1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,597 In terms of the AI piece, which is where a lot of people are trying to figure out 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,197 what to do, what do you think isn't being priced in yet in terms of the 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,717 impact AI is going to have on say the world or just people listening? 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:13,757 >> The I think I think at this point I think it's pretty clear with it with, 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,037 you know, our technology hats on that like this stuff is really working now, 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,757 right? And so there there was this, you know, kind of, you know, when when there 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,797 was a chat GPD moment, you know, three years ago is only, by the way, only 8 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,597 three years ago, right? That was the chat GPD moment and and the big question 9 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,637 was all right this this is like incredibly fun and creative and like we 10 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,917 have machines now that can compose Shakespeare and silence and rap lyrics 11 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,877 and like you know this is amazing but then there was there you know there's 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,437 this sort of this big question like can you can you harness this technology for 13 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,717 reasoning and for you know problem solving and in domains that like really 14 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:45,117 matter you know medicine and science and and and law and so forth and and you 15 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,477 know it turns out the answer to that is yes right and you know the the last 12 16 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,197 months and especially the last even just the last three months have really proven 17 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,477 that like AI can really do like you I mean, you're seeing it all now. You 18 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,997 know, you can actually, you know, AI is now developing new math theorems. You 19 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,797 know, there, you know, over the holiday break, you know, there's sort of the 20 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,757 what it feels like the AI coding thing, you know, really hit critical mass. And 21 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,197 the world's best, the world's best programmers, right, including like Linus 22 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,077 Turbalds, you know, for for the first time over the holiday break, basically 23 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,197 said, yeah, AI is now coding better than we can. And so that, you know, that's 24 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,277 that's incredibly incredibly powerful. 25 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,077 And I think we we all, you know, kind of, I think, assume that AI now is going 26 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,677 to get really good at reasoning in in any domain in which there are verifiable 27 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,477 answers. So that that that you know that's going to include like many very 28 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,077 important domains. I think the thing that is not well understood I I think a 29 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,917 lot of people have a I think you know a lot of people in the industry have kind 30 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,477 of what I would describe as this one-dimensional thing which is okay as a 31 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,437 result of the technology not working AI just kind of sweeps sweeps the world and 32 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,117 changes everything. And I think that's that's kind of the wrong that's kind of 33 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,077 the wrong frame. I think it's based on incomplete understanding of of the world 34 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,717 that we live in or the world that we've been living in for the last you know 80 35 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,077 years. And I would call out two things in particular. So one is it has I think 36 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,917 it's felt to us like in the US and the west for the last you know whatever 30 37 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,957 years or 50 years it's felt like we've been in a time of great technological 38 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,877 change but actually if you look for actually evidence of that like in stat 39 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,757 in statistical evidence of that analytical evidence of that like you 40 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,517 basically can't find it and in particular economists have a way of 41 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,077 measuring the rate of technological change in the economy that is 42 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,117 productivity growth which which we could talk about what that means but basically 43 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,637 it's it's a it's sort of the mathematical expression of the impact of 44 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,317 technology on the economy And productivity growth for the last 50 45 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,317 years has actually been very low, not very high. So we all feel like it's been 46 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,397 very high. There's been lots of technological change. What's actually 47 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:27,837 happening is it's it's been very low. 48 00:02:27,920 --> 00:02:30,077 And in fact, the pace of productivity 49 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,797 growth like in the US is is running at 50 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,597 like a half of what it in my lifetime in 51 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,437 our lifetimes it's been running at about 52 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,557 a half the pace that it ran in between 53 00:02:40,640 --> 00:02:44,077 1940 and 1970. And so statistically in 54 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,157 the US in the west technology progress in the economy technology impact in the 55 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:49,757 economy has actually slowed way down. 56 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,437 And so we you know the AI thing is is going to hit but it's hitting an 57 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,797 environment in which we we have actually had almost no technological progress in 58 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,037 the actual economy for a very long time. 59 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,597 So we could talk about that and then there's this other like just incredible 60 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,557 thing that's happening which is the the you know sort the de demographic 61 00:03:04,640 --> 00:03:07,837 collapse right it's sort of a western phenomenon and increasingly global 62 00:03:07,920 --> 00:03:11,997 phenomenon which is you know the rate of reproduction of the human species is is 63 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,757 in rapid decline and you know there are many countries you know including the US 64 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,517 where you know the rate of reproduction is you know under two you know meaning 65 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,997 meaning that you know many many countries around the world by the way 66 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,757 including China which is a really big deal are actually going to depopulate 67 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,757 over the next century um and so you have this kind precondition that says there's 68 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,557 actually been very little techn technological progress happening in the 69 00:03:32,640 --> 00:03:37,597 world and the world is going to depopulate and so AI is going to enter 70 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,717 the world a world in which those two things are true and I think it's inc 71 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,317 this is incredibly important because we actually need AI to work in order to get 72 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,117 productivity growth up which is what we need to get economic growth up and we 73 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,917 actually need AI to work because we're going to need you know we're going to 74 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,557 need machines to do all the jobs that we're not going to have people to do 75 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,197 because we're we're literally going to depopulate we're going to depopulate the 76 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,157 planet over the next hundred years and so I I think the interplay of these 77 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,517 factors I is is going to be much more interesting and and frankly more more 78 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,360 more complex than a lot of people have been thinking.