WEBVTT 00:00:02.160 --> 00:00:04.077 I honestly believe that the AI 00:00:04.160 --> 00:00:09.437 revolution is underhyped. Now, why is this all important? [music] 00:00:09.520 --> 00:00:12.637 >> Eric Schmidt is here. He's the former Google executive chairman and CEO. 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.637 >> These agents are going to be really powerful, and they'll start to work 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:19.037 [music] together. We're soon going to be able to have computers running on their 00:00:19.120 --> 00:00:22.877 own, deciding what they want to [music] do. Now we have the arrival of a new 00:00:22.960 --> 00:00:29.037 nonhuman intelligence which is likely to have better reasoning skills than humans 00:00:29.120 --> 00:00:31.117 can have. >> So if [music] you were emperor of the 00:00:31.200 --> 00:00:35.117 world for 1 hour, the most important thing I do is make [music] sure that the 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:36.877 west wins. 00:00:36.960 --> 00:00:40.637 >> Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome 00:00:40.720 --> 00:00:44.200 Eric Schmidt. 00:00:44.960 --> 00:00:47.220 >> Hi. [music] 00:00:47.840 --> 00:00:51.007 Hi. Looking good. Good. Thank you. 00:00:51.090 --> 00:00:52.477 [applause] >> Good to see you. 00:00:52.560 --> 00:00:57.277 >> Good to see you. >> You're looking, Eric. You're looking very nice. 00:00:57.360 --> 00:01:00.557 >> Oh my god. David, good to see you. It's like >> David Sax is here as well. 00:01:00.640 --> 00:01:04.877 >> It's like a It's like a reunion of all of our former companies. David, why did 00:01:04.960 --> 00:01:07.757 you quit after all? >> My old [clears throat] 00:01:07.840 --> 00:01:12.237 >> my old boss. [laughter] It was >> What was it like working with Young 00:01:12.320 --> 00:01:16.397 Freedberg? Take us back. >> Can I Can I tell a story? We have to 00:01:16.480 --> 00:01:19.277 come down to Orange County and they're like, "Hey, we're going to take the 00:01:19.360 --> 00:01:23.037 plane and it was Eric's plane." We get on the plane and then he goes up and 00:01:23.120 --> 00:01:24.957 flies the plane. I'm in the back of the plane by myself. 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:25.917 >> Was it King Air? What is it? 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:28.717 >> I'm like, "The CEO of Google's flying me down to Orange County." It was 00:01:28.800 --> 00:01:31.837 incredible. That was my first time actually hanging out with Eric. 00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:34.077 >> It was It was my Gulfream. >> That's right. 00:01:34.160 --> 00:01:37.837 >> Um, he was way too smart. >> Way too smart. 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:41.357 >> Way too smart. >> Was he focused? Did he contribute? Did he move the needle? 00:01:41.440 --> 00:01:46.477 >> But he was very smart. [laughter] Okay, that's kind of our consensus off the pod 00:01:46.560 --> 00:01:49.117 as well. >> Look, you guys know this guy well. He's 00:01:49.200 --> 00:01:51.917 really that smart. So, he taught me more 00:01:52.000 --> 00:01:56.157 stuff than most of any of the employees at Google. And then you left. 00:01:56.240 --> 00:01:57.677 >> Well, tell us what you've been doing. 00:01:57.760 --> 00:02:00.397 So, um >> No, no, before that, I got to ask you 00:02:00.480 --> 00:02:04.157 this question. There was a recently deleted video from Stanford. 00:02:04.240 --> 00:02:07.277 >> Oh, no. >> You had a moment of clarity where you 00:02:07.360 --> 00:02:11.277 said, "Hey, you know, like at Google, people are like too much work life 00:02:11.360 --> 00:02:15.357 balance. They need to commit. They need to work harder. We had Sergey at the 00:02:15.440 --> 00:02:21.720 last event. He's going back to work. So Sergey got the message. 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:25.987 Predicting Sergey's behavior is something I can fail at. I tried for 00:02:26.070 --> 00:02:28.877 [laughter] 20 years. Um I am not in 00:02:28.960 --> 00:02:33.117 favor of um essentially working at home. 00:02:33.200 --> 00:02:35.757 I And the reason I mean many of you guys 00:02:35.840 --> 00:02:37.837 all work at home to some degree, but 00:02:37.920 --> 00:02:40.157 your careers are already established. 00:02:40.240 --> 00:02:44.717 But think about a 20-some who has to learn how the world works and you know 00:02:44.800 --> 00:02:47.517 they they come out of Berkeley or Dartmouth and they're very well 00:02:47.600 --> 00:02:50.157 educated. When I think about how much I 00:02:50.240 --> 00:02:54.557 learned when I was at Sun just listening to these elder people who were 5 or 10 00:02:54.640 --> 00:02:57.037 years older than I was argue with each 00:02:57.120 --> 00:03:00.317 other in person. I don't how do you 00:03:00.400 --> 00:03:04.957 recreate that in this new thing? And and I'm in favor of work life balance and 00:03:05.040 --> 00:03:06.317 that's why people work for the 00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:11.117 government. Um sorry. Um, strays. 00:03:11.200 --> 00:03:14.157 >> Sorry, sorry, sorry. Um, if you're going 00:03:14.240 --> 00:03:17.677 to be in tech and you're going to win, you're going to have to make some 00:03:17.760 --> 00:03:19.917 trade-offs. And you're remember, we're 00:03:20.000 --> 00:03:23.197 up against the Chinese. The Chinese work 00:03:23.280 --> 00:03:25.677 life balance consists of 996, which is 00:03:25.760 --> 00:03:28.717 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. 6 days a week. By 00:03:28.800 --> 00:03:33.117 the way, the Chinese have clarified that this is illegal. However, they all do 00:03:33.200 --> 00:03:35.757 it. >> That's who you're competing against. 00:03:35.840 --> 00:03:39.277 >> I brought I brought everybody back to office. It's so much better. So, it 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:42.637 let's just pick up on that theme. So, >> you don't need to defend the government. 00:03:42.720 --> 00:03:45.997 >> No, no. Believe me, I don't I don't see the need to. I'm an unpaid part-time 00:03:46.080 --> 00:03:48.877 adviser to the government. So, uh but uh 00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:51.437 but we are in this high-tech competition 00:03:51.520 --> 00:03:53.597 with China. They obviously care about 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:56.157 AI, too. They're trying to race ahead. 00:03:56.240 --> 00:04:00.637 How do you uh I I understand that you recently ma made a trip there. How do 00:04:00.720 --> 00:04:04.077 you um handicap this this this competition? Well, you and I just talked 00:04:04.160 --> 00:04:07.677 about this as part of your as your incredibly important 00:04:07.760 --> 00:04:10.397 >> work in the White House. Um, I had 00:04:10.480 --> 00:04:12.237 thought that China and the United States 00:04:12.320 --> 00:04:15.837 were competing at the peer level in AI 00:04:15.920 --> 00:04:19.437 and that the good work that you have done and your predecessors did to 00:04:19.520 --> 00:04:21.677 restrict chips were slowing them down. 00:04:21.760 --> 00:04:23.437 They're really doing something more 00:04:23.520 --> 00:04:25.437 different than I thought. They're not 00:04:25.520 --> 00:04:29.517 pursuing crazy AGI strategies partly 00:04:29.600 --> 00:04:33.037 because the hardware limitations that you've put in place, but partly because 00:04:33.120 --> 00:04:35.357 the depth of their capital markets don't 00:04:35.440 --> 00:04:38.157 exist. They can't raise based on a wing 00:04:38.240 --> 00:04:40.957 and a prayer $100 million or maybe an 00:04:41.040 --> 00:04:42.877 equivalent to to build the data centers. 00:04:42.960 --> 00:04:45.837 They just can't do it. And so the result 00:04:45.920 --> 00:04:48.317 is they're very focused on taking AI and 00:04:48.400 --> 00:04:53.037 applying it to everything. And so the concern I have is that while we're 00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:56.317 pursuing AGI, which is incredibly interesting and we should talk about and 00:04:56.400 --> 00:05:00.237 all of us will be affected by this, we better also be competing with the 00:05:00.320 --> 00:05:04.397 Chinese in day-to-day stuff. Consumer apps, this is something you understand 00:05:04.480 --> 00:05:08.557 very well, Chimoth, uh, consumer apps, uh, robots and so forth and so on. I saw 00:05:08.640 --> 00:05:11.037 all the the Shanghai robotics companies 00:05:11.120 --> 00:05:13.837 and these guys are attempting to do in 00:05:13.920 --> 00:05:18.397 robots what they've successfully done with electric vehicles, right? and 00:05:18.480 --> 00:05:22.237 they're re they their work ethic is incredible. They're well funded. It's 00:05:22.320 --> 00:05:24.957 not the crazy valuations that we have in 00:05:25.040 --> 00:05:29.437 America. They can't raise the capital, but they can win across that. The other 00:05:29.520 --> 00:05:32.477 thing the Chinese are doing, and I want to emphasize this is a major 00:05:32.560 --> 00:05:36.797 geopolitical issue, is that my own background is open source. In the 00:05:36.880 --> 00:05:38.477 audience, you all know open source means 00:05:38.560 --> 00:05:41.037 open code. Open weight open weights 00:05:41.120 --> 00:05:45.677 means open training data. China is competing with open weights and 00:05:45.760 --> 00:05:49.757 open training data. And the US is largely and majority focused on closed 00:05:49.840 --> 00:05:54.077 weights, closed data. That means that the majority of the world, think of it 00:05:54.160 --> 00:05:57.837 as the belt and road initiative, are going to use Chinese models and not 00:05:57.920 --> 00:06:02.717 American models. Now, I happen to think the West and democracies are correct. 00:06:02.800 --> 00:06:05.997 And I'd much rather have the proliferation of large language models 00:06:06.080 --> 00:06:07.357 and that learning be done based on 00:06:07.440 --> 00:06:09.837 Western values. Eric, we had a a major 00:06:09.920 --> 00:06:13.357 open- source initiative um with Meta, 00:06:13.440 --> 00:06:17.917 you know, incredible balance sheet, tremendous technical firepower, but they 00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:21.757 seem to have misexecuted and now are taking a step back and reformulating 00:06:21.840 --> 00:06:24.797 something to your point that looks a little bit more closed source. 00:06:24.880 --> 00:06:28.957 >> It's not clear. You know, Alex Wang's a good friend. Uh he's come in, he's taken 00:06:29.040 --> 00:06:33.037 over. He's obviously incredibly uh incredibly capable. I would not hold 00:06:33.120 --> 00:06:35.357 keep um I I would not say that they're 00:06:35.440 --> 00:06:37.517 going fully closed. And I think also 00:06:37.600 --> 00:06:40.237 they got screwed up because the deepseek 00:06:40.320 --> 00:06:44.397 people uh R1 did such a good job, right? 00:06:44.480 --> 00:06:48.717 If you look at the reasoning model in deepseek and in particular their ability 00:06:48.800 --> 00:06:51.757 to do reinforcement learning forward and back, forward and back and forward and 00:06:51.840 --> 00:06:54.477 back, this is a major achievement and it 00:06:54.560 --> 00:06:59.277 appears that they're doing it with less precision than numeric precision than 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:01.357 the American models. As a bit of 00:07:01.440 --> 00:07:03.517 technical things, uh there's something 00:07:03.600 --> 00:07:07.677 called FP64, FP32, FP16. The American 00:07:07.760 --> 00:07:11.037 models are typically using 16 bit precision for their training. The 00:07:11.120 --> 00:07:14.077 Chinese are pushing eight and now even four. 00:07:14.160 --> 00:07:19.517 >> Is there is there something that um the American you know bigger companies need 00:07:19.600 --> 00:07:22.317 to be doing in open source so that we can actually combat this? 00:07:22.400 --> 00:07:25.197 >> Well, a number of the large companies have said that they want to be leaders 00:07:25.280 --> 00:07:27.597 in open source as well. Um Sam Alman 00:07:27.680 --> 00:07:29.837 indicated that the smallest version of 00:07:29.920 --> 00:07:32.717 the 03 model would be released I believe 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:35.597 open weights and they have done so and 00:07:35.680 --> 00:07:38.877 he told me anyway that this model is 00:07:38.960 --> 00:07:41.677 much smaller than 10 the 26. It's much 00:07:41.760 --> 00:07:43.837 easier to train and it will fit or or 00:07:43.920 --> 00:07:47.597 can fit on your phone. So one path is to 00:07:47.680 --> 00:07:51.917 say that we'll have these supercomputers doing AGI which will always be 00:07:52.000 --> 00:07:55.677 incredibly expensive and so forth. But we also have to watch to make sure that 00:07:55.760 --> 00:07:57.837 the proliferation of these models for 00:07:57.920 --> 00:08:00.317 handheld devices is under American 00:08:00.400 --> 00:08:03.437 control whether it's open AAI or Meta or 00:08:03.520 --> 00:08:06.477 Gemini or what have you. recently you uh 00:08:06.560 --> 00:08:10.877 took over uh Relativity Space and I think for for the people that don't know 00:08:10.960 --> 00:08:15.757 this is a business that effectively whose ambition is to compete with SpaceX. 00:08:15.840 --> 00:08:18.957 >> I think you were the first investor or the earliest investor in it. 00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:21.437 >> I was >> I'm sorry. >> It's okay. [laughter] 00:08:21.520 --> 00:08:24.397 >> Lost some money in the first round. What happened? Did you get crammed down? 00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:26.157 >> No, no, no. I mean, >> all of us did. 00:08:26.240 --> 00:08:30.477 >> All of us. I mean, look, >> I mean, I've been very happily uh you 00:08:30.560 --> 00:08:34.477 know, an investor in SpaceX and Swarm and Starlink. relativity was 00:08:34.560 --> 00:08:37.597 >> and by the way swarm is a big deal created swarm was a >> so thank you 00:08:37.680 --> 00:08:41.197 >> yeah swarm has been a really great success for for them and I think for the 00:08:41.280 --> 00:08:43.517 world um but what I was going to ask you 00:08:43.600 --> 00:08:48.557 is walk us through the evolution of the space market why you decided of all the 00:08:48.640 --> 00:08:53.037 companies you have the capital base to kind of put your money anywhere why did 00:08:53.120 --> 00:08:56.157 you pick that why did you pick that business why now 00:08:56.240 --> 00:08:58.157 >> rockets are really cool and they're 00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:01.117 really hard I had I'm as you know I'm a 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:03.437 pilot and I know lots about jets And I 00:09:03.520 --> 00:09:05.357 had assumed that rockets were as mature 00:09:05.440 --> 00:09:08.397 as jet engines. They're not. It is an 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:13.437 art and a science. These things are very hard to do. The amounts of power, I 00:09:13.520 --> 00:09:18.157 mean, in our case, the rocket is 4 million pounds of thrust. Um, you have 00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:21.917 to hold the thing down to test it and you can't even hold it with metal 00:09:22.000 --> 00:09:24.397 things. You have to have other things to hold it down as well. There's so much 00:09:24.480 --> 00:09:28.237 force otherwise it will take off. Um, another interesting thing about rockets 00:09:28.320 --> 00:09:30.717 is that a rough number is that 2% of the 00:09:30.800 --> 00:09:33.437 weight of the rocket is the payload, 18% 00:09:33.520 --> 00:09:38.397 is roughly the rocket, and 80% is the propellant. And my reaction as a new 00:09:38.480 --> 00:09:42.397 person is, you're telling me you can't do any better. And the physicists say 00:09:42.480 --> 00:09:46.317 after 60 years of physics, that's the best we can do to get out of the 00:09:46.400 --> 00:09:50.477 gravitation of of the Earth. And so, I think rockets are interesting and 00:09:50.560 --> 00:09:54.157 they're challenging. There's always an opportunity for competition. um in 00:09:54.240 --> 00:09:56.157 relativity space's area, it's 00:09:56.240 --> 00:09:59.277 essentially a LEO com a LEO competitor. 00:09:59.360 --> 00:10:03.197 So low Earth orbit satellites, that sort of thing. The order book is full. We 00:10:03.280 --> 00:10:08.237 just have to launch the rocket and and this entry into space happened and I'm 00:10:08.320 --> 00:10:11.597 not sure how well known this is. So you can go as far as you want to go into 00:10:11.680 --> 00:10:15.837 this, but you've done a lot as well in next generation warfare as well. Do you 00:10:15.920 --> 00:10:20.477 want us just to talk about that and how you ended up there and what role that 00:10:20.560 --> 00:10:21.917 plays and just give us a landscape? 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:24.797 Maybe David asked about the China question, but it's they're all kind of 00:10:24.880 --> 00:10:27.117 almost interrelated. >> Well, first place, I'm a software 00:10:27.200 --> 00:10:30.397 person, not a hardware person. I I explain to people that hardware people 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:33.917 go to different schools than software people. Um, and they think slightly 00:10:34.000 --> 00:10:37.757 differently. So, I'm always at a limitation in these new industries. Um, 00:10:37.840 --> 00:10:41.037 I had worked for the Secretary of Defense and have a top secret clearance 00:10:41.120 --> 00:10:43.517 and all that. I was given a medal, etc., 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:48.397 uh, for trying to help the Pentagon reorganize itself. And when the Ukraine 00:10:48.480 --> 00:10:50.477 war started, I was watching and I 00:10:50.560 --> 00:10:52.157 thought, well, here's an opportunity to 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:55.917 see a country that has no navy u and no 00:10:56.000 --> 00:10:58.157 uh and no air force, how they do this 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:00.957 with automation. And indeed, it has been 00:11:01.040 --> 00:11:03.277 a spectacular success as a matter of 00:11:03.360 --> 00:11:06.797 innovation. Um and outnumbered 3 to one 00:11:06.880 --> 00:11:10.397 with huge differences in um kinetic 00:11:10.480 --> 00:11:13.037 strength, weapons, mobilization, and so 00:11:13.120 --> 00:11:17.437 forth and so on. Ukraine has held on really quite well. Um and what's 00:11:17.520 --> 00:11:20.877 happening now is you're seeing essentially the birth of a completely 00:11:20.960 --> 00:11:22.877 new military national security 00:11:22.960 --> 00:11:28.077 structure. Um one way to think about it is that we all u so first place and I've 00:11:28.160 --> 00:11:32.397 I've seen it live and I will tell you that real war is much worse than the 00:11:32.480 --> 00:11:36.237 worst movies you have ever seen about war. And that's all I'll say. It's 00:11:36.320 --> 00:11:37.837 really horrific and it's to be avoided 00:11:37.920 --> 00:11:41.197 at all cost. Um and then right for 00:11:41.280 --> 00:11:45.437 obvious reasons and the the 00:11:45.520 --> 00:11:49.837 and I love all these people say well you know the wararm mongering talk be 00:11:49.920 --> 00:11:54.157 careful what you wish for because the other side gets a vote. When I started 00:11:54.240 --> 00:11:55.997 working and and trying to understand 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:58.797 what Ukraine was doing uh Russia was 00:11:58.880 --> 00:12:03.917 pushed back and they've come back with a very very strong second and third round. 00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:05.677 So the enemy gets a vote in this 00:12:05.760 --> 00:12:09.117 situation. uh but to but to go on u the 00:12:09.200 --> 00:12:12.237 rough way in which war will evolve is 00:12:12.320 --> 00:12:14.957 first things will have to be very very 00:12:15.040 --> 00:12:19.917 mobile and very much not in fixed places. This takes out most of the 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:21.917 military infrastructure that exists in 00:12:22.000 --> 00:12:25.517 the world. Um, things like tanks, um, of 00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:28.957 which we're now building a whole bunch more, even stronger tanks here in 00:12:29.040 --> 00:12:31.117 America, don't make any sense in a world 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:34.157 where a 2 kilogram payload from a a 00:12:34.240 --> 00:12:36.717 well-armed drone can destroy the tank. 00:12:36.800 --> 00:12:38.397 It's called the kill ratio. And that 00:12:38.480 --> 00:12:42.157 drone costs retail $5,000, $4,000. The 00:12:42.240 --> 00:12:46.637 tank, the American tank costs $30 million. You can see the you can send an 00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:48.237 awful lot of those drones to destroy 00:12:48.320 --> 00:12:51.437 those tanks. Um the likely evolution 00:12:51.520 --> 00:12:55.997 goes something like this. So first people learn that drones are like rifles 00:12:56.080 --> 00:12:58.157 and like artillery. [snorts] So it's 00:12:58.240 --> 00:13:03.757 more efficient to use drones now than to use mortars, grenades, artillery. That's 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:07.677 clear. If you just look at the economics, economics in terms of cost or 00:13:07.760 --> 00:13:10.557 effectiveness as it's called. Um the 00:13:10.640 --> 00:13:15.197 next thing that happens is that both sides develop drone capabilities which 00:13:15.280 --> 00:13:17.277 is what you're seeing now and each then 00:13:17.360 --> 00:13:19.917 becomes a war of drone against drone. So 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:24.477 you have drone against anti- drone. And so then the shift moves to how do you 00:13:24.560 --> 00:13:28.637 detect the enemy drone and how do you destroy it before it destroys you. So 00:13:28.720 --> 00:13:30.797 the doctrine ultimately is the drones 00:13:30.880 --> 00:13:34.157 are forward and the people are behind. 00:13:34.240 --> 00:13:38.477 And I've seen operations in for example sitting in Kev where the Ukrainians are 00:13:38.560 --> 00:13:40.477 commanding things over Starlink I might 00:13:40.560 --> 00:13:43.437 add um in the distance in the distant 00:13:43.520 --> 00:13:47.677 war and they're very very effective. So we've solved the latency problems, we've 00:13:47.760 --> 00:13:49.197 solved the timing problems and so forth 00:13:49.280 --> 00:13:52.637 in that area. The ultimate state is very 00:13:52.720 --> 00:13:56.797 interesting and I don't think anyone has foreseen this. If you go back to our 00:13:56.880 --> 00:14:01.277 conversation about RL and planning, which is what you're seeing with AI, 00:14:01.360 --> 00:14:05.117 let's say that that we're on one side and we have a million drones and there's 00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:09.437 another side over here that has another million drones. Each side will use 00:14:09.520 --> 00:14:11.357 reinforcement learning AI strategies to 00:14:11.440 --> 00:14:14.637 do battle plans, but neither side can 00:14:14.720 --> 00:14:19.197 figure out what the other side's battle plan is. And therefore, the deterrence 00:14:19.280 --> 00:14:23.197 against attacking each other will be very high. Today, the way military 00:14:23.280 --> 00:14:26.237 planners operate is that they count weapons. They say, "Well, you have this 00:14:26.320 --> 00:14:30.077 many and I have this many and you can do this kind of a maneuver and so forth." 00:14:30.160 --> 00:14:33.917 But in an AI world where you're doing reinforcement learning, you can't count 00:14:34.000 --> 00:14:37.757 what the other side is planning. You can't see it. You don't know it. And I 00:14:37.840 --> 00:14:41.517 believe that that will deter what I view as one of the most horrendous things 00:14:41.600 --> 00:14:43.357 ever done by humans, which is war. 00:14:43.440 --> 00:14:47.197 Because unless there's a perfect balance between either side, there will be some 00:14:47.280 --> 00:14:50.797 mutual destruction of the drone supply like there would be with any artillery 00:14:50.880 --> 00:14:55.117 stock in traditional warfare. And whoever's left ends up winning like 00:14:55.200 --> 00:14:57.677 they're just >> Well, it's very important to understand 00:14:57.760 --> 00:15:00.797 that there's no winners in war. Um, by 00:15:00.880 --> 00:15:04.717 the time you had a drone battle of the scale I'm describing, the entire 00:15:04.800 --> 00:15:07.677 infrastructure of your side will be destroyed. The entire infrastructure of 00:15:07.760 --> 00:15:11.837 the other side will be destroyed. These are lose-lose scenarios. Isn't there 00:15:11.920 --> 00:15:16.317 like an an equilibrium though that that can also create where there because of 00:15:16.400 --> 00:15:19.757 that mutually assured destruction it there's a det or is that 00:15:19.840 --> 00:15:23.277 >> well I'm arguing that it's it's not a deterrence >> right 00:15:23.360 --> 00:15:25.677 >> that as deterrence can be understood as 00:15:25.760 --> 00:15:28.157 I want to hit you which I don't but I 00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:32.797 want to hit you so much but that if I do that the penalty is the penalty is 00:15:32.880 --> 00:15:34.957 greater than the value of me hitting you >> right 00:15:35.040 --> 00:15:37.997 >> and that's how deter that's how deter >> but that seems like an ad that that 00:15:38.080 --> 00:15:41.037 seems like a great um advantage antage 00:15:41.120 --> 00:15:46.237 and upside of this move to sort of drones and automation that we don't have today. 00:15:46.320 --> 00:15:49.757 >> Well, I there are many advantages to moving to drones and automation. One, 00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:51.917 they're much much cheaper, right? 00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:53.597 They're much much cheaper. Yeah. 00:15:53.680 --> 00:15:57.997 >> And two, and two, you can stockpile algorithms. You can essentially learn 00:15:58.080 --> 00:16:02.237 and learn and learn. And remember, you can also build training data, right, 00:16:02.320 --> 00:16:05.597 that's synthetic, so you can be even better than the others. The final 00:16:05.680 --> 00:16:08.397 question I've been asked by our military 00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:11.117 is what's the role of the of a 00:16:11.200 --> 00:16:14.797 traditional land army. And I wish I 00:16:14.880 --> 00:16:17.437 could say that all of these human 00:16:17.520 --> 00:16:19.597 behaviors can occur without humans being 00:16:19.680 --> 00:16:22.797 at at risk. I don't think so. I think 00:16:22.880 --> 00:16:26.237 that the way um robot war essentially 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:30.717 drone war will occur is there will be these destructive waves, but eventually 00:16:30.800 --> 00:16:33.757 humans are going to have to cross a line. they're going to have to 00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:37.277 >> after we've depleted them. So, you're investing in this drone technology and 00:16:37.360 --> 00:16:39.037 then do you think 00:16:39.120 --> 00:16:41.437 >> Optimus and humanoid robots are the 00:16:41.520 --> 00:16:45.517 next, you know, volley in this um new 00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:48.077 warfare. It's going to be a long time 00:16:48.160 --> 00:16:50.717 before humanoid robots we which we see 00:16:50.800 --> 00:16:53.277 in the movies all day, right? Be a very 00:16:53.360 --> 00:16:55.837 long time before we see that. Uh what 00:16:55.920 --> 00:17:00.637 you're going to see is very very fast mobility solutions, right? airly 00:17:00.720 --> 00:17:05.037 airbased solutions and also >> hypersonics >> hypersonics also things underwater 00:17:05.120 --> 00:17:06.797 there's a lot of that going on it's a 00:17:06.880 --> 00:17:09.837 different domain um if you look at the 00:17:09.920 --> 00:17:12.237 um the Muro and some other boats that 00:17:12.320 --> 00:17:14.077 the Ukrainians used they have 00:17:14.160 --> 00:17:17.837 essentially used USVs to destroy the uh 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:20.637 Russian fleet in the Black Sea this was 00:17:20.720 --> 00:17:22.797 crucial for them because they needed to 00:17:22.880 --> 00:17:25.597 be able to export the grain from Odessa 00:17:25.680 --> 00:17:30.877 around and it's like 6% or 10% of their economy It's a very big deal and they 00:17:30.960 --> 00:17:33.517 did that with drones. >> Eric, it seems like there's this 00:17:33.600 --> 00:17:36.397 overarching worldview that you have, 00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:40.077 meaning you have this view on AI. 00:17:40.160 --> 00:17:44.637 There's all the stuff you're doing now in drones, in warfare, in rocketry. It 00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:48.157 all converges quite honestly because in the in the next 5 or 10 years, these 00:17:48.240 --> 00:17:53.517 things will all come to pass. What is the like how do you view the world? Like 00:17:53.600 --> 00:17:55.117 what is the role of America? What is 00:17:55.200 --> 00:17:57.517 your role as a as a capitalist, as a 00:17:57.600 --> 00:18:00.957 technologist, as like a statesman? 00:18:01.040 --> 00:18:06.577 >> I want America to win, right? 00:18:06.660 --> 00:18:07.357 [applause] 00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:11.597 Uh I am here because the American dream, 00:18:11.680 --> 00:18:15.837 the people who invested in me, in my case, Berkeley and so forth, people took 00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:17.837 a chance on me. I want the next 00:18:17.920 --> 00:18:20.397 generation to have that. I also want you 00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:23.117 all to remember I was just in in uh as 00:18:23.200 --> 00:18:27.677 part of the World War II surrender ceremony in in Honolulu and they talked 00:18:27.760 --> 00:18:29.997 about fighting tyranny, right? We forget 00:18:30.080 --> 00:18:32.477 that our ancestors or great-grandparents 00:18:32.560 --> 00:18:35.277 or whatever fought the Great War to keep 00:18:35.360 --> 00:18:37.997 liberalism and democracy alive. I want 00:18:38.080 --> 00:18:40.557 us to do that. How do we do that as 00:18:40.640 --> 00:18:43.277 Americans? We use our strengths. What 00:18:43.360 --> 00:18:46.237 are our strengths? We're chaotic, 00:18:46.320 --> 00:18:48.877 confusing, loud, you know, but we're 00:18:48.960 --> 00:18:51.837 clever. Uh we allocate capital smartly. 00:18:51.920 --> 00:18:56.157 We have very deep financial markets. We have this enormous industrial base of 00:18:56.240 --> 00:19:00.077 universities and entrepreneurs which are represented here. We should celebrate 00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:04.637 this. We should stoke it. We should make it go faster and faster. I spent lots of 00:19:04.720 --> 00:19:08.797 time in Europe because of the Ukraine stuff. They are so envious of us. When 00:19:08.880 --> 00:19:11.517 you're in Asia, they are envious of us. 00:19:11.600 --> 00:19:13.837 Don't screw it up, guys. That's what I 00:19:13.920 --> 00:19:14.717 want to work on. 00:19:14.800 --> 00:19:19.037 >> Can can I can I just ask you outside of 00:19:19.120 --> 00:19:22.797 this external conflict? We had um a 00:19:22.880 --> 00:19:26.637 conversation with Alex Karp today and we actually had Tucker Carlson here 00:19:26.720 --> 00:19:31.277 yesterday and some of the dialogue was around the I I don't know if the right 00:19:31.360 --> 00:19:34.957 term is the erosion of the west that there may be social issues that are 00:19:35.040 --> 00:19:38.557 brewing in the west that may be hurting us from the inside. How much do you 00:19:38.640 --> 00:19:41.117 observe or spend time on these issues? 00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:45.597 And the metric that often is cited now is declining birth rates in the west. 00:19:45.680 --> 00:19:48.717 And that our population, and we're going to talk with Elon in a few minutes about 00:19:48.800 --> 00:19:53.517 this. Um, oh, sorry. >> Oh, we just ran. My >> bad. My surprise. Oops. 00:19:53.600 --> 00:19:55.837 >> Sorry. Sorry. >> There's your surprise guest. 00:19:55.920 --> 00:19:57.917 >> Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. 00:19:58.000 --> 00:20:02.637 >> Um, slip. Uh, but um 00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:04.237 >> Elon is a good friend and he's 00:20:04.320 --> 00:20:09.850 addressing this issue of population directly himself. [laughter] 00:20:11.680 --> 00:20:13.277 problem solve for it. Good for you. 00:20:13.360 --> 00:20:16.637 >> Is it is it is it a reflection of something going on? There's a rise of 00:20:16.720 --> 00:20:18.797 Mani getting elected in New York. Uh 00:20:18.880 --> 00:20:22.237 some of the historic values of the West 00:20:22.320 --> 00:20:25.357 seem to be un you know kind of under a a 00:20:25.440 --> 00:20:27.117 state of transformation right now. 00:20:27.200 --> 00:20:32.317 >> One metric of the success of a society is its ability to reproduce. And so I 00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:36.717 think this is a legitimate concern of the west. It's much worse in Asia. The 00:20:36.800 --> 00:20:39.117 um the Chinese number is about 1.0 0 for 00:20:39.200 --> 00:20:42.317 two parents. In Korea, it's now down to 00:20:42.400 --> 00:20:46.397 78 for two. So, it's really important to 00:20:46.480 --> 00:20:48.477 recognize that we as humans are 00:20:48.560 --> 00:20:51.197 collectively choosing to depopulate. And 00:20:51.280 --> 00:20:53.917 the numbers are staggering, right? And 00:20:54.000 --> 00:20:58.957 imagine a situation where instead of having growth, you have shrinkage. And 00:20:59.040 --> 00:21:03.357 furthermore, they're getting older. And so, as a business, all of a sudden, your 00:21:03.440 --> 00:21:06.477 revenue is declining. And there's nothing you can do because you can't 00:21:06.560 --> 00:21:08.877 innovate with fewer and fewer customers. 00:21:08.960 --> 00:21:11.997 So if you just put it in a business context, ignoring the moral issues which 00:21:12.080 --> 00:21:14.477 are all very real, it's just bad, right? 00:21:14.560 --> 00:21:17.677 So we have to solve that problem. I happen to be in favor broadly of 00:21:17.760 --> 00:21:21.277 immigration because I think immigration helps us solve that problem. But as a 00:21:21.360 --> 00:21:23.277 global mechanism, we have to address 00:21:23.360 --> 00:21:26.397 that. Um, in any case, from my 00:21:26.480 --> 00:21:28.717 perspective, you're going to have these 00:21:28.800 --> 00:21:32.077 issues, but America is organized around 00:21:32.160 --> 00:21:34.957 the concept of American exceptionalism. 00:21:35.040 --> 00:21:37.437 And as long as we understand that the 00:21:37.520 --> 00:21:40.477 way we make progress is we invest in the 00:21:40.560 --> 00:21:45.117 right people, in the right businesses, we have a a strong capital market, we 00:21:45.200 --> 00:21:46.797 invest in the infrastructure that they 00:21:46.880 --> 00:21:49.677 need, um, we'll be fine. That is my 00:21:49.760 --> 00:21:54.157 actual opinion. Can can we go back to um AI for a second? 00:21:54.240 --> 00:21:59.357 >> So um Eric, I think you can help us get to a let's call it a a bipartisan 00:21:59.440 --> 00:22:02.557 understanding of these issues because I think you you you think really clearly 00:22:02.640 --> 00:22:06.317 about this. um you know in in the wake 00:22:06.400 --> 00:22:09.917 of chat GBT launching at the end of 2022 00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:11.917 I think the discourse was really 00:22:12.000 --> 00:22:15.037 dominated in 2023 and 24 by this idea of 00:22:15.120 --> 00:22:17.997 AGI and that AGI was imminent and I 00:22:18.080 --> 00:22:22.077 think it created almost like a panicky atmosphere in Washington among policy 00:22:22.160 --> 00:22:24.637 makers and you saw things like we got to 00:22:24.720 --> 00:22:29.357 restrict open source because you know then China will get it and um and this 00:22:29.440 --> 00:22:32.157 is before DeepS launched and then we saw that actually they're ahead of us in 00:22:32.240 --> 00:22:34.797 open source But it feels like there's 00:22:34.880 --> 00:22:39.437 been um a pullback a little bit from the AGI narrative which I think I think is 00:22:39.520 --> 00:22:43.837 actually a good thing. I think it's more conducive to calm rational policym. 00:22:43.920 --> 00:22:45.677 What's your perception of AGI right now? 00:22:45.760 --> 00:22:47.917 Where where are we on that whole train? 00:22:48.000 --> 00:22:51.197 >> So so um so first place the speech that 00:22:51.280 --> 00:22:56.637 the president delivered about a month ago about AI strategy which I think you 00:22:56.720 --> 00:23:00.877 probably wouldn't say it but you kind of wrote it for him was exactly right. 00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:04.317 Right. So, thank you. >> David collaborated with an amazing 00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:07.677 leader who we all respect and admire so 00:23:07.760 --> 00:23:10.157 much. Eric, 00:23:10.240 --> 00:23:15.197 >> yes. Uh, so nevertheless, >> saying I wrote it was was way too 00:23:15.280 --> 00:23:18.237 strong. I mean, actually, but anyway, >> if you didn't if you didn't write it, 00:23:18.320 --> 00:23:20.077 then it must have been your twin. But in 00:23:20.160 --> 00:23:23.517 any case, um the you got you got the 00:23:23.600 --> 00:23:28.237 emphasis right, which was that investment in research, investment in 00:23:28.320 --> 00:23:32.317 the kind of stuff that we do is really really important. 00:23:32.400 --> 00:23:36.477 I don't agree with you on this on this AGI thing because there's this group 00:23:36.560 --> 00:23:39.277 which I call the San Francisco um 00:23:39.360 --> 00:23:43.517 narrative because they all live in San Francisco and their narrative goes 00:23:43.600 --> 00:23:48.237 something like this. Um today we're doing agents. Uh the agentic revolution 00:23:48.320 --> 00:23:52.717 will change businesses which I agree with. Um that what happens is the 00:23:52.800 --> 00:23:56.877 systems will become recursively self-intelligent. 00:23:56.960 --> 00:24:01.597 With recursive self-improvement as it's called if you have a scale-free problem 00:24:01.680 --> 00:24:05.837 and a scale-free problem for example is programming or math where you can just 00:24:05.920 --> 00:24:08.557 keep doing it. You get these enormous 00:24:08.640 --> 00:24:13.117 fast gains if you buy enough hardware or do enough software so forth and so on. 00:24:13.200 --> 00:24:15.517 that is still underway. 00:24:15.600 --> 00:24:18.477 The collective of that says that in the 00:24:18.560 --> 00:24:21.517 next three-ish years they believe that 00:24:21.600 --> 00:24:24.237 we will get forms of super intelligence 00:24:24.320 --> 00:24:27.277 and the way they define it is basically 00:24:27.360 --> 00:24:30.157 a savant a chemist soant a physics soant 00:24:30.240 --> 00:24:34.397 a mathematician soant I don't agree with the three years but I do agree that 00:24:34.480 --> 00:24:39.037 it'll be maybe six or seven years >> but if it's a savant in you know a 00:24:39.120 --> 00:24:42.077 particular area is that general intelligence 00:24:42.160 --> 00:24:47.197 >> it's not general intelligence Yet, general intelligence is when it can set 00:24:47.280 --> 00:24:49.517 its own objective function. >> Right? 00:24:49.600 --> 00:24:51.117 >> And >> there's no evidence of that. 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:54.237 >> There's no evidence right now of the ability to set your own objective 00:24:54.320 --> 00:24:56.797 function. Um the the the thinking and 00:24:56.880 --> 00:24:58.717 I'm writing a paper on this so I've been 00:24:58.800 --> 00:25:01.837 studying it is that the the the 00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:06.797 technical problem is non-stationerity of mathematical proofs. And that what 00:25:06.880 --> 00:25:10.237 you're doing is you're trying to solve against objective function, but the 00:25:10.320 --> 00:25:14.317 objective function keeps changing, which is how humans operate. your goal changes 00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:15.997 every day. Whereas computers have 00:25:16.080 --> 00:25:18.557 trouble with that. As a math problem, we 00:25:18.640 --> 00:25:21.517 don't have an algorithm yet for LLMs 00:25:21.600 --> 00:25:23.437 that can do that. People are working on 00:25:23.520 --> 00:25:27.517 it. Um and the the test will be can you 00:25:27.600 --> 00:25:30.157 basically um using the information 00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:33.357 available in 1902, can you derive the 00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:35.037 same thing that Einstein did with 00:25:35.120 --> 00:25:37.277 special relativity followed by general 00:25:37.360 --> 00:25:40.797 relativity? We cannot do that today. Um 00:25:40.880 --> 00:25:43.677 and most people believe that the way 00:25:43.760 --> 00:25:46.237 this will be solved is through analogy. 00:25:46.320 --> 00:25:49.197 So the theory of great geniuses is that 00:25:49.280 --> 00:25:51.917 they understand one area extremely well 00:25:52.000 --> 00:25:54.877 and they're so brilliant the lady or man 00:25:54.960 --> 00:25:56.877 can then take their ideas and apply it 00:25:56.960 --> 00:26:00.157 to a completely different domain. If we 00:26:00.240 --> 00:26:02.717 can solve that problem then I think it's 00:26:02.800 --> 00:26:06.237 over. Then we get to AGI and then it's a 00:26:06.320 --> 00:26:07.917 whole different world. 00:26:08.000 --> 00:26:10.237 I think one of the reasons why it's hard 00:26:10.320 --> 00:26:14.317 to replace a human and you know JK and I 00:26:14.400 --> 00:26:18.637 debate this is that humans are end to end. You know we can do the whole job. 00:26:18.720 --> 00:26:21.357 You have sort of a complete understanding. You can pivot very 00:26:21.440 --> 00:26:25.677 easily. AI at least as we know it today is not end to end. It has to be 00:26:25.760 --> 00:26:29.517 prompted. You get an answer. That answer has to be validated. Then you have to 00:26:29.600 --> 00:26:32.477 ask a new question because it never gives you exactly what you want. You 00:26:32.560 --> 00:26:35.517 have to apply more context. You have to go through an iterative loop. Finally, 00:26:35.600 --> 00:26:39.997 you get to an answer that has business value. The way biology puts it is that 00:26:40.080 --> 00:26:41.917 AI is not endto end. It's middle to 00:26:42.000 --> 00:26:44.077 middle. Humans are endtoend. And so, as 00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:47.037 a result of that, instead of AI 00:26:47.120 --> 00:26:49.677 replacing all of us, AI will be very 00:26:49.760 --> 00:26:54.157 synergistic with humans because we can define the objective function. We do the 00:26:54.240 --> 00:26:58.237 prompting and we work with it to iterate and it does a lot of the work in the 00:26:58.320 --> 00:27:01.037 middle. Um, that seems to me like a very 00:27:01.120 --> 00:27:04.317 optimistic, less doomeristic take on it. 00:27:04.400 --> 00:27:08.717 What you just said is exactly what's going to happen for the next few years 00:27:08.800 --> 00:27:11.197 that each of us will have assistance 00:27:11.280 --> 00:27:13.677 which on our command and our prompting 00:27:13.760 --> 00:27:18.397 will be incredibly helpful to whatever problem we have you know personal uh you 00:27:18.480 --> 00:27:21.357 have people who are using these things for relationship advice for you know 00:27:21.440 --> 00:27:25.037 talking to their kids I mean it's all crazy stuff um but the fact of the 00:27:25.120 --> 00:27:29.437 matter is that's it the to me the real question is when does it cross over to 00:27:29.520 --> 00:27:33.437 having its own valition its own ability to seek information and solve new 00:27:33.520 --> 00:27:35.197 problems s that's a different animal. 00:27:35.280 --> 00:27:38.557 >> But have we seen any evidence of recursive self-improvement yet? 00:27:38.640 --> 00:27:41.597 >> Um, not yet. I'm I'm I've funded a 00:27:41.680 --> 00:27:45.837 number of startups which claim to be close to it, but of course these are 00:27:45.920 --> 00:27:50.557 startups and you never know, which tells me it's 5 10 years cutting numbers. 00:27:50.640 --> 00:27:52.797 >> What do you think Google's doing on this front? 00:27:52.880 --> 00:27:55.837 >> Um, well, I'm not at Google anymore. Um, 00:27:55.920 --> 00:27:58.877 every issue of Gemini is top of the 00:27:58.960 --> 00:28:02.237 leaderboard. So 2.5 just overcame 00:28:02.320 --> 00:28:06.797 everybody. and I'm sure there's another one coming. Um, Demis is working really 00:28:06.880 --> 00:28:08.797 hard on this question about um, 00:28:08.880 --> 00:28:11.757 scientific discovery. So, that's a p 00:28:11.840 --> 00:28:15.677 that is a path to getting to AGI. 00:28:15.760 --> 00:28:19.597 >> Eric, um, we appreciate the work you're doing. Uh, we appreciate you being here 00:28:19.680 --> 00:28:23.357 with us. We appreciate what you've done, the impact you've had on Silicon Valley, 00:28:23.440 --> 00:28:26.957 uh, as society. Yeah. No, but it's it's really been 00:28:27.040 --> 00:28:31.277 >> I am so happy to be part of this. You created this incredible community and 00:28:31.360 --> 00:28:36.037 there's all of these smart people that spend all their time listening to you. 00:28:36.120 --> 00:28:40.680 [laughter] >> Very concerning. 00:28:40.800 --> 00:28:44.600 >> Wow. Eric. 00:28:45.940 --> 00:28:47.960 [music] 00:28:49.840 --> 00:28:51.757 Thanks, Eric. Appreciate you. Cheers. 00:28:51.840 --> 00:28:56.200 [music] All right.