# #458 – Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America

*MindVoice Production* · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF1pTy-L6Bw

## Summary

In this long-form conversation, Marc Andreessen lays out an optimistic vision of a new "roaring 20s" for America under the Trump administration, arguing that the US is uniquely primed for growth while competitors stagnate. He traces the roots of American individualism, explains preference falsification and the post-election "vibe shift," and argues that government censorship and debanking crossed into criminal territory. He also covers why he thinks universities are broken beyond repair, how DOGE might cut spending and regulation, a nuanced take on H-1B visas tied to affirmative action, and the open "trillion dollar questions" facing AI.

## Key points

- Andreessen predicts a "roaring 20s" economic boom, comparing the current moment to Reagan's turnaround after the 1970s malaise.
- He argues most elites don't hold firm beliefs but conform to the press, universities and foundations, citing Timur Kuran's preference falsification.
- He calls government censorship and debanking of tech companies flagrant criminality and wants investigations and prosecutions.
- He believes universities are so corrupted that they must be allowed to fail and be replaced rather than reformed.
- He says the second Trump administration is drawing a much deeper, younger and more capable talent pool than the first.
- On H-1B visas, he argues high-skilled immigration can't be separated from DEI, which he says excludes native-born Americans of all groups.
- He calls AI coding the biggest revolution in software and predicts roughly ten times more coding jobs in ten years.
- He defines success as contribution and being at peace with yourself, not fleeting happiness.

## Notes

### Optimism and the American Spirit
- Andreessen predicts a new "roaring 20s": the US kept growing while Canada, the UK and Germany stopped, thanks to geography, natural resources, energy potential, immigration of driven people, and leadership in software, AI and biotech.
- He compares the last decade to the 1970s malaise and sees a Reagan-style rebound in national spirit.

### The Ancient City and Tradition
- Fustel de Coulanges' book reconstructs Indo-European society: family, tribe, city; master morality; ancestor and nature worship; no individual rights.
- He argues modern secular society re-evolved the same religions: identity politics as ancestor worship, environmentalism as nature worship. Tradition matters as distilled evolutionary learning, but full traditionalism blocks progress.

### Preference Falsification
- Timur Kuran's *Private Truths, Public Lies* and Havel's *Power of the Powerless* (the green grocer parable) explain how societies lie publicly until one person stands up—Elon buying X, Substack, and Zuckerberg's changes broke the spell.
- His rough split: 20% true believers, 20% dissenters, 60% who conform. Humor and encrypted group chats were the whisper networks of the soft-authoritarian decade.

### Censorship and Government Pressure
- He was asked to build a nudity filter in 1992-93 and refused. From 2012-13, hate speech and misinformation rules became a "ring of power," culminating in censoring lab-leak theories; John Stewart's Colbert appearance and Nicholson Baker's New York magazine piece were catalytic moments.
- He calls government censorship and debanking flagrant felonies (18 USC 241/242) and wants investigations and prosecutions.

### Universities, DOGE, Immigration
- Universities are run by tenured professors and "feral students" and must fail to be replaced; accreditation is a cartel.
- DOGE targets money, people and regulations, aided by recent Supreme Court rulings and social-media transparency; he cites impoundment and the year-end budget flush.
- On H-1B: he supports skilled immigration but ties it to DEI/affirmative action excluding native-born Americans, and questions brain-draining the world; the valley mostly uses O-1 visas now.

### AI
- AI coding is the golden age for builders; he predicts ~10x more coding jobs in 10 years. Open "trillion dollar questions": big vs small models, open vs closed, synthetic data, hallucinations, censorship of models, and the OpenAI for-profit flip.

## Transcript

[00:00] The following is a conversation with Mark Andre, his second time on the podcast. Mark is a visionary tech leader and investor who fundamentally shaped the development of the internet and the tech industry in general over the past 30 years. He is the co-creator of Mosaic, the first widely used web browser, co-founder of Netscape, co-founder of the legendary Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andre Horowitz, and is one of the most influential voices in the tech world, including at the intersection of technology and politics. And now, a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description. It's the best way to support this podcast. We got Encord for unifying your ML stack, GitHub for

[00:47] programming, notion for team projects and collaboration, Shopify for merch, and Element for hydration. Choose wisely, my friends. Also, if you want to get in touch with me for whatever reason, go to lexfreeman.com/cont. And now on to the full ad reads. No ads in the middle. I try to make this interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out the sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too. This episode is brought to you by Encord, a platform that provides data focused AI tooling for data annotation, curation, and management, and for model evaluation once you train up the model on the data that you curate. In this conversation with Mark Andre, we actually discuss what he calls kind of

[01:35] like the trillion dollar questions. And one of them for AI is how effective will synthetic data be? It really isn't an open question. What piece, what fraction of the intelligence of future models will be based on training on synthetic data at the top AI labs. I'm hearing a lot of optimism. As far as I can tell, that optimism is not currently, at least in the general case, based on any real evidence. So, I do think synthetic data will play a part, but how big a part? There's still going to be some curation from humans. There's still going to need to be a human in the loop. I think the real question is how do you effectively integrate the human in the loop so that the synthetic data sort of 99 synthetic

[02:27] 1% human [sighs] that combination can be most effective. That's a real question and uh companies like Encord are trying to solve that very problem. First of all, they want to provide the tooling for the annotation for the actual um human collaboration but also asking and answering the research question of like how do you pull it all off and make the resulting model more intelligent for very specific applications and for the general applications. Yeah. So, Encore does a really good job on the tooling side. Go try them out to curate, annotate, and manage your AI data at encord.com/lex. That's encord.com/lex. This episode is brought to you by GitHub and GitHub Copilot. If you don't know what that is, my friends, you're in for

[03:20] a joyous, beautiful surprise. I think a lot of people that program regularly know and love GitHub and know and love Copilot. It's the OG AI programming assistant and uh it's the one that's really trying to win this very competitive space. It is not easy. If you're somebody that uses VS Code, obviously, well, maybe not obviously, but uh you can use GitHub copilot in VS Code, but you can use it also in other IDE. I'm going to be honest with you, it's a very competitive space. I'm trying all the different tools in the space, and I really love how much GitHub and GitHub Copilot want to win in this competitive space. So, I'm excitedly sort of sitting back and just eating popcorn like that uh Michael Jackson

[04:14] meme [snorts] [laughter] and just enjoying the hell out of it. And uh like I said, I'm going to be doing a bunch of programming episodes including with Prime and he I think has a lovehate relationship with AI and with uh AI agents and with the role of AI in the programming experience and he's really at the forefront of people that are playing with all these languages with all these different applications with all the different use cases of code and he as a U of Mim user, so he's going to be skeptical in general of new technology. He's a kagon sitting on a porch on rocking chairs, screaming at the kids, throwing stuff at them. But at the same time, he's able to play with the kids as well. So I am more on the kids side with

[05:06] a childlike joy, enjoy the new technology. For me, basically everything I do programming wise has the possibility of AI either reviewing it or assisting it. It's constantly in the loop. Even if I'm writing stuff from scratch, I'm always just kind of one second away from asking a question about the code or asking it to generate or rewrite a certain line or to add a few more lines, all that kind of stuff. So, I'm constantly constantly using it. If you're learning to code or if you're an advanced programmer, it is really important that you get better and better at using AI as an assistant programmer. Get started with GitHub Copilot for free today at gh.io/copilot. This episode is also brought to you by

[05:57] Notion, a note takingaking and team collaboration tool that Mark Andre on this very episode sings a lot of praises to. I believe he sings, was it on mic or off mic? I don't remember. But anyway, he loves it. It's one of the tools, one of the companies, one of the ecosystems that integrate AI really effectively for team applications. When you have uh let's see, like docs and wikis and projects and all that kind of stuff. You can have the AI load all that in and answer questions based on that. You can connect a bunch of apps like you could connect Slack, you can connect Google Drive. I think in the context we were talking about something like notion for email for like Gmail. I don't know if Notion integrates email yet. I mean

[06:47] they're just like this machine that's constantly increasing the productivity of every aspect of your life. So I'm sure they're going to start integrating more and more apps. I use it for Slack and Google Drive, but I use it primarily at the individual level for note-taking and even at the individual level. Just incredible what Notion AI can do. Try it out for free when you go to notion.com/lex. That's all lowercase notion.com/ lex to try the power of notion AI today. This episode is also brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great looking online store. Very few people embody the uh the joy and the power of uh capitalism than Mark Andre. I believe Mark and Toby

[07:37] are friends. I was at a thing where Mark and Toby were both there and we were chatting and they were very friendly. So I think they're friends and I got to hang out with Toby and is again incredible person. I say it again and again. It's almost becoming funny that uh eventually we'll do a podcast. [snorts] [laughter] I don't know why we haven't done a podcast. There's a few people in my life where uh it's like like Jeffrey Hinton is one of those people. It's like we've agreed to do a podcast for so long and we've just been kind of lazy about it. [gasps] And uh Toby is the same. Anyway, he's the co of Shopify. I don't even know if he knows that Shopify sponsors this podcast. It doesn't matter. It goes

[08:23] without saying. It should be obvious to everybody that one doesn't affect the other. I am very fortunate to have way more sponsors than uh we can possibly fit. So, I can pick whoever the hell I want. And uh whatever guest I choose will never have anything to do with the companies that sponsor the podcast. There's no there's not even like a tinge of influence. In fact, if there's anything, it'll be the opposite direction. But I also try to avoid that, you know. Uh it's possible I talked to the CEO of GitHub, for example, on this podcast, and GitHub sponsors this podcast. It's possible I talked to the CEO of Shopify, Toby, and uh Shopify sponsors this podcast. One doesn't affect the other. And obviously, again,

[09:07] goes without saying, but let me say it. make it explicit that nobody can buy their way onto the podcast, whether through sponsorships or buying me dinner or whatever. I don't know. This this just it's impossible. And most likely, if that's attempted, it's going to backfire. So, I think people intuitively know not to attempt cuz it would really piss me off. Anyway, this is a uh detour. We're supposed to talk about Shopify. I have a Shopify store, luxury.com/store, that sells t-shirts, but you can sell uh more sophisticated stuff, make a lot of money, and participate in this beautiful machinery of capitalism. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at shopify.com/llex. That's all lowercase. Go to shopify.com/llex to take your

[09:58] business to the next level today. This episode is also brought to you by Element, my daily zero sugar and delicious electrolyte mix of which I consume very ridiculously large amounts. You know, salt used to be currency in the ancient world. How silly are humans or not silly? how sort of surprising the things we converge on as uh being the store of value. Just value in general. The kind of things we assign value to together. We just kind of all agree that this item, this material, this idea, this building is extremely valuable. And then we compete over that resource or that idea or that building and we fight and sometimes there is uh wars and sometimes there is complete destruction and the rise and fall of

[10:56] empires all over some resource. What a funny, strange little world. Mostly harmless as uh Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy summarizes humans. For some reason, instead of that book, I was going to say Catcher in the Rye. In my exhausted brain, the books kind of all morphed together. But Catcher and the Ry is a really damn good book. All the classics I return to often the simple books are just even like the first book I read in English trivial book trivial book called the giver it's like I return to it in its simplicity maybe it's um maybe has sentimental value maybe that's what it is but just the simplicity of words animal farm I've read I don't know how many times probably over 50 times I return to it over and over and over the

[11:50] simplicity the poetry of that simplicity. It's something that just resonates with my brain. Maybe it's a peculiar kind of brain. It is a peculiar kind of brain. And I have to thank you for being patient with this peculiar kind of brain. Get a sample pack for free with uh any purchase of whatever the thing I was talking about, which I think is element. Try it at drinklement.com/lex. This is a Lex Freedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here's Mark and

[12:46] All right, let's start with optimism. If you were to imagine the best possible one to two years, 2025, 26 for tech, for big tech and small tech, what would it be? What would it look like? Lay out your vision for the best possible scenario trajectory for America. >> The roaring 20s. >> The roaring 20s. >> The roaring 20s. I mean, look, a couple things. It is remarkable over the last several years with all of the issues, including, you know, every not just everything in politics, but also co and every other thing that's happened. It's really amazing. And the United States just kept growing. If you just look at economic growth charts, the US just kept growing. And very significantly, many other countries stopped growing. So

[13:23] Canada stopped growing, the UK has stopped growing, Germany has stopped growing. And you know, some of those countries may be actually going backwards at this point. And there's a very long [laughter] discussion to be had about what's wrong with those countries. And there's of course plenty of things that are wrong with our country. But um the US is just flatout primed for growth. Um and I think that's a consequence of many factors. um you know some of which were are lucky and some of which through hard work and so the lucky part is just you know number one you know we just have like incredible physical security by being our own continent um you know we have incredible natural resources right

[13:56] there's there's there's this running joke now that like whenever it looks like the US is going to run out of some like rare earth material you know some farmer in North Dakota like kicks over a hay bale and finds like a $2 trillion deposit >> right I mean we're just like blessed you know with with with geography and with natural resources um energy you know we can be energy independent anytime we want Um, this last administration decided they didn't want to be. They wanted to turn off American energy. This new administration has declared that they have a goal of turning it on in a dramatic way. There's no question we can be energy independent. We can be a giant net energy exporter. It's purely a

[14:27] question of choice. Um, and I think that the new administration is going to do that. Um, and so we and oh, and then I would say two other things. One is um, you know, we we are the beneficiaries and you know, you're an example of this. We're a beneficiary. we're the beneficiary of, you know, 50, 100, 200 years of like the basically most aggressive driven, smartest people in the world, most capable people, you know, moving to the US and raising their kids here. Um, and so we just have, you know, by far the most dynamic, you know, we're by far the most dynamic population, most aggressive um, you know, we're the most aggressive set of characters in certainly in in any western country and have been for a long

[14:58] time and certainly are today. Um, and then finally, I would just say look, we are overwhelmingly the advanced technology leader. um you know we we have our issues and we have a I would say particular issue with manufacturing which we could talk about but for you know anything in software anything in AI anything in um you know all these you know advanced biotech all these advanced areas of technology like we're we're by far the leader again in part because many of the best scientists and engineers in those fields you know you know come to the US um and so we we we just we have all of the preconditions for a uh for just a monster um boom you know I could see economic growth going way up I could see productivity growth

[15:32] going way up rate of technology adoption going way up and then we could we can do a global tour if you like, but like basically all of our competitors have like profound issues and you know we could kind of go through them one by one, but the the competitive landscape just is it's like it's it's remarkable how u how how much better positioned we are for growth. >> What about the humans themselves? Almost philosophical questions. You know, I travel across the world and there's something about the American spirit, the entrepreneurial spirit that's uniquely intense in America. I don't know what that is. Uh I I've talked to uh Saga who claims it might be the Scots-Irish blood that runs through uh the history of

[16:11] America. What is it? You at the heart of Silicon Valley. Is there something in the water? Why is there this entrepreneurial spirit? >> Yeah. So, is this a family show or am I allowed to swear >> you you can say whatever the [ __ ] you want? >> Okay. So, the TV the great TV show Succession. The show of course that which you were intended to root for exactly zero of the characters. Yes. The best line from Succession was in the final episode of the first season when the whole family's over in uh Logan Royy's ancestral homeland of Scotland and they're at this castle, you know, for some wedding and Logan is just like completely miserable after having to, you know, because he's been in New York for 50 years. He's totally miserable

[16:45] being back in in um in Scotland and he gets in some argument with somebody and he's like, "My" He says finally just says, "My god, I cannot wait to get out of here and go back to America where we can [ __ ] without condoms." [laughter] >> Uh was that a metaphor or Okay. [laughter] Exactly right. And and so no, but it's exactly the thing and everybody instantly knows what that like everybody watching that instantly starts laughing because you know what it means, which is it's exactly this. I think there's like an ethnographic, you know, way of it. There's a bunch of books on like all like you said the Scots-Irish like all the different derivations of all the different ethnic groups that have come

[17:14] to the US over the course of the last 400 years, right? But it's been and but what we have is this sort of amalgamation of like, you know, the you know the the Northeast, you know, Yankees who were like super tough and hardcore. Yeah. The Scots-Irish are super aggressive. you know, we've got the, you know, the Southerners and the Texans, uh, you know, and the and, you know, the sort of, you know, whole kind of blended, you know, kind of Anglo-Hispanic thing, you know, super incredibly tough, strong, driven, you know, capable characters, you know, the Texas Rangers. Um, you know, we've got the, yeah, we've got the California, you know, we've got the, you know, the wild, we've got the incredibly, you know,

[17:44] inventive hippies, but we also have the hardcore engineers, we've got, you know, the best, you know, rocket scientists in the world, we've got the best, you know, artists in the world, you know, creative professionals, uh, you know, the best movies. Um and so yeah there there there is you know the the the the you know say all of our problems I think are basically you know in my view to some extent you know attempts to basically sand all that off and make everything basically boring and mediocre. But there is something in the national spirit that basically keeps bouncing back and it and and basically what we discover over time is we we basically just need people to stand up at a certain point and say you

[18:15] know it's time to you it's time to build it's time to grow you know it's time to do things. Um, and so, and there's something in the American spirit that just like right back to life. And I and I've seen it before. I actually saw, you know, I I saw it as a kid here in the in the early 80s. Um, you know, because the the the 70s were like horribly depressing, right, in the in in the US. Like it was they were a nightmare on many fronts. And in a lot of ways, the last decade to me has felt a lot like the 70s, just being mired in misery. Um, and just this self-defeating, you know, negative attitude and everybody's upset about everything and, you know, and then by the way, like energy crisis and hostage crisis and foreign wars and just

[18:51] demoralization, right? Um, you know, the low point for in the 70s was, you know, Jimmy Carter who just passed away. He went on TV and he gave this speech known as the Malay speech and it was like the weakest possible trying to like rouse people back to a sense of like passion. completely failed and you know we had the you know the hostages in you know Iran for I think 440 days and every night on the nightly news it was you know lines around the block energy crisis depression inflation and then you know Reagan came in and you know Reagan was a very controversial character at the time and you know he came in and he's like yep nope it's morning in America and we're the shiny city on the hill and we're going to do it and he did

[19:25] it and we did it and the national spirit came roaring back and you know roared really hard for a full decade and I and I think that's exactly what I think you know we'll see but I think that's what could happen here >> and I just did a super long podcast on Milton Freriedman with Jennifer Burns who's this incredible professor at Stanford and he was part of the Reagan. So some there's a bunch of components to that. One of which is economic. >> Yes. >> And one of which maybe you can put a word on it of not to be romantic or anything but freedom uh individual freedom, economic freedom, political freedom and just in general individualism. >> Yeah, that's right. Yeah. And as you know this America has this incredible

[20:02] streak of individualism. You know individualism in America probably peaked I think between roughly call it the end of the civil war 1865 through to probably call it 1931 or something. Um you know and there was this like incredible rush. I mean that period you know we now know that period as the second industrial revolution and it's when the United States basically assumed global leadership and basically took took over technological and economic leadership from from England. Um and then you know that that led to you know ultimately then therefore being able to you know not only industrialize the world but also win World War II and then win the Cold War. Um and yeah you know there's a massive industrial you know

[20:34] massive individualistic streak. Um by the way you know Milton Fre Milton Friedman's old videos are all on YouTube. They are every bit as compelling and inspiring. Yeah. >> Um as they uh as they were then um you know he's this he's a singular figure and many of us you know have you know I never knew him but um he was at actually at Stanford for many years at the Hoover Institution but uh I never met him but I know a lot of people who worked with him and you know that you know he was he was a singular figure but his his all all of his lessons you know live on or fully available. Um, but I would also say it's not just individualism. And this is, you know, one of this is one of the big things that's like playing out in a lot

[21:06] of our culture and kind of political fights right now, which is, you know, basically this feeling, you know, certainly that I have and I share with a lot of people, which is it it's not enough for America to just be an economic zone. Um, and it's not enough for us to just be individuals and it's not enough to just have line go up and it's not enough to just have economic success. There are deeper questions uh at play and and and also, you know, there there there's more to a country uh than just that. and and you know quite quite frankly a lot of it is intangible. Um a lot of it is you know involves spirit um and passion and you know like I said we we have more of it than anybody else. Um but um you know we we

[21:40] have to choose to want it. The way I look at it is like all of our problems are self-inflicted. Like they're you know the client is a choice. You know all of our problems are basically demoralization campaigns. You know basically people telling us people in positions of authority telling us that we should you know we shouldn't you know stand out. We shouldn't be adventurous. We shouldn't be exciting. We shouldn't be exploratory. you know, we shouldn't, you know, this that and the other thing and we should feel bad about everything that we do. And I think we've lived through a decade where that's been the prevailing theme. And I I think quite honestly, as of November, I think people are done with it.

[22:10] >> If we could go on a tangent of a tangent, since we're talking about individualism, and that's not all that it takes. You've mentioned in the past the book The Ancient City. Yes. >> By if I could only pronounce the name, French historian Numa Deni Fustel Duno. I don't know. >> That was amazing. >> Okay. All right. From the 19th century. Anyway, you said this is an important book to understand who we are and where we come from. >> So, what that book does, it's actually quite a striking book. Um, so that book is written by this guy um as a [laughter] let let do the pronunciations, the foreign language pronunciations for the day. Um, he was a uh professor of classics um at uh the Serban in um in uh

[22:47] Paris, you know, the top university uh at um in the in the actually in the 1860s. though actually right around after the US civil war and he was a soant of a particular kind which is he and you can see this in the book is he had apparently read and you know sort of absorbed and memorized every possible scrap of Greek and and um Roman literature um and so it's like a walking like index on basically Greek and Roman everything we know about Greek and Roman culture and that's significant the reason this matters is because basically none of that has changed right and so he he he had access to the exact same written materials that we have we have access to and so there you know we we've learned nothing and then specifically

[23:19] what he did is he talked about the Greeks and the Romans But specifically what he did is he went back further. He reconstructed the people who came before the Greeks and the Romans and what their life and society was like. And these were the people who were now known as the as the Indo-Europeans. And these were, you may have heard of these, these are the people who came down from the steps. And so they they they came out of what's now like Eastern Europe, like around sort of the outskirts of what's now Russia. Um and then they sort of swept through uh Europe. They ultimately took over all of Europe. By the way, you know, almost many of the ethnicities in the Americas the hundreds of years that

[23:45] follow, you know, are indo-uropean. And so like you know they were this basically this warrior basically class that like came down and swept through and and um and and you know essentially um you know populated much of the world. Um and there's a whole interesting saga there. But what he does and then they basically they from there came basically what we know as the Greeks and the Romans were kind of evolutions off of that. Um and so what he reconstructs is sort of what life was like what life was like at least in the west for people in their kind of original social state. And the the significance of that is is the original social state is this is living in the state of the absolute imperative

[24:16] for survival with absolutely no technology, right? Like no modern systems, no nothing, right? You've got the clothes in your back, you've got your, you know, you you've got whatever you can build with your bare hands, right? This is, you know, predates basically all concepts of of of technologies as we understand it today. And so these are people under like maximum levels of physical survival pressure. And so what what social patterns did they evolve to be able to do that? And and the social pattern basically was as follows. um is a is a three-part social structure u family um uh tribe and city um and um zero concept of individual rights um and essentially no concept of individualism and so you

[24:51] were not an individual you were a member of your family and then a set of families would aggregate into a tribe and then a set of tribes would aggregate into a um into a city um and then the morality was completely it was actually what Nichi talks Nichi talks about the morality was entirely master morality not slave morality and so in their morality Anything that was strong was good and anything that was weak was bad. And it's very clear why that is, right? It's because strong equals good equals survive. Weak equals bad equals die. And that led to what became known later as the master slave dialectic, which is is it more important for you to live on your feet as a master even at the risk of dying? Or are you willing to um you

[25:26] know live as a slave on your knees in order to not die. And this is sort of the the derivation of that moral framework. Christianity later inverted that moral framework. But it you know the the original uh framework lasted for you know many many thousands of years. No concept of individualism. The head of the family had total life and death control over the over over the family. The head of the tribe, same thing. Head of the city, same thing. And then you were morally obligated to kill members of the of the other cities on on contact. Right. [laughter] Right. You were morally required to. Like if you didn't do it, you were a bad person. Um and then the form of the society was basically maximum fascism combined with

[25:57] maximum communism. Right. And so it was maximum fascism in the form of this like absolute top- down control where the head of the family, tribe or city could kill other members of the community at any time with no repercussions at all. So maximum hierarchy but combined with maximum communism which is no market economy and so everything gets shared, right? And and sort of the point of being in one of these collectives is that it's a collective and and and you know and and people are sharing. And of course that limited how big they could get cuz you know the problem with communism is it doesn't scale, right? It works at the level of a family. It's much harder to make it work at the level of a country. Impossible. Maximum

[26:31] fascism, maximum communism. And then and then it was all intricately uh tied into their religion. And their their religion was uh it was in two parts. It was uh veneration of ancestors um and it was veneration of nature. And the veneration of ancestors is extremely important because it was basically like basically the ancestors were the people who got you to where you were. The ancestors were the people who had everything to teach you, right? And then it was veneration of nature because of course nature is the thing that's trying to kill you. Um and then you had your ancestor every family, tribe or city had their ancestor gods and then they had their um they had their nature gods. Okay. So fast forward to today like we

[27:04] live in a world that is like radically different but in and the book takes you through kind of what happened from that through the Greeks and Romans through to Christianity. And so that but but it's very helpful to kind of think in these terms because the conventional view of the progress through time is that we are you know the cliche is the arc of the un moral universe you know bends towards justice right or so-called wig history which is you know that the arc of progress is positive right and so we we you know what you hear all the time which you're taught in school and everything is you know every year that goes by we get better and better and more and more moral and more and more pure and a better version of of

[27:34] ourselves our Indo-European ancestors would say oh no like you people have like fallen to [ __ ] like you people took took all of the principles of basically your civilization and you have diluted them down to the point where they barely even matter, you know, and you're having, you know, children out of wedlock and you're, you know, you regularly encounter people of other cities and you don't try to kill them and like how crazy is that? And and they would basically consider us to be living like an incredibly diluted version of this sort of highly religious, highly cult-like, right, highly organized, highly fascist fascist communist society. I can't resist noting [laughter] that as a consequence of basically going

[28:09] through all the transitions we've been through going all the way through Christianity coming out the other end of Christianity nature declares God is dead we're in a secular society you know that still has you know tinges of Christianity but you know largely prides itself on no longer being religious in that way um you know we being the sort of most fully evolved modern secular you know experts scientists and so forth have basically re-evolved or fallen back on the exact same religious structure uh that the Indo-Uropeans had specifically ancestor worship which is identity politics um and nature worship which is environmentalism. Um and so we have actually like worked our way all the way back to their cult religions without

[28:45] realizing it. And and and it just goes to show that like you know in some ways we have fallen far from the far from the family tree but in in some cases we're we're exactly the same. >> You kind of described this progressive idea of wokeism and so on as uh worshiping ancestors. >> Identity politics is worshiping ancestors, right? It's it's tagging newborn infants with either, you know, benefits or responsibilities or, you know, levels of condemnation based on who their ancestors were. >> The Indo-Uropeans would have recognized it on site. We somehow think it's like supercially progressive. >> Yeah. And it is not. >> I mean, I would say obviously not, you know, get get new, which is where I think you're headed, which is look, like

[29:23] is the idea that you can like completely reinvent society every generation and have no regard whatsoever for what came before you that that seems like a really bad idea, right? That's like the Cambodians with year zero under PP pot and you know death you know follows. It's obviously the Soviets tried that. Um you know the the you know the the utopian fantasists who think that they can just rip up everything that came before and create something new in the human condition and human society have a very bad history of of causing you know enormous destruction. So on the one hand it's like okay there there is like a deeply important role for tradition and and and the way I think about that is it's the process of evolutionary

[29:55] learning right which is what what tradition ought to be is the distilled wisdom of all and and you know this is how the new Europeans thought about it should be the distilled wisdom of everybody who came before you right all those important and powerful lessons learned um and that's that's why I think it's fascinating to go back and study how these people lived is because that's that's part of the history and you know part of the learning that got us to where we are today having said that there are many cultures around the world that are you mired in tradition to the point of not being able to progress. Um and in fact you might even say globally that's the default human condition which is you know a lot of people are in

[30:24] societies in which you know there's like absolute seniority by age you know kids are completely you know like in the US like for some reason we decided kids are in charge of everything right and like you know they're the trends setters and they're allowed to like set all the agendas and like set settle the politics and settle the culture and maybe that's a little bit crazy but like in a lot of other cultures kids have no voice at all no role at all because it's the old people who are in charge of everything you know they're gerontocracies and it's all a bunch of 80-year-olds running everything which by the Okay, we have a little bit of that too, right? Um, and so I what I would say is like there's a

[30:53] down there's there's a real downside. You know, full traditionalism is communitarianism, you know, it's ethnic particularism. Um, you know, it's ethnic chauvinism. It's um, you know, this incredible level of of resistance to change. Um, you know, that's I mean that it just doesn't get you anywhere. Like it it may be good and fine at the level of an individual tribe, but as a societ society living in the modern world, it you you can't evolve, you can't you can't advance, you can't participate in all the good things that you know that that have happened. And so I, you know, I think it probably this is one of those things where extremistness on either side is probably a bad idea. Um, and I but you know, but but this needs to be

[31:25] approached in a sophisticated and nuanced way. >> So the beautiful picture you painted of the roaring 20s, how can the Trump administration play a part in making that future happen? >> Yeah. So look, a big part of this is getting the government boot off the neck of the American economy, the American technology industry, the American people. Um, you know, and and again, this is a replay of what happened in the 60s and 70s, which is, you know, for what started out looking like, you know, I'm sure good and virtuous purposes, you know, we we ended up both then and now with this, you know, what I what I describe as sort of a form of soft authoritarianism. You know, the good news is it's not like a military

[32:00] dictatorship. It's not like, you know, you get thrown into Lubian, you know, for the most part. It's not coming at 4 in the morning. You're not getting dragged off to a cell. So, it's not hard authoritarianism, but it is soft authoritarianism. And so it's this you know incredible suppressive blanket of regulation rules you know this concept of a vetocracy right what's required to get anything done you know you need to get 40 people to sign off on anything any one of them can veto it is you know a lot of how our now political system works um and then you know just this general idea of you know progress is bad and technology is bad and capitalism is bad and building businesses is bad and success is bad um you know tall poppy

[32:36] syndrome you know basically anybody who sticks their head up you know deserves to get it you know chopped off. Anybody who's wrong about anything deserves to get condemned forever. You know, just this this very kind of, you know, grinding, you know, repression. And then coupled with specific government actions such as censorship regimes, right, and debanking, right? Um, and, you know, draconian, you know, deliberately kneecapping, you know, critical American industries. Um, and then, you know, congratulating yourselves in the back for doing it or, you know, having these horrible social policies like, let's let all the criminals out of jail and see what happens, right? Um, and so like [clears throat] we we've just been

[33:09] through this period, you know, I call it a demoralization campaign. Like we've just been through this period where, you know, whether it started that way or not, it ended up basically being this comprehensive message that says you're terrible and if you try to do anything, you're terrible and [ __ ] you. Um, and the Biden administration reached kind of the full pinnacle of that in in in our time. They they got really bad on on many fronts at the same time. Um, and so just like relieving that, um, and getting kind of back to a reasonably, you know, kind of optimistic, constructive, um, you know, progrowth frame of mind. Um, there's just there's so much pent-up energy and potentially in the American system that that alone

[33:42] is going to, I think, cause, you know, growth and and and and spirit to take off. And then there's a lot of things proactively that Yeah. And then there's a lot of things proactively that could be done. >> So, how do you relieve that? To what degree has the thing you describe ideologically permeated government and permeated big companies? >> Disclaimer at first, which is I don't want to predict anything on any of this stuff because I've learned the hard way that I can't predict politics or Washington at all. Um, but I would just say that the the plans and intentions are clear and the staffing supports it. Um, and all the conversations are consistent um, with the new administration and that they plan to

[34:15] take, you know, very rapid action on a lot of these fronts very quickly. They're going to do as much as they can through executive orders and then they're going to do legislation and and regulatory changes for the rest. And so they're they're going to move I think quickly on a whole bunch of stuff. You can already feel I think a shift in the national spirit or at least let's put it this way. I feel it for sure in in Silicon Valley like it it you mean we we you know we just saw a great example of this with what you know with what Mark Zuckerberg is doing. Um you know obviously I'm I'm involved with with his company but you know we we just saw kind of in public the scope of and speed of the changes you know are reflective of

[34:43] of sort of this of a lot of these shifts. But I would say that that same conversation, those same kinds of things are happening throughout the industry, right? And so the the the tech industry itself, whether people were proTrump or anti-Trump, like there's just like a giant vibe shift, mood shift that's like kicked in already. And then I was with a group of Hollywood people about two weeks ago, um, and they were still, you know, people who at least at least vocally were still very anti-Trump, but I said, you know, has anything changed since since November 6, and they they immediately said, oh, it's completely different. Um, it feels like the ISIS thaw um, you know, woke us over. um you know they said that all kinds of

[35:15] projects are going to be able to get made now that couldn't before that you know Hollywood's going to start making comedies again you know like it it they were just like it's it's like it's like a just like an incredible immediate uh environmental change and I'm as I talk to people kind of throughout you know certainly throughout the economy people who run businesses I I hear that all the time which is just this this last 10 years of misery is just over I mean the one that I'm watching that's really funny I mean Facebook's getting a lot met is getting a lot of attention but the other funny one is Black Rockck >> which I'm not which you know and I don't know him but I've watched for a long time. And so, you know, the Larry Fink,

[35:45] who's the CEO of BlackRock, was like first in as a major, you know, investment CEO on like every dumb social trend and rule set. Like every All right, I'm going for it. Every [ __ ] [laughter] every [ __ ] thing you can imagine. >> Yeah. >> Every ESG and every like every possible satellite companies with every aspect of just these crazed ideological positions. And you know, he was coming in, he literally was like had aggreg aggregated together trillions of dollars of of of of of shareholdings that he did not that were, you know, that were his his customers rights. And he, you know, seized their voting control of their shares and was using it to force all these companies to do all of this like

[36:23] crazy ideological stuff. And he he was like the typhoid Mary of all this stuff in corporate America. And if and he in the last year has been like backpedaling from that stuff like as fast as he possibly can. And I saw just an example last week he pulled out of the whatever the corporate net zero alliance you know he pulled out of the crazy energy energy energy stuff and so like you know he's backing away as fast as he can he's doing remember the Richard Prior backwards walk >> Richard Prior had this way where he could he could back out of a room while looking at like he was walking forward [laughter] um and so um you know even they're doing that um and just the whole thing I mean this I if you saw the court recently

[36:57] ruled that NASDAQ had these crazy board of directors composition rules One of the funniest moments of my life is when my friend Peter Teal and I were on the the the meta board and these NASDAQ rules came down mandated diversity on corporate boards. Um and so we sat around the table and had to figure out, you know, which of us counted as diverse and the um very professional attorneys at at Meta explained with a 100% complete um straight face that Peter Teal counts as diverse uh by virtue of being LGBT. >> And and this is a guy who literally wrote a book called The Diversity Myth. Yeah. >> Um and he literally looked like he swallowed a live goldfish. Um and and and this was imposed I mean this was like so incredibly offensive to

[37:35] him that like it just like it was just absolutely appalling and I felt terrible for him but the look on his face was very funny. Um, and it was imposed by NASDAQ, you know, your stock exchange imposing this stuff on you and then the court, whatever the court of appeals just nuked that, you know, so like the these things basically are being like ripped down one by one and and and what's on the other side of it is basically, you know, finally being able to get back to, you know, everything that, you know, everybody always wanted to do, which is like run their companies, have great products, have happy customers, you know, like succeed, like succeed, achieve, outperform, um, and, you know, work with the best and

[38:06] the brightest and not and not be made to feel bad about it. And I I think that's happening in many areas of American society. >> It's great to hear that Peter Teal is fundamentally a diversity hire. >> Well, so it was very, you know, there was a moment. So So Peter, you know, Peter, of course, um, you know, is is, uh, you know, is is publicly gay, has been for a long time, you know, but, you know, there are other men on the board, right? And, you know, we're sitting there and we're all looking at it and we're like, "All right, like, okay, LGBT." And we just we keep coming back to the B, right? Um, and it's like, [laughter] >> you know, it's like, >> all right, >> you know, I'm willing to do a lot for

[38:39] this company, but [laughter] >> it's all about sacrifice for diversity. >> Well, yeah. And then it's like, okay, like is there a test? >> Like, you know, [laughter] um, so, >> oh yeah, exactly. How do you prove it? >> The questions that [laughter] got asked, you know, >> what are you willing to do? >> Yeah. And I I become very good at asking um lawyers uh completely absurd questions with a totally straight face. >> And do they answer with a straight face? >> Some sometimes. >> Okay. >> I think in fairness they have trouble telling when I'm joking. >> So you mentioned the the Hollywood folks, maybe people in Silicon Valley and the vibe shift. Maybe you can speak to uh preference falsification. What do

[39:19] they actually believe? How many of them actually hate Trump? what like what percent of them are uh feeling this vibe shift and are interested in uh creating the roaring 20s in the way they've described. >> So first we should maybe talk population. So there's like all of Silicon Valley um and and the way to just measure that is just look at voting records, right? And and and what that shows consistently is Silicon Valley is just a you know at least historically my entire time there has been overwhelmingly majority just straight up Democrat. Um uh the other way to look at that is political donation records. And again, you know, the political donations in the valley, you know, range from 90 to 99%, you know, to one side. Um and

[39:57] so, you know, we'll we'll I just bring up because like we'll see what happens with the voting and with donations going forward. Um I we maybe talk about the fire later, but I can tell you there is a very big question of what's happening in Los Angeles right now. Um I don't want to get into the fire, but like it's catastrophic. And you know, there was already a rightward shift in the big cities in California. And I think a lot of people in LA are really thinking about things right now as they're trying to, you know, literally save their houses and save their families. Um, but, you know, even in San Francisco, there was a big, right, there's a big shift to the right in the voting um, in um, in 2014. So, we'll see where we'll see

[40:27] where that goes. But, you know, you observe that by just looking at looking at the numbers over time. Um, the part that I'm more focused on is, you know, and I don't know how to exactly describe this, but it's like the top thousand or the top 10,000 people, right? Um and um you know I don't have a list but like it's the you know it's all the top founders, top CEOs, top executives, top engineers, top VCs, you know and then kind of into the ranks um you know the people who kind of built and run the companies. Um and there there you know I don't have numbers but I have a much more tactile feel you know for for for what's happening. Um so I the big thing I I have now come to believe is that the idea that people

[41:03] have beliefs is mostly wrong. Um, I think that most people just go along. Um, and I think even most high status people just go along. And I think maybe the most high status people are the most prone to just go along because they're the most focused on status. Um, and the way I would describe that is, um, you know, one of the great forbidden philosophers of our time is the uni bomber, uh, Ted Kazinski. And amidst his madness, he had this extremely interesting articulation. you know, he was a he was a he was an insane lunatic murderer, but he was also, you know, at Harvard super genius. Um, not that those are in conflict. Um, [laughter] but >> shots fired, man. >> But, uh, he it was a very bright guy and

[41:44] he he did this whole thing um where he talked about basically he he was very right-wing and talked about leftism a lot. Um, and he had this great concept that's just stuck in my mind ever since I wrote it, which is he had this concept just called over social over socialization. Um and so you know most people are socializ most people are socialized like most people are you know we live in a society most people learn how to be part of a society they give some difference to the society. There's something about modern western elites where they're over socialized um and they're just like overly oriented towards what other people like themselves you know think um and believe. And you can get a real sense of

[42:18] that if you have a little bit of an outside perspective, which I just do I think as a consequence of where I grew up. Um, like even before I had the views that I have today, there was always just this weird thing where it's like, why does every dinner party have the exact same conversation? Why does everybody agree on every single issue? Why is that agreement precisely what was in the New York Times today? Um, why are these positions not the same as they were 5 years ago, [laughter] right? Uh, but why does everybody like snap into agreement every step of the way? And that was true when I came to Silicon Valley and it's just as true today, 30 years later. And so I I think most people are just literally take I

[42:54] think they're taking their cues from it's some combination of the press, the universities, the big foundations. So, it's like basically it's like the New York Times, a Harvard, the Ford Foundation, and you know, I don't know, um, you know, a few CEOs, um, and a few public figures and, you know, maybe, you know, maybe the president of your parties in power and like whatever that is, everybody just everybody who's sort of good and proper and elite in good standing and in charge of things and a sort of correct member of, you know, let's call it coastal American society, everybody just believes those things. And then, you know, the two interesting things about that is number one, there's no divergence among the the organs of

[43:27] power, right? So the Harvard and Yale believe the exact same thing. The New York Times, the Washington Post believe the exact same thing. The Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation believe the exact same thing. Google and you know whatever, you know, Microsoft believe the exact same thing. Um, but those things change over time, but there's never conflict in the moment, right? Um, and so, you know, the New York Times and the and the Washington Post agreed on exactly everything in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, despite the fact that the specifics changed radically. the the lock step was what mattered. Um, and so I I think basically we we in the Valley we're on the tail end of that and

[44:02] the same way Hollywood's on the tail end of that and the same way New York's on the tail end of that the same way the media is on the tail end of that. It's it's like some sort of collective hive mind thing. And I just go through that to say like I don't think most people in my orbit or you know let's say the top 10,000 people in the valley or the top 10,000 people in LA I don't think they're sitting there thinking basically I have rock I mean they probably think they have rock beliefs but they don't actually have like some inner core of rock beliefs and then they kind of watch reality change around them and try to figure out how to keep their beliefs like correct. I don't think that's what happens. I think what happens is they

[44:31] conform to the belief system around them and and I think most of the time they're not even aware that that they're basically part of a herd. Is it possible that the surface chatter of dinner parties underneath that there is a turmoil of ideas and thoughts and beliefs that's going on but you're just talking to people really close to you or in your own mind and the socialization happens at the dinner parties like uh when you go outside the inner circle of one two three four people who you really trust then you start to conform but inside there inside the mind there is an actual belief or a struggle attention with the New York Times or with the with uh for the listener there's a there's a slow smile that overtook Mark Andre's

[45:17] face. >> So look, I'll just tell you what I think which is at at at the dinner parties and at the conferences. No, there's none of that. Um it's what what there is is that all of the heretical conversations h anything that challenges the status quo um any heretical ideas and any new idea, you know, is a heretical idea. um any deviation if it's either discussed a one-on-one face to face. It's it's like a whisper network or it's like a real life social network. There's a secret handshake which is like okay you meet somebody and you like know each other a little bit but like not well and like you're both trying to figure out if you can like talk to the other person openly or whether you have to like be fully

[45:49] conformist. It's a joke. >> Oh yeah. Humor. >> Somebody cracks a joke, right? Somebody cracks a joke. >> If the other person laughs, the conversation is on. >> Yeah. Yeah. If the other person doesn't laugh, back slowly away from the scene. [laughter] I didn't mean anything by it, >> right? And by the way, it doesn't have to be like a super offensive joke. It just has to be a joke that's just up against the edge of one of the to use the Sam Bankman Freed term, one of the shivalas, you know, it has to be up against one of the things um of um you know, one of the things that you're absolutely required to believe to be the dinner parties. And then and then at that point, what happens is you have a

[46:22] peer-to-p peer network, right? You have you have you have you have a a one to one connection with somebody and then you you have your you have your your little conspiracy of of thought th thought criminality. Um and then you have your you probably been through this. You have your network of thought criminals and then they have their network of thought criminals and then you have this like delicate mating dance as to whether you should bring the thar criminals together. >> Mh. >> Right. Um >> and the dance the fundamental uh mechanism of the dance is humor. >> Yeah. It's humor like Right. Well, of course >> memes. Yeah. >> Well, for two for two reasons. Number one. Number one, humor is a way to have

[46:51] deniability, right? Humor is a way to discuss serious things without without without having deniability. Oh, I'm sorry. It was just a joke. Right? So, so that's part of it, which is one of the reasons why comedians can get away with saying things the rest of us can't is, you know, they can always fall back on, oh yeah, I was just going for the laugh. >> But but the other key thing about humor, right, is that is that laughter is involuntary, right? Like you either laugh or you don't. And and it's not like a conscious decision whether you're going to laugh. And everybody can tell when somebody's fake laughing, right? And this every professional comedian knows this, right? The laughter is the clue that you're on to something

[47:17] truthful. >> Like people don't laugh at like made up [ __ ] stories. They they laugh cuz like you're revealing something that they either have not been allowed to think about or have not been allowed to talk about, right? Or is off limits and all of a sudden it's like the ice breaks and it's like, "Oh yeah, that's the thing." And it's funny and like I laugh and then and then of course this is why of course live comedy is so powerful is because you're all doing that at the same time. So you start to have right the safety of you know the safety of numbers and so so the comedians have like the all it's no no surprise to me like for example Joe's been as successful as he has because they have they have this hack that the you know

[47:46] the rest of us who are not professional comedians don't have but but you have your inperson version of it. Yeah. Yeah. And then you got the question of whether the whether you can sort of join the networks together and then you've probably been to this is you know then at some point there's like a different there's like the alt dinner party uh the darker middle dinner party and you get six or eight people together and you join the networks and those are like the happiest mo at least in the last decade those are like the happiest moments of everybody's lives because they're just like everybody's just ecstatic because they're like I don't have to worry about getting yelled at and shamed >> like for every third sentence that comes

[48:13] out of my mouth and we can actually talk about real things. Um so so that's the live version of it and then the and then of course the other side of it is the you know the group chat the group chat phenomenon. Um right and then this and then basically the same thing played out you know until until Elon bought X and until Substack took off uh you know which were really the two big breakthroughs in free speech online. The same dynamic played out online which is you had absolute conformity on the social networks like literally enforced by the social networks themselves through censorship and and then also through cancellation campaigns and mobbing and shaming right and and but then you had but but then group chats

[48:43] grew up to be the equivalent of samos right >> anybody who grew up in the Soviet Union under you know communism no you know they had the hard version of this right it's like how do you know who you could talk to and then how do you distribute information and you know like you know again that was the hard authoritarian version of this and then we've been living through this weird mutant you know, soft authoritarian version, but with, you know, with some of the same patterns >> and WhatsApp allows you to scale it and make it more efficient to uh to build on these uh groups of heretical ideas bonded by humor. >> Yeah, exactly. Well, and this is the thing and well, this is kind of the running joke about group the running

[49:17] kind of thing about group chats. It's not even a joke. It's true. It's like it's like every group chat, if you've noticed this, like every this principle of group chats, every group chat ends up being about memes and humor. And the goal of the game, the game of the group chat is to get as close to the line of being actually objectionable. >> Yeah. >> As you can get without actually tripping it, right? And like literally every group chat that I have been in for the last decade, even if it starts some other direction, what ends up happening is it becomes that absolute comedy fest where but it's walking. They walk right up to the line and they're constantly testing and every once in a while somebody will trip the line and people

[49:48] will freak out and it's like, "Oh, too soon. Okay, you know, we got to wait till next year to talk about that." You know, they they walk it back and so it's that same thing. And yeah, and then group chats as a technological phenomenon. It was amazing to see cuz basically it was number one it was, you know, obviously the rise of smartphones. Then it was the rise of the of the the new messaging services. Um then it was the rise specifically of I would say combination of WhatsApp and Signal. And the reason for that is those were the two the two big systems that did the full encryption. Um so you actually had you actually felt safe and then the real breakthrough I think was disappearing messages uh which hit signal probably

[50:21] four or five years ago and hit WhatsApp three or four years ago. And then the combination of um the combination of encryption and um uh and disappearing messages I think really unleashed it. Well, then there's the fight then there's the fight over the the the length of the disappearing messages, >> right? And so it's like, you know, I often get behind on my my thing. So I I set to 7-day, you know, disinferior messages and my friends who, you know, are like, "No, that's way too much risk." >> Yeah. >> It's got to be a day. And then every once in a while, somebody will set it to five minutes before they send something like particularly inflammatory. >> Yeah. 100%. What what I mean one of the things that bothers me about WhatsApp

[50:53] the choice is between 24 hours and you know 7 days one day or seven days [laughter] and I I have to have an existential crisis about deciding >> Yes. Exactly. >> whether I can last for seven days with what I'm about to say. [laughter] >> Yeah. Exactly. Now of course what's happening right now is the big thaw, right? And so the vibe shift. So what's happening on the other on the other side of of the election is you know Elon on Twitter two years ago and now Mark with Facebook and Instagram and by the way with the continued growth of Substack and with other you know new platforms that are emerging you know like I I think it may be you know I don't know that everything just shifts back into public but like a tremendous amount of

[51:27] the uh a tremendous amount of the verboten um uh conversations you know can now shift back into into public view. Um, and I mean quite frankly, this is one of those things, you know, quite frankly, even if I was opposed to what those what people are saying, and I'm sure I am in some cases. Um, you know, I I would argue it's still like net better for society that those things happen in public instead of private. Um, you know, do do you really want like Yeah. Like don't you want to know? >> Yeah. >> Um, and and so and and then it's just look, it's just I think clearly much healthier to live in a society in which people are not literally scared of what they're saying. I mean to to push back and to come back to this idea that we're

[52:00] talking about I do believe that people have beliefs and thoughts that are heretical like a lot of people I wonder what fraction of people have that to me this is the preference falsification is really interesting what is the landscape of ideas that human civilization has in private >> as compared to what's out in public cuz like that the the the dynamical system that is the difference between those It's fascinating like there's throughout history the the fall of communism in multiple regimes throughout Europe is really interesting because everybody was following you know the line until not but you better for sure privately there was a huge number of boiling conversations happening where like this

[52:46] is this the bureaucracy of communism the corruption of communism all of that was really bothering people more and more and more and more and all of a sudden there's a trigger that allows the vibe shift to happen. So to me like the the interesting question here is what is the landscape of private thoughts and ideas and conversations that are happening under the surface of uh of of Americans especially my question is how much dormant energy is there for this roaring 20s where people are like no more [ __ ] let's get [ __ ] done. >> Yeah. So let's go through the we'll go through the theory of preference falsification just just >> by the way amazing the books on this is fascinating. >> Yeah. Yeah. So this is this is exactly

[53:27] this is one of the all-time great books. Incredibly it's about 20 30 year old book but it's very it's completely modern and current in what it talks about as well as very deeply historically informed. Um so it's called private truths public lies and it's written by assoc a social science professor named Timmer Kuran um at I think Duke um and it's it's definitive work on this and so he he has this concept he calls preference falsification and so preference falsification is two things preference falsification and you get it from the title of the book private truths public lies. So preference falsification is when you believe something and you can't say it or and this is very important. You don't believe something and you must

[54:03] say it, right? Um and and and and the commonality there is in both cases you're lying. You you you you believe you believe something internally and then and then you're lying about it in public. Um and so the the thing you know and and there's sort of two the two classic forms of it. There's the I you know, for example, there's the I believe communism is rotten but I can't say it version of it. Um but then there's also the the the famous parable of the the real life example but um the thing that Vaslav Haval talks about in the other good book on this topic which is the power of the powerless um you know who is an anti-communist resistance fighter who ultimately became the you know the the president chuckles after the fall of

[54:37] the wall but he wrote this book and he he describes the other side of this which is um workers of the world unite right and so he he describes what he calls the parable of the green ger which is your green ger in Prague in 1985 um And for the last 70 years it has been or 50 years it's been absolutely mandatory to have a sign in the window of your store that says workers of the world unite, right? Um and it's 1985. It is like crystal clear that the world the workers of the world are not going to unite. Like [laughter] like of all the things that could happen in the world, that is not going to happen. The commies have been at that for 70 years. It is not happening. But that slogan had better be in your window every morning

[55:13] because if it's not in your window every morning, you are not a good communist. The secret police are going to come by and they're going to they're going to get you. Um, and so the first thing you do when you get to the story is you put that slogan in the window and you make sure that it stays in the window all day long. And but he says the thing is every single person, the green grosser knows the slogan is fake. He knows it's a lie. Every single person walking past the slogan knows that it's a lie. Every single person walking past the store knows that the green grosser is only putting it up there because he has to lie in public. Um, and the green grosser has to go through the humiliation of knowing that everybody knows that he's

[55:42] caving into the system and lying in public. And so it it it turns into demoralization campaign. It it it it's it's not just ideological enforcement. In fact, it's not ideological enforcement anymore because everybody knows it's fake. The authorities know it's fake. Everybody knows it's fake. It's not that they're enforcing the actual ideology of the world's workers of the world uniting. It's that they are enforcing compliance, >> right? And compliance with the regime and [ __ ] you, you will comply, right? Uh and so so anyway, that that that's the other side of that. And and of course, we have lived in the last decade through a lot of both of those. Um, I think anybody listening to this could name a

[56:15] series of slogans that we've all been forced to chant for the last decade that everybody knows at this point are just like simply not true. I'll I'll let the audience, you know, speculate on those on their own group chats. Um, [laughter] >> send Mark your memes online as well, please. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. But, okay. So, anyway, so it's the two sides of that, right? So, it's it's it's it's private true public lies. Um so then what preference falsification does is it talks about extending that from the idea of the individual experiencing that to the idea of the entire society experiencing that right and this gets to your percentages question which is like okay what happens in a society in which

[56:47] people are forced to lie in public about what they truly believe. What happens number one is that individually they're lying in public and that's bad. But the other thing that happens is they no longer have an accurate gauge at all or any way to estimate how many people agree with them. And and and this is how you and again this this this literally is like how you get something like like the communist system which is like okay it it you you you end up in a situation in which 80 or 90 or 99% of a society can actually all be thinking individually I really don't buy this anymore and if anybody would just stand up and say it I would be willing to go along with it but I'm not going to be the first one to put my head on the

[57:16] chopping block. But you have no because of the suppression censorship you have no way of knowing how many other people agree with you. And if the people if the people agree with you are 10% of the population and you become part of a movement, you're going to get killed. If 90% of the people agree with you, you're going to win the revolution, right? And so the question of like what the percentage actually is is like a really critical question. And then and then basically in any sort of authoritarian system, you can you can't like run a survey, right, to get an accurate result. And so you actually can't know until you put it to the test. And then what he describes in the book is it's always put to the test in the same way.

[57:47] And this is exactly what's happened for the last two years. Like 100% of exactly what's happened. It's like straight out of this book, which is somebody Elon >> sticks his hand up [laughter] and says, "The workers of the world are not going to unite." >> Yeah. >> Right. Or the emperor is actually wearing no clothes. Right. You know that famous parable, right? Um so one person stands up and does it and and literally that person is standing there by themselves and everybody else in the audience is like, "Ooh, >> I wonder what's going to happen to that guy." >> Right? But again, nobody knows. Elon doesn't know. The first guy doesn't know. Other people don't know. Like which way is this going to go? And it

[58:19] may be that that's a minority position and that's a way to get yourself killed. Or it may be that that's the majority position and that and you are now the leader of a revolution. And then basically of course what happens is okay the first guy does that doesn't get killed. The second guy does well a lot of the time that guy does get killed but when the guy doesn't get killed then a second guy pops his head up says the same thing. All right now you've got two two leads to four leads to eight. Eight leads to 16. And then as we saw with the fall of the Berlin wall this is what happened in Russia and Eastern Europe in ' 89. you when it when it goes it can go right and then it rips and then what happens is very very quickly if it if it

[58:52] turns out that you had a large percentage of the population that actually believe the different thing it turns out all of a sudden everybody has this giant epiphany that says oh I'm actually part of the majority and at that point like you are on the freight train of revolution right like it is rolling right now the other part of this is the distinction between the role of the elites and the masses um and here and here the best book is called the true believer which is the the Eric Hoffer book um and so the the The nuance you have to put on this is the the the elites play a giant role in this because the the the elites do idea formation and communication, but the elites by definition are a small minority. And so

[59:25] there's also this giant role played by the masses. And the masses are not necessarily thinking these things through in the same intellectualized formal way that the elites are, but they are for sure experiencing these things in their daily lives and they for sure have at least very strong emotional views on them. And so when you when you really get the revolution, it's when you get the elites lined up with or or or or a new either the current elites change or the new set of elites, a new set of counter elites um basically come along and say no, there's actually a different better way to live and then the piece the people basically decide to follow the you know follow the counter elite. So that that that's the other dimension

[59:54] to it and of course that part is also happening right now. Um, and again, case study number one of that would be Elon and his, you know, it turns out, you know, truly massive following. >> And he has done that over and over in different industries, not just saying crazy [ __ ] online, but saying crazy [ __ ] in the in the realm of space, in the realm of autonomous driving, in the realm of AI, just over and over and over again. Turns out saying crazy [ __ ] is one of the ways to do a revolution and to actually make progress. >> Yeah. And it's like, well, but then there's the test. Is it crazy [ __ ] or is it the truth? >> Yeah. >> Right. and and and you know and this is where you know many there are many

[1:00:27] specific things about Elon's genius but one of the one of the really core ones is an absolute dedication to the truth um and so when Elon says something it sounds like crazy [ __ ] but in his mind it's true now is he always right no sometimes the rockets crash like you know sometimes he's wrong or he's human he's like anybody else he's not right all the time but at least my my throughine with him both in what he says in public and what he says in private which by the way are the exact same things he he does not do this he doesn't lie in public about what he believes in private or at least he doesn't do that anymore like he's he's 100% % consistent in my in my experience. By the way, there's two guys who are 100% consistent

[1:00:58] like that that I know. Um Elen and Trump. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> Whatever you think of them. >> Yeah. >> What they say in private is 100% identical to what they say in public. Like they are completely transparent. They're completely honest in that way, right? Which is like, and again, it's not like they're perfect people, but they're honest in that way. And and it makes them potentially both as they have been very powerful leaders of these movements because they're both willing to stand up and say the thing that if it's true, it turns out to be the thing in many cases that, you know, many or most or almost everyone else actually believes, but nobody was actually willing to say out loud. And so they can

[1:01:28] actually catalyze these shifts. And I I mean I think this framework is exactly why Trump took over the Republican party as I think Trump stood up there on stage with all these other kind of conventional Republicans and he started saying things out loud that it turned out the base really was they were either already believing or they were prone to believe. Um and he was the only one who was saying them. And so the ma again elite masses. He was elite. The voters of the ma masses and the the voters decided you know no more bushes like we're going this other direction. That's the mechanism of social change. Like what we just described is like the actual mechanism of social change. It is fascinating to me that we have been

[1:01:58] living through exactly this. We've been living through exa everything exactly what team describes everything that Vasav Havl described. We've been you know black squares on Instagram like the whole thing right all of it. Um uh and we've been living through the um you know the the true believer elites masses you know thing with you know with a set of like basically incredibly corrupt elites wondering why they don't have the loyalty to the masses anymore and a set of new elites that are running away with things and so like we're living through this like incredible applied case study um of these ideas and you know if there's a moral of the story it is you know I think fairly obvious which is it is a really bad idea for a society to

[1:02:31] wedge itself into a position in which most people don't believe the fundamental precepts of what they're told they have to do you know to be to be good people like that that is just not not a good state be in. >> So one of the ways to avoid that in the future maybe is to keep the delta between what's said in private and what's said in public small. >> Yeah. It's like well this is sort of the the siren song of censorship is we can keep people from saying things which means we can keep keep people from thinking things. >> Yeah. And you know by the way that may work for a while right like you know I mean again the hard form of the Soviet Union Soviet Union owning a mimograph prehoccopers there were mimograph

[1:03:04] machines that were used to make satan underground newspapers which is the the mechanism of comm written communication of of radical ideas heretical ideas um ownership of a meograph machine was punishable by death um right so that's the hard version right you know the soft version is somebody clicks a button in Washington and you are erased from the internet right like which you know good news you're still alive bad news is you know shame about not being able to get a job you know too bad your family now you know hates you and won't talk to you but you know what or whatever the you know whatever the version of cancellation has been um and so so so like does that work like maybe it works for a while like it

[1:03:38] worked for the Soviet Union for a while you know in its way especially when it was coupled with you know official state power but when it unwinds it can unwind with like incredible speed and ferocity because to your point there's all this bottled up energy now your question was like what are the percentages like what what's the breakdown down. And so my my rough guess just based on what I've seen in my world is it's something like 20 60 um it's like you've got 20% like true believers in whatever is you know the current thing you know you got 20% of people who are just like true believers of whatever they they're you know whatever's the like I said whatever's the New York Times Harvard professors

[1:04:12] and the Ford Foundation like just they just believe and by the way maybe it's 10 maybe it's five but let's say generously it's it's 20 so so you know 20% kind of full-on revolutionaries um Um, and then you've got, let's call it 20% on the other side that are like, "No, I'm not on board with this. This is this is crazy. I'm not I'm not signing up for this." But, you know, you know, they their view of themselves is they're in a small minority. And in fact, they start out in a small minority because what happens is the 60% go with the first 20%, not the second 20%. So, you've got this large middle of people. And it's not that there's anything like it's not that people in the middle are not smart or anything like that. it's

[1:04:44] that they just have like normal lives and they're just trying to get by and they're just trying to go to work each day and do a good job and be a good person and raise their kids and, you know, have a little bit of time to watch the game. Um, and they're just not engaged in the cut and thrust of, you know, political activism or any of this stuff is just not their thing. But then, but that's where the over socialization comes in. It's just like, okay, by default, the 60% will go along with the 20% of the radical revolutionaries, at least for a while. And then the counter elite is in this other 20%. And over time they build up a theory and network and ability to resist um and a new set of representatives and a new set of

[1:05:21] ideas. And then at some point there's a contest and then and then and then and then right and then the question is what happens in the middle? What happens in the 60%? And and it and it's kind of my point. It's not even really does the 60% change their beliefs as much as it's like okay what what is the thing that that 60% now decides to basically fall into step with. And I think that 60 in the valley that 60% for the last decade decided to be woke. Um and you know extremely I would say on edge on a lot of things and I you know that 60% is pivoting in real time. They're they're just done. They're they've just had it >> and I would love to see where that pivot goes because there's internal battles

[1:05:59] happening right now. Right. >> So this is the other thing. Okay. So there's two two forms of internal there's two forms of things and team has actually talked about this. Professor Kron has talked about this. So, so one is he said he said this is the kind of unwind where what you're going to have is you're now going to have people in the other direction. You're going to have people who claim that they supported Trump all along who actually didn't. [laughter] >> Right. >> Right. >> So, it's going to swing the other way. And by the way, Trump's not the only part of this, but you know, he's just a convenient shortorthhand for, you know, for a lot of this. Um, but you know, whatever it is, you'll you'll have

[1:06:25] people who will say, "Well, I never supported DEI, right? Or I never supported ESG or I never thought we should have canceled that person, right?" Where of course they were fullon a part of the mob like you know, kind of at that moment. And so anyway, so you'll have preference falsification happening in the other direction. And in his prediction, I think basically is you'll end up with the same quote problem on the on the other side. Now, will that happen here? I don't know. You know, how far is American society willing to go any of these things? I don't know. But like there is some some question there. Um and then and then the other part of it is okay, now you have this, you know, elite that is used to being in power for

[1:06:56] the last decade. And and by the way, many of those people are still in power and they're in very, you know, important positions. and the New York Times is still the New York Times and Harvard is still Harvard and like those people haven't changed like at all, right? Um and they, you know, they bureaucrats in the government and you know, senior Democratic, you know, politicians and so forth and and they're sitting there, you know, right now feeling like reality has just smacked them hard in the face because they lost the election so badly, but they're now going into a and specifically the Democratic party is going into a civil war, right? and and and and and that form of the civil war is completely predictable and it's

[1:07:27] exactly what's happening which is half of them are saying we need to go back to the center. We need to dradicalize because we've lost the people. We've lost that the people in the middle and so we need to go back to the middle in order to be able to get 50% plus one in an election. Right? And then the other half of them are saying no, we weren't true to our principles. We were too weak. We were too soft. You know, we must become more revolutionary. We must double down and we must, you know, celebrate, you know, murders in the street of health insurance executives. And that's and that that right now is like a real fight. If I could tell you a little personal story that breaks my heart a little bit. There's a there's a

[1:07:58] professor historian I won't say who who I admire deeply love his work. He's a kind of a heretical thinker and we were talking about having a podcast or doing a podcast and he eventually said that you know what at this time given your guest list I just don't want the headache of being in the faculty meetings in my particular institution and I asked who are the particular figures in this guest list. He said Trump and the second one he said that you announced your interest to talk to Vladimir Putin. So I just don't want the headache. Now I I fully believe he uh it would surprise a lot of people if I said who it is. But you know this is a person who's not bothered by the uh the guest list. And I should also say that

[1:08:51] 80 plus% of the guest list is leftwing. Okay. Uh, nevertheless, he just doesn't want the headache. And that speaks to the the thing that you've kind of mentioned that you just don't don't want the headache. You just want to just have a pleasant morning with some coffee and talk to your fellow professors. And I think a lot of people are feeling that in universities and in other contexts in tech companies. And I wonder if that shifts, how quickly that shifts. And there the percentages you mentioned 20 60 matters. and the and the the contents of the private groups matters and the dynamics of how that shifts matters because it's very possible nothing really changes in universities and in major tech companies. We're just there's

[1:09:36] a kind of um excitement right now for potential revolution and these new ideas, this new vibes to reverberate through these companies, universities, but it's possible the the the wall will hold. >> Yeah. So, he's a friend of yours. I respect that you don't want to name him. I also respect you don't want to beat on him. So, I would like to beat on him on your behalf. >> Um, does he have tenure? >> Yes. >> He should use it. >> So, this is the thing, right? This is the ultimate indictment of the corruption and the rot at the heart of our education system, uh, at the heart of these universities. And it's, by the way, it's like across the board. It's like all the all the top universities. It's like because the the siren song for

[1:10:18] right what it's been for 70 years whatever the tenure system peer reviewview system tenure system um which is like yeah you work your butt off as an academic to get a professorship and then to get tenure because then you can say what you actually think right then you can do your work and your research and your speaking and your teaching without fear of being fired right without fear of being canceled. um like academic freedom. I mean, think of the term academic freedom and then think of what these people have done to it. Like it's gone. Like that entire thing was fake and is completely rotten. And these people are completely completely giving up the entire moral foundation of the system that's been

[1:11:05] built for them, which by the way is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money. What's the what's the inkling of hope in this? Like what this particular person and others who hear this what can give them strength, inspiration and courage. >> Um that the population at large is going to realize the corruption in their industry and it's going to withdraw the funding. >> It's okay. So desperation. [laughter] >> No, no, no, no, no. Think about what happens next. Okay. So let's go let's go through it. So the the the universities the univers the universities are funded by four primary sources of federal funding. the the big one is the federal student loan program which is you know in the many trillions of dollars at this

[1:11:40] point and and only spiraling you know way faster than than inflation. Um that's number one. Number two is federal research funding which is also very large and you probably know that um um when a scientist at the university gets a research grant the university ras as much as 70% of the money uh for central uses. >> Yeah. >> Uh number three is tax exemption at the operating level which is based on the idea that these are nonprofit institutions as opposed to let's say political institutions. Um and then number four is tax exemptions at the endowment level. Um you know which is the financial buffer that these places have. Um hypothet anybody who's been close to a university budget will basically see that what

[1:12:17] would happen if you withdrew those sources of federal taxpayer money and then for the state schools the state money they they instantly go bankrupt and then you could rebuild. Then you could rebuild because the problem right now, you know, like the folks at University of Austin are like mounting a very valiant effort and I hope that they succeed and I'm I'm cheering for them. The problem is you're you're now inserting you suppose suppose you and I want to start a new university and we want to hire all the freethinking professors and we want to have the place that fixes all this practically speaking we can't do it because we can't get access to that money even the most direct reason we can't get access to

[1:12:48] that money uh we can't get access to federal student funding do you know how universities are accredited uh for the purpose of getting access to federal student funding federal student loans they're accredited by the government but not directly indirectly they're not accredited by the department of education instead what happens is the Department of Education accredits accreditation bureaus that are nonprofits that do the accreditation. Guess what the composition of the accreditation bureaus is? The existing universities. They are in complete control. The incumbents are in complete control as to who gets um as to who gets access to federal student loan money. Guess how enthusiastic they are about accrediting

[1:13:23] a new university. Right? And so we have a government-f funed and supported cartel um that has gone I mean it's just obvious now it's just gone like sideways in basically any possible way it could go sideways including I mean literally as you know students getting beaten up in the on campus for being you know of the wrong religion. I just they're just wrong in every possible way at this point. Um and and they're it's all in the federal taxpayer back. Um and there is no way I mean I my opinion there is no way to fix these things without without replacing them. Um and and there's no way to replace them without letting them fail. And by the way, it's like everything else in life. I mean, in a sense, this

[1:13:57] is like the most obvious conclusion of all time, which is what happens in in the business world when a company does a bad job is they go bankrupt and another another company takes its place, right? And that that's how you get progress. Um, and of course below that is what happens is this is the process of evolution, right? Why why does anything ever get better? Because things are tested and tried and then you you know the things that the things that are good survive. And so these places have cut themselves off. they've been allowed to cut themselves off from both from evolution at the institutional level and evolution at the individual level as shown by the the the the just widespread abuse of tenure. Um and so we we've just

[1:14:29] stalled out. We we built it we built an oified system an oified centralized corrupt system. We're surprised by the results. They are not fixable in their current form. >> I disagree with you on that. I have maybe it's grounded in hope that I believe you can revolutionize a system from within because I do believe Stanford and MIT are important. >> Oh, but that logic doesn't follow at all. That's underpants gnome logic. >> Underpants no gnome. Can you explain what that means? >> Underpants nose logic. So, I just started watching a key touchstone of American culture with my nine-year-old, which of course is South Park. >> Yes. >> And there is >> Wow. >> And there is a which by the way is a little aggressive for a nine-year-old.

[1:15:05] >> Very aggressive, >> but but he likes it. So, [laughter] he's learning all kinds of new words >> and all kinds of new ideas. But yeah, go. >> I told I told him I said, "You're going to hear words on here that you are not allowed to use." >> Right. >> Yes. And I said, "Do you know how we have an agreement that we never lie to mommy?" [laughter] >> I said, "Not using a word that you learn in here >> does not count as lying." >> Mhm. >> Wow. >> Keep and keep that in mind. >> Orwellian red redefinition of lying. But yes, go ahead. Of course, in the very opening episode, in the first in the first 30 seconds, one of the one of the kids calls the other kid a dildo, right? We're off to the races. >> Yep.

[1:15:39] >> Daddy, what's a dildo? >> Um, >> yep. [laughter] >> You know, sorry. Sorry, son. I don't know. >> Yeah. >> Um, so, um, uh, so famous episode of South Park, the underpants gnomes. And so the the underpants gnome. So there's there's there's this rat. All the kids basically realize that their underpants are going missing from their dresser drawers. Somebody's stealing the underpants. And it's just like, well, who on earth would steal the underp the underpants? And it turns out it's the underpants gnomes. >> And it turns out the underpants gnomes have come to town and they've got this little underground warrant of tunnels and storage places for all the underpants. And so they go out at night, they steal the underpants. And the kids

[1:16:13] discover that, you know, the underpants gnomes and they're, you know, what what are you doing? Like what what's what's the point of this? And so the underpants gnomes present their their master plan, which is a three-part plan, which is step one, uh, collect underpants. Step three, profit. >> Yeah. >> Step two, question mark. >> Yeah. So you just you just proposed the underpants gnome. >> Yeah. >> Which is very common in politics. So so the form of this in politics is we must do something. >> Yeah. >> This is something therefore we must do this. >> But there's no causal logic chain in there at all to expect that that's actually going to succeed >> because there's no reason to believe that it is.

[1:16:47] >> Yeah. It's the same thing. But this is what I hear all the time. And I'll I will let you talk as the host of the show in a moment. But [laughter] >> u but the but I hear this all the time. I hear this I have friends who are on these boards, right? um very involved in these places and I hear this all the time which is like oh these are very important we must fix them and so therefore they are fixable >> there's no logic chain there at all if there's that pressure that you described in terms of cutting funding then you have the leverage to fire a lot of the administration and have new leadership that steps up that that uh aligns with this vision that things really need to change at the heads of the universities

[1:17:27] and They put students and faculty primary fire a lot of the administration and realign and reinvigorate this idea of freedom of thought and intellectual freedom. I mean I don't because there is already a framework of of great institutions that's there and the way they talk about what it means to be a great institution is aligned with this very idea that you're talking about. It's this meaning like intellectual freedom the idea of tenure right the on the surface it's aligned underneath it's become corrupted >> if we say free speech and academic freedom often enough sooner or later these tenured professors will get brave >> well do you think that universities are fundamentally broken okay so how do you

[1:18:08] fix it how do you have institutions for educating 20-year-olds and institutions that host uh researchers that have the freedom to do epic [ __ ] like research type [ __ ] that's outside the scopes of R&D departments and inside companies. So, how do you create an institution like that? >> How do you create a good restaurant when the one down the street sucks, >> right? You uh invent something new. >> You open a new restaurant. >> Yeah. >> Like, how often in your life have you experienced a restaurant that's just absolutely horrible and it's poisoning all of its customers and the food tastes terrible and then three years later you go back and it's fantastic. >> Charlie Mer actually had the great the

[1:18:47] best comment on this. Great investor, Charlie Mer, the great comment he always once asked. He's like, you know, he's, you know, General Electric was going through all these challenges and he was asked at a Q&A. He said, "How would you fix the culture of General Electric?" And he said, "Fix the culture of General Electric?" He said, "I couldn't even fix the culture at a restaurant. [laughter and gasps] Like, it's insane. Like, obviously you can't do it." >> Nobody in business thinks you can do that. Like, it's impossible. Like, it's not. It's Now, now look, having said all that, I should also express this because I have a lot of friends who work at these places and and um and are involved in various attempts to fix these. I hope

[1:19:18] that I'm wrong. I would love to be wrong. I would love for the I would love for the underpants gnome step two to be something clear and straightforward >> that they can figure out how to do. I would love to love to fix it. I'd love to see them come back to their spoken principles. I I think that'd be great. I'd love to see the professors with tenure get bravery. Um I would love to see I mean it would be fantastic. Um you know my partner and I have done like a lot of public speaking on this topic. It's it's been intended to not just be harsh but also be like okay like these these challenges have to be confronted directly. By the way, let me also say something positive. you know, especially post October 7th, there are a bunch of

[1:19:49] very smart people who are major donors and board members of these institutions like Mark Rowan, you know, who are really coming in trying to, you know, I think legitimately trying trying to fix these places. I have a friend on the executive committee at one of the top technical universities. He's working overtime to try to do this. Man, I hope they can figure it out. Um, but I I but the counter question would just be like, do you see it actually happening at a single one of these places? I I'm a person that believes in leadership. If you have the right leadership, >> the whole system can be changed. >> So here's a question for your friend who has tenure at one of these places, which is who runs his university.

[1:20:23] >> I think you know, you know who I think runs it. >> Yeah. >> Whoever the [ __ ] says they run it. That's what great leadership is. Like a president has that power. President of university has the leverage because they can mouth off like Elon can. >> Can they fire the professors? >> They can fire them through being vocal publicly. Yes. Can they fire the professors? >> What are you talking about? Legally? No, they cannot fire the professors. >> Then we know who runs the university. >> The professors. >> Yeah, the professors. The professors and the students. The professors and the feral students. Then they're of course in a radicalization feedback cycle driving each other crazy. >> The feral students. Yeah, the feral

[1:20:54] students. Yeah, the feral students. What happens when you're put in charge of of your bureaucracy where the where the thing that the bureaucracy knows is that they can outlast you. >> The thing that the tenure professors at all these places know is it doesn't matter who the president is because they can outlast them. because they cannot get fired. And by the way, it's the same thing that bureaucrats in in the government know. It's the same thing that the bureaucrats in the Department of Education know. They know the exact same thing. They they can outlast you. It's I mean, it's the whole thing that it's the resistance. Like they can be the resistance. They can just sit there and resist, which is what they do.

[1:21:23] They're not fireable. >> That's definitely a crisis that needs to be solved. That's a huge problem. And I also don't like that I'm defending academia here. I I agree with you that the situation is dire and uh but I just think that institutions are important and I should also add context since you've been grilling me a little bit. You were using restaurants as an analogy and earlier offline in this conversation you said the Dairy Queen is a great restaurant. So let's let's say Dairy Queen is a great restaurant. Let the listener take >> I said Dairy Queen is the best restaurant. >> The best restaurant. There [laughter] you go. So everything that Mark Andrea is saying today that >> you should go order a blizzard. It's one

[1:21:58] one day you should walk down there and order a Blizzard. >> Yeah, >> they can get like 4,000 calories in a cup. >> They can. And they're delicious. >> Amazing. They are they are truly delicious. And they'll put they'll put anything in there you want. >> All right. >> Okay. So but anyway, let me just close by saying look I I my friends in university system I would just say look like I this is the challenge. Like I would just I would just pose this as the challenge. Like to me like this is having had a lot of these conversations like this is the bar in my view. This is the conversation that actually has to happen. this is the bar that actually has to be hit. These problems need to be confronted directly because I think

[1:22:26] there's just I think there's been way too much I mean I'm actually worried kind of on the other side there's too much happy talk in these conversations. Mhm. >> I think the taxpayers do not understand this level of crisis. And I think if the taxpayers come to understand it, I think the funding evaporates. And so I I think the the fuse is going through, you know, no fault of any of ours, but like the fuse is going and there's some window of time here uh to fix this and address it and justify the money because it just normal taxpayers sitting in normal towns in normal jobs are not going to tolerate [clears throat] this for for that much longer. >> You've mentioned censorship a few times. Let us if we can go deep into the

[1:23:00] darkness of the past and how censorship mechanism was used. So you are a good person to speak about the history of this because you were there uh on the ground floor in uh 2013ish Facebook. I I heard that uh you were there when they invented or maybe uh uh developed the term hate speech in the context of censorship of on social media. So uh take me to through that history if you can the use of uh censorship. >> So I was there on the ground floor in 1993. [laughter] >> There's multiple floors to this building apparently. >> There are. >> Yeah. >> So I got the first ask to implement censorship on the internet. um which was in the web browser. >> That is fascinating. >> Yeah. Yeah. 19 actually 1982. Uh I was

[1:23:49] asked to implement a nudity filter. >> Did you have the courage to speak up back then? >> I I did not have any problem speaking up back then. Um I was making $625 an hour. Um I did not have a lot to lose. Um no, I was asked at the time and and look, I you know, legitimate, you know, in some sense a legitimate request which is working on a on a research project actually funded by the federal government at a public university. So, you know, I don't think my boss was like in any way out of line, but it was like, yeah, like this this web browser thing is great, but like could it just make sure to not have any photos of naked people that show up, but if you think about this for a second as a technologist, I had an issue, which is

[1:24:21] this was like pre-imageet, right? And so, I had a brief period where I tried to imagine an algorithm um that I referred to as the breast detection algorithm um [laughter] that I was going to have to design. And then apparently a variety of other apparently body parts people are also sensitive about. >> Yeah. And um and then I I politely declined to do this >> for for just the the technical difficulties of it. >> Well, number one, I didn't I actually didn't know how to do it. But number two, I was just like, "No, I'm not I'm not building I'm just not building a censorship engine. Like I'm a you know, I'm just not doing it." Um and and in those days it was, you know, in those days the internet generally was, you

[1:24:51] know, free fire zone for everything. It was actually interesting sort of pre93 the internet was such a specific niche community like it was like the million kind of highest IQ nerds in the world. Um and so it actually like didn't really have a lot of you know issues. the people were like super interested in talking about like astrophysics and not very interested in you know even politics at that at that time so there really was not an issue there but um yeah I didn't I didn't want to start the process um so I think the way to think about this so first of all um you know yeah so I was involved in this at Facebook every step by the way I've been involved with this at Facebook every step of the way I joined the board there

[1:25:24] in 2007 so I saw I've seen everything in the last you know almost 20 years um every step of the way but also I've been involved in most of the other companies over time so I was an angel investor in Twitter knew them really well um we were the founding investor in subst stack. I'm part of the Elon takeover of Twitter with X. I was an angel at LinkedIn. So I I' I've been in these we were the founder of Pinterest. We were one of the one of the main investors there. Reddit um as well. And I was having these conversations with all these guys all the way through. So as much talk specifically about Facebook, but I can just tell you like the the general pattern and for quite a while it was kind of all the same across these

[1:25:55] companies. Um yeah. So, so basically the way to think about this that the the true kind of nuanced view of this is that there is practically speaking no internet service that can have zero censorship. Um, and and by the way that also mirrors there is no country that actually has un limited free speech either. The US first amendment actually has 12 or 13 formal carveouts from the Supreme Court over time. You know, so incitement to violence and terrorist recruitment and child abuse and so you know, child pornography and so forth are like they're not covered by the first amendment. Um, and just practically speaking, if you and I are going to start an internet company and have a service, we can't have that stuff

[1:26:30] either, right? Cuz it's illegal or it will just clearly, you know, destroy the whole thing. So, you you're always going to have a censorship engine. I mean, hopefully it's not actually in the browser, but like you're going to have it for sure at the level of an of an internet service. And but then what happens is now you have now you have a machine, right? Now, now you have a system where you can put in rules saying we allow this, we don't allow that. You have enforcement, you have consequences, right? Um and once that system is in place like it becomes the ring of power right which is like okay now anybody in that company or anybody associated with that company or anybody who wants to pressure that company will just start to

[1:27:05] say okay you should use that machine for more than just terrorist recruitment and child pornography you should use it for XYZ um and basically that transition happened call it 2012 2013 is is when there was this like very very kind of rapid pivot I think the kickoff to it for some reason was this it was the beginning of the second Obama term Um I think it also coincided with the sort of arrival of the first kind of super woke kids into these into these schools. Um you know that kind of you know it's the kids that were in school between like you know for the Iraq war and then the global financial crisis and like they came out like super radicalized. They came into these companies and they immediately started

[1:27:40] mounting these social crusades to ban and censor uh lots of things. And then you know quite frankly the Democratic party figured this out. Um and they figured out that these companies were you know very subject to being controlled and they and the you know the executive teams and boards of directors are almost all Democrats and you know there's tremendous circulation. A lot of Obama people from the first term actually came and worked in these companies and a lot of FBI people and other you know law enforcement intelligence people came in and worked and they're all dem you know all Democrats for that set. Um and so they just you know the the ring of power was lying on the table. it had been built

[1:28:11] and they, you know, picked it up and put it on and then they just ran. And the original discussions were basically always on two topics. It was hate speech and misinformation. Uh, hate speech was the original one. Um, and the hate speech conversation started exactly like you'd expect, which is we can't have the n-word. And which the answer is fair enough, let's not have the n-word. Okay, now we've set a precedent, right? And then the and then and Jordan Peterson has talked a lot lot about this. the definition of hate speech ended up being things that make people uncomfortable, right? So, we can't have things that make, you know, people uncomfortable. I of course, you know, people like me that

[1:28:44] are disagreeable raise their hands and say, "Well, that idea right there makes me uncomfortable, but of course that doesn't count as hate speech, right?" So, you know, the ring of power is on one hand and not not on the other hand. Um, and then basically that began this slide where it ended up being that, you know, completely anodine. His point Mark has been making recently like completely added comments that are completely legitimate on television or on the Senate floor. All of a sudden our hate speech and can't be said online. So that you know that the ring of power was wielded in grossly irresponsible ways. We could talk about all the stuff that happened there. And then the other one was misinformation and that wasn't as

[1:29:18] there was a little bit of that early on but of course that really kicked in with with Trump. Um so so the hate speech stuff the hate speech stuff predated Trump by like three or four years. Um the misinformation stuff was basically it was a little bit later and it was a consequence of the Russia gate hoax. Um and then that was you know a ring of power that was even more powerful right because you know hate speech it's like okay at some point if some if something offensive or not like at least you can have a question as to whether that's the case but the problem with misinformation is like is it the truth or not you know you know what do we know for 800 years or whatever western civilization it's

[1:29:52] that you know there's only a few entities that can determine the truth on every topic. you know, there's God, you know, there's the king. We don't have those anymore. And the rest of [clears throat] us are all imperfect and flawed. And so, the idea that any group of experts is going to sit around the table and decide on the truth is, you know, deeply anti-western and deeply authoritarian. And somehow the misinformation kind of crusade went from the Russia gate hoax into just full-blown we're going to use that weapon for whatever we want. And then and then of course then then the culminating moment on that that really was the straw that broke the camel's back was um we're going to censor all theories that the co virus might have

[1:30:25] been manufactured in a lab as misinformation and and and then and inside these companies like that was the point where people for the first time this is like what three years ago if for the first time they were like that was when it sunk in where it's just like okay this has spun completely out of control. So anyway, that that that's how we got to where we are. And then basically that spell lasted that that that complex existed and got expanded basically from call it 2013 to 2023. I think basically two things broke it. Um one is Substack and so and I'm super proud of those guys cuz they started from scratch and declared right up front that they were going to be a a free speech platform. Um and they came under

[1:31:05] intense pressure um including from the press. um and you know they tried to just beat them to the ground and kill them and intense pressure by the way from you know let's say certain of the platform companies um you know basically threatening them um and they stood up to it and you know sitting here today they have the widest spectrum of of speech and and and conversation you know anywhere on planet earth and they've done a great job and it's worked by the way it's great uh and then obviously Elon uh you know with X was the the you know the hammer blow um and then I the third one now was what Mark is doing at Facebook >> and there's also like singular moments I think you've spoken about this which uh

[1:31:39] like John Stewart going on Steven Coar and talking about the lab leak theory. >> Yes. >> I just there's certain moments that just kind of shake everybody up. The right person the right time just it's a wakeup call. >> So that there and I will tell you like and I should say John Stewart attacked me recently so I'm not that thrilled about him but I would say I was a longun fan of John Stewart. I watched probably every episode of the Daily Show when he was on it. um you know for probably 20 years but he did a very important public service and it was that appearance on the coar show and I don't know how broadly this is you know at the time it was in the news briefly but I don't know how if people remember this but I will

[1:32:16] tell you in in the rooms where people discuss what is misinformation and these policies that was a very big moment that was probably actually the key catalyzing moment and I think he exhibited I would say conspicuous bravery and had a big impact with that um and and yeah what what for people who don't recall what he did was and this was in the full-blown like you absolut you know you absolutely must lock down for 2 years you absolutely must keep all the schools closed. You absolutely must have everybody work from home. You absolutely must wear a mask. Like the whole thing. Um and one of those was you absolutely must believe that um co was completely natural. You must believe that and not believing that means you're a fascist

[1:32:50] Nazi Trump supporter mega evil QAnon person, right? And that was like uniform and that was enforced by the social media companies. Um and and and like I said that that was the peak and and and John Stewart went on the Cobar show and I don't know if they planned it or not cuz Coar looked shocked. I don't know how much of it was a bit, but he went on there and he he just had one of these like the emperor is wearing no clothes things where he said it's just not plausible that you had the co supervirus appear 300 yards down the street from the Wuhan Institute of [laughter] of Lethal Corona viruses. Um like it's just not plausible that that that certainly that you could just rule that out. And then there was another key

[1:33:24] moment actually the more serious version was I think the author Nicholson Baker wrote a big piece for New York magazine. Uh Nicholson Baker is like one of our great novelist writers um of our time and he wrote the piece and he did the complete undressing of it. Um and that was the first I think that was the first legit there had been like alt you know renegade there had been you know people running around saying this but getting censored all over the place. That was the first one that was like in the mainstream press where he and he talked to all the heretics and he just like laid the whole thing out and and that was a moment and I remember let's say a board meeting at one of these companies after that where basically you know

[1:33:54] everybody looked around the table and was like all right like I guess we're not we don't need to censor that anymore. And you know, and then of course what immediately follows from that is well wait a minute why were we censoring that in the first place? And okay like and then you know the downstream not that day but the downstream conversations were like okay if if if we made such a giant in retrospect if we all made such a giant collective mistake censoring that then what does that say about the rest of our regime and I think that was the thread in the sweater that started to unravel it. I should say it again. I do think that the John Stewart appearance and the statement he made was a courageous act. Y uh and I think we

[1:34:27] need to have more that of that in the world. And like you said, Elon, everything he did with X is is is a series of courageous acts. And I think what um Zuck, what Mark Zuckerberg did on Rogan a few days ago is a courageous act. >> Can you just speak to that? he has become, I think, an outstanding communicator, right? Um, and he's, you know, somebody who came in for a lot of criticism earlier in his career on that front. And I think he's, you know, he's one of these guys who can sit down and talk for three hours and and make complete sense. And and you know, as as you do with with all of all of your episodes, like when somebody sits and talks for three hours, like you really get a sense of somebody cuz it's it's

[1:35:08] really hard to to be artificial for that long. And, you know, he's he's not done that repeatedly. He's really good at it. And then look, I I again I would maybe put him in the third category now with um certainly after that appearance. Uh I would say um I would put him up there now with you know kind of Trump in the sense of the public and the the public and the private are now synchronized. I guess I'd say that like he he he said on that show what he really believes. He said all the same things that he says in private like I don't think there's really any any discrepancy anymore. Um I would say he has always taken upon himself a level of obligation responsibility to running a company the size of Meta and to running services

[1:35:41] that are that large. Um and I think you know his conception of what he's doing which I think is correct is he's running services that are bigger than any country, right? He's running you know over three billion people use those services. Um and so and then you know the company has you know many tens of thousands of of employees and many investors and it's a public company and he thinks very deeply and seriously about his responsibilities. Um, and so, you know, he has not felt like he has had, let's just say, the complete flexibility that Elon has had. Um, and, you know, people could argue that one way or the other, but, you know, he's he's, you know, yeah, he's he's, you know, he talked about a lot. He's he's

[1:36:13] evolved a lot. A lot of it was he learned a lot. And by the way, I'm going to put myself right back up there. Like, I'm not claiming any huge foresight or heroism on any of this. Like, I've also learned to learn a lot. Like, like I my views on things are very different than they were 10 years ago on lots of topics. And so, um, you know, I I've been on a learning journey. he's been on a learn learning journey. Um he is a really really good learner. Um he assimilates information, you know, as good as or better than anybody else I know. Um the other thing I guess I would just say is he talked on that show about something very important which is when you're in a role where you're running a company like that, there are a set of

[1:36:46] decisions that you get to make and and you deserve to be criticized for those decisions and so forth and it's valid. Um, but you are under tremendous external pressure um, as well. Uh, and and by the way, you're under tremendous internal pressure. You've got your employees coming at you. You've got your executives in some cases coming at you. You've got your board in some cases coming at you. Um, you've got your shareholders coming at you. So, you you've got your internal pressures, but you also have the press coming at you. You've got academia coming at you. You've got the entire nonprofit complex coming, activist complex coming at you. And then really critically, you know, he talked about in Rogan, um, and these

[1:37:21] companies all went through this in this last especially five years, you had the government coming at you. Um, and you know, that's the really, you know, stinky end of the pool. um where you know the government was in my view you know illegally exerting um you know just in flagrant violation of the first amendment and federal laws on on speech and coercion and uh and conspiracy uh forcing these companies to uh engage in activities um you know that again in some cases they may have wanted to do but in other cases they clearly didn't want to do and felt like they had to do and the level of pressure like I say like I've known every CEO at Twitter um they they've all had the exact same experience which when they

[1:37:55] were in the job it was just daily beatings like it's just getting punched in the face every single day constantly. And you know, Mark is very good at getting physically punched in the face, >> getting better and better. Yeah. >> And he is and and he you know, and he's very good at, you know, taking a punch and he has taken many many punches. So I would encourage people to have a level of sympathy for these are not kings. These these are people who operate with like I would say extraordinary levels of external pressure. I think if I had been in his job for the last decade, I would be a little puddle on the floor. Um, and so it it it says, I think, a lot about him that he has, you know, risen to this

[1:38:29] occasion the way that he has. And by the way, I should also say, you know, the the cynicism of course is immediately out. And, you know, it's a, you know, legitimate thing for people to say, but, you know, it's like, oh, you're only doing this because of Trump or, you know, whatever. And it's just like, no, like he has been thinking about and working on these things and trying to figure them out for a very long time. And so, I I think what you saw are legitimate, deeply held beliefs, not some, you know, you know, sort of just in the- moment thing that could change at any time. >> So, what do you think it's like to be him? and uh other leaders of companies to be you and withstand internal pressure and external pressure. What's

[1:39:02] that life like? Is it deeply lonely? >> That's a great question. So leaders are lonely to start with and and this is one of those things where almost nobody has sympathy, right? [laughter] Nobody feels sorry for a CEO, right? Like it's not a thing, right? Um and you know, and again legitimately so like CEOs get paid a lot like the whole thing. There's a lot of great things about it. So it's not like they should be out there asking for a lot of sympathy, but it is the case that they are human beings. Um, and it is the case that it is a lonely job. And the reason it's a lonely job, um, is because your words carry tremendous weight. Um, and you are dealing with extremely complicated issues and you're under a

[1:39:33] tremendous amount of emotional, you know, personal emotional stress. Um, and you know, you often end up not being able to sleep well and you end up not being able to like keep up an exercise routine and all those things. And you know, you come under family stress because you're working all the time or my partner Ben, you know, was he was CEO of our last company before we started the venture firm. He he said, you know, the problem he had like with with his family life was he would even when he was home at night, he wasn't home because he was in his head trying to solve all the business problems and so he was like supposed to be like having dinner with his kids and he was physically there but he wasn't mentally

[1:40:01] there. So, you know, you kind of get you get that a lot. But the key thing is like you can't talk to people, right? So, you can't I mean, you can talk to your spouse and your kids, but like they don't understand they're not working in your company. They don't understand they have the context to really help you. You if you talk to your executives, they all have agendas, right? And so they're all they're all and they can't resist. Like it's just human nature and and and so you you can't necessarily rely on what they say. It's very hard in most companies to talk to your board because they can fire you right now. Now Mark has the situation because he has control. It actually turns out he can talk to his board and Mark talks to us

[1:40:33] about many things that he doesn't that most CEOs won't talk to their boards about because we literally because we can't fire him. Um but the general a general including all the CEOs of Twitter that that none of them had control and so they they could all get fired. So, um, you can't talk to the board members. They're going to fire you. You can't talk to the shareholders cuz they they'll just like dump your stock, right? Like, okay, so who's the So, so, so every once in a while, what you find is basically the best case scenario they have is they can talk to other CEOs. Um, and there's these little organizations where they kind of pair up and do that. And so, they maybe get a little bit out of that, but but even

[1:41:02] that's fraught with peril because can you really talk about confidential information with another CEO? Insider trading risk. Um, and so it's just a very it's just a very lonely isolating thing to start with. Um and then you you and then on top of that you apply pressure. Um right and that's where it gets painful. And then maybe I'll just spend a moment on this internal external pressure thing. Um my general experience with companies is that they can withstand most forms of external pressure as long as they retain internal coherence. >> Right? So as long as the internal team um is really bonded together and supporting each other um most forms of external pressure you can withstand. And by that I mean investors dumped your

[1:41:42] stock, you lose your biggest customers, you know, whatever negative article, you know, negative headline and you know um you can you can withstand all that and basically in fact many of those forms of pressure can be bonding experiences for the team where they where they where they come out stronger. Um what you 100% cannot withstand is the internal crack. And what I always look for in high pressure corporate situations now is the moment when the internal team cracks because I know the minute that happens, we're in a different regime. Like it's like the, you know, the solid is turned into a liquid. Like we're in a different regime and like the whole thing can unravel in the next week cuz then people

[1:42:18] turn I mean this I guess this is what's happening in Los Angeles right now. The the the the mayor and and the fire chief turned on each other and that's it. That government is dysfunctional. It is never going to get put back together again. It is over. it is not going to work ever again. And that's what happens inside companies. Um and so so so somebody like Mark is under like profound internal pressure and external pressure at the same time. Now he's been very good at maintaining the coherence of his executive team, but he has had over the years a lot of activist employees um as a lot of these companies have had and so that's been continuous pressure. And then the final thing I'd say is I said

[1:42:53] that companies can withstand most forms of external pressure but not all. And the special although not all one is government pressure. um is that when your government comes for you like yeah any CEO who thinks that they're bigger than their government um has that notion beaten out of them in short order. >> Can you just linger on that cuz it it is uh maybe educating and deeply disturbing. You've spoken about it before but worth speaking about again this government pressure. So you think they've crossed the line into essentially criminal levels of pressure? >> Flagrant criminality felonies like obvious felonies and I can I can actually cite the laws but yes absolute criminality. >> Can you explain how those possible to

[1:43:39] happen and maybe on a hopeful note how we can avoid that happening again? So I should start with is a lot of this now is in the public record. Um which is good because it needs to be in the public record. And so there's there's three forms of things that are in the public record that people can look at. So one is the Twitter files. Um right which Elon put out with the set of journalists when he took over. And I will just tell you the Twitter files are 100% representative of what I've seen at every other one of these companies. And so you can just see what happened in Twitter and you can just assume that that happened in in these other companies. Um you know for the most part certainly in terms of the kind of

[1:44:10] pressure that they got. So that's that's number one. And that stuff's you can just read it and you should if you haven't. Um the second is um Mark referenced this in the Rogan podcast. There's a congressman Jim Jordan who has a committee congressional committee called the weaponization committee and they in the last you know whatever three years have uh done a full-scale investigation of this and Facebook produced a lot of documents into that investigation and those have many of those have now been made public and you can download those reports and there's like like 2,000 pages worth of material on that and that's essentially the Facebook version of the Twitter files just arrived at with a different

[1:44:41] mechanism. Um and then third is Mark himself talking about this on on on Rogan. So I'll, you know, just defer to his comments there. But yeah, basically what what those three forms of information show you is basically the government, you know, over time, um, and then culminating in 2020, 2021, you know, in the last four years just decided that the First Amendment didn't apply to them. Um, and they just decided that, um, federal laws around free speech and around conspiracies to take away the rights of citizens just don't apply. Um, and they just decided that they can just arbitrarily pressure um, uh, just like literally arbitrarily call up companies and threaten and bully um, and yell and scream and and you know,

[1:45:18] threaten repercussions and force people to force them to censor. Um, and you know, there's this whole thing of like, well, the First Amendment only applies to, you know, the government. It doesn't apply to companies. It's like, well, there's actually a little bit of nuance to that. First of all, it definitely applies to the government. [laughter] Like 100% the first amendment applies to the government. By the way, so does the fourth amendment and the fifth amendment, including the right to due process, also applies to the government. There was no due process at all to any of the censorship regime that was put in place. There was no due process put in place, by the way, for debanking either. Those are just as serious violations as

[1:45:50] the as the free speech violations. And so this is just like flagrant flagrant unconstitutional behavior. And then there are specific federal statutes. Um there's it's 18241 and 18242. And one of them applies to federal employees, government employees. And the other one uh applies to private actors um around what's called deprivation of rights um and conspiracy to deprive rights. And it is not legal according to the United States criminal code for government employees or in a conspiracy private entities to take away constitutional rights. And interestingly, some of those constitutional rights are enumerated, for example, in the first amendment, freedom of speech. And then some of those rights actually do not need to be

[1:46:26] enumerated. It is if the government takes away rights that you have, they don't need to be specifically enumerated rights in the constitution in order to still be a felony. The constitution does not very specifically does not say you only have the rights that it gives you. It says you have all the rights that have not been previously defined as being taken away from you, right? And so debanking qualifies as a right, you know, right to access to the financial system is every bit something that's subject to these laws as as as free speech. Um, and so yeah, that this has happened. And then I'll just add one final thing, which is we've talked about two parties. So far talked about the government employees um

[1:46:59] and then we've talked about the companies. The government employees for sure have misbehaved. Um the companies there's a very interesting question there as to whether they are victims or perpetrators or both. um you know they will defend and they will argue and I believe they have a good case that they are victims not perpetrators right they are the downstream subjects of pressure not the co you know not the cause of pressure but there's a big swath of people who are in the middle and specifically the ones that are funded by the government that I think are in possibly pretty big trouble and that's all of these third party um censorship bureaus um I mean the one that sort of is most obvious is the so-called

[1:47:33] Stanford Internet Observatory um that got booted up there over the last several years and they basically were funded by the federal government to be third-party censorship operations and they're private sector actors but acting with federal funding and so it puts them in this very interesting spot where there there could be you know the very obvious theory under which they're basically acting as agents of the government um and so I think they're also very exposed on this and have behaved in just flagrantly illegal ways >> so fundamentally government should not do any kind of pressure even soft pressure on companies to censor can't not allow >> it really is disturbing. I mean, it probably started soft,

[1:48:15] lightly, slowly, and then it escalates >> as the the old will to power will instruct them to do >> cuz you get you get I mean, yeah. I mean, that's why that's why there's protection cuz you can't put a check on power for government, right? >> There are so many ways that they can get you. Like there are so many ways they can come at you and get you. And you know the the thing here to think about is a lot of times when people think about government action they think about legislation right because you so when I was a kid we got trained how does government work there was this famous animated short the thing we got shown was just a cartoon of how a bill becomes a law and it's like this you know fancy

[1:48:51] little bill snaked along and goes this >> I'm just a bill. >> Yeah >> exactly like it's like all right number one that's not how it works at all like that that doesn't actually happen. We could talk about that but but but even beyond that mostly what we're dealing with is not legislation. When we talk about government power these days mostly it's not legislation. Mostly it's either regulation which is basically the equivalent of legislation but having not gone through the legislative process which is a very big open legal issue and one of the things that the DOA is very focused on. Most most government rules are not legislated they're regulated. Um and that that and there's tons and tons of regulations that these companies are

[1:49:22] sub this is another cliche you'll hear a lot which is oh private companies can do whatever they want. It's like oh no they can't. they're subject to tens of thousands of regulations that they have to comply with. Um, and the the hammer that comes down when you don't comply with regulations is profound. Like they can completely wreck your company with no abil no ability for you to do anything about it. So so so regulation is a big part of the way the power gets exercised. And then there's what's called just flatout administrative power is the term that you'll hear. Administrative power is just literally the government telling you calling you and telling you what to do. Here's an example how this works. So Facebook had

[1:49:51] this whole program a few years back to do a global cryptocurrency for payments called Libra. you know, and they they built the entire system and it was this high-scale, you know, sort of new cryptocurrency and they were going to build in every product and there were going to be three billion people who could transact with Libra and they went to the government and they went to the all these different try to figure out how to make it so it's like fully compliant with anti-moneyaundering and all these, you know, controls and everything and they had the whole thing ready to go. two senators wrote letters to the big banks um saying we're not telling you that you can't work with Facebook on this. But if you do, you

[1:50:20] should know that every aspect of your business is going to come under greatly increased level of regulatory scrutiny, which is of course the exact equivalent of it sure is a nice corner restaurant you have here. It would be a shame if you know somebody tossed a Molotov cocktail through the window and burned it down tonight, right? And so that letter like what is that letter? Like it's not a law. It's not even a regulation. is just like straight direct state power and and then and then it culminates in literally calls from the White House where they're just like flat out telling you what to do, which is of course what a king gets to do, but not what a president gets to do. Um and and so anyway, so this B so so what these

[1:50:54] companies experienced was they experienced the full paniply of this, but it was it was the level of intensity was in that order. It was actually legislation was the least important part. Regulation was more important. Administrative power was more important. And then just like flatout demands and flatout threats were ultimately the most important. How do you fix it? Well, first of all, like you have to elect people who don't do it. So like as with all these things, ultimately the fault lies with the voters. Um and so, you know, you have to decide you don't want to live in that regime. I have no idea what part of this recent election mapped to the censorship regime. I do know a lot of people on the right got very

[1:51:26] angry about the censorship, but I, you know, I think it probably at least helped with enthusiasm on that side. Um, you know, maybe some people on the left will now not want their, you know, Democratic nominees to be sore proensorship. Um, so the the voters definitely, you know, get a vote. Um, number one. Number two, I think you need transparency. You need to know what happened. We know some of what happened. Um, Peter Teal has written in the FT just now saying we just need like broad after what we've been through in the last decade. We need broad-based truth and reconciliation, uh, you know, efforts to really get to the root of things. Um, so maybe that's part of it. We need investigations for sure.

[1:52:01] Ultimately, we need prosecutions. Like we we need ultimately we need people to go to jail. Um, because we need to set object lessons that say that you don't get to do this. And and on those last two, I would say that that those are both up to the new administration. And I don't want to speak for them and I I don't want to predict what they're going to do, but they have they for sure have the ability to do both of those things. And, you know, we'll we'll see where they take it. >> Yeah. Yeah, it's truly disturbing. I don't think anybody wants this kind of overreach of power for government, including perhaps people that were participating it. It's like this dark momentum of power that you just get

[1:52:33] caught up in it. And that's the reason there's that kind of protection. Nobody wants that. >> So, I use the metaphor of the ring of power. And for people who don't catch the reference, that's Lord Lord of the Rings. And the thing with the ring of power in Lord of the Rings, it's the ring the Gollum has in the beginning and it turns you invisible. And it turns out it like unlocks all this like fearsome power. is the most powerful thing in the world is the key to everything. And basically the the the moral lesson of Lord of the Rings, which was, you know, written by a guy who thought very deeply about these things, is yeah, the ring of power is inherently corrupting. The characters at one point they're like,

[1:53:01] Gandalf, just put on the ring and like fix this, right? And he's like he like he will not put the ring on even to like end the war um because he knows that it will corrupt him. And then you know the charact as it starts the character of Gollum is the result of you know like a normal character who ultimately becomes you know this incredibly corrupt and deranged version of himself. And so I mean I think you I think you said something actually quite profound there which is the ring of power is infinitely tempting. You know the censorship [clears throat] machine is infinitely tempting if you if you have it like you are going to use it. It's overwhelmingly tempting because it's so powerful and that it will corrupt you. And yeah I I

[1:53:37] don't know whether any of these people feel any of this today. they should. I don't know if they do. Um, but yeah, you go out five or 10 years later, you know, you would hope that you would realize that your soul has been corroded and you probably started out thinking that you were a patriot and you were trying to defend democracy and you ended up being, you know, extremely authoritarian and anti-democratic and anti-western. >> Can I ask you a a tough question here? Staying on the ring of power, Elon is quickly becoming the most powerful human on Earth. Uh, >> I'm not sure about that. >> You don't you don't think he is? >> Well, he doesn't have the nukes. So, >> nukes. [laughter] >> Yeah, there's different definitions and

[1:54:20] perspectives on power, right? >> How can he and or Donald Trump uh avoid the corrupting aspects of this power? >> I mean, I think the danger is there with power. It's just it's flat out there. I I would say with Elon, I mean, we, you know, we'll see. I would say with Elon and I would say by the way overwhelmingly I would say so far so good. I'm extremely extremely thrilled by what he's done on almost every front um for like you know the last 30 years but including all this stuff recently like I think he's he's been a real hero on a lot of topics where we needed to see heroism but look I I would say I guess the sort of case that he has this level of power is some combination of the money and the the pro and the

[1:54:55] proximity to the president. Um and obviously both of those are you know are instruments of power. The counter-argument to that is I do think a lot of how Elon is causing change in the world right now. I mean there's there's the companies he's running directly where I think he's doing very well and we're investors in multiple of them and doing very well. Um uh but I think like a lot of the stuff that gets people mad at him is like it's the social and political stuff and it's you know it's his statements and then it's the down downstream effects of his statements. So, like for example, it's, you know, for the last couple weeks, it's been him, you know, kind of weighing in on this rape gang scandal, you know, this

[1:55:27] rape organized child rape thing in the UK. Um, and, you know, it's it's, you know, it's it's actually it's a preference cascade. It's one of these things where people knew there was a problem. They weren't willing to talk about it. It kind of got suppressed. Um, and then, um, Elon brought it up and then all of a sudden there's now in the UK this like massive explosion of basically open conversation about it for the first time. And you know, it's like this catalyzing all of a sudden everybody's kind of woken up and being like, "Oh my god, you know, this is really bad." And and and there will be now, you know, I'm pretty sure pretty pretty clearly big changes as a result. So, and Elon was, you know, he played

[1:55:57] the role of the boy who said the emperor has no clothes, right? But but but here's the thing. Here's my point. Like he said it about something that was true, right? And so had he said it about something that was false, you know, he would get no credit for it. He wouldn't deserve any credit for it. But he said something that was true. And by the way, everybody over there instantly they were like, "Oh yeah, he's right." right? Like nobody like nobody seriously said they're just arguing the details now. So so number one it's like okay he says true things and so it's like okay how far put it this way like how worried are we about somebody becoming corrupt by virtue of their power being that they get to speak the truth. And I guess I

[1:56:32] would say especially in the last decade of what we've been through where everybody's been lying all the time about everything I'd say I think we should run this experiment as hard as we can to get people to tell the truth. And so uh I don't feel that bad about that. And then the money side, you know, this rapidly gets into the money and politics question. And the money and politics question is this very interesting question because um it seems like there's a clear-cut case that the more money and politics, the worse things are and the more corrupted the system is. Um that was a very popular topic of public conversation up until 2016 um when Hillary outspent Trump 3 to1 and lost. You'll notice that money and politics

[1:57:06] has all almost vanished as a topic um in the last eight years and and once again Trump spent far you know Kamla raised and spent 1.5 billion on top of what Biden had spent. So they were they were at I don't know something like three three billion total and Trump I think spent again like a third or a fourth of that. Um and so the money and politics kind of topic has kind of vanished from the popular conversation the last eight years. it has come back a little bit now that Elon is spending, >> you know, but but again, like it's like, okay, he's spending, but the data would seem to indicate in the last at least the last eight years that money doesn't win the political battles. It's actually like the voters actually have a voice

[1:57:42] and they actually exercise it and they don't just listen to ads. And so again, there I would say like, yeah, clearly there's some power there, but I don't know if it's like I don't know if it's some like I don't know if it's some weapon that he can just like turn on and and use in a definitive way. And I don't know if there's parallels there, but I could also say just on a human level, he has a good heart and I interact with a lot of powerful people and that's not always the case. So that's a good thing there. If we if we can draw parallels to the Hobbit or whatever, [laughter] who gets to put on the ring? >> Froto. >> Froto. Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean, maybe one of the lessons of Lord of the Rings, right, is even

[1:58:16] even Froto would have been, you know, even Froto would have been corrupted, right? But, you know, nevertheless, >> you had somebody who could do what it took at the at the time. The the thing that I find just so amazing about the Elon phenomenon and all the critiques is um you know the one thing that everybody in our societies universally agrees on because of our sort of our our postChristian egalitarian. So you know we live in sort of this post secularized Christian context in the west now and it's you we you know we we consider Christianity kind of you know backwards but we still believe essentially all the same things. We just dress them up in in in sort of fake science. Um um so the the one thing that we're all told we're

[1:58:51] all taught from from early is that the best people in the world are the people who care about all of humanity right u and we venerate you know all of our figures are people who care about all of you know Jesus cared about all of humanity Gandhi cared about all of humanity Martin Luther King cared about all of humanity like this univer the person who cares the most about everybody and and with Elon you have a guy who literally like is he's lit and he he talks about this constantly and he talks about exactly the same in private he's literally he is operating on behalf of all of humanity to try to get us to, you know, he goes through to get us to be multilanetary civilization so that we can survive a strike at any one planet

[1:59:22] so that we can extend the light of human consciousness into the world and, you know, into the universe and have it persist, you know, and the good of the whole thing. And like literally the critique is, yeah, we want you to care about all of humanity, but not like that. [laughter] >> Yeah. All the critics, all the all the surface turmoil, all of the critics will be forgotten. >> Yeah, I think that's Yeah, that's clear. You said that uh we always end up being ruled by the elites of some kind. Can you explain this law, this idea? >> So, this comes from a Italian political philosopher from about 100 years ago named Robert I'm going to mangle the let you pronounce the Italian uh Michelle's um or Michael's. Um and then it was I

[2:00:03] learned about it through a a famous book on on politics. probably the best book on politics written in the 20th century called the Machavelians by this guy James Bernham um who has had a big impact on me but um in the Machavelians he resurrects what he calls this the sort of Italian realist school of of political philosophy from the from the tens and 20s um and these were people to be clear this was not like a Mousolini thing these were people who were trying to understand the actual mechanics of how politics actually works so to get to the actual sort of mechanical substance of like how the political machine operates and um this guy Michelle's had this concept ended up with called the iron law of oligarchy. Um, and so what

[2:00:39] the iron law of oligarchy and let me take a step back to say what he meant by oligarchy because it has multiple meanings. So basically in classic political theory there's basically three forms of government at core. There's democracy which is rule of many. There's oligarchy which is rule of the few. Um, and there's monarchy which is rule of the one. And you can just use that as a general framework of any government you're going to be under is going to be one of those. Just a mechanical observation without even saying which one's good or bad. Just a structural observation. Um, and so the question that Michelle's asked was like, is there such a thing as democracy? Like, is there actually such a thing as

[2:01:09] democracy? Is is there ever actually like direct direct government? And what he did was he mounted this sort of incredible historical uh exploration of whether democracies had ever existed in the world. And the answer basically is almost never. And we could talk about that. But the other thing he did was he he sought out the most democratic uh private organization in the world that he could find at that point which he concluded was some basically communist German autoworkers union that was like wholly devoted to the workers of the world uniting you know back when that was like the hot thing and he went in there and he's like okay this is the organization out of all organizations on planet earth that must be operating as a

[2:01:42] as as a direct democracy and he went in there and he's like oh nope there's a leadership class you know there's like six guys at the top and they control everything [laughter] and they lead the rest of the membership along you know by the nose which is of course the story of every union. The story of every union is always the story of, you know, there's there's a Jimmy Hoffa in there, you know, kind of running the thing. You know, we just saw that with the doc workers union, right? Like, you know, there's a guy. Um, and he's in charge. And by the way, the number two is his son, right? Like that's not like a, you know, an accident, right? So, the iron law oligarchy basically says democracy is fake. Um, there's always a ruling class.

[2:02:15] There's always a ruling elite structurally. And he said the reason for that is because the masses can't organize, right? what what's the fundamental problem that whether the mass is 25,000 people in a union or 250 million people in a country the masses can't organize the majority cannot organize only a minority can organize um and to be effective in politics you must organize um and therefore every political structure in human history has been some form of a small organized elite ruling a large and dispersed majority every single one. Um the Greeks and the Florentines had brief experiments in direct democracy and they were total disasters. Uh in Florence, I forget the name of it. It was called

[2:02:53] like the workers revolt or something like that. There was like a 2-year period um where they basically experimented with direct democracy during the Renaissance and it was a complete disaster and they never tried it again. In the state of California, we have our own experiment on this which is the proposition system which is an overlay on top of the legislature and it, you know, anybody who looks at it for two seconds concludes it's been a complete disaster. It's just a catastrophe. Um, and it's caused enormous damage to the state. And so basically the the the basically the presumption that we are in a democracy is just sort of by definition fake. Now good news for the US. It turns out the founders understood this and so of

[2:03:27] course they didn't give us a direct democracy. They gave us a representative democracy, right? Right. And so they they they built the oligarchy into the system in the form of Congress and the and the executive branch and the judicial branch. Um but but so anyway, so as a consequence, democracy is always everywhere fake. There is always a ruling elite. Um and and basically the the the the lesson of the Machavelians is you can deny that if you want, but you're fooling yourself. Um the way to actually think about how to make a system work and maintain any sort of shred of freedom um is to actually understand that that is actually what's happening. And uh lucky for us, the Vander saw this and figured out a way to given that there's

[2:04:02] going to be a ruling elite, how to create a balance of power among that elite. Yes. So it doesn't get out of hand. >> And it was very clever, right? And you know, some of this was based on earlier experiments. Some of this, by the way, you know, they these these were very very smart people, right? And so they they knew tremendous amounts of like Greek and Roman history. They knew the Renaissance history. You know, they the Federalist papers, they argued this at great length. You can read it all. um you know they they they they ran like a one of the best seminars in world history trying to figure this out um and they they went through all this and yeah and so they they thought through it very carefully but just I'll give you an

[2:04:32] example which continues to be a hot topic so you know one way they did it is through the three branches of government right executive legislative and judicial um sort of balance of powers but the other way they did it was they sort of echoing what had been done earlier I think in the UK parliament um uh they created the two different bodies of the legislature right and so the you know the house and the senate and as you know the the house of portion on the basis of population and the Senate is not right. Uh the small states have just as many senators as the big states. Um and then they made the deliberate decision to have the House get reelected every two years to make it very responsive to the

[2:05:04] will of the people and they made the decision to have the Senate get re-elected every six years so that it had more buffer from the passions of the moment. Um but what's interesting is they didn't choose one or the other, right? They did them both. And then to to get legislation passed, you have to get through both of them. And so they they built in like a second layer of checks and balances. And then there's a thousand observations we could make about like how well the system is working today and like how much does it live up to the ideal and how much are we actually complying with the constitution and there's lots of you know there's lots of open questions there but you know this system has survived for coming

[2:05:36] on 250 years with a country that has been spectacularly successful that I don't think at least you know I don't think any of us would trade the system for any other one and so it's yeah one of the great all-time achievements. Yeah, it's incredible. And we should say they were all pretty young relative to our current set of leaders, >> many in their 20s at the time and like super geniuses. This is one of those things where it's just like, all right, something happened where there was a group of people where, you know, nobody ever tested their IQs, but like these are Einsteins of politics. Yeah. An amazing thing. But anyway, I I I just I go through all that, which is they were very keen students of the actual

[2:06:07] mechanical practice of democracy, not fixated on what was desirable. They were incredibly focused on what would actually work, which is, you know, I think the the way to think about these things. >> They were engineers of sort, not the fuzzy humanity students of sort. >> They were shape rotators, not word cells. >> I [laughter] remember that. Wow. That meme came and went. I think you were central to that. You're central to a lot of memes. >> I was. >> You're You're the meme dealer and the meme popularizer. >> That's true. >> That meme I get some credit for. And then the current thing is the other one I get some credit for. I don't know that I invented either one, but um I I popularized them. >> Take credit and run with it.

[2:06:46] >> Uh if we can just linger on the McKavalians, it's a it's a study of power and power dynamics like you mentioned looking at the actual reality of the machinery of power. from everything you've seen now in government but also in companies what are some interesting things you can sort of continue to say about the dynamics of power the jostling for power that happens inside these institutions yeah so it a lot of it you know we we already talked about this a bit with the universities which is you can apply a Machavevelian style lens to the it's why I posed the question to you that I did which is okay who runs the university the trustees the administration the students or the faculty and and you know

[2:07:26] the answer the true answer is some combination of the three of the four plus the donors by the way plus the government plus the press etc right and so there you know there's there's a mechanical interpretation of that I mean companies operate under the exact same you know set of questions who runs a company you know the CEO but like the CEO runs the company basically up to the day that either the shareholders or the management team revolt if the shareholders revolt it's very hard for the CEO to stay in the seat if the management team revolts it's very hard for the CEO to stay in the seat by the way if the employees revolt it's also hard to stay in the seat by the way if the New York Times comes at you, it's

[2:07:58] also very hard to stay in the seat. If the Senate comes at you, it's very hard to stay in the seat. So, you know, like a a a a a reductionist version of this that is a good shortorthhand is who can get who fired, you know, so so who has more power? You know, the the newspaper columnist who makes, you know, $200,000 a year or the CEO who makes, you know, $200 million a year. And it's like, well, I know for sure that the columnist can get the CEO fired. I've seen that happen before. I have yet to see a CEO get a columnist fired. Did anyone ever get fired from the Bill Aman assault on journalism? So, Bill Bill like really showed the [ __ ] that happens in journalism. >> No, cuz what happens is they they they

[2:08:37] wear it with a I mean they and I would say to their credit they wear it as a badge of honor and then to their shame they wear it as a badge of honor, right? Which is if you know if they're doing the right thing then they are justifiably priding themselves for standing up under pressure. But it also means that they can't respond to legitimate criticism and you know They're obviously terrible at that now. Um, as I recall, he went straight to the CEO of I think Ashel Springer >> that owns Insider and I, you know, and I I happen to know the CEO and I think he's quite a good CEO, but like I like Well, there's a good example. Does the CEO of Axel Springer run his own company, >> right? Like, well, there's a fascin

[2:09:11] Okay, so there's a fascinating thing playing out right now. Not to dwell on these fires. Um, but um, it's a you see the pressure reveals things, right? And so if you've been watching what's happened with the LA Times recently, so so this guy biotech entrepreneur buys the LA Times like whatever 8 years ago. Um it is just like the most radical social revolutionary thing you can possibly imagine. It endorses every crazy leftwing radical you can imagine. It endorses Karen Bass. It endorses Gavin Newsome. It's just like an litany of all the people who are currently burning the city to the ground. It's just like endorsed every single bad person every step of the way. Um he's owned it the entire time. you know, he

[2:09:44] put his foot down right before for the first time, I think, put his foot down right before the November election and said, "We're not we're getting he said we're going to get out of this thing where we just always endorse the Democrat and we said we're not endorsing." I think he said, "We're not endorsing for the for the presidency." And like the paper flipped out, right? It's like our billionaire backer who and I don't know what he spends, but like he must be burning 50 or $100 million a year out of his pocket to keep this thing running. He paid 500 million for it, which is amazing. U back when people still thought these things [laughter] were businesses. Um, and then he's probably burned another 500 million over

[2:10:16] the last decade keeping it running. And he burns probably another 50 100 million a year to do this. And the journalists at the LA Times hate him with the fury of a thousand sons. Like they just like absolutely freaking despise him. And they have been like attacking him. And you know the ones that can get jobs elsewhere quit and do it. And the rest just stay and say the worst, you know, most horrible things about him. And they want to constantly run these stories attacking him. Um, and so he has had this reaction that a lot of people in LA LA are having right now to to this fire and to this just like incredibly vivid collapse of leadership and all these people that he had his paper head endorsed are just disastrous. Um, and he

[2:10:48] he's on this tour. He's basically just he's decided he's he's decided to be the the boy who says the emperor has no clothes, but he's doing it to his own newspaper. Very smart guy. He's on a press tour and he's basically saying, "Yeah, we we yes, we did all that and we endorsed all these people and it was a huge mistake and we're going to completely change." and his paper is, you know, in a complete internal revolt. But I go through it, which is, okay, now we have a very interesting question, which is who runs the LA Times because for the last eight years, it hasn't been him. [laughter] It it's been the reporters. Now, for the first time, the owner is showing up saying, "Oh, no. I'm actually in charge." And the reporters are

[2:11:23] saying, "No, you're not." And like like it is freaking on. And so, again, if the Machavelian's mindset on this is like, "Okay, how is power actually exercised here? Can can can a guy who's like even super rich and super powerful, who even owns his own newspaper, can he stand up to a full-scale assault, not only by his own reporters, but by every other journalism outlet who also now thinks he's the antichrist. >> And he is trying to exercise power by speaking out publicly. And so that's the game of power there >> and firing people and you know he has removed people and he has set new rules. I mean he he is he is now I think at long I think he's saying he's now at long last actually exercising prerogatives of an owner of a business

[2:12:00] which is to decide on the policies and staffing of the business. there are certain other owners of these publications that are doing similar things right now. Um, he's the one I don't know, so he's the one I can talk about. Um, but there are others that are going through the same thing right now. Um, and I think it's a really interesting open question like you know in a fight between the employees and the employer. Like it's not crystal clear that the employer wins that one. >> And just to stay on journalism for a second, we mentioned Bill Aman. I just want to say put him in the category we mentioned before of a really courageous person. I don't think I've ever seen anybody so fearless in going after,

[2:12:36] you know, in following what he believes in publicly. That's courage. That that that several things he's done publicly has been really inspiring. Just being courageous. What do you think is like the most impressive example >> where he went after a journalist >> whose whole incentive is to like I mean it's uh it's like sticking your like kicking the beehive or whatever. You know what's going to follow >> and to do that. I mean, that's why it's difficult to challenge journalistic organizations because they're going to, you know, there's just so many mechanisms they use, including like writing articles and get cited by Wikipedia, then drive the narrative and then they can get you fired, all this kind of stuff. Bill Aman like a bad mfer

[2:13:21] just just tweets these essays and just goes after them uh legally and also in the public eye and just I I don't know that was truly inspiring. And there's not many people like that out uh in public. And I hopefully that inspires not just me but many others to be like to be courageous themselves. >> Did you know of him before he started doing this in public? >> I knew of Ner his his wife. She's this brilliant researcher and scientist. And so I I admire her, look up to her. I think she's amazing. >> Well, the reason I asked if you knew about Bill is because a lot of people had not heard of him before, especially like before October 7th and before some of the campaigns he's been running since in public, but um and with Harvard and

[2:14:01] so forth. But um he was very well known in the in the investment world before before that. So uh he was a famous um he was a so-called acti activist investor for you know very very successful and very widely respected for probably 30 years before before before now. And and I bring that up because it it turns out they weren't [clears throat] for the most part battles that happened in kind of full public view. They weren't national stories. But in the business and investing world it the activist investor is a very it's like in the movie Taken. It's a very specific set of skills. um >> yeah, [laughter] >> on how to like really take control of situations um and how to wreck the people who you're going up against. Um

[2:14:36] and um just and there's lot there's been controversy over the years on this topic and there's too much detail to go into but the the defensive activist investing which I think is valid is um you know these are the guys who basically go in and take stakes in companies that are being poorly managed or underoptimized and and and and then generally what that means is at least the theory is that means the existing management has become entrenched and lazy mediocre you know whatever not you know responding to the needs of the shareholders often not responding to the customers um And the activists basically go in with a minority position and then they rally support among other investors who are not activists. Um and then they

[2:15:12] basically show up and they force change. Um but they are the aggressive version of this. Um and I've been on the I've been involved in companies that have been on the receiving end of these. >> Um where it is amazing how much somebody like that can exert pressure on situations even when they don't have formal control. So So it's another it would be another chess piece on the mechanical board of kind of how power gets exercised. And basically what happens is the effective analysts a large amount of the time they end up taking they end up taking over control of companies even though they never own more than like 5% of the stock. And so anyway, so it turns out with Bill's been it's such a fascinating case because he

[2:15:42] has that like complete skill set. >> Um and he has now decided to bring it to bear in areas that are not just companies. And two interesting things for that. One is you know some of these places you know and some of these battles are still ongoing. But number one, like a lot of people who run universities or newspapers are not used to being up against somebody like this. U and by the way, also now with infinitely deep pockets and lots of experience in courtrooms and all the things that kind of go with that. Um but the other is through example, he is teaching a lot of the rest of us the activist playbook like in real time. And so the Liam Niss skill set is getting more broadly diffused um just by being

[2:16:17] able to watch and learn from him. So I I think he I think he's having a you know I would put him up there with Elon in terms of somebody who's really affecting how all this is playing out. >> But even skill set aside just courage and >> Yes. including by the way c courage to go outside of his own zone. >> Yeah. >> Right. Um you know because like he hasn't I'll give you an example like my my firm venture capital firm we have LPs. There are things that I feel like I can't do or say because I feel like I would be bringing you know I would be bringing embarrassment or other consequences to our LPs. He has investors also where he worries about that. Um, and so his so a couple things. One is his willingness to go out a bit

[2:16:50] and risk his relationship with his own investors. But I will tell you the other thing which is his investors I know this for a fact. His investors have been remarkably supportive of him doing that because as it turns out a lot of them actually agree with him. Um, and so he's the same thing he does in his activism campaigns. He is able to be the tip of the spear on something that actually a lot more people agree with. >> Yeah. It turns out if you have truth behind you, it it helps. And just again, you know, how I started is a lot of people are just fed up. [snorts] >> You've been spending a bunch of time in Mara Lago in Palm Beach helping the new administration in many ways including uh interviewing people who might join. So

[2:17:27] uh what's your general sense about the talent about the people who are coming in into the new administration? >> Yeah. So I should start by saying I'm not a member of the new administration. Um I'm not I'm not in the I'm not like in the room when a lot of these people are being selected. >> I believe you said unpaid intern. I am an unpaid intern. Uh so I'm I'm a volunteer and you know when helpful, but I'm not I I'm not making the decisions, nor am I in a position to, you know, speak for the administration. So I don't want to say anything that would cause people to think I'm doing that. There's a very unusual situation, right, where you had an incumbent president and then you had a four-year gap where he's out

[2:17:57] of office and then you have him coming back, right? Um and as you'll recall, there was a fair amount of controversy over the end of the first term. >> Oh, yeah. >> The fear, the specific concern was um you know, the first Trump administration, they you know, they they will all say this is like they didn't come in with a team, right? So they they you know they didn't come into the team and most of the sort of institutional base of the Republican party were Bush Republicans and they were and many of them had become never Trumpers and so they had a hard time putting the team together and then by the way they had a hard time getting people confirmed and so if you talk to the people who were there in the first term it took them two

[2:18:27] to three years to kind of even get the government in place and then they basically only had the government in place for um you know for basically like 18 months and then co hit you know and then sort of the aftermath and everything and all the all the drama and headlines and everything and so the the concern you know including from some very smart people in the last two years has been, boy, if Trump gets a second term, is he going to be able to get a team that is as good as the team he had last time or a team that is actually not as good? Cuz maybe people got burned out, maybe they're more cynical now. Maybe they're not willing to go through the drama. By the way, a lot of people on in the first term came under like,

[2:18:57] you know, their own withering legal assaults and, you know, some of them went to prison and like, you know, a lot of a lot of stuff happened. Uh, lots of investigations, lots of legal fees, um, lots of bad press. Um, lots of debunking. By the way, a lot of the officials in the first Trump term got debunked. [gasps] Um, including the president's wife and son. >> Yeah, I heard you tell that story. That's insane. That's just insane. >> In the wake of the first term, yes, we we now take out spouses and children with our ring of power. Um, and so there there's like this legitimate question as to like whether okay, what what will the team for the second term look like? And at least what I've seen and what you're

[2:19:31] seeing this appointments is it looks much much better. Um, first of all, it just looks better than the first term. and not because the people in the first term were not necessarily good, but just you you just have this like influx of like incredibly capable people that have shown up that want to be part of this. Um, and you just didn't have that the first time. Um, and so they they're just drawing on a much deeper, richer talent pool than they had the first time. And and they're drawing on people who know what the game is. Like they're drawing on people now who know what is going to happen and they're still willing to do it. Um, and so they're going to get, I think, you know, some of the best people

[2:19:59] from the first term, but they're bringing in a lot of people who they couldn't get uh the first time around. Um, and then second is there's a bunch of people, including people in the first term, where they're just 10 years older. Um, and so they went through the first term and they just learned how everything works. Um, or they're young people who just had a different point of view and now they're 10 years older and they're ready to go serve in government. Um, and so there's a generational shift happening. And actually, one of the interesting things about the team that's forming up is it's remarkably young. some of the cabinet members and then many of the second and third level people are like in their 30s and 40s you

[2:20:30] know which is a big change from the gerontocracy that you know we've been under for the last 30 years um and so I think the caliber has been outstanding you know and we could sit here and list tons and tons of people but like you know the people who are running you know it's everything from the people who are running all the different departments at HHS it's the people running you know the the number two at the Pentagon is Steve Fineberg who's just like an incredible legend of private equity incredible capable guy um we've got uh two actually two of my partners are going who I both think are amazing. Yeah. Like many many parts of the government the people are like really impressive. Well, I think

[2:21:03] one of the concerns is is actually that um given the human being of Donald Trump that there would be more tendency towards let's say favoritism versus meritocracy that there's kind of circles of sickopancy that form and if you're be able to uh be loyal and never oppose and just be uh basically suck up to the president that you'll get a position. So, that's one of the concerns and I think you're in a good position to speak to the degree that's happening versus uh hiring based on merit and just getting great teams. >> Yeah. So, look, I just start by saying any leader at that level, by the way, any CEO, there's always some risk of that, right? So, there there's always some, you know, it's just it's like a

[2:21:51] natural reality warps around around powerful leaders. And so, there's always some risk to that. Of course, the good powerful leaders are, you know, very aware of that. And Trump at this point in his life, I think, is highly aware of that. at least my interactions with him like he he he definitely seems very aware of that. So um so so that's one thing I would just say that I think the way to look at that I mean look like I said I don't want to predict what's going to happen once this whole thing starts unfolding but um I I would just say again the caliber of the people who are showing up and getting the jobs and then the fact that these are some of the most accomplished people in the business world um and in the medical field um I I

[2:22:22] just you know Jay Badataria coming in to run NIH when so I was actually in the I was actually I was part of the interview team for a lot of the HHS folks um >> Jay is amazing. Oh I was so I was so happy to see that. So, I literally got, this is a story, I got to the the the transition office for one of the days of the HHS interviews and I was on one of the interviewing teams and they gave us I didn't know who the candidates were and they gave us the sheet in the beginning and I go down the sheet and I saw Jay's name and I like I almost physically fell out of my chair. >> Yeah. >> And I was just like, you know, and I have I happen to know Jay. I happen to know Jay and I like respect him enormously. And then he

[2:22:52] proved himself under this like talk about a guy who proved himself under extraordinary pressure uh over the last 5 years >> and then go radical under the pressure. He maintained balance and thoughtfulness and depth. I mean, incredible. >> Very serious, very analytical, very applied and and and and yes, 100% tested under pressure, came out like the more people look back at what he said and did and you know, he's not, you know, none of us are perfect, but like overwhelmingly like overwhelmingly insightful throughout that whole period. Um, and you know, we you know, we would all be much better off today had he been in charge of the response. Um, and and so just like an incredibly capable guy and

[2:23:28] and look and and then he learned from all that, right? and he he learned a lot in the last 5 years. Um and so the idea that somebody like that could be head of NIH as compared to the people we've had is just like breathtakingly it's just a gigantic upgrade. Um you know and then Marty Machery coming in to run FDA exact same thing. Um the guy coming to run CDC exact same thing. Um um um I mean I've been spending time with Dr. Oz. Um so um you know I'm not like as again I'm not like I'm not on these teams. I'm not in the room, but like I've been spending enough time trying to help that like his level of insight into into the healthare system is like it's like astounding. And it comes from being a guy who's been

[2:24:01] like in the middle of the whole thing and been talking to people about this stuff and working on it and serving as a doctor himself and in medical systems for, you know, his entire life and is just like, you know, he's like a walking encyclopedia on these things and so and, you know, very dynamic, you know, very charismatic, very smart, organized, effective. Um so you know to have somebody like that in there and so anyway there just I have like 30 of these stories now across all these different um all these different positions and so I and then I just I'd be quite honest I you do the compare and contrast of the last four years and it not even these people are not in the same ballpark. They're just like wildly

[2:24:34] better. Um, and so it, you know, pound-for-pound is maybe the best team in the White House since, you know, I don't even know, maybe the '9s, maybe the maybe the 30s, maybe the ' 50s. [clears throat] You know, maybe Eisenhower had a team like this or something, but um, it it's it's there's a lot of really good people in there now. >> Yeah, the potential for change is certain extremely high. What can you speak to Doge? What's the most wildly successful next two years for Doge? Can you imagine maybe also can you think about the trajectory that's the most likely and uh what kind of challenges would it be facing? >> Yeah. So, and I start by saying again I'm not disclaimer. I have to disclaim. I'm not on Doge. [laughter]

[2:25:18] I'm not a member of Doge. >> We should say there's about 10 lawyers in the room. They're staring. No, I'm just kidding. >> Both the angels and the devils on my shoulder are lawyers. So, um yeah. So, I'm not speaking for Doge. Um I'm not in charge of Doge. >> Um those guys are doing it. I'm not doing it. But I am, you know, again, I'm I'm volunteering to help as much as I can. Um, and I'm 100% supportive. Um, yeah. So, look, I I I think the way to think, I mean, the the basic outlines are in public, right, which is it's a it's a time limited, you know, basically commission. Um, uh, it's not a formal government agency. Um, it's a, you know, time limited 18-month um, it'll it'll in terms of implementation, it will advise

[2:25:54] the executive branch, right? And so, the the the implementation will happen through the the White House. Um, and the president has total attitude on what he wants to what he wants to implement. Um and then basically I think about it is the three kind of streams you know kind of target sets and they're related but different. So money uh people and regulations um and so you know the headline number they you know put us the $2 trillion number and there's already you know disputes over over that and whatever and there's a whole question there but then there's the people thing and the people thing is interesting because you get into these very um kind of um fascinating questions. Um, and I've been

[2:26:27] doing this I I won't do this for you as a pop quiz, but I do this for people in government as a pop quiz and I can stump them every time, which is a how many federal agencies are there? >> Mhm. >> And the answer is somewhere between 450 and 520 and nobody's quite sure. And then the other is how many people work for the federal government? Um, and the answer is, you know, something on the order I forget, but like 4 million full-time employees and maybe up to 20 million contractors, and nobody is quite sure. And so there's a large people component to this. Um and then by the way there's a related component to that which is how many of them are actually in the office and the answer is not many. most of the federal buildings are

[2:27:02] still empty, right? And so, and then there's questions of like are people, you know, working from home? Are we actually working from home? So, there's the people dimension and of course the money and the people are connected. And then there's the third which is the the regulation thing, right? And I I described earlier how basically our system of government is much more now based on regulations than legislation, right? Most of the rules that we all live under are not from a bill that went through Congress. They're from an agency that that created a regulation. That turns out to be very very important. So one is Elon have already described we want to do the Doge wants to do broad-based regulatory relief and Trump

[2:27:33] has talked about this and basically get the government off people's backs and liberate the American people to be able to do things again. Um so that's part of it but there's also something else that's happened which is very interesting which was there were a set of Supreme Court decisions about 2 years ago um that went directly after the idea that the executive branch can create regulatory agencies and issue regulations and enforce those regulations without corresponding congressional legislation. Um, and most of the federal government that exists today, including most of the departments and most of the rules and most of the money and most of the people, most of it is not enforcing laws the Congress

[2:28:08] passed. Most of it is is regulation. And the Supreme Court basically said large parts, you know, large to maybe all of that regulation that did not directly result from a bill that went through Congress the way that the cartoon said that it should. Um, that may not actually be legal. Now, the previous White House, of course, was super in favor of big government. They had no desire to act. They did nothing based on this. They they didn't, you know, pull anything back in. But the new regime, if they choose to, could say, "Look, the the thing that we're doing here is not, you know, challenging the laws. We're actually complying with the Supreme Court decision that basically says we have to unwind a lot of this and we have

[2:28:46] to unwind the regulations, which are no longer legal, constitutional. We have to unwind the spend and we have to unwind the people." Um and and so and that's how you get from basically you connect the thread from the regulation part back to the money part back to the people part. Um they have work going on all three of these threads. They have I would say incredibly creative ideas on how to deal with this. Um I'm I I know lots of former government people who 100% of them are super cynical on this topic. And they're like this is impossible. This could never possibly work. And I'm like well I can't tell you what the secret plans are but like like blow my mind. like and all three of those like they they have ideas that are

[2:29:20] like really quite amazing as you'd expect from you know from from the people involved and so um over the course of the next few months you know that'll start to become visible and then the final thing I would say is um this is going to be very different than than attempts like there have been other programs like this in the past um the Clinton Gore administration had one and then there were others before that Reagan had one um the the difference is at this time their social media >> um and so There has never been like it's interesting. One of the reasons people in Washington are so cynical is because they know all the [ __ ] Like they know all the bad spending and all the bad rules and all the like, you know, I

[2:29:59] mean, look, we're adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days right now. And that's compounding and it's now passing the size of the Defense Department budget. And it's compounding. And it's pretty soon it's going to be adding a trillion dollars every 90 days. And then it's going to be adding a trillion dollars every 80 days. And then it's going to be a trillion dollars every 70 days. And then if this doesn't get fixed at some point, we enter a hyperinflationary spiral and we become Argentina or Brazil and Kabooi, right? And so like everybody in DC knows that something has to be done and then everybody in DC knows for a fact that it's impossible to do anything, right? They know all the problems and

[2:30:31] they also know the sheer impossibility of fixing it. But I think what they're not taking into account, what the critics are not taking into account is these guys can do this in the full light of day and they can do it on social media. They can completely bypass the press. They can completely bypass the cynicism. They can expose any element of, you know, unconstitutional or, you know, silly government spending. They can run victory laps every single day on what they're doing. They can they can bring the people into the process. And again, if you think about it, this goes back to our Mabelian uh structure, which is if you think about again, you've got democracy, oligarchy, monarchy, rule of the many, rule of the few, rule of the

[2:31:06] one. You could think about what's happening here as a little bit of a sandwich, right? which is you have you have we don't have a monarch but we have a president rule of the one with some power and then we have the people who can't organize but they can be informed and they can be aware and they can express themselves through voting and polling right and so there's a sandwich happening right now is the way to think about it which is you've got basically monarch monarchy you've got rule of one combining with rule of many right and rule of many is they do get to vote right the people do get to vote basically and then essentially congress as in this sort of permanent bureaucratic class in Washington as the

[2:31:39] oligarchy in the middle. And so the White House plus the people um I think have the power to do all kinds of things here. And I and I think that that would be the way I would watch it. >> The transparency I mean Elon just uh by who he is in is incentivized to be transparent and show the [ __ ] in the system and to celebrate the victories. So it's going to be so exciting. I mean honestly just makes government more exciting which is a win for everybody. These people are spending our money. >> Yeah, >> these people have enormous contempt for the taxpayer. Okay, here's the thing you hear in Washington. Here's one of the things. So, the first thing you hear is this is impossible. They'll be able to

[2:32:19] do nothing. And then I walk them through this and they're like, they start to get it starts to dawn on them that this is a new kind of thing. And then they're like, well, it doesn't matter because all the money is in entitlements and the debt and the military. And so, like, yeah, you've got like this silly fake whatever, you know, NPR funding or whatever. And like it just it's a rounding error and it doesn't matter. and you look it up in the budget and it's like whatever $500 million or $5 billion or it's the or it's the the the the it's the charging stations that don't exist. It's the $40 billion of charging stations and they build eight charging stations or it's the it's the broadband internet plan that delivered

[2:32:50] broadband to nobody, right? And cost you $30 billion like so these these boondoggles and what everybody in Washington says is that $30 billion is a rounding error on the federal budget. It doesn't matter. Who cares if they if they if if they make it go away? And of course any taxpayer is like what the [laughter] >> what do you mean? >> It's $30 billion. >> Yeah. >> Right. And then then then the experts are like and the press is in on this too. Then the experts are like, "Well, it doesn't it doesn't matter because it's a rounding." No, no, it's $30 billion. And if you're this cavalier about $30 billion, imagine how cavalier you are about the three trillion. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Then there's the Okay, $30

[2:33:23] billion. Is $30 billion a lot of the federal budget in a percentage? No, it's not. But $30 billion divided by 30, do the math. $30 billion divided by let's say 300 million taxpayers, >> right? Like what's that math expert? >> $100. >> $100 per taxpayer per year. Okay. So $100 to an ordinary person working hard every day to make money and provide for their kids. $100 is a meal out. It's a trip to the amusement park. It's the ability to, you know, buy additional educational materials. It's the ability to have a babysitter, to be able to have a romantic relationship with your wife. It's there's like a hundred things that that person can do with $100 that they're not doing cuz it's going to some [ __ ] program that is being basically

[2:34:02] where the money is being looted out in the form of just like ridiculous ridiculousness and graft. And so the idea that that $30 billion program is not something that is like a very important thing to go after is just like the level of contempt for the taxpayer >> is just off the charts. And then that's just one of those programs and there's like a hundred of those programs and they're all just like that. Like it's not like any of this stuff is running well. Like the one thing we know is that none of this stuff is running well. Like we know that for sure, right? And we like we know these people aren't showing up to work and like we know that all this crazy stuff is happening, right? Um and like you know the the do you

[2:34:34] remember Elon's story of the um do you remember Elon's story of what got the Amish to turn out to vote in Pennsylvania? >> Oh, okay. So like Pennsylvania. Okay. So Pennsylvania is like a wonderful state, great history. It has these cities like Philadelphia that have descended like other cities into just like complete chaos, violent madness, and death, right? And the federal government has just like let it happen. It's incredibly violent places. And so the Biden administration decided that the big pressing law enforcement thing that they needed to do in Pennsylvania was that they needed to start raiding Amish farms to prevent them from selling raw milk with armed raids, >> right? >> And it turns out it really pissed off

[2:35:07] the Amish. And it turns out they weren't willing to drive to the polling places cuz they don't have cars. But if you came and got them, they would go and they would vote. And that's one of the reasons why Trump won. Anyway, so like the law enforcement agencies are off working on like crazy things. like the system's not working. And so you you add up just pick a $130 billion programs. All right. Now you're okay, math major. 100 times 100 >> 10,000 >> $10,000. Okay. $10,000 per taxpayer per year. >> And but but it's also not just about money that's really obviously money is a hugely important thing, but it's the cavalier attitude. Yes. That then in sort of in the ripple effect of that, >> it makes it so nobody wants to work in

[2:35:48] government and be productive. It makes it so that corruption can it breeds corruption. It breeds laziness. It breeds secrecy because you don't want to be transparent about having done nothing all year. All this kind of stuff. You don't want to reverse that. So it would be exciting for the future to work at government to because the the amazing thing if you're the steel man government is you can do [ __ ] at scale. you have money and you can directly impact people's lives in a positive uh sense at scale. That's it's super exciting. As long as there's no bureaucracy that slows you down or not huge amounts of bureaucracy that slows you down significantly. >> Yeah. So, uh here's here's the trick.

[2:36:31] This blew my mind because I was you know once you look into once you open the hell mouth of looking into the federal budget you learn all kinds of things. Um, so there is a term of art in government called impoundment. >> And so you you if you're like me, you've learned this the hard way when your car has been impounded. The government meaning of empoundment, the federal budget meaning is a is a different meaning. Um, empoundment is as follows. The constitution uh requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. Right? So the the the executive branch goes to Congress, says we need money X. Congress does their thing. They come back and they say you can have money Y. The money is

[2:37:05] appropriated from Congress. the executive branch spends it on the military or whatever they spend it on or on roads to nowhere, charging stations to nowhere or whatever. Um the the and what's in the constitution is the the Congress appropriates the money. Um over the last 60 years um there has been an additional interpretation of appropriations applied by the courts um and by the system um which is the executive branch not only needs Congress to appropriate X amount of money, the executive branch is not allowed to underspend. >> Yeah, I'm aware of this. I'm aware of this. >> And so there's this thing that happens in Washington at the end of every fiscal year, which is September 30th, and it's

[2:37:42] the it's the great budget flush. And any remaining money that's in the system that they don't know how to productively spend, they deliberately spend it unproductively. >> Yeah. >> To the tune of hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. A president that doesn't want to spend the money can't not spend it. >> Yeah. >> Like, okay, a that's not what's in the Constitution. Um, and there's actually quite a good Wikipedia page that goes through the the great debate on this has played out in the legal world over the last 60 years. And like basically, if you look at this with anything resembling, I think an open mind, you're like, "All right, this is not what the founders meant." Um, and then number

[2:38:13] two, again, we go back to this thing of contempt. Like, can you imagine [snorts] showing up and running the government like that and thinking that you're doing the right thing and not going home at night and thinking that you've sold your soul, right? Like it's just like I actually think you sort of hit a really good point which is it's even unfair to the people who have to execute this. >> Yeah. >> Right. Because it it makes them it makes them bad people and they didn't they didn't start out wanting to be bad people. And so there is stuff like this like >> Yeah. Everywhere. >> Everywhere. And so we'll see how far these guys get. I'm I am extremely encouraged what I've what I've seen so far. >> It seems like a lot of people will try

[2:38:45] to slow them down but yeah hope they get far. >> Yeah. >> Another difficult topic, immigration. What's your take on the uh let's say heated H-1B visa debate that's going on online and legal immigration in general? >> Yeah, so I should start by saying I am not involved in any aspect of government policy on this. I'm not planning to be this is not an issue that I'm working on or that I'm going to work on. I'm we're not this is not part of the agenda of what the firm is doing. So my firm is doing. So like I'm not I'm not in I'm not in this in the new administration or the government. I'm not planning to be. So purely just personal opinion. So I would say I would describe as a complex or nuanced hopefully nuanced view on on

[2:39:24] this issue that's maybe a little bit different than what a lot of my peers have. Um and I think and I kind of thought about this you know I didn't say anything about it all the way through the big kind of debate over Christmas but I thought about it a lot read everything. Um I think what I realized is that I just have a very different perspective on some of these things and the reason is because of the combination of where I came from and then where I ended up. Um and so um let's start with this. I where I ended up in Silicon Valley. So, um, and I have made the proskilled high skilled immigration argument many, many times, the H-1B argument many times in past lives. I've been in DC many times, arguing with

[2:39:59] prior administrations about this, always on the side of trying to get more H1Bs and trying to get more high skilled immigration. Um, and, you know, I think that argument is very strong and very solid and very um, you know, has paid off for the US in some in many many ways and we can go through it, but I think it's the argument everybody already knows, right? It's like the stock You take any Silicon Valley person, you press the button and they tell you why we need to brain drain the world to get more H1Bs, right? So everybody kind of gets that argument. >> So it's basically just to summarize, it's a mechanism by which you can get super smart people from the rest of the world, import them in, keep them here to

[2:40:32] uh increase the productivity of the US companies. >> Yeah. and and then and then and then that it's not just good for the them and it's not just good for Silicon Valley or the tech industry, it's good for the country because they then create new companies and create new technologies and create new industries that then create many more jobs for Americans, nativeborn Americans than would have previously existed. And so you've got a it's a positive sum flywheel thing where everybody wins like everybody wins. There are no trade-offs. It's all absolutely glorious in all directions. You cannot possibly there cannot possibly be a moral right argument against it under any circumstances. anybody who argues against it is

[2:41:05] obviously doing so from a position of racism is probably a fascist than a Nazi. Right. [laughter] Right. I mean, >> right. >> That's the thing. And like I said, I've made that argument many times. I'm I'm very comfortable with that argument. And then I'd also say, look, I I I would say number one, I believe a lot of it. I'll talk about the parts I don't believe, but I believe a lot of it. And then the other part is look, I I benefit every day. I I I always describe it as I work in in the United Nations. like I my own firm and our founders and our companies and the industry um and my friends um you know are just this like amazing you know paniply cornucopia of people from all over the world um and you know I

[2:41:41] just I've worked I don't know at this point with people from it's got to be I don't know 80 countries or something um and hopefully over time it'll be you know the rest as well and you know it's just it's been amazing and they've done many of the most important things in my industry and it's it's been really remarkable so so that's all good um and And then you know there's just the practical version of the argument which is we are the we are the main place these people get educated anyway right they the the best and the brightest tend to come here to get educated and so you know this is the old kind of Mitt Romney staple of green card to every you know at least you know maybe not every university degree but every technical

[2:42:10] degree maybe the sociologists we could quibble about but you know the roboticists for sure for sure for sure we can all agree that >> at least I won you over on something today. Well, no. I'm I'm exaggerating for effect. So, >> and I lost you. I had you for a second. >> I haven't gotten to the other side of the argument yet. >> Okay. Thank you. >> So, surely we can all agree >> that uh we need to staple a green card. >> The roller coaster is going up. >> The roller coaster is ratcheting slowly up. So, um yeah. So, surely we can all agree that the roboticist should all get green cards. And again, like there's a lot of merit to that. Obviously, like look, we want the US to be the world leader in robotics. What's step one to

[2:42:44] being the world leader in robotics is have all the great robotics people, right? like you know very unlike the underpants gnome it's like a very straightforward formula right >> all right that's all well and good all right but it gets a little bit more complicated um because um there is a kind of argument that's sort of right underneath that that you also hear from you know these same people and I have made this argument myself many times which is we need to do this because we don't have enough people in the US who can do it otherwise right we have all these unfilled jobs we've got all these you know all these companies that wouldn't exist we don't have enough good founders we don't have enough engineers

[2:43:12] we don't have enough scientists or or then the next version of the argument below that is our education system is not good enough to generate those people. Um, and which is a weird argument by the way cuz like our education system is good enough for foreigners to be able to come here preferentially in like a very large number of cases but somehow not good enough to educate our own nativeorn people. So there's like a weird these little cracks in the matrix that you can kind of stick your fingernail into and kind of wonder about and we'll come back to that one but like at least yes our education system has its flaws and then and then underneath that is the is the argument that you know VC made um you

[2:43:44] know which is you know we have a cultural rot in the country and you know native born people in the country aren't you know don't work hard enough and spend too much time watching TV and Tik Tok and don't spend enough time studying differential you know equations. Um and again it's like all right like you know yeah there's a fair amount to that like there's a lot of American culture that um is um you know there's a lot of frivvality there's a lot of you know look I mean we have well doumented social issues on many fronts many things that cut against having a culture of just like straightforward high achievement and and effort and striving anyway like you know those are the basic arguments um but then I have this kind

[2:44:17] of other side of my you know kind of personality and thought process which is well I grew up in a small farming town in rural Wisconsin the rural Midwest and you know it's interesting there's not a lot of people who make it from rural Wisconsin to, you know, high-tech. Um, and so it's like, all right, why is that exactly right? And and I know I'm an aberration. Like I I was the only one from anybody I ever knew who ever did this, right? That I know what an aberration I am and I know exactly how that aberration happened and it's a very unusual, you know, set of steps. Um, including, you know, many that were were just luck. Um, but like it there is in no sense a talent flow from rural Wisconsin into high-tech. Like not at

[2:44:54] all. Um, there is also like in no sense a talent flow from the rest of the Midwest into high-tech. There is no talent flow from the South into high-tech. There is no flow from the Sunb Belt into high-tech. There is no flow from, you know, the Deep South into high-tech. Like just like literally it's like the blank SP there's this whole section of the country that just where the people just like for some reason don't end up in tech. Now, that's a little bit strange because these are the people who put a man on the moon. >> These are the people who built the World War II war machine. These are the people at least their ancestors are the people who built the second industrial revolution and built the railroads and

[2:45:29] built the telephone network telephone network and built you know logistics and transportation in the auto ind. I mean the auto industry was built in Cleveland and Detroit and so at least these people's parents and grandparents and great-grandparents somehow had the wherewithal to like build all of this like amazing things invent all these things. And then there's many many many many stories in the history of American invention and innovation and capitalism where you had people who grew up in the middle of nowhere, Philo Farnsworth who invented the television and just like you know tons and tons of others endless stories like this. Now you have like a a puzzle, right, and a conundrum which is like, okay, like what is happening on

[2:46:01] the blank spot of the map? And then of course you also can't help noticing that the blank spot on the map, the Midwest, the South, you've also just defined Trump country, [laughter] >> the Trump voter base, right? And it's like, oh well, that's interesting. Like how how did that happen, right? Right. And so either you really really really have to believe the very very strong version of like the VC thesis or something where you have to believe that like that basically culture the whole sort of civilization in the middle of the country and the south of the country is so like deeply flawed either inherently flawed or culturally flawed such that for whatever reason they are not able to do the things that their you

[2:46:34] know parents and grandparents were able to do and that their peers were able to do or something else is happening. Would you care to guess on what else is happening? You >> mean what? Affirmative action. >> Affirmative action. Okay, [laughter] this is very think about this is very entertaining, right? What are the three things that we know about affirmative action? It is absolutely 100% necessary. But however, it cannot explain the success of any one individual, >> right? >> Nor does it have any victims at all. >> That could explain maybe disproportionate, but like it it surely doesn't explain why you're probably the only person in Silicon Valley from Wisconsin. What educational institution in the last 60 years has wanted farm

[2:47:14] boys from Wisconsin? >> But what institution rejected farm boys from Wisconsin? >> All of them. >> All of them. >> Of course. Okay. So, we know this. We know this. The reason we know this is because of the Harvard and UNCC court Supreme Court cases. >> So, this was like three years ago. These were these were big court cases. And you know that because the idea of affirmative action has been litigated for many many many years and through many court cases. And the Supreme Court repeatedly in the past had upheld that it was a completely legitimate thing to do. And a lot of these and there's basically two categories of affirmative action that like really matter, right? The one is um the admissions into

[2:47:44] educational institutions and then the other is jobs, right? Getting hired. Like those are the two biggest areas. The education one is like super potent has been a super potent political issue for a very long time for all you know people have written and talked about this for many decades. I don't I don't need to go through it. There's many arguments for why it's important. There's many arguments as to how it could backfire. It's been this thing. But the Supreme Court upheld it for a very long time. Um the most the most recent ruling I don't I'm not a lawyer. I don't have the exact reference in my head, but there was a case in 2003 that said that um Sandra Day Oconor famously wrote that um you know it although it

[2:48:16] had been 30 years of affirmative action and although it was not working remotely as it had had been intended um uh she said that you know well basically we need to try it for another 25 years but she said basically as a message to future Supreme Court justices if it hasn't resolved basic basically the issues it's intended to resolve within 25 years then we should probably call it off. By the way we're coming up on the 25 years. It's couple it's a couple years away. Uh the Supreme Court just uh had these cases. It was a Harvard case and I think a UT University of North Carolina case. And what's interesting about those cases is the the lawyers in those cases put a tremendous amount of evidence into the record of how the

[2:48:51] admissions decisions actually happen um at Harvard and happen at UNC. And it is like every bit as cartoonishly garish and racist as you could possibly imagine because it's a ring of power. And if you're an admissions officer at a private university or an administrator, you have unlimited power to do what you want and you can justify any of it under any of these rules or systems. Um, and up until these cases, it had been a black box where you didn't have to explain yourself and show your work. And and what the Harvard and USC cases did is they basically required showing the work. And so they and there was like all kinds of like phenomenal detail. I mean, number one is there were text messages in there that will just curl your hair

[2:49:28] of people of students being spoken of and just like crude racial stereotypes that would just make you want to jump out the window. It's horrible stuff. But also, um, there was statistical information. And of course, the big statistical kicker to the whole thing is that at top institutions, it's common for diff different ethnic groups to have different cutoffs for SAT, uh, that are as wide as 400 points. Um, right? So different groups. So it so so a specifically Asians need to perform at 400 SAT points higher than other ethnicities in order to actually get admitted into these I mean this is not even about I mean white people are a part of this but like Asians are like a very big part of this and actually the

[2:50:03] the Harvard case is actually brought by an activist on behalf of actually the Asian students who are being turned away. Um, and it it's basically I mean it's the cliche now in in in the valley and in the medical community which is like if you want a super genius you hire an Asian from Harvard cuz they are guaranteed to be freaking Einstein cuz if they weren't they were never getting admitted right almost all the qualified Asians get turned away. Um so they've been running this it's a very very explicit very very clear program. Um this of course has been a third rail of things that people are not supposed to discuss or under any circumstances. Um the thing that has really changed the tenor on this is I think two things.

[2:50:37] Number one, those Supreme Court cases, the Supreme Court ruled that they can no longer do that. I will tell you, I don't believe there's a single education institution in America that is conforming with the Supreme Court ruling. Um, I think they are all flagrantly ignoring it. And we we could talk about that >> mostly because of momentum probably or what? >> They are trying to make the world a better place. They are trying to solve all these social problems. They are trying to have diverse student populations. They are trying to live up to the expectations of their donors. They are trying to make their faculty happy. they are trying to um have their friends and family think that they're good people,

[2:51:08] >> right? >> They're trying to have the press write nice things about them. Like it's nearly impossible for them. And and you know, to be clear, like nobody has been fired from an admissions office for, you know, 25 years of prior what we now the Supreme Court now has ruled to be illegality. Um and so they're all the same people under the exact same pressures. Um, and so, um, like I, you know, the numbers are moving a little bit, but like I don't think I don't know anybody in the system who thinks that they're complying with the Supreme Court. Like who's in charge in the rank ordering of who rules who, the universities rule the Supreme Court way more than the Supreme Court rules the universities, right? Well, another

[2:51:42] example of that is I think it's is that every sitting member of the Supreme Court right now went to either Harvard or or Yale, right? Like the the level of incestuousness here is like any anyway. So, so there's that and so so this has been running for a very long time. So one is the Harvard and UNCC cases kind of gave up the game number one or at least show showed what the mechanism was. Uh and then number two, the other thing is obviously the the aftermath of October 7th, right? Um and what we discovered was happening with Jewish applicants. Um and what was happening at all the top institutions for Jewish applicants was they were being managed down being actively managed down as a percentage of the of of the base. Um and

[2:52:16] um let's say I I've heard reports of like extremely explicit um uh basically plans to manage to manage the Jewish admissions down to their representative percentage of the US population which is 2%. And and you know there's a whole backstory here which is 100 years ago Jews were not admitted into a lot of these institutions and then there was a big campaign to get them in. Once they could get in they immediately became 30% of these institutions because there's so many smart talented Jews. So it went from 0% to 30% and then the most recent generation of leadership has been trying to get it down to 2%. And a lot of Jewish people, at least a lot of Jewish people I know, sort of they kind of knew

[2:52:49] this was happening, but they discovered it the hard way uh after October 7th, right? And so all of a sudden, so so basically the the Supreme Court case meant that you could address this in terms of the Asian victims. The October 7th meant that you could address it in terms of the Jewish victims. And for sure both of those groups are being systematically excluded, right? And then of course um there's the thing that you basically can't talk about which is all the white people are being excluded. And then it turns out it's also happening to black people. And this is the thing that like blew my freaking mind when I found out about it. So um I just assumed that like this was great news for like American blacks because

[2:53:26] like you know obviously if you know whites, Asians and Jews are being excluded then you know the whole point of this in the beginning was to get the black population up and so this must be great for American blacks. So then I discovered this New York Times article from 2004 u called u blacks are being admitted into top schools at greater numbers but which ones? >> Uhoh. >> And again by the way this is in the New York Times. This is not in like you know whatever national review. This is New York Times uh 2004. And the two authorities that were quoted in the story are Henry Lewis Gates who's the dean of the African-American studies you know community in the United States. Super brilliant guy. And then Lonni

[2:54:02] Guineir who was a she was a potential Supreme Court uh appointee under I think uh close friend of Hillary Clinton and there was for a long time she was on the short list for Supreme Court. So one of the top you know jurists lawyers in the country both black um sort of legendarily successful in their in their in the academic and legal worlds. Um and black um and they are quoted as the authorities in this story and the story that they tell is actually very it's amazing. Um and by the way it's happening today in uh education institutions and it's happening in companies and you can see it all over the place and the government um which is um at least at that time the number was half of the black admits into a place

[2:54:42] like Harvard were not Americanborn blacks they were foreignb born blacks um specifically u uh northern African off generally Nigerian um or west Indian um right um and by the way many Nigerians and northern Africans have come to the and have been very successful. Nigerian-Americans as a group like way outperformed. They're, you know, this a super smart cohort of people. And then West Indian blacks in the US are incredibly successful. Um, most recently, by the way, Kla Harris as well as Colon Powell like just two sort of examples of that. And so basically what Henry Lewis Gates and Lana Grineer said in the story is Harvard is basically struggling to either whatever it was identify, recruit, make successful,

[2:55:22] whatever it was, Americanborn native blacks. And so therefore they were using high school immigration, high school immigration as an escape hatch to go get blocks from other countries. Um and then and then this was 2004 when you could discuss such things. Um obviously that is a topic that nobody has discussed since. It has sailed on. All of the DEI programs of the last 20 years have had this exact characteristic. Um there's large numbers of black people in America who are fully aware of this and are like it's obviously not us that are getting these slots where we're obviously we're literally competing with people who are being imported and and you know if you believe in the basis of affirmative

[2:55:56] action you are trying to make up for historical injustice of American black slavery. So the idea that you're import somebody from you know Nigeria that never experienced that um you know is like tremendously insulting to to to black Americans. Anyway, so you can see where I'm heading with this. We have been in a 60-year social engineer engineering experiment to exclude nativeborn people from the educational slots and jobs that high school immigration has been funneling foreigners into, right? And so it turns out it's not a victim-free thing. There's there's like 100% there's victims cuz why? There's only so many for sure there's only so many education slots and then for sure there's only so many of these jobs, right? You know

[2:56:32] Google only hires so many, you know, whatever level seven engineers, right? And so so so that's the other side of it, right? And so you're a farm boy in Wisconsin, right? Or a, you know, black American whose ancestors arrived here, you know, on a slave ship 300 years ago in Louisiana or a, you know, Cambodian immigrant in, you know, the Bronx. Um, and you're a kid or a Jewish immigrant, uh, or, you know, from a very successful Jewish family. Um, and you know, your entire, you know, for three generations, you and your parents and grandparents went to Harvard. And what all of those groups know is the system that has been created is not for them, right? It's designed specifically to exclude them.

[2:57:11] And then what happens is all of these tech people show up in public and say, "Yeah, let's bring in more foreigners." Right? And so so anyway, so the the the short version of it is you can't anymore, I don't think, just have the the the um the the the quote high skil immigration conversation for either education or for um uh or for employment without also having the DEI conversation. Um and then underneath and then DEI is just another word for affirmative action. So it's it's the affirmative action conversation and you you need to actually deal with this it substance and to see what's actually happening to people who needed to join these topics and and and I think it is much harder to make the moral claim for

[2:57:45] high school immigration given the the the extent to which DEI took over both the education hiring uh education process and the and the hiring process. >> Okay. So first of all that was brilliantly laid out the nuance of it. So, just to understand, it's not so much a criticism of H1B, high skilled immigration. It's that there needs to be more people saying, "Yay, we need more Americanborn hires." >> So, I spent the entire Christmas holiday reading every message on this and not saying anything. And what I was, [laughter] which you know me well enough to know that's a serious level of >> Yeah, that was very zen. >> Yes. Thank you. Thank you. No, it wasn't. There was tremendous rage on the other side of it, but we I suppressed

[2:58:23] it. So, um, I was waiting for the dog that didn't bark, right? And the dog that didn't bark was I did not, and you tell me if you saw one, I did not see a single example of somebody pounding the table for more high school immigration who was also pounding the table to go get more smart kids who are already here uh, into these educational institutions and into these jobs. I didn't see I didn't see a single one. >> That's true. I I I think I agree with that. There's there really was a divide, >> but it was like literally it was like the proponents of five skilled immigrant and again, this was me for a very long time. I mean, I kind of took myself by surprise on this because I was on, you know, I I I I had the much say simpler

[2:58:58] version of this story for a very long and like I said, I I've been in Washington many times under past presidents lobbing for this, by the way, never made any progress, which we could talk about, like it never actually worked. Um but um you know I I've been on the other side of this one but I was literally sitting there and being like all right which of these like super geniuses um who you know many of whom by the way are very you know successful high school immigrants or children of high school immigrants you know which of these super geniuses are going to like say actually we have this like incredible talent source here in the country which again to be clear I'm not talking about white people I'm talking

[2:59:27] about native born Americans whites Asians Jews blacks for sure >> for sure for sure those four groups >> but also white people. Yeah. And and also white people, >> people that are making the case for Americanborn hires are usually not also supporting H-1B. This is it's an extreme divide and those people that are making that case are often not making it in a way that's like uh m making it in quite a radical way. Let's put it this way. >> Yeah. But you have this interesting thing. You have a split between the sides that I've noticed which is one side has all of the experts. >> Right. >> Right. And I and I'm using scare for people listening to audio. I'm making quotes in the air with my fingers as

[3:00:07] vigorously as I can. >> One side has all the certified experts. >> The other side just has a bunch of people who are like they know that something is wrong and they don't quite know how to explain it. >> And what was so unusual about the Harvard UNCC cases by the way in front of Supreme Court is they actually had sophisticated lawyers for the first time in a long time actually put all this evidence together and actually put it in the public record. They actually they actually had experts which is just which is just really rare. Generally what you get is you get because if you don't have experts what do you have? you know something is wrong and you have but you have primarily an emotional response.

[3:00:35] You feel it. But can you put it, you know, can you put it in the words and tables and charts, you know, that that a certified expert can and no, you can't. Like that's not, you know, that's not who you are. That doesn't mean that you're wrong. And it also doesn't mean that you have less of a moral stance. Um yeah, and so it's just like, all right, now by the way, look, I think there's there I think there are ways to square the circle. I think there's a way to have our cake and eat it, too. Like I I think there'd be many ways to resolve this. Um I I think again I think the way to do it is to look at these these these issues combined. Look at DEI combined with um high school immigration. It so happens that DEI um is under much more

[3:01:09] scrutiny today than it has been for probably 20 years. Affirmative action is um the Supreme Court did just rule that it is not legal um for universities to do that. They are still doing it but they should stop. Um and then there are more and more you've seen more companies now also dishing their DEI programs. >> Um in part that's happening for a bunch of reasons, but it's happening in part because a lot of corporate lawyers will tell you that the Supreme Court rulings in education either already apply to businesses or it just is a clear foreshadowing the Supreme Court will rule on new cases that will ban businesses. And so so so there there is a moment here to be able to look at this um on both sides. Um, let me add one

[3:01:52] more nuance to it though that makes it even more complicated. >> Yeah. >> So, the cliche is we're going to brain drain the world, right? You've heard that. We're going to we're going to take all the smart people from all over the world. We're going to bring them here. We're going to educate them and then we're going to keep them and then they're going to raise their families here, create businesses here, create jobs here, right? >> In the cliche, that's a super positive thing. >> Yeah. Okay. So, what happens to the rest of the world? >> They lose. >> Well, how funible are people? How many highly ambitious, highly conscientious, highly energetic, high achieving, high IQ super geniuses are there in the world? And if there's a

[3:02:28] lot, that's great. But if there just aren't that many and they all come here and they all aren't where they would be otherwise, what happens to all those other places? So, it's almost impossible for us here to have that conversation in part because we become incredibly uncomfortable as a society talking about the fact that people aren't just simply all the same. um which is a whole thing we could talk about but um also we we are purely the beneficiary of this effect right we are brain draining the world not the other way around there's only four so if you look at the flow of high skill immigration over time there's only four permanent syncs of high skill immigration places people go it's the US

[3:03:05] Canada the UK and Australia it's the it's >> what Australia >> it's the four it's four of the five five eyes it's the major angloposphere countries and so for those countries this there this seems like a no- lose proposition it's all the other countries that basically what what we what we four countries have been doing is draining all the smart people out. It's actually much easier for people in Europe to talk about this I've discovered. um because the Euro zone is whatever you know 28 countries and within the Euro zone the high-killed people over time have been migrating to originally the UK but also specifically I think it's the Netherlands um Germany and France but specifically they've been migrating out

[3:03:38] of the peripheral Eurosone countries and the the the one where this really hit the fan was in Greece right so you know Greece falls into chaos disaster and then you know you're running the government in Greece and you're trying to figure out how to put an economic development plan together all of your smart young kids have left like what are you going to do, right? Um, by the way, this is a potential I know you care a lot about Ukraine. This is a potential crisis for Ukraine. Not [clears throat] because in part because of this, because we enthusiastically recruit Ukrainians, of course, and so we've been drain brain draining Ukraine for a long time, >> but also of course, you know, war does tend to cause people to to migrate out.

[3:04:12] And so, you know, when it comes time for Ukraine to rebuild as a peaceful country, is it going to have the talent base even that it had 5 years ago is like a very big and important question. By the way, Russia, like we have brain drained a lot of really smart people out of Russia. A lot of them are here, right, over the last, you know, 30 years. Um, and so there's this thing, it's actually really funny if you think about it, like the one thing that we know to be the height of absolute evil that the West ever did was colonization >> and resource extraction, right? So, we know the height of absolute evil was when the Portuguese and the English and, you know, everybody else went and had these colonies and then went in and we,

[3:04:46] you know, took all the oil or we took all the diamonds or we took all the whatever lithium or whatever it is, right? Well, for some reason we realize that that's a deeply evil thing to do when it's a physical resource, when it's a non-concious physical matter. Um, for some reason, we think it's completely morally acceptable to do it with human capital. In fact, we think it's glorious and beautiful and wonderful and, you know, the great flowering of of of peace and harmony and and moral justice of our time to do it. And we don't think for one second what we're doing to the countries that we're pulling all these people out of. And I I this is one of these things like I don't know like maybe we're just going to live in this

[3:05:19] delusional state forever and we'll just keep doing it and it'll keep benefiting us and we just won't care what happens. But like I I think there may come this is one of these this is like one of these submarines under 10 ft under the water line. Like I think it's just a matter of time until people suddenly realize oh my god what are we doing cuz like we need the rest of the world to succeed too, right? Like we need these other countries to like flourish. Like we don't want to be the only successful country in the middle of just like complete chaos and disaster and we just extract and we extract and we extract and we don't think twice about it. >> Well, this is so deeply profound actually. So what is the cost of winning

[3:05:54] quote unquote? If these countries are drained in terms of human capital on the on the level of geopolitics, what does that lead to? Even if we talk about wars and conflict and all of this, we actually want them to be strong in the way we understand strong, not just in every way so that cooperation and competition can build a better world for all of humanity. >> It's interesting. I [laughter] I've been this is one of those uh truths where you just speak and it it resonates and I didn't even think about it. >> Yeah. Exactly. So this is what you were sitting in during the holiday season [laughter] just boiling over. So all that said, there's still to you some good to the H-1B. >> Okay. So then you get this other Okay.

[3:06:42] So then there's >> going come all the way around. >> There's another nuance. So there's another nuance. There's another nuance which is mostly in the valley we don't use H-1Bs anymore. >> Mostly we use 01's. >> So there's a se there's you may there's a separate class of visa and and the 01 is like this. It turns out the 01 is the super genius visa. >> Mhm. Uh so the 01 is the basically our our founder like when we have like a when we have somebody from anywhere in the world and they've like invented a breakthrough in new technology and they want to come to the US to start a company they come in through an 01 visa. Um and and that actually is like a it's a fairly high bar. It's a high acceptance rate but it's like a pretty

[3:07:12] high bar and they they do a lot of work and they there's like a you have to put real work into it really really prove your case. Um mostly what's happened with the H-1B visa program um is that it has gone to basically two categories of employers. one is the basically a small set of big tech companies that hire in volume which is exactly the companies that you would think um and then the other is it goes to these what they call kind of the mills um the consulting mills right and so there's these set of companies with names I don't want to pick on companies but you know names like cognizant that you know hire basically have their business model uh is primarily Indian bring in primarily Indians um in in large numbers um and

[3:07:47] you know they often have you know offices next to company owned housing and they'll have you know organizations that are you know they'll have you know organizations that are literally thousands of Indians, you know, living and working in the US and they do basically um call it mid-tier like uh IT consulting. So the you know these folks they're making good good good wages but they're making 60 80 or $100,000 a year not the you know 300,000 that you'd make in the valley. Um and so like in practice the startups basic like little tech as we call it or the startup world mainly doesn't use H-1Bs at this point and and mainly can't because the system is kind of rigged in a way that we really can't. Um, and then and then and

[3:08:24] then again you get to the sort of underlying morality here, which is it's like, well, you know, Amazon like Amazon's a like I love Amazon, but like they're a big powerful company. You know, they've got, you know, more money than God. They've got resources. They've got a long-term planning horizon. They do big, you know, profound things over, you know, decades at a time. Um, you know, they could, you know, or any of these other companies could launch massively effective programs to go recruit the best and brightest from all throughout the the country. And, you know, you'll notice they don't do that. you know, they bring in, you know, 10,000 20,000 H1Bs a year. Um, and so you've got a question there. Um, and

[3:08:57] then these mills, like there's lots of questions around them and whether they should, you know, whether that's even a ethical way, you know, I don't want to say they're unethical, but there's questions around like exactly what what the trade-offs are there. Um, and so, you know, this this Yeah. And this is like a Pandora's box that really, you know, nobody really wanted to be opened. um you know to to to play devil's advocate on all this in terms of like national immigration issues you know none of this is like a top- end issue just cuz the numbers are small um right and so you know I don't think you know the administration has said like this is not like a priority of theirs for right now um but I guess what I would say is

[3:09:28] like there is actually a lot of complexity and nuance here um I have a lot of f like I said I have a lot of friends and colleagues who are you know came over on H1Bs or green cards many are now citizens and you know every single one one of them was not every single one a lot of them were enthusiast astic to, you know, defend the honor of immigrants throughout this whole period. And they said to me, it's like, well, Mark, how can we, you know, how can we, how can we more clearly express, you know, the importance of high school immigration to the US. And I was like, um, I think you can do it by advocating for also developing our native porn talent. Like, do you want to inflame the issue or do you want to diffuse the issue,

[3:10:01] >> right? And I I think I think the answer is to diffuse the issue. Uh, let me give you one more positive scenario, which and then I'll also beat up on the university some more. Um do you do you know about the National Merit Scholarship System? Have you heard about this? >> Um not really. Can you explain? >> So there's a system that was created during the Cold War um called the National Merit Scholars. And um it is a basically um it was created I forget in the 1950s or 60s when it was when people in government actually wanted to identify the best and the brightest >> as heretical an idea as that sounds today. Um and so it's basically a national talent search for basically IQ. um it it goal is to identify basically

[3:10:40] the top 0.5% of the IQ um uh in the country by the way completely regardless of other characteristics. So there's no race, gender or any other aspect to it. It's just going for straight intelligence. Um it uses the first the PAT um which is the preparatory SAT that you take um and then the SAT. Uh so it uses those scores that that is the scoring. It's a straight PAT SAT scoring system. Um so they use the SAT as a proxy for IQ which it is. Um uh they run this every year. They identify they they it's like a they get down to like 1% of the population of the kids of 18-year-olds in any given year who scored highest on the PAT and then they get down to they further qualify down to the 0.5% that also replicate on

[3:11:20] the SAT. Um and then it's like the scholarship amount is like $2,500, right? So it's like it was a lot of money 50 years ago, not as much today. But it's a national system being run literally to find the best and the brightest. Mhm. >> How many of our great and powerful universities use this as a scouting system? Like our universities all have sports teams. They all have national scouting uh they have full-time scouts who go out and they go to every high school and they try to find all the great basketball players and bring them into the NCAA into all these leagues. Um how many of our great and powerful and enlightened universities use the National Merit System to go do a talent uh search for the smartest kids and just

[3:11:56] bring them in? >> Let me guess. Very few. >> Zero. >> Zero. As you say it, that's brilliant. There should be that same level of scouting for talent internally. >> Go get the smartest ones. I give you one more kicker on this topic if you're not if I haven't beaten it to death. Um, you know, the SAT has changed. >> Um, so the SAT used to be a highly accurate proxy for IQ. Um, that caused a bunch of problems. People really don't like the whole idea of IQ. Um, [clears throat] and so the SAT has been actively managed over the last 50 years by the College Board that runs it. And it has been essentially like everything else, it's been dumbed down. Um, and so the the in in in two ways. Um, number one, it's been dumbed down where uh an

[3:12:39] 800 from 40 years ago does not mean what an 800 means today. Um, and 800 40 years ago, it was almost impossible to get an 800. Uh, today there's today there's so many 800s that you could stock the entire Ivy League with 800s, right? Um, and so so so so it's been deliberately dumbed down. Um, and then two is they have they have tried to pull out a lot of what's called the g- loing. And so they they've tried to detach it from being an IQ proxy because IQ is such an inflammatory concept and and the consequence of that is and this is sort of perverse. They've made it more coachable, right? So the IT the SAT 40 years ago coaching didn't really work. And more recently it has really started to work.

[3:13:14] And one of the things you see is that the Asian spike, you see this like giant leap upward in Asian performance over the last decade. And I I think looking at the data, I think a lot of that is because it's more coachable now and the and the Asians do the most coaching. Um so there's a bunch of issues with this. And so the coaching thing is really difficult because the coaching thing is a subsidy then to the kids whose parents can afford coaching, >> right? And I don't know about you, but where I grew up, there was no SAT coaching. So there's like an issue there. I didn't even know what the SAT was until the day I took it. Much less that there was coaching, much less that it could work. So much less we could

[3:13:44] afford it. So So number one, there's issues there. But the other issue there is think about what's happened by the dumbing down. 800 no longer captures all the smart 800 is too crude of a test. It's like the AI benchmarking problem. It's it's the same problem we have in AI benchmarking right now. 800 is too low of a threshold. There are too many kids scoring 800 because what you want is you want whatever if it's going to be 100,000 kids. I don't know what it is, but it's going to be 50,000 kids a year scoring 800. You also then want kids to be able to score 900 and 1,000 and 1100 and 1200 and you want to ultimately get to >> you know this you'd like to ident ultimately identify the top 100 kids and

[3:14:19] make sure that you get them in MIT >> and the resolution of the test has been reduced so that it actually is not useful for doing that. And again, it's I I would say this is like part of the generalized corruption that's taken place throughout this entire system where we we we have been heading in the reverse direction from wanting to actually go get the best and brightest and actually put them in the places um where they should be. And then just the final comment would be the great thing about standardized testing and the national merit system is it's like I said, it's completely race blind. It's gender blind. It's blind on every other characteristic. it's only done on test scores, you know, and you can make an

[3:14:50] argument about whether that's good or bad, but it is, you know, for sure, um, you know, it's the closest thing that we had to get to merit. Um, it was the thing that they did when they thought they needed merit to win the Cold War. And of course, we could we could choose to do that anytime we want. And, and I just say I find it like incredibly striking, um, and an enormous moral indictment of the current system that there are no universities to do this today. >> So, back to the immigration thing just real quick. It's like, okay, we aren't even trying to go get the smart kids out of the center of South and and even if they think that they can get into these places, they get turned down. And the

[3:15:19] same thing for the smart Asians and the same thing for the smart Jews and the same thing for the smart black people. And like it it just like it's just like I don't know how like I I don't know how that's moral. Like I I don't get it at all. As you said about the 800, so I took the SAT and ACT many times and there I've always gotten perfect at math 800. It's just and I'm not that I'm not special. Like it it it doesn't identify genius. I think you want to search for genius and you want to create measures that find genius of all different kinds. Speaking of diversity, and I guess we should reiterate and say over and over and over, uh, defend immigrants, yes, but say we should hire more and more

[3:16:08] nativeorn. >> Well, you asked me in the beginning like what what would what's the most optimistic forecast, right, that we could have? And the most optimistic forecast would be, my god, what if we did both? [laughter] Like, >> so that's the reasonable, the rational, the smart thing to say here. In fact, we don't have to have a war. >> Well, it would diffuse, it would diffuse the entire issue. >> Yeah. >> If everybody in the center in the south of the country and every Jewish family, Asian family, black family knew they were getting a fair shake. Like, it would diffuse the issue. Like, how about diffusing the issue? Like, what a crazy radical. Sorry, I don't mean to really get out over my skis here, but

[3:16:43] >> I think your profile on X states it's time to build. It feels like 25 2025 is a good year to build. So uh I wanted to ask your advice and maybe uh for advice for anybody who's trying to build so who's trying to build something useful in the world maybe launch a startup or maybe just launch apps services whatever ship software products. So maybe by way of advice, how do you actually get to shipping? >> So I mean a big part of the answer I think is we're in the middle of a legit revolution. And I know you've been talking about this on your show, but like AI coding, I mean this is the biggest earthquake to hit software in certainly my life. um maybe since the invention of software um and I'm sure

[3:17:36] you know we're involved in various of these companies but you know these these tools um you know from a variety of companies are um like absolutely revolutionary and and and they're getting better by leaps and bounds right every day and and you you you know all this but like the thing with coding like there there's like open questions of whether AI can get better at like I don't know understanding philosophy or whatever creative writing or whatever but like for sure we can make it much better at coding >> right [clears throat] because you can validate the results of coding um And so, you know, there's all these methods of, you know, synthetic data and selftraining and reinforcement learning that for sure you can do with with

[3:18:07] coding. And so, everybody I know who works in the field says AI coding is going to get to be phenomenally good and it's it's already great and you you can I mean, anybody wants to see this just go on YouTube and look at AI coding demos. You know, little little kids making apps in 10 minutes working with an AI coding system. And so, I think it's the golden age. I mean, I think this is an area where it's clearly the golden age. The tool set is extraordinary. You know, in in a day as as a coder, for sure, in a day you can retrain yourself. um uh you know, start using these things, get a huge boost in productivity. As a non-coder, you can learn much more quickly than you could before. >> That's that's actually a tricky one in

[3:18:38] terms of learning as a non-coder to build stuff. It's still I feel like you still need to learn how to code. It it becomes a superpower. It helps you be much more productive. Like you could legitimately be a oneperson uh company and get quite far. >> I agree with that. Up to a point. So the um I think for sure for quite a long time the people who are good at coding are going to be the best at actually having AIs code things um because they're going to understand what I mean very basic they're going to understand what's happening right and they're going to be be able to evaluate the work and they're going to be able to you know literally like manage AIS better um like even if they're not literally

[3:19:15] handwriting the code they're just going to have a much better sense of what's going on so I definitely think like 100% my nine-year-old is like doing all kinds of coding classes and he'll keep doing that for certainly through 18 we'll see after that um and so like for sure that's the case. Um but but look having said that one of the things you can do with an AI is say teach me how to code right. Um, and so and you know there's there's a whole bunch of um you know I I'll name names you know Khan Academy like there's a whole bunch of a whole bunch of work that they're doing at Khan Academy for free and then you know we have this company Replet uh which is was originally specifically built for kids

[3:19:47] for coding um that is has AI built in that's just absolutely extraordinary now. Um and then you know there's a variety of other of other systems like this um and uh yeah that I mean the AI is going to be able to teach you to code. The AI by the way is as you know spectacularly good at explaining code. >> Mhm. >> Right. Um, and so you know the tools have these features now where you can talk to the codebase and so you can like literally like ask the codebase questions about itself. Um, and you can also just do the simple form which is you can copy and paste code into chatgpt and just ask it to explain it what's going on, rewrite it, improve it, make recommendations and so there there's yeah there's dozens of ways to to to do

[3:20:23] this. By the way, you can also I mean even more broadly than code like you okay you want to make a video game okay now you can do AI art generation sound generation dialogue generation voice generation right and so all of a sudden like you don't need designers you know you don't need um you know voice actors you know so yeah so there's just like unlimited and and then you know big is you know a big part of coding is so-called glue you know it's it's interfacing into other systems so it's interfacing into you know stripe to take payments or something like that and you know AI's fantastic at writing glue Um, so you know, really, really good at making sure that you can plug everything together, really good at helping you

[3:20:58] figure out how to deploy. Um, you know, it'll even write a business plan for you. Um, so it it's just this it's it's like everything happening with AI right now. It's just it's like this latent superpower and there's this incredible spectrum of people who have really figured out massive performance increases, productivity increases with it already. there's other people who aren't even aware it's happening and there's some gearing to whether you're a coder or not, but I think there are lots of non-coders that are off to the races and I think there are lots of professional coders who are still like, you know, the blacksmiths were not necessarily in favor of, you know, the car business. Um, so, uh, there's the

[3:21:34] old William Gibson quote, the future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet. And this is maybe the most potent version of that that I've ever seen. Yeah, there's uh you know the old meme with the uh with the bell curve that the the people on both extremes say AI coding is the future. Um it's very common with the programmers to say you know if you're any good of a programmer you're not going to be using it. That's just not true. Now I consider myself reasonably good programmer and I my productivity has been just skyrocketed and the joy of programming skyro rocketed is every aspect of programming is more efficient uh more productive more fun all that kind of stuff. I would also say code is

[3:22:16] you know code has code has of anything in like industrial society code has has the highest elasticity which is to say the easier it is to make it the more get get the more of it gets made like I think effectively there's unlimited demand for code like in other words like there's always some other idea for a thing that you can do a feature that you can add or a thing that you can optimize um and so and so like overwhelmingly you know the amount of code that exists in the world is a fraction of even the ideas we have today and then we come up with new ideas all the time um and So I I think that like you know I was I was in the late ' 80s early 90s when sort of automated coding systems started to come out expert

[3:22:52] systems a big deal in those days and there were all these there was a famous book called the decline and fall of the American programmer you know that predicted that these new coding systems were going to mean we wouldn't have programmers in the future and of course the number of programming jobs exploded by like a factor of 100 like my guess will be we'll have more my guess is we'll have more coding jobs probably by like an order of magnitude 10 years from now >> that will be different they'll be different jobs they'll they'll involve orchestrating AI Um but um we there will be we will be creating so much more software that that the whole industry will just explode in size. >> Are you seeing the size of companies

[3:23:24] decrease in terms of startups? What's the landscapes of little tech? >> All we're seeing right now is the AI hiring boom of all time. >> Oh for the big tech >> people and and little tech. Everybody's trying to hire as many engineers as they can to build AI systems. It's just it's 100%. Uh I mean there there's a handful of company you know there's a little bit there's there's customer service you know there we have some companies and others I think it's CLA that's publicizing a lot of this um in Europe um uh where um you know you know there are jobs that can be optimized um and jobs that can be automated but um like for engineering jobs like it's just an explosion of hiring um at least so far there's no trace of

[3:24:03] any sort of diminishing effect um now having said that I am looking forward to the day I I am waiting for the first company to walk and saying yes um like the more radical form of it. So, so basically the companies that we see are basically one of two kinds. We we see the companies that are basically sometimes use weak form strong form. So the the weak form companies I sometimes use the term it's the called the sixth bullet point. U AI is the sixth bullet point of whatever they're doing. >> Sure. >> Right. In this on the slide, right? So they've got the you know whatever dot dot dot dot and then AI is the sixth thing. And the reason AI is the sixth thing is because they had already previously written the slide before the

[3:24:36] AI revolution started. And so they just added the six bullet point in the slide, >> which is how you're getting all these products that have like the AI button up in the corner, right? The little sparkly button. >> Y, >> right? Um, and all of a sudden, Gmail is offering to summarize your email, which I'm like, I don't need that. Like, I need I need you to answer my email, not summarize it. Like, what the hell? >> Okay, so we see those and that's fine. That's like I don't know, putting sugar on the cake or something. Um, but then we see the strong form, which is the companies that are building from scratch for AI, right? Right. And they're they're building it. I actually just met with a company that is building

[3:25:06] literally an AI email system as an example. So just >> Oh, nice. I I can't wait. >> Yeah. They're going to completely Right. So the very obvious idea, very smart team. Um you know, it's going to be great, you know, and and then you know, notion just uh you know, another not one of our companies, but just came out with a product. So So now companies are going to basically come through, sweep through, and they're going to do basically AI first versions of basically everything. And those are like companies built, you know, AI is the first bullet point. It's the strong form of the argument. >> Yeah. Cursor is an example of that. They basically said, "Okay, we're going to re rebuild the thing with AI as the first

[3:25:38] citizen. >> What if we knew from scratch that we could build on this?" And and and again, this is like this is part of the full employment act for startups and VCs is it just like if if a if a technology transformation is sufficiently powerful, then you actually need to start the product development process over from scratch because you need to reconceptualize the product and and then usually what that means is you need a new company because most incumbents just just won't do that. Um, and so yeah, so that that's underway across many categories. Um, what I'm waiting for is the company where it's like, no, our org chart is redesigned as a result of AI, right? So I'm looking I'm waiting for the company where it's like, no, we're

[3:26:11] going to have like, you know, >> and and the cliche, here's a thought experiment, right? The cliche would be we're going to have like the human executive team and then we're going to have the AIs be the workers, right? So we'll have a VP of engineering supervising 100 instances of of coding of coding agents, right? >> Okay. Maybe, right? by the way or maybe um maybe the VP of engineering should be the AI >> maybe supervising human coders who are supervising AIS right because one of the things that AI should be pretty good at is managing >> because it's like not you know it's like a process driven it's the kind of thing that AI is actually pretty good at right performance evaluation coaching um and

[3:26:46] so should it be an AI executive team um and then you know and then of course the ultimate question which is AI CEO right um and then you know and then there's and then maybe the most futuristic version of it would be an actual AI agent that actually goes fully autonomous. Yeah. What if you really set one of these things loose and let it let it basically build itself a business? Um and and so I will say like we're not yet seeing those and I think there's a little bit of the systems aren't quite ready for that yet. Um, and then I think it's a little bit of you really do need at that point like a founder who's really willing to break all the rules um, and really willing to take the swing and and and those people exist and so

[3:27:22] I'm sure we'll see that. >> And some of it is as as you know with all the startups this is the execution the the idea that you have a AI first email client. This seems like an obvious idea but actually creating one executing and then taking on Gmail is really is really difficult. I mean, Gmail, it's it's it's fascinating to see Google can't do it because because why? Because of momentum because it's hard to re-engineer the entirety of the system. Feels like Google's perfectly positioned to to do it. Same with like you have Perplexity, uh, which I love. Like Google could technically take on Perplexity and do it much better, but they haven't not yet. So, it's fascinating why that is for large companies. I mean that that is an

[3:28:07] advantage for little tech. They can be agile. >> Yeah, that's right. >> They can move fast. >> Yeah. Little companies can break glass in a way big companies can't. >> Right. >> This is sort of the big breakthrough that Clay Christensen had in the innovators dilemma, which is sometimes when big companies don't do things, it's because they're screwing up. And that certainly happens. >> But a lot of times they don't do things because it would break too much glass. It would specifically it would it would it would interfere with their existing customers um and their existing businesses and they just simply won't do that. And by the way, responsibly they shouldn't do that. Um, right. Um, and so they just get this

[3:28:39] Clay Christian's big thing is they they often don't adapt because they are wellrun, not because they're poorly run, but they're optimizing machines. They're they're they're optimizing against the existing business. And and and and as as you kind of just said, this is like a permanent state of affairs for large organizations. Like every once in a while, one breaks the pattern and actually does it, but for the most part, like this is a very predictable form of human behavior. And this fundamentally is why startups exist. It feels like 2025 is when the race for dominance in AI will uh see some winners. Like it's a big year. So, who do you think wins the race? Open AI, Meta, Google, XAI. Who do you think wins

[3:29:15] the AI race? >> I would say I'm I'm not going to predict. I'm going to say there's questions all over the place. Um, and then we have we have this category question we call the trillion dollar question, which is like literally depending on how it's answered, people make or lose a trillion dollars. And I think there's like I don't know five or six trillion dollar questions right now that are hanging out there which is an unusually large number. >> Yeah. >> And I just you know I'll just hit a few of them and we can talk about them. So one is big models versus small models. Um another is open models versus closed models. Another is whether you can use synthetic data or not. Another is chain of thought. How far can you push that

[3:29:46] and reinforcement learning? And then another one is political trillion dollar questions. um you know policy questions which you know the US and the EU have both been flunking [snorts] dramatically and the US hopefully is about to really succeed at um yeah and then there's probably another you know half dozen big important questions after that and so these are all just like say this is an industry that's in flux in a way that I even more dramatic I think than the ones I've seen before um and look the most example most obvious example of the flux is sitting here three sitting here in the summer you know sitting here less than three years ago sitting here in December of 22 we would have said that

[3:30:20] OpenAI is just running away with everything. >> Um, and sitting here today, it's like, you know, there's at least six, you know, worldass god model companies and teams that are, by the way, generating remarkably similar results. That's actually been one of the most shocking things to me is like it turns out that once you know that it's possible to build one incredibly smart touring test passing large language model, which was a complete shock and surprise uh to the world, um, it turns out within, you know, a year you can have five more. Um there's also a money component thing to it which is um to get the money to scale one of these things into the billions of dollars. There's basically right now

[3:30:54] only two sources of money that will do that for you. One is um the hyperscalers giving you the money which you turn around and round trip back to them. Um or you know foreign sovereigns you know other you know country sovereign sovereign wealth funds which can be you know difficult in some cases to for companies to access. Um so there's a there's another there's maybe another trillion dollar question is the financing question. Here's one. Uh so Sam Alman has been public about the fact that he wants to transition OpenAI from being a nonprofit to being a for-profit. >> Um the way that that is legally done is that um and there is a way to do it. There is a way in US law to do it. Um the IRS and and other legal entities uh

[3:31:29] government entities scrutinize this very carefully because the US takes foundation nonprofit law very seriously because of the tax exemption. Um, and so the way that historically the way that you do it is you start a for-profit and then you you raise money with the for-profit to buy the assets of the nonprofit at fair market value. Um, and you know, the last financing round at OpenAI was, you know, $150 some billion dollars. And so logically the if if the flip is going to happen, the for-profit has to go raise $150 billion out of the chute to buy the assets. You know, [laughter] raising 150 billion is a challenge. Um, so you know, is that even possible? If that is possible, then OpenAI maybe is off to the races as a

[3:32:08] for-profit company. If not, you know, you know, I don't know. And then, you know, obviously the Elon lawsuit. So, so just because they're the market leader today, you know, there's big important questions there. You know, Microsoft has this kind of lovehate relationship with them. Where does that go? Apple's, you know, lagging badly behind, but, you know, they're very good at catching up. Amazon, you know, is primarily hyperscaler, but they now have their own models. And then there's the other questions like you laid out brilliantly briefly and brilliantly open versus closed big versus little models synthetic data that's a huge huge question and then test compute with uh chain of thought the role of that fasc

[3:32:45] and these are I think it's fair to say trillion dollar questions. Yeah, these are big like look, you know, it's it's like okay, here's a trillion dollar question which is kind of embedded in that which is just hallucinations, right? Like so if you are trying to use these tools creatively, you're thrilled because they can draw new images and they can make new music and they can do all this incredible stuff, right? They're creative. The flip side of that is if you need them to be correct, they they can't be creative. And that's, you know, the term hallucination. >> And these things do hallucinate. And um you know, there have been, you know, court cases already where lawyers have submitted legal briefs that contain

[3:33:17] madeup court citations, case citations that the judge is like, "Wait a minute, this doesn't exist." And the very next question is, "Did you write this yourself?" And the lawyer goes, "Uh, [laughter] >> I mean, that's why with Elon with Grock, uh, yes, looking for truth." I mean that's a open technical question. How close can you get to truth with LLMs? >> Yeah, that's right. And and I I my my sense u this is very contentious topic at the industry. My sense is if to the extent that there is a domain in which there is a definitive and checkable and provable answer and you might say math satisfies that, coding satisfies that and maybe some other fields then you should be able to generate synthetic

[3:33:53] data. You should be able to do chain of thought reasoning. You should be able to do reinforcement learning and you should be able to ultimately you know eliminate hallucinations. um for but by the way that's a trillion dollar question right there as to whether that's true. Um but then but then there's question of like okay is that going to work in the more general domain? Like so for example one possibility is these things are going to get be truly superhuman at like math and coding but at like discussing philosophy they're going to just they're basically as smart as they're ever going to be. Um and they're going to be kind of you know say midwit grad student level. Um and and the theory there would

[3:34:24] just be they're already out of training data. Like they they they they literally if you know you talk to these people like lit literally the big models the big models are like within a factor 2x of consuming all the human generated training data to the point that some of these big companies are literally hiring people like doctors and lawyers to sit and write new training data by hand. >> And so does this mean that like you have to if you want your model to be better at philosophy you have to go hire like a thousand philosophers and have them write new content and is anybody going to do that? >> And so you know maybe maybe these things are topping out in certain ways and they're going to leap way ahead in other

[3:34:51] ways. And so anyway, so we just don't, you know, I guess this this is I tell you maybe my main conclusion is I I don't any of these anybody telling anybody telling you these big sweeping conclusions, you know, this whole super, you know, all of these abstract generalized super intelligence AGI stuff like it, you know, maybe it's the engineer in me, but like no, like that's not the that's not the that's too abstract. Like it it's got to actually work. Um and then by the way, it has to actually have to be able to pay for it. Um, [laughter] I mean this is a problem right now with, you know, the big models. The big models that are like really good at coding a math, they're like actually very expensive to run. You

[3:35:25] know, they're quite slow. Um, another trillion dollar question, future chips. Um, which I know you've talked a lot about. Um, another trillion dollar question, um, yeah, I mean, all the global issues. Oh, another trillion dollar question, censorship, right? Like and and and and um and all the as they say, all the uh human feedback uh training process. Exactly. What are you training these things to do? What are they allowed to talk about? How long do they give you these inc how how often do they give you these incredibly preachy moral lectures? How here's a here's a here's a good here's a trillion dollar question. How many other countries want their country to run its education system, healthare system, news

[3:36:05] [clears throat] system, political system on the basis of an AI that's been trained according to the most extreme leftwing California politics? Um, right? Because that's kind of what they have on offer right now. And I think the answer to that is not very many. So there's like massive open questions there about like what you know and by the way like what morality are these things going to get trained on as a >> and that one we're cracking wide open with uh what's been happening over the past few months censorship on every level of these companies and just the very idea what truth means and what it means to be expand the Overton window of LLMs or the Overton window of human discourse. Yeah. >> So, what what I experienced, you know,

[3:36:46] going back to how we started, what I experienced was, all right, social media censorship regime from hell, debanking, >> right, at like a large scale. Um, and then the war on the crypto industry, trying to kill it, and then basically declared intent to do the same thing to AI. Um, and to put AI under the same kind of censorship and control regime as as as social media and the banks. And I and I think this election tipped in in America. I think this election tipped us from a timeline in which things were going to get really bad on that front uh to a timeline in which I think things are going to be quite good. But look, those same questions also apply outside the US. And you know, the EU is doing

[3:37:21] their thing. They're being extremely draconian and they're trying to lock in a political censorship regime on AI right now to that's so harsh that even American AI companies are not even willing to launch new products in the EU right now. Like that's not going to last. But like what what happens there, right? And what what are the trade-offs? You know, what levels of censorship are American companies going to have to sign up for if they want to operate in the EU? Or is the EU still capable of generating its own AI companies? Or have we brain drained them [laughter] so that they can't? So, big questions. Uh, quick questions. So, you're very active on X, a very unique character, um, flamboyant, exciting, bold. uh you post

[3:38:04] a lot. I think there's a meme I don't remember it exactly but that Elon posted something like uh inside Elon there are two wolves. One is please be kind or more positive and the other one is I think uh you know doing the uh take a big step back and [ __ ] yourself in the face guy. How many wolves are inside your mind when you're tweeting >> to be clear a reference from the comedy classic Tropic Thunder. >> Tropic Thunder. Yeah. Legendary movie. >> Yes. Um, [laughter] any zoomers listening to this who haven't seen that movie, go watch it immediately. >> Yeah, there's nothing offensive about it. >> Nothing offensive about it at all. Um, [laughter] so Tom Cruz's greatest performance. >> Um, so um,

[3:38:51] >> yeah. >> Yeah. No, look, I just start by saying like I'm not supposed to be tweeting at all. So >> Oh, yeah. >> Yes. Yes. Yes. So, but you know, >> so how do you approach that? like how do you approach what to tweet? >> I I mean I don't I look so it's it's a it's a um it it I I don't I don't well enough. Um it's mostly an exercise in frustration. Um look there's a glory to it and there's there's a there's an issue with it and the glory of it is like you know instantaneous global communication you know in X in particular is like the you know the town square on all these you know social issues political issues everything else current events. Um but I mean look there's no question the format the

[3:39:25] format of at least the original tweet is you know prone to be inflammatory. You know, I'm I'm I'm the guy who at one point the entire nation of India hated me. Um because I once tweeted something. It turned out that is still politically sensitive. Um and the entire continent. Um I stayed up all night that night as as I became front page headline and leading television news in each time zone in India for a single tweet. So like the single tweet out of context is a very dangerous thing. Um obviously X now has the the middle ground where they you know they they now have the longer form essays. Um, and so, um, you know, probably the most productive thing I can do is is is longer form, um, is is longer form things. Um,

[3:40:03] >> you're not going to do it though, are you? >> I do. I do from time to time. I think I should I should do more of them. >> And then, yeah, I mean, look, but and yeah, and then obviously X is X is doing great. And then, uh, like I said, like Substack, you know, has become the center for a lot, you know, a lot of the I think the best kind of, you know, deeply thought through, you know, certainly intellectual content. Um, you know, tons of current events, uh, stuff there as well. Um, and then, um, yeah. So, and then there's a bunch of other, you know, a bunch of new systems that are very exciting. So, I think one of the things we can look forward to in the next four years is number one, just like

[3:40:30] a massive reinvigoration of social media >> as a consequence of the changes that are happening right now. Uh, and very excited to see the con to see what's going to happen with that. And then, um, I it's happened on X, but it's now going to happen on other platforms. >> And then, um, the other is, um, crypto is going to come, you know, crypto is going to come right back to life. Um, and actually that's very exciting. Actually, that's worth noting is that's another trillion dollar question on AI, which is um in a world of pervasive AI and especially in a world of AI agents, and imagine a world of billions or trillions of AI agents running around, they need an economy. Um and crypto in our view happens to be the ideal

[3:41:06] economic system for that, right? Because it's a programmable money. It's a very easy way to plug in and do that. And there's this transaction processing system that can that can do that. And so, I think the crypto AI intersection, you know, is potentially very a very very big deal. Um, and so when that was that was going to be impossible under the prior regime, and I think under the new regime, hopefully it'll be something we can do. >> Uh, almost for fun, let me ask uh a friend of yours, Yan Lun, what are your top 10 favorite things about Yan Lun? [laughter] >> He's uh I think he's a he's a brilliant guy. I think he's important to the world. I think you guys disagree on a lot of things, but I

[3:41:42] personally like vigorous disagreement. I as a person in the stands like to watch the gladiators go at it. And >> no, he's a super genius. I mean, look, I wouldn't say if we're super close, but you know, casual casual friends. I I worked with him at Meta, you know, he's the chief scientist at Meta for a long time and is still, you know, works with us and and um you know, and as obviously he's a legendary figure in the field and one of the main people responsible for what's happening. Um I it's my serious observation would be that it's it's it's the thing I keep I've talked to him about for a long time and I keep trying to read and follow everything he does is he's probably he is the I think see if

[3:42:16] you agree with this he is the smartest and most credible critic of LLM is the path for AI. Um, and um, he's not, you know, there's certain, I would say, troll like characters who are just like crap on everything, but like Yan has like very deeply thought through basically um, theories as to why LMs are an evolutionary dead end. Um, and um, and I actually like um, I I try to do this thing where I try to model, you know, I try to have a mental model of like the two different sides of a serious argument. And so I I've tried to like internalize that argument as much as I can, which is difficult because like we're investing it behind LM as aggressively as we can. So if he's right, like that can be a big problem.

[3:42:52] But like we should also know that. Um and then I sort of use his ideas to challenge all the bullish people, you know, to really kind of test their level of knowledge. So I like to kind of grill people like I'm not like I'm not you know I'm I'm I was not you know I was got my CS degree 35 years ago. So I'm not like deep in the technology but like if if to the extent I can understand Yan's points I can use them to um you know to really surface a lot of the questions for the people who are more bullish. Um and that's been I think very very productive. Um yeah. So I yeah just it's very striking that you have somebody who is like that central in the space who is actually like a full-on a full-on skeptic and and you know and

[3:43:29] again as you this could go different ways. He could end up being very wrong. He could end up being totally right or it could be that he will provoke the evolution of these systems to be much better than they would have been. >> Yeah, he could be both right and wrong. I I first of all I do I do agree with that. He's one of the most legit and uh rigorous and deep critics of the LLM path to AGI. You know, his basic notion is that there needs AI needs to have some physical understanding of the physical world and that's very difficult to achieve with LLM. So there and that that is a really good way to challenge the limitations of LLMs and so on. He's also been a vocal and a huge proponent of open source

[3:44:10] which is a whole another which you have been as well >> which is very useful. Yeah. >> And that's been just fascinating to watch. >> And anti-doomer. >> Anti-doomer. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. He's >> he's very anti-doomer. >> He embodies. He also has many wolves inside. >> Yes, he does. Yes, he does. Yes, he does. [laughter] He does. >> So, it's been really really fun to watch. >> The other two Okay, here's my other wolf coming out. Yeah. The other two of the three godfathers of AI are like radicals like like full-on left you know far-left you know like they I would say like either Marxists or borderline Marxists um and they're like I think quite extreme in their social and political views and I think that feeds into their

[3:44:45] dumerism um and I think you know they they they are lobbying for like draconian government I think what would be ruinously destructive government legislation um and regulation and so it's it's actually super helpful super super helpful to have Jan as a counterpoint to those Another fun question. Uh, our mutual friend Andrew Huberman. First maybe what do you love most about Andrew? And second, what score on a scale of 1 to 10 do you think he would give you on your approach to health? >> Oh, three. >> Physical three. You think you score that high, huh? Okay. >> Exactly. >> 10. That's good. [laughter] >> Exactly. Well, so he he did he convinced me to stop drinking alcohol. Um, which was a big successfully.

[3:45:24] >> Well, it was like my fa other than my family, it was my favorite thing in the world. Yeah. >> And so it was a major major reduction. Like having like a glass of scotch at night was like a major like it was like the thing I would do to relax. And so he has profoundly negatively impacted my emotional health. >> Um [laughter] I uh I blame him for making me much less happy as a person, but much much much healthier. >> Yeah. >> Uh physically healthier. So that that I I credit him with that. I'm glad I did that. Um but then his sleep stuff, like yeah, I'm not doing any of that. >> Yeah. >> I have no interest in his sleep [ __ ] Like no this whole light, natural light. No, we're not doing that. >> You're too hardcore for this. I

[3:45:58] >> don't see any say I don't see any natural I don't see any natural light in here. >> It's all covered. >> It's all horrible. >> And I'm very happy. I would be very happy living and working here cuz I'm totally happy without natural light >> in darkness. >> Yes. >> It must be a metaphor for something. >> Yes. It's a test. Look, it's a test of manhood as to whether you could have a blue screen in your face for 3 hours and then go right to sleep. Like I don't understand why you should want to take shortcuts. >> Um I now understand what they mean by toxic masculinity. All right. So, uh, let's see. You're exceptionally successful by most measures, but what to you is the definition of success. >> I would probably say it is a combination

[3:46:43] of two things. I think it is um contribution. Um, so you know, have you done something that mattered ultimately? Um and um and you know and specifically it matter to people. Um and then the other thing is I think happiness is either overrated or almost a complete myth. Um and in fact interesting Thomas Jefferson did not mean happiness the way that we understand it when he said pursuit of happiness in the Declaration of Independence. He meant it more of the the Greek meaning um which is closer to satisfaction or fulfillment. Um, and so I [laughter] think happiness is so I think about happiness as the first the first ice cream cone makes you super happy. The first mile of the walk in the park and

[3:47:25] during sunset makes you super happy. The first kiss makes you super happy. The thousandth ice cream cone, not so much. Um, the thousandth mile of the walk through the park. Um, the thousandth kiss can still be good, but maybe just not right in a row. Um, right. And so happiness is this very fleeting concept. Um, and the people who anger on happiness seem to go off the rails pretty often. So did the deep sense of having been I don't know how to put it useful. >> So that's a good place to arrive at in life. >> Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I mean like can you sit can yeah you know who was it who said that all this the source of all the ills in the world is man's inability to sit in a room by himself doing nothing.

[3:48:10] Um, but like if you're sitting in a room by yourself and you're like, "All right," or, you know, 4 in the morning and it's like, "All right, have I like, you know, have I lived up to my expectation of myself, like if you have, you know, the people I know who feel that way are are pretty centered, um, and, um, you know, generally seem very, um, I don't know how to put it, pleased with, you know, proud, um, calm, at peace, um, the people who are, um, you know, sensation seekers. Um you know some of the sensations by the way some s you know there's there's certain entrepreneurs for example who are like in every form of extreme extreme sport and they get you know huge satisfaction out of that um or you know

[3:48:46] there's sensation seeking in sort of useful and productive ways you know Larry Ellison was always like that Zuckerberg's like that and then you know there's a lot of entrepreneurs who end up you know drugs [laughter] you know like sexual you know sexual escapades that seem like they'll be fun at first and then backfire. >> Yeah. But at the end of the day, if you're able to be at peace by yourself in a room at 4:00 a.m. >> Yeah. >> And I would even say happy, but I know I understand Thomas Jefferson didn't mean it the way the way maybe I mean it, but I can be happy about myself at 4:00 a.m. with a blue screen. >> That's good. Exactly. >> Staring at cursor. >> Exactly. As a small tangent, a quick shout out to

[3:49:29] an amazing interview you did with Barry Weiss and just to her in general, Barry Weiss of uh the free press. She has a podcast called Honestly with Bear Weiss. She's great. People should go listen. You were asked if you believe in God. One of the joys, see we talked about happiness. One of the things that makes me happy is making you uncomfortable. >> Thank you. So the this question is designed for many of the questions today are designed for that. You [snorts] were asked if you believe in God and you said after a pause that you're not sure. So it felt like the pause the uncertainty there was uh uh some kind of ongoing search for wisdom and meaning. Uh are you in fact searching for wisdom and meaning?

[3:50:14] >> I guess I put it this way. There's a lot to just understand about people that I feel like I'm only starting to understand. Um, and that's certainly a simpler concept than God. [laughter] So, um, that's what I spent a lot of the last, you know, 15 years trying to figure out. I feel like I spent my first like whatever 30 years figuring out machines and then now I'm spending 30 years figuring out people, which turns out to be quite a bit more complicated. Um, and then I don't know, maybe God's the last 30 years or something. Um uh and then you know look I mean just you know like like Elon is just like okay the known universe is like very you know complicated and you know mystifying. I mean every time I you know

[3:50:55] pull up an astronomy you know my kids get super in astronomy and it's like you know you know daddy how many galaxies are there in the universe and you know what's how many galaxies are there in the universe? >> 100 billion. >> Okay. Like how >> like how is that freaking possible? Like what? Like it's just it's such a staggering concept that I >> I actually wanted to show you a tweet that blew my mind from Elon from a while back. He said uh Elon said as a friend called it, this is the ultimate skill tree. This is a wall of galaxies, >> a billion light years across. >> Yeah. >> So these are all galaxies. >> Yeah. Like what the like how how is it that big? like how the hell like you know I can read the textbook and the

[3:51:39] this and the that and the whatever 8 billion years and the big bang and the whole thing and then it's just like all right wow and then it's like all right the big bang all right like what was what was before the big bang >> you think we'll ever we humans will ever colonize like a galaxy and maybe even go beyond >> sure I mean yeah I mean in the fullness of time yeah >> so you have that kind of optimism you have that kind of hope that extends across thousand >> in the fullness of time I mean yeah I mean yeah you know all the all the problem all the challenges with it that I do But like, yeah, why not? I mean, again, in the fullness of time, it'll it'll take a long time. >> You don't think we'll destroy ourselves?

[3:52:11] >> No, I I doubt it. I doubt it. And, you know, fortunately, we have Elon [laughter] giving us giving us the the backup plan. So, so I don't know. Like, I grew up, you know, rural Midwest sort of just like conventionally kind of Protestant Christian. Um, it never made that much sense to me. Got trained as an engineer and a scientist. I'm like, "Oh, that definitely doesn't make sense." I'm like, "I know. I'll spend my life as an empirical, you know, rationalist and I'll I'll figure everything out." And then, you know, and then again, you walk up against these things, you know, you you bump up against these things and you're just like, "All right, I like, okay, I guess there's a scientific explanation for this, but like, wow."

[3:52:44] Um, and then there's like, "All right, where did that come from?" Um, right. And then how how far back can you go on the causality chain? Um, yeah. And then, yeah, I mean, then even even just, you know, experiences that we all have on Earth, it's it's hard to it's hard to rationally explain it all. And then, you know, so yeah, I guess I just say I'm kind of radically open-minded. um at peace with the fact that I'll probably never know. Um the other thing though that's happened and maybe the more more practical answer to the question is um I think I have a much better understanding now of the role that religion plays in society that I didn't have when I was younger. Um and my partner Ben has a

[3:53:16] great I think he quotes his father on this. He's like if if a man does not have a real religion he makes up a fake one. Um and the fake ones go very very badly. Um and so there's this class it's actually really funny. There's this class of intellectual. There's this class of intellectual that has what appears to be a very patronizing point of view, which is yes, I'm an atheist, but it's very important that the people believe in something, right? And Mark's had like the negative view on that, which is religionist, OP to the masses, but there's a lot of like right-wing intellectuals who are themselves, I think, pretty atheist, agnostic, that are like it's deeply important that the people be Christian or or something like

[3:53:49] that. Um, and on the one hand it's like, wow, that's arrogant, presumptive. But on the other hand, you know, maybe it's right because, you know, what have we learned in the last hundred years is in the absence of a real religion, people will make up fake ones. Um, there's this writer, there's this political philosopher who's super interesting on this named Eric Boglin. And he wrote this, he wrote in the sort of mid mid part of the century, mid late part of the 20th century. He's like born in I think like 1900 and like died in like 85. So he saw the complete run of communism and and uh and Nazism and himself you know fled I think he fled Europe and and you know the whole thing. Um and um you know his his sort

[3:54:27] of big conclusion was basically that both communism and Nazism and fascism were were basically religions were were but like in the deep way of religions like they were you know he called them political religions but they they were like actual religions and you know they were the they were what Nze forecasted when he said you know God is dead we've killed him and we won't wash the blood off our hands for a thousand years right um is we will come up with new religions that will just cause just mass murder and death. Um, and like you you read his stuff now and you're like, "Yep, [clears throat] that happened." Right? And then of course as fully, you know, elite moderates, of course, we couldn't possibly be doing that to ourselves

[3:55:01] right now, but of course we are. And you know, I would argue that Eric Vogelan for sure would argue that the last 10 years, you know, we have been in a religious frenzy. You know, that that woke has been a full-scale religious frenzy. Um, and has had all of the characteristics of a religion, including everything from patron saints to holy texts to, you know, sin. It's said wokenness has said every aspect of a wokeness has said every I think it's said every single aspect of an actual religion other than redemption right which is maybe like the most dangerous religion you could ever come up with is the one where there's no forgiveness right so I think if Voggan were alive I think he would have zeroed right in on

[3:55:39] that would have said that um and you know we just like sailed right off I mentioned earlier like we we somehow rediscover the religions of the Indo-Uropeans were all into identity politics and environmentalism like I don't I think that's an accident. So, so anyway, like there there is something very deep going on in the human psyche um on religion that is not dismissible and needs to be taken seriously even if one struggles with the the um specifics of it. I think I speak for a lot of people that it's been a real joy and for me an honor to get to watch you uh seek to understand the human psyche as you described. You're in that 30-year part of your life. >> Um and it's been an honor to talk with

[3:56:25] you today. Thank you, Mark. >> Thank you, Alex. Is that it? That's only only how long is that? >> Four hours with uh Mark Andrew is like 40 hours of actual content. So >> I I I'll accept being one of the short ones. Uh for the [laughter] for the listener, Mark looks like he's ready to go for 20 more hours and I need a nap. [laughter] Thank you, Mark. >> Thank you, Lex. >> Thanks for listening to this conversation with Mark Andre. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Thomas Soul. It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.

[3:57:22] >> [music]