WEBVTT

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Each viral social media meme explosion
is like a 2 and 1/2 day panic cycle.

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[music] It was not that long ago grown
men in serious positions of power and

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authority in the US got mad at each
other and would literally have a

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physical duel and that was like a normal
part of life. If you're sitting at home

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scrolling social media getting mad,
at least you're not out in the street like

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hurting people. The fact that political
violence is at like an all-time low in

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Western society is something that people
[music] really don't talk about. The

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news is called the news, not the
importance. If you can imagine a version

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of the news that's called the importance
[music] and and the newspaper is like

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here are all the important things that are
happening today. Nobody would buy it

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cuz nobody cares. Cuz people want the
news. They want the hot thing. They want

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the outrageous thing. Mark,
thank you for joining Monitoring

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the Situation. Good morning.
I could not be more

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excited. Let's monitor some situation.

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Excellent. Well, first we'll we'll get
a bit meta here and uh we'll talk about

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media. We've been uh talking about this
idea at Monitoring the Situation. We've

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talked about investing in it for almost

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a year now. Um and when we were first
talking about the idea, uh you had

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brought up the the book about the history
of CNN. And you actually uh you

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talked about this concept that
they had called Randomonium. Uh

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what did you find so interesting about
the the founding or the history of of

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CNN and how how it could apply to what
we're doing here or or this broader

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media moment? Yeah, so uh
so one is I'm old enough to

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remember when CNN started. Um although
I didn't actually have cable TV at the

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time so I didn't see it, but uh I
remember it and the impact that it had

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and then I because I'm an obsessive,
I there's this book at one point that

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nobody's read, but it's the book
is called Me and Ted Against the World.

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Uh which is a great title. So it's it's
uh the founder of CNN, this guy Reese

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Reese Schonfeld. Um and uh
he he basically he's actually

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the guy who who convinced Ted Turner
to go into the go into the satellite

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business which sort of created,
you know, my essentially modern, you know,

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cable TV uh satellite TV and then all
you know, led downstream to streaming

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and everything else going on today. And so
and you know, this has been kind of lost

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to history, but Ted Turner was like
a a great like amazing example of like

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exactly the kind of, you know, great
founder that we work with. Like just

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this like incredible world of power, you
know, very controversial character. Like

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every other thing out of his mouth
like horrified, like you you know, he

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generated a huge number of headlines
of like you know, I can't believe Ted said

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that. Um like over
and over and over again. So

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like one one of these one of the one
of these real characters in the in the

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history of the media business. Uh
and then this guy Reese Schonfeld who was

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originally the lawyer that that wired up
Ted's first first first first satellite

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deal and and so the the two of them came
up with this crazy idea like I forget

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like 1981 or something. And they said,
"How about having a 24-hour news

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channel?" Right? And and and this at
the time was like just like a completely

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loopy idea. Uh actually uh Ted Ted
Turner wanted to be a 15-hour a day news

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channel cuz he assumed that there would
be nobody watching overnight, you know,

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that the 9 hours overnight. And Reese
was like, "Nope, 24 hours. People are

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going to stay up all
night to watch this thing."

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Um and the idea was uh by the
way completely alien to what

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CNN is today. Uh the the idea
was was was this concept

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that Reese Schonfeld came up with called
Randomonium which basically says at any

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point in time there is like whatever
there there is something happening in

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the world that is like the most amazing,
interesting, controversial, bonkers,

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compelling, transfixing
thing that you can imagine.

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Um and you know >> The current thing.

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>> The current thing. The current thing.

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Exactly. The current thing.
At any moment in time there's the current

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thing. And so he's like, "What should
a 24-hour news channel be? Obviously, it

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should be the thing it's right
Obviously, what it should do is it

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should lock onto the current thing.
It should then cover the current thing

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continuously, right? For as many minutes,
hours, or days as that thing is

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the current thing."
Uh and then he called it Randomonium cuz

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he basically said for that period you just
put whatever you get you put on screen.

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Um and so you get whatever fragmentary
reports or man-on-the-street interviews

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or like you know, what what whatever it
is, you just like slap the thing on the

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screen and like if you know, if you get
it wrong, you apologize later, but like

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you know, we're you know, this is you're
real time, it's live. Um and then you

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just people are just going to be glued
to this thing. And actually that So

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okay, so that was the
original CNN business plan.

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They they then they then you know, they
took a while to get up and running, but

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then they they actually did implement
this and the the for for our older

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viewers will will remember as I do that it
was the real breakthrough point was

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the 1991 Gulf War. The first
invasion of Iraq and the and

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that was the thing that really caused
the whole thing to punch through and

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there was like a week there. Where
basically just like you were just people

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were just glued to CNN around the clock
cuz they had you know it was like

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literally live on the ground coverage
of like you know they were in Baghdad you

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know with like bombing raids happening
all kinds of crazy stuff and the Iraqi

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government like just the whole thing.
It was so it was just like the most

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incredible show in the world and then
quite honestly they spent the next you

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know whatever 20 years you know
basically trying to trying to you know

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repeat that experience and they they
repeated it every now and then with like

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the Monica Lewinsky thing was that for a
while and the OJ OJ trial was that for a

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little bit but. It was just kind of hard
to come up with with with the next thing

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like that and then and then you know
over the last 20 years you know CNN has

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kind of become something you know
completely different today let's say.

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That's not that at all and then
basically what's happened is the

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internet reinvented randomonium. And so
right the experience of monitoring the

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situation on especially you know on on
social media and especially of course on

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X. Right specifically right and then
by the way also streaming right

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the you know the other the other part
of it is streaming and now there's

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obviously streaming on X but also you
know streaming on other platforms you

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know YouTube and Twitch and so forth
and so the internet reinvented this and

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right so randomonium turned into you know
the current thing and then monitoring the

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situation you know legitimately
justifiably became a a giant meme and so

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it is time yes it is clearly
time to monitor the situation.

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Why do we think the amount of current

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things or randomonium or situations just

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is continuously accelerating

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it it seems like it's you know just the

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the amount your velocity
of these moments just

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keeps on increasing how
do we make sense of that?

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Yeah so I think there's really two
two things that have happened that are

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really different and even you know
different than the days of cable TV and

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24 hour news so one is just
like the internet for

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better or for worse like the internet
plugs you into the world, right? Like

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the internet plugs you in. >> McLuhan.

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>> yes. Uh Marshall McLuhan,
okay, so let's cite

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Marshall McLuhan actually for both
of these. So Marshall McLuhan, who was the

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great media media theorist of the 20th
century, yeah, he had two key concepts

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so that are relevant here. So one
is the global village. And so he had this

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concept of the global village and the
concept of the global village, by the

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way, he did not view as a positive.

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Like he was not endorsing he was just in
his mind he was making an observation of

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what was happening, which is basically
basically what he meant by that is you

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you need to conceive of what he meant
by village to start with. So so village

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basically means a community with a small
enough number of people where everybody

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knows everybody else. So like think
about a small town or you know, a a

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literal small village and everybody
knows everybody else and as a

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consequence of that there's no privacy.

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Right. And and and basically everybody's
up in each other's business all the

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time. Um and I and and I grew up
in a small enough town, uh you know, in a

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rural town where I you know,
I I experienced this. I I saw what it was

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like and it was like that. Everybody
knows everybody else. By the way, it's

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the same people year after year after
year. You like get to know them like way

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too well. Everybody's completely up
in each up in each other's business. Like

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there's basically no privacy. Um and so
you know, and by the way, one of the

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reasons people leave small towns to go
to the big city is cuz they want to get

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you know, they want to get away from that.
They want to they want to get to a

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level of anonymity and and and have
a lot more, you know, people running

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around. But but the village kind of has
that specific thing. And what he said

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was basically modern media is going to
turn the entire world into a village. Um

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and so you're just going to be connected
and this is, you know, pre-internet when

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he said this, right?
Um but you know, it's really happened

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with the internet where it's just like,
okay, you're connected to everybody all

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the time. Um and and and and by the way,
like by default, um you know, he would

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find this to be like a a very
entertaining thing that this is actually

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happening cuz he he would say, of course
you're getting all the downstream

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effects that you're getting, which
is by default it's it's it's going to melt

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your brain, right? Like the the
human animal was not evolved the

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human animal was evolved to have like,
you know, there's a Dunbar's number. You

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can basically have a direct relationship
with like 150 people. It's sort of

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famously called the Dunbar number
in sociology. Um but the global village

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expects you to have a Dunbar number
of like eight billion people, right? Like

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Like cuz cuz they're all right there and
they're all up in your grill, right? And

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they're all telling you what they think
of you and they're all like cursing at

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you and calling you names. Like and so
it's just like this like really really

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brain melting experience. Um so so
that that's part one. Um so we just we

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experience reality differently uh
as a result of that. And so the the the

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thought experiment I I always have is,
you know, we we talk a lot about the

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impact of the internet social media
on politics. It's like uh well, okay, like

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imagine having social
media during World War II.

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Right? Like we would have had
a completely different national uh

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experience. Um you know, had like
Pearl Harbor happened with like Twitter?

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Like it like it would
have been a completely

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different experience than the way people
lived through, you know, Pearl Harbor in

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in in in in actually 1941 with, you know,
with primarily with TV and radio.

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And so anyway, so there there's a global
village thing. And then there's this

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other thing that he said, which he
originally said about television.

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He made this key observation. He said
this is part of his thing where he said

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the medium is the message. So
the the actual medium of the of the media

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technology actually determines a lot of
the message of what's received. Uh a lot

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of the content. And and and specifically
he said this thing. He said, "If it's on

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television, it's a television show."

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Um and what he meant by that is if
something's going to be on television,

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it's going to end up being turned
into the equivalent of like a half-hour

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comedy or an hour-long drama. Right?

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Basically, you know, the two native
media forms of of television are the

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half-hour comedy or the hour-long drama.

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Um and so you're you're going to get
this basically very emotion You're going

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to get this very polished and sort
of glossy and produced thing that's going

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to it's going to be a story and it's
going to run the way that a television

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story runs or a television show runs.

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Um and it's going to and and like
and every television show is like a it's a

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every television show is like a morality
play, right? Every television show

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basically tells a moral story of basically
people behaving badly and then

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and then learning the error of their
ways and then, you know, then famously

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you have like, you know, the happy
ending, right? Uh where everybody you

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know, kisses and hugs.
Um and remember Seinfeld was like a huge

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variation of that because remember
the the motto of Seinfeld, Larry David's

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motto for Seinfeld was no
learning, no hugging.

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Um and it was it was what made Seinfeld
so unique cuz every other television

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show up until Seinfeld always ended with
everybody learning and hugging, right?

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You learn the moral lesson and then you
you you sort of reconcile with with the

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people close to you. And so every every
real life experience would get wedged

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into the format of a television show and
would be turned into like this basically

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this basically this morality play.

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Okay, so the internet version I I
believe the internet version of if it's

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on television, it's a television show.

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The internet version is if it's on the
internet, it's a viral social media meme.

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Uh right. If if if it's on the internet,
it doesn't matter what it is. By the

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way, if an alien invasion
happens later this afternoon,

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it will be turned into a social media
meme. Like like like and it will go

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viral. And that and that's what will
happen. Right? And it will be turned

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into a viral meme and it will spread
virally across the thing and then and

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then, you know, human beings what they
are, that will turn into a moral panic.

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You know, that that'll turn into
a full-fledged like outright, you know,

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outrage and how dare you and people
will line up on each side and you sort of

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tribes will form and then people will
go to war with each other on social media

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and you'll have all these, you know,
basically back and forth. You know, all

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all of this all of this, you know, all
all both all the humor and all the rage

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of of kind of how how
how meme culture works.

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And so so everything on the internet
basically whatever happens in the real

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world becomes like a social media
basically social media viral moment um

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meme uh complex and then, you know,
basically moral panic. Um and you know,

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search for scapegoats. Um right? Like
a moral emergency. And and and and that

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happens to every single new that happens.
Right? And so and then you

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combine these two and it's like, okay,
for better or for worse, we're all in

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the same room now. We're like literally
in the same global village and we're

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sort of surfing controversial internet
meme moments over and over and over and

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over again. And as far as I can tell, like
if you look at the numbers, basically what

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happens is each viral social media meme
explosion, it basically is this huge

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spike up and then it's like this half-life
decay and it lasts about 2 and 1/2 days.

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Uh right. And so each social media
basically experience is like a 2 and 1/2

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day basically panic cycle. Um and and
then what happens is the old one isn't

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necessarily ever like resolved
or reconciled, but what happens is a new

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one appears, a new current thing appears,
right? And and just takes over

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the the the you know, takes over
the outrage, right? And all the emotional

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energy that applied to the old one
apply applies to the new one. Everybody

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forgets the old one even happened. Like
a week later, you can't even remember like

00:11:48.600 --> 00:11:53.357
What was the social media
like craze of like 7 days ago?

00:11:53.440 --> 00:11:54.917
I mean, it might as well have been like

00:11:55.000 --> 00:11:57.597
a thousand years ago. Like lost to the

00:11:57.680 --> 00:12:01.997
mists of time. Nobody knows like 7
days ago whatever it was was the most

00:12:02.080 --> 00:12:03.997
important thing that's ever happened.

00:12:04.080 --> 00:12:07.557
And 7 days later, it's like it never it
never not not even a peep. Like nothing

00:12:07.640 --> 00:12:11.317
is it's like completely gone. Um,
and so you just you're just going to

00:12:11.400 --> 00:12:14.837
have this like basically repeated sort
of you know, emotional shotgun blast

00:12:14.920 --> 00:12:18.037
over and over every 2 and 1/2 days,
you know, essentially forever. By the way,

00:12:18.120 --> 00:12:20.757
this is like this is why one of my
theories is like it's not possible to

00:12:20.840 --> 00:12:23.557
predict the outcome of politics. So like
it's everybody thinks they know what's

00:12:23.640 --> 00:12:26.357
going to happen in the midterm elections
in November. And I'm like, okay, it's

00:12:26.440 --> 00:12:28.197
now whatever. It's it's it's April 20th.

00:12:28.280 --> 00:12:31.117
It's April 20th that the election
is whatever, November 6th

00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:34.797
or whatever. All right, how many 2
and 1/2 day cycles are there between April

00:12:34.880 --> 00:12:38.517
20th and November 6th? And I you know,
the the math majors you know, be able to

00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:40.757
calculate that in their head, but it's
I don't know 100 or something, right? Or

00:12:40.840 --> 00:12:45.197
120 or something like that.
Like whatever is the thing that we think

00:12:45.280 --> 00:12:47.877
is the thing that's going
to tilt the election today,

00:12:47.960 --> 00:12:51.477
it's going to be a hundred social media
meme cycles old. Like nobody's going to

00:12:51.560 --> 00:12:54.797
remember anything that's happening
right now. The election is going to turn

00:12:54.880 --> 00:12:57.117
basically on like whatever's happening
in the economy and then it's going to be

00:12:57.200 --> 00:13:01.957
whatever is like the viral meme
panic that's happening like that day.

00:13:02.040 --> 00:13:05.957
And so and and you could say like
is this good or bad? I don't know. Is this

00:13:06.040 --> 00:13:09.317
better or worse than television? I
don't know. By the way, is this better or

00:13:09.400 --> 00:13:12.677
worse than the days of radio or the days
of you know, I don't know the Pritchard

00:13:12.760 --> 00:13:14.677
you know, the the revolution
that followed the you

00:13:14.760 --> 00:13:18.157
know, the the arrival of of good the
printing press? Is this better or worse

00:13:18.240 --> 00:13:20.597
than the days in which you know, we
were all reciting epic poetry around the

00:13:20.680 --> 00:13:23.637
campfire as our former media? I don't
know. You could have like a big value

00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:25.957
discussion about you know,
which is better or worse.

00:13:26.040 --> 00:13:28.717
Um, I I have an argument I will make
that this notwithstanding all the

00:13:28.800 --> 00:13:32.117
craziness this is better. But like this
is the nature of the world we live in um

00:13:32.200 --> 00:13:33.757
and it it let put it this way.

00:13:33.840 --> 00:13:37.757
This is we're now on autopilot.
Like the the the the shape of the media

00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:40.757
determines the behavior basically
from here on out and and until there's

00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:44.397
something that fundamentally displaces
uh social media like this is the world

00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:47.677
we live in. Hence the need
to monitor the situation.

00:13:47.760 --> 00:13:51.277
>> Amen. Is the reason why you think
it's better is because even though there's

00:13:51.360 --> 00:13:55.477
more noise, there's more signal and as
kind of a collective global brain we get

00:13:55.560 --> 00:13:59.957
closer to the truth or So I I
would say this um we get so a

00:14:00.040 --> 00:14:02.397
couple things. Yeah,
so one is look I would say there

00:14:02.480 --> 00:14:06.477
you could say this there are more truth
and more lies. Right? I so so so I would

00:14:06.560 --> 00:14:09.517
say that it's it's both of the following
statements are true which is there's

00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:11.917
more truth in social media than we had
in previous forms of media and they're

00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:15.277
probably probably I mean old media had
a lot of lies by the way. So it's it's

00:14:15.360 --> 00:14:17.717
hard to say there are more lies. But
let's just say there are plenty of lies

00:14:17.800 --> 00:14:20.357
in social media. Like there are plenty
you know plenty of ops and in in fact

00:14:20.440 --> 00:14:23.517
one of one of the one of the native
forms of entertainment of social media

00:14:23.600 --> 00:14:27.957
is trying to spot the ops.
Um by the way maybe I should pitch you a

00:14:28.040 --> 00:14:31.557
show for on MTS which is you know maybe
every day we should do an hour on let's

00:14:31.640 --> 00:14:34.837
spot the ops right? Like what you know
which ones are real and organic which

00:14:34.920 --> 00:14:37.397
ones you know which ones are
staged You know was somebody getting

00:14:37.480 --> 00:14:41.037
paid behind the scenes. Um and so you
know and everybody of course focuses on

00:14:41.120 --> 00:14:43.437
the downside and so they focus on the
fact that there's all this all the all

00:14:43.520 --> 00:14:46.357
the all these ops and which
is certainly true. But there's also just

00:14:46.440 --> 00:14:49.877
like the ability for somebody to tell
the truth is like much more direct and

00:14:49.960 --> 00:14:51.957
clear uh than it was before right?

00:14:52.040 --> 00:14:54.717
Because of because of the you know the
the collapse of the gatekeepers. And so

00:14:54.800 --> 00:14:58.517
I I I think both of those are true. So
I think that's true and then but the the

00:14:58.600 --> 00:15:01.557
slightly different argument
that I would make um

00:15:01.640 --> 00:15:04.997
is that uh previous forms of media
were really good at generating physical

00:15:05.080 --> 00:15:09.317
violence. Um and so um
the the I mean there's many

00:15:09.400 --> 00:15:12.477
many examples of this in history but the
Spanish the Spanish Civil War um which

00:15:12.560 --> 00:15:16.037
was kind of the the the war that kind of
pre forecasted everything that was going

00:15:16.120 --> 00:15:20.317
to all this sort of tragedy of the of
the 20th century that followed um you

00:15:20.400 --> 00:15:22.717
know the Spanish Civil War was kind
of basically the test bed for both

00:15:22.800 --> 00:15:24.797
communism and Nazism uh, in the modern

00:15:24.880 --> 00:15:27.557
world. Um, and um, uh, and uh, you know,

00:15:27.640 --> 00:15:30.077
it it's native media format was posters.

00:15:30.160 --> 00:15:33.597
Um, and so you literally it was like
the idea the the ability to cut printed

00:15:33.680 --> 00:15:36.477
color propaganda posters was like
the new media technology at that time like

00:15:36.560 --> 00:15:39.357
you right before radio. Um,
and the Spanish Civil War was like

00:15:39.440 --> 00:15:43.117
super violent. Um, and then radio was
the technology that led to um, you know,

00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:46.717
radio was was was the Nazi regime's
native media format. Radio was the way

00:15:46.800 --> 00:15:49.917
that basically the the fascist
regimes got established.

00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:53.837
Um, uh, as well as by the way as well
as FDR uh, you know, was was was primarily

00:15:53.920 --> 00:15:56.677
a radio phenomenon. Um, you know, kind
of the rise of modern, you know, kind of

00:15:56.760 --> 00:15:58.797
you know, it's kind
of modern modern liberalism.

00:15:58.880 --> 00:16:02.277
Um, and then, you know, television,
you know, was the native media medium of

00:16:02.360 --> 00:16:05.397
like you just, you know, television kind
of kicked in starting around World War

00:16:05.480 --> 00:16:08.077
II. So it played a role, but it it then,
you know, television had a huge role to

00:16:08.160 --> 00:16:11.637
play in in the Vietnam War. Um,
and then in all of the violent riots

00:16:11.720 --> 00:16:14.637
of the '60s and '70s, you know, which
were kind of you know, super crazy both,

00:16:14.720 --> 00:16:17.797
you know, across the US and Europe.
Um, and so you know, tell television has a

00:16:17.880 --> 00:16:21.877
long history of of leading
leading to downstream violence. Um,

00:16:21.960 --> 00:16:26.037
you know, the fact that we haven't
actually had like the the the fact that

00:16:26.120 --> 00:16:29.317
like political violence is at like
an all-time low in Western society is

00:16:29.400 --> 00:16:32.757
something that people really don't talk
about. Um, and it feels like we must be

00:16:32.840 --> 00:16:36.237
in this like super politically violent
world because everybody's so angry about

00:16:36.320 --> 00:16:39.437
politics all the time, but like measured
political violence is is at like an

00:16:39.520 --> 00:16:43.997
all-time low. And so so my theory is the
the ability to directly participate in

00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:47.677
online virtual combat uh, is shunting
away a lot of the energy that in the

00:16:47.760 --> 00:16:50.797
past would have would have
translated to street violence.

00:16:50.880 --> 00:16:54.437
And so and so I so it's it's sort
of this thing is if if the virtual world

00:16:54.520 --> 00:16:57.757
can become arbitrarily rhetorically
violent without people actually getting

00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:01.317
physically hurt. And that gives people
a way to exercise all of their anger and

00:17:01.400 --> 00:17:04.917
rage over politics and to be able
to attack, you know, the the hated enemy

00:17:05.000 --> 00:17:07.117
uh, without having it actually be
something that translates to physical

00:17:07.200 --> 00:17:10.477
violence. Um, and so so yeah,
my it's like I don't

00:17:10.560 --> 00:17:13.397
know, social media wars up,
you know, physical violence down.

00:17:13.480 --> 00:17:15.717
Nobody wants to hear that cuz
everybody's so mad all the time about

00:17:15.800 --> 00:17:18.957
what's happening online, but but I think
that that's character Like, if you're

00:17:19.040 --> 00:17:21.597
sitting at home scrolling social media
getting mad, like at least you're not

00:17:21.680 --> 00:17:23.197
out on the street like hurting people.

00:17:23.280 --> 00:17:25.997
So, that's my That's my moral defense
of the whole thing. Well, it's fascinating

00:17:26.080 --> 00:17:30.357
because there's kind of a different kind
of ideological sorting happening cuz cuz

00:17:30.440 --> 00:17:33.837
people you you say things like, "Hey,
you know, now they can't even talk to

00:17:33.920 --> 00:17:36.877
their own families cuz they've sort
of found their tribe online that it that

00:17:36.960 --> 00:17:41.917
agrees with them." Uh and uh you know,
it's it's no longer the people they

00:17:42.000 --> 00:17:44.357
it's it's no longer their families
and and back in the day, you know, you

00:17:44.440 --> 00:17:49.277
didn't have as as much uh po- po- this
or the the logic goes, as much political

00:17:49.360 --> 00:17:52.757
polarization of the idea that I can't
even talk to someone not not from the

00:17:52.840 --> 00:17:56.477
same side. Pa- Part of that perhaps is
because the internet allows them to find

00:17:56.560 --> 00:18:01.437
their tribe so, you know, so strongly
and so clearly that they're able to uh

00:18:01.520 --> 00:18:05.157
you know, have an exclusionary
tribe as well. But, I guess

00:18:05.240 --> 00:18:07.317
one response to political polarization

00:18:07.400 --> 00:18:12.277
argument uh is that, "Hey, at least
it's not going to uh you know, leading to

00:18:12.360 --> 00:18:16.037
physical combat." Uh wh- what
might you say more broadly? Is

00:18:16.120 --> 00:18:19.517
is it just overstated in general because
people also have this idea of filter

00:18:19.600 --> 00:18:23.757
bubbles, too. But, uh of course, it in
some ways it's the opposite in the sense

00:18:23.840 --> 00:18:28.637
that the internet exposes you to ideas
that you wouldn't have seen otherwise.

00:18:28.720 --> 00:18:31.557
Right. Yeah, so I think people just have
a really rose-colored glasses view of

00:18:31.640 --> 00:18:35.717
the past. The The past gets sanded off
like in part cuz we only interpret the

00:18:35.800 --> 00:18:38.397
pa- you know, a number one is we we
weren't there. And then the modern

00:18:38.480 --> 00:18:41.077
interpreters of the past, you know, are
often quite honestly not telling us the

00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:43.597
truth about what happened because they
they have their own modern kind of, you

00:18:43.680 --> 00:18:45.637
know, gloss or spin
they want to put on it.

00:18:45.720 --> 00:18:49.277
Um and so uh but just the edges
of the past gets sanded off in in in

00:18:49.360 --> 00:18:52.597
retrospect. But, it's just like it's
really significant like if you just

00:18:52.680 --> 00:18:55.317
Like the easiest thing to do easiest
thing is just go go on YouTube and watch

00:18:55.400 --> 00:18:58.077
old episodes of a TV show
called All All in the Family.

00:18:58.160 --> 00:19:02.077
Um which was a which was a a very uh
a very famous uh successful TV show when I

00:19:02.160 --> 00:19:06.957
was a kid. Um and All in the Family
was a microcosm uh fictional microcosm of

00:19:07.040 --> 00:19:09.997
basically the culture wars, political
wars of the of the late '60s into the

00:19:10.080 --> 00:19:14.917
1970s. Um and it was like, you know
there's famously this this character

00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:17.837
Archie Bunker who sort
of represented, you know, this

00:19:17.920 --> 00:19:20.477
is white guy and he he basically
represent great brilliant actor named

00:19:20.560 --> 00:19:25.157
Carroll O'Connor played him and he
basically played a retrograde basically

00:19:25.240 --> 00:19:28.517
Republican, you know, Nixon supporting
Republican in this would be in like I

00:19:28.600 --> 00:19:30.997
don't know 1972 or something 1974.

00:19:31.080 --> 00:19:34.157
Um who just basically was was was
painted in the show as like the most

00:19:34.240 --> 00:19:39.477
backwards like basically archaic,
you know, knuckle dragging racist, sexist,

00:19:39.560 --> 00:19:43.037
just like the worst possible person
in the world. And then there was his

00:19:43.120 --> 00:19:48.517
son-in-law played by young Rob Reiner who

00:19:48.600 --> 00:19:53.277
who Archie Bunker nicknamed Meathead. Um
which is what the character became known

00:19:53.360 --> 00:19:57.877
as and and and Meathead was basically
just the arch progressive liberal, right?

00:19:57.960 --> 00:19:59.837
You know, sort of like you know,
think I don't know young Gavin Newsom or

00:19:59.920 --> 00:20:02.557
something, right? Where he just like
he had just like the exact politically

00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:05.677
correct approved view of the time and so
he's like, you know, super at the time,

00:20:05.760 --> 00:20:08.597
you know, the equivalent then of super
woke, super progressive, you know, super

00:20:08.680 --> 00:20:12.197
liberal, super enlightened on uh on all
these issues. And and the the conceit of

00:20:12.280 --> 00:20:15.717
the show, you know, and the guy who
did create the show is this famous

00:20:15.800 --> 00:20:18.517
television producer named Norman Lear
and the conceit of the show was supposed

00:20:18.600 --> 00:20:21.757
to be a moral it was supposed to be
a moral lesson of Meathead giving

00:20:21.840 --> 00:20:25.637
basically moral lectures to Archie
Bunker every week to try to get Archie

00:20:25.720 --> 00:20:28.637
Bunker to stop being such
a backwards-looking like 1950s retrograde

00:20:28.720 --> 00:20:31.757
basically racist sexist guy and and come
into the modern world. And of course

00:20:31.840 --> 00:20:34.517
what happened was Carroll O'Connor
number one the actor was just like super

00:20:34.600 --> 00:20:37.957
funny. Uh but the other was the the
political environment was superheated at

00:20:38.040 --> 00:20:40.237
that point and and of course it turned
out Archie Bunker ended up being the

00:20:40.320 --> 00:20:43.757
star of the show.
Uh and and so the the show ended up

00:20:43.840 --> 00:20:47.637
being the opposite of kind of what what
it was intended to be. Uh that happened

00:20:47.720 --> 00:20:50.597
later in the 80s it happened
in the show called Family Ties

00:20:50.680 --> 00:20:54.357
which was again it was a very similar
thing which it was it was these two

00:20:54.440 --> 00:20:59.437
parents baby boomer parents in the 80s
and they were like super, you know, very

00:20:59.520 --> 00:21:01.997
left-wing producers who made the show
and the characters were like super

00:21:02.080 --> 00:21:04.717
proper left-wing progressive. And then
there was this character in the show

00:21:04.800 --> 00:21:09.357
Michael J. Fox their their son who
was this teenage kid, um and um he played

00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:11.437
the I forget the name I'm I'm blanking
on the name of the character, but he

00:21:11.520 --> 00:21:14.677
played played the son. And the son
basically was a Reagan Republican as a

00:21:14.760 --> 00:21:17.477
teenager, right? And and literally
the son would like wear like sport jackets

00:21:17.560 --> 00:21:20.157
and ties to school and carry a briefcase.
And they kind of wanted to

00:21:20.240 --> 00:21:23.277
make him into like a stereotype of like
basically uh you know, sort of a weird

00:21:23.360 --> 00:21:26.797
Republican, you know, kind of weirdo.
Um and again, the same the same sort of

00:21:26.880 --> 00:21:29.877
weird thing happened, which is actually
the Michael J. Fox character became Oh,

00:21:29.960 --> 00:21:34.517
uh Alex Alex Keaton was Alex uh was the
character's name. Uh Alex P. Keaton, um

00:21:34.600 --> 00:21:37.957
you know, he essentially became the star
of the show. And so I bring up both of

00:21:38.040 --> 00:21:40.997
those shows cuz you can see in those
shows you can see the culture wars of

00:21:41.080 --> 00:21:43.917
the '70s, which were actually like super
intense. You can see the culture wars of

00:21:44.000 --> 00:21:45.757
the '80s, which were super intense.

00:21:45.840 --> 00:21:49.037
You go back before that and you have
the Vietnam War and the the all the campus

00:21:49.120 --> 00:21:52.277
protests and the civil rights movement
and all the riots and all the forced you

00:21:52.360 --> 00:21:55.197
know, everything, you know, dropping the
101st Airborne into you know, rural you

00:21:55.280 --> 00:21:58.317
know, the rural South to you know,
basically, you know, desegregate the

00:21:58.400 --> 00:22:02.557
schools at literally gunpoint. Um you go
back before that, you have the Cold War,

00:22:02.640 --> 00:22:05.317
you know, you have the Red Scare, um you
know, it's now known as the Red Scare,

00:22:05.400 --> 00:22:07.477
but you had, you know, communists all
through the US government and you had

00:22:07.560 --> 00:22:10.837
all kinds of freak outs about that.
You had the risk of nuclear annihilation.

00:22:10.920 --> 00:22:14.757
You go back before that, you had World
War II, which was like this like just like

00:22:14.840 --> 00:22:18.157
incredible global orgy of violence.
You go back before that, you had the Great

00:22:18.240 --> 00:22:20.877
Depression and the you know, the New
Deal, which was hugely controversial.

00:22:20.960 --> 00:22:23.877
You go back before that, you had World
War World War I, you know, and then you

00:22:23.960 --> 00:22:26.237
go and then you know, if you keep going
back, it's like you have the Civil War

00:22:26.320 --> 00:22:28.397
and then you have the Napoleonic
Wars and then you've got the French

00:22:28.480 --> 00:22:31.717
Revolution and you know, and then you
go back further than that, you've got the

00:22:31.800 --> 00:22:35.197
you know, the the democratic revolutions
uh all through Europe and then you've

00:22:35.280 --> 00:22:38.317
got the you know, the the Gutenberg
printing press kicking off all kinds of

00:22:38.400 --> 00:22:40.077
violence, you know, throughout Europe in

00:22:40.160 --> 00:22:43.357
the 1600s. Um and so I just think like

00:22:43.440 --> 00:22:48.037
the history of Western civilization,
American European society is just like

00:22:48.120 --> 00:22:51.917
constant strife and warfare to like
an absurd degree um over this entire

00:22:52.000 --> 00:22:54.917
period. And we we go back and we study
the history and we're just kind of like,

00:22:55.000 --> 00:22:59.357
"Wow, like those people were like really
really really violent. Like really crazy

00:22:59.440 --> 00:23:03.717
and really violent." And boy,
did they really like killing.

00:23:03.800 --> 00:23:06.877
It was not that long ago and I don't
think there's anybody alive now, but it

00:23:06.960 --> 00:23:10.877
was not that long ago that like grown
men like in serious positions of power

00:23:10.960 --> 00:23:13.277
and authority in the US that they got
mad at each other, they would literally

00:23:13.360 --> 00:23:17.037
have a physical duel. Right?
Like so you know, you and I you

00:23:17.120 --> 00:23:19.597
and I start going at it on social media
and we get to a point where you get

00:23:19.680 --> 00:23:22.917
really mad and I challenge you to a
duel and like we show up in a field

00:23:23.000 --> 00:23:26.757
in a park, you know, at like 6:00
in the morning with guns, right?

00:23:26.840 --> 00:23:29.917
And we like square off and march off
and then we turn around and we try to like

00:23:30.000 --> 00:23:31.917
literally shoot each other to death.

00:23:32.000 --> 00:23:36.357
And like a thing that they did
and that was like a normal part of life.

00:23:36.440 --> 00:23:39.197
Wait, Mark, I thought the past was all
matriarchies and everyone just so

00:23:39.280 --> 00:23:42.517
peaceful and Oh, everybody was so
wonderful. Everybody got along.

00:23:42.600 --> 00:23:45.637
Everybody all Yes, until social media
everybody thought the same thing.

00:23:45.720 --> 00:23:48.677
Yes, exactly and everybody was all Yes,
everybody was all calm and happy all the

00:23:48.760 --> 00:23:53.117
time. Um and so You look,
the the the the the the way

00:23:53.200 --> 00:23:55.917
the way the way the world is conflict
I just historically the way the world is

00:23:56.000 --> 00:24:00.197
conflict and anyway, not to not
to beat a dead horse, but they you know,

00:24:00.280 --> 00:24:02.837
There was plenty of conflict in the past.
There were plenty of heated

00:24:02.920 --> 00:24:05.117
disagreements in the future shape
of society. There were plenty of political

00:24:05.200 --> 00:24:06.717
wars. There were plenty of violent wars.

00:24:06.800 --> 00:24:09.517
By the way, just politics itself
was much more violent. Like if you go back

00:24:09.600 --> 00:24:11.917
and you read about political movements
100 years ago, like they would literally

00:24:12.000 --> 00:24:14.157
form up in the street and like
you try to kill each other.

00:24:14.240 --> 00:24:16.997
>> Yeah. Um like it
was like a common thing.

00:24:17.080 --> 00:24:19.917
You know, strikes I mean even the history
of the labor movement is full of

00:24:20.000 --> 00:24:21.917
this. Like strikes became super violent.

00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:24.917
Um and you know, management would like
literally you know, this the strikers

00:24:25.000 --> 00:24:27.277
would try to attack their plants and
the management literally would have like

00:24:27.360 --> 00:24:30.037
machine guns and they'd be like
machine gunning their striking workers.

00:24:30.120 --> 00:24:34.877
Crazy crazy stuff. And so like we
just we live in a much crazier world

00:24:34.960 --> 00:24:37.397
than we want to give ourselves credit
for and the idea that like the current

00:24:37.480 --> 00:24:40.357
level of conflict is something new
is just not true. And and just to that end

00:24:40.440 --> 00:24:42.277
too, when people say, "Oh, ever since

00:24:42.360 --> 00:24:47.517
2008 or you know, your smartphone
sort of you know, propagating that

00:24:47.600 --> 00:24:51.237
it's led to increased depression
or things like that." Is that also another

00:24:51.320 --> 00:24:54.917
example of hey, we were underestimating
how depressed people were prior and it's

00:24:55.000 --> 00:24:58.357
It's of a measurement thing or is it oh,
but there was a lot of other things

00:24:58.440 --> 00:25:02.117
happening in 2018 like you know,
political extremism and and other things

00:25:02.200 --> 00:25:07.317
that that make people more depressed
or how do you how do you engage in that

00:25:07.400 --> 00:25:09.717
that topic? Well, so the funny thing
is different Western countries have

00:25:09.800 --> 00:25:12.117
different that show different data
on the quote and quote rise in in

00:25:12.200 --> 00:25:15.117
depression. Yeah. Um and it basically
basically turns out it correlates to

00:25:15.200 --> 00:25:18.757
social benefits programs.
Um and so basically if you get paid uh

00:25:18.840 --> 00:25:21.317
or if you get like special dispensation
in school for having you know,

00:25:21.400 --> 00:25:23.677
psychological issues all of a sudden
you see a massive spike in those

00:25:23.760 --> 00:25:26.917
psychological issues. The countries
that don't have that the other Western

00:25:27.000 --> 00:25:29.197
countries that don't have that don't
show the same results. And so I I

00:25:29.280 --> 00:25:32.397
actually think that's a statistical
artifact uh of literally like government

00:25:32.480 --> 00:25:35.437
benefits programs.
Um so I I like I I don't even yeah, I

00:25:35.520 --> 00:25:37.557
would I would say I don't I don't I
don't even I don't even I don't even

00:25:37.640 --> 00:25:40.237
concede the uh you know, concede
the premise of the question but that's

00:25:40.320 --> 00:25:44.197
that's that's a longer debate. Um I
would just say in general like I guess

00:25:44.280 --> 00:25:47.637
what I'd say I'm I'm I'm prepared to say
that basically call it since I don't

00:25:47.720 --> 00:25:51.157
know, 2014 or something I'm prepared
to say like it does feel like things have

00:25:51.240 --> 00:25:54.957
intensified. Right, it it it does
feel like things are like wilder.

00:25:55.040 --> 00:25:56.877
Um you know, than they were before that.

00:25:56.960 --> 00:26:00.077
Um I think the most
that I would be willing

00:26:00.160 --> 00:26:03.037
to say though is I think we might have
lived through an era of what you might

00:26:03.120 --> 00:26:07.997
call suppressed volatility. Um and call
that maybe from like the end of the Cold

00:26:08.080 --> 00:26:11.797
War through 2014. Um where
basically it just looked like

00:26:11.880 --> 00:26:16.077
the West had won everything. Um and then
also it was sort of by the way, it was

00:26:16.160 --> 00:26:20.197
sort of the peak heyday of centralized
media. Um so it would if you just like

00:26:20.280 --> 00:26:23.957
if you basically track if you track
like how distributed is media versus how

00:26:24.040 --> 00:26:27.917
centralized is media like centralized
media sort of peaked somewhere around

00:26:28.000 --> 00:26:31.877
1970. Um where you know, literally
like all the newspapers in every city

00:26:31.960 --> 00:26:34.397
consolidated down to like a single
newspaper and then you ended up with

00:26:34.480 --> 00:26:36.877
only three television networks and all
the radio stations independent radio

00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:39.597
stations got bought up.
Uh let me give you an example. So

00:26:39.680 --> 00:26:41.997
historically so historically like if
you go back to the days of the American

00:26:42.080 --> 00:26:45.037
Revolution it was common in in even like
mid-size cities you would have like 10

00:26:45.120 --> 00:26:48.597
or 15 different newspapers.
Um and each newspaper would represent

00:26:48.680 --> 00:26:51.117
like a different political point of view.
And then the the newspapers would

00:26:51.200 --> 00:26:53.517
have these like furious you know,
they've just like just like you you

00:26:53.600 --> 00:26:56.237
would do today online. You You They
would just have these furious constant

00:26:56.320 --> 00:26:58.277
political, you know, fighting
and accusations back and forth and

00:26:58.360 --> 00:27:00.877
arguments. And of course the newspaper
owners would be trying to egg all that

00:27:00.960 --> 00:27:04.117
stuff on cuz it sold papers. But it
was like very common to have like many

00:27:04.200 --> 00:27:07.037
newspapers per city that would all fight
with each other. And then the economics

00:27:07.120 --> 00:27:10.477
of centralized media meant that those all
rolled up into into a single newspaper.

00:27:10.560 --> 00:27:13.197
Um and and then and then that single
newspaper, you know, at least for a

00:27:13.280 --> 00:27:16.037
while tried to be non-partisan and tried
to be even-handed cuz it was trying to

00:27:16.120 --> 00:27:19.917
appeal to everybody.
Um and then and so and again same thing

00:27:20.000 --> 00:27:22.317
of just like, you know, like when I
was a kid there was three television

00:27:22.400 --> 00:27:25.637
networks that were all basically the same.
Uh they were all trying very hard

00:27:25.720 --> 00:27:28.357
to be even-handed at least,
you know, kind of as best they could.

00:27:28.440 --> 00:27:31.837
Uh there were like three national news
magazines. Um you know, there were like

00:27:31.920 --> 00:27:34.997
I don't know there was a small number
of national radio networks. Um you know,

00:27:35.080 --> 00:27:38.477
there were two, you know, news wire
services. And so I like I I I will

00:27:38.560 --> 00:27:41.317
concede like I think we lived through
a period of suppressed volatility as a

00:27:41.400 --> 00:27:44.517
consequence of the fact that we had
overly centralized media. I think if you

00:27:44.600 --> 00:27:48.157
go back before that, like if you go back
to before that, if you go back to like

00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:52.517
the 1930s and before, like media
was much more fragmented. Uh it was it was

00:27:52.600 --> 00:27:54.477
much more like it is today. And then if
you like I said, if you go all the way

00:27:54.560 --> 00:27:58.157
back like 200 250 years ago, it was like
extremely fragmented. Like if you read

00:27:58.240 --> 00:28:01.317
the accounts of like Ben Franklin as a
newspaper publisher and like the the the

00:28:01.400 --> 00:28:04.677
stuff that he got up to with his
newspaper. So Okay, great story. So Ben

00:28:04.760 --> 00:28:07.237
Franklin ran one of the newspapers
in Philadelphia originally as a as a

00:28:07.320 --> 00:28:10.517
printer. Okay, so what would happen
is Ben Franklin wants to become a pretty

00:28:10.600 --> 00:28:13.597
much become a commercial printer. He
buys a printing press. He advertises the

00:28:13.680 --> 00:28:16.437
whatever and tries to get like all the
local businesses like print pamphlets in

00:28:16.520 --> 00:28:18.597
the printing press, but he doesn't have
enough business for the printing press.

00:28:18.680 --> 00:28:21.357
And so he starts a newspaper
to have something to print.

00:28:21.440 --> 00:28:22.917
Um and so he starts this newspaper.

00:28:23.000 --> 00:28:25.797
There's like 15 other newspapers
in Philadelphia at the time. But he's got

00:28:25.880 --> 00:28:26.877
to fill the newspaper with something.

00:28:26.960 --> 00:28:29.757
And so in he's Ben Franklin, he's very
creative. And so he creates basically

00:28:29.840 --> 00:28:33.517
sock puppets.
He does basically He does basically

00:28:33.600 --> 00:28:35.157
alts. He does alts. Alts. He does alts.

00:28:35.240 --> 00:28:39.517
So Yeah, yeah, exactly. Alts. Um
and they're all under pseudonyms. Um and

00:28:39.600 --> 00:28:42.117
so he does I forget the all the names
now, but he had, you know, he had all

00:28:42.200 --> 00:28:44.037
these different he had all these
different different names for them. And

00:28:44.120 --> 00:28:47.197
I think at one point in his own
newspaper he had like 15 different alts

00:28:47.280 --> 00:28:50.357
uh going at it. And he he he he wrote
them all but under different names. And

00:28:50.440 --> 00:28:53.197
they all had like very different points
of view. And then he would basically set

00:28:53.280 --> 00:28:55.797
them off to have these like raging
arguments with each other in his

00:28:55.880 --> 00:28:58.877
newspaper. And people would buy his
people would buy his newspaper to cover

00:28:58.960 --> 00:29:02.837
this. And then that that culminated
in the election of 1800, which was the

00:29:02.920 --> 00:29:05.797
famous election of Thomas Jefferson
versus John Adams, which was sort of

00:29:05.880 --> 00:29:10.517
this newspaper centric election, which
was characterized by a level of slander.

00:29:10.600 --> 00:29:14.237
Like the degree to which partisans of
Thomas Jefferson and John Adams attacked

00:29:14.320 --> 00:29:17.517
each other in the 1800 election is like
way beyond even what we see today on

00:29:17.600 --> 00:29:20.877
social media. Like they accused each
other of the most horrible you can

00:29:20.960 --> 00:29:24.957
possibly imagine. Um and it
became like this giant scandal.

00:29:25.040 --> 00:29:28.437
And so like this is not the the idea
that there's like whatever rhetorical

00:29:28.520 --> 00:29:31.677
combat or like that there's like
this virtual environment in which there's

00:29:31.760 --> 00:29:34.597
lots of points of view and there's lots
of, you know, again both lots of truth

00:29:34.680 --> 00:29:38.037
truths lots of lies. Like this is not new.
In fact, this this this is the

00:29:38.120 --> 00:29:40.637
natural order of things.
We just lived through a period of

00:29:40.720 --> 00:29:44.557
artificial volatility and that
artificial suppression of volatility.

00:29:44.640 --> 00:29:46.077
Uh with media becoming over centralized.

00:29:46.160 --> 00:29:48.597
And and and obviously those days are over.

00:29:48.680 --> 00:29:51.997
I want to return back to uh we
were talking about the current

00:29:52.080 --> 00:29:55.597
thing and how that's accelerated over
time. We previously had a conversation a

00:29:55.680 --> 00:29:59.557
while ago where we talking about sort
of the attributes of of a current thing.

00:29:59.640 --> 00:30:02.477
And I remember you had this one
theory that it can't be something too

00:30:02.560 --> 00:30:04.997
believable. It has to be almost surreal.

00:30:05.080 --> 00:30:08.997
Uh yeah. Um I'm I'm curious if we just
talk kind of what are the attributes of

00:30:09.080 --> 00:30:12.517
something that becomes sort of the the
current thing or sort of the the the

00:30:12.600 --> 00:30:16.677
topic that people can't stop
quote tweeting, sharing, etc.

00:30:16.760 --> 00:30:18.957
Yeah, so again, it's kind
of this thing you kind

00:30:19.040 --> 00:30:22.037
of reverse engineer it. It's like, okay,
to be a current thing it it has to if

00:30:22.120 --> 00:30:24.917
you know, again to to to be this thing
of if it's on the internet, it's a viral

00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:29.597
internet meme kind of outrage cycle.
Um so it it has to be something that like

00:30:29.680 --> 00:30:32.317
it has to be something that activates
outrage. Like it has to be something

00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:37.277
that activates the emotional kind of
valence um of you you have to get like the

00:30:37.360 --> 00:30:40.837
emotional reaction off of it. Right.
Um and so you know, it's it's just like by

00:30:40.920 --> 00:30:43.437
the way, this is just like also
the history of the press in general.

00:30:43.520 --> 00:30:46.477
It's just like whatever you know,
I always say, the news is called the news,

00:30:46.560 --> 00:30:50.797
not the importance, right?
Like you can imagine a version of the news

00:30:50.880 --> 00:30:53.317
that's called the importance. And and
the newspaper is like here are all the

00:30:53.400 --> 00:30:55.117
important things that are happening today.

00:30:55.200 --> 00:30:58.797
Right? Um and you know, of course nobody
would buy it cuz nobody cares, right?

00:30:58.880 --> 00:31:01.837
Cuz people want the news, they want the
new what the new thing, right? They want

00:31:01.920 --> 00:31:04.037
or you know, they want they want the hot
thing, they want the exciting thing,

00:31:04.120 --> 00:31:06.597
they want the they want the outrageous
thing and and so the the internet

00:31:06.680 --> 00:31:09.637
version of that is right, they want they
want the outrageous meme and so so it's

00:31:09.720 --> 00:31:12.197
got to be something that provokes.
And you know, and there's something about

00:31:12.280 --> 00:31:15.637
this, you know, this this is other
people made this observation but you

00:31:15.720 --> 00:31:18.077
know, it's like you know,
kind of the ultimate male

00:31:18.160 --> 00:31:20.757
coded version of this is professional
wrestling, right? The ultimate female

00:31:20.840 --> 00:31:23.037
coded version of this
is like Real Housewives.

00:31:23.120 --> 00:31:25.997
Like you know, reality TV,
like you know, I don't know and then The

00:31:26.080 --> 00:31:27.637
Apprentice is maybe
somewhere in the middle.

00:31:27.720 --> 00:31:30.957
You know, it's just like reality TV,
like there there has to be there has to

00:31:31.040 --> 00:31:34.397
be sparks. Like it has to generate
a level of emotional intensity.

00:31:34.480 --> 00:31:36.877
Driven by some level of outrage and then
and then I think it has to be the kind

00:31:36.960 --> 00:31:39.997
of thing where you can have tribes
that form up and square off against each

00:31:40.080 --> 00:31:43.357
other, right? So um so you know, there's
a little bit like like like West Side

00:31:43.440 --> 00:31:44.637
Story dynamic to it or something, right?

00:31:44.720 --> 00:31:47.637
Where it's just like, okay, you can
imagine, you know, there's there's

00:31:47.720 --> 00:31:49.597
something that's worth arguing over.

00:31:49.680 --> 00:31:52.437
Um where where there's a you know, where
there's a real argument to be had. Like

00:31:52.520 --> 00:31:54.837
there you know, there's there's some
underlying thing that actually like

00:31:54.920 --> 00:31:57.437
really matters. Maybe maybe this event
doesn't matter as much but like the

00:31:57.520 --> 00:31:59.437
actual underlying issue matters a lot.

00:31:59.520 --> 00:32:02.517
Um and then it's going to it's going to
activate this tribal effect where you're

00:32:02.600 --> 00:32:05.117
going to be able to basically you're
you're going to become part of what they

00:32:05.200 --> 00:32:07.597
call a moral tribe. The the people
on the other side will become part of a

00:32:07.680 --> 00:32:09.757
moral tribe and then you're going
to kind of go to war with each other.

00:32:09.840 --> 00:32:11.557
You're you're going to have a rumble,
what they would have said in the old

00:32:11.640 --> 00:32:13.917
days. You're going to have a rumble.
A rumble in the streets, except you're not

00:32:14.000 --> 00:32:15.917
going to have a rumble in the streets,
you're going to have a rumble online,

00:32:16.000 --> 00:32:19.317
right? You're going to go at it. And so
it has to lend itself to that kind of

00:32:19.400 --> 00:32:23.317
basically tribal formation um and and
and and and and kind of that beating

00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:26.677
back and forth. And of course you you
the tribes then attack each other, you

00:32:26.760 --> 00:32:29.717
know, on the issues but then they also
attack each other's values um and they

00:32:29.800 --> 00:32:31.837
accuse each other of being horrible
people. And then when it gets really

00:32:31.920 --> 00:32:34.877
into it, they start to dox each other
and try to get each other fired. Right?

00:32:34.960 --> 00:32:36.757
And then it all becomes,
you know, very exciting.

00:32:36.840 --> 00:32:40.557
Um and so so it's got to have it's got
to have the it's basically it has to

00:32:40.640 --> 00:32:44.997
have the formation of a of a of a moral
tribe effect. It it's a the the

00:32:45.080 --> 00:32:47.277
psychological lens on this they call
moral tribes and then there's this

00:32:47.360 --> 00:32:50.597
concept right of moral panic. Uh, it's
got to lead to a moral panic. It's got

00:32:50.680 --> 00:32:53.477
to lead to this kind of thing of like
this is indicative of how society is

00:32:53.560 --> 00:32:56.757
going to right?
In in in like some important way.

00:32:56.840 --> 00:33:00.157
Um, and by the way, this is why you can
have like many many many many different

00:33:00.240 --> 00:33:03.317
examples occurring things that end up
revolving back around the same handful

00:33:03.400 --> 00:33:06.237
of like underlying political or moral
questions, right? Cuz cuz it's really

00:33:06.320 --> 00:33:10.237
right. It's really not about the,
you know, what happened, you know, I don't

00:33:10.320 --> 00:33:14.317
Jussie Smollett. I I just
want to say there's this new uh

00:33:14.400 --> 00:33:17.917
there's this new um there's
this new uh Keanu Reeves movie

00:33:18.000 --> 00:33:21.637
on on Apple TV um where uh Keanu Reeves
plays a movie star who gets canceled.

00:33:21.720 --> 00:33:25.197
Um, and his crisis lawyer played
by Jonah Hill. Uh it turns out during the

00:33:25.280 --> 00:33:27.797
course of the show, I'll I'll just spoil
it in course of the movie, it turns out

00:33:27.880 --> 00:33:32.357
his his crisis lawyer uh set up
the uh the the Jussie Smollett

00:33:32.440 --> 00:33:35.517
uh was was was off it
was it was a produced op. Um,

00:33:35.600 --> 00:33:39.157
So so so in the movie world the lawyer
came up with the idea um that there

00:33:39.240 --> 00:33:41.637
would be a black celebrity who would get
attacked in the street by white racists

00:33:41.720 --> 00:33:44.117
and that would be like a viral social
media outrage thing and then and then

00:33:44.200 --> 00:33:46.877
literally the lawyer says, "Well, then
we of course we went on cast and Jussie

00:33:46.960 --> 00:33:49.837
Smollett had the best pitch for why he
should be he should be the black guy."

00:33:49.920 --> 00:33:53.957
Um, and then um and then um there was one
of his underlings he he's still mad

00:33:54.040 --> 00:33:58.117
at because the uh the um
the underling was was tasked

00:33:58.200 --> 00:34:01.277
with the assignment of going out and
hiring, you know, the attackers. Um, but

00:34:01.360 --> 00:34:03.437
you know, this is in the heady of
diversity and so he hired two black guys

00:34:03.520 --> 00:34:06.797
to be the attackers. Right?
And he's like all confused cuz

00:34:06.880 --> 00:34:08.837
he's like, "Am I supposed to hire black
people not hire black people?" And it's

00:34:08.920 --> 00:34:12.917
like, "Well, not in this specific case
you weren't supposed to hire black people

00:34:13.000 --> 00:34:17.117
to attack Jussie Smollett."
Anyway, so the Jussie Smollett

00:34:17.200 --> 00:34:20.557
is fresh in my mind. Um, but it
was a great example which is like what

00:34:20.640 --> 00:34:24.357
happened on the street in Chicago
that night during the whatever whatever

00:34:24.440 --> 00:34:28.357
blizzard cyclone thing it was like
kind of matters, kind of doesn't matter.

00:34:28.440 --> 00:34:31.037
Whoever really knows, who knows whatever.
We've got weird grainy video,

00:34:31.120 --> 00:34:33.357
whatever. People say different things.
I mean, I think we now know what happened,

00:34:33.440 --> 00:34:35.917
but like in these events, like what
actually happened in the street? Who the

00:34:36.000 --> 00:34:39.037
hell knows? But the fight,
you see what I'm saying? Like

00:34:39.120 --> 00:34:42.717
the moral tribes that were able to form
up on, you know, one side or people are

00:34:42.800 --> 00:34:44.797
like, of course this is what, you know,
this is what happens to people all the

00:34:44.880 --> 00:34:47.157
time. And the people on the other side
of it were like, of course this is all

00:34:47.240 --> 00:34:50.197
fake and Right? You had this You
had this chance for these moral

00:34:50.280 --> 00:34:54.477
tribes to to to pair up and fight.
Um and so so I think I think it basically

00:34:54.560 --> 00:34:58.037
had I think it basically it it
it basically has to have that.

00:34:58.120 --> 00:35:01.957
Yeah, and sometimes it's very serious
uh and and the stakes are very high and

00:35:02.040 --> 00:35:05.317
sometimes it's uh just
an episode that's so

00:35:05.400 --> 00:35:09.677
you know, funny and the
astronomer uh CEO HR as a

00:35:09.760 --> 00:35:14.077
as an example. Uh Okay, so well this Okay,
this is a very important point. So

00:35:14.160 --> 00:35:19.157
very important point. So I would say two
things. So one is um the truth or falsity

00:35:19.240 --> 00:35:23.200
of the actual event doesn't
seem to matter at all.

00:35:23.560 --> 00:35:26.277
And and I think this is I think this
actually throws people cuz you start to

00:35:26.360 --> 00:35:28.957
think these are all fake and they're
not all fake. Like actual actually bad

00:35:29.040 --> 00:35:31.597
things happen. Right?
Actually bad things happen and

00:35:31.680 --> 00:35:34.597
it's actually like fully legitimate
to get outraged about these things. But

00:35:34.680 --> 00:35:36.797
also people are going to get outraged
about a lot of things that actually

00:35:36.880 --> 00:35:40.957
didn't happen. Um and so so so for
the purpose of the discussion of of the

00:35:41.040 --> 00:35:43.237
media again, this is the Marshall
McLuhan thing. If it's on the internet,

00:35:43.320 --> 00:35:44.797
it's a viral social media outrage cycle.

00:35:44.880 --> 00:35:47.717
Like whatever are the facts of the thing,
it doesn't really matter. In

00:35:47.800 --> 00:35:49.517
fact, it's probably best to your point.

00:35:49.600 --> 00:35:52.237
It's probably best if it's actually
hard to tell what actually happened.

00:35:52.320 --> 00:35:55.117
Cuz that makes it something that you can
more easily argue about. And so that's

00:35:55.200 --> 00:35:57.517
one thing. And then to the point that you
just made, I really agree with that

00:35:57.600 --> 00:36:01.437
also, which is um the the degree
of importance of the actual issue doesn't

00:36:01.520 --> 00:36:05.517
matter that much. Right? And so if it
if so if something happens to a single

00:36:05.600 --> 00:36:08.957
person, you can and then something
happens to 10,000 people, you can have

00:36:09.040 --> 00:36:11.397
the same level of outrage in in each case.

00:36:11.480 --> 00:36:14.997
Like the the outrage doesn't scale
with the number of people affected.

00:36:15.080 --> 00:36:17.877
Right? In a lot of In a lot of ways,
maybe the outrage is even higher when

00:36:17.960 --> 00:36:21.037
it's a specific person cuz it's because
then it becomes personalized. Yeah. And

00:36:21.120 --> 00:36:23.797
then and then you get in the old uh what
is it? The old Stalin thing, which is a

00:36:23.880 --> 00:36:27.237
single death of a tragedy, a million
deaths is a statistic. Like may maybe

00:36:27.320 --> 00:36:30.237
it's even the small scale horrible
things that happen that are the most

00:36:30.320 --> 00:36:32.317
emotionally intense cuz they're
the things that you really you know you're

00:36:32.400 --> 00:36:35.077
going to you're going to react to a
person. You know kind of kind of the

00:36:35.160 --> 00:36:37.877
most intensely. And so so and I think
that's the thing if you're if you're

00:36:37.960 --> 00:36:40.797
doing the meta observation of this it's
like okay you're just going to you

00:36:40.880 --> 00:36:43.997
basically you just have to expect
the same phenomenon this outrage cycle to

00:36:44.080 --> 00:36:47.277
play out every time regardless of truth
or falsehood and regardless of the

00:36:47.360 --> 00:36:49.677
actual magnitude of the
underlying issue because

00:36:49.760 --> 00:36:53.037
because again what's being argued about
is the specifics about what actually

00:36:53.120 --> 00:36:56.277
happened. That's not the point.
The point is the ability to form up into

00:36:56.360 --> 00:37:00.837
moral tribes and then and then yeah
and then have the rumble. Yeah. Oh

00:37:00.920 --> 00:37:05.597
there's a George Orwell um actually
has a has a great thing on this

00:37:05.680 --> 00:37:08.917
cuz George Orwell famously covered
the Spanish Civil War which which was as I

00:37:09.000 --> 00:37:11.917
said it's kind of the it's kind of the
original where a lot of this stuff sort

00:37:12.000 --> 00:37:15.477
of played out for the first time in
the 20th century and he he he did he did

00:37:15.560 --> 00:37:18.037
this thing one time where he talks about
his version of this. He talks about the

00:37:18.120 --> 00:37:19.557
role of the atrocity.

00:37:19.640 --> 00:37:21.957
Um and he said basically the the key

00:37:22.040 --> 00:37:26.917
point of propaganda in any war um so you
you get two countries to go to war and

00:37:27.000 --> 00:37:29.477
you know they've each got a moral claim
of like why they're the justified you

00:37:29.560 --> 00:37:32.357
know it's like nobody ever attacks
everybody's always defending like and I

00:37:32.440 --> 00:37:35.437
only attacked him first cuz he was going
to attack me otherwise. And so every

00:37:35.520 --> 00:37:39.757
each side in a war each country has its
own basically moral position why the why

00:37:39.840 --> 00:37:42.957
the war is justified. But he said he
said basically Orwell said like it's

00:37:43.040 --> 00:37:45.237
hard to sell like high it's hard to sell

00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:50.277
like these high blown you know these
high high flying kind of abstract ideas

00:37:50.360 --> 00:37:52.837
of like why we need to go to war. And so
he said what what happens is that the

00:37:52.920 --> 00:37:55.997
propaganda efforts of each government
in a war become basically looking for

00:37:56.080 --> 00:38:00.077
atrocities. Um and so
specific point events. A famous

00:38:00.160 --> 00:38:03.357
one is the My Lai Massacre in in in
Vietnam. But you you could you could we

00:38:03.440 --> 00:38:07.397
could name many many other examples.
Um and so you're looking for these very

00:38:07.480 --> 00:38:10.477
specific events where something very
specific and concrete happened that's

00:38:10.560 --> 00:38:13.917
clearly over the moral
beyond beyond the realm of

00:38:14.000 --> 00:38:17.757
of moral acceptability. Right?
Just clearly like you know

00:38:17.840 --> 00:38:19.957
usually involving innocent
people getting killed.

00:38:20.040 --> 00:38:22.317
And in the Spanish Civil War it
was like you know nuns getting killed or

00:38:22.400 --> 00:38:25.437
something like that, right?
Um and and and again, it's the the the

00:38:25.520 --> 00:38:27.877
the point of the atrocity The point
of the atrocity is not that it affected

00:38:27.960 --> 00:38:31.237
100,000 people. The point of the
atrocity is in fact, maybe the best

00:38:31.320 --> 00:38:34.197
atrocity only affects a small number
of people cuz you want to personalize it.

00:38:34.280 --> 00:38:36.037
Um and then he said he he he says this.

00:38:36.120 --> 00:38:39.037
He says, "The truth or falsity
of the atrocity doesn't matter at all."

00:38:39.120 --> 00:38:44.157
Like it it it the atrocity If the atrocity
is made up, it it it it the the

00:38:44.240 --> 00:38:47.717
the political value of the
atrocity is just as high.

00:38:47.800 --> 00:38:52.237
Right? And so it it doesn't matter. Like
once the atrocity cycle gets running, um

00:38:52.320 --> 00:38:55.077
it doesn't matter whether the underlying
thing is true or false because the

00:38:55.160 --> 00:38:58.797
because the point of it is to have the
have the atrocity be a propaganda win uh

00:38:58.880 --> 00:39:01.637
for for moral for moral for moral
justification and then and then for

00:39:01.720 --> 00:39:03.797
moral demonization of the other side.

00:39:03.880 --> 00:39:07.597
And by the way, lest lest people think
that I'm being cynical when I go through

00:39:07.680 --> 00:39:10.917
all this, I'm not saying I think this is
all good. Like I I'm not saying I think

00:39:11.000 --> 00:39:13.717
this this world is great. I'm not
saying that this I think that this is all

00:39:13.800 --> 00:39:16.677
positive. Um I I'm saying something
different, which is I think it's very

00:39:16.760 --> 00:39:20.637
important to understand how this
actually works. Because when you find

00:39:20.720 --> 00:39:23.557
yourself in the middle of one of these
things, I think it's very useful to have

00:39:23.640 --> 00:39:26.077
at least a slice of your brain that's
basically saying, "All right, I need to

00:39:26.160 --> 00:39:30.557
be aware of the fact that I'm getting
pulled into something, right? That I'm

00:39:30.640 --> 00:39:34.197
being triggered by emotion and I'm being
triggered and I'm being slotted into a a

00:39:34.280 --> 00:39:37.877
moral tribe and I'm and I'm mounting
up to go to war with the hated enemy and

00:39:37.960 --> 00:39:41.797
it's on the basis of something that
very well might not be true." Yeah.

00:39:41.880 --> 00:39:44.957
Right? And I and I and this, you know,
this is a the Rene Girard thing, which

00:39:45.040 --> 00:39:47.877
he says this the scapegoating cycle
always works because people always

00:39:47.960 --> 00:39:50.637
forget that there's
a scapegoating cycle. Like Like

00:39:50.720 --> 00:39:54.237
whenever you have to like crucify the
scapegoat, it's always the most morally

00:39:54.320 --> 00:39:56.797
important thing that's ever happened.

00:39:56.880 --> 00:39:58.837
For the duration of that cycle, right?

00:39:58.920 --> 00:40:02.237
And until it's forgotten by the next one.
Yeah. And so And so a big part of

00:40:02.320 --> 00:40:06.317
what I'm trying to do is explain why
like as as as we surf all of these

00:40:06.400 --> 00:40:09.837
current things, that we like at least
keep part of our brain that basically

00:40:09.920 --> 00:40:12.677
says, "Look, th- this is the state
of the world we live in. This is the state

00:40:12.760 --> 00:40:16.237
of humanity. This is the state of the
media. Like this is what's happening. We

00:40:16.320 --> 00:40:18.877
can like it or hate it or we can debate
the pros and cons, but it is what's

00:40:18.960 --> 00:40:22.277
happening, and all objective events are
going to be filtered through that. And

00:40:22.360 --> 00:40:25.557
to the extent that you care about
objective truth, you have to get through

00:40:25.640 --> 00:40:28.397
that, and you have to get to the other
side to be able to actually still deal

00:40:28.480 --> 00:40:30.957
with objective reality. But But to do
that, you need to understand the the

00:40:31.040 --> 00:40:33.557
cycle. And it's also important
to understand cuz if if people are ever

00:40:33.640 --> 00:40:36.957
involved in the cycle or implicated in it,
they typically say, "Oh, but I'm

00:40:37.040 --> 00:40:39.837
innocent. Once everyone finds out
the truth, they're they're going to

00:40:39.920 --> 00:40:42.437
exonerate me. They're going to clear me."
And they of course don't fully

00:40:42.520 --> 00:40:46.477
appreciate that people don't give
a People are, you know, predisposed to to

00:40:46.560 --> 00:40:49.357
to hate you, and they'll just find
any sort of reason, uh, you know, or or

00:40:49.440 --> 00:40:53.997
certain people, perhaps. Yes.
Yes. Yes. If Yes. If you are Yes.

00:40:54.080 --> 00:40:56.317
If you are actually in a If you are
actually innocent, and if you're caught

00:40:56.400 --> 00:40:58.477
up in one of these things, it's it's
horrifying. It's horrifying. I mean,

00:40:58.560 --> 00:41:00.957
look at cancellation. I mean, this this
happened to a lot of people over the

00:41:01.040 --> 00:41:03.517
last decade. You know, people people
would get canceled for things they

00:41:03.600 --> 00:41:05.997
literally never did, and for, you know,
for for for people then imputing

00:41:06.080 --> 00:41:08.277
beliefs, or, you know, some I don't
know, stray comment, or misreported

00:41:08.360 --> 00:41:10.797
comment, and then it gets imputed that,
you know, this person is a horrible

00:41:10.880 --> 00:41:12.997
racist, and off and away it goes,
and they have to get fired and purged from

00:41:13.080 --> 00:41:15.837
society, and, you know, have no way
to come back. Or or, you know, or whatever

00:41:15.920 --> 00:41:19.037
the issue was, right? Um, and, you know,
we you know, there were these you know,

00:41:19.120 --> 00:41:22.037
these viral videos viral video you know,
Oh, that's the other thing is like,

00:41:22.120 --> 00:41:25.397
okay, the the viral videos
The viral videos, right? The viral

00:41:25.480 --> 00:41:29.077
videos have viral videos have become
so much like the By the way, the first

00:41:29.160 --> 00:41:33.277
viral video that mattered
was actually a Rodney King. Um

00:41:33.360 --> 00:41:35.317
And it would And it actually inaugurate
And I'm not going to I'm not going to

00:41:35.400 --> 00:41:38.197
litigate the Rodney King good or bad
or whatever. It's a the whole separate

00:41:38.280 --> 00:41:42.357
conversation, but um the Rodney
King video starts with the beating.

00:41:42.440 --> 00:41:45.637
Um so, it doesn't show everything that led
up to that. And And And that set the

00:41:45.720 --> 00:41:48.677
pattern. And again, I'm not I'm
not excusing anybody for anything or

00:41:48.760 --> 00:41:52.517
whatever. I'm just saying like the video
started midway through the event. Um All

00:41:52.600 --> 00:41:55.597
of the really effective viral videos
basically since then, including the ones

00:41:55.680 --> 00:41:57.677
that have been really important over
the course of the last decade, they've all

00:41:57.760 --> 00:42:00.397
had that characteristic.
They all start halfway through the event.

00:42:00.480 --> 00:42:04.557
Um so, you you don't see the run-up.
Um and so, you don't you know, the Central

00:42:04.640 --> 00:42:07.357
Park birdwatcher was the famous like
you don't see the run-up of what happened

00:42:07.440 --> 00:42:09.837
before the before
before the video started.

00:42:09.920 --> 00:42:12.557
Um what was the other one? Who
was the other person who got like brutally

00:42:12.640 --> 00:42:14.837
canceled based on a video? I can't
remember. I mean, there've been a whole

00:42:14.920 --> 00:42:17.997
bunch of them. But, um this is the thing.
Right. And so, you you you get a

00:42:18.080 --> 00:42:21.597
viral video and it kicks off halfway
into the event. Why does it kick By the

00:42:21.680 --> 00:42:24.117
way, why does it kick off halfway into
the event? That's because that's when

00:42:24.200 --> 00:42:27.117
the event became interesting
enough to be able to put on a video.

00:42:27.200 --> 00:42:30.317
Like that's what People don't just
like walk around with their phones out.

00:42:30.400 --> 00:42:31.997
That's when they pull the phone out.

00:42:32.080 --> 00:42:35.637
But, by that point, you've lost all
the context. Right? And so, so then again,

00:42:35.720 --> 00:42:38.077
this is one of those things where, okay,
you're watching a viral video, you can

00:42:38.160 --> 00:42:41.157
feel yourself getting outraged. The key
question ought to be, all right, what

00:42:41.240 --> 00:42:45.997
happened before that? Right?
And you And that takes work,

00:42:46.080 --> 00:42:48.317
right? Like cuz it's not it's not right
there on the screen. And you have to

00:42:48.400 --> 00:42:51.877
like really try hard to like go back and
like figure out eyewitness reports. And

00:42:51.960 --> 00:42:54.037
by the way, like if it's a criminal thing,
half the time you don't find out

00:42:54.120 --> 00:42:56.357
what happened until the actual trial
happens. So, you don't find out for like

00:42:56.440 --> 00:43:00.197
another year. Because they don't put the
evidence out until the trial. Um and so,

00:43:00.280 --> 00:43:03.117
that that's another thing where people
get got basically people get used

00:43:03.200 --> 00:43:06.157
basically people get ginned up into
these outrage cycles without actually

00:43:06.240 --> 00:43:07.557
having the context of what happened.

00:43:07.640 --> 00:43:11.877
Yeah. The I want to go
back to this conspiracy you

00:43:11.960 --> 00:43:15.797
know, we have a a friend who thinks
everything is an op and maybe I'm naive

00:43:15.880 --> 00:43:19.277
and I miss out on on the ops that are
actually there. But, I'm I'm curious

00:43:19.360 --> 00:43:21.917
what your mental model one might have to

00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:26.357
think about how much is coordinated
versus not. I've I've I've been inspired

00:43:26.440 --> 00:43:30.637
by the idea of uh uh decentrali-
or emergent collusion. Uh

00:43:30.720 --> 00:43:34.397
just sort of um this this idea that a
lot of people have incentives to go in

00:43:34.480 --> 00:43:37.637
the same way that even if they're not
coordinating explicitly, they almost

00:43:37.720 --> 00:43:40.917
might as well be or something
that that or that it might explain

00:43:41.000 --> 00:43:43.637
why so many things seem uh coordinated.

00:43:43.720 --> 00:43:48.157
But, you know, ever since joining A16Z,
so many people have impuned onto us

00:43:48.240 --> 00:43:52.117
things that we're not doing. And so,
it's made me skeptical of uh of people

00:43:52.200 --> 00:43:55.717
calling for conspiracy. Um and and so,
I'm curious what what sort of mental

00:43:55.800 --> 00:43:58.317
model you might have for for for the

00:43:58.400 --> 00:44:02.917
idea of ops and how that might help one
understand the the the social platforms

00:44:03.000 --> 00:44:07.197
today. Yeah, so I think
as best I can tell, and

00:44:07.280 --> 00:44:09.597
it's tricky cuz it's hard to tell.
Um and there are, you know, some real

00:44:09.680 --> 00:44:12.997
experts in this that really really focus
on this. But, um as far as I can tell,

00:44:13.080 --> 00:44:16.717
like there there's some there's there
there's some truth on both sides. Um

00:44:16.800 --> 00:44:19.237
the the the the the the answer is um is
the answer is messy. And it's it's messy

00:44:19.320 --> 00:44:22.637
for two reasons. So, messy number one is
just like there are a lot of things that

00:44:22.720 --> 00:44:24.757
I think are happening that are truly
organic. And then there are a lot of

00:44:24.840 --> 00:44:26.397
things that are happening that are ops.

00:44:26.480 --> 00:44:29.797
Um and I I think I think there's
a combination. And then and then I think

00:44:29.880 --> 00:44:32.637
maybe you were alluding to this.
And then there's this thing which is like

00:44:32.720 --> 00:44:36.117
something could start
as an op and then become real.

00:44:36.200 --> 00:44:39.877
Right? Um which is kind of the point
of the op, right? The the the

00:44:39.960 --> 00:44:42.837
Right? The If you Let's just say if you
and I are going to be Machiavellian and

00:44:42.920 --> 00:44:44.317
we wanted to start a movement, right?

00:44:44.400 --> 00:44:47.797
And I And we wanted to start a moral
outrage cycle cuz we had some underlying

00:44:47.880 --> 00:44:50.357
goal cuz we were either trying to win
an election or trying to get a political

00:44:50.440 --> 00:44:52.957
something, you know, law passed
or something like that. We were going to

00:44:53.040 --> 00:44:56.277
like we're maximum like Machiavellian
deviousness and we're going to like have

00:44:56.360 --> 00:44:59.277
a black budget, you know, and we're
going to pay influencers to you know, da

00:44:59.360 --> 00:45:01.397
da da all this stuff that people say,
you know, bot we're going to have our

00:45:01.480 --> 00:45:04.957
bot army and so forth. Like the point
of it is not to just like have a bunch of

00:45:05.040 --> 00:45:07.837
propaganda online with a with a bot army
behind it. The point is to get people to

00:45:07.920 --> 00:45:11.117
actually believe it. Right?
Like that is the goal.

00:45:11.200 --> 00:45:14.877
Right? And so and and and and then you
know, you don't want to have to pay for

00:45:14.960 --> 00:45:16.837
like every post, right? At some
point you want them to be happening

00:45:16.920 --> 00:45:19.317
organically even just out of out
of self-economic interest. And so you you

00:45:19.400 --> 00:45:22.357
actually you're actually trying
to generate uh you're actually trying to

00:45:22.440 --> 00:45:26.037
generate uh the thing. Actually,
there's there's a great paper on this. Um

00:45:26.120 --> 00:45:30.117
There's a guy Timur Kuran and and uh
who's the famous sort of a guy who talks

00:45:30.200 --> 00:45:34.197
about preference falsification. And then
Cass Sunstein um wrote this thing years

00:45:34.280 --> 00:45:36.917
ago or they they talk about this
phenomenon relevant here. They call it

00:45:37.000 --> 00:45:40.797
availability cascades. So, their term
for this kind of thing that we've been

00:45:40.880 --> 00:45:43.957
talking about, which is like a viral
outrage cycle, uh their term for it they

00:45:44.040 --> 00:45:47.357
call availability cascade. And what they
mean by availability cascade is sort of

00:45:47.440 --> 00:45:51.117
cascade means basically the process it's
the sociological term for sort of an an

00:45:51.200 --> 00:45:53.557
idea or concept kind of cascading
through a society kind of building a

00:45:53.640 --> 00:45:57.237
momentum as it goes. And then
availability they they they they call

00:45:57.320 --> 00:46:00.797
based on the idea of availability bias,
which basically is we we to overfocus on

00:46:00.880 --> 00:46:02.397
the thing that's right in front of us.

00:46:02.480 --> 00:46:05.637
Um and so we we tend to over focus
on the thing that's basically present in

00:46:05.720 --> 00:46:08.677
our mind at that time, which may or may
or may not be as important as other

00:46:08.760 --> 00:46:11.957
things that we're not focused on. But
But in the paper the significance of it

00:46:12.040 --> 00:46:14.957
is in the paper they identify the role
of a specific kind of person they call

00:46:15.040 --> 00:46:18.917
availability entrepreneur.
Um and the the role of the availability

00:46:19.000 --> 00:46:22.597
entrepreneur is to try to inject into
the public consciousness availability

00:46:22.680 --> 00:46:26.517
bias as a deliberate exercise
to basically say, "This is the specific

00:46:26.600 --> 00:46:28.637
thing that you should
be focused on right now."

00:46:28.720 --> 00:46:31.637
Like this is the specific person who's
been hurt by something. This is the

00:46:31.720 --> 00:46:35.317
specific whatever, you know, moral event
that's happened. This is the specific

00:46:35.400 --> 00:46:38.637
issue. This is the specific thing.
And And basically what they say is like

00:46:38.720 --> 00:46:41.397
every time you see an availability
cascade, if you trace it back there was

00:46:41.480 --> 00:46:43.517
always what they call the availability
entrepreneur, which is basically the

00:46:43.600 --> 00:46:47.157
person who was like, "Aha, I am going
to put I know I'll give you the classic

00:46:47.240 --> 00:46:49.917
example. And And again, this is not
a value judgment and you know, this this

00:46:50.000 --> 00:46:52.957
was like you know, fantastically good
that this happened. But Rosa Parks was a

00:46:53.040 --> 00:46:57.397
classic example of this. Like Rosa Like
the story that we all got told at school

00:46:57.480 --> 00:47:00.117
was Rosa Parks was just like another you
know, some sort of random person and you

00:47:00.200 --> 00:47:03.637
know, with with the thing on the bus.
Um Rosa Parks was like an actual She was a

00:47:03.720 --> 00:47:06.237
trained activist. Like that she she went
to like the There was this whole like

00:47:06.320 --> 00:47:09.037
school of activists and they like she
was like a specifically trained It was

00:47:09.120 --> 00:47:12.557
an It was There was an availability
entrepreneur uh uh who set up an

00:47:12.640 --> 00:47:15.917
availability cascade targeted on Rosa
Parks that ended up causing fundamental

00:47:16.000 --> 00:47:20.117
and obviously very very positive
changes to American society. But like

00:47:20.200 --> 00:47:23.357
it started as an op. Like she started as
a She started as an op. But the point of

00:47:23.440 --> 00:47:26.157
the op was not to be the op. The The
point of it was to be what happened,

00:47:26.240 --> 00:47:28.597
which is to become a nationwide movement
that that ultimately led to led to

00:47:28.680 --> 00:47:31.677
fundamental change. And so And so anyway,
the point is like just because

00:47:31.760 --> 00:47:34.317
things start as ops doesn't
mean they're not real.

00:47:34.400 --> 00:47:37.077
Right? And And And And And And And
if the And if the op leads to real

00:47:37.160 --> 00:47:40.557
outcomes, then you might as well
consider you know, it's like a At some

00:47:40.640 --> 00:47:43.237
point it's just a matter for historians
of how it started. Like it's a footnote

00:47:43.320 --> 00:47:45.957
to the Rosa Parks story today that she
was a trained activist. It doesn't

00:47:46.040 --> 00:47:49.557
really matter because she
because that op unlocked a

00:47:49.640 --> 00:47:53.037
broad-based actual movement in American
society that led to actually profound

00:47:53.120 --> 00:47:56.797
change. Um and so this is
the problem with this topic,

00:47:56.880 --> 00:47:59.917
which is oh, that's just an op. Is

00:48:00.000 --> 00:48:03.597
basically like cope. Like, okay, right?

00:48:03.680 --> 00:48:05.957
It might have started as an op.

00:48:06.040 --> 00:48:08.317
But if it ends up in a real thing,
it doesn't You see what I'm saying? It

00:48:08.400 --> 00:48:10.237
doesn't matter that it started as an op.

00:48:10.320 --> 00:48:13.317
Right. Uh and then by the way,
conversely, it also doesn't matter if it

00:48:13.400 --> 00:48:17.037
didn't start as an Because again, it's

00:48:17.120 --> 00:48:20.437
it's the same outcome. And so So,
I do think I think I think both things are

00:48:20.520 --> 00:48:22.797
true. I do think there's this furious
fight. I do think there are serious

00:48:22.880 --> 00:48:26.837
operators. And you know, you can go online
and you can find out about these things.

00:48:26.920 --> 00:48:29.517
This is a big issue, by the way,
in political influencer world right now.

00:48:29.600 --> 00:48:30.637
This is This is actually a big thing.

00:48:30.720 --> 00:48:35.597
So, um if I want to run
an advertising campaign to

00:48:35.680 --> 00:48:39.717
sell shampoo, um legally
in the US, if I hire

00:48:39.800 --> 00:48:43.317
influencers to say good things about
the shampoo, they I I believe this to be

00:48:43.400 --> 00:48:45.797
true, they have to disclose
that it's a paid commercial.

00:48:45.880 --> 00:48:49.077
They can't just like pretend that they
just happen to stumble on this shampoo.

00:48:49.160 --> 00:48:54.117
Um if I donate money
to a political candidate,

00:48:54.200 --> 00:48:58.077
I have to disclose that as part
of election federal election law.

00:48:58.160 --> 00:49:00.877
Um if I pay an influencer to take a

00:49:00.960 --> 00:49:05.917
position on a moral topic that is not
a product that is sold or a political

00:49:06.000 --> 00:49:08.517
candidate, but it's just
like a position on a moral

00:49:08.600 --> 00:49:12.037
or political thing, that doesn't qualify
either as an advertisement or as a

00:49:12.120 --> 00:49:15.637
political donation. It's fully
legal to do that in the dark.

00:49:15.720 --> 00:49:19.397
Yeah. Well, right.
AI, right? A lot of a lot

00:49:19.480 --> 00:49:23.827
of paid doom out there. We were
just talking about Aella's, you know,

00:49:23.910 --> 00:49:26.837
>> [laughter] >> a new
media fellowship for doomers.

00:49:26.920 --> 00:49:31.317
And yeah, it's a perfect example and it,
you know, seems to be having a

00:49:31.400 --> 00:49:34.197
real impact. This is a great
example. So, this is the

00:49:34.280 --> 00:49:35.957
thing, right? You know, they're they're
living the meme, right? They're living

00:49:36.040 --> 00:49:39.877
the meme. So, cuz cuz so
so this is a good So, so

00:49:39.960 --> 00:49:41.877
I don't know if you you you may have
covered all this already, but yeah. So,

00:49:41.960 --> 00:49:45.197
so like there we we know we're in this AI
we're in this pitch AI policy battle

00:49:45.280 --> 00:49:48.637
and we we know through that and we
we're we're deep into this. We know that

00:49:48.720 --> 00:49:51.637
there's dark money in in AI. Like, a lot
of the AI doomers and stuff is basically

00:49:51.720 --> 00:49:54.237
bought and paid for. Like so there's
this these influence operations that are

00:49:54.320 --> 00:49:57.557
happening and they fall into this bucket
of it it's it's it's neither an

00:49:57.640 --> 00:50:00.037
advertisement to say AI is going
to kill everybody nor is it a political

00:50:00.120 --> 00:50:03.237
candidate. And so you there are
organizations and companies that are

00:50:03.320 --> 00:50:06.117
paying that you know that they're
they're they're there's that and again

00:50:06.200 --> 00:50:09.357
it's like not not everybody who says
that is is is being paid but that there

00:50:09.440 --> 00:50:13.717
there is a lot of dark money in in that
in in that world right now. Um and so

00:50:13.800 --> 00:50:15.957
and of course you know that the
partisans in that world insist full on

00:50:16.040 --> 00:50:18.157
of course that there's you know
that that of course is absolutely not

00:50:18.240 --> 00:50:21.637
happening until yesterday. Um when they
just go ahead and like live the meme and

00:50:21.720 --> 00:50:25.077
they just like announce the program.
Um and so >> [laughter]

00:50:25.160 --> 00:50:29.197
>> So they announce the program in black
and white um right there on the website.

00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:32.317
It's like a influencer camp in which
you're going to go did that that that

00:50:32.400 --> 00:50:35.397
that and by the way it's free right
which means you know you're you know

00:50:35.480 --> 00:50:36.957
you're being you're being paid.

00:50:37.040 --> 00:50:39.997
Um and then they say you know where's
the money coming from and they say oh

00:50:40.080 --> 00:50:43.437
you know we're a non-profit being funded
by by in this case MIRI which is one one

00:50:43.520 --> 00:50:46.837
one one organization with its own kind
of interesting funding history. And then

00:50:46.920 --> 00:50:52.397
they say and other donors.
Right then they Right. It's like

00:50:52.480 --> 00:50:55.397
It's literally you know it's literally
like it's it's literally like is it you

00:50:55.480 --> 00:50:59.237
I don't know is it a conspiracy
if it's in plain sight?

00:50:59.320 --> 00:51:01.437
But and I'm just I'm picking on that
one cuz that's the one that happened

00:51:01.520 --> 00:51:04.357
yesterday but like that that for sure
is happening all throughout politics. It's

00:51:04.440 --> 00:51:06.877
for sure happening on lots
and lots of social issues.

00:51:06.960 --> 00:51:11.837
Um you know it's it's it's a it's a thing.
Um uh and so yeah and so like but

00:51:11.920 --> 00:51:14.357
again it goes back to this thing of like
okay yes there are ops. Yes you can't

00:51:14.440 --> 00:51:16.717
believe what you see. By the way there
there are there are there are bot farms.

00:51:16.800 --> 00:51:20.717
Like there are obviously bot farms. Um
and they're obviously bot farms that are

00:51:20.800 --> 00:51:23.197
being deployed. You know there there
are online influencers some of them very

00:51:23.280 --> 00:51:25.597
controversial where you know they
clearly there's clearly a bot army

00:51:25.680 --> 00:51:29.437
behind them. By the way you could be
an influencer online and have a bot army

00:51:29.520 --> 00:51:31.757
behind you and have nothing
to do with a bot army.

00:51:31.840 --> 00:51:34.637
Right. Like somebody could be paying for
the bot army and you might not even know

00:51:34.720 --> 00:51:38.237
about it. Um and again
today it's totally legal to

00:51:38.320 --> 00:51:41.357
do that cuz again if it's if you're not
selling a product or not donating to a

00:51:41.440 --> 00:51:43.837
political candidate like it's it's
actually in this gray it's actually fine

00:51:43.920 --> 00:51:46.757
to do. And so I think it's It's
the case that like there's ops all over

00:51:46.840 --> 00:51:49.917
the place and quite frankly, like
the longer I I you more deeper I get into

00:51:50.000 --> 00:51:52.357
it, the more like, yeah, there's
probably more ops than I've been that

00:51:52.440 --> 00:51:56.277
I've been um that I that I've been I've
been uh willing to acknowledge. Um but,

00:51:56.360 --> 00:52:00.397
I would just say on the other side, it's
like I don't know. Does it really matter?

00:52:00.480 --> 00:52:05.037
Like is that really the thing that the cuz
the ops are only going to work the other

00:52:05.120 --> 00:52:08.277
way to put it is the ops are only going
to work if they if they resonate into

00:52:08.360 --> 00:52:10.437
something that people are
going to pick up and run with

00:52:10.520 --> 00:52:14.917
you know, anyway. Like to become a mass
movement, this is like what Timur Kuran

00:52:15.000 --> 00:52:18.117
says about the role of the availability
like, it's not enough to just like have

00:52:18.200 --> 00:52:20.877
your cause and then just
like expect that you can

00:52:20.960 --> 00:52:24.157
kind of trick people into running with
your cause. There has to be something to

00:52:24.240 --> 00:52:28.117
it that resonates with them. Uh you
know, kind of in them already. Um the

00:52:28.200 --> 00:52:32.557
causes the causes the causes them to Uh
and and if if maybe they pick it up

00:52:32.640 --> 00:52:34.677
and run with it based on the paid op,
and and by the way, maybe in the

00:52:34.760 --> 00:52:36.917
counterfactual they would have picked
up and run with it anyway, you know,

00:52:37.000 --> 00:52:39.677
without the op, and you know,
you'll never know. Yeah.

00:52:39.760 --> 00:52:43.797
The um that that's a great
mental model for it.

00:52:43.880 --> 00:52:47.317
Think about a last topic for today.
I want to close uh close on the say sort

00:52:47.400 --> 00:52:52.077
of the bridge between legacy and new
media because we see just give some

00:52:52.160 --> 00:52:54.677
examples. Obviously, the New York Times
they've made the adjustment to the new

00:52:54.760 --> 00:52:58.637
world um very well from a business
perspective. You know, we had um CBS

00:52:58.720 --> 00:53:02.517
acquire the Free Press, and so there's
some, you know, acquisitions there uh

00:53:02.600 --> 00:53:05.757
strategic acquisitions for legacy media
companies who are trying to innovate.

00:53:05.840 --> 00:53:10.077
You know, uh on MTS ourselves, we're
sort of experimenting with with players

00:53:10.160 --> 00:53:14.077
from both worlds. You know, we have
um new school of podcasters and Twitch

00:53:14.160 --> 00:53:16.957
streamer, you know,
Theo is Theo is 21 years old?

00:53:17.040 --> 00:53:20.917
Yeah. 20 Yeah, he's born to be
a a Twitch streamer, but we also have I

00:53:21.000 --> 00:53:24.867
mean, 21, I mean, over the hill.
Yeah, exactly. What, you know?

00:53:24.950 --> 00:53:28.117
>> [laughter] >> Has been by now.
Gray hair, gray hair.

00:53:28.200 --> 00:53:30.917
Washed. Yeah, washed.

00:53:31.000 --> 00:53:33.157
But, we also have Mark Halperin who uh

00:53:33.240 --> 00:53:38.077
you know, as a you know, legacy
and legendary um you know, uh commentator

00:53:38.160 --> 00:53:41.277
and host who who funny enough uh
Uh, know, we've talked about how

00:53:41.360 --> 00:53:43.477
is the is the bridge figure uh in that

00:53:43.560 --> 00:53:48.437
he was successful both in legacy and
in this new media media climate. Um, and

00:53:48.520 --> 00:53:49.357
it's rare for people to do both.

00:53:49.440 --> 00:53:52.317
Halperin, of course, interviewed did
a very famous interview with Trump when he

00:53:52.400 --> 00:53:55.557
was talking about the Bible verses and

00:53:55.640 --> 00:53:59.517
getting getting him uh to mention
some specific ones and you

00:53:59.600 --> 00:54:02.397
know, Trump of course didn't
want to pick favorites. Um,

00:54:02.480 --> 00:54:06.357
anyway, I'm I'm curious how you
think about the sort of the bridge um

00:54:06.440 --> 00:54:10.237
either analysis of Trump as a
bridge or or more just how do

00:54:10.320 --> 00:54:12.677
you see legacy players and new media

00:54:12.760 --> 00:54:15.517
players um sort of you know, playing out

00:54:15.600 --> 00:54:17.557
or even the styles of what will work in

00:54:17.640 --> 00:54:22.557
this new new format.
Yeah, I mean, so I guess

00:54:22.640 --> 00:54:25.917
I don't know, you maybe start with data,
right? So, um the data shows that

00:54:26.000 --> 00:54:28.480
basically

00:54:29.160 --> 00:54:32.717
Um, so if you focus on American data cuz
what I'm most familiar with. So, just in

00:54:32.800 --> 00:54:35.917
the data you basically see a couple
things. So, one is um trust in

00:54:36.000 --> 00:54:40.117
centralized institutions of all kinds
is is collapsing in the US. Um, so

00:54:40.200 --> 00:54:44.437
basically any kind of legacy um or um

00:54:44.520 --> 00:54:47.757
incumbent institution you know,
trust is collapsing fast. By the way, that

00:54:47.840 --> 00:54:50.477
collapse in trust didn't start with
the internet. It actually started around

00:54:50.560 --> 00:54:53.277
1970. Um, it actually

00:54:53.360 --> 00:54:54.717
uh it actually it's it's part of this

00:54:54.800 --> 00:55:00.357
it's part of this WTF happened in 1971
uh meme um is when basically trust in

00:55:00.440 --> 00:55:03.037
centralized institutions in the
US started to fall off a cliff.

00:55:03.120 --> 00:55:05.437
Um, that's true for many kinds
of centralized institutions and it's been

00:55:05.520 --> 00:55:07.717
true for you know, basically 55 years.

00:55:07.800 --> 00:55:09.837
Um, but but media's included in that.

00:55:09.920 --> 00:55:12.597
Um, and so trust in centralized media
is collapsing and you know, keeps hitting

00:55:12.680 --> 00:55:15.797
new record lows basically every time
they run the survey it collapses further.

00:55:15.880 --> 00:55:19.517
Um, and so so that's certainly true.
And then you and then the the business

00:55:19.600 --> 00:55:22.277
version of it is just very clear which
is you know, we've talked about CNN

00:55:22.360 --> 00:55:25.557
later like you're earlier like you know,
ratings for all the centralized media

00:55:25.640 --> 00:55:27.517
properties are in full scale collapse.

00:55:27.600 --> 00:55:29.237
Um, you know, cable news is collapsing.

00:55:29.320 --> 00:55:32.077
Um, you know, almost every almost every
newspaper has collapsed. Um, almost

00:55:32.160 --> 00:55:35.437
every magazine has collapsed. Um,
you know, basically all the all the all

00:55:35.520 --> 00:55:39.237
the legacy formats have collapsed.
Um Uh you know, with only very very rare

00:55:39.320 --> 00:55:43.477
exceptions. Um and so, you know, just
and then by the way, of course, finally,

00:55:43.560 --> 00:55:46.157
it's just sort of obvious, you know,
the the rise of podcasts obviously is is

00:55:46.240 --> 00:55:48.757
obvious now. Um and by the way,
it's amazing like the

00:55:48.840 --> 00:55:51.797
election of '24 was the one where
podcasts kind of flipped the you know,

00:55:51.880 --> 00:55:54.037
it went from being like, I don't know
if this matters to like all of a sudden

00:55:54.120 --> 00:55:57.757
everybody's like, oh wow, this matters
like a lot. Um and so, the rise of

00:55:57.840 --> 00:56:00.557
podcasts of course is undeniable at
this point. The rise of social media, the

00:56:00.640 --> 00:56:03.517
rise of of live streaming. Um you know,
these things are clearly happening. And

00:56:03.600 --> 00:56:06.837
so, like the the the the changing of the
guard, reordering of the the businesses

00:56:06.920 --> 00:56:10.357
and of the cultural and social phenomena
are clearly happening and I think are

00:56:10.440 --> 00:56:14.917
undeniable. Um you know, if you
extrapolate forward, like obviously all

00:56:15.000 --> 00:56:17.237
you know, essentially all of the
remaining old media properties that

00:56:17.320 --> 00:56:20.077
don't figure out a way to adapt uh
to the new world are going to you know,

00:56:20.160 --> 00:56:22.597
they're they're you know,
going to get basically run

00:56:22.680 --> 00:56:25.797
as my private equity and that'll be that.
Um you know, which is kind of the

00:56:25.880 --> 00:56:28.557
story of the newspaper
industry industry these days. Um

00:56:28.640 --> 00:56:31.557
so so I you know, that that like it's
almost like not even interesting to say

00:56:31.640 --> 00:56:34.197
that anymore just cuz it's like it's so
obvious that that's happening and then,

00:56:34.280 --> 00:56:37.517
you know, obviously social media, you
know, continues to grow as a phenomenon.

00:56:37.600 --> 00:56:41.237
Um uh continues to be very important. Um

00:56:41.320 --> 00:56:44.637
uh and so, yeah. And you know, look,
we're still we're still living in this

00:56:44.720 --> 00:56:47.597
we're we're still living in a in a
hybrid world today, right? Um and so,

00:56:47.680 --> 00:56:50.957
we're still living in a world um
in which like, you know, to some extent it

00:56:51.040 --> 00:56:53.957
still matters what's on TV, but like not
nearly as much as it did, but you know,

00:56:54.040 --> 00:56:57.637
pretty soon it's not it's not going
to anymore. So, uh you know, so so so that

00:56:57.720 --> 00:57:01.277
world is changing fast.
Um yeah, I I just think yeah, the

00:57:01.360 --> 00:57:04.597
the main thing is going to be um you
know, the the the the people who adapt

00:57:04.680 --> 00:57:07.717
to that are are people who adapt
to that are going to adapt to that. Um and

00:57:07.800 --> 00:57:09.917
they're they're either going to adapt
or they're not. Um you know, you mentioned

00:57:10.000 --> 00:57:12.597
Mark Mark Halperin, you know, who's
a good good friend of both of ours. Um and

00:57:12.680 --> 00:57:15.637
you know, he's I think he's doing like
an amazing job adapting to that and in a

00:57:15.720 --> 00:57:18.477
way that's just like I would say
shockingly different um and better than

00:57:18.560 --> 00:57:20.797
you know, most of his
former former colleagues.

00:57:20.880 --> 00:57:23.117
Um you know, there's great examples
that you know, then you get The New York

00:57:23.200 --> 00:57:24.637
Times has adapted to that in an

00:57:24.720 --> 00:57:26.117
interesting way.

00:57:26.200 --> 00:57:30.237
Um you know, the the Hasan um um a

00:57:30.320 --> 00:57:33.637
a newspaper um has fully
committed itself to um

00:57:33.720 --> 00:57:38.517
to the future, let's say. Um so, you know,
they're they're doing their thing.

00:57:38.600 --> 00:57:41.597
Um yeah, you know,
most of legacy properties

00:57:41.680 --> 00:57:44.077
won't adapt. They, you know, they never
do. Um there's going to be lots and lots

00:57:44.160 --> 00:57:48.317
of new things um that emerge.
Um And maybe I I should say here again to

00:57:48.400 --> 00:57:53.077
not sound not sound cynical about
this, like it is really striking.

00:57:53.160 --> 00:57:56.477
I'll say the following. So, like what
are the two like mega mega mega trends

00:57:56.560 --> 00:58:00.117
in video uh and and and and by the way,
also in politics over the course of last

00:58:00.200 --> 00:58:01.917
like 5 years. It's basically two things.

00:58:02.000 --> 00:58:05.837
It's it's short-form video in the form
of TikTok, Instagram, and and and and X,

00:58:05.920 --> 00:58:09.277
you know, short-form, you know, Reels
uh or short-form video. Uh and and there

00:58:09.360 --> 00:58:11.357
you get like the full battery
of accusations of like, you know,

00:58:11.440 --> 00:58:13.717
destroying attention span
and everything's trivial.

00:58:13.800 --> 00:58:17.397
Um but on the other side
is the rise of the 3-hour podcast.

00:58:17.480 --> 00:58:20.437
Um and so on the on the podcast side,
you have this incredible phenomenon with

00:58:20.520 --> 00:58:23.637
3 hours. And by the way, some of these,
you know, Joe and and Lex and others are

00:58:23.720 --> 00:58:26.637
now pushing this to the point where,
you know, Lex now has like in some cases

00:58:26.720 --> 00:58:30.837
7-hour podcasts, right? I think what
is it biology did like a 10-hour one on

00:58:30.920 --> 00:58:35.277
10-hour one on Lex. Yeah, yeah. So,
biology went for 10 hours on Lex. Um and

00:58:35.360 --> 00:58:38.237
so and it's actually interesting cuz if
you talk to those guys, they get data on

00:58:38.320 --> 00:58:41.437
completion rates. Um and and it's
actually a very large percentage of

00:58:41.520 --> 00:58:44.277
their of their listeners or viewers
who actually listen to the whole thing.

00:58:44.360 --> 00:58:47.317
Um so, like many many many Rogan
podcasts or Lex podcasts, people

00:58:47.400 --> 00:58:49.797
actually listen to the
full the full 3 hours.

00:58:49.880 --> 00:58:53.437
Um and so so it's it's the thing I
really rejected this idea that like, you

00:58:53.520 --> 00:58:55.597
know, I don't want people to think
that I believe this is like this idea that

00:58:55.680 --> 00:58:58.557
everything is going to become just
like trivial short-form social media

00:58:58.640 --> 00:59:01.837
like that. No, not at all.
You have this correspond

00:59:01.920 --> 00:59:04.877
You do have a lot of that. But you have
this corresponding thing, which is you

00:59:04.960 --> 00:59:06.237
also it's like a it's like a barbell.

00:59:06.320 --> 00:59:09.997
You also have this You you have
this massive rise in substance.

00:59:10.080 --> 00:59:12.677
Um and on the substance side, I would
point to the long-form podcasts. I would

00:59:12.760 --> 00:59:16.077
point to Substack. Um by the way,
you know, there's a big push on X to have

00:59:16.160 --> 00:59:20.037
long-form essays. Um I would push uh you
know, online you know, online online you

00:59:20.120 --> 00:59:22.157
know, courses uh on every topic are

00:59:22.240 --> 00:59:27.397
available. Um and um uh you just yeah,
you have this ability. But I've even AI

00:59:27.480 --> 00:59:30.837
what my favorite feature of AI is what
they call deep research. Uh which is a

00:59:30.920 --> 00:59:34.677
feature on both I think it's
on particularly on ChatGPT and on Claude,

00:59:34.760 --> 00:59:38.317
but like you set it loose and it will
write you like literally 30 pages. Uh a

00:59:38.400 --> 00:59:41.717
30-page answer, you know, this is
basically like a textbook on any topic.

00:59:41.800 --> 00:59:45.157
Um and so so I I think there there
is this other side which is you you have

00:59:45.240 --> 00:59:49.037
this you also have this growth in you
have this growth in Oh, the other thing

00:59:49.120 --> 00:59:53.077
is just in we're an example of this,
the rise of the practitioner media.

00:59:53.160 --> 00:59:57.957
Uh practitioner-driven media. So,
people who are actually doing a thing

00:59:58.040 --> 01:00:00.077
showing up and talking about it.

01:00:00.160 --> 01:00:02.637
Um and of course, you know, that leads
to all sorts of outrage of that's not

01:00:02.720 --> 01:00:05.037
journalism if you don't have somebody
asking like whatever super you know,

01:00:05.120 --> 01:00:08.717
snippy critical questions about it or
whatever. But like the idea for somebody

01:00:08.800 --> 01:00:12.117
who is actually doing a thing, I mean,
you know, Andre Karpathy in AI, right?

01:00:12.200 --> 01:00:14.797
He just just like shows
up and like explains

01:00:14.880 --> 01:00:16.757
like here here is how this all works.

01:00:16.840 --> 01:00:21.117
Um is is is just like amazing.
And and you know, in in in old media like

01:00:21.200 --> 01:00:25.077
basically like when I when I
was younger like Charlie Rose did that.

01:00:25.160 --> 01:00:28.397
But so I grew up actually listening
to Charlie Rose watching Charlie Rose. But

01:00:28.480 --> 01:00:33.477
Charlie Rose literally was on at midnight.
Like he was on CBS at midnight

01:00:33.560 --> 01:00:35.517
and he would have these hour-long
conversations with these super

01:00:35.600 --> 01:00:37.557
interesting people doing super
interesting things, but he was on at

01:00:37.640 --> 01:00:40.557
midnight and you had to stay up
at midnight to watch Charlie Rose. Right?

01:00:40.640 --> 01:00:42.917
It was like it was one of the great
things about getting a DVR is you could

01:00:43.000 --> 01:00:46.197
record, you know, Charlie Rose and watch
it during during normal normal daylight

01:00:46.280 --> 01:00:50.237
hours. But you know, we lost that or we
didn't have that for a very long time

01:00:50.320 --> 01:00:53.197
and we have that now. And so so I do
think it's worth noting like there is

01:00:53.280 --> 01:00:56.797
this incredible in my view clearly
incredibly positive, informative,

01:00:56.880 --> 01:00:59.797
educational, super helpful, super
constructive thing on the other side

01:00:59.880 --> 01:01:01.957
which is of course a lot
of what we try to do.

01:01:02.040 --> 01:01:05.717
And you know, if 2024
was the podcast election,

01:01:05.800 --> 01:01:10.197
it'll be interesting to see what 2028
people have been very concerned, you

01:01:10.280 --> 01:01:13.437
know, or or sort of predicting,
you know, deep fakes for a while and how

01:01:13.520 --> 01:01:16.637
that might influence things,
but we haven't really seen

01:01:16.720 --> 01:01:20.517
anything there super material it it
seems, but it'll be interesting to see

01:01:20.600 --> 01:01:24.557
what what media formats or just how
the 2028 election is is different than the

01:01:24.640 --> 01:01:27.877
2024 one in this conversation.

01:01:27.960 --> 01:01:31.757
We've had deepfakes forever. >> [laughter]

01:01:31.840 --> 01:01:36.877
>> Like Like people have
believed all kinds of crazy

01:01:36.960 --> 01:01:39.997
Um I mean, you know, there was there
was the Gulf of Tonkin incident and they

01:01:40.080 --> 01:01:42.357
kicked off the really kicked off
the Vietnam War. Like I think we now know

01:01:42.440 --> 01:01:46.517
that that was a fish. Like it's actually
quite well established. Um then some

01:01:46.600 --> 01:01:51.557
people might say Russiagate.
Um it was it turned turns out it was quite

01:01:51.640 --> 01:01:54.357
an elaborate fake.
Um so I the the deepfake thing I find

01:01:54.440 --> 01:01:56.557
very funny cuz it's like it's not like
we've been swimming in truth all this

01:01:56.640 --> 01:01:58.797
time and all of a sudden now that now
there's going to be deepfakes. But

01:01:58.880 --> 01:02:02.557
anyway, that maybe that's
a a separate conversation. The um

01:02:02.640 --> 01:02:07.277
I think the the the the the substantive
comment I would make is um

01:02:07.360 --> 01:02:10.317
So uh So I actually
think we have People talk

01:02:10.400 --> 01:02:14.317
about like famously talk about the 1960
election Kennedy versus Nixon where

01:02:14.400 --> 01:02:18.077
where famously where television took
over from radio. Uh where if if you they

01:02:18.160 --> 01:02:20.877
had their famous debate and if you
listened to the radio you thought Nixon

01:02:20.960 --> 01:02:24.317
won and if you watched it on TV you
thought that the the the Kennedy won. Uh

01:02:24.400 --> 01:02:29.197
so so so you know, the the the the you
know, audio versus audio plus video. Um

01:02:29.280 --> 01:02:31.197
and so people have been talking for a
while you know, that was considered like

01:02:31.280 --> 01:02:33.677
the first television election where
television was like the determining

01:02:33.760 --> 01:02:37.117
factor in who won or lost.
Um along with you know, maybe some

01:02:37.200 --> 01:02:43.077
shenanigans in Chicago. >> [laughter]
>> Anyway, um Speaking of deepfakes.

01:02:43.160 --> 01:02:45.997
Um so uh anyway, um people have been

01:02:46.080 --> 01:02:50.437
talking for a while about um when will
there be the first internet election? Um

01:02:50.520 --> 01:02:53.997
and and you know, people like to point
to 2016 being you know, Trump using

01:02:54.080 --> 01:02:57.557
social media or maybe 2024 being
the podcast election. I actually think the

01:02:57.640 --> 01:03:00.357
first internet election
hasn't happened yet. I I I

01:03:00.440 --> 01:03:03.757
By the way, people even point to 2008
with which with Obama fundraising. So

01:03:03.840 --> 01:03:06.677
yeah, 2008 Obama fundraising online. Uh

01:03:06.760 --> 01:03:09.557
2016 Trump using using social media as a

01:03:09.640 --> 01:03:12.077
broadcast method and then 2024 podcast.

01:03:12.160 --> 01:03:15.997
So we've had three examples of internet
mattering for elections for sure.

01:03:16.080 --> 01:03:19.837
Uh but I think we haven't had the true
internet election and and I and and and

01:03:19.920 --> 01:03:22.717
as a consequence of that and and by the
way we therefore haven't really had the

01:03:22.800 --> 01:03:25.957
true internet candidate yet. And actually
it's interesting as people talk

01:03:26.040 --> 01:03:29.677
this is not a pro or negative pro or con
comment on on Trump himself for the

01:03:29.760 --> 01:03:32.277
purpose of this discussion, but people
talk about Trump as the internet

01:03:32.360 --> 01:03:36.437
candidate, but he really he's really
a hybrid. Um, in that he cares he cares

01:03:36.520 --> 01:03:39.037
enormously about what's on TV. Um, and

01:03:39.120 --> 01:03:43.637
he's on and he's and he's on TV a lot um,
and he watches TV all the time

01:03:43.720 --> 01:03:48.317
famously in order to cuz TV is basically
how he gets a read on the pulse of of

01:03:48.400 --> 01:03:51.237
sort of what's happening and of what
people think about things and what

01:03:51.320 --> 01:03:54.957
people So like I think I think Trump's
kind of underlying theory is the things

01:03:55.040 --> 01:03:57.357
that are on TV are the things that the
people running the TV network know that

01:03:57.440 --> 01:04:00.197
their viewers want to see. And so
therefore if you watch this on TV you

01:04:00.280 --> 01:04:03.677
can get a sense of what people actually
think and I you know and as TV has been

01:04:03.760 --> 01:04:06.277
the dominant medium for the last 60
or 70 years, you know, that I you know,

01:04:06.360 --> 01:04:08.597
it's a pretty good theory. Obviously
it's it's it's pretty well you know,

01:04:08.680 --> 01:04:12.197
quite well for him. Um,
and then he and then he he also like

01:04:12.280 --> 01:04:14.717
cares a lot about like
affecting what's on TV.

01:04:14.800 --> 01:04:16.757
Um, and and there's this there's this
famous Trump story that lots of people

01:04:16.840 --> 01:04:18.917
have told where he'll be in a meeting
and there'll be a TV on in the

01:04:19.000 --> 01:04:21.277
background he'll be watching it and he'll
he'll have it with the sound off,

01:04:21.360 --> 01:04:24.277
but he'll be watching the Chiron the you
know, the thing at the bottom of the

01:04:24.360 --> 01:04:26.837
screen the text that shows what what
they're what they're saying and if he

01:04:26.920 --> 01:04:31.077
doesn't like what's on the Chiron he'll
tweet something to change the subject.

01:04:31.160 --> 01:04:34.157
Right. And so he'll tweet and then
he'll literally watch and the Chiron will

01:04:34.240 --> 01:04:37.517
change and he'll be like ah, you know,
so he right he's right he's able to

01:04:37.600 --> 01:04:41.117
cause right he's able to single-handedly
with his power of his Twitter to turn

01:04:41.200 --> 01:04:43.677
one current thing into another
current thing, right? Okay.

01:04:43.760 --> 01:04:47.997
So so my my point is like he's he's
a hybrid. He So he's he's very social

01:04:48.080 --> 01:04:50.197
media fluent, but he's also very
television. And of course his entire

01:04:50.280 --> 01:04:53.437
career was made on television. So he's
he's very television fluent. He's one of

01:04:53.520 --> 01:04:56.037
the best you know, television
programmers in history. And he's and

01:04:56.120 --> 01:05:00.517
he's and he's a social media native.
Um, there will be an internet candidate.

01:05:00.600 --> 01:05:04.717
There will be an internet president who
gets elected and I I believe entirely

01:05:04.800 --> 01:05:08.877
based on the internet. Um,
where they don't pay any attention

01:05:08.960 --> 01:05:12.397
at all to what's on TV. Um,
because it doesn't matter to them

01:05:12.480 --> 01:05:16.117
one bit. Um, and they're going to be
entirely online and they're not going to

01:05:16.200 --> 01:05:18.517
care what's in the on TV and they're
not going to care what's in the newspaper

01:05:18.600 --> 01:05:21.877
and they're going to be 100% a creature
of the internet. Um, and and I think we

01:05:21.960 --> 01:05:24.477
haven't I I believe we haven't seen
that yet. I don't know when we're going to

01:05:24.560 --> 01:05:29.237
see it. I'm pretty sure possible
it's 20 Um, probably my guess

01:05:29.320 --> 01:05:34.477
is 32. Um, yeah.
And so I I think we all have Yes.

01:05:34.560 --> 01:05:37.717
For better or for worse, we all have we
all have that to look forward to. Yeah.

01:05:37.800 --> 01:05:39.557
The uh well, I think that's a great note

01:05:39.640 --> 01:05:44.757
to to wrap on. This has been a great
discussion all things media. Uh Mark,

01:05:44.840 --> 01:05:48.077
thank you for coming on the first
day of Monitoring the Situation.

01:05:48.160 --> 01:05:50.197
I am proud to be part of the monitoring.

01:05:50.280 --> 01:05:52.600
Excellent.