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Each viral social media meme explosion
is like a 2 and 1/2 day panic cycle.

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[music] It was not that long ago grown
men in serious positions of power and

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authority in the US got mad at each
other and would literally have a

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physical duel and that was like a normal
part of life. If you're sitting at home

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scrolling social media getting mad,
at least you're not out in the street like

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hurting people. The fact that political
violence is at like an all-time low in

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Western society is something that people
[music] really don't talk about. The

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news is called the news, not the
importance. If you can imagine a version

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of the news that's called the importance
[music] and and the newspaper is like

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here are all the important things that are
happening today. Nobody would buy it

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cuz nobody cares. Cuz people want the
news. They want the hot thing. They want

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the outrageous thing. Mark,
thank you for joining Monitoring

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the Situation. Good morning.
I could not be more

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excited. Let's monitor some situation.

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Excellent. Well, first we'll we'll get
a bit meta here and uh we'll talk about

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media. We've been uh talking about this
idea at Monitoring the Situation. We've

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talked about investing in it for almost

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a year now. Um and when we were first
talking about the idea, uh you had

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brought up the the book about the history
of CNN. And you actually uh you

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talked about this concept that
they had called Randomonium. Uh

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what did you find so interesting about
the the founding or the history of of

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CNN and how how it could apply to what
we're doing here or or this broader

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media moment? Yeah, so uh
so one is I'm old enough to

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remember when CNN started. Um although
I didn't actually have cable TV at the

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time so I didn't see it, but uh I
remember it and the impact that it had

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and then I because I'm an obsessive,
I there's this book at one point that

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nobody's read, but it's the book
is called Me and Ted Against the World.

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Uh which is a great title. So it's it's
uh the founder of CNN, this guy Reese

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Reese Schonfeld. Um and uh
he he basically he's actually

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the guy who who convinced Ted Turner
to go into the go into the satellite

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business which sort of created,
you know, my essentially modern, you know,

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cable TV uh satellite TV and then all
you know, led downstream to streaming

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and everything else going on today. And so
and you know, this has been kind of lost

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to history, but Ted Turner was like
a a great like amazing example of like

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exactly the kind of, you know, great
founder that we work with. Like just

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this like incredible world of power, you
know, very controversial character. Like

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every other thing out of his mouth
like horrified, like you you know, he

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generated a huge number of headlines
of like you know, I can't believe Ted said

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that. Um like over
and over and over again. So

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like one one of these one of the one
of these real characters in the in the

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history of the media business. Uh
and then this guy Reese Schonfeld who was

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originally the lawyer that that wired up
Ted's first first first first satellite

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deal and and so the the two of them came
up with this crazy idea like I forget

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like 1981 or something. And they said,
"How about having a 24-hour news

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channel?" Right? And and and this at
the time was like just like a completely

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loopy idea. Uh actually uh Ted Ted
Turner wanted to be a 15-hour a day news

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channel cuz he assumed that there would
be nobody watching overnight, you know,

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that the 9 hours overnight. And Reese
was like, "Nope, 24 hours. People are

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going to stay up all
night to watch this thing."

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Um and the idea was uh by the
way completely alien to what

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CNN is today. Uh the the idea
was was was this concept

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that Reese Schonfeld came up with called
Randomonium which basically says at any

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point in time there is like whatever
there there is something happening in

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the world that is like the most amazing,
interesting, controversial, bonkers,

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compelling, transfixing
thing that you can imagine.

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Um and you know >> The current thing.

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>> The current thing. The current thing.

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Exactly. The current thing.
At any moment in time there's the current

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thing. And so he's like, "What should
a 24-hour news channel be? Obviously, it

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should be the thing it's right
Obviously, what it should do is it

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should lock onto the current thing.
It should then cover the current thing

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continuously, right? For as many minutes,
hours, or days as that thing is

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the current thing."
Uh and then he called it Randomonium cuz

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he basically said for that period you just
put whatever you get you put on screen.

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Um and so you get whatever fragmentary
reports or man-on-the-street interviews

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or like you know, what what whatever it
is, you just like slap the thing on the

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screen and like if you know, if you get
it wrong, you apologize later, but like

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you know, we're you know, this is you're
real time, it's live. Um and then you

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just people are just going to be glued
to this thing. And actually that So

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okay, so that was the
original CNN business plan.

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They they then they then you know, they
took a while to get up and running, but

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then they they actually did implement
this and the the for for our older

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viewers will will remember as I do that it
was the real breakthrough point was

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the 1991 Gulf War. The first
invasion of Iraq and the and

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that was the thing that really caused
the whole thing to punch through and

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there was like a week there. Where
basically just like you were just people

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were just glued to CNN around the clock
cuz they had you know it was like

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literally live on the ground coverage
of like you know they were in Baghdad you

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know with like bombing raids happening
all kinds of crazy stuff and the Iraqi

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government like just the whole thing.
It was so it was just like the most

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incredible show in the world and then
quite honestly they spent the next you

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know whatever 20 years you know
basically trying to trying to you know

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repeat that experience and they they
repeated it every now and then with like

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the Monica Lewinsky thing was that for a
while and the OJ OJ trial was that for a

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little bit but. It was just kind of hard
to come up with with with the next thing

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like that and then and then you know
over the last 20 years you know CNN has

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kind of become something you know
completely different today let's say.

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That's not that at all and then
basically what's happened is the

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internet reinvented randomonium. And so
right the experience of monitoring the

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situation on especially you know on on
social media and especially of course on

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X. Right specifically right and then
by the way also streaming right

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the you know the other the other part
of it is streaming and now there's

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obviously streaming on X but also you
know streaming on other platforms you

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know YouTube and Twitch and so forth
and so the internet reinvented this and

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right so randomonium turned into you know
the current thing and then monitoring the

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situation you know legitimately
justifiably became a a giant meme and so

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it is time yes it is clearly
time to monitor the situation.

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Why do we think the amount of current

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things or randomonium or situations just

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is continuously accelerating

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it it seems like it's you know just the

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the amount your velocity
of these moments just

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keeps on increasing how
do we make sense of that?

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Yeah so I think there's really two
two things that have happened that are

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really different and even you know
different than the days of cable TV and

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24 hour news so one is just
like the internet for

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better or for worse like the internet
plugs you into the world, right? Like

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the internet plugs you in. >> McLuhan.

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>> yes. Uh Marshall McLuhan,
okay, so let's cite

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Marshall McLuhan actually for both
of these. So Marshall McLuhan, who was the

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great media media theorist of the 20th
century, yeah, he had two key concepts

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so that are relevant here. So one
is the global village. And so he had this

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concept of the global village and the
concept of the global village, by the

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way, he did not view as a positive.

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Like he was not endorsing he was just in
his mind he was making an observation of

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what was happening, which is basically
basically what he meant by that is you

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you need to conceive of what he meant
by village to start with. So so village

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basically means a community with a small
enough number of people where everybody

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knows everybody else. So like think
about a small town or you know, a a

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literal small village and everybody
knows everybody else and as a

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consequence of that there's no privacy.

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Right. And and and basically everybody's
up in each other's business all the

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time. Um and I and and I grew up
in a small enough town, uh you know, in a

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rural town where I you know,
I I experienced this. I I saw what it was

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like and it was like that. Everybody
knows everybody else. By the way, it's

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the same people year after year after
year. You like get to know them like way

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too well. Everybody's completely up
in each up in each other's business. Like

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there's basically no privacy. Um and so
you know, and by the way, one of the

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reasons people leave small towns to go
to the big city is cuz they want to get

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you know, they want to get away from that.
They want to they want to get to a

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level of anonymity and and and have
a lot more, you know, people running

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around. But but the village kind of has
that specific thing. And what he said

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was basically modern media is going to
turn the entire world into a village. Um

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and so you're just going to be connected
and this is, you know, pre-internet when

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he said this, right?
Um but you know, it's really happened

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with the internet where it's just like,
okay, you're connected to everybody all

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the time. Um and and and and by the way,
like by default, um you know, he would

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find this to be like a a very
entertaining thing that this is actually

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happening cuz he he would say, of course
you're getting all the downstream

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effects that you're getting, which
is by default it's it's it's going to melt

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your brain, right? Like the the
human animal was not evolved the

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human animal was evolved to have like,
you know, there's a Dunbar's number. You

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can basically have a direct relationship
with like 150 people. It's sort of

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famously called the Dunbar number
in sociology. Um but the global village

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expects you to have a Dunbar number
of like eight billion people, right? Like

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Like cuz cuz they're all right there and
they're all up in your grill, right? And

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they're all telling you what they think
of you and they're all like cursing at

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you and calling you names. Like and so
it's just like this like really really

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brain melting experience. Um so so
that that's part one. Um so we just we

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experience reality differently uh
as a result of that. And so the the the

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thought experiment I I always have is,
you know, we we talk a lot about the

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impact of the internet social media
on politics. It's like uh well, okay, like

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imagine having social
media during World War II.

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Right? Like we would have had
a completely different national uh

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experience. Um you know, had like
Pearl Harbor happened with like Twitter?

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Like it like it would
have been a completely

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different experience than the way people
lived through, you know, Pearl Harbor in

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in in in in actually 1941 with, you know,
with primarily with TV and radio.

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And so anyway, so there there's a global
village thing. And then there's this

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other thing that he said, which he
originally said about television.

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He made this key observation. He said
this is part of his thing where he said

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the medium is the message. So
the the actual medium of the of the media

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technology actually determines a lot of
the message of what's received. Uh a lot

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of the content. And and and specifically
he said this thing. He said, "If it's on

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television, it's a television show."

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Um and what he meant by that is if
something's going to be on television,

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it's going to end up being turned
into the equivalent of like a half-hour

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comedy or an hour-long drama. Right?

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Basically, you know, the two native
media forms of of television are the

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half-hour comedy or the hour-long drama.

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Um and so you're you're going to get
this basically very emotion You're going

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to get this very polished and sort
of glossy and produced thing that's going

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to it's going to be a story and it's
going to run the way that a television

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story runs or a television show runs.

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Um and it's going to and and like
and every television show is like a it's a

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every television show is like a morality
play, right? Every television show

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basically tells a moral story of basically
people behaving badly and then

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and then learning the error of their
ways and then, you know, then famously

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you have like, you know, the happy
ending, right? Uh where everybody you

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know, kisses and hugs.
Um and remember Seinfeld was like a huge

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variation of that because remember
the the motto of Seinfeld, Larry David's

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motto for Seinfeld was no
learning, no hugging.

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Um and it was it was what made Seinfeld
so unique cuz every other television

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show up until Seinfeld always ended with
everybody learning and hugging, right?

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You learn the moral lesson and then you
you you sort of reconcile with with the

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people close to you. And so every every
real life experience would get wedged

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into the format of a television show and
would be turned into like this basically

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this basically this morality play.

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Okay, so the internet version I I
believe the internet version of if it's

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on television, it's a television show.

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The internet version is if it's on the
internet, it's a viral social media meme.

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Uh right. If if if it's on the internet,
it doesn't matter what it is. By the

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way, if an alien invasion
happens later this afternoon,

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it will be turned into a social media
meme. Like like like and it will go

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viral. And that and that's what will
happen. Right? And it will be turned

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into a viral meme and it will spread
virally across the thing and then and

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then, you know, human beings what they
are, that will turn into a moral panic.

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You know, that that'll turn into
a full-fledged like outright, you know,

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outrage and how dare you and people
will line up on each side and you sort of

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tribes will form and then people will
go to war with each other on social media

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and you'll have all these, you know,
basically back and forth. You know, all

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all of this all of this, you know, all
all both all the humor and all the rage

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of of kind of how how
how meme culture works.

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And so so everything on the internet
basically whatever happens in the real

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world becomes like a social media
basically social media viral moment um

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meme uh complex and then, you know,
basically moral panic. Um and you know,

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search for scapegoats. Um right? Like
a moral emergency. And and and and that

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happens to every single new that happens.
Right? And so and then you

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combine these two and it's like, okay,
for better or for worse, we're all in

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the same room now. We're like literally
in the same global village and we're

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sort of surfing controversial internet
meme moments over and over and over and

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over again. And as far as I can tell, like
if you look at the numbers, basically what

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happens is each viral social media meme
explosion, it basically is this huge

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spike up and then it's like this half-life
decay and it lasts about 2 and 1/2 days.

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Uh right. And so each social media
basically experience is like a 2 and 1/2

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day basically panic cycle. Um and and
then what happens is the old one isn't

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necessarily ever like resolved
or reconciled, but what happens is a new

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one appears, a new current thing appears,
right? And and just takes over

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the the the you know, takes over
the outrage, right? And all the emotional

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energy that applied to the old one
apply applies to the new one. Everybody

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forgets the old one even happened. Like
a week later, you can't even remember like

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What was the social media
like craze of like 7 days ago?

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I mean, it might as well have been like

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a thousand years ago. Like lost to the

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mists of time. Nobody knows like 7
days ago whatever it was was the most

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important thing that's ever happened.

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And 7 days later, it's like it never it
never not not even a peep. Like nothing

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is it's like completely gone. Um,
and so you just you're just going to

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have this like basically repeated sort
of you know, emotional shotgun blast

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over and over every 2 and 1/2 days,
you know, essentially forever. By the way,

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this is like this is why one of my
theories is like it's not possible to

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predict the outcome of politics. So like
it's everybody thinks they know what's

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going to happen in the midterm elections
in November. And I'm like, okay, it's

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now whatever. It's it's it's April 20th.

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It's April 20th that the election
is whatever, November 6th

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or whatever. All right, how many 2
and 1/2 day cycles are there between April

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20th and November 6th? And I you know,
the the math majors you know, be able to

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calculate that in their head, but it's
I don't know 100 or something, right? Or

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120 or something like that.
Like whatever is the thing that we think

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is the thing that's going
to tilt the election today,

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it's going to be a hundred social media
meme cycles old. Like nobody's going to

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remember anything that's happening
right now. The election is going to turn

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basically on like whatever's happening
in the economy and then it's going to be

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whatever is like the viral meme
panic that's happening like that day.

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And so and and you could say like
is this good or bad? I don't know. Is this

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better or worse than television? I
don't know. By the way, is this better or

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worse than the days of radio or the days
of you know, I don't know the Pritchard

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you know, the the revolution
that followed the you

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know, the the arrival of of good the
printing press? Is this better or worse

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than the days in which you know, we
were all reciting epic poetry around the

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campfire as our former media? I don't
know. You could have like a big value

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discussion about you know,
which is better or worse.

253
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Um, I I have an argument I will make
that this notwithstanding all the

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craziness this is better. But like this
is the nature of the world we live in um

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and it it let put it this way.

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This is we're now on autopilot.
Like the the the the shape of the media

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determines the behavior basically
from here on out and and until there's

258
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something that fundamentally displaces
uh social media like this is the world

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we live in. Hence the need
to monitor the situation.

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>> Amen. Is the reason why you think
it's better is because even though there's

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more noise, there's more signal and as
kind of a collective global brain we get

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closer to the truth or So I I
would say this um we get so a

263
00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,397
couple things. Yeah,
so one is look I would say there

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you could say this there are more truth
and more lies. Right? I so so so I would

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say that it's it's both of the following
statements are true which is there's

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more truth in social media than we had
in previous forms of media and they're

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probably probably I mean old media had
a lot of lies by the way. So it's it's

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hard to say there are more lies. But
let's just say there are plenty of lies

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in social media. Like there are plenty
you know plenty of ops and in in fact

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one of one of the one of the native
forms of entertainment of social media

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is trying to spot the ops.
Um by the way maybe I should pitch you a

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00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,557
show for on MTS which is you know maybe
every day we should do an hour on let's

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spot the ops right? Like what you know
which ones are real and organic which

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ones you know which ones are
staged You know was somebody getting

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paid behind the scenes. Um and so you
know and everybody of course focuses on

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the downside and so they focus on the
fact that there's all this all the all

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the all these ops and which
is certainly true. But there's also just

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like the ability for somebody to tell
the truth is like much more direct and

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clear uh than it was before right?

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Because of because of the you know the
the collapse of the gatekeepers. And so

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I I I think both of those are true. So
I think that's true and then but the the

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slightly different argument
that I would make um

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is that uh previous forms of media
were really good at generating physical

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violence. Um and so um
the the I mean there's many

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many examples of this in history but the
Spanish the Spanish Civil War um which

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was kind of the the the war that kind of
pre forecasted everything that was going

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00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,317
to all this sort of tragedy of the of
the 20th century that followed um you

288
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,717
know the Spanish Civil War was kind
of basically the test bed for both

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communism and Nazism uh, in the modern

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world. Um, and um, uh, and uh, you know,

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it it's native media format was posters.

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Um, and so you literally it was like
the idea the the ability to cut printed

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color propaganda posters was like
the new media technology at that time like

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you right before radio. Um,
and the Spanish Civil War was like

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super violent. Um, and then radio was
the technology that led to um, you know,

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radio was was was the Nazi regime's
native media format. Radio was the way

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that basically the the fascist
regimes got established.

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Um, uh, as well as by the way as well
as FDR uh, you know, was was was primarily

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a radio phenomenon. Um, you know, kind
of the rise of modern, you know, kind of

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you know, it's kind
of modern modern liberalism.

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Um, and then, you know, television,
you know, was the native media medium of

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00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,397
like you just, you know, television kind
of kicked in starting around World War

303
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:08,077
II. So it played a role, but it it then,
you know, television had a huge role to

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play in in the Vietnam War. Um,
and then in all of the violent riots

305
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,637
of the '60s and '70s, you know, which
were kind of you know, super crazy both,

306
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you know, across the US and Europe.
Um, and so you know, tell television has a

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long history of of leading
leading to downstream violence. Um,

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you know, the fact that we haven't
actually had like the the the fact that

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like political violence is at like
an all-time low in Western society is

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something that people really don't talk
about. Um, and it feels like we must be

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in this like super politically violent
world because everybody's so angry about

312
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,437
politics all the time, but like measured
political violence is is at like an

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all-time low. And so so my theory is the
the ability to directly participate in

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online virtual combat uh, is shunting
away a lot of the energy that in the

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past would have would have
translated to street violence.

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And so and so I so it's it's sort
of this thing is if if the virtual world

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can become arbitrarily rhetorically
violent without people actually getting

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00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,317
physically hurt. And that gives people
a way to exercise all of their anger and

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00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,917
rage over politics and to be able
to attack, you know, the the hated enemy

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uh, without having it actually be
something that translates to physical

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00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,477
violence. Um, and so so yeah,
my it's like I don't

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00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,397
know, social media wars up,
you know, physical violence down.

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Nobody wants to hear that cuz
everybody's so mad all the time about

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what's happening online, but but I think
that that's character Like, if you're

325
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,597
sitting at home scrolling social media
getting mad, like at least you're not

326
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,197
out on the street like hurting people.

327
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So, that's my That's my moral defense
of the whole thing. Well, it's fascinating

328
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:30,357
because there's kind of a different kind
of ideological sorting happening cuz cuz

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people you you say things like, "Hey,
you know, now they can't even talk to

330
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their own families cuz they've sort
of found their tribe online that it that

331
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:41,917
agrees with them." Uh and uh you know,
it's it's no longer the people they

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00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,357
it's it's no longer their families
and and back in the day, you know, you

333
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:49,277
didn't have as as much uh po- po- this
or the the logic goes, as much political

334
00:17:49,360 --> 00:17:52,757
polarization of the idea that I can't
even talk to someone not not from the

335
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,477
same side. Pa- Part of that perhaps is
because the internet allows them to find

336
00:17:56,560 --> 00:18:01,437
their tribe so, you know, so strongly
and so clearly that they're able to uh

337
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:05,157
you know, have an exclusionary
tribe as well. But, I guess

338
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,317
one response to political polarization

339
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:12,277
argument uh is that, "Hey, at least
it's not going to uh you know, leading to

340
00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:16,037
physical combat." Uh wh- what
might you say more broadly? Is

341
00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:19,517
is it just overstated in general because
people also have this idea of filter

342
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:23,757
bubbles, too. But, uh of course, it in
some ways it's the opposite in the sense

343
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:28,637
that the internet exposes you to ideas
that you wouldn't have seen otherwise.

344
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,557
Right. Yeah, so I think people just have
a really rose-colored glasses view of

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00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,717
the past. The The past gets sanded off
like in part cuz we only interpret the

346
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,397
pa- you know, a number one is we we
weren't there. And then the modern

347
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,077
interpreters of the past, you know, are
often quite honestly not telling us the

348
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,597
truth about what happened because they
they have their own modern kind of, you

349
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,637
know, gloss or spin
they want to put on it.

350
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,277
Um and so uh but just the edges
of the past gets sanded off in in in

351
00:18:49,360 --> 00:18:52,597
retrospect. But, it's just like it's
really significant like if you just

352
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,317
Like the easiest thing to do easiest
thing is just go go on YouTube and watch

353
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,077
old episodes of a TV show
called All All in the Family.

354
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:02,077
Um which was a which was a a very uh
a very famous uh successful TV show when I

355
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:06,957
was a kid. Um and All in the Family
was a microcosm uh fictional microcosm of

356
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,997
basically the culture wars, political
wars of the of the late '60s into the

357
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:14,917
1970s. Um and it was like, you know
there's famously this this character

358
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,837
Archie Bunker who sort
of represented, you know, this

359
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,477
is white guy and he he basically
represent great brilliant actor named

360
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:25,157
Carroll O'Connor played him and he
basically played a retrograde basically

361
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,517
Republican, you know, Nixon supporting
Republican in this would be in like I

362
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,997
don't know 1972 or something 1974.

363
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,157
Um who just basically was was was
painted in the show as like the most

364
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:39,477
backwards like basically archaic,
you know, knuckle dragging racist, sexist,

365
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:43,037
just like the worst possible person
in the world. And then there was his

366
00:19:43,120 --> 00:19:48,517
son-in-law played by young Rob Reiner who

367
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:53,277
who Archie Bunker nicknamed Meathead. Um
which is what the character became known

368
00:19:53,360 --> 00:19:57,877
as and and and Meathead was basically
just the arch progressive liberal, right?

369
00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,837
You know, sort of like you know,
think I don't know young Gavin Newsom or

370
00:19:59,920 --> 00:20:02,557
something, right? Where he just like
he had just like the exact politically

371
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,677
correct approved view of the time and so
he's like, you know, super at the time,

372
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,597
you know, the equivalent then of super
woke, super progressive, you know, super

373
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,197
liberal, super enlightened on uh on all
these issues. And and the the conceit of

374
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,717
the show, you know, and the guy who
did create the show is this famous

375
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,517
television producer named Norman Lear
and the conceit of the show was supposed

376
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,757
to be a moral it was supposed to be
a moral lesson of Meathead giving

377
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,637
basically moral lectures to Archie
Bunker every week to try to get Archie

378
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,637
Bunker to stop being such
a backwards-looking like 1950s retrograde

379
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,757
basically racist sexist guy and and come
into the modern world. And of course

380
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,517
what happened was Carroll O'Connor
number one the actor was just like super

381
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,957
funny. Uh but the other was the the
political environment was superheated at

382
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,237
that point and and of course it turned
out Archie Bunker ended up being the

383
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,757
star of the show.
Uh and and so the the show ended up

384
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,637
being the opposite of kind of what what
it was intended to be. Uh that happened

385
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,597
later in the 80s it happened
in the show called Family Ties

386
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,357
which was again it was a very similar
thing which it was it was these two

387
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:59,437
parents baby boomer parents in the 80s
and they were like super, you know, very

388
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,997
left-wing producers who made the show
and the characters were like super

389
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,717
proper left-wing progressive. And then
there was this character in the show

390
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:09,357
Michael J. Fox their their son who
was this teenage kid, um and um he played

391
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,437
the I forget the name I'm I'm blanking
on the name of the character, but he

392
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,677
played played the son. And the son
basically was a Reagan Republican as a

393
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,477
teenager, right? And and literally
the son would like wear like sport jackets

394
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,157
and ties to school and carry a briefcase.
And they kind of wanted to

395
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,277
make him into like a stereotype of like
basically uh you know, sort of a weird

396
00:21:23,360 --> 00:21:26,797
Republican, you know, kind of weirdo.
Um and again, the same the same sort of

397
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,877
weird thing happened, which is actually
the Michael J. Fox character became Oh,

398
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,517
uh Alex Alex Keaton was Alex uh was the
character's name. Uh Alex P. Keaton, um

399
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,957
you know, he essentially became the star
of the show. And so I bring up both of

400
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,997
those shows cuz you can see in those
shows you can see the culture wars of

401
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,917
the '70s, which were actually like super
intense. You can see the culture wars of

402
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:45,757
the '80s, which were super intense.

403
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,037
You go back before that and you have
the Vietnam War and the the all the campus

404
00:21:49,120 --> 00:21:52,277
protests and the civil rights movement
and all the riots and all the forced you

405
00:21:52,360 --> 00:21:55,197
know, everything, you know, dropping the
101st Airborne into you know, rural you

406
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,317
know, the rural South to you know,
basically, you know, desegregate the

407
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,557
schools at literally gunpoint. Um you go
back before that, you have the Cold War,

408
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,317
you know, you have the Red Scare, um you
know, it's now known as the Red Scare,

409
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,477
but you had, you know, communists all
through the US government and you had

410
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,837
all kinds of freak outs about that.
You had the risk of nuclear annihilation.

411
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,757
You go back before that, you had World
War II, which was like this like just like

412
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,157
incredible global orgy of violence.
You go back before that, you had the Great

413
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,877
Depression and the you know, the New
Deal, which was hugely controversial.

414
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,877
You go back before that, you had World
War World War I, you know, and then you

415
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,237
go and then you know, if you keep going
back, it's like you have the Civil War

416
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,397
and then you have the Napoleonic
Wars and then you've got the French

417
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,717
Revolution and you know, and then you
go back further than that, you've got the

418
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,197
you know, the the democratic revolutions
uh all through Europe and then you've

419
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,317
got the you know, the the Gutenberg
printing press kicking off all kinds of

420
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,077
violence, you know, throughout Europe in

421
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,357
the 1600s. Um and so I just think like

422
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:48,037
the history of Western civilization,
American European society is just like

423
00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:51,917
constant strife and warfare to like
an absurd degree um over this entire

424
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,917
period. And we we go back and we study
the history and we're just kind of like,

425
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,357
"Wow, like those people were like really
really really violent. Like really crazy

426
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,717
and really violent." And boy,
did they really like killing.

427
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,877
It was not that long ago and I don't
think there's anybody alive now, but it

428
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,877
was not that long ago that like grown
men like in serious positions of power

429
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,277
and authority in the US that they got
mad at each other, they would literally

430
00:23:13,360 --> 00:23:17,037
have a physical duel. Right?
Like so you know, you and I you

431
00:23:17,120 --> 00:23:19,597
and I start going at it on social media
and we get to a point where you get

432
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,917
really mad and I challenge you to a
duel and like we show up in a field

433
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,757
in a park, you know, at like 6:00
in the morning with guns, right?

434
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,917
And we like square off and march off
and then we turn around and we try to like

435
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,917
literally shoot each other to death.

436
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:36,357
And like a thing that they did
and that was like a normal part of life.

437
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,197
Wait, Mark, I thought the past was all
matriarchies and everyone just so

438
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,517
peaceful and Oh, everybody was so
wonderful. Everybody got along.

439
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,637
Everybody all Yes, until social media
everybody thought the same thing.

440
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,677
Yes, exactly and everybody was all Yes,
everybody was all calm and happy all the

441
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:53,117
time. Um and so You look,
the the the the the the way

442
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,917
the way the way the world is conflict
I just historically the way the world is

443
00:23:56,000 --> 00:24:00,197
conflict and anyway, not to not
to beat a dead horse, but they you know,

444
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,837
There was plenty of conflict in the past.
There were plenty of heated

445
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,117
disagreements in the future shape
of society. There were plenty of political

446
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:06,717
wars. There were plenty of violent wars.

447
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,517
By the way, just politics itself
was much more violent. Like if you go back

448
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,917
and you read about political movements
100 years ago, like they would literally

449
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,157
form up in the street and like
you try to kill each other.

450
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,997
>> Yeah. Um like it
was like a common thing.

451
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,917
You know, strikes I mean even the history
of the labor movement is full of

452
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,917
this. Like strikes became super violent.

453
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,917
Um and you know, management would like
literally you know, this the strikers

454
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,277
would try to attack their plants and
the management literally would have like

455
00:24:27,360 --> 00:24:30,037
machine guns and they'd be like
machine gunning their striking workers.

456
00:24:30,120 --> 00:24:34,877
Crazy crazy stuff. And so like we
just we live in a much crazier world

457
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,397
than we want to give ourselves credit
for and the idea that like the current

458
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,357
level of conflict is something new
is just not true. And and just to that end

459
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,277
too, when people say, "Oh, ever since

460
00:24:42,360 --> 00:24:47,517
2008 or you know, your smartphone
sort of you know, propagating that

461
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,237
it's led to increased depression
or things like that." Is that also another

462
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,917
example of hey, we were underestimating
how depressed people were prior and it's

463
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,357
It's of a measurement thing or is it oh,
but there was a lot of other things

464
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,117
happening in 2018 like you know,
political extremism and and other things

465
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:07,317
that that make people more depressed
or how do you how do you engage in that

466
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,717
that topic? Well, so the funny thing
is different Western countries have

467
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,117
different that show different data
on the quote and quote rise in in

468
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,117
depression. Yeah. Um and it basically
basically turns out it correlates to

469
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,757
social benefits programs.
Um and so basically if you get paid uh

470
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,317
or if you get like special dispensation
in school for having you know,

471
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,677
psychological issues all of a sudden
you see a massive spike in those

472
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,917
psychological issues. The countries
that don't have that the other Western

473
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,197
countries that don't have that don't
show the same results. And so I I

474
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:32,397
actually think that's a statistical
artifact uh of literally like government

475
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,437
benefits programs.
Um so I I like I I don't even yeah, I

476
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,557
would I would say I don't I don't I
don't even I don't even I don't even

477
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,237
concede the uh you know, concede
the premise of the question but that's

478
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:44,197
that's that's a longer debate. Um I
would just say in general like I guess

479
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,637
what I'd say I'm I'm I'm prepared to say
that basically call it since I don't

480
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:51,157
know, 2014 or something I'm prepared
to say like it does feel like things have

481
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,957
intensified. Right, it it it does
feel like things are like wilder.

482
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:56,877
Um you know, than they were before that.

483
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,077
Um I think the most
that I would be willing

484
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,037
to say though is I think we might have
lived through an era of what you might

485
00:26:03,120 --> 00:26:07,997
call suppressed volatility. Um and call
that maybe from like the end of the Cold

486
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,797
War through 2014. Um where
basically it just looked like

487
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:16,077
the West had won everything. Um and then
also it was sort of by the way, it was

488
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:20,197
sort of the peak heyday of centralized
media. Um so it would if you just like

489
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,957
if you basically track if you track
like how distributed is media versus how

490
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,917
centralized is media like centralized
media sort of peaked somewhere around

491
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,877
1970. Um where you know, literally
like all the newspapers in every city

492
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,397
consolidated down to like a single
newspaper and then you ended up with

493
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,877
only three television networks and all
the radio stations independent radio

494
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,597
stations got bought up.
Uh let me give you an example. So

495
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,997
historically so historically like if
you go back to the days of the American

496
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,037
Revolution it was common in in even like
mid-size cities you would have like 10

497
00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:48,597
or 15 different newspapers.
Um and each newspaper would represent

498
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,117
like a different political point of view.
And then the the newspapers would

499
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,517
have these like furious you know,
they've just like just like you you

500
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,237
would do today online. You You They
would just have these furious constant

501
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,277
political, you know, fighting
and accusations back and forth and

502
00:26:58,360 --> 00:27:00,877
arguments. And of course the newspaper
owners would be trying to egg all that

503
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,117
stuff on cuz it sold papers. But it
was like very common to have like many

504
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,037
newspapers per city that would all fight
with each other. And then the economics

505
00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:10,477
of centralized media meant that those all
rolled up into into a single newspaper.

506
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,197
Um and and then and then that single
newspaper, you know, at least for a

507
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,037
while tried to be non-partisan and tried
to be even-handed cuz it was trying to

508
00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:19,917
appeal to everybody.
Um and then and so and again same thing

509
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,317
of just like, you know, like when I
was a kid there was three television

510
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,637
networks that were all basically the same.
Uh they were all trying very hard

511
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,357
to be even-handed at least,
you know, kind of as best they could.

512
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,837
Uh there were like three national news
magazines. Um you know, there were like

513
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,997
I don't know there was a small number
of national radio networks. Um you know,

514
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,477
there were two, you know, news wire
services. And so I like I I I will

515
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,317
concede like I think we lived through
a period of suppressed volatility as a

516
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,517
consequence of the fact that we had
overly centralized media. I think if you

517
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,157
go back before that, like if you go back
to before that, if you go back to like

518
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,517
the 1930s and before, like media
was much more fragmented. Uh it was it was

519
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,477
much more like it is today. And then if
you like I said, if you go all the way

520
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,157
back like 200 250 years ago, it was like
extremely fragmented. Like if you read

521
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,317
the accounts of like Ben Franklin as a
newspaper publisher and like the the the

522
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,677
stuff that he got up to with his
newspaper. So Okay, great story. So Ben

523
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,237
Franklin ran one of the newspapers
in Philadelphia originally as a as a

524
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,517
printer. Okay, so what would happen
is Ben Franklin wants to become a pretty

525
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,597
much become a commercial printer. He
buys a printing press. He advertises the

526
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,437
whatever and tries to get like all the
local businesses like print pamphlets in

527
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,597
the printing press, but he doesn't have
enough business for the printing press.

528
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,357
And so he starts a newspaper
to have something to print.

529
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:22,917
Um and so he starts this newspaper.

530
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,797
There's like 15 other newspapers
in Philadelphia at the time. But he's got

531
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:26,877
to fill the newspaper with something.

532
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,757
And so in he's Ben Franklin, he's very
creative. And so he creates basically

533
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,517
sock puppets.
He does basically He does basically

534
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,157
alts. He does alts. Alts. He does alts.

535
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:39,517
So Yeah, yeah, exactly. Alts. Um
and they're all under pseudonyms. Um and

536
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,117
so he does I forget the all the names
now, but he had, you know, he had all

537
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,037
these different he had all these
different different names for them. And

538
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,197
I think at one point in his own
newspaper he had like 15 different alts

539
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,357
uh going at it. And he he he he wrote
them all but under different names. And

540
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,197
they all had like very different points
of view. And then he would basically set

541
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,797
them off to have these like raging
arguments with each other in his

542
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,877
newspaper. And people would buy his
people would buy his newspaper to cover

543
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,837
this. And then that that culminated
in the election of 1800, which was the

544
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,797
famous election of Thomas Jefferson
versus John Adams, which was sort of

545
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:10,517
this newspaper centric election, which
was characterized by a level of slander.

546
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:14,237
Like the degree to which partisans of
Thomas Jefferson and John Adams attacked

547
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,517
each other in the 1800 election is like
way beyond even what we see today on

548
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,877
social media. Like they accused each
other of the most horrible you can

549
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,957
possibly imagine. Um and it
became like this giant scandal.

550
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,437
And so like this is not the the idea
that there's like whatever rhetorical

551
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,677
combat or like that there's like
this virtual environment in which there's

552
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,597
lots of points of view and there's lots
of, you know, again both lots of truth

553
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,037
truths lots of lies. Like this is not new.
In fact, this this this is the

554
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,637
natural order of things.
We just lived through a period of

555
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,557
artificial volatility and that
artificial suppression of volatility.

556
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,077
Uh with media becoming over centralized.

557
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,597
And and and obviously those days are over.

558
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,997
I want to return back to uh we
were talking about the current

559
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,597
thing and how that's accelerated over
time. We previously had a conversation a

560
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,557
while ago where we talking about sort
of the attributes of of a current thing.

561
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,477
And I remember you had this one
theory that it can't be something too

562
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,997
believable. It has to be almost surreal.

563
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,997
Uh yeah. Um I'm I'm curious if we just
talk kind of what are the attributes of

564
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,517
something that becomes sort of the the
current thing or sort of the the the

565
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,677
topic that people can't stop
quote tweeting, sharing, etc.

566
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,957
Yeah, so again, it's kind
of this thing you kind

567
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,037
of reverse engineer it. It's like, okay,
to be a current thing it it has to if

568
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,917
you know, again to to to be this thing
of if it's on the internet, it's a viral

569
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,597
internet meme kind of outrage cycle.
Um so it it has to be something that like

570
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,317
it has to be something that activates
outrage. Like it has to be something

571
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:37,277
that activates the emotional kind of
valence um of you you have to get like the

572
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,837
emotional reaction off of it. Right.
Um and so you know, it's it's just like by

573
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,437
the way, this is just like also
the history of the press in general.

574
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,477
It's just like whatever you know,
I always say, the news is called the news,

575
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,797
not the importance, right?
Like you can imagine a version of the news

576
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,317
that's called the importance. And and
the newspaper is like here are all the

577
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,117
important things that are happening today.

578
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,797
Right? Um and you know, of course nobody
would buy it cuz nobody cares, right?

579
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,837
Cuz people want the news, they want the
new what the new thing, right? They want

580
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,037
or you know, they want they want the hot
thing, they want the exciting thing,

581
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,597
they want the they want the outrageous
thing and and so the the internet

582
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,637
version of that is right, they want they
want the outrageous meme and so so it's

583
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,197
got to be something that provokes.
And you know, and there's something about

584
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,637
this, you know, this this is other
people made this observation but you

585
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,077
know, it's like you know,
kind of the ultimate male

586
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,757
coded version of this is professional
wrestling, right? The ultimate female

587
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,037
coded version of this
is like Real Housewives.

588
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,997
Like you know, reality TV,
like you know, I don't know and then The

589
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,637
Apprentice is maybe
somewhere in the middle.

590
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,957
You know, it's just like reality TV,
like there there has to be there has to

591
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,397
be sparks. Like it has to generate
a level of emotional intensity.

592
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,877
Driven by some level of outrage and then
and then I think it has to be the kind

593
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,997
of thing where you can have tribes
that form up and square off against each

594
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,357
other, right? So um so you know, there's
a little bit like like like West Side

595
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:44,637
Story dynamic to it or something, right?

596
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,637
Where it's just like, okay, you can
imagine, you know, there's there's

597
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,597
something that's worth arguing over.

598
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,437
Um where where there's a you know, where
there's a real argument to be had. Like

599
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,837
there you know, there's there's some
underlying thing that actually like

600
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,437
really matters. Maybe maybe this event
doesn't matter as much but like the

601
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,437
actual underlying issue matters a lot.

602
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,517
Um and then it's going to it's going to
activate this tribal effect where you're

603
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,117
going to be able to basically you're
you're going to become part of what they

604
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,597
call a moral tribe. The the people
on the other side will become part of a

605
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,757
moral tribe and then you're going
to kind of go to war with each other.

606
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,557
You're you're going to have a rumble,
what they would have said in the old

607
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,917
days. You're going to have a rumble.
A rumble in the streets, except you're not

608
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:15,917
going to have a rumble in the streets,
you're going to have a rumble online,

609
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,317
right? You're going to go at it. And so
it has to lend itself to that kind of

610
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:23,317
basically tribal formation um and and
and and and and kind of that beating

611
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,677
back and forth. And of course you you
the tribes then attack each other, you

612
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,717
know, on the issues but then they also
attack each other's values um and they

613
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,837
accuse each other of being horrible
people. And then when it gets really

614
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,877
into it, they start to dox each other
and try to get each other fired. Right?

615
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,757
And then it all becomes,
you know, very exciting.

616
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,557
Um and so so it's got to have it's got
to have the it's basically it has to

617
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,997
have the formation of a of a of a moral
tribe effect. It it's a the the

618
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,277
psychological lens on this they call
moral tribes and then there's this

619
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,597
concept right of moral panic. Uh, it's
got to lead to a moral panic. It's got

620
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,477
to lead to this kind of thing of like
this is indicative of how society is

621
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,757
going to right?
In in in like some important way.

622
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,157
Um, and by the way, this is why you can
have like many many many many different

623
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,317
examples occurring things that end up
revolving back around the same handful

624
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,237
of like underlying political or moral
questions, right? Cuz cuz it's really

625
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,237
right. It's really not about the,
you know, what happened, you know, I don't

626
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:14,317
Jussie Smollett. I I just
want to say there's this new uh

627
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,917
there's this new um there's
this new uh Keanu Reeves movie

628
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,637
on on Apple TV um where uh Keanu Reeves
plays a movie star who gets canceled.

629
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,197
Um, and his crisis lawyer played
by Jonah Hill. Uh it turns out during the

630
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,797
course of the show, I'll I'll just spoil
it in course of the movie, it turns out

631
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:32,357
his his crisis lawyer uh set up
the uh the the Jussie Smollett

632
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,517
uh was was was off it
was it was a produced op. Um,

633
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:39,157
So so so in the movie world the lawyer
came up with the idea um that there

634
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,637
would be a black celebrity who would get
attacked in the street by white racists

635
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,117
and that would be like a viral social
media outrage thing and then and then

636
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,877
literally the lawyer says, "Well, then
we of course we went on cast and Jussie

637
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,837
Smollett had the best pitch for why he
should be he should be the black guy."

638
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,957
Um, and then um and then um there was one
of his underlings he he's still mad

639
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:58,117
at because the uh the um
the underling was was tasked

640
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,277
with the assignment of going out and
hiring, you know, the attackers. Um, but

641
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,437
you know, this is in the heady of
diversity and so he hired two black guys

642
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,797
to be the attackers. Right?
And he's like all confused cuz

643
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:08,837
he's like, "Am I supposed to hire black
people not hire black people?" And it's

644
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,917
like, "Well, not in this specific case
you weren't supposed to hire black people

645
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:17,117
to attack Jussie Smollett."
Anyway, so the Jussie Smollett

646
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,557
is fresh in my mind. Um, but it
was a great example which is like what

647
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:24,357
happened on the street in Chicago
that night during the whatever whatever

648
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,357
blizzard cyclone thing it was like
kind of matters, kind of doesn't matter.

649
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,037
Whoever really knows, who knows whatever.
We've got weird grainy video,

650
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,357
whatever. People say different things.
I mean, I think we now know what happened,

651
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,917
but like in these events, like what
actually happened in the street? Who the

652
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,037
hell knows? But the fight,
you see what I'm saying? Like

653
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,717
the moral tribes that were able to form
up on, you know, one side or people are

654
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:44,797
like, of course this is what, you know,
this is what happens to people all the

655
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,157
time. And the people on the other side
of it were like, of course this is all

656
00:34:47,240 --> 00:34:50,197
fake and Right? You had this You
had this chance for these moral

657
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,477
tribes to to to pair up and fight.
Um and so so I think I think it basically

658
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,037
had I think it basically it it
it basically has to have that.

659
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,957
Yeah, and sometimes it's very serious
uh and and the stakes are very high and

660
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,317
sometimes it's uh just
an episode that's so

661
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,677
you know, funny and the
astronomer uh CEO HR as a

662
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:14,077
as an example. Uh Okay, so well this Okay,
this is a very important point. So

663
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:19,157
very important point. So I would say two
things. So one is um the truth or falsity

664
00:35:19,240 --> 00:35:23,200
of the actual event doesn't
seem to matter at all.

665
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,277
And and I think this is I think this
actually throws people cuz you start to

666
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,957
think these are all fake and they're
not all fake. Like actual actually bad

667
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,597
things happen. Right?
Actually bad things happen and

668
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,597
it's actually like fully legitimate
to get outraged about these things. But

669
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,797
also people are going to get outraged
about a lot of things that actually

670
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,957
didn't happen. Um and so so so for
the purpose of the discussion of of the

671
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,237
media again, this is the Marshall
McLuhan thing. If it's on the internet,

672
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:44,797
it's a viral social media outrage cycle.

673
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,717
Like whatever are the facts of the thing,
it doesn't really matter. In

674
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,517
fact, it's probably best to your point.

675
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,237
It's probably best if it's actually
hard to tell what actually happened.

676
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,117
Cuz that makes it something that you can
more easily argue about. And so that's

677
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,517
one thing. And then to the point that you
just made, I really agree with that

678
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,437
also, which is um the the degree
of importance of the actual issue doesn't

679
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:05,517
matter that much. Right? And so if it
if so if something happens to a single

680
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,957
person, you can and then something
happens to 10,000 people, you can have

681
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,397
the same level of outrage in in each case.

682
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,997
Like the the outrage doesn't scale
with the number of people affected.

683
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,877
Right? In a lot of In a lot of ways,
maybe the outrage is even higher when

684
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,037
it's a specific person cuz it's because
then it becomes personalized. Yeah. And

685
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,797
then and then you get in the old uh what
is it? The old Stalin thing, which is a

686
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,237
single death of a tragedy, a million
deaths is a statistic. Like may maybe

687
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,237
it's even the small scale horrible
things that happen that are the most

688
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,317
emotionally intense cuz they're
the things that you really you know you're

689
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,077
going to you're going to react to a
person. You know kind of kind of the

690
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,877
most intensely. And so so and I think
that's the thing if you're if you're

691
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,797
doing the meta observation of this it's
like okay you're just going to you

692
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,997
basically you just have to expect
the same phenomenon this outrage cycle to

693
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,277
play out every time regardless of truth
or falsehood and regardless of the

694
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,677
actual magnitude of the
underlying issue because

695
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,037
because again what's being argued about
is the specifics about what actually

696
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,277
happened. That's not the point.
The point is the ability to form up into

697
00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:00,837
moral tribes and then and then yeah
and then have the rumble. Yeah. Oh

698
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:05,597
there's a George Orwell um actually
has a has a great thing on this

699
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,917
cuz George Orwell famously covered
the Spanish Civil War which which was as I

700
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,917
said it's kind of the it's kind of the
original where a lot of this stuff sort

701
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,477
of played out for the first time in
the 20th century and he he he did he did

702
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,037
this thing one time where he talks about
his version of this. He talks about the

703
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:19,557
role of the atrocity.

704
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:21,957
Um and he said basically the the key

705
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:26,917
point of propaganda in any war um so you
you get two countries to go to war and

706
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,477
you know they've each got a moral claim
of like why they're the justified you

707
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,357
know it's like nobody ever attacks
everybody's always defending like and I

708
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,437
only attacked him first cuz he was going
to attack me otherwise. And so every

709
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:39,757
each side in a war each country has its
own basically moral position why the why

710
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,957
the war is justified. But he said he
said basically Orwell said like it's

711
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,237
hard to sell like high it's hard to sell

712
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:50,277
like these high blown you know these
high high flying kind of abstract ideas

713
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,837
of like why we need to go to war. And so
he said what what happens is that the

714
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,997
propaganda efforts of each government
in a war become basically looking for

715
00:37:56,080 --> 00:38:00,077
atrocities. Um and so
specific point events. A famous

716
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,357
one is the My Lai Massacre in in in
Vietnam. But you you could you could we

717
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:07,397
could name many many other examples.
Um and so you're looking for these very

718
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,477
specific events where something very
specific and concrete happened that's

719
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,917
clearly over the moral
beyond beyond the realm of

720
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,757
of moral acceptability. Right?
Just clearly like you know

721
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:19,957
usually involving innocent
people getting killed.

722
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,317
And in the Spanish Civil War it
was like you know nuns getting killed or

723
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,437
something like that, right?
Um and and and again, it's the the the

724
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,877
the point of the atrocity The point
of the atrocity is not that it affected

725
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,237
100,000 people. The point of the
atrocity is in fact, maybe the best

726
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,197
atrocity only affects a small number
of people cuz you want to personalize it.

727
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,037
Um and then he said he he he says this.

728
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,037
He says, "The truth or falsity
of the atrocity doesn't matter at all."

729
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:44,157
Like it it it the atrocity If the atrocity
is made up, it it it it the the

730
00:38:44,240 --> 00:38:47,717
the political value of the
atrocity is just as high.

731
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:52,237
Right? And so it it doesn't matter. Like
once the atrocity cycle gets running, um

732
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,077
it doesn't matter whether the underlying
thing is true or false because the

733
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,797
because the point of it is to have the
have the atrocity be a propaganda win uh

734
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,637
for for moral for moral for moral
justification and then and then for

735
00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:03,797
moral demonization of the other side.

736
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,597
And by the way, lest lest people think
that I'm being cynical when I go through

737
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,917
all this, I'm not saying I think this is
all good. Like I I'm not saying I think

738
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,717
this this world is great. I'm not
saying that this I think that this is all

739
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,677
positive. Um I I'm saying something
different, which is I think it's very

740
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,637
important to understand how this
actually works. Because when you find

741
00:39:20,720 --> 00:39:23,557
yourself in the middle of one of these
things, I think it's very useful to have

742
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:26,077
at least a slice of your brain that's
basically saying, "All right, I need to

743
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:30,557
be aware of the fact that I'm getting
pulled into something, right? That I'm

744
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:34,197
being triggered by emotion and I'm being
triggered and I'm being slotted into a a

745
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,877
moral tribe and I'm and I'm mounting
up to go to war with the hated enemy and

746
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:41,797
it's on the basis of something that
very well might not be true." Yeah.

747
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,957
Right? And I and I and this, you know,
this is a the Rene Girard thing, which

748
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,877
he says this the scapegoating cycle
always works because people always

749
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,637
forget that there's
a scapegoating cycle. Like Like

750
00:39:50,720 --> 00:39:54,237
whenever you have to like crucify the
scapegoat, it's always the most morally

751
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,797
important thing that's ever happened.

752
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,837
For the duration of that cycle, right?

753
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,237
And until it's forgotten by the next one.
Yeah. And so And so a big part of

754
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:06,317
what I'm trying to do is explain why
like as as as we surf all of these

755
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,837
current things, that we like at least
keep part of our brain that basically

756
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,677
says, "Look, th- this is the state
of the world we live in. This is the state

757
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:16,237
of humanity. This is the state of the
media. Like this is what's happening. We

758
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,877
can like it or hate it or we can debate
the pros and cons, but it is what's

759
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,277
happening, and all objective events are
going to be filtered through that. And

760
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,557
to the extent that you care about
objective truth, you have to get through

761
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,397
that, and you have to get to the other
side to be able to actually still deal

762
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,957
with objective reality. But But to do
that, you need to understand the the

763
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,557
cycle. And it's also important
to understand cuz if if people are ever

764
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,957
involved in the cycle or implicated in it,
they typically say, "Oh, but I'm

765
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,837
innocent. Once everyone finds out
the truth, they're they're going to

766
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:42,437
exonerate me. They're going to clear me."
And they of course don't fully

767
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,477
appreciate that people don't give
a People are, you know, predisposed to to

768
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,357
to hate you, and they'll just find
any sort of reason, uh, you know, or or

769
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,997
certain people, perhaps. Yes.
Yes. Yes. If Yes. If you are Yes.

770
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,317
If you are actually in a If you are
actually innocent, and if you're caught

771
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:58,477
up in one of these things, it's it's
horrifying. It's horrifying. I mean,

772
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,957
look at cancellation. I mean, this this
happened to a lot of people over the

773
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,517
last decade. You know, people people
would get canceled for things they

774
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,997
literally never did, and for, you know,
for for for people then imputing

775
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,277
beliefs, or, you know, some I don't
know, stray comment, or misreported

776
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,797
comment, and then it gets imputed that,
you know, this person is a horrible

777
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:12,997
racist, and off and away it goes,
and they have to get fired and purged from

778
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,837
society, and, you know, have no way
to come back. Or or, you know, or whatever

779
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,037
the issue was, right? Um, and, you know,
we you know, there were these you know,

780
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,037
these viral videos viral video you know,
Oh, that's the other thing is like,

781
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,397
okay, the the viral videos
The viral videos, right? The viral

782
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:29,077
videos have viral videos have become
so much like the By the way, the first

783
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:33,277
viral video that mattered
was actually a Rodney King. Um

784
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,317
And it would And it actually inaugurate
And I'm not going to I'm not going to

785
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,197
litigate the Rodney King good or bad
or whatever. It's a the whole separate

786
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:42,357
conversation, but um the Rodney
King video starts with the beating.

787
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,637
Um so, it doesn't show everything that led
up to that. And And And that set the

788
00:41:45,720 --> 00:41:48,677
pattern. And again, I'm not I'm
not excusing anybody for anything or

789
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:52,517
whatever. I'm just saying like the video
started midway through the event. Um All

790
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,597
of the really effective viral videos
basically since then, including the ones

791
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,677
that have been really important over
the course of the last decade, they've all

792
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,397
had that characteristic.
They all start halfway through the event.

793
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:04,557
Um so, you you don't see the run-up.
Um and so, you don't you know, the Central

794
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,357
Park birdwatcher was the famous like
you don't see the run-up of what happened

795
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,837
before the before
before the video started.

796
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,557
Um what was the other one? Who
was the other person who got like brutally

797
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:14,837
canceled based on a video? I can't
remember. I mean, there've been a whole

798
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,997
bunch of them. But, um this is the thing.
Right. And so, you you you get a

799
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:21,597
viral video and it kicks off halfway
into the event. Why does it kick By the

800
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,117
way, why does it kick off halfway into
the event? That's because that's when

801
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:27,117
the event became interesting
enough to be able to put on a video.

802
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,317
Like that's what People don't just
like walk around with their phones out.

803
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:31,997
That's when they pull the phone out.

804
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,637
But, by that point, you've lost all
the context. Right? And so, so then again,

805
00:42:35,720 --> 00:42:38,077
this is one of those things where, okay,
you're watching a viral video, you can

806
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,157
feel yourself getting outraged. The key
question ought to be, all right, what

807
00:42:41,240 --> 00:42:45,997
happened before that? Right?
And you And that takes work,

808
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,317
right? Like cuz it's not it's not right
there on the screen. And you have to

809
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,877
like really try hard to like go back and
like figure out eyewitness reports. And

810
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,037
by the way, like if it's a criminal thing,
half the time you don't find out

811
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,357
what happened until the actual trial
happens. So, you don't find out for like

812
00:42:56,440 --> 00:43:00,197
another year. Because they don't put the
evidence out until the trial. Um and so,

813
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,117
that that's another thing where people
get got basically people get used

814
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,157
basically people get ginned up into
these outrage cycles without actually

815
00:43:06,240 --> 00:43:07,557
having the context of what happened.

816
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,877
Yeah. The I want to go
back to this conspiracy you

817
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,797
know, we have a a friend who thinks
everything is an op and maybe I'm naive

818
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,277
and I miss out on on the ops that are
actually there. But, I'm I'm curious

819
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,917
what your mental model one might have to

820
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:26,357
think about how much is coordinated
versus not. I've I've I've been inspired

821
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,637
by the idea of uh uh decentrali-
or emergent collusion. Uh

822
00:43:30,720 --> 00:43:34,397
just sort of um this this idea that a
lot of people have incentives to go in

823
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,637
the same way that even if they're not
coordinating explicitly, they almost

824
00:43:37,720 --> 00:43:40,917
might as well be or something
that that or that it might explain

825
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,637
why so many things seem uh coordinated.

826
00:43:43,720 --> 00:43:48,157
But, you know, ever since joining A16Z,
so many people have impuned onto us

827
00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:52,117
things that we're not doing. And so,
it's made me skeptical of uh of people

828
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:55,717
calling for conspiracy. Um and and so,
I'm curious what what sort of mental

829
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,317
model you might have for for for the

830
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:02,917
idea of ops and how that might help one
understand the the the social platforms

831
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:07,197
today. Yeah, so I think
as best I can tell, and

832
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,597
it's tricky cuz it's hard to tell.
Um and there are, you know, some real

833
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,997
experts in this that really really focus
on this. But, um as far as I can tell,

834
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:16,717
like there there's some there's there
there's some truth on both sides. Um

835
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,237
the the the the the the answer is um is
the answer is messy. And it's it's messy

836
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,637
for two reasons. So, messy number one is
just like there are a lot of things that

837
00:44:22,720 --> 00:44:24,757
I think are happening that are truly
organic. And then there are a lot of

838
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:26,397
things that are happening that are ops.

839
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:29,797
Um and I I think I think there's
a combination. And then and then I think

840
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,637
maybe you were alluding to this.
And then there's this thing which is like

841
00:44:32,720 --> 00:44:36,117
something could start
as an op and then become real.

842
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,877
Right? Um which is kind of the point
of the op, right? The the the

843
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,837
Right? The If you Let's just say if you
and I are going to be Machiavellian and

844
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,317
we wanted to start a movement, right?

845
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,797
And I And we wanted to start a moral
outrage cycle cuz we had some underlying

846
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,357
goal cuz we were either trying to win
an election or trying to get a political

847
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,957
something, you know, law passed
or something like that. We were going to

848
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,277
like we're maximum like Machiavellian
deviousness and we're going to like have

849
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,277
a black budget, you know, and we're
going to pay influencers to you know, da

850
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,397
da da all this stuff that people say,
you know, bot we're going to have our

851
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,957
bot army and so forth. Like the point
of it is not to just like have a bunch of

852
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,837
propaganda online with a with a bot army
behind it. The point is to get people to

853
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:11,117
actually believe it. Right?
Like that is the goal.

854
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:14,877
Right? And so and and and and then you
know, you don't want to have to pay for

855
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:16,837
like every post, right? At some
point you want them to be happening

856
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,317
organically even just out of out
of self-economic interest. And so you you

857
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,357
actually you're actually trying
to generate uh you're actually trying to

858
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:26,037
generate uh the thing. Actually,
there's there's a great paper on this. Um

859
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:30,117
There's a guy Timur Kuran and and uh
who's the famous sort of a guy who talks

860
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,197
about preference falsification. And then
Cass Sunstein um wrote this thing years

861
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,917
ago or they they talk about this
phenomenon relevant here. They call it

862
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,797
availability cascades. So, their term
for this kind of thing that we've been

863
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,957
talking about, which is like a viral
outrage cycle, uh their term for it they

864
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:47,357
call availability cascade. And what they
mean by availability cascade is sort of

865
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:51,117
cascade means basically the process it's
the sociological term for sort of an an

866
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,557
idea or concept kind of cascading
through a society kind of building a

867
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:57,237
momentum as it goes. And then
availability they they they they call

868
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,797
based on the idea of availability bias,
which basically is we we to overfocus on

869
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,397
the thing that's right in front of us.

870
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,637
Um and so we we tend to over focus
on the thing that's basically present in

871
00:46:05,720 --> 00:46:08,677
our mind at that time, which may or may
or may not be as important as other

872
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,957
things that we're not focused on. But
But in the paper the significance of it

873
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,957
is in the paper they identify the role
of a specific kind of person they call

874
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:18,917
availability entrepreneur.
Um and the the role of the availability

875
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,597
entrepreneur is to try to inject into
the public consciousness availability

876
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:26,517
bias as a deliberate exercise
to basically say, "This is the specific

877
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,637
thing that you should
be focused on right now."

878
00:46:28,720 --> 00:46:31,637
Like this is the specific person who's
been hurt by something. This is the

879
00:46:31,720 --> 00:46:35,317
specific whatever, you know, moral event
that's happened. This is the specific

880
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,637
issue. This is the specific thing.
And And basically what they say is like

881
00:46:38,720 --> 00:46:41,397
every time you see an availability
cascade, if you trace it back there was

882
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,517
always what they call the availability
entrepreneur, which is basically the

883
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:47,157
person who was like, "Aha, I am going
to put I know I'll give you the classic

884
00:46:47,240 --> 00:46:49,917
example. And And again, this is not
a value judgment and you know, this this

885
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,957
was like you know, fantastically good
that this happened. But Rosa Parks was a

886
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:57,397
classic example of this. Like Rosa Like
the story that we all got told at school

887
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,117
was Rosa Parks was just like another you
know, some sort of random person and you

888
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,637
know, with with the thing on the bus.
Um Rosa Parks was like an actual She was a

889
00:47:03,720 --> 00:47:06,237
trained activist. Like that she she went
to like the There was this whole like

890
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,037
school of activists and they like she
was like a specifically trained It was

891
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,557
an It was There was an availability
entrepreneur uh uh who set up an

892
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:15,917
availability cascade targeted on Rosa
Parks that ended up causing fundamental

893
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:20,117
and obviously very very positive
changes to American society. But like

894
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,357
it started as an op. Like she started as
a She started as an op. But the point of

895
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:26,157
the op was not to be the op. The The
point of it was to be what happened,

896
00:47:26,240 --> 00:47:28,597
which is to become a nationwide movement
that that ultimately led to led to

897
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,677
fundamental change. And so And so anyway,
the point is like just because

898
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:34,317
things start as ops doesn't
mean they're not real.

899
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,077
Right? And And And And And And And
if the And if the op leads to real

900
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:40,557
outcomes, then you might as well
consider you know, it's like a At some

901
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,237
point it's just a matter for historians
of how it started. Like it's a footnote

902
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,957
to the Rosa Parks story today that she
was a trained activist. It doesn't

903
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:49,557
really matter because she
because that op unlocked a

904
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:53,037
broad-based actual movement in American
society that led to actually profound

905
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,797
change. Um and so this is
the problem with this topic,

906
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,917
which is oh, that's just an op. Is

907
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:03,597
basically like cope. Like, okay, right?

908
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:05,957
It might have started as an op.

909
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,317
But if it ends up in a real thing,
it doesn't You see what I'm saying? It

910
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,237
doesn't matter that it started as an op.

911
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:13,317
Right. Uh and then by the way,
conversely, it also doesn't matter if it

912
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:17,037
didn't start as an Because again, it's

913
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:20,437
it's the same outcome. And so So,
I do think I think I think both things are

914
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,797
true. I do think there's this furious
fight. I do think there are serious

915
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:26,837
operators. And you know, you can go online
and you can find out about these things.

916
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,517
This is a big issue, by the way,
in political influencer world right now.

917
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:30,637
This is This is actually a big thing.

918
00:48:30,720 --> 00:48:35,597
So, um if I want to run
an advertising campaign to

919
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:39,717
sell shampoo, um legally
in the US, if I hire

920
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,317
influencers to say good things about
the shampoo, they I I believe this to be

921
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,797
true, they have to disclose
that it's a paid commercial.

922
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,077
They can't just like pretend that they
just happen to stumble on this shampoo.

923
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:54,117
Um if I donate money
to a political candidate,

924
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:58,077
I have to disclose that as part
of election federal election law.

925
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:00,877
Um if I pay an influencer to take a

926
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:05,917
position on a moral topic that is not
a product that is sold or a political

927
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,517
candidate, but it's just
like a position on a moral

928
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:12,037
or political thing, that doesn't qualify
either as an advertisement or as a

929
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:15,637
political donation. It's fully
legal to do that in the dark.

930
00:49:15,720 --> 00:49:19,397
Yeah. Well, right.
AI, right? A lot of a lot

931
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:23,827
of paid doom out there. We were
just talking about Aella's, you know,

932
00:49:23,910 --> 00:49:26,837
>> [laughter] >> a new
media fellowship for doomers.

933
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:31,317
And yeah, it's a perfect example and it,
you know, seems to be having a

934
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,197
real impact. This is a great
example. So, this is the

935
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,957
thing, right? You know, they're they're
living the meme, right? They're living

936
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,877
the meme. So, cuz cuz so
so this is a good So, so

937
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,877
I don't know if you you you may have
covered all this already, but yeah. So,

938
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,197
so like there we we know we're in this AI
we're in this pitch AI policy battle

939
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,637
and we we know through that and we
we're we're deep into this. We know that

940
00:49:48,720 --> 00:49:51,637
there's dark money in in AI. Like, a lot
of the AI doomers and stuff is basically

941
00:49:51,720 --> 00:49:54,237
bought and paid for. Like so there's
this these influence operations that are

942
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,557
happening and they fall into this bucket
of it it's it's it's neither an

943
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:00,037
advertisement to say AI is going
to kill everybody nor is it a political

944
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,237
candidate. And so you there are
organizations and companies that are

945
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,117
paying that you know that they're
they're they're there's that and again

946
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,357
it's like not not everybody who says
that is is is being paid but that there

947
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:13,717
there is a lot of dark money in in that
in in that world right now. Um and so

948
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:15,957
and of course you know that the
partisans in that world insist full on

949
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,157
of course that there's you know
that that of course is absolutely not

950
00:50:18,240 --> 00:50:21,637
happening until yesterday. Um when they
just go ahead and like live the meme and

951
00:50:21,720 --> 00:50:25,077
they just like announce the program.
Um and so >> [laughter]

952
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:29,197
>> So they announce the program in black
and white um right there on the website.

953
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,317
It's like a influencer camp in which
you're going to go did that that that

954
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,397
that and by the way it's free right
which means you know you're you know

955
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:36,957
you're being you're being paid.

956
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,997
Um and then they say you know where's
the money coming from and they say oh

957
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,437
you know we're a non-profit being funded
by by in this case MIRI which is one one

958
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,837
one one organization with its own kind
of interesting funding history. And then

959
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:52,397
they say and other donors.
Right then they Right. It's like

960
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,397
It's literally you know it's literally
like it's it's literally like is it you

961
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:59,237
I don't know is it a conspiracy
if it's in plain sight?

962
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,437
But and I'm just I'm picking on that
one cuz that's the one that happened

963
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:04,357
yesterday but like that that for sure
is happening all throughout politics. It's

964
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,877
for sure happening on lots
and lots of social issues.

965
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:11,837
Um you know it's it's it's a it's a thing.
Um uh and so yeah and so like but

966
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,357
again it goes back to this thing of like
okay yes there are ops. Yes you can't

967
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,717
believe what you see. By the way there
there are there are there are bot farms.

968
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:20,717
Like there are obviously bot farms. Um
and they're obviously bot farms that are

969
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,197
being deployed. You know there there
are online influencers some of them very

970
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:25,597
controversial where you know they
clearly there's clearly a bot army

971
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:29,437
behind them. By the way you could be
an influencer online and have a bot army

972
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:31,757
behind you and have nothing
to do with a bot army.

973
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:34,637
Right. Like somebody could be paying for
the bot army and you might not even know

974
00:51:34,720 --> 00:51:38,237
about it. Um and again
today it's totally legal to

975
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:41,357
do that cuz again if it's if you're not
selling a product or not donating to a

976
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,837
political candidate like it's it's
actually in this gray it's actually fine

977
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,757
to do. And so I think it's It's
the case that like there's ops all over

978
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:49,917
the place and quite frankly, like
the longer I I you more deeper I get into

979
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,357
it, the more like, yeah, there's
probably more ops than I've been that

980
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:56,277
I've been um that I that I've been I've
been uh willing to acknowledge. Um but,

981
00:51:56,360 --> 00:52:00,397
I would just say on the other side, it's
like I don't know. Does it really matter?

982
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:05,037
Like is that really the thing that the cuz
the ops are only going to work the other

983
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,277
way to put it is the ops are only going
to work if they if they resonate into

984
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,437
something that people are
going to pick up and run with

985
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:14,917
you know, anyway. Like to become a mass
movement, this is like what Timur Kuran

986
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:18,117
says about the role of the availability
like, it's not enough to just like have

987
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:20,877
your cause and then just
like expect that you can

988
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:24,157
kind of trick people into running with
your cause. There has to be something to

989
00:52:24,240 --> 00:52:28,117
it that resonates with them. Uh you
know, kind of in them already. Um the

990
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:32,557
causes the causes the causes them to Uh
and and if if maybe they pick it up

991
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:34,677
and run with it based on the paid op,
and and by the way, maybe in the

992
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:36,917
counterfactual they would have picked
up and run with it anyway, you know,

993
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,677
without the op, and you know,
you'll never know. Yeah.

994
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:43,797
The um that that's a great
mental model for it.

995
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:47,317
Think about a last topic for today.
I want to close uh close on the say sort

996
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:52,077
of the bridge between legacy and new
media because we see just give some

997
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,677
examples. Obviously, the New York Times
they've made the adjustment to the new

998
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:58,637
world um very well from a business
perspective. You know, we had um CBS

999
00:52:58,720 --> 00:53:02,517
acquire the Free Press, and so there's
some, you know, acquisitions there uh

1000
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:05,757
strategic acquisitions for legacy media
companies who are trying to innovate.

1001
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:10,077
You know, uh on MTS ourselves, we're
sort of experimenting with with players

1002
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:14,077
from both worlds. You know, we have
um new school of podcasters and Twitch

1003
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,957
streamer, you know,
Theo is Theo is 21 years old?

1004
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:20,917
Yeah. 20 Yeah, he's born to be
a a Twitch streamer, but we also have I

1005
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:24,867
mean, 21, I mean, over the hill.
Yeah, exactly. What, you know?

1006
00:53:24,950 --> 00:53:28,117
>> [laughter] >> Has been by now.
Gray hair, gray hair.

1007
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,917
Washed. Yeah, washed.

1008
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,157
But, we also have Mark Halperin who uh

1009
00:53:33,240 --> 00:53:38,077
you know, as a you know, legacy
and legendary um you know, uh commentator

1010
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:41,277
and host who who funny enough uh
Uh, know, we've talked about how

1011
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,477
is the is the bridge figure uh in that

1012
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:48,437
he was successful both in legacy and
in this new media media climate. Um, and

1013
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:49,357
it's rare for people to do both.

1014
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,317
Halperin, of course, interviewed did
a very famous interview with Trump when he

1015
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:55,557
was talking about the Bible verses and

1016
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:59,517
getting getting him uh to mention
some specific ones and you

1017
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:02,397
know, Trump of course didn't
want to pick favorites. Um,

1018
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:06,357
anyway, I'm I'm curious how you
think about the sort of the bridge um

1019
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:10,237
either analysis of Trump as a
bridge or or more just how do

1020
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,677
you see legacy players and new media

1021
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,517
players um sort of you know, playing out

1022
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:17,557
or even the styles of what will work in

1023
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:22,557
this new new format.
Yeah, I mean, so I guess

1024
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,917
I don't know, you maybe start with data,
right? So, um the data shows that

1025
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:28,480
basically

1026
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,717
Um, so if you focus on American data cuz
what I'm most familiar with. So, just in

1027
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,917
the data you basically see a couple
things. So, one is um trust in

1028
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:40,117
centralized institutions of all kinds
is is collapsing in the US. Um, so

1029
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:44,437
basically any kind of legacy um or um

1030
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:47,757
incumbent institution you know,
trust is collapsing fast. By the way, that

1031
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:50,477
collapse in trust didn't start with
the internet. It actually started around

1032
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:53,277
1970. Um, it actually

1033
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:54,717
uh it actually it's it's part of this

1034
00:54:54,800 --> 00:55:00,357
it's part of this WTF happened in 1971
uh meme um is when basically trust in

1035
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:03,037
centralized institutions in the
US started to fall off a cliff.

1036
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:05,437
Um, that's true for many kinds
of centralized institutions and it's been

1037
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:07,717
true for you know, basically 55 years.

1038
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:09,837
Um, but but media's included in that.

1039
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,597
Um, and so trust in centralized media
is collapsing and you know, keeps hitting

1040
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,797
new record lows basically every time
they run the survey it collapses further.

1041
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,517
Um, and so so that's certainly true.
And then you and then the the business

1042
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:22,277
version of it is just very clear which
is you know, we've talked about CNN

1043
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,557
later like you're earlier like you know,
ratings for all the centralized media

1044
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:27,517
properties are in full scale collapse.

1045
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:29,237
Um, you know, cable news is collapsing.

1046
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,077
Um, you know, almost every almost every
newspaper has collapsed. Um, almost

1047
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,437
every magazine has collapsed. Um,
you know, basically all the all the all

1048
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:39,237
the legacy formats have collapsed.
Um Uh you know, with only very very rare

1049
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:43,477
exceptions. Um and so, you know, just
and then by the way, of course, finally,

1050
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,157
it's just sort of obvious, you know,
the the rise of podcasts obviously is is

1051
00:55:46,240 --> 00:55:48,757
obvious now. Um and by the way,
it's amazing like the

1052
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:51,797
election of '24 was the one where
podcasts kind of flipped the you know,

1053
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:54,037
it went from being like, I don't know
if this matters to like all of a sudden

1054
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:57,757
everybody's like, oh wow, this matters
like a lot. Um and so, the rise of

1055
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,557
podcasts of course is undeniable at
this point. The rise of social media, the

1056
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,517
rise of of live streaming. Um you know,
these things are clearly happening. And

1057
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:06,837
so, like the the the the changing of the
guard, reordering of the the businesses

1058
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:10,357
and of the cultural and social phenomena
are clearly happening and I think are

1059
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:14,917
undeniable. Um you know, if you
extrapolate forward, like obviously all

1060
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,237
you know, essentially all of the
remaining old media properties that

1061
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,077
don't figure out a way to adapt uh
to the new world are going to you know,

1062
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:22,597
they're they're you know,
going to get basically run

1063
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:25,797
as my private equity and that'll be that.
Um you know, which is kind of the

1064
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,557
story of the newspaper
industry industry these days. Um

1065
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:31,557
so so I you know, that that like it's
almost like not even interesting to say

1066
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:34,197
that anymore just cuz it's like it's so
obvious that that's happening and then,

1067
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,517
you know, obviously social media, you
know, continues to grow as a phenomenon.

1068
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:41,237
Um uh continues to be very important. Um

1069
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:44,637
uh and so, yeah. And you know, look,
we're still we're still living in this

1070
00:56:44,720 --> 00:56:47,597
we're we're still living in a in a
hybrid world today, right? Um and so,

1071
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:50,957
we're still living in a world um
in which like, you know, to some extent it

1072
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:53,957
still matters what's on TV, but like not
nearly as much as it did, but you know,

1073
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:57,637
pretty soon it's not it's not going
to anymore. So, uh you know, so so so that

1074
00:56:57,720 --> 00:57:01,277
world is changing fast.
Um yeah, I I just think yeah, the

1075
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:04,597
the main thing is going to be um you
know, the the the the people who adapt

1076
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:07,717
to that are are people who adapt
to that are going to adapt to that. Um and

1077
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:09,917
they're they're either going to adapt
or they're not. Um you know, you mentioned

1078
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,597
Mark Mark Halperin, you know, who's
a good good friend of both of ours. Um and

1079
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:15,637
you know, he's I think he's doing like
an amazing job adapting to that and in a

1080
00:57:15,720 --> 00:57:18,477
way that's just like I would say
shockingly different um and better than

1081
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,797
you know, most of his
former former colleagues.

1082
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,117
Um you know, there's great examples
that you know, then you get The New York

1083
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:24,637
Times has adapted to that in an

1084
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:26,117
interesting way.

1085
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:30,237
Um you know, the the Hasan um um a

1086
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:33,637
a newspaper um has fully
committed itself to um

1087
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:38,517
to the future, let's say. Um so, you know,
they're they're doing their thing.

1088
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:41,597
Um yeah, you know,
most of legacy properties

1089
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:44,077
won't adapt. They, you know, they never
do. Um there's going to be lots and lots

1090
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:48,317
of new things um that emerge.
Um And maybe I I should say here again to

1091
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:53,077
not sound not sound cynical about
this, like it is really striking.

1092
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:56,477
I'll say the following. So, like what
are the two like mega mega mega trends

1093
00:57:56,560 --> 00:58:00,117
in video uh and and and and by the way,
also in politics over the course of last

1094
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:01,917
like 5 years. It's basically two things.

1095
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:05,837
It's it's short-form video in the form
of TikTok, Instagram, and and and and X,

1096
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:09,277
you know, short-form, you know, Reels
uh or short-form video. Uh and and there

1097
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,357
you get like the full battery
of accusations of like, you know,

1098
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:13,717
destroying attention span
and everything's trivial.

1099
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:17,397
Um but on the other side
is the rise of the 3-hour podcast.

1100
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:20,437
Um and so on the on the podcast side,
you have this incredible phenomenon with

1101
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:23,637
3 hours. And by the way, some of these,
you know, Joe and and Lex and others are

1102
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:26,637
now pushing this to the point where,
you know, Lex now has like in some cases

1103
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:30,837
7-hour podcasts, right? I think what
is it biology did like a 10-hour one on

1104
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:35,277
10-hour one on Lex. Yeah, yeah. So,
biology went for 10 hours on Lex. Um and

1105
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:38,237
so and it's actually interesting cuz if
you talk to those guys, they get data on

1106
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:41,437
completion rates. Um and and it's
actually a very large percentage of

1107
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:44,277
their of their listeners or viewers
who actually listen to the whole thing.

1108
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:47,317
Um so, like many many many Rogan
podcasts or Lex podcasts, people

1109
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:49,797
actually listen to the
full the full 3 hours.

1110
00:58:49,880 --> 00:58:53,437
Um and so so it's it's the thing I
really rejected this idea that like, you

1111
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:55,597
know, I don't want people to think
that I believe this is like this idea that

1112
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:58,557
everything is going to become just
like trivial short-form social media

1113
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:01,837
like that. No, not at all.
You have this correspond

1114
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:04,877
You do have a lot of that. But you have
this corresponding thing, which is you

1115
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:06,237
also it's like a it's like a barbell.

1116
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:09,997
You also have this You you have
this massive rise in substance.

1117
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,677
Um and on the substance side, I would
point to the long-form podcasts. I would

1118
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:16,077
point to Substack. Um by the way,
you know, there's a big push on X to have

1119
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:20,037
long-form essays. Um I would push uh you
know, online you know, online online you

1120
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:22,157
know, courses uh on every topic are

1121
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:27,397
available. Um and um uh you just yeah,
you have this ability. But I've even AI

1122
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:30,837
what my favorite feature of AI is what
they call deep research. Uh which is a

1123
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:34,677
feature on both I think it's
on particularly on ChatGPT and on Claude,

1124
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:38,317
but like you set it loose and it will
write you like literally 30 pages. Uh a

1125
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:41,717
30-page answer, you know, this is
basically like a textbook on any topic.

1126
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:45,157
Um and so so I I think there there
is this other side which is you you have

1127
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:49,037
this you also have this growth in you
have this growth in Oh, the other thing

1128
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:53,077
is just in we're an example of this,
the rise of the practitioner media.

1129
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:57,957
Uh practitioner-driven media. So,
people who are actually doing a thing

1130
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:00,077
showing up and talking about it.

1131
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:02,637
Um and of course, you know, that leads
to all sorts of outrage of that's not

1132
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:05,037
journalism if you don't have somebody
asking like whatever super you know,

1133
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,717
snippy critical questions about it or
whatever. But like the idea for somebody

1134
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:12,117
who is actually doing a thing, I mean,
you know, Andre Karpathy in AI, right?

1135
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:14,797
He just just like shows
up and like explains

1136
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:16,757
like here here is how this all works.

1137
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:21,117
Um is is is just like amazing.
And and you know, in in in old media like

1138
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:25,077
basically like when I when I
was younger like Charlie Rose did that.

1139
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:28,397
But so I grew up actually listening
to Charlie Rose watching Charlie Rose. But

1140
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:33,477
Charlie Rose literally was on at midnight.
Like he was on CBS at midnight

1141
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:35,517
and he would have these hour-long
conversations with these super

1142
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:37,557
interesting people doing super
interesting things, but he was on at

1143
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:40,557
midnight and you had to stay up
at midnight to watch Charlie Rose. Right?

1144
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:42,917
It was like it was one of the great
things about getting a DVR is you could

1145
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:46,197
record, you know, Charlie Rose and watch
it during during normal normal daylight

1146
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:50,237
hours. But you know, we lost that or we
didn't have that for a very long time

1147
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:53,197
and we have that now. And so so I do
think it's worth noting like there is

1148
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:56,797
this incredible in my view clearly
incredibly positive, informative,

1149
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,797
educational, super helpful, super
constructive thing on the other side

1150
01:00:59,880 --> 01:01:01,957
which is of course a lot
of what we try to do.

1151
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:05,717
And you know, if 2024
was the podcast election,

1152
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:10,197
it'll be interesting to see what 2028
people have been very concerned, you

1153
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:13,437
know, or or sort of predicting,
you know, deep fakes for a while and how

1154
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:16,637
that might influence things,
but we haven't really seen

1155
01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:20,517
anything there super material it it
seems, but it'll be interesting to see

1156
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:24,557
what what media formats or just how
the 2028 election is is different than the

1157
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:27,877
2024 one in this conversation.

1158
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:31,757
We've had deepfakes forever. >> [laughter]

1159
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:36,877
>> Like Like people have
believed all kinds of crazy

1160
01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:39,997
Um I mean, you know, there was there
was the Gulf of Tonkin incident and they

1161
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:42,357
kicked off the really kicked off
the Vietnam War. Like I think we now know

1162
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:46,517
that that was a fish. Like it's actually
quite well established. Um then some

1163
01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:51,557
people might say Russiagate.
Um it was it turned turns out it was quite

1164
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,357
an elaborate fake.
Um so I the the deepfake thing I find

1165
01:01:54,440 --> 01:01:56,557
very funny cuz it's like it's not like
we've been swimming in truth all this

1166
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:58,797
time and all of a sudden now that now
there's going to be deepfakes. But

1167
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:02,557
anyway, that maybe that's
a a separate conversation. The um

1168
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:07,277
I think the the the the the substantive
comment I would make is um

1169
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:10,317
So uh So I actually
think we have People talk

1170
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:14,317
about like famously talk about the 1960
election Kennedy versus Nixon where

1171
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:18,077
where famously where television took
over from radio. Uh where if if you they

1172
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:20,877
had their famous debate and if you
listened to the radio you thought Nixon

1173
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:24,317
won and if you watched it on TV you
thought that the the the Kennedy won. Uh

1174
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:29,197
so so so you know, the the the the you
know, audio versus audio plus video. Um

1175
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,197
and so people have been talking for a
while you know, that was considered like

1176
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,677
the first television election where
television was like the determining

1177
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,117
factor in who won or lost.
Um along with you know, maybe some

1178
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:43,077
shenanigans in Chicago. >> [laughter]
>> Anyway, um Speaking of deepfakes.

1179
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,997
Um so uh anyway, um people have been

1180
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:50,437
talking for a while about um when will
there be the first internet election? Um

1181
01:02:50,520 --> 01:02:53,997
and and you know, people like to point
to 2016 being you know, Trump using

1182
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:57,557
social media or maybe 2024 being
the podcast election. I actually think the

1183
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,357
first internet election
hasn't happened yet. I I I

1184
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:03,757
By the way, people even point to 2008
with which with Obama fundraising. So

1185
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:06,677
yeah, 2008 Obama fundraising online. Uh

1186
01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:09,557
2016 Trump using using social media as a

1187
01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:12,077
broadcast method and then 2024 podcast.

1188
01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:15,997
So we've had three examples of internet
mattering for elections for sure.

1189
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:19,837
Uh but I think we haven't had the true
internet election and and I and and and

1190
01:03:19,920 --> 01:03:22,717
as a consequence of that and and by the
way we therefore haven't really had the

1191
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:25,957
true internet candidate yet. And actually
it's interesting as people talk

1192
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:29,677
this is not a pro or negative pro or con
comment on on Trump himself for the

1193
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:32,277
purpose of this discussion, but people
talk about Trump as the internet

1194
01:03:32,360 --> 01:03:36,437
candidate, but he really he's really
a hybrid. Um, in that he cares he cares

1195
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:39,037
enormously about what's on TV. Um, and

1196
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:43,637
he's on and he's and he's on TV a lot um,
and he watches TV all the time

1197
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:48,317
famously in order to cuz TV is basically
how he gets a read on the pulse of of

1198
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,237
sort of what's happening and of what
people think about things and what

1199
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:54,957
people So like I think I think Trump's
kind of underlying theory is the things

1200
01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:57,357
that are on TV are the things that the
people running the TV network know that

1201
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:00,197
their viewers want to see. And so
therefore if you watch this on TV you

1202
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,677
can get a sense of what people actually
think and I you know and as TV has been

1203
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:06,277
the dominant medium for the last 60
or 70 years, you know, that I you know,

1204
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:08,597
it's a pretty good theory. Obviously
it's it's it's pretty well you know,

1205
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:12,197
quite well for him. Um,
and then he and then he he also like

1206
01:04:12,280 --> 01:04:14,717
cares a lot about like
affecting what's on TV.

1207
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:16,757
Um, and and there's this there's this
famous Trump story that lots of people

1208
01:04:16,840 --> 01:04:18,917
have told where he'll be in a meeting
and there'll be a TV on in the

1209
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:21,277
background he'll be watching it and he'll
he'll have it with the sound off,

1210
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:24,277
but he'll be watching the Chiron the you
know, the thing at the bottom of the

1211
01:04:24,360 --> 01:04:26,837
screen the text that shows what what
they're what they're saying and if he

1212
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:31,077
doesn't like what's on the Chiron he'll
tweet something to change the subject.

1213
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:34,157
Right. And so he'll tweet and then
he'll literally watch and the Chiron will

1214
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:37,517
change and he'll be like ah, you know,
so he right he's right he's able to

1215
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:41,117
cause right he's able to single-handedly
with his power of his Twitter to turn

1216
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:43,677
one current thing into another
current thing, right? Okay.

1217
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:47,997
So so my my point is like he's he's
a hybrid. He So he's he's very social

1218
01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:50,197
media fluent, but he's also very
television. And of course his entire

1219
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:53,437
career was made on television. So he's
he's very television fluent. He's one of

1220
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:56,037
the best you know, television
programmers in history. And he's and

1221
01:04:56,120 --> 01:05:00,517
he's and he's a social media native.
Um, there will be an internet candidate.

1222
01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:04,717
There will be an internet president who
gets elected and I I believe entirely

1223
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:08,877
based on the internet. Um,
where they don't pay any attention

1224
01:05:08,960 --> 01:05:12,397
at all to what's on TV. Um,
because it doesn't matter to them

1225
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:16,117
one bit. Um, and they're going to be
entirely online and they're not going to

1226
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:18,517
care what's in the on TV and they're
not going to care what's in the newspaper

1227
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:21,877
and they're going to be 100% a creature
of the internet. Um, and and I think we

1228
01:05:21,960 --> 01:05:24,477
haven't I I believe we haven't seen
that yet. I don't know when we're going to

1229
01:05:24,560 --> 01:05:29,237
see it. I'm pretty sure possible
it's 20 Um, probably my guess

1230
01:05:29,320 --> 01:05:34,477
is 32. Um, yeah.
And so I I think we all have Yes.

1231
01:05:34,560 --> 01:05:37,717
For better or for worse, we all have we
all have that to look forward to. Yeah.

1232
01:05:37,800 --> 01:05:39,557
The uh well, I think that's a great note

1233
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:44,757
to to wrap on. This has been a great
discussion all things media. Uh Mark,

1234
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,077
thank you for coming on the first
day of Monitoring the Situation.

1235
01:05:48,160 --> 01:05:50,197
I am proud to be part of the monitoring.

1236
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:52,600
Excellent.