WEBVTT 00:00:02.420 --> 00:00:06.206 Hawaii braces for potential flooding as Hurricane Nolo approaches. 00:00:06.290 --> 00:00:09.431 At the same time, a powerful nor'easter gains strength, 00:00:09.514 --> 00:00:13.593 threatening dangerous conditions through the weekend. I'm Aisha Roscoe. 00:00:13.677 --> 00:00:16.960 And I'm Scott Simon, and this is Up First from NPR News. 00:00:17.370 --> 00:00:22.399 So what can we expect from these two sets of storms? We'll have the latest. 00:00:22.482 --> 00:00:26.966 Also, the U.S. Supreme Court rejects Missouri's congressional maps. 00:00:27.050 --> 00:00:31.874 Again, we'll tell you what this means for this year's midterm elections. 00:00:31.958 --> 00:00:36.646 And the average 30-year home mortgage rate climbed above 7% this week. 00:00:36.729 --> 00:00:40.122 We'll tell you what's driving high borrowing costs. 00:00:40.206 --> 00:00:45.250 So please stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend. 00:00:46.710 --> 00:00:51.150 *music* 00:00:53.460 --> 00:00:56.998 It's a weekend of wild weather in different parts of the country. 00:00:57.081 --> 00:01:01.064 In Hawaii, Hurricane Nolo approaches the fourth storm to impact the state 00:01:01.148 --> 00:01:05.577 this year. At the same time, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions are hunkering 00:01:05.660 --> 00:01:09.755 down for a powerful storm that could bring heavy flooding and strong winds. 00:01:09.838 --> 00:01:13.822 NPR's Ava Berger has been covering this extreme weather and joins us now. 00:01:13.905 --> 00:01:18.334 Thanks for being with us. Hi, Scott. What can people expect from this nor'easter? 00:01:18.418 --> 00:01:22.540 So millions of people across the East Coast are in the path of this storm. 00:01:23.460 --> 00:01:27.678 seeing these videos of huge waves crashing against the coastlines in New Jersey. 00:01:27.761 --> 00:01:31.656 It's flooding streets. We've seen big numbers of flights being canceled in 00:01:31.740 --> 00:01:33.914 the region. There's already power outages. 00:01:33.998 --> 00:01:38.216 Francis Tarazowicz is a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Boston. 00:01:38.299 --> 00:01:42.600 He's expecting coastal flooding, heavy rain, and really high winds this weekend. 00:01:43.080 --> 00:01:46.740 Wind gusts along the coast will be between 50 and 60 miles per hour, 00:01:46.823 --> 00:01:50.647 paired with those fully leaved trees as we are still in late September. 00:01:50.731 --> 00:01:54.996 We may see some instances of power outages across much of southern New England. 00:01:55.079 --> 00:01:58.849 And we'll see impacts got from the mid-Atlantic all the way up through 00:01:58.932 --> 00:02:02.977 the coast of Maine. He said the worst of the storm is expected to hit areas 00:02:03.060 --> 00:02:05.344 in Massachusetts, Long Island, Connecticut. 00:02:05.427 --> 00:02:09.500 Is it unusual to have a nor'easter in September? It is unusual, but it has 00:02:13.080 --> 00:02:16.644 Roswitz pointed out. Really, the unique feature of it is that it's A, 00:02:16.727 --> 00:02:19.710 long duration, and then B, it's quite early in the season. 00:02:19.793 --> 00:02:23.516 So the storm is expected to last straight through the weekend, 48 hours, 00:02:23.600 --> 00:02:27.164 but we're actually not that far away from a normal nor'easter season, 00:02:27.247 --> 00:02:28.780 which is October through May. 00:02:29.370 --> 00:02:33.804 And at the same time, out in the Pacific, we're seeing hurricanes near Hawaii. 00:02:33.887 --> 00:02:38.321 What's happening there? Scientists are saying that these hurricanes are likely 00:02:38.404 --> 00:02:40.753 due to a powerful El Nino climate pattern. 00:02:40.836 --> 00:02:44.807 You may have heard it be called a super El Nino. This natural pattern, 00:02:44.890 --> 00:02:49.440 it occurs every few years. It tends to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic while 00:02:49.523 --> 00:02:53.609 fueling more storms in the Pacific. Hawaii is bearing the brunt of this. 00:02:53.693 --> 00:02:58.300 And forecasters are saying that the Big Island could see up to 16 inches of rain. 00:02:58.383 --> 00:03:02.931 And why is that? So the El Nino makes the water in the eastern Pacific really hot. 00:03:03.015 --> 00:03:07.305 That warmer water can fuel hurricanes and turn them into these really powerful 00:03:07.388 --> 00:03:11.566 storms. Paul Roundy studies atmospheric science at the University at Albany. 00:03:11.649 --> 00:03:15.547 He says even scientists have been surprised at how big this El Nino is. 00:03:15.631 --> 00:03:18.743 I have heard some sense of shock. I think, for one thing, 00:03:18.827 --> 00:03:23.061 people didn't really quite comprehend how strong this El Nino event was going 00:03:23.144 --> 00:03:26.313 to get. So far, there's been 18 hurricanes in the Pacific. 00:03:26.396 --> 00:03:27.910 That's higher than average. 00:03:29.370 --> 00:03:33.715 season will continue through the end of November. And at the same time, 00:03:33.798 --> 00:03:38.018 I gather there's also Hurricane Polo off of the coast of Mexico. Yes, 00:03:38.102 --> 00:03:42.010 and Polo is notable because of how insanely fast it intensified. 00:03:42.093 --> 00:03:46.937 In less than 24 hours, it went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane. 00:03:47.021 --> 00:03:50.555 Gabriel Vecchi studies hurricanes at Princeton University. 00:03:50.638 --> 00:03:55.690 He said in his research, he's never seen anything like it. I don't have any idea. 00:03:55.890 --> 00:03:59.860 other hurricane that has increased in intensity as rapidly as Polo. 00:03:59.943 --> 00:04:04.518 And we're going to see Hurricane Polo through the weekend and into early next 00:04:04.602 --> 00:04:09.479 week. It could bring heavy rainfall late Sunday into Monday in the Baja California 00:04:09.563 --> 00:04:10.470 Peninsula area. 00:04:11.220 --> 00:04:14.588 At the same time, I haven't heard much about Atlantic hurricanes. 00:04:14.671 --> 00:04:17.455 That's because it's totally different in the Atlantic, 00:04:17.538 --> 00:04:21.861 especially during an El Nino. There have actually been no full-blown hurricanes yet 00:04:21.945 --> 00:04:26.055 this season in the Atlantic. That's the first time that's happened in more than 00:04:26.139 --> 00:04:29.825 a century. And during El Nino years, there's usually more wind shear in 00:04:29.908 --> 00:04:34.072 the Atlantic. So that's a change in wind speed and direction that can tear apart 00:04:34.156 --> 00:04:36.120 storms before they get more powerful. 00:04:36.270 --> 00:04:40.101 And is there a connection between the big El Nino we're experiencing in 00:04:40.185 --> 00:04:44.016 this nor'easter? The El Nino's effect on hurricanes is well understood, 00:04:44.099 --> 00:04:48.041 but we don't know as much, Scott, about how it could affect a nor'easter. 00:04:48.124 --> 00:04:52.011 Vecchi told me that he's not sure if there's a connection with these two 00:04:52.094 --> 00:04:56.201 storms, but an El Nino this big is probably impacting weather events in some 00:04:56.285 --> 00:04:58.490 way across the Pacific and the Atlantic. 00:04:58.920 --> 00:05:02.120 And Parzeva Berker, thanks so much for being with us. Thank you. 00:05:08.640 --> 00:05:12.866 The battle for control of Congress took a turn in Missouri again. Last night, 00:05:12.950 --> 00:05:17.176 the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a new congressional map that favored Missouri 00:05:17.259 --> 00:05:21.653 Republicans. It is the third time the Supreme Court has told the state it cannot 00:05:21.737 --> 00:05:25.627 use the new map. The decision could provide a small boost for Democrats 00:05:25.711 --> 00:05:29.153 as they seek to regain control of the House of Representatives. 00:05:29.237 --> 00:05:33.799 Jason Rosenbaum of St. Louis Public Radio has been covering this story and joins us 00:05:33.882 --> 00:05:37.800 now. Thanks for being with us, Jason. Thank you so much for having me. 00:05:38.640 --> 00:05:43.082 Republicans had targeted one particular congressional seat currently held by 00:05:43.165 --> 00:05:46.892 a Democrat. Tell us about the district and what will happen now. 00:05:46.975 --> 00:05:51.119 So Republicans targeted Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas 00:05:51.203 --> 00:05:55.763 City-based district. They split the heavily Democratic city into three largely 00:05:55.847 --> 00:05:59.693 rural districts, imperiling Cleaver's ability to win another term. 00:05:59.776 --> 00:06:04.337 The Supreme Court blocked that because citizens had gathered petitions to make 00:06:04.420 --> 00:06:07.040 the redistricting subject to voter approval. 00:06:08.640 --> 00:06:12.965 until November 3rd, so the map can't be used in this election. 00:06:13.048 --> 00:06:18.369 Cleaver told me he was grateful that Missourians went through the referendum 00:06:18.452 --> 00:06:23.702 process. The joy, I think, now is generated by the fact that the people won 00:06:23.785 --> 00:06:29.533 this battle. And now Cleaver is the heavy favorite to win re-election in November. 00:06:29.616 --> 00:06:33.740 And Jason, where does this leave redistricting nationally? 00:06:38.640 --> 00:06:43.455 it's done at the start of the decade. And with Texas and Florida and other states 00:06:43.538 --> 00:06:48.353 doing it, Republicans ended up with about nine more seats tilted their way across 00:06:48.436 --> 00:06:52.646 the country than Democrats. Without Missouri, it's down to eight seats. 00:06:52.730 --> 00:06:57.303 But of course, it'll still come down to how people actually vote in all those 00:06:57.386 --> 00:06:59.903 districts and hundreds more across the U.S. 00:06:59.986 --> 00:07:04.680 Republicans barely have a majority in the House. Every seat could be important. 00:07:04.764 --> 00:07:06.880 And as I understand it, some voters 00:07:08.640 --> 00:07:12.329 for the November election than they were for the primaries. 00:07:12.412 --> 00:07:15.846 How did that happen? The Republican Secretary of State, 00:07:15.929 --> 00:07:20.385 Denny Hoskins, instructed that the GOP map must be used in the primary. 00:07:20.469 --> 00:07:25.436 He knew there was a petition initiative giving voters a say over whether to use 00:07:25.520 --> 00:07:30.360 it, but he decided very late in the process that citizens' initiatives do not 00:07:30.443 --> 00:07:34.899 apply to redistricting. So that's the map that was used in the primary, 00:07:34.983 --> 00:07:37.860 but the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that was 00:07:38.640 --> 00:07:41.502 and said that map was never in effect. The U.S. 00:07:41.585 --> 00:07:46.327 Supreme Court declined to intervene on that decision twice in the last month, 00:07:46.411 --> 00:07:51.341 and that led election officials to plan on the old map used in 2022 and 2024 for 00:07:51.424 --> 00:07:55.915 the November elections. But Republicans challenged that in federal court, 00:07:55.999 --> 00:08:00.678 which ruled in their favor, and that's how it got to the U.S. Supreme Court, 00:08:00.761 --> 00:08:03.749 though very late in the process. And now the U.S. 00:08:03.832 --> 00:08:06.840 Supreme Court has ruled in this conflict between 00:08:08.640 --> 00:08:10.680 Was the election in Missouri on track? 00:08:10.860 --> 00:08:15.699 Yes, the U.S. Supreme Court said it's too late to go back to the Republican-drawn 00:08:15.782 --> 00:08:18.494 map. They said it would cause electoral chaos, 00:08:18.577 --> 00:08:21.714 and the state should stick with the map used in 2024, 00:08:21.797 --> 00:08:24.631 even though it's different from the primary map. 00:08:24.714 --> 00:08:28.641 Local officials like Breonna Lennon, county clerk in Boone County, 00:08:28.725 --> 00:08:31.801 and that's home to Columbia, Missouri, are relieved. 00:08:31.884 --> 00:08:36.320 She said they'd already sent out thousands of absentee ballots to voters. 00:08:40.860 --> 00:08:45.684 had been in my body that is now relieved. The fact that we can now confidently tell 00:08:45.767 --> 00:08:48.226 absentee voters that their vote will count, 00:08:48.309 --> 00:08:51.123 they can be confident that their vote will count, 00:08:51.206 --> 00:08:54.788 and that the ballots are not going to change is a huge relief. 00:08:54.871 --> 00:08:59.660 So election officials and Missouri voters have some finality going into November. 00:09:00.090 --> 00:09:03.950 Jason Rosenbaum with St. Louis Public Radio. Thanks so much. Thank you. 00:09:12.150 --> 00:09:14.854 Perspective homeowners are feeling the squeeze. 00:09:14.937 --> 00:09:18.887 The average rate on a 30-year home mortgage rose above 7% this week. 00:09:18.970 --> 00:09:23.157 That's the highest it's been since President Trump returned to the White 00:09:23.240 --> 00:09:27.664 House. And this comes at the same time that fuel and grocery prices continue 00:09:27.747 --> 00:09:31.341 to climb, and it's not just consumers that are under pressure. 00:09:31.424 --> 00:09:34.484 Borrowing costs for the government are also going up. 00:09:34.567 --> 00:09:38.161 NPR's Scott Horsley joins us. Scott, thanks for being with us. 00:09:38.244 --> 00:09:39.430 Good morning, Scott. 00:09:42.150 --> 00:09:46.273 make it worse. It certainly doesn't help. If you go back to February, 00:09:46.356 --> 00:09:50.601 just before the Iran war began, the average rate on a 30-year home loan 00:09:50.684 --> 00:09:55.600 briefly dipped below 6%. And people were beginning to think this might be the year 00:09:55.683 --> 00:09:59.927 we'd see a rebound in the housing market. Instead, rates have moved in 00:10:00.010 --> 00:10:03.802 opposite direction. And economist Anthony Smith, who's with Realtor.com, 00:10:03.885 --> 00:10:07.945 says that just makes it more expensive for anyone who's trying to buy a home. 00:10:08.029 --> 00:10:12.520 There is definitely a psychological weight when you start getting into that 7% range. 00:10:12.603 --> 00:10:16.718 It's hard to adjust to, especially when this is typically the best time to buy 00:10:16.801 --> 00:10:21.077 during those fall to winter months. We've just come through the spring and summer 00:10:21.160 --> 00:10:23.714 home buying season, which was pretty much a bust. 00:10:23.797 --> 00:10:25.950 Home sales in August were the slowest in 00:10:30.010 --> 00:10:32.655 things like furniture and appliances. And, Scott, 00:10:32.738 --> 00:10:35.410 how are the 7% mortgage rates affecting sellers? 00:10:36.010 --> 00:10:39.261 You know, high interest rates aren't great for sellers either. 00:10:39.344 --> 00:10:41.735 They are not cutting prices for the most part. 00:10:41.818 --> 00:10:45.016 Home prices have been climbing for more than three years now. 00:10:45.099 --> 00:10:49.318 But about half the homeowners who have a mortgage themselves are paying interest 00:10:49.401 --> 00:10:53.513 rates of less than 4%. And Smith says they're not eager to trade that for a 7% 00:10:53.596 --> 00:10:57.630 loan, so many are just staying put, even if they would really like to move. 00:11:06.010 --> 00:11:10.143 meeting at home a little bit longer. Even though a lot of current homeowners feel 00:11:10.226 --> 00:11:14.046 stuck, for the limited number of buyers, there are more homes on the market 00:11:14.130 --> 00:11:18.315 to choose from. That could put buyers in a stronger bargaining position if they're 00:11:18.398 --> 00:11:22.322 able to stomach these 7% mortgage rates. And what's caused the mortgage rates 00:11:22.406 --> 00:11:26.174 to climb up so much? Mortgages are typically pegged to the rate on 10-year 00:11:26.258 --> 00:11:29.870 government bonds, and that 10-year treasury yield has jumped sharply in 00:11:29.953 --> 00:11:30.890 the last couple of 00:11:36.010 --> 00:11:40.013 more than two decades. And the reasons for that are kind of a good news, 00:11:40.097 --> 00:11:43.930 bad news story. The good news is even with these high rates, the U.S. 00:11:44.013 --> 00:11:48.073 economy has been resilient. Unemployment's low. Retail spending is solid. 00:11:48.156 --> 00:11:51.932 Big tech companies are still shoveling tons of money into artificial 00:11:52.016 --> 00:11:56.530 intelligence. The bad news is the Federal Reserve may have to tap the brakes even 00:11:56.613 --> 00:12:00.900 harder and raise interest rates even higher to bring inflation under control. 00:12:00.983 --> 00:12:02.970 Here's the way Fed Governor Michael 00:12:06.010 --> 00:12:08.730 is strong and the labor market is solid. 00:12:08.830 --> 00:12:12.010 But inflation is above our 2% target. 00:12:12.160 --> 00:12:14.953 and not clearly trending toward target in a timely way. 00:12:15.036 --> 00:12:17.986 Part of the challenge is the hottest parts of the economy, 00:12:18.069 --> 00:12:21.908 like the booming AI sector, are pretty much immune to these higher interest 00:12:21.991 --> 00:12:25.202 rates. It's the weaker parts, like housing, that get clobbered. 00:12:25.286 --> 00:12:28.580 And it looks like beatings will continue until morale improves. 00:12:28.990 --> 00:12:31.708 And why is more else a week if the economy is okay? 00:12:31.792 --> 00:12:36.048 Because the cost of living is still high. It's going up faster than the average 00:12:36.131 --> 00:12:40.498 worker's paycheck, and rising interest rates just make things even more expensive 00:12:40.581 --> 00:12:43.904 for anyone who has to borrow money. And, Pierre Scott Horsley, 00:12:43.987 --> 00:12:45.690 thanks so much. You're welcome. 00:12:50.150 --> 00:12:55.097 And that's up first for Saturday, September 26, 2026. I'm Scott Simon. 00:12:55.181 --> 00:12:56.690 And I'm Aisha Roscoe. 00:12:58.990 --> 00:13:03.000 from Chris Harlan-Dunaway, Martin Patience, and Gabe O'Connor. 00:13:03.083 --> 00:13:07.819 Our editor has been Fernando Naro, along with Deepar Vaz, Sadie Babbitts, 00:13:07.903 --> 00:13:11.715 Rebecca Rossman, and Scott Hensley, Elena Quarek, director. 00:13:11.798 --> 00:13:16.402 Our technical director is David Greenberg, assisted by Zoe Vangenhoven, 00:13:16.485 --> 00:13:18.707 Simon Laszlo-Jansen, and Jay Sizz. 00:13:18.790 --> 00:13:21.908 Our deputy managing editor is Catherine Laidlaw. 00:13:21.992 --> 00:13:27.378 Our executive producer is E.B. Stone. And Shannon Rhodes is our senior supervising 00:13:27.461 --> 00:13:32.313 editor. Tomorrow on the Sunday Story, a growing number of Democratic Party 00:13:32.397 --> 00:13:36.048 congressional candidates are also members of the clergy. 00:13:36.132 --> 00:13:41.051 So how is that affecting the party? Thanks for listening and for supporting 00:13:41.134 --> 00:13:46.070 your local NPR station. If you need to find yours, go to stations.npr.org. 00:13:48.790 --> 00:13:50.850 you 00:13:53.350 --> 00:13:54.183 Thank you.