WEBVTT

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In terms of the AI piece, which is where
a lot of people are trying to figure out

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what to do, what do you think isn't
being priced in yet in terms of the

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impact AI is going to have on say
the world or just people listening?

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>> The I think I think at this point
I think it's pretty clear with it with,

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you know, our technology hats on that
like this stuff is really working now,

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right? And so there there was this, you
know, kind of, you know, when when there

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was a chat GPD moment, you know,
three years ago is only, by the way, only

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three years ago, right? That was the chat
GPD moment and and the big question

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was all right this this is like
incredibly fun and creative and like we

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have machines now that can compose
Shakespeare and silence and rap lyrics

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and like you know this is amazing
but then there was there you know there's

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this sort of this big question like can
you can you harness this technology for

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reasoning and for you know problem
solving and in domains that like really

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matter you know medicine and science
and and and law and so forth and and you

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know it turns out the answer to that is
yes right and you know the the last 12

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months and especially the last even just
the last three months have really proven

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that like AI can really do like you
I mean, you're seeing it all now. You

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know, you can actually, you know, AI
is now developing new math theorems. You

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know, there, you know, over the holiday
break, you know, there's sort of the

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what it feels like the AI coding thing,
you know, really hit critical mass. And

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the world's best, the world's best
programmers, right, including like Linus

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Turbalds, you know, for for the first
time over the holiday break, basically

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said, yeah, AI is now coding better than
we can. And so that, you know, that's

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that's incredibly incredibly powerful.

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And I think we we all, you know, kind of,
I think, assume that AI now is going

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to get really good at reasoning in in any
domain in which there are verifiable

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answers. So that that that you know
that's going to include like many very

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important domains. I think the thing
that is not well understood I I think a

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lot of people have a I think you know
a lot of people in the industry have kind

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of what I would describe as this
one-dimensional thing which is okay as a

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result of the technology not working AI
just kind of sweeps sweeps the world and

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changes everything. And I think that's
that's kind of the wrong that's kind of

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the wrong frame. I think it's based on
incomplete understanding of of the world

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that we live in or the world that we've
been living in for the last you know 80

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years. And I would call out two things
in particular. So one is it has I think

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it's felt to us like in the US and the
west for the last you know whatever 30

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years or 50 years it's felt like we've
been in a time of great technological

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change but actually if you look
for actually evidence of that like in stat

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in statistical evidence of that
analytical evidence of that like you

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basically can't find it and in
particular economists have a way of

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measuring the rate of technological
change in the economy that is

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productivity growth which which we could
talk about what that means but basically

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it's it's a it's sort of the mathematical
expression of the impact of

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technology on the economy
And productivity growth for the last 50

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years has actually been very low, not
very high. So we all feel like it's been

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very high. There's been lots
of technological change. What's actually

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happening is it's it's been very low.

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And in fact, the pace of productivity

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growth like in the US is is running at

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like a half of what it in my lifetime in

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our lifetimes it's been running at about

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a half the pace that it ran in between

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1940 and 1970. And so statistically in

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the US in the west technology progress
in the economy technology impact in the

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economy has actually slowed way down.

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And so we you know the AI thing
is is going to hit but it's hitting an

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environment in which we we have actually
had almost no technological progress in

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the actual economy for a very long time.

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So we could talk about that and then
there's this other like just incredible

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thing that's happening which is the
the you know sort the de demographic

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collapse right it's sort of a western
phenomenon and increasingly global

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phenomenon which is you know the rate
of reproduction of the human species is is

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in rapid decline and you know there are
many countries you know including the US

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where you know the rate of reproduction
is you know under two you know meaning

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meaning that you know many many
countries around the world by the way

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including China which is a really big
deal are actually going to depopulate

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over the next century um and so you have
this kind precondition that says there's

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actually been very little techn
technological progress happening in the

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world and the world is going
to depopulate and so AI is going to enter

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the world a world in which those two
things are true and I think it's inc

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this is incredibly important because we
actually need AI to work in order to get

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productivity growth up which is what
we need to get economic growth up and we

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actually need AI to work because we're
going to need you know we're going to

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need machines to do all the jobs
that we're not going to have people to do

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because we're we're literally going to
depopulate we're going to depopulate the

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planet over the next hundred years
and so I I think the interplay of these

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factors I is is going to be much more
interesting and and frankly more more

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more complex than a lot
of people have been thinking.