29,597
>> Flagrant criminality

1930
01:43:29,680 --> 01:43:32,317
felonies like obvious felonies and I can

1931
01:43:32,400 --> 01:43:35,437
I can actually cite the laws but yes

1932
01:43:35,520 --> 01:43:39,757
absolute criminality.
>> Can you explain how those possible to

1933
01:43:39,840 --> 01:43:42,397
happen and maybe on a hopeful note how

1934
01:43:42,480 --> 01:43:46,797
we can avoid that happening again? So
I should start with is a lot of this now

1935
01:43:46,880 --> 01:43:50,077
is in the public record. Um which
is good because it needs to be in the

1936
01:43:50,160 --> 01:43:52,237
public record. And so there's there's
three forms of things that are in the

1937
01:43:52,320 --> 01:43:53,437
public record that people can look at.

1938
01:43:53,520 --> 01:43:57,197
So one is the Twitter files. Um right
which Elon put out with the set of

1939
01:43:57,280 --> 01:43:59,917
journalists when he took over. And I
will just tell you the Twitter files are

1940
01:44:00,000 --> 01:44:03,277
100% representative of what I've seen
at every other one of these companies. And

1941
01:44:03,360 --> 01:44:06,477
so you can just see what happened
in Twitter and you can just assume that

1942
01:44:06,560 --> 01:44:09,357
that happened in in these other companies.
Um you know for the most part

1943
01:44:09,440 --> 01:44:11,837
certainly in terms of the kind of pressure
that they got. So that's that's

1944
01:44:11,920 --> 01:44:14,557
number one. And that stuff's you can
just read it and you should if you

1945
01:44:14,640 --> 01:44:19,117
haven't. Um the second is um Mark
referenced this in the Rogan podcast.

1946
01:44:19,200 --> 01:44:22,157
There's a congressman Jim Jordan who
has a committee congressional committee

1947
01:44:22,240 --> 01:44:25,437
called the weaponization committee and
they in the last you know whatever three

1948
01:44:25,520 --> 01:44:28,797
years have uh done a full-scale
investigation of this and Facebook

1949
01:44:28,880 --> 01:44:32,797
produced a lot of documents into
that investigation and those have many of

1950
01:44:32,880 --> 01:44:35,357
those have now been made public and you
can download those reports and there's

1951
01:44:35,440 --> 01:44:38,877
like like 2,000 pages worth of material
on that and that's essentially the

1952
01:44:38,960 --> 01:44:41,597
Facebook version of the Twitter
files just arrived at with a different

1953
01:44:41,680 --> 01:44:45,517
mechanism. Um and then third is Mark
himself talking about this on on on

1954
01:44:45,600 --> 01:44:49,197
Rogan. So I'll, you know, just defer
to his comments there. But yeah, basically

1955
01:44:49,280 --> 01:44:52,797
what what those three forms
of information show you is basically the

1956
01:44:52,880 --> 01:44:57,517
government, you know, over time, um,
and then culminating in 2020, 2021, you

1957
01:44:57,600 --> 01:45:00,317
know, in the last four years just
decided that the First Amendment didn't

1958
01:45:00,400 --> 01:45:04,397
apply to them. Um, and they just decided
that, um, federal laws around free

1959
01:45:04,480 --> 01:45:08,317
speech and around conspiracies to take
away the rights of citizens just don't

1960
01:45:08,400 --> 01:45:13,037
apply. Um, and they just decided that
they can just arbitrarily pressure um,

1961
01:45:13,120 --> 01:45:16,637
uh, just like literally arbitrarily call
up companies and threaten and bully um,

1962
01:45:16,720 --> 01:45:19,917
and yell and scream and and you know,
threaten repercussions and force people

1963
01:45:20,000 --> 01:45:24,157
to force them to censor. Um, and you know,
there's this whole thing of like,

1964
01:45:24,240 --> 01:45:26,397
well, the First Amendment only applies to,
you know, the government. It doesn't

1965
01:45:26,480 --> 01:45:29,517
apply to companies. It's like, well,
there's actually a little bit of nuance

1966
01:45:29,600 --> 01:45:33,277
to that. First of all, it definitely
applies to the government. [laughter]

1967
01:45:33,360 --> 01:45:37,517
Like 100% the first amendment applies
to the government. By the way, so does the

1968
01:45:37,600 --> 01:45:39,757
fourth amendment and the fifth
amendment, including the right to due

1969
01:45:39,840 --> 01:45:41,437
process, also applies to the government.

1970
01:45:41,520 --> 01:45:45,037
There was no due process at all to any
of the censorship regime that was put in

1971
01:45:45,120 --> 01:45:48,637
place. There was no due process put in
place, by the way, for debanking either.

1972
01:45:48,720 --> 01:45:52,717
Those are just as serious violations
as the as the free speech violations. And

1973
01:45:52,800 --> 01:45:55,597
so this is just like flagrant flagrant
unconstitutional behavior. And then

1974
01:45:55,680 --> 01:46:00,717
there are specific federal statutes.
Um there's it's 18241 and 18242.

1975
01:46:00,800 --> 01:46:03,677
And one of them applies to federal
employees, government employees. And the

1976
01:46:03,760 --> 01:46:08,077
other one uh applies to private actors
um around what's called deprivation of

1977
01:46:08,160 --> 01:46:12,077
rights um and conspiracy to deprive
rights. And it is not legal according to

1978
01:46:12,160 --> 01:46:15,917
the United States criminal code for
government employees or in a conspiracy

1979
01:46:16,000 --> 01:46:19,197
private entities to take away
constitutional rights. And

1980
01:46:19,280 --> 01:46:22,477
interestingly, some of those
constitutional rights are enumerated,

1981
01:46:22,560 --> 01:46:24,957
for example, in the first amendment,
freedom of speech. And then some of

1982
01:46:25,040 --> 01:46:27,997
those rights actually do
not need to be enumerated.

1983
01:46:28,080 --> 01:46:31,917
It is if the government takes away
rights that you have, they don't need to

1984
01:46:32,000 --> 01:46:34,877
be specifically enumerated rights
in the constitution in order to still be a

1985
01:46:34,960 --> 01:46:39,837
felony. The constitution does not very
specifically does not say you only have

1986
01:46:39,920 --> 01:46:42,637
the rights that it gives you. It says
you have all the rights that have not

1987
01:46:42,720 --> 01:46:46,637
been previously defined as being taken
away from you, right? And so debanking

1988
01:46:46,720 --> 01:46:50,077
qualifies as a right, you know, right
to access to the financial system is every

1989
01:46:50,160 --> 01:46:53,997
bit something that's subject to these
laws as as as free speech. Um, and so

1990
01:46:54,080 --> 01:46:56,557
yeah, that this has happened. And then
I'll just add one final thing, which is

1991
01:46:56,640 --> 01:46:59,677
we've talked about two parties. So far
talked about the government employees um

1992
01:46:59,760 --> 01:47:02,557
and then we've talked about the companies.
The government employees for

1993
01:47:02,640 --> 01:47:06,237
sure have misbehaved. Um the companies
there's a very interesting question

1994
01:47:06,320 --> 01:47:10,797
there as to whether they are victims
or perpetrators or both. um you know they

1995
01:47:10,880 --> 01:47:13,677
will defend and they will argue and I
believe they have a good case that they

1996
01:47:13,760 --> 01:47:17,037
are victims not perpetrators right they
are the downstream subjects of pressure

1997
01:47:17,120 --> 01:47:20,957
not the co you know not the cause
of pressure but there's a big swath of

1998
01:47:21,040 --> 01:47:23,597
people who are in the middle and
specifically the ones that are funded by

1999
01:47:23,680 --> 01:47:26,957
the government that I think are
in possibly pretty big trouble and that's

2000
01:47:27,040 --> 01:47:31,437
all of these third party um censorship
bureaus um I mean the one that sort of

2001
01:47:31,520 --> 01:47:35,757
is most obvious is the so-called
Stanford Internet Observatory um that

2002
01:47:35,840 --> 01:47:38,877
got booted up there over the last
several years and they basically were

2003
01:47:38,960 --> 01:47:40,797
funded by the federal government to be

2004
01:47:40,880 --> 01:47:43,357
third-party censorship operations and

2005
01:47:43,440 --> 01:47:48,157
they're private sector actors but acting
with federal funding and so it puts them

2006
01:47:48,240 --> 01:47:51,917
in this very interesting spot where
there there could be you know the very

2007
01:47:52,000 --> 01:47:54,237
obvious theory under which they're
basically acting as agents of the

2008
01:47:54,320 --> 01:47:57,517
government um and so I think they're
also very exposed on this and have

2009
01:47:57,600 --> 01:47:59,437
behaved in just flagrantly illegal ways

2010
01:47:59,520 --> 01:48:01,837
>> so fundamentally government should not

2011
01:48:01,920 --> 01:48:04,797
do any kind of pressure even soft

2012
01:48:04,880 --> 01:48:08,877
pressure on companies to censor can't

2013
01:48:08,960 --> 01:48:11,997
not allow >> it really
is disturbing. I mean, it

2014
01:48:12,080 --> 01:48:15,597
probably started soft,

2015
01:48:15,680 --> 01:48:19,037
lightly, slowly, and then it escalates

2016
01:48:19,120 --> 01:48:23,357
>> as the the old will to power
will instruct them to do

2017
01:48:23,440 --> 01:48:27,117
>> cuz you get you get I mean, yeah.
I mean, that's why that's why there's

2018
01:48:27,200 --> 01:48:31,517
protection cuz you can't put a check
on power for government, right?

2019
01:48:31,600 --> 01:48:34,397
>> There are so many ways that they can
get you. Like there are so many ways they

2020
01:48:34,480 --> 01:48:37,437
can come at you and get you. And you
know the the thing here to think about

2021
01:48:37,520 --> 01:48:40,477
is a lot of times when people think
about government action they think about

2022
01:48:40,560 --> 01:48:44,717
legislation right because you so when
I was a kid we got trained how does

2023
01:48:44,800 --> 01:48:48,077
government work there was this famous
animated short the thing we got shown

2024
01:48:48,160 --> 01:48:51,037
was just a cartoon of how a bill becomes
a law and it's like this you know fancy

2025
01:48:51,120 --> 01:48:53,517
little bill snaked along
and goes this >> I'm just a bill.

2026
01:48:53,600 --> 01:48:56,077
>> Yeah >> exactly like
it's like all right number

2027
01:48:56,160 --> 01:48:58,717
one that's not how it works at all like
that that doesn't actually happen. We

2028
01:48:58,800 --> 01:49:01,677
could talk about that but but but even
beyond that mostly what we're dealing

2029
01:49:01,760 --> 01:49:04,717
with is not legislation. When we talk
about government power these days mostly

2030
01:49:04,800 --> 01:49:09,037
it's not legislation. Mostly it's
either regulation which is basically the

2031
01:49:09,120 --> 01:49:12,077
equivalent of legislation but having
not gone through the legislative process

2032
01:49:12,160 --> 01:49:15,117
which is a very big open legal issue
and one of the things that the DOA is very

2033
01:49:15,200 --> 01:49:19,117
focused on. Most most government rules
are not legislated they're regulated. Um

2034
01:49:19,200 --> 01:49:22,237
and that that and there's tons and tons
of regulations that these companies are

2035
01:49:22,320 --> 01:49:25,037
sub this is another cliche you'll hear
a lot which is oh private companies can do

2036
01:49:25,120 --> 01:49:28,237
whatever they want. It's like oh no
they can't. they're subject to tens of

2037
01:49:28,320 --> 01:49:32,157
thousands of regulations that they have
to comply with. Um, and the the hammer

2038
01:49:32,240 --> 01:49:34,717
that comes down when you don't comply
with regulations is profound. Like they

2039
01:49:34,800 --> 01:49:37,517
can completely wreck your company
with no abil no ability for you to do

2040
01:49:37,600 --> 01:49:40,797
anything about it. So so so regulation
is a big part of the way the power gets

2041
01:49:40,880 --> 01:49:44,317
exercised. And then there's what's
called just flatout administrative power

2042
01:49:44,400 --> 01:49:47,117
is the term that you'll hear.
Administrative power is just literally

2043
01:49:47,200 --> 01:49:49,917
the government telling you calling you
and telling you what to do. Here's an

2044
01:49:50,000 --> 01:49:52,957
example how this works. So Facebook had
this whole program a few years back to

2045
01:49:53,040 --> 01:49:56,477
do a global cryptocurrency for payments
called Libra. you know, and they they

2046
01:49:56,560 --> 01:49:59,037
built the entire system and it
was this high-scale, you know, sort of new

2047
01:49:59,120 --> 01:50:01,037
cryptocurrency and they were going
to build in every product and there were

2048
01:50:01,120 --> 01:50:03,677
going to be three billion people who
could transact with Libra and they went

2049
01:50:03,760 --> 01:50:06,157
to the government and they went to the
all these different try to figure out

2050
01:50:06,240 --> 01:50:08,637
how to make it so it's like fully
compliant with anti-moneyaundering and

2051
01:50:08,720 --> 01:50:10,477
all these, you know, controls and
everything and they had the whole thing

2052
01:50:10,560 --> 01:50:14,877
ready to go. two senators wrote letters
to the big banks um saying we're not

2053
01:50:14,960 --> 01:50:20,157
telling you that you can't work with
Facebook on this. But if you do, you

2054
01:50:20,240 --> 01:50:23,277
should know that every aspect of your
business is going to come under greatly

2055
01:50:23,360 --> 01:50:27,517
increased level of regulatory scrutiny,
which is of course the exact equivalent

2056
01:50:27,600 --> 01:50:31,037
of it sure is a nice corner restaurant
you have here. It would be a shame if

2057
01:50:31,120 --> 01:50:33,357
you know somebody tossed a Molotov
cocktail through the window and burned

2058
01:50:33,440 --> 01:50:37,357
it down tonight, right? And so that
letter like what is that letter? Like

2059
01:50:37,440 --> 01:50:41,757
it's not a law. It's not even
a regulation. is just like straight direct

2060
01:50:41,840 --> 01:50:45,517
state power and and then and then it
culminates in literally calls from the

2061
01:50:45,600 --> 01:50:49,037
White House where they're just like flat
out telling you what to do, which is of

2062
01:50:49,120 --> 01:50:52,557
course what a king gets to do, but not
what a president gets to do. Um and and

2063
01:50:52,640 --> 01:50:55,757
so anyway, so this B so so what
these companies experienced was they

2064
01:50:55,840 --> 01:50:59,917
experienced the full paniply of this,
but it was it was the level of intensity

2065
01:51:00,000 --> 01:51:02,157
was in that order. It was actually
legislation was the least important

2066
01:51:02,240 --> 01:51:04,157
part. Regulation was more important.

2067
01:51:04,240 --> 01:51:05,597
Administrative power was more important.

2068
01:51:05,680 --> 01:51:09,277
And then just like flatout demands and
flatout threats were ultimately the most

2069
01:51:09,360 --> 01:51:13,517
important. How do you fix it? Well,
first of all, like you have to elect

2070
01:51:13,600 --> 01:51:17,197
people who don't do it. So like as with
all these things, ultimately the fault

2071
01:51:17,280 --> 01:51:20,877
lies with the voters. Um and so, you know,
you have to decide you don't want

2072
01:51:20,960 --> 01:51:23,837
to live in that regime. I have no idea
what part of this recent election mapped

2073
01:51:23,920 --> 01:51:26,557
to the censorship regime. I do know
a lot of people on the right got very

2074
01:51:26,640 --> 01:51:29,197
angry about the censorship, but I,
you know, I think it probably at least

2075
01:51:29,280 --> 01:51:33,117
helped with enthusiasm on that side. Um,
you know, maybe some people on the left

2076
01:51:33,200 --> 01:51:36,077
will now not want their, you know,
Democratic nominees to be sore

2077
01:51:36,160 --> 01:51:40,637
proensorship. Um, so the the voters
definitely, you know, get a vote. Um,

2078
01:51:40,720 --> 01:51:44,317
number one. Number two, I think you
need transparency. You need to know what

2079
01:51:44,400 --> 01:51:46,397
happened. We know some of what happened.

2080
01:51:46,480 --> 01:51:50,317
Um, Peter Teal has written in the FT
just now saying we just need like broad

2081
01:51:50,400 --> 01:51:52,877
after what we've been through in the
last decade. We need broad-based truth

2082
01:51:52,960 --> 01:51:55,997
and reconciliation, uh, you know,
efforts to really get to the root of

2083
01:51:56,080 --> 01:51:59,117
things. Um, so maybe that's part of it.

2084
01:51:59,200 --> 01:52:01,677
We need investigations for sure.

2085
01:52:01,760 --> 01:52:04,797
Ultimately, we need prosecutions. Like
we we need ultimately we need people to

2086
01:52:04,880 --> 01:52:07,677
go to jail. Um, because we need to set
object lessons that say that you don't

2087
01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:11,357
get to do this. And and on those last
two, I would say that that those are

2088
01:52:11,440 --> 01:52:14,397
both up to the new administration.
And I don't want to speak for them and I I

2089
01:52:14,480 --> 01:52:16,877
don't want to predict what they're going
to do, but they have they for sure have

2090
01:52:16,960 --> 01:52:18,237
the ability to do both of those things.

2091
01:52:18,320 --> 01:52:20,477
And, you know, we'll we'll
see where they take it.

2092
01:52:20,560 --> 01:52:22,877
>> Yeah. Yeah, it's truly disturbing.
I don't think anybody wants this kind of

2093
01:52:22,960 --> 01:52:25,277
overreach of power for government,

2094
01:52:25,360 --> 01:52:26,877
including perhaps people that were

2095
01:52:26,960 --> 01:52:30,157
participating it. It's like this dark

2096
01:52:30,240 --> 01:52:33,277
momentum of power that you just get

2097
01:52:33,360 --> 01:52:37,197
caught up in it. And that's the reason
there's that kind of protection. Nobody

2098
01:52:37,280 --> 01:52:39,357
wants that. >> So, I use
the metaphor of the ring of

2099
01:52:39,440 --> 01:52:42,317
power. And for people who don't catch
the reference, that's Lord Lord of the

2100
01:52:42,400 --> 01:52:44,717
Rings. And the thing with the ring
of power in Lord of the Rings, it's the

2101
01:52:44,800 --> 01:52:47,917
ring the Gollum has in the beginning and
it turns you invisible. And it turns out

2102
01:52:48,000 --> 01:52:50,717
it like unlocks all this like fearsome
power. is the most powerful thing in the

2103
01:52:50,800 --> 01:52:54,237
world is the key to everything.
And basically the the the moral lesson of

2104
01:52:54,320 --> 01:52:56,797
Lord of the Rings, which was, you know,
written by a guy who thought very deeply

2105
01:52:56,880 --> 01:53:00,557
about these things, is yeah, the ring
of power is inherently corrupting. The

2106
01:53:00,640 --> 01:53:02,797
characters at one point they're like,
Gandalf, just put on the ring and like

2107
01:53:02,880 --> 01:53:05,117
fix this, right? And he's like he like

2108
01:53:05,200 --> 01:53:07,677
he will not put the ring on even to like

2109
01:53:07,760 --> 01:53:12,157
end the war um because he knows that it
will corrupt him. And then you know the

2110
01:53:12,240 --> 01:53:16,397
charact as it starts the character
of Gollum is the result of you know like a

2111
01:53:16,480 --> 01:53:19,357
normal character who ultimately becomes
you know this incredibly corrupt and

2112
01:53:19,440 --> 01:53:22,477
deranged version of himself.
And so I mean I think you I think you said

2113
01:53:22,560 --> 01:53:25,837
something actually quite profound there
which is the ring of power is infinitely

2114
01:53:25,920 --> 01:53:28,477
tempting. You know the censorship
[clears throat] machine is infinitely

2115
01:53:28,560 --> 01:53:33,037
tempting if you if you have it like you
are going to use it. It's overwhelmingly

2116
01:53:33,120 --> 01:53:37,837
tempting because it's so powerful
and that it will corrupt you. And yeah I I

2117
01:53:37,920 --> 01:53:42,317
don't know whether any of these people
feel any of this today. they should. I

2118
01:53:42,400 --> 01:53:46,157
don't know if they do. Um, but yeah, you
go out five or 10 years later, you know,

2119
01:53:46,240 --> 01:53:49,357
you would hope that you would realize
that your soul has been corroded and you

2120
01:53:49,440 --> 01:53:52,157
probably started out thinking that you
were a patriot and you were trying to

2121
01:53:52,240 --> 01:53:55,277
defend democracy and you ended up being,
you know, extremely authoritarian and

2122
01:53:55,360 --> 01:53:57,197
anti-democratic and anti-western.

2123
01:53:57,280 --> 01:54:01,437
>> Can I ask you a a tough question here?

2124
01:54:01,520 --> 01:54:04,637
Staying on the ring of power, Elon is

2125
01:54:04,720 --> 01:54:09,880
quickly becoming the most
powerful human on Earth.

2126
01:54:10,560 --> 01:54:12,637
Uh, >> I'm not sure about that.

2127
01:54:12,720 --> 01:54:13,837
>> You don't you don't think he is?

2128
01:54:13,920 --> 01:54:17,847
>> Well, he doesn't have
the nukes. So, >> nukes.

2129
01:54:17,930 --> 01:54:20,797
[laughter] >> Yeah,
there's different definitions and

2130
01:54:20,880 --> 01:54:22,797
perspectives on power, right?

2131
01:54:22,880 --> 01:54:27,117
>> How can he and or Donald Trump

2132
01:54:27,200 --> 01:54:29,997
uh avoid the corrupting
aspects of this power?

2133
01:54:30,080 --> 01:54:31,197
>> I mean, I think
the danger is there with

2134
01:54:31,280 --> 01:54:34,957
power. It's just it's flat out there.
I I would say with Elon, I mean, we, you

2135
01:54:35,040 --> 01:54:37,117
know, we'll see. I would say
with Elon and I would say by the way

2136
01:54:37,200 --> 01:54:40,077
overwhelmingly I would say so far so good.
I'm extremely extremely thrilled

2137
01:54:40,160 --> 01:54:45,117
by what he's done on almost every front
um for like you know the last 30 years

2138
01:54:45,200 --> 01:54:47,677
but including all this stuff recently
like I think he's he's been a real hero

2139
01:54:47,760 --> 01:54:51,197
on a lot of topics where we needed
to see heroism but look I I would say I

2140
01:54:51,280 --> 01:54:54,157
guess the sort of case that he has
this level of power is some combination of

2141
01:54:54,240 --> 01:54:57,117
the money and the the pro and the
proximity to the president. Um and

2142
01:54:57,200 --> 01:55:00,077
obviously both of those are you
know are instruments of power. The

2143
01:55:00,160 --> 01:55:05,197
counter-argument to that is I do think
a lot of how Elon is causing change in the

2144
01:55:05,280 --> 01:55:07,757
world right now. I mean there's there's
the companies he's running directly

2145
01:55:07,840 --> 01:55:11,357
where I think he's doing very well and
we're investors in multiple of them and

2146
01:55:11,440 --> 01:55:15,837
doing very well. Um uh but I think like
a lot of the stuff that gets people mad

2147
01:55:15,920 --> 01:55:18,797
at him is like it's the social
and political stuff and it's you know it's

2148
01:55:18,880 --> 01:55:21,437
his statements and then it's the down
downstream effects of his statements.

2149
01:55:21,520 --> 01:55:24,077
So, like for example, it's, you know,
for the last couple weeks, it's been

2150
01:55:24,160 --> 01:55:27,277
him, you know, kind of weighing in on
this rape gang scandal, you know, this

2151
01:55:27,360 --> 01:55:31,917
rape organized child rape thing in the UK.
Um, and, you know, it's it's, you

2152
01:55:32,000 --> 01:55:34,477
know, it's it's actually it's
a preference cascade. It's one of these

2153
01:55:34,560 --> 01:55:36,957
things where people knew there was a
problem. They weren't willing to talk

2154
01:55:37,040 --> 01:55:41,437
about it. It kind of got suppressed.
Um, and then, um, Elon brought it up and

2155
01:55:41,520 --> 01:55:44,557
then all of a sudden there's now
in the UK this like massive explosion of

2156
01:55:44,640 --> 01:55:47,277
basically open conversation about it for
the first time. And you know, it's like

2157
01:55:47,360 --> 01:55:49,917
this catalyzing all of a sudden
everybody's kind of woken up and being

2158
01:55:50,000 --> 01:55:53,277
like, "Oh my god, you know, this is
really bad." And and and there will be

2159
01:55:53,360 --> 01:55:56,077
now, you know, I'm pretty sure pretty
pretty clearly big changes as a result.

2160
01:55:56,160 --> 01:55:59,517
So, and Elon was, you know, he played
the role of the boy who said the emperor

2161
01:55:59,600 --> 01:56:03,197
has no clothes, right? But but but here's
the thing. Here's my point. Like

2162
01:56:03,280 --> 01:56:06,317
he said it about something that was true,
right? And so had he said it about

2163
01:56:06,400 --> 01:56:09,997
something that was false, you know,
he would get no credit for it. He wouldn't

2164
01:56:10,080 --> 01:56:13,837
deserve any credit for it. But he said
something that was true. And by the way,

2165
01:56:13,920 --> 01:56:16,397
everybody over there instantly they were
like, "Oh yeah, he's right." right? Like

2166
01:56:16,480 --> 01:56:20,397
nobody like nobody seriously said
they're just arguing the details now. So

2167
01:56:20,480 --> 01:56:23,437
so number one it's like okay he says
true things and so it's like okay how

2168
01:56:23,520 --> 01:56:28,637
far put it this way like how worried
are we about somebody becoming corrupt by

2169
01:56:28,720 --> 01:56:32,077
virtue of their power being that they
get to speak the truth. And I guess I

2170
01:56:32,160 --> 01:56:34,237
would say especially in the last
decade of what we've been through where

2171
01:56:34,320 --> 01:56:36,557
everybody's been lying all the time
about everything I'd say I think we

2172
01:56:36,640 --> 01:56:39,917
should run this experiment as hard as we
can to get people to tell the truth. And

2173
01:56:40,000 --> 01:56:42,077
so uh I don't feel that bad about that.

2174
01:56:42,160 --> 01:56:46,557
And then the money side, you know, this
rapidly gets into the money and politics

2175
01:56:46,640 --> 01:56:49,597
question. And the money and politics
question is this very interesting

2176
01:56:49,680 --> 01:56:53,837
question because um it seems like
there's a clear-cut case that the more

2177
01:56:53,920 --> 01:56:57,837
money and politics, the worse things are
and the more corrupted the system is. Um

2178
01:56:57,920 --> 01:56:59,757
that was a very popular topic of public

2179
01:56:59,840 --> 01:57:04,877
conversation up until 2016 um when
Hillary outspent Trump 3 to1 and lost.

2180
01:57:04,960 --> 01:57:08,957
You'll notice that money and politics
has all almost vanished as a topic um in

2181
01:57:09,040 --> 01:57:12,557
the last eight years and and once again
Trump spent far you know Kamla raised

2182
01:57:12,640 --> 01:57:16,717
and spent 1.5 billion on top of what
Biden had spent. So they were they were

2183
01:57:16,800 --> 01:57:19,197
at I don't know something like three
three billion total and Trump I think

2184
01:57:19,280 --> 01:57:23,677
spent again like a third or a fourth
of that. Um and so the money and politics

2185
01:57:23,760 --> 01:57:27,037
kind of topic has kind of vanished from
the popular conversation the last eight

2186
01:57:27,120 --> 01:57:32,440
years. it has come back a little
bit now that Elon is spending,

2187
01:57:33,040 --> 01:57:34,397
>> you know, but but again,
like it's like,

2188
01:57:34,480 --> 01:57:37,357
okay, he's spending, but the data would
seem to indicate in the last at least

2189
01:57:37,440 --> 01:57:40,397
the last eight years that money doesn't
win the political battles. It's actually

2190
01:57:40,480 --> 01:57:43,277
like the voters actually have a voice
and they actually exercise it and they

2191
01:57:43,360 --> 01:57:46,157
don't just listen to ads. And so again,
there I would say like, yeah, clearly

2192
01:57:46,240 --> 01:57:48,957
there's some power there, but I don't
know if it's like I don't know if it's

2193
01:57:49,040 --> 01:57:52,477
some like I don't know if it's some
weapon that he can just like turn on and

2194
01:57:52,560 --> 01:57:55,277
and use in a definitive way. And I don't

2195
01:57:55,360 --> 01:57:59,837
know if there's parallels there, but I
could also say just on a human level, he

2196
01:57:59,920 --> 01:58:04,317
has a good heart and I interact with
a lot of powerful people and that's not

2197
01:58:04,400 --> 01:58:06,797
always the case. So that's a good thing

2198
01:58:06,880 --> 01:58:11,597
there. If we if we can draw parallels
to the Hobbit or whatever, [laughter]

2199
01:58:11,680 --> 01:58:13,677
who gets to put on the ring? >> Froto.

2200
01:58:13,760 --> 01:58:15,757
>> Froto. Yeah. >> Yeah.
I mean, maybe one of the lessons

2201
01:58:15,840 --> 01:58:18,077
of Lord of the Rings, right, is even
even Froto would have been, you know,

2202
01:58:18,160 --> 01:58:21,517
even Froto would have been corrupted,
right? But, you know, nevertheless,

2203
01:58:21,600 --> 01:58:24,317
>> you had somebody who could do what
it took at the at the time. The the thing

2204
01:58:24,400 --> 01:58:27,597
that I find just so amazing about the Elon
phenomenon and all the critiques is

2205
01:58:27,680 --> 01:58:30,877
um you know the one thing that everybody
in our societies universally agrees on

2206
01:58:30,960 --> 01:58:35,517
because of our sort of our our
postChristian egalitarian. So you know

2207
01:58:35,600 --> 01:58:39,437
we live in sort of this post secularized
Christian context in the west now and

2208
01:58:39,520 --> 01:58:43,037
it's you we you know we we consider
Christianity kind of you know backwards

2209
01:58:43,120 --> 01:58:44,397
but we still believe essentially all the

2210
01:58:44,480 --> 01:58:46,477
same things. We just dress them up in in

2211
01:58:46,560 --> 01:58:51,517
in sort of fake science. Um um so the
the one thing that we're all told we're

2212
01:58:51,600 --> 01:58:53,917
all taught from from early is that the
best people in the world are the people

2213
01:58:54,000 --> 01:58:57,597
who care about all of humanity right
u and we venerate you know all of our

2214
01:58:57,680 --> 01:58:59,997
figures are people who care about all
of you know Jesus cared about all of

2215
01:59:00,080 --> 01:59:02,957
humanity Gandhi cared about all
of humanity Martin Luther King cared about

2216
01:59:03,040 --> 01:59:06,237
all of humanity like this univer
the person who cares the most about

2217
01:59:06,320 --> 01:59:10,957
everybody and and with Elon you have
a guy who literally like is he's lit and

2218
01:59:11,040 --> 01:59:13,837
he he talks about this constantly and he
talks about exactly the same in private

2219
01:59:13,920 --> 01:59:17,837
he's literally he is operating on behalf
of all of humanity to try to get us to,

2220
01:59:17,920 --> 01:59:20,557
you know, he goes through to get us to be
multilanetary civilization so that we

2221
01:59:20,640 --> 01:59:23,197
can survive a strike at any one planet
so that we can extend the light of human

2222
01:59:23,280 --> 01:59:25,597
consciousness into the world and,
you know, into the universe and have it

2223
01:59:25,680 --> 01:59:28,717
persist, you know, and the good
of the whole thing. And like literally the

2224
01:59:28,800 --> 01:59:31,517
critique is, yeah, we want you to care
about all of humanity, but not like

2225
01:59:31,600 --> 01:59:33,757
that. [laughter]

2226
01:59:33,840 --> 01:59:38,877
>> Yeah. All the critics, all the all the
surface turmoil, all of the critics will

2227
01:59:38,960 --> 01:59:42,237
be forgotten. >> Yeah,
I think that's Yeah, that's clear.

2228
01:59:42,320 --> 01:59:45,197
You said that uh we always end up being

2229
01:59:45,280 --> 01:59:47,917
ruled by the elites of some kind. Can

2230
01:59:48,000 --> 01:59:50,557
you explain this law, this idea?

2231
01:59:50,640 --> 01:59:54,797
>> So, this comes from a Italian political
philosopher from about 100 years ago

2232
01:59:54,880 --> 01:59:57,277
named Robert I'm going to mangle the let

2233
01:59:57,360 --> 02:00:00,397
you pronounce the Italian uh Michelle's

2234
02:00:00,480 --> 02:00:05,037
um or Michael's. Um and then it was I
learned about it through a a famous book

2235
02:00:05,120 --> 02:00:07,997
on on politics. probably the best book
on politics written in the 20th century

2236
02:00:08,080 --> 02:00:11,997
called the Machavelians by this guy
James Bernham um who has had a big

2237
02:00:12,080 --> 02:00:15,277
impact on me but um in the Machavelians
he resurrects what he calls this the

2238
02:00:15,360 --> 02:00:18,157
sort of Italian realist school of of
political philosophy from the from the

2239
02:00:18,240 --> 02:00:21,437
tens and 20s um and these were people
to be clear this was not like a Mousolini

2240
02:00:21,520 --> 02:00:24,877
thing these were people who were trying
to understand the actual mechanics of

2241
02:00:24,960 --> 02:00:30,237
how politics actually works so to get
to the actual sort of mechanical substance

2242
02:00:30,320 --> 02:00:34,397
of like how the political machine
operates and um this guy Michelle's had

2243
02:00:34,480 --> 02:00:36,157
this concept ended up with called the

2244
02:00:36,240 --> 02:00:41,517
iron law of oligarchy. Um, and so what
the iron law of oligarchy and let me

2245
02:00:41,600 --> 02:00:43,917
take a step back to say what he meant
by oligarchy because it has multiple

2246
02:00:44,000 --> 02:00:46,717
meanings. So basically in classic
political theory there's basically three

2247
02:00:46,800 --> 02:00:51,597
forms of government at core. There's
democracy which is rule of many. There's

2248
02:00:51,680 --> 02:00:54,717
oligarchy which is rule of the few.
Um, and there's monarchy which is rule of

2249
02:00:54,800 --> 02:00:57,997
the one. And you can just use that as
a general framework of any government

2250
02:00:58,080 --> 02:01:00,317
you're going to be under is going
to be one of those. Just a mechanical

2251
02:01:00,400 --> 02:01:03,437
observation without even saying which
one's good or bad. Just a structural

2252
02:01:03,520 --> 02:01:07,117
observation. Um, and so the question
that Michelle's asked was like, is there

2253
02:01:07,200 --> 02:01:09,597
such a thing as democracy? Like,
is there actually such a thing as

2254
02:01:09,680 --> 02:01:13,837
democracy? Is is there ever actually
like direct direct government? And what

2255
02:01:13,920 --> 02:01:16,957
he did was he mounted this sort
of incredible historical uh exploration of

2256
02:01:17,040 --> 02:01:20,477
whether democracies had ever existed
in the world. And the answer basically is

2257
02:01:20,560 --> 02:01:23,597
almost never. And we could talk about
that. But the other thing he did was he

2258
02:01:23,680 --> 02:01:28,077
he sought out the most democratic uh
private organization in the world that

2259
02:01:28,160 --> 02:01:31,197
he could find at that point which he
concluded was some basically communist

2260
02:01:31,280 --> 02:01:34,637
German autoworkers union that was like
wholly devoted to the workers of the

2261
02:01:34,720 --> 02:01:37,917
world uniting you know back when that
was like the hot thing and he went in

2262
02:01:38,000 --> 02:01:40,557
there and he's like okay this is the
organization out of all organizations on

2263
02:01:40,640 --> 02:01:43,757
planet earth that must be operating as
a as as a direct democracy and he went in

2264
02:01:43,840 --> 02:01:46,637
there and he's like oh nope there's
a leadership class you know there's like

2265
02:01:46,720 --> 02:01:49,117
six guys at the top and they
control everything [laughter]

2266
02:01:49,200 --> 02:01:52,397
and they lead the rest of the membership
along you know by the nose which is of

2267
02:01:52,480 --> 02:01:56,317
course the story of every union. The story
of every union is always the story

2268
02:01:56,400 --> 02:01:58,557
of, you know, there's there's a Jimmy
Hoffa in there, you know, kind of

2269
02:01:58,640 --> 02:02:01,357
running the thing. You know, we just saw
that with the doc workers union, right?

2270
02:02:01,440 --> 02:02:05,917
Like, you know, there's a guy. Um,
and he's in charge. And by the way, the

2271
02:02:06,000 --> 02:02:09,837
number two is his son, right?
Like that's not like a, you know, an

2272
02:02:09,920 --> 02:02:13,357
accident, right? So, the iron law
oligarchy basically says democracy is

2273
02:02:13,440 --> 02:02:15,357
fake. Um, there's always a ruling class.

2274
02:02:15,440 --> 02:02:17,917
There's always a ruling elite
structurally. And he said the reason for

2275
02:02:18,000 --> 02:02:21,437
that is because the masses can't
organize, right? what what's the

2276
02:02:21,520 --> 02:02:25,037
fundamental problem that whether the mass
is 25,000 people in a union or 250

2277
02:02:25,120 --> 02:02:28,157
million people in a country the masses
can't organize the majority cannot

2278
02:02:28,240 --> 02:02:32,317
organize only a minority can organize um
and to be effective in politics you must

2279
02:02:32,400 --> 02:02:37,117
organize um and therefore every
political structure in human history has

2280
02:02:37,200 --> 02:02:39,277
been some form of a small organized

2281
02:02:39,360 --> 02:02:40,957
elite ruling a large and dispersed

2282
02:02:41,040 --> 02:02:45,197
majority every single one. Um the Greeks

2283
02:02:45,280 --> 02:02:49,037
and the Florentines had brief
experiments in direct democracy and they

2284
02:02:49,120 --> 02:02:53,197
were total disasters. Uh in Florence,
I forget the name of it. It was called

2285
02:02:53,280 --> 02:02:56,157
like the workers revolt or something
like that. There was like a 2-year

2286
02:02:56,240 --> 02:02:59,837
period um where they basically
experimented with direct democracy

2287
02:02:59,920 --> 02:03:02,957
during the Renaissance and it was a
complete disaster and they never tried

2288
02:03:03,040 --> 02:03:07,757
it again. In the state of California, we
have our own experiment on this which is

2289
02:03:07,840 --> 02:03:11,677
the proposition system which is an
overlay on top of the legislature and

2290
02:03:11,760 --> 02:03:14,397
it, you know, anybody who looks at it
for two seconds concludes it's been a

2291
02:03:14,480 --> 02:03:17,357
complete disaster. It's just
a catastrophe. Um, and it's caused

2292
02:03:17,440 --> 02:03:20,877
enormous damage to the state.
And so basically the the the basically the

2293
02:03:20,960 --> 02:03:24,317
presumption that we are in a democracy
is just sort of by definition fake. Now

2294
02:03:24,400 --> 02:03:27,117
good news for the US. It turns out
the founders understood this and so of

2295
02:03:27,200 --> 02:03:29,757
course they didn't give us a direct
democracy. They gave us a representative

2296
02:03:29,840 --> 02:03:32,717
democracy, right? Right. And so they
they they built the oligarchy into the

2297
02:03:32,800 --> 02:03:35,357
system in the form of Congress
and the and the executive branch and the

2298
02:03:35,440 --> 02:03:39,917
judicial branch. Um but but so anyway,
so as a consequence, democracy is always

2299
02:03:40,000 --> 02:03:43,677
everywhere fake. There is always
a ruling elite. Um and and basically the

2300
02:03:43,760 --> 02:03:47,197
the the the lesson of the Machavelians
is you can deny that if you want, but

2301
02:03:47,280 --> 02:03:50,477
you're fooling yourself. Um the way
to actually think about how to make a

2302
02:03:50,560 --> 02:03:54,157
system work and maintain any sort
of shred of freedom um is to actually

2303
02:03:54,240 --> 02:03:57,197
understand that that is actually what's
happening. And uh lucky for us, the

2304
02:03:57,280 --> 02:04:00,157
Vander saw this and

2305
02:04:00,240 --> 02:04:02,557
figured out a way to given that there's

2306
02:04:02,640 --> 02:04:07,357
going to be a ruling elite,
how to create a balance of power

2307
02:04:07,440 --> 02:04:09,997
among that elite. Yes.
So it doesn't get out of hand.

2308
02:04:10,080 --> 02:04:12,957
>> And it was very clever, right? And you
know, some of this was based on earlier

2309
02:04:13,040 --> 02:04:15,357
experiments. Some of this, by the way,
you know, they these these were very

2310
02:04:15,440 --> 02:04:17,917
very smart people, right? And so they
they knew tremendous amounts of like

2311
02:04:18,000 --> 02:04:21,037
Greek and Roman history. They knew the
Renaissance history. You know, they the

2312
02:04:21,120 --> 02:04:23,997
Federalist papers, they argued this at
great length. You can read it all. um

2313
02:04:24,080 --> 02:04:27,117
you know they they they they ran like
a one of the best seminars in world

2314
02:04:27,200 --> 02:04:30,317
history trying to figure this out um and
they they went through all this and yeah

2315
02:04:30,400 --> 02:04:32,637
and so they they thought through it
very carefully but just I'll give you an

2316
02:04:32,720 --> 02:04:36,477
example which continues to be a hot
topic so you know one way they did it is

2317
02:04:36,560 --> 02:04:39,997
through the three branches of government
right executive legislative and judicial

2318
02:04:40,080 --> 02:04:44,157
um sort of balance of powers but the
other way they did it was they sort of

2319
02:04:44,240 --> 02:04:47,997
echoing what had been done earlier I
think in the UK parliament um uh they

2320
02:04:48,080 --> 02:04:51,357
created the two different bodies of the
legislature right and so the you know

2321
02:04:51,440 --> 02:04:54,477
the house and the senate and as you know
the the house of portion on the basis of

2322
02:04:54,560 --> 02:04:56,317
population and the Senate is not right.

2323
02:04:56,400 --> 02:05:00,397
Uh the small states have just as many
senators as the big states. Um and then

2324
02:05:00,480 --> 02:05:03,117
they made the deliberate decision
to have the House get reelected every two

2325
02:05:03,200 --> 02:05:05,837
years to make it very responsive to
the will of the people and they made the

2326
02:05:05,920 --> 02:05:09,117
decision to have the Senate get
re-elected every six years so that it

2327
02:05:09,200 --> 02:05:13,197
had more buffer from the passions of
the moment. Um but what's interesting is

2328
02:05:13,280 --> 02:05:16,557
they didn't choose one or the other,
right? They did them both. And then to

2329
02:05:16,640 --> 02:05:19,197
to get legislation passed, you have
to get through both of them. And so they

2330
02:05:19,280 --> 02:05:23,677
they built in like a second layer
of checks and balances. And then there's a

2331
02:05:23,760 --> 02:05:26,317
thousand observations we could make
about like how well the system is

2332
02:05:26,400 --> 02:05:29,997
working today and like how much does it
live up to the ideal and how much are we

2333
02:05:30,080 --> 02:05:32,957
actually complying with the constitution
and there's lots of you know there's

2334
02:05:33,040 --> 02:05:36,797
lots of open questions there but you
know this system has survived for coming

2335
02:05:36,880 --> 02:05:41,037
on 250 years with a country that has
been spectacularly successful that I

2336
02:05:41,120 --> 02:05:43,677
don't think at least you know I don't
think any of us would trade the system

2337
02:05:43,760 --> 02:05:46,717
for any other one and so it's yeah
one of the great all-time achievements.

2338
02:05:46,800 --> 02:05:50,317
Yeah, it's incredible. And we should say
they were all pretty young relative to

2339
02:05:50,400 --> 02:05:54,237
our current set of leaders,
>> many in their 20s at the time and like

2340
02:05:54,320 --> 02:05:56,717
super geniuses. This is one of those
things where it's just like, all right,

2341
02:05:56,800 --> 02:05:59,517
something happened where there was a
group of people where, you know, nobody

2342
02:05:59,600 --> 02:06:02,877
ever tested their IQs, but like these
are Einsteins of politics. Yeah. An

2343
02:06:02,960 --> 02:06:05,917
amazing thing. But anyway, I I I just I
go through all that, which is they were

2344
02:06:06,000 --> 02:06:07,837
very keen students of the actual

2345
02:06:07,920 --> 02:06:12,957
mechanical practice of democracy, not
fixated on what was desirable. They were

2346
02:06:13,040 --> 02:06:15,837
incredibly focused on what would
actually work, which is, you know, I

2347
02:06:15,920 --> 02:06:17,837
think the the way to think
about these things.

2348
02:06:17,920 --> 02:06:22,237
>> They were engineers of sort,
not the fuzzy humanity students of sort.

2349
02:06:22,320 --> 02:06:24,877
>> They were shape rotators,
not word cells.

2350
02:06:24,960 --> 02:06:29,597
>> I [laughter] remember that. Wow.
That meme came and went. I think you were

2351
02:06:29,680 --> 02:06:31,917
central to that.
You're central to a lot of memes.

2352
02:06:32,000 --> 02:06:35,197
>> I was. >> You're You're the meme
dealer and the meme popularizer.

2353
02:06:35,280 --> 02:06:37,357
>> That's true. >> That meme
I get some credit for. And

2354
02:06:37,440 --> 02:06:39,677
then the current thing is the other one
I get some credit for. I don't know that

2355
02:06:39,760 --> 02:06:42,637
I invented either one,
but um I I popularized them.

2356
02:06:42,720 --> 02:06:45,917
>> Take credit and run with it.

2357
02:06:46,000 --> 02:06:49,117
>> Uh if we can just
linger on the McKavalians,

2358
02:06:49,200 --> 02:06:51,597
it's a it's a study of power and power

2359
02:06:51,680 --> 02:06:53,997
dynamics like you mentioned looking at

2360
02:06:54,080 --> 02:06:57,197
the actual reality of the machinery of

2361
02:06:57,280 --> 02:07:00,077
power. from everything you've seen now

2362
02:07:00,160 --> 02:07:04,877
in government but also in companies what
are some interesting things you can sort

2363
02:07:04,960 --> 02:07:08,877
of continue to say about the dynamics
of power the jostling for power that

2364
02:07:08,960 --> 02:07:13,437
happens inside these institutions yeah
so it a lot of it you know we we already

2365
02:07:13,520 --> 02:07:16,157
talked about this a bit with the
universities which is you can apply a

2366
02:07:16,240 --> 02:07:19,677
Machavevelian style lens to the it's why
I posed the question to you that I did

2367
02:07:19,760 --> 02:07:24,397
which is okay who runs the university
the trustees the administration the

2368
02:07:24,480 --> 02:07:27,117
students or the faculty and and you
know the answer the true answer is some

2369
02:07:27,200 --> 02:07:31,277
combination of the three of the four
plus the donors by the way plus the

2370
02:07:31,360 --> 02:07:34,557
government plus the press etc right
and so there you know there's there's a

2371
02:07:34,640 --> 02:07:38,477
mechanical interpretation of that I mean
companies operate under the exact same

2372
02:07:38,560 --> 02:07:42,477
you know set of questions who runs
a company you know the CEO but like the

2373
02:07:42,560 --> 02:07:45,757
CEO runs the company basically up to the
day that either the shareholders or the

2374
02:07:45,840 --> 02:07:48,957
management team revolt if
the shareholders revolt it's very hard for

2375
02:07:49,040 --> 02:07:51,597
the CEO to stay in the seat if
the management team revolts it's very hard

2376
02:07:51,680 --> 02:07:54,797
for the CEO to stay in the seat by the
way if the employees revolt it's also

2377
02:07:54,880 --> 02:07:58,237
hard to stay in the seat by the way if
the New York Times comes at you, it's

2378
02:07:58,320 --> 02:08:01,117
also very hard to stay in the seat.
If the Senate comes at you, it's very hard

2379
02:08:01,200 --> 02:08:05,997
to stay in the seat. So, you know, like
a a a a a reductionist version of this

2380
02:08:06,080 --> 02:08:09,597
that is a good shortorthhand
is who can get who fired,

2381
02:08:09,680 --> 02:08:13,197
you know, so so who has more power?
You know, the the newspaper columnist who

2382
02:08:13,280 --> 02:08:16,957
makes, you know, $200,000 a year or the
CEO who makes, you know, $200 million a

2383
02:08:17,040 --> 02:08:20,237
year. And it's like, well, I know for
sure that the columnist can get the CEO

2384
02:08:20,320 --> 02:08:22,077
fired. I've seen that happen before. I

2385
02:08:22,160 --> 02:08:23,917
have yet to see a CEO get a columnist

2386
02:08:24,000 --> 02:08:27,437
fired. Did anyone ever get fired from

2387
02:08:27,520 --> 02:08:29,517
the Bill Aman

2388
02:08:29,600 --> 02:08:35,117
assault on journalism? So,
Bill Bill like really showed the [__] that

2389
02:08:35,200 --> 02:08:37,597
happens in journalism. >> No,
cuz what happens is they they they

2390
02:08:37,680 --> 02:08:40,557
wear it with a I mean they and I would
say to their credit they wear it as a

2391
02:08:40,640 --> 02:08:43,677
badge of honor and then to their shame
they wear it as a badge of honor, right?

2392
02:08:43,760 --> 02:08:47,357
Which is if you know if they're
doing the right thing then they are

2393
02:08:47,440 --> 02:08:50,797
justifiably priding themselves for
standing up under pressure. But it also

2394
02:08:50,880 --> 02:08:54,317
means that they can't respond
to legitimate criticism and you know

2395
02:08:54,400 --> 02:08:56,157
They're obviously terrible at that now.

2396
02:08:56,240 --> 02:09:00,077
Um, as I recall, he went straight
to the CEO of I think Ashel Springer

2397
02:09:00,160 --> 02:09:03,757
>> that owns Insider and I, you know,
and I I happen to know the CEO and I think

2398
02:09:03,840 --> 02:09:06,477
he's quite a good CEO, but like I like
Well, there's a good example. Does the

2399
02:09:06,560 --> 02:09:11,277
CEO of Axel Springer run his own company,
>> right? Like, well, there's a fascin

2400
02:09:11,360 --> 02:09:13,997
Okay, so there's a fascinating thing
playing out right now. Not to dwell on

2401
02:09:14,080 --> 02:09:18,317
these fires. Um, but um, it's a you see
the pressure reveals things, right? And

2402
02:09:18,400 --> 02:09:21,597
so if you've been watching what's
happened with the LA Times recently, so

2403
02:09:21,680 --> 02:09:24,717
so this guy biotech entrepreneur buys
the LA Times like whatever 8 years ago.

2404
02:09:24,800 --> 02:09:29,117
Um it is just like the most radical
social revolutionary thing you can

2405
02:09:29,200 --> 02:09:32,557
possibly imagine. It endorses every
crazy leftwing radical you can imagine.

2406
02:09:32,640 --> 02:09:36,317
It endorses Karen Bass. It endorses
Gavin Newsome. It's just like an litany

2407
02:09:36,400 --> 02:09:39,357
of all the people who are currently
burning the city to the ground. It's

2408
02:09:39,440 --> 02:09:42,637
just like endorsed every single bad
person every step of the way. Um he's

2409
02:09:42,720 --> 02:09:46,397
owned it the entire time. you know,
he put his foot down right before for the

2410
02:09:46,480 --> 02:09:48,877
first time, I think, put his foot down
right before the November election and

2411
02:09:48,960 --> 02:09:51,517
said, "We're not we're getting he said
we're going to get out of this thing

2412
02:09:51,600 --> 02:09:53,357
where we just always endorse
the Democrat and we said we're not

2413
02:09:53,440 --> 02:09:55,757
endorsing." I think he said, "We're not
endorsing for the for the presidency."

2414
02:09:55,840 --> 02:09:57,517
And like the paper flipped out, right?

2415
02:09:57,600 --> 02:10:01,117
It's like our billionaire backer who and I
don't know what he spends, but like he

2416
02:10:01,200 --> 02:10:04,637
must be burning 50 or $100 million
a year out of his pocket to keep this

2417
02:10:04,720 --> 02:10:09,677
thing running. He paid 500 million for it,
which is amazing. U back when people

2418
02:10:09,760 --> 02:10:13,917
still thought these things [laughter]
were businesses. Um, and then he's

2419
02:10:14,000 --> 02:10:17,917
probably burned another 500 million over
the last decade keeping it running. And

2420
02:10:18,000 --> 02:10:21,117
he burns probably another 50 100 million
a year to do this. And the journalists

2421
02:10:21,200 --> 02:10:25,197
at the LA Times hate him with the fury
of a thousand sons. Like they just like

2422
02:10:25,280 --> 02:10:28,557
absolutely freaking despise him.
And they have been like attacking him. And

2423
02:10:28,640 --> 02:10:30,957
you know the ones that can get jobs
elsewhere quit and do it. And the rest

2424
02:10:31,040 --> 02:10:33,357
just stay and say the worst, you know,
most horrible things about him. And they

2425
02:10:33,440 --> 02:10:37,917
want to constantly run these stories
attacking him. Um, and so he has had

2426
02:10:38,000 --> 02:10:41,117
this reaction that a lot of people in LA
LA are having right now to to this fire

2427
02:10:41,200 --> 02:10:44,397
and to this just like incredibly vivid
collapse of leadership and all these

2428
02:10:44,480 --> 02:10:48,877
people that he had his paper head
endorsed are just disastrous. Um, and he

2429
02:10:48,960 --> 02:10:53,357
he's on this tour. He's basically just
he's decided he's he's decided to be the

2430
02:10:53,440 --> 02:10:56,237
the boy who says the emperor has no
clothes, but he's doing it to his own

2431
02:10:56,320 --> 02:10:59,357
newspaper. Very smart guy. He's on a
press tour and he's basically saying,

2432
02:10:59,440 --> 02:11:02,557
"Yeah, we we yes, we did all that and we
endorsed all these people and it was a

2433
02:11:02,640 --> 02:11:05,437
huge mistake and we're going
to completely change." and his paper is,

2434
02:11:05,520 --> 02:11:07,837
you know, in a complete internal revolt.

2435
02:11:07,920 --> 02:11:10,157
But I go through it, which is, okay,
now we have a very interesting question,

2436
02:11:10,240 --> 02:11:12,877
which is who runs the LA Times because

2437
02:11:12,960 --> 02:11:17,277
for the last eight years,
it hasn't been him. [laughter]

2438
02:11:17,360 --> 02:11:21,357
It it's been the reporters. Now,
for the first time, the owner is

2439
02:11:21,440 --> 02:11:23,837
showing up saying, "Oh, no. I'm actually
in charge." And the reporters are

2440
02:11:23,920 --> 02:11:27,277
saying, "No, you're not." And like like

2441
02:11:27,360 --> 02:11:30,877
it is freaking on. And so, again, if
the Machavelian's mindset on this is like,

2442
02:11:30,960 --> 02:11:35,117
"Okay, how is power actually exercised
here? Can can can a guy who's like even

2443
02:11:35,200 --> 02:11:38,237
super rich and super powerful, who even
owns his own newspaper, can he stand up

2444
02:11:38,320 --> 02:11:41,917
to a full-scale assault, not only
by his own reporters, but by every other

2445
02:11:42,000 --> 02:11:45,437
journalism outlet who also
now thinks he's the antichrist.

2446
02:11:45,520 --> 02:11:49,517
>> And he is trying to exercise power by
speaking out publicly. And so that's the

2447
02:11:49,600 --> 02:11:52,397
game of power there >> and firing
people and you know he has

2448
02:11:52,480 --> 02:11:53,917
removed people and he has set new rules.

2449
02:11:54,000 --> 02:11:57,117
I mean he he is he is now I think
at long I think he's saying he's now at

2450
02:11:57,200 --> 02:12:00,317
long last actually exercising
prerogatives of an owner of a business

2451
02:12:00,400 --> 02:12:02,957
which is to decide on the policies
and staffing of the business. there are

2452
02:12:03,040 --> 02:12:05,597
certain other owners of these
publications that are doing similar

2453
02:12:05,680 --> 02:12:08,957
things right now. Um, he's the one I
don't know, so he's the one I can talk

2454
02:12:09,040 --> 02:12:12,477
about. Um, but there are others that are
going through the same thing right now.

2455
02:12:12,560 --> 02:12:16,317
Um, and I think it's a really
interesting open question like you know

2456
02:12:16,400 --> 02:12:19,277
in a fight between the employees and
the employer. Like it's not crystal clear

2457
02:12:19,360 --> 02:12:20,797
that the employer wins that one.

2458
02:12:20,880 --> 02:12:23,837
>> And just to stay on journalism for
a second, we mentioned Bill Aman. I just

2459
02:12:23,920 --> 02:12:29,037
want to say put him in the category we
mentioned before of a really courageous

2460
02:12:29,120 --> 02:12:30,637
person. I don't think I've ever seen

2461
02:12:30,720 --> 02:12:34,157
anybody so fearless

2462
02:12:34,240 --> 02:12:36,557
in going after,

2463
02:12:36,640 --> 02:12:38,237
you know, in following what he believes

2464
02:12:38,320 --> 02:12:42,077
in publicly. That's courage. That that

2465
02:12:42,160 --> 02:12:46,637
that several things he's done publicly
has been really inspiring. Just being

2466
02:12:46,720 --> 02:12:49,197
courageous. What do you think
is like the most impressive example

2467
02:12:49,280 --> 02:12:51,917
>> where he went after a journalist

2468
02:12:52,000 --> 02:12:55,357
>> whose whole incentive is to like I mean

2469
02:12:55,440 --> 02:12:57,997
it's uh it's like sticking your like

2470
02:12:58,080 --> 02:13:02,557
kicking the beehive or whatever.
You know what's going to follow

2471
02:13:02,640 --> 02:13:06,797
>> and to do that. I mean, that's why
it's difficult to challenge journalistic

2472
02:13:06,880 --> 02:13:10,637
organizations because they're going to,
you know, there's just so many

2473
02:13:10,720 --> 02:13:13,837
mechanisms they use, including like
writing articles and get cited by

2474
02:13:13,920 --> 02:13:15,917
Wikipedia, then drive the narrative and

2475
02:13:16,000 --> 02:13:17,437
then they can get you fired, all this

2476
02:13:17,520 --> 02:13:21,037
kind of stuff. Bill Aman like a bad mfer

2477
02:13:21,120 --> 02:13:25,517
just just tweets these essays and just

2478
02:13:25,600 --> 02:13:31,037
goes after them uh legally and also
in the public eye and just I I don't know

2479
02:13:31,120 --> 02:13:32,397
that was truly inspiring. And there's

2480
02:13:32,480 --> 02:13:35,437
not many people like that out uh in

2481
02:13:35,520 --> 02:13:40,557
public. And I hopefully that inspires
not just me but many others to be like

2482
02:13:40,640 --> 02:13:44,397
to be courageous themselves.
>> Did you know of him before he started

2483
02:13:44,480 --> 02:13:47,597
doing this in public? >> I knew
of Ner his his wife. She's this

2484
02:13:47,680 --> 02:13:50,957
brilliant researcher and scientist.
And so I I admire her, look up to her. I

2485
02:13:51,040 --> 02:13:53,277
think she's amazing. >> Well,
the reason I asked if you knew

2486
02:13:53,360 --> 02:13:56,477
about Bill is because a lot of people
had not heard of him before, especially

2487
02:13:56,560 --> 02:13:59,437
like before October 7th and before some
of the campaigns he's been running since

2488
02:13:59,520 --> 02:14:03,197
in public, but um and with Harvard and so
forth. But um he was very well known

2489
02:14:03,280 --> 02:14:07,277
in the in the investment world before
before that. So uh he was a famous um he

2490
02:14:07,360 --> 02:14:11,117
was a so-called acti activist investor
for you know very very successful and

2491
02:14:11,200 --> 02:14:15,517
very widely respected for probably 30
years before before before now. And and

2492
02:14:15,600 --> 02:14:18,077
I bring that up because it it turns
out they weren't [clears throat] for the

2493
02:14:18,160 --> 02:14:20,557
most part battles that happened in kind
of full public view. They weren't

2494
02:14:20,640 --> 02:14:23,917
national stories. But in the business
and investing world it the activist

2495
02:14:24,000 --> 02:14:27,277
investor is a very it's like in the movie
Taken. It's a very specific set of

2496
02:14:27,360 --> 02:14:32,317
skills. um >> yeah, [laughter] >>
on how to like really take control of

2497
02:14:32,400 --> 02:14:36,157
situations um and how to wreck
the people who you're going up against. Um

2498
02:14:36,240 --> 02:14:41,117
and um just and there's lot there's been
controversy over the years on this topic

2499
02:14:41,200 --> 02:14:44,317
and there's too much detail to go into
but the the defensive activist investing

2500
02:14:44,400 --> 02:14:47,997
which I think is valid is um you know
these are the guys who basically go in

2501
02:14:48,080 --> 02:14:51,277
and take stakes in companies that are
being poorly managed or underoptimized

2502
02:14:51,360 --> 02:14:54,397
and and and and then generally what
that means is at least the theory is that

2503
02:14:54,480 --> 02:14:59,197
means the existing management has become
entrenched and lazy mediocre you know

2504
02:14:59,280 --> 02:15:02,797
whatever not you know responding
to the needs of the shareholders often not

2505
02:15:02,880 --> 02:15:07,037
responding to the customers um
And the activists basically go in with a

2506
02:15:07,120 --> 02:15:10,397
minority position and then they rally
support among other investors who are

2507
02:15:10,480 --> 02:15:13,837
not activists. Um and then they
basically show up and they force change.

2508
02:15:13,920 --> 02:15:17,597
Um but they are the aggressive version
of this. Um and I've been on the I've

2509
02:15:17,680 --> 02:15:20,317
been involved in companies that have
been on the receiving end of these.

2510
02:15:20,400 --> 02:15:24,157
>> Um where it is amazing how much
somebody like that can exert pressure on

2511
02:15:24,240 --> 02:15:27,757
situations even when they don't have
formal control. So So it's another it

2512
02:15:27,840 --> 02:15:31,037
would be another chess piece on the
mechanical board of kind of how power

2513
02:15:31,120 --> 02:15:33,437
gets exercised. And basically what
happens is the effective analysts a

2514
02:15:33,520 --> 02:15:36,237
large amount of the time they end up
taking they end up taking over control

2515
02:15:36,320 --> 02:15:39,597
of companies even though they never own
more than like 5% of the stock. And so

2516
02:15:39,680 --> 02:15:42,317
anyway, so it turns out with Bill's been
it's such a fascinating case because he

2517
02:15:42,400 --> 02:15:44,637
has that like complete skill set.

2518
02:15:44,720 --> 02:15:49,437
>> Um and he has now decided to bring
it to bear in areas that are not just

2519
02:15:49,520 --> 02:15:53,117
companies. And two interesting things
for that. One is you know some of these

2520
02:15:53,200 --> 02:15:55,517
places you know and some of these
battles are still ongoing. But number

2521
02:15:55,600 --> 02:15:59,357
one, like a lot of people who run
universities or newspapers are not used

2522
02:15:59,440 --> 02:16:01,437
to being up against somebody like this.

2523
02:16:01,520 --> 02:16:04,157
U and by the way, also now with
infinitely deep pockets and lots of

2524
02:16:04,240 --> 02:16:06,957
experience in courtrooms and all the
things that kind of go with that. Um but

2525
02:16:07,040 --> 02:16:11,117
the other is through example,
he is teaching a lot of the rest of us the

2526
02:16:11,200 --> 02:16:15,517
activist playbook like in real time.
And so the Liam Niss skill set is getting

2527
02:16:15,600 --> 02:16:19,677
more broadly diffused um just by being
able to watch and learn from him. So I I

2528
02:16:19,760 --> 02:16:22,557
think he I think he's having a you know
I would put him up there with Elon in

2529
02:16:22,640 --> 02:16:25,677
terms of somebody who's really
affecting how all this is playing out.

2530
02:16:25,760 --> 02:16:27,597
>> But even skill set
aside just courage and

2531
02:16:27,680 --> 02:16:30,797
>> Yes. including by the way c
courage to go outside of his own zone.

2532
02:16:30,880 --> 02:16:33,117
>> Yeah. >> Right.
Um you know because like he

2533
02:16:33,200 --> 02:16:35,677
hasn't I'll give you an example like
my my firm venture capital firm we have

2534
02:16:35,760 --> 02:16:39,357
LPs. There are things that I feel like
I can't do or say because I feel like I

2535
02:16:39,440 --> 02:16:42,557
would be bringing you know I would
be bringing embarrassment or other

2536
02:16:42,640 --> 02:16:45,837
consequences to our LPs. He has
investors also where he worries about

2537
02:16:45,920 --> 02:16:48,397
that. Um, and so his so a couple things.

2538
02:16:48,480 --> 02:16:51,837
One is his willingness to go out a bit
and risk his relationship with his own

2539
02:16:51,920 --> 02:16:55,197
investors. But I will tell you the other
thing which is his investors I know this

2540
02:16:55,280 --> 02:16:58,957
for a fact. His investors have been
remarkably supportive of him doing that

2541
02:16:59,040 --> 02:17:04,317
because as it turns out a lot of them
actually agree with him. Um, and so he's

2542
02:17:04,400 --> 02:17:07,037
the same thing he does in his activism
campaigns. He is able to be the tip of

2543
02:17:07,120 --> 02:17:09,997
the spear on something that actually
a lot more people agree with.

2544
02:17:10,080 --> 02:17:15,437
>> Yeah. It turns out if you have truth
behind you, it it helps. And just again,

2545
02:17:15,520 --> 02:17:18,557
you know, how I started is a lot
of people are just fed up. [snorts]

2546
02:17:18,640 --> 02:17:22,397
>> You've been spending a bunch of time
in Mara Lago in Palm Beach helping the new

2547
02:17:22,480 --> 02:17:24,637
administration in many ways including uh

2548
02:17:24,720 --> 02:17:29,597
interviewing people who might join.
So uh what's your general sense about the

2549
02:17:29,680 --> 02:17:32,877
talent about the people who are
coming in into the new administration?

2550
02:17:32,960 --> 02:17:36,397
>> Yeah. So I should start by saying I'm
not a member of the new administration.

2551
02:17:36,480 --> 02:17:39,997
Um I'm not I'm not in the I'm not like
in the room when a lot of these people

2552
02:17:40,080 --> 02:17:42,877
are being selected.
>> I believe you said unpaid intern. I am

2553
02:17:42,960 --> 02:17:46,477
an unpaid intern. Uh so I'm I'm
a volunteer and you know when helpful, but

2554
02:17:46,560 --> 02:17:49,357
I'm not I I'm not making the decisions,
nor am I in a position to, you know,

2555
02:17:49,440 --> 02:17:52,157
speak for the administration. So I don't
want to say anything that would cause

2556
02:17:52,240 --> 02:17:54,637
people to think I'm doing that. There's
a very unusual situation, right, where

2557
02:17:54,720 --> 02:17:57,117
you had an incumbent president and then
you had a four-year gap where he's out

2558
02:17:57,200 --> 02:18:00,397
of office and then you have him coming
back, right? Um and as you'll recall,

2559
02:18:00,480 --> 02:18:04,477
there was a fair amount of controversy
over the end of the first term.

2560
02:18:04,560 --> 02:18:08,637
>> Oh, yeah. >> The fear, the specific
concern was um you know, the first Trump

2561
02:18:08,720 --> 02:18:11,277
administration, they you know, they they
will all say this is like they didn't

2562
02:18:11,360 --> 02:18:13,837
come in with a team, right? So they they
you know they didn't come into the team

2563
02:18:13,920 --> 02:18:17,197
and most of the sort of institutional
base of the Republican party were Bush

2564
02:18:17,280 --> 02:18:20,077
Republicans and they were and many
of them had become never Trumpers and so

2565
02:18:20,160 --> 02:18:22,877
they had a hard time putting the team
together and then by the way they had a

2566
02:18:22,960 --> 02:18:25,917
hard time getting people confirmed
and so if you talk to the people who were

2567
02:18:26,000 --> 02:18:28,717
there in the first term it took them two
to three years to kind of even get the

2568
02:18:28,800 --> 02:18:31,757
government in place and then they
basically only had the government in

2569
02:18:31,840 --> 02:18:35,917
place for um you know for basically like
18 months and then co hit you know and

2570
02:18:36,000 --> 02:18:38,397
then sort of the aftermath and everything
and all the all the drama and

2571
02:18:38,480 --> 02:18:41,757
headlines and everything and so the
the concern you know including from some

2572
02:18:41,840 --> 02:18:44,477
very smart people in the last two years
has been, boy, if Trump gets a second

2573
02:18:44,560 --> 02:18:48,237
term, is he going to be able to get
a team that is as good as the team he had

2574
02:18:48,320 --> 02:18:51,517
last time or a team that is actually
not as good? Cuz maybe people got burned

2575
02:18:51,600 --> 02:18:53,117
out, maybe they're more cynical now.

2576
02:18:53,200 --> 02:18:56,077
Maybe they're not willing to go through
the drama. By the way, a lot of people

2577
02:18:56,160 --> 02:18:58,797
on in the first term came under like,
you know, their own withering legal

2578
02:18:58,880 --> 02:19:01,277
assaults and, you know, some of them
went to prison and like, you know, a lot

2579
02:19:01,360 --> 02:19:05,757
of a lot of stuff happened. Uh, lots
of investigations, lots of legal fees, um,

2580
02:19:05,840 --> 02:19:09,917
lots of bad press. Um, lots of debunking.
By the way, a lot of the

2581
02:19:10,000 --> 02:19:12,877
officials in the first Trump
term got debunked. [gasps]

2582
02:19:12,960 --> 02:19:16,077
Um, including
the president's wife and son.

2583
02:19:16,160 --> 02:19:17,277
>> Yeah, I heard you tell that story.

2584
02:19:17,360 --> 02:19:18,877
That's insane. That's just insane.

2585
02:19:18,960 --> 02:19:22,397
>> In the wake of the first term, yes,
we we now take out spouses and children

2586
02:19:22,480 --> 02:19:27,117
with our ring of power. Um, and so there
there's like this legitimate question as

2587
02:19:27,200 --> 02:19:29,997
to like whether okay, what what will the
team for the second term look like? And

2588
02:19:30,080 --> 02:19:32,957
at least what I've seen and what you're
seeing this appointments is it looks

2589
02:19:33,040 --> 02:19:36,397
much much better. Um, first of all,
it just looks better than the first term.

2590
02:19:36,480 --> 02:19:38,957
and not because the people in the first
term were not necessarily good, but just

2591
02:19:39,040 --> 02:19:42,237
you you just have this like influx of like
incredibly capable people that have

2592
02:19:42,320 --> 02:19:43,997
shown up that want to be part of this.

2593
02:19:44,080 --> 02:19:47,517
Um, and you just didn't have that the
first time. Um, and so they they're just

2594
02:19:47,600 --> 02:19:50,717
drawing on a much deeper, richer talent
pool than they had the first time. And

2595
02:19:50,800 --> 02:19:53,757
and they're drawing on people who know
what the game is. Like they're drawing

2596
02:19:53,840 --> 02:19:56,477
on people now who know what is going
to happen and they're still willing to do

2597
02:19:56,560 --> 02:19:59,677
it. Um, and so they're going to get,
I think, you know, some of the best people

2598
02:19:59,760 --> 02:20:01,837
from the first term, but they're
bringing in a lot of people who they

2599
02:20:01,920 --> 02:20:03,997
couldn't get uh the first time around.

2600
02:20:04,080 --> 02:20:07,597
Um, and then second is there's a bunch
of people, including people in the first

2601
02:20:07,680 --> 02:20:09,437
term, where they're just 10 years older.

2602
02:20:09,520 --> 02:20:11,997
Um, and so they went through the first
term and they just learned how

2603
02:20:12,080 --> 02:20:15,277
everything works. Um, or they're young
people who just had a different point of

2604
02:20:15,360 --> 02:20:19,197
view and now they're 10 years older and
they're ready to go serve in government.

2605
02:20:19,280 --> 02:20:21,757
Um, and so there's a generational shift
happening. And actually, one of the

2606
02:20:21,840 --> 02:20:25,597
interesting things about the team that's
forming up is it's remarkably young.

2607
02:20:25,680 --> 02:20:28,397
some of the cabinet members and then
many of the second and third level

2608
02:20:28,480 --> 02:20:32,157
people are like in their 30s and 40s
you know which is a big change from the

2609
02:20:32,240 --> 02:20:36,397
gerontocracy that you know we've been
under for the last 30 years um and so I

2610
02:20:36,480 --> 02:20:39,117
think the caliber has been outstanding
you know and we could sit here and list

2611
02:20:39,200 --> 02:20:42,237
tons and tons of people but like you
know the people who are running you know

2612
02:20:42,320 --> 02:20:44,637
it's everything from the people who are
running all the different departments at

2613
02:20:44,720 --> 02:20:48,397
HHS it's the people running you know the
the number two at the Pentagon is Steve

2614
02:20:48,480 --> 02:20:51,437
Fineberg who's just like an incredible
legend of private equity incredible

2615
02:20:51,520 --> 02:20:54,397
capable guy um we've got uh two actually

2616
02:20:54,480 --> 02:20:59,357
two of my partners are going who I both
think are amazing. Yeah. Like many many

2617
02:20:59,440 --> 02:21:00,637
parts of the government the people are

2618
02:21:00,720 --> 02:21:02,957
like really impressive. Well, I think

2619
02:21:03,040 --> 02:21:06,797
one of the concerns is is actually that

2620
02:21:06,880 --> 02:21:10,157
um given the human being of Donald Trump

2621
02:21:10,240 --> 02:21:12,797
that there would be more tendency

2622
02:21:12,880 --> 02:21:16,397
towards let's say favoritism versus

2623
02:21:16,480 --> 02:21:19,917
meritocracy that there's kind of circles

2624
02:21:20,000 --> 02:21:22,877
of sickopancy that form and if you're be

2625
02:21:22,960 --> 02:21:26,477
able to uh be loyal

2626
02:21:26,560 --> 02:21:31,277
and never oppose and just be uh
basically suck up to the president that

2627
02:21:31,360 --> 02:21:34,397
you'll get a position. So, that's one
of the concerns and I think you're in a

2628
02:21:34,480 --> 02:21:36,557
good position to speak to the degree

2629
02:21:36,640 --> 02:21:41,917
that's happening versus uh
hiring based on merit and just

2630
02:21:42,000 --> 02:21:45,037
getting great teams. >> Yeah.
So, look, I just start by saying

2631
02:21:45,120 --> 02:21:49,117
any leader at that level, by the way,
any CEO, there's always some risk of

2632
02:21:49,200 --> 02:21:51,597
that, right? So, there there's always
some, you know, it's just it's like a

2633
02:21:51,680 --> 02:21:54,877
natural reality warps around around
powerful leaders. And so, there's always

2634
02:21:54,960 --> 02:21:57,357
some risk to that. Of course, the good
powerful leaders are, you know, very

2635
02:21:57,440 --> 02:21:59,997
aware of that. And Trump at this point
in his life, I think, is highly aware of

2636
02:22:00,080 --> 02:22:02,957
that. at least my interactions with him
like he he he definitely seems very

2637
02:22:03,040 --> 02:22:07,277
aware of that. So um so so that's one
thing I would just say that I think the

2638
02:22:07,360 --> 02:22:09,677
way to look at that I mean look like
I said I don't want to predict what's

2639
02:22:09,760 --> 02:22:12,557
going to happen once this whole thing
starts unfolding but um I I would just

2640
02:22:12,640 --> 02:22:15,597
say again the caliber of the people who
are showing up and getting the jobs and

2641
02:22:15,680 --> 02:22:18,557
then the fact that these are some of the
most accomplished people in the business

2642
02:22:18,640 --> 02:22:22,317
world um and in the medical field um I I

2643
02:22:22,400 --> 02:22:26,397
just you know Jay Badataria coming in to
run NIH when so I was actually in the I

2644
02:22:26,480 --> 02:22:29,917
was actually I was part of the interview
team for a lot of the HHS folks um

2645
02:22:30,000 --> 02:22:33,437
>> Jay is amazing. Oh I was so I was so
happy to see that. So, I literally got,

2646
02:22:33,520 --> 02:22:36,077
this is a story, I got to the the the
transition office for one of the days of

2647
02:22:36,160 --> 02:22:38,717
the HHS interviews and I was on one
of the interviewing teams and they gave us

2648
02:22:38,800 --> 02:22:40,797
I didn't know who the candidates
were and they gave us the sheet in the

2649
02:22:40,880 --> 02:22:43,837
beginning and I go down the sheet
and I saw Jay's name and I like I almost

2650
02:22:43,920 --> 02:22:45,117
physically fell out of my chair.

2651
02:22:45,200 --> 02:22:49,997
>> Yeah. >> And I was just like,
you know, and I have I happen to know

2652
02:22:50,080 --> 02:22:52,317
Jay. I happen to know Jay and I like
respect him enormously. And then he

2653
02:22:52,400 --> 02:22:55,277
proved himself under this like talk
about a guy who proved himself under

2654
02:22:55,360 --> 02:22:57,837
extraordinary pressure
uh over the last 5 years

2655
02:22:57,920 --> 02:23:01,037
>> and then go radical under the pressure.

2656
02:23:01,120 --> 02:23:05,277
He maintained balance and thoughtfulness
and depth. I mean, incredible.

2657
02:23:05,360 --> 02:23:07,437
>> Very serious, very analytical, very

2658
02:23:07,520 --> 02:23:10,557
applied and and and and yes, 100% tested

2659
02:23:10,640 --> 02:23:14,557
under pressure, came out like the more
people look back at what he said and did

2660
02:23:14,640 --> 02:23:19,037
and you know, he's not, you know, none
of us are perfect, but like overwhelmingly

2661
02:23:19,120 --> 02:23:21,757
like overwhelmingly insightful
throughout that whole period. Um, and

2662
02:23:21,840 --> 02:23:24,157
you know, we you know, we would all
be much better off today had he been in

2663
02:23:24,240 --> 02:23:28,157
charge of the response. Um, and and so
just like an incredibly capable guy and

2664
02:23:28,240 --> 02:23:30,557
and look and and then he learned from all
that, right? and he he learned a lot

2665
02:23:30,640 --> 02:23:33,837
in the last 5 years. Um and so the idea
that somebody like that could be head of

2666
02:23:33,920 --> 02:23:37,677
NIH as compared to the people we've had
is just like breathtakingly it's just a

2667
02:23:37,760 --> 02:23:42,077
gigantic upgrade. Um you know and then
Marty Machery coming in to run FDA exact

2668
02:23:42,160 --> 02:23:44,477
same thing. Um the guy coming to run CDC

2669
02:23:44,560 --> 02:23:47,917
exact same thing. Um um um I mean I've

2670
02:23:48,000 --> 02:23:51,597
been spending time with Dr. Oz. Um so
um you know I'm not like as again I'm not

2671
02:23:51,680 --> 02:23:54,317
like I'm not on these teams. I'm not
in the room, but like I've been spending

2672
02:23:54,400 --> 02:23:57,917
enough time trying to help that like his
level of insight into into the healthare

2673
02:23:58,000 --> 02:24:01,517
system is like it's like astounding.
And it comes from being a guy who's been

2674
02:24:01,600 --> 02:24:03,997
like in the middle of the whole thing
and been talking to people about this

2675
02:24:04,080 --> 02:24:06,877
stuff and working on it and serving
as a doctor himself and in medical systems

2676
02:24:06,960 --> 02:24:10,397
for, you know, his entire life and is just
like, you know, he's like a walking

2677
02:24:10,480 --> 02:24:13,677
encyclopedia on these things and so and,
you know, very dynamic, you know, very

2678
02:24:13,760 --> 02:24:18,397
charismatic, very smart, organized,
effective. Um so you know to have

2679
02:24:18,480 --> 02:24:21,997
somebody like that in there and so
anyway there just I have like 30 of

2680
02:24:22,080 --> 02:24:24,717
these stories now across all these
different um all these different

2681
02:24:24,800 --> 02:24:28,637
positions and so I and then I just I'd
be quite honest I you do the compare and

2682
02:24:28,720 --> 02:24:31,917
contrast of the last four years and it
not even these people are not in the

2683
02:24:32,000 --> 02:24:34,557
same ballpark. They're just like wildly

2684
02:24:34,640 --> 02:24:39,197
better. Um, and so it, you know,
pound-for-pound is maybe the best team

2685
02:24:39,280 --> 02:24:43,837
in the White House since, you know,
I don't even know, maybe the '9s, maybe

2686
02:24:43,920 --> 02:24:48,237
the maybe the 30s, maybe the ' 50s.
[clears throat] You

2687
02:24:48,320 --> 02:24:51,677
know, maybe Eisenhower had a team like
this or something, but um, it it's it's

2688
02:24:51,760 --> 02:24:53,357
there's a lot of really
good people in there now.

2689
02:24:53,440 --> 02:24:56,797
>> Yeah, the potential for change
is certain extremely high. What can you

2690
02:24:56,880 --> 02:24:58,877
speak to Doge?

2691
02:24:58,960 --> 02:25:02,797
What's the most wildly successful

2692
02:25:02,880 --> 02:25:05,757
next two years for Doge? Can you imagine

2693
02:25:05,840 --> 02:25:10,797
maybe also can you think about the
trajectory that's the most likely and uh

2694
02:25:10,880 --> 02:25:12,877
what kind of challenges
would it be facing?

2695
02:25:12,960 --> 02:25:16,717
>> Yeah. So, and I start by saying again
I'm not disclaimer. I have to disclaim.

2696
02:25:16,800 --> 02:25:19,917
I'm not on Doge.
[laughter] I'm not a member of Doge.

2697
02:25:20,000 --> 02:25:24,077
>> We should say there's about 10 lawyers
in the room. They're staring. No, I'm

2698
02:25:24,160 --> 02:25:26,797
just kidding.
>> Both the angels and the devils on my

2699
02:25:26,880 --> 02:25:30,477
shoulder are lawyers. So, um yeah. So,
I'm not speaking for Doge. Um I'm not in

2700
02:25:30,560 --> 02:25:33,277
charge of Doge. >> Um those
guys are doing it. I'm not

2701
02:25:33,360 --> 02:25:36,157
doing it. But I am, you know, again,
I'm I'm volunteering to help as much as I

2702
02:25:36,240 --> 02:25:41,037
can. Um, and I'm 100% supportive. Um,
yeah. So, look, I I I think the way to

2703
02:25:41,120 --> 02:25:44,077
think, I mean, the the basic outlines
are in public, right, which is it's a

2704
02:25:44,160 --> 02:25:47,597
it's a time limited, you know, basically
commission. Um, uh, it's not a formal

2705
02:25:47,680 --> 02:25:52,637
government agency. Um, it's a, you know,
time limited 18-month um, it'll it'll in

2706
02:25:52,720 --> 02:25:55,917
terms of implementation, it will advise
the executive branch, right? And so, the

2707
02:25:56,000 --> 02:25:59,757
the the implementation will happen
through the the White House. Um, and the

2708
02:25:59,840 --> 02:26:03,837
president has total attitude on what he
wants to what he wants to implement. Um

2709
02:26:03,920 --> 02:26:07,277
and then basically I think about it
is the three kind of streams you know kind

2710
02:26:07,360 --> 02:26:11,837
of target sets and they're related
but different. So money uh people and

2711
02:26:11,920 --> 02:26:15,117
regulations um and so you
know the headline number

2712
02:26:15,200 --> 02:26:17,677
they you know put us the $2 trillion
number and there's already you know

2713
02:26:17,760 --> 02:26:20,397
disputes over over that and whatever and
there's a whole question there but then

2714
02:26:20,480 --> 02:26:23,517
there's the people thing and the people
thing is interesting because you get

2715
02:26:23,600 --> 02:26:27,517
into these very um kind of um
fascinating questions. Um, and I've been

2716
02:26:27,600 --> 02:26:30,877
doing this I I won't do this for you
as a pop quiz, but I do this for people in

2717
02:26:30,960 --> 02:26:34,237
government as a pop quiz and I can stump
them every time, which is a how many

2718
02:26:34,320 --> 02:26:36,317
federal agencies are there? >> Mhm.

2719
02:26:36,400 --> 02:26:41,277
>> And the answer is somewhere between
450 and 520 and nobody's quite sure. And

2720
02:26:41,360 --> 02:26:44,797
then the other is how many people work
for the federal government? Um, and the

2721
02:26:44,880 --> 02:26:47,437
answer is, you know, something
on the order I forget, but like 4 million

2722
02:26:47,520 --> 02:26:50,877
full-time employees and maybe up to 20
million contractors, and nobody is quite

2723
02:26:50,960 --> 02:26:55,837
sure. And so there's a large people
component to this. Um and then by the

2724
02:26:55,920 --> 02:26:58,077
way there's a related component to that
which is how many of them are actually

2725
02:26:58,160 --> 02:27:02,397
in the office and the answer is not many.
most of the federal buildings are

2726
02:27:02,480 --> 02:27:05,597
still empty, right? And so, and then
there's questions of like are people,

2727
02:27:05,680 --> 02:27:08,477
you know, working from home? Are we
actually working from home? So, there's

2728
02:27:08,560 --> 02:27:11,277
the people dimension and of course the
money and the people are connected. And

2729
02:27:11,360 --> 02:27:14,237
then there's the third which is the
the regulation thing, right? And I I

2730
02:27:14,320 --> 02:27:17,437
described earlier how basically
our system of government is much more now

2731
02:27:17,520 --> 02:27:21,437
based on regulations than legislation,
right? Most of the rules that we all

2732
02:27:21,520 --> 02:27:24,717
live under are not from a bill that went
through Congress. They're from an agency

2733
02:27:24,800 --> 02:27:28,797
that that created a regulation. That
turns out to be very very important. So

2734
02:27:28,880 --> 02:27:31,837
one is Elon have already described
we want to do the Doge wants to do

2735
02:27:31,920 --> 02:27:35,117
broad-based regulatory relief and Trump
has talked about this and basically get

2736
02:27:35,200 --> 02:27:38,157
the government off people's backs and
liberate the American people to be able

2737
02:27:38,240 --> 02:27:41,357
to do things again. Um so that's part
of it but there's also something else

2738
02:27:41,440 --> 02:27:43,837
that's happened which is very
interesting which was there were a set

2739
02:27:43,920 --> 02:27:45,357
of Supreme Court decisions about 2 years

2740
02:27:45,440 --> 02:27:48,477
ago um that went directly after the idea

2741
02:27:48,560 --> 02:27:52,557
that the executive branch can
create regulatory agencies and issue

2742
02:27:52,640 --> 02:27:55,597
regulations and enforce those
regulations without corresponding

2743
02:27:55,680 --> 02:27:58,557
congressional legislation. Um, and most

2744
02:27:58,640 --> 02:28:03,197
of the federal government that exists
today, including most of the departments

2745
02:28:03,280 --> 02:28:06,557
and most of the rules and most of the
money and most of the people, most of it

2746
02:28:06,640 --> 02:28:11,437
is not enforcing laws the Congress passed.
Most of it is is regulation. And

2747
02:28:11,520 --> 02:28:13,437
the Supreme Court basically said large

2748
02:28:13,520 --> 02:28:18,717
parts, you know, large to maybe all
of that regulation that did not directly

2749
02:28:18,800 --> 02:28:21,757
result from a bill that went through
Congress the way that the cartoon said

2750
02:28:21,840 --> 02:28:24,317
that it should. Um, that may not

2751
02:28:24,400 --> 02:28:29,277
actually be legal. Now, the previous
White House, of course, was super in

2752
02:28:29,360 --> 02:28:31,757
favor of big government. They had no
desire to act. They did nothing based on

2753
02:28:31,840 --> 02:28:35,757
this. They they didn't, you know, pull
anything back in. But the new regime, if

2754
02:28:35,840 --> 02:28:39,837
they choose to, could say, "Look, the
the thing that we're doing here is not,

2755
02:28:39,920 --> 02:28:43,197
you know, challenging the laws.
We're actually complying with the Supreme

2756
02:28:43,280 --> 02:28:46,717
Court decision that basically says we
have to unwind a lot of this and we have

2757
02:28:46,800 --> 02:28:50,237
to unwind the regulations, which are no
longer legal, constitutional. We have to

2758
02:28:50,320 --> 02:28:54,157
unwind the spend and we have to unwind
the people." Um and and so and that's

2759
02:28:54,240 --> 02:28:56,957
how you get from basically you connect
the thread from the regulation part back

2760
02:28:57,040 --> 02:29:00,477
to the money part back to the people part.
Um they have work going on all

2761
02:29:00,560 --> 02:29:03,757
three of these threads. They have I
would say incredibly creative ideas on

2762
02:29:03,840 --> 02:29:07,997
how to deal with this. Um I'm I I know
lots of former government people who

2763
02:29:08,080 --> 02:29:10,557
100% of them are super cynical
on this topic. And they're like this is

2764
02:29:10,640 --> 02:29:14,317
impossible. This could never possibly
work. And I'm like well I can't tell you

2765
02:29:14,400 --> 02:29:19,037
what the secret plans are but like
like blow my mind. like and all three of

2766
02:29:19,120 --> 02:29:22,637
those like they they have ideas that are
like really quite amazing as you'd

2767
02:29:22,720 --> 02:29:25,837
expect from you know from from the
people involved and so um over the

2768
02:29:25,920 --> 02:29:29,037
course of the next few months you know
that'll start to become visible and then

2769
02:29:29,120 --> 02:29:33,357
the final thing I would say is um this
is going to be very different than than

2770
02:29:33,440 --> 02:29:37,597
attempts like there have been other
programs like this in the past um the

2771
02:29:37,680 --> 02:29:40,317
Clinton Gore administration had one
and then there were others before that

2772
02:29:40,400 --> 02:29:43,197
Reagan had one um the the difference is

2773
02:29:43,280 --> 02:29:46,157
at this time their social media

2774
02:29:46,240 --> 02:29:50,637
>> um and so There has
never been like it's

2775
02:29:50,720 --> 02:29:53,277
interesting. One of the reasons people
in Washington are so cynical is because

2776
02:29:53,360 --> 02:29:57,437
they know all the [__] Like they
know all the bad spending and all the

2777
02:29:57,520 --> 02:30:00,957
bad rules and all the like, you know,
I mean, look, we're adding a trillion

2778
02:30:01,040 --> 02:30:05,037
dollars to the national debt every 100
days right now. And that's compounding

2779
02:30:05,120 --> 02:30:08,317
and it's now passing the size of the
Defense Department budget. And it's

2780
02:30:08,400 --> 02:30:10,397
compounding. And it's pretty soon it's
going to be adding a trillion dollars

2781
02:30:10,480 --> 02:30:13,037
every 90 days. And then it's going to be
adding a trillion dollars every 80 days.

2782
02:30:13,120 --> 02:30:15,917
And then it's going to be a trillion
dollars every 70 days. And then if this

2783
02:30:16,000 --> 02:30:19,037
doesn't get fixed at some point,
we enter a hyperinflationary spiral and we

2784
02:30:19,120 --> 02:30:22,157
become Argentina or Brazil and

2785
02:30:22,240 --> 02:30:26,477
Kabooi, right? And so like everybody
in DC knows that something has to be done

2786
02:30:26,560 --> 02:30:30,637
and then everybody in DC knows for a fact
that it's impossible to do anything,

2787
02:30:30,720 --> 02:30:33,277
right? They know all the problems
and they also know the sheer impossibility

2788
02:30:33,360 --> 02:30:36,477
of fixing it. But I think what they're
not taking into account, what the

2789
02:30:36,560 --> 02:30:41,037
critics are not taking into account is
these guys can do this in the full light

2790
02:30:41,120 --> 02:30:43,677
of day and they can do it on social media.
They can completely bypass the

2791
02:30:43,760 --> 02:30:47,677
press. They can completely bypass
the cynicism. They can expose any element

2792
02:30:47,760 --> 02:30:51,117
of, you know, unconstitutional or,
you know, silly government spending. They

2793
02:30:51,200 --> 02:30:54,077
can run victory laps every single day
on what they're doing. They can they can

2794
02:30:54,160 --> 02:30:57,357
bring the people into the process. And
again, if you think about it, this goes

2795
02:30:57,440 --> 02:30:59,917
back to our Mabelian uh structure, which

2796
02:31:00,000 --> 02:31:04,557
is if you think about again, you've got
democracy, oligarchy, monarchy, rule of

2797
02:31:04,640 --> 02:31:07,997
the many, rule of the few, rule
of the one. You could think about what's

2798
02:31:08,080 --> 02:31:11,277
happening here as a little bit of a
sandwich, right? which is you have you

2799
02:31:11,360 --> 02:31:14,157
have we don't have a monarch but we have
a president rule of the one with some

2800
02:31:14,240 --> 02:31:18,317
power and then we have the people who
can't organize but they can be informed

2801
02:31:18,400 --> 02:31:21,517
and they can be aware and they can
express themselves through voting and

2802
02:31:21,600 --> 02:31:25,437
polling right and so there's a sandwich
happening right now is the way to think

2803
02:31:25,520 --> 02:31:28,877
about it which is you've got basically
monarch monarchy you've got rule of one

2804
02:31:28,960 --> 02:31:32,157
combining with rule of many right
and rule of many is they do get to vote

2805
02:31:32,240 --> 02:31:36,237
right the people do get to vote
basically and then essentially congress

2806
02:31:36,320 --> 02:31:39,117
as in this sort of permanent
bureaucratic class in Washington as the

2807
02:31:39,200 --> 02:31:44,157
oligarchy in the middle. And so
the White House plus the people um I think

2808
02:31:44,240 --> 02:31:47,037
have the power to do all kinds of things
here. And I and I think that that would

2809
02:31:47,120 --> 02:31:48,397
be the way I would watch it.

2810
02:31:48,480 --> 02:31:50,237
>> The transparency

2811
02:31:50,320 --> 02:31:55,197
I mean Elon just uh by who he is in is

2812
02:31:55,280 --> 02:31:58,877
incentivized to be transparent
and show the [__] in the system and to

2813
02:31:58,960 --> 02:32:01,117
celebrate the victories. So it's going

2814
02:32:01,200 --> 02:32:03,197
to be so exciting. I mean honestly just

2815
02:32:03,280 --> 02:32:06,397
makes government more exciting which is

2816
02:32:06,480 --> 02:32:10,237
a win for everybody.
These people are spending our money.

2817
02:32:10,320 --> 02:32:13,597
>> Yeah, >> these people
have enormous contempt for

2818
02:32:13,680 --> 02:32:16,717
the taxpayer. Okay, here's the thing
you hear in Washington. Here's one of the

2819
02:32:16,800 --> 02:32:19,117
things. So, the first thing you hear
is this is impossible. They'll be able to

2820
02:32:19,200 --> 02:32:21,677
do nothing. And then I walk them through
this and they're like, they start to get

2821
02:32:21,760 --> 02:32:24,237
it starts to dawn on them that this is
a new kind of thing. And then they're

2822
02:32:24,320 --> 02:32:27,197
like, well, it doesn't matter because
all the money is in entitlements and the

2823
02:32:27,280 --> 02:32:31,117
debt and the military. And so, like,
yeah, you've got like this silly fake

2824
02:32:31,200 --> 02:32:35,037
whatever, you know, NPR funding
or whatever. And like it just it's a

2825
02:32:35,120 --> 02:32:35,997
rounding error and it doesn't matter.

2826
02:32:36,080 --> 02:32:39,997
and you look it up in the budget
and it's like whatever $500 million or $5

2827
02:32:40,080 --> 02:32:43,597
billion or it's the or it's the the
the the it's the charging stations that

2828
02:32:43,680 --> 02:32:46,157
don't exist. It's the $40 billion
of charging stations and they build eight

2829
02:32:46,240 --> 02:32:50,157
charging stations or it's the it's
the broadband internet plan that delivered

2830
02:32:50,240 --> 02:32:54,237
broadband to nobody, right? And cost
you $30 billion like so these these

2831
02:32:54,320 --> 02:32:57,117
boondoggles and what everybody in
Washington says is that $30 billion is a

2832
02:32:57,200 --> 02:32:59,917
rounding error on the federal budget.
It doesn't matter. Who cares if they if

2833
02:33:00,000 --> 02:33:03,777
they if if they make it go away? And
of course any taxpayer is like what the

2834
02:33:03,860 --> 02:33:05,837
[laughter] >> what do you mean?

2835
02:33:05,920 --> 02:33:09,997
>> It's $30 billion. >> Yeah.
>> Right. And then then then the experts

2836
02:33:10,080 --> 02:33:12,717
are like and the press is in on this too.
Then the experts are like, "Well,

2837
02:33:12,800 --> 02:33:15,037
it doesn't it doesn't matter because
it's a rounding." No, no, it's $30

2838
02:33:15,120 --> 02:33:19,037
billion. And if you're this cavalier
about $30 billion, imagine how cavalier

2839
02:33:19,120 --> 02:33:20,317
you are about the three trillion.

2840
02:33:20,400 --> 02:33:24,637
>> Yeah. >> Okay. Then there's the Okay,
$30 billion. Is $30 billion a lot of the

2841
02:33:24,720 --> 02:33:28,077
federal budget in a percentage? No, it's
not. But $30 billion divided by 30, do

2842
02:33:28,160 --> 02:33:31,517
the math. $30 billion divided
by let's say 300 million taxpayers,

2843
02:33:31,600 --> 02:33:34,557
>> right? Like what's that math expert?

2844
02:33:34,640 --> 02:33:37,597
>> $100. >> $100 per
taxpayer per year. Okay. So

2845
02:33:37,680 --> 02:33:41,037
$100 to an ordinary person working hard

2846
02:33:41,120 --> 02:33:42,957
every day to make money and provide for

2847
02:33:43,040 --> 02:33:46,397
their kids. $100 is a meal out. It's a

2848
02:33:46,480 --> 02:33:50,237
trip to the amusement park. It's
the ability to, you know, buy additional

2849
02:33:50,320 --> 02:33:53,837
educational materials. It's the ability
to have a babysitter, to be able to have

2850
02:33:53,920 --> 02:33:55,357
a romantic relationship with your wife.

2851
02:33:55,440 --> 02:33:59,037
It's there's like a hundred things
that that person can do with $100 that

2852
02:33:59,120 --> 02:34:02,717
they're not doing cuz it's going to some
[__] program that is being basically

2853
02:34:02,800 --> 02:34:06,157
where the money is being looted out
in the form of just like ridiculous

2854
02:34:06,240 --> 02:34:09,677
ridiculousness and graft. And so
the idea that that $30 billion program is

2855
02:34:09,760 --> 02:34:12,717
not something that is like a very
important thing to go after is just like

2856
02:34:12,800 --> 02:34:17,597
the level of contempt for the taxpayer
>> is just off the charts. And then that's

2857
02:34:17,680 --> 02:34:21,677
just one of those programs and there's
like a hundred of those programs and

2858
02:34:21,760 --> 02:34:24,157
they're all just like that. Like it's
not like any of this stuff is running

2859
02:34:24,240 --> 02:34:26,717
well. Like the one thing we know is that
none of this stuff is running well. Like

2860
02:34:26,800 --> 02:34:29,757
we know that for sure, right? And we
like we know these people aren't showing

2861
02:34:29,840 --> 02:34:32,557
up to work and like we know that all
this crazy stuff is happening, right? Um

2862
02:34:32,640 --> 02:34:36,797
and like you know the the do you
remember Elon's story of the um do you

2863
02:34:36,880 --> 02:34:39,837
remember Elon's story of what got the
Amish to turn out to vote in Pennsylvania?

2864
02:34:39,920 --> 02:34:42,797
>> Oh, okay. So like Pennsylvania. Okay.
So Pennsylvania is like a wonderful state,

2865
02:34:42,880 --> 02:34:45,917
great history. It has these cities like
Philadelphia that have descended like

2866
02:34:46,000 --> 02:34:49,037
other cities into just like complete
chaos, violent madness, and death,

2867
02:34:49,120 --> 02:34:52,237
right? And the federal government has
just like let it happen. It's incredibly

2868
02:34:52,320 --> 02:34:55,757
violent places. And so the Biden
administration decided that the big

2869
02:34:55,840 --> 02:34:58,397
pressing law enforcement thing that they
needed to do in Pennsylvania was that

2870
02:34:58,480 --> 02:35:03,357
they needed to start raiding Amish farms
to prevent them from selling raw milk

2871
02:35:03,440 --> 02:35:05,677
with armed raids, >> right?

2872
02:35:05,760 --> 02:35:10,397
>> And it turns out it really pissed off
the Amish. And it turns out they weren't

2873
02:35:10,480 --> 02:35:13,517
willing to drive to the polling places
cuz they don't have cars. But if you

2874
02:35:13,600 --> 02:35:16,157
came and got them, they would go
and they would vote. And that's one of the

2875
02:35:16,240 --> 02:35:19,757
reasons why Trump won. Anyway, so like
the law enforcement agencies are off

2876
02:35:19,840 --> 02:35:21,917
working on like crazy things. like the

2877
02:35:22,000 --> 02:35:24,477
system's not working. And so you you add

2878
02:35:24,560 --> 02:35:27,197
up just pick a $130 billion programs.

2879
02:35:27,280 --> 02:35:29,037
All right. Now you're okay, math major.

2880
02:35:29,120 --> 02:35:34,077
100 times 100 >> 10,000 >> $10,000.
Okay. $10,000 per taxpayer per year.

2881
02:35:34,160 --> 02:35:38,157
>> And but but it's also not just about
money that's really obviously money is a

2882
02:35:38,240 --> 02:35:39,277
hugely important thing, but it's the

2883
02:35:39,360 --> 02:35:41,997
cavalier attitude. Yes. That then in

2884
02:35:42,080 --> 02:35:45,597
sort of in the ripple effect of that,

2885
02:35:45,680 --> 02:35:50,237
>> it makes it so nobody wants to work
in government and be productive. It makes

2886
02:35:50,320 --> 02:35:52,557
it so that corruption can it breeds

2887
02:35:52,640 --> 02:35:55,677
corruption. It breeds laziness. It

2888
02:35:55,760 --> 02:35:59,597
breeds secrecy because you don't want to
be transparent about having done nothing

2889
02:35:59,680 --> 02:36:03,517
all year. All this kind of stuff. You
don't want to reverse that. So it would

2890
02:36:03,600 --> 02:36:05,597
be exciting for the future to work at

2891
02:36:05,680 --> 02:36:08,557
government to because the the amazing

2892
02:36:08,640 --> 02:36:10,877
thing if you're the steel man government

2893
02:36:10,960 --> 02:36:13,837
is you can do [__] at scale. you have

2894
02:36:13,920 --> 02:36:16,077
money and you can directly impact

2895
02:36:16,160 --> 02:36:19,037
people's lives in a positive uh sense at

2896
02:36:19,120 --> 02:36:22,397
scale. That's it's super exciting. As

2897
02:36:22,480 --> 02:36:25,037
long as there's no bureaucracy that

2898
02:36:25,120 --> 02:36:29,437
slows you down or not huge amounts
of bureaucracy that slows you down

2899
02:36:29,520 --> 02:36:31,837
significantly. >> Yeah. So,
uh here's here's the trick.

2900
02:36:31,920 --> 02:36:36,077
This blew my mind because I was you
know once you look into once you open the

2901
02:36:36,160 --> 02:36:39,517
hell mouth of looking into the federal
budget you learn all kinds of things.

2902
02:36:39,600 --> 02:36:43,837
Um, so there is a term of art
in government called impoundment.

2903
02:36:43,920 --> 02:36:45,997
>> And so you you if
you're like me, you've

2904
02:36:46,080 --> 02:36:48,957
learned this the hard way when your car
has been impounded. The government

2905
02:36:49,040 --> 02:36:51,517
meaning of empoundment, the federal
budget meaning is a is a different

2906
02:36:51,600 --> 02:36:53,997
meaning. Um, empoundment is as follows.

2907
02:36:54,080 --> 02:36:57,757
The constitution uh requires Congress
to authorize money to be spent by the

2908
02:36:57,840 --> 02:37:00,957
executive branch. Right? So the the the
executive branch goes to Congress, says

2909
02:37:01,040 --> 02:37:03,677
we need money X. Congress does their
thing. They come back and they say you

2910
02:37:03,760 --> 02:37:06,477
can have money Y. The money
is appropriated from Congress. the

2911
02:37:06,560 --> 02:37:09,117
executive branch spends it on the military
or whatever they spend it on or

2912
02:37:09,200 --> 02:37:14,157
on roads to nowhere, charging stations
to nowhere or whatever. Um the the and

2913
02:37:14,240 --> 02:37:16,077
what's in the constitution is the the

2914
02:37:16,160 --> 02:37:18,797
Congress appropriates the money. Um over

2915
02:37:18,880 --> 02:37:23,197
the last 60 years um there has
been an additional interpretation of

2916
02:37:23,280 --> 02:37:27,197
appropriations applied by the courts
um and by the system um which is the

2917
02:37:27,280 --> 02:37:31,357
executive branch not only needs Congress
to appropriate X amount of money, the

2918
02:37:31,440 --> 02:37:33,677
executive branch is not
allowed to underspend.

2919
02:37:33,760 --> 02:37:37,357
>> Yeah, I'm aware of this.
I'm aware of this.

2920
02:37:37,440 --> 02:37:40,317
>> And so there's this thing that happens
in Washington at the end of every fiscal

2921
02:37:40,400 --> 02:37:44,157
year, which is September 30th, and it's
the it's the great budget flush. And any

2922
02:37:44,240 --> 02:37:46,717
remaining money that's in the system
that they don't know how to productively

2923
02:37:46,800 --> 02:37:49,437
spend, they deliberately
spend it unproductively.

2924
02:37:49,520 --> 02:37:52,397
>> Yeah. >> To the tune
of hundreds and hundreds of

2925
02:37:52,480 --> 02:37:55,597
billions of dollars. A president that
doesn't want to spend the money can't

2926
02:37:55,680 --> 02:38:00,237
not spend it. >> Yeah. >> Like,
okay, a that's not what's in the

2927
02:38:00,320 --> 02:38:03,037
Constitution. Um, and there's actually
quite a good Wikipedia page that goes

2928
02:38:03,120 --> 02:38:05,597
through the the great debate on this has
played out in the legal world over the

2929
02:38:05,680 --> 02:38:08,957
last 60 years. And like basically,
if you look at this with anything

2930
02:38:09,040 --> 02:38:11,117
resembling, I think an open mind, you're
like, "All right, this is not what the

2931
02:38:11,200 --> 02:38:13,517
founders meant." Um, and then number

2932
02:38:13,600 --> 02:38:14,877
two, again, we go back to this thing of

2933
02:38:14,960 --> 02:38:20,557
contempt. Like, can you imagine [snorts]
showing up and running the government

2934
02:38:20,640 --> 02:38:23,037
like that and thinking that you're doing
the right thing and not going home at

2935
02:38:23,120 --> 02:38:26,797
night and thinking that you've sold
your soul, right? Like it's just like I

2936
02:38:26,880 --> 02:38:29,517
actually think you sort of hit a really
good point which is it's even unfair to

2937
02:38:29,600 --> 02:38:31,117
the people who have to execute this.

2938
02:38:31,200 --> 02:38:32,877
>> Yeah. >> Right.
Because it it makes them it makes

2939
02:38:32,960 --> 02:38:34,957
them bad people and they didn't they
didn't start out wanting to be bad

2940
02:38:35,040 --> 02:38:38,957
people. And so there is stuff
like this like >> Yeah. Everywhere.

2941
02:38:39,040 --> 02:38:42,877
>> Everywhere. And so we'll see how
far these guys get. I'm I am extremely

2942
02:38:42,960 --> 02:38:44,557
encouraged what I've
what I've seen so far.

2943
02:38:44,640 --> 02:38:47,677
>> It seems like a lot of people will try
to slow them down but yeah hope they get

2944
02:38:47,760 --> 02:38:50,637
far. >> Yeah. >> Another
difficult topic, immigration.

2945
02:38:50,720 --> 02:38:52,877
What's your take on the uh let's say

2946
02:38:52,960 --> 02:38:55,517
heated H-1B visa debate that's going on

2947
02:38:55,600 --> 02:38:59,037
online and legal immigration in general?

2948
02:38:59,120 --> 02:39:02,637
>> Yeah, so I should start by saying I am
not involved in any aspect of government

2949
02:39:02,720 --> 02:39:06,637
policy on this. I'm not planning to be
this is not an issue that I'm working on

2950
02:39:06,720 --> 02:39:09,517
or that I'm going to work on. I'm we're
not this is not part of the agenda of

2951
02:39:09,600 --> 02:39:13,197
what the firm is doing. So my firm
is doing. So like I'm not I'm not in I'm

2952
02:39:13,280 --> 02:39:17,197
not in this in the new administration
or the government. I'm not planning to be.

2953
02:39:17,280 --> 02:39:19,997
So purely just personal opinion. So I

2954
02:39:20,080 --> 02:39:24,477
would say I would describe as a complex
or nuanced hopefully nuanced view on on

2955
02:39:24,560 --> 02:39:27,117
this issue that's maybe a little bit
different than what a lot of my peers

2956
02:39:27,200 --> 02:39:31,517
have. Um and I think and I kind of thought
about this you know I didn't say

2957
02:39:31,600 --> 02:39:33,757
anything about it all the way through
the big kind of debate over Christmas

2958
02:39:33,840 --> 02:39:37,197
but I thought about it a lot read
everything. Um I think what I realized

2959
02:39:37,280 --> 02:39:40,157
is that I just have a very different
perspective on some of these things and

2960
02:39:40,240 --> 02:39:43,357
the reason is because of the combination
of where I came from and then where I

2961
02:39:43,440 --> 02:39:47,117
ended up. Um and so um let's start with

2962
02:39:47,200 --> 02:39:50,957
this. I where I ended up in Silicon
Valley. So, um, and I have made the

2963
02:39:51,040 --> 02:39:54,637
proskilled high skilled immigration
argument many, many times, the H-1B

2964
02:39:54,720 --> 02:39:59,117
argument many times in past lives.
I've been in DC many times, arguing with

2965
02:39:59,200 --> 02:40:03,037
prior administrations about this, always
on the side of trying to get more H1Bs

2966
02:40:03,120 --> 02:40:05,837
and trying to get more high skilled
immigration. Um, and, you know, I think

2967
02:40:05,920 --> 02:40:08,317
that argument is very strong and very

2968
02:40:08,400 --> 02:40:12,877
solid and very um, you know, has paid
off for the US in some in many many ways

2969
02:40:12,960 --> 02:40:15,437
and we can go through it, but I think
it's the argument everybody already

2970
02:40:15,520 --> 02:40:18,317
knows, right? It's like the stock You
take any Silicon Valley person, you

2971
02:40:18,400 --> 02:40:20,637
press the button and they tell you why
we need to brain drain the world to get

2972
02:40:20,720 --> 02:40:23,357
more H1Bs, right? So everybody
kind of gets that argument.

2973
02:40:23,440 --> 02:40:27,277
>> So it's basically just to summarize,
it's a mechanism by which you can get

2974
02:40:27,360 --> 02:40:28,717
super smart people from the rest of the

2975
02:40:28,800 --> 02:40:34,717
world, import them in, keep them here
to uh increase the productivity of the US

2976
02:40:34,800 --> 02:40:36,717
companies. >> Yeah.
and and then and then and then

2977
02:40:36,800 --> 02:40:40,237
that it's not just good for the them and
it's not just good for Silicon Valley or

2978
02:40:40,320 --> 02:40:42,877
the tech industry, it's good for the
country because they then create new

2979
02:40:42,960 --> 02:40:46,157
companies and create new technologies
and create new industries that then

2980
02:40:46,240 --> 02:40:49,517
create many more jobs for Americans,
nativeborn Americans than would have

2981
02:40:49,600 --> 02:40:53,597
previously existed. And so you've got
a it's a positive sum flywheel thing where

2982
02:40:53,680 --> 02:40:55,357
everybody wins like everybody wins.

2983
02:40:55,440 --> 02:40:59,277
There are no trade-offs. It's all
absolutely glorious in all directions.

2984
02:40:59,360 --> 02:41:02,957
You cannot possibly there cannot
possibly be a moral right argument

2985
02:41:03,040 --> 02:41:04,237
against it under any circumstances.

2986
02:41:04,320 --> 02:41:06,797
anybody who argues against it
is obviously doing so from a position of

2987
02:41:06,880 --> 02:41:11,677
racism is probably a fascist than a Nazi.
Right. [laughter] Right. I mean, >> right.

2988
02:41:11,760 --> 02:41:14,157
>> That's the thing. And like I said, I've
made that argument many times. I'm I'm

2989
02:41:14,240 --> 02:41:16,557
very comfortable with that argument. And
then I'd also say, look, I I I would say

2990
02:41:16,640 --> 02:41:19,517
number one, I believe a lot of it.
I'll talk about the parts I don't believe,

2991
02:41:19,600 --> 02:41:22,877
but I believe a lot of it. And then
the other part is look, I I benefit every

2992
02:41:22,960 --> 02:41:27,677
day. I I I always describe it as I work
in in the United Nations. like I my own

2993
02:41:27,760 --> 02:41:29,677
firm and our founders and our companies

2994
02:41:29,760 --> 02:41:33,197
and the industry um and my friends um

2995
02:41:33,280 --> 02:41:35,597
you know are just this like amazing you

2996
02:41:35,680 --> 02:41:41,277
know paniply cornucopia of people
from all over the world um and you know I

2997
02:41:41,360 --> 02:41:43,757
just I've worked I don't know at this
point with people from it's got to be I

2998
02:41:43,840 --> 02:41:46,557
don't know 80 countries or something
um and hopefully over time it'll be you

2999
02:41:46,640 --> 02:41:49,757
know the rest as well and you know it's
just it's been amazing and they've done

3000
02:41:49,840 --> 02:41:52,317
many of the most important things
in my industry and it's it's been really

3001
02:41:52,400 --> 02:41:56,637
remarkable so so that's all good um
and And then you know there's just the

3002
02:41:56,720 --> 02:41:59,197
practical version of the argument which
is we are the we are the main place

3003
02:41:59,280 --> 02:42:02,077
these people get educated anyway right
they the the best and the brightest tend

3004
02:42:02,160 --> 02:42:05,197
to come here to get educated and so you
know this is the old kind of Mitt Romney

3005
02:42:05,280 --> 02:42:08,557
staple of green card to every you
know at least you know maybe not every

3006
02:42:08,640 --> 02:42:13,037
university degree but every technical
degree maybe the sociologists we could

3007
02:42:13,120 --> 02:42:16,637
quibble about but you know
the roboticists for sure for sure for sure

3008
02:42:16,720 --> 02:42:18,877
we can all agree that >> at least
I won you over on something

3009
02:42:18,960 --> 02:42:22,477
today. Well, no.
I'm I'm exaggerating for effect. So,

3010
02:42:22,560 --> 02:42:24,957
>> and I lost you. I had you for a second.

3011
02:42:25,040 --> 02:42:26,637
>> I haven't gotten to the other
side of the argument yet.

3012
02:42:26,720 --> 02:42:29,597
>> Okay. Thank you.
>> So, surely we can all agree

3013
02:42:29,680 --> 02:42:31,597
>> that uh we need to staple a green card.

3014
02:42:31,680 --> 02:42:32,957
>> The roller coaster is going up.

3015
02:42:33,040 --> 02:42:36,717
>> The roller coaster is ratcheting slowly
up. So, um yeah. So, surely we can all

3016
02:42:36,800 --> 02:42:39,357
agree that the roboticist should all get
green cards. And again, like there's a

3017
02:42:39,440 --> 02:42:41,837
lot of merit to that. Obviously,
like look, we want the US to be the world

3018
02:42:41,920 --> 02:42:45,197
leader in robotics. What's step one
to being the world leader in robotics is

3019
02:42:45,280 --> 02:42:48,477
have all the great robotics people,
right? like you know very unlike the

3020
02:42:48,560 --> 02:42:51,357
underpants gnome it's like a very
straightforward formula right

3021
02:42:51,440 --> 02:42:53,917
>> all right that's all well and good
all right but it gets a little bit more

3022
02:42:54,000 --> 02:42:57,917
complicated um because um there is a
kind of argument that's sort of right

3023
02:42:58,000 --> 02:43:00,717
underneath that that you also hear
from you know these same people and I have

3024
02:43:00,800 --> 02:43:04,077
made this argument myself many times
which is we need to do this because we

3025
02:43:04,160 --> 02:43:07,437
don't have enough people in the US who
can do it otherwise right we have all

3026
02:43:07,520 --> 02:43:09,997
these unfilled jobs we've got all
these you know all these companies that

3027
02:43:10,080 --> 02:43:12,637
wouldn't exist we don't have enough good
founders we don't have enough engineers

3028
02:43:12,720 --> 02:43:15,517
we don't have enough scientists or or
then the next version of the argument

3029
02:43:15,600 --> 02:43:19,117
below that is our education system
is not good enough to generate those

3030
02:43:19,200 --> 02:43:22,797
people. Um, and which is a weird
argument by the way cuz like our

3031
02:43:22,880 --> 02:43:25,517
education system is good enough
for foreigners to be able to come here

3032
02:43:25,600 --> 02:43:29,117
preferentially in like a very large
number of cases but somehow not good

3033
02:43:29,200 --> 02:43:32,637
enough to educate our own nativeorn
people. So there's like a weird these

3034
02:43:32,720 --> 02:43:35,677
little cracks in the matrix that you can
kind of stick your fingernail into and

3035
02:43:35,760 --> 02:43:39,517
kind of wonder about and we'll come back
to that one but like at least yes our

3036
02:43:39,600 --> 02:43:42,717
education system has its flaws and then
and then underneath that is the is the

3037
02:43:42,800 --> 02:43:45,917
argument that you know VC made um
you know which is you know we have a

3038
02:43:46,000 --> 02:43:49,517
cultural rot in the country and you know
native born people in the country aren't

3039
02:43:49,600 --> 02:43:52,237
you know don't work hard enough and spend
too much time watching TV and Tik

3040
02:43:52,320 --> 02:43:56,397
Tok and don't spend enough time studying
differential you know equations. Um and

3041
02:43:56,480 --> 02:43:59,117
again it's like all right like you know
yeah there's a fair amount to that like

3042
02:43:59,200 --> 02:44:03,357
there's a lot of American culture
that um is um you know there's a lot of

3043
02:44:03,440 --> 02:44:06,397
frivvality there's a lot of you know
look I mean we have well doumented

3044
02:44:06,480 --> 02:44:10,077
social issues on many fronts many things
that cut against having a culture of

3045
02:44:10,160 --> 02:44:14,157
just like straightforward high
achievement and and effort and striving

3046
02:44:14,240 --> 02:44:17,197
anyway like you know those are the basic
arguments um but then I have this kind

3047
02:44:17,280 --> 02:44:20,557
of other side of my you know kind of
personality and thought process which is

3048
02:44:20,640 --> 02:44:24,397
well I grew up in a small farming town
in rural Wisconsin the rural Midwest and

3049
02:44:24,480 --> 02:44:27,357
you know it's interesting there's not
a lot of people who make it from rural

3050
02:44:27,440 --> 02:44:30,317
Wisconsin to, you know, high-tech.

3051
02:44:30,400 --> 02:44:34,237
Um, and so it's like, all right, why
is that exactly right? And and I know I'm

3052
02:44:34,320 --> 02:44:37,277
an aberration. Like I I was the only
one from anybody I ever knew who ever did

3053
02:44:37,360 --> 02:44:39,997
this, right? That I know what
an aberration I am and I know exactly how

3054
02:44:40,080 --> 02:44:43,917
that aberration happened and it's a very
unusual, you know, set of steps. Um,

3055
02:44:44,000 --> 02:44:48,317
including, you know, many that were were
just luck. Um, but like it there is in

3056
02:44:48,400 --> 02:44:50,637
no sense a talent flow from rural

3057
02:44:50,720 --> 02:44:53,917
Wisconsin into high-tech. Like not at

3058
02:44:54,000 --> 02:44:58,077
all. Um, there is also like in no
sense a talent flow from the rest of the

3059
02:44:58,160 --> 02:45:00,957
Midwest into high-tech. There is no
talent flow from the South into

3060
02:45:01,040 --> 02:45:03,917
high-tech. There is no flow from the
Sunb Belt into high-tech. There is no

3061
02:45:04,000 --> 02:45:08,397
flow from, you know, the Deep South into
high-tech. Like just like literally it's

3062
02:45:08,480 --> 02:45:12,877
like the blank SP there's this whole
section of the country that just where

3063
02:45:12,960 --> 02:45:17,117
the people just like for some reason
don't end up in tech. Now, that's a

3064
02:45:17,200 --> 02:45:20,717
little bit strange because these are
the people who put a man on the moon.

3065
02:45:20,800 --> 02:45:22,397
>> These are the people
who built the World

3066
02:45:22,480 --> 02:45:26,237
War II war machine. These are the people
at least their ancestors are the people

3067
02:45:26,320 --> 02:45:29,357
who built the second industrial
revolution and built the railroads and

3068
02:45:29,440 --> 02:45:32,717
built the telephone network telephone
network and built you know logistics and

3069
02:45:32,800 --> 02:45:35,357
transportation in the auto ind. I mean
the auto industry was built in Cleveland

3070
02:45:35,440 --> 02:45:39,197
and Detroit and so at least these
people's parents and grandparents and

3071
02:45:39,280 --> 02:45:42,317
great-grandparents somehow had
the wherewithal to like build all of this

3072
02:45:42,400 --> 02:45:45,517
like amazing things invent all these
things. And then there's many many many

3073
02:45:45,600 --> 02:45:49,597
many stories in the history of American
invention and innovation and capitalism

3074
02:45:49,680 --> 02:45:52,717
where you had people who grew up in the
middle of nowhere, Philo Farnsworth who

3075
02:45:52,800 --> 02:45:55,757
invented the television and just like
you know tons and tons of others endless

3076
02:45:55,840 --> 02:45:59,917
stories like this. Now you have like a
a puzzle, right, and a conundrum which is

3077
02:46:00,000 --> 02:46:03,917
like, okay, like what is happening
on the blank spot of the map? And then of

3078
02:46:04,000 --> 02:46:07,277
course you also can't help noticing that
the blank spot on the map, the Midwest,

3079
02:46:07,360 --> 02:46:11,357
the South, you've also just
defined Trump country, [laughter]

3080
02:46:11,440 --> 02:46:13,997
>> the Trump voter base, right? And it's
like, oh well, that's interesting. Like

3081
02:46:14,080 --> 02:46:15,917
how how did that happen, right? Right.

3082
02:46:16,000 --> 02:46:18,957
And so either you really really really
have to believe the very very strong

3083
02:46:19,040 --> 02:46:21,757
version of like the VC thesis or something
where you have to believe that

3084
02:46:21,840 --> 02:46:25,837
like that basically culture the whole
sort of civilization in the middle of

3085
02:46:25,920 --> 02:46:29,197
the country and the south of the country
is so like deeply flawed either

3086
02:46:29,280 --> 02:46:32,797
inherently flawed or culturally flawed
such that for whatever reason they are

3087
02:46:32,880 --> 02:46:35,917
not able to do the things that their you
know parents and grandparents were able

3088
02:46:36,000 --> 02:46:39,197
to do and that their peers were able to do
or something else is happening. Would

3089
02:46:39,280 --> 02:46:40,877
you care to guess on what
else is happening? You

3090
02:46:40,960 --> 02:46:42,397
>> mean what? Affirmative action.

3091
02:46:42,480 --> 02:46:47,677
>> Affirmative action. Okay,
[laughter] this is very think

3092
02:46:47,760 --> 02:46:48,797
about this is very entertaining, right?

3093
02:46:48,880 --> 02:46:51,677
What are the three things that we
know about affirmative action? It is

3094
02:46:51,760 --> 02:46:55,277
absolutely 100% necessary.

3095
02:46:55,360 --> 02:46:59,997
But however, it cannot explain the success
of any one individual, >> right?

3096
02:47:00,080 --> 02:47:02,157
>> Nor does it have any victims at all.

3097
02:47:02,240 --> 02:47:06,157
>> That could explain maybe
disproportionate, but like it it surely

3098
02:47:06,240 --> 02:47:10,557
doesn't explain why you're probably
the only person in Silicon Valley from

3099
02:47:10,640 --> 02:47:14,077
Wisconsin. What educational institution
in the last 60 years has wanted farm

3100
02:47:14,160 --> 02:47:17,757
boys from Wisconsin? >> But what
institution rejected farm boys

3101
02:47:17,840 --> 02:47:19,357
from Wisconsin? >> All of them.

3102
02:47:19,440 --> 02:47:22,077
>> All of them. >> Of course.
Okay. So, we know this. We

3103
02:47:22,160 --> 02:47:24,957
know this. The reason we know this is
because of the Harvard and UNCC court

3104
02:47:25,040 --> 02:47:28,317
Supreme Court cases. >> So,
this was like three years ago. These

3105
02:47:28,400 --> 02:47:30,397
were these were big court cases.
And you know that because the idea of

3106
02:47:30,480 --> 02:47:33,277
affirmative action has been litigated
for many many many years and through

3107
02:47:33,360 --> 02:47:36,237
many court cases. And the Supreme Court
repeatedly in the past had upheld that

3108
02:47:36,320 --> 02:47:39,437
it was a completely legitimate thing
to do. And a lot of these and there's

3109
02:47:39,520 --> 02:47:42,557
basically two categories of affirmative
action that like really matter, right?

3110
02:47:42,640 --> 02:47:46,077
The one is um the admissions into
educational institutions and then the

3111
02:47:46,160 --> 02:47:47,997
other is jobs, right? Getting hired.

3112
02:47:48,080 --> 02:47:49,677
Like those are the two biggest areas.

3113
02:47:49,760 --> 02:47:52,957
The education one is like super potent
has been a super potent political issue

3114
02:47:53,040 --> 02:47:55,597
for a very long time for all you know
people have written and talked about

3115
02:47:55,680 --> 02:47:57,757
this for many decades. I don't I don't
need to go through it. There's many

3116
02:47:57,840 --> 02:47:59,037
arguments for why it's important.

3117
02:47:59,120 --> 02:48:02,157
There's many arguments as to how it
could backfire. It's been this thing.

3118
02:48:02,240 --> 02:48:06,317
But the Supreme Court upheld it
for a very long time. Um the most the most

3119
02:48:06,400 --> 02:48:07,597
recent ruling I don't I'm not a lawyer.

3120
02:48:07,680 --> 02:48:11,917
I don't have the exact reference in my
head, but there was a case in 2003 that

3121
02:48:12,000 --> 02:48:16,557
said that um Sandra Day Oconor famously
wrote that um you know it although it

3122
02:48:16,640 --> 02:48:20,077
had been 30 years of affirmative action
and although it was not working remotely

3123
02:48:20,160 --> 02:48:24,237
as it had had been intended um uh she
said that you know well basically we

3124
02:48:24,320 --> 02:48:27,357
need to try it for another 25 years
but she said basically as a message to

3125
02:48:27,440 --> 02:48:30,637
future Supreme Court justices if it
hasn't resolved basic basically the

3126
02:48:30,720 --> 02:48:33,677
issues it's intended to resolve within
25 years then we should probably call it

3127
02:48:33,760 --> 02:48:35,837
off. By the way we're coming up on the

3128
02:48:35,920 --> 02:48:41,117
25 years. It's couple it's a couple
years away. Uh the Supreme Court just uh

3129
02:48:41,200 --> 02:48:44,157
had these cases. It was a Harvard case
and I think a UT University of North

3130
02:48:44,240 --> 02:48:47,437
Carolina case. And what's interesting
about those cases is the the lawyers in

3131
02:48:47,520 --> 02:48:51,597
those cases put a tremendous amount
of evidence into the record of how the

3132
02:48:51,680 --> 02:48:53,677
admissions decisions actually happen um

3133
02:48:53,760 --> 02:48:56,637
at Harvard and happen at UNC. And it is

3134
02:48:56,720 --> 02:48:58,877
like every bit as cartoonishly garish

3135
02:48:58,960 --> 02:49:04,637
and racist as you could possibly imagine
because it's a ring of power. And if

3136
02:49:04,720 --> 02:49:07,437
you're an admissions officer at a private
university or an administrator,

3137
02:49:07,520 --> 02:49:11,437
you have unlimited power to do what you
want and you can justify any of it under

3138
02:49:11,520 --> 02:49:16,077
any of these rules or systems. Um,
and up until these cases, it had been a

3139
02:49:16,160 --> 02:49:18,877
black box where you didn't have to explain
yourself and show your work. And

3140
02:49:18,960 --> 02:49:22,077
and what the Harvard and USC cases did
is they basically required showing the

3141
02:49:22,160 --> 02:49:26,157
work. And so they and there was like all
kinds of like phenomenal detail. I mean,

3142
02:49:26,240 --> 02:49:28,877
number one is there were text messages
in there that will just curl your hair

3143
02:49:28,960 --> 02:49:31,997
of people of students being spoken
of and just like crude racial stereotypes

3144
02:49:32,080 --> 02:49:35,277
that would just make you want to jump
out the window. It's horrible stuff. But

3145
02:49:35,360 --> 02:49:38,797
also, um, there was statistical
information. And of course, the big

3146
02:49:38,880 --> 02:49:42,077
statistical kicker to the whole thing
is that at top institutions, it's common

3147
02:49:42,160 --> 02:49:43,757
for diff different ethnic groups to have

3148
02:49:43,840 --> 02:49:46,637
different cutoffs for SAT, uh, that are

3149
02:49:46,720 --> 02:49:49,757
as wide as 400 points. Um, right? So

3150
02:49:49,840 --> 02:49:52,477
different groups. So it so so a

3151
02:49:52,560 --> 02:49:56,877
specifically Asians need to perform
at 400 SAT points higher than other

3152
02:49:56,960 --> 02:49:59,437
ethnicities in order to actually get
admitted into these I mean this is not

3153
02:49:59,520 --> 02:50:01,917
even about I mean white people are
a part of this but like Asians are like a

3154
02:50:02,000 --> 02:50:04,717
very big part of this and actually the
the Harvard case is actually brought by

3155
02:50:04,800 --> 02:50:07,597
an activist on behalf of actually
the Asian students who are being turned

3156
02:50:07,680 --> 02:50:11,677
away. Um, and it it's basically I mean
it's the cliche now in in in the valley

3157
02:50:11,760 --> 02:50:14,317
and in the medical community which is like
if you want a super genius you hire

3158
02:50:14,400 --> 02:50:18,477
an Asian from Harvard cuz they are
guaranteed to be freaking Einstein cuz

3159
02:50:18,560 --> 02:50:21,757
if they weren't they were never getting
admitted right almost all the qualified

3160
02:50:21,840 --> 02:50:25,197
Asians get turned away. Um so they've

3161
02:50:25,280 --> 02:50:29,197
been running this it's a very very
explicit very very clear program. Um

3162
02:50:29,280 --> 02:50:31,837
this of course has been a third rail
of things that people are not supposed to

3163
02:50:31,920 --> 02:50:35,517
discuss or under any circumstances.
Um the thing that has really changed the

3164
02:50:35,600 --> 02:50:37,117
tenor on this is I think two things.

3165
02:50:37,200 --> 02:50:40,637
Number one, those Supreme Court cases,
the Supreme Court ruled that they can no

3166
02:50:40,720 --> 02:50:44,637
longer do that. I will tell you,
I don't believe there's a single education

3167
02:50:44,720 --> 02:50:46,957
institution in America that is
conforming with the Supreme Court

3168
02:50:47,040 --> 02:50:50,877
ruling. Um, I think they are all
flagrantly ignoring it. And we we could

3169
02:50:50,960 --> 02:50:53,517
talk about that >> mostly because
of momentum probably or what?

3170
02:50:53,600 --> 02:50:55,757
>> They are trying to make the world
a better place. They are trying to solve

3171
02:50:55,840 --> 02:50:59,117
all these social problems.
They are trying to have diverse student

3172
02:50:59,200 --> 02:51:02,397
populations. They are trying to live
up to the expectations of their donors.

3173
02:51:02,480 --> 02:51:06,557
They are trying to make their faculty
happy. they are trying to um have their

3174
02:51:06,640 --> 02:51:09,757
friends and family think that
they're good people, >> right?

3175
02:51:09,840 --> 02:51:12,957
>> They're trying to have the press
write nice things about them.

3176
02:51:13,040 --> 02:51:15,037
Like it's nearly impossible for them.

3177
02:51:15,120 --> 02:51:18,237
And and you know, to be clear, like
nobody has been fired from an admissions

3178
02:51:18,320 --> 02:51:22,237
office for, you know, 25 years of prior
what we now the Supreme Court now has

3179
02:51:22,320 --> 02:51:25,357
ruled to be illegality. Um and so
they're all the same people under the

3180
02:51:25,440 --> 02:51:29,517
exact same pressures. Um, and so, um,
like I, you know, the numbers are moving

3181
02:51:29,600 --> 02:51:32,557
a little bit, but like I don't think
I don't know anybody in the system who

3182
02:51:32,640 --> 02:51:35,597
thinks that they're complying with the
Supreme Court. Like who's in charge in

3183
02:51:35,680 --> 02:51:39,437
the rank ordering of who rules who, the
universities rule the Supreme Court way

3184
02:51:39,520 --> 02:51:42,477
more than the Supreme Court rules
the universities, right? Well, another

3185
02:51:42,560 --> 02:51:44,957
example of that is I think it's is
that every sitting member of the Supreme

3186
02:51:45,040 --> 02:51:48,797
Court right now went to either Harvard
or or Yale, right? Like the the level of

3187
02:51:48,880 --> 02:51:51,197
incestuousness here is like any anyway.

3188
02:51:51,280 --> 02:51:54,477
So, so there's that and so so this has
been running for a very long time. So

3189
02:51:54,560 --> 02:51:57,517
one is the Harvard and UNCC cases kind
of gave up the game number one or at

3190
02:51:57,600 --> 02:52:00,637
least show showed what the mechanism was.
Uh and then number two, the other

3191
02:52:00,720 --> 02:52:04,077
thing is obviously the the aftermath
of October 7th, right? Um and what we

3192
02:52:04,160 --> 02:52:07,677
discovered was happening with Jewish
applicants. Um and what was happening at

3193
02:52:07,760 --> 02:52:10,397
all the top institutions for Jewish
applicants was they were being managed

3194
02:52:10,480 --> 02:52:13,117
down being actively managed down as a

3195
02:52:13,200 --> 02:52:16,637
percentage of the of of the base. Um and

3196
02:52:16,720 --> 02:52:21,117
um let's say I I've heard reports
of like extremely explicit um uh basically

3197
02:52:21,200 --> 02:52:24,797
plans to manage to manage the Jewish
admissions down to their representative

3198
02:52:24,880 --> 02:52:28,317
percentage of the US population which
is 2%. And and you know there's a whole

3199
02:52:28,400 --> 02:52:31,277
backstory here which is 100 years ago
Jews were not admitted into a lot of

3200
02:52:31,360 --> 02:52:34,317
these institutions and then there was
a big campaign to get them in. Once they

3201
02:52:34,400 --> 02:52:37,597
could get in they immediately became 30%
of these institutions because there's so

3202
02:52:37,680 --> 02:52:42,397
many smart talented Jews. So it went
from 0% to 30% and then the most recent

3203
02:52:42,480 --> 02:52:45,757
generation of leadership has been
trying to get it down to 2%. And a lot of

3204
02:52:45,840 --> 02:52:49,437
Jewish people, at least a lot of Jewish
people I know, sort of they kind of knew

3205
02:52:49,520 --> 02:52:53,037
this was happening, but they discovered
it the hard way uh after October 7th,

3206
02:52:53,120 --> 02:52:56,797
right? And so all of a sudden, so so
basically the the Supreme Court case

3207
02:52:56,880 --> 02:53:00,957
meant that you could address this in
terms of the Asian victims. The October

3208
02:53:01,040 --> 02:53:04,317
7th meant that you could address it
in terms of the Jewish victims. And for

3209
02:53:04,400 --> 02:53:07,437
sure both of those groups are being
systematically excluded, right? And then

3210
02:53:07,520 --> 02:53:10,797
of course um there's the thing that you
basically can't talk about which is all

3211
02:53:10,880 --> 02:53:13,277
the white people are being excluded.

3212
02:53:13,360 --> 02:53:17,677
And then it turns out it's also
happening to black people. And this is

3213
02:53:17,760 --> 02:53:22,237
the thing that like blew my freaking
mind when I found out about it. So um I

3214
02:53:22,320 --> 02:53:26,397
just assumed that like this was great
news for like American blacks because

3215
02:53:26,480 --> 02:53:29,517
like you know obviously if you know
whites, Asians and Jews are being

3216
02:53:29,600 --> 02:53:32,237
excluded then you know the whole point
of this in the beginning was to get the

3217
02:53:32,320 --> 02:53:35,917
black population up and so this must
be great for American blacks. So then I

3218
02:53:36,000 --> 02:53:40,717
discovered this New York Times article
from 2004 u called u blacks are being

3219
02:53:40,800 --> 02:53:45,517
admitted into top schools
at greater numbers but which ones?

3220
02:53:45,600 --> 02:53:48,077
>> Uhoh. >> And again
by the way this is in the New

3221
02:53:48,160 --> 02:53:52,397
York Times. This is not in like you know
whatever national review. This is New

3222
02:53:52,480 --> 02:53:55,357
York Times uh 2004. And the two
authorities that were quoted in the

3223
02:53:55,440 --> 02:53:59,117
story are Henry Lewis Gates who's the dean
of the African-American studies you

3224
02:53:59,200 --> 02:54:00,717
know community in the United States.

3225
02:54:00,800 --> 02:54:02,157
Super brilliant guy. And then Lonni

3226
02:54:02,240 --> 02:54:05,757
Guineir who was a she was a potential

3227
02:54:05,840 --> 02:54:09,597
Supreme Court uh appointee under I think
uh close friend of Hillary Clinton and

3228
02:54:09,680 --> 02:54:12,397
there was for a long time she was on the
short list for Supreme Court. So one of

3229
02:54:12,480 --> 02:54:17,677
the top you know jurists lawyers
in the country both black um sort of

3230
02:54:17,760 --> 02:54:21,277
legendarily successful in their in their
in the academic and legal worlds. Um and

3231
02:54:21,360 --> 02:54:23,437
black um and they are quoted as the

3232
02:54:23,520 --> 02:54:24,957
authorities in this story and the story

3233
02:54:25,040 --> 02:54:28,477
that they tell is actually very it's

3234
02:54:28,560 --> 02:54:32,237
amazing. Um and by the way it's
happening today in uh education

3235
02:54:32,320 --> 02:54:34,717
institutions and it's happening
in companies and you can see it all over

3236
02:54:34,800 --> 02:54:37,917
the place and the government um which is

3237
02:54:38,000 --> 02:54:42,797
um at least at that time the number
was half of the black admits into a place

3238
02:54:42,880 --> 02:54:44,317
like Harvard were not Americanborn

3239
02:54:44,400 --> 02:54:47,117
blacks they were foreignb born blacks um

3240
02:54:47,200 --> 02:54:50,957
specifically u uh northern African off

3241
02:54:51,040 --> 02:54:54,797
generally Nigerian um or west Indian um

3242
02:54:54,880 --> 02:54:58,877
right um and by the way many Nigerians
and northern Africans have come to the

3243
02:54:58,960 --> 02:54:59,837
and have been very successful.

3244
02:54:59,920 --> 02:55:02,957
Nigerian-Americans as a group like way
outperformed. They're, you know, this a

3245
02:55:03,040 --> 02:55:05,997
super smart cohort of people.
And then West Indian blacks in the US are

3246
02:55:06,080 --> 02:55:10,157
incredibly successful. Um, most recently,
by the way, Kla Harris as well

3247
02:55:10,240 --> 02:55:14,637
as Colon Powell like just two sort
of examples of that. And so basically what

3248
02:55:14,720 --> 02:55:18,317
Henry Lewis Gates and Lana Grineer said
in the story is Harvard is basically

3249
02:55:18,400 --> 02:55:22,557
struggling to either whatever it
was identify, recruit, make successful,

3250
02:55:22,640 --> 02:55:26,557
whatever it was, Americanborn native
blacks. And so therefore they were using

3251
02:55:26,640 --> 02:55:29,837
high school immigration, high school
immigration as an escape hatch to go get

3252
02:55:29,920 --> 02:55:34,317
blocks from other countries. Um and then
and then this was 2004 when you could

3253
02:55:34,400 --> 02:55:36,637
discuss such things. Um obviously that

3254
02:55:36,720 --> 02:55:41,757
is a topic that nobody has discussed
since. It has sailed on. All of the DEI

3255
02:55:41,840 --> 02:55:45,677
programs of the last 20 years have had
this exact characteristic. Um there's

3256
02:55:45,760 --> 02:55:48,717
large numbers of black people in America
who are fully aware of this and are like

3257
02:55:48,800 --> 02:55:51,997
it's obviously not us that are getting
these slots where we're obviously we're

3258
02:55:52,080 --> 02:55:55,437
literally competing with people who are
being imported and and you know if you

3259
02:55:55,520 --> 02:55:57,917
believe in the basis of affirmative
action you are trying to make up for

3260
02:55:58,000 --> 02:56:01,597
historical injustice of American black
slavery. So the idea that you're import

3261
02:56:01,680 --> 02:56:06,237
somebody from you know Nigeria that
never experienced that um you know is

3262
02:56:06,320 --> 02:56:10,237
like tremendously insulting to to to
black Americans. Anyway, so you can see

3263
02:56:10,320 --> 02:56:13,597
where I'm heading with this.
We have been in a 60-year social engineer

3264
02:56:13,680 --> 02:56:17,597
engineering experiment to exclude
nativeborn people from the educational

3265
02:56:17,680 --> 02:56:20,237
slots and jobs that high school
immigration has been funneling

3266
02:56:20,320 --> 02:56:24,317
foreigners into, right? And so it
turns out it's not a victim-free thing.

3267
02:56:24,400 --> 02:56:27,757
There's there's like 100% there's
victims cuz why? There's only so many

3268
02:56:27,840 --> 02:56:30,557
for sure there's only so many education
slots and then for sure there's only so

3269
02:56:30,640 --> 02:56:33,997
many of these jobs, right? You know
Google only hires so many, you know,

3270
02:56:34,080 --> 02:56:36,157
whatever level seven engineers, right?

3271
02:56:36,240 --> 02:56:38,077
And so so so that's the other side of

3272
02:56:38,160 --> 02:56:40,557
it, right? And so you're a farm boy in

3273
02:56:40,640 --> 02:56:45,117
Wisconsin, right? Or a, you know, black
American whose ancestors arrived here,

3274
02:56:45,200 --> 02:56:46,877
you know, on a slave ship 300 years ago

3275
02:56:46,960 --> 02:56:49,917
in Louisiana or a, you know, Cambodian

3276
02:56:50,000 --> 02:56:55,037
immigrant in, you know, the Bronx. Um,
and you're a kid or a Jewish immigrant,

3277
02:56:55,120 --> 02:56:58,717
uh, or, you know, from a very successful
Jewish family. Um, and you know, your

3278
02:56:58,800 --> 02:57:01,997
entire, you know, for three generations,
you and your parents and grandparents

3279
02:57:02,080 --> 02:57:03,837
went to Harvard. And what all of those

3280
02:57:03,920 --> 02:57:05,677
groups know is the system that has been

3281
02:57:05,760 --> 02:57:09,037
created is not for them, right? It's

3282
02:57:09,120 --> 02:57:11,037
designed specifically to exclude them.

3283
02:57:11,120 --> 02:57:14,077
And then what happens is all of these
tech people show up in public and say,

3284
02:57:14,160 --> 02:57:16,397
"Yeah, let's bring in more foreigners."

3285
02:57:16,480 --> 02:57:19,757
Right? And so so anyway, so the the
the short version of it is you can't

3286
02:57:19,840 --> 02:57:23,917
anymore, I don't think, just have
the the the um the the the quote high skil

3287
02:57:24,000 --> 02:57:28,877
immigration conversation for either
education or for um uh or for employment

3288
02:57:28,960 --> 02:57:32,717
without also having the DEI conversation.
Um and then underneath and

3289
02:57:32,800 --> 02:57:35,037
then DEI is just another word
for affirmative action. So it's it's the

3290
02:57:35,120 --> 02:57:38,077
affirmative action conversation and you
you need to actually deal with this it

3291
02:57:38,160 --> 02:57:40,317
substance and to see what's actually
happening to people who needed to join

3292
02:57:40,400 --> 02:57:45,117
these topics and and and I think it
is much harder to make the moral claim for

3293
02:57:45,200 --> 02:57:48,957
high school immigration given the the
the extent to which DEI took over both

3294
02:57:49,040 --> 02:57:52,237
the education hiring uh education
process and the and the hiring process.

3295
02:57:52,320 --> 02:57:56,877
>> Okay. So first of all that was
brilliantly laid out the nuance of it.

3296
02:57:56,960 --> 02:58:01,197
So, just to understand, it's not so
much a criticism of H1B, high skilled

3297
02:58:01,280 --> 02:58:03,197
immigration. It's that there needs to be

3298
02:58:03,280 --> 02:58:06,637
more people saying, "Yay, we need more

3299
02:58:06,720 --> 02:58:10,237
Americanborn hires." >> So,
I spent the entire Christmas holiday

3300
02:58:10,320 --> 02:58:13,567
reading every message on this and not
saying anything. And what I was,

3301
02:58:13,650 --> 02:58:17,517
[laughter] which you know me well
enough to know that's a serious level of

3302
02:58:17,600 --> 02:58:20,157
>> Yeah, that was very zen.
>> Yes. Thank you. Thank you. No, it

3303
02:58:20,240 --> 02:58:23,837
wasn't. There was tremendous rage on
the other side of it, but we I suppressed

3304
02:58:23,920 --> 02:58:28,317
it. So, um, I was waiting for the dog that

3305
02:58:28,400 --> 02:58:31,997
didn't bark, right? And the dog that
didn't bark was I did not, and you tell

3306
02:58:32,080 --> 02:58:34,797
me if you saw one, I did not see
a single example of somebody pounding the

3307
02:58:34,880 --> 02:58:37,757
table for more high school immigration
who was also pounding the table to go

3308
02:58:37,840 --> 02:58:41,597
get more smart kids who are already here
uh, into these educational institutions

3309
02:58:41,680 --> 02:58:44,557
and into these jobs. I didn't
see I didn't see a single one.

3310
02:58:44,640 --> 02:58:49,037
>> That's true. I I I think I agree with
that. There's there really was a divide,

3311
02:58:49,120 --> 02:58:51,997
>> but it was like literally it was like
the proponents of five skilled immigrant

3312
02:58:52,080 --> 02:58:54,717
and again, this was me for a very long
time. I mean, I kind of took myself by

3313
02:58:54,800 --> 02:58:58,637
surprise on this because I was on,
you know, I I I I had the much say simpler

3314
02:58:58,720 --> 02:59:01,037
version of this story for a very
long and like I said, I I've been in

3315
02:59:01,120 --> 02:59:03,997
Washington many times under past
presidents lobbing for this, by the way,

3316
02:59:04,080 --> 02:59:06,797
never made any progress, which we
could talk about, like it never actually

3317
02:59:06,880 --> 02:59:10,557
worked. Um but um you know I I've been
on the other side of this one but I was

3318
02:59:10,640 --> 02:59:13,117
literally sitting there and being like
all right which of these like super

3319
02:59:13,200 --> 02:59:16,637
geniuses um who you know many of whom
by the way are very you know successful

3320
02:59:16,720 --> 02:59:20,077
high school immigrants or children of high
school immigrants you know which of

3321
02:59:20,160 --> 02:59:23,357
these super geniuses are going
to like say actually we have this like

3322
02:59:23,440 --> 02:59:25,997
incredible talent source here in the
country which again to be clear I'm not

3323
02:59:26,080 --> 02:59:28,397
talking about white people I'm talking
about native born Americans whites

3324
02:59:28,480 --> 02:59:32,637
Asians Jews blacks for sure >>
for sure for sure those four groups

3325
02:59:32,720 --> 02:59:36,237
>> but also white people.
Yeah. And and also white people,

3326
02:59:36,320 --> 02:59:38,557
>> people that are making the case for

3327
02:59:38,640 --> 02:59:41,277
Americanborn hires

3328
02:59:41,360 --> 02:59:44,237
are usually not also supporting H-1B.

3329
02:59:44,320 --> 02:59:46,797
This is it's an extreme divide and those

3330
02:59:46,880 --> 02:59:48,317
people that are making that case are

3331
02:59:48,400 --> 02:59:53,357
often not making it in a way that's like

3332
02:59:53,440 --> 02:59:55,917
uh m making it in quite a radical way.

3333
02:59:56,000 --> 02:59:57,757
Let's put it this way. >> Yeah.
But you have this interesting

3334
02:59:57,840 --> 03:00:00,317
thing. You have a split between
the sides that I've noticed which is one

3335
03:00:00,400 --> 03:00:02,637
side has all of the experts. >> Right.

3336
03:00:02,720 --> 03:00:06,157
>> Right. And I and I'm using scare
for people listening to audio. I'm making

3337
03:00:06,240 --> 03:00:08,637
quotes in the air with my fingers
as vigorously as I can.

3338
03:00:08,720 --> 03:00:10,957
>> One side has all the certified experts.

3339
03:00:11,040 --> 03:00:13,277
>> The other side just has a bunch
of people who are like they know that

3340
03:00:13,360 --> 03:00:15,997
something is wrong and they don't
quite know how to explain it.

3341
03:00:16,080 --> 03:00:18,877
>> And what was so unusual about
the Harvard UNCC cases by the way in front

3342
03:00:18,960 --> 03:00:21,677
of Supreme Court is they actually had
sophisticated lawyers for the first time

3343
03:00:21,760 --> 03:00:24,157
in a long time actually put all this
evidence together and actually put it in

3344
03:00:24,240 --> 03:00:27,757
the public record. They actually they
actually had experts which is just which

3345
03:00:27,840 --> 03:00:30,717
is just really rare. Generally what you
get is you get because if you don't have

3346
03:00:30,800 --> 03:00:33,197
experts what do you have? you know
something is wrong and you have but you

3347
03:00:33,280 --> 03:00:35,357
have primarily an emotional response.

3348
03:00:35,440 --> 03:00:39,517
You feel it. But can you put it,
you know, can you put it in the words and

3349
03:00:39,600 --> 03:00:43,597
tables and charts, you know, that that
a certified expert can and no, you can't.

3350
03:00:43,680 --> 03:00:45,917
Like that's not, you know, that's not
who you are. That doesn't mean that

3351
03:00:46,000 --> 03:00:49,597
you're wrong. And it also doesn't mean
that you have less of a moral stance. Um

3352
03:00:49,680 --> 03:00:52,397
yeah, and so it's just like, all right,
now by the way, look, I think there's

3353
03:00:52,480 --> 03:00:54,717
there I think there are ways to square
the circle. I think there's a way to

3354
03:00:54,800 --> 03:00:57,677
have our cake and eat it, too. Like I
I think there'd be many ways to resolve

3355
03:00:57,760 --> 03:01:01,597
this. Um I I think again I think the way
to do it is to look at these these these

3356
03:01:01,680 --> 03:01:04,157
issues combined. Look at DEI combined

3357
03:01:04,240 --> 03:01:09,037
with um high school immigration. It so
happens that DEI um is under much more

3358
03:01:09,120 --> 03:01:13,117
scrutiny today than it has been for
probably 20 years. Affirmative action is

3359
03:01:13,200 --> 03:01:15,597
um the Supreme Court did just rule that

3360
03:01:15,680 --> 03:01:18,317
it is not legal um for universities to

3361
03:01:18,400 --> 03:01:20,557
do that. They are still doing it but

3362
03:01:20,640 --> 03:01:24,397
they should stop. Um and then there are

3363
03:01:24,480 --> 03:01:29,037
more and more you've seen more companies
now also dishing their DEI programs.

3364
03:01:29,120 --> 03:01:32,397
>> Um in part that's happening for a bunch
of reasons, but it's happening in part

3365
03:01:32,480 --> 03:01:36,077
because a lot of corporate lawyers will
tell you that the Supreme Court rulings

3366
03:01:36,160 --> 03:01:41,117
in education either already apply
to businesses or it just is a clear

3367
03:01:41,200 --> 03:01:43,837
foreshadowing the Supreme Court
will rule on new cases that will ban

3368
03:01:43,920 --> 03:01:46,957
businesses. And so so so there there is

3369
03:01:47,040 --> 03:01:51,917
a moment here to be able to look at
this um on both sides. Um, let me add one

3370
03:01:52,000 --> 03:01:54,317
more nuance to it though that
makes it even more complicated.

3371
03:01:54,400 --> 03:01:56,317
>> Yeah. >> So, the cliche
is we're going to brain

3372
03:01:56,400 --> 03:01:58,637
drain the world, right? You've heard that.
We're going to we're going to take

3373
03:01:58,720 --> 03:02:00,877
all the smart people from all over
the world. We're going to bring them here.

3374
03:02:00,960 --> 03:02:02,477
We're going to educate them and then
we're going to keep them and then

3375
03:02:02,560 --> 03:02:04,637
they're going to raise their families
here, create businesses here, create

3376
03:02:04,720 --> 03:02:07,757
jobs here, right? >> In the cliche,
that's a super positive thing.

3377
03:02:07,840 --> 03:02:11,997
>> Yeah. Okay. So, what happens
to the rest of the world?

3378
03:02:12,080 --> 03:02:14,957
>> They lose. >> Well,

3379
03:02:15,040 --> 03:02:18,637
how funible are people?

3380
03:02:18,720 --> 03:02:21,437
How many highly ambitious, highly

3381
03:02:21,520 --> 03:02:23,837
conscientious, highly energetic, high

3382
03:02:23,920 --> 03:02:28,797
achieving, high IQ super geniuses are
there in the world? And if there's a

3383
03:02:28,880 --> 03:02:33,437
lot, that's great. But if there just
aren't that many and they all come here

3384
03:02:33,520 --> 03:02:37,117
and they all aren't where they would
be otherwise, what happens to all those

3385
03:02:37,200 --> 03:02:41,117
other places? So,
it's almost impossible for us here

3386
03:02:41,200 --> 03:02:43,917
to have that conversation in part
because we become incredibly

3387
03:02:44,000 --> 03:02:46,797
uncomfortable as a society talking about
the fact that people aren't just simply

3388
03:02:46,880 --> 03:02:49,837
all the same. um which
is a whole thing we could talk

3389
03:02:49,920 --> 03:02:54,477
about but um also we we are purely the
beneficiary of this effect right we are

3390
03:02:54,560 --> 03:02:58,477
brain draining the world not the other
way around there's only four so if you

3391
03:02:58,560 --> 03:03:01,597
look at the flow of high skill
immigration over time there's only four

3392
03:03:01,680 --> 03:03:05,597
permanent syncs of high skill
immigration places people go it's the US

3393
03:03:05,680 --> 03:03:08,877
Canada the UK and Australia
it's the it's >> what Australia

3394
03:03:08,960 --> 03:03:11,757
>> it's the four it's four of the five
five eyes it's the major angloposphere

3395
03:03:11,840 --> 03:03:15,277
countries and so for those countries
this there this seems like a no- lose

3396
03:03:15,360 --> 03:03:19,597
proposition it's all the other countries
that basically what what we what we four

3397
03:03:19,680 --> 03:03:22,157
countries have been doing is draining
all the smart people out. It's actually

3398
03:03:22,240 --> 03:03:25,117
much easier for people in Europe to talk
about this I've discovered. um because

3399
03:03:25,200 --> 03:03:28,877
the Euro zone is whatever you know 28
countries and within the Euro zone the

3400
03:03:28,960 --> 03:03:33,197
high-killed people over time have been
migrating to originally the UK but also

3401
03:03:33,280 --> 03:03:36,717
specifically I think it's
the Netherlands um Germany and France but

3402
03:03:36,800 --> 03:03:40,397
specifically they've been migrating out
of the peripheral Eurosone countries and

3403
03:03:40,480 --> 03:03:44,237
the the the one where this really hit
the fan was in Greece right so you know

3404
03:03:44,320 --> 03:03:47,117
Greece falls into chaos disaster
and then you know you're running the

3405
03:03:47,200 --> 03:03:49,117
government in Greece and you're trying
to figure out how to put an economic

3406
03:03:49,200 --> 03:03:51,517
development plan together

3407
03:03:51,600 --> 03:03:53,917
all of your smart young kids have left

3408
03:03:54,000 --> 03:03:56,157
like what are you going to do, right?

3409
03:03:56,240 --> 03:04:00,797
Um, by the way, this is a potential I
know you care a lot about Ukraine. This

3410
03:04:00,880 --> 03:04:03,757
is a potential crisis for Ukraine. Not
[clears throat] because in part because

3411
03:04:03,840 --> 03:04:06,797
of this, because we enthusiastically
recruit Ukrainians, of course, and so

3412
03:04:06,880 --> 03:04:09,357
we've been drain brain draining
Ukraine for a long time,

3413
03:04:09,440 --> 03:04:12,557
>> but also of course, you know, war does
tend to cause people to to migrate out.

3414
03:04:12,640 --> 03:04:16,077
And so, you know, when it comes time
for Ukraine to rebuild as a peaceful

3415
03:04:16,160 --> 03:04:20,157
country, is it going to have the talent
base even that it had 5 years ago is

3416
03:04:20,240 --> 03:04:21,917
like a very big and important question.

3417
03:04:22,000 --> 03:04:24,877
By the way, Russia, like we have brain
drained a lot of really smart people out

3418
03:04:24,960 --> 03:04:27,917
of Russia. A lot of them are here,
right, over the last, you know, 30

3419
03:04:28,000 --> 03:04:32,477
years. Um, and so there's this thing,
it's actually really funny if you think

3420
03:04:32,560 --> 03:04:35,917
about it, like the one thing that we
know to be the height of absolute evil

3421
03:04:36,000 --> 03:04:40,397
that the West ever did was colonization
>> and resource extraction, right? So, we

3422
03:04:40,480 --> 03:04:43,757
know the height of absolute evil was when
the Portuguese and the English and,

3423
03:04:43,840 --> 03:04:46,477
you know, everybody else went and had
these colonies and then went in and we,

3424
03:04:46,560 --> 03:04:48,877
you know, took all the oil or we took
all the diamonds or we took all the

3425
03:04:48,960 --> 03:04:51,597
whatever lithium or whatever it is, right?

3426
03:04:51,680 --> 03:04:54,397
Well, for some reason we realize that
that's a deeply evil thing to do when

3427
03:04:54,480 --> 03:04:58,477
it's a physical resource, when it's
a non-concious physical matter. Um, for

3428
03:04:58,560 --> 03:05:01,357
some reason, we think it's completely
morally acceptable to do it with human

3429
03:05:01,440 --> 03:05:05,997
capital. In fact, we think it's glorious
and beautiful and wonderful and, you

3430
03:05:06,080 --> 03:05:09,757
know, the great flowering of of of peace
and harmony and and moral justice of our

3431
03:05:09,840 --> 03:05:12,877
time to do it. And we don't think
for one second what we're doing to the

3432
03:05:12,960 --> 03:05:16,797
countries that we're pulling all these
people out of. And I I this is one of

3433
03:05:16,880 --> 03:05:19,357
these things like I don't know like
maybe we're just going to live in this

3434
03:05:19,440 --> 03:05:22,237
delusional state forever and we'll just
keep doing it and it'll keep benefiting

3435
03:05:22,320 --> 03:05:23,837
us and we just won't care what happens.

3436
03:05:23,920 --> 03:05:26,557
But like I I think there may come
this is one of these this is like one of

3437
03:05:26,640 --> 03:05:30,237
these submarines under 10 ft under
the water line. Like I think it's just a

3438
03:05:30,320 --> 03:05:33,917
matter of time until people suddenly
realize oh my god what are we doing cuz

3439
03:05:34,000 --> 03:05:38,637
like we need the rest of the world
to succeed too, right? Like we need these

3440
03:05:38,720 --> 03:05:41,357
other countries to like flourish. Like
we don't want to be the only successful

3441
03:05:41,440 --> 03:05:44,877
country in the middle of just like
complete chaos and disaster and we just

3442
03:05:44,960 --> 03:05:48,237
extract and we extract and we extract
and we don't think twice about it.

3443
03:05:48,320 --> 03:05:50,877
>> Well, this is so deeply profound

3444
03:05:50,960 --> 03:05:54,077
actually. So what is the cost of winning

3445
03:05:54,160 --> 03:05:56,237
quote unquote? If these countries are

3446
03:05:56,320 --> 03:05:59,357
drained in terms of human capital

3447
03:05:59,440 --> 03:06:01,597
on the on the level of geopolitics, what

3448
03:06:01,680 --> 03:06:03,597
does that lead to? Even if we talk about

3449
03:06:03,680 --> 03:06:06,477
wars and conflict and all of this, we

3450
03:06:06,560 --> 03:06:09,917
actually want them to be strong in the

3451
03:06:10,000 --> 03:06:12,237
way we understand strong, not just in

3452
03:06:12,320 --> 03:06:15,597
every way so that cooperation and

3453
03:06:15,680 --> 03:06:19,277
competition can build a better
world for all of humanity.

3454
03:06:19,360 --> 03:06:22,317
>> It's interesting.
I [laughter] I've been

3455
03:06:22,400 --> 03:06:27,357
this is one of those uh truths where
you just speak and it it resonates and I

3456
03:06:27,440 --> 03:06:30,477
didn't even think about it. >> Yeah.
Exactly. So this is what you were

3457
03:06:30,560 --> 03:06:32,687
sitting in during the holiday season

3458
03:06:32,770 --> 03:06:35,277
[laughter] just boiling over. So all

3459
03:06:35,360 --> 03:06:40,237
that said, there's still
to you some good to the H-1B.

3460
03:06:40,320 --> 03:06:41,917
>> Okay. So then you get this other Okay.

3461
03:06:42,000 --> 03:06:43,837
So then there's >> going
come all the way around.

3462
03:06:43,920 --> 03:06:45,917
>> There's another nuance. So there's
another nuance. There's another nuance

3463
03:06:46,000 --> 03:06:48,637
which is mostly in the valley
we don't use H-1Bs anymore.

3464
03:06:48,720 --> 03:06:52,397
>> Mostly we use 01's.
>> So there's a se there's you may there's

3465
03:06:52,480 --> 03:06:56,077
a separate class of visa and and the 01
is like this. It turns out the 01 is the

3466
03:06:56,160 --> 03:06:59,117
super genius visa. >> Mhm.
Uh so the 01 is the basically our

3467
03:06:59,200 --> 03:07:02,157
our founder like when we have like
a when we have somebody from anywhere in

3468
03:07:02,240 --> 03:07:04,397
the world and they've like invented
a breakthrough in new technology and they

3469
03:07:04,480 --> 03:07:07,597
want to come to the US to start
a company they come in through an 01 visa.

3470
03:07:07,680 --> 03:07:11,357
Um and and that actually is like
a it's a fairly high bar. It's a high

3471
03:07:11,440 --> 03:07:14,077
acceptance rate but it's like a pretty
high bar and they they do a lot of work

3472
03:07:14,160 --> 03:07:17,037
and they there's like a you have to put
real work into it really really prove

3473
03:07:17,120 --> 03:07:19,677
your case. Um mostly what's happened

3474
03:07:19,760 --> 03:07:24,317
with the H-1B visa program um is that it
has gone to basically two categories of

3475
03:07:24,400 --> 03:07:27,917
employers. one is the basically a small
set of big tech companies that hire in

3476
03:07:28,000 --> 03:07:31,357
volume which is exactly the companies
that you would think um and then the

3477
03:07:31,440 --> 03:07:34,557
other is it goes to these what they
call kind of the mills um the consulting

3478
03:07:34,640 --> 03:07:37,357
mills right and so there's these set
of companies with names I don't want to

3479
03:07:37,440 --> 03:07:40,717
pick on companies but you know names
like cognizant that you know hire

3480
03:07:40,800 --> 03:07:44,877
basically have their business model uh
is primarily Indian bring in primarily

3481
03:07:44,960 --> 03:07:48,877
Indians um in in large numbers um
and you know they often have you know

3482
03:07:48,960 --> 03:07:52,077
offices next to company owned housing
and they'll have you know organizations

3483
03:07:52,160 --> 03:07:54,317
that are you know they'll have you
know organizations that are literally

3484
03:07:54,400 --> 03:07:57,277
thousands of Indians, you know,
living and working in the US and they do

3485
03:07:57,360 --> 03:08:00,397
basically um call it mid-tier like uh IT

3486
03:08:00,480 --> 03:08:04,717
consulting. So the you know these folks
they're making good good good wages but

3487
03:08:04,800 --> 03:08:06,957
they're making 60 80 or $100,000 a year

3488
03:08:07,040 --> 03:08:09,117
not the you know 300,000 that you'd make

3489
03:08:09,200 --> 03:08:12,077
in the valley. Um and so like in

3490
03:08:12,160 --> 03:08:16,557
practice the startups basic like little
tech as we call it or the startup world

3491
03:08:16,640 --> 03:08:20,397
mainly doesn't use H-1Bs at this point
and and mainly can't because the system

3492
03:08:20,480 --> 03:08:24,077
is kind of rigged in a way that we
really can't. Um, and then and then and

3493
03:08:24,160 --> 03:08:26,557
then again you get to the sort
of underlying morality here, which is it's

3494
03:08:26,640 --> 03:08:30,477
like, well, you know, Amazon like
Amazon's a like I love Amazon, but like

3495
03:08:30,560 --> 03:08:33,357
they're a big powerful company. You know,
they've got, you know, more money

3496
03:08:33,440 --> 03:08:36,637
than God. They've got resources. They've
got a long-term planning horizon. They

3497
03:08:36,720 --> 03:08:40,397
do big, you know, profound things over,
you know, decades at a time. Um, you

3498
03:08:40,480 --> 03:08:43,677
know, they could, you know, or any
of these other companies could launch

3499
03:08:43,760 --> 03:08:47,357
massively effective programs to go
recruit the best and brightest from all

3500
03:08:47,440 --> 03:08:50,557
throughout the the country. And, you know,
you'll notice they don't do that.

3501
03:08:50,640 --> 03:08:55,357
you know, they bring in, you know,
10,000 20,000 H1Bs a year. Um, and so

3502
03:08:55,440 --> 03:08:58,717
you've got a question there. Um,
and then these mills, like there's lots of

3503
03:08:58,800 --> 03:09:01,437
questions around them and whether they
should, you know, whether that's even a

3504
03:09:01,520 --> 03:09:03,997
ethical way, you know, I don't want
to say they're unethical, but there's

3505
03:09:04,080 --> 03:09:08,877
questions around like exactly what what
the trade-offs are there. Um, and so,

3506
03:09:08,960 --> 03:09:11,677
you know, this this Yeah. And this is
like a Pandora's box that really, you

3507
03:09:11,760 --> 03:09:13,357
know, nobody really wanted to be opened.

3508
03:09:13,440 --> 03:09:17,037
um you know to to to play devil's
advocate on all this in terms of like

3509
03:09:17,120 --> 03:09:19,837
national immigration issues you know
none of this is like a top- end issue

3510
03:09:19,920 --> 03:09:23,037
just cuz the numbers are small um right
and so you know I don't think you know

3511
03:09:23,120 --> 03:09:25,597
the administration has said like this is
not like a priority of theirs for right

3512
03:09:25,680 --> 03:09:28,397
now um but I guess what I would say is

3513
03:09:28,480 --> 03:09:32,957
like there is actually a lot
of complexity and nuance here um I have a

3514
03:09:33,040 --> 03:09:35,757
lot of f like I said I have a lot
of friends and colleagues who are you know

3515
03:09:35,840 --> 03:09:40,397
came over on H1Bs or green cards many
are now citizens and you know every

3516
03:09:40,480 --> 03:09:42,797
single one one of them was not every
single one a lot of them were enthusiast

3517
03:09:42,880 --> 03:09:46,317
astic to, you know, defend the honor of
immigrants throughout this whole period.

3518
03:09:46,400 --> 03:09:48,477
And they said to me, it's like, well,
Mark, how can we, you know, how can we,

3519
03:09:48,560 --> 03:09:50,957
how can we more clearly express,
you know, the importance of high school

3520
03:09:51,040 --> 03:09:53,837
immigration to the US. And I was like,
um, I think you can do it by advocating

3521
03:09:53,920 --> 03:09:57,917
for also developing
our native porn talent.

3522
03:09:58,000 --> 03:10:01,197
Like, do you want to inflame the issue
or do you want to diffuse the issue,

3523
03:10:01,280 --> 03:10:04,957
>> right? And I I think I think the answer
is to diffuse the issue. Uh, let me give

3524
03:10:05,040 --> 03:10:08,797
you one more positive scenario,
which and then I'll

3525
03:10:08,880 --> 03:10:12,797
also beat up on the university some more.
Um do you do you know about the

3526
03:10:12,880 --> 03:10:15,917
National Merit Scholarship System?
Have you heard about this?

3527
03:10:16,000 --> 03:10:17,837
>> Um not really. Can you explain?

3528
03:10:17,920 --> 03:10:20,637
>> So there's a system that was created
during the Cold War um called the

3529
03:10:20,720 --> 03:10:25,357
National Merit Scholars. And um it is a
basically um it was created I forget in

3530
03:10:25,440 --> 03:10:29,037
the 1950s or 60s when it was when
people in government actually wanted to

3531
03:10:29,120 --> 03:10:32,397
identify the best and the brightest
>> as heretical an idea as that sounds

3532
03:10:32,480 --> 03:10:35,117
today. Um and so it's basically a

3533
03:10:35,200 --> 03:10:38,397
national talent search for basically IQ.

3534
03:10:38,480 --> 03:10:40,157
um it it goal is to identify basically

3535
03:10:40,240 --> 03:10:45,517
the top 0.5% of the IQ um uh in the
country by the way completely regardless

3536
03:10:45,600 --> 03:10:48,717
of other characteristics. So there's no
race, gender or any other aspect to it.

3537
03:10:48,800 --> 03:10:52,397
It's just going for straight intelligence.
Um it uses the first the

3538
03:10:52,480 --> 03:10:55,357
PAT um which is the preparatory SAT that

3539
03:10:55,440 --> 03:10:59,917
you take um and then the SAT. Uh so
it uses those scores that that is the

3540
03:11:00,000 --> 03:11:01,997
scoring. It's a straight PAT SAT scoring

3541
03:11:02,080 --> 03:11:04,557
system. Um so they use the SAT as a

3542
03:11:04,640 --> 03:11:08,557
proxy for IQ which it is. Um

3543
03:11:08,640 --> 03:11:11,997
uh they run this every year. They
identify they they it's like a they get

3544
03:11:12,080 --> 03:11:15,517
down to like 1% of the population of the
kids of 18-year-olds in any given year

3545
03:11:15,600 --> 03:11:18,797
who scored highest on the PAT and then
they get down to they further qualify

3546
03:11:18,880 --> 03:11:23,117
down to the 0.5% that also replicate
on the SAT. Um and then it's like the

3547
03:11:23,200 --> 03:11:26,797
scholarship amount is like $2,500,
right? So it's like it was a lot of

3548
03:11:26,880 --> 03:11:28,797
money 50 years ago, not as much today.

3549
03:11:28,880 --> 03:11:32,477
But it's a national system being run
literally to find the best and the

3550
03:11:32,560 --> 03:11:34,957
brightest. Mhm. >> How many
of our great and powerful

3551
03:11:35,040 --> 03:11:39,197
universities use this as a scouting
system? Like our universities all have

3552
03:11:39,280 --> 03:11:43,437
sports teams. They all have national
scouting uh they have full-time scouts

3553
03:11:43,520 --> 03:11:45,837
who go out and they go to every high
school and they try to find all the

3554
03:11:45,920 --> 03:11:49,997
great basketball players and bring them
into the NCAA into all these leagues. Um

3555
03:11:50,080 --> 03:11:52,957
how many of our great and powerful
and enlightened universities use the

3556
03:11:53,040 --> 03:11:56,637
National Merit System to go do a talent
uh search for the smartest kids and just

3557
03:11:56,720 --> 03:11:59,437
bring them in? >> Let me guess. Very few.

3558
03:11:59,520 --> 03:12:03,997
>> Zero. >> Zero. As you say it,
that's brilliant. There

3559
03:12:04,080 --> 03:12:07,597
should be that same level
of scouting for talent internally.

3560
03:12:07,680 --> 03:12:09,517
>> Go get the smartest ones.
I give you one

3561
03:12:09,600 --> 03:12:12,957
more kicker on this topic if you're not
if I haven't beaten it to death. Um, you

3562
03:12:13,040 --> 03:12:15,277
know, the SAT has changed.

3563
03:12:15,360 --> 03:12:17,757
>> Um, so the SAT used to be a highly

3564
03:12:17,840 --> 03:12:21,437
accurate proxy for IQ. Um, that caused a

3565
03:12:21,520 --> 03:12:25,077
bunch of problems. People really
don't like the whole idea of IQ. Um,

3566
03:12:25,160 --> 03:12:28,637
[clears throat] and so the SAT has been
actively managed over the last 50 years

3567
03:12:28,720 --> 03:12:32,237
by the College Board that runs it. And it
has been essentially like everything

3568
03:12:32,320 --> 03:12:34,957
else, it's been dumbed down. Um, and so

3569
03:12:35,040 --> 03:12:39,597
the the in in in two ways. Um, number
one, it's been dumbed down where uh an

3570
03:12:39,680 --> 03:12:44,637
800 from 40 years ago does not mean what
an 800 means today. Um, and 800 40 years

3571
03:12:44,720 --> 03:12:48,717
ago, it was almost impossible to get
an 800. Uh, today there's today there's so

3572
03:12:48,800 --> 03:12:52,077
many 800s that you could stock the entire
Ivy League with 800s, right? Um,

3573
03:12:52,160 --> 03:12:56,317
and so so so so it's been deliberately
dumbed down. Um, and then two is they

3574
03:12:56,400 --> 03:12:59,037
have they have tried to pull out a lot
of what's called the g- loing. And so

3575
03:12:59,120 --> 03:13:02,957
they they've tried to detach it from
being an IQ proxy because IQ is such an

3576
03:13:03,040 --> 03:13:06,157
inflammatory concept and and the
consequence of that is and this is sort

3577
03:13:06,240 --> 03:13:09,357
of perverse.
They've made it more coachable,

3578
03:13:09,440 --> 03:13:13,037
right? So the IT the SAT 40 years ago
coaching didn't really work. And more

3579
03:13:13,120 --> 03:13:14,317
recently it has really started to work.

3580
03:13:14,400 --> 03:13:17,357
And one of the things you see is that
the Asian spike, you see this like giant

3581
03:13:17,440 --> 03:13:20,397
leap upward in Asian performance over
the last decade. And I I think looking

3582
03:13:20,480 --> 03:13:23,437
at the data, I think a lot of that is
because it's more coachable now and the

3583
03:13:23,520 --> 03:13:27,757
and the Asians do the most coaching.
Um so there's a bunch of issues with this.

3584
03:13:27,840 --> 03:13:30,557
And so the coaching thing is really
difficult because the coaching thing is

3585
03:13:30,640 --> 03:13:34,077
a subsidy then to the kids whose
parents can afford coaching,

3586
03:13:34,160 --> 03:13:36,397
>> right? And I don't know about you,
but where I grew up, there was no SAT

3587
03:13:36,480 --> 03:13:39,837
coaching. So there's like an issue there.
I didn't even know what the SAT

3588
03:13:39,920 --> 03:13:42,477
was until the day I took it. Much less
that there was coaching, much less that

3589
03:13:42,560 --> 03:13:46,237
it could work. So much less we could
afford it. So So number one, there's

3590
03:13:46,320 --> 03:13:48,717
issues there. But the other issue there
is think about what's happened by the

3591
03:13:48,800 --> 03:13:52,157
dumbing down. 800 no longer captures all

3592
03:13:52,240 --> 03:13:55,197
the smart 800 is too crude of a test.

3593
03:13:55,280 --> 03:13:57,037
It's like the AI benchmarking problem.

3594
03:13:57,120 --> 03:14:00,397
It's it's the same problem we have in AI
benchmarking right now. 800 is too low

3595
03:14:00,480 --> 03:14:04,477
of a threshold. There are
too many kids scoring 800

3596
03:14:04,560 --> 03:14:07,677
because what you want is you want
whatever if it's going to be 100,000

3597
03:14:07,760 --> 03:14:09,997
kids. I don't know what it is, but it's
going to be 50,000 kids a year scoring

3598
03:14:10,080 --> 03:14:14,317
800. You also then want kids to be able
to score 900 and 1,000 and 1100 and 1200

3599
03:14:14,400 --> 03:14:17,517
and you want to ultimately get to >>
you know this you'd like to ident

3600
03:14:17,600 --> 03:14:21,117
ultimately identify the top 100 kids
and make sure that you get them in MIT

3601
03:14:21,200 --> 03:14:24,877
>> and the resolution of the test has
been reduced so that it actually is not

3602
03:14:24,960 --> 03:14:28,397
useful for doing that. And again, it's
I I would say this is like part of the

3603
03:14:28,480 --> 03:14:31,037
generalized corruption that's taken
place throughout this entire system

3604
03:14:31,120 --> 03:14:34,317
where we we we have been heading
in the reverse direction from wanting to

3605
03:14:34,400 --> 03:14:37,357
actually go get the best and brightest
and actually put them in the places um

3606
03:14:37,440 --> 03:14:40,157
where they should be. And then just
the final comment would be the great thing

3607
03:14:40,240 --> 03:14:43,437
about standardized testing and the
national merit system is it's like I

3608
03:14:43,520 --> 03:14:46,637
said, it's completely race blind. It's
gender blind. It's blind on every other

3609
03:14:46,720 --> 03:14:49,997
characteristic. it's only done on test
scores, you know, and you can make an

3610
03:14:50,080 --> 03:14:53,997
argument about whether that's good or bad,
but it is, you know, for sure, um,

3611
03:14:54,080 --> 03:14:57,437
you know, it's the closest thing that we
had to get to merit. Um, it was the

3612
03:14:57,520 --> 03:15:00,157
thing that they did when they thought
they needed merit to win the Cold War.

3613
03:15:00,240 --> 03:15:03,757
And of course, we could we could choose
to do that anytime we want. And, and I

3614
03:15:03,840 --> 03:15:07,277
just say I find it like incredibly
striking, um, and an enormous moral

3615
03:15:07,360 --> 03:15:09,837
indictment of the current system
that there are no universities to do this

3616
03:15:09,920 --> 03:15:11,997
today. >> So,
back to the immigration thing just

3617
03:15:12,080 --> 03:15:14,877
real quick. It's like, okay, we aren't
even trying to go get the smart kids out

3618
03:15:14,960 --> 03:15:17,997
of the center of South and and even if
they think that they can get into these

3619
03:15:18,080 --> 03:15:20,877
places, they get turned down. And the
same thing for the smart Asians and the

3620
03:15:20,960 --> 03:15:23,117
same thing for the smart Jews and the
same thing for the smart black people.

3621
03:15:23,200 --> 03:15:27,917
And like it it just like it's
just like I don't know how

3622
03:15:28,000 --> 03:15:29,277
like I I don't know how that's moral.

3623
03:15:29,360 --> 03:15:31,917
Like I I don't get it at all. As you

3624
03:15:32,000 --> 03:15:34,477
said about the 800, so I took the SAT

3625
03:15:34,560 --> 03:15:36,797
and ACT many times and there I've always

3626
03:15:36,880 --> 03:15:40,077
gotten perfect at math 800. It's just

3627
03:15:40,160 --> 03:15:43,277
and I'm not that I'm not special. Like

3628
03:15:43,360 --> 03:15:47,837
it it it doesn't identify genius. I

3629
03:15:47,920 --> 03:15:50,637
think you want to search for genius and

3630
03:15:50,720 --> 03:15:53,597
you want to create measures that find

3631
03:15:53,680 --> 03:15:55,757
genius of all different kinds. Speaking

3632
03:15:55,840 --> 03:16:00,077
of diversity, and I guess we should

3633
03:16:00,160 --> 03:16:01,997
reiterate and say over and over and

3634
03:16:02,080 --> 03:16:06,237
over, uh, defend immigrants, yes, but

3635
03:16:06,320 --> 03:16:09,597
say we should hire
more and more nativeorn.

3636
03:16:09,680 --> 03:16:12,077
>> Well, you asked me in the beginning
like what what would what's the most

3637
03:16:12,160 --> 03:16:14,637
optimistic forecast, right, that we
could have? And the most optimistic

3638
03:16:14,720 --> 03:16:17,607
forecast would be, my god,
what if we did both?

3639
03:16:17,690 --> 03:16:20,957
[laughter] Like,

3640
03:16:21,040 --> 03:16:25,757
>> so that's the reasonable, the rational,
the smart thing to say here. In fact, we

3641
03:16:25,840 --> 03:16:28,637
don't have to have a war. >> Well,
it would diffuse, it would diffuse

3642
03:16:28,720 --> 03:16:31,277
the entire issue. >> Yeah.
>> If everybody in the center in the south

3643
03:16:31,360 --> 03:16:33,677
of the country and every Jewish family,
Asian family, black family knew they

3644
03:16:33,760 --> 03:16:37,277
were getting a fair shake.
Like, it would diffuse the issue.

3645
03:16:37,360 --> 03:16:38,557
Like, how about diffusing the issue?

3646
03:16:38,640 --> 03:16:41,757
Like, what a crazy radical. Sorry,
I don't mean to really get out over my

3647
03:16:41,840 --> 03:16:43,437
skis here, but

3648
03:16:43,520 --> 03:16:46,237
>> I think your profile on X states it's

3649
03:16:46,320 --> 03:16:49,837
time to build. It feels like 25 2025 is

3650
03:16:49,920 --> 03:16:51,997
a good year to build.

3651
03:16:52,080 --> 03:16:56,637
So uh I wanted to ask your advice

3652
03:16:56,720 --> 03:16:59,117
and maybe

3653
03:16:59,200 --> 03:17:01,117
uh for advice for anybody who's trying

3654
03:17:01,200 --> 03:17:03,677
to build so who's trying to build

3655
03:17:03,760 --> 03:17:06,157
something useful in the world

3656
03:17:06,240 --> 03:17:08,957
maybe launch a startup or maybe just

3657
03:17:09,040 --> 03:17:12,797
launch apps services whatever ship

3658
03:17:12,880 --> 03:17:16,637
software products. So maybe by way of

3659
03:17:16,720 --> 03:17:21,037
advice, how do you
actually get to shipping?

3660
03:17:21,120 --> 03:17:24,157
>> So I mean a big part of the answer I
think is we're in the middle of a legit

3661
03:17:24,240 --> 03:17:26,717
revolution. And I know you've been
talking about this on your show, but

3662
03:17:26,800 --> 03:17:29,437
like AI coding, I mean this is the

3663
03:17:29,520 --> 03:17:33,757
biggest earthquake to hit software
in certainly my life. um maybe since the

3664
03:17:33,840 --> 03:17:37,037
invention of software um and I'm sure
you know we're involved in various of

3665
03:17:37,120 --> 03:17:40,157
these companies but you know these
these tools um you know from a variety of

3666
03:17:40,240 --> 03:17:45,357
companies are um like absolutely
revolutionary and and and they're

3667
03:17:45,440 --> 03:17:48,317
getting better by leaps and bounds right
every day and and you you you know all

3668
03:17:48,400 --> 03:17:51,597
this but like the thing with coding
like there there's like open questions of

3669
03:17:51,680 --> 03:17:54,717
whether AI can get better at like I
don't know understanding philosophy or

3670
03:17:54,800 --> 03:17:57,917
whatever creative writing or whatever
but like for sure we can make it much

3671
03:17:58,000 --> 03:17:59,757
better at coding >> right
[clears throat] because you can

3672
03:17:59,840 --> 03:18:03,197
validate the results of coding um And so,
you know, there's all these methods

3673
03:18:03,280 --> 03:18:05,837
of, you know, synthetic data and
selftraining and reinforcement learning

3674
03:18:05,920 --> 03:18:09,277
that for sure you can do with with coding.
And so, everybody I know who

3675
03:18:09,360 --> 03:18:13,197
works in the field says AI coding is going
to get to be phenomenally good and

3676
03:18:13,280 --> 03:18:16,397
it's it's already great and you you can
I mean, anybody wants to see this just

3677
03:18:16,480 --> 03:18:19,117
go on YouTube and look at AI coding
demos. You know, little little kids

3678
03:18:19,200 --> 03:18:22,477
making apps in 10 minutes working
with an AI coding system. And so, I think

3679
03:18:22,560 --> 03:18:24,717
it's the golden age. I mean, I think
this is an area where it's clearly the

3680
03:18:24,800 --> 03:18:28,237
golden age. The tool set is extraordinary.
You know, in in a day as

3681
03:18:28,320 --> 03:18:31,997
as a coder, for sure, in a day you can
retrain yourself. um uh you know, start

3682
03:18:32,080 --> 03:18:34,877
using these things, get a huge boost
in productivity. As a non-coder, you can

3683
03:18:34,960 --> 03:18:36,877
learn much more quickly
than you could before.

3684
03:18:36,960 --> 03:18:41,197
>> That's that's actually a tricky one
in terms of learning as a non-coder to

3685
03:18:41,280 --> 03:18:42,877
build stuff. It's still I feel like you

3686
03:18:42,960 --> 03:18:45,997
still need to learn how to code. It it

3687
03:18:46,080 --> 03:18:48,317
becomes a superpower. It helps you be

3688
03:18:48,400 --> 03:18:49,997
much more productive. Like you could

3689
03:18:50,080 --> 03:18:53,037
legitimately be a oneperson

3690
03:18:53,120 --> 03:18:55,837
uh company and get quite far.

3691
03:18:55,920 --> 03:18:59,357
>> I agree with that.
Up to a point. So the

3692
03:18:59,440 --> 03:19:02,877
um I think for sure for quite a long
time the people who are good at coding

3693
03:19:02,960 --> 03:19:05,757
are going to be the best at actually
having AIs code things um because

3694
03:19:05,840 --> 03:19:08,077
they're going to understand what I mean
very basic they're going to understand

3695
03:19:08,160 --> 03:19:10,877
what's happening right and they're going
to be be able to evaluate the work and

3696
03:19:10,960 --> 03:19:14,237
they're going to be able to you know
literally like manage AIS better um like

3697
03:19:14,320 --> 03:19:15,997
even if they're not literally
handwriting the code they're just going

3698
03:19:16,080 --> 03:19:19,037
to have a much better sense of what's
going on so I definitely think like 100%

3699
03:19:19,120 --> 03:19:21,917
my nine-year-old is like doing all kinds
of coding classes and he'll keep doing

3700
03:19:22,000 --> 03:19:24,717
that for certainly through 18 we'll see

3701
03:19:24,800 --> 03:19:29,837
after that um and so like for sure
that's the case. Um but but look having

3702
03:19:29,920 --> 03:19:34,557
said that one of the things you can do
with an AI is say teach me how to code

3703
03:19:34,640 --> 03:19:39,437
right. Um, and so and you know there's
there's a whole bunch of um you know I

3704
03:19:39,520 --> 03:19:41,597
I'll name names you know Khan Academy
like there's a whole bunch of a whole

3705
03:19:41,680 --> 03:19:44,237
bunch of work that they're doing at Khan
Academy for free and then you know we

3706
03:19:44,320 --> 03:19:47,837
have this company Replet uh which is was
originally specifically built for kids

3707
03:19:47,920 --> 03:19:51,437
for coding um that is has AI built
in that's just absolutely extraordinary

3708
03:19:51,520 --> 03:19:54,797
now. Um and then you know there's
a variety of other of other systems like

3709
03:19:54,880 --> 03:19:58,557
this um and uh yeah that I mean the AI
is going to be able to teach you to

3710
03:19:58,640 --> 03:20:02,557
code. The AI by the way is as you know
spectacularly good at explaining code.

3711
03:20:02,640 --> 03:20:05,517
>> Mhm. >> Right. Um,
and so you know the tools

3712
03:20:05,600 --> 03:20:09,197
have these features now where you can
talk to the codebase and so you can like

3713
03:20:09,280 --> 03:20:13,037
literally like ask the codebase
questions about itself. Um, and you can

3714
03:20:13,120 --> 03:20:16,397
also just do the simple form which is you
can copy and paste code into chatgpt

3715
03:20:16,480 --> 03:20:19,837
and just ask it to explain it what's
going on, rewrite it, improve it, make

3716
03:20:19,920 --> 03:20:23,357
recommendations and so there there's
yeah there's dozens of ways to to to do

3717
03:20:23,440 --> 03:20:26,717
this. By the way, you can also I mean
even more broadly than code like you

3718
03:20:26,800 --> 03:20:30,157
okay you want to make a video game okay
now you can do AI art generation sound

3719
03:20:30,240 --> 03:20:34,797
generation dialogue generation voice
generation right and so all of a sudden

3720
03:20:34,880 --> 03:20:39,677
like you don't need designers you know
you don't need um you know voice actors

3721
03:20:39,760 --> 03:20:42,877
you know so yeah so there's just like
unlimited and and then you know big is

3722
03:20:42,960 --> 03:20:45,437
you know a big part of coding
is so-called glue you know it's it's

3723
03:20:45,520 --> 03:20:49,037
interfacing into other systems so it's
interfacing into you know stripe to take

3724
03:20:49,120 --> 03:20:53,677
payments or something like that and you
know AI's fantastic at writing glue

3725
03:20:53,760 --> 03:20:56,557
Um, so you know, really, really good at
making sure that you can plug everything

3726
03:20:56,640 --> 03:21:00,557
together, really good at helping you
figure out how to deploy. Um, you know,

3727
03:21:00,640 --> 03:21:04,797
it'll even write a business plan for you.
Um, so it it's just this it's it's

3728
03:21:04,880 --> 03:21:07,197
like everything happening with AI right
now. It's just it's like this latent

3729
03:21:07,280 --> 03:21:10,717
superpower and there's this incredible
spectrum of people who have really

3730
03:21:10,800 --> 03:21:13,677
figured out massive performance
increases, productivity increases with

3731
03:21:13,760 --> 03:21:16,877
it already. there's other people who
aren't even aware it's happening and

3732
03:21:16,960 --> 03:21:21,597
there's some gearing to whether you're
a coder or not, but I think there are lots

3733
03:21:21,680 --> 03:21:24,077
of non-coders that are off to the
races and I think there are lots of

3734
03:21:24,160 --> 03:21:28,237
professional coders who are still like,
you know, the blacksmiths were not

3735
03:21:28,320 --> 03:21:30,717
necessarily in favor of, you know, the

3736
03:21:30,800 --> 03:21:35,437
car business. Um, so, uh, there's the old
William Gibson quote, the future is

3737
03:21:35,520 --> 03:21:39,197
here, it's just not evenly distributed
yet. And this is maybe the most potent

3738
03:21:39,280 --> 03:21:41,757
version of that that I've ever seen.

3739
03:21:41,840 --> 03:21:43,597
Yeah, there's uh you know the old meme

3740
03:21:43,680 --> 03:21:46,957
with the uh with the bell curve that the

3741
03:21:47,040 --> 03:21:49,917
the people on both extremes say AI

3742
03:21:50,000 --> 03:21:54,397
coding is the future. Um it's very
common with the programmers to say you

3743
03:21:54,480 --> 03:21:57,997
know if you're any good of a programmer
you're not going to be using it. That's

3744
03:21:58,080 --> 03:22:02,717
just not true. Now I consider myself
reasonably good programmer and I my

3745
03:22:02,800 --> 03:22:06,957
productivity has been just skyrocketed
and the joy of programming skyro

3746
03:22:07,040 --> 03:22:09,517
rocketed is every aspect of programming

3747
03:22:09,600 --> 03:22:14,317
is more efficient uh more
productive more fun all that

3748
03:22:14,400 --> 03:22:18,237
kind of stuff. I would also say code
is you know code has code has of anything

3749
03:22:18,320 --> 03:22:22,557
in like industrial society code has has
the highest elasticity which is to say

3750
03:22:22,640 --> 03:22:25,917
the easier it is to make it the more
get get the more of it gets made like I

3751
03:22:26,000 --> 03:22:29,597
think effectively there's unlimited
demand for code like in other words like

3752
03:22:29,680 --> 03:22:33,277
there's always some other idea for a thing
that you can do a feature that you

3753
03:22:33,360 --> 03:22:38,957
can add or a thing that you can optimize
um and so and so like overwhelmingly you

3754
03:22:39,040 --> 03:22:41,357
know the amount of code that exists
in the world is a fraction of even the

3755
03:22:41,440 --> 03:22:45,037
ideas we have today and then we come up
with new ideas all the time um and So I

3756
03:22:45,120 --> 03:22:49,037
I think that like you know
I was I was in the late ' 80s

3757
03:22:49,120 --> 03:22:51,917
early 90s when sort of automated coding
systems started to come out expert

3758
03:22:52,000 --> 03:22:54,797
systems a big deal in those days and
there were all these there was a famous

3759
03:22:54,880 --> 03:22:57,597
book called the decline and fall
of the American programmer you know that

3760
03:22:57,680 --> 03:22:59,837
predicted that these new coding systems
were going to mean we wouldn't have

3761
03:22:59,920 --> 03:23:02,397
programmers in the future and of course
the number of programming jobs exploded

3762
03:23:02,480 --> 03:23:06,317
by like a factor of 100 like my guess
will be we'll have more my guess is

3763
03:23:06,400 --> 03:23:09,437
we'll have more coding jobs probably by
like an order of magnitude 10 years from

3764
03:23:09,520 --> 03:23:13,197
now >> that will be different they'll
be different jobs they'll they'll involve

3765
03:23:13,280 --> 03:23:17,117
orchestrating AI Um but um
we there will be we will be

3766
03:23:17,200 --> 03:23:20,477
creating so much more software that that
the whole industry will just explode in

3767
03:23:20,560 --> 03:23:23,997
size. >> Are you seeing
the size of companies

3768
03:23:24,080 --> 03:23:28,397
decrease in terms of startups?
What's the landscapes of little tech?

3769
03:23:28,480 --> 03:23:32,477
>> All we're seeing right now
is the AI hiring boom of all time.

3770
03:23:32,560 --> 03:23:35,517
>> Oh for the big tech >> people
and and little tech. Everybody's

3771
03:23:35,600 --> 03:23:39,757
trying to hire as many engineers as they
can to build AI systems. It's just it's

3772
03:23:39,840 --> 03:23:43,677
100%. Uh I mean there there's a handful
of company you know there's a little bit

3773
03:23:43,760 --> 03:23:46,477
there's there's customer service you
know there we have some companies and

3774
03:23:46,560 --> 03:23:50,797
others I think it's CLA that's
publicizing a lot of this um in Europe

3775
03:23:50,880 --> 03:23:55,037
um uh where um you know you know there
are jobs that can be optimized um and

3776
03:23:55,120 --> 03:23:59,757
jobs that can be automated but um like
for engineering jobs like it's just an

3777
03:23:59,840 --> 03:24:03,597
explosion of hiring um at least
so far there's no trace of

3778
03:24:03,680 --> 03:24:07,357
any sort of diminishing effect um now
having said that I am looking forward to

3779
03:24:07,440 --> 03:24:11,597
the day I I am waiting for the first
company to walk and saying yes um like

3780
03:24:11,680 --> 03:24:14,877
the more radical form of it. So,
so basically the companies that we see are

3781
03:24:14,960 --> 03:24:19,277
basically one of two kinds.
We we see the companies that are basically

3782
03:24:19,360 --> 03:24:22,957
sometimes use weak form strong form.
So the the weak form companies I sometimes

3783
03:24:23,040 --> 03:24:27,037
use the term it's the called the sixth
bullet point. U AI is the sixth bullet

3784
03:24:27,120 --> 03:24:28,957
point of whatever they're doing.

3785
03:24:29,040 --> 03:24:30,637
>> Sure. >> Right.
In this on the slide, right? So

3786
03:24:30,720 --> 03:24:33,117
they've got the you know whatever dot
dot dot dot and then AI is the sixth

3787
03:24:33,200 --> 03:24:35,037
thing. And the reason AI is the sixth
thing is because they had already

3788
03:24:35,120 --> 03:24:37,837
previously written the slide before the
AI revolution started. And so they just

3789
03:24:37,920 --> 03:24:40,957
added the six bullet point in the slide,
>> which is how you're getting all these

3790
03:24:41,040 --> 03:24:44,077
products that have like the AI button up
in the corner, right? The little sparkly

3791
03:24:44,160 --> 03:24:46,557
button. >> Y, >> right? Um,
and all of a sudden, Gmail is

3792
03:24:46,640 --> 03:24:49,757
offering to summarize your email,
which I'm like, I don't need that. Like, I

3793
03:24:49,840 --> 03:24:53,677
need I need you to answer my email,
not summarize it. Like, what the hell?

3794
03:24:53,760 --> 03:24:55,357
>> Okay, so we see those and that's fine.

3795
03:24:55,440 --> 03:24:59,357
That's like I don't know, putting sugar
on the cake or something. Um, but then

3796
03:24:59,440 --> 03:25:02,637
we see the strong form, which is the
companies that are building from scratch

3797
03:25:02,720 --> 03:25:05,357
for AI, right? Right. And they're
they're building it. I actually just met

3798
03:25:05,440 --> 03:25:09,037
with a company that is building literally
an AI email system as an example. So just

3799
03:25:09,120 --> 03:25:12,557
>> Oh, nice. I I can't wait. >> Yeah.
They're going to completely Right.

3800
03:25:12,640 --> 03:25:15,837
So the very obvious idea, very smart team.
Um you know, it's going to be

3801
03:25:15,920 --> 03:25:19,597
great, you know, and and then you know,
notion just uh you know, another not one

3802
03:25:19,680 --> 03:25:22,477
of our companies, but just came out with
a product. So So now companies are going

3803
03:25:22,560 --> 03:25:24,477
to basically come through, sweep
through, and they're going to do

3804
03:25:24,560 --> 03:25:28,637
basically AI first versions of basically
everything. And those are like companies

3805
03:25:28,720 --> 03:25:31,757
built, you know, AI is the first bullet
point. It's the strong form of the

3806
03:25:31,840 --> 03:25:33,997
argument. >> Yeah.
Cursor is an example of that. They

3807
03:25:34,080 --> 03:25:37,997
basically said, "Okay, we're going to re
rebuild the thing with AI as the first

3808
03:25:38,080 --> 03:25:39,837
citizen. >> What if we
knew from scratch that we

3809
03:25:39,920 --> 03:25:42,637
could build on this?" And and and again,
this is like this is part of the full

3810
03:25:42,720 --> 03:25:45,197
employment act for startups and VCs is

3811
03:25:45,280 --> 03:25:49,837
it just like if if a if a technology
transformation is sufficiently powerful,

3812
03:25:49,920 --> 03:25:52,477
then you actually need to start
the product development process over from

3813
03:25:52,560 --> 03:25:55,197
scratch because you need to
reconceptualize the product and and then

3814
03:25:55,280 --> 03:25:58,557
usually what that means is you need
a new company because most incumbents just

3815
03:25:58,640 --> 03:26:02,157
just won't do that. Um, and so yeah,
so that that's underway across many

3816
03:26:02,240 --> 03:26:06,077
categories. Um, what I'm waiting for is
the company where it's like, no, our org

3817
03:26:06,160 --> 03:26:09,917
chart is redesigned as a result of AI,
right? So I'm looking I'm waiting for

3818
03:26:10,000 --> 03:26:13,117
the company where it's like, no,
we're going to have like, you know,

3819
03:26:13,200 --> 03:26:16,317
>> and and the cliche, here's a thought
experiment, right? The cliche would be

3820
03:26:16,400 --> 03:26:18,637
we're going to have like the human
executive team and then we're going to

3821
03:26:18,720 --> 03:26:21,037
have the AIs be the workers, right?
So we'll have a VP of engineering

3822
03:26:21,120 --> 03:26:23,677
supervising 100 instances of of coding

3823
03:26:23,760 --> 03:26:28,397
of coding agents, right? >> Okay.
Maybe, right? by the way or maybe

3824
03:26:28,480 --> 03:26:31,517
um maybe the VP
of engineering should be the AI

3825
03:26:31,600 --> 03:26:35,437
>> maybe supervising human coders who are
supervising AIS right because one of the

3826
03:26:35,520 --> 03:26:38,477
things that AI should be
pretty good at is managing

3827
03:26:38,560 --> 03:26:40,157
>> because it's like
not you know it's like

3828
03:26:40,240 --> 03:26:43,517
a process driven it's the kind of thing
that AI is actually pretty good at right

3829
03:26:43,600 --> 03:26:48,797
performance evaluation coaching um and so
should it be an AI executive team um

3830
03:26:48,880 --> 03:26:53,357
and then you know and then of course
the ultimate question which is AI CEO

3831
03:26:53,440 --> 03:26:56,397
right um and then you know and then
there's and then maybe the most

3832
03:26:56,480 --> 03:26:59,837
futuristic version of it would be an
actual AI agent that actually goes fully

3833
03:26:59,920 --> 03:27:03,277
autonomous. Yeah. What if you really set
one of these things loose and let it let

3834
03:27:03,360 --> 03:27:07,517
it basically build itself a business? Um
and and so I will say like we're not yet

3835
03:27:07,600 --> 03:27:11,517
seeing those and I think there's
a little bit of the systems aren't quite

3836
03:27:11,600 --> 03:27:15,517
ready for that yet. Um, and then I think
it's a little bit of you really do need

3837
03:27:15,600 --> 03:27:19,357
at that point like a founder who's
really willing to break all the rules

3838
03:27:19,440 --> 03:27:22,637
um, and really willing to take the swing
and and and those people exist and so

3839
03:27:22,720 --> 03:27:25,837
I'm sure we'll see that.
>> And some of it is as as you know with

3840
03:27:25,920 --> 03:27:30,237
all the startups this is the execution
the the idea that you have a AI first

3841
03:27:30,320 --> 03:27:32,637
email client. This seems like an obvious

3842
03:27:32,720 --> 03:27:35,677
idea but actually creating one executing

3843
03:27:35,760 --> 03:27:40,077
and then taking on Gmail is really
is really difficult. I mean, Gmail, it's

3844
03:27:40,160 --> 03:27:45,437
it's it's fascinating to see Google
can't do it because because why? Because

3845
03:27:45,520 --> 03:27:49,197
of momentum because it's hard
to re-engineer the entirety of the system.

3846
03:27:49,280 --> 03:27:53,597
Feels like Google's perfectly positioned
to to do it. Same with like you have

3847
03:27:53,680 --> 03:27:57,357
Perplexity, uh, which I love.
Like Google could

3848
03:27:57,440 --> 03:27:59,517
technically take on Perplexity and do it

3849
03:27:59,600 --> 03:28:02,317
much better, but they haven't not yet.

3850
03:28:02,400 --> 03:28:07,197
So, it's fascinating why that is for
large companies. I mean that that is an

3851
03:28:07,280 --> 03:28:09,997
advantage for little tech.
They can be agile.

3852
03:28:10,080 --> 03:28:11,837
>> Yeah, that's right.
>> They can move fast.

3853
03:28:11,920 --> 03:28:14,397
>> Yeah. Little companies can break
glass in a way big companies can't.

3854
03:28:14,480 --> 03:28:16,237
>> Right. >> This is sort
of the big breakthrough

3855
03:28:16,320 --> 03:28:18,957
that Clay Christensen had in the
innovators dilemma, which is sometimes

3856
03:28:19,040 --> 03:28:22,077
when big companies don't do things,
it's because they're screwing up. And that

3857
03:28:22,160 --> 03:28:24,797
certainly happens. >> But a lot
of times they don't do things

3858
03:28:24,880 --> 03:28:26,157
because it would break too much glass.

3859
03:28:26,240 --> 03:28:29,277
It would specifically it would it would
it would interfere with their existing

3860
03:28:29,360 --> 03:28:32,237
customers um and their existing
businesses and they just simply won't do

3861
03:28:32,320 --> 03:28:35,277
that. And by the way,
responsibly they shouldn't do that.

3862
03:28:35,360 --> 03:28:38,957
Um, right. Um, and so they just get this

3863
03:28:39,040 --> 03:28:42,317
Clay Christian's big thing is they
they often don't adapt because they are

3864
03:28:42,400 --> 03:28:46,077
wellrun, not because they're poorly run,
but they're optimizing machines. They're

3865
03:28:46,160 --> 03:28:49,597
they're they're optimizing against the
existing business. And and and and as as

3866
03:28:49,680 --> 03:28:52,637
you kind of just said, this is like
a permanent state of affairs for large

3867
03:28:52,720 --> 03:28:55,997
organizations. Like every once
in a while, one breaks the pattern and

3868
03:28:56,080 --> 03:28:58,957
actually does it, but for the most part,
like this is a very predictable form of

3869
03:28:59,040 --> 03:29:02,877
human behavior. And this fundamentally
is why startups exist.

3870
03:29:02,960 --> 03:29:05,277
It feels like 2025 is when the race for

3871
03:29:05,360 --> 03:29:07,757
dominance in AI will uh see some

3872
03:29:07,840 --> 03:29:10,557
winners. Like it's a big year. So, who

3873
03:29:10,640 --> 03:29:15,277
do you think wins the race? Open AI,
Meta, Google, XAI. Who do you think wins

3874
03:29:15,360 --> 03:29:18,237
the AI race? >> I would say I'm I'm not
going to predict. I'm going to say there's

3875
03:29:18,320 --> 03:29:21,357
questions all over the place. Um,
and then we have we have this category

3876
03:29:21,440 --> 03:29:23,757
question we call the trillion dollar
question, which is like literally

3877
03:29:23,840 --> 03:29:27,117
depending on how it's answered, people
make or lose a trillion dollars. And I

3878
03:29:27,200 --> 03:29:30,557
think there's like I don't know five
or six trillion dollar questions right now

3879
03:29:30,640 --> 03:29:33,117
that are hanging out there which
is an unusually large number.

3880
03:29:33,200 --> 03:29:34,957
>> Yeah. >> And I just you
know I'll just hit a few

3881
03:29:35,040 --> 03:29:37,917
of them and we can talk about them.
So one is big models versus small models.

3882
03:29:38,000 --> 03:29:42,397
Um another is open models versus closed
models. Another is whether you can use

3883
03:29:42,480 --> 03:29:46,637
synthetic data or not. Another is chain
of thought. How far can you push that

3884
03:29:46,720 --> 03:29:50,637
and reinforcement learning? And then
another one is political trillion dollar

3885
03:29:50,720 --> 03:29:54,397
questions. um you know policy questions
which you know the US and the EU have

3886
03:29:54,480 --> 03:29:58,397
both been flunking [snorts] dramatically
and the US hopefully is about to really

3887
03:29:58,480 --> 03:30:02,557
succeed at um yeah and then there's
probably another you know half dozen big

3888
03:30:02,640 --> 03:30:06,797
important questions after that and so
these are all just like say this is an

3889
03:30:06,880 --> 03:30:10,717
industry that's in flux in a way that I
even more dramatic I think than the ones

3890
03:30:10,800 --> 03:30:14,477
I've seen before um and look the most
example most obvious example of the flux

3891
03:30:14,560 --> 03:30:17,277
is sitting here three sitting here
in the summer you know sitting here less

3892
03:30:17,360 --> 03:30:20,717
than three years ago sitting here
in December of 22 we would have said that

3893
03:30:20,800 --> 03:30:23,037
OpenAI is just running
away with everything.

3894
03:30:23,120 --> 03:30:26,477
>> Um, and sitting here today, it's like,
you know, there's at least six, you

3895
03:30:26,560 --> 03:30:31,437
know, worldass god model companies
and teams that are, by the way, generating

3896
03:30:31,520 --> 03:30:34,317
remarkably similar results. That's
actually been one of the most shocking

3897
03:30:34,400 --> 03:30:37,277
things to me is like it turns out
that once you know that it's possible to

3898
03:30:37,360 --> 03:30:41,677
build one incredibly smart touring test
passing large language model, which was

3899
03:30:41,760 --> 03:30:45,357
a complete shock and surprise uh
to the world, um, it turns out within, you

3900
03:30:45,440 --> 03:30:49,197
know, a year you can have five more.
Um there's also a money component thing to

3901
03:30:49,280 --> 03:30:53,037
it which is um to get the money to scale
one of these things into the billions of

3902
03:30:53,120 --> 03:30:55,757
dollars. There's basically right now
only two sources of money that will do

3903
03:30:55,840 --> 03:30:59,437
that for you. One is um the hyperscalers
giving you the money which you turn

3904
03:30:59,520 --> 03:31:03,357
around and round trip back to them.
Um or you know foreign sovereigns you know

3905
03:31:03,440 --> 03:31:06,397
other you know country sovereign
sovereign wealth funds which can be you

3906
03:31:06,480 --> 03:31:11,437
know difficult in some cases to for
companies to access. Um so there's a

3907
03:31:11,520 --> 03:31:13,597
there's another there's maybe another
trillion dollar question is the

3908
03:31:13,680 --> 03:31:17,357
financing question. Here's one. Uh so
Sam Alman has been public about the fact

3909
03:31:17,440 --> 03:31:21,197
that he wants to transition OpenAI from
being a nonprofit to being a for-profit.

3910
03:31:21,280 --> 03:31:25,677
>> Um the way that that is legally done
is that um and there is a way to do it.

3911
03:31:25,760 --> 03:31:29,597
There is a way in US law to do it.
Um the IRS and and other legal entities uh

3912
03:31:29,680 --> 03:31:32,717
government entities scrutinize this
very carefully because the US takes

3913
03:31:32,800 --> 03:31:37,117
foundation nonprofit law very seriously
because of the tax exemption. Um, and so

3914
03:31:37,200 --> 03:31:40,397
the way that historically the way that
you do it is you start a for-profit and

3915
03:31:40,480 --> 03:31:43,597
then you you raise money with the
for-profit to buy the assets of the

3916
03:31:43,680 --> 03:31:47,277
nonprofit at fair market value. Um, and

3917
03:31:47,360 --> 03:31:51,037
you know, the last financing round
at OpenAI was, you know, $150 some billion

3918
03:31:51,120 --> 03:31:54,157
dollars. And so logically the if if the

3919
03:31:54,240 --> 03:31:58,157
flip is going to happen, the for-profit
has to go raise $150 billion out of the

3920
03:31:58,240 --> 03:32:00,817
chute to buy the assets. You know,

3921
03:32:00,900 --> 03:32:05,517
[laughter] raising 150 billion is a
challenge. Um, so you know, is that even

3922
03:32:05,600 --> 03:32:08,797
possible? If that is possible,
then OpenAI maybe is off to the races as a

3923
03:32:08,880 --> 03:32:12,157
for-profit company. If not, you know,
you know, I don't know. And then, you

3924
03:32:12,240 --> 03:32:15,437
know, obviously the Elon lawsuit. So,
so just because they're the market leader

3925
03:32:15,520 --> 03:32:18,877
today, you know, there's big important
questions there. You know, Microsoft has

3926
03:32:18,960 --> 03:32:22,477
this kind of lovehate relationship with
them. Where does that go? Apple's, you

3927
03:32:22,560 --> 03:32:25,437
know, lagging badly behind, but, you know,
they're very good at catching up.

3928
03:32:25,520 --> 03:32:28,637
Amazon, you know, is primarily
hyperscaler, but they now have their own

3929
03:32:28,720 --> 03:32:31,917
models. And then there's the other
questions like you laid out brilliantly

3930
03:32:32,000 --> 03:32:36,637
briefly and brilliantly open versus
closed big versus little models

3931
03:32:36,720 --> 03:32:38,397
synthetic data that's a huge huge

3932
03:32:38,480 --> 03:32:41,597
question and then test compute with uh

3933
03:32:41,680 --> 03:32:45,117
chain of thought the role of that fasc

3934
03:32:45,200 --> 03:32:48,637
and these are I think it's fair to say
trillion dollar questions. Yeah, these

3935
03:32:48,720 --> 03:32:51,117
are big like look, you know, it's it's
like okay, here's a trillion dollar

3936
03:32:51,200 --> 03:32:53,677
question which is kind of embedded
in that which is just hallucinations,

3937
03:32:53,760 --> 03:32:57,917
right? Like so if you are trying to use
these tools creatively, you're thrilled

3938
03:32:58,000 --> 03:33:01,277
because they can draw new images and they
can make new music and they can do

3939
03:33:01,360 --> 03:33:03,197
all this incredible stuff, right?

3940
03:33:03,280 --> 03:33:06,317
They're creative. The flip side of that
is if you need them to be correct, they

3941
03:33:06,400 --> 03:33:09,677
they can't be creative. And that's,
you know, the term hallucination.

3942
03:33:09,760 --> 03:33:14,317
>> And these things do hallucinate. And
um you know, there have been, you know,

3943
03:33:14,400 --> 03:33:17,277
court cases already where lawyers have
submitted legal briefs that contain

3944
03:33:17,360 --> 03:33:20,877
madeup court citations, case citations
that the judge is like, "Wait a minute,

3945
03:33:20,960 --> 03:33:23,037
this doesn't exist." And the very
next question is, "Did you write this

3946
03:33:23,120 --> 03:33:26,797
yourself?" And the lawyer
goes, "Uh, [laughter]

3947
03:33:26,880 --> 03:33:28,957
>> I mean, that's why
with Elon with Grock,

3948
03:33:29,040 --> 03:33:33,837
uh, yes, looking for truth." I mean
that's a open technical question. How

3949
03:33:33,920 --> 03:33:35,837
close can you get to truth with LLMs?

3950
03:33:35,920 --> 03:33:37,677
>> Yeah, that's right. And and I I my my

3951
03:33:37,760 --> 03:33:43,277
sense u this is very contentious topic
at the industry. My sense is if to the

3952
03:33:43,360 --> 03:33:46,157
extent that there is a domain in which
there is a definitive and checkable and

3953
03:33:46,240 --> 03:33:49,917
provable answer and you might say math
satisfies that, coding satisfies that

3954
03:33:50,000 --> 03:33:53,197
and maybe some other fields then you
should be able to generate synthetic

3955
03:33:53,280 --> 03:33:55,917
data. You should be able to do chain of
thought reasoning. You should be able to

3956
03:33:56,000 --> 03:33:58,877
do reinforcement learning and you should
be able to ultimately you know eliminate

3957
03:33:58,960 --> 03:34:02,957
hallucinations.
um for but by the way that's a trillion

3958
03:34:03,040 --> 03:34:05,677
dollar question right there as to
whether that's true. Um but then but

3959
03:34:05,760 --> 03:34:08,157
then there's question of like okay
is that going to work in the more general

3960
03:34:08,240 --> 03:34:11,357
domain? Like so for example one
possibility is these things are going to

3961
03:34:11,440 --> 03:34:15,597
get be truly superhuman at like math
and coding but at like discussing

3962
03:34:15,680 --> 03:34:18,637
philosophy they're going to just they're
basically as smart as they're ever going

3963
03:34:18,720 --> 03:34:22,397
to be. Um and they're going to be kind
of you know say midwit grad student

3964
03:34:22,480 --> 03:34:25,597
level. Um and and the theory there would
just be they're already out of training

3965
03:34:25,680 --> 03:34:28,557
data. Like they they they they literally
if you know you talk to these people

3966
03:34:28,640 --> 03:34:31,917
like lit literally the big models
the big models are like within a factor 2x

3967
03:34:32,000 --> 03:34:34,637
of consuming all the human generated
training data to the point that some of

3968
03:34:34,720 --> 03:34:37,597
these big companies are literally hiring
people like doctors and lawyers to sit

3969
03:34:37,680 --> 03:34:39,517
and write new training data by hand.

3970
03:34:39,600 --> 03:34:41,037
>> And so does this mean
that like you have

3971
03:34:41,120 --> 03:34:43,517
to if you want your model to be better
at philosophy you have to go hire like a

3972
03:34:43,600 --> 03:34:46,237
thousand philosophers and have them
write new content and is anybody going

3973
03:34:46,320 --> 03:34:49,277
to do that? >> And so you
know maybe maybe these things

3974
03:34:49,360 --> 03:34:51,597
are topping out in certain ways and
they're going to leap way ahead in other

3975
03:34:51,680 --> 03:34:56,237
ways. And so anyway, so we just don't,
you know, I guess this this is I tell

3976
03:34:56,320 --> 03:34:59,837
you maybe my main conclusion is I
I don't any of these anybody telling

3977
03:34:59,920 --> 03:35:03,357
anybody telling you these big sweeping
conclusions, you know, this whole super,

3978
03:35:03,440 --> 03:35:06,477
you know, all of these abstract
generalized super intelligence AGI stuff

3979
03:35:06,560 --> 03:35:09,917
like it, you know, maybe it's the engineer
in me, but like no, like that's

3980
03:35:10,000 --> 03:35:14,157
not the that's not the that's too
abstract. Like it it's got to actually

3981
03:35:14,240 --> 03:35:18,717
work. Um and then by the way, it has
to actually have to be able to pay for it.

3982
03:35:18,800 --> 03:35:21,437
Um, [laughter] I mean this is a problem
right now with, you know, the big

3983
03:35:21,520 --> 03:35:23,837
models. The big models that are like
really good at coding a math, they're

3984
03:35:23,920 --> 03:35:28,477
like actually very expensive to run.
You know, they're quite slow. Um, another

3985
03:35:28,560 --> 03:35:30,317
trillion dollar question, future chips.

3986
03:35:30,400 --> 03:35:33,837
Um, which I know you've talked a lot
about. Um, another trillion dollar

3987
03:35:33,920 --> 03:35:37,437
question, um, yeah, I mean, all
the global issues. Oh, another trillion

3988
03:35:37,520 --> 03:35:40,157
dollar question, censorship,

3989
03:35:40,240 --> 03:35:42,557
right? Like and and and and um and all

3990
03:35:42,640 --> 03:35:47,597
the as they say, all the uh human
feedback uh training process.

3991
03:35:47,680 --> 03:35:49,917
Exactly. What are you training these
things to do? What are they allowed to

3992
03:35:50,000 --> 03:35:53,117
talk about? How long do
they give you these inc how

3993
03:35:53,200 --> 03:35:57,357
how often do they give you these
incredibly preachy moral lectures? How

3994
03:35:57,440 --> 03:36:00,077
here's a here's a here's a good here's
a trillion dollar question. How many other

3995
03:36:00,160 --> 03:36:05,137
countries want their country to run its
education system, healthare system, news

3996
03:36:05,220 --> 03:36:07,437
[clears throat] system, political
system on the basis of an AI that's been

3997
03:36:07,520 --> 03:36:11,917
trained according to the most
extreme leftwing California politics?

3998
03:36:12,000 --> 03:36:15,117
Um, right? Because that's kind of what
they have on offer right now. And I

3999
03:36:15,200 --> 03:36:19,757
think the answer to that is not very many.
So there's like massive open

4000
03:36:19,840 --> 03:36:23,517
questions there about like what you know
and by the way like what morality are

4001
03:36:23,600 --> 03:36:25,677
these things going to get trained on as a

4002
03:36:25,760 --> 03:36:28,957
>> and that one we're cracking wide open

4003
03:36:29,040 --> 03:36:30,877
with uh what's been happening over the

4004
03:36:30,960 --> 03:36:33,357
past few months censorship on every

4005
03:36:33,440 --> 03:36:36,397
level of these companies and just the

4006
03:36:36,480 --> 03:36:38,797
very idea what truth means and what it

4007
03:36:38,880 --> 03:36:43,677
means to be expand the Overton window
of LLMs or the Overton window of human

4008
03:36:43,760 --> 03:36:46,157
discourse. Yeah. >> So,
what what I experienced, you know,

4009
03:36:46,240 --> 03:36:48,717
going back to how we started, what I
experienced was, all right, social media

4010
03:36:48,800 --> 03:36:52,397
censorship regime from hell, debanking,

4011
03:36:52,480 --> 03:36:56,557
>> right, at like a large scale. Um,
and then the war on the crypto industry,

4012
03:36:56,640 --> 03:37:00,077
trying to kill it, and then basically
declared intent to do the same thing to

4013
03:37:00,160 --> 03:37:04,397
AI. Um, and to put AI under the same
kind of censorship and control regime as

4014
03:37:04,480 --> 03:37:08,877
as as social media and the banks. And I
and I think this election tipped in in

4015
03:37:08,960 --> 03:37:12,557
America. I think this election tipped
us from a timeline in which things were

4016
03:37:12,640 --> 03:37:15,357
going to get really bad on that front
uh to a timeline in which I think things

4017
03:37:15,440 --> 03:37:18,797
are going to be quite good. But look,
those same questions also apply outside

4018
03:37:18,880 --> 03:37:22,637
the US. And you know, the EU is doing
their thing. They're being extremely

4019
03:37:22,720 --> 03:37:26,317
draconian and they're trying to lock
in a political censorship regime on AI

4020
03:37:26,400 --> 03:37:29,037
right now to that's so harsh that even
American AI companies are not even

4021
03:37:29,120 --> 03:37:32,797
willing to launch new products in the EU
right now. Like that's not going to

4022
03:37:32,880 --> 03:37:36,557
last. But like what what happens there,
right? And what what are the trade-offs?

4023
03:37:36,640 --> 03:37:39,357
You know, what levels of censorship are
American companies going to have to sign

4024
03:37:39,440 --> 03:37:42,877
up for if they want to operate in the EU?
Or is the EU still capable of

4025
03:37:42,960 --> 03:37:45,357
generating its own AI companies? Or have

4026
03:37:45,440 --> 03:37:47,977
we brain drained them

4027
03:37:48,060 --> 03:37:50,637
[laughter] so that they can't? So, big

4028
03:37:50,720 --> 03:37:53,837
questions. Uh, quick questions. So,

4029
03:37:53,920 --> 03:37:58,237
you're very active on X,
a very unique character,

4030
03:37:58,320 --> 03:37:59,837
um,

4031
03:37:59,920 --> 03:38:04,237
flamboyant, exciting, bold. uh you post

4032
03:38:04,320 --> 03:38:06,717
a lot. I think there's a meme I don't

4033
03:38:06,800 --> 03:38:09,437
remember it exactly but that Elon posted

4034
03:38:09,520 --> 03:38:11,677
something like uh inside Elon there are

4035
03:38:11,760 --> 03:38:14,797
two wolves. One is please be kind or

4036
03:38:14,880 --> 03:38:17,437
more positive and the other one is I

4037
03:38:17,520 --> 03:38:20,957
think uh you know doing the uh take a

4038
03:38:21,040 --> 03:38:24,637
big step back and [__]
yourself in the face guy.

4039
03:38:24,720 --> 03:38:27,997
How many wolves are inside
your mind when you're tweeting

4040
03:38:28,080 --> 03:38:31,117
>> to be clear a reference from
the comedy classic Tropic Thunder.

4041
03:38:31,200 --> 03:38:33,597
>> Tropic Thunder. Yeah. Legendary movie.

4042
03:38:33,680 --> 03:38:37,837
>> Yes. Um, [laughter] any
zoomers listening to this

4043
03:38:37,920 --> 03:38:39,917
who haven't seen that movie,
go watch it immediately.

4044
03:38:40,000 --> 03:38:41,437
>> Yeah, there's nothing
offensive about it.

4045
03:38:41,520 --> 03:38:44,307
>> Nothing offensive about it at all. Um,

4046
03:38:44,390 --> 03:38:48,877
[laughter] so Tom Cruz's
greatest performance.

4047
03:38:48,960 --> 03:38:53,837
>> Um, so um, >> yeah. >> Yeah.
No, look, I just start by saying

4048
03:38:53,920 --> 03:38:56,397
like I'm not supposed to be
tweeting at all. So >> Oh, yeah.

4049
03:38:56,480 --> 03:39:01,357
>> Yes. Yes. Yes. So, but you know, >>
so how do you approach that? like how do

4050
03:39:01,440 --> 03:39:04,797
you approach what to tweet?
>> I I mean I don't I look so it's it's a

4051
03:39:04,880 --> 03:39:09,437
it's a um it it I I don't I don't well
enough. Um it's mostly an exercise in

4052
03:39:09,520 --> 03:39:12,717
frustration. Um look there's a glory
to it and there's there's a there's an

4053
03:39:12,800 --> 03:39:15,677
issue with it and the glory of it
is like you know instantaneous global

4054
03:39:15,760 --> 03:39:19,437
communication you know in X in particular
is like the you know the town

4055
03:39:19,520 --> 03:39:22,077
square on all these you know social
issues political issues everything else

4056
03:39:22,160 --> 03:39:25,597
current events. Um but I mean look
there's no question the format the

4057
03:39:25,680 --> 03:39:29,757
format of at least the original tweet
is you know prone to be inflammatory. You

4058
03:39:29,840 --> 03:39:32,717
know, I'm I'm I'm the guy who at one
point the entire nation of India hated

4059
03:39:32,800 --> 03:39:35,037
me. Um because I once tweeted something.

4060
03:39:35,120 --> 03:39:38,557
It turned out that is still politically
sensitive. Um and the entire continent.

4061
03:39:38,640 --> 03:39:42,637
Um I stayed up all night that night
as as I became front page headline and

4062
03:39:42,720 --> 03:39:46,397
leading television news in each time
zone in India for a single tweet. So

4063
03:39:46,480 --> 03:39:48,477
like the single tweet out of context is

4064
03:39:48,560 --> 03:39:52,717
a very dangerous thing. Um obviously

4065
03:39:52,800 --> 03:39:55,517
X now has the the middle ground where
they you know they they now have the

4066
03:39:55,600 --> 03:39:58,877
longer form essays. Um, and so, um, you
know, probably the most productive thing

4067
03:39:58,960 --> 03:40:03,677
I can do is is is longer form,
um, is is longer form things. Um,

4068
03:40:03,760 --> 03:40:04,877
>> you're not going
to do it though, are you?

4069
03:40:04,960 --> 03:40:07,677
>> I do. I do from time to time.
I think I should I should do more of them.

4070
03:40:07,760 --> 03:40:10,797
>> And then, yeah, I mean, look, but and
yeah, and then obviously X is X is doing

4071
03:40:10,880 --> 03:40:13,597
great. And then, uh, like I said,
like Substack, you know, has become the

4072
03:40:13,680 --> 03:40:16,397
center for a lot, you know, a lot
of the I think the best kind of, you know,

4073
03:40:16,480 --> 03:40:20,797
deeply thought through, you know,
certainly intellectual content. Um, you

4074
03:40:20,880 --> 03:40:24,637
know, tons of current events, uh, stuff
there as well. Um, and then, um, yeah.

4075
03:40:24,720 --> 03:40:26,797
So, and then there's a bunch of other,
you know, a bunch of new systems that

4076
03:40:26,880 --> 03:40:29,277
are very exciting. So, I think one of
the things we can look forward to in the

4077
03:40:29,360 --> 03:40:32,957
next four years is number one, just like
a massive reinvigoration of social media

4078
03:40:33,040 --> 03:40:35,837
>> as a consequence of the changes
that are happening right now. Uh, and very

4079
03:40:35,920 --> 03:40:38,797
excited to see the con to see what's
going to happen with that. And then, um,

4080
03:40:38,880 --> 03:40:42,717
I it's happened on X, but it's now
going to happen on other platforms.

4081
03:40:42,800 --> 03:40:46,637
>> And then, um, the other is, um, crypto
is going to come, you know, crypto is

4082
03:40:46,720 --> 03:40:49,357
going to come right back to life.
Um, and actually that's very exciting.

4083
03:40:49,440 --> 03:40:52,477
Actually, that's worth noting is that's
another trillion dollar question on AI,

4084
03:40:52,560 --> 03:40:57,437
which is um in a world of pervasive AI
and especially in a world of AI agents,

4085
03:40:57,520 --> 03:40:58,637
and imagine a world of billions or

4086
03:40:58,720 --> 03:41:00,557
trillions of AI agents running around,

4087
03:41:00,640 --> 03:41:05,917
they need an economy. Um and crypto
in our view happens to be the ideal

4088
03:41:06,000 --> 03:41:08,637
economic system for that, right? Because
it's a programmable money. It's a very

4089
03:41:08,720 --> 03:41:11,757
easy way to plug in and do that.
And there's this transaction processing

4090
03:41:11,840 --> 03:41:15,117
system that can that can do that. And so,
I think the crypto AI intersection,

4091
03:41:15,200 --> 03:41:19,997
you know, is potentially very a very
very big deal. Um, and so when that was

4092
03:41:20,080 --> 03:41:22,717
that was going to be impossible under
the prior regime, and I think under the

4093
03:41:22,800 --> 03:41:25,277
new regime, hopefully it'll
be something we can do.

4094
03:41:25,360 --> 03:41:27,757
>> Uh, almost for fun, let me ask uh a

4095
03:41:27,840 --> 03:41:32,637
friend of yours, Yan Lun, what are
your top 10 favorite things about Yan Lun?

4096
03:41:32,720 --> 03:41:38,077
[laughter] >> He's uh I think he's
a he's a brilliant guy. I think he's

4097
03:41:38,160 --> 03:41:42,157
important to the world. I think you
guys disagree on a lot of things, but I

4098
03:41:42,240 --> 03:41:44,397
personally like vigorous disagreement. I

4099
03:41:44,480 --> 03:41:49,197
as a person in the stands like
to watch the gladiators go at it. And

4100
03:41:49,280 --> 03:41:52,317
>> no, he's a super genius. I mean, look,
I wouldn't say if we're super close, but

4101
03:41:52,400 --> 03:41:55,117
you know, casual casual friends. I I
worked with him at Meta, you know, he's

4102
03:41:55,200 --> 03:41:57,997
the chief scientist at Meta for a long
time and is still, you know, works with

4103
03:41:58,080 --> 03:42:02,957
us and and um you know, and as obviously
he's a legendary figure in the field and

4104
03:42:03,040 --> 03:42:06,477
one of the main people responsible
for what's happening. Um I it's my serious

4105
03:42:06,560 --> 03:42:10,237
observation would be that it's it's
it's the thing I keep I've talked to him

4106
03:42:10,320 --> 03:42:13,117
about for a long time and I keep trying
to read and follow everything he does is

4107
03:42:13,200 --> 03:42:16,397
he's probably he is the I think see if

4108
03:42:16,480 --> 03:42:21,117
you agree with this he is the smartest
and most credible critic of LLM is the

4109
03:42:21,200 --> 03:42:25,197
path for AI. Um, and um,
he's not, you know, there's

4110
03:42:25,280 --> 03:42:27,757
certain, I would say, troll like
characters who are just like crap on

4111
03:42:27,840 --> 03:42:31,517
everything, but like Yan has like very
deeply thought through basically um,

4112
03:42:31,600 --> 03:42:33,277
theories as to why LMs are an

4113
03:42:33,360 --> 03:42:37,437
evolutionary dead end. Um, and um, and I

4114
03:42:37,520 --> 03:42:40,477
actually like um, I I try to do this
thing where I try to model, you know, I

4115
03:42:40,560 --> 03:42:42,637
try to have a mental model of like
the two different sides of a serious

4116
03:42:42,720 --> 03:42:45,357
argument. And so I I've tried to like
internalize that argument as much as I

4117
03:42:45,440 --> 03:42:48,317
can, which is difficult because
like we're investing it behind LM as

4118
03:42:48,400 --> 03:42:52,157
aggressively as we can. So if he's right,
like that can be a big problem.

4119
03:42:52,240 --> 03:42:56,637
But like we should also know that.
Um and then I sort of use his ideas to

4120
03:42:56,720 --> 03:43:00,477
challenge all the bullish people, you
know, to really kind of test their level

4121
03:43:00,560 --> 03:43:04,077
of knowledge. So I like to kind of grill
people like I'm not like I'm not you

4122
03:43:04,160 --> 03:43:09,357
know I'm I'm I was not you know I
was got my CS degree 35 years ago. So I'm

4123
03:43:09,440 --> 03:43:12,317
not like deep in the technology but like
if if to the extent I can understand

4124
03:43:12,400 --> 03:43:16,477
Yan's points I can use them to um you
know to really surface a lot of the

4125
03:43:16,560 --> 03:43:19,277
questions for the people who are more
bullish. Um and that's been I think very

4126
03:43:19,360 --> 03:43:23,117
very productive. Um yeah. So I yeah
just it's very striking that you have

4127
03:43:23,200 --> 03:43:27,517
somebody who is like that central in the
space who is actually like a full-on a

4128
03:43:27,600 --> 03:43:31,117
full-on skeptic and and you know
and again as you this could go different

4129
03:43:31,200 --> 03:43:33,197
ways. He could end up being very wrong.

4130
03:43:33,280 --> 03:43:36,797
He could end up being totally right
or it could be that he will provoke the

4131
03:43:36,880 --> 03:43:39,757
evolution of these systems to be
much better than they would have been.

4132
03:43:39,840 --> 03:43:41,037
>> Yeah, he could be both right and wrong.

4133
03:43:41,120 --> 03:43:43,037
I I first of all I do I do agree with

4134
03:43:43,120 --> 03:43:45,837
that. He's one of the most legit and uh

4135
03:43:45,920 --> 03:43:49,357
rigorous and deep critics of the LLM

4136
03:43:49,440 --> 03:43:53,837
path to AGI. You know, his basic notion
is that there needs AI needs to have

4137
03:43:53,920 --> 03:43:57,997
some physical understanding
of the physical world and

4138
03:43:58,080 --> 03:44:02,237
that's very difficult to achieve with LLM.
So there and that that is a really

4139
03:44:02,320 --> 03:44:04,477
good way to challenge the limitations of

4140
03:44:04,560 --> 03:44:08,477
LLMs and so on. He's also been a vocal

4141
03:44:08,560 --> 03:44:12,237
and a huge proponent of open source
which is a whole another which you have

4142
03:44:12,320 --> 03:44:13,917
been as well >> which
is very useful. Yeah.

4143
03:44:14,000 --> 03:44:15,597
>> And that's been just
fascinating to watch.

4144
03:44:15,680 --> 03:44:17,757
>> And anti-doomer. >> Anti-doomer.

4145
03:44:17,840 --> 03:44:20,157
>> Yeah. >> Yeah.
He's >> he's very anti-doomer.

4146
03:44:20,240 --> 03:44:23,197
>> He embodies.
He also has many wolves inside.

4147
03:44:23,280 --> 03:44:25,517
>> Yes, he does. Yes, he does.
Yes, he does. [laughter] He does.

4148
03:44:25,600 --> 03:44:27,277
>> So, it's been really
really fun to watch.

4149
03:44:27,360 --> 03:44:29,117
>> The other two Okay,
here's my other wolf

4150
03:44:29,200 --> 03:44:30,637
coming out. Yeah. The other two of the

4151
03:44:30,720 --> 03:44:34,237
three godfathers of AI are like radicals

4152
03:44:34,320 --> 03:44:38,957
like like full-on left you know far-left
you know like they I would say like

4153
03:44:39,040 --> 03:44:42,317
either Marxists or borderline Marxists
um and they're like I think quite

4154
03:44:42,400 --> 03:44:45,677
extreme in their social and political
views and I think that feeds into their

4155
03:44:45,760 --> 03:44:49,277
dumerism um and I think you know
they they they are lobbying for like

4156
03:44:49,360 --> 03:44:52,397
draconian government I think what would
be ruinously destructive government

4157
03:44:52,480 --> 03:44:56,237
legislation um and regulation and so
it's it's actually super helpful super

4158
03:44:56,320 --> 03:44:59,597
super helpful to have Jan
as a counterpoint to those

4159
03:44:59,680 --> 03:45:04,237
Another fun question. Uh, our mutual
friend Andrew Huberman. First maybe what

4160
03:45:04,320 --> 03:45:08,477
do you love most about Andrew? And second,
what score on a scale of 1 to 10

4161
03:45:08,560 --> 03:45:11,837
do you think he would give
you on your approach to health?

4162
03:45:11,920 --> 03:45:16,237
>> Oh, three. >> Physical three.
You think you score that high, huh? Okay.

4163
03:45:16,320 --> 03:45:18,877
>> Exactly. >> 10. That's good. [laughter]

4164
03:45:18,960 --> 03:45:20,877
>> Exactly. Well,
so he he did he convinced

4165
03:45:20,960 --> 03:45:23,997
me to stop drinking alcohol.
Um, which was a big successfully.

4166
03:45:24,080 --> 03:45:26,797
>> Well, it was like my fa other than
my family, it was my favorite thing in the

4167
03:45:26,880 --> 03:45:29,357
world. Yeah. >> And so it
was a major major reduction.

4168
03:45:29,440 --> 03:45:32,397
Like having like a glass of scotch
at night was like a major like it was like

4169
03:45:32,480 --> 03:45:35,677
the thing I would do to relax. And so
he has profoundly negatively impacted my

4170
03:45:35,760 --> 03:45:39,277
emotional health.
>> Um [laughter] I uh I blame him for

4171
03:45:39,360 --> 03:45:42,797
making me much less happy as a person,
but much much much healthier.

4172
03:45:42,880 --> 03:45:45,517
>> Yeah. >> Uh physically
healthier. So that that I

4173
03:45:45,600 --> 03:45:49,437
I credit him with that. I'm glad I did
that. Um but then his sleep stuff, like

4174
03:45:49,520 --> 03:45:51,037
yeah, I'm not doing any of that.

4175
03:45:51,120 --> 03:45:53,037
>> Yeah. >> I have no
interest in his sleep [__]

4176
03:45:53,120 --> 03:45:56,077
Like no this whole light, natural light.

4177
03:45:56,160 --> 03:45:58,237
No, we're not doing that.
>> You're too hardcore for this. I

4178
03:45:58,320 --> 03:46:00,877
>> don't see any say I don't see any
natural I don't see any natural light in

4179
03:46:00,960 --> 03:46:04,237
here. >> It's all covered.
>> It's all horrible.

4180
03:46:04,320 --> 03:46:08,077
>> And I'm very happy. I would be very
happy living and working here cuz I'm

4181
03:46:08,160 --> 03:46:10,397
totally happy without
natural light >> in darkness.

4182
03:46:10,480 --> 03:46:12,637
>> Yes. >> It must be
a metaphor for something.

4183
03:46:12,720 --> 03:46:15,197
>> Yes. It's a test. Look, it's a test
of manhood as to whether you could have a

4184
03:46:15,280 --> 03:46:17,837
blue screen in your face for 3 hours
and then go right to sleep. Like I don't

4185
03:46:17,920 --> 03:46:21,277
understand why you should
want to take shortcuts.

4186
03:46:21,360 --> 03:46:23,597
>> Um I now understand what they mean by

4187
03:46:23,680 --> 03:46:29,000
toxic masculinity. All right.

4188
03:46:29,120 --> 03:46:32,637
So, uh, let's see. You're exceptionally

4189
03:46:32,720 --> 03:46:35,997
successful by most measures,

4190
03:46:36,080 --> 03:46:39,997
but what to you is the
definition of success.

4191
03:46:40,080 --> 03:46:42,957
>> I would probably
say it is a combination

4192
03:46:43,040 --> 03:46:46,317
of two things. I think it is um

4193
03:46:46,400 --> 03:46:48,077
contribution.

4194
03:46:48,160 --> 03:46:49,997
Um, so you know, have you done something

4195
03:46:50,080 --> 03:46:54,077
that mattered ultimately? Um and um and

4196
03:46:54,160 --> 03:46:57,517
you know and specifically it matter to
people. Um and then the other thing is I

4197
03:46:57,600 --> 03:47:02,877
think happiness is either overrated
or almost a complete myth. Um and in fact

4198
03:47:02,960 --> 03:47:05,277
interesting Thomas Jefferson did
not mean happiness the way that we

4199
03:47:05,360 --> 03:47:07,917
understand it when he said pursuit
of happiness in the Declaration of

4200
03:47:08,000 --> 03:47:12,477
Independence. He meant it more of the
the Greek meaning um which is closer to

4201
03:47:12,560 --> 03:47:16,557
satisfaction or fulfillment.
Um, and so I [laughter]

4202
03:47:16,640 --> 03:47:21,437
think happiness is so I think about
happiness as the first the first ice

4203
03:47:21,520 --> 03:47:25,037
cream cone makes you super happy.
The first mile of the walk in the park and

4204
03:47:25,120 --> 03:47:29,357
during sunset makes you super happy.
The first kiss makes you super happy. The

4205
03:47:29,440 --> 03:47:31,757
thousandth ice cream cone,

4206
03:47:31,840 --> 03:47:34,797
not so much. Um, the thousandth mile of

4207
03:47:34,880 --> 03:47:38,797
the walk through the park. Um,
the thousandth kiss can still be good, but

4208
03:47:38,880 --> 03:47:43,597
maybe just not right in a row. Um,
right. And so happiness is this very

4209
03:47:43,680 --> 03:47:47,357
fleeting concept. Um, and the people
who anger on happiness seem to go off the

4210
03:47:47,440 --> 03:47:49,437
rails pretty often. So did the deep

4211
03:47:49,520 --> 03:47:56,360
sense of having been I don't
know how to put it useful.

4212
03:47:57,520 --> 03:48:00,317
>> So that's a good place
to arrive at in life.

4213
03:48:00,400 --> 03:48:04,877
>> Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I mean like can
you sit can yeah you know who was it who

4214
03:48:04,960 --> 03:48:07,677
said that all this the source of all the
ills in the world is man's inability to

4215
03:48:07,760 --> 03:48:10,397
sit in a room by himself doing nothing.

4216
03:48:10,480 --> 03:48:13,117
Um, but like if you're sitting in a room
by yourself and you're like, "All

4217
03:48:13,200 --> 03:48:15,997
right," or, you know, 4 in the morning
and it's like, "All right, have I like,

4218
03:48:16,080 --> 03:48:19,197
you know, have I lived up
to my expectation of myself,

4219
03:48:19,280 --> 03:48:21,917
like if you have, you know, the people
I know who feel that way are are pretty

4220
03:48:22,000 --> 03:48:26,637
centered, um, and, um, you know,
generally seem very, um, I don't know

4221
03:48:26,720 --> 03:48:29,917
how to put it, pleased
with, you know, proud,

4222
03:48:30,000 --> 03:48:32,557
um, calm, at peace,

4223
03:48:32,640 --> 03:48:37,277
um, the people who are, um,
you know, sensation seekers. Um

4224
03:48:37,360 --> 03:48:39,677
you know some of the sensations
by the way some s you know there's there's

4225
03:48:39,760 --> 03:48:42,077
certain entrepreneurs for example
who are like in every form of extreme

4226
03:48:42,160 --> 03:48:45,997
extreme sport and they get you know huge
satisfaction out of that um or you know

4227
03:48:46,080 --> 03:48:48,637
there's sensation seeking in sort
of useful and productive ways you know

4228
03:48:48,720 --> 03:48:52,557
Larry Ellison was always like that
Zuckerberg's like that and then you know

4229
03:48:52,640 --> 03:48:53,997
there's a lot of entrepreneurs who end

4230
03:48:54,080 --> 03:48:56,737
up you know drugs

4231
03:48:56,820 --> 03:49:01,277
[laughter] you know like sexual you know
sexual escapades that seem like they'll

4232
03:49:01,360 --> 03:49:02,797
be fun at first and then backfire.

4233
03:49:02,880 --> 03:49:07,197
>> Yeah. But at the end of the day,
if you're able to be at peace by yourself

4234
03:49:07,280 --> 03:49:09,357
in a room at 4:00 a.m. >> Yeah.

4235
03:49:09,440 --> 03:49:11,597
>> And I would even
say happy, but I know I

4236
03:49:11,680 --> 03:49:13,597
understand Thomas Jefferson didn't mean

4237
03:49:13,680 --> 03:49:19,197
it the way the way maybe I mean it, but I
can be happy about myself at 4:00 a.m.

4238
03:49:19,280 --> 03:49:21,837
with a blue screen.
>> That's good. Exactly.

4239
03:49:21,920 --> 03:49:26,200
>> Staring at cursor. >> Exactly.

4240
03:49:26,560 --> 03:49:30,717
As a small tangent, a quick shout out
to an amazing interview you did with Barry

4241
03:49:30,800 --> 03:49:35,597
Weiss and just to her in general, Barry
Weiss of uh the free press. She has a

4242
03:49:35,680 --> 03:49:37,437
podcast called Honestly with Bear Weiss.

4243
03:49:37,520 --> 03:49:39,837
She's great. People should go listen.

4244
03:49:39,920 --> 03:49:45,037
You were asked if you believe in God.

4245
03:49:45,120 --> 03:49:48,077
One of the joys, see we talked about
happiness. One of the things that makes

4246
03:49:48,160 --> 03:49:50,237
me happy is making you uncomfortable.

4247
03:49:50,320 --> 03:49:54,077
>> Thank you. So the this question is
designed for many of the questions today

4248
03:49:54,160 --> 03:49:55,997
are designed for that. You [snorts] were

4249
03:49:56,080 --> 03:49:57,837
asked if you believe in God and you said

4250
03:49:57,920 --> 03:50:01,197
after a pause that you're not sure. So

4251
03:50:01,280 --> 03:50:03,597
it felt like the pause

4252
03:50:03,680 --> 03:50:07,517
the uncertainty there was uh uh some

4253
03:50:07,600 --> 03:50:09,597
kind of ongoing search for wisdom and

4254
03:50:09,680 --> 03:50:13,357
meaning. Uh are you in fact searching

4255
03:50:13,440 --> 03:50:14,717
for wisdom and meaning?

4256
03:50:14,800 --> 03:50:17,517
>> I guess I put it this way.
There's a lot

4257
03:50:17,600 --> 03:50:20,877
to just understand about people that I

4258
03:50:20,960 --> 03:50:24,957
feel like I'm only starting to understand.

4259
03:50:25,040 --> 03:50:27,517
Um, and that's certainly a simpler

4260
03:50:27,600 --> 03:50:31,997
concept than God. [laughter] So,
um, that's what I spent a lot of the

4261
03:50:32,080 --> 03:50:35,197
last, you know, 15 years trying to figure
out. I feel like I spent my first

4262
03:50:35,280 --> 03:50:38,157
like whatever 30 years figuring out
machines and then now I'm spending 30

4263
03:50:38,240 --> 03:50:40,877
years figuring out people, which turns
out to be quite a bit more complicated.

4264
03:50:40,960 --> 03:50:42,797
Um, and then I don't know, maybe God's

4265
03:50:42,880 --> 03:50:48,317
the last 30 years or something.
Um uh and then you know look I mean just

4266
03:50:48,400 --> 03:50:51,517
you know like like Elon is just like
okay the known universe is like very you

4267
03:50:51,600 --> 03:50:55,277
know complicated and you know mystifying.
I mean every time I you know

4268
03:50:55,360 --> 03:50:57,757
pull up an astronomy you know my kids
get super in astronomy and it's like you

4269
03:50:57,840 --> 03:51:00,797
know you know daddy how many galaxies
are there in the universe and you know

4270
03:51:00,880 --> 03:51:03,677
what's how many galaxies
are there in the universe?

4271
03:51:03,760 --> 03:51:08,440
>> 100 billion. >> Okay. Like how

4272
03:51:08,720 --> 03:51:11,997
>> like how is that
freaking possible? Like

4273
03:51:12,080 --> 03:51:15,997
what? Like it's just it's such
a staggering concept that I

4274
03:51:16,080 --> 03:51:17,917
>> I actually wanted to show you a tweet

4275
03:51:18,000 --> 03:51:23,037
that blew my mind from Elon from a while
back. He said uh Elon said as a friend

4276
03:51:23,120 --> 03:51:24,717
called it, this is the ultimate skill

4277
03:51:24,800 --> 03:51:30,877
tree. This is a wall of galaxies,
>> a billion light years across.

4278
03:51:30,960 --> 03:51:32,877
>> Yeah. >> So these are all galaxies.

4279
03:51:32,960 --> 03:51:38,397
>> Yeah. Like what the like how how
is it that big? like how the hell like you

4280
03:51:38,480 --> 03:51:40,797
know I can read the textbook and the
this and the that and the whatever 8

4281
03:51:40,880 --> 03:51:43,517
billion years and the big bang and the
whole thing and then it's just like all

4282
03:51:43,600 --> 03:51:44,797
right wow and then it's like all right

4283
03:51:44,880 --> 03:51:47,437
the big bang all right like what was

4284
03:51:47,520 --> 03:51:50,557
what was before the big bang

4285
03:51:50,640 --> 03:51:52,317
>> you think we'll
ever we humans will ever

4286
03:51:52,400 --> 03:51:56,397
colonize like a galaxy
and maybe even go beyond

4287
03:51:56,480 --> 03:51:58,877
>> sure I mean yeah I mean
in the fullness of time yeah

4288
03:51:58,960 --> 03:52:01,837
>> so you have that kind of optimism
you have that kind of hope that extends

4289
03:52:01,920 --> 03:52:03,677
across thousand >> in the
fullness of time I mean yeah I

4290
03:52:03,760 --> 03:52:05,917
mean yeah you know all the all the
problem all the challenges with it that

4291
03:52:06,000 --> 03:52:09,357
I do But like, yeah, why not? I mean,
again, in the fullness of time, it'll

4292
03:52:09,440 --> 03:52:11,517
it'll take a long time. >> You
don't think we'll destroy ourselves?

4293
03:52:11,600 --> 03:52:15,857
>> No, I I doubt it. I doubt it.
And, you know, fortunately, we have Elon

4294
03:52:15,940 --> 03:52:19,117
[laughter] giving us giving us the the
backup plan. So, so I don't know. Like,

4295
03:52:19,200 --> 03:52:21,597
I grew up, you know, rural Midwest
sort of just like conventionally kind of

4296
03:52:21,680 --> 03:52:25,437
Protestant Christian. Um, it never made
that much sense to me. Got trained as an

4297
03:52:25,520 --> 03:52:28,077
engineer and a scientist. I'm like, "Oh,
that definitely doesn't make sense." I'm

4298
03:52:28,160 --> 03:52:30,957
like, "I know. I'll spend my life
as an empirical, you know, rationalist and

4299
03:52:31,040 --> 03:52:34,317
I'll I'll figure everything out." And
then, you know, and then again, you walk

4300
03:52:34,400 --> 03:52:37,837
up against these things, you know,
you you bump up against these things and

4301
03:52:37,920 --> 03:52:40,717
you're just like, "All right, I like,
okay, I guess there's a scientific

4302
03:52:40,800 --> 03:52:44,157
explanation for this, but like, wow."

4303
03:52:44,240 --> 03:52:47,357
Um, and then there's like, "All right,
where did that come from?" Um, right.

4304
03:52:47,440 --> 03:52:52,077
And then how how far back can you go on
the causality chain? Um, yeah. And then,

4305
03:52:52,160 --> 03:52:54,637
yeah, I mean, then even even just,
you know, experiences that we all have on

4306
03:52:54,720 --> 03:52:57,357
Earth, it's it's hard to it's hard to
rationally explain it all. And then, you

4307
03:52:57,440 --> 03:53:01,597
know, so yeah, I guess I just say I'm
kind of radically open-minded. um at

4308
03:53:01,680 --> 03:53:04,877
peace with the fact that I'll probably
never know. Um the other thing though

4309
03:53:04,960 --> 03:53:07,997
that's happened and maybe the more more
practical answer to the question is um I

4310
03:53:08,080 --> 03:53:11,837
think I have a much better understanding
now of the role that religion plays in

4311
03:53:11,920 --> 03:53:16,637
society that I didn't have when I
was younger. Um and my partner Ben has a

4312
03:53:16,720 --> 03:53:19,597
great I think he quotes his father
on this. He's like if if a man does not

4313
03:53:19,680 --> 03:53:21,117
have a real religion he makes up a fake

4314
03:53:21,200 --> 03:53:24,157
one. Um and the fake ones go very very

4315
03:53:24,240 --> 03:53:29,197
badly. Um and so there's
this class it's actually really

4316
03:53:29,280 --> 03:53:30,957
funny. There's this class of intellectual.
There's this class of

4317
03:53:31,040 --> 03:53:33,677
intellectual that has what appears to be
a very patronizing point of view, which

4318
03:53:33,760 --> 03:53:35,997
is yes, I'm an atheist, but it's very

4319
03:53:36,080 --> 03:53:40,957
important that the people believe
in something, right? And Mark's had like

4320
03:53:41,040 --> 03:53:43,517
the negative view on that, which
is religionist, OP to the masses, but

4321
03:53:43,600 --> 03:53:45,757
there's a lot of like right-wing
intellectuals who are themselves, I

4322
03:53:45,840 --> 03:53:48,317
think, pretty atheist, agnostic, that are
like it's deeply important that the

4323
03:53:48,400 --> 03:53:52,397
people be Christian or or something like
that. Um, and on the one hand it's like,

4324
03:53:52,480 --> 03:53:55,597
wow, that's arrogant, presumptive. But
on the other hand, you know, maybe it's

4325
03:53:55,680 --> 03:54:00,397
right because, you know, what have we
learned in the last hundred years is in

4326
03:54:00,480 --> 03:54:04,797
the absence of a real religion, people
will make up fake ones. Um, there's this

4327
03:54:04,880 --> 03:54:07,357
writer, there's this political
philosopher who's super interesting on

4328
03:54:07,440 --> 03:54:11,197
this named Eric Boglin. And he wrote
this, he wrote in the sort of mid mid

4329
03:54:11,280 --> 03:54:14,957
part of the century, mid late part
of the 20th century. He's like born in I

4330
03:54:15,040 --> 03:54:18,237
think like 1900 and like died in like 85.
So he saw the complete run of

4331
03:54:18,320 --> 03:54:23,437
communism and and uh and Nazism
and himself you know fled I think he

4332
03:54:23,520 --> 03:54:27,837
fled Europe and and you know the whole
thing. Um and um you know his his sort

4333
03:54:27,920 --> 03:54:31,277
of big conclusion was basically that
both communism and Nazism and fascism

4334
03:54:31,360 --> 03:54:36,157
were were basically religions were were
but like in the deep way of religions

4335
03:54:36,240 --> 03:54:38,717
like they were you know he called them
political religions but they they were

4336
03:54:38,800 --> 03:54:42,717
like actual religions and you know they
were the they were what Nze forecasted

4337
03:54:42,800 --> 03:54:45,917
when he said you know God is dead we've
killed him and we won't wash the blood

4338
03:54:46,000 --> 03:54:49,997
off our hands for a thousand years right
um is we will come up with new religions

4339
03:54:50,080 --> 03:54:54,557
that will just cause just mass murder
and death. Um, and like you you read his

4340
03:54:54,640 --> 03:54:57,677
stuff now and you're like, "Yep, [clears
throat] that happened." Right? And then of

4341
03:54:57,760 --> 03:55:00,477
course as fully, you know, elite
moderates, of course, we couldn't

4342
03:55:00,560 --> 03:55:04,637
possibly be doing that to ourselves
right now, but of course we are. And you

4343
03:55:04,720 --> 03:55:07,917
know, I would argue that Eric Vogelan
for sure would argue that the last 10

4344
03:55:08,000 --> 03:55:11,197
years, you know, we have been in a
religious frenzy. You know, that that

4345
03:55:11,280 --> 03:55:14,717
woke has been a full-scale religious
frenzy. Um, and has had all of the

4346
03:55:14,800 --> 03:55:16,477
characteristics of a religion, including

4347
03:55:16,560 --> 03:55:18,077
everything from patron saints to holy

4348
03:55:18,160 --> 03:55:22,237
texts to, you know, sin. It's said

4349
03:55:22,320 --> 03:55:26,397
wokenness has said every aspect of a
wokeness has said every I think it's

4350
03:55:26,480 --> 03:55:30,717
said every single aspect of an actual
religion other than redemption

4351
03:55:30,800 --> 03:55:33,597
right which is maybe like the most
dangerous religion you could ever come

4352
03:55:33,680 --> 03:55:36,557
up with is the one where
there's no forgiveness

4353
03:55:36,640 --> 03:55:39,437
right so I think if Voggan were alive
I think he would have zeroed right in on

4354
03:55:39,520 --> 03:55:43,437
that would have said that um and you
know we just like sailed right off I

4355
03:55:43,520 --> 03:55:46,077
mentioned earlier like we we somehow
rediscover the religions of the

4356
03:55:46,160 --> 03:55:50,237
Indo-Uropeans were all into identity
politics and environmentalism

4357
03:55:50,320 --> 03:55:52,637
like I don't I think that's an accident.

4358
03:55:52,720 --> 03:55:54,397
So, so anyway, like there there is

4359
03:55:54,480 --> 03:55:56,797
something very deep going on in the

4360
03:55:56,880 --> 03:56:01,277
human psyche um on religion that is not

4361
03:56:01,360 --> 03:56:03,997
dismissible

4362
03:56:04,080 --> 03:56:06,717
and needs to be taken seriously even if

4363
03:56:06,800 --> 03:56:08,637
one struggles with the the um specifics

4364
03:56:08,720 --> 03:56:11,197
of it. I think I speak for a lot of

4365
03:56:11,280 --> 03:56:13,757
people that it's been a real joy and for

4366
03:56:13,840 --> 03:56:17,437
me an honor to get to watch you

4367
03:56:17,520 --> 03:56:21,597
uh seek to understand the human psyche
as you described. You're in that 30-year

4368
03:56:21,680 --> 03:56:25,837
part of your life.
>> Um and it's been an honor to talk with

4369
03:56:25,920 --> 03:56:30,077
you today. Thank you, Mark. >> Thank
you, Alex. Is that it? That's only

4370
03:56:30,160 --> 03:56:34,317
only how long is that?
>> Four hours with uh Mark Andrew is like

4371
03:56:34,400 --> 03:56:38,397
40 hours of actual content. So >> I
I I'll accept being one of the short

4372
03:56:38,480 --> 03:56:40,397
ones. Uh for the [laughter] for the

4373
03:56:40,480 --> 03:56:43,037
listener, Mark looks like he's ready to

4374
03:56:43,120 --> 03:56:48,157
go for 20 more hours and I need a nap.
[laughter] Thank you, Mark.

4375
03:56:48,240 --> 03:56:50,877
>> Thank you, Lex.
>> Thanks for listening to this

4376
03:56:50,960 --> 03:56:54,877
conversation with Mark Andre. To support
this podcast, please check out our

4377
03:56:54,960 --> 03:56:57,677
sponsors in the description. And now,

4378
03:56:57,760 --> 03:57:01,997
let me leave you with some
words from Thomas Soul.

4379
03:57:02,080 --> 03:57:07,197
It takes considerable knowledge just
to realize the extent of your own

4380
03:57:07,280 --> 03:57:08,957
ignorance.

4381
03:57:09,040 --> 03:57:14,760
Thank you for listening
and hope to see you next time.

4382
03:57:22,480 --> 03:57:24,500
>> [music]